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Sample records for long-term stochastic population

  1. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression

    PubMed Central

    Antunes, G.; Roque, A. C.; Simoes-de-Souza, F. M.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca2+ induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca2+ signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca2+ thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  2. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  3. A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Ankit; Briat, Corentin; Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-06-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed.

  4. A Scalable Computational Framework for Establishing Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Reaction Networks

    PubMed Central

    Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  5. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  6. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    DOE PAGES

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; ...

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

  7. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    SciTech Connect

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  8. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  9. Disturbance frequency and vertical distribution of seeds affect long-term population dynamics: a mechanistic seed bank model.

    PubMed

    Eager, Eric Alan; Haridas, Chirakkal V; Pilson, Diana; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2013-08-01

    Seed banks are critically important for disturbance specialist plants because seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Disturbance and seed depth affect the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which in turn affect population dynamics. We develop a density-dependent stochastic integral projection model to evaluate the effect of stochastic soil disturbances on plant population dynamics with an emphasis on mimicking how disturbances vertically redistribute seeds within the seed bank. We perform a simulation analysis of the effect of the frequency and mean depth of disturbances on the population's quasi-extinction probability, as well as the long-term mean and variance of the total density of seeds in the seed bank. We show that increasing the frequency of disturbances increases the long-term viability of the population, but the relationship between the mean depth of disturbance and the long-term viability of the population are not necessarily monotonic for all parameter combinations. Specifically, an increase in the probability of disturbance increases the long-term viability of the total seed bank population. However, if the probability of disturbance is too low, a shallower mean depth of disturbance can increase long-term viability, a relationship that switches as the probability of disturbance increases. However, a shallow disturbance depth is beneficial only in scenarios with low survival in the seed bank.

  10. Sensitivity of train stochastic dynamics to long-term evolution of track irregularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestoille, N.; Soize, C.; Funfschilling, C.

    2016-05-01

    The influence of the track geometry on the dynamic response of the train is of great concern for the railway companies, because they have to guarantee the safety of the train passengers in ensuring the stability of the train. In this paper, the long-term evolution of the dynamic response of the train on a stretch of the railway track is studied with respect to the long-term evolution of the track geometry. The characterisation of the long-term evolution of the train response allows the railway companies to start off maintenance operations of the track at the best moment. The study is performed using measurements of the track geometry, which are carried out very regularly by a measuring train. A stochastic model of the studied stretch of track is created in order to take into account the measurement uncertainties in the track geometry. The dynamic response of the train is simulated with a multibody software. A noise is added in output of the simulation to consider the uncertainties in the computational model of the train dynamics. Indicators on the dynamic response of the train are defined, allowing to visualize the long-term evolution of the stability and the comfort of the train, when the track geometry deteriorates.

  11. Recommendations for Long Term Care in an Elderly Medicaid Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Shirley S.; McAuley, William J.

    The State of Virginia has had a statewide nursing home preadmission screening program since 1977 and has made efforts to ensure appropriate placement of individuals in long term care settings. In a major effort to divert certain individuals from institutionalization, a personal care option has been provided. Using data from the Preadmission…

  12. Long-term population cycles in human societies.

    PubMed

    Turchin, Peter

    2009-04-01

    Human population dynamics are usually conceptualized as either boundless growth or growth to an equilibrium. The implicit assumption underlying these paradigms is that any feedback processes regulating population density, if they exist, operate on a fast-time-scale, and therefore we do not expect to observe population oscillations in human population numbers. This review asks, are population processes in historical and prehistorical human populations characterized by second-order feedback loops, that is, regulation involving lags? If yes, then the implications for forecasting future population change are obvious--what may appear as inexplicable, exogenously driven reverses in population trends may actually be a result of feedbacks operating with substantial time lags. This survey of a variety of historical and archeological data indicates that slow oscillations in population numbers, with periods of roughly two to three centuries, are observed in a number of world regions and historical periods. Next, a potential explanation for this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, is discussed. Finally, the implications of these results for global population forecasts is discussed.

  13. Long-term projections of national, regional, and state population

    SciTech Connect

    McDonald, J.F.; South, D.W.

    1986-07-01

    The projections prepared by the US Bureau of the Census are the best available projections of total US population. The DRI projections of population at the regional and state level to the year 2008 are the best available and are consistent with the US Bureau of the Census projections of total US population. The DRI regional and state projections can be extended from 2008 to 2030 with a simple model based on economic opportunity, although an even simpler model - constant shares - is used for the 1985 test runs. The US Bureau of the Census prepares the best available projections of the US age-sex distribution.

  14. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study Daniel P. Costa University of California, Santa Cruz 100 Shaffer Rd. Santa Cruz, CA...grant has allowed us to extend and improve a four-decade study of northern elephant seal populations in California, aiming specifically to quantify...in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e

  15. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  16. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

    PubMed Central

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-01-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  17. Analysis of Quantitative Traits in Two Long-Term Randomly Mated Soybean Populations I. Genetic Variances

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations: RSII and RSIII. Population means, variances, and heritabilities were estimated to determine the effects of 26 generations of random...

  18. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of quantitative traits in two long-term randomly mated soybean populations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility (gms) were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations designated: RSII and RSIII. These populations were evaluated in the field at three locations each with two replications. Genot...

  19. Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Simon Robin

    2016-01-01

    It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated. PMID:27058254

  20. Long-term prescribing of antidepressants in the older population: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Dickinson, Rebecca; Knapp, Peter; House, Allan O; Dimri, Vandana; Zermansky, Arnold; Petty, Duncan; Holmes, John; Raynor, David K

    2010-01-01

    Background High rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing have been identified in the older population. Aims To explore the attitudes of older patients and their GPs to taking long-term antidepressant therapy, and their accounts of the influences on long-term antidepressant use. Design of study Qualitative study using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Setting One primary care trust in North Bradford. Method Thirty-six patients aged ≥75 years and 10 GPs were interviewed. Patients were sampled to ensure diversity in age, sex, antidepressant type, and home circumstances. Results Participants perceived significant benefits and expressed little apprehension about taking long-term antidepressants, despite being aware of the psychological and social factors involved in onset and persistence of depression. Barriers to discontinuation were identified following four themes: pessimism about the course and curability of depression; negative expectations and experiences of ageing; medicine discontinuation perceived by patients as a threat to stability; and passive (therapeutic momentum) and active (therapeutic maintenance) decisions to accept the continuing need for medication. Conclusion There is concern at a public health level about high rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing, but no evidence was found of a drive for change either from the patients or the doctors interviewed. Any apprehension was more than balanced by attitudes and behaviours supporting continuation. These findings will need to be incorporated into the planning of interventions aimed at reducing long-term antidepressant prescribing in older people. PMID:20353660

  1. Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

    PubMed Central

    Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

  2. Long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults: a population-based analysis

    PubMed Central

    Weymann, Deirdre; Gladstone, Emilie J.; Smolina, Kate; Morgan, Steven G.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Chronic use of benzodiazepines and benzodiazepine-like sedatives (z-drugs) presents substantial risks to people of all ages. We sought to assess trends in long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults in British Columbia. Methods: Using population-based linked administrative databases, we examined longitudinal trends in age-standardized rates of sedative use among different age groups of community-dwelling adults (age ≥ 18 yr), from 2004 to 2013. For each calendar year, we classified adults as nonusers, short-term users, or long-term users of sedatives based on their patterns of sedative dispensation. For calendar year 2013, we applied cross-sectional analysis and estimated logistic regression models to identify health and socioeconomic risk factors associated with long-term sedative use. Results: More than half (53.4%) of long-term users of sedatives in British Columbia are between ages 18 and 64 years (young and middle-aged adults). From 2004 to 2013, long-term sedative use remained stable among adults more than 65 years of age (older adults) and increased slightly among young and middle-aged adults. Although the use of benzodiazepines decreased during the study period, the trend was offset by equal or greater increases in long-term use of z-drugs. Being an older adult, sick, poor and single were associated with increased odds of long-term sedative use. Interpretation: Despite efforts to stem such patterns of medication use, long-term use of sedatives increased in British Columbia between 2004 and 2013. This increase was driven largely by increased use among middle-aged adults. Future deprescribing efforts that target adults of all ages may help curb this trend.

  3. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  4. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  5. Long-term benefits of full-day kindergarten: a longitudinal population-based study.

    PubMed

    Brownell, M D; Nickel, N C; Chateau, D; Martens, P J; Taylor, C; Crockett, L; Katz, A; Sarkar, J; Burland, E; Goh, C Y

    2015-02-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were compared between FDK and half-day kindergarten (HDK) students in both targeted and universal FDK programmes. Propensity score matched cohort and stepped-wedge designs allowed for stronger causal inferences than previous research on FDK. We found limited long-term benefits of FDK, specific to the type of programme, outcomes examined, and subpopulations. FDK programmes targeted at low-income areas showed long-term improvements in numeracy for lower income girls. Our results suggest that expectations for wide-ranging long-term academic benefits of FDK are unwarranted.

  6. Insights into population ecology from long-term studies of red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Padilla, Jesus; Redpath, Steve M; Zeineddine, Mohammed; Mougeot, François

    2014-01-01

    Long-term studies have been the backbone of population ecology. The red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus is one species that has contributed widely to this field since the 1950s. This paper reviews the trajectory and profound impact that these studies have had. Red grouse research has combined long-term studies of marked individuals with demographic studies over wide geographical areas and replicated individual- and population-level manipulations. A main focus has been on understanding the causes of population cycles in red grouse, and in particular the relative importance of intrinsic (behaviour) and extrinsic (climate, food limitation and parasite) mechanisms. Separate studies conducted in different regions initially proposed either the nematode parasite Trichostrongylus tenuis or changes in male aggressiveness in autumn as drivers of population cycles. More recent experiments suggest that parasites are not a necessary cause for cycles and have highlighted that behavioural and parasite-mediated mechanisms are interrelated. Long-term experiments show that parasites and aggressiveness interact. Two outstanding questions remain to be tested experimentally. First, what intrinsic mechanism causes temporal variation in patterns of male aggressiveness? The current favoured mechanism is related to patterns of kin structuring although there are alternative hypotheses. Second, how do the dual, interacting mechanisms, affect population dynamics? Red grouse studies have had an important impact on the field of population ecology, in particular through highlighting: (1) the impact of parasites on populations; (2) the role of intrinsic mechanisms in cyclic dynamics and (3) the need to consider multiple, interacting mechanisms.

  7. Individual specialists in a generalist population: results from a long-term stable isotope series

    PubMed Central

    Vander Zanden, Hannah B.; Bjorndal, Karen A.; Reich, Kimberly J.; Bolten, Alan B.

    2010-01-01

    Individual variation in resource use has often been ignored in ecological studies, but closer examination of individual patterns through time may reveal significant intrapopulation differences. Adult loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) are generalist carnivores with a wide geographical range, resulting in a broad isotopic niche. We microsampled scute, a persistent and continuously growing tissue, to examine long-term variation in resource use (up to 12 years) in 15 nesting loggerhead turtles. Using stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon, we examined the resource use patterns (integration of diet, habitat and geographical location) and demonstrate that individual loggerheads are long-term specialists within a generalist population. We present our results in the context of a conceptual model comparing isotopic niches in specialist and generalist populations. Individual consistency may have important ecological, evolutionary and conservation consequences, such as the reduction of intraspecific competition. PMID:20335202

  8. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    of transfer functions which describe how behavioral responses to sound affect life functions, how life functions are linked to vital population...Resource Sound Research Requirements, specifically within the “Response to Naval Sounds ” requirement #5: Determine biologically significant behavioral...responses from Navy sound sources on individuals representing marine mammal species of concern with respect to ... determining long-term effects of

  9. A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojković, Milan; Kostić, Srđan; Plavšić, Jasna; Prohaska, Stevan

    2017-01-01

    The authors present a detailed procedure for modelling of mean monthly flow time-series using records of the Great Morava River (Serbia). The proposed procedure overcomes a major challenge of other available methods by disaggregating the time series in order to capture the main properties of the hydrologic process in both long-run and short-run. The main assumption of the conducted research is that a time series of monthly flow rates represents a stochastic process comprised of deterministic, stochastic and random components, the former of which can be further decomposed into a composite trend and two periodic components (short-term or seasonal periodicity and long-term or multi-annual periodicity). In the present paper, the deterministic component of a monthly flow time-series is assessed by spectral analysis, whereas its stochastic component is modelled using cross-correlation transfer functions, artificial neural networks and polynomial regression. The results suggest that the deterministic component can be expressed solely as a function of time, whereas the stochastic component changes as a nonlinear function of climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). For the calibration period, the results of the analysis infers a lower value of Kling-Gupta Efficiency in the case of transfer functions (0.736), whereas artificial neural networks and polynomial regression suggest a significantly better match between the observed and simulated values, 0.841 and 0.891, respectively. It seems that transfer functions fail to capture high monthly flow rates, whereas the model based on polynomial regression reproduces high monthly flows much better because it is able to successfully capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the inputs and the output. The proposed methodology that uses a combination of artificial neural networks, spectral analysis and polynomial regression for deterministic and stochastic components can be applied to forecast monthly or seasonal flow rates.

  10. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  11. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  12. Asymptomatic Cardiac Toxicity in Long-Term Cancer Survivors: Defining the Population and Recommendations for Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Carver, Joseph R.; Szalda, Dava; Ky, Bonnie

    2013-01-01

    Advances in the treatment of pediatric and adult cancer have reduced the mortality rates from these disorders and have led to an ever-increasing population of long-term survivors. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy may cause premature cardiac disease that may be asymptomatic or symptomatic. All patients exposed to chemotherapy with cardiotoxic potential or chest radiotherapy have stage A heart failure and the goal of surveillance and treatment is to prevent progression to stages B-D. Screening strategies, including the use of biomarkers, echocardiography, and expert opinion surveillance and treatment recommendations, are presented. PMID:23540748

  13. The Effects of Landscape Modifications on the Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Forbes, Valery E.; Topping, Christopher J.

    2010-01-01

    Background The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes

  14. Modelling long-term ecotoxicological effects on an algal population under dynamic nutrient stress.

    PubMed

    Bontje, D; Kooi, B W; Liebig, M; Kooijman, S A L M

    2009-07-01

    We study the effects of toxicants on the functioning of phototrophic unicellular organism (an algae) in a simple aquatic microcosm by applying a parameter-sparse model. The model allows us to study the interaction between ecological and toxicological effects. Nutrient stress and toxicant stress, together or alone, can cause extinction of the algal population. The modelled algae consume dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) under surplus light and use it for growth and maintenance. Dead algal biomass is mineralized by bacterial activity, leading to nutrient recycling. The ecological model is coupled with a toxicity-module that describes the dependency of the algal growth and death rate on the toxicant concentration. Model parameter fitting is performed on experimental data from Liebig, M., Schmidt, G., Bontje, D., Kooi, B.W., Streck, G., Traunspurger, W., Knacker, T. [2008. Direct and indirect effects of pollutants on algae and algivorous ciliates in an aquatic indoor microcosm. Aquatic Toxicology 88, 102-110]. These experiments were especially designed to include nutrient limitation, nutrient recycling and long-term exposure to toxicants. The flagellate species Cryptomonas sp. was exposed to the herbicide prometryn and insecticide methyl parathion in semi-closed Erlenmeyers. Given the total limiting amount of nitrogen in the system, the estimated toxicant concentration at which a long-term steady population of algae goes extinct will be derived. We intend to use the results of this study to investigate the effects of ecological (environmental) and toxicological stresses on more realistic ecosystem structure and functioning.

  15. Temporal Population Genetics of Time Travelling Insects: A Long Term Study in a Seed-Specialized Wasp

    PubMed Central

    Lefèvre, François; Candau, Jean-Noël; Chalon, Alain; Boivin, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Many animal species experiencing spatial or interannual fluctuations of their environment are capable of prolonged diapause, a kind of dormancy that extends over more than one year. Such a prolonged diapause is commonly perceived as a temporal demographic refuge in stochastic environments, but empirical evidence is still lacking of its consequences on temporal population genetic structures. In this long-term study, we investigated how a particular pattern of prolonged diapause may influence the temporal population genetics of the invasive seed-specialized wasp Megastigmus schimitscheki (Hymenoptera: Torymidae) in southeastern France. We characterized the diapause strategy of M. schimitscheki using records of emergence from diapause in 97 larval cohorts, and we conducted a temporal population genetic study on a natural invasive wasp population sampled during ten consecutive years (1999–2008) using polymorphic microsatellite markers. We found that M. schimitscheki can undergo a prolonged diapause of up to five years and displays two main adult emergence peaks after two and four years of diapause. Such a bimodal and atypical pattern did not disrupt temporal gene flow between cohorts produced in even and in odd years during the period of the study. Unexpectedly, we found that this wasp population consisted of two distinct genetic sub-populations that strongly diverged in their diapause strategies, with very few admixed individuals. One of the sub-populations displayed both short and prolonged diapause (2 and 4 years respectively) in equal proportions, whereas the other sub-population displayed mainly short diapause. This study provided empirical evidence that prolonged diapause phenotypes can substantially contribute to reproduction and impact temporal genetic structures. Prolonged diapause is likely to act as both demographic and genetic refuges for insect populations living in fluctuating environments. PMID:23936470

  16. Introduction. Evolutionary dynamics of wild populations: the use of long-term pedigree data.

    PubMed

    Kruuk, L E B; Hill, W G

    2008-03-22

    Studies of populations in the wild can provide unique insights into the forces driving evolutionary dynamics. This themed issue of Proc. R. Soc. B focuses on new developments in long-term analyses of animal populations where pedigree information has been collected. These address fundamental questions in evolutionary biology concerning the genetic basis of phenotypic diversity, patterns of natural and sexual selection, the occurrence of inbreeding and inbreeding depression, and speciation. Contributions include the analysis of evolutionary responses to climate change, exploration of the genetic basis of senescence, the exploitation of advances in molecular genetic technology, and reviews of developments in quantitative genetic methodology. We discuss here common themes, specific problems and pointers for future research.

  17. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  18. SY 04-2 LONG-TERM CVD RISK PREDICTION IN LOW-INCIDENCE EUROPEAN POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    In Italy, the European SCORE Project risk score is the recommended tool for cardiovascular disease risk stratification in the primary prevention setting. Among non-diabetic subjects aged 40 to 64, the model estimates the 10-year probability of death due to cardiovascular disease based on individual's age, total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking status. A growing body of evidence suggests that in middle-aged adults this stratification may suffer from two major drawbacks. First, mortality risk severely underestimates the global burden of disease incidence. Second, younger individuals and women are likely to be classified in the "low 10-year risk" category despite the presence of risk factors.The latest European and American guidelines have eventually introduced the assessment of long-term risk of disease as additional tool to improve risk communication and increase risk awareness. Long-term risk scores were first developed in the US and in the UK, i.e. in high-risk populations. In low-incidence populations, these models may have poor calibration and discrimination ability, as shown for the Framingham equation. Therefore, our research team developed and validated a 20-year risk score for the Italian population. As part of a collaborative study with the Italian Health Institute, we pooled 7 population-based cohorts of middle-aged individuals recruited in Northern and in Central Italy in mid 1980 s and early 1990 s following a similar protocol with standardized MONICA procedures. Overall, more than 10500 men and women 35-69 years old and free of CVD at baseline, who developed 830 first major atherosclerotic events (coronary heart disease or ischemic strokes) during a median 17 years of follow-up. The score was based on traditional risk factors (age, blood lipids, systolic blood pressure and treatment, smoking and diabetes). In addition, social status and family history of coronary heart disease did improve risk prediction, at least in men. Finally we showed

  19. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  20. Influence of melanin on mutation load in Drosophila populations after long-term irradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Mosse, I.B.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1994-09-01

    The effect of melanin on the level of mutation load has been studied in experimental Drosophila populations exposed to radiation for 115 generations. Four types of populations have been analyzed: (1) control; (2) treated with melanin; (3) irradiated; (4) irradiated and treated with melanin. Melanin was produced by auto-oxidation of 1-dioxyphenylallanine and was constantly added to food. Populations were X-irradiated twice in each generation (at the larvae stage with 6 Gy and at the imago stage with 9 Gy). The level of recessive mutation on the third chromosome was analyzed by a standard genetic method of balanced lethals. The data obtained have shown that the populations exposed to long-term irradiation have the greatest number of mutations decreasing viability. Melanin exhibited radioprotective properties-it reduced the percentage of lethal, semilethal and subvital mutations. Thus the possibility of effective protection of populations exposed to radiation for many generations by melanin has been shown for the first time. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  1. Standardizing flow cytometric assays in long-term population-based studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melzer, Susanne; Bocsi, Jozsef; Tárnok, Attila

    2015-03-01

    Quantification of leukocyte subpopulations and characterization of antigen-expression pattern on the cellular surface can play an important role in diagnostics. The state of cellular immunology on the single-cell level was analyzed by polychromatic flow cytometry in a recent comparative study within the average Leipzig population (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases). Data of 1699 subjects were recorded over a long-time period of three years (in a total of 1126 days). To ensure compatibility of such huge data sets, quality-controls on many levels (stability of instrumentation, low intra-laboratory variance and reader independent data analysis) are essential. The LIFE study aims to analyze various cytometric pattern to reveal the relationship between the life-style, the environmental effects and the individual health. We therefore present here a multi-step quality control procedure for long-term comparative studies.

  2. [The process of bacterial population splitting into dissociants and long-term batch cultivation of bacteria].

    PubMed

    Mil'ko, E S; Mil'ko, D M

    2014-01-01

    The growth and composition of a population were studied during long-term (up to 50 days) batch cultivation of mono and mixed cultures of Pseudomonas aeruginosa S- and M-dissociants and Rhodobacter sphaeroides R- and M-dissociants without the addition of nutrients. During the cultivation of P. aeruginosa on a glucose-containing mineral medium, periodic lysis followed by polyculture growth resumption in the late stationary phase occurred on account of the M-dissociant: the change in its cell number corresponded to the change in the total cell number of the association. It was shown that the periodic occurrence of reducing sugars in the medium preceded the resumption ofpolyculture growth.

  3. Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  4. Monitoring of patients on long-term glucocorticoid therapy: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Fardet, Laurence; Petersen, Irene; Nazareth, Irwin

    2015-04-01

    About 1% of the general population receives long-term systemic glucocorticoids. The monitoring provided to these patients is unknown. We conducted a population-based cohort study using The Health Improvement Network database. A total of 100,944 adult patients prescribed systemic glucocorticoids for >3 months between January 2000 and December 2012 were studied. The monitoring done before prescribing glucocorticoid therapy and during exposure to the drug was examined. This included measurement of body weight, blood pressure, lipids, glucose and potassium levels, referrals for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA-scan) or to an ophthalmologist/optician, and vaccinations. We assessed factors associated with the odds of being monitored before and during exposure. Before glucocorticoid initiation, weight and blood pressure were monitored in < 20% and < 50% of patients, respectively. Glucose and lipid levels were monitored in less than one-third of the patients, while DEXA-scan and eye monitoring were offered to <15% of them. Vaccination against flu and pneumococcus was given to 57% and 46% of the patients, respectively. During exposure to the drug, <60% of patients who were prescribed the drug for more than a year had their weight, glucose, or lipid levels recorded at least once and <25% of patients were referred at least once for DEXA-scan or screening for eye diseases. Overall, the odds of being monitored were higher in older patients and in those with comorbidities. There were variations in the level of monitoring provided across the UK, but the monitoring has improved over the last 12 years. Although the extent of monitoring of people on long-term glucocorticoids has improved over time, the overall monitoring provided is not satisfactory, particularly in young patients and those without comorbidities.

  5. Geriatrics and the triple aim: defining preventable hospitalizations in the long-term care population.

    PubMed

    Ouslander, Joseph G; Maslow, Katie

    2012-12-01

    Reducing preventable hospitalizations is fundamental to the "triple aim" of improving care, improving health, and reducing costs. New federal government initiatives that create strong pressure to reduce such hospitalizations are being or will soon be implemented. These initiatives use quality measures to define which hospitalizations are preventable. Reducing hospitalizations could greatly benefit frail and chronically ill adults and older people who receive long-term care (LTC) because they often experience negative effects of hospitalization, including hospital-acquired conditions, morbidity, and loss of functional abilities. Conversely, reducing hospitalizations could mean that some people will not receive hospital care they need, especially if the selected measures do not adequately define hospitalizations that can be prevented without jeopardizing the person's health and safety. An extensive literature search identified 250 measures of preventable hospitalizations, but the measures have not been validated in the LTC population and generally do not account for comorbidity or the capacity of various LTC settings to provide the required care without hospitalization. Additional efforts are needed to develop measures that accurately differentiate preventable from necessary hospitalizations for the LTC population, are transparent and fair to providers, and minimize the potential for gaming and unintended consequences. As the new initiatives take effect, it is critical to monitor their effect and to develop and disseminate training and resources to support the many community- and institution-based healthcare professionals and emergency department staff involved in decisions about hospitalization for this population.

  6. Long-term population dynamics of breeding bird species in the German Wadden Sea area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vauk, Gottfried; Prüter, Johannes; Hartwig, Eike

    1989-09-01

    For no other group of organisms in coastal areas are there so exact and long-term data available as there are for seabirds. Since the beginning of the 20th century, documentation of population size, especially for species breeding in colonies from the groups gulls, terns and auks, is almost complete. These species act as bio-indicators, and data on fluctuations in their population size are useful as they reflect changes in the state of the marine ecosystem. The population development of some of these seabird species (Herring Gull, Guillemot, Common, Arctic and Sandwich Tern) from the German North Sea coast, which primarily feed on fish, is given. Common to all these species is an exponential increase in numbers in recent years (1970 1985). Possible causes for this development, e.g. pressure from enemies or competitors, availability of breeding places, anthropogenic stress and mortality factors, as well as the direct and indirect anthropogenic-influenced changes in the trophic system due to the increasing eutrophication of coastal waters, are evaluated. Signs of a collapse in the stocks of seabrids resulting from environmental pollution are discussed. Consequences resulting from the ecosystem changes, such as reduction of nutrient discharge into the North Sea and the expansion of biological monitoring, are described.

  7. Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils

    PubMed Central

    Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated 13C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing 13C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears

  8. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  9. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Evans, Steven N; Ralph, Peter L; Schreiber, Sebastian J; Sen, Arnab

    2013-02-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZ(t) = μZ(t)dt + σZ(t)dW(t), t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Z(t+Δt)-Z(t) given Z(t) = z has mean and variance approximately z μΔt and z²σ²Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log Z(t) for such a population equals μ − σ²/2 . Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model X(t) = (X¹(t) , . . . , X(n)(t)), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of X(t+Δt) given X(t) = x is such that the conditional mean of X(i)(t+Δt) − X(i)(t) is approximately [x(i)μ(i) + Σ(j) (x(j) D(ji) − x(i) D(i j) )]Δt where μ(i) is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and D(ij) is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of X(i)(t+Δt)− X(i)(t) and X(j)(t+Δt) − X(j)(t) is approximately x(i)x(j)σ(ij)Δt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σ(ij)). We show for such a spatially extended population that if S(t) = X¹(t)+· · ·+ X(n)(t) denotes the total population abundance, then Y(t) = X(t)/S(t), the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y(∞) as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log S(t) equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate Σ(i)μ(i)E[Y(i)(∞)] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation E[Σ(i,j) σ(i j)Y(i)(∞) Y(j)(∞)] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the

  10. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Steven N.; Ralph, Peter L.; Sen, Arnab

    2016-01-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZt = μZtdt + σ ZtdWt, t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Zt+Δt − Zt given Zt = z has mean and variance approximately zμΔt and z2σ2Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log Zt for such a population equals μ−σ22. Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model Xt=(Xt1,…,Xtn), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of Xt+Δt given Xt = x is such that the conditional mean of Xt+Δti−Xti is approximately [xiμi +∑j (xj Dji − xi Dij)]Δt where μi is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and Dij is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of Xt+Δti−Xti and Xt+Δtj−Xtj is approximately xixjσijΔt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σij). We show for such a spatially extended population that if St=Xt1+⋯+Xtn denotes the total population abundance, then Yt = Xt /St, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y∞ as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log St equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate ∑iμi𝔼[Y∞j] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation 𝔼[∑i,jσijY∞iY∞j] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the stochastic growth rate, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic growth rate for populations living in two patches, determine which

  11. Selective harvesting and habitat loss produce long-term life history changes in a mouflon population.

    PubMed

    Garel, Mathieu; Cugnasse, Jean-Marc; Maillard, Daniel; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hewison, A J Mark; Dubray, Dominique

    2007-09-01

    We examined the long-term effects (28 years) of habitat loss and phenotype-based selective harvest on body mass, horn size, and horn shape of mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in southern France. This population has experienced habitat deterioration (loss of 50.8% of open area) since its introduction in 1956 and unrestricted selective hunting of the largest horned males since 1973. Both processes are predicted to lead to a decrease in phenotype quality by decreasing habitat quality and by reducing the reproductive contribution of individuals carrying traits that are targeted by hunters. Body mass and body size of both sexes and horn measurements of males markedly decreased (by 3.4-38.3%) in all age classes from the 1970s. Lamb body mass varied in relation to the spatiotemporal variation of habitat closure within the hunting-free reserve, suggesting that habitat closure explains part of these changes. However, the fact that there was no significant spatial variation in body mass in the early part of the study, when a decline in phenotypic quality already had occurred, provided support for the influence of selective harvesting. We also found that the allometric relationship between horn breadth and horn length changed over the study period. For a given horn length, horn breadth was lower during the second part of the study. This result, as well as changes in horn curve diameter, supports the interpretation that selective harvesting of males based on their horn configuration had evolutionary consequences for horn shape, since this phenotypic trait is less likely to be affected by changes in habitat characteristics. Moreover, males required more time (approximately four years) to develop a desirable trophy, suggesting that trophy hunting favors the reproductive contribution of animals with slow-growing horns. Managers should exploit hunters' desire for trophy males to finance management strategies which ensure a balance between the population and its environment. However

  12. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions.

  13. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  14. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  15. Long-term imaging of circadian locomotor rhythms of a freely crawling C. elegans population

    PubMed Central

    Winbush, Ari; Gruner, Matthew; Hennig, Grant W.; van der Linden, Alexander M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Locomotor activity is used extensively as a behavioral output to study the underpinnings of circadian rhythms. Recent studies have required a populational approach for the study of circadian rhythmicity in Caenorhabditis elegans locomotion. New method We describe an imaging system for long-term automated recording and analysis of locomotion data of multiple free-crawling C. elegans animals on the surface of an agar plate. We devised image analysis tools for measuring specific features related to movement and shape to identify circadian patterns. Results We demonstrate the utility of our system by quantifying circadian locomotor rhythms in wild-type and mutant animals induced by temperature cycles. We show that 13 °C:18 °C (12:12 h) cycles are sufficient to entrain locomotor activity of wild-type animals, which persist but are rapidly damped during 13 °C free-running conditions. Animals with mutations in tax-2, a cyclic nucleotide-gated (CNG) ion channel, significantly reduce locomotor activity during entrainment and free-running. Comparison with existing method(s) Current methods for measuring circadian locomotor activity is generally restricted to recording individual swimming animals of C. elegans, which is a distinct form of locomotion from crawling behavior generally observed in the laboratory. Our system works well with up to 20 crawling adult animals, and allows for a detailed analysis of locomotor activity over long periods of time. Conclusions Our population-based approach provides a powerful tool for quantification of circadian rhythmicity of C. elegans locomotion, and could allow for a screening system of candidate circadian genes in this model organism. PMID:25911068

  16. Long-term air pollution exposure and diabetes in a population-based Swiss cohort.

    PubMed

    Eze, Ikenna C; Schaffner, Emmanuel; Fischer, Evelyn; Schikowski, Tamara; Adam, Martin; Imboden, Medea; Tsai, Ming; Carballo, David; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Künzli, Nino; Schindler, Christian; Probst-Hensch, Nicole

    2014-09-01

    Air pollution is an important risk factor for global burden of disease. There has been recent interest in its possible role in the etiology of diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence is suggestive, but epidemiological evidence is limited and mixed. We therefore explored the association between air pollution and prevalent diabetes, in a population-based Swiss cohort. We did cross-sectional analyses of 6392 participants of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults [SAPALDIA], aged between 29 and 73 years. We used estimates of average individual home outdoor PM10 [particulate matter <10μm in diameter] and NO2 [nitrogen dioxide] exposure over the 10 years preceding the survey. Their association with diabetes was modeled using mixed logistic regression models, including participants' study area as random effect, with incremental adjustment for confounders. There were 315 cases of diabetes (prevalence: 5.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8, 7.2%]). Both PM10 and NO2 were associated with prevalent diabetes with respective odds ratios of 1.40 [95% CI: 1.17, 1.67] and 1.19 [95% CI: 1.03, 1.38] per 10μg/m(3) increase in the average home outdoor level. Associations with PM10 were generally stronger than with NO2, even in the two-pollutant model. There was some indication that beta blockers mitigated the effect of PM10. The associations remained stable across different sensitivity analyses. Our study adds to the evidence that long term air pollution exposure is associated with diabetes mellitus. PM10 appears to be a useful marker of aspects of air pollution relevant for diabetes. This association can be observed at concentrations below air quality guidelines.

  17. Characterization of a Fetal Liver Cell Population Endowed with Long-Term Multiorgan Endothelial Reconstitution Potential.

    PubMed

    Cañete, Ana; Comaills, Valentine; Prados, Isabel; Castro, Ana María; Hammad, Seddik; Ybot-Gonzalez, Patricia; Bockamp, Ernesto; Hengstler, Jan G; Gottgens, Bertie; Sánchez, María José

    2017-02-01

    Stable reconstitution of vascular endothelial beds upon transplantation of progenitor cells represents an important challenge due to the paucity and generally limited integration/expansion potential of most identified vascular related cell subsets. We previously showed that mouse fetal liver (FL) hemato/vascular cells from day 12 of gestation (E12), expressing the Stem Cell Leukaemia (SCL) gene enhancer transgene (SCL-PLAP(+) cells), had robust endothelial engraftment potential when transferred to the blood stream of newborns or adult conditioned recipients, compared to the scarce vascular contribution of adult bone marrow cells. However, the specific SCL-PLAP(+) hematopoietic or endothelial cell subset responsible for the long-term reconstituting endothelial cell (LTR-EC) activity and its confinement to FL developmental stages remained unknown. Using a busulfan-treated newborn transplantation model, we show that LTR-EC activity is restricted to the SCL-PLAP(+) VE-cadherin(+) CD45(-) cell population, devoid of hematopoietic reconstitution activity and largely composed by Lyve1(+) endothelial-committed cells. SCL-PLAP(+) Ve-cadherin(+) CD45(-) cells contributed to the liver sinusoidal endothelium and also to the heart, kidney and lung microvasculature. LTR-EC activity was detected at different stages of FL development, yet marginal activity was identified in the adult liver, revealing unknown functional differences between fetal and adult liver endothelial/endothelial progenitors. Importantly, the observations that expanding donor-derived vascular grafts colocalize with proliferating hepatocyte-like cells and participate in the systemic circulation, support their functional integration into young livers. These findings offer new insights into the engraftment, phonotypical, and developmental characterization of a novel endothelial/endothelial progenitor cell subtype with multiorgan LTR-EC activity, potentially instrumental for the treatment/genetic correction of

  18. Long-term effects of salt substitution on blood pressure in a rural north Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhou, B; Wang, H-L; Wang, W-L; Wu, X-M; Fu, L-Y; Shi, J-P

    2013-07-01

    Dietary sodium and potassium intake can influence blood pressure. The effects of salt substitution on patients with hypertension and normotensive family member controls, however, have not been evaluated in a rural Chinese population. The objective of this study, accordingly, was to assess the long-term effects of salt substitution on blood pressure. We conducted a double-blind, randomized controlled trial among 200 families in rural China to establish the 2-year effects of a reduced-sodium, high-potassium salt substitute (65% sodium chloride, 25% potassium chloride, 10% magnesium sulfate) compared with normal salt (100% sodium chloride) on blood pressure. Of the 462 individuals in the trial, 372 completed the study (81%). For normotensive subjects, the mean overall difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure between the two groups at the 24-month follow-up was 2 mm Hg (95% confidence interval (CI) 0-4 mm Hg, P<0.05) and 2 mm Hg (95% CI 1-3 mm Hg, P<0.05), respectively. For subjects with hypertension, the mean overall decrease in systolic blood pressure showed a 4-mm Hg (95% CI 2-6 mm Hg, P<0.05) decrease between the two groups. Diastolic blood pressure was not affected by salt use in the hypertensive group. Salt substitution lowers systolic blood pressure in hypertensive patients and lowers both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in normotensive controls. Salt substitution, therefore, may be an effective adjuvant therapy for hypertensive patients and the potential efficacy in preventing hypertension in normotensive individuals.

  19. Long-term population monitoring: Lessons learned from an endangered passerine in Hawai‘i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Luanne; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

    2006-01-01

    interpretation were regeneration of trees in response to reduced numbers of introduced browsing mammals, seasonally variable rates of vocalization, non-territoriality, and resource-tracking along an elevation gradient. We believe our adaptive approach to analysis and interpretation of 25 years of annual variable circular plot data could help guide similar long-term monitoring efforts.

  20. The CD44+ALDH+ Population of Human Keratinocytes Is Enriched for Epidermal Stem Cells with Long-Term Repopulating Ability

    PubMed Central

    Szabo, Akos Z.; Fong, Stephen; Yue, Lili; Zhang, Kai; Strachan, Lauren R.; Scalapino, Kenneth; Mancianti, Maria Laura; Ghadially, Ruby

    2014-01-01

    Like for other somatic tissues, isolation of a pure population of stem cells has been a primary goal in epidermal biology. We isolated discrete populations of freshly obtained human neonatal keratinocytes (HNKs) using previously untested candidate stem cell markers aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) and CD44 as well as the previously studied combination of integrin α6 and CD71. An in vivo transplantation assay combined with limiting dilution analysis was used to quantify enrichment for long-term repopulating cells in the isolated populations. The ALDH+CD44+ population was enriched 12.6-fold for long-term repopulating epidermal stem cells (EpiSCs) and the integrin α6hiCD71lo population was enriched 5.6-fold, over unfractionated cells. In addition to long-term repopulation, CD44+ALDH+ keratinocytes exhibited other stem cell properties. CD44+ALDH+ keratinocytes had self-renewal ability, demonstrated by increased numbers of cells expressing nuclear Bmi-1, serial transplantation of CD44+ALDH+ cells, and holoclone formation in vitro. CD44+ALDH+ cells were multipotent, producing greater numbers of hair follicle-like structures than CD44−ALDH− cells. Furthermore, 58% ± 7% of CD44+ALDH+ cells exhibited label-retention. In vitro, CD44+ALDH+ cells showed enhanced colony formation, in both keratinocyte and embryonic stem cell growth media. In summary, the CD44+ALDH+ population exhibits stem cell properties including long-term epidermal regeneration, multipotency, label retention, and holoclone formation. This study shows that it is possible to quantify the relative number of EpiSCs in human keratinocyte populations using long-term repopulation as a functional test of stem cell nature. Future studies will combine isolation strategies as dictated by the results of quantitative transplantation assays, in order to achieve a nearly pure population of EpiSCs. PMID:23335266

  1. Tibial stress fractures in an active duty population: long-term outcomes.

    PubMed

    Kilcoyne, Kelly G; Dickens, Jonathan F; Rue, John-Paul

    2013-01-01

    Tibial stress fractures are a common overuse injury among military recruits. The purpose of this study was to determine what, if any, long-term effects that tibial stress fractures have on military personnel with respect to physical activity level, completion of military training, recurrence of symptoms, and active duty service. Twenty-six military recruits included in a previous tibial stress fracture study were contacted 10 years after initial injury and asked a series of questions related to any long-term consequences of their tibial stress fracture. Of the 13 patients available for contact, no patients reported any necessary limited duty while on active duty, and no patient reported being separated or discharged from the military as a result of stress fracture. Tibial stress fractures in military recruits are most often an isolated injury and do not affect ability to complete military training or reflect a long-term need for decreased physical activity.

  2. Importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on the long-term boreal forest dynamics in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuosmanen, Niina; Seppä, Heikki; Alenius, Teija; Bradshaw, Richard; Clear, Jennifer; Filimonova, Fludmila; Heikkilä, Maija; Renssen, Hans; Tallavaara, Miikka; Reitalu, Triin

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoecological data provides valuable information for understanding the processes behind the past changes in forest composition, and hence can provide important knowledge regarding the potential effects of future changes in climate on boreal vegetation. Furthermore, it is essential to consider both regional and local factors in order to better understand the processes behind the boreal forest dynamics. The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. Statistical method variation partitioning was employed to assess the relative importance of these three variables. Fossil pollen data reflecting long-term boreal forest composition, at both regional (lake records) and local (small hollow records) scales from Russia, Finland and Sweden, were used as response matrix. Climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings were used as potential drivers of long-term boreal vegetation. Though the results clearly demonstrate that climate is the main driver of long-term vegetation changes at the regional scale, the role of climate notably is smaller at local scale and the influence of local site specific factors increases. However, the relative importance of forest fires on long-term changes in boreal forest composition remain generally low both at regional and local scale. The relatively low importance of both climate and forest fires on the variation in long-term boreal forest composition at local scale demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. In general, the relative importance of human population size on long-term changes in boreal vegetation was low. However, this was the first time that this type of human population size data was statistically

  3. The Population Impact of Long-term Use of Aspirin and Risk of Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Yin; Nishihara, Reiko; Wu, Kana; Wang, Molin; Ogino, Shuji; Willett, Walter C.; Spiegelman, Donna; Fuchs, Charles S.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2016-01-01

    Importance The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended the use of aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease among many U.S adults. However, the association of aspirin on risk of other cancer types, and aspirin’s potential population-wide impact on cancer, particularly within the context of screening, remain uncertain. Objective To examine potential benefits of aspirin use for overall and subtype-specific cancer prevention, at a range of doses and duration of use, and estimate the absolute benefit of aspirin in the context of screening. Design Two large prospective cohort studies: the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980–2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986–2012). Setting Health professionals in the United States Participants 88,084 women and 47,881 men participating in the NHS and HPFS who reported aspirin use biennially. Main Outcome Measures Relative risks (RRs) for incident cancers and population attributable risk (PAR). Results During up to 32 years of follow-up, we documented 20,414 cancers among women and 7,571 among men. Compared with nonregular use, regular aspirin use was associated with lower risk of overall cancer (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99), which was primarily due to a lower incidence of gastrointestinal cancers (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80, 0.91), especially colorectal cancers (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.75, 0.88). The benefit of aspirin on gastrointestinal cancers appeared evident with use of at least 0.5 to 1.5 standard aspirin tablets per week; the minimum duration of regular use associated with lower risk was 6 years. Among individuals aged over 50, regular aspirin use could prevent 33 colorectal cancers (PAR 17.0%) among those who have not undergone a lower endoscopy and 18 colorectal cancers per 100,000 person-years (PAR 8.5%) among those who have. Regular aspirin use was not associated with risk of breast, advanced prostate, or lung cancer. Conclusions and Relevance Long-term aspirin use was

  4. Orthostatic Hypotension and the Long-Term Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolters, Frank J.; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U. S.; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M. Arfan

    2016-01-01

    .00–1.17, p = 0.06). The risk of dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04–1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent. Conclusions In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia. PMID:27727284

  5. Changes in microbial populations of WPC34 and WPC80 whey protein during long term storage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The use of whey protein (WPC34 and WPC80) as a food ingredient and as a base for making biodegradable products is increasing. The need to alleviate world hunger in arid and semi-arid regions demands that we investigate the behavior of native bacteria in these products, especially during long term st...

  6. Burn injury and long-term nervous system morbidity: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Vetrichevvel, Thirthar P; Randall, Sean M; Fear, Mark W; Wood, Fiona M; Boyd, James H; Duke, Janine M

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate if children and adults who are hospitalised for a burn injury have increased long-term hospital use for nervous system diseases. Design A population-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative health data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Participants Records of 30 997 persons hospitalised for a first burn injury in Western Australia during the period 1980–2012, and 123 399 persons who were age and gender frequency matched with no injury admissions randomly selected from Western Australia's birth registrations and electoral roll. Main outcome measures Admission rates and summed length of stay for nervous system diseases. Negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling were used to generate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and HRs with 95% CIs, respectively. Results After adjustment for demographic factors and pre-existing health status, the burn injury cohort had 2.20 times (95% CI 1.86 to 2.61) as many nervous system admissions and 3.25 times the number of days in hospital (95% CI: 2.28 to 4.64) than the uninjured cohort. This increase was found for those who had sustained burns during childhood (<15 years: IRR, 95% CI: 1.97, 1.49 to 2.61) and early to mid-adulthood (15–45 years: IRR, 95% CI: 2.70, 2.06 to 3.55) and older adults (≥45 years: IRR, 95% CI: 1.62, 1.33 to 1.97). Significantly elevated first-time postburn admissions were observed for children for 15 years postburn discharge (0–5 years: HR, 95% CI: 1.97, 1.75 to 2.22; 5–15 years: HR, 95% CI: 1.44, 1.28 to 1.63) and for adults 45 years and older at index burn for 5 years postburn only (HR, 95% CI: 1.72, 1.42 to 2.09). Conclusions Burn injury appears to be associated with increased nervous system-related morbidity for many years after burn injury. Further work into the mechanisms and possible treatments to reduce this morbidity are warranted in light of these findings. PMID:27609857

  7. Long-term e-cigarette use and smoking cessation: a longitudinal study with US population

    PubMed Central

    Zhuang, Yue-Lin; Cummins, Sharon E; Y Sun, Jessica; Zhu, Shu-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Background E-cigarettes have grown popular. The most common pattern is dual use with conventional cigarettes. Dual use has raised concerns that it might delay quitting of cigarette smoking. This study examined the relationship between long-term use of e-cigarettes and smoking cessation in a 2-year period. Methods A nationally representative sample of 2028 US smokers were surveyed in 2012 and 2014. Long-term e-cigarette use was defined as using e-cigarettes at baseline and follow-up. Use of e-cigarettes only at baseline or at follow-up was defined as short-term use. Non-users did not use e-cigarettes at either survey. Quit attempt rates and cessation rates (abstinent for 3 months or longer) were compared across the three groups. Results At 2-year follow-up, 43.7% of baseline dual users were still using e-cigarettes. Long-term e-cigarette users had a higher quit attempt rate than short-term or non-users (72.6% vs 53.8% and 45.5%, respectively), and a higher cessation rate (42.4% vs 14.2% and 15.6%, respectively). The difference in cessation rate between long-term users and non-users remained significant after adjusting for baseline variables, OR=4.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 11.4) as did the difference between long-term users and short-term users, OR=4.8 (95% CI 1.6 to 13.9). The difference in cessation rate between short-term users and non-users was not significant, OR=0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.4). Among those making a quit attempt, use of e-cigarettes as a cessation aid surpassed that of FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. Conclusions Short-term e-cigarette use was not associated with a lower rate of smoking cessation. Long-term use of e-cigarettes was associated with a higher rate of quitting smoking. PMID:27697953

  8. Individual variation in behavioural responsiveness to humans leads to differences in breeding success and long-term population phenotypic changes.

    PubMed

    Arroyo, Beatriz; Mougeot, François; Bretagnolle, Vincent

    2017-03-01

    Whether human disturbance can lead to directional selection and phenotypic change in behaviour in species with limited behavioural plasticity is poorly understood in wild animal populations. Using a 19-year study on Montagu's harrier, we report a long-term increase in boldness towards humans during nest visits. The probability of females fleeing or being passive during nest visits decreased, while defence intensity steadily increased over the study period. These behavioural responses towards humans were significantly repeatable. The phenotypic composition of the breeding population changed throughout the study period (4-5 harrier generations), with a gradual disappearance of shy individuals, leading to a greater proportion of bolder ones and a more behaviourally homogeneous population. We further show that nest visit frequency increased nest failure probability and reduced productivity of shy females, but not of bold ones. Long-term research or conservation programmes needing nest visits can therefore lead to subtle but relevant population compositional changes that require further attention.

  9. Group therapy with WWII ex-POW's: long-term posttraumatic adjustment in a geriatric population.

    PubMed

    Boehnlein, J K; Sparr, L F

    1993-01-01

    In this assessment of group therapy with WWII ex-POWs, the small cohort limits generalizations; however, we offer a longitudinal perspective on group process. Posttraumatic suppression and denial of emotions appears to be adaptive for time-limited periods but is not a long-term solution. More lasting changes in self-esteem and social interaction may be partially achieved through a supportive group environment that fosters cognitive synthesis and reorganization.

  10. [Long-Term Care Preferences Among Individuals of Advanced Age in Germany: Results of a Population-Based Study].

    PubMed

    Hajek, André; Lehnert, Thomas; Wegener, Annemarie; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

    2017-03-07

    The need for long-term care is expected to increase markedly in the next decades as a result of demographic ageing. Consequently, it is important to know the long-term care preferences. This study investigated the long-term care preferences among older individuals in Germany. Based on a systematic review and expert interviews, a questionnaire was designed to assess long-term care preferences. Data were gathered from a representative telephone survey of the German population (n=1,006; 65 years and above) in 2015. The mean age was 75.2 years (±6.6 years, ranging from 65 to 96 years). While nearly 90% of the individuals preferred home care, other care settings such as nursing care abroad were mostly undesired. In case of home care, most of the individuals preferred care provided by friends/family or formal caregivers, whereas the idea of all-day care services (such as employed private caregivers) was less popular. With respect to home care, additional services such as household assistance, transportation services, and emergency call systems were highly valued by the study participants, whereas continual supervision throughout the day was seen as less important. In case of inpatient care, more than 90% of the individuals preferred a private room, with the inpatient facility located near home or close to relatives' homes. A wide range of activities was appreciated. Given these preferences, it is assumed that there is a gap between expectations (preferences) and reality (utilization) regarding long-term care in Germany. Interventions aimed at minimizing this gap are urgently needed. For example, strategies to raise the awareness of private long-term care provision might be fruitful.

  11. Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

    PubMed

    Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

    2013-01-01

    Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

  12. Bowel, Urinary, and Sexual Problems Among Long-Term Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Mols, Floortje Korfage, Ida J.; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Kil, Paul J.M.; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain insight into the long-term (5- to 10-year) effects of prostate cancer and treatment on bowel, urinary, and sexual function, we performed a population-based study. Prostate-specific function was compared with an age-matched normative population without prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Through the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry, we selected all men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1994 and 1998 in the southern Netherlands. In total, 964 patients, alive in November 2004, received questionnaire; 780 (81%) responded. Results: Urinary problems were most common after a prostatectomy; bowel problems were most common after radiotherapy. Compared with an age-matched normative population both urinary and bowel functioning and bother were significantly worse among survivors. Urinary incontinence was reported by 23-48% of survivors compared with 4% of the normative population. Bowel leakage occurred in 5-14% of patients compared with 2% of norms. Erection problems occurred in 40-74% of patients compared with 18% of norms. Conclusions: These results form an important contribution to the limited information available on prostate-specific problems in the growing group of long-term prostate cancer survivors. Bowel, urinary, and sexual problems occur more often among long-term survivors compared with a reference group and cannot be explained merely by age. Because these problems persist for many years, urologists should provide patients with adequate information before treatment. After treatment, there should be an appropriate focus on these problems.

  13. Venom analysis of long-term captive Pakistan cobra (Naja naja) populations.

    PubMed

    Modahl, Cassandra M; Doley, Robin; Kini, R Manjunatha

    2010-01-01

    Venom production facilities keep established colonies of captive snakes to obtain venom for research and antiserum production. Due to strict regulations of importation, some of these colonies are formed with only a small number of initial animals and consist of closely related individuals (sometimes siblings). To understand the effect of long-term captivity on the venom composition and its impact on antiserum production, we analyzed 15 long-term captive Naja naja (Pakistan) originating from two separate venom production colonies using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and electrophoresis. The chromatogram produced from each individual cobra venom was found to be different. When the protein molecular masses of the peaks were identified, it was found that all the venoms consisted of the same protein composition, but the concentration of the proteins were different. Although three-finger toxins and phospholipase A(2) enzymes are the major toxic components present in these venoms, there was a clear difference in the amounts of each individual isoform. Such variation may affect the ability of antivenoms in neutralizing the toxic components of the wild type venom.

  14. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-07-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses.

  15. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  16. Long-term economic consequences of child maltreatment: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Thielen, Frederick W; Ten Have, Margreet; de Graaf, Ron; Cuijpers, Pim; Beekman, Aartjan; Evers, Silvia; Smit, Filip

    2016-12-01

    Child maltreatment is prognostically associated with long-term detrimental consequences for mental health. These consequences are reflected in higher costs due to health service utilization and productivity losses in adulthood. An above-average sense of mastery can have protective effects in the pathogenesis of mental disorders and thus potentially cushion adverse impacts of maltreatment. This should be reflected in lower costs in individuals with a history of child maltreatment and a high sense of mastery. The aims of the study were to prognostically estimate the excess costs of health service uptake and productivity losses in adults with a history of child maltreatment and to evaluate how mastery may act as an effect modifier. Data were used on 5618 individuals participating in the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We focussed on measures of child maltreatment (emotional neglect, physical, psychological and sexual abuse) and economic costs owing to health-care uptake and productivity losses when people with a history of abuse have grown into adulthood. We evaluated how mastery acted as an effect modifier. Estimates were adjusted for demographics and parental psychopathology. Post-stratification weights were used to account for initial non-response and dropout. Due to the non-normal distribution of the costs data, sample errors, 95 % confidence intervals, and p values were calculated using non-parametric bootstrapping (1000 replications). Exposure to child maltreatment occurs frequently (6.9-24.8 %) and is associated with substantial excess costs in adulthood. To illustrate, adjusted annual excess costs attributable to emotional neglect are €1,360 (95 % CI: 615-215) per adult. Mastery showed a significant effect on these figures: annual costs were €1,608 in those with a low sense of mastery, but only €474 in those with a firmer sense of mastery. Child maltreatment has profound mental health consequences and is associated with

  17. China’s Rapidly Aging Population Creates Policy Challenges In Shaping A Viable Long-Term Care System

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Zhanlian; Liu, Chang; Guan, Xinping; Mor, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    In China, formal long-term care services for the large aging population have increased to meet escalating demands as demographic shifts and socioeconomic changes have eroded traditional elder care. We analyze China’s evolving long-term care landscape and trace major government policies and private-sector initiatives shaping it. Although home and community-based services remain spotty, institutional care is booming with little regulatory oversight. Chinese policy makers face mounting challenges overseeing the rapidly growing residential care sector, given the tension arising from policy inducements to further institutional growth, a weak regulatory framework, and the lack of enforcement capacity. We recommend addressing the following pressing policy issues: building a balanced system of services and avoiding an “institutional bias” that promotes rapid growth of elder care institutions over home or community-based care; strengthening regulatory oversight and quality assurance with information systems; and prioritizing education and training initiatives to grow a professionalized long-term care workforce. PMID:23213161

  18. Short and long term neuro-behavioral alterations in type 1 diabetes mellitus pediatric population

    PubMed Central

    Litmanovitch, Edna; Geva, Ronny; Rachmiel, Marianna

    2015-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions affecting individuals under the age of 18 years, with increasing incidence worldwide, especially among very young age groups, younger than 5. There is still no cure for the disease, and therapeutic goals and guidelines are a challenge. Currently, despite T1DM intensive management and technological interventions in therapy, the majority of pediatric patients do not achieve glycemic control goals. This leads to a potential prognosis of long term diabetic complications, nephrological, cardiac, ophthalmological and neurological. Unfortunately, the neurological manifestations, including neurocognitive and behavioral complications, may present soon after disease onset, during childhood and adolescence. These manifestations may be prominent, but at times subtle, thus they are often not reported by patients or physicians as related to the diabetes. Furthermore, the metabolic mechanism for such manifestations has been inconsistent and difficult to interpret in practical clinical care, as reported in several reviews on the topic of brain and T1DM. However, new technological methods for brain assessment, as well as the introduction of continuous glucose monitoring, provide new insights and information regarding brain related manifestations and glycemic variability and control parameters, which may impact the clinical care of children and youth with T1DM. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recently reported behavioral, cognitive domains, sleep related, electrophysiological, and structural alterations in children and adolescences from a novel point of view. The review focuses on reported impairments based on duration of T1DM, its timeline, and modifiable disease related risk parameters. These findings are not without controversy, and limitations of data are presented in addition to recommendations for future research direction. PMID:25789107

  19. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  20. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  1. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  2. Police use of handcuffs in the homeless population leads to long-term negative attitudes within this group.

    PubMed

    Krameddine, Yasmeen I; Silverstone, Peter H

    2016-01-01

    The police interact with homeless individuals frequently. However, there has been relatively little research on the attitudes of homeless individuals towards the police, and how police interactions may impact these. This is important since the attitudes of homeless individuals can impact how often they report crimes, and how well they support police when they are investigating crimes in this population. We interviewed 213 homeless individuals in a single city, representing approximately 10% of the total homeless population. They were interviewed at either homeless shelters, or events held specifically for the homeless population. Of these individuals, 75% were male, and 47% had interacted with a police officer within the past month. Self-reports suggested that 60% had a drug and/or alcohol issue and 78% had a mental illness. We found a highly statistically significant difference between the group that had been handcuffed and/or arrested compared to those that had not. This was across multiple domains and included how the individual regarded the police in terms of their empathy and communication skills, and how much they trusted the police. These changes were long-term, and if a homeless individual had been arrested or handcuffed (and verbal reporting suggested that being handcuffed was the by far the most important factor) then these negative attitudes lasted at least 2 years. The primary conclusion from this study is that when police handcuff a homeless individual, this can lead to long-term negative views about the police across several domains that appear to be long lasting, and were linked to feelings of not being respected by the police. It is therefore proposed that police officers should be made aware of the potential long-term negative consequences of this single action, and that police forces should consider providing specific training to minimize any unnecessary overuse of handcuffs.

  3. Long-term hantavirus persistence in rodent populations in central Arizona.

    PubMed Central

    Abbott, K. D.; Ksiazek, T. G.; Mills, J. N.

    1999-01-01

    For 35 months, we monitored hantavirus activity in rodent populations in central Arizona. The most frequently captured hantavirus antibody-positive rodents were Peromyscus boylii and P. truei. Antibody-positive P. boylii were more frequently male (84%), older, and heavier, and they survived longer on trapping web sites than antibody-negative mice. The number of antibody-positive P. boylii was greater during high population densities than during low densities, while antibody prevalence was greater during low population densities. Virus transmission and incidence rates, also related to population densities, varied by trapping site. The spatial distribution of antibody-positive P. boylii varied by population density and reflected the species preference for dense chaparral habitats. The focal ranges of antibody-positive P. boylii also demonstrated a patchy distribution of hantavirus. PMID:10081677

  4. Modelling cadmium contamination in paddy soils under long-term remediation measures: Model development and stochastic simulations.

    PubMed

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping

    2016-09-01

    A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation.

  5. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans’ Population after Hurricane Katrina

    PubMed Central

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility – both evacuation and migration – after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster. PMID:26880853

  6. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed

    Homewood, K; Lambin, E F; Coast, E; Kariuki, A; Kikula, I; Kivelia, J; Said, M; Serneels, S; Thompson, M

    2001-10-23

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use.

  7. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: Pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed Central

    Homewood, K.; Lambin, E. F.; Coast, E.; Kariuki, A.; Kikula, I.; Kivelia, J.; Said, M.; Serneels, S.; Thompson, M.

    2001-01-01

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use. PMID:11675492

  8. Population dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria and Pasteuria penetrans in a long-term crop rotation study.

    PubMed

    Timper, Patricia

    2009-12-01

    The endospore-forming bacterium Pasteuria penetrans is an obligate parasite of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). The primary objective of this study was to determine the effect of crop sequence on abundance of P. penetrans. The experiment was conducted from 2000 to 2008 at a field site naturally infested with both the bacterium and its host Meloidogyne arenaria and included the following crop sequences: continuous peanut (Arachis hypogaea) (P-P-P) and peanut rotated with either 2 years of corn (Zea mays) (C-C-P), 1 year each of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) and corn (Ct-C-P), or 1 year each of corn and a vegetable (V-C-P). The vegetable was a double crop of sweet corn and eggplant (Solanum melongena). A bioassay with second-stage juveniles (J2) of M. arenaria from a greenhouse (GH) population was used to estimate endospore abundance under the different crop sequences. A greater numerical increase in endospore densities was expected in the P-P-P and V-C-P sequences than in the other sequences because both peanut and eggplant are good hosts for M. arenaria. However, endospore densities, as determined by bioassay, did not substantially increase in any of the sequences during the 9-year experiment. To determine whether the nematode population had developed resistance to the resident P. penetrans, five single egg-mass (SEM) lines from the field population of M. arenaria were tested alongside the GH population for acquisition of endospores from the field soil. Four of the five SEM lines acquired 9 to 14 spores/J2 whereas the GH population and one of the SEM lines acquired 3.5 and 1.8 spores/J2, respectively. Endospore densities estimated with the four receptive SEM lines were highest in the P-P-P plots (14-20 spores/J2), intermediate in the V-C-P plots (6-7 spores/J2), and lowest in the Ct-C-P plots (< 1 spore/J2). These results indicate that the field population of M. arenaria is heterogeneous for attachment of P. penetrans endospores. Moreover, spore densities

  9. Implications of incomplete registration of deaths on long-term survival estimates from population-based cancer registries.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Hakulinen, Timo

    2009-07-15

    International comparison of population-based cancer survival is a key component of monitoring progress against cancer. Its validity depends to an unknown degree on completeness of ascertainment of deaths in the cancer registries involved which may vary according to legal and administrative circumstances. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of incomplete registration of deaths through various mechanisms on the validity of long-term absolute and relative survival estimates. For that purpose, we simulated underascertainment of deaths through linkage failure of registry data with death certificates with probabilities between 0.1 and 5%, and underascertainment of deaths by unregistered annual emigration with probabilities between 0.05 and 2%, using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. The expected impact on estimates of 5-, 10- and 15-year absolute and relative survival was assessed. We demonstrate that even modest levels of under-registration of deaths may lead to severe overestimation of long-term survival estimates, ranging from 0 to 31 percent units in the scenarios assessed. In general, relative survival is much more affected than absolute survival, and potential problems are much larger for relative survival estimates in older compared with younger patients. Potential overestimation strongly increases with length of follow-up, and this increase is particularly pronounced for under-registration of deaths because of unrecorded emigration. Every effort should be made in cancer registry based survival analyses to ascertain deaths with close to 100% completeness. When such completeness cannot be achieved, long-term relative survival estimates and their comparison across populations must be interpreted with much caution.

  10. Long-term population dynamics of phototrophic sulfur bacteria in the chemocline of Lake Cadagno, Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Tonolla, Mauro; Peduzzi, Raffaele; Hahn, Dittmar

    2005-07-01

    Population analyses in water samples obtained from the chemocline of crenogenic, meromictic Lake Cadagno, Switzerland, in October for the years 1994 to 2003 were studied using in situ hybridization with specific probes. During this 10-year period, large shifts in abundance between purple and green sulfur bacteria and among different populations were obtained. Purple sulfur bacteria were the numerically most prominent phototrophic sulfur bacteria in samples obtained from 1994 to 2001, when they represented between 70 and 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. All populations of purple sulfur bacteria showed large fluctuations in time with populations belonging to the genus Lamprocystis being numerically much more important than those of the genera Chromatium and Thiocystis. Green sulfur bacteria were initially represented by Chlorobium phaeobacteroides but were replaced by Chlorobium clathratiforme by the end of the study. C. clathratiforme was the only green sulfur bacterium detected during the last 2 years of the analysis, when a shift in dominance from purple sulfur bacteria to green sulfur bacteria was observed in the chemocline. At this time, numbers of purple sulfur bacteria had decreased and those of green sulfur bacteria increased by about 1 order of magnitude and C. clathratiforme represented about 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. This major change in community structure in the chemocline was accompanied by changes in profiles of turbidity and photosynthetically available radiation, as well as for sulfide concentrations and light intensity. Overall, these findings suggest that a disruption of the chemocline in 2000 may have altered environmental niches and populations in subsequent years.

  11. Stochastic Gain in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Röhl, Torsten; Schuster, Heinz Georg

    2004-07-01

    We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a resonancelike fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.

  12. Long-term variation of fiddler crab populations in North Carolina salt marshes

    SciTech Connect

    Cammen, L.M.; Seneca, E.D.; Stroud, L.M.

    1984-06-01

    As part of the environmental monitoring of possible effects of the Brunswick nuclear power plant fiddle crab populations were sampled in several salt marshes in the lower Cape Fear River estuary, North Carolina for five years. Total biomass of the fiddler crabs Uca Pugnax and U. minax in four Spartina marshes declined by 65 to 70% between the summers of 1974-1975 and 1976-1977 with no significant decrease in population density; there was evidence of a recovery in summer of 1978 to the 1974-1975 levels. The cause of these fluctuations is unknown, but such a degree of variability in intertidal populations emphasizes the need for caution in using one or two-year baseline studies to evalute potential environmental impacts. 1 figure, 2 table.

  13. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-04-10

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival.

  14. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

    PubMed Central

    Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-01-01

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  15. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-05-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats.

  16. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  17. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species - little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) - in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999-2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide

  18. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Amelon, Sybill K.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus

  19. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a ...

  20. Long-Term Benefits of Full-Day Kindergarten: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownell, M. D.; Nickel, N. C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P. J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C. Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were…

  1. Bacterial populations within copper mine tailings: long-term effects of amendment with Class A biosolids

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    This study evaluates the effect of surface application of dried Class A biosolids on microbial populations within copper mine tailings. Methods and Results: Mine tailing sites were established at ASARCO Mission Mine close to Sahuarita, Arizona. Site 1 (Dec. 1998) was amended with 248 tons ha-1 of C...

  2. Population genetic analysis reveals a long-term decline of a threatened endemic Australian marsupial.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Birgita D; Harley, Daniel K P; Lindenmayer, David B; Taylor, Andrea C

    2009-08-01

    Since European colonization, Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) has declined across its range to the point where it is now only patchily distributed within the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. The loss of large hollow-bearing trees coupled with inadequate recruitment of mature ash forest has been predicted to result in a reduction in population size of up to 90% by 2020. Furthermore, bioclimatic analyses have suggested additional reductions in the species' distribution under a variety of climate change scenarios. Using a panel of 15 highly resolving microsatellite markers and mitochondrial control region sequence data, we infer past and present gene flow. Populations in the northern part of the core range were highly admixed, and showed no signs of either current or historical barriers to gene flow. A marginal, isolated and inbred population at Yellingbo was highly genetically differentiated, both in terms of current and historic genetic structure. Sequence data confirmed the conclusions from earlier genetic simulation studies that the Yellingbo population has been isolated from the rest of the species range since before European-induced changes to the montane landscape, and formed part of a larger genetic unit that is now otherwise extinct. Historic loss of maternal lineages in the Central Highlands of Victoria was detected despite signals of immigration, indicating population declines that most probably coincided with changes in climate at the end of the Pleistocene. Given ongoing habitat loss and the recent (February 2009) wildfire in the Central Highlands, we forecast (potentially extensive) demographic declines, in line with predicted range reductions under climate change scenarios.

  3. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  4. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-08-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

  5. Influence of long-term chronic exposure and weather conditions on Scots pine populations.

    PubMed

    Geras'kin, Stanislav; Vasiliyev, Denis; Makarenko, Ekaterina; Volkova, Polina; Kuzmenkov, Alexey

    2017-04-01

    Over a period of 8 years (2007-2014), we were evaluating seed quality and morphological abnormalities in Scots pine trees affected as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The calculated dose rates for the trees at the study sites varied from background values at the reference sites to 40 mGy/year at the most contaminated site. We investigated whether radioactive contamination and/or weather factors could decrease the reproductive capacity or increase the frequency of morphological abnormalities of needles in pine trees. Scots pine seeds are characterized by high interannual variability of viability, which is largely determined by weather conditions. No consistent differences in reproductive capacity were detected between the impacted and reference populations. Brachyblasts with three needles were found only in the affected populations; however, their frequency was very low and only at the very border of significance at the p < 0.10 level.

  6. Reorganization of cortical population activity imaged throughout long-term sensory deprivation.

    PubMed

    Margolis, David J; Lütcke, Henry; Schulz, Kristina; Haiss, Florent; Weber, Bruno; Kügler, Sebastian; Hasan, Mazahir T; Helmchen, Fritjof

    2012-11-01

    Sensory maps are reshaped by experience. It is unknown how map plasticity occurs in vivo in functionally diverse neuronal populations because activity of the same cells has not been tracked over long time periods. Here we used repeated two-photon imaging of a genetic calcium indicator to measure whisker-evoked responsiveness of the same layer 2/3 neurons in adult mouse barrel cortex over weeks, first with whiskers intact, then during continued trimming of all but one whisker. Across the baseline period, neurons displayed heterogeneous yet stable responsiveness. During sensory deprivation, responses to trimmed whisker stimulation globally decreased, whereas responses to spared whisker stimulation increased for the least active neurons and decreased for the most active neurons. These findings suggest that recruitment of inactive, 'silent' neurons is part of a convergent redistribution of population activity underlying sensory map plasticity. Sensory-driven responsiveness is a key property controlling experience-dependent activity changes in individual neurons.

  7. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    PubMed Central

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  8. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England.

    PubMed

    Woodcock, Ben A; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Bullock, James M; Roy, David B; Garthwaite, David G; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F

    2016-08-16

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

  9. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response...condition to reproductive output; 4 ) continue and expand tag re-sighting to refine survival estimates; 5) continue satellite tracking of adult females to... Molting Seasons 2011 Funding from this grant supported multiple components of the field effort associated with the study of both foraging behavior

  10. Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2011-01-01

    Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

  11. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  12. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  13. Chronic hepatitis C: treatment, complications, and long-term outcomes in a population of Latino veterans

    PubMed Central

    Santiago-Rolon, Amarilys; Purcell, Dagmary; Grigg, Nicole; Toro, Doris H.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health problem in Puerto Rico. It is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and the most frequent indication for liver transplantation in the United States." Our main objectives were to estimate the seroprevalence of CHC infection, to describe the demographic and histological parameters of the infection in our sample population, and to evaluate the treatment outcomes in Puerto Rican veterans. Methods To determine overall seroprevalence, we reviewed all the hepatitis C cases (encompassing from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2009) of the VA Caribbean Healthcare System, Department of Veterans Affairs. The records of only those individuals who received treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin were reviewed to determine risks factors for infection, response rates, adverse events, and outcomes. Results During the study period, there were a total of 1,496 patients identified as being infected with HCV, for an estimated seroprevalence of 2.3%. Of these, approximately 10% (137) were treated with combination therapy and were included in this study. The mean age was 58 (±6.4); 96.4% were men. The most common genotype was type 1. The responses to treatment were generally poor, with only 48.4% of the patients achieving Ssustained virological response. Discussion Though the seroprevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the Latino veteran population of Puerto Rico is high, relatively few patients have received treatment, most probably because of the contraindications of the medications used. Combination therapy with pegylated interferon plus weight-based ribavirin was inefficient and plagued with side effects; as a whole, this therapy was not found to be overly beneficial to our patients. New emerging and approved therapies will change this paradigm, allowing the treatment of a larger population without the side effects of the studied therapy. PMID:26932282

  14. Long-term variation of octocoral populations in St. John, US Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Lasker, Howard R.; Edmunds, Peter J.

    2015-12-01

    The decline in abundance of scleractinian corals over the past three decades in the Caribbean has raised the possibility that other important benthic taxa, such as octocorals, are also changing in abundance. We used photoquadrats taken over 20 yr from reefs (7-9 m depth) at six sites on the south coast of St. John, US Virgin Islands, to test the hypothesis that octocorals have changed in abundance since 1992. Octocorals were counted in 0.25 m2 photoquadrats at 2- to 3-yr intervals and identified to genus or family. Overall, there was variation over time in population density of octocorals (pooled among taxa, and also separately for Antillogorgia spp., Gorgonia spp., and plexaurids) at each site, and densities remained unchanged or increased over 20 yr; where increases in density occurred, the effects were accentuated after 2002. The local-scale analysis was expanded to the Caribbean (including the Florida Keys) by compiling data for octocoral densities from 31 studies for reefs at ≤25 m depth between 1968 and 2013. At this scale, analyses were limited by the paucity of historical data, and despite a weak trend of higher octocoral densities in recent decades, statistically, there was no change in octocoral abundance over time. Together with data from the whole Caribbean, the present analysis suggests that octocorals have not experienced a decadal-scale decline in population density, which has occurred for many scleractinian corals.

  15. Reduced microsatellite heterozygosity in island endemics supports the role of long-term effective population size in avian microsatellite diversity

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Because of the high mutation rate of microsatellites, polymorphism at microsatellite loci might be predicted to reflect the effective population size over a time span of about 10,000 years and thus to be associated with biogeographic factors impacting species on that time frame. This prediction was tested by comparing heterozygosity at microsatellite loci from 294 bird species, including 58 species endemic to oceanic islands. Controlling statistically for phylogenetic effects, mean heterozygosity was significantly reduced in oceanic island endemics compared to other species. There was also an effect of current endangerment, statistically independent of the effect of island endemicity. These results support the hypothesis that long-term effective population size can be an important causative factor behind differences among species with respect to microsatellite heterozygosity. PMID:21104002

  16. Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs.

    PubMed

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

  17. Long Term Seasonal Dynamics of Synechococcus Population Structure in the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea

    PubMed Central

    Post, Anton F.; Penno, Sigrid; Zandbank, Keren; Paytan, Adina; Huse, Susan M.; Welch, David Mark

    2011-01-01

    Spatial patterns of marine Synechococcus diversity across ocean domains have been reported on extensively. However, much less is known of seasonal and multiannual patterns of change in Synechococcus community composition. Here we report on the genotypic diversity of Synechococcus populations in the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea, over seven annual cycles of deep mixing and stabile stratification, using ntcA as a phylogenetic marker. Synechococcus clone libraries were dominated by clade II and XII genotypes and a total of eight different clades were identified. Inclusion of ntcA sequences from the Global Ocean Sampling database in our analyses identified members of clade XII from beyond the Gulf of Aqaba, extending its known distribution. Most of the Synechococcus diversity was attributed to members of clade II during the spring bloom, while clade III contributed significantly to diversity during summer stratification. Clade XII diversity was most prevalent in fall and winter. Clade abundances were estimated from pyrosequencing of the V6 hypervariable region of 16S rRNA. Members of clade II dominated Synechococcus communities throughout the year, whereas the less frequent genotypes showed a pattern of seasonal succession. Based on the prevailing nutritional conditions we observed that clade I members thrive at higher nutrient concentrations during winter mixing. Clades V, VI and X became apparent during the transition periods between mixing and stratification. Clade III became prominent during sumeer stratification. We propose that members of clades V, VI, and X, and clade III are Synechococcus ecotypes that are adapted to intermediate and low nutrient levels respectively. This is the first time that molecular analyses have correlated population dynamics of Synechococcus genotypes with temporal fluctuations in nutrient regimes. Since these Synechococcus genotypes are routinely observed in the Gulf of Aqaba we suggest that seasonal fluctuations in nutrient levels

  18. Multiple Processes Regulate Long-Term Population Dynamics of Sea Urchins on Mediterranean Rocky Reefs

    PubMed Central

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  19. Drastic changes in aquatic bacterial populations from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico) in response to long-term environmental stress.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Silvia; Eguiarte, Luis E; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Souza, Valeria

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the changes of aquatic microbial community composition in response to changes in temperature and ultraviolet irradiation is relevant for predicting biogeochemical modifications in the functioning of natural microbial communities under global climate change scenarios. Herein we investigate shifts in the bacterioplankton composition in response to long-term changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with composite aquatic microbial communities from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexican Chihuahuan desert) and were subject to different temperatures and UV conditions. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were obtained from water samples at the mid-point (4 months) and the end of the experiment (8 months). An increase in bacterial diversity over time was found in the treatment of constant temperature and UV protection, which suggests that stable environments promote the establishment of complex and diverse bacterial community. Drastic changes in the phylogenetic bacterioplankton composition and structure were observed in response to fluctuating temperature and increasing UV radiation and temperature. Fluctuating temperature induced the largest decrease of bacterial richness during the experiment, indicating that frequent temperature changes drive the reduction in abundance of several species, most notably autotrophs. The long-term impact of these environmental stresses reduced diversity and selected for generalist aquatic bacterial populations, such as Porphyrobacter. These changes at the community level occur at an ecological time scale, suggesting that under global warming scenarios cascade effects on the food web are possible if the microbial diversity is modified.

  20. Plant breeding: a long-term strategy for the control of zinc deficiency in vulnerable populations.

    PubMed

    Ruel, M T; Bouis, H E

    1998-08-01

    Because trace minerals are important not only for human nutrition but for plant nutrition as well, plant breeding holds great promise for making a significant, sustainable, low-cost contribution to the reduction of micronutrient deficiencies in humans. It may also have important spinoff effects for increasing farm productivity in developing countries in an environmentally beneficial way. This article describes ongoing plant breeding research that could increase the intake of bioavailable zinc from food staple crops in vulnerable populations in developing countries. The 3 most promising plant breeding strategies toward this goal are as follows: 1) increasing the concentration of zinc, 2) reducing the amount of phytic acid (a strong inhibitor of zinc absorption), and 3) raising the concentrations of sulfur-containing amino acids (thought to promote zinc absorption) in the plant. The agronomic advantages and disadvantages as well as the potential benefits and limitations of each approach for human nutrition are described. Research is currently underway to identify the optimal combination of these approaches that will maximize the effect on human zinc nutrition.

  1. Acorn mast drives long-term dynamics of rodent and songbird populations.

    PubMed

    Clotfelter, Ethan D; Pedersen, Amy B; Cranford, Jack A; Ram, Nilam; Snajdr, Eric A; Nolan, Val; Ketterson, Ellen D

    2007-12-01

    Resource pulses can have cascading effects on the dynamics of multiple trophic levels. Acorn mast is a pulsed resource in oak-dominated forests that has significant direct effects on acorn predators and indirect effects on their predators, prey, and pathogens. We evaluated changes in acorn mast, rodent abundance, raptor abundance, and reproductive success of a ground-nesting songbird over a 24-year period (1980-2004) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in an effort to determine the relationships among the four trophic levels. In particular, we examined the following: acorn mast from red oaks (Quercus rubra) and white oaks (Q. alba), abundance of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) and deer mice (P. maniculatus), population estimates of seven raptor species from three feeding guilds, and nest failure and number of juveniles of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). Finally, we recorded seasonal temperature and precipitation to determine the effects of weather on each trophic level. We found that weather patterns had delayed effects of up to 3 years on these trophic interactions. Variation in acorn mast, the keystone resource in this community, was explained by weather conditions as far back as 2 years before the mast event. Acorn mast, in turn, was a strongly positive predictor of rodent abundance the following year, whereas spring and summer temperature and raptor abundance negatively affected rodent abundance. Dark-eyed junco nests were more likely to fail in years in which there were more rodents and raptors. Nest failure rate was a strong predictor of the number of juvenile juncos caught at the end of the summer. Our results improve our understanding of the complex ecological interactions in oak-dominated forests by illustrating the importance of abiotic and biotic factors at different trophic levels.

  2. Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

    PubMed Central

    Mendivil, Joan; Andreu, Montserrat; Hernández, Cristina; Castells, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50–69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010–2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies. Results An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity. Conclusions Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies. PMID:27732635

  3. Long-term occupancy trends in a data-poor dugong population in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

    PubMed

    D'Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50 years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959-2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010-2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting.

  4. Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago

    PubMed Central

    D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  5. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve

    PubMed Central

    Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  6. The ‘stochastic river’: The use of budget-capacity modelling as a basis for predicting long-term properties of stratigraphic successions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tipper, John C.

    2007-11-01

    Sediment budget and sedimentation capacity are basic variables that can be used to describe the operation of sedimentation systems of all types; they are generalisations of sediment supply and accommodation. The sediment budget at a site is defined as the net flux of sediment across the site's boundaries; the sedimentation capacity is a measure of the deviation from equilibrium of the sedimentation system concerned. The operation of a sedimentation system is described by first specifying the system's budget-capacity relationship; this is most conveniently done by providing a probabilistic means of predicting budget from capacity. Once the budget-capacity relationship has been specified, a model of the system is constructed; this model follows the general rules put forward in the budget-capacity theory of sedimentation. The model enables the prediction of the patterns of deposition, stasis and erosion that the system will produce in time; from these patterns can then be determined the properties of the stratigraphic successions the system is expected to leave behind. There are many kinds of budget-capacity model. One of these, the 'stochastic river', is particularly useful in predicting long-term regularities in the stratigraphic thickness-time relationship. The 'stochastic river' is a two-dimensional budget-capacity model that mimics an idealised single-channel river. It is composed of a large number of similar sedimentation systems linked together in a chain, with each system fed exclusively from its upstream neighbour. The systems are continually perturbed by having their capacities altered by various external factors; these may be long-term regional-scale factors such as tectonically-induced basement subsidence and isostatic adjustment, as well as short-term local-scale factors such as changes in river discharge. The capacity perturbations are modelled as being driven by a random process; the perturbations of adjacent systems are spatially and temporally coupled

  7. Effects of crop rotation and reduced nitrogen fertilisation on Apera spica-venti populations in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Schulz, A; Pallurt, B; Gerowitt, B

    2011-01-01

    Apera spica-venti is one of the most serious annual grass weeds in Germany and may cause considerably yield losses in untreated fields. A long-term field experiment was conducted investigating the effects of crop rotation and nitrogen fertiliser use on A. spica-venti populations. A six-field cash-crop rotation with 67% winter cereals and a six-field fodder crop rotation with 50% winter cereals were studied. The rate of tillering was in the fodder crop rotation significantly higher than in the cash crop rotation. The halving of nitrogen fertilizer dose caused a significant increase in the tillering rate. Most plants of A. spica-venti emerged in winter wheat. There was an increase of emerged A. spica-venti in winter wheat from year to year.

  8. Burn Injury Leads to Increased Long-Term Susceptibility to Respiratory Infection in both Mouse Models and Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Fear, Vanessa S.; Boyd, James H.; Rea, Suzanne; Wood, Fiona M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Burn injury initiates an acute inflammatory response that subsequently drives wound repair. However, acute disruption to the immune response is also common, leading to susceptibility to sepsis and increased morbidity and mortality. Despite increased understanding of the impact of burn injury on the immune system in the acute phase, little is known about long-term consequences of burn injury on immune function. This study was established to determine whether burn injury has long-term clinical impacts on patients’ immune responses. Methods Using a population-based retrospective longitudinal study and linked hospital morbidity and death data from Western Australia, comparative rates of hospitalisation for respiratory infections in burn patients and a non-injured comparator cohort were assessed. In addition, a mouse model of non-severe burn injury was also used in which viral respiratory infection was induced at 4 weeks post-injury using a mouse modified version of the Influenza A virus (H3NN; A/mem/71-a). Results and conclusions The burn injured cohort contained 14893 adult patients from 1980–2012 after removal of those patients with evidence of smoke inhalation or injury to the respiratory tract. During the study follow-up study a total of 2,884 and 2,625 respiratory infection hospital admissions for the burn and uninjured cohorts, respectively, were identified. After adjusting for covariates, the burn cohort experienced significantly elevated admission rates for influenza and viral pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 1.73, 1.27–2.36), bacterial pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 2.05, 1.85–2.27) and for other types of upper and lower respiratory infections (IRR, 95% CI: 2.38, 2.09–2.71). In the mouse study an increased viral titre was observed after burn injury, accompanied by a reduced CD8 response and increased NK and NKT cells in the draining lymph nodes. This data suggests burn patients are at long-term increased risk of infection due to sustained modulation of the

  9. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  10. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  11. Long-term effects of fungicides on leaf-associated microorganisms and shredder populations-an artificial stream study.

    PubMed

    Zubrod, Jochen P; Englert, Dominic; Wolfram, Jakob; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Feckler, Alexander; Bundschuh, Rebecca; Seitz, Frank; Konschak, Marco; Baudy, Patrick; Lüderwald, Simon; Fink, Patrick; Lorke, Andreas; Schulz, Ralf; Bundschuh, Mirco

    2017-02-04

    Leaf litter is a major source of carbon and energy for stream food webs, while both leaf-decomposing microorganisms and macroinvertebrate leaf shredders can be affected by fungicides. Despite the potential for season-long fungicide exposure for these organisms, however, such chronic exposures have not yet been considered. Using an artificial stream facility, effects of a chronic (lasting up to 8 wk) exposure to a mixture of 5 fungicides (sum concentration 20 μg/L) on leaf-associated microorganisms and the key leaf shredder Gammarus fossarum were therefore assessed. While bacterial density and microorganism-mediated leaf decomposition remained unaltered, fungicide exposure reduced fungal biomass (≤71%) on leaves from day 28 onward. Gammarids responded to the combined stress from consumption of fungicide-affected leaves and waterborne exposure with a reduced abundance (≤18%), which triggered reductions in final population biomass (18%) and in the number of precopula pairs (≤22%) but could not fully explain the decreased leaf consumption (19%), lipid content (≤43%; going along with an altered composition of fatty acids), and juvenile production (35%). In contrast, fine particulate organic matter production and stream respiration were unaffected. Our results imply that long-term exposure of leaf-associated fungi and shredders toward fungicides may result in detrimental implications in stream food webs and impairments of detrital material fluxes. These findings render it important to understand decomposer communities' long-term adaptational capabilities to ensure that functional integrity is safeguarded. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;9999:1-12. © 2017 SETAC.

  12. Population pharmacokinetic model of THC integrates oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dosing and characterizes short- and long-term pharmacokinetics.

    PubMed

    Heuberger, Jules A A C; Guan, Zheng; Oyetayo, Olubukayo-Opeyemi; Klumpers, Linda; Morrison, Paul D; Beumer, Tim L; van Gerven, Joop M A; Cohen, Adam F; Freijer, Jan

    2015-02-01

    Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannobinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound of Cannabis, is known to have a long terminal half-life. However, this characteristic is often ignored in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of THC, which may affect the accuracy of predictions in different pharmacologic areas. For therapeutic use for example, it is important to accurately describe the terminal phase of THC to describe accumulation of the drug. In early clinical research, the THC challenge test can be optimized through more accurate predictions of the dosing sequence and the wash-out between occasions in a crossover setting, which is mainly determined by the terminal half-life of the compound. The purpose of this study is to better quantify the long-term pharmacokinetics of THC. A population-based PK model for THC was developed describing the profile up to 48 h after an oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dose of THC in humans. In contrast to earlier models, the current model integrates all three major administration routes and covers the long terminal phase of THC. Results show that THC has a fast initial and intermediate half-life, while the apparent terminal half-life is long (21.5 h), with a clearance of 38.8 L/h. Because the current model characterizes the long-term pharmacokinetics, it can be used to assess the accumulation of THC in a multiple-dose setting and to forecast concentration profiles of the drug under many different dosing regimens or administration routes. Additionally, this model could provide helpful insights into the THC challenge test used for the development of (novel) compounds targeting the cannabinoid system for different therapeutic applications and could improve decision making in future clinical trials.

  13. Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, Robert N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons( Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsenda??s ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 199Os, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  14. Long-term Prairie Falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, K.; Kochert, M.N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  15. Metabolic syndrome predicts long-term mortality in subjects without established diabetes mellitus in asymptomatic Korean population

    PubMed Central

    Won, Ki-Bum; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Han, Donghee; Sung, Jidong; Choi, Su-Yeon

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Despite the different features of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Asian populations compared with Western populations, the impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on long-term mortality according to DM status has not yet been elucidated in the Asian population. After performing 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) using clinical variables including age, gender, smoking, and individual MetS components between DM and non-DM subjects from the data of the Korea Initiatives on Coronary Artery Calcification registry, mortality was evaluated according to DM and MetS in 14,956 asymptomatic Korean subjects. The mean follow-up duration was 53.1 months (interquartile range: 33–80). The overall prevalence of MetS was 60%. DM subjects had higher mortality compared with non-DM subjects (1.2% vs 0.7%, respectively; P = 0.001); the cumulative mortality by Kaplan–Meier analysis was higher in DM subjects than in non-DM subjects (log-rank P = 0.001). DM increased the risk of mortality in PSM participants (hazard ratio [HR] 1.74; P = 0.001). In non-DM subjects, MetS (HR 2.32) and one of its components, central obesity (HR 1.97), were associated with an increased risk of mortality (both P < 0.05). In contrast, there was no significant difference in the risk of mortality according to MetS or its components in DM subjects. After adjusting for confounding risk factors, it was shown that MetS independently increased the risk of mortality in non-DM subjects. Compared with non-DM subjects, DM subjects have an increased risk of long-term mortality among PSM participants. MetS appears to have an independent impact on mortality in subjects without established DM among the asymptomatic Korean population. Our results may not be applicable to the whole subjects with MetS because the PSM using MetS components was performed between subjects with and without DM which was very high risk for adverse clinical events. PMID:27930521

  16. Prevalence of unknown and untreated arrhythmias in an older outpatient population screened by wireless long-term recording ECG

    PubMed Central

    Lindberg, Terese; Bohman, Doris M; Elmståhl, Sölve; Jogréus, Claes; Sanmartin Berglund, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Purpose With longer life expectancies, the prevalence of arrhythmias is increasing; thus, there is a need for new methods to screen the older outpatient population. This population-based study describes the prevalence of arrhythmias in 200 outpatients aged ≥66 years. We also investigated the feasibility of wireless long-term recording (LTR) using the ECG-BodyKom®. Methods Two hundred elderly persons aged 66–93 years were recruited from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in 2010–2013, and data were collected via wireless LTR ECG-BodyKom. Results Screening with the LTR ECG revealed that persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) occurred in 10% of the outpatient population aged ≥66 years. Paroxysmal AF occurred in 5.5% of the population, with no difference between younger (60–80 years) and older (>80 years) elderly participants. Furthermore, all patients with paroxysmal AF had a CHA2DS2VASc score of ≥2 and were therefore potential candidates for follow-up and medical examination. LTR ECG-BodyKom can be considered a feasible method to screen for arrhythmias in older outpatient populations. This simple method requires little of the user, and there was high satisfaction with the equipment and a good overall experience wearing it. Conclusion The increasing occurrence of arrhythmias in the older population, as well as the high number of untreated cases of arrhythmias such as persistent AF and paroxysmal AF, poses a challenge for health care. Therefore, it is essential to develop effective strategies for their prevention and treatment. PMID:27570450

  17. Long-term population survey of the Sulawesi black macaques (Macaca nigra) at Tangkoko Nature Reserve, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Kyes, Randall C; Iskandar, Entang; Onibala, Jane; Paputungan, Umar; Laatung, Sylvia; Huettmann, Falk

    2013-01-01

    The Sulawesi black macaque (Macaca nigra) population at Tangkoko Nature Reserve in North Sulawesi, Indonesia has been the focus of periodic study for over 30 years. The population has shown considerable decline during much of that time. Here we present the results of a long-term population survey of the Tangkoko M. nigra, conducted over the past decade, to provide updated information and on-going assessment of the population. Line-transect sampling was conducted annually from 1999 to 2002 and 2005 to 2011 along the same transect during a 2- to 3-week survey period. Although further decline in the population was observed at the outset of the survey, over the subsequent 12-year period we have seen stability in the population parameters with evidence of modest increases in both group and population density. During the 1999-2002 survey periods, there was a mean group density of 3.6 groups/km(2) and a mean population density of 39.8 individuals/km(2) . During 2005-2011, mean group density increased to 3.8 groups/km(2) and mean population density was 51.4 individuals/km(2) . The 2011 survey data indicated an estimated group density of 4.3 groups/km(2) and a population density of 61.5 individuals/km(2) . Given that our transect was located in the core of the Tangkoko reserve, our density estimates should be limited to that area of the reserve. One explanation for the apparent stabilization of the population may be tied to the increasing and sustained number of training and research programs being conducted at the reserve. This collective effort by local and international groups may be helping to reduce illegal activity in the reserve (i.e., hunting and habitat destruction) and generate greater awareness of this critically endangered species. Without the continued vigilance afforded by the existing research and training programs and the support and involvement of the local people, the M. nigra at the Tangkoko Nature Reserve will likely face further decline.

  18. [Research on the relationship between populations' long-term exposure to fluoride in drinking water and bone fracture in China].

    PubMed

    Liang, C; Ji, R; Cao, J; Cheng, X

    2001-09-01

    There are contradictory reports on the prevalence of bone fractures associated with long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water. The prevalence of bone fracture in six rural areas of China and the exposure of fluoride in drinking water was investigated. The data including medical history and demographic information, bone fractures, fluoride content in drinking water, physical activity, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and dietary intakes were collected. A retrospective epidemiological study by using the same design, method, quality control and the same questionnaire was conducted. A total of 8266 male and female over 50 years of age were divided into 6 groups by the fluoride concentrations in drinking water. The subjects in each group exposed to different levels of fluoride (0.25-0.34, 0.58-0.73, 1.00-1.06, 1.45-2.19, 2.62-3.58 and 4.32-7.97 mg/L) were 1363, 1407, 1370, 1574, 1051 and 1501 respectively. It has been confirmed that drinking water was the only major source of fluoride exposure in the studied populations. The total bone fracture rates were 7.41%, 6.40%, 5.11%, 6.04%, 6.09% and 7.40% in each group. Natural bone fracture rates in each group were 3.01%, 2.21%, 1.31%, 1.65%, 1.43% and 3.66% respectively. The prevalence of bone fracture and water fluoride level appeared a U-shaped relationship. The prevalence of total bone fracture and natural bone fracture in the population with fluoride 1.00-1.06 mg/L in drinking water was the lowest, compared with the groups exposed to fluoride higher than 4.32 mg/L and lower than 0.73 mg/L. The highest prevalence of hip fracture was in the group with higher water fluoride (4.32-7.97 mg/L) exposure. In general, the prevalence of hip fracture was lower and stable up to 1.06 mg/L of fluoride in drinking water, and then it appeared to rise. Based on the data collected in this investigation, it is concluded that the long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water higher than 4.32 mg/L might increase the risk of

  19. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    PubMed

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  20. Gaps in understanding health and engagement with healthcare providers across common long-term conditions: a population survey of health literacy in 29 473 Danish citizens

    PubMed Central

    Friis, Karina; Lasgaard, Mathias; Osborne, Richard H; Maindal, Helle T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To (1) quantify levels of subjective health literacy in people with long-term health conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, musculoskeletal disorders, cancer and mental disorders) and compare these to levels in the general population and (2) examine the association between health literacy, socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidity in each long-term condition group. Design Population-based survey in the Central Denmark Region (n=29 473). Main outcome measures Health literacy was measured using two scales from the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ): (1) Ability to understand health information and (2) Ability to actively engage with healthcare providers. Results People with long-term conditions reported more difficulties than the general population in understanding health information and actively engaging with healthcare providers. Wide variation was found between disease groups, with people with cancer having fewer difficulties and people with mental health disorders having more difficulties in actively engaging with healthcare providers than other long-term condition groups. Having more than one long-term condition was associated with more difficulty in engaging with healthcare providers and understanding health information. People with low levels of education had lower health literacy than people with high levels of education. Conclusions Compared with the general population, people with long-term conditions report more difficulties in understanding health information and engaging with healthcare providers. These two dimensions are critical to the provision of patient-centred healthcare and for optimising health outcomes. More effort should be made to respond to the health literacy needs among individuals with long-term conditions, multiple comorbidities and low education levels, to improve health outcomes and to reduce social inequality in health. PMID:26769783

  1. Long-term changes in the fine-scale population structure of coho salmon populations (Oncorhynchus kisutch) subject to extensive supportive breeding.

    PubMed

    Eldridge, W H; Myers, J M; Naish, K A

    2009-10-01

    The long-term viability of a metapopulation depends partly on the gene flow among sub-populations. Management approaches such as translocations and supportive breeding between closely related populations may affect gene flow and overall structure, and therefore viability. Here, we examined temporal changes in the fine-scale population structure of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) by comparing archived (1938) and modern (2001-2005) populations in six rivers within a single conservation unit (Puget Sound, Washington) sampled before and after an extended period of between-river transfers and releases of millions of cultured salmon. Genotype frequencies at eight microsatellite loci showed that current populations descended from historical Puget Sound populations, but populations in different rivers that exchanged fish for hatchery propagation share more of their ancestry recently than they did historically. Historically, populations in different rivers were isolated by geographic distance, but that relationship is no longer significant. Allelic richness among all populations declined significantly, suggesting that genetic drift has increased because of a population bottleneck. Populations in different rivers and within the same river have become more diverged, providing further evidence for a widespread bottleneck. Previously, we observed that genetic distance significantly decreased with the number of fish exchanged; however, some populations apparently resisted introgression. Altered gene flow and lost diversity may affect the complexity, and therefore resiliency of sub-populations within a conservation unit. Plans for artificial culture need to maintain existing genetic diversity and avoid disrupting the fine-scale structure by using local populations for parents whenever possible.

  2. Short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on benthic communities and ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations.

    PubMed

    Ragnarsson, Stefán Áki; Thorarinsdóttir, Gudrún G; Gunnarsson, Karl

    2015-08-01

    The short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations and on non-target organisms were examined in Þistilfjörður Bay, NE Iceland over a five-year period. The overall species richness was low and the fauna was composed of species typical of sandy seabeds characterised by frequent wave-induced disturbances. The initial effects of dredging on the overall benthic community were large. Most taxa were significantly affected by dredging, with abundances sometimes decreasing or increasing by more than 50% immediately after dredging. However, with the exception of the ocean quahog, their recovery was rapid, and most taxa attained similar abundances as in the undisturbed control sediments after three months, and all did so after about a year. The effects of dredging on ocean quahogs were drastic and long-lasting. Of the original ocean quahog biomass before fishing took place, the dredge captured 82%, while a further 11% was lost as a result of mortality due to shell damage and predation. The total direct and indirect loss of ocean quahog biomass within dredged tracks due to fishing was thus 93%. The recovery of ocean quahogs in fished areas was extremely slow. Five years after dredging, the total ocean quahog biomass in tracks had increased from 7% to 26% relative to that in the controls. The proportional increase among ocean quahogs of targeted sizes (>70 mm) was from 2% to 14% over the same period. This study shows that while the longer-term effects of hydraulic dredging on non-target benthic organisms were small, the effects of dredging on ocean quahog densities were drastic, with full recovery expected to take place on decadal time-scales. The impacts of dredging on ocean quahog populations at the scale of the fishery are discussed.

  3. Long-Term Quality of Life in Adult Patients with Strabismus after Corrective Surgery Compared to the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Meiping; Yu, Huanyun; Chen, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jinling; Zheng, Jingwei; Yu, Xinping

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the status of and factors associated with long-term health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adult patients with strabismus following corrective surgery. Methods Prospective cross-sectional study. A total of 122 adults who underwent corrective surgery and were followed up for at least 1 year were recruited. Pre- and post-operative HRQOL were evaluated using the Chinese version of the Adult Strabismus 20 (AS-20). Demographics and clinical characteristics were recorded. Eighty-nine age-matched, normal individuals without a history of strabismus were recruited as a control group. Results AS-20 scores improved significantly in the psychosocial subscale and total scale after surgery for all122 patients, but not in the function subscale. HRQOL was better in the successful cases than in the non-successful cases (p<0.005). Subjects who recovered stereo function had better HRQOL than those who did not (p<0.01). Compared to the control population, the patients had poorer HRQOL post-operatively, with only approximately 30% of the subjects having scores within the normal threshold scores. The self-sense of a lack of ocular deviation and a successful surgical outcome were significant factors associated with post-operative HRQOL status. Conclusions HRQOL, as evaluated by AS-20 scores, improved in the patients after surgery but was worse than that in the general population. Successful surgical outcomes and a sense of good alignment were the main factors that correlated with increased post-operative HRQOL. Positive assessments of surgical results by patients may benefit post-operative HRQOL. PMID:27846304

  4. Effect of long-term vineyard monoculture on rhizosphere populations of pseudomonads carrying the antimicrobial biosynthetic genes phlD and/or hcnAB.

    PubMed

    Svercel, Miroslav; Christen, Danilo; Moënne-Loccoz, Yvan; Duffy, Brion; Défago, Geneviève

    2009-04-01

    The impact of repeated culture of perennial plants (i.e. in long-term monoculture) on the ecology of plant-beneficial bacteria is unknown. Here, the influence of extremely long-term monocultures of grapevine (up to 1603 years) on rhizosphere populations of fluorescent pseudomonads carrying the biosynthetic genes phlD for 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol and/or hcnAB for hydrogen cyanide was determined. Soils from long-term and adjacent short-term monoculture vineyards (or brushland) in four regions of Switzerland were baited with grapevine or tobacco plantlets, and rhizosphere pseudomonads were studied by most probable number (MPN)-PCR. Higher numbers and percentages of phlD(+) and of hcnAB(+) rhizosphere pseudomonads were detected on using soil from long-term vineyards. On focusing on phlD, restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling of the last phlD-positive MPN wells revealed seven phlD alleles (three exclusively on tobacco, thereof two new ones). Higher numbers of phlD alleles coincided with a lower prevalence of the allele displayed by the well-studied biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens F113. The prevalence of this allele was 35% for tobacco in long-term monoculture soils vs. >60% in the other three cases. We conclude that soils from long-term grapevine monocultures represent an untapped resource for isolating novel biocontrol Pseudomonas strains when tobacco is used as bait.

  5. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  6. Long-term renal outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury: A nationwide population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Kor, Chew-Teng; Chiu, Ping-Fang; Tsai, Chun-Chieh; Lian, Ie-Bin; Yang, Tao-Hsiang; Tarng, Der-Cherng; Chang, Chia-Chu

    2017-01-01

    Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important cause of death and disability worldwide. The relationship between TBI and kidney diseases is largely unknown. Methods We aimed to determine whether TBI is associated with long-term adverse renal outcomes. We performed a nationwide, population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study of 32,152 TBI patients and 128,608 propensity score-matched controls. Data were collected by the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan from 2000 to 2012. Our clinical outcomes were chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and the composite endpoint of ESRD or all-cause mortality. Results The incidence rate of CKD was higher in the TBI than in the control cohort (8.99 vs. 7.4 per 1000 person-years). The TBI patients also showed higher risks of CKD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–1.20; P < 0.001) and composite endpoints (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.15; P = 0.022) than the control groups, but the ESRD was not significantly different between the groups. In subgroup analyses, the risks of incident CKD and composite endpoints were significantly raised in TBI patients aged < 65 years and/or without comorbidities. However, the risks of both CKD and composite outcome were little affected by the severity of TBI. Conclusions TBI has a modest but significant effect on incident CKD and composite endpoint, but not on ESRD alone. TBI patients under 65 are at greater risk of CKD and composite outcome than their older counterparts. PMID:28196132

  7. Randomised controlled trial of the effect of long-term selenium supplementation on plasma cholesterol in an elderly Danish population.

    PubMed

    Cold, Frederik; Winther, Kristian H; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rayman, Margaret P; Guallar, Eliseo; Nybo, Mads; Griffin, Bruce A; Stranges, Saverio; Cold, Søren

    2015-12-14

    Although cross-sectional studies have shown a positive association between Se and cholesterol concentrations, a recent randomised controlled trial in 501 elderly UK individuals of relatively low-Se status found that Se supplementation for 6 months lowered total plasma cholesterol. The Danish PRECISE (PREvention of Cancer by Intervention with Selenium) pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01819649) was a 5-year randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with four groups (allocation ratio 1:1:1:1). Men and women aged 60-74 years (n 491) were randomised to 100 (n 124), 200 (n 122) or 300 (n 119) μg Se-enriched yeast or matching placebo-yeast tablets (n 126) daily for 5 years. A total of 468 participants continued the study for 6 months and 361 participants, equally distributed across treatment groups, continued for 5 years. Plasma samples were analysed for total and HDL-cholesterol and for total Se concentrations at baseline, 6 months and 5 years. The effect of different doses of Se supplementation on plasma lipid and Se concentrations was estimated by using linear mixed models. Plasma Se concentration increased significantly and dose-dependently in the intervention groups after 6 months and 5 years. Total cholesterol decreased significantly both in the intervention groups and in the placebo group after 6 months and 5 years, with small and nonsignificant differences in changes in plasma concentration of total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and total:HDL-cholesterol ratio between intervention and placebo groups. The effect of long-term supplementation with Se on plasma cholesterol concentrations or its sub-fractions did not differ significantly from placebo in this elderly population.

  8. Spotlight on "Long-Term English Language Learners": Characteristics and Prior Schooling Experiences of an Invisible Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menken, Kate; Kleyn, Tatyana; Chae, Nabin

    2012-01-01

    This article presents qualitative research findings about the characteristics and prior schooling experiences of "long-term English language learners" (LTELLs), who have attended U.S. schools for 7 years or more, and about whom there is little empirical research, despite their significant numbers. Findings indicate that these students are orally…

  9. The Chronicity of Self-Injurious Behaviour: A Long-Term Follow-Up of a Total Population Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Lorne; Oliver, Chris; Murphy, Glynis

    2011-01-01

    Background: Self-injurious behaviour (SIB) is a relatively common problem for people with intellectual disabilities and it is known to be associated with various risk markers, such as degree of disability, sensory impairments, and autism (McClintock "et al." 2003). Less is known about its long-term course however. Method: The present…

  10. Long-time behavior of a stochastic epidemic model with varying population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Fengying; Liu, Jiamin

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we investigate the persistence and extinction of a stochastic epidemic model with a varying population environment in the long-term behavior. Our model consists of two stochastic differential equations: one for the susceptible individuals in which the transmission rate is disturbed by white noise, one for the exposed individuals in which the same perturbation occurs, and one ordinary differential equation in which describes the infective individuals in a varying population environment. We derive sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the epidemic model depending on the constant contact rate. Moreover, we carry out several numerical simulations to illustrate the main results of this contribution.

  11. Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

  12. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  13. Long-term Effect of Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer Patients with Mucinous Tumor: A Large Population Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Guan, Xu; Jia, Senhao; Chen, Wei; Jiang, Zheng; Liu, Zheng; Chen, Yinggang; Wang, Guiyu; Wang, Xishan

    2017-01-01

    Due to distinct biological behavior of mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) and signet ring cell cancer (SRC), the efficacy of radiotherapy on long-term outcome for rectal cancer (RC) patients with mucinous tumors is still unclear. Here, we identified 1808 RC patients with MAC/SRC from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2013. Patients were divided into two subgroups according to different therapeutic strategies, including surgery alone and surgery combined with radiotherapy. Kaplan–Meier methods and Cox regression models were used to access the influence of therapeutic strategy on long-term survival outcomes. The 5-year and 10-year cancer specific survival (CSS) were improved in stage II and III patients who underwent surgery and radiotherapy compared with patients who underwent surgery alone. These results were further confirmed following propensity score matching. In addition, radiotherapy was deemed as independent good prognostic factor in patient with MAC/SRC. In subgroup analysis, the result also demonstrated that long-term survival was improved following radiotherapy. However, there was no prognostic difference between preoperative and postoperative radiotherapy. In conclusion, radiotherapy could improve survival for RC patients with MAC and SRC, but only for patients in stage II and III. This finding supported the application of radiotherapy in clinical practice. PMID:28272410

  14. Stochastic delocalization of finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geyrhofer, Lukas; Hallatschek, Oskar

    2013-01-01

    The localization of populations of replicating bacteria, viruses or autocatalytic chemicals arises in various contexts, such as ecology, evolution, medicine or chemistry. Several deterministic mathematical models have been used to characterize the conditions under which localized states can form, and how they break down due to convective driving forces. It has been repeatedly found that populations remain localized unless the bias exceeds a critical threshold value, and that close to the transition the population is characterized by a diverging length scale. These results, however, have been obtained upon ignoring number fluctuations (‘genetic drift’), which are inevitable given the discreteness of the replicating entities. Here, we study the localization/delocalization of a finite population in the presence of genetic drift. The population is modeled by a linear chain of subpopulations, or demes, which exchange migrants at a constant rate. Individuals in one particular deme, called ‘oasis’, receive a growth rate benefit, and the total population is regulated to have constant size N. In this ecological setting, we find that any finite population delocalizes on sufficiently long time scales. Depending on parameters, however, populations may remain localized for a very long time. The typical waiting time to delocalization increases exponentially with both population size and distance to the critical wind speed of the deterministic approximation. We augment these simulation results by a mathematical analysis that treats the reproduction and migration of individuals as branching random walks subject to global constraints. For a particular constraint, different from a fixed population size constraint, this model yields a solvable first moment equation. We find that this solvable model approximates very well the fixed population size model for large populations, but starts to deviate as population sizes are small. Nevertheless, the qualitative behavior of the

  15. Long-Term Impact of an Electronic Health Record-Enabled, Team-Based, and Scalable Population Health Strategy Based on the Chronic Care Model.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Kensaku; Anstrom, Kevin J; Anderson, John B; Bosworth, Hayden B; Lobach, David F; McAdam-Marx, Carrie; Ferranti, Jeffrey M; Shang, Howard; Yarnall, Kimberly S H

    2016-01-01

    The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is a promising framework for improving population health, but little is known regarding the long-term impact of scalable, informatics-enabled interventions based on this model. To address this challenge, this study evaluated the long-term impact of implementing a scalable, electronic health record (EHR)- enabled, and CCM-based population health program to replace a labor-intensive legacy program in 18 primary care practices. Interventions included point-of-care decision support, quality reporting, team-based care, patient engagement, and provider education. Among 6,768 patients with diabetes receiving care over 4 years, hemoglobin A1c levels remained stable during the 2-year pre-intervention and post-intervention periods (0.03% and 0% increases, respectively), compared to a 0.42% increase expected based on A1c progression observed in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study long-term outcomes cohort. The results indicate that an EHR-enabled, team- based, and scalable population health strategy based on the CCM may be effective and efficient for managing population health.

  16. Long-Term Impact of an Electronic Health Record-Enabled, Team-Based, and Scalable Population Health Strategy Based on the Chronic Care Model

    PubMed Central

    Kawamoto, Kensaku; Anstrom, Kevin J; Anderson, John B; Bosworth, Hayden B; Lobach, David F; McAdam-Marx, Carrie; Ferranti, Jeffrey M; Shang, Howard; Yarnall, Kimberly S H

    2016-01-01

    The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is a promising framework for improving population health, but little is known regarding the long-term impact of scalable, informatics-enabled interventions based on this model. To address this challenge, this study evaluated the long-term impact of implementing a scalable, electronic health record (EHR)- enabled, and CCM-based population health program to replace a labor-intensive legacy program in 18 primary care practices. Interventions included point-of-care decision support, quality reporting, team-based care, patient engagement, and provider education. Among 6,768 patients with diabetes receiving care over 4 years, hemoglobin A1c levels remained stable during the 2-year pre-intervention and post-intervention periods (0.03% and 0% increases, respectively), compared to a 0.42% increase expected based on A1c progression observed in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study long-term outcomes cohort. The results indicate that an EHR-enabled, team- based, and scalable population health strategy based on the CCM may be effective and efficient for managing population health. PMID:28269865

  17. Long-Term Two-Photon Calcium Imaging of Neuronal Populations with Subcellular Resolution in Adult Non-human Primates.

    PubMed

    Sadakane, Osamu; Masamizu, Yoshito; Watakabe, Akiya; Terada, Shin-Ichiro; Ohtsuka, Masanari; Takaji, Masafumi; Mizukami, Hiroaki; Ozawa, Keiya; Kawasaki, Hiroshi; Matsuzaki, Masanori; Yamamori, Tetsuo

    2015-12-01

    Two-photon imaging with genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs) enables long-term observation of neuronal activity in vivo. However, there are very few studies of GECIs in primates. Here, we report a method for long-term imaging of a GECI, GCaMP6f, expressed from adeno-associated virus vectors in cortical neurons of the adult common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus), a small New World primate. We used a tetracycline-inducible expression system to robustly amplify neuronal GCaMP6f expression and up- and downregulate it for more than 100 days. We succeeded in monitoring spontaneous activity not only from hundreds of neurons three-dimensionally distributed in layers 2 and 3 but also from single dendrites and axons in layer 1. Furthermore, we detected selective activities from somata, dendrites, and axons in the somatosensory cortex responding to specific tactile stimuli. Our results provide a way to investigate the organization and plasticity of cortical microcircuits at subcellular resolution in non-human primates.

  18. Body Size and Geographic Range Do Not Explain Long Term Variation in Fish Populations: A Bayesian Phylogenetic Approach to Testing Assembly Processes in Stream Fish Assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Jacquemin, Stephen J.; Doll, Jason C.

    2014-01-01

    We combine evolutionary biology and community ecology to test whether two species traits, body size and geographic range, explain long term variation in local scale freshwater stream fish assemblages. Body size and geographic range are expected to influence several aspects of fish ecology, via relationships with niche breadth, dispersal, and abundance. These traits are expected to scale inversely with niche breadth or current abundance, and to scale directly with dispersal potential. However, their utility to explain long term temporal patterns in local scale abundance is not known. Comparative methods employing an existing molecular phylogeny were used to incorporate evolutionary relatedness in a test for covariation of body size and geographic range with long term (1983 – 2010) local scale population variation of fishes in West Fork White River (Indiana, USA). The Bayesian model incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty and correlated predictors indicated that neither body size nor geographic range explained significant variation in population fluctuations over a 28 year period. Phylogenetic signal data indicated that body size and geographic range were less similar among taxa than expected if trait evolution followed a purely random walk. We interpret this as evidence that local scale population variation may be influenced less by species-level traits such as body size or geographic range, and instead may be influenced more strongly by a taxon’s local scale habitat and biotic assemblages. PMID:24691075

  19. Molecular demographic history of the annual sunflowers Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris--large effective population sizes and rates of long-term gene flow.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2008-08-01

    Hybridization between distinct species may lead to introgression of genes across species boundaries, and this pattern can potentially persist for extended periods as long as selection at some loci or genomic regions prevents thorough mixing of gene pools. However, very few reliable estimates of long-term levels of effective migration are available between hybridizing species throughout their history. Accurate estimates of divergence dates and levels of gene flow require data from multiple unlinked loci as well as an analytical framework that can distinguish between lineage sorting and gene flow and incorporate the effects of demographic changes within each species. Here we use sequence data from 18 anonymous nuclear loci in two broadly sympatric sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, analyzed within an "isolation with migration" framework to make genome-wide estimates of the ages of these two species, long-term rates of gene flow between them, and effective population sizes and historical patterns of population growth. Our results indicate that H. annuus and H. petiolaris are approximately one million years old and have exchanged genes at a surprisingly high rate (long-term N(ef)m estimates of approximately 0.5 in each direction), with somewhat higher rates of introgression from H. annuus into H. petiolaris than vice versa. In addition, each species has undergone dramatic population expansion since divergence, and both species have among the highest levels of genetic diversity reported for flowering plants. Our results provide the most comprehensive estimate to date of long-term patterns of gene flow and historical demography in a nonmodel plant system, and they indicate that species integrity can be maintained even in the face of extensive gene flow over a prolonged period.

  20. The long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover: an empirical analysis based on the panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-02-07

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons · km(-2) and 3,820 persons · km(-2), and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term.

  1. The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-01-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km−2 and 3,820 persons·km−2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  2. Monitoring Tree Population Dynamics in Arid Zone Through Multiple Temporal Scales: Integration of Spatial Analysis, Change Detection and Field Long Term Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaacson, S.; Rachmilevitch, S.; Ephrath, J. E.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

    2016-06-01

    High mortality rates and lack of recruitment in the acacia populations throughout the Negev Desert and the Arava rift valley of Israel have been reported in previous studies. However, it is difficult to determine whether these reports can be evidence to a significant decline trend of the trees populations. This is because of the slow dynamic processes of acaia tree populations and the lack of long term continuous monitoring data. We suggest a new data analysis technique that expands the time scope of the field long term monitoring of trees in arid environments. This will enables us to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of these populations. We implemented two different approaches in order to expand the time scope of the acacia population field survey: (1) individual based tree change detection using Corona satellite images and (2) spatial analysis of trees population, converting spatial data into temporal data. The next step was to integrate the results of the two analysis techniques (change detection and spatial analysis) with field monitoring. This technique can be implemented to other tree populations in arid environments to help assess the vegetation conditions and dynamics of those ecosystems.

  3. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub.

    PubMed

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M; Caldeira, Maria C; Clemente, Adelaide S; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N

    2016-01-01

    Plant-animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs.

  4. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub

    PubMed Central

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M.; Caldeira, Maria C.; Clemente, Adelaide S.; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N.

    2016-01-01

    Plant–animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  5. Differential effects of pentylenetetrazol-kindling on long-term potentiation of population excitatory postsynaptic potentials and population spikes in the CA1 region of rat hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Palizvan, M R; Fathollahi, Y; Semnanian, S; Hajezadeh, S; Mirnajafizadh, J

    2001-04-13

    The effects of pentylenetetrazol-kindling on synaptic transmission and the effectiveness of θ pattern primed-bursts (PBs) for the induction of long-term potentiation (LTP) of population excitatory postsynaptic potentials and population spikes were investigated in hippocampal CA1 of pentylenetetrazol-kindled rats. Experiments were carried out in the control and kindled animals at two post-kindling periods, i.e., 48-144 h (early phase) and 30-33 days (long lasting phase). Field potentials (population excitatory postsynaptic potentials, pEPSPs; and population spikes, PSs) were recorded at the stratum radiatum and the stratum pyramidale following stimulation of the stratum fibers, respectively. PBs were delivered to stratum fibers and PB potentiation was assessed. The results showed that 48-144 h after kindling there was no significant difference for pEPSP slope and PS amplitude between two groups. But at 30-33 days after kindling, the pEPSP slope in the stratum radiatum of kindled animals decreased, whereas the amplitude of PSs increased compared to those of controls. Shortly after kindling, control animals had normal LTP of pEPSP slope and PS amplitude in response to PBs, but kindled rats lack LTP of pEPSP slope and PBs induced LTP of PS amplitude in most of kindled animals. In 30-33 days after kindling, PB potentiation was not observed in the stratum radiatum of kindled animals but PBs induced LTP of PS amplitude, which was significantly greater than that of control animals. The effect is compatible with the hypothesis, which postulates kindling-associated functional deficit in hippocampus, especially CA1, as an explanation for the behavioral deficits seen with the kindling model of epilepsy.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  7. Effect of liver cirrhosis on long-term outcomes after acute respiratory failure: A population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Chih-Cheng; Ho, Chung-Han; Cheng, Kuo-Chen; Chao, Chien-Ming; Chen, Chin-Ming; Chou, Willy

    2017-01-01

    AIM To assessed the effect of liver cirrhosis (LC) on the poorly understood long-term mortality risk after first-ever mechanical ventilation (1-MV) for acute respiratory failure. METHODS All patients in Taiwan given a 1-MV between 1997 and 2013 were identified in Taiwan’s Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000. Each patient with LC was individually matched, using a propensity-score method, to two patients without LC. The primary outcome was death after a 1-MV. RESULTS A total of 16653 patients were enrolled: 5551 LC-positive (LC[Pos]) patients, including 1732 with cryptogenic LCs and 11102 LC-negative (LC[Neg]) controls. LC[Pos] patients had more organ failures and were more likely to be admitted to medical department than were LC[Neg] controls. LC[Pos] patients had a significantly lower survival rate (AHR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.32-1.44). Moreover, the mortality risk was significantly higher for patients with non-cryptogenic LC than for patients with cryptogenic LC (AHR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.32-1.54) and patients without LC (AHR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.32-1.54). However, there was no significant difference between patients with cryptogenic and without LC (HR = 1.05, 95%CI: 0.98-1.12). CONCLUSION LC, especially non-cryptogenic LC, significantly increases the risk of death after a 1-MV.

  8. Long-Term Changes in Cyanobacteria Populations in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel: An Eco-Physiological Outlook

    PubMed Central

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret’s vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  9. Comparison of indigenous and exogenous microbial populations during slurry phase biodegradation of long-term hydrocarbon-contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Aburto-Medina, Arturo; Adetutu, Eric M; Aleer, Sam; Weber, John; Patil, Sayali S; Sheppard, Petra J; Ball, Andrew S; Juhasz, Albert L

    2012-11-01

    In this study, a number of slurry-phase strategies were trialled over a 42 day period in order to determine the efficacy of bioremediation for long-term hydrocarbon-contaminated soil (145 g kg(-1) C(10)-C(40)). The addition of activated sludge and nutrients to slurries (bioaugmentation) resulted in enhanced hydrocarbon removal (51.6 ± 8.5 %) compared to treatments receiving only nutrients (enhanced natural attenuation [ENA]; 41.3 ± 6.4 %) or no amendments (natural attenuation; no significant hydrocarbon removal, P < 0.01). This data suggests that the microbial community in the activated sludge inoculum contributed to the enhanced removal of hydrocarbons in ENA slurries. Microbial diversity in slurries was monitored using DGGE with dominant bands excised and sequenced for identification. Applying the different bioremediation strategies resulted in the formation of four distinct community clusters associated with the activated sludge (inoculum), bioaugmentation strategy at day 0, bioaugmentation strategy at weeks 2-6 and slurries with autoclaved sludge and nutrient additions (bioaugmentation negative control). While hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria genera (e.g. Aquabacterium and Haliscomenobacter) were associated with the hydrocarbon-contaminated soil, bioaugmentation of soil slurries with activated sludge resulted in the introduction of bacteria associated with hydrocarbon degradation (Burkholderiales order and Klebsiella genera) which presumably contributed to the enhanced efficacy for this slurry strategy.

  10. A genome-wide scan for evidence of selection in a maize population under long-term artificial selection for ear number.

    PubMed

    Beissinger, Timothy M; Hirsch, Candice N; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Deshpande, Shweta; Barry, Kerrie; Buell, C Robin; Kaeppler, Shawn M; Gianola, Daniel; de Leon, Natalia

    2014-03-01

    A genome-wide scan to detect evidence of selection was conducted in the Golden Glow maize long-term selection population. The population had been subjected to selection for increased number of ears per plant for 30 generations, with an empirically estimated effective population size ranging from 384 to 667 individuals and an increase of more than threefold in the number of ears per plant. Allele frequencies at >1.2 million single-nucleotide polymorphism loci were estimated from pooled whole-genome resequencing data, and FST values across sliding windows were employed to assess divergence between the population preselection and the population postselection. Twenty-eight highly divergent regions were identified, with half of these regions providing gene-level resolution on potentially selected variants. Approximately 93% of the divergent regions do not demonstrate a significant decrease in heterozygosity, which suggests that they are not approaching fixation. Also, most regions display a pattern consistent with a soft-sweep model as opposed to a hard-sweep model, suggesting that selection mostly operated on standing genetic variation. For at least 25% of the regions, results suggest that selection operated on variants located outside of currently annotated coding regions. These results provide insights into the underlying genetic effects of long-term artificial selection and identification of putative genetic elements underlying number of ears per plant in maize.

  11. Long-Term Outcomes of Systemic Lupus Erythematous Patients after Pregnancy: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Ting-Fang; Chuang, Ya-Wen; Lin, Cheng-Li; Yu, Tung-Min; Chung, Mu-Chi; Li, Chi-Yuan; Chung, Chi-Jung; Ho, Wen-Chao

    2016-01-01

    Background Data on long-term maternal outcomes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are lacking. The study aimed to explore the relationships among SLE, pregnancy, outcomes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and overall mortality. Methods We established a retrospective cohort study consisting of four cohorts: pregnant (case cohort) and nonpregnant SLE patients, as well as pregnant and nonpregnant non-SLE patients. One case cohort and three comparison cohorts were matched by age at first pregnancy and index date of pregnancy by using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Dataset. All study subjects were selected based on the index date to the occurrence of ESRD or overall death. Cox proportional hazard regression models and Kaplan–Meier curves were used in the analysis. Results SLE pregnant patients exhibited significantly increased risk of ESRD after adjusting for other important confounders, including immunosuppressant and parity (HR = 3.19, 95% CI: 1.35–7.52 for pregnant non-SLE; and HR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.24–6.15 for nonpregnant non-SLE patients). No significant differences in ESRD incidence were observed in pregnant and nonpregnant SLE patients. Pregnant SLE patients exhibited better clinical condition at the baseline and a significantly lower risk of overall mortality than nonpregnant SLE patients. Conclusions Our data support current recommendations for SLE patients to avoid pregnancy until disease activity is quiescent. Multicenter recruitment and clinical information can be used to further examine the association of SLE and ESRD (or mortality) after pregnancy. PMID:27992461

  12. Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals

    PubMed Central

    Cordes, Line S.; Thompson, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines. PMID:23782881

  13. Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals.

    PubMed

    Cordes, Line S; Thompson, Paul M

    2013-08-07

    Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines.

  14. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  15. Density-Dependent Recycling Promotes the Long-Term Survival of Bacterial Populations during Periods of Starvation

    PubMed Central

    Takano, Sotaro; Pawlowska, Bogna J.; Gudelj, Ivana

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The amount of natural resources in the Earth’s environment is in flux, which can trigger catastrophic collapses of ecosystems. How populations survive under nutrient-poor conditions is a central question in ecology. Curiously, some bacteria persist for a long time in nutrient-poor environments. Although this survival may be accomplished through cell death and the recycling of dead cells, the importance of these processes and the mechanisms underlying the survival of the populations have not been quantitated. Here, we use microbial laboratory experiments and mathematical models to demonstrate that death and recycling are essential activities for the maintenance of cell survival. We also show that the behavior of the survivors is governed by population density feedback, wherein growth is limited not only by the available resources but also by the population density. The numerical simulations suggest that population density-dependent recycling could be an advantageous behavior under starvation conditions. PMID:28174316

  16. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  17. Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, D.H.; Doak, D.F.; Ballachey, B.E.; Bodkin, J.L.

    2011-01-01

    Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as

  18. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management--Part A: methodology.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada.

  19. Evidence of genetic distinction and long-term population decline in wolves (Canis lupus) in the Italian Apennines.

    PubMed

    Lucchini, V; Galov, A; Randi, E

    2004-03-01

    Historical information suggests the occurrence of an extensive human-caused contraction in the distribution range of wolves (Canis lupus) during the last few centuries in Europe. Wolves disappeared from the Alps in the 1920s, and thereafter continued to decline in peninsular Italy until the 1970s, when approximately 100 individuals survived, isolated in the central Apennines. In this study we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus DNA markers to infer patterns and timing of historical population changes in wolves surviving in the Apennines. This population showed a unique mitochondrial DNA control-region haplotype, the absence of private alleles and lower heterozygosity at microsatellite loci, as compared to other wolf populations. Multivariate, clustering and Bayesian assignment procedures consistently assigned all the wolf genotypes sampled in Italy to a single group, supporting their genetic distinction. Bottleneck tests showed evidences of population decline in the Italian wolves, but not in other populations. Results of a Bayesian coalescent model indicate that wolves in Italy underwent a 100- to 1000-fold population contraction over the past 2000-10,000 years. The population decline was stronger and longer in peninsular Italy than elsewhere in Europe, suggesting that wolves have apparently been genetically isolated for thousands of generations south of the Alps. Ice caps covering the Alps at the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 18,000 years before present), and the wide expansion of the Po River, which cut the alluvial plains throughout the Holocene, might have provided effective geographical barriers to wolf dispersal. More recently, the admixture of Alpine and Apennine wolf populations could have been prevented by deforestation, which was already widespread in the fifteenth century in northern Italy. This study suggests that, despite the high potential rates of dispersal and gene flow, local wolf populations may not have mixed for long periods of time.

  20. Landscape resistance to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects for a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Considerable fragmentation of native habitats and loss of forest cover has occurred in association with agricultural development over the past 50 years in o...

  1. Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

    PubMed Central

    Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games. PMID:28098244

  2. Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games.

  3. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports

    PubMed Central

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-01-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006–2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  4. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-07

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

  5. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences

    PubMed Central

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M.; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S.; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-01-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  6. Reduced flight-to-light behaviour of moth populations exposed to long-term urban light pollution.

    PubMed

    Altermatt, Florian; Ebert, Dieter

    2016-04-01

    The globally increasing light pollution is a well-recognized threat to ecosystems, with negative effects on human, animal and plant wellbeing. The most well-known and widely documented consequence of light pollution is the generally fatal attraction of nocturnal insects to artificial light sources. However, the evolutionary consequences are unknown. Here we report that moth populations from urban areas with high, globally relevant levels of light pollution over several decades show a significantly reduced flight-to-light behaviour compared with populations of the same species from pristine dark-sky habitats. Using a common garden setting, we reared moths from 10 different populations from early-instar larvae and experimentally compared their flight-to-light behaviour under standardized conditions. Moths from urban populations had a significant reduction in the flight-to-light behaviour compared with pristine populations. The reduced attraction to light sources of 'city moths' may directly increase these individuals' survival and reproduction. We anticipate that it comes with a reduced mobility, which negatively affects foraging as well as colonization ability. As nocturnal insects are of eminent significance as pollinators and the primary food source of many vertebrates, an evolutionary change of the flight-to-light behaviour thereby potentially cascades across species interaction networks.

  7. A long-term study of Rattus norvegicus in the London borough of Enfield using baiting returns as an indicator of sewer population levels.

    PubMed Central

    Channon, D.; Cole, M.; Cole, L.

    2000-01-01

    This is a long-term study that investigates the dynamics of a population of Rattus norvegicus (Berk) inhabiting a sewerage system in London. Thirteen years (1986/7-1998/9) of data from sewer baiting records were analysed (a total of 35,478 records). Manholes were baited with the anticoagulant Brodifacoum (0.005%) on a pinhead oatmeal bait base. Time series analysis was conducted on the data set to determine the underlying trend of the data and the population fluctuations about this trend. An exponential curve was found to give an accurate and realistic fit to the data and indicated that the rat population had decreased over the study period. Decomposition analysis indicated a 5-year cycle best described fluctuations around this trend. PMID:11117969

  8. Secondary Surge Capacity: A Framework for Understanding Long-Term Access to Primary Care for Medically Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Recovery

    PubMed Central

    Brock-Martin, Amy; Karmaus, Wilfried; Svendsen, Erik R.

    2012-01-01

    Disasters create a secondary surge in casualties because of the sudden increased need for long-term health care. Surging demands for medical care after a disaster place excess strain on an overtaxed health care system operating at maximum or reduced capacity. We have applied a health services use model to identify areas of vulnerability that perpetuate health disparities for at-risk populations seeking care after a disaster. We have proposed a framework to understand the role of the medical system in modifying the health impact of the secondary surge on vulnerable populations. Baseline assessment of existing needs and the anticipation of ballooning chronic health care needs following the acute response for at-risk populations are overlooked vulnerability gaps in national surge capacity plans. PMID:23078479

  9. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Berkhout, J; Stone, J A; Verhamme, K M; Stricker, B H; Sturkenboom, M C; Danhof, M; Post, T M

    2015-09-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis.

  10. Long-term survival after coronary bypass surgery. Comparison of various subsets of patients with general population.

    PubMed Central

    Greene, D G; Bunnell, I L; Arani, D T; Schimert, G; Lajos, T Z; Lee, A B; Tandon, R N; Zimdahl, W T; Bozer, J M; Kohn, R M; Visco, J P; Dean, D C; Smith, G L

    1981-01-01

    Life-table analysis consecutive cases of isolated coronary bypass surgery at the Buffalo Hospital between 1973 and 1977 showed an estimated survival of 94 per cent at five years, equal to that of an age- and sex-matched group of the US population. Subsets of these patients divided according to sex, age, number of vessels narrowed, number of segments grafted, history of myocardial infarction, ejection fraction, and presence of unstable angina have estimated survivals not statistically less in any of these subsets than that of matched cohorts of the general population. PMID:6971646

  11. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    DOEpatents

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  12. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    SciTech Connect

    Stampfer, Martha R.; Garbe, James C.

    2016-06-28

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  13. High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

    PubMed Central

    Provan, Jim; Beatty, Gemma E.; Keating, Sianan L.; Maggs, Christine A.; Savidge, Graham

    2008-01-01

    The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000–566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change. PMID:18812293

  14. Earthworm populations are affected from Long-Term Crop Sequences and Bio-Covers under No-Tillage

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Earthworms are crucial for improving soil biophysical properties in cropping systems. Consequently, effects of cropping rotation and bio-covers were assessed on earthworm populations under no-tillage sites. Main effects of 6 different cropping sequences [corn (Zea mays), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum),...

  15. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

    PubMed Central

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  16. Alcohol Habits in Patients with Long-Term Musculoskeletal Pain: Comparison with a Matched Control Group from the General Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thelin Bronner, Kerstin Birgitta; Wennberg, Peter; Kallmen, Hakan; Schult, Marie-Louise Birgitta

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to describe alcohol habits in patients with chronic pain compared with those in a matched control group from the general Swedish population. In total, 100 consecutive patients enrolled were matched against 100 individuals in a control group on the basis of age and sex. Alcohol habits were measured using the Alcohol Use…

  17. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.

  18. Mid- and long-term effects of family constellation seminars in a general population sample: 8- and 12-month follow-up.

    PubMed

    Hunger, Christina; Weinhold, Jan; Bornhäuser, Annette; Link, Leoni; Schweitzer, Jochen

    2015-06-01

    In a previous randomized controlled trial (RCT), short-term efficacy of family constellation seminars (FCSs) in a general population sample was demonstrated. In this article, we examined mid- and long-term stability of these effects. Participants were 104 adults (M = 47 years; SD = 9; 84% female) who were part of the intervention group in the original RCT (3-day FCS; 64 active participants and 40 observing participants). FCSs were carried out according to manuals. It was predicted that FCSs would improve psychological functioning (Outcome Questionnaire OQ-45.2) at 8- and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, we assessed the effects of FCSs on psychological distress, motivational incongruence, individuals' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. Participants yielded significant improvement in psychological functioning (d = 0.41 at 8-month follow-up, p = .000; d = 0.40 at 12-month follow-up, p = .000). Results were confirmed for psychological distress, motivational incongruence, the participants' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. No adverse events were reported. This study provides first evidence for the mid- and long-term efficacy of FCSs in a nonclinical population. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  19. Increased uptake of social security benefits among long-term survivors of cancer in childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a Norwegian population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ghaderi, S; Engeland, A; Moster, D; Ruud, E; Syse, A; Wesenberg, F; Bjørge, T

    2013-01-01

    Background: As the number of cancer survivors increases, their health and welfare have come into focus. Thus, long-term medical consequences of cancer at a young age (<25 years), obtained from social security benefit records, were studied. Methods: Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) of long-term medical consequences for 5-year cancer survivors, born during 1965–1985, were explored by linking population-based registries in Norway. Results: Among the 5-year cancer survivors (4031 individuals), 29.7% received social security benefits. The survivors had an overall 4.4 times (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 4.1–4.6) higher risk of social security benefit uptake than the cancer-free population. Survivors of malignancies of bone and connective tissues (SIR: 10.8; 95% CI: 9.1–12.9), CNS tumours (SIR: 7.7; 95% CI: 6.9–8.6) and malignancies of the haematopoietic system (SIR: 6.1; 95% CI: 5.3–7.0) had the highest risks of social security benefits uptake. The most notified causes of social security benefit uptake were diseases of the nervous system, and injury and poisoning. Conclusion: The uptake of social security benefits among 5-year cancer survivors increased substantially and it may represent a solid outcome measure for the burden of the most severe late effects, especially in countries with comparable social welfare systems. PMID:23481179

  20. [The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

    PubMed

    Kytir, J

    1995-01-01

    "The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

  1. Adrenocortical carcinoma in children: first population-based clinicopathological study with long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Kerkhofs, T M A; Ettaieb, M H T; Verhoeven, R H A; Kaspers, G J L; Tissing, W J E; Loeffen, J; Van den Heuvel-Eibrink, M M; De Krijger, R R; Haak, H R

    2014-12-01

    Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is rare in both adult and pediatric populations. Literature suggests significant differences between children and adults in presentation, histological properties and outcome. The aim of this first nationwide study on pediatric ACC was to describe the incidence, presentation, pathological characteristics, treatment and survival in The Netherlands. All ACC patients aged <20 years at diagnosis and registered in the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2010 were included. Clinical data were extracted from medical records. Archival histological slides were collected via the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). We compared our findings to all clinical studies on pediatric ACC that were found on PubMed. Based on the results, 12 patients were identified: 8 females and 4 males. The median age was 4.1 years (range 1.1-18.6). The population-based age-standardized incidence rate for patients <20 years was 0.18 per million person-years. Autonomous hormonal secretion was present in 10 patients. Seven patients were aged ≤4 years at diagnosis, 5 presented with localized disease and 2 with locally advanced disease. Five patients were aged ≥5 years, 3 presented with distant metastases and 1 with locally advanced disease. For all patients, histological examination displayed malignant characteristics. All patients aged ≤4 years at diagnosis survived; the median follow-up was 97 months (57-179 months). All patients aged ≥5 years died; the median survival was 6 months (0-38 months). Pediatric ACC is extremely rare in the Western world. The clinical outcome was remarkably better in patients aged ≤4 years. This is in accordance with less advanced stage of disease at presentation, yet contrasts with the presence of adverse histological characteristics. Clinical management in advanced disease is adapted from adult practice in the absence of evidence regarding pediatric ACC.

  2. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-05-26

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility.

  3. Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

    PubMed

    Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2016-11-30

    Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics.

  4. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Colin A.; Schoof, Valérie A. M.; Bonnell, Tyler R.; Gogarten, Jan F.; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  5. Long-term assessment of wild boar harvesting and cattle removal for bovine tuberculosis control in free ranging populations.

    PubMed

    Mentaberre, Gregorio; Romero, Beatriz; de Juan, Lucía; Navarro-González, Nora; Velarde, Roser; Mateos, Ana; Marco, Ignasi; Olivé-Boix, Xavier; Domínguez, Lucas; Lavín, Santiago; Serrano, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Wild boar is a recognized reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Mediterranean ecosystems, but information is scarce outside of hotspots in southern Spain. We describe the first high-prevalence focus of TB in a non-managed wild boar population in northern Spain and the result of eight years of TB management. Measures implemented for disease control included the control of the local wild boar population through culling and stamping out of a sympatric infected cattle herd. Post-mortem inspection for detection of tuberculosis-like lesions as well as cultures from selected head and cervical lymph nodes was done in 745 wild boar, 355 Iberian ibexes and five cattle between 2004 and 2012. The seasonal prevalence of TB reached 70% amongst adult wild boar and ten different spoligotypes and 13 MIRU-VNTR profiles were detected, although more than half of the isolates were included in the same clonal complex. Only 11% of infected boars had generalized lesions. None of the ibexes were affected, supporting their irrelevance in the epidemiology of TB. An infected cattle herd grazed the zone where 168 of the 197 infected boars were harvested. Cattle removal and wild boar culling together contributed to a decrease in TB prevalence. The need for holistic, sustained over time, intensive and adapted TB control strategies taking into account the multi-host nature of the disease is highlighted. The potential risk for tuberculosis emergence in wildlife scenarios where the risk is assumed to be low should be addressed.

  6. Long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (Croatia) related to eutrophication patterns in the northern Adriatic Sea.

    PubMed

    Iveša, Ljiljana; Djakovac, Tamara; Devescovi, Massimo

    2016-05-15

    An exploration of historical data suggested that eutrophication patterns might drive long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (northern Adriatic Sea, Croatia). The regimes of northern Italian rivers, which flow approximately 100km west of the study area, mainly modulate the eutrophication levels of the northern Adriatic Sea. A regression of Cystoseira populations from the 1970s through the 1990s corresponded to increased levels of eutrophication in the study area. During the late 1990s, the density of sea urchins, which are efficacious macroalgal predators, decreased, likely due to an intense formation of pelagic mucilage aggregates that resulted in mass mortality episodes of macrozoobenthic species. During the 2000-2013 period, an oligotrophication of the northern Adriatic formed the basis for the recovery of Cystoseira taxa, whose abundances from 2009 to 2013 were similar to those characterising the most flourishing Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages.

  7. Long-term temporal trends and estimated transmission rates for Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed high-density badger (Meles meles) population.

    PubMed

    Delahay, R J; Walker, N; Smith, G C; Smith, G S; Wilkinson, D; Clifton-Hadley, R S; Cheeseman, C L; Tomlinson, A J; Chambers, M A

    2013-07-01

    We describe epidemiological trends in Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed wild badger (Meles meles) population. Data were derived from the capture, clinical sampling and serological testing of 1803 badgers over 9945 capture events spanning 24 years. Incidence and prevalence increased over time, exhibiting no simple relationship with host density. Potential explanations are presented for a marked increase in the frequency of positive serological test results. Transmission rates (R0) estimated from empirical data were consistent with modelled estimates and robust to changes in test sensitivity and the spatial extent of the population at risk. The risk of a positive culture or serological test result increased with badger age, and varied seasonally. Evidence consistent with progressive disease was found in cubs. This study demonstrates the value of long-term data and the repeated application of imperfect diagnostic tests as indices of infection to reveal epidemiological trends in M. bovis infection in badgers.

  8. Some results of long-term investigation population exposed as a result of release of radioactive wastes into the Techa River in Southern Urals

    SciTech Connect

    Degteva, M.O.; Kozheurov, V.P.; Vorobiova, M.I.

    1992-06-01

    This paper describes results of a long-term investigation of a population exposed to radioactive waste release in 1949-1956 into the Techa River in the Southern Urals. Systematic measurements of radionuclide concentration in the river waters, sediments, and floodplain soils and measurements of exposure gamma dose rates as well as studies of the radionuclide composition in the contaminated areas began in the summer of 1951. As a result of the contamination, 124,000 residents were exposed to radiation and 28,100 received significant doses in terms of health effect potential. Covered results include the following: estimation of external radiation doses; content of strontium-90 in humans and estimation of radionuclide ingestion rates; age-dependent model of strontium metabolism in the human body; evaluation of doses of internal irradiation; distribution of exposed population according to accumulated doses. 11 refs; 15 figs.

  9. Response of microbial community of tundra soil to global warming: Simulation of seasonal and long-term population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Panikov, N.S.

    1994-11-01

    A mathematical model has been constructed and verified to simulate dynamics of a microbial community in typical tundra. The model contains the following state variables: the population densities of three competing microbial species (exemplified by Arthrobacter, Pseudomonas, and Bacillus), indexes of their physiological state, concentration of available organic substrate, plant litter reserves, the amount of microbiovorous protozoans, and temperature. The mathematical model simulates adequately the qualitative features of microbial seasonal dynamics observed in tundra. The global warming and associated increase in primary productivity, as predicted by simulation, will relieve the pressure of L-selection and thus result in stabilization of the tundra microbial community. The model also predicts that aerobic decomposition of dead organic matter in solid will be accelerated compared to its formation. 24 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  10. Population regulation in a changing environment: Long-term changes in growth, condition and survival of sprat, Sprattus sprattus L. in the Bristol Channel, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henderson, Peter A.; Henderson, Rowena C.

    2017-02-01

    Sprat, Sprattus sprattus, is the dominant pelagic species in British inshore and estuarine waters. Within the Bristol Channel the population is almost totally composed of fish < 3 years old with the adults overwintering in Bridgwater Bay. Sprat follow regular seasonal migrations and occasionally form huge aggregations which together generate considerable between sample variability. Using a 36-year monthly time series collected in the Bristol Channel since 1980, together with two periods of intensive daily and weekly sampling, sprat growth is shown to have declined almost linearly over the last 36 years coincident with increasing late summer-autumn seawater temperatures. Longevity has also declined, with age 3 + sprat > 140 mm standard length lost to the population by 1999. Further, adult condition, measured as the average weight of a 103 mm standard length adult, declined rapidly from 13.7 g in 2007 to 9 g in 2011. Despite these changes, which would have reduced age-specific fecundity, a sign-rank test showed abundance of adult sprat has shown no long-term trend and Bulmer's test indicates density-dependent regulation is operating. While sprat recruitment is shown to be responding to the sunspot cycle, the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea water temperature, the impact of these variables on adult population density is damped because of density-dependent regulation. The result is that sprat respond to environmental change with large changes in their growth and condition, but the adult abundance is constrained and shows no long-term trend. Recruitment was modelled by combining a Ricker curve with terms for the response of sprat to solar activity, the North Atlantic Oscillation and spring temperature. It is shown that the stock-recruitment relationship does not form a simple curve, but is bounded within a region in which the upper and lower constraints are defined by environmental conditions. Within this bounded region the population trajectory under differing

  11. The Phenology of Ticks and the Effects of Long-Term Prescribed Burning on Tick Population Dynamics in Southwestern Georgia and Northwestern Florida

    PubMed Central

    Gleim, Elizabeth R.; Conner, L. Mike; Berghaus, Roy D.; Levin, Michael L.; Zemtsova, Galina E.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  12. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates

    PubMed Central

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-terWengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-01-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  13. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates.

    PubMed

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-Terwengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-02-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000-12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000-67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700-44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70-110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity.

  14. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  15. Short and long term mortality rates associated with first pregnancy outcome: Population register based study for Denmark 1980–2004

    PubMed Central

    Reardon, David C.; Coleman, Priscilla K.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background There is a growing interest in examining death rates associated with different pregnancy outcomes for time periods beyond one year. Previous population studies, however, have failed to control for complete reproductive histories. In this study we seek to eliminate the potential confounding effect of unknown prior pregnancy history by examining mortality rates associated specifically with first pregnancy outcome alone. We also examine differences in mortality rates associated with early abortion and late abortions (after 12 weeks). Material/Method Medical records for the entire population of women born in Denmark between 1962 and 1991 and were alive in 1980, were linked to death certificates. Mortality rates associated with first pregnancy outcomes (delivery, miscarriage, abortion, and late abortion) were calculated. Odds ratios examining death rates based on reproductive outcomes, adjusted for age at first pregnancy and year of women’s births, were also calculated. Results A total of 463,473 women had their first pregnancy between 1980 and 2004, of whom 2,238 died. In nearly all time periods examined, mortality rates associated with miscarriage or abortion of a first pregnancy were higher than those associated with birth. Compared to women who delivered, the age and birth year adjusted cumulative risk of death for women who had a first trimester abortion was significantly higher in all periods examined, from 180 days (OR=1.84; 1.11 <95% CI <3.71) through 10 years (1.39; 1.22 <95% CI <1.61), as was the risk for women who had abortions after 12 weeks from one year (OR=4.31; 2.18 <95% CI <8.54) through 10 years (OR=2.41; 1.56 <95% CI <2.41). For women who miscarried, the risk was significantly higher for cumulative deaths through 4 years (OR=1.75; 1.34 <95% CI <2.27) and at 10 years (OR=1.48; 1.18 <95% CI <1.85). Conclusions Compared to women who delivered, women who had an early or late abortion had significantly higher mortality rates within 1

  16. Occurrence and Prevalence of Insect Pathogens in Populations of the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella L.: A Long-Term Diagnostic Survey

    PubMed Central

    Zimmermann, Gisbert; Huger, Alois M.; Kleespies, Regina G.

    2013-01-01

    About 20,550 larvae, pupae and adults of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella L., were diagnosed for pathogens during long-term investigations (1955–2012) at the Institute for Biological Control in Darmstadt, Germany. The prevailing entomopathogens diagnosed in these studies were insect pathogenic fungi, especially Beauveria bassiana and Isaria farinosa, the microsporidium, Nosema carpocapsae, the Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV), as well as mostly undetermined bacteria. While the CpGV was observed exclusively in larvae and pupae from laboratory colonies or from field experiments with this virus, entomopathogenic fungi were most frequently diagnosed in last instars in autumn and in diapausing larvae and pupae in spring. B. bassiana was identified as the major fungal pathogen, causing larval prevalences of 0.9% to 100% (mean, about 32%). During prognostic long-term studies in larvae and adults of C. pomonella, N. carpocapsae was diagnosed in codling moth populations from various locations in Germany. The mean prevalence generally ranged between 20% and 50%. Experiments revealed that the fecundity and fertility of microsporidia-infected female adults were significantly reduced compared to healthy ones. The results underpin the importance of naturally occurring microbial antagonists and represent a base for further ecological studies on developing new or additional biological and integrated control strategies. PMID:26462428

  17. Walleye consumption and long-term population trends following gizzard shad introduction into a Western South Dakota reservoir

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, M.J.; Willis, D.W.; Miller, B.H.; Chipps, S.R.

    2007-01-01

    The gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) was introduced into 1,955-ha Angostura Reservoir, South Dakota to provide increased prey resources for walleye (Sander vitreus). Linear correlation analysis indicated that following gizzard shad introduction, walleye catch-per-unit-effort and mean length at age have increased over time (r = 0.68 to 0.85, P = 0.02 to 0.001). Walleye stomach contents were collected monthly from April through September, 2004 to determine the extent to which age-0 gizzard shad were being utilized as prey during the growing season. Age-0 gizzard shad were absent from walleye diets from April to mid-July (pre-shad-available period); however, from mid-July through early September (shad-available period), age-0 gizzard shad were an important prey item in all walleye diets. Mean weight decreased for walleyes of ages 2-5 during the spring, before age-0 gizzard shad became available; however, growth rate of walleyes increased appreciably during the shad-available period and was attributable to consumption of age-0 shad prey. In Angostura Reservoir, which lies at the northwestern edge of the gizzard shad range, walleye population characteristics have improved following shad introduction and during 2004, age-0 shad directly affected walleye feeding and growth.

  18. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  19. Resource limitation in natural populations of phytophagous insects. A long-term study case with the chestnut weevil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Debouzie, Domitien; Desouhant, Emmanuel; Oberli, Frantz; Menu, Frédéric

    2002-03-01

    The chestnut weevil, Curculio elephas (Gyll.), is a non-outbreaking species whose populations and food resources, the European chestnut, Castanea sativa, can be precisely defined. Thirteen and 17 generations of this insect were studied in two isolated sites. Field observations and experiments allowed us to estimate the absolute abundance, availability and use of chestnuts for weevil oviposition, and the number of weevil females emerging per site. Unavailable chestnuts were defined as the fruits either infested first by the chestnut moth ( Cydia splendana) larvae (because of competition between the two species) or those avoided by chestnut weevil females when selecting their egg-laying sites, independently of chestnut moth presence. From a third to a half of the chestnuts were not available on the average for weevil infestation. Only one-fourth, on the average, of those available for oviposition were actually used by chestnut weevil females. Regardless of year and site, the number of available chestnuts per weevil female was higher than that of weevil-infested fruits per female, considering global food resources independently of their temporal variation in quality. However, realized fecundity of weevil females was positively correlated with the mean number of available chestnuts per female. We concluded that food resources can be limiting without being fully exploited by females because of temporal variation in chestnut quality.

  20. Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2015-09-10

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic

  1. Long-term analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in population dynamics and demography of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chacin, D. H.; Switzer, T. S.; Ainsworth, C. H.; Stallings, C. D.

    2016-12-01

    In estuarine systems, proximity to the ocean has the potential to directly and indirectly drive patterns of fish distribution and population dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-independent data and quantified patterns of density, biomass, and growth rates of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across spatial and temporal scales in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Spatially, the highest density and biomass were found in the outermost regions (closest to the Gulf of Mexico) of the Bay, and these patterns were generally consistent temporally. Inter-annually, Pinfish density and biomass were the highest during periods coinciding with favorable oceanographic conditions (e.g., anomalously intense and prolonged upwelling) for across-shelf transport of larvae from spawning grounds in the Gulf to Tampa Bay. Intra-annually, density and biomass were the highest during spring and summer likely due to the combined effects of spawning timing (and delivery of new settlers), and high somatic growth fueled by increased secondary and primary productivity. Declines in density and biomass during the late summer through early winter were possibly due to high post-settlement mortality and egress to offshore habitats. Pinfish increased predictably in size across the months of the calendar year, and tended to be larger and grew faster in the innermost regions of the Bay, which were located farthest from the Gulf. Pinfish density was related to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, with the outermost regions of the Bay having greater seagrass cover, higher salinity, and being closer to the offshore larval pool where spawning occurs. Thus, this study provided evidence that distance to the ocean was an important driver of biotic and abiotic factors that influenced Pinfish demographic rates across spatial and temporal scales in the largest estuary in Florida.

  2. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    PubMed

    Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

    2013-01-01

    Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote

  3. Population-level Consequences of Breeding Phenology in Response to Climate Variability in Seabirds and Landbirds: Two Long-term Studies From California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warzybok, P.; Nur, N.; Bradley, R.; Sydeman, W. J.; Abraham, C.; Chase, M. K.

    2007-12-01

    Long-term studies conducted on breeding populations on the Farallon Islands (1971 to 2007) and in the Point Reyes National Seashore (1980 to 2007), provide the means to characterize breeding phenology of seabird and landbird species and determine how that has changed over multiple temporal scales (variation among years, among decades, shifts in ocean regimes, etc.). However, to interpret phenological patterns and shifts requires information on the demography and ecological context of these species. Here we describe studies on three seabird species (Common Murre Uria aalge, Cassin's Auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, Brandt's Cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus) where we have tied changes in breeding phenology, within a year, and among years, to demographic consequences (reproductive success, proportion of the population that breeds, adult survival, etc.). In addition, for these species we have information on diet choice of parents feeding chicks and how that has varied within and among years, as well as oceanographic correlates (sea surface temperature, upwelling indices, etc). Results reveal marked variation among the species in their response to oceanographic and climate variability, reflecting their different ecologies. We describe how these results can be used to forecast response to future climate change, as well as to interpret year by response to climate variability. We also summarize results from a long-term study of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), where we have investigated onset and termination of breeding and the climate factors that may influence it, while identifying the population-level responses associated with phenological shifts. We close by making recommendations for large-scale monitoring of phenology based on these more localized studies.

  4. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

    PubMed

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-09-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size.

  5. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

    PubMed Central

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-01-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  6. Moving house: long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are unaltered in translocated populations of a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus)

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Lindsay E.; Cree, Alison; Towns, David R.; Nelson, Nicola J.

    2015-01-01

    Translocations are an important conservation tool used to restore at-risk species to their historical range. Unavoidable procedures during translocations, such as habitat disturbance, capture, handling, processing, captivity, transport and release to a novel environment, have the potential to be stressful for most species. In this study, we examined acute and chronic stress (through the measurement of the glucocorticoid corticosterone) in a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus). We found that: (i) the acute corticosterone response remains elevated during the initial translocation process but is not amplified by cumulative stressors; and (ii) the long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are similar in translocated and source populations. Taken together, our results show that translocated tuatara are generally resistant to cumulative acute stressors and show no hormonal sign of chronic stress. Translocation efforts in tuatara afford the potential to reduce extinction risk and restore natural ecosystems. PMID:27293699

  7. Recent trends in long-term survival of patients with chronic myelocytic leukemia: disclosing the impact of advances in therapy on the population level.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Gondos, Adam; Pulte, Dianne

    2008-10-01

    Within the past decades, major advances in therapy for chronic myelocytic leukemia, including allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, interferon therapy, and, more recently, also therapy with the tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib, have entered clinical practice. The impact of these advances on long-term survival on the population level should be disclosed as timely as possible. We estimated trends in age specific 5- and 10-year relative survival of chronic myelocytic leukemia patients in the United States from 1990-1992 to 2002-2004. Our analysis is based on records from 8,329 patients aged 15 years or older with a first diagnosis of chronic myelocytic leukemia included in the 1973-2004 data base of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Period analysis was used to disclose recent developments with minimum delay. Overall, 5-year relative survival increased from 27 to 49%, and 10-year relative survival increased from 9.5 to 34% between 1990-92 and 2002-04. The increase was most dramatic for younger patients, with 10-year relative survival increasing from 16 to 72% in age group 15-44 years, from 12 to 54% in age group 45-54 years, and from 8 to 34% in age group 55-64 years (p<0.0001 in all cases). Improvements were more modest and not statistically significant, and survival remained at much lower levels among age groups 65-74 and 75+ years. Our analysis discloses a dramatic recent increase in long-term survival of younger patients with chronic myelocytic leukemia which most likely reflects rapid dissemination of advances in therapy on the population level.

  8. Declining Long-Term Risk of Adverse Events after First-time Community-presenting Venous Thromboembolism: The Population-based Worcester VTE Study (1999 to 2009)

    PubMed Central

    Huang, W.; Goldberg, R.J.; Cohen, A.T.; Anderson, F.A.; Kiefe, C.I.; Gore, J.M.; Spencer, F.A.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Contemporary trends in health-care delivery are shifting the management of venous thromboembolism (VTE) events (deep vein thrombosis [DVT] and/or pulmonary embolism [PE]) from the hospital to the community, which may have implications for its prevention, treatment, and outcomes. Materials and Methods Population-based surveillance study monitoring trends in clinical epidemiology among residents of the Worcester, Massachusetts, metropolitan statistical area (WMSA) diagnosed with an acute VTE in all 12 WMSA hospitals. Patients were followed for up to 3 years after their index event. Total of 2334 WMSA residents diagnosed with first-time community-presenting VTE (occurring in an ambulatory setting or diagnosed within 24 hours of hospitalization) from 1999 through 2009. Results While PE patients were consistently admitted to the hospital for treatment over time, the proportion diagnosed with DVT-alone admitted to the hospital decreased from 67% in 1999 to 37% in 2009 (p value for trend <0.001). Among hospitalized patients, the mean length of stay decreased from 5.6 to 4.8 days (p value for trend <0.001). Between 1999 and 2009, treatment of VTE shifted from warfarin and unfractionated heparin towards use of low-molecular-weight heparins and newer anticoagulants; also, 3-year cumulative event rates decreased for all-cause mortality (41–26%), major bleeding (12–6%), and recurrent VTE (17–9%). Conclusions A decade of change in VTE management was accompanied by improved long-term outcomes. However, rates of adverse events remained fairly high in our population-based surveillance study, implying that new risk-assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk for developing major adverse outcomes over the long-term are needed. PMID:25921936

  9. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    SciTech Connect

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  10. Causes of Morbidity in Wild Raptor Populations Admitted at a Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre in Spain from 1995-2007: A Long Term Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Molina-López, Rafael A.; Casal, Jordi; Darwich, Laila

    2011-01-01

    Background Morbidity studies complement the understanding of hazards to raptors by identifying natural or anthropogenic factors. Descriptive epidemiological studies of wildlife have become an important source of information about hazards to wildlife populations. On the other hand, data referenced to the overall wild population could provide a more accurate assessment of the potential impact of the morbidity/mortality causes in populations of wild birds. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study described the morbidity causes of hospitalized wild raptors and their incidence in the wild populations, through a long term retrospective study conducted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre of Catalonia (1995–2007). Importantly, Seasonal Cumulative Incidences (SCI) were calculated considering estimations of the wild population in the region and trend analyses were applied among the different years. A total of 7021 birds were analysed: 7 species of Strigiformes (n = 3521) and 23 of Falconiformes (n = 3500). The main causes of morbidity were trauma (49.5%), mostly in the Falconiformes, and orphaned/young birds (32.2%) mainly in the Strigiformes. During wintering periods, the largest morbidity incidence was observed in Accipiter gentillis due to gunshot wounds and in Tyto alba due to vehicle trauma. Within the breeding season, Falco tinnunculus (orphaned/young category) and Bubo bubo (electrocution and metabolic disorders) represented the most affected species. Cases due to orphaned/young, infectious/parasitic diseases, electrocution and unknown trauma tended to increase among years. By contrast, cases by undetermined cause, vehicle trauma and captivity decreased throughout the study period. Interestingly, gunshot injuries remained constant during the study period. Conclusions/Significance Frequencies of morbidity causes calculated as the proportion of each cause referred to the total number of admitted cases, allowed a qualitative assessment of hazards for

  11. Long-term Formation of Aggressive Bony Lesions in Dogs with Mid-Diaphyseal Fractures Stabilized with Metallic Plates: Incidence in a Tertiary Referral Hospital Population

    PubMed Central

    Gilley, Robert S.; Hiebert, Elizabeth; Clapp, Kemba; Bartl-Wilson, Lara; Nappier, Michael; Werre, Stephen; Barnes, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of complications secondary to fracture stabilization, particularly osteolytic lesions and bony tumor formation, has long been difficult to evaluate. The objective of this study was to describe the long-term incidence of aggressive bony changes developing in dogs with long bone diaphyseal fractures stabilized by metallic bone plates compared to a breed-, sex-, and age-matched control group. The medical records of a tertiary referral center were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that matched each respective criterion. Signalment, history, cause of death (if applicable), and aggressive bony changes at previous fracture sites were recorded. Ninety dogs met the criteria for inclusion in the fracture group and were matched with appropriate control dogs. Four of the dogs in the fracture group developed aggressive bony changes at the site of previous fracture repairs most consistent with osseous neoplasia. One lesion was confirmed with cytology as neoplastic. The population of dogs was mixed with regard to breed and body weight, but all dogs with aggressive bony lesions were male. Incidence of aggressive bony lesion formation in the fracture group was 4 (4.4%) and was 0 (0%) in the control group; three (75%) of the affected dogs in the fracture group included cerclage as a component of their primary fracture stabilizations. Incidence of aggressive bony lesions in the fracture group compared to the control group was determined to be statistically significant (p = 0.0455), as was the incidence of cerclage among dogs affected by aggressive bony lesions compared to the rest of the fracture group (p = 0.0499). Development of aggressive bony lesions is an uncommon complication of fracture fixation. Additional research is needed to further identify and elucidate the long-term effects of metallic implants in dogs. PMID:28197406

  12. Long-term Formation of Aggressive Bony Lesions in Dogs with Mid-Diaphyseal Fractures Stabilized with Metallic Plates: Incidence in a Tertiary Referral Hospital Population.

    PubMed

    Gilley, Robert S; Hiebert, Elizabeth; Clapp, Kemba; Bartl-Wilson, Lara; Nappier, Michael; Werre, Stephen; Barnes, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of complications secondary to fracture stabilization, particularly osteolytic lesions and bony tumor formation, has long been difficult to evaluate. The objective of this study was to describe the long-term incidence of aggressive bony changes developing in dogs with long bone diaphyseal fractures stabilized by metallic bone plates compared to a breed-, sex-, and age-matched control group. The medical records of a tertiary referral center were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that matched each respective criterion. Signalment, history, cause of death (if applicable), and aggressive bony changes at previous fracture sites were recorded. Ninety dogs met the criteria for inclusion in the fracture group and were matched with appropriate control dogs. Four of the dogs in the fracture group developed aggressive bony changes at the site of previous fracture repairs most consistent with osseous neoplasia. One lesion was confirmed with cytology as neoplastic. The population of dogs was mixed with regard to breed and body weight, but all dogs with aggressive bony lesions were male. Incidence of aggressive bony lesion formation in the fracture group was 4 (4.4%) and was 0 (0%) in the control group; three (75%) of the affected dogs in the fracture group included cerclage as a component of their primary fracture stabilizations. Incidence of aggressive bony lesions in the fracture group compared to the control group was determined to be statistically significant (p = 0.0455), as was the incidence of cerclage among dogs affected by aggressive bony lesions compared to the rest of the fracture group (p = 0.0499). Development of aggressive bony lesions is an uncommon complication of fracture fixation. Additional research is needed to further identify and elucidate the long-term effects of metallic implants in dogs.

  13. Community composition and population genetics of insect pathogenic fungi in the genus Metarhizium from soils of a long-term agricultural research system.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Ryan M; Ugine, Todd A; Maul, Jude E; Cavigelli, Michel A; Rehner, Stephen A

    2015-08-01

    Fungi in the genus Metarhizium are insect pathogens able to function in other niches, including soil and plant rhizosphere habitats. In agroecosystems, cropping and tillage practices influence soil fungal communities with unknown effects on the distribution of Metarhizium, whose presence can reduce populations of crop pests. We report results from a selective media survey of Metarhizium in soils sampled from a long-term experimental farming project in the mid-Atlantic region. Field plots under soybean cultivation produced higher numbers of Metarhizium colony-forming units (cfu) than corn or alfalfa. Plots managed organically and via chisel-till harboured higher numbers of Metarhizium cfu than no-till plots. Sequence typing of Metarhizium isolates revealed four species, with M. robertsii and M. brunneum predominating. The M. brunneum population was essentially fixed for a single clone as determined by multilocus microsatellite genotyping. In contrast, M. robertsii was found to contain significant diversity, with the majority of isolates distributed between two principal clades. Evidence for recombination was observed only in the most abundant clade. These findings illuminate multiple levels of Metarhizium diversity that can be used to inform strategies by which soil Metarhizium populations may be manipulated to exert downward pressure on pest insects and promote plant health.

  14. Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability, New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus, and New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population.

    PubMed

    Yano, Yuichiro; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Kramer, Holly; Sato, Yuji; Konta, Tsuneo; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Narita, Ichiei; Kondo, Masahide; Kimura, Kenjiro; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2015-07-01

    Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SDSBP (per 5 mmHg), SDDBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variabilitySBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variabilityDBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SDBP and average real variabilityBP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up.

  15. Long-term depression and suicidal ideation outcomes subsequent to emancipation from foster care: pathways to psychiatric risk in the Métis population.

    PubMed

    Kaspar, Violet

    2014-02-28

    Major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal ideation (SI) associated with history of foster care placement (HxFCP), and mediating effects of psychosocial and socioeconomic factors through which placement may confer psychiatric risks in the years subsequent to emancipation were examined in a national sample of 7534 Métis. More than one third of emancipated respondents reported past year MDE, a prevalence rate nearly 50% higher than the rate of MDE among Métis respondents without a history of placement in foster care. The 25% lifetime prevalence rate of SI in the emancipated group was more than twice the rate observed in the non-fostered group. Direct effects of HxFCP on post placement MDE and SI were significant in multivariate logistic regression analyses, even when effects of childhood predispositional risk factors were controlled statistically. Emancipated individuals were unduly affected by psychosocial and socioeconomic disadvantages signifying pathways that linked foster care placement history and psychiatric status. Main mediators of the effects demonstrated using effect decomposition procedures were self-esteem, income, and community adversity. The findings warrant consideration of foster care history in clarifying the complex etiologies of suicidal ideation and major depressive episode in the Métis population and risk factors ensuing in the intervening years as integral to the process linking placement to long-term psychiatric outcomes.

  16. Long-term use of secondary prevention medications for heart failure in Western Australia: a protocol for a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Xiwen; Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Hung, Joseph; Briffa, Tom

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, debilitating and progressive disease associated with high morbidity and mortality. Evidence-based medications (EBMs) are the cornerstone of management of patients with HF. In Australia, these EBMs are subsidised by the Commonwealth Government under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Suboptimal dispensing and non-adherence to these EBMs have been observed in patients with HF. Our study will investigate trends in dispensing patterns, as well as adherence and persistence of EBMs for HF. We will also identify factors influencing these patterns and their impact on long-term clinical outcomes. Methods and analysis This whole population-based cohort study will use longitudinal data for people aged 65–84 years who were hospitalised for HF in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008. Linked state-wide and national data will provide patient-level information on medication dispensing, medical visits, hospitalisations and death. Drug dispensing trends will be described, drug adherence and persistence estimated and the association with all-cause/cardiovascular death and hospitalisations reported. Ethics and dissemination This project has received approvals from the Western Australian Department of Health Human Research Ethics Committee and the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee. Results will be published in relevant cardiology journals and presented at national and international conferences. PMID:27803111

  17. Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    PubMed Central

    Douple, Evan B.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M.; Preston, Dale L.; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E.

    2014-01-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200 000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  18. Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Douple, Evan B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M; Preston, Dale L; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E

    2011-03-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200,000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor-participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study.

  19. Long-Term Therapy With Wu-Ling-San, a Popular Antilithic Chinese Herbal Formula, Did Not Prevent Subsequent Stone Surgery: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, San-Yuan; Chen, Huey-Yi; Tsai, Kao-Sung; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Sung, Fung-Chang; Chen, Yung-Hsiang; Chen, Wen-Chi

    2016-01-01

    Traditional Chinese herbal medicine (CHM), which is widely used to treat pain and urolithiasis, is a promising therapy for urinary stone prevention. This study investigated the clinical efficacy of a popular CHM, Wu-Ling-San (WLS), in Taiwan for the prophylaxis of recurrent nephrolithiasis as assessed by surgical stone treatment via a nationwide population-based cohort study. The National Health Insurance Research Database, 2000-2010, which included one million patient records. All patients diagnosed with stone disease at the beginning of the study. The matched controls (4-fold the number of WLS patients) were stone patients who did not take WLS. Data analysis included the stone surgeries following the first treatment. We enrolled 11 900 patients with stone disease, and the incidence of stone patients in this database was 1.19%. The prevalence of comorbidities such as benign prostate hyperplasia, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, and urinary tract infection, but not hypertension, was significantly higher in WLS users. Several patients in both groups were prescribed potassium citrate. The stone treatment rate was significantly higher in WLS users (17.85%) than in the non-WLS users (14.47%). WLS users with an associated comorbidity had a higher treatment rate than the non-WLS users: 21.05% versus 16.70%, respectively. The surgery rate for upper urinary tract stones was higher in WLS users than in the non-WLS users (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.52; P < .05). The stone treatment rate (52.79%) was significantly higher in patients who used a very high amount of WLS (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.30-3.98). Stone patients using a high amount of WLS use had a high stone surgical rate. Long-term therapy with WLS did not have a preventive effect on stone surgical treatment. Long-term potassium citrate therapy as a preventive measure appeared to be underutilized in this study.

  20. Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

    PubMed Central

    Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in

  1. Long-term estradiol-17β administration reduces population of neurons in the sympathetic chain ganglia supplying the ovary in adult gilts.

    PubMed

    Koszykowska, Marlena; Całka, Jarosław; Gańko, Marta; Jana, Barbara

    2011-08-01

    the number of perikarya expressing ERs subtype α and β, and (7) decreased the total number of the intraganglionic nerve fibers containing DβH and/or NPY. These results show that long-term E(2) treatment of adult gilts down-regulates the population of both noradrenergic and ERs expressing the SChG ovary supplying neurons. Our findings suggest also that elevated E(2) levels that occur during pathological states may regulate gonadal function(s) by affecting ovary supplying neurons.

  2. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    PubMed Central

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  3. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

    PubMed

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-06-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  4. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

    PubMed Central

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  5. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics.

  6. The long-term spatial-temporal trends and burden of esophageal cancer in one high-risk area: A population-registered study in Feicheng, China

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiubin; Zhao, Deli; Liu, Yi; Liu, Yunxia; Yuan, Zhongshang; Wang, Jialin; Xue, Fuzhong

    2017-01-01

    Background Feicheng County is a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in Shandong province, China. It is important to determine the long-term spatio-temporal trends in epidemiological characteristics and the burden of esophageal cancer, especially since the implementation of the national esophageal cancer screening program for early detection and treatment in 2005. Methods The data collected in Feicheng County from 2001 to 2012 was extracted from the whole-population cancer registry system. The incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and changing trends in esophageal cancer according to age and sex were calculated and described. Results The incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Feicheng was consistently high, and increased significantly for male, but not for female from 2001 to 2012, according to the joinpoint regression analysis. The highest and lowest yearly crude incidence rates were 160.78 and 95.97 per 100000 for males, and 81.36 and 52.17 per 100000 for females. The highest and lowest crude yearly mortality rates were 122.26 and 94.40 per 100000 for males, and 60.75 and 49.35 per 100000for females. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was the main pathology type and the tumor location changed significantly from 2001 to 2012. Overall, the DALY remained roughly stable and was estimated as 11.50 for males and 4.90 for females per 1000 people. The burden was mainly caused by premature death. There is an obvious spatial pattern in the distribution of incidence density and burden. Conclusion Esophageal cancer remains a public health issue in Feicheng County with a high incidence, mortality and disease burden. The incidence and burden have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and further studies should be conducted to identify geographical risk factors for precise local prevention and control measures. PMID:28267769

  7. Can we use fixed ambient air monitors to estimate population long-term exposure to air pollutants? The case of spatial variability in the Genotox ER study.

    PubMed

    Nerriere, Eléna; Zmirou-Navier, Denis; Blanchard, Olivier; Momas, Isabelle; Ladner, Joël; Le Moullec, Yvon; Personnaz, Marie-Blanche; Lameloise, Philippe; Delmas, Véronique; Target, Alain; Desqueyroux, Hélène

    2005-01-01

    Associations between average total personal exposures to PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 and concomitant outdoor concentrations were assessed within the framework of the Genotox ER study. It was carried out in four French metropolitan areas (Grenoble, Paris, Rouen, and Strasbourg) with the participation, in each site, of 60-90 nonsmoking volunteers composed of two groups of equal size (adults and children) who carried the personal Harvard Chempass multipollutant sampler during 48 h along two different seasons ("hot" and "cold"). In each center, volunteers were selected so as to live (home and work/school) in three different urban sectors contrasted in terms of air pollution (one highly exposed to traffic emissions, one influenced by local industrial sources, and a background urban environment). In parallel to personal exposure measurements, a fixed ambient air monitoring station surveyed the same pollutants in each local sector. A linear regression model was accommodated where the dependent pollutant-specific variable was the difference, for each subject, between the average ambient air concentrations over 48 h and the personal exposure over the same period. The explanatory variables were the metropolitan areas, the three urban sectors, season, and age group. While average exposures to particles were underestimated by outdoor monitors, in almost all cities, seasons, and age groups, differences were lower for NO2 and, in general, in the other direction. Relationships between average total personal exposures and ambient air levels varied across metropolitan areas and local urban sectors. These results suggest that using ambient air concentrations to assess average exposure of populations, in epidemiological studies of long-term effects or in a risk assessment setting, calls for some caution. Comparison of personal exposures to PM or NO2 with ambient air levels is inherently disturbed by indoor sources and activities patterns. Discrepancies between measurement devices and local

  8. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  9. Risk of Dementia in Patients with Insomnia and Long-term Use of Hypnotics: A Population-based Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Wei-Zen; Oyang, Yen-Jen; Fuh, Jong-Ling

    2012-01-01

    Background Hypnotics have been reported to be associated with dementia. However, the relationship between insomnia, hypnotics and dementia is still controversial. We sought to examine the risk of dementia in patients with long-term insomnia and the contribution of hypnotics. Methods Data was collected from Taiwan’s Longitudinal Health Insurance Database. The study cohort comprised all patients aged 50 years or older with a first diagnosis of insomnia from 2002 to 2007. The comparison cohort consisted of randomly selected patients matched by age and gender. Each patient was individually tracked for 3 years from their insomnia index date to identify whether the patient had a first diagnosis of dementia. Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results We identified 5693 subjects with long-term insomnia and 28,465 individuals without. After adjusting for hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, and stroke, those with long-term insomnia had significantly higher risks of dementia (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.92–2.85). Patients with long-term insomnia and aged 50 to 65 years had a higher increased risk of dementia (HR, 5.22; 95% CI, 2.62–10.41) than those older than 65 years (HR, 2.33; 95% CI, 1.90–2.88). The use of hypnotics with a longer half-life and at a higher prescribed dose predicted a greater increased risk of dementia. Conclusions Patients with long-term use of hypnotics have more than a 2-fold increased risk of dementia, especially those aged 50 to 65 years. In addition, the dosage and half-lives of the hypnotics used should be considered, because greater exposure to these medications leads to a higher risk of developing dementia. PMID:23145088

  10. Anemia on Admission Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Hip Fracture Population: A Prospective Study With 2-Year Follow-Up.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Licheng; Yin, Pengbin; Lv, Houchen; Long, Anhua; Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Lihai; Tang, Peifu

    2016-02-01

    Anemia is a disputable factor for long-term mortality in hip fracture population in previous studies. Previous studies indicated that the level of hemoglobin (Hb) might fluctuate due to various factors, such as comorbidities and in-hospital interventions, and the changing level of Hb, may lead to discordance diagnosis of anemia and thus to the conflicting conclusions on prognostic value of anemia. So in this study, we aim to compare factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia at different time-points, admission, postoperation, and discharge, and to determine which the time point is most suitable for mortality prediction.This prospective cohort study included 1330 hip fracture patients from 1 January 2000 to 18 November 2012. Hb levels at 3 different time points, such as admission, postoperation, and discharge, were collected and used to stratify the cohort into anemia and nonanemia groups. Candidate factors including commodities, perioperative factors, blood transfusion, and other in-hospital interventions were collected before discharge. Logistic regression analyses were performed to detect risk factors for anemia for the 3 time points separately. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between anemia and 2-year mortality.Factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia were different for the 3 time points. Age, female sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA), and intertrochanteric fracture were associated with admission anemia, while surgical procedure, surgical duration, blood transfusion, blood loss during the operation, and drainage volume were major risk factors for postoperation anemia. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis suggested that the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in the anemia group on admission (1.680, 95%CI: 1.201-2.350, P < 0.01), but not postoperation or on discharge, after adjustment for confounding factors.Our study showed that risk factors for anemia varied at

  11. Long-term mortality in mothers with perinatal losses and risk modification by surviving children and attained education: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Halland, Frode; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; DeRoo, Lisa A; Klungsøyr, Kari; Wilcox, Allen J; Skjærven, Rolv

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the association between perinatal losses and mother's long-term mortality and modification by surviving children and attained education. Design A population-based cohort study. Setting Norwegian national registries. Participants We followed 652 320 mothers with a first delivery from 1967 and completed reproduction before 2003, until 2010 or death. We excluded mothers with plural pregnancies, without information on education (0.3%) and women born outside Norway. Main outcome measures Main outcome measures were age-specific (40–69 years) cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. We calculated mortality in mothers with perinatal losses, compared with mothers without, and in mothers with one loss by number of surviving children in strata of mothers’ attained education (<11 years (low), ≥11 years (high)). Results Mothers with perinatal losses had increased crude mortality compared with mothers without; total: HR 1.3 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.4), cardiovascular: HR 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1), non-cardiovascular: HR 1.3 (1.2 to 1.4). Childless mothers with one perinatal loss had increased mortality compared with mothers with one child and no loss; cardiovascular: low education HR 2.7 (1.7 to 4.3), high education HR 0.91 (0.13 to 6.5); non-cardiovascular: low education HR 1.6 (1.3 to 2.2), high education HR 1.8 (1.1 to 2.9). Mothers with one perinatal loss, surviving children and high education had no increased mortality, whereas corresponding mothers with low education had increased mortality; cardiovascular: two surviving children HR 1.7 (1.2 to 2.4), three or more surviving children HR 1.6 (1.1 to 2.4); non-cardiovascular: one surviving child HR 1.2 (1.0 to 1.5), two surviving children HR 1.2 (1.1 to 1.4). Conclusions Irrespective of education, we find excess mortality in childless mothers with a perinatal loss. Increased mortality in mothers with one perinatal loss and surviving children was limited to mothers with low education. PMID:27884847

  12. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

    PubMed Central

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-01-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office. PMID:22879704

  13. Long-term contraceptives.

    PubMed

    Brown, Audrey

    2010-10-01

    To avoid unintended pregnancy, women in the UK need to consistently use reliable contraception for over 30 years. The long-acting reversible contraceptive methods compromise the progestogen-only implant, the progestogen-only injectable contraceptive, the copper-bearing intra-uterine device and the levonorgestrel-releasing intra-uterine system. These methods of contraception are highly reliable in pregnancy prevention, and are amongst the medically safest methods for users. Despite this, these long-acting methods are used by less than 10% of the UK population. National guidance has advised that increasing uptake of these long-acting methods will reduce the unplanned pregnancy rate. In addition, these methods are more cost effective than the oral contraceptive even at 1 year of use. Obstetricians and gynaecologists frequently come into contact with women requiring contraceptive advice, and should have a sound knowledge of the long-acting methods.

  14. Long-term environmental stewardship.

    SciTech Connect

    Nagy, Michael David

    2010-08-01

    The purpose of this Supplemental Information Source Document is to effectively describe Long-Term Environmental Stewardship (LTES) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). More specifically, this document describes the LTES and Long-Term Stewardship (LTS) Programs, distinguishes between the LTES and LTS Programs, and summarizes the current status of the Environmental Restoration (ER) Project.

  15. Presynaptic long-term plasticity

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ying; Calakos, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    Long-term synaptic plasticity is a major cellular substrate for learning, memory, and behavioral adaptation. Although early examples of long-term synaptic plasticity described a mechanism by which postsynaptic signal transduction was potentiated, it is now apparent that there is a vast array of mechanisms for long-term synaptic plasticity that involve modifications to either or both the presynaptic terminal and postsynaptic site. In this article, we discuss current and evolving approaches to identify presynaptic mechanisms as well as discuss their limitations. We next provide examples of the diverse circuits in which presynaptic forms of long-term synaptic plasticity have been described and discuss the potential contribution this form of plasticity might add to circuit function. Finally, we examine the present evidence for the molecular pathways and cellular events underlying presynaptic long-term synaptic plasticity. PMID:24146648

  16. Population viability analysis of plant and animal populations with stochastic integral projection models.

    PubMed

    Jaffré, Malo; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2016-12-01

    Integral projection models (IPM) make it possible to study populations structured by continuous traits. Recently, Vindenes et al. (Ecology 92:1146-1156, 2011) proposed an extended IPM to analyse the dynamics of small populations in stochastic environments, but this model has not yet been used to conduct population viability analyses. Here, we used the extended IPM to analyse the stochastic dynamics of IPM of small size-structured populations in one plant and one animal species (evening primrose and common lizard) including demographic stochasticity in both cases and environmental stochasticity in the lizard model. We also tested the accuracy of a diffusion approximation of the IPM for the two empirical systems. In both species, the elasticity for λ was higher with respect to parameters linked to body growth and size-dependent reproduction rather than survival. An analytical approach made it possible to quantify demographic and environmental variance to calculate the average stochastic growth rate. Demographic variance was further decomposed to gain insights into the most important size classes and demographic components. A diffusion approximation provided a remarkable fit to the stochastic dynamics and cumulative extinction risk, except for very small populations where stochastic growth rate was biased upward or downward depending on the model. These results confirm that the extended IPM provides a powerful tool to assess the conservation status and compare the stochastic demography of size-structured species, but should be complemented with individual based models to obtain unbiased estimates for very small populations of conservation concern.

  17. Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

    SciTech Connect

    Menz, William J.; Akroyd, Jethro; Kraft, Markus

    2014-01-01

    This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time.

  18. Long-Term Stability of Social Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hyyppa, Markku T.; Maki, Juhani; Alanen, Erkki; Impivaara, Olli; Aromaa, Arpo

    2008-01-01

    The long-term stability of social participation was investigated in a representative urban population of 415 men and 579 women who had taken part in the nationwide Mini-Finland Health Survey in the years 1978-1980 and were re-examined 20 years later. Stability was assessed by means of the following tracking coefficients: kappa, proportion of…

  19. Long term complications of diabetes

    MedlinePlus

    ... medlineplus.gov/ency/patientinstructions/000327.htm Long-term complications of diabetes To use the sharing features on this page, ... other tests. All these may help you keep complications of diabetes away. You will need to check your blood ...

  20. Long-term outcomes after severe shock.

    PubMed

    Pratt, Cristina M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Kuttler, Kathryn G; Lanspa, Michael J; Wilson, Emily L; Hopkins, Ramona O; Brown, Samuel M

    2015-02-01

    Severe shock is a life-threatening condition with very high short-term mortality. Whether the long-term outcomes among survivors of severe shock are similar to long-term outcomes of other critical illness survivors is unknown. We therefore sought to assess long-term survival and functional outcomes among 90-day survivors of severe shock and determine whether clinical predictors were associated with outcomes. Seventy-six patients who were alive 90 days after severe shock (received ≥1 μg/kg per minute of norepinephrine equivalent) were eligible for the study. We measured 3-year survival and long-term functional outcomes using the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey, the EuroQOL 5-D-3L, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, the Impact of Event Scale-Revised, and an employment instrument. We also assessed the relationship between in-hospital predictors and long-term outcomes. The mean long-term survival was 5.1 years; 82% (62 of 76) of patients survived, of whom 49 were eligible for follow-up. Patients who died were older than patients who survived. Thirty-six patients completed a telephone interview a mean of 5 years after hospital admission. The patients' Physical Functioning scores were below U.S. population norms (P < 0.001), whereas mental health scores were similar to population norms. Nineteen percent of the patients had symptoms of depression, 39% had symptoms of anxiety, and 8% had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. Thirty-six percent were disabled, and 17% were working full-time. Early survivors of severe shock had a high 3-year survival rate. Patients' long-term physical and psychological outcomes were similar to those reported for cohorts of less severely ill intensive care unit survivors. Anxiety and depression were relatively common, but only a few patients had symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder. This study supports the observation that acute illness severity does not determine long-term outcomes. Even extremely

  1. Herbivore population regulation and resource heterogeneity in a stochastic environment.

    PubMed

    Hempson, G P; Illius, A W; Hendricks, H H; Bond, W J; Vetter, S

    2015-08-01

    Large-mammal herbivore populations are subject to the interaction of internal density-dependent processes and external environmental stochasticity. We disentangle these processes by linking consumer population dynamics, in a highly stochastic environment, to the availability of their key forage resource via effects on body condition and subsequent fecundity and mortality rates. Body condition and demographic rate data were obtained by monitoring 500 tagged female goats in the Richtersveld National Park, South Africa, over a three-year period. Identifying the key resource and pathway to density dependence for a population allows environmental stochasticity to be partitioned into that which has strong feedbacks to population stability, and that which does not. Our data reveal a density- dependent seasonal decline in goat body condition in response to concomitant density-dependent depletion of the dry-season forage resource. The loss in body condition reduced density-dependent pregnancy rates, litter sizes, and pre-weaning survival. Survival was lowest following the most severe dry season and for juveniles. Adult survival in the late-dry season depended on body condition in the mid-dry season. Population growth was determined by the length of the dry season and the population size in the previous year. The RNP goat population is thereby dynamically coupled primarily to its dry-season forage resource. Extreme environmental variability thus does not decouple consumer resource dynamics, in contrast to the views of nonequilibrium protagonists.

  2. A core stochastic population projection model for Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runge, Michael C.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.

    2007-01-01

    probability of extinction is low, the model predicts that current and emerging threats are likely to result in a long-term decline in the statewide population and a change in the regional distribution of manatees. Analyses of sensitivity and variance contribution highlight the importance of reducing uncertainty in some life-history parameters, particularly adult survival, temporal variance of adult survival, and long-term warm-water capacity. This core biological model is expected to evolve over time, as better information becomes available about manatees and their habitat, and as new assessment needs arise. We anticipate that this core model will be customized for other state and federal assessments in the near future.

  3. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  4. Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth.

    PubMed

    Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

    2015-06-01

    The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

  5. Workshop on long-term contraceptives.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    The National Population Council Secretariat (NPCS) of Ghana held a three-day workshop on long-term contraceptives in 1996 in collaboration with the Ministry of Health, the Association of Voluntary Surgical Contraception, and the Johns Hopkins Population Communication Services. The session was funded by USAID. The executive director of NPCS, Dr. Richard Turkson, said that the slow rate of contraceptive acceptance was an obstacle to population control despite political concern that rapid population growth exerted an adverse impact on the economy. Only 10% of married women were using long-term or permanent methods of contraception. The hope was voiced that the participants would devise practical and cost-effective education, information, and communication (IEC) strategies to boost the demand for long-term contraceptive methods among sexually active people in Ghana. It was essential that these strategies and activities were based on a realist assessment of the demographic and social situation of the country. The examination of case studies in cultures similar to Ghana would also offer valuable lessons. The factors that hinder the acceptance of long-term methods include misconceptions, myths, and false rumors rooted in a general lack of knowledge among the people. Participants were urged to come up with strategies to counter these problems, and service providers were encouraged to improve their knowledge about contraceptive methods and counseling skills. Male involvement in contraception was also advocated. Statistics show that most Ghanians practicing contraception were using short-term methods such as foaming tablets, pills, and condoms. However, it is necessary to shift to long-term methods such as injectables, implants, and sterilization in order to achieve significant reductions in fertility.

  6. Deterministic versus stochastic aspects of superexponential population growth models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grosjean, Nicolas; Huillet, Thierry

    2016-08-01

    Deterministic population growth models with power-law rates can exhibit a large variety of growth behaviors, ranging from algebraic, exponential to hyperexponential (finite time explosion). In this setup, selfsimilarity considerations play a key role, together with two time substitutions. Two stochastic versions of such models are investigated, showing a much richer variety of behaviors. One is the Lamperti construction of selfsimilar positive stochastic processes based on the exponentiation of spectrally positive processes, followed by an appropriate time change. The other one is based on stable continuous-state branching processes, given by another Lamperti time substitution applied to stable spectrally positive processes.

  7. Stochastic predation events and population persistence in bighorn sheep

    PubMed Central

    Festa-Bianchet, Marco; Coulson, Tim; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hogg, John T; Pelletier, Fanie

    2006-01-01

    Many studies have reported temporal changes in the relative importance of density-dependence and environmental stochasticity in affecting population growth rates, but they typically assume that the predominant factor limiting growth remains constant over long periods of time. Stochastic switches in limiting factors that persist for multiple time-steps have received little attention, but most wild populations may periodically experience such switches. Here, we consider the dynamics of three populations of individually marked bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) monitored for 24–28 years. Each population experienced one or two distinct cougar (Puma concolor) predation events leading to population declines. The onset and duration of predation events were stochastic and consistent with predation by specialist individuals. A realistic Markov chain model confirms that predation by specialist cougars can cause extinction of isolated populations. We suggest that such processes may be common. In such cases, predator–prey equilibria may only occur at large geographical and temporal scales, and are unlikely with increasing habitat fragmentation. PMID:16777749

  8. An examination of population exposure to traffic related air pollution: Comparing spatially and temporally resolved estimates against long-term average exposures at the home location.

    PubMed

    Shekarrizfard, Maryam; Faghih-Imani, Ahmadreza; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

    2016-05-01

    Air pollution in metropolitan areas is mainly caused by traffic emissions. This study presents the development of a model chain consisting of a transportation model, an emissions model, and atmospheric dispersion model, applied to dynamically evaluate individuals' exposure to air pollution by intersecting daily trajectories of individuals and hourly spatial variations of air pollution across the study domain. This dynamic approach is implemented in Montreal, Canada to highlight the advantages of the method for exposure analysis. The results for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a marker of traffic related air pollution, reveal significant differences when relying on spatially and temporally resolved concentrations combined with individuals' daily trajectories compared to a long-term average NO2 concentration at the home location. We observe that NO2 exposures based on trips and activity locations visited throughout the day were often more elevated than daily NO2 concentrations at the home location. The percentage of all individuals with a lower 24-hour daily average at home compared to their 24-hour mobility exposure is 89.6%, of which 31% of individuals increase their exposure by more than 10% by leaving the home. On average, individuals increased their exposure by 23-44% while commuting and conducting activities out of home (compared to the daily concentration at home), regardless of air quality at their home location. We conclude that our proposed dynamic modelling approach significantly improves the results of traditional methods that rely on a long-term average concentration at the home location and we shed light on the importance of using individual daily trajectories to understand exposure.

  9. Biomonitoring short- and long-term exposure to the herbicide terbuthylazine in agriculture workers and in the general population using urine and hair specimens.

    PubMed

    Mercadante, Rosa; Polledri, Elisa; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Fustinoni, Silvia

    2013-10-01

    The aim of this work was to evaluate short-term and long-term exposure to terbuthylazine (TBA) in agriculture workers (AW), rural residents (RR), and urban residents (UR) using urine and hair specimens. Twelve AW, 13 RR, and 17 UR were included in the study. Urine spot samples were collected with two different protocols. AW urine samples were collected before the application season (February, U0), at bedtime on the day of TBA application (March-May, U1), and prior to the next shift on the day after TBA application (U2). RR and UR urine samples were collected on any day during the application season (Ue). Hair samples were collected for all subjects before the application season (February, H0) and at the end of the season (June, H1). TBA and its metabolite desethylterbuthylazine (DET) were measured by liquid chromatography coupled with triple quadrupole mass spectrometry detection. DET was exclusively found in urine, while TBA was mostly found in the hair. In the AW, the urinary levels of DET were not detected in the U0 samples, and they increased to median levels of 1.81 and 2.94μg/L in the U1 and U2 samples, respectively (p<0.001). In the RR and UR, DET was not detected in the Ue samples. In the UR, TBA was not detected in the H0 samples, and the median levels of TBA were 0.01ng/mg hair in both the AW and RR. In the H1 samples, the median TBA levels were not detected, 0.01, and 0.08ng/mg hair in the UR, RR, and AW, respectively (p<0.001). Urinary DET and hair TBA are promising candidates for biomonitoring short- and long-term exposure to TBA. The use of this herbicide in agriculture leads to exposure in rural residents.

  10. Dynamics of stochastic SEIS epidemic model with varying population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jiamin; Wei, Fengying

    2016-12-01

    We introduce the stochasticity into a deterministic model which has state variables susceptible-exposed-infected with varying population size in this paper. The infected individuals could return into susceptible compartment after recovering. We show that the stochastic model possesses a unique global solution under building up a suitable Lyapunov function and using generalized Itô's formula. The densities of the exposed and infected tend to extinction when some conditions are being valid. Moreover, the conditions of persistence to a global solution are derived when the parameters are subject to some simple criteria. The stochastic model admits a stationary distribution around the endemic equilibrium, which means that the disease will prevail. To check the validity of the main results, numerical simulations are demonstrated as end of this contribution.

  11. Modeling Bacterial Population Growth from Stochastic Single-Cell Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-01-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  12. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  13. Stochastic Hopf and torus bifurcations in population biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stollenwerk, Nico; Sommer, Pablo Fuentes; Mateus, Luis; Kooi, Bob; Aguiar, Maíra

    2016-06-01

    In population biological systems often bifurcation sequences via period doubling are observed, especially in simplest models of epidemiology like the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with seasonal forcing in the infection rate. But other routes to complex behaviour can as easily be found, for example in multi-strain models of SIR-type without forcing, here after a Hopf bifurcation a torus bifurcation leads into chaos. However, these models are already relatively high dimensional. One of the simplest models in population biology, now in ecology, is the Rosenzweig-MacArthur model, displaying a Hopf bifurcation and with forcing also a torus bifurcation leading to more complex behaviour subsequently. Here we investigate an only slightly extended version which again can be interpreted as a stochastic process of a population dynamical model. Such stochastic models give insight into what can be observed ultimately in empirical data of the systems under investigation.

  14. Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

    SciTech Connect

    Lumi, N.; Mankin, R.

    2014-11-12

    The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

  15. Long-term epidemiological studies of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: study populations, dosimetry and summary of health effects.

    PubMed

    Okubo, Toshiteru

    2012-10-01

    The Radiation Effects Research Foundation succeeded 28 years' worth of activities of the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission on long-term epidemiological studies in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It has three major cohorts of atomic bomb survivors, i.e. the Life Span Study (LSS) of 120,000 people, the In Utero Cohort of 3600 and the Second Generation Study (F(1)) of 77,000. The LSS and F(1) studies include a periodic health examination for each sub-cohort, i.e. the Adult Health Study and the F(1) Clinical Study, respectively. An extensive individual dose estimation was conducted and the system was published as the Dosimetry System established in 2002 (DS02). As results of these studies, increases of cancers in relation to dose were clearly shown. Increases of other mortality causes were also observed, including heart and respiratory diseases. There has been no evidence of genetic effects in the survivors' children, including cancer and other multi-factorial diseases. The increase in the expected mortality number in the next 10 y would allow the analyses of further details of the observed effects related to atomic bomb exposures.

  16. Effects of demographic stochasticity on population persistence in advective media.

    PubMed

    Kolpas, Allison; Nisbet, Roger M

    2010-07-01

    Many populations live and disperse in advective media. A fundamental question, known as the "drift paradox" in stream ecology, is how a closed population can survive when it is constantly being transported downstream by the flow. Recent population-level models have focused on the role of diffusive movement in balancing the effects of advection, predicting critical conditions for persistence. Here, we formulate an individual-based stochastic analog of the model described in (Lutscher et al., SIAM Rev. 47(4):749-772, 2005) to quantify the effects of demographic stochasticity on persistence. Population dynamics are modeled as a logistic growth process and dispersal as a position-jump process on a finite domain divided into patches. When there is no correlation in the interpatch movement of residents, stochasticity simply smooths the persistence-extinction boundary. However, when individuals disperse in "packets" from one patch to another and the flow field is memoryless on the timescale of packet transport, the probability of persistence is greatly enhanced. The latter transport mechanism may be characteristic of larval dispersal in the coastal ocean or wind-dispersed seed pods.

  17. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: a stochastic demographic analysis.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Christine M; Caswell, Hal; Runge, Michael C; Regehr, Eric V; Amstrup, Steve C; Stirling, Ian

    2010-10-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in lambda in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log lambdas, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log lambdas approximately - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population

  18. Climate change threatens polar bear populations: A stochastic demographic analysis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunter, C.M.; Caswell, H.; Runge, M.C.; Regehr, E.V.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Stirling, I.

    2010-01-01

    The polar bear (Ursus maritimus) depends on sea ice for feeding, breeding, and movement. Significant reductions in Arctic sea ice are forecast to continue because of climate warming. We evaluated the impacts of climate change on polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea by means of a demographic analysis, combining deterministic, stochastic, environment-dependent matrix population models with forecasts of future sea ice conditions from IPCC general circulation models (GCMs). The matrix population models classified individuals by age and breeding status; mothers and dependent cubs were treated as units. Parameter estimates were obtained from a capture-recapture study conducted from 2001 to 2006. Candidate statistical models allowed vital rates to vary with time and as functions of a sea ice covariate. Model averaging was used to produce the vital rate estimates, and a parametric bootstrap procedure was used to quantify model selection and parameter estimation uncertainty. Deterministic models projected population growth in years with more extensive ice coverage (2001-2003) and population decline in years with less ice coverage (2004-2005). LTRE (life table response experiment) analysis showed that the reduction in ?? in years with low sea ice was due primarily to reduced adult female survival, and secondarily to reduced breeding. A stochastic model with two environmental states, good and poor sea ice conditions, projected a declining stochastic growth rate, log ??s, as the frequency of poor ice years increased. The observed frequency of poor ice years since 1979 would imply log ??s ' - 0.01, which agrees with available (albeit crude) observations of population size. The stochastic model was linked to a set of 10 GCMs compiled by the IPCC; the models were chosen for their ability to reproduce historical observations of sea ice and were forced with "business as usual" (A1B) greenhouse gas emissions. The resulting stochastic population projections showed drastic

  19. Long-term parenteral nutrition

    PubMed Central

    Ladefoged, Karin; Jarnum, Stig

    1978-01-01

    Nineteen patients (11 women and eight men) aged 20-68 received long-term parenteral nutrition, mostly at home, for six to 63 months (mean 19 months). Indications for LTPN were extensive, active Crohn's disease in three patients, intestinocutaneous fistulas in three, and short-bowel syndrome in the remaining 13 patients. Subclavian or intra-atrial (Broviac) catheters were most commonly used, for which the average life was four and seven months respectively. Complications of long-term parenteral nutrition included pneumothorax in four out of 48 subclavian vein punctures. Catheter-induced thrombosis of central veins was shown by phlebography 17 times in nine patients, and eight episodes of total occlusion occurred. Two of these patients had pulmonary infarction. Nineteen episodes of catheter sepsis occurred in 11 patients, but only one was fatal. Complications related to intestinal disease included intra-abdominal abscesses and intestinal fistulas, and disturbances of liver function. Five patients died, though in only two was death related to long-term parenteral nutrition. One of these patients died from catheter sepsis, the other had subdural haematoma possibly caused by anticoagulant treatment. Eight of the 14 surviving patients still needed parenteral nutrition. All received a disability pension, but six had an acceptable quality of life with almost normal social activities. Despite problems such as difficulties in maintaining standardised infusion programmes, it was concluded that long-term parenteral nutrition at home is practicable and consistent with an acceptable quality of life. ImagesFIG 2 PMID:98199

  20. On stochastic Gilpin-Ayala population model with Markovian switching.

    PubMed

    Settati, Adel; Lahrouz, Aadil

    2015-04-01

    In this paper, we analyze a stochastic Gilpin-Ayala population model with Markovian switching and white noise. The Gilpin-Ayala parameter is also allowed to switch. We establish the global stability of the trivial equilibrium state of the model. Verifiable sufficient conditions which guarantee the extinction and persistence are provided. Furthermore, we show the existence of a stationary distribution. The analytical results are illustrated by computer simulations.

  1. Long-term Effects of Antihypertensive Drug Use and New-onset Osteoporotic Fracture in Elderly Patients: A Population-based Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Hung-Yi; Ma, Kai-Yan; Hsieh, Pei-Ling; Liou, Yi-Sheng; Jong, Gwo-Ping

    2016-01-01

    Background: Antihypertensive drugs have been linked to new-onset osteoporotic fracture (NOF), and different classes of antihypertensive drugs may alter the risk for the development of NOF; however, the classic effect of different antihypertensive drugs on the development of NOF in the elderly has not been well studied during long-term follow-up. Methods: In this study, we investigated the association between different classic antihypertensives and the development of NOF in the elderly. This was a longitudinal cohort study performed using data from claim forms submitted to the Taiwan Bureau of National Health Insurance in Central Taiwan, China including case patients with NOF aged 65–80 years from January 2002 to December 2012 and non-NOF controls. Prescriptions for antihypertensives before the index date were retrieved from a prescription database. We estimated the hazard ratios (HRs) of NOF associated with antihypertensive use. Non-NOF controls served as the reference group. Results: A total of 128 patients with NOF were identified from among 1144 patients with hypertension during the study period. The risk of NOF after adjusting age, sex, comorbidities, and concurrent medications was higher among the users of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors (HR, 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–2.66) than among nonusers. Patients who took calcium channel blockers (CCBs) (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.49–0.99) were at a lower risk of developing NOF than nonusers. Loop diuretics, thiazide diuretics, angiotensin receptor blocker, beta-blocker, and alpha-blocker were not associated with the risk of NOF. Conclusions: Elderly with hypertension who take CCBs are at a lower risk of NOF and that the use of ACE inhibitors was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing NOF during the 11-year follow-up. PMID:27958221

  2. Long-term data archiving

    SciTech Connect

    Moore, David Steven

    2009-01-01

    Long term data archiving has much value for chemists, not only to retain access to research and product development records, but also to enable new developments and new discoveries. There are some recent regulatory requirements (e.g., FDA 21 CFR Part 11), but good science and good business both benefit regardless. A particular example of the benefits of and need for long term data archiving is the management of data from spectroscopic laboratory instruments. The sheer amount of spectroscopic data is increasing at a scary rate, and the pressures to archive come from the expense to create the data (or recreate it if it is lost) as well as its high information content. The goal of long-term data archiving is to save and organize instrument data files as well as any needed meta data (such as sample ID, LIMS information, operator, date, time, instrument conditions, sample type, excitation details, environmental parameters, etc.). This editorial explores the issues involved in long-term data archiving using the example of Raman spectral databases. There are at present several such databases, including common data format libraries and proprietary libraries. However, such databases and libraries should ultimately satisfy stringent criteria for long term data archiving, including readability for long times into the future, robustness to changes in computer hardware and operating systems, and use of public domain data formats. The latter criterion implies the data format should be platform independent and the tools to create the data format should be easily and publicly obtainable or developable. Several examples of attempts at spectral libraries exist, such as the ASTM ANDI format, and the JCAMP-DX format. On the other hand, proprietary library spectra can be exchanged and manipulated using proprietary tools. As the above examples have deficiencies according to the three long term data archiving criteria, Extensible Markup Language (XML; a product of the World Wide Web

  3. Landscape resistnace to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects of human disturbance on a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Agricultural development over the past 60 years has resulted in considerable habitat fragmentation in the Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) region in sou...

  4. Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Krkošek, Martin; Hilborn, Ray; Peterman, Randall M.; Quinn, Thomas P.

    2011-01-01

    Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks. PMID:21147806

  5. Rare events in stochastic populations under bursty reproduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

    2016-11-01

    Recently, a first step was made by the authors towards a systematic investigation of the effect of reaction-step-size noise—uncertainty in the step size of the reaction—on the dynamics of stochastic populations. This was done by investigating the effect of bursty influx on the switching dynamics of stochastic populations. Here we extend this formalism to account for bursty reproduction processes, and improve the accuracy of the formalism to include subleading-order corrections. Bursty reproduction appears in various contexts, where notable examples include bursty viral production from infected cells, and reproduction of mammals involving varying number of offspring. The main question we quantitatively address is how bursty reproduction affects the overall fate of the population. We consider two complementary scenarios: population extinction and population survival; in the former a population gets extinct after maintaining a long-lived metastable state, whereas in the latter a population proliferates despite undergoing a deterministic drift towards extinction. In both models reproduction occurs in bursts, sampled from an arbitrary distribution. Using the WKB approach, we show in the extinction problem that bursty reproduction broadens the quasi-stationary distribution of population sizes in the metastable state, which results in a drastic reduction of the mean time to extinction compared to the non-bursty case. In the survival problem, it is shown that bursty reproduction drastically increases the survival probability of the population. Close to the bifurcation limit our analytical results simplify considerably and are shown to depend solely on the mean and variance of the burst-size distribution. Our formalism is demonstrated on several realistic distributions which all compare well with numerical Monte-Carlo simulations.

  6. Long-term trends in naturalized rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) populations in the upper Esopus Creek, Ulster County, New York, 2009–15

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    George, Scott D.; Baldigo, Barry P.

    2016-05-13

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Cornell Cooperative Extension of Ulster County, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, and the New York City Department of Environmental Protection, surveyed fish communities annually on the main stem and tributaries of the upper Esopus Creek, Ulster County, New York, from 2009 to 2015. This report summarizes the density, biomass, and size structure of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown trout (Salmo trutta) populations from the 2015 surveys along with data from the preceding 6 years. The mean density of rainbow trout populations in 2015 was 98 fish per 0.1 hectare, which was the highest value observed since 2010, and the mean biomass of rainbow trout populations in 2015 was 864 grams per 0.1 hectare, which was the highest value observed since 2012.

  7. Long-Term Health-Related Quality of Life in German Patients with Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis in Comparison to German General Population

    PubMed Central

    Barth, Swaantje; Haas, Johannes-Peter; Schlichtiger, Jenny; Molz, Johannes; Bisdorff, Betty; Michels, Hartmut; Hügle, Boris; Radon, Katja

    2016-01-01

    Objective Aims of the study were to investigate health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adult patients with former diagnosis of Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis (JIA), to compare their HRQOL with the general population and to identify factors related to a poor outcome. Methods In 2012, a cross-sectional survey was performed by mailing a questionnaire to a large cohort of former and current patients of the German Centre for Rheumatology in Children and Adolescents. Only adult patients (≥18 years) with a diagnosis compatible with JIA were included (n = 2592; response 66%). The questionnaire included information about HRQOL (EQ5D), disease-related questions and socio-demographics. Prevalence and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of problems with mobility, self-care, usual activities, pain and anxiety/depression were standardized to the German general population. Factors associated with low HRQOL in JIA patients were identified using logistic regression models. Results Sixty-two percent of the study population was female; age range was 18–73 years. In all dimensions, JIA patients reported statistically significantly more problems than the general population with largest differences in the pain dimension (JIA patients 56%; 95%CI 55–58%; general population 28%; 26–29%) and the anxiety/depression dimension (28%; 27–29% vs. 4%; 4–5%). Lower HRQOL in JIA patients was associated with female sex, older age, lower level of education, still being under rheumatic treatment and disability. Conclusions HRQOL in adult JIA patients is considerably lower than in the general population. As this cohort includes historic patients the new therapeutic schemes available today are expected to improve HRQOL in future. PMID:27115139

  8. Long-term stability of allozyme frequencies in a wood lemming, Myopus schisticolor, population with a biased sex ratio and density fluctuations.

    PubMed

    Vuorinen, J A; Eskelinen, O

    2005-04-01

    Wood lemming (Myopus schisticolor) populations are characterized by female biased sex ratios and cyclic variations in population size. Both of these characteristics are assumed to reduce genetic variation and thus affect the evolutionary adaptation of the species. We addressed these questions by studying the genetic structure of a wood lemming population from eastern Finland by isozyme markers during a 21-year period, which corresponds to 40-50 generations. Contingency tests showed that genotypic proportions conformed to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium in each of the four sampling years. Among the temporal replicates, allele frequencies differed most by 0.14 and were not significant. Genetic variation was also stable and fairly high with a mean observed heterozygosity of H = 0.057. Variability in the Heinavesi population was higher than previously reported in wood lemming. The difference was mainly caused by variation at a phosphoglucomutase locus that was monomorphic in earlier studies. Significant linkage disequilibrium was observed in three of the comparisons but the disequilibrium did not appear consistently in all years. This pattern was also evidenced by the variance components, which indicated that selection favoured for specific allele pairs only in few subsamples.

  9. Efficacy of a Tailored Tobacco Control Program on Long-Term Use in a Population of U.S. Military Troops

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klesges, Robert C.; DeBon, Margaret; Vander Weg, Mark W.; Haddock, C. Keith; Lando, Harry A.; Relyea, George E.; Peterson, Alan L.; Talcott, G. Wayne

    2006-01-01

    The authors evaluated the effect of a brief tailored smoking control intervention delivered during basic military training on tobacco use in a population of military personnel (N = 33,215). Participants were randomized to either a tobacco use intervention (smoking cessation, smokeless tobacco use cessation, or prevention depending on tobacco…

  10. Stochasticity and universal dynamics in communicating cellular populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noorbakhsh, Javad; Mehta, Pankaj; Allyson Sgro Collaboration; David Schwab Collaboration; Troy Mestler Collaboration; Thomas Gregor Collaboration

    2014-03-01

    A fundamental problem in biology is to understand how biochemical networks within individual cells coordinate and control population-level behaviors. Our knowledge of these biochemical networks is often incomplete, with little known about the underlying kinetic parameters. Here, we present a general modeling approach for overcoming these challenges based on universality. We apply our approach to study the emergence of collective oscillations of the signaling molecule cAMP in populations of the social amoebae Dictyostelium discoideum and show that a simple two-dimensional dynamical system can reproduce signaling dynamics of single cells and successfully predict novel population-level behaviors. We reduce all the important parameters of our model to only two and will study its behavior through a phase diagram. This phase diagram determines conditions under which cells are quiet or oscillating either coherently or incoherently. Furthermore it allows us to study the effect of different model components such as stochasticity, multicellularity and signal preprocessing. A central finding of our model is that Dictyostelium exploit stochasticity within biochemical networks to control population level behaviors.

  11. How domain growth is implemented determines the long-term behavior of a cell population through its effect on spatial correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, Robert J. H.; Baker, R. E.; Yates, C. A.

    2016-07-01

    Domain growth plays an important role in many biological systems, and so the inclusion of domain growth in models of these biological systems is important to understanding how these systems function. In this work we present methods to include the effects of domain growth on the evolution of spatial correlations in a continuum approximation of a lattice-based model of cell motility and proliferation. We show that, depending on the way in which domain growth is implemented, different steady-state densities are predicted for an agent population. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the way in which domain growth is implemented can result in the evolution of the agent density depending on the size of the domain. Continuum approximations that ignore spatial correlations cannot capture these behaviors, while those that account for spatial correlations do. These results will be of interest to researchers in developmental biology, as they suggest that the nature of domain growth can determine the characteristics of cell populations.

  12. Long-term monitoring of reef corals at the Flower Garden Banks (northwest Gulf of Mexico): Reef coral population changes and historical incorporation of barium in Montastrea annularis

    SciTech Connect

    Deslarzes, K.J.P.

    1992-01-01

    Reef coral populations were monitored from 1988 to 1991 at the Flower Garden Banks located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The status of reef coral populations, and natural or man-made factors potentially affecting their well-being were determined. Man-made chronic disturbances are degrading coral reef resources on a global scale. Yet, the Flower Garden coral reefs seem to have been sheltered from the effects of regional stresses generated by population growth and increased industrial activity. Since 1974, reef coral population levels have remained unchanged in the Montastrea-Diploria Zones at the Flower Garden Banks. Live coral cover ranges between 46 and 46.5%. Montastrea annularis and Diploria strigosa comprise 80% of the coral cover on either bank. The remainder of the cover is mostly shared by eight other taxa. Coral taxa appear to be more homogeneously distributed on the West Bank. The relatively greater number of Agaricia spp., Madracis decastis, and P. astreoides colonies on the East Bank may be the source of a decreased evenness. The health of reef corals was assessed using repetitive and non-repetitive photographic methods, and accretionary growth measurements of M. annularis. Reef corals have undergone small scale changes at the Flower Gardens probably reflecting natural disturbance, predation, disease, and inter-specific competition. White mat disease (ridge disease) is shown to generate more tissue loss than any of the three bleaching events that took place at the Flower Gardens (1989, 1990, and 1991). Advance to retreat linear ratios of encrusting growth revealed a net tissue gain on the East Bank and a net tissue loss on the West Bank. Growth rates of M. annularis were highly variable. The annual barium content from 1910 in 1989 in a M. annularis colony from the West Flower Garden did not reveal trends associated with the extensive oil and gas exploration in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

  13. Impact of External Beam Adjuvant Radiotherapy on Health-Related Quality of Life for Long-Term Survivors of Endometrial Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Lybeert, Marnix L.M.; Berg, Hetty A. van den; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.

    2007-09-01

    Purpose: To compare the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among 5-10-year survivors of Stage I-II endometrial (adeno-)carcinoma (EC) treated with surgery alone or surgery with external beam adjuvant radiotherapy (EBRT) and an age-matched norm population. Methods and Materials: A population-based, cross-sectional survey was conducted by the Eindhoven Cancer Registry. All patients were included who had been diagnosed with EC between 1994 and 1998 (n = 462). Information from the questionnaires returned was linked to data from the Eindhoven Cancer Registry on patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. Results: Responses were received from 75% of the patients. The analyses were restricted to women with Stage I-II disease at diagnosis, treated with either surgery alone or surgery with adjuvant EBRT, and without recurrent disease or new primary malignancies (n = 264). The patients who had received adjuvant EBRT (n = 80) had had a significantly higher tumor stage and grade at diagnosis (p < 0.0001) and a longer mean time since diagnosis (p = 0.04). Age, number of comorbid diseases, current marital status, nulliparity, education, and occupation were similar for both treatment groups. On multivariate analyses, adjuvant EBRT was independently and negatively associated with the vitality and physical and social well-being scale scores. The HRQOL scores of both treatment groups, however, were similar to those of an age-matched norm population. Conclusion: In general, the HRQOL of EC survivors is good. EC survivors treated with surgery alone had a better HRQOL than women treated with surgery and adjuvant EBRT, although for both groups, the HRQOL was in the range of the norm population.

  14. Modeling maintenance of long-term potentiation in clustered synapses: long-term memory without bistability.

    PubMed

    Smolen, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Memories are stored, at least partly, as patterns of strong synapses. Given molecular turnover, how can synapses maintain strong for the years that memories can persist? Some models postulate that biochemical bistability maintains strong synapses. However, bistability should give a bimodal distribution of synaptic strength or weight, whereas current data show unimodal distributions for weights and for a correlated variable, dendritic spine volume. Thus it is important for models to simulate both unimodal distributions and long-term memory persistence. Here a model is developed that connects ongoing, competing processes of synaptic growth and weakening to stochastic processes of receptor insertion and removal in dendritic spines. The model simulates long-term (>1 yr) persistence of groups of strong synapses. A unimodal weight distribution results. For stability of this distribution it proved essential to incorporate resource competition between synapses organized into small clusters. With competition, these clusters are stable for years. These simulations concur with recent data to support the "clustered plasticity hypothesis" which suggests clusters, rather than single synaptic contacts, may be a fundamental unit for storage of long-term memory. The model makes empirical predictions and may provide a framework to investigate mechanisms maintaining the balance between synaptic plasticity and stability of memory.

  15. Modeling Maintenance of Long-Term Potentiation in Clustered Synapses: Long-Term Memory without Bistability

    PubMed Central

    Smolen, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Memories are stored, at least partly, as patterns of strong synapses. Given molecular turnover, how can synapses maintain strong for the years that memories can persist? Some models postulate that biochemical bistability maintains strong synapses. However, bistability should give a bimodal distribution of synaptic strength or weight, whereas current data show unimodal distributions for weights and for a correlated variable, dendritic spine volume. Thus it is important for models to simulate both unimodal distributions and long-term memory persistence. Here a model is developed that connects ongoing, competing processes of synaptic growth and weakening to stochastic processes of receptor insertion and removal in dendritic spines. The model simulates long-term (>1 yr) persistence of groups of strong synapses. A unimodal weight distribution results. For stability of this distribution it proved essential to incorporate resource competition between synapses organized into small clusters. With competition, these clusters are stable for years. These simulations concur with recent data to support the “clustered plasticity hypothesis” which suggests clusters, rather than single synaptic contacts, may be a fundamental unit for storage of long-term memory. The model makes empirical predictions and may provide a framework to investigate mechanisms maintaining the balance between synaptic plasticity and stability of memory. PMID:25945261

  16. Volunteer Conservation Action Data Reveals Large-Scale and Long-Term Negative Population Trends of a Widespread Amphibian, the Common Toad (Bufo bufo)

    PubMed Central

    Petrovan, Silviu O.

    2016-01-01

    Rare and threatened species are the most frequent focus of conservation science and action. With the ongoing shift from single-species conservation towards the preservation of ecosystem services, there is a greater need to understand abundance trends of common species because declines in common species can disproportionately impact ecosystems function. We used volunteer-collected data in two European countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and Switzerland, since the 1970s to assess national and regional trends for one of Europe’s most abundant amphibian species, the common toad (Bufo bufo). Millions of toads were moved by volunteers across roads during this period in an effort to protect them from road traffic. For Switzerland, we additionally estimated trends for the common frog (Rana temporaria), a similarly widespread and common amphibian species. We used state-space models to account for variability in detection and effort and included only populations with at least 5 years of data; 153 populations for the UK and 141 for Switzerland. Common toads declined continuously in each decade in both countries since the 1980s. Given the declines, this common species almost qualifies for International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listing over this period despite volunteer conservation efforts. Reasons for the declines and wider impacts remain unknown. By contrast, common frog populations were stable or increasing in Switzerland, although there was evidence of declines after 2003. “Toads on Roads” schemes are vital citizen conservation action projects, and the data from such projects can be used for large scale trend estimations of widespread amphibians. We highlight the need for increased research into the status of common amphibian species in addition to conservation efforts focusing on rare and threatened species. PMID:27706154

  17. Volunteer Conservation Action Data Reveals Large-Scale and Long-Term Negative Population Trends of a Widespread Amphibian, the Common Toad (Bufo bufo).

    PubMed

    Petrovan, Silviu O; Schmidt, Benedikt R

    2016-01-01

    Rare and threatened species are the most frequent focus of conservation science and action. With the ongoing shift from single-species conservation towards the preservation of ecosystem services, there is a greater need to understand abundance trends of common species because declines in common species can disproportionately impact ecosystems function. We used volunteer-collected data in two European countries, the United Kingdom (UK) and Switzerland, since the 1970s to assess national and regional trends for one of Europe's most abundant amphibian species, the common toad (Bufo bufo). Millions of toads were moved by volunteers across roads during this period in an effort to protect them from road traffic. For Switzerland, we additionally estimated trends for the common frog (Rana temporaria), a similarly widespread and common amphibian species. We used state-space models to account for variability in detection and effort and included only populations with at least 5 years of data; 153 populations for the UK and 141 for Switzerland. Common toads declined continuously in each decade in both countries since the 1980s. Given the declines, this common species almost qualifies for International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red-listing over this period despite volunteer conservation efforts. Reasons for the declines and wider impacts remain unknown. By contrast, common frog populations were stable or increasing in Switzerland, although there was evidence of declines after 2003. "Toads on Roads" schemes are vital citizen conservation action projects, and the data from such projects can be used for large scale trend estimations of widespread amphibians. We highlight the need for increased research into the status of common amphibian species in addition to conservation efforts focusing on rare and threatened species.

  18. The Effects of Both Recent and Long-Term Selection and Genetic Drift Are Readily Evident in North American Barley Breeding Populations.

    PubMed

    Poets, Ana M; Mohammadi, Mohsen; Seth, Kiran; Wang, Hongyun; Kono, Thomas J Y; Fang, Zhou; Muehlbauer, Gary J; Smith, Kevin P; Morrell, Peter L

    2015-12-29

    Barley was introduced to North America ∼400 yr ago but adaptation to modern production environments is more recent. Comparisons of allele frequencies among growth habits and spike (inflorescence) types in North America indicate that significant genetic differentiation has accumulated in a relatively short evolutionary time span. Allele frequency differentiation is greatest among barley with two-row vs. six-row spikes, followed by spring vs. winter growth habit. Large changes in allele frequency among breeding programs suggest a major contribution of genetic drift and linked selection on genetic variation. Despite this, comparisons of 3613 modern North American cultivated barley breeding lines that differ for spike-type and growth habit permit the discovery of 142 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) outliers putatively linked to targets of selection. For example, SNPs within the Cbf4, Ppd-H1, and Vrn-H1 loci, which have previously been associated with agronomically adaptive phenotypes, are identified as outliers. Analysis of extended haplotype sharing identifies genomic regions shared within and among breeding populations, suggestive of a number of genomic regions subject to recent selection. Finally, we are able to identify recent bouts of gene flow between breeding populations that could point to the sharing of agronomically adaptive variation. These results are supported by pedigrees and breeders' understanding of germplasm sharing.

  19. Long-term course of opioid addiction.

    PubMed

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

  20. [Autoimmune processes after long-term low-level exposure to electromagnetic fields (the results of an experiment). Part 1. Mobile communications and changes in electromagnetic conditions for the population. Needs for additional substantiation of the existing hygienic standards].

    PubMed

    Grigor'ev, Iu G; Grigor'ev, O A; Ivanov, A A; Liaginskaia, A M; Merkulov, A V; Stepanov, V S; Shagina, N B

    2010-01-01

    Mobile communications provides a new source of electromagnetic exposure for almost the whole population of the Russian Federation. For the first time in the history of civilization the brain of mobile phone users was exposed to localized radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic fields (EMF). Population exposure from the base stations is also considered to be specific. However, existing standards for limiting the exposure do not account for this special EMF source and may not ensure the absence of health effects. There was a need for reliable information that would extend databases used for development of new standards. As recommended by the World Health Organization an additional experiment was performed under the supervision of foreign experts, which showed changes in autoimmune status in rats after long-term low-level RF EMF exposure with an incident power density of 500 microW/cm2.

  1. Long term cause specific mortality among 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer in Great Britain: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Winter, David L; Kelly, Julie; Jenkinson, Helen C; Skinner, Rod; Frobisher, Clare

    2016-01-01

    Objective To determine whether modern treatments for cancer are associated with a net increased or decreased risk of death from neoplastic and non-neoplastic causes among survivors of childhood cancer. Design Population based cohort study. Setting British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Participants Nationwide population based cohort of 34 489 five year survivors of childhood cancer with a diagnosis from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until 28 February 2014. Main outcome measures Cause specific standardised mortality ratios and absolute excess risks are reported. Multivariable Poisson regression models were utilised to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity or trend. Results Overall, 4475 deaths were observed, which was 9.1 (95% confidence interval 8.9 to 9.4) times that expected in the general population, corresponding to 64.2 (95% confidence interval 62.1 to 66.3) excess deaths per 10 000 person years. The number of excess deaths from all causes declined among those treated more recently; those treated during 1990-2006 experienced 30% of the excess number of deaths experienced by those treated before 1970. The corresponding percentages for the decline in excess deaths from recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes were 30% and 60%, respectively. Among survivors aged 50-59 years, 41% and 22% of excess deaths were attributable to subsequent primary neoplasms and circulatory conditions, respectively, whereas the corresponding percentages among those aged 60 years or more were 31% and 37%. Conclusions The net effects of changes in cancer treatments, and surveillance and management for late effects, over the period 1940 to 2006 was to reduce the excess number of deaths from both recurrence or progression and non-neoplastic causes among those treated more recently. Among survivors aged 60 years or more, the excess number of deaths from circulatory causes exceeds the excess number

  2. Towards a landscape scale management of pesticides: ERA using changes in modelled occupancy and abundance to assess long-term population impacts of pesticides.

    PubMed

    Topping, Chris J; Craig, Peter S; de Jong, Frank; Klein, Michael; Laskowski, Ryszard; Manachini, Barbara; Pieper, Silvia; Smith, Rob; Sousa, José Paulo; Streissl, Franz; Swarowsky, Klaus; Tiktak, Aaldrik; van der Linden, Ton

    2015-12-15

    Pesticides are regulated in Europe and this process includes an environmental risk assessment (ERA) for non-target arthropods (NTA). Traditionally a non-spatial or field trial assessment is used. In this study we exemplify the introduction of a spatial context to the ERA as well as suggest a way in which the results of complex models, necessary for proper inclusion of spatial aspects in the ERA, can be presented and evaluated easily using abundance and occupancy ratios (AOR). We used an agent-based simulation system and an existing model for a widespread carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros), to evaluate the impact of a fictitious highly-toxic pesticide on population density and the distribution of beetles in time and space. Landscape structure and field margin management were evaluated by comparing scenario-based ERAs for the beetle. Source-sink dynamics led to an off-crop impact even when no pesticide was present off-crop. In addition, the impacts increased with multi-year application of the pesticide whereas current ERA considers only maximally one year. These results further indicated a complex interaction between landscape structure and pesticide effect in time, both in-crop and off-crop, indicating the need for NTA ERA to be conducted at landscape- and multi-season temporal-scales. Use of AOR indices to compare ERA outputs facilitated easy comparison of scenarios, allowing simultaneous evaluation of impacts and planning of mitigation measures. The landscape and population ERA approach also demonstrates that there is a potential to change from regulation of a pesticide in isolation, towards the consideration of pesticide management at landscape scales and provision of biodiversity benefits via inclusion and testing of mitigation measures in authorisation procedures.

  3. Sea Star Wasting Disease in the Keystone Predator Pisaster ochraceus in Oregon: Insights into Differential Population Impacts, Recovery, Predation Rate, and Temperature Effects from Long-Term Research

    PubMed Central

    Menge, Bruce A.; Cerny-Chipman, Elizabeth B.; Johnson, Angela; Sullivan, Jenna; Gravem, Sarah; Chan, Francis

    2016-01-01

    Sea star wasting disease (SSWD) first appeared in Oregon in April 2014, and by June had spread to most of the coast. Although delayed compared to areas to the north and south, SSWD was initially most intense in north and central Oregon and spread southward. Up to 90% of individuals showed signs of disease from June-August 2014. In rocky intertidal habitats, populations of the dominant sea star Pisaster ochraceus were rapidly depleted, with magnitudes of decline in density among sites ranging from -2x to -9x (59 to 84%) and of biomass from -2.6x to -15.8x (60 to 90%) by September 2014. The frequency of symptomatic individuals declined over winter and persisted at a low rate through the spring and summer 2015 (~5–15%, at most sites) and into fall 2015. Disease expression included six symptoms: initially with twisting arms, then deflation and/or lesions, lost arms, losing grip on substrate, and final disintegration. SSWD was disproportionally higher in orange individuals, and higher in tidepools. Although historically P. ochraceus recruitment has been low, from fall 2014 to spring 2015 an unprecedented surge of sea star recruitment occurred at all sites, ranging from ~7x to 300x greater than in 2014. The loss of adult and juvenile individuals in 2014 led to a dramatic decline in predation rate on mussels compared to the previous two decades. A proximate cause of wasting was likely the “Sea Star associated Densovirus” (SSaDV), but the ultimate factors triggering the epidemic, if any, remain unclear. Although warm temperature has been proposed as a possible trigger, SSWD in Oregon populations increased with cool temperatures. Since P. ochraceus is a keystone predator that can strongly influence the biodiversity and community structure of the intertidal community, major community-level responses to the disease are expected. However, predicting the specific impacts and time course of change across west coast meta-communities is difficult, suggesting the need for

  4. Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

    2002-01-01

    Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

  5. Finance issue brief: long-term care insurance.

    PubMed

    Mintz, E

    1999-08-03

    States are turning their attention to long-term care insurance, spurred by a 1996 federal law and an increasingly urgent need for more options to finance the care of their rapidly growing elderly populations.

  6. Long term effects on the immune system following local radiation therapy for breast cancer. I. Cellular composition of the peripheral blood lymphocyte population

    SciTech Connect

    Rotstein, S.; Blomgren, H.; Petrini, B.; Wasserman, J.; Baral, E.

    1985-05-01

    Local radiation therapy for breast cancer depletes the blood of various subsets of lymphocytes. Previous studies showed that the recovery is still incomplete at 30 months. To further elucidate the recovery the authors examined blood lymphocyte counts of 138 disease-free women and various lymphocyte subsets in 102 of these patients. Total lymphocyte counts of the irradiated patients were still significantly reduced 10-11 years after treatment. This reduction was mainly attributable to a subnormal level of T-cells as determined by the monoclonal antibody Leu-1 and the ability to form rosettes with sheep erythrocytes, whereas the number of non-T cells, expressing C'3 receptors, did not differ significantly from the controls. Within the T-cell population a subset with helper/inducer phenotypes, detected by Leu-3a antibodies, was significantly reduced even 10-11 years after irradiation. The duration of the radiation induced reductions of different lymphocyte subsets may be related to the physiological turn-over of the cells or a changed distribution of cells in the body.

  7. Influence of long-term diesel fuel pollution on nitrite-oxidising activity and population size of nitrobacter spp in soil.

    PubMed

    Deni, Jamal; Penninckx, Michel J

    2004-01-01

    Previous investigations have shown that ammonia oxidation is not inhibited by diesel fuel in a soil with a long history of contamination contrary to a non-contaminated soil. As a consequence, ammonia oxidation does not constitute a Limited step in nitrification process (Appl. Environ. Microbiol. 65 (1999) 4008). Moreover, this type of soil also has had the opportunity to develop an abundant microbial population able to metabolise the diesel hydrocarbons. Whether the properties of soil with a long history of diesel fuel contamination may affect the activity of nitrite-oxidising bacteria was investigated. It was observed that re-exposure of soil to diesel fuel apparently stimulated the proliferation of nitrite-oxidising bacteria, as determined by most probable number (MPN) culture technique and MPN-polymerase chain reaction technique. The potential of nitrite-oxidising activity in soil treated with diesel fuel was about 4 times higher than in the control without addition. In the presence of diesel fuel and ammonium, the potential nitrite-oxidising activity was 40% higher than in presence of ammonium only. However, in the presence of hydrocarbon only, low proliferation of Nitrobacter was observed, probably because the heterotrophic bacteria were strongly limited by lack of nitrogen and did not produce sufficient organic metabolites that could be used by the Nitrobacter cells.

  8. Efficacy of a tailored tobacco control program on long-term use in a population of U.S. military troops.

    PubMed

    Klesges, Robert C; DeBon, Margaret; Vander Weg, Mark W; Haddock, C Keith; Lando, Harry A; Relyea, George E; Peterson, Alan L; Talcott, G Wayne

    2006-04-01

    The authors evaluated the effect of a brief tailored smoking control intervention delivered during basic military training on tobacco use in a population of military personnel (N = 33,215). Participants were randomized to either a tobacco use intervention (smoking cessation, smokeless tobacco use cessation, or prevention depending on tobacco use history) or a health education control condition. Results indicated that smokers who received intervention were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.04, 1.30) times (7-day point prevalence) and 1.23 (95% CI = 1.07, 1.41) times (continuous abstinence) more likely to be abstinent than controls from smoking cigarettes at the 1-year follow-up (p < .01); the cessation rate difference was 1.60% (31.09% vs. 29.49%) and 1.73% (15.47% vs. 13.74%) for point prevalence and continuous abstinence, respectively. Additionally, smokeless tobacco users were 1.33 (95% CI = 1.08, 1.63) times more likely than controls (p < .01) continuously abstinent at follow-up, an overall cessation rate difference of 5.44% (33.72% vs. 28.28%). The smoking prevention program had no impact on smoking initiation. These results suggest potential for large-scale tobacco control efforts.

  9. Dynamics of a stochastic tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Shi, Ningzhong; Hayat, Tasawar; Alsaedi, Ahmed

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we develop a mathematical model for a tuberculosis model with constant recruitment and varying total population size by incorporating stochastic perturbations. By constructing suitable stochastic Lyapunov functions, we establish sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution as well as extinction of the disease to the stochastic system.

  10. Impact of local surgical treatment on survival in young women with T1 breast cancer: long-term results of a population-based cohort.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Ye Won; Choi, Jung Eun; Park, Heung Kyu; Kim, Ku Sang; Lee, Jee Yeon; Suh, Young Jin

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of the type of local surgical treatment on survival in young women aged less than 40 years with T1 breast cancer. We analyzed data from 3,512 patients aged ≤40 years old who were diagnosed with T1 breast cancer from the Korean Breast Cancer Registry database between January 1988 and December 2006 and underwent either breast-conserving therapy (BCT) or mastectomy. The overall survival (OS) and breast-cancer-specific survival (BCSS) were compared between BCT and mastectomy. Of the 3,512 patients analyzed, 1,951 (55.6 %) underwent BCT, and 1,561 (44.4 %) underwent mastectomy. The median follow-up period was 111.0 (79.0-131.5) months. Overall, the 10-year OS rates for BCT and mastectomy were 95 and 92.1 %, respectively (p = 00004), and the 10-year BCSS rates for BCT and mastectomy patients were 96.9 and 94.9 %, respectively (p = 0.12). In node-negative patients, no significant difference was observed in either the OS (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.072; 95 % CI, 0.750-1.5332, p = 0.704) or BCSS (adjusted HR 0.988; 95 % CI, 0.620-1.574, p = 0.960) rate between the BCT and mastectomy groups. In node-positive patients, no significant difference was observed in the OS (adjusted HR 1.634; 95 % CI, 0.982-2.272, p = 0.59) and BCSS (adjusted HR 1.410; 95 % CI, 0.755-2.633, p = 0.281) rates between the BCT and mastectomy groups. In this large, population-based analysis of young women with T1 breast cancer, the OS and BCSS were not different between BCT and mastectomy.

  11. Clinicopathological characteristics and long-term prognosis of screening detected non-palpable breast cancer by ultrasound in hospital-based Chinese population (2001-2014)

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chang-Jun; You, Shan-Shan; Zhang, Jing; Xu, Qian-Qian; Cai, Feng; Shi, Jie; Zhou, Yi-Dong; Mao, Feng; Lin, Yan; Guan, Jing-Hong; Shen, Song-Jie; Liang, Zhi-Yong; Jiang, Yu-Xin; Sun, Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The mainstay modality of breast cancer screening in China is the hospital-based opportunistic screening among asymptomatic self-referred women. There is little data about the ultrasound (US) detected non-palpable breast cancer (NPBC) in Chinese population. Methods We analyzed 699 consecutive NPBC from 1.8-2.3 million asymptomatic women from 2001 to 2014, including 572 US-detected NPBC from 3,786 US-positive women and 127 mammography (MG) detected NPBC from 788 MG-positive women. The clinicopathological features, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between the US- and MG-detected NPBC. Prognostic factors of NPBC were identified. Results Compared to MG, US could detect more invasive NPBC (83.6% vs 54.3%, p<0.001), lymph node positive NPBC (19.1% vs 10.2%, p=0.018), lower grade (24.8% vs 16.5%, p<0.001), multifocal (19.2% vs 6.3%, p<0.001), PR positive (71.4% vs 66.9%, p=0.041), Her2 negative (74.3% vs 54.3%, p<0.001), Ki67 high (defined as >14%, 46.3% vs 37.0%, p=0.031) cancers and more NPBC who received chemotherapy (40.7% vs 21.3%, p<0.001). There was no significant difference in 10-year DFS and OS between US-detected vs MG-detected NPBC, DCIS and invasive NPBC. For all NPBC and the US-detected NPBC, the common DFS-predictors included pT, pN, p53 and bilateral cancers. Conclusion US could detect more invasive, node-positive, multifocal NPBC in hospital-based asymptomatic Chinese female, who could achieve comparable 10-year DFS and OS as MG-detected NPBC. US would not delay early detection of NPBC with improved cost-effectiveness, thus could serve as the feasible initial imaging modality in hospital-based opportunistic screening among Chinese women. PMID:27689334

  12. A perspective on long-term care for the elderly

    PubMed Central

    Scanlon, William J.

    1988-01-01

    Long-term care represents a significant burden to the approximately 7 million elderly in need, their families, and the Medicaid program. Concerns exist about access, quality, cost, and the distribution of the burden of care. In this article each area is discussed, highlighting the principal issues, identifying the unique aspects that pertain to long-term care, and exploring the implications for research and policy development. Future trends, especially the growth of the elderly population, are expected to affect significantly the provision of long-term care. The considerable uncertainty about how these trends may impact on long-term care is described, and the critical role social choice will play in shaping the future long-term care system is emphasized. PMID:10312975

  13. A stochastic population model of mid-continental mallards

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Koford, Rolf R.; Sauer, J.R.; Johnson, D.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Samuel, M.D.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

    1992-01-01

    We developed a simulation model that integrates infonnation on factors affecting the population dynamics of mallards in the mid-continental region of the United States. In the model we vary age, body mass, and reproductive and molt status of simulated females. Females use several types of nesting and foraging habitat in 15 geographic areas. Deterministic and stochastic events cause mortality or attribute changes on a daily basis, depending on current attributes, habitat, area, calendar date, wetland conditions, temperature, and various mortality agents. Because the model encompasses the entire year, it can be used to examine cross-seasonal effects. A simulated increase in nest success from 0.14 to 0.17 changed the annual rate of population growth from -6% to -1 %. A simulated 75% reduction in lead poisoning changed the rate from -6% to -3%.

  14. Long term survival with stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) versus thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection in elderly people: national population based study with propensity matched comparative analysis

    PubMed Central

    Paul, Subroto; Lee, Paul C; Mao, Jialin; Isaacs, Abby J

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To compare cancer specific survival after thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) for tumors ≤2 cm in size and thoracoscopic resection (sublobar resection or lobectomy) and SABR for tumors ≤5 cm in size. Design National population based retrospective cohort study with propensity matched comparative analysis. Setting Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry linked with Medicare database in the United States. Participants Patients aged ≥66 with lung cancer undergoing SABR or thoracoscopic lobectomy or sublobar resection from 1 Oct 2007 to 31 June 2012 and followed up to 31 December 2013. Main outcome measures Cancer specific survival after SABR or thoracoscopic surgery for lung cancer. Results 690 (275 (39.9%) SABR and 415 (60.1%) thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection) and 2967 (714 (24.1%) SABR and 2253 (75.9%) thoracoscopic resection) patients were included in primary and secondary analyses. The average age of the entire cohort was 76. Follow-up of the entire cohort ranged from 0 to 6.25 years, with an average of three years. In the primary analysis of patients with tumors sized ≤2 cm, 37 (13.5%) undergoing SABR and 44 (10.6%) undergoing thoracoscopic sublobar resection died from lung cancer, respectively. The cancer specific survival diverged after one year, but in the matched analysis (201 matched patients in each group) there was no significant difference between the groups (SABR v sublobar lung resection mortality: hazard ratio 1.32, 95% confidence interval 0.77 to 2.26; P=0.32). Estimated cancer specific survival at three years after SABR and thoracoscopic sublobar lung resection was 82.6% and 86.4%, respectively. The secondary analysis (643 matched patients in each group) showed that thoracoscopic resection was associated with improved cancer specific survival over SABR in patients with tumors sized ≤5 cm (SABR v resection mortality: hazard ratio 2.10, 1.52 to 2.89; P<0

  15. Long-Term Care Policy: Singapore's Experience.

    PubMed

    Chin, Chee Wei Winston; Phua, Kai-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Singapore, like many developed countries, is facing the challenge of a rapidly aging population and the increasing need to provide long-term care (LTC) services for elderly in the community. The Singapore government's philosophy on care for the elderly is that the family should be the first line of support, and it has relied on voluntary welfare organizations (VWOs) or charities for the bulk of LTC service provision. For LTC financing, it has emphasized the principles of co-payment and targeting of state support to the low-income population through means-tested government subsidies. It has also instituted ElderShield, a national severe disability insurance scheme. This paper discusses some of the challenges facing LTC policy in Singapore, particularly the presence of perverse financial incentives for hospitalization, the pitfalls of over-reliance on VWOs, and the challenges facing informal family caregivers. It discusses the role of private LTC insurance in LTC financing, bearing in mind demand- and supply-side failures that have plagued the private LTC insurance market. It suggests the need for more standardized needs assessment and portable LTC benefits, with reference to the Japanese Long-Term Care Insurance program, and also discusses the need to provide more support to informal family caregivers.

  16. [The reconstruction of radiation dose and risk assessment for population living near the Eniseĭ River from the long-term period of exploitation of the Krasnoyarsk mining and chemical enterprise (1975-2000)].

    PubMed

    Kryshev, A I; Sazykina, T G

    2009-01-01

    Radiation doses and risks for population living near the Yenisei River have been reconstructed for the long-term period of radioactive discharges from Krasnoyarsk NCC to the river (1975-2000). The analysis of multiple pathways show that the consumption of local fish was the major contributor to the radiation dose to population living near the Yenisei River (more than 90%). 32P was the most important contributor among the discharged radionuclides at the distances 0-100 km downstream the Krasnoyarsk NCC. The maximum annual dose to critical group of population at the nearest area of the Krasnoyarsk NCC was estimated to be 0.95 mSv/year (in 1977), at the same time in settlement located 800 km downstream the discharge source it was 0.2 mSv/year. Since 1993, the doses to population do not exceed 0.02 mSv/year even for nearest area the Krasnoyarsk NCC (0-100 km downstream the discharge source).

  17. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations

    SciTech Connect

    Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2011-08-10

    Highlights: {yields} Weight transfer functions for Monte Carlo simulation of coagulation. {yields} Efficient support for single-particle growth processes. {yields} Comparisons to analytic solutions and soot formation problems. {yields} Better numerical accuracy for less common particles. - Abstract: A class of coagulation weight transfer functions is constructed, each member of which leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. These algorithms are based on systems of weighted computational particles and the weight transfer functions are constructed such that the number of computational particles does not change during coagulation events. The algorithms also facilitate the simulation of physical processes that change single particles, such as growth, or other surface reactions. Four members of the algorithm family have been numerically validated by comparison to analytic solutions to simple problems. Numerical experiments have been performed for complex laminar premixed flame systems in which members of the class of stochastic weighted particle methods were compared to each other and to a direct simulation algorithm. Two of the weighted algorithms have been shown to offer performance advantages over the direct simulation algorithm in situations where interest is focused on the larger particles in a system. The extent of this advantage depends on the particular system and on the quantities of interest.

  18. Robustness against extinction by stochastic sex determination in small populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, David M.; do Carmo, Eduardo; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

    2012-10-01

    Sexually reproducing populations with a small number of individuals may go extinct by stochastic fluctuations in sex determination, causing all their members to become male or female in a generation. In this work we calculate the time to extinction of isolated populations with fixed number N of individuals that are updated according to the Moran birth and death process. At each time step, one individual is randomly selected and replaced by its offspring resulting from mating with another individual of the opposite sex; the offspring can be male or female with equal probability. A set of N time steps is called a generation, the average time it takes for the entire population to be replaced. The number k of females fluctuates in time, similarly to a random walk, and extinction, which is the only asymptotic possibility, occurs when k=0 or k=N. We show that it takes only one generation for an arbitrary initial distribution of males and females to approach the binomial distribution. This distribution, however, is unstable and the population eventually goes extinct in 2N/N generations. We also discuss the robustness of these results against bias in the determination of the sex of the offspring, a characteristic promoted by infection by the bacteria Wolbachia in some arthropod species or by temperature in reptiles.

  19. Asthma Medicines: Long-Term Control

    MedlinePlus

    ... Size Email Print Share Asthma Medicines: Long-term Control Page Content Article Body Corticosteroids Synthetic versions of ... form, they are used exclusively for long-term control; they are not very effective for acute symptoms. ...

  20. Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schmitt, Raymond W.; Brown, Neil L.

    2005-01-01

    Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

  1. AB055. Long term NIV

    PubMed Central

    Siopi, Dimitra

    2016-01-01

    During the last decades, non-invasive mechanical ventilation has evolved into one of the most evidence-based areas of respiratory medicine, with many indications in acute or chronic respiratory failure. From the first application of negative pressure models during poliomyelitis epidemics to the new sophisticated positive pressure models, and the development of the “intelligent ventilators”, there has been a long time course. Undoubtedly the spur was given by better understanding of respiratory physiology during sleep and the shift of healthcare towards a chronic base. Novel randomized controlled trials (RCTs) established the use of NIV in acute respiratory failure due to exacerbations of COPD, as well as acute pulmonary edema and weaning from invasive mechanical ventilation. Long-term NIV has been used in neuromuscular diseases for many decades, first in Duchenne muscular dystrophy, and then spreading to other disorders of this category, increasing survival in inherited neuromuscular diseases. NIV should be initiated early in the course of the disease, when symptomatic nocturnal hypoventilation is detected. Combined with cough augmentation (physiotherapy, insufflation-exsufflation devices) and percutaneous gastrostomy feeding, it can delay tracheostomy and invasive ventilation. In ALS patients NIV improves the quality of life and increases survival, especially when there is no bulbar involvement. The right time to initiate ventilation in this group of patients is not well established since it is difficult to detect signs and symptom of respiratory impairment. Patients seem to benefit from an early application of NIV, and their personal decisions should always be considered before any intervention. In patients with chest wall disorders NIV—despite the fact that RCTs are lacking—has proved its value in many uncontrolled trials and numerous reports. It seems to improve the work of breathing, sleep architecture, nocturnal and daytime arterial blood gases. The

  2. Complex Population Dynamics in Mussels Arising from Density-Linked Stochasticity

    PubMed Central

    Wootton, J. Timothy; Forester, James D.

    2013-01-01

    Population fluctuations are generally attributed to the deterministic consequences of strong non-linear interactions among organisms, or the effects of random stochastic environmental variation superimposed upon the deterministic skeleton describing population change. Analysis of the population dynamics of the mussel Mytilus californianus taken in 16 plots over 18-years found no evidence that these processes explained observed strong fluctuations. Instead, population fluctuations arose because environmental stochasticity varied with abundance, which we term density-linked stochasticity. This phenomenon arises from biologically relevant mechanisms: recruitment variation and transmission of disturbance among neighboring individuals. Density-linked stochasticity is probably present frequently in populations, as it arises naturally from several general ecological processes, including stage structure variation with density, ontogenetic niche shifts, and local transmission of stochastic perturbations. More thoroughly characterizing and interpreting deviations from the mean behavior of a system will lead to better ecological prediction and improved insight into the important processes affecting populations and ecosystems. PMID:24086617

  3. Long-Term Planning in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, Bangkok (Thailand). Principal Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific.

    This report presents the concepts and issues discussed at a Regional Symposium on Long-term Planning in Higher Education held in Dhaka, Bangladesh, September 21-30, 1986. Chapter 1 explores some fundamental issues about the rationale for the objectives of long-term planning. It defines long-term planning in higher education, considers its…

  4. Long Term TOA - M Data and Information

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2015-06-30

    A Long-Term TOA and Constrained Surface Radiation Budget Project A Long-Term TOA and Constrained Surface Readiation Budget Dataset Using Merged CERES, ... and apply the knowledge to existing data to develop long-term (nearly 30 years) consistent and calibrated data product (TOA irradiances ...

  5. Influenza in long-term care facilities: preventable, detectable, treatable.

    PubMed

    Mossad, Sherif B

    2009-09-01

    Influenza in long-term care facilities is an ever more challenging problem. Vaccination of residents and health care workers is the most important preventive measure. Although vaccine efficacy has been questioned, the preponderance of data favors vaccination. Antiviral resistance complicates postexposure chemoprophylaxis and treatment. Factors that limit the choice of antiviral agents in this patient population include limited vaccine supplies and impaired dexterity and confusion in long-term care residents.

  6. Dilution as a Model of Long-Term Forgetting

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lansdale, Mark; Baguley, Thom

    2008-01-01

    This article presents a model of long term forgetting based on 3 ideas: (a) Memory for a stimulus can be described by a population of accessible traces; (b) probability of retrieval after a delay is predicted by the proportion of traces in this population that will be defined as correct if sampled; and (c) this population is diluted over time by…

  7. Technology for long-term care.

    PubMed

    Tak, Sunghee H; Benefield, Lazelle E; Mahoney, Diane Feeney

    2010-01-01

    Severe staff shortages in long-term care (LTC) make it difficult to meet the demands of the growing aging population. Further, technology-savvy Baby Boomers are expected to reshape the current institutional environments toward gaining more freedom and control in their care and lives. Voices from business, academia, research, advocacy organizations, and government bodies suggest that innovative technological approaches are the linchpin that may prepare society to cope with these projected demands. In this article, we review the current state of aging-related technology, identify potential areas for efficacy testing on improving the quality of life of LTC residents in future research, and discuss barriers to implementation of LTC technology. Finally, we present a vision of future technology use that could transform current care practices.

  8. Scientific Understanding from Long Term Observations: Insights from the Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estuaries below by removing all incoming freshwater. At Toolik Lake, long-term experiments of removing top predators from the good web of lakes showed dramatic alterations of lake populations of small fish and zooplankton. In New Mexico, LTER research on small mammal populations is successfully predicting rodent increases and the potential for increased zoonotic diseases such as Hantavirus and bubonic plague. This ability to forecast based on El Nino prediction is being used to increase scientific awareness and public health awareness through media based communication with the public. In Oregon, the Andrews Forest LTER program has had long, strong links with natural resource policy and management. Basic understanding of forest-stream interactions, characteristics of old-growth forests, roles of woody debris in temperate forest ecosystems, invertebrate biodiversity and ecosystem function have been incorporated in management guidelines, plans and regulations for public and private lands throughout the Pacific Northwest. Other examples of the values of long-term research and monitoring will be presented.

  9. Stochastic Responses May Allow Genetically Diverse Cell Populations to Optimize Performance with Simpler Signaling Networks

    PubMed Central

    Govern, Christopher C.; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2013-01-01

    Two theories have emerged for the role that stochasticity plays in biological responses: first, that it degrades biological responses, so the performance of biological signaling machinery could be improved by increasing molecular copy numbers of key proteins; second, that it enhances biological performance, by enabling diversification of population-level responses. Using T cell biology as an example, we demonstrate that these roles for stochastic responses are not sufficient to understand experimental observations of stochastic response in complex biological systems that utilize environmental and genetic diversity to make cooperative responses. We propose a new role for stochastic responses in biology: they enable populations to make complex responses with simpler biochemical signaling machinery than would be required in the absence of stochasticity. Thus, the evolution of stochastic responses may be linked to the evolvability of different signaling machineries. PMID:23950860

  10. High Quality Long-Term CD4+ and CD8+ Effector Memory Populations Stimulated by DNA-LACK/MVA-LACK Regimen in Leishmania major BALB/c Model of Infection

    PubMed Central

    Sánchez-Sampedro, Lucas; Gómez, Carmen Elena; Mejías-Pérez, Ernesto; S. Sorzano, Carlos Oscar; Esteban, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Heterologous vaccination based on priming with a plasmid DNA vector and boosting with an attenuated vaccinia virus MVA recombinant, with both vectors expressing the Leishmania infantum LACK antigen (DNA-LACK and MVA-LACK), has shown efficacy conferring protection in murine and canine models against cutaneus and visceral leishmaniasis, but the immune parameters of protection remain ill defined. Here we performed by flow cytometry an in depth analysis of the T cell populations induced in BALB/c mice during the vaccination protocol DNA-LACK/MVA-LACK, as well as after challenge with L. major parasites. In the adaptive response, there is a polyfunctional CD4+ and CD8+ T cell activation against LACK antigen. At the memory phase the heterologous vaccination induces high quality LACK-specific long-term CD4+ and CD8+ effector memory cells. After parasite challenge, there is a moderate boosting of LACK-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells. Anti-vector responses were largely CD8+-mediated. The immune parameters induced against LACK and triggered by the combined vaccination DNA/MVA protocol, like polyfunctionality of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells with an effector phenotype, could be relevant in protection against leishmaniasis. PMID:22715418

  11. Long-Term Economic and Labor Forecast Trends for Washington. 1996.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lefberg, Irv; And Others

    This publication provides actual historical and long-term forecast data on labor force, total wage and salary employment, industry employment, and personal income for the state of Washington. The data are based upon the Washington Office of Financial Management long-term population forecast. Chapter 1 presents long-term forecasts of Washington…

  12. Clinical risk stratification in the emergency department predicts long-term cardiovascular outcomes in a population-based cohort presenting with acute chest pain: primary results of the Olmsted county chest pain study.

    PubMed

    Farkouh, Michael E; Aneja, Ashish; Reeder, Guy S; Smars, Peter A; Bansilal, Sameer; Lennon, Ryan J; Wiste, Heather J; Razzouk, Louai; Traverse, Kay; Holmes, David R; Mathew, Verghese

    2009-09-01

    The long-term cardiovascular outcomes of a population-based cohort presenting to the emergency department (ED) with chest pain and classified with a clinical risk stratification algorithm are not well documented. The Olmsted County Chest Pain Study is a community-based study that included all consecutive patients presenting with chest pain consistent with unstable angina presenting to all EDs in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were classified according to the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research (AHCPR) criteria. Patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction and chest pain of noncardiac origin were excluded. Main outcome measures were major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) at 30 days and at a median follow-up of 7.3 years, and mortality through a median of 16.6 years.The 2271 patients were classified as follows: 436 (19.2%) as high risk, 1557 (68.6%) as intermediate risk, and 278 (12.2%) as low risk. Thirty-day MACCE occurred in 11.5% in the high-risk group, 6.2% in the intermediate-risk group, and 2.5% in the low-risk group (p < 0.001). At 7.3 years, significantly more MACCE were recorded in the intermediate-risk (hazard ratio [HR], 1.91; 95% confidence intervals [CI], 1.33-2.75) and high-risk groups (HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.67-3.58). Intermediate- and high-risk patients demonstrated a 1.38-fold (95% CI, 0.95-2.01; p = 0.09) and a 1.68-fold (95% CI, 1.13-2.50; p = 0.011) higher mortality, respectively, compared to low-risk patients at 16.6 years. At 7.3 and at 16.6 years of follow-up, biomarkers were not incrementally predictive of cardiovascular risk.In conclusion, a widely applicable rapid clinical algorithm using AHCPR criteria can reliably predict long-term mortality and cardiovascular outcomes. This algorithm, when applied in the ED, affords an excellent opportunity to identify patients who might benefit from a more aggressive cardiovascular risk factor management strategy.

  13. Long-term solar-terrestrial observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The results of an 18-month study of the requirements for long-term monitoring and archiving of solar-terrestrial data is presented. The value of long-term solar-terrestrial observations is discussed together with parameters, associated measurements, and observational problem areas in each of the solar-terrestrial links (the sun, the interplanetary medium, the magnetosphere, and the thermosphere-ionosphere). Some recommendations are offered for coordinated planning for long-term solar-terrestrial observations.

  14. Relating Granger causality to long-term causal effects.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, Dmitry A; Mokhov, Igor I

    2015-10-01

    In estimation of causal couplings between observed processes, it is important to characterize coupling roles at various time scales. The widely used Granger causality reflects short-term effects: it shows how strongly perturbations of a current state of one process affect near future states of another process, and it quantifies that via prediction improvement (PI) in autoregressive models. However, it is often more important to evaluate the effects of coupling on long-term statistics, e.g., to find out how strongly the presence of coupling changes the variance of a driven process as compared to an uncoupled case. No general relationships between Granger causality and such long-term effects are known. Here, we pose the problem of relating these two types of coupling characteristics, and we solve it for a class of stochastic systems. Namely, for overdamped linear oscillators, we rigorously derive that the above long-term effect is proportional to the short-term effects, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the prediction interval and relaxation times. We reveal that this coefficient is typically considerably greater than unity so that small normalized PI values may well correspond to quite large long-term effects of coupling. The applicability of the derived relationship to wider classes of systems, its limitations, and its value for further research are discussed. To give a real-world example, we analyze couplings between large-scale climatic processes related to sea surface temperature variations in equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic regions.

  15. Relating Granger causality to long-term causal effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smirnov, Dmitry A.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2015-10-01

    In estimation of causal couplings between observed processes, it is important to characterize coupling roles at various time scales. The widely used Granger causality reflects short-term effects: it shows how strongly perturbations of a current state of one process affect near future states of another process, and it quantifies that via prediction improvement (PI) in autoregressive models. However, it is often more important to evaluate the effects of coupling on long-term statistics, e.g., to find out how strongly the presence of coupling changes the variance of a driven process as compared to an uncoupled case. No general relationships between Granger causality and such long-term effects are known. Here, we pose the problem of relating these two types of coupling characteristics, and we solve it for a class of stochastic systems. Namely, for overdamped linear oscillators, we rigorously derive that the above long-term effect is proportional to the short-term effects, with the proportionality coefficient depending on the prediction interval and relaxation times. We reveal that this coefficient is typically considerably greater than unity so that small normalized PI values may well correspond to quite large long-term effects of coupling. The applicability of the derived relationship to wider classes of systems, its limitations, and its value for further research are discussed. To give a real-world example, we analyze couplings between large-scale climatic processes related to sea surface temperature variations in equatorial Pacific and North Atlantic regions.

  16. Virtual Models of Long-Term Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Phenice, Lillian A.; Griffore, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Nursing homes, assisted living facilities and home-care organizations, use web sites to describe their services to potential consumers. This virtual ethnographic study developed models representing how potential consumers may understand this information using data from web sites of 69 long-term-care providers. The content of long-term-care web…

  17. Long Term Preservation of Digital Information.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lorie, Raymond A.

    The preservation of digital data for the long term presents a variety of challenges from technical to social and organizational. The technical challenge is to ensure that the information, generated today, can survive long term changes in storage media, devices, and data formats. This paper presents a novel approach to the problem. It distinguishes…

  18. Long-Term Nutrition: A Clinician's Guide to Successful Long-Term Enteral Access in Adults.

    PubMed

    Bechtold, Matthew L; Mir, Fazia A; Boumitri, Christine; Palmer, Lena B; Evans, David C; Kiraly, Laszlo N; Nguyen, Douglas L

    2016-09-22

    Long-term nutrition support requires long-term enteral access. To ensure the success of long-term enteral access, many factors need to be taken into consideration. This article represents a guide to placing and maintaining access in patients requiring long-term nutrition and addresses many of the common questions regarding long-term enteral access, such as indications, types of access, feeding after access placed, and recognition and treatment of potential complications. This guide will help the clinician establish and maintain access to maximize nutrition in patients requiring long-term nutrition.

  19. Paying for long-term care.

    PubMed Central

    Estes, C L; Bodenheimer, T

    1994-01-01

    Everyone agrees that insurance for long-term care is inadequate in the United States. Disagreement exists, however, on whether such insurance should be provided through the private or public sector. Private insurance generally uses the experience-rating principle that persons with higher risk of illness are charged higher premiums. For private insurance for long-term care, this principle creates a dilemma. Most policies will be purchased by the elderly; yet, because the elderly have a high risk of needing long-term care, only about 20% of them can afford the cost of premiums. A public-private partnership by which the government partially subsidizes private long-term-care insurance is unlikely to resolve this dilemma. Only a social insurance program for long-term care can provide universal, affordable, and equitable coverage. PMID:8128712

  20. Effects of stochastic population fluctuations in two models of biological macroevolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murase, Yohsuke; Shimada, Takashi; Ito, Nobuyasu; Rikvold, Per Arne

    Two mathematical models of macroevolution are studied. These models have population dynamics at the species level, and mutations and extinction of species are also included. The population dynamics are updated by difference equations with stochastic noise terms that characterize population fluctuations. The effects of the stochastic population fluctuations on diversity and total population sizes on evolutionary time scales are studied. In one model, species can make either predator-prey, mutualistic, or competitive interactions, while the other model allows only predator-prey interactions. When the noise in the population dynamics is strong enough, both models show intermittent behavior and their power spectral densities show approximate 1/f fluctuations. In the noiseless limit, the two models have different power spectral densities. For the predator-prey model, 1/f2 fluctuations appears, indicating random-walk like behavior, while the other model still shows 1/f noise. These results indicate that stochastic population fluctuations may significantly affect long-time evolutionary dynamics.

  1. Impact of stochasticity in immigration and reintroduction on colonizing and extirpating populations.

    PubMed

    Rajakaruna, Harshana; Potapov, Alexei; Lewis, Mark

    2013-05-01

    A thorough quantitative understanding of populations at the edge of extinction is needed to manage both invasive and extirpating populations. Immigration can govern the population dynamics when the population levels are low. It increases the probability of a population establishing (or reestablishing) before going extinct (EBE). However, the rate of immigration can be highly fluctuating. Here, we investigate how the stochasticity in immigration impacts the EBE probability for small populations in variable environments. We use a population model with an Allee effect described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE) and employ the Fokker-Planck diffusion approximation to quantify the EBE probability. We find that, the effect of the stochasticity in immigration on the EBE probability depends on both the intrinsic growth rate (r) and the mean rate of immigration (p). In general, if r is large and positive (e.g. invasive species introduced to favorable habitats), or if p is greater than the rate of population decline due to the demographic Allee effect (e.g., effective stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration decreases the EBE probability. If r is large and negative (e.g. endangered populations in unfavorable habitats), or if the rate of decline due to the demographic Allee effect is much greater than p (e.g., weak stocking of declining populations), then the stochasticity in immigration increases the EBE probability. However, the mean time for EBE decreases with the increasing stochasticity in immigration with both positive and negative large r. Thus, results suggest that ecological management of populations involves a tradeoff as to whether to increase or decrease the stochasticity in immigration in order to optimize the desired outcome. Moreover, the control of invasive species spread through stochastic means, for example, by stochastic monitoring and treatment of vectors such as ship-ballast water, may be suitable strategies

  2. The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

    PubMed

    Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

    2016-06-01

    Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

  3. Long-term treatment of major depressive disorder with paroxetine.

    PubMed

    Duboff, E A

    1993-12-01

    Recurrent unipolar depression is a common, but undertreated disorder. Many patients require long-term maintenance therapy, and full doses of antidepressant agents may be preferred for the prevention of relapse. We report results of a 1-year, multicenter, open-label study of paroxetine (10 to 50 mg/day) in 433 patients with major depressive disorder, with additional data from 110 patients who entered a long-term extension of the study. The primary measures of efficacy were the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression (HAM-D) total and Clinical Global Impression (CGI) severity of illness scores. During the first 6 weeks of therapy, the mean HAM-D total declined approximately 50% (from 27.9 to 13.5), with continued improvement, at an attenuated rate, throughout the first year. At the end of 1 year, the mean HAM-D total was 6.9. Similarly, the CGI severity of illness score declined from 4.6 at baseline to 2.8 at week 6 and to 1.7 at the end of 1 year. Remission was maintained in the population that entered the long-term extension, with mean HAM-D total and CGI severity of illness scores of 6.4 and 1.8, respectively, after 2.5 years, and 4.2 and 1.3 after 4 years. The most common adverse events reported during long-term treatment with paroxetine were somnolence, nausea, headache, and sweating. Pharmacokinetic analysis showed no clear correlation between the concentrations of paroxetine in plasma and either clinical efficacy or tolerability. There was no increased drug accumulation during long-term treatment. Side effects tended to occur early during therapy; and no new side effects emerged during the long-term extension. These results suggest that paroxetine is effective and well tolerated in the long-term treatment of depression.

  4. Globalization, Women's Migration, and the Long-Term-Care Workforce

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Browne, Colette V.; Braun, Kathryn L.

    2008-01-01

    With the aging of the world's population comes the rising need for qualified direct long-term-care (DLTC) workers (i.e., those who provide personal care to frail and disabled older adults). Developed nations are increasingly turning to immigrant women to fill these needs. In this article, we examine the impact of three global trends--population…

  5. Long-term Ecological Monitoring in Schools and Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doberski, Julian; Brodie, Iain D. S.

    1991-01-01

    The value and difficulties of long-term ecological monitoring studies undertaken in schools and colleges are reviewed. Rookeries, stream ecology, sand dune succession, fish population, and seed production and survival are presented as examples of successful studies. This is followed by a discussion of points to consider when setting up a long-term…

  6. Long-Term Care: Common Issues and Unknowns

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swartz, Katherine; Miake, Naoko; Farag, Nadine

    2012-01-01

    All industrialized countries are grappling with a common problem--how to provide assistance of various kinds to their rapidly aging populations. The problem for countries searching for models of efficient and high-quality long-term care (LTC) policies is that fewer than a dozen countries have government-organized, formal LTC policies. Relatively…

  7. Long-Term Consequences of Neonatal Injury

    PubMed Central

    Beggs, Simon

    2015-01-01

    The maturation of the central nervous system’s (CNS’s) sensory connectivity is driven by modality-specific sensory input in early life. For the somatosensory system, this input is the physical, tactile interaction with the environment. Nociceptive circuitry is functioning at the time of birth; however, there is still considerable organization and refinement of this circuitry that occurs postnatally, before full discrimination of tactile and noxious input is possible. This fine-tuning involves separation of tactile and nociceptive afferent input to the spinal cord’s dorsal horn and the maturation of local and descending inhibitory circuitry. Disruption of that input in early postnatal life (for example, by tissue injury or other noxious stimulus), can have a profound influence on subsequent development, and consequently the mature functioning of pain systems. In this review, the impact of neonatal surgical incision on nociceptive circuitry is discussed in terms of the underlying developmental neurobiology. The changes are complex, occurring at multiple anatomical sites within the CNS, and including both neuronal and glial cell populations. The altered sensory input from neonatal injury selectively modulates neuronal excitability within the spinal cord, disrupts inhibitory control, and primes the immune system, all of which contribute to the adverse long-term consequences of early pain exposure. PMID:26174217

  8. Nonlinear Stochastic Markov Processes and Modeling Uncertainty in Populations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-07-06

    growth rate g(x) = rx ( 1− x κ ) and the general tran- sition rates g(x, t) = (a0(t) − a1(t) ln x)x of which the standard Gompertz growth rates g(x) = r...probabilistic formulation (5.4) and the stochastic formulation (5.5), which nicely illustrates our earlier theoretical results. Example 5.3 ( Gompertz ...stochastic version of the generalized Gompertz model ẋ = (a0(t)− a1(t) lnx)x, which has been extensively used in biological and medical research to describe

  9. Roadmap to Long-Term Monitoring Optimization

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This roadmap focuses on optimization of established long-term monitoring programs for groundwater. Tools and techniques discussed concentrate on methods for optimizing the monitoring frequency and spatial (three-dimensional) distribution of wells ...

  10. Mental Health in Long Term Care Settings.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shore, Herbert

    1978-01-01

    There are many ways in which long-term care facilities attempt to cope with the mental health problems of the elderly. The author reviews five factors crucial to effective care for the aged in these facilities. (Author/RK)

  11. Long-term-care legal update.

    PubMed

    Fiesta, J

    1998-04-01

    As more nurses move from the acute care setting to long-term-care and home health care, different practice issues arise. To maximize liability protection, nurses must understand the legal issues unique to each delivery system.

  12. Long-Term Care Ombudsman Program

    MedlinePlus

    ... Provided to Persons Living in Long-Term Care Facilities Program data for FY 2013 indicate that long- ... least quarterly Conducted 5,417 training sessions in facilities on such topics as residents’ rights Provided 129, ...

  13. The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-07-16

    Treasury from the Federal Reserve System, customs duties, estate and gift taxes, and miscellaneous fees and fines. Actual Extended Baseline...Office’s (CBO’s) most recent analysis of the outlook for the federal budget over the long term. My statement today summarizes The 2014 Long-Term Budget...Outlook, which was released yesterday.1 Between 2009 and 2012, the federal government recorded the largest budget deficits relative to the size of

  14. Evidence-based long term care design.

    PubMed

    Calkins, Margaret P

    2009-01-01

    Research on the impact of the built environment in long-term care settings continues to grow. This article focuses on work conducted and published since 2000, when an earlier review on research on dementia and design was published. The vast majority of research that addressed neurological conditions in residents in long-term care settings (assisted living and nursing homes) relates to Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

  15. Assessing the market for long-term care services.

    PubMed

    Rice, J A; Taylor, S

    1984-02-01

    Traditionally, long-term care services have been used by a diverse marketplace. The chronically ill, developmentally disabled, mentally ill and aging population has looked to long-term care support services as a means of physical and emotional support. Much of the time these services were housed together for the sake of efficiency. The enormous burden these services are creating on the economy, and the growing aging population, have forced the recognition that long-term care service delivery systems must change. Alternate programming for long-term care services that reach out into the community and into individual homes is becoming an attractive approach to meeting the growing demands of the marketplace. Home health, specialized housing and creative funding mechanisms such as HMOs, are examples of initiatives undertaken by healthcare organizations that view diversification as a vehicle for survival. Market research techniques that have been used in other industries are being adapted to the healthcare industry to ensure the proper mix of services that are demanded by older, more knowledgeable consumers. The programs of the future will be market driven, with the ability of the individual to pay for such services playing a significant role. The healthcare provider of today is in a position to serve the community in new ways. By becoming an integral link in the long-term care system and by developing new programs, the organization can serve as a catalyst for change. It is up to the governing bodies and managers of these facilities to become visionaries and to accept responsibility for assessing the market for long-term care services and to guide their organization into the future.

  16. Long Term Outcomes after Pediatric Liver Transplantation

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Long term outcomes after liver transplantation are major determinants of quality of life and of the value of this heroic treatment. As short term outcomes are excellent, our community is turning to take a harder look at long term outcomes. The purpose of this paper is to review these outcomes, and highlight proposed treatments, as well as pressing topics needing to be studied. A systemic review of the English literature was carried in PubMed, covering all papers addressing long term outcomes in pediatric liver transplant from 2000-2013. Late outcomes after pediatric liver transplant affect the liver graft in the form of chronic liver dysfunction. The causes include rejection particularly humoral rejection, but also de novo autoimmune hepatitis, and recurrent disease. The metabolic syndrome is a major factor in long term cardiovascular complication risk. Secondary infections, kidney dysfunction and malignancy remain a reality of those patients. There is growing evidence of late cognitive and executive function delays affecting daily life productivity as well as likely adherence. Finally, despite a good health status, quality of life measures are comparable to those of children with chronic diseases. Long term outcomes are the new frontier in pediatric liver transplantation. Much is needed to improve graft survival, but also to avoid systemic morbidities from long term immunosuppression. Quality of life is a new inclusive measure that will require interventions and innovative approaches respectful not only on the patients but also of their social circle. PMID:24511516

  17. Epidemics on networks with heterogeneous population and stochastic infection rates.

    PubMed

    Bonaccorsi, Stefano; Ottaviano, Stefania

    2016-09-01

    In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form of independent stochastic processes. To analyze the problem, we apply a mean field approximation, which allows to get a stochastic differential equations for the probability of infection in each node, and classical tools about stability, which require to find suitable Lyapunov's functions. Here, we find conditions which guarantee, respectively, extinction and stochastic persistence of the epidemics. We show that there exists two regions, given in terms of the coefficients of the model, one where the system goes to extinction almost surely, and the other where it is stochastic permanent. These two regions are, unfortunately, not adjacent, as there is a gap between them, whose extension depends on the specific level of noise. In this last region, we perform numerical analysis to suggest the true behavior of the solution.

  18. Long-term blood pressure variability in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and its impact on cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in RA: a population-based comparative cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Myasoedova, Elena; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Green, Abigail B.; Matteson, Eric L.; Gabriel, Sherine E.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To examine long-term visit-to-visit blood pressure (BP) variability in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) vs non-RA subjects and to assess its impact on cardiovascular events and mortality in RA. Methods Clinic BP measures were collected in a population-based incident cohort of RA patients (1987 ACR criteria met between 1/1/1995 and 1/1/2008) and non-RA subjects. BP variability was defined as within-subject standard deviation (SD) in systolic and diastolic BP. Results Study included 442 RA patients (mean age 55.5 years, 70% females) and 424 non-RA subjects (mean age 55.7 years, 69% females). RA patients had higher visit-to-visit variability in systolic BP (13.8±4.7 mm Hg), than non-RA subjects (13.0±5.2 mm Hg, p=0.004). Systolic BP variability declined after the index date in RA (p<0.001), but not in the non-RA cohort (p=0.73), adjusting for age, sex and calendar year of RA. During the mean follow-up of 7.1 years, 33 cardiovascular events and 57 deaths occurred in RA cohort. Visit-to-visit systolic BP variability was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 mm Hg increase in BP variability 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.25); diastolic BP variability was associated with all-cause mortality in RA (HR 1.14, 95%CI 1.03-1.27), adjusting for systolic and diastolic BP, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, dyslipidemia, use of antihypertensives. Conclusion Patients with RA had higher visit-to-visit systolic BP variability vs non-RA subjects. There was a significant decline in systolic BP variability after RA incidence. Higher visit-to-visit BP variability was associated with adverse cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in RA. PMID:24986852

  19. Population stochastic modelling (PSM)--an R package for mixed-effects models based on stochastic differential equations.

    PubMed

    Klim, Søren; Mortensen, Stig Bousgaard; Kristensen, Niels Rode; Overgaard, Rune Viig; Madsen, Henrik

    2009-06-01

    The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

  20. Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

    PubMed

    Ohlberger, Jan; Rogers, Lauren A; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2014-01-01

    A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans.

  1. Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-02-17

    RESEARCH ARTICLE Optimal Vaccination in a Stochastic Epidemic Model of Two Non-Interacting Populations Edwin C. Yuan1,3, David L. Alderson2, Sean...Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. Based on these results, we determine the optimal alloca- tions of a limited quantity of vaccine between two non-interacting... vaccine , the deterministic model is a poor estimate of the optimal strategy for the more realistic, stochastic case. Introduction As rapid, long-range

  2. Globalization, women's migration, and the long-term-care workforce.

    PubMed

    Browne, Colette V; Braun, Kathryn L

    2008-02-01

    With the aging of the world's population comes the rising need for qualified direct long-term-care (DLTC) workers (i.e., those who provide personal care to frail and disabled older adults). Developed nations are increasingly turning to immigrant women to fill these needs. In this article, we examine the impact of three global trends-population aging, globalization, and women's migration-on the supply and demand for DLTC workers in the United States. Following an overview of these trends, we identify three areas with embedded social justice issues that are shaping the DLTC workforce in the United States, with a specific focus on immigrant workers in these settings. These include world poverty and economic inequalities, the feminization and colorization of labor (especially in long-term care), and empowerment and women's rights. We conclude with a discussion of the contradictory effects that both population aging and globalization have on immigrant women, source countries, and the long-term-care workforce in the United States. We raise a number of policy, practice, and research implications and questions. For policy makers and long-term-care administrators in receiver nations such as the United States, the meeting of DLTC worker needs with immigrants may result in greater access to needed employees but also in the continued devaluation of eldercare as a profession. Source (supply) nations must balance the real and potential economic benefits of remittances from women who migrate for labor with the negative consequences of disrupting family care traditions and draining the long-term-care workforce of those countries.

  3. Long-term symptom relief after septoplasty.

    PubMed

    Sundh, Carolina; Sunnergren, Ola

    2015-10-01

    The results for long-term symptom relief after septoplasty are contradictory in reviewed publications but the findings suggest that results are unsatisfactory. In this study, we analyzed and compared short- and long-term symptom relief after septoplasty and factors possibly associated with symptom relief. 111 patients that underwent septoplasty between 2008 and 2010 were included in the study. Medical charts were reviewed for preoperative characteristics and assessments. Data on short-term symptom relief (6 months) were retrieved from the Swedish National Quality Registry for Septoplasty; data on long-term symptom relief (34-70 months) were collected through a questionnaire. Upon the 34-70 month follow-up, 53% of the patients reported that symptoms either remained or had worsened and 83% reported nasal obstruction. Degree of symptom relief was significantly higher among patients not reporting nasal obstruction than among patients reporting nasal obstruction at long-term follow-up. The proportion of patients that reported "my symptoms are gone" declined from 53% after 6 months to 18% after 34-70 months. None of the factors taken into consideration, age at surgery, gender, follow-up time, primary operation/reoperation, history of nasal trauma, self-reported allergy, rhinometric obstruction, or same sided rhinometric, clinical and subjective nasal obstruction were associated with symptom relief. The long-term results after septoplasty are unsatisfactory. A majority of patients report that their symptoms remain after septoplasty.

  4. Long term cultivation of larger benthic Foraminifera

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöger, Julia; Eder, Wolfgang; Kinoshita, Shunichi; Antonino, Briguglio; Carles, Ferrandes-Cañadell; Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    Benthic Foraminifera are used in a variety of applications employing numerous different methods, i.e. ecological monitoring, studying the effects of ocean acidification, reconstructing palaeo-bathymetry or investigating palaeo-salinity and palaeo-temperature to name only a few. To refine our understanding of ecological influences on larger benthic foraminiferal biology and to review inferences from field observations, culture experiments have become an indispensable tool. While culture experiments on smaller benthic foraminifera have become increasingly frequent in the past century, reports of the cultivation of symbiont bearing larger Foraminifera are rare. Generally, cultivation experiments can be divided into two groups: Culturing of populations and cultivation of single specimens allowing individual investigation. The latter differ form the former by several restrictions resulting from the need to limit individual motility without abridging microenvironmental conditions in the Foraminiferans artificial habitat, necessary to enable the individual to development as unfettered as possible. In this study we present first experiences and preliminary results of the long-term cultivation of larger benthic Foraminifera conducted at the 'Tropical Biosphere Research Station Sesoko Island, University of the Ryukyus', Japan, trying to reproduce natural conditions as closely as possible. Individuals of three species of larger benthic Foraminifera (Heterostegina depressa, Palaeonummulites venosus and Operculina complanata) have been cultured since April 2014. At the time of the general assembly the cultivation experiments will have been going on for more than one year, with the aim to investigate growth rates, longevities and reproduction strategies for comparison with results statistically inferred from application of the of the 'natural laboratory' method. The most important factor influencing foraminiferal health and development was found to be light intensity and light

  5. Integration of Research with Long-Term Monitoring: Breeding Wood Ducks on the Savannah River Site

    SciTech Connect

    Kennamer, R.A.; Hepp, G.R.

    2000-10-01

    In 1981, long-term monitoring of breeding wood ducks was initiated. Females were marked and recaptured for 15 years and annual population parameters were developed. Precise parameter estimates were possible due to high capture rates. The results contribute to the long-term understanding of wood duck populations.

  6. Long-term outcomes of autoimmune pancreatitis

    PubMed Central

    Ikeura, Tsukasa; Miyoshi, Hideaki; Shimatani, Masaaki; Uchida, Kazushige; Takaoka, Makoto; Okazaki, Kazuichi

    2016-01-01

    Autoimmune pancreatitis (AIP) has been considered a favorable-prognosis disease; however, currently, there is limited information on natural course of AIP during long-term follow-up. Recently published studies regarding the long-term outcomes of AIP has demonstrated the developments of pancreatic stone formation, exocrine insufficiency, and endocrine insufficiency are observed in 5%-41%, 34%-82%, and 38%-57% of patients having the disease. Furthermore, the incidence rate of developing pancreatic cancer ranges from 0% to 4.8% during the long-term follow-up. The event of death from AIP-related complications other than accompanying cancer is likely to be rare. During follow-up of AIP patients, careful surveillance for not only relapse of the disease but also development of complications at regular intervals is needed. PMID:27678359

  7. Valuing a long-term care facility.

    PubMed

    Mellen, C M

    1992-10-01

    The business valuation industry generally uses at least one of three basic approaches to value a long-term care facility: the cost approach, sales comparison approach, or income approach. The approach that is chosen and the resulting weight that is applied to it depend largely on the circumstances involved. Because a long-term care facility is a business enterprise, more weight usually is given to the income approach which factors into the estimate of value both the tangible and intangible assets of the facility.

  8. Keratoprosthesis: a long-term review.

    PubMed Central

    Barnham, J. J.; Roper-Hall, M. J.

    1983-01-01

    A keratoprosthesis (KP), is an artificial cornea which is inserted into an opacified cornea in an attempt to restore useful vision or, less commonly, to make the eye comfortable in painful keratopathy. Results o a retrospective study of 35 patients, with 55 KP insertions, are reviewed with regard to visual acuity, length of time vision is maintained, retention time, and complication. Overall there were a number of long-term real successes, eith retention of the KP and maintenance of improved vision in eyes not amenable to conventional treatment. Careful long-term follow-up was needed, with further surgical procedures often being necessary. Images PMID:6860613

  9. [Fetal pain: immediate and long term consequences].

    PubMed

    Houfflin Debarge, Véronique; Dutriez, Isabelle; Pusniak, Benoit; Delarue, Eléonore; Storme, Laurent

    2010-06-01

    Several situations are potentially painful for fetuses, such as malformations and invasive procedures. Nociceptive pathways are known to be functional at 26 weeks. Even if it is not possible to evaluate the fetal experience of pain, it is essential to examine its immediate and long-term consequences. As early as the beginning of the second trimester, hemodynamic and hormonal responses are observed following fetal nociceptive stimulation, In experimental studies, long-term changes have been noted in the corticotrop axis, subsequent responses to pain, and behavior after perinatal nociceptive stimulation.

  10. Stochastic Modeling of the Persistence of HIV: Early Population Dynamics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-10

    also given to the Trident Committee, especially Prof Kidwell , for their support. Finally, I owe a debt of gratitude to friends and family for their...Code 50 4 List of Figures 1.1 Illustration of 3CM 7 2.1 Graphs of R < 1, R > 1 15 2.2 A flow chart representation of the functions involved in...A simulation of the stochastic model with R =8.18 43 6.1 Histograms of end state values from ODE w/ RV coefficients 45 6.2 Histograms of end state

  11. Long-term demographic consequences of a seed dispersal disruption

    PubMed Central

    Traveset, Anna; González-Varo, Juan P.; Valido, Alfredo

    2012-01-01

    The loss or decline of vertebrate frugivores can limit the regeneration of plants that depend on them. However, empirical evidence is showing that this is still very scarce, as functionally equivalent species may contribute to maintain the mutualistic interaction. Here, we investigated the long-term consequences of the extinction of frugivorous lizards on the population persistence of a Mediterranean relict shrub Cneorum tricoccon (Cneoraceae). We examined the demographic parameters among 26 insular and mainland populations, which encompass the entire plant distributional range, comparing populations with lizards with those in which these are extinct, but in which alien mammals currently act as seed dispersers. Plant recruitment was found to be higher on island populations with lizards than on those with mammals, and the long-term effects of the native disperser's loss were found in all vital phases of plant regeneration. The study thus gives evidence of the cascading effects of human-induced changes in ecosystems, showing how the disruption of native ecological processes can lead to species regression and, in the long term, even to local extinctions. PMID:22628466

  12. Marketing in the long-term care continuum.

    PubMed

    Laurence, J Nathan; Kash, Bita A

    2010-04-01

    Today, long-term care facilities are composed of independent, assisted living, and skilled nursing facilities along with many variations of those themes in between. The clientele for these various types of facilities differ because of the level of care the facility provides as well as the amenities long-term care consumers are looking for. However, there many similarities and common approaches to how reaching the target audience through effective marketing activities. Knowing who the target audience is, how to reach them, and how to communicate with them will serve any facility well in this competitive market. Developing marketing strategies for long-term care settings is as important as understanding what elements of care can be marketed individually as a niche market. Determining the market base for a facility is equally crucial since the target populations differ among the three types of facilities. By reviewing current marketing articles and applying marketing practices, we have crafted some general principles for which each facility type can learn from. Finally, we will discuss the types of marketing and how they related to the spectrum of long-term care facilities.

  13. [Psychosocial issues of long-term cancer survivors].

    PubMed

    Weis, J; Faller, H

    2012-04-01

    Although cancer incidence rates are increasing, recent statistical studies suggest that cancer patients are showing higher cure rates as well as improved overall survival rates for most cancer locations. These advances are explained by improved strategies in early diagnoses as well as improved cancer therapies. Therefore, the number of long-term cancer survivors has also increased, but only few studies, especially within the last years, have focused on psychosocial issues of this subgroup. Some studies show that overall quality of life of long-term cancer survivors is quite high and comparable to that of the normal population. Nevertheless, a substantial percentage of former patients shows reduced quality of life and suffers from various sequelae of cancer and its treatment. This review focuses on the most common psychosocial issue of long-term survivors such as reduced psychological wellbeing, neuropsychological deficits and cancer-related fatigue syndrome. Finally, recommendations for problem-oriented interventions as well as improvement of psychosocial care of long-term survivors are given.

  14. Pneumonia in nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

    PubMed

    Loeb, Mark B

    2005-12-01

    This article reviews the epidemiology of pneumonia in residents of nursing homes and other long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Streptococcus pneumoniae is the most important cause of pneumonia in residents of nursing homes and LTCFs. Factors suggestive of aspiration are the most important risk factors for pneumonia in this population. The clinical presentation of pneumonia among long-term care facility residents is challenging; residents tend to be older and more debilitated than their elderly community-dwelling counterparts. Data on optimal antimicrobial therapy in this setting is sparse. Functional status is an important predictor of outcome in this population. There are key management issues, such as site of care, which remain unresolved. Immunization with influenza and pneumococcal vaccines remains the mainstay of prevention.

  15. Long-term studies of dopamine agonists.

    PubMed

    Hubble, Jean P

    2002-02-26

    Dopamine agonists have long been used as adjunctive therapy for the treatment of Parkinson's disease (PD). In more recent years these drugs have also been proved safe and effective as initial therapy in lieu of levodopa in the treatment of PD. Long-term levodopa therapy is associated with motor complications, including fluctuating response patterns and dyskinesia. By initially introducing a dopamine agonist as symptomatic drug therapy, it may be possible to postpone the use of levodopa and delay or prevent the development of motor complications. Recently, four clinical trials have explored this hypothesis by comparing the long-term response and side effects of levodopa with dopamine agonist therapy. The drugs studied have included ropinirole, pramipexole, cabergoline, and pergolide. In each of these projects, the occurrence of motor complications, such as wearing off and dyskinesia, was significantly less in the subjects assigned to initiation of therapy with a dopamine agonist. The addition of levodopa could be postponed by many months or even several years. Therefore, these long-term studies of dopamine agonists support the initiation of a dopamine agonist instead of levodopa in an effort to postpone levodopa-related motor complications. This therapeutic approach may be particularly appropriate in PD patients with a long treatment horizon on the basis of age and general good health. The extension phase of the long-term study comparing pramipexole with levodopa is ongoing, and follow-up information may help to establish the value of this treatment strategy.

  16. Long-Term Memory and Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crossland, John

    2011-01-01

    The English National Curriculum Programmes of Study emphasise the importance of knowledge, understanding and skills, and teachers are well versed in structuring learning in those terms. Research outcomes into how long-term memory is stored and retrieved provide support for structuring learning in this way. Four further messages are added to the…

  17. Who Recommends Long-Term Care Matters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kane, Robert L.; Bershadsky, Boris; Bershadsky, Julie

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: Making good consumer decisions requires having good information. This study compared long-term-care recommendations among various types of health professionals. Design and Methods: We gave randomly varied scenarios to a convenience national sample of 211 professionals from varying disciplines and work locations. For each scenario, we…

  18. Long-term lysimeter data on evapotranspiration

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Long term crop evapotranspiration (ET) data measured using large weighing lysimeters have only been gathered in a few places in the world, yet are of great importance for ground truthing of many models of plant water use, mesoscale climate, remote sensing estimation of ET, climate change and climate...

  19. Long-Term Impacts of Educational Interventions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deming, David James

    2010-01-01

    The school accountability movement has led to a marked increase in the use of standardized test scores to measure school and teacher productivity, yet little is known about the correlation between test score gains and improvements in long-term outcomes. In the first chapter of my dissertation, I study the impact of a school choice policy in…

  20. Long-Term Stability of Tutor Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dolmans, Diana H. J. M.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Examined the extent to which tutor ratings remained stable in the long term by evaluating 291 ratings of 140 tutors at Maastricht University in the Netherlands between 1992 and 1995. The results indicated that, if the aggregated score and overall judgement are used to interpret the precision of individual scores, four and two occasions,…

  1. Long-term opioid therapy reconsidered.

    PubMed

    Von Korff, Michael; Kolodny, Andrew; Deyo, Richard A; Chou, Roger

    2011-09-06

    In the past 20 years, primary care physicians have greatly increased prescribing of long-term opioid therapy. However, the rise in opioid prescribing has outpaced the evidence regarding this practice. Increased opioid availability has been accompanied by an epidemic of opioid abuse and overdose. The rate of opioid addiction among patients receiving long-term opioid therapy remains unclear, but research suggests that opioid misuse is not rare. Recent studies report increased risks for serious adverse events, including fractures, cardiovascular events, and bowel obstruction, although further research on medical risks is needed. New data indicate that opioid-related risks may increase with dose. From a societal perspective, higher-dose regimens account for the majority of opioids dispensed, so cautious dosing may reduce both diversion potential and patient risks for adverse effects. Limiting long-term opioid therapy to patients for whom it provides decisive benefits could also reduce risks. Given the warning signs and knowledge gaps, greater caution and selectivity are needed in prescribing long-term opioid therapy. Until stronger evidence becomes available, clinicians should err on the side of caution when considering this treatment.

  2. Professionalism in Long-Term Care Settings

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lubinski, Rosemary

    2006-01-01

    Speech-language pathologists who serve elders in a variety of long-term care settings have a variety of professional skills and responsibilities. Fundamental to quality service is knowledge of aging and communication changes and disorders associated with this process, institutional alternatives, and the changing nature of today's elders in…

  3. Long Term Care Aide. Course Outline.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilbee, Judy

    This course outline is intended to assist the instructor in the development of a curriculum for a long-term care aide program by specifying one component of the curriculum--the objectives. These objectives, or competencies expected as outcomes for student performance on completion of the program, describe the capabilities an individual must…

  4. Evaluating Long-Term Disability Insurance Plans.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Jan

    1992-01-01

    This report analyzes the factors involved in reviewing benefits and services of employer-sponsored group long-term disability plans for higher education institutions. Opening sections describe the evolution of disability insurance and its shape today. Further sections looks at the complex nature of "value" within a plan, relationship…

  5. LONG TERM HYDROLOGICAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT (LTHIA)

    EPA Science Inventory

    LTHIA is a universal Urban Sprawl analysis tool that is available to all at no charge through the Internet. It estimates impacts on runoff, recharge and nonpoint source pollution resulting from past or proposed land use changes. It gives long-term average annual runoff for a lan...

  6. Long-term fixed income market structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grilli, Luca

    2004-02-01

    Long-term fixed income market securities present a strong positive correlation in daily returns. By using a metrical approach and considering “modified” time series, I show how it is possible to show a more complex structure which depends strictly on the maturity date.

  7. Long-Term Care Research and Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kemper, Peter

    2003-01-01

    This article provides a framework for understanding how long-term care (LTC) research contributes to policy, develops a typology of research contributions to policy with examples of each type, and suggests ways to ensure that contributions continue in the future. The article draws on in-depth interviews with LTC experts working at the interface…

  8. The long term characteristics of greenschist

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jang, Bo-An

    2016-04-01

    The greenschist in the Jinping II Hydropower Station in southwest China exhibits continuous creep behaviour because of the geological conditions in the region. This phenomenon illustrates the time-dependent deformation and progressive damage that occurs after excavation. In this study, the responses of greenschist to stress over time were determined in a series of laboratory tests on samples collected from the access tunnel walls at the construction site. The results showed that the greenschist presented time-dependent behaviour under long-term loading. The samples generally experienced two stages: transient creep and steady creep, but no accelerating creep. The periods of transient creep and steady creep increased with increasing stress levels. The long-term strength of the greenschist was identified based on the variation of creep strain and creep rate. The ratio of long-term strength to conventional strength was around 80% and did not vary much with confining pressures. A quantitative method for predicting the failure period of greenschist, based on analysis of the stress-strain curve, is presented and implemented. At a confining pressure of 40 MPa, greenschist was predicted to fail in 5000 days under a stress of 290 MPa and to fail in 85 days under the stress of 320 MPa, indicating that the long-term strength identified by the creep rate and creep strain is a reliable estimate.

  9. Social evolution and genetic interactions in the short and long term.

    PubMed

    Van Cleve, Jeremy

    2015-08-01

    The evolution of social traits remains one of the most fascinating and feisty topics in evolutionary biology even after half a century of theoretical research. W.D. Hamilton shaped much of the field initially with his 1964 papers that laid out the foundation for understanding the effect of genetic relatedness on the evolution of social behavior. Early theoretical investigations revealed two critical assumptions required for Hamilton's rule to hold in dynamical models: weak selection and additive genetic interactions. However, only recently have analytical approaches from population genetics and evolutionary game theory developed sufficiently so that social evolution can be studied under the joint action of selection, mutation, and genetic drift. We review how these approaches suggest two timescales for evolution under weak mutation: (i) a short-term timescale where evolution occurs between a finite set of alleles, and (ii) a long-term timescale where a continuum of alleles are possible and populations evolve continuously from one monomorphic trait to another. We show how Hamilton's rule emerges from the short-term analysis under additivity and how non-additive genetic interactions can be accounted for more generally. This short-term approach reproduces, synthesizes, and generalizes many previous results including the one-third law from evolutionary game theory and risk dominance from economic game theory. Using the long-term approach, we illustrate how trait evolution can be described with a diffusion equation that is a stochastic analogue of the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. Peaks in the stationary distribution of the diffusion capture classic notions of convergence stability from evolutionary game theory and generally depend on the additive genetic interactions inherent in Hamilton's rule. Surprisingly, the peaks of the long-term stationary distribution can predict the effects of simple kinds of non-additive interactions. Additionally, the peaks

  10. Demographic stochasticity in small remnant populations of the declining distylous plant Primula veris

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kery, M.; Matthies, D.; Schmid, B.

    2003-01-01

    We studied ecological consequences of distyly for the declining perennial plant Primula veris in the Swiss Jura. Distyly favours cross-fertilization and avoids inbreeding, but may lead to pollen limitation and reduced reproduction if morph frequencies deviate from 50 %. Disassortative mating is promoted by the reciprocal position of stigmas and anthers in the two morphs (pin and thrum) and by intramorph incompatibility and should result in equal frequencies of morphs at equilibrium. However, deviations could arise because of demographic stochasticity, the lower intra-morph incompatibility of the pin morph, and niche differentiation between morphs. Demographic stochasticity should result in symmetric deviations from an even morph frequency among populations and in increased deviations with decreasing population size. If crosses between pins occurred, these would only generate pins, and this could result in a pin-bias of morph frequencies in general and in small populations in particular. If the morphs have different niches, morph frequencies should be related to environmental factors, morphs might be spatially segregated, and morphological differences between morphs would be expected. We tested these hypotheses in the declining distylous P. veris. We studied morph frequencies in relation to environmental conditions and population size, spatial segregation in field populations, morphological differences between morphs, and growth responses to nutrient addition. Morph frequencies in 76 populations with 1 - 80000 flowering plants fluctuated symmetrically about 50 %. Deviations from 50 % were much larger in small populations, and sixof the smallest populations had lost one morph altogether. In contrast, morph frequencies were neither related to population size nor to 17 measures of environmental conditions. We found no spatial segregation or morphological differences in the field or in the common garden. The results suggest that demographic stochasticity caused

  11. Long-term biological investigations in space.

    PubMed

    Lotz, R G; Fuchs, H; Bertsche, U

    1975-01-01

    Missions in space within the next two decades will be of longer duration than those carried out up to the present time, and the effects of such long-term flights on biological organisms are unknown. Results of biological experiments that have been performed to date cannot be extrapolated to results in future flights because of the unknown influence of adaptation over a long period of time. Prior experiments with Axolotl, fishes, and vertebrates by our research team (in part with sounding rockets) showed that these specimens did not appear to be suitable for long-term missions on which minimization of expense, technique, and energy is required. Subsequent investigations have shown the suitability of the leech (Hirudo medicinalis), which consumes blood of mammals up to ten times its own weight (1 g) and can live more than 2 years without further food supply. Emphasis in the experiments with Hirudo medicinalis is placed on metabolic rhythm and motility. Resorption and diffusion in tissue, development, and growth under long-term effects of cosmic proton radiation and zero-gravity are other focal points. The constancy of cellular life in the mature animals is a point in favor of these specimens. We have also taken into account the synergistic effects of the space environment on the problems just mentioned. The life-support system constructed for the leech has been tested successfully in four sounding rocket flights and, on that basis, has been prepared for a long-term mission. Long-term investigations out of the terrestrial biosphere will provide us with information concerning the degree of adaptation of certain physiological and biochemical functions and as to what extent biological readjustment or repair processes can occur under the specific stress conditions of space flight.

  12. Pulmonary complications after long term amiodarone treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Roca, J; Heras, M; Rodriguez-Roisin, R; Magriñà, J; Xaubet, A; Sanz, G

    1992-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Amiodarone hydrochloride is an antiarrhythmic agent useful in arrhythmias refractory to standard therapy. Although interstitial pneumonitis is known to be its most serious side effect, several aspects of amiodarone lung toxicity are still controversial. METHODS: Pulmonary side effects were examined in a sample of 61 symptomless patients (mean (SD) age 55 (7) years) who had had long term treatment with amiodarone (daily maintenance dose 400 mg), selected from 482 men attending the University of Barcelona myocardial infarction project. To allow for the confounding effects of coronary artery disease and tobacco history on lung function, 46 patients who had taken amiodarone for more than one year were matched with a control group from the same population. Subjects underwent measurement of lung volumes, arterial blood gas analysis and an incremental bicycle exercise test. RESULTS: Most lung function values were close to predicted values, though there was a small increase in resting alveolar-arterial oxygen tension difference (A-aDO2) at rest (4.8 (1.4) kPa in both groups). There were no differences in the results of forced spirometry or static lung volumes between the two groups, or in the fall in A-aDO2 from rest to exercise. There was a small difference between the amiodarone and the control group in transfer factor for carbon monoxide corrected for lung volume (KCO 1.67 (0.3) and 1.83 (0.3) mmol min-1 kPa-1 l-1 respectively) and in exercise capacity (140 (25) and 120 (30)w). Only three patients showed lung function impairment consistent with pneumonitis. No relation between lung function measures and cumulative doses of amiodarone or desethylamiodarone was found. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of clinically evident pulmonary side effects was 4.9%, which is lower than that reported in studies in which higher daily maintenance doses of amiodarone were given. The slightly lower KCO values and lower work load achieved by the patients taking amiodarone suggest a

  13. Long-Term Care Financing: Lessons From France

    PubMed Central

    Doty, Pamela; Nadash, Pamela; Racco, Nathalie

    2015-01-01

    Context An aging population leads to a growing demand for long-term services and supports (LTSS). In 2002, France introduced universal, income-adjusted, public long-term care coverage for adults 60 and older, whereas the United States funds means-tested benefits only. Both countries have private long-term care insurance (LTCI) markets: American policies create alternatives to out-of-pocket spending and protect purchasers from relying on Medicaid. Sales, however, have stagnated, and the market's viability is uncertain. In France, private LTCI supplements public coverage, and sales are growing, although its potential to alleviate the long-term care financing problem is unclear. We explore whether France's very different approach to structuring public and private financing for long-term care could inform the United States’ long-term care financing reform efforts. Methods We consulted insurance experts and conducted a detailed review of public reports, academic studies, and other documents to understand the public and private LTCI systems in France, their advantages and disadvantages, and the factors affecting their development. Findings France provides universal public coverage for paid assistance with functional dependency for people 60 and older. Benefits are steeply income adjusted and amounts are low. Nevertheless, expenditures have exceeded projections, burdening local governments. Private supplemental insurance covers 11% of French, mostly middle-income adults (versus 3% of Americans 18 and older). Whether policyholders will maintain employer-sponsored coverage after retirement is not known. The government's interest in pursuing an explicit public/private partnership has waned under President François Hollande, a centrist socialist, in contrast to the previous center-right leader, President Nicolas Sarkozy, thereby reducing the prospects of a coordinated public/private strategy. Conclusions American private insurers are showing increasing interest in long-term

  14. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgür D.

    2015-12-01

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced following the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto-type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear, which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed.

  15. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgür D

    2015-12-01

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced following the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto-type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear, which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed.

  16. Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

    2007-01-01

    We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Slow-fast stochastic diffusion dynamics and quasi-stationarity for diploid populations with varying size.

    PubMed

    Coron, Camille

    2016-01-01

    We are interested in the long-time behavior of a diploid population with sexual reproduction and randomly varying population size, characterized by its genotype composition at one bi-allelic locus. The population is modeled by a 3-dimensional birth-and-death process with competition, weak cooperation and Mendelian reproduction. This stochastic process is indexed by a scaling parameter K that goes to infinity, following a large population assumption. When the individual birth and natural death rates are of order K, the sequence of stochastic processes indexed by K converges toward a new slow-fast dynamics with variable population size. We indeed prove the convergence toward 0 of a fast variable giving the deviation of the population from quasi Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, while the sequence of slow variables giving the respective numbers of occurrences of each allele converges toward a 2-dimensional diffusion process that reaches (0,0) almost surely in finite time. The population size and the proportion of a given allele converge toward a Wright-Fisher diffusion with stochastically varying population size and diploid selection. We insist on differences between haploid and diploid populations due to population size stochastic variability. Using a non trivial change of variables, we study the absorption of this diffusion and its long time behavior conditioned on non-extinction. In particular we prove that this diffusion starting from any non-trivial state and conditioned on not hitting (0,0) admits a unique quasi-stationary distribution. We give numerical approximations of this quasi-stationary behavior in three biologically relevant cases: neutrality, overdominance, and separate niches.

  18. Stochastic demography and population dynamics in the red kangaroo Macropus rufus.

    PubMed

    Jonzén, Niclas; Pople, Tony; Knape, Jonas; Sköld, Martin

    2010-01-01

    1. Many organisms inhabit strongly fluctuating environments but their demography and population dynamics are often analysed using deterministic models and elasticity analysis, where elasticity is defined as the proportional change in population growth rate caused by a proportional change in a vital rate. Deterministic analyses may not necessarily be informative because large variation in a vital rate with a small deterministic elasticity may affect the population growth rate more than a small change in a less variable vital rate having high deterministic elasticity. 2. We analyse a stochastic environment model of the red kangaroo (Macropus rufus), a species inhabiting an environment characterized by unpredictable and highly variable rainfall, and calculate the elasticity of the stochastic growth rate with respect to the mean and variability in vital rates. 3. Juvenile survival is the most variable vital rate but a proportional change in the mean adult survival rate has a much stronger effect on the stochastic growth rate. 4. Even if changes in average rainfall have a larger impact on population growth rate, increased variability in rainfall may still be important also in long-lived species. The elasticity with respect to the standard deviation of rainfall is comparable to the mean elasticities of all vital rates but the survival in age class 3 because increased variation in rainfall affects both the mean and variability of vital rates. 5. Red kangaroos are harvested and, under the current rainfall pattern, an annual harvest fraction of c. 20% would yield a stochastic growth rate about unity. However, if average rainfall drops by more than c. 10%, any level of harvesting may be unsustainable, emphasizing the need for integrating climate change predictions in population management and increase our understanding of how environmental stochasticity translates into population growth rate.

  19. Case presentation: long-term treatment.

    PubMed

    Glucksman, Myron L

    2013-01-01

    The long-term (14 years) psychodynamic psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy of a depressed, suicidal, self-mutilating female patient is described. Her diagnoses included Chronic Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Borderline Personality Disorder, and Recurrent Major Depression. Treatment was punctuated with repeated hospitalizations for self-mutilation (cutting) and suicidal ideation. A major determinant for her psychopathology was sexual abuse by her father from ages 6 to 14. This resulted in feelings of guilt and rage that she repressed and acted out through self-mutilating and suicidal behavior. A prolonged negative transference gradually became ambivalent, then positive. This was associated with her internalization of the healing qualities of the therapeutic relationship. She also gained insight into the reasons for her need to punish herself. Her initial self-representation as unworthy and bad was transformed into perceiving herself as a worthwhile, loving person. This case illustrates the role of long-term treatment for a complex, life-threatening, psychiatric disorder.

  20. Interest in Long-Term Care among Health Services Administration Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Temple, April; Thompson, Jon M.

    2011-01-01

    The aging of the population has created increased opportunities for health administrators in long-term care. This study consisted of a cross-sectional survey of 68 undergraduate health services administration students to explore factors related to interest in a career in long-term care administration. One third expressed interest working in the…

  1. Long-term sequelae of electrical injury

    PubMed Central

    Wesner, Marni L.; Hickie, John

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To summarize the current evidence-based knowledge about the long-term sequelae of injuries from electrical current. Quality of evidence MEDLINE was searched for English-language articles published in the past 20 years using the following search terms: electrical, injuries, wound, trauma, accident, sequelae, long-term, follow-up, and aftereffects. For obvious reasons, it is unethical to randomly study electrical injury in controlled clinical trials. By necessity, this topic is addressed in less-rigorous observational and retrospective work and case studies. Therefore, the strength of the literature pertaining to the long-term sequelae of electrical injury is impaired by the necessity of retrospective methods and case studies that typically describe small cohorts. Main message There are 2 possible consequences of electrical injury: the person either survives or dies. For those who survive electrical injury, the immediate consequences are usually obvious and often require extensive medical intervention. The long-term sequelae of the electrical injury might be more subtle, pervasive, and less well defined, but can include neurologic, psychological, and physical symptoms. In the field of compensation medicine, determining causation and attributing outcome to an injury that might not result in objective clinical findings becomes a considerable challenge. Conclusion The appearance of these consequences of electrical injury might be substantially delayed, with onset 1 to 5 or more years after the electrical injury. This poses a problem for patients and health care workers, making it hard to ascribe symptoms to a remote injury when they might not arise until well after the incident event. PMID:24029506

  2. Breakthroughs in long term care design.

    PubMed

    Hiatt, L

    1991-01-01

    In summary, here is what design is trying to accomplish in long term care facilities: Functional access; Privacy as entitlement; Sensory optimization to improve vision and hearing; Reduced walking and wheeling distances that still allow people to be mobile; Effective or functional placement of space and equipment; The option of smaller scale, so neither residents nor staff feel like they are hanging out with a unit full of, perhaps 68, people all the time; Flexibility and adaptability

  3. Electrodes for long-term esophageal electrocardiography.

    PubMed

    Niederhauser, Thomas; Haeberlin, Andreas; Marisa, Thanks; Jungo, Michael; Goette, Josef; Jacomet, Marcel; Abacherli, Roger; Vogel, Rolf

    2013-09-01

    The emerging application of long-term and high-quality ECG recording requires alternative electrodes to improve the signal quality and recording capability of surface skin electrodes. The esophageal ECG has the potential to overcome these limitations but necessitates novel recorder and lead designs. The electrode material is of particular interest, since the material has to ensure conflicting requirements like excellent biopotential recording properties and inertness. To this end, novel electrode materials like PEDOT and silver-PDMS as well as established electrode materials such as stainless steel, platinum, gold, iridium oxide, titanium nitride, and glassy carbon were investigated by long-term electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and model-based signal analysis using the derived in vitro interfacial properties in conjunction with a dedicated ECG amplifier. The results of this novel approach show that titanium nitride and iridium oxide featuring microstructured surfaces did not degrade when exposed to artificial acidic saliva. These materials provide low electrode potential drifts and insignificant signal distortion superior to surface skin electrodes making them compatible with accepted standards for ambulatory ECG. They are superior to the noble and polarizable metals such as platinum, silver, and gold that induced more signal distortions and are superior to esophageal stainless steel electrodes that corrode in artificial saliva. The study provides rigorous criteria for the selection of electrode materials for prolonged ECG recording by combining long-term in vitro electrode material properties with ECG signal quality assessment.

  4. Long term therapy of generalized anxiety disorder.

    PubMed

    Rouillon, Frédéric

    2004-04-01

    Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) is a common (lifetime prevalence: 5.1%), recurrent condition, which often heralds other psychiatric disorders, notably depression. As by definition it is a disorder progressing over months, treatment should be designed on a long term basis. And yet, few studies have been conducted beyond the classical 6-8 weeks characterizing the acute treatment phase. This is especially true of anxiolytics, but also of antidepressants, with the exception of paroxetine and venlafaxine, which are the only drugs approved in this indication in Western countries. The efficacy of psychotherapy, notably relaxation and cognitive-behavioral therapy, is established in the treatment of GAD, but its preferred indications and possible combination with antidepressants are still to be specified. Long term, not to say very long term studies of GAD, as well as depression, will still be required in the future to improve its management and specify therapeutic modalities (combination treatment, optimal duration, continuous or intermittent therapy, choice of psychotherapeutic techniques or agents, em leader ). Early and adequately prolonged treatment should not only result in more numerous remission periods, but also in decreased frequency of co-morbidities whether depressive, addictive, or of another nature, and should also reduce the social impact of GAD.

  5. Titanium for long-term tritium storage

    SciTech Connect

    Heung, L.K.

    1994-12-01

    Due to the reduction of nuclear weapon stockpile, there will be an excess of tritium returned from the field. The excess tritium needs to be stored for future use, which might be several years away. A safe and cost effective means for long term storage of tritium is needed. Storing tritium in a solid metal tritide is preferred to storing tritium as a gas, because a metal tritide can store tritium in a compact form and the stored tritium will not be released until heat is applied to increase its temperature to several hundred degrees centigrade. Storing tritium as a tritide is safer and more cost effective than as a gas. Several candidate metal hydride materials have been evaluated for long term tritium storage. They include uranium, La-Ni-Al alloys, zirconium and titanium. The criteria used include material cost, radioactivity, stability to air, storage capacity, storage pressure, loading and unloading conditions, and helium retention. Titanium has the best combination of properties and is recommended for long term tritium storage.

  6. Infective endocarditis: determinants of long term outcome

    PubMed Central

    Netzer, R O M; Altwegg, S C; Zollinger, E; Täuber, M; Carrel, T; Seiler, C

    2002-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate predictors of long term prognosis in infective endocarditis. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary care centre. Patients: 212 consecutive patients with infective endocarditis between 1980 and 1995 Main outcome measures: Overall and cardiac mortality; event-free survival; and the following events: recurrence, need for late valve surgery, bleeding and embolic complications, cerebral dysfunction, congestive heart failure. Results: During a mean follow up period of 89 months (range 1–244 months), 56% of patients died. In 180 hospital survivors, overall and cardiac mortality amounted to 45% and 24%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, early surgical treatment, infection by streptococci, age < 55 years, absence of congestive heart failure, and > 6 symptoms or signs of endocarditis during active infection were predictive of improved overall long term survival. Independent determinants of event-free survival were infection by streptococci and age < 55 years. Event-free survival was 17% at the end of follow up both in medically–surgically treated patients and in medically treated patients. Conclusions: Long term survival following infective endocarditis is 50% after 10 years and is predicted by early surgical treatment, age < 55 years, lack of congestive heart failure, and the initial presence of more symptoms of endocarditis. PMID:12067947

  7. Short and Long-Term Outcomes for Extremely Preterm Infants

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Ravi Mangal

    2016-01-01

    Prematurity is the leading cause of infant mortality worldwide. In developed countries, extremely preterm infants contribute disproportionately to both neonatal and infant mortality. Survival of this high-risk population has incrementally improved in recent years. Despite these improvements, approximately 1 in 4 extremely preterm infants dies during the birth hospitalization. Among those who survive, respiratory and other morbidities are common, although their effect on quality of life is variable. In addition, long-term neurodevelopmental impairment is a large concern for patients, clinicians and families. However, the interplay of multiple factors contribute to neurodevelopmental impairment, with measures that change over time and outcomes that can be difficult to define and predict. Understanding outcomes of extremely preterm infants can help better counsel families regarding antenatal and postnatal care and guide strategies to improve survival without morbidity. This review summarizes recent evidence to provide an overview into the short- and long-term outcomes for extremely preterm infants. PMID:26799967

  8. A Quantitative Analysis of Factors That Influence Participation in Continuing Education among Nurses Employed in Long-Term Care Facilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Rhoda R.

    2013-01-01

    As the American population ages, the need for more long-term care services will increase. The elderly who are afflicted with a number of chronic illnesses predominantly use long-term care services. By 2020, 12 million older Americans will need long-term care services, and those 65 and older have a 40% chance of entering some type of long-term care…

  9. A minimum stochastic model evaluating the interplay between population density and drift for species coexistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guariento, Rafael Dettogni; Caliman, Adriano

    2017-02-01

    Despite the general acknowledgment of the role of niche and stochastic process in community dynamics, the role of species relative abundances according to both perspectives may have different effects regarding coexistence patterns. In this study, we explore a minimum probabilistic stochastic model to determine the relationship of populations relative and total abundances with species chances to outcompete each other and their persistence in time (i.e., unstable coexistence). Our model is focused on the effects drift (i.e., random sampling of recruitment) under different scenarios of selection (i.e., fitness differences between species). Our results show that taking into account the stochasticity in demographic properties and conservation of individuals in closed communities (zero-sum assumption), initial population abundance can strongly influence species chances to outcompete each other, despite fitness inequalities between populations, and also, influence the period of coexistence of these species in a particular time interval. Systems carrying capacity can have an important role in species coexistence by exacerbating fitness inequalities and affecting the size of the period of coexistence. Overall, the simple stochastic formulation used in this study demonstrated that populations initial abundances could act as an equalizing mechanism, reducing fitness inequalities, which can favor species coexistence and even make less fitted species to be more likely to outcompete better-fitted species, and thus to dominate ecological communities in the absence of niche mechanisms. Although our model is restricted to a pair of interacting species, and overall conclusions are already predicted by the Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, our main objective was to derive a model that can explicitly show the functional relationship between population densities and community mono-dominance odds. Overall, our study provides a straightforward understanding of how a stochastic process (i

  10. Principles of Long-Term Dynamics of Dendritic Spines

    PubMed Central

    Yasumatsu, Nobuaki; Matsuzaki, Masanori; Miyazaki, Takashi; Noguchi, Jun; Kasai, Haruo

    2008-01-01

    Long-term potentiation (LTP) of synapse strength requires enlargement of dendritic spines on cerebral pyramidal neurons. Long-term depression (LTD) is linked to spine shrinkage. Indeed, spines are dynamic structures: they form, change their shapes and volumes or can disappear in the space of hours. Do all such changes result from synaptic activity, or do some changes result from intrinsic processes? How do enlargement and shrinkage of spines relate to elimination and generation of spines, and how do these processes contribute to the stationary distribution of spine volumes? To answer these questions, we recorded the volumes of many individual spines daily for several days using two-photon imaging of CA1 pyramidal neurons in cultured slices of rat hippocampus between postnatal day 17 to 23. With normal synaptic transmission, spines often changed volume or were created or eliminated, thereby showing activity-dependent plasticity. However, we found that spines changed volume even after we blocked synaptic activity, reflecting a native instability of these small structures over the long term. Such “intrinsic fluctuations” showed unique dependence on spine volume. A mathematical model constructed from these data and the theory of random fluctuations explains population behaviors of spines, such as rates of elimination and generation, stationary distribution of volumes and the long-term persistence of large spines. Our study finds that generation and elimination of spines are more prevalent than previously believed, and spine volume shows significant correlation with its age and life expectancy. The population dynamics of spines also predict key psychological features of memory. PMID:19074033

  11. Stochastic weighted particle methods for population balance equations with coagulation, fragmentation and spatial inhomogeneity

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Kok Foong; Patterson, Robert I.A.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Kraft, Markus

    2015-12-15

    Graphical abstract: -- Highlights: •Problems concerning multi-compartment population balance equations are studied. •A class of fragmentation weight transfer functions is presented. •Three stochastic weighted algorithms are compared against the direct simulation algorithm. •The numerical errors of the stochastic solutions are assessed as a function of fragmentation rate. •The algorithms are applied to a multi-dimensional granulation model. -- Abstract: This paper introduces stochastic weighted particle algorithms for the solution of multi-compartment population balance equations. In particular, it presents a class of fragmentation weight transfer functions which are constructed such that the number of computational particles stays constant during fragmentation events. The weight transfer functions are constructed based on systems of weighted computational particles and each of it leads to a stochastic particle algorithm for the numerical treatment of population balance equations. Besides fragmentation, the algorithms also consider physical processes such as coagulation and the exchange of mass with the surroundings. The numerical properties of the algorithms are compared to the direct simulation algorithm and an existing method for the fragmentation of weighted particles. It is found that the new algorithms show better numerical performance over the two existing methods especially for systems with significant amount of large particles and high fragmentation rates.

  12. Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Segura, Juan; Franco, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive. PMID:28151983

  13. Equilibrium solutions for microscopic stochastic systems in population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lachowicz, Mirosław; Ryabukha, Tatiana

    2013-06-01

    The present paper deals with the problem of existence of equilibrium solutions of equations describing the general population dynamics at the microscopic level of modified Liouville equation (individually--based model) corresponding to a Markov jump process. We show the existence of factorized equilibrium solutions and discuss uniqueness. The conditions guaranteeing uniqueness or non-uniqueness are proposed under the assumption of periodic structures.

  14. Long term functional results from major limb replantations.

    PubMed

    Laing, T A; Cassell, O; O'Donovan, D; Eadie, P

    2012-07-01

    Replantation is now firmly established as a viable treatment option in traumatic limb amputation, yet there are few long-term studies describing the functional outcome of these cases. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate long-term results in a population of such patients to determine overall success and patient satisfaction. Since 1981, twenty macro-replants involving nineteen patients have been performed in our unit. All patients were reviewed by means of case note analysis, patient questionnaire, and follow-up clinical evaluation for functional outcome using the Tamai scoring system. Acute limb salvage was successful in 18/20 (90%) cases. One patient is still undergoing secondary reconstructive surgery and was unable to be assessed for final outcome leaving 17 replanted limbs that underwent full functional assessment. Overall functional results were good in 7/17 (41%) limbs, fair in 7/17 (41%) and poor in 3/17 (18%). The majority of patients (12/17) claimed to be highly or well satisfied with their outcome and eleven have returned to work since their injury. The current study of major limb replantation demonstrates favorable or acceptable long term functional outcomes in the majority of cases. High patient satisfaction rates even where results were poor emphasise the positive psychological impact of successful replantation.

  15. Position paper on PRM and persons with long term disabilities.

    PubMed

    Takáč, P; Petrovičová, J; Delarque, A; Stibrant Sunnerhagen, K; Neumann, V; Vetra, A; Berteanu, M; Christodoulou, N

    2014-08-01

    In the current population we observe a rise of chronic health problems often with multiple characteristics. This results in a growing number of people who are experiencing long-term disabilities or difficulties in functioning because of disability. These conditions require a complex response over an extended period of time, that involves coordinated inputs from a wide range of health professionals. This paper argues the central role and benefit of rehabilitation and describes the rehabilitation as an integral component in the management of people with chronic disabilities. It also presents the most important related definitions: long-term care, rehabilitation for chronic disease and disability, the aim of physical and rehabilitation medicine (PRM). An interdisciplinary team is ideal for an effective implementation of rehabilitation for chronic disease and disability. However, the article mainly focuses on defining the role and contribution of the PRM physician in the rehabilitation of persons with long-term disabilities. The article includes: descriptions of his/her key role and competencies, particularly with regard to medical and functional status and prognosis, of the ability to comprehensively define the rehabilitation needs of the patient/person with respect to ICD-WHO classification domains, of the cooperation with other medical specialists and health professionals, of determining the rehabilitation potential, of developing the rehabilitation plan tailored to specific needs, as well as of the contribution of PRM physician in the follow-up care pathways.

  16. Stochastic recruitment leads to symmetry breaking in foraging populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; Dyson, Louise; McKane, Alan

    2014-03-01

    When an ant colony is faced with two identical equidistant food sources, the foraging ants are found to concentrate more on one source than the other. Analogous symmetry-breaking behaviours have been reported in various population systems, (such as queueing or stock market trading) suggesting the existence of a simple universal mechanism. Past studies have neglected the effect of demographic noise and required rather complicated models to qualitatively reproduce this behaviour. I will show how including the effects of demographic noise leads to a radically different conclusion. The symmetry-breaking arises solely due to the process of recruitment and ceases to occur for large population sizes. The latter fact provides a testable prediction for a real system.

  17. Long-Term Wind Power Variability

    SciTech Connect

    Wan, Y. H.

    2012-01-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory started collecting wind power data from large commercial wind power plants (WPPs) in southwest Minnesota with dedicated dataloggers and communication links in the spring of 2000. Over the years, additional WPPs in other areas were added to and removed from the data collection effort. The longest data stream of actual wind plant output is more than 10 years. The resulting data have been used to analyze wind power fluctuations, frequency distribution of changes, the effects of spatial diversity, and wind power ancillary services. This report uses the multi-year wind power data to examine long-term wind power variability.

  18. Transverse dimension and long-term stability.

    PubMed

    Vanarsdall, R L

    1999-09-01

    This article emphasizes the critical importance of the skeletal differential between the width of the maxilla and the width of the mandible. Undiagnosed transverse discrepancy leads to adverse periodontal response, unstable dental camouflage, and less than optimal dentofacial esthetics. Hundreds of adult retreatment patients corrected for significant maxillary transverse deficiency using surgically assisted maxillary expansion (similar to osseous distraction) has produced excellent stability. Eliciting tooth movement for children (orthopedics, lip bumper, Cetlin plate) in all three planes of space by muscles, eruption, and growth, develops the broader arch form (without the mechanical forces of fixed or removable appliances) and has also demonstrated impressive long term stability.

  19. Long-term management of prolactinomas.

    PubMed

    Schlechte, Janet A

    2007-08-01

    Prolactinomas are a frequent cause of gonadal dysfunction and infertility, especially in young women. The regulation of prolactin secretion and the efficacy of dopamine agonists in the therapy of prolactinomas are well established. The current challenges in management of prolactinomas are related to follow-up after successful therapy. Issues and questions to be addressed in this approach to long-term management of prolactinomas include the frequency of radiographic monitoring, effect of pregnancy and menopause, safety of estrogen in women taking oral contraceptives, and the potential for discontinuation of dopamine agonist therapy.

  20. Human Behaviour in Long-Term Missions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1997-01-01

    In this session, Session WP1, the discussion focuses on the following topics: Psychological Support for International Space Station Mission; Psycho-social Training for Man in Space; Study of the Physiological Adaptation of the Crew During A 135-Day Space Simulation; Interpersonal Relationships in Space Simulation, The Long-Term Bed Rest in Head-Down Tilt Position; Psychological Adaptation in Groups of Varying Sizes and Environments; Deviance Among Expeditioners, Defining the Off-Nominal Act in Space and Polar Field Analogs; Getting Effective Sleep in the Space-Station Environment; Human Sleep and Circadian Rhythms are Altered During Spaceflight; and Methodological Approach to Study of Cosmonauts Errors and Its Instrumental Support.

  1. Performance considerations in long-term spaceflight

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akins, F. R.

    1979-01-01

    Maintenance of skilled performance during extended space flight is of critical importance to both the health and safety of crew members and to the overall success of mission goals. An examination of long term effects and performance requirements is therefore a factor of immense importance to the planning of future missions. Factors that were investigated include: definition of performance categories to be investigated; methods for assessing and predicting performance levels; in-flight factors which can affect performance; and factors pertinent to the maintenance of skilled performance.

  2. Long term efficacy of a pen injector.

    PubMed

    Dinneen, S F; Cronin, C C; O'Sullivan, D J

    1991-09-01

    We assessed the long term efficacy of Novopen as a form of insulin administration. Records were obtained on 48 patients who were treated with Novopen between January '86 and October '88. Six patients were excluded due to insufficient data. The study group of 42 patients comprised 22 females and 20 males of average age 33 years (range 17-66). Mean Hb.A1 rose from 10.6% to 12.1% after Novopen therapy, a rise of 14.1%. This rise is both clinically and statistically significant (p less than 0.001; 99% confidence limits 0.59-2.78). Increases in weight and insulin dose were also noted, but did not reach statistical significance. The majority of patients felt Novopen was superior to twice daily insulin in terms of ease of administration (81%) and flexibility of lifestyle (95%), and all who were using Novopen wished to continue with it. More than 50% of patients admitted to altering their dietary habits while using Novopen. Despite continuing patient satisfaction with this form of insulin administration, its long-term use may be associated with sub-optimal metabolic control.

  3. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation.

    PubMed

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-10-22

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as 'storage'. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation--which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes--with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition.

  4. Sleep facilitates long-term face adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Ditye, Thomas; Javadi, Amir Homayoun; Carbon, Claus-Christian; Walsh, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation is an automatic neural mechanism supporting the optimization of visual processing on the basis of previous experiences. While the short-term effects of adaptation on behaviour and physiology have been studied extensively, perceptual long-term changes associated with adaptation are still poorly understood. Here, we show that the integration of adaptation-dependent long-term shifts in neural function is facilitated by sleep. Perceptual shifts induced by adaptation to a distorted image of a famous person were larger in a group of participants who had slept (experiment 1) or merely napped for 90 min (experiment 2) during the interval between adaptation and test compared with controls who stayed awake. Participants' individual rapid eye movement sleep duration predicted the size of post-sleep behavioural adaptation effects. Our data suggest that sleep prevented decay of adaptation in a way that is qualitatively different from the effects of reduced visual interference known as ‘storage’. In the light of the well-established link between sleep and memory consolidation, our findings link the perceptual mechanisms of sensory adaptation—which are usually not considered to play a relevant role in mnemonic processes—with learning and memory, and at the same time reveal a new function of sleep in cognition. PMID:23986109

  5. Climate Predictability and Long Term Memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, X.; Blender, R.; Fraedrich, K.; Liu, Z.

    2010-09-01

    The benefit of climate Long Term Memory (LTM) for long term prediction is assessed using data from a millennium control simulation with the atmosphere ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM. The forecast skills are evaluated for surface temperature time series at individual grid points. LTM is characterised by the Hurst exponent in the power-law scaling of the fluctuation function which is determined by detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). LTM with a Hurst exponent close to 0.9 occurs mainly in high latitude oceans, which are also characterized by high potential predictability. Climate predictability is diagnosed in terms of potentially predictable variance fractions. Explicit prediction experiments for various time steps are conducted on a grid point basis using an auto-correlation (AR1) predictor: in regions with LTM, prediction skills are beyond that expected from red noise persistence; exceptions occur in some areas in the southern oceans and over the northern hemisphere continents. Extending the predictability analysis to the fully forced simulation shows large improvement in prediction skills.

  6. Craniopharyngioma in Children: Long-term Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    STEINBOK, Paul

    2015-01-01

    The survival rate for childhood craniopharyngioma has been improving, with more long-term survivors. Unfortunately it is rare for the patient to be normal, either from the disease itself or from the effects of treatment. Long-term survivors of childhood craniopharyngioma suffer a number of impairments, which include visual loss, endocrinopathy, hypothalamic dysfunction, cerebrovascular problems, neurologic and neurocognitive dysfunction. Pituitary insufficiency is present in almost 100%. Visual and hypothalamic dysfunction is common. There is a high risk of metabolic syndrome and increased risk of cerebrovascular disease, including stroke and Moyamoya syndrome. Cognitive, psychosocial, and emotional problems are prevalent. Finally, there is a higher risk of premature death among survivors of craniopharyngioma, and often this is not from tumor recurrence. It is important to consider craniopharyngioma as a chronic disease. There is no perfect treatment. The treatment has to be tailored to the individual patient to minimize dysfunction caused by tumor and treatments. So “cure” of the tumor does not mean a normal patient. The management of the patient and family needs multidisciplinary evaluation and should involve ophthalmology, endocrinology, neurosurgery, oncology, and psychology. Furthermore, it is also important to address emotional issues and social integration. PMID:26345668

  7. Long term perfusion system supporting adipogenesis

    PubMed Central

    Abbott, Rosalyn D.; Raja, Waseem K.; Wang, Rebecca Y.; Stinson, Jordan A.; Glettig, Dean L.; Burke, Kelly A.; Kaplan, David L.

    2015-01-01

    Adipose tissue engineered models are needed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms and for soft tissue regenerative strategies. Perfusion systems generate more physiologically relevant and sustainable adipose tissue models, however adipocytes have unique properties that make culturing them in a perfusion environment challenging. In this paper we describe the methods involved in the development of two perfusion culture systems (2D and 3D) to test their applicability for long term in vitro adipogenic cultures. It was hypothesized that a silk protein biomaterial scaffold would provide a 3D framework, in combination with perfusion flow, to generate a more physiologically relevant sustainable adipose tissue engineered model than 2D cell culture. Consistent with other studies evaluating 2D and 3D culture systems for adipogenesis we found that both systems successfully model adipogensis, however 3D culture systems were more robust, providing the mechanical structure required to contain the large, fragile adipocytes that were lost in 2D perfused culture systems. 3D perfusion also stimulated greater lipogenesis and lipolysis and resulted in decreased secretion of LDH compared to 2D perfusion. Regardless of culture configuration (2D or 3D) greater glycerol was secreted with the increased nutritional supply provided by perfusion of fresh media. These results are promising for adipose tissue engineering applications including long term cultures for studying disease mechanisms and regenerative approaches, where both acute (days to weeks) and chronic (weeks to months) cultivation are critical for useful insight. PMID:25843606

  8. Long-term experience with indapamide.

    PubMed

    Beling, S; Vukovich, R A; Neiss, E S; Zisblatt, M; Webb, E; Losi, M

    1983-07-01

    Indapamide, 2.5 mg administered once daily for periods up to 36 months, was found to be safe and effective for the long-term control of mild to moderate hypertension. The effects of hydrochlorothiazide, 50 mg, and indapamide, 2.5 mg, were studied in two randomized, double-blind, multicenter trials. Data from the two multicenter trials (20 study sites) were pooled for purposes of comparison. Significant reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure, with patients in both supine and standing positions, occurred in both groups within the first 8 weeks of treatment. This effect was maintained throughout the active treatment period. Success, as determined by the therapeutic success rate (percentage of patients with decreases of standing phase V diastolic blood pressure of at least 10 mm Hg or to below 90 mm Hg), occurred in 53% of the patients given hydrochlorothiazide and in 56% of the indapamide-treated patients. During the study period, the nature, frequency, and severity of adverse reactions were similar for both groups. There was no clinically significant difference between the treatment groups for the laboratory assessments. Patients who completed the multicenter trials were eligible for participation in an ongoing long-term extension study of the safety of indapamide. Data are available for periods up to 36 months and demonstrate neither augmentation of clinical or laboratory adverse effects nor any potentially harmful indicators that could be attributed to prolonged treatment.

  9. Clinical review: Long-term noninvasive ventilation

    PubMed Central

    Robert, Dominique; Argaud, Laurent

    2007-01-01

    Noninvasive positive ventilation has undergone a remarkable evolution over the past decades and is assuming an important role in the management of both acute and chronic respiratory failure. Long-term ventilatory support should be considered a standard of care to treat selected patients following an intensive care unit (ICU) stay. In this setting, appropriate use of noninvasive ventilation can be expected to improve patient outcomes, reduce ICU admission, enhance patient comfort, and increase the efficiency of health care resource utilization. Current literature indicates that noninvasive ventilation improves and stabilizes the clinical course of many patients with chronic ventilatory failure. Noninvasive ventilation also permits long-term mechanical ventilation to be an acceptable option for patients who otherwise would not have been treated if tracheostomy were the only alternative. Nevertheless, these results appear to be better in patients with neuromuscular/-parietal disorders than in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. This clinical review will address the use of noninvasive ventilation (not including continuous positive airway pressure) mainly in diseases responsible for chronic hypoventilation (that is, restrictive disorders, including neuromuscular disease and lung disease) and incidentally in others such as obstructive sleep apnea or problems of central drive. PMID:17419882

  10. Long term changes in the polar vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2015-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented.

  11. Long Term Changes in the Polar Vortices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braathen, Geir O.

    2016-04-01

    As the amount of halogens in the stratosphere is slowly declining and the ozone layer slowly recovers it is of interest to see how the meteorological conditions in the vortex develop over the long term since such changes might alter the foreseen ozone recovery. In conjunction with the publication of the WMO Antarctic and Arctic Ozone Bulletins, WMO has acquired the ERA Interim global reanalysis data set for several meteorological parameters. This data set goes from 1979 - present. These long time series of data can be used for several useful studies of the long term development of the polar vortices. Several "environmental indicators" for vortex change have been calculated, and a climatology, as well as trends, for these parameters will be presented. These indicators can act as yardsticks and will be useful for understanding past and future changes in the polar vortices and how these changes affect polar ozone depletion. Examples of indicators are: vortex mean temperature, vortex minimum temperature, vortex mean PV, vortex "importance" (PV*area), vortex break-up time, mean and maximum wind speed. Data for both the north and south polar vortices have been analysed at several isentropic levels from 350 to 850 K. A possible link between changes in PV and sudden stratospheric warmings will be investigated, and the results presented. The unusual meteorological conditions of the 2015 south polar vortex and the 2010/11 and 2015/16 north polar vortices will be compared to other recent years.

  12. Long term effects of Escherichia coli mastitis.

    PubMed

    Blum, Shlomo E; Heller, Elimelech D; Leitner, Gabriel

    2014-07-01

    Escherichia coli is one of the most frequently diagnosed causes of bovine mastitis, and is typically associated with acute, clinical mastitis. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the long term effects of intramammary infections by E. coli on milk yield and quality, especially milk coagulation. Twenty-four Israeli Holstein cows diagnosed with clinical mastitis due to intramammary infection by E. coli were used in this study. Mean lactation number, days in milk (DIM) and daily milk yield (DMY) at the time of infection was 3.3 ± 1.3, 131.7 days ± 78.6 and 45.7 L ± 8.4, respectively. DMY, milk constituents, somatic cells count (SCC), differential leukocytes count and coagulation parameters were subsequently assessed. Two patterns of inflammation were identified: 'short inflammation', characterized by <15% decrease in DMY and <30 days until return to normal (n = 5), and 'long inflammation', characterized by >15% decrease in DMY and >30 days to reach a new maximum DMY (n = 19). The estimated mean loss of marketable milk during the study was 200 L/cow for 'short inflammation' cases, and 1,500 L/cow for 'long inflammation' ones. Significant differences between 'short' and 'long inflammation' effects were found in almost all parameters studied. Long-term detrimental effects on milk quality were found regardless of clinical or bacteriological cure of affected glands.

  13. Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen.

    PubMed

    Guzzetta, Giorgio; Tagliapietra, Valentina; Perkins, Sarah E; Hauffe, Heidi C; Poletti, Piero; Merler, Stefano; Rizzoli, Annapaola

    2017-02-19

    Stochastic processes play an important role in the infectious disease dynamics of wildlife, especially in species subject to large population oscillations. Here we study the case of a free ranging population of yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis) in northern Italy, where circulation of Dobrava-Belgrade hantavirus (DOBV) has been detected intermittently since 2001, until an outbreak emerged in 2010. We analyzed the transmission dynamics of the recent outbreak using a computational model that accounts for seasonal changes of the host population and territorial behavior. Model parameters were informed by capture-mark-recapture data collected over 14 years and longitudinal seroprevalence data from 2010 to 2013. The intermittent observation of DOBV before 2010 can be interpreted as repeated stochastic fadeouts after multiple introductions of infectious rodents migrating from neighboring areas. We estimated that only 20% of introductions in a naïve host population results in sustained transmission after two years, despite an effective reproduction number well above the epidemic threshold (mean 4.5, 95% credible intervals, CI: 0.65-15.8). Following the 2010 outbreak, DOBV has become endemic in the study area, but we predict a constant probability of about 4.7% per year that infection dies out, following large population drops in winter. In the absence of stochastic fadeout, viral prevalence is predicted to continue its growth to an oscillating equilibrium around a value of 24% (95% CI: 3-57%). We presented an example of invasion dynamics of a zoonotic virus where stochastic fadeout have played a major role and may induce future extinction of the endemic infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  14. Modeling Long-term Vaccination Strategies With MenAfriVac in the African Meningitis Belt

    PubMed Central

    Karachaliou, Andromachi; Conlan, Andrew J. K.; Preziosi, Marie-Pierre; Trotter, Caroline L.

    2015-01-01

    Background. The introduction of MenAfriVac in campaigns targeting people aged 1–29 years across the African meningitis belt has successfully reduced meningitis incidence and carriage due to Neisseria meningitidis group A (MenA). It is important to consider how best to sustain population protection in the long term. Methods. We created a mathematical model of MenA transmission and disease to investigate the potential impact of a range of immunization strategies. The model is age structured; includes classes of susceptible, carrier, ill, and immune people (who may be vaccinated or unvaccinated); and incorporates seasonal transmission and a stochastic forcing term that models between year variation in rates of transmission. Model parameters were primarily derived from African sources. The model can describe the typical annual incidence of meningitis in the prevaccine era, with irregular epidemics of varying size. Parameter and structural uncertainty were explored in sensitivity analyses. Results. Following MenAfriVac introduction at high uptake, the model predicts excellent short-term disease control. With no subsequent immunization, strong resurgences in disease incidence were predicted after approximately 15 years (assuming 10 years’ average vaccine protection). Routine immunization at 9 months of age resulted in lower average annual incidence than regular mass campaigns of 1- to 4-year-olds, provided coverage was above approximately 60%. The strategy with the lowest overall average annual incidence and longest time to resurgence was achieved using a combination strategy of introduction into the Expanded Programme on Immunization at 9 months, 5 years after the initial mass campaigns, with a catch-up targeting unvaccinated 1- to 4-year-olds. Conclusions. These results can be used to inform policy recommendations for long-term vaccination strategies with MenAfriVac. PMID:26553693

  15. SLUG - stochastically lighting up galaxies - III. A suite of tools for simulated photometry, spectroscopy, and Bayesian inference with stochastic stellar populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krumholz, Mark R.; Fumagalli, Michele; da Silva, Robert L.; Rendahl, Theodore; Parra, Jonathan

    2015-09-01

    Stellar population synthesis techniques for predicting the observable light emitted by a stellar population have extensive applications in numerous areas of astronomy. However, accurate predictions for small populations of young stars, such as those found in individual star clusters, star-forming dwarf galaxies, and small segments of spiral galaxies, require that the population be treated stochastically. Conversely, accurate deductions of the properties of such objects also require consideration of stochasticity. Here we describe a comprehensive suite of modular, open-source software tools for tackling these related problems. These include the following: a greatly-enhanced version of the SLUG code introduced by da Silva et al., which computes spectra and photometry for stochastically or deterministically sampled stellar populations with nearly arbitrary star formation histories, clustering properties, and initial mass functions; CLOUDY_SLUG, a tool that automatically couples SLUG-computed spectra with the CLOUDY radiative transfer code in order to predict stochastic nebular emission; BAYESPHOT, a general-purpose tool for performing Bayesian inference on the physical properties of stellar systems based on unresolved photometry; and CLUSTER_SLUG and SFR_SLUG, a pair of tools that use BAYESPHOT on a library of SLUG models to compute the mass, age, and extinction of mono-age star clusters, and the star formation rate of galaxies, respectively. The latter two tools make use of an extensive library of pre-computed stellar population models, which are included in the software. The complete package is available at http://www.slugsps.com.

  16. Managing soils for long-term productivity

    PubMed Central

    Syers, J. K.

    1997-01-01

    Meeting the goal of long-term agricultural productivity requires that soil degradation be halted and reversed. Soil fertility decline is a key factor in soil degradation and is probably the major cause of declining crop yields. There is evidence that the contribution of declining soil fertility to soil degradation has been underestimated.
    Sensitivity to soil degradation is implicit in the assessment of the sustainability of land management practices, with wide recognition of the fact that soils vary in their ability to resist change and recover subsequent to stress. The concept of resilience in relation to sustainability requires further elaboration and evaluation.
    In the context of soil degradation, a decline in soil fertility is primarily interpreted as the depletion of organic matter and plant nutrients. Despite a higher turnover rate of organic matter in the tropics there is no intrinsic difference between the organic matter content of soils from tropical and temperate regions. The level of organic matter in a soil is closely related to the above and below ground inputs. In the absence of adequate organic material inputs and where cultivation is continuous, soil organic matter declines progressively. Maintaining the quantity and quality of soil organic matter should be a guiding principle in developing management practices.
    Soil microbial biomass serves as an important reservoir of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and sulphur (S), and regulates the cycling of organic matter and nutrients. Because of its high turnover rate, microbial biomass reacts quickly to changes in management and is a sensitive indicator for monitoring and predicting changes in soil organic matter. Modelling techniques have been reasonably successful in predicting changes in soil organic matter with different organic material inputs, but there is little information from the tropics.
    Nutrient depletion through harvested crop components and residue removal, and by leaching and soil

  17. The Stochastic Evolutionary Game for a Population of Biological Networks Under Natural Selection

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Bor-Sen; Ho, Shih-Ju

    2014-01-01

    In this study, a population of evolutionary biological networks is described by a stochastic dynamic system with intrinsic random parameter fluctuations due to genetic variations and external disturbances caused by environmental changes in the evolutionary process. Since information on environmental changes is unavailable and their occurrence is unpredictable, they can be considered as a game player with the potential to destroy phenotypic stability. The biological network needs to develop an evolutionary strategy to improve phenotypic stability as much as possible, so it can be considered as another game player in the evolutionary process, ie, a stochastic Nash game of minimizing the maximum network evolution level caused by the worst environmental disturbances. Based on the nonlinear stochastic evolutionary game strategy, we find that some genetic variations can be used in natural selection to construct negative feedback loops, efficiently improving network robustness. This provides larger genetic robustness as a buffer against neutral genetic variations, as well as larger environmental robustness to resist environmental disturbances and maintain a network phenotypic traits in the evolutionary process. In this situation, the robust phenotypic traits of stochastic biological networks can be more frequently selected by natural selection in evolution. However, if the harbored neutral genetic variations are accumulated to a sufficiently large degree, and environmental disturbances are strong enough that the network robustness can no longer confer enough genetic robustness and environmental robustness, then the phenotype robustness might break down. In this case, a network phenotypic trait may be pushed from one equilibrium point to another, changing the phenotypic trait and starting a new phase of network evolution through the hidden neutral genetic variations harbored in network robustness by adaptive evolution. Further, the proposed evolutionary game is extended to

  18. Long-term global nuclear energy and fuel cycle strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Krakowski, R.A.

    1997-09-24

    The Global Nuclear Vision Project is examining, using scenario building techniques, a range of long-term nuclear energy futures. The exploration and assessment of optimal nuclear fuel-cycle and material strategies is an essential element of the study. To this end, an established global E{sup 3} (energy/economics/environmental) model has been adopted and modified with a simplified, but comprehensive and multi-regional, nuclear energy module. Consistent nuclear energy scenarios are constructed using this multi-regional E{sup 3} model, wherein future demands for nuclear power are projected in price competition with other energy sources under a wide range of long-term demographic (population, workforce size and productivity), economic (price-, population-, and income-determined demand for energy services, price- and population-modified GNP, resource depletion, world-market fossil energy prices), policy (taxes, tariffs, sanctions), and top-level technological (energy intensity and end-use efficiency improvements) drivers. Using the framework provided by the global E{sup 3} model, the impacts of both external and internal drivers are investigated. The ability to connect external and internal drivers through this modeling framework allows the study of impacts and tradeoffs between fossil- versus nuclear-fuel burning, that includes interactions between cost, environmental, proliferation, resource, and policy issues.

  19. Long term performance of radon mitigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Prill, R.; Fisk, W.J.

    2002-03-01

    Researchers installed radon mitigation systems in 12 houses in Spokane, Washington and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho during the heating season 1985--1986 and continued to monitor indoor radon quarterly and annually for ten years. The mitigation systems included active sub-slab ventilation, basement over-pressurization, and crawlspace isolation and ventilation. The occupants reported various operational problems with these early mitigation systems. The long-term radon measurements were essential to track the effectiveness of the mitigation systems over time. All 12 homes were visited during the second year of the study, while a second set 5 homes was visited during the fifth year to determine the cause(s) of increased radon in the homes. During these visits, the mitigation systems were inspected and measurements of system performance were made. Maintenance and modifications were performed to improve system performance in these homes.

  20. Long-term U. S. energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Friesen, G.

    1984-01-01

    Each year Chase Econometrics offers its clients a brief summary of the assumptions underlying the long-term energy forecast for the U.S. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they choose to compare forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Particular emphasis is placed on Scenario B, which is the mid-range reference case. As the introduction to the supplement emphasizes, the NEPP projections should not be considered a statement of the policy goals of the Reagan Administration. They represent an analysis of the possible evolution of U.S. energy markets, given current information and existing policies. The purpose of providing Scenario B as a reference case as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand.

  1. Withdrawal from long-term benzodiazepine treatment.

    PubMed Central

    Petursson, H; Lader, M H

    1981-01-01

    Long-term, normal-dose benzodiazepine treatment was discontinued in 16 patients who were suspected of being dependent on their medication. The withdrawal was gradual, placebo-controlled, and double-blind. All the patients experienced some form of withdrawal reaction, which ranged from anxiety and dysphoria to moderate affective and perceptual changes. Symptom ratings rose as the drugs were discontinued, but usually subsided to prewithdrawal levels over the next two to four weeks. Other features of the withdrawal included disturbance of sleep and appetite and noticeable weight loss. Electroencephalography showed appreciable reduction in fast-wave activity as the drugs were withdrawn, and an improvement in psychological performance was recorded by the Digit Symbol Substitution Test. Because of the risk of dependence on benzodiazepines these agents should probably not be given as regular daily treatment for chronic anxiety. PMID:6114776

  2. Long-term control of root growth

    DOEpatents

    Burton, Frederick G.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Cline, John F.; Skiens, W. Eugene

    1992-05-26

    A method and system for long-term control of root growth without killing the plants bearing those roots involves incorporating a 2,6-dinitroaniline in a polymer and disposing the polymer in an area in which root control is desired. This results in controlled release of the substituted aniline herbicide over a period of many years. Herbicides of this class have the property of preventing root elongation without translocating into other parts of the plant. The herbicide may be encapsulated in the polymer or mixed with it. The polymer-herbicide mixture may be formed into pellets, sheets, pipe gaskets, pipes for carrying water, or various other forms. The invention may be applied to other protection of buried hazardous wastes, protection of underground pipes, prevention of root intrusion beneath slabs, the dwarfing of trees or shrubs and other applications. The preferred herbicide is 4-difluoromethyl-N,N-dipropyl-2,6-dinitro-aniline, commonly known as trifluralin.

  3. [Childhood liver transplantation. Long-term results].

    PubMed

    Jara, Paloma; Hierro, Loreto

    2010-05-01

    Liver transplantation allows long-term survival (10 years or more) in 75% of children receiving transplants before 2000. The risk of mortality after the first year is 4-10% in the next 10-20 years. Chronic rejection affects 6%. The need for late retransplantation is 3-5%. However, the follow-up of these patients involves the management of diverse problems in the graft (immunological, biliary, vascular) and others related to the use of immunosuppressants (renal dysfunction, lymphoproliferative syndrome). The transition from pediatric to adult care generates special needs. Adolescence and young adulthood are associated with a lack of compliance. Adult specialists should be aware of the special features of the original diagnosis and the surgical techniques used in childhood transplantation. Final quality of life is good overall but is lower than that in healthy young persons.

  4. Advanced long term cryogenic storage systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Norman S.

    1987-01-01

    Long term, cryogenic fluid storage facilities will be required to support future space programs such as the space-based Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), Telescopes, and Laser Systems. An orbital liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen storage system with an initial capacity of approximately 200,000 lb will be required. The storage facility tank design must have the capability of fluid acquisition in microgravity and limit cryogen boiloff due to environmental heating. Cryogenic boiloff management features, minimizing Earth-to-orbit transportation costs, will include advanced thick multilayer insulation/integrated vapor cooled shield concepts, low conductance support structures, and refrigeration/reliquefaction systems. Contracted study efforts are under way to develop storage system designs, technology plans, test article hardware designs, and develop plans for ground/flight testing.

  5. [Enteral nutrition through long-term jejunostomy].

    PubMed

    Fernández, T; Neira, P; Enríquez, C

    2008-01-01

    We present the case of a female patient suffering a peritonitis episode after subtotal gastrectomy due to gastric neoplasm in relation to lesser curvature necrosis extending to the anterior esophageal wall. This an uncommon andsevere complication that made mandatory further aggressive surgery: transection of the abdominal esophagus, transection of the gastric stump, and cervical esophagostomy with creation of a jejunostomy with a needle catheter for feeding. This digestive tube access technique is generally used during major abdominal post-surgery until oral intake is reestablished. Our patient has been 187 days with this therapy since reconstruction of the GI tract was ruled out due to tumoral infiltration of the colon and tumor recurrence at the gastrohepatic omentum. To date, there has been no complication from permanence and/or long-term use of this technique.

  6. Reducing long-term reservoir performance uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Lippmann, M.J.

    1988-04-01

    Reservoir performance is one of the key issues that have to be addressed before going ahead with the development of a geothermal field. In order to select the type and size of the power plant and design other surface installations, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the production wells and of the produced fluids, and to predict the changes over a 10--30 year period. This is not a straightforward task, as in most cases the calculations have to be made on the basis of data collected before significant fluid volumes have been extracted from the reservoir. The paper describes the methodology used in predicting the long-term performance of hydrothermal systems, as well as DOE/GTD-sponsored research aimed at reducing the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 27 refs., 1 fig.

  7. Long-term monitoring for closed sites

    SciTech Connect

    Golchert, N.W.; Sedlet, J.; Veluri, V.R.

    1985-01-01

    A procedure is presented for planning and implementing a long-term environmental monitoring program for closed low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The initial task in this procedure is to collect the available information on the legal/regulatory requirements, site and area characteristics, source term, pathway analysis, and prior monitoring results. This information is coupled with parameters such as half-life and retardation factors to develop a monitoring program. As examples, programs are presented for a site that has had little or no waste migration, and for sites where waste has been moved by suface water, by ground water, and by air. Sampling techniques and practices are discussed relative to how a current program would be structured and projections are made on techniques and practices expected to be available in the future. 8 refs., 2 figs.

  8. Neurotoxicity testing during long-term studies.

    PubMed

    Ivens, I

    1990-01-01

    Several tests and methods for the investigation of neurotoxicity were performed with female Wistar rats for up to 187 days. The methods were validated by testing 10 rats treated with beta,beta'-iminodipropionitrile (IDPN) and 10 control rats. Cage side observation of the animals revealed signs of altered behavior and motor dysfunction of the IDPN-treated rats. Results of a neuromuscular screen indicated changes in gait, righting reflex, grip strength and performance of the negative geotropism test. Investigation of the animals in activity monitors and on the accelerating rotarod showed changes of several parameters. The motor nerve conduction velocity, measured 6 months after the first treatment, was reduced by 6.7 meters per second in the IDPN group compared to controls. From the results of the tests it can be concluded that the methods chosen can be used during long-term studies but may be most useful for animals not older than 12 months.

  9. Long term cryogenic storage facility systems study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuster, John R.

    1987-01-01

    The Long Term Cryogenic Storage Facility Systems Study (LTCSFSS) is a Phase A study of a large capacity propellant depot for the space based, cryogenic orbital transfer vehicle. The study is being performed for Marshall Space Flight Center by General Dynamics Space Systems Division and has five principal objectives: (1) Definition of preliminary concept designs for four storage facility concepts; (2) Selection of preferred concepts through the application of trade studies to candidate propellant management system components; (3) Preparation of a conceptual design for an orbital storage facility; (4) Development of supporting research and technology requirements; and (5) Development of a test program to demonstrate facility performance. The initial study has been completed, and continuation activities are just getting under way to provide greater detail in key areas and accommodate changes in study guidelines and assumptions.

  10. Managing Records for the Long Term - 12363

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, John V.; Gueretta, Jeanie

    2012-07-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for managing vast amounts of information documenting historical and current operations. This information is critical to the operations of the DOE Office of Legacy Management. Managing legacy records and information is challenging in terms of accessibility and changing technology. The Office of Legacy Management is meeting these challenges by making records and information management an organizational priority. The Office of Legacy Management mission is to manage DOE post-closure responsibilities at former Cold War weapons sites to ensure the future protection of human health and the environment. These responsibilities include environmental stewardship and long-term preservation and management of operational and environmental cleanup records associated with each site. A primary organizational goal for the Office of Legacy Management is to 'Preserve, Protect, and Share Records and Information'. Managing records for long-term preservation is an important responsibility. Adequate and dedicated resources and management support are required to perform this responsibility successfully. Records tell the story of an organization and may be required to defend an organization in court, provide historical information, identify lessons learned, or provide valuable information for researchers. Loss of records or the inability to retrieve records because of poor records management processes can have serious consequences and even lead to an organisation's downfall. Organizations must invest time and resources to establish a good records management program because of its significance to the organization as a whole. The Office of Legacy Management will continue to research and apply innovative ways of doing business to ensure that the organization stays at the forefront of effective records and information management. DOE is committed to preserving records that document our nation's Cold War legacy, and the Office of Legacy

  11. Posterior urethral valves: long-term outcome.

    PubMed

    Caione, Paolo; Nappo, Simona Gerocarni

    2011-10-01

    Posterior urethral valves represent the most common cause of bladder outlet obstruction in infancy that impairs renal and bladder function. Long-term outcome of patients with previous PUV is evaluated. Patients over 18 years of age, treated from 1982 to 1995 before the age of 3 years were considered. Previous surgery, renal function, bladder activity, urinary incontinence, and fertility/sexual activity were evaluated. Clinical interview, creatinine clearance, uroflowmetry with ultrasound post-void urine residue, and self-administered questionnaire were recorded. Out of 45 identified records, 24 patients (53.3%) accepted to be enrolled (age 18-34 years, mean 23 years). The mean follow-up was 19.5 years (16-30 years). Out of the 21 excluded patients, 20 did not reply to the clinical interview and 1 died at age of 6 years. All the 24 patients had early endoscopic section of PUV; nine also received transient ureterocutaneostomy or vesicostomy. Ureteroneocystostomy was performed in five patients and ureterocystoplasty with unilateral nephrectomy in two. At follow-up chronic renal failure was detected in 13 patients (54.1%) and 9 (37.5%) had arterial hypertension. End-stage renal disease developed in five patients (20.8%): three had successful renal transplantation and two were in dialysis. Lower urinary tract symptoms were present in seven patients (29.1%). No significant fertility deficit and sexual dysfunction were observed in 23 patients, while 1 patient was azoospermic. No paternity was reported so far. Long-term outcome of patients with previously treated PUV is mandatory. Kidney, bladder, and sexual functions should be monitored till adulthood to verify any modified behaviour.

  12. The effects of spatial correlations and demographic stochasticity on population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, Robin Elizabeth

    2001-12-01

    Because of limited mobility and localized interactions, most organisms do not interact equally with all parts of their environment but instead with a limited neighborhood. The resulting spatial correlations affect population dynamics. The discreteness of organisms can also affect population dynamics. Because population size cannot change by less than one, and size-changing events such as births and deaths occur at distinct times, population dynamics are noisy. For large populations, this so-called ``demographic stochasticity'' is often ignorable, but when population size is small, either throughout the system or in a region, noise can have important consequences. This dissertation explores the combined effects of spatial correlations and population discreteness. Chapter II discusses the limitations of many traditional physics techniques in analyzing ecological models. Chapters III and IV consider grid-based models. Every grid point can be vacant or occupied by an individual, and individuals interact according to simple, probabilistic rules. In chapter III, I develop approximate equations for the population mean and variance, including the effects of demographic stochasticity, by ignoring all but very short-range spatial correlations (a moment closure scheme). I apply this to a grid model and obtain expressions for population mean and variance. In chapter IV, I develop an empirical moment closure scheme based on observed spatial correlations. This leads to expressions for population mean and variance that are both simpler and more accurate, as well as to probability distributions for how long the population will take to reach a given, low level. Subsequently, I turn to the effects of population discreteness on the spread of newly introduced species. In chapter V, I analyze a common class of one- dimensional, single-species invasion models and find three effects of population discreteness and demographic stochasticity on invasion speed. The result is that for very

  13. The long-term health of vegetarians and vegans.

    PubMed

    Appleby, Paul N; Key, Timothy J

    2016-08-01

    Vegetarians, who do not eat any meat, poultry or fish, constitute a significant minority of the world's population. Lacto-ovo-vegetarians consume dairy products and/or eggs, whereas vegans do not eat any foods derived wholly or partly from animals. Concerns over the health, environmental and economic consequences of a diet rich in meat and other animal products have focussed attention on those who exclude some or all of these foods from their diet. There has been extensive research into the nutritional adequacy of vegetarian diets, but less is known about the long-term health of vegetarians and vegans. We summarise the main findings from large cross-sectional and prospective cohort studies in western countries with a high proportion of vegetarian participants. Vegetarians have a lower prevalence of overweight and obesity and a lower risk of IHD compared with non-vegetarians from a similar background, whereas the data are equivocal for stroke. For cancer, there is some evidence that the risk for all cancer sites combined is slightly lower in vegetarians than in non-vegetarians, but findings for individual cancer sites are inconclusive. Vegetarians have also been found to have lower risks for diabetes, diverticular disease and eye cataract. Overall mortality is similar for vegetarians and comparable non-vegetarians, but vegetarian groups compare favourably with the general population. The long-term health of vegetarians appears to be generally good, and for some diseases and medical conditions it may be better than that of comparable omnivores. Much more research is needed, particularly on the long-term health of vegans.

  14. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian.

    PubMed

    Hossack, Blake R; Adams, Michael J; Pearl, Christopher A; Wilson, Kristine W; Bull, Evelyn L; Lohr, Kristin; Patla, Debra; Pilliod, David S; Jones, Jason M; Wheeler, Kevin K; McKay, Samuel P; Corn, Paul Stephen

    2013-12-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change. Papeles de las Características del Fragmento, Frecuencia de Sequía y Restauración en las Tendencias a Largo Plazo de un Anfibio Ampliamente Distribuido.

  15. Roles of patch characteristics, drought frequency, and restoration in long-term trends of a widespread amphibian

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hossack, Blake R.; Adams, Michael J.; Pearl, Christopher A.; Pilliod, David S.; Corn, P. Stephen; , KRISTINE W. WILSON; , EVELYN L. BULL; , KRISTIN LOHR; , DEBRA PATLA; , JASON JONES

    2013-01-01

    Despite the high profile of amphibian declines and the increasing threat of drought and fragmentation to aquatic ecosystems, few studies have examined long-term rates of change for a single species across a large geographic area. We analyzed growth in annual egg-mass counts of the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) across the northwestern United States, an area encompassing 3 genetic clades. On the basis of data collected by multiple partners from 98 water bodies between 1991 and 2011, we used state-space and linear-regression models to measure effects of patch characteristics, frequency of summer drought, and wetland restoration on population growth. Abundance increased in the 2 clades with greatest decline history, but declined where populations are considered most secure. Population growth was negatively associated with temporary hydroperiods and landscape modification (measured by the human footprint index), but was similar in modified and natural water bodies. The effect of drought was mediated by the size of the water body: populations in large water bodies maintained positive growth despite drought, whereas drought magnified declines in small water bodies. Rapid growth in restored wetlands in areas of historical population declines provided strong evidence of successful management. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining large areas of habitat and underscore the greater vulnerability of small areas of habitat to environmental stochasticity. Similar long-term growth rates in modified and natural water bodies and rapid, positive responses to restoration suggest pond construction and other forms of management can effectively increase population growth. These tools are likely to become increasingly important to mitigate effects of increased drought expected from global climate change.

  16. Long-term patterns in Iberian hare population dynamics in a protected area (Doñana National Park) in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula: Effects of weather conditions and plant cover.

    PubMed

    Carro, Francisco; Soriguer, Ramón C

    2017-01-01

    The Iberian hare (Lepus granatensis) is a widely distributed endemic species in the Iberian Peninsula. To improve our knowledge of its population dynamics, the relative abundance and population trends of the Iberian hare were studied in the autumns of 1995-2012 in a protected area (Doñana National Park) by spotlighting in 2 different habitats: marshland and ecotones. The average relative abundance was 0.38 hare/km (SD = 0.63) in the marshland and 3.6 hares/km (SD = 4.09) in ecotones. The Iberian hare population exhibited local interannual fluctuations and a negative population trend during the study period (1995-2012). The results suggest that its populations are in decline. The flooding of parts of the marshland in June, July and October favor hare abundance in the ecotone. Hare abundance in the marshland increases as the flooded surface area increases in October. These effects are more pronounced if the rains are early (October) and partially flood the marsh. By contrast, when marsh grasses and graminoids are very high and thick (as measured using the aerial herbaceous biomass [biomass marshland] as a proxy), the abundance of hares decreases dramatically as does the area of the marsh that is flooded (in November).

  17. Using Dynamic Stochastic Modelling to Estimate Population Risk Factors in Infectious Disease: The Example of FIV in 15 Cat Populations

    PubMed Central

    Fouchet, David; Leblanc, Guillaume; Sauvage, Frank; Guiserix, Micheline; Poulet, Hervé; Pontier, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Background In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV) is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. Methodology/Principal Findings To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively) on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. Conclusion Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease. PMID:19888418

  18. The effects of long-term captivity on the metabolic parameters of a small Afrotropical bird.

    PubMed

    Thompson, Lindy J; Brown, Mark; Downs, Colleen T

    2015-04-01

    The few within-species studies on the effects of long-term captivity on avian physiological variables have small samples sizes and contradictory results. Nevertheless, many physiological studies make use of long-term captive birds, assuming the results will be applicable to wild populations. Here we investigated the effects of long-term captivity on a variety of physiological measurements in a relatively small (~12 g) southern African endemic bird, the Cape white-eye (Zosterops virens). Whole animal basal metabolic rate (BMR) and body mass (Mb) were influenced more by long-term captivity than by season, while mass-specific BMR, standard and basal whole animal and mass-specific evaporative water loss (EWL), and respiratory quotient (RQ), were all affected primarily by season, with long-term captivity having less of an effect. We therefore caution that whole animal BMR and Mb of long-term captive birds should not be used as representative of wild populations, and that the origin of study birds should be considered when comparing EWL and RQ of wild and long-term captive birds.

  19. Star Cluster Properties in Two LEGUS Galaxies Computed with Stochastic Stellar Population Synthesis Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krumholz, Mark R.; Adamo, Angela; Fumagalli, Michele; Wofford, Aida; Calzetti, Daniela; Lee, Janice C.; Whitmore, Bradley C.; Bright, Stacey N.; Grasha, Kathryn; Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Kim, Hwihyun; Nair, Preethi; Ryon, Jenna E.; Smith, Linda J.; Thilker, David; Ubeda, Leonardo; Zackrisson, Erik

    2015-10-01

    We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

  20. STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    Krumholz, Mark R.; Adamo, Angela; Fumagalli, Michele; Wofford, Aida; Calzetti, Daniela; Grasha, Kathryn; Lee, Janice C.; Whitmore, Bradley C.; Bright, Stacey N.; Ubeda, Leonardo; Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Kim, Hwihyun; Nair, Preethi; Ryon, Jenna E.; Smith, Linda J.; Zackrisson, Erik E-mail: adamo@astro.su.se

    2015-10-20

    We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

  1. Solving the problem of negative populations in approximate accelerated stochastic simulations using the representative reaction approach.

    PubMed

    Kadam, Shantanu; Vanka, Kumar

    2013-02-15

    Methods based on the stochastic formulation of chemical kinetics have the potential to accurately reproduce the dynamical behavior of various biochemical systems of interest. However, the computational expense makes them impractical for the study of real systems. Attempts to render these methods practical have led to the development of accelerated methods, where the reaction numbers are modeled by Poisson random numbers. However, for certain systems, such methods give rise to physically unrealistic negative numbers for species populations. The methods which make use of binomial variables, in place of Poisson random numbers, have since become popular, and have been partially successful in addressing this problem. In this manuscript, the development of two new computational methods, based on the representative reaction approach (RRA), has been discussed. The new methods endeavor to solve the problem of negative numbers, by making use of tools like the stochastic simulation algorithm and the binomial method, in conjunction with the RRA. It is found that these newly developed methods perform better than other binomial methods used for stochastic simulations, in resolving the problem of negative populations.

  2. Predator-prey model for the self-organization of stochastic oscillators in dual populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradi, Sara; Anderson, Johan; Gürcan, Ozgur D.

    A predator-prey model of dual populations with stochastic oscillators is presented. A linear cross-coupling between the two populations is introduced that follows the coupling between the motions of a Wilberforce pendulum in two dimensions: one in the longitudinal and the other in torsional plain. Within each population a Kuramoto type competition between the phases is assumed. Thus, the synchronization state of the whole system is controlled by these two types of competitions. The results of the numerical simulations show that by adding the linear cross-coupling interactions predator-prey oscillations between the two populations appear which results in self-regulation of the system by a transfer of synchrony between the two populations. The model represents several important features of the dynamical interplay between the drift wave and zonal flow turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas, and a novel interpretation of the coupled dynamics of drift wave-zonal flow turbulence using synchronization of stochastic oscillator is discussed. Sara Moradi has benefited from a mobility grant funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy Office and the MSCA of the European Commission (FP7-PEOPLE-COFUND-2008 nº 246540).

  3. Robotics for Long-Term Monitoring

    SciTech Connect

    Shahin, Sarkis; Duran, Celso

    2002-07-01

    While long-term monitoring and stewardship means many things to many people, DOE has defined it as The physical controls, institutions, information, and other mechanisms needed to ensure protection of people and the environment at sites where DOE has completed or plans to complete cleanup (e.g., landfill closures, remedial actions, and facility stabilization). Across the United States, there are thousands of contaminated sites with multiple contaminants released from multiple sources where contaminants have transported and commingled. The U.S. government and U.S. industry are responsible for most of the contamination and are landowners of many of these contaminated properties. These sites must be surveyed periodically for various criteria including structural deterioration, water intrusion, integrity of storage containers, atmospheric conditions, and hazardous substance release. The surveys, however, are intrusive, time-consuming, and expensive and expose survey personnel to radioactive contamination. In long-term monitoring, there's a need for an automated system that will gather and report data from sensors without costly human labor. In most cases, a SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) unit is used to collect and report data from a remote location. A SCADA unit consists of an embedded computer with data acquisition capabilities. The unit can be configured with various sensors placed in different areas of the site to be monitored. A system of this type is static, i.e., the sensors, once placed, cannot be moved to other locations within the site. For those applications where the number of sampling locations would require too many sensors, or where exact location of future problems is unknown, a mobile sensing platform is an ideal solution. In many facilities that undergo regular inspections, the number of video cameras and air monitors required to eliminate the need for human inspections is very large and far too costly. HCET's remote harsh

  4. Long-term Changes in Tropospheric Ozone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oltmans, S.; Lefohn, A.; Galbally, I.; Scheel, E.; Bodeker, G.; Brunke, E.; Claude, H.; Tarasick, D.; Simmonds, P.; Anlauf, K.; Schmidlin, F.; Akagi, K.; Redondas, A.

    2006-05-01

    Tropospheric ozone measurements from a selected network of surface and ozonesonde sites are used to give a broad geographic picture of long-term variations. The picture of long-term tropospheric ozone changes is a varied one in terms of both the sign and magnitude of trends and in the possible causes for the changes. At mid latitudes of the S.H. three time series of ~20 years in length agree in showing increases that are strongest in the austral spring (August-October). Profile measurements show this increase extending through the mid troposphere but not into the highest levels of the troposphere. In the N.H. in the Arctic a period of declining ozone in the troposphere through the 1980s into the mid 1990s has reversed and the overall change is small. The decadal-scale variations in the troposphere in this region are related in part to changes in the lowermost stratosphere. At mid latitudes in the N.H., continental Europe and Japan showed significant increases in the 1970s and 1980s. Over North America rises in the 1970s are less than those seen in Europe and Japan, suggesting significant regional differences. In all three of these mid latitude, continental regions tropospheric ozone amounts appear to have leveled off or in some cases declined in the more recent decades. Over the North Atlantic three widely separated sites show significant increases since the late 1990s that may have peaked in recent years. In the N.H. tropics both the surface record and the ozonesondes in Hawaii show a significant increase in the autumn months in the most recent decade compared to earlier periods that drives the overall increase seen in the 30 year record. This appears to be related to a shift in the transport pattern during this season with more frequent flow from higher latitudes in the latest decade. The pattern of change, with the largest increases in the N.H. coming prior to the mid 1980s, suggests that increased positive radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone was felt

  5. LONG-TERM MONITORING SENSOR NETWORK

    SciTech Connect

    Stephen P. Farrington; John W. Haas; Neal Van Wyck

    2003-10-16

    Long-term monitoring (LTM) associated with subsurface contamination sites is a key element of Long Term Stewardship and Legacy Management across the Department of Energy (DOE) complex. However, both within the DOE and elsewhere, LTM is an expensive endeavor, often exceeding the costs of the remediation phase of a clean-up project. The primary contributors to LTM costs are associated with labor. Sample collection, storage, preparation, analysis, and reporting can add a significant financial burden to project expense when extended over many years. Development of unattended, in situ monitoring networks capable of providing quantitative data satisfactory to regulatory concerns has the potential to significantly reduce LTM costs. But survival and dependable operation in a difficult environment is a common obstacle to widespread use across the DOE complex or elsewhere. Deploying almost any sensor in the subsurface for extended periods of time will expose it to chemical and microbial degradation. Over the time-scales required for in situ LTM, even the most advanced sensor systems may be rendered useless. Frequent replacement or servicing (cleaning) of sensors is expensive and labor intensive, offsetting most, if not all, of the cost savings realized with unattended, in situ sensors. To enable facile, remote monitoring of contaminants and other subsurface parameters over prolonged periods, Applied Research Associates, Inc has been working to develop an advanced LTM sensor network consisting of three key elements: (1) an anti-fouling sensor chamber that can accommodate a variety of chemical and physical measurement devices based on electrochemical, optical and other techniques; (2) two rapid, cost effective, and gentle means of emplacing sensor packages either at precise locations directly in the subsurface or in pre-existing monitoring wells; and (3) a web browser-based data acquisition and control system (WebDACS) utilizing field-networked microprocessor-controlled smart

  6. Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

    2010-01-01

    We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more

  7. More efficient optimization of long-term water supply portfolios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirsch, Brian R.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Dillard, Karen E. M.; Kelley, C. T.

    2009-03-01

    The use of temporary transfers, such as options and leases, has grown as utilities attempt to meet increases in demand while reducing dependence on the expansion of costly infrastructure capacity (e.g., reservoirs). Earlier work has been done to construct optimal portfolios comprising firm capacity and transfers, using decision rules that determine the timing and volume of transfers. However, such work has only focused on the short-term (e.g., 1-year scenarios), which limits the utility of these planning efforts. Developing multiyear portfolios can lead to the exploration of a wider range of alternatives but also increases the computational burden. This work utilizes a coupled hydrologic-economic model to simulate the long-term performance of a city's water supply portfolio. This stochastic model is linked with an optimization search algorithm that is designed to handle the high-frequency, low-amplitude noise inherent in many simulations, particularly those involving expected values. This noise is detrimental to the accuracy and precision of the optimized solution and has traditionally been controlled by investing greater computational effort in the simulation. However, the increased computational effort can be substantial. This work describes the integration of a variance reduction technique (control variate method) within the simulation/optimization as a means of more efficiently identifying minimum cost portfolios. Random variation in model output (i.e., noise) is moderated using knowledge of random variations in stochastic input variables (e.g., reservoir inflows, demand), thereby reducing the computing time by 50% or more. Using these efficiency gains, water supply portfolios are evaluated over a 10-year period in order to assess their ability to reduce costs and adapt to demand growth, while still meeting reliability goals. As a part of the evaluation, several multiyear option contract structures are explored and compared.

  8. Cognitive Performance in Long-Term Abstinent Elderly Alcoholics

    PubMed Central

    Fein, George; McGillivray, Shannon

    2010-01-01

    Background To date, there is a wealth of literature describing the deleterious effects of active alcoholism on cognitive function. There has also been, more recently, a growing body of literature investigating the extent of cognitive recovery that can or may occur with abstinence. However, there is still a dearth of published findings on cognitive functioning in very long-term abstinence alcoholics, especially in the elderly population. Methods The current study examines 91 elderly abstinent alcoholics (EAA) (49 men and 42 women) with an average age of 6