Health impact of catch-up growth in low-birth weight infants: systematic review, evidence appraisal, and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Martin, Anne; Connelly, Andrew; Bland, Ruth M; Reilly, John J

2017-01-01

This study aimed to systematically review and appraise evidence on the short-term (e.g. morbidity, mortality) and long-term (obesity and non-communicable diseases, NCDs) health consequences of catch-up growth (vs. no catch-up growth) in individuals with a history of low birth weight (LBW).We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Global Health, CINAHL plus, Cochrane Library, ProQuest Dissertations and Thesis and reference lists. Study quality was assessed using the risk of bias assessment tool from the Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, and the evidence base was assessed using the GRADE tool. Eight studies in seven cohorts (two from high-income countries, five from low-middle-income countries) met the inclusion criteria for short-term (mean age: 13.4 months) and/or longer-term (mean age: 11.1 years) health outcomes of catch-up growth, which had occurred by 24 or 59 months. Of five studies on short-term health outcomes, three found positive associations between weight catch-up growth and body mass and/or glucose metabolism; one suggested reduced risk of hospitalisation and mortality with catch-up growth. Three studies on longer-term health outcomes found catch-up growth were associated with higher body mass, BMI or cholesterol. GRADE assessment suggested that evidence quantity and quality were low. Catch-up growth following LBW may have benefits for the individual with LBW in the short term, and may have adverse population health impacts in the long-term, but the evidence is limited. Future cohort studies could address the question of the consequences of catch-up growth following LBW more convincingly, with a view to informing future prevention of obesity and NCDs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Future self-continuity: how conceptions of the future self transform intertemporal choice

PubMed Central

Hershfield, Hal E.

2013-01-01

With life expectancy dramatically increasing throughout much of the world, people have to make choices with a longer future in mind than they ever had to before. Yet, many indicators suggest that undersaving for the long term often occurs: in America, for instance, many individuals will not be able to maintain their preretirement standard of living in retirement. Previous research has tried to understand problems with intertemporal choice by focusing on the ways in which people treat present and future rewards. In this paper, the author reviews a burgeoning body of theoretical and empirical work that takes a different viewpoint, one that focuses on how perceptions of the self over time can dramatically affect decision making. Specifically, when the future self shares similarities with the present self, when it is viewed in vivid and realistic terms, and when it is seen in a positive light, people are more willing to make choices today that may benefit them at some point in the years to come. PMID:22023566

What Do Adults Do All Day?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Seeley, Claire

2016-01-01

Not only is there a shortage of people pursuing STEM-related careers today, but few people are looking to acquire STEM jobs in the future. This places a huge responsibility on primary educators, not simply to foster a love of science from an early age, but also to encourage longer-term aspirations among children. Researchers have discovered that a…

Enlargement Project: Insight into ICT Professional Skills and Jobs in the Candidate Countries. Enlargement Futures Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gourova, Elissaveta

A study examined information and communication technologies (ICT) job trends and the prospects for preservation and supply of high skilled professionals in the medium and longer term in candidate countries (CCs), for admission into the European Union, focusing on Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, and Poland. Rapidly changing technology and growth of…

The use and misuse of photosynthesis in the quest for novel methods to harness solar energy to make fuel.

PubMed

Cogdell, Richard J; Gardiner, Alastair T; Molina, Pedro I; Cronin, Leroy

2013-08-13

This short review will illustrate that photosynthesis can provide a real contribution towards our sustain- able, green fuel requirements in the future. However, it is argued that the focus on biofuels is misplaced and that, in the longer term, investment in artificial photosynthesis will prove much more beneficial.

FERMILAB ACCELERATOR R&D PROGRAM TOWARDS INTENSITY FRONTIER ACCELERATORS : STATUS AND PROGRESS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shiltsev, Vladimir

2016-11-15

The 2014 P5 report indicated the accelerator-based neutrino and rare decay physics research as a centrepiece of the US domestic HEP program at Fermilab. Operation, upgrade and development of the accelerators for the near- term and longer-term particle physics program at the Intensity Frontier face formidable challenges. Here we discuss key elements of the accelerator physics and technology R&D program toward future multi-MW proton accelerators and present its status and progress. INTENSITY FRONTIER ACCELERATORS

Pay modernisation and healthcare governance.

PubMed

Benton, David C

Policies interact and have direct and indirect consequences resulting in both short-term and longer-term effects on the working lives of professionals, the care they offer and the education needed by future generations of staff. This article explores how pay modernisation could result in benefits and risks for corporate, clinical and staff governance. It is argued that if pay modernisation as a major enabler of service redesign is to succeed then far greater understanding of how various policies interact and their potential consequences is required.

Evaluating Long-term Outcomes of NHS Stop Smoking Services (ELONS): a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Dobbie, Fiona; Hiscock, Rosemary; Leonardi-Bee, Jo; Murray, Susan; Shahab, Lion; Aveyard, Paul; Coleman, Tim; McEwen, Andy; McRobbie, Hayden; Purves, Richard; Bauld, Linda

2015-11-01

NHS Stop Smoking Services (SSSs) provide free at the point of use treatment for smokers who would like to stop. Since their inception in 1999 they have evolved to offer a variety of support options. Given the changes that have happened in the provision of services and the ongoing need for evidence on effectiveness, the Evaluating Long-term Outcomes for NHS Stop Smoking Services (ELONS) study was commissioned. The main aim of the study was to explore the factors that determine longer-term abstinence from smoking following intervention by SSSs. There were also a number of additional objectives. The ELONS study was an observational study with two main stages: secondary analysis of routine data collected by SSSs and a prospective cohort study of service clients. The prospective study had additional elements on client satisfaction, well-being and longer-term nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) use. The setting for the study was SSSs in England. For the secondary analysis, routine data from 49 services were obtained. For the prospective study and its added elements, nine services were involved. The target population was clients of these services. There were 202,804 cases included in secondary analysis and 3075 in the prospective study. A combination of behavioural support and stop smoking medication delivered by SSS practitioners. Abstinence from smoking at 4 and 52 weeks after setting a quit date, validated by a carbon monoxide (CO) breath test. Just over 4 in 10 smokers (41%) recruited to the prospective study were biochemically validated as abstinent from smoking at 4 weeks (which was broadly comparable with findings from the secondary analysis of routine service data, where self-reported 4-week quit rates were 48%, falling to 34% when biochemical validation had occurred). At the 1-year follow-up, 8% of prospective study clients were CO validated as abstinent from smoking. Clients who received specialist one-to-one behavioural support were twice as likely to have remained abstinent than those who were seen by a general practitioner (GP) practice and pharmacy providers [odds ratio (OR) 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 4.6]. Clients who received group behavioural support (either closed or rolling groups) were three times more likely to stop smoking than those who were seen by a GP practice or pharmacy providers (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.7 to 6.7). Satisfaction with services was high and well-being at baseline was found to be a predictor of abstinence from smoking at longer-term follow-up. Continued use of NRT at 1 year was rare, but no evidence of harm from longer-term use was identified from the data collected. Stop Smoking Services in England are effective in helping smokers to move away from tobacco use. Using the 52-week CO-validated quit rate of 8% found in this study, we estimate that in the year 2012-13 the services supported 36,249 clients to become non-smokers for the remainder of their lives. This is a substantial figure and provides one indicator of the ongoing value of the treatment that the services provide. The study raises a number of issues for future research including (1) examining the role of electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) in smoking cessation for service clients [this study did not look at e-cigarette use (except briefly in the longer-term NRT study) but this is a priority for future studies]; (2) more detailed comparisons of rolling groups with other forms of behavioural support; (3) further exploration of the role of practitioner knowledge, skills and use of effective behaviour change techniques in supporting service clients to stop smoking; (4) surveillance of the impact of structural and funding changes on the future development and sustainability of SSSs; and (5) more detailed analysis of well-being over time between those who successfully stop smoking and those who relapse. Further research on longer-term use of non-combustible nicotine products that measures a wider array of biomarkers of smoking-related harm such as lung function tests or carcinogen metabolites. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme. The UK Centre for Tobacco and Alcohol Studies provided funding for the longer-term NRT study.

Using foresight methods to anticipate future threats: the case of disease management.

PubMed

Ma, Sai; Seid, Michael

2006-01-01

We describe a unique foresight framework for health care managers to use in longer-term planning. This framework uses scenario-building to envision plausible alternate futures of the U.S. health care system and links those broad futures to business-model-specific "load-bearing" assumptions. Because the framework we describe simultaneously addresses very broad and very specific issues, it can be easily applied to a broad range of health care issues by using the broad framework and business-specific assumptions for the particular case at hand. We illustrate this method using the case of disease management, pointing out that although the industry continues to grow rapidly, its future also contains great uncertainties.

Pleasure to play, arousal to stay: the effect of player emotions on digital game preferences and playing time.

PubMed

Poels, Karolien; van den Hoogen, Wouter; Ijsselsteijn, Wijnand; de Kort, Yvonne

2012-01-01

This study investigated how player emotions during game-play, measured through self-report and physiological recordings, predict playing time and game preferences. We distinguished between short-term (immediately after game-play) and long-term (after 3 weeks) playing time and game preferences. While pleasure was most predictive for short-term playing time and game preferences, arousal, particularly for game preferences, was most predictive on the longer term. This result was found through both self-report and physiological emotion measures. This study initiates theorizing about digital gaming as a hedonic consumer product and sketches future research endeavors of this topic.

Anoxia stimulates microbially catalyzed metal release from Animas River sediments.

PubMed

Saup, Casey M; Williams, Kenneth H; Rodríguez-Freire, Lucía; Cerrato, José M; Johnston, Michael D; Wilkins, Michael J

2017-04-19

The Gold King Mine spill in August 2015 released 11 million liters of metal-rich mine waste to the Animas River watershed, an area that has been previously exposed to historical mining activity spanning more than a century. Although adsorption onto fluvial sediments was responsible for rapid immobilization of a significant fraction of the spill-associated metals, patterns of longer-term mobility are poorly constrained. Metals associated with river sediments collected downstream of the Gold King Mine in August 2015 exhibited distinct presence and abundance patterns linked to location and mineralogy. Simulating riverbed burial and development of anoxic conditions, sediment microcosm experiments amended with Animas River dissolved organic carbon revealed the release of specific metal pools coupled to microbial Fe- and SO 4 2- -reduction. Results suggest that future sedimentation and burial of riverbed materials may drive longer-term changes in patterns of metal remobilization linked to anaerobic microbial metabolism, potentially driving decreases in downstream water quality. Such patterns emphasize the need for long-term water monitoring efforts in metal-impacted watersheds.

2015 Summer Series - Jason Crusan - Pioneering Space - Not Your Great-Great-Grandparent's Manifest Destiny

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-07-14

Exploration is an innate characteristic of the human species. By launching into the unknown, NASA drives our expeditions beyond Earth and embarks in the long-term efforts of 'pioneering space' for this and future generations. NASA will develop the ability for humans to go farther and stay longer in space with an ever-decreasing need to be reliant on Earth. Jason Crusan, Director of Advanced Exploration Systems Division at NASA Headquarters, describes what the future of pioneering space will look like in the galactic Wild West.

Clinical evaluation of the Trauma Outcome Profile (TOP) in the longer-term follow-up of polytrauma patients.

PubMed

Attenberger, Corinna; Amsler, Felix; Gross, Thomas

2012-09-01

No sufficiently validated disease-specific instrument is available to assess patient outcome after polytrauma. The aim of this investigation was to test the recently published Trauma Outcome Profile (TOP) in the longer-term outcome of multiply injured patients. Single centre validation study on the TOP in comparison with objective and subjective measures of patient, injury or treatment characteristics and longer-term outcome (e.g. medical outcomes study Short Form-36, SF-36; Nottingham Health Profile, NHP; working capacity), at least 2 years following trauma in 117 survivors of polytrauma (injury severity score, ISS>16), using comparative analysis and correlation testing of prospectively collected data. Patients' mean weighted self-rating with regard to the 10 single TOP dimensions of Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL, 0-100) ranged from lowest values for mental functioning (52.6+33.5) to highest values for daily activities (79.0+27.5). The rate of persons who indicated an abnormal level of function or pain increased significantly from pre-injury status (2% and 5%, resp.) to 46% for both values at longer-term follow-up (p<0.001). Observed associations between single dimensions or TOP component summary scores with the corresponding values from general HRQol instruments, such as the SF-36, resulted in R (Pearson) up to 0.85. Survivors of polytrauma who presented with a reduced working capacity (RWC) at longer-term follow-up in all TOP dimensions included a significantly higher rate of patients conspicuous for a relevantly reduced outcome compared with those with a non reduced working capacity (NRWC) (posttraumatic stress disease, PTSD: p<0.05; all other dimensions: p<0.001). Patients with a RWC were characterised by an almost fivefold probability of reduced outcome with regard to the TOP dimensions 'social interaction' or 'satisfaction' (odds ratio, OR 12.4 (95% CI 5.1-30.1) and 12.5 (4.0-39.0), resp.). This first clinical and methodological evaluation in a well defined cohort of polytrauma patients found the TOP to be a reliable and well discriminating score covering both relevant general and trauma-specific aspects of longer-term outcome. Despite these promising primary results, until further validation, the TOP should be used together with already accepted HRQoL measures to allow adequate international comparison of data in the future. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Launching Kindergarten Math Clubs: The Implementation of High 5s in New York City

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jacob, Robin; Erickison, Anna; Mattera, Shira K.

2018-01-01

Early math has been shown to predict not only longer-term math achievement, but also future reading achievement, high school completion, and college attendance. Yet effects from early math programs often fade out as children move into more varied instructional contexts in elementary school. This fade-out suggests the need for an alignment of math…

Evaluating land-use change scenarios for the Puget Sound Basin, Washington, within the ecosystem recovery target model-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Villarreal, Miguel; Labiosa, Bill; Aiello, Danielle

2017-05-23

The Puget Sound Basin, Washington, has experienced rapid urban growth in recent decades, with varying impacts to local ecosystems and natural resources. To plan for future growth, land managers often use scenarios to assess how the pattern and volume of growth may affect natural resources. Using three different land-management scenarios for the years 2000–2060, we assessed various spatial patterns of urban growth relative to maps depicting a model-based characterization of the ecological integrity and recent development pressure of individual land parcels. The three scenarios depict future trajectories of land-use change under alternative management strategies—status quo, managed growth, and unconstrained growth. The resulting analysis offers a preliminary assessment of how future growth patterns in the Puget Sound Basin may impact land targeted for conservation and how short-term metrics of land-development pressure compare to longer term growth projections.

Understanding causality and uncertainty in volcanic observations: An example of forecasting eruptive activity on Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, T. E.; Aspinall, W. P.; Odbert, H. M.; Wadge, G.; Sparks, R. S. J.

2017-07-01

Following a cessation in eruptive activity it is important to understand how a volcano will behave in the future and when it may next erupt. Such an assessment can be based on the volcano's long-term pattern of behaviour and insights into its current state via monitoring observations. We present a Bayesian network that integrates these two strands of evidence to forecast future eruptive scenarios using expert elicitation. The Bayesian approach provides a framework to quantify the magmatic causes in terms of volcanic effects (i.e., eruption and unrest). In October 2013, an expert elicitation was performed to populate a Bayesian network designed to help forecast future eruptive (in-)activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano. The Bayesian network was devised to assess the state of the shallow magmatic system, as a means to forecast the future eruptive activity in the context of the long-term behaviour at similar dome-building volcanoes. The findings highlight coherence amongst experts when interpreting the current behaviour of the volcano, but reveal considerable ambiguity when relating this to longer patterns of volcanism at dome-building volcanoes, as a class. By asking questions in terms of magmatic causes, the Bayesian approach highlights the importance of using short-term unrest indicators from monitoring data as evidence in long-term forecasts at volcanoes. Furthermore, it highlights potential biases in the judgements of volcanologists and identifies sources of uncertainty in terms of magmatic causes rather than scenario-based outcomes.

Extrapolating Survival from Randomized Trials Using External Data: A Review of Methods

PubMed Central

Jackson, Christopher; Stevens, John; Ren, Shijie; Latimer, Nick; Bojke, Laura; Manca, Andrea; Sharples, Linda

2016-01-01

This article describes methods used to estimate parameters governing long-term survival, or times to other events, for health economic models. Specifically, the focus is on methods that combine shorter-term individual-level survival data from randomized trials with longer-term external data, thus using the longer-term data to aid extrapolation of the short-term data. This requires assumptions about how trends in survival for each treatment arm will continue after the follow-up period of the trial. Furthermore, using external data requires assumptions about how survival differs between the populations represented by the trial and external data. Study reports from a national health technology assessment program in the United Kingdom were searched, and the findings were combined with “pearl-growing” searches of the academic literature. We categorized the methods that have been used according to the assumptions they made about how the hazards of death vary between the external and internal data and through time, and we discuss the appropriateness of the assumptions in different circumstances. Modeling choices, parameter estimation, and characterization of uncertainty are discussed, and some suggestions for future research priorities in this area are given. PMID:27005519

A Critical Review of Available Retrievable Inferior Vena Cava Filters and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Montgomery, Jennifer P.; Kaufman, John A.

2016-01-01

Inferior vena cava filters have been placed in patients for decades for protection against pulmonary embolism. The widespread use of filters has dramatically increased owing at least in part to the approval of retrievable vena cava filters. Retrievable filters have the potential to protect against pulmonary embolism and then be retrieved once no longer needed to avoid potential long-term complications. There are several retrievable vena cava filters available for use. This article discusses the different filter designs as well as the published data on these available filters. When selecting a filter for use, it is important to consider the potential short-term complications and the filters' window for retrieval. Understanding potential long-term complications is also critical, as these devices are approved for permanent placement and many filters are not retrieved. Finally, this article will address research into new designs that may be the future of vena cava filtration. PMID:27247475

A Critical Review of Available Retrievable Inferior Vena Cava Filters and Future Directions.

PubMed

Montgomery, Jennifer P; Kaufman, John A

2016-06-01

Inferior vena cava filters have been placed in patients for decades for protection against pulmonary embolism. The widespread use of filters has dramatically increased owing at least in part to the approval of retrievable vena cava filters. Retrievable filters have the potential to protect against pulmonary embolism and then be retrieved once no longer needed to avoid potential long-term complications. There are several retrievable vena cava filters available for use. This article discusses the different filter designs as well as the published data on these available filters. When selecting a filter for use, it is important to consider the potential short-term complications and the filters' window for retrieval. Understanding potential long-term complications is also critical, as these devices are approved for permanent placement and many filters are not retrieved. Finally, this article will address research into new designs that may be the future of vena cava filtration.

Empirical observations on longer-term use of incentives for weight loss.

PubMed

John, Leslie K; Loewenstein, George; Volpp, Kevin G

2012-11-01

Behavioral economic-based interventions are emerging as powerful tools to help individuals accomplish their own goals, including weight loss. Deposit contract incentive systems give participants the opportunity to put their money down toward losing weight, which they forfeit if they fail to lose weight; lottery incentive systems enable participants to win money if they attain weight loss goals. In this paper, we pool data from two prior studies to examine a variety of issues that unpublished data from those studies allow us to address. First, examining data from the deposit contract treatments in greater depth, we investigate factors affecting deposit frequency and size, and discuss possible ways of increasing deposits. Next, we compare the effectiveness of both deposit contract and lottery interventions as a function of participant demographic characteristics. These observations may help to guide the design of future, longer-term, behavioral economic-based interventions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Data link communications in the National Airspace System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Alfred T.

1989-01-01

In the near future, conventional radio communications, currently the primary medium for the transfer of information between aircraft and ground stations, will be replaced by digital data link. This paper briefly describes this technology and summarizes what are believed to be the principal human factor issues associated with data link implementation in the airspace system. Integration of data link communications with existing systems on the flight deck and in the Air Traffic Control system is discussed with regard for both near term implementation and longer term operational issues.

An intervention to support stroke survivors and their carers in the longer term (LoTS2Care): study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial.

PubMed

Forster, Anne; Hartley, Suzanne; Barnard, Lorna; Ozer, Seline; Hardicre, Natasha; Crocker, Tom; Fletcher, Marie; Moreau, Lauren; Atkinson, Ross; Hulme, Claire; Holloway, Ivana; Schmitt, Laetitia; House, Allan; Hewison, Jenny; Richardson, Gillian; Farrin, Amanda

2018-06-11

Despite the evidence that many stroke survivors report longer term unmet needs, the provision of longer term care is limited. To address this, we are conducting a programme of research to develop an evidence-based and replicable longer term care strategy. The developed complex intervention (named New Start), which includes needs identification, exploration of social networks and components of problem solving and self-management, was designed to improve quality of life by addressing unmet needs and increasing participation. A multicentre, cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial designed to inform the design of a possible future definitive cluster randomised controlled trial (cRCT) and explore the potential clinical and cost-effectiveness of New Start. Ten stroke services across the UK will be randomised on a 1:1 basis either to implement New Start or continue with usual care only. New Start will be delivered by trained facilitators and will be offered to all stroke survivors within the services allocated to the intervention arm. Stroke survivors will be eligible for the trial if they are 4-6 months post-stroke and residing in the community. Carers (if available) will also be invited to take part. Invitation to participate will be initiated by post and outcome measures will be collected via postal questionnaires at 3, 6 and 9 months after recruitment. Outcome data relating to perceived health and disability, wellbeing and quality of life as well as unmet needs will be collected. A 'study within a trial' (SWAT) is planned to determine the most acceptable format in which to provide the postal questionnaires. Details of health and social care service usage will also be collected to inform the economic evaluation. The feasibility of recruiting services and stroke survivors to the trial and of collecting postal outcomes will be assessed and the potential for effectiveness will be investigated. An embedded process evaluation (reported separately) will assess implementation fidelity and explore and clarify causal assumptions regarding implementation. This feasibility trial with embedded process evaluation will allow us to gather important and detailed data regarding methodological and implementation issues to inform the design of a possible future definitive cRCT of this complex intervention. ISRCTN38920246 . Registered 22 June 2016.

Anoxia stimulates microbially catalyzed metal release from Animas River sediments

DOE PAGES

Saup, Casey M.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Rodríguez-Freire, Lucía; ...

2017-03-06

The Gold King Mine spill in August 2015 released 11 million liters of metal-rich mine waste to the Animas River watershed, an area that has been previously exposed to historical mining activity spanning more than a century. Although adsorption onto fluvial sediments was responsible for rapid immobilization of a significant fraction of the spill-associated metals, patterns of longer-term mobility are poorly constrained. Metals associated with river sediments collected downstream of the Gold King Mine in August 2015 exhibited distinct presence and abundance patterns linked to location and mineralogy. Simulating riverbed burial and development of anoxic conditions, sediment microcosm experiments amendedmore » with Animas River dissolved organic carbon revealed the release of specific metal pools coupled to microbial Fe- and SO 4 2-reduction. Results suggest that future sedimentation and burial of riverbed materials may drive longer-term changes in patterns of metal remobilization linked to anaerobic microbial metabolism, potentially driving decreases in downstream water quality. Such patterns emphasize the need for long-term water monitoring efforts in metal-impacted watersheds.« less

Anoxia stimulates microbially catalyzed metal release from Animas River sediments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saup, Casey M.; Williams, Kenneth H.; Rodríguez-Freire, Lucía

The Gold King Mine spill in August 2015 released 11 million liters of metal-rich mine waste to the Animas River watershed, an area that has been previously exposed to historical mining activity spanning more than a century. Although adsorption onto fluvial sediments was responsible for rapid immobilization of a significant fraction of the spill-associated metals, patterns of longer-term mobility are poorly constrained. Metals associated with river sediments collected downstream of the Gold King Mine in August 2015 exhibited distinct presence and abundance patterns linked to location and mineralogy. Simulating riverbed burial and development of anoxic conditions, sediment microcosm experiments amendedmore » with Animas River dissolved organic carbon revealed the release of specific metal pools coupled to microbial Fe- and SO 4 2-reduction. Results suggest that future sedimentation and burial of riverbed materials may drive longer-term changes in patterns of metal remobilization linked to anaerobic microbial metabolism, potentially driving decreases in downstream water quality. Such patterns emphasize the need for long-term water monitoring efforts in metal-impacted watersheds.« less

A behavioral economic reward index predicts drinking resolutions: moderation revisited and compared with other outcomes.

PubMed

Tucker, Jalie A; Roth, David L; Vignolo, Mary J; Westfall, Andrew O

2009-04-01

Data were pooled from 3 studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1- to 2-year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes than abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced preresolution monetary allocations between short-term and longer term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (ORs) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this "Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure" index predicted higher rates of abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared with moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of preresolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation.

Recent projections of 21st-century climate change and watershed responses in the Sierra Nevada

Treesearch

Michael D. Dettinger; Daniel R. Cayan; Noah Knowles; Anthony Westerling; Mary K. Tyree

2004-01-01

In the near future, the Sierra Nevada’s climate is projected to experience a new form of climate change due to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the global atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities. If the changes occur, they presumably will be added to the large interannual and longer-term climate variations in the recent...

Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Brigham-Grette, Julie; Miller, Gifford H.; Polyak, Leonid; ,; ,; ,

2009-01-01

Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

Octane and Internal Combustion Engine Advancements from a Long(er) Term Perspective: Insights from the Co-Optima Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farrell, John T

Co-Optima research and analysis have identified fuel properties that enable advanced LD and HD engines. 95 RON will directionally improve boosted SI efficiency, but higher RON and S provide additional benefits. The optimal fuel properties for future engines are still uncertain. There are a large number of blendstocks readily derived from biomass (and petroleum) that possess beneficial properties.

Lake Energy Budget and Temperature Profiles Under Future Greenhouse Gas Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofgren, B. M.; Xiao, C.

2017-12-01

Future climates under higher concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to feature higher air and water temperatures, and shifts in surface heat fluxes. We investigate in greater detail the evolution of this in terms of the annual cycle of lake temperature profiles, stratification, and ice formation. Other work has found that, although shallower water promotes more rapid changes in surface water temperature within a season, change in surface water temperature across decades is more prominent in locations with greater water depth. Our simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its lake module, WRF-Lake, show a trend toward longer periods of summer stratification, both through earlier onset in the spring and later decay of stratification in the fall. They also show a general increase in temperature throughout the water column, but most pronounced near the surface during the summer. Likewise, ice duration is much shorter and more restricted to shallow embayments. High latent and sensible heat flux during the fall and winter are less intense but longer lasting under the future scenario. Sources of uncertainty are cumulative—actual future greenhouse gas concentrations, global sensitivity of climate change, cloud feedbacks, the combined formulation of the regional climate model (WRF) and its global driving model, and more.

The use of foresight methods in strategic raw materials intelligence - an international review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrat Martins, Marco Antonio; Bodo, Balazs; Falck, Eberhard

2017-04-01

Foresight methods are systematic attempts to look into the longer term future of science, society, economy and technology. There is a range of tools and techniques that can be used individually or combined, most commonly classified into qualitative, quantitative or semi-quantitative methods, that follow an exploratory or normative approach. These tools can help to identify the longer term visions, orienting policy formulation and decisions, triggering actions, among other objectives. There is an identified lack of European strategic foresight knowledge in the raw materials domain. Since the European Raw Materials Initiative was launched in 2008, the EU has been attempting to overcome challenges related to the future access of non-energy and non-agricultural raw materials. In this context, the ongoing H2020 project, MICA (Mineral Intelligence Capacity Analysis, Grant Agreement No. 689648), has been launched to answer to stakeholders needs by consolidating relevant data, determining relevant methods and tools, and investigating Raw Materials Intelligence options for European mineral policy development, all tailored to fit under the umbrella of a European Raw Materials Intelligence Capacity Platform (EU-RMICP). As part of the MICA activities, an assessment of best practices and benchmarks of international raw materials foresight case studies has been carried out in order to review how EU and non-EU countries have employed foresight. A pool of 30 case studies has been collected and reviewed internationally, one third of which were selected for detailed assessment. These were classified according to their background and goals, in function of methods employed, and to the purpose of each method in the study: a total of 12 different methods were identified in these studies. For longer time frames, qualitative predictive methods such as Scenario Development have been repeatedly observed for mineral raw materials foresight studies. Substantial variations were observed in terms of use and deployment of the scenarios. Pre-defined global scenarios can be used to explore futures thinking over a given theme - a step in the process - whereas the development of specific scenarios can be the main element of the study. The former was used to consider future strategies at different levels and how different futures influence the sector, whilst the latter was preferably used as means of assessment of sector capabilities and the current readiness for future challenges. Other methods such as SWOT, STEEP (Social, Technological, Economical, Environmental and Political scanning) and Brainstorming can be observed supporting the Scenarios, helping to provide either input for its development or post-processing its outcomes towards overall objectives. The volatility of the mineral raw materials sector presents a natural inclination towards more explorative and creativity-based methods. Such methods can address the necessity of understanding how different factors may play out in the future, where critical uncertainties can dictate a range of possible futures. Therefore, having a solid backdrop for alternative paths is extremely useful for policy and decision-makers to propose actions and respond in a timely manner to the future challenges of the sector.

Time series analysis of malaria in Afghanistan: using ARIMA models to predict future trends in incidence.

PubMed

Anwar, Mohammad Y; Lewnard, Joseph A; Parikh, Sunil; Pitzer, Virginia E

2016-11-22

Malaria remains endemic in Afghanistan. National control and prevention strategies would be greatly enhanced through a better ability to forecast future trends in disease incidence. It is, therefore, of interest to develop a predictive tool for malaria patterns based on the current passive and affordable surveillance system in this resource-limited region. This study employs data from Ministry of Public Health monthly reports from January 2005 to September 2015. Malaria incidence in Afghanistan was forecasted using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in order to build a predictive tool for malaria surveillance. Environmental and climate data were incorporated to assess whether they improve predictive power of models. Two models were identified, each appropriate for different time horizons. For near-term forecasts, malaria incidence can be predicted based on the number of cases in the four previous months and 12 months prior (Model 1); for longer-term prediction, malaria incidence can be predicted using the rates 1 and 12 months prior (Model 2). Next, climate and environmental variables were incorporated to assess whether the predictive power of proposed models could be improved. Enhanced vegetation index was found to have increased the predictive accuracy of longer-term forecasts. Results indicate ARIMA models can be applied to forecast malaria patterns in Afghanistan, complementing current surveillance systems. The models provide a means to better understand malaria dynamics in a resource-limited context with minimal data input, yielding forecasts that can be used for public health planning at the national level.

Simulation of Halocarbon Production and Emissions and Effects on Ozone Depletion

PubMed

Holmes; Ellis

1997-09-01

/ This paper describes an integrated model that simulates future halocarbon production/emissions and potential ozone depletion. Applications and historical production levels for various halocarbons are discussed first. A framework is then presented for modeling future halocarbon impacts incorporating differences in underlying demands, applications, regulatory mandates, and environmental characteristics. The model is used to simulate the potential impacts of several prominent issues relating to halocarbon production, regulation, and environmental interactions, notably: changes in agricultural methyl bromide use, increases in effectiveness of bromine for ozone depletion, modifications to the elimination schedule for HCFCs, short-term expansion of CFC demand in low use compliance countries, and delays in Russian Federation compliance. Individually, each issue does not unequivocally represent a significant likely increase in long-term atmospheric halogen loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. In combination, however, these impacts could increase peak halogen concentrations and long-term integral halogen loading, resulting in higher levels of stratospheric ozone depletion and longer exposure to increased levels of UV radiation.KEY WORDS: Halocarbons; Ozone depletion; Montreal Protocol; Integrated assessment

Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-03

water and power shortages, and a major currency devaluation , raising questions about his longer term political future. On foreign policy, Chavez’s...have not disappeared. Most emerging market nations have weathered the crisis, international private investment flows are recovering, and the IMF has...lose support from the IMF and other sources of finance. Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Romania remain

Long-Term Acoustic Real-Time Sensor for Polar Areas (LARA)

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

segment in the northeast Pacific Ocean. Both areas have seafloor volcanic eruptions forecast for the near future, and the LARA moorings will allow us...time monitoring of deep-ocean seismic and volcanic activity (e.g., Dziak et al., 2012) - especially in areas where SOSUS coverage no longer exists...precursors and magma ascent before the April 2011 eruption at Axial Seamount. Nature Geoscience, 5, pp. 478-482. Klatt, O., Boebel, O., and Fahrbach, E

Is seeing believing? Expectant parents’ outlooks on coparenting and later coparenting solidarity

PubMed Central

McHale, James P.; Rotman, Tamir

2007-01-01

This study examined short- and longer-term sequelae of parents’ prenatal expectations of their future family process, and traced subsequent stability in coparenting solidarity from infancy through the toddler years. 110 couples expecting a first child participated in prenatal assessments of coparenting expectations and differences, and in 3 month post-partum evaluations. 45 couples completed subsequent assessments at 12 and 30 months. At each time point multi-method evaluations of coparental adjustment were obtained. Men’s and women’s expectancies during the pregnancy and the degree of difference between their self-reported beliefs about parenting predicted post-baby coparental adjustment, with latent class analyses suggesting aftereffects of prenatal expectancies up through 30 months for some couples. Coparental solidarity was also stable from 3 to 12 and from 12 to 30 months. Data indicate that the lens parents bring to bear on their emerging family system is not immaterial, and that early-emerging coparenting dynamics portend longer term coparenting adjustment. PMID:17292781

Understanding and enhancing future infrastructure resiliency: a socio-ecological approach.

PubMed

Sage, Daniel; Sircar, Indraneel; Dainty, Andrew; Fussey, Pete; Goodier, Chris

2015-07-01

The resilience of any system, human or natural, centres on its capacity to adapt its structure, but not necessarily its function, to a new configuration in response to long-term socio-ecological change. In the long term, therefore, enhancing resilience involves more than simply improving a system's ability to resist an immediate threat or to recover to a stable past state. However, despite the prevalence of adaptive notions of resilience in academic discourse, it is apparent that infrastructure planners and policies largely continue to struggle to comprehend longer-term system adaptation in their understanding of resilience. Instead, a short-term, stable system (STSS) perspective on resilience is prevalent. This paper seeks to identify and problematise this perspective, presenting research based on the development of a heuristic 'scenario-episode' tool to address, and challenge, it in the context of United Kingdom infrastructure resilience. The aim is to help resilience practitioners to understand better the capacities of future infrastructure systems to respond to natural, malicious threats. © 2015 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2015.

Predictive Performance of Echocardiographic Parameters for Cardiovascular Events Among Elderly Treated Hypertensive Patients.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Enayet K; Jennings, Garry L R; Dewar, Elizabeth; Wing, Lindon M H; Reid, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Hypertension leads to cardiac structural and functional changes, commonly assessed by echocardiography. In this study, we assessed the predictive performance of different echocardiographic parameters including left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) on future cardiovascular outcomes in elderly hypertensive patients without heart failure. Data from LVH substudy of the Second Australian National Blood Pressure trial were used. Echocardiograms were performed at entry into the study. Cardiovascular outcomes were identified over short term (median 4.2 years) and long term (median 10.9 years). LVH was defined using threshold values of LV mass (LVM) indexed to either body surface area (BSA) or height(2.7): >115/95g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(115/95)) or ≥49/45g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(49/45)) in males/females, respectively, and ≥125g/m(2) (LVH-BSA(125)) or ≥51g/m(2.7) (LVH-ht(51)) for both sexes. In the 666 participants aged ≥65 years in this analysis, LVH prevalence at baseline was 33%-70% depending on definition; and after adjusting for potential risk factors, only LVH-BSA(115/95) predicted both short- and long-term cardiovascular outcomes. Participants having LVH-BSA(115/95) (69%) at baseline had twice the risk of having any first cardiovascular event over the short term (hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 2.00, 1.12-3.57, P = 0.02) and any fatal cardiovascular events (2.11, 1.21-3.68, P = 0.01) over the longer term. Among other echocardiographic parameters, LVM and LVM indexed to either BSA or height(2.7) predicted cardiovascular events over both short and longer term. In elderly treated hypertensive patients without heart failure, determining LVH by echocardiography is highly dependent on the methodology adopted. LVH-BSA(115/95) is a reliable predictor of future cardiovascular outcomes in the elderly. © American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd 2016. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of Federal Tax Credit Extensions on Renewable Deployment and Power Sector Emissions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mai, Trieu; Cole, Wesley; Lantz, Eric

Federal tax credits for renewable energy (RE) have served as one of the primary financial incentives for RE deployment over the last two decades in the United States. In December 2015, the wind power production tax credit and solar investment tax credits were extended for five years as part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2016. This report explores the impact that these tax credit extensions might have on future RE capacity deployment and power sector carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The analysis examines the impacts of the tax credit extensions under two distinct natural gas price futures as natural gasmore » prices have been key factors in influencing the economic competitiveness of new RE development. The analysis finds that, in both natural gas price futures, RE tax credit extensions can spur RE capacity investments at least through the early 2020s and can help lower emissions from the U.S. electricity system. More specifically, the RE tax credit extensions are estimated to drive a net peak increase of 48-53 GW in installed RE capacity in the early 2020s -- longer term impacts are less certain. In the longer term after the tax credits ramp down, greater RE capacity is driven by a combination of assumed RE cost declines, rising fossil fuel prices, and other clean energy policies such as the Clean Power Plan. The tax credit extension-driven acceleration in RE capacity development can reduce fossil fuel-based generation and lower electric sector CO2 emissions. Cumulative emissions reductions over a 15-year period (spanning 2016-2030) as a result of the tax credit extensions are estimated to range from 540 to 1420 million metric tonnes CO2. These findings suggest that tax credit extensions can have a measurable impact on future RE deployment and electric sector CO2 emissions under a range of natural gas price futures.« less

Vaccines of the future.

PubMed

Nossal, G J V

2011-12-30

Vaccines of the future can be divided into three broad groups, namely those of the near future (<10 years); the medium-term future (10-19 years); and the long-term future (20-50 years). For the near future, there is some "low hanging fruit" which is clearly on the horizon, such as a Vi-conjugate vaccine for typhoid or a protein-based vaccine for Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B. Just slightly more distant will be vaccines for shigellosis and a common protein vaccine for Streptococcus pneumoniae. Also in this group, but not as far advanced, will be a vaccine for Group A streptococcus. I place vaccines for the "big three", malaria, tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS in the medium term basket. The sporozoite malaria vaccine RTS-S is closest, but surely a definitive malaria vaccine will also require antigens from other stages of the life cycle. A tuberculosis vaccine will be either a re-engineered BCG; or a molecular vaccine with several protein antigens; or one based on prime-boost strategies. What will delay this is the high cost of clinical trials. For HIV/AIDS, the partial success of the Sanofi-Pasteur prime-boost vaccine has given some hope. I still place much faith in antibody-based vaccines and especially on mimotopes of the env transitional state assumed after initial CD4 binding. Monoclonal antibodies are also leading us in interesting directions. Longer term, the vaccine approach will be successful for autoimmune diseases, e.g. juvenile diabetes and coeliac disease. Cancer vaccines are also briefly surveyed. Adjunct issues needing to be addressed include more extensive combinations; alternate delivery systems; and more intelligently designed adjuvants based on knowledge of the innate immune system. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Building a strategic security organisation.

PubMed

Howard, Mike

2016-01-01

In everyone's day-to-day jobs there is constant need to deal with current and newly detected matters. This is now a world of immediacy, driven by the cadence of the business and its needs. These concerns should not be ignored, as failing to deal with these issues would not bode well for the future. It is essential that the gears are kept spinning. The challenge for any security organisation is to identify its short-term tactical requirements, while developing longer-term strategic needs. Once done, the differences can be accounted for and strides can be made toward a desired future state. This paper highlights several steps that the author and his team have taken in their own journey. There is no magic answer, each organisation will have its own unique challenges. Nevertheless, some of the approaches to building a strategic security organisation described in this paper are applicable to all organisations, irrespective of their size.

2014 - 2015 Civil Affairs Issue Papers: The Future of Civil Affairs

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-18

companies. Included is a request for a SME on zoonotic diseases to help with a strange virus effecting goat herds in Beledweyne, a call for advice from a...local veterinary officer orders the right medication to treat the goats , the water plant manager or- ders the right pumps to improve agricultural...Since most CIM RFI deal with longer term civil sector challenges such as agri- cultural, farming , and education questions, responses are not

Advanced composites characterization with x-ray technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaklini, George Y.

1993-12-01

Recognizing the critical need to advance new composites for the aeronautics and aerospace industries, we are focussing on advanced test methods that are vital to successful modeling and manufacturing of future generations of high temperature and durable composite materials. These newly developed composites are necessary to reduce propulsion cost and weight, to improve performance and reliability, and to address longer-term national strategic thrusts for sustaining global preeminence in high speed air transport and in high performance military aircraft.

Implications of longer term rest from grazing in the sagebrush steppe

Treesearch

K.W. Davies; M. Vavra; B. Schultz; N. Rimbey

2014-01-01

Longer term grazing rest has occurred or been proposed in large portions of the sagebrush steppe based on the assumption that it will improve ecosystem properties. However, information regarding the influence of longer term rest from grazing is limited and has not been summarized. We synthesized the scientific literature on long-term rest in the sagebrush steppe to...

Immediate and Longer-Term Stressors and the Mental Health of Hurricane Ike Survivors

PubMed Central

Lowe, Sarah R.; Tracy, Melissa; Cerdá, Magdalena; Norris, Fran H.; Galea, Sandro

2014-01-01

Previous research has documented that individuals exposed to more stressors during disasters and their immediate aftermath (immediate stressors) are at risk of experiencing longer-term postdisaster stressors. Longer-term stressors, in turn, have been found to play a key role in shaping postdisaster psychological functioning. Few studies have simultaneously explored the links from immediate to longer-term stressors, and from longer-term stressors to psychological functioning, however. Additionally, studies have inadequately explored whether postdisaster psychological symptoms influence longer-term stressors. In the current study, we aimed to fill these gaps. Participants (N = 448) were from population-based study of Hurricane Ike survivors and completed assessments 2–5 months (Wave 1), 5–9 months (Wave 2) and 14–18 months (Wave 3) postdisaster. Through path analysis, we found that immediate stressors, assessed at Wave 1, were positively associated with Wave 2 and Wave 3 stressors, which in turn were positively associated with Wave 2 and Wave 3 posttraumatic stress and depressive symptoms. Wave 2 posttraumatic stress symptoms were positively associated with Wave 3 stressors, and Wave 1 depressive symptoms were positively associated with Wave 2 stressors. The findings suggest that policies and interventions can reduce the impact of disasters on mental health by preventing and alleviating both immediate and longer-term postdisaster stressors. PMID:24343752

Predicting future protection of respirator users: Statistical approaches and practical implications.

PubMed

Hu, Chengcheng; Harber, Philip; Su, Jing

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe a statistical approach for predicting a respirator user's fit factor in the future based upon results from initial tests. A statistical prediction model was developed based upon joint distribution of multiple fit factor measurements over time obtained from linear mixed effect models. The model accounts for within-subject correlation as well as short-term (within one day) and longer-term variability. As an example of applying this approach, model parameters were estimated from a research study in which volunteers were trained by three different modalities to use one of two types of respirators. They underwent two quantitative fit tests at the initial session and two on the same day approximately six months later. The fitted models demonstrated correlation and gave the estimated distribution of future fit test results conditional on past results for an individual worker. This approach can be applied to establishing a criterion value for passing an initial fit test to provide reasonable likelihood that a worker will be adequately protected in the future; and to optimizing the repeat fit factor test intervals individually for each user for cost-effective testing.

Long-term course of opioid addiction.

PubMed

Hser, Yih-Ing; Evans, Elizabeth; Grella, Christine; Ling, Walter; Anglin, Douglas

2015-01-01

Opioid addiction is associated with excess mortality, morbidities, and other adverse conditions. Guided by a life-course framework, we review the literature on the long-term course of opioid addiction in terms of use trajectories, transitions, and turning points, as well as other factors that facilitate recovery from addiction. Most long-term follow-up studies are based on heroin addicts recruited from treatment settings (mostly methadone maintenance treatment), many of whom are referred by the criminal justice system. Cumulative evidence indicates that opioid addiction is a chronic disorder with frequent relapses. Longer treatment retention is associated with a greater likelihood of abstinence, whereas incarceration is negatively related to subsequent abstinence. Over the long term, the mortality rate of opioid addicts (overdose being the most common cause) is about 6 to 20 times greater than that of the general population; among those who remain alive, the prevalence of stable abstinence from opioid use is low (less than 30% after 10-30 years of observation), and many continue to use alcohol and other drugs after ceasing to use opioids. Histories of sexual or physical abuse and comorbid mental disorders are associated with the persistence of opioid use, whereas family and social support, as well as employment, facilitates recovery. Maintaining opioid abstinence for at least five years substantially increases the likelihood of future stable abstinence. Recent advances in pharmacological treatment options (buprenorphine and naltrexone) include depot formulations offering longer duration of medication; their impact on the long-term course of opioid addiction remains to be assessed.

78 FR 30948 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Fixed Income Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-23

... Options on Interest Rate Futures Contracts With Maturities Not Longer Than Two Years in the One- Pot Cross... allow FICC to include options on interest rate futures contracts with maturities not longer than two...) The purpose of the advance notice is to include options on interest rate futures contracts with...

Effects of remedial grouting on the ground-water flow system at Red Rock Dam near Pella, Iowa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linhart, S. Mike; Schaap, Bryan D.

2001-01-01

Hydrographs, statistical analysis of waterlevel data, and water-chemistry data suggest that underseepage on the northeast side of the dam has been reduced but not completely eliminated. Some areas appear to have been affected to a greater degree and for a longer period of time than other areas. Future monitoring of water levels, water chemistry, and stable isotopes can aid in the evaluation of the long-term effectiveness of remedial grouting.

Advanced Fuels Campaign FY 2015 Accomplishments Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Braase, Lori Ann; Carmack, William Jonathan

2015-10-29

The mission of the Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) is to perform research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities for advanced fuel forms (including cladding) to enhance the performance and safety of the nation’s current and future reactors; enhance proliferation resistance of nuclear fuel; effectively utilize nuclear energy resources; and address the longer-term waste management challenges. This report is a compilation of technical accomplishment summaries for FY-15. Emphasis is on advanced accident-tolerant LWR fuel systems, advanced transmutation fuels technologies, and capability development.

An exploration of factors affecting the long term psychological impact and deterioration of mental health in flooded households.

PubMed

Lamond, Jessica Elizabeth; Joseph, Rotimi D; Proverbs, David G

2015-07-01

The long term psychological effect of the distress and trauma caused by the memory of damage and losses associated with flooding of communities remains an under researched impact of flooding. This is particularly important for communities that are likely to be repeatedly flooded where levels of mental health disorder will damage long term resilience to future flooding. There are a variety of factors that affect the prevalence of mental health disorders in the aftermath of flooding including pre-existing mental health, socio-economic factors and flood severity. However previous research has tended to focus on the short term impacts immediately following the flood event and much less focus has been given to the longer terms effects of flooding. Understanding of factors affecting the longer term mental health outcomes for flooded households is critical in order to support communities in improving social resilience. Hence, the aim of this study was to explore the characteristics associated with psychological distress and mental health deterioration over the longer term. The research examined responses from a postal survey of households flooded during the 2007 flood event across England. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis and binomial logistic regression were applied to data representing household characteristics, flood event characteristics and post-flood stressors and coping strategies. These factors were related to reported measures of stress, anxiety, depression and mental health deterioration. The results showed that household income, depth of flooding; having to move out during reinstatement and mitigating actions are related to the prevalence of psycho-social symptoms in previously flooded households. In particular relocation and household income were the most predictive factors. The practical implication of these findings for recovery after flooding are: to consider the preferences of households in terms of the need to move out during restorative building works and the financial resource constraints that may lead to severe mental hardship. In addition the findings suggest that support with installing mitigation measures may lead to improved mental health outcomes for communities at risk. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A novel bio-mimicking, planar nano-edge microelectrode enables enhanced long-term neural recording

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wijdenes, Pierre; Ali, Hasan; Armstrong, Ryden; Zaidi, Wali; Dalton, Colin; Syed, Naweed I.

2016-10-01

Our inability to accurately monitor individual neurons and their synaptic activity precludes fundamental understanding of brain function under normal and various pathological conditions. However, recent breakthroughs in micro- and nano-scale fabrication processes have advanced the development of neuro-electronic hybrid technology. Among such devices are three-dimensional and planar electrodes, offering the advantages of either high fidelity or longer-term recordings respectively. Here, we present the next generation of planar microelectrode arrays with “nano-edges” that enable long-term (≥1 month) and high fidelity recordings at a resolution 15 times higher than traditional planar electrodes. This novel technology enables better understanding of brain function and offers a tremendous opportunity towards the development of future bionic hybrids and drug discovery devices.

Biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships in long-term time series and palaeoecological records: deep sea as a test bed.

PubMed

Yasuhara, Moriaki; Doi, Hideyuki; Wei, Chih-Lin; Danovaro, Roberto; Myhre, Sarah E

2016-05-19

The link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) over long temporal scales is poorly understood. Here, we investigate biological monitoring and palaeoecological records on decadal, centennial and millennial time scales from a BEF framework by using deep sea, soft-sediment environments as a test bed. Results generally show positive BEF relationships, in agreement with BEF studies based on present-day spatial analyses and short-term manipulative experiments. However, the deep-sea BEF relationship is much noisier across longer time scales compared with modern observational studies. We also demonstrate with palaeoecological time-series data that a larger species pool does not enhance ecosystem stability through time, whereas higher abundance as an indicator of higher ecosystem functioning may enhance ecosystem stability. These results suggest that BEF relationships are potentially time scale-dependent. Environmental impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning may be much stronger than biodiversity impacts on ecosystem functioning at long, decadal-millennial, time scales. Longer time scale perspectives, including palaeoecological and ecosystem monitoring data, are critical for predicting future BEF relationships on a rapidly changing planet. © 2016 The Author(s).

The durations of past sickness absences predict future absence episodes.

PubMed

Laaksonen, Mikko; He, Liang; Pitkäniemi, Janne

2013-01-01

To determine whether preceding absence episodes increase the risk of future sickness absence, we examined recurrence of short (1 to 3 days), intermediate (4 to 14 days), and long (>2 weeks) sickness-absence episodes. Data from 6934 municipal employees of the City of Helsinki were analyzed using proportional hazards models. Preceding sickness absence increased the risk of new sickness-absence episodes. The association was stronger for longer sickness absence spells and for men. Shorter absence spells also predicted longer absence spells. Working conditions and health behaviors did not modify the associations. The risk of recurrent sickness absences is higher for longer sickness-absence spells, which are often recurrent in nature. In addition, short absence spells predict future longer spells, suggesting that short absences are not trivial for health.

Impact of Traumatic Lower Extremity Injuries Beyond Acute Care: Movement-Based Considerations for Resultant Longer Term Secondary Health Conditions

PubMed Central

Butowicz, Courtney M.; Dearth, Christopher L.; Hendershot, Brad D.

2017-01-01

Significance: Advances in field-based trauma care, surgical techniques, and protective equipment have collectively facilitated the survival of a historically large number of service members (SMs) following combat trauma, although many sustained significant composite tissue injuries to the extremities, including limb loss (LL) and limb salvage (LS). Beyond the acute surgical and rehabilitative efforts that focus primarily on wound care and restoring mobility, traumatic LL and LS are associated with several debilitating longer term secondary health conditions (e.g., low back pain [LBP], osteoarthritis [OA], and cardiovascular disease [CVD]) that can adversely impact physical function and quality of life. Recent Advances: Despite recent advancements in prosthetic and orthotic devices, altered movement and mechanical loading patterns have been identified among persons with LL and salvage, which are purported risk factors for the development of longer term secondary musculoskeletal conditions and may limit functional outcomes and/or concomitantly impact cardiovascular health. Critical Issues: The increased prevalence of and risk for LBP, OA, and CVD among the relatively young cohort of SMs with LL and LS significantly impact physiological and psychological well-being, particularly over the next several decades of their lives. Future Directions: Longitudinal studies are needed to characterize the onset, progression, and recurrence of health conditions secondary to LL and salvage. While not a focus of the current review, detailed characterization of physiological biomarkers throughout the rehabilitation process may provide additional insight into the current understanding of disease processes of the musculoskeletal and cardiovascular systems. PMID:28831330

Space Cooling in North America: Market Overview and Future Impacts

DOE PAGES

Baxter, Van D; Khowailed, Gannate; Sikes, Karen; ...

2015-01-01

The North American space cooling market, particularly in the United States, is experiencing shifts in regulatory regimes, population patterns, economic conditions, and consumer preferences-all catalyzed further by rapid technological innovation. Taken together these factors may result in a slight reduction in air conditioning shipments in the short term, however the longer term trends indicate a continuing increase in the number of air conditioning systems in the U.S. markets. These increases will be greatest in the warmer and more humid (e.g. higher load demand) regions. This will result in increasing pressure on the U.S. electricity supply system to meet the energymore » peak and consumption demands for building space cooling.« less

National differences in environmental concern and performance are predicted by country age.

PubMed

Hershfield, Hal E; Bang, H Min; Weber, Elke U

2014-01-01

There are obvious economic predictors of ability and willingness to invest in environmental sustainability. Yet, given that environmental decisions represent trade-offs between present sacrifices and uncertain future benefits, psychological factors may also play a role in country-level environmental behavior. Gott's principle suggests that citizens may use perceptions of their country's age to predict its future continuation, with longer pasts predicting longer futures. Using country- and individual-level analyses, we examined whether longer perceived pasts result in longer perceived futures, which in turn motivate concern for continued environmental quality. Study 1 found that older countries scored higher on an environmental performance index, even when the analysis controlled for country-level differences in gross domestic product and governance. Study 2 showed that when the United States was framed as an old country (vs. a young one), participants were willing to donate more money to an environmental organization. The findings suggest that framing a country as a long-standing entity may effectively prompt proenvironmental behavior.

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Akyüz, F. Adnan; Lin, Wei

2016-01-01

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

The Longer School Day and Five Term Year in CTCs: Some Initial Observations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hagedorn, Julia

To satisfy the requirements of the British national curriculum and to provide greater emphasis on the teaching of mathematics, science, and technology, city technical colleges (CTCs) have adopted a longer working week and, in several cases, a longer school year. This document examines outcomes of the longer school day and the five-term year, 4…

Climate change and marine ecosystems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, F.

2013-12-01

Impacts of climate variability on marine ecosystems are pervasive. Those associated with the interannual El Ni~no phenomena are the most studied and better understood. Longer term variations associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have become more evident as the present-day instrumental record has increased in length. The biological (chlorophyll to fish) and chemical (nutrients, oxygen, carbon) consequences of these climate-driven variations are discussed with an emphasis on the eastern and equatorial Pacific. During warmer periods biological productivity in the eastern Pacific is reduced and larger mobile organisms dramatically change their abundance and/or geographic distributions. At the same time biological productivity in the western Pacific increases highlighting that present (and future) climate-driven changes in biological productivity and chemical distributions are not (and will not) be uniform. The presentation documents present day variations using global scale information from satellites and in situ databases, model simulations and data collected by intensive local time series. Paradoxically longer term changes associated with phenomena like the Little Ice Age (LIA), captured in the sedimentary record, do not seem to follow the same warm (poor), cold (productive) patterns in the eastern Pacific, in fact these are reversed. The presentation ends with speculation regarding long term changes associated with a warmer world.

More connected urban roads reduce US GHG emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrington-Leigh, Chris; Millard-Ball, Adam

2017-04-01

We quantify the importance of early action to tackle urban sprawl. We focus on the long-term nature of infrastructure decisions, specifically local roadways, which can lock in greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. The location and interconnectedness of local roadways form a near-permanent backbone for the future layout of land parcels, buildings, and transportation options. We provide new estimates of the environmental impact of low-connectivity roads, characterized by cul-de-sacs and T-intersections, which we dub street-network sprawl. We find an elasticity of vehicle ownership with respect to street connectivity of -0.15—larger than suggested by previous research. We then apply this estimate to quantify the long-term emissions implications of alternative scenarios for street-network sprawl. On current trends alone, we project vehicle travel and emissions to fall by ˜3.2% over the 2015-2050 period, compared to a scenario where sprawl plateaus at its 1994 peak. Concerted policy efforts to increase street connectivity could more than triple these reductions to ˜8.8% by 2050. Longer-term reductions over the 2050-2100 period are more speculative, but could be more than 50% greater than those achieved by 2050. The longer the timescale over which mitigation efforts are considered, the more important it becomes to address the physical form of the built environment.

Speculative and Hedging Interaction Model in Oil and U.S. Dollar Markets—Phase Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Michael; Carfì, David

2018-01-01

We show that there is a phase transition in the bounded rational Carfì-Musolino model, and the possibility of a market crash. This model has two types of operators: a real economic subject (Air) and one or more investment banks (Bank). It also has two markets: oil spot market and US dollar futures. Bank agents react to Air and equilibrate much more quickly than Air. Thus Air is an acting external agent due to its longer-term investing, whereas the action of the banks equilibrates before Air makes its next transaction. This model constitutes a potential game, and agents crowd their preferences into one of the markets at a critical temperature when air makes no purchases of oil futures.

Long-Term Outcomes of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Adolescent Body Dysmorphic Disorder.

PubMed

Krebs, Georgina; de la Cruz, Lorena Fernández; Monzani, Benedetta; Bowyer, Laura; Anson, Martin; Cadman, Jacinda; Heyman, Isobel; Turner, Cynthia; Veale, David; Mataix-Cols, David

2017-07-01

Emerging evidence suggests that cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) is an efficacious treatment for adolescent body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) in the short term, but longer-term outcomes remain unknown. The current study aimed to follow up a group of adolescents who had originally participated in a randomized controlled trial of CBT for BDD to determine whether treatment gains were maintained. Twenty-six adolescents (mean age = 16.2, SD = 1.6) with a primary diagnosis of BDD received a course of developmentally tailored CBT and were followed up over 12 months. Participants were assessed at baseline, midtreatment, posttreatment, 2-, 6-, and 12-month follow-up. The primary outcome measure was the clinician-rated Yale-Brown Obsessive-Compulsive Scale Modified for BDD. Secondary outcomes included measures of insight, depression, quality of life, and global functioning. BDD symptoms decreased significantly from pre- to posttreatment and remained stable over the 12-month follow-up. At this time point, 50% of participants were classified as responders and 23% as remitters. Participants remained significantly improved on all secondary outcomes at 12-month follow-up. Neither baseline insight nor baseline depression predicted long-term outcomes. The positive effects of CBT appear to be durable up to 12-month follow-up. However, the majority of patients remained symptomatic and vulnerable to a range of risks at 12-month follow-up, indicating that longer-term monitoring is advisable in this population. Future research should focus on enhancing the efficacy of CBT in order to improve long-term outcomes. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Phased Array Feeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. Richard; Bradley, Richard F.; Brisken, Walter F.; Cotton, William D.; Emerson, Darrel T.; Kerr, Anthony R.; Lacasse, Richard J.; Morgan, Matthew A.; Napier, Peter J.; Norrod, Roger D.; Payne, John M.; Pospieszalski, Marian W.; Symmes, Arthur; Thompson, A. Richard; Webber, John C.

2009-03-01

This white paper offers cautionary observations about the planning and development of new, large radio astronomy instruments. Complexity is a strong cost driver so every effort should be made to assign differing science requirements to different instruments and probably different sites. The appeal of shared resources is generally not realized in practice and can often be counterproductive. Instrument optimization is much more difficult with longer lists of requirements, and the development process is longer and less efficient. More complex instruments are necessarily further behind the technology state of the art because of longer development times. Including technology R&D in the construction phase of projects is a growing trend that leads to higher risks, cost overruns, schedule delays, and project de-scoping. There are no technology breakthroughs just over the horizon that will suddenly bring down the cost of collecting area. Advances come largely through careful attention to detail in the adoption of new technology provided by industry and the commercial market. Radio astronomy instrumentation has a very bright future, but a vigorous long-term R&D program not tied directly to specific projects needs to be restored, fostered, and preserved.

Large Instrument Development for Radio Astronomy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, J. Richard; Warnick, Karl F.; Jeffs, Brian D.; Norrod, Roger D.; Lockman, Felix J.; Cordes, James M.; Giovanelli, Riccardo

2009-03-01

This white paper offers cautionary observations about the planning and development of new, large radio astronomy instruments. Complexity is a strong cost driver so every effort should be made to assign differing science requirements to different instruments and probably different sites. The appeal of shared resources is generally not realized in practice and can often be counterproductive. Instrument optimization is much more difficult with longer lists of requirements, and the development process is longer and less efficient. More complex instruments are necessarily further behind the technology state of the art because of longer development times. Including technology R&D in the construction phase of projects is a growing trend that leads to higher risks, cost overruns, schedule delays, and project de-scoping. There are no technology breakthroughs just over the horizon that will suddenly bring down the cost of collecting area. Advances come largely through careful attention to detail in the adoption of new technology provided by industry and the commercial market. Radio astronomy instrumentation has a very bright future, but a vigorous long-term R&D program not tied directly to specific projects needs to be restored, fostered, and preserved.

Better informed in clinical practice - a brief overview of dental informatics.

PubMed

Reynolds, P A; Harper, J; Dunne, S

2008-03-22

Uptake of dental informatics has been hampered by technical and user issues. Innovative systems have been developed, but usability issues have affected many. Advances in technology and artificial intelligence are now producing clinically useful systems, although issues still remain with adapting computer interfaces to the dental practice working environment. A dental electronic health record has become a priority in many countries, including the UK. However, experience shows that any dental electronic health record (EHR) system cannot be subordinate to, or a subset of, a medical record. Such a future dental EHR is likely to incorporate integrated care pathways. Future best dental practice will increasingly depend on computer-based support tools, although disagreement remains about the effectiveness of current support tools. Over the longer term, future dental informatics tools will incorporate dynamic, online evidence-based medicine (EBM) tools, and promise more adaptive, patient-focused and efficient dental care with educational advantages in training.

The relationship between low-level convergence and precipitation in CMIP5 current and future climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weller, Evan; Jakob, Christian; Reeder, Michael

2017-04-01

Precipitation is often organized along coherent lines of low-level convergence, which at longer time and space scales form well-known convergence zones over the tropical oceans. Here, an automated, objective method is used to identify instantaneous low-level convergence lines in the current climate of CMIP5 models and compared with reanalysis data results. Identified convergence lines are combined with precipitation to assess the extent to which precipitation around the globe is associated with convergence in the lower troposphere. Differences between the current climate of the models and observations are diagnosed in terms of the frequency and intensity of both precipitation associated with convergence lines and that which is not. Future changes in frequency and intensity of convergence lines, and associated precipitation, are also investigated for their contribution to the simulated future changes in total precipitation.

Technology opportunities in a restructured electric industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gehl, S.

1995-12-31

This paper describes the Strategic Research & Development (SR&D) program of the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The intent of the program is to anticipate and shape the scientific and technological future of the electricity enterprise. SR&D serves those industry R&D needs that are more exploratory, precompetitive, and longer-term. To this end, SR&D seeks to anticipate technological change and, where possible, shape that change to the advantage of the electric utility enterprise and its customers. SR&D`s response to this challenge is research and development program that addresses the most probable future of the industry, but at the same time ismore » robust against alternative futures. The EPRI SR&D program is organized into several vectors, each with a mission that relates directly to one or more EPRI industry goals, which are summarized in the paper. 1 fig., 2 tabs.« less

New alternate bearing surfaces in total hip arthroplasty: A review of the current literature.

PubMed

Grieco, Preston W; Pascal, Scott; Newman, Jared M; Shah, Neil V; Stroud, Sarah G; Sheth, Neil P; Maheshwari, Aditya V

2018-01-01

As indications for total hip arthroplasty (THA) have expanded, the incidence of THA has increased among younger patients, who live longer and tend to place more strain on implants via higher activity levels. This demographical shift accentuates the importance of advancing innovation to ensure implant longevity for younger and more active patients. Future innovation, as it pertains to THA components, is likely to focus on modifying implant designs and tribology in conjunction with identification and application of newer biomaterials. By reviewing the literature for development status of various materials and novel design advancements in THA component outside of the standard highly cross-linked polyethylene, this investigation provided an update on the current and future status of design initiatives as they pertain to THA. Though the highlighted alternative bearing surfaces have shown promising in vitro and limited, yet encouraging clinical data, they lack larger and longer-term clinical trial results. Further research and innovation is warranted to identify the optimal bearing surface to most effectively accommodate for the trend of younger and more active patients undergoing THA. Implant longevity is crucial if the clinical success of THA is to be maintained.

Fires: Pushing the Reset Button or a Flash in the Pan?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

MacDonald, L. H.; Wagenbrenner, J. W.; Robichaud, P. R.; Nelson, P. A.; Kampf, S. K.; Brogan, D. J.

2016-12-01

High and moderate severity wildfires can reduce infiltration rates to less than 10 mm/hr, and the resulting surface runoff can increase small-scale peak flows by one or more orders of magnitude. Fires can increase hillslope erosion rates by several orders of magnitude, but this increase is less linear with rainfall intensity because it also depends on sediment supply and detachment processes as well as transport capacity. These localized and shorter-term effects have been relatively well documented, but there is much more uncertainty in how these fire-induced changes can lead to larger-scale and/or longer-term effects. The goal of this presentation is to provide a process-based analysis of how, where, and when wildfires can cause either longer-term or larger-scale changes, effectively resetting the system as opposed to a more transient "flash in the pan". An understanding of vegetation, climatic, and geomorphic dynamics are are critical for predicting larger-scale and longer-term effects. First is the potential for the vegetation to return to pre-fire conditions, and this depends on vegetation type, spatial extent of the fire, and if the pre-fire vegetation is marginalized by climate change, land use, or other factors. The trajectory of post-fire regrowth controls the duration of increased runoff and erosion as well as the size and severity of future fires, which then sets the scene for longer-term hydrologic and geomorphic change. Climate defines the dominant storm type and how they match up with the spatial extent of a fire. Historic data help estimate the extent and magnitude of post-fire rainfall, but there is a strong stochastic component and the more extreme events are of greatest concern. Geomorphic controls on larger-scale effects include the valley and drainage network characteristics that help govern the storage and delivery of water and sediment. Assessing each component involves multiple site factors, but the biggest problem is understanding their complex interactions to predict resource impacts, landscape change over different temporal and spatial scales, and the potential to ameliorate adverse impacts. Data from multiple field studies are used to illustrate the range of post-fire effects, selected interactions of the different components, and identify key research needs.

Evaluation of actuator energy storage and power sources for spacecraft applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, William E.; Young, Fred M.

1993-01-01

The objective of this evaluation is to determine an optimum energy storage/power source combination for electrical actuation systems for existing (Solid Rocket Booster (SRB), Shuttle) and future (Advanced Launch System (ALS), Shuttle Derivative) vehicles. Characteristic of these applications is the requirement for high power pulses (50-200 kW) for short times (milliseconds to seconds), coupled with longer-term base or 'housekeeping' requirements (5-16 kW). Specific study parameters (e.g., weight, volume, etc.) as stated in the proposal and specified in the Statement of Work (SOW) are included.

Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking Conference, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

Autonomous Rendezvous and Docking (ARD) will be a requirement for future space programs. Clear examples include satellite servicing, repair, recovery, and reboost in the near term, and the longer range lunar and planetary exploration programs. ARD will permit more aggressive unmanned space activities, while providing a valuable operational capability for manned missions. The purpose of the conference is to identify the technologies required for an on-orbit demonstration of ARD, assess the maturity of those technologies, and provide the necessary insight for a quality assessment of programmatic management, technical, schedule, and cost risks.

Understanding and quantifying foliar temperature acclimation for Earth System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N. G.; Dukes, J.

2015-12-01

Photosynthesis and respiration on land are the two largest carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and Earth's surface. The parameterization of these processes represent major uncertainties in the terrestrial component of the Earth System Models used to project future climate change. Research has shown that much of this uncertainty is due to the parameterization of the temperature responses of leaf photosynthesis and autotrophic respiration, which are typically based on short-term empirical responses. Here, we show that including longer-term responses to temperature, such as temperature acclimation, can help to reduce this uncertainty and improve model performance, leading to drastic changes in future land-atmosphere carbon feedbacks across multiple models. However, these acclimation formulations have many flaws, including an underrepresentation of many important global flora. In addition, these parameterizations were done using multiple studies that employed differing methodology. As such, we used a consistent methodology to quantify the short- and long-term temperature responses of maximum Rubisco carboxylation (Vcmax), maximum rate of Ribulos-1,5-bisphosphate regeneration (Jmax), and dark respiration (Rd) in multiple species representing each of the plant functional types used in global-scale land surface models. Short-term temperature responses of each process were measured in individuals acclimated for 7 days at one of 5 temperatures (15-35°C). The comparison of short-term curves in plants acclimated to different temperatures were used to evaluate long-term responses. Our analyses indicated that the instantaneous response of each parameter was highly sensitive to the temperature at which they were acclimated. However, we found that this sensitivity was larger in species whose leaves typically experience a greater range of temperatures over the course of their lifespan. These data indicate that models using previous acclimation formulations are likely incorrectly simulating leaf carbon exchange responses to future warming. Therefore, our data, if used to parameterize large-scale models, are likely to provide an even greater improvement in model performance, resulting in more reliable projections of future carbon-clime feedbacks.

Ising model versus normal form game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galam, Serge; Walliser, Bernard

2010-02-01

The 2-spin Ising model in statistical mechanics and the 2×2 normal form game in game theory are compared. All configurations allowed by the second are recovered by the first when the only concern is about Nash equilibria. But it holds no longer when Pareto optimum considerations are introduced as in the prisoner’s dilemma. This gap can nevertheless be filled by adding a new coupling term to the Ising model, even if that term has up to now no physical meaning. An individual complete bilinear objective function is thus found to be sufficient to reproduce all possible configurations of a 2×2 game. Using this one-to-one mapping new perspectives for future research in both fields can be envisioned.

Educational gradients in five Asian immigrant populations: Do country of origin, duration and generational status moderate the education-health relationship?

PubMed

Ro, Annie; Geronimus, Arline; Bound, John; Griffith, Derek; Gee, Gilbert

2016-12-01

Education usually shows a relationship with self-rated health such that those with highest education have the best health and those with lowest education have the worst health. We examine these educational gradients among Asian immigrants and whether they differ by country of origin, duration in the United States, and generational status. Migration theories suggest that recent immigrants from poorer countries should show a weaker relationship between education and health than US-born Whites. Acculturation theory further suggests that differences in gradients across country of origin should diminish for longer-term immigrants and the US-born and that these groups should display gradients similar to US-born Whites. We use the March Current Population Survey (2000 - 2010) to examine educational gradients in self-rated health among recent immigrants (≤ 15 years duration), longer-term immigrants (> 15 years duration), and second generation US-born Asians from China (n = 4473), India (n = 4,307), the Philippines (n = 5746), South Korea (n = 2760), and Japan (n = 1265). We find weak or non-significant educational gradients among recent Asian immigrants across the five countries of origin. There is no indication that longer-term immigrants display significant differences across educational status. Only second generation Chinese and Filipinos show significant differences by educational status. Overall, Asians show an attenuated relationship between education and self-rated health compared to US-Whites that persists over duration in the US and generational status. Our findings show shortcomings in migration and acculturation theories to explain these gradient patterns. Future research could use binational data or explore psychosocial factors to identify potential suppressors of educational gradients.

Characterization of normality of chaotic systems including prediction and detection of anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engler, Joseph John

Accurate prediction and control pervades domains such as engineering, physics, chemistry, and biology. Often, it is discovered that the systems under consideration cannot be well represented by linear, periodic nor random data. It has been shown that these systems exhibit deterministic chaos behavior. Deterministic chaos describes systems which are governed by deterministic rules but whose data appear to be random or quasi-periodic distributions. Deterministically chaotic systems characteristically exhibit sensitive dependence upon initial conditions manifested through rapid divergence of states initially close to one another. Due to this characterization, it has been deemed impossible to accurately predict future states of these systems for longer time scales. Fortunately, the deterministic nature of these systems allows for accurate short term predictions, given the dynamics of the system are well understood. This fact has been exploited in the research community and has resulted in various algorithms for short term predictions. Detection of normality in deterministically chaotic systems is critical in understanding the system sufficiently to able to predict future states. Due to the sensitivity to initial conditions, the detection of normal operational states for a deterministically chaotic system can be challenging. The addition of small perturbations to the system, which may result in bifurcation of the normal states, further complicates the problem. The detection of anomalies and prediction of future states of the chaotic system allows for greater understanding of these systems. The goal of this research is to produce methodologies for determining states of normality for deterministically chaotic systems, detection of anomalous behavior, and the more accurate prediction of future states of the system. Additionally, the ability to detect subtle system state changes is discussed. The dissertation addresses these goals by proposing new representational techniques and novel prediction methodologies. The value and efficiency of these methods are explored in various case studies. Presented is an overview of chaotic systems with examples taken from the real world. A representation schema for rapid understanding of the various states of deterministically chaotic systems is presented. This schema is then used to detect anomalies and system state changes. Additionally, a novel prediction methodology which utilizes Lyapunov exponents to facilitate longer term prediction accuracy is presented and compared with other nonlinear prediction methodologies. These novel methodologies are then demonstrated on applications such as wind energy, cyber security and classification of social networks.

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In a traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of the load forecasting technique can provide an accurate prediction of the load power that will happen in a future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during a longer time period instead of using a snapshot of the load at the time when the reconfiguration happens; thus, the distribution system operatormore » can use this information to better operate the system reconfiguration and achieve optimal solutions. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting approach to automatically reconfigure distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with a forecaster based on support vector regression and parallel parameters optimization. The network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum amount of loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

Short-Term Load Forecasting Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In the traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of load forecasting technique can provide accurate prediction of load power that will happen in future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during the longer time period instead of using the snapshot of load at the time when the reconfiguration happens, and thus it can provide information to the distribution systemmore » operator (DSO) to better operate the system reconfiguration to achieve optimal solutions. Thus, this paper proposes a short-term load forecasting based approach for automatically reconfiguring distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with support vector regression (SVR) based forecaster and parallel parameters optimization. And the network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

Short-Term Load Forecasting-Based Automatic Distribution Network Reconfiguration

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Ding, Fei; Zhang, Yingchen

In a traditional dynamic network reconfiguration study, the optimal topology is determined at every scheduled time point by using the real load data measured at that time. The development of the load forecasting technique can provide an accurate prediction of the load power that will happen in a future time and provide more information about load changes. With the inclusion of load forecasting, the optimal topology can be determined based on the predicted load conditions during a longer time period instead of using a snapshot of the load at the time when the reconfiguration happens; thus, the distribution system operatormore » can use this information to better operate the system reconfiguration and achieve optimal solutions. This paper proposes a short-term load forecasting approach to automatically reconfigure distribution systems in a dynamic and pre-event manner. Specifically, a short-term and high-resolution distribution system load forecasting approach is proposed with a forecaster based on support vector regression and parallel parameters optimization. The network reconfiguration problem is solved by using the forecasted load continuously to determine the optimal network topology with the minimum amount of loss at the future time. The simulation results validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

Recent Progress on Spherical Torus Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ono, Masayuki; Kaita, Robert

2014-01-01

The spherical torus or spherical tokamak (ST) is a member of the tokamak family with its aspect ratio (A = R0/a) reduced to A ~ 1.5, well below the normal tokamak operating range of A ≥ 2.5. As the aspect ratio is reduced, the ideal tokamak beta β (radio of plasma to magnetic pressure) stability limit increases rapidly, approximately as β ~ 1/A. The plasma current it can sustain for a given edge safety factor q-95 also increases rapidly. Because of the above, as well as the natural elongation κ, which makes its plasma shape appear spherical, the ST configurationmore » can yield exceptionally high tokamak performance in a compact geometry. Due to its compactness and high performance, the ST configuration has various near term applications, including a compact fusion neutron source with low tritium consumption, in addition to its longer term goal of attractive fusion energy power source. Since the start of the two megaampere class ST facilities in 2000, National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) in the US and Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) in UK, active ST research has been conducted worldwide. More than sixteen ST research facilities operating during this period have achieved remarkable advances in all of fusion science areas, involving fundamental fusion energy science as well as innovation. These results suggest exciting future prospects for ST research both near term and longer term. The present paper reviews the scientific progress made by the worldwide ST research community during this new mega-ampere-ST era.« less

Distress, Delay of Gratification and Preference for Palliative Care in Men with Prostate Cancer

PubMed Central

Gerhart, James; Asvat, Yasmin; Lattie, Emily; O’Mahony, Sean; Duberstein, Paul; Hoerger, Michael

2015-01-01

Patient-centered cancer care standards include routine psychosocial distress screening and referral for supportive care services. Although many cancer patients report psychosocial distress that could be alleviated by supportive services, including palliative care, patients often decline such services for reasons that are poorly understood. Research on decision-making suggests that, during periods of acute distress, individuals have more difficulty prioritizing long-term over immediate gains. Thus, distressed cancer patients may prioritize immediate gains (e.g., avoidance of palliative care discussions in the moment) over longer term gains (e.g., improved quality of life in the future). This study investigated the associations between psychosocial distress, difficulties with delay of gratification (tendency to prioritize short term over longer term gains), and preference for palliative care in a sample of 212 men with a history of prostate cancer (94% White, 27% advanced stage, age M = 62, SD = 8). It was hypothesized that psychosocial distress would be associated with lower preferences for palliative care, and this association would be explained, in part, by difficulty delaying gratification. Self-report measures included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales, Delay of Gratification Inventory, and ratings on an item assessing preferences for palliative care. Consistent with the hypothesis, mediation models confirmed that the association of psychosocial distress with lower preference for palliative care was mediated by delay of gratification. Findings suggest that distressed prostate cancer patients may benefit from additional support managing the emotional aspects of medical decisions and weighing immediate vs. delayed outcomes. PMID:25899740

Initial abstinence status and contingency management treatment outcomes: does race matter?

PubMed

Montgomery, LaTrice; Carroll, Kathleen M; Petry, Nancy M

2015-06-01

Limited research has evaluated African American substance users' response to evidence-based treatments. This study examined the efficacy of contingency management (CM) in African American and White cocaine users. A secondary analysis evaluated effects of race, treatment condition, and baseline cocaine urine sample results on treatment outcomes of African American (n = 444) and White (n = 403) cocaine abusers participating in one of six randomized clinical trials comparing CM to standard care. African American and White patients who initiated treatment with a cocaine-negative urine sample remained in treatment for similar durations and submitted a comparable proportion of negative samples during treatment regardless of treatment type; CM was efficacious in both races in terms of engendering longer durations of abstinence in patients who began treatment abstinent. Whites who began treatment with a cocaine positive sample remained in treatment longer and submitted a higher proportion of negative samples when assigned to CM than standard care. African Americans who initiated treatment with a cocaine positive sample, however, did not remain in treatment longer with CM compared with standard care, and gains in terms of drug use outcomes were muted in nature relative to Whites. This interaction effect persisted through the 9-month follow-up period. CM is not equally effective in reducing drug use among all subgroups, specifically African American patients who are using cocaine upon treatment entry. Future research on improving treatment outcomes in this population is needed. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

A Behavioral Economic Reward Index Predicts Drinking Resolutions: Moderation Re-visited and Compared with Other Outcomes

PubMed Central

Tucker, Jalie A.; Roth, David L.; Vignolo, Mary J.; Westfall, Andrew O.

2014-01-01

Data were pooled from three studies of recently resolved community-dwelling problem drinkers to determine whether a behavioral economic index of the value of rewards available over different time horizons distinguished among moderation (n = 30), abstinent (n = 95), and unresolved (n = 77) outcomes. Moderation over 1-2 year prospective follow-up intervals was hypothesized to involve longer term behavior regulation processes compared to abstinence or relapse and to be predicted by more balanced pre-resolution monetary allocations between short- and longer-term objectives (i.e., drinking and saving for the future). Standardized odds ratios (OR) based on changes in standard deviation units from a multinomial logistic regression indicated that increases on this “Alcohol-Savings Discretionary Expenditure” index predicted higher rates of both abstinence (OR = 1.93, p = .004) and relapse (OR = 2.89, p < .0001) compared to moderation outcomes. The index had incremental utility in predicting moderation in complex models that included other established predictors. The study adds to evidence supporting a behavioral economic analysis of drinking resolutions and shows that a systematic analysis of pre-resolution spending patterns aids in predicting moderation. PMID:19309182

Electronic Medical Records (EMRs), Epidemiology, and Epistemology: Reflections on EMRs and Future Pediatric Clinical Research

PubMed Central

Wasserman, Richard C.

2011-01-01

Electronic medical records (EMRs) are increasingly common in pediatric patient care. EMR data represent a relatively novel and rich resource for clinical research. The fact, however, that pediatric EMR data are collected for the purposes of clinical documentation and billing rather than research creates obstacles to their use in scientific investigation. Particular issues include accuracy, completeness, comparability between settings, ease of extraction, and context of recording. Although these problems can be addressed through standard strategies for dealing with partially accurate and incomplete data, a longer term solution will involve work with pediatric clinicians to improve data quality. As research becomes one of the explicit purposes for which pediatricians collect EMR data, the pediatric clinician will play a central role in future pediatric clinical research. PMID:21622040

Modeling aeolian transport in response to succession, disturbance and future climate: Dynamic long-term risk assessment for contaminant redistribution

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breshears, D.D.; Kirchner, T.B.; Whicker, J.J.; Field, J.P.; Allen, Craig D.

2012-01-01

Aeolian sediment transport is a fundamental process redistributing sediment, nutrients, and contaminants in dryland ecosystems. Over time frames of centuries or longer, horizontal sediment fluxes and associated rates of contaminant transport are likely to be influenced by succession, disturbances, and changes in climate, yet models of horizontal sediment transport that account for these fundamental factors are lacking, precluding in large part accurate assessment of human health risks associated with persistent soil-bound contaminants. We present a simple model based on empirical measurements of horizontal sediment transport (predominantly saltation) to predict potential contaminant transport rates for recently disturbed sites such as a landfill cover. Omnidirectional transport is estimated within vegetation that changes using a simple Markov model that simulates successional trajectory and considers three types of short-term disturbances (surface fire, crown fire, and drought-induced plant mortality) under current and projected climates. The model results highlight that movement of contaminated soil is sensitive to vegetation dynamics and increases substantially (e.g., > fivefold) when disturbance and/or future climate are considered. The time-dependent responses in horizontal sediment fluxes and associated contaminant fluxes were sensitive to variability in the timing of disturbance, with longer intervals between disturbance allowing woody plants to become dominant and crown fire and drought abruptly reducing woody plant cover. Our results, which have direct implications for contaminant transport and landfill management in the specific context of our assessment, also have general relevance because they highlight the need to more fully account for vegetation dynamics, disturbance, and changing climate in aeolian process studies.

An Evaluation of Talent 4 . . . : A Programme to Identify Talent and Skills for Prisoners, Disadvantaged, Unemployed, and Vulnerable Groups.

PubMed

McGuire-Snieckus, Rebecca; Caulfield, Laura

2017-11-01

Previous research suggests that the relationship between employment and recidivism is complex, with more support needed to facilitate employability motivation for sustained change. An arts-based programme designed to facilitate vocational self-determinism among prisoners with evidence of impact across three prisons in the United Kingdom was replicated and delivered to 234 prisoners and long-term unemployed participants from six European countries, to explore whether the findings from the previous evaluation would be replicated on a much larger scale. The research presented in this article found that supporting prisoners and the long-term unemployed to articulate employability goals had a positive effect on personal growth as well as understanding of individual strengths and weaknesses with respect to work, employment, problem solving, and thinking styles. Future research might explore the longer term impact on employment and recidivism.

The outlook for aeronautics, 1980 - 2000 - Study report. [trends affecting civil air transportation and defense

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

Trends in civil and military aviation in the period 1980-2000 are examined in terms of the role that NASA should play in aeronautical research and development during this period. Factors considered include the pattern of industry and government relationships, the character of the aircraft to be developed, and the technology advances that will be required as well as demographic, economic, and social factors. Trends are expressed in terms of the most probable developments in civil air transportation and air defense and several characteristically different directions for future development are defined. The longer term opportunities created by developments in air transporation extending into the next century are also examined. Within this framework, a preferred NASA role and a preferred set of objectives are formulated for the research and technology which should be undertaken by NASA during the period 1976-1985.

Integrated monitoring and assessment of soil restoration treatments in the Lake Tahoe Basin.

PubMed

Grismer, M E; Schnurrenberger, C; Arst, R; Hogan, M P

2009-03-01

Revegetation and soil restoration efforts, often associated with erosion control measures on disturbed soils, are rarely monitored or otherwise evaluated in terms of improved hydrologic, much less, ecologic function and longer term sustainability. As in many watersheds, sediment is a key parameter of concern in the Tahoe Basin, particularly fine sediments less than about ten microns. Numerous erosion control measures deployed in the Basin during the past several decades have under-performed, or simply failed after a few years and new soil restoration methods of erosion control are under investigation. We outline a comprehensive, integrated field-based evaluation and assessment of the hydrologic function associated with these soil restoration methods with the hypothesis that restoration of sustainable function will result in longer term erosion control benefits than that currently achieved with more commonly used surface treatment methods (e.g. straw/mulch covers and hydroseeding). The monitoring includes cover-point and ocular assessments of plant cover, species type and diversity; soil sampling for nutrient status; rainfall simulation measurement of infiltration and runoff rates; cone penetrometer measurements of soil compaction and thickness of mulch layer depths. Through multi-year hydrologic and vegetation monitoring at ten sites and 120 plots, we illustrate the results obtained from the integrated monitoring program and describe how it might guide future restoration efforts and monitoring assessments.

Sex influence on face recognition memory moderated by presentation duration and reencoding.

PubMed

Weirich, Sebastian; Hoffmann, Ferdinand; Meissner, Lucia; Heinz, Andreas; Bengner, Thomas

2011-11-01

It has been suggested that women have a better face recognition memory than men. Here we analyzed whether this advantage depends on a better encoding or consolidation of information and if the advantage is visible during short-term memory (STM), only, or whether it also remains evident in long-term memory (LTM). We tested short- and long-term face recognition memory in 36 nonclinical participants (19 women). We varied the duration of item presentation (1, 5, and 10 s), the time of testing (immediately after the study phase, 1 hr, and 24 hr later), and the possibility to reencode items (none, immediately after the study phase, after 1 hr). Women showed better overall face recognition memory than men (ηp² = .15, p < .05). We found this advantage, however, only with a longer duration of item presentation (interaction effect Sex × ηp² = .16, p < .05). Women's advantage in face recognition was visible mainly if participants had the possibility to reencode faces during former test trials. Our results suggest women do not have a better face recognition memory than men per se, but may profit more than men from longer durations of presentation during encoding or the possibility for reencoding. Future research on sex differences in face recognition memory should explicate possible causes for the better encoding of face information in women.

The future of the welfare state: crisis myths and crisis realities.

PubMed

Castles, Francis G

2002-01-01

Accounts of the future of the welfare state are often presented in crisis terms. Some commentators identify globalization as a force that has already led to a major retreat by the state and is likely to lead to further downsizing of the public sector. Others see the future burden of an aging population as creating huge public expenditure pressures that can be countered only by increased parsimony in most areas of spending. Although both crisis scenarios contain elements of truth, analysis of recent public expenditure trends shows that both are substantially exaggerated as general representations of likely developments over the next two or three decades. However, unnoticed by most commentators, a real, longer-term crisis is beginning to make itself felt. This crisis arises, in part, from the demographic impact of a cultural transformation in the labor market, in progress for several decades. Extreme scenarios of possible consequences over the next 50 to 100 years include population implosion, mass migration, increasingly dangerous eruptions of right-wing populism, and, possibly, territorial conflict between developed and underdeveloped nations. This is not a crisis of the welfare state but rather a crisis for which the welfare state may be an essential part of the answer. The only way Western societies can lessen the future impact of the ongoing cultural transformation of the labor market is through the redesign of welfare state institutions to confront these new challenges.

The future of anticoagulation management in atrial fibrillation in Europe: An assessment of today's challenges with recommendations for the future.

PubMed

Lichten, Catherine A; Castle-Clarke, Sophie; Manville, Catriona; Horvath, Veronika; Robin, Enora; Krapels, Joachim; Parks, Sarah; Sim, Megan; van Zijverden, Olga; Chataway, Joanna

2015-11-30

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common type of cardiac arrhythmia, affecting approximately 1-2 per cent of the population worldwide. Those who suffer from AF have a five times higher risk of stroke. AF prevalence increases with age and it affects roughly 18 per cent of the population over 85. Consequently, as populations age, AF is becoming an increasingly significant public health issue. Over recent years there have been developments in treatment and management options, both for treating the arrhythmia directly, and assessing and reducing the risk of AF-related stroke, but there is a need to ensure that available knowledge is applied optimally to benefit patients so that opportunities to prevent AF-related stroke are not missed. The aims of this project were to assess the current landscape and explore the direction of future developments in AF management in Europe, with a focus on the use of anticoagulants in the prevention of AF-related stroke. Through rapid evidence assessment, key informant interviews, PESTLE analysis and the development and exploration of future scenarios, we have developed sets of shorter- and longer-term recommendations for improving AF-related patient outcomes. The short-term recommendations are: i) improve AF awareness among the public and policymakers; ii) support education about AF management for healthcare professionals and patients; and iii) maintain engagement in AF-related research across the health services.

Establishing an IERS Sub-Center for Ocean Angular Momentum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ponte, Rui M.

2001-01-01

With the objective of establishing the Special Bureau for the Oceans (SBO), a new archival center for ocean angular momentum (OAM) products, we have computed and analyzed a number of OAM products from several ocean models, with and without data assimilation. All three components of OAM (axial term related to length of day variations and equatorial terms related to polar motion) have been examined in detail, in comparison to the respective Earth rotation parameters. An 11+ year time series of OAM given at 5-day intervals has been made publicly available. Other OAM products spanning longer periods and with higher temporal resolution, as well as products calculated from ocean model/data assimilation systems, have been prepared and should become part of the SBO archives in the near future.

Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Heard, Matthew S; Isaac, Nick J B; Roy, David B; Procter, Deborah; Eigenbrod, Felix; Freckleton, Rob; Hector, Andy; Orme, C David L; Petchey, Owen L; Proença, Vânia; Raffaelli, David; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M; Martín-López, Berta; Woodcock, Ben A; Bullock, James M

2015-11-01

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their 'resilience') is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding Recent Mass Balance Changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

vanderVeen, Cornelius

2003-01-01

The ultimate goal of this project is to better understand the current transfer of mass between the Greenland Ice Sheet, the world's oceans and the atmosphere, and to identify processes controlling the rate of this transfer, to be able to predict with greater confidence future contributions to global sea level rise. During the first year of this project, we focused on establishing longer-term records of change of selected outlet glaciers, reevaluation of mass input to the ice sheet and analysis of climate records derived from ice cores, and modeling meltwater production and runoff from the margins of the ice sheet.

Child health in Syria: recognising the lasting effects of warfare on health.

PubMed

Devakumar, Delan; Birch, Marion; Rubenstein, Leonard S; Osrin, David; Sondorp, Egbert; Wells, Jonathan C K

2015-01-01

The war in Syria, now in its fourth year, is one of the bloodiest in recent times. The legacy of war includes damage to the health of children that can last for decades and affect future generations. In this article we discuss the effects of the war on Syria's children, highlighting the less documented longer-term effects. In addition to their present suffering, these children, and their own children, are likely to face further challenges as a result of the current conflict. This is essential to understand both for effective interventions and for ethical reasons.

Third Conference on Fibrous Composites in Flight Vehicle Design, part 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The use of fibrous composite materials in the design of aircraft and space vehicle structures and their impact on future vehicle systems are discussed. The topics covered include: flight test work on composite components, design concepts and hardware, specialized applications, operational experience, certification and design criteria. Contributions to the design technology base include data concerning material properties, design procedures, environmental exposure effects, manufacturing procedures, and flight service reliability. By including composites as baseline design materials, significant payoffs are expected in terms of reduced structural weight fractions, longer structural life, reduced fuel consumption, reduced structural complexity, and reduced manufacturing cost.

Driving the Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haff, P. K.

2012-12-01

Technological modification of the earth's surface (e.g., agriculture, urbanization) is an old story in human history, but what about the future? The future of landscape in an accelerating technological world, beyond a relatively short time horizon, lies hidden behind an impenetrable veil of complexity. Sufficiently complex dynamics generates not only the trajectory of a variable of interest (e.g., vegetation cover) but also the environment in which that variable evolves (e.g., background climate). There is no way to anticipate what variables will define that environment—the dynamics creates its own variables. We are always open to surprise by a change of conditions we thought or assumed were fixed or by the appearance of new phenomena of whose possible existence we had been unaware or thought unlikely. This is especially true under the influence of technology, where novelty is the rule. Lack of direct long-term predictability of landscape change does not, however, mean we cannot say anything about its future. The presence of persistence (finite time scales) in a system means that prediction by a calibrated numerical model should be good for a limited period of time barring bad luck or faulty implementation. Short-term prediction, despite its limitations, provides an option for dealing with the longer-term future. If a computer-controlled car tries to drive itself from New York to Los Angeles, no conceivable (or possible) stand-alone software can be constructed to predict a priori the space-time trajectory of the vehicle. Yet the drive is normally completed easily by most drivers. The trip is successfully completed because each in a series of very short (linear) steps can be "corrected" on the fly by the driver, who takes her cues from the environment to keep the car on the road and headed toward its destination. This metaphor differs in a fundamental way from the usual notion of predicting geomorphic change, because it involves a goal—to reach a desired destination—whereas the natural evolution of landscape has no such goal. Goals will become an essential feature of landscape prediction. The presence of a goal potentially increases our ability to predict, provided it is possible to use feedback (i.e., management) to nudge the system back in the "right" direction when it starts to stray. Under a regime of accelerating technology the closest we can get to predicting the longer term future of landscape is adaptive management, which at large scale is really geoengineer the system. The goal presumably would be to maintain a condition conducive to human well-being, for example to maintain a suitable fraction of global arable land. A successful "prediction" would be to stay within an envelope of states consistent with that goal. We cannot say, however, in what specific state the landscape will be at any time beyond the near future; this will depend on the future sequence of management decisions, which are, like the system they are managing, unpredictable, except shortly before they are implemented. The landscape of the future will thus likely be the result of a series of quick fixes to previous trends in landscape change. Similar comments apply to the prediction, or management, of climate. There is of course no guarantee that it will be possible to stay within the desired envelope of well-being.

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Adult sibling experience, roles, relationships and future concerns - a review of the literature in learning disabilities.

PubMed

Davys, Deborah; Mitchell, Duncan; Haigh, Carol

2011-10-01

This paper provides a review of the literature related to adult siblings of learning-disabled people. Siblings of learning-disabled people are often looked upon as next of kin when older parents die; however, there is little research regarding sibling views and wishes. A literature review of published peer-reviewed empirical research was undertaken. Electronic databases and citation tracking were used to collate data using key terms such as adult siblings and learning disability. Relevant articles were analysed, compared and contrasted. Six key themes emerged suggesting a varied impact of learning disability upon sibling lives in areas that include life choices, relationships, identity and future plans. Some siblings report a positive impact upon life, others state their lives are comparable with other adults who do not have a learning-disabled sibling and others still report a negative impact. Sibling roles and relationships are varied. Evidence suggests that sibling roles, relationships and experience are affected by life stage. Parents often have a primary care role for the disabled person, whilst siblings perform a more distant role; however, sibling involvement often rises when parents are no longer able to provide previous levels of support. Many factors appear to affect the sibling experience and uptake of roles including gender, life stage and circumstances, level of disability, health status and relationships between family members. Siblings are concerned about the future, particularly when parents are no longer able to provide support, and many appear to have expectations of future responsibilities regarding their disabled sibling. As siblings of people who have a learning disability are often expected by society to provide support, it is important that health and social care practitioners are aware of issues that may impact on this relationship. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Endothelial Progenitor Cell Levels Predict Future Physical Function: An Exploratory Analysis From the VA Enhanced Fitness Study.

PubMed

Povsic, Thomas J; Sloane, Richard; Pieper, Carl F; Pearson, Megan P; Peterson, Eric D; Cohen, Harvey J; Morey, Miriam C

2016-03-01

Levels of circulating progenitor cells (CPCs) are depleted with aging and chronic injury and are associated with level of physical functioning; however, little is known about the correlation of CPCs with longer-term measures of physical capabilities. We sought to determine the association of CPCs with future levels of physical function and with changes in physical function over time. CPCs were measured in 117 participants with impaired glucose tolerance in the Enhanced Fitness clinical trial based on the cell surface markers CD34 and CD133 and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) activity at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Physical function was assessed using usual and rapid gait speed, 6-minute walk distance, chair stand time, and SF-36 physical functioning score and reassessed at 3 and 12 months after clinical intervention. Higher baseline levels of CD133(+), CD34(+), CD133(+)CD34(+), and ALDH(br) were each highly predictive of faster gait speed and longer distance walked in 6 minutes at both 3 and 12 months. These associations remained robust after adjustment for age, body mass index, baseline covariates, and inflammation and were independent of interventions to improve physical fitness. Further, higher CPC levels predicted greater improvements in usual and rapid gait speed over 1 year. Baseline CPC levels are associated not only with baseline mobility but also with future physical function, including changes in gait speed. These findings suggest that CPC measurement may be useful as a marker of both current and future physiologic aging and functional decline. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Violation of eating expectancies does not reduce conditioned desires for chocolate.

PubMed

van den Akker, Karolien; van den Broek, Myrr; Havermans, Remco C; Jansen, Anita

2016-05-01

Although eating desires can be easily learned, their extinction appears more difficult. The present two-session study aimed to investigate the role of eating expectancies in the short and longer-term extinction of eating desires. In addition, the relationship between eating desires and conditioned evaluations was examined to test whether they might share a similar mechanism. It was hypothesized that the short-term extinction of eating desires would be more successful after the disconfirmation of eating expectancies (instructed extinction or IE), while resulting in worse longer-term extinction because omission of the food reward during extinction is not surprising. In contrast to the hypotheses, it was found that IE had no effect on the short-term and longer-term extinction of eating desires. Eating desires correlated with conditioned evaluations only to some extent. It is concluded that eating expectancies do not mediate the short-term extinction of conditioned eating desires. In addition, their longer-term extinction does not appear to be facilitated by a greater violation of eating expectancies. This suggests that it might not be necessary to focus on expectancy violation in cue exposure therapy to reduce eating desires. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Potential Role for smallsats and Cubesats in Lunar Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, James; Fisackerly, Richard; Houdou, Bérengère; De Rosa, Diego; Schiemann, Jens D.; Walker, Roger; Zeppenfeldt, Frank

2015-04-01

The Moon is an important exploration destination for ESA, which is currently engaged in activities to access and exploit the Moon through developments in future human exploration systems and precursor robotic surface missions. However, recent major advancements in Smallsat and Cubesat technologies, and their application to fields such as Earth imaging and atmospheric science, has opened the possibility of utilising these smaller, lower cost platforms beyond LEO and potentially at the Moon. ESA is interested in understanding how emerging Smallsat & Cubesat instrument and platform technology could be applied to Lunar Exploration, particularly in the fields of technology demonstration and investigations which can be precursors to longer term l exploration activies. Lunar Cubesats can offer an means of access to the Moon, which complements larger ESA-led opportunities on international surface missions and via future human exploration systems. In this talk ESA will outline its current objectives in Lunar Exploration and highlight potential future opportunities for Smallsat and Cubesat platforms to play a role.

The cost-effectiveness of exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation: a systematic review of the characteristics and methodological quality of published literature.

PubMed

Edwards, Katherine; Jones, Natasha; Newton, Julia; Foster, Charlie; Judge, Andrew; Jackson, Kate; Arden, Nigel K; Pinedo-Villanueva, Rafael

2017-10-19

This descriptive review aimed to assess the characteristics and methodological quality of economic evaluations of cardiac rehabilitation (CR) programs according to updated economic guidelines for healthcare interventions. Recommendations will be made to inform future research addressing the impact of a physical exercise component on cost-effectiveness. Electronic databases were searched for economic evaluations of exercise-based CR programs published in English between 2000 and 2014. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement was used to review the methodological quality of included economic evaluations. Fifteen economic evaluations met the review inclusion criteria. Assessed study characteristics exhibited wide variability, particularly in their economic perspective, time horizon, setting, comparators and included costs, with significant heterogeneity in exercise dose across interventions. Ten evaluations were based on randomised controlled trials (RCTs) spanning 6-24 months but often with weak or inconclusive results; two were modelling studies; and the final three utilised longer time horizons of 3.5-5 years from which findings suggest that long-term exercise-based CR results in lower costs, reduced hospitalisations and a longer cumulative patient lifetime. None of the 15 articles met all the CHEERS quality criteria, with the majority either fully or partially meeting a selection of the assessed variables. Evidence exists supporting the cost-effectiveness of exercise-based CR for cardiovascular disease patients. However, variability in CR program delivery and weak consistency between study perspective and design limits study comparability and therefore the accumulation of evidence in support of a particular exercise regime. The generalisability of study findings was limited due to the exclusion of patients with comorbidities as would typically be found in a real-world setting. The use of longer time-horizons would be more comparable with a chronic condition and enable economic assessments of the long-term effects of CR. As none of the articles met recent reporting standards for the economic assessment of healthcare interventions, it is recommended that future studies adhere to such guidelines.

From irreversibility to participation: towards a participatory foresight for the governance of collective environmental risks.

PubMed

Faucheux, S; Hue, C

2001-09-14

This paper presents a reflection on the introduction of methods and tools of "participative foresight" for scientific and technology policy as well as environmental policy fields. Future studies have recently made a comeback under the label of foresight. Future technology studies no longer claim to forecast the future, but are presented as a strategic tool for improving interaction between key actors and for anticipatory policy making. They can be defined as a "process by which one comes to a fuller understanding of the forces shaping the long term future which should be taken into account in policy formulation, planning and decision-making" [Foresight in Federal Government Policymaking, Futures Res. Quart. (1985) 29]. We discuss applications of this approach for perspectives on environmental policy and sustainable development. Foresight opens up the possibility of negotiating a new and more fruitful relationship or 'social contract' between science and technology, on the one hand, and society on the other. The focus has moved from merely scientific and industrial insights to social demand, thus emphasizing the importance of both the production and "supply" of innovation, and the "demand" as signaled in the views of citizens.

Massed versus Spaced Practice in Vocology: Effect of a Short-Term Intensive Voice Training versus a Longer-Term Traditional Voice Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meerschman, Iris; Van Lierde, Kristiane; Van Puyvelde, Caro; Bostyn, Astrid; Claeys, Sofie; D'haeseleer, Evelien

2018-01-01

Background: In contrast with most medical and pharmaceutical therapies, the optimal dosage for voice therapy or training is unknown. Aims: The aim of this study was to compare the effect of a short-term intensive voice training (IVT) with a longer-term traditional voice training (TVT) on the vocal quality and vocal capacities of vocally healthy…

Long-term effectiveness of the SpeechEasy fluency-enhancement device.

PubMed

Gallop, Ronald F; Runyan, Charles M

2012-12-01

The SpeechEasy has been found to be an effective device for reduction of stuttering frequency for many people who stutter (PWS); published studies typically have compared stuttering reduction at initial fitting of the device to results achieved up to one year later. This study examines long-term effectiveness by examining whether effects of the SpeechEasy were maintained for longer periods, from 13 to 59 months. Results indicated no significant change for seven device users from post-fitting to the time of the study (t=-.074, p=.943); however, findings varied greatly on a case-by-case basis. Most notably, when stuttering frequency for eleven users and former users, prior to device fitting, was compared to current stuttering frequency while not wearing the device, the change over time was found to be statistically significant (t=2.851, p=.017), suggesting a carry-over effect of the device. There was no significant difference in stuttering frequency when users were wearing versus not wearing the device currently (t=1.949, p=0.92). Examinations of these results, as well as direction for future research, are described herein. The reader will be able to: (a) identify and briefly describe two types of altered auditory feedback which the SpeechEasy incorporates in order to help reduce stuttering; (b) describe the carry-over effect found in this study, suggest effectiveness associated with the device over a longer period of time than previously reported, as well as its implications, and (c) list factors that might be assessed in future research involving this device in order to more narrowly determine which prospective users are most likely to benefit from employing the SpeechEasy. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Share the Sky: Concepts and Technologies That Will Shape Future Airspace Use

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ballin, Mark G.; Cotton, William; Kopardekar, Parimal

2011-01-01

The airspace challenge for the United States is to protect national sovereignty and ensure the safety and security of those on the ground and in the air, while at the same time ensuring the efficiency of flight, reducing the costs involved, protecting the environment, and protecting the freedom of access to the airspace. Many visions of the future NAS hold a relatively near-term perspective, focusing on existing uses of the airspace and assuming that new uses will make up a small fraction of total use. In the longer term, the skies will be filled with diverse and amazing new air vehicles filling our societal needs. Anticipated new vehicles include autonomous air vehicles acting both independently and in coordinated groups, unpiloted cargo carriers, and large numbers of personal air vehicles and small-scale point-to-point transports. These vehicles will enable new capabilities that have the potential to increase societal mobility, transport freight at lower cost and with lower environmental impact, improve the study of the Earth s atmosphere and ecosystem, and increase societal safety and security by improving or drastically lowering the cost of critical services such as firefighting, emergency medical evacuation, search and rescue, border and neighborhood surveillance, and the inspection of our infrastructure. To ensure that uses of the airspace can continue to grow for the benefit of all, a new paradigm for operations is needed: equitably and safely sharing the airspace. This paper is an examination of such a vision, concentrating on the operations of all types of air vehicles and future uses of the National Airspace. Attributes of a long-term future airspace system are provided, emerging operations technologies are described, and initial steps in research and development are recommended.

Uncertainty in future water supplies from forests: hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, J. A.; Achterman, G. L.; Alexander, L. E.; Brooks, K. N.; Creed, I. F.; Ffolliott, P. F.; MacDonald, L.; Wemple, B. C.

2008-12-01

Forests account for 33 percent of the U.S. land area, process nearly two-thirds of the fresh water supply, and provide water to 40 percent of all municipalities or about 180 million people. Water supply management is becoming more difficult given the increasing demand for water, climate change, increasing development, changing forest ownership, and increasingly fragmented laws governing forest and watershed management. In 2006, the US National Research Council convened a study on the present understanding of forest hydrology, the hydrologic effects of a changing forest landscape, and research and management needs for sustaining water resources from forested landscapes. The committee concluded that while it is possible to generate short-term water yield increases by timber harvesting, there are a variety of reasons why active forest management has only limited potential to sustainably increase water supplies. These include the short-term nature of the increases in most environments, the timing of the increases, the need for downstream storage, and that continuing ground- based timber harvest can reduce water quality. At the same time, past and continuing changes in forest structure and management may be altering water supplies at the larger time and space scales that are of most interest to forest and water managers. These changes include the legacy of past forest management practices, particularly fire suppression and clearcutting; exurban sprawl, which permanently converts forest land to nonforest uses; effects of climate change on wildfires, insect outbreaks, forest structure, forest species composition, snowpack depth and snowmelt; road networks; and changes in forest land ownership. All of these changes have the potential to alter water quantity and quality from forests. Hence, the baseline conditions that have been used to estimate sustained water yields from forested watersheds may no longer be applicable. Stationarity also can no longer be assumed for the long-term control watersheds that have served as the cornerstone for most watershed-scale forest hydrology studies. The net result is that forest and water managers are facing greater uncertainty about future water supplies, water quality, and aquatic ecosystems, and their planning must consider a broader range of future scenarios than in the past. In this presentation, we outline a way forward for the research community to address the challenging questions of the future related to forests and water, and we chart a path for the involvement of various stakeholder groups to engage in water resources research, monitoring and policy formation.

Olfactory neuroblastoma: 14-year experience at an Australian tertiary centre and the role for longer-term surveillance.

PubMed

Schmidt, C; Potter, N; Porceddu, S; Panizza, B

2017-07-01

Olfactory neuroblastoma is a rare sinonasal malignancy, with poorly defined treatment protocols. Management at a tertiary centre was retrospectively evaluated to inform future treatment and follow up. Cases treated with curative intent (2000-2014) were included. Data were collected, and overall and disease-free survival rates were calculated. Eleven cases were identified, with a median follow up of 87 months. One patient was Kadish stage A, one was stage B, eight were stage C and one was stage D. The latter patient underwent chemoradiotherapy alone. The remaining patients proceeded to: endoscopic-assisted wide local excision (n = 2), anterior craniofacial resection (n = 4) or endoscopic craniofacial resection (n = 4). No patients had primary nodal disease or elective neck treatment. One patient had neoadjuvant chemoradiation. Six patients had post-operative radiotherapy; three received adjuvant chemotherapy. Two patients had late cervical node failure, and proceeded to neck dissection and post-operative radiotherapy. Two patients had late local recurrence. Ten-year overall and disease-free survival rates were 68.2 and 46.7 per cent, respectively. Longer-term follow up is supported given the incidence of late regional and local recurrence. Prophylactic treatment of cervical nodes in locally advanced disease is an area for further investigation.

Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction - a Future Earth KAN initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus

2017-04-01

The topic of Extreme Events in the context of global environmental change is both a scientifically challenging and exciting topic, and of very high societal relevance. The Future Earth Cluster initiative E3S organized in 2016 a cross-community/co-design workshop on Extreme Events and Environments from Climate to Society (http://www.e3s-future-earth.eu/index.php/ConferencesEvents/ConferencesAmpEvents). Based on the results, co-design research strategies and established network of the workshop, and previous activities, E3S is thriving to establish the basis for a longer-term research effort under the umbrella of Future Earth. These led to an initiative for a Future Earth Knowledge Action Network on Extreme Events and Disaster Risk Reduction. Example initial key question in this context include: What are meaningful indices to describe and quantify impact-relevant (e.g. climate) extremes? Which system properties yield resistance and resilience to extreme conditions? What are the key interactions between global urbanization processes, extreme events, and social and infrastructure vulnerability and resilience? The long-term goal of this KAN is to contribute to enhancing the resistance, resilience, and adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems across spatial, temporal and institutional scales, in particular in the light of hazards affected by ongoing environmental change (e.g. climate change, global urbanization and land use/land cover change). This can be achieved by enhanced understanding, prediction, improved and open data and knowledge bases for detection and early warning decision making, and by new insights on natural and societal conditions and governance for resilience and adaptive capacity.

The visual and functional impacts of astigmatism and its clinical management.

PubMed

Read, Scott A; Vincent, Stephen J; Collins, Michael J

2014-05-01

To provide a comprehensive overview of research examining the impact of astigmatism on clinical and functional measures of vision, the short and longer term adaptations to astigmatism that occur in the visual system, and the currently available clinical options for the management of patients with astigmatism. The presence of astigmatism can lead to substantial reductions in visual performance in a variety of clinical vision measures and functional visual tasks. Recent evidence demonstrates that astigmatic blur results in short-term adaptations in the visual system that appear to reduce the perceived impact of astigmatism on vision. In the longer term, uncorrected astigmatism in childhood can also significantly impact on visual development, resulting in amblyopia. Astigmatism is also associated with the development of spherical refractive errors. Although the clinical correction of small magnitudes of astigmatism is relatively straightforward, the precise, reliable correction of astigmatism (particularly high astigmatism) can be challenging. A wide variety of refractive corrections are now available for the patient with astigmatism, including spectacle, contact lens and surgical options. Astigmatism is one of the most common refractive errors managed in clinical ophthalmic practice. The significant visual and functional impacts of astigmatism emphasise the importance of its reliable clinical management. With continued improvements in ocular measurement techniques and developments in a range of different refractive correction technologies, the future promises the potential for more precise and comprehensive correction options for astigmatic patients. © 2014 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2014 The College of Optometrists.

Innovation in health economic modelling of service improvements for longer-term depression: demonstration in a local health community.

PubMed

Tosh, Jonathan; Kearns, Ben; Brennan, Alan; Parry, Glenys; Ricketts, Thomas; Saxon, David; Kilgarriff-Foster, Alexis; Thake, Anna; Chambers, Eleni; Hutten, Rebecca

2013-04-26

The purpose of the analysis was to develop a health economic model to estimate the costs and health benefits of alternative National Health Service (NHS) service configurations for people with longer-term depression. Modelling methods were used to develop a conceptual and health economic model of the current configuration of services in Sheffield, England for people with longer-term depression. Data and assumptions were synthesised to estimate cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Three service changes were developed and resulted in increased QALYs at increased cost. Versus current care, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a self-referral service was £11,378 per QALY. The ICER was £2,227 per QALY for the dropout reduction service and £223 per QALY for an increase in non-therapy services. These results were robust when compared to current cost-effectiveness thresholds and accounting for uncertainty. Cost-effective service improvements for longer-term depression have been identified. Also identified were limitations of the current evidence for the long term impact of services.

Using a Bayesian network to predict barrier island geomorphologic characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Thieler, E. Robert; Turecek, Aaron

2015-01-01

Quantifying geomorphic variability of coastal environments is important for understanding and describing the vulnerability of coastal topography, infrastructure, and ecosystems to future storms and sea level rise. Here we use a Bayesian network (BN) to test the importance of multiple interactions between barrier island geomorphic variables. This approach models complex interactions and handles uncertainty, which is intrinsic to future sea level rise, storminess, or anthropogenic processes (e.g., beach nourishment and other forms of coastal management). The BN was developed and tested at Assateague Island, Maryland/Virginia, USA, a barrier island with sufficient geomorphic and temporal variability to evaluate our approach. We tested the ability to predict dune height, beach width, and beach height variables using inputs that included longer-term, larger-scale, or external variables (historical shoreline change rates, distances to inlets, barrier width, mean barrier elevation, and anthropogenic modification). Data sets from three different years spanning nearly a decade sampled substantial temporal variability and serve as a proxy for analysis of future conditions. We show that distinct geomorphic conditions are associated with different long-term shoreline change rates and that the most skillful predictions of dune height, beach width, and beach height depend on including multiple input variables simultaneously. The predictive relationships are robust to variations in the amount of input data and to variations in model complexity. The resulting model can be used to evaluate scenarios related to coastal management plans and/or future scenarios where shoreline change rates may differ from those observed historically.

Consideration of future safety consequences: a new predictor of employee safety.

PubMed

Probst, Tahira M; Graso, Maja; Estrada, Armando X; Greer, Sarah

2013-06-01

Compliance with safety behaviors is often associated with longer term benefits, but may require some short-term sacrifices. This study examines the extent to which consideration of future safety consequences (CFSC) predicts employee safety outcomes. Two field studies were conducted to evaluate the reliability and validity of the newly developed Consideration of Future Safety Consequences (CFSC) scale. Surveys containing the CFSC scale and other measures of safety attitudes, behaviors, and outcomes were administered during working hours to a sample of 128 pulp and paper mill employees; after revising the CFSC scale based on these initial results, follow-up survey data were collected in a second sample of 212 copper miners. In Study I, CFSC was predictive of employee safety knowledge and motivation, compliance, safety citizenship behaviors, accident reporting attitudes and behaviors, and workplace injuries - even after accounting for conscientiousness and demographic variables. Moreover, the effects of CFSC on the variables generally appear to be direct, as opposed to mediated by safety knowledge or motivation. These findings were largely replicated in Study II. CFSC appears to be an important personality construct that may predict those individuals who are more likely to comply with safety rules and have more positive safety outcomes. Future research should examine the longitudinal stability of CFSC to determine the extent to which this construct is a stable trait, rather than a safety attitude amenable to change over time or following an intervention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of drug-related cues on response inhibition through abstinence: A pilot study in male heroin abstainers.

PubMed

Su, Bobo; Yang, Ling; Wang, Grace Y; Wang, Sha; Li, Shaomei; Cao, Hua; Zhang, Yan

2017-11-01

Chronic heroin use can cause a deficit of inhibitory function, leading to a loss of control over drug use. Exposure to drug-related cues is considered as one of the contributing factors. However, it is unclear whether there are dynamic changes on the effect of drug-related cues on response inhibition following prolonged abstinence. The present study investigated the effect of drug-related cues on response inhibition in heroin abstainers at different abstinent phases. 26 shorter-term (2-6 months) and 26 longer-term (19-24 months) male heroin abstainers performed on a modified two-choice Oddball task, which included two conditions: in the cued condition, neutral pictures served as the background of standard stimuli (yellow frame) and heroin-related pictures served as the background of deviant stimuli (blue frame), reversed in the controlled conditions. Compared to longer-term abstainers, mean reaction time (RT) for drug deviants in shorter-term abstainers was significantly longer. Shorter-term abstainers also showed markedly slower response to neutral deviants relative to drug deviants, but this tendency was not observed in longer-term abstainers. Nevertheless, both groups had similar RT for standard stimuli regardless of their paired background pictures. Effect of drug-related cues on response inhibition remains at the early stage of abstinence; however, this effect may be reduced following a longer period of drug abstinence. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing and improving the ability of inhibiting drug-related cue reactivity during treatment.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenning, B.D.

1994-12-31

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisionsmore » are being contemplated.« less

Finger Injuries in Football and Rugby.

PubMed

Elzinga, Kate E; Chung, Kevin C

2017-02-01

Football and rugby athletes are at increased risk of finger injuries given the full-contact nature of these sports. Some players may return to play early with protective taping, splinting, and casting. Others require a longer rehabilitation period and prolonged time away from the field. The treating hand surgeon must weigh the benefits of early return to play for the current season and future playing career against the risks of reinjury and long-term morbidity, including post-traumatic arthritis and decreased range of motion and strength. Each player must be comprehensively assessed and managed with an individualized treatment plan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimum Sensors Integration for Multi-Sensor Multi-Target Environment for Ballistic Missile Defense Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Imam, Neena; Barhen, Jacob; Glover, Charles Wayne

2012-01-01

Multi-sensor networks may face resource limitations in a dynamically evolving multiple target tracking scenario. It is necessary to task the sensors efficiently so that the overall system performance is maximized within the system constraints. The central sensor resource manager may control the sensors to meet objective functions that are formulated to meet system goals such as minimization of track loss, maximization of probability of target detection, and minimization of track error. This paper discusses the variety of techniques that may be utilized to optimize sensor performance for either near term gain or future reward over a longer time horizon.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenning, B. D.

1995-01-01

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Wet, Dry, Dim, or Bright? The Future of Water Resources in North Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brikowski, T. H.

2009-12-01

Future water resource availability in North Texas (Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex) is likely to be limited by the combined impact of decadal-scale and longer term climate changes. Two decadal precipitation anomalies are statistically distinguishable in the historical record (dry/wet, Table 1). These correspond temporally with the onset of global dimming/brightening events (hydrologic cycle retardation/acceleration) respectively (Table 1). Surface water hydrologic parameters are variably correlated with these events, depending on the degree of time-integration of each process. Precipitation correlates most strongly with the decadal anomalies. Runoff changes during these periods were magnified relative to precipitation changes, presumably an effect of soil moisture changes, and over the basin as a whole correlate best with the global events. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) attempts to capture such effects, and also correlates most strongly with the global events. The most important time-integrators of the system, reservoirs, show mixed correlation in terms of total storage with the decadal and longer term climate periods. Reservoir flood releases (excess storage) correlate with decadal precipitation anomalies, in part reflecting short-term consumption influences. Major reservoirs in the area post-date the dry period, precluding direct evaluation of sustainability from historical records. Historical correlations versus PDSI can be combined with climate-model based PDSI projections to evaluate future sustainability. Climate projections based on a mean of 19 IPCC intermediate scenario (SRESa1b) models indicate an approximately 10% reduction in mean annual precipitation, and warming of 2oC by 2050 in this region. Steady lowering of mean annual PDSI results, with a 50% probability that annual PDSI will average -0.5 by 2050. Average climate will move from humid (Aridity Index=35) to semi-humid (AI=27), and runoff can be expected to decline accordingly. Probability of a continuous two-year drought, historically sufficient to trigger Stage 3 drought restrictions, more than doubles to 15%/yr by 2050. Based on least-squares fit of historical PDSI and streamflow, median predicted watershed runoff declines by 23%. This reduction brings projected reservoir input to approximately the same value as current annual consumption from those reservoirs. These projected reservoir inflow changes would limit water supply sustainability in North Texas. Inflow declines are similar whether caused by recurrence of observed decadal precipitation variations or long term climate change. The magnitude of these declines (20%) is similar to projected shortfalls based only on population growth by 2050. Evidently both a serious conservation program and currently planned water importation projects will be required to maintain water supply in North Texas.Table 1: Departures from mean and probability that change is random for indicated climate periods

Antiangiogenic Therapy for Glioblastoma: Current Status and Future Prospects

PubMed Central

Batchelor, Tracy T.; Reardon, David A.; de Groot, John F.; Wick, Wolfgang; Weller, Michael

2014-01-01

Glioblastoma is characterized by high expression levels of pro-angiogenic cytokines and microvascular proliferation, highlighting the potential value of treatments targeting angiogenesis. Antiangiogenic treatment likely achieves a beneficial impact through multiple mechanisms of action. Ultimately, however, alternative pro-angiogenic signal transduction pathways are activated leading to the development of resistance, even in tumors that initially respond. The identification of biomarkers or imaging parameters to predict response and to herald resistance is of high priority. Despite promising phase 2 clinical trial results and patient benefit in terms of clinical improvement and longer progression-free survival, an overall survival benefit has not been demonstrated in 4 randomized phase 3 trials of bevacizumab or cilengitide in newly diagnosed glioblastoma or cediranib or enzastaurin recurrent glioblastoma. However, future studies are warranted: predictive markers may allow appropriate patient enrichment, combination with chemotherapy may ultimately prove successful in improving overall survival, and novel agents targeting multiple pro-angiogenic pathways may prove effective. PMID:25398844

Persistent Identifiers Implementation in EOSDIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramapriyan, H. K. " Rama"

2016-01-01

This presentation provides the motivation for and status of implementation of persistent identifiers in NASA's Earth Observation System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The motivation is provided from the point of view of long-term preservation of datasets such that a number of questions raised by current and future users can be answered easily and precisely. A number of artifacts need to be preserved along with datasets to make this possible, especially when the authors of datasets are no longer available to address users questions. The artifacts and datasets need to be uniquely and persistently identified and linked with each other for full traceability, understandability and scientific reproducibility. Current work in the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project and the Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs) in assigning Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) is discussed as well as challenges that remain to be addressed in the future.

Workshop: Theory an Applications of Coupled Cell Networks

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-03-22

physical location and environment and the scientific inter- actions with the longer term participants in the PFD programme. Furthermore, the Institute...in generating a tangible air of excitement about the challenges posed by coupled cell systems, both in terms of the mathematical questions, and in the...longer term visitors interacted with the workshop participants, and by focusing on a slightly different collection of themes, the workshop participants

Multiple stressors in Southern Africa: the link between HIV/AIDS, food insecurity, poverty and children's vulnerability now and in the future

PubMed Central

Drimie, Scott; Casale, Marisa

2009-01-01

Several countries in Southern Africa now see large numbers of their population barely subsisting at poverty levels in years without shocks, and highly vulnerable to the vagaries of the weather, the economy and government policy. The combination of HIV/AIDS, food insecurity and a weakened capacity for governments to deliver basic social services has led to the region experiencing an acute phase of a long-term emergency. “Vulnerability” is a term commonly used by scientists and practitioners to describe these deteriorating conditions. There is particular concern about the “vulnerability” of children in this context and implications for children's future security. Through a review of literature and recent case studies, and using a widely accepted conceptualisation of vulnerability as a lens, we reflect on what the regional livelihoods crisis could mean for children's future wellbeing. We argue that an increase in factors determining the vulnerability of households — both through greater intensity and frequency of shocks and stresses (“external” vulnerability) and undermined resilience or ability to cope (“internal” vulnerability) — are threatening not only current welfare of children, but also their longer-term security. The two specific pathways we explore are (1) erosive coping strategies employed by families and individuals; and (2) their inability to plan for the future. We conclude that understanding and responding to this crisis requires looking at the complexity of these multiple stressors, to try to comprehend their interconnections and causal links. Policy and programme responses have, to date, largely failed to take into account the complex and multi-dimensional nature of this crisis. There is a misfit between the problem and the institutional response, as responses from national and international players have remained relatively static. Decisive, well-informed and holistic interventions are needed to break the potential negative cycle that threatens the future security of Southern Africa's children. PMID:22380976

An international surgical exchange program for children with cleft lip/cleft palate in Manaus, Brazil: patient and family expectations of outcome.

PubMed

Reeve, Mary-Elizabeth; Groce, Nora E; Persing, John A; Magge, Sheela N

2004-01-01

Increasingly, surgeons are traveling from the developed to the developing world to volunteer their services. They can often make an enormous difference in the lives of patients they serve, but they must understand that these patients exist in a sociocultural matrix in which the meaning of the condition they have and the future they face are determined by a host of factors over and above the specific surgery itself. This means that programs in which teams quickly go in and out of a country must take into account and plan for longer term follow-up by colleagues within that country as well as develop and target rehabilitation services and educational messages to ensure maximum benefits from the intervention performed. This study examines the long-term implications of a short-term surgical team intervention for pediatric patients with cleft lip/cleft palate and their families in the Amazon region of Brazil.

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework.

PubMed

Lawther, Peter M

2016-07-01

Contemporary responses to facilitate long-term recovery from large-scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post-disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer-term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case-study results, other long-term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post-disaster interventions. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

I like the old stuff better than the new stuff? Subjective experiences of new psychoactive substances.

PubMed

Matthews, Allison; Sutherland, Rachel; Peacock, Amy; Van Buskirk, Joe; Whittaker, Elizabeth; Burns, Lucinda; Bruno, Raimondo

2017-02-01

Over the past decade, monitoring systems have identified the rapid emergence of new psychoactive substances (NPS). While the use of many NPS is minimal and transitory, little is known about which products have potential for capturing the attention of significant proportions of the drug consuming market. The aim of this study was to explore self-reported experiences of three commonly used NPS classes within the Australian context (synthetic cathinones, hallucinogenic phenethylamines and hallucinogenic tryptamines) relative to traditional illicit drug counterparts. Frequent psychostimulant consumers interviewed for the Australian Ecstasy and related Drugs Reporting System (EDRS) (n=1208) provided subjective ratings of the pleasurable and negative (acute and longer-term) effects of substances used in the last six months on the last occasion of use, and the likelihood of future use. Stimulant-type NPS (e.g., mephedrone, methylone) were rated less favourably than ecstasy and cocaine in terms of pleasurable effects and likelihood of future use. DMT (a hallucinogenic tryptamine) showed a similar profile to LSD in terms of pleasurable effects and the likelihood of future use, but negative effects (acute and comedown) were rated lower. Hallucinogenic phenethylamines (e.g., 2C-B) showed a similar negative profile to LSD, but were rated as less pleasurable and less likely to be used again. The potential for expanded use of stimulant-type NPS may be lower compared to commonly used stimulants such as ecstasy and cocaine. In contrast, the potential of DMT may be higher relative to LSD given the comparative absence of negative effects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thrombopoietin treatment of one graft in a double cord blood transplant provides early platelet recovery while contributing to long-term engraftment in NSG mice.

PubMed

van der Garde, Mark; van Hensbergen, Yvette; Brand, Anneke; Slot, Manon C; de Graaf-Dijkstra, Alice; Mulder, Arend; Watt, Suzanne M; Zwaginga, Jaap Jan

2015-01-01

Human cord blood (CB) hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) transplants demonstrate delayed early neutrophil and platelet recovery and delayed longer term immune reconstitution compared to bone marrow and mobilized peripheral blood transplants. Despite advances in enhancing early neutrophil engraftment, platelet recovery after CB transplantation is not significantly altered when compared to contemporaneous controls. Recent studies have identified a platelet-biased murine HSC subset, maintained by thrombopoietin (TPO), which has enhanced capacity for short- and long-term platelet reconstitution, can self-renew, and can give rise to myeloid- and lymphoid-biased HSCs. In previous studies, we have shown that transplantation of human CB CD34(+) cells precultured in TPO as a single graft accelerates early platelet recovery as well as yielding long-term repopulation in immune-deficient mice. In this study, using a double CB murine transplant model, we investigated whether TPO cultured human CB CD34(+) cells have a competitive advantage or disadvantage over untreated human CB CD34(+) cells in terms of (1) short-term and longer term platelet recovery and (2) longer term hematological recovery. Our studies demonstrate that the TPO treated graft shows accelerated early platelet recovery without impairing the platelet engraftment of untreated CD34(+) cells. Notably, this was followed by a dominant contribution to platelet production through the untreated CD34(+) cell graft over the intermediate to longer term. Furthermore, although the contribution of the TPO treated graft to long-term hematological engraftment was reduced, the TPO treated and untreated grafts both contributed significantly to long-term chimerism in vivo.

Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation explains ENSO climatic resonances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruun, John T.; Allen, J. Icarus; Smyth, Timothy J.

2017-08-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) nonlinear oscillator phenomenon has a far reaching influence on the climate and human activities. The up to 10 year quasi-period cycle of the El Niño and subsequent La Niña is known to be dominated in the tropics by nonlinear physical interaction of wind with the equatorial waveguide in the Pacific. Long-term cyclic phenomena do not feature in the current theory of the ENSO process. We update the theory by assessing low (>10 years) and high (<10 years) frequency coupling using evidence across tropical, extratropical, and Pacific basin scales. We analyze observations and model simulations with a highly accurate method called Dominant Frequency State Analysis (DFSA) to provide evidence of stable ENSO features. The observational data sets of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Pacific Index Anomaly, and ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly, as well as a theoretical model all confirm the existence of long-term and short-term climatic cycles of the ENSO process with resonance frequencies of {2.5, 3.8, 5, 12-14, 61-75, 180} years. This fundamental result shows long-term and short-term signal coupling with mode locking across the dominant ENSO dynamics. These dominant oscillation frequency dynamics, defined as ENSO frequency states, contain a stable attractor with three frequencies in resonance allowing us to coin the term Heartbeat of the Southern Oscillation due to its characteristic shape. We predict future ENSO states based on a stable hysteresis scenario of short-term and long-term ENSO oscillations over the next century.