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Sample records for long-term stochastic population

  1. Stochastic Induction of Long-Term Potentiation and Long-Term Depression

    PubMed Central

    Antunes, G.; Roque, A. C.; Simoes-de-Souza, F. M.

    2016-01-01

    Long-term depression (LTD) and long-term potentiation (LTP) of granule-Purkinje cell synapses are persistent synaptic alterations induced by high and low rises of the intracellular calcium ion concentration ([Ca2+]), respectively. The occurrence of LTD involves the activation of a positive feedback loop formed by protein kinase C, phospholipase A2, and the extracellular signal-regulated protein kinase pathway, and its expression comprises the reduction of the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Recently, a stochastic computational model of these signalling processes demonstrated that, in single synapses, LTD is probabilistic and bistable. Here, we expanded this model to simulate LTP, which requires protein phosphatases and the increase in the population of synaptic AMPA receptors. Our results indicated that, in single synapses, while LTD is bistable, LTP is gradual. Ca2+ induced both processes stochastically. The magnitudes of the Ca2+ signals and the states of the signalling network regulated the likelihood of LTP and LTD and defined dynamic macroscopic Ca2+ thresholds for the synaptic modifications in populations of synapses according to an inverse Bienenstock, Cooper and Munro (BCM) rule or a sigmoidal function. In conclusion, our model presents a unifying mechanism that explains the macroscopic properties of LTP and LTD from their dynamics in single synapses. PMID:27485552

  2. Long-term demographic analysis in goshawk Accipiter gentilis: the role of density dependence and stochasticity.

    PubMed

    Krüger, Oliver

    2007-06-01

    Density dependence and environmental stochasticity are both potentially important processes influencing population demography and long-term population growth. Quantifying the importance of these two processes for population growth requires both long-term population as well as individual-based data. I use a 30-year data set on a goshawk Accipiter gentilis population from Eastern Westphalia, Germany, to describe the key vital rate elements to which the growth rate is most sensitive and test how environmental stochasticity and density dependence affect long-term population growth. The asymptotic growth rate of the fully age-structured mean matrix model was very similar to the observed one (0.7% vs. 0.3% per annum), and population growth was most elastic to changes in survival rate at age classes 1-3. Environmental stochasticity led only to a small change in the projected population growth rate (between -0.16% and 0.67%) and did not change the elasticities qualitatively, suggesting that the goshawk life history of early reproduction coupled with high annual fertility buffers against a variable environment. Age classes most crucial to population growth were those in which density dependence seemed to act most strongly. This emphasises the importance of density dependence as a regulatory mechanism in this goshawk population. It also provides a mechanism that might enable the population to recover from population lows, because a mean matrix model incorporating observed functional responses of both vital rates to population density coupled with environmental stochasticity reduced long-term extinction risk of 30% under density-independent environmental stochasticity and 60% under demographic stochasticity to zero.

  3. Long-term dynamics of Typha populations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grace, J.B.; Wetzel, R.G.

    1998-01-01

    The zonation of Typha populations in an experimental pond in Michigan was re-examined 15 years after the original sampling to gain insight into the long-term dynamics. Current distributions of Typha populations were also examined in additional experimental ponds at the site that have been maintained for 23 years. The zonation between T. latifolia and T. angustifolia in the previously studied pond 15 years after the initial sampling revealed that the density and distribution of shoots had not changed significantly. Thus, it appears that previously reported results (based on 7- year old populations) have remained consistent over time. Additional insight into the interaction between these two taxa was sought by comparing mixed and monoculture stands in five experimental ponds that have remained undisturbed for their 23-year history. The maximum depth of T. latifolia, the shallow- water species, was not significantly reduced when growing in the presence of the more flood tolerant T. angustifolia. In contrast, the minimum depth of T. angustifolia was reduced from 0 to 37 cm when in the presence of T. latifolia. When total populations were compared between monoculture and mixed stands, the average density of T. angustifolia shoots was 59.4 percent lower in mixed stands while the density of T. latifolia was 32 percent lower, with T. angustifolia most affected at shallow depths (reduced by 92 percent) and T. latifolia most affected at the deepest depths (reduced by 60 percent). These long-term observations indicate that competitive displacement between Typha taxa has remained stable over time.

  4. Stochastic long-term hydrothermal optimization for a multireservoir system

    SciTech Connect

    Sherkat, V.R.; Campo, R.; Lo, E.O.; Moslehi, K.

    1985-08-01

    The problem of planning the long-term (multiyear) operation of a multireservoir hydrothermal electric power generation system is solved by a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithm using successive approximations. The hydro system model consists of a set of disjoint hydro chains each modeled by an equivalent reservoir and hydroplant. The inflow to the equivalent reservoir in each hydro chain is modeled as an independent log-normal random variable with a time correlation of lag one. The remaining river inflows in the system are modeled as a function of the equivalent reservoir inflows. Thermal unit and load curtailment cost curves are modeled as piecewise linear and convex. The successive approximations algorithm involves the solution of a 2-state stochastic dynamic programming problem for each hydro chain which has as its objective the minimization of the expected discounted production cost, plus the terminal hydro cost, subject to satisfying a number of constraints on the hydro and thermal system and the monthly demand which is represented by a load duration curve. A production-grade computer program has been developed and tested with data for a real system. Numerical results are reported for two study cases with up to eight reservoirs.

  5. A stochastic signaling network mediates the probabilistic induction of cerebellar long-term depression.

    PubMed

    Antunes, Gabriela; De Schutter, Erik

    2012-07-04

    Many cellular processes involve a small number of molecules and undergo stochastic fluctuations in their levels of activity. Cerebellar long-term depression (LTD) is a form of synaptic plasticity expressed as a reduction in the number of synaptic AMPA receptors (AMPARs) in Purkinje cells. We developed a stochastic model of the LTD signaling network, including a PKC-ERK-cPLA(2) positive feedback loop and mechanisms of AMPAR trafficking, and tuned the model to replicate calcium uncaging experiments. The signaling network activity in single synapses switches between two discrete stable states (LTD and non-LTD) in a probabilistic manner. The stochasticity of the signaling network causes threshold dithering and allows at the macroscopic level for many different and stable mean magnitudes of depression. The probability of LTD occurrence in a single spine is only modulated by the concentration and duration of the signal used to trigger it, and inputs with the same magnitude can give rise to two different responses; there is no threshold for the input signal. The stochasticity is intrinsic to the signaling network and not mostly dependent on noise in the calcium input signal, as has been suggested previously. The activities of the ultrasensitive ERK and of cPLA(2) undergo strong stochastic fluctuations. Conversely, PKC, which acts as a noise filter, is more constantly activated. Systematic variation of the biochemical population size demonstrates that threshold dithering and the absence of spontaneous LTD depend critically on the number of molecules in a spine, indicating constraints on spine size in Purkinje cells.

  6. Predicting patterns of long-term adaptation and extinction with population genetics.

    PubMed

    Bertram, J; Gomez, K; Masel, J

    2017-02-01

    Population genetics struggles to model extinction; standard models track the relative rather than absolute fitness of genotypes, while the exceptions describe only the short-term transition from imminent doom to evolutionary rescue. But extinction can result from failure to adapt not only to catastrophes, but also to a backlog of environmental challenges. We model long-term adaptation to long series of small challenges, where fitter populations reach higher population sizes. The population's long-term fitness dynamic is well approximated by a simple stochastic Markov chain model. Long-term persistence occurs when the rate of adaptation exceeds the rate of environmental deterioration for some genotypes. Long-term persistence times are consistent with typical fossil species persistence times of several million years. Immediately preceding extinction, fitness declines rapidly, appearing as though a catastrophe disrupted a stably established population, even though gradual evolutionary processes are responsible. New populations go through an establishment phase where, despite being demographically viable, their extinction risk is elevated. Should the population survive long enough, extinction risk later becomes constant over time. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. A Scalable Computational Framework for Establishing Long-Term Behavior of Stochastic Reaction Networks

    PubMed Central

    Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-01-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed. PMID:24968191

  8. A scalable computational framework for establishing long-term behavior of stochastic reaction networks.

    PubMed

    Gupta, Ankit; Briat, Corentin; Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-06-01

    Reaction networks are systems in which the populations of a finite number of species evolve through predefined interactions. Such networks are found as modeling tools in many biological disciplines such as biochemistry, ecology, epidemiology, immunology, systems biology and synthetic biology. It is now well-established that, for small population sizes, stochastic models for biochemical reaction networks are necessary to capture randomness in the interactions. The tools for analyzing such models, however, still lag far behind their deterministic counterparts. In this paper, we bridge this gap by developing a constructive framework for examining the long-term behavior and stability properties of the reaction dynamics in a stochastic setting. In particular, we address the problems of determining ergodicity of the reaction dynamics, which is analogous to having a globally attracting fixed point for deterministic dynamics. We also examine when the statistical moments of the underlying process remain bounded with time and when they converge to their steady state values. The framework we develop relies on a blend of ideas from probability theory, linear algebra and optimization theory. We demonstrate that the stability properties of a wide class of biological networks can be assessed from our sufficient theoretical conditions that can be recast as efficient and scalable linear programs, well-known for their tractability. It is notably shown that the computational complexity is often linear in the number of species. We illustrate the validity, the efficiency and the wide applicability of our results on several reaction networks arising in biochemistry, systems biology, epidemiology and ecology. The biological implications of the results as well as an example of a non-ergodic biological network are also discussed.

  9. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    DOE PAGES

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; ...

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curvesmore » predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.« less

  10. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    SciTech Connect

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-27

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. As a result, this indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  11. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    PubMed Central

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-01-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance. PMID:27117858

  12. 3D printed cellular solid outperforms traditional stochastic foam in long-term mechanical response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiti, A.; Small, W.; Lewicki, J. P.; Weisgraber, T. H.; Duoss, E. B.; Chinn, S. C.; Pearson, M. A.; Spadaccini, C. M.; Maxwell, R. S.; Wilson, T. S.

    2016-04-01

    3D printing of polymeric foams by direct-ink-write is a recent technological breakthrough that enables the creation of versatile compressible solids with programmable microstructure, customizable shapes, and tunable mechanical response including negative elastic modulus. However, in many applications the success of these 3D printed materials as a viable replacement for traditional stochastic foams critically depends on their mechanical performance and micro-architectural stability while deployed under long-term mechanical strain. To predict the long-term performance of the two types of foams we employed multi-year-long accelerated aging studies under compressive strain followed by a time-temperature-superposition analysis using a minimum-arc-length-based algorithm. The resulting master curves predict superior long-term performance of the 3D printed foam in terms of two different metrics, i.e., compression set and load retention. To gain deeper understanding, we imaged the microstructure of both foams using X-ray computed tomography, and performed finite-element analysis of the mechanical response within these microstructures. This indicates a wider stress variation in the stochastic foam with points of more extreme local stress as compared to the 3D printed material, which might explain the latter’s improved long-term stability and mechanical performance.

  13. Sensitivity of train stochastic dynamics to long-term evolution of track irregularities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lestoille, N.; Soize, C.; Funfschilling, C.

    2016-05-01

    The influence of the track geometry on the dynamic response of the train is of great concern for the railway companies, because they have to guarantee the safety of the train passengers in ensuring the stability of the train. In this paper, the long-term evolution of the dynamic response of the train on a stretch of the railway track is studied with respect to the long-term evolution of the track geometry. The characterisation of the long-term evolution of the train response allows the railway companies to start off maintenance operations of the track at the best moment. The study is performed using measurements of the track geometry, which are carried out very regularly by a measuring train. A stochastic model of the studied stretch of track is created in order to take into account the measurement uncertainties in the track geometry. The dynamic response of the train is simulated with a multibody software. A noise is added in output of the simulation to consider the uncertainties in the computational model of the train dynamics. Indicators on the dynamic response of the train are defined, allowing to visualize the long-term evolution of the stability and the comfort of the train, when the track geometry deteriorates.

  14. Disturbance frequency and vertical distribution of seeds affect long-term population dynamics: a mechanistic seed bank model.

    PubMed

    Eager, Eric Alan; Haridas, Chirakkal V; Pilson, Diana; Rebarber, Richard; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2013-08-01

    Seed banks are critically important for disturbance specialist plants because seeds of these species germinate only in disturbed soil. Disturbance and seed depth affect the survival and germination probability of seeds in the seed bank, which in turn affect population dynamics. We develop a density-dependent stochastic integral projection model to evaluate the effect of stochastic soil disturbances on plant population dynamics with an emphasis on mimicking how disturbances vertically redistribute seeds within the seed bank. We perform a simulation analysis of the effect of the frequency and mean depth of disturbances on the population's quasi-extinction probability, as well as the long-term mean and variance of the total density of seeds in the seed bank. We show that increasing the frequency of disturbances increases the long-term viability of the population, but the relationship between the mean depth of disturbance and the long-term viability of the population are not necessarily monotonic for all parameter combinations. Specifically, an increase in the probability of disturbance increases the long-term viability of the total seed bank population. However, if the probability of disturbance is too low, a shallower mean depth of disturbance can increase long-term viability, a relationship that switches as the probability of disturbance increases. However, a shallow disturbance depth is beneficial only in scenarios with low survival in the seed bank.

  15. Recommendations for Long Term Care in an Elderly Medicaid Population.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Travis, Shirley S.; McAuley, William J.

    The State of Virginia has had a statewide nursing home preadmission screening program since 1977 and has made efforts to ensure appropriate placement of individuals in long term care settings. In a major effort to divert certain individuals from institutionalization, a personal care option has been provided. Using data from the Preadmission…

  16. Long-term survival after burns in a Swedish population.

    PubMed

    Pompermaier, Laura; Steinvall, Ingrid; Fredrikson, Mats; Thorfinn, Johan; Sjöberg, Folke

    2017-02-01

    As widely reported, the progress in burn care during recent decades has reduced the hospital mortality. The effect of the burns on long-term outcome has not received so much attention, and more study is indicated. The aim of this retrospective study was to investigate the long-time survival among patients who had been treated for burns. We studied 1487 patients who were discharged alive from the Linköping University Hospital Burn Centre during the period 1993 until the end of December 2012. We used Cox's regression analysis to study the effect of burns on long-term survival after adjustment for different factors. Age and a full-thickness burn were significantly associated with mortality after discharge (p<0.001), whereas percentage of total body surface area burned (TBSA %), need for mechanical ventilation, and gender were not. Less than 1% of the patients with burns (13/1487) died within 30 days of discharge and a total of 176/1487 (12%) died during follow-up. Age and full-thickness burns reduce the long-time survival after discharge from the Burn Centre, whereas the effect of TBSA% and need for artificial ventilation ends with discharge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  17. Long-term population cycles in human societies.

    PubMed

    Turchin, Peter

    2009-04-01

    Human population dynamics are usually conceptualized as either boundless growth or growth to an equilibrium. The implicit assumption underlying these paradigms is that any feedback processes regulating population density, if they exist, operate on a fast-time-scale, and therefore we do not expect to observe population oscillations in human population numbers. This review asks, are population processes in historical and prehistorical human populations characterized by second-order feedback loops, that is, regulation involving lags? If yes, then the implications for forecasting future population change are obvious--what may appear as inexplicable, exogenously driven reverses in population trends may actually be a result of feedbacks operating with substantial time lags. This survey of a variety of historical and archeological data indicates that slow oscillations in population numbers, with periods of roughly two to three centuries, are observed in a number of world regions and historical periods. Next, a potential explanation for this pattern, the demographic-structural theory, is discussed. Finally, the implications of these results for global population forecasts is discussed.

  18. Are Changes in the Mean or Variability of Climate Signals More Important for Long-Term Stochastic Growth Rate?

    PubMed Central

    García-Carreras, Bernardo; Reuman, Daniel C.

    2013-01-01

    Population dynamics are affected by changes in both the mean and standard deviation of climate, e.g., changes in average temperature are likely to affect populations, but so are changes in the strength of year-to-year temperature variability. The impacts of increases in average temperature are extensively researched, while the impacts of changes in climate variability are less studied. Is the greater attention given to changes in mean environment justified? To help answer this question we developed a simple population model, explicitly linked to an environmental process. We used the model to compare the sensitivities of a population's long-term stochastic growth rate, a measure of fitness, to changes in the mean and standard deviation of the environment. Results are interpreted in light of a comparative analysis of the relative magnitudes of change in means and standard deviations of biologically relevant climate variables in the United States. Results show that changes in the variability of the environment can be more important for many populations. Changes in mean conditions are likely to have a greater impact than changes in variability on populations far from their ideal environment, for example, populations near species range boundaries and potentially of conservation concern. Populations near range centres and close to their ideal environment are more likely to be affected by changes in variability. Among pest and insect disease vectors, as well as species of commercial value, populations likely to be of greatest economic and public health significance are those near species range centers, living in a near-ideal environment for the species. Observed changes in the variability of climate variables may benefit these populations. PMID:23691131

  19. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters.

    PubMed

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-10-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time.

  20. Long-term projections of national, regional, and state population

    SciTech Connect

    McDonald, J.F.; South, D.W.

    1986-07-01

    The projections prepared by the US Bureau of the Census are the best available projections of total US population. The DRI projections of population at the regional and state level to the year 2008 are the best available and are consistent with the US Bureau of the Census projections of total US population. The DRI regional and state projections can be extended from 2008 to 2030 with a simple model based on economic opportunity, although an even simpler model - constant shares - is used for the 1985 test runs. The US Bureau of the Census prepares the best available projections of the US age-sex distribution.

  1. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-30

    Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study Daniel P. Costa University of California, Santa Cruz 100 Shaffer Rd. Santa Cruz, CA...grant has allowed us to extend and improve a four-decade study of northern elephant seal populations in California, aiming specifically to quantify...in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e

  2. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  3. Deterministic processes guide long-term synchronised population dynamics in replicate anaerobic digesters

    PubMed Central

    Vanwonterghem, Inka; Jensen, Paul D; Dennis, Paul G; Hugenholtz, Philip; Rabaey, Korneel; Tyson, Gene W

    2014-01-01

    A replicate long-term experiment was conducted using anaerobic digestion (AD) as a model process to determine the relative role of niche and neutral theory on microbial community assembly, and to link community dynamics to system performance. AD is performed by a complex network of microorganisms and process stability relies entirely on the synergistic interactions between populations belonging to different functional guilds. In this study, three independent replicate anaerobic digesters were seeded with the same diverse inoculum, supplied with a model substrate, α-cellulose, and operated for 362 days at a 10-day hydraulic residence time under mesophilic conditions. Selective pressure imposed by the operational conditions and model substrate caused large reproducible changes in community composition including an overall decrease in richness in the first month of operation, followed by synchronised population dynamics that correlated with changes in reactor performance. This included the synchronised emergence and decline of distinct Ruminococcus phylotypes at day 148, and emergence of a Clostridium and Methanosaeta phylotype at day 178, when performance became stable in all reactors. These data suggest that many dynamic functional niches are predictably filled by phylogenetically coherent populations over long time scales. Neutral theory would predict that a complex community with a high degree of recognised functional redundancy would lead to stochastic changes in populations and community divergence over time. We conclude that deterministic processes may play a larger role in microbial community dynamics than currently appreciated, and under controlled conditions it may be possible to reliably predict community structural and functional changes over time. PMID:24739627

  4. Long-term effective population size dynamics of an intensively monitored vertebrate population

    PubMed Central

    Mueller, A-K; Chakarov, N; Krüger, O; Hoffman, J I

    2016-01-01

    Long-term genetic data from intensively monitored natural populations are important for understanding how effective population sizes (Ne) can vary over time. We therefore genotyped 1622 common buzzard (Buteo buteo) chicks sampled over 12 consecutive years (2002–2013 inclusive) at 15 microsatellite loci. This data set allowed us to both compare single-sample with temporal approaches and explore temporal patterns in the effective number of parents that produced each cohort in relation to the observed population dynamics. We found reasonable consistency between linkage disequilibrium-based single-sample and temporal estimators, particularly during the latter half of the study, but no clear relationship between annual Ne estimates () and census sizes. We also documented a 14-fold increase in between 2008 and 2011, a period during which the census size doubled, probably reflecting a combination of higher adult survival and immigration from further afield. Our study thus reveals appreciable temporal heterogeneity in the effective population size of a natural vertebrate population, confirms the need for long-term studies and cautions against drawing conclusions from a single sample. PMID:27553455

  5. Comparative study of different stochastic weather generators for long-term climate data simulation

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Climate is one of the single most important factors affecting watershed ecosystems and water resources. The effect of climate variability and change has been studied extensively in some places; in many places, however, assessments are hampered by limited availability of long term continuous climate ...

  6. Analysis of Quantitative Traits in Two Long-Term Randomly Mated Soybean Populations I. Genetic Variances

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations: RSII and RSIII. Population means, variances, and heritabilities were estimated to determine the effects of 26 generations of random...

  7. Genetic and phenotypic correlations of quantitative traits in two long-term randomly mated soybean populations

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The genetic effects of long term random mating and natural selection aided by genetic male sterility (gms) were evaluated in two soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] populations designated: RSII and RSIII. These populations were evaluated in the field at three locations each with two replications. Genot...

  8. Gauging the Purported Costs of Public Data Archiving for Long-Term Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Simon Robin

    2016-01-01

    It was recently proposed that long-term population studies be exempted from the expectation that authors publicly archive the primary data underlying published articles. Such studies are valuable to many areas of ecological and evolutionary biological research, and multiple risks to their viability were anticipated as a result of public data archiving (PDA), ultimately all stemming from independent reuse of archived data. However, empirical assessment was missing, making it difficult to determine whether such fears are realistic. I addressed this by surveying data packages from long-term population studies archived in the Dryad Digital Repository. I found no evidence that PDA results in reuse of data by independent parties, suggesting the purported costs of PDA for long-term population studies have been overstated. PMID:27058254

  9. Long-term prescribing of antidepressants in the older population: a qualitative study

    PubMed Central

    Dickinson, Rebecca; Knapp, Peter; House, Allan O; Dimri, Vandana; Zermansky, Arnold; Petty, Duncan; Holmes, John; Raynor, David K

    2010-01-01

    Background High rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing have been identified in the older population. Aims To explore the attitudes of older patients and their GPs to taking long-term antidepressant therapy, and their accounts of the influences on long-term antidepressant use. Design of study Qualitative study using in-depth semi-structured interviews. Setting One primary care trust in North Bradford. Method Thirty-six patients aged ≥75 years and 10 GPs were interviewed. Patients were sampled to ensure diversity in age, sex, antidepressant type, and home circumstances. Results Participants perceived significant benefits and expressed little apprehension about taking long-term antidepressants, despite being aware of the psychological and social factors involved in onset and persistence of depression. Barriers to discontinuation were identified following four themes: pessimism about the course and curability of depression; negative expectations and experiences of ageing; medicine discontinuation perceived by patients as a threat to stability; and passive (therapeutic momentum) and active (therapeutic maintenance) decisions to accept the continuing need for medication. Conclusion There is concern at a public health level about high rates of long-term antidepressant prescribing, but no evidence was found of a drive for change either from the patients or the doctors interviewed. Any apprehension was more than balanced by attitudes and behaviours supporting continuation. These findings will need to be incorporated into the planning of interventions aimed at reducing long-term antidepressant prescribing in older people. PMID:20353660

  10. Long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia): survey methods, data management, and long-term population trends

    PubMed Central

    Ojanen, Sami P; Nieminen, Marko; Meyke, Evgeniy; Pöyry, Juha; Hanski, Ilkka

    2013-01-01

    Long-term observational studies conducted at large (regional) spatial scales contribute to better understanding of landscape effects on population and evolutionary dynamics, including the conditions that affect long-term viability of species, but large-scale studies are expensive and logistically challenging to keep running for a long time. Here, we describe the long-term metapopulation study of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) that has been conducted since 1991 in a large network of 4000 habitat patches (dry meadows) within a study area of 50 by 70 km in the Åland Islands in Finland. We explain how the landscape structure has been described, including definition, delimitation, and mapping of the habitat patches; methods of field survey, including the logistics, cost, and reliability of the survey; and data management using the EarthCape biodiversity platform. We describe the long-term metapopulation dynamics of the Glanville fritillary based on the survey. There has been no long-term change in the overall size of the metapopulation, but the level of spatial synchrony and hence the amplitude of fluctuations in year-to-year metapopulation dynamics have increased over the years, possibly due to increasing frequency of exceptional weather conditions. We discuss the added value of large-scale and long-term population studies, but also emphasize the need to integrate more targeted experimental studies in the context of long-term observational studies. For instance, in the case of the Glanville fritillary project, the long-term study has produced an opportunity to sample individuals for experiments from local populations with a known demographic history. These studies have demonstrated striking differences in dispersal rate and other life-history traits of individuals from newly established local populations (the offspring of colonizers) versus individuals from old, established local populations. The long-term observational study has stimulated the

  11. Development of a Compound Distribution Markov Chain Model for Stochastic Generation of Rainfall with Long Term Persistence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George

    2015-04-01

    One of the overriding issues in the rainfall simulation is the underestimation of observed rainfall variability in longer timescales (e.g. monthly, annual and multi-year), which usually results into under-estimation of reservoir reliability in urban water planning. This study has developed a Compound Distribution Markov Chain (CDMC) model for stochastic generation of daily rainfall. We used two parameters of Markov Chain process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) for simulating rainfall occurrence and two parameters of gamma distribution (calculated from mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall) for simulating wet-day rainfall amounts. While two models with deterministic parameters underestimated long term variability, our investigation found that the long term variability of rainfall in the model is predominantly governed by the long term variability of gamma parameters, rather than the variability of Markov Chain parameters. Therefore, in the third approach, we developed the CDMC model with deterministic parameters of Markov Chain process, but stochastic parameters of gamma distribution by sampling the mean and standard deviation of wet-day rainfall from their log-normal and bivariate-normal distribution. We have found that the CDMC is able to replicate both short term and long term rainfall variability, when we calibrated the model at two sites in east coast of Australia using three types of daily rainfall data - (1) dynamically downscaled, 10 km resolution gridded data produced by NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling project, (2) 5 km resolution gridded data by Australian Water Availability Project and (3) point scale raingauge stations data by Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. We also examined the spatial variability of parameters and their link with local orography at our field site. The suitability of the model in runoff generation and urban reservoir-water simulation will be discussed.

  12. Long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults: a population-based analysis

    PubMed Central

    Weymann, Deirdre; Gladstone, Emilie J.; Smolina, Kate; Morgan, Steven G.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Chronic use of benzodiazepines and benzodiazepine-like sedatives (z-drugs) presents substantial risks to people of all ages. We sought to assess trends in long-term sedative use among community-dwelling adults in British Columbia. Methods: Using population-based linked administrative databases, we examined longitudinal trends in age-standardized rates of sedative use among different age groups of community-dwelling adults (age ≥ 18 yr), from 2004 to 2013. For each calendar year, we classified adults as nonusers, short-term users, or long-term users of sedatives based on their patterns of sedative dispensation. For calendar year 2013, we applied cross-sectional analysis and estimated logistic regression models to identify health and socioeconomic risk factors associated with long-term sedative use. Results: More than half (53.4%) of long-term users of sedatives in British Columbia are between ages 18 and 64 years (young and middle-aged adults). From 2004 to 2013, long-term sedative use remained stable among adults more than 65 years of age (older adults) and increased slightly among young and middle-aged adults. Although the use of benzodiazepines decreased during the study period, the trend was offset by equal or greater increases in long-term use of z-drugs. Being an older adult, sick, poor and single were associated with increased odds of long-term sedative use. Interpretation: Despite efforts to stem such patterns of medication use, long-term use of sedatives increased in British Columbia between 2004 and 2013. This increase was driven largely by increased use among middle-aged adults. Future deprescribing efforts that target adults of all ages may help curb this trend. PMID:28401119

  13. Long-Term Monitoring of Bacteria Undergoing Programmed Population Control in a Microchemostat

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balagaddé, Frederick K.; You, Lingchong; Hansen, Carl L.; Arnold, Frances H.; Quake, Stephen R.

    2005-07-01

    Using an active approach to preventing biofilm formation, we implemented a microfluidic bioreactor that enables long-term culture and monitoring of extremely small populations of bacteria with single-cell resolution. We used this device to observe the dynamics of Escherichia coli carrying a synthetic ``population control'' circuit that regulates cell density through a feedback mechanism based on quorum sensing. The microfluidic bioreactor enabled long-term monitoring of unnatural behavior programmed by the synthetic circuit, which included sustained oscillations in cell density and associated morphological changes, over hundreds of hours.

  14. Long-term monitoring of bacteria undergoing programmed population control in a microchemostat.

    PubMed

    Balagaddé, Frederick K; You, Lingchong; Hansen, Carl L; Arnold, Frances H; Quake, Stephen R

    2005-07-01

    Using an active approach to preventing biofilm formation, we implemented a microfluidic bioreactor that enables long-term culture and monitoring of extremely small populations of bacteria with single-cell resolution. We used this device to observe the dynamics of Escherichia coli carrying a synthetic "population control" circuit that regulates cell density through a feedback mechanism based on quorum sensing. The microfluidic bioreactor enabled long-term monitoring of unnatural behavior programmed by the synthetic circuit, which included sustained oscillations in cell density and associated morphological changes, over hundreds of hours.

  15. Collembola population levels 7 years after installation of the North Carolina long term soil productivity study

    Treesearch

    Robert J. Eaton

    2006-01-01

    Collembola are among the most abundant microarthropods in terrestrial ecosystems and have been shown to affect litter decomposition and nutrient release rates. Previous work 0-n the Croatan National Forest Long Term Soil Productivity (LTSP) study indicated organic matter removal and vegetation control treatments affected collembolan populations. The present study...

  16. Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

    2001-01-01

    We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

  17. Long-term benefits of full-day kindergarten: a longitudinal population-based study.

    PubMed

    Brownell, M D; Nickel, N C; Chateau, D; Martens, P J; Taylor, C; Crockett, L; Katz, A; Sarkar, J; Burland, E; Goh, C Y

    2015-02-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were compared between FDK and half-day kindergarten (HDK) students in both targeted and universal FDK programmes. Propensity score matched cohort and stepped-wedge designs allowed for stronger causal inferences than previous research on FDK. We found limited long-term benefits of FDK, specific to the type of programme, outcomes examined, and subpopulations. FDK programmes targeted at low-income areas showed long-term improvements in numeracy for lower income girls. Our results suggest that expectations for wide-ranging long-term academic benefits of FDK are unwarranted.

  18. Insights into population ecology from long-term studies of red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Padilla, Jesus; Redpath, Steve M; Zeineddine, Mohammed; Mougeot, François

    2014-01-01

    Long-term studies have been the backbone of population ecology. The red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus is one species that has contributed widely to this field since the 1950s. This paper reviews the trajectory and profound impact that these studies have had. Red grouse research has combined long-term studies of marked individuals with demographic studies over wide geographical areas and replicated individual- and population-level manipulations. A main focus has been on understanding the causes of population cycles in red grouse, and in particular the relative importance of intrinsic (behaviour) and extrinsic (climate, food limitation and parasite) mechanisms. Separate studies conducted in different regions initially proposed either the nematode parasite Trichostrongylus tenuis or changes in male aggressiveness in autumn as drivers of population cycles. More recent experiments suggest that parasites are not a necessary cause for cycles and have highlighted that behavioural and parasite-mediated mechanisms are interrelated. Long-term experiments show that parasites and aggressiveness interact. Two outstanding questions remain to be tested experimentally. First, what intrinsic mechanism causes temporal variation in patterns of male aggressiveness? The current favoured mechanism is related to patterns of kin structuring although there are alternative hypotheses. Second, how do the dual, interacting mechanisms, affect population dynamics? Red grouse studies have had an important impact on the field of population ecology, in particular through highlighting: (1) the impact of parasites on populations; (2) the role of intrinsic mechanisms in cyclic dynamics and (3) the need to consider multiple, interacting mechanisms.

  19. A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stojković, Milan; Kostić, Srđan; Plavšić, Jasna; Prohaska, Stevan

    2017-01-01

    The authors present a detailed procedure for modelling of mean monthly flow time-series using records of the Great Morava River (Serbia). The proposed procedure overcomes a major challenge of other available methods by disaggregating the time series in order to capture the main properties of the hydrologic process in both long-run and short-run. The main assumption of the conducted research is that a time series of monthly flow rates represents a stochastic process comprised of deterministic, stochastic and random components, the former of which can be further decomposed into a composite trend and two periodic components (short-term or seasonal periodicity and long-term or multi-annual periodicity). In the present paper, the deterministic component of a monthly flow time-series is assessed by spectral analysis, whereas its stochastic component is modelled using cross-correlation transfer functions, artificial neural networks and polynomial regression. The results suggest that the deterministic component can be expressed solely as a function of time, whereas the stochastic component changes as a nonlinear function of climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). For the calibration period, the results of the analysis infers a lower value of Kling-Gupta Efficiency in the case of transfer functions (0.736), whereas artificial neural networks and polynomial regression suggest a significantly better match between the observed and simulated values, 0.841 and 0.891, respectively. It seems that transfer functions fail to capture high monthly flow rates, whereas the model based on polynomial regression reproduces high monthly flows much better because it is able to successfully capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the inputs and the output. The proposed methodology that uses a combination of artificial neural networks, spectral analysis and polynomial regression for deterministic and stochastic components can be applied to forecast monthly or seasonal flow rates.

  20. Integrating acute and long-term care for high-cost populations.

    PubMed

    Master, R J; Eng, C

    2001-01-01

    The inadequacies of our fragmented acute and long-term care financing and delivery systems have been well recognized for many years. Yet over the past two decades only a very small number of "boutique" initiatives have been able to improve the financing and the delivery of care to chronically ill and disabled populations. These initiatives share most of the following characteristics: prepaid, risk-adjusted financing; integrated Medicare and Medicaid funding streams; a flexible array of acute and long-term benefits; well-organized, redesigned care delivery systems that tailor these benefits to individual need; a mission-driven philosophy; and considerable creativity in engaging government payers. The experience of these "boutiques" illustrates both the obstacles to, and the opportunity for, meaningful, widespread care delivery reform for vulnerable chronically ill populations.

  1. Individual specialists in a generalist population: results from a long-term stable isotope series

    PubMed Central

    Vander Zanden, Hannah B.; Bjorndal, Karen A.; Reich, Kimberly J.; Bolten, Alan B.

    2010-01-01

    Individual variation in resource use has often been ignored in ecological studies, but closer examination of individual patterns through time may reveal significant intrapopulation differences. Adult loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) are generalist carnivores with a wide geographical range, resulting in a broad isotopic niche. We microsampled scute, a persistent and continuously growing tissue, to examine long-term variation in resource use (up to 12 years) in 15 nesting loggerhead turtles. Using stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon, we examined the resource use patterns (integration of diet, habitat and geographical location) and demonstrate that individual loggerheads are long-term specialists within a generalist population. We present our results in the context of a conceptual model comparing isotopic niches in specialist and generalist populations. Individual consistency may have important ecological, evolutionary and conservation consequences, such as the reduction of intraspecific competition. PMID:20335202

  2. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-30

    of transfer functions which describe how behavioral responses to sound affect life functions, how life functions are linked to vital population...Resource Sound Research Requirements, specifically within the “Response to Naval Sounds ” requirement #5: Determine biologically significant behavioral...responses from Navy sound sources on individuals representing marine mammal species of concern with respect to ... determining long-term effects of

  3. Isolated coastal populations of Tilia americana var. caroliniana persist long-term through vegetative growth.

    PubMed

    Evans, Jonathan P; Morris, Ashley B

    2016-09-01

    Sprouting in woody plant species allows for the long-term persistence of small, isolated populations experiencing changing environments and can preserve genetic diversity in these populations despite the infrequent recruitment of sexually produced individuals. We examined demographic data collected over a 10-yr period for Tilia americana var. caroliniana populations in the context of genetic structure as an empirical case study of this concept. Two back-barrier islands on the Georgia coast of the United States were completely censused for Tilia americana var. caroliniana. Recruitment, growth, and mortality of all stems were tracked over 10 yr. All genets were genotyped using eight nuclear microsatellite loci to assess population genetic structure among sampled stems and among populations in the region. The two island populations differed in their ability to establish seedlings despite having similar patterns in flowering frequency. Seedling mortality was high throughout the 10 yr, and cycling of ramets within genets was common. Long-term recruitment in this system appears to be primarily a result of vegetative growth via basal sprouts. Genetic structure was limited, both between islands and among populations in the region. Long-lived woody species that persist by vegetative reproduction may unexpectedly influence regional forest responses to climate change, particularly on the trailing edge of a species' distribution. © 2016 Evans and Morris. Published by the Botanical Society of America. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY-NC).

  4. Wheat archive links long-term fungal pathogen population dynamics to air pollution

    PubMed Central

    Bearchell, Sarah J.; Fraaije, Bart A.; Shaw, Michael W.; Fitt, Bruce D. L.

    2005-01-01

    We used the PCR to study the presence of two plant pathogens in archived wheat samples from a long-term experiment started in 1843. The data were used to construct a unique 160-yr time-series of the abundance of Phaeosphaeria nodorum and Mycosphaerella graminicola, two important pathogens of wheat. During the period since 1970, the relative abundance of DNA of these two pathogens in the samples has reflected the relative importance of the two wheat diseases they cause in U.K. disease surveys. Unexpectedly, changes in the ratio of the pathogens over the 160-yr period were very strongly correlated with changes in atmospheric pollution, as measured by SO2 emissions. This finding suggests that long-term, economically important, changes in pathogen populations can be influenced by anthropogenically induced environmental changes. PMID:15809418

  5. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  6. Long-term results of percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty in pulmonary valve stenosis in the pediatric population.

    PubMed

    Merino-Ingelmo, Raquel; Santos-de Soto, José; Coserria-Sánchez, Félix; Descalzo-Señoran, Alfonso; Valverde-Pérez, Israel

    2014-05-01

    Percutaneous pulmonary valvuloplasty is the preferred interventional procedure for pulmonary valve stenosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of this technique, assess the factors leading to its success, and determine the long-term results in the pediatric population. The study included 53 patients with pulmonary valve stenosis undergoing percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty between December 1985 and December 2000. Right ventricular size and functional echocardiographic parameters, such as pulmonary regurgitation and residual transvalvular gradient, were assessed during long-term follow-up. Peak-to-peak transvalvular gradient decreased from 74 mmHg [interquartile range, 65-100 mmHg] to 20 mmHg [interquartile range, 14-34 mmHg]. The procedure was unsuccessful in 2 patients (3.77%). The immediate success rate was 73.58%. Follow-up ranged from 10 years to 24 years (median, 15 years). During follow-up, all patients developed late pulmonary regurgitation which was assessed as grade II in 58.4% and grade III in 31.2%. There was only 1 case of long-term restenosis (2.1%). Severe right ventricular dilatation was observed in 27.1% of the patients. None of the patients developed significant right ventricular dysfunction. Pulmonary valve replacement was not required in any of the patients. Percutaneous balloon valvuloplasty is an effective technique in the treatment of pulmonary valve stenosis with good long-term results. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  7. Long-term disease dynamics in lakes: causes and consequences of chytrid infections in Daphnia populations.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Ives, Anthony R; Lathrop, Richard C; Carpenter, Stephen R

    2009-01-01

    Understanding the drivers and consequences of disease epidemics is an important frontier in ecology. However, long-term data on hosts, their parasites, and the corresponding environmental conditions necessary to explore these interactions are often unavailable. We examined the dynamics of Daphnia pulicaria, a keystone zooplankter in lake ecosystems, to explore the long-term causes and consequences of infection by a chytridiomycete parasitoid (Polycaryum laeve). After quantifying host-pathogen dynamics from vouchered samples collected over 15 years, we used autoregressive models to evaluate (1) hypothesized drivers of infection, including host density, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, host-food availability, and lake mixing; and (2) the effects of epidemics on host populations. Infection was present in most years but varied widely in prevalence, from < 1% to 34%, with seasonal peaks in early spring and late fall. Within years, lake stratification strongly inhibited P. laeve transmission, such that epidemics occurred primarily during periods of water mixing. Development of the thermocline likely reduced transmission by spatially separating susceptible hosts from infectious zoospores. Among years, ice duration and cumulative snowfall correlated negatively with infection prevalence, likely because of reductions in spring phytoplankton and D. pulicaria density in years with extended winters. Epidemics also influenced dynamics of the host population. Infected D. pulicaria rarely (< 1%) contained eggs, and P. laeve prevalence was positively correlated with sexual reproduction in D. pulicaria. Analyses of D. pulicaria density-dependent population dynamics predicted that, in the absence of P. laeve infection, host abundance would be 11-50% higher than what was observed. By underscoring the importance of complex physical processes in controlling host-parasite interactions and of epidemic disease in influencing host populations, our results highlight the value of long-term

  8. A guide for the analysis of long-term population growth in cancer.

    PubMed

    Silva, Andrew O; Felipe, Karina B; Villodre, Emilly S; Lopez, Patricia L C; Lenz, Guido

    2016-10-01

    Although cancer is a chronic disease, most of the in vitro experiments to assess the effectiveness of intervention are performed in hours or a few days. Moreover, none of the available methodologies to measure cell proliferation are adapted to provide information about the growth kinetic during and after treatment. Thus, the objective of this work is to provide a guide to assess long-term changes in cell population size to be used mainly in cancer research. Cumulative population doubling (CPD) graphs based on cell counting for in vitro or tumor volume for in vivo assays were used to calculate four parameters: relative end CPD (RendCPD), to quantify the end point analysis of proliferation; relative area under curve (rAUC), to describe the global chronic effect of a treatment; relative time to cross a threshold (RTCT), to indicate the delay in cell population recovery produced by a treatment; and relative proliferation rate (RPR), to describe the relative regrowth velocity of the cells that survived after treatment. These parameters describe not only the acute and chronic effects of a treatment but also the behavior of cells that are not eliminated by the treatment, providing crucial information about the growth kinetic of the surviving population. Moreover, the proposed analysis allowed the grouping of independent CPD experiments quantified at different time points and even the direct comparison of in vitro and in vivo experiments. Therefore, this new way to analyze long-term outcomes provides a global view of the effectiveness of an intervention, as an important tool for long-term studies.

  9. Inversion polymorphism in two Serbian natural populations of Drosophila subobscura: analysis of long-term changes.

    PubMed

    Zivanovic, G; Arenas, C; Mestres, F

    2014-06-01

    To study whether inversions (or arrangements) by themselves or karyotypes are the main global warming adaptive target of natural selection, two Drosophila subobscura Serbian populations (Apatin and Petnica) were re-analyzed using different statistical approaches. Both populations were sampled in an approximately 15 years period: Apatin in 1994 and 2008 + 2009 and Petnica in 1995 and 2010. For all chromosomes, the four collections studied were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Thus, it seems that inversions (or arrangements) combined at random to constitute populations' karyotypes. However, there were differences in karyotypic frequencies along the years, although they were significant only for Apatin population. It is possible to conclude that inversions (or arrangements) are likely the target of natural selection, because they presented long-term changes, but combine at random to generate the corresponding karyotypic combinations. As a consequence, the frequencies of karyotypes also change along time.

  10. Adaptation in a spider mite population after long-term evolution on a single host plant.

    PubMed

    Magalhães, S; Fayard, J; Janssen, A; Carbonell, D; Olivieri, I

    2007-09-01

    Evolution in a single environment is expected to erode genetic variability, thereby precluding adaptation to novel environments. To test this, a large population of spider mites kept on cucumber for approximately 300 generations was used to establish populations on novel host plants (tomato or pepper), and changes in traits associated to adaptation were measured after 15 generations. Using a half-sib design, we investigated whether trait changes were related to genetic variation in the base population. Juvenile survival and fecundity exhibited genetic variation and increased in experimental populations on novel hosts. Conversely, no variation was detected for host choice and developmental time and these traits did not evolve. Longevity remained unchanged on novel hosts despite the presence of genetic variation, suggesting weak selection for this trait. Hence, patterns of evolutionary changes generally matched those of genetic variation, and changes in some traits were not hindered by long-term evolution in a constant environment.

  11. Asymptomatic Cardiac Toxicity in Long-Term Cancer Survivors: Defining the Population and Recommendations for Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Carver, Joseph R.; Szalda, Dava; Ky, Bonnie

    2013-01-01

    Advances in the treatment of pediatric and adult cancer have reduced the mortality rates from these disorders and have led to an ever-increasing population of long-term survivors. Chemotherapy and radiotherapy may cause premature cardiac disease that may be asymptomatic or symptomatic. All patients exposed to chemotherapy with cardiotoxic potential or chest radiotherapy have stage A heart failure and the goal of surveillance and treatment is to prevent progression to stages B-D. Screening strategies, including the use of biomarkers, echocardiography, and expert opinion surveillance and treatment recommendations, are presented. PMID:23540748

  12. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    PubMed

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  13. Long-term population patterns of rodents and associated damage in German forestry.

    PubMed

    Imholt, Christian; Reil, Daniela; Plašil, Pavel; Rödiger, Kerstin; Jacob, Jens

    2017-02-01

    Several rodent species can damage forest trees, especially at young tree age in afforestation. Population outbreaks of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.) and bank voles (Myodes glareolus Schreber) in particular can cause losses. Analyses of long-term time series indicate good synchrony of population abundance in rodent species associated with damage in forestry. This synchrony could be related to the effect of beech (Fagus spec.) mast in the previous year on population growth rates of both species. In shorter time series from Eastern Germany, damage in forestry was mostly associated with autumn abundances of rodents. Environmental factors such as beech mast and snow cover did not explain additional variation in rodent damage to trees. Beech mast is a good indicator of long-term rodent abundance in Northern German afforestation areas. However, rodent damage to forestry in Central Germany did not seem to depend on environmental parameters other than rodent abundance at large scale. As a result, there is still uncertainty about the link between environmental predictors and rodent damage to forestry, and further experimental work is required to identify suitable environmental drivers and their interplay with other potential factors such as the local predator community. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Long-term costs and survival of prostate cancer: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Brodszky, Valentin; Varga, Péter; Gimesi-Országh, Judit; Fadgyas-Freyler, Petra; Boncz, Imre; Nyirády, Péter; Riesz, Péter; Baji, Petra; Péntek, Márta; Rencz, Fanni; Gulácsi, László

    2017-07-31

    There is a rising interest in measuring the societal burden of malignancies including prostate cancer. However, population-based studies reporting incidence costs of prostate cancer in the long term are lacking in Europe. The objectives of the study are to analyse the long-term costs and survival of prostate cancer patients treated by radical prostatectomy (RP) or conservative management (nRP). A retrospective claims data analysis of the National Health Insurance Found Administration of Hungary between 01.01.2002 and 31.10.2013 was carried out. Annual incidence costs related to prostate cancer and overall survival were calculated for a cohort of patients diagnosed between 2002 and 2005. Altogether 17,642 patients were selected; 2185 (12%) of them have undergone RP. The annual incidence rate ranged between 4177 and 4736 cases. Mean age of RP and nRP patients was 59.4 (SD 5.9) and 71.0 (8.4) years, respectively. The mean survival time of the RP patients was significantly longer compared to nRP patients both in the total sample (11.2 vs. 7.4 years; p < 0.001) and in the subgroup <70 years (11.3 vs. 8.8 years; p < 0.001). At the end of the 12-year follow-up, RP patients had a higher (0.83 vs. 0.68), while nRP patients had a slightly lower (0.35 vs. 38) probability of being alive compared with the age-matched general male population. The long-term cumulative costs of the RP and nRP patients amounted to €4448 and €8616. The main driver of the cost difference was the high drug costs in the nRP group. To our knowledge, this study applied the longest time-window in reporting population-based incidence costs in Europe. We found that not only RP patients lived longer but they had significantly lower total long-term costs than nRP patients. Therefore, radical prostatectomy is a cost-effective strategy in prostate cancer.

  15. The Effects of Landscape Modifications on the Long-Term Persistence of Animal Populations

    PubMed Central

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard M.; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Forbes, Valery E.; Topping, Christopher J.

    2010-01-01

    Background The effects of landscape modifications on the long-term persistence of wild animal populations is of crucial importance to wildlife managers and conservation biologists, but obtaining experimental evidence using real landscapes is usually impossible. To circumvent this problem we used individual-based models (IBMs) of interacting animals in experimental modifications of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of four species with contrasting life-history characteristics: skylark (Alauda arvensis), vole (Microtus agrestis), a ground beetle (Bembidion lampros) and a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra). This allows us to quantify the population implications of experimental modifications of landscape configuration and composition. Methodology/Principal Findings Starting with a real agricultural landscape, we progressively reduced landscape complexity by (i) homogenizing habitat patch shapes, (ii) randomizing the locations of the patches, and (iii) randomizing the size of the patches. The first two steps increased landscape fragmentation. We assessed the effects of these manipulations on the long-term persistence of animal populations by measuring equilibrium population sizes and time to recovery after disturbance. Patch rearrangement and the presence of corridors had a large effect on the population dynamics of species whose local success depends on the surrounding terrain. Landscape modifications that reduced population sizes increased recovery times in the short-dispersing species, making small populations vulnerable to increasing disturbance. The species that were most strongly affected by large disturbances fluctuated little in population sizes in years when no perturbations took place. Significance Traditional approaches to the management and conservation of populations use either classical methods of population analysis, which fail to adequately account for the spatial configurations of landscapes

  16. Temporal Population Genetics of Time Travelling Insects: A Long Term Study in a Seed-Specialized Wasp

    PubMed Central

    Lefèvre, François; Candau, Jean-Noël; Chalon, Alain; Boivin, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Many animal species experiencing spatial or interannual fluctuations of their environment are capable of prolonged diapause, a kind of dormancy that extends over more than one year. Such a prolonged diapause is commonly perceived as a temporal demographic refuge in stochastic environments, but empirical evidence is still lacking of its consequences on temporal population genetic structures. In this long-term study, we investigated how a particular pattern of prolonged diapause may influence the temporal population genetics of the invasive seed-specialized wasp Megastigmus schimitscheki (Hymenoptera: Torymidae) in southeastern France. We characterized the diapause strategy of M. schimitscheki using records of emergence from diapause in 97 larval cohorts, and we conducted a temporal population genetic study on a natural invasive wasp population sampled during ten consecutive years (1999–2008) using polymorphic microsatellite markers. We found that M. schimitscheki can undergo a prolonged diapause of up to five years and displays two main adult emergence peaks after two and four years of diapause. Such a bimodal and atypical pattern did not disrupt temporal gene flow between cohorts produced in even and in odd years during the period of the study. Unexpectedly, we found that this wasp population consisted of two distinct genetic sub-populations that strongly diverged in their diapause strategies, with very few admixed individuals. One of the sub-populations displayed both short and prolonged diapause (2 and 4 years respectively) in equal proportions, whereas the other sub-population displayed mainly short diapause. This study provided empirical evidence that prolonged diapause phenotypes can substantially contribute to reproduction and impact temporal genetic structures. Prolonged diapause is likely to act as both demographic and genetic refuges for insect populations living in fluctuating environments. PMID:23936470

  17. Modelling long-term ecotoxicological effects on an algal population under dynamic nutrient stress.

    PubMed

    Bontje, D; Kooi, B W; Liebig, M; Kooijman, S A L M

    2009-07-01

    We study the effects of toxicants on the functioning of phototrophic unicellular organism (an algae) in a simple aquatic microcosm by applying a parameter-sparse model. The model allows us to study the interaction between ecological and toxicological effects. Nutrient stress and toxicant stress, together or alone, can cause extinction of the algal population. The modelled algae consume dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) under surplus light and use it for growth and maintenance. Dead algal biomass is mineralized by bacterial activity, leading to nutrient recycling. The ecological model is coupled with a toxicity-module that describes the dependency of the algal growth and death rate on the toxicant concentration. Model parameter fitting is performed on experimental data from Liebig, M., Schmidt, G., Bontje, D., Kooi, B.W., Streck, G., Traunspurger, W., Knacker, T. [2008. Direct and indirect effects of pollutants on algae and algivorous ciliates in an aquatic indoor microcosm. Aquatic Toxicology 88, 102-110]. These experiments were especially designed to include nutrient limitation, nutrient recycling and long-term exposure to toxicants. The flagellate species Cryptomonas sp. was exposed to the herbicide prometryn and insecticide methyl parathion in semi-closed Erlenmeyers. Given the total limiting amount of nitrogen in the system, the estimated toxicant concentration at which a long-term steady population of algae goes extinct will be derived. We intend to use the results of this study to investigate the effects of ecological (environmental) and toxicological stresses on more realistic ecosystem structure and functioning.

  18. Introducing health gains in location-allocation models: A stochastic model for planning the delivery of long-term care

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso, T.; Oliveira, M. D.; Barbosa-Póvoa, A.; Nickel, S.

    2015-05-01

    Although the maximization of health is a key objective in health care systems, location-allocation literature has not yet considered this dimension. This study proposes a multi-objective stochastic mathematical programming approach to support the planning of a multi-service network of long-term care (LTC), both in terms of services location and capacity planning. This approach is based on a mixed integer linear programming model with two objectives - the maximization of expected health gains and the minimization of expected costs - with satisficing levels in several dimensions of equity - namely, equity of access, equity of utilization, socioeconomic equity and geographical equity - being imposed as constraints. The augmented ε-constraint method is used to explore the trade-off between these conflicting objectives, with uncertainty in the demand and delivery of care being accounted for. The model is applied to analyze the (re)organization of the LTC network currently operating in the Great Lisbon region in Portugal for the 2014-2016 period. Results show that extending the network of LTC is a cost-effective investment.

  19. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Steven N.; Ralph, Peter L.; Sen, Arnab

    2016-01-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZt = μZtdt + σ ZtdWt, t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Zt+Δt − Zt given Zt = z has mean and variance approximately zμΔt and z2σ2Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log Zt for such a population equals μ−σ22. Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model Xt=(Xt1,…,Xtn), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of Xt+Δt given Xt = x is such that the conditional mean of Xt+Δti−Xti is approximately [xiμi +∑j (xj Dji − xi Dij)]Δt where μi is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and Dij is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of Xt+Δti−Xti and Xt+Δtj−Xtj is approximately xixjσijΔt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σij). We show for such a spatially extended population that if St=Xt1+⋯+Xtn denotes the total population abundance, then Yt = Xt /St, the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y∞ as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate limt→∞ t−1 log St equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate ∑iμi𝔼[Y∞j] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation 𝔼[∑i,jσijY∞iY∞j] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the stochastic growth rate, we derive an explicit expression for the stochastic growth rate for populations living in two patches, determine which

  20. Stochastic population growth in spatially heterogeneous environments.

    PubMed

    Evans, Steven N; Ralph, Peter L; Schreiber, Sebastian J; Sen, Arnab

    2013-02-01

    Classical ecological theory predicts that environmental stochasticity increases extinction risk by reducing the average per-capita growth rate of populations. For sedentary populations in a spatially homogeneous yet temporally variable environment, a simple model of population growth is a stochastic differential equation dZ(t) = μZ(t)dt + σZ(t)dW(t), t ≥ 0, where the conditional law of Z(t+Δt)-Z(t) given Z(t) = z has mean and variance approximately z μΔt and z²σ²Δt when the time increment Δt is small. The long-term stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log Z(t) for such a population equals μ − σ²/2 . Most populations, however, experience spatial as well as temporal variability. To understand the interactive effects of environmental stochasticity, spatial heterogeneity, and dispersal on population growth, we study an analogous model X(t) = (X¹(t) , . . . , X(n)(t)), t ≥ 0, for the population abundances in n patches: the conditional law of X(t+Δt) given X(t) = x is such that the conditional mean of X(i)(t+Δt) − X(i)(t) is approximately [x(i)μ(i) + Σ(j) (x(j) D(ji) − x(i) D(i j) )]Δt where μ(i) is the per capita growth rate in the ith patch and D(ij) is the dispersal rate from the ith patch to the jth patch, and the conditional covariance of X(i)(t+Δt)− X(i)(t) and X(j)(t+Δt) − X(j)(t) is approximately x(i)x(j)σ(ij)Δt for some covariance matrix Σ = (σ(ij)). We show for such a spatially extended population that if S(t) = X¹(t)+· · ·+ X(n)(t) denotes the total population abundance, then Y(t) = X(t)/S(t), the vector of patch proportions, converges in law to a random vector Y(∞) as t → ∞, and the stochastic growth rate lim(t→∞) t⁻¹ log S(t) equals the space-time average per-capita growth rate Σ(i)μ(i)E[Y(i)(∞)] experienced by the population minus half of the space-time average temporal variation E[Σ(i,j) σ(i j)Y(i)(∞) Y(j)(∞)] experienced by the population. Using this characterization of the

  1. Introduction. Evolutionary dynamics of wild populations: the use of long-term pedigree data.

    PubMed

    Kruuk, L E B; Hill, W G

    2008-03-22

    Studies of populations in the wild can provide unique insights into the forces driving evolutionary dynamics. This themed issue of Proc. R. Soc. B focuses on new developments in long-term analyses of animal populations where pedigree information has been collected. These address fundamental questions in evolutionary biology concerning the genetic basis of phenotypic diversity, patterns of natural and sexual selection, the occurrence of inbreeding and inbreeding depression, and speciation. Contributions include the analysis of evolutionary responses to climate change, exploration of the genetic basis of senescence, the exploitation of advances in molecular genetic technology, and reviews of developments in quantitative genetic methodology. We discuss here common themes, specific problems and pointers for future research.

  2. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  3. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    PubMed Central

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  4. SY 04-2 LONG-TERM CVD RISK PREDICTION IN LOW-INCIDENCE EUROPEAN POPULATIONS.

    PubMed

    Veronesi, Giovanni

    2016-09-01

    In Italy, the European SCORE Project risk score is the recommended tool for cardiovascular disease risk stratification in the primary prevention setting. Among non-diabetic subjects aged 40 to 64, the model estimates the 10-year probability of death due to cardiovascular disease based on individual's age, total cholesterol, blood pressure and smoking status. A growing body of evidence suggests that in middle-aged adults this stratification may suffer from two major drawbacks. First, mortality risk severely underestimates the global burden of disease incidence. Second, younger individuals and women are likely to be classified in the "low 10-year risk" category despite the presence of risk factors.The latest European and American guidelines have eventually introduced the assessment of long-term risk of disease as additional tool to improve risk communication and increase risk awareness. Long-term risk scores were first developed in the US and in the UK, i.e. in high-risk populations. In low-incidence populations, these models may have poor calibration and discrimination ability, as shown for the Framingham equation. Therefore, our research team developed and validated a 20-year risk score for the Italian population. As part of a collaborative study with the Italian Health Institute, we pooled 7 population-based cohorts of middle-aged individuals recruited in Northern and in Central Italy in mid 1980 s and early 1990 s following a similar protocol with standardized MONICA procedures. Overall, more than 10500 men and women 35-69 years old and free of CVD at baseline, who developed 830 first major atherosclerotic events (coronary heart disease or ischemic strokes) during a median 17 years of follow-up. The score was based on traditional risk factors (age, blood lipids, systolic blood pressure and treatment, smoking and diabetes). In addition, social status and family history of coronary heart disease did improve risk prediction, at least in men. Finally we showed

  5. Stochastic development in biologically structured population models.

    PubMed

    De Valpine, Perry

    2009-10-01

    Variation in organismal development is ubiquitous in nature but omitted from most age- and stage-structured population models. I give a general approach for formulating and analyzing its role in density-independent population models using the framework of integral projection models. The approach allows flexible assumptions, including correlated development times among multiple life stages. I give a new Monte Carlo numerical integration approach to calculate long-term growth rate, its sensitivities, stable age-stage distributions and reproductive value. This method requires only simulations of individual life schedules, rather than iteration of full population dynamics, and has practical and theoretical appeal because it ties easily implemented simulations to numerical solution of demographic equations. I show that stochastic development is demographically important using two examples. For a desert cactus, many stochastic development models, with independent or correlated stage durations, can generate the same stable stage distribution (SSD) as the real data, but stable age-within-stage distributions and sensitivities of growth rate to demographic rates differ greatly among stochastic development scenarios. For Mediterranean fruit flies, empirical variation in maturation time has a large impact on population growth. The systematic model formulation and analysis approach given here should make consideration of variable development models widely accessible and readily extendible.

  6. Analysis of inverse stochastic resonance and the long-term firing of Hodgkin-Huxley neurons with Gaussian white noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuckwell, Henry C.; Jost, Jürgen

    2012-11-01

    In order to explain the occurrence of a minimum in firing rate which occurs for certain mean input levels μ as noise level σ increases (inverse stochastic resonance, ISR) in Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) systems, we analyze the underlying transitions from a stable equilibrium point to limit cycle and vice-versa. For a value of μ at which ISR is pronounced, properties of the corresponding stable equilibrium point are found. A linearized approximation around this point has oscillatory solutions from whose maxima spikes tend to occur. A one dimensional diffusion is also constructed for small noise. Properties of the basin of attraction of the limit cycle (spike) are investigated heuristically. Long term trials of duration 500000 ms are carried out for values of σ from 0 to 2.0. The graph of mean spike count versus σ is divided into 4 regions R1,…,R4, where R3 contains the minimum associated with ISR. In R1 transitions to the basin of attraction of the rest point are not observed until a small critical value of σ=σ is reached, at the beginning of R2. The sudden decline in firing rate when σ is just greater than σ implies that there is only a small range of noise levels 0<σ<σ where repetitive spiking is safe from annihilation by noise. The firing rate remains small throughout R3. At a larger critical value σ=σ which signals the beginning of R4, the probability of transitions from the basin of attraction of the equilibrium point to that of the limit cycle apparently becomes greater than zero and the spike rate thereafter increases with increasing σ. The quantitative scheme underlying the ISR curve is outlined in terms of the properties of exit time random variables. In the final subsection, several statistical properties of the main random variables associated with long term spiking activity are given, including distributions of exit times from the two relevant basins of attraction and the interspike interval.

  7. Long-term model predictive control of gene expression at the population and single-cell levels

    PubMed Central

    Uhlendorf, Jannis; Miermont, Agnès; Delaveau, Thierry; Charvin, Gilles; Fages, François; Bottani, Samuel; Batt, Gregory; Hersen, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    Gene expression plays a central role in the orchestration of cellular processes. The use of inducible promoters to change the expression level of a gene from its physiological level has significantly contributed to the understanding of the functioning of regulatory networks. However, from a quantitative point of view, their use is limited to short-term, population-scale studies to average out cell-to-cell variability and gene expression noise and limit the nonpredictable effects of internal feedback loops that may antagonize the inducer action. Here, we show that, by implementing an external feedback loop, one can tightly control the expression of a gene over many cell generations with quantitative accuracy. To reach this goal, we developed a platform for real-time, closed-loop control of gene expression in yeast that integrates microscopy for monitoring gene expression at the cell level, microfluidics to manipulate the cells’ environment, and original software for automated imaging, quantification, and model predictive control. By using an endogenous osmostress responsive promoter and playing with the osmolarity of the cells environment, we show that long-term control can, indeed, be achieved for both time-constant and time-varying target profiles at the population and even the single-cell levels. Importantly, we provide evidence that real-time control can dynamically limit the effects of gene expression stochasticity. We anticipate that our method will be useful to quantitatively probe the dynamic properties of cellular processes and drive complex, synthetically engineered networks. PMID:22893687

  8. Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

    PubMed Central

    Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

  9. Long-term trend in pediatric antidepressant use, 1983-2007: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Meng, Xiangfei; D'Arcy, Carl; Tempier, Raymond

    2014-02-01

    Research is needed to clarify and improve our understanding of appropriateness and safety issues concerning antidepressant (AD) treatment. We explored the long-term trend in the dispensing of pediatric ADs using provincial, population-based data from Canada. Data covering 22 ADs were drawn from the Saskatchewan Ministry of Health administrative data files in outpatient settings. The data were for 9 triennial years from 1983 to 2007, a 24-year period, for those aged 0 to 19 in the general population. Descriptive analyses were used. In 1983, 5.9 per 1000 population aged 0 to 19 were dispensed at least 1 AD; this decreased to 5.1 per 1000 population in 1989, and then increased to 15.4 per 1000 population in 2007, with a slower increase after 2004. Both sexes were dispensed more ADs from 1989 onwards, with females being the heavier users. The rate of AD use increased significantly with age, and this trend became more pronounced after 1998. Family physicians were the major prescribers and their prescriptions significantly increased from 1989 to 2004 and decreased in 2007. The use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) was the major reason for the increase. The number of AD scripts per patient also increased. The growth in the prevalence of AD use among children and youth was largely caused by the use of SSRIs. The possibility of safety issues induced by AD use among children and adolescents, and different patterns of medication practice, suggest continuing education is warranted.

  10. Influence of melanin on mutation load in Drosophila populations after long-term irradiation

    SciTech Connect

    Mosse, I.B.; Lyakh, I.P.

    1994-09-01

    The effect of melanin on the level of mutation load has been studied in experimental Drosophila populations exposed to radiation for 115 generations. Four types of populations have been analyzed: (1) control; (2) treated with melanin; (3) irradiated; (4) irradiated and treated with melanin. Melanin was produced by auto-oxidation of 1-dioxyphenylallanine and was constantly added to food. Populations were X-irradiated twice in each generation (at the larvae stage with 6 Gy and at the imago stage with 9 Gy). The level of recessive mutation on the third chromosome was analyzed by a standard genetic method of balanced lethals. The data obtained have shown that the populations exposed to long-term irradiation have the greatest number of mutations decreasing viability. Melanin exhibited radioprotective properties-it reduced the percentage of lethal, semilethal and subvital mutations. Thus the possibility of effective protection of populations exposed to radiation for many generations by melanin has been shown for the first time. 19 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  11. Standardizing flow cytometric assays in long-term population-based studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melzer, Susanne; Bocsi, Jozsef; Tárnok, Attila

    2015-03-01

    Quantification of leukocyte subpopulations and characterization of antigen-expression pattern on the cellular surface can play an important role in diagnostics. The state of cellular immunology on the single-cell level was analyzed by polychromatic flow cytometry in a recent comparative study within the average Leipzig population (LIFE - Leipzig Research Centre for Civilization Diseases). Data of 1699 subjects were recorded over a long-time period of three years (in a total of 1126 days). To ensure compatibility of such huge data sets, quality-controls on many levels (stability of instrumentation, low intra-laboratory variance and reader independent data analysis) are essential. The LIFE study aims to analyze various cytometric pattern to reveal the relationship between the life-style, the environmental effects and the individual health. We therefore present here a multi-step quality control procedure for long-term comparative studies.

  12. [The process of bacterial population splitting into dissociants and long-term batch cultivation of bacteria].

    PubMed

    Mil'ko, E S; Mil'ko, D M

    2014-01-01

    The growth and composition of a population were studied during long-term (up to 50 days) batch cultivation of mono and mixed cultures of Pseudomonas aeruginosa S- and M-dissociants and Rhodobacter sphaeroides R- and M-dissociants without the addition of nutrients. During the cultivation of P. aeruginosa on a glucose-containing mineral medium, periodic lysis followed by polyculture growth resumption in the late stationary phase occurred on account of the M-dissociant: the change in its cell number corresponded to the change in the total cell number of the association. It was shown that the periodic occurrence of reducing sugars in the medium preceded the resumption ofpolyculture growth.

  13. Monitoring of patients on long-term glucocorticoid therapy: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Fardet, Laurence; Petersen, Irene; Nazareth, Irwin

    2015-04-01

    About 1% of the general population receives long-term systemic glucocorticoids. The monitoring provided to these patients is unknown. We conducted a population-based cohort study using The Health Improvement Network database. A total of 100,944 adult patients prescribed systemic glucocorticoids for >3 months between January 2000 and December 2012 were studied. The monitoring done before prescribing glucocorticoid therapy and during exposure to the drug was examined. This included measurement of body weight, blood pressure, lipids, glucose and potassium levels, referrals for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA-scan) or to an ophthalmologist/optician, and vaccinations. We assessed factors associated with the odds of being monitored before and during exposure. Before glucocorticoid initiation, weight and blood pressure were monitored in < 20% and < 50% of patients, respectively. Glucose and lipid levels were monitored in less than one-third of the patients, while DEXA-scan and eye monitoring were offered to <15% of them. Vaccination against flu and pneumococcus was given to 57% and 46% of the patients, respectively. During exposure to the drug, <60% of patients who were prescribed the drug for more than a year had their weight, glucose, or lipid levels recorded at least once and <25% of patients were referred at least once for DEXA-scan or screening for eye diseases. Overall, the odds of being monitored were higher in older patients and in those with comorbidities. There were variations in the level of monitoring provided across the UK, but the monitoring has improved over the last 12 years. Although the extent of monitoring of people on long-term glucocorticoids has improved over time, the overall monitoring provided is not satisfactory, particularly in young patients and those without comorbidities.

  14. Local competition and metapopulation processes drive long-term seagrass-epiphyte population dynamics.

    PubMed

    Lobelle, Delphine; Kenyon, Emma J; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2013-01-01

    It is well known that ecological processes such as population regulation and natural enemy interactions potentially occur over a range of spatial scales, and there is a substantial body of literature developing theoretical understanding of the interplay between these processes. However, there are comparatively few studies quantifying the long-term effects of spatial scaling in natural ecosystems. A key challenge is that trophic complexity in real-world biological communities quickly obscures the signal from a focal process. Seagrass meadows provide an excellent opportunity in this respect: in many instances, seagrasses effectively form extensive natural monocultures, in which hypotheses about endogenous dynamics can be formulated and tested. We present amongst the longest unbroken, spatially explict time series of seagrass abundance published to date. Data include annual measures of shoot density, total above-ground abundance, and associated epiphyte cover from five Zostera marina meadows distributed around the Isles of Scilly, UK, from 1996 to 2011. We explore empirical patterns at the local and metapopulation scale using standard time series analysis and develop a simple population dynamic model, testing the hypothesis that both local and metapopulation scale feedback processes are important. We find little evidence of an interaction between scales in seagrass dynamics but that both scales contribute approximately equally to observed local epiphyte abundance. By quantifying the long-term dynamics of seagrass-epiphyte interactions we show how measures of density and extent are both important in establishing baseline information relevant to predicting responses to environmental change and developing management plans. We hope that this study complements existing mechanistic studies of physiology, genetics and productivity in seagrass, whilst highlighting the potential of seagrass as a model ecosystem. More generally, this study provides a rare opportunity to test

  15. What predicts mortality in Parkinson disease?: a prospective population-based long-term study.

    PubMed

    Forsaa, E B; Larsen, J P; Wentzel-Larsen, T; Alves, G

    2010-10-05

    To identify independent risk factors of mortality in a community-based Parkinson disease (PD) cohort during prospective long-term follow-up. A community-based prevalent sample of 230 patients with PD from southwestern Norway was followed prospectively with repetitive assessments of motor and nonmotor symptoms from 1993 to 2005. Information on vital status until October 20, 2009, was obtained from the National Population Register in Norway. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to identify independent predictors of mortality during follow-up. Chronological age, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor score, levodopa equivalent dose, probable REM sleep behavior disorder, psychotic symptoms, dementia, and use of antipsychotics were included as time-dependent variables, and age at onset (AAO) and sex as time-independent variables. Of 230 patients, 211 (92%) died during the study period. Median survival time from motor onset was 15.8 years (range 2.2-36.6). Independent predictors of mortality during follow-up were AAO (hazard ratio [HR] 1.40 for 10-years increase, p = 0.029), chronological age (HR 1.51 for 10-years increase, p = 0.043), male sex (HR 1.63, p = 0.001), UPDRS motor score (HR 1.18 for 10-point increase, p < 0.001), psychotic symptoms (HR 1.45, p = 0.039), and dementia (HR 1.89, p = 0.001). This population-based long-term study demonstrates that in addition to AAO, chronological age, motor severity, and dementia, psychotic symptoms independently predict increased mortality in PD. In contrast, no significant impact of antipsychotic or antiparkinsonian drugs on survival was observed in our PD cohort. Early prevention of motor progression and development of psychosis and dementia may be the most promising strategies to increase life expectancy in PD.

  16. Population burden of long-term survivorship after severe sepsis in older Americans.

    PubMed

    Iwashyna, Theodore J; Cooke, Colin R; Wunsch, Hannah; Kahn, Jeremy M

    2012-06-01

    To ascertain the absolute number of Medicare beneficiaries surviving at least 3 years after severe sepsis and to estimate their burden of cognitive dysfunction and disability. Retrospective cohort analysis of Medicare data. All short-stay inpatient hospitals in the United States, 1996 to 2008. Individuals aged 65 and older. Severe sepsis was detected using a standard administrative definition. Case-fatality, prevalence, and incidence rates were calculated. Six hundred thirty-seven thousand eight hundred sixty-seven Medicare beneficiaries were alive at the end of 2008 who had survived severe sepsis 3 or more years earlier. An estimated 476,862 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 455,026-498,698) had functional disability, with 106,311 (95% CI = 79,692-133,930) survivors having moderate to severe cognitive impairment. The annual number of new 3-year survivors after severe sepsis rose 119% during 1998 to 2008. The increase in survivorship resulted from more new diagnoses of severe sepsis rather than a change in case-fatality rates; severe sepsis rates rose from 13.0 per 1,000 Medicare beneficiary-years to 25.8 (P < .001), whereas 3-year case fatality rates changed much less, from 73.5% to 71.3% (P < .001) for the same cohort. Increasing rates of organ dysfunction in hospitalized individuals drove the increase in severe sepsis incidence, with an additional small contribution from population aging. Sepsis survivorship, which has substantial long-term morbidity, is a common and rapidly growing public health problem for older Americans. There has been little change in long-term case-fatality, despite changes in practice. Clinicians should anticipate more-frequent sequelae of severe sepsis in their patient populations. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

  17. Connectivity structures local population dynamics: a long-term empirical test in a large metapopulation system.

    PubMed

    Castorani, Max C N; Reed, Daniel C; Alberto, Filipe; Bell, Tom W; Simons, Rachel D; Cavanaugh, Kyle C; Siegel, David A; Raimondi, Peter T

    2015-12-01

    Ecological theory predicts that demographic connectivity structures the dynamics of local populations within metapopulation systems, but empirical support has been constrained by major limitations in data and methodology. We tested this prediction for giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera, a key habitat-forming species in temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide, in southern California, USA. We combined a long-term (22 years), large-scale (~500 km coastline), high-resolution census of abundance with novel patch delineation methods and an innovative connectivity measure incorporating oceanographic transport and source fecundity. Connectivity strongly predicted local dynamics (well-connected patches had lower probabilities of extinction and higher probabilities of colonization, leading to greater likelihoods of occupancy) but this relationship was mediated by patch size. Moreover, the relationship between connectivity and local population dynamics varied over time, possibly due to temporal variation in oceanographic transport processes. Surprisingly, connectivity had a smaller influence on colonization relative to extinction, possibly because local ecological factors differ greatly between extinct and extant patches. Our results provide the first comprehensive evidence that southern California giant kelp populations function as a metapopulation system, challenging the view that populations of this important foundation species are governed exclusively by self-replenishment.

  18. Long-term population dynamics of breeding bird species in the German Wadden Sea area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vauk, Gottfried; Prüter, Johannes; Hartwig, Eike

    1989-09-01

    For no other group of organisms in coastal areas are there so exact and long-term data available as there are for seabirds. Since the beginning of the 20th century, documentation of population size, especially for species breeding in colonies from the groups gulls, terns and auks, is almost complete. These species act as bio-indicators, and data on fluctuations in their population size are useful as they reflect changes in the state of the marine ecosystem. The population development of some of these seabird species (Herring Gull, Guillemot, Common, Arctic and Sandwich Tern) from the German North Sea coast, which primarily feed on fish, is given. Common to all these species is an exponential increase in numbers in recent years (1970 1985). Possible causes for this development, e.g. pressure from enemies or competitors, availability of breeding places, anthropogenic stress and mortality factors, as well as the direct and indirect anthropogenic-influenced changes in the trophic system due to the increasing eutrophication of coastal waters, are evaluated. Signs of a collapse in the stocks of seabrids resulting from environmental pollution are discussed. Consequences resulting from the ecosystem changes, such as reduction of nutrient discharge into the North Sea and the expansion of biological monitoring, are described.

  19. Geriatrics and the triple aim: defining preventable hospitalizations in the long-term care population.

    PubMed

    Ouslander, Joseph G; Maslow, Katie

    2012-12-01

    Reducing preventable hospitalizations is fundamental to the "triple aim" of improving care, improving health, and reducing costs. New federal government initiatives that create strong pressure to reduce such hospitalizations are being or will soon be implemented. These initiatives use quality measures to define which hospitalizations are preventable. Reducing hospitalizations could greatly benefit frail and chronically ill adults and older people who receive long-term care (LTC) because they often experience negative effects of hospitalization, including hospital-acquired conditions, morbidity, and loss of functional abilities. Conversely, reducing hospitalizations could mean that some people will not receive hospital care they need, especially if the selected measures do not adequately define hospitalizations that can be prevented without jeopardizing the person's health and safety. An extensive literature search identified 250 measures of preventable hospitalizations, but the measures have not been validated in the LTC population and generally do not account for comorbidity or the capacity of various LTC settings to provide the required care without hospitalization. Additional efforts are needed to develop measures that accurately differentiate preventable from necessary hospitalizations for the LTC population, are transparent and fair to providers, and minimize the potential for gaming and unintended consequences. As the new initiatives take effect, it is critical to monitor their effect and to develop and disseminate training and resources to support the many community- and institution-based healthcare professionals and emergency department staff involved in decisions about hospitalization for this population. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

  20. Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils.

    PubMed

    Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

    2016-02-01

    Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated (13)C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing (13)C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears

  1. Long-term effects of timber harvesting on hemicellulolytic microbial populations in coniferous forest soils

    PubMed Central

    Leung, Hilary T C; Maas, Kendra R; Wilhelm, Roland C; Mohn, William W

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems need to be sustainably managed, as they are major reservoirs of biodiversity, provide important economic resources and modulate global climate. We have a poor knowledge of populations responsible for key biomass degradation processes in forest soils and the effects of forest harvesting on these populations. Here, we investigated the effects of three timber-harvesting methods, varying in the degree of organic matter removal, on putatively hemicellulolytic bacterial and fungal populations 10 or more years after harvesting and replanting. We used stable-isotope probing to identify populations that incorporated 13C from labeled hemicellulose, analyzing 13C-enriched phospholipid fatty acids, bacterial 16 S rRNA genes and fungal ITS regions. In soil microcosms, we identified 104 bacterial and 52 fungal hemicellulolytic operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Several of these OTUs are affiliated with taxa not previously reported to degrade hemicellulose, including the bacterial genera Methylibium, Pelomonas and Rhodoferax, and the fungal genera Cladosporium, Pseudeurotiaceae, Capronia, Xenopolyscytalum and Venturia. The effect of harvesting on hemicellulolytic populations was evaluated based on in situ bacterial and fungal OTUs. Harvesting treatments had significant but modest long-term effects on relative abundances of hemicellulolytic populations, which differed in strength between two ecozones and between soil layers. For soils incubated in microcosms, prior harvesting treatments did not affect the rate of incorporation of hemicellulose carbon into microbial biomass. In six ecozones across North America, distributions of the bacterial hemicellulolytic OTUs were similar, whereas distributions of fungal ones differed. Our work demonstrates that diverse taxa in soil are hemicellulolytic, many of which are differentially affected by the impact of harvesting on environmental conditions. However, the hemicellulolytic capacity of soil communities appears

  2. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  3. LONG TERM SURVIVAL FOLLOWING TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY: A POPULATION BASED PARAMETRIC SURVIVAL ANALYSIS

    PubMed Central

    Fuller, Gordon Ward; Ransom, Jeanine; Mandrekar, Jay; Brown, Allen W

    2017-01-01

    Background Long term mortality may be increased following traumatic brain injury (TBI); however the degree to which survival could be reduced is unknown. We aimed to model life expectancy following post-acute TBI to provide predictions of longevity and quantify differences in survivorship with the general population. Methods A population based retrospective cohort study using data from the Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) was performed. A random sample of patients from Olmsted County, Minnesota with a confirmed TBI between 1987 and 2000 was identified and vital status determined in 2013. Parametric survival modelling was then used to develop a model to predict life expectancy following TBI conditional on age at injury. Survivorship following TBI was also compared with the general population and age and gender matched non-head injured REP controls. Results 769 patients were included in complete case analyses. Median follow up time was 16.1 years (IQR 9.0–20.4) with 120 deaths occurring in the cohort during the study period. Survival after acute TBI was well represented by a Gompertz distribution. Victims of TBI surviving for at least 6 months post-injury demonstrated a much higher ongoing mortality rate compared to the US general population and non-TBI controls (hazard ratio 1·47, 95% CI 1·15–1·87). US general population cohort life table data was used to update the Gompertz model’s shape and scale parameters to account for cohort effects and allow prediction of life expectancy in contemporary TBI. Conclusions Survivors of TBI have decreased life expectancy compared to the general population. This may be secondary to the head injury itself or result from patient characteristics associated with both the propensity for TBI and increased early mortality. Post-TBI life expectancy estimates may be useful to guide prognosis, in public health planning, for actuarial applications and in the extrapolation of outcomes for TBI economic models. PMID:27165161

  4. The long-term population dynamics of common wasps in their native and invaded range.

    PubMed

    Lester, Philip J; Haywood, John; Archer, Michael E; Shortall, Chris R

    2017-03-01

    Populations of introduced species are often thought to perform differently, or experience different population dynamics, in their introduced range compared to their native habitat. Differences between habitats in climate, competition or natural enemies may result in populations with varying density dependence and population dynamics. We examined the long-term population dynamics of the invasive common wasp, Vespula vulgaris, in its native range in England and its invaded range in New Zealand. We used 39 years of wasp density data from four sites in England, and 23 years of data from six sites in New Zealand. Wasp population time series was examined using partial rate correlation functions. Gompertz population models and multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models were fitted, incorporating climatic variation. Gompertz models successfully explained 59-66% of the variation in wasp abundance between years. Density dependence in wasp populations appeared to act similarly in both the native and invaded range, with wasp abundance in the previous year as the most important variable in predicting intrinsic rate of increase (r). No evidence of cyclic population dynamics was observed. Both the Gompertz and MARSS models highlighted the role of weather conditions in each country as significant predictors of annual wasp abundance. The temporal evolution of wasp populations at all sites was best modelled jointly using a single latent dynamic factor for local trends, with the inclusion of a latent spring weather covariate. That same parsimonious multivariate model structure was optimal in both the native and invaded range. Density dependence is overwhelmingly important in predicting wasp densities and 'wasp years' in both the native and invaded range. Spring weather conditions in both countries have a major influence, probably through their impact on wasp colony initiation and early development. The population dynamics in the native range and invaded range show no

  5. Injury patterns in long-term refugee populations: a survey of Afghan refugees.

    PubMed

    Hyder, Adnan A; Ghaffar, Abdul; Masud, Tayyeb I; Bachani, Abdulgafoor M; Nasir, Khurram

    2009-03-01

    Injuries account for approximately 15% of global disability- adjusted life years lost each year and have an even greater impact on loss of life in vulnerable populations. For refugees, injuries reflect consequences of previous actions in their location of origin, current behavioral trends, and assimilation of risk factors from their adopted location. The Afghan Refugee Injury Survey (ARIS) was undertaken to describe the epidemiology of injuries in the long-term Afghan refugee population residing in Pakistan in 2002. ARIS is a cross-sectional survey of injuries, injury-related deaths, and disability administrated on a representative sample of households in selected Afghan refugee camps in Pakistan. The sample design was a stratified, systematic sample of all households in the study area. Altogether, 1,123 households, with 8,809 persons (51% males; mean age, 20 years +/- 17 years) were surveyed. One hundred twelve persons (1.27%, 95% CI = 1.0-1.5%) were injured during a 3-month recall period (69% males), reflecting an all-injury incidence of 50.8 per 1,000 persons/year. Our study provides an epidemiologic profile of injuries in Afghan refugees in Pakistan which can be used to inform policy makers, public health professionals, and healthcare providers to support injury prevention as a component of refugee health care.

  6. Investigating the historic long-term population health impact of the US National School Lunch Program.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Cora

    2014-12-01

    The present research aimed to compare historic participation in the US National School Lunch Program (NSLP) during childhood and subsequent prevalence of overweight and obesity among adults at the population level. Regression models examined cross-sectional, state- and age-based panel data constructed from multiple sources, including the Behavioural Risk Factor Surveillance System, US Congressional Record, US Census and the US Department of Agriculture. Models controlled for cohorts' racial/ethnic composition and state poverty rates. Adult-age cohorts (18-34, 35-49, 50-64 and 18-64 years) by US state over a 25-year period (1984-2008). The cohorts' prevalence of overweight and obesity was compared with the cohorts' estimated NSLP participation during schooling (1925-2007; the NSLP began in 1946). Among adults aged 18-64 years, a one percentage-point increase in estimated NSLP participation during schooling between 1925 and 2007 was significantly associated with a 0·29 percentage-point increase in the cohort's later prevalence of overweight and obesity. Analysis of narrower age cohorts and different schooling periods produced mixed results. The NSLP might have influenced population health historically. Longitudinal analysis of individuals from studies now underway will likely facilitate more robust conclusions about the NSLP's long-term health impact based on more recent experiences.

  7. Selective harvesting and habitat loss produce long-term life history changes in a mouflon population.

    PubMed

    Garel, Mathieu; Cugnasse, Jean-Marc; Maillard, Daniel; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Hewison, A J Mark; Dubray, Dominique

    2007-09-01

    We examined the long-term effects (28 years) of habitat loss and phenotype-based selective harvest on body mass, horn size, and horn shape of mouflon (Ovis gmelini musimon) in southern France. This population has experienced habitat deterioration (loss of 50.8% of open area) since its introduction in 1956 and unrestricted selective hunting of the largest horned males since 1973. Both processes are predicted to lead to a decrease in phenotype quality by decreasing habitat quality and by reducing the reproductive contribution of individuals carrying traits that are targeted by hunters. Body mass and body size of both sexes and horn measurements of males markedly decreased (by 3.4-38.3%) in all age classes from the 1970s. Lamb body mass varied in relation to the spatiotemporal variation of habitat closure within the hunting-free reserve, suggesting that habitat closure explains part of these changes. However, the fact that there was no significant spatial variation in body mass in the early part of the study, when a decline in phenotypic quality already had occurred, provided support for the influence of selective harvesting. We also found that the allometric relationship between horn breadth and horn length changed over the study period. For a given horn length, horn breadth was lower during the second part of the study. This result, as well as changes in horn curve diameter, supports the interpretation that selective harvesting of males based on their horn configuration had evolutionary consequences for horn shape, since this phenotypic trait is less likely to be affected by changes in habitat characteristics. Moreover, males required more time (approximately four years) to develop a desirable trophy, suggesting that trophy hunting favors the reproductive contribution of animals with slow-growing horns. Managers should exploit hunters' desire for trophy males to finance management strategies which ensure a balance between the population and its environment. However

  8. Long-term outcome of refractory status epilepticus in adults: A retrospective population-based study.

    PubMed

    Kantanen, Anne-Mari; Reinikainen, Matti; Parviainen, Ilkka; Kälviäinen, Reetta

    2017-07-01

    Refractory status epilepticus (RSE) is a neurological emergency with significant morbidity and mortality. We aimed to analyze the long-term outcome of intensive care unit (ICU)-treated RSE and super-refractory status epilepticus (SRSE) patients in a population based cohort. A retrospective study of ICU- and anesthesia-treated RSE patients in Kuopio University Hospital's (KUH) special responsibility area hospitals in the central and eastern part of Finland from Jan. 1, 2010 to Dec. 31, 2012 was conducted. KUH's catchment area consists of five hospitals-one university hospital and four central hospitals-and covers a population of 840 000. We included all consecutive adult (16 years or older) RSE patients admitted in the participating ICUs during the 3-year period and excluded patients with postanoxic etiologies. We used a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) as a long-term (1-year) outcome measure: good (mRS 0-3, recovered to baseline function) or poor (mRS 4-6, major functional deficit or death). We identified 75 patients with ICU- and anesthesia-treated RSE, corresponding to an annual incidence of 3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-3.8). 21% of the patients were classified as SRSE, with the annual incidence being 0.6/100 000 (95% CI 0.4-1.0). For RSE, the ICU mortality was 0%, hospital mortality was 7% (95% CI 1.2%-12.8%) (n=5), and one-year mortality was 23% (CI 95% 13.4%-32.5%) (n=17). 48% (n=36) of RSE patients recovered to baseline, and 29% (n=22) showed neurological deficit at 1year. Poor outcome (mRS 4-6) was recorded for 52% (n=39) of the patients. Older age was associated with poorer outcome at 1year (p=0.03). For SRSE, hospital mortality was 6% (n=1) and 1-year mortality was 19% (n=3) (95%CI 0%-38.2%). During 1-year follow-up, nearly 50% of the ICU-treated RSE patients recovered to baseline function, whereas 30% showed new functional defects and 20% died. SRSE does not have a necessarily poorer outcome. The outcome is worse in older patients and in patients with

  9. Vitamin status and cognitive function in a long-term care population

    PubMed Central

    Paulionis, Lina; Kane, Sheri-Lynn; Meckling, Kelly A

    2005-01-01

    Background Ageing can be associated with poor dietary intake, reduced nutrient absorption, and less efficient utilization of nutrients. Loss of memory and related cognitive function are also common among older persons. This study aimed to measure the prevalence of inadequate vitamin status among long-term care patients and determine if an association exists between vitamin status and each of three variables; cognitive function, vitamin supplementation, and medications which alter gastric acid levels. Methods Seventy-five patients in a long-term care hospital in Guelph, Ontario were recruited to a cross-sectional study. 47 were female and the mean age was 80.7 (+/-11.5) years, ranging from 48 to 100 years. Blood was used to measure levels of vitamins B12 (cobalamin), B6 (pyridoxal-5'-phosphate/PLP), erythrocyte folate, vitamin B3 (niacin) and homocysteine (Hcy). The Standardized Mini-Mental State Examination (SMMSE) was administered to measure cognitive function. A list of medications and vitamin supplementation for each patient was provided by the pharmacy. Results The prevalence of low vitamin (B12, B6, erythrocyte folate, niacin) or high metabolite (homocysteine) levels among 75 patients were as follows: B12 <148 pmol/L in 5/75 (6.7%); B12 between 148 and 221 pmol/L in 26/75 (34.7%); B6 ≤30 nmol/L in 4/75 (5.3%); erythrocyte folate <370 nmol/L in 1/75 (1.3%); niacin ratio ≤1 in 20/75 (26.7%); homocysteine >13.3 μmol/L in 31/75 (41.3%). There was no significant difference among residents grouped into marked (n = 44), mild (n = 14), or normal (n = 9) cognitive function when evaluating the effect of vitamin status. There were no significant differences in mean B12 and homocysteine levels between users and non-users of drug therapy (Losec, Zantac, or Axid). Compared to vitamin supplement non-users, supplemented residents had significantly higher mean B12 (p < 0.0001) and erythrocyte folate (p < 0.05) concentrations and significantly lower mean homocysteine (p

  10. Jensen's Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Evan J; Thomson, David L; Li, Teng A; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions.

  11. Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

    PubMed Central

    Pickett, Evan J.; Thomson, David L.; Li, Teng A.; Xing, Shuang

    2015-01-01

    It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions. PMID:26352857

  12. Safety and Long-term Outcomes of Congenital Ptosis Surgery: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Mokhtarzadeh, Ali; Bradley, Elizabeth A.

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To report the long-term outcomes of childhood ptosis surgery in a population-based setting over a 46-year period. Methods In this population-based cohort study, the medical records of all patients who were residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota, diagnosed as having blepharoptosis and having undergone surgical management prior to 19 years of age (between January 1, 1965, and December 31, 2010), were retrospectively reviewed. Age at time of surgery, type of surgery, duration of follow-up, number and nature of revisions, degree of amblyopia, and postoperative lagophthalmos and dry eye were documented. Results Forty-seven children meeting inclusion criteria underwent ptosis surgery. The median age at time of first surgery was 5.6 years (range: 1.5 to 17.7 years). Fifteen of 47 (31.9%) patients required a second procedure. Three of 47 (6.4%) patients underwent three procedures. The median time was 1.1 years (range: 0.03 to 7.8 years) between the first and second surgery and 6.0 years (range: 0.3 to 6.1 years) between the second and third procedure. Seven of 47 (14.9%) patients had amblyopia. Nineteen of 47 (40.4%) patients were noted to have lagophthalmos and 3 of 47 (6.4%) presented for symptomatic dry eye postoperatively. Conclusions In this population-based setting, more than half of children with ptosis required only a single surgical procedure, although a significant proportion required two procedures. Postoperative lagophthalmos is common, but symptomatic dry eye is rare. PMID:27281828

  13. Long term alcohol intake and risk of rheumatoid arthritis in women: a population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Di Giuseppe, Daniela; Alfredsson, Lars; Bottai, Matteo; Askling, Johan; Wolk, Alicja

    2012-07-10

    To analyse the association between alcohol intake and incidence of rheumatoid arthritis in women. Prospective cohort study with repeated measurements. The Swedish Mammography Cohort, a population based cohort from central Sweden. 34,141 women born between 1914 and 1948, followed up from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2009. Newly diagnosed cases of rheumatoid arthritis identified by linkage with two Swedish national registers. Data on alcohol consumption were collected in 1987 and 1997. During the follow-up period (226,032 person years), 197 incident cases of rheumatoid arthritis were identified. There was a statistically significant 37% decrease in risk of rheumatoid arthritis among women who drank >4 glasses of alcohol (1 glass = 15 g of ethanol) per week compared with women who drank <1 glass per week or who never drank alcohol (relative risk 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.96), P = 0.04). Drinking of all types of alcohol (beer, wine, and liquor) was non-significantly inversely associated with the risk of rheumatoid arthritis. Analysis of long term alcohol consumption showed that women who reported drinking >3 glasses of alcohol per week in both 1987 and 1997 had a 52% decreased risk of rheumatoid arthritis compared with those who never drank (relative risk 0.48 (0.24 to 0.98)). Moderate consumption of alcohol is associated with reduced risk of rheumatoid arthritis.

  14. Burns and long-term infectious disease morbidity: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Duke, Janine M; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M; Boyd, James H; Fear, Mark W

    2017-03-01

    There is a growing volume of data that indicates that serious injury suppresses immune function, predisposing individuals to infectious complications. With recent evidence showing long-term immune dysfunction after less severe burn, this study aimed to investigate post-burn infectious disease morbidity and assess if burn patients have increased long-term hospital use for infectious diseases. A population-based longitudinal study using linked hospital morbidity and death data from Western Australia for all persons hospitalised for a first burn (n=30,997) in 1980-2012. A frequency matched non-injury comparison cohort was randomly selected from Western Australia's birth registrations and electoral roll (n=123,399). Direct standardisation was used to assess temporal trends in infectious disease admissions. Crude annual admission rates and length of stay for infectious diseases were calculated. Multivariate negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression modeling were used to generate adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) and hazard ratios (HR), respectively. After adjustment for demographic factors and pre-existing health status, the burn cohort had twice (IRR, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.04, 1.98-2.22) as many admissions and 3.5 times the number of days in hospital (IRR, 95%CI: 3.46, 3.05-3.92) than the uninjured cohort for infectious diseases. Higher rates of infectious disease admissions were found for severe (IRR, 95%CI: 2.37, 1.89-2.97) and minor burns (IRR, 95%CI: 2.22, 2.11-2.33). Burns were associated with significantly increased incident admissions: 0-30days (HR, 95%CI: 5.18, 4.15-6.48); 30days-1year (HR, 95%CI: 1.69, 1.53-1.87); 1-10 years (HR, 95%CI: 1.40:1.33-1.47); >10years (HR, 95%CI: 1.16, 1.08-1.24). Respiratory, skin and soft tissue and gastrointestinal infections were the most common. The burn cohort had a 1.75 (95%CI: 1.37-2.25) times greater rate of mortality caused by infectious diseases during the 5-year period after discharge than

  15. Context-dependence of long-term responses of terrestrial gastropod populations to large-scale disturbance.

    Treesearch

    Christopher P. Bloch; Michael R. Willi

    2006-01-01

    Large-scale natural disturbances, such as hurricanes, can have profound effects on animal populations. Nonetheless, generalizations about the effects of disturbance are elusive, and few studies consider long-term responses of a single population or community to multiple large-scale disturbance events. In the last 20 y, twomajor hurricanes (Hugo and Georges) have struck...

  16. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  17. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  18. Long-term imaging of circadian locomotor rhythms of a freely crawling C. elegans population

    PubMed Central

    Winbush, Ari; Gruner, Matthew; Hennig, Grant W.; van der Linden, Alexander M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Locomotor activity is used extensively as a behavioral output to study the underpinnings of circadian rhythms. Recent studies have required a populational approach for the study of circadian rhythmicity in Caenorhabditis elegans locomotion. New method We describe an imaging system for long-term automated recording and analysis of locomotion data of multiple free-crawling C. elegans animals on the surface of an agar plate. We devised image analysis tools for measuring specific features related to movement and shape to identify circadian patterns. Results We demonstrate the utility of our system by quantifying circadian locomotor rhythms in wild-type and mutant animals induced by temperature cycles. We show that 13 °C:18 °C (12:12 h) cycles are sufficient to entrain locomotor activity of wild-type animals, which persist but are rapidly damped during 13 °C free-running conditions. Animals with mutations in tax-2, a cyclic nucleotide-gated (CNG) ion channel, significantly reduce locomotor activity during entrainment and free-running. Comparison with existing method(s) Current methods for measuring circadian locomotor activity is generally restricted to recording individual swimming animals of C. elegans, which is a distinct form of locomotion from crawling behavior generally observed in the laboratory. Our system works well with up to 20 crawling adult animals, and allows for a detailed analysis of locomotor activity over long periods of time. Conclusions Our population-based approach provides a powerful tool for quantification of circadian rhythmicity of C. elegans locomotion, and could allow for a screening system of candidate circadian genes in this model organism. PMID:25911068

  19. Orthostatic Hypotension and the Long-Term Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wolters, Frank J; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U S; Koudstaal, Peter J; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M Arfan

    2016-10-01

    dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04-1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent. In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia.

  20. Long-term effects of salt substitution on blood pressure in a rural north Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Zhou, B; Wang, H-L; Wang, W-L; Wu, X-M; Fu, L-Y; Shi, J-P

    2013-07-01

    Dietary sodium and potassium intake can influence blood pressure. The effects of salt substitution on patients with hypertension and normotensive family member controls, however, have not been evaluated in a rural Chinese population. The objective of this study, accordingly, was to assess the long-term effects of salt substitution on blood pressure. We conducted a double-blind, randomized controlled trial among 200 families in rural China to establish the 2-year effects of a reduced-sodium, high-potassium salt substitute (65% sodium chloride, 25% potassium chloride, 10% magnesium sulfate) compared with normal salt (100% sodium chloride) on blood pressure. Of the 462 individuals in the trial, 372 completed the study (81%). For normotensive subjects, the mean overall difference in systolic and diastolic blood pressure between the two groups at the 24-month follow-up was 2 mm Hg (95% confidence interval (CI) 0-4 mm Hg, P<0.05) and 2 mm Hg (95% CI 1-3 mm Hg, P<0.05), respectively. For subjects with hypertension, the mean overall decrease in systolic blood pressure showed a 4-mm Hg (95% CI 2-6 mm Hg, P<0.05) decrease between the two groups. Diastolic blood pressure was not affected by salt use in the hypertensive group. Salt substitution lowers systolic blood pressure in hypertensive patients and lowers both systolic and diastolic blood pressure in normotensive controls. Salt substitution, therefore, may be an effective adjuvant therapy for hypertensive patients and the potential efficacy in preventing hypertension in normotensive individuals.

  1. Long-term air pollution exposure and diabetes in a population-based Swiss cohort.

    PubMed

    Eze, Ikenna C; Schaffner, Emmanuel; Fischer, Evelyn; Schikowski, Tamara; Adam, Martin; Imboden, Medea; Tsai, Ming; Carballo, David; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Künzli, Nino; Schindler, Christian; Probst-Hensch, Nicole

    2014-09-01

    Air pollution is an important risk factor for global burden of disease. There has been recent interest in its possible role in the etiology of diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence is suggestive, but epidemiological evidence is limited and mixed. We therefore explored the association between air pollution and prevalent diabetes, in a population-based Swiss cohort. We did cross-sectional analyses of 6392 participants of the Swiss Cohort Study on Air Pollution and Lung and Heart Diseases in Adults [SAPALDIA], aged between 29 and 73 years. We used estimates of average individual home outdoor PM10 [particulate matter <10μm in diameter] and NO2 [nitrogen dioxide] exposure over the 10 years preceding the survey. Their association with diabetes was modeled using mixed logistic regression models, including participants' study area as random effect, with incremental adjustment for confounders. There were 315 cases of diabetes (prevalence: 5.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8, 7.2%]). Both PM10 and NO2 were associated with prevalent diabetes with respective odds ratios of 1.40 [95% CI: 1.17, 1.67] and 1.19 [95% CI: 1.03, 1.38] per 10μg/m(3) increase in the average home outdoor level. Associations with PM10 were generally stronger than with NO2, even in the two-pollutant model. There was some indication that beta blockers mitigated the effect of PM10. The associations remained stable across different sensitivity analyses. Our study adds to the evidence that long term air pollution exposure is associated with diabetes mellitus. PM10 appears to be a useful marker of aspects of air pollution relevant for diabetes. This association can be observed at concentrations below air quality guidelines. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Dental Implants in the Elderly Population: A Long-Term Follow-up.

    PubMed

    Compton, Sharon M; Clark, Danielle; Chan, Stephanie; Kuc, Iris; Wubie, Berhanu A; Levin, Liran

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate implant survival and success in the elderly population and to assess indicators and risk factors for success or failure of dental implants in older adults (aged 60 years and older). This historical prospective study was developed from a cohort of patients born prior to 1950 who received dental implants in a single private dental office. Implant survival and marginal bone levels were recorded and analyzed with regard to different patient- and implant-related factors. The study examined 245 patient charts and 1,256 implants from one dental clinic. The mean age at the time of implant placement was 62.18 ± 8.6 years. Smoking was reported by 9.4% of the cohort studied. The overall survival rate of the implants was 92.9%; 7.1% of the implants had failed. Marginal bone loss depicted by exposed threads was evident in 23.3% of the implants. Presenting with generalized periodontal disease and/or severe periodontal disease negatively influenced the survival probability of the implant. Implants placed in areas where bone augmentation was performed prior to or during implant surgery did not have the same longevity compared with those that did not have augmentation prior to implantation. The overall findings concluded that implants can be successfully placed in older adults. A variety of factors are involved in the long-term success of the implant, and special consideration should be taken prior to placing implants in older adults to limit the influence of those risk factors.

  3. Sudden death in childhood cardiomyopathy: results from a long-term national population-based study.

    PubMed

    Bharucha, Tara; Lee, Katherine J; Daubeney, Piers E F; Nugent, Alan W; Turner, Christian; Sholler, Gary F; Robertson, Terry; Justo, Robert; Ramsay, Jim; Carlin, John B; Colan, Steven D; King, Ingrid; Weintraub, Robert G; Davis, Andrew M

    2015-06-02

    Children with cardiomyopathy (CM) are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), but the incidence and risk factors for this outcome are not clear. This study sought to determine the incidence and risk factors for SCD in children with varying CM phenotypes from a long-term population-based study of childhood CM. The NACCS (National Australian Childhood Cardiomyopathy Study) is an ongoing longitudinal cohort study including all children in Australia with primary CM who were diagnosed between January 1, 1987, and December 31, 1996, and were <10 years of age. The cumulative incidence and risk factors for SCD within individual CM phenotypes were explored using survival analysis. Of 289 eligible patients, 16 (5.5%) experienced SCD over a median follow-up of 11.9 years (interquartile range: 1.7 to 15.4). The risk of SCD varied according to CM phenotype (p=0.007). The cumulative incidence of SCD at 15 years was 5% for dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), 6% for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), 12% for restrictive cardiomyopathy, and 23% for left ventricular (LV) noncompaction. Older age at diagnosis, positive family history of CM, and severity of LV dysfunction were related to increased risk of SCD in patients with DCM, and a higher posterior wall thickness Z-score was the sole risk factor identified for patients with HCM. Predictors of SCD include CM phenotype, family history of CM (DCM), severity of systolic dysfunction (DCM), and extent of LV hypertrophy (HCM). Continuing follow-up of this cohort into adulthood is likely to reveal an ongoing risk of SCD. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Characterization of a Fetal Liver Cell Population Endowed with Long-Term Multiorgan Endothelial Reconstitution Potential.

    PubMed

    Cañete, Ana; Comaills, Valentine; Prados, Isabel; Castro, Ana María; Hammad, Seddik; Ybot-Gonzalez, Patricia; Bockamp, Ernesto; Hengstler, Jan G; Gottgens, Bertie; Sánchez, María José

    2017-02-01

    Stable reconstitution of vascular endothelial beds upon transplantation of progenitor cells represents an important challenge due to the paucity and generally limited integration/expansion potential of most identified vascular related cell subsets. We previously showed that mouse fetal liver (FL) hemato/vascular cells from day 12 of gestation (E12), expressing the Stem Cell Leukaemia (SCL) gene enhancer transgene (SCL-PLAP(+) cells), had robust endothelial engraftment potential when transferred to the blood stream of newborns or adult conditioned recipients, compared to the scarce vascular contribution of adult bone marrow cells. However, the specific SCL-PLAP(+) hematopoietic or endothelial cell subset responsible for the long-term reconstituting endothelial cell (LTR-EC) activity and its confinement to FL developmental stages remained unknown. Using a busulfan-treated newborn transplantation model, we show that LTR-EC activity is restricted to the SCL-PLAP(+) VE-cadherin(+) CD45(-) cell population, devoid of hematopoietic reconstitution activity and largely composed by Lyve1(+) endothelial-committed cells. SCL-PLAP(+) Ve-cadherin(+) CD45(-) cells contributed to the liver sinusoidal endothelium and also to the heart, kidney and lung microvasculature. LTR-EC activity was detected at different stages of FL development, yet marginal activity was identified in the adult liver, revealing unknown functional differences between fetal and adult liver endothelial/endothelial progenitors. Importantly, the observations that expanding donor-derived vascular grafts colocalize with proliferating hepatocyte-like cells and participate in the systemic circulation, support their functional integration into young livers. These findings offer new insights into the engraftment, phonotypical, and developmental characterization of a novel endothelial/endothelial progenitor cell subtype with multiorgan LTR-EC activity, potentially instrumental for the treatment/genetic correction of

  5. Long-term population monitoring: Lessons learned from an endangered passerine in Hawai‘i

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Luanne; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Banko, Paul C.

    2006-01-01

    interpretation were regeneration of trees in response to reduced numbers of introduced browsing mammals, seasonally variable rates of vocalization, non-territoriality, and resource-tracking along an elevation gradient. We believe our adaptive approach to analysis and interpretation of 25 years of annual variable circular plot data could help guide similar long-term monitoring efforts.

  6. The CD44+ALDH+ Population of Human Keratinocytes Is Enriched for Epidermal Stem Cells with Long-Term Repopulating Ability

    PubMed Central

    Szabo, Akos Z.; Fong, Stephen; Yue, Lili; Zhang, Kai; Strachan, Lauren R.; Scalapino, Kenneth; Mancianti, Maria Laura; Ghadially, Ruby

    2014-01-01

    Like for other somatic tissues, isolation of a pure population of stem cells has been a primary goal in epidermal biology. We isolated discrete populations of freshly obtained human neonatal keratinocytes (HNKs) using previously untested candidate stem cell markers aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) and CD44 as well as the previously studied combination of integrin α6 and CD71. An in vivo transplantation assay combined with limiting dilution analysis was used to quantify enrichment for long-term repopulating cells in the isolated populations. The ALDH+CD44+ population was enriched 12.6-fold for long-term repopulating epidermal stem cells (EpiSCs) and the integrin α6hiCD71lo population was enriched 5.6-fold, over unfractionated cells. In addition to long-term repopulation, CD44+ALDH+ keratinocytes exhibited other stem cell properties. CD44+ALDH+ keratinocytes had self-renewal ability, demonstrated by increased numbers of cells expressing nuclear Bmi-1, serial transplantation of CD44+ALDH+ cells, and holoclone formation in vitro. CD44+ALDH+ cells were multipotent, producing greater numbers of hair follicle-like structures than CD44−ALDH− cells. Furthermore, 58% ± 7% of CD44+ALDH+ cells exhibited label-retention. In vitro, CD44+ALDH+ cells showed enhanced colony formation, in both keratinocyte and embryonic stem cell growth media. In summary, the CD44+ALDH+ population exhibits stem cell properties including long-term epidermal regeneration, multipotency, label retention, and holoclone formation. This study shows that it is possible to quantify the relative number of EpiSCs in human keratinocyte populations using long-term repopulation as a functional test of stem cell nature. Future studies will combine isolation strategies as dictated by the results of quantitative transplantation assays, in order to achieve a nearly pure population of EpiSCs. PMID:23335266

  7. Tibial stress fractures in an active duty population: long-term outcomes.

    PubMed

    Kilcoyne, Kelly G; Dickens, Jonathan F; Rue, John-Paul

    2013-01-01

    Tibial stress fractures are a common overuse injury among military recruits. The purpose of this study was to determine what, if any, long-term effects that tibial stress fractures have on military personnel with respect to physical activity level, completion of military training, recurrence of symptoms, and active duty service. Twenty-six military recruits included in a previous tibial stress fracture study were contacted 10 years after initial injury and asked a series of questions related to any long-term consequences of their tibial stress fracture. Of the 13 patients available for contact, no patients reported any necessary limited duty while on active duty, and no patient reported being separated or discharged from the military as a result of stress fracture. Tibial stress fractures in military recruits are most often an isolated injury and do not affect ability to complete military training or reflect a long-term need for decreased physical activity.

  8. Importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on the long-term boreal forest dynamics in Northern Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuosmanen, Niina; Seppä, Heikki; Alenius, Teija; Bradshaw, Richard; Clear, Jennifer; Filimonova, Fludmila; Heikkilä, Maija; Renssen, Hans; Tallavaara, Miikka; Reitalu, Triin

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoecological data provides valuable information for understanding the processes behind the past changes in forest composition, and hence can provide important knowledge regarding the potential effects of future changes in climate on boreal vegetation. Furthermore, it is essential to consider both regional and local factors in order to better understand the processes behind the boreal forest dynamics. The relative importance of climate, forest fires and human population size on long-term boreal forest composition were statistically investigated at regional and local scales in Fennoscandia. Statistical method variation partitioning was employed to assess the relative importance of these three variables. Fossil pollen data reflecting long-term boreal forest composition, at both regional (lake records) and local (small hollow records) scales from Russia, Finland and Sweden, were used as response matrix. Climate, generated from a climate model and oxygen isotope data, past forest fires generated from sedimentary charcoal data and human population size derived from radiocarbon dated archaeological findings were used as potential drivers of long-term boreal vegetation. Though the results clearly demonstrate that climate is the main driver of long-term vegetation changes at the regional scale, the role of climate notably is smaller at local scale and the influence of local site specific factors increases. However, the relative importance of forest fires on long-term changes in boreal forest composition remain generally low both at regional and local scale. The relatively low importance of both climate and forest fires on the variation in long-term boreal forest composition at local scale demonstrates the complexity of factors affecting stand-scale forest dynamics. In general, the relative importance of human population size on long-term changes in boreal vegetation was low. However, this was the first time that this type of human population size data was statistically

  9. The Population Impact of Long-term Use of Aspirin and Risk of Cancer

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Yin; Nishihara, Reiko; Wu, Kana; Wang, Molin; Ogino, Shuji; Willett, Walter C.; Spiegelman, Donna; Fuchs, Charles S.; Giovannucci, Edward L.; Chan, Andrew T.

    2016-01-01

    Importance The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended the use of aspirin to prevent colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease among many U.S adults. However, the association of aspirin on risk of other cancer types, and aspirin’s potential population-wide impact on cancer, particularly within the context of screening, remain uncertain. Objective To examine potential benefits of aspirin use for overall and subtype-specific cancer prevention, at a range of doses and duration of use, and estimate the absolute benefit of aspirin in the context of screening. Design Two large prospective cohort studies: the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980–2010) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986–2012). Setting Health professionals in the United States Participants 88,084 women and 47,881 men participating in the NHS and HPFS who reported aspirin use biennially. Main Outcome Measures Relative risks (RRs) for incident cancers and population attributable risk (PAR). Results During up to 32 years of follow-up, we documented 20,414 cancers among women and 7,571 among men. Compared with nonregular use, regular aspirin use was associated with lower risk of overall cancer (RR 0.97; 95% CI 0.94, 0.99), which was primarily due to a lower incidence of gastrointestinal cancers (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.80, 0.91), especially colorectal cancers (RR 0.81; 95% CI 0.75, 0.88). The benefit of aspirin on gastrointestinal cancers appeared evident with use of at least 0.5 to 1.5 standard aspirin tablets per week; the minimum duration of regular use associated with lower risk was 6 years. Among individuals aged over 50, regular aspirin use could prevent 33 colorectal cancers (PAR 17.0%) among those who have not undergone a lower endoscopy and 18 colorectal cancers per 100,000 person-years (PAR 8.5%) among those who have. Regular aspirin use was not associated with risk of breast, advanced prostate, or lung cancer. Conclusions and Relevance Long-term aspirin use was

  10. Improved analysis of long-term monitoring data demonstrates marked regional declines of bat populations in the eastern United States

    Treesearch

    Thomas E. Ingersoll; Brent J. Sewall; Sybill K. Amelon

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by...

  11. Changes in microbial populations of WPC34 and WPC80 whey protein during long term storage

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The use of whey protein (WPC34 and WPC80) as a food ingredient and as a base for making biodegradable products is increasing. The need to alleviate world hunger in arid and semi-arid regions demands that we investigate the behavior of native bacteria in these products, especially during long term st...

  12. Orthostatic Hypotension and the Long-Term Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Wolters, Frank J.; Mattace-Raso, Francesco U. S.; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M. Arfan

    2016-01-01

    .00–1.17, p = 0.06). The risk of dementia was particularly increased in those with OH who lacked a compensatory increase in heart rate (within lowest quartile of heart rate response: aHR 1.39, 95% CI 1.04–1.85, p-interaction = 0.05). Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding despite rigorous adjustments, and potentially limited generalisability to populations not of European descent. Conclusions In this population predominantly of European descent, OH was associated with an increase in long-term risk of dementia. PMID:27727284

  13. Anemia on Admission Is an Independent Predictor of Long-Term Mortality in Hip Fracture Population

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Licheng; Yin, Pengbin; Lv, Houchen; Long, Anhua; Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Lihai; Tang, Peifu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Anemia is a disputable factor for long-term mortality in hip fracture population in previous studies. Previous studies indicated that the level of hemoglobin (Hb) might fluctuate due to various factors, such as comorbidities and in-hospital interventions, and the changing level of Hb, may lead to discordance diagnosis of anemia and thus to the conflicting conclusions on prognostic value of anemia. So in this study, we aim to compare factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia at different time-points, admission, postoperation, and discharge, and to determine which the time point is most suitable for mortality prediction. This prospective cohort study included 1330 hip fracture patients from 1 January 2000 to 18 November 2012. Hb levels at 3 different time points, such as admission, postoperation, and discharge, were collected and used to stratify the cohort into anemia and nonanemia groups. Candidate factors including commodities, perioperative factors, blood transfusion, and other in-hospital interventions were collected before discharge. Logistic regression analyses were performed to detect risk factors for anemia for the 3 time points separately. Kaplan–Meier and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between anemia and 2-year mortality. Factors affecting the diagnosis of anemia were different for the 3 time points. Age, female sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists score (ASA), and intertrochanteric fracture were associated with admission anemia, while surgical procedure, surgical duration, blood transfusion, blood loss during the operation, and drainage volume were major risk factors for postoperation anemia. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis suggested that the risk of all-cause mortality was higher in the anemia group on admission (1.680, 95%CI: 1.201–2.350, P < 0.01), but not postoperation or on discharge, after adjustment for confounding factors. Our study showed that risk factors for anemia

  14. Burn injury and long-term nervous system morbidity: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Vetrichevvel, Thirthar P; Randall, Sean M; Fear, Mark W; Wood, Fiona M; Boyd, James H; Duke, Janine M

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate if children and adults who are hospitalised for a burn injury have increased long-term hospital use for nervous system diseases. Design A population-based retrospective cohort study using linked administrative health data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Participants Records of 30 997 persons hospitalised for a first burn injury in Western Australia during the period 1980–2012, and 123 399 persons who were age and gender frequency matched with no injury admissions randomly selected from Western Australia's birth registrations and electoral roll. Main outcome measures Admission rates and summed length of stay for nervous system diseases. Negative binomial and Cox proportional hazards regression modelling were used to generate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and HRs with 95% CIs, respectively. Results After adjustment for demographic factors and pre-existing health status, the burn injury cohort had 2.20 times (95% CI 1.86 to 2.61) as many nervous system admissions and 3.25 times the number of days in hospital (95% CI: 2.28 to 4.64) than the uninjured cohort. This increase was found for those who had sustained burns during childhood (<15 years: IRR, 95% CI: 1.97, 1.49 to 2.61) and early to mid-adulthood (15–45 years: IRR, 95% CI: 2.70, 2.06 to 3.55) and older adults (≥45 years: IRR, 95% CI: 1.62, 1.33 to 1.97). Significantly elevated first-time postburn admissions were observed for children for 15 years postburn discharge (0–5 years: HR, 95% CI: 1.97, 1.75 to 2.22; 5–15 years: HR, 95% CI: 1.44, 1.28 to 1.63) and for adults 45 years and older at index burn for 5 years postburn only (HR, 95% CI: 1.72, 1.42 to 2.09). Conclusions Burn injury appears to be associated with increased nervous system-related morbidity for many years after burn injury. Further work into the mechanisms and possible treatments to reduce this morbidity are warranted in light of these findings. PMID:27609857

  15. Long-term e-cigarette use and smoking cessation: a longitudinal study with US population

    PubMed Central

    Zhuang, Yue-Lin; Cummins, Sharon E; Y Sun, Jessica; Zhu, Shu-Hong

    2016-01-01

    Background E-cigarettes have grown popular. The most common pattern is dual use with conventional cigarettes. Dual use has raised concerns that it might delay quitting of cigarette smoking. This study examined the relationship between long-term use of e-cigarettes and smoking cessation in a 2-year period. Methods A nationally representative sample of 2028 US smokers were surveyed in 2012 and 2014. Long-term e-cigarette use was defined as using e-cigarettes at baseline and follow-up. Use of e-cigarettes only at baseline or at follow-up was defined as short-term use. Non-users did not use e-cigarettes at either survey. Quit attempt rates and cessation rates (abstinent for 3 months or longer) were compared across the three groups. Results At 2-year follow-up, 43.7% of baseline dual users were still using e-cigarettes. Long-term e-cigarette users had a higher quit attempt rate than short-term or non-users (72.6% vs 53.8% and 45.5%, respectively), and a higher cessation rate (42.4% vs 14.2% and 15.6%, respectively). The difference in cessation rate between long-term users and non-users remained significant after adjusting for baseline variables, OR=4.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 11.4) as did the difference between long-term users and short-term users, OR=4.8 (95% CI 1.6 to 13.9). The difference in cessation rate between short-term users and non-users was not significant, OR=0.9 (95% CI 0.5 to 1.4). Among those making a quit attempt, use of e-cigarettes as a cessation aid surpassed that of FDA-approved pharmacotherapy. Conclusions Short-term e-cigarette use was not associated with a lower rate of smoking cessation. Long-term use of e-cigarettes was associated with a higher rate of quitting smoking. PMID:27697953

  16. Long-term effects of parental divorce timing on depression: A population-based longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Chun, Sung-Youn; Jang, Suk-Yong; Choi, Jae-Woo; Shin, Jaeyong; Park, Eun-Cheol

    2016-09-08

    We examined the long-term effects of parental divorce timing on depression using longitudinal data from the Korean Welfare Panel Study. Depression symptoms were measured using the 11 items of Center for Epidemiologic Scale for Depression (CES-D-11), and we categorized parental divorce timing into 'early childhood', 'adolescent' and 'none'. Although participants who experienced parental divorce during adolescence exhibited a significantly higher CES-D-11 score (p = .0468), 'early childhood' participants displayed the most increased CES-D-11 score compared to the control group (p = .0007). Conversely, among participants who were unsatisfied with their marriage, those who experienced parental divorce in early childhood showed lower CES-D-11 scores, while 'adolescent period' participants exhibited significantly higher CES-D-11 scores (p = .0131). We concluded that timing of parental divorce exerts substantial yet varied effects on long-term depression symptoms and future marriage satisfaction. © The Author(s) 2016.

  17. Long-term female condom use among vulnerable populations in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Telles Dias, Paulo R; Souto, Katia; Page-Shafer, Kimberly

    2006-07-01

    We carried out an evaluative study on factors associated with long-term use of female condoms for STI/HIV prevention. A total of 255 women and 29 men who were using female condoms for at least 4 months participated in qualitative/quantitative interviews. The study was conducted in six Brazilian cities. Four primary themes were identified as influencing acceptability and adoption of the female condom: (1) personal "assistance" (counseling) during the early adoption phase; (2) safety; (3) pleasure; and (4) increased sense of power for safer sex negotiation. Alternate use of male and female condoms was the norm among participants, but for approximately one third of the sample, the female condom was the preferred option for safer sex. The study findings suggest that providing clients with explicit and sustained intervention strategies may have a decisive influence on long-term adoption of female condoms.

  18. Group therapy with WWII ex-POW's: long-term posttraumatic adjustment in a geriatric population.

    PubMed

    Boehnlein, J K; Sparr, L F

    1993-01-01

    In this assessment of group therapy with WWII ex-POWs, the small cohort limits generalizations; however, we offer a longitudinal perspective on group process. Posttraumatic suppression and denial of emotions appears to be adaptive for time-limited periods but is not a long-term solution. More lasting changes in self-esteem and social interaction may be partially achieved through a supportive group environment that fosters cognitive synthesis and reorganization.

  19. Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus.

    PubMed

    Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

    2013-01-01

    Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar.

  20. Host Resistance, Population Structure and the Long-Term Persistence of Bubonic Plague: Contributions of a Modelling Approach in the Malagasy Focus

    PubMed Central

    Gascuel, Fanny; Choisy, Marc; Duplantier, Jean-Marc; Débarre, Florence; Brouat, Carine

    2013-01-01

    Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. PMID:23675291

  1. [Long-Term Care Preferences Among Individuals of Advanced Age in Germany: Results of a Population-Based Study].

    PubMed

    Hajek, André; Lehnert, Thomas; Wegener, Annemarie; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

    2017-03-07

    The need for long-term care is expected to increase markedly in the next decades as a result of demographic ageing. Consequently, it is important to know the long-term care preferences. This study investigated the long-term care preferences among older individuals in Germany. Based on a systematic review and expert interviews, a questionnaire was designed to assess long-term care preferences. Data were gathered from a representative telephone survey of the German population (n=1,006; 65 years and above) in 2015. The mean age was 75.2 years (±6.6 years, ranging from 65 to 96 years). While nearly 90% of the individuals preferred home care, other care settings such as nursing care abroad were mostly undesired. In case of home care, most of the individuals preferred care provided by friends/family or formal caregivers, whereas the idea of all-day care services (such as employed private caregivers) was less popular. With respect to home care, additional services such as household assistance, transportation services, and emergency call systems were highly valued by the study participants, whereas continual supervision throughout the day was seen as less important. In case of inpatient care, more than 90% of the individuals preferred a private room, with the inpatient facility located near home or close to relatives' homes. A wide range of activities was appreciated. Given these preferences, it is assumed that there is a gap between expectations (preferences) and reality (utilization) regarding long-term care in Germany. Interventions aimed at minimizing this gap are urgently needed. For example, strategies to raise the awareness of private long-term care provision might be fruitful.

  2. Long-term drug use and polypharmacy among the elderly population in the Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina.

    PubMed

    Marković-Peković, Vanda; Škrbić, Ranko

    2016-05-01

    Prescription of drugs is a fundamental care component of the elderly. Elderly patients often take multiple drugs, and it is known that polypharmacy may lead to drug interactions and adverse events. The aim of this study was to analyze the long-term drug use and the prevalence of polypharmacy among the elderly population in the Republic of Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina. METHODS; A retrospective study of outpatient drug use in 2005 and 2010 was conducted, analyzing prescriptions for patients aged ≥ 65 years reimbursed by the Health Insurance Fund. The study population was stratified by gender and age. Long-term drug use was defined as continuous drug dispensing for a whole year or at least two thirds of the year. Polypharmacy was defined as the use of 5 or more different reimbursed drugs. Of all insured people aged ≥ 65 years, long-term drug use was identified in 10% (2005) and in 19% (2010), of whom 62% were women. Two to four different drugs were used by almost 49% (2005) and 54% (2010) of the elderly patients. The polypharmacy prevalence increased from 1.4% (2005) to 3.6% (2010); it increased in all the age groups of both genders. The largest increase was observed in the age group 65-74 years. Polypharmacy prevalence increase was higher in women. The most commonly used drugs were those for to treatment of cardiovascular diseases, in particular drugs for hypertension and cardiac treatment. The study findings point out to the increase of elderly population with a long-term drug use. Over a half of elderly patients use 2-4 different drugs on the long-term basis. The polypharmacy prevalence was low. It increased in the period of 5 years in both genders. The increase was more prominent in women of all the age groups. The use of multiple drugs and polypharmacy increased with ageing.

  3. Bowel, Urinary, and Sexual Problems Among Long-Term Prostate Cancer Survivors: A Population-Based Study

    SciTech Connect

    Mols, Floortje Korfage, Ida J.; Vingerhoets, Ad J.J.M.; Kil, Paul J.M.; Coebergh, Jan Willem W.; Essink-Bot, Marie-Louise; Poll-Franse, Lonneke V. van de

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain insight into the long-term (5- to 10-year) effects of prostate cancer and treatment on bowel, urinary, and sexual function, we performed a population-based study. Prostate-specific function was compared with an age-matched normative population without prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Through the population-based Eindhoven Cancer Registry, we selected all men diagnosed with prostate cancer between 1994 and 1998 in the southern Netherlands. In total, 964 patients, alive in November 2004, received questionnaire; 780 (81%) responded. Results: Urinary problems were most common after a prostatectomy; bowel problems were most common after radiotherapy. Compared with an age-matched normative population both urinary and bowel functioning and bother were significantly worse among survivors. Urinary incontinence was reported by 23-48% of survivors compared with 4% of the normative population. Bowel leakage occurred in 5-14% of patients compared with 2% of norms. Erection problems occurred in 40-74% of patients compared with 18% of norms. Conclusions: These results form an important contribution to the limited information available on prostate-specific problems in the growing group of long-term prostate cancer survivors. Bowel, urinary, and sexual problems occur more often among long-term survivors compared with a reference group and cannot be explained merely by age. Because these problems persist for many years, urologists should provide patients with adequate information before treatment. After treatment, there should be an appropriate focus on these problems.

  4. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning.

    PubMed

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-07-13

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses.

  5. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-07-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses.

  6. Magnetic Tunnel Junction Based Long-Term Short-Term Stochastic Synapse for a Spiking Neural Network with On-Chip STDP Learning

    PubMed Central

    Srinivasan, Gopalakrishnan; Sengupta, Abhronil; Roy, Kaushik

    2016-01-01

    Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) have emerged as a powerful neuromorphic computing paradigm to carry out classification and recognition tasks. Nevertheless, the general purpose computing platforms and the custom hardware architectures implemented using standard CMOS technology, have been unable to rival the power efficiency of the human brain. Hence, there is a need for novel nanoelectronic devices that can efficiently model the neurons and synapses constituting an SNN. In this work, we propose a heterostructure composed of a Magnetic Tunnel Junction (MTJ) and a heavy metal as a stochastic binary synapse. Synaptic plasticity is achieved by the stochastic switching of the MTJ conductance states, based on the temporal correlation between the spiking activities of the interconnecting neurons. Additionally, we present a significance driven long-term short-term stochastic synapse comprising two unique binary synaptic elements, in order to improve the synaptic learning efficiency. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed synaptic configurations and the stochastic learning algorithm on an SNN trained to classify handwritten digits from the MNIST dataset, using a device to system-level simulation framework. The power efficiency of the proposed neuromorphic system stems from the ultra-low programming energy of the spintronic synapses. PMID:27405788

  7. Extinction of metastable stochastic populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assaf, Michael; Meerson, Baruch

    2010-02-01

    We investigate the phenomenon of extinction of a long-lived self-regulating stochastic population, caused by intrinsic (demographic) noise. Extinction typically occurs via one of two scenarios depending on whether the absorbing state n=0 is a repelling (scenario A) or attracting (scenario B) point of the deterministic rate equation. In scenario A the metastable stochastic population resides in the vicinity of an attracting fixed point next to the repelling point n=0 . In scenario B there is an intermediate repelling point n=n1 between the attracting point n=0 and another attracting point n=n2 in the vicinity of which the metastable population resides. The crux of the theory is a dissipative variant of WKB (Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin) approximation which assumes that the typical population size in the metastable state is large. Starting from the master equation, we calculate the quasistationary probability distribution of the population sizes and the (exponentially long) mean time to extinction for each of the two scenarios. When necessary, the WKB approximation is complemented (i) by a recursive solution of the quasistationary master equation at small n and (ii) by the van Kampen system-size expansion, valid near the fixed points of the deterministic rate equation. The theory yields both entropic barriers to extinction and pre-exponential factors, and holds for a general set of multistep processes when detailed balance is broken. The results simplify considerably for single-step processes and near the characteristic bifurcations of scenarios A and B.

  8. Venom analysis of long-term captive Pakistan cobra (Naja naja) populations.

    PubMed

    Modahl, Cassandra M; Doley, Robin; Kini, R Manjunatha

    2010-01-01

    Venom production facilities keep established colonies of captive snakes to obtain venom for research and antiserum production. Due to strict regulations of importation, some of these colonies are formed with only a small number of initial animals and consist of closely related individuals (sometimes siblings). To understand the effect of long-term captivity on the venom composition and its impact on antiserum production, we analyzed 15 long-term captive Naja naja (Pakistan) originating from two separate venom production colonies using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry and electrophoresis. The chromatogram produced from each individual cobra venom was found to be different. When the protein molecular masses of the peaks were identified, it was found that all the venoms consisted of the same protein composition, but the concentration of the proteins were different. Although three-finger toxins and phospholipase A(2) enzymes are the major toxic components present in these venoms, there was a clear difference in the amounts of each individual isoform. Such variation may affect the ability of antivenoms in neutralizing the toxic components of the wild type venom.

  9. Long-term persistence, density dependence and effects of climate change on rosyside dace (Cyprinidae)

    Treesearch

    Gary D. Grossman; Gary Sundin; Robert E. Ratajczak

    2016-01-01

    SummaryWe used long-term population data for rosyside dace (Clinostomus funduloides), a numerically dominant member of a stochastically organised fish assemblage, to evaluate the relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent processes to population...

  10. Long-term mortality following fractures at different skeletal sites: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Melton, L J; Achenbach, S J; Atkinson, E J; Therneau, T M; Amin, S

    2013-05-01

    Adjusting for age, sex, and precipitating cause, the relative risk of death was increased following fractures at most skeletal sites. This study aims to determine long-term survival following fractures due to any cause at each skeletal site. In a historical cohort study, 2,901 Olmsted County, MN, USA, residents ≥35 years old who experienced any fracture in 1989-1991 were followed passively for up to 22 years for death from any cause. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared observed to expected deaths. During 38,818 person-years of follow-up, 1,420 deaths were observed when 1,191 were expected (SMR, 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.3). The overall SMR was greatest soon after fracture, especially among the men, but remained elevated for over a decade thereafter. Adjusting for age and sex, relative death rates were greater for pathological fractures and less for severe trauma fractures compared to the fractures due to no more than moderate trauma. In the latter group, long-term mortality was increased following fractures at many skeletal sites. After further adjustment for precipitating cause, overall SMRs were elevated not only following fractures at the traditional major osteoporotic sites (i.e., distal forearm, proximal humerus, thoracic/lumbar vertebrae, and proximal femur) combined (SMR, 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.3) but also following all other fracture types combined (SMR 1.2; 95 % CI, 1.1-1.4), excluding the hand and foot fractures not associated with any increased mortality. The persistence of increased mortality long after the occurrence of a fracture has generally been attributed to underlying comorbidity, but this needs to be defined in much greater detail if specific opportunities are to be identified for reducing the excess deaths observed.

  11. Landscape resistance to dispersal: simulating long-term effects of human disturbance on a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada.

    PubMed

    Stronen, Astrid V; Schumaker, Nathan H; Forbes, Graham J; Paquet, Paul C; Brook, Ryan K

    2012-11-01

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part, through the effects it has on individual dispersal. In addition, some forms of human disturbance impinge on dispersal without physically fragmenting habitats. Here, we use the term "landscape resistance" to capture constraints to dispersal that cannot be linked directly to fragmentation. The extent to which landscape resistance can influence population persistence is not well understood. Agricultural development over the past 60 years has resulted in considerable habitat fragmentation in the Riding Mountain National Park (RMNP) region in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. We examined how park boundaries, roads outside park boundaries and negative human attitudes have altered dispersal success and population persistence. We examined whether stochastic disturbance, representing infectious disease epidemics, further reduced long-term population persistence for various scenarios. Finally, we assessed whether the simultaneous occurrence of the three features had additive effects. We simulated dispersal using HexSim, a spatially explicit individual-based population model, parameterised with data on wolves (Canis lupus) in the RMNP region. Simulations that separately accounted for negative human attitudes and roads outside the park boundaries exhibited lower mean population size than those that ignored these details. Increasing deflection from park boundaries did not appear to have significant impacts. Our results did not indicate the presence of additive effects, and scenarios incorporating all three features had similar results as that of roads. Stochastic disturbance further reduced mean population size. Our results do illustrate how less-visible human disturbances (i.e. those that do not clearly alter landscape characteristics) can significantly limit dispersal and population persistence.

  12. Stochastic Gain in Population Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Traulsen, Arne; Röhl, Torsten; Schuster, Heinz Georg

    2004-07-01

    We introduce an extension of the usual replicator dynamics to adaptive learning rates. We show that a population with a dynamic learning rate can gain an increased average payoff in transient phases and can also exploit external noise, leading the system away from the Nash equilibrium, in a resonancelike fashion. The payoff versus noise curve resembles the signal to noise ratio curve in stochastic resonance. Seen in this broad context, we introduce another mechanism that exploits fluctuations in order to improve properties of the system. Such a mechanism could be of particular interest in economic systems.

  13. Long-term mortality rates (>8-year) improve as compared to the general and obese population following bariatric surgery.

    PubMed

    Telem, Dana A; Talamini, Mark; Shroyer, A Laurie; Yang, Jie; Altieri, Maria; Zhang, Qiao; Gracia, Gerald; Pryor, Aurora D

    2015-03-01

    Sparse data are available on long-term patient mortality following bariatric surgery as compared to the general population. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term mortality rates and identify risk factors for all-cause mortality following bariatric surgery. New York State (NYS) Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) longitudinal administrative data were used to identify 7,862 adult patients who underwent a primary laparoscopic bariatric surgery from 1999 to 2005. The Social Security Death Index database identified >30-day mortalities. Risk factors for mortality were screened using a univariate Cox proportional hazard (PH) model and analyzed using a multiple PH model. Based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity, actuarial projections for NYS mortality rates obtained from Centers of Disease Control were compared to the actual post-bariatric surgery mortality rates observed. The mean bariatric mortality rate was 2.5 % with 8-14 years of follow-up. Mean time to death ranged from 4 to 6 year and did not differ by operation (p = 0.073). From 1999 to 2010, the actuarial mortality rate predicted for the general NYS population was 2.1 % versus the observed 1.5 % for the bariatric surgery population (p = 0.005). Extrapolating to 2013, demonstrated the actuarial mortality predictions at 3.1 % versus the bariatric surgery patients' observed morality rate of 2.5 % (p = 0.01). Risk factors associated with an earlier time to death included: age, male gender, Medicare/Medicaid insurance, congestive heart failure, rheumatoid arthritis, pulmonary circulation disorders, and diabetes. No procedure-specific or perioperative complication impact for time-to-death was found. Long-term mortality rate of patients undergoing bariatric surgery significantly improves as compared to the general population regardless of bariatric operation performed. Additionally, perioperative complications do not increase long-term mortality risk. This study did identify specific patient

  14. Realized population change for long-term monitoring: California spotted owl case study

    Treesearch

    Mary M. Conner; John J. Keane; Claire V. Gallagher; Gretchen Jehle; Thomas E. Munton; Paula A. Shaklee; Ross A. Gerrard

    2013-01-01

    The annual rate of population change (λt) is a good metric for evaluating population performance because it summarizes survival and recruitment rates and can be used for open populations. Another measure of population performance, realized population change (Δt...

  15. Modelling cadmium contamination in paddy soils under long-term remediation measures: Model development and stochastic simulations.

    PubMed

    Peng, Chi; Wang, Meie; Chen, Weiping

    2016-09-01

    A pollutant accumulation model (PAM) based on the mass balance theory was developed to simulate long-term changes of heavy metal concentrations in soil. When combined with Monte Carlo simulation, the model can predict the probability distributions of heavy metals in a soil-water-plant system with fluctuating environmental parameters and inputs from multiple pathways. The model was used for evaluating different remediation measures to deal with Cd contamination of paddy soils in Youxian county (Hunan province), China, under five scenarios, namely the default scenario (A), not returning paddy straw to the soil (B), reducing the deposition of Cd (C), liming (D), and integrating several remediation measures (E). The model predicted that the Cd contents of soil can lowered significantly by (B) and those of the plants by (D). However, in the long run, (D) will increase soil Cd. The concentrations of Cd in both soils and rice grains can be effectively reduced by (E), although it will take decades of effort. The history of Cd pollution and the major causes of Cd accumulation in soil were studied by means of sensitivity analysis and retrospective simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Long-term economic consequences of child maltreatment: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Thielen, Frederick W; Ten Have, Margreet; de Graaf, Ron; Cuijpers, Pim; Beekman, Aartjan; Evers, Silvia; Smit, Filip

    2016-12-01

    Child maltreatment is prognostically associated with long-term detrimental consequences for mental health. These consequences are reflected in higher costs due to health service utilization and productivity losses in adulthood. An above-average sense of mastery can have protective effects in the pathogenesis of mental disorders and thus potentially cushion adverse impacts of maltreatment. This should be reflected in lower costs in individuals with a history of child maltreatment and a high sense of mastery. The aims of the study were to prognostically estimate the excess costs of health service uptake and productivity losses in adults with a history of child maltreatment and to evaluate how mastery may act as an effect modifier. Data were used on 5618 individuals participating in the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS). We focussed on measures of child maltreatment (emotional neglect, physical, psychological and sexual abuse) and economic costs owing to health-care uptake and productivity losses when people with a history of abuse have grown into adulthood. We evaluated how mastery acted as an effect modifier. Estimates were adjusted for demographics and parental psychopathology. Post-stratification weights were used to account for initial non-response and dropout. Due to the non-normal distribution of the costs data, sample errors, 95 % confidence intervals, and p values were calculated using non-parametric bootstrapping (1000 replications). Exposure to child maltreatment occurs frequently (6.9-24.8 %) and is associated with substantial excess costs in adulthood. To illustrate, adjusted annual excess costs attributable to emotional neglect are €1,360 (95 % CI: 615-215) per adult. Mastery showed a significant effect on these figures: annual costs were €1,608 in those with a low sense of mastery, but only €474 in those with a firmer sense of mastery. Child maltreatment has profound mental health consequences and is associated with

  17. Chronic Statin Use and Long-Term Rates of Sepsis: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Henry E; Griffin, Russell; Shapiro, Nathan I; Howard, George; Safford, Monika M

    2016-07-01

    "Statins" have immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects and may attenuate the risk of infections. We sought to determine the association between chronic statin use and long-term rates of sepsis events. We used data from 30 183 adult (≥45 years old) community-dwelling participants in the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort. The primary exposure was statin use. The primary outcome was hospitalization or emergency department treatment for sepsis. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we determined associations between statin use and first sepsis events, adjusting for patients demographics, health behaviors, chronic medical conditions, degree of medication adherence, baseline high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and propensity for statin use. Approximately one-third of participants reported statin use (n = 9475, 31.4%). During the 10-year follow-up period from 2003 to 2012, there were 1500 incident sepsis events. Statin use was not associated with rates of sepsis after multivariable adjustment for demographics, health behaviors, chronic medical conditions, medication adherence, abnormal hsCRP, and propensity for statin use, hazard ratio 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.81-1.06). Statin use was not similarly associated with rates of sepsis when stratified by propensity for statin use or medication adherence. In the REGARDS cohort, statin use at baseline was not associated with rates of future sepsis events. © The Author(s) 2014.

  18. Long-term consequences of high incubation temperature in a wild bird population.

    PubMed

    Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

    2016-04-01

    Because incubation by birds is energetically costly, parents frequently trade off investment in incubation against self-maintenance. This can be manifested by a reduction in incubation temperature, which comes at high somatic costs for nestlings. The extent to which these costs constrain fitness is poorly understood. We incubated wild blue tit clutches at three biologically relevant temperatures and subsequently recorded winter survival and survival to the breeding season. Fledglings from the coldest treatment (35.0°C) survived less well than other fledglings, but the proportion of winter and breeding survivors did not differ significantly between treatments. However, survival probability in both seasons increased with body mass at fledging in birds from low and mid incubation temperatures, but decreased with fledging body mass in the high-temperature treatment. Mid-temperature nestlings were heavier as adults, weighing 7% more than low- and high-temperature survivors. Thus, high incubation temperature can be beneficial in the short term, but costs of accelerated embryonic development may equal those of protracted development in the long term. Such hidden consequences of faster development could maintain natural selection for average incubation temperature. © 2016 The Author(s).

  19. China’s Rapidly Aging Population Creates Policy Challenges In Shaping A Viable Long-Term Care System

    PubMed Central

    Feng, Zhanlian; Liu, Chang; Guan, Xinping; Mor, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    In China, formal long-term care services for the large aging population have increased to meet escalating demands as demographic shifts and socioeconomic changes have eroded traditional elder care. We analyze China’s evolving long-term care landscape and trace major government policies and private-sector initiatives shaping it. Although home and community-based services remain spotty, institutional care is booming with little regulatory oversight. Chinese policy makers face mounting challenges overseeing the rapidly growing residential care sector, given the tension arising from policy inducements to further institutional growth, a weak regulatory framework, and the lack of enforcement capacity. We recommend addressing the following pressing policy issues: building a balanced system of services and avoiding an “institutional bias” that promotes rapid growth of elder care institutions over home or community-based care; strengthening regulatory oversight and quality assurance with information systems; and prioritizing education and training initiatives to grow a professionalized long-term care workforce. PMID:23213161

  20. Long-term frequency instability of atomic frequency references based on coherent population trapping and microfabricated vapor cells

    SciTech Connect

    Gerginov, Vladislav; Knappe, Svenja; Shah, Vishal; Schwindt, Peter D. D.; Hollberg, Leo; Kitching, John

    2006-04-15

    We present an evaluation of the long-term frequency instability and environmental sensitivity of a chip-scale atomic clock based on coherent population trapping, particularly as affected by the light-source subassembly. The long-term frequency stability of this type of device can be dramatically improved by judicious choice of operating parameters of the light-source subassembly. We find that the clock frequency is influenced by the laser-injection current, the laser temperature, and the rf modulation index. The sensitivity of the clock frequency to changes in the laser-injection current or the substrate temperature can be significantly reduced through adjustment of the rf modulation index. This makes the requirements imposed on the laser-temperature stabilization, in order to achieve a given frequency stability, less severe. The clock-frequency instability due to variations in local oscillator power is shown to be reduced through the choice of an appropriate light intensity inside the cell. The importance of these parameters with regard to the long-term stability of such systems is discussed.

  1. Short and long term neuro-behavioral alterations in type 1 diabetes mellitus pediatric population

    PubMed Central

    Litmanovitch, Edna; Geva, Ronny; Rachmiel, Marianna

    2015-01-01

    Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is one of the most prevalent chronic conditions affecting individuals under the age of 18 years, with increasing incidence worldwide, especially among very young age groups, younger than 5. There is still no cure for the disease, and therapeutic goals and guidelines are a challenge. Currently, despite T1DM intensive management and technological interventions in therapy, the majority of pediatric patients do not achieve glycemic control goals. This leads to a potential prognosis of long term diabetic complications, nephrological, cardiac, ophthalmological and neurological. Unfortunately, the neurological manifestations, including neurocognitive and behavioral complications, may present soon after disease onset, during childhood and adolescence. These manifestations may be prominent, but at times subtle, thus they are often not reported by patients or physicians as related to the diabetes. Furthermore, the metabolic mechanism for such manifestations has been inconsistent and difficult to interpret in practical clinical care, as reported in several reviews on the topic of brain and T1DM. However, new technological methods for brain assessment, as well as the introduction of continuous glucose monitoring, provide new insights and information regarding brain related manifestations and glycemic variability and control parameters, which may impact the clinical care of children and youth with T1DM. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the most recently reported behavioral, cognitive domains, sleep related, electrophysiological, and structural alterations in children and adolescences from a novel point of view. The review focuses on reported impairments based on duration of T1DM, its timeline, and modifiable disease related risk parameters. These findings are not without controversy, and limitations of data are presented in addition to recommendations for future research direction. PMID:25789107

  2. Long-term treatment costs for aggressive periodontitis in a German population.

    PubMed

    Schwendicke, Falk; Biffar, Anne Sophie; Graetz, Christian

    2017-09-14

    This study assessed the long-term annual costs for treating aggressive periodontitis (AgP) patients. A cohort of compliant AgP patients was retrospectively evaluated. Costs for active periodontal therapy (APT, including scaling and root planning, open flap debridement, root resections, but not pocket-elimination or regenerative surgery) and supportive periodontal therapy (SPT, including also costs for restorative, endodontic, prosthetic and surgical treatments) were estimated from a mixed payer-perspective in Germany. The impact of tooth- and patient-level factors on annual costs were assessed using mixed-modelling. 52 patients (mean [SD] age: 35.2/6.8 years), with 26.5 (4.0) teeth (38% with bone loss>50%) were treated. Mean follow-up (retention) time was 16.9 (5.4) years. Total treatment costs per patient and per tooth were 6998 (3807) and 267 (148) Euro, respectively. 87% of the costs were generated during SPT, 13% during APT. Annual patient- and tooth-level costs were 536 (209) and 20.1 (65.0) Euro, respectively. Annual tooth-level costs were significantly increased in patients aged 34 years or older, male patients, former or current smokers, teeth with furcation involvement degree II/III, and bone loss 50-70%. Annual treatment costs for treating AgP patients were similar to those found for chronic periodontitis patients. Certain parameters might predict costs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer

    PubMed Central

    Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C.; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region’s most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species’ total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  4. Long-Term Trends and Role of Climate in the Population Dynamics of Eurasian Reindeer.

    PubMed

    Uboni, Alessia; Horstkotte, Tim; Kaarlejärvi, Elina; Sévêque, Anthony; Stammler, Florian; Olofsson, Johan; Forbes, Bruce C; Moen, Jon

    2016-01-01

    Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi

  5. Individual variation in behavioural responsiveness to humans leads to differences in breeding success and long-term population phenotypic changes.

    PubMed

    Arroyo, Beatriz; Mougeot, François; Bretagnolle, Vincent

    2017-03-01

    Whether human disturbance can lead to directional selection and phenotypic change in behaviour in species with limited behavioural plasticity is poorly understood in wild animal populations. Using a 19-year study on Montagu's harrier, we report a long-term increase in boldness towards humans during nest visits. The probability of females fleeing or being passive during nest visits decreased, while defence intensity steadily increased over the study period. These behavioural responses towards humans were significantly repeatable. The phenotypic composition of the breeding population changed throughout the study period (4-5 harrier generations), with a gradual disappearance of shy individuals, leading to a greater proportion of bolder ones and a more behaviourally homogeneous population. We further show that nest visit frequency increased nest failure probability and reduced productivity of shy females, but not of bold ones. Long-term research or conservation programmes needing nest visits can therefore lead to subtle but relevant population compositional changes that require further attention. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  6. Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reynolds, Michelle H.; Courtot, Karen; Brinck, Kevin W.; Rehkemper, Cynthia; Hatfield, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

  7. Police use of handcuffs in the homeless population leads to long-term negative attitudes within this group.

    PubMed

    Krameddine, Yasmeen I; Silverstone, Peter H

    2016-01-01

    The police interact with homeless individuals frequently. However, there has been relatively little research on the attitudes of homeless individuals towards the police, and how police interactions may impact these. This is important since the attitudes of homeless individuals can impact how often they report crimes, and how well they support police when they are investigating crimes in this population. We interviewed 213 homeless individuals in a single city, representing approximately 10% of the total homeless population. They were interviewed at either homeless shelters, or events held specifically for the homeless population. Of these individuals, 75% were male, and 47% had interacted with a police officer within the past month. Self-reports suggested that 60% had a drug and/or alcohol issue and 78% had a mental illness. We found a highly statistically significant difference between the group that had been handcuffed and/or arrested compared to those that had not. This was across multiple domains and included how the individual regarded the police in terms of their empathy and communication skills, and how much they trusted the police. These changes were long-term, and if a homeless individual had been arrested or handcuffed (and verbal reporting suggested that being handcuffed was the by far the most important factor) then these negative attitudes lasted at least 2 years. The primary conclusion from this study is that when police handcuff a homeless individual, this can lead to long-term negative views about the police across several domains that appear to be long lasting, and were linked to feelings of not being respected by the police. It is therefore proposed that police officers should be made aware of the potential long-term negative consequences of this single action, and that police forces should consider providing specific training to minimize any unnecessary overuse of handcuffs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Long-term hantavirus persistence in rodent populations in central Arizona.

    PubMed Central

    Abbott, K. D.; Ksiazek, T. G.; Mills, J. N.

    1999-01-01

    For 35 months, we monitored hantavirus activity in rodent populations in central Arizona. The most frequently captured hantavirus antibody-positive rodents were Peromyscus boylii and P. truei. Antibody-positive P. boylii were more frequently male (84%), older, and heavier, and they survived longer on trapping web sites than antibody-negative mice. The number of antibody-positive P. boylii was greater during high population densities than during low densities, while antibody prevalence was greater during low population densities. Virus transmission and incidence rates, also related to population densities, varied by trapping site. The spatial distribution of antibody-positive P. boylii varied by population density and reflected the species preference for dense chaparral habitats. The focal ranges of antibody-positive P. boylii also demonstrated a patchy distribution of hantavirus. PMID:10081677

  9. Long-term hantavirus persistence in rodent populations in central Arizona.

    PubMed

    Abbott, K D; Ksiazek, T G; Mills, J N

    1999-01-01

    For 35 months, we monitored hantavirus activity in rodent populations in central Arizona. The most frequently captured hantavirus antibody-positive rodents were Peromyscus boylii and P. truei. Antibody-positive P. boylii were more frequently male (84%), older, and heavier, and they survived longer on trapping web sites than antibody-negative mice. The number of antibody-positive P. boylii was greater during high population densities than during low densities, while antibody prevalence was greater during low population densities. Virus transmission and incidence rates, also related to population densities, varied by trapping site. The spatial distribution of antibody-positive P. boylii varied by population density and reflected the species preference for dense chaparral habitats. The focal ranges of antibody-positive P. boylii also demonstrated a patchy distribution of hantavirus.

  10. The effect of long-term migration dynamics on population structure in England & Wales and Scotland.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Michael

    2016-07-01

    We investigated the effect of migration on population dynamics in England & Wales and Scotland from the mid-nineteenth century to the present by comparing actual population size and structure with estimates based on zero net migration from a range of starting dates. In this period, Scotland had the largest net outflow among countries in Europe for which detailed information is available, whereas overall net migration in England & Wales was close to zero. In the absence of migration, population would have been over twice as large in Scotland in 2013 as the actual value, but similar to its actual value in England & Wales. Levels and pace of population ageing have been broadly similar in both countries, so the major impact of differential migration has been on population size rather than structure. We discuss these findings in relation to the debate on migration policy between political parties supporting and opposing independence in the 2014 Scottish referendum.

  11. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans’ Population after Hurricane Katrina

    PubMed Central

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility – both evacuation and migration – after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster. PMID:26880853

  12. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed

    Homewood, K; Lambin, E F; Coast, E; Kariuki, A; Kikula, I; Kivelia, J; Said, M; Serneels, S; Thompson, M

    2001-10-23

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use.

  13. Long-term changes in Serengeti-Mara wildebeest and land cover: Pastoralism, population, or policies?

    PubMed Central

    Homewood, K.; Lambin, E. F.; Coast, E.; Kariuki, A.; Kikula, I.; Kivelia, J.; Said, M.; Serneels, S.; Thompson, M.

    2001-01-01

    Declines in habitat and wildlife in semiarid African savannas are widely reported and commonly attributed to agropastoral population growth, livestock impacts, and subsistence cultivation. However, extreme annual and shorter-term variability of rainfall, primary production, vegetation, and populations of grazers make directional trends and causal chains hard to establish in these ecosystems. Here two decades of changes in land cover and wildebeest in the Serengeti-Mara region of East Africa are analyzed in terms of potential drivers (rainfall, human and livestock population growth, socio-economic trends, land tenure, agricultural policies, and markets). The natural experiment research design controls for confounding variables, and our conceptual model and statistical approach integrate natural and social sciences data. The Kenyan part of the ecosystem shows rapid land-cover change and drastic decline for a wide range of wildlife species, but these changes are absent on the Tanzanian side. Temporal climate trends, human population density and growth rates, uptake of small-holder agriculture, and livestock population trends do not differ between the Kenyan and Tanzanian parts of the ecosystem and cannot account for observed changes. Differences in private versus state/communal land tenure, agricultural policy, and market conditions suggest, and spatial correlations confirm, that the major changes in land cover and dominant grazer species numbers are driven primarily by private landowners responding to market opportunities for mechanized agriculture, less by agropastoral population growth, cattle numbers, or small-holder land use. PMID:11675492

  14. Long-term Change in Cardiorespiratory Fitness and All-Cause Mortality: A Population-Based Follow-up Study.

    PubMed

    Laukkanen, Jari A; Zaccardi, Francesco; Khan, Hassan; Kurl, Sudhir; Jae, Sae Young; Rauramaa, Rainer

    2016-09-01

    Few studies have investigated long-term changes in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), defined by indirect measures of CRF, and all-cause mortality. We aimed to investigate whether long-term change in CRF, as assessed by the gold standard method of respiratory gas exchange during exercise, is associated with all-cause mortality. A population-based sample of 579 men aged 42 to 60 years with no missing data at baseline examination (V1) and at reexamination at 11 years (V2) were included. Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was measured at both visits using respiratory gas exchange during maximal exercise testing, and the difference (ΔVO2max) was calculated as VO2max (V2) - VO2max (V1). Deaths were ascertained annually using national death certificates during 15 years of follow-up after V2. The mean ΔVO2max was -5.2 mL/min*kg. During median follow-up of 13.3 years (interquartile range, 12.5-14.0 years), 123 deaths (21.2%) were recorded. In a multivariate analysis adjusted for baseline age, VO2max, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglyceride levels, C-reactive protein level, body mass index, alcohol consumption, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and history of type 2 diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease, a 1 mL/min*kg higher ΔVO2max was associated with a 9% relative risk reduction of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.95). This study suggested that in this population, long-term CRF reduction was associated with an increased risk of mortality, emphasizing the importance of maintaining good CRF over the decades. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Long-term mortality among older adults with burn injury: a population-based study in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Randall, Sean M; Wood, Fiona M

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess if burn injury in older adults is associated with changes in long-term all-cause mortality and to estimate the increased risk of death attributable to burn injury. Methods We conducted a population-based matched longitudinal study – based on administrative data from Western Australia’s hospital morbidity data system and death register. A cohort of 6014 individuals who were aged at least 45 years when hospitalized for a first burn injury in 1980–2012 was identified. A non-injury comparison cohort, randomly selected from Western Australia’s electoral roll (n = 25 759), was matched to the patients. We used Kaplan–Meier plots and Cox proportional hazards regression to analyse the data and generated mortality rate ratios and attributable risk percentages. Findings For those hospitalized with burns, 180 (3%) died in hospital and 2498 (42%) died after discharge. Individuals with burn injury had a 1.4-fold greater mortality rate than those with no injury (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.3–1.5). In this cohort, the long-term mortality attributable to burn injury was 29%. Mortality risk was increased by both severe and minor burns, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1–1.9) and 2.1 (95% CI: 1.9–2.3), respectively. Conclusion Burn injury is associated with increased long-term mortality. In our study population, sole reliance on data on in-hospital deaths would lead to an underestimate of the true mortality burden associated with burn injury. PMID:26240461

  16. Implications of incomplete registration of deaths on long-term survival estimates from population-based cancer registries.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Hakulinen, Timo

    2009-07-15

    International comparison of population-based cancer survival is a key component of monitoring progress against cancer. Its validity depends to an unknown degree on completeness of ascertainment of deaths in the cancer registries involved which may vary according to legal and administrative circumstances. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of incomplete registration of deaths through various mechanisms on the validity of long-term absolute and relative survival estimates. For that purpose, we simulated underascertainment of deaths through linkage failure of registry data with death certificates with probabilities between 0.1 and 5%, and underascertainment of deaths by unregistered annual emigration with probabilities between 0.05 and 2%, using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. The expected impact on estimates of 5-, 10- and 15-year absolute and relative survival was assessed. We demonstrate that even modest levels of under-registration of deaths may lead to severe overestimation of long-term survival estimates, ranging from 0 to 31 percent units in the scenarios assessed. In general, relative survival is much more affected than absolute survival, and potential problems are much larger for relative survival estimates in older compared with younger patients. Potential overestimation strongly increases with length of follow-up, and this increase is particularly pronounced for under-registration of deaths because of unrecorded emigration. Every effort should be made in cancer registry based survival analyses to ascertain deaths with close to 100% completeness. When such completeness cannot be achieved, long-term relative survival estimates and their comparison across populations must be interpreted with much caution.

  17. Population dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria and Pasteuria penetrans in a long-term crop rotation study.

    PubMed

    Timper, Patricia

    2009-12-01

    The endospore-forming bacterium Pasteuria penetrans is an obligate parasite of root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.). The primary objective of this study was to determine the effect of crop sequence on abundance of P. penetrans. The experiment was conducted from 2000 to 2008 at a field site naturally infested with both the bacterium and its host Meloidogyne arenaria and included the following crop sequences: continuous peanut (Arachis hypogaea) (P-P-P) and peanut rotated with either 2 years of corn (Zea mays) (C-C-P), 1 year each of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum) and corn (Ct-C-P), or 1 year each of corn and a vegetable (V-C-P). The vegetable was a double crop of sweet corn and eggplant (Solanum melongena). A bioassay with second-stage juveniles (J2) of M. arenaria from a greenhouse (GH) population was used to estimate endospore abundance under the different crop sequences. A greater numerical increase in endospore densities was expected in the P-P-P and V-C-P sequences than in the other sequences because both peanut and eggplant are good hosts for M. arenaria. However, endospore densities, as determined by bioassay, did not substantially increase in any of the sequences during the 9-year experiment. To determine whether the nematode population had developed resistance to the resident P. penetrans, five single egg-mass (SEM) lines from the field population of M. arenaria were tested alongside the GH population for acquisition of endospores from the field soil. Four of the five SEM lines acquired 9 to 14 spores/J2 whereas the GH population and one of the SEM lines acquired 3.5 and 1.8 spores/J2, respectively. Endospore densities estimated with the four receptive SEM lines were highest in the P-P-P plots (14-20 spores/J2), intermediate in the V-C-P plots (6-7 spores/J2), and lowest in the Ct-C-P plots (< 1 spore/J2). These results indicate that the field population of M. arenaria is heterogeneous for attachment of P. penetrans endospores. Moreover, spore densities

  18. The ‘stochastic river’: The use of budget-capacity modelling as a basis for predicting long-term properties of stratigraphic successions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tipper, John C.

    2007-11-01

    Sediment budget and sedimentation capacity are basic variables that can be used to describe the operation of sedimentation systems of all types; they are generalisations of sediment supply and accommodation. The sediment budget at a site is defined as the net flux of sediment across the site's boundaries; the sedimentation capacity is a measure of the deviation from equilibrium of the sedimentation system concerned. The operation of a sedimentation system is described by first specifying the system's budget-capacity relationship; this is most conveniently done by providing a probabilistic means of predicting budget from capacity. Once the budget-capacity relationship has been specified, a model of the system is constructed; this model follows the general rules put forward in the budget-capacity theory of sedimentation. The model enables the prediction of the patterns of deposition, stasis and erosion that the system will produce in time; from these patterns can then be determined the properties of the stratigraphic successions the system is expected to leave behind. There are many kinds of budget-capacity model. One of these, the 'stochastic river', is particularly useful in predicting long-term regularities in the stratigraphic thickness-time relationship. The 'stochastic river' is a two-dimensional budget-capacity model that mimics an idealised single-channel river. It is composed of a large number of similar sedimentation systems linked together in a chain, with each system fed exclusively from its upstream neighbour. The systems are continually perturbed by having their capacities altered by various external factors; these may be long-term regional-scale factors such as tectonically-induced basement subsidence and isostatic adjustment, as well as short-term local-scale factors such as changes in river discharge. The capacity perturbations are modelled as being driven by a random process; the perturbations of adjacent systems are spatially and temporally coupled

  19. Long-term population dynamics of phototrophic sulfur bacteria in the chemocline of Lake Cadagno, Switzerland.

    PubMed

    Tonolla, Mauro; Peduzzi, Raffaele; Hahn, Dittmar

    2005-07-01

    Population analyses in water samples obtained from the chemocline of crenogenic, meromictic Lake Cadagno, Switzerland, in October for the years 1994 to 2003 were studied using in situ hybridization with specific probes. During this 10-year period, large shifts in abundance between purple and green sulfur bacteria and among different populations were obtained. Purple sulfur bacteria were the numerically most prominent phototrophic sulfur bacteria in samples obtained from 1994 to 2001, when they represented between 70 and 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. All populations of purple sulfur bacteria showed large fluctuations in time with populations belonging to the genus Lamprocystis being numerically much more important than those of the genera Chromatium and Thiocystis. Green sulfur bacteria were initially represented by Chlorobium phaeobacteroides but were replaced by Chlorobium clathratiforme by the end of the study. C. clathratiforme was the only green sulfur bacterium detected during the last 2 years of the analysis, when a shift in dominance from purple sulfur bacteria to green sulfur bacteria was observed in the chemocline. At this time, numbers of purple sulfur bacteria had decreased and those of green sulfur bacteria increased by about 1 order of magnitude and C. clathratiforme represented about 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. This major change in community structure in the chemocline was accompanied by changes in profiles of turbidity and photosynthetically available radiation, as well as for sulfide concentrations and light intensity. Overall, these findings suggest that a disruption of the chemocline in 2000 may have altered environmental niches and populations in subsequent years.

  20. Long-term variation of fiddler crab populations in North Carolina salt marshes

    SciTech Connect

    Cammen, L.M.; Seneca, E.D.; Stroud, L.M.

    1984-06-01

    As part of the environmental monitoring of possible effects of the Brunswick nuclear power plant fiddle crab populations were sampled in several salt marshes in the lower Cape Fear River estuary, North Carolina for five years. Total biomass of the fiddler crabs Uca Pugnax and U. minax in four Spartina marshes declined by 65 to 70% between the summers of 1974-1975 and 1976-1977 with no significant decrease in population density; there was evidence of a recovery in summer of 1978 to the 1974-1975 levels. The cause of these fluctuations is unknown, but such a degree of variability in intertidal populations emphasizes the need for caution in using one or two-year baseline studies to evalute potential environmental impacts. 1 figure, 2 table.

  1. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia.

    PubMed

    Vershinin, Vladimir L; Vershinina, Svetlana D; Berzin, Dmitry L; Zmeeva, Darya V; Kinev, Alexander V

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats.

  2. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    PubMed Central

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats. PMID:25984350

  3. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

    PubMed

    Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-04-10

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Long-term observation of amphibian populations inhabiting urban and forested areas in Yekaterinburg, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vershinin, Vladimir L.; Vershinina, Svetlana D.; Berzin, Dmitry L.; Zmeeva, Darya V.; Kinev, Alexander V.

    2015-05-01

    This article presents data derived from a 36 year-long uninterrupted observational study of amphibian populations living in the city and vicinity of Yekaterinburg, Russia. This area is inhabited by six amphibian species. Based on a degree of anthropogenic transformation, the urban territory is divided into five highly mosaic zones characterized by vegetation, temperature, and a distinctive water pollution profile. Population data is presented year-by-year for the number of animals, sex ratio, and species-specific fecundity including the number and quality of spawns for the following amphibian species: Salamandrella keyserligii, Rana arvalis, R. temporaria, Lissotriton vulgaris, and Pelophylax ridibundus. These data provide an excellent opportunity to assess an urban environment from an animal population-wide perspective, as well as revealing the forces driving animal adaptation to the anthropogenic transformation of habitats.

  5. Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

    PubMed Central

    Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-01-01

    Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

  6. Long-term population-based divorce rates among adult survivors of childhood cancer in Britain.

    PubMed

    Frobisher, Clare; Lancashire, Emma R; Winter, David L; Taylor, Aliki J; Reulen, Raoul C; Hawkins, Michael M

    2010-01-01

    Previously from the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (BCCSS) it was seen that adult survivors of childhood cancer were less likely to marry than the general population. The objectives of this study were to assess the number of childhood cancer survivors from the BCCSS who were currently divorced or separated, examine factors associated with marriage dissolution and compare survivor divorce rates to population rates. The BCCSS is a population-based cohort of 18,119 individuals diagnosed with cancer aged 0-14 years between 1940 and 1991, and survived at least 5 years. 14,539 were alive, aged 16 years or over and eligible to receive a questionnaire, which ascertained marital status. From 8,155 survivors, who were aged at least 20 years at questionnaire completion, the proportions currently divorced and divorced or separated were 13.5% and 18.1%, respectively. Only current age, educational attainment and age at marriage were associated with divorce, and for divorce and separation status only age at marriage (P < 0.05). Overall the survivors were no different to the general population for being currently divorced (odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence intervals (95% CI)): 0.94 (0.81-1.10)). However, the survivors overall (OR (95% CI): 0.82 (0.72-0.94)), and separately for those diagnosed with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (OR (95% CI): 0.55 (0.34-0.89)) and leukaemia (OR (95% CI): 0.70 (0.52-0.95)), were less likely to be currently divorced or separated than the general population. It is reassuring that survivors do not experience more divorce than the general population, and that no cancer or treatment factors were shown to be associated with marriage dissolution. Copyright 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  7. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species - little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) - in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999-2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus has wide

  8. Improved Analysis of Long-Term Monitoring Data Demonstrates Marked Regional Declines of Bat Populations in the Eastern United States

    PubMed Central

    Amelon, Sybill K.

    2013-01-01

    Bats are diverse and ecologically important, but are also subject to a suite of severe threats. Evidence for localized bat mortality from these threats is well-documented in some cases, but long-term changes in regional populations of bats remain poorly understood. Bat hibernation surveys provide an opportunity to improve understanding, but analysis is complicated by bats' cryptic nature, non-conformity of count data to assumptions of traditional statistical methods, and observation heterogeneities such as variation in survey timing. We used generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to account for these complicating factors and to evaluate long-term, regional population trajectories of bats. We focused on four hibernating bat species – little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), Indiana myotis (M. sodalis), and northern myotis (M. septentrionalis) – in a four-state region of the eastern United States during 1999–2011. Our results, from counts of nearly 1.2 million bats, suggest that cumulative declines in regional relative abundance by 2011 from peak levels were 71% (with 95% confidence interval of ±11%) in M. lucifugus, 34% (±38%) in P. subflavus, 30% (±26%) in M. sodalis, and 31% (±18%) in M. septentrionalis. The M. lucifugus population fluctuated until 2004 before persistently declining, and the populations of the other three species declined persistently throughout the study period. Population trajectories suggest declines likely resulted from the combined effect of multiple threats, and indicate a need for enhanced conservation efforts. They provide strong support for a change in the IUCN Red List conservation status in M. lucifugus from Least Concern to Endangered within the study area, and are suggestive of a need to change the conservation status of the other species. Our modeling approach provided estimates of uncertainty, accommodated non-linearities, and controlled for observation heterogeneities, and thus

  9. Bacterial populations within copper mine tailings: long-term effects of amendment with Class A biosolids

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    This study evaluates the effect of surface application of dried Class A biosolids on microbial populations within copper mine tailings. Methods and Results: Mine tailing sites were established at ASARCO Mission Mine close to Sahuarita, Arizona. Site 1 (Dec. 1998) was amended with 248 tons ha-1 of C...

  10. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a ...

  11. Long-Term Benefits of Full-Day Kindergarten: A Longitudinal Population-Based Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownell, M. D.; Nickel, N. C.; Chateau, D.; Martens, P. J.; Taylor, C.; Crockett, L.; Katz, A.; Sarkar, J.; Burland, E.; Goh, C. Y.

    2015-01-01

    In the first longitudinal, population-based study of full-day kindergarten (FDK) outcomes beyond primary school in Canada, we used linked administrative data to follow 15 kindergarten cohorts (n ranging from 112 to 736) up to grade 9. Provincial assessments conducted in grades 3, 7, and 8 and course marks and credits earned in grade 9 were…

  12. LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS OF EASTERN OYSTER POPULATIONS UNDER VARIOUS MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Time series of fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data were used to parameterize a model of oyster population dynamics for Maryland's Chesapeake Bay. Model parameters are (1) fishing mortality, estimated from differences between predicted and reported landings scaled to a ...

  13. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    PubMed

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed.

  14. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  15. Population genetic analysis reveals a long-term decline of a threatened endemic Australian marsupial.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Birgita D; Harley, Daniel K P; Lindenmayer, David B; Taylor, Andrea C

    2009-08-01

    Since European colonization, Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) has declined across its range to the point where it is now only patchily distributed within the montane ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria. The loss of large hollow-bearing trees coupled with inadequate recruitment of mature ash forest has been predicted to result in a reduction in population size of up to 90% by 2020. Furthermore, bioclimatic analyses have suggested additional reductions in the species' distribution under a variety of climate change scenarios. Using a panel of 15 highly resolving microsatellite markers and mitochondrial control region sequence data, we infer past and present gene flow. Populations in the northern part of the core range were highly admixed, and showed no signs of either current or historical barriers to gene flow. A marginal, isolated and inbred population at Yellingbo was highly genetically differentiated, both in terms of current and historic genetic structure. Sequence data confirmed the conclusions from earlier genetic simulation studies that the Yellingbo population has been isolated from the rest of the species range since before European-induced changes to the montane landscape, and formed part of a larger genetic unit that is now otherwise extinct. Historic loss of maternal lineages in the Central Highlands of Victoria was detected despite signals of immigration, indicating population declines that most probably coincided with changes in climate at the end of the Pleistocene. Given ongoing habitat loss and the recent (February 2009) wildfire in the Central Highlands, we forecast (potentially extensive) demographic declines, in line with predicted range reductions under climate change scenarios.

  16. Long-Term Population Dynamics of Phototrophic Sulfur Bacteria in the Chemocline of Lake Cadagno, Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Tonolla, Mauro; Peduzzi, Raffaele; Hahn, Dittmar

    2005-01-01

    Population analyses in water samples obtained from the chemocline of crenogenic, meromictic Lake Cadagno, Switzerland, in October for the years 1994 to 2003 were studied using in situ hybridization with specific probes. During this 10-year period, large shifts in abundance between purple and green sulfur bacteria and among different populations were obtained. Purple sulfur bacteria were the numerically most prominent phototrophic sulfur bacteria in samples obtained from 1994 to 2001, when they represented between 70 and 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. All populations of purple sulfur bacteria showed large fluctuations in time with populations belonging to the genus Lamprocystis being numerically much more important than those of the genera Chromatium and Thiocystis. Green sulfur bacteria were initially represented by Chlorobium phaeobacteroides but were replaced by Chlorobium clathratiforme by the end of the study. C. clathratiforme was the only green sulfur bacterium detected during the last 2 years of the analysis, when a shift in dominance from purple sulfur bacteria to green sulfur bacteria was observed in the chemocline. At this time, numbers of purple sulfur bacteria had decreased and those of green sulfur bacteria increased by about 1 order of magnitude and C. clathratiforme represented about 95% of the phototrophic sulfur bacteria. This major change in community structure in the chemocline was accompanied by changes in profiles of turbidity and photosynthetically available radiation, as well as for sulfide concentrations and light intensity. Overall, these findings suggest that a disruption of the chemocline in 2000 may have altered environmental niches and populations in subsequent years. PMID:16000760

  17. Long-term population, productivity, and energy use trends in the sequence of leading capitalist nations.

    SciTech Connect

    LePoire, D. J.

    2010-10-01

    There are many theories on why sustainable science, technology, and commerce emerged first in Western Europe rather than elsewhere. A general theory is that the geography of Europe facilitated the development of diverse and independent states and resultant competition among them. Over the past 500 years, the sequence of leading states began with Portugal and the Netherlands on the edge of continental Western Europe, then moved to the British Isles, and finally moved across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States. The transitions of leadership from one state to another occurred about every 100 years. This sequence suggests that leadership moves from smaller states to larger states (although not to the largest existing state at the time), perhaps because larger states have the flexibility to develop more complex organizational processes and adapt new technology. To explore this theory further, this paper analyzes state population data at the beginning and end of each leadership period. The data reveal an accelerating initial population sequence. Further understanding is gained from comparing the populations of the preceding and succeeding states at the time of each transition: the succeeding state's population is usually about two times larger than that of the preceding state. It is also seen that over time, the new organizational processes and technologies developed by the leading state are diffused and adapted by other states. Evidence of the effects of this diffusion should be seen in the dynamics of relative productivity and energy use (since the relative advantage of new ideas and technology can be maintained for a short period of about 100 years). This paper investigates these trends in population, trade, and resources to provide insight on possible future transitions.

  18. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-08-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

  19. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England.

    PubMed

    Woodcock, Ben A; Isaac, Nicholas J B; Bullock, James M; Roy, David B; Garthwaite, David G; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F

    2016-08-16

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines.

  20. Impacts of neonicotinoid use on long-term population changes in wild bees in England

    PubMed Central

    Woodcock, Ben A.; Isaac, Nicholas J. B.; Bullock, James M.; Roy, David B.; Garthwaite, David G.; Crowe, Andrew; Pywell, Richard F.

    2016-01-01

    Wild bee declines have been ascribed in part to neonicotinoid insecticides. While short-term laboratory studies on commercially bred species (principally honeybees and bumblebees) have identified sub-lethal effects, there is no strong evidence linking these insecticides to losses of the majority of wild bee species. We relate 18 years of UK national wild bee distribution data for 62 species to amounts of neonicotinoid use in oilseed rape. Using a multi-species dynamic Bayesian occupancy analysis, we find evidence of increased population extinction rates in response to neonicotinoid seed treatment use on oilseed rape. Species foraging on oilseed rape benefit from the cover of this crop, but were on average three times more negatively affected by exposure to neonicotinoids than non-crop foragers. Our results suggest that sub-lethal effects of neonicotinoids could scale up to cause losses of bee biodiversity. Restrictions on neonicotinoid use may reduce population declines. PMID:27529661

  1. Reorganization of cortical population activity imaged throughout long-term sensory deprivation.

    PubMed

    Margolis, David J; Lütcke, Henry; Schulz, Kristina; Haiss, Florent; Weber, Bruno; Kügler, Sebastian; Hasan, Mazahir T; Helmchen, Fritjof

    2012-11-01

    Sensory maps are reshaped by experience. It is unknown how map plasticity occurs in vivo in functionally diverse neuronal populations because activity of the same cells has not been tracked over long time periods. Here we used repeated two-photon imaging of a genetic calcium indicator to measure whisker-evoked responsiveness of the same layer 2/3 neurons in adult mouse barrel cortex over weeks, first with whiskers intact, then during continued trimming of all but one whisker. Across the baseline period, neurons displayed heterogeneous yet stable responsiveness. During sensory deprivation, responses to trimmed whisker stimulation globally decreased, whereas responses to spared whisker stimulation increased for the least active neurons and decreased for the most active neurons. These findings suggest that recruitment of inactive, 'silent' neurons is part of a convergent redistribution of population activity underlying sensory map plasticity. Sensory-driven responsiveness is a key property controlling experience-dependent activity changes in individual neurons.

  2. Influence of long-term chronic exposure and weather conditions on Scots pine populations.

    PubMed

    Geras'kin, Stanislav; Vasiliyev, Denis; Makarenko, Ekaterina; Volkova, Polina; Kuzmenkov, Alexey

    2017-04-01

    Over a period of 8 years (2007-2014), we were evaluating seed quality and morphological abnormalities in Scots pine trees affected as a result of the Chernobyl accident. The calculated dose rates for the trees at the study sites varied from background values at the reference sites to 40 mGy/year at the most contaminated site. We investigated whether radioactive contamination and/or weather factors could decrease the reproductive capacity or increase the frequency of morphological abnormalities of needles in pine trees. Scots pine seeds are characterized by high interannual variability of viability, which is largely determined by weather conditions. No consistent differences in reproductive capacity were detected between the impacted and reference populations. Brachyblasts with three needles were found only in the affected populations; however, their frequency was very low and only at the very border of significance at the p < 0.10 level.

  3. Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response in a Long-Term Northern Elephant Seal Study

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2011 to 00-00-2011 4 . TITLE AND SUBTITLE Environmental Perturbations, Behavioral Change, and Population Response...condition to reproductive output; 4 ) continue and expand tag re-sighting to refine survival estimates; 5) continue satellite tracking of adult females to... Molting Seasons 2011 Funding from this grant supported multiple components of the field effort associated with the study of both foraging behavior

  4. Estimation of demographic parameters in a tiger population from long-term camera trap data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Karanth, K. Ullas; Nichols, James D.; O'Connell, Allan F.; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K. Ullas

    2011-01-01

    Chapter 7 (Karanth et al.) illustrated the use of camera trapping in combination with closed population capture–recapture (CR) models to estimate densities of tigers Panthera tigris. Such estimates can be very useful for investigating variation across space for a particular species (e.g., Karanth et al. 2004) or variation among species at a specific location. In addition, estimates of density continued at the same site(s) over multiple years are very useful for understanding and managing populations of large carnivores. Such multi-year studies can yield estimates of rates of change in abundance. Additionally, because the fates of marked individuals are tracked through time, biologists can delve deeper into factors driving changes in abundance such as rates of survival, recruitment and movement (Williams et al. 2002). Fortunately, modern CR approaches permit the modeling of populations that change between sampling occasions as a result of births, deaths, immigration and emigration (Pollock et al. 1990; Nichols 1992). Some of these early “open population” models focused on estimation of survival rates and, to a lesser extent, abundance, but more recent models permit estimation of recruitment and movement rates as well.

  5. Long-term analysis of survival, fertility, and population growth rate of black bears in North Carolina

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brongo, L.L.; Mitchell, M.S.; Grand, J.B.

    2005-01-01

    We estimated survival, fertility, and realized and asymptotic population growth rates from 1981 to 2002 for a protected population of black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachian Mountains. We used Akaike's information criterion to assess the time interval for averaging observations that was best for estimating vital rates for our study, given our yearly sample sizes. The temporal symmetry approach allowed us to directly assess population growth and to address all losses and gains to the population by using only capture data, offering an alternative to the logistically intensive collection of reproductive data. Models that averaged survival and fertility across 5- and 7-year time intervals were best supported by our data. Studies of black bear populations with annual sample sizes similar to ours should be of at least 5 years in duration to estimate vital rates reliably, and at least 10 years in duration to evaluate changes in population growth rate (??). We also hypothesized that survival would not track changes in ?? because ?? is influenced by both survival and fertility. The 5-year model supported our hypothesis, but the 7-year model did not. Where long-term dynamics of large, relatively stable bear populations are of interest, monitoring survival is likely to be sufficient for evaluating trends in ??. For rapidly changing, small populations, however, failure to incorporate fertility into assessments of ?? could be misleading. ?? 2005 American Society of Mammalogists.

  6. Spatial analysis of factors influencing long-term stress in the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population of Alberta, Canada.

    PubMed

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Cattet, Marc R L; Darimont, Chris T; Stenhouse, Gordon B

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  7. Spatial Analysis of Factors Influencing Long-Term Stress in the Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) Population of Alberta, Canada

    PubMed Central

    Bourbonnais, Mathieu L.; Nelson, Trisalyn A.; Cattet, Marc R. L.; Darimont, Chris T.; Stenhouse, Gordon B.

    2013-01-01

    Non-invasive measures for assessing long-term stress in free ranging mammals are an increasingly important approach for understanding physiological responses to landscape conditions. Using a spatially and temporally expansive dataset of hair cortisol concentrations (HCC) generated from a threatened grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in Alberta, Canada, we quantified how variables representing habitat conditions and anthropogenic disturbance impact long-term stress in grizzly bears. We characterized spatial variability in male and female HCC point data using kernel density estimation and quantified variable influence on spatial patterns of male and female HCC stress surfaces using random forests. Separate models were developed for regions inside and outside of parks and protected areas to account for substantial differences in anthropogenic activity and disturbance within the study area. Variance explained in the random forest models ranged from 55.34% to 74.96% for males and 58.15% to 68.46% for females. Predicted HCC levels were higher for females compared to males. Generally, high spatially continuous female HCC levels were associated with parks and protected areas while low-to-moderate levels were associated with increased anthropogenic disturbance. In contrast, male HCC levels were low in parks and protected areas and low-to-moderate in areas with increased anthropogenic disturbance. Spatial variability in gender-specific HCC levels reveal that the type and intensity of external stressors are not uniform across the landscape and that male and female grizzly bears may be exposed to, or perceive, potential stressors differently. We suggest observed spatial patterns of long-term stress may be the result of the availability and distribution of foods related to disturbance features, potential sexual segregation in available habitat selection, and may not be influenced by sources of mortality which represent acute traumas. In this wildlife system and others

  8. Stochastic Population Dynamics of a Montane Ground-Dwelling Squirrel

    PubMed Central

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A.; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H.; Oli, Madan K.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990–2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λs was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λs included 1.0 (0.52–1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration. PMID:22479616

  9. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    PubMed

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1) for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s) was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s) included 1.0 (0.52-1.60). Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years) probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  10. Chronic hepatitis C: treatment, complications, and long-term outcomes in a population of Latino veterans

    PubMed Central

    Santiago-Rolon, Amarilys; Purcell, Dagmary; Grigg, Nicole; Toro, Doris H.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) is a major public health problem in Puerto Rico. It is the most common cause of chronic liver disease and the most frequent indication for liver transplantation in the United States." Our main objectives were to estimate the seroprevalence of CHC infection, to describe the demographic and histological parameters of the infection in our sample population, and to evaluate the treatment outcomes in Puerto Rican veterans. Methods To determine overall seroprevalence, we reviewed all the hepatitis C cases (encompassing from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2009) of the VA Caribbean Healthcare System, Department of Veterans Affairs. The records of only those individuals who received treatment with pegylated interferon and ribavirin were reviewed to determine risks factors for infection, response rates, adverse events, and outcomes. Results During the study period, there were a total of 1,496 patients identified as being infected with HCV, for an estimated seroprevalence of 2.3%. Of these, approximately 10% (137) were treated with combination therapy and were included in this study. The mean age was 58 (±6.4); 96.4% were men. The most common genotype was type 1. The responses to treatment were generally poor, with only 48.4% of the patients achieving Ssustained virological response. Discussion Though the seroprevalence of chronic hepatitis C in the Latino veteran population of Puerto Rico is high, relatively few patients have received treatment, most probably because of the contraindications of the medications used. Combination therapy with pegylated interferon plus weight-based ribavirin was inefficient and plagued with side effects; as a whole, this therapy was not found to be overly beneficial to our patients. New emerging and approved therapies will change this paradigm, allowing the treatment of a larger population without the side effects of the studied therapy. PMID:26932282

  11. Reduced microsatellite heterozygosity in island endemics supports the role of long-term effective population size in avian microsatellite diversity

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Because of the high mutation rate of microsatellites, polymorphism at microsatellite loci might be predicted to reflect the effective population size over a time span of about 10,000 years and thus to be associated with biogeographic factors impacting species on that time frame. This prediction was tested by comparing heterozygosity at microsatellite loci from 294 bird species, including 58 species endemic to oceanic islands. Controlling statistically for phylogenetic effects, mean heterozygosity was significantly reduced in oceanic island endemics compared to other species. There was also an effect of current endangerment, statistically independent of the effect of island endemicity. These results support the hypothesis that long-term effective population size can be an important causative factor behind differences among species with respect to microsatellite heterozygosity. PMID:21104002

  12. Long-term variation of octocoral populations in St. John, US Virgin Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Elizabeth A.; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Lasker, Howard R.; Edmunds, Peter J.

    2015-12-01

    The decline in abundance of scleractinian corals over the past three decades in the Caribbean has raised the possibility that other important benthic taxa, such as octocorals, are also changing in abundance. We used photoquadrats taken over 20 yr from reefs (7-9 m depth) at six sites on the south coast of St. John, US Virgin Islands, to test the hypothesis that octocorals have changed in abundance since 1992. Octocorals were counted in 0.25 m2 photoquadrats at 2- to 3-yr intervals and identified to genus or family. Overall, there was variation over time in population density of octocorals (pooled among taxa, and also separately for Antillogorgia spp., Gorgonia spp., and plexaurids) at each site, and densities remained unchanged or increased over 20 yr; where increases in density occurred, the effects were accentuated after 2002. The local-scale analysis was expanded to the Caribbean (including the Florida Keys) by compiling data for octocoral densities from 31 studies for reefs at ≤25 m depth between 1968 and 2013. At this scale, analyses were limited by the paucity of historical data, and despite a weak trend of higher octocoral densities in recent decades, statistically, there was no change in octocoral abundance over time. Together with data from the whole Caribbean, the present analysis suggests that octocorals have not experienced a decadal-scale decline in population density, which has occurred for many scleractinian corals.

  13. Worldwide Population Structure, Long-Term Demography, and Local Adaptation of Helicobacter pylori

    PubMed Central

    Montano, Valeria; Didelot, Xavier; Foll, Matthieu; Linz, Bodo; Reinhardt, Richard; Suerbaum, Sebastian; Moodley, Yoshan; Jensen, Jeffrey D.

    2015-01-01

    Helicobacter pylori is an important human pathogen associated with serious gastric diseases. Owing to its medical importance and close relationship with its human host, understanding genomic patterns of global and local adaptation in H. pylori may be of particular significance for both clinical and evolutionary studies. Here we present the first such whole genome analysis of 60 globally distributed strains, from which we inferred worldwide population structure and demographic history and shed light on interesting global and local events of positive selection, with particular emphasis on the evolution of San-associated lineages. Our results indicate a more ancient origin for the association of humans and H. pylori than previously thought. We identify several important perspectives for future clinical research on candidate selected regions that include both previously characterized genes (e.g., transcription elongation factor NusA and tumor necrosis factor alpha-inducing protein Tipα) and hitherto unknown functional genes. PMID:25995212

  14. Long-term persistence of Chikungunya virus neutralizing antibodies in human populations of North Eastern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Nitatpattana, Narong; Kanjanopas, Kobkan; Yoksan, Sutee; Satimai, Wichai; Vongba, Narong; Langdatsuwan, Sasiporn; Nakgoi, Khajornpong; Ratchakum, Supot; Wauquier, Nadia; Souris, Marc; Auewarakul, Prasert; Gonzalez, Jean-Paul

    2014-10-21

    Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak recurrences in Thailand are unpredictable and separated by unexplained and often long silent epidemiological periods that can last for several years. These silent periods could be explained in part by the fact that infection with one CHIKV strain confers lasting natural immunity, even against other CHIKV strains. In this study we evaluated the persistence of CHIKV-specific neutralizing antibodies in the population of Chumpae District, Khon Kaen Province, nineteen years after a CHIKV outbreak occurred in the same area in 1991. Overall 39% (44/111) of 111 former patients had neutralizing antibodies reacting against CHIKV ECSA strain. Consistently high titers of neutralizing antibodies were found in 75% (33/44) of all positively-reacting sera, 70% of which (23/33) were collected from individuals amongst the >60 years old age group. Although the prevalence found in Pong Haeng village (70%) was significantly higher than the prevalence detected in the Nong Thum village (14%), control study villages without known previous Chikungunya epidemics had a high Chikungunya neutralizing antibody prevalence (65%). More than one-third of the pre-exposed population had persisting natural immunity that was more likely boosted by recent and repetitive exposure to the emerging ECSA CHIKV in Thailand. Also, Chikungunya virus appears to largely circulate in the country with a great variability appears between villages or area probably associated with the vector abundance and efficiency. Altogether these results show a potential for a lifelong immunity against CHIKV. Given the rapid spread of the highly pathogenic ECSA strain in Southern Thailand, the development of CHIK vaccine is strongly recommended.

  15. Multiple Processes Regulate Long-Term Population Dynamics of Sea Urchins on Mediterranean Rocky Reefs

    PubMed Central

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management. PMID:22606306

  16. Multiple processes regulate long-term population dynamics of sea urchins on Mediterranean rocky reefs.

    PubMed

    Hereu, Bernat; Linares, Cristina; Sala, Enric; Garrabou, Joaquim; Garcia-Rubies, Antoni; Diaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

    2012-01-01

    We annually monitored the abundance and size structure of herbivorous sea urchin populations (Paracentrotus lividus and Arbacia lixula) inside and outside a marine reserve in the Northwestern Mediterranean on two distinct habitats (boulders and vertical walls) over a period of 20 years, with the aim of analyzing changes at different temporal scales in relation to biotic and abiotic drivers. P. lividus exhibited significant variability in density over time on boulder bottoms but not on vertical walls, and temporal trends were not significantly different between the protection levels. Differences in densities were caused primarily by variance in recruitment, which was less pronounced inside the MPA and was correlated with adult density, indicating density-dependent recruitment under high predation pressure, as well as some positive feedback mechanisms that may facilitate higher urchin abundances despite higher predator abundance. Populations within the reserve were less variable in abundance and did not exhibit the hyper-abundances observed outside the reserve, suggesting that predation effects maybe more subtle than simply lowering the numbers of urchins in reserves. A. lixula densities were an order of magnitude lower than P. lividus densities and varied within sites and over time on boulder bottoms but did not differ between protection levels. In December 2008, an exceptionally violent storm reduced sea urchin densities drastically (by 50% to 80%) on boulder substrates, resulting in the lowest values observed over the entire study period, which remained at that level for at least two years (up to the present). Our results also showed great variability in the biological and physical processes acting at different temporal scales. This study highlights the need for appropriate temporal scales for studies to fully understand ecosystem functioning, the concepts of which are fundamental to successful conservation and management.

  17. Long Term Seasonal Dynamics of Synechococcus Population Structure in the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea

    PubMed Central

    Post, Anton F.; Penno, Sigrid; Zandbank, Keren; Paytan, Adina; Huse, Susan M.; Welch, David Mark

    2011-01-01

    Spatial patterns of marine Synechococcus diversity across ocean domains have been reported on extensively. However, much less is known of seasonal and multiannual patterns of change in Synechococcus community composition. Here we report on the genotypic diversity of Synechococcus populations in the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea, over seven annual cycles of deep mixing and stabile stratification, using ntcA as a phylogenetic marker. Synechococcus clone libraries were dominated by clade II and XII genotypes and a total of eight different clades were identified. Inclusion of ntcA sequences from the Global Ocean Sampling database in our analyses identified members of clade XII from beyond the Gulf of Aqaba, extending its known distribution. Most of the Synechococcus diversity was attributed to members of clade II during the spring bloom, while clade III contributed significantly to diversity during summer stratification. Clade XII diversity was most prevalent in fall and winter. Clade abundances were estimated from pyrosequencing of the V6 hypervariable region of 16S rRNA. Members of clade II dominated Synechococcus communities throughout the year, whereas the less frequent genotypes showed a pattern of seasonal succession. Based on the prevailing nutritional conditions we observed that clade I members thrive at higher nutrient concentrations during winter mixing. Clades V, VI and X became apparent during the transition periods between mixing and stratification. Clade III became prominent during sumeer stratification. We propose that members of clades V, VI, and X, and clade III are Synechococcus ecotypes that are adapted to intermediate and low nutrient levels respectively. This is the first time that molecular analyses have correlated population dynamics of Synechococcus genotypes with temporal fluctuations in nutrient regimes. Since these Synechococcus genotypes are routinely observed in the Gulf of Aqaba we suggest that seasonal fluctuations in nutrient levels

  18. Drastic changes in aquatic bacterial populations from the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexico) in response to long-term environmental stress.

    PubMed

    Pajares, Silvia; Eguiarte, Luis E; Bonilla-Rosso, German; Souza, Valeria

    2013-12-01

    Understanding the changes of aquatic microbial community composition in response to changes in temperature and ultraviolet irradiation is relevant for predicting biogeochemical modifications in the functioning of natural microbial communities under global climate change scenarios. Herein we investigate shifts in the bacterioplankton composition in response to long-term changes in temperature and UV radiation. For this purpose, 15 mesocosms were seeded with composite aquatic microbial communities from natural pools within the Cuatro Cienegas Basin (Mexican Chihuahuan desert) and were subject to different temperatures and UV conditions. 16S rRNA gene clone libraries were obtained from water samples at the mid-point (4 months) and the end of the experiment (8 months). An increase in bacterial diversity over time was found in the treatment of constant temperature and UV protection, which suggests that stable environments promote the establishment of complex and diverse bacterial community. Drastic changes in the phylogenetic bacterioplankton composition and structure were observed in response to fluctuating temperature and increasing UV radiation and temperature. Fluctuating temperature induced the largest decrease of bacterial richness during the experiment, indicating that frequent temperature changes drive the reduction in abundance of several species, most notably autotrophs. The long-term impact of these environmental stresses reduced diversity and selected for generalist aquatic bacterial populations, such as Porphyrobacter. These changes at the community level occur at an ecological time scale, suggesting that under global warming scenarios cascade effects on the food web are possible if the microbial diversity is modified.

  19. Health information needs and health-related quality of life in a diverse population of long-term cancer survivors✩

    PubMed Central

    Kent, Erin E.; Arora, Neeraj K.; Rowland, Julia H.; Bellizzi, Keith M.; Forsythe, Laura P.; Hamilton, Ann S.; Oakley-Girvan, Ingrid; Beckjord, Ellen B.; Aziz, Noreen M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate health information needs and their association with health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in a diverse, population-based sample of long-term cancer survivors. Methods We analyzed health information needs from 1197 cancer survivors 4–14 years post-diagnosis drawn from two cancer registries in California. Multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with endorsement of total number and different categories of needs. The relationship between number of needs and HRQOL and effect modification by confidence for obtaining information was examined. Results Survivors reported a high prevalence of unmet information needs in the following categories: side effects & symptoms: 75.8%; tests & treatment: 71.5%; health promotion: 64.5%; interpersonal & emotional: 60.2%; insurance: 39.0%; and sexual functioning & fertility: 34.6%. Survivors who were younger, non-White, and did not receive but wanted a written treatment summary reported a higher number of needs. Number of information needs was inversely related to mental well-being, particularly for those with low confidence for obtaining information (P < 0.05). Conclusion These patterns suggest disparities in access to important health information in long-term survivors and that affect HRQOL. Practice Implications Findings suggest a need for tailored interventions to equip survivors with comprehensive health information and to bolster skills for obtaining information. PMID:23021856

  20. Long terms trends of multimorbidity and association with physical activity in older English population.

    PubMed

    Dhalwani, Nafeesa N; O'Donovan, Gary; Zaccardi, Francesco; Hamer, Mark; Yates, Thomas; Davies, Melanie; Khunti, Kamlesh

    2016-01-19

    Multimorbidity has become one of the main challenges in the recent years for patients, health care providers and the health care systems globally. However, literature describing the burden of multimorbidity in the elderly population, especially longitudinal trends is very limited. Physical activity is recommended as one of the main lifestyle changes in the prevention and management of multiple chronic diseases worldwide; however, the evidence on its association with multimorbidity remains inconclusive. Therefore, we aimed to assess the longitudinal trends of multimorbidity and the association between multimorbidity and physical activity in a nationally representative cohort of the English population aged ≥50 years between 2002 and 2013. We used data on 15,688 core participants from six waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, with complete information on physical activity. Self-reported physical activity was categorised as inactive, mild, moderate and vigorous levels of physical activity. We calculated the number of morbidities and the prevalence of multimorbidity (more than 2 chronic conditions) between 2002 and 2013 overall and by levels of self-reported physical activity. We estimated the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for multimorbidity by each category of physical activity, adjusting for potential confounders. There was a progressive decrease over time in the proportion of participants without any chronic conditions (33.9% in 2002/2003 vs. 26.8% in 2012/2013). In contrast, the prevalence of multimorbidity steadily increased over time (31.7% in 2002/2003 vs. 43.1% in 2012/2013). Compared to the physically inactive group, the OR for multimorbidity was 0.84 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) in mild, 0.61 (95% CI 0.56 to 0.66) in moderate and 0.45 (95% CI 0.41 to 0.49) in the vigorous physical activity group. This study demonstrated an inverse dose-response association between levels of physical activity and multimorbidity, however, given the

  1. Long term prognosis of women with gestational diabetes in a multiethnic population

    PubMed Central

    Oldfield, Matthew D; Donley, Penelope; Walwyn, Linda; Scudamore, Ian; Gregory, Robert

    2007-01-01

    Aim To assess the glucose tolerance of South Asian and Caucasian women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). Method A retrospective follow‐up study of 189 women diagnosed with GDM between 1995 and 2001. Glucose tolerance was reassessed by oral glucose tolerance test at a mean duration since pregnancy of 4.38 years. Results South Asian women comprised 65% of the GDM population. Diabetes developed in 36.9% of the population, affecting more South Asian (48.6%) than Caucasian women (25.0%). Women developing diabetes were older at follow‐up (mean (SD) 38.8 (5.7) vs 35.9 (5.6) years; p<0.05) and had been heavier (body mass index 31.4 (6.3) vs 27.7 (6.7) kg/m2; p<0.05), more hyperglycaemic (Gl0 6.5 (1.7) vs 5.2 (1.1) mmol/l; p<0.01: G120 11.4 (3.3) vs 9.6 (1.8) mmol/l; p<0.01: HbA1c 6.4 (1.0) vs 5.6 (0.7); p<0.01) and more likely to require insulin during pregnancy (88.1% vs 34.0%; p<0.01). Future diabetes was associated with and predicted by HbA1c taken at GDM diagnosis in both South Asian (odds ratio 4.09, 95% confidence interval 1.35 to 12.40; p<0.05) and Caucasian women (OR 9.15, 95% CI 1.91 to 43.87; p<0.01) as well as by previously reported risk factors of increasing age at follow‐up, pregnancy weight, increasing hyperglycaemia and insulin requirement during pregnancy. Conclusion GDM represents a significant risk factor for future DM development regardless of ethnicity. Glycated haemoglobin values at GDM diagnosis have value in predicting future diabetes mellitus. PMID:17551077

  2. Long term prognosis of women with gestational diabetes in a multiethnic population.

    PubMed

    Oldfield, Matthew D; Donley, Penelope; Walwyn, Linda; Scudamore, Ian; Gregory, Robert

    2007-06-01

    To assess the glucose tolerance of South Asian and Caucasian women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). A retrospective follow-up study of 189 women diagnosed with GDM between 1995 and 2001. Glucose tolerance was reassessed by oral glucose tolerance test at a mean duration since pregnancy of 4.38 years. South Asian women comprised 65% of the GDM population. Diabetes developed in 36.9% of the population, affecting more South Asian (48.6%) than Caucasian women (25.0%). Women developing diabetes were older at follow-up (mean (SD) 38.8 (5.7) vs 35.9 (5.6) years; p<0.05) and had been heavier (body mass index 31.4 (6.3) vs 27.7 (6.7) kg/m(2); p<0.05), more hyperglycaemic (Gl(0) 6.5 (1.7) vs 5.2 (1.1) mmol/l; p<0.01: G(120) 11.4 (3.3) vs 9.6 (1.8) mmol/l; p<0.01: HbA1c 6.4 (1.0) vs 5.6 (0.7); p<0.01) and more likely to require insulin during pregnancy (88.1% vs 34.0%; p<0.01). Future diabetes was associated with and predicted by HbA1c taken at GDM diagnosis in both South Asian (odds ratio 4.09, 95% confidence interval 1.35 to 12.40; p<0.05) and Caucasian women (OR 9.15, 95% CI 1.91 to 43.87; p<0.01) as well as by previously reported risk factors of increasing age at follow-up, pregnancy weight, increasing hyperglycaemia and insulin requirement during pregnancy. GDM represents a significant risk factor for future DM development regardless of ethnicity. Glycated haemoglobin values at GDM diagnosis have value in predicting future diabetes mellitus.

  3. Dietary tofu intake and long-term risk of death from stroke in a general population.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Ho N; Miyagawa, Naoko; Miura, Katsuyuki; Okuda, Nagako; Yoshita, Katsushi; Arai, Yusuke; Nakagawa, Hideaki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Ojima, Toshiyuki; Kadota, Aya; Takashima, Naoyuki; Fujiyoshi, Akira; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Abbott, Robert D; Okamura, Tomonori; Okayama, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu

    2016-12-03

    Although dietary soy intake is linked with health benefits, a relation with stroke has not been established. The present study examined the association between the intake of tofu, the richest source of dietary soy, with stroke mortality in a general population cohort of Japanese men and women. Data comprise 9244 Japanese enrolled in the National Nutrition Survey of Japan in 1980. Participants were free of cardiovascular disease and followed for 24 years. Dietary intake was estimated from 3-day weighed food records. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios across levels of tofu intake. During follow-up, there were 417 deaths due to stroke (88 cerebral hemorrhage [CH], 245 cerebral infarction [CI], and 84 of other subtypes). Among all men, and in women aged 65 years or more, tofu intake was unrelated to each form of stroke. For young women (<65 years of age), a significantly lower risk of CH in the top versus bottom quartile of tofu intake was observed (Multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.85). In this large prospective study with long follow-up of Japanese men and women, consumption of tofu was unrelated to the risk of stroke except for CH in women <65 years of age. Whether the association in younger women is real or due to chance alone warrants further study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  4. Long-term application of winery wastewater - Effect on soil microbial populations and soil chemistry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosse, Kim; Patti, Antonio; Smernik, Ron; Cavagnaro, Timothy

    2010-05-01

    The ability to reuse winery wastewater (WWW) has potential benefits both with respect to treatment of a waste stream, as well as providing a beneficial water resource in water limited regions such as south-eastern Australia, California and South Africa. Over an extended time period, this practice leads to changes in soil chemistry, and potentially, also to soil microbial populations. In this study, we compared the short term effects of WWW (both treated and untreated) application on soil biology and chemistry in two adjacent paired sites with the same soil type, one of which had received WWW for approximately 30 years, and the other which had not. The paired sites were treated with an industrially relevant quantity of WWW, and the soil microbial activity (measured as soil CO2 efflux) and common soil physicochemical properties were monitored over a 16-day period. In addition, Solid State 13C NMR was employed on whole soil samples from the two sites, to measure and compare the chemical nature of the soil organic matter at the paired sites. The acclimatised soil showed a high level of organic matter and a greater spike in microbial activity following WWW addition, in comparison with the non-acclimatised soil, suggesting differences in soil chemistry and soil microbial communities between the two sites. Soil nitrate and phosphorus levels showed significant differences between WWW treatments; these differences likely to be microbially mediated.

  5. Plant breeding: a long-term strategy for the control of zinc deficiency in vulnerable populations.

    PubMed

    Ruel, M T; Bouis, H E

    1998-08-01

    Because trace minerals are important not only for human nutrition but for plant nutrition as well, plant breeding holds great promise for making a significant, sustainable, low-cost contribution to the reduction of micronutrient deficiencies in humans. It may also have important spinoff effects for increasing farm productivity in developing countries in an environmentally beneficial way. This article describes ongoing plant breeding research that could increase the intake of bioavailable zinc from food staple crops in vulnerable populations in developing countries. The 3 most promising plant breeding strategies toward this goal are as follows: 1) increasing the concentration of zinc, 2) reducing the amount of phytic acid (a strong inhibitor of zinc absorption), and 3) raising the concentrations of sulfur-containing amino acids (thought to promote zinc absorption) in the plant. The agronomic advantages and disadvantages as well as the potential benefits and limitations of each approach for human nutrition are described. Research is currently underway to identify the optimal combination of these approaches that will maximize the effect on human zinc nutrition.

  6. Long-term cancer risk after hysterectomy on benign indications: Population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Altman, Daniel; Yin, Li; Falconer, Henrik

    2016-06-01

    Hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for adverse health effects. However, little is known about the association between hysterectomy and subsequent cancer occurrence later in life. The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of hysterectomy on the incidence of cancer. In this population-based cohort study, we used data on 111,595 hysterectomized and 537,9843 nonhysterectomized women from nationwide Swedish Health Care registers including the Inpatient Register, the Cancer Register and the Cause of Death Register between 1973 and 2009. Hysterectomy with or without concomitant bilateral salpingo-ophorectomy (BSO) performed on benign indications was considered as exposure and incidence of primary cancers was used as outcome measure. Rare primary cancers (<100 cases for the two groups combined) were excluded from analysis. A marginal risk reduction for any cancer was observed for women with previous hysterectomy and for those with hysterectomy and concurrent BSO (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91-0.95 and HR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.96, respectively). Compared to nonhysterectomized women, significant risks were observed for thyroid cancer (HR 1.76, 95% CI 1.45-2.14). For both hysterectomy and hysterectomy with BSO, an association with brain cancer was observed (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.32-1.65 and HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.15-1.83, respectively). Hysterectomy, with or without BSO, was not associated with breast, lung or gastrointestinal cancer. We conclude that hysterectomy on benign indications is associated with an increased risk for thyroid and brain cancer later in life. Further research efforts are needed to identify patient groups at risk of malignancy following hysterectomy. © 2016 UICC.

  7. Acorn mast drives long-term dynamics of rodent and songbird populations.

    PubMed

    Clotfelter, Ethan D; Pedersen, Amy B; Cranford, Jack A; Ram, Nilam; Snajdr, Eric A; Nolan, Val; Ketterson, Ellen D

    2007-12-01

    Resource pulses can have cascading effects on the dynamics of multiple trophic levels. Acorn mast is a pulsed resource in oak-dominated forests that has significant direct effects on acorn predators and indirect effects on their predators, prey, and pathogens. We evaluated changes in acorn mast, rodent abundance, raptor abundance, and reproductive success of a ground-nesting songbird over a 24-year period (1980-2004) in the southern Appalachian Mountains in an effort to determine the relationships among the four trophic levels. In particular, we examined the following: acorn mast from red oaks (Quercus rubra) and white oaks (Q. alba), abundance of white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) and deer mice (P. maniculatus), population estimates of seven raptor species from three feeding guilds, and nest failure and number of juveniles of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). Finally, we recorded seasonal temperature and precipitation to determine the effects of weather on each trophic level. We found that weather patterns had delayed effects of up to 3 years on these trophic interactions. Variation in acorn mast, the keystone resource in this community, was explained by weather conditions as far back as 2 years before the mast event. Acorn mast, in turn, was a strongly positive predictor of rodent abundance the following year, whereas spring and summer temperature and raptor abundance negatively affected rodent abundance. Dark-eyed junco nests were more likely to fail in years in which there were more rodents and raptors. Nest failure rate was a strong predictor of the number of juvenile juncos caught at the end of the summer. Our results improve our understanding of the complex ecological interactions in oak-dominated forests by illustrating the importance of abiotic and biotic factors at different trophic levels.

  8. Long-Term Prediction of the Demand of Colonoscopies Generated by a Population-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening Program

    PubMed Central

    Mendivil, Joan; Andreu, Montserrat; Hernández, Cristina; Castells, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term need for colonoscopies after a positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) and post-polypectomy surveillance in the context of a population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the process of CRC screening and post-polypectomy surveillance following European guidelines in a population of 100,000 men and women aged 50–69 years over a 20-year period. Screening consisted of biennial FIT and colonoscopy in participants with positive results. The model was mainly fed using data from the first and second rounds of a Spanish program (2010–2013). Data on post-polypectomy surveillance results were obtained from the literature. A probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analysis was performed on the effect of participation, FIT positivity, and adherence to surveillance colonoscopies. The main outcome variables were the number of colonoscopies after a positive FIT, surveillance colonoscopies, and the overall number of colonoscopies. Results An average yearly number of 1,200 colonoscopies after a positive FIT were predicted per 100,000 inhabitants with a slight increase to 1,400 at the end of the 20-year period. Surveillance colonoscopies increased to an average of 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants in the long-term, showing certain stabilization in the last years of the 20-year simulation horizon. The results were highly sensitive to FIT positivity. Conclusions Implementing a population-based CRC screening program will increase the demand for colonoscopies, which is expected to double in 20 years, mainly due to an increase in surveillance colonoscopies. PMID:27732635

  9. Short-Term and Long-Term Biological Effects of Chronic Chemical Contamination on Natural Populations of a Marine Bivalve

    PubMed Central

    Graber, Marianne; Murillo, Laurence; Becquet, Vanessa; Churlaud, Carine; Fruitier-Arnaudin, Ingrid; Huet, Valérie; Lacroix, Camille; Pante, Eric; Le Floch, Stéphane; Thomas-Guyon, Hélène

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the effects of chronic chemical contamination on natural populations of marine organisms is complex due to the combined effects of different types of pollutants and environmental parameters that can modulate the physiological responses to stress. Here, we present the effects of a chronic contamination in a marine bivalve by combining multiple approaches that provide information on individual and population health. We sampled variegated scallops (Mimachlamys varia) at sites characterized by different contaminants and contamination levels to study the short and long-term (intergenerational) responses of this species to physiological stress. We used biomarkers (SOD, MDA, GST, laccase, citrate synthase and phosphatases) as indicators of oxidative stress, immune system alteration, mitochondrial respiration and general metabolism, and measured population genetic diversity at each site. In parallel, concentration of 14 trace metals and 45 organic contaminants (PAHs, PCBs, pesticides) in tissues were measured. Scallops were collected outside and during their reproductive season to investigate temporal variability in contaminant and biomarker levels. Our analyses revealed that the levels of two biomarkers (Laccase-type phenoloxidase and malondialdehyde) were significantly correlated with Cd concentration. Additionally, we observed significant seasonal differences for four of the five biomarkers, which is likely due to the scallop reproductive status at time of sampling. As a source of concern, a location that was identified as a reference site on the basis of inorganic contaminant levels presented the same level of some persistent organic pollutants (DDT and its metabolites) than more impacted sites. Finally, potential long-term effects of heavy metal contamination were observed for variegated scallops as genetic diversity was depressed in the most polluted sites. PMID:26938082

  10. Long-term occupancy trends in a data-poor dugong population in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago.

    PubMed

    D'Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50 years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959-2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010-2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting.

  11. Long-Term Occupancy Trends in a Data-Poor Dugong Population in the Andaman and Nicobar Archipelago

    PubMed Central

    D’Souza, Elrika; Patankar, Vardhan; Arthur, Rohan; Alcoverro, Teresa; Kelkar, Nachiket

    2013-01-01

    Prioritizing efforts for conserving rare and threatened species with limited past data and lacking population estimates is predicated on robust assessments of their occupancy rates. This is particularly challenging for elusive, long-lived and wide-ranging marine mammals. In this paper we estimate trends in long-term (over 50years) occupancy, persistence and extinction of a vulnerable and data-poor dugong (Dugong dugon) population across multiple seagrass meadows in the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago (India). For this we use hierarchical Bayesian dynamic occupancy models accounting for false negatives (detection probability<1), persistence and extinction, to two datasets: a) fragmentary long-term occurrence records from multiple sources (1959–2004, n = 40 locations), and b) systematic detection/non-detection data from current surveys (2010–2012, n = 57). Dugong occupancy across the archipelago declined by 60% (from 0.45 to 0.18) over the last 20 years and present distribution was largely restricted to sheltered bays and channels with seagrass meadows dominated by Halophila and Halodule sp. Dugongs were not found in patchy meadows with low seagrass cover. In general, seagrass habitat availability was not limiting for dugong occupancy, suggesting that anthropogenic factors such as entanglement in gillnets and direct hunting may have led to local extinction of dugongs from locations where extensive seagrass meadows still thrive. Effective management of these remnant dugong populations will require a multi-pronged approach, involving 1) protection of areas where dugongs still persist, 2) monitoring of seagrass habitats that dugongs could recolonize, 3) reducing gillnet use in areas used by dugongs, and 4) engaging with indigenous/settler communities to reduce impacts of hunting. PMID:24143180

  12. Long-term outcome in young women with breast cancer: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Fredholm, Hanna; Magnusson, Kristina; Lindström, Linda S; Garmo, Hans; Fält, Sonja Eaker; Lindman, Henrik; Bergh, Jonas; Holmberg, Lars; Pontén, Fredrik; Frisell, Jan; Fredriksson, Irma

    2016-11-01

    Whether young age at diagnosis of breast cancer is an independent risk factor for death remains controversial, and the question whether young age should be considered in treatment decisions is still to be answered. From a population-based cohort of 22,017 women with breast cancer, all women <35 years (n = 471) were compared to a random sample of 700 women aged 35-69 years from the same cohort. Information on patient and tumor characteristics, treatment, and follow-up was collected from the medical records. Tissue microarrays were produced for analysis of classical biomarkers. Breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS), distant disease-free survival (DDFS), and locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) by age were compared using women 50-69 years as reference. At 10 years follow-up, women <35 years and 35-39 years had a worse BCSS [age <35 years 69 % (HR 2.75, 95 % CI 1.93-3.94), age 35-39 years 76 % (HR 2.33, 95 % CI 1.54-3.52), age 40-49 years 84 % (HR 1.53, 95 % CI 0.97-2.39), and age 50-69 years 89 % (reference)]. The worse BCSS was statistically significant in stages I-IIa and Luminal B tumors. At multivariate analysis age <35 years and 35-39 years confined a risk in LRFS (HR 2.13, 95 % CI 1.21-3.76 and HR 1.97, 95 % CI 1.06-3.68) but not in DDFS and BCSS. In the subgroup of women <40 years with luminal tumors stage I-IIa, low age remained an independent risk factor also in DDFS (HR 1.87, 95 % CI 1.03-3.44). Young women have a high risk of systemic disease even when diagnosed in an early stage. The excess risk of relapse is most pronounced in Luminal B tumors, where low age is an independent prognostic factor of DDFS and LRFS.

  13. Effects of crop rotation and reduced nitrogen fertilisation on Apera spica-venti populations in a long-term experiment.

    PubMed

    Schulz, A; Pallurt, B; Gerowitt, B

    2011-01-01

    Apera spica-venti is one of the most serious annual grass weeds in Germany and may cause considerably yield losses in untreated fields. A long-term field experiment was conducted investigating the effects of crop rotation and nitrogen fertiliser use on A. spica-venti populations. A six-field cash-crop rotation with 67% winter cereals and a six-field fodder crop rotation with 50% winter cereals were studied. The rate of tillering was in the fodder crop rotation significantly higher than in the cash crop rotation. The halving of nitrogen fertilizer dose caused a significant increase in the tillering rate. Most plants of A. spica-venti emerged in winter wheat. There was an increase of emerged A. spica-venti in winter wheat from year to year.

  14. Long-term school outcomes for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: a population-based perspective.

    PubMed

    Barbaresi, William J; Katusic, Slavica K; Colligan, Robert C; Weaver, Amy L; Jacobsen, Steven J

    2007-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare long-term school outcomes (academic achievement in reading, absenteeism, grade retention, and school dropout) for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (AD/HD) versus those without AD/HD. Subjects included 370 children with research-identified AD/HD from a 1976-1982 population-based birth cohort (N = 5718) and 740 non-AD/HD control subjects from the same birth cohort, matched by gender and age. All subjects were retrospectively followed from birth until a median age of 18.4 years (AD/HD cases) or 18.3 years (non-AD/HD controls). The complete school record for each subject was reviewed to obtain information on reading achievement (last available California Achievement Test reading score), absenteeism (number/percentage of school days absent at each grade level), grade retention (having to repeat an entire grade in the subsequent school year), and school dropout (failure to graduate from high school). Median reading achievement scores at age 12.8 years (expressed as a national percentile) were significantly different for AD/HD cases and non-AD/HD controls (45 vs 73). Results were similar for both boys and girls with AD/HD. Median percentage of days absent was statistically significantly higher for children with AD/HD versus those without AD/HD, although the difference was relatively small in absolute number of days absent. Subjects with AD/HD were three times more likely to be retained a grade. Similarly, subjects with AD/HD were 2.7 times more likely to drop out before high school graduation (22.9%) than non-AD/HD controls (10.0%). The results of this population-based study clearly demonstrate the association between AD/HD and poor long-term school outcomes.

  15. Burn Injury Leads to Increased Long-Term Susceptibility to Respiratory Infection in both Mouse Models and Population Studies.

    PubMed

    Fear, Vanessa S; Boyd, James H; Rea, Suzanne; Wood, Fiona M; Duke, Janine M; Fear, Mark W

    2017-01-01

    Burn injury initiates an acute inflammatory response that subsequently drives wound repair. However, acute disruption to the immune response is also common, leading to susceptibility to sepsis and increased morbidity and mortality. Despite increased understanding of the impact of burn injury on the immune system in the acute phase, little is known about long-term consequences of burn injury on immune function. This study was established to determine whether burn injury has long-term clinical impacts on patients' immune responses. Using a population-based retrospective longitudinal study and linked hospital morbidity and death data from Western Australia, comparative rates of hospitalisation for respiratory infections in burn patients and a non-injured comparator cohort were assessed. In addition, a mouse model of non-severe burn injury was also used in which viral respiratory infection was induced at 4 weeks post-injury using a mouse modified version of the Influenza A virus (H3NN; A/mem/71-a). The burn injured cohort contained 14893 adult patients from 1980-2012 after removal of those patients with evidence of smoke inhalation or injury to the respiratory tract. During the study follow-up study a total of 2,884 and 2,625 respiratory infection hospital admissions for the burn and uninjured cohorts, respectively, were identified. After adjusting for covariates, the burn cohort experienced significantly elevated admission rates for influenza and viral pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 1.73, 1.27-2.36), bacterial pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 2.05, 1.85-2.27) and for other types of upper and lower respiratory infections (IRR, 95% CI: 2.38, 2.09-2.71). In the mouse study an increased viral titre was observed after burn injury, accompanied by a reduced CD8 response and increased NK and NKT cells in the draining lymph nodes. This data suggests burn patients are at long-term increased risk of infection due to sustained modulation of the immune response.

  16. Burn Injury Leads to Increased Long-Term Susceptibility to Respiratory Infection in both Mouse Models and Population Studies

    PubMed Central

    Fear, Vanessa S.; Boyd, James H.; Rea, Suzanne; Wood, Fiona M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Burn injury initiates an acute inflammatory response that subsequently drives wound repair. However, acute disruption to the immune response is also common, leading to susceptibility to sepsis and increased morbidity and mortality. Despite increased understanding of the impact of burn injury on the immune system in the acute phase, little is known about long-term consequences of burn injury on immune function. This study was established to determine whether burn injury has long-term clinical impacts on patients’ immune responses. Methods Using a population-based retrospective longitudinal study and linked hospital morbidity and death data from Western Australia, comparative rates of hospitalisation for respiratory infections in burn patients and a non-injured comparator cohort were assessed. In addition, a mouse model of non-severe burn injury was also used in which viral respiratory infection was induced at 4 weeks post-injury using a mouse modified version of the Influenza A virus (H3NN; A/mem/71-a). Results and conclusions The burn injured cohort contained 14893 adult patients from 1980–2012 after removal of those patients with evidence of smoke inhalation or injury to the respiratory tract. During the study follow-up study a total of 2,884 and 2,625 respiratory infection hospital admissions for the burn and uninjured cohorts, respectively, were identified. After adjusting for covariates, the burn cohort experienced significantly elevated admission rates for influenza and viral pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 1.73, 1.27–2.36), bacterial pneumonia (IRR, 95%CI: 2.05, 1.85–2.27) and for other types of upper and lower respiratory infections (IRR, 95% CI: 2.38, 2.09–2.71). In the mouse study an increased viral titre was observed after burn injury, accompanied by a reduced CD8 response and increased NK and NKT cells in the draining lymph nodes. This data suggests burn patients are at long-term increased risk of infection due to sustained modulation of the

  17. Incorporating landscape stochasticity into population viability analysis.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; Wintle, Brendan A

    2007-03-01

    The importance of incorporating landscape dynamics into population viability analysis (PVA) has previously been acknowledged, but the need to repeat the landscape generation process to encapsulate landscape stochasticity in model outputs has largely been overlooked. Reasons for this are that (1) there is presently no means for quantifying the relative effects of landscape stochasticity and population stochasticity on model outputs, and therefore no means for determining how to allocate simulation time optimally between the two; and (2) the process of generating multiple landscapes to incorporate landscape stochasticity is tedious and user-intensive with current PVA software. Here we demonstrate that landscape stochasticity can be an important source of variance in model outputs. We solve the technical problems with incorporating landscape stochasticity by deriving a formula that gives the optimal ratio of population simulations to landscape simulations for a given model, and by providing a computer program that incorporates the formula and automates multiple landscape generation in a dynamic landscape metapopulation (DLMP) model. Using a case study of a bird population, we produce estimates of DLMP model output parameters that are up to four times more precise than those estimated from a single landscape in the same amount of total simulation time. We use the DLMP modeling software RAMAS Landscape to run the landscape and metapopulation models, though our method is general and could be applied to any PVA platform. The results of this study should motivate DLMP modelers to consider landscape stochasticity in their analyses.

  18. Population pharmacokinetic model of THC integrates oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dosing and characterizes short- and long-term pharmacokinetics.

    PubMed

    Heuberger, Jules A A C; Guan, Zheng; Oyetayo, Olubukayo-Opeyemi; Klumpers, Linda; Morrison, Paul D; Beumer, Tim L; van Gerven, Joop M A; Cohen, Adam F; Freijer, Jan

    2015-02-01

    Δ(9)-Tetrahydrocannobinol (THC), the main psychoactive compound of Cannabis, is known to have a long terminal half-life. However, this characteristic is often ignored in pharmacokinetic (PK) studies of THC, which may affect the accuracy of predictions in different pharmacologic areas. For therapeutic use for example, it is important to accurately describe the terminal phase of THC to describe accumulation of the drug. In early clinical research, the THC challenge test can be optimized through more accurate predictions of the dosing sequence and the wash-out between occasions in a crossover setting, which is mainly determined by the terminal half-life of the compound. The purpose of this study is to better quantify the long-term pharmacokinetics of THC. A population-based PK model for THC was developed describing the profile up to 48 h after an oral, intravenous, and pulmonary dose of THC in humans. In contrast to earlier models, the current model integrates all three major administration routes and covers the long terminal phase of THC. Results show that THC has a fast initial and intermediate half-life, while the apparent terminal half-life is long (21.5 h), with a clearance of 38.8 L/h. Because the current model characterizes the long-term pharmacokinetics, it can be used to assess the accumulation of THC in a multiple-dose setting and to forecast concentration profiles of the drug under many different dosing regimens or administration routes. Additionally, this model could provide helpful insights into the THC challenge test used for the development of (novel) compounds targeting the cannabinoid system for different therapeutic applications and could improve decision making in future clinical trials.

  19. Long-term effects of fungicides on leaf-associated microorganisms and shredder populations-an artificial stream study.

    PubMed

    Zubrod, Jochen P; Englert, Dominic; Wolfram, Jakob; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Feckler, Alexander; Bundschuh, Rebecca; Seitz, Frank; Konschak, Marco; Baudy, Patrick; Lüderwald, Simon; Fink, Patrick; Lorke, Andreas; Schulz, Ralf; Bundschuh, Mirco

    2017-02-04

    Leaf litter is a major source of carbon and energy for stream food webs, while both leaf-decomposing microorganisms and macroinvertebrate leaf shredders can be affected by fungicides. Despite the potential for season-long fungicide exposure for these organisms, however, such chronic exposures have not yet been considered. Using an artificial stream facility, effects of a chronic (lasting up to 8 wk) exposure to a mixture of 5 fungicides (sum concentration 20 μg/L) on leaf-associated microorganisms and the key leaf shredder Gammarus fossarum were therefore assessed. While bacterial density and microorganism-mediated leaf decomposition remained unaltered, fungicide exposure reduced fungal biomass (≤71%) on leaves from day 28 onward. Gammarids responded to the combined stress from consumption of fungicide-affected leaves and waterborne exposure with a reduced abundance (≤18%), which triggered reductions in final population biomass (18%) and in the number of precopula pairs (≤22%) but could not fully explain the decreased leaf consumption (19%), lipid content (≤43%; going along with an altered composition of fatty acids), and juvenile production (35%). In contrast, fine particulate organic matter production and stream respiration were unaffected. Our results imply that long-term exposure of leaf-associated fungi and shredders toward fungicides may result in detrimental implications in stream food webs and impairments of detrital material fluxes. These findings render it important to understand decomposer communities' long-term adaptational capabilities to ensure that functional integrity is safeguarded. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;9999:1-12. © 2017 SETAC.

  20. Long-term Prairie Falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, K.; Kochert, M.N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, R.N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons (Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsend's ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 1990s, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  1. Long-term prairie falcon population changes in relation to prey abundance, weather, land uses, and habitat conditions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; Carpenter, L.B.; Lehman, Robert N.

    1999-01-01

    We studied a nesting population of Prairie Falcons( Falco mexicanus) in the Snake River Birds of Prey National Conservation Area (NCA) from 1974-1997 to identify factors that influence abundance and reproduction. Our sampling period included two major droughts and associated crashes in Townsenda??s ground squirrel (Spermophilus townsendii) populations. The number of Prairie Falcon pairs found on long-term survey segments declined significantly from 1976-1997. Early declines were most severe at the eastern end of the NCA, where fires and agriculture have changed native shrubsteppe habitat. More recent declines occurred in the portion of canyon near the Orchard Training Area (OTA), where the Idaho Army National Guard conducts artillery firing and tank maneuvers. Overall Prairie Falcon reproductive rates were tied closely to annual indexes of ground squirrel abundance, but precipitation before and during the breeding season was related inversely to some measures of reproduction. Most reproductive parameters showed no significant trends over time, but during the 199Os, nesting success and productivity were lower in the stretch of canyon near the OTA than in adjacent areas. Extensive shrub loss, by itself, did not explain the pattern of declines in abundance and reproduction that we observed. Recent military training activities likely have interacted with fire and livestock grazing to create less than favorable foraging opportunities for Prairie Falcons in a large part of the NCA. To maintain Prairie Falcon populations in the NCA, managers should suppress wildfires, restore native plant communities, and regulate potentially incompatible land uses.

  2. Metabolic syndrome predicts long-term mortality in subjects without established diabetes mellitus in asymptomatic Korean population

    PubMed Central

    Won, Ki-Bum; Chang, Hyuk-Jae; Han, Donghee; Sung, Jidong; Choi, Su-Yeon

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Despite the different features of diabetes mellitus (DM) in Asian populations compared with Western populations, the impact of metabolic syndrome (MetS) on long-term mortality according to DM status has not yet been elucidated in the Asian population. After performing 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) using clinical variables including age, gender, smoking, and individual MetS components between DM and non-DM subjects from the data of the Korea Initiatives on Coronary Artery Calcification registry, mortality was evaluated according to DM and MetS in 14,956 asymptomatic Korean subjects. The mean follow-up duration was 53.1 months (interquartile range: 33–80). The overall prevalence of MetS was 60%. DM subjects had higher mortality compared with non-DM subjects (1.2% vs 0.7%, respectively; P = 0.001); the cumulative mortality by Kaplan–Meier analysis was higher in DM subjects than in non-DM subjects (log-rank P = 0.001). DM increased the risk of mortality in PSM participants (hazard ratio [HR] 1.74; P = 0.001). In non-DM subjects, MetS (HR 2.32) and one of its components, central obesity (HR 1.97), were associated with an increased risk of mortality (both P < 0.05). In contrast, there was no significant difference in the risk of mortality according to MetS or its components in DM subjects. After adjusting for confounding risk factors, it was shown that MetS independently increased the risk of mortality in non-DM subjects. Compared with non-DM subjects, DM subjects have an increased risk of long-term mortality among PSM participants. MetS appears to have an independent impact on mortality in subjects without established DM among the asymptomatic Korean population. Our results may not be applicable to the whole subjects with MetS because the PSM using MetS components was performed between subjects with and without DM which was very high risk for adverse clinical events. PMID:27930521

  3. Long-term outcomes after off-pump or conventional coronary artery bypass grafting within a veteran population.

    PubMed

    Emerson, Dominic A; Hynes, Conor F; Trachiotis, Gregory D

    2015-01-01

    Recently published data indicate that outcomes for off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCABG) may be inferior to conventional CABG (cCABG) within the Veteran population, but this has been only partly addressed within high-volume off-pump centers. Here, we seek to examine the long-term outcomes for these patients within the Veteran population at a single institution well experienced with OPCABG. With the use of a preexisting in-house database, all patients who had undergone isolated CABG from 2000 to 2011 (n = 1125) were identified. From these data, 18 demographic and risk factors were compared and used to create a propensity score, which was used for matching between groups (OPCABG vs cCABG). The primary end point examined was death. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Groups were compared using a Student t test or Fisher exact test, where appropriate. Unmatched OPCABG and cCABG groups were found to have significant differences in risk factors, with the OPCABG being a higher-risk population by ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease status, age, and renal function, among others (all P < 0.05). Kaplan-Meier analysis of the unmatched groups demonstrated an increased mortality rate within the higher-risk OPCABG group (P = 0.0002). With the use of propensity score matching, 337 OPCABG patients were then matched to 337 cCABG controls. Comparison of demographic and risk factors between these matched groups did not demonstrate any statistically significant difference. When Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed for the matched groups, there was no statistically significant difference in survival. In addition, in the matched data set, OPCABG patients had a shorter average length of stay (8.2 vs 9.7 days, P = 0.022), shorter operative time (205 vs 270 minutes, P < 0.001), and lower rate of bleeding complications (0.9% vs 3.6%, P = 0.032). In this high-volume off-pump center, matched OPCABG survival is similar to c

  4. Genetic evidence for long-term population decline in a savannah-dwelling primate: inferences from a hierarchical bayesian model.

    PubMed

    Storz, Jay F; Beaumont, Mark A; Alberts, Susan C

    2002-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to test for evidence that savannah baboons (Papio cynocephalus) underwent a population expansion in concert with a hypothesized expansion of African human and chimpanzee populations during the late Pleistocene. The rationale is that any type of environmental event sufficient to cause simultaneous population expansions in African humans and chimpanzees would also be expected to affect other codistributed mammals. To test for genetic evidence of population expansion or contraction, we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus microsatellite data using a hierarchical Bayesian model. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations were used to estimate the posterior probability density of demographic and genealogical parameters. The model was designed to allow interlocus variation in mutational and demographic parameters, which made it possible to detect aberrant patterns of variation at individual loci that could result from heterogeneity in mutational dynamics or from the effects of selection at linked sites. Results of the MCMC simulations were consistent with zero variance in demographic parameters among loci, but there was evidence for a 10- to 20-fold difference in mutation rate between the most slowly and most rapidly evolving loci. Results of the model provided strong evidence that savannah baboons have undergone a long-term historical decline in population size. The mode of the highest posterior density for the joint distribution of current and ancestral population size indicated a roughly eightfold contraction over the past 1,000 to 250,000 years. These results indicate that savannah baboons apparently did not share a common demographic history with other codistributed primate species.

  5. Educational attainment among long-term survivors of cancer in childhood and adolescence: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ghaderi, Sara; Engeland, Anders; Gunnes, Maria Winther; Moster, Dag; Ruud, Ellen; Syse, Astri; Wesenberg, Finn; Bjørge, Tone

    2016-02-01

    The number of young cancer survivors has increased over the past few decades due to improvement in treatment regimens, and understanding of long-term effects among the survivors has become even more important. Educational achievements and choice of educational fields were explored here. Five-year cancer survivors born in Norway during 1965-1985 (diagnosed <19 years) were included in our analysis by linking Norwegian population-based registries. Cox regression was applied to study the educational attainment among survivors of central nervous system (CNS) tumours, those assumed to have received CNS-directed therapy, and other cancer survivors relative to the cancer-free population. Logistic regression was used to compare the choice of educational fields between the cancer survivors at undergraduate and graduate level and the cancer-free population. Overall, a lower proportion of the cancer survivors completed intermediate (67 vs. 70 %), undergraduate (31 vs. 35 %) and graduate education (7 vs. 9 %) compared with the cancer-free population. Deficits in completion of an educational level were mainly observed among survivors of CNS-tumours and those assumed to have received CNS-directed therapy. Choices of educational fields among cancer survivors were in general similar with the cancer-free population at both undergraduate and graduate levels. Survivors of CNS-tumours and those assumed to have received CNS-directed therapy were at increased risk for educational impairments compared with the cancer-free population. Choices of educational fields were in general similar. Careful follow-up of the survivors of CNS-tumours and those assumed to have received CNS-directed therapy is important at each level of education.

  6. Long-term population survey of the Sulawesi black macaques (Macaca nigra) at Tangkoko Nature Reserve, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Kyes, Randall C; Iskandar, Entang; Onibala, Jane; Paputungan, Umar; Laatung, Sylvia; Huettmann, Falk

    2013-01-01

    The Sulawesi black macaque (Macaca nigra) population at Tangkoko Nature Reserve in North Sulawesi, Indonesia has been the focus of periodic study for over 30 years. The population has shown considerable decline during much of that time. Here we present the results of a long-term population survey of the Tangkoko M. nigra, conducted over the past decade, to provide updated information and on-going assessment of the population. Line-transect sampling was conducted annually from 1999 to 2002 and 2005 to 2011 along the same transect during a 2- to 3-week survey period. Although further decline in the population was observed at the outset of the survey, over the subsequent 12-year period we have seen stability in the population parameters with evidence of modest increases in both group and population density. During the 1999-2002 survey periods, there was a mean group density of 3.6 groups/km(2) and a mean population density of 39.8 individuals/km(2) . During 2005-2011, mean group density increased to 3.8 groups/km(2) and mean population density was 51.4 individuals/km(2) . The 2011 survey data indicated an estimated group density of 4.3 groups/km(2) and a population density of 61.5 individuals/km(2) . Given that our transect was located in the core of the Tangkoko reserve, our density estimates should be limited to that area of the reserve. One explanation for the apparent stabilization of the population may be tied to the increasing and sustained number of training and research programs being conducted at the reserve. This collective effort by local and international groups may be helping to reduce illegal activity in the reserve (i.e., hunting and habitat destruction) and generate greater awareness of this critically endangered species. Without the continued vigilance afforded by the existing research and training programs and the support and involvement of the local people, the M. nigra at the Tangkoko Nature Reserve will likely face further decline.

  7. The association between alcohol use and long-term care placement among older Canadians: A 14-year population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Kaplan, Mark S.; Huguet, Nathalie; Feeny, David; McFarland, Bentson H.; Caetano, Raul; Bernier, Julie; Giesbrecht, Norman; Oliver, Lisa; Ramage-Morin, Pamela; Ross, Nancy A.

    2013-01-01

    Studies have shown that moderate alcohol use confers protection against some of the dominant predictors of long-term care placement, including diminished cognitive functioning, physical disability, and injury. But little is known about the association between alcohol use and the likelihood of placement in long-term care facilities. A nationally representative sample of 5,404 community-dwelling Canadians ages 50 years and older at baseline (1994/95) was obtained from the longitudinal National Population Health Survey. Alcohol use categories were developed based on the quantity and frequency of use in the 12 months before the interview. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between alcohol use at baseline and subsequent placement in long-term care facilities after adjusting for covariates measured at baseline. During the 14-year follow-up period, 14% of lifetime abstainers, 10% of former drinkers, 7% of infrequent drinkers, 4% of moderate drinkers, and 3% of heavy drinkers were placed in long-term care facilities. Furthermore, the multivariate analysis revealed that abstainers, former drinkers, and infrequent drinkers were more than twice as likely to be placed in long-term care as moderate drinkers. Moderate drinking was protective against placement in long-term care facilities even after adjusting for an array of well-known confounders. The strong protective effect of moderate alcohol use on long-term care entry is likely due to a complex mix of physical, cognitive and psychosocial health factors. PMID:24169370

  8. [Research on the relationship between populations' long-term exposure to fluoride in drinking water and bone fracture in China].

    PubMed

    Liang, C; Ji, R; Cao, J; Cheng, X

    2001-09-01

    There are contradictory reports on the prevalence of bone fractures associated with long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water. The prevalence of bone fracture in six rural areas of China and the exposure of fluoride in drinking water was investigated. The data including medical history and demographic information, bone fractures, fluoride content in drinking water, physical activity, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and dietary intakes were collected. A retrospective epidemiological study by using the same design, method, quality control and the same questionnaire was conducted. A total of 8266 male and female over 50 years of age were divided into 6 groups by the fluoride concentrations in drinking water. The subjects in each group exposed to different levels of fluoride (0.25-0.34, 0.58-0.73, 1.00-1.06, 1.45-2.19, 2.62-3.58 and 4.32-7.97 mg/L) were 1363, 1407, 1370, 1574, 1051 and 1501 respectively. It has been confirmed that drinking water was the only major source of fluoride exposure in the studied populations. The total bone fracture rates were 7.41%, 6.40%, 5.11%, 6.04%, 6.09% and 7.40% in each group. Natural bone fracture rates in each group were 3.01%, 2.21%, 1.31%, 1.65%, 1.43% and 3.66% respectively. The prevalence of bone fracture and water fluoride level appeared a U-shaped relationship. The prevalence of total bone fracture and natural bone fracture in the population with fluoride 1.00-1.06 mg/L in drinking water was the lowest, compared with the groups exposed to fluoride higher than 4.32 mg/L and lower than 0.73 mg/L. The highest prevalence of hip fracture was in the group with higher water fluoride (4.32-7.97 mg/L) exposure. In general, the prevalence of hip fracture was lower and stable up to 1.06 mg/L of fluoride in drinking water, and then it appeared to rise. Based on the data collected in this investigation, it is concluded that the long-term fluoride exposure from drinking water higher than 4.32 mg/L might increase the risk of

  9. Long-term urethral catheterisation.

    PubMed

    Turner, Bruce; Dickens, Nicola

    This article discusses long-term urethral catheterisation, focusing on the relevant anatomy and physiology, indications for the procedure, catheter selection and catheter care. It is important that nurses have a good working knowledge of long-term catheterisation as the need for this intervention will increase with the rise in chronic health conditions and the ageing population.

  10. Cause-specific long-term mortality in survivors of childhood cancer in Switzerland: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Schindler, Matthias; Spycher, Ben D; Ammann, Roland A; Ansari, Marc; Michel, Gisela; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2016-07-15

    Survivors of childhood cancer have a higher mortality than the general population. We describe cause-specific long-term mortality in a population-based cohort of childhood cancer survivors. We included all children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland (1976-2007) at age 0-14 years, who survived ≥5 years after diagnosis and followed survivors until December 31, 2012. We obtained causes of death (COD) from the Swiss mortality statistics and used data from the Swiss general population to calculate age-, calendar year-, and sex-standardized mortality ratios (SMR), and absolute excess risks (AER) for different COD, by Poisson regression. We included 3,965 survivors and 49,704 person years at risk. Of these, 246 (6.2%) died, which was 11 times higher than expected (SMR 11.0). Mortality was particularly high for diseases of the respiratory (SMR 14.8) and circulatory system (SMR 12.7), and for second cancers (SMR 11.6). The pattern of cause-specific mortality differed by primary cancer diagnosis, and changed with time since diagnosis. In the first 10 years after 5-year survival, 78.9% of excess deaths were caused by recurrence of the original cancer (AER 46.1). Twenty-five years after diagnosis, only 36.5% (AER 9.1) were caused by recurrence, 21.3% by second cancers (AER 5.3) and 33.3% by circulatory diseases (AER 8.3). Our study confirms an elevated mortality in survivors of childhood cancer for at least 30 years after diagnosis with an increased proportion of deaths caused by late toxicities of the treatment. The results underline the importance of clinical follow-up continuing years after the end of treatment for childhood cancer. © 2016 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

  11. Long-term survival after traumatic brain injury: a population-based analysis controlled for nonhead trauma.

    PubMed

    Brown, Allen W; Leibson, Cynthia L; Mandrekar, Jay; Ransom, Jeanine E; Malec, James F

    2014-01-01

    To examine the contribution of co-occurring nonhead injuries to hazard of death after traumatic brain injury (TBI). A random sample of Olmsted County, Minnesota, residents with confirmed TBI from 1987 through 1999 was identified. Each case was assigned an age- and sex-matched, non-TBI "regular control" from the population. For "special cases" with accompanying nonhead injuries, 2 matched "special controls" with nonhead injuries of similar severity were assigned. Vital status was followed from baseline (ie, injury date for cases, comparable dates for controls) through 2008. Cases were compared first with regular controls and second with regular or special controls, depending on case type. In total, 1257 cases were identified (including 221 special cases). For both cases versus regular controls and cases versus regular or special controls, the hazard ratio was increased from baseline to 6 months (10.82 [2.86-40.89] and 7.13 [3.10-16.39], respectively) and from baseline through study end (2.92 [1.74-4.91] and 1.48 [1.09-2.02], respectively). Among 6-month survivors, the hazard ratio was increased for cases versus regular controls (1.43 [1.06-2.15]) but not for cases versus regular or special controls (1.05 [0.80-1.38]). Among 6-month survivors, accounting for nonhead injuries resulted in a nonsignificant effect of TBI on long-term mortality.

  12. Increased long-term risk of hearing loss in patients with traumatic brain injury: A nationwide population-based study.

    PubMed

    Shangkuan, Wei-Chuan; Lin, Hung-Che; Shih, Cheng-Ping; Cheng, Chun-An; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Chung, Chi-Hsiang; Lin, Fu-Huang; Tsao, Chang-Huei; Chien, Wu-Chien

    2017-03-21

    We investigated incidences of hearing loss among patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) to evaluate whether they had a higher risk of hearing loss than the general population. Cohort study. Inpatient data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010 were recorded. Patients with TBI and a retrospective comparison cohort were analyzed. Each subject was individually traced from their index date to identify subjects who subsequently received a diagnosis of hearing loss. Cox regression analyses were applied to determine the risk of TBI-related hearing loss. Follow-up data from the TBI and comparison cohorts were collected over 10 years for 553,286 and 1,106,572 patients, respectively. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that TBI significantly increased the risk of hearing loss (adjusted hazard ratio = 2.125, 95% confidence interval = 2.045-2.546, P = .027). In our subgroup analyses by type of injury, patients with TBI due to traffic injury had the highest associated risk of hearing loss compared with the risk of non-TBI traffic injury patients, followed by patients with crushing/cutting/piercing injuries and falls. Our study shows that TBI led to a higher risk of long-term hearing loss. Traffic injuries were the most common injury related to hearing loss. Prevention, rather than treatment, may be the best policy for preventing hearing loss. 2b Laryngoscope, 2017. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  13. Gaps in understanding health and engagement with healthcare providers across common long-term conditions: a population survey of health literacy in 29 473 Danish citizens

    PubMed Central

    Friis, Karina; Lasgaard, Mathias; Osborne, Richard H; Maindal, Helle T

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To (1) quantify levels of subjective health literacy in people with long-term health conditions (diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, musculoskeletal disorders, cancer and mental disorders) and compare these to levels in the general population and (2) examine the association between health literacy, socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidity in each long-term condition group. Design Population-based survey in the Central Denmark Region (n=29 473). Main outcome measures Health literacy was measured using two scales from the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ): (1) Ability to understand health information and (2) Ability to actively engage with healthcare providers. Results People with long-term conditions reported more difficulties than the general population in understanding health information and actively engaging with healthcare providers. Wide variation was found between disease groups, with people with cancer having fewer difficulties and people with mental health disorders having more difficulties in actively engaging with healthcare providers than other long-term condition groups. Having more than one long-term condition was associated with more difficulty in engaging with healthcare providers and understanding health information. People with low levels of education had lower health literacy than people with high levels of education. Conclusions Compared with the general population, people with long-term conditions report more difficulties in understanding health information and engaging with healthcare providers. These two dimensions are critical to the provision of patient-centred healthcare and for optimising health outcomes. More effort should be made to respond to the health literacy needs among individuals with long-term conditions, multiple comorbidities and low education levels, to improve health outcomes and to reduce social inequality in health. PMID:26769783

  14. Long-time behavior of a stochastic epidemic model with varying population size

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Fengying; Liu, Jiamin

    2017-03-01

    In this paper we investigate the persistence and extinction of a stochastic epidemic model with a varying population environment in the long-term behavior. Our model consists of two stochastic differential equations: one for the susceptible individuals in which the transmission rate is disturbed by white noise, one for the exposed individuals in which the same perturbation occurs, and one ordinary differential equation in which describes the infective individuals in a varying population environment. We derive sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence of the epidemic model depending on the constant contact rate. Moreover, we carry out several numerical simulations to illustrate the main results of this contribution.

  15. Long-Term Data Reveal a Population Decline of the Tropical Lizard Anolis apletophallus, and a Negative Affect of El Nino Years on Population Growth Rate

    PubMed Central

    Stapley, Jessica; Garcia, Milton; Andrews, Robin M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change threatens biodiversity worldwide, however predicting how particular species will respond is difficult because climate varies spatially, complex factors regulate population abundance, and species vary in their susceptibility to climate change. Studies need to incorporate these factors with long-term data in order to link climate change to population abundance. We used 40 years of lizard abundance data and local climate data from Barro Colorado Island to ask how climate, total lizard abundance and cohort-specific abundance have changed over time, and how total and cohort-specific abundance relate to climate variables including those predicted to make the species vulnerable to climate change (i.e. temperatures exceeding preferred body temperature). We documented a decrease in lizard abundance over the last 40 years, and changes in the local climate. Population growth rate was related to the previous years’ southern oscillation index; increasing following cooler-wetter, la niña years, decreasing following warmer-drier, el nino years. Within-year recruitment was negatively related to rainfall and minimum temperature. This study simultaneously identified climatic factors driving long-term population fluctuations and climate variables influencing short-term annual recruitment, both of which may be contributing to the population decline and influence the population’s future persistence. PMID:25671423

  16. Short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on benthic communities and ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations.

    PubMed

    Ragnarsson, Stefán Áki; Thorarinsdóttir, Gudrún G; Gunnarsson, Karl

    2015-08-01

    The short and long-term effects of hydraulic dredging on ocean quahog (Arctica islandica) populations and on non-target organisms were examined in Þistilfjörður Bay, NE Iceland over a five-year period. The overall species richness was low and the fauna was composed of species typical of sandy seabeds characterised by frequent wave-induced disturbances. The initial effects of dredging on the overall benthic community were large. Most taxa were significantly affected by dredging, with abundances sometimes decreasing or increasing by more than 50% immediately after dredging. However, with the exception of the ocean quahog, their recovery was rapid, and most taxa attained similar abundances as in the undisturbed control sediments after three months, and all did so after about a year. The effects of dredging on ocean quahogs were drastic and long-lasting. Of the original ocean quahog biomass before fishing took place, the dredge captured 82%, while a further 11% was lost as a result of mortality due to shell damage and predation. The total direct and indirect loss of ocean quahog biomass within dredged tracks due to fishing was thus 93%. The recovery of ocean quahogs in fished areas was extremely slow. Five years after dredging, the total ocean quahog biomass in tracks had increased from 7% to 26% relative to that in the controls. The proportional increase among ocean quahogs of targeted sizes (>70 mm) was from 2% to 14% over the same period. This study shows that while the longer-term effects of hydraulic dredging on non-target benthic organisms were small, the effects of dredging on ocean quahog densities were drastic, with full recovery expected to take place on decadal time-scales. The impacts of dredging on ocean quahog populations at the scale of the fishery are discussed. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Late symptoms in long-term gynaecological cancer survivors after radiation therapy: a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Lind, H; Waldenström, A-C; Dunberger, G; al-Abany, M; Alevronta, E; Johansson, K-A; Olsson, C; Nyberg, T; Wilderäng, U; Steineck, G; Åvall-Lundqvist, E

    2011-01-01

    Background: We surveyed the occurrence of physical symptoms among long-term gynaecological cancer survivors after pelvic radiation therapy, and compared with population-based control women. Methods: We identified a cohort of 789 eligible gynaecological cancer survivors treated with pelvic radiation therapy alone or combined with surgery in Stockholm or Gothenburg, Sweden. A control group of 478 women was randomly sampled from the Swedish Population Registry. Data were collected through a study-specific validated postal questionnaire with 351 questions concerning gastrointestinal and urinary tract function, lymph oedema, pelvic bones and sexuality. Clinical characteristics and treatment details were retrieved from medical records. Results: Participation rate was 78% for gynaecological cancer survivors and 72% for control women. Median follow-up time after treatment was 74 months. Cancer survivors reported a higher occurrence of symptoms from all organs studied. The highest age-adjusted relative risk (RR) was found for emptying of all stools into clothing without forewarning (RR 12.7), defaecation urgency (RR 5.7), difficulty feeling the need to empty the bladder (RR 2.8), protracted genital pain (RR 5.0), pubic pain when walking indoors (RR 4.9) and erysipelas on abdomen or legs at least once during the past 6 months (RR 3.6). Survivors treated with radiation therapy alone showed in general higher rates of symptoms. Conclusion: Gynaecological cancer survivors previously treated with pelvic radiation report a higher occurrence of symptoms from the urinary and gastrointestinal tract as well as lymph oedema, sexual dysfunction and pelvic pain compared with non-irradiated control women. Health-care providers need to actively ask patients about specific symptoms in order to provide proper diagnostic investigations and management. PMID:21847122

  18. Long-Term Quality of Life in Adult Patients with Strabismus after Corrective Surgery Compared to the General Population

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Meiping; Yu, Huanyun; Chen, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jinling; Zheng, Jingwei; Yu, Xinping

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the status of and factors associated with long-term health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in adult patients with strabismus following corrective surgery. Methods Prospective cross-sectional study. A total of 122 adults who underwent corrective surgery and were followed up for at least 1 year were recruited. Pre- and post-operative HRQOL were evaluated using the Chinese version of the Adult Strabismus 20 (AS-20). Demographics and clinical characteristics were recorded. Eighty-nine age-matched, normal individuals without a history of strabismus were recruited as a control group. Results AS-20 scores improved significantly in the psychosocial subscale and total scale after surgery for all122 patients, but not in the function subscale. HRQOL was better in the successful cases than in the non-successful cases (p<0.005). Subjects who recovered stereo function had better HRQOL than those who did not (p<0.01). Compared to the control population, the patients had poorer HRQOL post-operatively, with only approximately 30% of the subjects having scores within the normal threshold scores. The self-sense of a lack of ocular deviation and a successful surgical outcome were significant factors associated with post-operative HRQOL status. Conclusions HRQOL, as evaluated by AS-20 scores, improved in the patients after surgery but was worse than that in the general population. Successful surgical outcomes and a sense of good alignment were the main factors that correlated with increased post-operative HRQOL. Positive assessments of surgical results by patients may benefit post-operative HRQOL. PMID:27846304

  19. [Study of relationship between arsenic methylation and skin lesion in a population with long-term high arsenic exposure].

    PubMed

    Su, Liqin; Cheng, Yibin; Lin, Shaobin; Wu, Chuanye

    2007-05-01

    To investigate the difference of arsenic metabolism in populations with long-term high arsenic exposure and explore the relationship between arsenic metabolism diversity and skin lesion. 327 residents in an arsenic polluted village were voluntarily enrolled in this study. Questionnaire survey and medical examination were carried out to learn basic information and detect skin lesions. Urinary inorganic and methylated arsenic were speciated by high performance liquid chromatography combined with hydride-generation atomic fluorescence spectrometry. Total arsenic concentration in hair was determined with DDC-Ag method. Hair arsenic content of studied polutions was generally high, but no significant difference were found among the studied four groups. MMA and DMA concentration in urine increased with studied polution age, and were positively related with skin lesion grade. The relative proportion of MMA in serious skin lesion group was significantly higher than in other 3 groups, while DMA/MMA ratio was significantly lower than control and mild group. The relative proportion of MMA was positively related with skin lesion grade, DMA/ MMA ratio was negatively related with skin lesion grade. Males could have higher arsenic cumulation and lower methylation capacity than those of females. The population of above 40 years old may have higher methylation capacity than those of adults below 40yeas old. Smokers and drinkers seemed lower methylation capacity than those of non-smokers and non-drinkers respectively. The methylation of arsenic could affect by several factors, including age gender, smoking and drinking. Arsenic methylation copacity mey be associated with skin lesion induced by arsenic exposure.

  20. Reproductive history patterns and long-term mortality rates: a Danish, population-based record linkage study.

    PubMed

    Coleman, Priscilla K; Reardon, David C; Calhoun, Byron C

    2013-08-01

    Inconsistent definitions and incomplete data have left society largely in the dark regarding mortality risks generally associated with pregnancy and with particular outcomes, immediately after resolution and over the long-term. Population-based record-linkage studies provide an accurate means for deriving maternal mortality rate data. In this Danish population-based study, records of women born between 1962 and 1993 (n = 1,001,266) were examined to identify associations between patterns of pregnancy resolution and mortality rates across 25 years. With statistical controls for number of pregnancies, birth year and age at last pregnancy, the combination of induced abortion(s) and natural loss(es) was associated with more than three times higher mortality rate than only birth(s). Moderate risks were identified with only induced abortion, only natural loss and having experienced all outcomes compared with only birth(s). Risk of death was more than six times greater among women who had never been pregnant compared with those who only had birth(s). Increased risks of death were 45%, 114% and 191% for 1, 2 and 3 abortions, respectively, compared with no abortions after controlling for other reproductive outcomes and last pregnancy age. Increased risks of death were equal to 44%, 86% and 150% for 1, 2 and 3 natural losses, respectively, compared with none after including statistical controls. Finally, decreased mortality risks were observed for women who had experienced two and three or more births compared with no births. This study offers a broad perspective on reproductive history and mortality rates, with the results indicating a need for further research on possible underlying mechanisms.

  1. A study of longitudinal data examining concomitance of pain and cognition in an elderly long-term care population

    PubMed Central

    Burfield, Allison H; Wan, Thomas TH; Sole, Mary Lou; Cooper, James W

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To examine if a concomitant relationship exists between cognition and pain in an elderly population residing in long-term care. Background/significance Prior research has found that cognitive load mediates interpretation of a stimulus. In the presence of decreased cognitive capacity as with dementia, the relationship between cognition and increasing pain is unknown in the elderly. Patients and methods Longitudinal cohort design. Data collected from the Minimum Data Set-Resident Assessment Instrument (MDS-RAI) from the 2001–2003 annual assessments of nursing home residents. A covariance model was used to evaluate the relationship between cognition and pain at three intervals. Results The sample included 56,494 subjects from nursing homes across the United States, with an average age of 83 ± 8.2 years. Analysis of variance scores (ANOVAs) indicated a significant effect (P < 0.01) for pain and cognition, with protected t test revealing scores decreasing significantly with these two measures. Relative stability was found for pain and cognition over time. Greater stability was found in the cognitive measure than the pain measure. Cross-legged effects observed between cognition and pain measures were inconsistent. A concomitant relationship was not found between cognition and pain. Even though the relationship was significant at the 0.01 level, the correlations were low (r ≤ 0.08), indicating a weak association between cognition and pain. Conclusion Understanding the concomitance of pain and cognition aids in defining additional frameworks to extend models to include secondary needs, contextual factors, and resident outcomes. Cognitive decline, as with organic brain diseases, is progressive. Pain is a symptom that can be treated and reduced to improve resident quality of life. However, cognition can be used to determine the most appropriate method to assess pain in the elderly, thereby improving accuracy of pain detection in this population. PMID:22536093

  2. Long-term risk of renal and urinary tract diseases in childhood cancer survivors: A population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Bonnesen, Trine Gade; Winther, Jeanette F; Asdahl, Peter H; de Fine Licht, Sofie; Gudmundsdottir, Thorgerdur; Sällfors Holmqvist, Anna; Madanat-Harjuoja, Laura-Maria; Tryggvadottir, Laufey; Wesenberg, Finn; Birn, Henrik; Olsen, Jørgen H; Hasle, Henrik

    2016-09-01

    Childhood cancer has been associated with long-term risk of urinary tract diseases, but risk patterns remain to be comprehensively investigated. We analysed the lifetime risk of urinary tract diseases in survivors of childhood cancer in the Nordic countries. We identified 32,519 one-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed since the 1940s and 1950s in the five Nordic cancer registries and selected 211,156 population comparisons of a corresponding age, sex, and country of residence from the national population registries. To obtain information on all first-time hospitalizations for a urinary tract disease, we linked all study subjects to the national hospital registry of each country. Relative risks (RRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for urinary tract diseases among cancer survivors were calculated with the appropriate morbidity rates among comparisons as reference. We observed 1645 childhood cancer survivors ever hospitalized for urinary tract disease yielding an RR of 2.5 (95% CI 2.4-2.7) and an AER of 229 (95% CI 210-248) per 100,000 person-years. The cumulative risk at age 60 was 22% in cancer survivors and 10% in comparisons. Infections of the urinary system and chronic kidney disease showed the highest excess risks, whereas survivors of neuroblastoma, hepatic and renal tumours experienced the highest RRs. Survivors of childhood cancer had an excess risk of urinary tract diseases and for most diseases the risk remained elevated throughout life. The highest risks occurred following therapy of childhood abdominal tumours. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Long-term persistence of a neotropical ant-plant population in the absence of obligate plant-ants.

    PubMed

    Moraes, Sinara C; Vasconcelos, Heraldo L

    2009-09-01

    Interactions between ants and ant-plants are considered classic examples of obligate mutualisms. Previous studies have indicated that for many ant-plants the loss of ant colonies results in severe defoliation or mortality. Although individual plants can persist for some period of time without their mutualistic partners, to date populations of ant-free plants have only been recorded at high altitudes or on remote islands where herbivores are also scarce. We studied the interaction between ants, herbivores, and the ant-plant Tococa guianensis in the Cerrado region of central Brazil. Using a survey conducted across a large geographic region, we show that there is interpopulation variation in ant occupancy across sites and habitats. At most sites surveyed, plants were inhabited by Allomerus octoarticulatus, an obligate plant-ant. Plants with obligate ants had significantly lower standing levels of herbivore damage than plants with opportunistic ants and plants with no ant occupants. Furthermore, experimental removal of A. octoarticulatus resulted in increased levels of damage in both young and mature leaves. Despite the protection provided by obligate ants, populations of T. guianensis were found to persist without these ants in some areas. Plants without A. octoarticulatus had significantly greater leaf toughness and trichome density than those with A. octoarticulatus. Furthermore, trichome density in plants with A. octoarticulatus increased after ants were removed, probably as a response induced by increased levels of herbivore damage. To our knowledge, this is the first record of the occurrence of native myrmecophyte populations without their mutualistic ants in mainland low-elevation sites. Several factors may help to explain the long-term persistence of T. guianensis populations without plant-ants in some areas of the Brazilian Cerrado, including its potential for induced morphological defenses against insect herbivores and selection for increased levels of

  4. Long-Term Care

    MedlinePlus

    ... this page please turn Javascript on. Long-Term Care What Is Long-Term Care? Long-term care involves a variety of services ... the Escape (Esc) button on your keyboard.) Most Care Provided at Home Long-term care is provided ...

  5. Long-term changes in the fine-scale population structure of coho salmon populations (Oncorhynchus kisutch) subject to extensive supportive breeding.

    PubMed

    Eldridge, W H; Myers, J M; Naish, K A

    2009-10-01

    The long-term viability of a metapopulation depends partly on the gene flow among sub-populations. Management approaches such as translocations and supportive breeding between closely related populations may affect gene flow and overall structure, and therefore viability. Here, we examined temporal changes in the fine-scale population structure of coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) by comparing archived (1938) and modern (2001-2005) populations in six rivers within a single conservation unit (Puget Sound, Washington) sampled before and after an extended period of between-river transfers and releases of millions of cultured salmon. Genotype frequencies at eight microsatellite loci showed that current populations descended from historical Puget Sound populations, but populations in different rivers that exchanged fish for hatchery propagation share more of their ancestry recently than they did historically. Historically, populations in different rivers were isolated by geographic distance, but that relationship is no longer significant. Allelic richness among all populations declined significantly, suggesting that genetic drift has increased because of a population bottleneck. Populations in different rivers and within the same river have become more diverged, providing further evidence for a widespread bottleneck. Previously, we observed that genetic distance significantly decreased with the number of fish exchanged; however, some populations apparently resisted introgression. Altered gene flow and lost diversity may affect the complexity, and therefore resiliency of sub-populations within a conservation unit. Plans for artificial culture need to maintain existing genetic diversity and avoid disrupting the fine-scale structure by using local populations for parents whenever possible.

  6. Effect of long-term vineyard monoculture on rhizosphere populations of pseudomonads carrying the antimicrobial biosynthetic genes phlD and/or hcnAB.

    PubMed

    Svercel, Miroslav; Christen, Danilo; Moënne-Loccoz, Yvan; Duffy, Brion; Défago, Geneviève

    2009-04-01

    The impact of repeated culture of perennial plants (i.e. in long-term monoculture) on the ecology of plant-beneficial bacteria is unknown. Here, the influence of extremely long-term monocultures of grapevine (up to 1603 years) on rhizosphere populations of fluorescent pseudomonads carrying the biosynthetic genes phlD for 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol and/or hcnAB for hydrogen cyanide was determined. Soils from long-term and adjacent short-term monoculture vineyards (or brushland) in four regions of Switzerland were baited with grapevine or tobacco plantlets, and rhizosphere pseudomonads were studied by most probable number (MPN)-PCR. Higher numbers and percentages of phlD(+) and of hcnAB(+) rhizosphere pseudomonads were detected on using soil from long-term vineyards. On focusing on phlD, restriction fragment length polymorphism profiling of the last phlD-positive MPN wells revealed seven phlD alleles (three exclusively on tobacco, thereof two new ones). Higher numbers of phlD alleles coincided with a lower prevalence of the allele displayed by the well-studied biocontrol strain Pseudomonas fluorescens F113. The prevalence of this allele was 35% for tobacco in long-term monoculture soils vs. >60% in the other three cases. We conclude that soils from long-term grapevine monocultures represent an untapped resource for isolating novel biocontrol Pseudomonas strains when tobacco is used as bait.

  7. Influence of Long-Term Benzodiazepine use on Neurocognitive Skills Related to Driving Performance in Patient Populations: A Review.

    PubMed

    van der Sluiszen, Nick N J J M; Vermeeren, Annemiek; Jongen, Stefan; Vinckenbosch, Frederick; Ramaekers, Johannes G

    2017-09-01

    Acute benzodiazepine intoxication produces severe impairment of neurocognitive skills related to driving. It is less clear whether such impairments also occur in patients who use benzodiazepines chronically. The current review evaluated neurocognitive skills of long-term benzodiazepine users and addressed 2 major questions: do long-term users develop tolerance for the impairing effects of benzodiazepines on neurocognitive performance, and if so, does tolerance warrant a change in driver fitness classification systems that currently deem users of benzodiazepines unfit to drive? Neurocognitive impairments were reported in patients who on average used benzodiazepines for 5-15 years. In addition, sensitivity to acute benzodiazepine impairment decreased in long-term users, suggesting (partial) tolerance. Definitions of clinical relevance of neurocognitive impairments in long-term users and how these were affected by duration of benzodiazepine use were generally lacking. Also, sensitivity of neurocognitive tasks to drug effects and their validity to predict fitness to drive were generally unknown. Because of these limitations, no firm conclusion can be drawn regarding a re-classification of long-term benzodiazepine effects on driver fitness. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  8. Long-term renal outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury: A nationwide population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Kor, Chew-Teng; Chiu, Ping-Fang; Tsai, Chun-Chieh; Lian, Ie-Bin; Yang, Tao-Hsiang; Tarng, Der-Cherng; Chang, Chia-Chu

    2017-01-01

    Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is an important cause of death and disability worldwide. The relationship between TBI and kidney diseases is largely unknown. Methods We aimed to determine whether TBI is associated with long-term adverse renal outcomes. We performed a nationwide, population-based, propensity score-matched cohort study of 32,152 TBI patients and 128,608 propensity score-matched controls. Data were collected by the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan from 2000 to 2012. Our clinical outcomes were chronic kidney disease (CKD), end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and the composite endpoint of ESRD or all-cause mortality. Results The incidence rate of CKD was higher in the TBI than in the control cohort (8.99 vs. 7.4 per 1000 person-years). The TBI patients also showed higher risks of CKD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08–1.20; P < 0.001) and composite endpoints (aHR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01–1.15; P = 0.022) than the control groups, but the ESRD was not significantly different between the groups. In subgroup analyses, the risks of incident CKD and composite endpoints were significantly raised in TBI patients aged < 65 years and/or without comorbidities. However, the risks of both CKD and composite outcome were little affected by the severity of TBI. Conclusions TBI has a modest but significant effect on incident CKD and composite endpoint, but not on ESRD alone. TBI patients under 65 are at greater risk of CKD and composite outcome than their older counterparts. PMID:28196132

  9. Acquisition of multidrug-resistant gram-negative bacteria: incidence and risk factors within a long-term care population.

    PubMed

    O'Fallon, Erin; Kandel, Ruth; Kandell, Ruth; Schreiber, Robert; D'Agata, Erika M C

    2010-11-01

    An improved understanding of the transmission dynamics of multidrug-resistant (MDR) gram-negative bacteria and the mechanism of acquisition in long-term care facilities (LTCFs) could aid in the development of prevention strategies specific to LTCFs. We thus investigated the incidence of acquisition of these pathogens among an LTCF population. Prospective cohort study. Three separate wards at a 600-bed LTCF in metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, during the period October 31, 2006, through October 22, 2007. One hundred seventy-two LTCF residents. A series of rectal samples were cultured to determine acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria, defined as absence of MDR gram-negative bacterial colonization at baseline and de novo recovery of MDR gram-negative bacteria from a follow-up culture. Molecular typing was performed to identify genetically linked strains. A nested matched case-control study was performed to identify risk factors associated with acquisition. Among 135 residents for whom at least 1 follow-up culture was performed, 52 (39%) acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative organism during the study period. Thirty-two residents (62%) had not been colonized at baseline and had acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative species at follow-up culture, and 20 residents (38%) were colonized at baseline and had acquired at least 1 MDR gram-negative species at follow-up culture. The most common coresistance pattern was resistance to extended-spectrum penicillins, ciprofloxacin, and gentamicin (57 isolates [42.5%]). Genetically related strains of MDR gram-negative bacteria were identified among multiple residents and between roommates. On conditional logistic regression analysis, antibiotic exposure during the study period was significantly associated with acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria (odds ratio, 5.6 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-28.7]; P = .04). Acquisition of MDR gram-negative bacteria occurred frequently through resident-to-resident transmission. Existing

  10. Parental experiences before and long-term after their children's hemispherotomy - A population-based qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Ozanne, Anneli; Verdinelli, Cecilia; Olsson, Ingrid; H Graneheim, Ulla; Malmgren, Kristina

    2016-07-01

    Severe childhood epilepsy has an impact on the whole family. For selected children, hemispherotomy is the treatment of choice. The aim of this study was to explore parents' experiences before and after hemispherotomy as reported at a long-term follow-up and their view on received information and support. This was a population-based qualitative descriptive study, using qualitative content analysis of interviews. Seven to eighteen years after hemispherotomy, parents of twenty-one operated children were interviewed about the family life situation, expectations before surgery, and support and information before and after surgery. Before surgery, the theme 'Living in a chaotic bubble' illuminates how parents felt: the family lived in isolation, they felt both dissatisfaction and satisfaction about support and information, and they experienced that surgery was a question about life or death. After surgery, the theme 'Hovering between success and disaster' illuminates how parents hovered between happiness if the surgery was successful and sadness about e.g., complications and behavior problems. They experienced both excellent and poor support, in hospital and at rehabilitation. Regardless of all concerns, parents were satisfied that the child had received an operation. The hemispherotomies were successful and generated a better life situation. However, in order to cope, families need support and information throughout the whole process, from the onset of epilepsy and for a long time after surgery. If the child has behavior problems, an assessment should be made before surgery in order for the families to get adequate support. The specialist team needs to be involved as early as possible and follow the families for several years after surgery. Focus should be on the whole family, if needed including grandparents; family-centered care might be relevant for this patient group. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Randomised controlled trial of the effect of long-term selenium supplementation on plasma cholesterol in an elderly Danish population.

    PubMed

    Cold, Frederik; Winther, Kristian H; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Rayman, Margaret P; Guallar, Eliseo; Nybo, Mads; Griffin, Bruce A; Stranges, Saverio; Cold, Søren

    2015-12-14

    Although cross-sectional studies have shown a positive association between Se and cholesterol concentrations, a recent randomised controlled trial in 501 elderly UK individuals of relatively low-Se status found that Se supplementation for 6 months lowered total plasma cholesterol. The Danish PRECISE (PREvention of Cancer by Intervention with Selenium) pilot study (ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT01819649) was a 5-year randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial with four groups (allocation ratio 1:1:1:1). Men and women aged 60-74 years (n 491) were randomised to 100 (n 124), 200 (n 122) or 300 (n 119) μg Se-enriched yeast or matching placebo-yeast tablets (n 126) daily for 5 years. A total of 468 participants continued the study for 6 months and 361 participants, equally distributed across treatment groups, continued for 5 years. Plasma samples were analysed for total and HDL-cholesterol and for total Se concentrations at baseline, 6 months and 5 years. The effect of different doses of Se supplementation on plasma lipid and Se concentrations was estimated by using linear mixed models. Plasma Se concentration increased significantly and dose-dependently in the intervention groups after 6 months and 5 years. Total cholesterol decreased significantly both in the intervention groups and in the placebo group after 6 months and 5 years, with small and nonsignificant differences in changes in plasma concentration of total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol and total:HDL-cholesterol ratio between intervention and placebo groups. The effect of long-term supplementation with Se on plasma cholesterol concentrations or its sub-fractions did not differ significantly from placebo in this elderly population.

  12. Long-Term Effect of Population Screening for Diabetes on Cardiovascular Morbidity, Self-Rated Health, and Health Behavior

    PubMed Central

    Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin B.; Simmons, Rebecca K.; Prevost, A. Toby; Williams, Kate M.; Kinmonth, Ann-Louise; Wareham, Nicholas J.; Griffin, Simon J.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE There is limited trial evidence concerning the long-term effects of screening for type 2 diabetes on population morbidity. We examined the effect of a population-based diabetes screening program on cardiovascular morbidity, self-rated health, and health-related behaviors. METHODS We conducted a pragmatic, parallel-group, cluster-randomized controlled trial of diabetes screening (the ADDITION-Cambridge study) including 18,875 individuals aged 40 to 69 years at high risk of diabetes in 32 general practices in eastern England (27 practices randomly allocated to screening, 5 to no-screening for control). Of those eligible for screening, 466 (2.9%) were diagnosed with diabetes. Seven years after randomization, a random sample of patients was sent a postal questionnaire: 15% from the screening group (including diabetes screening visit attenders and non-attenders) and 40% from the no-screening control group. Self-reported cardiovascular morbidity, self-rated health (using the SF-8 Health Survey and EQ-5D instrument), and health behaviors were compared between trial groups using an intention-to-screen analysis. RESULTS Of the 3,286 questionnaires mailed out, 1,995 (61%) were returned, with 1,945 included in the analysis (screening: 1,373; control: 572). At 7 years, there were no significant differences between the screening and control groups in the proportion of participants reporting heart attack or stroke (OR = 0.90, 95% CI, 0.71–1.15); SF-8 physical health summary score as an indicator of self-rated health status (β −0.33, 95% CI, −1.80 to 1.14); EQ-5D visual analogue score (β: 0.80, 95% CI, −1.28 to 2.87); total physical activity (β 0.50, 95% CI, −4.08 to 5.07); current smoking (OR 0.97, 95% CI, 0.72 to 1.32); and alcohol consumption (β 0.14, 95% CI, −1.07 to 1.35). CONCLUSIONS Invitation to screening for type 2 diabetes appears to have limited impact on population levels of cardiovascular morbidity, self-rated health status, and health

  13. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Clark, W.R.; Arnold, S.J.; Bronikowski, A.M.

    2011-01-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (??s) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on ?? s. The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on ??s was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on ??s was 4- 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of divergent life

  14. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    PubMed

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  15. Sources of variability in spotted owl population growth rate: testing predictions using long-term mark-recapture data.

    PubMed

    Seamans, Mark E; Gutiérrez, R J

    2007-05-01

    For long-lived iteroparous vertebrates that annually produce few young, life history theory predicts that reproductive output (R) and juvenile survival should influence temporal variation in population growth rate (lambda) more than adult survival does. We examined this general prediction using 15 years of mark-recapture data from a population of California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We found that survival of individuals > or =1 year old (phi) exhibited much less temporal variability (CV = 0.04), where CV is coefficient of variation, than R (CV = 0.83) and that R was strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity. Although lambda was most sensitive (ê; log-transformed sensitivity) to phi (ê = 0.77), and much less sensitive to either R (ê = 0.12) or juvenile survival (survival rate of owls from fledging to 1 year old; ê = 0.12), we estimated that R contributed as much as phi to the observed annual variability in lambda. The contribution of juvenile survival to variability in lambda was proportional to its ê. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection may have favored the evolution of longevity in spotted owls as a strategy to increase the probability of experiencing favorable years for reproduction. Our finding that annual weather patterns that most affected R (temperature and precipitation during incubation) and phi (conditions during winter related to the Southern Oscillation Index) were equally good at explaining temporal variability in lambda supports the conclusion that R and phi were equally responsible for variability in lambda. Although currently accepted conservation measures for spotted owl populations attempt to enhance survival, our results indicated that conservation measures that target R may be as successful, as long as actions do not reduce phi.

  16. Stochastic delocalization of finite populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geyrhofer, Lukas; Hallatschek, Oskar

    2013-01-01

    The localization of populations of replicating bacteria, viruses or autocatalytic chemicals arises in various contexts, such as ecology, evolution, medicine or chemistry. Several deterministic mathematical models have been used to characterize the conditions under which localized states can form, and how they break down due to convective driving forces. It has been repeatedly found that populations remain localized unless the bias exceeds a critical threshold value, and that close to the transition the population is characterized by a diverging length scale. These results, however, have been obtained upon ignoring number fluctuations (‘genetic drift’), which are inevitable given the discreteness of the replicating entities. Here, we study the localization/delocalization of a finite population in the presence of genetic drift. The population is modeled by a linear chain of subpopulations, or demes, which exchange migrants at a constant rate. Individuals in one particular deme, called ‘oasis’, receive a growth rate benefit, and the total population is regulated to have constant size N. In this ecological setting, we find that any finite population delocalizes on sufficiently long time scales. Depending on parameters, however, populations may remain localized for a very long time. The typical waiting time to delocalization increases exponentially with both population size and distance to the critical wind speed of the deterministic approximation. We augment these simulation results by a mathematical analysis that treats the reproduction and migration of individuals as branching random walks subject to global constraints. For a particular constraint, different from a fixed population size constraint, this model yields a solvable first moment equation. We find that this solvable model approximates very well the fixed population size model for large populations, but starts to deviate as population sizes are small. Nevertheless, the qualitative behavior of the

  17. Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

    Treesearch

    Donald J. Brown; Christine A. Ribic; Deahn M. Donner; Mark D. Nelson; Carol I. Bocetti; Christie M. Deloria-Sheffield; Des Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii...

  18. The Chronicity of Self-Injurious Behaviour: A Long-Term Follow-Up of a Total Population Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Lorne; Oliver, Chris; Murphy, Glynis

    2011-01-01

    Background: Self-injurious behaviour (SIB) is a relatively common problem for people with intellectual disabilities and it is known to be associated with various risk markers, such as degree of disability, sensory impairments, and autism (McClintock "et al." 2003). Less is known about its long-term course however. Method: The present…

  19. Spotlight on "Long-Term English Language Learners": Characteristics and Prior Schooling Experiences of an Invisible Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menken, Kate; Kleyn, Tatyana; Chae, Nabin

    2012-01-01

    This article presents qualitative research findings about the characteristics and prior schooling experiences of "long-term English language learners" (LTELLs), who have attended U.S. schools for 7 years or more, and about whom there is little empirical research, despite their significant numbers. Findings indicate that these students are orally…

  20. The Chronicity of Self-Injurious Behaviour: A Long-Term Follow-Up of a Total Population Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Taylor, Lorne; Oliver, Chris; Murphy, Glynis

    2011-01-01

    Background: Self-injurious behaviour (SIB) is a relatively common problem for people with intellectual disabilities and it is known to be associated with various risk markers, such as degree of disability, sensory impairments, and autism (McClintock "et al." 2003). Less is known about its long-term course however. Method: The present…

  1. Spotlight on "Long-Term English Language Learners": Characteristics and Prior Schooling Experiences of an Invisible Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menken, Kate; Kleyn, Tatyana; Chae, Nabin

    2012-01-01

    This article presents qualitative research findings about the characteristics and prior schooling experiences of "long-term English language learners" (LTELLs), who have attended U.S. schools for 7 years or more, and about whom there is little empirical research, despite their significant numbers. Findings indicate that these students are orally…

  2. Effects of capturing and collaring on polar bears: findings from long-term research on the southern Beaufort Sea population

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rode, Karyn D.; Pagano, Anthony M.; Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; Atwood, Todd C.; Durner, George M.; Simac, Kristin; Amstrup, Steven C.

    2014-01-01

    Implications: This study provides empirical evidence that current capture-based research methods do not have long-term implications, and are not contributing to observed changes in body condition, reproduction or survival in the southern Beaufort Sea. Continued refinement of capture protocols, such as the use of low-impact dart rifles and reversible drug combinations, might improve polar bear response to capture and abate short-term reductions in activity and movement post-capture.

  3. Long-term Effect of Radiotherapy in Rectal Cancer Patients with Mucinous Tumor: A Large Population Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Guan, Xu; Jia, Senhao; Chen, Wei; Jiang, Zheng; Liu, Zheng; Chen, Yinggang; Wang, Guiyu; Wang, Xishan

    2017-01-01

    Due to distinct biological behavior of mucinous adenocarcinoma (MAC) and signet ring cell cancer (SRC), the efficacy of radiotherapy on long-term outcome for rectal cancer (RC) patients with mucinous tumors is still unclear. Here, we identified 1808 RC patients with MAC/SRC from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2013. Patients were divided into two subgroups according to different therapeutic strategies, including surgery alone and surgery combined with radiotherapy. Kaplan–Meier methods and Cox regression models were used to access the influence of therapeutic strategy on long-term survival outcomes. The 5-year and 10-year cancer specific survival (CSS) were improved in stage II and III patients who underwent surgery and radiotherapy compared with patients who underwent surgery alone. These results were further confirmed following propensity score matching. In addition, radiotherapy was deemed as independent good prognostic factor in patient with MAC/SRC. In subgroup analysis, the result also demonstrated that long-term survival was improved following radiotherapy. However, there was no prognostic difference between preoperative and postoperative radiotherapy. In conclusion, radiotherapy could improve survival for RC patients with MAC and SRC, but only for patients in stage II and III. This finding supported the application of radiotherapy in clinical practice. PMID:28272410

  4. Association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a nationwide population-based, propensity score-matched, cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Li-Hsin; Lin, Liang-Yu; Tsai, Ming-Tsun; How, Chorng-Kuang; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Hu, Sung-Yuan; Hsieh, Ming-Shun

    2016-01-01

    Objective Hyperglycaemic crisis was associated with significant intrahospital morbidity and mortality. However, the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term cardiovascular outcomes remained unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and subsequent long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Participants and methods This population-based cohort study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period of 1996–2012. A total of 2171 diabetic patients with hyperglycaemic crisis fit the inclusion criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match the baseline characteristics of the study cohort to construct a comparison cohort which comprised 8684 diabetic patients without hyperglycaemic crisis. The risk of long-term MACEs was compared between the two cohorts. Results Six hundred and seventy-six MACEs occurred in the study cohort and the event rate was higher than that in the comparison cohort (31.1% vs 24.1%, p<0.001). Patients with hyperglycaemic crisis were associated with a higher risk of long-term MACEs even after adjusting for all baseline characteristics and medications (adjusted HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.62 to 1.92, p<0.001). Acute myocardial infarction had the highest adjusted HR (adjusted HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75, p<0.001) in the four types of MACEs, followed by congestive heart failure (adjusted HR=1.97, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.28, p<0.001). Younger patients with hyperglycaemic crisis had a higher risk of MACEs than older patients (adjusted HR=2.69 for patients aged 20–39 years vs adjusted HR=1.58 for patients aged >65 years). Conclusions Hyperglycaemic crisis was significantly associated with long-term MACEs, especially in the young population. Further prospective longitudinal study should be conducted for validation. PMID:27554106

  5. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gavane, Ajinkya S.; Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-01

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  6. Stochastic population dynamics under resource constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Gavane, Ajinkya S. Nigam, Rahul

    2016-06-02

    This paper investigates the population growth of a certain species in which every generation reproduces thrice over a period of predefined time, under certain constraints of resources needed for survival of population. We study the survival period of a species by randomizing the reproduction probabilities within a window at same predefined ages and the resources are being produced by the working force of the population at a variable rate. This randomness in the reproduction rate makes the population growth stochastic in nature and one cannot predict the exact form of evolution. Hence we study the growth by running simulations for such a population and taking an ensemble averaged over 500 to 5000 such simulations as per the need. While the population reproduces in a stochastic manner, we have implemented a constraint on the amount of resources available for the population. This is important to make the simulations more realistic. The rate of resource production then is tuned to find the rate which suits the survival of the species. We also compute the mean life time of the species corresponding to different resource production rate. Study for these outcomes in the parameter space defined by the reproduction probabilities and rate of resource production is carried out.

  7. Long-Term Impact of an Electronic Health Record-Enabled, Team-Based, and Scalable Population Health Strategy Based on the Chronic Care Model

    PubMed Central

    Kawamoto, Kensaku; Anstrom, Kevin J; Anderson, John B; Bosworth, Hayden B; Lobach, David F; McAdam-Marx, Carrie; Ferranti, Jeffrey M; Shang, Howard; Yarnall, Kimberly S H

    2016-01-01

    The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is a promising framework for improving population health, but little is known regarding the long-term impact of scalable, informatics-enabled interventions based on this model. To address this challenge, this study evaluated the long-term impact of implementing a scalable, electronic health record (EHR)- enabled, and CCM-based population health program to replace a labor-intensive legacy program in 18 primary care practices. Interventions included point-of-care decision support, quality reporting, team-based care, patient engagement, and provider education. Among 6,768 patients with diabetes receiving care over 4 years, hemoglobin A1c levels remained stable during the 2-year pre-intervention and post-intervention periods (0.03% and 0% increases, respectively), compared to a 0.42% increase expected based on A1c progression observed in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study long-term outcomes cohort. The results indicate that an EHR-enabled, team- based, and scalable population health strategy based on the CCM may be effective and efficient for managing population health. PMID:28269865

  8. Long-Term Impact of an Electronic Health Record-Enabled, Team-Based, and Scalable Population Health Strategy Based on the Chronic Care Model.

    PubMed

    Kawamoto, Kensaku; Anstrom, Kevin J; Anderson, John B; Bosworth, Hayden B; Lobach, David F; McAdam-Marx, Carrie; Ferranti, Jeffrey M; Shang, Howard; Yarnall, Kimberly S H

    2016-01-01

    The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is a promising framework for improving population health, but little is known regarding the long-term impact of scalable, informatics-enabled interventions based on this model. To address this challenge, this study evaluated the long-term impact of implementing a scalable, electronic health record (EHR)- enabled, and CCM-based population health program to replace a labor-intensive legacy program in 18 primary care practices. Interventions included point-of-care decision support, quality reporting, team-based care, patient engagement, and provider education. Among 6,768 patients with diabetes receiving care over 4 years, hemoglobin A1c levels remained stable during the 2-year pre-intervention and post-intervention periods (0.03% and 0% increases, respectively), compared to a 0.42% increase expected based on A1c progression observed in the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study long-term outcomes cohort. The results indicate that an EHR-enabled, team- based, and scalable population health strategy based on the CCM may be effective and efficient for managing population health.

  9. Long-Term Two-Photon Calcium Imaging of Neuronal Populations with Subcellular Resolution in Adult Non-human Primates.

    PubMed

    Sadakane, Osamu; Masamizu, Yoshito; Watakabe, Akiya; Terada, Shin-Ichiro; Ohtsuka, Masanari; Takaji, Masafumi; Mizukami, Hiroaki; Ozawa, Keiya; Kawasaki, Hiroshi; Matsuzaki, Masanori; Yamamori, Tetsuo

    2015-12-01

    Two-photon imaging with genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs) enables long-term observation of neuronal activity in vivo. However, there are very few studies of GECIs in primates. Here, we report a method for long-term imaging of a GECI, GCaMP6f, expressed from adeno-associated virus vectors in cortical neurons of the adult common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus), a small New World primate. We used a tetracycline-inducible expression system to robustly amplify neuronal GCaMP6f expression and up- and downregulate it for more than 100 days. We succeeded in monitoring spontaneous activity not only from hundreds of neurons three-dimensionally distributed in layers 2 and 3 but also from single dendrites and axons in layer 1. Furthermore, we detected selective activities from somata, dendrites, and axons in the somatosensory cortex responding to specific tactile stimuli. Our results provide a way to investigate the organization and plasticity of cortical microcircuits at subcellular resolution in non-human primates.

  10. Body Size and Geographic Range Do Not Explain Long Term Variation in Fish Populations: A Bayesian Phylogenetic Approach to Testing Assembly Processes in Stream Fish Assemblages

    PubMed Central

    Jacquemin, Stephen J.; Doll, Jason C.

    2014-01-01

    We combine evolutionary biology and community ecology to test whether two species traits, body size and geographic range, explain long term variation in local scale freshwater stream fish assemblages. Body size and geographic range are expected to influence several aspects of fish ecology, via relationships with niche breadth, dispersal, and abundance. These traits are expected to scale inversely with niche breadth or current abundance, and to scale directly with dispersal potential. However, their utility to explain long term temporal patterns in local scale abundance is not known. Comparative methods employing an existing molecular phylogeny were used to incorporate evolutionary relatedness in a test for covariation of body size and geographic range with long term (1983 – 2010) local scale population variation of fishes in West Fork White River (Indiana, USA). The Bayesian model incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty and correlated predictors indicated that neither body size nor geographic range explained significant variation in population fluctuations over a 28 year period. Phylogenetic signal data indicated that body size and geographic range were less similar among taxa than expected if trait evolution followed a purely random walk. We interpret this as evidence that local scale population variation may be influenced less by species-level traits such as body size or geographic range, and instead may be influenced more strongly by a taxon’s local scale habitat and biotic assemblages. PMID:24691075

  11. Compensation benefits in a population-based cohort of men and women on long-term disability after musculoskeletal injuries: costs, course, predictors.

    PubMed

    Lederer, Valérie; Rivard, Michèle

    2014-11-01

    The aim of this study is to assess costs, duration and predictors of prolonged compensation benefits by gender in a population characterised by long-term compensation benefits for traumatic or non-traumatic musculoskeletal injuries (MSIs). This study examined 3 years of data from a register-based provincial cohort including all new allowed long-term claims (≥3 months of wage replacement benefits) related to neck/shoulder/back/trunk/upper-limb MSIs in Quebec, Canada, from 2001 to 2003 (13,073 men and 9032 women). Main outcomes were compensation duration and costs. Analyses were carried out separately for men and women to investigate gender differences. An extended Cox model with Heaviside functions of time was used to account for covariates with time-varying effects. Male workers experienced a longer compensation benefit duration and higher median costs. At the end of follow-up, 3 years postinjury, 12.3% of men and 7.3% of women were still receiving compensation benefits. Effects of certain predictors (e.g., income, injury site or industry) differed markedly between men and women. Age and claim history had time-varying effects in the men's and women's models, respectively. Knowing costs, duration and predictors of long-term compensation claims by gender can help employers, decision makers and rehabilitation specialists to identify at-risk workers and industries to engage them in early intervention and prevention programmes. Tailoring parts of long-term disability prevention and management efforts to men's and women's specific needs, barriers and vulnerable subgroups, could reduce time on benefits among both male and female long-term claimants. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  12. Ileal urinary reservoir in pediatric population: objective assessment of long-term sequelae with time-to-event analysis.

    PubMed

    Elshal, Ahmed M; Abdelhalim, Ahmed; Hafez, Ashraf T; Abol-Enein, Hassan

    2012-05-01

    To evaluate the long-term outcomes of an ileal urinary reservoir in children. This was a longitudinal study of pediatric patients who had undergone total ileal substitution of the bladder. Continence status was assessed, and all patients were evaluated for kidney function and biochemical profile. Standardized growth charts were used to assess linear growth. To assess bone mineral density, dual-emission x-ray absorptiometry scanning was performed. Clavien's scale was used to report and grade the long-term complications and their timing. We used a simple quality of life questionnaire to assess the effect of the procedure on the quality of life of the growing child. A total of 17 patients were included; 3 with orthotopic and 14 with continent cutaneous reservoirs. After a mean follow-up of 87.3 months, all patients were voiding with clean intermittent catheterization, with a 94% final continence rate. Two patients (11.7%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate of ≤ 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2) at the last follow-up examination. However, no clinically manifest metabolic acidosis was detected. No anemia or neurologic deficit was detected, with a low-normal serum level of vitamin B(12) in 2 patients (11.7%) and a low level in 1 patient (5.7%). One patient (5.7%) had chronic diarrhea. Low bone mineral density was found in 4 patients (22.8%), with 3 patients (17.1%) not exceeding the fifth percentile of height for age. High-grade complications (grade 3a-5) represented 64.5% of the complications, and the need for reintervention occurred late in the follow-up period. A high level of quality of life satisfaction was reported (88.5%). Ileal neobladder construction allows child to pass into adolescence dry with more confidence and self-esteem, with no external urine collection set. However, long-term follow-up is mandatory to maintain the positive outcome. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Molecular demographic history of the annual sunflowers Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris--large effective population sizes and rates of long-term gene flow.

    PubMed

    Strasburg, Jared L; Rieseberg, Loren H

    2008-08-01

    Hybridization between distinct species may lead to introgression of genes across species boundaries, and this pattern can potentially persist for extended periods as long as selection at some loci or genomic regions prevents thorough mixing of gene pools. However, very few reliable estimates of long-term levels of effective migration are available between hybridizing species throughout their history. Accurate estimates of divergence dates and levels of gene flow require data from multiple unlinked loci as well as an analytical framework that can distinguish between lineage sorting and gene flow and incorporate the effects of demographic changes within each species. Here we use sequence data from 18 anonymous nuclear loci in two broadly sympatric sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, analyzed within an "isolation with migration" framework to make genome-wide estimates of the ages of these two species, long-term rates of gene flow between them, and effective population sizes and historical patterns of population growth. Our results indicate that H. annuus and H. petiolaris are approximately one million years old and have exchanged genes at a surprisingly high rate (long-term N(ef)m estimates of approximately 0.5 in each direction), with somewhat higher rates of introgression from H. annuus into H. petiolaris than vice versa. In addition, each species has undergone dramatic population expansion since divergence, and both species have among the highest levels of genetic diversity reported for flowering plants. Our results provide the most comprehensive estimate to date of long-term patterns of gene flow and historical demography in a nonmodel plant system, and they indicate that species integrity can be maintained even in the face of extensive gene flow over a prolonged period.

  14. MOLECULAR DEMOGRAPHIC HISTORY OF THE ANNUAL SUNFLOWERS HELIANTHUS ANNUUS AND H. PETIOLARIS—LARGE EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZES AND RATES OF LONG-TERM GENE FLOW

    PubMed Central

    Strasburg, Jared L.; Rieseberg, Loren H.

    2008-01-01

    Hybridization between distinct species may lead to introgression of genes across species boundaries, and this pattern can potentially persist for extended periods as long as selection at some loci or genomic regions prevents thorough mixing of gene pools. However, very few reliable estimates of long-term levels of effective migration are available between hybridizing species throughout their history. Accurate estimates of divergence dates and levels of gene flow require data from multiple unlinked loci as well as an analytical framework that can distinguish between lineage sorting and gene flow and incorporate the effects of demographic changes within each species. Here we use sequence data from 18 anonymous nuclear loci in two broadly sympatric sunflower species, Helianthus annuus and H. petiolaris, analyzed within an “isolation with migration” framework to make genome-wide estimates of the ages of these two species, long-term rates of gene flow between them, and effective population sizes and historical patterns of population growth. Our results indicate that H. annuus and H. petiolaris are approximately one million years old and have exchanged genes at a surprisingly high rate (long-term Nef m estimates of approximately 0.5 in each direction), with somewhat higher rates of introgression from H. annuus into H. petiolaris than vice versa. In addition, each species has undergone dramatic population expansion since divergence, and both species have among the highest levels of genetic diversity reported for flowering plants. Our results provide the most comprehensive estimate to date of long-term patterns of gene flow and historical demography in a nonmodel plant system, and they indicate that species integrity can be maintained even in the face of extensive gene flow over a prolonged period. PMID:18462213

  15. Contribution of Pharmacogenetic Testing to Modeled Medication Change Recommendations in a Long-Term Care Population with Polypharmacy.

    PubMed

    Sugarman, Elaine A; Cullors, Ali; Centeno, Joel; Taylor, David

    2016-12-01

    Among long-term care facility residents, polypharmacy is common, and often appropriate, given the need to treat multiple, complex, chronic conditions. Polypharmacy has, however, been associated with increased healthcare costs, adverse drug events, and drug interactions. The current study evaluates the potential medication cost savings of adding personalized pharmacogenetic information to traditional medication management strategies. One hundred and twelve long-term care residents completed pharmacogenetic testing for targeted variants in the following genes: CYP1A2, CYP2C9, CYP2C19, CYP2D6, CYP3A4/CYP3A5, HTR2A, HTR2C, SLC6A4, SLC6A2 COMT, OPRM1, SLCO1B1, VKORC1 and MTHFR. Following reporting of the IDgenetix Polypharmacy(®) test results, an internal medication management assessment was performed by a licensed clinical pharmacist to identify potential opportunities for regimen optimization through medication changes or discontinuations. The medication cost differences before and after the pharmacogenetic-guided review were assessed. Medication review following pharmacogenetic result reporting identified 54 patients (48.2%) with a total of 132 drug change recommendations (45 reductions; 87 replacements) and an average of 2.4 proposed medication changes (range 1-6) per patient. Medication cost savings related to the identified reduction and replacement opportunities exceeded the cost of testing and are estimated to be US$ 1300 (year 2016 cost) per patient annually assuming full implementation. Compared with traditional medication review, pharmacogenetic testing resulted in a 38% increase in the number of patients with current medication change opportunities and also offered valuable genetic information that could be referenced to personalize future prescribing decisions for all patients.

  16. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  17. Amerciamysis bahia Stochastic Matrix Population Model for Laboratory Populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    The population model described here is a stochastic, density-independent matrix model for integrating the effects of toxicants on survival and reproduction of the marine invertebrate, Americamysis bahia. The model was constructed using Microsoft® Excel 2003. The focus of the mode...

  18. The Long-Term Relationship between Population Growth and Vegetation Cover: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Panel Data of 21 Cities in Guangdong Province, China

    PubMed Central

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-01-01

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons·km−2 and 3,820 persons·km−2, and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term. PMID:23435589

  19. The long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover: an empirical analysis based on the panel data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China.

    PubMed

    Li, Chao; Kuang, Yaoqiu; Huang, Ningsheng; Zhang, Chao

    2013-02-07

    It is generally believed that there is an inverse relationship between population growth and vegetation cover. However, reports about vegetation protection and reforestation around the World have been continuously increasing in recent decades, which seems to indicate that this relationship may not be true. In this paper, we have taken 21 cities in Guangdong Province, China as the study area to test the long-term relationship between population growth and vegetation cover, using an AVHRR NDVI data set and the panel cointegrated regression method. The results show that there is a long-term inverted N-shaped curve relationship between population growth and vegetation cover in the region where there are frequent human activities and the influence of climate change on vegetation cover changes is relatively small. The two turning points of the inverted N-shaped curve for the case of Guangdong Province correspond to 2,200 persons · km(-2) and 3,820 persons · km(-2), and they can provide a reference range for similar regions of the World. It also states that the population urbanization may have a negative impact on the vegetation cover at the early stage, but have a positive impact at the later stage. In addition, the Panel Error Correction Model (PECM) is used to investigate the causality direction between population growth and vegetation cover. The results show that not only will the consuming destruction effect and planting construction effect induced by the population growth have a great impact on vegetation cover changes, but vegetation cover changes in turn will also affect the population growth in the long term.

  20. Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games.

  1. Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas.

    PubMed

    Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2017-01-18

    It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite 'populations of ideas'. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games.

  2. Stochastic evolution in populations of ideas

    PubMed Central

    Nicole, Robin; Sollich, Peter; Galla, Tobias

    2017-01-01

    It is known that learning of players who interact in a repeated game can be interpreted as an evolutionary process in a population of ideas. These analogies have so far mostly been established in deterministic models, and memory loss in learning has been seen to act similarly to mutation in evolution. We here propose a representation of reinforcement learning as a stochastic process in finite ‘populations of ideas’. The resulting birth-death dynamics has absorbing states and allows for the extinction or fixation of ideas, marking a key difference to mutation-selection processes in finite populations. We characterize the outcome of evolution in populations of ideas for several classes of symmetric and asymmetric games. PMID:28098244

  3. Monitoring Tree Population Dynamics in Arid Zone Through Multiple Temporal Scales: Integration of Spatial Analysis, Change Detection and Field Long Term Monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isaacson, S.; Rachmilevitch, S.; Ephrath, J. E.; Maman, S.; Blumberg, D. G.

    2016-06-01

    High mortality rates and lack of recruitment in the acacia populations throughout the Negev Desert and the Arava rift valley of Israel have been reported in previous studies. However, it is difficult to determine whether these reports can be evidence to a significant decline trend of the trees populations. This is because of the slow dynamic processes of acaia tree populations and the lack of long term continuous monitoring data. We suggest a new data analysis technique that expands the time scope of the field long term monitoring of trees in arid environments. This will enables us to improve our understanding of the spatial and temporal changes of these populations. We implemented two different approaches in order to expand the time scope of the acacia population field survey: (1) individual based tree change detection using Corona satellite images and (2) spatial analysis of trees population, converting spatial data into temporal data. The next step was to integrate the results of the two analysis techniques (change detection and spatial analysis) with field monitoring. This technique can be implemented to other tree populations in arid environments to help assess the vegetation conditions and dynamics of those ecosystems.

  4. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub.

    PubMed

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M; Caldeira, Maria C; Clemente, Adelaide S; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N

    2016-01-01

    Plant-animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs.

  5. Too Many Is Too Bad: Long-Term Net Negative Effects of High Density Ungulate Populations on a Dominant Mediterranean Shrub

    PubMed Central

    Lecomte, Xavier; Fedriani, José M.; Caldeira, Maria C.; Clemente, Adelaide S.; Olmi, Alessandro; Bugalho, Miguel N.

    2016-01-01

    Plant–animal interactions imply costs and benefits with net balance depending on interacting species and ecological context. Ungulates, in particular, confer costs (e.g., plant leaf consumption, flower bud predation) and benefits (e.g., plant overcompensation, seed dispersal) to plants. Magnitude of costs and benefits may be altered by habitat management or ecological conditions favoring high density ungulate populations. Little is known however on whether plant costs or benefits predominate over the years, or the long-term outcomes of plant-animal interactions in habitat types sustaining high density ungulate populations. We investigated how high density ungulate populations alter plant costs and benefits by quantifying ungulate long-term effects on the shrub Cistus ladanifer (Cistaceae) individual size, seed weight and number, seed bank, and population density, through a 12-year ungulate exclusion experiment in a Mediterranean scrubland. We monitored plant size and flower buds in plants exposed or protected from ungulates and number of developed capsules and seeds consumed (potential seed dispersal) by ungulates during three reproductive seasons. We found that ungulates negatively affected shrub size and led to a dramatically decline of shrub reproductive structures and seed production, affecting the plant reproductive cycle. Number of buds was 27 times higher and number of developed seed 5 times higher in ungulate-excluded as compared to ungulate-exposed plots. After 9 years of ungulate exclusion, the C. ladanifer seed bank was 2.6 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. The population density of C. ladanifer was 4 times higher in ungulate-excluded plots. Our long-term experiment showed that high density ungulate populations can alter plant-animal interactions by reducing plant benefits and increasing plant costs. PMID:27387134

  6. Preliminary inconclusive results of a randomised double blinded cross-over pilot trial in long-term-care dwelling elderly assessing the feasibility of stochastic resonance whole-body vibration.

    PubMed

    Rogan, Slavko; Radlinger, Lorenz; Schmidtbleicher, Dietmar; de Bie, Rob A; de Bruin, Eling D

    2015-01-01

    This randomised double-blinded controlled cross-over pilot study examined feasibility and preliminary effects of stochastic resonance whole-body vibration training applied in long term care elderly. Nine long term care elderly were recruited and randomized to group A (6 Hz, Noise 4 SR-WBV/ Sham) or B (Sham / 1 Hz, Noise 1 SR-WBV). Feasibility outcomes included recruitment rate, attrition, adherence and safety. Physical performance outcomes focused on the Expanded Timed Get Up-and-Go (ETGUG) test, the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), and lower extremity muscle strength. Of 24 subjects initially approached 9 started and 5 completed the study resulting in 37.5 recruitment, 44.4 attrition and 81.7 % adherence rates. No adverse events were reported. There is more evidence of improved performance levels in the SR-WBV treatment group with significant differences in average change for isometric rate of force development (p = 0.016 left leg; p = 0.028 right leg). No statistical significance was reached for other parameters. The findings of this study indicate that the used training protocol for long term care elderly is feasible, however, requires more closely monitoring of participants; e.g. needs protocol modifications that target improved compliance with the intervention in this setting. SR-WBV shows beneficial effects on physical performance for those adhering to the intervention. U.S. National Institutes of Health NCT01543243.

  7. Differential effects of pentylenetetrazol-kindling on long-term potentiation of population excitatory postsynaptic potentials and population spikes in the CA1 region of rat hippocampus.

    PubMed

    Palizvan, M R; Fathollahi, Y; Semnanian, S; Hajezadeh, S; Mirnajafizadh, J

    2001-04-13

    The effects of pentylenetetrazol-kindling on synaptic transmission and the effectiveness of θ pattern primed-bursts (PBs) for the induction of long-term potentiation (LTP) of population excitatory postsynaptic potentials and population spikes were investigated in hippocampal CA1 of pentylenetetrazol-kindled rats. Experiments were carried out in the control and kindled animals at two post-kindling periods, i.e., 48-144 h (early phase) and 30-33 days (long lasting phase). Field potentials (population excitatory postsynaptic potentials, pEPSPs; and population spikes, PSs) were recorded at the stratum radiatum and the stratum pyramidale following stimulation of the stratum fibers, respectively. PBs were delivered to stratum fibers and PB potentiation was assessed. The results showed that 48-144 h after kindling there was no significant difference for pEPSP slope and PS amplitude between two groups. But at 30-33 days after kindling, the pEPSP slope in the stratum radiatum of kindled animals decreased, whereas the amplitude of PSs increased compared to those of controls. Shortly after kindling, control animals had normal LTP of pEPSP slope and PS amplitude in response to PBs, but kindled rats lack LTP of pEPSP slope and PBs induced LTP of PS amplitude in most of kindled animals. In 30-33 days after kindling, PB potentiation was not observed in the stratum radiatum of kindled animals but PBs induced LTP of PS amplitude, which was significantly greater than that of control animals. The effect is compatible with the hypothesis, which postulates kindling-associated functional deficit in hippocampus, especially CA1, as an explanation for the behavioral deficits seen with the kindling model of epilepsy.

  8. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management--Part A: methodology.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, an inexact fuzzy chance-constrained two-stage mixed-integer linear programming (IFCTIP) approach is proposed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing inexact two-stage programming and mixed-integer linear programming techniques by incorporating uncertainties expressed as multiple uncertainties of intervals and dual probability distributions within a general optimization framework. The developed method can provide an effective linkage between the predefined environmental policies and the associated economic implications. Four special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it provides a linkage to predefined policies that have to be respected when a modeling effort is undertaken; secondly, it is useful for tackling uncertainties presented as intervals, probabilities, fuzzy sets and their incorporation; thirdly, it facilitates dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period, multi-level, and multi-option context; fourthly, the penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised solid waste-generation rates are violated. In a companion paper, the developed method is applied to a real case for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada.

  9. Long-Term Changes in Cyanobacteria Populations in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel: An Eco-Physiological Outlook

    PubMed Central

    Hadas, Ora; Kaplan, Aaron; Sukenik, Assaf

    2015-01-01

    The long-term record of cyanobacteria abundance in Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), Israel, demonstrates changes in cyanobacteria abundance and composition in the last five decades. New invasive species of the order Nostocales (Aphanizomenon ovalisporum and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii) became part of the annual phytoplankton assemblage during summer-autumn. Concomitantly, bloom events of Microcystis sp. (Chroococcales) during winter-spring intensified. These changes in cyanobacteria pattern may be partly attributed to the management policy in Lake Kinneret’s vicinity and watershed aimed to reduce effluent discharge to the lake and partly to climate changes in the region; i.e., increased water column temperature, less wind and reduced precipitation. The gradual decrease in the concentration of total and dissolved phosphorus and total and dissolved nitrogen and an increase in alkalinity, pH and salinity, combined with the physiological features of cyanobacteria, probably contributed to the success of cyanobacteria. The data presented here indicate that the trend of the continuous decline of nutrients may not be sufficient to reduce and to control the abundance and proliferation of toxic and non-toxic cyanobacteria. PMID:25664964

  10. Effect of liver cirrhosis on long-term outcomes after acute respiratory failure: A population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Lai, Chih-Cheng; Ho, Chung-Han; Cheng, Kuo-Chen; Chao, Chien-Ming; Chen, Chin-Ming; Chou, Willy

    2017-01-01

    AIM To assessed the effect of liver cirrhosis (LC) on the poorly understood long-term mortality risk after first-ever mechanical ventilation (1-MV) for acute respiratory failure. METHODS All patients in Taiwan given a 1-MV between 1997 and 2013 were identified in Taiwan’s Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000. Each patient with LC was individually matched, using a propensity-score method, to two patients without LC. The primary outcome was death after a 1-MV. RESULTS A total of 16653 patients were enrolled: 5551 LC-positive (LC[Pos]) patients, including 1732 with cryptogenic LCs and 11102 LC-negative (LC[Neg]) controls. LC[Pos] patients had more organ failures and were more likely to be admitted to medical department than were LC[Neg] controls. LC[Pos] patients had a significantly lower survival rate (AHR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.32-1.44). Moreover, the mortality risk was significantly higher for patients with non-cryptogenic LC than for patients with cryptogenic LC (AHR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.32-1.54) and patients without LC (AHR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.32-1.54). However, there was no significant difference between patients with cryptogenic and without LC (HR = 1.05, 95%CI: 0.98-1.12). CONCLUSION LC, especially non-cryptogenic LC, significantly increases the risk of death after a 1-MV. PMID:28405148

  11. Comparison of indigenous and exogenous microbial populations during slurry phase biodegradation of long-term hydrocarbon-contaminated soil.

    PubMed

    Aburto-Medina, Arturo; Adetutu, Eric M; Aleer, Sam; Weber, John; Patil, Sayali S; Sheppard, Petra J; Ball, Andrew S; Juhasz, Albert L

    2012-11-01

    In this study, a number of slurry-phase strategies were trialled over a 42 day period in order to determine the efficacy of bioremediation for long-term hydrocarbon-contaminated soil (145 g kg(-1) C(10)-C(40)). The addition of activated sludge and nutrients to slurries (bioaugmentation) resulted in enhanced hydrocarbon removal (51.6 ± 8.5 %) compared to treatments receiving only nutrients (enhanced natural attenuation [ENA]; 41.3 ± 6.4 %) or no amendments (natural attenuation; no significant hydrocarbon removal, P < 0.01). This data suggests that the microbial community in the activated sludge inoculum contributed to the enhanced removal of hydrocarbons in ENA slurries. Microbial diversity in slurries was monitored using DGGE with dominant bands excised and sequenced for identification. Applying the different bioremediation strategies resulted in the formation of four distinct community clusters associated with the activated sludge (inoculum), bioaugmentation strategy at day 0, bioaugmentation strategy at weeks 2-6 and slurries with autoclaved sludge and nutrient additions (bioaugmentation negative control). While hydrocarbon-degrading bacteria genera (e.g. Aquabacterium and Haliscomenobacter) were associated with the hydrocarbon-contaminated soil, bioaugmentation of soil slurries with activated sludge resulted in the introduction of bacteria associated with hydrocarbon degradation (Burkholderiales order and Klebsiella genera) which presumably contributed to the enhanced efficacy for this slurry strategy.

  12. Evaluation of long-term community recovery from Hurricane Andrew: sources of assistance received by population sub-groups.

    PubMed

    McDonnell, S; Troiano, R P; Barker, N; Noji, E; Hlady, W G; Hopkins, R

    1995-12-01

    Two three-stage cluster surveys were conducted in South Dade County, Florida, 14 months apart, to assess recovery following Hurricane Andrew. Response rates were 75 per cent and 84 per cent. Sources of assistance used in recovery from Hurricane Andrew differed according to race, per capita income, ethnicity, and education. Reports of improved living situation post-hurricane were not associated with receiving relief assistance, but reports of a worse situation were associated with loss of income, being exploited, or job loss. The number of households reporting problems with crime and community violence doubled between the two surveys. Disaster relief efforts had less impact on subjective long-term recovery than did job or income loss or housing repair difficulties. Existing sources of assistance were used more often than specific post-hurricane relief resources. The demographic make-up of a community may determine which are the most effective means to inform them after a disaster and what sources of assistance may be useful.

  13. A Genome-Wide Scan for Evidence of Selection in a Maize Population Under Long-Term Artificial Selection for Ear Number

    PubMed Central

    Beissinger, Timothy M.; Hirsch, Candice N.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Deshpande, Shweta; Barry, Kerrie; Buell, C. Robin; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; Gianola, Daniel; de Leon, Natalia

    2014-01-01

    A genome-wide scan to detect evidence of selection was conducted in the Golden Glow maize long-term selection population. The population had been subjected to selection for increased number of ears per plant for 30 generations, with an empirically estimated effective population size ranging from 384 to 667 individuals and an increase of more than threefold in the number of ears per plant. Allele frequencies at >1.2 million single-nucleotide polymorphism loci were estimated from pooled whole-genome resequencing data, and FST values across sliding windows were employed to assess divergence between the population preselection and the population postselection. Twenty-eight highly divergent regions were identified, with half of these regions providing gene-level resolution on potentially selected variants. Approximately 93% of the divergent regions do not demonstrate a significant decrease in heterozygosity, which suggests that they are not approaching fixation. Also, most regions display a pattern consistent with a soft-sweep model as opposed to a hard-sweep model, suggesting that selection mostly operated on standing genetic variation. For at least 25% of the regions, results suggest that selection operated on variants located outside of currently annotated coding regions. These results provide insights into the underlying genetic effects of long-term artificial selection and identification of putative genetic elements underlying number of ears per plant in maize. PMID:24381334

  14. A genome-wide scan for evidence of selection in a maize population under long-term artificial selection for ear number.

    PubMed

    Beissinger, Timothy M; Hirsch, Candice N; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Deshpande, Shweta; Barry, Kerrie; Buell, C Robin; Kaeppler, Shawn M; Gianola, Daniel; de Leon, Natalia

    2014-03-01

    A genome-wide scan to detect evidence of selection was conducted in the Golden Glow maize long-term selection population. The population had been subjected to selection for increased number of ears per plant for 30 generations, with an empirically estimated effective population size ranging from 384 to 667 individuals and an increase of more than threefold in the number of ears per plant. Allele frequencies at >1.2 million single-nucleotide polymorphism loci were estimated from pooled whole-genome resequencing data, and FST values across sliding windows were employed to assess divergence between the population preselection and the population postselection. Twenty-eight highly divergent regions were identified, with half of these regions providing gene-level resolution on potentially selected variants. Approximately 93% of the divergent regions do not demonstrate a significant decrease in heterozygosity, which suggests that they are not approaching fixation. Also, most regions display a pattern consistent with a soft-sweep model as opposed to a hard-sweep model, suggesting that selection mostly operated on standing genetic variation. For at least 25% of the regions, results suggest that selection operated on variants located outside of currently annotated coding regions. These results provide insights into the underlying genetic effects of long-term artificial selection and identification of putative genetic elements underlying number of ears per plant in maize.

  15. Wildlife disease ecology from the individual to the population: Insights from a long-term study of a naturally infected European badger population.

    PubMed

    McDonald, Jenni L; Robertson, Andrew; Silk, Matthew J

    2017-08-16

    Long-term individual-based datasets on host-pathogen systems are a rare and valuable resource for understanding the infectious disease dynamics in wildlife. A study of European badgers (Meles meles) naturally infected with bovine tuberculosis (bTB) at Woodchester Park in Gloucestershire (UK) has produced a unique dataset, facilitating investigation of a diverse range of epidemiological and ecological questions with implications for disease management. Since the 1970s, this badger population has been monitored with a systematic mark-recapture regime yielding a dataset of >15,000 captures of >3,000 individuals, providing detailed individual life-history, morphometric, genetic, reproductive and disease data. The annual prevalence of bTB in the Woodchester Park badger population exhibits no straightforward relationship with population density, and both the incidence and prevalence of Mycobacterium bovis show marked variation in space. The study has revealed phenotypic traits that are critical for understanding the social structure of badger populations along with mechanisms vital for understanding disease spread at different spatial resolutions. Woodchester-based studies have provided key insights into how host ecology can influence infection at different spatial and temporal scales. Specifically, it has revealed heterogeneity in epidemiological parameters; intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting population dynamics; provided insights into senescence and individual life histories; and revealed consistent individual variation in foraging patterns, refuge use and social interactions. An improved understanding of ecological and epidemiological processes is imperative for effective disease management. Woodchester Park research has provided information of direct relevance to bTB management, and a better appreciation of the role of individual heterogeneity in disease transmission can contribute further in this regard. The Woodchester Park study system now offers a rare

  16. Obesity during pregnancy and long-term risk for ophthalmic morbidity - a population-based study with a follow-up of more than a decade.

    PubMed

    Sasson, Inbal; Beharier, Ofer; Sergienko, Ruslan; Szaingurten-Solodkin, Irit; Kessous, Roy; Belfair, Nadav J; Sheiner, Eyal

    2016-09-01

    To investigate whether patients with a history of obesity during pregnancy have an increased risk for subsequent long-term ophthalmic complications, after controlling for diabetes and preeclampsia. A population-based study compared the incidence of long-term maternal ophthalmic complications in a cohort of women with and without a history of obesity during pregnancy. Deliveries occurred between the years 1988 and 2013, with a mean follow-up duration of 12 years. During the study period 106 220 deliveries met the inclusion criteria; 2.2% (n = 2353) occurred in patients with a diagnosis of obesity during at least one of their pregnancies. These patients had a significantly higher incidence of ophthalmic complications in total and specifically of diabetic retinopathy. Using a Kaplan-Meier survival curve, we found that patients with a history of obesity during pregnancy had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of ophthalmic complications. Using a Cox proportional hazards model, adjusted for confounders such as maternal age, preeclampsia and diabetes mellitus, we found obesity during pregnancy remained independently associated with ophthalmic complications (adjusted HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.4-4.2; p = 0.003). Obesity during pregnancy is an independent risk factor for long-term ophthalmic complications, and specifically diabetic retinopathy.

  17. Risk factors for disability pension in a population-based cohort of men and women on long-term sick leave in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Karlsson, Nadine E; Carstensen, John M; Gjesdal, Sturla; Alexanderson, Kristina A E

    2008-06-01

    Knowledge on predictors of disability pension is very limited. The aim was to assess the importance of sick-leave diagnosis and socio-demographic variables as risk factors for disability pension among individuals on long-term sickness absence and to compare these factors by gender and over time. A prospective population-based cohort study in Ostergötland County, Sweden, included 19,379 individuals who, in 1985-87, were aged 16-60 years and had a new spell of long-term sickness absence lasting > or =56 days. Follow-up was done in two time frames: 0-5 and 6-10 years after inclusion. The risk of disability pension in relation to sick-leave diagnosis and socio-demographic factors was assessed by Cox proportional hazard regression analysis. In 5 years, after inclusion, 28% of the cohort had been granted disability pension. Those with higher age, low income, previous sick leave, no employment and non-Swedish origin had higher risk of disability pension, while those with young children had lower risk. Considering the inclusion diagnosis, the pattern differed between men and women (P < 0.001). Among men, those with mental disorders had the highest risk and among women those with musculoskeletal disorders. Except for income, the effect of which was reversed over time, the overall pattern of disability pension predictors remained 6-10 years after inclusion but was attenuated. Besides socio-demographic risk factors, the sick-leave diagnoses constitute an important both medium and long-term predictor of disability pension among both men and women on long-term sickness absence.

  18. Long Term Prognosis

    MedlinePlus

    ... TERM PROGNOSIS The long-term outlook of pediatric cardiomyopathy continues to be unpredictable because it occurs with ... a child also depends on the type of cardiomyopathy and the stage the disease is first diagnosed. ...

  19. Inexact fuzzy-stochastic mixed integer programming approach for long-term planning of waste management---Part B: case study.

    PubMed

    Guo, P; Huang, G H

    2009-01-01

    In this study, a solid waste decision-support system was developed for the long-term planning of waste management in the City of Regina, Canada. Interactions among various system components, objectives, and constraints will be analyzed. Issues concerning planning for cost-effective diversion and prolongation of the landfill will be addressed. Decisions of system-capacity expansion and waste allocation within a multi-facility, multi-option, and multi-period context will be obtained. The obtained results would provide useful information and decision-support for the City's solid waste management and planning. In the application, four scenarios are considered. Through the above scenario analyses under different waste-management policies, useful decision support for the City's solid waste managers and decision makers was generated. Analyses for the effects of varied policies (for allowable waste flows to different facilities) under 35 and 50% diversion goals were also undertaken. Tradeoffs among system cost and constraint-violation risk were analyzed. Generally, a policy with lower allowable waste-flow levels corresponded to a lower system cost under advantageous conditions but, at the same time, a higher penalty when such allowances were violated. A policy with higher allowable flow levels corresponded to a higher cost under disadvantageous conditions. The modeling results were useful for (i) scheduling adequate time and capacity for long-term planning of the facility development and/or expansion in the city's waste management system, (ii) adjusting of the existing waste flow allocation patterns to satisfy the city's diversion goal, and (iii) generating of desired policies for managing the city's waste generation, collection and disposal.

  20. A Population-Based Study of Childhood Sexual Contact in China: Prevalence and Long-Term Consequences

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Ye; Parish, William L.; Laumann, Edward O.

    2008-01-01

    Objectives This study provides national estimates of the prevalence of childhood sexual contact and its association with sexual well-being and psychological distress among adults in China. Method A national stratified probability sample of 1,519 women and 1,475 men aged 20 to 64 years in urban China completed a computer-administered survey in 1999–2000. The data from this survey on both adult-to-child and peer-to-peer sexual contact before age 14 were subjected to descriptive and multivariate analyses that were adjusted for both sampling weights and sampling design. Results The overall prevalence of reported childhood sexual contact was 4.2%, with prevalence higher among men (5.1%) than among women (3.3%) and higher among those aged 20–29 years (8.3%). Childhood sexual contact was associated with multiplex consequences, including hyper-sexuality (high levels of masturbation, thoughts about sex, varieties of sexual practices, partner turnover), adult sexual victimization (unwanted sex, unwanted sexual acts, sexual harassment), sexual difficulties (genitor-urinary symptoms, sexually transmitted infections, sexual dysfunctions), and psychological distress. Psychological distress was largely mediated by adult sexual victimization, sexual difficulties, and hyper-sexuality. Conclusions Despite the relatively modest prevalence of childhood sexual contact among Chinese adults, the association with multiplex adult outcomes suggests that much as in the West early sexual contact is a significant issue. Practice Implications The findings underscore the importance of public education about childhood sexual contact and abuse in China. The findings suggest a need for public health campaigns that tackle the stigma associated with being abused and encourage victims to report abusive behavior to proper sources. The findings are also consistent with new efforts to alleviate the negative long-term impact of childhood sexual abuse. PMID:18614231

  1. Long-Term Outcomes of Systemic Lupus Erythematous Patients after Pregnancy: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Chiu, Ting-Fang; Chuang, Ya-Wen; Lin, Cheng-Li; Yu, Tung-Min; Chung, Mu-Chi; Li, Chi-Yuan; Chung, Chi-Jung; Ho, Wen-Chao

    2016-01-01

    Background Data on long-term maternal outcomes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are lacking. The study aimed to explore the relationships among SLE, pregnancy, outcomes of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and overall mortality. Methods We established a retrospective cohort study consisting of four cohorts: pregnant (case cohort) and nonpregnant SLE patients, as well as pregnant and nonpregnant non-SLE patients. One case cohort and three comparison cohorts were matched by age at first pregnancy and index date of pregnancy by using the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Dataset. All study subjects were selected based on the index date to the occurrence of ESRD or overall death. Cox proportional hazard regression models and Kaplan–Meier curves were used in the analysis. Results SLE pregnant patients exhibited significantly increased risk of ESRD after adjusting for other important confounders, including immunosuppressant and parity (HR = 3.19, 95% CI: 1.35–7.52 for pregnant non-SLE; and HR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.24–6.15 for nonpregnant non-SLE patients). No significant differences in ESRD incidence were observed in pregnant and nonpregnant SLE patients. Pregnant SLE patients exhibited better clinical condition at the baseline and a significantly lower risk of overall mortality than nonpregnant SLE patients. Conclusions Our data support current recommendations for SLE patients to avoid pregnancy until disease activity is quiescent. Multicenter recruitment and clinical information can be used to further examine the association of SLE and ESRD (or mortality) after pregnancy. PMID:27992461

  2. Long-term detection of atrial fibrillation with insertable cardiac monitors in a real-world cryptogenic stroke population.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, Paul D; Rogers, John D; Ferreira, Scott W; Nichols, Allan J; Richards, Mark; Koehler, Jodi L; Sarkar, Shantanu

    2017-10-01

    The long-term incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients has been explored in carefully controlled clinical trials but real-world data are limited. We investigated the two-year incidence of AF in real-world clinical practice among a large cohort of patients with an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM) placed for AF detection following CS. Patients in the de-identified Medtronic Discovery™ Link database who received an ICM (Reveal LINQ™) for the purpose of AF detection following CS were included and monitored for up to 2years. All detected AF episodes (≥2min) were adjudicated. We quantified the AF detection rate using Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, analyzed the median time to initial detection of AF, and simulated the ability of various intermittent monitoring strategies to detect AF. A total of 1247 patients (65.3±13.0years, 53% male) were included and followed for 579±222days. AF episodes (n=4183) were detected in 238 patients, resulting in an AF detection rate of 21.5% at 2years. The median time to AF detection was 112 [IQR 35-293] days. Intermittent monitoring for AF detection was inferior to continuous ICM monitoring with sensitivities ranging from 2.9% (annual 24-hour Holter) to 29.9% (quarterly 7-day Holters), p<0.001. AF episodes were detected via continuous monitoring with ICMs in approximately 1 of every 5 CS patients within 2years of follow-up. The vast majority of patients with AF would not have been detected with conventional external ambulatory monitors. ICMs should therefore be considered in the evaluation of CS patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term major adverse cardiovascular events: a nationwide population-based, propensity score-matched, cohort study.

    PubMed

    Chang, Li-Hsin; Lin, Liang-Yu; Tsai, Ming-Tsun; How, Chorng-Kuang; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Hsieh, Vivian Chia-Rong; Hu, Sung-Yuan; Hsieh, Ming-Shun

    2016-08-23

    Hyperglycaemic crisis was associated with significant intrahospital morbidity and mortality. However, the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and long-term cardiovascular outcomes remained unknown. This study aimed to investigate the association between hyperglycaemic crisis and subsequent long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). This population-based cohort study was conducted using data from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database for the period of 1996-2012. A total of 2171 diabetic patients with hyperglycaemic crisis fit the inclusion criteria. Propensity score matching was used to match the baseline characteristics of the study cohort to construct a comparison cohort which comprised 8684 diabetic patients without hyperglycaemic crisis. The risk of long-term MACEs was compared between the two cohorts. Six hundred and seventy-six MACEs occurred in the study cohort and the event rate was higher than that in the comparison cohort (31.1% vs 24.1%, p<0.001). Patients with hyperglycaemic crisis were associated with a higher risk of long-term MACEs even after adjusting for all baseline characteristics and medications (adjusted HR=1.76, 95% CI 1.62 to 1.92, p<0.001). Acute myocardial infarction had the highest adjusted HR (adjusted HR=2.19, 95% CI 1.75 to 2.75, p<0.001) in the four types of MACEs, followed by congestive heart failure (adjusted HR=1.97, 95% CI 1.70 to 2.28, p<0.001). Younger patients with hyperglycaemic crisis had a higher risk of MACEs than older patients (adjusted HR=2.69 for patients aged 20-39 years vs adjusted HR=1.58 for patients aged >65 years). Hyperglycaemic crisis was significantly associated with long-term MACEs, especially in the young population. Further prospective longitudinal study should be conducted for validation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  4. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  5. Second Cancers After Fractionated Radiotherapy: Stochastic Population Dynamics Effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sachs, Rainer K.; Shuryak, Igor; Brenner, David; Fakir, Hatim; Hahnfeldt, Philip

    2007-01-01

    When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well characterized doses of a well studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze ifradiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this I I model. Combining Monte Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance >> mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; b) weekend

  6. Stochastic population dynamics: The Poisson approximation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solari, Hernán G.; Natiello, Mario A.

    2003-03-01

    We introduce an approximation to stochastic population dynamics based on almost independent Poisson processes whose parameters obey a set of coupled ordinary differential equations. The approximation applies to systems that evolve in terms of events such as death, birth, contagion, emission, absorption, etc., and we assume that the event-rates satisfy a generalized mass-action law. The dynamics of the populations is then the result of the projection from the space of events into the space of populations that determine the state of the system (phase space). The properties of the Poisson approximation are studied in detail. Especially, error bounds for the moment generating function and the generating function receive particular attention. The deterministic approximation for the population fractions and the Langevin-type approximation for the fluctuations around the mean value are recovered within the framework of the Poisson approximation as particular limit cases. However, the proposed framework allows to treat other limit cases and general situations with small populations that lie outside the scope of the standard approaches. The Poisson approximation can be viewed as a general (numerical) integration scheme for this family of problems in population dynamics.

  7. Paleoecological studies on variability in marine fish populations: A long-term perspective on the impacts of climatic change on marine ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finney, Bruce P.; Alheit, Jürgen; Emeis, Kay-Christian; Field, David B.; Gutiérrez, Dimitri; Struck, Ulrich

    2010-02-01

    The use of historical fishing records to understand relationships between climatic change and fish abundance is limited by the relatively short duration of these records, and complications due to the strong influence of human activity in addition to climatic change. Sedimentary records containing scales, bones or geochemical proxies of variability in fish populations provide unique insights on long-term ecosystem dynamics and relationships with climatic change. Available records from Holocene sediments are summarized and synthesized. The records are from several widespread locations near or along the continental margins of the South Atlantic and Pacific oceans, including Alaska, USA (Pacific salmon), Saanich and Effingham Inlets, British Columbia, Canada (pelagic fish), Santa Barbara Basin, California, USA (Northern anchovies and Pacific sardines), Gulf of California, Mexico (Pacific sardines, Northern anchovies and Pacific hake), Peru upwelling system (sardines, anchovies and hake), and Benguela Current System, South Africa (sardines, anchovies and hake). These records demonstrate that fish population sizes are not constant, and varied significantly over a range of time scales prior to the advent of large-scale commercial fishing. In addition to the decadal-scale variability commonly observed in historical records, the long-term records reveal substantial variability over centennial and millennial time scales. Shifts in abundance are often, but not always, correlated with regional and/or global climatic changes. The long-term perspective reveals different patterns of variability in fish populations, as well as fish-climate relationships, than suggested by analysis of historical records. Many records suggest prominent changes in fish abundance at ca. 1000-1200 AD, during the Little Ice Age, and during the transition at the end of the Little Ice Age in the 19th century that may be correlative, and that were likely driven by major hemispheric or global

  8. Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals.

    PubMed

    Cordes, Line S; Thompson, Paul M

    2013-08-07

    Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines.

  9. Variation in breeding phenology provides insights into drivers of long-term population change in harbour seals

    PubMed Central

    Cordes, Line S.; Thompson, Paul M.

    2013-01-01

    Phenological trends provide important indicators of environmental change and population dynamics. However, the use of untested population-level measures can lead to incorrect conclusions about phenological trends, particularly when changes in population structure or density are ignored. We used individual-based estimates of birth date and lactation duration of harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) to investigate energetic consequences of changes in pupping phenology. Using generalized linear mixed models, we first demonstrate annual variation in pupping phenology. Second, we show a negative relationship between lactation duration and the timing of pupping, indicating that females who pup early nurse their pups longer, thereby highlighting lactation duration as a useful proxy of female condition and resource availability. Third, individual-based data were used to derive a population-level proxy that demonstrated an advance in pupping date over the last 25 years, co-incident with a reduction in population abundance that resulted from fisheries-related shootings. These findings demonstrate that phenological studies examining the impacts of climate change on mammal populations must carefully control for changes in population density and highlight how joint investigations of phenological and demographic change provide insights into the drivers of population declines. PMID:23782881

  10. Density-Dependent Recycling Promotes the Long-Term Survival of Bacterial Populations during Periods of Starvation

    PubMed Central

    Takano, Sotaro; Pawlowska, Bogna J.; Gudelj, Ivana

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT The amount of natural resources in the Earth’s environment is in flux, which can trigger catastrophic collapses of ecosystems. How populations survive under nutrient-poor conditions is a central question in ecology. Curiously, some bacteria persist for a long time in nutrient-poor environments. Although this survival may be accomplished through cell death and the recycling of dead cells, the importance of these processes and the mechanisms underlying the survival of the populations have not been quantitated. Here, we use microbial laboratory experiments and mathematical models to demonstrate that death and recycling are essential activities for the maintenance of cell survival. We also show that the behavior of the survivors is governed by population density feedback, wherein growth is limited not only by the available resources but also by the population density. The numerical simulations suggest that population density-dependent recycling could be an advantageous behavior under starvation conditions. PMID:28174316

  11. Could residual oil from the Exxon Valdez spill create a long-term population "sink" for sea otters in Alaska?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Doak, Daniel F.; Ballachey, Brenda E.; Bodkin, James L.

    2011-01-01

    Over 20 years ago, the Exxon Valdez oil tanker spilled 42 million L of crude oil into the waters of Prince William Sound, Alaska, USA. At the time of the spill, the sea otter (Enhydra lutris) population inhabiting the spill area suffered substantial acute injuries and loss. Subsequent research has resulted in one of the best-studied species responses to an oil spill in history. However, the question remains: Is the spill still influencing the Prince William Sound sea otter population? Here we fit time-varying population models to data for the sea otter population of western Prince William Sound to quantify the duration and extent of mortality effects from the spill. We hypothesize that the patchy nature of residual oil left in the environment has created a source-sink population dynamic. We fit models using the age distributions of both living and dying animals and estimates of sea otter population size to predict the number of sea otters in the hypothesized sink population and the number lost to this sink due to chronic exposure to residual oil. Our results suggest that the sink population has remained at just over 900 individuals (95% CI: 606-960) between 1990 and 2009, during which time prime-age survival remained 2-6% below pre-spill levels. This reduced survival led to chronic losses of ???900 animals over the past two decades, which is similar in magnitude to the number of sea otter deaths documented in western Prince William Sound during the acute phase of the spill. However, the unaffected source population appears to be counterbalancing these losses, with the model indicating that the sea otter population increased from ???2150 individuals in 1990 to nearly 3000 in 2009. The most optimistic interpretation of our results suggests that mortality effects dissipated between 2005 and 2007. Our results suggest that residual oil can affect wildlife populations on time scales much longer than previously believed and that cumulative chronic effects can be as

  12. Evidence of genetic distinction and long-term population decline in wolves (Canis lupus) in the Italian Apennines.

    PubMed

    Lucchini, V; Galov, A; Randi, E

    2004-03-01

    Historical information suggests the occurrence of an extensive human-caused contraction in the distribution range of wolves (Canis lupus) during the last few centuries in Europe. Wolves disappeared from the Alps in the 1920s, and thereafter continued to decline in peninsular Italy until the 1970s, when approximately 100 individuals survived, isolated in the central Apennines. In this study we performed a coalescent analysis of multilocus DNA markers to infer patterns and timing of historical population changes in wolves surviving in the Apennines. This population showed a unique mitochondrial DNA control-region haplotype, the absence of private alleles and lower heterozygosity at microsatellite loci, as compared to other wolf populations. Multivariate, clustering and Bayesian assignment procedures consistently assigned all the wolf genotypes sampled in Italy to a single group, supporting their genetic distinction. Bottleneck tests showed evidences of population decline in the Italian wolves, but not in other populations. Results of a Bayesian coalescent model indicate that wolves in Italy underwent a 100- to 1000-fold population contraction over the past 2000-10,000 years. The population decline was stronger and longer in peninsular Italy than elsewhere in Europe, suggesting that wolves have apparently been genetically isolated for thousands of generations south of the Alps. Ice caps covering the Alps at the Last Glacial Maximum (c. 18,000 years before present), and the wide expansion of the Po River, which cut the alluvial plains throughout the Holocene, might have provided effective geographical barriers to wolf dispersal. More recently, the admixture of Alpine and Apennine wolf populations could have been prevented by deforestation, which was already widespread in the fifteenth century in northern Italy. This study suggests that, despite the high potential rates of dispersal and gene flow, local wolf populations may not have mixed for long periods of time.

  13. Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland's warbler after successful recovery

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brown, Donald J.; Ribic, Christine; Donner, Deahn M.; Nelson, Mark D.; Bocetti, Carol I.; Deloria-Sheffield, Christie M.

    2017-01-01

    Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence the population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001.To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included the continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to the changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal programme.Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate that the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: (i) continuation of current management practices and (ii) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming that cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines.Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates that the Kirtland's warbler population

  14. Landscape resistance to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects for a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Considerable fragmentation of native habitats and loss of forest cover has occurred in association with agricultural development over the past 50 years in o...

  15. Landscape resistance to dispersal: Predicting long-term effects for a small and isolated wolf population in southwestern Manitoba, Canada

    EPA Science Inventory

    Landscape fragmentation affects wildlife population viability, in part through the effects it has on individual dispersal. Considerable fragmentation of native habitats and loss of forest cover has occurred in association with agricultural development over the past 50 years in o...

  16. Long-term monitoring of feral genetically modified herbicide-tolerant Brassica napus populations around unloading Japanese ports

    PubMed Central

    Katsuta, Kensuke; Matsuo, Kazuhito; Yoshimura, Yasuyuki; Ohsawa, Ryo

    2015-01-01

    Genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) Brassica napus plants originating from seed spill have recently been found along roadsides leading from Japanese ports that unload oilseed rape. Such introductions have potential biodiversity effects (as defined by the Cartagena Protocol): these include replacement of native elements in the biota through competitive suppression or hybridization. We conducted surveys in the period 2006–2011 to assess such threats. We examined shifts in the population distribution and occurrence of GMHT plants in 1,029 volunteer introduced assemblages of B. napus, 1,169 of B. juncea, and 184 of B. rapa around 12 ports. GMHT B. napus was found around 10 of 12 ports, but its proportion in the populations varied greatly by year and location. Over the survey period, the distributions of a pure non-GMHT population around Tobata and a pure GMHT population around Hakata increased significantly. However, there was no common trend of population expansion or contraction around the 12 ports. Furthermore, we found no herbicide tolerant B. juncea and B. rapa plants derived from crosses with GMHT B. napus. Therefore, GMHT B. napus is not invading native vegetation surrounding its populations and not likely to cross with congeners in Japanese environment. PMID:26175624

  17. Long-term follow-up after epilepsy surgery in infancy and early childhood--a prospective population based observational study.

    PubMed

    Reinholdson, Jesper; Olsson, Ingrid; Edelvik, Anna; Hallböök, Tove; Lundgren, Johan; Rydenhag, Bertil; Malmgren, Kristina

    2015-08-01

    To describe 2-year and long-term outcomes (five or ten years) after resective epilepsy surgery in children operated before the age of four years. This prospective, population based, longitudinal study is based on data from the Swedish National Epilepsy Surgery Register 1995-2010. The following variables were analysed: seizure frequency, antiepileptic drug treatment (AED), neurological deficits, type of operation, histopathological diagnosis and perioperative complications. During the study period 47 children under four years had resective surgery. A majority had seizure onset within the first year of life, and the median age at surgery was two years and one month. Two thirds had neurodevelopmental abnormalities. Temporal lobe resection, frontal lobe resection and hemispherotomy predominated. A majority had malformations of cortical development. There was one major perioperative complication. At the 2-year follow-up, 21/47 children (45%) were seizure free, eight of whom were off medication. At the long-term follow-up, 16/32 (50%) were seizure-free and 11 of them off medication. Another ten (31%) had ≥75% reduction in seizure frequency. Fourteen children (44%) had sustained seizure freedom from surgery to the long-term follow-up. This is the first prospective, population based, longitudinal study to show that a favourable seizure outcome is achievable in a majority of infants and young children undergoing resective epilepsy surgery and that the improvements are consistent over time. Many can also stop taking AEDs. The findings emphasise the importance of early referral to epilepsy surgery evaluation in cases of medically intractable epilepsy in infants and young children. Copyright © 2015 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Strong "bottom-up" influences on small mammal populations: State-space model analyses from long-term studies.

    PubMed

    Flowerdew, John R; Amano, Tatsuya; Sutherland, William J

    2017-03-01

    "Bottom-up" influences, that is, masting, plus population density and climate, commonly influence woodland rodent demography. However, "top-down" influences (predation) also intervene. Here, we assess the impacts of masting, climate, and density on rodent populations placed in the context of what is known about "top-down" influences. To explain between-year variations in bank vole Myodes glareolus and wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus population demography, we applied a state-space model to 33 years of catch-mark-release live-trapping, winter temperature, and precise mast-collection data. Experimental mast additions aided interpretation. Rodent numbers in European ash Fraxinus excelsior woodland were estimated (May/June, November/December). December-March mean minimum daily temperature represented winter severity. Total marked adult mice/voles (and juveniles in May/June) provided density indices validated against a model-generated population estimate; this allowed estimation of the structure of a time-series model and the demographic impacts of the climatic/biological variables. During two winters of insignificant fruit-fall, 6.79 g/m(2) sterilized ash seed (as fruit) was distributed over an equivalent woodland similarly live-trapped. September-March fruit-fall strongly increased bank vole spring reproductive rate and winter and summer population growth rates; colder winters weakly reduced winter population growth. September-March fruit-fall and warmer winters marginally increased wood mouse spring reproductive rate and September-December fruit-fall weakly elevated summer population growth. Density dependence significantly reduced both species' population growth. Fruit-fall impacts on demography still appeared after a year. Experimental ash fruit addition confirmed its positive influence on bank vole winter population growth with probable moderation by colder temperatures. The models show the strong impact of masting as a "bottom-up" influence on rodent demography

  19. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences

    PubMed Central

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M.; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S.; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-01-01

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring. PMID:26511044

  20. Long-term decline in a red-winged blackbird population: ecological causes and sexual selection consequences

    PubMed Central

    Weatherhead, Patrick J

    2005-01-01

    Habitat loss and large-scale climate phenomena are widely implicated as causing decline in animal populations. I examined how both factors contributed to a precipitous decline in an Ontario red-winged blackbird (Agelaius phoeniceus) population using 16 years of data collected between 1974 and 1995. The decline was manifested as an almost 50% reduction in mean harem size, which reduced the opportunity for sexual selection threefold. Regional hay production, which should affect recruitment into the study population, also declined substantially. Correlation between blackbirds and hay may be coincidental, however, because annual changes in harem size were not associated with annual changes in hay production. This study coincided with an unprecedented positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Changes in harem size were correlated with winter NAO index values, suggesting that winter mortality contributed to the population decline. Positive correlation between harem size change and male return rates also supported the winter mortality hypothesis. Continued declines will cause this blackbird population to change from socially polygynous to socially monogamous. Study of red-winged blackbird winter ecology is needed to identify the proximate causes of mortality, whereas breeding studies can explore the consequences of relaxed sexual selection. PMID:16191645

  1. Predicting the effects of human developments on individual dolphins to understand potential long-term population consequences.

    PubMed

    Pirotta, Enrico; Harwood, John; Thompson, Paul M; New, Leslie; Cheney, Barbara; Arso, Monica; Hammond, Philip S; Donovan, Carl; Lusseau, David

    2015-11-07

    Human activities that impact wildlife do not necessarily remove individuals from populations. They may also change individual behaviour in ways that have sublethal effects. This has driven interest in developing analytical tools that predict the population consequences of short-term behavioural responses. In this study, we incorporate empirical information on the ecology of a population of bottlenose dolphins into an individual-based model that predicts how individuals' behavioural dynamics arise from their underlying motivational states, as well as their interaction with boat traffic and dredging activities. We simulate the potential effects of proposed coastal developments on this population and predict that the operational phase may affect animals' motivational states. For such results to be relevant for management, the effects on individuals' vital rates also need to be quantified. We investigate whether the relationship between an individual's exposure and the survival of its calves can be directly estimated using a Bayesian multi-stage model for calf survival. The results suggest that any effect on calf survival is probably small and that a significant relationship could only be detected in large, closely studied populations. Our work can be used to guide management decisions, accelerate the consenting process for coastal and offshore developments and design targeted monitoring.

  2. Reduced flight-to-light behaviour of moth populations exposed to long-term urban light pollution

    PubMed Central

    Ebert, Dieter

    2016-01-01

    The globally increasing light pollution is a well-recognized threat to ecosystems, with negative effects on human, animal and plant wellbeing. The most well-known and widely documented consequence of light pollution is the generally fatal attraction of nocturnal insects to artificial light sources. However, the evolutionary consequences are unknown. Here we report that moth populations from urban areas with high, globally relevant levels of light pollution over several decades show a significantly reduced flight-to-light behaviour compared with populations of the same species from pristine dark-sky habitats. Using a common garden setting, we reared moths from 10 different populations from early-instar larvae and experimentally compared their flight-to-light behaviour under standardized conditions. Moths from urban populations had a significant reduction in the flight-to-light behaviour compared with pristine populations. The reduced attraction to light sources of ‘city moths' may directly increase these individuals' survival and reproduction. We anticipate that it comes with a reduced mobility, which negatively affects foraging as well as colonization ability. As nocturnal insects are of eminent significance as pollinators and the primary food source of many vertebrates, an evolutionary change of the flight-to-light behaviour thereby potentially cascades across species interaction networks. PMID:27072407

  3. Reduced flight-to-light behaviour of moth populations exposed to long-term urban light pollution.

    PubMed

    Altermatt, Florian; Ebert, Dieter

    2016-04-01

    The globally increasing light pollution is a well-recognized threat to ecosystems, with negative effects on human, animal and plant wellbeing. The most well-known and widely documented consequence of light pollution is the generally fatal attraction of nocturnal insects to artificial light sources. However, the evolutionary consequences are unknown. Here we report that moth populations from urban areas with high, globally relevant levels of light pollution over several decades show a significantly reduced flight-to-light behaviour compared with populations of the same species from pristine dark-sky habitats. Using a common garden setting, we reared moths from 10 different populations from early-instar larvae and experimentally compared their flight-to-light behaviour under standardized conditions. Moths from urban populations had a significant reduction in the flight-to-light behaviour compared with pristine populations. The reduced attraction to light sources of 'city moths' may directly increase these individuals' survival and reproduction. We anticipate that it comes with a reduced mobility, which negatively affects foraging as well as colonization ability. As nocturnal insects are of eminent significance as pollinators and the primary food source of many vertebrates, an evolutionary change of the flight-to-light behaviour thereby potentially cascades across species interaction networks.

  4. A long-term study of Rattus norvegicus in the London borough of Enfield using baiting returns as an indicator of sewer population levels.

    PubMed Central

    Channon, D.; Cole, M.; Cole, L.

    2000-01-01

    This is a long-term study that investigates the dynamics of a population of Rattus norvegicus (Berk) inhabiting a sewerage system in London. Thirteen years (1986/7-1998/9) of data from sewer baiting records were analysed (a total of 35,478 records). Manholes were baited with the anticoagulant Brodifacoum (0.005%) on a pinhead oatmeal bait base. Time series analysis was conducted on the data set to determine the underlying trend of the data and the population fluctuations about this trend. An exponential curve was found to give an accurate and realistic fit to the data and indicated that the rat population had decreased over the study period. Decomposition analysis indicated a 5-year cycle best described fluctuations around this trend. PMID:11117969

  5. Secondary Surge Capacity: A Framework for Understanding Long-Term Access to Primary Care for Medically Vulnerable Populations in Disaster Recovery

    PubMed Central

    Brock-Martin, Amy; Karmaus, Wilfried; Svendsen, Erik R.

    2012-01-01

    Disasters create a secondary surge in casualties because of the sudden increased need for long-term health care. Surging demands for medical care after a disaster place excess strain on an overtaxed health care system operating at maximum or reduced capacity. We have applied a health services use model to identify areas of vulnerability that perpetuate health disparities for at-risk populations seeking care after a disaster. We have proposed a framework to understand the role of the medical system in modifying the health impact of the secondary surge on vulnerable populations. Baseline assessment of existing needs and the anticipation of ballooning chronic health care needs following the acute response for at-risk populations are overlooked vulnerability gaps in national surge capacity plans. PMID:23078479

  6. Application of a Systems Pharmacology-Based Placebo Population Model to Analyze Long-Term Data of Postmenopausal Osteoporosis.

    PubMed

    Berkhout, J; Stone, J A; Verhamme, K M; Stricker, B H; Sturkenboom, M C; Danhof, M; Post, T M

    2015-09-01

    Osteoporosis is a progressive bone disease characterized by decreased bone mass resulting in increased fracture risk. The objective of this investigation was to test whether a recently developed disease systems analysis model for osteoporosis could describe disease progression in a placebo-treated population from the Early Postmenopausal Intervention Cohort (EPIC) study. First, we qualified the model using a subset from the placebo arm of the EPIC study of 222 women who had similar demographic characteristics as the 149 women from the placebo arm of the original population. Second, we applied the model to all 470 women. Bone mineral density (BMD) dynamics were changed to an indirect response model to describe lumbar spine and total hip BMD in this second population. This updated disease systems analysis placebo model describes the dynamics of all biomarkers in the corresponding datasets to a very good approximation; a good description of an individual placebo response will be valuable for evaluating treatments for osteoporosis.

  7. Long-term outcomes of childhood cancer survivors in Sweden: a population-based study of education, employment, and income.

    PubMed

    Boman, Krister K; Lindblad, Frank; Hjern, Anders

    2010-03-01

    Studies of different national populations were indispensable for estimating the impact of illness-related disability on social outcomes in adult childhood cancer survivors. The effects of childhood cancer on educational attainment, employment, and income in adulthood in a Swedish setting were studied. The study population was a national cohort of 1.46 million Swedish residents, including 1716 survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed before their 16th birthday, followed up in 2002 in registries at >25 years of age. Main outcomes were educational attainment, employment, and net income. Markers of persistent disability were considered, and outcomes were analyzed with multivariate linear and logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, and socioeconomic indicators of the childhood households. Non-central nervous system (CNS) cancer survivors had similar education, employment, and income as the general population in adjusted models, whereas survivors of CNS tumors more often had no more than basic (< or =9 years) education (relative risk [RR], 1.80 [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.45-2.23]), less often attained education beyond secondary school (RR, 0.69 [95% CI, 0.58-0.81]), and less often were employed (RR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.77-0.94]). Predicted net income from work was lower in CNS tumor survivors (P <.001) than in the general population, even after the exclusion of individuals who received economic disability compensation. CNS tumor survivors had poorer social outcomes compared with the general population, whereas outcomes for survivors of other childhood cancers were similar to the general population. Established late effects highlighted the importance of improved, safer pediatric CNS tumor treatment protocols and surveillance that identified individual needs for preventive and remedial measures.

  8. Long-term survival after coronary bypass surgery. Comparison of various subsets of patients with general population.

    PubMed Central

    Greene, D G; Bunnell, I L; Arani, D T; Schimert, G; Lajos, T Z; Lee, A B; Tandon, R N; Zimdahl, W T; Bozer, J M; Kohn, R M; Visco, J P; Dean, D C; Smith, G L

    1981-01-01

    Life-table analysis consecutive cases of isolated coronary bypass surgery at the Buffalo Hospital between 1973 and 1977 showed an estimated survival of 94 per cent at five years, equal to that of an age- and sex-matched group of the US population. Subsets of these patients divided according to sex, age, number of vessels narrowed, number of segments grafted, history of myocardial infarction, ejection fraction, and presence of unstable angina have estimated survivals not statistically less in any of these subsets than that of matched cohorts of the general population. PMID:6971646

  9. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    SciTech Connect

    Stampfer, Martha R; Garbe, James C

    2015-02-24

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  10. Increasing cell culture population doublings for long-term growth of finite life span human cell cultures

    SciTech Connect

    Stampfer, Martha R.; Garbe, James C.

    2016-06-28

    Cell culture media formulations for culturing human epithelial cells are herein described. Also described are methods of increasing population doublings in a cell culture of finite life span human epithelial cells and prolonging the life span of human cell cultures. Using the cell culture media disclosed alone and in combination with addition to the cell culture of a compound associated with anti-stress activity achieves extended growth of pre-stasis cells and increased population doublings and life span in human epithelial cell cultures.

  11. Northern region landbird monitoring program: a program designed to monitor more than long-term population trends

    Treesearch

    Richard L. Hutto

    2005-01-01

    The Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program (NRLMP) has been in place for nearly a decade and is designed to allow us to track population trends of numerous landbird species, while at the same time allowing us to investigate the effects of various kinds of land use activity on the occurrence, abundance, or demographics of numerous landbird species. We conduct...

  12. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

    PubMed Central

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-01-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

  13. Earthworm populations are affected from Long-Term Crop Sequences and Bio-Covers under No-Tillage

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Earthworms are crucial for improving soil biophysical properties in cropping systems. Consequently, effects of cropping rotation and bio-covers were assessed on earthworm populations under no-tillage sites. Main effects of 6 different cropping sequences [corn (Zea mays), cotton (Gossypium hirsutum),...

  14. Alcohol Habits in Patients with Long-Term Musculoskeletal Pain: Comparison with a Matched Control Group from the General Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thelin Bronner, Kerstin Birgitta; Wennberg, Peter; Kallmen, Hakan; Schult, Marie-Louise Birgitta

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to describe alcohol habits in patients with chronic pain compared with those in a matched control group from the general Swedish population. In total, 100 consecutive patients enrolled were matched against 100 individuals in a control group on the basis of age and sex. Alcohol habits were measured using the Alcohol Use…

  15. High dispersal potential has maintained long-term population stability in the North Atlantic copepod Calanus finmarchicus

    PubMed Central

    Provan, Jim; Beatty, Gemma E.; Keating, Sianan L.; Maggs, Christine A.; Savidge, Graham

    2008-01-01

    The cool-water copepod Calanus finmarchicus is a key species in North Atlantic marine ecosystems since it represents an important food resource for the developmental stages of several fish of major economic value. Over the last 40 years, however, data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder survey have highlighted a 70 per cent reduction in C. finmarchicus biomass, coupled with a gradual northward shift in the species's distribution, which have both been linked with climate change. To determine the potential for C. finmarchicus to track changes in habitat availability and maintain stable effective population sizes, we have assessed levels of gene flow and dispersal in current populations, as well as using a coalescent approach together with palaeodistribution modelling to elucidate the historical population demography of the species over previous changes in Earth's climate. Our findings indicate high levels of dispersal and a constant effective population size over the period 359 000–566 000 BP and suggest that C. finmarchicus possesses the capacity to track changes in available habitat, a feature that may be of crucial importance to the species's ability to cope with the current period of global climate change. PMID:18812293

  16. Alcohol Habits in Patients with Long-Term Musculoskeletal Pain: Comparison with a Matched Control Group from the General Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thelin Bronner, Kerstin Birgitta; Wennberg, Peter; Kallmen, Hakan; Schult, Marie-Louise Birgitta

    2012-01-01

    This prospective study aimed to describe alcohol habits in patients with chronic pain compared with those in a matched control group from the general Swedish population. In total, 100 consecutive patients enrolled were matched against 100 individuals in a control group on the basis of age and sex. Alcohol habits were measured using the Alcohol Use…

  17. Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds.

    PubMed

    Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.

  18. Long-term forecasting of anesthesia workload in operating rooms from changes in a hospital's local population can be inaccurate.

    PubMed

    Masursky, Danielle; Dexter, Franklin; O'Leary, Colleen E; Applegeet, Carol; Nussmeier, Nancy A

    2008-04-01

    Anesthesia department planning depends on forecasting future demand for perioperative services. Little is known about long-range forecasting of anesthesia workload. We studied operating room (OR) times at Hospital A over 16 yr (1991-2006), anesthesia times at Hospital B over 26 yr (1981-2006), and cases at Hospital C over 13 yr (1994-2006). Each hospital is >100 yr old and is located in a US city with other hospitals that are >50 yr old. Hospitals A and B are the sole University hospitals in their metropolitan statistical areas (and many counties beyond). Hospital C is the sole tertiary hospital for >375 km. Each hospital's choice of a measure of anesthesia work to be analyzed was likely unimportant, as the annual hours of anesthesia correlated highly both with annual numbers of cases (r = 0.98) and with American Society of Anesthesiologist's Relative Value Guide units of work (r = 0.99). Despite a 2% decline in the local population, the hours of OR time at Hospital A increased overall (Pearson r = -0.87, P < 0.001) and for children (r = -0.84). At Hospital B, there was a strong positive correlation between population and hours of anesthesia (r = 0.97, P < 0.001), but not between annual increases in population and workload (r = -0.18). At Hospital C, despite a linear increase in population, the annual numbers of cases increased, declined with opening of two outpatient surgery facilities, and then stabilized. The predictive value of local personal income was low. In contrast, the annual increases in the hours of OR time and anesthesia could be modeled using simple time series methods. Although growth of the elderly population is a simple justification for building more ORs, managers should be cautious in arguing for strategic changes in capacity at individual hospitals based on future changes in the national age-adjusted population. Local population can provide little value in forecasting future anesthesia workloads at individual hospitals. In addition, anesthesia

  19. Increased uptake of social security benefits among long-term survivors of cancer in childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a Norwegian population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Ghaderi, S; Engeland, A; Moster, D; Ruud, E; Syse, A; Wesenberg, F; Bjørge, T

    2013-01-01

    Background: As the number of cancer survivors increases, their health and welfare have come into focus. Thus, long-term medical consequences of cancer at a young age (<25 years), obtained from social security benefit records, were studied. Methods: Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) of long-term medical consequences for 5-year cancer survivors, born during 1965–1985, were explored by linking population-based registries in Norway. Results: Among the 5-year cancer survivors (4031 individuals), 29.7% received social security benefits. The survivors had an overall 4.4 times (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 4.1–4.6) higher risk of social security benefit uptake than the cancer-free population. Survivors of malignancies of bone and connective tissues (SIR: 10.8; 95% CI: 9.1–12.9), CNS tumours (SIR: 7.7; 95% CI: 6.9–8.6) and malignancies of the haematopoietic system (SIR: 6.1; 95% CI: 5.3–7.0) had the highest risks of social security benefits uptake. The most notified causes of social security benefit uptake were diseases of the nervous system, and injury and poisoning. Conclusion: The uptake of social security benefits among 5-year cancer survivors increased substantially and it may represent a solid outcome measure for the burden of the most severe late effects, especially in countries with comparable social welfare systems. PMID:23481179

  20. Increased uptake of social security benefits among long-term survivors of cancer in childhood, adolescence and young adulthood: a Norwegian population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Ghaderi, S; Engeland, A; Moster, D; Ruud, E; Syse, A; Wesenberg, F; Bjørge, T

    2013-04-16

    As the number of cancer survivors increases, their health and welfare have come into focus. Thus, long-term medical consequences of cancer at a young age (<25 years), obtained from social security benefit records, were studied. Standardised incidence ratios (SIRs) of long-term medical consequences for 5-year cancer survivors, born during 1965-1985, were explored by linking population-based registries in Norway. Among the 5-year cancer survivors (4031 individuals), 29.7% received social security benefits. The survivors had an overall 4.4 times (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 4.1-4.6) higher risk of social security benefit uptake than the cancer-free population. Survivors of malignancies of bone and connective tissues (SIR: 10.8; 95% CI: 9.1-12.9), CNS tumours (SIR: 7.7; 95% CI: 6.9-8.6) and malignancies of the haematopoietic system (SIR: 6.1; 95% CI: 5.3-7.0) had the highest risks of social security benefits uptake. The most notified causes of social security benefit uptake were diseases of the nervous system, and injury and poisoning. The uptake of social security benefits among 5-year cancer survivors increased substantially and it may represent a solid outcome measure for the burden of the most severe late effects, especially in countries with comparable social welfare systems.

  1. Mid- and long-term effects of family constellation seminars in a general population sample: 8- and 12-month follow-up.

    PubMed

    Hunger, Christina; Weinhold, Jan; Bornhäuser, Annette; Link, Leoni; Schweitzer, Jochen

    2015-06-01

    In a previous randomized controlled trial (RCT), short-term efficacy of family constellation seminars (FCSs) in a general population sample was demonstrated. In this article, we examined mid- and long-term stability of these effects. Participants were 104 adults (M = 47 years; SD = 9; 84% female) who were part of the intervention group in the original RCT (3-day FCS; 64 active participants and 40 observing participants). FCSs were carried out according to manuals. It was predicted that FCSs would improve psychological functioning (Outcome Questionnaire OQ-45.2) at 8- and 12-month follow-up. Additionally, we assessed the effects of FCSs on psychological distress, motivational incongruence, individuals' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. Participants yielded significant improvement in psychological functioning (d = 0.41 at 8-month follow-up, p = .000; d = 0.40 at 12-month follow-up, p = .000). Results were confirmed for psychological distress, motivational incongruence, the participants' experience in their personal social systems, and overall goal attainment. No adverse events were reported. This study provides first evidence for the mid- and long-term efficacy of FCSs in a nonclinical population. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  2. Advantages of the division of labour for the long-term population dynamics of cyanobacteria at different latitudes

    PubMed Central

    Rossetti, Valentina; Bagheri, Homayoun C.

    2012-01-01

    A fundamental advancement in the evolution of complexity is division of labour. This implies a partition of tasks among cells, either spatially through cellular differentiation, or temporally via a circadian rhythm. Cyanobacteria often employ either spatial differentiation or a circadian rhythm in order to separate the chemically incompatible processes of nitrogen fixation and photosynthesis. We present a theoretical framework to assess the advantages in terms of biomass production and population size for three species types: terminally differentiated (heterocystous), circadian, and an idealized species in which nitrogen and carbon fixation occur without biochemical constraints. On the basis of real solar irradiance data at different latitudes, we simulate population dynamics in isolation and in competition for light over a period of 40 years. Our results show that in isolation and regardless of latitude, the biomass of heterocystous cyanobacteria that optimally invest resources is comparable to that of the idealized unconstrained species. Hence, spatial division of labour overcomes biochemical constraints and enhances biomass production. In the circadian case, the strict temporal task separation modelled here hinders high biomass production in comparison with the heterocystous species. However, circadian species are found to be successful in competition for light whenever their resource investment prevents a waste of fixed nitrogen more effectively than do heterocystous species. In addition, we show the existence of a trade-off between population size and biomass accumulation, whereby each species can optimally invest resources to be proficient in biomass production or population growth, but not necessarily both. Finally, the model produces chaotic dynamics for population size, which is relevant to the study of cyanobacterial blooms. PMID:22696525

  3. A spatial model to estimate habitat fragmentation and its consequences on long-term persistence of animal populations.

    PubMed

    Aurambout, J P; Endress, A G; Deal, B M

    2005-10-01

    The increasing use of the landscape by humans has led to important diminutions of natural surfaces. The remaining patches of wild habitat are small and isolated from each other among a matrix of inhospitable land-uses. This habitat fragmentation, by disabling population movements and stopping their spread to new habitats, is a major threat to the survival of numerous plant and animal species. We developed a general model, adaptable for specific species, capable of identifying suitable habitat patches within fragmented landscapes and investigating the capacity of populations to move between these patches. This approach combines GIS analysis of a landscape, with spatial dynamic modeling. Suitable habitat is identified using a threshold area to perimeter ratio. Potential movement pathways of species between habitat patches are modeled using a cellular automaton. Habitat connectivity is estimated by overlaying habitat patches with movement pathways. The maximum potential population is calculated within and between connected habitat patches and potential risk of inbreeding within meta-populations is considered. The model was tested on a sample map and applied to scenario maps of predicted land-use change in the Peoria Tri-county region (IL). It (1) showed area of natural area alone was insufficient to estimate the consequences on animal populations; (2) underscored the necessity to use approaches investigating the effect of land-use change spatially through the landscape and the importance of considering species-specific life history characteristics; and (3) highlighted the model's potential utility as an indicator of species likelihood to be affected negatively by land-use scenarios and therefore requiring detailed investigation.

  4. Evaluation of the Population Pharmacokinetic Properties of Lidocaine and its Metabolites After Long-Term Multiple Applications of a Lidocaine Plaster in Post-Herpetic Neuralgia Patients.

    PubMed

    Bursi, Roberta; Piana, Chiara; Grevel, Joachim; Huntjens, Dymphy; Boesl, Irmgard

    2017-01-12

    Lidocaine 5% medicated plaster is the first lidocaine containing product for chronic use. As no previous investigations have been conducted to evaluate the population pharmacokinetics of long-term exposure to lidocaine 5% medicated plasters, further insights into the evaluation of the pharmacokinetic properties of lidocaine and its metabolites were needed for the assessment of its safety. The population pharmacokinetic properties of lidocaine and its metabolites were evaluated after multiple applications of lidocaine 5% medicated plasters based on data collected for up to 14.5 months from two phase III clinical trials (up to 2.5 months in the first trial, and up to 12 months in a follow-up trial) in post-herpetic neuralgia patients. Modeling was performed using nonlinear mixed effects as implemented in NONMEM(®) (nonlinear mixed-effect modeling) v.5. A stepwise forward inclusion and backward elimination procedure were used for covariate model building. The model provides reliable estimates of the pharmacokinetic behavior of lidocaine after medicated plaster application. It was validated using simulations and showed adequate predictive properties. Apparent Clearance was estimated to be 48 L/h after application of two or fewer plasters, whereas its value increased to 67 L/h after application of three plasters. Model-based simulations predicted no accumulation of lidocaine or any of its metabolites after long-term exposure of three simultaneous plasters up to 1 year. The variability explained by adding covariates into the model for the long-term exposures of lidocaine following one plaster or three simultaneous plaster applications was found to be very small with respect to the overall between-subject variability. In conclusion, exposure to lidocaine after the application of the lidocaine medicated plaster was found to be primarily affected by the number of plasters simultaneously applied, i.e., it increased with the number of applied patches, but less than

  5. [The demographic aging of the Austrian population: on the long-term changes in the age structure in Austria].

    PubMed

    Kytir, J

    1995-01-01

    "The Austrian population is presently in the middle of its age structure transition which started with World War I and will continue until the 40s of the next century. Within this time period the number of people aged 60 years or over will increase from about half a million to 2.8 million (1995: 1.6 million) and the share of the elderly will mount from about 9 percent to more than 35 percent (1995: 20 percent). The present article points out the demographic causes for population aging asking whether high fertility and/or high numbers of migrants can stop the aging process. Different measurements of demographic aging in Austria (share of various age groups, mean age and median age, dependency ratios, several aging indices) are calculated for the time period 1869 to 2050. Special attention is paid to regional differences within Austria and to changes of the sex ratio at older ages over time." (EXCERPT)

  6. In a long-term experimental demography study, excluding ungulates reversed invader's explosive population growth rate and restored natives.

    PubMed

    Kalisz, Susan; Spigler, Rachel B; Horvitz, Carol C

    2014-03-25

    A major goal in ecology is to understand mechanisms that increase invasion success of exotic species. A recent hypothesis implicates altered species interactions resulting from ungulate herbivore overabundance as a key cause of exotic plant domination. To test this hypothesis, we maintained an experimental demography deer exclusion study for 6 y in a forest where the native ungulate Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer) is overabundant and Alliaria petiolata (garlic mustard) is aggressively invading. Because population growth is multiplicative across time, we introduce metrics that correctly integrate experimental effects across treatment years, the cumulative population growth rate, λc, and its geometric mean, λper-year, the time-averaged annual population growth rate. We determined λc and λper-year of the invader and of a common native, Trillium erectum. Our results conclusively demonstrate that deer are required for the success of Alliaria; its projected population trajectory shifted from explosive growth in the presence of deer (λper-year = 1.33) to decline toward extinction where deer are excluded (λper-year = 0.88). In contrast, Trillium's λper-year was suppressed in the presence of deer relative to deer exclusion (λper-year = 1.04 vs. 1.20, respectively). Retrospective sensitivity analyses revealed that the largest negative effect of deer exclusion on Alliaria came from rosette transitions, whereas the largest positive effect on Trillium came from reproductive transitions. Deer exclusion lowered Alliaria density while increasing Trillium density. Our results provide definitive experimental support that interactions with overabundant ungulates enhance demographic success of invaders and depress natives' success, with broad implications for biodiversity and ecosystem function worldwide.

  7. Long-term assessment of whale shark population demography and connectivity using photo-identification in the Western Atlantic Ocean

    PubMed Central

    Hoffmayer, Eric R.; Holmberg, Jason; Graham, Rachel T.; Driggers, William B.; de la Parra-Venegas, Rafael; Galván-Pastoriza, Beatriz E.; Fox, Steve; Pierce, Simon J.; Dove, Alistair D. M.

    2017-01-01

    The predictable occurrence of whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, has been well documented in several areas. However, information relating to their migratory patterns, residency times and connectivity across broad spatial scales is limited. In the present study photo-identification data is used to describe whale shark population structure and connectivity among known aggregation sites within the Western Central Atlantic Ocean (WCA). From 1999 to 2015, 1,361 individuals were identified from four distinct areas: the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (n = 1,115); Honduras (n = 146); northern Gulf of Mexico, United States (n = 112), and Belize (n = 49). Seasonal patterns in whale shark occurrence were evident with encounters occurring in the western Caribbean Sea earlier in the year than in the GOM. There was also a significant sex bias with 2.6 times more males present than females. Seventy sharks were observed in more than one area and the highest degree of connectivity occurred among three aggregation sites along the Mesoamerican Reef. Despite this, the majority of resightings occurred in the area where the respective sharks were first identified. This was true for the WCA as a whole, with the exception of Belize. Site fidelity was highest in Mexico. Maximum likelihood modelling resulted in a population estimate of 2,167 (95% c.i. 1585.21–2909.86) sharks throughout the entire region. This study is the first attempt to provide a broad, regional population estimate using photo-identification data from multiple whale shark aggregations. Our aim is to provide population metrics, along with the description of region-scale connectivity, that will help guide conservation action in the WCA. At a global level, rapidly growing photographic databases are allowing for researchers to look beyond the description of single aggregation sites and into the ocean-scale ecology of this pelagic species. PMID:28817569

  8. Long-term assessment of whale shark population demography and connectivity using photo-identification in the Western Atlantic Ocean.

    PubMed

    McKinney, Jennifer A; Hoffmayer, Eric R; Holmberg, Jason; Graham, Rachel T; Driggers, William B; de la Parra-Venegas, Rafael; Galván-Pastoriza, Beatriz E; Fox, Steve; Pierce, Simon J; Dove, Alistair D M

    2017-01-01

    The predictable occurrence of whale sharks, Rhincodon typus, has been well documented in several areas. However, information relating to their migratory patterns, residency times and connectivity across broad spatial scales is limited. In the present study photo-identification data is used to describe whale shark population structure and connectivity among known aggregation sites within the Western Central Atlantic Ocean (WCA). From 1999 to 2015, 1,361 individuals were identified from four distinct areas: the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico (n = 1,115); Honduras (n = 146); northern Gulf of Mexico, United States (n = 112), and Belize (n = 49). Seasonal patterns in whale shark occurrence were evident with encounters occurring in the western Caribbean Sea earlier in the year than in the GOM. There was also a significant sex bias with 2.6 times more males present than females. Seventy sharks were observed in more than one area and the highest degree of connectivity occurred among three aggregation sites along the Mesoamerican Reef. Despite this, the majority of resightings occurred in the area where the respective sharks were first identified. This was true for the WCA as a whole, with the exception of Belize. Site fidelity was highest in Mexico. Maximum likelihood modelling resulted in a population estimate of 2,167 (95% c.i. 1585.21-2909.86) sharks throughout the entire region. This study is the first attempt to provide a broad, regional population estimate using photo-identification data from multiple whale shark aggregations. Our aim is to provide population metrics, along with the description of region-scale connectivity, that will help guide conservation action in the WCA. At a global level, rapidly growing photographic databases are allowing for researchers to look beyond the description of single aggregation sites and into the ocean-scale ecology of this pelagic species.

  9. Age-specific administration of chemotherapy and long-term quality of life in stage II and III colorectal cancer patients: a population-based prospective cohort.

    PubMed

    Jansen, Lina; Hoffmeister, Michael; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Koch, Moritz; Brenner, Hermann; Arndt, Volker

    2011-01-01

    To investigate the age-specific pattern of administration of chemotherapy and its association with long-term survival and quality of life (QoL) in stage II and III colorectal cancer patients. Chemotherapy allocation according to disease and patient characteristics was investigated in a population-based cohort of 562 stage II and III colorectal cancer patients. Five years after diagnosis, survival was determined and QoL was assessed using the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire Core 30 Items and a tumor specific module. The association among chemotherapy, survival, and QoL was examined while controlling for potential confounders. Chemotherapy was administered in 71% of patients aged <60 years and in only 20% of patients aged ≥80 years. A significant association between chemotherapy and longer survival time was found for stage III cancer only. Chemotherapy was associated with higher symptom levels for trouble with taste, anxiety, and hair loss. In age-specific analyses, younger survivors (<70 years at time of follow-up) with a history of chemotherapy reported significantly lower physical, role, and cognitive functioning and higher pain, appetite loss, hair loss, and trouble with taste symptom levels. In contrast, for older survivors (≥70 years), only two (hair loss and dry mouth) out of 38 QoL scores were significantly associated with chemotherapy. Chemotherapy is associated with lower long-term QoL, especially in younger survivors. In cases of uncertain survival benefits of chemotherapy, consideration of its long-term effects on QoL should be incorporated into final decisions on treatment.

  10. Adrenocortical carcinoma in children: first population-based clinicopathological study with long-term follow-up.

    PubMed

    Kerkhofs, T M A; Ettaieb, M H T; Verhoeven, R H A; Kaspers, G J L; Tissing, W J E; Loeffen, J; Van den Heuvel-Eibrink, M M; De Krijger, R R; Haak, H R

    2014-12-01

    Adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) is rare in both adult and pediatric populations. Literature suggests significant differences between children and adults in presentation, histological properties and outcome. The aim of this first nationwide study on pediatric ACC was to describe the incidence, presentation, pathological characteristics, treatment and survival in The Netherlands. All ACC patients aged <20 years at diagnosis and registered in the population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry between 1993 and 2010 were included. Clinical data were extracted from medical records. Archival histological slides were collected via the Dutch Pathology Registry (PALGA). We compared our findings to all clinical studies on pediatric ACC that were found on PubMed. Based on the results, 12 patients were identified: 8 females and 4 males. The median age was 4.1 years (range 1.1-18.6). The population-based age-standardized incidence rate for patients <20 years was 0.18 per million person-years. Autonomous hormonal secretion was present in 10 patients. Seven patients were aged ≤4 years at diagnosis, 5 presented with localized disease and 2 with locally advanced disease. Five patients were aged ≥5 years, 3 presented with distant metastases and 1 with locally advanced disease. For all patients, histological examination displayed malignant characteristics. All patients aged ≤4 years at diagnosis survived; the median follow-up was 97 months (57-179 months). All patients aged ≥5 years died; the median survival was 6 months (0-38 months). Pediatric ACC is extremely rare in the Western world. The clinical outcome was remarkably better in patients aged ≤4 years. This is in accordance with less advanced stage of disease at presentation, yet contrasts with the presence of adverse histological characteristics. Clinical management in advanced disease is adapted from adult practice in the absence of evidence regarding pediatric ACC.

  11. Body mass index and long-term risk of death from esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a Chinese population.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shao-Ming; Fan, Jin-Hu; Jia, Meng-Meng; Yang, Zhao; Zhang, Yu-Qing; Qiao, You-Lin; Taylor, Philip R

    2016-07-01

    Studies based on Western populations have found that body mass index (BMI) is positively related to the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma but inversely associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Little reliable evidence exists of an association between BMI and ESCCin China, where ESCC incidence is high but BMI is low. We evaluated the BMI-ESCC association in a population-based prospective study of 29 446 Chinese aged 40-69 with 27 years of follow-up. China-specific BMI cut-offs (underweight < 18.5, healthy ≥ 18.5 to <24, overweight ≥ 24 to <28, and obese ≥ 28) and quartile categories were used to define BMI subgroups. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) for death from ESCC by BMI subgroups were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. During a median follow-up duration of 21.2 years (555 439 person-years), 2436 ESCC deaths were identified. BMI was protective for death from ESCC with an HR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99) for each unit increase in BMI. Relative to healthy weight, HRs for BMI were 1.21 (95% CI 1.02-1.43) for the underweight group and 0.87 (95% CI 0.78-0.98) for the overweight. Categorical quartile analyses found people with BMIs in the Q3 and Q4 groups had 16% and 13% reductions in the risk of ESCC, respectively. Gender-specific analyses found that clear effects were evident in women only. Higher BMI was associated with a reduced risk of ESCC in aChinese population.

  12. Using individual-condition measures to predict the long-term importance of habitat extent for population persistence.

    PubMed

    Cosgrove, Anita J; McWhorter, Todd J; Maron, Martine

    2017-10-01

    Habitat loss and fragmentation are causing widespread population declines, but identifying how and when to intervene remains challenging. Predicting where extirpations are likely to occur and implementing management actions before losses result may be more cost-effective than trying to reestablish lost populations. Early indicators of pressure on populations could be used to make such predictions. Previous work conducted in 2009 and 2010 identified that the presence of Eastern Yellow Robins (Eopsaltria australis) in 42 sites in a fragmented region of eastern Australia was unrelated to woodland extent within 500 m of a site, but the robins' heterophil:lymphocyte (H:L) ratios (an indicator of chronic stress) were elevated at sites with low levels of surrounding woodland. We resurveyed these 42 sites in 2013 and 2014 for robin presence to determine whether the H:L ratios obtained in 2009 and 2010 predicted the locations of extirpations and whether the previous pattern in H:L ratios was an early sign that woodland extent would become an important predictor of occupancy. We also surveyed for robins at 43 additional sites to determine whether current occupancy could be better predicted by landscape context at a larger scale, relevant to dispersal movements. At the original 42 sites, H:L ratios and extirpations were not related, although only 4 extirpations were observed. Woodland extent within 500 m had become a strong predictor of occupancy. Taken together, these results provide mixed evidence as to whether patterns of individual condition can reveal habitat relationships that become evident as local shifts in occupancy occur but that are not revealed by a single snapshot of species distribution. Across all 85 sites, woodland extent at scales relevant to dispersal (5 km) was not related to occurrence. We recommend that conservation actions focus on regenerating areas of habitat large enough to support robin territories rather than increasing connectivity within the

  13. Some results of long-term investigation population exposed as a result of release of radioactive wastes into the Techa River in Southern Urals

    SciTech Connect

    Degteva, M.O.; Kozheurov, V.P.; Vorobiova, M.I.

    1992-06-01

    This paper describes results of a long-term investigation of a population exposed to radioactive waste release in 1949-1956 into the Techa River in the Southern Urals. Systematic measurements of radionuclide concentration in the river waters, sediments, and floodplain soils and measurements of exposure gamma dose rates as well as studies of the radionuclide composition in the contaminated areas began in the summer of 1951. As a result of the contamination, 124,000 residents were exposed to radiation and 28,100 received significant doses in terms of health effect potential. Covered results include the following: estimation of external radiation doses; content of strontium-90 in humans and estimation of radionuclide ingestion rates; age-dependent model of strontium metabolism in the human body; evaluation of doses of internal irradiation; distribution of exposed population according to accumulated doses. 11 refs; 15 figs.

  14. Long-term temporal trends and estimated transmission rates for Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed high-density badger (Meles meles) population.

    PubMed

    Delahay, R J; Walker, N; Smith, G C; Smith, G S; Wilkinson, D; Clifton-Hadley, R S; Cheeseman, C L; Tomlinson, A J; Chambers, M A

    2013-07-01

    We describe epidemiological trends in Mycobacterium bovis infection in an undisturbed wild badger (Meles meles) population. Data were derived from the capture, clinical sampling and serological testing of 1803 badgers over 9945 capture events spanning 24 years. Incidence and prevalence increased over time, exhibiting no simple relationship with host density. Potential explanations are presented for a marked increase in the frequency of positive serological test results. Transmission rates (R0) estimated from empirical data were consistent with modelled estimates and robust to changes in test sensitivity and the spatial extent of the population at risk. The risk of a positive culture or serological test result increased with badger age, and varied seasonally. Evidence consistent with progressive disease was found in cubs. This study demonstrates the value of long-term data and the repeated application of imperfect diagnostic tests as indices of infection to reveal epidemiological trends in M. bovis infection in badgers.

  15. Long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (Croatia) related to eutrophication patterns in the northern Adriatic Sea.

    PubMed

    Iveša, Ljiljana; Djakovac, Tamara; Devescovi, Massimo

    2016-05-15

    An exploration of historical data suggested that eutrophication patterns might drive long-term fluctuations in Cystoseira populations along the west Istrian Coast (northern Adriatic Sea, Croatia). The regimes of northern Italian rivers, which flow approximately 100km west of the study area, mainly modulate the eutrophication levels of the northern Adriatic Sea. A regression of Cystoseira populations from the 1970s through the 1990s corresponded to increased levels of eutrophication in the study area. During the late 1990s, the density of sea urchins, which are efficacious macroalgal predators, decreased, likely due to an intense formation of pelagic mucilage aggregates that resulted in mass mortality episodes of macrozoobenthic species. During the 2000-2013 period, an oligotrophication of the northern Adriatic formed the basis for the recovery of Cystoseira taxa, whose abundances from 2009 to 2013 were similar to those characterising the most flourishing Mediterranean Cystoseira assemblages.

  16. Long-term assessment of wild boar harvesting and cattle removal for bovine tuberculosis control in free ranging populations.

    PubMed

    Mentaberre, Gregorio; Romero, Beatriz; de Juan, Lucía; Navarro-González, Nora; Velarde, Roser; Mateos, Ana; Marco, Ignasi; Olivé-Boix, Xavier; Domínguez, Lucas; Lavín, Santiago; Serrano, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Wild boar is a recognized reservoir of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in the Mediterranean ecosystems, but information is scarce outside of hotspots in southern Spain. We describe the first high-prevalence focus of TB in a non-managed wild boar population in northern Spain and the result of eight years of TB management. Measures implemented for disease control included the control of the local wild boar population through culling and stamping out of a sympatric infected cattle herd. Post-mortem inspection for detection of tuberculosis-like lesions as well as cultures from selected head and cervical lymph nodes was done in 745 wild boar, 355 Iberian ibexes and five cattle between 2004 and 2012. The seasonal prevalence of TB reached 70% amongst adult wild boar and ten different spoligotypes and 13 MIRU-VNTR profiles were detected, although more than half of the isolates were included in the same clonal complex. Only 11% of infected boars had generalized lesions. None of the ibexes were affected, supporting their irrelevance in the epidemiology of TB. An infected cattle herd grazed the zone where 168 of the 197 infected boars were harvested. Cattle removal and wild boar culling together contributed to a decrease in TB prevalence. The need for holistic, sustained over time, intensive and adapted TB control strategies taking into account the multi-host nature of the disease is highlighted. The potential risk for tuberculosis emergence in wildlife scenarios where the risk is assumed to be low should be addressed.

  17. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance.

    PubMed

    Chapman, Colin A; Schoof, Valérie A M; Bonnell, Tyler R; Gogarten, Jan F; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-05-26

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  18. Decline and recovery of a large carnivore: environmental change and long-term trends in an endangered brown bear population.

    PubMed

    Martínez Cano, Isabel; Taboada, Fernando González; Naves, Javier; Fernández-Gil, Alberto; Wiegand, Thorsten

    2016-11-30

    Understanding what factors drive fluctuations in the abundance of endangered species is a difficult ecological problem but a major requirement to attain effective management and conservation success. The ecological traits of large mammals make this task even more complicated, calling for integrative approaches. We develop a framework combining individual-based modelling and statistical inference to assess alternative hypotheses on brown bear dynamics in the Cantabrian range (Iberian Peninsula). Models including the effect of environmental factors on mortality rates were able to reproduce three decades of variation in the number of females with cubs of the year (Fcoy), including the decline that put the population close to extinction in the mid-nineties, and the following increase in brown bear numbers. This external effect prevailed over density-dependent mechanisms (sexually selected infanticide and female reproductive suppression), with a major impact of climate driven changes in resource availability and a secondary role of changes in human pressure. Predicted changes in population structure revealed a nonlinear relationship between total abundance and the number of Fcoy, highlighting the risk of simple projections based on indirect abundance indices. This study demonstrates the advantages of integrative, mechanistic approaches and provides a widely applicable framework to improve our understanding of wildlife dynamics.

  19. Competing pressures on populations: long-term dynamics of food availability, food quality, disease, stress and animal abundance

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Colin A.; Schoof, Valérie A. M.; Bonnell, Tyler R.; Gogarten, Jan F.; Calmé, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Despite strong links between sociality and fitness that ultimately affect the size of animal populations, the particular social and ecological factors that lead to endangerment are not well understood. Here, we synthesize approximately 25 years of data and present new analyses that highlight dynamics in forest composition, food availability, the nutritional quality of food, disease, physiological stress and population size of endangered folivorous red colobus monkeys (Procolobus rufomitratus). There is a decline in the quality of leaves 15 and 30 years following two previous studies in an undisturbed area of forest. The consumption of a low-quality diet in one month was associated with higher glucocorticoid levels in the subsequent month and stress levels in groups living in degraded forest fragments where diet was poor was more than twice those in forest groups. In contrast, forest composition has changed and when red colobus food availability was weighted by the protein-to-fibre ratio, which we have shown positively predicts folivore biomass, there was an increase in the availability of high-quality trees. Despite these changing social and ecological factors, the abundance of red colobus has remained stable, possibly through a combination of increasing group size and behavioural flexibility. PMID:25870398

  20. Population regulation in a changing environment: Long-term changes in growth, condition and survival of sprat, Sprattus sprattus L. in the Bristol Channel, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Henderson, Peter A.; Henderson, Rowena C.

    2017-02-01

    Sprat, Sprattus sprattus, is the dominant pelagic species in British inshore and estuarine waters. Within the Bristol Channel the population is almost totally composed of fish < 3 years old with the adults overwintering in Bridgwater Bay. Sprat follow regular seasonal migrations and occasionally form huge aggregations which together generate considerable between sample variability. Using a 36-year monthly time series collected in the Bristol Channel since 1980, together with two periods of intensive daily and weekly sampling, sprat growth is shown to have declined almost linearly over the last 36 years coincident with increasing late summer-autumn seawater temperatures. Longevity has also declined, with age 3 + sprat > 140 mm standard length lost to the population by 1999. Further, adult condition, measured as the average weight of a 103 mm standard length adult, declined rapidly from 13.7 g in 2007 to 9 g in 2011. Despite these changes, which would have reduced age-specific fecundity, a sign-rank test showed abundance of adult sprat has shown no long-term trend and Bulmer's test indicates density-dependent regulation is operating. While sprat recruitment is shown to be responding to the sunspot cycle, the North Atlantic Oscillation and sea water temperature, the impact of these variables on adult population density is damped because of density-dependent regulation. The result is that sprat respond to environmental change with large changes in their growth and condition, but the adult abundance is constrained and shows no long-term trend. Recruitment was modelled by combining a Ricker curve with terms for the response of sprat to solar activity, the North Atlantic Oscillation and spring temperature. It is shown that the stock-recruitment relationship does not form a simple curve, but is bounded within a region in which the upper and lower constraints are defined by environmental conditions. Within this bounded region the population trajectory under differing

  1. The Phenology of Ticks and the Effects of Long-Term Prescribed Burning on Tick Population Dynamics in Southwestern Georgia and Northwestern Florida

    PubMed Central

    Gleim, Elizabeth R.; Conner, L. Mike; Berghaus, Roy D.; Levin, Michael L.; Zemtsova, Galina E.; Yabsley, Michael J.

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  2. The phenology of ticks and the effects of long-term prescribed burning on tick population dynamics in southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida.

    PubMed

    Gleim, Elizabeth R; Conner, L Mike; Berghaus, Roy D; Levin, Michael L; Zemtsova, Galina E; Yabsley, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    Some tick populations have increased dramatically in the past several decades leading to an increase in the incidence and emergence of tick-borne diseases. Management strategies that can effectively reduce tick populations while better understanding regional tick phenology is needed. One promising management strategy is prescribed burning. However, the efficacy of prescribed burning as a mechanism for tick control is unclear because past studies have provided conflicting data, likely due to a failure of some studies to simulate operational management scenarios and/or account for other predictors of tick abundance. Therefore, our study was conducted to increase knowledge of tick population dynamics relative to long-term prescribed fire management. Furthermore, we targeted a region, southwestern Georgia and northwestern Florida (USA), in which little is known regarding tick dynamics so that basic phenology could be determined. Twenty-one plots with varying burn regimes (burned surrounded by burned [BB], burned surrounded by unburned [BUB], unburned surrounded by burned [UBB], and unburned surrounded by unburned [UBUB]) were sampled monthly for two years while simultaneously collecting data on variables that can affect tick abundance (e.g., host abundance, vegetation structure, and micro- and macro-climatic conditions). In total, 47,185 ticks were collected, of which, 99% were Amblyomma americanum, 0.7% were Ixodes scapularis, and fewer numbers of Amblyomma maculatum, Ixodes brunneus, and Dermacentor variabilis. Monthly seasonality trends were similar between 2010 and 2011. Long-term prescribed burning consistently and significantly reduced tick counts (overall and specifically for A. americanum and I. scapularis) regardless of the burn regimes and variables evaluated. Tick species composition varied according to burn regime with A. americanum dominating at UBUB, A. maculatum at BB, I. scapularis at UBB, and a more even composition at BUB. These data indicate that

  3. Long-term development of the radionuclide exposure of murine rodent populations in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Ryabokon, N I; Smolich, I I; Kudryashov, V P; Goncharova, R I

    2005-12-01

    As a determinant of the associated health risks, the behavior of radionuclides in natural ecosystems needs to be better understood. Therefore, the activity concentration of various long-lived radionuclides released due to the Chernobyl accident, and the corresponding contributions to the whole-body dose rate, was studied as a function of time in mammalian indicator species inhabiting the natural forest ecosystems of Belarus, the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus) and the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollus). The activity concentrations of 137Cs, 134Cs, 90Sr, 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am in soil and in animals were measured at five monitoring sites with different ground deposition of radionuclides at different distances from the destroyed reactor. The observed temporal pattern of the radionuclide activity concentration in the studied animal populations reflects the changes in biological availability of these isotopes for biota, mostly due to fuel particle destruction and appearance of dissolved and exchangeable forms of radionuclides. The time course of 134+137Cs activity concentrations in animal populations appeared as a sequence of increase, peak and decrease. Maximal levels of radiocesium occurred 1-2 years after deposition, followed by an exponential decrease. Concentrations of incorporated 90Sr increased up to the tenth year after deposition. The activity concentrations of transuranic elements (238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am) were much lower than those of the other radionuclides, in the studied animals. A considerable activity of 241Am in animals from areas with high levels of contamination was firstly detected 5 years after deposition, it increased up to the tenth year and is expected to increase further in the future. Maximal values of the whole-body absorbed dose rates occurred during the year of deposition, followed by a decrease in the subsequent period. Generally, this decrease was monotonic, mainly determined by the decrease of the

  4. A Population-Based Study of Long-term Outcomes of Cryptogenic Focal Epilepsy in Childhood: Cryptogenic Epilepsy is NOT Probably Symptomatic Epilepsy

    PubMed Central

    Wirrell, Elaine C; Grossardt, Brandon R; So, Elson L; Nickels, Katherine C

    2011-01-01

    Purpose To compare long-term outcome in a population-based group of children with cryptogenic vs symptomatic focal epilepsy diagnosed from 1980–2004 and to define the course of epilepsy in the cryptogenic group. Methods We identified all children residing in Olmsted County, MN, 1 month through 17 years with newly diagnosed, non-idiopathic focal epilepsy from 1980–2004. Children with idiopathic partial epilepsy syndromes were excluded. Medical records were reviewed to determine etiology, results of imaging and EEG studies, treatments used, and long-term outcome. Children were defined as having symptomatic epilepsy if they had a known genetic or structural/metabolic etiology, and as cryptogenic if they did not. Key Findings Of 359 children with newly-diagnosed epilepsy, 215 (60%) had non-idiopathic focal epilepsy. Of these, 206 (96%) were followed for more than 12 months. Ninety five children (46%) were classified as symptomatic. Median follow-up from diagnosis was similar in both groups, being 157 months (25%ile, 75%ile 89, 233) in the cryptogenic group vs 134 months (25%ile, 75%ile 78, 220) in the symptomatic group (p=0.26). Of 111 cryptogenic cases, 66% had normal cognition. Long-term outcome was significantly better in those with cryptogenic vs symptomatic etiology (intractable epilepsy at last follow-up, 7% vs 40%, p<0.001; seizure-freedom at last follow-up, 81% vs 55%, p<0.001). Of those who achieved seizure-freedom at final follow-up, 68% of the cryptogenic group versus only 46% of the symptomatic group were off antiepileptic medications (p=0.01). One third of the cryptogenic group had a remarkably benign disorder, with no seizures seen after initiation of medication, or in those who were untreated, after the second afebrile seizure. A further 5% had seizures within the first year but remained seizure-free thereafter. With the exception of perinatal complications, which predicted against seizure remission, no other factors were found to significantly

  5. Response of microbial community of tundra soil to global warming: Simulation of seasonal and long-term population dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Panikov, N.S.

    1994-11-01

    A mathematical model has been constructed and verified to simulate dynamics of a microbial community in typical tundra. The model contains the following state variables: the population densities of three competing microbial species (exemplified by Arthrobacter, Pseudomonas, and Bacillus), indexes of their physiological state, concentration of available organic substrate, plant litter reserves, the amount of microbiovorous protozoans, and temperature. The mathematical model simulates adequately the qualitative features of microbial seasonal dynamics observed in tundra. The global warming and associated increase in primary productivity, as predicted by simulation, will relieve the pressure of L-selection and thus result in stabilization of the tundra microbial community. The model also predicts that aerobic decomposition of dead organic matter in solid will be accelerated compared to its formation. 24 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.

  6. Incidence, recurrence, and long-term survival of ischemic stroke subtypes: A population-based study in the Middle East.

    PubMed

    Saber, Hamidreza; Thrift, Amanda G; Kapral, Moira K; Shoamanesh, Ashkan; Amiri, Amin; Farzadfard, Mohammad T; Behrouz, Réza; Azarpazhooh, Mahmoud Reza

    2017-10-01

    Background Incidence, risk factors, case fatality and survival rates of ischemic stroke subtypes are unknown in the Middle East due to the lack of community-based incidence stroke studies in this region. Aim To characterize ischemic stroke subtypes in a Middle Eastern population. Methods The Mashad Stroke Incidence Study is a community-based study that prospectively ascertained all cases of stroke among the 450,229 inhabitants of Mashhad, Iran between 2006 and 2007. We identified 512 cases of first-ever ischemic stroke [264 men (mean age 65.5 ± 14.4) and 248 women (mean age 64.14 ± 14.5)]. Subtypes of ischemic stroke were classified according to the TOAST criteria. Incidence rates were age standardized to the WHO and European populations. Results The proportion of stroke subtypes was distributed as follows: 14.1% large artery disease, 15% cardioembolic, 22.5% small artery disease, 43.9% undetermined and 4.5% other. The greatest overall incidence rates were attributed to undetermined infarction (49.97/100,000) followed by small artery disease (25.54/100,000). Prevalence of hypertension, diabetes and atrial fibrillation differed among ischemic stroke subtypes. Overall, there were 268 (52.34%) deaths and 73 (14.25%) recurrent strokes at five years after incident ischemic stroke, with the greatest risk of recurrence seen in the large artery disease (35.6%) and cardioembolic (35.5%) subgroups. Survival was similar in men and women for each stroke subtype. Conclusions We observed markedly greater incidence rates of ischemic stroke subtypes than in other countries within the Mashad Stroke Incidence Study after age standardization. Our findings should be considered when planning prevention and stroke care services in this region.

  7. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates

    PubMed Central

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-terWengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-01-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000–12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000–67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700–44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70–110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity. PMID:21214655

  8. [Recovery from disability in an older population. Results of long-term follow-up in Upper-Normandy (France)].

    PubMed

    Colvez, A; Castex, A; Carriere, I

    2003-12-01

    The recovery of people initially disabled was addressed using the National Institute of Health and Medical Research Upper-Normandy survey, conducted on a representative sample of the older population from 1978 to 1999. The survey was based on 1082 older people aged 65 and over. A follow-up was organized to register mortality and disability at point 3, 6, 10 and 20 years. Among the persons initially disabled were taken into account those who were able to go outside their home without help during the 20-year follow-up. Each case of recovery was validated. Among the 1046 subjects for whom data could be analyzed, 218 presented mobility disability necessitating help to go outside their home. Recovery from disability was observed in 23 subjects (10.5%; CI: 6.5-14.5). Among the 195 subjects (89.5%) without any recovery, 107 (49%) had died before 4 years, 44 (20%) had died between 4 and 6 years, and 44 (20%) survived with disability more than 6 years. The rate of recovery was 18.6% before age 80, and 4.1% for people aged 80 and over. It was 1.3% for home-confined or bed- or chair-confined people and 15.4% for the others. Before age 80 the recovery rate was significantly higher in women. No recovery was observed for people with mental deterioration. Cerebrovascular diseases were significantly associated with a low rate of recovery (5%). Recovery from disability should be taken into account for the health prospects of the elderly population. It concerns about one person out of five before the age of 80. Increased rate of recovery after the age of 80 should be one of the objectives for the health system in the future.

  9. Phylogeography, genetic structure and population divergence time of cheetahs in Africa and Asia: evidence for long-term geographic isolates.

    PubMed

    Charruau, P; Fernandes, C; Orozco-Terwengel, P; Peters, J; Hunter, L; Ziaie, H; Jourabchian, A; Jowkar, H; Schaller, G; Ostrowski, S; Vercammen, P; Grange, T; Schlötterer, C; Kotze, A; Geigl, E-M; Walzer, C; Burger, P A

    2011-02-01

    The cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been described as a species with low levels of genetic variation. This has been suggested to be the consequence of a demographic bottleneck 10 000-12 000 years ago (ya) and also led to the assumption that only small genetic differences exist between the described subspecies. However, analysing mitochondrial DNA and microsatellites in cheetah samples from most of the historic range of the species we found relatively deep phylogeographic breaks between some of the investigated populations, and most of the methods assessed divergence time estimates predating the postulated bottleneck. Mitochondrial DNA monophyly and overall levels of genetic differentiation support the distinctiveness of Northern-East African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus soemmeringii). Moreover, combining archaeozoological and contemporary samples, we show that Asiatic cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) are unambiguously separated from African subspecies. Divergence time estimates from mitochondrial and nuclear data place the split between Asiatic and Southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus jubatus) at 32 000-67 000 ya using an average mammalian microsatellite mutation rate and at 4700-44 000 ya employing human microsatellite mutation rates. Cheetahs are vulnerable to extinction globally and critically endangered in their Asiatic range, where the last 70-110 individuals survive only in Iran. We demonstrate that these extant Iranian cheetahs are an autochthonous monophyletic population and the last representatives of the Asiatic subspecies A. j. venaticus. We advocate that conservation strategies should consider the uncovered independent evolutionary histories of Asiatic and African cheetahs, as well as among some African subspecies. This would facilitate the dual conservation priorities of maintaining locally adapted ecotypes and genetic diversity.

  10. Long-term association between leisure-time physical activity and changes in happiness: analysis of the Prospective National Population Health Survey.

    PubMed

    Wang, Feng; Orpana, Heather M; Morrison, Howard; de Groh, Margaret; Dai, Sulan; Luo, Wei

    2012-12-15

    Happiness is among the most fundamental of all human goals. Although the short-term association between physical activity and happiness is well known, the long-term associations are not. Data from the National Population Health Survey cycles conducted between 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 (cycles 1 through 8) were analyzed. Happy respondents were classified as physically active or inactive at baseline and then were followed up in subsequent cycles to examine their likelihood of becoming unhappy. Individuals who changed their activity level also were examined. After controlling for potential confounding factors, the authors found that leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) was associated with reduced odds of unhappiness after 2 years and 4 years. People who were inactive in 2 consecutive cycles were more than twice as likely to be unhappy as those who remained active in both cycles after 2 years. Compared with those who became active, inactive participants who remained inactive were also more likely to become unhappy. A change in LTPA from active to inactive was associated with increased odds of becoming unhappy 2 years later. This study suggests that LTPA has a long-term association with happiness. Changes in LTPA are associated with subsequent mood status.

  11. Occurrence and Prevalence of Insect Pathogens in Populations of the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella L.: A Long-Term Diagnostic Survey

    PubMed Central

    Zimmermann, Gisbert; Huger, Alois M.; Kleespies, Regina G.

    2013-01-01

    About 20,550 larvae, pupae and adults of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella L., were diagnosed for pathogens during long-term investigations (1955–2012) at the Institute for Biological Control in Darmstadt, Germany. The prevailing entomopathogens diagnosed in these studies were insect pathogenic fungi, especially Beauveria bassiana and Isaria farinosa, the microsporidium, Nosema carpocapsae, the Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV), as well as mostly undetermined bacteria. While the CpGV was observed exclusively in larvae and pupae from laboratory colonies or from field experiments with this virus, entomopathogenic fungi were most frequently diagnosed in last instars in autumn and in diapausing larvae and pupae in spring. B. bassiana was identified as the major fungal pathogen, causing larval prevalences of 0.9% to 100% (mean, about 32%). During prognostic long-term studies in larvae and adults of C. pomonella, N. carpocapsae was diagnosed in codling moth populations from various locations in Germany. The mean prevalence generally ranged between 20% and 50%. Experiments revealed that the fecundity and fertility of microsporidia-infected female adults were significantly reduced compared to healthy ones. The results underpin the importance of naturally occurring microbial antagonists and represent a base for further ecological studies on developing new or additional biological and integrated control strategies. PMID:26462428

  12. Occurrence and Prevalence of Insect Pathogens in Populations of the Codling Moth, Cydia pomonella L.: A Long-Term Diagnostic Survey.

    PubMed

    Zimmermann, Gisbert; Huger, Alois M; Kleespies, Regina G

    2013-08-02

    About 20,550 larvae, pupae and adults of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella L., were diagnosed for pathogens during long-term investigations (1955-2012) at the Institute for Biological Control in Darmstadt, Germany. The prevailing entomopathogens diagnosed in these studies were insect pathogenic fungi, especially Beauveria bassiana and Isaria farinosa, the microsporidium, Nosema carpocapsae, the Cydia pomonella granulovirus (CpGV), as well as mostly undetermined bacteria. While the CpGV was observed exclusively in larvae and pupae from laboratory colonies or from field experiments with this virus, entomopathogenic fungi were most frequently diagnosed in last instars in autumn and in diapausing larvae and pupae in spring. B. bassiana was identified as the major fungal pathogen, causing larval prevalences of 0.9% to 100% (mean, about 32%). During prognostic long-term studies in larvae and adults of C. pomonella, N. carpocapsae was diagnosed in codling moth populations from various locations in Germany. The mean prevalence generally ranged between 20% and 50%. Experiments revealed that the fecundity and fertility of microsporidia-infected female adults were significantly reduced compared to healthy ones. The results underpin the importance of naturally occurring microbial antagonists and represent a base for further ecological studies on developing new or additional biological and integrated control strategies.

  13. Short and long term mortality rates associated with first pregnancy outcome: Population register based study for Denmark 1980–2004

    PubMed Central

    Reardon, David C.; Coleman, Priscilla K.

    2012-01-01

    Summary Background There is a growing interest in examining death rates associated with different pregnancy outcomes for time periods beyond one year. Previous population studies, however, have failed to control for complete reproductive histories. In this study we seek to eliminate the potential confounding effect of unknown prior pregnancy history by examining mortality rates associated specifically with first pregnancy outcome alone. We also examine differences in mortality rates associated with early abortion and late abortions (after 12 weeks). Material/Method Medical records for the entire population of women born in Denmark between 1962 and 1991 and were alive in 1980, were linked to death certificates. Mortality rates associated with first pregnancy outcomes (delivery, miscarriage, abortion, and late abortion) were calculated. Odds ratios examining death rates based on reproductive outcomes, adjusted for age at first pregnancy and year of women’s births, were also calculated. Results A total of 463,473 women had their first pregnancy between 1980 and 2004, of whom 2,238 died. In nearly all time periods examined, mortality rates associated with miscarriage or abortion of a first pregnancy were higher than those associated with birth. Compared to women who delivered, the age and birth year adjusted cumulative risk of death for women who had a first trimester abortion was significantly higher in all periods examined, from 180 days (OR=1.84; 1.11 <95% CI <3.71) through 10 years (1.39; 1.22 <95% CI <1.61), as was the risk for women who had abortions after 12 weeks from one year (OR=4.31; 2.18 <95% CI <8.54) through 10 years (OR=2.41; 1.56 <95% CI <2.41). For women who miscarried, the risk was significantly higher for cumulative deaths through 4 years (OR=1.75; 1.34 <95% CI <2.27) and at 10 years (OR=1.48; 1.18 <95% CI <1.85). Conclusions Compared to women who delivered, women who had an early or late abortion had significantly higher mortality rates within 1

  14. Resource limitation in natural populations of phytophagous insects. A long-term study case with the chestnut weevil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Debouzie, Domitien; Desouhant, Emmanuel; Oberli, Frantz; Menu, Frédéric

    2002-03-01

    The chestnut weevil, Curculio elephas (Gyll.), is a non-outbreaking species whose populations and food resources, the European chestnut, Castanea sativa, can be precisely defined. Thirteen and 17 generations of this insect were studied in two isolated sites. Field observations and experiments allowed us to estimate the absolute abundance, availability and use of chestnuts for weevil oviposition, and the number of weevil females emerging per site. Unavailable chestnuts were defined as the fruits either infested first by the chestnut moth ( Cydia splendana) larvae (because of competition between the two species) or those avoided by chestnut weevil females when selecting their egg-laying sites, independently of chestnut moth presence. From a third to a half of the chestnuts were not available on the average for weevil infestation. Only one-fourth, on the average, of those available for oviposition were actually used by chestnut weevil females. Regardless of year and site, the number of available chestnuts per weevil female was higher than that of weevil-infested fruits per female, considering global food resources independently of their temporal variation in quality. However, realized fecundity of weevil females was positively correlated with the mean number of available chestnuts per female. We concluded that food resources can be limiting without being fully exploited by females because of temporal variation in chestnut quality.

  15. Walleye consumption and long-term population trends following gizzard shad introduction into a Western South Dakota reservoir

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, M.J.; Willis, D.W.; Miller, B.H.; Chipps, S.R.

    2007-01-01

    The gizzard shad (Dorosoma cepedianum) was introduced into 1,955-ha Angostura Reservoir, South Dakota to provide increased prey resources for walleye (Sander vitreus). Linear correlation analysis indicated that following gizzard shad introduction, walleye catch-per-unit-effort and mean length at age have increased over time (r = 0.68 to 0.85, P = 0.02 to 0.001). Walleye stomach contents were collected monthly from April through September, 2004 to determine the extent to which age-0 gizzard shad were being utilized as prey during the growing season. Age-0 gizzard shad were absent from walleye diets from April to mid-July (pre-shad-available period); however, from mid-July through early September (shad-available period), age-0 gizzard shad were an important prey item in all walleye diets. Mean weight decreased for walleyes of ages 2-5 during the spring, before age-0 gizzard shad became available; however, growth rate of walleyes increased appreciably during the shad-available period and was attributable to consumption of age-0 shad prey. In Angostura Reservoir, which lies at the northwestern edge of the gizzard shad range, walleye population characteristics have improved following shad introduction and during 2004, age-0 shad directly affected walleye feeding and growth.

  16. Long-Term Clinical Impact of Vascular Brain Lesions on Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Older Adults in the Population.

    PubMed

    Kaffashian, Sara; Soumaré, Aïcha; Zhu, Yi-Cheng; Mazoyer, Bernard; Debette, Stéphanie; Tzourio, Christophe

    2016-11-01

    White matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume and covert brain infarcts are highly prevalent in older adults and are often asymptomatic. We compared the impact of WMH volume and brain infarcts on risk of clinical stroke and dementia in older adults in the population. Participants were 1677 individuals aged ≥65 years from the 3-City Dijon study, who were free of stroke and dementia at baseline, followed-up for ≤12 years. Both lesion types were comparably associated with an increased risk of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.72; 95% confidence interval, 1.24-2.40 for WMH volume and hazard ratio, 2.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.18-3.93 for brain infarcts), but only WMH volume was associated with an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.83). The differential impact of WMH and brain infarcts on clinical stroke and dementia suggests relatively different prognostic value of the 2 lesions. WMHs may represent a particularly pertinent magnetic resonance imaging intermediate marker that can be utilized in optimizing prevention strategies for both stroke and dementia in primary care and in trials. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  17. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  18. Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2015-09-10

    Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic

  19. Validation of the Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) pulmonary hypertension prediction model in a unique population and utility in the prediction of long-term survival.

    PubMed

    Cogswell, Rebecca; Kobashigawa, Erin; McGlothlin, Dana; Shaw, Robin; De Marco, Teresa

    2012-11-01

    The Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term Pulmonary Arterial (PAH) Hypertension Disease Management (REVEAL) model was designed to predict 1-year survival in patients with PAH. Multivariate prediction models need to be evaluated in cohorts distinct from the derivation set to determine external validity. In addition, limited data exist on the utility of this model in the prediction of long-term survival. REVEAL model performance was assessed to predict 1-year and 5-year outcomes, defined as survival or composite survival or freedom from lung transplant, in 140 patients with PAH. The validation cohort had a higher proportion of human immunodeficiency virus (7.9% vs 1.9%, p < 0.0001), methamphetamine use (19.3% vs 4.9%, p < 0.0001), and portal hypertension PAH (16.4% vs 5.1%, p < 0.0001) compared with the development cohort. The C-index of the model to predict survival was 0.765 at 1 year and 0.712 at 5 years of follow-up. The C-index of the model to predict composite survival or freedom from lung transplant was 0.805 and 0.724 at 1 and 5 years of follow-up, respectively. Prediction by the model, however, was weakest among patients with intermediate-risk predicted survival. The REVEAL model had adequate discrimination to predict 1-year survival in this small but clinically distinct validation cohort. Although the model also had predictive ability out to 5 years, prediction was limited among patients of intermediate risk, suggesting our prediction methods can still be improved. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  20. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

    PubMed

    Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

    2013-01-01

    Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can promote

  1. Long-term analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in population dynamics and demography of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chacin, D. H.; Switzer, T. S.; Ainsworth, C. H.; Stallings, C. D.

    2016-12-01

    In estuarine systems, proximity to the ocean has the potential to directly and indirectly drive patterns of fish distribution and population dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-independent data and quantified patterns of density, biomass, and growth rates of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across spatial and temporal scales in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Spatially, the highest density and biomass were found in the outermost regions (closest to the Gulf of Mexico) of the Bay, and these patterns were generally consistent temporally. Inter-annually, Pinfish density and biomass were the highest during periods coinciding with favorable oceanographic conditions (e.g., anomalously intense and prolonged upwelling) for across-shelf transport of larvae from spawning grounds in the Gulf to Tampa Bay. Intra-annually, density and biomass were the highest during spring and summer likely due to the combined effects of spawning timing (and delivery of new settlers), and high somatic growth fueled by increased secondary and primary productivity. Declines in density and biomass during the late summer through early winter were possibly due to high post-settlement mortality and egress to offshore habitats. Pinfish increased predictably in size across the months of the calendar year, and tended to be larger and grew faster in the innermost regions of the Bay, which were located farthest from the Gulf. Pinfish density was related to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, with the outermost regions of the Bay having greater seagrass cover, higher salinity, and being closer to the offshore larval pool where spawning occurs. Thus, this study provided evidence that distance to the ocean was an important driver of biotic and abiotic factors that influenced Pinfish demographic rates across spatial and temporal scales in the largest estuary in Florida.

  2. Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider

    PubMed Central

    Jónsson, Jón Einar; Gardarsson, Arnthor; Gill, Jennifer A.; Pétursdóttir, Una Krístín; Petersen, Aevar; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar

    2013-01-01

    Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1) demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900–2007; and 2) impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years) on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2–3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918) and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995). In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers can

  3. Predictors of psychiatric readmissions in the short- and long-term: a population-based study in taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Chuan-Hsiung; Chen, Wen-Ling; Lin, Chih-Ming; Lee, Ming-Der; Ko, Ming-Chung; Li, Chung-Yi

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To explore the risks and rates of readmission and their predictors 14 days, one year, and five years after discharge for the psychiatric population in Taiwan. METHODS This was a prospective study based on claims from 44,237 first-time hospitalized psychiatric patients discharged in 2000, who were followed for up to five years after discharge. The cumulative incidence and incidence density of readmission were calculated for various follow-up periods after discharge, and Cox proportional hazard models were generated to identify the significant predictors for psychiatric readmission. RESULTS The less than 14-day, one-year, and five-year cumulative incidences were estimated at 6.1%, 22.3%, and 37.8%, respectively. The corresponding figures for incidence density were 4.58, 1.04, and 0.69 per 1,000 person-days, respectively. Certain factors were significantly associated with increased risk of readmission irrespective of the length of follow-up, including male gender, length of hospital stay >15 days, economic poverty, a leading discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia/affective disorders, and residence in less-urbanized regions. Compared to children/adolescents, young adults (20–39 years) were significantly associated with increased risks of

  4. Population-level Consequences of Breeding Phenology in Response to Climate Variability in Seabirds and Landbirds: Two Long-term Studies From California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warzybok, P.; Nur, N.; Bradley, R.; Sydeman, W. J.; Abraham, C.; Chase, M. K.

    2007-12-01

    Long-term studies conducted on breeding populations on the Farallon Islands (1971 to 2007) and in the Point Reyes National Seashore (1980 to 2007), provide the means to characterize breeding phenology of seabird and landbird species and determine how that has changed over multiple temporal scales (variation among years, among decades, shifts in ocean regimes, etc.). However, to interpret phenological patterns and shifts requires information on the demography and ecological context of these species. Here we describe studies on three seabird species (Common Murre Uria aalge, Cassin's Auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus, Brandt's Cormorant, Phalacrocorax penicillatus) where we have tied changes in breeding phenology, within a year, and among years, to demographic consequences (reproductive success, proportion of the population that breeds, adult survival, etc.). In addition, for these species we have information on diet choice of parents feeding chicks and how that has varied within and among years, as well as oceanographic correlates (sea surface temperature, upwelling indices, etc). Results reveal marked variation among the species in their response to oceanographic and climate variability, reflecting their different ecologies. We describe how these results can be used to forecast response to future climate change, as well as to interpret year by response to climate variability. We also summarize results from a long-term study of Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), where we have investigated onset and termination of breeding and the climate factors that may influence it, while identifying the population-level responses associated with phenological shifts. We close by making recommendations for large-scale monitoring of phenology based on these more localized studies.

  5. Ginkgo Biloba Extract and Long-Term Cognitive Decline: A 20-Year Follow-Up Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Amieva, Hélène; Meillon, Céline; Helmer, Catherine; Barberger-Gateau, Pascale; Dartigues, Jean François

    2013-01-01

    Background Numerous studies have looked at the potential benefits of various nootropic drugs such as Ginkgo biloba extract (EGb761®; Tanakan®) and piracetam (Nootropyl®) on age-related cognitive decline often leading to inconclusive results due to small sample sizes or insufficient follow-up duration. The present study assesses the association between intake of EGb761® and cognitive function of elderly adults over a 20-year period. Methods and Findings The data were gathered from the prospective community-based cohort study ‘Paquid’. Within the study sample of 3612 non-demented participants aged 65 and over at baseline, three groups were compared: 589 subjects reporting use of EGb761® at at least one of the ten assessment visits, 149 subjects reporting use of piracetam at one of the assessment visits and 2874 subjects not reporting use of either EGb761® or piracetam. Decline on MMSE, verbal fluency and visual memory over the 20-year follow-up was analysed with a multivariate mixed linear effects model. A significant difference in MMSE decline over the 20-year follow-up was observed in the EGb761® and piracetam treatment groups compared to the ‘neither treatment’ group. These effects were in opposite directions: the EGb761® group declined less rapidly than the ‘neither treatment’ group, whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (β = −0.6). Regarding verbal fluency and visual memory, no difference was observed between the EGb761® group and the ‘neither treatment’ group (respectively, β = 0.21 and β = −0.03), whereas the piracetam group declined more rapidly (respectively, β = −1.40 and β = −0.44). When comparing the EGb761® and piracetam groups directly, a different decline was observed for the three tests (respectively β = −1.07, β = −1.61 and β = −0.41). Conclusion Cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population was lower in subjects who reported using EGb761® than in

  6. Anemia prevalence and hemoglobin levels are associated with long-term exposure to air pollution in an older population.

    PubMed

    Honda, Trenton; Pun, Vivian C; Manjourides, Justin; Suh, Helen

    2017-04-01

    Anemia, a highly prevalent disorder in elderly populations, is associated with numerous adverse health outcomes, including increased mortality, impaired functional status and cognitive disorders. Approximately two-thirds of anemia in American elderly is caused by chronic inflammation or is unexplained. A potential contributing factor may include air pollution exposures, which have been shown to increase systemic inflammation and affect erythropoiesis. Few studies, however, have investigated the associations of air pollution on hemoglobin levels and anemia. We used linear regression models and modified Poisson regression with robust error variance to examine the associations of particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on hemoglobin concentrations and prevalence of anemia, respectively, among 4121 older Americans enrolled in the National Social Life, Health, and Aging Project. We estimated participant-specific exposures to PM2.5 using spatio-temporal models, and to NO2 using nearest measurements from Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System. Hemoglobin levels were measured for participants in each of two data collection waves from dried blood spots. Anemia was defined using World Health Organization hemoglobin-based criteria of <13 and <12g/dL for men and women, respectively. Models were adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, race, income, education, neighborhood socioeconomic status, region, urbanicity and medication use. Mediation by C-reactive protein (CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation, was also investigated. An inter-quartile range (IQR, 3.9μg/m(3)) increase in the one-year moving average PM2.5 was positively associated with anemia prevalence (prevalence ratio, or PR 1.33, 95% CI: 1.23, 1.45) and decreases in average hemoglobin of 0.81g/dL (p<0.001). Similarly, an IQR (9.6ppb) increase in NO2 was associated with anemia prevalence (PR 1.43, 95% CI: 1.25, 1.63) and a decrease in average hemoglobin of 0.81g/dL (p<0.001). Strong dose

  7. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird

    PubMed Central

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-01-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size. PMID:24713824

  8. Population signatures of large-scale, long-term disjunction and small-scale, short-term habitat fragmentation in an Afromontane forest bird.

    PubMed

    Habel, J C; Mulwa, R K; Gassert, F; Rödder, D; Ulrich, W; Borghesio, L; Husemann, M; Lens, L

    2014-09-01

    The Eastern Afromontane cloud forests occur as geographically distinct mountain exclaves. The conditions of these forests range from large to small and from fairly intact to strongly degraded. For this study, we sampled individuals of the forest bird species, the Montane White-eye Zosterops poliogaster from 16 sites and four mountain archipelagos. We analysed 12 polymorphic microsatellites and three phenotypic traits, and calculated Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to project past distributions and predict potential future range shifts under a scenario of climate warming. We found well-supported genetic and morphologic clusters corresponding to the mountain ranges where populations were sampled, with 43% of all alleles being restricted to single mountains. Our data suggest that large-scale and long-term geographic isolation on mountain islands caused genetically and morphologically distinct population clusters in Z. poliogaster. However, major genetic and biometric splits were not correlated to the geographic distances among populations. This heterogeneous pattern can be explained by past climatic shifts, as highlighted by our SDM projections. Anthropogenically fragmented populations showed lower genetic diversity and a lower mean body mass, possibly in response to suboptimal habitat conditions. On the basis of these findings and the results from our SDM analysis we predict further loss of genotypic and phenotypic uniqueness in the wake of climate change, due to the contraction of the species' climatic niche and subsequent decline in population size.

  9. Moving house: long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are unaltered in translocated populations of a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus)

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, Lindsay E.; Cree, Alison; Towns, David R.; Nelson, Nicola J.

    2015-01-01

    Translocations are an important conservation tool used to restore at-risk species to their historical range. Unavoidable procedures during translocations, such as habitat disturbance, capture, handling, processing, captivity, transport and release to a novel environment, have the potential to be stressful for most species. In this study, we examined acute and chronic stress (through the measurement of the glucocorticoid corticosterone) in a rare reptile (the tuatara, Sphenodon punctatus). We found that: (i) the acute corticosterone response remains elevated during the initial translocation process but is not amplified by cumulative stressors; and (ii) the long-term dynamics of corticosterone secretion are similar in translocated and source populations. Taken together, our results show that translocated tuatara are generally resistant to cumulative acute stressors and show no hormonal sign of chronic stress. Translocation efforts in tuatara afford the potential to reduce extinction risk and restore natural ecosystems. PMID:27293699

  10. Risk of death from cardiovascular disease associated with low-level arsenic exposure among long-term smokers in a US population-based study

    SciTech Connect

    Farzan, Shohreh F.; Chen, Yu; Rees, Judy R.; Zens, M. Scot; Karagas, Margaret R.

    2015-09-01

    High levels of arsenic exposure have been associated with increases in cardiovascular disease risk. However, studies of arsenic's effects at lower exposure levels are limited and few prospective studies exist in the United States using long-term arsenic exposure biomarkers. We conducted a prospective analysis of the association between toenail arsenic and cardiovascular disease mortality using longitudinal data collected on 3939 participants in the New Hampshire Skin Cancer Study. Using Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders, we estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with the risk of death from any cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, in relation to natural-log transformed toenail arsenic concentrations. In this US population, although we observed no overall association, arsenic exposure measured from toenail clipping samples was related to an increased risk of ischemic heart disease mortality among long-term smokers (as reported at baseline), with increased hazard ratios among individuals with ≥ 31 total smoking years (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.02, 2.27), ≥ 30 pack-years (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.12, 2.45), and among current smokers (HR: 1.69, 95% CI: 1.04, 2.75). These results are consistent with evidence from more highly exposed populations suggesting a synergistic relationship between arsenic exposure and smoking on health outcomes and support a role for lower-level arsenic exposure in ischemic heart disease mortality. - Highlights: • Arsenic (As) has been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. • Little is known about CVD effects at lower levels of As exposure common in the US. • Few have investigated the joint effects of As and smoking on CVD in US adults. • We examine chronic low-level As exposure and smoking in relation to CVD mortality. • Arsenic exposure may increase ischemic heart disease mortality among smokers in US.

  11. Declining Long-Term Risk of Adverse Events after First-time Community-presenting Venous Thromboembolism: The Population-based Worcester VTE Study (1999 to 2009)

    PubMed Central

    Huang, W.; Goldberg, R.J.; Cohen, A.T.; Anderson, F.A.; Kiefe, C.I.; Gore, J.M.; Spencer, F.A.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Contemporary trends in health-care delivery are shifting the management of venous thromboembolism (VTE) events (deep vein thrombosis [DVT] and/or pulmonary embolism [PE]) from the hospital to the community, which may have implications for its prevention, treatment, and outcomes. Materials and Methods Population-based surveillance study monitoring trends in clinical epidemiology among residents of the Worcester, Massachusetts, metropolitan statistical area (WMSA) diagnosed with an acute VTE in all 12 WMSA hospitals. Patients were followed for up to 3 years after their index event. Total of 2334 WMSA residents diagnosed with first-time community-presenting VTE (occurring in an ambulatory setting or diagnosed within 24 hours of hospitalization) from 1999 through 2009. Results While PE patients were consistently admitted to the hospital for treatment over time, the proportion diagnosed with DVT-alone admitted to the hospital decreased from 67% in 1999 to 37% in 2009 (p value for trend <0.001). Among hospitalized patients, the mean length of stay decreased from 5.6 to 4.8 days (p value for trend <0.001). Between 1999 and 2009, treatment of VTE shifted from warfarin and unfractionated heparin towards use of low-molecular-weight heparins and newer anticoagulants; also, 3-year cumulative event rates decreased for all-cause mortality (41–26%), major bleeding (12–6%), and recurrent VTE (17–9%). Conclusions A decade of change in VTE management was accompanied by improved long-term outcomes. However, rates of adverse events remained fairly high in our population-based surveillance study, implying that new risk-assessment tools to identify individuals at increased risk for developing major adverse outcomes over the long-term are needed. PMID:25921936

  12. Recent trends in long-term survival of patients with chronic myelocytic leukemia: disclosing the impact of advances in therapy on the population level.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Hermann; Gondos, Adam; Pulte, Dianne

    2008-10-01

    Within the past decades, major advances in therapy for chronic myelocytic leukemia, including allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, interferon therapy, and, more recently, also therapy with the tyrosine kinase inhibitor imatinib, have entered clinical practice. The impact of these advances on long-term survival on the population level should be disclosed as timely as possible. We estimated trends in age specific 5- and 10-year relative survival of chronic myelocytic leukemia patients in the United States from 1990-1992 to 2002-2004. Our analysis is based on records from 8,329 patients aged 15 years or older with a first diagnosis of chronic myelocytic leukemia included in the 1973-2004 data base of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Period analysis was used to disclose recent developments with minimum delay. Overall, 5-year relative survival increased from 27 to 49%, and 10-year relative survival increased from 9.5 to 34% between 1990-92 and 2002-04. The increase was most dramatic for younger patients, with 10-year relative survival increasing from 16 to 72% in age group 15-44 years, from 12 to 54% in age group 45-54 years, and from 8 to 34% in age group 55-64 years (p<0.0001 in all cases). Improvements were more modest and not statistically significant, and survival remained at much lower levels among age groups 65-74 and 75+ years. Our analysis discloses a dramatic recent increase in long-term survival of younger patients with chronic myelocytic leukemia which most likely reflects rapid dissemination of advances in therapy on the population level.

  13. Long-Term Enrichment of Stress-Tolerant Cellulolytic Soil Populations following Timber Harvesting Evidenced by Multi-Omic Stable Isotope Probing

    PubMed Central

    Wilhelm, Roland C.; Cardenas, Erick; Leung, Hilary; Szeitz, András; Jensen, Lionel D.; Mohn, William W.

    2017-01-01

    Soil management is vital for maintaining the productivity of commercial forests, yet the long-term impact of timber harvesting on soil microbial communities remains largely a matter of conjecture. Decomposition of plant biomass, comprised mainly of lignocellulose, has a broad impact on nutrient cycling, microbial activity and physicochemical characteristics of soil. At “Long-term Soil Productivity Study” sites in California dominated by Ponderosa pine, we tested whether clear-cut timber harvesting, accompanied by varying degrees of organic matter (OM) removal, affected the activity and structure of the cellulose-degrading microbial populations 16 years after harvesting. Using a variety of experimental approaches, including stable isotope probing with 13C-labeled cellulose in soil microcosms, we demonstrated that harvesting led to a decrease in net respiration and cellulolytic activity. The decrease in cellulolytic activity was associated with an increased relative abundance of thermophilic, cellulolytic fungi (Chaetomiaceae), coupled with a decreased relative abundance of cellulolytic bacteria, particularly members of Opitutaceae, Caulobacter, and Streptomycetaceae. In general, harvesting led to an increase in stress-tolerant taxa (i.e., also non-cellulolytic taxa), though our results indicated that OM retention mitigated population shifts via buffering against abiotic changes. Stable-isotope probing improved shotgun metagenome assembly by 20-fold and enabled the recovery of 10 metagenome-assembled genomes of cellulolytic bacteria and fungi. Our study demonstrates the putative cellulolytic activity of a number of uncultured taxa and highlights the mineral soil layer as a reservoir of uncharacterized diversity of cellulose-degraders. It also and contributes to a growing body of research showing persistent changes in microbial community structure in the decades following forest harvesting. PMID:28443069

  14. Causes of Morbidity in Wild Raptor Populations Admitted at a Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre in Spain from 1995-2007: A Long Term Retrospective Study

    PubMed Central

    Molina-López, Rafael A.; Casal, Jordi; Darwich, Laila

    2011-01-01

    Background Morbidity studies complement the understanding of hazards to raptors by identifying natural or anthropogenic factors. Descriptive epidemiological studies of wildlife have become an important source of information about hazards to wildlife populations. On the other hand, data referenced to the overall wild population could provide a more accurate assessment of the potential impact of the morbidity/mortality causes in populations of wild birds. Methodology/Principal Findings The present study described the morbidity causes of hospitalized wild raptors and their incidence in the wild populations, through a long term retrospective study conducted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre of Catalonia (1995–2007). Importantly, Seasonal Cumulative Incidences (SCI) were calculated considering estimations of the wild population in the region and trend analyses were applied among the different years. A total of 7021 birds were analysed: 7 species of Strigiformes (n = 3521) and 23 of Falconiformes (n = 3500). The main causes of morbidity were trauma (49.5%), mostly in the Falconiformes, and orphaned/young birds (32.2%) mainly in the Strigiformes. During wintering periods, the largest morbidity incidence was observed in Accipiter gentillis due to gunshot wounds and in Tyto alba due to vehicle trauma. Within the breeding season, Falco tinnunculus (orphaned/young category) and Bubo bubo (electrocution and metabolic disorders) represented the most affected species. Cases due to orphaned/young, infectious/parasitic diseases, electrocution and unknown trauma tended to increase among years. By contrast, cases by undetermined cause, vehicle trauma and captivity decreased throughout the study period. Interestingly, gunshot injuries remained constant during the study period. Conclusions/Significance Frequencies of morbidity causes calculated as the proportion of each cause referred to the total number of admitted cases, allowed a qualitative assessment of hazards for

  15. Causes of morbidity in wild raptor populations admitted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre in Spain from 1995-2007: a long term retrospective study.

    PubMed

    Molina-López, Rafael A; Casal, Jordi; Darwich, Laila

    2011-01-01

    Morbidity studies complement the understanding of hazards to raptors by identifying natural or anthropogenic factors. Descriptive epidemiological studies of wildlife have become an important source of information about hazards to wildlife populations. On the other hand, data referenced to the overall wild population could provide a more accurate assessment of the potential impact of the morbidity/mortality causes in populations of wild birds. The present study described the morbidity causes of hospitalized wild raptors and their incidence in the wild populations, through a long term retrospective study conducted at a wildlife rehabilitation centre of Catalonia (1995-2007). Importantly, Seasonal Cumulative Incidences (SCI) were calculated considering estimations of the wild population in the region and trend analyses were applied among the different years. A total of 7021 birds were analysed: 7 species of Strigiformes (n = 3521) and 23 of Falconiformes (n = 3500). The main causes of morbidity were trauma (49.5%), mostly in the Falconiformes, and orphaned/young birds (32.2%) mainly in the Strigiformes. During wintering periods, the largest morbidity incidence was observed in Accipiter gentillis due to gunshot wounds and in Tyto alba due to vehicle trauma. Within the breeding season, Falco tinnunculus (orphaned/young category) and Bubo bubo (electrocution and metabolic disorders) represented the most affected species. Cases due to orphaned/young, infectious/parasitic diseases, electrocution and unknown trauma tended to increase among years. By contrast, cases by undetermined cause, vehicle trauma and captivity decreased throughout the study period. Interestingly, gunshot injuries remained constant during the study period. Frequencies of morbidity causes calculated as the proportion of each cause referred to the total number of admitted cases, allowed a qualitative assessment of hazards for the studied populations. However, cumulative incidences based on

  16. Developing a protocol for long-term population monitoring and habitat projections for a climate-sensitive sentinel species to track ecosystem change and species range shifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beers, A.

    2016-12-01

    As a response to ongoing climate change, many species have started to shift their ranges poleward and toward higher elevations and mountain environments are predicted to experience especially rapid climatic changes. Because of this, there is likely a greater risk of habitat loss and local extinctions for species at high elevations compared to species at lower elevations. Among those potentially threatened habitat specialists is the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a climate sensitive indicator of climate change effects which may already be experiencing climate driven extirpations. Pikas are considered sentinels, indicators of greater ecosystem change. Changes in their distribution speaks to changes in availability of resources they require and shifts in the environment. Pika presence is closely tied to sub-surface ice features that act as a temperature buffer and water source. Those sub-surface ice features are critical in water cycling and long-term water storage and drive downstream hydrological and ecological processes. Understanding how this species responds to climate change therefore provides a model to inform landscape level conservation and management decisions. Pikas may be particularly vulnerable in parts of Colorado, including Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO) and the Niwot Ridge LTER (NWT), where they may face population collapse as habitat suitability and connectivity both decline in response to various possible climate change scenarios, in large part because of cold stress and declining functional connectivity. Because of their potential role as an ecosystem indicator, their risk for decline, and how limitations to their survival likely vary across their range, management groups can use place based models of habitat suitability for pikas or other sentinel species in designing long term monitoring protocols to detect ecosystem responses to climate change. In this project we used remotely sensed data, occupancy surveys, and a random tessellation

  17. Isolation in a single step of a highly enriched murine hematopoietic stem cell population with competitive long-term repopulating ability

    SciTech Connect

    Szilvassy, S.J.; Lansdorp, P.M.; Humphries, R.K.; Eaves, A.C.; Eaves, C.J. )

    1989-08-15

    A simple procedure is described for the quantitation and enrichment of murine hematopoietic cells with the capacity for long-term repopulation of lymphoid and myeloid tissues in lethally irradiated mice. To ensure detection of the most primitive marrow cells with this potential, we used a competitive assay in which female recipients were injected with male test cells and 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells with normal short-term repopulating ability, but whose long-term repopulating ability had been reduced by serial transplantation. Primitive hematopoietic cells were purified by flow cytometry and sorting based on their forward and orthogonal light-scattering properties, and Thy-1 and H-2K antigen expression. Enrichment profiles for normal marrow, and marrow of mice injected with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) four days previously, were established for each of these parameters using an in vitro assay for high proliferative potential, pluripotent colony-forming cells. When all four parameters were gated simultaneously, these clonogenic cells were enriched 100-fold. Both day 9 and day 12 CFU-S were copurified; however, the purity (23%) and enrichment (75-fold) of day 12 CFU-S in the sorted population was greater with 5-FU-treated cells. Five hundred of the sorted 5-FU marrow cells consistently repopulated recipient lymphoid and myeloid tissues (greater than 50% male, 1 to 3 months post-transplant) when co-injected with 1 to 2 x 10(5) compromised female marrow cells, and approximately 100 were sufficient to achieve the same result in 50% of recipients under the same conditions. This relatively simple purification and assay strategy should facilitate further analysis of the heterogeneity and regulation of stem cells that maintain hematopoiesis in vivo.

  18. Long-term Formation of Aggressive Bony Lesions in Dogs with Mid-Diaphyseal Fractures Stabilized with Metallic Plates: Incidence in a Tertiary Referral Hospital Population

    PubMed Central

    Gilley, Robert S.; Hiebert, Elizabeth; Clapp, Kemba; Bartl-Wilson, Lara; Nappier, Michael; Werre, Stephen; Barnes, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of complications secondary to fracture stabilization, particularly osteolytic lesions and bony tumor formation, has long been difficult to evaluate. The objective of this study was to describe the long-term incidence of aggressive bony changes developing in dogs with long bone diaphyseal fractures stabilized by metallic bone plates compared to a breed-, sex-, and age-matched control group. The medical records of a tertiary referral center were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that matched each respective criterion. Signalment, history, cause of death (if applicable), and aggressive bony changes at previous fracture sites were recorded. Ninety dogs met the criteria for inclusion in the fracture group and were matched with appropriate control dogs. Four of the dogs in the fracture group developed aggressive bony changes at the site of previous fracture repairs most consistent with osseous neoplasia. One lesion was confirmed with cytology as neoplastic. The population of dogs was mixed with regard to breed and body weight, but all dogs with aggressive bony lesions were male. Incidence of aggressive bony lesion formation in the fracture group was 4 (4.4%) and was 0 (0%) in the control group; three (75%) of the affected dogs in the fracture group included cerclage as a component of their primary fracture stabilizations. Incidence of aggressive bony lesions in the fracture group compared to the control group was determined to be statistically significant (p = 0.0455), as was the incidence of cerclage among dogs affected by aggressive bony lesions compared to the rest of the fracture group (p = 0.0499). Development of aggressive bony lesions is an uncommon complication of fracture fixation. Additional research is needed to further identify and elucidate the long-term effects of metallic implants in dogs. PMID:28197406

  19. Long-term Formation of Aggressive Bony Lesions in Dogs with Mid-Diaphyseal Fractures Stabilized with Metallic Plates: Incidence in a Tertiary Referral Hospital Population.

    PubMed

    Gilley, Robert S; Hiebert, Elizabeth; Clapp, Kemba; Bartl-Wilson, Lara; Nappier, Michael; Werre, Stephen; Barnes, Katherine

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of complications secondary to fracture stabilization, particularly osteolytic lesions and bony tumor formation, has long been difficult to evaluate. The objective of this study was to describe the long-term incidence of aggressive bony changes developing in dogs with long bone diaphyseal fractures stabilized by metallic bone plates compared to a breed-, sex-, and age-matched control group. The medical records of a tertiary referral center were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that matched each respective criterion. Signalment, history, cause of death (if applicable), and aggressive bony changes at previous fracture sites were recorded. Ninety dogs met the criteria for inclusion in the fracture group and were matched with appropriate control dogs. Four of the dogs in the fracture group developed aggressive bony changes at the site of previous fracture repairs most consistent with osseous neoplasia. One lesion was confirmed with cytology as neoplastic. The population of dogs was mixed with regard to breed and body weight, but all dogs with aggressive bony lesions were male. Incidence of aggressive bony lesion formation in the fracture group was 4 (4.4%) and was 0 (0%) in the control group; three (75%) of the affected dogs in the fracture group included cerclage as a component of their primary fracture stabilizations. Incidence of aggressive bony lesions in the fracture group compared to the control group was determined to be statistically significant (p = 0.0455), as was the incidence of cerclage among dogs affected by aggressive bony lesions compared to the rest of the fracture group (p = 0.0499). Development of aggressive bony lesions is an uncommon complication of fracture fixation. Additional research is needed to further identify and elucidate the long-term effects of metallic implants in dogs.

  20. Long-term assessment of recruitment, early stages and population dynamics of the endangered Mediterranean fan mussel Pinna nobilis in the Columbretes Islands (NW Mediterranean).

    PubMed

    Kersting, Diego K; García-March, José R

    2017-09-01

    A long-term experimental approach was undertaken to assess viability and resilience of the endangered Mediterranean fan mussel Pinna nobilis. Artificial and natural recruitment, mortality, population traits and juvenile growth were assessed in seasonal and annual surveys. In the Columbretes Islands, P. nobilis thrives in differing substrate types, from coarse sand to boulders, in Cymodocea nodosa meadows and among rhodoliths, and is always found sharing habitat with the less abundant sibling species P. rudis. In artificial collectors larval settlement occurred over a several months period, concentrating its peak in September and resulting from two separated spawning events. Recruitment in the collectors showed high inter-annual variability and was independent of depth, but positively correlated with seasonal water temperature increase in June. Natural recruitment of P. nobilis was low and showed little variability, evidencing the existence of intense post-settlement processes. Adult mortality was also low, thus leading to slow population dynamics and to the species' vulnerability to catastrophic events. Population size structure suggests the existence of a refuge size above 45 cm shell length. The fast growth during the first years of life would help shortening this vulnerability period. Altogether, essential information and tools for the species' conservation are provided, which will be critical in the current context of mass mortalities affecting P. nobilis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Community composition and population genetics of insect pathogenic fungi in the genus Metarhizium from soils of a long-term agricultural research system.

    PubMed

    Kepler, Ryan M; Ugine, Todd A; Maul, Jude E; Cavigelli, Michel A; Rehner, Stephen A

    2015-08-01

    Fungi in the genus Metarhizium are insect pathogens able to function in other niches, including soil and plant rhizosphere habitats. In agroecosystems, cropping and tillage practices influence soil fungal communities with unknown effects on the distribution of Metarhizium, whose presence can reduce populations of crop pests. We report results from a selective media survey of Metarhizium in soils sampled from a long-term experimental farming project in the mid-Atlantic region. Field plots under soybean cultivation produced higher numbers of Metarhizium colony-forming units (cfu) than corn or alfalfa. Plots managed organically and via chisel-till harboured higher numbers of Metarhizium cfu than no-till plots. Sequence typing of Metarhizium isolates revealed four species, with M. robertsii and M. brunneum predominating. The M. brunneum population was essentially fixed for a single clone as determined by multilocus microsatellite genotyping. In contrast, M. robertsii was found to contain significant diversity, with the majority of isolates distributed between two principal clades. Evidence for recombination was observed only in the most abundant clade. These findings illuminate multiple levels of Metarhizium diversity that can be used to inform strategies by which soil Metarhizium populations may be manipulated to exert downward pressure on pest insects and promote plant health.

  2. Dynamics of long-term genomic selection

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Simulation and empirical studies of genomic selection (GS) show accuracies sufficient to generate rapid gains in early selection cycles. Beyond those cycles, allele frequency changes, recombination, and inbreeding make analytical prediction of gain impossible. The impacts of GS on long-term gain should be studied prior to its implementation. Methods A simulation case-study of this issue was done for barley, an inbred crop. On the basis of marker data on 192 breeding lines from an elite six-row spring barley program, stochastic simulation was used to explore the effects of large or small initial training populations with heritabilities of 0.2 or 0.5, applying GS before or after phenotyping, and applying additional weight on low-frequency favorable marker alleles. Genomic predictions were from ridge regression or a Bayesian analysis. Results Assuming that applying GS prior to phenotyping shortened breeding cycle time by 50%, this practice strongly increased early selection gains but also caused the loss of many favorable QTL alleles, leading to loss of genetic variance, loss of GS accuracy, and a low selection plateau. Placing additional weight on low-frequency favorable marker alleles, however, allowed GS to increase their frequency earlier on, causing an initial increase in genetic variance. This dynamic led to higher long-term gain while mitigating losses in short-term gain. Weighted GS also increased the maintenance of marker polymorphism, ensuring that QTL-marker linkage disequilibrium was higher than in unweighted GS. Conclusions Losing favorable alleles that are in weak linkage disequilibrium with markers is perhaps inevitable when using GS. Placing additional weight on low-frequency favorable alleles, however, may reduce the rate of loss of such alleles to below that of phenotypic selection. Applying such weights at the beginning of GS implementation is important. PMID:20712894

  3. Dynamics of coastal cod populations: intra- and intercohort density dependence and stochastic processes

    PubMed Central

    Stenseth, N. C.; rnstad, O. N. Bj; Falck, W.; Fromentin, J.-M.; ter, J. Gj s; Gray, J. S.

    1999-01-01

    Skagerrak populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) have been surveyed at several fixed stations since 1919. These coastal populations consist of local stocks with a low age of maturity and a short life span. We investigated 60 time-series of 0-group juveniles (i.e. young of the year) sampled annually from 1945 to 1994. An age-structured model was developed which incorporates asymmetrical interactions between the juvenile cohorts (0-group and 1-group; i.e. one-year-old juveniles) and stochastic reproduction. The model was expressed in delay coordinates in order to estimate model parameters directly from the time-series and thereby test the model predictions. The autocovariance structure of the time-series was consistent with the delay coordinates model superimposed upon a long-term trend. The model illustrates how both regulatory (density-dependent) and disruptive (stochastic) forces are crucial in shaping the dynamics of the coastal cod populations. The age-structured life cycle acts to resonance the stochasticity inherent in the recruitment process.

  4. Distribution of population-averaged observables in stochastic gene expression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bhattacharyya, Bhaswati; Kalay, Ziya

    2014-01-01

    Observation of phenotypic diversity in a population of genetically identical cells is often linked to the stochastic nature of chemical reactions involved in gene regulatory networks. We investigate the distribution of population-averaged gene expression levels as a function of population, or sample, size for several stochastic gene expression models to find out to what extent population-averaged quantities reflect the underlying mechanism of gene expression. We consider three basic gene regulation networks corresponding to transcription with and without gene state switching and translation. Using analytical expressions for the probability generating function of observables and large deviation theory, we calculate the distribution and first two moments of the population-averaged mRNA and protein levels as a function of model parameters, population size, and number of measurements contained in a data set. We validate our results using stochastic simulations also report exact results on the asymptotic properties of population averages which show qualitative differences among different models.

  5. [Blood Levels of Proprotein Convertase Subtilisin/Kexin Type 9 (PCSK9) in Men from Different Population Groups and Its Relation to Unfavorable Long-Term Prognosis].

    PubMed

    Ragino, Yu I; Astrakova, K S; Shakhtshneider, E V; Stakhneva, E M; Gafarov, V V; Bogatyrev, S N; Voevoda, M I

    2017-04-01

    of the study was to investigate blood levels of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) in men from different population subgroups, their associations with cardiovascular risk factors and with unfavorable 7-years long-term prognosis. The study included three subgroups of men from a population sample of residents of Novosibirsk, 44-73 years old, not receiving lipid-lowering drugs: subgroup of population proper (183 men), subgroup with hypercholesterolemia (46 men), and subgroup with hypocholesterolemia (18 men). Blood level of PCSK9 was determined by ELISA using the test-systems "Human Proprotein Convertase 9/PCSK9 Immunoassay". Study endpoints (myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death) were registered during 7 years after baseline examination of subgroups using the data of the Registers of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. Distribution of PCSK9 protein in subgroups with hyper- and hypocholesterolemia was normal. In the subgroup of population proper it was abnormal with leftward shift. PCSK9 protein concentration in the subgroup with hypercholesterolemia was 1.2 times higher than in the population subgroup. PCSK9 protein level correlated significantly with blood levels of total cholesterol (CH), low density lipoprotein (LDL) CH, and glucose. Only 15% of PCSK9 variability was due to the influence of other factors (R Square=0.155, p<0.001). Factors with significant influence on blood level of PCSK9 protein were levels of high density lipoprotein CH (=0.238, p=0.023), triglycerides (=0.253, p=0.049) and LDL CH (=0.751, p=0.009). Multivariate regression analysis revealed significant independent association of PCSK9 protein levels with cardiovascular death during period of registration (7-years) (p=0.048, OR=1.01). This result indicates that in men increase of blood level of PCSK9 protein by 1ng/ml independently of other parameters increases relative risk of cardiovascular death during following 7 years by 1%.

  6. The roles of flowering, overwinter survival and sea surface temperature in the long-term population dynamics of Zostera marina around the Isles of Scilly, UK.

    PubMed

    Potouroglou, Maria; Kenyon, Emma J; Gall, Angie; Cook, Kevan J; Bull, James C

    2014-06-30

    Interaction between biotic and abiotic drivers of dynamics is an important topic in ecology. Despite numerous short-term studies, there is a paucity of evidence about how environmental structure modifies dynamics in marine systems. We quantified Zostera marina flowering and non-flowering shoot density annually from 1996 to 2012 around the Isles of Scilly, UK, parameterizing a population dynamic model. Flowering is structured in time and space, with temperature and flowering positively associated at some locations only. We found no evidence that flower production contributes to seagrass density but 'patchiness' was positively associated with flowering in the previous year. With evidence of substantial overwinter survival, findings support the hypothesis that local populations are maintained largely through vegetative reproduction but sexual reproduction may contribute to colonisation of vacant habitat. This long-term study (1) tests validity of shorter-term investigations, (2) quantifies interaction between biotic and abiotic factors and (3) promotes seagrass as a model ecosystem. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Age-dependent improvement in median and long-term survival in unselected population-based Nordic registries of patients with synchronous metastatic colorectal cancer.

    PubMed

    Sorbye, H; Cvancarova, M; Qvortrup, C; Pfeiffer, P; Glimelius, B

    2013-09-01

    In metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) trials, median survival has increased from 6 months to above 20 months during the previous decades. Uncertainty exists in how this survival improvement has translated to the general mCRC population. Survival data from patients with synchronous mCRC were collected from the Norwegian (1980-2008), Swedish (1996-2008) and Danish (2001-09) cancer registries. A total of 29 628 patients were identified. From 1980-1985 to 2006-2008, median survival increased from 5 to 10 months for Norwegian patients. Three-year survival increased from 7% to 21% and 5-year survival from 4% to 9%. For patients <60 years, median survival was doubled to 16 months, 3-year survival increased fourfold up to 28% and 5-year survival threefold up to 14%. Similar improvements were seen in Sweden and Denmark. In all countries, the improved outcome was seen especially for younger patients and much less for patients >75 years of age. An increase in median and long-term survival over time was found in unselected population-based registries of patients with synchronous mCRC. The improved outcome in survival was especially seen in younger patients, raising concerns over our ability to adapt available treatment options for elderly patients.

  8. Long-Term Blood Pressure Variability, New-Onset Diabetes Mellitus, and New-Onset Chronic Kidney Disease in the Japanese General Population.

    PubMed

    Yano, Yuichiro; Fujimoto, Shouichi; Kramer, Holly; Sato, Yuji; Konta, Tsuneo; Iseki, Kunitoshi; Iseki, Chiho; Moriyama, Toshiki; Yamagata, Kunihiro; Tsuruya, Kazuhiko; Narita, Ichiei; Kondo, Masahide; Kimura, Kenjiro; Asahi, Koichi; Kurahashi, Issei; Ohashi, Yasuo; Watanabe, Tsuyoshi

    2015-07-01

    Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability among individuals without diabetes mellitus is associated with new-onset chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk, independently of other BP parameters (eg, mean BP, cumulative exposure to BP) and metabolic profile changes during follow-up, remains uncertain. We used data from a nationwide study of 48 587 Japanese adults aged 40 to 74 years (mean age, 61.7 years; 39% men) without diabetes mellitus or CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 or proteinuria by dipstick). BP was measured at baseline and during 3 annual follow-up visits (4 visits). BP variability was defined as standard deviation (SD) and average real variability during the 4 visits. At the year 3 follow-up visit, 6.3% of the population had developed CKD. In multivariable-adjusted logistic regression models, 1 SD increases in SDSBP (per 5 mmHg), SDDBP (per 3 mmHg), average real variabilitySBP (per 6 mmHg), and average real variabilityDBP (per 4 mmHg) were associated with new-onset CKD (odds ratios [ORs] and 95% confidence intervals, 1.15 [1.11-1.20], 1.08 [1.04-1.12], 1.13 [1.09-1.17], 1.06 [1.02-1.10], respectively; all P<0.01) after adjustment for clinical characteristics, and with mean BP from year 0 to year 3. The associations of SDBP and average real variabilityBP with CKD remained significant after additional adjustments for metabolic parameter changes during follow-up (ORs, 1.06-1.15; all P<0.01). Sensitivity analyses by sex, antihypertensive medication use, and the presence of hypertension showed similar conclusions. Among those in the middle-aged and elderly general population without diabetes mellitus, long-term BP variability during 3 years was associated with new-onset CKD risk, independently of mean or cumulative exposure to BP and metabolic profile changes during follow-up. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  9. Towards an epidemiological understanding of the effects of long-term institutional changes on population health: a case study of Canada versus the USA.

    PubMed

    Siddiqi, Arjumand; Hertzman, Clyde

    2007-02-01

    This paper uses a comparative case study of Canada and the USA to argue that, in order to fully understand the associations between population health and the socioeconomic environment we must begin to place importance on the dynamic aspect of these factors--examining them as they evolve over time. In particular, for institutional and policy shifts that often unfold over decades, population health must attend to these big, slow moving processes by adopting a historical perspective to the knowledge base. We compare Canada and the USA on basic health outcomes and a range of determinants of health for which routine data have been collected for all or most of the period between 1950 and the present. During the analysis that follows, we are able to establish that, at the level of society (i) greater economic well being and spending on health care does not yield better health outcomes, that (ii) public provision and income redistribution trump economic success where population health is concerned, and (iii) that the gradual development of public provision represents the buildup of social infrastructure that has long-lasting effects on health status. Our case study shows what can be gleaned from a comparative perspective and a long-term view. The long view allows us to detect the gradual divergence in health status between these two societies and to trace potential institutional causes that would otherwise go unnoticed. The perspective introduced here, and in particular the comparison of Canada and the USA, provides strong support for the use of cross-national comparative work, and a historical perspective on the investigation of societies that successfully support population health.

  10. Work-related mechanical risk factors for long-term sick leave: a prospective study of the general working population in Norway.

    PubMed

    Sterud, Tom

    2014-02-01

    The overall evidence for work-related mechanical exposures as risk factors for long-term sick leave (LTSL) in the general working population is limited. The study cohort was randomly drawn from the general population in Norway, aged 18-69 years (n = 12 255, response at baseline = 60.9%). Eligible respondents were interviewed in 2009 and were registered with an active employee relationship of at least 100 actual working days in 2009 and 2010 (n = 6758). The outcome of interest was medically confirmed LTSL ≥40 working days during 2010. In total, 9.4% (635 individuals) were classified with LTSL during 2010. The risk of LTSL was higher in women, employees with fewer years of education, regular smokers, employees with chronic health complaints and employees with LTSL during 2009. After adjusting for these factors, we estimated that 24.6% of LTSL cases were attributable to work-related mechanical exposure. Mechanical risk factors were neck flexion, hand/arm repetition, standing, working with upper body bent forward and awkward lifting. The odds ratio for highest exposure levels ranged from 1.32 (95% confidence interval 1.04-1.69) for standing to 2.15 (95% confidence interval 1.24-3.73) for awkward lifting. A test for trend was statistically significant for all contributing factors (P ≤ 0.05), except standing. No psychosocial factors acted as major confounders related to any of the mechanical risk factors. This study underlines the importance of work-related mechanical exposures as risk factors for LTSL in the general working population. An exposure-response relationship was indicated for 5 of the 10 factors evaluated.

  11. Long-term trends in survival of a declining population: the case of the little owl (Athene noctua) in the Netherlands.

    PubMed

    Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Schekkerman, Hans; van der Jeugd, Henk P; Boele, Arjan; van Harxen, Ronald; Fuchs, Piet; Stroeken, Pascal; van Noordwijk, Arie J

    2011-06-01

    The little owl (Athene noctua) has declined significantly in many parts of Europe, including the Netherlands. To understand the demographic mechanisms underlying their decline, we analysed all available Dutch little owl ringing data. The data set spanned 35 years, and included more than 24,000 ringed owls, allowing detailed estimation of survival rates through multi-state capture-recapture modelling taking dispersal into account. We investigated geographical and temporal variation in age-specific survival rates and linked annual survival estimates to population growth rate in corresponding years, as well as to environmental covariates. The best model for estimating survival assumed time effects on both juvenile and adult survival rates, with average annual survival estimated at 0.258 (SE = 0.047) and 0.753 (SE = 0.019), respectively. Juvenile survival rates decreased with time whereas adult survival rates fluctuated regularly among years, low survival occurring about every 4 years. Years when the population declined were associated with low juvenile survival. More than 60% of the variation in juvenile survival was explained by the increase in road traffic intensity or in average temperature in spring, but these correlations rather reflect a gradual decrease in juvenile survival coinciding with long-term global change than direct causal effects. Surprisingly, vole dynamics did not explain the cyclic dynamics of adult survival rate. Instead, dry and cold years led to low adult survival rates. Low juvenile survival rates, that limit recruitment of first-year breeders, and the regular occurrence of years with poor adult survival, were the most important determinants of the population decline of the little owl.

  12. The long-term effect of a population-based life-style intervention on smoking and alcohol consumption. The Inter99 Study--a randomized controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Baumann, Sophie; Toft, Ulla; Aadahl, Mette; Jørgensen, Torben; Pisinger, Charlotta

    2015-11-01

    To examine whether improvements in smoking and alcohol consumption throughout the 5-year course of a population-based multi-factorial life-style intervention were sustained 5 years after its discontinuation. Population-based randomized controlled trial. Suburbs of Copenhagen, Denmark. A total of 9415 people aged 30-60 years were randomized to an intervention group (n = 6091) and an assessment-only control group (n = 3324). All participants in the intervention group received screening, risk assessment and individual life-style counselling; participants at high risk of ischaemic heart disease-according to pre-specified criteria-were also offered group-based counselling. Self-reported point abstinence from smoking as well as changes in the average alcohol consumption per week and binge drinking in the past week from baseline to 10-year follow-up were investigated using random-effects modelling. At 10-year follow up, people in the intervention group reported a higher smoking abstinence rate [odds ratio (OR) = 1.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.02-3.33, P = 0.043] and a greater reduction in binge drinking (net change = -0.08 days with binge drinking in the last week, 95% CI = -0.16 to -0.01, P = 0.028) than in the control group. There were no detectable long-term intervention effects on the average alcohol consumption per week. A population-based multi-factorial life-style intervention of 5 years' duration in Denmark had sustained beneficial effects on smoking abstinence and binge drinking 5 years after its discontinuation. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  13. Long-term radiation-related health effects in a unique human population: lessons learned from the atomic bomb survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Douple, Evan B; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M; Preston, Dale L; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E

    2011-03-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200,000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor-participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study.

  14. Long-term Radiation-Related Health Effects in a Unique Human Population: Lessons Learned from the Atomic Bomb Survivors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

    PubMed Central

    Douple, Evan B.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Cullings, Harry M.; Preston, Dale L.; Kodama, Kazunori; Shimizu, Yukiko; Fujiwara, Saeko; Shore, Roy E.

    2014-01-01

    For 63 years scientists in the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission and its successor, the Radiation Effects Research Foundation, have been assessing the long-term health effects in the survivors of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and in their children. The identification and follow-up of a large population (approximately a total of 200 000, of whom more than 40% are alive today) that includes a broad range of ages and radiation exposure doses, and healthy representatives of both sexes; establishment of well-defined cohorts whose members have been studied longitudinally, including some with biennial health examinations and a high survivor participation rate; and careful reconstructions of individual radiation doses have resulted in reliable excess relative risk estimates for radiation-related health effects, including cancer and noncancer effects in humans, for the benefit of the survivors and for all humankind. This article reviews those risk estimates and summarizes what has been learned from this historic and unique study. PMID:21402804

  15. Long-term use of secondary prevention medications for heart failure in Western Australia: a protocol for a population-based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Qin, Xiwen; Teng, Tiew-Hwa Katherine; Hung, Joseph; Briffa, Tom

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Heart failure (HF) is a chronic, debilitating and progressive disease associated with high morbidity and mortality. Evidence-based medications (EBMs) are the cornerstone of management of patients with HF. In Australia, these EBMs are subsidised by the Commonwealth Government under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. Suboptimal dispensing and non-adherence to these EBMs have been observed in patients with HF. Our study will investigate trends in dispensing patterns, as well as adherence and persistence of EBMs for HF. We will also identify factors influencing these patterns and their impact on long-term clinical outcomes. Methods and analysis This whole population-based cohort study will use longitudinal data for people aged 65–84 years who were hospitalised for HF in Western Australia between 2003 and 2008. Linked state-wide and national data will provide patient-level information on medication dispensing, medical visits, hospitalisations and death. Drug dispensing trends will be described, drug adherence and persistence estimated and the association with all-cause/cardiovascular death and hospitalisations reported. Ethics and dissemination This project has received approvals from the Western Australian Department of Health Human Research Ethics Committee and the Western Australian Aboriginal Health Ethics Committee. Results will be published in relevant cardiology journals and presented at national and international conferences. PMID:27803111

  16. Long-term depression and suicidal ideation outcomes subsequent to emancipation from foster care: pathways to psychiatric risk in the Métis population.

    PubMed

    Kaspar, Violet

    2014-02-28

    Major depressive episode (MDE) and suicidal ideation (SI) associated with history of foster care placement (HxFCP), and mediating effects of psychosocial and socioeconomic factors through which placement may confer psychiatric risks in the years subsequent to emancipation were examined in a national sample of 7534 Métis. More than one third of emancipated respondents reported past year MDE, a prevalence rate nearly 50% higher than the rate of MDE among Métis respondents without a history of placement in foster care. The 25% lifetime prevalence rate of SI in the emancipated group was more than twice the rate observed in the non-fostered group. Direct effects of HxFCP on post placement MDE and SI were significant in multivariate logistic regression analyses, even when effects of childhood predispositional risk factors were controlled statistically. Emancipated individuals were unduly affected by psychosocial and socioeconomic disadvantages signifying pathways that linked foster care placement history and psychiatric status. Main mediators of the effects demonstrated using effect decomposition procedures were self-esteem, income, and community adversity. The findings warrant consideration of foster care history in clarifying the complex etiologies of suicidal ideation and major depressive episode in the Métis population and risk factors ensuing in the intervening years as integral to the process linking placement to long-term psychiatric outcomes.

  17. Long-Term Therapy With Wu-Ling-San, a Popular Antilithic Chinese Herbal Formula, Did Not Prevent Subsequent Stone Surgery: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, San-Yuan; Chen, Huey-Yi; Tsai, Kao-Sung; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Muo, Chih-Hsin; Sung, Fung-Chang; Chen, Yung-Hsiang; Chen, Wen-Chi

    2016-01-01

    Traditional Chinese herbal medicine (CHM), which is widely used to treat pain and urolithiasis, is a promising therapy for urinary stone prevention. This study investigated the clinical efficacy of a popular CHM, Wu-Ling-San (WLS), in Taiwan for the prophylaxis of recurrent nephrolithiasis as assessed by surgical stone treatment via a nationwide population-based cohort study. The National Health Insurance Research Database, 2000-2010, which included one million patient records. All patients diagnosed with stone disease at the beginning of the study. The matched controls (4-fold the number of WLS patients) were stone patients who did not take WLS. Data analysis included the stone surgeries following the first treatment. We enrolled 11 900 patients with stone disease, and the incidence of stone patients in this database was 1.19%. The prevalence of comorbidities such as benign prostate hyperplasia, chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, and urinary tract infection, but not hypertension, was significantly higher in WLS users. Several patients in both groups were prescribed potassium citrate. The stone treatment rate was significantly higher in WLS users (17.85%) than in the non-WLS users (14.47%). WLS users with an associated comorbidity had a higher treatment rate than the non-WLS users: 21.05% versus 16.70%, respectively. The surgery rate for upper urinary tract stones was higher in WLS users than in the non-WLS users (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.52; P < .05). The stone treatment rate (52.79%) was significantly higher in patients who used a very high amount of WLS (adjusted hazard ratio, 3.02; 95% confidence interval, 2.30-3.98). Stone patients using a high amount of WLS use had a high stone surgical rate. Long-term therapy with WLS did not have a preventive effect on stone surgical treatment. Long-term potassium citrate therapy as a preventive measure appeared to be underutilized in this study. © The Author(s) 2016.

  18. Long-term estradiol-17β administration reduces population of neurons in the sympathetic chain ganglia supplying the ovary in adult gilts.

    PubMed

    Koszykowska, Marlena; Całka, Jarosław; Gańko, Marta; Jana, Barbara

    2011-08-01

    the number of perikarya expressing ERs subtype α and β, and (7) decreased the total number of the intraganglionic nerve fibers containing DβH and/or NPY. These results show that long-term E(2) treatment of adult gilts down-regulates the population of both noradrenergic and ERs expressing the SChG ovary supplying neurons. Our findings suggest also that elevated E(2) levels that occur during pathological states may regulate gonadal function(s) by affecting ovary supplying neurons.

  19. Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain.

    PubMed

    Fidler, Miranda M; Reulen, Raoul C; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L; Hawkins, Michael M

    2017-03-07

    Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 suggests

  20. Population-Based Long-Term Cardiac-Specific Mortality Among 34 489 Five-Year Survivors of Childhood Cancer in Great Britain

    PubMed Central

    Fidler, Miranda M.; Reulen, Raoul C.; Henson, Katherine; Kelly, Julie; Cutter, David; Levitt, Gill A.; Frobisher, Clare; Winter, David L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Increased risks of cardiac morbidity and mortality among childhood cancer survivors have been described previously. However, little is known about the very long-term risks of cardiac mortality and whether the risk has decreased among those more recently diagnosed. We investigated the risk of long-term cardiac mortality among survivors within the recently extended British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: The British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study is a population-based cohort of 34 489 five-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed from 1940 to 2006 and followed up until February 28, 2014, and is the largest cohort to date to assess late cardiac mortality. Standardized mortality ratios and absolute excess risks were used to quantify cardiac mortality excess risk. Multivariable Poisson regression models were used to evaluate the simultaneous effect of risk factors. Likelihood ratio tests were used to test for heterogeneity and trends. Results: Overall, 181 cardiac deaths were observed, which was 3.4 times that expected. Survivors were 2.5 times and 5.9 times more at risk of ischemic heart disease and cardiomyopathy/heart failure death, respectively, than expected. Among those >60 years of age, subsequent primary neoplasms, cardiac disease, and other circulatory conditions accounted for 31%, 22%, and 15% of all excess deaths, respectively, providing clear focus for preventive interventions. The risk of both overall cardiac and cardiomyopathy/heart failure mortality was greatest among those diagnosed from 1980 to 1989. Specifically, for cardiomyopathy/heart failure deaths, survivors diagnosed from 1980 to 1989 had 28.9 times the excess number of deaths observed for survivors diagnosed either before 1970 or from 1990 on. Conclusions: Excess cardiac mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer remains increased beyond 50 years of age and has clear messages in terms of prevention strategies. However, the fact that the risk was greatest in

  1. The critical domain size of stochastic population models.

    PubMed

    Reimer, Jody R; Bonsall, Michael B; Maini, Philip K

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the critical domain size necessary for a population to persist is an important question in ecology. Both demographic and environmental stochasticity impact a population's ability to persist. Here we explore ways of including this variability. We study populations with distinct dispersal and sedentary stages, which have traditionally been modelled using a deterministic integrodifference equation (IDE) framework. Individual-based models (IBMs) are the most intuitive stochastic analogues to IDEs but yield few analytic insights. We explore two alternate approaches; one is a scaling up to the population level using the Central Limit Theorem, and the other a variation on both Galton-Watson branching processes and branching processes in random environments. These branching process models closely approximate the IBM and yield insight into the factors determining the critical domain size for a given population subject to stochasticity.

  2. Age-specific risks, severity, time course, and outcome of bleeding on long-term antiplatelet treatment after vascular events: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Li, Linxin; Geraghty, Olivia C; Mehta, Ziyah; Rothwell, Peter M

    2017-07-29

    Lifelong antiplatelet treatment is recommended after ischaemic vascular events, on the basis of trials done mainly in patients younger than 75 years. Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a serious complication, but had low case fatality in trials of aspirin and is not generally thought to cause long-term disability. Consequently, although co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) reduces upper gastrointestinal bleeds by 70-90%, uptake is low and guidelines are conflicting. We aimed to assess the risk, time course, and outcomes of bleeding on antiplatelet treatment for secondary prevention in patients of all ages. We did a prospective population-based cohort study in patients with a first transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, or myocardial infarction treated with antiplatelet drugs (mainly aspirin based, without routine PPI use) after the event in the Oxford Vascular Study from 2002 to 2012, with follow-up until 2013. We determined type, severity, outcome (disability or death), and time course of bleeding requiring medical attention by face-to-face follow-up for 10 years. We estimated age-specific numbers needed to treat (NNT) to prevent upper gastrointestinal bleeding with routine PPI co-prescription on the basis of Kaplan-Meier risk estimates and relative risk reduction estimates from previous trials. 3166 patients (1582 [50%] aged ≥75 years) had 405 first bleeding events (n=218 gastrointestinal, n=45 intracranial, and n=142 other) during 13 509 patient-years of follow-up. Of the 314 patients (78%) with bleeds admitted to hospital, 117 (37%) were missed by administrative coding. Risk of non-major bleeding was unrelated to age, but major bleeding increased steeply with age (≥75 years hazard ratio [HR] 3·10, 95% CI 2·27-4·24; p<0·0001), particularly for fatal bleeds (5·53, 2·65-11·54; p<0·0001), and was sustained during long-term follow-up. The same was true of major upper gastrointestinal bleeds (≥75 years HR 4·13, 2·60-6·57; p<0

  3. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  4. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    PubMed Central

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  5. Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions

    PubMed Central

    Billari, F C; Graziani, R; Melilli, E

    2012-01-01

    The paper develops and applies an expert-based stochastic population forecasting method, which can also be used to obtain a probabilistic version of scenario-based official forecasts. The full probability distribution of population forecasts is specified by starting from expert opinions on the future development of demographic components. Expert opinions are elicited as conditional on the realization of scenarios, in a two-step (or multiple-step) fashion. The method is applied to develop a stochastic forecast for the Italian population, starting from official scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office. PMID:22879704

  6. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls

    PubMed Central

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  7. Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long-term demographic study on tawny owls.

    PubMed

    Millon, Alexandre; Petty, Steve J; Little, Brian; Gimenez, Olivier; Cornulier, Thomas; Lambin, Xavier

    2014-06-01

    Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent-scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole-eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27-year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high- to a low-amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid-1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First-year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other

  8. Long-term testing

    SciTech Connect

    Ferber, M.; Graves, G.A. Jr.

    1994-12-31

    Land-based gas turbines are significantly different from automotive gas turbines in that they are designed to operate for 50,000 h or greater (compared to 5,000--10,000 h). The primary goal of this research is to determine the long-term survivability of ceramic materials for industrial gas turbine applications. Research activities in this program focus on the evaluation of the static tensile creep and stress rupture (SR) behavior of three commercially available structural ceramics which have been identified by the gas turbine manufacturers as leading candidates for use in industrial gas turbines. For each material investigated, a minimum of three temperatures and four stresses will be used to establish the stress and temperature sensitivities of the creep and SR behavior. Because existing data for many candidate structural ceramics are limited to testing times less than 2,000 h, this program will focus on extending these data to times on the order of 10,000 h, which represents the lower limit of operating time anticipated for ceramic blades and vanes in gas turbine engines. A secondary goal of the program will be to investigate the possibility of enhancing life prediction estimates by combining interrupted tensile SR tests and tensile dynamic fatigue tests in which tensile strength is measured as a function of stressing rate. The third goal of this program will be to investigate the effects of water vapor upon the SR behavior of the three structural ceramics chosen for the static tensile studies by measuring the flexural strength as a function of stressing rate at three temperatures.

  9. Mycorrhizal diversity, seed germination and long-term changes in population size across nine populations of the terrestrial orchid Neottia ovata.

    PubMed

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Waud, Michael; Merckx, Vincent S F T; Lievens, Bart; Brys, Rein

    2015-07-01

    In plant species that rely on mycorrhizal symbioses for germination and seedling establishment, seedling recruitment and temporal changes in abundance can be expected to depend on fungal community composition and local environmental conditions. However, disentangling the precise factors that determine recruitment success in species that critically rely on mycorrhizal fungi represents a major challenge. In this study, we used seed germination experiments, 454 amplicon pyrosequencing and assessment of soil conditions to investigate the factors driving changes in local abundance in 28 populations of the orchid Neottia ovata. Comparison of population sizes measured in 2003 and 2013 showed that nearly 60% of the studied populations had declined in size (average growth rate across all populations: -0.01). Investigation of the mycorrhizal fungi in both the roots and soil revealed a total of 68 species of putatively mycorrhizal fungi, 21 of which occurred exclusively in roots, 25 that occurred solely in soil and 22 that were observed in both the soil and roots. Seed germination was limited and significantly and positively related to soil moisture content and soil pH, but not to fungal community composition. Large populations or populations with high population growth rates showed significantly higher germination than small populations or populations declining in size, but no significant relationships were found between population size or growth and mycorrhizal diversity. Overall, these results indicate that temporal changes in abundance were related to the ability of seeds to germinate, but at the same time they provided limited evidence that variation in fungal communities played an important role in determining population dynamics.

  10. Long term impacts of combined sewer overflow remediation on water quality and population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus, the main urban West Nile virus vector in Atlanta, GA.

    PubMed

    Lund, Andrea; McMillan, Joseph; Kelly, Rosmarie; Jabbarzadeh, Shirin; Mead, Daniel G; Burkot, Thomas R; Kitron, Uriel; Vazquez-Prokopec, Gonzalo M

    2014-02-01

    Combined sewers are a significant source of urban water pollution due to periodic discharges into natural streams. Such events (called combined sewer overflows, or CSOs) contribute to the impairment of natural waterways and are associated with increased mosquito productivity and elevated risk of West Nile virus transmission. We investigated the impact of CSOs on water quality and immature mosquito productivity in the city of Atlanta, Georgia, one year before and four years after CSO facility remediation. Water quality (ammonia, phosphate, nitrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations), immature mosquitoes (larvae and pupae), water temperature and rainfall were quantified biweekly between June-October at two urban creeks during 2008-2012. A before-after control-intervention design tested the impact of remediation on mosquito productivity and water quality, whereas generalized linear mixed-effect models quantified the factors explaining the long term impacts of remediation on mosquito productivity. Ammonia and phosphate concentrations and late immature (fourth-instar and pupae) mosquito populations were significantly higher in CSO than in non-CSO creeks, while dissolved oxygen concentrations were lower. Remediation significantly improved water quality estimates (particularly ammonia and dissolved oxygen) and reduced the number of overflows, mosquito productivity and the overall contribution of CSO-affected streams as sources of vectors of West Nile virus. The quality of water in CSOs provided a suitable habitat for immature mosquitoes. Re