Microclim: Global estimates of hourly microclimate based on long-term monthly climate averages.

PubMed

Kearney, Michael R; Isaac, Andrew P; Porter, Warren P

2014-01-01

The mechanistic links between climate and the environmental sensitivities of organisms occur through the microclimatic conditions that organisms experience. Here we present a dataset of gridded hourly estimates of typical microclimatic conditions (air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, sky radiation and substrate temperatures from the surface to 1 m depth) at high resolution (~15 km) for the globe. The estimates are for the middle day of each month, based on long-term average macroclimates, and include six shade levels and three generic substrates (soil, rock and sand) per pixel. These data are suitable for deriving biophysical estimates of the heat, water and activity budgets of terrestrial organisms.

Long-term-average, solar cycle, and seasonal response of magnetospheric energetic electrons to the solar wind speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vassiliadis, D.; Klimas, A. J.; Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.; Weigel, R. S.

2002-11-01

Among the interplanetary activity parameters the solar wind speed is the one best correlated with the energetic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere. We examine the radial and temporal characteristics of the 2-6 MeV electron response, approximating it in this paper with linear filters. The filter response is parameterized by the time delay (τ), measured from the time of solar wind impact, and the L shell (L). We examine solar cycle and seasonal effects using an 8-year-long database of Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX)/ Proton Electron Telescope (PET) measurements at the radial range L = 1.1-10. The main peak P1 of the long-term-average response is at (τ, L) = (2, 5.3) and has a simultaneous response over a wide range of radial distances, ΔL = 5. The duration of the response after the peak is inversely proportional to the L shell. The central part of the inner magnetosphere (L = 3.7-5.75) has a much more prolonged response (>10 days) than other parts. Prior to the main response, P1, a brief response, P0, of typically lower amplitude appears at (τ, L) = (0, 3), probably as a quasi-adiabatic response to the compression of the magnetosphere by the solar wind pressure. Over the solar cycle the variation in solar wind input results in a systematic change of the position, amplitude, radial extent, and duration of the two peaks: during solar wind minimum the quasi-adiabatic peak disappears, and the radial size of the responding region decreases; both are responses to low-density, high-speed streams. During solar minimum, the duration is at least 3 days (30%) longer than average, probably due to the sustained solar wind input. Systematic variations appear also as a function of season due to several magnetic and fluid effects. During equinoxes the coupling is stronger, and the duration is longer (by at least 2 days) compared to solstices. Between the two equinoxes the fall response has a significantly higher amplitude and longer duration than the spring equinox response. This is at least partly due to the higher GSE By component during the observation time, which acts to increase the effective GSM Bz component according to the Russell-McPherron effect. The seasonal modulation of the response is consistent with the variation in the fluxes themselves [, 1999]. The modulation is discussed in terms of the equinoctial and axial hypotheses [, 1970; , 1973; , 2000].

Basic Features of Global Circulation in the Mesopause Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Portnyagin, Y. I.

1984-01-01

D1 and D2 techniques have been used and are being used for observations at stations located in the high, middle, and low latitudes of both hemispheres. The systematical and wind velocity measurements with these techniques make it possible to specify and to refine earlier mesopause-lower thermosphere circulation models. With this in view, an effort was made to obtain global long term average height-latitude sections of the wind field at 70 to 110 km using the analysis of long period D1 and D2 observations. Data from 26 meteor radar and 6 ionospheric stations were taken for analysis.

Seasonal and Interannual Variation of Currents and Water Properties off the Mid-East Coast of Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. H.; Chang, K. I.; Nam, S.

2016-02-01

Since 1999, physical parameters such as current, temperature, and salinity off the mid-east coast of Korea have been continuously observed from the long-term buoy station called `East-Sea Real-time Ocean monitoring Buoy (ESROB)'. Applying harmonic analysis to 6-year-long (2007-2012) depth-averaged current data from the ESROB, a mean seasonal cycle of alongshore currents, characterized by poleward current in average and equatorward current in summer, is extracted which accounts for 5.8% of the variance of 40 hours low-pass filtered currents. In spite of the small variance explained, a robust seasonality of summertime equatorward reversal typifies the low-passed alongshore currents along with low-density water. To reveal the dynamics underlying the seasonal variation, each term of linearized, depth-averaged momentum equations is estimated using the data from ESROB, adjacent tide gauge stations, and serial hydrographic stations. The result indicates that the reversal of alongshore pressure gradient is a major driver of the equatorward reversals in summer. The reanalysis wind product (MERRA) and satellite altimeter-derived sea surface height (AVISO) data show correlated features between positive (negative) wind stress curl and sea surface depression (uplift). Quantitative estimates reveal that the wind-stress curl accounts for 42% of alongshore sea level variation. Summertime low-density water originating from the northern coastal region is a footprint of the buoyancy-driven equatorward current. An interannual variation (anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle) of alongshore currents and its possible driving mechanisms will be discussed.

Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

2018-04-01

We give the results of parameter fitting of the magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft for the three-year period 2013 to the end of 2015 (called the "Present" period) using the MC model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga ( J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990). The Present period is almost coincident with the solar maximum of the sunspot number, which has a broad peak starting in about 2012 and extending to almost 2015. There were 49 MCs identified in the Present period. The modeling gives MC quantities such as size, axial attitude, field handedness, axial magnetic-field strength, center time, and closest-approach vector. Derived quantities are also estimated, such as axial magnetic flux, axial current density, and total axial current. Quality estimates are assigned representing excellent, fair/good, and poor. We provide error estimates on the specific fit parameters for the individual MCs, where the poor cases are excluded. Model-fitting results that are based on the Present period are compared to the results of the full Wind mission from 1995 to the end of 2015 (Long-term period), and compared to the results of two other recent studies that encompassed the periods 2007 - 2009 and 2010 - 2012, inclusive. We see that during the Present period, the MCs are, on average, slightly slower, slightly weaker in axial magnetic field (by 8.7%), and larger in diameter (by 6.5%) than those in the Long-term period. However, in most respects, the MCs in the Present period are significantly closer in characteristics to those of the Long-term period than to those of the two recent three-year periods. However, the rate of occurrence of MCs for the Long-term period is 10.3 year^{-1}, whereas this rate for the Present period is 16.3 year^{-1}, similar to that of the period 2010 - 2012. Hence, the MC occurrence rate has increased appreciably in the last six years. MC Type (N-S, S-N, All N, All S, etc.) is assigned to each MC; there is an inordinately large percentage of All S, by about a factor of two compared to that of the Long-term period, indicating many strongly tipped MCs. In 2005, there was a distinct change in variability and average value (viewed at 1/2 year averages) of the duration, MC speed, axial magnetic field strength, axial magnetic flux, and total current to lower values. In the Present period, upstream shocks occur for 43% of the 49 cases; for comparison, the Long-term rate is 56%.

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, Volume 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sechrist, C. F., Jr. (Editor)

1982-01-01

The variability of the stratosphere during the winter in the Northern Hemisphere is considered. Long term monthly mean 30-mbar maps are presented that include geopotential heights, temperatures, and standard deviations of 15 year averages. Latitudinal profiles of mean zonal winds and temperatures are given along with meridional time sections of derived quantities for the winters 1965/66 to 1980/81.

Acyclic High-Energy Variability in Eta Carinae and WR 140

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Corcoran, Michael F.

2012-01-01

Eta Carinae and WR 140 are similar long-period colliding wind binaries in which X-ray emission is produced by a strong shock due to the collision of the powerful stellar winds. The change in the orientation and density of this shock as the stars revolve in their orbits influences the X-ray flux and spectrum in a phase dependent way. Monitoring observations with RXTE and other X-ray satellite observatories since the 1990s have detailed this variability but have also shown significant deviations from strict phase dependence (short-term brightness changes or "flares", and cyc1e-to-cyc1e average flux differences). We examine these acylic variations in Eta Car and WR 140 and discuss what they tell us about the stability of the wind-wind collision shock.

Multi-decadal Variability of the Wind Power Output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirchner Bossi, Nicolas; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Prieto, Luis; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2014-05-01

The knowledge of the long-term wind power variability is essential to provide a realistic outlook on the power output during the lifetime of a planned wind power project. In this work, the Power Output (Po) of a market wind turbine is simulated with a daily resolution for the period 1871-2009 at two different locations in Spain, one at the Central Iberian Plateau and another at the Gibraltar Strait Area. This is attained through a statistical downscaling of the daily wind conditions. It implements a Greedy Algorithm as classificator of a geostrophic-based wind predictor, which is derived by considering the SLP daily field from the 56 ensemble members of the longest homogeneous reanalysis available (20CR, 1871-2009). For calibration and validation purposes we use 10 years of wind observations (the predictand) at both sites. As a result, a series of 139 annual wind speed Probability Density Functions (PDF) are obtained, with a good performance in terms of wind speed uncertainty reduction (average daily wind speed MAE=1.48 m/s). The obtained centennial series allow to investigate the multi-decadal variability of wind power from different points of view. Significant periodicities around the 25-yr frequency band, as well as long-term linear trends are detected at both locations. In addition, a negative correlation is found between annual Po at both locations, evidencing the differences in the dynamical mechanisms ruling them (and possible complementary behavior). Furthermore, the impact that the three leading large-scale circulation patterns over Iberia (NAO, EA and SCAND) exert over wind power output is evaluated. Results show distinct (and non-stationary) couplings to these forcings depending on the geographical position and season or month. Moreover, significant non-stationary correlations are observed with the slow varying Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index for both case studies. Finally, an empirical relationship is explored between the annual Po and the parameters of the Weibull PDF. This allowed us to derive a linear model to estimate the annual power output from those parameters, which results especially useful when no wind power data is available.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J.; DeForest, Craig E.

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship,more » we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.« less

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2008-01-01

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Post World War II trends in tropical Pacific surface trades

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harrison, D. E.

1989-01-01

Multidecadal time series of surface winds from central tropical Pacific islands are used to compute trends in the trade winds between the end of WWII and 1985. Over this period, averaged over the whole region, there is no statistically significant trend in speed or zonal or meridional wind (or pseudostress). However, there is some tendency, within a few degrees of the equator, toward weakening of the easterlies and increased meridional flow toward the equator. Anomalous conditions subsequent to the 1972-73 ENSO event make a considerable contribution to the long-term trends. The period 1974-80 has been noted previously to have been anomalous, and trends over that period are sharply greater than those over the longer records.

Dynamical downscaling of wind fields for wind power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Huneke, S.; Geyer, J.

2010-09-01

Dynamical downscaling of wind fields for wind power applications H.-T. Mengelkamp*,**, S. Huneke**, J, Geyer** *GKSS Research Center Geesthacht GmbH **anemos Gesellschaft für Umweltmeteorologie mbH Investments in wind power require information on the long-term mean wind potential and its temporal variations on daily to annual and decadal time scales. This information is rarely available at specific wind farm sites. Short-term on-site measurements usually are only performed over a 12 months period. These data have to be set into the long-term perspective through correlation to long-term consistent wind data sets. Preliminary wind information is often asked for to select favourable wind sites over regional and country wide scales. Lack of high-quality wind measurements at weather stations was the motivation to start high resolution wind field simulations The simulations are basically a refinement of global scale reanalysis data by means of high resolution simulations with an atmospheric mesoscale model using high-resolution terrain and land-use data. The 3-dimensional representation of the atmospheric state available every six hours at 2.5 degree resolution over the globe, known as NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data, forms the boundary conditions for continuous simulations with the non-hydrostatic atmospheric mesoscale model MM5. MM5 is nested in itself down to a horizontal resolution of 5 x 5 km². The simulation is performed for different European countries and covers the period 2000 to present and is continuously updated. Model variables are stored every 10 minutes for various heights. We have analysed the wind field primarily. The wind data set is consistent in space and time and provides information on the regional distribution of the long-term mean wind potential, the temporal variability of the wind potential, the vertical variation of the wind potential, and the temperature, and pressure distribution (air density). In the context of wind power these data are used • as an initial estimate of wind and energy potential • for the long-term correlation of wind measurements and turbine production data • to provide wind potential maps on a regional to country wide scale • to provide input data sets for simulation models • to determine the spatial correlation of the wind field in portfolio calculations • to calculate the wind turbine energy loss during prescribed downtimes • to provide information on the temporal variations of the wind and wind turbine energy production The time series of wind speed and wind direction are compared to measurements at offshore and onshore locations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy usedmore » to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.« less

Design and Operation of Power Systems with Large Amounts of Wind Power: Final Summary Report, IEA WIND Task 25, Phase Three 2012-2014

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Holttinen, Hannele; Kiviluoma, Juha; Forcione, Alain

2016-06-01

This report summarizes recent findings on wind integration from the 16 countries participating in the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind collaboration research Task 25 in 2012-2014. Both real experience and studies are reported. The national case studies address several impacts of wind power on electric power systems. In this report, they are grouped under long-term planning issues and short-term operational impacts. Long-term planning issues include grid planning and capacity adequacy. Short-term operational impacts include reliability, stability, reserves, and maximizing the value in operational timescales (balancing related issues). The first section presents variability and uncertainty of power system-wide wind power, andmore » the last section presents recent wind integration studies for higher shares of wind power. Appendix 1 provides a summary of ongoing research in the national projects contributing to Task 25 in 2015-2017.« less

In-situ erosion of cohesive sediment in a large shallow lake experiencing long-term decline in wind speed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Tingfeng; Timo, Huttula; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Janne, Ropponen; Yan, Wenming

2016-08-01

In order to address the major factors affecting cohesive sediment erosion using high-frequency in-situ observations in Lake Taihu, and the response of this erosion to long-term decline in wind speed, high-frequency meteorological, hydrological and turbidity sensors were deployed to record continuous field wind-induced wave, current and sediment erosion processes; Statistical analyses and mathematic modeling spanning 44 years were also conducted. The results revealed that the unconsolidated surficial cohesive sediment frequently experiences the processes of erosion, suspension and deposition. Wind waves, generated by the absorption of wind energy, are the principal force driving this cycle. When the wavelength-to-water depth ratio (L/D) is 2-3, wave propagation is affected by lakebed friction and surface erosion occurs. When L/D > 3, the interaction between wave and lakebed increases to induce massive erosion. However, influenced by rapid urbanization in the Lake Taihu basin, wind speed has significantly decreased, by an average rate of -0.022 m s-1 a-1, from 1970 to 2013. This has reduced the erodible area, represented by simulated L/D, at a rate of -16.9 km2 a-1 in the autumn and winter, and -8.1 km2 a-1 in the spring and summer. This significant decrease in surface erosion area, and the near disappearance of areas experiencing massive erosion, imply that Lake Taihu has become calmer, which can be expected to have adverse effects on the lake ecosystem by increasing eutrophication and nuisance cyanobacteria blooms.

Effects of Regional Climate Change on the Wave Conditions in the Western Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreier, N.; Fröhle, P.

2017-12-01

The local wave climate in the Western Baltic Sea is mainly generated by the local wind field over the area. Long-term changes of the local wind conditions that are induced e.g. by regional climate change, directly affect the local wave climate and other local wind driven coastal processes like e.g. the longshore sediment transport. The changes of the local wave climate play an important role for the safe functional and structural design of new, or the adaption of existing, coastal protection structures as well as for the assessment of long-term morphological changes of the coastline. In this study, the wave model SWAN is used for the calculation of hourly wave conditions in the Western Baltic Sea between 1960 and 2100. Future wind conditions from two regional climate models (Cosmo-CLM and REMO) that have been forced by different future greenhouse gas emission scenarios used within AR4 (A1B, B1) and AR5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of IPCC are used as input for the wave model. The changes of the average wave conditions are analyzed from comparisons between the 30 years averages for the future (e.g. 2071-2100) and the reference period 1971-2000. Regarding the emission scenarios A1B and B1, a significant change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height at westerly wind exposed locations with predominant higher values up to +10% is found (cf. Fig. 1). In contrast, the change of the 30 years averages of significant wave height is more weak at easterly wind exposed locations, resulting in higher and lower values between -5% to +5%. Moreover, more wave events from W-NW and fewer events from N-NE can be expected, due to changes of the frequency of occurrence of the 30 years averages of mean wave direction. The changes of extreme wave heights are analyzed based on methods of extreme value analysis and the time series of wave parameters at selected locations nearby the German Baltic Sea coast. No robust changes of the significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years are found for the emission scenarios A1B and B1. Both increases and decreases of the extreme wave heights are possible within a range of -18% to +18% (-0.5m to +0.5m). In the presentation, we will show results from the assessment of the changes of the wave conditions for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and discuss possible impacts for the German Baltic Sea coast.

The Gaussian atmospheric transport model and its sensitivity to the joint frequency distribution and parametric variability.

PubMed

Hamby, D M

2002-01-01

Reconstructed meteorological data are often used in some form of long-term wind trajectory models for estimating the historical impacts of atmospheric emissions. Meteorological data for the straight-line Gaussian plume model are put into a joint frequency distribution, a three-dimensional array describing atmospheric wind direction, speed, and stability. Methods using the Gaussian model and joint frequency distribution inputs provide reasonable estimates of downwind concentration and have been shown to be accurate to within a factor of four. We have used multiple joint frequency distributions and probabilistic techniques to assess the Gaussian plume model and determine concentration-estimate uncertainty and model sensitivity. We examine the straight-line Gaussian model while calculating both sector-averaged and annual-averaged relative concentrations at various downwind distances. The sector-average concentration model was found to be most sensitive to wind speed, followed by horizontal dispersion (sigmaZ), the importance of which increases as stability increases. The Gaussian model is not sensitive to stack height uncertainty. Precision of the frequency data appears to be most important to meteorological inputs when calculations are made for near-field receptors, increasing as stack height increases.

On the application of the Principal Component Analysis for an efficient climate downscaling of surface wind fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, Roberto; Lozano, Sergio; Correia, Pedro; Sanz-Rodrigo, Javier; Probst, Oliver

2013-04-01

With the purpose of efficiently and reliably generating long-term wind resource maps for the wind energy industry, the application and verification of a statistical methodology for the climate downscaling of wind fields at surface level is presented in this work. This procedure is based on the combination of the Monte Carlo and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) statistical methods. Firstly the Monte Carlo method is used to create a huge number of daily-based annual time series, so called climate representative years, by the stratified sampling of a 33-year-long time series corresponding to the available period of the NCAR/NCEP global reanalysis data set (R-2). Secondly the representative years are evaluated such that the best set is chosen according to its capability to recreate the Sea Level Pressure (SLP) temporal and spatial fields from the R-2 data set. The measure of this correspondence is based on the Euclidean distance between the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) spaces generated by the PCA (Principal Component Analysis) decomposition of the SLP fields from both the long-term and the representative year data sets. The methodology was verified by comparing the selected 365-days period against a 9-year period of wind fields generated by dynamical downscaling the Global Forecast System data with the mesoscale model SKIRON for the Iberian Peninsula. These results showed that, compared to the traditional method of dynamical downscaling any random 365-days period, the error in the average wind velocity by the PCA's representative year was reduced by almost 30%. Moreover the Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) in the monthly and daily wind profiles were also reduced by almost 25% along all SKIRON grid points. These results showed also that the methodology presented maximum error values in the wind speed mean of 0.8 m/s and maximum MAE in the monthly curves of 0.7 m/s. Besides the bulk numbers, this work shows the spatial distribution of the errors across the Iberian domain and additional wind statistics such as the velocity and directional frequency. Additional repetitions were performed to prove the reliability and robustness of this kind-of statistical-dynamical downscaling method.

Seasonal Variation of High-latitude Geomagnetic Activity Revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanskanen, E.; Hynönen, R.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

The coupling of the solar wind and auroral region has been examined by using westward electrojet indices since 1966 - 2014. We have studied the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity in individual years for solar cycles 20 - 24. The classical two-equinox activity pattern in geomagnetic activity was seen in multi-year averages but it was found in less than one third of the years examined. We found that the seasonal variation of high-latitude geomagnetic activity closely follows the solar wind speed. While the mechanisms leading to the two-equinox maxima pattern are in operation, the long-term change of solar wind speed tends to mask the effect of these mechanisms for individual years. We identified the most active and the second most active season based on westward electrojet indices AL (1966 - 2014) and IL (1995 - 2014). The annual maximum is found at either equinox in 2/3 and at either solstice in 1/3 of the years examined. Large cycle-to-cycle variation is found in the seasonal pattern: equinox maxima are more common during cycles 21 and 22 than in cycles 23 or 24. An exceptionally long winter dominance in high-latitude activity and solar wind speed is seen in the declining phase of cycle 23, after the appearance of the long-lasting low-latitude coronal hole.

Wind-Driven Global Evolution of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xue-Ning

It has been realized in the recent years that magnetized disk winds disk- likely play a decisive role in the global evolution of protoplanetary disks protoplanetary evolution (PPDs). Motivated by recent local simulations local , we first describe a global magnetized disk wind model, from which wind-driven accretion rate -rate wind-driven and wind mass loss rate can be reliably estimated. Both rates are shown to strongly depend on the amount of magnetic flux magnetic threading the disk. Wind kinematics is also affected by thermodynamics in the wind zone (particularly far UV heating/ionization), and the mass loss process loss- can be better termed as "magneto-photoevaporation." We then construct a framework of PPD global evolution global that incorporates wind-driven and viscously driven accretion viscously-driven as well as wind mass loss. For typical PPD accretion rates, the required field strength would lead to wind mass loss rate at least comparable to disk accretion rate, and mass loss is most significant in the outer disk (beyond ˜ 10 AU). Finally, we discuss the transport of magnetic flux in PPDs, which largely governs the long-term evolution long-term of PPDs.

A Method to Quantify the Wind and Non-wind Contribution to Year-to-year Air Quality Variation and its Application in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, Y.; Lau, A. K. H.; Wong, A.; Fung, J. C. H.

2017-12-01

Changes in emissions and wind are often identified as the two dominant factors contributing to year-to-year variations in the concentration of primary pollutants. However, because changes in wind and emissions are intertwined, it has been difficult to quantitatively differentiate their effects on air quality directly from observed data. In particular, if the annual mean concentration of pollutants is higher than the previous year, it is difficult to identify whether the deterioration in air quality is caused by wind blowing from more polluted regions or an increase in contributing emissions. In this paper, based on wind and pollution roses, we propose a method to differentiate the effects of wind and non-wind (e.g., emissions) changes using direct observation. An index (L) is first defined to quantify the validity of the linear decomposition. The method is then validated by idealized experiments, numerical experiments and a two-year observation dataset from an actual emissions control program. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed method by studying long-term PM10 variations in Hong Kong during 2000-2011. We find that for most of the period, the linear decomposition of the changes in annual PM10 is valid (up to 90% confidence) and is dominated by the change in non-wind effects (e.g., emissions), whereas the average absolute effect from the wind variability is about 20%. Sensitivity analyses also suggest that our method should work in any location as long as the observed wind and pollution data have sufficient duration and resolution to resolve the corresponding wind and pollution roses. The method is applied for estimating the control effectiveness of the intervention programs in the Shanghai Expo, the longest socioeconomic international event held in China. The results show that integrated effect of control policies taken for improving the air quality in Shanghai are significantly effective for PM10 reduction and also effective for SO2 reduction, whereas the traffic emission control are not effective for NO2 at urban stations, though the overall emission control lead to an decrease for the city average NO2 concentration.

Space-based measurements of elemental abundances and their relation to solar abundances

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coplan, M. A.; Ogilvie, K. W.; Bochsler, P.; Geiss, J.

1990-01-01

The Ion Composition Instrument (ICI) aboard the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft was in the solar wind continuously from August 1978 to December 1982. The results made it possible to establish long-term average solar wind abundance values for helium, oxygen, neon, silicon, and iron. The Charge-Energy-Mass instrument aboard the CCE spacecraft of the AMPTE mission has measured the abundance of these elements in the magnetosheath and has also added carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, and sulfur to the list. There is strong evidence that these magnetosheath abundances are representative of the solar wind. Other sources of solar wind abundances are Solar Energetic Particle experiments and Apollo lunar foils. When comparing the abundances from all of these sources with photospheric abundances, it is clear that helium is depleted in the solar wind while silicon and iron are enhanced. Solar wind abundances for carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, and neon correlate well with the photospheric values. The incorporation of minor ions into the solar wind appears to depend upon both the ionization times for the elements and the Coulomb drag exerted by the outflowing proton flux.

Short time ahead wind power production forecast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapronova, Alla; Meissner, Catherine; Mana, Matteo

2016-09-01

An accurate prediction of wind power output is crucial for efficient coordination of cooperative energy production from different sources. Long-time ahead prediction (from 6 to 24 hours) of wind power for onshore parks can be achieved by using a coupled model that would bridge the mesoscale weather prediction data and computational fluid dynamics. When a forecast for shorter time horizon (less than one hour ahead) is anticipated, an accuracy of a predictive model that utilizes hourly weather data is decreasing. That is because the higher frequency fluctuations of the wind speed are lost when data is averaged over an hour. Since the wind speed can vary up to 50% in magnitude over a period of 5 minutes, the higher frequency variations of wind speed and direction have to be taken into account for an accurate short-term ahead energy production forecast. In this work a new model for wind power production forecast 5- to 30-minutes ahead is presented. The model is based on machine learning techniques and categorization approach and using the historical park production time series and hourly numerical weather forecast.

Analysis of the surface heat balance over the world ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Esbensen, S. K.

1981-01-01

It is possible to estimate long term monthly mean latent and sensible heat fluxes over the ocean to within or approximately 20% relative accuracy of the bulk aerodynamic formulas, by using observations of the monthly mean surface wind speed and the monthly mean sea air temperature and humidity differences. It is possible to make an estimate of the fluxes on a month to month basis from monthly averaged surface data.

Recent trends in power system reliability and implications for evaluating future investments in resiliency

DOE PAGES

Larsen, Peter H.; LaCommare, Kristina H.; Eto, Joseph H.; ...

2016-10-27

Here, this study examines the relationship between annual changes in electricity reliability reported by a large cross-section of U.S. electricity distribution utilities over a period of 13 years and a broad set of potential explanatory variables, including weather and utility characteristics. We find statistically significant correlations between the average number of power interruptions experienced annually and above average wind speeds, precipitation, lightning strikes, and a measure of population density: customers per line mile. We also find significant relationships between the average number of minutes of power interruptions experienced and above average wind speeds, precipitation, cooling degree-days, and one strategy usedmore » to mitigate the impacts of severe weather: the amount of underground transmission and distribution line miles. Perhaps most importantly, we find a significant time trend of increasing annual average number of minutes of power interruptions over time—especially when interruptions associated with extreme weather are included. Lastly, the research method described in this analysis can provide a basis for future efforts to project long-term trends in reliability and the associated benefits of strategies to improve grid resiliency to severe weather—both in the U.S. and abroad.« less

Water-waves frequency upshift of the spectral mean due to wind forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eeltink, Debbie; Chabchoub, Amin; Brunetti, Maura; Kasparian, Jerome; Kimmoun, Olivier; Branger, Hubert

2017-04-01

The effect of wind forcing on monochromatic modulated water waves was investigated both numerically and experimentally in the context of the Modified Non-Linear Schrödinger (MNLS) equation framework. While wind is usually associated with a frequency downshift of the dominant spectral peak, we show that it may induce an upshift of the spectral mean due to an asymmetric amplification of the spectrum. Here the weighted average spectral mean is equal to the ratio of the momentum of the envelope to its norm and it detects any asymmetries in the spectrum (Segur et al. 2005). Wind can however indirectly induce frequency downshifts, by promoting dissipative effects like wave breaking. We highlight that the definition of the up- and downshift in terms of peak frequency or average frequency is critical for a relevant discussion. In our model, the wind input consists of a leading order forcing term that amplifies all frequencies equally and induces a broadening of the spectrum, and a higher order asymmetric term (Brunetti et al. 2014; Brunetti & Kasparian 2014) that amplifies higher frequencies more than lower ones and induces a permanent upshift of the spectral mean. The effect of MNLS + wind is exactly opposite to MNLS + viscosity, where the lower order viscosity terms damp the whole spectrum, while the higher order viscosity terms damp higher frequencies more than lower ones and thus causes a permanent downshift, as evidenced by Carter & Govan (2016). We corroborated the model with wave tank experiments conducted in the IRPHE/Pytheas large wind-wave facility located in Marseille, France. Wave data analysis show the temporary downshift in the spectral peak sense caused by the wind, and the temporary upshift in the spectral mean sense characteristic of the MNLS. As the tank-length was limited, we used long-range simulations to obtain upshift in the spectral mean sense caused by the wind. The limit of the model is reached when breaking events occur. We acknowledge financial support from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project 200021-155970), the Labex MEC (French ANR-10-LABX-0092) and the A*MIDEX project (ANR-11-IDEX-0001-02). • Brunetti, M. and Kasparian, J. 2014 "Modulational instability in wind-forced waves". Physics Letters A, 378: 48, 3626-3630. • Brunetti, M., Marchiando, N., Berti, N. and Kasparian, J. 2014 "Nonlinear fast growth of water waves under wind forcing". Physics Letters A 378: 1415, 1025-1030. • Carter, J. D. and Govan, A. 2016 "Frequency downshift in a viscous fluid." Eur. Journ. Mech. - B/Fluids 59: 177-185. • Segur, H., Henderson, D., Carter, J., Hammack, J., Li, C.-M., Pheiff, D. and Socha, K. 2005 "Stabilizing the Benjamin-Feir instability". Journ. Fluid Mechanics, 539: 229-271.

Mean wind speed persistence over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei

2018-07-01

The wind speed persistence is an important factor in the assessment of wind energy potential. In this paper, we explore the persistence of Mean Wind Speed (MWS) with many years of record using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) over China. The results illustrate that there exist irregular high-frequency fluctuations for daily MWS anomaly records. Long-term persistence of MWS is found for all meteorological observed sites. We also make some numerical tests in order to verify the significance of long-term persistence by shuffling the data records many times. These facts prove that the MWS anomaly records have long-term persistence over all the stations in China. The mean value 0.64 in DFA-exponents for all stations over China is also obviously higher than the value 0.53 according to interval threshold of 95% confidence level after shuffling the MWS records many times. In addition, the values of scaling exponent vary from station to station over China. Long-term persistence of MWS in spatial distributions seems to be downward trends from east to west China. Many factors may affect long-term persistence of MWS such as southwest monsoon, Tibetan Plateau landform and atmosphere-ocean-land interaction and so on. Possible physical mechanism need further analysis in the future.

IFT&E Industry Report Wind Turbine-Radar Interference Test Summary.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karlson, Benjamin; LeBlanc, Bruce Philip.; Minster, David G

2014-10-01

Wind turbines have grown in size and capacity with today's average turbine having a power capacity of around 1.9 MW, reaching to heights of over 495 feet from ground to blade tip, and operating with speeds at the tip of the blade up to 200 knots. When these machines are installed within the line-of-sight of a radar system, they can cause significant clutter and interference, detrimentally impacting the primary surveillance radar (PSR) performance. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Lincoln Laboratory (MIT LL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) were co-funded to conduct field tests and evaluations over two years in ordermore » to: I. Characterize the impact of wind turbines on existing Program-of-Record (POR) air surveillance radars; II. Assess near-term technologies proposed by industry that have the potential to mitigate the interference from wind turbines on radar systems; and III. Collect data and increase technical understanding of interference issues to advance development of long-term mitigation strategies. MIT LL and SNL managed the tests and evaluated resulting data from three flight campaigns to test eight mitigation technologies on terminal (short) and long-range (60 nmi and 250 nmi) radar systems. Combined across the three flight campaigns, more than 460 of hours of flight time were logged. This paper summarizes the Interagency Field Test & Evaluation (IFT&E) program and publicly- available results from the tests. It will also discuss the current wind turbine-radar interference evaluation process within the government and a proposed process to deploy mitigation technologies.« less

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics.

PubMed

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2013-05-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996-2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum.

The effect of wind waves on spring-neap variations in sediment transport in two meso-tidal estuarine basins with contrasting fetch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunt, Stephen; Bryan, Karin R.; Mullarney, Julia C.

2017-03-01

Higher-energy episodic wind-waves can substantially modify estuarine morphology over short timescales which are superimposed on lower-energy but long-term tidal asymmetry effects. Theoretically, wind waves and tidal currents change the morphology through their combined influence on the asymmetry between bed shear stress, τmax, on the flood and ebb tide, although the relative contribution of such wind-wave events in shaping the long-term morphological evolution in real estuaries is not well known. If the rising tide reaches sufficiently high water depths, τmax decreases as water depth increases because of the depth attenuation of wave orbital velocities. However, this effect is opposed by the increase in τmax associated with the longer fetch occurring at high tide, which allows the generation of larger waves. Additionally, these effects are superimposed on the spring-neap variations in current associated with changes to tidal range. By comparing two mesotidal basins in the same dendritic estuary, one with a large fetch aligned with the prevailing wind direction and one with only a small fetch, we show that for a sufficiently large fetch even the small and frequently occurring wind events are able to create waves that are capable of changing the morphology ('morphologically significant'). Conversely, in the basin with reduced fetch, these waves are generated less frequently and therefore are of reduced morphological significance. Here, we find that although tidal current should be stronger during spring tides and alter morphology more, on average the reduced fetch and increased water depth during spring tides mean that the basin-averaged intertidal τmax is similar during both spring and neap tides. Moreover, in the presence of wind waves, the duration of slack water is reduced during neap tides relative to spring tides, resulting in a reduced chance for accretion during neap tides. Finally, τmax is lower in the subtidal channels during neaps than springs but of a similar magnitude over the intertidal areas, and so sediment is more likely to be advected from the intertidal regions during neap tides rather than springs. This spring-neap cycle in sediment transport potential is in sharp contrast to that found previously in microtidal wave-dominated environments, where spring tides are expected to enhance erosion.

The winds of the comparison data set for the Seasat Gulf of Alaska Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.; Peteherych, S.; Wilkerson, J. C.

1980-01-01

Ship and data buoy winds used for comparison in the validation of Seasat-derived winds are described in terms of the time series of hourly wind observations from the buoys and in terms of the techniques used to produce 20- and 30-min average winds from the ships. Attention is given to the comparison data, the synoptic scale wind, turbulence concepts, the data buoy winds, Ocean Weather Station PAPA, the oceanographer data, and the results from Ocean Station PAPA Ship Quadra and from the oceanographer. Sources of scatter in the comparison data are reviewed.

Long-period variations of wind parameters in the mesopause region and the solar cycle dependence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Greisiger, K. M.; Schminder, R.; Kuerschner, D.

1987-01-01

The solar cycle dependence of wind parameters below 100 km on the basis of long term continuous ionospheric drift measurements in the low frequency range is discussed. For the meridional prevailing wind no significant variation was found. The same comparison as for winter was done for summer where the previous investigations gave no correlation. Now the radar meteor wind measurement values, too, showed a significant negative correlation of the zonal prevailing wind with solar activity for the years 1976 to 1983. The ionospheric drift measurement results of Collm have the same tendency but a larger dispersion due to the lower accuracy of the harmonic analysis because of the shorter daily measuring interval in summer. Continuous wind observations in the upper mesopause region over more than 20 years revealed distinct long term variations, the origin of which cannot be explained with the present knowledge.

Comparison of long-term trends from reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozubek, M.

2017-12-01

The long-term trend of different atmospheric parameters has been studied separately during previous years in many papers. This study is focused on the temperature, wind (u and v component), geopotential height and water vapour trends during 1979-2016. We present the trend for each month with respect to ozone turnaround during mid 1990s. The different reanalyses (MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55 and NCEP-NOE) are used for comparison. We analyzed every grid point to reduce the problem with zonal averages in different pressure levels. The results will show the complex view on the trend in the middle atmosphere (troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere). This comparison can give us the clue which reanalysis is better for studying different phenomena (QBO, NAO, ENSO, etc.) and which one has some issues.

A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cradden, Lucy C.; McDermott, Frank

2018-05-01

Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.

Geomagnetism during solar cycle 23: Characteristics

PubMed Central

Zerbo, Jean-Louis; Amory-Mazaudier, Christine; Ouattara, Frédéric

2012-01-01

On the basis of more than 48 years of morphological analysis of yearly and monthly values of the sunspot number, the aa index, the solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field, we point out the particularities of geomagnetic activity during the period 1996–2009. We especially investigate the last cycle 23 and the long minimum which followed it. During this period, the lowest values of the yearly averaged IMF (3 nT) and yearly averaged solar wind speed (364 km/s) are recorded in 1996, and 2009 respectively. The year 2003 shows itself particular by recording the highest value of the averaged solar wind (568 km/s), associated to the highest value of the yearly averaged aa index (37 nT). We also find that observations during the year 2003 seem to be related to several coronal holes which are known to generate high-speed wind stream. From the long time (more than one century) study of solar variability, the present period is similar to the beginning of twentieth century. We especially present the morphological features of solar cycle 23 which is followed by a deep solar minimum. PMID:25685427

Impacts of wind stilling on solar radiation variability in China

PubMed Central

Lin, Changgui; Yang, Kun; Huang, Jianping; Tang, Wenjun; Qin, Jun; Niu, Xiaolei; Chen, Yingying; Chen, Deliang; Lu, Ning; Fu, Rong

2015-01-01

Solar dimming and wind stilling (slowdown) are two outstanding climate changes occurred in China over the last four decades. The wind stilling may have suppressed the dispersion of aerosols and amplified the impact of aerosol emission on solar dimming. However, there is a lack of long-term aerosol monitoring and associated study in China to confirm this hypothesis. Here, long-term meteorological data at weather stations combined with short-term aerosol data were used to assess this hypothesis. It was found that surface solar radiation (SSR) decreased considerably with wind stilling in heavily polluted regions at a daily scale, indicating that wind stilling can considerably amplify the aerosol extinction effect on SSR. A threshold value of 3.5 m/s for wind speed is required to effectively reduce aerosols concentration. From this SSR dependence on wind speed, we further derived proxies to quantify aerosol emission and wind stilling amplification effects on SSR variations at a decadal scale. The results show that aerosol emission accounted for approximately 20% of the typical solar dimming in China, which was amplified by approximately 20% by wind stilling. PMID:26463748

Effect of long-term ketamine administration on vocalization to paw pressure and on spinal wind-up activity in monoarthritic rats.

PubMed

Pelissier, Teresa; Alvarez, Pedro; Hernández, Alejandro

2003-09-01

The antinociceptive effect of long-lasting ketamine administration (mini-osmotic pump) was studied in monoarthritic rats by using hindpaw pressure testing and wind-up measurement in a C-fiber reflex paradigm. Chronic ketamine induced antinociception in the monoarthritic paw and significantly suppressed mechanical hyperalgesia during the 14-day treatment period. The treatment also reduced C-reflex wind-up in the monoarthritic hindpaw. After pump removal, vocalization thresholds and spinal wind-up scores from the monoarthritic paw returned to control values, while hyperalgesia developed in the normal paw. Results suggest that ketamine upregulates NMDA receptors upon long-term administration, resulting in hyperalgesic response in the normal paw after drug withdrawal.

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Parameterization of synoptic weather systems in the South Atlantic Bight for modeling applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaodong; Voulgaris, George; Kumar, Nirnimesh

2017-10-01

An event based, long-term, climatological analysis is presented that allows the creation of coastal ocean atmospheric forcing on the coastal ocean that preserves both frequency of occurrence and event time history. An algorithm is developed that identifies individual storm event (cold fronts, warm fronts, and tropical storms) from meteorological records. The algorithm has been applied to a location along the South Atlantic Bight, off South Carolina, an area prone to cyclogenesis occurrence and passages of atmospheric fronts. Comparison against daily weather maps confirms that the algorithm is efficient in identifying cold fronts and warm fronts, while the identification of tropical storms is less successful. The average state of the storm events and their variability are represented by the temporal evolution of atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind velocity, and wave directional spectral energy. The use of uncorrected algorithm-detected events provides climatologies that show a little deviation from those derived using corrected events. The effectiveness of this analysis method is further verified by numerically simulating the wave conditions driven by the characteristic wind forcing and comparing the results with the wave climatology that corresponds to each storm type. A high level of consistency found in the comparison indicates that this analysis method can be used for accurately characterizing event-based oceanic processes and long-term storm-induced morphodynamic processes on wind-dominated coasts.

Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

2017-10-01

Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

Influence of wind turbines on seismic stations in the upper rhine graben, SW Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Toni; Ritter, Joachim R. R.

2018-01-01

By analysing long- and short-term seismological measurements at wind farms close to the town of Landau, SW Germany, we present new insights into ground motion signals from wind turbines (WTs) at local seismic stations. Because of their need to be located in similar regions with sparsely anthropogenic activities, wind turbines impact seismic stations and their recordings in a way that is not yet fully understood by researchers. To ensure the undisturbed recording tasks of a regional seismic array or a single station by a protected area around those endangered stations, it is very important to investigate the behavior of WTs as a seismic source. For that reason, we calculate averaged one-hour long spectra of the power spectral density (PSD) before and after the installation of a new wind farm within the investigated area. These PSD are ordered according to the rotation speed. We observe a clear increase of the PSD level after the WT installation in a frequency range of 0.5 to 10 Hz up to a distance of 5.5 km away from the WT. By analysing seismic borehole data, we also observe a decrease of the PSD of wind dependent signals with depth. The impact of wind-dependent signals is found to be much more pronounced for the shallower station (150 m depth) than for the deeper one (305 m depth). Using short-term profile measurements, we fit a power-law decay proportional to 1/ r b to the main WT-induced PSD peaks and differentiate between near-field and far-field effects of ground motions. For low frequencies in the range from 1 to 4 Hz, we determine a b value of 0.78 to 0.85 for the far field, which is consistent with surface waves. The b value increases (up to 1.59) with increasing frequencies (up to 5.5 Hz), which is obviously due to attenuating effects like scattering or anelasticity. These results give a better understanding of the seismic wavefield interactions between wind turbines (or wind farms) with nearby seismic stations, including borehole installations, in a sedimentary setting.

Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

2018-02-01

While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

Long-term variations of fluxes of solar protons and helium isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anufriev, G. S.

2012-11-01

The fluxes of hydrogen and helium isotopes in the solar wind are reconstructed over a long time scale since the present time up to 600 million years back. Abundances of helium isotopes, obtained in the helium isotopic analysis made for 8 lunar soil samples, were used as initial data in the reconstruction procedure. Samples were taken off from various levels of the 1.6-m core of lunar soil delivered by the automatic Luna-24 station in 1976. The data on modern hydrogen and helium fluxes were used as well. The developed reconstruction procedure allowed one to select various solar wind components in a "gross" composition. Proton flux variations over the interval of 600 million years do not exceed a value of 40 %. Helium flux variations reach a value of 1.5-2 relative to the average value. Most likely, this circumstance is caused by considerable variations of a number of coronal mass ejections ( CME) enriched by helium. The arguments in favor of solar activity polycyclicity on a long time scale are discussed.

Solar Wind Five

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neugebauer, M. (Editor)

1983-01-01

Topics of discussion were: solar corona, MHD waves and turbulence, acceleration of the solar wind, stellar coronae and winds, long term variations, energetic particles, plasma distribution functions and waves, spatial dependences, and minor ions.

CAT LIDAR wind shear studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goff, R. W.

1978-01-01

The studies considered the major meteorological factors producing wind shear, methods to define and classify wind shear in terms significant from an aircraft perturbation standpoint, the significance of sensor location and scan geometry on the detection and measurement of wind shear, and the tradeoffs involved in sensor performance such as range/velocity resolution, update frequency and data averaging interval.

Post-fire land treatments and wind erosion -- lessons from the Milford Flat Fire, UT, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Mark E.; Bowker, Matthew A.; Reynolds, Richard L.; Goldstein, Harland L.

2012-01-01

We monitored sediment flux at 25 plots located at the northern end of the 2007 Milford Flat Fire (Lake Bonneville Basin, west-central Utah) to examine the effectiveness of post-fire rehabilitation treatments in mitigating risks of wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire. Maximum values were recorded during Mar–Jul 2009 when horizontal sediment fluxes measured with BSNE samplers ranged from 16.3 to 1251.0 g m−2 d−1 in unburned plots (n = 8; data represent averages of three sampler heights per plot), 35.2–555.3 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that were not treated (n = 5), and 21.0–44,010.7 g m−2 d−1 in burned plots that received one or more rehabilitation treatments that disturbed the soil surface (n = 12). Fluxes during this period exhibited extreme spatial variability and were contingent on upwind landscape characteristics and surficial soil properties, with maximum fluxes recorded in settings downwind of treated areas with long treatment length and unstable fine sand. Nonlinear patterns of wind erosion attributable to soil and fetch effects highlight the profound importance of landscape setting and soil properties as spatial factors to be considered in evaluating risks of alternative post-fire rehabilitation strategies. By Mar–Jul 2010, average flux for all plots declined by 73.6% relative to the comparable 2009 period primarily due to the establishment and growth of exotic annual plants rather than seeded perennial plants. Results suggest that treatments in sensitive erosion-prone settings generally exacerbated rather than mitigated wind erosion during the first 3 years post fire, although long-term effects remain uncertain.

Long-range wind monitoring in real time with optimized coherent lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolfi-Bouteyre, Agnes; Canat, Guillaume; Lombard, Laurent; Valla, Matthieu; Durécu, Anne; Besson, Claudine

2017-03-01

Two important enabling technologies for pulsed coherent detection wind lidar are the laser and real-time signal processing. In particular, fiber laser is limited in peak power by nonlinear effects, such as stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS). We report on various technologies that have been developed to mitigate SBS and increase peak power in 1.5-μm fiber lasers, such as special large mode area fiber designs or strain management. Range-resolved wind profiles up to a record range of 16 km within 0.1-s averaging time have been obtained thanks to those high-peak power fiber lasers. At long range, the lidar signal gets much weaker than the noise and special care is required to extract the Doppler peak from the spectral noise. To optimize real-time processing for weak carrier-to-noise ratio signal, we have studied various Doppler mean frequency estimators (MFE) and the influence of data accumulation on outliers occurrence. Five real-time MFEs (maximum, centroid, matched filter, maximum likelihood, and polynomial fit) have been compared in terms of error and processing time using lidar experimental data. MFE errors and data accumulation limits are established using a spectral method.

Gradients and anisotropies of high energy cosmic rays in the outer heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fillius, W.; Roelof, E. C.; Smith, E. J.; Wood, D.; Ip, W. H.

1985-01-01

Previous studies at lower energies have shown that the cosmic ray density gradients vary in space and time, and many authors currently are suggesting that the radial gradient associated with solar cycle modulation is supported largely by narrow barriers which encircle the Sun and propagate outward with the solar wind. If so, the anisotropy is a desirable way to detect spatial gradients, because it can be associated with the local solar wind and magnetic field conditions. With this in mind, the anisotropy measurements made by the UCSD Cerenkov detectors on Pioneers 10 and 11 are studied. It is shown that the local anisotropy varies greatly, but that the long term average is consistent with the global radial gradient measured between two spacecraft over a baseline of many AU.

Application of a modeling approach to designate soil and soil organic carbon loss to wind erosion on long-term monitoring sites (BDF) in Northern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nerger, Rainer; Funk, Roger; Cordsen, Eckhard; Fohrer, Nicola

2017-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) loss is a serious problem in maize monoculture areas of Northern Germany. Sites of the soil monitoring network (SMN) "Boden-Dauerbeobachtung" show long-term soil and SOC losses, which cannot be explained by conventional SOC balances nor by other non-Aeolian causes. Using a process-based model, the main objective was to determine whether these losses can be explained by wind erosion. In the long-term context of 10 years, wind erosion was not measured directly but often observed. A suitable estimation approach linked high-quality soil/farming monitoring data with wind erosion modeling results. The model SWEEP, validated for German sandy soils, was selected using 10-minute wind speed data. Two similar local SMN study sites were compared, however, site A was characterized by high SOC loss and often affected by wind erosion, while the reference site B was not. At site A soil mass and SOC stock decreased by 49.4 and 2.44 kg m-2 from 1999 to 2009. Using SWEEP, a total soil loss of 48.9 kg m-2 resulted for 16 erosion events (max. single event 12.6 kg m-2). A share of 78% was transported by suspension with a SOC enrichment ratio (ER) of 2.96 (saltation ER 0.98), comparable to the literature. At the reference site measured and modeled topsoil losses were minimal. The good agreement between monitoring and modeling results suggested that wind erosion caused significant long-term soil and SOC losses. The approach uses results of prior studies and is applicable to similar well-studied sites without other noteworthy SOC losses.

Synoptic backgrounds of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran Province of Iran during December 11-13, 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghavidel, Yousef; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Khaleghi Babaei, Meysam

2016-12-01

In this paper, atmospheric origins of the widest wildfire in Mazandaran province on 11-13th of December, 2010 have been investigated. Data sets of this research include maximum daily temperature (MDT), minimum relative humidity (MRH) of terrestrial stations, dynamic and thermodynamic features of the atmosphere, Gridded data sets of Self-Calibrated Palmer drought severity index (SCPDSI) and global drought dataset standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and data related to the time and the extent of the wildfire. The ``environmental to circulation'' approach to synoptic classification has been used to investigate relationships between local-scale surface environment (wildfire) and the synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation conditions. Results of study show that during the 3-day wide wildfire, the average of MDT and the MRH was significantly different from the long-term average. During the aforementioned wildfire, the average of MDT in Mazandaran province was 26 °C and the average of MRH was reported 35 %. The long-term average of MDT and the MRH in Mazandaran province during 3 days of wildfire was 12.3 °C and 68 %, respectively. Therefore, the MDT has a positive abnormality of 13.7 °C and the MRH has a negative abnormality of 33 %. In addition, monthly SCPDSI and SPEI indicated severe drought conditions at December 2010 in Mazandaran. Analysis of SLP maps shows that during the 3-day fire, a pressure center of 1110 hPa on Persian Gulf and a very low-pressure center on Turkey and Asia Minor were created. Normally, this event has caused the pressure gradient and warm and dry air advection from Arabian Peninsula to higher longitudes, particularly Mazandaran province. Consequently, the MDT increased and the wildfire of Mazandaran forest took place in an area of 220 ha. Zonal wind maps signify the weakness of Zonal wind and meridional wind maps show the southern direction of meridional wind flow during the wide wildfire. Moreover, Omega maps prove that during the aforementioned wildfire, the Omega flow has been positive and the warm air flow has subsidence. This made the infusion of warm air and increased the MDT substantially and consequently the wildfire occurrence was facilitated. Temperature advection maps showed that in the level of 1000 hPa, the warm air blowing source is originated from Arabian Peninsula, in the level of 850 hPa from the Arabian Peninsula and Iraq and in the level of 700 and 500 hPa from Ethiopia, Arabian Peninsula and Iraq. The Hybrid-Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model outputs confirm the synoptic mechanisms for the discussed wildfire.

The Effectiveness of Singing or Playing a Wind Instrument in Improving Respiratory Function in Patients with Long-Term Neurological Conditions: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Ang, Kexin; Maddocks, Matthew; Xu, Huiying; Higginson, Irene J

2017-03-01

Many long-term neurological conditions adversely affect respiratory function. Singing and playing wind instruments are relatively inexpensive interventions with potential for improving respiratory function; however, synthesis of current evidence is needed to inform research and clinical use of music in respiratory care. To critically appraise, analyze, and synthesize published evidence on the effectiveness of singing or playing a wind instrument to improve respiratory function in people with long-term neurological conditions. Systematic review of published randomized controlled trials and observational studies examining singing or playing wind instruments to improve respiratory function in individuals with long-term neurological conditions. Articles meeting specified inclusion criteria were identified through a search of the Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, Web of Science, CAIRSS for Music, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform Search Portal, and AMED databases as early as 1806 through March 2015. Information on study design, clinical populations, interventions, and outcome measures was extracted and summarized using an electronic standardized coding form. Methodological quality was assessed and summarized across studies descriptively. From screening 584 references, 68 full texts were reviewed and five studies included. These concerned 109 participants. The studies were deemed of low quality, due to evidence of bias, in part due to intervention complexity. No adverse effects were reported. Overall, there was a trend toward improved respiratory function, but only one study on Parkinson's disease had significant between-group differences. The positive trend in respiratory function in people with long-term neurological conditions following singing or wind instrument therapy is of interest, and warrants further investigation. © the American Music Therapy Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Long-term energy capture and the effects of optimizing wind turbine operating strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, A. H.; Formica, W. J.

1982-01-01

Methods of increasing energy capture without affecting the turbine design were investigated. The emphasis was on optimizing the wind turbine operating strategy. The operating strategy embodies the startup and shutdown algorithm as well as the algorithm for determining when to yaw (rotate) the axis of the turbine more directly into the wind. Using data collected at a number of sites, the time-dependent simulation of a MOD-2 wind turbine using various, site-dependent operating strategies provided evidence that site-specific fine tuning can produce significant increases in long-term energy capture as well as reduce the number of start-stop cycles and yawing maneuvers, which may result in reduced fatigue and subsequent maintenance.

Long-term variability of wind patterns at hub-height over Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, J.; Jeon, W.; Choi, Y.; Souri, A.

2017-12-01

Wind energy is getting more attention because of its environmentally friendly attributes. Texas is a state with significant capacity and number of wind turbines. Wind power generation is significantly affected by wind patterns, and it is important to understand this seasonal and decadal variability for long-term power generation from wind turbines. This study focused on the trends of changes in wind pattern and its strength at two hub-heights (80 m and 110 m) over 30-years (1986 to 2015). We only analyzed summer data(June to September) because of concentrated electricity usage in Texas. We extracted hub-height wind data (U and V components) from the three-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction-North American Regional Reanalysis (NCEP-NARR) and classified wind patterns properly by using nonhierarchical K-means method. Hub-height wind patterns in summer seasons of 1986 to 2015 were classified in six classes at day and seven classes at night. Mean wind speed was 4.6 ms-1 at day and 5.4 ms-1 at night, but showed large variability in time and space. We combined each cluster's frequencies and wind speed tendencies with large scale atmospheric circulation features and quantified the amount of wind power generation.

Historical instrumental climate data for Australia - quality and utility for palaeoclimatic studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicholls, Neville; Collins, Dean; Trewin, Blair; Hope, Pandora

2006-10-01

The quality and availability of climate data suitable for palaeoclimatic calibration and verification for the Australian region are discussed and documented. Details of the various datasets, including problems with the data, are presented. High-quality datasets, where such problems are reduced or even eliminated, are discussed. Many climate datasets are now analysed onto grids, facilitating the preparation of regional-average time series. Work is under way to produce such high-quality, gridded datasets for a variety of hitherto unavailable climate data, including surface humidity, pan evaporation, wind, and cloud. An experiment suggests that only a relatively small number of palaeoclimatic time series could provide a useful estimate of long-term changes in Australian annual average temperature. Copyright

Seasonal trend analysis and ARIMA modeling of relative humidity and wind speed time series around Yamula Dam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eymen, Abdurrahman; Köylü, Ümran

2018-02-01

Local climate change is determined by analysis of long-term recorded meteorological data. In the statistical analysis of the meteorological data, the Mann-Kendall rank test, which is one of the non-parametrical tests, has been used; on the other hand, for determining the power of the trend, Theil-Sen method has been used on the data obtained from 16 meteorological stations. The stations cover the provinces of Kayseri, Sivas, Yozgat, and Nevşehir in the Central Anatolia region of Turkey. Changes in land-use affect local climate. Dams are structures that cause major changes on the land. Yamula Dam is located 25 km northwest of Kayseri. The dam has huge water body which is approximately 85 km2. The mentioned tests have been used for detecting the presence of any positive or negative trend in meteorological data. The meteorological data in relation to the seasonal average, maximum, and minimum values of the relative humidity and seasonal average wind speed have been organized as time series and the tests have been conducted accordingly. As a result of these tests, the following have been identified: increase was observed in minimum relative humidity values in the spring, summer, and autumn seasons. As for the seasonal average wind speed, decrease was detected for nine stations in all seasons, whereas increase was observed in four stations. After the trend analysis, pre-dam mean relative humidity time series were modeled with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model which is statistical modeling tool. Post-dam relative humidity values were predicted by ARIMA models.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

Evolution of the Sunspot Number and Solar Wind B Time Series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cliver, Edward W.; Herbst, Konstantin

2018-03-01

The past two decades have witnessed significant changes in our knowledge of long-term solar and solar wind activity. The sunspot number time series (1700-present) developed by Rudolf Wolf during the second half of the 19th century was revised and extended by the group sunspot number series (1610-1995) of Hoyt and Schatten during the 1990s. The group sunspot number is significantly lower than the Wolf series before ˜1885. An effort from 2011-2015 to understand and remove differences between these two series via a series of workshops had the unintended consequence of prompting several alternative constructions of the sunspot number. Thus it has been necessary to expand and extend the sunspot number reconciliation process. On the solar wind side, after a decade of controversy, an ISSI International Team used geomagnetic and sunspot data to obtain a high-confidence time series of the solar wind magnetic field strength (B) from 1750-present that can be compared with two independent long-term (> ˜600 year) series of annual B-values based on cosmogenic nuclides. In this paper, we trace the twists and turns leading to our current understanding of long-term solar and solar wind activity.

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data

Treesearch

Brooke L. Bateman; Anna M. Pidgeon; Volker C. Radeloff; Curtis H. Flather; Jeremy VanDerWal; H. Resit Akcakaya; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Thomas P. Albright; Stephen J. Vavrus; Patricia J. Heglund

2016-01-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in...

Wind resource assessment: San Nicolas Island, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKenna, E.; Olsen, T.L.

1996-01-01

San Nicolas Island (SNI) is the site of the Navy Range Instrumentation Test Site which relies on an isolated diesel-powered grid for its energy needs. The island is located in the Pacific Ocean 85 miles southwest of Los Angeles, California and 65 miles south of the Naval Air Weapons Station (NAWS), Point Mugu, California. SNI is situated on the continental shelf at latitude N33{degree}14` and longitude W119{degree}27`. It is approximately 9 miles long and 3.6 miles wide and encompasses an area of 13,370 acres of land owned by the Navy in fee title. Winds on San Nicolas are prevailingly northwestmore » and are strong most of the year. The average wind speed is 7.2 m/s (14 knots) and seasonal variation is small. The windiest months, March through July, have wind speeds averaging 8.2 m/s (16 knots). The least windy months, August through February, have wind speeds averaging 6.2 m/s (12 knots).« less

Toward Robust and Efficient Climate Downscaling for Wind Energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanvyve, E.; Rife, D.; Pinto, J. O.; Monaghan, A. J.; Davis, C. A.

2011-12-01

This presentation describes a more accurate and economical (less time, money and effort) wind resource assessment technique for the renewable energy industry, that incorporates innovative statistical techniques and new global mesoscale reanalyzes. The technique judiciously selects a collection of "case days" that accurately represent the full range of wind conditions observed at a given site over a 10-year period, in order to estimate the long-term energy yield. We will demonstrate that this new technique provides a very accurate and statistically reliable estimate of the 10-year record of the wind resource by intelligently choosing a sample of ±120 case days. This means that the expense of downscaling to quantify the wind resource at a prospective wind farm can be cut by two thirds from the current industry practice of downscaling a randomly chosen 365-day sample to represent winds over a "typical" year. This new estimate of the long-term energy yield at a prospective wind farm also has far less statistical uncertainty than the current industry standard approach. This key finding has the potential to reduce significantly market barriers to both onshore and offshore wind farm development, since insurers and financiers charge prohibitive premiums on investments that are deemed to be high risk. Lower uncertainty directly translates to lower perceived risk, and therefore far more attractive financing terms could be offered to wind farm developers who employ this new technique.

Northerly wind trends along the Portuguese marine coast since 1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leitão, Francisco; Relvas, Paulo; Cánovas, Fernando; Baptista, Vânia; Teodósio, Alexandra

2018-04-01

Wind is a marine coastal factor that is little understood but has a strong interaction with biological productivity. In this study, northerly wind trends in three regions of the Portuguese coast (Northwestern: NW, Southwestern: SW, and Southern: S) were analyzed. Two datasets with long-term (ICOADS: 1960-2010) and short-term data (Satellite: 1989-2010) were used to complement one another. The study revealed the northerly wind yearly data to be non-stationary and highly variable between years. Overall, the northerly wind intensity increased throughout the 1960s regardless of the area and dataset. Between 1960 and 2010, the northerly wind increased at a linear rate of 0.24, 0.09, and 0.15 m s-1 per decade in the NW, SW, and S coastal regions, respectively. The rate was higher in recent decades (1988-2009), with the wind intensity increasing by 0.4, 0.3, and 0.3 ms-1 per decade in the NW, SW, and S regions, respectively. Analyses of the sudden shifts showed significant increases in northerly wind intensities after 2003, 2004, and 1998 in the NW, SW, and S coast, respectively. Exceptions were found for autumn (September for short-term data), when a decrease in northerly winds was observed in recent decades, regardless of the area, and for summer, when no changes in wind trends were recorded in the NW and SW. The long-term data also showed a major increase in northerly winds in winter (January and February), which is the recruitment season for many small and medium-sized pelagic fish. The increase in the intensity of the northerly winds over the past two decades and the past half-century occurred at a higher rate than was estimated by the IPCC for the next century.

Wind Forcing of the Pacific Ocean Using Scatterometer Wind Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelly, Kathryn A.

1999-01-01

The long-term objective of this research was an understanding of the wind-forced ocean circulation, particularly for the Pacific Ocean. To determine the ocean's response to the winds, we first needed to generate accurate maps of wind stress. For the ocean's response to wind stress we examined the sea surface height (SSH) both from altimeters and from numerical models for the Pacific Ocean.

Solar Drivers of 11-yr and Long-Term Cosmic Ray Modulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cliver, E. W.; Richardson, I. G.; Ling, A. G.

2011-01-01

In the current paradigm for the modulation of galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), diffusion is taken to be the dominant process during solar maxima while drift dominates at minima. Observations during the recent solar minimum challenge the pre-eminence of drift: at such times. In 2009, the approx.2 GV GCR intensity measured by the Newark neutron monitor increased by approx.5% relative to its maximum value two cycles earlier even though the average tilt angle in 2009 was slightly larger than that in 1986 (approx.20deg vs. approx.14deg), while solar wind B was significantly lower (approx.3.9 nT vs. approx.5.4 nT). A decomposition of the solar wind into high-speed streams, slow solar wind, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs; including postshock flows) reveals that the Sun transmits its message of changing magnetic field (diffusion coefficient) to the heliosphere primarily through CMEs at solar maximum and high-speed streams at solar minimum. Long-term reconstructions of solar wind B are in general agreement for the approx. 1900-present interval and can be used to reliably estimate GCR intensity over this period. For earlier epochs, however, a recent Be-10-based reconstruction covering the past approx. 10(exp 4) years shows nine abrupt and relatively short-lived drops of B to < or approx.= 0 nT, with the first of these corresponding to the Sporer minimum. Such dips are at variance with the recent suggestion that B has a minimum or floor value of approx.2.8 nT. A floor in solar wind B implies a ceiling in the GCR intensity (a permanent modulation of the local interstellar spectrum) at a given energy/rigidity. The 30-40% increase in the intensity of 2.5 GV electrons observed by Ulysses during the recent solar minimum raises an interesting paradox that will need to be resolved.

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and 30-Year Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest.

PubMed

Cross, Benjamin D; Kohfeld, Karen E; Bailey, Joseph; Cooper, Andrew B

2015-01-01

In hydroelectric dominated systems, the value and benefits of energy are higher during extended dry periods and lower during extended or extreme wet periods. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind speed and reservoir inflow behavior during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized. The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior, using British Columbia (BC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as a case study. Clean energy and self-sufficiency policies in British BC make the benefits of increased generation during low streamflow periods particularly large. Wind density (WD) estimates from a height of 10m (North American Regional Reanalysis, NARR) were correlated with cumulative usable inflows (CUI) for BC (collected from BC Hydro) for 1979-2010. The strongest WD-CUI correlations were found along the US coast (r ~0.55), whereas generally weaker correlations were found in northern regions, with negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC's North Coast. Furthermore, during the lowest inflow years, WD anomalies increased by up to 40% above average values for the North Coast. Seasonally, high flows during the spring freshet were coincident with widespread negative WD anomalies, with a similar but opposite pattern for low inflow winter months. These poorly or negatively correlated sites could have a moderating influence on climate related variability in provincial electricity supply, by producing greater than average generation in low inflow years and reduced generation in wet years. Wind speed and WD trends were also analyzed for all NARR grid locations, which showed statistically significant positive trends for most of the PNW and the largest increases along the Pacific Coast.

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and 30-Year Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

PubMed Central

Cross, Benjamin D.; Kohfeld, Karen E.; Bailey, Joseph; Cooper, Andrew B.

2015-01-01

In hydroelectric dominated systems, the value and benefits of energy are higher during extended dry periods and lower during extended or extreme wet periods. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind speed and reservoir inflow behavior during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized. The goal of this work was to help maximize the value of wind power by quantifying the long-term (30-year) relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior, using British Columbia (BC) and the Pacific Northwest (PNW) as a case study. Clean energy and self-sufficiency policies in British BC make the benefits of increased generation during low streamflow periods particularly large. Wind density (WD) estimates from a height of 10m (North American Regional Reanalysis, NARR) were correlated with cumulative usable inflows (CUI) for BC (collected from BC Hydro) for 1979–2010. The strongest WD-CUI correlations were found along the US coast (r ~0.55), whereas generally weaker correlations were found in northern regions, with negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC’s North Coast. Furthermore, during the lowest inflow years, WD anomalies increased by up to 40% above average values for the North Coast. Seasonally, high flows during the spring freshet were coincident with widespread negative WD anomalies, with a similar but opposite pattern for low inflow winter months. These poorly or negatively correlated sites could have a moderating influence on climate related variability in provincial electricity supply, by producing greater than average generation in low inflow years and reduced generation in wet years. Wind speed and WD trends were also analyzed for all NARR grid locations, which showed statistically significant positive trends for most of the PNW and the largest increases along the Pacific Coast. PMID:26271035

Incorporating wind availability into land use regression modelling of air quality in mountainous high-density urban environment.

PubMed

Shi, Yuan; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Ng, Edward

2017-08-01

Urban air quality serves as an important function of the quality of urban life. Land use regression (LUR) modelling of air quality is essential for conducting health impacts assessment but more challenging in mountainous high-density urban scenario due to the complexities of the urban environment. In this study, a total of 21 LUR models are developed for seven kinds of air pollutants (gaseous air pollutants CO, NO 2 , NO x , O 3 , SO 2 and particulate air pollutants PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) with reference to three different time periods (summertime, wintertime and annual average of 5-year long-term hourly monitoring data from local air quality monitoring network) in Hong Kong. Under the mountainous high-density urban scenario, we improved the traditional LUR modelling method by incorporating wind availability information into LUR modelling based on surface geomorphometrical analysis. As a result, 269 independent variables were examined to develop the LUR models by using the "ADDRESS" independent variable selection method and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR). Cross validation has been performed for each resultant model. The results show that wind-related variables are included in most of the resultant models as statistically significant independent variables. Compared with the traditional method, a maximum increase of 20% was achieved in the prediction performance of annual averaged NO 2 concentration level by incorporating wind-related variables into LUR model development. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sea Ice

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perovich, D.; Gerland, S.; Hendricks, S.; Meier, Walter N.; Nicolaus, M.; Richter-Menge, J.; Tschudi, M.

2013-01-01

During 2013, Arctic sea ice extent remained well below normal, but the September 2013 minimum extent was substantially higher than the record-breaking minimum in 2012. Nonetheless, the minimum was still much lower than normal and the long-term trend Arctic September extent is -13.7 per decade relative to the 1981-2010 average. The less extreme conditions this year compared to 2012 were due to cooler temperatures and wind patterns that favored retention of ice through the summer. Sea ice thickness and volume remained near record-low levels, though indications are of slightly thicker ice compared to the record low of 2012.

Storming ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Fourteen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes with winds above 111 mph. That's the forecast for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season which extends from June 1 through November 30, 1999, according to a Colorado State Hurricane Forecast team led by William Gray, professor of atmospheric science. The forecast supports an earlier report by the team.Hurricane activity, said Gray will be similar to 1998—which yielded 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense storms. These numbers are significantly higher than the long-term statistical averages of 9.3, 5.8, and 2.2, annually.

On the predominance of unstable atmospheric conditions in the marine boundary layer offshore of the U.S. northeastern coast

DOE PAGES

Archer, Cristina L.; Colle, Brian A.; Veron, Dana L.; ...

2016-07-18

The marine boundary layer of the northeastern U.S. is studied with focus on wind speed, atmospheric stability, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), the three most relevant properties in the context of offshore wind power development. Two long-term observational data sets are analyzed. The first one consists of multilevel meteorological variables measured up to 60 m during 2003–2011 at the offshore Cape Wind tower, located near the center of the Nantucket Sound. The second data set comes from the 2013–2014 IMPOWR campaign (Improving the Modeling and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources), in which wind and wave data were collected with newmore » instruments on the Cape Wind platform, in addition to meteorological data measured during 19 flight missions offshore of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. It is found that, in this region: (1) the offshore wind resource is remarkable, with monthly average wind speeds at 60 m exceeding 7 m s -1 all year round, highest winds in winter (10.1 m s -1) and lowest in summer (7.1 m s -1), and a distinct diurnal modulation, especially in summer; (2) the marine boundary layer is predominantly unstable (61% unstable vs. 21% neutral vs. 18% stable), meaning that mixing is strong, heat fluxes are positive, and the wind speed profile is often nonlogarithmic (~40% of the time); and (3) the shape of the wind speed profile (log versus nonlog) is an effective qualitative proxy for atmospheric stability, whereas TKE alone is not.« less

On the predominance of unstable atmospheric conditions in the marine boundary layer offshore of the U.S. northeastern coast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Archer, Cristina L.; Colle, Brian A.; Veron, Dana L.

The marine boundary layer of the northeastern U.S. is studied with focus on wind speed, atmospheric stability, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE), the three most relevant properties in the context of offshore wind power development. Two long-term observational data sets are analyzed. The first one consists of multilevel meteorological variables measured up to 60 m during 2003–2011 at the offshore Cape Wind tower, located near the center of the Nantucket Sound. The second data set comes from the 2013–2014 IMPOWR campaign (Improving the Modeling and Prediction of Offshore Wind Resources), in which wind and wave data were collected with newmore » instruments on the Cape Wind platform, in addition to meteorological data measured during 19 flight missions offshore of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. It is found that, in this region: (1) the offshore wind resource is remarkable, with monthly average wind speeds at 60 m exceeding 7 m s -1 all year round, highest winds in winter (10.1 m s -1) and lowest in summer (7.1 m s -1), and a distinct diurnal modulation, especially in summer; (2) the marine boundary layer is predominantly unstable (61% unstable vs. 21% neutral vs. 18% stable), meaning that mixing is strong, heat fluxes are positive, and the wind speed profile is often nonlogarithmic (~40% of the time); and (3) the shape of the wind speed profile (log versus nonlog) is an effective qualitative proxy for atmospheric stability, whereas TKE alone is not.« less

Objective Interpolation of Scatterometer Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tang, Wenquing; Liu, W. Timothy

1996-01-01

Global wind fields are produced by successive corrections that use measurements by the European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1) scatterometer. The methodology is described. The wind fields at 10-meter height provided by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are used to initialize the interpolation process. The interpolated wind field product ERSI is evaluated in terms of its improvement over the initial guess field (ECMWF) and the bin-averaged ERS-1 wind field (ERSB). Spatial and temporal differences between ERSI, ECMWF and ERSB are presented and discussed.

Mars vertical axis wind machines: The design of a tornado vortex machine for use on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlin, Daun; Dyhr, Amy; Kelly, Jon; Schmirler, J. Eric; Carlin, Mike; Hong, Won E.; Mahoney, Kamin

1994-01-01

Ever since Viking 1 and 2 landed on the surface of Mars in the summer of 1976, man has yearned to go back. But before man steps foot upon the surface of Mars, unmanned missions such as the Martian Soft Lander and Martian Subsurface Penetrator will precede him. Alternative renewable power sources must be developed to supply the next generation of surface exploratory spacecraft, since RTG's, solar cells, and long-life batteries all have their significant drawbacks. One such alternative is to take advantage of the unique Martian atmospheric conditions by designing a small scale, Martian wind power generator, capable of surviving impact and fulfilling the long term (2-5 years), low-level power requirements (1-2 Watts) of an unmanned surface probe. After investigation of several wind machines, a tornado vortex generator was chosen based upon its capability of theoretically augmenting and increasing the available power that may be extracted from average Martian wind speeds of approximately 7.5 m/s. The Martian Tornado Vortex Wind Generator stands 1 meter high and has a diameter of 0.5 m. Martian winds enter the base and shroud of the Tornado Vortex Generator at 7.5 m/s and are increased to an exit velocity of 13.657 m/s due to the vortex that is created. This results in a rapid pressure drop of 4.56 kg/s(exp 2) m across the vortex core which aids in producing a net power output of 1.1765 Watts. The report contains the necessary analysis and requirements needed to feasibly operate a low-level powered, unmanned, Martian surface probe.

Mars vertical axis wind machines: The design of a tornado vortex machine for use on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlin, Daun; Dyhr, Amy; Kelly, Jon; Schmirler, J. Eric; Carlin, Mike; Hong, Won E.; Mahoney, Kamin; Ralston, Michael

1994-06-01

Ever since Viking 1 and 2 landed on the surface of Mars in the summer of 1976, man has yearned to go back. But before man steps foot upon the surface of Mars, unmanned missions such as the Martian Soft Lander and Martian Subsurface Penetrator will precede him. Alternative renewable power sources must be developed to supply the next generation of surface exploratory spacecraft, since RTG's, solar cells, and long-life batteries all have their significant drawbacks. One such alternative is to take advantage of the unique Martian atmospheric conditions by designing a small scale, Martian wind power generator, capable of surviving impact and fulfilling the long term (2-5 years), low-level power requirements (1-2 Watts) of an unmanned surface probe. After investigation of several wind machines, a tornado vortex generator was chosen based upon its capability of theoretically augmenting and increasing the available power that may be extracted from average Martian wind speeds of approximately 7.5 m/s. The Martian Tornado Vortex Wind Generator stands 1 meter high and has a diameter of 0.5 m. Martian winds enter the base and shroud of the Tornado Vortex Generator at 7.5 m/s and are increased to an exit velocity of 13.657 m/s due to the vortex that is created. This results in a rapid pressure drop of 4.56 kg/s(exp 2) m across the vortex core which aids in producing a net power output of 1.1765 Watts. The report contains the necessary analysis and requirements needed to feasibly operate a low-level powered, unmanned, Martian surface probe.

Correlations between solar wind parameters and auroral kilometric radiation intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gallagher, D. L.; Dangelo, N.

1981-01-01

The relationship between solar wind properties and the influx of energy into the nightside auroral region as indicated by the intensity of auroral kilometric radiation is investigated. Smoothed Hawkeye satellite observations of auroral radiation at 178, 100 and 56.2 kHz for days 160 through 365 of 1974 are compared with solar wind data from the composite Solar Wind Plasma Data Set, most of which was supplied by the IMP-8 spacecraft. Correlations are made between smoothed daily averages of solar wind ion density, bulk flow speed, total IMF strength, electric field, solar wind speed in the southward direction, solar wind speed multiplied by total IMF strength, the substorm parameter epsilon and the Kp index. The greatest correlation is found between solar wind bulk flow speed and auroral radiation intensity, with a linear correlation coefficient of 0.78 for the 203 daily averages examined. A possible mechanism for the relationship may be related to the propagation into the nightside magnetosphere of low-frequency long-wavelength electrostatic waves produced in the magnetosheath by the solar wind.

Lower thermosphere (80-100 km) dynamics response to solar and geomagnetic activity: Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kazimirovsky, E. S.

1989-01-01

The variations of solar and geomagnetic activity may affect the thermosphere circulation via plasma heating and electric fields, especially at high latitudes. The possibility exists that the energy involved in auroral and magnetic storms can produce significant changes of mesosphere and lower thermosphere wind systems. A study of global radar measurements of winds at 80 to 100 km region revealed the short term effects (correlation between wind field and geomagnetic storms) and long term variations over a solar cycle. It seems likely that the correlation results from a modification of planetary waves and tides propagated from below, thus altering the dynamical regime of the thermosphere. Sometimes the long term behavior points rather to a climatic variation with the internal atmospheric cause than to a direct solar control.

A multi-timescale view on the slow solar wind with MTOF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidrich-Meisner, Verena; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; Wurz, Peter; Bochsler, Peter; Ipavich, Fred M.; Paquette, John A.; Klecker, Bernard

2013-04-01

The solar wind is known to be composed of several different types of wind. Their respective differences in speed gives rise to the somewhat crude categories slow and fast wind. However, slow and fast winds also differ in their composition and plasma properties. While coronal holes are accepted as the origin of the fast wind (e.g. [Tu2005]), slow wind is hypothesized to emanate from different regions and to be caused by different mechanisms, although the average properties of slow wind are remarkably uniform. Models for the origin of the slow solar wind fall in three categories. In the first category, slow wind originates from the edges of coronal holes and is driven by reconnection of open field lines from the coronal hole with closed loops [Schwadron2005]. The second category relies on reconnection as well but places the source regions of the slow solar wind at the boundaries of active regions [Sakao2007]. A topological argument underlies the third group which requires that all coronal holes are connected by the so-called "S-web" as the driver of the slow solar wind [Antiochos2011]. Solar wind composition has been continuously measured by for example SOHO/CELIAS and ACE/SWICS. In this work we focus on the mass time-of-flight instrument of SOHO/CELIAS/MTOF [Hovestadt1995], which has been collecting data from 1996 to the present day. Whereas much attention in previous years has been focused on spectacular features of the solar wind like (interplanetary) coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) our main interest lies in understanding the slow solar wind. Although it is remarkably homogeneous in its average properties (e.g. [vonSteiger2000]) it contains many short term variations. This motivates us to investigate the slow solar wind on multiple timescales with a special focus on identifying individual stream with unusual compositions. A first step in this is to identify individual streams. A useful tool to do this reliably is specific entropy [Pagel2004]. Consequently, this leads to an extensive picture of individual streams from MTOF, which can be combined with observations from other spacecraft in the future. In particular, identifying and understanding short-term variations of the slow solar wind has the potential to help distinguishing between different possible source regions and mechanisms. Further, with the long term goal of identifying possible different source mechanisms or regions, we analyze and compare the properties of individual streams on short time scales to focus on significant deviations from the average properties of slow solar wind. References [Antiochos2011] SK Antiochos, Z. Mikic, VS Titov, R. Lionello, and JA Linker. A model for the sources of the slow solar wind. The Astrophysical Journal, 731(2):112, 2011. [Hovestadt1995] D. Hovestadt, M. Hilchenbach, A. Bürgi, B. Klecker, P. Laeverenz, M. Scholer, H. Grünwaldt, WI Axford, S. Livi, E. Marsch, et al. Celias-charge, element and isotope analysis system for soho. Solar Physics, 162(1):441-481, 1995. [Pagel2004] AC Pagel, NU Crooker, TH Zurbuchen, and JT Gosling. Correlation of solar wind entropy and oxygen ion charge state ratio. Journal of geophysical research, 109(A1):A01113, 2004. [Sakao2007] T. Sakao, R. Kano, N. Narukage, J. Kotoku, T. Bando, E.E. DeLuca, L.L. Lundquist, S. Tsuneta, L.K. Harra, Y. Katsukawa, et al. Continuous plasma outflows from the edge of a solar active region as a possible source of solar wind. Science, 318(5856):1585-1588, 2007. [Schwadron2005] NA Schwadron, DJ McComas, HA Elliott, G. Gloeckler, J. Geiss, and R. Von Steiger. Solar wind from the coronal hole boundaries. Journal of geophysical research, 110(A4):A04104, 2005. [Tu2005] C.Y. Tu, C. Zhou, E. Marsch, L.D. Xia, L. Zhao, J.X. Wang, and K. Wilhelm. Solar wind origin in coronal funnels. Science, 308(5721):519-523, 2005. [vonSteiger2000] R. Von Steiger, N. Schwadron, LA Fisk, J. Geiss, G. Gloeckler, S. Hefti, B. Wilken, RF Wimmer-Schweingruber, and TH Zurbuchen. Composition of quasi-stationary solar wind flows from ulysses/solar wind ion composition spectrometer. Journal of geophysical research, 105:27, 2000.

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

ababanin.com/ LONG-TERM GOALS The long-term goals of the present project are two: wind/wave climatology for the Arctic Seas, and their current...OBJECTIVES The wind/wave climatology for the Arctic Seas will be developed based on altimeter observations. It will have a major scientific and...applied significance as presently there is no reference climatology for this region of the ocean available. The new versions of wave models for the

A survey of solar wind conditions at 5 AU: A tool for interpreting solar wind-magnetosphere interactions at Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebert, Robert; Bagenal, Fran; McComas, David; Fowler, Christopher

2014-09-01

We examine Ulysses solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) observations at 5 AU for two ~13 month intervals during the rising and declining phases of solar cycle 23 and the predicted response of the Jovian magnetosphere during these times. The declining phase solar wind, composed primarily of corotating interaction regions and high-speed streams, was, on average, faster, hotter, less dense, and more Alfvénic relative to the rising phase solar wind, composed mainly of slow wind and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. Interestingly, none of solar wind and IMF distributions reported here were bimodal, a feature used to explain the bimodal distribution of bow shock and magnetopause standoff distances observed at Jupiter. Instead, many of these distributions had extended, non-Gaussian tails that resulted in large standard deviations and much larger mean over median values. The distribution of predicted Jupiter bow shock and magnetopause standoff distances during these intervals were also not bimodal, the mean/median values being larger during the declining phase by ~1 - 4%. These results provide data-derived solar wind and IMF boundary conditions at 5 AU for models aimed at studying solar wind-magnetosphere interactions at Jupiter and can support the science investigations of upcoming Jupiter system missions. Here, we provide expectations for Juno, which is scheduled to arrive at Jupiter in July 2016. Accounting for the long-term decline in solar wind dynamic pressure reported by McComas et al. (2013), Jupiter’s bow shock and magnetopause is expected to be at least 8 - 12% further from Jupiter, if these trends continue.

Coaxial volumetric velocimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneiders, Jan F. G.; Scarano, Fulvio; Jux, Constantin; Sciacchitano, Andrea

2018-06-01

This study describes the working principles of the coaxial volumetric velocimeter (CVV) for wind tunnel measurements. The measurement system is derived from the concept of tomographic PIV in combination with recent developments of Lagrangian particle tracking. The main characteristic of the CVV is its small tomographic aperture and the coaxial arrangement between the illumination and imaging directions. The system consists of a multi-camera arrangement subtending only few degrees solid angle and a long focal depth. Contrary to established PIV practice, laser illumination is provided along the same direction as that of the camera views, reducing the optical access requirements to a single viewing direction. The laser light is expanded to illuminate the full field of view of the cameras. Such illumination and imaging conditions along a deep measurement volume dictate the use of tracer particles with a large scattering area. In the present work, helium-filled soap bubbles are used. The fundamental principles of the CVV in terms of dynamic velocity and spatial range are discussed. Maximum particle image density is shown to limit tracer particle seeding concentration and instantaneous spatial resolution. Time-averaged flow fields can be obtained at high spatial resolution by ensemble averaging. The use of the CVV for time-averaged measurements is demonstrated in two wind tunnel experiments. After comparing the CVV measurements with the potential flow in front of a sphere, the near-surface flow around a complex wind tunnel model of a cyclist is measured. The measurements yield the volumetric time-averaged velocity and vorticity field. The measurements of the streamlines in proximity of the surface give an indication of the skin-friction lines pattern, which is of use in the interpretation of the surface flow topology.

The economics and environmental impacts of large-scale wind power in a carbon constrained world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Decarolis, Joseph Frank

Serious climate change mitigation aimed at stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will require a radical shift to a decarbonized energy supply. The electric power sector will be a primary target for deep reductions in CO2 emissions because electric power plants are among the largest and most manageable point sources of emissions. With respect to new capacity, wind power is currently one of the most inexpensive ways to produce electricity without CO2 emissions and it may have a significant role to play in a carbon constrained world. Yet most research in the wind industry remains focused on near term issues, while energy system models that focus on century-long time horizons undervalue wind by imposing exogenous limits on growth. This thesis fills a critical gap in the literature by taking a closer look at the cost and environmental impacts of large-scale wind. Estimates of the average cost of wind generation---now roughly 4¢/kWh---do not address the cons arising from the spatial distribution and intermittency of wind. This thesis develops a theoretical framework for assessing the intermittency cost of wind. In addition, an economic characterization of a wind system is provided in which long-distance electricity transmission, storage, and gas turbines are used to supplement variable wind power output to meet a time-varying load. With somewhat optimistic assumptions about the cost of wind turbines, the use of wind to serve 50% of demand adds ˜1--2¢/kWh to the cost of electricity, a cost comparable to that of other large-scale low carbon technologies. This thesis also explores the environmental impacts posed by large-scale wind. Though avian mortality and noise caused controversy in the early years of wind development, improved technology and exhaustive siting assessments have minimized their impact. The aesthetic valuation of wind farms can be improved significantly with better design, siting, construction, and maintenance procedures, but opposition may increase as wind is developed on a large scale. Finally, this thesis summarizes collaborative work utilizing general circulation models to determine whether wind turbines have an impact of climate. The results suggest that the climatic impact is non-negligible at continental scales, but further research is warranted.

High charge state carbon and oxygen ions in Earth's equatorial quasi-trapping region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christon, S. P.; Hamilton, D. C.; Gloeckler, G.; Eastmann, T. E.

1994-01-01

Observations of energetic (1.5 - 300 keV/e) medium-to-high charge state (+3 less than or equal to Q less than or equal to +7) solar wind origin C and O ions made in the quasi-trapping region (QTR) of Earth's magnetosphere are compared to ion trajectories calculated in model equatorial magnetospheric magnetic and electric fields. These comparisons indicate that solar wind ions entering the QTR on the nightside as an energetic component of the plasma sheet exit the region on the dayside, experiencing little or no charge exchange on the way. Measurements made by the CHarge Energy Mass (CHEM) ion spectrometer on board the Active Magnetospheric Particle Tracer Explorer/Charge Composition Explorer (AMPTE/CCE) spacecraft at 7 less than L less than 9 from September 1984 to January 1989 are the source of the new results contained herein: quantitative long-term determination of number densities, average energies, energy spectra, local time distributions, and their variation with geomagnetic disturbance level as indexed by Kp. Solar wind primaries (ions with charge states unchanged) and their secondaries (ions with generally lower charge states produced from primaries in the magnetosphere via charge exchange)are observed throughout the QTR and have distinctly different local time variations that persist over the entire 4-year analysis interval. During Kp larger than or equal to 3 deg intervals, primary ion (e.g., O(+6)) densities exhibit a pronounced predawn maximum with average energy minimum and a broad near-local-noon density minimum with average energy maximum. Secondary ion (e.g., O(+5)) densities do not have an identifiable predawn peak, rather they have a broad dayside maximum peaked in local morning and a nightside minimum. During Kp less than or equal to 2(-) intervals, primary ion density peaks are less intense, broader in local time extent, and centered near midnight, while secondary ion density local time variations diminish. The long-time-interval baseline helps to refine and extend previous observations; for example, we show that ionospheric contribution to O(+3)) is negligible. Through comparison with model ion trajectories, we interpret the lack of pronounced secondary ion density peaks colocated with the primary density peaks to indicate that: (1) negligible charge exchange occurs at L greater than 7, that is, solar wind secondaries are produced at L less than 7, and (2) solar wind secondaries do not form a significant portion of the plasma sheet population injected into the QTR. We conclude that little of the energetic solar wind secondary ion population is recirculated through the magnetosphere.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Negative long term effects on harbour porpoises from a large scale offshore wind farm in the Baltic—evidence of slow recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teilmann, Jonas; Carstensen, Jacob

2012-12-01

Offshore wind farms constitute a new and fast growing industry all over the world. This study investigates the long term impact on harbour porpoises, Phocoena phocoena, for more than 10 years (2001-12) from the first large scale offshore wind farm in the world, Nysted Offshore Wind Farm, in the Danish western Baltic Sea (72 × 2.3 MW turbines). The wind farm was brought into full operation in December 2003. At six stations, acoustic porpoise detectors (T-PODs) were placed inside the wind farm area and at a reference area 10 km to the east, to monitor porpoise echolocation activity as a proxy of porpoise presence. A modified statistical BACI design was applied to detect changes in porpoise presence before, during and after construction of the wind farm. The results show that the echolocation activity has significantly declined inside Nysted Offshore Wind Farm since the baseline in 2001-2 and has not fully recovered yet. The echolocation activity inside the wind farm has been gradually increasing (from 11% to 29% of the baseline level) since the construction of the wind farm, possibly due to habituation of the porpoises to the wind farm or enrichment of the environment due to reduced fishing and to artificial reef effects.

Long term variabilities and tendencies of mesospheric lunar semidiurnal tide over Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sathishkumar, S.; Sridharan, S.; Muhammed Kutty, P. V.; Gurubaran, S.

2017-10-01

The medium frequency radar deployed at Tirunelveli (8.7°N, 77.8°E), which is located near the southmost tip of peninsular India, have been providing continuous data from the year 1993 to the year 2012 that helped to study the long term tendencies in the lunar tidal variabilities over this geographic location. In the present paper we present the results of seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities of lunar semi-diurnal tides in the upper mesosphere over Tirunelveli. The present study also includes comparison with model values. The study shows that the tidal amplitudes are larger in the meridional components of the mesospheric winds than the zonal winds. The seasonal variations of the tides are similar in both the components. The tides show maximum amplitudes of about ∼5 m/s in February/March, secondary maximum amplitudes of about ∼3 m/s in September and minimum amplitudes during summer months (May-August). The observed seasonal variation of the lunar tides do not compare well with Vial and Forbes (1994) model values, though it is consistent with earlier observations. The lunar tidal phase in meridional winds leads that in zonal winds from January to June and from September to November, while the latter leads the former during July/August. The lunar tides show large interannual variability. There are unusual amplitude enhancements in the lunar tide in meridional winds during the winters of 2006 and 2009, when major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred at high latitude northern hemisphere, whereas zonal lunar tide does not show any clear association with the SSW. Vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in zonal and meridional wind are in the range of 20-90 km. The vertical wavelengths of lunar tides in both zonal and meridional component are smaller in June and larger in November and December. The monthly mean zonal and meridional winds are subjected to regression analysis to study the tidal response to long-period oscillations, namely, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), solar cycle variation and El-nino southern oscillation (ENSO). It is found the lunar tide in both zonal and meridional winds show significant QBO response, whereas zonal tide only shows significant negative response to solar cycle and positive response to ENSO. Besides, zonal tide only shows significant long-term increasing trend.

Langmuir turbulence driven by beams in solar wind plasmas with long wavelength density fluctuations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krafft, C., E-mail: catherine.krafft@u-psud.fr; Universite´ Paris Sud, 91405 Orsay Cedex; Volokitin, A., E-mail: a.volokitin@mail.ru

2016-03-25

The self-consistent evolution of Langmuir turbulence generated by electron beams in solar wind plasmas with density inhomogeneities is calculated by numerical simulations based on a 1D Hamiltonian model. It is shown, owing to numerical simulations performed with parameters relevant to type III solar bursts’ conditions at 1 AU, that the presence of long-wavelength random density fluctuations of sufficiently large average level crucially modifies the well-known process of beam interaction with Langmuir waves in homogeneous plasmas.

Post-processing method for wind speed ensemble forecast using wind speed and direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofie Eide, Siri; Bjørnar Bremnes, John; Steinsland, Ingelin

2017-04-01

Statistical methods are widely applied to enhance the quality of both deterministic and ensemble NWP forecasts. In many situations, like wind speed forecasting, most of the predictive information is contained in one variable in the NWP models. However, in statistical calibration of deterministic forecasts it is often seen that including more variables can further improve forecast skill. For ensembles this is rarely taken advantage of, mainly due to that it is generally not straightforward how to include multiple variables. In this study, it is demonstrated how multiple variables can be included in Bayesian model averaging (BMA) by using a flexible regression method for estimating the conditional means. The method is applied to wind speed forecasting at 204 Norwegian stations based on wind speed and direction forecasts from the ECMWF ensemble system. At about 85 % of the sites the ensemble forecasts were improved in terms of CRPS by adding wind direction as predictor compared to only using wind speed. On average the improvements were about 5 %, but mainly for moderate to strong wind situations. For weak wind speeds adding wind direction had more or less neutral impact.

Identification and characterisation of local aerosol sources using high temporal resolution measurements.

PubMed

Contini, D; Donateo, A; Cesari, D; Belosi, F; Francioso, S

2010-09-01

Aerosol and gaseous pollution measurements were carried out at an urban background site in the south of Italy located near an industrial complex. Collection of 24 h samples of PM10 and PM2.5 and successive chemical quantification of metals were performed. Data were compared with measurements taken at a suburban background site, located at 25 km distance. The comparison showed the presence of an industrial contribution with a well defined chemical emission profile, similar, in terms of metals content, to urban emissions. As this made difficult the quantitative characterisation of the contribution of the two sources to atmospheric PM, a statistical method based on the treatment of data arising from high temporal resolution measurements was developed. Data were taken with a micrometeorological station based on an integrating nephelometer (Mie pDR-1200) for optical detection of PM2.5 concentration, with successive evaluation of vertical turbulent fluxes using the eddy-correlation method. Results show that the contribution from the two sources (urban emissions and industrial releases) have a very different behaviour, with the industrial contribution being present at high wind velocity with short concentration peaks (average duration 4 min) associated to strong positive and negative vertical fluxes. The estimated contribution to PM2.5 is 2.3% over long-term averages. The urban emissions are mainly present at low wind velocity, with longer concentration peaks in the morning and late evening hours, generally associated to small positive vertical fluxes. The characterisation of the contribution was performed using deposition velocity V(d) that is on average -3.5 mm s(-1) and has a diurnal pattern, with negligible values during the night and a minimum value of around -9 mm s(-1) late in the afternoon. Results show a correlation between V(d), friction velocity and wind velocity that could be the basis for a parameterisation of V(d) to be used in dispersion codes.

The Dust Storm Index (DSI): A method for monitoring broadscale wind erosion using meteorological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Loingsigh, T.; McTainsh, G. H.; Tews, E. K.; Strong, C. L.; Leys, J. F.; Shinkfield, P.; Tapper, N. J.

2014-03-01

Wind erosion of soils is a natural process that has shaped the semi-arid and arid landscapes for millennia. This paper describes the Dust Storm Index (DSI); a methodology for monitoring wind erosion using Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM) meteorological observational data since the mid-1960s (long-term), at continental scale. While the 46 year length of the DSI record is its greatest strength from a wind erosion monitoring perspective, there are a number of technical challenges to its use because when the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) recording protocols were established the use of the data for wind erosion monitoring was never intended. Data recording and storage protocols are examined, including the effects of changes to the definition of how observers should interpret and record dust events. A method is described for selecting the 180 long-term ABM stations used in this study and the limitations of variable observation frequencies between stations are in part resolved. The rationale behind the DSI equation is explained and the examples of temporal and spatial data visualisation products presented include; a long term national wind erosion record (1965-2011), continental DSI maps, and maps of the erosion event types that are factored into the DSI equation. The DSI is tested against dust concentration data and found to provide an accurate representation of wind erosion activity. As the ABM observational records used here were collected according to WMO protocols, the DSI methodology could be used in all countries with WMO-compatible meteorological observation and recording systems.

40 CFR 439.22 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... average limitation for BOD5 that is less than the equivalent of 45 mg/L. (1) The long-term average daily... subject to this subpart, calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the... this section is higher than a concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily...

40 CFR 439.22 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... average limitation for BOD5 that is less than the equivalent of 45 mg/L. (1) The long-term average daily... subject to this subpart, calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the... this section is higher than a concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily...

40 CFR 439.22 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... average limitation for BOD5 that is less than the equivalent of 45 mg/L. (1) The long-term average daily... subject to this subpart, calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the... this section is higher than a concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily...

Dynamic ocean topography from CryoSat-2: examining recent changes in ice-ocean stress and advancing a theory for Beaufort Gyre stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewey, S.; Morison, J.; Kwok, R.; Dickinson, S.; Morison, D.; Andersen, R.

2017-12-01

Model and sparse observational evidence has shown the ocean current speed in the Beaufort Gyre to have increased and recently stabilized. However, full-basin altimetric observations of dynamic ocean topography (DOT) and ocean surface currents have yet to be applied to the dynamics of gyre stabilization. DOT fields from retracked CryoSat-2 retrievals in Arctic Ocean leads have enabled us to calculate 2-month average ocean geostrophic currents. These currents are crucial to accurately computing ice-ocean stress, especially because they have accelerated so that their speed rivals that of the overlying sea ice. Given these observations, we can shift our view of the Beaufort Gyre as a system in which the wind drives the ice and the ice drives a passive ocean to a system with the following feedback: After initial input of energy by wind, ice velocity decreases due to water drag and internal ice stress and the ocean drives the ice, reversing Ekman pumping and decelerating the gyre. This reversal changes the system from a persistently convergent regime to one in which freshwater is released from the gyre and doming of the gyre decreases, without any change in long-term average wind stress curl. Through these processes, the ice-ocean stress provides a key feedback in Beaufort Gyre stabilization.

Long-term Internal Variability of the Tropical Pacific Atmosphere-Ocean System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

2016-04-01

The tropical Pacific has featured some remarkable trends during the recent decades such as an unprecedented strengthening of the Trade Winds, a strong cooling of sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central part, thereby slowing global warming and strengthening the zonal SST gradient, and highly asymmetric sea level trends with an accelerated rise relative to the global average in the western and a drop in the eastern part. These trends have been linked to an anomalously strong Pacific Walker Circulation, the major zonal atmospheric overturning cell in the tropical Pacific sector, but the origin of the strengthening is controversial. Here we address the question as to whether the recent decadal trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere-ocean system are within the range of internal variability, as simulated in long unforced integrations of global climate models. We show that the recent trends are still within the range of long-term internal decadal variability. Further, such variability strengthens in response to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations, which may further hinder detection of anthropogenic climate signals in that region.

Long-term implications of sustained wind power growth in the United States: Direct electric system impacts and costs

DOE PAGES

Lantz, Eric; Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan H.; ...

2016-07-22

This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (forthcoming) evaluates societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 GW would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3%, respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or with greatermore » advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030 the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050 wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million MW-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under “business-as-usual” conditions.« less

Local and regional effects of large scale atmospheric circulation patterns on winter wind power output in Western Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, Conor; O'Malley, Mark

2014-05-01

Recent studies (Brayshaw, 2009, Garcia-Bustamante, 2010, Garcia-Bustamante, 2013) have drawn attention to the sensitivity of wind speed distributions and likely wind energy power output in Western Europe to changes in low-frequency, large scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Wind speed variations and directional shifts as a function of the NAO state can be larger or smaller depending on the North Atlantic region that is considered. Wind speeds in Ireland and the UK for example are approximately 20 % higher during NAO + phases, and up to 30 % lower during NAO - phases relative to the long-term (30 year) climatological means. By contrast, in southern Europe, wind speeds are 15 % lower than average during NAO + phases and 15 % higher than average during NAO - phases. Crucially however, some regions such as Brittany in N.W. France have been identified in which there is negligible variability in wind speeds as a function of the NAO phase, as observed in the ERA-Interim 0.5 degree gridded reanalysis database. However, the magnitude of these effects on wind conditions is temporally and spatially non-stationary. As described by Comas-Bru and McDermott (2013) for temperature and precipitation, such non-stationarity is caused by the influence of two other patterns, the East Atlantic pattern, (EA), and the Scandinavian pattern, (SCA), which modulate the position of the NAO dipole. This phenomenon has also implications for wind speeds and directions, which has been assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset and the indices obtained from the PC analysis of sea level pressure over the Atlantic region. In order to study the implications for power production, the interaction of the NAO and the other teleconnection patterns with local topography was also analysed, as well as how these interactions ultimately translate into wind power output. The objective is to have a better defined relationship between wind speed and power output at a local level and a tool that wind farm developers could use to inform site selection. A particular priority was to assess how the potential wind power outputs over a 25-30 year windfarm lifetime in less windy, but resource-stable regions, compare with those from windier but more variable sites.

Regional Analysis of Long-term Local and Synoptic Effects on Wind Velocity and Energy Patterns in Complex Terrain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belu, R.; Koracin, D. R.

2017-12-01

Investments in renewable energy are justified in both environmental and economic terms. Climate change risks call for mitigation strategies aimed to reduce pollutant emissions, while the energy supply is facing high uncertainty by the current or future global economic and political contexts. Wind energy is playing a strategic role in the efforts of any country for sustainable development and energy supply security. Wind energy is a weather and climate-dependent resource, having a natural spatio-temporal variability at time scales ranging from fraction of seconds to seasons and years, while at spatial scales is strongly affected by the topography and vegetation. Main objective of the study is to investigate spatio-temporal characteristics of the wind velocity in the Southwest U.S., that are relevant to wind energy assessment, analysis, development, operation, and grid integration, by using long-term multiple meteorological tower observations. Wind velocity data and other meteorological parameters from five towers, located near Tonopah, Nevada, operated between 2003 to 2008, and from three towers are located in Carson Valley, Nevada, operated between 2006 and 2014 were used in this study. Multi-annual wind speed data collected did not show significant increase trends with increasing elevation; the differences are mainly governed by the topographic complexity, including local atmospheric circulations. Auto- and cross-correlations show a strong coherence between the wind speed and direction with slowly decreasing amplitude of the multi-day periodicity with increasing lag periods. Besides pronounced diurnal periodicity at all locations, detrended fluctuation analysis also showed significant seasonal and annual periodicities, and long-memory persistence with similar characteristics. In spite of significant differences in mean wind speeds among the towers, due to location specifics, the relatively high auto- and cross-correlation coefficients among the towers indicate that the regional synoptic processes are dominant for wind variability.

A novel application of artificial neural network for wind speed estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Da; Wang, Jianzhou

2017-05-01

Providing accurate multi-steps wind speed estimation models has increasing significance, because of the important technical and economic impacts of wind speed on power grid security and environment benefits. In this study, the combined strategies for wind speed forecasting are proposed based on an intelligent data processing system using artificial neural network (ANN). Generalized regression neural network and Elman neural network are employed to form two hybrid models. The approach employs one of ANN to model the samples achieving data denoising and assimilation and apply the other to predict wind speed using the pre-processed samples. The proposed method is demonstrated in terms of the predicting improvements of the hybrid models compared with single ANN and the typical forecasting method. To give sufficient cases for the study, four observation sites with monthly average wind speed of four given years in Western China were used to test the models. Multiple evaluation methods demonstrated that the proposed method provides a promising alternative technique in monthly average wind speed estimation.

Particle number concentrations near the Rome-Ciampino city airport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stafoggia, M.; Cattani, G.; Forastiere, F.; Di Menno di Bucchianico, A.; Gaeta, A.; Ancona, C.

2016-12-01

Human exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) has been postulated to be associated with adverse health effects, and there is interest regarding possible measures to reduce primary emissions. One important source of UFP are airport activities, with aircraft take-offs being the most relevant one. We implemented two measurement campaigns of total particle number concentrations (PNC), a proxy for UFP, near a medium-size airport in central Italy. One-minute PNC averages were collected on June 2011 and January 2012 concurrently with 30-min average meteorological data on temperature and wind speed/direction. Data on minute-specific take-offs and landings were obtained by the airport authorities. We applied statistical regression models to relate PNC data to the presence of aircraft activities while adjusting for time trends and meteorology, and estimated the increases in PNC ±15 min before and after take-offs and landings. We repeated the analyses considering prevalent wind direction and by size of the aircraft. We estimated PNC increases of 5400 particles/cm3/minute during the 15 min before and after take-offs, with a peak of 19,000 particles/cm3/minute within 5 min after take-offs. Corresponding figures for landings were 1300 and 1000 particles, respectively. The highest PNC estimates were obtained when the prevailing wind came from the runway direction, and led to estimated PNC increases of 60,000 particles/cm3/minute within 5 min after take-offs. No main differences were noted from the exhaust of different types of aircrafts. The area surrounding Ciampino airport is densely inhabited, raising concerns about the potential adverse effects of long-term and short-term exposure to airport-borne UFP. A close monitoring of airport activities and emissions is mandatory to reduce the public health impact of the airport on the nearby population.

Influence of main forcing affecting the Tagus turbid plume under high river discharges using MODIS imagery

PubMed Central

Gómez-Gesteira, M.; Mendes, R.; deCastro, M.; Vaz, N.; Dias, J. M.

2017-01-01

The role of river discharge, wind and tide on the extension and variability of the Tagus River plume was analyzed from 2003 to 2015. This study was performed combining daily images obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor located onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. Composites were generated by averaging pixels with the same forcing conditions. River discharge shows a strong relation with the extension of the Tagus plume. The plume grows with the increasing river discharge and express a two day lag caused by the long residence time of water within the estuary. The Tagus turbid plume was found to be smaller under northerly and easterly winds, than under southerly and westerly winds. It is suggested that upwelling favoring winds provoke the offshore movement of the plume material with a rapidly decrease in turbidity values whereas downwelling favoring winds retain plume material in the north coast close to the Tagus mouth. Eastern cross-shore (oceanward) winds spread the plume seaward and to the north following the coast geometry, whereas western cross-shore (landward) winds keep the plume material in both alongshore directions occupying a large part of the area enclosed by the bay. Low tides produce larger and more turbid plumes than high tides. In terms of fortnightly periodicity, the maximum plume extension corresponding to the highest turbidity is observed during and after spring tides. Minimum plume extension associated with the lowest turbidity occurs during and after neap tides. PMID:29073209

Influence of main forcing affecting the Tagus turbid plume under high river discharges using MODIS imagery.

PubMed

Fernández-Nóvoa, D; Gómez-Gesteira, M; Mendes, R; deCastro, M; Vaz, N; Dias, J M

2017-01-01

The role of river discharge, wind and tide on the extension and variability of the Tagus River plume was analyzed from 2003 to 2015. This study was performed combining daily images obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor located onboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. Composites were generated by averaging pixels with the same forcing conditions. River discharge shows a strong relation with the extension of the Tagus plume. The plume grows with the increasing river discharge and express a two day lag caused by the long residence time of water within the estuary. The Tagus turbid plume was found to be smaller under northerly and easterly winds, than under southerly and westerly winds. It is suggested that upwelling favoring winds provoke the offshore movement of the plume material with a rapidly decrease in turbidity values whereas downwelling favoring winds retain plume material in the north coast close to the Tagus mouth. Eastern cross-shore (oceanward) winds spread the plume seaward and to the north following the coast geometry, whereas western cross-shore (landward) winds keep the plume material in both alongshore directions occupying a large part of the area enclosed by the bay. Low tides produce larger and more turbid plumes than high tides. In terms of fortnightly periodicity, the maximum plume extension corresponding to the highest turbidity is observed during and after spring tides. Minimum plume extension associated with the lowest turbidity occurs during and after neap tides.

The Impacts of Wind Speed Trends and Long-term Variability in Relation to Hydroelectric Reservoir Inflows on Wind Power in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, B.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Cooper, A.; Bailey, H. J.; Rucker, M.

2013-12-01

The use of wind power is growing rapidly in the Pacific Northwest (PNW ) due to environmental concerns, decreasing costs of implementation, strong wind speeds, and a desire to diversify electricity sources to minimize the impacts of streamflow variability on electricity prices and system flexibility. In hydroelectric dominated systems, like the PNW, the benefits of wind power can be maximized by accounting for the relationship between long term variability in wind speeds and reservoir inflows. Clean energy policies in British Columbia make the benefits of increased wind power generation during low streamflow periods particularly large, by preventing the overbuilding of marginal hydroelectric projects. The goal of this work was to quantify long-term relationships between wind speed and streamflow behavior in British Columbia. Wind speed data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and cumulative usable inflows (CUI) from BC Hydro were used to analyze 10m wind speed and density (WD) trends, WD-CUI correlations, and WD anomalies during low and high inflow periods in the PNW (40°N to 65°N, 110°W to 135°W) from 1979-2010. Statistically significant positive wind speed and density trends were found for most of the PNW, with the largest increases along the Pacific Coast. CUI-WD correlations were weakly positive for most regions, with the highest values along the US coast (r ~0.55), generally weaker correlations to the north, and negative correlations (r ~ -0.25) along BC's North Coast. When considering seasonal relationships, the Spring freshet was coincident with lower WD anomalies west of the Rocky Mountains and higher WDs to the east. A similar but opposite pattern was observed for low inflow winter months. When considering interannual variability, lowest inflow years experienced positive WD anomalies (up to 40% increases) for the North Coast. In highest inflow years, positive WD anomalies were widespread in the US and for smaller patches of central BC. By accounting for regional and temporal differences in the relationship between wind (WD) and streamflow (CUI) behaviour during wind farm site selection, the benefits of energy diversification can be maximized.

25 CFR 162.512 - How long may the term of a WEEL run?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false How long may the term of a WEEL run? 162.512 Section 162.512 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Weels § 162.512 How long may the term of a WEEL run? (a) A WEEL must...

25 CFR 162.512 - How long may the term of a WEEL run?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false How long may the term of a WEEL run? 162.512 Section 162.512 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Weels § 162.512 How long may the term of a WEEL run? (a) A WEEL must...

Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-12-01

Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate variability is low, and assess how species' potential distributions may have already shifted due recent climate change. However, long-term climate averages require less data and processing time and may be more readily available for some areas of interest. Where data on short-term climate variability are not available, long-term climate information is a sufficient predictor of species distributions in many cases. However, short-term climate variability data may provide information not captured with long-term climate data for use in SDMs. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Comprehensive Renewable Energy Feasibility Study for Sealaska Corporation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Lynette; John Wade: Larry Coupe

2006-06-30

The purposes of this project were: (1) to conduct a comprehensive feasibility study to determine the potential sustainability of wind and/or small hydroelectric power plants on Southeast Alaska native village lands, and (2) to provide the villages with an understanding of the requirements, costs, and benefits of developing and operating wind or small hydroelectric power plants. The program was sponsored by the Tribal Energy program, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, US Department of Energy. The Contractor was Sealaska Corporation, the Regional Native Corporation for Southeast Alaska that includes 12 village/urban corporations. Most villages are isolated from any centralmore » electric transmission and use diesel-electric systems for power generation, making them prime candidates for deploying renewable energy sources. Wind Energy - A database was assembled for all of the candidate sites in SE Alaska, including location, demographics, electricity supply and demand, existing and planned transmission interties with central generation, topographical maps, macro wind data, and contact personnel. Field trips were conducted at the five candidate villages that were deemed most likely to have viable wind resources. Meetings were held with local village and utility leaders and the requirements, costs, and benefits of having local renewable energy facilities were discussed. Two sites were selected for anemometry based on their needs and the probability of having viable wind resources – Yakutat and Hoonah. Anemometry was installed at both sites and at least one year of wind resource data was collected from the sites. This data was compared to long-term data from the closest weather stations. Reports were prepared by meteorologist John Wade that contains the details of the measured wind resources and energy production projections. Preliminary financial analysis of hypothetical wind power stations were prepared to gauge the economic viability of installing such facilities at each site. The average wind resources measured at Yakutat at three sites were very marginal, with an annual average of 4.0 mps (9 mph) at 60 meters above ground level. At Hoonah, the average wind resources measured on the 1,417 ft elevation ridge above the village were very low, with a six-month average of 3.9 mps (8.7 mph) at 60 meters above ground level. The wind resources at both sites were not sufficient to justify installation of wind turbines. In summary, although there are several known windy spots in SE Alaska (e.g., Skagway), we were not able to identify any isolated Native American villages that utilize diesel-electric power generation that have commercially viable wind resources. Small Hydroelectric - The study focused on the communities associated with Sealaska Corporation that use diesel-electric for electricity and have a potential for hydroelectric power generation. Most of them have had at least an assessment of hydroelectric potential, and a few have had feasibility studies of potential hydroelectric projects. Although none of the sites examined are financially viable without substantial grant funding, Hoonah, Kake, and Yakutat appear to have the best potential for new hydro facilities.« less

Mass-loading of the solar wind at 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behar, E.; Lindkvist, J.; Nilsson, H.; Holmström, M.; Stenberg-Wieser, G.; Ramstad, R.; Götz, C.

2016-11-01

Context. The first long-term in-situ observation of the plasma environment in the vicinity of a comet, as provided by the European Rosetta spacecraft. Aims: Here we offer characterisation of the solar wind flow near 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (67P) and its long term evolution during low nucleus activity. We also aim to quantify and interpret the deflection and deceleration of the flow expected from ionization of neutral cometary particles within the undisturbed solar wind. Methods: We have analysed in situ ion and magnetic field data and combined this with hybrid modeling of the interaction between the solar wind and the comet atmosphere. Results: The solar wind deflection is increasing with decreasing heliocentric distances, and exhibits very little deceleration. This is seen both in observations and in modeled solar wind protons. According to our model, energy and momentum are transferred from the solar wind to the coma in a single region, centered on the nucleus, with a size in the order of 1000 km. This interaction affects, over larger scales, the downstream modeled solar wind flow. The energy gained by the cometary ions is a small fraction of the energy available in the solar wind. Conclusions: The deflection of the solar wind is the strongest and clearest signature of the mass-loading for a small, low-activity comet, whereas there is little deceleration of the solar wind.

Wind Erosion

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-07-02

Long term winds have etched the surface in Memnonia Sulci. Partial cemented surface materials are easily eroded by the wind, forming linear ridges called yardangs. The multiple direction of yardangs in this VIS image indicate that there were at least two different wind directions in this area. Orbit Number: 59217 Latitude: -8.33112 Longitude: 186.506 Instrument: VIS Captured: 2015-04-20 15:12 http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19502

IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, E.; Wiser, R.; Hand, M.

2012-05-01

Over the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost of energy reductions. In this summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, titled 'The Cost of Wind Energy,' we provide a review of historical costs, evaluate near-term market trends, review the methods used to estimate long-term cost trajectories, and summarize the range of costs projected for onshore wind energy across an arraymore » of forward-looking studies and scenarios. We also highlight the influence of high-level market variables on both past and future wind energy costs.« less

Dynamics of cyanobacterial bloom formation during short-term hydrodynamic fluctuation in a large shallow, eutrophic, and wind-exposed Lake Taihu, China.

PubMed

Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Luo, Liancong; Ding, Yanqing; Bian, Geya

2013-12-01

Short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations caused by extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide because of global climate change, and such fluctuations can strongly influence cyanobacterial blooms. In this study, the cyanobacterial bloom disappearance and reappearance in Lake Taihu, China, in response to short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations, was investigated by field sampling, long-term ecological records, high-frequency sensors and MODIS satellite images. The horizontal drift caused by the dominant easterly wind during the phytoplankton growth season was mainly responsible for cyanobacterial biomass accumulation in the western and northern regions of the lake and subsequent bloom formation over relatively long time scales. The cyanobacterial bloom changed slowly under calm or gentle wind conditions. In contrast, the short-term bloom events within a day were mainly caused by entrainment and disentrainment of cyanobacterial colonies by wind-induced hydrodynamics. Observation of a westerly event in Lake Taihu revealed that when the 30 min mean wind speed (flow speed) exceeded the threshold value of 6 m/s (5.7 cm/s), cyanobacteria in colonies were entrained by the wind-induced hydrodynamics. Subsequently, the vertical migration of cyanobacterial colonies was controlled by hydrodynamics, resulting in thorough mixing of algal biomass throughout the water depth and the eventual disappearance of surface blooms. Moreover, the intense mixing can also increase the chance for forming larger and more cyanobacterial colonies, namely, aggregation. Subsequently, when the hydrodynamics became weak, the cyanobacterial colonies continuously float upward without effective buoyancy regulation, and cause cyanobacterial bloom explosive expansion after the westerly. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the strong wind happening frequently during April and October can be an important cause of the formation and expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.

Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

2011-01-01

Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw process... concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily COD load in the raw (untreated...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw process... concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily COD load in the raw (untreated...

A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

2011-12-01

This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

Expanding production of the United States’ vast shale gas reserves in recent years has put the country on a path towards greater energy independence, enhanced economic prosperity, and (potentially) reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and other pollutants. The corresponding expansion of gas-fired generation in the power sector – driven primarily by lower natural gas prices – has also made it easier and cheaper to integrate large amounts of variable renewable generation, such as wind power, into the grid. At the same time, however, low natural gas prices have suppressed wholesale power prices across the nation, making it harder for windmore » and other renewable power technologies to compete on cost alone – even despite their recent cost and performance improvements. A near-term softening in policy-driven demand from state-level renewable energy mandates, coupled with a possible phase-out of a key federal tax incentive over time, may exacerbate wind’s challenge in the coming years. As wind power finds it more difficult to compete with gas-fired generation on the basis of near-term cost, it will increasingly need to rely on other attributes, such as its “portfolio” or “hedge” value, as justification for inclusion in the power mix. This article investigates the degree to which wind power can still serve as a cost-effective hedge against rising natural gas prices, given the significant reduction in gas prices in recent years, coupled with expectations that prices will remain low for many years to come. It does so by drawing upon a rich sample of long-term power purchase agreements (“PPAs”) between existing wind generators and electric utilities in the U.S., and comparing the contracted prices at which utilities will be buying wind power from these existing projects for decades to come to a variety of long-term projections of the fuel costs of gas-fired generation modeled by the Energy Information Administration (“EIA”).« less

Dispersal limitation induces long-term biomass collapse in overhunted Amazonian forests.

PubMed

Peres, Carlos A; Emilio, Thaise; Schietti, Juliana; Desmoulière, Sylvain J M; Levi, Taal

2016-01-26

Tropical forests are the global cornerstone of biological diversity, and store 55% of the forest carbon stock globally, yet sustained provisioning of these forest ecosystem services may be threatened by hunting-induced extinctions of plant-animal mutualisms that maintain long-term forest dynamics. Large-bodied Atelinae primates and tapirs in particular offer nonredundant seed-dispersal services for many large-seeded Neotropical tree species, which on average have higher wood density than smaller-seeded and wind-dispersed trees. We used field data and models to project the spatial impact of hunting on large primates by ∼ 1 million rural households throughout the Brazilian Amazon. We then used a unique baseline dataset on 2,345 1-ha tree plots arrayed across the Brazilian Amazon to model changes in aboveground forest biomass under different scenarios of hunting-induced large-bodied frugivore extirpation. We project that defaunation of the most harvest-sensitive species will lead to losses in aboveground biomass of between 2.5-5.8% on average, with some losses as high as 26.5-37.8%. These findings highlight an urgent need to manage the sustainability of game hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical forests, and place full biodiversity integrity, including populations of large frugivorous vertebrates, firmly in the agenda of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs.

On the Beauty of Yardangs

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-05-06

Some geological materials (like solid rock) are incredibly tough, but others (like piles of volcanic ash) are quite soft. Some materials are soft enough that they can be eroded by the wind alone and yield landscapes that look like what we see in this HiRISE image. The long straight ridges seen here are called yardangs and they form on Mars (and Earth) when the wind strips away the inter-ridge material. This process is greatly aided when the wind is also blowing sand along. The sand grains do an effective job at stripping away loose material: these ridges are literally being sandblasted. Yardangs are useful features to recognize because the tell us the direction the wind is blowing in. They take a long time to form so this direction is the dominant wind orientation averaged over a long period of time (which might be quite different that the winds on Mars today). These yardangs also tell us that the surface here is made up of loose weak material and this information, in conjunction with other data, can tell us what the material is composed of and what the history of this particular site on Mars has been. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA19457

Long-term changes in solar wind elemental and isotopic ratios - A comparison of two lunar ilmenites of different antiquities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Becker, Richard H.; Pepin, Robert O.

1989-01-01

The solar wind components in two lunar ilmenites are examined. The noble gas and nitrogen elemental and isotopic abundances of lunar regolith breccia sample 79035, assumed to have been exposed to solar winds more than 2 Ga ago, are analyzed using stepwise oxidation and pyrolysis. This sample is compared with the data of Frick et al. (1988) for soil sample 71501, recently exposed to solar winds. It is observed that the two elements differ in terms of xenon abundance, helium and neon isotopic rates, and He/Ar elemental ratios. It is concluded that there have been isotopic and elemental abundance changes in solar wind composition over time.

25 CFR 162.540 - How long may the term of a WSR lease run?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false How long may the term of a WSR lease run? 162.540 Section 162.540 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Wsr Leases § 162.540 How long may the term of a WSR lease run? (a) A WSR...

25 CFR 162.540 - How long may the term of a WSR lease run?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false How long may the term of a WSR lease run? 162.540 Section 162.540 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR LAND AND WATER LEASES AND PERMITS Wind and Solar Resource Leases Wsr Leases § 162.540 How long may the term of a WSR lease run? (a) A WSR...

Temporal variability in wind-wave climate and its validation with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas for the head Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Anindita; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.

2017-08-01

The head Bay region bordering the northern Bay of Bengal is a densely populated area with a complex geomorphologic setting, and highly vulnerable to extreme water levels along with other factors like sea level rise and impact of tropical cyclones. The influence of climate change on wind-wave regime from this region of Bay of Bengal is not known well and that requires special attention, and there is a need to perform its long-term assessment for societal benefits. This study provides a comprehensive analysis on the temporal variability in domain averaged wind speed, significant wave height (SWH) utilizing satellite altimeter data (1992-2012) and mean wave period using ECMWF reanalysis products ERA-Interim (1992-2012) and ERA-20C (1992-2010) over this region. The SWH derived from WAVEWATCH III (WW3) model along with the ERA-Interim reanalysis supplements the observed variability in satellite altimeter observations. Further, the study performs an extensive error estimation of SWH and mean wave period with ESSO-NIOT wave atlas that shows a high degree of under-estimation in the wave atlas mean wave period. Annual mean and wind speed maxima from altimeter show an increasing trend, and to a lesser extent in the SWH. Interestingly, the estimated trend is higher for maxima compared to the mean conditions. Analysis of decadal variability exhibits an increased frequency of higher waves in the present decade compared to the past. Linear trend analysis show significant upswing in spatially averaged ERA-20C mean wave period, whereas the noticed variations are marginal in the ERA-Interim data. A separate trend analysis for the wind-seas, swell wave heights and period from ERA-20C decipher the fact that distant swells governs the local wind-wave climatology over the head Bay region, and over time the swell activity have increased in this region.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Desai, Mihir I., E-mail: mdesai@swri.edu; Department of Physics & Astronomy, University of Texas at San Antonio, TX 782, USA.; Dayeh, Maher A.

Observations over the last decade have shown that suprathermal ions with energies above that of the core or bulk solar wind protons (i.e., ~1-2 keV/nucleon) are an important constituent of the overall seed population that is accelerated in solar and interplanetary events. Despite the recent recognition of their importance, the origin of these populations and the method of their acceleration remains poorly understood. This is partly due to the fact that these particles exist in the so-called tail regions of the corresponding solar wind distributions where high temporal and sensitivity measurements are sparse. Moreover, observations comprising long-term averages (between hoursmore » to more than a day) show conflicting results. For instance, below ~40 keV/nucleon the ion differential intensities in the solar wind frame appear to exhibit a near-constant power-law spectral slope of ~1.5, perhaps indicating a universal acceleration mechanism. In contrast, at energies greater than ~40 keV/nucleon, the ion composition changes with solar activity, and the energy spectra are significantly steeper, perhaps indicating that the suprathermal pool of material also comprises lower-energy particle populations accelerated in corotating interaction regions, interplanetary shocks, and solar energetic particle events. This paper discusses key observations of suprathermal ions and electrons in terms of state-of-the-art theories and models that have been put forward to account for their origin and acceleration.« less

40 CFR 439.22 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... limitation for BOD5 that is less than the equivalent of 45 mg/L. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of... to this subpart, calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the... this section is higher than a concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily...

40 CFR 439.52 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

..., kg) per day, must reflect not less than 74 percent reduction in the long-term average daily COD load... long-term average daily BOD5 or COD mass loading of the raw process wastewater (i.e., the base number..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 or COD load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system...

40 CFR 439.22 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... limitation for BOD5 that is less than the equivalent of 45 mg/L. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of... to this subpart, calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the... this section is higher than a concentration value reflecting a reduction in the long-term average daily...

40 CFR 439.52 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

..., kg) per day, must reflect not less than 74 percent reduction in the long-term average daily COD load... long-term average daily BOD5 or COD mass loading of the raw process wastewater (i.e., the base number..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 or COD load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system...

40 CFR 439.52 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

..., kg) per day, must reflect not less than 74 percent reduction in the long-term average daily COD load... long-term average daily BOD5 or COD mass loading of the raw process wastewater (i.e., the base number..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 or COD load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

40 CFR 439.12 - Effluent limitations attainable by the application of the best practicable control technology...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... than 90 percent reduction in the long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw (untreated) process wastewater, multiplied by a variability factor of 3.0. (1) The long-term average daily BOD5 load of the raw..., calculation of the long-term average daily BOD5 load in the influent to the wastewater treatment system must...

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the USDA Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and USDI Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a broad and coordinated research program to develop wind ...

New insights of seismic disturbances due to wind turbines - long and short term measurements in SW Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zieger, Toni; Ritter, Joachim

2017-04-01

Within the scope of the project "TremAc", we present new insights of ground motion disturbances due to wind turbines (WTs) in the vicinity of the town of Landau, SW Germany. The main goal of this project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, is the detection of influences from WTs on human health and buildings in an interdisciplinary way. The interaction between WTs, humans, infrastructure (incl.seismic stations) becomes more and more an important role with the increase of installed WTs. We present averaged one hour long PSD-spectra in a frequency range from 0.5 Hz to 7 Hz depending on the wind speed before and after the installation of characteristic WTs, especially for seismic borehole stations, during one month measurements. The results show a clear increase of the ground motion and a related disturbance of the seismic recordings. The station threshold for signal detection below 2 Hz is reduced after the installation of a new wind farm in the area around Landau. This effect occurs even up to distances to the WTs of more than 5 kilometers. The increasing noise level depends also clearly on wind speed, which indicate also the WT origin related with the signals. Using short-term measurements during few hours, we are able to determine the maximum of the PSD values for different discrete frequencies as function of distance to the next WT and to fit a power-law decay curve proportional to 1/rb to the data. In this way we can differentiate between near- and far-field effects of the seismic wave propagation of WTs. A clear frequency dependent decay can be observed, for which high frequencies are more attenuated than lower frequencies, probably due to scattering processes. The new results will help for a better understanding of WTs as a seismic noise source and their interaction with nearby seismic stations and other infrastructure. Seismic data were provided by "Erdbebendienst Südwest", "Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources" and "KArlsruher BroadBand Array (KABBA)". Meteorological data were provided by "KIT Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Department Troposphere Research".

Scientific motivation for ADM/Aeolus mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Källén, Erland

2018-04-01

The ADM/Aeolus wind lidar mission will provide a global coverage of atmospheric wind profiles. Atmospheric wind observations are required for initiating weather forecast models and for predicting and monitoring long term climate change. Improved knowledge of the global wind field is widely recognised as fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. In particular over tropical areas there is a need for better wind data leading to improved medium range (3-10 days) weather forecasts over the whole globe.

A 15-year climatology of wind pattern impacts on surface ozone in Houston, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souri, Amir Hossein; Choi, Yunsoo; Li, Xiangshang; Kotsakis, Alexander; Jiang, Xun

2016-06-01

Houston is recognized for its large petrochemical industrial facilities providing abundant radicals for tropospheric ozone formation. Fortunately, maximum daily 8-h average (MDA8) surface ozone concentrations have declined in Houston (- 0.6 ± 0.3 ppbv yr- 1) during the summers (i.e., May to September) of 2000 to 2014, possibly due to the reductions in precursor emissions by effective control policies. However, it is also possible that changes in meteorological variables have affected ozone concentrations. This study focused on the impact of long-term wind patterns which have the highest impact on ozone in Houston. The analysis of long-term wind patterns can benefit surface ozone studies by 1) providing wind patterns that distinctly changed ozone levels, 2) investigating the frequency of patterns and the respective changes and 3) estimating ozone trends in specific wind patterns that local emissions are mostly involved, thus separating emissions impacts from meteorology to some extent. To this end, the 900-hPa flow patterns in summers of 2000 to 2014 were clustered in seven classes (C1-C7) by deploying an unsupervised partitioning method. We confirm the characteristics of the clusters from a backward trajectory analysis, monitoring networks, and a regional chemical transport model simulation. The results indicate that Houston has experienced a statistically significant downward trend (- 0.6 ± 0.4 day yr- 1) of the cluster of weak easterly and northeasterly days (C4), when the highest fraction of ozone exceedances (MDA8 > 70 ppbv) occurred. This suggests that the reduction in ozone precursors was not the sole reason for the decrease in ozone exceedance days (- 1.5 ± 0.6 day yr- 1). Further, to examine the efficiency of control policies intended to reduce the amount of ozone, we estimated the trend of MDA8 ozone in C4 and C5 (weak winds) days when local emissions are primarily responsible for high ambient ozone levels. Both C4 and C5 show a large reduction in the 95th percentile and summertime trends mainly due to effective control strategies. Based on the 5th percentile daytime ozone for C1 (strong southeasterly wind) in coastal sites, this study found that the cleanest air masses that Houston received became more polluted during the summer of 2000-2014 by 1-3 ppbv. Though this study focused on Houston, the analysis method presented could generally be used to estimate ozone trends in other regions where surface ozone is dominantly influenced by both wind patterns and local emissions.

IGR J16318-4848: 7 Years of INTEGRAL Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barragan, Laura; Wilms, Joern; kreykenbohm, Ingo; Hanke, manfred; Fuerst, Felix; Pottschmidt, Katja; Rothschild, Richard

2011-01-01

Since the discovery of IGR 116318-4848 in 2003 January, INTEGRAL has accumulated more than 5.8 Ms in IBIS/ISGRI. We present the first extensive analysis of the archival INTEGRAL data (IBIS/ISGRI, and JEM-X when available) for this source, together with the observations carried out by XMM-Newton (twice in 2003, and twice in 2004) and Suzaku (2006). The source is very variable in the long-term, with periods of low activity, where the source is almost not detected, and flares with a luminosity approximately 10 times greater than its average value (5.4 cts/s). IGR 116318-4848 is a HMXB containing a sgB[e] star and a compact object (most probably a neutron star) deeply embedded in the stellar wind of the mass donor. The variability of the source (also in the short-term) can be ascribed to the wind of the optical star being very clumpy. We study the variation of the spectral parameters in time scales of INTEGRAL revolutions. The photoelectric absorption is, with NH around 10(exp 24)/ square cm, unusually high. During brighter phases the strong K-alpha iron line known from XMM-Newton and Suzaku observations is also detectable with the JEM-X instrument.

77 FR 46058 - Utility Scale Wind Towers From the Socialist Republic of Vietnam: Preliminary Determination of...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-02

... Sale, Comment 1. Sales during the POI were made pursuant to long-term contracts, and/or purchase orders..., the material terms appear to be fixed, pursuant to the long-term agreement, and are reflected in the...: Dynamic Random Access Memory Semiconductors of One Megabit and Above From the Republic of Korea, 57 FR...

Wave and Wind Model Performance Metrics Tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, J. K.; Wang, D. W.

2016-02-01

Continual improvements and upgrades of Navy ocean wave and wind models are essential to the assurance of battlespace environment predictability of ocean surface wave and surf conditions in support of Naval global operations. Thus, constant verification and validation of model performance is equally essential to assure the progress of model developments and maintain confidence in the predictions. Global and regional scale model evaluations may require large areas and long periods of time. For observational data to compare against, altimeter winds and waves along the tracks from past and current operational satellites as well as moored/drifting buoys can be used for global and regional coverage. Using data and model runs in previous trials such as the planned experiment, the Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real Time (DART), we demonstrated the use of accumulated altimeter wind and wave data over several years to obtain an objective evaluation of the performance the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model running in the Adriatic Sea. The assessment provided detailed performance of wind and wave models by using cell-averaged statistical variables maps with spatial statistics including slope, correlation, and scatter index to summarize model performance. Such a methodology is easily generalized to other regions and at global scales. Operational technology currently used by subject matter experts evaluating the Navy Coastal Ocean Model and the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model can be expanded to evaluate wave and wind models using tools developed for ArcMAP, a GIS application developed by ESRI. Recent inclusion of altimeter and buoy data into a format through the Naval Oceanographic Office's (NAVOCEANO) quality control system and the netCDF standards applicable to all model output makes it possible for the fusion of these data and direct model verification. Also, procedures were developed for the accumulation of match-ups of modelled and observed parameters to form a data base with which statistics are readily calculated, for the short or long term. Such a system has potential for a quick transition to operations at NAVOCEANO.

A study of the relationship between micropulsations and solar wind properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yedidia, B. A.; Lazarus, A. J.; Vellante, M.; Villante, U.

1991-01-01

A year-long comparison between daily averages of solar wind parameters obtained from the MIT experiment on IMP-8 and micropulsation measurements made by the Universita dell'Aquila has shown a correlation between solar wind speed and micropulsation power with peaks of the correlation coefficient greater than 0.8 in the period range from 20 to 40 s. Different behavior observed for different period bands suggests that the shorter period activity tends to precede the highest values of the solar wind speed while the longer period activity tends to persist for longer intervals within high velocity solar wind streams. A comparison with simultaneous interplanetary magnetic field measurements supports the upstream origin of the observed ground pulsations.

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

2016 Wind Technologies Market Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan H.; Bolinger, Mark

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Wind Technologies Market Report provides an annual overview of trends in the U.S. wind power market. You can find the report, a presentation, and a data file on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available in the Data Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s report include: -Wind power additions continued at a rapid clip in 2016: $13 billion was invested in new wind power plants in 2016. In 2016, wind energy contributed 5.6% of the nation’s electricity supply, more than 10% of total electricity generation in fourteen states, and 29% tomore » 37% in three of those states—Iowa, South Dakota, and Kansas. -Bigger turbines are enhancing wind project performance: Increased blade lengths, in particular, have dramatically increased wind project capacity factors, one measure of project performance. For example, the average 2016 capacity factor among projects built in 2014 and 2015 was 42.6%, compared to an average of 32.1% among projects built from 2004 to 2011 and 25.4% among projects built from 1998 to 2001. -Low wind turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs: Wind turbine prices have fallen from their highs in 2008, to $800–$1,100/kW. Overall, the average installed cost of wind projects in 2016 was $1,590/kW, down $780/kW from the peak in 2009 and 2010. -Wind energy prices remain low: After topping out at nearly 7¢/kWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped to around 2¢/kWh—though this nationwide average is dominated by projects that hail from the lowest-priced Interior region of the country (such as Texas, Iowa, Oklahoma). These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, compare favorably to the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -The supply chain continued to adjust to swings in domestic demand for wind equipment: Wind sector employment reached a new high of more than 101,000 full-time workers at the end of 2016. For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>90%), towers (65-80%), and blades and hubs (50-70%), but is much lower (<20%) for most components internal to the turbine. -Continued strong growth in wind capacity is anticipated in the near term: With federal tax incentives still available, though declining, various forecasts for the domestic market show expected wind power capacity additions averaging more than 9,000 MW/year from 2017 to 2020.« less

Relationship between Relativistic Electron Flux in the Inner Magnetosphere and ULF Pulsation on the Ground Associated with Long-term Variations of Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kitamura, K.; Nagatsuma, T.; Troshichev, O. A.; Obara, T.; Koshiishi, H.; Saita, S.; Yoshikawa, A.; Yumoto, K.

2014-12-01

In the present study the relativistic electron flux (0.59-1.18MeV) measured by Standard Dose Monitor (SDOM) onboard DRTS (KODAMA) satellite at the Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) is analyzed to investigate the long term (from 2002 to 2014) variations of the electron flux enhancement (REF) during the passage of Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) and/or Coronal Mass Ejection (CMEs). The long term variations of the REF clearly shows the 27-days period associated with the high speed solar wind velocity caused by the CIRs, whereas it is very few that the enhancement of REF lasts for several days after passage of CMEs. The 27-days period enhancement of REF represents the quite strong peak in 2003 when the high speed stream of the solar wind were quit active. We also conducted the same analysis for the Pc5 pulsations observed on the ground. The ground magnetic variations data globally observed by National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) and International Center for Space Weather Science and Education (ICSWSE) Kyushu University are used to investigate the long term variations of Pc5 power. The same signature in the REF variations is shown in the time variability of the Pc5 power on the ground. These results indicate that the solar wind condition strongly affects the acceleration process of the relativistic electron flux by the ULF wave. In particular the dependence of the REF and Pc5 variations on the sector structures and their seasonal variations strongly suggest that the relationship between Pc5 and REF variations could be controlled by the Russell-McPherron effect.

Long-term forecasting of meteorological time series using Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woldesellasse, H. T.; Marpu, P. R.; Ouarda, T.

2016-12-01

Wind is one of the crucial renewable energy sources which is expected to bring solutions to the challenges of clean energy and the global issue of climate change. A number of linear and nonlinear multivariate techniques has been used to predict the stochastic character of wind speed. A wind forecast with good accuracy has a positive impact on the reduction of electricity system cost and is essential for the effective grid management. Over the past years, few studies have been done on the assessment of teleconnections and its possible effects on the long-term wind speed variability in the UAE region. In this study Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA) method is applied to study the relationship between global climate oscillation indices and meteorological variables, with a major emphasis on wind speed and wind direction, of Abu Dhabi, UAE. The wind dataset was obtained from six ground stations. The first mode of NLCCA is capable of capturing the nonlinear mode of the climate indices at different seasons, showing the symmetry between the warm states and the cool states. The strength of the nonlinear canonical correlation between the two sets of variables varies with the lead/lag time. The performance of the models is assessed by calculating error indices such as the root mean square error (RMSE) and Mean absolute error (MAE). The results indicated that NLCCA models provide more accurate information about the nonlinear intrinsic behaviour of the dataset of variables than linear CCA model in terms of the correlation and root mean square error. Key words: Nonlinear Canonical Correlation Analysis (NLCCA), Canonical Correlation Analysis, Neural Network, Climate Indices, wind speed, wind direction

The contribution of wind wave changes on diminishing ice period in Lake Pyhäjärvi during the last half-century.

PubMed

Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Huttula, Timo; Lindfors, Antti; Ventelä, Anne-Mari; Sheng, Yongwei; Ambrose, Richard F

2018-06-21

To address the contribution of long-term wind wave changes on diminishing ice period in Northern European lakes, an in situ observation of wind waves was conducted to calibrate a wind-wave numerical model for Lake Pyhäjärvi, which is the largest lake in southwest Finland. Using station-measured hydrometeorological data from 1963 to 2013 and model-simulated wind waves, correlation and regression analyses were conducted to assess the changing trend and main influences on ice period. Ice period in Lake Pyhäjärvi decreased significantly over 51 years (r = 0.47, P < 0.01). The analysis of main hydrometeorological factors to ice period showed that the significant air temperature rise is the main contributor for the diminishing of ice period in the lake. Besides air temperature, wind-induced waves can also weaken lake ice by increasing water mixing and lake ice breakage. The regression indicated that mean significant wave height in December and April was negatively related to ice period (r = - 0.48, P < 0.01). These results imply that long-term changes of wind waves related to climate change should be considered to fully understand the reduction of aquatic ice at high latitudes.

Haze variation in valley region its affecting factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Yinge; Zhao, Aling; Wang, Yan; Wang, Shaoxiong; Dang, Caoni

2018-02-01

The haze has a great harm on the environment and human health. Based on the daily meteorological observation data including visibility, relative humidity, wind speed, temperature, air pollution index and weather record of Baoji region in China, and using least squares method, wavelet and correlation analysis method, the temporal and spatial characteristics of haze were analyzed. While the factors affecting the haze change were discussed. The results showed that the haze mainly occurs in plain areas, and in hilly areas and mountain the haze frequency is relatively small. Overall the annual average haze is decreasing, especially in winter and spring the reduction trend of haze is most obvious, however, in summer haze is increasing. The haze has a 5-year short period and 10-year and 15-year long-term cycles change. Moreover, there was a significant negative correlation between temperature and wind speed with haze, while the relative humidity was significantly positively correlated with haze. These studies provide the basis for atmospheric environmental monitor and management.

Effects of prevailing winds on turbidity of a shallow estuary.

PubMed

Cho, Hyun Jung

2007-06-01

Estuarine waters are generally more turbid than lakes or marine waters due to greater algal mass and continual re-suspension of sediments. The varying effects of diurnal and seasonal prevailing winds on the turbidity condition of a wind-dominated estuary were investigated by spatial and statistical analyses of wind direction, water level, turbidity, chlorophyll a, and PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) collected in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, USA. The prolonged prevailing winds were responsible for the long-term, large-scale turbidity pattern of the estuary, whereas the short-term changes in wind direction had differential effects on turbidity and water level in varying locations. There were temporal and spatial changes in the relationship between vertical light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and turbidity, which indicate difference in phytoplankton and color also affect Kd. This study demonstrates that the effect of wind on turbidity and water level on different shores can be identified through system-specific analyses of turbidity patterns.

Effects of Prevailing Winds on Turbidity of a Shallow Estuary

PubMed Central

Cho, Hyun Jung

2007-01-01

Estuarine waters are generally more turbid than lakes or marine waters due to greater algal mass and continual re-suspension of sediments. The varying effects of diurnal and seasonal prevailing winds on the turbidity condition of a wind-dominated estuary were investigated by spatial and statistical analyses of wind direction, water level, turbidity, chlorophyll a, and PAR (Photosynthetically Active Radiation) collected in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, USA. The prolonged prevailing winds were responsible for the long-term, large-scale turbidity pattern of the estuary, whereas the short-term changes in wind direction had differential effects on turbidity and water level in varying locations. There were temporal and spatial changes in the relationship between vertical light attenuation coefficient (Kd) and turbidity, which indicate difference in phytoplankton and color also affect Kd. This study demonstrates that the effect of wind on turbidity and water level on different shores can be identified through system-specific analyses of turbidity patterns. PMID:17617683

Wind power prediction based on genetic neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Suhan

2017-04-01

The scale of grid connected wind farms keeps increasing. To ensure the stability of power system operation, make a reasonable scheduling scheme and improve the competitiveness of wind farm in the electricity generation market, it's important to accurately forecast the short-term wind power. To reduce the influence of the nonlinear relationship between the disturbance factor and the wind power, the improved prediction model based on genetic algorithm and neural network method is established. To overcome the shortcomings of long training time of BP neural network and easy to fall into local minimum and improve the accuracy of the neural network, genetic algorithm is adopted to optimize the parameters and topology of neural network. The historical data is used as input to predict short-term wind power. The effectiveness and feasibility of the method is verified by the actual data of a certain wind farm as an example.

Pervasive growth reduction in Norway spruce forests following wind disturbance.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Blennow, Kristina

2012-01-01

In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds--the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe--monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79 million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R(2) = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R(2) = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m(3) in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation.

Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Blennow, Kristina

2012-01-01

Background In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds – the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe – monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79·million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R2 = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R2 = 0.782). At the landscape scale, wind-related growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m3 in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation. PMID:22413012

Eddy-correlation measurements of fluxes of CO 2 and H 2O above a spruce stand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrom, A.; Schütz, C.; Tworek, T.; Morgenstern, K.; Oltchev, A.; Falk, M.; Constantin, J.; Gravenhorst, G.

1996-12-01

Atmospheric fluxes of CO 2 and H 2O above a mature spruce stand ( Picea abies (L.) Karst.) have been investigated using the eddy- correlation technique. A closed path sensor adapted to the special requirements of long-term studies has been developed and tested. Field measurements have been performed since April 1995. Estimates of fetch showed a very narrow source area dimension under instable stratification (≤ 200 m). Fetch requirements at night are not met in some directions. Energy balance closure was influenced systematically by the wind direction indicating a substantial attenuation of the vertical wind motion by the tower (up to 40 %). Even for optimal flow directions, energy balance closure was about 88%. Intercomparison of the used ultra sonic anemometer (USAT-3) with a GILL - anemometer showed systematically lower values of vertical wind speed fluctuations (13 %). Average CO 2-fluxes ranged between -13 at noon to 3 μ mol m-2, s-1 at night in summer. In November and December the stand released CO 2 on a daily basis. A preliminary estimate of the cumulative net carbon balance over the observed period of 9 months is 4-5 t, Cha-1.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

A probabilistic assessment of large scale wind power development for long-term energy resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Scott Warren

A steady decline in the cost of wind turbines and increased experience in their successful operation have brought this technology to the forefront of viable alternatives for large-scale power generation. Methodologies for understanding the costs and benefits of large-scale wind power development, however, are currently limited. In this thesis, a new and widely applicable technique for estimating the social benefit of large-scale wind power production is presented. The social benefit is based upon wind power's energy and capacity services and the avoidance of environmental damages. The approach uses probabilistic modeling techniques to account for the stochastic interaction between wind power availability, electricity demand, and conventional generator dispatch. A method for including the spatial smoothing effect of geographically dispersed wind farms is also introduced. The model has been used to analyze potential offshore wind power development to the south of Long Island, NY. If natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) are the alternative generation sources, wind power exhibits a negative social benefit due to its high capacity cost and the relatively low emissions of these advanced fossil-fuel technologies. Environmental benefits increase significantly if charges for CO2 emissions are included. Results also reveal a diminishing social benefit as wind power penetration increases. The dependence of wind power benefits on natural gas and coal prices is also discussed. In power systems with a high penetration of wind generated electricity, the intermittent availability of wind power may influence hourly spot prices. A price responsive electricity demand model is introduced that shows a small increase in wind power value when consumers react to hourly spot prices. The effectiveness of this mechanism depends heavily on estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities of aggregate electricity demand. This work makes a valuable contribution by synthesizing information from research in power market economics, power system reliability, and environmental impact assessment, to develop a comprehensive methodology for analyzing wind power in the context of long-term energy planning.

Southern hemisphere observations of a long-term decrease in F region altitude and thermospheric wind providing possible evidence for global thermospheric cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, M. J.; Jenkins, B.; Rodgers, G. A.

1998-09-01

F region peak heights, derived from ionospheric scaled parameters through 38-year data series from both Argentine Islands (65°S, 64°W) and Port Stanley (52°S, 58°W) have been analyzed for signatures of secular change. Long-term changes in altitude, which vary with month and time of day, were found at both sites. The results can be interpreted either as a constant decrease in altitude combined with a decreasing thermospheric wind effect or as a constant decrease in altitude which is altitude-dependent. Both interpretations leave inconsistencies when the results from the two sites are compared. The estimated long-term decrease in altitude is of a similar order of magnitude to that which has been predicted to result in the thermosphere from anthropogenic change related to greenhouse gases. Other possibilities should not, however, be ruled out.

Effects of large-scale wind driven turbulence on sound propagation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noble, John M.; Bass, Henry E.; Raspet, Richard

1990-01-01

Acoustic measurements made in the atmosphere have shown significant fluctuations in amplitude and phase resulting from the interaction with time varying meteorological conditions. The observed variations appear to have short term and long term (1 to 5 minutes) variations at least in the phase of the acoustic signal. One possible way to account for this long term variation is the use of a large scale wind driven turbulence model. From a Fourier analysis of the phase variations, the outer scales for the large scale turbulence is 200 meters and greater, which corresponds to turbulence in the energy-containing subrange. The large scale turbulence is assumed to be elongated longitudinal vortex pairs roughly aligned with the mean wind. Due to the size of the vortex pair compared to the scale of the present experiment, the effect of the vortex pair on the acoustic field can be modeled as the sound speed of the atmosphere varying with time. The model provides results with the same trends and variations in phase observed experimentally.

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

Effects of increased wind power generation on Mid-Norway's energy balance under climate change: A market based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Martino, Sara; Tofte, Lena; Hingray, Benoit; Mo, Birger; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Thanks to its huge water storage capacity, Norway has an excess of energy generation at annual scale, although significant regional disparity exists. On average, the Mid-Norway region has an energy deficit and needs to import more electricity than it exports. We show that this energy deficit can be reduced with an increase in wind generation and transmission line capacity, even in future climate scenarios where both mean annual temperature and precipitation are changed. For the considered scenarios, the deficit observed in winter disappears, i.e. when electricity consumption and prices are high. At the annual scale, the deficit behavior depends more on future changes in precipitation. Another consequence of changes in wind production and transmission capacity is the modification of electricity exchanges with neighboring regions which are also modified both in terms of average, variability and seasonality. Keywords: Variable renewable energy, Wind, Hydro, Energy balance, Energy market

A Computational Fluid-Dynamics Assessment of the Improved Performance of Aerodynamic Rain Gauges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colli, Matteo; Pollock, Michael; Stagnaro, Mattia; Lanza, Luca G.; Dutton, Mark; O'Connell, Enda

2018-02-01

The airflow surrounding any catching-type rain gauge when impacted by wind is deformed by the presence of the gauge body, resulting in the acceleration of wind above the orifice of the gauge, which deflects raindrops and snowflakes away from the collector (the wind-induced undercatch). The method of mounting a gauge with the collector at or below the level of the ground, or the use of windshields to mitigate this effect, is often not practicable. The physical shape of a gauge has a significant impact on its collection efficiency. In this study, we show that appropriate "aerodynamic" shapes are able to reduce the deformation of the airflow, which can reduce undercatch. We have employed computational fluid-dynamic simulations to evaluate the time-averaged airflow realized around "aerodynamic" rain gauge shapes when impacted by wind. Terms of comparison are provided by the results obtained for two standard "conventional" rain gauge shapes. The simulations have been run for different wind speeds and are based on a time-averaged Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes model. The shape of the aerodynamic gauges is shown to have a positive impact on the time-averaged airflow patterns observed around the orifice compared to the conventional shapes. Furthermore, the turbulent air velocity fields for the aerodynamic shapes present "recirculating" structures, which may improve the particle-catching capabilities of the gauge collector.

On Averaging Timescales for the Surface Energy Budget Closure Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grachev, A. A.; Fairall, C. W.; Persson, O. P. G.; Uttal, T.; Blomquist, B.; McCaffrey, K.

2017-12-01

An accurate determination of the surface energy budget (SEB) and all SEB components at the air-surface interface is of obvious relevance for the numerical modelling of the coupled atmosphere-land/ocean/snow system over different spatial and temporal scales, including climate modelling, weather forecasting, environmental impact studies, and many other applications. This study analyzes and discusses comprehensive measurements of the SEB and the surface energy fluxes (turbulent, radiative, and ground heat) made over different underlying surfaces based on the data collected during several field campaigns. Hourly-averaged, multiyear data sets collected at two terrestrial long-term research observatories located near the coast of the Arctic Ocean at Eureka (Canadian Archipelago) and Tiksi (East Siberia) and half-hourly averaged fluxes collected during a year-long field campaign (Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2, WFIP 2) at the Columbia River Gorge (Oregon) in areas of complex terrain. Our direct measurements of energy balance show that the sum of the turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes systematically underestimate the available energy at half-hourly and hourly time scales by around 20-30% at these sites. This imbalance of the surface energy budget is comparable to other terrestrial sites. Surface energy balance closure is a formulation of the conservation of energy principle (the first law of thermodynamics). The lack of energy balance closure at hourly time scales is a fundamental and pervasive problem in micrometeorology and may be caused by inaccurate estimates of the energy storage terms in soils, air and biomass in the layer below the measurement height and above the heat flux plates. However, the residual energy imbalance is significantly reduced at daily and monthly timescales. Increasing the averaging time to daily scales substantially reduces the storage terms because energy locally entering the soil, air column, and vegetation in the morning is released in the afternoon and evening.

Influence of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and its collapse on the wind and precipitation regimes of the Ross Embayment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seles, D.; Kowalewski, D. E.

2015-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage 31 (MIS 31) is a key analogue for current warming trends yet the extent of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during this interglacial remains unresolved. Inconsistencies persist between offshore records (suggesting the instability of WAIS) and McMurdo Dry Valley (MDV) terrestrial datasets (indicating long-term ice sheet stability). Here we use a high-resolution regional scale climate model (RegCM3_Polar) to reconstruct paleoclimate during MIS 31 (warm orbit, 400 ppm CO2) and assess changes in precipitation and winds (including katabatic) with WAIS present versus WAIS absent. The MIS 31 scenario with WAIS present resulted in minimal changes in wind magnitude compared with current climate conditions. With WAIS absent, the model predicts a decrease in coastal and highland monthly mean average wind velocities. The greatest rates of snowfall remain along the coast but shift towards higher latitudes with the interior continent remaining dry when WAIS is removed. Focusing on the Ross Embayment, this decreased monthly mean wind velocity and shift of winds to the east indicate a greater influence of offshore winds from the Ross Sea, enabling the increase of precipitation southward along the Transantarctic Mountains (TAM) (i.e. MDV). The apparent decrease of katabatic winds with no WAIS implies that offshore winds may be responsible for bringing the warmer, wetter air into the TAM. The change in wind and precipitation in the Ross Embayment and specifically the MDV highlights the impact of WAIS on Antarctic climate and its subsequent influence on the mass balance of peripheral EAIS domes (i.e. Taylor Dome). Modeling suggests that if WAIS was absent during MIS 31, we would expect (1) greater accumulation at such domes and (2) MDV terrestrial records that reflect a wetter climate, and (3) weaker winds suggesting possibly lower ablation/erosion rates compared to if WAIS was present.

Why wind-farm developers should care about measuring atmospheric turbulence? [Chaos in the Air: Unraveling the Complex Relationship Between Wind Power and Atmospheric turbulence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wharton, Sonia; Newman, Jennifer F.

The role of atmospheric turbulence in influencing wind-turbine power production remains an unsolved mystery despite a growing number of researchers who have attempted to make sense of this issue. Turbulence, a term for short-term deviations around the average wind speed, can cause fluctuations in turbine power production and structural loads. While research strongly suggests that ignoring atmospheric turbulence can result in significant errors in power-curve measurements and annual energy production, it appears that there may be no universal relationship between turbulence and power production. Typically when we think of a wind farm operating in a turbulent atmosphere, we picture amore » waked turbine, battered by vortex eddies (circular wind flow) shed from turbine blades upwind. However, turbulence is present nearly everywhere, and is constantly produced and diminished over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. This article aims to unravel some of the complex factors that remain unsolved regarding turbulence and wind power« less

Why wind-farm developers should care about measuring atmospheric turbulence? [Chaos in the Air: Unraveling the Complex Relationship Between Wind Power and Atmospheric turbulence

DOE PAGES

Wharton, Sonia; Newman, Jennifer F.

2017-09-11

The role of atmospheric turbulence in influencing wind-turbine power production remains an unsolved mystery despite a growing number of researchers who have attempted to make sense of this issue. Turbulence, a term for short-term deviations around the average wind speed, can cause fluctuations in turbine power production and structural loads. While research strongly suggests that ignoring atmospheric turbulence can result in significant errors in power-curve measurements and annual energy production, it appears that there may be no universal relationship between turbulence and power production. Typically when we think of a wind farm operating in a turbulent atmosphere, we picture amore » waked turbine, battered by vortex eddies (circular wind flow) shed from turbine blades upwind. However, turbulence is present nearly everywhere, and is constantly produced and diminished over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. This article aims to unravel some of the complex factors that remain unsolved regarding turbulence and wind power« less

Venus winds from ultraviolet, visible and near infrared images from the VIRTIS instrument on Venus Express

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hueso, Ricardo; Garate-Lopez, I.; Peralta, J.; Bandos, T.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.

2013-10-01

After more than 6 years orbiting Venus the Venus Express mission has provided the largest database of observations of Venus atmosphere at different cloud layers with the combination of VMC and VIRTIS instruments. We present measurements of cloud motions in the South hemisphere of Venus analyzing images from the VIRTIS-M visible channel at different wavelengths sensitive to the upper cloud haze at 65-70 km height (dayside ultraviolet images) and the middle cloud deck (dayside visible and near infrared images around 1 μm) about 5-8 km deeper in the atmosphere. We combine VIRTIS images in nearby wavelengths to increase the contrast of atmospheric details and measurements were obtained with a semi-automatic cloud correlation algorithm. Both cloud layers are studied simultaneously to infer similarities and differences in these vertical levels in terms of cloud morphologies and winds. For both levels we present global mean zonal and meridional winds, latitudinal distribution of winds with local time and the wind shear between both altitudes. The upper branch of the Hadley cell circulation is well resolved in UV images with an acceleration of the meridional circulation at mid-latitudes with increasing local time peaking at 14-16h. This organized meridional circulation is almost absent in NIR images. Long-term variability of zonal winds is also found in UV images with increasing winds over time during the VEX mission. This is in agreement with current analysis of VMC images (Kathuntsev et al. 2013). The possible long-term acceleration of zonal winds is also examined for NIR images. References Khatuntsev et al. Icarus 226, 140-158 (2013)

Longitudinal Variations in Jupiter's Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Gierasch, P. J.; Tierney, G.

2010-10-01

Long-term studies of Jupiter's zonal wind field revealed temporal variations on the order of 20 to 40 m/s at many latitudes, greater than the typical data uncertainties of 1 to 10 m/s. No definitive periodicities were evident, however, though some latitudinally-confined signals did appear at periods relevant to the Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (Simon-Miller & Gierasch, Icarus, in press). As the QQO appears, from vertical temperature profiles, to propagate downward, it is unclear why a signal is not more obvious, unless other processes dominate over possibly weaker forcing from the QQO. An additional complication is that zonal wind profiles represent an average over some particular set of longitudes for an image pair and most data sets do not offer global wind coverage. Even avoiding known features, such as the large anticyclonic vortices especially prevalent in the south, there can be distinct variations in longitude. We present results on the full wind field from Voyager and Cassini data, showing apparent longitudinal variations of up to 60 m/s or more. These are particularly obvious near disruptions such as the South Equatorial Disturbance, even when the feature itself is not clearly visible. These two dates represent very different states of the planet for comparison: Voyagers 1 & 2 flew by Jupiter shortly after a global upheaval, while many regions were in a disturbed state, while the Cassini view is typical of a more quiescent period present during much of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Longitudinal Variations in Jupiter's Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Gierasch, P. J.; Tierney, G.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies of Jupiter's zonal wind field revealed temporal variations on the order of 20 to 40 m/s at many latitudes, greater than the typical data uncertainties of 1 to 10 m/s. No definitive periodicities were evident, however, though some latitudinally-confined signals did appear at periods relevant to the Quasi- Quadrennial Oscillation (Simon-Miller & Gierasch, Icarus, in press). As the QQO appears, from vertical temperature profiles, to propagate downward, it is unclear why a signal is not more obvious, unless other processes dominate over possibly weaker forcing from the QQO. An additional complication is that zonal wind profiles represent an average over some particular set of longitudes for an image pair and most data sets do not offer global wind coverage. Lien avoiding known features, such as the large anticyclonic vortices especially prevalent in the south, there can be distinct variations in longitude. We present results on the full wind field from Voyager and Cassini data, showing apparent longitudinal variations of up to 60 m/s or more. These are particularly obvious near disruptions such as the South Equatorial Disturbance, even when the feature itself is not clearly visible. These two dates represent very different states of the planet for comparison: Voyagers 1 & 2 flew by Jupiter shortly after a global upheaval, while many regions were in a disturbed state, while the Cassini view is typical of a more quiescent period present during much of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Dispersal limitation induces long-term biomass collapse in overhunted Amazonian forests

PubMed Central

Peres, Carlos A.; Emilio, Thaise; Schietti, Juliana; Desmoulière, Sylvain J. M.; Levi, Taal

2016-01-01

Tropical forests are the global cornerstone of biological diversity, and store 55% of the forest carbon stock globally, yet sustained provisioning of these forest ecosystem services may be threatened by hunting-induced extinctions of plant–animal mutualisms that maintain long-term forest dynamics. Large-bodied Atelinae primates and tapirs in particular offer nonredundant seed-dispersal services for many large-seeded Neotropical tree species, which on average have higher wood density than smaller-seeded and wind-dispersed trees. We used field data and models to project the spatial impact of hunting on large primates by ∼1 million rural households throughout the Brazilian Amazon. We then used a unique baseline dataset on 2,345 1-ha tree plots arrayed across the Brazilian Amazon to model changes in aboveground forest biomass under different scenarios of hunting-induced large-bodied frugivore extirpation. We project that defaunation of the most harvest-sensitive species will lead to losses in aboveground biomass of between 2.5–5.8% on average, with some losses as high as 26.5–37.8%. These findings highlight an urgent need to manage the sustainability of game hunting in both protected and unprotected tropical forests, and place full biodiversity integrity, including populations of large frugivorous vertebrates, firmly in the agenda of reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) programs. PMID:26811455

Average Temperatures in the Southwestern United States, 2000-2015 Versus Long-Term Average

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This indicator shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2015 has differed from the long-term average (1895??2015). To provide more detailed information, each state has been divided into climate divisions, which are zones that share similar climate features. For more information: www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators

Recent Progress in Understanding the Origin and Acceleration of Suprathermal Ions and Electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Desai, Mihir; Dayeh, Maher

2017-04-01

Ions and electrons with energies that lie above (i.e., ˜2 keV) that of the core or bulk solar wind protons and electrons are known as suprathermal particles. Observations over the last decade have shown that such suprathermal particles are an important constituent of the overall seed population that is accelerated in solar and interplanetary events. Despite their increased level of importance, where these populations originate from and how they are accelerated remains highly controversial. This is partly due to the fact that these particles exist in the so-called tail regions of the corresponding solar wind distributions where high temporal and sensitivity measurements are sparse. Moreover, observations comprising long-term averages (between ˜hours to more than a day) have shown conflicting results. For instance, below ˜40 keV/nucleon the ion differential intensities in the solar wind frame appear to exhibit a near-constant power-law spectral slope of ˜1.5, perhaps indicating a universal acceleration mechanism. In contrast, at energies greater than ˜40 keV/nucleon, the ion composition changes with solar activity and the energy spectra are significantly steeper, perhaps indicating that the suprathermal pool of material also comprises lower-energy particle populations accelerated in corotating interaction regions, interplanetary shocks, and solar energetic particle events. This talk discusses recent observations of suprathermal ions and electrons in terms of state-of-the-art theories and models that have been put forward to account for their origins and acceleration.

Nonlinearity Role in Long-Term Interaction of the Ocean Gravity Waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

3 4 =s We found that in the fetch-limited case the wind forcing index s is similar to the time domain situation, and the wind forcing is given by...of its evolution. Fig.5 gives a graphical summary of four reference cases of self-similar evolution of wind-driven waves. These cases are shown as...different R, tangents of one-parametric dependencies H~TR height-to-period in logarithmic axes. Reference cases of growing wind sea are shown as

Wood-plastic composites with reduced moisture : effects of chemical modification on durability in the laboratory and field

Treesearch

Rebecca E. Ibach; Craig M. Clemons; Rebecca L. Schumann

2007-01-01

Although laboratory evaluations of wood-plastic composites (WPCs) are helpful in predicting long-term durability, field studies are needed to verify overall long-term durability. Field exposure can encompass numerous degradations i.e., fungal, ultraviolet light, moisture, wind, temperature, freeze/thaw, wet/ dry cycling, termites, mold, etc. that traditionally are...

Bottomland hardwood forest recovery following tornado disturbance and salvage logging

Treesearch

John L. Nelson; John W. Groninger; Loretta L. Battaglia; Charles M. Ruffner

2008-01-01

Catastrophic wind events, including tornado, hurricane. and linear winds. are significant disturbances in temperate forested wetlands. Information is lacking on how post-disturbance salvage logging may impact short and long-term objectives in conservation areas where natural stands are typically managed passively. Woody regeneration and herbaceous cover were assessed...

ERROR IN ANNUAL AVERAGE DUE TO USE OF LESS THAN EVERYDAY MEASUREMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

Long term averages of the concentration of PM mass and components are of interest for determining compliance with annual averages, for developing exposure surrogated for cross-sectional epidemiologic studies of the long-term of PM, and for determination of aerosol sources by chem...

Impact of Financing Instruments and Strategies on the Wind Power Production Costs: A Case of Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobinaite, V.; Konstantinaviciute, I.

2018-04-01

The paper aims at demonstrating the relevance of financing instruments, their terms and financing strategies in relation to the cost of wind power production and the ability of wind power plant (PP) to participate in the electricity market in Lithuania. The extended approach to the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is applied. The feature of the extended approach lies in considering the lifetime cost and revenue received from the support measures. The research results have substantiated the relevance of financing instruments, their terms and strategies in relation to their impact on the LCOE and competitiveness of wind PP. It has been found that financing of wind PP through the traditional financing instruments (simple shares and bank loans) makes use of venture capital and bonds coming even in the absence of any support. It has been estimated that strategies consisting of different proportions of hard and soft loans, bonds, own and venture capital result in the average LCOE of 5.1-5.7 EURct/kWh (2000 kW), when the expected electricity selling price is 5.4 EURct/kWh. The financing strategies with higher shares of equity could impact by around 6 % higher LCOE compared to the strategies encompassing higher shares of debt. However, seeking to motivate venture capitalists, bond holders or other new financiers entering the wind power sector, support measures (feed-in tariff or investment subsidy) are relevant in case of 250 kW wind PP. It has been estimated that under the unsupported financing strategies, the average LCOE of 250 kW wind PP will be 7.8-8.8 EURct/kWh, but it will reduce by around 50 % if feed-in tariff or 50 % investment subsidy is applied.

Long-term Trends in Interplanetary Magnetic Field Strength and Solar Wind Structure during the 20th Century

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, I. G.; Cliver, E. W.; Cane, H. V.; White, Nicholas E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Lockwood et al have recently reported an approximately 40% increase in the radial component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) at Earth between 1964 and 1996. We argue that this increase does not constitute a secular trend but is largely the consequence of lower than average fields during solar cycle 20 (1964-1976) in comparison with surrounding cycles. For times after 1976 the average IMF strength has actually decreased slightly. Examination of the cosmic ray intensity, an indirect measure of the IMF strength, over the last five solar cycles (19-23) also indicates that cycle averages of the IMF strength have been relatively constant since approximately 1954. We also consider the origin of the well-documented increase in the geomagnetic alphaalpha index that occurred primarily during the first half of the twentieth century. We surmise that the coronal mass ejection (CME) rate for recent solar cycles was approximately twice as high as that for solar cycles 100 years ago. However, this change in the CME rate and the accompanying increase in 27-day recurrent storm activity reported by others are unable to account completely for the increase in alphaalpha. Rather, the CMEs and recurrent high-speed streams at the beginning of the twentieth century must have been embedded in a background of slow solar wind that was less geoeffective (having, for example, lower IMF strength and/or flow speed) than its modern counterpart.

The solar cycle variation of coronal mass ejections and the solar wind mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, David F.; Howard, Russell A.

1994-01-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are an important aspect of coronal physics and a potentially significant contributor to perturbations of the solar wind, such as its mass flux. Sufficient data on CMEs are now available to permit study of their longer-term occurrency patterns. Here we present the results of a study of CME occurrence rates over more than a complete 11-year solar sunspot cycle and a comparison of these rates with those of other activity related to CMEs and with the solar wind particle flux at 1 AU. The study includes an evaluation of correlations to the CME rates, which include instrument duty cycles, visibility functions, mass detection thresholds, and geometrical considerations. The main results are as follows: (1) The frequency of occurrence of CMEs tends to track the solar activity cycle in both amplitude and phase; (2) the CME rates from different instruments, when corrected for both duty cycles and visibility functions, are reasonably consistent; (3) considering only longer-term averages, no one class of solar activity is better correlated with CME rate than any other; (4) the ratio of the annualized CME to solar wind mass flux tends to track the solar cycle; and (5) near solar maximum, CMEs can provide a significant fraction (i.e., approximately equals 15%) of the average mass flux to the near-ecliptic solar wind.

Effects of wind-energy facilities on grassland bird distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shaffer, Jill A.; Buhl, Deb

2016-01-01

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable sectors, but new wind facilities are often placed in prime wildlife habitat. Long-term studies that incorporate a rigorous statistical design to evaluate the effects of wind facilities on wildlife are rare. We conducted a before-after-control-impact (BACI) assessment to determine if wind facilities placed in native mixed-grass prairies displaced breeding grassland birds. During 2003–2012, we monitored changes in bird density in 3 study areas in North Dakota and South Dakota (U.S.A.). We examined whether displacement or attraction occurred 1 year after construction (immediate effect) and the average displacement or attraction 2–5 years after construction (delayed effect). We tested for these effects overall and within distance bands of 100, 200, 300, and >300 m from turbines. We observed displacement for 7 of 9 species. One species was unaffected by wind facilities and one species exhibited attraction. Displacement and attraction generally occurred within 100 m and often extended up to 300 m. In a few instances, displacement extended beyond 300 m. Displacement and attraction occurred 1 year after construction and persisted at least 5 years. Our research provides a framework for applying a BACI design to displacement studies and highlights the erroneous conclusions that can be made without the benefit of adopting such a design. More broadly, species-specific behaviors can be used to inform management decisions about turbine placement and the potential impact to individual species. Additionally, the avoidance distance metrics we estimated can facilitate future development of models evaluating impacts of wind facilities under differing land-use scenarios.

Effects of wind-energy facilities on breeding grassland bird distributions.

PubMed

Shaffer, Jill A; Buhl, Deborah A

2016-02-01

The contribution of renewable energy to meet worldwide demand continues to grow. Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable sectors, but new wind facilities are often placed in prime wildlife habitat. Long-term studies that incorporate a rigorous statistical design to evaluate the effects of wind facilities on wildlife are rare. We conducted a before-after-control-impact (BACI) assessment to determine if wind facilities placed in native mixed-grass prairies displaced breeding grassland birds. During 2003-2012, we monitored changes in bird density in 3 study areas in North Dakota and South Dakota (U.S.A.). We examined whether displacement or attraction occurred 1 year after construction (immediate effect) and the average displacement or attraction 2-5 years after construction (delayed effect). We tested for these effects overall and within distance bands of 100, 200, 300, and >300 m from turbines. We observed displacement for 7 of 9 species. One species was unaffected by wind facilities and one species exhibited attraction. Displacement and attraction generally occurred within 100 m and often extended up to 300 m. In a few instances, displacement extended beyond 300 m. Displacement and attraction occurred 1 year after construction and persisted at least 5 years. Our research provides a framework for applying a BACI design to displacement studies and highlights the erroneous conclusions that can be made without the benefit of adopting such a design. More broadly, species-specific behaviors can be used to inform management decisions about turbine placement and the potential impact to individual species. Additionally, the avoidance distance metrics we estimated can facilitate future development of models evaluating impacts of wind facilities under differing land-use scenarios. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Long range lidar data processing for validating LES of wind turbine wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trabucchi, D.; van Dooren, M.; Vollmer, L.; Schneemann, J.; Trujillo, J. J.; Witha, B.; Kühn, M.

2014-12-01

Scanning wind lidars offer the possibility to compare full-scale measurements in the wake of a wind turbine with LES wind fields calculated for the same test case. Due to the novelty and the peculiarity of lidar measurements, a comparison between experimental data and simulation results is non-trivial and several methods can be applied. This study presents validation methods for single and dual-doppler lidar measurements respectively.Consecutive azimuthal scans - commonly indicated as Plan Position Indicator (PPI) - at a low fixed elevation and centered on the wind turbine wake provide the radial wind speed, i.e. the wind component along the laser beam, on an almost flat polar grid. This data can be directly compared with the radial wind speed evaluated at the measurement point from the simulated wind field. This approach provides a detailed spatial description of the wind field and can be applied to averaged data for steady analysis. For the comparison with LES results, time average and spatial interpolation of the computed wind field are needed. Moreover, a proper wind direction should be chosen to evaluate the radial wind speed.With two lidars performing consecutive PPI scans over the same region from different places it is possible to estimate the horizontal wind field where the scanned regions overlap. Due to the limits in the synchronization of the PPI scans by the lidars, only steady analysis based on time averaged data can be done. A horizontal grid based on the one used for the LES is overlapped to the region covered by the two non-co-planar scans. The horizontal wind field at a considered point can be evaluated solving the system given by at least two non-aligned radial directions about this point. For each node, the data sampled by the lidars in a well defined volume during the considered time interval is used to write this system. Moreover, a discrete approximation of the continuity equation is applied to link the solutions for all the grid nodes. Instead of an interpolation on the LES wind field, this approach requires a temporal and vertical average over the considered time and height intervals.The application of these two approaches to lidar measurements performed in the offshore wind farm »alpha ventus« is presented in this work. The results are going to be used to evaluate different wind turbine wake models applied to LES.

Radiation belt electron dynamics at low L (<4): Van Allen Probes era versus previous two solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Baker, D. N.; Zhao, H.; Zhang, K.; Jaynes, A. N.; Schiller, Q.; Kanekal, S. G.; Blake, J. B.; Temerin, M.

2017-05-01

Long-term (>2 solar cycles) measurements reveal that MeV electron fluxes, solar wind speed, and geomagnetic activity have been extremely low during this current solar cycle, including years before and during the Van Allen Probes era. This study examines solar wind speed, the geomagnetic storm index (Dst), >2 MeV electrons at geostationary orbit, and 2 MeV electrons across various L shells measured by Solar Anomalous Magnetospheric Particle Explorer in low Earth orbit (LEO) and by the Van Allen Probes/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope (REPT) in a geotransfer-like orbit; the latter measurements are normalized to LEO based on comparison with Colorado Student Space Weather Experiment/Relativistic Electron and Proton Telescope integrated little experiment (REPTile) measurements in LEO. The average ratio of REPTile/REPT varies in a systematic manner with L, 16% at L = 2.7, decreasing with L and reaching 0.7% at L = 4.7, and increasing again with L though with greater uncertainty. We show that there have been no 2 MeV electron enhancements inside L 2.6 since 2006, prior to which numerous penetrations of 2 MeV electrons into L < 2.5 were measured during periods of stronger solar wind conditions (in terms of high-speed solar wind, magnitude of interplanetary magnetic field, B, and a sustained southward Bz) and thus stronger geomagnetic activity. We conclude that results from the Van Allen Probes, which have been providing the finest measurements but in operation during a quiet solar activity period, may not be representative of radiation belt dynamics, particularly for the inner edge of the outer belt, during other solar cycle phases.

Use of a grid simulation model for longer-term analysis of wind energy integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bossanyi, E.

A simulation model of an electricity generating system is used to study the integration of wind energy onto the system. Most of the system cost savings achieved are due to the savings of fossil fuels, but in the long term additional savings result from re-optimization of the plant mix. Break-even costs are calculated for wind turbines to become economically viable as fossil fuel savers. This allows the optimum economic penetration level for wind turbines of any given cost to be derived. Break-even costs up to reasonably large penetrations appear to be within reach with modern technology. Results are also given with scenarios of increasing fossil fuel prices and increased nuclear capacity.

Solar Corona/Wind Composition and Origins of the Solar Wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lepri, S. T.; Gilbert, J. A.; Landi, E.; Shearer, P.; von Steiger, R.; Zurbuchen, T.

2014-12-01

Measurements from ACE and Ulysses have revealed a multifaceted solar wind, with distinctly different kinetic and compositional properties dependent on the source region of the wind. One of the major outstanding issues in heliophysics concerns the origin and also predictability of quasi-stationary slow solar wind. While the fast solar wind is now proven to originate within large polar coronal holes, the source of the slow solar wind remains particularly elusive and has been the subject of long debate, leading to models that are stationary and also reconnection based - such as interchange or so-called S-web based models. Our talk will focus on observational constraints of solar wind sources and their evolution during the solar cycle. In particular, we will point out long-term variations of wind composition and dynamic properties, particularly focused on the abundance of elements with low First Ionization Potential (FIP), which have been routinely measured on both ACE and Ulysses spacecraft. We will use these in situ observations, and remote sensing data where available, to provide constraints for solar wind origin during the solar cycle, and on their correspondence to predictions for models of the solar wind.

Assessment extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dvornikov, Anton; Martyanov, Stanislav; Ryabchenko, Vladimir; Eremina, Tatjana; Isaev, Alexey; Sein, Dmitry

2017-04-01

Extreme hydrometeorological conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, the Baltic Sea, are estimated paying a special attention to the area of the future construction of nuclear power plant (NPP) "Hanhikivi-1" (24° 16' E, 64° 32' N). To produce these estimates, long-term observations and results from numerical models of water and ice circulation and wind waves are used. It is estimated that the average annual air temperature in the vicinity of the station is +3° C, summer and winter extreme temperature is equal to 33.3° C and -41.5° C, respectively. Model calculations of wind waves have shown that the most dangerous (in terms of the generation of wind waves in the NPP area) is a north-west wind with the direction of 310°. The maximum height of the waves in the Gulf of Bothnia near the NPP for this wind direction with wind velocity of 10 m/s is 1.2-1.4 m. According to the model estimates, the highest possible level of the sea near the NPP is 248 cm, the minimum level, -151 cm, respectively for the western and eastern winds. These estimates are in good agreement with observations on the sea level for the period 1922-2015 at the nearest hydrometeorological station Raahe (Finland). In order to assess the likely impact of the NPP on the marine environment numerical experiments for the cold (2010) and warm year (2014) have been carried out. These calculations have shown that permanent release of heat into the marine environment from the operating NPP for the cold year (2010) will increase the temperature in the upper layer of 0-250m zone by 10°C in winter - spring and by 8°C in summer - early autumn, and in the bottom layer of 0-250m zone by 5°C in winter - spring and 3°C in summer - early autumn. For the warm year (2014), these temperature changes are smaller. Ice cover in both cases will disappear in two - kilometer vicinity of the NPP. These effects should be taken into account when assessing local climate changes in the future

Extreme wind-wave modeling and analysis in the south Atlantic ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, R. M.; Alves, J. H. G. M.; Guedes Soares, C.; Guimaraes, L. G.; Parente, C. E.

2018-04-01

A set of wave hindcasts is constructed using two different types of wind calibration, followed by an additional test retuning the input source term Sin in the wave model. The goal is to improve the simulation in extreme wave events in the South Atlantic Ocean without compromising average conditions. Wind fields are based on Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR/NCEP). The first wind calibration applies a simple linear regression model, with coefficients obtained from the comparison of CFSR against buoy data. The second is a method where deficiencies of the CFSR associated with severe sea state events are remedied, whereby "defective" winds are replaced with satellite data within cyclones. A total of six wind datasets forced WAVEWATCH-III and additional three tests with modified Sin in WAVEWATCH III lead to a total of nine wave hindcasts that are evaluated against satellite and buoy data for ambient and extreme conditions. The target variable considered is the significant wave height (Hs). The increase of sea-state severity shows a progressive increase of the hindcast underestimation which could be calculated as a function of percentiles. The wind calibration using a linear regression function shows similar results to the adjustments to Sin term (increase of βmax parameter) in WAVEWATCH-III - it effectively reduces the average bias of Hs but cannot avoid the increase of errors with percentiles. The use of blended scatterometer winds within cyclones could reduce the increasing wave hindcast errors mainly above the 93rd percentile and leads to a better representation of Hs at the peak of the storms. The combination of linear regression calibration of non-cyclonic winds with scatterometer winds within the cyclones generated a wave hindcast with small errors from calm to extreme conditions. This approach led to a reduction of the percentage error of Hs from 14% to less than 8% for extreme waves, while also improving the RMSE.

210Pb and 137Cs as chronometers for salt marsh accretion in the Venice Lagoon - links to flooding frequency and climate change.

PubMed

Bellucci, L G; Frignani, M; Cochran, J K; Albertazzi, S; Zaggia, L; Cecconi, G; Hopkins, H

2007-01-01

Five salt marsh sediment cores from different parts of the Venice Lagoon were studied to determine their depositional history and its relationship with the environmental changes occurred during the past approximately 100 years. X-radiographs of the cores show no disturbance related to particle mixing. Accretion rates were calculated using a constant flux model applied to excess (210)Pb distributions in the cores. The record of (137)Cs fluxes to the sites, determined from (137)Cs profiles and the (210)Pb chronologies, shows inputs from the global fallout of (137)Cs in the late 1950s to early 1960s and the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Average accretion rates in the cores are comparable to the long-term average rate of mean sea level rise in the Venice Lagoon ( approximately 0.25 cm y(-1)) except for a core collected in a marsh presumably affected by inputs from the Dese River. Short-term variations in accretion rate are correlated with the cumulative frequency of flooding, as determined by records of Acqua Alta, in four of the five cores, suggesting that variations in the phenomena causing flooding (such as wind patterns, storm frequency and NAO) are short-term driving forces for variations in marsh accretion rate.

Assessment of the uncertainties in air mass and pollutants transboundary exchange over the continental part of the EANET region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey S.; Trifonova-Yakovleva, Alisa; Gromov, Sergey A.

2017-04-01

In this study, we attempt to quantify the uncertainties in air mass exchange in the lower troposphere across two regions of the Russian border in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East in 2000-2015. We use meteorological data from long-term air sound data (ASD) on mean layer winds [1] and from the ERA INTERIM re-analysis (EIR) project [2]. Using a transboundary exchange model, we estimate the total and net amounts of air crossing the boundary segments around Irkutsk (IR) and Vladivostok (VL) aerological stations. We compare transport terms derived (i) from the long-term wind statistics based on both ASD and EIR data, and (ii) from integrating 6h meteorological winds from EIR directly over the border segments cells. We find similar wind direction statistics in both meteorological datasets, however EIR favours stronger westerly winds at VL in summer, which results in more often air export from China to Russia in the Far East. There is less agreement on the wind strengths than wind directions between the datasets, with EIR often providing slower wind speeds. The resulting climatic (ASD) and directly (from EIR 6h terms) calculated non-equilibrium (net) transport terms are comparable in orders (tens of million km3/month), however may differ substantially in temporal evolution or/and magnitude. Thus, EIR net transport over the IR segment has similar annual dynamics but is higher by a factor of ˜ 4 (maxima of 3.6 vs. 12 of 106 km3/month in December, respectively). An opposite ratio is derived for the VL segment (average ˜ 6 vs. 13 of 106 km3/month), with a distinct seasonality in the ASD but not in the EIR data. We attribute this discrepancy to the variations in wind direction with altitude, which cannot be resolved in the model fed with the ASD data. Calculated transport in the boundary layer (BL, provided by the EIR) supports this inference. Thus, the BL net transport temporal dynamics differ substantially from that within the 3 km layer, owing to the BL diurnal dynamics that favour non-equilibrium air transport mostly at daytime. The BL transport reaches at most 2\\cdot 106 km3/month in April-May during air export from Russia at the IR segment and re-import from China at the VL, respectively. A non-negligible BL air import from China into Russia occurs also over the IR segment throughout winter (at a 0.7-1.5 of 106 km3/month rate). Using the data from the stations of the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET, www.eanet.asia), we estimate the transboundary pollution fluxes of S- and N-bearing gaseous compounds (SO2, NOx, etc.) and particulate matter (SO4-, ammonia nitrate). The co-occurrence of the high pollutants load and significant non-equilibrium air exchange renders pollutant net transport a rather non-linear problem. We derive the uncertainties associated with different assumptions on plum vertical location (i.e., in the BL-only vs. free troposphere). Finally, we derive the transient record of pollution transport for 2000-2015 for the IR and VL transboundary segments. References: Brukhan, F.F.: Aeroclimatic Characteristics of the Mean Winds over USSR (ed. Ignatjushina E.N.). Gidrometeoizdat, Moscow, 54 p., 1984 (in Russian).Izrael, Yu.A., et al.: Monitoring of the Transboundary Air Pollution Transport. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 303 p., 187 (in Russian). em Dee, D. P., et al.: The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system, Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc., 137, 553-597, doi: 10.1002/qj.828, 2011.

Atmospheric Characterization of the US Offshore Sites and Impact on Turbine Performance (Poster)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arora, Dhiraj; Ehrmann, Robert; Zuo, Delong

Reliable, long term offshore atmospheric data is critical to development of the US offshore wind industry. There exists significant lack of meteorological, oceanographic, and geological data at potential US offshore sites. Assessment of wind resources at heights in the range of 25-200m is needed to understand and characterize offshore wind turbine performance. Data from the US Department of Energy owned WindSentinel buoy from two US offshore sites and one European site is analyzed. Low Level Jet (LLJ) phenomena and its potential impact on the performance of an offshore wind turbine is investigated.

Revisiting the Long-Term Hedge Value of Wind Power in an Era of Low Natural Gas Prices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bolinger, Mark

This report investigates the degree to which wind power can still serve as a cost-effective hedge against rising natural gas prices, given the significant reduction in gas prices in recent years, coupled with expectations that prices will remain low for many years to come.

Development of a Fault Monitoring Technique for Wind Turbines Using a Hidden Markov Model.

PubMed

Shin, Sung-Hwan; Kim, SangRyul; Seo, Yun-Ho

2018-06-02

Regular inspection for the maintenance of the wind turbines is difficult because of their remote locations. For this reason, condition monitoring systems (CMSs) are typically installed to monitor their health condition. The purpose of this study is to propose a fault detection algorithm for the mechanical parts of the wind turbine. To this end, long-term vibration data were collected over two years by a CMS installed on a 3 MW wind turbine. The vibration distribution at a specific rotating speed of main shaft is approximated by the Weibull distribution and its cumulative distribution function is utilized for determining the threshold levels that indicate impending failure of mechanical parts. A Hidden Markov model (HMM) is employed to propose the statistical fault detection algorithm in the time domain and the method whereby the input sequence for HMM is extracted is also introduced by considering the threshold levels and the correlation between the signals. Finally, it was demonstrated that the proposed HMM algorithm achieved a greater than 95% detection success rate by using the long-term signals.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, M. H.; Giebel, G.; Nielsen, T. S.; Hahmann, A.; Sørensen, P.; Madsen, H.

2012-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the working title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The project commenced October 1, 2011, and the goal is to integrate a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. With regard to the latter, one such simulation tool has been developed at the Wind Energy Division, Risø DTU, intended for long term power system planning. As part of the PSO project the inferior NWP model used at present will be replaced by the state-of-the-art Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) model. Furthermore, the integrated simulation tool will be improved so it can handle simultaneously 10-50 times more turbines than the present ~ 300, as well as additional atmospheric parameters will be included in the model. The WRF data will also be input for a statistical short term prediction model to be developed in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. This integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated prediction tool constitute scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator, and the need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2020, from the current 20%.

Sustainability-Related Publications: Calendar Years 2014 - 2015

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-03

five 100 kW wind turbines . The best performing turbine assessed at a hub height of 37 m could provide 52% of the site’s annual electric power needs...with a payback of approxi- mately 18 to 19.6 years. However, extrapo- lated long-term wind speeds suggest the best performing turbine assessed could... Wind Resource Assessment: Center Strafford Training Center, http://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/search/asset/1047667 The New Hampshire Army National

Evaluation of Noise Exposure Secondary to Wind Noise in Cyclists.

PubMed

Seidman, Michael D; Wertz, Anna G; Smith, Matthew M; Jacob, Steve; Ahsan, Syed F

2017-11-01

Objective Determine if the noise levels of wind exposure experienced by cyclists reach levels that could contribute to noise-induced hearing loss. Study Design Industrial lab research. Setting Industrial wind tunnel. Subjects and Methods A commercial-grade electric wind tunnel was used to simulate different speeds encountered by a cyclist. A single cyclist was used during the simulation for audiometric measurements. Microphones attached near the ears of the cyclist were used to measure the sound (dB sound pressure level) experienced by the cyclist. Loudness levels were measured with the head positioned at 15-degree increments from 0 degrees to 180 degrees relative to the oncoming wind at different speeds (10-60 mph). Results Wind noise ranged from 84.9 dB at 10 mph and increased proportionally with speed to a maximum of 120.3 dB at 60 mph. The maximum of 120.3 dB was measured at the downwind ear when the ear was 90 degrees away from the wind. Conclusions Wind noise experienced by a cyclist is proportional to the speed and the directionality of the wind current. Turbulent air flow patterns are observed that contribute to increased sound exposure in the downwind ear. Consideration of ear deflection equipment without compromising sound awareness for cyclists during prolonged rides is advised to avoid potential noise trauma. Future research is warranted and can include long-term studies including dosimetry measures of the sound and yearly pre- and postexposure audiograms of cyclists to detect if any hearing loss occurs with long-term cycling.

Analysis of Ideal Towers for Tall Wind Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykes, Katherine L; Damiani, Rick R; Roberts, Joseph O

Innovation in wind turbine tower design is of significant interest for future development of wind power plants. First, wind turbine towers account for a large portion of overall capital expenditures for wind power projects. Second, for low wind-resource regions of the world, the use of low-cost tall-tower technology has the potential to open new markets for development. This study investigates the relative potential of various tower configurations in terms of mass and cost. For different market applications and hub heights, idealized tall towers are designed and compared. The results show that innovation in wind turbine controls makes reaching higher hubmore » heights with current technology economically viable. At the same time, new technologies hold promise for reducing tower costs as these technologies mature and hub heights reach twice the current average.« less

Analysis of Ideal Towers for Tall Wind Applications: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dykes, Katherine L; Damiani, Rick R; Roberts, Joseph O

Innovation in wind turbine tower design is of significant interest for future development of wind power plants. First, wind turbine towers account for a large portion of overall capital expenditures for wind power projects. Second, for low wind-resource regions of the world, the use of low-cost tall-tower technology has the potential to open new markets for development. This study investigates the relative potential of various tower configurations in terms of mass and cost. For different market applications and hub heights, idealized tall towers are designed and compared. The results show that innovation in wind turbine controls makes reaching higher hubmore » heights with current technology economically viable. At the same time, new technologies hold promise for reducing tower costs as these technologies mature and hub heights reach twice the current average.« less

The time variability of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolton, Scott Jay

1991-02-01

The time variability of the Jovian synchrotron emission is investigated by analyzing radio observations of Jupiter at decimetric wavelengths. The observations are composed from two distinct sets of measurements addressing both short term (days to weeks) and long term (months to years) variability. The study of long term variations utilizes a set of measurements made several times each month with the NASA Deep Space Network (DNS) antennas operating at 2295 MHz (13.1 cm). The DSN data set, covering 1971 through 1985, is compared with a set of measurements of the solar wind from a number of Earth orbiting spacecraft. The analysis indicates a maximum correlation between the synchrotron emission and the solar wind ram pressure with a two year time lag. Physical mechanisms affecting the synchrotron emission are discussed with an emphasis on radial diffusion. Calculations are performed that suggest the correlation is consistent with inward adiabatic diffusion of solar wind particles driven by Brice's model of ionospheric neutral wind convection (Brice 1972). The implication is that the solar wind could be a source of particles of Jupiter's radiation belts. The investigation of short term variability focuses on a three year Jupiter observing program using the University of California's Hat Creek radio telescope operating at 1400 MHz (21 cm). Measurements are made every two days during the months surrounding opposition. Results from the three year program suggest short term variability near the 10-20 percent level but should be considered inconclusive due to scheduling and observational limitations. A discussion of magneto-spheric processes on short term timescales identifies wave-particle interactions as a candidate source. Further analysis finds that the short term variations could be related to whistler mode wave-particles interactions in the radiation belts associated with atmospheric lightning on Jupiter. However, theoretical calculations on wave particle interactions imply thought if whistler mode waves are to interact with the synchrotron emitting electrons.

On the Sizes of the North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones Based on 34- and 64-kt Wind Radii Data, 2004-2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, Robert M.

2014-01-01

At end of the 2012 hurricane season the National Hurricane Center retired the original HURDAT dataset and replaced it with the newer version HURDAT2, which reformatted the original data and included additional information, in particular, estimates of the 34-, 50, and 64-kt wind radii for the interval 2004-2013. During the brief 10-year interval, some 164 tropical cyclones are noted to have formed in the North Atlantic basin, with 77 becoming hurricanes. Hurricane Sandy (2012) stands out as being the largest individual storm that occurred in the North Atlantic basin during the 2004 -2013 timeframe, both in terms of its 34- and 64-kt wind radii and wind areas, having maximum 34- and 64-kt wind radii, maximum wind areas, and average wind areas each more than 2 standard deviations larger than the corresponding means. In terms of the largest yearly total 34-kt wind area (i.e., the sum of all individual storm 34-kt wind areas during the year), the year 2010 stands out as being the largest (about 423 × 10(exp 6) nmi(exp 2)), compared to the mean of about 174 × 10(exp 6) nmi(exp 2)), surpassing the year 2005 (353 x 10(exp 6) nmi(exp 2)) that had the largest number of individual storms (28). However, in terms of the largest yearly total 64-kt wind area, the year 2005 was the largest (about 9 × 10(exp 6) nmi(exp 2)), compared to the mean of about 3 × 106 nmi(exp 2)). Interesting is that the ratio of total 64-kt wind area to total 34-kt wind area has decreased over time, from 0.034 in 2004 to 0.008 in 2013.

Wind Development on Tribal Lands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ken Haukaas; Dale Osborn; Belvin Pete

Background: The Rosebud Sioux Tribe (RST) is located in south central South Dakota near the Nebraska border. The nearest community of size is Valentine, Nebraska. The RST is a recipient of several Department of Energy grants, written by Distributed Generation Systems, Inc. (Disgen), for the purposes of assessing the feasibility of its wind resource and subsequently to fund the development of the project. Disgen, as the contracting entity to the RST for this project, has completed all the pre-construction activities, with the exception of the power purchase agreement and interconnection agreement, to commence financing and construction of the project. Themore » focus of this financing is to maximize the economic benefits to the RST while achieving commercially reasonable rates of return and fees for the other parties involved. Each of the development activities required and its status is discussed below. Land Resource: The Owl Feather War Bonnet 30 MW Wind Project is located on RST Tribal Trust Land of approximately 680 acres adjacent to the community of St. Francis, South Dakota. The RST Tribal Council has voted on several occasions for the development of this land for wind energy purposes, as has the District of St. Francis. Actual footprint of wind farm will be approx. 50 acres. Wind Resource Assessment: The wind data has been collected from the site since May 1, 2001 and continues to be collected and analyzed. The latest projections indicate a net capacity factor of 42% at a hub height of 80 meters. The data has been collected utilizing an NRG 9300 Data logger System with instrumentation installed at 30, 40 and 65 meters on an existing KINI radio tower. The long-term annual average wind speed at 65-meters above ground level is 18.2 mph (8.1 mps) and 18.7 mph (8.4 mps) at 80-meters agl. The wind resource is excellent and supports project financing.« less

Operation and Equivalent Loads of Wind Turbines in Large Wind Farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersen, Soren Juhl; Sorensen, Jens Norkaer; Mikkelsen, Robert Flemming

2017-11-01

Wind farms continue to grow in size and as the technology matures, the design of wind farms move towards including dynamic effects besides merely annual power production estimates. The unsteady operation of wind turbines in large wind farms has been modelled with EllipSys3D(Michelsen, 1992, and Sørensen, 1995) for a number of different scenarios using a fully coupled large eddy simulations(LES) and aero-elastic framework. The turbines are represented in the flow fields using the actuator line method(Sørensen and Shen, 2002), where the aerodynamic forces and deflections are derived from an aero-elastic code, Flex5(Øye, 1996). The simulations constitute a database of full turbine operation in terms of both production and loads for various wind speeds, turbulence intensities, and turbine spacings. The operating conditions are examined in terms of averaged power production and thrust force, as well as 10min equivalent flapwise bending, yaw, and tilt moment loads. The analyses focus on how the performance and loads change throughout a given farm as well as comparing how various input parameters affect the operation and loads of the wind turbines during different scenarios. COMWIND(Grant 2104-09- 067216/DSF), Nordic Consortium on Optimization and Control of Wind Farms, Eurotech Greentech Wind project, Winds2Loads, and CCA LES. Ressources Granted on SNIC and JESS. The Vestas NM80 turbine has been used.

Ground-based observations of the long-term evolution and death of Saturn's 2010 Great White Spot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Lavega, Agustín; del Río-Gaztelurrutia, Teresa; Delcroix, Marc; Legarreta, Jon J.; Gómez-Forrellad, Josep M.; Hueso, Ricardo; García-Melendo, Enrique; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Barrado-Navascués, David; Lillo, Jorge; International Outer Planet Watch Team IOPW-PVOL

2012-08-01

We report on the long-term evolution of Saturn's sixth Great White Spot (GWS) event that initiated at northern mid-latitudes of the planet on December 5th, 2010 (Fletcher, L. et al. [2011]. Science 332, 1413-1417; Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 71-74; Fischer, G. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 75-77). We find from ground-based observations that the GWS formed a planetary-scale disturbance that encircled the planet in 50 days, covering the latitude band between 24.6° and 44.8°N (planetographic) or about 22,000 km in meridional extent and 280,000 km in full zonal circumference length. The head of the GWS was located at an averaged latitude of 40.8 ± 1°N in the peak of a westward jet and showed a mean linear drift in System III longitude of 2.793 deg/day, equivalent to a mean zonal velocity of u = -27.9 m s-1, with maximum speed fluctuations around this mean of -5.3 to +2.7 m s-1. The difference between the undisturbed jet peak velocity and the GWS head was Δu = -12 m s-1. Assuming the GWS has a deep origin at the water cloud a vertical extent of Δz ˜ 250 km is expected and we can derive a vertical shear of the zonal winds ∂u/∂z ˜ 5 × 10-5 s-1. The cloud morphology of the disturbance was sculpted by the winds at this latitude and their latitudinal shears, showing several distinct features: (1) A long-lived Dark Spot (DS, anticyclone vortex) placed at 41.5 ± 1.1°N with a speed u = -11.0 ± 0.1 m s-1 and a size of 7800 km (East-West) per 6000 km (North-South). (2) Two branches of zonally periodic features at both sides of the jet peak, a northern branch at 44.4°N (anticyclonic) and a southern branch at 32°N (cyclonic), with wavelengths in the range ˜ 5000-14,000 km. Precise long-term cloud tracking of disturbance features shows that they moved with speeds close to those of the prevailing winds, although differences up to ˜-45 m s-1 were measured, probably due to wave motion or to real wind changes produced by momentum transfers induced by the disturbance. Vortex DS and the GWS head encountered between the 15th and 19th of June 2011, disappearing within the resolution of our images. We present and discuss two simple hypothesis to explain the nature of this phenomenon. Taking into account our results together with previous historical events, we summarize the mysteries of GWS phenomena: seasonal forcing, occurrence at preferred latitudes only in the Northern hemisphere, no relation of the outbreaks with the wind profile structure and the existence of a continuous deep moist convection source to feed the disturbance.

Long-term variability of dust events in Iceland (1949-2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagsson-Waldhauserova, P.; Arnalds, O.; Olafsson, H.

2014-12-01

The long-term frequency of atmospheric dust observations was investigated for the southern part of Iceland and interpreted together with earlier results obtained from northeastern (NE) Iceland (Dagsson-Waldhauserova et al., 2013). In total, over 34 dust days per year on average occurred in Iceland based on conventionally used synoptic codes for dust observations. However, frequent volcanic eruptions, with the re-suspension of volcanic materials and dust haze, increased the number of dust events fourfold (135 dust days annually). The position of the Icelandic Low determined whether dust events occurred in the NE (16.4 dust days annually) or in the southern (S) part of Iceland (about 18 dust days annually). The decade with the most frequent dust days in S Iceland was the 1960s, but the 2000s in NE Iceland. A total of 32 severe dust storms (visibility < 500 m) were observed in Iceland with the highest frequency of events during the 2000s in S Iceland. The Arctic dust events (NE Iceland) were typically warm, occurring during summer/autumn (May-September) and during mild southwesterly winds, while the subarctic dust events (S Iceland) were mainly cold, occurring during winter/spring (March-May) and during strong northeasterly winds. About half of the dust events in S Iceland occurred in winter or at sub-zero temperatures. A good correlation was found between particulate matter (PM10) concentrations and visibility during dust observations at the stations Vík and Stórhöfði. This study shows that Iceland is among the dustiest areas of the world and that dust is emitted year-round.

Generation of Wind Waves in the Persian Gulf: A Numerical Investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, Y.; Kaihatu, J. M.

2010-12-01

The Persian Gulf is a long shallow basin located between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. Wind-wave generation processes in the region are often affected by the shamal, a strong wind caused by the passage of cold fronts over the mountains of Turkey and Kurdistan. This can set up sudden energetic wind seas, hampering marine traffic. It is not immediately clear whether present wind-wave models can predict this intense, short-term growth and evolution under these conditions. Furthermore, few wave measurements or models studies have been performed in this area. In advance of a wind-wave generation experiment to be conducted off the Qatar coast, we performed a climatological study of the wind wave environment in the Persian Gulf. Using the SWAN wave model as a baseline of the state of the art, five years (2004-2008)of wind field model hindcasts from COAMPS are used as forcing.To investigate the sensitivity of the results to bathymetry, the climatological analysis was run twice more, with refraction or wave breaking deactivated, in turn. The results do not show significant differences with and without refraction, which implies the wind-wave process in Persian Gulf is less dominated by the variation of bathymetry. However the results show that a large amount of wave is dissipated by wave breaking. Wide, flat and shallow bathymetry in Persian Gulf results in a long-fetch scenario, particularly for waves arriving from the northwest. It implies that long period wind-generated waves can be fully generated in this region. Wave height is therefore fully grown by the long-fetch condition, so as to lead in higher possibility of wave breaking and energy dissipation.

Long-Term Hearing Results After Ossiculoplasty.

PubMed

Cox, Matthew D; Trinidade, Aaron; Russell, James Shep; Dornhoffer, John L

2017-04-01

To determine if the OOPS index is predictive of long-term hearing results after ossiculoplasty. Case series with retrospective chart review. Tertiary care otology practice. Adult and pediatric patients (3-88 years of age). Ossiculoplasty with cartilage tympanoplasty, with or without mastoidectomy. Primary outcome measures included short-term hearing results (pure-tone average air-bone gap [PTA-ABG] measured between 60 days and 1 year after surgery), long-term hearing results (PTA-ABG measured ≥5 years after surgery), and the rate of successful ABG closure to ≤20 dB. Secondary measures included the need for revision surgery, delayed tympanic membrane graft failure, worsening conductive hearing loss (after an initially satisfactory hearing result), and recurrence of cholesteatoma. There was no significant difference between adults and children for short-term hearing results (average post-op PTA-ABG was 18.9 dB vs. 19.8 dB, respectively; p = 0.544), long-term hearing results (average final PTA-ABG was 19.3 dB vs. 19.4 dB, respectively; p = 0.922), or rate of ABG closure to less than 20 dB (63.1% vs. 58.0%, p = 0.282). Spearman's rank-order correlation (ρ) identified a strong positive correlation between OOPS index score and average post-operative PTA-ABG (ρ = 0.983; p < 0.001; 2-tailed), as well as average long-term PTA-ABG (ρ = 0.950, p < 0.001; 2-tailed). The OOPS index makes it possible to accurately prognosticate hearing outcomes in adult and pediatric patients undergoing ossiculoplasty in both the short term and the long term.

Martian tidal pressure and wind fields obtained from the Mariner 9 infrared spectroscopy experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pirraglia, J. A.; Conrath, B. J.

1973-01-01

Using temperature fields derived from the Mariner 9 infrared spectroscopy experiment, the Martian atmospheric tidal pressure and wind fields are calculated. Temperature as a function of local time, latitude, and atmospheric pressure level is obtained by secular and longitudinal averaging of the data. The resulting temperature field is approximated by a spherical harmonic expansion, retaining one symmetric and one asymmetric term for wavenumber zero and wavenumber one. Vertical averaging of the linearized momentum and continuity equations results in an inhomogeneous tidal equation for surface pressure fluctuations with the driving function related to the temperature field through the geopotential function and the hydrostatic equation. Solutions of the tidal equation show a diurnal fractional pressure amplitude approximately equal to one half of the vertically averaged diurnal fractional temperature amplitude.

Martian tidal pressure and wind fields obtained from the Mariner 9 infrared spectroscopy experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pirraglia, J. A.; Conrath, B. J.

1974-01-01

Using temperature fields derived from the Mariner 9 infrared spectroscopy experiment, the Martian atmospheric tidal pressure and wind fields are calculated. Temperature as a function of local time, latitude, and atmospheric pressure level is obtained by secular and longitudinal averaging of the data. The resulting temperature field is approximated by a spherical harmonic expansion, retaining one symmetric and one asymmetric term each for wavenumber zero and wavenumber one. Vertical averaging of the linearized momentum and continuity equations results in an inhomogeneous tidal equation for surface pressure fluctuations with the driving function related to the temperature field through the geopotential function and the hydrostatic equation. Solutions of the tidal equation show a diurnal fractional pressure amplitude approximately equal to one-half the vertically averaged diurnal fractional temperature amplitude.

Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Du, W. P.

2017-02-01

The PM2.5 problem is proving to be a major public crisis and is of great public-concern requiring an urgent response. Information about, and prediction of PM2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric dynamic theory is still limited due to the complexity of the formation and development of PM2.5. In this paper, we attempted to realize the relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China, using multi-source data mining. A correlation analysis model of PM2.5 to physical data (meteorological data, including regional average rainfall, daily mean temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and other pollutant concentration data, including CO, NO2, SO2, PM10) and social media data (microblog data) was proposed, based on the Multivariate Statistical Analysis method. The study found that during these factors, the value of average wind speed, the concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, and the daily number of microblog entries with key words 'Beijing; Air pollution' show high mathematical correlation with PM2.5 concentrations. The correlation analysis was further studied based on a big data's machine learning model- Back Propagation Neural Network (hereinafter referred to as BPNN) model. It was found that the BPNN method performs better in correlation mining. Finally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (hereinafter referred to as ARIMA) Time Series model was applied in this paper to explore the prediction of PM2.5 in the short-term time series. The predicted results were in good agreement with the observed data. This study is useful for helping realize real-time monitoring, analysis and pre-warning of PM2.5 and it also helps to broaden the application of big data and the multi-source data mining methods.

Application and verification of ECMWF seasonal forecast for wind energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Žagar, Mark; Marić, Tomislav; Qvist, Martin; Gulstad, Line

2015-04-01

A good understanding of long-term annual energy production (AEP) is crucial when assessing the business case of investing in green energy like wind power. The art of wind-resource assessment has emerged into a scientific discipline on its own, which has advanced at high pace over the last decade. This has resulted in continuous improvement of the AEP accuracy and, therefore, increase in business case certainty. Harvesting the full potential output of a wind farm or a portfolio of wind farms depends heavily on optimizing operation and management strategy. The necessary information for short-term planning (up to 14 days) is provided by standard weather and power forecasting services, and the long-term plans are based on climatology. However, the wind-power industry is lacking quality information on intermediate scales of the expected variability in seasonal and intra-annual variations and their geographical distribution. The seasonal power forecast presented here is designed to bridge this gap. The seasonal power production forecast is based on the ECMWF seasonal weather forecast and the Vestas' high-resolution, mesoscale weather library. The seasonal weather forecast is enriched through a layer of statistical post-processing added to relate large-scale wind speed anomalies to mesoscale climatology. The resulting predicted energy production anomalies, thus, include mesoscale effects not captured by the global forecasting systems. The turbine power output is non-linearly related to the wind speed, which has important implications for the wind power forecast. In theory, the wind power is proportional to the cube of wind speed. However, due to the nature of turbine design, this exponent is close to 3 only at low wind speeds, becomes smaller as the wind speed increases, and above 11-13 m/s the power output remains constant, called the rated power. The non-linear relationship between wind speed and the power output generally increases sensitivity of the forecasted power to the wind speed anomalies. On the other hand, in some cases and areas where turbines operate close to, or above the rated power, the sensitivity of power forecast is reduced. Thus, the seasonal power forecasting system requires good knowledge of the changes in frequency of events with sufficient wind speeds to have acceptable skill. The scientific background for the Vestas seasonal power forecasting system is described and the relationship between predicted monthly wind speed anomalies and observed wind energy production are investigated for a number of operating wind farms in different climate zones. Current challenges will be discussed and some future research and development areas identified.

Temporal and spatial patterns in wind stress and wind stress curl over the central Southern California Bight

USGS Publications Warehouse

Noble, Marlene A.; Rosenberger, Kurt J.; Rosenfeld, Leslie K.; Robertson, George L.

2012-01-01

In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey, together with several other federal and municipal agencies, began a series of field programs to determine along and cross-shelf transport patterns over the continental shelves in the central Southern California Bight. As a part of these programs, moorings that monitor winds were deployed off the Palos Verdes peninsula and within San Pedro Bay for six 3–4 month summer and winter periods between 2001 and 2008. In addition, nearly continuous records of winds for this 7-year period were obtained from a terrestrial site at the coast and from a basin site offshore of the long-term coastal site. The mean annual winds are downcoast at all sites. The alongshelf components of wind stress, which are the largest part of the low-frequency wind stress fields, are well correlated between basin, shelf and coastal sites. On average, the amplitude of alongshelf fluctuations in wind stress are 3–4 times larger over the offshore basin, compared to the coastal site, irrespective of whether the fluctuations represent the total, or just the correlated portion of the wind stress field. The curl in the large-scale wind stress tends to be positive, especially in the winter season when the mean wind stress is downcoast and larger at the offshore basin site than at the beach. However, since the fluctuation in wind stress amplitudes are usually larger than the mean, periods of weak negative curl do occur, especially in the summer season when the largest normalized differences in the amplitude of wind stress fluctuations are found in the nearshore region of the coastal ocean. Even though the low-frequency wind stress field is well-correlated over the continental shelf and offshore basins, out to distances of 35 km or more from the coast, winds even 10 km inshore of the beach do not represent the coastal wind field, at least in the summer months. The seasonal changes in the spatial structures in wind stress amplitudes suggest that an assessment of the amplitude of the responses of coastal ocean processes to wind forcing is complex and that the responses may have significant seasonal structures.

42 CFR 412.503 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... from a long-term care hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for... hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for prospective payment purposes for... PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEMS FOR INPATIENT HOSPITAL SERVICES Prospective Payment System for Long-Term Care...

42 CFR 412.503 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... from a long-term care hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for... hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for prospective payment purposes for... PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEMS FOR INPATIENT HOSPITAL SERVICES Prospective Payment System for Long-Term Care...

42 CFR 412.503 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... from a long-term care hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for... hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for prospective payment purposes for... PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEMS FOR INPATIENT HOSPITAL SERVICES Prospective Payment System for Long-Term Care...

42 CFR 412.503 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... from a long-term care hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for... hospital based on clinical characteristics and average resource use, for prospective payment purposes for... PROSPECTIVE PAYMENT SYSTEMS FOR INPATIENT HOSPITAL SERVICES Prospective Payment System for Long-Term Care...

A Persistent Disk Wind in GRS 1915+105 with NICER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neilsen, J.; Cackett, E.; Remillard, R. A.; Homan, J.; Steiner, J. F.; Gendreau, K.; Arzoumanian, Z.; Prigozhin, G.; LaMarr, B.; Doty, J.; Eikenberry, S.; Tombesi, F.; Ludlam, R.; Kara, E.; Altamirano, D.; Fabian, A. C.

2018-06-01

The bright, erratic black hole X-ray binary GRS 1915+105 has long been a target for studies of disk instabilities, radio/infrared jets, and accretion disk winds, with implications that often apply to sources that do not exhibit its exotic X-ray variability. With the launch of the Neutron star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER), we have a new opportunity to study the disk wind in GRS 1915+105 and its variability on short and long timescales. Here we present our analysis of 39 NICER observations of GRS 1915+105 collected during five months of the mission data validation and verification phase, focusing on Fe XXV and Fe XXVI absorption. We report the detection of strong Fe XXVI in 32 (>80%) of these observations, with another four marginal detections; Fe XXV is less common, but both likely arise in the well-known disk wind. We explore how the properties of this wind depend on broad characteristics of the X-ray lightcurve: mean count rate, hardness ratio, and fractional rms variability. The trends with count rate and rms are consistent with an average wind column density that is fairly steady between observations but varies rapidly with the source on timescales of seconds. The line dependence on spectral hardness echoes the known behavior of disk winds in outbursts of Galactic black holes; these results clearly indicate that NICER is a powerful tool for studying black hole winds.

Solar wind oscillations with a 1.3 year period

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Richardson, John D.; Paularena, Karolen I.; Belcher, John W.; Lazarus, Alan J.

1994-01-01

The Interplanetary Monitoring Platform 8 (IMP-8) and Voyager 2 spacecraft have recently detected a very strong modulation in the solar wind speed with an approximately 1.3 year period. Combined with evidence from long-term auroral and magnetometer studies, this suggests that fundamental changes in the Sun occur on a roughly 1.3 year time scale.

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management, to a...

Gradients and anisotropies of high energy cosmic rays in the outer heliosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fillius, W.; Roelof, E. C.; Smith, E. J.; Wood, D.; Ip, W. H.

1985-01-01

Two cosmic rays which pass through the same point going in opposite directions will, in the absence of scattering and inhomogeneities in the magnetic field, trace helices about adjacent flux tubes, whose centerlines are separated by one gyrodiameter. A directional anisotropy at the point suggests a difference in the number of cosmic rays loading the two flux tubes; that is, a density gradient over the baseline of a gyrodiameter. Previous studies at lower energies have shown that the cosmic ray density gradients vary in time and space. It is suggested that the radial gradient associated with solar cycle modulation is supported largely by narrow barriers which encircle the sun and propagate outward with the solar wind. If so, the anisotropy is a desirable way to detect spatial gradients, because it can be associated with the local solar wind and magnetic field conditions. Anisotropic measurements made by Cerenkov detectors on Pioneers 10 and 11 were studied. It was found that local anisotropy varies greatly, but that the long term average is consistent with the global radial gradient measured between two spacecraft over a baseline of many AU.

Shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex terrain.

PubMed

Fang, Jiannong; Peringer, Alexander; Stupariu, Mihai-Sorin; Pǎtru-Stupariu, Ileana; Buttler, Alexandre; Golay, Francois; Porté-Agel, Fernando

2018-10-15

Many mountainous regions with high wind energy potential are characterized by multi-scale variabilities of vegetation in both spatial and time dimensions, which strongly affect the spatial distribution of wind resource and its time evolution. To this end, we developed a coupled interdisciplinary modeling framework capable of assessing the shifts in wind energy potential following land-use driven vegetation dynamics in complex mountain terrain. It was applied to a case study area in the Romanian Carpathians. The results show that the overall shifts in wind energy potential following the changes of vegetation pattern due to different land-use policies can be dramatic. This suggests that the planning of wind energy project should be integrated with the land-use planning at a specific site to ensure that the expected energy production of the planned wind farm can be reached over its entire lifetime. Moreover, the changes in the spatial distribution of wind and turbulence under different scenarios of land-use are complex, and they must be taken into account in the micro-siting of wind turbines to maximize wind energy production and minimize fatigue loads (and associated maintenance costs). The proposed new modeling framework offers, for the first time, a powerful tool for assessing long-term variability in local wind energy potential that emerges from land-use change driven vegetation dynamics over complex terrain. Following a previously unexplored pathway of cause-effect relationships, it demonstrates a new linkage of agro- and forest policies in landscape development with an ultimate trade-off between renewable energy production and biodiversity targets. Moreover, it can be extended to study the potential effects of micro-climatic changes associated with wind farms on vegetation development (growth and patterning), which could in turn have a long-term feedback effect on wind resource distribution in mountainous regions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability in Gulf of Maine Hydrodynamics: 2002-2011.

PubMed

Li, Yizhen; He, Ruoying; McGillicuddy, Dennis J

2014-05-01

In situ observations including long-term moored meteorological and oceanographic measurements and multi-year gulf-wide ship survey data are used to quantify interannual variability of surface wind, river runoff, and hydrographic conditions in the Gulf of Maine during summers 2002-2011. The cumulative upwelling index shows that upwelling (downwelling)-favorable wind conditions were most persistent in 2010 (2005) over the 10-year study period. River discharge was highest in 2005; peak runoff occurred in early April in 2010 as opposed to late April to middle May in other years. Moored time series show that coastal water temperature was 0.5-2 °C warmer than average in summer 2010, and about 2 °C colder than average in 2004. Coastal salinity in April 2010 was the lowest in the 10-year study period. Both moored Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements and dynamic height/geostrophic velocity calculations based on gulf-wide ship survey data show May-June 2010 had one of the weakest alongshore transports in the western Gulf of Maine during the 10-year study period, likely associated with intrusions of warm slope water and fresher-than-usual Scotian Shelf water. Comparisons of coastal currents to the Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning (PSP) closure maps resulting from A. fundyense blooms suggest a linkage between alongshore transport and the downstream extent of toxicity.

Female Agassiz’s desert tortoise activity at a wind energy facility in southern California: The influence of an El Niño event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ennen, Josh R.; Meyer-Wilkins, Kathie; Lovich, Jeffrey

2012-01-01

We compared spring-summer activity of adult female Agassiz’s Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) among three consecutive years (1997, 1998, and 1999) that differed dramatically in winter rainfall and annual plant production at a wind energy facility in the Sonoran Desert of southern California. Winter rainfall was approximately 71%, 190%, and 17% of the long-term average (October-March = 114 mm) for this area in water years (WY) 1997, 1998, and 1999, respectively. The substantial precipitation caused by an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in WY 1998 produced a generous annual food plant supply (138.2 g dry biomass/ m2) in the spring. Primary production of winter annuals during below average rainfall years (WY 1997 and WY 1999) was reduced to 98.3 and 0.2 g/m2, respectively. Mean rates of movement and mean body condition indices (mass/length) did not differ significantly among the years. The drought year following ENSO (WY 1999) was statistically similar to ENSO in every other measured value, while WY 1997 (end of a two year drought) was statistically different from ENSO using activity area, minimum number of burrows used, and percentage of non-movements. Our data suggest that female G. agassizii activity can be influenced by environmental conditions in previous years.

Modelling Wind Effects on Subtidal Salinity in Apalachicola Bay, Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, W.; Jones, W. K.; Wu, T. S.

2002-07-01

Salinity is an important factor for oyster and estuarine productivity in Apalachicola Bay. Observations of salinity at oyster reefs have indicated a high correlation between subtidal salinity variations and the surface winds along the bay axis in an approximately east-west direction. In this paper, we applied a calibrated hydrodynamic model to examine the surface wind effects on the volume fluxes in the tidal inlets and the subtidal salinity variations in the bay. Model simulations show that, due to the large size of inlets located at the east and west ends of this long estuary, surface winds have significant effects on the volume fluxes in the estuary inlets for the water exchanges between the estuary and ocean. In general, eastward winds cause the inflow from the inlets at the western end and the outflow from inlets at the eastern end of the bay. Winds at 15 mph speed in the east-west direction can induce a 2000 m3 s-1 inflow of saline seawater into the bay from the inlets, a rate which is about 2·6 times that of the annual average freshwater inflow from the river. Due to the varied wind-induced volume fluxes in the inlets and the circulation in the bay, the time series of subtidal salinity at oyster reefs considerably increases during strong east-west wind conditions in comparison to salinity during windless conditions. In order to have a better understanding of the characteristics of the wind-induced subtidal circulation and salinity variations, the researchers also connected model simulations under constant east-west wind conditions. Results show that the volume fluxes are linearly proportional to the east-west wind stresses. Spatial distributions of daily average salinity and currents clearly show the significant effects of winds on the bay.

Systems Performance Analyses of Alaska Wind-Diesel Projects; St. Paul, Alaska (Fact Sheet)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baring-Gould, I.

2009-04-01

This fact sheet summarizes a systems performance analysis of the wind-diesel project in St. Paul, Alaska. Data provided for this project include load data, average wind turbine output, average diesel plant output, dump (controlling) load, average net capacity factor, average net wind penetration, estimated fuel savings, and wind system availability.

Convective and radiative components of wind chill in sheep: Estimation from meteorological records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D.; Mount, L. E.

1987-06-01

Wind chill is defined as the excess of sensible heat loss over what would occur at zero wind speed with other conditions unchanged. Wind chill can be broken down into a part that is determined by air temperature and a radiative part that comprises wind-dependent effects on additional long-wave radiative exchange and on solar radiation (by reducing solar warming). Radiative exchange and gain from solar radiation are affected by changes that are produced by wind in both surface and fleece insulations. Coefficients are derived for (a) converting the components of sensible heat exchange (air-temperature-dependent including both convective and associated long-wave radiative, additional long-wave radiative and solar) into the components of the total heat loss that are associated with wind and (b) for calculating equivalent air temperature changes. The coefficients contain terms only in wind speed, wetting of the fleece and fleece depth; these determine the external insulation. Calculation from standard meteorological records, using Plymouth and Aberdeen in 1973 as examples, indicate that in April September 1973 at Plymouth reduction in effective solar warming constituted 28% of the 24-h total wind chill, and 7% in the other months of the year combined; at Aberdeen the corresponding percentages were 25% and 6%. Mean hour-of-day estimates for the months of April and October showed that at midday reduction in solar warming due to wind rose to the order of half the air-temperature-dependent component of wind chill, with a much smaller effect in January. For about six hours at midday in July reduction in solar warming due to wind was similar in magnitude to the air-temperature-dependent component. It is concluded that realistic estimates of wind chill cannot be obtained unless the effect of solar radiation is taken into account. Failure to include solar radiation results not only in omitting solar warming but also in omitting the effects of wind in reducing that warming. The exchange of sensible (non-evaporative) heat loss between a homeothermic animal and its environment can be divided into two parts: one part is due to the temperature difference between the animal and the surrounding air, and the other part is due to additional long-wave radiative exchange between animal and environment and to solar radiation. Both parts of the heat exchange are determined in magnitude by the animal's thermal insulation, which is itself affected by windspeed and wetting. Wind diminishes as animal's external insulation, so increasing heat loss under all conditions when the air temperature is lower than the animal's surface temperature: this effect is termed wind chill. Wind chill has previously been investigated more commonly in relation to man (Burton an Edholm, 1955; Smithson and Baldwin, 1978; Mumford, 1979; Baldwin and Smithson, 1979). This paper is concerned with the separate contributions to wind chill calculated for sheep that can be associated with convective and radiative heat exchanges.

Long-term trends in a Dimictic Lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robertson, Dale M.; Hsieh, Yi-Fang; Lathrop, Richard C; Wu, Chin H; Magee, Madeline; Hamilton, David P.

2016-01-01

 The one-dimensional hydrodynamic ice model, DYRESM-WQ-I, was modified to simulate ice cover and thermal structure of dimictic Lake Mendota, Wisconsin, USA, over a continuous 104-year period (1911–2014). The model results were then used to examine the drivers of changes in ice cover and water temperature, focusing on the responses to shifts in air temperature, wind speed, and water clarity at multiyear timescales. Observations of the drivers include a change in the trend of warming air temperatures from 0.081 °C per decade before 1981 to 0.334 °C per decade thereafter, as well as a shift in mean wind speed from 4.44 m s−1 before 1994 to 3.74 m s−1 thereafter. Observations show that Lake Mendota has experienced significant changes in ice cover: later ice-on date(9.0 days later per century), earlier ice-off date (12.3 days per century), decreasing ice cover duration (21.3 days per century), while model simulations indicate a change in maximum ice thickness (12.7 cm decrease per century). Model simulations also show changes in the lake thermal regime of earlier stratification onset (12.3 days per century), later fall turnover (14.6 days per century), longer stratification duration (26.8 days per century), and decreasing summer hypolimnetic temperatures (−1.4 °C per century). Correlation analysis of lake variables and driving variables revealed ice cover variables, stratification onset, epilimnetic temperature, and hypolimnetic temperature were most closely correlated with air temperature, whereas freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic heating, and fall turnover date were more closely correlated with wind speed. Each lake variable (i.e., ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, maximum ice thickness, freeze-over water temperature, stratification onset, fall turnover date, stratification duration, epilimnion temperature, hypolimnion temperature, and hypolimnetic heating) was averaged for the three periods (1911–1980, 1981–1993, and 1994–2014) delineated by abrupt changes in air temperature and wind speed. Average summer hypolimnetic temperature and fall turnover date exhibit significant differences between the third period and the first two periods. Changes in ice cover (ice-on and ice-off dates, ice cover duration, and maximum ice thickness) exhibit an abrupt change after 1994, which was related in part to the warm El Niño winter of 1997–1998. Under-ice water temperature, freeze-over water temperature, hypolimnetic temperature, fall turnover date, and stratification duration demonstrate a significant difference in the third period (1994–2014), when air temperature was warmest and wind speeds decreased rather abruptly. The trends in ice cover and water temperature demonstrate responses to both long-term and abrupt changes in meteorological conditions that can be complemented with numerical modeling to better understand how these variables will respond in a future climate.

Wind Tunnel Test Technique and Instrumentation Development at LaRC

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putnam, Lawrence E.

1999-01-01

LaRC has an aggressive test technique development program underway. This program has been developed using 3rd Generation R&D management techniques and is a closely coordinated program between suppliers and wind tunnel operators- wind tunnel customers' informal input relative to their needs has been an essential ingredient in developing the research portfolio. An attempt has been made to balance this portfolio to meet near term and long term test technique needs. Major efforts are underway to develop techniques for determining model wing twist and location of boundary layer transition in the NTF (National Transonic Facility). The foundation of all new instrumentation developments, procurements, and upgrades will be based on uncertainty analysis.

Climate and ET: Does Plant Water Requirements Increase during Droughts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fipps, G.; Bonaiti, G.; Swanson, C.

2012-04-01

With the expected rise in global warming and increased frequency of extreme climate variability in the coming decades, conservation and efficient use of water resources is essential and must make use of the most accurate and representative data available. Historically, governmental and private organizations have used estimates of plant water use estimated from a variety of methods for long-term water planning, for designing hydraulic structures, and for establishing regulatory guidance and conservation programs intended to reduce water waste. In recent years, there has been an expansion of agricultural weather station networks which report daily ETo (potential evapotranspiration) and commercial irrigation controllers with instrumentation which calculate real-time ETo from weather parameters. Efforts are underway to use this more precise information for regional water planning and ETo is routinely used for designing and implementing drought response programs. The year 2011 marked the driest year on record in the State of Texas. Compounding the lack of rainfall was record heat during the summer of 2011. In 2011, real-time ETo (reference evapotranspiration) data in Texas was 30 to 50% higher than historic averages. The implications are quite serious, as most current water planning and drought contingency plans do not take into consideration increases in ET during such periods, and irrigation planning and capacity sizing are based on historic averages of consumptive use. This paper examines the relationship between ET and climate during this extreme climatic event. While the solar radiation was near normal levels, temperature and wind was much higher and dew points much lower than norms. The variability and statistical difference between long term average ETo and ETo measurements (from 2006 to 2011) for selected weather stations of the Texas ET Network.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

DOE PAGES

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; ...

2014-08-26

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity ofmore » simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.« less

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy for the investigation of aerosol indirect effects since it provides well-constrained meteorology without strongly perturbing the model's mean climate.

Mars atmospheric loss to space: Observations of present-day loss and implications for long-term volatile evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakosky, Bruce; Brain, David; Luhmann, Janet; Grebowsky, Joe

2017-04-01

MAVEN completed its first Mars year of science mapping in October 2016. Results show loss of gas to space by multiple processes, including solar-wind pick-up, sputtering, photochemical loss, and thermal escape, along with their responses to changing solar and solar-wind boundary conditions and to discrete solar events. By understanding the current loss rates and the processes controlling them, we are able to examine the long-term loss to space, including the effects of different solar conditions early in history; in addition, we are able to use stable-isotope ratios to derive the integrated loss to space through time. Preliminary results suggest that loss to space was a dominant, if not the dominant, mechanism that drove the changing climate through time. We will present a framework for analyzing and interpreting the results, along with preliminary results on the extrapolation to long timescales.

Short-term annoyance reactions to stationary and time-varying wind turbine and road traffic noise: A laboratory study.

PubMed

Schäffer, Beat; Schlittmeier, Sabine J; Pieren, Reto; Heutschi, Kurt; Brink, Mark; Graf, Ralf; Hellbrück, Jürgen

2016-05-01

Current literature suggests that wind turbine noise is more annoying than transportation noise. To date, however, it is not known which acoustic characteristics of wind turbines alone, i.e., without effect modifiers such as visibility, are associated with annoyance. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate and compare the short-term noise annoyance reactions to wind turbines and road traffic in controlled laboratory listening tests. A set of acoustic scenarios was created which, combined with the factorial design of the listening tests, allowed separating the individual associations of three acoustic characteristics with annoyance, namely, source type (wind turbine, road traffic), A-weighted sound pressure level, and amplitude modulation (without, periodic, random). Sixty participants rated their annoyance to the sounds. At the same A-weighted sound pressure level, wind turbine noise was found to be associated with higher annoyance than road traffic noise, particularly with amplitude modulation. The increased annoyance to amplitude modulation of wind turbines is not related to its periodicity, but seems to depend on the modulation frequency range. The study discloses a direct link of different acoustic characteristics to annoyance, yet the generalizability to long-term exposure in the field still needs to be verified.

Diurnal cross-shore thermal exchange on a tropical forereef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L.; Pawlak, G.; Wells, J. R.; Monismith, S. G.; Merrifield, M. A.

2014-09-01

Observations of the velocity structure at the Kilo Nalu Observatory on the south shore of Oahu, Hawaii show that thermally driven baroclinic exchange is a dominant mechanism for cross-shore transport for this tropical forereef environment. Estimates of the exchange and net volume fluxes are comparable and show that the average residence time for the zone shoreward of the 12 m isobath is generally much less than 1 day. Although cross-shore wind stress influences the diurnal cross-shore exchange, surface heat flux is identified as the primary forcing mechanism from the phase relationships and from analysis of momentum and buoyancy balances for the record-averaged diurnal structure. Dynamic flow regimes are characterized based on a two-dimensional theoretical framework and the observations of the thermal structure at Kilo Nalu are shown to be in the unsteady temperature regime. Diurnal phasing and the cross-shore momentum balance suggest that turbulent stress divergence is an important driver of the baroclinic exchange. While the thermally driven exchange has a robust diurnal profile in the long term, there is high temporal variability on shorter time scales. Ensemble-averaged diurnal profiles indicate that the exchange is strongly modulated by surface heat flux, wind speed/direction, and alongshore velocity direction. The latter highlights the role of alongshore variability in the thermally driven exchange. Analysis of the thermal balance in the nearshore region indicates that the cross-shore exchange accounts for roughly 38% of the advective heat transport on a daily basis. This article was corrected on 10 OCT 2014. See the end of the full text for details.

A Novel Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Wind Farms of Northwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jian-Zhou; Wang, Yun

2017-01-01

Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test, and Morgan-Granger-Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.

Dynamic Average-Value Modeling of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator Wind Energy Conversion Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahab, Azin

In a Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind energy conversion system, the rotor of a wound rotor induction generator is connected to the grid via a partial scale ac/ac power electronic converter which controls the rotor frequency and speed. In this research, detailed models of the DFIG wind energy conversion system with Sinusoidal Pulse-Width Modulation (SPWM) scheme and Optimal Pulse-Width Modulation (OPWM) scheme for the power electronic converter are developed in detail in PSCAD/EMTDC. As the computer simulation using the detailed models tends to be computationally extensive, time consuming and even sometimes not practical in terms of speed, two modified approaches (switching-function modeling and average-value modeling) are proposed to reduce the simulation execution time. The results demonstrate that the two proposed approaches reduce the simulation execution time while the simulation results remain close to those obtained using the detailed model simulation.

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

USGS Publications Warehouse

von Biela, Vanessa R.; Zimmerman, Christian E.; Moulton, L. L.

2011-01-01

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0·29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r2 = 0·14-0·31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r2 = 0·13-0·50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels.

Environmental impacts on offspring survival during the lambing period in central Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coronato, F.

Weather conditions are the main factors affecting the survival rate of newborn lambs. In the windy climate of Patagonia, the influence of weather conditions is exacerbated as the wind speed increases noticeably in spring. If the wind increases faster than the temperature rises, wind chill conditions worsen temporarily. This departure from the predictable improvement in bioclimatic conditions as the season moves towards summer may coincide with lambing, if this is not adequately regulated. This paper explores bioclimatic conditions during the 2-month period in which lambing may take place (i.e. mid-September to mid-November), and identifies the unfavourable period that occurs in the second fortnight of October. Starting from the Mount and Brown (Agric Meteorol 27:241-255, 1982) model to assess thermal stress in sheep by means of common meteorological records, a simpler model was developed employing in long-term records. For 2-week averages of temperature (Tf), wind speed (Vf) and total precipitation (Pf), the average heat loss in sheep (HLf) was 40.40-2.07Tf+5.64Vf+0.04Pf. (r2=0.95). A 24-year series of Tf, Vf and Pf data was employed in the calculation of HLf, and results showed this parameter was significantly higher in the second fortnight in October. HLf values were classified into four groups (from ''very good'' to ''very bad'' conditions); once again, significant differences appeared in the second fortnight in October. Finally, HLf during the lambing period was correlated to the percentage of lambs surviving 2 months later. Significant differences between the survival of lambs born under ''very bad'' and ''very good'' conditions were found, but intermediate HLf conditions did not show a clear pattern. The survival rate was best correlated to HLf in the fortnight preceding lambing (P<0.05). This suggests that bioclimatic conditions during late pregnancy are at least as important as conditions during lambing in determining the survival lambs.

Thermal Influence of a Large Green Space on a Hot Urban Environment.

PubMed

Sugawara, Hirofumi; Shimizu, Shogo; Takahashi, Hideo; Hagiwara, Shinsuke; Narita, Ken-Ichi; Mikami, Takehiko; Hirano, Tatsuki

2016-01-01

City-scale warming is becoming a serious problem in terms of human health. Urban green spaces are expected to act as a countermeasure for urban warming, and therefore better understanding of the micro-climate benefits of urban green is needed. This study quantified the thermal influence of a large green park in Tokyo, Japan on the surrounding urban area by collecting long-term measurements. Apparent variations in the temperature difference between the park and surrounding town were found at both the diurnal and seasonal scales. Advection by regional-scale wind and turbulent mixing transfers colder air from the park to urban areas in its vicinity. The extent of the park's thermal influence on the town was greater on the downwind side of the park (450 m) than on the upwind side (65 m). The extent was also greater in an area where the terrain slopes down toward the town. Even on calm nights, the extent of the thermal influence extended by the park breeze to an average of 200 m from the park boundary. The park breeze was characterized by its divergent flow in a horizontal plane, which was found to develop well in calm conditions late at night (regional scale wind <1.5 m s and after 02:00 LST). The average magnitude of the cooling effect of the park breeze was estimated at 39 Wm. This green space tempered the hot summer nights on a city block scale. These findings can help urban planners in designing a heat-adapted city. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

ESPC Coupled Global Prediction System

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

active, and cloud- nucleating aerosols into NAVGEM for use in long-term simulations and forecasts and for use in the full coupled system. APPROACH...cloud- nucleating aerosols into NAVGEM for use in long-term simulations and forecasts for ESPC applications. We are relying on approaches, findings...function. For sea salt we follow NAAPS and use a source that depends on ocean surface winds and relative humidity . In lieu of the relevant

Space Weathering Radiation Environment of the Inner Solar System from the Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. F.; Papitashvili, N. E.

2016-12-01

The surfaces of Mercury, the Moon, the moons of Mars, the asteroids, and other small bodies of the inner solar system have been directly weathered for millions to billions of years by solar wind, energetic particle, and solar ultraviolet irradiation. Surface regolith layers to meters in depth are formed by impacts of smaller bodies and micrometeoroids. Sample return missions to small bodies, such as Osiris-REx to the asteroid Bennu, are intended to recover information on the early history of solar system formation, but must contend with the long-term space weathering effects that perturb the original structure and composition of the affected bodies. Solar wind plasma ions at keV energies penetrate only to sub-micron depths, while more energetic solar & heliospheric particles up to MeV energies reach centimeter depths, and higher-energy galactic cosmic rays to GeV energies fully penetrate through the impact regolith. The weathering effects vary with energy and penetration depth from ion implantation and erosive sputtering at solar wind energies to chemical and structural evolution driven by MeV - GeV particles. The energy versus depth dependence of such effects is weighted by the differential flux distributions of the incident particles as measured near the orbits of the affected bodies over long periods of time. Our Virtual Energetic Particle Observatory (http://vepo.gsfc.nasa.gov/) enables simultaneous access to multiple data sets from 1973 through the present in the form of differential flux spectral plots and downloadable data tables. The most continuous VEPO coverage exists for geospace data sources at 1 AU from the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform 8 (IMP-8), launched in 1973, through the present 1-AU constellation including the ACE, WIND, SOHO, and Stereo-A/B spacecraft. Other mission data, e.g. more occasionally from Pioneer-10/11, Helios-1/2, Voyager-1/2, and Ulysses, extend heliospheric coverage from the orbit of Mercury to that of Mars, the asteroid belt, and beyond. Using data from the VEPO services, we show the time-averaged spectra of protons and helium during 1973 - 2016 from Mercury to Mars. The main contributors on solar cycle time scales at keV to MeV energies are large solar flare and ICME events. These time-averaged spectra can then be used for space weathering models of the inner solar system.

A Note on the Barotropic Response of Sea Level to Time-Dependent Wind Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fu, Lee-Lueng; Davidson, Roger A.

1995-01-01

This study examines the extent to which sea level variations at periods between 30 days and 1 year and spatial scales greater than 1000 km can be described by the wind- driven linear barotropic vorticity dynamics. The TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric observations of sea level and the wind products of the National Meteorological Center are used as the database for the study. Each term of the linear barotropic vorticity equation was evaluated by averaging over regions of 10 deg x 10 deg. In most of the open ocean the result of the analysis suggests that the sea level variabilities at the scales considered cannot be fully described by the equation; the apparent net vorticity change is more than what can be explained by the local wind stress curl. In the few regions where the wind stress curl is strong enough to balance the vorticity budget, predominantly in the northeast Pacific and the southeast Pacific, the balance is basically achieved in terms of the time-dependent topographic Sverdrup relation, namely, the balance between the advection of the planetary vorticity plus the topography-induced vorticity and the forcing by the wind stress curl.

To bloom or not to bloom: contrasting responses of cyanobacteria to recent heat waves explained by critical thresholds of abiotic drivers.

PubMed

Huber, Veronika; Wagner, Carola; Gerten, Dieter; Adrian, Rita

2012-05-01

Past heat waves are considered harbingers of future climate change. In this study, we have evaluated the effects of two recent Central European summer heat waves (2003 and 2006) on cyanobacterial blooms in a eutrophic, shallow lake. While a bloom of cyanobacteria developed in 2006, consistent with our expectations, cyanobacterial biomass surprisingly remained at a record-low during the entire summer of 2003. Critical thresholds of abiotic drivers extracted from the long-term (1993-2007) data set of the studied lake using classification tree analysis (CTA) proved suitable to explain these observations. We found that cyanobacterial blooms were especially favoured in 2006 because thermal stratification was critically intense (Schmidt stability >44 g cm cm(-2)) and long-lasting (>3 weeks). Our results also suggest that some cyanobacterial species (Anabaena sp.) benefitted directly from the stable water column, whereas other species (Planktothrix sp.) took advantage of stratification-induced internal nutrient loading. In 2003, conditions were less favourable for cyanobacteria due to a spell of lower temperatures and stronger winds in mid-summer; as a result, the identified thresholds of thermal stratification were hardly ever reached. Overall, our study shows that extracting critical thresholds of environmental drivers from long-term records is a promising avenue for predicting ecosystem responses to future climate warming. Specifically, our results emphasize that not average temperature increase but changes in short-term meteorological variability will determine whether cyanobacteria will bloom more often in a warmer world.

Changes in Mass Flux of Tephra from the Lava Lake in Overlook Crater, Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai`i

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, D. A.; Orr, T. R.; Patrick, M. R.

2016-12-01

The mass flux of tephra (mostly Pele's hair and tears, hollow spherules, and lithic clasts) from the lava lake in Overlook crater varies on short (seconds-minutes), intermediate (hours-days), and long (months) time scales. The tephra is collected almost daily from a network of 10 buckets within 400 m of, and 100-150 m above, the lava lake; bucket locations have not changed during the eruption. A mass accumulation rate (AR) is calculated for the network; since April 2008, the AR averages 0.17 g/m2/h ( 5×10-8 kg/m2/s). The tephra forms during almost constant spattering at the SE sink (the main downwelling site) and ephemeral sites along the crater wall, as well as from sporadic, rockfall-induced violent outgassing that can eject decimeter-size spatter clots onto the crater rim; the average AR excludes these violent events. The rockfalls, and nearly constant raveling from the crater wall, introduce lithic clasts into the tephra. The lithic content of the tephra has decreased with time, reflecting both greater wall stability and higher lake level, and was usually <10 mass percent in 2014-2015 and <5 percent in 2016. At short time scales, juvenile AR increases during episodic gas-piston events, rockfalls, and strong winds (>7 m/s). At intermediate and long time scales, juvenile AR shows no correlation with measured SO2 output and only weak or no correlation with wind speed, but it often tracks the elevation of the lake surface—higher when lava is nearer the buckets. For example, both lava level and juvenile AR were unusually high in January-July 2016. Before 2016, however, 7-9 periods of heightened juvenile production (see figure below), each lasting several months, show no correlation with other monitored parameters—lake level, SO2, wind speed and direction, or downwelling location. Often AR gradually increased to a peak before falling off, sometimes to nearly zero. We speculate that such long-term variations result from changes in magma supply rate, gas concentration, or rise frequency of decoupled gas slugs. These changes may be too small or slow to detect by current geodetic and gas monitoring. They suggest a slowly pulsing rate of gas delivery or magma supply on a several-month time scale at Kīlauea.

Examples of mesoscale structures and short-term wind variations detected by VHF Doppler radar

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forbes, G. S.

1986-01-01

The first of three wind profilers planned for operation in central and western Pennsylvania began full-time, high-quality operation during July 1985. It is located about 20 km south-southeast of University Park and operates at 50 MHz. Another 50-MHz radar and a 400-MHz radar are to be installed over the next few months, to complete a mesoscale triangle with sides of 120 to 160 km. During the period since early July, a number of weather systems have passed over the wind profiler. Those accompanied by thunderstorms caused data losses either because the Department computer system lost power or because power went out at the profiler site. A backup power supply and an automatic re-start program will be added to the profiler system to minimize such future losses. Data have normally been averaged over a one-hour period, although there have been some investigations of shorter-period averaging. In each case, preliminary examinations reveal that the profiler winds are indicative of meteorological phenomena. The only occasions of bad or missing data are obtained when airplane noise is occasionally experienced and when the returned power is nearly at the noise level, at the upper few gates, where a consensus wind cannot be determined. Jets streams, clouds, and diurnal variations of winds are discussed.

Development of a Wind Plant Large-Eddy Simulation with Measurement-Driven Atmospheric Inflow: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quon, Eliot; Churchfield, Matthew; Cheung, Lawrence

This paper details the development of an aeroelastic wind plant model with large-eddy simulation (LES). The chosen LES solver is the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) based on the OpenFOAM framework, coupled to NREL's comprehensive aeroelastic analysis tool, FAST. An atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) precursor simulation was constructed based on assessments of meteorological tower, lidar, and radar data over a 3-hour window. This precursor was tuned to the specific atmospheric conditions that occurred both prior to and during the measurement campaign, enabling capture of a night-to-day transition in the turbulent ABL. In the absence of height-varying temperature measurements, spatiallymore » averaged radar data were sufficient to characterize the atmospheric stability of the wind plant in terms of the shear profile, and near-ground temperature sensors provided a reasonable estimate of the ground heating rate describing the morning transition. A full aeroelastic simulation was then performed for a subset of turbines within the wind plant, driven by the precursor. Analysis of two turbines within the array, one directly waked by the other, demonstrated good agreement with measured time-averaged loads.« less

Development of a Wind Plant Large-Eddy Simulation with Measurement-Driven Atmospheric Inflow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Quon, Eliot W.; Churchfield, Matthew J.; Cheung, Lawrence

This paper details the development of an aeroelastic wind plant model with large-eddy simulation (LES). The chosen LES solver is the Simulator for Wind Farm Applications (SOWFA) based on the OpenFOAM framework, coupled to NREL's comprehensive aeroelastic analysis tool, FAST. An atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) precursor simulation was constructed based on assessments of meteorological tower, lidar, and radar data over a 3-hour window. This precursor was tuned to the specific atmospheric conditions that occurred both prior to and during the measurement campaign, enabling capture of a night-to-day transition in the turbulent ABL. In the absence of height-varying temperature measurements, spatiallymore » averaged radar data were sufficient to characterize the atmospheric stability of the wind plant in terms of the shear profile, and near-ground temperature sensors provided a reasonable estimate of the ground heating rate describing the morning transition. A full aeroelastic simulation was then performed for a subset of turbines within the wind plant, driven by the precursor. Analysis of two turbines within the array, one directly waked by the other, demonstrated good agreement with measured time-averaged loads.« less

Field observation and analysis of wave-current-sediment movement in Caofeidian Sea area in the Bohai Bay, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zuo, Li-qin; Lu, Yong-jun; Wang, Ya-ping; Liu, Huai-xiang

2014-06-01

In order to study the mechanism of flow-sediment movement, it is essential to obtain measured data of water hydrodynamic and sediment concentration process with high spatial and temporal resolution in the bottom boundary layer (BBL). Field observations were carried out in the northwest Caofeidian sea area in the Bohai Bay. Near 2 m isobath (under the lowest tidal level), a tripod system was installed with AWAC (Acoustic Wave And Current), ADCP (Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers), OBS-3A (Optical Backscatter Point Sensor), ADV (Acoustic Doppler Velocimeters), etc. The accurate measurement of the bottom boundary layer during a single tidal period was carried out, together with a long-term sediment concentration measurement under different hydrological conditions. All the measured data were used to analyze the characteristics of wave-current-sediment movement and the BBL. Analysis was performed on flow structure, shear stress, roughness, eddy viscosity and other parameters of the BBL. Two major findings were made. Firstly, from the measured data, the three-layer distribution model of the velocity profiles and eddy viscosities in the wave-current BBL are proposed in the observed sea area; secondly, the sediment movement is related closely to wind-waves in the muddy coast area where sediment is clayey silt: 1) The observed suspended sediment concentration under light wind conditions is very low, with the peak value generally smaller than 0.1 kg/m3 and the average value being 0.03 kg/m3; 2) The sediment concentration increases continuously under the gales over 6-7 in Beaufort scale, under a sustained wind action. The measured peak sediment concentration at 0.4 m above the seabed is 0.15-0.32 kg/m3, and the average sediment concentration during wind-wave action is 0.08-0.18 kg/m3, which is about 3-6 times the value under light wind conditions. The critical wave height signaling remarkable changes of sediment concentration is 0.5 m. The results show that the suspended load sediment concentration is mainly influenced by wave-induced sediment suspension.

Cross-shore variation of wind-driven flows on the inner shelf in Long Bay, South Carolina, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gutierrez, Benjamin T.; Voulgaris, George; Work, Paul A.

2006-03-01

The cross-shore structure of subtidal flows on the inner shelf (7 to 12 m water depth) of Long Bay, South Carolina, a concave-shaped bay, is examined through the analysis of nearly 80 days of near-bed (1.7-2.2 m above bottom) current observations acquired during the spring and fall of 2001. In the spring and under northeastward winds (upwelling favorable) a two-layered flow was observed at depths greater than 10 m, while closer to the shore the currents were aligned with the wind. The two-layered flow is attributed to the presence of stratification, which has been observed under similar conditions in the South Atlantic Bight. When the wind stress was southwestward (downwelling favorable) and exceeded 0.1 N/m2, vertical mixing occurred, the two-layered flow pattern disappeared, and currents were directed alongshore with the wind at all sites and throughout the water column. In the fall, near-bed flows close to the shore (water depth <7 m) were often reduced compared to or opposed those measured farther offshore under southwestward winds. A simplified analysis of the depth-averaged, alongshore momentum balance illustrates that the alongshore pressure gradient approached or exceeded the magnitude of the alongshore wind stress at the same time that the nearshore alongshore current opposed the wind stress and alongshore currents farther offshore. In addition, the analysis suggests that the wind stress is reduced closer to shore so that the alongshore pressure gradient is large enough to drive the flow against the wind.

The influence of climate, topography and land-use on the hydrology of ephemeral upland catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, E.; Webb, J.; Dresel, E.

2016-12-01

We report on an on-going project aimed at determining the effects of climate variability and land use change on water resources in ephemeral productive catchments. Meteorological data (including rainfall, solar radiation, air temperature, humidity and wind speed), streamflow and groundwater levels were collected continuously for over five years in seven ephemeral catchments in southeastern Australia. The catchments, dominated by either pasture for grazing (four) or Eucalyptus globulus (blue gum) plantations of different ages (three), were located in three different geological settings. Rainfall varied from higher than the long-term average of this area for the initial years of the study period to much drier than the long-term average for the last two years. Groundwater levels in the farm sites remained stable or slightly increased through the study period, while levels declined in all the plantation catchments, where evapotranspiration rates were greater than rainfall. The trees intercept groundwater recharge and in some areas of the catchments directly access groundwater. Streamflow occurred mainly during winter, with short-term flows in summer caused by sporadic large rainfall events. Despite the large annual rainfall variability, flow rates in each year were similar in most catchments, with the duration of flow being important in determining the annual flow. The frequency rather than the amount of rainfall events determines the generation of streamflow in the two catchments with steeper slopes. The effect of the tree plantations on streamflow varied from a substantial reduction in one catchment to no effect in another, where the tree rows are oriented predominantly downslope, allowing greater runoff. In the third plantation catchment, geology is the main driver of runoff due to capture into underlying karst conduits.

Long-term changes in the South China Sea summer monsoon revealed by station observations of the Xisha Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jianyin; Yang, Song; Li, Cunhui; Li, Xia

2007-05-01

The authors depict the long-term changes in the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon using observational data of the Xisha Islands. The SCS monsoon is an important component of the Asian monsoon system, and its long-term changes have seldom been explored because of the unavailability of reliable data. The daily Xisha station observations provide an important source of information for understanding the changes in the monsoon. The intensity of the SCS summer monsoon measured by kinetic energy decreased significantly from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004. This change in monsoon was mainly caused by the weakening of the meridional component of lower tropospheric winds, and the weakening in the mean flow was signaled by decreased frequency of strong southerlies (6 m s-1 and above) of the daily winds. The weakening of the monsoon was also associated with increases in sea surface temperature and surface and lower tropospheric air temperatures over SCS, which occurred more frequently when daily surface temperature reaches 29°C and higher. The long-term warming of the lower troposphere was accompanied by cooling at the upper troposphere, destabilizing the local atmosphere. However, from 1958-1977 to 1978-2004, the long-term change in Xisha precipitation tended to decrease; furthermore, in fact, the station precipitation became less variable. Thus besides local air-sea interaction, large-scale atmospheric forcing also plays an important role in causing the long-term change of the Xisha precipitation. Indeed, the warming of Xisha was linked to large-scale warming in the tropics including SCS and was associated with smaller thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the surrounding oceans, which weakened monsoon circulation.

Source apportionment of PAHs and n-alkanes in respirable particles in Tehran, Iran by wind sector and vertical profile.

PubMed

Moeinaddini, Mazaher; Esmaili Sari, Abbas; Riyahi bakhtiari, Alireza; Chan, Andrew Yiu-Chung; Taghavi, Seyed Mohammad; Hawker, Darryl; Connell, Des

2014-06-01

The vertical concentration profiles and source contributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and n-alkanes in respirable particle samples (PM4) collected at 10, 100, 200 and 300-m altitude from the Milad Tower of Tehran, Iran during fall and winter were investigated. The average concentrations of total PAHs and total n-alkanes were 16.7 and 591 ng/m(3), respectively. The positive matrix factorization (PMF) model was applied to the chemical composition and wind data to apportion the contributing sources. The five PAH source factors identified were: 'diesel' (56.3% of total PAHs on average), 'gasoline' (15.5%), 'wood combustion, and incineration' (13%), 'industry' (9.2%), and 'road soil particle' (6.0%). The four n-alkane source factors identified were: 'petrogenic' (65% of total n-alkanes on average), 'mixture of petrogenic and biomass burning' (15%), 'mixture of biogenic and fossil fuel' (11.5%), and 'biogenic' (8.5%). Source contributions by wind sector were also estimated based on the wind sector factor loadings from PMF analysis. Directional dependence of sources was investigated using the conditional probability function (CPF) and directional relative strength (DRS) methods. The calm wind period was found to contribute to 4.4% of total PAHs and 5.0% of total n-alkanes on average. Highest average concentrations of PAHs and n-alkanes were found in the 10 and 100 m samples, reflecting the importance of contributions from local sources. Higher average concentrations in the 300 m samples compared to those in the 200 m samples may indicate contributions from long-range transport. The vertical profiles of source factors indicate the gasoline and road soil particle-associated PAHs, and the mixture from biogenic and fossil fuel source-associated n-alkanes were mostly from local emissions. The smaller average contribution of diesel-associated PAHs in the lower altitude samples also indicates that the restriction of diesel-fueled vehicle use in the central area of Tehran has been effective in reducing the PAHs concentration.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of cod nursery areas in the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinrichsen, H.-H.; von Dewitz, B.; Lehmann, A.; Bergström, U.; Hüssy, K.

2017-06-01

In this study the drift of eastern Baltic cod larvae and juveniles spawned within the historical eastern Baltic cod spawning grounds was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1971-2010, to examine the spatio-temporal dynamics of environmental suitability in the nursery areas of juvenile cod settlement. The results of the long-term model scenario runs, where juvenile cod were treated as simulated passively drifting particles, enabled us to find strong indications for long-term variations of settlement and potentially the reproduction success of the historically important eastern Baltic cod nursery grounds. Only low proportions of juveniles hatched in the Arkona Basin and in the Gotland Basin were able to settle in their respective spawning ground. Ocean currents were either unfavorable for the juveniles to reach suitable habitats or transported the juveniles to nursery grounds of neighboring subdivisions. Juveniles which hatched in the Bornholm Basin were most widely dispersed and showed the highest settlement probability, while the second highest settlement probability and horizontal dispersal was observed for juveniles originating from the Gdansk Deep. In a long-term perspective, wind-driven transport of larvae/juveniles positively affected the settlement success predominately in the Bornholm Basin and in the Bay of Gdansk. The Bornholm Basin has the potential to contribute on average 54% and the Bay of Gdansk 11% to the production of juveniles in the Baltic Sea. Furthermore, transport of juveniles surviving to the age of settlement with origin in the Bornholm Basin contributed on average 13 and 11% to the total settlement in the Arkona Basin and in the Gdansk Deep, respectively. The time-series of the simulated occupied juvenile cod habitat in the Bornholm Basin and in the Gdansk Deep showed a similar declining trend as the Fulton's K condition factor of demersal 1-group cod, which may confirm the importance of oxygen-dependent habitat availability and its effect on density dependence as a process relevant for recruitment success.

Long-Term Declining Trends in Historical Wind Measurements at the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, 1885-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, C.; Iacono, M. J.

2014-12-01

The Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory, located on the 635-foot summit of Great Blue Hill ten miles south of Boston, Massachusetts, has been the site of continuous monitoring of the local weather and climate since its founding in 1885. The meticulous, extensive and high-quality climate record maintained at this location has included the measurement of wind among many other parameters since its earliest days, and this provides a unique opportunity to examine wind speed trends at this site over nearly 130 years. Although multiple wind sensors have been in use during this time and the height of the anemometers was raised in 1908, the wind records have been made as consistent as possible through careful analysis of these changes and the application of adjustments to ensure consistency. The 30-year mean wind speed at this location has decreased from 6.8 m s-1 in the middle 20th century to its present value of 6.0 m s-1 with an increase in the rate of the decline beginning around 1980. The wind speed time series shows a significant (p < 0.05) downward trend over the entire period from 1885-2013 (-0.085 m s-1 decade-1) that is stronger and also significant for the sub-periods from 1961-2013 (-0.266 m s-1 decade-1) and 1979-2008 (-0.342 m s-1 decade-1). This declining trend persists in all seasons and has significant implications for the efficiency of wind power generation in the area, if it reflects a regional change in the near-surface wind regime. The wind instruments in use since the 19th century will be described, and the official long-term record will be compared with measurements from other wind sensors at the Observatory and surrounding locations. In addition, initial investigations of the possible causes of the wind speed decline will be presented in the context of global stilling (i.e. the theory of a widespread decline in measured near-surface wind speed), including an analysis of the wind speed change as a function of wind direction.

DEVELOMENT AND EVALUATION OF A MODEL FOR ESTIMATING LONG-TERM AVERAGE OZONE EXPOSURES TO CHILDREN

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term average exposures of school-age children can be modelled using longitudinal measurements collected during the Harvard Southern California Chronic Ozone Exposure Study over a 12-month period: June, 1995-May, 1996. The data base contains over 200 young children with perso...

Wind power application research on the fusion of the determination and ensemble prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lan, Shi; Lina, Xu; Yuzhu, Hao

2017-07-01

The fused product of wind speed for the wind farm is designed through the use of wind speed products of ensemble prediction from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and professional numerical model products on wind power based on Mesoscale Model5 (MM5) and Beijing Rapid Update Cycle (BJ-RUC), which are suitable for short-term wind power forecasting and electric dispatch. The single-valued forecast is formed by calculating the different ensemble statistics of the Bayesian probabilistic forecasting representing the uncertainty of ECMWF ensemble prediction. Using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to improve the time resolution of the single-valued forecast, and based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the deterministic numerical model prediction, the optimal wind speed forecasting curve and the confidence interval are provided. The result shows that the fusion forecast has made obvious improvement to the accuracy relative to the existing numerical forecasting products. Compared with the 0-24 h existing deterministic forecast in the validation period, the mean absolute error (MAE) is decreased by 24.3 % and the correlation coefficient (R) is increased by 12.5 %. In comparison with the ECMWF ensemble forecast, the MAE is reduced by 11.7 %, and R is increased 14.5 %. Additionally, MAE did not increase with the prolongation of the forecast ahead.

Simulated effects of crop rotations and residue management on wind erosion in Wuchuan, west-central Inner Mongolia, China.

PubMed

Wang, Erda; Harman, Wyatte L; Williams, Jimmy R; Xu, Cheng

2002-01-01

For decades, wind erosion has triggered dust and sand storms, buffeting Beijing and areas of northwestern China to the point of being hazardous to human health while rapidly eroding crop and livestock productivity. The EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) field-scale simulation model was used to assess long-term effects of improved crop rotations and crop residue management practices on wind erosion in Wuchuan County in Inner Mongolia. Simulation results indicate that preserving crop stalks until land is prepared by zone tillage for the next year's crop in lieu of using them as a source of heating fuel or livestock fodder significantly reduces wind erosion by 60%. At the same time, grain and potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) yields were maintained or improved. Significant reductions in erosion, 35 to 46%, also resulted from delaying stalk removal until late January through late April. Yearly wind erosion was concentrated in April and May, the windiest months. Additionally, the use of alternative crop rotations resulted in differences in wind erosion, largely due to a difference in residue stature and quality and differences in biomass produced. As a result, altering current crop rotation systems by expanding corn (Zea mays L.), wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), and millet [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] and reducing potato and pea (Pisum sativum L.) production significantly reduced simulated wind erosion, thus diminishing the severity of dust and sand storms in northwestern China. Saving and protecting topsoil over time will sustain land productivity and have long-term implications for improving conditions of rural poverty in the region.

The National Wind Erosion Research Network: Building a standardized long-term data resource for aeolian research, modeling and land management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Nicholas P.; Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Van Zee, Justin W; Courtright, Ericha M; Hugenholtz, Ted M; Zobeck, Ted M; Okin, Gregory S.; Barchyn, Thomas E; Billings, Benjamin J; Boyd, Robert A.; Clingan, Scott D; Cooper, Brad F; Duniway, Michael C.; Derner, Justin D.; Fox, Fred A; Havstad, Kris M.; Heilman, Philip; LaPlante, Valerie; Ludwig, Noel A; Metz, Loretta J; Nearing, Mark A; Norfleet, M Lee; Pierson, Frederick B; Sanderson, Matt A; Sharrat, Brenton S; Steiner, Jean L; Tatarko, John; Tedela, Negussie H; Todelo, David; Unnasch, Robert S; Van Pelt, R Scott; Wagner, Larry

2016-01-01

The National Wind Erosion Research Network was established in 2014 as a collaborative effort led by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service, and the United States Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management, to address the need for a long-term research program to meet critical challenges in wind erosion research and management in the United States. The Network has three aims: (1) provide data to support understanding of basic aeolian processes across land use types, land cover types, and management practices, (2) support development and application of models to assess wind erosion and dust emission and their impacts on human and environmental systems, and (3) encourage collaboration among the aeolian research community and resource managers for the transfer of wind erosion technologies. The Network currently consists of thirteen intensively instrumented sites providing measurements of aeolian sediment transport rates, meteorological conditions, and soil and vegetation properties that influence wind erosion. Network sites are located across rangelands, croplands, and deserts of the western US. In support of Network activities, http://winderosionnetwork.org was developed as a portal for information about the Network, providing site descriptions, measurement protocols, and data visualization tools to facilitate collaboration with scientists and managers interested in the Network and accessing Network products. The Network provides a mechanism for engaging national and international partners in a wind erosion research program that addresses the need for improved understanding and prediction of aeolian processes across complex and diverse land use types and management practices.

Long-term MODIS observations of cyanobacterial dynamics in Lake Taihu: Responses to nutrient enrichment and meteorological factors

PubMed Central

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhou, Yongqiang; Liu, Xiaohan; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Gao, Guang

2017-01-01

We developed and validated an empirical model for estimating chlorophyll a concentrations (Chla) in Lake Taihu to generate a long-term Chla and algal bloom area time series from MODIS-Aqua observations for 2003 to 2013. Then, based on the long-term time series data, we quantified the responses of cyanobacterial dynamics to nutrient enrichment and climatic conditions. Chla showed substantial spatial and temporal variability. In addition, the annual mean cyanobacterial surface bloom area exhibited an increasing trend across the entire lake from 2003 to 2013, with the exception of 2006 and 2007. High air temperature and phosphorus levels in the spring can prompt cyanobacterial growth, and low wind speeds and low atmospheric pressure levels favor cyanobacterial surface bloom formation. The sensitivity of cyanobacterial dynamics to climatic conditions was found to vary by region. Our results indicate that temperature is the most important factor controlling Chla inter-annual variability followed by phosphorus and that air pressure is the most important factor controlling cyanobacterial surface bloom formation followed by wind speeds in Lake Taihu. PMID:28074871

The stellar wind as a key to the understanding of the spectral activity of IN Com

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozlova, O. V.; Alekseev, I. Yu.

2014-06-01

We present long-term spectral observations ( R = 20000) of IN Com in the region of the Hα, Hβ, and He I 5876 lines. One distinguishing characteristic of the stellar spectrum is the presence in the Hα line of an extended two-component emission with limits up to ±400 km/s. Emission parameters show the rotation modulation with the stellar rotation period and a significant variability on the long-term scale. Similar emissions are also observed in the Hβ and He I 5876 lines. Our results allow us to conclude that observational emission profiles are formed in an optically thin hot gas. This is a result of the presence of a circumstellar gas disk around IN Com. Its size does not exceed several stellar radii. The material for the disk is supported by the stellar wind from IN Com. The detected variability of Hα-emission parameters shows a clear connection with the photopolarimetric activity of the star. This fact allows us to associate the long-term spectral variability with cycles of stellar activity of IN Com.

A Numerical Model Study of Nocturnal Drainage Flows with Strong Wind and Temperature Gradients.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamada, T.; Bunker, S.

1989-07-01

A second-moment turbulence-closure model described in Yamada and Bunker is used to simulate nocturnal drainage flows observed during the 1984 ASCOT field expedition in Brush Creek, Colorado. In order to simulate the observed strong wind directional shear and temperature gradients, two modifications are added to the model. The strong wind directional shear was maintained by introducing a `nudging' term in the equation of motion to guide the modeled winds in the layers above the ridge top toward the observed wind direction. The second modification was accomplished by reformulating the conservation equation for the potential temperature in such a way that only the deviation from the horizontally averaged value was prognostically computed.The vegetation distribution used in this study is undoubtedly crude. Nevertheless, the present simulation suggests that tall tree canopy can play an important role in producing inhomogeneous wind distribution, particularly in the levels below the canopy top.

Study on characteristics of chirp about Doppler wind lidar system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Li-fang; Yang, Guo-tao; Wang, Ji-hong; Yue, Chuan; Chen, Lin-xiang

2016-11-01

In the doppler wind lidar, usually every 4MHz frequency error will produce wind error of 1m/s of 532nm laser. In the Doppler lidar system, frequency stabilization was achieved through absorption of iodine molecules. Commands that control the instrumental system were based on the PID algorithm and coded using VB language. The frequency of the seed laser was locked to iodine molecular absorption line 1109 which is close to the upper edge of the absorption range, with long-time (>4h) frequency-locking accuracy being≤0.5MHz and long-time frequency stability being 10-9 . The experimental result indicated that the seed frequency and the pulse laser frequency have a deviation, which effect is called the laser chirp characteristics. Finally chirp test system was constructed and tested the frequency offset in time. And such frequency deviation is known as Chirp of the laser pulse. The real-time measured frequency difference of the continuous and pulsed lights was about 10MHz, long-time stability deviation was around 5MHz. After experimental testing technology mature, which can monitoring the signal at long-term with corrected the wind speed.

Wind Power Energy in Southern Brazil: evaluation using a mesoscale meteorological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krusche, Nisia; Stoevesandt, Bernhard; Chang, Chi-Yao; Peralta, Carlos

2015-04-01

In recent years, several wind farms were build in the coast of Rio Grande do Sul state. This region of Brazil was identified, in wind energy studies, as most favorable to the development of wind power energy, along with the Northeast part of the country. Site assessments of wind power, over long periods to estimate the power production and forecasts over short periods can be used for planning of power distribution and enhancements on Brazil's present capacity to use this resource. The computational power available today allows the simulation of the atmospheric flow in great detail. For instance, one of the authors participated in a research that demonstrated the interaction between the lake and maritime breeze in this region through the use of a atmospheric model. Therefore, we aim to evaluate simulations of wind conditions and its potential to generate energy in this region. The model applied is the Weather Research and Forecasting , which is the mesoscale weather forecast software. The calculation domain is centered in 32oS and 52oW, in the southern region of Rio Grande do Sul state. The initial conditions of the simulation are taken from the global weather forecast in the time period from October 1st to October 31st, 2006. The wind power potential was calculated for a generic turbine, with a blade length of 52 m, using the expression: P=1/2*d*A*Cp*v^3, where P is the wind power energy (in Watts), d is the density (equal to 1.23 kg/m^3), A is the area section, which is equal to 8500 m2 , and v is the intensity of the velocity. The evaluation was done for a turbine placed at 50 m and 150 m of height. A threshold was chosen for a turbine production of 1.5 MW to estimate the potential of the site. In contrast to northern Brazilian region, which has a rather constant wind condition, this region shows a great variation of power output due to the weather variability. During the period of the study, at least three frontal systems went over the region, and thre was a associated variation of wind intensity. The monthly average indicate several small regions with a higher value of energy. Average production higher than 1.5 MW, for the area inland, was of 72.9% for a turbine at 150 m height but only 13.1% for one at 50 m height. This initial study indicates the variability of the region in terms of wind power availability. It can be extended to the study of extreme situations, as the case of very strong winds that knocked down 8 wind turbines in this region on the 20 of December of 2014. Simulations with high degree of spacial details will be the next step in this investigation.

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Lantz, Eric; Ho, Jonathan

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented relymore » on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.« less

Continuity of Climate Data Records derived from Microwave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mears, C. A.; Wentz, F. J.; Brewer, M.; Meissner, T.; Ricciardulli, L.

2017-12-01

Remote Sensing Systems (www.remss.com) has been producing and distributing microwave climate data products from microwave imagers (SSMI, TMI, AMSR, WindSat, GMI, Aquarius, SMAP) over the global oceans since the launch of the first SSMI in 1987. Interest in these data products has been significant as researchers around the world have downloaded the approximate equivalent of 1 million satellite years of processed data. Users, including NASA, NOAA, US National Laboratories, US Navy, UK Met, ECMWF, JAXA, JMA, CMC, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as many hundreds of other agencies and universities routinely access these microwave data products. The quality of these data records has increased as more observations have become available and inter-calibration techniques have improved. The impending end of missions for WindSat, AMSR-2, and the remaining SSMIs will have significant impact on the quality and continuity of long term microwave climate data records. In addition to the problem of reduced numbers of observations, there is a real danger of losing overlapping observations. Simultaneous operation of satellites, especially when the observations are at similar local crossing times, provides a significant benefit in the effort to inter-calibrate satellites to yield accurate and stable long-term records. The end of WindSat and AMSR-2 will leave us without microwave SSTs in cold water, as there will be no microwave imagers with C-band channels. Microwave SSTs have a crucial advantage over IR SSTs, which is not able to measure SST in clouds or if aerosols are present. The gap in ocean wind vectors will be somewhat mitigated as the European ASCAT C-band scatterometer mission on MetOp is continuing. Nonetheless, the anticipated cease of several microwave satellite radiometers retrieving ocean winds in the coming years will lead to a significant gap in temporal coverage. Atmospheric water vapor, cloud liquid water, and rain rate are all important climate variables whose long-term records will inevitably degrade as the microwave imagery constellation fades.

Predicting Long-Term College Success through Degree Completion Using ACT[R] Composite Score, ACT Benchmarks, and High School Grade Point Average. ACT Research Report Series, 2012 (5)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Radunzel, Justine; Noble, Julie

2012-01-01

This study compared the effectiveness of ACT[R] Composite score and high school grade point average (HSGPA) for predicting long-term college success. Outcomes included annual progress towards a degree (based on cumulative credit-bearing hours earned), degree completion, and cumulative grade point average (GPA) at 150% of normal time to degree…

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Thermal Stratification and Vertical Mixing in a Shallow Fresh Water Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Yichen; Wang, Yongwei; Zhang, Zhen; Wang, Wei; Ren, Xia; Gao, Yaqi; Liu, Shoudong; Lee, Xuhui

2018-04-01

Among several influential factors, the geographical position and depth of a lake determine its thermal structure. In temperate zones, shallow lakes show significant differences in thermal stratification compared to deep lakes. Here, the variation in thermal stratification in Lake Taihu, a shallow fresh water lake, is studied systematically. Lake Taihu is a warm polymictic lake whose thermal stratification varies in short cycles of one day to a few days. The thermal stratification in Lake Taihu has shallow depths in the upper region and a large amplitude in the temperature gradient, the maximum of which exceeds 5°C m-1. The water temperature in the entire layer changes in a relatively consistent manner. Therefore, compared to a deep lake at similar latitude, the thermal stratification in Lake Taihu exhibits small seasonal differences, but the wide variation in the short term becomes important. Shallow polymictic lakes share the characteristic of diurnal mixing. Prominent differences on the duration and frequency of long-lasting thermal stratification are found in these lakes, which may result from the differences of local climate, lake depth, and fetch. A prominent response of thermal stratification to weather conditions is found, being controlled by the stratifying effect of solar radiation and the mixing effect of wind disturbance. Other than the diurnal stratification and convection, the representative responses of thermal stratification to these two factors with contrary effects are also discussed. When solar radiation increases, stronger wind is required to prevent the lake from becoming stratified. A daily average wind speed greater than 6 m s-1 can maintain the mixed state in Lake Taihu. Moreover, wind-induced convection is detected during thermal stratification. Due to lack of solar radiation, convection occurs more easily in nighttime than in daytime. Convection occurs frequently in fall and winter, whereas long-lasting and stable stratification causes less convection in summer.

Risk formulation for the sonic effects of offshore wind farms on fish in the EU region.

PubMed

Kikuchi, Ryunosuke

2010-02-01

In 2007, European leaders agreed to source 20% of their energy needs from renewable energy; since that time, offshore wind farms have been receiving attention in the European Union (EU). In 2008, the European Community submitted a proposal to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in order to combat marine noise pollution. In consideration of these facts, the present paper aims to deduce a preliminary hypothesis and its formulation for the effect of offshore wind farm noise on fish. The following general picture is drawn: the short-term potential impact during pre-construction; the short-term intensive impact during construction; and the physiological and/or masking effects that may occur over a long period while the wind farm is in operation. The EU's proposal to UNEP includes noise databases that list the origins of man-made sounds; it is advisable that offshore wind farms should be listed in the noise databases in order to promote rational environment management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Comparison of the Impacts of Wind Energy and Unconventional Gas Development on Land-use and Ecosystem Services: An Example from the Anadarko Basin of Oklahoma, USA.

PubMed

Davis, Kendall M; Nguyen, Michael N; McClung, Maureen R; Moran, Matthew D

2018-05-01

The United States energy industry is transforming with the rapid development of alternative energy sources and technological advancements in fossil fuels. Two major changes include the growth of wind turbines and unconventional oil and gas. We measured land-use impacts and associated ecosystem services costs of unconventional gas and wind energy development within the Anadarko Basin of the Oklahoma Woodford Shale, an area that has experienced large increases in both energy sectors. Unconventional gas wells developed three times as much land compared to wind turbines (on a per unit basis), resulting in higher ecosystem services costs for gas. Gas wells had higher impacts on intensive agricultural lands (i.e., row crops) compared to wind turbines that had higher impacts on natural grasslands/pastures. Because wind turbines produced on average less energy compared to gas wells, the average land-use-related ecosystem cost per gigajoule of energy produced was almost the same. Our results demonstrate that both unconventional gas and wind energy have substantial impacts on land use, which likely affect wildlife populations and land-use-related ecosystem services. Although wind energy does not have the associated greenhouse gas emissions, we suggest that the direct impacts on ecosystems in terms of land use are similar to unconventional fossil fuels. Considering the expected rapid global expansion of these two forms of energy production, many ecosystems are likely to be at risk.

Functional Abdominal Pain Patient Subtypes in Childhood Predict Functional Gastrointestinal Disorders with Chronic Pain and Psychiatric Comorbidities in Adolescence and Adulthood

PubMed Central

Walker, Lynn S.; Sherman, Amanda L.; Bruehl, Stephen; Garber, Judy; Smith, Craig A.

2012-01-01

Although pediatric functional abdominal pain (FAP) has been linked to abdominal pain later in life, childhood predictors of long-term outcomes have not been identified. This study evaluated whether distinct FAP profiles based on patterns of pain and adaptation in childhood could be identified and whether these profiles predicted differences in clinical outcomes and central sensitization (wind-up) on average 9 years later. In 843 pediatric FAP patients, cluster analysis was used to identify subgroups at initial FAP evaluation based on profiles of pain severity, gastrointestinal (GI) and non-GI symptoms, pain threat appraisal, pain coping efficacy, catastrophizing, negative affect, and activity impairment. Three profiles were identified: High Pain Dysfunctional, High Pain Adaptive, and Low Pain Adaptive. Logistic regression analyses controlling for age and sex showed that, compared to pediatric patients with the Low Pain Adaptive profile, those with the High Pain Dysfunctional profile were significantly more likely at long-term follow-up to meet criteria for pain-related functional gastrointestinal disorder (FGID) (OR: 3.45; CI: 1.95–6.11), FGID with comorbid non-abdominal chronic pain (OR: 2.6; CI:1.45–4.66), and FGID with comorbid anxiety or depressive psychiatric disorder (OR: 2.84; CI: 1.35–6.00). Pediatric patients with the High Pain Adaptive profile had baseline pain severity comparable to the High Pain Dysfunctional profile, but had outcomes as favorable as the Low Pain Adaptive profile. In laboratory pain testing at follow-up, High Pain Dysfunctional patients exhibited significantly greater thermal wind-up than Low Pain Adaptive patients, suggesting that a subgroup of FAP patients has outcomes consistent with widespread effects of heightened central sensitization. PMID:22721910

Tidal and tidally averaged circulation characteristics of Suisun Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Lawrence H.; Cheng, Ralph T.

1987-01-01

Availability of extensive field data permitted realistic calibration and validation of a hydrodynamic model of tidal circulation and salt transport for Suisun Bay, California. Suisun Bay is a partially mixed embayment of northern San Francisco Bay located just seaward of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The model employs a variant of an alternating direction implicit finite-difference method to solve the hydrodynamic equations and an Eulerian-Lagrangian method to solve the salt transport equation. An upwind formulation of the advective acceleration terms of the momentum equations was employed to avoid oscillations in the tidally averaged velocity field produced by central spatial differencing of these terms. Simulation results of tidal circulation and salt transport demonstrate that tides and the complex bathymetry determine the patterns of tidal velocities and that net changes in the salinity distribution over a few tidal cycles are small despite large changes during each tidal cycle. Computations of tidally averaged circulation suggest that baroclinic and wind effects are important influences on tidally averaged circulation during low freshwater-inflow conditions. Exclusion of baroclinic effects would lead to overestimation of freshwater inflow by several hundred m3/s for a fixed set of model boundary conditions. Likewise, exclusion of wind would cause an underestimation of flux rates between shoals and channels by 70–100%.

Real-time Kp predictions from ACE real time solar wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detman, Thomas; Joselyn, Joann

1999-06-01

The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft provides nearly continuous monitoring of solar wind plasma, magnetic fields, and energetic particles from the Sun-Earth L1 Lagrange point upstream of Earth in the solar wind. The Space Environment Center (SEC) in Boulder receives ACE telemetry from a group of international network of tracking stations. One-minute, and 1-hour averages of solar wind speed, density, temperature, and magnetic field components are posted on SEC's World Wide Web page within 3 to 5 minutes after they are measured. The ACE Real Time Solar Wind (RTSW) can be used to provide real-time warnings and short term forecasts of geomagnetic storms based on the (traditional) Kp index. Here, we use historical data to evaluate the performance of the first real-time Kp prediction algorithm to become operational.

Exploring the Biotic Pump Hypothesis along Non-linear Transects in Tropical South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, R.; Bettin, D. M.; Salazar, J. F.; Villegas, J. C.

2014-12-01

Forests might actively transport atmospheric moisture from the oceans, according to the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture (BiPAM) hypothesis. The BiPAM hypothesis appears to be supported by the fact that precipitation drops exponentially with distance from ocean along non-forested land transects, but not on their forested counterparts. Yet researchers have discussed the difficulty in defining proper transects for BiPAM studies. Previous studies calculate precipitation gradients either along linear transects maximizing distance to the ocean, or along polylines following specific atmospheric pathways (e.g., aerial rivers). In this study we analyzed precipitation gradients along curvilinear streamlines of wind in tropical South America. Wind streamlines were computed using long-term quarterly averages of meridional and zonal wind components from the ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Total precipitation along streamlines was obtained from four data sources: TRMM, UDEL, ERA-Interim, and NCEP/NCAR. Precipitation on land versus distance from the ocean was analyzed along selected streamlines for each data source. As predicted by BiPAM, precipitation gradients did not decrease exponentially along streamlines in the vicinity of the Amazon forest, but dropped rapidly as distance from the forest increased. Remarkably, precipitation along streamlines in some areas outside the Amazon forest did not decrease exponentially either. This was possibly owing to convergence of moisture conveyed by low level jets (LLJs) in those areas (e.g., streamlines driven by the Caribbean and CHOCO jets on the Pacific coast of Colombia). Significantly, BiPAM held true even along long transects displaying strong sinuosity. In fact, the general conclusions of previous studies remain valid. Yet effects of LLJs on precipitation gradients need to be thoroughly considered in future BiPAM studies.

Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mengelkamp, H.-T.; Bendel, D.

2010-09-01

Use of meteorological information in the risk analysis of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio H.-T. Mengelkamp*,** , D. Bendel** *GKSS Research Center Geesthacht GmbH **anemos Gesellschaft für Umweltmeteorologie mbH The renewable energy industry has rapidly developed during the last two decades and so have the needs for high quality comprehensive meteorological services. It is, however, only recently that international financial institutions bundle wind farms and solar power plants and offer shares in these aggregate portfolios. The monetary value of a mixed wind farm and solar power plant portfolio is determined by legal and technical aspects, the expected annual energy production of each wind farm and solar power plant and the associated uncertainty of the energy yield estimation or the investment risk. Building an aggregate portfolio will reduce the overall uncertainty through diversification in contrast to the single wind farm/solar power plant energy yield uncertainty. This is similar to equity funds based on a variety of companies or products. Meteorological aspects contribute to the diversification in various ways. There is the uncertainty in the estimation of the expected long-term mean energy production of the wind and solar power plants. Different components of uncertainty have to be considered depending on whether the power plant is already in operation or in the planning phase. The uncertainty related to a wind farm in the planning phase comprises the methodology of the wind potential estimation and the uncertainty of the site specific wind turbine power curve as well as the uncertainty of the wind farm effect calculation. The uncertainty related to a solar power plant in the pre-operational phase comprises the uncertainty of the radiation data base and that of the performance curve. The long-term mean annual energy yield of operational wind farms and solar power plants is estimated on the basis of the actual energy production and it's relation to a climatologically stable long-term reference period. These components of uncertainty are of technical nature and based on subjective estimations rather than on a statistically sound data analysis. And then there is the temporal and spatial variability of the wind speed and radiation. Their influence on the overall risk is determined by the regional distribution of the power plants. These uncertainty components are calculated on the basis of wind speed observations and simulations and satellite derived radiation data. The respective volatility (temporal variability) is calculated from the site specific time series and the influence on the portfolio through regional correlation. For an exemplary portfolio comprising fourteen wind farms and eight solar power plants the annual mean energy production to be expected is calculated, the different components of uncertainty are estimated for each single wind farm and solar power plant and for the portfolio as a whole. The reduction in uncertainty (or risk) through bundling the wind farms and the solar power plants (the portfolio effect) is calculated by Markowitz' Modern Portfolio Theory. This theory is applied separately for the wind farm and the solar power plant bundle and for the combination of both. The combination of wind and photovoltaic assets clearly shows potential for a risk reduction. Even assets with a comparably low expected return can lead to a significant risk reduction depending on their individual characteristics.

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, R.; Ingraham, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Starr, D.; Terry, J.

1998-01-01

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Autocorrelation Study of Solar Wind Plasma and IMF Properties as Measured by the MAVEN Spacecraft

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquette, Melissa L.; Lillis, Robert J.; Halekas, J. S.; Luhmann, J. G.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Espley, J. R.

2018-04-01

It has long been a goal of the heliophysics community to understand solar wind variability at heliocentric distances other than 1 AU, especially at ˜1.5 AU due to not only the steepening of solar wind stream interactions outside 1 AU but also the number of missions available there to measure it. In this study, we use 35 months of solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) data taken at Mars by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft to conduct an autocorrelation analysis of the solar wind speed, density, and dynamic pressure, which is derived from the speed and density, as well as the IMF strength and orientation. We found that the solar wind speed is coherent, that is, has an autocorrelation coefficient above 1/e, over roughly 56 hr, while the density and pressure are coherent over smaller intervals of roughly 25 and 20 hr, respectively, and that the IMF strength is coherent over time intervals of approximately 20 hr, while the cone and clock angles are considerably less steady but still somewhat coherent up to time lags of roughly 16 hr. We also found that when the speed, density, pressure, or IMF strength is higher than average, the solar wind or IMF becomes uncorrelated more quickly, while when they are below average, it tends to be steadier. This analysis allows us to make estimates of the values of solar wind plasma and IMF parameters when they are not directly measured and provide an approximation of the error associated with that estimate.

The Spectrum of Wind Power Fluctuations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandi, Mahesh

2016-11-01

Wind is a variable energy source whose fluctuations threaten electrical grid stability and complicate dynamical load balancing. The power generated by a wind turbine fluctuates due to the variable wind speed that blows past the turbine. Indeed, the spectrum of wind power fluctuations is widely believed to reflect the Kolmogorov spectrum; both vary with frequency f as f - 5 / 3. This variability decreases when aggregate power fluctuations from geographically distributed wind farms are averaged at the grid via a mechanism known as geographic smoothing. Neither the f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum nor the mechanism of geographic smoothing are understood. In this work, we explain the wind power fluctuation spectrum from the turbine through grid scales. The f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum results from the largest length scales of atmospheric turbulence of order 200 km influencing the small scales where individual turbines operate. This long-range influence spatially couples geographically distributed wind farms and synchronizes farm outputs over a range of frequencies and decreases with increasing inter-farm distance. Consequently, aggregate grid-scale power fluctuations remain correlated, and are smoothed until they reach a limiting f - 7 / 3 spectrum. This work was funded by the Collective Interactions Unit, OIST Graduate University, Japan.

Earth aeolian wind streaks: Comparison to wind data from model and stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen-Zada, A. L.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

2017-05-01

Wind streak is a collective term for a variety of aeolian features that display distinctive albedo surface patterns. Wind streaks have been used to map near-surface winds and to estimate atmospheric circulation patterns on Mars and Venus. However, because wind streaks have been studied mostly on Mars and Venus, much of the knowledge regarding the mechanism and time frame of their formation and their relationship to the atmospheric circulation cannot be verified. This study aims to validate previous studies' results by a comparison of real and modeled wind data with wind streak orientations as measured from remote-sensing images. Orientations of Earth wind streaks were statistically correlated to resultant drift direction (RDD) values calculated from reanalysis and wind data from 621 weather stations. The results showed good agreement between wind streak orientations and reanalysis RDD (r = 0.78). A moderate correlation was found between the wind streak orientations and the weather station data (r = 0.47); a similar trend was revealed on a regional scale when the analysis was performed by continent, with r ranging from 0.641 in North America to 0.922 in Antarctica. At sites where wind streak orientations did not correspond to the RDDs (i.e., a difference of 45°), seasonal and diurnal variations in the wind flow were found to be responsible for deviation from the global pattern. The study thus confirms that Earth wind streaks were formed by the present wind regime and they are indeed indicative of the long-term prevailing wind direction on global and regional scales.

Averaging interval selection for the calculation of Reynolds shear stress for studies of boundary layer turbulence.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Zoe; Baas, Andreas

2013-04-01

It is widely recognised that boundary layer turbulence plays an important role in sediment transport dynamics in aeolian environments. Improvements in the design and affordability of ultrasonic anemometers have provided significant contributions to studies of aeolian turbulence, by facilitating high frequency monitoring of three dimensional wind velocities. Consequently, research has moved beyond studies of mean airflow properties, to investigations into quasi-instantaneous turbulent fluctuations at high spatio-temporal scales. To fully understand, how temporal fluctuations in shear stress drive wind erosivity and sediment transport, research into the best practice for calculating shear stress is necessary. This paper builds upon work published by Lee and Baas (2012) on the influence of streamline correction techniques on Reynolds shear stress, by investigating the time-averaging interval used in the calculation. Concerns relating to the selection of appropriate averaging intervals for turbulence research, where the data are typically non-stationary at all timescales, are well documented in the literature (e.g. Treviño and Andreas, 2000). For example, Finnigan et al. (2003) found that underestimating the required averaging interval can lead to a reduction in the calculated momentum flux, as contributions from turbulent eddies longer than the averaging interval are lost. To avoid the risk of underestimating fluxes, researchers have typically used the total measurement duration as a single averaging period. For non-stationary data, however, using the whole measurement run as a single block average is inadequate for defining turbulent fluctuations. The data presented in this paper were collected in a field study of boundary layer turbulence conducted at Tramore beach near Rosapenna, County Donegal, Ireland. High-frequency (50 Hz) 3D wind velocity measurements were collected using ultrasonic anemometry at thirteen different heights between 0.11 and 1.62 metres above the bed. A technique for determining time-averaging intervals for a series of anemometers stacked in a close vertical array is presented. A minimum timescale is identified using spectral analysis to determine the inertial sub-range, where energy is neither produced nor dissipated but passed down to increasingly smaller scales. An autocorrelation function is then used to derive a scaling pattern between anemometer heights, which defines a series of averaging intervals of increasing length with height above the surface. Results demonstrate the effect of different averaging intervals on the calculation of Reynolds shear stress and highlight the inadequacy of using the total measurement duration as a single block average. Lee, Z. S. & Baas, A. C. W. (2012). Streamline correction for the analysis of boundary layer turbulence. Geomorphology, 171-172, 69-82. Treviño, G. and Andreas, E.L., 2000. Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 95(2): 231-247. Finnigan, J.J., Clement, R., Malhi, Y., Leuning, R. and Cleugh, H.A., 2003. Re-evaluation of long-term flux measurement techniques. Part I: Averaging and coordinate rotation. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 107(1): 1-48.

Variability of ionospheric TEC during solar and geomagnetic minima (2008 and 2009): external high speed stream drivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verkhoglyadova, O. P.; Tsurutani, B. T.; Mannucci, A. J.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Hunt, L. A.; Runge, T.

2013-02-01

We study solar wind-ionosphere coupling through the late declining phase/solar minimum and geomagnetic minimum phases during the last solar cycle (SC23) - 2008 and 2009. This interval was characterized by sequences of high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs). The concomitant geomagnetic response was moderate geomagnetic storms and high-intensity, long-duration continuous auroral activity (HILDCAA) events. The JPL Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) software and the GPS total electron content (TEC) database were used to calculate the vertical TEC (VTEC) and estimate daily averaged values in separate latitude and local time ranges. Our results show distinct low- and mid-latitude VTEC responses to HSSs during this interval, with the low-latitude daytime daily averaged values increasing by up to 33 TECU (annual average of ~20 TECU) near local noon (12:00 to 14:00 LT) in 2008. In 2009 during the minimum geomagnetic activity (MGA) interval, the response to HSSs was a maximum of ~30 TECU increases with a slightly lower average value than in 2008. There was a weak nighttime ionospheric response to the HSSs. A well-studied solar cycle declining phase interval, 10-22 October 2003, was analyzed for comparative purposes, with daytime low-latitude VTEC peak values of up to ~58 TECU (event average of ~55 TECU). The ionospheric VTEC changes during 2008-2009 were similar but ~60% less intense on average. There is an evidence of correlations of filtered daily averaged VTEC data with Ap index and solar wind speed. We use the infrared NO and CO2 emission data obtained with SABER on TIMED as a proxy for the radiation balance of the thermosphere. It is shown that infrared emissions increase during HSS events possibly due to increased energy input into the auroral region associated with HILDCAAs. The 2008-2009 HSS intervals were ~85% less intense than the 2003 early declining phase event, with annual averages of daily infrared NO emission power of ~ 3.3 × 1010 W and 2.7 × 1010 W in 2008 and 2009, respectively. The roles of disturbance dynamos caused by high-latitude winds (due to particle precipitation and Joule heating in the auroral zones) and of prompt penetrating electric fields (PPEFs) in the solar wind-ionosphere coupling during these intervals are discussed. A correlation between geoeffective interplanetary electric field components and HSS intervals is shown. Both PPEF and disturbance dynamo mechanisms could play important roles in solar wind-ionosphere coupling during prolonged (up to days) external driving within HILDCAA intervals.

Interplanetary magnetic flux - Measurement and balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mccomas, D. J.; Gosling, J. T.; Phillips, J. L.

1992-01-01

A new method for determining the approximate amount of magnetic flux in various solar wind structures in the ecliptic (and solar rotation) plane is developed using single-spacecraft measurements in interplanetary space and making certain simplifying assumptions. The method removes the effect of solar wind velocity variations and can be applied to specific, limited-extent solar wind structures as well as to long-term variations. Over the 18-month interval studied, the ecliptic plane flux of coronal mass ejections was determined to be about 4 times greater than that of HFDs.

26 CFR 5c.1305-1 - Special income averaging rules for taxpayers otherwise required to compute tax in accordance with...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... subject to section 1256(a). Of that total, 40 percent is short term capital gain ($375,000) and 60 percent is long term capital gain ($562,500). Of the long term capital gain, 40 percent is taxable ($225,000... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY TAX ACT OF 1981 § 5c.1305-1 Special income averaging...

26 CFR 5c.1305-1 - Special income averaging rules for taxpayers otherwise required to compute tax in accordance with...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... subject to section 1256(a). Of that total, 40 percent is short term capital gain ($375,000) and 60 percent is long term capital gain ($562,500). Of the long term capital gain, 40 percent is taxable ($225,000... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY TAX ACT OF 1981 § 5c.1305-1 Special income averaging...

26 CFR 5c.1305-1 - Special income averaging rules for taxpayers otherwise required to compute tax in accordance with...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... subject to section 1256(a). Of that total, 40 percent is short term capital gain ($375,000) and 60 percent is long term capital gain ($562,500). Of the long term capital gain, 40 percent is taxable ($225,000... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY TAX ACT OF 1981 § 5c.1305-1 Special income averaging...

26 CFR 5c.1305-1 - Special income averaging rules for taxpayers otherwise required to compute tax in accordance with...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... subject to section 1256(a). Of that total, 40 percent is short term capital gain ($375,000) and 60 percent is long term capital gain ($562,500). Of the long term capital gain, 40 percent is taxable ($225,000... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY TAX ACT OF 1981 § 5c.1305-1 Special income averaging...

26 CFR 5c.1305-1 - Special income averaging rules for taxpayers otherwise required to compute tax in accordance with...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... subject to section 1256(a). Of that total, 40 percent is short term capital gain ($375,000) and 60 percent is long term capital gain ($562,500). Of the long term capital gain, 40 percent is taxable ($225,000... INCOME TAX REGULATIONS UNDER THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY TAX ACT OF 1981 § 5c.1305-1 Special income averaging...

Wind data mining by Kohonen Neural Networks.

PubMed

Fayos, José; Fayos, Carolina

2007-02-14

Time series of Circulation Weather Type (CWT), including daily averaged wind direction and vorticity, are self-classified by similarity using Kohonen Neural Networks (KNN). It is shown that KNN is able to map by similarity all 7300 five-day CWT sequences during the period of 1975-94, in London, United Kingdom. It gives, as a first result, the most probable wind sequences preceding each one of the 27 CWT Lamb classes in that period. Inversely, as a second result, the observed diffuse correlation between both five-day CWT sequences and the CWT of the 6(th) day, in the long 20-year period, can be generalized to predict the last from the previous CWT sequence in a different test period, like 1995, as both time series are similar. Although the average prediction error is comparable to that obtained by forecasting standard methods, the KNN approach gives complementary results, as they depend only on an objective classification of observed CWT data, without any model assumption. The 27 CWT of the Lamb Catalogue were coded with binary three-dimensional vectors, pointing to faces, edges and vertex of a "wind-cube," so that similar CWT vectors were close.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fields, Jason; Tinnesand, Heidi; Baring-Gould, Ian

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Office (WWPTO) goals, researchers from DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) are investigating the Distributed Wind Resource Assessment (DWRA) process, which includes pre-construction energy estimation as well as turbine site suitability assessment. DWRA can have a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annualmore » energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that will help the distributed wind industry follow a similar trajectory to the low-wind-speed designs in the utility-scale industry sector. By understanding the wind resource better, the industry could install larger rotors, capture more energy, and as a result, increase deployment while lowering the LCOE. a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annual energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that will help the distributed wind industry follow a similar trajectory to the low-wind-speed designs in the utility-scale industry sector. By understanding the wind resource better, the industry could install larger rotors, capture more energy, and as a result, increase deployment while lowering the LCOE.« less

On the Long-Term Variability of Jupiter's Winds and Brightness as Observed from Hubble

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon-Miller, Amy A.; Gierasch, Peter J.

2010-01-01

Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 imaging data of Jupiter were combined with wind profiles from Voyager and Cassini data to study long-term variability in Jupiter's winds and cloud brightness. Searches for evidence of wind velocity periodicity yielded a few latitudes with potential variability; the most significant periods were found nearly symmetrically about the equator at 0 deg., 10-12 deg. N, and 14-18 deg. S planetographic latitude. The low to mid-latitude signals have components consistent with the measured stratospheric temperature Quasi-Quadrennial Oscillation (QQO) period of-5 years, while the equatorial signal is approximately seasonal and could be tied to mesoscale wave formation, robustness tests indicate that a constant or continuously varying periodic signal near 4.5 years would appear with high significance in the data periodograms as long as uncertainties or noise in the data are not of greater magnitude. However, the lack of a consistent signal over many latitudes makes it difficult to interpret as a QQO-related change. In addition, further analyses of calibrated 410-nm and 953-nm brightness scans found few corresponding changes in troposphere haze and cloud structure on QQO timescales. However, stratospheric haze reflectance at 255-nm did appear to vary on seasonal timescales, though the data do not have enough temporal coverage or photometric accuracy to be conclusive. Sufficient temporal coverage and spacing, as well as data quality, are critical to this type of search.

Understanding the Rising Phase of the PM2.5 Concentration Evolution in Large China Cities

PubMed Central

Lv, Baolei; Cai, Jun; Xu, Bing; Bai, Yuqi

2017-01-01

Long-term air quality observations are seldom analyzed from a dynamic view. This study analyzed fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution processes using long-term PM2.5 observations in three Chinese cities. Pollution processes were defined as linearly growing PM2.5 concentrations following the criteria of coefficient of determination R2 > 0.8 and duration time T ≥ 18 hrs. The linear slopes quantitatively measured pollution levels by PM2.5 concentrations rising rates (PMRR, μg/(m3·hr)). The 741, 210 and 193 pollution processes were filtered out, respectively, in Beijing (BJ), Shanghai (SH), and Guangzhou (GZ). Then the relationships between PMRR and wind speed, wind direction, 24-hr backward points, gaseous pollutants (CO, NO2 and SO2) concentrations, and regional PM2.5 levels were studied. Inverse relationships existed between PMRR and wind speed. The wind directions and 24-hr backward points converged in specific directions indicating long-range transport. Gaseous pollutants concentrations increased at variable rates in the three cities with growing PMRR values. PM2.5 levels at the upwind regions of BJ and SH increased at high PMRRs. Regional transport dominated the PM2.5 pollution processes of SH. In BJ, both local contributions and regional transport increased during high-PMRR pollution processes. In GZ, PM2.5 pollution processes were mainly caused by local emissions. PMID:28440282

Super-long bridges with floating towers: the role of multi-box decks and Hardware-In-the-Loop technology for wind tunnel tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zasso, A.; Argentini, T.; Bayati, I.; Belloli, M.; Rocchi, D.

2017-12-01

The super long fjord crossings in E39 Norwegian project pose new challenges to long span bridge design and construction technology. Proposed solutions should consider the adoption of bridge deck with super long spans or floating solutions for at least one of the towers, due to the relevant fjord depth. At the same time, the exposed fjord environment, possibly facing the open ocean, calls for higher aerodynamic stability performances. In relation to this scenario, the present paper addresses two topics: 1) the aerodynamic advantages of multi-box deck sections in terms of aeroelastic stability, and 2) an experimental setup in a wind tunnel able to simulate the aeroelastic bridge response including the wave forcing on the floating.

Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

2013-12-01

The long and extended warm and dry summers, the low rate of rain and humidity are the main factors that explain the increase of electricity consumption in hot arid regions. In such regions, the ventilating and air-conditioning installations, that are typically the most energy-intensive among energy consumption activities, are essential for securing healthy, safe and suitable indoor thermal conditions for building occupants and stored materials. The use of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind represents one of the most relevant solutions to overcome the increase of the electricity demand challenge. In the recent years, wind energy is gaining more importance among the researchers worldwide. Wind energy is intermittent in nature and hence the power system scheduling and dynamic control of wind turbine requires an estimate of wind energy. Accurate forecast of wind speed is a challenging task for the wind energy research field. In fact, due to the large variability of wind speed caused by the unpredictable and dynamic nature of the earth's atmosphere, there are many fluctuations in wind power production. This inherent variability of wind speed is the main cause of the uncertainty observed in wind power generation. Furthermore, producing wind power forecasts might be obtained indirectly by modeling the wind speed series and then transforming the forecasts through a power curve. Wind speed forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently and several models have been developed. Basically two main approaches have been proposed in the literature: (1) physical models such as Numerical Weather Forecast and (2) statistical models such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Neural Networks. While the initial focus in the literature has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. In short term context, probabilistic forecasts might be more relevant than point forecasts for the planner to build scenarios In this paper, we are interested in estimating predictive intervals of the hourly wind speed measures in few cities in United Arab emirates (UAE). More precisely, given a wind speed time series, our target is to forecast the wind speed at any specific hour during the day and provide in addition an interval with the coverage probability 0

The Cost-Optimal Distribution of Wind and Solar Generation Facilities in a Simplified Highly Renewable European Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kies, Alexander; von Bremen, Lüder; Schyska, Bruno; Chattopadhyay, Kabitri; Lorenz, Elke; Heinemann, Detlev

2016-04-01

The transition of the European power system from fossil generation towards renewable sources is driven by different reasons like decarbonisation and sustainability. Renewable power sources like wind and solar have, due to their weather dependency, fluctuating feed-in profiles, which make their system integration a difficult task. To overcome this issue, several solutions have been investigated in the past like the optimal mix of wind and PV [1], the extension of the transmission grid or storages [2]. In this work, the optimal distribution of wind turbines and solar modules in Europe is investigated. For this purpose, feed-in data with an hourly temporal resolution and a spatial resolution of 7 km covering Europe for the renewable sources wind, photovoltaics and hydro was used. Together with historical load data and a transmission model , a simplified pan-European power power system was simulated. Under cost assumptions of [3] the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for this simplified system consisting of generation, consumption, transmission and backup units is calculated. With respect to the LCOE, the optimal distribution of generation facilities in Europe is derived. It is shown, that by optimal placement of renewable generation facilities the LCOE can be reduced by more than 10% compared to a meta study scenario [4] and a self-sufficient scenario (every country produces on average as much from renewable sources as it consumes). This is mainly caused by a shift of generation facilities towards highly suitable locations, reduced backup and increased transmission need. The results of the optimization will be shown and implications for the extension of renewable shares in the European power mix will be discussed. The work is part of the RESTORE 2050 project (Wuppertal Institute, Next Energy, University of Oldenburg), that is financed by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, Fkz. 03SFF0439A). [1] Kies, A. et al.: Kies, Alexander, et al. "Investigation of balancing effects in long term renewable energy feed-in with respect to the transmission grid." Advances in Science and Research 12.1 (2015): 91-95, doi:10.5194/asr-12-91-2015 [2] Heide, Dominik, et al. "Reduced storage and balancing needs in a fully renewable European power system with excess wind and solar power generation." Renewable Energy 36.9 (2011): 2515-2523 [3] Rodriguez, R.A.: Weather-driven power transmission in a highly renewable European electricity network, PhD Thesis, Aarhus University, November 2014 [4] Pfluger, B. et al.: Tangible ways towards climate protection in the European Union (EU long-term scenarios 2050), Fraunhofer ISI, Karlsruhe, September 2011

On the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Garcia-Melendo, E.; Hueso, R.; Barrado-Izagirre, N.; Legarreta, J.; Rojas, J. F.

2012-12-01

We present an analysis of the long-term variability of Jupiter and Saturn zonal wind profiles at their upper cloud level as retrieved from cloud motion tracking on images obtained at ground-based observatories and with different spacecraft missions since 1979, encompassing about three Jovian and one Saturn years. We study the sensitivity and variability of the zonal wind profile in both planets to major planetary-scale disturbances and to seasonal forcing. We finally discuss the implications that these results have for current model efforts to explain the global tropospheric circulation in these planets. Acknowledgements: This work has been funded by Spanish MICIIN AYA2009-10701 with FEDER support, Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07 and UPV/EHU UFI11/55. [1] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Icarus, 147, 405-420 (2000). [2] García-Melendo E., Sánchez LavegaA., Icarus, 152, 316-330 (2001) [3] Sánchez-Lavega A., et al., Nature, 423, 623-625 (2003). [4] García-Melendo E., et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L22204 (2010).

7 CFR 12.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

...— (1) Reduce soil loss due to wind and water erosion; (2) Protect the Nation's long-term capability to produce food and fiber; (3) Reduce sedimentation and improve water quality; and (4) Assist in preserving...

7 CFR 12.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

...— (1) Reduce soil loss due to wind and water erosion; (2) Protect the Nation's long-term capability to produce food and fiber; (3) Reduce sedimentation and improve water quality; and (4) Assist in preserving...

Analytical expressions for maximum wind turbine average power in a Rayleigh wind regime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carlin, P.W.

Average or expectation values for annual power of a wind turbine in a Rayleigh wind regime are calculated and plotted as a function of cut-out wind speed. This wind speed is expressed in multiples of the annual average wind speed at the turbine installation site. To provide a common basis for comparison of all real and imagined turbines, the Rayleigh-Betz wind machine is postulated. This machine is an ideal wind machine operating with the ideal Betz power coefficient of 0.593 in a Rayleigh probability wind regime. All other average annual powers are expressed in fractions of that power. Cases consideredmore » include: (1) an ideal machine with finite power and finite cutout speed, (2) real machines operating in variable speed mode at their maximum power coefficient, and (3) real machines operating at constant speed.« less

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime nonprecipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land surface forcing and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes early morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally varying sensible and latent heat fluxes, which represent a domain average over different land surface types; simplified large-scalemore » horizontal advective tendencies and subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well reproduced by LES; however, the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 m. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity, and updraft mass flux. Both observations and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime non-precipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land-surface forcing, and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes: early-morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally-varying sensible and latent heat fluxes which represent a domain average over different land-surface types; simplified large-scale horizontal advective tendencies andmore » subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well-reproduced by LES, however the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 meters. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity and updraft mass flux. Finally, both observation and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Large-Eddy Simulation of Shallow Cumulus over Land: A Composite Case Based on ARM Long-Term Observations at Its Southern Great Plains Site

DOE PAGES

Zhang, Yunyan; Klein, Stephen A.; Fan, Jiwen; ...

2017-09-19

Based on long-term observations by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program at its Southern Great Plains site, a new composite case of continental shallow cumulus (ShCu) convection is constructed for large-eddy simulations (LES) and single-column models. The case represents a typical daytime non-precipitating ShCu whose formation and dissipation are driven by the local atmospheric conditions and land-surface forcing, and are not influenced by synoptic weather events. The case includes: early-morning initial profiles of temperature and moisture with a residual layer; diurnally-varying sensible and latent heat fluxes which represent a domain average over different land-surface types; simplified large-scale horizontal advective tendencies andmore » subsidence; and horizontal winds with prevailing direction and average speed. Observed composite cloud statistics are provided for model evaluation. The observed diurnal cycle is well-reproduced by LES, however the cloud amount, liquid water path, and shortwave radiative effect are generally underestimated. LES are compared between simulations with an all-or-nothing bulk microphysics and a spectral bin microphysics. The latter shows improved agreement with observations in the total cloud cover and the amount of clouds with depths greater than 300 meters. When compared with radar retrievals of in-cloud air motion, LES produce comparable downdraft vertical velocities, but a larger updraft area, velocity and updraft mass flux. Finally, both observation and LES show a significantly larger in-cloud downdraft fraction and downdraft mass flux than marine ShCu.« less

Multiple nuclide cosmogenic dating of very old desert pavements on the Puna Plateau, Northwest Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dortch, J.; Schoenbohm, L. M.

2011-12-01

Wind erosion of bedrock has been suggested to be responsible for the removal of more than 800 m of strata in the Qaidam Basin while wind deposition creates large-scale landforms such as the loess plateau. Wind eroded landforms, such as desert pavements in the Namibian Desert, Africa, form relic landscapes that are stable for more than 5 Ma. Desert pavements are of particular importance because of their widespread occurrence on terraces and fans, in mountains and coastal areas, and in hot and cold deserts including: Southwestern Africa, Antartic Dry valleys, Southwest USA, Denmark, Ireland, Israel, Sweden, and Central Tibet. Moreover, greater than 95 % of ventifacts on desert pavements are suspected to be late Quaternary to Holocene in age and are located on surfaces suitable for cosmogenic radionuclide dating. In spite of this, glacial, fluvial, and mass wasting systems have received far more attention than wind as an important geomorphic agent of erosion, deposition, and rock mass redistribution. Our goal is to: 1) quantify bedrock wind erosion rates; 2) quantify the ages of old, stable desert pavements; 3) and to identify which lithology-isotope pair provides the most accurate exposure ages for desert pavements in arid landscapes. The Puna Plateau, Argentina, is an ideal area to undertake this study because numerous wind eroded/deposited landforms are present, rates of fluvial erosion are low, and glaciation is limited. Mapping using remote sensed images shows that a significant portion of the Puna Plateau surface is covered by wind eroded or wind deposited landforms. These landforms align with the dominant wind direction (southeast) determined from ~450 ventifact measurements from 9 locations on the plateau. Twelve amalgamated samples sets that span six lithologies (granite, gneiss, quartzite, rhyolite, diabase, and basalt) using four cosmogenic isotopes (10Be, 26Al, 36Cl, 3He) on ventifacted clasts were collected from two surfaces to identify the most appropriate lithologies and cosmogenic isotopes for obtaining an accurate chronology of desert pavements. Moreover, 3He dating of six in situ samples from basalt flows with independent 39Ar/40Ar ages will begin to address long-term time-averaged wind erosion rates of bedrock while enabling wind-erosion rate corrections for pavement ventifacts. Our results and methodology can be applied worldwide and will aid future research in the many environments where ventifacts and/or high wind erosion rates are found.

Long-term moderate wind induced sediment resuspension meeting phosphorus demand of phytoplankton in the large shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu.

PubMed

Chao, Jian-Ying; Zhang, Yi-Min; Kong, Ming; Zhuang, Wei; Wang, Long-Mian; Shao, Ke-Qiang; Gao, Guang

2017-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of sediment resuspension and phosphorus (P) release on phytoplankton growth under different kinds of wind-wave disturbance conditions in the large and shallow eutrophic Lake Taihu in China. Short-term strong wind (STSW) conditions, long-term moderate wind (LTMW) conditions, and static/calm conditions were investigated. To address this objective, we (1) monitored changes in surface water P composition during field-based sediment resuspension caused by STSW conditions in Lake Taihu, and also conducted (2) a series of laboratory-based sediment resuspension experiments to simulate LTMW and calm conditions. The results showed that under both strong and moderate wind-wave conditions, suspended solids (SS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the water column increased significantly, but total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) remained low throughout the experiments, indicating that the P released from sediments mainly existed in particulate forms. In STSW conditions, alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) and enzymatically hydrolysable phosphorus (EHP) increased rapidly, with the peak value occurring following the peak value of wind speed for 1-2 days, and then rapidly decreased after the wind stopped. Under LTMW conditions, APA and EHP increased steadily, and by the end of the laboratory experiments, APA increased by 11 times and EHP increased by 5 times. Chlorophyll a (Chl-a) in LTMW conditions increased significantly, but remained low under STSW conditions, demonstrating that the former type of sediment P release promoted phytoplankton growth more effectively, and the latter type did not. Despite the fact that STSW conditions resulted in the release of more TP, TP settled to the bottom rapidly with SS after the wind stopped, and did not promote algal growth. Under LTMW conditions, suspended particulate P was hydrolyzed to SRP by phosphatase and promoted algae growth. Algal growth in turn secreted more phosphatase and accelerated particulate P regeneration, which may be the main mechanism of sediment bio-available P release that promotes phytoplankton growth in shallow lakes.

Nutrient loading to Lewisville Lake, north-central Texas, 1984-87

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gain, W.S.; Baldys, Stanley

1995-01-01

The estimated long-term (1974-89 water years) average annual total nitrogen load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 11,800 pounds per day. The estimated long-term (1974 89 water years) average annual total phosphorus load (excluding loads from sewage-treatment plants in ungaged areas) is 1,100 pounds per day.

Relative Contributions of Coronal Mass Ejections and High-speed Streams to the Long-term Variation of Annual Geomagnetic Activity: Solar Cycle Variation and Latitudinal Differences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holappa, L.; Mursula, K.

2017-12-01

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams (HSSs) are the most important large-scale solar wind structures driving geomagnetic activity. It is well known that CMEs cause the strongest geomagnetic storms, while HSSs drive mainly moderate or small storms. Here we study the spatial-temporal distribution of geomagnetic activity at annual resolution using local geomagnetic indices from a wide range of latitudes in 1966-2014. We show that the overall contribution of HSSs to geomagnetic activity exceeds that of CMEs at all latitudes. Only in a few sunspot maximum years CMEs have a comparable contribution to HSSs. While the relative contribution of HSSs maximizes at high latitudes, the relative contribution of CMEs maximizes at subauroral and low latitudes. We show that this is related to different latitudinal distribution of CME and HSS-driven substorms. We also show that the contributions of CMEs and HSSs to annual geomagnetic activity are highly correlated with the intensity of the interplanetary magnetic field and the solar wind speed, respectively. Thus, a very large fraction of the long-term variability in annual geomagnetic activity is described only by the variation of IMF strength and solar wind speed.

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

Long waves in the eastern equatorial pacific ocean: a view from a geostationary satellite.

PubMed

Legeckis, R

1977-09-16

During 1975, westward-moving long waves with a period of about 25 days and a wavelength of 1000 kilometers were observed at a sea surface temperature front in the equatorial Pacific on infrared images obtained by a geostationary environmental satellite system. The absence of these waves during 1976, and the above-average equatorial sea surface temperatures during 1976, may be related to a decrease in the southeasterly trade winds during that year.

On the use of QuikSCAT data for assessing wind energy resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karagali, I.; Peña, A.; Hahmann, A. N.; Hasager, C.; Badger, M.

2011-12-01

As the land space suitable for wind turbine installations becomes saturated, the focus is on offshore sites. Advantages of such a transition include increased power production, smaller environmental and social impact and extended availability of prospective areas. Until recently installation of wind turbines was limited in coastal areas. Nowadays, the search for suitable sites is extended beyond shallow waters, in locations far offshore where available measurements of various environmental parameters are limited. Space-borne observations are ideal due to their global spatial coverage, providing information where in-situ measurements are impracticable. The most widely used satellite observations for wind vector information are obtained by scatterometers; active radars that relate radiation backscattered from the sea surface to wind. SeaWinds, the scatterometer on board the QuikSCAT platform, launched by NASA in 1999 provided information with global coverage until 2009. The potential use of this 10-year long dataset is evaluated in the present study for the characterization of wind resources in the North and Baltic Seas, where most of Europe's offshore wind farms are located. Long-term QuikSCAT data have been extensively and positively validated in open ocean and in enclosed seas. In the present study QuikSCAT rain-free observations are compared with in-situ observations from three locations in the North Sea. As the remotely sensed observations refer to neutral atmospheric stratification, the impact of stability is assessed. Mean wind characteristics along with the Weibull A and k parameters are estimated in order to obtain information regarding the variation of wind. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) is used for comparisons against QuikSCAT. Surface winds derived from long-term WRF simulations are compared against QuikSCAT data to evaluate differences in the spatial extend. Preliminary results indicate very good agreement between satellite and in-situ observations. The mean annual wind speed at 10 meters above the sea surface is found significantly higher in the North Sea when compared to the Baltic Sea. Strong lee effects on the 10m wind speeds are observed, in particular the reduced wind speed on the east side of the British Isles as opposed to the west coast of Denmark. An intense flow channelling in the English Channel and the Baltic Sea is highlighted, along with various other effects. Comparisons between WRF and QuikSCAT show biases in the order of 0.4 m/s or lower in extended spatial scales. Higher negative biases, indicating higher QuikSCAT wind speed than the WRF-derived, are observed mainly in coastal areas where representativeness errors due to surface roughness changes are significant.

The structure of the solar wind in the inner heliosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christina On-Yee

2010-12-01

This dissertation is devoted to expanding our understanding of the solar wind structure in the inner heliosphere and variations therein with solar activity. Using spacecraft observations and numerical models, the origins of the large-scale structures and long-term trends of the solar wind are explored in order to gain insights on how our Sun determines the space environments of the terrestrial planets. I use long term measurements of the solar wind density, velocity, interplanetary magnetic field, and particles, together with models based on solar magnetic field data, to generate time series of these properties that span one solar rotation (˜27 days). From these time series, I assemble and obtain the synoptic overviews of the solar wind properties. The resulting synoptic overviews show that the solar wind around Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars is a complex co-rotating structure with recurring features and occasional transients. During quiet solar conditions, the heliospheric current sheet, which separates the positive interplanetary magnetic field from the negative, usually has a remarkably steady two- or four-sector structure that persists for many solar rotations. Within the sector boundaries are the slow and fast speed solar wind streams that originate from the open coronal magnetic field sources that map to the ecliptic. At the sector boundaries, compressed high-density and the related high-dynamic pressure ridges form where streams from different coronal source regions interact. High fluxes of energetic particles also occur at the boundaries, and are seen most prominently during the quiet solar period. The existence of these recurring features depends on how long-lived are their source regions. In the last decade, 3D numerical solar wind models have become more widely available. They provide important scientific tools for obtaining a more global view of the inner heliosphere and of the relationships between conditions at Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. When I compare the model results with observations for periods outside of solar wind disturbances, I find that the models do a good job of simulating at least the steady, large-scale, ambient solar wind structure. However, it remains a challenge to accurately model the solar wind during active solar conditions. During these times, solar transients such as coronal mass ejections travel through interplanetary space and disturb the ambient solar wind, producing a far less predictable and modelable space environment. However, such conditions may have the greatest impact on the planets - especially on their atmospheres and magnetospheres. I therefore also consider the next steps in modeling, toward including active conditions.

Height extrapolation of wind data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mikhail, A.S.

1982-11-01

Hourly average data for a period of 1 year from three tall meteorological towers - the Erie tower in Colorado, the Goodnoe Hills tower in Washington and the WKY-TV tower in Oklahoma - were used to analyze the wind shear exponent variabiilty with various parameters such as thermal stability, anemometer level wind speed, projection height and surface roughness. Different proposed models for prediction of height variability of short-term average wind speeds were discussed. Other models that predict the height dependence of Weilbull distribution parameters were tested. The observed power law exponent for all three towers showed strong dependence on themore » anemometer level wind speed and stability (nighttime and daytime). It also exhibited a high degree of dependence on extrapolation height with respect to anemometer height. These dependences became less severe as the anemometer level wind speeds were increased due to the turbulent mixing of the atmospheric boundary layer. The three models used for Weibull distribution parameter extrapolation were he velocity-dependent power law model (Justus), the velocity, surface roughness, and height-dependent model (Mikhail) and the velocity and surface roughness-dependent model (NASA). The models projected the scale parameter C fairly accurately for the Goodnoe Hills and WKY-TV towers and were less accurate for the Erie tower. However, all models overestimated the C value. The maximum error for the Mikhail model was less than 2% for Goodnoe Hills, 6% for WKY-TV and 28% for Erie. The error associated with the prediction of the shape factor (K) was similar for the NASA, Mikhail and Justus models. It ranged from 20 to 25%. The effect of the misestimation of hub-height distribution parameters (C and K) on average power output is briefly discussed.« less

Vertical temperature and density patterns in the Arctic mesosphere analyzed as gravity waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eberstein, I. J.; Theon, J. S.

1975-01-01

Rocket soundings conducted from high latitude sites in the Arctic mesosphere are described. Temperature and wind profiles and one density profile were observed independently to obtain the thermodynamic structure, the wind structure, and their interdependence in the mesosphere. Temperature profiles from all soundings were averaged, and a smooth curve (or series of smooth curves) drawn through the points. A hydrostatic atmosphere based on the average, measured temperature profile was computed, and deviations from the mean atmosphere were analyzed in terms of gravity wave theory. The vertical wavelengths of the deviations were 10-20 km, and the wave amplitudes slowly increased with height. The experimental data were matched by calculated gravity waves having a period of 15-20 minutes and a horizontal wavelength of 60-80 km. The wind measurements are consistent with the thermodynamic measurements. The results also suggest that gravity waves travel from East to West with a horizontal phase velocity of approximately 60 m sec-1.

WIND STRUCTURE AND LUMINOSITY VARIATIONS IN THE WOLF-RAYET/LUMINOUS BLUE VARIABLE HD 5980

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgiev, Leonid; Koenigsberger, Gloria; Hillier, D. John

Over the past 40 years, the massive luminous blue variable/Wolf-Rayet system HD 5980 in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) has undergone a long-term S Doradus-type variability cycle and two brief and violent eruptions in 1993 and 1994. In this paper we analyze a collection of UV and optical spectra obtained between 1979 and 2009 and perform CMFGEN model fits to spectra of 1994, 2000, 2002, and 2009. The results are as follows: (1) the long-term S Dor-type variability is associated with changes of the hydrostatic radius; (2) the 1994 eruption involved changes in its bolometric luminosity and wind structure; (3)more » the emission-line strength, the wind velocity, and the continuum luminosity underwent correlated variations in the sense that a decreasing V{sub {infinity}} is associated with increasing emission line and continuum levels; and (4) the spectrum of the third star in the system (Star C) is well fit by a T{sub eff} = 32 K model atmosphere with SMC chemical abundances. For all epochs, the wind of the erupting star is optically thick at the sonic point and is thus driven mainly by the continuum opacity. We speculate that the wind switches between two stable regimes driven by the 'hot' (during the eruption) and the 'cool' (post-eruption) iron opacity bumps as defined by Lamers and Nugis and Graefener and Hamann, and thus the wind may undergo a bi-stability jump of a different nature from that which occurs in OB stars.« less

CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF ULTRAFINE, FINE, AND COARSE PARTICLES IN A RESIDENCE FOR 18 MONTHS IN 1999-2000

EPA Science Inventory

Continuous monitors were employed for 18 months in an occupied townhouse to measure ultrafine, fine, and coarse particles; air change rates; wind speed and direction; temperature; and relative humidity (RH). A main objective was to document short-term and long-term variation in...

A parabolic velocity-decomposition method for wind turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mittal, Anshul; Briley, W. Roger; Sreenivas, Kidambi; Taylor, Lafayette K.

2017-02-01

An economical parabolized Navier-Stokes approximation for steady incompressible flow is combined with a compatible wind turbine model to simulate wind turbine flows, both upstream of the turbine and in downstream wake regions. The inviscid parabolizing approximation is based on a Helmholtz decomposition of the secondary velocity vector and physical order-of-magnitude estimates, rather than an axial pressure gradient approximation. The wind turbine is modeled by distributed source-term forces incorporating time-averaged aerodynamic forces generated by a blade-element momentum turbine model. A solution algorithm is given whose dependent variables are streamwise velocity, streamwise vorticity, and pressure, with secondary velocity determined by two-dimensional scalar and vector potentials. In addition to laminar and turbulent boundary-layer test cases, solutions for a streamwise vortex-convection test problem are assessed by mesh refinement and comparison with Navier-Stokes solutions using the same grid. Computed results for a single turbine and a three-turbine array are presented using the NREL offshore 5-MW baseline wind turbine. These are also compared with an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solution computed with full rotor resolution. On balance, the agreement in turbine wake predictions for these test cases is very encouraging given the substantial differences in physical modeling fidelity and computer resources required.

The Santa Barbara Channel - Santa Maria Basin Study: Wind Measurements and Modeling Resolving Coastal Mesoscale Meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorman, C. E.; Koracin, D.

2002-12-01

The importance of winds in driving the coastal ocean has long been recognized. Pre-World War II literature links wind stress and wind stress curl to coastal ocean responses. Nevertheless, direct measurements plausibly representative of a coastal area are few. Multiple observations on the scale of the simplest mesoscale atmospheric structure, such as the cross-coast variation along a linear coast, are even less frequent. The only wind measurements that we are aware of in a complicated coastal area backed by higher topography are in the MMS sponsored, Santa Barbara Channel/Santa Marina basin study. Taking place from 1994 to present, this study had an unheard of dense surface automated meteorological station array of up to 5 meteorological buoys, 4 oil platforms, 2 island stations, and 11 coastal stations within 1 km of the beach. Most of the land stations are maintained by other projects. Only a large, a well funded project with backed by an agency with the long-view could dedicate the resources and effort into filling the mesoscale "holes" and maintaining long-term, remotely located stations. The result of the MMS funded project is a sufficiently dense surface station array to resolve the along-coast and cross-coast atmospheric mesoscale wind structure. Great temporal and spatial variation is found in the wind, wind stress and the wind stress curl, during the extended summer season. The MM5 atmospheric mesoscale model with appropriate boundary layer physics and high-resolution horizontal and vertical grid structure successfully simulates the measured wind field from large scale down to the lower end of the mesoscale. Atmospheric models without appropriate resolution and boundary layer physics fail to capture significant mesoscale wind features. Satellite microwave wind measurements generally capture the offshore synoptic scale temporal and spatial scale in twice-a-day snap shots but fail in the crucial, innermost coastal waters and the diurnal scale.

A Long-lived Cyclone In Saturn's Atmosphere: Observations And Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Rio Gaztelurrutia, Teresa; Legarreta, J.; Hueso, R.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Sánchez-Lavega, A.

2009-09-01

The atmospheres of the Giant Planets Jupiter and Saturn possess large numbers of atmospheric vortices. On Jupiter, anticyclones are generally long-lived structures while cyclones survive a much shorter time. A long term survey of images of Saturn atmosphere obtained by the Cassini ISS camera has revealed the presence of a long-lived cyclone in Saturn's southern hemisphere during at least four years, making this vortex the longest lived cyclone on either Jupiter or Saturn. We find that the vortex drifts following the wind profile, with changes in velocity following changes of latitude. During the four years of our survey its size remained essentially constant, and there was no other structure of comparable size at its latitude. Internal circulation is cyclonic, with a maximum velocity of 20±5 m/s and an average vorticity of 4·10-5 s-1, an order of magnitude lower than planetary vorticity, but only slightly higher than the ambient vorticity. Photometric analysis shows that the vortex is located at a slightly lower altitude than its surroundings, at an average of 10-20 mbar below adjacent clouds. Finally, EPIC simulations of the vortex that reproduce its behavior imply a Rossby deformation radius of 2000 km in the weather layer (1 - 10 bar), consistent with the size of the cyclone. The long-lifetime of this cyclonic spot is surprising in view of its low tangential velocity and it suggests that low dissipation conditions prevail at mid-latitudes in Saturn's upper troposphere. Acknowledgements This work has been funded by Spanish MEC AYA2006-07735 with FEDER support and Grupos Gobierno Vasco IT-464-07. RH acknowledges a "Ramón y Cajal” contract from MEC.

Wind energy potential assessment of Cameroon's coastal regions for the installation of an onshore wind farm.

PubMed

Arreyndip, Nkongho Ayuketang; Joseph, Ebobenow; David, Afungchui

2016-11-01

For the future installation of a wind farm in Cameroon, the wind energy potentials of three of Cameroon's coastal cities (Kribi, Douala and Limbe) are assessed using NASA average monthly wind data for 31 years (1983-2013) and compared through Weibull statistics. The Weibull parameters are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood, the mean power densities, the maximum energy carrying wind speeds and the most probable wind speeds are also calculated and compared over these three cities. Finally, the cumulative wind speed distributions over the wet and dry seasons are also analyzed. The results show that the shape and scale parameters for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 2.9 and 2.8, 3.9 and 1.8 and 3.08 and 2.58, respectively. The mean power densities through Weibull analysis for Kribi, Douala and Limbe are 33.7 W/m2, 8.0 W/m2 and 25.42 W/m2, respectively. Kribi's most probable wind speed and maximum energy carrying wind speed was found to be 2.42 m/s and 3.35 m/s, 2.27 m/s and 3.03 m/s for Limbe and 1.67 m/s and 2.0 m/s for Douala, respectively. Analysis of the wind speed and hence power distribution over the wet and dry seasons shows that in the wet season, August is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while September is the windiest month for Kribi while in the dry season, March is the windiest month for Douala and Limbe while February is the windiest month for Kribi. In terms of mean power density, most probable wind speed and wind speed carrying maximum energy, Kribi shows to be the best site for the installation of a wind farm. Generally, the wind speeds at all three locations seem quite low, average wind speeds of all the three studied locations fall below 4.0m/s which is far below the cut-in wind speed of many modern wind turbines. However we recommend the use of low cut-in speed wind turbines like the Savonius for stand alone low energy needs.

The measurement of the synoptic scale wind over the ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierson, W. J.

1982-01-01

Mesoscale and microscale features of the turbulent winds over the ocean are related to the synoptic scale winds in terms of published spectral forms for the microscale, a mesoscale valley and published values of U*, VAR u', VAR v' and z/L, as defined in the text and as obtained for moderate to gale force winds. The frequencies involved correspond to periods longer than 1 hour and extend to the microscale, which starts at a period near 2 minutes, or so, and continues to the Kolmogorov inertial range. Nondimensional spectra that span both the mesoscale and the microscale are derived as a function of u, f(= n z/u) and z/L, where z is 10 meters, L is the Monin Obukov stability length and u is evaluated at 10 meters. For the same u, different values of z/L produce a range of values of u which in turn result in variations of the eddy structure of the mesoscale and microscale spectra. Both conventional anemometer averages and remotely sensed winds contain a random component of the mesoscale wind in their values. These components are differnces and not errors when winds are compared, and quantitative values for these differences are given. Ways to improve the measurement of the synoptic scale wind by transient ships, data buoys and scatterometers on future spacecraft are described. These ways are loner averaging times for ships and data buoys, depending on the synoptic conditions, and pooling spacecraft to form super observations. Design considerations for future remote sensing systems are given.

On the theory relating changes in area-average and pan evaporation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuttleworth, W.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Roderick, M. L.; Scott, R.

2009-12-01

Theory relating changes in area-average evaporation with changes in the evaporation from pans or open water is developed. Such changes can arise by Type (a) processes related to large-scale changes in atmospheric concentrations and circulation that modify surface evaporation rates in the same direction, and Type (b) processes related to coupling between the surface and atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) at the landscape scale that usually modify area-average evaporation and pan evaporation in different directions. The interrelationship between evaporation rates in response to Type (a) changes is derived. They have the same sign and broadly similar magnitude but the change in area-average evaporation is modified by surface resistance. As an alternative to assuming the complementary evaporation hypothesis, the results of previous modeling studies that investigated surface-atmosphere coupling are parameterized and used to develop a theoretical description of Type (b) coupling via vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the ABL. The interrelationship between appropriately normalized pan and area-average evaporation rates is shown to vary with temperature and wind speed but, on average, the Type (b) changes are approximately equal and opposite. Long-term Australian pan evaporation data are analyzed to demonstrate the simultaneous presence of Type (a) and (b) processes, and observations from three field sites in southwestern USA show support for the theory describing Type (b) coupling via VPD. England's victory over Australia in 2009 Ashes cricket test match series will not be mentioned.

Annual Industrial Capabilities Report to Congress

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

Electronics Information Technology Association (GEIA-10/2008), because of concerns over the deficits and declining threat as the Iraq war winds down. The...companies. As a result, the long-term deficit is projected to be close to $9.2T over the next 10 years, with Publicly Held Debt as a percentage of Gross...large companies. As a result, the long-term deficit is projected to be close to $9.2T over the next 10 years, with Publicly Held Debt as a percentage

Coast of California Storm and Tidal Waves Study. Southern California Coastal Processes Data Summary,

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-02-01

distribution of tracers injected on the beach. The suspended load was obtained from in situ measurements of the water column in the surf zone (Zampol and...wind waves. 3.2.2 Wave Climate There are relatively few in situ long-term measurements of the deep ocean (i.e. unaffected by the channel islands and...climate parameters and were not intended for that purpose. In the literature reviewed, the principal source of long-term in situ measurements is the

Aeolian Dunes: New High-Resolution Archives of Past Wind-Intensity and -Direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindhorst, S.; Betzler, C.

2017-12-01

The understanding of the long-term variability of local wind-fields is most relevant for calibrating climate models and for the prediction of the socio-economic consequences of climate change. Continuous instrumental-based weather observations go back less than two centuries; aeolian dunes, however, contain an archive of past wind-field fluctuations which is basically unread. We present new ways to reconstruct annual to seasonal changes of wind intensity and predominant wind direction from dune-sediment composition and -geometries based on ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data, grain-size analyses and different age-dating approaches. Resulting proxy-based data series on wind are validated against instrumental based weather observations. Our approach can be applied to both recent as well as fossil dunes. Potential applications include the validation of climate models, the reconstruction of past supra-regional wind systems and the monitoring of future shifts in the climate system.

Comprehensive Renewable Energy Feasibility Study for the Makah Indian Tribe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

RobertLynette; John Wade; Larry Coupe

The purpose of this project was to determine the technical feasibility, economic viability, and potential impacts of installing and operating a wind power station and/or small hydroelectric generation plants on the Makah reservation. The long-term objective is to supply all or a portion of Tribe's electricity from local, renewable energy sources in order to reduce costs, provide local employment, and reduce power outages. An additional objective was for the Tribe to gain an understanding of the requirements, costs, and benefits of developing and operating such plants on the reservation. The Makah Indian Reservation, with a total land area of forty-sevenmore » square miles, is located on the northwestern tip of the Olympic Peninsula in Washington State. Four major watersheds drain the main Reservation areas and the average rainfall is over one hundred inches per year. The reservation's west side borders the Pacific Ocean, but mostly consists of rugged mountainous terrain between 500 and 1,900 feet in elevation. Approximately 1,200 tribal members live on the Reservation and there is an additional non-Indian residential population of about 300. Electric power is provided by the Clallam County PUD. The annual usage on the reservation is approximately 16,700 mWh. Project Work Wind Energy--Two anemometer suites of equipment were installed on the reservation and operated for a more than a year. An off-site reference station was identified and used to project long-term wind resource characteristics at the two stations. Transmission resources were identified and analyzed. A preliminary financial analysis of a hypothetical wind power station was prepared and used to gauge the economic viability of installation of a multi-megawatt wind power station. Small Hydroelectric--Two potential sites for micro/small-hydro were identified by analysis of previous water resource studies, topographical maps, and conversations with knowledgeable Makah personnel. Field trips were conducted to collect preliminary site data. A report was prepared by Alaska Power & Telephone (Larry Coupe) including preliminary layouts, capacities, potential environmental issues, and projected costs. Findings and Conclusions Wind Energy The average wind resources measured at both sites were marginal, with annual average wind speeds of 13.6-14.0 mph at a 65-meter hub height, and wind shears of 0.08-0.13. Using GE 1.5 MW wind turbines with a hub height of 65 meters, yields a net capacity factor of approximately 0.19. The cost-of-energy for a commercial project is estimated at approximately 9.6 cents per kWh using current costs for capital and equipment prices. Economic viability for a commercial wind power station would require a subsidy of 40-50% of the project capital cost, loans provided at approximately 2% rate of interest, or a combination of grants and loans at substantially below market rates. Recommendations: Because the cost-of-energy from wind power is decreasing, and because there may be small pockets of higher winds on the reservation, our recommendation is to: (1) Leave one of the two anemometer towers, preferably the 50-meter southern unit MCC, in place and continue to collect data from this site. This site would serve as an excellent reference anemometer for the Olympic Peninsula, and, (2) If funds permit, relocate the northern tower (MCB) to a promising small site closer to the transmission line with the hope of finding a more energetic site that is easier to develop. Small Hydroelectric There are a very limited number of sites on the reservation that have potential for economical hydroelectric development, even in conjunction with water supply development. Two sites emerged as the most promising and were evaluated: (1) One utilizing four creeks draining the north side of the Cape Flattery peninsula (Cape Creeks), and (2) One on the Waatch River to the south of Neah Bay. The Cape Creeks site would be a combination water supply and 512 kW power generation facility and would cost a approximately $11,100,000. Annual power generation would be approximately 1,300,000 kWh and the plant would have a cost-of-energy of approximately 65 cents per kWh, substantially above market rates. The Waatch site would also be a combination water supply and power generation facility. It would have a rated capacity of 935 kW and would cost approximately $16,400,000. Annual power generation would be approximately 3,260,000 kWh and the plant would have a cost-of-energy of approximately 38 cents per kWh, also substantially above market rates. Recommendation: Stand-alone hydroelectric development is not commercially viable. The Tribal Council should not pursue development of hydroelectric facilities on the Makah Reservation unless they are an adjunct to a water supply development, and the water supply systems absorbs almost all the capital cost of the project.« less

The Influence of Hurricane Winds on Caribbean Dry Forest Structure and Nutrient Pools

Treesearch

Skip J. Van Bloem; Peter G. Murphy; Ariel E. Lugo; Rebecca Ostertag; Maria Rivera Costa; Ivelisse Ruiz Bernard; Sandra Molina Colon; Miguel Canals Mora

2005-01-01

In 1998, we measured the effects of Hurricane Georges after it passed over long-term research sites in Puerto Rican dry forest. Our primary objectives were to quantify hurricane effects on forest structure, to compare effects in a large tract of forest versus a series of nearby forest fragments, to evaluate short-term response to hurricane disturbance in terms of...

Impacts of an Extreme Early-Season Freeze Event in the Interior Pacific Northwest (30 October-3 November 2002) on Western Juniper Woodlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knapp, Paul A.; Soulé, Peter T.

2005-07-01

In mid-autumn 2002, an exceptional 5-day cold spell affected much of the interior Pacific Northwest, with minimum temperatures averaging 13°C below long-term means (1953-2002). On 31 October, minimum temperature records occurred at 98 of the 106 recording stations, with records lowered in some locations by 9°C. Calculation of recurrence intervals of minimum temperatures shows that 50% of the stations experienced a >500-yr event. The synoptic conditions responsible were the development of a pronounced high pressure ridge over western Canada and an intense low pressure area centered in the Intermountain West that promoted strong northeasterly winds. The cold spell occurred near the end of the growing season for an ecologically critical and dominant tree species of the interior Pacific Northwest—western juniper—and followed an extended period of severe drought. In spring 2003, it became apparent that the cold had caused high rates of tree mortality and canopy dieback in a species that is remarkable for its longevity and resistance to climatic stress. The cold event altered western juniper dominance in some areas, and this alteration may have long-term impacts on water budgets, fire intensities and frequencies, animal species interrelationships, and interspecific competition among plant species.

Long-term increases in young-of-the-year growth of Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis and environmental influences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Von Biela, V.R.; Zimmerman, C.E.; Moulton, L.L.

2011-01-01

Arctic cisco Coregonus autumnalis young-of-year (YOY) growth was used as a proxy to examine the long-term response of a high-latitude fish population to changing climate from 1978 to 2004. YOY growth increased over time (r2 = 0??29) and was correlated with monthly averages of the Arctic oscillation index, air temperature, east wind speed, sea-ice concentration and river discharge with and without time lags. Overall, the most prevalent correlates to YOY growth were sea-ice concentration lagged 1 year (significant correlations in 7 months; r2 = 0??14-0??31) and Mackenzie River discharge lagged 2 years (significant correlations in 8 months; r2 = 0??13-0??50). The results suggest that decreased sea-ice concentrations and increased river discharge fuel primary production and that life cycles of prey species linking increased primary production to fish growth are responsible for the time lag. Oceanographic studies also suggest that sea ice concentration and fluvial inputs from the Mackenzie River are key factors influencing productivity in the Beaufort Sea. Future research should assess the possible mechanism relating sea ice concentration and river discharge to productivity at upper trophic levels. Journal of Fish Biology ?? 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles. No claim to original US government works.

On the Development of Models for Height Profiles of the Wind Speed in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikolaev, V. G.; Ganaga, S. V.; Kudryashov, Yu. I.; Nikolaev, V. V.

2018-03-01

The reliability of the known models of a height profile of the wind speed V( h) in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and near-surface layer (NSL) is analyzed using the data of long-term ABL measurements accumulated in Russia in the state network of meteorological and aerological stations and the data of multilevel measurements at mast wind-measuring complexes. A new multilayer semiempirical model of V( h) is proposed which is based on aerodynamic and physical representations of the ABL vertical structure and relies on the hypothesis that wind-speed profiles providing the minimum wind friction on the ground and satisfying the conditions of profile smoothness are feasible in the ABL. This model ensures the best agreement with the data of meteorological, aerological, and mast wind measurements.

Assessment of acetabular retroversion following long term review of Salter's osteotomy.

PubMed

Robb, Curtis A; Datta, Amit; Nayeemuddin, Mohammed; Bache, Christopher E

2009-01-01

Salter's innominate osteotomy may predispose to anterior over-coverage of the acetabulum. Over cover or retroversion has been demonstrated to be a cause of hip pain, impingement and subsequent osteoarthritis. We reviewed the long-term follow up of seventeen skeletally mature hips in sixteen patients who had previously undergone a Salter's osteotomy in childhood. The Salter pelvic osteotomy was performed at a mean average age of 5 years and follow up at a mean average age of 20 years. Patients were assessed by clinical examination for signs of impingement, Harris Hip Score and pelvic radiograph. Acetabular version was evaluated by the relationship between anterior and posterior walls of the acetabulum using templates applied to the pelvic radiograph as described by Hefti. The median acetabular cover averaged 17 degrees of anteversion with 2 patients (12%) demonstrating retroversion, neither of whom, had signs of impingement on examination. The mean average Harris Hip Score was 85 indicating a good outcome at long-term follow-up. We believe acetabular remodelling may occur with age after Salter's innominate osteotomy and have found good results in patients after skeletal maturation. Fears of long-term anterior over-coverage and retroversion with this operation may be unfounded.

Surface and airborne evidence for plumes and winds on triton

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, C.J.; McEwen, A.S.; Ingersoll, A.P.; Terrile, R.J.

1990-01-01

Aeolian features on Triton that were imaged during the Voyager Mission have been grouped. The term "aeolian feature" is broadly defined as features produced by or blown by the wind, including surface and airborne materials. Observations of the latitudinal distributions of the features probably associated with current activity (known plumes, crescent streaks, fixed terminator clouds, and limb haze with overshoot) all occur from latitude -37?? to latitude -62??. Likely indicators of previous activity (dark surface streaks) occur from latitude -5?? to -70??, but are most abundant from -15?? to -45??, generally north of currently active features. Those indicators which give information on wind direction and speed have been measured. Wind direction is a function of altitude. The predominant direction of the surface wind streaks is found to be between 40?? and 80?? measured clockwise from north. The average orientation of streaks in the northeast quadrant is 59??. Winds at 1- to 3-kilometer altitude are eastward, while those at >8 kilometers blow west.

Performance measurements of a pilot superconducting solenoid model core for a wind tunnel magnetic suspension and balance system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodyer, M. J.; Britcher, C. P.

1983-01-01

The results of experimental demonstrations of a superconducting solenoid model core in the Southampton University Magnetic Suspension and Balance System are detailed. Technology and techniques relevant to large-scale wind tunnel MSBSs comprise the long term goals. The magnetic moment of solenoids, difficulties peculiar to superconducting solenoid cores, lift force and pitching moment, dynamic lift calibration, and helium boil-off measurements are discussed.

Global assimilation of X Project Loon stratospheric balloon observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coy, L.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Pawson, S.; Candido, S.; Carver, R. W.

2017-12-01

Project Loon has an overall goal of providing worldwide internet coverage using a network of long-duration super-pressure balloons. Beginning in 2013, Loon has launched over 1600 balloons from multiple tropical and middle latitude locations. These GPS tracked balloon trajectories provide lower stratospheric wind information over the oceans and remote land areas where traditional radiosonde soundings are sparse, thus providing unique coverage of lower stratospheric winds. To fully investigate these Loon winds we: 1) compare the Loon winds to winds produced by a global data assimilation system (DAS: NASA GEOS) and 2) assimilate the Loon winds into the same comprehensive DAS. Results show that in middle latitudes the Loon winds and DAS winds agree well and assimilating the Loon winds have only a small impact on short-term forecasting of the Loon winds, however, in the tropics the loon winds and DAS winds often disagree substantially (8 m/s or more in magnitude) and in these cases assimilating the loon winds significantly improves the forecast of the loon winds. By highlighting cases where the Loon and DAS winds differ, these results can lead to improved understanding of stratospheric winds, especially in the tropics.

Global Assimilation of X Project Loon Stratospheric Balloon Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coy, Lawrence; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Pawson, Steven; Candido, Salvatore; Carver, Robert W.

2017-01-01

Project Loon has an overall goal of providing worldwide internet coverage using a network of long-duration super-pressure balloons. Beginning in 2013, Loon has launched over 1600 balloons from multiple tropical and middle latitude locations. These GPS tracked balloon trajectories provide lower stratospheric wind information over the oceans and remote land areas where traditional radiosonde soundings are sparse, thus providing unique coverage of lower stratospheric winds. To fully investigate these Loon winds we: 1) compare the Loon winds to winds produced by a global data assimilation system (DAS: NASA GEOS) and 2) assimilate the Loon winds into the same comprehensive DAS. Results show that in middle latitudes the Loon winds and DAS winds agree well and assimilating the Loon winds have only a small impact on short-term forecasting of the Loon winds, however, in the tropics the loon winds and DAS winds often disagree substantially (8 m/s or more in magnitude) and in these cases assimilating the loon winds significantly improves the forecast of the loon winds. By highlighting cases where the Loon and DAS winds differ, these results can lead to improved understanding of stratospheric winds, especially in the tropics.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Solar wind velocity and daily variation of cosmic rays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahluwalia, H. S.; Riker, J. F.

1985-01-01

Recently parameters applicable to the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have become much better defined. Superior quality of data bases that are now available, particularly for post-1971 period, make it possible to believe the long-term trends in the data. These data are correlated with the secular changes observed in the diurnal variation parameters obtained from neutron monitor data at Deep River and underground muon telescope data at Embudo (30 MEW) and Socorro (82 MWE). The annual mean amplitudes appear to have large values during the epochs of high speed solar wind streams. Results are discussed.

Geomagnetic activity: Dependence on solar wind parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Svalgaard, L.

1977-01-01

Current ideas about the interaction between the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere are reviewed. The solar wind dynamic pressure as well as the influx of interplanetary magnetic field lines are both important for the generation of geomagnetic activity. The influence of the geometry of the situation as well as the variability of the interplanetary magnetic field are both found to be important factors. Semi-annual and universal time variations are discussed as well as the 22-year cycle in geomagnetic activity. All three are found to be explainable by the varying geometry of the interaction. Long term changes in geomagnetic activity are examined.

Inherent Variability in Short-time Wind Turbine Statistics from Turbulence Structure in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavely, Adam; Vijayakumar, Ganesh; Brasseur, James; Paterson, Eric; Kinzel, Michael

2011-11-01

Using large-eddy simulation (LES) of the neutral and moderately convective atmospheric boundary layers (NBL, MCBL), we analyze the impact of coherent turbulence structure of the atmospheric surface layer on the short-time statistics that are commonly collected from wind turbines. The incoming winds are conditionally sampled with a filtering and thresholding algorithm into high/low horizontal and vertical velocity fluctuation coherent events. The time scales of these events are ~5 - 20 blade rotations and are roughly twice as long in the MCBL as the NBL. Horizontal velocity events are associated with greater variability in rotor power, lift and blade-bending moment than vertical velocity events. The variability in the industry standard 10 minute average for rotor power, sectional lift and wind velocity had a standard deviation of ~ 5% relative to the ``infinite time'' statistics for the NBL and ~10% for the MCBL. We conclude that turbulence structure associated with atmospheric stability state contributes considerable, quantifiable, variability to wind turbine statistics. Supported by NSF and DOE.

Long-term outcomes of anterior spinal fusion for treating thoracic adolescent idiopathic scoliosis curves: average 15-year follow-up analysis.

PubMed

Sudo, Hideki; Ito, Manabu; Kaneda, Kiyoshi; Shono, Yasuhiro; Takahata, Masahiko; Abumi, Kuniyoshi

2013-05-01

Retrospective review. To assess the long-term outcomes of anterior spinal fusion (ASF) for treating thoracic adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Although ASF is reported to provide good coronal and sagittal correction of the main thoracic (MT) AIS curves, the long-term outcomes of ASF is unknown. A consecutive series of 25 patients with Lenke 1 MT AIS were included. Outcome measures comprised radiographical measurements, pulmonary function, and Scoliosis Research Society outcome instrument (SRS-30) scores (preoperative SRS-30 scores were not documented). Postoperative surgical revisions and complications were recorded. Twenty-five patients were followed-up for 12 to 18 years (average, 15.2 yr). The average MT Cobb angle correction rate and the correction loss at the final follow-up were 56.7% and 9.2°, respectively. The average preoperative instrumented level of kyphosis was 8.3°, which significantly improved to 18.6° (P = 0.0003) at the final follow-up. The average percent-predicted forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were significantly decreased during long-term follow-up measurements (73% and 69%; P = 0.0004 and 0.0016, respectively). However, no patient had complaints related to pulmonary function. The average total SRS-30 score was 4.0. Implant breakage was not observed. All patients, except 1 who required revision surgery, demonstrated solid fusion. Late instrumentation-related bronchial problems were observed in 1 patient who required implant removal and bronchial tube repair, 13 years after the initial surgery. Overall radiographical findings and patient outcome measures of ASF for Lenke 1 MT AIS were satisfactory at an average follow-up of 15 years. ASF provides significant sagittal correction of the main thoracic curve with long-term maintenance of sagittal profiles. Percent-predicted values of forced vital capacity and forced expiratory volume in 1 second were decreased in this cohort; however, no patient had complaints related to pulmonary function.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dósa, M.; Erdős, G., E-mail: dosa.melinda@wigner.mta.hu

Open magnetic flux in the heliosphere is determined from the radial component of the magnetic field vector measured onboard interplanetary space probes. Previous Ulysses research has shown remarkable independence of the flux density from heliographic latitude, explained by super-radial expansion of plasma. Here we are investigating whether any longitudinal variation exists in the 50 year long OMNI magnetic data set. The heliographic longitude of origin of the plasma package was determined by applying a correction according to the solar wind travel time. Significant recurrent enhancements of the magnetic flux density were observed throughout solar cycle 23, lasting for several years.more » Similar, long-lasting recurring features were observed in the solar wind velocity, temperature and the deviation angle of the solar wind velocity vector from the radial direction. Each of the recurrent features has a recurrence period slightly differing from the Carrington rotation rate, although they show a common trend in time. Examining the coronal temperature data of ACE leads to the possible explanation that these long-term structures are caused by slow–fast solar wind interaction regions. A comparison with MESSENGER data measured at 0.5 au shows that these longitudinal magnetic modulations do not exist closer to the Sun, but are the result of propagation.« less

Climatic, biological, and land cover controls on the exchange of gas-phase semivolatile chemical pollutants between forest canopies and the atmosphere.

PubMed

Nizzetto, Luca; Perlinger, Judith A

2012-03-06

An ecophysiological model of a structured broadleaved forest canopy was coupled to a chemical fate model of the air-canopy exchange of gaseous semivolatile chemicals to dynamically assess the short-term (hours) and medium term (days to season) air-canopy exchange and the influence of biological, climatic, and land cover drivers on the dynamics of the air-canopy exchange and on the canopy storage for airborne semivolatile pollutants. The chemical fate model accounts for effects of short-term variations in air temperature, wind speed, stomatal opening, and leaf energy balance, all as a function of layer in the canopy. Simulations showed the potential occurrence of intense short/medium term re-emission of pollutants having log K(OA) up to 10.7 from the canopy as a result of environmental forcing. In addition, relatively small interannual variations in seasonally averaged air temperature, canopy biomass, and precipitation can produce relevant changes in the canopy storage capacity for the chemicals. It was estimated that possible climate change related variability in environmental parameters (e.g., an increase of 2 °C in seasonally averaged air temperature in combination with a 10% reduction in canopy biomass due to, e.g., disturbance or acclimatization) may cause a reduction in canopy storage capacity of up to 15-25%, favoring re-emission and potential for long-range atmospheric transport. On the other hand, an increase of 300% in yearly precipitation can increase canopy sequestration by 2-7% for the less hydrophobic compounds.

Collisionless Isotropization of the Solar-Wind Protons by Compressive Fluctuations and Plasma Instabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verscharen, D.; Chandran, B. D. G.; Klein, K. G.; Quataert, E.

2016-12-01

Compressive fluctuations are a minor yet significant component of astrophysical plasma turbulence. In the solar wind, long-wavelength compressive slow-mode fluctuations lead to changes in β∥p ≡ 8πnpkBT∥p/B2 and in Rp ≡ T⊥p/T∥p, where T⊥p and T∥p are the perpendicular and parallel temperatures of the protons, B is the magnetic field strength, and np is the proton density. If the amplitude of the compressive fluctuations is large enough, Rp crosses one or more instability thresholds for anisotropy-driven micro-instabilities. The enhanced field fluctuations from these micro-instabilities scatter the protons so as to reduce the anisotropy of the pressure tensor, driving the average value of Rp away from the marginal stability boundary until the fluctuating value of Rp stops crossing the boundary. We model this "fluctuating-anisotropy effect" using linear Vlasov-Maxwell theory to describe the large-scale compressive fluctuations. We show that this effect can explain why, in the nearly collisionless solar wind, the average value of Rp is close to unity.

75 FR 66271 - Assessment Dividends, Assessment Rates and Designated Reserve Ratio

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-27

... has recovered to pre-crisis levels, and the long term, when the reserve ratio is sufficiently large... detail below, concludes that a moderate, long-term average industry assessment rate, combined with an... and earnings of IDIs. Long Term To increase the probability that the fund reserve ratio will reach a...

The influence of changes in wind patterns on the areal extension of surface cyanobacterial blooms in a large shallow lake in China.

PubMed

Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Brookes, Justin D; Shi, Kun; Zhu, Guangwei; Zhu, Mengyuan; Yan, Wenming; Wang, Zhen

2015-06-15

It has been hypothesized that climate change will induce the areal extension of cyanobacterial blooms. However, this hypothesis lacks field-based observation. In the present study both long-term historical data and short-term field measurement were used to identify the importance of changes in wind patterns on the cyanobacterial bloom in Lake Taihu (China), a large, shallow, eutrophic lake located in a subtropical zone. The cyanobacterial bloom mainly composed of Microcystis spp. recurred frequently throughout the year. The regression analysis of multi-year satellite image data extracted by the Floating Algae Index revealed that both the annual mean monthly maximum cyanobacterial bloom area (MMCBA) increased year by year from 2000 to 2011, while the contemporaneous cyanobacterial biomass showed no significant change. However, the correlation analysis shows that MMCBA was negatively correlated with wind speed. Our short-term field measurements indicated that the influence of wind on surface cyanobacterial blooms is that the Chlorophyll-a (Chla) concentration is fully mixing throughout the water column when the wind speed exceed 7 m s(-1). At lower wind speeds, there was vertical stratification of Chla with high surface concentrations and an increase in bloom area. The regression analysis of wind speed indicates that the climate has changed over the last decade. Lake Taihu has become increasingly calm, with the decrease of strong wind frequency between 2000 and 2011, corresponding to the increase in the MMCBA over time. Therefore, we conclude that changes in wind patterns related to climate change have favored the increase of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Compensation for use of monthly-averaged winds in numerical modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, C. L.

1981-01-01

Ratios R of the monthly averaged wind speeds to the magnitudes of the monthly averaged wind vectors are presented over a 41 x 41 grid covering the southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent. The ratio is found to vary from 1 to over 1000, with an average value of 1.86. These ratios R are relevant for converting from sensible and latent heats calculated with mean monthly data to those calculated with 12 hourly data. The corresponding ratios alpha for wind stress, along with the angle deviations involved, are also presented over the same 41 x 41 grid. The values of alpha generally exceed those for R and average 2.66. Regions in zones of variable wind directions have larger R and alpha ratios, over the ice-covered portions of the southern Ocean averaging 2.74 and 4.35 for R and alpha respectively. Thus adjustments to compensate for the use of mean monthly wind velocities should be stronger for wind stress than for turbulent heats and stronger over ice covered regions than over regions with more persistent wind directions, e.g., those in the belt of mid-latitude westerlies.

Climate Assessment for 2000.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lawrimore, Jay H.; Halpert, Michael S.; Bell, Gerald D.; Menne, Matthew J.; Lyon, Bradfield; Schnell, Russell C.; Gleason, Karin L.; Easterling, David R.; Thiaw, Wasila; Wright, William J.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Robinson, David A.; Alexander, Lisa

2001-06-01

The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States.Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August-October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage.Other regional events included 1) record warm January-October temperatures followed by record cold November-December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long-term drought in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year with record 24-h rainfall totals in November, 4) deadly storms and flooding in western Europe in October, 5) a summer heat wave and drought in southern Europe, 6) monsoon flooding in parts of Southeast Asia and India, 7) extreme winter conditions in Mongolia, 8) extreme long-term drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and 9) severe flooding in southern Africa.Global mean temperatures remained much above average in 2000. The average land and ocean temperature was 0.39°C above the 1880-1999 long-term mean, continuing a trend to warmer-than-average temperatures that made the 1990s the warmest decade on record. While the persistence of La Niña conditions in 2000 was associated with somewhat cooler temperatures in the Tropics, temperatures in the extratropics remained near record levels. Land surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were notably warmer than normal, with annually averaged anomalies greater than 2°C in parts of Alaska, Canada, Asia, and northern Europe.

Long term variability of B supergiant winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Massa, Derck L.

1995-01-01

The object of this observing proposal was to sample wind variability in B supergiants on a daily basis over a period of several days in order to determine the time scale with which density variability occurs in their winds. Three stars were selected for this project: 69 Cyg (B0 Ib), HD 164402 (B0 Ib), and HD 47240 (B1 Ib). Three grey scale representations of the Si IV lambda lambda 1400 doublet in each star are attached. In these figures, time (in days) increases upward, and the wavelength (in terms of velocity relative to the rest wavelength of the violet component of the doublet) is the abscissa. The spectra are normalized by a minimum absorption (maximum flux) template, so that all changes appear as absorptions. As a result of these observations, we can now state with some certainty that typical B supergiants develop significant wind inhomogeneities with recurrence times of a few days, and that some of these events show signs of strong temporal coherence.

Cognitive correlates of long-term cannabis use in Costa Rican men.

PubMed

Fletcher, J M; Page, J B; Francis, D J; Copeland, K; Naus, M J; Davis, C M; Morris, R; Krauskopf, D; Satz, P

1996-11-01

Cognitive correlates of long-term cannabis use have been elusive. We tested the hypothesis that long-term cannabis use is associated with deficits in short term memory, working memory, and attention in a literate, westernized culture (Costa Rica) in which the effects of cannabis use can be isolated. Two cohorts of long-term cannabis users and nonusers were studied. Within each cohort, users and nonusers were comparable in age and socioeconomic status. Polydrug users and users who tested positive for the use of cannabis at the time of cognitive assessment after a 72-hour abstention period were excluded. The older cohort (whose age was approximately 45 years) had consumed cannabis for an average of 34 years, and comprised 17 users and 30 nonusers, who had been recruited in San José, Costa Rica, and had been observed since 1973. The younger cohort (whose age was approximately 28 years) had consumed cannabis for an average of 8 years, and comprised 37 users and 49 nonusers. Short-term memory, working memory, and attentional skills were measured in each subject. Older long-term users performed worse than older nonusers on 2 short-term memory tests involving learning lists of words. In addition, older long-term users performed worse than older nonusers on selective and divided attention tasks associated with working memory. No notable differences were apparent between younger users and nonusers. Long-term cannabis use was associated with disruption of short-term memory, working memory, and attentional skills in older long-term cannabis users.

Analysis of the Variability of Poor Visibility Events in North and Central United Arab Emirates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aldababseh, Amal; Temimi, Marouane

2016-12-01

Good visibility is essential for the safety of ground transportation and aviation sectors. Degradation in visibility can occur during wet or dry conditions and can therefore be a proxy for air pollution and atmospheric conditions. Moreover, visibility indicates the long-term impact on human health and climate and the relationship with local atmospheric pollution. The major factors triggering the degradation of visibility can be inferred by analyzing visibility long-term trends. In the UAE, we expect that the unprecedented growth in urban development and the aviation sector has impacted visibility records. This study is the first attempt to thoroughly investigate temporal and spatial variations in poor visibility measurements in the UAE and at four different visibility observation levels; less than 5000m, 2500m, 1000m and 100m, as well as to analyze the correlation between poor visibility measurements and different meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air temperature, wind direction and speed) under two weather conditions; wet and dry. Results show that eliminating all meteorological conditions (fog, mist, haze, and precipitation and dust) does not change the overall decreasing trend in visibility, this suggests that the changes in the air quality might be responsible for the long-term visibility degradation. The decreasing trends in visibility vary from the different major cities in the UAE. All the meteorological parameters studied are significantly related to visibility, indicating the existence of complex mechanisms (physical and chemical) that affect the visibility in the atmosphere. Visibility is positively correlated to relative humidity and wind direction, however, it is negatively correlated with temperature, wind speed and dew point. This is possibly related to the weather systems in summer and winter. In summer the presence of synoptic systems along with the very high temperature, low pressure, very high humidity, and very high wind speed due to the Shamal often lead to low visibility, whereas in winter the relatively high wind speed suggests more efficient diffusion conditions and dilutes pollutions and dust particulates to low concentration, with lower temperature and limited precipitation favors high visibility.

Stable near-surface ocean salinity stratifications due to evaporation observed during STRASSE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asher, William E.; Jessup, Andrew T.; Clark, Dan

2014-05-01

Under conditions with a large solar flux and low wind speed, a stably stratified warm layer forms at the ocean surface. Evaporation can then lead to an increase in salinity in the warm layer. A large temperature gradient will decrease density enough to counter the density increase caused by the salinity increase, forming a stable positive salinity anomaly at the surface. If these positive salinity anomalies are large in terms of the change in salinity from surface to the base of the gradient, if their areal coverage is a significant fraction of the satellite footprint, and if they persist long enough to be in the satellite field of view, they could be relevant for calibration and validation of L-band microwave salinity measurements. A towed, surface-following profiler was deployed from the N/O Thalassa during the Subtropical Atlantic Surface Salinity Experiment (STRASSE). The profiler measured temperature and conductivity in the surface ocean at depths of 10, 50, and 100 cm. The measurements show that positive salinity anomalies are common at the ocean surface for wind speeds less than 4 m s-1 when the average daily insolation is >300 W m-2 and the sea-to-air latent heat flux is greater than zero. A semiempirical model predicts the observed dependence of measured anomalies on environmental conditions. However, the model results and the field data suggest that these ocean surface salinity anomalies are not large enough in terms of the salinity difference to significantly affect microwave radiometric measurements of salinity.

Surface temperature patterns in complex terrain: Daily variations and long-term change in the central Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lundquist, J.D.; Cayan, D.R.

2007-01-01

A realistic description of how temperatures vary with elevation is crucial for ecosystem studies and for models of basin-scale snowmelt and spring streamflow. This paper explores surface temperature variability using temperature data from an array of 37 sensors, called the Yosemite network, which traverses both slopes of the Sierra Nevada in the vicinity of Yosemite National Park, California. These data indicate that a simple lapse rate is often a poor description of the spatial temperature structure. Rather, the spatial pattern of temperature over the Yosemite network varies considerably with synoptic conditions. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) were used to identify the dominant spatial temperature patterns and how they vary in time. Temporal variations of these surface temperature patterns were correlated with large-scale weather conditions, as described by National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis data. Regression equations were used to downscale larger-scale weather parameters, such as Reanalysis winds and pressure, to the surface temperature structure over the Yosemite network. These relationships demonstrate that strong westerly winds are associated with relatively warmer temperatures on the east slope and cooler temperatures on the west slope of the Sierra, and weaker westerly winds are associated with the opposite pattern. Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2005 indicate weakening westerlies over this time period, a trend leading to relatively cooler temperatures on the east slope over decadal timescale's. This trend also appears in long-term observations and demonstrates the need to consider topographic effects when examining long-term changes in mountain regions. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

Spatio-temporal modelling of wind speed variations and extremes in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rychlik, Igor; Mao, Wengang

2018-02-01

The wind speed variability in the North Atlantic has been successfully modelled using a spatio-temporal transformed Gaussian field. However, this type of model does not correctly describe the extreme wind speeds attributed to tropical storms and hurricanes. In this study, the transformed Gaussian model is further developed to include the occurrence of severe storms. In this new model, random components are added to the transformed Gaussian field to model rare events with extreme wind speeds. The resulting random field is locally stationary and homogeneous. The localized dependence structure is described by time- and space-dependent parameters. The parameters have a natural physical interpretation. To exemplify its application, the model is fitted to the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data set. The model is applied to compute long-term wind speed distributions and return values, e.g., 100- or 1000-year extreme wind speeds, and to simulate random wind speed time series at a fixed location or spatio-temporal wind fields around that location.

Effects of Wind Turbine Noise on Self-Reported and Objective Measures of Sleep.

PubMed

Michaud, David S; Feder, Katya; Keith, Stephen E; Voicescu, Sonia A; Marro, Leonora; Than, John; Guay, Mireille; Denning, Allison; Murray, Brian J; Weiss, Shelly K; Villeneuve, Paul J; van den Berg, Frits; Bower, Tara

2016-01-01

To investigate the association between self-reported and objective measures of sleep and wind turbine noise (WTN) exposure. The Community Noise and Health Study, a cross-sectional epidemiological study, included an in-house computer-assisted interview and sleep pattern monitoring over a 7 d period. Outdoor WTN levels were calculated following international standards for conditions that typically approximate the highest long-term average levels at each dwelling. Study data were collected between May and September 2013 from adults, aged 18-79 y (606 males, 632 females) randomly selected from each household and living between 0.25 and 11.22 kilometers from operational wind turbines in two Canadian provinces. Self-reported sleep quality over the past 30 d was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. Additional questions assessed the prevalence of diagnosed sleep disorders and the magnitude of sleep disturbance over the previous year. Objective measures for sleep latency, sleep efficiency, total sleep time, rate of awakening bouts, and wake duration after sleep onset were recorded using the wrist worn Actiwatch2® from a subsample of 654 participants (289 males, 365 females) for a total of 3,772 sleep nights. Participant response rate for the interview was 78.9%. Outdoor WTN levels reached 46 dB(A) with an arithmetic mean of 35.6 and a standard deviation of 7.4. Self-reported and objectively measured sleep outcomes consistently revealed no apparent pattern or statistically significant relationship to WTN levels. However, sleep was significantly influenced by other factors, including, but not limited to, the use of sleep medication, other health conditions (including sleep disorders), caffeine consumption, and annoyance with blinking lights on wind turbines. Study results do not support an association between exposure to outdoor WTN up to 46 dB(A) and an increase in the prevalence of disturbed sleep. Conclusions are based on WTN levels averaged over 1 y and, in some cases, may be strengthened with an analysis that examines sleep quality in relation to WTN levels calculated during the precise sleep period time. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Mountain erosion over decades and millennia: New insights from sediment yields and cosmogenic nuclides

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callahan, R. P.; Riebe, C. S.; Ferrier, K.

2017-12-01

For more than two decades, cosmogenic nuclides have been used to quantify catchment-wide erosion rates averaged over tens of thousands of years. These rates have been used as baselines for comparison with sediment yields averaged over decades, leading to insights on how human activities such as deforestation and agriculture have influenced the production and delivery of sediment to streams and oceans. Here we present new data from the southern Sierra Nevada, California, where sediment yields have been measured over the last ten years using sediment trapping and gauging methods. Cosmogenic nuclides measured in stream sediment reveal erosion rates that are between 13 and 400 (average = 94) times faster than erosion rates inferred from annual accumulations in sediment traps. We show that the discrepancy can be explained by extremely low sediment trapping efficiency, which leads to bias in the short-term rates due to incomplete capture of suspended sediment. Thus the short-term rates roughly agree with the long-term rates, despite intensive timber harvesting in the study catchments over the last century. This differs from results obtained in similar forested granitic catchments of Idaho, where long-term rates are more than ten times greater than short-term rates because large, rare events do not contribute to the short-term averages. Our analysis of a global database indicates that both the magnitude and sign of differences between short- and long-term average erosion rates are difficult to predict, even when the history of land use in known.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lantz, Eric; Mai, Trieu; Wiser, Ryan H.

This paper evaluates potential changes in the power system associated with sustained growth in wind generation in the United States to 35% of end-use demand by 2050; Wiser et al. (2016) evaluate societal benefits and other impacts for this same scenario. Under reference or central conditions, the analysis finds cumulative wind capacity of 404 gigawatts (GW) would be required to reach this level and drive 2050 incremental electricity rate and cumulative electric sector savings of 2% and 3% respectively, relative to a scenario with no new wind capacity additions. Greater savings are estimated under higher fossil fuel costs or withmore » greater advancements in wind technologies. Conversely, incremental costs are found when fossil fuel costs are lower than central assumptions or wind technology improvements are more-limited. Through 2030, the primary generation sources displaced by new wind capacity include natural gas and coal-fired generation. By 2050, wind could displace other renewables. Incremental new transmission infrastructure totaling 29 million megawatt-miles is estimated to be needed by 2050. In conjunction with related societal benefits, this work demonstrates that 35% wind energy by 2050 is plausible, could support enduring benefits, and could result in long-term consumer savings, if nearer-term (pre-2030) cost barriers are overcome; at the same time, these opportunities are not anticipated to be realized in their full form under 'business-as-usual' conditions.« less

Extreme bottom velocities induced by wind wave and currents in the Gulf of Gdańsk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cieślikiewicz, Witold; Dudkowska, Aleksandra; Gic-Grusza, Gabriela; Jędrasik, Jan

2017-11-01

The principal goal of this study is to get some preliminary insights about the intensity of water movement generated by wind waves, and due to the currents in the bottom waters of Gulf of Gdańsk, during severe storms. The Gulf of Gdańsk is located in the southern Baltic Sea. This paper presents the results of analysis of wave and current-induced velocities during extreme wind conditions, which are determined based on long-term historical records. The bottom velocity fields originated from wind wave and wind currents, during analysed extreme wind events, are computed independently of each other. The long-term wind wave parameters for the Baltic Sea region are derived from the 44-year hindcast wave database generated in the framework of the project HIPOCAS funded by the European Union. The output from the numerical wave model WAM provides the boundary conditions for the model SWAN operating in high-resolution grid covering the area of the Gulf of Gdańsk. Wind current velocities are calculated with the M3D hydrodynamic model developed in the Institute of Oceanography of the University of Gdańsk based on the POM model. The three dimensional current fields together with trajectories of particle tracers spreading out of bottom boundary layer are modelled, and the calculated fields of bottom velocities are presented in the form of 2D maps. During northerly winds, causing in the Gulf of Gdańsk extreme waves and most significant wind-driven circulation, the wave-induced bottom velocities are greater than velocities due to currents. The current velocities in the bottom layer appeared to be smaller by an order of magnitude than the wave-induced bottom orbital velocities. Namely, during most severe northerly storms analysed, current bottom velocities ranged about 0.1-0.15 m/s, while the root mean square of wave-induced near-seabed velocities reached maximum values of up to 1.4 m/s in the southern part of Gulf of Gdańsk.

76 FR 48130 - Certain Pasta From Italy: Preliminary Results of the 14th (2009) Countervailing Duty...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-08

... rate versus variable interest rate), the maturity of the loan (e.g., short-term versus long-term), and... were received. Benchmarks for Long-Term Loans and Discount Rates Pursuant to 19 CFR 351.505(a), the... using the national average cost of long-term, fixed-rate loans pursuant to 19 CFR 351.524(d)(3)(B...

Improvement of AEP Predictions Using Diurnal CFD Modelling with Site-Specific Stability Weightings Provided from Mesoscale Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hristov, Y.; Oxley, G.; Žagar, M.

2014-06-01

The Bolund measurement campaign, performed by Danish Technical University (DTU) Wind Energy Department (also known as RISØ), provided significant insight into wind flow modeling over complex terrain. In the blind comparison study several modelling solutions were submitted with the vast majority being steady-state Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approaches with two equation k-epsilon turbulence closure. This approach yielded the most accurate results, and was identified as the state-of-the-art tool for wind turbine generator (WTG) micro-siting. Based on the findings from Bolund, further comparison between CFD and field measurement data has been deemed essential in order to improve simulation accuracy for turbine load and long-term Annual Energy Production (AEP) estimations. Vestas Wind Systems A/S is a major WTG original equipment manufacturer (OEM) with an installed base of over 60GW in over 70 countries accounting for 19% of the global installed base. The Vestas Performance and Diagnostic Centre (VPDC) provides online live data to more than 47GW of these turbines allowing a comprehensive comparison between modelled and real-world energy production data. In previous studies, multiple sites have been simulated with a steady neutral CFD formulation for the atmospheric surface layer (ASL), and wind resource (RSF) files have been generated as a base for long-term AEP predictions showing significant improvement over predictions performed with the industry standard linear WAsP tool. In this study, further improvements to the wind resource file generation with CFD are examined using an unsteady diurnal cycle approach with a full atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) formulation, with the unique stratifications throughout the cycle weighted according to mesoscale simulated sectorwise stability frequencies.

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE PAGES

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina; ...

2015-11-06

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

Observed and modeled patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the structure of the trade-wind layer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nuijens, Louise; Medeiros, Brian; Sandu, Irina

We present patterns of covariability between low-level cloudiness and the trade-wind boundary layer structure using long-term measurements at a site representative of dynamical regimes with moderate subsidence or weak ascent. We compare these with ECMWF’s Integrated Forecast System and 10 CMIP5 models. By using single-time step output at a single location, we find that models can produce a fairly realistic trade-wind layer structure in long-term means, but with unrealistic variability at shorter-time scales. The unrealistic variability in modeled cloudiness near the lifting condensation level (LCL) is due to stronger than observed relationships with mixed-layer relative humidity (RH) and temperature stratificationmore » at the mixed-layer top. Those relationships are weak in observations, or even of opposite sign, which can be explained by a negative feedback of convection on cloudiness. Cloudiness near cumulus tops at the tradewind inversion instead varies more pronouncedly in observations on monthly time scales, whereby larger cloudiness relates to larger surface winds and stronger trade-wind inversions. However, these parameters appear to be a prerequisite, rather than strong controlling factors on cloudiness, because they do not explain submonthly variations in cloudiness. Models underestimate the strength of these relationships and diverge in particular in their responses to large-scale vertical motion. No model stands out by reproducing the observed behavior in all respects. As a result, these findings suggest that climate models do not realistically represent the physical processes that underlie the coupling between trade-wind clouds and their environments in present-day climate, which is relevant for how we interpret modeled cloud feedbacks.« less

[Analysis of acid rain characteristics of Lin'an Regional Background Station using long-term observation data].

PubMed

Li, Zheng-Quan; Ma, Hao; Mao, Yu-Ding; Feng, Tao

2014-02-01

Using long-term observation data of acid rain at Lin'an Regional Background Station (Lin'an RBS), this paper studied the interannual and monthly variations of acid rain, the reasons for the variations, and the relationships between acid rain and meteorological factors. The results showed that interannual variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS had a general increasing trend in which there were two obvious intensifying processes and two distinct weakening processes, during the period ranging from 1985 to 2012. In last two decades, the monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS indicated that rain acidity and frequency of severe acid rain were increasing but the frequency of weak acid rain was decreasing when moving towards bilateral side months of July. Acid rain occurrence was affected by rainfall intensity, wind speed and wind direction. High frequency of severe acid rain and low frequency of weak acid rain were on days with drizzle, but high frequency of weak acid rain and low frequency of severe acid rain occurred on rainstorm days. With wind speed upgrading, the frequency of acid rain and the proportion of severe acid rain were declining, the pH value of precipitation was reducing too. Another character is that daily dominant wind direction of weak acid rain majorly converged in S-W section ,however that of severe acid rain was more likely distributed in N-E section. The monthly variation of acid rain at Lin'an RBS was mainly attributed to precipitation variation, the increasing and decreasing of monthly incoming wind from SSE-WSW and NWN-ENE sections of wind direction. The interannual variation of acid rain could be due to the effects of energy consumption raising and significant green policies conducted in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanghai.

Potential for a Danish power system using wind energy generators, solar cells and storage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blegaa, S.; Christiansen, G.

1981-10-01

Performance characteristics of a combined solar/wind power system equipped with storage and an unspecified back-up power source are studied on the basis of meteorological data in Denmark from 1959-1972. A model for annual production and storage from wind/solar installations is presented, assuming 12% efficiency for the solar cells and various power coefficients of the windmills, in addition to long and short-term storage. Noting that no correlation between wind and solar energy availability was found, and a constant ratio of 60% wind/40% solar was determined to be the optimum mix for large scale power production without taking into consideration the variations among years. It is concluded that 80-90% of the total Danish electrical load can be covered by solar/wind systems, and 100% may be possible with the addition of pumped hydroelectric storage.

Data-driven quantification of the effect of wind on athletics performance.

PubMed

Moinat, M; Fabius, O; Emanuel, K S

2018-06-11

So far, the relationship between wind and athletics performance has been studied mainly for 100 m sprint, based on simulation of biomechanical models, requiring several assumptions. In this study, this relationship is quantified empirically for all five horizontal jump and sprint events where wind is measured, with freely available competition results. After systematic scraping several elite and sub-elite results sites, the obtained results (n = 150,169) were filtered and matched to athletes. A quadratic mixed effects model with athlete and season as random effects was applied to express the influence of wind velocity on performance in each event. Whether this effect differs with performance level was investigated by applying the model on subgroups based on performance level. In the fitted quadratic model, the linear coefficients were significant (p < .001) for all events; the quadratic coefficients were significant for all events (p < .001) except long jump (p = .138). A 2.0 m s -1 tail wind provides an average advantage of 0.125, 0.140 and 0.146-s for the 100, 200 and 100/110 m hurdles, respectively, and an advantage of 0.058 and 0.102 m for long jump and triple jump, respectively. Performance level had a significant effect on the wind influence only for 100 m (p < .001). Amateur athletes (∼13 s) benefit 69% more from a 2.0 m s -1 tail wind than elite athletes (∼10 s). Practical formulas are presented for each event. These can easily be used correct results for wind speed, allowing better talent scouting and championship selection. This study demonstrates the efficacy of answering scientific questions empirically, through freely available data.

Jovian Vortices and Barges: HST observations 1994-1998

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morales, R.; Sanchez-Lavega, A.; Lecacheux, J.; Colas, F.; Miyazaki, I.

2000-10-01

We have used the HST-WFPC2 archived images of Jupiter in the period 1994-1998 to study the zonal and meridional distributions, long-term motions, lifetimes, interactions and other properties of the vortices larger than 2 degrees. The latitude range covered spans from +75 to -75 degrees. High-resolution images obtained with the 890nm, 410nm and 953nm wavelength filters allowed us to make a morphological classification based on their appearance in each filter. The vortices are anticyclones, and their long-term motions have been completed with ground-based images and are compared to the mean Jovian zonal wind profile. Significant differences are found between the vortex velocities and the mean zonal winds. Some vortices exhibited important drift changes in short period times. We analyze a possible correlation between their size and zonal wind velocity. On the other hand, the "barges" lie in the cyclone domains of the wind-profile and have been identified in several latitudes. Their latitudinal size is similar in all of them (typically 1.6 degrees) but their longitudinal size ranges from 1 to 32 degrees. We discuss the temporal evolution of some of these cyclonic regions. The Spanish team was supported by Gobierno Vasco PI 034/97. The French team was supported by the "Programme National de Planetologie." RM acknowledges a fellowship from Universidad Pais Vasco.

Solving the Meteorological Challenges of Creating a Sustainable Energy System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquis, M.

2010-12-01

Global energy demand is projected to double from 13 TW at the start of this century to 28 TW by the middle of the century. This translates into obtaining 1000 MW (1 GW, the amount produced by an average nuclear or coal power plant) of new energy every single day for the next 40 years. The U.S. Department of Energy has conducted three feasibility studies in the last two years identifying the costs, challenges, impacts, and benefits of generating large portions of the nation’s electricity from wind and solar energy, in the new two decades. The 20% Wind by 2030 report found that the nation could meet one-fifth of its electricity demand from wind energy by 2030. The second report, the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study, considered similar costs, challenges, and benefits, but considered 20% wind energy in the Eastern Interconnect only, with a target date of 2024. The third report, the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, considered the operational impact of up to 35% penetration of wind, photovoltaics (PVs) and, concentrating solar power (CSP) on the power system operated by the WestConnect group, with a target date of 2017. All three studies concluded that it is technically feasible to obtain these high penetration levels of renewable energy, but that increases in the balancing area cooperation or coordination, increased utilization of transmission and building of transmission in some cases, and improved weather forecasts are needed. Current energy systems were designed for dispatchable fuels, such as coal, natural gas and nuclear energy. Fitting weather-driven renewable energy into today's energy system is like fitting a square peg into a round hole. If society chooses to meet a significant portion of new energy demand from weather-driven renewable energy, such as wind and solar energy, a number of obstacles must be overcome. Some of these obstacles are meteorological and climatological issues that are amenable to scientific research. For variable renewable energy sources to reach high penetration levels, electric system operators and utilities need better atmo¬spheric observations, models, and forecasts. Current numerical weather prediction models have not been optimized to help the nation use renewable energy. Improved meteorological observations (e.g., wind turbine hub-height wind speeds, surface direct and diffuse solar radiation), as well as observations through a deeper layer of the atmosphere for assimilation into NWP models, are needed. Particularly urgent is the need for improved forecasts of ramp events. Longer-term predictions of renewable resources, on the seasonal to decadal scale, are also needed. Improved understanding of the variability and co-variability of wind and solar energy, as well as their correlations with large-scale climate drivers, would assist decision-makers in long-term planning. This talk with discuss the feasibility and benefits of developing enhanced weather forecasts and climate information specific to the needs of a growing renewable energy infrastructure.

The High-latitude Electric Potential Disparity and Hemispheric Differences in the Upper Thermospheric Neutral Wind Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foerster, M.; Haaland, S.; Cnossen, I.

2014-12-01

We present statistical studies of both the high-latitude ionospheric potential pattern deduced from long-term observations of the Cluster Electron Drift Instrument (EDI) and upper thermospheric neutral wind circulation patterns in the Northern (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) obtained from accelerometers on board of low-Earth orbiting satellites like CHAMP during about the same time interval. The cross-polar cap potential difference during southward IMF conditions appears to be on average slightly (~7%) larger in the SH compared with the NH, while the neutral wind magnitude and vorticity amplitude are mostly larger in the NH than in the SH, especially during high solar activity conditions. We attribute such behaviour to peculiarities of the hemispheres due to the non-dipolar portions of Earth's main magnetic field that constitute substantial differences between the geomagnetic field configurations of both hemispheres. They cause in particular different magnetic field flux densities in the opposite polar regions and different offsets of the invariant poles with respect to the rotation axis of the Earth. The pole is presently displaced almost twice the distance in the SH compared to the NH, which has substantial implications for the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system under the influence of external drivers. To analyse this behaviour, we have run several numerical simulations using the first-principle Coupled Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Thermosphere (CMIT) model under various seasonal conditions. The survey of both the numerical simulation results and the observations confirm prominent asymmetries between the two hemispheres for these parameters.

A stability analysis of AVE-4 severe weather soundings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, D. L.

1982-01-01

The stability and vertical structure of an average severe storm sounding, consisting of both thermodynamic and wind vertical profiles, were investigated to determine if they could be distinguished from an average lag sounding taken 3 to 6 hours prior to severe weather occurrence. The term average is defined here to indicate the arithmetic mean of a parameter, as a function of altitude, determined from a large number of available observations taken either close to severe weather occurrence, or else more than 3 hours before it occurs. The investigative computations were also done to help determine if a severe storm forecast or index could possibly be used or developed. These mean vertical profiles of thermodynamic and wind parameters as a function of severity of the weather, determined from manually digitized radar (MDR) categories are presented. Profile differences and stability index differences are presented along with the development of the Johnson Lag Index (JLI) which is determined entirely upon environmental vertical parameter differences between conditions 3 hours prior to severe weather, and severe weather itself.

Experimental Marvin Windshield Effects on Precipitation Records in Leadville, Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarrett, Robert D.; Crow, Loren W.

1988-01-01

An evaluation of the Leadville, Colorado, precipitation records that include a reported record-breaking storm (and flood) at higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains has indicated that the use of an experimental Marvin windshield (designed to decrease the effects of wind on precipitation-gage catchment of snow during winter) resulted in substantially overregistered summer precipitation for 1919 to 1938. The July monthly precipitation for these years was over-registered by an average of 157 percent of the long-term July monthly precipitation at Leadville. The cause of the overregistration of precipitation was the almost 4-foot-top-diameter cone-shaped windshield that had the effect of 'funneling' hail and rain splash into the rain gage. Other nearby precipitation gages, which did not use this Marvin windshield, did not have this trend of increased precipitation for the same period. Streamflow records from the Leadville area also do not indicate an increase in streamflow from 1919 to 1938.

Densities and temperatures in the polar thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gardner, L. J.

1977-01-01

The atomic oxygen density at 120 km, the 630 nm airglow temperature, the helium density at 300 km and the molecular nitrogen density near 400 km were examined as functions of geomagnetic latitude, geomagnetic time, season and magnetic activity level. The long-term averages of these quantities were examined so as to provide a baseline of these thermospheric parameters from which future studies may be made for comparison. The hours around magnetic noon are characterized by low temperatures, high 0 and He densities, and median nitrogen densities. The pre-midnight hours exhibit high temperatures, high He density, low nitrogen density and median 0 densities. The post-midnight sector shows low 0 and He densities, median temperatures and high nitrogen densities. These results are compared to recent models and observations and are discussed with respect to their causes due to divergence of the wind field and energy deposition in the thermosphere.

Long-Term Retrospective Clinical and Radiographic Follow-up of 205 Brånemark System Mk III TiUnite Implants Submitted to Either Immediate or Delayed Loading.

PubMed

Imburgia, Mario; Del Fabbro, Massimo

2015-10-01

Studies are needed to evaluate long-term performance of immediately loaded implants with moderately rough surface. This retrospective study evaluated long-term survival and periimplant soft and hard tissue conditions in patients treated with TiUnite implants. Forty-one consecutive patients (mean age, 52.6 years) received 205 Brånemark System Mk III TiUnite implants (145 maxillary, 60 mandibular). The indication was single tooth (n = 7 implants), partial (n = 94), or full arches (n = 104). One hundred thirteen implants were immediately loaded. Cumulative survival rate (CSR) of implants was assessed. Long-term marginal bone remodeling, probing pocket depth (PPD), and periimplant mucosa conditions were assessed. Follow-up averaged 8.8 years (range, 6.6-10.6 years). Eight implants in 5 patients failed. CSR was 96.1% (implant basis) and 87.8% (patient basis) up to 10 years. At the longest follow-up, bone loss averaged 0.43 ± 1.15 mm (n = 173), PPD averaged 3.64 ± 0.74 mm, and periimplant mucosa was healthy in 74.6% of cases. Furthermore, 50.3% and 35.5% of implants scored negative for plaque and bleeding, respectively. No significant difference in CSR and hard and soft tissue conditions was found in the long term between immediately and delayed loaded implants. Implants with TiUnite surface demonstrated excellent long-term survival, marginal bone response, and soft tissue conditions, despite a nonoptimal level of oral hygiene.

Prospective memory deficits in illicit polydrug users are associated with the average long-term typical dose of ecstasy typically consumed in a single session.

PubMed

Gallagher, Denis T; Hadjiefthyvoulou, Florentia; Fisk, John E; Montgomery, Catharine; Robinson, Sarita J; Judge, Jeannie

2014-01-01

Neuroimaging evidence suggests that ecstasy-related reductions in SERT densities relate more closely to the number of tablets typically consumed per session rather than estimated total lifetime use. To better understand the basis of drug related deficits in prospective memory (p.m.) we explored the association between p.m. and average long-term typical dose and long-term frequency of use. Study 1: Sixty-five ecstasy/polydrug users and 85 nonecstasy users completed an event-based, a short-term and a long-term time-based p.m. task. Study 2: Study 1 data were merged with outcomes on the same p.m. measures from a previous study creating a combined sample of 103 ecstasy/polydrug users, 38 cannabis-only users, and 65 nonusers of illicit drugs. Study 1: Ecstasy/polydrug users had significant impairments on all p.m. outcomes compared with nonecstasy users. Study 2: Ecstasy/polydrug users were impaired in event-based p.m. compared with both other groups and in long-term time-based p.m. compared with nonillicit drug users. Both drug using groups did worse on the short-term time-based p.m. task compared with nonusers. Higher long-term average typical dose of ecstasy was associated with poorer performance on the event and short-term time-based p.m. tasks and accounted for unique variance in the two p.m. measures over and above the variance associated with cannabis and cocaine use. The typical ecstasy dose consumed in a single session is an important predictor of p.m. impairments with higher doses reflecting increasing tolerance giving rise to greater p.m. impairment.

Ecological restoration and recovery in the wind-blown sand hazard areas of northern China: relationship between soil water and carrying capacity for vegetation in the Tengger Desert.

PubMed

Li, XingRong; Zhang, ZhiShan; Tan, HuiJuan; Gao, YanHong; Liu, LiChao; Wang, XingPing

2014-05-01

The main prevention and control area for wind-blown sand hazards in northern China is about 320000 km(2) in size and includes sandlands to the east of the Helan Mountain and sandy deserts and desert-steppe transitional regions to the west of the Helan Mountain. Vegetation recovery and restoration is an important and effective approach for constraining wind-blown sand hazards in these areas. After more than 50 years of long-term ecological studies in the Shapotou region of the Tengger Desert, we found that revegetation changed the hydrological processes of the original sand dune system through the utilization and space-time redistribution of soil water. The spatiotemporal dynamics of soil water was significantly related to the dynamics of the replanted vegetation for a given regional precipitation condition. The long-term changes in hydrological processes in desert areas also drive replanted vegetation succession. The soil water carrying capacity of vegetation and the model for sand fixation by revegetation in aeolian desert areas where precipitation levels are less than 200 mm are also discussed.

Long-term average spectrum in screening of voice quality in speech: untrained male university students.

PubMed

Leino, Timo

2009-11-01

Voice quality has mainly been studied in trained speakers, singers, and dysphonic patients. Few studies have concerned ordinary untrained university students' voices. In light of earlier studies of professional voice users, it was hypothesized that good, poor, and intermediate voices would be distinguishable on the basis of long-term average spectrum characteristics. In the present study, voice quality of 50 Finnish vocally untrained male university students was studied perceptually and using long-term average spectrum analysis of text reading samples of one minute duration. Equivalent sound level (Leq) of text reading was also measured. According to the results, the good and ordinary voices differed from the poor ones in their relatively higher sound level in the frequency range of 1-3 kHz and a prominent peak at 3-4 kHz. Good voices, however, did not differ from the ordinary voices in terms of the characteristics of the long-term average spectrum (LTAS). The strength of the peak at 3-4 kHz and the voice-quality scores correlated weakly but significantly. Voice quality and alpha ratio (level difference above and below 1 kHz) correlated likewise. Leq was significantly higher in the students with good and ordinary voices than in those with poor voices. The connections between Leq, voice quality, and the formation of the peak at 3-4 kHz warrant further studies.

Measurement of the vertical gradient of the semidiurnal tidal wind phase in winter at the 95 km level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schminder, R.; Kurschner, D.

1984-05-01

When supplemented by absolute reflection height measurements, low frequency wind measurements in the 90-100 km height range become truly competitive in comparison with the more widely used radar meteor wind observations. For example, height profiles of the wind parameters in the so-called meteor zone can be obtained due to the considerable interdiurnal variability of the average nighttime reflection heights controlled by geomagnetic activity. The phase of the semidiurnal tidal wind is particularly height-dependent. The measured vertical gradient of 1/4 h/km in winter corresponds to a vertical wavelength of about 50 km. Wind measurements in the upper atmosphere, at heights between 90 and 100 km, were carried out at the Collm Geophysical Observatory of Karl Marx University Leipzig for a number of years. These measurements use the closely-spaced receiver method and three measuring paths, on 179, 227, and 272 kHz. They take place every day between sunset and sunrise, i.e., nightly. A night in this sense may last as long as 18 hours in winter. Both the measurements and their evaluation are completely automatic, and the prevailing winds and tides are separated.

Measurement of the Vertical Gradient of the Semidiurnal Tidal Wind Phase in Winter at the 95 Km Level

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schminder, R.; Kurschner, D.

1984-01-01

When supplemented by absolute reflection height measurements, low frequency wind measurements in the 90-100 km height range become truly competitive in comparison with the more widely used radar meteor wind observations. For example, height profiles of the wind parameters in the so-called meteor zone can be obtained due to the considerable interdiurnal variability of the average nighttime reflection heights controlled by geomagnetic activity. The phase of the semidiurnal tidal wind is particularly height-dependent. The measured vertical gradient of 1/4 h/km in winter corresponds to a vertical wavelength of about 50 km. Wind measurements in the upper atmosphere, at heights between 90 and 100 km, were carried out at the Collm Geophysical Observatory of Karl Marx University Leipzig for a number of years. These measurements use the closely-spaced receiver method and three measuring paths, on 179, 227, and 272 kHz. They take place every day between sunset and sunrise, i.e., nightly. A night in this sense may last as long as 18 hours in winter. Both the measurements and their evaluation are completely automatic, and the prevailing winds and tides are separated.

Long Term Missions at the Sun-Earth Libration Point L1: ACE, SOHO, and WIND

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, Craig E.

2011-01-01

Three heliophysics missions - the Solar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and the Global Geoscience WIND - have been orbiting the Sun-Earth interior libration point L1 continuously since 1996, 1997, and 2004, respectively. ACE and WIND (both NASA missions) and SOHO (an ESA-NASA joint mission) are all operated from the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Flight Dynamics Facility. While ACE and SOHO have been dedicated libration point orbiters since their launches, WIND prior to 2004 flew a remarkable 10-year deep-space trajectory that featured 38 targeted lunar flybys. The L1 orbits and the mission histories of the three spacecraft are briefly reviewed, and the station-keeping techniques and orbit maneuver experience are discussed.

Comparison of Short- and Long-term Hearing Outcomes of Successful Inlay Cartilage Tympanoplasty Between Small and Large Eardrum Perforations.

PubMed

Wu, Pei-Wen; Wang, Wen-Hung; Huang, Chi-Che; Lee, Ta-Jen; Huang, Chien-Chia

2015-12-01

To compare the short- and long-term hearing outcomes after successful inlay cartilage tympanoplasty between patients with small (≤25%) and large (≥50%) eardrums perforations. This is a retrospective case series study conducted in a tertiary referral center. Twenty-five patients who underwent 27 procedures were enrolled. Their mean age was 60.26 years (range, 42 to 76 years). The mean follow-up time was 18.86 months (range, 12.30 to 35.83 months). The preoperative, initial postoperative, and long-term hearing results in patients with total repair of the eardrum were analyzed. In the small size group, the average (±standard deviation) air-bone gap (ABG) closure was 1.08±7.53 dB in the short-term and 2.33±11.56 dB in the long-term hearing examinations. There was no difference between short- and long-term ABG closure (P=0.689). In the large size group, the average ABG closure was 9.77±9.40 dB in the short-term and 16.25±6.01 dB in the long-term hearing examinations. There was a significant difference between short- and long-term ABG closure (P=0.029). Patients with large perforations have continuous hearing improvement and ABG closure for more than one year. In contrast, the short- and long-term postoperative ABGs are almost the same in patients with small perforations. More long-term postoperative follow-up of hearing results is necessary for large perforations.

Climate-tree growth models in relation to long-term growth trends of white oak in Pennsylvania

Treesearch

D. D. Davis; R. P. Long

2003-01-01

We examined long-term growth trends of white oak by comparing tree-ring chronologies developed from an old-growth stand, where the average tree age was 222 years, with a second-growth stand where average tree age was 78 years. Evaluation of basal area growth trends suggested that an anomalous decrease in basal area increment trend occurred in both stands during the...

System integration of wind and solar power in integrated assessment models: A cross-model evaluation of new approaches

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pietzcker, Robert C.; Ueckerdt, Falko; Carrara, Samuel

Mitigation-Process Integrated Assessment Models (MP-IAMs) are used to analyze long-term transformation pathways of the energy system required to achieve stringent climate change mitigation targets. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent all detailed challenges of integrating the variable renewable energies (VRE) wind and solar in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modeling approaches. In the ADVANCE project, six international modeling teams have developed new approaches to improve the representation of power sector dynamics and VRE integration in IAMs. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the last years' modeling progress and study themore » impact of VRE integration modeling on VRE deployment in IAM scenarios. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation, we first develop a framework of 18 features of power sector dynamics and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly-developed modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs to the detailed hourly-resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of features of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement with those derived from the detailed power sector model. Updating the power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar substantially increased wind and solar shares across models: Under a carbon price of 30$/tCO2 in 2020 (increasing by 5% per year), the model-average cost-minimizing VRE share over the period 2050-2100 is 62% of electricity generation, 24%-points higher than with the old model version.« less

Nourishment of perched sand dunes and the issue of erosion control in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marsh, William M.

1990-09-01

Although limited in coverage, perched sand dunes situated on high coastal bluffs are considered the most prized of Great Lakes dunes. Grand Sable Dunes on Lake Superior and Sleeping Bear Dunes on Lake Michigan are featured attractions of national lakeshores under National Park Service management. The source of sand for perched dunes is the high bluff along their lakeward edge. As onshore wind crosses the bluff, flow is accelerated upslope, resulting in greatly elevated levels of wind stress over the slope brow. On barren, sandy bluffs, wind erosion is concentrated in the brow zone, and for the Grand Sable Bluff, it averaged 1 m3/yr per linear meter along the highest sections for the period 1973 1983. This mechanism accounts for about 6,500 m3 of sand nourishment to the dunefield annually and clearly has been the predominant mechanism for the long-term development of the dunefield. However, wind erosion and dune nourishment are possible only where the bluff is denuded of plant cover by mass movements and related processes induced by wave erosion. In the Great Lakes, wave erosion and bluff retreat vary with lake levels; the nourishment of perched dunes is favored by high levels. Lake levels have been relatively high for the past 50 years, and shore erosion has become a major environmental issue leading property owners and politicians to support lake-level regulation. Trimming high water levels could reduce geomorphic activity on high bluffs and affect dune nourishment rates. Locally, nourishment also may be influenced by sediment accumulation associated with harbor protection facilities and by planting programs aimed at stabilizing dunes.

Air-mediated pollen flow from genetically modified to conventional crops.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Schurr, Frank; Tackenberg, Oliver; O'Hara, Robert B

2007-03-01

Tools for estimating pollen dispersal and the resulting gene flow are necessary to assess the risk of gene flow from genetically modified (GM) to conventional fields, and to quantify the effectiveness of measures that may prevent such gene flow. A mechanistic simulation model is presented and used to simulate pollen dispersal by wind in different agricultural scenarios over realistic pollination periods. The relative importance of landscape-related variables such as isolation distance, topography, spatial configuration of the fields, GM field size and barrier, and environmental variation are examined in order to find ways to minimize gene flow and to detect possible risk factors. The simulations demonstrated a large variation in pollen dispersal and in the predicted amount of contamination between different pollination periods. This was largely due to variation in vertical wind. As this variation in wind conditions is difficult to control through management measures, it should be carefully considered when estimating the risk of gene flow from GM crops. On average, the predicted level of gene flow decreased with increasing isolation distance and with increasing depth of the conventional field, and increased with increasing GM field size. Therefore, at a national scale and over the long term these landscape properties should be accounted for when setting regulations for controlling gene flow. However, at the level of an individual field the level of gene flow may be dominated by uncontrollable variation. Due to the sensitivity of pollen dispersal to the wind, we conclude that gene flow cannot be summarized only by the mean contamination; information about the frequency of extreme events should also be considered. The modeling approach described in this paper offers a way to predict and compare pollen dispersal and gene flow in varying environmental conditions, and to assess the effectiveness of different management measures.

Scaling forecast models for wind turbulence and wind turbine power intermittency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duran Medina, Olmo; Schmitt, Francois G.; Calif, Rudy

2017-04-01

The intermittency of the wind turbine power remains an important issue for the massive development of this renewable energy. The energy peaks injected in the electric grid produce difficulties in the energy distribution management. Hence, a correct forecast of the wind power in the short and middle term is needed due to the high unpredictability of the intermittency phenomenon. We consider a statistical approach through the analysis and characterization of stochastic fluctuations. The theoretical framework is the multifractal modelisation of wind velocity fluctuations. Here, we consider three wind turbine data where two possess a direct drive technology. Those turbines are producing energy in real exploitation conditions and allow to test our forecast models of power production at a different time horizons. Two forecast models were developed based on two physical principles observed in the wind and the power time series: the scaling properties on the one hand and the intermittency in the wind power increments on the other. The first tool is related to the intermittency through a multifractal lognormal fit of the power fluctuations. The second tool is based on an analogy of the power scaling properties with a fractional brownian motion. Indeed, an inner long-term memory is found in both time series. Both models show encouraging results since a correct tendency of the signal is respected over different time scales. Those tools are first steps to a search of efficient forecasting approaches for grid adaptation facing the wind energy fluctuations.

Average Magnetic Field Magnitude Profiles of Wind Magnetic Clouds as a Function of Closest Approach to the Clouds' Axes and Comparison to Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berdichevsky, D. B.; Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C. C.

2016-12-01

We examine the average magnetic field magnitude (|B|) within magnetic clouds (MCs) observed over the period of 1995 to July of 2015, to understand the difference between this field magnitude and the ideal (field magnitude) |B|-profiles expected from using a static, constant-α, force-free, cylindrically symmetric model for MCs (Lepping et al. 1990, denoted as the LJB model here) in general. We classify all MCs according to an objectively assigned quality, Qo (=1,2,3, for excellent, good, and poor). There are a total of 209 MCs and 124 if only Qo=1,2 cases are considered. Average normalized field with respect to closest approach (CA) is stressed where we separate cases into four CA sectors centered at 12.5%, 37.5%, 62.5%, and 87.5% of the average radius; the averaging is done on a percent-duration basis to put all cases on the same footing. By normalized field we mean that, before averaging, the |B| for each MC at each point is divided by the field magnitude estimated for the MC's axis (Bo) as determined by the LJB model. The actual averages for the 209 and 124 MC sets are compared separately to the LJB model, after an adjustment for MC expansion, which is estimated from long-term average conditions of MCs at 1 AU using a typical speed difference of 40 km/s across the average MC. The comparison is a direct difference (average observations - model) vs. time for the four sets separately. These four difference-relationships are fitted with four quadratic curves, which have very small sigmas for the fits. Interpretation of these relationships (called Quad formulae) should provide a comprehensive view of the variation of the normalized field-magnitude throughout the average MC where we expect both front and rear compression (due to solar wind interaction) to be part of its explanation. These formulae are also being considered for modifying the LJB model. This modification is expected to be used for assistance in a scheme used for forecasting the timing and magnitude of magnetic storms caused by MCs. Extensive testing of the Quad formulae shows that the formulae are quite useful in correcting individual MC field magnitude profiles, especially for the Qo=1,2 cases and especially for the first 1/3 of these MCs. However, the use of this type of |B|-correction constitutes a slight violation of the force free assumption used in the original LJB MC model