Macro-scale deformation behavior and characterization of deformation mechanisms below µm-scale in experimentally deformed Boom Clay by using the combination of triaxial compression, X-ray µ-CT imaging, DIC, BIB cross sectioning, and SEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oelker, Anne; Desbois, Guillaume; Urai, Janos L.; Bésuelle, Pierre; Viggiani, Gioacchino; Levasseur, Séverine

2017-04-01

Boom Clay is one formation being studied in Belgium as a potential host rock for deep geological disposal of radioactive waste. This poorly indurated clay presents in its natural state favorable properties against the migration of radionuclides: low permeability, low solute diffusion rates, good retention and sorption capacity for many radionuclides and good self-sealing capacity. During construction of disposal galleries, stress redistribution will lead to perturbation of the clay and the formation around galleries of the so-called "Excavation disturbed Zone" (EdZ). The study of deformation mechanisms and evolution of Boom Clay properties at macro but also micro scale allows to assess in a more mechanistic way the evolution of Boom Clay properties in this EdZ. In this work, we show microstructural investigations of Boom Clay deformed in undrained triaxial compression by linking conventional stress/strain curves with Digital Image Correlation (DIC) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) imaging of broad-ion-beam (BIB) milled cross-sections to deduce deformation mechanisms based on microstructures at sub-micron resolution. Two specimens, collected in Mol (Belgium) at the European Underground Laboratories (URL) on HADES level, were analyzed: The major principal stress σ1 was applied parallel as well as perpendicular to the bedding direction with an initial mean normal effective stress of 4.5 MPa and an initial pore water pressure of 2.3 MPa, which are equal to the in-situ values. Linking the resulting DIC-derived maps of incremental strains with the corresponding stress/strain curve give not only information about the moment of the shear band development, but also on the way strain evolves within the specimen throughout the rest. Incremental DIC analysis of X-ray tomographic scans performed during loading tests give a time evolution of the strain field, and subsequently allow to detect strain localization which appears close to the stress peak. Regions with a comparable high and low shear strain were chosen and prepared for BIB-SEM investigations. In this case, shear bands show typical characteristics of uncemented small-grained clay-rich materials deformed at high shear strains including anastomosing shears. At nano-scale, the preferential orientation of clay particles in the anastomosing shears are construed to be responsible for the shear weakness. In addition, the reorientation of clay particles during the deformation leads to the strong reduction of porosity in the shear band. Ductile deformation mechanisms represented by grain-rotation, grain-sliding, bending, and granular flow are strongly involved for the development of the shear band.

The long-term evolution of known resonant trans-Neptunian objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saillenfest, M.; Lari, G.

2017-07-01

Aims: Numerous trans-Neptunian objects are known to be in mean-motion resonance with Neptune. We aim to describe their long-term orbital evolution (both past and future) by means of a one-degree-of-freedom secular model. In this paper, we focus only on objects with a semi-major axis larger than 50 astronomical units (au). Methods: For each resonant object considered, a 500 000-year numerical integration is performed. The output is digitally filtered to get the parameters of the resonant secular model. Their long-term (Giga-year) orbital evolution is then represented by the level curves of the secular Hamiltonian. Results: For the majority of objects considered, the mean-motion resonance has little impact on the long-term trajectories (the secular dynamics is similar to a non-resonant one). However, a subset of objects is strongly affected by the resonance, producing moderately-high-amplitude oscillations of the perihelion distance and/or libration of the argument of perihelion around a fixed centre. Moreover, the high perihelion distance of the object 2015 FJ345 is plainly explained by long-term resonant dynamics, allowing us to also deduce its orbital elements at the time of capture in resonance (at least 15 million years ago). The same type of past evolution is expected for 2014 FZ71.

Long-term phenotypic evolution of bacteria.

PubMed

Plata, Germán; Henry, Christopher S; Vitkup, Dennis

2015-01-15

For many decades comparative analyses of protein sequences and structures have been used to investigate fundamental principles of molecular evolution. In contrast, relatively little is known about the long-term evolution of species' phenotypic and genetic properties. This represents an important gap in our understanding of evolution, as exactly these proprieties play key roles in natural selection and adaptation to diverse environments. Here we perform a comparative analysis of bacterial growth and gene deletion phenotypes using hundreds of genome-scale metabolic models. Overall, bacterial phenotypic evolution can be described by a two-stage process with a rapid initial phenotypic diversification followed by a slow long-term exponential divergence. The observed average divergence trend, with approximately similar fractions of phenotypic properties changing per unit time, continues for billions of years. We experimentally confirm the predicted divergence trend using the phenotypic profiles of 40 diverse bacterial species across more than 60 growth conditions. Our analysis suggests that, at long evolutionary distances, gene essentiality is significantly more conserved than the ability to utilize different nutrients, while synthetic lethality is significantly less conserved. We also find that although a rapid phenotypic evolution is sometimes observed within the same species, a transition from high to low phenotypic similarity occurs primarily at the genus level.

Revealing the long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin, Brazil and Namibia, by thermokinematic numerical modeling using the software code Pecube.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stippich, Christian; Glasmacher, Ulrich Anton; Hackspacher, Peter

2015-04-01

The aim of the research is to quantify the long-term landscape evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in SE-Brazil and NW-Namibia. Excellent onshore outcrop conditions and complete rift to post-rift archives between Sao Paulo and Porto Alegre and in the transition from Namibia to Angola (onshore Walvis ridge) allow a high precision quantification of exhumation, and uplift rates, influencing physical parameters, long-term acting forces, and process-response systems. Research will integrate the published and partly published thermochronological data from Brazil and Namibia, and test lately published new concepts on causes of long-term landscape evolution at rifted margins. The climate-continental margin-mantle coupled process-response system is caused by the interaction between endogenous and exogenous forces, which are related to the mantle-process driven rift - drift - passive continental margin evolution of the South Atlantic, and the climate change since the Early/Late Cretaceous climate maximum. Special emphasis will be given to the influence of long-living transform faults such as the Florianopolis Fracture Zone (FFZ) on the long-term topography evolution of the SAPCM's. A long-term landscape evolution model with process rates will be achieved by thermo-kinematic 3-D modeling (software code PECUBE1,2 and FastScape3). Testing model solutions obtained for a multidimensional parameter space against the real thermochronological and geomorphological data set, the most likely combinations of parameter rates, and values can be constrained. The data and models will allow separating the exogenous and endogenous forces and their process rates. References 1. Braun, J., 2003. Pecube: A new finite element code to solve the 3D heat transport equation including the effects of a time-varying, finite amplitude surface topography. Computers and Geosciences, v.29, pp.787-794. 2. Braun, J., van der Beek, P., Valla, P., Robert, X., Herman, F., Goltzbacj, C., Pedersen, V., Perry, C., Simon-Labric, T., Prigent, C. 2012. Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE. Tectonophysics, v.524-525, pp.1-28. 3. Braun, J. and Willett, S.D., 2013. A very efficient, O(n), implicit and parallel method to solve the basic stream power law equation governing fluvial incision and landscape evolution. Geomorphology, v.180-181, 170-179.

Genetic Drift, Not Life History or RNAi, Determine Long-Term Evolution of Transposable Elements

PubMed Central

Szitenberg, Amir; Cha, Soyeon; Opperman, Charles H.; Bird, David M.; Blaxter, Mark L.; Lunt, David H.

2016-01-01

Abstract Transposable elements (TEs) are a major source of genome variation across the branches of life. Although TEs may play an adaptive role in their host’s genome, they are more often deleterious, and purifying selection is an important factor controlling their genomic loads. In contrast, life history, mating system, GC content, and RNAi pathways have been suggested to account for the disparity of TE loads in different species. Previous studies of fungal, plant, and animal genomes have reported conflicting results regarding the direction in which these genomic features drive TE evolution. Many of these studies have had limited power, however, because they studied taxonomically narrow systems, comparing only a limited number of phylogenetically independent contrasts, and did not address long-term effects on TE evolution. Here, we test the long-term determinants of TE evolution by comparing 42 nematode genomes spanning over 500 million years of diversification. This analysis includes numerous transitions between life history states, and RNAi pathways, and evaluates if these forces are sufficiently persistent to affect the long-term evolution of TE loads in eukaryotic genomes. Although we demonstrate statistical power to detect selection, we find no evidence that variation in these factors influence genomic TE loads across extended periods of time. In contrast, the effects of genetic drift appear to persist and control TE variation among species. We suggest that variation in the tested factors are largely inconsequential to the large differences in TE content observed between genomes, and only by these large-scale comparisons can we distinguish long-term and persistent effects from transient or random changes. PMID:27566762

Extinction events can accelerate evolution.

PubMed

Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

2015-01-01

Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term.

User Acceptance of Long-Term Evolution (LTE) Services: An Application of Extended Technology Acceptance Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon

2013-01-01

Purpose: The aim of this paper is to propose an integrated path model in order to explore user acceptance of long-term evolution (LTE) services by examining potential causal relationships between key psychological factors and user intention to use the services. Design/methodology/approach: Online survey data collected from 1,344 users are analysed…

Anisotropy of electrical conductivity of the excavation damaged zone in the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nicollin, Florence; Gibert, Dominique; Lesparre, Nolwenn; Nussbaum, Christophe

2010-04-01

Electrical resistivity measurements were performed to characterize the anisotropy of electrical resistivity of the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) at the end-face of a gallery in the Opalinus clay of the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL). The data were acquired with a combination of square arrays in 18 zones on the gallery's face and in two series of four boreholes perpendicular to the face. Each data set is independently inverted using simulated annealing to recover the resistivity tensor. Both the stability and the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem are discussed with synthetic examples. The inversion of the data shows that the face is split in two domains separated by a tectonic fracture, with different resistivity values but with a common orientation. The direction of the maximum resistivity is found perpendicular to the bedding plane, and the direction of minimum resistivity is contained in the face's plane. These results show that the geo-electrical structure of the EDZ is controlled by a combination of effects due to tectonics, stratigraphy, and recent fracturing produced by the excavation of the gallery.

Evolutionary model of stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaldasch, Joachim

2014-12-01

The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

Distributed Emulation in Support of Large Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

Provider LTE Long Term Evolution MB Megabyte MIPS Microprocessor without Interlocked Pipeline Stages MRT Multi-Threaded Routing Toolkit NPS Naval...environment, modifications to a network, protocol, or model can be executed – and the effects measured – without affecting real-world users or services...produce their results when analyzing performance of Long Term Evolution ( LTE ) gateways [3]. Many research scenarios allow problems to be represented

Chaos and unpredictability in evolution.

PubMed

Doebeli, Michael; Ispolatov, Iaroslav

2014-05-01

The possibility of complicated dynamic behavior driven by nonlinear feedbacks in dynamical systems has revolutionized science in the latter part of the last century. Yet despite examples of complicated frequency dynamics, the possibility of long-term evolutionary chaos is rarely considered. The concept of "survival of the fittest" is central to much evolutionary thinking and embodies a perspective of evolution as a directional optimization process exhibiting simple, predictable dynamics. This perspective is adequate for simple scenarios, when frequency-independent selection acts on scalar phenotypes. However, in most organisms many phenotypic properties combine in complicated ways to determine ecological interactions, and hence frequency-dependent selection. Therefore, it is natural to consider models for evolutionary dynamics generated by frequency-dependent selection acting simultaneously on many different phenotypes. Here we show that complicated, chaotic dynamics of long-term evolutionary trajectories in phenotype space is very common in a large class of such models when the dimension of phenotype space is large, and when there are selective interactions between the phenotypic components. Our results suggest that the perspective of evolution as a process with simple, predictable dynamics covers only a small fragment of long-term evolution. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Predicting geomorphic evolution through integration of numerical-model scenarios and topographic/bathymetric-survey updates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plant, N. G.; Long, J.; Dalyander, S.; Thompson, D.; Miselis, J. L.

2013-12-01

Natural resource and hazard management of barrier islands requires an understanding of geomorphic changes associated with long-term processes and storms. Uncertainty exists in understanding how long-term processes interact with the geomorphic changes caused by storms and the resulting perturbations of the long-term evolution trajectories. We use high-resolution data sets to initialize and correct high-fidelity numerical simulations of oceanographic forcing and resulting barrier island evolution. We simulate two years of observed storms to determine the individual and cumulative impacts of these events. Results are separated into cross-shore and alongshore components of sediment transport and compared with observed topographic and bathymetric changes during these time periods. The discrete island change induced by these storms is integrated with previous knowledge of long-term net alongshore sediment transport to project island evolution. The approach has been developed and tested using data collected at the Chandeleur Island chain off the coast of Louisiana (USA). The simulation time period included impacts from tropical and winter storms, as well as a human-induced perturbation associated with construction of a sand berm along the island shoreline. The predictions and observations indicated that storm and long-term processes both contribute to the migration, lowering, and disintegration of the artificial berm and natural island. Further analysis will determine the relative importance of cross-shore and alongshore sediment transport processes and the dominant time scales that drive each of these processes and subsequent island morphologic response.

Extinction Events Can Accelerate Evolution

PubMed Central

Lehman, Joel; Miikkulainen, Risto

2015-01-01

Extinction events impact the trajectory of biological evolution significantly. They are often viewed as upheavals to the evolutionary process. In contrast, this paper supports the hypothesis that although they are unpredictably destructive, extinction events may in the long term accelerate evolution by increasing evolvability. In particular, if extinction events extinguish indiscriminately many ways of life, indirectly they may select for the ability to expand rapidly through vacated niches. Lineages with such an ability are more likely to persist through multiple extinctions. Lending computational support for this hypothesis, this paper shows how increased evolvability will result from simulated extinction events in two computational models of evolved behavior. The conclusion is that although they are destructive in the short term, extinction events may make evolution more prolific in the long term. PMID:26266804

Long-term dynamics of adaptive evolution in a globally important phytoplankton species to ocean acidification

PubMed Central

Schlüter, Lothar; Lohbeck, Kai T.; Gröger, Joachim P.; Riebesell, Ulf; Reusch, Thorsten B. H.

2016-01-01

Marine phytoplankton may adapt to ocean change, such as acidification or warming, because of their large population sizes and short generation times. Long-term adaptation to novel environments is a dynamic process, and phenotypic change can take place thousands of generations after exposure to novel conditions. We conducted a long-term evolution experiment (4 years = 2100 generations), starting with a single clone of the abundant and widespread coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi exposed to three different CO2 levels simulating ocean acidification (OA). Growth rates as a proxy for Darwinian fitness increased only moderately under both levels of OA [+3.4% and +4.8%, respectively, at 1100 and 2200 μatm partial pressure of CO2 (Pco2)] relative to control treatments (ambient CO2, 400 μatm). Long-term adaptation to OA was complex, and initial phenotypic responses of ecologically important traits were later reverted. The biogeochemically important trait of calcification, in particular, that had initially been restored within the first year of evolution was later reduced to levels lower than the performance of nonadapted populations under OA. Calcification was not constitutively lost but returned to control treatment levels when high CO2–adapted isolates were transferred back to present-day control CO2 conditions. Selection under elevated CO2 exacerbated a general decrease of cell sizes under long-term laboratory evolution. Our results show that phytoplankton may evolve complex phenotypic plasticity that can affect biogeochemically important traits, such as calcification. Adaptive evolution may play out over longer time scales (>1 year) in an unforeseen way under future ocean conditions that cannot be predicted from initial adaptation responses. PMID:27419227

Temporal variations in the potential hydrological performance of extensive green roof systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De-Ville, Simon; Menon, Manoj; Stovin, Virginia

2018-03-01

Existing literature provides contradictory information about variation in potential green roof hydrological performance over time. This study has evaluated a long-term hydrological monitoring record from a series of extensive green roof test beds to identify long-term evolutions and sub-annual (seasonal) variations in potential hydrological performance. Monitoring of nine differently-configured extensive green roof test beds took place over a period of 6 years in Sheffield, UK. Long-term evolutions and sub-annual trends in maximum potential retention performance were identified through physical monitoring of substrate field capacity over time. An independent evaluation of temporal variations in detention performance was undertaken through the fitting of reservoir-routing model parameters. Aggregation of the resulting retention and detention variations permitted the prediction of extensive green roof hydrological performance in response to a 1-in-30-year 1-h summer design storm for Sheffield, UK, which facilitated the comparison of multi and sub-annual hydrological performance variations. Sub-annual (seasonal) variation was found to be significantly greater than long-term evolution. Potential retention performance increased by up to 12% after 5-years, whilst the maximum sub-annual variation in potential retention was 27%. For vegetated roof configurations, a 4% long-term improvement was observed for detention performance, compared to a maximum 63% sub-annual variation. Consistent long-term reductions in detention performance were observed in unvegetated roof configurations, with a non-standard expanded-clay substrate experiencing a 45% reduction in peak attenuation over 5-years. Conventional roof configurations exhibit stable long-term hydrological performance, but are nonetheless subject to sub-annual variation.

Impact of surrounding environment evolution on long-term gas flux measurements in a temperate mixed forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurdebise, Quentin; Rixen, Toma; De Ligne, Anne; Vincke, Caroline; Heinesch, Bernard; Aubinet, Marc

2016-04-01

With the development of eddy covariance networks like Fluxnet, ICOS or NEON, long-term data series of carbon dioxide, water vapor and other gas exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere will become more and more numerous. However, long-term analyses of such exchanges require a good understanding of measurement conditions during the investigated period. Independently of climate drivers, measurements may indeed be influenced by measurement conditions themselves subjected to long-term variability due to vegetation growth or set-up changes. The present research refers to the Vielsalm Terrestrial Observatory (VTO) where fluxes of momentum, carbon dioxide, latent and sensible heat have been continuously measured by eddy covariance during twenty years. VTO is an ICOS site installed in a mixed forest (beech, silver fir, Douglas fir, Norway spruce) in the Belgian Ardennes. A multidisciplinary approach was developed in order to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of several site characteristics: -displacement height (d) and relative measurement height (z-d) were determined using a spectral approach that compared observed and theoretical cospectra; -turbulence statistics were analyzed in the context of Monin-Obukhov similarity theory; -tree height during the measurement period was obtained by combining tree height inventories, a LIDAR survey and tree growth models; -measurement footprint was determined by using a footprint model. A good agreement was found between the three first approaches. Results show notably that z-d was subjected to both temporal and spatial evolution. Temporal evolution resulted from continuous tree growth as well as from a tower raise, achieved in 2009. Spatial evolution, due to canopy heterogeneity, was also observed. The impacts of these changes on measurements are investigated. In particular, it was shown that they affect measurement footprint, flux spectral corrections and flux quality. All these effects must be taken into consideration in order to disentangle long-term flux evolutions due to climate or phenology from changes resulting from measurement set-up changes.

Helium runaways in white dwarfs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taam, R. E.

1979-01-01

The long term evolution of an accreting carbon white dwarf was studied from the onset of accretion to the ignition of helium. The variations in the details of the helium shell flash examined with respect to variations in mass accretion rate. For intermediate rates the helium flash is potentially explosive whereas for high rates the shell flash is relatively weak. The results are discussed in the context of the long term evolution of novae.

Integration of ambient seismic noise monitoring, displacement and meteorological measurements to infer the temperature-controlled long-term evolution of a complex prone-to-fall cliff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombero, C.; Baillet, L.; Comina, C.; Jongmans, D.; Larose, E.; Valentin, J.; Vinciguerra, S.

2018-06-01

Monitoring the temporal evolution of resonance frequencies and velocity changes detected from ambient seismic noise recordings can help in recognizing reversible and irreversible modifications within unstable rock volumes. With this aim, the long-term ambient seismic noise data set acquired at the potentially unstable cliff of Madonna delSasso (NW Italian Alps) was analysed in this study, using both spectral analysis and cross-correlation techniques. Noise results were integrated and compared with direct displacement measurements and meteorological data, to understand the long-term evolution of the cliff. No irreversible modifications in the stability of the site were detected over the monitored period. Conversely, daily and seasonal air temperature fluctuations were found to control resonance frequency values, amplitudes and directivities and to induce reversible velocity changes within the fractured rock mass. The immediate modification in the noise parameters due to temperature fluctuations was interpreted as the result of rock mass thermal expansion and contraction, inducing variations in the contact stiffness along the fractures isolating two unstable compartments. Differences with previous case studies were highlighted in the long-term evolution of noise spectral amplitudes and directivities, due to the complex 3-D fracture setting of the site and to the combined effects of the two unstable compartments.

Evolution of collaboration within the US long term ecological research network

Treesearch

Jeffrey C. Johnson; Robert R. Christian; James W. Brunt; Caleb R. Hickman; Robert B. Waide

2010-01-01

The US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) program began in 1980 with the mission of addressing long-term ecological phenomena through research at individual sites, as well as comparative and synthetic activities among sites. We applied network science measures to assess how the LTER program has achieved its mission using intersite publications as the measure of...

On the long term evolution of white dwarfs in cataclysmic variables and their recurrence times

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sion, E. M.; Starrfield, S. G.

1985-01-01

The relevance of the long term quasi-static evolution of accreting white dwarfs to the outbursts of Z Andromeda-like symbiotics; the masses and accretion rates of classical nova white dwarfs; and the observed properties of white dwarfs detected optically and with IUE in low M dot cataclysmic variables is discussed. A surface luminosity versus time plot for a massive, hot white dwarf bears a remarkable similarity to the outburst behavior of the hot blue source in Z Andromeda. The long term quasi-static models of hot accreting white dwarfs provide convenient constraints on the theoretically permissible parameters to give a dynamical (nova-like) outburst of classic white dwarfs.

Numerical modeling of nonlinear modulation of coda wave interferometry in a multiple scattering medium with the presence of a localized micro-cracked zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Guangzhi; Pageot, Damien; Legland, Jean-Baptiste; Abraham, Odile; Chekroun, Mathieu; Tournat, Vincent

2018-04-01

The spectral element method is used to perform a parametric sensitivity study of the nonlinear coda wave interferometry (NCWI) method in a homogeneous sample with localized damage [1]. The influence of a strong pump wave on a localized nonlinear damage zone is modeled as modifications to the elastic properties of an effective damage zone (EDZ), depending on the pump wave amplitude. The local change of the elastic modulus and the attenuation coefficient have been shown to vary linearly with respect to the excitation amplitude of the pump wave as in previous experimental studies of Zhang et al. [2]. In this study, the boundary conditions of the cracks, i.e. clapping effects is taken into account in the modeling of the damaged zone. The EDZ is then modeled with random cracks of random orientations, new parametric studies are established to model the pump wave influence with two new parameters: the change of the crack length and the crack density. The numerical results reported constitute another step towards quantification and forecasting of the nonlinear acoustic response of a cracked material, which proves to be necessary for quantitative non-destructive evaluation.

Long-Term Evolution of the Sun and our Biosphere: Causes and Effects?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Des Marais, D. J.

2000-05-01

The course of early biological evolution felt the environmental consequences of changes in the solar output (discussed here), as well as long-term decreases in planetary heat flow and the flux of extraterrestrial impactors. A large, early UV flux fueled the photodissociation of atmospheric water vapor, sustaining a significant hydrogen flux to space. This flux caused Earth's crust to become oxidized, relative to its mantle. Accordingly, reduced gases and aqueous solutes that were erupted volcanically into the relatively more oxidized surface environment created sources of chemical redox energy for the origin and early evolution of life. Although the solar constant has increased some 30 percent over Earth's lifetime, oceans remained remarkably stable for more than 3.8 billion years. Thus a very effective climate regulation was probably achieved by decreasing over time the atmospheric inventories of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. Such decreases probably had major consequences for the biosphere. Substantial early marine bicarbonate and carbon dioxide inventories sustained abundant abiotic precipitation of carbonates, with consequences for the stability and habitability of key aqueous environments. A long-term decline in carbon dioxide levels increased the bioenergetic requirements for carbon dioxide as well as other aspects of the physiology of photosynthetic microorganisms. The long-term trend of global mean surface temperature is still debated, as is the role of the sun's evolution in that trend. Future increases in the solar constant will drive atmospheric carbon dioxide levels down further, challenging plants to cope with ever-dwindling concentrations of carbon substrates. Climate regulation will be achieved by modulating an increasing abundance of high-albedo water vapor clouds. Future biological evolution defies precise predictions, however it is certain that the sun's continuing evolution will play a key role.

Long-Term Evolution of Email Networks: Statistical Regularities, Predictability and Stability of Social Behaviors.

PubMed

Godoy-Lorite, Antonia; Guimerà, Roger; Sales-Pardo, Marta

2016-01-01

In social networks, individuals constantly drop ties and replace them by new ones in a highly unpredictable fashion. This highly dynamical nature of social ties has important implications for processes such as the spread of information or of epidemics. Several studies have demonstrated the influence of a number of factors on the intricate microscopic process of tie replacement, but the macroscopic long-term effects of such changes remain largely unexplored. Here we investigate whether, despite the inherent randomness at the microscopic level, there are macroscopic statistical regularities in the long-term evolution of social networks. In particular, we analyze the email network of a large organization with over 1,000 individuals throughout four consecutive years. We find that, although the evolution of individual ties is highly unpredictable, the macro-evolution of social communication networks follows well-defined statistical patterns, characterized by exponentially decaying log-variations of the weight of social ties and of individuals' social strength. At the same time, we find that individuals have social signatures and communication strategies that are remarkably stable over the scale of several years.

Long-term evolution of the western South Atlantic passive continental margin in a key area of SE Brazil revealed by thermokinematic numerical modeling using the software code Pecube

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stippich, Christian; Krob, Florian; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.; Hackspacher, Peter C.

2016-04-01

The aim of the research is to quantify the long-term evolution of the western South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in SE-Brazil. Excellent onshore outcrop conditions and extensive pre-rift to post-rift archives between São Paulo and Laguna allow a high precision quantification of exhumation, and rock uplift rates, influencing physical parameters, long-term acting forces, and process-response systems. Research will integrate published1 and partly published thermochronological data from Brazil, and test lately published new concepts on causes of long-term landscape and lithospheric evolution in southern Brazil. Six distinct lithospheric blocks (Laguna, Florianópolis, Curitiba, Ilha Comprida, Peruibe and Santos), which are separated by fracture zones1 are characterized by individual thermochronological age spectra. Furthermore, the thermal evolution derived by numerical modeling indicates variable post-rift exhumation histories of these blocks. In this context, we will provide information on the causes for the complex exhumation history of the Florianópolis, and adjacent blocks. The climate-continental margin-mantle coupled process-response system is caused by the interaction between endogenous and exogenous forces, which are related to the mantle-process driven rift - drift - passive continental margin evolution of the South Atlantic, and the climate change since the Early/Late Cretaceous climate maximum. Special emphasis will be given to the influence of long-living transform faults such as the Florianopolis Fracture Zone (FFZ) on the long-term topography evolution of the SAPCM's. A long-term landscape evolution model with process rates will be achieved by thermo-kinematic 3-D modeling (software code PECUBE2,3 and FastScape4). Testing model solutions obtained for a multidimensional parameter space against the real thermochronological and geomorphological data set, the most likely combinations of parameter rates, and values can be constrained. The data and models will allow separating the exogenous and endogenous forces and their process rates. References 1. Karl, M., Glasmacher, U.A., Kollenz, S., Franco-Magalhaes, A.O.B., Stockli, D.F., Hackspacher, P., 2013. Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data. Tectonophysics, Volume 604, Pages 224-244. 2. Braun, J., 2003. Pecube: A new finite element code to solve the 3D heat transport equation including the effects of a time-varying, finite amplitude surface topography. Computers and Geosciences, v.29, pp.787-794. 3. Braun, J., van der Beek, P., Valla, P., Robert, X., Herman, F., Goltzbacj, C., Pedersen, V., Perry, C., Simon-Labric, T., Prigent, C. 2012. Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE. Tectonophysics, v.524-525, pp.1-28. 4. Braun, J. and Willett, S.D., 2013. A very efficient, O(n), implicit and parallel method to solve the basic stream power law equation governing fluvial incision and landscape evolution. Geomorphology, v.180-181, 170-179.

Using Decision Structures for Policy Analysis in Software Product-line Evolution - A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarang, Nita; Sanglikar, Mukund A.

Project management decisions are the primary basis for project success (or failure). Mostly, such decisions are based on an intuitive understanding of the underlying software engineering and management process and have a likelihood of being misjudged. Our problem domain is product-line evolution. We model the dynamics of the process by incorporating feedback loops appropriate to two decision structures: staffing policy, and the forces of growth associated with long-term software evolution. The model is executable and supports project managers to assess the long-term effects of possible actions. Our work also corroborates results from earlier studies of E-type systems, in particular the FEAST project and the rules for software evolution, planning and management.

Wind-Driven Global Evolution of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Xue-Ning

It has been realized in the recent years that magnetized disk winds disk- likely play a decisive role in the global evolution of protoplanetary disks protoplanetary evolution (PPDs). Motivated by recent local simulations local , we first describe a global magnetized disk wind model, from which wind-driven accretion rate -rate wind-driven and wind mass loss rate can be reliably estimated. Both rates are shown to strongly depend on the amount of magnetic flux magnetic threading the disk. Wind kinematics is also affected by thermodynamics in the wind zone (particularly far UV heating/ionization), and the mass loss process loss- can be better termed as "magneto-photoevaporation." We then construct a framework of PPD global evolution global that incorporates wind-driven and viscously driven accretion viscously-driven as well as wind mass loss. For typical PPD accretion rates, the required field strength would lead to wind mass loss rate at least comparable to disk accretion rate, and mass loss is most significant in the outer disk (beyond ˜ 10 AU). Finally, we discuss the transport of magnetic flux in PPDs, which largely governs the long-term evolution long-term of PPDs.

Short- and Long-term Evolutionary Dynamics of Bacterial Insertion Sequences: Insights from Wolbachia Endosymbionts

PubMed Central

Cerveau, Nicolas; Leclercq, Sébastien; Leroy, Elodie; Bouchon, Didier; Cordaux, Richard

2011-01-01

Transposable elements (TE) are one of the major driving forces of genome evolution, raising the question of the long-term dynamics underlying their evolutionary success. Long-term TE evolution can readily be reconstructed in eukaryotes, thanks to many degraded copies constituting genomic fossil records of past TE proliferations. By contrast, bacterial genomes usually experience high sequence turnover and short TE retention times, thereby obscuring ancient TE evolutionary patterns. We found that Wolbachia bacterial genomes contain 52–171 insertion sequence (IS) TEs. IS account for 11% of Wolbachia wRi, which is one of the highest IS genomic coverage reported in prokaryotes to date. We show that many IS groups are currently expanding in various Wolbachia genomes and that IS horizontal transfers are frequent among strains, which can explain the apparent synchronicity of these IS proliferations. Remarkably, >70% of Wolbachia IS are nonfunctional. They constitute an unusual bacterial IS genomic fossil record providing direct empirical evidence for a long-term IS evolutionary dynamics following successive periods of intense transpositional activity. Our results show that comprehensive IS annotations have the potential to provide new insights into prokaryote TE evolution and, more generally, prokaryote genome evolution. Indeed, the identification of an important IS genomic fossil record in Wolbachia demonstrates that IS elements are not always of recent origin, contrary to the conventional view of TE evolution in prokaryote genomes. Our results also raise the question whether the abundance of IS fossils is specific to Wolbachia or it may be a general, albeit overlooked, feature of prokaryote genomes. PMID:21940637

Short- and long-term evolutionary dynamics of bacterial insertion sequences: insights from Wolbachia endosymbionts.

PubMed

Cerveau, Nicolas; Leclercq, Sébastien; Leroy, Elodie; Bouchon, Didier; Cordaux, Richard

2011-01-01

Transposable elements (TE) are one of the major driving forces of genome evolution, raising the question of the long-term dynamics underlying their evolutionary success. Long-term TE evolution can readily be reconstructed in eukaryotes, thanks to many degraded copies constituting genomic fossil records of past TE proliferations. By contrast, bacterial genomes usually experience high sequence turnover and short TE retention times, thereby obscuring ancient TE evolutionary patterns. We found that Wolbachia bacterial genomes contain 52-171 insertion sequence (IS) TEs. IS account for 11% of Wolbachia wRi, which is one of the highest IS genomic coverage reported in prokaryotes to date. We show that many IS groups are currently expanding in various Wolbachia genomes and that IS horizontal transfers are frequent among strains, which can explain the apparent synchronicity of these IS proliferations. Remarkably, >70% of Wolbachia IS are nonfunctional. They constitute an unusual bacterial IS genomic fossil record providing direct empirical evidence for a long-term IS evolutionary dynamics following successive periods of intense transpositional activity. Our results show that comprehensive IS annotations have the potential to provide new insights into prokaryote TE evolution and, more generally, prokaryote genome evolution. Indeed, the identification of an important IS genomic fossil record in Wolbachia demonstrates that IS elements are not always of recent origin, contrary to the conventional view of TE evolution in prokaryote genomes. Our results also raise the question whether the abundance of IS fossils is specific to Wolbachia or it may be a general, albeit overlooked, feature of prokaryote genomes.

Evolution of neuroleptic-induced extrapyramidal syndromes under long-term neuroleptic treatment.

PubMed

Modestin, Jiri; Wehrli, Marianne Vogt; Stephan, Patrik Lukas; Agarwalla, Puspa

2008-03-01

The long-term evolution of neuroleptic-induced extrapyramidal syndromes (EPS) of Parkinsonism, akathisia and tardive dyskinesia (TD) is still a controversial issue worth exploring. A total of 200 inpatients on regular typical neuroleptics (NL) and/or clozapine were assessed in 1995 with regard to the prevalence of EPS. Altogether, 83 patients could be reassessed in 2003/04 (63 had died) using the same methods. Strict definitions of EPS were used. The complete account of NL therapy the patients were prescribed between 1995 and 2003/04 (including atypical NL other than clozapine) was considered. The prevalences found in 1995 and 2003/04 were 17% and 29% for Parkinsonism, 14% and 14% for akathisia, and 24% and 13% for TD. There were considerable intra-individual fluctuations in EPS occurrence even when the overall prevalence rate remained the same. In intra-individual comparisons of EPS ratings on both assessments, there was a tendency for worsening of Parkinsonism to be associated with a current (2003/04) therapy with typical NL; worsening of akathisia was associated with a current therapy with atypical NL other than clozapine, amelioration of akathisia with a current therapy with clozapine; and, basically, there were no significant associations found between the changes in TD ratings and the long-term therapy with typical NL, clozapine, and other atypical NL, considering cumulative doses of all these drugs. In a multivariate analysis, there was a tendency for the long-term evolution of TD to depend on illness duration as the only variable. There are intra-individual fluctuations in all EPS over longer time periods. The choice of current NL therapy has an impact on Parkinsonism and akathisia. The long-term evolution of TD appears independent of NL prescriptions.

Evaluating Quality Circles in U.S. Industry: A Feasibility Study.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-06-30

are the following: whether the ,.-~. .- "i. 24 circle is cost-effective, whether it deals with long-range rather than crisis problems, whether the...Chapter 4. The evolution of the Japanese instruments took into consideration the nature of the Japanese work setting. To assist in the transculturation ...crises rather than implementing long-term change? Name____________________ Short-term, Long-Term, Title______________________ crisis on-going oriented

Competitive fitness during feast and famine: how SOS DNA polymerases influence physiology and evolution in Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Corzett, Christopher H; Goodman, Myron F; Finkel, Steven E

2013-06-01

Escherichia coli DNA polymerases (Pol) II, IV, and V serve dual roles by facilitating efficient translesion DNA synthesis while simultaneously introducing genetic variation that can promote adaptive evolution. Here we show that these alternative polymerases are induced as cells transition from exponential to long-term stationary-phase growth in the absence of induction of the SOS regulon by external agents that damage DNA. By monitoring the relative fitness of isogenic mutant strains expressing only one alternative polymerase over time, spanning hours to weeks, we establish distinct growth phase-dependent hierarchies of polymerase mutant strain competitiveness. Pol II confers a significant physiological advantage by facilitating efficient replication and creating genetic diversity during periods of rapid growth. Pol IV and Pol V make the largest contributions to evolutionary fitness during long-term stationary phase. Consistent with their roles providing both a physiological and an adaptive advantage during stationary phase, the expression patterns of all three SOS polymerases change during the transition from log phase to long-term stationary phase. Compared to the alternative polymerases, Pol III transcription dominates during mid-exponential phase; however, its abundance decreases to <20% during long-term stationary phase. Pol IV transcription dominates as cells transition out of exponential phase into stationary phase and a burst of Pol V transcription is observed as cells transition from death phase to long-term stationary phase. These changes in alternative DNA polymerase transcription occur in the absence of SOS induction by exogenous agents and indicate that cell populations require appropriate expression of all three alternative DNA polymerases during exponential, stationary, and long-term stationary phases to attain optimal fitness and undergo adaptive evolution.

X-Ray Enhancement and Long-term Evolution of Swift J1822.3-1606

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benli, Onur; Çalışkan, Ş.; Ertan, Ü.; Alpar, M. A.; Trümper, J. E.; Kylafis, N. D.

2013-12-01

We investigate the X-ray enhancement and the long-term evolution of the recently discovered second "low-B magnetar" Swift J1822.3-1606 in the frame of the fallback disk model. During a soft gamma burst episode, the inner disk matter is pushed back to larger radii, forming a density gradient at the inner disk. Subsequent relaxation of the inner disk could account for the observed X-ray enhancement light curve of Swift J1822.3-1606. We obtain model fits to the X-ray data with basic disk parameters similar to those employed to explain the X-ray outburst light curves of other anomalous X-ray pulsars and soft gamma repeaters. The long period (8.4 s) of the neutron star can be reached by the effect of the disk torques in the long-term accretion phase ((1-3) × 105 yr). The currently ongoing X-ray enhancement could be due to a transient accretion epoch, or the source could still be in the accretion phase in quiescence. Considering these different possibilities, we determine the model curves that could represent the long-term rotational and the X-ray luminosity evolution of Swift J1822.3-1606, which constrain the strength of the magnetic dipole field to the range of (1-2) × 1012 G on the surface of the neutron star.

The Role of Deformation Energetics in Long-Term Tectonic Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahamed, S.; Choi, E.

2017-12-01

The deformation-related energy budget is usually considered in the simplest form or even entirely omitted from the energy balance equation. We derive a full energy balance equation that accounts not only for heat energy but also for mechanical (elastic, plastic and viscous) work. The derived equation is implemented in DES3D, an unstructured finite element solver for long-term tectonic deformation. We verify the implementation by comparing numerical solutions to the corresponding semi-analytic solutions in three benchmarks extended from the classical oedometer test. We also investigate the long-term effects of deformation energetics on the evolution of large offset normal faults. We find that the models considering the full energy balance equation tend to produce more secondary faults and an elongated core complex. Our results for the normal fault system confirm that persistent inelastic deformation has a significant impact on the long-term evolution of faults, motivating further exploration of the role of the full energy balance equation in other geodynamic systems.

Rapid response of tidal channel networks to sea-level variations (Venice Lagoon, Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rizzetto, Federica; Tosi, Luigi

2012-07-01

The aim of the present paper is to examine the effects of long- and short-term sea-level fluctuations (i.e. relative sea-level rise and tides) on the geomorphologic evolution of modern tidal channels through the joint interpretation of channel modifications, the 1938-2010 yearly time series of relative sea-level rise, and the variations of strength and frequency of high tides which occurred in the same period. We analyzed a salt marsh area not particularly modified by human interventions, located in the northern Venice Lagoon, Italy. The availability of a long historical record of high-resolution aerial photographs provided us the opportunity to reconstruct in detail the evolution of the drainage patterns from 1938 to the present. Results from our analyses gave us information about the degree of control of long- and short-term sea-level fluctuations on planimetric development of tidal channels and provided demonstration of the rapid response of the drainage network to these oscillations. We found that both relative sea-level rise and high tide frequency greatly influenced salt marsh margin shift and meander evolution of tidal channels in the long term, but short-term sinuosity changes of creeks were often also closely related to tide variations. Channels nearer the marsh margin were more exposed to the action of the increasing tides.

Carbides Evolution in a Ni-16Mo-7Cr Base Superalloy during Long-Term Thermal Exposure

PubMed Central

Han, Fenfen; Jiang, Li; Ye, Xiangxi; Lu, Yanling; Li, Zhijun; Zhou, Xingtai

2017-01-01

The effect of long-term thermal exposure on the carbide evolution in a Ni-16Mo-7Cr base superalloy was investigated. The results show that M12C carbides are mainly precipitated on the grain boundaries during thermal exposure, and the primary massive M6C carbides can be completely transformed to M12C carbides in situ at temperatures above 750 °C for long-term thermal exposure. The transformation from M6C carbides to M12C carbides is attributed to the release of C atoms from M6C, which results in the morphology changes of massive carbides, and stabilization of the sizes of M12C carbides precipitated on the grain boundaries. PMID:28772881

Unpredictable evolution in a 30-year study of Darwin's finches.

PubMed

Grant, Peter R; Grant, B Rosemary

2002-04-26

Evolution can be predicted in the short term from a knowledge of selection and inheritance. However, in the long term evolution is unpredictable because environments, which determine the directions and magnitudes of selection coefficients, fluctuate unpredictably. These two features of evolution, the predictable and unpredictable, are demonstrated in a study of two populations of Darwin's finches on the Galápagos island of Daphne Major. From 1972 to 2001, Geospiza fortis (medium ground finch) and Geospiza scandens (cactus finch) changed several times in body size and two beak traits. Natural selection occurred frequently in both species and varied from unidirectional to oscillating, episodic to gradual. Hybridization occurred repeatedly though rarely, resulting in elevated phenotypic variances in G. scandens and a change in beak shape. The phenotypic states of both species at the end of the 30-year study could not have been predicted at the beginning. Continuous, long-term studies are needed to detect and interpret rare but important events and nonuniform evolutionary change.

Evolution of a short-term study of lodgepole pine dwarf mistletoe vectors that turned into a long-term study of the remarkable gray jay on the Fraser Experimental Forest,Colorado, 1982-2009

Treesearch

Thomas H. Nicholls

2014-01-01

This is a summary of a 5-year short-term study that evolved into 28 years of long-term research on the US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service's Fraser Experimental Forest in Colorado. The study was begun in 1982 by Forest Service Research Scientists Thomas H. Nicholls and Frank G. Hawksworth to determine the importance of mammal and bird vectors in the long-...

Long-Term Evolution of a Long-Term Evolution Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-01-01

equations for the movement of the dune toe yD and the berm crest location yB are dyD/dt=(qw-qo)/DD and dyB/dt=-(qw-qo)/(DB+DC) respectively, where qw...and sand properties, yB and yD = distances to the seaward end of the berm and the dune toe , respectively, with the y-axis pointing offshore, y50...relative to mean sea level, MSL); zD = dune toe elevation (with respect to MSL); T = swash period (taken to be the same as the wave period); and Cs

The D/H ratio and the evolution of water in the terrestrial planets.

PubMed

de Bergh, C

1993-02-01

The presence of liquid water at the surface of the Earth has played a major role in the biological evolution of the Earth. None of the other terrestrial planets--Mercury, Venus and Mars--has liquid water at its surface. However, it has been suggested, since the early seventies, from both geological and atmospheric arguments that, although Venus and Mars are presently devoid of liquid water, their surfaces could have been partially or completely covered by water at some time of their evolution. There are many possible diagnostics of the long-term evolution of the planets, either from the present characteristics of their surfaces or from their present atmospheric compositions. Among them, the present value of the D/H ratio is of particular interest, although its significance in terms of long term evolution has been challenged by some authors. Recent progress has been made in this field. We now have evidence for higher D/H ratios on Mars and Venus than on Earth, with an enrichment factor of the order of 5 on Mars, and about 100 on Venus. Any scenario for the evolution of these planets must take this into The most recent models on the evolution of Mars and Venus are reviewed in light of these new measurements.

Evaluating Long-Term Disability Insurance Plans.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Jan

1992-01-01

This report analyzes the factors involved in reviewing benefits and services of employer-sponsored group long-term disability plans for higher education institutions. Opening sections describe the evolution of disability insurance and its shape today. Further sections looks at the complex nature of "value" within a plan, relationship…

Convergent Metabolic Specialization through Distinct Evolutionary Paths in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PubMed Central

Johansen, Helle Krogh; Molin, Søren

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Evolution by natural selection under complex and dynamic environmental conditions occurs through intricate and often counterintuitive trajectories affecting many genes and metabolic solutions. To study short- and long-term evolution of bacteria in vivo, we used the natural model system of cystic fibrosis (CF) infection. In this work, we investigated how and through which trajectories evolution of Pseudomonas aeruginosa occurs when migrating from the environment to the airways of CF patients, and specifically, we determined reduction of growth rate and metabolic specialization as signatures of adaptive evolution. We show that central metabolic pathways of three distinct Pseudomonas aeruginosa lineages coevolving within the same environment become restructured at the cost of versatility during long-term colonization. Cell physiology changes from naive to adapted phenotypes resulted in (i) alteration of growth potential that particularly converged to a slow-growth phenotype, (ii) alteration of nutritional requirements due to auxotrophy, (iii) tailored preference for carbon source assimilation from CF sputum, (iv) reduced arginine and pyruvate fermentation processes, and (v) increased oxygen requirements. Interestingly, although convergence was evidenced at the phenotypic level of metabolic specialization, comparative genomics disclosed diverse mutational patterns underlying the different evolutionary trajectories. Therefore, distinct combinations of genetic and regulatory changes converge to common metabolic adaptive trajectories leading to within-host metabolic specialization. This study gives new insight into bacterial metabolic evolution during long-term colonization of a new environmental niche. PMID:29636437

Evolution of double white dwarf binaries undergoing direct-impact accretion: Implications for gravitational wave astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kremer, Kyle; Breivik, Katelyn; Larson, Shane L.; Kalogera, Vassiliki

2017-01-01

For close double white dwarf binaries, the mass-transfer phenomenon known as direct-impact accretion (when the mass transfer stream impacts the accretor directly rather than forming a disc) may play a pivotal role in the long-term evolution of the systems. In this analysis, we explore the long-term evolution of white dwarf binaries accreting through direct-impact and explore implications of such systems to gravitational wave astronomy. We cover a broad range of parameter space which includes initial component masses and the strength of tidal coupling, and show that these systems, which lie firmly within the LISA frequency range, show strong negative chirps which can last as long as several million years. Detections of double white dwarf systems in the direct-impact phase by detectors such as LISA would provide astronomers with unique ways of probing the physics governing close compact object binaries.

Leaf Evolution: Gases, Genes and Geochemistry

PubMed Central

BEERLING, DAVID J.

2005-01-01

• Aims This Botanical Briefing reviews how the integration of palaeontology, geochemistry and developmental biology is providing a new mechanistic framework for interpreting the 40- to 50-million-year gap between the origination of vascular land plants and the advent of large (megaphyll) leaves, a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. • Scope Molecular genetics indicates that the developmental mechanisms required for leaf production in vascular plants were recruited long before the advent of large megaphylls. According to theory, this morphogenetic potential was only realized as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 declined during the late Palaeozoic. Surprisingly, plants effectively policed their own evolution since the decrease in CO2 was brought about as terrestrial floras evolved accelerating the rate of silicate rock weathering and enhancing sedimentary organic carbon burial, both of which are long-term sinks for CO2. • Conclusions The recognition that plant evolution responds to and influences CO2 over millions of years reveals the existence of an intricate web of vegetation feedbacks regulating the long-term carbon cycle. Several of these feedbacks destabilized CO2 and climate during the late Palaeozoic but appear to have quickened the pace of terrestrial plant and animal evolution at that time. PMID:15965270

Leaf evolution: gases, genes and geochemistry.

PubMed

Beerling, David J

2005-09-01

This Botanical Briefing reviews how the integration of palaeontology, geochemistry and developmental biology is providing a new mechanistic framework for interpreting the 40- to 50-million-year gap between the origination of vascular land plants and the advent of large (megaphyll) leaves, a long-standing puzzle in evolutionary biology. Molecular genetics indicates that the developmental mechanisms required for leaf production in vascular plants were recruited long before the advent of large megaphylls. According to theory, this morphogenetic potential was only realized as the concentration of atmospheric CO2 declined during the late Palaeozoic. Surprisingly, plants effectively policed their own evolution since the decrease in CO2 was brought about as terrestrial floras evolved accelerating the rate of silicate rock weathering and enhancing sedimentary organic carbon burial, both of which are long-term sinks for CO2. The recognition that plant evolution responds to and influences CO(2) over millions of years reveals the existence of an intricate web of vegetation feedbacks regulating the long-term carbon cycle. Several of these feedbacks destabilized CO2 and climate during the late Palaeozoic but appear to have quickened the pace of terrestrial plant and animal evolution at that time.

The changing flow of management information systems in long-term care facilities.

PubMed

Stokes, D F

1997-08-01

Over the past three decades, the long-term care community has seen continual increases in the complexity and sophistication of management information systems. These changes have been brought about by the ever-increasing demands on owners and managers to provide accurate and timely data to both regulators and financial investors. The evolution of these systems has increased rapidly in recent years as the nation attempts to reinvent the funding mechanisms for long-term care.

Long-Term Dynamics of Autonomous Fractional Differential Equations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Tao; Xu, Wei; Xu, Yong; Han, Qun

This paper aims to investigate long-term dynamic behaviors of autonomous fractional differential equations with effective numerical method. The long-term dynamic behaviors predict where systems are heading after long-term evolution. We make some modification and transplant cell mapping methods to autonomous fractional differential equations. The mapping time duration of cell mapping is enlarged to deal with the long memory effect. Three illustrative examples, i.e. fractional Lotka-Volterra equation, fractional van der Pol oscillator and fractional Duffing equation, are studied with our revised generalized cell mapping method. We obtain long-term dynamics, such as attractors, basins of attraction, and saddles. Compared with some existing stability and numerical results, the validity of our method is verified. Furthermore, we find that the fractional order has its effect on the long-term dynamics of autonomous fractional differential equations.

Functional chloroplasts in metazoan cells - a unique evolutionary strategy in animal life

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Among metazoans, retention of functional diet-derived chloroplasts (kleptoplasty) is known only from the sea slug taxon Sacoglossa (Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia). Intracellular maintenance of plastids in the slug's digestive epithelium has long attracted interest given its implications for understanding the evolution of endosymbiosis. However, photosynthetic ability varies widely among sacoglossans; some species have no plastid retention while others survive for months solely on photosynthesis. We present a molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the Sacoglossa and a survey of kleptoplasty from representatives of all major clades. We sought to quantify variation in photosynthetic ability among lineages, identify phylogenetic origins of plastid retention, and assess whether kleptoplasty was a key character in the radiation of the Sacoglossa. Results Three levels of photosynthetic activity were detected: (1) no functional retention; (2) short-term retention lasting about one week; and (3) long-term retention for over a month. Phylogenetic analysis of one nuclear and two mitochondrial loci revealed reciprocal monophyly of the shelled Oxynoacea and shell-less Plakobranchacea, the latter comprising a monophyletic Plakobranchoidea and paraphyletic Limapontioidea. Only species in the Plakobranchoidea expressed short- or long-term kleptoplasty, most belonging to a speciose clade of slugs bearing parapodia (lateral flaps covering the dorsum). Bayesian ancestral character state reconstructions indicated that functional short-term retention arose once in the last common ancestor of Plakobranchoidea, and independently evolved into long-term retention in four derived species. Conclusion We propose a sequential progression from short- to long-term kleptoplasty, with different adaptations involved in each step. Short-term kleptoplasty likely arose as a deficiency in plastid digestion, yielding additional energy via the release of fixed carbon. Functional short-term retention was an apomorphy of the Plakobranchoidea, but the subsequent evolution of parapodia enabled slugs to protect kleptoplasts against high irradiance and further prolong plastid survival. We conclude that functional short-term retention was necessary but not sufficient for an adaptive radiation in the Plakobranchoidea, especially in the genus Elysia which comprises a third of all sacoglossan species. The adaptations necessary for long-term chloroplast survival arose independently in species feeding on different algal hosts, providing a valuable study system for examining the parallel evolution of this unique trophic strategy. PMID:19951407

Microstructural Evolution of Thor™ 115 Creep-Strength Enhanced Ferritic Steel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ortolani, Matteo; D'Incau, Mirco; Ciancio, Regina; Scardi, Paolo

2017-12-01

A new ferritic steel branded as Thor™ 115 has been developed to enhance high-temperature resistance. The steel design combines an improved oxidation resistance with long-term microstructural stability. The new alloy, cast to different product forms such as plates and tubes, was extensively tested to assess the high-temperature time-dependent mechanical behavior (creep). The main strengthening mechanism is precipitation hardening by finely dispersed carbide and nitride phases. Information on the evolution of secondary phases and time-temperature-precipitation behavior of the alloy, essential to ensure long-term property stability, was obtained by scanning transmission electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy, and by X-ray Powder Diffraction on specimens aged up to 50,000 hours. A thermodynamic modeling supports presentation and evaluation of the experimental results. The evolution of precipitates in the new alloy confirms the retention of the strengthening by secondary phases, even after long-term exposure at high temperature. The deleterious conversion of nitrides into Z phase is shown to be in line with, or even slower than that of the comparable ASME grade 91 steel.

Quantifying long-term evolution of intra-urban spatial interactions

PubMed Central

Sun, Lijun; Jin, Jian Gang; Axhausen, Kay W.; Lee, Der-Horng; Cebrian, Manuel

2015-01-01

Understanding the long-term impact that changes in a city's transportation infrastructure have on its spatial interactions remains a challenge. The difficulty arises from the fact that the real impact may not be revealed in static or aggregated mobility measures, as these are remarkably robust to perturbations. More generally, the lack of longitudinal, cross-sectional data demonstrating the evolution of spatial interactions at a meaningful urban scale also hinders us from evaluating the sensitivity of movement indicators, limiting our capacity to understand the evolution of urban mobility in depth. Using very large mobility records distributed over 3 years, we quantify the impact of the completion of a metro line extension: the Circle Line (CCL) in Singapore. We find that the commonly used movement indicators are almost identical before and after the project was completed. However, in comparing the temporal community structure across years, we do observe significant differences in the spatial reorganization of the affected geographical areas. The completion of CCL enables travellers to re-identify their desired destinations collectively with lower transport cost, making the community structure more consistent. These changes in locality are dynamic and characterized over short timescales, offering us a different approach to identify and analyse the long-term impact of new infrastructures on cities and their evolution dynamics. PMID:25551142

Darwinian Evolution of Mutualistic RNA Replicators with Different Genes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizuuchi, R.; Ichihashi, N.

2017-07-01

We report a sustainable long-term replication and evolution of two distinct cooperative RNA replicators encoding different genes. One of the RNAs evolved to maintain or increase the cooperativity, despite selective advantage of selfish mutations.

Long-term nitrogen addition causes the evolution of less-cooperative mutualists.

PubMed

Weese, Dylan J; Heath, Katy D; Dentinger, Bryn T M; Lau, Jennifer A

2015-03-01

Human activities have altered the global nitrogen (N) cycle, and as a result, elevated N inputs are causing profound ecological changes in diverse ecosystems. The evolutionary consequences of this global change have been largely ignored even though elevated N inputs are predicted to cause mutualism breakdown and the evolution of decreased cooperation between resource mutualists. Using a long-term (22 years) N-addition experiment, we find that elevated N inputs have altered the legume-rhizobium mutualism (where rhizobial bacteria trade N in exchange for photosynthates from legumes), causing the evolution of less-mutualistic rhizobia. Plants inoculated with rhizobium strains isolated from N-fertilized treatments produced 17-30% less biomass and had reduced chlorophyll content compared to plants inoculated with strains from unfertilized control plots. Because the legume-rhizobium mutualism is the major contributor of naturally fixed N to terrestrial ecosystems, the evolution of less-cooperative rhizobia may have important environmental consequences. © 2015 The Author(s).

Mechanical properties and microstructural evolution of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel after long-term aging for 50,000 h

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Jong-Hyuk; Kim, Sung-Ho; Lee, Chan-Bock; Hahn, Do-Hee

2009-08-01

The mechanical properties and microstructural evolution of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel have been studied to investigate steel property changes after long-term isothermal aging at 600 °C for 50,000 h. The microhardness and strength were maintained constantly after aging but the impact energy was dramatically reduced by 62 % during the aging period. From the viewpoint of microstructural evolution after the aging process, Cr-enrichment and Fe-depletion took place within the M23C6-type precipitates in the as-aged steel and V-depletion also happened within the VX-type precipitates after aging. In addition, the precipitates of the M2Mo-type Laves phase and the segregation of the impurity atoms would be formed during the long-term aging period. It was considered that the sharp reduction of the impact energy could be related to the formation of the Laves phases and the impurity segregation after aging at 600 °C. The phase stability was also verified by the specific heat results up to 950 °C from a DSC test. It was concluded from this study that the modified 9Cr-1Mo steel would keep its microstructural stability at 600 °C during the long-term aging period of 50,000 h, which was equivalent to the in-service life of the SFR fuel cladding.

Long-term strength and damage accumulation in laminates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dzenis, Yuris A.; Joshi, Shiv P.

1993-04-01

A modified version of the probabilistic model developed by authors for damage evolution analysis of laminates subjected to random loading is utilized to predict long-term strength of laminates. The model assumes that each ply in a laminate consists of a large number of mesovolumes. Probabilistic variation functions for mesovolumes stiffnesses as well as strengths are used in the analysis. Stochastic strains are calculated using the lamination theory and random function theory. Deterioration of ply stiffnesses is calculated on the basis of the probabilities of mesovolumes failures using the theory of excursions of random process beyond the limits. Long-term strength and damage accumulation in a Kevlar/epoxy laminate under tension and complex in-plane loading are investigated. Effects of the mean level and stochastic deviation of loading on damage evolution and time-to-failure of laminate are discussed. Long-term cumulative damage at the time of the final failure at low loading levels is more than at high loading levels. The effect of the deviation in loading is more pronounced at lower mean loading levels.

Everolimus-eluting stents in interventional cardiology

PubMed Central

Townsend, Jacob C; Rideout, Phillip; Steinberg, Daniel H

2012-01-01

Bare metal stents have a proven safety record, but limited long-term efficacy due to in-stent restenosis. First-generation drug-eluting stents successfully countered the restenosis rate, but were hampered by concerns about their long-term safety. Second generation drug-eluting stents have combined the low restenosis rate of the first generation with improved long-term safety. We review the evolution of drug-eluting stents with a focus on the safety, efficacy, and unique characteristics of everolimus-eluting stents. PMID:22910420

Space Life Sciences Research: The Importance of Long-Term Space Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1993-01-01

This report focuses on the scientific importance of long-term space experiments for the advancement of biological science and the benefit of humankind. It includes a collection of papers that explore the scientific potential provided by the capability to manipulate organisms by removing a force that has been instrumental in the evolution and development of all organisms. Further, it provides the scientific justification for why the long-term space exposure that can be provided by a space station is essential to conduct significant research.

The long-term carbon cycle, fossil fuels and atmospheric composition.

PubMed

Berner, Robert A

2003-11-20

The long-term carbon cycle operates over millions of years and involves the exchange of carbon between rocks and the Earth's surface. There are many complex feedback pathways between carbon burial, nutrient cycling, atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen, and climate. New calculations of carbon fluxes during the Phanerozoic eon (the past 550 million years) illustrate how the long-term carbon cycle has affected the burial of organic matter and fossil-fuel formation, as well as the evolution of atmospheric composition.

Non-linear hydrodynamical evolution of rotating relativistic stars: numerical methods and code tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Font, José A.; Stergioulas, Nikolaos; Kokkotas, Kostas D.

2000-04-01

We present numerical hydrodynamical evolutions of rapidly rotating relativistic stars, using an axisymmetric, non-linear relativistic hydrodynamics code. We use four different high-resolution shock-capturing (HRSC) finite-difference schemes (based on approximate Riemann solvers) and compare their accuracy in preserving uniformly rotating stationary initial configurations in long-term evolutions. Among these four schemes, we find that the third-order piecewise parabolic method scheme is superior in maintaining the initial rotation law in long-term evolutions, especially near the surface of the star. It is further shown that HRSC schemes are suitable for the evolution of perturbed neutron stars and for the accurate identification (via Fourier transforms) of normal modes of oscillation. This is demonstrated for radial and quadrupolar pulsations in the non-rotating limit, where we find good agreement with frequencies obtained with a linear perturbation code. The code can be used for studying small-amplitude or non-linear pulsations of differentially rotating neutron stars, while our present results serve as testbed computations for three-dimensional general-relativistic evolution codes.

Long-term effects of user preference-oriented recommendation method on the evolution of online system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoyu; Shang, Ming-Sheng; Luo, Xin; Khushnood, Abbas; Li, Jian

2017-02-01

As the explosion growth of Internet economy, recommender system has become an important technology to solve the problem of information overload. However, recommenders are not one-size-fits-all, different recommenders have different virtues, making them be suitable for different users. In this paper, we propose a novel personalized recommender based on user preferences, which allows multiple recommenders to exist in E-commerce system simultaneously. We find that output of a recommender to each user is quite different when using different recommenders, the recommendation accuracy can be significantly improved if each user is assigned with his/her optimal personalized recommender. Furthermore, different from previous works focusing on short-term effects on recommender, we also evaluate the long-term effect of the proposed method by modeling the evolution of mutual feedback between user and online system. Finally, compared with single recommender running on the online system, the proposed method can improve the accuracy of recommendation significantly and get better trade-offs between short- and long-term performances of recommendation.

Long-term adaptation of the influenza A virus by escaping cytotoxic T-cell recognition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woolthuis, Rutger G.; van Dorp, Christiaan H.; Keşmir, Can; de Boer, Rob J.; van Boven, Michiel

2016-09-01

The evolutionary adaptation of the influenza A virus (IAV) to human antibodies is well characterised. Much less is known about the long-term evolution of cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes, which are important antigens for clearance of infection. We construct an antigenic map of IAVs of all human subtypes using a compendium of 142 confirmed CTL epitopes, and show that IAV evolved gradually in the period 1932-2015, with infrequent antigenic jumps in the H3N2 subtype. Intriguingly, the number of CTL epitopes per virus decreases with more than one epitope per three years in the H3N2 subtype (from 84 epitopes per virus in 1968 to 64 in 2015), mostly attributed to the loss of HLA-B epitopes. We confirm these observations with epitope predictions. Our findings indicate that selection pressures imposed by CTL immunity shape the long-term evolution of IAV.

Individuals and populations: the role of long-term, individual-based studies of animals in ecology and evolutionary biology.

PubMed

Clutton-Brock, Tim; Sheldon, Ben C

2010-10-01

Many important questions in ecology and evolutionary biology can only be answered with data that extend over several decades and answering a substantial proportion of questions requires records of the life histories of recognisable individuals. We identify six advantages that long-term, individual based studies afford in ecology and evolution: (i) analysis of age structure; (ii) linkage between life history stages; (iii) quantification of social structure; (iv) derivation of lifetime fitness measures; (v) replication of estimates of selection; (vi) linkage between generations, and we review their impact on studies in six key areas of evolution and ecology. Our review emphasises the unusual opportunities and productivity of long-term, individual-based studies and documents the important role that they play in research on ecology and evolutionary biology as well as the difficulties they face. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variability analysis of the reconstructed daily global solar radiation under all-sky and cloud-free conditions in Madrid during the period 1887-1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Román, R.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Calbó, J.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-07-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the daily global solar radiation (GSR) reconstructed from sunshine duration measurements at Madrid (Spain) from 1887 to 1950. Additionally, cloud cover information recorded simultaneously by human observations for the study period was also analyzed and used to select cloud-free days. First, the day-to-day variability of reconstructed GSR data was evaluated, finding a strong relationship between GSR and cloudiness. The second step was to analyze the long-term evolution of the GSR data which exhibited two clear trends with opposite sign: a marked negative trend of - 36 kJ/m2 per year for 1887-1915 period and a moderate positive trend of + 13 kJ/m2 per year for 1916-1950 period, both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Therefore, there is evidence of "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods in the reconstructed GSR data for all-sky conditions in Madrid from the late 19th to the mid-20th centuries. Unlike the long-term evolution of GSR data, cloud cover showed non-statistically significant trends for the two analyzed sub-periods, 1887-1915 and 1916-1950. Finally, GSR trends were analyzed exclusively under cloud-free conditions in summer by means of the determination of the clearness index for those days with all cloud cover observations equal to zero oktas. The long-term evolution of the clearness index was in accordance with the "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods, showing smaller trends but still statistically significant. This result points out that aerosol load variability could have had a non-negligible influence on the long-term evolution of GSR even as far as from the late 19th century.

Evolution of neurocognitive function in long-term survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with chemotherapy only.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Cheung, Yin Ting; Conklin, Heather M; Jacola, Lisa M; Srivastava, DeoKumar; Nolan, Vikki G; Zhang, Hongmei; Gurney, James G; Huang, I-Chan; Robison, Leslie L; Pui, Ching-Hon; Hudson, Melissa M; Krull, Kevin R

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the evolution of neurocognitive problems from therapy completion to long-term follow-up in survivors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia treated with chemotherapy only. We evaluated whether attention problems observed at therapy completion evolve into long-term executive dysfunction in 158 survivors treated on a single institution protocol. Treatment data (high-dose intravenous methotrexate exposure [serum concentration] and triple intrathecal chemotherapy injections) were collected. Parent report of behavior and direct cognitive testing of survivors was conducted at end of therapy, and survivors completed neurocognitive testing when > 5 years post-diagnosis. At the end of chemotherapy, survivors (52% female; mean age 9.2 years) demonstrated higher frequency of impairment in sustained attention (38%) and parent-reported inattention (20%) compared to population expectations (10%). At long-term follow-up, survivors (mean age 13.7 years; 7.6 years post-diagnosis) demonstrated higher impairment in executive function (flexibility 24%, fluency 21%), sustained attention (15%), and processing speed (15%). Sustained attention improved from end of therapy to long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Higher methotrexate AUC and greater number of intrathecal injections were associated with attention problems (p = 0.009, p = 0.002, respectively) at the end of chemotherapy and executive function (p < 0.001, p = 0.02, respectively) problems at long-term follow-up. Attention problems at the end of therapy were not associated with executive function problems at long-term follow-up (p's > 0.05). The direct effect of chemotherapy exposure predicted outcomes at both time points. Survivors should be monitored for neurocognitive problems well into long-term survivorship, regardless of whether they show attention problems at the end of therapy. Treatment exposures are the best predictor of long-term complications.

A Case of Successful Teaching Policy: Connecticut's Long-Term Efforts To Improve Teaching and Learning. A Research Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilson, Suzanne M.; Darling-Hammond, Linda; Berry, Barnett

In this monograph, the authors describe Connecticut's long-term efforts to implement a comprehensive set of teaching quality policies to support improved student learning. The authors begin by describing the 15-year evolution of policies designed to recruit, prepare, and support teachers, while also creating greater accountability for the…

Modeling the Long-term Planform Evolution of Meandering Rivers in Confined Alluvial Valleys: Etsch-Adige River, NE Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zen, S.; Bogoni, M.; Zolezzi, G.; Lanzoni, S.; Scorpio, V.

2016-12-01

We combine the use of a morphodynamic model for river meander planform evolution with a geological dataset to investigate the influence of external confinements on the long-term evolution of a meandering river flowing in an Alpine valley. The analysis focuses on a 100 km reach of the Adige River, NE Italy, which had several sinuous/meandering sections before being extensively channelized in the 1800s. Geological surveys and historical maps revealed that many sections of the study reach impinge on the borders of the valley during its evolution. Moreover, a marked spatial heterogeneity in floodplain vertical accretion rates likely reflects preferential positions of the river channel in the floodplain. Valley confinements are represented by bedrock outcrops and by alluvial fans created by lateral tributaries, and were extracted from the geological and historical maps to build the computational domain for the meander morphodynamic model. The model predicts the long-term planform evolution of a meandering river based on a linear solution of the 2D De St Venant-Exner differential system and can manage changes in floodplain erodibility. Model applications allow to isolate the effects of valley bedrock and of alluvial fans in constraining the lateral channel migration. Modeled river channel persistence maps are compared with the available geological information. The present work allows further insights into the role of external confinements to river meander belts, which have been conducted so far mostly assuming the channel to evolve in unconfined floodplains. Future research shall incorporate model components for floodplain vertical accretion rates and for the advancement of alluvial fans occurring at the same time scale considered for meander evolution.

Long term evolution of planetary systems with a terrestrial planet and a giant planet.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgakarakos, Nikolaos; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Way, Michael J.

2017-06-01

We study the long term orbital evolution of a terrestrial planet under the gravitational perturbations of a giant planet. In particular, we are interested in situations where the two planets are in the same plane and are relatively close. We examine both possible configurations: the giant planet orbit being either outside or inside the orbit of the smaller planet. The perturbing potential is expanded to high orders and an analytical solution of the terrestrial planetary orbit is derived. The analytical estimates are then compared against results from the numerical integration of the full equations of motion and we find that the analytical solution works reasonably well. An interesting finding is that the new analytical estimates improve greatly the predictions for the timescales of the orbital evolution of the terrestrial planet compared to an octupole order expansion.

Rapid evolution mitigates the ecological consequences of an invasive species (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Wisconsin.

PubMed

Gillis, Michael K; Walsh, Matthew R

2017-07-12

Invasive species have extensive negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem health. Novel species also drive contemporary evolution in many native populations, which could mitigate or amplify their impacts on ecosystems. The predatory zooplankton Bythotrephes longimanus invaded lakes in Wisconsin, USA, in 2009. This invasion caused precipitous declines in zooplankton prey ( Daphnia pulicaria ), with cascading impacts on ecosystem services (water clarity). Here, we tested the link between Bythotrephes invasion, evolution in Daphnia and post-invasion ecological dynamics using 15 years of long-term data in conjunction with comparative experiments. Invasion by Bythotrephes is associated with rapid increases in the body size of Daphnia Laboratory experiments revealed that such shifts have a genetic component; third-generation laboratory-reared Daphnia from 'invaded' lakes are significantly larger and exhibit greater reproductive effort than individuals from 'uninvaded' lakes. This trajectory of evolution should accelerate Daphnia population growth and enhance population persistence. We tested this prediction by comparing analyses of long-term data with laboratory-based simulations, and show that rapid evolution in Daphnia is associated with increased population growth in invaded lakes. © 2017 The Authors.

Prereduction of Metal Oxides via Carbon Plasma Treatment for Efficient and Stable Electrocatalytic Hydrogen Evolution.

PubMed

Zhang, Yongqi; Ouyang, Bo; Xu, Kun; Xia, Xinhui; Zhang, Zheng; Rawat, Rajdeep Singh; Fan, Hong Jin

2018-04-01

Prereduction of transition metal oxides is a feasible and efficient strategy to enhance their catalytic activity for hydrogen evolution. Unfortunately, the prereduction via the common H 2 annealing method is unstable for nanomaterials during the hydrogen evolution process. Here, using NiMoO 4 nanowire arrays as the example, it is demonstrated that carbon plasma (C-plasma) treatment can greatly enhance both the catalytic activity and the long-term stability of transition metal oxides for hydrogen evolution. The C-plasma treatment has two functions at the same time: it induces partial surface reduction of the NiMoO 4 nanowire to form Ni 4 Mo nanoclusters, and simultaneously deposits a thin graphitic carbon shell. As a result, the C-plasma treated NiMoO 4 can maintain its array morphology, chemical composition, and catalytic activity during long-term intermittent hydrogen evolution process. This work may pave a new way for simultaneous activation and stabilization of transition metal oxide-based electrocatalysts. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Outbursts and Gradualism: Megaflood erosion consistent with long-term landscape evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel; O'Connor, Jim

2017-04-01

Existing models for the development of topography and relief over geological timescales are fundamentally based on semi-empirical laws of the erosion and sediment transport performed by rivers. The prediction power of these laws is hindered by limitations in measuring river incision and by the scant knowledge of the past hydrological conditions, specifically average water flow and its variability. Consequently, models adopt 'gradualistic' (time-averaged) assumptions and the erodability values derived from modelling long-term erosion rates in rivers remain ambiguously tied not only to the lithology and nature of the bedrock but also to uncertainties in the quantification of past climate. This prevents the use of those erodabilities to predict the landscape evolution in different scenarios. Here, we apply the fundamentals of river erosion models to outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes, for which the hydrograph is intrinsically known from the geomorphological record or from direct measures. We obtain the outlet erodability from the peak water discharge and lake area observed in 86 floods that span over 16 orders of magnitude in water volume. The obtained erodability-lithology correlation is consistent with that seen in 22 previous long-term river incision quantifications, showing that outburst floods can be used to estimate erodability values that remain valid for a wide range of hydrological regimes and for erosion timescales spanning from hours-long outburst floods to million-year-scale landscape evolution. The results constrain the conditions leading to the runaway erosion responsible for outburst floods triggered by overtopping lakes. They also call for the explicit incorporation of climate episodicity to the landscape evolution models. [Funded by CGL2014-59516].

Evolution of Akaganeite in Rust Layers Formed on Steel Submitted to Wet/Dry Cyclic Tests

PubMed Central

Ye, Wei; Song, Xiaoping; Ma, Yuantai; Li, Ying

2017-01-01

The evolution of akaganeite in rust layers strongly impacts the atmospheric corrosion behavior of steel during long-term exposure; however, the factors affecting the evolution of akaganeite and its mechanism of formation are vague. In this work, wet-dry cyclic corrosion tests were conducted to simulate long-term exposure. Quantitative X-ray diffraction analysis was employed to analyze variations in the relative amounts of akaganeite; scanning electron microscopy and electron probe microanalysis were used to study the migration of relevant elements in the rust layer, which could help elucidate the mechanism of akaganeite evolution. The results indicate that the fraction of akaganeite tends to decrease as the corrosion process proceeded, which is a result of the decrease in the amount of soluble chloride available and the ability of the thick rust layer to block the migration of relevant ions. This work also explores the location of akaganeite formation within the rust layer. PMID:29099061

The Place of Assisted Living in Long-Term Care and Related Service Systems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Robyn I.; Reinhard, Susan C.

2007-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to describe how assisted living (AL) fits with other long-term-care services. Design and Methods: We analyzed the evolution of AL, including the populations served, the services offered, and federal and state policies that create various incentives or disincentives for using AL to replace other forms of care…

Evolution with Reinforcement Learning in Negotiation

PubMed Central

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm. PMID:25048108

Evolution with reinforcement learning in negotiation.

PubMed

Zou, Yi; Zhan, Wenjie; Shao, Yuan

2014-01-01

Adaptive behavior depends less on the details of the negotiation process and makes more robust predictions in the long term as compared to in the short term. However, the extant literature on population dynamics for behavior adjustment has only examined the current situation. To offset this limitation, we propose a synergy of evolutionary algorithm and reinforcement learning to investigate long-term collective performance and strategy evolution. The model adopts reinforcement learning with a tradeoff between historical and current information to make decisions when the strategies of agents evolve through repeated interactions. The results demonstrate that the strategies in populations converge to stable states, and the agents gradually form steady negotiation habits. Agents that adopt reinforcement learning perform better in payoff, fairness, and stableness than their counterparts using classic evolutionary algorithm.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Liange; Rutqvist, Jonny; Kim, Kunhwi

The focus of research within the UFD Campaign is on repository-induced interactions that may affect the key safety characteristics of an argillaceous rock. These include thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical (THMC) process interactions that occur as a result of repository construction and waste emplacement. Some of the key questions addressed in this report include the development of fracturing in the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) and THMC effects on the near-field argillaceous rock and buffer minerals and petrophysical characteristics, particularly the impacts of induced temperature rise caused by waste heat.

The Funding of Long-Term Care in Canada: What Do We Know, What Should We Know?

PubMed

Grignon, Michel; Spencer, Byron G

2018-06-01

ABSTRACTLong-term care is a growing component of health care spending but how much is spent or who bears the cost is uncertain, and the measures vary depending on the source used. We drew on regularly published series and ad hoc publications to compile preferred estimates of the share of long-term care spending in total health care spending, the private share of long-term care spending, and the share of residential care within long-term care. For each series, we compared estimates obtainable from published sources (CIHI [Canadian Institute for Health Information] and OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development]) with our preferred estimates. We conclude that using published series without adjustment would lead to spurious conclusions on the level and evolution of spending on long-term care in Canada as well as on the distribution of costs between private and public funders and between residential and home care.

Dynamical Stability and Long-term Evolution of Rotating Stellar Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varri, Anna L.; Vesperini, E.; McMillan, S. L. W.; Bertin, G.

2011-05-01

We present the first results of an extensive survey of N-body simulations designed to investigate the dynamical stability and the long-term evolution of two new families of self-consistent stellar dynamical models, characterized by the presence of internal rotation. The first family extends the well-known King models to the case of axisymmetric systems flattened by solid-body rotation while the second family is characterized by differential rotation. The equilibrium configurations thus obtained can be described in terms of two dimensionless parameters, which measure the concentration and the amount of rotation, respectively. Slowly rotating configurations are found to be dynamically stable and we followed their long-term evolution, in order to evaluate the interplay between collisional relaxation and angular momentum transport. We also studied the stability of rapidly rotating models, which are characterized by the presence of a toroidal core embedded in an otherwise quasi-spherical configuration. In both cases, a description in terms of the radial and global properties, such as the ratio between the ordered kinetic energy and the gravitational energy of the system, is provided. Because the role of angular momentum in the process of cluster formation is only partly understood, we also undertook a preliminary investigation of the violent relaxation of simple systems initially characterized by approximate solid-body rotation. The properties of the final equilibrium configurations thus obtained are compared with those of the above-described family of differentially rotating models.

Quantitative Relationships Between Net Volume Change and Fabric Properties During Soil Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chadwick, O. A.; Nettleton, W. D.

1993-01-01

The state of soil evolution can be charted by net long-term volume and elemental mass changes for individual horizons compared with parent material. Volume collapse or dilation depends on relative elemental mass fluxes associated with losses form or additions to soil horizons.

Early Precambrian Carbonate and Evapolite Sediments: Constraints on Environmental and Biological Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Grotzinger, John P.

2002-01-01

The work accomplished under NASA Grant NAG5-6722 was very successful. Our lab was able to document the occurrence and distribution of evaporite-to-carbonate transitions in several basins during Precambrian time, to help constrain the long-term chemical evolution of seawater.

Experimental research on time-resolved evolution of cathode plasma expansion velocity in a long pulsed magnetically insulated coaxial diode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Danni; Zhang, Jun; Zhong, Huihuang; Ge, Xingjun; Gao, Jingming

2018-02-01

Unlike planar diodes, separate research of the axial and radial plasma expansion velocities is difficult for magnetically insulated coaxial diodes. Time-resolved electrical diagnostic which is based on the voltage-ampere characteristics has been employed to study the temporal evolution of the axial and radial cathode plasma expansion velocities in a long pulsed magnetically insulated coaxial diode. Different from a planar diode with a "U" shaped profile of temporal velocity evolution, the temporal evolution trend of the axial expansion velocity is proved to be a "V" shaped profile. Apart from the suppression on the radial expansion velocity, the strong magnetic field is also conducive to slowing down the axial expansion velocity. Compared with the ordinary graphite cathode, the carbon velvet and graphite composite cathode showed superior characteristics as judged by the low plasma expansion velocity and long-term electrical stability as a promising result for applications where long-pulsed and reliable operation at high power is required.

The role of biotic forces in driving macroevolution: beyond the Red Queen

PubMed Central

Voje, Kjetil L.; Holen, Øistein H.; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

A multitude of hypotheses claim that abiotic factors are the main drivers of macroevolutionary change. By contrast, Van Valen's Red Queen hypothesis is often put forward as the sole representative of the view that biotic forcing is the main evolutionary driver. This imbalance of hypotheses does not reflect our current knowledge: theoretical work demonstrates the plausibility of biotically driven long-term evolution, whereas empirical work suggests a central role for biotic forcing in macroevolution. We call for a more pluralistic view of how biotic forces may drive long-term evolution that is compatible with both phenotypic stasis in the fossil record and with non-constant extinction rates. Promising avenues of research include contrasting predictions from relevant theories within ecology and macroevolution, as well as embracing both abiotic and biotic proxies while modelling long-term evolutionary data. By fitting models describing hypotheses of biotically driven macroevolution to data, we could dissect their predictions and transcend beyond pattern description, possibly narrowing the divide between our current understanding of micro- and macroevolution. PMID:25948685

'Junk' DNA and long-term phenotypic evolution in Silene section Elisanthe (Caryophyllaceae).

PubMed Central

Meagher, Thomas R; Costich, Denise E

2004-01-01

Nuclear DNA content variation over orders of magnitude across species has been attributed to 'junk' repetitive DNA with limited adaptive significance. By contrast, our previous work on Silene latifolia showed that DNA content is negatively correlated with flower size, a character of clear adaptive relevance. The present paper explores this relationship in a broader phylogenetic context to investigate the long-term evolutionary impacts of DNA content variation. The relationship between nuclear DNA content and phenotype variation was determined for four closely related species of Silene section Elisanthe (Caryophyllaceae). In addition to a consistent sexual dimorphism in DNA content across all of the species, we found DNA content variation among populations within, as well as among, species. We also found a general trend towards a negative correlation between DNA content and flower and leaf size over all four species, within males and females as well as overall. These results indicate that repetitive DNA may play a role in long-term phenotypic evolution. PMID:15801614

Influence of long-term thermal aging on the microstructural evolution of nuclear reactor pressure vessel materials: An atom probe study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pareige, P.; Russell, K.F.; Stoller, R.E.

1998-03-01

Atom probe field ion microscopy (APFIM) investigations of the microstructure of unaged (as-fabricated) and long-term thermally aged ({approximately} 100,000 h at 280 C) surveillance materials from commercial reactor pressure vessel steels were performed. This combination of materials and conditions permitted the investigation of potential thermal-aging effects. This microstructural study focused on the quantification of the compositions of the matrix and carbides. The APFIM results indicate that there was no significant microstructural evolution after a long-term thermal exposure in weld, plate, or forging materials. The matrix depletion of copper that was observed in weld materials was consistent with the copper concentrationmore » in the matrix after the stress-relief heat treatment. The compositions of cementite carbides aged for 100,000 h were compared with the Thermocalc{trademark} prediction. The APFIM comparisons of materials under these conditions are consistent with the measured change in mechanical properties such as the Charpy transition temperature.« less

Long Term Evolution of Planetary Systems with a Terrestrial Planet and a Giant Planet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Georgakarakos, Nikolaos; Dobbs-Dixon, Ian; Way, Michael J.

2016-01-01

We study the long term orbital evolution of a terrestrial planet under the gravitational perturbations of a giant planet. In particular, we are interested in situations where the two planets are in the same plane and are relatively close. We examine both possible configurations: the giant planet orbit being either outside or inside the orbit of the smaller planet. The perturbing potential is expanded to high orders and an analytical solution of the terrestrial planetary orbit is derived. The analytical estimates are then compared against results from the numerical integration of the full equations of motion and we find that the analytical solution works reasonably well. An interesting finding is that the new analytical estimates improve greatly the predictions for the timescales of the orbital evolution of the terrestrial planet compared to an octupole order expansion. Finally, we briefly discuss possible applications of the analytical estimates in astrophysical problems.

Expansion and retrenchment of the Swedish welfare state: a long-term approach.

PubMed

Buendía, Luis

2015-01-01

In this article, we will undertake a long-term analysis of the evolution of the Swedish welfare state, seeking to explain that evolution through the use of a systemic approach. That is, our approach will consider the interrelations between economic growth (EG), the sociopolitical institutional framework (IF), and the welfare state (WS)-understood as a set of institutions embracing the labor market and its regulation, the tax system, and the so-called social wage-in order to find the main variables that elucidate its evolution. We will show that the expansive phase of the Swedish welfare state can be explained by the symbiotic relationships developed in the WS-EG-IF interaction, whereas the period of welfare state retrenchment is one result of changes operating within the sociopolitical IF and EG bases. © The Author(s) 2015 Reprints and permissions:]br]sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

A Model of Substitution Trajectories in Sequence Space and Long-Term Protein Evolution

PubMed Central

Usmanova, Dinara R.; Ferretti, Luca; Povolotskaya, Inna S.; Vlasov, Peter K.; Kondrashov, Fyodor A.

2015-01-01

The nature of factors governing the tempo and mode of protein evolution is a fundamental issue in evolutionary biology. Specifically, whether or not interactions between different sites, or epistasis, are important in directing the course of evolution became one of the central questions. Several recent reports have scrutinized patterns of long-term protein evolution claiming them to be compatible only with an epistatic fitness landscape. However, these claims have not yet been substantiated with a formal model of protein evolution. Here, we formulate a simple covarion-like model of protein evolution focusing on the rate at which the fitness impact of amino acids at a site changes with time. We then apply the model to the data on convergent and divergent protein evolution to test whether or not the incorporation of epistatic interactions is necessary to explain the data. We find that convergent evolution cannot be explained without the incorporation of epistasis and the rate at which an amino acid state switches from being acceptable at a site to being deleterious is faster than the rate of amino acid substitution. Specifically, for proteins that have persisted in modern prokaryotic organisms since the last universal common ancestor for one amino acid substitution approximately ten amino acid states switch from being accessible to being deleterious, or vice versa. Thus, molecular evolution can only be perceived in the context of rapid turnover of which amino acids are available for evolution. PMID:25415964

Post-rift magmatic evolution of the eastern North American “passive-aggressive” margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mazza, Sarah E.; Gazel, Esteban; Johnson, Elizabeth A.; Bizmis, Michael; McAleer, Ryan J.; Biryol, C. Berk

2017-01-01

Understanding the evolution of passive margins requires knowledge of temporal and chemical constraints on magmatism following the transition from supercontinent to rifting, to post-rifting evolution. The Eastern North American Margin (ENAM) is an ideal study location as several magmatic pulses occurred in the 200 My following rifting. In particular, the Virginia-West Virginia region of the ENAM has experienced two postrift magmatic pulses at ∼152 Ma and 47 Ma, and thus provides a unique opportunity to study the long-term magmatic evolution of passive margins. Here we present a comprehensive set of geochemical data that includes new 40Ar/39Ar ages, major and trace-element compositions, and analysis of radiogenic isotopes to further constrain their magmatic history. The Late Jurassic volcanics are bimodal, from basanites to phonolites, while the Eocene volcanics range from picrobasalt to rhyolite. Modeling suggests that the felsic volcanics from both the Late Jurassic and Eocene events are consistent with fractional crystallization. Sr-Nd-Pb systematics for the Late Jurassic event suggests HIMU and EMII components in the magma source that we interpret as upper mantle components rather than crustal interaction. Lithospheric delamination is the best hypothesis for magmatism in Virginia/West Virginia, due to tectonic instabilities that are remnant from the long-term evolution of this margin, resulting in a “passive-aggressive” margin that records multiple magmatic events long after rifting ended.

On the Evolution of Human Language.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lieberman, Philip

Human linguistic ability depends, in part, on the gradual evolution of man's supralaryngeal vocal tract. The anatomic basis of human speech production is the result of a long evolutionary process in which the Darwinian process of natural selection acted to retain mutations. For auditory perception, the listener operates in terms of the acoustic…

Report on International Collaboration Involving the FE Heater and HG-A Tests at Mont Terri

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Houseworth, Jim; Rutqvist, Jonny; Asahina, Daisuke

Nuclear waste programs outside of the US have focused on different host rock types for geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Several countries, including France, Switzerland, Belgium, and Japan are exploring the possibility of waste disposal in shale and other clay-rich rock that fall within the general classification of argillaceous rock. This rock type is also of interest for the US program because the US has extensive sedimentary basins containing large deposits of argillaceous rock. LBNL, as part of the DOE-NE Used Fuel Disposition Campaign, is collaborating on some of the underground research laboratory (URL) activities at the Mont Terrimore » URL near Saint-Ursanne, Switzerland. The Mont Terri project, which began in 1995, has developed a URL at a depth of about 300 m in a stiff clay formation called the Opalinus Clay. Our current collaboration efforts include two test modeling activities for the FE heater test and the HG-A leak-off test. This report documents results concerning our current modeling of these field tests. The overall objectives of these activities include an improved understanding of and advanced relevant modeling capabilities for EDZ evolution in clay repositories and the associated coupled processes, and to develop a technical basis for the maximum allowable temperature for a clay repository.« less

Adapting Digital Libraries to Continual Evolution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barkstrom, Bruce R.; Finch, Melinda; Ferebee, Michelle; Mackey, Calvin

2002-01-01

In this paper, we describe five investment streams (data storage infrastructure, knowledge management, data production control, data transport and security, and personnel skill mix) that need to be balanced against short-term operating demands in order to maximize the probability of long-term viability of a digital library. Because of the rapid pace of information technology change, a digital library cannot be a static institution. Rather, it has to become a flexible organization adapted to continuous evolution of its infrastructure.

Utilization of PD modalities: evolution.

PubMed

Venkataraman, Vijaya; Nolph, Karl D

2002-01-01

In the early 1960s, peritoneal dialysis (PD) was introduced as a form of long-term maintenance therapy in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We have come a long way since. Increasing understanding of peritoneal kinetic behavior, its innovative manipulation to meet patient needs, critical monitoring of clinical outcomes, and parallel development in technology have all contributed to the worldwide success of the therapy over the past four decades. In this article we review the evolution of the various PD modalities in the context of these factors.

Hidden long evolutionary memory in a model biochemical network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ali, Md. Zulfikar; Wingreen, Ned S.; Mukhopadhyay, Ranjan

2018-04-01

We introduce a minimal model for the evolution of functional protein-interaction networks using a sequence-based mutational algorithm, and apply the model to study neutral drift in networks that yield oscillatory dynamics. Starting with a functional core module, random evolutionary drift increases network complexity even in the absence of specific selective pressures. Surprisingly, we uncover a hidden order in sequence space that gives rise to long-term evolutionary memory, implying strong constraints on network evolution due to the topology of accessible sequence space.

Role of Utility and Inference in the Evolution of Functional Information

PubMed Central

Sharov, Alexei A.

2009-01-01

Functional information means an encoded network of functions in living organisms from molecular signaling pathways to an organism’s behavior. It is represented by two components: code and an interpretation system, which together form a self-sustaining semantic closure. Semantic closure allows some freedom between components because small variations of the code are still interpretable. The interpretation system consists of inference rules that control the correspondence between the code and the function (phenotype) and determines the shape of the fitness landscape. The utility factor operates at multiple time scales: short-term selection drives evolution towards higher survival and reproduction rate within a given fitness landscape, and long-term selection favors those fitness landscapes that support adaptability and lead to evolutionary expansion of certain lineages. Inference rules make short-term selection possible by shaping the fitness landscape and defining possible directions of evolution, but they are under control of the long-term selection of lineages. Communication normally occurs within a set of agents with compatible interpretation systems, which I call communication system. Functional information cannot be directly transferred between communication systems with incompatible inference rules. Each biological species is a genetic communication system that carries unique functional information together with inference rules that determine evolutionary directions and constraints. This view of the relation between utility and inference can resolve the conflict between realism/positivism and pragmatism. Realism overemphasizes the role of inference in evolution of human knowledge because it assumes that logic is embedded in reality. Pragmatism substitutes usefulness for truth and therefore ignores the advantage of inference. The proposed concept of evolutionary pragmatism rejects the idea that logic is embedded in reality; instead, inference rules are constructed within each communication system to represent reality and they evolve towards higher adaptability on a long time scale. PMID:20160960

Fire feedbacks over geological time and the evolution of atmospheric oxygen concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, B.; Belcher, C.; Lenton, T. M.

2017-12-01

During the 4.5 billion year history of the Earth, the concentration of oxygen in the atmosphere has risen from trace levels to today's 21%. Yet over the last 400 million years, O2 concentration appears to have remained within a relatively narrow range (around 15% - 30%), despite dramatic changes in the nature of global biogeochemical cycling. This stability has been crucial for continued animal evolution, and is thought to have arisen through feedbacks between oxygen, wildfire and plant productivity: the strong oxygen- dependence of fire initiation and spread means that global photosynthetic primary productivity is suppressed when oxygen levels are high, and enhanced when levels are low. We present biogeochemical modelling of the long term carbon and oxygen cycles, which aims to capture the operation of the wildfire feedback alongside other key processes. We find that wildfire can effectively stabilize long term oxygen concentrations, but that the nature of this feedback has changed as plant evolution has provided different fuels. Specifically, the evolution of early angiosperms during the Cretaceous period provided new understory fuels that more easily facilitated crown and canopy fires. Adding these dynamics to our model produces a more stable system over long timescales, and the model predicts that oxygen concentration has declined towards the present day - a prediction that is supported by other independent estimates.

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Wang, Guojie; Huang, Jin; Mu, Mengyuan; Yan, Guixia; Liu, Chunwei; Gao, Chujie; Li, Xing; Yin, Yixing; Zhang, Fangmin; Zhu, Siguang; Hua, Wenjian

2017-11-01

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.

Toward a theory of multilevel evolution: long-term information integration shapes the mutational landscape and enhances evolvability.

PubMed

Hogeweg, Paulien

2012-01-01

Most of evolutionary theory has abstracted away from how information is coded in the genome and how this information is transformed into traits on which selection takes place. While in the earliest stages of biological evolution, in the RNA world, the mapping from the genotype into function was largely predefined by the physical-chemical properties of the evolving entities (RNA replicators, e.g. from sequence to folded structure and catalytic sites), in present-day organisms, the mapping itself is the result of evolution. I will review results of several in silico evolutionary studies which examine the consequences of evolving the genetic coding, and the ways this information is transformed, while adapting to prevailing environments. Such multilevel evolution leads to long-term information integration. Through genome, network, and dynamical structuring, the occurrence and/or effect of random mutations becomes nonrandom, and facilitates rapid adaptation. This is what does happen in the in silico experiments. Is it also what did happen in biological evolution? I will discuss some data that suggest that it did. In any case, these results provide us with novel search images to tackle the wealth of biological data.

Long-term changes in regular and low-frequency earthquake inter-event times near Parkfield, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Shelly, D. R.; Johnson, P. A.; Gomberg, J. S.; Peng, Z.

2012-12-01

The temporal evolution of earthquake inter-event time may provide important clues for the timing of future events and underlying physical mechanisms of earthquake nucleation. In this study, we examine inter-event times from 12-yr catalogs of ~50,000 earthquakes and ~730,000 LFEs in the vicinity of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas Fault. We focus on the long-term evolution of inter-event times after the 2003 Mw6.5 San Simeon and 2004 Mw6.0 Parkfield earthquakes. We find that inter-event times decrease by ~4 orders of magnitudes after the Parkfield and San Simeon earthquakes and are followed by a long-term recovery with time scales of ~3 years and more than 8 years for earthquakes along and to the southwest of the San Andreas fault, respectively. The differing long-term recovery of the earthquake inter-event times is likely a manifestation of different aftershock recovery time scales that reflect the different tectonic loading rates in the two regions. We also observe a possible decrease of LFE inter-event times in some LFE families, followed by a recovery with time scales of ~4 months to several years. The drop in the recurrence time of LFE after the Parkfield earthquake is likely caused by a combination of the dynamic and positive static stress induced by the Parkfield earthquake, and the long-term recovery in LFE recurrence time could be due to post-seismic relaxation or gradual recovery of the fault zone material properties. Our on-going work includes better constraining and understanding the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed long-term recovery in earthquake and LFE inter-event times.

Whole planet coupling between climate, mantle, and core: Implications for rocky planet evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foley, Bradford J.; Driscoll, Peter E.

2016-05-01

Earth's climate, mantle, and core interact over geologic time scales. Climate influences whether plate tectonics can take place on a planet, with cool climates being favorable for plate tectonics because they enhance stresses in the lithosphere, suppress plate boundary annealing, and promote hydration and weakening of the lithosphere. Plate tectonics plays a vital role in the long-term carbon cycle, which helps to maintain a temperate climate. Plate tectonics provides long-term cooling of the core, which is vital for generating a magnetic field, and the magnetic field is capable of shielding atmospheric volatiles from the solar wind. Coupling between climate, mantle, and core can potentially explain the divergent evolution of Earth and Venus. As Venus lies too close to the sun for liquid water to exist, there is no long-term carbon cycle and thus an extremely hot climate. Therefore, plate tectonics cannot operate and a long-lived core dynamo cannot be sustained due to insufficient core cooling. On planets within the habitable zone where liquid water is possible, a wide range of evolutionary scenarios can take place depending on initial atmospheric composition, bulk volatile content, or the timing of when plate tectonics initiates, among other factors. Many of these evolutionary trajectories would render the planet uninhabitable. However, there is still significant uncertainty over the nature of the coupling between climate, mantle, and core. Future work is needed to constrain potential evolutionary scenarios and the likelihood of an Earth-like evolution.

TA [B] Predicting Microstructure-Creep Resistance Correlation in High Temperature Alloys over Multiple Time Scales

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomar, Vikas

2017-03-06

DoE-NETL partnered with Purdue University to predict the creep and associated microstructure evolution of tungsten-based refractory alloys. Researchers use grain boundary (GB) diagrams, a new concept, to establish time-dependent creep resistance and associated microstructure evolution of grain boundaries/intergranular films GB/IGF controlled creep as a function of load, environment, and temperature. The goal was to conduct a systematic study that includes the development of a theoretical framework, multiscale modeling, and experimental validation using W-based body-centered-cubic alloys, doped/alloyed with one or two of the following elements: nickel, palladium, cobalt, iron, and copper—typical refractory alloys. Prior work has already established and validated amore » basic theory for W-based binary and ternary alloys; the study conducted under this project extended this proven work. Based on interface diagrams phase field models were developed to predict long term microstructural evolution. In order to validate the models nanoindentation creep data was used to elucidate the role played by the interface properties in predicting long term creep strength and microstructure evolution.« less

Speculations on the origin and evolution of the Utopia-Elysium lowlands of Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frey, Herbert V.; Schultz, Richard A.

1990-01-01

This paper proposes a qualitative model for the origin of the Utopia-Elysium northern lowlands on eastern Mars in terms of the long-term evolution of two large overlapping impact basins. The model, which is consistent with both the observed geologic constraints and more quantitative results obtained by numerical modeling of smaller (Orientale-size) impact basins, is shown to qualitatively account for the major topographic variation seen in the Utopia-Elysium region, including the overall 'lowness' of the area and localized depressions.

Morphosedimentary evolution of carbonate sandy beaches at decadal scale : case study in Reunion Island , Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahabot, Marie-Myriam; Pennober, Gwenaelle; Suanez, Serge; Troadec, Roland; Delacourt, Christophe

2017-04-01

Global change introduce a lot of uncertainties concerning future trajectory of beaches by directly or indirectly modifying major driving factors. An improved understanding of the past shoreline evolution may help for anticipate future coastline response. However, in tropical environment, studies concerning carbonate beaches dynamics are scarce compared to open sandy beaches. Consequently, coral reef protected beaches morphological adjustment is still poorly understood and long-term evolution rate are poorly quantified in these specific environment. In this context, La Reunion Island, insular department of France located in Indian Ocean, constitute a favoured laboratory. This high volcanic island possesses 25 km of carbonate beaches which experience hydrodynamic forcing specific from tropical environment: cyclonic swell during summer and long period swell during winter. Because of degraded coral reef health and high anthropogenic pressure, 50% of the beaches are in erosion since 1970s. Beach survey has been conducted since 1990s by scientist and are now encompassed as pilot site within a French observatory network which guarantee long-term survey with high resolution observational techniques. Thus, La Reunion Island is one of the rare carbonate beach to be surveyed since 20 years. This study aims to examined and quantify beach response at decadal scale on carbonate sandy beaches of Reunion Island. The study focus on 12 km of beaches from Cap Champagne to the Passe de Trois-Bassins. The analyze of 15 beach profile data originated from historical and DGPS beach topographic data confirm long term trend to erosion. Sediment lost varies between 0.5 and 2 m3.yr-1 since 1998. However longshore current have led to accretion of some part of beach compartment with rate of 0.7 to 1.6 m3.yr-1. Wave climate was examined from in-situ measurement over 15 years and show that extreme waves associated with tropical cyclones and long period swell play a major role in beach dynamics. Swell frequency and intensity are both determinant for beach evolution.

Modeling mutual feedback between users and recommender systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, An; Yeung, Chi Ho; Medo, Matúš; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

2015-07-01

Recommender systems daily influence our decisions on the Internet. While considerable attention has been given to issues such as recommendation accuracy and user privacy, the long-term mutual feedback between a recommender system and the decisions of its users has been neglected so far. We propose here a model of network evolution which allows us to study the complex dynamics induced by this feedback, including the hysteresis effect which is typical for systems with non-linear dynamics. Despite the popular belief that recommendation helps users to discover new things, we find that the long-term use of recommendation can contribute to the rise of extremely popular items and thus ultimately narrow the user choice. These results are supported by measurements of the time evolution of item popularity inequality in real systems. We show that this adverse effect of recommendation can be tamed by sacrificing part of short-term recommendation accuracy.

Lessons Learned from the Evolution of an Academic Community Partnership: Creating "Patient Voices".

PubMed

Chambers, Meghan K; Ireland, Anna; D'Aniello, Rona; Lipnicki, Stephanie; Glick, Myron; Tumiel-Berhalter, Laurene

2015-01-01

Long-term partners received federal funding to develop the Patient Voices Network, a partnership of safety-net family practices and their patients to develop health improvement strategies. The scope and structure of the newly funded grant presented unexpected challenges that threatened the future of the partnership.Purpose of Article: To present a case study of the evolution of an existing partnership and offer lessons learned along with recommendations for future partnerships. Federal funding formalized the partnership in a way that required looking at it through a new lens. Leadership, programmatic, personnel, and financial challenges emerged. Short-term and long-term strategies were applied to address evolving needs. This case study demonstrates how federal funding raises the bar for academic-community partnerships and how challenges can be worked through, particularly if the partnership embraces the key principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR). Recommendations have been applied successfully to future initiatives.

The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Zhong, Weiqiong; Liu, Nairong

2017-09-01

To examine the stability of the international oil trade network and explore the influence of countries and trade relationships on the trade stability, we construct weighted and unweighted international oil trade networks based on complex network theory using oil trading data between countries from 1996 to 2014. We analyze the stability of international oil trade network (IOTN) from short-term and long-term aspects. From the short-term perspective, we find that the trade volumes play an important role on the stability. Moreover, the weighted IOTN is stable; however, the unweighted networks can better reflect the actual evolution of IOTN. From the long-term perspective, we identify trade relationships that are maintained during the whole sample period to reveal the situation of the whole international oil trade. We provide a way to quantitatively measure the stability of complex network from short-term and long-term perspectives, which can be applied to measure and analyze trade stability of other goods or services.

Spectral evolution of weakly nonlinear random waves: kinetic description vs direct numerical simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Annenkov, Sergei; Shrira, Victor

2016-04-01

We study numerically the long-term evolution of water wave spectra without wind forcing, using three different models, aiming at understanding the role of different sets of assumptions. The first model is the classical Hasselmann kinetic equation (KE). We employ the WRT code kindly provided by G. van Vledder. Two other models are new. As the second model, we use the generalised kinetic equation (gKE), derived without the assumption of quasi-stationarity. Thus, unlike the KE, the gKE is valid in the cases when a wave spectrum is changing rapidly (e.g. at the initial stage of evolution of a narrow spectrum). However, the gKE employs the same statistical closure as the KE. The third model is based on the Zakharov integrodifferential equation for water waves and does not depend on any statistical assumptions. Since the Zakharov equation plays the role of the primitive equation of the theory of wave turbulence, we refer to this model as direct numerical simulation of spectral evolution (DNS-ZE). For initial conditions, we choose two narrow-banded spectra with the same frequency distribution (a JONSWAP spectrum with high peakedness γ = 6) and different degrees of directionality. These spectra are from the set of observations collected in a directional wave tank by Onorato et al (2009). Spectrum A is very narrow in angle (corresponding to N = 840 in the cosN directional model). Spectrum B is initially wider in angle (corresponds to N = 24). Short-term evolution of both spectra (O(102) wave periods) has been studied numerically by Xiao et al (2013) using two other approaches (broad-band modified nonlinear Schrödinger equation and direct numerical simulation based on the high-order spectral method). We use these results to verify the initial stage of our DNS-ZE simulations. However, the advantage of the DNS-ZE method is that it allows to study long-term spectral evolution (up to O(104) periods), which was previously possible only with the KE. In the short-term evolution, we find a good agreement between our DNS-ZE results and simulations by Xiao et al (2013), both for the evolution of frequency spectra and for the directional spreading. In the long term, all three approaches demonstrate very close evolution of integral characteristics of spectra, approaching for large time the theoretical asymptotes of the self-similar stage of evolution. However, the detailed comparison of the spectral evolution shows certain notable differences. Both kinetic equations give virtually identical evolution of spectrum B, but in the case of initially nearly one-dimensional spectrum A the KE overestimates the amplitude of the spectral peak. Meanwhile, the DNS-ZE results show considerably wider spectra with less pronounced peak. There is a striking difference for the rate of spectral broadening, which is much larger for the gKE and especially for the KE, than for the DNS-ZE. We show that the rates of change of the spectra obtained with the DNS-ZE are proportional to the fourth power of nonlinearity, corresponding to the dynamical timescale of evolution, rather than the statistical timescale of both kinetic equations.

Is Earth coming out of the recent ice house age in the long-term? - constraints from probable mantle CO2-degassing reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, Jens; Li, Gaojun; West, A. Joshua

2017-04-01

Enhanced partial melting of mantle material probably started when the subduction motor started around 3.2 Ga ago as evidenced by the formation history of the continental crust. Carbon is degassing due partial melting as it is an incompatible element. Therefore, mantle carbon degassing rates would change with time proportionally to the reservoir mantle concentration evolution and the ocean crust production rate, causing a distinct CO2-degassing rate change with time. The evolution of the mantle degassing rate has some implications for the reconstruction of the carbon cycle and therefore climate and Earth surface processes rates, as CO2-degassing rates are used to constrain or to balance the atmosphere-ocean-crust carbon cycle system. It will be shown that compilations of CO2-degassing from relevant geological sources are probably exceeding the established CO2-sink terrestrial weathering, which is often used to constrain long-term mantle degassing rates to close the carbon cycle on geological time scales. In addition, the scenarios for the degassing dynamics from the mantle sources suggest that the mantle is depleting its carbon content since 3 Ga. This has further implications for the long-term CO2-sink weathering. Results will be compared with geochemical proxies for weathering and weathering intensity dynamics, and will be set in context with snow ball Earth events and long-term emplacement dynamics of mafic areas as Large Igneous Provinces. Decreasing mantle degassing rates since about 2 Ga suggest a constraint for the evolution of the carbon cycle and recycling potential of the amount of subducted carbon. If the given scenarios hold further investigation, the contribution of mantle degassing to climate forcing (directly and via recycling) will decrease further.

Senescence in the wild: Insights from a long-term study on Seychelles warblers.

PubMed

Hammers, Martijn; Kingma, Sjouke A; Bebbington, Kat; van de Crommenacker, Janske; Spurgin, Lewis G; Richardson, David S; Burke, Terry; Dugdale, Hannah L; Komdeur, Jan

2015-11-01

Senescence--the progressive age-dependent decline in performance--occurs in most organisms. There is considerable variation in the onset and rate of senescence between and within species. Yet the causes of this variation are still poorly understood, despite being central to understanding the evolution of senescence. Long-term longitudinal studies on wild animals are extremely well-suited to studying the impact of environmental and individual characteristics (and the interaction between the two) on senescence, and can help us to understand the mechanisms that shape the evolution of senescence. In this review, we summarize and discuss the insights gained from our comprehensive long-term individual-based study of the Seychelles warbler (Acrocephalus sechellensis). This species provides an excellent model system in which to investigate the evolution of senescence in the wild. We found that Seychelles warblers show senescent declines in survival and reproduction, and discuss how individual characteristics (body condition, body size) and environmental effects (low- versus high-quality environments) may affect the onset and rate of senescence. Further, we highlight the evidence for trade-offs between early-life investment and senescence. We describe how key cellular and physiological processes (oxidative stress and telomere shortening) underpinning senescence are affected by individual and environmental characteristics in the Seychelles warbler (e.g. food availability, reproductive investment, disease) and we discuss how such physiological variation may mediate the relationship between environmental characteristics and senescence. Based on our work using Seychelles warblers as a model system, we show how insights from long-term studies of wild animals may help unravel the causes of the remarkable variation in senescence observed in natural systems, and highlight areas for promising future research.

Sensitivity analysis of a variability in rock thermal conductivity concerning implications on the thermal evolution of the Brazilian South Atlantic passive continental margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stippich, Christian; Krob, Florian; Glasmacher, Ulrich Anton; Hackspacher, Peter Christian

2017-04-01

The aim of the research is to quantify the long-term evolution of the western South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in SE-Brazil. Excellent onshore outcrop conditions and extensive pre-rift to post-rift archives between São Paulo and Laguna allow a high precision quantification of exhumation, and rock uplift rates, influencing physical parameters, long-term acting forces, and process-response systems. The research integrates published (Karl et al., 2013) and partly published thermochronological data from Brazil, and test lately published new concepts on causes of long-term landscape and lithospheric evolution in southern Brazil. Six distinct lithospheric blocks (Laguna, Florianópolis, Curitiba, Ilha Comprida, Peruibe and Santos), which are separated by fracture zones (Karl et al., 2013) are characterized by individual thermochronological age spectra. Furthermore, the thermal evolution derived by numerical modeling indicates variable post-rift exhumation histories of these blocks. In this context, we will provide information on the causes for the complex exhumation history of the Florianópolis, and adjacent blocks. Following up on our latest publication (Braun et al., 2016) regarding the effect of variability in rock thermal conductivity on exhumation rate estimates we performed a sensitivity analysis to quantify the effect of a differentiated lithospheric crust on the thermal evolution of the Florianópolis block versus exhumation rates estimated from modelling a lithospheric uniform crustal block. The long-term landscape evolution models with process rates were computed with the software code PECUBE (Braun, 2003; Braun et al., 2012). Testing model solutions obtained for a multidimensional parameter space against the real thermochronological and geomorphological data set, the most likely combinations of parameters, values, and rates can be constrained. References Braun, J., 2003. Pecube: A new finite element code to solve the 3D heat transport equation including the effects of a time-varying, finite amplitude surface topography. Computers and Geosciences, v.29, pp.787-794. Braun, J., Stippich, C., Glasmacher, U. A., 2016. The effect of variability in rock thermal conductivity on exhumation rate estimates from thermochronological data. Tectonophysics, v.690, pp.288-297 Braun, J., van der Beek, P., Valla, P., Robert, X., Herman, F., Goltzbacj, C., Pedersen, V., Perry, C., Simon-Labric, T., Prigent, C., 2012. Quantifying rates of landscape evolution and tectonic processes by thermochronology and numerical modeling of crustal heat transport using PECUBE. Tectonophysics, v.524-525, pp.1-28. Karl, M., Glasmacher, U.A., Kollenz, S., Franco-Magalhaes, A.O.B., Stockli, D.F., Hackspacher, P., 2013. Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data. Tectonophysics, Volume 604, Pages 224-244.

Evolution of individual versus social learning on social networks

PubMed Central

Tamura, Kohei; Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ihara, Yasuo

2015-01-01

A number of studies have investigated the roles played by individual and social learning in cultural phenomena and the relative advantages of the two learning strategies in variable environments. Because social learning involves the acquisition of behaviours from others, its utility depends on the availability of ‘cultural models’ exhibiting adaptive behaviours. This indicates that social networks play an essential role in the evolution of learning. However, possible effects of social structure on the evolution of learning have not been fully explored. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore the evolutionary dynamics of learning strategies on social networks. We first derive the condition under which social learners (SLs) are selectively favoured over individual learners in a broad range of social network. We then obtain an analytical approximation of the long-term average frequency of SLs in homogeneous networks, from which we specify the condition, in terms of three relatedness measures, for social structure to facilitate the long-term evolution of social learning. Finally, we evaluate our approximation by Monte Carlo simulations in complete graphs, regular random graphs and scale-free networks. We formally show that whether social structure favours the evolution of social learning is determined by the relative magnitudes of two effects of social structure: localization in competition, by which competition between learning strategies is evaded, and localization in cultural transmission, which slows down the spread of adaptive traits. In addition, our estimates of the relatedness measures suggest that social structure disfavours the evolution of social learning when selection is weak. PMID:25631568

Evolution of individual versus social learning on social networks.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ihara, Yasuo

2015-03-06

A number of studies have investigated the roles played by individual and social learning in cultural phenomena and the relative advantages of the two learning strategies in variable environments. Because social learning involves the acquisition of behaviours from others, its utility depends on the availability of 'cultural models' exhibiting adaptive behaviours. This indicates that social networks play an essential role in the evolution of learning. However, possible effects of social structure on the evolution of learning have not been fully explored. Here, we develop a mathematical model to explore the evolutionary dynamics of learning strategies on social networks. We first derive the condition under which social learners (SLs) are selectively favoured over individual learners in a broad range of social network. We then obtain an analytical approximation of the long-term average frequency of SLs in homogeneous networks, from which we specify the condition, in terms of three relatedness measures, for social structure to facilitate the long-term evolution of social learning. Finally, we evaluate our approximation by Monte Carlo simulations in complete graphs, regular random graphs and scale-free networks. We formally show that whether social structure favours the evolution of social learning is determined by the relative magnitudes of two effects of social structure: localization in competition, by which competition between learning strategies is evaded, and localization in cultural transmission, which slows down the spread of adaptive traits. In addition, our estimates of the relatedness measures suggest that social structure disfavours the evolution of social learning when selection is weak. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the Rehabilitation of Persons with Long-Term Mental Illness. [Proceedings of the] Institute on Rehabilitation Issues (15th, Tampa, Florida, December 1988). Report from the Study Group.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cato, Carol; And Others

This report from a study group on long-term mental illness (LTMI) examines three components of the vocational rehabilitation process (the client, the counselor, and the programs) and the systems through which the three components interact. The first chapter discusses the history and evolution of the vocational rehabilitation (VR) and mental health…

Stability of Large Parallel Tunnels Excavated in Weak Rocks: A Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Xiuli; Weng, Yonghong; Zhang, Yuting; Xu, Tangjin; Wang, Tuanle; Rao, Zhiwen; Qi, Zufang

2017-09-01

Diversion tunnels are important structures for hydropower projects but are always placed in locations with less favorable geological conditions than those in which other structures are placed. Because diversion tunnels are usually large and closely spaced, the rock pillar between adjacent tunnels in weak rocks is affected on both sides, and conventional support measures may not be adequate to achieve the required stability. Thus, appropriate reinforcement support measures are needed, and the design philosophy regarding large parallel tunnels in weak rocks should be updated. This paper reports a recent case in which two large parallel diversion tunnels are excavated. The rock masses are thin- to ultra-thin-layered strata coated with phyllitic films, which significantly decrease the soundness and strength of the strata and weaken the rocks. The behaviors of the surrounding rock masses under original (and conventional) support measures are detailed in terms of rock mass deformation, anchor bolt stress, and the extent of the excavation disturbed zone (EDZ), as obtained from safety monitoring and field testing. In situ observed phenomena and their interpretation are also included. The sidewall deformations exhibit significant time-dependent characteristics, and large magnitudes are recorded. The stresses in the anchor bolts are small, but the extents of the EDZs are large. The stability condition under the original support measures is evaluated as poor. To enhance rock mass stability, attempts are made to reinforce support design and improve safety monitoring programs. The main feature of these attempts is the use of prestressed cables that run through the rock pillar between the parallel tunnels. The efficacy of reinforcement support measures is verified by further safety monitoring data and field test results. Numerical analysis is constantly performed during the construction process to provide a useful reference for decision making. The calculated deformations are in good agreement with the measured data, and the calculated forces of newly added cables show that the designed reinforcement is necessary and ensures sufficient stability. Finally, the role of safety monitoring in the evaluation of rock mass stability and the consideration of tunnel group effect are discussed. The work described in this paper aims to deepen the understanding of rock mass behaviors of large parallel tunnels in weak rocks and to improve the design philosophy.

Coastline evolution of Portuguese low-lying sandy coast in the last 50 years: an integrated approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponte Lira, Cristina; Nobre Silva, Ana; Taborda, Rui; Freire de Andrade, Cesar

2016-06-01

Regional/national-scale information on coastline rates of change and trends is extremely valuable, but these studies are scarce. A widely accepted standardized methodology for analysing long-term coastline change has been difficult to achieve, but it is essential to conduct an integrated and holistic approach to coastline evolution and hence support coastal management actions. Additionally, databases providing knowledge on coastline evolution are of key importance to support both coastal management experts and users.The main objective of this work is to present the first systematic, national-scale and consistent long-term coastline evolution data of Portuguese mainland low-lying sandy coasts.The methodology used quantifies coastline evolution using a unique and robust coastline indicator (the foredune toe), which is independent of short-term changes.The dataset presented comprises (1) two polyline sets, mapping the 1958 and 2010 sandy beach-dune system coastline, both optimized for working at 1 : 50 000 scale or smaller; (2) one polyline set representing long-term change rates between 1958 and 2010, each estimated at 250 m; and (3) a table with minimum, maximum and mean of evolution rates for sandy beach-dune system coastline. All science data produced here are openly accessible at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.859136 and can be used in other studies.Results show beach erosion as the dominant trend, with a mean change rate of -0.24 ± 0.01 m year-1 for all mainland Portuguese beach-dune systems. Although erosion is dominant, this evolution is variable in signal and magnitude in different coastal sediment cells and also within each cell. The most relevant beach erosion issues were found in the coastal stretches of Espinho-Torreira and Costa Nova-Praia de Mira, Cova da Gala-Leirosa, and Cova do Vapor-Costa da Caparica. The coastal segments Minho River-Nazaré and Costa da Caparica adjacent to the coast exhibit a history of major human interventions interfering with the coastal system, many of which originated and maintained a sediment deficit. In contrast, the coastal segments Troia-Sines and Sines-Cape S. Vicente have experienced less intervention and show stable or moderate accretion behaviour.

Enhancing long-term photostability of BiVO4 photoanodes for solar water splitting by tuning electrolyte composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Dong Ki; Choi, Kyoung-Shin

2018-01-01

As the performance of photoelectrodes used for solar water splitting continues to improve, enhancing the long-term stability of the photoelectrodes becomes an increasingly crucial issue. In this study, we report that tuning the composition of the electrolyte can be used as a strategy to suppress photocorrosion during solar water splitting. Anodic photocorrosion of BiVO4 photoanodes involves the loss of V5+ from the BiVO4 lattice by dissolution. We demonstrate that the use of a V5+-saturated electrolyte, which inhibits the photooxidation-coupled dissolution of BiVO4, can serve as a simple yet effective method to suppress anodic photocorrosion of BiVO4. The V5+ species in the solution can also incorporate into the FeOOH/NiOOH oxygen-evolution catalyst layer present on the BiVO4 surface during water oxidation, further enhancing water-oxidation kinetics. The effect of the V5+ species in the electrolyte on both the long-term photostability of BiVO4 and the performance of the FeOOH/NiOOH oxygen-evolution catalyst layer is systematically elucidated.

Is light-induced degradation of a-Si:H/c-Si interfaces reversible?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El Mhamdi, El Mahdi; Holovsky, Jakub; Demaurex, Bénédicte

2014-06-23

Thin hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) films deposited on crystalline silicon (c-Si) surfaces are sensitive probes for the bulk electronic properties of a-Si:H. Here, we use such samples during repeated low-temperature annealing and visible-light soaking to investigate the long-term stability of a-Si:H films. We observe that during annealing the electronic improvement of the interfaces follows stretched exponentials as long as hydrogen evolution in the films can be detected. Once such evolution is no longer observed, the electronic improvement occurs much faster. Based on these findings, we discuss how the reversibility of light-induced defects depends on (the lack of observable) hydrogen evolution.

Justifying and Proving in the Cabri Environment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mariotti, Maria Alessandra

2001-01-01

Describes a long term teaching experiment carried out with students from grades 9 and 10. Aims at clarifying the role of the Cabri environment in teaching-learning processes. Analysis of protocols shows the possible evolution of a justification into a proof but at the same time indicates that this evolution is not expected to be simple and…

Evolution of Cygnus X-3 through its Radio and X-ray States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Szostek, A.; Zdziarski, A. A.; McCollough, M. L.

2009-05-01

Based on X-ray spectra and studies of the long-term correlated behavior between radio and soft X-ray, we present a detailed evolution of Cyg X-3 through its radio and X-ray states. We comment on the nature of the hard X-ray tail and possible Simbol X contribution in constraining the models.

Highway to Space: The Direct Connection Between the Lower and the Upper Atmosphere of Mars Sheds a New Light on the History of Water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montmessin, F.; Lefèvre, F.; Korablev, O.; Fedorova, A.; Bertaux, J.-L.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Chaffin, M.; Schneider, N.; Maltagliati, L.; Määttänen, A.; Trokhimovsky, A.

2014-07-01

We present a synthesis of the decade-long Mars Express SPICAM observations in an attempt to assemble a single, coherent picture that has implications for the long-term evolution of water and hydrogen on Mars.

On the long-term fitness of cells in periodically switching environments.

PubMed

Pang, Ning-Ning; Tzeng, Wen-Jer

2008-01-01

Because all the cell populations are capable of making switches between different genetic expression states in response to the environmental change, Thattai and van Oudenaarden (Genetics 167, 523-530, 2004) have raised a very interesting question: In a constantly fluctuating environment, which type of cell population (heterogeneous or homogeneous) is fitter in the long term? This problem is very important to development and evolution biology. We thus take an extensive analysis about how the cell population evolves in a periodically switching environment either with symmetrical time-span or asymmetrical time-span. A complete picture of the phase diagrams for both cases is obtained. Furthermore, we find that the systems with time-dependent cellular transitions all collapse to the same set of dynamical equations with the modified parameters. Furthermore, we also explain in detail how the fitness problem bears much resemblance to the phenomenon, stochastic resonance, in physical sciences. Our results could be helpful for the biologists to design artificial evolution experiments and unveil the mystery of development and evolution.

Workstation Segment Specification for the World-Wide Military Command and Control (WWMCCS) Information System (WIS)

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-07-01

software eventually, and which indicate the general thrust of evolution and growth capabilities required of the workstation segment. These GRAY sections...configuration control over the evolution of the system. (" - The transition from the WWMCCS Standard ADP system to WIS will be gradual and will be...has been designed to support the workstation needs required for most WIS users, and is the workstation that will support the long-term evolution of

Experiments on the role of deleterious mutations as stepping stones in adaptive evolution

PubMed Central

Covert, Arthur W.; Lenski, Richard E.; Wilke, Claus O.; Ofria, Charles

2013-01-01

Many evolutionary studies assume that deleterious mutations necessarily impede adaptive evolution. However, a later mutation that is conditionally beneficial may interact with a deleterious predecessor before it is eliminated, thereby providing access to adaptations that might otherwise be inaccessible. It is unknown whether such sign-epistatic recoveries are inconsequential events or an important factor in evolution, owing to the difficulty of monitoring the effects and fates of all mutations during experiments with biological organisms. Here, we used digital organisms to compare the extent of adaptive evolution in populations when deleterious mutations were disallowed with control populations in which such mutations were allowed. Significantly higher fitness levels were achieved over the long term in the control populations because some of the deleterious mutations served as stepping stones across otherwise impassable fitness valleys. As a consequence, initially deleterious mutations facilitated the evolution of complex, beneficial functions. We also examined the effects of disallowing neutral mutations, of varying the mutation rate, and of sexual recombination. Populations evolving without neutral mutations were able to leverage deleterious and compensatory mutation pairs to overcome, at least partially, the absence of neutral mutations. Substantially raising or lowering the mutation rate reduced or eliminated the long-term benefit of deleterious mutations, but introducing recombination did not. Our work demonstrates that deleterious mutations can play an important role in adaptive evolution under at least some conditions. PMID:23918358

Experiments on the role of deleterious mutations as stepping stones in adaptive evolution.

PubMed

Covert, Arthur W; Lenski, Richard E; Wilke, Claus O; Ofria, Charles

2013-08-20

Many evolutionary studies assume that deleterious mutations necessarily impede adaptive evolution. However, a later mutation that is conditionally beneficial may interact with a deleterious predecessor before it is eliminated, thereby providing access to adaptations that might otherwise be inaccessible. It is unknown whether such sign-epistatic recoveries are inconsequential events or an important factor in evolution, owing to the difficulty of monitoring the effects and fates of all mutations during experiments with biological organisms. Here, we used digital organisms to compare the extent of adaptive evolution in populations when deleterious mutations were disallowed with control populations in which such mutations were allowed. Significantly higher fitness levels were achieved over the long term in the control populations because some of the deleterious mutations served as stepping stones across otherwise impassable fitness valleys. As a consequence, initially deleterious mutations facilitated the evolution of complex, beneficial functions. We also examined the effects of disallowing neutral mutations, of varying the mutation rate, and of sexual recombination. Populations evolving without neutral mutations were able to leverage deleterious and compensatory mutation pairs to overcome, at least partially, the absence of neutral mutations. Substantially raising or lowering the mutation rate reduced or eliminated the long-term benefit of deleterious mutations, but introducing recombination did not. Our work demonstrates that deleterious mutations can play an important role in adaptive evolution under at least some conditions.

Modeling of Long-Term Evolution of Hydrophysical Fields of the Black Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dorofeyev, V. L.; Sukhikh, L. I.

2017-11-01

The long-term evolution of the Black Sea dynamics (1980-2020) is reconstructed by numerical simulation. The model of the Black Sea circulation has 4.8 km horizontal spatial resolution and 40 levels in z-coordinates. The mixing processes in the upper layer are parameterized by Mellor-Yamada turbulent model. For the sea surface boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing functions were used, provided for the Black Sea region by the Euro mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC) from the COSMO-CLM regional climate model. These data have a spatial resolution of 14 km and a daily temporal resolution. To evaluate the quality of the hydrodynamic fields derived from the simulation, they were compared with in-situ hydrological measurements and similar results from physical reanalysis of the Black Sea.

Diet and the evolution of the earliest human ancestors

PubMed Central

Teaford, Mark F.; Ungar, Peter S.

2000-01-01

Over the past decade, discussions of the evolution of the earliest human ancestors have focused on the locomotion of the australopithecines. Recent discoveries in a broad range of disciplines have raised important questions about the influence of ecological factors in early human evolution. Here we trace the cranial and dental traits of the early australopithecines through time, to show that between 4.4 million and 2.3 million years ago, the dietary capabilities of the earliest hominids changed dramatically, leaving them well suited for life in a variety of habitats and able to cope with significant changes in resource availability associated with long-term and short-term climatic fluctuations. PMID:11095758

Long-term evolution of 1991 DA: A dynamically evolved extinct Halley-type comet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hahn, Gerhard; Bailey, M. E.

1992-01-01

The long-term dynamical evolution of 21 variational orbits for the intermediate-period asteroid 1991 DA was followed for up to +/-10(exp 5) years from the present. 1991 DA is close to the 2:7 resonance with Jupiter; it has avoided close encounters, within 1 AU, with this planet for at least the past 30,000 years, even at the node crossing. The future evolution typically shows no close encounters with Jupiter within at least 50,000 years. This corresponds to the mean time between node crossings with either Jupiter or Saturn. Close encounters with Saturn and Jupiter lead to a chaotic evolution for the whole ensemble, while secular perturbations cause large-amplitude swings in eccentricity and inclination (the latter covering the range 15 deg approximately less than i approximately less than 85 deg) which correlate with deep excursions of the perihelion distance to values much less than 1 AU. These variations are similar to those found in P/Machholz and a variety of other high-inclination orbits, e.g., P/Hartley-IRAS. We emphasize the connection between the orbital evolution of 1991 DA and that of Halley-type comets. If 1991 DA was once a comet, it is not surprising that it is now extinct.

The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

PubMed

Song, Z; Feldman, M W

2013-05-01

The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Using machine learning to explore the long-term evolution of GRS 1915+105

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huppenkothen, Daniela; Heil, Lucy M.; Hogg, David W.; Mueller, Andreas

2017-04-01

Among the population of known Galactic black hole X-ray binaries, GRS 1915+105 stands out in multiple ways. It has been in continuous outburst since 1992, and has shown a wide range of different states that can be distinguished by their timing and spectral properties. These states, also observed in IGR J17091-3624, have in the past been linked to accretion dynamics. Here, we present the first comprehensive study into the long-term evolution of GRS 1915+105, using the entire data set observed with Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer over its 16-yr lifetime. We develop a set of descriptive features allowing for automatic separation of states, and show that supervised machine learning in the form of logistic regression and random forests can be used to efficiently classify the entire data set. For the first time, we explore the duty cycle and time evolution of states over the entire 16-yr time span, and find that the temporal distribution of states has likely changed over the span of the observations. We connect the machine classification with physical interpretations of the phenomenology in terms of chaotic and stochastic processes.

Monitoring California Hardwood Rangeland Resources: An Adaptive Approach

Treesearch

Raul Tuazon

1991-01-01

This paper describes monitoring hardwood rangelands in California within the context of an adaptive or anticipatory approach. A heuristic process of policy evolution under conditions of complexity and uncertainty is presented. Long-term, short-term and program effectiveness monitoring for hardwood rangelands are discussed relative to the process described. The...

Long-Term Research in Ecology and Evolution (LTREE): 2015 survey data.

PubMed

Bradford, Mark A; Leiserowitz, Anthony; Feinberg, Geoffrey; Rosenthal, Seth A; Lau, Jennifer A

2017-11-01

To systematically assess views on contributions and future activities for long-term research in ecology and evolution (LTREE), we conducted and here provide data responses and associated metadata for a survey of ecological and evolutionary scientists. The survey objectives were to: (1) Identify and prioritize research questions that are important to address through long-term, ecological field experiments; and (2) understand the role that these experiments might play in generating and applying ecological and evolutionary knowledge. The survey was developed adhering to the standards of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. It was administered online using Qualtrics Survey Software. Survey creation was a multi-step process, with questions and format developed and then revised with, for example, input from an external advisory committee comprising senior and junior ecological and evolutionary researchers. The final questionnaire was released to ~100 colleagues to ensure functionality and then fielded 2 d later (January 7 th , 2015). Two professional societies distributed it to their membership, including the Ecological Society of America, and it was posted to three list serves. The questionnaire was available through February 8th 2015 and completed by 1,179 respondents. The distribution approach targeted practicing ecologists and evolutionary biologists in the U.S. Quantitative (both ordinal and categorical) closed-ended questions used a predefined set of response categories, facilitating direct comparison across all respondents. Qualitative, open-ended questions, provided respondents the opportunity to develop their own answers. We employed quantitative questions to score views on the extent to which long-term experimental research has contributed to understanding in ecology and evolutionary biology; its role compared to other approaches (e.g., short-term experiments); justifications for and caveats to long-term experiments; and the relative importance of incentives for conducting long-term research. Qualitative questions were used to assess community views on the most important topics and questions for long-term research to address, and primary incentives and challenges to realizing this work. Finally, demographic data were collected to determine if views were conditional on such things as years of experience and field of expertise. The final questionnaire and all responses are provided for unrestricted use. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Loess deposits since early Pleistocene in northeast China and implications for desert evolution in east China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Miao; Zhang, Xujiao; Tian, Mingzhong; Liu, Ru; He, Zexin; Qi, Lin; Qiao, Yansong

2018-04-01

Loess deposits and deserts are regarded as coupled geological systems and loess deposits on the periphery of deserts can often be used to reconstruct desert evolution. Previous studies of desert evolution in Asia are mainly concentrated in northwest China and the China Loess Plateau, and little is known about long-term desert evolution in east China. In this study, we selected the Sishijiazi loess section in the Chifeng area in northeast China to study the long-term evolution of the desert in east China. A high-resolution magnetostratigraphy combined with optically stimulated luminescence dating indicated that the age of the section base is approximately 1.02 Ma. The Brunhes-Matuyama boundary is at the depth of 39.8 m in loess unit L8, and the upper boundary of the Jaramillo Subchron is at the depth of 60.8 m in paleosol S10. The results of grain-size analysis indicate a coarsening grain-size trend in the past 1.0 Ma. In addition, based on grain-size variations, the desert evolution in east China since ∼1.0 Ma can be divided into three stages: stability from 1.0 to 0.8 Ma, desert recession from 0.8 to 0.5 Ma, and gradual expansion since 0.5 Ma. Our results further indicate that the evolution of desert in east China was mainly controlled by changes in global ice volume, and that the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau may have had an additional effect.

Holocene evolution of Apalachicola Bay, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osterman, Lisa E.; Twichell, David C.

2011-01-01

A program of geophysical mapping and vibracoring was conducted in 2007 to better understand the geologic evolution of Apalachicola Bay and its response to sea-level rise. A detailed geologic history could help better understand how this bay may respond to both short-term (for example, storm surge) and long-term sea-level rise. The results of this study were published (Osterman and others, 2009) as part of a special issue of Geo-Marine Letters that documents early results from the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) Ecosystem Change and Hazard Susceptibility Project.

The Glyphosate-Based Herbicide Roundup Does not Elevate Genome-Wide Mutagenesis of Escherichia coli.

PubMed

Tincher, Clayton; Long, Hongan; Behringer, Megan; Walker, Noah; Lynch, Michael

2017-10-05

Mutations induced by pollutants may promote pathogen evolution, for example by accelerating mutations conferring antibiotic resistance. Generally, evaluating the genome-wide mutagenic effects of long-term sublethal pollutant exposure at single-nucleotide resolution is extremely difficult. To overcome this technical barrier, we use the mutation accumulation/whole-genome sequencing (MA/WGS) method as a mutagenicity test, to quantitatively evaluate genome-wide mutagenesis of Escherichia coli after long-term exposure to a wide gradient of the glyphosate-based herbicide (GBH) Roundup Concentrate Plus. The genome-wide mutation rate decreases as GBH concentration increases, suggesting that even long-term GBH exposure does not compromise the genome stability of bacteria. Copyright © 2017 Tincher et al.

Long-term conditioning of deep-seated rockslides in deglaciated valleys: the Spriana case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliardi, Federico; Crosta, Giovanni B.

2015-04-01

Deep-seated rockslides in alpine valleys evolve over long time under the action of multiple triggers. Early Warning based on monitoring is often the only effective approach to cope with these landslides, but it requires an improved understanding of mechanisms interplaying over long time. Deep-seated rockslides are often characterized by long-term 'creep' and seasonal displacement components, contributing to measured displacement patterns which are often modelled as rockslide responses to hydrologic perturbations. Although this hydro-mechanical modelling approach fits the behaviour of disrupted rockslide masses with well-developed shear zones, it is often insufficient to explain the initial onset and the long-term components of creep movements of deep-seated rockslides. This outlines the need to link long-term evolution of rock slopes and their sensitivity to triggers. We discuss the Spriana rockslide, affecting the steep left-hand flank of Val Malenco (italian Central Alps). Documented instabilities date back to 1912, whereas the rockslide underwent major acceleration stages in 1960 and 1977-78 and later minor reactivations. We reviewed a large amount of data collected since 1978 by extensive geotechnical site investigation (borehole drilling, exploratory adits, and seismic refraction) and monitoring activities (ground surface and deep displacements, pore pressures) motivated by potential catastrophic collapse threatening the city of Sondrio area. We performed rock mass characterization based on laboratory studies on intact rock samples, field surveys and drillcore logging. These data allowed re-evaluating the geological model of the Spriana rockslide, which is a compound slide of up to 50 Mm3 of slope debris and fractured gneiss, with multiple shear failure zones up to 90 m deep. Two main scarps developed in different stages, suggesting progressive failure processes. The rockslide creeps at slow rates of 0.4-3 cm/a, and undergoes acceleration stages (weeks to months) during increased water recharge periods. Heavily fractured rock masses occur below rockslide base up to 150 m in depth, suggesting extensive rock mass damage pre-dating rockslide onset. Groundwater monitoring shows that this fractured layer hosts a perched water table characterized by annual fluctuations up to 3 m. To gain insights in the long-term slope evolution we performed 2D Finite-Element multi-stage stress-strain and seepage modelling, accounting for post-LGM deglaciation, damage and related changes in slope strength and hydrology. Results validated using investigation data show that rockslide onset would have been unlikely without the strong preconditioning of long-term damage related to deglaciation. This led to a two-layer hydro-mechanical slope differentiation, with a fractured upper layer hosting a perched water table that favoured rockslide onset. Once structured, the rockslide became more sensitive to short-term hydrologic triggers, with displacement rates increasing in response to groundwater recharge related to critical values of antecedent (7 to 30 days) rainfall. Our results outline the importance of accounting for long-term slope evolution when dealing with rockslides evolving over 102-103 year timescales, and point to the need of modelling approaches able to relate changing hydro-mechanical properties of slopes to long-term damage processes.

DaDyn-RS: a tool for the time-dependent simulation of damage, fluid pressure and long-term instability in alpine rock slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, Federico; Agliardi, Federico; Amitrano, David; Crosta, Giovanni B.

2017-04-01

Large mountain slopes in alpine environments undergo a complex long-term evolution from glacial to postglacial environments, through a transient period of paraglacial readjustment. During and after this transition, the interplay among rock strength, topographic relief, and morpho-climatic drivers varying in space and time can lead to the development of different types of slope instability, from sudden catastrophic failures to large, slow, long-lasting yet potentially catastrophic rockslides. Understanding the long-term evolution of large rock slopes requires accounting for the time-dependence of deglaciation unloading, permeability and fluid pressure distribution, displacements and failure mechanisms. In turn, this is related to a convincing description of rock mass damage processes and to their transition from a sub-critical (progressive failure) to a critical (catastrophic failure) character. Although mechanisms of damage occurrence in rocks have been extensively studied in the laboratory, the description of time-dependent damage under gravitational load and variable external actions remains difficult. In this perspective, starting from a time-dependent model conceived for laboratory rock deformation, we developed Dadyn-RS, a tool to simulate the long-term evolution of real, large rock slopes. Dadyn-RS is a 2D, FEM model programmed in Matlab, which combines damage and time-to-failure laws to reproduce both diffused damage and strain localization meanwhile tracking long-term slope displacements from primary to tertiary creep stages. We implemented in the model the ability to account for rock mass heterogeneity and property upscaling, time-dependent deglaciation, as well as damage-dependent fluid pressure occurrence and stress corrosion. We first tested DaDyn-RS performance on synthetic case studies, to investigate the effect of the different model parameters on the mechanisms and timing of long-term slope behavior. The model reproduces complex interactions between topography, deglaciation rate, mechanical properties and fluid pressure occurrence, resulting in different kinematics, damage patterns and timing of slope instabilities. We assessed the role of groundwater on slope damage and deformation mechanisms by introducing time-dependent pressure cycling within simulations. Then, we applied DaDyn-RS to real slopes located in the Italian Central Alps, affected by an active rockslide and a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation, respectively. From Last Glacial Maximum to present conditions, our model allows reproducing in an explicitly time-dependent framework the progressive development of damage-induced permeability, strain localization and shear band differentiation at different times between the Lateglacial period and the Mid-Holocene climatic transition. Different mechanisms and timings characterize different styles of slope deformations, consistently with available dating constraints. DaDyn-RS is able to account for different long-term slope dynamics, from slow creep to the delayed transition to fast-moving rockslides.

New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

2011-01-01

Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

Environment overwhelms both nature and nurture in a model spin glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Middleton, A. Alan; Yang, Jie

We are interested in exploring what information determines the particular history of the glassy long term dynamics in a disordered material. We study the effect of initial configurations and the realization of stochastic dynamics on the long time evolution of configurations in a two-dimensional Ising spin glass model. The evolution of nearest neighbor correlations is computed using patchwork dynamics, a coarse-grained numerical heuristic for temporal evolution. The dependence of the nearest neighbor spin correlations at long time on both initial spin configurations and noise histories are studied through cross-correlations of long-time configurations and the spin correlations are found to be independent of both. We investigate how effectively rigid bond clusters coarsen. Scaling laws are used to study the convergence of configurations and the distribution of sizes of nearly rigid clusters. The implications of the computational results on simulations and phenomenological models of spin glasses are discussed. We acknowledge NSF support under DMR-1410937 (CMMT program).

Predicting evolutionary rescue via evolving plasticity in stochastic environments

PubMed Central

Baskett, Marissa L.

2016-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and its evolution may help evolutionary rescue in a novel and stressful environment, especially if environmental novelty reveals cryptic genetic variation that enables the evolution of increased plasticity. However, the environmental stochasticity ubiquitous in natural systems may alter these predictions, because high plasticity may amplify phenotype–environment mismatches. Although previous studies have highlighted this potential detrimental effect of plasticity in stochastic environments, they have not investigated how it affects extinction risk in the context of evolutionary rescue and with evolving plasticity. We investigate this question here by integrating stochastic demography with quantitative genetic theory in a model with simultaneous change in the mean and predictability (temporal autocorrelation) of the environment. We develop an approximate prediction of long-term persistence under the new pattern of environmental fluctuations, and compare it with numerical simulations for short- and long-term extinction risk. We find that reduced predictability increases extinction risk and reduces persistence because it increases stochastic load during rescue. This understanding of how stochastic demography, phenotypic plasticity, and evolution interact when evolution acts on cryptic genetic variation revealed in a novel environment can inform expectations for invasions, extinctions, or the emergence of chemical resistance in pests. PMID:27655762

Evolution of continental-scale drainage in response to mantle dynamics and surface processes: An example from the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembroni, Andrea; Molin, Paola; Pazzaglia, Frank J.; Faccenna, Claudio; Abebe, Bekele

2016-05-01

Ethiopia offers an excellent opportunity to study the effects and linkage between mantle dynamics and surface processes on landscape evolution. The Ethiopian Highlands (NW Ethiopia), characterized by a huge basaltic plateau, is part of the African Superswell, a wide region of dynamically-supported anomalously high topography related to the rising of the Afar plume. The initiation and steadiness of dynamic support beneath Ethiopia has been explored in several studies. However the presence, role, and timing of dynamic support beneath Ethiopia and its relationship with continental flood basalts volcanism and surface processes are poorly defined. Here, we present a geomorphological analysis of the Ethiopian Highlands supplying new constraints on the evolution of river network. We investigated the general topographic features (filtered topography, swath profiles, local relief) and the river network (river longitudinal profiles) of the study area. We also apply a knickpoint celerity model in order to provide a chronological framework to the evolution of the river network. The results trace the long-term progressive capture of the Ethiopian Highlands drainage system and confirm the long-term dynamic support of the area, documenting its impact on the contrasting development of the Blue Nile and Tekeze basins.

Evolution of continental-scale drainage in response to mantle dynamics and surface processes: an example from the Ethiopian Highlands.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sembroni, Andrea; Molin, Paola; Pazzaglia, Frank J.; Faccenna, Claudio; Abebe, Bekele

2016-04-01

Ethiopia offers an excellent opportunity to study the effects and linkage between mantle dynamics and surface processes on landscape evolution. The Ethiopian Highlands (NW Ethiopia), characterized by a huge basaltic plateau, is part of the African Superswell, a wide region of dynamically-supported anomalously high topography related to the rising of the Afar plume. The initiation and steadiness of dynamic support beneath Ethiopia has been explored in several studies. However the presence, role, and timing of dynamic support beneath Ethiopia and its relationship with continental flood basalts volcanism and surface processes are poorly defined. Here, we present a geomorphological analysis of the Ethiopian Highlands supplying new constrains on the evolution of river network. We investigated the general topographic features (filtered topography, swath profiles, local relief) and the river network (river longitudinal profiles) of the study area. We also apply a knickpoint celerity model in order to provide a chronological framework to the evolution of the river network. The results trace the long-term progressive capture of the Ethiopian Highlands drainage system and confirm the long-term dynamic support of the area, documenting its impact on the contrasting development of the Blue Nile and Tekeze basins.

Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L.

2010-09-01

Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index.

Heliophysics: Evolving Solar Activity and the Climates of Space and Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schrijver, Carolus J.; Siscoe, George L.

2012-01-01

Preface; 1. Interconnectedness in heliophysics Carolus J. Schrijver and George L. Siscoe; 2. Long-term evolution of magnetic activity of Sun-like stars Carolus J. Schrijver; 3. Formation and early evolution of stars and proto-planetary disks Lee W. Hartmann; 4. Planetary habitability on astronomical time scales Donald E. Brownlee; 5. Solar internal flows and dynamo action Mark S. Miesch; 6. Modeling solar and stellar dynamos Paul Charbonneau; 7. Planetary fields and dynamos Ulrich R. Christensen; 8. The structure and evolution of the 3D solar wind John T. Gosling; 9. The heliosphere and cosmic rays J. Randy Jokipii; 10. Solar spectral irradiance: measurements and models Judith L. Lean and Thomas N. Woods; 11. Astrophysical influences on planetary climate systems Juerg Beer; 12. Evaluating the drivers of Earth's climate system Thomas J. Crowley; 13. Ionospheres of the terrestrial planets Stanley C. Solomon; 14. Long-term evolution of the geospace climate Jan J. Sojka; 15. Waves and transport processes in atmospheres and oceans Richard L. Walterscheid; 16. Solar variability, climate, and atmospheric photochemistry Guy P. Brasseur, Daniel Marsch and Hauke Schmidt; Appendix I. Authors and editors; List of illustrations; List of tables; Bibliography; Index.

Coupling SPH and thermochemical models of planets: Methodology and example of a Mars-sized body

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golabek, G. J.; Emsenhuber, A.; Jutzi, M.; Asphaug, E. I.; Gerya, T. V.

2018-02-01

Giant impacts have been suggested to explain various characteristics of terrestrial planets and their moons. However, so far in most models only the immediate effects of the collisions have been considered, while the long-term interior evolution of the impacted planets was not studied. Here we present a new approach, combining 3-D shock physics collision calculations with 3-D thermochemical interior evolution models. We apply the combined methods to a demonstration example of a giant impact on a Mars-sized body, using typical collisional parameters from previous studies. While the material parameters (equation of state, rheology model) used in the impact simulations can have some effect on the long-term evolution, we find that the impact angle is the most crucial parameter for the resulting spatial distribution of the newly formed crust. The results indicate that a dichotomous crustal pattern can form after a head-on collision, while this is not the case when considering a more likely grazing collision. Our results underline that end-to-end 3-D calculations of the entire process are required to study in the future the effects of large-scale impacts on the evolution of planetary interiors.

Holocene Evolution of Incised Coastal Channels on the Isle of Wight, UK: Interpretation via Numerical Simulation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leyland, J.; Darby, S. E.

2006-12-01

Incised coastal channels are found in numerous locations around the world where the shoreline morphology consists of cliffs. The incised coastal channels found on the Isle of Wight, UK, are known locally as `Chines' and debouche (up to 45m) through the soft cliffs of the south west coast, maintaining steep side walls subject to deep-seated mass wasting. These canyons offer sheltered locations and bare substrate, providing habitat for plant (Philonotis marchica, Anthoceros punctatos) and invertebrate (Psen atratinus, Baris analis, Melitaea cinxi) species of international importance. The base level of the Chines is highly dynamic, with episodes of sea cliff erosion causing the rejuvenation of the channel network. Consequently a key factor in Chine evolution is the relative balance between rates of cliff retreat and headwards incision caused by knickpoint migration. Specifically, there is concern that if contemporary coastal retreat rates are higher than the corresponding rates of knickpoint recession, there will be long-term a reduction in the overall extent of the Chines and their associated habitats. In an attempt to provide a long-term context for these issues, in this poster we explore the Holocene erosional history of the Chines using a numerical landscape evolution model. The model includes a stochastic cliff recession function that controls the position of the outlet boundary. Knickpoint recession rates are simulated using a detachment-limited channel erosion law wherein erosion rate is a power function of drainage area and stream gradient with model parameters defined using empirically- derived data. Simulations are undertaken for a range of imposed boundary conditions representing different scenarios of long-term cliff retreat forced by Holocene sea-level rise, plausible scenarios corresponding to cases where simulated and observed Chine and landscape forms match. The study provides an example of how a landscape evolution model could be used to reconstruct Holocene coastal processes, as well as providing the long-term context necessary to manage Chine habitats appropriately. In particular a critical threshold drainage area is defined that provides knickpoint recession rates that are sufficient to generate self- sustaining Chines in relation to cliff recession rates.

Long-term evolution of the force-free twisted magnetosphere of a magnetar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgün, T.; Cerdá-Durán, P.; Miralles, J. A.; Pons, J. A.

2017-12-01

We study the long-term quasi-steady evolution of the force-free magnetosphere of a magnetar coupled to its internal magnetic field. We find that magnetospheric currents can be maintained on long time-scales of the order of thousands of years. Meanwhile, the energy, helicity and twist stored in the magnetosphere all gradually increase over the course of this evolution, until a critical point is reached, beyond which a force-free magnetosphere cannot be constructed. At this point, some large-scale magnetospheric rearrangement, possibly resulting in an outburst or a flare, must occur, releasing a large fraction of the stored energy, helicity and twist. After that, the quasi-steady evolution should continue in a similar manner from the new initial conditions. The time-scale for reaching this critical point depends on the overall magnetic field strength and on the relative fraction of the toroidal field. The energy stored in the force-free magnetosphere is found to be up to ∼30 per cent larger than the corresponding vacuum energy. This implies that for a 1014 G field at the pole, the energy budget available for fast magnetospheric events is of the order of a few 1044 erg. The spin-down rate is estimated to increase by up to ∼60 per cent, since the dipole content in the magnetosphere is enhanced by the currents present there. A rough estimate of the braking index n reveals that it is systematically n < 3 for the most part of the evolution, consistent with actual measurements for pulsars and early estimates for several magnetars.

Dancing the Two-Step in Ontario's Long-term Care Sector: More Deterrence-oriented Regulation = Ownership and Management Consolidation.

PubMed

Daly, Tamara

2015-03-01

This paper explores shifts in public and private delivery over time through an analysis of Ontario's approach to LTC funding and regulation in relation to other jurisdictions in Canada and abroad. The case of Ontario's long-term care (LTC) policy evolution - from the 1940s until early 2013 -- shows how moving from compliance to deterrence oriented regulation can support consolidation of commercial providers' ownership and increase the likelihood of non-profit and public providers outsourcing their management.

Study of advanced techniques for determining the long-term performance of components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

A study was conducted of techniques having the capability of determining the performance and reliability of components for spacecraft liquid propulsion applications for long term missions. The study utilized two major approaches; improvement in the existing technology, and the evolution of new technology. The criteria established and methods evolved are applicable to valve components. Primary emphasis was placed on the propellants oxygen difluoride and diborane combination. The investigation included analysis, fabrication, and tests of experimental equipment to provide data and performance criteria.

The Mars water cycle at other epochs: History of the polar caps and layered terrain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jakosky, Bruce M.; Henderson, Bradley G.; Mellon, Michael T.

1992-01-01

The atmospheric water cycle at the present epoch involves summertime sublimation of water from the north polar cap, transport of water through the atmosphere, and condensation on one or both winter CO2 caps. Exchange with the regolith is important seasonally, but the water content of the atmosphere appears to be controlled by the polar caps. The net annual transport through the atmosphere, integrated over long timescales, must be the driving force behind the long-term evolution of the polar caps; clearly, this feeds back into the evolution of the layered terrain. We have investigated the behavior of the seasonal water cycle and the net integrated behavior at the pole for the last 10 exp 7 years. Our model of the water cycle includes the solar input, CO2 condensation and sublimation, and summertime water sublimation through the seasonal cycles, and incorporates the long-term variations in the orbital elements describing the Martian orbit.

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Residual Viremia in Treated HIV+ Individuals

DOE PAGES

Conway, Jessica M.; Perelson, Alan S.

2016-01-06

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. However, some residual virus remains, below the level of detection, in HIV-infected patients on ART. Furthermore, the source of this viremia is an area of debate: does it derive primarily from activation of infected cells in the latent reservoir, or from ongoing viral replication? Our observations seem to be contradictory: there is evidence of short term evolution, implying that there must be ongoing viral replication, and viral strains should thus evolve. The phylogenetic analyses, and rare emergent drug resistance, suggest no long-term viral evolution, implying that virus derived frommore » activated latent cells must dominate. We use simple deterministic and stochastic models to gain insight into residual viremia dynamics in HIV-infected patients. Our modeling relies on two underlying assumptions for patients on suppressive ART: that latent cell activation drives viral dynamics and that the reproductive ratio of treated infection is less than 1. Nonetheless, the contribution of viral replication to residual viremia in patients on ART may be non-negligible. However, even if the portion of viremia attributable to viral replication is significant, our model predicts (1) that latent reservoir re-seeding remains negligible, and (2) some short-term viral evolution is permitted, but long-term evolution can still be limited: stochastic analysis of our model shows that de novo emergence of drug resistance is rare. Thus, our simple models reconcile the seemingly contradictory observations on residual viremia and, with relatively few parameters, recapitulates HIV viral dynamics observed in patients on suppressive therapy.« less

Solar radiation and landscape evolution: co-evolution of topography, vegetation, and erosion rates in a semi-arid ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Yetemen, Omer

2016-04-01

In this study CHILD landscape evolution model (LEM) is used to study the role of solar radiation on the co-evolution of landscape morphology, vegetation patterns, and erosion rates in a central New Mexico catchment. In the study site north facing slopes (NFS) are characterized by steep diffusion-dominated planar hillslopes covered by co-exiting juniper pine and grass vegetation. South facing slopes (SFS) are characterized by shallow slopes and covered by sparse shrub vegetation. Measured short-term and Holocene-averaged erosion rates show higher soil loss on SFS than NFS. In this study CHILD LEM is first confirmed with ecohydrologic field data and used to systematically examine the co-evolution of topography, vegetation pattern, and erosion rates. Aspect- and network-control are identified as the two main topographic drivers of soil moisture and vegetation organization on the landscape. Landscape-scale and long-term implications of solar radiation driven ecohdrologic patterns emerged in modeled landscape: NFS supported denser vegetation cover and became steeper and planar, while on SFS vegetation grew sparser and slopes declined with more fluvial activity. At the landscape scale, these differential erosion processes led to asymmetric development of catchment forms, consistent with regional observations. While the general patterns of vegetation and topography were reproduced by the model using a stationary representation of the current climate, the observed differential Holocene erosion rates were captured by the model only when cyclic climate is used. This suggests sensitivity of Holocene erosion rates to long-term climate fluctuations.

Methods of geometrical integration in accelerator physics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrianov, S. N.

2016-12-01

In the paper we consider a method of geometric integration for a long evolution of the particle beam in cyclic accelerators, based on the matrix representation of the operator of particles evolution. This method allows us to calculate the corresponding beam evolution in terms of two-dimensional matrices including for nonlinear effects. The ideology of the geometric integration introduces in appropriate computational algorithms amendments which are necessary for preserving the qualitative properties of maps presented in the form of the truncated series generated by the operator of evolution. This formalism extends both on polarized and intense beams. Examples of practical applications are described.

Structure and Evolution of the Foreign Exchange Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwapień, J.; Gworek, S.; Drożdż, S.

2009-01-01

We investigate topology and temporal evolution of the foreign currency exchange market viewed from a weighted network perspective. Based on exchange rates for a set of 46 currencies (including precious metals), we construct different representations of the FX network depending on a choice of the base currency. Our results show that the network structure is not stable in time, but there are main clusters of currencies, which persist for a long period of time despite the fact that their size and content are variable. We find a long-term trend in the network's evolution which affects the USD and EUR nodes. In all the network representations, the USD node gradually loses its centrality, while, on contrary, the EUR node has become slightly more central than it used to be in its early years. Despite this directional trend, the overall evolution of the network is noisy.

Frozen storage effects on anthocyanins and volatile compounds of raspberry fruit.

PubMed

de Ancos, B; Ibañez, E; Reglero, G; Cano, M P

2000-03-01

The quantitative and qualitative evolution of the anthocyanins and volatile compounds of four raspberry cultivars (cvs. Heritage, Autumn Bliss, Zeva, and Rubi) growing in Spain were analyzed raw, just frozen, and during long-term frozen storage at -20 degrees C for a 1 year period. HS-SPME coupled with GC-MS and HPLC techniques were employed to study the evolution of the volatile compounds and the individual anthocyanins, respectively. The volatile aroma composition changes produced by the freezing process and long-term frozen storage were minimal. Only a significant increase in extraction capacity was obtained for alpha-ionone (27%) and for caryophyllene (67%) in Heritage at 12 months of storage. The stability of anthocyanins to freezing and frozen storage depends on the seasonal period of harvest. Heritage and Autumn Bliss (early cultivars) were less affected by processing and long-term frozen storage (1 year), and the total pigment extracted showed the tendency to increase 17 and 5%, respectively. Rubi and Zeva (late cultivars) suffered a decreased trend on the total anthocyanin content of 4% for Rubi and 17.5% for Zeva. Cyanidin 3-glucoside most easily suffered the degradative reactions that take place during processing and the storage period.

Vaccine-derived poliovirus from long term excretors and the end game of polio eradication.

PubMed

Martín, Javier

2006-06-01

Seven cases of long-term poliovirus excretion in the UK and Ireland are reviewed in this paper. They include a rare case of long-term virus excretion by a healthy child recently found in Ireland and the case with the longest period of vaccine-derived poliovirus excretion by an immunodeficient individual ever known, 18 years. The evolution of viral properties such as antigenic structure, neurovirulence, sensitivity for growth at high temperatures, and differences in nucleotide sequence from the Sabin vaccine strains were studied in detail. The relevance of these cases in the context of the global polio eradication initiative and the design of vaccination strategies for the last stages of eradication and the post-eradication era are discussed.

Graphene quantum dots to enhance the photocatalytic hydrogen evolution efficiency of anatase TiO2 with exposed {001} facet.

PubMed

Yu, Shan; Zhong, Yun-Qian; Yu, Bao-Quan; Cai, Shi-Yi; Wu, Li-Zhu; Zhou, Ying

2016-07-27

Hydrogen evolution through photocatalysis is promising with respect to the environmental problems and challenges of energy shortage that we encounter today. In this paper, we have combined graphene quantum dots (GQDs) and {001} faceted anatase TiO2 (with an exposed percentage of 65-75%) together for effective photocatalytic hydrogen evolution. A series of characterizations including X-ray diffraction, transmission electron microscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy and UV-visible absorption spectroscopy have been carried out to study the structure of the as-prepared GQDs/{001}TiO2 composite. It turns out that GQDs could be effectively decorated on {001}TiO2 sheet without changing its intrinsic structure. With an optimum loading amount of GQDs (0.5 wt% to {001}TiO2), GQDs/{001}TiO2 exhibits a hydrogen evolution efficiency 8 times higher than that of bare {001}TiO2, which is a significantly more obvious improvement than many other photocatalytic systems relevant to GQDs and TiO2 hybrids. In addition, GQDs/{001}TiO2 could stand long-term photocatalytic experiments. Photocurrent tests show that such an improvement of the photocatalytic efficiency over GQDs/{001}TiO2 may originate from a higher charge separation efficiency. The present study could offer reference for the construction of photocatalytic hydrogen evolution systems with low cost and long term stability.

A model for the hydrologic and climatic behavior of water on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clifford, Stephen M.

1993-01-01

An analysis is carried out of the hydrologic response of a water-rich Mars to climate change and to the physical and thermal evolution of its crust, with particular attention given to the potential role of the subsurface transport, assuming that the current models of insolation-driven change describe reasonably the atmospheric leg of the planet's long-term hydrologic cycle. Among the items considered are the thermal and hydrologic properties of the crust, the potential distribution of ground ice and ground water, the stability and replenishment of equatorial ground ice, basal melting and the polar mass balance, the thermal evolution of the early cryosphere, the recharge of the valley networks and outflow, and several processes that are likely to drive the large-scale vertical and horizontal transport of H2O within the crust. The results lead to the conclusion that subsurface transport has likely played an important role in the geomorphic evolution of the Martian surface and the long-term cycling of H2O between the atmosphere, polar caps, and near-surface crust.

Rotational and X-ray luminosity evolution of high-B radio pulsars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benli, Onur; Ertan, Ünal

2018-05-01

In continuation of our earlier work on the long-term evolution of the so-called high-B radio pulsars (HBRPs) with measured braking indices, we have investigated the long-term evolution of the remaining five HBRPs for which braking indices have not been measured yet. This completes our source-by-source analyses of HBRPs in the fallback disc model that was also applied earlier to anomalous X-ray pulsars (AXPs), soft gamma repeaters (SGRs), and dim isolated neutron stars (XDINs). Our results show that the X-ray luminosities and the rotational properties of these rather different neutron star populations can be acquired by neutron stars with fallback discs as a result of differences in their initial conditions, namely the initial disc mass, initial period and the dipole field strength. For the five HBRPs, unlike for AXPs, SGRs and XDINs, our results do not constrain the dipole field strengths of the sources. We obtain evolutionary paths leading to the properties of HBRPs in the propeller phase with dipole fields sufficiently strong to produce pulsed radio emission.

Photospheric and coronal magnetic fields in six magnetographs. I. Consistent evolution of the bashful ballerina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, Ilpo; Mursula, Kalevi

2016-06-01

Aims: We study the long-term evolution of photospheric and coronal magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), especially its north-south asymmetry. Special attention is paid to the reliability of the six data sets used in this study and to the consistency of the results based on these data sets. Methods: We use synoptic maps constructed from Wilcox Solar Observatory (WSO), Mount Wilson Observatory (MWO), Kitt Peak (KP), SOLIS, SOHO/MDI, and SDO/HMI measurements of the photospheric field and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model. Results: The six data sets depict a fairly similar long-term evolution of magnetic fields and the heliospheric current sheet, including polarity reversals and hemispheric asymmetry. However, there are time intervals of several years long, when first KP measurements in the 1970s and 1980s, and later WSO measurements in the 1990s and early 2000s, significantly deviate from the other simultaneous data sets, reflecting likely errors at these times. All of the six magnetographs agree on the southward shift of the heliospheric current sheet (the so-called bashful ballerina phenomenon) in the declining to minimum phase of the solar cycle during a few years of the five included cycles. We show that during solar cycles 20-22, the southward shift of the HCS is mainly due to the axial quadrupole term, reflecting the stronger magnetic field intensity at the southern pole during these times. During cycle 23 the asymmetry is less persistent and mainly due to higher harmonics than the quadrupole term. Currently, in the early declining phase of cycle 24, the HCS is also shifted southward and is mainly due to the axial quadrupole as for most earlier cycles. This further emphasizes the special character of the global solar field during cycle 23.

Unraveling the controls on biogeomorphic succession: the influence of groundwater, soil and geomorphic setting on bio-geomorphic channel evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bätz, Nico; Verrecchia, Eric P.; Lane, Stuart N.

2017-04-01

Braided rivers are characterized by high rates of morphological change. However, despite the potential for frequent disturbance, vegetated patches may develop within this system and influence long-term channel dynamics and channel patterns through the "engineering effects" of biogeomorphic succession. The stabilizing effect of developing vegetation on morphological change has been widely shown by flume experiments and (historic) aerial pictures analysis. Thus, there is a balance between disturbance and stabilization, mediated through biogeomorphic succession, that may determine the long-term geomorphic and biogeomorphic evolution of the river. Research has addressed how changes in disturbance frequency affect river channel pattern, but much less has been done to understand what influences the rate of biogeomorphic succession and how it affects river morphodynamics. This study explores the complex pattern of ambient conditions in braided river systems driving the rate of biogeomorphic succession. In particular, we focus on the interplay between groundwater access, soil formation, disturbance frequency and geomorphic setting, in defining what drives vegetation succession rates and its long-term implications on channel pattern evolution. We studied these feedbacks in a transitional gravel-bed river system (braided, wandering, meandering) close to Geneva (Switzerland) - the Allondon River. Results show that, at the beginning of the succession, humification plays a negative role on local ambient conditions necessary for sprouting. Successful vegetation establishment is then related positively to humification, but also to higher disturbance rates. The third biogeomorphic phase, with the highest feedbacks on river morphology, appears to be mainly driven by groundwater access, which in turn defines the rates of humification in this gravelly environment. This in turn defines the decadal morphological response of the channel after a reduction in disturbance frequency over the last 50 years. Overall, these results show how the functioning and the developing ecosystem at local scale affect the ecosystem resilience at a larger scale, and thus affects the long-term geomorphological river response.

Evolution from Packet Utilisation to Mission Operation Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Sam; Forwell, Stuart D.

2012-08-01

The ECSS Packet Utilisation Standard (PUS) and the forthcoming CCSDS Mission Operations (MO) Services occupy a very similar domain. This paper discusses the history of the two standards, their relationship and how the two can co-exist in the near term and long terms. It also covers implications with implementing MO services in current and future on-board architectures.

Convergent Metabolic Specialization through Distinct Evolutionary Paths in Pseudomonas aeruginosa.

PubMed

La Rosa, Ruggero; Johansen, Helle Krogh; Molin, Søren

2018-04-10

Evolution by natural selection under complex and dynamic environmental conditions occurs through intricate and often counterintuitive trajectories affecting many genes and metabolic solutions. To study short- and long-term evolution of bacteria in vivo , we used the natural model system of cystic fibrosis (CF) infection. In this work, we investigated how and through which trajectories evolution of Pseudomonas aeruginosa occurs when migrating from the environment to the airways of CF patients, and specifically, we determined reduction of growth rate and metabolic specialization as signatures of adaptive evolution. We show that central metabolic pathways of three distinct Pseudomonas aeruginosa lineages coevolving within the same environment become restructured at the cost of versatility during long-term colonization. Cell physiology changes from naive to adapted phenotypes resulted in (i) alteration of growth potential that particularly converged to a slow-growth phenotype, (ii) alteration of nutritional requirements due to auxotrophy, (iii) tailored preference for carbon source assimilation from CF sputum, (iv) reduced arginine and pyruvate fermentation processes, and (v) increased oxygen requirements. Interestingly, although convergence was evidenced at the phenotypic level of metabolic specialization, comparative genomics disclosed diverse mutational patterns underlying the different evolutionary trajectories. Therefore, distinct combinations of genetic and regulatory changes converge to common metabolic adaptive trajectories leading to within-host metabolic specialization. This study gives new insight into bacterial metabolic evolution during long-term colonization of a new environmental niche. IMPORTANCE Only a few examples of real-time evolutionary investigations in environments outside the laboratory are described in the scientific literature. Remembering that biological evolution, as it has progressed in nature, has not taken place in test tubes, it is not surprising that conclusions from our investigations of bacterial evolution in the CF model system are different from what has been concluded from laboratory experiments. The analysis presented here of the metabolic and regulatory driving forces leading to successful adaptation to a new environment provides an important insight into the role of metabolism and its regulatory mechanisms for successful adaptation of microorganisms in dynamic and complex environments. Understanding the trajectories of adaptation, as well as the mechanisms behind slow growth and rewiring of regulatory and metabolic networks, is a key element to understand the adaptive robustness and evolvability of bacteria in the process of increasing their in vivo fitness when conquering new territories. Copyright © 2018 La Rosa et al.

Glacier foreland colonisation: distinguishing between short-term and long-term effects of climate change.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Rüdiger

2002-02-01

By comparing short-term (6 years) observations with long-term (>100 years) community changes reconstructed from the chronosequence along a glacier foreland, I show that the colonisation of recently deglaciated terrain by invertebrates may constitute a process reacting sensitively to temperature fluctuations. Early colonising stages (<30 years old) currently develop faster, and intermediate successional stages (30-50 years old) slower, than would be indicated by the long-term chronosequence pattern. These differences between the chronosequence approach and direct observation can be explained by a simple model relating the rate of community evolution to the temperature record. It would mean that an increase of 0.6°C in summer temperatures approximately doubled the speed of initial colonisation, whereas later successional stages were less sensitive to climate change. The present situation appears to result from unusually warm summers around 1950 and a warm period accelerating glacier retreat since 1980. In contrast to the long-term trend, all except the youngest communities have suffered a loss in diversity in recent years.

Interactions between Private Health and Long-term Care Insurance and the Effects of the Crisis: Evidence for Spain.

PubMed

Jiménez-Martín, Sergi; Labeaga-Azcona, José M; Vilaplana-Prieto, Cristina

2016-11-01

This paper analyzes the reasons for the scarce development of the private long-term care insurance market in Spain, and its relationship with health insurance. We are also interested in the effects the crisis has had both on the evolution of the demand for long-term care insurance and on the existence of regional disparities. We estimate bivariate probit models with endogenous variables using Spanish data from the Survey on Health and Retirement in Europe. Our results confirm that individuals wishing to purchase long-term care insurance are, in a sense, forced to subscribe a health insurance policy. In spite of this restriction in the supply of long-term care insurance contracts, we find its demand has grown in recent years, which we attribute to the budget cuts affecting the implementation of Spain's System of Autonomy and Attention to Dependent People. Regional differences in its implementation, as well as the varying effects the crisis has had across Spanish regions, lead to the existence of a crowding-in effect in the demand for long-term care insurance in those regions where co-payment is based on income and wealth, those that have a lower percentage of public long-term care beneficiaries, or those with a smaller share of cash benefits over total public benefits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

De Novo Transcriptome Assembly and Identification of Gene Candidates for Rapid Evolution of Soil Al Tolerance in Anthoxanthum odoratum at the Long-Term Park Grass Experiment

PubMed Central

Gould, Billie; McCouch, Susan; Geber, Monica

2015-01-01

Studies of adaptation in the wild grass Anthoxanthum odoratum at the Park Grass Experiment (PGE) provided one of the earliest examples of rapid evolution in plants. Anthoxanthum has become locally adapted to differences in soil Al toxicity, which have developed there due to soil acidification from long-term experimental fertilizer treatments. In this study, we used transcriptome sequencing to identify Al stress responsive genes in Anthoxanhum and identify candidates among them for further molecular study of rapid Al tolerance evolution at the PGE. We examined the Al content of Anthoxanthum tissues and conducted RNA-sequencing of root tips, the primary site of Al induced damage. We found that despite its high tolerance Anthoxanthum is not an Al accumulating species. Genes similar to those involved in organic acid exudation (TaALMT1, ZmMATE), cell wall modification (OsSTAR1), and internal Al detoxification (OsNRAT1) in cultivated grasses were responsive to Al exposure. Expression of a large suite of novel loci was also triggered by early exposure to Al stress in roots. Three-hundred forty five transcripts were significantly more up- or down-regulated in tolerant vs. sensitive Anthoxanthum genotypes, providing important targets for future study of rapid evolution at the PGE. PMID:26148203

De Novo Transcriptome Assembly and Identification of Gene Candidates for Rapid Evolution of Soil Al Tolerance in Anthoxanthum odoratum at the Long-Term Park Grass Experiment.

PubMed

Gould, Billie; McCouch, Susan; Geber, Monica

2015-01-01

Studies of adaptation in the wild grass Anthoxanthum odoratum at the Park Grass Experiment (PGE) provided one of the earliest examples of rapid evolution in plants. Anthoxanthum has become locally adapted to differences in soil Al toxicity, which have developed there due to soil acidification from long-term experimental fertilizer treatments. In this study, we used transcriptome sequencing to identify Al stress responsive genes in Anthoxanhum and identify candidates among them for further molecular study of rapid Al tolerance evolution at the PGE. We examined the Al content of Anthoxanthum tissues and conducted RNA-sequencing of root tips, the primary site of Al induced damage. We found that despite its high tolerance Anthoxanthum is not an Al accumulating species. Genes similar to those involved in organic acid exudation (TaALMT1, ZmMATE), cell wall modification (OsSTAR1), and internal Al detoxification (OsNRAT1) in cultivated grasses were responsive to Al exposure. Expression of a large suite of novel loci was also triggered by early exposure to Al stress in roots. Three-hundred forty five transcripts were significantly more up- or down-regulated in tolerant vs. sensitive Anthoxanthum genotypes, providing important targets for future study of rapid evolution at the PGE.

A case study in evolutionary contingency.

PubMed

Blount, Zachary D

2016-08-01

Biological evolution is a fundamentally historical phenomenon in which intertwined stochastic and deterministic processes shape lineages with long, continuous histories that exist in a changing world that has a history of its own. The degree to which these characteristics render evolution historically contingent, and evolutionary outcomes thereby unpredictably sensitive to history has been the subject of considerable debate in recent decades. Microbial evolution experiments have proven among the most fruitful means of empirically investigating the issue of historical contingency in evolution. One such experiment is the Escherichia coli Long-Term Evolution Experiment (LTEE), in which twelve populations founded from the same clone of E. coli have evolved in parallel under identical conditions. Aerobic growth on citrate (Cit(+)), a novel trait for E. coli, evolved in one of these populations after more than 30,000 generations. Experimental replays of this population's evolution from various points in its history showed that the Cit(+) trait was historically contingent upon earlier mutations that potentiated the trait by rendering it mutationally accessible. Here I review this case of evolutionary contingency and discuss what it implies about the importance of historical contingency arising from the core processes of evolution. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Precoded MIMO for LTE Wireless Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabilla, A. F.; Tiong, T. C.

2015-04-01

Long-Term Evolution (LTE) and Long Term Evolution-Advanced (ATE-A) have provided a major step forward in mobile communication capability. The objectives to be achieved are high peak data rates in high spectrum bandwidth and high spectral efficiencies. Technically, pre-coding means that multiple data streams are emitted from the transmit antenna with independent and appropriate weightings such that the link throughput is maximized at the receiver output thus increasing or equalizing the received signal to interference and noise (SINR) across the multiple receiver terminals. However, it is not reliable enough to fully utilize the information transfer rate to fit the condition of channel according to the bandwidth size. Thus, adaptive pre-coding is proposed. It applies pre-coding matrix indicator (PMI) channel state making it possible to change the pre-coding codebook accordingly thus improving the data rate higher than fixed pre-coding.

Dancing the Two-Step in Ontario’s Long-term Care Sector: More Deterrence-oriented Regulation = Ownership and Management Consolidation

PubMed Central

Daly, Tamara

2016-01-01

This paper explores shifts in public and private delivery over time through an analysis of Ontario’s approach to LTC funding and regulation in relation to other jurisdictions in Canada and abroad. The case of Ontario’s long-term care (LTC) policy evolution – from the 1940s until early 2013 -- shows how moving from compliance to deterrence oriented regulation can support consolidation of commercial providers’ ownership and increase the likelihood of non-profit and public providers outsourcing their management. PMID:27777495

Changes in the genetic diversity of eastern hemlock as a result of different forest management practices

Treesearch

Gary J. Hawley; Donald H. DeHayes; John C. Brissette

2000-01-01

Loss of populations and individuals within species to human-induced selective forces can result in loss of specific genes and overall genetic diversity upon which productivity, ecosystem stability, long-term survival, and evolution depend. This is particularly true for long-lived organisms, such as forest trees, because genetic diversity confers adaptability necessary...

LightForce Photon-pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Analysis in the Current Debris Environment and Long-Term Simulation Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Fan Y.; Nelson, Bron; Carlino, Roberto; Perez, Andres D.; Faber, Nicolas; Henze, Chris; Karacahoglu, Arif G.; O'Toole, Conor; Swenson, Jason; Stupl, Jan

2015-01-01

This work provides an efficiency analysis of the LightForce space debris collision avoidance scheme in the current debris environment and describes a simulation approach to assess its impact on the long-term evolution of the space debris environment. LightForce aims to provide just-in-time collision avoidance by utilizing photon pressure from ground-based industrial lasers. These ground stations impart minimal accelerations to increase the miss distance for a predicted conjunction between two objects. In the first part of this paper we will present research that investigates the short-term effect of a few systems consisting of 10kW class lasers directed by 1.5 m diameter telescopes using adaptive optics. The results found such a network of ground stations to mitigate more than 85 percent of conjunctions and could lower the expected number of collisions in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) by an order of magnitude. While these are impressive numbers that indicate LightForce's utility in the short-term, the remaining 15 percent of possible collisions contain (among others) conjunctions between two massive objects that would add large amount of debris if they collide. Still, conjunctions between massive objects and smaller objects can be mitigated. Hence we choose to expand the capabilities of the simulation software to investigate the overall effect of a network of LightForce stations on the long-term debris evolution. In the second part of this paper, we will present the planed simulation approach for that effort.

Characteristics and evolution of the ecosystem of software tools supporting research in molecular biology.

PubMed

Pazos, Florencio; Chagoyen, Monica

2018-01-16

Daily work in molecular biology presently depends on a large number of computational tools. An in-depth, large-scale study of that 'ecosystem' of Web tools, its characteristics, interconnectivity, patterns of usage/citation, temporal evolution and rate of decay is crucial for understanding the forces that shape it and for informing initiatives aimed at its funding, long-term maintenance and improvement. In particular, the long-term maintenance of these tools is compromised because of their specific development model. Hundreds of published studies become irreproducible de facto, as the software tools used to conduct them become unavailable. In this study, we present a large-scale survey of >5400 publications describing Web servers within the two main bibliographic resources for disseminating new software developments in molecular biology. For all these servers, we studied their citation patterns, the subjects they address, their citation networks and the temporal evolution of these factors. We also analysed how these factors affect the availability of these servers (whether they are alive). Our results show that this ecosystem of tools is highly interconnected and adapts to the 'trendy' subjects in every moment. The servers present characteristic temporal patterns of citation/usage, and there is a worrying rate of server 'death', which is influenced by factors such as the server popularity and the institutions that hosts it. These results can inform initiatives aimed at the long-term maintenance of these resources. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Phylogenetic approach to the evolution of color term systems

PubMed Central

Haynie, Hannah J.

2016-01-01

The naming of colors has long been a topic of interest in the study of human culture and cognition. Color term research has asked diverse questions about thought and communication, but no previous research has used an evolutionary framework. We show that there is broad support for the most influential theory of color term development (that most strongly represented by Berlin and Kay [Berlin B, Kay P (1969) (Univ of California Press, Berkeley, CA)]); however, we find extensive evidence for the loss (as well as gain) of color terms. We find alternative trajectories of color term evolution beyond those considered in the standard theories. These results not only refine our knowledge of how humans lexicalize the color space and how the systems change over time; they illustrate the promise of phylogenetic methods within the domain of cognitive science, and they show how language change interacts with human perception. PMID:27849594

Evolution: drift will tear us apart.

PubMed

Maderspacher, Florian

2012-11-06

That the widely scattered geographical distribution of some animals could be due to continental drift is a neat idea. Now, cave animals provide evidence for extreme long-term persistence on continents drifting apart. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cyberinfrastructure for Fusarium (CiF)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The rapidly increasing number of genome sequences from diverse fungal species and expanding phylogenetic data necessitate highly integrated informatics platforms to adequately support the use of these resources for studying fungal biology and evolution. The long-term goal of Cyberinfrastructure for...

Accreting, highly magnetized neutron stars at the Eddington limit: a study of the 2016 outburst of SMC X-3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koliopanos, Filippos; Vasilopoulos, Georgios

2018-06-01

Aims: We study the temporal and spectral characteristics of SMC X-3 during its recent (2016) outburst to probe accretion onto highly magnetized neutron stars (NSs) at the Eddington limit. Methods: We obtained XMM-Newton observations of SMC X-3 and combined them with long-term observations by Swift. We performed a detailed analysis of the temporal and spectral behavior of the source, as well as its short- and long-term evolution. We have also constructed a simple toy-model (based on robust theoretical predictions) in order to gain insight into the complex emission pattern of SMC X-3. Results: We confirm the pulse period of the system that has been derived by previous works and note that the pulse has a complex three-peak shape. We find that the pulsed emission is dominated by hard photons, while at energies below 1 keV, the emission does not pulsate. We furthermore find that the shape of the pulse profile and the short- and long-term evolution of the source light-curve can be explained by invoking a combination of a "fan" and a "polar" beam. The results of our temporal study are supported by our spectroscopic analysis, which reveals a two-component emission, comprised of a hard power law and a soft thermal component. We find that the latter produces the bulk of the non-pulsating emission and is most likely the result of reprocessing the primary hard emission by optically thick material that partly obscures the central source. We also detect strong emission lines from highly ionized metals. The strength of the emission lines strongly depends on the phase. Conclusions: Our findings are in agreement with previous works. The energy and temporal evolution as well as the shape of the pulse profile and the long-term spectra evolution of the source are consistent with the expected emission pattern of the accretion column in the super-critical regime, while the large reprocessing region is consistent with the analysis of previously studied X-ray pulsars observed at high accretion rates. This reprocessing region is consistent with recently proposed theoretical and observational works that suggested that highly magnetized NSs occupy a considerable fraction of ultraluminous X-ray sources.

From forest fires to fisheries management: anthropology, conservation biology, and historical ecology.

PubMed

Braje, Todd J; Rick, Torben C

2013-01-01

Human-environmental relationships have long been of interest to a variety of scientists, including ecologists, biologists, anthropologists, and many others. In anthropology, this interest was especially prevalent among cultural ecologists of the 1970s and earlier, who tended to explain culture as the result of techno-environmental constraints. More recently researchers have used historical ecology, an approach that focuses on the long-term dialectical relationship between humans and their environments, as well as long-term prehuman ecological datasets. An important contribution of anthropology to historical ecology is that anthropological datasets dealing with ethnohistory, traditional ecological knowledge, and human skeletal analysis, as well as archeological datasets on faunal and floral remains, artifacts, geochemistry, and stratigraphic analysis, provide a deep time perspective (across decades, centuries, and millennia) on the evolution of ecosystems and the place of people in those larger systems. Historical ecological data also have an applied component that can provide important information on the relative abundances of flora and fauna, changes in biogeography, alternations in food webs, landscape evolution, and much more. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

CD4+ T-cell recovery with suppressive ART-induced rapid sequence evolution in hepatitis C virus envelope but not NS3.

PubMed

Liu, Lin; Nardo, David; Li, Eric; Wang, Gary P

2016-03-13

CD4 T-cell depletion from HIV infection leads to a global decline in anti-hepatitis C virus (HCV) envelope neutralizing antibody (nAb) response, which may play a role in accelerating liver fibrosis. An increase in anti-HCV nAb titers has been reported during antiretroviral therapy (ART) but its impact on HCV remains poorly understood. The objective of this study is to determine the effects of ART on long-term HCV evolution. We examined HCV quasispecies structure and long-term evolution in HIV/HCV coinfected patients with ART-induced CD4 T-cell recovery, and compared with patients with CD4 T-cell depletion from delayed ART. We applied a single-variant sequencing (SVS) method to construct authentic viral quasispecies and compared sequence evolution in HCV envelope, the primary target for humoral immune responses, and NS3, a target for cellular immunity, between the two cohorts. The SVS method corrected biases known to skew the proportions of viral variants, revealing authentic HCV quasispeices structures. We observed higher rates of HCV envelope sequence evolution in patients with ART-induced CD4 T-cell recovery, compared with patients with CD4 T-cell depletion from delayed ART (P = 0.03). Evolutionary rates for NS3 were considerably lower than the rates for envelope (P < 0.01), with no significant difference observed between the two groups. ART-induced CD4 T-cell recovery results in rapid sequence evolution in HCV envelope, but not in NS3. These results suggest that suppressive ART disproportionally enhances HCV-specific humoral responses more than cellular responses, resulting in rapid sequence evolution in HCV envelope but not NS3.

Long-Term Evolution of the Electrical Stimulation Levels for Cochlear Implant Patients

PubMed Central

Vargas, Jose Luis; Sainz, Manuel; Roldan, Cristina; de la Torre, Angel

2012-01-01

Objectives The stimulation levels programmed in cochlear implant systems are affected by an evolution since the first switch-on of the processor. This study was designed to evaluate the changes in stimulation levels over time and the relationship between post-implantation physiological changes and with the hearing experience provided by the continuous use of the cochlear implant. Methods Sixty-two patients, ranging in age from 4 to 68 years at the moment of implantation participated in this study. All subjects were implanted with the 12 channels COMBI 40+ cochlear implant at San Cecilio University Hospital, Granada, Spain. Hearing loss etiology and progression characteristics varied across subjects. Results The analyzed programming maps show that the stimulation levels suffer a fast evolution during the first weeks after the first switch-on of the processor. Then, the evolution becomes slower and the programming parameters tend to be stable at about 6 months after the first switch-on. The evolution of the stimulation levels implies an increment of the electrical dynamic range, which is increased from 15.4 to 20.7 dB and improves the intensity resolution. A significant increment of the sensitivity to acoustic stimuli is also observed. For some patients, we have also observed transitory changes in the electrode impedances associated to secretory otitis media, which cause important changes in the programming maps. Conclusion We have studied the long-term evolution of the stimulation levels in cochlear implant patients. Our results show the importance of systematic measurements of the electrode impedances before the revision of the programming map. This report also highlights that the evolution of the programming maps is an important factor to be considered in order to determine an adequate calendar fitting of the cochlear implant processor. PMID:23205223

Effect of changes in periodic limb movements under cpap on adherence and long term compliance in obstructive sleep apnea.

PubMed

Mwenge, Gimbada B; Rougui, Ihsan; Rodenstein, Daniel

2017-11-20

Purpose of the study Periodic leg movements (PLMs) are found in 30% of patients suffering from OSA. Under CPAP, we observed that PLMs can increase, decrease, or remain unchanged. The predictors of these changes are not well established. Objective To determine the predictors of PLMs change under CPAP and its impact on long-term adherence. Materials and method The patients were referred to the sleep laboratory for snoring or sleepiness. A single PSG night has been performed before and after CPAP treatment. Data on medication used, comorbidities and ferritin level were collected. Results A total of 160 patients were recruited with a severe OSA. About 32.5% (52/160) patients had emerging PLM i.e. that appeared after the disappearance of respiratory events. By comparing patients with emerging-PLMs to others, we found that only the blood ferritin level was significantly different between groups. Moreover, after one-year follow-up, a significant difference in adherence and long-term compliance was observed between patients without PLM at both screening and CPAP polysomnographies or emerging PLM at the second study (56%) vs. patients with baseline PLM, whether PLM remained stable or decreased under CPAP treatment (75%) (p-value 0.028). Serum ferritin and presence of diabetes mellitus predicted the evolution of PLM observed. Patients with low ferritin levels demonstrated an increase of PLM after initiation of nasal CPAP treatment. Conclusion The emergence of PLM negatively impacts long-term adherence to nasal CPAP treatment in OSA. Blood ferritin level is a predictor of the evolution of PLM under CPAP therapy.

Ecological succession in long-term experimentally evolved biofilms produces synergistic communities

PubMed Central

Poltak, Steffen R; Cooper, Vaughn S

2011-01-01

Many biofilm populations are known for their exceptional biodiversity, but the relative contributions of the forces that could produce this diversity are poorly understood. This uncertainty grows in the old, well-established communities found on many natural surfaces and in long-term, chronic infections. If the prevailing interactions among species within biofilms are positive, productivity should increase with diversity, but if they tend towards competition or antagonism, productivity should decrease. Here, we describe the parallel evolution of synergistic communities derived from a clone of Burkholderia cenocepacia during ∼1500 generations of biofilm selection. This long-term evolution was enabled by a new experimental method that selects for daily cycles of colonization, biofilm assembly and dispersal. Each of the six replicate biofilm populations underwent a common pattern of adaptive morphological diversification, in which three ecologically distinct morphotypes arose in the same order of succession and persisted. In two focal populations, mixed communities were more productive than any monoculture and each variant benefited from the mixture. These gains in output resulted from asymmetrical cross-feeding between ecotypes and the expansion and partitioning of biofilm space that constructed new niches. Therefore, even in the absence of starting genetic variation, prolonged selection for surface colonization generates a dynamic of ecological succession that enhances productivity. PMID:20811470

Ecological succession in long-term experimentally evolved biofilms produces synergistic communities.

PubMed

Poltak, Steffen R; Cooper, Vaughn S

2011-03-01

Many biofilm populations are known for their exceptional biodiversity, but the relative contributions of the forces that could produce this diversity are poorly understood. This uncertainty grows in the old, well-established communities found on many natural surfaces and in long-term, chronic infections. If the prevailing interactions among species within biofilms are positive, productivity should increase with diversity, but if they tend towards competition or antagonism, productivity should decrease. Here, we describe the parallel evolution of synergistic communities derived from a clone of Burkholderia cenocepacia during ~1500 generations of biofilm selection. This long-term evolution was enabled by a new experimental method that selects for daily cycles of colonization, biofilm assembly and dispersal. Each of the six replicate biofilm populations underwent a common pattern of adaptive morphological diversification, in which three ecologically distinct morphotypes arose in the same order of succession and persisted. In two focal populations, mixed communities were more productive than any monoculture and each variant benefited from the mixture. These gains in output resulted from asymmetrical cross-feeding between ecotypes and the expansion and partitioning of biofilm space that constructed new niches. Therefore, even in the absence of starting genetic variation, prolonged selection for surface colonization generates a dynamic of ecological succession that enhances productivity.

Impact of Isothermal Aging on Long-Term Reliability of Fine-Pitch Ball Grid Array Packages with Sn-Ag-Cu Solder Interconnects: Surface Finish Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Tae-Kyu; Ma, Hongtao; Liu, Kuo-Chuan; Xue, Jie

2010-12-01

The interaction between isothermal aging and the long-term reliability of fine-pitch ball grid array (BGA) packages with Sn-3.0Ag-0.5Cu (wt.%) solder ball interconnects was investigated. In this study, 0.4-mm fine-pitch packages with 300- μm-diameter Sn-Ag-Cu solder balls were used. Two different package substrate surface finishes were selected to compare their effects on the final solder composition, especially the effect of Ni, during thermal cycling. To study the impact on thermal performance and long-term reliability, samples were isothermally aged and thermally cycled from 0°C to 100°C with 10 min dwell time. Based on Weibull plots for each aging condition, package lifetime was reduced by approximately 44% by aging at 150°C. Aging at 100°C showed a smaller impact but similar trend. The microstructure evolution was observed during thermal aging and thermal cycling with different phase microstructure transformations between electrolytic Ni/Au and organic solderability preservative (OSP) surface finishes, focusing on the microstructure evolution near the package-side interface. Different mechanisms after aging at various conditions were observed, and their impacts on the fatigue lifetime of solder joints are discussed.

Sublethal Ciprofloxacin Treatment Leads to Rapid Development of High-Level Ciprofloxacin Resistance during Long-Term Experimental Evolution of Pseudomonas aeruginosa

PubMed Central

Jørgensen, Karin Meinike; Wassermann, Tina; Jensen, Peter Østrup; Hengzuang, Wang; Molin, Søren; Høiby, Niels

2013-01-01

The dynamics of occurrence and the genetic basis of ciprofloxacin resistance were studied in a long-term evolution experiment (940 generations) in wild-type, reference strain (PAO1) and hypermutable (PAOΔmutS and PAOMY-Mgm) P. aeruginosa populations continuously exposed to sub-MICs (1/4) of ciprofloxacin. A rapid occurrence of ciprofloxacin-resistant mutants (MIC of ≥12 μg/ml, representing 100 times the MIC of the original population) were observed in all ciprofloxacin-exposed lineages of PAOΔmutS and PAOMY-Mgm populations after 100 and 170 generations, respectively, and in one of the PAO1 lineages after 240 generations. The genetic basis of resistance was mutations in gyrA (C248T and G259T) and gyrB (C1397A). Cross-resistance to beta-lactam antibiotics was observed in the bacterial populations that evolved during exposure to sublethal concentrations of ciprofloxacin. Our study shows that mutants with high-level ciprofloxacin resistance are selected in P. aeruginosa bacterial populations exposed to sub-MICs of ciprofloxacin. This can have implications for the long-term persistence of resistant bacteria and spread of antibiotic resistance by exposure of commensal bacterial flora to low antibiotic concentrations. PMID:23774442

Quantitative characterization of the Antarctic ozone hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ito, T.; Sakoda, Y.; Matsubara, K.; Takao, T.; Akagi, K.; Watanabe, Y.; Shibata, S.; Naganuma, H.

1994-01-01

The long-term evolution of the Antarctic ozone hole is studied based on the TOMS data and the JMA data-set of stratospheric temperature in relation with the possible role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC's). The effective mass of depleted ozone in the ozone hole at its annual mature stage reached a historical maximum of 55 Mt in 1991, 4.3 times larger than in 1981. The ozone depletion rate during 30 days before the mature ozone hole does not show any appreciable long-term trend but the interannual fluctuations do, ranging from 0.169 to 0.689 Mt/day with the average of 0.419 Mt/day for the period of 1979 - 1991. The depleted ozone mass has the highest correlation with the region below 195 K on the 30 mb surface in June, whereas the ozone depletion rate correlates most strongly with that in August. The present result strongly suggests that the long-term evolution of the mature ozone hole is caused both by the interannual change of the latitudinal coverage of the early PSC's, which may control the latitude and date of initiation of ozone decrease, and by that of the spatial coverage of the mature PSC's which may control the ozone depletion rate in the Antarctic spring.

Nonlocal effects in nonisothermal hydrodynamics from the perspective of beyond-equilibrium thermodynamics.

PubMed

Hütter, Markus; Brader, Joseph M

2009-06-07

We examine the origins of nonlocality in a nonisothermal hydrodynamic formulation of a one-component fluid of particles that exhibit long-range correlations, e.g., due to a spherically symmetric, long-range interaction potential. In order to furnish the continuum modeling with physical understanding of the microscopic interactions and dynamics, we make use of systematic coarse graining from the microscopic to the continuum level. We thus arrive at a thermodynamically admissible and closed set of evolution equations for the densities of momentum, mass, and internal energy. From the consideration of an illustrative special case, the following main conclusions emerge. There are two different source terms in the momentum balance. The first is a body force, which in special circumstances can be related to the functional derivative of a nonlocal Helmholtz free energy density with respect to the mass density. The second source term is proportional to the temperature gradient, multiplied by the nonlocal entropy density. These two source terms combine into a pressure gradient only in the absence of long-range effects. In the irreversible contributions to the time evolution, the nonlocal contributions arise since the self-correlations of the stress tensor and heat flux, respectively, are nonlocal as a result of the microscopic nonlocal correlations. Finally, we point out specific points that warrant further discussions.

Systematic detection of long-term slow slip events along Hyuga-nada to central Shikoku, Nankai subduction zone, using GNSS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, R.; Obara, K.; Uchida, N.

2017-12-01

Understanding slow earthquake activity improves our knowledge of slip behavior in brittle-ductile transition zone and subduction process including megathrust earthquakes. In order to understand overall picture of slow slip activity, it is important to make a comprehensive catalog of slow slip events (SSEs). Although short-term SSEs have been detected by GNSS and tilt meter records systematically, analysis of long-term slow slip events relies on individual slip inversions. We develop an algorism to systematically detect long-term SSEs and estimate source parameters of the SSEs using GNSS data. The algorism is similar to GRiD-MT (Tsuruoka et al., 2009), which is grid-based automatic determination of moment tensor solution. Instead of moment tensor fitting to long period seismic records, we estimate parameters of a single rectangle fault to fit GNSS displacement time series. First, we make a two dimensional grid covering possible location of SSE. Second, we estimate best-fit parameters (length, width, slip, and rake) of the rectangle fault at each grid point by an iterative damped least square method. Depth, strike, and dip are fixed on the plate boundary. Ramp function with duration of 300 days is used for expressing time evolution of the fault slip. Third, a grid maximizing variance reduction is selected as a candidate of long-term SSE. We also search onset of ramp function based on the grid search. We applied the method to GNSS data in southwest Japan to detect long-term SSEs in Nankai subduction zone. With current selection criteria, we found 13 events with Mw6.2-6.9 in Hyuga-nada, Bungo channel, and central Shikoku from 1998 to 2015, which include unreported events. Key finding is along strike migrations of long-term SSEs from Hyuga-nada to Bungo channel and from Bungo channel to central Shikoku. In particular, three successive events migrating northward in Hyuga-nada preceded the 2003 Bungo channel SSE, and one event in central Shikoku followed the 2003 SSE in Bungo channel. The space-time dimensions of the possible along-strike migration are about 300km in length and 6 years in time. Systematic detection with assumptions of various durations in the time evolution of SSE may improve the picture of SSE activity and possible interaction with neighboring SSEs.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTRIC CURRENT DURING THE FORMATION AND ERUPTION OF ACTIVE-REGION FILAMENTS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jincheng; Yan, Xiaoli; Qu, Zhongquan

We present a comprehensive study of the electric current related to the formation and eruption of active region filaments in NOAA AR 11884. The vertical current on the solar surface was investigated by using vector magnetograms (VMs) observed by HMI on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. To obtain the electric current along the filament's axis, we reconstructed the magnetic fields above the photosphere by using nonlinear force-free field extrapolation based on photospheric VMs. Spatio-temporal evolutions of the vertical current on the photospheric surface and the horizontal current along the filament's axis were studied during the long-term evolution and eruption-related period,more » respectively. The results show that the vertical currents of the entire active region behaved with a decreasing trend and the magnetic fields also kept decreasing during the long-term evolution. For the eruption-related evolution, the mean transverse field strengths decreased before two eruptions and increased sharply after two eruptions in the vicinity of the polarity inversion lines underneath the filament. The related vertical current showed different behaviors in two of the eruptions. On the other hand, a very interesting feature was found: opposite horizontal currents with respect to the current of the filament's axis appeared and increased under the filament before the eruptions and disappeared after the eruptions. We suggest that these opposite currents were carried by the new flux emerging from the photosphere bottom and might be the trigger mechanism for these filament eruptions.« less

Evolution of Martian polar landscapes - Interplay of long-term variations in perennial ice cover and dust storm intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cutts, J. A.; Blasius, K. R.; Roberts, W. J.

1979-01-01

The discovery of a new type of Martian polar terrain, called undulating plain, is reported and the evolution of the plains and other areas of the Martian polar region is discussed in terms of the trapping of dust by the perennial ice cover. High-resolution Viking Orbiter 2 observations of the north polar terrain reveal perennially ice-covered surfaces with low relief, wavelike, regularly spaced, parallel ridges and troughs (undulating plains) occupying areas of the polar terrain previously thought to be flat, and associated with troughs of considerable local relief which exhibit at least partial annual melting. It is proposed that the wavelike topography of the undulating plains originates from long-term periodic variations in cyclical dust precipitation at the margin of a growing or receding perennial polar cap in response to changes in insolation. The troughs are proposed to originate from areas of steep slope in the undulating terrain which have lost their perennial ice cover and have become incapable of trapping dust. The polar landscape thus appears to record the migrations, expansions and contractions of the Martian polar cap.

Human migration to space: Alternative technological approaches for long-term adaptation to extraterrestrial environments and the implications for human evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockard, Elizabeth Song

As humans embark upon the next phase of Space exploration---establishing human outposts in low-Earth orbit, on the Moon, and on Mars---the scope of human factors must expand beyond the meager requirements for short-term missions to Space to include issues of comfort and well-being necessary for long-term durations. However, to habitate---to dwell in a place---implies more than creature comforts in order to adapt. Human factors research must also include a phenomenological perspective---an understanding of how we experience the places we live in---in order for a community to be robust and to thrive. The first phase of migration will be an especially tenuous one requiring intensive technological intervention. The modes by which those technologies are implemented will have significant bearing on the process of human adaptation: the nature of the mediation can be either one of domination, subordination, avoidance, or integration. Ultimately, adaptation is best ensured if symbiotic processes of negotiation and cooperation between subject and environment are espoused over acts of conquest or acquiescence. The adaptive mechanisms we choose to develop and employ will have wider implications for long-range human evolution. The transformations we will undergo will be influenced by both the initial decision to migrate to Space (technological), as well as the actual conditions of Space (environmental). Migration to extraterrestrial environments will be unequivocally the most profound catalyst for evolution in the history of humankind---not only for the human species itself but also for the new environments we will eventually inhabit. At the same time, we also find ourselves---via a new generation of bio-, nano-, and digital technologies---in the position to consciously and willfully direct our own evolution. Technology has always been transformative, but in the not-so-distant future, we will soon possess the capacity to radically re-invent ourselves in almost any way conceivable. The discourse on human evolution in Space must be situated in the confluence of these two variables.

Inlet Geomorphology Evolution Work Unit

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-10-30

Research Facility in Duck , North Carolina in coming years. In collaboration with the CMS work unit, an analysis of long-term inlet morphology...the expected behavior and benefits of nearshore placement. Nearshore placement studies have been documented in two journal papers, one technical

Deteriorating water clarity in shallow waters: Evidence from long term MODIS and in-situ observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Kun; Zhang, Yunlin; Zhu, Guangwei; Qin, Boqiang; Pan, Delu

2018-06-01

Water clarity (Secchi disk depth: SDD), as a proxy of water transparency, provides important information on the light availability to the water or lake ecosystem. Shallow lakes have been experienced dramatic environmental and climatic change. This study demonstrated using combination of long-term MODIS and in-situ measurements to track the dynamics of SDD with these environmental and climate changes in shallow water environments. We selected a typical turbid shallow Lake Taihu as our case study. Based on MODIS-Aqua data, an empirical model for estimating SDD was developed and validated. Subsequently, we employed the proposed model to derive the spatial and temporal SDD distribution patterns of Lake Taihu from 2003 to 2015. Combining MODIS-derived SDD time series of 2003-2015 and long-term in-situ SDD observations dated back to 1993, we elucidated SDD long-term variation trends and driving mechanism. Deteriorating water clarity from the long-term SDD observations indicated that Lake Taihu became more and more turbid and water quality was decreasing. Increasing in cyanobacterial bloom area, as a result of decreasing in wind speed and eutrophication, may partially be responsible for the decreasing trend. A predicted future decrease in the wind speed in Lake Taihu region could enhance the formation of cyanobacterial blooms and consequently lead to a further decrease in water clarity. This study suggested that coupling remote sensing monitoring and long-term in-situ observations could provide robust evidence and new insights to elucidate long-term dynamics in aquatic ecosystem evolution.

Modeling Coupled Processes in Clay Formations for Radioactive Waste Disposal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Hui-Hai; Rutqvist, Jonny; Zheng, Liange

As a result of the termination of the Yucca Mountain Project, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) has started to explore various alternative avenues for the disposition of used nuclear fuel and nuclear waste. The overall scope of the investigation includes temporary storage, transportation issues, permanent disposal, various nuclear fuel types, processing alternatives, and resulting waste streams. Although geologic disposal is not the only alternative, it is still the leading candidate for permanent disposal. The realm of geologic disposal also offers a range of geologic environments that may be considered, among those clay shale formations. Figure 1-1 presents themore » distribution of clay/shale formations within the USA. Clay rock/shale has been considered as potential host rock for geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste throughout the world, because of its low permeability, low diffusion coefficient, high retention capacity for radionuclides, and capability to self-seal fractures induced by tunnel excavation. For example, Callovo-Oxfordian argillites at the Bure site, France (Fouche et al., 2004), Toarcian argillites at the Tournemire site, France (Patriarche et al., 2004), Opalinus clay at the Mont Terri site, Switzerland (Meier et al., 2000), and Boom clay at Mol site, Belgium (Barnichon et al., 2005) have all been under intensive scientific investigations (at both field and laboratory scales) for understanding a variety of rock properties and their relations with flow and transport processes associated with geological disposal of nuclear waste. Clay/shale formations may be generally classified as indurated and plastic clays (Tsang et al., 2005). The latter (including Boom clay) is a softer material without high cohesion; its deformation is dominantly plastic. For both clay rocks, coupled thermal, hydrological, mechanical and chemical (THMC) processes are expected to have a significant impact on the long-term safety of a clay repository. For example, the excavation-damaged zone (EDZ) near repository tunnels can modify local permeability (resulting from induced fractures), potentially leading to less confinement capability (Tsang et al., 2005). Because of clay's swelling and shrinkage behavior (depending on whether the clay is in imbibition or drainage processes), fracture properties in the EDZ are quite dynamic and evolve over time as hydromechanical conditions change. To understand and model the coupled processes and their impact on repository performance is critical for the defensible performance assessment of a clay repository. Within the Natural Barrier System (NBS) group of the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) Campaign at DOE's Office of Nuclear Energy, LBNL's research activities have focused on understanding and modeling such coupled processes. LBNL provided a report in this April on literature survey of studies on coupled processes in clay repositories and identification of technical issues and knowledge gaps (Tsang et al., 2010). This report will document other LBNL research activities within the natural system work package, including the development of constitutive relationships for elastic deformation of clay rock (Section 2), a THM modeling study (Section 3) and a THC modeling study (Section 4). The purpose of the THM and THC modeling studies is to demonstrate the current modeling capabilities in dealing with coupled processes in a potential clay repository. In Section 5, we discuss potential future R&D work based on the identified knowledge gaps. The linkage between these activities and related FEPs is presented in Section 6.« less

Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations. II. Testing the surface flux transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtanen, I. O. I.; Virtanen, I. I.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Yeates, A.; Mursula, K.

2017-07-01

Aims: We aim to use the surface flux transport model to simulate the long-term evolution of the photospheric magnetic field from historical observations. In this work we study the accuracy of the model and its sensitivity to uncertainties in its main parameters and the input data. Methods: We tested the model by running simulations with different values of meridional circulation and supergranular diffusion parameters, and studied how the flux distribution inside active regions and the initial magnetic field affected the simulation. We compared the results to assess how sensitive the simulation is to uncertainties in meridional circulation speed, supergranular diffusion, and input data. We also compared the simulated magnetic field with observations. Results: We find that there is generally good agreement between simulations and observations. Although the model is not capable of replicating fine details of the magnetic field, the long-term evolution of the polar field is very similar in simulations and observations. Simulations typically yield a smoother evolution of polar fields than observations, which often include artificial variations due to observational limitations. We also find that the simulated field is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in model parameters or the input data. Due to the decay term included in the model the effects of the uncertainties are somewhat minor or temporary, lasting typically one solar cycle.

SSBUV and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 Solar Variability Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLand, Matthew T.; Cebula, Richard P.; Hilsenrath, Ernest

1998-01-01

The Shuttle SBUV (SSBUV) and NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments measured solar spectral UV irradiance during the maximum and declining phase of solar cycle 22. The SSB UV data accurately represent the absolute solar UV irradiance between 200-405 nm, and also show the long-term variations during eight flights between October 1989 and January 1996. These data have been used to correct long-term sensitivity changes in the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 data, which provide a near-daily record of solar UV variations over the 170-400 nm region between December 1988 and October 1994. The NOAA-11 data demonstrate the evolution of short-term solar UV activity during solar cycle 22.

Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours.

PubMed

Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

2014-02-01

The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial.

Anthropogenic selection enhances cancer evolution in Tasmanian devil tumours

PubMed Central

Ujvari, Beata; Pearse, Anne-Maree; Swift, Kate; Hodson, Pamela; Hua, Bobby; Pyecroft, Stephen; Taylor, Robyn; Hamede, Rodrigo; Jones, Menna; Belov, Katherine; Madsen, Thomas

2014-01-01

The Tasmanian Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD) provides a unique opportunity to elucidate the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic selection on cancer evolution. Since first observed in 1996, this transmissible cancer has caused local population declines by >90%. So far, four chromosomal DFTD variants (strains) have been described and karyotypic analyses of 253 tumours showed higher levels of tetraploidy in the oldest strain. We propose that increased ploidy in the oldest strain may have evolved in response to effects of genomic decay observed in asexually reproducing organisms. In this study, we focus on the evolutionary response of DFTD to a disease suppression trial. Tumours collected from devils subjected to the removal programme showed accelerated temporal evolution of tetraploidy compared with tumours from other populations where no increase in tetraploid tumours were observed. As ploidy significantly reduces tumour growth rate, we suggest that the disease suppression trial resulted in selection favouring slower growing tumours mediated by an increased level of tetraploidy. Our study reveals that DFTD has the capacity to rapidly respond to novel selective regimes and that disease eradication may result in novel tumour adaptations, which may further imperil the long-term survival of the world's largest carnivorous marsupial. PMID:24567746

MAGNETIC FLUX TRANSPORT AND THE LONG-TERM EVOLUTION OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ugarte-Urra, Ignacio; Upton, Lisa; Warren, Harry P.

2015-12-20

With multiple vantage points around the Sun, Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) and Solar Dynamics Observatory imaging observations provide a unique opportunity to view the solar surface continuously. We use He ii 304 Å data from these observatories to isolate and track ten active regions and study their long-term evolution. We find that active regions typically follow a standard pattern of emergence over several days followed by a slower decay that is proportional in time to the peak intensity in the region. Since STEREO does not make direct observations of the magnetic field, we employ a flux-luminosity relationship to infermore » the total unsigned magnetic flux evolution. To investigate this magnetic flux decay over several rotations we use a surface flux transport model, the Advective Flux Transport model, that simulates convective flows using a time-varying velocity field and find that the model provides realistic predictions when information about the active region's magnetic field strength and distribution at peak flux is available. Finally, we illustrate how 304 Å images can be used as a proxy for magnetic flux measurements when magnetic field data is not accessible.« less

Short and long term evolution of deep giant submarine dunes in continental shelf environment: the example of the 'Banc du Four' (Western Brittany, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franzetti, M.; Le Roy, P.; Garlan, T.; Delacourt, C.; Thibaud, R.; Cancouet, R.; Graindorge, D.; Prunier, C.; Sukhovich, A.; Deschamps, A.

2013-12-01

The deep sandwave dynamics is still in debate. Understanding the migration processes and the resulting evolution of their 3D internal architecture are scientifically challenging. To address these questions we realized two swath bathymetry surveys complemented with seismic reflection across the large sandwaves field named 'Banc du Four'. It is located offshore the Western Brittany and is composed of more 500 dunes. Some of the dunes' wavelengths and heights exceed 1000m and 30m respectively placing them among the largest dunes ever described. Equilibrium laws obtained from our morphological analysis are not completely in agreement with those described in previous studies of similar structures in shallow waters. Relatively high migration velocities on deep continental shelves (from 3 to 20m.yr-1) attest of their still present dynamical equilibrium. Internal-external morphological and kinematical analyses show the existence of two different dynamic regimes. Interpretation of the seismic reflection data allowed reconstructing long-term evolution of the sandbank and the establishment of progressive connections between stepped submarine channels and tidal dynamics during the last sea-level rise.

Extended Kalman Filter framework for forecasting shoreline evolution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Joseph; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2012-01-01

A shoreline change model incorporating both long- and short-term evolution is integrated into a data assimilation framework that uses sparse observations to generate an updated forecast of shoreline position and to estimate unobserved geophysical variables and model parameters. Application of the assimilation algorithm provides quantitative statistical estimates of combined model-data forecast uncertainty which is crucial for developing hazard vulnerability assessments, evaluation of prediction skill, and identifying future data collection needs. Significant attention is given to the estimation of four non-observable parameter values and separating two scales of shoreline evolution using only one observable morphological quantity (i.e. shoreline position).

Science synergism study for EOS on evolution of desert surfaces

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farr, Tom G.

1987-01-01

The effectiveness of EOS data as a basis for the study of desert surfaces' evolution is presently evaluated for both long and short term geomorphic evolution. Attention is given to the usefulness of such sensor systems planned for EOS as MODIS for regional vegetation distribution/variability monitoring, HIRIS for visible-near IR observations, TIMS for lithological identification, HMMR and SSMI for soil characteristics, LASA for atmospheric profiles, SAR for surface roughness, ALT for two-dimensional topography, ACR for the calibration of imaging sensors, and ERBE for climate modeling and regional surface albedo variation determinations.

Influence of the dynamic Stark effect on long-term frequency stability of a self-oscillating magnetometer with laser-pumped alkali atoms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baranov, A. A.; Ermak, S. V.; Kulachenkov, N. K.; Petrenko, M. V.; Sagitov, E. A.; Semenov, V. V.

2017-11-01

This paper presents the results of investigation Stark shift effect influence on the long-term stability of a dual scheme of quantum magnetometers. Such scheme allows suppressing Stark shift components when a certain pumping light polarization is applied. As a result, long-term stability of a quantum sensor increases. However, when low-frequency (LF) and microwave fields are attached to a single vapor cell a coherence circulation in hyperfine structure of alkali atoms takes place. Physical origin of this effect is associated with the so called “dressed” atom theory, when atom is “dressed” by LF field. It yields in multiphoton absorption and resonance frequency shift. First estimates for this shift based on density matrix evolution formalism are provided in the paper.

Variability of ribosomal RNA genes in Rauwolfia species: parallelism between tissue culture-induced rearrangements and interspecies polymorphism.

PubMed

Andreev, I O; Spiridonova, K V; Solovyan, V T; Kunakh, V A

2005-01-01

An analysis of 18S-25S and 5S rRNA genes in intact plants and cultured tissues of some Rauwolfia species was performed to compare these sequences variability occurred as a result of the species evolution in nature and that induced by tissue culture. The restriction fragment length polymorphism of 18S-25S and 5S rDNA was found both in intact plants of various Rauwolfia species and in long-term Rauwolfia serpentina tissue cultures. In addition, changes in the amount of 18S-25S rRNA genes were observed in long-term R. serpentina tissue cultures. The results demonstrate that rDNA variability observed in intact plants as well as in long-term cultures is attributed to differences in the same regions of ribosomal RNA genes.

Global issues of genetic diversity.

PubMed

Vida, G

1994-01-01

Genetic diversity within species is highly significant during their adaptation to environmental changes and, consequently, for their long-term survival. The genetic variability of species is also the basis for the evolution of higher levels of biodiversity, the evolution of species, and it might be an indispensible prerequisite for the functioning of our biosphere. Studies which promote understanding of the maintenance and the functional aspects of biodiversity at any level are therefore essential for the future welfare of mankind.

Recombination and phenotype evolution dynamics of Helicobacter pylori in colonized hosts.

PubMed

Shafiee, Ahmad; Amini, Massoud; Emamirad, Hassan; Abadi, Amin Talebi Bezmin

2016-07-01

The ample genetic diversity and variability of Helicobater pylori, and therefore its phenotypic evolution, relate not only to frequent mutation and selection but also to intra-specific recombination. Webb and Blaser applied a mathematical model to distinguish the role of selection and mutation for Lewis antigen phenotype evolution during long-term gastric colonization in infected animal hosts (mice and gerbils). To investigate the role of recombination in Lewis antigen phenotype evolution, we have developed a prior population dynamic by adding recombination term to the model. We simulate and interpret the new model simulation's results with a comparative analysis of biological aspects. The main conclusions are as follows: (i) the models and consequently the hosts with higher recombination rate require a longer time for stabilization; and (ii) recombination and mutation have opposite effects on the size of H. pylori populations with phenotypes in the range of the most-fit ones (i.e. those that have a selective advantage) due to natural selection, although both can increase phenotypic diversity.

Short- versus long-term responses to changing CO2 in a coastal dinoflagellate bloom: implications for interspecific competitive interactions and community structure.

PubMed

Tatters, Avery O; Schnetzer, Astrid; Fu, Feixue; Lie, Alle Y A; Caron, David A; Hutchins, David A

2013-07-01

Increasing pCO2 (partial pressure of CO2 ) in an "acidified" ocean will affect phytoplankton community structure, but manipulation experiments with assemblages briefly acclimated to simulated future conditions may not accurately predict the long-term evolutionary shifts that could affect inter-specific competitive success. We assessed community structure changes in a natural mixed dinoflagellate bloom incubated at three pCO2 levels (230, 433, and 765 ppm) in a short-term experiment (2 weeks). The four dominant species were then isolated from each treatment into clonal cultures, and maintained at all three pCO2 levels for approximately 1 year. Periodically (4, 8, and 12 months), these pCO2 -conditioned clones were recombined into artificial communities, and allowed to compete at their conditioning pCO2 level or at higher and lower levels. The dominant species in these artificial communities of CO2 -conditioned clones differed from those in the original short-term experiment, but individual species relative abundance trends across pCO2 treatments were often similar. Specific growth rates showed no strong evidence for fitness increases attributable to conditioning pCO2 level. Although pCO2 significantly structured our experimental communities, conditioning time and biotic interactions like mixotrophy also had major roles in determining competitive outcomes. New methods of carrying out extended mixed species experiments are needed to accurately predict future long-term phytoplankton community responses to changing pCO2 . © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Thermal Evolution of the Earth from a Plate Tectonics Point of View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grigne, C.; Combes, M.; Le Yaouanq, S.; Husson, L.; Conrad, C. P.; Tisseau, C.

2011-12-01

Earth's thermal history is classically studied using scaling laws that link the surface heat loss to the temperature and viscosity of the convecting mantle. When such a parameterization is used in the global heat budget of the Earth to integrate the mantle temperature backwards in time, a runaway increase of temperature is obtained, leading to the so-called "thermal catastrophe". We propose a new approach that does not rely on convective scaling laws but instead considers the dynamics of plate tectonics, including temperature-dependent surface processes. We use a multi-agent system to simulate time-dependent plate tectonics in a 2D cylindrical geometry with evolutive plate boundaries. Plate velocities are computed using local force balance and explicit parameterizations for plate boundary processes such as trench migration, subduction initiation, continental breakup and plate suturing. The number of plates is not imposed but emerges naturally. At a given time step, heat flux is integrated from the seafloor age distribution and a global heat budget is used to compute the evolution of mantle temperature. This approach has a very low computational cost and allows us to study the effect of a wide range of input parameters on the long-term thermal evolution of the system. For Earth-like parameters, an average cooling rate of 60-70K per billion years is obtained, which is consistent with petrological and rheological constraints. Two time scales arise in the evolution of the heat flux: a linear long-term decrease and high-amplitude short-term fluctuations due to tectonic rearrangements. We show that the viscosity of the mantle is not a key parameter in the thermal evolution of the system and that no thermal catastrophe occurs when considering tectonic processes. The cooling rate of the Earth depends mainly on its ability to replace old insulating seafloor by young thin oceanic lithosphere. Therefore, the main controlling factors are parameters such as the resistance of continental lithosphere to breakup or the critical age for subduction initiation. We infer that simple convective considerations alone cannot account for the complex nature of mantle heat loss and that tectonic processes dictate the thermal evolution of the Earth.

Critical zone evolution and the origins of organised complexity in watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harman, C.; Troch, P. A.; Pelletier, J.; Rasmussen, C.; Chorover, J.

2012-04-01

The capacity of the landscape to store and transmit water is the result of a historical trajectory of landscape, soil and vegetation development, much of which is driven by hydrology itself. Progress in geomorphology and pedology has produced models of surface and sub-surface evolution in soil-mantled uplands. These dissected, denuding modeled landscapes are emblematic of the kinds of dissipative self-organized flow structures whose hydrologic organization may also be understood by low-dimensional hydrologic models. They offer an exciting starting-point for examining the mapping between the long-term controls on landscape evolution and the high-frequency hydrologic dynamics. Here we build on recent theoretical developments in geomorphology and pedology to try to understand how the relative rates of erosion, sediment transport and soil development in a landscape determine catchment storage capacity and the relative dominance of runoff process, flow pathways and storage-discharge relationships. We do so by using a combination of landscape evolution models, hydrologic process models and data from a variety of sources, including the University of Arizona Critical Zone Observatory. A challenge to linking the landscape evolution and hydrologic model representations is the vast differences in the timescales implicit in the process representations. Furthermore the vast array of processes involved makes parameterization of such models an enormous challenge. The best data-constrained geomorphic transport and soil development laws only represent hydrologic processes implicitly, through the transport and weathering rate parameters. In this work we propose to avoid this problem by identifying the relationship between the landscape and soil evolution parameters and macroscopic climate and geological controls. These macroscopic controls (such as the aridity index) have two roles: 1) they express the water and energy constraints on the long-term evolution of the landscape system, and 2) they bound the range of plausible short-term hydroclimatic regimes that may drive a particular landscape's hydrologic dynamics. To ensure that the hydrologic dynamics implicit in the evolutionary parameters are compatible with the dynamics observed in the hydrologic modeling, a set of consistency checks based on flow process dominance are developed.

Comparing long-term projections of the space debris environment to real world data - Looking back to 1990

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Radtke, Jonas; Stoll, Enrico

2016-10-01

Long-term projections of the space debris environment are commonly used to assess the trends within different scenarios for the assumed future development of spacefaring. General scenarios investigated include business-as-usual cases in which spaceflight is performed as today and mitigation scenarios, assuming the implementation of Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines at different advances or the effectiveness of more drastic measures, such as active debris removal. One problem that always goes along with the projection of a system's behaviour in the future is that affecting parameters, such as the launch rate, are unpredictable. It is common to look backwards and re-model the past in other fields of research. This is a rather difficult task for spaceflight as it is still quite young, and furthermore mostly influenced by drastic politic changes, as the break-down of the Soviet Union in the end of the 1980s. Furthermore, one major driver of the evolution of the number of on-orbit objects turn out to be collisions between objects. As of today, these collisions are, fortunately, very rare and therefore, a real-world-data modelling approach is difficult. Nevertheless, since the end of the cold war more than 20 years of a comparably stable evolution of spaceflight activities have passed. For this study, this period is used in a comparison between the real evolution of the space debris environment and that one projected using the Institute of Space System's in-house tool for long-term assessment LUCA (Long-Term Utility for Collision Analysis). Four different scenarios are investigated in this comparison; all of them have the common starting point of using an initial population for 1st May 1989. The first scenario, which serves as reference, is simply taken from MASTER-2009. All launch and mission related objects from the Two Line Elements (TLE) catalogue and other available sources are included. All events such as explosion and collision events have been re-modelled as close to the reality as possible and included in the corresponding population. They furthermore have been correlated with TLE catalogue objects. As the latest available validated population snapshot for MASTER is May 2009, this epoch is chosen as endpoint for the simulations. The second scenario uses the knowledge of the past 25 years to perform a Monte-Carlo simulation of the evolution of the space debris environment. Necessary input parameters such as explosions per year, launch rates, and the evolution of the solar cycle are taken from their real evolutions. The third scenario goes a step further by only extracting mean numbers and trends from inputs such as launch and explosion rates and applying them. The final and fourth scenario aims to disregarding all knowledge of the time frame under investigation and inputs are determined based on data available in 1989 only. Results are compared to the reference scenario of the space debris environment.

Persistent recovery of normal left ventricular function and dimension in idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy during long‐term follow‐up: does real healing exist?

PubMed

Merlo, Marco; Stolfo, Davide; Anzini, Marco; Negri, Francesco; Pinamonti, Bruno; Barbati, Giulia; Ramani, Federica; Lenarda, Andrea Di; Sinagra, Gianfranco

2015-01-13

An important number of patients with idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy have dramatically improved left ventricular function with optimal treatment; however, little is known about the evolution and long-term outcome of this subgroup, which shows apparent healing. This study assesses whether real healing actually exists in dilated cardiomyopathy. Persistent apparent healing was evaluated among 408 patients with dilated cardiomyopathy receiving tailored medical treatment and followed over the very long-term. Persistent apparent healing was defined as left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% and indexed left ventricular end-diastolic diameter ≤33 mm/m(2) at both mid-term (19±4 months) and long-term (103±9 months) follow-up. At mid-term, 63 of 408 patients (15%) were apparently healed; 38 (60%; 9%of the whole population) showed persistent apparent healing at long-term evaluation. No predictors of persistent apparent healing were found. Patients with persistent apparent healing showed better heart transplant–free survival at very long-term follow-up (95% versus 71%; P=0.014) compared with nonpersistently normalized patients. Nevertheless, in the very longterm, 37% of this subgroup experienced deterioration of left ventricular systolic function, and 5% died or had heart transplantation. Persistent long-term apparent healing was evident in a remarkable proportion of dilated cardiomyopathy patients receiving optimal medical treatment and was associated with stable normalization of main clinical and laboratory features. This condition can be characterized by a decline of left ventricular function over the very long term, highlighting the relevance of serial nd individualized follow-up in all patients with dilated cardiomyopathy, especially considering the absence of predictors for longterm apparent healing.

Yardang evolution from maturity to demise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.

2015-07-01

Yardangs are enigmatic wind-parallel ridges sculpted by aeolian processes that are found extensively in arid environments on Earth and Mars. No general theory exists to explain the long-term evolution of yardangs, curtailing modeling of landscape evolution and dynamics of suspended sediment release. We present a hypothesis of yardang evolution using relative rates of sediment flux, interyardang corridor downcutting, yardang denudation, substrate erodibility, and substrate clast content. To develop and sustain yardangs, corridor downcutting must exceed yardang vertical denudation and deflation. However, erosion of substrate yields considerable quantities of sediment that shelters corridors, slowing downcutting. We model the evolution of yardangs through various combinations of rates and substrate compositions, demonstrating the life span, suspended sediment release, and resulting landscape evolution. We find that yardangs have a distinct and predictable evolution, with inevitable demise and unexpectedly dynamic and autogenic erosion rates driven by subtle differences in substrate clast composition.

The orbital evolution of NEA 30825 1900 TG1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timoshkova, E. I.

2008-02-01

The orbital evolution of the near-Earth asteroid (NEA) 30825 1990 TG1 has been studied by numerical integration of the equations of its motion over the 100 000-year time interval with allowance for perturbations from eight major planets and Pluto, and the variations in its osculating orbit over this time interval were determined. The numerical integrations were performed using two methods: the Bulirsch-Stoer method and the Everhart method. The comparative analysis of the two resulting orbital evolutions of motion is presented for the time interval examined. The evolution of the asteroid motion is qualitatively the same for both variants, but the rate of evolution of the orbital elements is different. Our research confirms the known fact that the application of different integrators to the study of the long-term evolution of the NEA orbit may lead to different evolution tracks.

Practical aspects of protein co-evolution.

PubMed

Ochoa, David; Pazos, Florencio

2014-01-01

Co-evolution is a fundamental aspect of Evolutionary Theory. At the molecular level, co-evolutionary linkages between protein families have been used as indicators of protein interactions and functional relationships from long ago. Due to the complexity of the problem and the amount of genomic data required for these approaches to achieve good performances, it took a relatively long time from the appearance of the first ideas and concepts to the quotidian application of these approaches and their incorporation to the standard toolboxes of bioinformaticians and molecular biologists. Today, these methodologies are mature (both in terms of performance and usability/implementation), and the genomic information that feeds them large enough to allow their general application. This review tries to summarize the current landscape of co-evolution-based methodologies, with a strong emphasis on describing interesting cases where their application to important biological systems, alone or in combination with other computational and experimental approaches, allowed getting new insight into these.

Practical aspects of protein co-evolution

PubMed Central

Ochoa, David; Pazos, Florencio

2014-01-01

Co-evolution is a fundamental aspect of Evolutionary Theory. At the molecular level, co-evolutionary linkages between protein families have been used as indicators of protein interactions and functional relationships from long ago. Due to the complexity of the problem and the amount of genomic data required for these approaches to achieve good performances, it took a relatively long time from the appearance of the first ideas and concepts to the quotidian application of these approaches and their incorporation to the standard toolboxes of bioinformaticians and molecular biologists. Today, these methodologies are mature (both in terms of performance and usability/implementation), and the genomic information that feeds them large enough to allow their general application. This review tries to summarize the current landscape of co-evolution-based methodologies, with a strong emphasis on describing interesting cases where their application to important biological systems, alone or in combination with other computational and experimental approaches, allowed getting new insight into these. PMID:25364721

Theory connecting nonlocal sediment transport, earth surface roughness, and the Sadler effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schumer, Rina; Taloni, Alessandro; Furbish, David Jon

2017-03-01

Earth surface evolution, like many natural phenomena typified by fluctuations on a wide range of scales and deterministic smoothing, results in a statistically rough surface. We present theory demonstrating that scaling exponents of topographic and stratigraphic statistics arise from long-time averaging of noisy surface evolution rather than specific landscape evolution processes. This is demonstrated through use of "elastic" Langevin equations that generically describe disturbance from a flat earth surface using a noise term that is smoothed deterministically via sediment transport. When smoothing due to transport is a local process, the geologic record self organizes such that a specific Sadler effect and topographic power spectral density (PSD) emerge. Variations in PSD slope reflect the presence or absence and character of nonlocality of sediment transport. The range of observed stratigraphic Sadler slopes captures the same smoothing feature combined with the presence of long-range spatial correlation in topographic disturbance.

Long-term evolution of a small ice cap in Greenland: a dynamic perspective from numerical flow modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vieli, Andreas; Lane, Timothy; Adamson, Kathryn

2017-04-01

Small ice caps at the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet are often close to the limit of existence and are therefore expected to respond more sensitively to climate change than the land-margin of the neighboring ice sheet. However, their past evolution and dynamic behavior is poorly understood and their use as climate indicators therefore remains so far limited. We here aim to provide a long-term dynamic reconstruction of Lyngmarksbraeen, a small (32km2) ice cap on Disko Island in West Greenland, with a particular focus on the little ice age (LIA, since 1200AD). We use a 2-dim. time-dependent numerical flow model (SIA) and a PDD-mass balance model in combination with historical observations, geomorphological mapping and exposure dating to simulate its long-term evolution and dynamic behaviour. We specifically focus on retreat since the LIA, which is well constrained by geomorphological evidence and historical maps and length records of several small outlet glaciers and data from local and regional climate stations (Qeqertarssuaq and Ilulisat). We also explore aspects related to flow dynamics and find that the dynamic state of this ice cap is, at any time, far from being balanced and is highly sensitive to the surface elevation mass balance feedback and results in an asynchronous response of the different outlets and hysteresis-type behaviour. The modelling is able to reproduce the observed LIA-extent and the almost continuous retreat over the last hundred years well. It further indicates that the ice cap was already dynamically inert since the 1960s. Today, the ice cap has lost almost its entire accumulation area and even without any further warming in the future, the ice cap is expected to vanish within a couple of decades.

The effects of growth and collapse on the magmatic system below Mt Taranaki, New Zealand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Procter, Jonathan; Marcroft, Grace; Zellmer, Georg; Zernack, Anke

2017-04-01

Mt. Taranaki exhibits one of the best long-term records of volcanic growth and destruction of any volcano worldwide, making it ideal for understanding the long-term effects of changing lithostatic pressure, or loading and unloading, on the magma chamber and magma supply. The ring-plain around Mt. Taranaki houses volcaniclastic deposits that provide a near continuous record of the evolution of the volcano, yet these records have remained relatively unexploited when investigating the interrelated cyclical phases of volcano collapse and growth, the geochemical evolution of the centre, and the consequent time-varying hazard potential. In this study, we systematically sampled pumice-rich tephra and pumice-rich mass flow deposits that were stratigraphically immediately before and after the 24,801 ± 268 years BP Pungarehu Formation debris avalanche ( 7.5 km3). Crystals (clinopyroxene and plagioclase) were characterised in detail. Mg and Fe zoning across selected crystals from samples pre-and post-debris avalanche were found to have completely equilibrated, yet zoning patterns in Al remained intact and showed major differences in their formation, allowing for the calculation of diffusion rates. These have enabled the determination of maximum residence times (depths and pressure regimes) of the magma system. It is intended that this technique will be applied across the stratigraphic record, which contains 14 collapse events. This will provide insights into crustal magma transport and residence times, and the propagation of fissures and the buoyancy of the magma pre- and post-collapse, in order to characterise the evolution of the centre and quantify the long-term relationship between magmatic rise and volcano growth and destruction.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morscher, Meagan; Pattabiraman, Bharath; Rodriguez, Carl

Our current understanding of the stellar initial mass function and massive star evolution suggests that young globular clusters (GCs) may have formed hundreds to thousands of stellar-mass black holes (BHs), the remnants of stars with initial masses from ∼20-100 M {sub ☉}. Birth kicks from supernova explosions may eject some BHs from their birth clusters, but most should be retained. Using a Monte Carlo method we investigate the long-term dynamical evolution of GCs containing large numbers of stellar BHs. We describe numerical results for 42 models, covering a broad range of realistic initial conditions, including up to 1.6 × 10{supmore » 6} stars. In almost all models we find that significant numbers of BHs (up to ∼10{sup 3}) are retained all the way to the present. This is in contrast to previous theoretical expectations that most BHs should be ejected dynamically within a few gigayears The main reason for this difference is that core collapse driven by BHs (through the Spitzer {sup m}ass segregation instability{sup )} is easily reverted through three-body processes, and involves only a small number of the most massive BHs, while lower-mass BHs remain well-mixed with ordinary stars far from the central cusp. Thus the rapid segregation of stellar BHs does not lead to a long-term physical separation of most BHs into a dynamically decoupled inner core, as often assumed previously. Combined with the recent detections of several BH X-ray binary candidates in Galactic GCs, our results suggest that stellar BHs could still be present in large numbers in many GCs today, and that they may play a significant role in shaping the long-term dynamical evolution and the present-day dynamical structure of many clusters.« less

Simulation of the initial stage of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption using the coupled meteorology-chemistry WRF-Chem model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stenchikov, Georgiy; Ukhov, Alexander; Ahmadov, Ravan

2017-04-01

Big explosive volcanic eruptions emit in the atmosphere, among other species, millions of tons of SO2, water vapor, and solid particles, volcanic ash. SO2 is oxidized to produce sulfate aerosols that are transported globally and cause widespread long-term climate effects. Ash particles deposit within a few months, as they are relatively large, and, it is believed, do not produce long-term climate effects. However, at the initial stage of the evolution of a volcanic cloud SO2, volcanic water, sulfate, and ash coexist and their chemical, microphysical, and radiation interaction might be important to precondition the long-term formation and transport of a volcanic aerosol cloud. To better understand this initial stage of a volcanic impact we simulate the aerosol plume from the largest 20th-century eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991 using the specifically modified Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem). Ash, SO2, and sulfate emission, transport, dispersion, chemical transformation and deposition are calculated using the GOCART aerosol and chemistry scheme. Effect of volcanic aerosol interaction with radiation (short and long wave) is assessed using RRTMG radiative transfer model. The simulations are conducted for two months in the equatorial belt (45S, 45N) with the periodic boundary conditions in longitude and imposing aerosols and chemicals from the MERRA2, and meteorology from the ERA-Interim along the belt's borders in latitude. The simulations reveal the vertical separation of the aerosol plume due to aerosol (both ash and sulfate) gravitational settling and a complex dynamic evolution of the multi-layer cloud with sharp gradients of radiative heating within the plume that affects the cloud dispersion and the equilibrium altitude that are crucially important for the further large-scale plume evolution.

Cascade Defect Evolution Processes: Comparison of Atomistic Methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Haixuan; Stoller, Roger E; Osetskiy, Yury N

2013-11-01

Determining the defect evolution beyond the molecular dynamics (MD) time scale is critical in bridging the gap between atomistic simulations and experiments. The recently developed self-evolving atomistic kinetic Monte Carlo (SEAKMC) method provides new opportunities to simulate long-term defect evolution with MD-like fidelity. In this study, SEAKMC is applied to investigate the cascade defect evolution in bcc iron. First, the evolution of a vacancy rich region is simulated and compared with results obtained using autonomous basin climbing (ABC) +KMC and kinetic activation-relaxation technique (kART) simulations. Previously, it is found the results from kART are orders of magnitude faster than ABC+KMC.more » The results obtained from SEAKMC are similar to kART but the time predicted is about one order of magnitude faster than kART. The fidelity of SEAKMC is confirmed by statistically relevant MD simulations at multiple higher temperatures, which proves that the saddle point sampling is close to complete in SEAKMC. The second is the irradiation-induced formation of C15 Laves phase nano-size defect clusters. In contrast to previous studies, which claim the defects can grow by capturing self-interstitials, we found these highly stable clusters can transform to <111> glissile configuration on a much longer time scale. Finally, cascade-annealing simulations using SEAKMC is compared with traditional object KMC (OKMC) method. SEAKMC predicts substantially fewer surviving defects compared with OKMC. The possible origin of this difference is discussed and a possible way to improve the accuracy of OKMC based on SEAKMC results is outlined. These studies demonstrate the atomistic fidelity of SEAKMC in comparison with other on-the-fly KMC methods and provide new information on long-term defect evolution in iron.« less

Evolution, epigenetics and cooperation.

PubMed

Bateson, Patrick

2014-04-01

Explanations for biological evolution in terms of changes in gene frequencies refer to outcomes rather than process. Integrating epigenetic studies with older evolutionary theories has drawn attention to the ways in which evolution occurs. Adaptation at the level of the gene is givingway to adaptation at the level of the organism and higher-order assemblages of organisms. These ideas impact on the theories of how cooperation might have evolved. Two of the theories, i.e. that cooperating individuals are genetically related or that they cooperate for self-interested reasons, have been accepted for a long time. The idea that adaptation takes place at the level of groups is much more controversial. However, bringing together studies of development with those of evolution is taking away much of the heat in the debate about the evolution of group behaviour.

Calculating the spatio-temporal variability of bedrock exposure on seasonal hydrograph timescales as a prerequisite to modeling bedrock river evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurst, A. A.; Anderson, R. S.; Tucker, G. E.

2017-12-01

Erosion of bedrock river channels exerts significant control on landscape evolution because it communicates climatic and tectonic signals across a landscape by setting the lower erosional boundaries for hillslopes. Hillslope erosion delivers sediment to the channels, which then either store or transport the sediment. At times of high storage, access to the bedrock floor of the channel is limited, inhibiting bedrock erosion. This affects the timescale of channel response to imposed base-level lowering, which in turn affects hillslope erosion. Because occasional exposure of the bedrock bed is a minimum prerequisite for bedrock erosion, we seek to understand the evolution of sediment cover, or scour history, with sufficient resolution to answer when and where the bed is exposed. The scour history at a site is governed by grain size, bed and channel morphology, sediment concentration in the water, and seasonal flow conditions (hydrograph). The transient nature of bedrock exposure during high-flow events implies that short-term sediment cover dynamics are important for predicting long-term bedrock incision rates. Models of channel profile evolution, or of landscape evolution, generally ignore evolution of sediment cover on the hydrograph timescale. To develop insight into the necessary and sufficient conditions for bedrock exposure followed by reburial, we have developed a 1-D model of the evolution of alluvial cover thickness in a long channel profile in response to a seasonal hydrograph. This model tracks erosion, deposition, and the concentration of sediment in the water column separately, and generates histories of scour and fill over the course of the hydrograph. We compare the model's predictions with net-scour measurements in tributaries of the Grand Canyon and with scour-chain and accelerometer measurements in the Cedar River, Washington. By addressing alluvial scour on short timescales, we acknowledge the processes required to allow bedrock incision and landscape evolution over longer timescales.

Secular orbital evolution of Jupiter family comets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickman, H.; Gabryszewski, R.; Wajer, P.; Wiśniowski, T.; Wójcikowski, K.; Szutowicz, S.; Valsecchi, G. B.; Morbidelli, A.

2017-02-01

Context. The issue of the long term dynamics of Jupiter family comets (JFCs) involves uncertain assumptions about the physical evolution and lifetimes of these comets. Contrary to what is often assumed, real effects of secular dynamics cannot be excluded and therefore merit investigation. Aims: We use a random sample of late heavy bombardment cometary projectiles to study the long-term dynamics of JFCs by a Monte Carlo approach. In a steady-state picture of the Jupiter family, we investigate the orbital distribution of JFCs, including rarely visited domains like retrograde orbits or orbits within the outer parts of the asteroid main belt. Methods: We integrate 100 000 objects over a maximum of 100 000 orbital revolutions including the Sun, a comet, and four giant planets. Considering the steady-state number of JFCs to be proportional to the total time spent in the respective orbital domain, we derive the capture rate based on observed JFCs with small perihelia and large nuclei. We consider a purely dynamical model and one where the nuclei are eroded by ice sublimation. Results: The JFC inclination distribution is incompatible with our erosional model. This may imply that a new type of comet evolution model is necessary. Considering that comets may live for a long time, we show that JFCs can evolve into retrograde orbits as well as asteroidal orbits in the outer main belt or Cybele regions. The steady-state capture rate into the Jupiter family is consistent with 1 × 109 scattered disk objects with diameters D > 2 km. Conclusions: Our excited scattered disk makes it difficult to explain the JFC inclination distribution, unless the physical evolution of JFCs is more intricate than assumed in standard, erosional models. Independent of this, the population size of the Jupiter family is consistent with a relatively low-mass scattered disk.

Aridity and hominin environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blumenthal, Scott A.; Levin, Naomi E.; Brown, Francis H.; Brugal, Jean-Philip; Chritz, Kendra L.; Harris, John M.; Jehle, Glynis E.; Cerling, Thure E.

2017-07-01

Aridification is often considered a major driver of long-term ecological change and hominin evolution in eastern Africa during the Plio-Pleistocene; however, this hypothesis remains inadequately tested owing to difficulties in reconstructing terrestrial paleoclimate. We present a revised aridity index for quantifying water deficit (WD) in terrestrial environments using tooth enamel δ18O values, and use this approach to address paleoaridity over the past 4.4 million years in eastern Africa. We find no long-term trend in WD, consistent with other terrestrial climate indicators in the Omo-Turkana Basin, and no relationship between paleoaridity and herbivore paleodiet structure among fossil collections meeting the criteria for WD estimation. Thus, we suggest that changes in the abundance of C4 grass and grazing herbivores in eastern Africa during the Pliocene and Pleistocene may have been decoupled from aridity. As in modern African ecosystems, other factors, such as rainfall seasonality or ecological interactions among plants and mammals, may be important for understanding the evolution of C4 grass- and grazer-dominated biomes.

Complex response of a midcontinent north America drainage system to late Wisconsinan sedimentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bettis, E. Arthur; Autin, W.J.

1997-01-01

The geomorphic evolution of Mud Creek basin in eastern Iowa, U.S.A. serves to illustrate how geomorphic influences such as sediment supply, valley gradient, climate, and vegetation are recorded in the alluvial stratigraphic record. Sediment supply to the fluvial system increased significantly during the late Wisconsinan through a combination of periglacial erosion and loess accumulation. Subsequent evolution of the Holocene alluvial stratigraphic record reflects long-term routing of the late Wisconsinan sediment through the drainage basin in a series of cut-and-fill cycles whose timing was influenced by hydrologic response to change in climate and vegetation. When viewed in a regional context, the alluvial stratigraphic record appears to reflect a long-term complex response of the fluvial system to increased sediment supply during the late Wisconsinan. Hydrologic and sediment-supply changes accompanying the spread of Euroamerican agriculture to the basin in the 180Os dramatically upset trends in sedimentation and channel behavior established during the Holocene. Copyright ?? 1997, SEPM (Society for Sedimentary Geology).

The effect of topography on the evolution of unstable disturbances in a baroclinic atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, J. H. E.

1985-01-01

A two layer spectral quasi-geostrophic model is used to simulate the effects of topography on the equilibria, their stability, and the long term evolution of incipient unstable waves. The flow is forced by latitudinally dependent radiative heating. Dissipation is in the form of Rayleigh friction. An analytical solution is found for the propagating finite amplitude waves which result from baroclinic instability of the zonal winds when topography is absent. The appearance of this solution for wavelengths just longer than the Rossby radius of deformation and disappearance of ultra-long wavelengths is interpreted in terms of the Hopf bifurcation theory. Simple dynamic and thermodynamic criteria for the existence of periodic Rossby solutions are presented. A Floquet stability analysis shows that the waves are neutral. The nature of the form drag instability of high index equilibria is investigated. The proximity of the equilibrium shear to a resonant value is essential for the instability, provided the equilibrium occurs at a slightly stronger shear than resonance.

Experimental verification of long-term evolution radio transmissions over dual-polarization combined fiber and free-space optics optical infrastructures.

PubMed

Bohata, J; Zvanovec, S; Pesek, P; Korinek, T; Mansour Abadi, M; Ghassemlooy, Z

2016-03-10

This paper describes the experimental verification of the utilization of long-term evolution radio over fiber (RoF) and radio over free space optics (RoFSO) systems using dual-polarization signals for cloud radio access network applications determining the specific utilization limits. A number of free space optics configurations are proposed and investigated under different atmospheric turbulence regimes in order to recommend the best setup configuration. We show that the performance of the proposed link, based on the combination of RoF and RoFSO for 64 QAM at 2.6 GHz, is more affected by the turbulence based on the measured difference error vector magnitude value of 5.5%. It is further demonstrated the proposed systems can offer higher noise immunity under particular scenarios with the signal-to-noise ratio reliability limit of 5 dB in the radio frequency domain for RoF and 19.3 dB in the optical domain for a combination of RoF and RoFSO links.

Medical management of neurocysticercosis.

PubMed

Takayanagui, Osvaldo Massaiti; Odashima, Newton Satoru; Bonato, Pierina S; Lima, Jose Eduardo; Lanchote, Vera Lucia

2011-12-01

Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is considered to be the most common cause of acquired epilepsy worldwide. Formerly restricted to palliative measures, therapy for NCC has advanced with the advent of two drugs that are considered to be effective: praziquantel (PZQ) and albendazole (ALB). All available articles regarding research related to the treatment of NCC were searched. Relevant articles were then reviewed and used as sources of information for this review. Anticysticercal therapy has been marked by intense controversy. Recent descriptions of spontaneous resolution of parenchymal cysticercosis with benign evolution, risks of complications and reports of no long-term benefits have reinforced the debate over the usefulness and safety of anticysticercal therapy. High interindividual variability and complex pharmacological interactions will require the close monitoring of plasma concentrations of ALB and PZQ metabolites in future trials. Given the relative scarcity of clinical trials, more comparative interventional studies - especially randomized controlled trials in long-term clinical evolution - are required to clarify the controversy over the validity of parasitic therapy in patients with NCC.

Coexistence Analysis of Adjacent Long Term Evolution (LTE) Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aulama, Mohannad M.; Olama, Mohammed M

As the licensing and deployment of Long term evolution (LTE) systems are ramping up, the study of coexistence of LTE systems is an essential topic in civil and military applications. In this paper, we present a coexistence study of adjacent LTE systems aiming at evaluating the effect of inter-system interference on system capacity and performance as a function of some of the most common mitigation techniques: frequency guard band, base station (BS) antenna coupling loss, and user equipment (UE) antenna spacing. A system model is constructed for two collocated macro LTE networks. The developed model takes into consideration the RFmore » propagation environment, power control scheme, and adjacent channel interference. Coexistence studies are performed for a different combination of time/frequency division duplex (TDD/FDD) systems under three different guard-bands of 0MHz, 5MHz, and 10MHz. Numerical results are presented to advice the minimum frequency guard band, BS coupling loss, and UE antenna isolation required for a healthy system operation.« less

Genome dynamics and evolution in yeasts: A long-term yeast-bacteria competition experiment

PubMed Central

Katz, Michael; Knecht, Wolfgang; Compagno, Concetta; Piškur, Jure

2018-01-01

There is an enormous genetic diversity evident in modern yeasts, but our understanding of the ecological basis of such diversifications in nature remains at best fragmented so far. Here we report a long-term experiment mimicking a primordial competitive environment, in which yeast and bacteria co-exist and compete against each other. Eighteen yeasts covering a wide phylogenetic background spanning approximately 250 million years of evolutionary history were used to establish independent evolution lines for at most 130 passages. Our collection of hundreds of modified strains generated through such a rare two-species cross-kingdom competition experiment re-created the appearance of large-scale genomic rearrangements and altered phenotypes important in the diversification history of yeasts. At the same time, the methodology employed in this evolutionary study would also be a non-gene-technological method of reprogramming yeast genomes and then selecting yeast strains with desired traits. Cross-kingdom competition may therefore be a method of significant value to generate industrially useful yeast strains with new metabolic traits. PMID:29624585

Recommendation in evolving online networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Xiao; Zeng, An; Shang, Ming-Sheng

2016-02-01

Recommender system is an effective tool to find the most relevant information for online users. By analyzing the historical selection records of users, recommender system predicts the most likely future links in the user-item network and accordingly constructs a personalized recommendation list for each user. So far, the recommendation process is mostly investigated in static user-item networks. In this paper, we propose a model which allows us to examine the performance of the state-of-the-art recommendation algorithms in evolving networks. We find that the recommendation accuracy in general decreases with time if the evolution of the online network fully depends on the recommendation. Interestingly, some randomness in users' choice can significantly improve the long-term accuracy of the recommendation algorithm. When a hybrid recommendation algorithm is applied, we find that the optimal parameter gradually shifts towards the diversity-favoring recommendation algorithm, indicating that recommendation diversity is essential to keep a high long-term recommendation accuracy. Finally, we confirm our conclusions by studying the recommendation on networks with the real evolution data.

A modeling framework for optimal long-term care insurance purchase decisions in retirement planning.

PubMed

Gupta, Aparna; Li, Lepeng

2004-05-01

The level of need and costs of obtaining long-term care (LTC) during retired life require that planning for it is an integral part of retirement planning. In this paper, we divide retirement planning into two phases, pre-retirement and post-retirement. On the basis of four interrelated models for health evolution, wealth evolution, LTC insurance premium and coverage, and LTC cost structure, a framework for optimal LTC insurance purchase decisions in the pre-retirement phase is developed. Optimal decisions are obtained by developing a trade-off between post-retirement LTC costs and LTC insurance premiums and coverage. Two-way branching models are used to model stochastic health events and asset returns. The resulting optimization problem is formulated as a dynamic programming problem. We compare the optimal decision under two insurance purchase scenarios: one assumes that insurance is purchased for good and other assumes it may be purchased, relinquished and re-purchased. Sensitivity analysis is performed for the retirement age.

Linking Short and Long Term Sediment Delivery to Morphology and Seascape Evolution of Continental Margins

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-09-30

history. OBJECTIVES 1) Is the variability in a river’s sediment load, observed over the last 100 years or less, adequate to provide a proxy for longer-term...experiments, small basins are able to capture in terms of textural proxies , both the natural variability associated with precipitation and temperature...as well as realistic scenarios of abrupt climate change. Open ocean basins, like the Eel River, are less likely to record the proxy record of ambient

Tidal evolution of close binary asteroid systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, Patrick A.; Margot, Jean-Luc

2010-12-01

We provide a generalized discussion of tidal evolution to arbitrary order in the expansion of the gravitational potential between two spherical bodies of any mass ratio. To accurately reproduce the tidal evolution of a system at separations less than 5 times the radius of the larger primary component, the tidal potential due to the presence of a smaller secondary component is expanded in terms of Legendre polynomials to arbitrary order rather than truncated at leading order as is typically done in studies of well-separated system like the Earth and Moon. The equations of tidal evolution including tidal torques, the changes in spin rates of the components, and the change in semimajor axis (orbital separation) are then derived for binary asteroid systems with circular and equatorial mutual orbits. Accounting for higher-order terms in the tidal potential serves to speed up the tidal evolution of the system leading to underestimates in the time rates of change of the spin rates, semimajor axis, and mean motion in the mutual orbit if such corrections are ignored. Special attention is given to the effect of close orbits on the calculation of material properties of the components, in terms of the rigidity and tidal dissipation function, based on the tidal evolution of the system. It is found that accurate determinations of the physical parameters of the system, e.g., densities, sizes, and current separation, are typically more important than accounting for higher-order terms in the potential when calculating material properties. In the scope of the long-term tidal evolution of the semimajor axis and the component spin rates, correcting for close orbits is a small effect, but for an instantaneous rate of change in spin rate, semimajor axis, or mean motion, the close-orbit correction can be on the order of tens of percent. This work has possible implications for the determination of the Roche limit and for spin-state alteration during close flybys.

Modeling Long-term Creep Performance for Welded Nickel-base Superalloy Structures for Power Generation Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Chen; Gupta, Vipul; Huang, Shenyan

The goal of this project is to model long-term creep performance for nickel-base superalloy weldments in high temperature power generation systems. The project uses physics-based modeling methodologies and algorithms for predicting alloy properties in heterogeneous material structures. The modeling methodology will be demonstrated on a gas turbine combustor liner weldment of Haynes 282 precipitate-strengthened nickel-base superalloy. The major developments are: (1) microstructure-property relationships under creep conditions and microstructure characterization (2) modeling inhomogeneous microstructure in superalloy weld (3) modeling mesoscale plastic deformation in superalloy weld and (4) a constitutive creep model that accounts for weld and base metal microstructure and theirmore » long term evolution. The developed modeling technology is aimed to provide a more efficient and accurate assessment of a material’s long-term performance compared with current testing and extrapolation methods. This modeling technology will also accelerate development and qualification of new materials in advanced power generation systems. This document is a final technical report for the project, covering efforts conducted from October 2014 to December 2016.« less

A multiscale climate emulator for long-term morphodynamics (MUSCLE-morpho)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antolínez, José Antonio A.; Méndez, Fernando J.; Camus, Paula; Vitousek, Sean; González, E. Mauricio; Ruggiero, Peter; Barnard, Patrick

2016-01-01

Interest in understanding long-term coastal morphodynamics has recently increased as climate change impacts become perceptible and accelerated. Multiscale, behavior-oriented and process-based models, or hybrids of the two, are typically applied with deterministic approaches which require considerable computational effort. In order to reduce the computational cost of modeling large spatial and temporal scales, input reduction and morphological acceleration techniques have been developed. Here we introduce a general framework for reducing dimensionality of wave-driver inputs to morphodynamic models. The proposed framework seeks to account for dependencies with global atmospheric circulation fields and deals simultaneously with seasonality, interannual variability, long-term trends, and autocorrelation of wave height, wave period, and wave direction. The model is also able to reproduce future wave climate time series accounting for possible changes in the global climate system. An application of long-term shoreline evolution is presented by comparing the performance of the real and the simulated wave climate using a one-line model. This article was corrected on 2 FEB 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Long-Term Interactions of Streamflow Generation and River Basin Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, X.; Niemann, J.

2005-12-01

It is well known that the spatial patterns and dynamics of streamflow generation processes depend on river basin topography, but the impact of streamflow generation processes on the long-term evolution of river basins has not drawn as much attention. Fluvial erosion processes are driven by streamflow, which can be produced by Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge. In this analysis, we hypothesize that the dominant streamflow generation process in a basin affects the spatial patterns of fluvial erosion and that the nature of these patterns changes for storm events with differing return periods. Furthermore, we hypothesize that differences in the erosion patterns modify the topography over the long term in a way that promotes and/or inhibits the other streamflow generation mechanisms. In order to test these hypotheses, a detailed hydrologic model is imbedded into an existing landscape evolution model. Precipitation events are simulated with a Poisson process and have random intensities and durations. The precipitation is partitioned between Horton runoff and infiltration to groundwater using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is described by a two-dimensional Dupuit equation for a homogeneous, isotropic, unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. Dunne runoff occurs when precipitation falls on locations where the water table reaches the land surface. The combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is applied to the WE-38 basin, an experimental watershed in Pennsylvania that has substantial available hydrologic data. First, the hydrologic model is calibrated to reproduce the observed streamflow for 1990 using the observed rainfall as the input. Then, the relative roles of Horton runoff, Dunne runoff, and groundwater discharge are controlled by varying the infiltration capacity of the soil. For each infiltration capacity, the hydrologic and geomorphic behavior of the current topography is analyzed and the long-term evolution of the basin is simulated. The results indicate that the topography can be divided into three types of locations (unsaturated, saturated, and intermittently saturated) which control the patterns of streamflow generation for events with different return periods. The results also indicate that the streamflow generation processes can produce different geomorphic effective events at upstream and downstream locations. The model also suggests that a topography dominated by groundwater discharge evolves over a long period of time to a shape that tends to inhibit the development of saturated areas and Dunne runoff.

Was the Watchmaker Blind? Or Was She One-Eyed?

PubMed Central

Noble, Raymond; Noble, Denis

2017-01-01

The question whether evolution is blind is usually presented as a choice between no goals at all (‘the blind watchmaker’) and long-term goals which would be external to the organism, for example in the form of special creation or intelligent design. The arguments either way do not address the question whether there are short-term goals within rather than external to organisms. Organisms and their interacting populations have evolved mechanisms by which they can harness blind stochasticity and so generate rapid functional responses to environmental challenges. They can achieve this by re-organising their genomes and/or their regulatory networks. Epigenetic as well as DNA changes are involved. Evolution may have no foresight, but it is at least partially directed by organisms themselves and by the populations of which they form part. Similar arguments support partial direction in the evolution of behavior. PMID:29261138

Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goebel, Kai; Vachtsevanos, George; Orchard, Marcos E.

2013-01-01

Knowledge discovery, statistical learning, and more specifically an understanding of the system evolution in time when it undergoes undesirable fault conditions, are critical for an adequate implementation of successful prognostic systems. Prognosis may be understood as the generation of long-term predictions describing the evolution in time of a particular signal of interest or fault indicator, with the purpose of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a failing component/subsystem. Predictions are made using a thorough understanding of the underlying processes and factor in the anticipated future usage.

Nonlinearity Role in Long-Term Interaction of the Ocean Gravity Waves

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

3 4 =s We found that in the fetch-limited case the wind forcing index s is similar to the time domain situation, and the wind forcing is given by...of its evolution. Fig.5 gives a graphical summary of four reference cases of self-similar evolution of wind-driven waves. These cases are shown as...different R, tangents of one-parametric dependencies H~TR height-to-period in logarithmic axes. Reference cases of growing wind sea are shown as

Dynamical Evolution and Spin-Orbit Resonances of Potentially Habitable Exoplanets. The Case of GJ 667C

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-10

observed trend is consistent with a gravitational acceleration exerted by the inner pair of stars (A and B) in this multiple star system. Our planet...the other hand, the observed trend in the RV of the C component can be caused by its orbital acceleration around the AB pair. 3. LONG-TERM EVOLUTION...polar torque acting on a rotating planet is the sum of the gravitational torque, caused by the triaxial permanent shape and the corresponding quadrupole

Coastal Evolution Modeling at Multiple Scales in Regional Sediment Management Applications

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-05-01

run-up height (including setup), ∆h is the surge level (including tide elevation relative to mean sea level (MSL)); zD is the dune toe elevation...interactive shoreline, dune , and inlet evolution, on the scale of hundreds of years, a regional and long-term perspective. The regional model...side by subscript r. Dune Erosion As waves run up on the beach and reach the foot of the dune , the dune will be subject to erosion. If it is assumed

Shoreline Evolution and Coastal Resiliency at Two Military Installations: Investigating the Potential for and Impacts of Loss of Protecting Barriers

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

control barrier morphology and migration (and potentially drowning). We have developed a numerical model of barrier evolution over the centennial ...required to maintain barrier geometries over centennial timescales. Long-term storm histories for each region show a consistent picture of...landward of the flood tidal delta is an area of over 40km2 that is over 9m deep, with some depressions as deep as 12m. During periods of rising sea-level

How does a tidal embayment morphodynamically react on sea level rise?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Wegen, Mick

2010-05-01

Conditions for (assumed) equilibrium in tidal embayments have been studied extensively in the past years with morphodynamic 1D models (Van Dongeren and De Vriend, 1994; Schuttelaars and de Swart, 1996, 2000; Lanzoni and Seminara, 2002) and 2D models (Hibma et al. [2003], Van der Wegen and Roelvink [2008]) Van der Wegen et al 2008). The current research addresses the impact of sea level rise on tidal embayments. Although effects of sea level rise may only become apparent after decades, the character of the embayment can change considerably. Examples are the (dis)appearance or re-allocation of intertidal flats, increased tidal resonance, shift from sediment export to import, deepening of channel area and other related (ecological) parameters. The research applies a 2D morphodynamic model (Delft3D) in an idealized environment. The model is based on the 2 D shallow water equations, the Engelund -Hansen transport formula and includes bed slope effects, drying and flooding procedures and an advanced morphodynamic update scheme (Roelvink 2006). The initial condition of the bathymetry is generated by 3000 years of morphodynamic calculations in a 80 km long and 2.5 km wide rectangular tidal embayment under constant M2 tidal forcing conditions (Van der Wegen and Roelvink [2008]). After this period sea level rise gradually developing towards a rate of 0.4 m/century is added to the boundary conditions. Model results describe development towards less intertidal area and a transition from an exporting system to a importing system. Model results are evaluated in terms of M2, M4 and M6 tidal constituents as well as against Vs/Vc (shoal volume over channel volume) versus a/h (amplitude over water depth) relationship as proposed by Friedrichs and Aubrey (1988). Although the model describes morphodynamic development in a strongly idealized environment the results can provide an excellent tool to systematically study the impact of sea level rise in tidal embayments as well as the time scales of dominant underlying resulting transport mechanisms and processes. DISSANAYAKE, D.M.P.K; RANASINGHE, R. and ROELVINK, J.A., 2009. Effect of Sea Level Rise in tidal inlet evolution: a numerical modelling approach. Journal of Coastal Research, SI 56 (Proceedings of the 10th International Coastal Symposium), pg - pg. Lisbon, Portugal. Friedrichs, C. T., and D. G. Aubrey (1988), Non-linear tidal distortion in shallow well mixed estuaries: A synthesis, Estuarine Coastal Shelf Sci.,27, 521- 545, doi:10.1016/0272-7714(88)90082-0. Hibma, A., H.M. Schuttelaars, and H. J. de Vriend (2003b), Initial formation and long-term evolution of channel-shoal patterns in estuaries, in Proc. 3rd RCEM conf.edited by A. Sánchez -Acrilla and A. Bateman, pp. 740-760, IAHR., Barcelona, Spain. Lanzoni, S., and G. Seminara (2002), Long-term evolution and morphodynamic equilibrium of tidal channels, J. Geophys. Res., 107(C1), 3001, doi:10.1029/2000JC000468. Roelvink, J. A. (2006), Coastal morphodynamic evolution techniques, J. Coastal Eng., 53, 177-187. Schuttelaars, H. M., and H. E. De Swart (1996), An idealized long termmorphodynamic model of a tidal embayment, Eur. J. Mech. B Fluids, 15(1), 55-80. Schuttelaars, H. M., and H. E. De Swart (2000), Multiple morphodynamic equilibria in tidal embayments, J. Geophys. Res., 105(C10), 24,105 - 24,118. Van Dongeren, A. D., and H. J. De Vriend (1994), A model of morphological behaviour of tidal basins, Coastal Eng., 22, 287- 310. van der Wegen, M., and J. A. Roelvink (2008), Long-term morphodynamic evolution of a tidal embayment using a twodimensional, process-based model, J. Geophys. Res., 113, C03016, doi:10.1029/2006JC003983 van der Wegen, M., Z. B. Wang, H. H. G. Savenije, and J. A. Roelvink (2008), Long-term morphodynamic evolution and energy dissipation in a coastal plain, tidal embayment, J. Geophys. Res., 113, F03001, doi:10.1029/2007JF000898

Sex that moves mountains: The influence of spawning fish on river profiles over geologic timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fremier, Alexander K.; Yanites, Brian J.; Yager, Elowyn M.

2018-03-01

A key component of resilience is to understand feedbacks among components of biophysical systems, such as physical drivers, ecological responses and the subsequent feedbacks onto physical process. While physically based explanations of biological speciation are common (e.g., mountains separating a species can lead to speciation), less common is the inverse process examined: can a speciation event have significant influence on physical processes and patterns in a landscape? When such processes are considered, such as with 'ecosystem engineers', many studies have focused on the short-term physical and biological effects rather than the long-term impacts. Here, we formalized the physical influence of salmon spawning on stream beds into a model of channel profile evolution by altering the critical shear stress required to move stream bed particles. We then asked if spawning and an adaptive radiation event (similar to the one that occurred in Pacific salmon species) could have an effect on channel erosion processes and stream profiles over geological timescales. We found that spawning can profoundly influence the longitudinal profiles of stream beds and thereby the evolution of entire watersheds. The radiation of five Pacific salmon from a common ancestor, additionally, could also cause significant geomorphic change by altering a wider section of the profile for a given distribution of grain sizes. This modeling study suggests that biological evolution can impact landscape evolution by increasing the sediment transport and erosion efficiency of mountain streams. Moreover, the physical effects of a species on its environment might be a complementary explanation for rapid radiation events in species through the creation of new habitat types. This example provides an illustrative case for thinking about the long- and short-term coupling of biotic and abiotic systems.

On the timing properties of SAX J1808.4-3658 during its 2015 outburst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanna, A.; Di Salvo, T.; Burderi, L.; Riggio, A.; Pintore, F.; Gambino, A. F.; Iaria, R.; Tailo, M.; Scarano, F.; Papitto, A.

2017-10-01

We present a timing analysis of the 2015 outburst of the accreting millisecond X-ray pulsar SAX J1808.4-3658, using non-simultaneous XMM-Newton and NuSTAR observations. We estimate the pulsar spin frequency and update the system orbital solution. Combining the average spin frequency from the previous observed, we confirm the long-term spin-down at an average rate \\dot{ν }_{SD}=1.5(2)× 10^{-15} Hz s-1. We also discuss possible corrections to the spin-down rate accounting for mass accretion on to the compact object when the system is X-ray active. Finally, combining the updated ephemerides with those of the previous outbursts, we find a long-term orbital evolution compatible with a binary expansion at a mean rate \\dot{P}_{orb}=3.6(4)× 10^{-12} s s-1, in agreement with previously reported values. This fast evolution is incompatible with an evolution driven by angular momentum losses caused by gravitational radiation under the hypothesis of conservative mass transfer. We discuss the observed orbital expansion in terms of non-conservative mass transfer and gravitational quadrupole coupling mechanism. We find that the latter can explain, under certain conditions, small fluctuations (of the order of few seconds) of the orbital period around a global parabolic trend. At the same time, a non-conservative mass transfer is required to explain the observed fast orbital evolution, which likely reflects ejection of a large fraction of mass from the inner Lagrangian point caused by the irradiation of the donor by the magnetodipole rotator during quiescence (radio-ejection model). This strong outflow may power tidal dissipation in the companion star and be responsible of the gravitational quadrupole change oscillations.

Evaluation of a gully headcut retreat model using multitemporal aerial photographs and digital elevation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo-Bescós, M. A.; Flores-Cervantes, J. H.; Bras, R. L.; Casalí, J.; Giráldez, J. V.

2013-12-01

large fraction of soil erosion in temperate climate systems proceeds from gully headcut growth processes. Nevertheless, headcut retreat is not well understood. Few erosion models include gully headcut growth processes, and none of the existing headcut retreat models have been tested against long-term retreat rate estimates. In this work the headcut retreat resulting from plunge pool erosion in the Channel Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) model is calibrated and compared to long-term evolution measurements of six gullies at the Bardenas Reales, northeast Spain. The headcut retreat module of CHILD was calibrated by adjusting the shape factor parameter to fit the observed retreat and volumetric soil loss of one gully during a 36 year period, using reported and collected field data to parameterize the rest of the model. To test the calibrated model, estimates by CHILD were compared to observations of headcut retreat from five other neighboring gullies. The differences in volumetric soil loss rates between the simulations and observations were less than 0.05 m3 yr-1, on average, with standard deviations smaller than 0.35 m3 yr-1. These results are the first evaluation of the headcut retreat module implemented in CHILD with a field data set. These results also show the usefulness of the model as a tool for simulating long-term volumetric gully evolution due to plunge pool erosion.

Mass transfer in white dwarf-neutron star binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrick, Alexey; Davies, Melvyn B.; Church, Ross P.

2017-05-01

We perform hydrodynamic simulations of mass transfer in binaries that contain a white dwarf and a neutron star (WD-NS binaries), and measure the specific angular momentum of material lost from the binary in disc winds. By incorporating our results within a long-term evolution model, we measure the long-term stability of mass transfer in these binaries. We find that only binaries containing helium white dwarfs (WDs) with masses less than a critical mass of MWD, crit = 0.2 M⊙ undergo stable mass transfer and evolve into ultracompact X-ray binaries. Systems with higher mass WDs experience unstable mass transfer, which leads to tidal disruption of the WD. Our low critical mass compared to the standard jet-only model of mass-loss arises from the efficient removal of angular momentum in the mechanical disc winds, which develop at highly super-Eddington mass-transfer rates. We find that the eccentricities expected for WD-NS binaries when they come into contact do not affect the loss of angular momentum, and can only affect the long-term evolution if they change on shorter time-scales than the mass-transfer rate. Our results are broadly consistent with the observed numbers of both ultracompact X-ray binaries and radio pulsars with WD companions. The observed calcium-rich gap transients are consistent with the merger rate of unstable systems with higher mass WDs.

Contribution diversity and incremental learning promote cooperation in public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Penghui; Liu, Jing

2017-11-01

Understanding the evolution of cooperation in nature has long been a challenge and how to promote cooperation in public goods games (PGG) has attracted lots of attention recently. Social diversity has been found helpful to explain the emergence of cooperation in the absence of reputation and punishment. However, further refinement on how individuals reallocate their contribution to each PGG remains an open question. Moreover, individuals in existing works mostly teach or learn from neighbors according to their payoff in the last generation only. However, individuals in reality are preferred to learn from others with a long-term good performance. Therefore, in this paper, a new contribution diversity (CD) is designed and incremental learning (IL) is introduced. We investigate how these two may influence the evolution of cooperation in PGG. Based on the simulation results, we found that both the CD and IL can promote the cooperation in PGGs. Moreover, when cooperators are shaken in their strategy, CD may fail in reallocating contribution of individuals properly. However, IL is found effective to stabilize faith of cooperators and cooperators under IL reflect a long-term advantage over defectors in terms of benefits. Therefore, we further find IL and CD can mutually benefit each other in promoting cooperation, as CD can reasonably adjust the investment of cooperators while IL can provide more information to CD.

Effects of trawl selectivity and genetic parameters on fish body length under long-term trawling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Yang; Sun, Peng; Cui, He; Sheng, Huaxiang; Zhao, Fenfang; Tang, Yanli; Chen, Zelin

2015-10-01

Long-term fishing pressure affects the biological characteristics of exploited fish stocks. The biological characteristics of hairtail ( Trichiurus lepturus) in the East China Sea are unable to recover because of long-term trawling. Fishing induces evolutionary effects on the fish's biological characteristics. Evidence of these changes includes small size at age, a shift to earlier age structure, and early maturation. Natural and artificial selection usually affect the fish's life history. Selection can induce different chances of reproduction, and individual fish can give a different genetic contribution to the next generation. In this study, analysis of time-dependent probability of significance and test of sensitivity were used to explore the effects of fish exploitation rate, mesh size, and heritability with long-term trawling. Results showed that fishing parameters were important drivers to exploited fish population. However, genetic traits altered by fishing were slow, and the changes in biological characteristics were weaker than those caused by fishing selection. Exploitation rate and mesh size exhibited similar evolutionary trend tendency under long-term fishing. The time-dependent probability of significance trend showed a gradual growth and tended to be stable. Therefore, the direction of fishing-induced evolution and successful management of fish species require considerable attention to contribute to sustainable fisheries in China.

Ni-C-N Nanosheets as Catalyst for Hydrogen Evolution Reaction.

PubMed

Yin, Jie; Fan, Qiaohui; Li, Yuxuan; Cheng, Fangyi; Zhou, Panpan; Xi, Pinxian; Sun, Shouheng

2016-11-09

We report a facile nitrogenation/exfoliation process to prepare hybrid Ni-C-N nanosheets. These nanosheets are <2 nm thin, chemically stable, and metallically conductive. They serve as a robust catalyst for the hydrogen evolution reaction in 0.5 M H 2 SO 4 , or 1.0 M KOH or 1.0 M PBS (pH = 7). For example, they catalyze the hydrogen evolution reaction in 0.5 M H 2 SO 4 at an onset potential of 34.7 mV, an overpotential of 60.9 mV (at j = 10 mA cm -2 ) and with remarkable long-term stability (∼10% current drop after 70 h testing period). They are promising as a non-Pt catalyst for practical hydrogen evolution reaction.

The impact and evolution of magnetic confinement in hot stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keszthelyi, Z.; Wade, G. A.; Petit, V.; Meynet, G.; Georgy, C.

2018-01-01

Magnetic confinement of the winds of hot, massive stars has far-reaching consequences on timescales ranging from hours to Myr. Understanding the long-term effects of this interplay has already led to the identification of two new evolutionary pathways to form `heavy' stellar mass black holes and pair-instability supernova even at galactic metallicity. We are performing 1D stellar evolution model calculations that, for the first time, account for the surface effects and the time evolution of fossil magnetic fields. These models will be thoroughly confronted with observations and will potentially lead to a significant revision of the derived parameters of observed magnetic massive stars.

Innovative Reactive and Proactive Graduate Student Recruiting Techniques.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laird, Hugh E., II

1989-01-01

The evolution of the recruiting techniques used by the University of Arizona's pharmacology and toxicology graduate program are described, considerations in the development of recruitment efforts are discussed, and issues for the profession to examine in developing a long-term strategy for recruiting students are outlined. (MSE)

The Evolution and Utility of the Burn Specific Health Scale: A Systematic Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

burn survivors facing substantial long-term rehabilitation and life-long physical, social and psychological challenges. A burn is one of the most...as functional, emotional, and social readjustment [5]. Sudden and serious burn precipitates cognitive and emotional challenges that affect the course...state of complete physical, mental and social well- being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity’’ [11]. More recently, there is agreement

Chromosome rearrangements and the evolution of genome structuring and adaptability.

PubMed

Crombach, Anton; Hogeweg, Paulien

2007-05-01

Eukaryotes appear to evolve by micro and macro rearrangements. This is observed not only for long-term evolutionary adaptation, but also in short-term experimental evolution of yeast, Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Moreover, based on these and other experiments it has been postulated that repeat elements, retroposons for example, mediate such events. We study an evolutionary model in which genomes with retroposons and a breaking/repair mechanism are subjected to a changing environment. We show that retroposon-mediated rearrangements can be a beneficial mutational operator for short-term adaptations to a new environment. But simply having the ability of rearranging chromosomes does not imply an advantage over genomes in which only single-gene insertions and deletions occur. Instead, a structuring of the genome is needed: genes that need to be amplified (or deleted) in a new environment have to cluster. We show that genomes hosting retroposons, starting with a random order of genes, will in the long run become organized, which enables (fast) rearrangement-based adaptations to the environment. In other words, our model provides a "proof of principle" that genomes can structure themselves in order to increase the beneficial effect of chromosome rearrangements.

Modeling the evolution and distribution of the frequency's second derivative and the braking index of pulsar spin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yi; Zhang, Shuang-Nan; Liao, Jin-Yuan

2015-07-01

We model the evolution of the spin frequency's second derivative v̈ and the braking index n of radio pulsars with simulations within the phenomenological model of their surface magnetic field evolution, which contains a long-term power-law decay modulated by short-term oscillations. For the pulsar PSR B0329+54, a model with three oscillation components can reproduce its v̈ variation. We show that the “averaged” n is different from the instantaneous n, and its oscillation magnitude decreases abruptly as the time span increases, due to the “averaging” effect. The simulated timing residuals agree with the main features of the reported data. Our model predicts that the averaged v̈ of PSR B0329+54 will start to decrease rapidly with newer data beyond those used in Hobbs et al. We further perform Monte Carlo simulations for the distribution of the reported data in |v̈| and |n| versus characteristic age τC diagrams. It is found that the magnetic field oscillation model with decay index α = 0 can reproduce the distributions quite well. Compared with magnetic field decay due to the ambipolar diffusion (α = 0.5) and the Hall cascade (α = 1.0), the model with no long term decay (α = 0) is clearly preferred for old pulsars by the p-values of the two-dimensional Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Cloud Ablation by a Relativistic Jet and the Extended Flare in CTA 102 in 2016 and 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zacharias, M.; Böttcher, M.; Jankowsky, F.; Lenain, J.-P.; Wagner, S. J.; Wierzcholska, A.

2017-12-01

In late 2016 and early 2017, the flat spectrum radio quasar CTA 102 exhibited a very strong and long-lasting outburst. The event can be described by a roughly two-month long increase of the baseline flux in the monitored energy bands (optical to γ-rays) by a factor 8, and a subsequent decrease over another two months back to pre-flare levels. The long-term trend was superseded by short but very strong flares, resulting in a peak flux that was a factor 50 above pre-flare levels in the γ-ray domain and almost a factor 100 above pre-flare levels in the optical domain. In this paper, we explain the long-term evolution of the outburst by the ablation of a gas cloud penetrating the relativistic jet. The slice-by-slice ablation results in a gradual increase of the particle injection until the center of the cloud is reached, after which the injected number of particles decreases again. With reasonable cloud parameters, we obtain excellent fits of the long-term trend.

The Long-term Post-outburst Spin Down and Flux Relaxation of Magnetar Swift J1822.3-1606

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholz, P.; Kaspi, V. M.; Cumming, A.

2014-05-01

The magnetar Swift J1822.3-1606 entered an outburst phase in 2011 July. Previous X-ray studies of its post-outburst rotational evolution yielded inconsistent measurements of the spin-inferred magnetic field. Here we present the timing behavior and flux relaxation from over two years of Swift, RXTE, and Chandra observations following the outburst. We find that the ambiguity in previous timing solutions was due to enhanced spin down that resembles an exponential recovery following a glitch at the outburst onset. After fitting out the effects of the recovery, we measure a long-term spin-down rate of \\dot{\

Long-Term Safety of Textured and Smooth Breast Implants.

PubMed

Calobrace, M Bradley; Schwartz, Michael R; Zeidler, Kamakshi R; Pittman, Troy A; Cohen, Robert; Stevens, W Grant

2017-12-13

In this review, the authors provide a 20-year review and comparison of implant options and describe the evolution of breast implant surface textures; compare available implant surfaces; present long-term safety data from the 10-year US-based Core clinical studies; list the key benefits and risks associated with smooth and textured implants; and provide perspectives on breast implant-associated anaplastic large cell lymphoma (BIA-ALCL). The authors explore the key benefits and risks associated with all available devices so that optimal and safe patient outcomes can be achieved. © 2017 The American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery, Inc. Reprints and permission: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Alkali vapor pressure modulation on the 100 ms scale in a single-cell vacuum system for cold atom experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dugrain, Vincent; Reichel, Jakob; Rosenbusch, Peter

2014-08-15

We describe and characterize a device for alkali vapor pressure modulation on the 100 ms timescale in a single-cell cold atom experiment. Its mechanism is based on optimized heat conduction between a current-modulated alkali dispenser and a heat sink at room temperature. We have studied both the short-term behavior during individual pulses and the long-term pressure evolution in the cell. The device combines fast trap loading and relatively long trap lifetime, enabling high repetition rates in a very simple setup. These features make it particularly suitable for portable atomic sensors.

Sulfur poisoning of Ni/Gadolinium-doped ceria anodes: A long-term study outlining stable solid oxide fuel cell operation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riegraf, Matthias; Zekri, Atef; Knipper, Martin; Costa, Rémi; Schiller, Günter; Friedrich, K. Andreas

2018-03-01

This work presents an analysis of the long-term behavior of nickel/gadolinium-doped ceria (CGO) anode-based solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) under sulfur poisoning conditions. A parameter study of sulfur-induced irreversible long-term degradation of commercial, high-performance single cells was carried out at 900 °C for different H2/N2/H2S fuel gas atmospheres, current densities and Ni/CGO anodes. The poisoning periods of the cells varied from 200 to 1500 h. The possibility of stable long-term Ni/CGO anode operation under sulfur exposure is established and the critical operating regime is outlined. Depending on the operating conditions, two degradation phenomena can be observed. Small degradation of the ohmic resistance was witnessed for sulfur exposure times of approximately 1000 h. Moreover, degradation of the anode charge transfer resistance was observed to be triggered by the combination of a small anodic potential step and high sulfur coverage on Ni. The microstructural evolution of altered Ni/CGO anodes was examined post-mortem by means of SEM and FIB/SEM, and is correlated to the anode performance degradation under critical operating conditions, establishing Ni depletion, porosity increase and a tripe phase boundary density decrease in the anode functional layer. It is shown that short-term sulfur poisoning behavior can be used to assess long-term stability.

Evolutionary decay and the prospects for long-term disease intervention using engineered insect vectors

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

After a long history of applying the sterile insect technique to suppress populations of disease vectors and agricultural pests, there is growing interest in using genetic engineering both to improve old methods and to enable new methods. The two goals of interventions are to suppress populations, possibly eradicating a species altogether, or to abolish the vector’s competence to transmit a parasite. New methods enabled by genetic engineering include the use of selfish genes toward either goal as well as a variety of killer-rescue systems that could be used for vector competence reduction. This article reviews old and new methods with an emphasis on the potential for evolution of resistance to these strategies. Established methods of population suppression did not obviously face a problem from resistance evolution, but newer technologies might. Resistance to these newer interventions will often be mechanism-specific, and while it is too early to know where resistance evolution will become a problem, it is at least possible to propose properties of interventions that will be more or less effective in blocking resistance evolution. PMID:26160736

Dynamics of morphological evolution in experimental Escherichia coli populations.

PubMed

Cui, F; Yuan, B

2016-08-30

Here, we applied a two-stage clonal expansion model of morphological (cell-size) evolution to a long-term evolution experiment with Escherichia coli. Using this model, we derived the incidence function of the appearance of cell-size stability, the waiting time until this morphological stability, and the conditional and unconditional probabilities of morphological stability. After assessing the parameter values, we verified that the calculated waiting time was consistent with the experimental results, demonstrating the effectiveness of the two-stage model. According to the relative contributions of parameters to the incidence function and the waiting time, cell-size evolution is largely determined by the promotion rate, i.e., the clonal expansion rate of selectively advantageous organisms. This rate plays a prominent role in the evolution of cell size in experimental populations, whereas all other evolutionary forces were found to be less influential.

Damage-Based Time-Dependent Modeling of Paraglacial to Postglacial Progressive Failure of Large Rock Slopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riva, Federico; Agliardi, Federico; Amitrano, David; Crosta, Giovanni B.

2018-01-01

Large alpine rock slopes undergo long-term evolution in paraglacial to postglacial environments. Rock mass weakening and increased permeability associated with the progressive failure of deglaciated slopes promote the development of potentially catastrophic rockslides. We captured the entire life cycle of alpine slopes in one damage-based, time-dependent 2-D model of brittle creep, including deglaciation, damage-dependent fluid occurrence, and rock mass property upscaling. We applied the model to the Spriana rock slope (Central Alps), affected by long-term instability after Last Glacial Maximum and representing an active threat. We simulated the evolution of the slope from glaciated conditions to present day and calibrated the model using site investigation data and available temporal constraints. The model tracks the entire progressive failure path of the slope from deglaciation to rockslide development, without a priori assumptions on shear zone geometry and hydraulic conditions. Complete rockslide differentiation occurs through the transition from dilatant damage to a compacting basal shear zone, accounting for observed hydraulic barrier effects and perched aquifer formation. Our model investigates the mechanical role of deglaciation and damage-controlled fluid distribution in the development of alpine rockslides. The absolute simulated timing of rock slope instability development supports a very long "paraglacial" period of subcritical rock mass damage. After initial damage localization during the Lateglacial, rockslide nucleation initiates soon after the onset of Holocene, whereas full mechanical and hydraulic rockslide differentiation occurs during Mid-Holocene, supporting a key role of long-term damage in the reported occurrence of widespread rockslide clusters of these ages.

Evolution of long-term coloration trends with biochemically unstable ingredients

PubMed Central

Davis, Sarah N.; Andrews, John E.; Badyaev, Alexander V.

2016-01-01

The evolutionarily persistent and widespread use of carotenoid pigments in animal coloration contrasts with their biochemical instability. Consequently, evolution of carotenoid-based displays should include mechanisms to accommodate or limit pigment degradation. In birds, this could involve two strategies: (i) evolution of a moult immediately prior to the mating season, enabling the use of particularly fast-degrading carotenoids and (ii) evolution of the ability to stabilize dietary carotenoids through metabolic modification or association with feather keratins. Here, we examine evolutionary lability and transitions between the two strategies across 126 species of birds. We report that species that express mostly unmodified, fast-degrading, carotenoids have pre-breeding moults, and a particularly short time between carotenoid deposition and the subsequent breeding season. Species that expressed mostly slow-degrading carotenoids in their plumage accomplished this through increased metabolic modification of dietary carotenoids, and the selective expression of these slow-degrading compounds. In these species, the timing of moult was not associated with carotenoid composition of plumage displays. Using repeated samples from individuals of one species, we found that metabolic modification of dietary carotenoids significantly slowed their degradation between moult and breeding season. Thus, the most complex and colourful ornamentation is likely the most biochemically stable in birds, and depends less on ecological factors, such as moult timing and migration tendency. We suggest that coevolution of metabolic modification, selective expression and biochemical stability of plumage carotenoids enables the use of unstable pigments in long-term evolutionary trends in plumage coloration. PMID:27194697

Divergence and evolution of cotton bHLH proteins from diploid to allotetraploid.

PubMed

Liu, Bingliang; Guan, Xueying; Liang, Wenhua; Chen, Jiedan; Fang, Lei; Hu, Yan; Guo, Wangzhen; Rong, Junkang; Xu, Guohua; Zhang, Tianzhen

2018-02-23

Polyploidy is considered a major driving force in genome expansion, yielding duplicated genes whose expression may be conserved or divergence as a consequence of polyploidization. We compared the genome sequences of tetraploid cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) and its two diploid progenitors, G. arboreum and G. raimondii, and found that the bHLH genes were conserved over the polyploidization. Oppositely, the expression of the homeolgous gene pairs was diversified. The biased homeologous proportion for bHLH family is significantly higher (64.6%) than the genome wide homeologous expression bias (40%). Compared with cacao (T. cacao), orthologous genes only accounted for a small proportion (41.7%) of whole cotton bHLHs family. The further Ks analysis indicated that bHLH genes underwent at least two distinct episodes of whole genome duplication: a recent duplication (1.0-60.0 million years ago, MYA, 0.005 < Ks < 0.312) and an old duplication (> 60.0 MYA, 0.312 < Ks < 3.0). The old duplication event might have played a key role in the expansion of the bHLH family. Both recent and old duplicated pairs (68.8%) showed a divergent expression profile, indicating specialized functions. The expression diversification of the duplicated genes suggested it might be a universal feature of the long-term evolution of cotton. Overview of cotton bHLH proteins indicated a conserved and divergent evolution from diploids to allotetraploid. Our results provided an excellent example for studying the long-term evolution of polyploidy.

The superslow pulsation X-ray pulsars in high mass X-ray binaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei

2013-03-01

There exists a special class of X-ray pulsars that exhibit very slow pulsation of P spin > 1000 s in the high mass X-ray binaries (HMXBs). We have studied the temporal and spectral properties of these superslow pulsation neutron star binaries in hard X-ray bands with INTEGRAL observations. Long-term monitoring observations find spin period evolution of two sources: spin-down trend for 4U 2206+54 (P spin ~ 5560 s with Ṗ spin ~ 4.9 × 10-7 s s-1) and long-term spin-up trend for 2S 0114+65 (P spin ~ 9600 s with Ṗ spin ~ -1 × 10-6 s s-1) in the last 20 years. A Be X-ray transient, SXP 1062 (P spin ~ 1062 s), also showed a fast spin-down rate of Ṗ spin ~ 3 × 10-6 s s-1 during an outburst. These superslow pulsation neutron stars cannot be produced in the standard X-ray binary evolution model unless the neutron star has a much stronger surface magnetic field (B > 1014 G). The physical origin of the superslow spin period is still unclear. The possible origin and evolution channels of the superslow pulsation X-ray pulsars are discussed. Superslow pulsation X-ray pulsars could be younger X-ray binary systems, still in the fast evolution phase preceding the final equilibrium state. Alternatively, they could be a new class of neutron star system - accreting magnetars.

Evolution of restraint in a structured rock–paper–scissors community

PubMed Central

Nahum, Joshua R.; Harding, Brittany N.; Kerr, Benjamin

2011-01-01

It is not immediately clear how costly behavior that benefits others evolves by natural selection. By saving on inherent costs, individuals that do not contribute socially have a selective advantage over altruists if both types receive equal benefits. Restrained consumption of a common resource is a form of altruism. The cost of this kind of prudent behavior is that restrained individuals give up resources to less-restrained individuals. The benefit of restraint is that better resource management may prolong the persistence of the group. One way to dodge the problem of defection is for altruists to interact disproportionately with other altruists. With limited dispersal, restrained individuals persist because of interaction with like types, whereas it is the unrestrained individuals that must face the negative long-term consequences of their rapacity. Here, we study the evolution of restraint in a community of three competitors exhibiting a nontransitive (rock–paper–scissors) relationship. The nontransitivity ensures a form of negative feedback, whereby improvement in growth of one competitor has the counterintuitive consequence of lowering the density of that improved player. This negative feedback generates detrimental long-term consequences for unrestrained growth. Using both computer simulations and evolution experiments with a nontransitive community of Escherichia coli, we find that restrained growth can evolve under conditions of limited dispersal in which negative feedback is present. This research, thus, highlights a set of ecological conditions sufficient for the evolution of one form of altruism. PMID:21690371

Evolution of restraint in a structured rock-paper-scissors community.

PubMed

Nahum, Joshua R; Harding, Brittany N; Kerr, Benjamin

2011-06-28

It is not immediately clear how costly behavior that benefits others evolves by natural selection. By saving on inherent costs, individuals that do not contribute socially have a selective advantage over altruists if both types receive equal benefits. Restrained consumption of a common resource is a form of altruism. The cost of this kind of prudent behavior is that restrained individuals give up resources to less-restrained individuals. The benefit of restraint is that better resource management may prolong the persistence of the group. One way to dodge the problem of defection is for altruists to interact disproportionately with other altruists. With limited dispersal, restrained individuals persist because of interaction with like types, whereas it is the unrestrained individuals that must face the negative long-term consequences of their rapacity. Here, we study the evolution of restraint in a community of three competitors exhibiting a nontransitive (rock-paper-scissors) relationship. The nontransitivity ensures a form of negative feedback, whereby improvement in growth of one competitor has the counterintuitive consequence of lowering the density of that improved player. This negative feedback generates detrimental long-term consequences for unrestrained growth. Using both computer simulations and evolution experiments with a nontransitive community of Escherichia coli, we find that restrained growth can evolve under conditions of limited dispersal in which negative feedback is present. This research, thus, highlights a set of ecological conditions sufficient for the evolution of one form of altruism.

Adaptive evolution of body size subject to indirect effect in trophic cascade system.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Fan, Meng; Hao, Lina

2017-09-01

Trophic cascades represent a classic example of indirect effect and are wide-spread in nature. Their ecological impact are well established, but the evolutionary consequences have received even less theoretical attention. We theoretically and numerically investigate the trait (i.e., body size of consumer) evolution in response to indirect effect in a trophic cascade system. By applying the quantitative trait evolutionary theory and the adaptive dynamic theory, we formulate and explore two different types of eco-evolutionary resource-consumer-predator trophic cascade model. First, an eco-evolutionary model incorporating the rapid evolution is formulated to investigate the effect of rapid evolution of the consumer's body size, and to explore the impact of density-mediate indirect effect on the population dynamics and trait dynamics. Next, by employing the adaptive dynamic theory, a long-term evolutionary model of consumer body size is formulated to evaluate the effect of long-term evolution on the population dynamics and the effect of trait-mediate indirect effect. Those models admit rich dynamics that has not been observed yet in empirical studies. It is found that, both in the trait-mediated and density-mediated system, the body size of consumer in predator-consumer-resource interaction (indirect effect) evolves smaller than that in consumer-resource and predator-consumer interaction (direct effect). Moreover, in the density-mediated system, we found that the evolution of consumer body size contributes to avoiding consumer extinction (i.e., evolutionary rescue). The trait-mediate and density-mediate effects may produce opposite evolutionary response. This study suggests that the trophic cascade indirect effect affects consumer evolution, highlights a more comprehensive mechanistic understanding of the intricate interplay between ecological and evolutionary force. The modeling approaches provide avenue for study on indirect effects from an evolutionary perspective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repeated learning makes cultural evolution unique

PubMed Central

Strimling, Pontus; Enquist, Magnus; Eriksson, Kimmo

2009-01-01

Although genetic information is acquired only once, cultural information can be both abandoned and reacquired during an individual's lifetime. Therefore, cultural evolution will be determined not only by cultural traits' ability to spread but also by how good they are at sticking with an individual; however, the evolutionary consequences of this aspect of culture have not previously been explored. Here we show that repeated learning and multiple characteristics of cultural traits make cultural evolution unique, allowing dynamical phenomena we can recognize as specifically cultural, such as traits that both spread quickly and disappear quickly. Importantly, the analysis of our model also yields a theoretical objection to the popular suggestion that biological and cultural evolution can be understood in similar terms. We find that the possibility to predict long-term cultural evolution by some success index, analogous to biological fitness, depends on whether individuals have few or many opportunities to learn. If learning opportunities are few, we find that the existence of a success index may be logically impossible, rendering notions of “cultural fitness” meaningless. On the other hand, if individuals can learn many times, we find a success index that works, regardless of whether the transmission pattern is vertical, oblique, or horizontal. PMID:19666615

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-03-21

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner's Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual's death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A structured population model suggests that long life and post-reproductive lifespan promote the evolution of cooperation

PubMed Central

Ross, Caitlin; Rychtář, Jan; Rueppell, Olav

2015-01-01

Social organization correlates with longevity across animal taxa. This correlation has been explained by selection for longevity by social evolution. The reverse causality is also conceivable but has not been sufficiently considered. We constructed a simple, spatially structured population model of asexually reproducing individuals to study the effect of temporal life history structuring on the evolution of cooperation. Individuals employed fixed strategies of cooperation or defection towards all neighbours in a basic Prisoner’s Dilemma paradigm. Individuals aged and transitioned through different life history stages asynchronously without migration. An individual’s death triggered a reproductive event by one immediate neighbour. The specific neighbour was chosen probabilistically according to the cumulative payoff from all local interactions. Varying the duration of pre-reproductive, reproductive, and post-reproductive life history stages, long-term simulations allowed a systematic evaluation of the influence of the duration of these specific life history stages. Our results revealed complex interactions among the effects of the three basic life history stages and the benefit to defect. Overall, a long post-reproductive stage promoted the evolution of cooperation, while a prolonged pre-reproductive stage has a negative effect. In general, the total length of life also increased the probability of the evolution of cooperation. Thus, our specific model suggests that the timing of life history transitions and total duration of life history stages may affect the evolution of cooperative behaviour. We conclude that the causation of the empirically observed association of life expectancy and sociality may be more complex than previously realized. PMID:25637763

Evolution of environmental exposure science: Using breath-borne biomarkers for “discovery” of the human exposome

EPA Science Inventory

According to recent research, 70-90% of long-term latency and chronic human disease incidence is attributable to environmental (human exposome) factors through the gene x environment interaction. Environmental exposures are complex and involve many thousands of chemicals, a mult...

Global University Rankings: Implications in General and for Australia

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marginson, Simon

2007-01-01

Global university rankings have arrived, and though still in a process of rapid evolution, they are likely to substantially influence the long-term development of higher education across the world. The inclusions, definitions, methods, implications and effects are of great importance. This paper analyses and critiques the two principal rankings…

Developing New Understandings of PDS Work: Better Problems, Better Questions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dana, Nancy Fitchman; Silva, Diane Yendol; Gimbert, Belinda; Nolan, Jim, Jr.; Zembal-Saul, Carla; Tzur, Ron; Mule, Lucy; Sanders, Lynne

2001-01-01

Demonstrates how analyzing the evolution of long-term Professional Development School (PDS) problems can serve as indicators of PDS growth, identifying three persistent problems (building trust and relationships between university and school personnel, reconceptualizing existing coursework to fit in the PDS context, and making inquiry a central…

Geothermal Grows Up

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, William C.; Kraemer, Steven; Ormond, Paul

2011-01-01

Self-declared energy and carbon reduction goals on the part of progressive colleges and universities have driven ground source geothermal space heating and cooling systems into rapid evolution, as part of long-term climate action planning efforts. The period of single-building or single-well solutions is quickly being eclipsed by highly engineered…

76 FR 14664 - Notice of Public Information Collection(s) Being Reviewed by the Federal Communications...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-17

... public safety broadband networks to employ the Long Term Evolution (LTE) broadband standard, specifically... and Order further requires that these networks support certain LTE interfaces. These requirements were... network deployment, that its network will support the required LTE interfaces. This requirement will...

Lessons Learned: The Evolution of an Undergraduate Research Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Gregory; Laker, Lauren; Tesch, Debbie

2013-01-01

Undergraduate research programs are commonplace at many universities. However, little research has been conducted to evaluate their ongoing and long-term effectiveness from the standpoint of the undergraduate student researcher. In an effort to gain perspective from the student researcher, including their thoughts on such a program, a survey was…

Darwinian Liberal Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnhart, Larry

2006-01-01

Be it metaphysics, theology, or some other unifying framework, humans have long sought to determine "first principles" underlying knowledge. Larry Arnhart continues in this vein, positing a Darwinian web of genetic, cultural, and cognitive evolution to explain our social behavior in terms of human nature as governed by biology. He leaves it to us…

A framework for spatial and temporal analysis of hillslope-channel coupling in a dryland basin 2401

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The long-term evolution of channel longitudinal profiles within drainage basins is partly determined by the relative balance of hillslope sediment supply to channels and the evacuation of channel sediment. However, the lack of theoretical understanding of the physical processes of hillslope-channel...

Evolution and Punctuation of Theories of Educational Expenditure and Student Outcomes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marion, Russ; Flanigan, Jack

2001-01-01

Examines whether school-expenditure theory can be described in terms of Thomas Kuhn's punctuated-equilibrium model: long periods of theoretical stasis interspersed with brief periods of revolutionary change. Current researchers, influenced by organizational behavior theories, believe that finding a global money/student outcome relationship is an…

The potential of space exploration for the fine arts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mclaughlin, William I.

1993-01-01

Art provides an integrating function between the 'upper' and 'lower' centers of the human psyche. The nature of this function can be made more specific through the triune model of the brain. The evolution of the fine arts - painting, drawing, architecture, sculpture, literature, music, dance, and drama, plus cinema and mathematics-as-a-fine-art - are examined in the context of their probable stimulations by space exploration: near term and long term.

Initial Approaches to Mitigating the Impacts of the AWS-3 Auction (1755-1780 MHz)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-13

band. Specifically, the impact of new Long Term Evolution – Advanced ( LTE -A) services on AMT operations at the Edwards Range. 15. SUBJECT TERMS...AWS-3, Aeronautical Mobile Telemetry, LTE -A, Transition Plan, Transmitters, Receivers, Antenna Systems, Bandwidth Efficient Modulation, Spectrum 16...occupants of the adjacent band which is expected to be 4G LTE -Advanced services • More potential for RF interference from commercial services • Band will

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick; Limber, Patrick W.; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

2017-01-01

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Limber, Patrick; Erikson, Li; Cole, Blake

2017-04-01

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

Radionuclide Incorporation and Long Term Performance of Apatite Waste Forms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Jianwei; Lian, Jie; Gao, Fei

2016-01-04

This project aims to combines state-of-the-art experimental and characterization techniques with atomistic simulations based on density functional theory (DFT) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. With an initial focus on long-lived I-129 and other radionuclides such as Cs, Sr in apatite structure, specific research objectives include the atomic scale understanding of: (1) incorporation behavior of the radionuclides and their effects on the crystal chemistry and phase stability; (2) stability and microstructure evolution of designed waste forms under coupled temperature and radiation environments; (3) incorporation and migration energetics of radionuclides and release behaviors as probed by DFT and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations;more » and (4) chemical durability as measured in dissolution experiments for long term performance evaluation and model validation.« less

No Future in the Past? The role of initial topography on landform evolution model predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hancock, G. R.; Coulthard, T. J.; Lowry, J.

2014-12-01

Our understanding of earth surface processes is based on long-term empirical understandings, short-term field measurements as well as numerical models. In particular, numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs) have been developed which have the capability to capture a range of both surface (erosion and deposition), tectonics, as well as near surface or critical zone processes (i.e. pedogenesis). These models have a range of applications for understanding both surface and whole of landscape dynamics through to more applied situations such as degraded site rehabilitation. LEMs are now at the stage of development where if calibrated, can provide some level of reliability. However, these models are largely calibrated based on parameters determined from present surface conditions which are the product of much longer-term geology-soil-climate-vegetation interactions. Here, we assess the effect of the initial landscape dimensions and associated error as well as parameterisation for a potential post-mining landform design. The results demonstrate that subtle surface changes in the initial DEM as well as parameterisation can have a large impact on landscape behaviour, erosion depth and sediment discharge. For example, the predicted sediment output from LEM's is shown to be highly variable even with very subtle changes in initial surface conditions. This has two important implications in that decadal time scale field data is needed to (a) better parameterise models and (b) evaluate their predictions. We question how a LEM using parameters derived from field plots can firstly be employed to examine long-term landscape evolution. Secondly, the potential range of outcomes is examined based on estimated temporal parameter change and thirdly, the need for more detailed and rigorous field data for calibration and validation of these models is discussed.

Energy balance and runoff modelling of glaciers in the Kongsfjord basin in northwestern Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, J.; Pramanik, A.; van Pelt, W.

2016-12-01

Glaciers and ice caps cover 36,000 Km2 or 60% of the land area of the Svalbard archipelago. Roughly 60% of the glaciated area drains to the ocean through tidewater glacier fronts. Runoff from tidewater glaciers is posited to have a significant impact on fjord circulation and thereby on fjord ecosystems. Ocean circulation modelling underway in the Kongsfjord system requires specification of the freshwater amounts contributed by both tidewater and land-terminating glaciers in its basin. The total basin area of Kongsfjord is 1850 km2. We use a coupled surface energy-balance and firn model (Van Pelt et al. 2015) to calculate mass balance and runoff from the Kongsfjord glaciers for the period 1969-2015. Meteorological data from the nearby station at Ny-Ålesund is used for climate forcing in the model domain, with mass balance data at four glaciers in the Kongsfjord watershed used to calibrate model parameters. Precipitation and temperature lapse rates are adjusted on the study glaciers through repeated model runs at mass balance stake locations to match observed and modelled surface mass balance. Long-term discharge measurement at two sites in this region are used to validate the modelled runoff. Spatial and temporal evolution of melt, refreezing and runoff are analyzed, along with the vertical evolution of subsurface conditions. Reference: Van Pelt, W.J.J. & J. Kohler. 2015. Modelling the long-term mass balance and firn evolution of glaciers around Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. J. Glaciol, 61(228), 731-744. Glaciers and ice caps cover 36,000 Km2 or 60% of the land area of the Svalbard archipelago. Roughly 60% of the glaciated area drains to the ocean through tidewater glacier fronts. Runoff from tidewater glaciers is posited to have a significant impact on fjord circulation and thereby on fjord ecosystems. Ocean circulation modelling underway in the Kongsfjord system requires specification of the freshwater amounts contributed by both tidewater and land-terminating glaciers in its basin. The total basin area of Kongsfjord is 1850 km2. We use a coupled surface energy-balance and firn model (Van Pelt et al. 2015) to calculate mass balance and runoff from the Kongsfjord glaciers for the period 1969-2015. Meteorological data from the nearby station at Ny-Ålesund is used for climate forcing in the model domain, with mass balance data at four glaciers in the Kongsfjord watershed used to calibrate model parameters. Precipitation and temperature lapse rates are adjusted on the study glaciers through repeated model runs at mass balance stake locations to match observed and modelled surface mass balance. Long-term discharge measurement at two sites in this region are used to validate the modelled runoff. Spatial and temporal evolution of melt, refreezing and runoff are analyzed, along with the vertical evolution of subsurface conditions. Reference: Van Pelt, W.J.J. & J. Kohler. 2015. Modelling the long-term mass balance and firn evolution of glaciers around Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. J. Glaciol, 61(228), 731-744.

Estimating long-term evolution of fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir using a simplified method based on classification of boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

2017-04-01

The Iffezheim reservoir is the last of a series of reservoirs on the Upper Rhine in Germany. Since its construction in 1977, approximately 115,000 m3 of fine sediments accumulate annually in the weir channel (WSA Freiburg, 2011). In order to obtain detailed information about the space-time development of the topography, the riverbed evolution was measured using echo sounding by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV). 37 sets of sounding data, which have been obtained between July 2000 and February 2011, were used in this research. In a previous work, the morphodynamic processes in the Iffezheim reservoir were investigated using a high-resolution 3D model. The 3D computational fluid dynamic software SSIIM II (Olsen, 2014) was used for this purpose (Zhang et al., 2015). The model was calibrated using field measurements. A computational time of 14.5 hours, using 24 cores of a 2.4 GHz reference computer, was needed for simulating a period of three months on a grid of 238,013 cells. Thus, the long-term (e.g. 30 years) simulation of morphodynamics of the fine sediment budget in the Iffezheim reservoir with this model is not feasible. A low complexity approach of "classification of the boundary conditions of discharge and suspended sediment concentration" was applied in this research for a long-term numerical simulation. The basic idea of the approach is to replace instationary or quasi-steady simulations of deposition by a limited series of stationary ones. For these, daily volume changes were calculated considering representative discharge and concentration. Representative boundary conditions were determined by subdividing time series of discharge and concentration into classes and using central values per class. The amount of the deposition in the reservoir for a certain period can then be obtained by adding up the calculated daily depositions. This approach was applied to 10 short-term periods, between two successive echo sounding measurements, and 2 longer ones, which include several short-term periods. Short-term periods spread from 1 to 3 months, whereas long-term periods indicate 2 and 5 years. The simulation results showed an acceptable agreement with the measurements. It was also found that the long-term periods had less deviation to the measurements than the short ones. This simplified method exhibited clear savings in computational time compared to the instationary simulations; in this case only 3 hours of computational time were needed for 5 years simulation period using the reference computer mentioned above. Further research is needed with respect to the limits of this linear approach, i.e. with respect to the frequency with which the set of steady simulations has to be updated due to significant changes in morphology and in turn in hydraulics. Yet, the preliminary results are promising, suggesting that the developed approach is very suitable for a long-term simulation of riverbed evolution. REFERENCES Olsen, N.R.B. 2014. A three-dimensional numerical model for simulation of sediment movements in water intakes with multiblock option. Version 1 and 2. User's manual. Department of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway. Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt (WSA) Freiburg. 2011. Sachstandsbericht oberer Wehrkanal Staustufe Iffezheim. Technical report - Upper weir channel of the Iffezheim hydropower reservoir. Zhang, Q., Hillebrand, G. Moser, H. & Hinkelmann, R. 2015. Simulation of non-uniform sediment transport in a German Reservoir with the SSIIM Model and sensitivity analysis. Proceedings of the 36th IAHR World Congress. The Hague, The Netherland.

The effect of ilmenite viscosity on the dynamics and evolution of an overturned lunar cumulate mantle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Nan; Dygert, Nick; Liang, Yan; Parmentier, E. M.

2017-07-01

Lunar cumulate mantle overturn and the subsequent upwelling of overturned mantle cumulates provide a potential framework for understanding the first-order thermochemical evolution of the Moon. Upwelling of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBCs) after the overturn has a dominant influence on the dynamics and long-term thermal evolution of the lunar mantle. An important parameter determining the stability and convective behavior of the IBC is its viscosity, which was recently constrained through rock deformation experiments. To examine the effect of IBC viscosity on the upwelling of overturned lunar cumulate mantle, here we conduct three-dimensional mantle convection models with an evolving core superposed by an IBC-rich layer, which resulted from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our modeling shows that a reduction of mantle viscosity by 1 order of magnitude, due to the presence of ilmenite, can dramatically change convective planform and long-term lunar mantle evolution. Our model results suggest a relatively stable partially molten IBC layer that has surrounded the lunar core to the present day.