Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

PubMed

Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

2016-01-01

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE PAGES

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

2016-01-06

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Hidden long evolutionary memory in a model biochemical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Md. Zulfikar; Wingreen, Ned S.; Mukhopadhyay, Ranjan

2018-04-01

We introduce a minimal model for the evolution of functional protein-interaction networks using a sequence-based mutational algorithm, and apply the model to study neutral drift in networks that yield oscillatory dynamics. Starting with a functional core module, random evolutionary drift increases network complexity even in the absence of specific selective pressures. Surprisingly, we uncover a hidden order in sequence space that gives rise to long-term evolutionary memory, implying strong constraints on network evolution due to the topology of accessible sequence space.

Secular orbital evolution of Jupiter family comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickman, H.; Gabryszewski, R.; Wajer, P.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wójcikowski, K.; Szutowicz, S.; Valsecchi, G. B.; Morbidelli, A.

2017-02-01

Context. The issue of the long term dynamics of Jupiter family comets (JFCs) involves uncertain assumptions about the physical evolution and lifetimes of these comets. Contrary to what is often assumed, real effects of secular dynamics cannot be excluded and therefore merit investigation. Aims: We use a random sample of late heavy bombardment cometary projectiles to study the long-term dynamics of JFCs by a Monte Carlo approach. In a steady-state picture of the Jupiter family, we investigate the orbital distribution of JFCs, including rarely visited domains like retrograde orbits or orbits within the outer parts of the asteroid main belt. Methods: We integrate 100 000 objects over a maximum of 100 000 orbital revolutions including the Sun, a comet, and four giant planets. Considering the steady-state number of JFCs to be proportional to the total time spent in the respective orbital domain, we derive the capture rate based on observed JFCs with small perihelia and large nuclei. We consider a purely dynamical model and one where the nuclei are eroded by ice sublimation. Results: The JFC inclination distribution is incompatible with our erosional model. This may imply that a new type of comet evolution model is necessary. Considering that comets may live for a long time, we show that JFCs can evolve into retrograde orbits as well as asteroidal orbits in the outer main belt or Cybele regions. The steady-state capture rate into the Jupiter family is consistent with 1 × 109 scattered disk objects with diameters D > 2 km. Conclusions: Our excited scattered disk makes it difficult to explain the JFC inclination distribution, unless the physical evolution of JFCs is more intricate than assumed in standard, erosional models. Independent of this, the population size of the Jupiter family is consistent with a relatively low-mass scattered disk.

Long-term evolution of 1991 DA: A dynamically evolved extinct Halley-type comet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hahn, Gerhard; Bailey, M. E.

1992-01-01

The long-term dynamical evolution of 21 variational orbits for the intermediate-period asteroid 1991 DA was followed for up to +/-10(exp 5) years from the present. 1991 DA is close to the 2:7 resonance with Jupiter; it has avoided close encounters, within 1 AU, with this planet for at least the past 30,000 years, even at the node crossing. The future evolution typically shows no close encounters with Jupiter within at least 50,000 years. This corresponds to the mean time between node crossings with either Jupiter or Saturn. Close encounters with Saturn and Jupiter lead to a chaotic evolution for the whole ensemble, while secular perturbations cause large-amplitude swings in eccentricity and inclination (the latter covering the range 15 deg approximately less than i approximately less than 85 deg) which correlate with deep excursions of the perihelion distance to values much less than 1 AU. These variations are similar to those found in P/Machholz and a variety of other high-inclination orbits, e.g., P/Hartley-IRAS. We emphasize the connection between the orbital evolution of 1991 DA and that of Halley-type comets. If 1991 DA was once a comet, it is not surprising that it is now extinct.

Critical zone evolution and the origins of organised complexity in watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.; Pelletier, J.; Rasmussen, C.; Chorover, J.

2012-04-01

The capacity of the landscape to store and transmit water is the result of a historical trajectory of landscape, soil and vegetation development, much of which is driven by hydrology itself. Progress in geomorphology and pedology has produced models of surface and sub-surface evolution in soil-mantled uplands. These dissected, denuding modeled landscapes are emblematic of the kinds of dissipative self-organized flow structures whose hydrologic organization may also be understood by low-dimensional hydrologic models. They offer an exciting starting-point for examining the mapping between the long-term controls on landscape evolution and the high-frequency hydrologic dynamics. Here we build on recent theoretical developments in geomorphology and pedology to try to understand how the relative rates of erosion, sediment transport and soil development in a landscape determine catchment storage capacity and the relative dominance of runoff process, flow pathways and storage-discharge relationships. We do so by using a combination of landscape evolution models, hydrologic process models and data from a variety of sources, including the University of Arizona Critical Zone Observatory. A challenge to linking the landscape evolution and hydrologic model representations is the vast differences in the timescales implicit in the process representations. Furthermore the vast array of processes involved makes parameterization of such models an enormous challenge. The best data-constrained geomorphic transport and soil development laws only represent hydrologic processes implicitly, through the transport and weathering rate parameters. In this work we propose to avoid this problem by identifying the relationship between the landscape and soil evolution parameters and macroscopic climate and geological controls. These macroscopic controls (such as the aridity index) have two roles: 1) they express the water and energy constraints on the long-term evolution of the landscape system, and 2) they bound the range of plausible short-term hydroclimatic regimes that may drive a particular landscape's hydrologic dynamics. To ensure that the hydrologic dynamics implicit in the evolutionary parameters are compatible with the dynamics observed in the hydrologic modeling, a set of consistency checks based on flow process dominance are developed.

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Most spatial models of host–parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. PMID:27798295

Spatial evolutionary epidemiology of spreading epidemics.

PubMed

Lion, S; Gandon, S

2016-10-26

Most spatial models of host-parasite interactions either neglect the possibility of pathogen evolution or consider that this process is slow enough for epidemiological dynamics to reach an equilibrium on a fast timescale. Here, we propose a novel approach to jointly model the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured host and pathogen populations. Starting from a multi-strain epidemiological model, we use a combination of spatial moment equations and quantitative genetics to analyse the dynamics of mean transmission and virulence in the population. A key insight of our approach is that, even in the absence of long-term evolutionary consequences, spatial structure can affect the short-term evolution of pathogens because of the build-up of spatial differentiation in mean virulence. We show that spatial differentiation is driven by a balance between epidemiological and genetic effects, and this quantity is related to the effect of kin competition discussed in previous studies of parasite evolution in spatially structured host populations. Our analysis can be used to understand and predict the transient evolutionary dynamics of pathogens and the emergence of spatial patterns of phenotypic variation. © 2016 The Author(s).

Yardang evolution from maturity to demise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.

2015-07-01

Yardangs are enigmatic wind-parallel ridges sculpted by aeolian processes that are found extensively in arid environments on Earth and Mars. No general theory exists to explain the long-term evolution of yardangs, curtailing modeling of landscape evolution and dynamics of suspended sediment release. We present a hypothesis of yardang evolution using relative rates of sediment flux, interyardang corridor downcutting, yardang denudation, substrate erodibility, and substrate clast content. To develop and sustain yardangs, corridor downcutting must exceed yardang vertical denudation and deflation. However, erosion of substrate yields considerable quantities of sediment that shelters corridors, slowing downcutting. We model the evolution of yardangs through various combinations of rates and substrate compositions, demonstrating the life span, suspended sediment release, and resulting landscape evolution. We find that yardangs have a distinct and predictable evolution, with inevitable demise and unexpectedly dynamic and autogenic erosion rates driven by subtle differences in substrate clast composition.

Recombination and phenotype evolution dynamics of Helicobacter pylori in colonized hosts.

PubMed

Shafiee, Ahmad; Amini, Massoud; Emamirad, Hassan; Abadi, Amin Talebi Bezmin

2016-07-01

The ample genetic diversity and variability of Helicobater pylori, and therefore its phenotypic evolution, relate not only to frequent mutation and selection but also to intra-specific recombination. Webb and Blaser applied a mathematical model to distinguish the role of selection and mutation for Lewis antigen phenotype evolution during long-term gastric colonization in infected animal hosts (mice and gerbils). To investigate the role of recombination in Lewis antigen phenotype evolution, we have developed a prior population dynamic by adding recombination term to the model. We simulate and interpret the new model simulation's results with a comparative analysis of biological aspects. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) the models and consequently the hosts with higher recombination rate require a longer time for stabilization; and (ii) recombination and mutation have opposite effects on the size of H. pylori populations with phenotypes in the range of the most-fit ones (i.e. those that have a selective advantage) due to natural selection, although both can increase phenotypic diversity.

Morphosedimentary evolution of carbonate sandy beaches at decadal scale : case study in Reunion Island , Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabot, Marie-Myriam; Pennober, Gwenaelle; Suanez, Serge; Troadec, Roland; Delacourt, Christophe

2017-04-01

Global change introduce a lot of uncertainties concerning future trajectory of beaches by directly or indirectly modifying major driving factors. An improved understanding of the past shoreline evolution may help for anticipate future coastline response. However, in tropical environment, studies concerning carbonate beaches dynamics are scarce compared to open sandy beaches. Consequently, coral reef protected beaches morphological adjustment is still poorly understood and long-term evolution rate are poorly quantified in these specific environment. In this context, La Reunion Island, insular department of France located in Indian Ocean, constitute a favoured laboratory. This high volcanic island possesses 25 km of carbonate beaches which experience hydrodynamic forcing specific from tropical environment: cyclonic swell during summer and long period swell during winter. Because of degraded coral reef health and high anthropogenic pressure, 50% of the beaches are in erosion since 1970s. Beach survey has been conducted since 1990s by scientist and are now encompassed as pilot site within a French observatory network which guarantee long-term survey with high resolution observational techniques. Thus, La Reunion Island is one of the rare carbonate beach to be surveyed since 20 years. This study aims to examined and quantify beach response at decadal scale on carbonate sandy beaches of Reunion Island. The study focus on 12 km of beaches from Cap Champagne to the Passe de Trois-Bassins. The analyze of 15 beach profile data originated from historical and DGPS beach topographic data confirm long term trend to erosion. Sediment lost varies between 0.5 and 2 m3.yr-1 since 1998. However longshore current have led to accretion of some part of beach compartment with rate of 0.7 to 1.6 m3.yr-1. Wave climate was examined from in-situ measurement over 15 years and show that extreme waves associated with tropical cyclones and long period swell play a major role in beach dynamics. Swell frequency and intensity are both determinant for beach evolution.

Radionuclide Incorporation and Long Term Performance of Apatite Waste Forms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jianwei; Lian, Jie; Gao, Fei

2016-01-04

This project aims to combines state-of-the-art experimental and characterization techniques with atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. With an initial focus on long-lived I-129 and other radionuclides such as Cs, Sr in apatite structure, specific research objectives include the atomic scale understanding of: (1) incorporation behavior of the radionuclides and their effects on the crystal chemistry and phase stability; (2) stability and microstructure evolution of designed waste forms under coupled temperature and radiation environments; (3) incorporation and migration energetics of radionuclides and release behaviors as probed by DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations;more » and (4) chemical durability as measured in dissolution experiments for long term performance evaluation and model validation.« less

Convergent Metabolic Specialization through Distinct Evolutionary Paths in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PubMed Central

Johansen, Helle Krogh; Molin, Søren

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Evolution by natural selection under complex and dynamic environmental conditions occurs through intricate and often counterintuitive trajectories affecting many genes and metabolic solutions. To study short- and long-term evolution of bacteria in vivo, we used the natural model system of cystic fibrosis (CF) infection. In this work, we investigated how and through which trajectories evolution of Pseudomonas aeruginosa occurs when migrating from the environment to the airways of CF patients, and specifically, we determined reduction of growth rate and metabolic specialization as signatures of adaptive evolution. We show that central metabolic pathways of three distinct Pseudomonas aeruginosa lineages coevolving within the same environment become restructured at the cost of versatility during long-term colonization. Cell physiology changes from naive to adapted phenotypes resulted in (i) alteration of growth potential that particularly converged to a slow-growth phenotype, (ii) alteration of nutritional requirements due to auxotrophy, (iii) tailored preference for carbon source assimilation from CF sputum, (iv) reduced arginine and pyruvate fermentation processes, and (v) increased oxygen requirements. Interestingly, although convergence was evidenced at the phenotypic level of metabolic specialization, comparative genomics disclosed diverse mutational patterns underlying the different evolutionary trajectories. Therefore, distinct combinations of genetic and regulatory changes converge to common metabolic adaptive trajectories leading to within-host metabolic specialization. This study gives new insight into bacterial metabolic evolution during long-term colonization of a new environmental niche. PMID:29636437

Long-term dynamics emerging in floodplains and deltas from the interactions between hydrology and society in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Viglione, Alberto; Yan, Kun; Brandimarte, Luigia; Blöschl, Günter

2014-05-01

Economic losses and fatalities associated to flood events have increased dramatically over the past decades. This situation might worsen in the near future because of rapid urbanization of many floodplains and deltas, along with enhancement of flood water levels as a result of human interventions, climate variability or sea level rise. To explore future dynamics, we developed a novel approach, which takes into account the dynamic nature of flood risk by an explicit treatment of the interactions and feedbacks between the hydrological and social components of flood risk (i.e. probability of flooding, and potential adverse consequences). In particular, we developed a socio-hydrological model that allows considering how the frequency and magnitude of flooding shapes the evolution of societies, while, at the same time, dynamic societies shape the frequency and magnitude of flooding. We then use this model to simulate long-term dynamics of different types of societies under hydrological change, e.g. increasing flood frequency. Based on the study of long-term dynamics of different floodplains and deltas around the world (e.g. Netherlands, Bangladesh), we identify two main typologies of flood-shaped societies: i) techno-societies, which "fight floods", and typically deal with risk by building and strengthening flood protection structures, such as levees or dikes; and ii) green-societies, which "lives with floods", and mainly cope with risk via adaptation measures, such as resettling out of flood prone areas. The outcomes of this study are relevant for the management of deltas and floodplains as they allow a comparison of long-term dynamics between diverse types of societies in terms of robustness to hydrological change.

Rapid evolution mitigates the ecological consequences of an invasive species (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Gillis, Michael K; Walsh, Matthew R

2017-07-12

Invasive species have extensive negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health. Novel species also drive contemporary evolution in many native populations, which could mitigate or amplify their impacts on ecosystems. The predatory zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus invaded lakes in Wisconsin, USA, in 2009. This invasion caused precipitous declines in zooplankton prey ( Daphnia pulicaria ), with cascading impacts on ecosystem services (water clarity). Here, we tested the link between Bythotrephes invasion, evolution in Daphnia and post-invasion ecological dynamics using 15 years of long-term data in conjunction with comparative experiments. Invasion by Bythotrephes is associated with rapid increases in the body size of Daphnia Laboratory experiments revealed that such shifts have a genetic component; third-generation laboratory-reared Daphnia from 'invaded' lakes are significantly larger and exhibit greater reproductive effort than individuals from 'uninvaded' lakes. This trajectory of evolution should accelerate Daphnia population growth and enhance population persistence. We tested this prediction by comparing analyses of long-term data with laboratory-based simulations, and show that rapid evolution in Daphnia is associated with increased population growth in invaded lakes. © 2017 The Authors.

A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates.

PubMed

Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N; Pantelous, Athanasios A; Zuev, Konstantin M

2018-01-01

In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Applicability of transfer tensor method for open quantum system dynamics.

PubMed

Gelzinis, Andrius; Rybakovas, Edvardas; Valkunas, Leonas

2017-12-21

Accurate simulations of open quantum system dynamics is a long standing issue in the field of chemical physics. Exact methods exist, but are costly, while perturbative methods are limited in their applicability. Recently a new black-box type method, called transfer tensor method (TTM), was proposed [J. Cerrillo and J. Cao, Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 110401 (2014)]. It allows one to accurately simulate long time dynamics with a numerical cost of solving a time-convolution master equation, provided many initial system evolution trajectories are obtained from some exact method beforehand. The possible time-savings thus strongly depend on the ratio of total versus initial evolution lengths. In this work, we investigate the parameter regimes where an application of TTM would be most beneficial in terms of computational time. We identify several promising parameter regimes. Although some of them correspond to cases when perturbative theories could be expected to perform well, we find that the accuracy of such approaches depends on system parameters in a more complex way than it is commonly thought. We propose that the TTM should be applied whenever system evolution is expected to be long and accuracy of perturbative methods cannot be ensured or in cases when the system under consideration does not correspond to any single perturbative regime.

Dynamical Evolution Induced by Planet Nine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batygin, Konstantin; Morbidelli, Alessandro

2017-12-01

The observational census of trans-Neptunian objects with semimajor axes greater than ˜ 250 {au} exhibits unexpected orbital structure that is most readily attributed to gravitational perturbations induced by a yet-undetected, massive planet. Although the capacity of this planet to (I) reproduce the observed clustering of distant orbits in physical space, (II) facilitate the dynamical detachment of their perihelia from Neptune, and (III) excite a population of long-period centaurs to extreme inclinations is well-established through numerical experiments, a coherent theoretical description of the dynamical mechanisms responsible for these effects remains elusive. In this work, we characterize the dynamical processes at play from semi-analytic grounds. We begin by considering a purely secular model of orbital evolution induced by Planet Nine and show that it is at odds with the ensuing stability of distant objects. Instead, the long-term survival of the clustered population of long-period Kuiper Belt objects (KBOs) is enabled by a web of mean-motion resonances driven by Planet Nine. Then, by taking a compact-form approach to perturbation theory, we show that it is the secular dynamics embedded within these resonances that regulate the orbital confinement and perihelion detachment of distant KBOs. Finally, we demonstrate that the onset of large-amplitude oscillations of the orbital inclinations is accomplished through the capture of low-inclination objects into a high-order secular resonance, and we identify the specific harmonic that drives the evolution. In light of the developed qualitative understanding of the governing dynamics, we offer an updated interpretation of the current observational data set within the broader theoretical framework of the Planet Nine hypothesis.

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

Modelling opinion formation driven communities in social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iñiguez, Gerardo; Barrio, Rafael A.; Kertész, János; Kaski, Kimmo K.

2011-09-01

In a previous paper we proposed a model to study the dynamics of opinion formation in human societies by a co-evolution process involving two distinct time scales of fast transaction and slower network evolution dynamics. In the transaction dynamics we take into account short range interactions as discussions between individuals and long range interactions to describe the attitude to the overall mood of society. The latter is handled by a uniformly distributed parameter α, assigned randomly to each individual, as quenched personal bias. The network evolution dynamics is realised by rewiring the societal network due to state variable changes as a result of transaction dynamics. The main consequence of this complex dynamics is that communities emerge in the social network for a range of values in the ratio between time scales. In this paper we focus our attention on the attitude parameter α and its influence on the conformation of opinion and the size of the resulting communities. We present numerical studies and extract interesting features of the model that can be interpreted in terms of social behaviour.

A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

PubMed Central

Chen, Yanhua; Mantegna, Rosario N.; Zuev, Konstantin M.

2018-01-01

In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007–09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks. PMID:29529092

“SLIMPLECTIC” INTEGRATORS: VARIATIONAL INTEGRATORS FOR GENERAL NONCONSERVATIVE SYSTEMS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsang, David; Turner, Alec; Galley, Chad R.

2015-08-10

Symplectic integrators are widely used for long-term integration of conservative astrophysical problems due to their ability to preserve the constants of motion; however, they cannot in general be applied in the presence of nonconservative interactions. In this Letter, we develop the “slimplectic” integrator, a new type of numerical integrator that shares many of the benefits of traditional symplectic integrators yet is applicable to general nonconservative systems. We utilize a fixed-time-step variational integrator formalism applied to the principle of stationary nonconservative action developed in Galley et al. As a result, the generalized momenta and energy (Noether current) evolutions are well-tracked. Wemore » discuss several example systems, including damped harmonic oscillators, Poynting–Robertson drag, and gravitational radiation reaction, by utilizing our new publicly available code to demonstrate the slimplectic integrator algorithm. Slimplectic integrators are well-suited for integrations of systems where nonconservative effects play an important role in the long-term dynamical evolution. As such they are particularly appropriate for cosmological or celestial N-body dynamics problems where nonconservative interactions, e.g., gas interactions or dissipative tides, can play an important role.« less

On the long-term fitness of cells in periodically switching environments.

PubMed

Pang, Ning-Ning; Tzeng, Wen-Jer

2008-01-01

Because all the cell populations are capable of making switches between different genetic expression states in response to the environmental change, Thattai and van Oudenaarden (Genetics 167, 523-530, 2004) have raised a very interesting question: In a constantly fluctuating environment, which type of cell population (heterogeneous or homogeneous) is fitter in the long term? This problem is very important to development and evolution biology. We thus take an extensive analysis about how the cell population evolves in a periodically switching environment either with symmetrical time-span or asymmetrical time-span. A complete picture of the phase diagrams for both cases is obtained. Furthermore, we find that the systems with time-dependent cellular transitions all collapse to the same set of dynamical equations with the modified parameters. Furthermore, we also explain in detail how the fitness problem bears much resemblance to the phenomenon, stochastic resonance, in physical sciences. Our results could be helpful for the biologists to design artificial evolution experiments and unveil the mystery of development and evolution.

Toward a theory of multilevel evolution: long-term information integration shapes the mutational landscape and enhances evolvability.

PubMed

Hogeweg, Paulien

2012-01-01

Most of evolutionary theory has abstracted away from how information is coded in the genome and how this information is transformed into traits on which selection takes place. While in the earliest stages of biological evolution, in the RNA world, the mapping from the genotype into function was largely predefined by the physical-chemical properties of the evolving entities (RNA replicators, e.g. from sequence to folded structure and catalytic sites), in present-day organisms, the mapping itself is the result of evolution. I will review results of several in silico evolutionary studies which examine the consequences of evolving the genetic coding, and the ways this information is transformed, while adapting to prevailing environments. Such multilevel evolution leads to long-term information integration. Through genome, network, and dynamical structuring, the occurrence and/or effect of random mutations becomes nonrandom, and facilitates rapid adaptation. This is what does happen in the in silico experiments. Is it also what did happen in biological evolution? I will discuss some data that suggest that it did. In any case, these results provide us with novel search images to tackle the wealth of biological data.

Dynamical Evolution and Spin-Orbit Resonances of Potentially Habitable Exoplanets. The Case of GJ 667C

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-10

observed trend is consistent with a gravitational acceleration exerted by the inner pair of stars (A and B) in this multiple star system. Our planet...the other hand, the observed trend in the RV of the C component can be caused by its orbital acceleration around the AB pair. 3. LONG-TERM EVOLUTION...polar torque acting on a rotating planet is the sum of the gravitational torque, caused by the triaxial permanent shape and the corresponding quadrupole

Aging dynamics of quantum spin glasses of rotors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennett, Malcolm P.; Chamon, Claudio; Ye, Jinwu

2001-12-01

We study the long time dynamics of quantum spin glasses of rotors using the nonequilibrium Schwinger-Keldysh formalism. These models are known to have a quantum phase transition from a paramagnetic to a spin-glass phase, which we approach by looking at the divergence of the spin-relaxation rate at the transition point. In the aging regime, we determine the dynamical equations governing the time evolution of the spin response and correlation functions, and show that all terms in the equations that arise solely from quantum effects are irrelevant at long times under time reparametrization group (RPG) transformations. At long times, quantum effects enter only through the renormalization of the parameters in the dynamical equations for the classical counterpart of the rotor model. Consequently, quantum effects only modify the out-of-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation (OEFDR), i.e. the ratio X between the temperature and the effective temperature, but not the form of the classical OEFDR.

Feedback coupling in dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud

2003-05-01

Different evolution models are considered with feedback-couplings. In particular, we study the Lotka-Volterra system under the influence of a cumulative term, the Ginzburg-Landau model with a convolution memory term and chemical rate equations with time delay. The memory leads to a modified dynamical behavior. In case of a positive coupling the generalized Lotka-Volterra system exhibits a maximum gain achieved after a finite time, but the population will die out in the long time limit. In the opposite case, the time evolution is terminated in a crash. Due to the nonlinear feedback coupling the two branches of a bistable model are controlled by the the strength and the sign of the memory. For a negative coupling the system is able to switch over between both branches of the stationary solution. The dynamics of the system is further controlled by the initial condition. The diffusion-limited reaction is likewise studied in case the reacting entities are not available simultaneously. Whereas for an external feedback the dynamics is altered, but the stationary solution remain unchanged, a self-organized internal feedback leads to a time persistent solution.

Dynamical Stability and Evolution of Kepler’s compact inner multi-planet systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pu, Bonan

2017-06-01

NASA’s Kepler mission has revealed a population of highly compact inner multi-planet systems. These systems, typically consisting of 4-6 super-Earths, feature tight orbital spacing between planets as well as low orbital inclinations (~2 deg. ) and eccentricities (~2%). This stands in contrast to Kepler’s singles population, which appears to feature higher orbital obliquities and eccentricities, as well as a lower transit timing variation fraction indicative of lower true planet multiplicities.In this talk, I will present some previous and ongoing research aimed at understanding the dynamical evolution of these Kepler systems. First, I will present numerical N-body investigations on the long-term stability of multi-planet systems, the results of which suggest that Kepler’s systems are near the edge of stability. Next, I will discuss some current research on the dynamics of planetary close encounters and collisions, and their implications for the ultimate fate of dynamically unstable multi-planet systems. Finally, I will highlight some recent results on the dynamical stability and evolution of inner multi-planet systems when they are accompanied by external giant planet and/or stellar companions.

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

Dyamical Systems Theory and Lagrangian Data Assimilation in 4D Geophysical Fluid Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

The long-term goal of our project (known as OCEAN 3D +1) was to better understand and predict ocean circulation features that are fundamentally three...dimensional in space and that vary in time. In particular, we sought to quantify the dynamical processes that govern the formation , evolution, and...predictability of 3D +1 transport pathways in the ocean. Our approach was to develop algorithms to thoroughly analyze a hierarchy of model and

Schrödinger Evolution of Self-Gravitating Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batygin, Konstantin

2018-04-01

An understanding of the long-term evolution of self-gravitating disks ranks among the classic problems of dynamical astronomy. In this talk, I will describe an intriguing connection between the secular inclination dynamics of a Lagrange-Laplace disk and the time-dependent Schrödinger equation. Within the context of this formalism, nodal bending waves correspond to the eigen-modes of a quasiparticle’s wavefunction, confined in an infinite square well with boundaries given by the radial extent of the disk. I will further show that external secular perturbations upon self-gravitating disks exhibit a mathematical similarity to quantum scattering theory, yielding an analytic criterion for the gravitational rigidity of a nearly-Keplerian disk under external perturbations.

Extrasolar binary planets. I. Formation by tidal capture during planet-planet scattering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ochiai, H.; Nagasawa, M.; Ida, S., E-mail: nagasawa.m.ad@m.titech.ac.jp

2014-08-01

We have investigated (1) the formation of gravitationally bounded pairs of gas-giant planets (which we call 'binary planets') from capturing each other through planet-planet dynamical tide during their close encounters and (2) the subsequent long-term orbital evolution due to planet-planet and planet-star quasi-static tides. For the initial evolution in phase 1, we carried out N-body simulations of the systems consisting of three Jupiter-mass planets taking into account the dynamical tide. The formation rate of the binary planets is as much as 10% of the systems that undergo orbital crossing, and this fraction is almost independent of the initial stellarcentric semimajormore » axes of the planets, while ejection and merging rates sensitively depend on the semimajor axes. As a result of circularization by the planet-planet dynamical tide, typical binary separations are a few times the sum of the physical radii of the planets. After the orbital circularization, the evolution of the binary system is governed by long-term quasi-static tide. We analytically calculated the quasi-static tidal evolution in phase 2. The binary planets first enter the spin-orbit synchronous state by the planet-planet tide. The planet-star tide removes angular momentum of the binary motion, eventually resulting in a collision between the planets. However, we found that the binary planets survive the tidal decay for the main-sequence lifetime of solar-type stars (∼10 Gyr), if the binary planets are beyond ∼0.3 AU from the central stars. These results suggest that the binary planets can be detected by transit observations at ≳ 0.3 AU.« less

Networks of Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bettencourt, Luis; Kaiser, David

2004-03-01

Based on an a historically documented example of scientific discovery - Feynman diagrams as the main calculational tool of theoretical high energy Physics - we map the time evolution of the social network of early adopters through in the US, UK, Japan and the USSR. The spread of the technique for total number of users in each region is then modelled in terms of epidemic models, highlighting parallel and divergent aspects of this analogy. We also show that transient social arrangements develop as the idea is introduced and learned, which later disappear as the technique becomes common knowledge. Such early transient is characterized by abnormally low connectivity distribution powers and by high clustering. This interesting early non-equilibrium stage of network evolution is captured by a new dynamical model for network evolution, which coincides in its long time limit with familiar preferential aggregation dynamics.

Convergent Metabolic Specialization through Distinct Evolutionary Paths in Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

PubMed

La Rosa, Ruggero; Johansen, Helle Krogh; Molin, Søren

2018-04-10

Evolution by natural selection under complex and dynamic environmental conditions occurs through intricate and often counterintuitive trajectories affecting many genes and metabolic solutions. To study short- and long-term evolution of bacteria in vivo , we used the natural model system of cystic fibrosis (CF) infection. In this work, we investigated how and through which trajectories evolution of Pseudomonas aeruginosa occurs when migrating from the environment to the airways of CF patients, and specifically, we determined reduction of growth rate and metabolic specialization as signatures of adaptive evolution. We show that central metabolic pathways of three distinct Pseudomonas aeruginosa lineages coevolving within the same environment become restructured at the cost of versatility during long-term colonization. Cell physiology changes from naive to adapted phenotypes resulted in (i) alteration of growth potential that particularly converged to a slow-growth phenotype, (ii) alteration of nutritional requirements due to auxotrophy, (iii) tailored preference for carbon source assimilation from CF sputum, (iv) reduced arginine and pyruvate fermentation processes, and (v) increased oxygen requirements. Interestingly, although convergence was evidenced at the phenotypic level of metabolic specialization, comparative genomics disclosed diverse mutational patterns underlying the different evolutionary trajectories. Therefore, distinct combinations of genetic and regulatory changes converge to common metabolic adaptive trajectories leading to within-host metabolic specialization. This study gives new insight into bacterial metabolic evolution during long-term colonization of a new environmental niche. IMPORTANCE Only a few examples of real-time evolutionary investigations in environments outside the laboratory are described in the scientific literature. Remembering that biological evolution, as it has progressed in nature, has not taken place in test tubes, it is not surprising that conclusions from our investigations of bacterial evolution in the CF model system are different from what has been concluded from laboratory experiments. The analysis presented here of the metabolic and regulatory driving forces leading to successful adaptation to a new environment provides an important insight into the role of metabolism and its regulatory mechanisms for successful adaptation of microorganisms in dynamic and complex environments. Understanding the trajectories of adaptation, as well as the mechanisms behind slow growth and rewiring of regulatory and metabolic networks, is a key element to understand the adaptive robustness and evolvability of bacteria in the process of increasing their in vivo fitness when conquering new territories. Copyright © 2018 La Rosa et al.

Evolution of Holocene tidal systems along the Dutch coast: effects of rivers, coastal boundary conditions, eco-engineering species, inherited relief and human interference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haas, T. D.; Pierik, H. J.; van der Spek, A.; Cohen, K.; van Maanen, B.; Kleinhans, M. G.

2016-12-01

Estuaries and tidal basins are partly enclosed coastal bodies of water with a free connection to the open sea at their tidal inlet and with no to marginal riverine input (tidal basins) or substantial riverine input (estuaries). Their tidal inlets can only remain open over Holocene timescales when (1) the formation of accommodation space exceeds infilling or (2) the inlet system is in dynamic equilibrium (sediment input equals output). Physical and numerical modelling suggest that estuaries and tidal basins develop toward a dynamic equilibrium under constant boundary conditions and remain open over long timescales, whereas many natural estuaries and tidal basins have filled up and were closed off or became deltas during the Holocene. This raises the question if and how tidal inlets can remain open over long timescales? And what is the effect of river inflow and sediment supply thereon? Here we compare the Holocene evolution of tidal systems along the Dutch coast to empirically identify the most important factors that control their long-term evolution. Along the coast of the Netherlands estuaries and tidal basins were formed during the middle Holocene driven by rapid relative sea-level rise and during the late Holocene driven by natural and human-induced subsidence in coastal plain peatlands. During the Holocene tidal inlets connected to rivers (estuaries) were able to persist and attain dynamic equilibrium while tidal basins without or with a very marginal riverine inflow were unstable and closed off under abundant sediment supply. There are many examples of long-lived tidal inlets that rapidly closed off after upstream river avulsion leading to a decrease and finally loss of riverine input. Long-term net import of sediment from the sea into Dutch tidal basins is favoured by strong, flood-dominated, tidal asymmetry along the Dutch coast, the shallow sand-rich floor of the North Sea and the abundance of mud in the coastal area supplied by the Rhine and Meuse rivers. While sandy tidal basins may obtain dynamic equilibrium and remain open over long timescales, we hypothesize that an abundance of mud and eco-engineering species often culminates in continuous basin filling with fine sediment and the growth of intertidal and supratidal areas, eventually resulting in closure of the basin.

Using machine learning to explore the long-term evolution of GRS 1915+105

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Heil, Lucy M.; Hogg, David W.; Mueller, Andreas

2017-04-01

Among the population of known Galactic black hole X-ray binaries, GRS 1915+105 stands out in multiple ways. It has been in continuous outburst since 1992, and has shown a wide range of different states that can be distinguished by their timing and spectral properties. These states, also observed in IGR J17091-3624, have in the past been linked to accretion dynamics. Here, we present the first comprehensive study into the long-term evolution of GRS 1915+105, using the entire data set observed with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer over its 16-yr lifetime. We develop a set of descriptive features allowing for automatic separation of states, and show that supervised machine learning in the form of logistic regression and random forests can be used to efficiently classify the entire data set. For the first time, we explore the duty cycle and time evolution of states over the entire 16-yr time span, and find that the temporal distribution of states has likely changed over the span of the observations. We connect the machine classification with physical interpretations of the phenomenology in terms of chaotic and stochastic processes.

A physical model for earthquakes. I - Fluctuations and interactions. II - Application to southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rundle, John B.

1988-01-01

The idea that earthquakes represent a fluctuation about the long-term motion of plates is expressed mathematically through the fluctuation hypothesis, under which all physical quantities which pertain to the occurance of earthquakes are required to depend on the difference between the present state of slip on the fault and its long-term average. It is shown that under certain circumstances the model fault dynamics undergo a sudden transition from a spatially ordered, temporally disordered state to a spatially disordered, temporally ordered state, and that the latter stages are stable for long intervals of time. For long enough faults, the dynamics are evidently chaotic. The methods developed are then used to construct a detailed model for earthquake dynamics in southern California. The result is a set of slip-time histories for all the major faults, which are similar to data obtained by geological trenching studies. Although there is an element of periodicity to the events, the patterns shift, change and evolve with time. Time scales for pattern evolution seem to be of the order of a thousand years for average recurring intervals of about a hundred years.

The dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reeves, Geoffrey D; Koller, Josef; Tokar, Robert L

2010-01-01

The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) is a 3-year effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to provide global, retrospective, or real-time specification of the natural and potential nuclear radiation environments. The DREAM model uses Kalman filtering techniques that combine the strengths of new physical models of the radiation belts with electron observations from long-term satellite systems such as GPS and geosynchronous systems. DREAM includes a physics model for the production and long-term evolution of artificial radiation belts from high altitude nuclear explosions. DREAM has been validated against satellites in arbitrary orbits and consistently produces more accurate resultsmore » than existing models. Tools for user-specific applications and graphical displays are in beta testing and a real-time version of DREAM has been in continuous operation since November 2009.« less

Multiscale Dynamics of Aseismic Slip on Central San Andreas Fault

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khoshmanesh, M.; Shirzaei, M.

2018-03-01

Understanding the evolution of aseismic slip enables constraining the fault's seismic budget and provides insight into dynamics of creep. Inverting the time series of surface deformation measured along the Central San Andreas Fault obtained from interferometric synthetic aperture radar in combination with measurements of repeating earthquakes, we constrain the spatiotemporal distribution of creep during 1992-2010. We identify a new class of intermediate-term creep rate variations that evolve over decadal scale, releasing stress on the accelerating zone and loading adjacent decelerating patches. We further show that in short-term (<2 year period), creep avalanches, that is, isolated clusters of accelerated aseismic slip with velocities exceeding the long-term rate, govern the dynamics of creep. The statistical properties of these avalanches suggest existence of elevated pore pressure in the fault zone, consistent with laboratory experiments.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naoz, Smadar; Li, Gongjie; Zanardi, Macarena

The secular approximation of the hierarchical three body systems has been proven to be very useful in addressing many astrophysical systems, from planets to stars to black holes. In such a system, two objects are on a tight orbit and the tertiary is on a much wider orbit. Here, we study the dynamics of a system by taking the tertiary mass to zero and solve the hierarchical three body system up to the octupole level of approximation. We find a rich dynamics that the outer orbit undergoes due to gravitational perturbations from the inner binary. The nominal result of themore » precession of the nodes is mostly limited for the lowest order of approximation; however, when the octupole level of approximation is introduced, the system becomes chaotic, as expected, and the tertiary oscillates below and above 90°, similarly to the non-test particle flip behavior. We provide the Hamiltonian of the system and investigate the dynamics of the system from the quadrupole to the octupole level of approximations. We also analyze the chaotic and quasi-periodic orbital evolution by studying the surfaces of sections. Furthermore, including general relativity, we showcase the long-term evolution of individual debris disk particles under the influence of a far-away interior eccentric planet. We show that this dynamics can naturally result in retrograde objects and a puffy disk after a long timescale evolution (a few Gyr) for initially aligned configuration.« less

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Temmerman, Stijn; D'Alpaos, Andrea; van de Koppel, Johan; Rybczyk, John; Reyes, Enrique; Craft, Chris; Clough, Jonathan

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagherazzi, S.; Kirwan, M.L.; Mudd, S.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Temmerman, S.; D'Alpaos, A.; Van De Koppel, J.; Rybczyk, J.M.; Reyes, E.; Craft, C.; Clough, J.

2012-01-01

Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

Adiabatic invariants in stellar dynamics. 1: Basic concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinberg, Martin D.

1994-01-01

The adiabatic criterion, widely used in astronomical dynamics, is based on the harmonic oscillator. It asserts that the change in action under a slowly varying perturbation is exponentially small. Recent mathematical results that precisely define the conditions for invariance show that this model does not apply in general. In particular, a slowly varying perturbation may cause significant evolution stellar dynamical systems even if its time scale is longer than any internal orbital time scale. This additional 'heating' may have serious implications for the evolution of star clusters and dwarf galaxies which are subject to long-term environmental forces. The mathematical developments leading to these results are reviewed, and the conditions for applicability to and further implications for stellar systems are discussed. Companion papers present a computational method for a general time-dependent disturbance and detailed example.

The Dynamical Evolution of Stellar-Mass Black Holes in Dense Star Clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morscher, Maggie

Globular clusters are gravitationally bound systems containing up to millions of stars, and are found ubiquitously in massive galaxies, including the Milky Way. With densities as high as a million stars per cubic parsec, they are one of the few places in the Universe where stars interact with one another. They therefore provide us with a unique laboratory for studying how gravitational interactions can facilitate the formation of exotic systems, such as X-ray binaries containing black holes, and merging double black hole binaries, which are produced much less efficiently in isolation. While telescopes can provide us with a snapshot of what these dense clusters look like at present, we must rely on detailed numerical simulations to learn about their evolution. These simulations are quite challenging, however, since dense star clusters are described by a complicated set of physical processes occurring on many different length and time scales, including stellar and binary evolution, weak gravitational scattering encounters, strong resonant binary interactions, and tidal stripping by the host galaxy. Until very recently, it was not possible to model the evolution of systems with millions of stars, the actual number contained in the largest clusters, including all the relevant physics required describe these systems accurately. The Northwestern Group's Henon Monte Carlo code, CMC, which has been in development for over a decade, is a powerful tool that can be used to construct detailed evolutionary models of large star clusters. With its recent parallelization, CMC is now capable of addressing a particularly interesting unsolved problem in astrophysics: the dynamical evolution of stellar black holes in dense star clusters. Our current understanding of the stellar initial mass function and massive star evolution suggests that young globular clusters may have formed hundreds to thousands of stellar-mass black holes, the remnants of stars with initial masses from 20 - 100 Solar masses. Birth kicks from supernova explosions may eject some black holes from their birth clusters, but most should be retained initially. Using our Monte Carlo code, we have investigated the long-term dynamical evolution of globular clusters containing large numbers of stellar black holes. Our study is the first to explore in detail the dynamics of BHs in clusters through a large number of realistic simulations covering a wide range of initial conditions (cluster masses from 105 -- 106 Solar masses, as well as variation in other key parameters, such as the virial radius, central concentration, and metallicity), that also includes all the required physics. In almost all of our models we find that significant numbers of black holes (up to about a 1000) are retained all the way to the present. This is in contrast to previous theoretical expectations that most black holes should be ejected dynamically within a few Gyr. The main reason for this difference is that core collapse driven by black holes (through the Spitzer "mass segregation instability'') is easily reverted through three-body processes, and involves only a small number of the most massive black holes, while lower-mass black holes remain well-mixed with ordinary stars far from the central cusp. Thus the rapid segregation of stellar black holes does not lead to a long-term physical separation of most black holes into a dynamically decoupled inner core, as often assumed previously; this is one of the most important results of this dissertation. Combined with the recent detections of several black hole X-ray binary candidates in Galactic globular clusters, our results suggest that stellar black holes could still be present in large numbers in many globular clusters today, and that they may play a significant role in shaping the long-term dynamical evolution and the present-day dynamical structure of many clusters.

A saw-less direct conversion long term evolution receiver with 25% duty-cycle LO in 130 nm CMOS technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siyuan, He; Changhong, Zhang; Liang, Tao; Weifeng, Zhang; Longyue, Zeng; Wei, Lü; Haijun, Wu

2013-03-01

A CMOS long-term evolution (LTE) direct convert receiver that eliminates the interstage SAW filter is presented. The receiver consists of a low noise variable gain transconductance amplifier (TCA), a quadrature passive current commutating mixer with a 25% duty-cycle LO, a trans-impedance amplifier (TIA), a 7th-order Chebyshev filter and programmable gain amplifiers (PGAs). A wide dynamic gain range is allocated in the RF and analog parts. A current commutating passive mixer with a 25% duty-cycle LO improves gain, noise, and linearity. An LPF based on a Tow-Thomas biquad suppresses out-of-band interference. Fabricated in a 0.13 μm CMOS process, the receiver chain achieves a 107 dB maximum voltage gain, 2.7 dB DSB NF (from PAD port), -11 dBm IIP3, and > +65 dBm IIP2 after calibration, 96 dB dynamic control range with 1 dB steps, less than 2% error vector magnitude (EVM) from 2.3 to 2.7 GHz. The total receiver (total I Q path) draws 89 mA from a 1.2-V LDO on chip supply.

Influence of the dynamic Stark effect on long-term frequency stability of a self-oscillating magnetometer with laser-pumped alkali atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranov, A. A.; Ermak, S. V.; Kulachenkov, N. K.; Petrenko, M. V.; Sagitov, E. A.; Semenov, V. V.

2017-11-01

This paper presents the results of investigation Stark shift effect influence on the long-term stability of a dual scheme of quantum magnetometers. Such scheme allows suppressing Stark shift components when a certain pumping light polarization is applied. As a result, long-term stability of a quantum sensor increases. However, when low-frequency (LF) and microwave fields are attached to a single vapor cell a coherence circulation in hyperfine structure of alkali atoms takes place. Physical origin of this effect is associated with the so called “dressed” atom theory, when atom is “dressed” by LF field. It yields in multiphoton absorption and resonance frequency shift. First estimates for this shift based on density matrix evolution formalism are provided in the paper.

The effect of ilmenite viscosity on the dynamics and evolution of an overturned lunar cumulate mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nan; Dygert, Nick; Liang, Yan; Parmentier, E. M.

2017-07-01

Lunar cumulate mantle overturn and the subsequent upwelling of overturned mantle cumulates provide a potential framework for understanding the first-order thermochemical evolution of the Moon. Upwelling of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBCs) after the overturn has a dominant influence on the dynamics and long-term thermal evolution of the lunar mantle. An important parameter determining the stability and convective behavior of the IBC is its viscosity, which was recently constrained through rock deformation experiments. To examine the effect of IBC viscosity on the upwelling of overturned lunar cumulate mantle, here we conduct three-dimensional mantle convection models with an evolving core superposed by an IBC-rich layer, which resulted from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our modeling shows that a reduction of mantle viscosity by 1 order of magnitude, due to the presence of ilmenite, can dramatically change convective planform and long-term lunar mantle evolution. Our model results suggest a relatively stable partially molten IBC layer that has surrounded the lunar core to the present day.