Can somatosensory and visual evoked potentials predict neurological outcome during targeted temperature management in post cardiac arrest patients?

PubMed

Choi, Seung Pill; Park, Kyu Nam; Wee, Jung Hee; Park, Jeong Ho; Youn, Chun Song; Kim, Han Joon; Oh, Sang Hoon; Oh, Yoon Sang; Kim, Soo Hyun; Oh, Joo Suk

2017-10-01

In cardiac arrest patients treated with targeted temperature management (TTM), it is not certain if somatosensory evoked potentials (SEPs) and visual evoked potentials (VEPs) can predict neurological outcomes during TTM. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of SEPs and VEPs during TTM and after rewarming. This retrospective cohort study included comatose patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest and treated with TTM between March 2007 and July 2015. SEPs and VEPs were recorded during TTM and after rewarming in these patients. Neurological outcome was assessed at discharge by the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) Scale. In total, 115 patients were included. A total of 175 SEPs and 150 VEPs were performed. Five SEPs during treated with TTM and nine SEPs after rewarming were excluded from outcome prediction by SEPs due to an indeterminable N20 response because of technical error. Using 80 SEPs and 85 VEPs during treated with TTM, absent SEPs yielded a sensitivity of 58% and a specificity of 100% for poor outcome (CPC 3-5), and absent VEPs predicted poor neurological outcome with a sensitivity of 44% and a specificity of 96%. The AUC of combination of SEPs and VEPs was superior to either test alone (0.788 for absent SEPs and 0.713 for absent VEPs compared with 0.838 for the combination). After rewarming, absent SEPs and absent VEPs predicted poor neurological outcome with a specificity of 100%. When SEPs and VEPs were combined, VEPs slightly increased the prognostic accuracy of SEPs alone. Although one patient with absent VEP during treated with TTM had a good neurological outcome, none of the patients with good neurological outcome had an absent VEP after rewarming. Absent SEPs could predict poor neurological outcome during TTM as well as after rewarming. Absent VEPs may predict poor neurological outcome in both periods and VEPs may provide additional prognostic value in outcome prediction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Poor Gait Performance and Prediction of Dementia: Results From a Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Beauchet, Olivier; Annweiler, Cédric; Callisaya, Michele L; De Cock, Anne-Marie; Helbostad, Jorunn L; Kressig, Reto W; Srikanth, Velandai; Steinmetz, Jean-Paul; Blumen, Helena M; Verghese, Joe; Allali, Gilles

2016-06-01

Poor gait performance predicts risk of developing dementia. No structured critical evaluation has been conducted to study this association yet. The aim of this meta-analysis was to systematically examine the association of poor gait performance with incidence of dementia. An English and French Medline search was conducted in June 2015, with no limit of date, using the medical subject headings terms "Gait" OR "Gait Disorders, Neurologic" OR "Gait Apraxia" OR "Gait Ataxia" AND "Dementia" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia" OR "Dementia, Multi-Infarct" OR "Dementia, Vascular" OR "Alzheimer Disease" OR "Lewy Body Disease" OR "Frontotemporal Dementia With Motor Neuron Disease" (Supplementary Concept). Poor gait performance was defined by standardized tests of walking, and dementia was diagnosed according to international consensus criteria. Four etiologies of dementia were identified: any dementia, Alzheimer disease (AD), vascular dementia (VaD), and non-AD (ie, pooling VaD, mixed dementias, and other dementias). Fixed effects meta-analyses were performed on the estimates in order to generate summary values. Of the 796 identified abstracts, 12 (1.5%) were included in this systematic review and meta-analysis. Poor gait performance predicted dementia [pooled hazard ratio (HR) combined with relative risk and odds ratio = 1.53 with P < .001 for any dementia, pooled HR = 1.79 with P < .001 for VaD, HR = 1.89 with P value < .001 for non-AD]. Findings were weaker for predicting AD (HR = 1.03 with P value = .004). This meta-analysis provides evidence that poor gait performance predicts dementia. This association depends on the type of dementia; poor gait performance is a stronger predictor of non-AD dementias than AD. Copyright © 2016 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Income gains predict cognitive functioning longitudinally throughout later childhood in poor children.

PubMed

Raffington, Laurel; Prindle, John J; Shing, Yee Lee

2018-04-26

Alleviating disadvantage in low-income environments predicts higher cognitive abilities during early childhood. It is less established whether family income continues to predict cognitive growth in later childhood or whether there may even be bidirectional dynamics. Notably, living in poverty may moderate income-cognition dynamics. In this study, we investigated longitudinal dynamics over 7 waves of data collection from 1,168 children between the ages of 4.6 and 12 years, 226 (19%) of whom lived in poverty in at least 1 wave, as part of the NICHD Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development. Two sets of dual change-score models evaluated, first, whether a score predicted change from that wave to the next and, second, whether change from 1 wave to the next predicted the following score. As previous comparisons have documented, poor children had substantially lower average starting points and cognitive growth slopes through later childhood. The first set of models showed that income scores did not predict cognitive change. In reverse, child cognitive scores positively predicted income change. We speculated that parents may reduce their work investment, thus reducing income gains, when their children fall behind. Second, income changes continued to positively predict higher cognitive scores at the following wave for poor children only, which suggests that income gains and losses continue to be a leading indicator in time of poor children's cognitive performance in later childhood. This study underlined the need to look at changes in income, allow for poverty moderation, and explore bidirectional income-cognition dynamics in middle childhood. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Added value of delayed computed tomography angiography in primary intracranial hemorrhage and hematoma size for predicting spot sign.

PubMed

Wu, Te Chang; Chen, Tai Yuan; Shiue, Yow Ling; Chen, Jeon Hor; Hsieh, Tsyh-Jyi; Ko, Ching Chung; Lin, Ching Po

2018-04-01

Background The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign represents active contrast extravasation within acute primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and is an independent predictor of hematoma expansion (HE) and poor clinical outcomes. The spot sign could be detected on first-pass CTA (fpCTA) or delayed CTA (dCTA). Purpose To investigate the additional benefits of dCTA spot sign in primary ICH and hematoma size for predicting spot sign. Material and Methods This is a retrospective study of 100 patients who underwent non-contrast CT (NCCT) and CTA within 24 h of onset of primary ICH. The presence of spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA, and hematoma size on NCCT were recorded. The spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes (mRS ≥ 4) are calculated. The hematoma size for prediction of CTA spot sign was also analyzed. Results Only the spot sign on dCTA could predict high risk of significant HE and poor clinical outcomes as on fpCTA ( P < 0.05). With dCTA, there is increased sensitivity and negative predictive value (NPV) for predicting significant HE, in-hospital mortality, and poor clinical outcomes. The XY value (product of the two maximum perpendicular axial dimensions) is the best predictor (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.82) for predicting spot sign on fpCTA or dCTA in the absence of intraventricular and subarachnoid hemorrhage. Conclusion This study clarifies that dCTA imaging could improve predictive performance of CTA in primary ICH. Furthermore, the XY value is the best predictor for CTA spot sign.

Is decision-making ability related to food choice and facets of eating behaviour in adolescents?

PubMed

Macchi, Rosemarie; MacKew, Laura; Davis, Caroline

2017-09-01

To test the prediction that poor decision-making would predict poor eating-related behaviours, which in turn would relate to elevated body mass index (BMI) percentile. Associations among decision-making ability, eating behaviours, and BMI percentile were examined in a sample of 311 healthy male and female adolescents, aged 14-18 years. Structural equation modelling was used to test the proposed relationships. The predicted model was a good fit to the data and all paths between latent and indicator variables were significant. Impulsive responding significantly predicted poor food choice and overeating. No significant relationships emerged between eating-related variables and BMI percentile. Findings from this study extend the existing research in adults and offer a more comprehensive understanding of factors that may contribute to eating behaviours and weight status in teenagers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elevated platelet count as predictor of recurrence in rectal cancer patients undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery.

PubMed

Toiyama, Yuji; Inoue, Yasuhiro; Kawamura, Mikio; Kawamoto, Aya; Okugawa, Yoshinaga; Hiro, Jyunichiro; Saigusa, Susumu; Tanaka, Koji; Mohri, Yasuhiko; Kusunoki, Masato

2015-02-01

The impact of systemic inflammatory response (SIR) on prognostic and predictive outcome in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) has not been fully investigated. This retrospective study enrolled 89 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent neoadjuvant CRT and for whom platelet (PLT) counts and SIR status [neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR)] were available. Both clinical values of PLT and SIR status in rectal cancer patients were investigated. Elevated PLT, NLR, PLR, and pathologic TNM stage III [ypN(+)] were associated with significantly poor overall survival (OS). Elevated PLT, NLR, and ypN(+) were shown to independently predict OS. Elevated PLT and ypN(+) significantly predicted poor disease-free survival (DFS). Elevated PLT was identified as the only independent predictor of DFS. PLT counts are a promising pre-CRT biomarker for predicting recurrence and poor prognosis in rectal cancer.

Poverty and behavior problems trajectories from 1.5 to 8 years of age: Is the gap widening between poor and non-poor children?

PubMed

Mazza, Julia Rachel S E; Boivin, Michel; Tremblay, Richard E; Michel, Gregory; Salla, Julie; Lambert, Jean; Zunzunegui, Maria Victoria; Côté, Sylvana M

2016-08-01

Poverty has been associated with high levels of behavior problems across childhood, yet patterns of associations over time remain understudied. This study aims: (a) to examine whether poverty predicts changes in behavior problems between 1.5 and 8 years of age; (b) to estimate potential selection bias for the observed associations. We used the 1998-2006 waves of the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Child Development (N = 2120). Main outcomes were maternal ratings of hyperactivity, opposition and physical aggression from 1.5 to 8 years of age. Linear mixed-effects models were used to assess the longitudinal association between poverty and behavior problems. Models were re-estimated adjusting for wave nonresponse and using multiple imputation to account for attrition. Poverty predicted higher levels of behavior problems between 1.5 and 8 years of age. Poverty predicted hyperactivity and opposition in a time dependent manner. Hyperactivity [Bpoverty*age = 0.052; CI 95 % (0.002; 0.101)] and opposition [Bpoverty*age = 0.049; CI 95 % (0.018; 0.079)] increased at a faster rate up to age 5 years, and then decreased at a slower rate for poor than non-poor children. Physical aggression decreased at a steady rate over time for all children [Bpoverty*age = -0.030; p = 0.064). Estimates remained similar when accounting for attrition. Poverty predicted higher levels of behavior problems between 1.5 and 8 years of age. The difference between poor and non-poor children was stable over time for physical aggression, but increased with age for hyperactivity and opposition. Attrition among poor children did not compromise the validity of results.

Development and testing of watershed-scale models for poorly drained soils

Treesearch

Glenn P. Fernandez; George M. Chescheir; R. Wayne Skaggs; Devendra M. Amatya

2005-01-01

Watershed-scale hydrology and water quality models were used to evaluate the crrmulative impacts of land use and management practices on dowrzstream hydrology and nitrogen loading of poorly drained watersheds. Field-scale hydrology and nutrient dyyrutmics are predicted by DRAINMOD in both models. In the first model (DRAINMOD-DUFLOW), field-scale predictions are coupled...

Phonology and Handedness in Primary School: Predictions of the Right Shift Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smythe, Pamela; Annett, Marian

2006-01-01

Background: The right shift (RS) theory of handedness suggests that poor phonology may occur in the general population as a risk associated with absence of an agent of left cerebral speech, the hypothesised RS + gene. The theory predicts that poor phonology is associated with reduced bias to right-handedness. Methods: A representative cohort of…

Wind tunnel wall effects in a linear oscillating cascade

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buffum, Daniel H.; Fleeter, Sanford

1991-01-01

Experiments in a linear oscillating cascade reveal that the wind tunnel walls enclosing the airfoils have, in some cases, a detrimental effect on the oscillating cascade aerodynamics. In a subsonic flow field, biconvex airfoils are driven simultaneously in harmonic, torsion-mode oscillations for a range of interblade phase angle values. It is found that the cascade dynamic periodicity - the airfoil to airfoil variation in unsteady surface pressure - is good for some values of interblade phase angle but poor for others. Correlation of the unsteady pressure data with oscillating flat plate cascade predictions is generally good for conditions where the periodicity is good and poor where the periodicity is poor. Calculations based upon linearized unsteady aerodynamic theory indicate that pressure waves reflected from the wind tunnel walls are responsible for the cases where there is poor periodicity and poor correlation with the predictions.

High Tumor Volume to Fetal Weight Ratio Is Associated with Worse Fetal Outcomes and Increased Maternal Risk in Fetuses with Sacrococcygeal Teratoma.

PubMed

Gebb, Juliana S; Khalek, Nahla; Qamar, Huma; Johnson, Mark P; Oliver, Edward R; Coleman, Beverly G; Peranteau, William H; Hedrick, Holly L; Flake, Alan W; Adzick, N Scott; Moldenhauer, Julie S

2018-03-01

Tumor volume to fetal weight ratio (TFR) > 0.12 before 24 weeks has been associated with poor outcome in fetuses with sacrococcygeal teratoma (SCT). We evaluated TFR in predicting poor fetal outcome and increased maternal operative risk in our cohort of SCT pregnancies. This is a retrospective, single-center review of fetuses seen with SCT from 1997 to 2015. Patients who chose termination of pregnancy (TOP), delivered elsewhere, or had initial evaluation at > 24 weeks were excluded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis determined the optimal TFR to predict poor fetal outcome and increased maternal operative risk. Poor fetal outcome included fetal demise, neonatal demise, or fetal deterioration warranting open fetal surgery or delivery < 32 weeks. Increased maternal operative risk included cases necessitating open fetal surgery, classical cesarean delivery, or ex utero intrapartum treatment (EXIT). Of 139 pregnancies with SCT, 27 chose TOP, 14 delivered elsewhere, and 40 had initial evaluation at > 24 weeks. Thus, 58 fetuses were reviewed. ROC analysis revealed that at ≤24 weeks, TFR > 0.095 was predictive of poor fetal outcome and TFR > 0.12 was predictive of increased maternal operative risk. This study supports the use of TFR at ≤24 weeks for risk stratification of pregnancies with SCT. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Circulating basal anti-Müllerian hormone levels as predictor of ovarian response in women undergoing ovarian stimulation for in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Nardo, Luciano G; Gelbaya, Tarek A; Wilkinson, Hannah; Roberts, Stephen A; Yates, Allen; Pemberton, Phil; Laing, Ian

2009-11-01

To evaluate the clinical value of basal anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) measurements compared with other available determinants, apart from chronologic age, in the prediction of ovarian response to gonadotrophin stimulation. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary referral center for reproductive medicine and an IVF unit. Women undergoing their first cycle of controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) for in vitro fertilization (IVF). Basal levels of FSH and AMH as well as antral follicle count (AFC) were measured in 165 subjects. All patients were followed prospectively and their cycle outcomes recorded. Predictive value of FSH, AMH, and AFC for extremes of ovarian response to stimulation. Out of the 165 women, 134 were defined as normal responders, 15 as poor responders, and 16 as high responders. Subjects in the poor response group were significantly older then those in the other two groups. Anti-Müllerian hormone levels and AFC were markedly raised in the high responders and decreased in the poor responders. Compared with FSH and AFC, AMH performed better in the prediction of excessive response to ovarian stimulation-AMH area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC(AUC)) 0.81, FSH ROC(AUC) 0.66, AFC ROC(AUC) 0.69. For poor response, AMH (ROC(AUC) 0.88) was a significantly better predictor than FSH (ROC(AUC) 0.63) but not AFC (ROC(AUC) 0.81). AMH prediction of ovarian response was independent of age and PCOS. Anti-Müllerian hormone cutoffs of >3.75 ng/mL and <1.0 ng/mL would have modest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the extremes of response. Circulating AMH has the ability to predict excessive and poor response to stimulation with exogenous gonadotrophins. Overall, this biomarker is superior to basal FSH and AFC, and has the potential to be incorporated in to work-up protocols to predict patient's ovarian response to treatment and to individualize strategies aiming at reducing the cancellation rate and the iatrogenic complications of COH.

Value of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio for predicting lung cancer prognosis: A meta-analysis of 7,219 patients.

PubMed

Yu, Yu; Qian, Lei; Cui, Jiuwei

2017-09-01

Current evidence suggests that the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) may be a biomarker for poor prognosis in lung cancer, although this association remains controversial. Therefore, a meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the association between NLR and lung cancer outcome. A systematic literature search was performed through the PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library databases (until July 30, 2016), to identify studies evaluating the association between NLR and overall survival (OS) and/or progression-free survival (PFS) among patients with lung cancer. Based on the results of this search, data from 18 studies involving 7,219 patients with lung cancer were evaluated. The pooled hazard ratio (HR) suggested that elevated pretreatment NLR predicted poor OS [HR=1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.30-1.64] and poor PFS (HR=1.42, 95% CI: 1.15-1.75) among patients with lung cancer. Subgroup analysis revealed that the prognostic value of NLR for predicting poor OS increased among patients who underwent surgery (HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.21-1.84) or patients with early-stage disease (HR=1.64, 95% CI: 1.37-1.97). An NLR cut-off value of ≥4 significantly predicted poor OS (HR=1.56, 95% CI: 1.31-1.85) and PFS (HR=1.54, 95% CI: 1.13-1.82), particularly in the cases of small-cell lung cancer. Thus, the results of the present meta-analysis suggested that an elevated pretreatment NLR (e.g., ≥4) may be considered as a biomarker for poor prognosis in patients with lung cancer.

Blend sign predicts poor outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Yang, Wen-Song; Wang, Xing-Chen; Cao, Du; Zhu, Dan; Lv, Fa-Jin; Liu, Yang; Yuan, Liang; Zhang, Gang; Xiong, Xin; Li, Rui; Hu, Yun-Xin; Qin, Xin-Yue; Xie, Peng

2017-01-01

Blend sign has been recently described as a novel imaging marker that predicts hematoma expansion. The purpose of our study was to investigate the prognostic value of CT blend sign in patients with ICH. Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who underwent baseline CT scan within 6 hours were included. The presence of blend sign on admission nonenhanced CT was independently assessed by two readers. The functional outcome was assessed by using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. Blend sign was identified in 40 of 238 (16.8%) patients on admission CT scan. The proportion of patients with a poor functional outcome was significantly higher in patients with blend sign than those without blend sign (75.0% versus 47.5%, P = 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, intraventricular hemorrhage, admission GCS score, baseline hematoma volume and presence of blend sign on baseline CT independently predict poor functional outcome at 90 days. The CT blend sign independently predicts poor outcome in patients with ICH (odds ratio 3.61, 95% confidence interval [1.47-8.89];p = 0.005). Early identification of blend sign is useful in prognostic stratification and may serve as a potential therapeutic target for prospective interventional studies.

Mothers' early depressive symptoms and children's first-grade adjustment: a transactional analysis of child withdrawal as a mediator.

PubMed

Yan, Ni; Dix, Theodore

2014-05-01

The depression-inhibition hypothesis suggests that mothers' depressive symptoms undermine development because they lead children to withdraw from social contact. To test this, this study examined whether poor first-grade adjustment among children of mothers with depressive symptoms is mediated by the emergence of child withdrawal in early development. Based on 1,364 dyads, four waves of data spanning from 24 months to first grade (7 years) were used to examine paths by which children's withdrawal mediates relations between mothers' early depressive symptoms and three first-grade outcomes: social competence, academic performance, and externalizing behavior problems. Structural equation modeling revealed three principal paths. First, direct relations were observed: Mothers' depressive symptoms predicted early child withdrawal and increases in child withdrawal over time, which predicted poor first-grade adjustment. Second, reciprocal relations were observed: Mothers' depressive symptoms predicted child withdrawal, which predicted increases in depressive symptoms. Third, relations via mother-child mutual responsiveness were observed: Depression-related increases in child withdrawal predicted declines in mutual responsiveness, which predicted poor first-grade adjustment. The findings suggest that, due to its interdependence with maternal depression and low mother-child mutual responsiveness over time, child withdrawal may play an important role in the poor first-grade adjustment of children whose mothers are high in depressive symptoms. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry. © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Low Cerebral Blood Volume Identifies Poor Outcome in Stent Retriever Thrombectomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Protto, Sara, E-mail: sara.protto@pshp.fi; Pienimäki, Juha-Pekka; Seppänen, Janne

BackgroundMechanical thrombectomy (MT) is an efficient treatment of acute stroke caused by large-vessel occlusion. We evaluated the factors predicting poor clinical outcome (3-month modified Rankin Scale, mRS >2) although MT performed with modern stent retrievers.MethodsWe prospectively collected the clinical and imaging data of 105 consecutive anterior circulation stroke patients who underwent MT after multimodal CT imaging. Patients with occlusion of the internal carotid artery and/or middle cerebral artery up to the M2 segment were included. We recorded baseline clinical, procedural and imaging variables, technical outcome, 24-h imaging outcome and the clinical outcome. Differences between the groups were studied with appropriatemore » statistical tests and binary logistic regression analysis.ResultsLow cerebral blood volume Alberta stroke program early CT score (CBV-ASPECTS) was associated with poor clinical outcome (median 7 vs. 9, p = 0.01). Lower collateral score (CS) significantly predicted poor outcome in regression modelling with CS = 0 increasing the odds of poor outcome 4.4-fold compared to CS = 3 (95% CI 1.27–15.5, p = 0.02). Lower CBV-ASPECTS significantly predicted poor clinical outcome among those with moderate or severe stroke (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.68–1, p = 0.05) or poor collateral circulation (CS 0–1, OR 0.66, 95% CI 0.48–0.90, p = 0.009) but not among those with mild strokes or good collaterals.ConclusionsCBV-ASPECTS estimating infarct core is a significant predictor of poor clinical outcome among anterior circulation stroke patients treated with MT, especially in the setting of poor collateral circulation and/or moderate or severe stroke.« less

Comparing the utility of the theory of planned behavior between boys and girls for predicting snack food consumption: implications for practice.

PubMed

Branscum, Paul; Sharma, Manoj

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to use the theory of planned behavior to explain two types of snack food consumption among boys and girls (girls n = 98; boys n = 69), which may have implications for future theory-based health promotion interventions. Between genders, there was a significant difference for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks (p = .002), but no difference for fruit and vegetable snacks. Using stepwise multiple regression, attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms accounted for a large amount of the variance of intentions (girls = 43.3%; boys = 55.9%); however, for girls, subjective norms accounted for the most variance, whereas for boys, attitudes accounted for the most variance. Calories from calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks and fruit and vegetable snacks were also predicted by intentions. For boys, intentions predicted 6.4% of the variance for fruit and vegetable snacks (p = .03) but was not significant for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks, whereas for girls, intentions predicted 6.0% of the variance for fruit and vegetable snacks (p = .007), and 7.2% of the variance for calorie-dense/nutrient-poor snacks (p = .004). Results suggest that the theory of planned behavior is a useful framework for predicting snack foods among children; however, there are important differences between genders that should be considered in future health promotion interventions.

Subjective Sleep Quality in Women With Divorce Histories: The Role of Intimate Partner Victimization.

PubMed

Newton, Tamara L; Burns, Vicki Ellison; Miller, James J; Fernandez-Botran, G Rafael

2016-05-01

A marital status of divorced or separated, as opposed to married, predicts increased risk of health problems, but not for all persons. Focusing on one established health risk that has been linked with divorce--poor subjective sleep quality--the present cross-sectional study examined whether a history of physical intimate partner victimization (IPV) helps identify divorced women at potentially greater risk of health problems. Community midlife women with divorce histories, all of whom were free of current IPV, reported on their past month sleep quality and lifetime IPV. The predicted odds of poor sleep quality were significantly greater for women with, versus without, IPV histories. This held after adjusting for socioemotional, medical, or sociodemographic risks. A dose-response relationship between IPV chronicity and poor quality sleep was observed. IPV history may help identify divorced women at increased risk of poor quality sleep and, more broadly, poor health. © The Author(s) 2015.

The role of ovarian reserve markers in prediction of clinical pregnancy.

PubMed

Zebitay, Ali G; Cetin, Orkun; Verit, Fatma F; Keskin, Seda; Sakar, M Nafi; Karahuseyinoglu, Sercin; Ilhan, Gulsah; Sahmay, Sezai

2017-05-01

To evaluate the role of ovarian reserve markers in the prediction of clinical pregnancy and embryo transfer accomplishment among poor responder IVF applicants. 304 female poor responder IVF applicants were included in this prospective cohort study conducted at the IVF-unit. Antral follicle count, FSH, LH, E2, AMH and IVF outcomes were compared in pregnant and non-pregnant groups as well as in ET vs. non-ET groups. The number of retrieved oocytes was significantly correlated positively with AMH and AFC, and negatively with FSH and age. Quartiles of FSH and AFC were similar to the rate of pregnancy. Quartiles of AMH (<25%/25-75% and <25%/>75%) were statistically significant. Mean serum levels for AMH were significantly lower in the non-ET group. Our findings seem to indicate that day 3 AMH values can predict ET accomplishment with a sensitivity of 96% and a specificity of 35%. Quartiles of AMH <25% (< 0.21 ng/mL) can predict the IVF results among poor responder IVF applicants. Impact statement Various cut-off values have been determined for day 3 serum AMH values. These values help to determine the groups that are expected to give normal, high or low response to stimulation and decide the treatment options. In contrast to other groups of patients, poor responders cannot reach the embryo transfer stage for several reasons. These are; absence of a mature oocyte after oocyte pick-up, fertilisation failure without male factor or poor embryo quality. In the present study; a cut-off value of 0.33 ng/mL for the prediction of ET accomplishment in poor responder patients was determined with a sensitivity of 96%. Additionally, clinical pregnancy could not be achieved under the value of 0.21 ng/mL day 3 AMH values. It is important to clarify the embryo transfer success of poor responder patients prior to expected treatment success. Pre-treatment counselling for these patients would lessen the disappointment that may develop after treatment. The cost-effectiveness of treatments below these AMH values can be determined by further studies.

Logistic regression models for predicting physical and mental health-related quality of life in rheumatoid arthritis patients.

PubMed

Alishiri, Gholam Hossein; Bayat, Noushin; Fathi Ashtiani, Ali; Tavallaii, Seyed Abbas; Assari, Shervin; Moharamzad, Yashar

2008-01-01

The aim of this work was to develop two logistic regression models capable of predicting physical and mental health related quality of life (HRQOL) among rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients. In this cross-sectional study which was conducted during 2006 in the outpatient rheumatology clinic of our university hospital, Short Form 36 (SF-36) was used for HRQOL measurements in 411 RA patients. A cutoff point to define poor versus good HRQOL was calculated using the first quartiles of SF-36 physical and mental component scores (33.4 and 36.8, respectively). Two distinct logistic regression models were used to derive predictive variables including demographic, clinical, and psychological factors. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of each model were calculated. Poor physical HRQOL was positively associated with pain score, disease duration, monthly family income below 300 US$, comorbidity, patient global assessment of disease activity or PGA, and depression (odds ratios: 1.1; 1.004; 15.5; 1.1; 1.02; 2.08, respectively). The variables that entered into the poor mental HRQOL prediction model were monthly family income below 300 US$, comorbidity, PGA, and bodily pain (odds ratios: 6.7; 1.1; 1.01; 1.01, respectively). Optimal sensitivity and specificity were achieved at a cutoff point of 0.39 for the estimated probability of poor physical HRQOL and 0.18 for mental HRQOL. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of the physical and mental models were 73.8, 87, 83.7% and 90.38, 70.36, 75.43%, respectively. The results show that the suggested models can be used to predict poor physical and mental HRQOL separately among RA patients using simple variables with acceptable accuracy. These models can be of use in the clinical decision-making of RA patients and to recognize patients with poor physical or mental HRQOL in advance, for better management.

Predicting the extent of metabolism using in vitro permeability rate measurements and in silico permeability rate predictions

PubMed Central

Hosey, Chelsea M; Benet, Leslie Z

2015-01-01

The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) can be utilized to predict drug disposition, including interactions with other drugs and transporter or metabolizing enzyme effects based on the extent of metabolism and solubility of a drug. However, defining the extent of metabolism relies upon clinical data. Drugs exhibiting high passive intestinal permeability rates are extensively metabolized. Therefore, we aimed to determine if in vitro measures of permeability rate or in silico permeability rate predictions could predict the extent of metabolism, to determine a reference compound representing the permeability rate above which compounds would be expected to be extensively metabolized, and to predict the major route of elimination of compounds in a two-tier approach utilizing permeability rate and a previously published model predicting the major route of elimination of parent drug. Twenty-two in vitro permeability rate measurement data sets in Caco-2 and MDCK cell lines and PAMPA were collected from the literature, while in silico permeability rate predictions were calculated using ADMET Predictor™ or VolSurf+. The potential for permeability rate to differentiate between extensively and poorly metabolized compounds was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curves. Compounds that yielded the highest sensitivity-specificity average were selected as permeability rate reference standards. The major route of elimination of poorly permeable drugs was predicted by our previously published model and the accuracies and predictive values were calculated. The areas under the receiver operating curves were >0.90 for in vitro measures of permeability rate and >0.80 for the VolSurf+ model of permeability rate, indicating they were able to predict the extent of metabolism of compounds. Labetalol and zidovudine predicted greater than 80% of extensively metabolized drugs correctly and greater than 80% of poorly metabolized drugs correctly in Caco-2 and MDCK, respectively, while theophylline predicted greater than 80% of extensively and poorly metabolized drugs correctly in PAMPA. A two-tier approach predicting elimination route predicts 72±9%, 49±10%, and 66±7% of extensively metabolized, biliarily eliminated, and renally eliminated parent drugs correctly when the permeability rate is predicted in silico and 74±7%, 85±2%, and 73±8% of extensively metabolized, biliarily eliminated, and renally eliminated parent drugs correctly, respectively when the permeability rate is determined in vitro. PMID:25816851

Development of a prediction tool for patients presenting with acute cough in primary care: a prognostic study spanning six European countries.

PubMed

Bruyndonckx, Robin; Hens, Niel; Verheij, Theo Jm; Aerts, Marc; Ieven, Margareta; Butler, Christopher C; Little, Paul; Goossens, Herman; Coenen, Samuel

2018-05-01

Accurate prediction of the course of an acute cough episode could curb antibiotic overprescribing, but is still a major challenge in primary care. The authors set out to develop a new prediction rule for poor outcome (re-consultation with new or worsened symptoms, or hospital admission) in adults presenting to primary care with acute cough. Data were collected from 2604 adults presenting to primary care with acute cough or symptoms suggestive of lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) within the Genomics to combat Resistance against Antibiotics in Community-acquired LRTI in Europe (GRACE; www.grace-lrti.org) Network of Excellence. Important signs and symptoms for the new prediction rule were found by combining random forest and logistic regression modelling. Performance to predict poor outcome in acute cough patients was compared with that of existing prediction rules, using the models' area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC), and any improvement obtained by including additional test results (C-reactive protein [CRP], blood urea nitrogen [BUN], chest radiography, or aetiology) was evaluated using the same methodology. The new prediction rule, included the baseline Risk of poor outcome, Interference with daily activities, number of years stopped Smoking (> or <45 years), severity of Sputum, presence of Crackles, and diastolic blood pressure (> or <85 mmHg) (RISSC85). Though performance of RISSC85 was moderate (sensitivity 62%, specificity 59%, positive predictive value 27%, negative predictive value 86%, AUC 0.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.61 to 0.67), it outperformed all existing prediction rules used today (highest AUC 0.53, 95% CI = 0.51 to 0.56), and could not be significantly improved by including additional test results (highest AUC 0.64, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.68). The new prediction rule outperforms all existing alternatives in predicting poor outcome in adult patients presenting to primary care with acute cough and could not be improved by including additional test results. © British Journal of General Practice 2018.

Reconsidering the logic of World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grading in patients with severe subarachnoid hemorrhage.

PubMed

Fung, Christian; Inglin, Fabienne; Murek, Michael; Balmer, Mathias; Abu-Isa, Janine; Z'Graggen, Werner J; Ozdoba, Christoph; Gralla, Jan; Jakob, Stephan M; Takala, Jukka; Beck, Jürgen; Raabe, Andreas

2016-02-01

Current data show a favorable outcome in up to 50% of patients with World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and a rather poor prediction of worst cases. Thus, the usefulness of the current WFNS grading system for identifying the worst scenarios for clinical studies and for making treatment decisions is limited. One reason for this lack of differentiation is the use of "negative" or "silent" diagnostic signs as part of the WFNS Grade V definition. The authors therefore reevaluated the WFNS scale by using "positive" clinical signs and the logic of the Glasgow Coma Scale as a progressive herniation score. The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 182 patients with SAH who had poor grades on the WFNS scale. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally according to a modified classification, the WFNS herniation (hWFNS) scale (Grade IV, no clinical signs of herniation; Grade V, clinical signs of herniation). The prediction of poor outcome was compared between these two grading systems. The positive predictive values of Grade V for poor outcome were 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.94-7.54) for WFNS Grade V and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI 3.78-19.47) for hWFNS Grade V. With respect to mortality, the positive predictive values were 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.01-7.69) for WFNS Grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI 3.07-13.14) for hWFNS Grade V. Limiting WFNS Grade V to the positive clinical signs of the Glasgow Coma Scale such as flexion, extension, and pupillary abnormalities instead of including "no motor response" increases the prediction of mortality and poor outcome in patients with severe SAH.

Identifying Medical Students Likely to Exhibit Poor Professionalism and Knowledge During Internship

PubMed Central

Durning, Steven J.; Cohen, Daniel L.; Cruess, David; Jackson, Jeffrey L.

2007-01-01

CONTEXT Identifying medical students who will perform poorly during residency is difficult. OBJECTIVE Determine whether commonly available data predicts low performance ratings during internship by residency program directors. DESIGN Prospective cohort involving medical school data from graduates of the Uniformed Services University (USU), surveys about experiences at USU, and ratings of their performance during internship by their program directors. SETTING Uniformed Services University. PARTICIPANTS One thousand sixty-nine graduates between 1993 and 2002. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Residency program directors completed an 18-item survey assessing intern performance. Factor analysis of these items collapsed to 2 domains: knowledge and professionalism. These domains were scored and performance dichotomized at the 10th percentile. RESULTS Many variables showed a univariate relationship with ratings in the bottom 10% of both domains. Multivariable logistic regression modeling revealed that grades earned during the third year predicted low ratings in both knowledge (odds ratio [OR] = 4.9; 95%CI = 2.7–9.2) and professionalism (OR = 7.3; 95%CI = 4.1–13.0). USMLE step 1 scores (OR = 1.03; 95%CI = 1.01–1.05) predicted knowledge but not professionalism. The remaining variables were not independently predictive of performance ratings. The predictive ability for the knowledge and professionalism models was modest (respective area under ROC curves = 0.735 and 0.725). CONCLUSIONS A strong association exists between the third year GPA and internship ratings by program directors in professionalism and knowledge. In combination with third year grades, either the USMLE step 1 or step 2 scores predict poor knowledge ratings. Despite a wealth of available markers and a large data set, predicting poor performance during internship remains difficult. PMID:17952512

Mental health status, aggression, and poor driving distinguish traffic offenders from non-offenders but health status predicts driving behavior in both groups

PubMed Central

Abdoli, Nasrin; Farnia, Vahid; Delavar, Ali; Dortaj, Fariborz; Esmaeili, Alireza; Farrokhi, Noorali; Karami, Majid; Shakeri, Jalal; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2015-01-01

Background In Iran, traffic accidents and deaths from traffic accidents are among the highest in the world, and generally, driver behavior rather than technical failures or environmental conditions are responsible for traffic accidents. In a previous study, we showed that among young Iranian male traffic offenders, poor mental health status, along with aggression, predicted poor driving behavior. The aims of the present study were twofold, to determine whether this pattern could be replicated among non-traffic offenders, and to compare the mental health status, aggression, and driving behavior of male traffic offenders and non-offenders. Methods A total of 850 male drivers (mean age =34.25 years, standard deviation =10.44) from Kermanshah (Iran) took part in the study. Of these, 443 were offenders (52.1%) and 407 (47.9%) were non-offenders with lowest driving penalty scores applying for attaining an international driving license. Participants completed a questionnaire booklet covering socio-demographic variables, traits of aggression, health status, and driving behavior. Results Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer mental health status, and worse driving behavior. Among non-offenders, multiple regression indicated that poor health status, but not aggression, independently predicted poor driving behavior. Conclusion Compared to non-offenders, offenders reported higher aggression, poorer health status and driving behavior. Further, the predictive power of poorer mental health status, but not aggression, for driving behavior was replicated for male non-offenders. PMID:26300646

1 H MR spectroscopy in cervical carcinoma using external phase array body coil at 3.0 Tesla: Prediction of poor prognostic human papillomavirus genotypes.

PubMed

Lin, Gigin; Lai, Chyong-Huey; Tsai, Shang-Yueh; Lin, Yu-Chun; Huang, Yu-Ting; Wu, Ren-Chin; Yang, Lan-Yan; Lu, Hsin-Ying; Chao, Angel; Wang, Chiun-Chieh; Ng, Koon-Kwan; Ng, Shu-Hang; Chou, Hung-Hsueh; Yen, Tzu-Chen; Hung, Ji-Hong

2017-03-01

To assess the clinical value of proton ( 1 H) MR spectroscopy in cervical carcinomas, in the prediction of poor prognostic human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes as well as persistent disease following concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT). 1 H MR spectroscopy using external phase array coil was performed in 52 consecutive cervical cancer patients at 3 Tesla (T). Poor prognostic HPV genotypes (alpha-7 species or absence of HPV infection) and persistent cervical carcinoma after CCRT were recorded. Statistical significance was calculated with the Mann-Whitney two-sided nonparametric test and areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) analysis. A 4.3-fold (P = 0.032) increased level of methyl resonance at 0.9 ppm was found in the poor prognostic HPV genotypes, mainly attributed to the presence of HPV18, with a sensitivity of 75%, a specificity of 81%, and an AUC of 0.76. Poor prognostic HPV genotypes were more frequently observed in patients with adeno-/adenosquamous carcinoma (Chi-square, P < 0.0001). In prediction of the four patients with persistent disease after CCRT, elevated methyl resonance demonstrated a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 74%, and an AUC of 0.82. 1 H MR spectroscopy at 3T can be used to depict the elevated lipid resonance levels in cervical carcinomas, as well as help to predict the poor prognostic HPV genotypes and persistent disease following CCRT. Further large studies with longer follow up times are warranted to validate our initial findings. 1 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2017;45:899-907. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

The prediction of disability by self-reported physical frailty components of the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI).

PubMed

Gobbens, R J J; van Assen, M A L M; Schalk, M J D

2014-01-01

Disability is an important health outcome for older persons; it is associated with impaired quality of life, future hospitalization, and mortality. Disability also places a high burden on health care professionals and health care systems. Disability is regarded as an adverse outcome of physical frailty. The main objective of this study was to assess the predictive validity of the eight individual self-reported components of the physical frailty subscale of the TFI for activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) disability. This longitudinal study was carried out with a sample of Dutch citizens. At baseline the sample consisted at 429 people aged 65 years and older and a subset of all respondents participated again two and a half years later (N=355, 83% response rate). The respondents completed a web-based questionnaire comprising the TFI and the Groningen Activity Restriction Scale (GARS) for measuring disability. Five components together (unintentional weakness, weakness, poor endurance, slowness, low physical activity), referring to the phenotype of Fried et al., predicted disability, even after controlling for previous disability and other background characteristics. The other three components of the physical frailty subscale of the TFI (poor balance, poor hearing, poor vision) together did not predict disability. Low physical activity predicted both total and ADL disability, and slowness both total and IADL disability. In conclusion, self-report assessment using the physical subscale of the TFI aids the prediction of future ADL and IADL disability in older persons two and a half years later. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blend sign predicts poor outcome in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Cao, Du; Zhu, Dan; Lv, Fa-Jin; Liu, Yang; Yuan, Liang; Zhang, Gang; Xiong, Xin; Li, Rui; Hu, Yun-Xin; Qin, Xin-Yue; Xie, Peng

2017-01-01

Introduction Blend sign has been recently described as a novel imaging marker that predicts hematoma expansion. The purpose of our study was to investigate the prognostic value of CT blend sign in patients with ICH. Objectives and methods Patients with intracerebral hemorrhage who underwent baseline CT scan within 6 hours were included. The presence of blend sign on admission nonenhanced CT was independently assessed by two readers. The functional outcome was assessed by using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. Results Blend sign was identified in 40 of 238 (16.8%) patients on admission CT scan. The proportion of patients with a poor functional outcome was significantly higher in patients with blend sign than those without blend sign (75.0% versus 47.5%, P = 0.001). The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, intraventricular hemorrhage, admission GCS score, baseline hematoma volume and presence of blend sign on baseline CT independently predict poor functional outcome at 90 days. The CT blend sign independently predicts poor outcome in patients with ICH (odds ratio 3.61, 95% confidence interval [1.47–8.89];p = 0.005). Conclusions Early identification of blend sign is useful in prognostic stratification and may serve as a potential therapeutic target for prospective interventional studies. PMID:28829797

Predicting contraceptive vigilance in adolescent females: a projective method for assessing ego development.

PubMed

Speier, P L; Mélèse-D'Hospital, I A; Tschann, J M; Moore, P J; Adler, N E

1997-01-01

To test the hypothesis that ego development would predict contraceptive use. Problems in ego development were defined in terms of three factors: (1) realism, (2) complexity, and (3) discontinuity. Forty-one respondents aged 14-17 years were selected from a group of 233 adolescents who were administered a projective pregnancy scenario and participated in a 12-month follow-up. Twenty of these adolescents were randomly selected from the group determined to be effective contraceptive users, while 21 were randomly selected from the group of poor contraceptors. Chi-square test revealed a significant association (p < .0005) between the composite ego maturity (EM) measure and contraceptive outcome (chi 2 = 13.82, with df-1). Low scores on the ego maturity measure predicted poor contraceptive use. EM was unrelated to age but was associated with race (chi 2 = 7.535, .025 < p < .05). However, EM predicted contraceptive use when controlling for the effects of race. A simple, time-efficient projective pregnancy scenario is an effective way of determining adolescent females at risk for poor contraceptive effectiveness and, therefore, untimely pregnancy. These stories are analyzed using factors related to the ego development of the adolescent. Subjects who scored lower on this measure have poor contraceptive effectiveness while subjects with higher levels demonstrated effective contraception use, at 1-year follow-up.

Factors associated with poor sleep during menopause: results from the Midlife Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Smith, Rebecca L; Flaws, Jodi A; Mahoney, Megan M

2018-05-01

Poor sleep is one of the most common problems reported during menopause, and is known to vary throughout the menopause transition. The objective of this study was to describe the dynamics of poor sleep among participants of the Midlife Women's Health Study and to identify risk factors associated with poor sleep during the menopausal transition. Annual responses to surveys that included questions about the frequency of sleep disturbances and insomnia were analyzed to determine the likelihood of persistent poor sleep throughout the menopausal transition and the correlation of responses to the different sleep-related questions, including frequency of restless sleep during the first year of the study. Responses to questions about a large number of potential risk factors were used to identify risk factors for poor sleep. Poor sleep in premenopause was not predictive of poor sleep in perimenopause, and poor sleep in perimenopause was not predictive of poor sleep in postmenopause. Frequencies of each of the measures of poor sleep were highly correlated. For all sleep outcomes, high frequency of depression was related to a high frequency of poor sleep. Vasomotor symptoms were also significantly related with a higher frequency of all poor sleep outcomes. A history of smoking was also associated with higher frequencies of insomnia and sleep disturbances. The risk factors identified for poor sleep, depression and vasomotor symptoms, were consistently associated with poor sleep throughout the menopausal transition. The likelihood of these risk factors changed from premenopause, through perimenopause, and into postmenopause, however, which could explain changes in sleep difficulties across the menopausal transition. Treatment of these risk factors should be considered when addressing sleep difficulties in menopausal women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interactive contributions of self-regulation deficits and social motivation to psychopathology: Unraveling divergent pathways to aggressive behavior and depressive symptoms

PubMed Central

RUDOLPH, KAREN D.; TROOP-GORDON, WENDY; LLEWELLYN, NICOLE

2015-01-01

Poor self-regulation has been implicated as a significant risk factor for the development of multiple forms of psychopathology. This research examined the proposition that self-regulation deficits differentially predict aggressive behavior and depressive symptoms, depending on children’s social approach versus avoidance motivation. A prospective, multiple-informant approach was used to test this hypothesis in 419 children (M age = 8.92, SD = 0.36). Parents rated children’s inhibitory control. Children completed measures of social approach–avoidance motivation and depressive symptoms. Teachers rated children’s aggressive behavior. As anticipated, poor inhibitory control predicted aggressive behavior in boys with high but not low approach motivation and low but not high avoidance motivation, whereas poor inhibitory control predicted depressive symptoms in girls with high but not low avoidance motivation. This research supports several complementary theoretical models of psychopathology and provides insight into the differential contributions of poor self-regulation to maladaptive developmental outcomes. The findings suggest the need for targeted intervention programs that consider heterogeneity among children with self-regulatory deficits. PMID:23627953

Poor People, Black Faces: The Portrayal of Poverty in Economics Textbooks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clawson, Rosalee A.

2002-01-01

Examined the portrayal of poverty in economics textbooks, investigating whether poverty would be predicted as a black problem. Results found evidence that black faces were overwhelmingly portrayed among the contemporary poor, yet Blacks were not portrayed among the Great Depression era poor and nor were they used to illustrate the popular Social…

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-03-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience.

Good phonetic errors in poor spellers are associated with right-handedness and possible weak utilisation of visuospatial abilities.

PubMed

Eglinton, Elizabeth; Annett, Marian

2008-06-01

Poor spellers in normal schools, who were not poor readers, were studied for handedness, visuospatial and other cognitive abilities in order to explore contrasts between poor spellers with and without good phonology. It was predicted by the right shift (RS) theory of handedness and cerebral dominance that those with good phonology would have strong bias to dextrality and relative weakness of the right hemisphere, while those without good phonology would have reduced bias to dextrality and relative weakness of the left hemisphere. Poor spellers with good phonetic equivalent spelling errors (GFEs) included fewer left-handers (2.4%) than poor spellers without GFEs (24.4%). Differences for hand skill were as predicted. Tests of visuospatial processing found no differences between the groups in levels of ability, but there was a marked difference in pattern of correlations between visuospatial test scores and homophonic word discrimination. Whereas good spellers (GS) and poor spellers without GFEs showed positive correlations between word discrimination and visuospatial ability, there were no significant correlations for poor spellers with GFEs. The differences for handedness and possibly for the utilisation of visuospatial skills suggest that surface dyslexics differ from phonological dyslexics in cerebral specialisation and perhaps in the quality of inter-hemispheric relations.

Action Imitation at 1.5 Years Is Better than Pointing Gesture in Predicting Late Development of Language Production at 3 Years of Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zambrana, Imac M.; Ystrom, Eivind; Schjolberg, Synnve; Pons, Francisco

2013-01-01

This study examined whether poor pointing gestures and imitative actions at 18 months of age uniquely predicted late language production at 36 months, beyond the role of poor language at 18 months of age. Data from the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study were utilized. Maternal reports of the children's nonverbal skills and language were…

Brief report: Poor self-regulation as a predictor of individual differences in adaptive functioning in young children with autism spectrum disorder.

PubMed

Uljarević, Mirko; Hedley, Darren; Nevill, Rose; Evans, David W; Cai, Ru Ying; Butter, Eric; Mulick, James A

2018-04-06

The present study examined the link between poor self-regulation (measured by the child behavior checklist dysregulated profile [DP]) and core autism symptoms, as well as with developmental level, in a sample of 107 children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) aged 19-46 months. We further examined the utility of DP in predicting individual differences in adaptive functioning, relative to the influence of ASD severity, chronological age (CA), and developmental level. Poor self-regulation was unrelated to CA, developmental level, and severity of ADOS-2 restricted and repetitive behaviors, but was associated with lower ADOS-2 social affect severity. Hierarchical regression identified poor self-regulation as a unique independent predictor of adaptive behavior, with more severe dysregulation predicting poorer adaptive functioning. Results highlight the importance of early identification of deficits in self-regulation, and more specifically, of the utility of DP, when designing individually tailored treatments for young children with ASD. Autism Res 2018. © 2018 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. This study explored the relationship between poor self-regulation and age, verbal and non-verbal developmental level, severity of autism symptoms and adaptive functioning in 107 children with autism under 4 years of age. Poor self-regulation was unrelated to age, developmental level, and severity of restricted and repetitive behaviors but was associated with lower social affect severity. Importantly, more severe self-regulation deficits predicted poorer adaptive functioning. © 2018 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

How well do parental and peer relationships in adolescence predict health in adulthood?

PubMed

Landstedt, Evelina; Hammarström, Anne; Winefield, Helen

2015-07-01

Although health effects of social relationships are well-researched, long-term health consequences of adolescent family as well as peer relationships are poorly understood. The aim of the study was to explore the prospective importance of parental and peer social relationships in adolescence on internalising and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood. Data were drawn from four waves of the Northern Swedish Cohort Study, response rate 94.3%, N=1001. Outcome variables were internalising and functional somatic symptoms at the ages of 21, 30 and 42. Relationship variables at age 16 were poor parental contact and three indicators of poor peer relationships. Associations were assessed in multivariate ordinal logistic regressions with adjustment for confounders and baseline health. Results show that the main relationships-related predictors of adult internalising symptoms were self-rated poor peer relationships in terms of spending time alone during after-school hours and poor parental relationship. Functional somatic symptoms on the other hand were most strongly associated with poor parental contact and not being happy with classmates at age 16. The quality of parental and peer relationships in adolescence predicts adult mental and functional somatic health as much as 26 years later, even when accounting for confounders and adolescent symptomatology. This study extends past research by exploring how both adolescent parental and peer relationships (self-reported as well as teacher reported) predict adult self-reported health. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Prediction of poor outcomes six months following total knee arthroplasty in patients awaiting surgery.

PubMed

Lungu, Eugen; Desmeules, François; Dionne, Clermont E; Belzile, Etienne L; Vendittoli, Pascal-André

2014-09-08

Identification of patients experiencing poor outcomes following total knee arthroplasty (TKA) before the intervention could allow better case selection, patient preparation and, likely, improved outcomes. The objective was to develop a preliminary prediction rule (PR) to identify patients enrolled on surgical wait lists who are at the greatest risk of poor outcomes 6 months after TKA. 141 patients scheduled for TKA were recruited prospectively from the wait lists of 3 hospitals in Quebec City, Canada. Knee pain, stiffness and function were measured 6 months after TKA with the Western Ontario and McMaster Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) and participants in the lowest quintile for the WOMAC total score were considered to have a poor outcome. Several variables measured at enrolment on the wait lists (baseline) were considered potential predictors: demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and clinical factors including pain, stiffness and functional status measured with the WOMAC. The prediction rule was built with recursive partitioning. The best prediction was provided by 5 items of the baseline WOMAC. The rule had a sensitivity of 82.1% (95% CI: 66.7-95.8), a specificity of 71.7% (95% CI: 62.8-79.8), a positive predictive value of 41.8% (95% CI: 29.7-55.0), a negative predictive value of 94.2% (95% CI: 87.1-97.5) and positive and negative likelihood ratios of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.8-4.7) and 0.3 (95% CI: 0.1-0.6) respectively. The developed PR is a promising tool to identify patients at risk of worse outcomes 6 months after TKA as it could help improve the management of these patients. Further validation of this rule is however warranted before clinical use.

Prediction of Response to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Rectal Cancer by Multiplex Kinase Activity Profiling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folkvord, Sigurd; Flatmark, Kjersti; Department of Cancer and Surgery, Norwegian Radium Hospital, Oslo University Hospital

2010-10-01

Purpose: Tumor response of rectal cancer to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) varies considerably. In experimental tumor models and clinical radiotherapy, activity of particular subsets of kinase signaling pathways seems to predict radiation response. This study aimed to determine whether tumor kinase activity profiles might predict tumor response to preoperative CRT in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods and Materials: Sixty-seven LARC patients were treated with a CRT regimen consisting of radiotherapy, fluorouracil, and, where possible, oxaliplatin. Pretreatment tumor biopsy specimens were analyzed using microarrays with kinase substrates, and the resulting substrate phosphorylation patterns were correlated with tumor response to preoperative treatmentmore » as assessed by histomorphologic tumor regression grade (TRG). A predictive model for TRG scores from phosphosubstrate signatures was obtained by partial-least-squares discriminant analysis. Prediction performance was evaluated by leave-one-out cross-validation and use of an independent test set. Results: In the patient population, 73% and 15% were scored as good responders (TRG 1-2) or intermediate responders (TRG 3), whereas 12% were assessed as poor responders (TRG 4-5). In a subset of 7 poor responders and 12 good responders, treatment outcome was correctly predicted for 95%. Application of the prediction model on the remaining patient samples resulted in correct prediction for 85%. Phosphosubstrate signatures generated by poor-responding tumors indicated high kinase activity, which was inhibited by the kinase inhibitor sunitinib, and several discriminating phosphosubstrates represented proteins derived from signaling pathways implicated in radioresistance. Conclusions: Multiplex kinase activity profiling may identify functional biomarkers predictive of tumor response to preoperative CRT in LARC.« less

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

PubMed

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Can paediatric early warning scores (PEWS) be used to guide the need for hospital admission and predict significant illness in children presenting to the emergency department? An assessment of PEWS diagnostic accuracy using sensitivity and specificity.

PubMed

Lillitos, Peter J; Hadley, Graeme; Maconochie, Ian

2016-05-01

Designed to detect early deterioration of the hospitalised child, paediatric early warning scores (PEWS) validity in the emergency department (ED) is less validated. We aimed to evaluate sensitivity and specificity of two commonly used PEWS (Brighton and COAST) in predicting hospital admission and, for the first time, significant illness. Retrospective analysis of PEWS data for paediatric ED attendances at St Mary's Hospital, London, UK, in November 2012. Patients with missing data were excluded. Diagnoses were grouped: medical and surgical. To classify diagnoses as significant, established guidelines were used and, where not available, common agreement between three acute paediatricians. 1921 patients were analysed. There were 211 admissions (11%). 1630 attendances were medical (86%) and 273 (14%) surgical. Brighton and COAST PEWS performed similarly. hospital admission: PEWS of ≥3 was specific (93%) but poorly sensitive (32%). The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was low at 0.690. Significant illness: for medical illness, PEWS ≥3 was highly specific (96%) but poorly sensitive (44%). The AUC was 0.754 and 0.755 for Brighton and COAST PEWS, respectively. Both scores performed poorly for predicting significant surgical illness (AUC 0.642). PEWS ≥3 performed well in predicting significant respiratory illness: sensitivity 75%, specificity 91%. Both Brighton and COAST PEWS scores performed similarly. A score of ≥3 has good specificity but poor sensitivity for predicting hospital admission and significant illness. Therefore, a high PEWS should be taken seriously but a low score is poor at ruling out the requirement for admission or serious underlying illness. PEWS was better at detecting significant medical illness compared with detecting the need for admission. PEWS performed poorly in detecting significant surgical illness. PEWS may be particularly useful in evaluating respiratory illness in a paediatric ED. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Impact of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, cytogenetics and monosomal karyotype on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation for myelodysplastic syndromes and secondary acute myeloid leukemia evolving from myelodysplastic syndromes: a retrospective multicenter study of the European Society of Blood and Marrow Transplantation

PubMed Central

Koenecke, Christian; Göhring, Gudrun; de Wreede, Liesbeth C.; van Biezen, Anja; Scheid, Christof; Volin, Liisa; Maertens, Johan; Finke, Jürgen; Schaap, Nicolaas; Robin, Marie; Passweg, Jakob; Cornelissen, Jan; Beelen, Dietrich; Heuser, Michael; de Witte, Theo; Kröger, Nicolaus

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the revised 5-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification on outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation in patients with myelodysplastic syndromes or secondary acute myeloid leukemia who were reported to the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation database. A total of 903 patients had sufficient cytogenetic information available at stem cell transplantation to be classified according to the 5-group classification. Poor and very poor risk according to this classification was an independent predictor of shorter relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.40 and 2.14), overall survival (hazard ratio 1.38 and 2.14), and significantly higher cumulative incidence of relapse (hazard ratio 1.64 and 2.76), compared to patients with very good, good or intermediate risk. When comparing the predictive performance of a series of Cox models both for relapse-free survival and for overall survival, a model with simplified 5-group cytogenetics (merging very good, good and intermediate cytogenetics) performed best. Furthermore, monosomal karyotype is an additional negative predictor for outcome within patients of the poor, but not the very poor risk group of the 5-group classification. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification allows patients with myelodysplastic syndromes to be separated into three groups with clearly different outcomes after stem cell transplantation. Poor and very poor risk cytogenetics were strong predictors of poor patient outcome. The new cytogenetic classification added value to prediction of patient outcome compared to prediction models using only traditional risk factors or the 3-group International Prognostic Scoring System cytogenetic classification. PMID:25552702

Systematic Evaluation of Wajima Superposition (Steady-State Concentration to Mean Residence Time) in the Estimation of Human Intravenous Pharmacokinetic Profile.

PubMed

Lombardo, Franco; Berellini, Giuliano; Labonte, Laura R; Liang, Guiqing; Kim, Sean

2016-03-01

We present a systematic evaluation of the Wajima superpositioning method to estimate the human intravenous (i.v.) pharmacokinetic (PK) profile based on a set of 54 marketed drugs with diverse structure and range of physicochemical properties. We illustrate the use of average of "best methods" for the prediction of clearance (CL) and volume of distribution at steady state (VDss) as described in our earlier work (Lombardo F, Waters NJ, Argikar UA, et al. J Clin Pharmacol. 2013;53(2):178-191; Lombardo F, Waters NJ, Argikar UA, et al. J Clin Pharmacol. 2013;53(2):167-177). These methods provided much more accurate prediction of human PK parameters, yielding 88% and 70% of the prediction within 2-fold error for VDss and CL, respectively. The prediction of human i.v. profile using Wajima superpositioning of rat, dog, and monkey time-concentration profiles was tested against the observed human i.v. PK using fold error statistics. The results showed that 63% of the compounds yielded a geometric mean of fold error below 2-fold, and an additional 19% yielded a geometric mean of fold error between 2- and 3-fold, leaving only 18% of the compounds with a relatively poor prediction. Our results showed that good superposition was observed in any case, demonstrating the predictive value of the Wajima approach, and that the cause of poor prediction of human i.v. profile was mainly due to the poorly predicted CL value, while VDss prediction had a minor impact on the accuracy of human i.v. profile prediction. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Artificial neural network classifier predicts neuroblastoma patients' outcome.

PubMed

Cangelosi, Davide; Pelassa, Simone; Morini, Martina; Conte, Massimo; Bosco, Maria Carla; Eva, Alessandra; Sementa, Angela Rita; Varesio, Luigi

2016-11-08

More than fifty percent of neuroblastoma (NB) patients with adverse prognosis do not benefit from treatment making the identification of new potential targets mandatory. Hypoxia is a condition of low oxygen tension, occurring in poorly vascularized tissues, which activates specific genes and contributes to the acquisition of the tumor aggressive phenotype. We defined a gene expression signature (NB-hypo), which measures the hypoxic status of the neuroblastoma tumor. We aimed at developing a classifier predicting neuroblastoma patients' outcome based on the assessment of the adverse effects of tumor hypoxia on the progression of the disease. Multi-layer perceptron (MLP) was trained on the expression values of the 62 probe sets constituting NB-hypo signature to develop a predictive model for neuroblastoma patients' outcome. We utilized the expression data of 100 tumors in a leave-one-out analysis to select and construct the classifier and the expression data of the remaining 82 tumors to test the classifier performance in an external dataset. We utilized the Gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) to evaluate the enrichment of hypoxia related gene sets in patients predicted with "Poor" or "Good" outcome. We utilized the expression of the 62 probe sets of the NB-Hypo signature in 182 neuroblastoma tumors to develop a MLP classifier predicting patients' outcome (NB-hypo classifier). We trained and validated the classifier in a leave-one-out cross-validation analysis on 100 tumor gene expression profiles. We externally tested the resulting NB-hypo classifier on an independent 82 tumors' set. The NB-hypo classifier predicted the patients' outcome with the remarkable accuracy of 87 %. NB-hypo classifier prediction resulted in 2 % classification error when applied to clinically defined low-intermediate risk neuroblastoma patients. The prediction was 100 % accurate in assessing the death of five low/intermediated risk patients. GSEA of tumor gene expression profile demonstrated the hypoxic status of the tumor in patients with poor prognosis. We developed a robust classifier predicting neuroblastoma patients' outcome with a very low error rate and we provided independent evidence that the poor outcome patients had hypoxic tumors, supporting the potential of using hypoxia as target for neuroblastoma treatment.

Predictors of poor adherence to treatment in inpatients with bipolar and psychotic spectrum disorders.

PubMed

Niolu, Cinzia; Barone, Ylenia; Bianciardi, Emanuela; Ribolsi, Michele; Marchetta, Claudia; Robone, Camilla; Ambrosio, Antonio; Sarchiola, Luca; Reggiardo, Giorgio; Lorenzo, Giorgio Di; Siracusano, Alberto

2015-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess possible predictors of poor adherence in patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (SD) or bipolar disorder (BD) and to evaluate the roles of attachment style and caregivers as predictive factors of adherence. The sample was composed of 178 voluntarily hospitalized inpatients: 89 diagnosed with BD (I, II), 89 with SD and other schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. All patients enrolled in the study were assessed for adherence, psychopathology, attachment style, presence of caregiver, subjective well-being during pharmacological treatment with neuroleptics, side effects following therapy, subjective attitude towards drugs, global functioning and quality of life. In patients with SD, non-adherence was associated with the absence of a caregiver, fewer years of treatment, poor insight and attitude towards drugs and fearful dimensions of attachment. In patients with BD, poor insight, anxious and social avoidant temperament traits, together with a high sense of self efficacy, were related to non-adherence. Diagnosis, type of medication and side effects were not predictive factors of adherence in either group. Interestingly, some temperament traits and dimensions of attachment predict non-adherence, indicating differences between patients with SD and BD. Considering these predictors of non-adherence and assessing adherence at the time of admission for relapse could be useful to plan an early and tailored “treatment adherence”, along with other therapeutic strategies, for patients using these predictive factors. The role of caregiver proved particularly important in relation to the therapeutic alliance. Attachment style may play a key role in predicting adherence through the therapeutic alliance with both patients and caregivers.

Phasic dopamine release in the rat nucleus accumbens predicts approach and avoidance performance

PubMed Central

Gentry, Ronny N.; Lee, Brian; Roesch, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

Dopamine (DA) is critical for reward processing, but significantly less is known about its role in punishment avoidance. Using a combined approach-avoidance task, we measured phasic DA release in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) of rats during presentation of cues that predicted reward, punishment or neutral outcomes and investigated individual differences based on avoidance performance. Here we show that DA release within a single microenvironment is higher for reward and avoidance cues compared with neutral cues and positively correlated with poor avoidance behaviour. We found that DA release delineates trial-type during sessions with good avoidance but is non-selective during poor avoidance, with high release correlating with poor performance. These data demonstrate that phasic DA is released during cued approach and avoidance within the same microenvironment and abnormal processing of value signals is correlated with poor performance. PMID:27786172

Defining Social Class Across Time and Between Groups.

PubMed

Cohen, Dov; Shin, Faith; Liu, Xi; Ondish, Peter; Kraus, Michael W

2017-11-01

We examined changes over four decades and between ethnic groups in how people define their social class. Changes included the increasing importance of income, decreasing importance of occupational prestige, and the demise of the "Victorian bargain," in which poor people who subscribed to conservative sexual and religious norms could think of themselves as middle class. The period also saw changes (among Whites) and continuity (among Black Americans) in subjective status perceptions. For Whites (and particularly poor Whites), their perceptions of enhanced social class were greatly reduced. Poor Whites now view their social class as slightly but significantly lower than their poor Black and Latino counterparts. For Black respondents, a caste-like understanding of social class persisted, as they continued to view their class standing as relatively independent of their achieved education, income, and occupation. Such achievement indicators, however, predicted Black respondents' self-esteem more than they predicted self-esteem for any other group.

Higher leukocyte count predicts 3-month poor outcome of ruptured cerebral aneurysms.

PubMed

Yao, Pei-Sen; Chen, Guo-Rong; Xie, Xue-Ling; Shang-Guan, Huang-Cheng; Gao, Jin-Zhen; Lin, Yuan-Xiang; Zheng, Shu-Fa; Lin, Zhang-Ya; Kang, De-Zhi

2018-04-11

It is not fully established whether leukocyte can predict the poor outcome for ruptured cerebral aneurysms (CA) or not. Here, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 428 patients with ruptured CA between 2010 and 2015. Patients' demographic data, including gender, age, history of smoking, alcohol, hypertension, diabetes and hypercholesterolemia, Hunt-Hess and Fisher grade, occurrence of hydrocephalus, aneurysm location, time to surgery, delayed ischemic neurological deficit (DIND) and peak leukocyte of blood test from day 1 to 3 after aneurysmal rupture were recorded and analyzed. In the multivariable analysis model, gender, Fisher grade, time to surgery and hydrocephalus were not relevant to poor outcome. However, Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were significantly associated with adverse outcome. The respective increased risks were 5.2- (OR5.24, 95% CI 1.67-16.50, p = 0.005), 6.2-(OR 6.24, 95% CI 3.55-10.99, p < 0.001) and 10.9-fold (OR 9.35, 95% CI 5.98-19.97, p < 0.001). The study revealed that Hunt-Hess grade, DIND and preoperative leukocyte count (>13.84 × 10 9 /L) were independent risk factors for poor outcome of ruptured CA at 3 months. Higher leukocyte count is a convenient and useful marker to predict 3-month poor outcome for ruptured CA.

Predictive factors for poor prognosis febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Lee, Yoon-Seon

2012-07-01

Most patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia recover rapidly without serious complications. However, it still remains a life-threatening treatment-related toxicity, and is associated with dose reductions and delays of chemotherapeutic agents that may compromise treatment outcomes. Recent developments of risk stratification enabled early discharge with oral antibiotics for low-risk patients. However, even in low-risk patients, medical complications including bacteremia could happen. The authors reviewed recent literature to provide an update on research regarding predictive factors for poor prognosis in patients with febrile neutropenia. Various prognostic factors have been suggested with controversies. Hematological parameters, prophylactic measurements and patient-specific risk factors showed inconsistent results. MASCC risk-index score, which was originally developed to identify low-risk patients, in turn showed that the lower the MASCC score, the poorer the prognosis of febrile neutropenia, with very low levels (<15), the rate of complications was high. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock commonly had procalcitonin concentration above 2.0 ng/ml, and this level should be considered at high risk of poor prognosis. Lower MASCC score and higher procalcitonin concentration can predict poor outcomes in febrile neutropenia. More research is required with regard to the other factors showing controversies.

Predicting when biliary excretion of parent drug is a major route of elimination in humans.

PubMed

Hosey, Chelsea M; Broccatelli, Fabio; Benet, Leslie Z

2014-09-01

Biliary excretion is an important route of elimination for many drugs, yet measuring the extent of biliary elimination is difficult, invasive, and variable. Biliary elimination has been quantified for few drugs with a limited number of subjects, who are often diseased patients. An accurate prediction of which drugs or new molecular entities are significantly eliminated in the bile may predict potential drug-drug interactions, pharmacokinetics, and toxicities. The Biopharmaceutics Drug Disposition Classification System (BDDCS) characterizes significant routes of drug elimination, identifies potential transporter effects, and is useful in understanding drug-drug interactions. Class 1 and 2 drugs are primarily eliminated in humans via metabolism and will not exhibit significant biliary excretion of parent compound. In contrast, class 3 and 4 drugs are primarily excreted unchanged in the urine or bile. Here, we characterize the significant elimination route of 105 orally administered class 3 and 4 drugs. We introduce and validate a novel model, predicting significant biliary elimination using a simple classification scheme. The model is accurate for 83% of 30 drugs collected after model development. The model corroborates the observation that biliarily eliminated drugs have high molecular weights, while demonstrating the necessity of considering route of administration and extent of metabolism when predicting biliary excretion. Interestingly, a predictor of potential metabolism significantly improves predictions of major elimination routes of poorly metabolized drugs. This model successfully predicts the major elimination route for poorly permeable/poorly metabolized drugs and may be applied prior to human dosing.

Magnetic resonance imaging-detected tumor response for locally advanced rectal cancer predicts survival outcomes: MERCURY experience.

PubMed

Patel, Uday B; Taylor, Fiona; Blomqvist, Lennart; George, Christopher; Evans, Hywel; Tekkis, Paris; Quirke, Philip; Sebag-Montefiore, David; Moran, Brendan; Heald, Richard; Guthrie, Ashley; Bees, Nicola; Swift, Ian; Pennert, Kjell; Brown, Gina

2011-10-01

To assess magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and pathologic staging after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer in a prospectively enrolled, multicenter study. In a prospective cohort study, 111 patients who had rectal cancer treated by neoadjuvant therapy were assessed for response by MRI and pathology staging by T, N and circumferential resection margin (CRM) status. Tumor regression grade (TRG) was also assessed by MRI. Overall survival (OS) was estimated by using the Kaplan-Meier product-limit method, and Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine associations between staging of good and poor responders on MRI or pathology and survival outcomes after controlling for patient characteristics. On multivariate analysis, the MRI-assessed TRG (mrTRG) hazard ratios (HRs) were independently significant for survival (HR, 4.40; 95% CI, 1.65 to 11.7) and disease-free survival (DFS; HR, 3.28; 95% CI, 1.22 to 8.80). Five-year survival for poor mrTRG was 27% versus 72% (P = .001), and DFS for poor mrTRG was 31% versus 64% (P = .007). Preoperative MRI-predicted CRM independently predicted local recurrence (LR; HR, 4.25; 95% CI, 1.45 to 12.51). Five-year survival for poor post-treatment pathologic T stage (ypT) was 39% versus 76% (P = .001); DFS for the same was 38% versus 84% (P = .001); and LR for the same was 27% versus 6% (P = .018). The 5-year survival for involved pCRM was 30% versus 59% (P = .001); DFS, 28 versus 62% (P = .02); and LR, 56% versus 10% (P = .001). Pathology node status did not predict outcomes. MRI assessment of TRG and CRM are imaging markers that predict survival outcomes for good and poor responders and provide an opportunity for the multidisciplinary team to offer additional treatment options before planning definitive surgery. Postoperative histopathology assessment of ypT and CRM but not post-treatment N status were important postsurgical predictors of outcome.

Usefulness of Midregional Proadrenomedullin to Predict Poor Outcome in Patients with Community Acquired Pneumonia

PubMed Central

Gordo-Remartínez, Susana; Sevillano-Fernández, José A.; Álvarez-Sala, Luis A.; Andueza-Lillo, Juan A.; de Miguel-Yanes, José M.

2015-01-01

Background midregional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) is a prognostic biomarker in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to confirm whether MR-proADM added to Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) improves the potential prognostic value of PSI alone, and tested to what extent this combination could be useful in predicting poor outcome of patients with CAP in an Emergency Department (ED). Methods Consecutive patients diagnosed with CAP were enrolled in this prospective, single-centre, observational study. We analyzed the ability of MR-proADM added to PSI to predict poor outcome using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, logistic regression and risk reclassification and comparing it with the ability of PSI alone. The primary outcome was “poor outcome”, defined as the incidence of an adverse event (ICU admission, hospital readmission, or mortality at 30 days after CAP diagnosis). Results 226 patients were included; 33 patients (14.6%) reached primary outcome. To predict primary outcome the highest area under curve (AUC) was found for PSI (0.74 [0.64-0.85]), which was not significantly higher than for MR-proADM (AUC 0.72 [0.63-0.81, p > 0.05]). The combination of PSI and MR-proADM failed to improve the predictive potential of PSI alone (AUC 0.75 [0.65-0.85, p=0.56]). Ten patients were appropriately reclassified when the combined PSI and MR-proADM model was used as compared with the model of PSI alone. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) index was statistically significant (7.69%, p = 0.03) with an improvement percentage of 3.03% (p = 0.32) for adverse event, and 4.66% (P = 0.02) for no adverse event. Conclusion MR-proADM in combination with PSI may be helpful in individual risk stratification for short-term poor outcome of CAP patients, allowing a better reclassification of patients compared with PSI alone. PMID:26030588

Post-anoxic quantitative MRI changes may predict emergence from coma and functional outcomes at discharge.

PubMed

Reynolds, Alexandra S; Guo, Xiaotao; Matthews, Elizabeth; Brodie, Daniel; Rabbani, Leroy E; Roh, David J; Park, Soojin; Claassen, Jan; Elkind, Mitchell S V; Zhao, Binsheng; Agarwal, Sachin

2017-08-01

Traditional predictors of neurological prognosis after cardiac arrest are unreliable after targeted temperature management. Absence of pupillary reflexes remains a reliable predictor of poor outcome. Diffusion-weighted imaging has emerged as a potential predictor of recovery, and here we compare imaging characteristics to pupillary exam. We identified 69 patients who had MRIs within seven days of arrest and used a semi-automated algorithm to perform quantitative volumetric analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) sequences at various thresholds. Area under receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC-AUC) were estimated to compare predictive values of quantitative MRI with pupillary exam at days 3, 5 and 7 post-arrest, for persistence of coma and functional outcomes at discharge. Cerebral Performance Category scores of 3-4 were considered poor outcome. Excluding patients where life support was withdrawn, ≥2.8% diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC of ≤650×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 68% sensitive for failure to wake up from coma before discharge. The ROC-AUC of ADC changes at ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s and ≤650×10 -6 mm 2 /s were significantly superior in predicting failure to wake up from coma compared to bilateral absence of pupillary reflexes. Among survivors, >0.01% of diffusion restriction of the entire brain at an ADC ≤450×10 -6 m 2 /s was 100% specific and 46% sensitive for poor functional outcome at discharge. The ROC curve predicting poor functional outcome at ADC ≤450×10 -6 mm 2 /s had an AUC of 0.737 (0.574-0.899, p=0.04). Post-anoxic diffusion changes using quantitative brain MRI may aid in predicting persistent coma and poor functional outcomes at hospital discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Thermal niche estimators and the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with climate change

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Fernández, David; Rizzo, Valeria; Cieslak, Alexandra; Faille, Arnaud; Fresneda, Javier; Ribera, Ignacio

2016-01-01

For management strategies in the context of global warming, accurate predictions of species response are mandatory. However, to date most predictions are based on niche (bioclimatic) models that usually overlook biotic interactions, behavioral adjustments or adaptive evolution, and assume that species can disperse freely without constraints. The deep subterranean environment minimises these uncertainties, as it is simple, homogeneous and with constant environmental conditions. It is thus an ideal model system to study the effect of global change in species with poor dispersal capabilities. We assess the potential fate of a lineage of troglobitic beetles under global change predictions using different approaches to estimate their thermal niche: bioclimatic models, rates of thermal niche change estimated from a molecular phylogeny, and data from physiological studies. Using bioclimatic models, at most 60% of the species were predicted to have suitable conditions in 2080. Considering the rates of thermal niche change did not improve this prediction. However, physiological data suggest that subterranean species have a broad thermal tolerance, allowing them to stand temperatures never experienced through their evolutionary history. These results stress the need of experimental approaches to assess the capability of poor dispersal species to cope with temperatures outside those they currently experience. PMID:26983802

Prediction of Outcome From Adult Bacterial Meningitis in a High-HIV-Seroprevalence, Resource-Poor Setting Using the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS).

PubMed

Wall, Emma C; Mukaka, Mavuto; Scarborough, Matthew; Ajdukiewicz, Katherine M A; Cartwright, Katharine E; Nyirenda, Mulinda; Denis, Brigitte; Allain, Theresa J; Faragher, Brian; Lalloo, David G; Heyderman, Robert S

2017-02-15

Acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) in adults residing in resource-poor countries is associated with mortality rates >50%. To improve outcome, interventional trials and standardized clinical algorithms are urgently required. To optimize these processes, we developed and validated an outcome prediction tool to identify ABM patients at greatest risk of death. We derived a nomogram using mortality predictors derived from a logistic regression model of a discovery database of adult Malawian patients with ABM (n = 523 [65%] cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] culture positive). We validated the nomogram internally using a bootstrap procedure and subsequently used the nomogram scores to further interpret the effects of adjunctive dexamethasone and glycerol using clinical trial data from Malawi. ABM mortality at 6-week follow-up was 54%. Five of 15 variables tested were strongly associated with poor outcome (CSF culture positivity, CSF white blood cell count, hemoglobin, Glasgow Coma Scale, and pulse rate), and were used in the derivation of the Malawi Adult Meningitis Score (MAMS) nomogram. The C-index (area under the curve) was 0.76 (95% confidence interval, .71-.80) and calibration was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow C-statistic = 5.48, df = 8, P = .705). Harmful effects of adjunctive glycerol were observed in groups with relatively low predicted risk of poor outcome (25%-50% risk): Case Fatality Rate of 21% in the placebo group and 52% in the glycerol group (P < .001). This effect was not seen with adjunctive dexamethasone. MAMS provides a novel tool for predicting prognosis and improving interpretation of ABM clinical trials by risk stratification in resource-poor settings. Whether MAMS can be applied to non-HIV-endemic countries requires further evaluation. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

Cross-sectional analysis of food choice frequency, sleep confounding beverages, and psychological distress predictors of sleep quality.

PubMed

Knowlden, Adam P; Burns, Maranda; Harcrow, Andy; Shewmake, Meghan E

2016-03-16

Poor sleep quality is a significant public health problem. The role of nutrition in predicting sleep quality is a relatively unexplored area of inquiry. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the capacity of 10 food choice categories, sleep confounding beverages, and psychological distress to predict the sleep quality of college students. A logistic regression model comprising 10 food choice variables (healthy proteins, unhealthy proteins, healthy dairy, unhealthy dairy, healthy grains, unhealthy grains, healthy fruits and vegetables, unhealthy empty calories, healthy beverages, unhealthy beverages), sleep confounding beverages (caffeinated/alcoholic beverages), as well as psychological distress (low, moderate, serious distress) was computed to determine the capacity of the variables to predict sleep quality (good/poor). The odds of poor sleep quality were 32.4% lower for each unit of increased frequency of healthy proteins consumed (p<0.001; OR=0.676), 14.1% lower for each unit of increased frequency of healthy dairy food choices consumed (p=0.024; OR=0.859), 13.1% higher for each unit of increased frequency of empty calorie food choices consumed (p=0.003; OR=1.131), and 107.3% higher for those classified in the moderate psychological distress (p=0.016; OR=2.073). Collectively, healthy proteins, healthy dairy, unhealthy empty calories, and moderate psychological distress were moderately predictive of sleep quality in the sample (Nagelkerke R2=23.8%). Results of the study suggested higher frequency of consumption of healthy protein and healthy dairy food choices reduced the odds of poor sleep quality, while higher consumption of empty calories and moderate psychological distress increased the odds of poor sleep quality.

Child maltreatment, parent alcohol and drug-related problems, polydrug problems, and parenting practices: a test of gender differences and four theoretical perspectives.

PubMed

Locke, Thomas F; Newcomb, Michael

2004-03-01

The authors tested how adverse childhood experiences (child maltreatment and parent alcohol- and drug-related problems) and adult polydrug use (as a mediator) predict poor parenting in a community sample (237 mothers and 81 fathers). These relationships were framed within several theoretical perspectives, including observational learning, impaired functioning, self-medication, and parentification-pseudomaturity. Structural models revealed that child maltreatment predicted poor parenting practices among mothers. Parent alcohol- and drug-related problems had an indirect detrimental influence on mothers' parenting and practices through self-drug problems. Among fathers, emotional neglect experienced as a child predicted lack of parental warmth more parental neglect, and sexual abuse experienced as a child predicted a rejecting style of parenting.

Prediction of High-Lift Flows using Turbulent Closure Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rumsey, Christopher L.; Gatski, Thomas B.; Ying, Susan X.; Bertelrud, Arild

1997-01-01

The flow over two different multi-element airfoil configurations is computed using linear eddy viscosity turbulence models and a nonlinear explicit algebraic stress model. A subset of recently-measured transition locations using hot film on a McDonnell Douglas configuration is presented, and the effect of transition location on the computed solutions is explored. Deficiencies in wake profile computations are found to be attributable in large part to poor boundary layer prediction on the generating element, and not necessarily inadequate turbulence modeling in the wake. Using measured transition locations for the main element improves the prediction of its boundary layer thickness, skin friction, and wake profile shape. However, using measured transition locations on the slat still yields poor slat wake predictions. The computation of the slat flow field represents a key roadblock to successful predictions of multi-element flows. In general, the nonlinear explicit algebraic stress turbulence model gives very similar results to the linear eddy viscosity models.

Predictors of maternal health services utilization by poor, rural women: a comparative study in Indian States of Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

PubMed

Vora, Kranti Suresh; Koblinsky, Sally A; Koblinsky, Marge A

2015-07-31

India leads all nations in numbers of maternal deaths, with poor, rural women contributing disproportionately to the high maternal mortality ratio. In 2005, India launched the world's largest conditional cash transfer scheme, Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), to increase poor women's access to institutional delivery, anticipating that facility-based birthing would decrease deaths. Indian states have taken different approaches to implementing JSY. Tamil Nadu adopted JSY with a reorganization of its public health system, and Gujarat augmented JSY with the state-funded Chiranjeevi Yojana (CY) scheme, contracting with private physicians for delivery services. Given scarce evidence of the outcomes of these approaches, especially in states with more optimal health indicators, this cross-sectional study examined the role of JSY/CY and other healthcare system and social factors in predicting poor, rural women's use of maternal health services in Gujarat and Tamil Nadu. Using the District Level Household Survey (DLHS)-3, the sample included 1584 Gujarati and 601 Tamil rural women in the lowest two wealth quintiles. Multivariate logistic regression analyses examined associations between JSY/CY and other salient health system, socio-demographic, and obstetric factors with three outcomes: adequate antenatal care, institutional delivery, and Cesarean-section. Tamil women reported greater use of maternal healthcare services than Gujarati women. JSY/CY participation predicted institutional delivery in Gujarat (AOR = 3.9), but JSY assistance failed to predict institutional delivery in Tamil Nadu, where mothers received some cash for home births under another scheme. JSY/CY assistance failed to predict adequate antenatal care, which was not incentivized. All-weather road access predicted institutional delivery in both Tamil Nadu (AOR = 3.4) and Gujarat (AOR = 1.4). Women's education predicted institutional delivery and Cesarean-section in Tamil Nadu, while husbands' education predicted institutional delivery in Gujarat. Overall, assistance from health financing schemes, good road access to health facilities, and socio-demographic and obstetric factors were associated with differential use of maternity health services by poor, rural women in the two states. Policymakers and practitioners should promote financing schemes to increase access, including consideration of incentives for antenatal care, and address health system and social factors in designing state-level interventions to promote safe motherhood.

Lack of Early Improvement Predicts Poor Outcome Following Acute Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Yogendrakumar, Vignan; Smith, Eric E; Demchuk, Andrew M; Aviv, Richard I; Rodriguez-Luna, David; Molina, Carlos A; Silva Blas, Yolanda; Dzialowski, Imanuel; Kobayashi, Adam; Boulanger, Jean-Martin; Lum, Cheemun; Gubitz, Gord; Padma, Vasantha; Roy, Jayanta; Kase, Carlos S; Bhatia, Rohit; Ali, Myzoon; Lyden, Patrick; Hill, Michael D; Dowlatshahi, Dar

2018-04-01

There are limited data as to what degree of early neurologic change best relates to outcome in acute intracerebral hemorrhage. We aimed to derive and validate a threshold for early postintracerebral hemorrhage change that best predicts 90-day outcomes. Derivation: retrospective analysis of collated clinical stroke trial data (Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive). retrospective analysis of a prospective multicenter cohort study (Prediction of haematoma growth and outcome in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage using the CT-angiography spot sign [PREDICT]). Neurocritical and ICUs. Patients with acute intracerebral hemorrhage presenting less than 6 hours. Derivation: 552 patients; validation: 275 patients. None. We generated a receiver operating characteristic curve for the association between 24-hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change and clinical outcome. The primary outcome was a modified Rankin Scale score of 4-6 at 90 days; secondary outcomes were other modified Rankin Scale score ranges (modified Rankin Scale, 2-6, 3-6, 5-6, 6). We employed Youden's J Index to select optimal cut points and calculated sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. We determined independent predictors via multivariable logistic regression. The derived definitions were validated in the PREDICT cohort. Twenty-four-hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change was strongly associated with 90-day outcome with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.75. Youden's method showed an optimum cut point at -0.5, corresponding to National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale change of greater than or equal to 0 (a lack of clinical improvement), which was seen in 46%. Early neurologic change accurately predicted poor outcome when defined as greater than or equal to 0 (sensitivity, 65%; specificity, 73%; positive predictive value, 70%; adjusted odds ratio, 5.05 [CI, 3.25-7.85]) or greater than or equal to 4 (sensitivity, 19%; specificity, 98%; positive predictive value, 91%; adjusted odds ratio, 12.24 [CI, 4.08-36.66]). All definitions reproduced well in the validation cohort. Lack of clinical improvement at 24 hours robustly predicted poor outcome and showed good discrimination for individual patients who would do poorly. These findings are useful for prognostication and may also present as a potential early surrogate outcome for future intracerebral hemorrhage treatment trials.

Interoception in anxiety and depression

PubMed Central

Stein, Murray B.

2010-01-01

We review the literature on interoception as it relates to depression and anxiety, with a focus on belief, and alliesthesia. The connection between increased but noisy afferent interoceptive input, self-referential and belief-based states, and top-down modulation of poorly predictive signals is integrated into a neuroanatomical and processing model for depression and anxiety. The advantage of this conceptualization is the ability to specifically examine the interface between basic interoception, self-referential belief-based states, and enhanced top-down modulation to attenuate poor predictability. We conclude that depression and anxiety are not simply interoceptive disorders but are altered interoceptive states as a consequence of noisily amplified self-referential interoceptive predictive belief states. PMID:20490545

Poor Self-Control and Harsh Punishment in Childhood Prospectively Predict Borderline Personality Symptoms in Adolescent Girls

PubMed Central

Hallquist, Michael N.; Hipwell, Alison E.; Stepp, Stephanie D.

2015-01-01

Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. PMID:25961815

Poor self-control and harsh punishment in childhood prospectively predict borderline personality symptoms in adolescent girls.

PubMed

Hallquist, Michael N; Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie D

2015-08-01

Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

A Valuable Tool in Predicting Poor Outcome due to Sepsis in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit: Tp-e/QT Ratio.

PubMed

Ozdemir, Rahmi; Isguder, Rana; Kucuk, Mehmet; Karadeniz, Cem; Ceylan, Gokhan; Katipoglu, Nagehan; Yilmazer, Murat Muhtar; Yozgat, Yilmaz; Mese, Timur; Agin, Hasan

2016-10-01

To assess the feasibility of 12-lead electrocardiographic (ECG) measures such as P wave dispersion (PWd), QT interval, QT dispersion (QTd), Tp-e interval, Tp-e/QT and Tp-e/QTc ratio in predicting poor outcome in patients diagnosed with sepsis in pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). Ninety-three patients diagnosed with sepsis, severe sepsis or septic shock and 103 age- and sex-matched healthy children were enrolled into the study. PWd, QT interval, QTd, Tp-e interval and Tp-e/QT, Tp-e/QTc ratios were obtained from a 12-lead electrocardiogram. PWd, QTd, Tp-e interval and Tp-e/QT, Tp-e/QTc ratios were significantly higher in septic patients compared with the controls. During the study period, 41 patients had died. In multivariate logistic regression analyses, only Tp-e/QT ratio was found to be an independent predictor of mortality. The ECG measurements can predict the poor outcome in patients with sepsis. The Tp-e/QT ratio may be a valuable tool in predicting mortality for patients with sepsis in the PICU. © The Author [2016]. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Early predicted time to normalization of tumor markers predicts outcome in poor-prognosis nonseminomatous germ cell tumors.

PubMed

Fizazi, Karim; Culine, Stéphane; Kramar, Andrew; Amato, Robert J; Bouzy, Jeannine; Chen, Isan; Droz, Jean-Pierre; Logothetis, Christopher J

2004-10-01

The prognostic relevance of the rate of decline of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) during the first 3 weeks of chemotherapy for nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) was studied in the context of the International Germ Cell Cancer Collaborative Group (IGCCCG) classification. Data from 653 patients prospectively recruited in clinical trials were studied. Tumor markers were obtained before chemotherapy and 3 weeks later. Decline rates were calculated using a logarithmic formula and expressed as a predicted time to normalization (TTN). A favorable TTN was defined when both AFP and HCG had a favorable decline rate, including cases with normal values. The median follow-up was 50 months (range, 2 to 151 months). Tumor decline rate expressed as a predicted TTN was associated with both progression-free survival (PFS; P <.0001) and overall survival (OS; P <.0001). The 4-year PFS rates were 64% and 38% in patients from the poor-prognosis group who had a favorable and an unfavorable TTN, respectively. The 4-year OS rates were 83% and 58%, respectively. This effect was independent from the initial tumor marker values, the primary tumor site, and the presence of nonpulmonary visceral metastases: tumor marker decline rate remained a strong predictor for both PFS (hazard ratio = 2.5; P =.01) and OS (hazard ratio = 4.6; P =.002) in patients from the IGCCCG poor-prognosis group in multivariate analysis. Early predicted time to tumor marker normalization is an independent prognostic factor in patients with poor-prognosis NSGCT and may be a useful tool in the therapeutic management of these patients.

Black Hole Sign Predicts Poor Outcome in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Li, Qi; Yang, Wen-Song; Chen, Sheng-Li; Lv, Fu-Rong; Lv, Fa-Jin; Hu, Xi; Zhu, Dan; Cao, Du; Wang, Xing-Chen; Li, Rui; Yuan, Liang; Qin, Xin-Yue; Xie, Peng

2018-01-01

In spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), black hole sign has been proposed as a promising imaging marker that predicts hematoma expansion in patients with ICH. The aim of our study was to investigate whether admission CT black hole sign predicts hematoma growth in patients with ICH. From July 2011 till February 2016, patients with spontaneous ICH who underwent baseline CT scan within 6 h of symptoms onset and follow-up CT scan were recruited into the study. The presence of black hole sign on admission non-enhanced CT was independently assessed by 2 readers. The functional outcome was assessed using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) at 90 days. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the association between the presence of the black hole sign and functional outcome. A total of 225 patients (67.6% male, mean age 60.3 years) were included in our study. Black hole sign was identified in 32 of 225 (14.2%) patients on admission CT scan. The multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that age, intraventricular hemorrhage, baseline ICH volume, admission Glasgow Coma Scale score, and presence of black hole sign on baseline CT independently predict poor functional outcome at 90 days. There are significantly more patients with a poor functional outcome (defined as mRS ≥4) among patients with black hole sign than those without (84.4 vs. 32.1%, p < 0.001; OR 8.19, p = 0.001). The CT black hole sign independently predicts poor outcome in patients with ICH. Early identification of black hole sign is useful in prognostic stratification and may serve as a potential therapeutic target for anti-expansion clinical trials. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Quality of life before hyperhidrosis treatment as a predictive factor for oxybutynin treatment outcomes in palmar and axillary hyperhidrosis.

PubMed

Wolosker, Nelson; Krutman, Mariana; Teivelis, Marcelo P; Campbell, Taiz P D A; Kauffman, Paulo; de Campos, José Ribas M; Puech-Leão, Pedro

2014-05-01

Studies have suggested that quality of life (QOL) evaluation before video-assisted thoracoscopic sympathectomy for patients with hyperhidrosis may serve as a predictive factor for positive postoperative outcomes. Our study aims to analyze if this tendency is also observed in patients treated with oxybutynin for palmar and axillary hyperhidrosis. Five hundred sixty-five patients who submitted to a protocol treatment with oxybutynin were retrospectively analyzed between January 2007 and January 2012 and were divided into 2 groups according to QOL assessment before treatment. The groups consisted of 176 patients with "poor" and 389 patients with "very poor" QOL evaluation before oxybutynin treatment. Outcomes involving improvements in QOL and clinical progression of hyperhidrosis were evaluated using a validated clinical questionnaire that was specifically designed to assess satisfaction in patients with excessive sweating. Improvements in hyperhidrosis after oxybutynin were observed in 65.5% of patients with very poor pretreatment QOL scores and in 75% of patients with poor pretreatment QOL scores, and the only adverse event associated with oxybutynin treatment was dry mouth, which was observed with greater intensity in patients with very poor initial QOL evaluation. Improvements in hyperhidrosis after oxybutynin treatment were similar in both groups, suggesting that QOL before treatment is not a predictive factor for clinical outcomes, contrasting with surgical results that disclose significantly better results in patients with initially poorer QOL analysis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efffect of Aeroallergen Sensitization on Asthma Control in African-American Teens with Persistent Asthma

EPA Science Inventory

In African-American adolescents with persistent asthma, allergic profile predicted the likelihood of having poorly controlled asthma despite guidelines-directed therapies. Our results suggest that tree and weed pollen sensitization are independent risk factors for poorly controll...

Prediction of Recovery from Coma After CPR

MedlinePlus

... to pain. There is good evidence* that myoclonus status epilepticus within the first day after CPR accurately predicts poor recovery from coma. Myoclonus status epilepticus is a constant twitching of muscles, including the ...

Mental health, sleep quality, drinking motives, and alcohol-related consequences: a path-analytic model.

PubMed

Kenney, Shannon R; Lac, Andrew; Labrie, Joseph W; Hummer, Justin F; Pham, Andy

2013-11-01

Poor mental health, sleep problems, drinking motivations, and high-risk drinking are prevalent among college students. However, research designed to explicate the interrelationships among these health risk behaviors is lacking. This study was designed to assess the direct and indirect influences of poor mental health (a latent factor consisting of depression, anxiety, and stress) to alcohol use and alcohol-related consequences through the mediators of global sleep quality and drinking motives in a comprehensive model. Participants were 1,044 heavy-drinking college students (66.3% female) who completed online surveys. A hybrid structural equation model tested hypotheses involving relations leading from poor mental health to drinking motives and poorer global sleep quality to drinking outcomes. Results showed that poor mental health significantly predicted all four subscales of drinking motivations (social, coping, conformity, and enhancement) as well as poor sleep. Most of the drinking motives and poor sleep were found to explain alcohol use and negative alcohol consequences. Poor sleep predicted alcohol consequences, even after controlling for all other variables in the model. The hypothesized mediational pathways were examined with tests of indirect effects. This is the first study to assess concomitantly the relationships among three vital health-related domains (mental health, sleep behavior, and alcohol risk) in college students. Findings offer important implications for college personnel and interventionists interested in reducing alcohol risk by focusing on alleviating mental health problems and poor sleep quality.

Proton MRS in acute traumatic brain injury: role for glutamate/glutamine and choline for outcome prediction.

PubMed

Shutter, Lori; Tong, Karen A; Holshouser, Barbara A

2004-12-01

Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) is being used to evaluate individuals with acute traumatic brain injury and several studies have shown that changes in certain brain metabolites (N-acetylaspartate, choline) are associated with poor neurologic outcomes. The majority of previous MRS studies have been obtained relatively late after injury and none have examined the role of glutamate/ glutamine (Glx). We conducted a prospective MRS study of 42 severely injured adults to measure quantitative metabolite changes early (7 days) after injury in normal appearing brain. We used these findings to predict long-term neurologic outcome and to determine if MRS data alone or in combination with clinical outcome variables provided better prediction of long-term outcomes. We found that glutamate/glutamine (Glx) and choline (Cho) were significantly elevated in occipital gray and parietal white matter early after injury in patients with poor long-term (6-12-month) outcomes. Glx and Cho ratios predicted long-term outcome with 94% accuracy and when combined with the motor Glasgow Coma Scale score provided the highest predictive accuracy (97%). Somatosensory evoked potentials were not as accurate as MRS data in predicting outcome. Elevated Glx and Cho are more sensitive indicators of injury and predictors of poor outcome when spectroscopy is done early after injury. This may be a reflection of early excitotoxic injury (i.e., elevated Glx) and of injury associated with membrane disruption (i.e., increased Cho) secondary to diffuse axonal injury.

EEG, evoked potentials and pulsed Doppler in asphyxiated term infants.

PubMed

Julkunen, Mia K; Himanen, Sari-Leena; Eriksson, Kai; Janas, Martti; Luukkaala, Tiina; Tammela, Outi

2014-09-01

To evaluate electroencephalograms (EEG), evoked potentials (EPs) and Doppler findings in the cerebral arteries as predictors of a 1-year outcome in asphyxiated newborn infants. EEG and EPs (brain stem auditory (BAEP), somatosensory (SEP), visual (VEP) evoked potentials) were assessed in 30 asphyxiated and 30 healthy term infants during the first days (range 1-8). Cerebral blood flow velocities (CBFV) were measured from the cerebral arteries using pulsed Doppler at ∼24h of age. EEG, EPs, Doppler findings, symptoms of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) and their combination were evaluated in predicting a 1-year outcome. An abnormal EEG background predicted poor outcome in the asphyxia group with a sensitivity of 67% and 81% specificity, and an abnormal SEP with 75% and 79%, respectively. Combining increased systolic CBFV (mean+3SD) with abnormal EEG or SEP improved the specificity, but not the sensitivity. The predictive values of abnormal BAEP and VEP were poor. Normal EEG and SEP predicted good outcome in the asphyxia group with sensitivities from 79% to 81%. The combination of normal EEG, normal SEP and systolic CBFV<3SD predicted good outcome with a sensitivity of 74% and 100% specificity. Combining abnormal EEG or EPs findings with increased systolic CBFV did not improve prediction of a poor 1-year outcome of asphyxiated infants. Normal EEG and normal SEP combined with systolic CBFV<3SD at about 24 h can be valuable in the prediction of normal 1-year outcome. Combining systolic CBFV at 24 h with EEG and SEP examinations can be of use in the prediction of normal 1-year outcome among asphyxiated infants. Copyright © 2014 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated assessment of early hypoxic brain edema in non-enhanced CT predicts outcome in patients after cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Hanning, Uta; Sporns, Peter Bernhard; Lebiedz, Pia; Niederstadt, Thomas; Zoubi, Tarek; Schmidt, Rene; Knecht, Stefan; Heindel, Walter; Kemmling, André

2016-07-01

Early prediction of potential neurological recovery in patients after cardiac arrest is challenging. Recent studies suggest that the densitrometic gray-white matter ratio (GWR) determined from cranial computed tomography (CT) scans may be a reliable predictor of poor outcome. We evaluated an automated, rater independent method to determine GWR in CT as an early objective imaging predictor of clinical outcome. We analyzed imaging data of 84 patients after cardiac arrest that underwent noncontrast CT within 24h after arrest. To determine GWR in CT we applied two methods using a recently published automated probabilistic gray-white matter segmentation algorithm (GWR_aut) and conventional manual measurements within gray-white regions of interest (GWR_man). Neurological outcome was graded by the cerebral performance category (CPC). As part of standard routine CPC was assessed by the treating physician in the intensive care unit at admission and at discharge to normal ward. The performance of GWR measures (automated and manual) to predict the binary clinical endpoints of poor (CPC3-5) and good outcome (CPC1-2) was assessed by ROC analysis with increasing discrimination thresholds. Results of GWR_aut were compared to GWR_man of two raters. Of 84 patients, 55 (65%) showed a poor outcome. ROC curve analysis revealed reliable outcome prediction of GWR_aut (AUC 0.860) and GWR_man (AUC 0.707 and 0.699, respectively). Predictive power of GWR_aut was higher than GWR_man by each rater (p=0.019 and p=0.021, respectively) at an optimal cut-off of 1.084 to predict poor outcome (optimal criterion with 92.7% sensitivity, 72.4% specificity). Interrater reliability of GWR_man by intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was moderate (0.551). Automated quantification of GWR in CT may be used as an objective observer-independent imaging marker for outcome in patients after cardiac arrest. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emotional Disturbance and Chronic Low Back Pain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCreary, Charles P.; And Others

1980-01-01

Patients high in alientation and distrust may be poor compliers. Because only the somatic concern dimension predicted outcome, a single scale that measures this characteristic may be sufficient for effective identification of the potential good v poor responders to conservative treatment of low back pain. (Author)

Neurologic examination at 24–48 hours predicts functional outcomes in basilar artery occlusion stroke

PubMed Central

Rangaraju, Srikant; Jovin, Tudor G.; Frankel, Michael; Schonewille, Wouter J.; Algra, Ale; Kappelle, L. Jaap; Nogueira, Raul G.

2016-01-01

Background and Purpose Accurate long-term outcome prognostication in basilar artery occlusion (BAO) strokes may guide clinical management in the subacute stage. We determine the prognostic value of the follow-up neurologic examination using the NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) and identify 24–48 hours NIHSS risk categories in BAO patients. Methods Participants of an observational registry of radiologically-confirmed acute BAO (BASICS) with prospectively collected 24–48 hours NIHSS and 1-month modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores were included. Uni- and multivariable modeling were performed to identify independent predictors of poor outcome. Predictive powers of baseline and 24–48 hour NIHSS for poor outcome (mRS 4–6) and 1-month mortality were determined by Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was performed to identify risk groups. Results 376 of 619 BASICS participants were included of whom 65.4% had poor outcome. In multivariable analyses, 24–48 hours NIHSS (OR=1.28 [1.21–1.35]), history of minor stroke (OR=2.64 [1.04–6.74], time to treatment >6 hours (OR=3.07 [1.35–6.99]) and age (OR 1.02 [0.99–1.04] were retained in the final model as predictors of poor outcome. Prognostic power of 24–48 hours NIHSS was higher than baseline NIHSS for 1-month poor outcome (AUC 0.92 vs. 0.75) and mortality (AUC 0.85 vs. 0.72). CART analysis identified five 24–48 hour NIHSS risk categories with poor outcome rates of 9.4% (NIHSS 0–4), 36% (NIHSS 5–11), 84.3% (NIHSS 12–22), 96.1% (NIHSS 23–27) and 100% (NIHSS≥28). Conclusion 24–48 hour NIHSS accurately predicts 1-month poor outcome and mortality and represents a clinically valuable prognostic tool for the care of BAO patients. PMID:27586683

Psychosocial mechanisms linking the social environment to mental health in African Americans

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resource-poor social environments predict poor health, but the mechanisms and processes linking the social environment to psychological health and well-being remain unclear. This study explored psychosocial mediators of the association between the social environment and mental health in African Amer...

Esophageal Dysmotility in Patients following Total Laryngectomy.

PubMed

Zhang, Teng; Maclean, Julia; Szczesniak, Michal; Bertrand, Paul P; Quon, Harry; Tsang, Raymond K; Wu, Peter I; Graham, Peter; Cook, Ian J

2018-02-01

Objectives Dysphagia is common in total laryngectomees, with some symptoms suggesting esophageal dysmotility. Tracheoesophageal (TE) phonation requires effective esophagopharyngeal air passage. Hence, esophageal dysmotility may affect deglutition or TE phonation. This study aimed to determine (1) the characteristics of esophageal dysmotility in laryngectomees, (2) whether clinical history is sensitive in detecting esophageal dysmotility, and (3) the relationship between esophageal dysmotility and TE prosthesis dysfunction. Study Design Multidisciplinary cross-sectional study. Setting Tertiary academic hospital. Subjects and Methods For 31 participants undergone total laryngectomy 1 to 12 years prior, clinical histories were taken by a gastroenterologist and a speech pathologist experienced in managing dysphagia. Esophageal high-resolution manometry was performed and analyzed using Chicago Classification v3.0. Results Interpretable manometric studies were obtained in 23 (1 normal manometry). Esophageal dysmotility patterns included achalasia, esophagogastric junction outflow obstruction, diffuse esophageal spasm, and other major (30%) and minor (50%) peristaltic disorders. The sensitivity of predicting any esophageal dysmotility was 28%, but it is noteworthy that patients with achalasia and diffuse esophageal spasm (DES) were predicted. Two of 4 participants with TE puncture leakage had poor esophageal clearance. Of 20 TE speakers, 12 had voice problems, no correlation between poor voice, and any dysmotility pattern. Conclusions Peristaltic and lower esophageal sphincter dysfunction are common in laryngectomees. Clinical history, while not predictive of minor motor abnormalities, predicted correctly cases with treatable spastic motor disorders. Dysmotility was not associated with poor phonation, although TE puncture leakage might be linked to poor esophageal clearance. Esophageal dysmotility should be considered in the laryngectomees with persisting dysphagia or leaking TE puncture.

Predictive Models of Liver Cancer

EPA Science Inventory

Predictive models of chemical-induced liver cancer face the challenge of bridging causative molecular mechanisms to adverse clinical outcomes. The latent sequence of intervening events from chemical insult to toxicity are poorly understood because they span multiple levels of bio...

Poor sleep in relation to natural menopause: a population-based 14-year follow-up of midlife women.

PubMed

Freeman, Ellen W; Sammel, Mary D; Gross, Stephanie A; Pien, Grace W

2015-07-01

This study aims to estimate the prevalence and predictors of moderate/severe poor sleep in relation to the final menstrual period (FMP) in midlife women. Annual assessments were conducted in a population-based cohort of 255 women. All were premenopausal at cohort enrollment and reached natural menopause during the 16-year follow-up. The outcome measure was severity of poor sleep, as reported by participants in annual interviews for 16 years and as evaluated in relation to the FMP. The annual prevalence of moderate/severe poor sleep largely ranged from about 28% to 35%, with no significant differences in any year relative to the FMP for the sample overall. When sleep status was stratified at premenopausal baseline, premenopausal sleep status strongly predicted poor sleep around the FMP. Women with moderate/severe poor sleep in premenopause were approximately 3.5 times more likely to have moderate/severe poor sleep around menopause than those with no poor sleep at baseline in adjusted analysis (odds ratio, 3.58; 95% CI, 2.50-5.11; P < 0.0001), whereas mild poor sleepers in premenopause were approximately 1.5 times more likely to have moderate/severe poor sleep around menopause (odds ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 0.99-2.47; P = 0.053). There was no significant association between poor sleep and time relative to the FMP among women who had no poor sleep at premenopausal baseline. Hot flashes were significantly associated with poor sleep (odds ratio, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.44-2.21; P < 0.0001 in adjusted analysis) but had no interaction with baseline sleep severity (interaction P = 0.25), indicating that hot flashes contributed to poor sleep regardless of baseline sleep status. Findings show a high prevalence of moderate/severe poor sleep in midlife women, with only a small "at-risk" subgroup having a significant increase in poor sleep in relation to the FMP. Sleep status at premenopausal baseline and concurrent hot flashes strongly and consistently predict poor sleep in the menopausal transition. Overall, poor sleep does not increase around the FMP and frequently occurs in the absence of hot flashes, indicating that sleep difficulties in the menopausal transition in generally healthy women are not simply associated with ovarian decline.

Poor Sleep in Relation to Natural Menopause: A Population-Based 14-Year Follow-up of Mid-Life Women

PubMed Central

Freeman, Ellen W.; Sammel, Mary D.; Gross, Stephanie A.; Pien, Grace W.

2014-01-01

Objective To estimate the prevalence and predictors of moderate/severe poor sleep in relation to the final menstrual period (FMP) of mid-life women. Methods Annual assessments were conducted in a population-based cohort of 255 women. All were premenopausal at cohort enrollment and reached natural menopause during the 16-year follow-up. The outcome measure was the severity of poor sleep, as reported by the participants in annual interviews for 16 years and evaluated in relation to the FMP. Results The annual prevalence of moderate/severe poor sleep largely ranged from about 28% to 35%, with no significant differences in any year relative to the FMP for the sample overall. When sleep status was stratified at the premenopausal baseline, the premenopausal sleep status strongly predicted poor sleep around the FMP. Women with moderate/severe poor sleep when premenopausal were approximately 3 ½ times more likely to have moderate/severe poor sleep around menopause compared to those with no poor sleep at baseline in adjusted analysis (OR 3.58, 95% CI: 2.50-5.11, P<0.0001), while mild poor sleepers premenopause were approximately 1 ½ times more likely to have moderate/severe poor sleep around menopause (OR 1.57, 95% CI: 0.99-2.47, P=0.053). There was no significant association between poor sleep and time relative to the FMP among women who had no poor sleep at the premenopausal baseline. Hot flashes were significantly associated with poor sleep (OR 1.79, 95% CI: 1.44-2.21, P<0.0001 in adjusted analysis), but had no interaction with baseline sleep severity (interaction P=0.25), indicating that hot flashes contributed to poor sleep regardless of baseline sleep status. Conclusion The findings showed a high prevalence of moderate/severe poor sleep in mid-life women, with only a small “at risk” subgroup having a significant increase in poor sleep in relation to the FMP. Sleep status at the premenopausal baseline and concurrent hot flashes strongly and consistently predicted poor sleep in the menopause transition. Overall, poor sleep did not increase around the FMP and frequently occurred in the absence of hot flashes, indicating that sleep difficulties in the menopause transition in generally healthy women were not simply associated with ovarian decline. PMID:25549066

Predicting Handwriting Difficulties through Spelling Processes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodríguez, Cristina; Villarroel, Rebeca

2017-01-01

This study examined whether spelling tasks contribute to the prediction of the handwriting status of children with poor and good handwriting skills in a cross-sectional study with 276 Spanish children from Grades 1 and 3. The main hypothesis was that the spelling tasks would predict the handwriting status of the children, although this influence…

Chronic and Acute Stress, Gender, and Serotonin Transporter Gene-Environment Interactions Predicting Depression Symptoms in Youth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia A.; Keenan-Miller, Danielle; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Najman, Jake M.

2010-01-01

Background: Many recent studies of serotonin transporter gene by environment effects predicting depression have used stress assessments with undefined or poor psychometric methods, possibly contributing to wide variation in findings. The present study attempted to distinguish between effects of acute and chronic stress to predict depressive…

Clinical Value of Dorsal Medulla Oblongata Involvement Detected with Conventional MRI for Prediction of Outcome in Children with Enterovirus 71-related Brainstem Encephalitis.

PubMed

Liu, Kun; Zhou, Yongjin; Cui, Shihan; Song, Jiawen; Ye, Peipei; Xiang, Wei; Huang, Xiaoyan; Chen, Yiping; Yan, Zhihan; Ye, Xinjian

2018-04-05

Brainstem encephalitis is the most common neurologic complication after enterovirus 71 infection. The involvement of brainstem, especially the dorsal medulla oblongata, can cause severe sequelae or death in children with enterovirus 71 infection. We aimed to determine the prevalence of dorsal medulla oblongata involvement in children with enterovirus 71-related brainstem encephalitis (EBE) by using conventional MRI and to evaluate the value of dorsal medulla oblongata involvement in outcome prediction. 46 children with EBE were enrolled in the study. All subjects underwent a 1.5 Tesla MR examination of the brain. The disease distribution and clinical data were collected. Dichotomized outcomes (good versus poor) at longer than 6 months were available for 28 patients. Logistic regression was used to determine whether the MRI-confirmed dorsal medulla oblongata involvement resulted in improved clinical outcome prediction when compared with other location involvement. Of the 46 patients, 35 had MRI evidence of dorsal medulla oblongata involvement, 32 had pons involvement, 10 had midbrain involvement, and 7 had dentate nuclei involvement. Patients with dorsal medulla oblongata involvement or multiple area involvement were significantly more often in the poor outcome group than in the good outcome group. Logistic regression analysis showed that dorsal medulla oblongata involvement was the most significant single variable in outcome prediction (predictive accuracy, 90.5%), followed by multiple area involvement, age, and initial glasgow coma scale score. Dorsal medulla oblongata involvement on conventional MRI correlated significantly with poor outcomes in EBE children, improved outcome prediction when compared with other clinical and disease location variables, and was most predictive when combined with multiple area involvement, glasgow coma scale score and age.

Psychosocial work characteristics and social support as predictors of SF-36 health functioning: the Whitehall II study.

PubMed

Stansfeld, S A; Bosma, H; Hemingway, H; Marmot, M G

1998-01-01

To assess whether work characteristics and social support are predictors of physical, psychological, and social functioning. Work characteristics (Karasek and Siegrist models) and social support at baseline were used to predict health functioning measured by the SF-36 General Health Survey 5 years later in a prospective cohort study of 10,308 British male and female civil servants. Effort-reward imbalance and negative aspects of close relationships predicted poor physical, psychological, and social functioning after adjustment for the potential confounding effects of age, employment grade, baseline ill health, and negative affectivity. These psychosocial characteristics seem to act in a similar way in the healthy and those with existing illness. Psychological demands at work in women, and low confiding/emotional support in men, also predicted poor functioning. Etiologically. these effects are not mediated through health-related behaviors. Negative aspects of work (high demands and effort-reward imbalance) and negative aspects of close relationships are independent powerful predictors of poor health functioning. They may have an etiological role, which is independent of baseline illness.

High serum uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer.

PubMed

Yue, Cai-Feng; Feng, Pin-Ning; Yao, Zhen-Rong; Yu, Xue-Gao; Lin, Wen-Bin; Qian, Yuan-Min; Guo, Yun-Miao; Li, Lai-Sheng; Liu, Min

2017-10-01

Uric acid is a product of purine metabolism. Recently, uric acid has gained much attraction in cancer. In this study, we aim to investigate the clinicopathological and prognostic significance of serum uric acid concentration in breast cancer patients. A total of 443 female patients with histopathologically diagnosed breast cancer were included. After a mean follow-up time of 56months, survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To further evaluate the prognostic significance of uric acid concentrations, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied. Of the clinicopathological parameters, uric acid concentration was associated with age, body mass index, ER status and PR status. Univariate analysis identified that patients with increased uric acid concentration had a significantly inferior overall survival (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.15-3.94, p=0.016). In multivariate analysis, we found that high uric acid concentration is an independent prognostic factor predicting death, but insufficient to predict local relapse or distant metastasis. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that high uric acid concentration is related to the poor overall survival (p=0.013). High uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer, and might serve as a potential marker for appropriate management of breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impaired Patient-Reported Outcomes Predict Poor School Functioning and Daytime Sleepiness: The PROMIS Pediatric Asthma Study.

PubMed

Jones, Conor M; DeWalt, Darren A; Huang, I-Chan

Poor asthma control in children is related to impaired patient-reported outcomes (PROs; eg, fatigue, depressive symptoms, anxiety), but less well studied is the effect of PROs on children's school performance and sleep outcomes. In this study we investigated whether the consistency status of PROs over time affected school functioning and daytime sleepiness in children with asthma. Of the 238 children with asthma enrolled in the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Pediatric Asthma Study, 169 children who provided survey data for all 4 time points were used in the analysis. The child's PROs, school functioning, and daytime sleepiness were measured 4 times within a 15-month period. PRO domains included asthma impact, pain interference, fatigue, depressive symptoms, anxiety, and mobility. Each child was classified as having poor/fair versus good PROs per meaningful cut points. The consistency status of each domain was classified as consistently poor/fair if poor/fair status was present for at least 3 time points; otherwise, the status was classified as consistently good. Seemingly unrelated regression was performed to test if consistently poor/fair PROs predicted impaired school functioning and daytime sleepiness at the fourth time point. Consistently poor/fair in all PRO domains was significantly associated with impaired school functioning and excessive daytime sleepiness (Ps < .01) after controlling for the influence of the child's age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Children with asthma with consistently poor/fair PROs are at risk of poor school functioning and daytime sleepiness. Developing child-friendly PRO assessment systems to track PROs can inform potential problems in the school setting. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

External validation of a prediction model for surgical site infection after thoracolumbar spine surgery in a Western European cohort.

PubMed

Janssen, Daniël M C; van Kuijk, Sander M J; d'Aumerie, Boudewijn B; Willems, Paul C

2018-05-16

A prediction model for surgical site infection (SSI) after spine surgery was developed in 2014 by Lee et al. This model was developed to compute an individual estimate of the probability of SSI after spine surgery based on the patient's comorbidity profile and invasiveness of surgery. Before any prediction model can be validly implemented in daily medical practice, it should be externally validated to assess how the prediction model performs in patients sampled independently from the derivation cohort. We included 898 consecutive patients who underwent instrumented thoracolumbar spine surgery. To quantify overall performance using Nagelkerke's R 2 statistic, the discriminative ability was quantified as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We computed the calibration slope of the calibration plot, to judge prediction accuracy. Sixty patients developed an SSI. The overall performance of the prediction model in our population was poor: Nagelkerke's R 2 was 0.01. The AUC was 0.61 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.68). The estimated slope of the calibration plot was 0.52. The previously published prediction model showed poor performance in our academic external validation cohort. To predict SSI after instrumented thoracolumbar spine surgery for the present population, a better fitting prediction model should be developed.

How well does a single question about health predict the financial health of Medicare managed care plans?

PubMed

Bierman, A S; Bubolz, T A; Fisher, E S; Wasson, J H

1999-01-01

Responses to simple questions that predict subsequent health care utilization are of interest to both capitated health plans and the payer. To determine how responses to a single question about general health status predict subsequent health care expenditures. Participants in the 1992 Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey were asked the following question: "In general, compared to other people your age, would you say your health is: excellent, very good, good, fair or poor?" To obtain each participant's total Medicare expenditures and number of hospitalizations in the ensuing year, we linked the responses to this question with data from the 1993 Medicare Continuous History Survey. Nationally representative sample of 8775 noninstitutionalized Medicare beneficiaries 65 years of age and older. Annual age- and sex-adjusted Medicare expenditures and hospitalization rates. Eighteen percent of the beneficiaries rated their health as excellent, 56% rated it as very good or good, 17% rated it as fair, and 7% rated it as poor. Medicare expenditures had a marked inverse relation to self-assessed health ratings. In the year after assessment, age- and sex-adjusted annual expenditures varied fivefold, from $8743 for beneficiaries rating their health as poor to $1656 for beneficiaries rating their health as excellent. Hospitalization rates followed the same pattern: Respondents who rated their health as poor had 675 hospitalizations per 1000 beneficiaries per year compared with 136 per 1000 for those rating their health as excellent. The response to a single question about general health status strongly predicts subsequent health care utilization. Self-reports of fair or poor health identify a group of high-risk patients who may benefit from targeted interventions. Because the current Medicare capitation formula does not account for health status, health plans can maximize profits by disproportionately enrolling beneficiaries who judge their health to be good. However, they are at a competitive disadvantage if they enroll beneficiaries who view themselves as sick.

Principals' Perceptions of Barriers to Dismissal of Poor-Performing Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dandoy, Jason R.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine which factors influence items that school principals consider "barriers" to dismissal of "incompetent" or "poor performing" teachers. This study determines if specific characteristics of schools, principals, or a combination of the two can predict the specific barriers cited…

Prevalence and Predictive Factors of Chronic Postsurgical Pain and Poor Global Recovery 1 Year After Outpatient Surgery.

PubMed

Hoofwijk, Daisy M N; Fiddelers, Audrey A A; Peters, Madelon L; Stessel, Björn; Kessels, Alfons G H; Joosten, Elbert A; Gramke, Hans-Fritz; Marcus, Marco A E

2015-12-01

To prospectively describe the prevalence and predictive factors of chronic postsurgical pain (CPSP) and poor global recovery in a large outpatient population at a university hospital, 1 year after outpatient surgery. A prospective longitudinal cohort study was performed. During 18 months, patients presenting for preoperative assessment were invited to participate. Outcome parameters were measured by using questionnaires at 3 timepoints: 1 week preoperatively, 4 days postoperatively, and 1 year postoperatively. A value of >3 on an 11-point numeric rating scale was considered to indicate moderate to severe pain. A score of ≤80% on the Global Surgical Recovery Index was defined as poor global recovery. A total of 908 patients were included. The prevalence of moderate to severe preoperative pain was 37.7%, acute postsurgical pain 26.7%, and CPSP 15.3%. Risk factors for the development of CPSP were surgical specialty, preoperative pain, preoperative analgesic use, acute postoperative pain, surgical fear, lack of optimism, and poor preoperative quality of life. The prevalence of poor global recovery was 22.3%. Risk factors for poor global recovery were recurrent surgery because of the same pathology, preoperative pain, preoperative analgesic use, surgical fear, lack of optimism, poor preoperative and acute postoperative quality of life, and follow-up surgery during the first postoperative year. Moderate to severe CPSP after outpatient surgery is common, and should not be underestimated. Patients at risk for developing CPSP can be identified during the preoperative phase.

The self-serving function of hypochondriacal complaints: physical symptoms as self-handicapping strategies.

PubMed

Smith, T W; Snyder, C R; Perkins, S C

1983-04-01

The present experiment tested the hypothesis that hypochondriacal individuals commonly use reports of physical illness and symptoms as a strategy to control attributions made about their performances in evaluative settings (i.e., self-handicapping strategies). Specifically, it was predicted that hypochondriacal individuals would report more recent physical illness and complaints and more current physical symptoms in an evaluative setting in which poor health could serve as an alternative explanation for poor performance than would either individuals in an evaluative setting in which poor health was precluded as an excuse or individuals in a nonevaluative setting. As predicted, results supported this self-protective pattern of complaints in a hypochondriacal sample but not in a nonhypochondriacal group. The self-protective role of hypochondriacal behavior is discussed in relation to other theory and research on the nature and treatment of hypochondriasis.

Gastric biomarkers: a global review.

PubMed

Baniak, Nick; Senger, Jenna-Lynn; Ahmed, Shahid; Kanthan, S C; Kanthan, Rani

2016-08-11

Gastric cancer is an aggressive disease with a poor 5-year survival and large global burden of disease. The disease is biologically and genetically heterogeneous with a poorly understood carcinogenesis at the molecular level. Despite the many prognostic, predictive, and therapeutic biomarkers investigated to date, gastric cancer continues to be detected at an advanced stage with resultant poor clinical outcomes. This is a global review of gastric biomarkers with an emphasis on HER2, E-cadherin, fibroblast growth factor receptor, mammalian target of rapamycin, and hepatocyte growth factor receptor as well as sections on microRNAs, long noncoding RNAs, matrix metalloproteinases, PD-L1, TP53, and microsatellite instability. A deeper understanding of the pathogenesis and biological features of gastric cancer, including the identification and characterization of diagnostic, prognostic, predictive, and therapeutic biomarkers, hopefully will provide improved clinical outcomes.

Sleep Quality Prediction From Wearable Data Using Deep Learning.

PubMed

Sathyanarayana, Aarti; Joty, Shafiq; Fernandez-Luque, Luis; Ofli, Ferda; Srivastava, Jaideep; Elmagarmid, Ahmed; Arora, Teresa; Taheri, Shahrad

2016-11-04

The importance of sleep is paramount to health. Insufficient sleep can reduce physical, emotional, and mental well-being and can lead to a multitude of health complications among people with chronic conditions. Physical activity and sleep are highly interrelated health behaviors. Our physical activity during the day (ie, awake time) influences our quality of sleep, and vice versa. The current popularity of wearables for tracking physical activity and sleep, including actigraphy devices, can foster the development of new advanced data analytics. This can help to develop new electronic health (eHealth) applications and provide more insights into sleep science. The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of predicting sleep quality (ie, poor or adequate sleep efficiency) given the physical activity wearable data during awake time. In this study, we focused on predicting good or poor sleep efficiency as an indicator of sleep quality. Actigraphy sensors are wearable medical devices used to study sleep and physical activity patterns. The dataset used in our experiments contained the complete actigraphy data from a subset of 92 adolescents over 1 full week. Physical activity data during awake time was used to create predictive models for sleep quality, in particular, poor or good sleep efficiency. The physical activity data from sleep time was used for the evaluation. We compared the predictive performance of traditional logistic regression with more advanced deep learning methods: multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), simple Elman-type recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM-RNN), and a time-batched version of LSTM-RNN (TB-LSTM). Deep learning models were able to predict the quality of sleep (ie, poor or good sleep efficiency) based on wearable data from awake periods. More specifically, the deep learning methods performed better than traditional logistic regression. “CNN had the highest specificity and sensitivity, and an overall area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.9449, which was 46% better as compared with traditional logistic regression (0.6463). Deep learning methods can predict the quality of sleep based on actigraphy data from awake periods. These predictive models can be an important tool for sleep research and to improve eHealth solutions for sleep. ©Aarti Sathyanarayana, Shafiq Joty, Luis Fernandez-Luque, Ferda Ofli, Jaideep Srivastava, Ahmed Elmagarmid, Teresa Arora, Shahrad Taheri. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 04.11.2016.

Sleep Quality Prediction From Wearable Data Using Deep Learning

PubMed Central

Sathyanarayana, Aarti; Joty, Shafiq; Ofli, Ferda; Srivastava, Jaideep; Elmagarmid, Ahmed; Arora, Teresa; Taheri, Shahrad

2016-01-01

Background The importance of sleep is paramount to health. Insufficient sleep can reduce physical, emotional, and mental well-being and can lead to a multitude of health complications among people with chronic conditions. Physical activity and sleep are highly interrelated health behaviors. Our physical activity during the day (ie, awake time) influences our quality of sleep, and vice versa. The current popularity of wearables for tracking physical activity and sleep, including actigraphy devices, can foster the development of new advanced data analytics. This can help to develop new electronic health (eHealth) applications and provide more insights into sleep science. Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the feasibility of predicting sleep quality (ie, poor or adequate sleep efficiency) given the physical activity wearable data during awake time. In this study, we focused on predicting good or poor sleep efficiency as an indicator of sleep quality. Methods Actigraphy sensors are wearable medical devices used to study sleep and physical activity patterns. The dataset used in our experiments contained the complete actigraphy data from a subset of 92 adolescents over 1 full week. Physical activity data during awake time was used to create predictive models for sleep quality, in particular, poor or good sleep efficiency. The physical activity data from sleep time was used for the evaluation. We compared the predictive performance of traditional logistic regression with more advanced deep learning methods: multilayer perceptron (MLP), convolutional neural network (CNN), simple Elman-type recurrent neural network (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM-RNN), and a time-batched version of LSTM-RNN (TB-LSTM). Results Deep learning models were able to predict the quality of sleep (ie, poor or good sleep efficiency) based on wearable data from awake periods. More specifically, the deep learning methods performed better than traditional linear regression. CNN had the highest specificity and sensitivity, and an overall area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.9449, which was 46% better as compared with traditional linear regression (0.6463). Conclusions Deep learning methods can predict the quality of sleep based on actigraphy data from awake periods. These predictive models can be an important tool for sleep research and to improve eHealth solutions for sleep. PMID:27815231

Improving promoter prediction for the NNPP2.2 algorithm: a case study using Escherichia coli DNA sequences.

PubMed

Burden, S; Lin, Y-X; Zhang, R

2005-03-01

Although a great deal of research has been undertaken in the area of promoter prediction, prediction techniques are still not fully developed. Many algorithms tend to exhibit poor specificity, generating many false positives, or poor sensitivity. The neural network prediction program NNPP2.2 is one such example. To improve the NNPP2.2 prediction technique, the distance between the transcription start site (TSS) associated with the promoter and the translation start site (TLS) of the subsequent gene coding region has been studied for Escherichia coli K12 bacteria. An empirical probability distribution that is consistent for all E.coli promoters has been established. This information is combined with the results from NNPP2.2 to create a new technique called TLS-NNPP, which improves the specificity of promoter prediction. The technique is shown to be effective using E.coli DNA sequences, however, it is applicable to any organism for which a set of promoters has been experimentally defined. The data used in this project and the prediction results for the tested sequences can be obtained from http://www.uow.edu.au/~yanxia/E_Coli_paper/SBurden_Results.xls alh98@uow.edu.au.

Conventional MRI features for predicting the clinical outcome of patients with invasive placenta

PubMed Central

Chen, Ting; Xu, Xiao-Quan; Shi, Hai-Bin; Yang, Zheng-Qiang; Zhou, Xin; Pan, Yi

2017-01-01

PURPOSE We aimed to evaluate whether morphologic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features could help to predict the maternal outcome after uterine artery embolization (UAE)-assisted cesarean section (CS) in patients with invasive placenta previa. METHODS We retrospectively reviewed the MRI data of 40 pregnant women who have undergone UAE-assisted cesarean section due to suspected high risk of massive hemorrhage caused by invasive placenta previa. Patients were divided into two groups based on the maternal outcome (good-outcome group: minor hemorrhage and uterus preserved; poor-outcome group: significant hemorrhage or emergency hysterectomy). Morphologic MRI features were compared between the two groups. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the most valuable variables, and predictive value of the identified risk factor was determined. RESULTS Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging (P < 0.001), placenta percreta (P = 0.011), and placental cervical protrusion sign (P = 0.002) were more frequently observed in patients with poor outcome. Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging was the only significant predictor of poor maternal outcome in multivariate analysis (P = 0.020; odds ratio, 14.79), with 81.3% sensitivity and 84.3% specificity. CONCLUSION Low signal intensity bands on T2-weighted imaging might be a predictor of poor maternal outcome after UAE-assisted cesarean section in patients with invasive placenta previa. PMID:28345524

Status epilepticus severity score (STESS): A useful tool to predict outcome of status epilepticus.

PubMed

Goyal, Manoj Kumar; Chakravarthi, Sudheer; Modi, Manish; Bhalla, Ashish; Lal, Vivek

2015-12-01

The treatment protocols for status epilepticus (SE) range from small doses of intravenous benzodiazepines to induction of coma. The pros and cons of more aggressive treatment regimen remain debatable. The importance of an index need not be overemphasized which can predict outcome of SE and guide the intensity of treatment. We tried to evaluate utility of one such index Status epilepticus severity score (STESS). 44 consecutive patients of SE were enrolled in the study. STESS results were compared with various outcome measures: (a) mortality, (b) final neurological outcome at discharge as defined by functional independence measure (FIM) (good outcome: FIM score 5-7; bad outcome: FIM score 1-4), (c) control of SE within 1h of start of treatment and (d) need for coma induction. A higher STESS score correlated significantly with poor neurological outcome at discharge (p=0.0001), need for coma induction (p=0.0001) and lack of response to treatment within 1h (p=0.001). A STESS of <3 was found to have a negative predictive value of 96.9% for mortality, 96.7% for poor neurological outcome at discharge and 96.7% for need of coma induction, while a STESS of <2 had negative predictive value of 100% for mortality, coma induction and poor neurological outcome at discharge. STESS can reliably predict the outcome of status epilepticus. Further studies on STESS based treatment approach may help in designing better therapeutic regimens for SE. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social Ecology of Child Soldiers: Child, Family, and Community Determinants of Mental Health, Psychosocial Wellbeing, and Reintegration in Nepal

PubMed Central

Kohrt, Brandon A.; Jordans, Mark J.D.; Tol, Wietse A.; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2013-01-01

This study employs social ecology to evaluate psychosocial wellbeing in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of function impairment and reintegration. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted fewer reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well-suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels, based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors. PMID:21088102

Medicaid eligibility policy in the 1980s: medical utilitarianism and the "deserving" poor.

PubMed

Tanenbaum, S J

1995-01-01

Between 1981 and the early 1990s, the Medicaid program grew substantially, in part because, for the first time in the program's history, eligibility for medical assistance was severed from eligibility for income-maintenance payments. Program participation had always been reserved for the "deserving poor," and these were originally defined as persons excluded from market relationships through no fault of their own. The Medicaid expansion of the 1980s, however, created a new constituency of poor, and not-so-poor, persons whose actual or predictable medical problems promised a calculable return on program funds.

Components of Young Children's Trait Understanding: Behavior-to-Trait Inferences and Trait-to-Behavior Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, David; Gelman, Susan A.; Wellman, Henry M.

2007-01-01

Trait attribution is central to people's naive theories of people and their actions. Previous developmental research indicates that young children are poor at predicting behaviors from past trait-relevant behaviors. We propose that the cognitive process of behavior-to-behavior predictions consists of two component processes: (1) behavior-to-trait…

Predictive Models of Nanotoxicity: Relationship of Physicochemical Properties to Particle Movement Through Biological Barriers

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding the linkage between the physicochemical (PC) properties of nanoparticles (NP) and their activation of biological systems is poorly understood, yet fundamental to predicting nanotoxicity, idenitifying mode of actions and developing appropriate and effective regul...

Magnetic Resonance Imaging-DRAGON score: 3-month outcome prediction after intravenous thrombolysis for anterior circulation stroke.

PubMed

Turc, Guillaume; Apoil, Marion; Naggara, Olivier; Calvet, David; Lamy, Catherine; Tataru, Alina M; Méder, Jean-François; Mas, Jean-Louis; Baron, Jean-Claude; Oppenheim, Catherine; Touzé, Emmanuel

2013-05-01

The DRAGON score, which includes clinical and computed tomographic scan parameters, showed a high specificity to predict 3-month outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke treated by intravenous tissue plasminogen activator. We adapted the score for patients undergoing MRI as the first-line diagnostic tool. We reviewed patients with consecutive anterior circulation ischemic stroke treated ≤ 4.5 hour by intravenous tissue plasminogen activator between 2003 and 2012 in our center, where MRI is systematically implemented as first-line diagnostic work-up. We derived the MRI-DRAGON score keeping all clinical parameters of computed tomography-DRAGON (age, initial National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and glucose level, prestroke handicap, onset to treatment time), and considering the following radiological variables: proximal middle cerebral artery occlusion on MR angiography instead of hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, and diffusion-weighted imaging Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (DWI ASPECTS) ≤ 5 instead of early infarct signs on computed tomography. Poor 3-month outcome was defined as modified Rankin scale >2. We calculated c-statistics as a measure of predictive ability and performed an internal cross-validation. Two hundred twenty-eight patients were included. Poor outcome was observed in 98 (43%) patients and was significantly associated with all parameters of the MRI-DRAGON score in multivariate analysis, except for onset to treatment time (nonsignificant trend). The c-statistic was 0.83 (95% confidence interval, 0.78-0.88) for poor outcome prediction. All patients with a MRI-DRAGON score ≤ 2 (n=22) had a good outcome, whereas all patients with a score ≥ 8 (n=11) had a poor outcome. The MRI-DRAGON score is a simple tool to predict 3-month outcome in acute stroke patients screened by MRI then treated by intravenous tissue plasminogen activator and may help for therapeutic decision.

Preoperative serum C-reactive protein levels and post-operative lymph node ratio are important predictors of survival after pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

PubMed

Sanjay, Pandanaboyana; de Figueiredo, Rodrigo S; Leaver, Heather; Ogston, Simon; Kulli, Christoph; Polignano, Francesco M; Tait, Iain S

2012-03-10

There is paucity of data on the prognostic value of pre-operative inflammatory response and post-operative lymph node ratio on patient survival after pancreatic-head resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. To evaluate the role of the preoperative inflammatory response and postoperative pathology criteria to identify predictive and/or prognostic variables for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. All patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma between 2002 and 2008 were reviewed retrospectively. The following impacts on patient survival were assessed: i) preoperative serum CRP levels, white cell count, neutrophil count, neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, lymphocyte count, platelet/lymphocyte ratio; and ii) post-operative pathology criteria including lymph node status and lymph node ratio. Fifty-one patients underwent potentially curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma during the study period. An elevated preoperative CRP level (greater than 3 mg/L) was found to be a significant adverse prognostic factor (P=0.015) predicting a poor survival, whereas white cell count (P=0.278), neutrophil count (P=0.850), neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (P=0.272), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (P=0.532) and lymphocyte count (P=0.721) were not significant prognosticators at univariate analysis. Presence of metastatic lymph nodes did not adversely affect survival (P=0.050), however a raised lymph node ratio predicted poor survival at univariate analysis (P<0.001). The preoperative serum CRP level retained significance at multivariate analysis (P=0.011), together with lymph node ratio (P<0.001) and tumour size (greater than 2 cm; P=0.008). A pre-operative elevated serum CRP level and raised post-operative lymph node ratio represent significant independent prognostic factors that predict poor prognosis in patients undergoing curative resection for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. There is potential for future neo-adjuvant and adjuvant treatment strategies in pancreatic cancer to be tailored based on preoperative and postoperative factors that predict a poor survival.

Children's Negative Emotionality Combined with Poor Self-Regulation Affects Allostatic Load in Adolescence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dich, Nadya; Doan, Stacey; Evans, Gary

2015-01-01

The present study examined the concurrent and prospective, longitudinal effects of childhood negative emotionality and self-regulation on allostatic load (AL), a physiological indicator of chronic stress. We hypothesized that negative emotionality in combination with poor self-regulation would predict elevated AL. Mothers reported on children's…

Social Skills, Competence, and Drug Refusal Efficacy as Predictors of Adolescent Alcohol Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheier, Lawrence M.; Botvin, Gilbert J.; Diaz, Tracy; Griffin, Kenneth W.

1999-01-01

Examines the extent to which assertiveness and related social skills, personal competence, and refusal efficacy predict alcohol involvement in adolescents. Males were at higher risk for poor refusal skills and reported higher alcohol involvement. Youth characterized by poor social skill development reported lower refusal efficacy, lower grades,…

Proteomic analysis of human follicular fluid in poor ovarian responders during in vitro fertilization.

PubMed

Oh, Jae Won; Kim, Seul Ki; Cho, Kyung-Cho; Kim, Min-Sik; Suh, Chang Suk; Lee, Jung Ryeol; Kim, Kwang Pyo

2017-03-01

Poor ovarian response (POR) in controlled ovarian stimulation is often observed during in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer cycles and it is a major problem. A POR has been found to be related to several factors, including advanced age, high body mass index, and history of ovarian or pelvic surgery. However, it is difficult to predict POR, as there are no specific biomarkers known. In this study, we used quantitative proteomic analyses to investigate potential biomarkers that can predict poor response during in vitro fertilization based on follicular fluid samples. A total of 1079 proteins were identified using a high-resolution orbitrap mass spectrometer coupled online to a nanoflow-LC system. It is notable that 65 upregulated and 66 downregulated proteins were found to be functionally enriched in poor responders. We also validated these differentially expressed proteins using a triple-quadrupole mass spectrometer for quantification of targeted proteins. Of the differentially expressed proteins, three proteins (pregnancy zone protein, renin, and sushi repeat-containing protein SRPX) were regarded as statistically significant (p < 0.05). © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Improved Outcome Prediction Using CT Angiography in Addition to Standard Ischemic Stroke Assessment: Results from the STOPStroke Study

PubMed Central

González, R. Gilberto; Lev, Michael H.; Goldmacher, Gregory V.; Smith, Wade S.; Payabvash, Seyedmehdi; Harris, Gordon J.; Halpern, Elkan F.; Koroshetz, Walter J.; Camargo, Erica C. S.; Dillon, William P.; Furie, Karen L.

2012-01-01

Purpose To improve ischemic stroke outcome prediction using imaging information from a prospective cohort who received admission CT angiography (CTA). Methods In a prospectively designed study, 649 stroke patients diagnosed with acute ischemic stroke had admission NIH stroke scale scores, noncontrast CT (NCCT), CTA, and 6-month outcome assessed using the modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores. Poor outcome was defined as mRS>2. Strokes were classified as “major” by the (1) Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS+) if NCCT ASPECTS was≤7; (2) Boston Acute Stroke Imaging Scale (BASIS+) if they were ASPECTS+ or CTA showed occlusion of the distal internal carotid, proximal middle cerebral, or basilar arteries; and (3) NIHSS for scores>10. Results Of 649 patients, 253 (39.0%) had poor outcomes. NIHSS, BASIS, and age, but not ASPECTS, were independent predictors of outcome. BASIS and NIHSS had similar sensitivities, both superior to ASPECTS (p<0.0001). Combining NIHSS with BASIS was highly predictive: 77.6% (114/147) classified as NIHSS>10/BASIS+ had poor outcomes, versus 21.5% (77/358) with NIHSS≤10/BASIS− (p<0.0001), regardless of treatment. The odds ratios for poor outcome is 12.6 (95% CI: 7.9 to 20.0) in patients who are NIHSS>10/BASIS+ compared to patients who are NIHSS≤10/BASIS−; the odds ratio is 5.4 (95% CI: 3.5 to 8.5) when compared to patients who are only NIHSS>10 or BASIS+. Conclusions BASIS and NIHSS are independent outcome predictors. Their combination is stronger than either instrument alone in predicting outcomes. The findings suggest that CTA is a significant clinical tool in routine acute stroke assessment. PMID:22276182

Hyperfibrinogenemia is a poor prognostic factor in diffuse large B cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Niu, Jun-Ying; Tian, Tian; Zhu, Hua-Yuan; Liang, Jin-Hua; Wu, Wei; Cao, Lei; Lu, Rui-Nan; Wang, Li; Li, Jian-Yong; Xu, Wei

2018-06-02

Diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the most common subtype of non-Hodgkin lymphomas worldwide. Previous studies indicated that hyperfibrinogenemia was a poor predictor in various tumors. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the prognostic effect of hyperfibrinogenemia in DLBCL. Data of 228 patients, who were diagnosed with DLBCL in our hospital between May 2009 and February 2016, were analyzed retrospectively. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression were performed to find prognostic factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve and the areas under the curve were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of predictors. Comparison of characters between groups indicated that patients with high National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) score (4-8) and advanced stage (III-IV) were more likely to suffer from hyperfibrinogenemia. The Kaplan-Meier method revealed that patients with hyperfibrinogenemia showed inferior PFS (P < 0.001) and OS (P < 0.001) than those without hyperfibrinogenemia. Multivariate analysis showed that hyperfibrinogenemia was an independent prognostic factor associated with poor outcomes (HR = 1.90, 95% CI: 1.15-3.16 for PFS, P = 0.013; HR = 2.65, 95% CI: 1.46-4.79 for OS, P = 0.001). We combined hyperfibrinogenemia and NCCN-IPI to build a new prognostic index (NPI). The NPI was demonstrated to have a superior predictive effect on prognosis (P = 0.0194 for PFS, P = 0.0034 for OS). Hyperfibrinogenemia was demonstrated to be able to predict poor outcome in DLBCL, especially for patients with advanced stage and high NCCN-IPI score. Adding hyperfibrinogenemia to NCCN-IPI could significantly improve the predictive effect of NCCN-IPI.

Urinary Squamous Epithelial Cells Do Not Accurately Predict Urine Culture Contamination, but May Predict Urinalysis Performance in Predicting Bacteriuria.

PubMed

Mohr, Nicholas M; Harland, Karisa K; Crabb, Victoria; Mutnick, Rachel; Baumgartner, David; Spinosi, Stephanie; Haarstad, Michael; Ahmed, Azeemuddin; Schweizer, Marin; Faine, Brett

2016-03-01

The presence of squamous epithelial cells (SECs) has been advocated to identify urinary contamination despite a paucity of evidence supporting this practice. We sought to determine the value of using quantitative SECs as a predictor of urinalysis contamination. Retrospective cross-sectional study of adults (≥18 years old) presenting to a tertiary academic medical center who had urinalysis with microscopy and urine culture performed. Patients with missing or implausible demographic data were excluded (2.5% of total sample). The primary analysis aimed to determine an SEC threshold that predicted urine culture contamination using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis. The a priori secondary analysis explored how demographic variables (age, sex, body mass index) may modify the SEC test performance and whether SECs impacted traditional urinalysis indicators of bacteriuria. A total of 19,328 records were included. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that SEC count was a poor predictor of urine culture contamination (area under the ROC curve = 0.680, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.671 to 0.689). In secondary analysis, the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of predicting bacteriuria via urinalysis among noncontaminated specimens was 4.98 (95% CI = 4.59 to 5.40) in the absence of SECs, but the LR+ fell to 2.35 (95% CI = 2.17 to 2.54) for samples with more than 8 SECs/low-powered field (lpf). In an independent validation cohort, urinalysis samples with fewer than 8 SECs/lpf predicted bacteriuria better (sensitivity = 75%, specificity = 84%) than samples with more than 8 SECs/lpf (sensitivity = 86%, specificity = 70%; diagnostic odds ratio = 17.5 [14.9 to 20.7] vs. 8.7 [7.3 to 10.5]). Squamous epithelial cells are a poor predictor of urine culture contamination, but may predict poor predictive performance of traditional urinalysis measures. © 2016 by the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine.

A comparison of the diagnostic power of the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness scale and the Glasgow coma scale in the discharge outcome prediction of patients with traumatic brain injury admitted to the intensive care unit

PubMed Central

Gorji, Mohammad Ali Heidari; Hoseini, Seyed Hosein; Gholipur, Afshin; Mohammadpur, Reza Ali

2014-01-01

Background and Aim: This study aimed to determine whether the Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) score is an accurate predictorof discharge outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients and to compare its performanceto Glasgow coma scale (GCS). Materials and Methods: Thisis diagnostic study conducted prospectively on 53 TBI patients admitted to ICU of education hospitals of Medical Science University of Mazandaran during February 2013 to June 2013. Data collection was done with a checklist including biographic, clinical information and outcome. The FOUR score and GCS were determined by the researcher in the first 24 hours. Outcomes considered as in-hospital mortality and poor neurologic outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) 1-3) in discharge time from the hospital. Results: In terms of predictive power for in-hospital mortality, the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0/92 (95% CI. 0/81-0/97) for FOUR score and 0/96 (95% CI. 0/87-0/99) for GCS. In terms of predictive power of poor neurologic outcome, the area under the ROC curve was 0/95 (95% CI. 0/86-0/99) for FOUR score and 0/90 (95% CI.0/79-0/96) for GCS as evidenced by GOS 1-3. The cut-off of 6 showed sensitivity and specificity of total four score predicting poor outcome at 0/86 and 0/87 while the cut-off of 4 showed the value of in hospital mortality at 0/90 and 0/90. The total GCS score showed sensitivity and specificity 0/100 and 0/61 at cut-off 7 in predicting poor outcome while in predicting mortality at cut-off of 4 this range was 0/100 and 0/92. Conclusion: The FOUR score is an accurate predictor of discharge outcome in TBI patients. Thus, researchers recommend for therapeutic Schematizationto use in neurosurgical patients at admission day. PMID:24843331

Blood urea nitrogen to serum creatinine ratio is an accurate predictor of outcome in diarrhea-associated hemolytic uremic syndrome, a preliminary study.

PubMed

Keenswijk, Werner; Vanmassenhove, Jill; Raes, Ann; Dhont, Evelyn; Vande Walle, Johan

2017-03-01

Diarrhea-associated hemolytic uremic syndrome (D+HUS) is a common thrombotic microangiopathy during childhood and early identification of parameters predicting poor outcome could enable timely intervention. This study aims to establish the accuracy of BUN-to-serum creatinine ratio at admission, in addition to other parameters in predicting the clinical course and outcome. Records were searched for children between 1 January 2008 and 1 January 2015 admitted with D+HUS. A complicated course was defined as developing one or more of the following: neurological dysfunction, pancreatitis, cardiac or pulmonary involvement, hemodynamic instability, and hematologic complications while poor outcome was defined by death or development of chronic kidney disease. Thirty-four children were included from which 11 with a complicated disease course/poor outcome. Risk of a complicated course/poor outcome was strongly associated with oliguria (p = 0.000006) and hypertension (p = 0.00003) at presentation. In addition, higher serum creatinine (p = 0.000006) and sLDH (p = 0.02) with lower BUN-to-serum creatinine ratio (p = 0.000007) were significantly associated with development of complications. A BUN-to-sCreatinine ratio ≤40 at admission was a sensitive and highly specific predictor of a complicated disease course/poor outcome. A BUN-to-serum Creatinine ratio can accurately identify children with D+HUS at risk for a complicated course and poor outcome. What is Known: • Oliguria is a predictor of poor long-term outcome in D+HUS What is New: • BUN-to-serum Creatinine ratio at admission is an entirely novel and accurate predictor of poor outcome and complicated clinical outcome in D+HUS • Early detection of the high risk group in D+HUS enabling early treatment and adequate monitoring.

Preschool Executive Functioning Abilities Predict Early Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Caron A. C.; Pritchard, Verena E.; Woodward, Lianne J.

2010-01-01

Impairments in executive function have been documented in school-age children with mathematical learning difficulties. However, the utility and specificity of preschool executive function abilities in predicting later mathematical achievement are poorly understood. This study examined linkages between children's developing executive function…

A prospective study of personality as a predictor of quality of life after pelvic pouch surgery.

PubMed

Weinryb, R M; Gustavsson, J P; Liljeqvist, L; Poppen, B; Rössel, R J

1997-02-01

Surgeons often "know" preoperatively which patients will achieve good postoperative quality of life (QOL). This intuition is probably based on impressions of the patient's personality. The present aim was to examine whether preoperative personality traits predict postoperative QOL. In 53 patients undergoing pelvic pouch surgery for ulcerative colitis the relationship between preoperative personality traits, and surgical functional outcome and QOL was examined at a median of 17 months postoperatively. Personality assessment instruments (KAPP and KSP), and specific measures of alexithymia were used. Postoperatively, the Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale (PAIS), and surgical functional outcome scales were used. Using multiple correlation/regression, analysis lack of alexithymia, poor frustration tolerance, anxiety proneness, and poor socialization (resentment over childhood and present life situation) were found to predict poor postoperative QOL. The findings suggest personality traits, in addition to surgical functional outcome, to be important for the patient's postoperative QOL.

"Wealth Makes Many Friends": Children Expect More Giving From Resource-Rich Than Resource-Poor Individuals.

PubMed

Ahl, Richard E; Dunham, Yarrow

2017-08-21

Young children show social preferences for resource-rich individuals, although few studies have explored the causes underlying such preferences. We evaluate the viability of one candidate cause: Children believe that resource wealth relates to behavior, such that they expect the resource rich to be more likely to materially benefit others (including themselves) than the resource poor. In Studies 1 and 2 (ages 4-10), American children from predominantly middle-income families (n = 94) and Indian children from lower income families (n = 30) predicted that the resource rich would be likelier to share with others than the resource poor. In Study 3, American children (n = 66) made similar predictions in an incentivized decision-making task. The possibility that children's expectations regarding giving contribute to prowealth preferences is discussed. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

A Search for Nitrogen-enhanced Metal-poor Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Jennifer A.; Herwig, Falk; Beers, Timothy C.; Christlieb, Norbert

2007-04-01

Theoretical models of very metal-poor intermediate-mass asymptotic giant branch (AGB) stars predict a large overabundance of primary nitrogen. The very metal-poor, carbon-enhanced, s-process-rich stars, which are thought to be the polluted companions of now extinct AGB stars, provide direct tests of the predictions of these models. Recent studies of the carbon and nitrogen abundances in metal-poor stars have focused on the most carbon-rich stars, leading to a potential selection bias against stars that have been polluted by AGB stars that produced large amounts of nitrogen and hence have small [C/N] ratios. We call these stars nitrogen-enhanced metal-poor (NEMP) stars and define them as having [N/Fe]>+0.5 and [C/N]<-0.5. In this paper we report on the [C/N] abundances of a sample of 21 carbon-enhanced stars, all but three of which have [C/Fe]<+2.0. If NEMP stars were made as easily as carbon-enhanced metal-poor (CEMP) stars, then we expected to find between two and seven NEMP stars. Instead, we found no NEMP stars in our sample. Therefore, this observational bias is not an important contributor to the apparent dearth of N-rich stars. Our [C/N] values are in the same range as values reported previously in the literature (-0.5 to +2.0), and all stars are in disagreement with the predicted [C/N] ratios for both low- and high-mass AGB stars. We suggest that the decrease in [C/N] from the low-mass AGB models is due to enhanced extramixing, while the lack of NEMP stars may be caused by unfavorable mass ratios in binaries or the difficulty of mass transfer in binary systems with large mass ratios. Based on observations obtained at Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory and Kitt Peak National Observatory, a division of the National Optical Astronomy Observatory, which is operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation.

Predictors of Poor School Readiness in Children Without Developmental Delay at Age 2

PubMed Central

Dudovitz, Rebecca N.; Coker, Tumaini R.; Barnert, Elizabeth S.; Biely, Christopher; Li, Ning; Szilagyi, Peter G.; Larson, Kandyce; Halfon, Neal; Zimmerman, Frederick J.; Chung, Paul J.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Current recommendations emphasize developmental screening and surveillance to identify developmental delays (DDs) for referral to early intervention (EI) services. Many young children without DDs, however, are at high risk for poor developmental and behavioral outcomes by school entry but are ineligible for EI. We developed models for 2-year-olds without DD that predict, at kindergarten entry, poor academic performance and high problem behaviors. METHODS: Data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Birth Cohort (ECLS-B), were used for this study. The analytic sample excluded children likely eligible for EI because of DDs or very low birth weight. Dependent variables included low academic scores and high problem behaviors at the kindergarten wave. Regression models were developed by using candidate predictors feasibly obtainable during typical 2-year well-child visits. Models were cross-validated internally on randomly selected subsamples. RESULTS: Approximately 24% of all 2-year-old children were ineligible for EI at 2 years of age but still had poor academic or behavioral outcomes at school entry. Prediction models each contain 9 variables, almost entirely parental, social, or economic. Four variables were associated with both academic and behavioral risk: parental education below bachelor’s degree, little/no shared reading at home, food insecurity, and fair/poor parental health. Areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve were 0.76 for academic risk and 0.71 for behavioral risk. Adding the mental scale score from the Bayley Short Form–Research Edition did not improve areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for either model. CONCLUSIONS: Among children ineligible for EI services, a small set of clinically available variables at age 2 years predicted academic and behavioral outcomes at school entry. PMID:27432845

The long-term effects of maternal depression: early childhood physical health as a pathway to offspring depression.

PubMed

Raposa, Elizabeth; Hammen, Constance; Brennan, Patricia; Najman, Jake

2014-01-01

Cross-sectional and retrospective studies have highlighted the long-term negative effects of maternal depression on offspring physical, social, and emotional development, but longitudinal research is needed to clarify the pathways by which maternal depression during pregnancy and early childhood affects offspring outcomes. The current study tested one developmental pathway by which maternal depression during pregnancy might negatively impact offspring mental health in young adulthood, via poor physical health in early childhood. The sample consisted of 815 Australian youth and their mothers who were followed for 20 years. Mothers reported on their own depressive symptoms during pregnancy and offspring early childhood. Youth completed interviews about health-related stress and social functioning at age 20 years, and completed a questionnaire about their own depressive symptoms 2 to 5 years later. Path analysis indicated that prenatal maternal depressive symptoms predicted worse physical health during early childhood for offspring, and this effect was partially explained by ongoing maternal depression in early childhood. Offspring poor physical health during childhood predicted increased health-related stress and poor social functioning at age 20. Finally, increased health-related stress and poor social functioning predicted increased levels of depressive symptoms later in young adulthood. Maternal depression had a significant total indirect effect on youth depression via early childhood health and its psychosocial consequences. Poor physical health in early childhood and its effects on young adults' social functioning and levels of health related stress is one important pathway by which maternal depression has long-term consequences for offspring mental health. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is the AIMS65 score useful in predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding?

PubMed

Jung, Sung Hoon; Oh, Jung Hwan; Lee, Hye Yeon; Jeong, Joon Won; Go, Se Eun; You, Chan Ran; Jeon, Eun Jung; Choi, Sang Wook

2014-02-21

To evaluate the applicability of AIMS65 scores in predicting outcomes of peptic ulcer bleeding. This was a retrospective study in a single center between January 2006 and December 2011. We enrolled 522 patients with upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage who visited the emergency room. High-risk patients were regarded as those who had re-bleeding within 30 d from the first endoscopy as well as those who died within 30 d of visiting the Emergency room. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed, and the AIMS65 score was used to retrospectively predict the high-risk patients. A total of 149 patients with peptic ulcer bleeding were analysed. The poor outcome group comprised 28 patients [male: 23 (82.1%) vs female: 5 (10.7%)] while the good outcome group included 121 patients [male: 93 (76.9%) vs female: 28 (23.1%)]. The mean age in each group was not significantly different. The mean serum albumin levels in the poor outcome group were slightly lower than those in the good outcome group (P = 0.072). For the prediction of poor outcome, the AIMS65 score had a sensitivity of 35.5% (95%CI: 27.0-44.8) and a specificity of 82.1% (95%CI: 63.1-93.9) at a score of 0. The AIMS65 score was insufficient for predicting outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding (area under curve = 0.571; 95%CI: 0.49-0.65). The AIMS65 score may therefore not be suitable for predicting clinical outcomes in peptic ulcer bleeding. Low albumin levels may be a risk factor associated with high mortality in peptic ulcer bleeding.

External validation and clinical utility of a prediction model for 6-month mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis for end-stage kidney disease.

PubMed

Forzley, Brian; Er, Lee; Chiu, Helen Hl; Djurdjev, Ognjenka; Martinusen, Dan; Carson, Rachel C; Hargrove, Gaylene; Levin, Adeera; Karim, Mohamud

2018-02-01

End-stage kidney disease is associated with poor prognosis. Health care professionals must be prepared to address end-of-life issues and identify those at high risk for dying. A 6-month mortality prediction model for patients on dialysis derived in the United States is used but has not been externally validated. We aimed to assess the external validity and clinical utility in an independent cohort in Canada. We examined the performance of the published 6-month mortality prediction model, using discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analyses. Data were derived from a cohort of 374 prevalent dialysis patients in two regions of British Columbia, Canada, which included serum albumin, age, peripheral vascular disease, dementia, and answers to the "the surprise question" ("Would I be surprised if this patient died within the next year?"). The observed mortality in the validation cohort was 11.5% at 6 months. The prediction model had reasonable discrimination (c-stat = 0.70) but poor calibration (calibration-in-the-large = -0.53 (95% confidence interval: -0.88, -0.18); calibration slope = 0.57 (95% confidence interval: 0.31, 0.83)) in our data. Decision curve analysis showed the model only has added value in guiding clinical decision in a small range of threshold probabilities: 8%-20%. Despite reasonable discrimination, the prediction model has poor calibration in this external study cohort; thus, it may have limited clinical utility in settings outside of where it was derived. Decision curve analysis clarifies limitations in clinical utility not apparent by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. This study highlights the importance of external validation of prediction models prior to routine use in clinical practice.

Retrospective study of long-term outcome after brain arteriovenous malformation rupture: the RAP score.

PubMed

Shotar, Eimad; Debarre, Matthieu; Sourour, Nader-Antoine; Di Maria, Federico; Gabrieli, Joseph; Nouet, Aurélien; Chiras, Jacques; Degos, Vincent; Clarençon, Frédéric

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE The authors aimed to design a score for stratifying patients with brain arteriovenous malformation (BAVM) rupture, based on the likelihood of a poor long-term neurological outcome. METHODS The records of consecutive patients with BAVM hemorrhagic events who had been admitted over a period of 11 years were retrospectively reviewed. Independent predictors of a poor long-term outcome (modified Rankin Scale score ≥ 3) beyond 1 year after admission were identified. A risk stratification scale was developed and compared with the intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) score to predict poor outcome and inpatient mortality. RESULTS One hundred thirty-five patients with 139 independent hemorrhagic events related to BAVM rupture were included in this analysis. Multivariate logistic regression followed by stepwise analysis showed that consciousness level according to the Glasgow Coma Scale (OR 6.5, 95% CI 3.1-13.7, p < 10 -3 ), hematoma volume (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.2-2.8, p = 0.005), and intraventricular hemorrhage (OR 7.5, 95% CI 2.66-21, p < 10 -3 ) were independently associated with a poor outcome. A 12-point scale for ruptured BAVM prognostication was constructed combining these 3 factors. The score obtained using this new scale, the ruptured AVM prognostic (RAP) score, was a stronger predictor of a poor long-term outcome (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] 0.87, 95% CI 0.8-0.92, p = 0.009) and inpatient mortality (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.95, p = 0.006) than the ICH score. For a RAP score ≥ 6, sensitivity and specificity for predicting poor outcome were 76.8% (95% CI 63.6-87) and 90.8% (95% CI 81.9-96.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The authors propose a new admission score, the RAP score, dedicated to stratifying the risk of poor long-term outcome after BAVM rupture. This easy-to-use scoring system may help to improve communication between health care providers and consistency in clinical research. Only external prospective cohorts and population-based studies will ensure full validation of the RAP scores' capacity to predict outcome after BAVM rupture.

Elucidating Poor Decision-Making in a Rat Gambling Task

PubMed Central

Seriès, Peggy; Marchand, Alain R.; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2013-01-01

Although poor decision-making is a hallmark of psychiatric conditions such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pathological gambling or substance abuse, a fraction of healthy individuals exhibit similar poor decision-making performances in everyday life and specific laboratory tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task. These particular individuals may provide information on risk factors or common endophenotypes of these mental disorders. In a rodent version of the Iowa gambling task – the Rat Gambling Task (RGT), we identified a population of poor decision makers, and assessed how these rats scored for several behavioral traits relevant to executive disorders: risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, and several aspects of impulsivity. First, we found that poor decision-making could not be well predicted by single behavioral and cognitive characteristics when considered separately. By contrast, a combination of independent traits in the same individual, namely risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, as well as motor impulsivity, was highly predictive of poor decision-making. Second, using a reinforcement-learning model of the RGT, we confirmed that only the combination of extreme scores on these traits could induce maladaptive decision-making. Third, the model suggested that a combination of these behavioral traits results in an inaccurate representation of rewards and penalties and inefficient learning of the environment. Poor decision-making appears as a consequence of the over-valuation of high-reward-high-risk options in the task. Such a specific psychological profile could greatly impair clinically healthy individuals in decision-making tasks and may predispose to mental disorders with similar symptoms. PMID:24339988

Elucidating poor decision-making in a rat gambling task.

PubMed

Rivalan, Marion; Valton, Vincent; Seriès, Peggy; Marchand, Alain R; Dellu-Hagedorn, Françoise

2013-01-01

Although poor decision-making is a hallmark of psychiatric conditions such as attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder, pathological gambling or substance abuse, a fraction of healthy individuals exhibit similar poor decision-making performances in everyday life and specific laboratory tasks such as the Iowa Gambling Task. These particular individuals may provide information on risk factors or common endophenotypes of these mental disorders. In a rodent version of the Iowa gambling task--the Rat Gambling Task (RGT), we identified a population of poor decision makers, and assessed how these rats scored for several behavioral traits relevant to executive disorders: risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, and several aspects of impulsivity. First, we found that poor decision-making could not be well predicted by single behavioral and cognitive characteristics when considered separately. By contrast, a combination of independent traits in the same individual, namely risk taking, reward seeking, behavioral inflexibility, as well as motor impulsivity, was highly predictive of poor decision-making. Second, using a reinforcement-learning model of the RGT, we confirmed that only the combination of extreme scores on these traits could induce maladaptive decision-making. Third, the model suggested that a combination of these behavioral traits results in an inaccurate representation of rewards and penalties and inefficient learning of the environment. Poor decision-making appears as a consequence of the over-valuation of high-reward-high-risk options in the task. Such a specific psychological profile could greatly impair clinically healthy individuals in decision-making tasks and may predispose to mental disorders with similar symptoms.

Watershed Models for Predicting Nitrogen Loads from Artificially Drained Lands

Treesearch

R. Wayne Skaggs; George M. Chescheir; Glenn Fernandez; Devendra M. Amatya

2003-01-01

Non-point sources of pollutants originate at the field scale but water quality problems usually occur at the watershed or basin scale. This paper describes a series of models developed for poorly drained watersheds. The models use DRAINMOD to predict hydrology at the field scale and a range of methods to predict channel hydraulics and nitrogen transport. In-stream...

Using Growth Rate of Reading Fluency to Predict Performance on Statewide Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Rachelle Whittaker

2011-01-01

Federal legislation has prescribed the increased use of statewide achievement tests as the culmination of a student's knowledge and ability at the end of a grade level; however, schools need to be able to predict those who are at-risk of performing poorly on these high-stakes tests. Three studies served to identify a means of predicting statewide…

Pre-treatment neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictive marker for pathological response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in pancreatic cancer

PubMed Central

HASEGAWA, SHINICHIRO; EGUCHI, HIDETOSHI; TOMOKUNI, AKIRA; TOMIMARU, YOSHITO; ASAOKA, TADAFUMI; WADA, HIROSHI; HAMA, NAOKI; KAWAMOTO, KOICHI; KOBAYASHI, SHOGO; MARUBASHI, SHIGERU; KONNNO, MASAMITSU; ISHII, HIDESHI; MORI, MASAKI; DOKI, YUICHIRO; NAGANO, HIROAKI

2016-01-01

An elevated neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been reported to be associated with the pathological response to neoadjuvant therapies in numerous types of cancer. The aim of the current study was to clarify the association between pre-treatment NLR and the pathological response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in pancreatic cancer patients. This retrospective analysis included data from 56 consecutive patients whose tumors were completely surgically resected. All patients received preoperative therapy, consisting of gemcitabine-based chemotherapy (alone or in combination with S-1) combined with 40 or 50.4 Gy irradiation, prior to surgery. Predictive factors, including NLR, platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), modified Glasgow prognostic score and prognostic nutrition index, were measured prior to treatment. A comparison was made between those who responded well pathologically (good response group, Evans classification IIb/III) and those with a poor response (Evans I/IIa). NLR was determined to be significantly higher in the poor response group. Multivariate analysis identified an elevated NLR as an independent risk factor for the poor pathological response [odds ratio (OR), 5.35; P=0.0257]. The pre-treatment NLR (≥2.2/<2.2) was found to be a statistically significant predictive indicator of pathological response (P=0.00699). The results demonstrate that pre-treatment NLR may be a useful predictive marker for the pathological response to preoperative therapy in pancreatic cancer patients. PMID:26893780

Subtypes of developmental dyslexia: testing the predictions of the dual-route and connectionist frameworks.

PubMed

Peterson, Robin L; Pennington, Bruce F; Olson, Richard K

2013-01-01

We investigated the phonological and surface subtypes of developmental dyslexia in light of competing predictions made by two computational models of single word reading, the Dual-Route Cascaded Model (DRC; Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001) and Harm and Seidenberg's connectionist model (HS model; Harm & Seidenberg, 1999). The regression-outlier procedure was applied to a large sample to identify children with disproportionately poor phonological coding skills (phonological dyslexia) or disproportionately poor orthographic coding skills (surface dyslexia). Consistent with the predictions of the HS model, children with "pure" phonological dyslexia, who did not have orthographic deficits, had milder phonological impairments than children with "relative" phonological dyslexia, who did have secondary orthographic deficits. In addition, pure cases of dyslexia were more common among older children. Consistent with the predictions of the DRC model, surface dyslexia was not well conceptualized as a reading delay; both phonological and surface dyslexia were associated with patterns of developmental deviance. In addition, some results were problematic for both models. We identified a small number of individuals with severe phonological dyslexia, relatively intact orthographic coding skills, and very poor real word reading. Further, a subset of controls could read normally despite impaired orthographic coding. The findings are discussed in terms of improvements to both models that might help better account for all cases of developmental dyslexia. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Subtypes of developmental dyslexia: Testing the predictions of the dual-route and connectionist frameworks

PubMed Central

Peterson, Robin L.; Pennington, Bruce F.; Olson, Richard K.

2012-01-01

We investigated the phonological and surface subtypes of developmental dyslexia in light of competing predictions made by two computational models of single word reading, the dual-route cascaded model (DRC; Coltheart, Rastle, Perry, Langdon, & Ziegler, 2001) and Harm and Seidenberg’s connectionist model (HS model; Harm & Seidenberg, 1999). The regression-outlier procedure was applied to a large sample to identify children with disproportionately poor phonological coding skills (phonological dyslexia) or disproportionately poor orthographic coding skills (surface dyslexia). Consistent with the predictions of the HS model, children with “pure” phonological dyslexia, who did not have orthographic deficits, had milder phonological impairments than children with “relative” phonological dyslexia, who did have secondary orthographic deficits. In addition, pure cases of dyslexia were more common among older children. Consistent with the predictions of the DRC model, surface dyslexia was not well conceptualized as a reading delay; both phonological and surface dyslexia were associated with patterns of developmental deviance. In addition, some results were problematic for both models. We identified a small number of individuals with severe phonological dyslexia, relatively intact orthographic coding skills, and very poor real word reading. Further, a subset of controls could read normally despite impaired orthographic coding. The findings are discussed in terms of improvements to both models that might help better account for all cases of developmental dyslexia. PMID:23010562

Functional outcomes of child and adolescent ODD symptoms in young adult men

PubMed Central

Burke, Jeffrey D.; Rowe, Richard; Boylan, Khrista

2013-01-01

Background ODD is considered to be a disorder of childhood, yet evidence suggests that prevalence rates of the disorder are stable into late adolescence and trajectories of symptoms persist into young adulthood. Functional outcomes associated with ODD through childhood and adolescence include conflict within families, poor peer relationships, peer rejection and academic difficulties. Little examination of functional outcomes in adulthood associated with ODD has been undertaken. Method Data for the present analyses come from a clinic referred sample of 177 boys aged 7 to 12 followed up annually to age 18 and again at age 24. Annual parental report of psychopathology through adolescence was used to predict self-reported functional outcomes at 24. Results Controlling for parent reported symptoms of ADHD, CD, depression and anxiety, ODD symptoms from childhood through adolescence predicted poorer age 24 functioning with peers, poorer romantic relationships, a poorer paternal relationship, and having nobody who would provide a recommendation for a job. CD symptoms predicted workplace problems, poor maternal relationship, lower academic attainment and violent injuries. Only parent reported ODD symptoms and child reported CD symptoms predicted a composite of poor adult outcomes. Conclusion ODD is a disorder that significantly interferes with functioning, particularly in social or interpersonal relationships. The persistence of impairment associated with ODD into young adulthood calls for a reconsideration of ODD as a disorder limited to childhood. PMID:24117754

Prognostic value of blood interleukin-6 in the prediction of functional outcome after stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bustamante, Alejandro; Sobrino, Tomás; Giralt, Dolors; García-Berrocoso, Teresa; Llombart, Victor; Ugarriza, Iratxe; Espadaler, Marc; Rodríguez, Noelia; Sudlow, Cathie; Castellanos, Mar; Smith, Craig J; Rodríguez-Yánez, Manuel; Waje-Andreassen, Ulrike; Tanne, David; Oto, Jun; Barber, Mark; Worthmann, Hans; Wartenberg, Katja E; Becker, Kyra J; Chakraborty, Baidarbhi; Oh, Seung-Hun; Whiteley, William N; Castillo, José; Montaner, Joan

2014-09-15

We aimed to quantify the association of blood interleukin-6 (IL-6) concentrations with poor outcome after stroke and its added predictive value over clinical information. Meta-analysis of 24 studies confirmed this association with a weighted mean difference of 3.443 (1.592-5.294) pg/mL, despite high heterogeneity and publication bias. Individual participant data including 4112 stroke patients showed standardized IL-6 levels in the 4th quartile were independently associated with poor outcome (OR=2.346 (1.814-3.033), p<0.0001). However, the additional predictive value of IL-6 was moderate (IDI=1.5%, NRI=5.35%). Overall these results indicate an unlikely translation of IL-6 into clinical practice for this purpose. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cortical Responses to Chinese Phonemes in Preschoolers Predict Their Literacy Skills at School Age.

PubMed

Hong, Tian; Shuai, Lan; Frost, Stephen J; Landi, Nicole; Pugh, Kenneth R; Shu, Hua

2018-01-01

We investigated whether preschoolers with poor phonological awareness (PA) skills had impaired cortical basis for detecting speech feature, and whether speech perception influences future literacy outcomes in preschoolers. We recorded ERP responses to speech in 52 Chinese preschoolers. The results showed that the poor PA group processed speech changes differentially compared to control group in mismatch negativity (MMN) and late discriminative negativity (LDN). Furthermore, speech perception in kindergarten could predict literacy outcomes after literacy acquisition. These suggest that impairment in detecting speech features occurs before formal reading instruction, and that speech perception plays an important role in reading development.

Dynamic Smagorinsky model on anisotropic grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scotti, A.; Meneveau, C.; Fatica, M.

1996-01-01

Large Eddy Simulation (LES) of complex-geometry flows often involves highly anisotropic meshes. To examine the performance of the dynamic Smagorinsky model in a controlled fashion on such grids, simulations of forced isotropic turbulence are performed using highly anisotropic discretizations. The resulting model coefficients are compared with a theoretical prediction (Scotti et al., 1993). Two extreme cases are considered: pancake-like grids, for which two directions are poorly resolved compared to the third, and pencil-like grids, where one direction is poorly resolved when compared to the other two. For pancake-like grids the dynamic model yields the results expected from the theory (increasing coefficient with increasing aspect ratio), whereas for pencil-like grids the dynamic model does not agree with the theoretical prediction (with detrimental effects only on smallest resolved scales). A possible explanation of the departure is attempted, and it is shown that the problem may be circumvented by using an isotropic test-filter at larger scales. Overall, all models considered give good large-scale results, confirming the general robustness of the dynamic and eddy-viscosity models. But in all cases, the predictions were poor for scales smaller than that of the worst resolved direction.

Disorganized attachment and inhibitory capacity: predicting externalizing problem behaviors.

PubMed

Bohlin, Gunilla; Eninger, Lilianne; Brocki, Karin Cecilia; Thorell, Lisa B

2012-04-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether attachment insecurity, focusing on disorganized attachment, and the executive function (EF) component of inhibition, assessed at age 5, were longitudinally related to general externalizing problem behaviors as well as to specific symptoms of ADHD and Autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and callous-unemotional (CU) traits. General externalizing problem behaviors were also measured at age 5 to allow for a developmental analysis. Outcome variables were rated by parents and teachers. The sample consisted of 65 children with an oversampling of children with high levels of externalizing behaviors. Attachment was evaluated using a story stem attachment doll play procedure. Inhibition was measured using four different tasks. The results showed that both disorganized attachment and poor inhibition were longitudinally related to all outcome variables. Controlling for initial level of externalizing problem behavior, poor inhibition predicted ADHD symptoms and externalizing problem behaviors, independent of disorganized attachment, whereas for ASD symptoms no predictive relations remained. Disorganized attachment independently predicted CU traits.

Adolescents’ Pregnancy Intentions, Wantedness, and Regret: Cross-Lagged Relations With Mental Health and Harsh Parenting

PubMed Central

East, Patricia L.; Chien, Nina C.; Barber, Jennifer S.

2011-01-01

The authors used cross-lagged analyses to examine the across-time influences on and consequences of adolescents’ pregnancy intentions, wantedness, and regret. One hundred pregnant Latina adolescents were studied during pregnancy and at 6 and 12 months postpartum. The results revealed 4 main findings: (a) similar to what has been found in adult women, adolescents’ lower prenatal pregnancy intendedness and wantedness predicted initial difficulties in parenting; (b) frequent depression symptoms predicted subsequent lower pregnancy intendedness and wantedness; (c) adolescents’ poor mental health and harsh parenting of their child predicted subsequent higher childbearing regret, and (d) high childbearing regret and parenting stress were reciprocally related across time. In addition, adolescents’ wantedness of their pregnancy declined prenatally to postbirth, and strong pregnancy intendedness and wantedness were not concurrently related to adolescents’ poor prenatal mental health. The findings reveal how adolescents’ thoughts and feelings about their pregnancies are influenced by and predictive of their mental health and parenting experiences. PMID:22544975

Mothers' depressive symptoms and children's cognitive and social agency: Predicting first-grade cognitive functioning.

PubMed

Yan, Ni; Dix, Theodore

2016-08-01

Using data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 1,364), the present study supports an agentic perspective; it demonstrates that mothers' depressive symptoms in infancy predict children's poor first-grade cognitive functioning because depressive symptoms predict children's low social and cognitive agency-low motivation to initiate social interaction and actively engage in activities. When mothers' depressive symptoms were high in infancy, children displayed poor first-grade cognitive functioning due to (a) tendencies to become socially withdrawn by 36 months and low in mastery motivation by 54 months and (b) tendencies for children's low agency to predict declines in mothers' sensitivity and cognitive stimulation. Findings suggest that mothers' depressive symptoms undermine cognitive development through bidirectional processes centered on children's low motivation to engage in social interaction and initiate and persist at everyday tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Extending the time window for endovascular procedures according to collateral pial circulation.

PubMed

Ribo, Marc; Flores, Alan; Rubiera, Marta; Pagola, Jorge; Sargento-Freitas, Joao; Rodriguez-Luna, David; Coscojuela, Pilar; Maisterra, Olga; Piñeiro, Socorro; Romero, Francisco J; Alvarez-Sabin, Jose; Molina, Carlos A

2011-12-01

Good collateral pial circulation (CPC) predicts a favorable outcome in patients undergoing intra-arterial procedures. We aimed to determine if CPC status may be used to decide about pursuing recanalization efforts. Pial collateral score (0-5) was determined on initial angiogram. We considered good CPC when pial collateral score<3, defined total time of ischemia (TTI) as onset-to-recanalization time, and clinical improvement>4-point decline in admission-discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. We studied CPC in 61 patients (31 middle cerebral artery, 30 internal carotid artery). Good CPC patients (n=21 [34%]) had lower discharge National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (7 versus 21; P=0.02) and smaller infarcts (56 mL versus 238 mL; P<0.001). In poor CPC patients, a receiver operating characteristic curve defined a TTI cutoff point<300 minutes (sensitivity 67%, specificity 75%) that better predicted clinical improvement (TTI<300: 66.7% versus TTI>300: 25%; P=0.05). For good CPC patients, no temporal cutoff point could be defined. Although clinical improvement was similar for patients recanalizing within 300 minutes (poor CPC: 60% versus good CPC: 85.7%; P=0.35), the likelihood of clinical improvement was 3-fold higher after 300 minutes only in good CPC patients (23.1% versus 90.1%; P=0.01). Similarly, infarct volume was reduced 7-fold in good as compared with poor CPC patients only when TTI>300 minutes (TTI<300: poor CPC: 145 mL versus good CPC: 93 mL; P=0.56 and TTI>300: poor CPC: 217 mL versus good CPC: 33 mL; P<0.01). After adjusting for age and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, TTI<300 emerged as an independent predictor of clinical improvement in poor CPC patients (OR, 6.6; 95% CI, 1.01-44.3; P=0.05) but not in good CPC patients. In a logistic regression, good CPC independently predicted clinical improvement after adjusting for TTI, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, and age (OR, 12.5; 95% CI, 1.6-74.8; P=0.016). Good CPC predicts better clinical response to intra-arterial treatment beyond 5 hours from onset. In patients with stroke receiving endovascular treatment, identification of good CPC may help physicians when considering pursuing recanalization efforts in late time windows.

Computational simulations of vocal fold vibration: Bernoulli versus Navier-Stokes.

PubMed

Decker, Gifford Z; Thomson, Scott L

2007-05-01

The use of the mechanical energy (ME) equation for fluid flow, an extension of the Bernoulli equation, to predict the aerodynamic loading on a two-dimensional finite element vocal fold model is examined. Three steady, one-dimensional ME flow models, incorporating different methods of flow separation point prediction, were compared. For two models, determination of the flow separation point was based on fixed ratios of the glottal area at separation to the minimum glottal area; for the third model, the separation point determination was based on fluid mechanics boundary layer theory. Results of flow rate, separation point, and intraglottal pressure distribution were compared with those of an unsteady, two-dimensional, finite element Navier-Stokes model. Cases were considered with a rigid glottal profile as well as with a vibrating vocal fold. For small glottal widths, the three ME flow models yielded good predictions of flow rate and intraglottal pressure distribution, but poor predictions of separation location. For larger orifice widths, the ME models were poor predictors of flow rate and intraglottal pressure, but they satisfactorily predicted separation location. For the vibrating vocal fold case, all models resulted in similar predictions of mean intraglottal pressure, maximum orifice area, and vibration frequency, but vastly different predictions of separation location and maximum flow rate.

Measurement error and timing of predictor values for multivariable risk prediction models are poorly reported.

PubMed

Whittle, Rebecca; Peat, George; Belcher, John; Collins, Gary S; Riley, Richard D

2018-05-18

Measurement error in predictor variables may threaten the validity of clinical prediction models. We sought to evaluate the possible extent of the problem. A secondary objective was to examine whether predictors are measured at the intended moment of model use. A systematic search of Medline was used to identify a sample of articles reporting the development of a clinical prediction model published in 2015. After screening according to a predefined inclusion criteria, information on predictors, strategies to control for measurement error and intended moment of model use were extracted. Susceptibility to measurement error for each predictor was classified into low and high risk. Thirty-three studies were reviewed, including 151 different predictors in the final prediction models. Fifty-one (33.7%) predictors were categorised as high risk of error, however this was not accounted for in the model development. Only 8 (24.2%) studies explicitly stated the intended moment of model use and when the predictors were measured. Reporting of measurement error and intended moment of model use is poor in prediction model studies. There is a need to identify circumstances where ignoring measurement error in prediction models is consequential and whether accounting for the error will improve the predictions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Transvaginal ultrasonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women.

PubMed

Park, Kyo Hoon

2007-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of transvaginal sonographic cervical measurement in predicting failed labor induction and cesarean delivery for failure to progress in nulliparous women. One hundred and sixty-one women scheduled for labor induction underwent transvaginal ultrasonography and digital cervical examinations. Logistic regression demonstrated that cervical length and gestational age at induction, but not the Bishop score, significantly and independently predicted failed labor induction. According to the receiver operating characteristic curves analysis, the best cut-off value of cervical length for predicting failed labor induction was 28 mm, with a sensitivity of 62% and a specificity of 60%. In terms of the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress as the outcome variable, logistic regression indicated that maternal height and birth weight, but not cervical length or Bishop score, were significantly and independently associated with an increased risk of cesarean delivery for failure to progress. Transvaginal sonographic measurements of cervical length thus independently predicted failed labor induction in nulliparous women. However, the relatively poor predictive performance of this test undermines its clinical usefulness as a predictor of failed labor induction. Moreover, cervical length appears to have a poor predictive value for the likelihood of a cesarean delivery for failure to progress.

The Relationship between Stress, Coping Style, and Academic Satisfaction: A Quantitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hodge-Windover, Sheila T.

2017-01-01

College students experience a great deal of stress, which is associated with poor health and poor levels of academic satisfaction which can lead to low retention. The purpose of this quantitative correlational study was to investigate how stress and coping style predict academic satisfaction and understand how and if coping style moderates the…

Predicting Prognosis for the Conduct-Problem Boy: Can Family History Help?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Odgers, Candice L.; Milne, Barry J.; Caspi, Avshalom; Crump, Raewyn; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

2007-01-01

Objective: Many children with conduct disorder develop life-course persistent antisocial behavior; however, other children exhibit childhood-limited or adolescence-limited conduct disorder symptoms and escape poor adult outcomes. Prospective prediction of long-term prognosis in pediatric and adolescent clinical settings is difficult. Improved…

A Systematic Evaluation of Analogs for the Read-across Prediction of Estrogenicity (SOT)

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a data gap filling technique widely used within category and analog approaches to predict a biological property for a target data-poor chemical using known information from similar (source analog) chemical(s). Potential source analogs are typically identified base...

An Efficient Deterministic Approach to Model-based Prediction Uncertainty Estimation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

94035, USA abhinav.saxena@nasa.gov ABSTRACT Prognostics deals with the prediction of the end of life ( EOL ) of a system. EOL is a random variable, due...future evolution of the system, accumulating additional uncertainty into the predicted EOL . Prediction algorithms that do not account for these sources of...uncertainty are misrepresenting the EOL and can lead to poor decisions based on their results. In this paper, we explore the impact of uncertainty in

Interrelationships among invasive and non-invasive indicators of biological maturation in adolescent male soccer players.

PubMed

Malina, Robert M; Coelho E Silva, Manuel J; Figueiredo, António J; Carling, Christopher; Beunen, Gaston P

2012-01-01

The relationships among indicators of biological maturation were evaluated and concordance between classifications of maturity status in two age groups of youth soccer players examined (11-12 years, n = 87; 13-14 years, n = 93). Data included chronological age (CA), skeletal age (SA, Fels method), stage of pubic hair, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted adult height. Players were classified as on time, late or early in maturation using the SA-CA difference, predicted age at peak height velocity, and percent of predicted mature height. Factor analyses indicated two factors in players aged 11-12 years (maturity status: percent of predicted mature height, stage of pubic hair, 59% of variance; maturity timing: SA/CA ratio, predicted age at peak height velocity, 26% of variance), and one factor in players aged 13-14 years (68% of variance). Kappa coefficients were low (0.02-0.23) and indicated poor agreement between maturity classifications. Spearman rank-order correlations between categories were low to moderate (0.16-0.50). Although the indicators were related, concordance of maturity classifications between skeletal age and predicted age at peak height velocity and percent predicted mature height was poor. Talent development programmes call for the classification of youth as early, average, and late maturing for the purpose of designing training and competition programmes. Non-invasive indicators of maturity status have limitations for this purpose.

Use of cross-fostering to enhance growth of pigs that are predicted to grow poorly based on plasma a-1 acid glycoprotein concentration

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Alpha-1 acid glycoprotein (AGP) is a negative acute phase protein that can be quantified in the plasma at birth and used to predict growth rate through weaning. Neonatal plasma (AGP) may be useful as a marker to predict growth impairment and permit nutritional support to prevent the identified pigs ...

Early detection of poor adherers to statins: applying individualized surveillance to pay for performance.

PubMed

Zimolzak, Andrew J; Spettell, Claire M; Fernandes, Joaquim; Fusaro, Vincent A; Palmer, Nathan P; Saria, Suchi; Kohane, Isaac S; Jonikas, Magdalena A; Mandl, Kenneth D

2013-01-01

Medication nonadherence costs $300 billion annually in the US. Medicare Advantage plans have a financial incentive to increase medication adherence among members because the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) now awards substantive bonus payments to such plans, based in part on population adherence to chronic medications. We sought to build an individualized surveillance model that detects early which beneficiaries will fall below the CMS adherence threshold. This was a retrospective study of over 210,000 beneficiaries initiating statins, in a database of private insurance claims, from 2008-2011. A logistic regression model was constructed to use statin adherence from initiation to day 90 to predict beneficiaries who would not meet the CMS measure of proportion of days covered 0.8 or above, from day 91 to 365. The model controlled for 15 additional characteristics. In a sensitivity analysis, we varied the number of days of adherence data used for prediction. Lower adherence in the first 90 days was the strongest predictor of one-year nonadherence, with an odds ratio of 25.0 (95% confidence interval 23.7-26.5) for poor adherence at one year. The model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80. Sensitivity analysis revealed that predictions of comparable accuracy could be made only 40 days after statin initiation. When members with 30-day supplies for their first statin fill had predictions made at 40 days, and members with 90-day supplies for their first fill had predictions made at 100 days, poor adherence could be predicted with 86% positive predictive value. To preserve their Medicare Star ratings, plan managers should identify or develop effective programs to improve adherence. An individualized surveillance approach can be used to target members who would most benefit, recognizing the tradeoff between improved model performance over time and the advantage of earlier detection.

External validation of the DRAGON score in an elderly Spanish population: prediction of stroke prognosis after IV thrombolysis.

PubMed

Giralt-Steinhauer, Eva; Rodríguez-Campello, Ana; Cuadrado-Godia, Elisa; Ois, Ángel; Jiménez-Conde, Jordi; Soriano-Tárraga, Carolina; Roquer, Jaume

2013-01-01

Intravenous (i.v.) thrombolysis within 4.5 h of symptom onset has proven efficacy in acute ischemic stroke treatment, although half of all outcomes are unfavorable. The recently published DRAGON score aims to predict the 3-month outcome in stroke patients who have received i.v. alteplase. The purpose of this study was an external validation of the results of the DRAGON score in a Spanish cohort. Patients with acute stroke treated with alteplase were prospectively registered in our BasicMar database. We collected demographic characteristics, vascular risk factors, the time from stroke onset to treatment, baseline serum glucose levels and stroke severity for this population. We then reviewed hyperdense cerebral artery signs and signs of early infarct on the admission CT scan. We calculated the DRAGON score and used the developers' 3-month prognosis categories: good [modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) 0-2], poor (mRS 3-6) and miserable (mRS 5-6) outcome. Discrimination was tested using the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC-ROC). Calibration was assessed by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. Our final cohort of 297 patients was older (median age 74 years, IQR 65-80) and had more risk factors and severe strokes [median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) points 13, IQR 7-19] than the original study population. Poor prognosis was observed in 143 (48.1%) patients. Higher DRAGON scores were associated with a higher risk of poor prognosis. None of our treated stroke patients with a DRAGON score ≥8 at admission experienced a favorable outcome after 3 months. All DRAGON variables were significantly associated with a worse outcome in the multivariate analysis except for onset-to-treatment time (p = 0.334). Discrimination to predict poor prognosis was very good (AUC-ROC 0.84) and the score had good Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration (p = 0.84). The DRAGON score is easy to perform and offers a rapid, reliable prediction of poor prognosis in acute-stroke patients treated with alteplase. This study replicates the original results in a different population. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Congress of Neurological Surgeons Systematic Review and Evidence-Based Guidelines on Intraoperative Cranial Nerve Monitoring in Vestibular Schwannoma Surgery.

PubMed

Vivas, Esther X; Carlson, Matthew L; Neff, Brian A; Shepard, Neil T; McCracken, D Jay; Sweeney, Alex D; Olson, Jeffrey J

2018-02-01

Does intraoperative facial nerve monitoring during vestibular schwannoma surgery lead to better long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery regardless of tumor characteristics. Level 3: It is recommended that intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be routinely utilized during vestibular schwannoma surgery to improve long-term facial nerve function. Can intraoperative facial nerve monitoring be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Intraoperative facial nerve can be used to accurately predict favorable long-term facial nerve function after vestibular schwannoma surgery. Specifically, the presence of favorable testing reliably portends a good long-term facial nerve outcome. However, the absence of favorable testing in the setting of an anatomically intact facial nerve does not reliably predict poor long-term function and therefore cannot be used to direct decision-making regarding the need for early reinnervation procedures. Does an anatomically intact facial nerve with poor electromyogram (EMG) electrical responses during intraoperative testing reliably predict poor long-term facial nerve function? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery. Level 3: Poor intraoperative EMG electrical response of the facial nerve should not be used as a reliable predictor of poor long-term facial nerve function. Should intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: Intraoperative eighth cranial nerve monitoring should be used during vestibular schwannoma surgery when hearing preservation is attempted. Is direct monitoring of the eighth cranial nerve superior to the use of far-field auditory brain stem responses? This recommendation applies to adult patients undergoing vestibular schwannoma surgery with measurable preoperative hearing levels and tumors smaller than 1.5 cm. Level 3: There is insufficient evidence to make a definitive recommendation.  The full guideline can be found at: https://www.cns.org/guidelines/guidelines-manage-ment-patients-vestibular-schwannoma/chapter_4. Copyright © 2017 by the Congress of Neurological Surgeons

Coherent Motion Sensitivity Predicts Individual Differences in Subtraction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boets, Bart; De Smedt, Bert; Ghesquiere, Pol

2011-01-01

Recent findings suggest deficits in coherent motion sensitivity, an index of visual dorsal stream functioning, in children with poor mathematical skills or dyscalculia, a specific learning disability in mathematics. We extended these data using a longitudinal design to unravel whether visual dorsal stream functioning is able to "predict"…

A Systematic Evaulation of Analogs and Automated Read-across Prediction of Estrogenicity (BOSC)

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a data gap filling technique widely used within category and analog approaches whereby property information for a data-poor (target) chemical is predicted using one or more “similar” chemicals (source analogs). Source analogs are typically identified on the basis o...

A Systematic Evaluation of Analogs and Automated Read-across Prediction of Estrogenicity (QSAR2016)

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a data gap filling technique widely used within category and analog approaches to predict a biological property for a data-poor (target) chemical using known information from similar (source analog) chemical(s). Potential source analogs are typically identified ba...

A Systematic Evaluation of Analogs for the Read-across Prediction of Estrogenicity (Future Tox III)

EPA Science Inventory

Read-across is a data gap filling technique which is commonly used within category and analog approaches to predict a biological property for a target data-poor chemical using known information from similar (analog) chemical(s). Analog identification and evaluation are critical ...

Serum biomarkers of bone metabolism in castration resistant prostate cancer patients with skeletal metastases

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Background. Prior studies suggest that elevated markers of bone turnover are prognostic for poor survival in castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The predictive role of these markers relative to bone-targeted therapy is unknown. We prospectively evaluated the prognostic and predictive value ...

[Predictive value of qualitative assessment of general movements for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in infants with asphyxia].

PubMed

Chen, Nan; Wen, Xiao-Hong; Huang, Jin-Hua; Wang, Shui-Yun; Zhu, Yue-E

2015-12-01

To investigate the predictive value of the qualitative assessment of general movements (GMs) for adverse outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia. A total of 114 full-term asphyxiated infants, who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit between 2009 and 2012 and took part in follow-ups after discharge were included in the study. All of them received the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth. The development quotient was determined with the Bayley Scales of Infant Development at 24 months of age. The results of the qualitative assessment of GMs within 3 months after birth showed that among 114 infants, 20 (17.5%) had poor repertoire movements and 7 (6.1%) had cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period; 8 infants (7.0%) had the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period. The results of development quotient at 24 months of age showed that 7 infants (6.1%) had adverse developmental outcomes: 6 cases of cerebral palsy and mental retardation and 1 case of mental retardation. There was a poor consistency between poor repertoire movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=-0.019; P>0.05). There was a high consistency between cramped-synchronized movements during the writhing movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.848; P<0.05), and the results of predictive values of cramped-synchronized movements were shown as follows: predictive validity 98.2%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 99.1%, positive predictive value 85.7%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. There was a high consistency between the absence of fidgety movements during the fidgety movements period and the developmental outcomes at 24 months of age (Kappa=0.786; P<0.05), and its predictive values were expressed as follows: predictive validity 97.4%, sensitivity 85.7%, specificity 98.1%, positive predictive value 75.0%, and negative predictive value 99.1%. Cramped-synchronized movements and absence of fidgety movements can predict adverse developmental outcomes at 24 months of age in full-term infants with asphyxia.

Sleep Disturbances among Persons Who Are Visually Impaired: Survey of Dog Guide Users.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fouladi, Massoud K.; Moseley, Merrick J.; Jones, Helen S.; Tobin, Michael J.

1998-01-01

A survey completed by 1237 adults with severe visual impairments found that 20% described the quality of their sleep as poor or very poor. Exercise was associated with better sleep and depression with poorer sleep. However, visual acuity did not predict sleep quality, casting doubt on the idea that restricted visual input (light) causes sleep…

Acquisition of Internal Models of Motor Tasks in Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gidley Larson, Jennifer C.; Bastian, Amy J.; Donchin, Opher; Shadmehr, Reza; Mostofsky, Stewart H.

2008-01-01

Children with autism exhibit a host of motor disorders including poor coordination, poor tool use and delayed learning of complex motor skills like riding a tricycle. Theory suggests that one of the crucial steps in motor learning is the ability to form internal models: to predict the sensory consequences of motor commands and learn from errors to…

Connect-Text: Leveraging Text-Message Communication to Mitigate Chronic Absenteeism and Improve Parental Engagement in the Earliest Years of Schooling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smythe-Leistico, Kenneth; Page, Lindsay C.

2018-01-01

Poor school attendance in the early grades is predictive of poor subsequent educational outcomes. We report on a pilot intervention aiming to reduce chronic absenteeism in kindergarten. We designed and implemented a two-way, text-based parent-school communication system to encourage daily attendance, provide parents with personalized feedback on…

Social Support Moderates the Relationship between Sleep and Inflammation in a Population at High Risk for Developing Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

Tomfohr, Lianne M.; Edwards, Kate M.; Madsen, Joshua W.; Mills, Paul J.

2015-01-01

Poor sleep and low social support have each been associated with mortality and morbidity from chronic illness and a small body of research suggests that the two interact to influence systemic inflammation, whereby good social relationships may buffer the relationship between poor sleep and increased inflammation. The current study investigated interactions between sleep and social support in the prediction of inflammation in a clinical population (prehypertensive and hypertensive individuals) at high risk for the development of cardiovascular disease. Using a standardized subjective measure of sleep quality, we found that social support moderated the association between sleep and circulating levels of both IL-6 and CRP, such that poor sleep appeared to confer a risk of increased inflammation only in those participants who also reported low social support. In women, the same relationship was observed for TNF-α. These results extend previous findings into a clinical population and also demonstrate that sleep quality and social support interact in the prediction of two previously uninvestigated clinically relevant inflammatory markers (CRP and TNF-α). High levels of perceived social support may compensate for the negative health impact of poor sleep quality and vice versa. PMID:26402487

Comparative study of polymorphism frequencies of the CYP2D6, CYP3A5, CYP2C8 and IL-10 genes in Mexican and Spanish women with breast cancer.

PubMed

Alcazar-González, Gregorio Antonio; Calderón-Garcidueñas, Ana Laura; Garza-Rodríguez, María Lourdes; Rubio-Hernández, Gabriela; Escorza-Treviño, Sergio; Olano-Martin, Estibaliz; Cerda-Flores, Ricardo Martín; Castruita-Avila, Ana Lilia; González-Guerrero, Juan Francisco; le Brun, Stéphane; Simon-Buela, Laureano; Barrera-Saldaña, Hugo Alberto

2013-10-01

Pharmacogenetic studies in breast cancer (BC) may predict the efficacy of tamoxifen and the toxicity of paclitaxel and capecitabine. We determined the frequency of polymorphisms in the CYP2D6 gene associated with activation of tamoxifen, and those of the genes CYP2C8, CYP3A5 and DPYD associated with toxicity of paclitaxel and capecitabine. We also included a IL-10 gene polymorphism associated with advanced tumor stage at diagnosis. Genomic DNAs from 241 BC patients from northeast Mexico were genotyped using DNA microarray technology. For tamoxifen processing, CYP2D6 genotyping predicted that 90.8% of patients were normal metabolizers, 4.2% ultrarapid, 2.1% intermediate and 2.9% poor metabolizers. For paclitaxel and the CYP2C8 gene, 75.3% were normal, 23.4% intermediate and 1.3% poor metabolizers. Regarding the DPYD gene, only one patient was a poor metabolizer. For the IL-10 gene, 47.1% were poor metabolizers. These results contribute valuable information towards personalizing BC chemotherapy in Mexican women.

Predictive Effects of Good Self-Control and Poor Regulation on Alcohol-Related Outcomes: Do Protective Behavioral Strategies Mediate?

PubMed Central

Pearson, Matthew R.; Kite, Benjamin A.; Henson, James M.

2016-01-01

In the present study, we examined whether use of protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between self-control constructs and alcohol-related outcomes. According to the two-mode model of self-control, good self-control (planfulness; measured with Future Time Perspective, Problem Solving, and Self-Reinforcement) and poor regulation (impulsivity; measured with Present Time Perspective, Poor Delay of Gratification, Distractibility) are theorized to be relatively independent constructs rather than opposite ends of a single continuum. The analytic sample consisted of 278 college student drinkers (68% women) who responded to a battery of surveys at a single time point. Using a structural equation model based on the two-mode model of self-control, we found that good self-control predicted increased use of three types of protective behavioral strategies (Manner of Drinking, Limiting/Stopping Drinking, and Serious Harm Reduction). Poor regulation was unrelated to use of protective behavioral strategies, but had direct effects on alcohol use and alcohol problems. Further, protective behavioral strategies mediated the relationship between good self-control and alcohol use. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed. PMID:22663345

Thyroid gland involvement in advanced laryngeal cancer: association with clinical and pathologic characteristics.

PubMed

Hilly, Ohad; Raz, Raanan; Vaisbuch, Yona; Strenov, Yulia; Segal, Karl; Koren, Rumelia; Shvero, Jacob

2012-11-01

Indications for thyroidectomy during laryngectomy are controversial. We examined whether clinicopathologic features can predict thyroid gland involvement, and the prognostic effect of thyroid gland involvement in patients undergoing total laryngectomy. The study set out to review preoperative assessment, operation findings, pathologic findings, and follow-up data. Thyroid gland involvement was found in 11 of 53 patients (21%) undergoing total laryngectomy and thyroidectomy. Preoperative work-up failed to predict thyroid gland involvement. Thyroid gland involvement was associated with salvage procedures (p = .025), paratracheal metastases (p = .003), and poor overall survival (hazard ratio = 2.74, p = .008). Thyroid gland involvement in patients undergoing total laryngectomy is frequent and is associated with poor prognosis. Preoperative assessment failed to predict thyroid gland involvement. We believe that thyroidectomy should be considered in cases with paratracheal lymphatic spread irrespective of tumor location within the larynx. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Social ecology of child soldiers: child, family, and community determinants of mental health, psychosocial well-being, and reintegration in Nepal.

PubMed

Kohrt, Brandon A; Jordans, Mark J D; Tol, Wietse A; Perera, Em; Karki, Rohit; Koirala, Suraj; Upadhaya, Nawaraj

2010-11-01

This study employed a social ecology framework to evaluate psychosocial well-being in a cross-sectional sample of 142 former child soldiers in Nepal. Outcome measures included the Depression Self Rating Scale (DSRS), Child Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptom Scale (CPSS), and locally developed measures of functional impairment and reintegration. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to examine the contribution of factors at multiple levels. At the child level, traumatic exposures, especially torture, predicted poor outcomes, while education improved outcomes. At the family level, conflict-related death of a relative, physical abuse in the household, and loss of wealth during the conflict predicted poor outcomes. At the community level, living in high caste Hindu communities predicted lack of reintegration supports. Ultimately, social ecology is well suited to identify intervention foci across ecological levels based on community differences in vulnerability and protective factors.

Forecasting forecast skill

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, Eugenia; Dalcher, Amnon

1987-01-01

It is shown that it is possible to predict the skill of numerical weather forecasts - a quantity which is variable from day to day and region to region. This has been accomplished using as predictor the dispersion (measured by the average correlation) between members of an ensemble of forecasts started from five different analyses. The analyses had been previously derived for satellite-data-impact studies and included, in the Northern Hemisphere, moderate perturbations associated with the use of different observing systems. When the Northern Hemisphere was used as a verification region, the prediction of skill was rather poor. This is due to the fact that such a large area usually contains regions with excellent forecasts as well as regions with poor forecasts, and does not allow for discrimination between them. However, when regional verifications were used, the ensemble forecast dispersion provided a very good prediction of the quality of the individual forecasts.

Correlation of in vitro challenge testing with consumer use testing for cosmetic products.

PubMed Central

Brannan, D K; Dille, J C; Kaufman, D J

1987-01-01

An in vitro microbial challenge test has been developed to predict the likelihood of consumer contamination of cosmetic products. The challenge test involved inoculating product at four concentrations (30, 50, 70, and 100%) with microorganisms known to contaminate cosmetics. Elimination of these microorganisms at each concentration was followed over a 28-day period. The test was used to classify products as poorly preserved, marginally preserved, or well preserved. Consumer use testing was then used to determine whether the test predicted the risk of actual consumer contamination. Products classified by the challenge test as poorly preserved returned 46 to 90% contaminated after use. Products classified by the challenge test as well preserved returned with no contamination. Marginally preserved products returned with 0 to 21% of the used units contaminated. As a result, the challenge test described can be accurately used to predict the risk of consumer contamination of cosmetic products. PMID:3662517

Drug-like properties and the causes of poor solubility and poor permeability.

PubMed

Lipinski, C A

2000-01-01

There are currently about 10000 drug-like compounds. These are sparsely, rather than uniformly, distributed through chemistry space. True diversity does not exist in experimental combinatorial chemistry screening libraries. Absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) and chemical reactivity-related toxicity is low, while biological receptor activity is higher dimensional in chemistry space, and this is partly explainable by evolutionary pressures on ADME to deal with endobiotics and exobiotics. ADME is hard to predict for large data sets because current ADME experimental screens are multi-mechanisms, and predictions get worse as more data accumulates. Currently, screening for biological receptor activity precedes or is concurrent with screening for properties related to "drugability." In the future, "drugability" screening may precede biological receptor activity screening. The level of permeability or solubility needed for oral absorption is related to potency. The relative importance of poor solubility and poor permeability towards the problem of poor oral absorption depends on the research approach used for lead generation. A "rational drug design" approach as exemplified by Merck advanced clinical candidates leads to time-dependent higher molecular weight, higher H-bonding properties, unchanged lipophilicity, and, hence, poorer permeability. A high throughput screening (HTS)-based approach as exemplified by unpublished data on Pfizer (Groton, CT) early candidates leads to higher molecular weight, unchanged H-bonding properties, higher lipophilicity, and, hence, poorer aqueous solubility.

Math and numeracy in young adults with spina bifida and hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Dennis, Maureen; Barnes, Marcia

2002-01-01

The developmental stability of poor math skill was studied in 31 young adults with spina bifida and hydrocephalus (SBH), a neurodevelopmental disorder involving malformations of the brain and spinal cord. Longitudinally, individuals with poor math problem solving as children grew into adults with poor problem solving and limited functional numeracy. As a group, young adults with SBH had poor computation accuracy, computation speed, problem solving, a ndfunctional numeracy. Computation accuracy was related to a supporting cognitive system (working memory for numbers), and functional numeracy was related to one medical history variable (number of lifetime shunt revisions). Adult functional numeracy, but not functional literacy, was predictive of higher levels of social, personal, and community independence.

Predictive value of early amplitude-integrated electroencephalography for later diagnosed cerebral white matter damage in preterm infants.

PubMed

Song, Juan; Zhu, Changlian; Xu, Falin; Guo, Jiajia; Zhang, Yanhua

2014-10-01

 The aim of the article is to assess the predictive value of amplitude-integrated electroencephalogram (aEEG) for cerebral white matter damage (WMD) in preterm infants. Patients and  Preterms ≤ 32 weeks' gestational age (GA) born between March 2012 and December 2012 were enrolled. The aEEG patterns within 72 hours were classified and recorded to predict their neurodevelopmental prognosis and the predictive results were used to compare with the results by cerebral ultrasound examination. Neurobehavioral disorder (neonatal behavioral neurological assessment score < 35, dyskinesia or dysgnosia) or death was thought as poor neurodevelopmental prognosis. Psychomotor development index (PDI) or mental development index (MDI) ≤ 79 was regarded as dyskinesia or dysgnosia, respectively.  Of the 63 preterms, 3.2% were born < 27 weeks' gestation and 96.8% at 27 to 32 weeks' gestation. The median GA was 29.3 weeks and the median birth weight was 1,030 g. On the basis of the aEEG results, normal, mildly abnormal, and severely abnormal cases were 10, 24, and 29; whereas determined by cerebral ultrasound, normal, mild, and severe cases were 17, 20, and 26, respectively. The aEEG degree showed significantly positive correlations with both WMD and poor neurodevelopmental prognosis (p < 0.01).  Abnormal aEEG of preterm infants within 72 hours after birth may imply WMD occurrence and poor neurodevelopmental prognosis. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Predicting aged pork quality using a portable Raman device.

PubMed

Santos, C C; Zhao, J; Dong, X; Lonergan, S M; Huff-Lonergan, E; Outhouse, A; Carlson, K B; Prusa, K J; Fedler, C A; Yu, C; Shackelford, S D; King, D A; Wheeler, T L

2018-05-29

The utility of Raman spectroscopic signatures of fresh pork loin (1 d & 15 d postmortem) in predicting fresh pork tenderness and slice shear force (SSF) was determined. Partial least square models showed that sensory tenderness and SSF are weakly correlated (R 2  = 0.2). Raman spectral data were collected in 6 s using a portable Raman spectrometer (RS). A PLS regression model was developed to predict quantitatively the tenderness scores and SSF values from Raman spectral data, with very limited success. It was discovered that the prediction accuracies for day 15 post mortem samples are significantly greater than that for day 1 postmortem samples. Classification models were developed to predict tenderness at two ends of sensory quality as "poor" vs. "good". The accuracies of classification into different quality categories (1st to 4th percentile) are also greater for the day 15 postmortem samples for sensory tenderness (93.5% vs 76.3%) and SSF (92.8% vs 76.1%). RS has the potential to become a rapid on-line screening tool for the pork producers to quickly select meats with superior quality and/or cull poor quality to meet market demand/expectations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Electroencephalography Predicts Poor and Good Outcomes After Cardiac Arrest: A Two-Center Study.

PubMed

Rossetti, Andrea O; Tovar Quiroga, Diego F; Juan, Elsa; Novy, Jan; White, Roger D; Ben-Hamouda, Nawfel; Britton, Jeffrey W; Oddo, Mauro; Rabinstein, Alejandro A

2017-07-01

The prognostic role of electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management in postcardiac arrest patients, relatively to other predictors, is incompletely known. We assessed performances of electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management toward good and poor outcomes, along with other recognized predictors. Cohort study (April 2009 to March 2016). Two academic hospitals (Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland; Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN). Consecutive comatose adults admitted after cardiac arrest, identified through prospective registries. All patients were managed with targeted temperature management, receiving prespecified standardized clinical, neurophysiologic (particularly, electroencephalography during and after targeted temperature management), and biochemical evaluations. We assessed electroencephalography variables (reactivity, continuity, epileptiform features, and prespecified "benign" or "highly malignant" patterns based on the American Clinical Neurophysiology Society nomenclature) and other clinical, neurophysiologic (somatosensory-evoked potential), and biochemical prognosticators. Good outcome (Cerebral Performance Categories 1 and 2) and mortality predictions at 3 months were calculated. Among 357 patients, early electroencephalography reactivity and continuity and flexor or better motor reaction had greater than 70% positive predictive value for good outcome; reactivity (80.4%; 95% CI, 75.9-84.4%) and motor response (80.1%; 95% CI, 75.6-84.1%) had highest accuracy. Early benign electroencephalography heralded good outcome in 86.2% (95% CI, 79.8-91.1%). False positive rates for mortality were less than 5% for epileptiform or nonreactive early electroencephalography, nonreactive late electroencephalography, absent somatosensory-evoked potential, absent pupillary or corneal reflexes, presence of myoclonus, and neuron-specific enolase greater than 75 µg/L; accuracy was highest for early electroencephalography reactivity (86.6%; 95% CI, 82.6-90.0). Early highly malignant electroencephalography had an false positive rate of 1.5% with accuracy of 85.7% (95% CI, 81.7-89.2%). This study provides class III evidence that electroencephalography reactivity predicts both poor and good outcomes, and motor reaction good outcome after cardiac arrest. Electroencephalography reactivity seems to be the best discriminator between good and poor outcomes. Standardized electroencephalography interpretation seems to predict both conditions during and after targeted temperature management.

Lower NIH stroke scale scores are required to accurately predict a good prognosis in posterior circulation stroke.

PubMed

Inoa, Violiza; Aron, Abraham W; Staff, Ilene; Fortunato, Gilbert; Sansing, Lauren H

2014-01-01

The NIH stroke scale (NIHSS) is an indispensable tool that aids in the determination of acute stroke prognosis and decision making. Patients with posterior circulation (PC) strokes often present with lower NIHSS scores, which may result in the withholding of thrombolytic treatment from these patients. However, whether these lower initial NIHSS scores predict better long-term prognoses is uncertain. We aimed to assess the utility of the NIHSS at presentation for predicting the functional outcome at 3 months in anterior circulation (AC) versus PC strokes. This was a retrospective analysis of a large prospectively collected database of adults with acute ischemic stroke. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify factors associated with outcome. Additional analyses were performed to determine the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for NIHSS scores and outcomes in AC and PC infarctions. Both the optimal cutoffs for maximal diagnostic accuracy and the cutoffs to obtain >80% sensitivity for poor outcomes were determined in AC and PC strokes. The analysis included 1,197 patients with AC stroke and 372 with PC stroke. The median initial NIHSS score for patients with AC strokes was 7 and for PC strokes it was 2. The majority (71%) of PC stroke patients had baseline NIHSS scores ≤4, and 15% of these 'minor' stroke patients had a poor outcome at 3 months. ROC analysis identified that the optimal NIHSS cutoff for outcome prediction after infarction in the AC was 8 and for infarction in the PC it was 4. To achieve >80% sensitivity for detecting patients with a subsequent poor outcome, the NIHSS cutoff for infarctions in the AC was 4 and for infarctions in the PC it was 2. The NIHSS cutoff that most accurately predicts outcomes is 4 points higher in AC compared to PC infarctions. There is potential for poor outcomes in patients with PC strokes and low NIHSS scores, suggesting that thrombolytic treatment should not be withheld from these patients based solely on the NIHSS. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

On the self-serving function of an academic wooden leg: test anxiety as a self-handicapping strategy.

PubMed

Smith, C W; Snyder, D R; Handelsman, M M

1982-02-01

The present study investigated the hypothesis that psychological symptoms may serve a self-protective function by providing an alternative explanation for potential failure in evaluating situations. It was hypothesized that highly test-anxious subjects would report anxiety symptoms in a pattern that reflected strategic presentation of symptoms; more specifically, it was predicted that greater reported anxiety should result when anxiety was a viable explanation for poor performance on an intelligence test and that lower reported anxiety should result when anxiety was not a viable explanation for poor performance. Analysis of state measures of self-reported anxiety supported these predictions. Further analysis indicated that when anxiety was not a viable explanation for poor test performance, high test-anxiety subjects reported reduced effort as an alternative self-protective strategy. These results are discussed in terms of traditional models of symptoms as self-protective strategies, current social psychological models of symptoms, and in reference to recent theory and research about the nature and treatment of test anxiety.

Examining the Relationship Between Word Reading Efficiency and Oral Reading Rate in Predicting Comprehension Among Different Types of Readers

PubMed Central

Eason, Sarah H.; Sabatini, John; Goldberg, Lindsay; Bruce, Kelly; Cutting, Laurie E.

2013-01-01

To further explore contextual reading rate, an important aspect of reading fluency, we examined the relationship between word reading efficiency (WRE) and contextual oral reading rate (ORR), the degree to which they overlap across different comprehension measures, whether oral language (semantics and syntax) predicts ORR beyond contributions of word-level skills, and whether the WRE–ORR relationship varies based on different reader profiles. Assessing reading and language of average readers, poor decoders, and poor comprehenders, ages 10 to 14, ORR was the strongest predictor of comprehension across various formats; WRE contributed no unique variance after taking ORR into account. Findings indicated that semantics, not syntax, contributed to ORR. Poor comprehenders performed below average on measures of ORR, despite average WRE, expanding previous findings suggesting specific weaknesses in ORR for this group. Together, findings suggest that ORR draws upon skills beyond those captured by WRE and suggests a role for oral language (semantics) in ORR. PMID:23667307

Tracing the influence of land-use change on water quality and coral reefs using a Bayesian model.

PubMed

Brown, Christopher J; Jupiter, Stacy D; Albert, Simon; Klein, Carissa J; Mangubhai, Sangeeta; Maina, Joseph M; Mumby, Peter; Olley, Jon; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Wenger, Amelia

2017-07-06

Coastal ecosystems can be degraded by poor water quality. Tracing the causes of poor water quality back to land-use change is necessary to target catchment management for coastal zone management. However, existing models for tracing the sources of pollution require extensive data-sets which are not available for many of the world's coral reef regions that may have severe water quality issues. Here we develop a hierarchical Bayesian model that uses freely available satellite data to infer the connection between land-uses in catchments and water clarity in coastal oceans. We apply the model to estimate the influence of land-use change on water clarity in Fiji. We tested the model's predictions against underwater surveys, finding that predictions of poor water quality are consistent with observations of high siltation and low coverage of sediment-sensitive coral genera. The model thus provides a means to link land-use change to declines in coastal water quality.

The Psychosocial Context Impacts Medication Adherence after Acute Coronary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Kronish, Ian M.; Rieckmann, Nina; Burg, Matthew M.; Alcántara, Carmela; Davidson, Karina W.

2013-01-01

Background Depression is associated with poor adherence to medications and worse prognosis in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Purpose To determine whether cognitive, behavioral, and/or psychosocial vulnerabilities for depression explain the association between depression and medication adherence among ACS patients. Methods 169 ACS patients who agreed to have their aspirin adherence measured using an electronic pill bottle for 3 months were enrolled within 1 week of hospitalization. Linear regression was used to determine whether depression vulnerabilities predicted aspirin adherence after adjustment for depressive symptoms, demographics, and comorbidity. Results Of the depression vulnerabilities, only role transitions (beta = −3.32; p=0.02) and interpersonal conflict (beta −3.78; p=0.03) predicted poor adherence. Depression vulnerabilities did not mediate the association between depressive symptoms and medication adherence. Conclusions Key elements of the psychosocial context preceding the ACS including major role transitions and conflict with close contacts place ACS patients at increased risk for poor medication adherence independent of depressive symptoms. PMID:24163188

Self-rated imagery and encoding strategies in visual memory.

PubMed

Berger, G H; Gaunitz, S C

1979-02-01

The value of self-rated vividness of imagery in predicting performance was investigated, taking into account the mnemonic strategies utilized among subjects performing a visual-memory task. Subjects classified as 'good' or 'poor' imagers, according to their scores in the Vividness of Visual Imagery Questionnaire (VVIQ; Marks, 1972), were to detect as rapidly as possible differences between pairs of similar pictures presented consecutively. No coding instructions were given and the mnemonic strategies used were analysed by studying subjective reports and objective performance measurements. The results indicated that the subjects utilized two main strategies--a detail or an image strategy. The detail strategy was the more efficient. In accordance with a previous study (Berger & Gaunitz, 1977), it was found that the VVIQ did not discriminate between performance by 'good' and 'poor' imagers. However, among subjects who used the image strategy, 'good' imagers performed more rapidly than 'poor' imagers. Self-rated imagery may then have some value in predicting performance among individuals shown to have utilized an image strategy.

Low Serum Interleukin-13 Levels Correlate with Poorer Prognoses for Colorectal Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Saigusa, Susumu; Tanaka, Koji; Inoue, Yasuhiro; Toiyama, Yuji; Okugawa, Yoshinaga; Iwata, Takashi; Mohri, Yasuhiko; Kusunoki, Masato

2014-01-01

Interleukin-13 (IL-13) is an immunosuppressive cytokine produced by several immune cells and cancer cells. The aim of this retrospective study was to determine if serum IL-13 levels have an association with clinical outcome in patients with colorectal cancer. A total of 241 patients with colorectal cancer were enrolled in the present study. Preoperative serum IL-13 concentrations were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. We analyzed the association of serum IL-13 levels with clinicopathological variables. Patients with lymph node metastasis, lymphatic invasion, vascular invasion, distant metastases or advanced stage of disease had significantly lower serum IL-13 levels. Low serum IL-13 was significantly associated with both poor recurrence-free and overall survival. Multivariate analysis showed that low IL-13 levels were an independent predictive marker for poor prognosis. In conclusion, our data suggest that low serum IL-13 levels may be a useful predictive marker for poor prognosis in colorectal cancer. PMID:24833143

Knowing what to sell, when, and to whom.

PubMed

Kumar, V; Venkatesan, Rajkumar; Reinartz, Werner

2006-03-01

Despite an abundance of data, most companies do a poor job of predicting the behavior of their customers. In fact, the authors' research suggests that even companies that take the greatest trouble over their predictions about whether a particular customer will buy a particular product are correct only around 55% of the time--a result that hardly justifies the costs of having a CRM system in the first place. Businesses usually conclude from studies like this that it's impossible to use the past to predict the future, so they revert to the timeworn marketing practice of inundating their customers with offers. But as the authors explain, the reason for the poor predictions is not any basic limitation of CRM systems or the predictive power of past behavior, but rather of the mathematical methods that companies use to interpret the data. The authors have developed a new way of predicting customer behavior, based on the work of the Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel McFadden, that delivers vastly improved results. Indeed, the methodology increases the odds of successfully predicting a specific purchase by a specific customer at a specific time to about 85%, a number that will have a major impact on any company's marketing ROI. What's more, using this methodology, companies can increase revenues while reducing their frequency of customer contact-evidence that overcommunication with customers may actually damage a company's sales.

Continuous Amplitude-Integrated Electroencephalographic Monitoring Is a Useful Prognostic Tool for Hypothermia-Treated Cardiac Arrest Patients.

PubMed

Oh, Sang Hoon; Park, Kyu Nam; Shon, Young-Min; Kim, Young-Min; Kim, Han Joon; Youn, Chun Song; Kim, Soo Hyun; Choi, Seung Pill; Kim, Seok Chan

2015-09-22

Modern treatments have improved the survival rate following cardiac arrest, but prognostication remains a challenge. We examined the prognostic value of continuous electroencephalography according to time by performing amplitude-integrated electroencephalography on patients with cardiac arrest receiving therapeutic hypothermia. We prospectively studied 130 comatose patients treated with hypothermia from September 2010 to April 2013. We evaluated the time to normal trace (TTNT) as a neurological outcome predictor and determined the prognostic value of burst suppression and status epilepticus, with a particular focus on their time of occurrence. Fifty-five patients exhibited a cerebral performance category score of 1 to 2. The area under the curve for TTNT was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.99), and the sensitivity and specificity of TTNT<24 hours after resuscitation as a threshold for predicting good neurological outcome were 94.6% (95% confidence interval, 84.9%-98.9%) and 90.7% (95% confidence interval, 81.7%-96.2%), respectively. The threshold displaying 100% specificity for predicting poor neurological outcome was TTNT>36 hours. Burst suppression and status epilepticus predicted poor neurological outcome (positive predictive value of 98.3% and 96.4%, respectively). The combination of these factors predicted a negative outcome at a median of 6.2 hours after resuscitation (sensitivity and specificity of 92.0% and 96.4%, respectively). A TTNT<24 hours was associated with good neurological outcome. The lack of normal trace development within 36 hours, status epilepticus, and burst suppression were predictors of poor outcome. The combination of these negative predictors may improve their prognostic performance at an earlier stage. © 2015 The Authors.

Poor performances of EuroSCORE and CARE score for prediction of perioperative mortality in octogenarians undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis.

PubMed

Chhor, Vibol; Merceron, Sybille; Ricome, Sylvie; Baron, Gabriel; Daoud, Omar; Dilly, Marie-Pierre; Aubier, Benjamin; Provenchere, Sophie; Philip, Ivan

2010-08-01

Although results of cardiac surgery are improving, octogenarians have a higher procedure-related mortality and more complications with increased length of stay in ICU. Consequently, careful evaluation of perioperative risk seems necessary. The aims of our study were to assess and compare the performances of EuroSCORE and CARE score in the prediction of perioperative mortality among octogenarians undergoing aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis and to compare these predictive performances with those obtained in younger patients. This retrospective study included all consecutive patients undergoing cardiac surgery in our institution between November 2005 and December 2007. For each patient, risk assessment for mortality was performed using logistic EuroSCORE, additive EuroSCORE and CARE score. The main outcome measure was early postoperative mortality. Predictive performances of these scores were assessed by calibration and discrimination using goodness-of-fit test and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, respectively. During this 2-year period, we studied 2117 patients, among whom 134/211 octogenarians and 335/1906 nonoctogenarians underwent an aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis. When considering patients with aortic stenosis, discrimination was poor in octogenarians and the difference from nonoctogenarians was significant for each score (0.58, 0.59 and 0.56 vs. 0.82, 0.81 and 0.77 for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE and CARE score in octogenarians and nonoctogenarians, respectively, P < 0.05). Moreover, in the whole cohort, logistic EuroSCORE significantly overestimated mortality among octogenarians. Predictive performances of these scores are poor in octogenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, especially aortic valve replacement. Risk assessment and therapeutic decisions in octogenarians should not be made with these scoring systems alone.

Risk prediction models of breast cancer: a systematic review of model performances.

PubMed

Anothaisintawee, Thunyarat; Teerawattananon, Yot; Wiratkapun, Chollathip; Kasamesup, Vijj; Thakkinstian, Ammarin

2012-05-01

The number of risk prediction models has been increasingly developed, for estimating about breast cancer in individual women. However, those model performances are questionable. We therefore have conducted a study with the aim to systematically review previous risk prediction models. The results from this review help to identify the most reliable model and indicate the strengths and weaknesses of each model for guiding future model development. We searched MEDLINE (PubMed) from 1949 and EMBASE (Ovid) from 1974 until October 2010. Observational studies which constructed models using regression methods were selected. Information about model development and performance were extracted. Twenty-five out of 453 studies were eligible. Of these, 18 developed prediction models and 7 validated existing prediction models. Up to 13 variables were included in the models and sample sizes for each study ranged from 550 to 2,404,636. Internal validation was performed in four models, while five models had external validation. Gail and Rosner and Colditz models were the significant models which were subsequently modified by other scholars. Calibration performance of most models was fair to good (expected/observe ratio: 0.87-1.12), but discriminatory accuracy was poor to fair both in internal validation (concordance statistics: 0.53-0.66) and in external validation (concordance statistics: 0.56-0.63). Most models yielded relatively poor discrimination in both internal and external validation. This poor discriminatory accuracy of existing models might be because of a lack of knowledge about risk factors, heterogeneous subtypes of breast cancer, and different distributions of risk factors across populations. In addition the concordance statistic itself is insensitive to measure the improvement of discrimination. Therefore, the new method such as net reclassification index should be considered to evaluate the improvement of the performance of a new develop model.

Should gram stains have a role in diagnosing hip arthroplasty infections?

PubMed

Johnson, Aaron J; Zywiel, Michael G; Stroh, D Alex; Marker, David R; Mont, Michael A

2010-09-01

The utility of Gram stains in diagnosing periprosthetic infections following total hip arthroplasty has recently been questioned. Several studies report low sensitivity of the test, and its poor ability to either confirm or rule out infection in patients undergoing revision total hip arthroplasty. Despite this, many institutions including that of the senior author continue to perform Gram stains during revision total hip arthroplasty. We assessed the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive and negative predictive values of Gram stains from surgical-site samplings taken from procedures on patients with both infected and aseptic revision total hip arthroplasties. A review was performed on patients who underwent revision total hip arthroplasty between 2000 and 2007. Eighty-two Gram stains were performed on patients who had infected total hip arthroplasties and underwent revision procedures. Additionally, of the 410 revision total hip arthroplasties performed on patients who were confirmed infection-free, 120 Gram stains were performed. Patients were diagnosed as infected using multiple criteria at the time of surgery. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and accuracy were calculated from these Gram stain results. The Gram stain demonstrated a sensitivity and specificity of 9.8% and 100%, respectively. In this series, the Gram stain had a negative predictive value of 62%, a positive predictive value of 100%, and an accuracy of 63%. Gram stains obtained from surgical-site samples had poor sensitivity and poor negative predictive value. Based on these findings, as well as those of other authors, we believe that Gram stains should no longer be considered for diagnosing infections in revision total hip arthroplasty. Level III, diagnostic study. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Prospective relationship between poor sleep and substance-related problems in a national sample of adolescents

PubMed Central

Wong, Maria M.; Roberson, Gail; Dyson, Rachel

2014-01-01

Background Previous studies showed that poor sleep prospectively predicted alcohol related problems and illicit drug use in adolescents and young adults (Wong et al., 2010, 2012). However, more works needs to be done to elucidate the nature of these problems. The purpose of this study was to examine whether sleep difficulties and hours of sleep prospectively predicted several serious substance related problems, e.g., binge drinking, driving under the influence of alcohol, risky sexual behavior. Methods Study participants were 6504 adolescents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (ADD HEALTH). Data were collected from interviews and questionnaires. The current study analyzed data from the first three waves of data (T1: 1994–95; T2: 1996; T3: 2001–02). In all analyses, we used sleep difficulties at a previous wave to predict substance-related problems at a subsequent wave, while controlling for substance-related problems at a previous wave. Results Holding T1 alcohol-related problems constant, sleep difficulties at T1 significantly predicted alcohol-related interpersonal problems, binge drinking, gotten drunk or very high on alcohol, driving under the influence of alcohol, getting into a sexual situation one later regretted due to drinking, ever using any illicit drugs and drugs-related problems at T2. T1 hours of sleep negatively predicted T2 alcohol-related interpersonal problems and binge drinking. The relationship between T2 sleep variables and T3 substance-related problems were consistent with previous waves, though the effect was weaker. Conclusions Sleep difficulties and hours of sleep are a significant predictor of a number of substance-related problems. It may be useful to educate adolescents about the importance of sleep, sleep hygiene and the potential consequences of poor sleep on drinking and related behaviors. PMID:25598438

Pretransplantation soluble CD30 level as a predictor of acute rejection in kidney transplantation: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Yile; Tai, Qiang; Hong, Shaodong; Kong, Yuan; Shang, Yushu; Liang, Wenhua; Guo, Zhiyong; He, Xiaoshun

2012-11-15

The question of whether high pretransplantation soluble CD30 (sCD30) level can be a predictor of kidney transplant acute rejection (AR) is under debate. Herein, we performed a meta-analysis on the predictive efficacy of sCD30 for AR in renal transplantation. PubMed (1966-2012), EMBASE (1988-2012), and Web of Science (1986-2012) databases were searched for studies concerning the predictive efficacy of sCD30 for AR after kidney transplantation. After a careful review of eligible studies, sensitivity, specificity, and other measures of the accuracy of sCD30 were pooled. A summary receiver operating characteristic curve was used to represent the overall test performance. Twelve studies enrolling 2507 patients met the inclusion criteria. The pooled estimates for pretransplantation sCD30 in prediction of allograft rejection risk were poor, with a sensitivity of 0.70 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.66-0.74), a specificity of 0.48 (95% CI, 0.46-0.50), a positive likelihood ratio of 1.35 (95% CI, 1.20-1.53), a negative likelihood ratio of 0.68 (95% CI, 0.55-0.84), and a diagnostic odds ratio of 2.07 (95% CI, 1.54-2.80). The area under curve of the summary receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.60, indicating poor overall accuracy of the serum sCD30 level in the prediction of patients at risk for AR. The results of the meta-analysis show that the accuracy of pretransplantation sCD30 for predicting posttransplantation AR was poor. Prospective studies are needed to clarify the usefulness of this test for identifying risks of AR in transplant recipients.

Risk-Based Questionnaires Fail to Detect Adolescent Iron Deficiency and Anemia.

PubMed

Sekhar, Deepa L; Murray-Kolb, Laura E; Schaefer, Eric W; Paul, Ian M

2017-08-01

To evaluate the predictive ability of screening questionnaires to identify adolescent women at high-risk for iron deficiency or iron deficiency anemia who warrant objective laboratory testing. Cross-sectional study of 96 female individuals 12-21 years old seen at an academic medical center. Participants completed an iron deficiency risk assessment questionnaire including the 4 Bright Futures Adolescent Previsit Questionnaire anemia questions, along with depression, attention, food insecurity, and daytime sleepiness screens. Multiple linear regression controlling for age, race, and hormonal contraception use compared the predictive ability of 2 models for adolescent iron deficiency (defined as ferritin <12 mcg/L) and anemia (hemoglobin <12 g/dL). Model 1, the Bright Futures questions, was compared with model 2, which included the 4 aforementioned screens and body mass index percentile. Among participants, 18% (17/96) had iron deficiency and 5% (5/96) had iron deficiency anemia. Model 1 (Bright Futures) poorly predicted ferritin and hemoglobin values (R 2  = 0.03 and 0.08, respectively). Model 2 demonstrated similarly poor predictive ability (R 2  = 0.05 and 0.06, respectively). Mean differences for depressive symptoms (0.3, 95% CI -0.2, 0.8), attention difficulty (-0.1, 95% CI -0.5, 0.4), food insecurity (0.04, 95% CI -0.5, 0.6), daytime sleepiness (0.1, 95% CI -0.1, 0.3), and body mass index percentile (-0.04, 95% CI -0.3, 0.2) were not significantly associated with ferritin in model 2. Mean differences for hemoglobin were also nonsignificant. Risk-based surveys poorly predict objective measures of iron status using ferritin and hemoglobin. Next steps are to establish the optimal timing for objective assessment of adolescent iron deficiency and anemia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of seed removal distance by scatter-hoarding rodents in deciduous forests.

PubMed

Moore, Jeffrey E; McEuen, Amy B; Swihart, Robert K; Contreras, Thomas A; Steele, Michael A

2007-10-01

Scatter-hoarding rodents should space food caches to maximize cache recovery rate (to minimize loss to pilferers) relative to the energetic cost of carrying food items greater distances. Optimization models of cache spacing make two predictions. First, spacing of caches should be greater for food items with greater energy content. Second, the mean distance between caches should increase with food abundance. However, the latter prediction fails to account for the effect of food abundance on the behavior of potential pilferers or on the ability of caching individuals to acquire food by means other than recovering their own caches. When considering these factors, shorter cache distances may be predicted in conditions of higher food abundance. We predicted that seed caching distances would be greater for food items of higher energy content and during lower ambient food abundance and that the effect of seed type on cache distance variation would be lower during higher food abundance. We recorded distances moved for 8636 seeds of five seed types at 15 locations in three forested sites in Pennsylvania, USA, and 29 forest fragments in Indiana, U.S.A., across five different years. Seed production was poor in three years and high in two years. Consistent with previous studies, seeds with greater energy content were moved farther than less profitable food items. Seeds were dispersed less far in seed-rich years than in seed-poor years, contrary to predictions of conventional models. Interactions were important, with seed type effects more evident in seed-poor years. These results suggest that, when food is superabundant, optimal cache distances are more strongly determined by minimizing energy cost of caching than by minimizing pilfering rates and that cache loss rates may be more strongly density-dependent in times of low seed abundance.

Predictive factors for lymph node metastasis in poorly differentiated early gastric cancer and their impact on the surgical strategy

PubMed Central

Li, Hua; Lu, Ping; Lu, Yang; Liu, Cai-Gang; Xu, Hui-Mian; Wang, Shu-Bao; Chen, Jun-Qing

2008-01-01

AIM: To identify the predictive clinicopathological factors for lymph node metastasis (LNM) in poorly differentiated early gastric cancer (EGC) and to further expand the possibility of using endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) for the treatment of poorly differentiated EGC. METHODS: Data were collected from 85 poorly-differentiated EGC patients who were surgically treated. Association between the clinicopathological factors and the presence of LNM was retrospectively analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Univariate analysis showed that tumor size (OR = 5.814, 95% CI = 1.050 - 32.172, P = 0.044), depth of invasion (OR = 10.763, 95% CI = 1.259 - 92.026, P = 0.030) and lymphatic vessel involvement (OR = 61.697, 95% CI = 2.144 - 175.485, P = 0.007) were the significant and independent risk factors for LNM. The LNM rate was 5.4%, 42.9% and 50%, respectively, in poorly differentiated EGC patients with one, two and three of the risk factors, respectively. No LNM was found in 25 patients without the three risk factors. Forty-four lymph nodes were found to have metastasis, 29 (65.9%) and 15 (34.1%) of the lymph nodes involved were within N1 and beyond N1, respectively, in 12 patients with LNM. CONCLUSION: Endoscopic mucosal resection alone may be sufficient to treat poorly differentiated intramucosal EGC (≤ 2.0 cm in diameter) with no histologically-confirmed lymphatic vessel involvement. When lymphatic vessels are involved, lymph node dissection beyond limited (D1) dissection or D1+ lymph node dissection should be performed depending on the tumor location. PMID:18636670

Social cognitive markers of short-term clinical outcome in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Montreuil, Tina; Bodnar, Michael; Bertrand, Marie-Claude; Malla, Ashok K; Joober, Ridha; Lepage, Martin

2010-07-01

In psychotic disorders, impairments in cognition have been associated with both clinical and functional outcome, while deficits in social cognition have been associated with functional outcome. As an extension to a recent report on neurocognition and short-term clinical outcome in first-episode psychosis (FEP), the current study explored whether social cognitive deficits could also identify poor short-term clinical outcome among FEP patients. We defined the social-cognition domain based on the scores from the Hinting Task and the Four Factor Tests of Social Intelligence. Data were collected in 45 FEP patients and 26 healthy controls. The patients were divided into good- and poor-outcome groups based on clinical data at six months following initiation of treatment. Social cognition was compared among 27 poor-outcome, 18 good-outcome, and 26 healthy-control participants. Outcome groups significantly differed in the social cognition domain (z-scores: poor outcome=-2.0 [SD=1.4]; good outcome=-1.0 [SD=1.0]; p=0.005), with both groups scoring significantly lower than the control group (p<0.003). Moreover, outcome groups differed significantly only on the Cartoon Predictions subtest (z-scores: poor outcome=-2.7 [SD=2.7]; good outcome=-0.7 [SD=1.8]; p=0.001) among the five subtests used. Overall, social cognition appears to be compromised in all FEP patients compared to healthy controls. More interestingly, significant differences in social cognitive impairments exist between good and poor short-term clinical outcome groups, with the largest effect found in the Cartoon Predictions subtest.

Is poor mental health a risk factor for retirement? Findings from a longitudinal population survey.

PubMed

Olesen, Sarah C; Butterworth, Peter; Rodgers, Bryan

2012-05-01

Poor mental health may influence people's decisions about, and ability to, keep working into later adulthood. The identification of factors that drive retirement provides valuable information for policymakers attempting to mitigate the effects of population ageing. This study examined whether mental health predicts subsequent retirement in a general population sample, and whether this association varied with the timing of retirement. Longitudinal data from 2,803 people aged 45-75 years were drawn from five waves of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey. Discrete-time survival analyses were used to estimate the association between mental health and retirement. Mental health was measured using the Mental Health Index (MHI-5). The relative influences of other health, social, financial, and work-related predictors of retirement were considered to determine the unique contribution of mental health to retirement behaviour. Poor mental health was associated with higher rates of retirement in men (hazard rate ratio, HRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.29), and workforce exit more generally in women (HRR 1.14, 95% CI 1.07-1.22). These associations varied with the timing of retirement and were driven by early retirees specifically. Physical functioning, income, social activity, job conditions (including job stress for women and job control for men), and aspects of job satisfaction also predicted subsequent retirement. Poor mental and physical health predict workforce departure in mid-to-late adulthood, particularly early retirement. Strategies to accommodate health conditions in the workplace may reduce rates of early retirement and encourage people to remain at work into later adulthood.

The relationship between insight and the level of expressed emotion in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder.

PubMed

Ozkiris, Ayse; Essizoglu, Altan; Gulec, Gulcan; Aksaray, Gokay

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is firstly to compare the obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) patients with good insight and OCD patients with poor insight in terms of socio-demographic and clinical features; to investigate the relation between insight and the level of the expressed emotion (EE) in the patients; and lastly to specify the factors that predict level of insight. OCD patients with good insight and patients with poor insight were compared in terms of clinical features and the perceived EE level of the patients and the individuals that they live with in order to specify the factors that predict the insight level, and to investigate the relationship between insight level and EE. It was found that the total Expressed Emotion Scale, total Level of Expressed Emotion (LEE), LEE-Emotional Response and LEE-Tolerance/Expectation subscale scores of the group comprised of patients with poor insight are higher than the other group. The results also show that the duration of illness and Yale-Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale (Y-BOCS) total score predict insight level. This study shows that the level of EE perceived by the patients with poor insight and the person that he/she lives with, is higher than the group with good insight. The studies that investigate the relationship between the factors of insight level and EE level, which are indicated to determine the level of the illness severity and its chronicity, will enable the researchers to understand the importance of the role of the family on the treatment processes of OCD.

Investigation of basic cognitive predictors of reading and spelling abilities in Tunisian third-grade primary school children.

PubMed

Batnini, Soulef; Uno, Akira

2015-06-01

This study investigated first the main cognitive abilities; phonological processing, visual cognition, automatization and receptive vocabulary in predicting reading and spelling abilities in Arabic. Second, we compared good/poor readers and spellers to detect the characteristics of cognitive predictors which contribute to identifying reading and spelling difficulties in Arabic speaking children. A sample of 116 Tunisian third-grade children was tested on their abilities to read and spell, phonological processing, visual cognition, automatization and receptive vocabulary. For reading, phonological processing and automatization uniquely predicted Arabic word reading and paragraph reading abilities. Automatization uniquely predicted Arabic non-word reading ability. For spelling, phonological processing was a unique predictor for Arabic word spelling ability. Furthermore, poor readers had significantly lower scores on the phonological processing test and slower reading times on the automatization test as compared with good readers. Additionally, poor spellers showed lower scores on the phonological processing test as compared with good spellers. Visual cognitive processing and receptive vocabulary were not significant cognitive predictors of Arabic reading and spelling abilities for Tunisian third grade children in this study. Our results are consistent with previous studies in alphabetic orthographies and demonstrate that phonological processing and automatization are the best cognitive predictors in detecting early literacy problems. We suggest including phonological processing and automatization tasks in screening tests and in intervention programs may help Tunisian children with poor literacy skills overcome reading and spelling difficulties in Arabic. Copyright © 2014 The Japanese Society of Child Neurology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Declined Preoperative Aspartate Aminotransferase to Neutrophil Ratio Index Predicts Poor Prognosis in Patients with Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma after Hepatectomy

PubMed Central

Liu, Lingyun; Wang, Wei; Zhang, Yi; Long, Jianting; Zhang, Zhaohui; Li, Qiao; Chen, Bin; Li, Shaoqiang; Hua, Yunpeng; Shen, Shunli; Peng, Baogang

2018-01-01

Purpose Various inflammation-based prognostic biomarkers such as the platelet to lymphocyte ratio and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, are related to poor survival in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of the aspartate aminotransferase to neutrophil ratio index (ANRI) in ICC after hepatic resection. Materials and Methods Data of 184 patients with ICC after hepatectomy were retrospectively reviewed. The cut-off value of ANRIwas determined by a receiver operating characteristic curve. Preoperative ANRI and clinicopathological variables were analyzed. The predictive value of preoperative ANRI for prognosis of ICC was identified by univariate and multivariate analyses. Results The optimal cut-off value of ANRI was 6.7. ANRI was associated with tumor size, tumor recurrence, white blood cell, neutrophil count, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine transaminase. Univariate analysis showed that ANRI, sex, tumor number, tumor size, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis, resection margin, clinical TNM stage, neutrophil count, and carcinoembryonic antigen were markedly correlated with overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with ICC. Multivariable analyses revealed that ANRI, a tumor size > 6 cm, poor tumor differentiation, and an R1 resection margin were independent prognostic factors for both OS and DFS. Additionally, preoperative ANRI also had a significant value to predict prognosis in various subgroups of ICC, including serum hepatitis B surface antigen‒negative and preoperative elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 patients. Conclusion Preoperative declined ANRI is a noninvasive, simple, and effective predictor of poor prognosis in patients with ICC after hepatectomy. PMID:28602056

Appetite course over time and the risk of death in patients on chronic hemodialysis.

PubMed

Bossola, Maurizio; Di Stasio, Enrico; Rosa, Fausto; Dominici, Loredana; Antocicco, Manuela; Pazzaglia, Costanza; Aprile, Irene; Tazza, Luigi

2013-08-01

Appetite in patients on chronic hemodialysis (HD) may be constantly very good/good or fair/poor or may fluctuate up and down over time. When constantly fair/poor, appetite has been shown to be associated with older age, more comorbidities, and more hospitalizations; however, it is unknown if it predicts survival. The aim of the present study was to assess appetite monthly for 6 months in patients on chronic HD and to determine if the course of appetite over time predicts mortality. Ninety-two HD patients were evaluated at baseline for appetite, nutritional and inflammatory markers, comorbid conditions, and Charlson's comorbidity index. Appetite assessment was repeated monthly for 6 consecutive months. Survival in relation with the course of appetite over time was determined. Appetite was constantly very good/good in 45 patients (Group 1), fair/poor/very poor in 30 (Group 2), and fluctuated in 17 (Group 3). Twenty-seven (29.3 %) patients died after a mean period of 28 ± 13 months. Overall, the mean survival time was 42.1 ± 1.2 months. For Groups 1, 2, and 3, the mean survival time was 46.1 ± 0.92, 37.9 ± 2.5, and 39.1 ± 3.7 months, respectively (p < 0.0001). After multivariate logistic regression analysis, the course of appetite over time was not found to be an independent risk factor for mortality. The course of appetite over time does not seem to predict mortality in patients on chronic hemodialysis. Considering that the study included a relatively small number of patients, larger similar studies are desirable.

Personality predictors of dimensions of psychosocial adjustment after surgery.

PubMed

Weinryb, R M; Gustavsson, J P; Barber, J P

1997-01-01

Although many studies have examined the relationship between personality factors and adjustment after surgery, most of them have had very short follow-up periods. The present prospective study examines whether preoperative psychodynamic assessment of personality traits enhances prediction of various areas of psychosocial adjustment assessed at least 1 year after surgery. In 53 patients undergoing pelvic pouch surgery for ulcerative colitis, we examined the relationship between personality traits measured before surgery, and postoperative psychosocial adjustment assessed at a median of 17 months postoperatively, controlling for the effect of surgical functional outcome. Personality traits were assessed with the Karolinska Psychodynamic Profile (KAPP). Surgical functional outcome scales and the Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale (PAIS) were used. Problems with sexual satisfaction, perfectionistic body ideals, lack of alexithymia, and poor frustration tolerance predicted poor postoperative adjustment in various areas, beyond what was predicted by surgical functional outcome alone. Moreover, moderate preoperative levels of alexithymia were beneficial to postoperative adjustment in the area of psychological distress. The findings suggest that the preoperative assessment of the patient's long-term sexual functioning and satisfaction, the importance attached to his or her appearance, level of alexithymia, and general capacity to tolerate frustration and set-backs in life, might alert both the surgeon and the patient to potential risk factors for poor postsurgical adjustment.

External validation of the MRI-DRAGON score: early prediction of stroke outcome after intravenous thrombolysis.

PubMed

Turc, Guillaume; Aguettaz, Pierre; Ponchelle-Dequatre, Nelly; Hénon, Hilde; Naggara, Olivier; Leclerc, Xavier; Cordonnier, Charlotte; Leys, Didier; Mas, Jean-Louis; Oppenheim, Catherine

2014-01-01

The aim of our study was to validate in an independent cohort the MRI-DRAGON score, an adaptation of the (CT-) DRAGON score to predict 3-month outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients undergoing MRI before intravenous thrombolysis (IV-tPA). We reviewed consecutive (2009-2013) anterior circulation stroke patients treated within 4.5 hours by IV-tPA in the Lille stroke unit (France), where MRI is the first-line pretherapeutic work-up. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of the MRI-DRAGON score to predict poor 3-month outcome, defined as modified Rankin Score >2, using c-statistic and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, respectively. We included 230 patients (mean ±SD age 70.4±16.0 years, median [IQR] baseline NIHSS 8 [5]-[14]; poor outcome in 78(34%) patients). The c-statistic was 0.81 (95%CI 0.75-0.87), and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was not significant (p = 0.54). The MRI-DRAGON score showed good prognostic performance in the external validation cohort. It could therefore be used to inform the patient's relatives about long-term prognosis and help to identify poor responders to IV-tPA alone, who may be candidates for additional therapeutic strategies, if they are otherwise eligible for such procedures based on the institutional criteria.

Disability and self-rated health among older women and men in rural Guatemala: The role of obesity and chronic conditions

PubMed Central

Hoddinott, John; Stein, Aryeh D.

2013-01-01

Unprecedented population aging in poorer settings is coinciding with the rapid spread of obesity and other chronic conditions. These conditions predict disability and poor self-rated health and often are more prevalent in women than men. Thus, gender gaps in obesity and other chronic conditions may account for older women's greater disability and worse self-rated health in poor, rural populations, where aging, obesity, and chronic conditions are rapidly emerging. In a survey of 604 adults 50 years and older in rural Guatemala, we assessed whether gender gaps in obesity and other chronic conditions accounted for gender gaps in disability and self-rated health. Obesity strongly predicted gross-mobility (GM) disability, and the number of chronic conditions strongly predicted all outcomes, especially in women. Controlling for gender gaps in body mass index (BMI) and especially the number of chronic conditions eliminated gender gaps in GM disability, and controlling for gender gaps in the number of chronic conditions eliminated gender gaps in self-rated health. We recommend conducting longitudinal cohort studies to explore interventions that may mitigate adult obesity and chronic conditions among poor, rural older adults. Such interventions also may reduce gender gaps in later-life disability and self-rated health. PMID:20813446

Poor mental health status and aggression are associated with poor driving behavior among male traffic offenders

PubMed Central

Abdoli, Nasrin; Farnia, Vahid; Delavar, Ali; Esmaeili, Alirez; Dortaj, Fariborz; Farrokhi, Noorali; Karami, Majid; Shakeri, Jalal; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith; Brand, Serge

2015-01-01

Background In Iran, traffic accidents and deaths from traffic accidents are among the highest in the world, and generally driver behavior rather than either technical failures or environmental conditions are responsible for traffic accidents. In the present study, we explored the extent to which aggressive traits, health status, and sociodemographic variables explain driving behavior among Iranian male traffic offenders. Method A total of 443 male driving offenders (mean age: M =31.40 years, standard deviation =9.56) from Kermanshah (Iran) took part in the study. Participants completed a questionnaire booklet covering sociodemographic variables, traits of aggression, health status, and driving behavior. Results Poor health status, such as symptoms of depression, anxiety, insomnia, and social dysfunction, and also higher levels of trait aggression explained poor driving behavior. Multiple regressions indicated that poor health status, but not aggression, independently predicted poor driving behavior. Conclusion Results suggest that health status concerns are associated with poor driving behavior. Prevention and intervention might therefore focus on drivers reporting poor mental health status. PMID:26316753

Mothers' Depressive Symptoms and Children's Cognitive and Social Agency: Predicting First-Grade Cognitive Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yan, Ni; Dix, Theodore

2016-01-01

Using data from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development (N = 1,364), the present study supports an agentic perspective; it demonstrates that mothers' depressive symptoms in infancy predict children's poor first-grade cognitive functioning because depressive symptoms…

Prediction and Stability of Reading Problems in Middle Childhood

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ritchey, Kristen D.; Silverman, Rebecca D.; Schatschneider, Christopher; Speece, Deborah L.

2015-01-01

The longitudinal prediction of reading problems from fourth grade to sixth grade was investigated with a sample of 173 students. Reading problems at the end of sixth grade were defined by significantly below average performance (= 15th percentile) on reading factors defining word reading, fluency, and reading comprehension. Sixth grade poor reader…

Psychiatric Diagnoses in Historic and Contemporary Military Cohorts: Combat Deployment and the Healthy Warrior Effect

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-23

In general, the positive predictive value of screening questionnaires is quite poor when disease prevalence is modest/rare, as in the ex- ample of...of sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values with disease prevalence . Stat Med 1997;16:981–91. 26. Wolfe J, Erickson DJ

Targeting Nuclear EGFR: Strategies for Improving Cetuximab Therapy in Lung Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

has been identified in various human tumor tissues, including cancers of the breast, ovary, oropharynx, and esophagus , and has predicted poor patient...been identified in various human tumor tissues, including cancers of the breast, ovary, oropharynx, and esophagus , and has predicted...Improving Cetuximab Therapy in Lung Cancer PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Deric L Wheeler

Individualization of controlled ovarian stimulation in vitro fertilization using ovarian reserve markers.

PubMed

Grisendi, Valentina; La Marca, Antonio

2017-06-01

In assisted reproduction technologies (ART) the controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) therapy is the starting point from which a good oocytes retrieval depends. Treatment individualization is based on ovarian response prediction, which largely depends on a woman's ovarian reserve. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and antral follicle count (AFC) are considered the most accurate and reliable markers of ovarian reserve. A literature search was carried out for studies that addressed the ability of AMH and AFC to predict poor and/or excessive ovarian response in IVF cycles. According to the predicted response to ovarian stimulation (poor- normal- or high-response) is today possible not only to personalize pre-treatment counseling with the couple, but also to individualize the ovarian stimulation protocol, choosing among GnRH-agonists or antagonists for endogenous follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) suppression and formulating the FSH starting dose most adequate for the single patients. In this review we discuss how to choose the best COS therapy for the single patient, on the basis of the markers-guided ovarian response prediction.

Serum Procalcitonin for Predicting Significant Infections and Mortality in Pediatric Oncology.

PubMed

Gunasekaran, Vinod; Radhakrishnan, Nita; Dinand, Veronique; Sachdeva, Anupam

2016-12-15

To evaluate the role of serum procalcitonin (PCT) level at admission in predicting significant infections and deaths among children on chemotherapy presenting with fever. Children with clinically significant (CSI) and microbiologically documented (MDI) infections were identified using standard definitions. Association of PCT with CSI, MDI and mortality was analyzed. We evaluated 821 febrile episodes in 316 children. CSI, MDI and deaths were seen in 40.9%, 20.1% and 2.9%, respectively. PCT levels ranged from 0.05-560ng/mL. Median PCT was higher in episodes with CSI (0.80 vs. 0.28) and MDI (0.71 vs. 0.34) (P<0.001). PCT ≥0.7ng/mL optimally predicted CSI (AUC-0.740) and MDI (AUC-0.636). Relative risk of mortality for PCT ≥5ng/mL was 7.1. PCT ≥0.7ng/mL had poor sensitivity (45-55%) but good specificity and NPV (70-90%). PCT was elevated in nearly half of documented viral and fungal infections. PCT predicts significant infections and mortality in pediatric oncology but it has poor sensitivity to guide clinical decisions.

No Clinically Significant Changes in Pulmonary Function Following Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early- Stage Peripheral Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Analysis of RTOG 0236

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stanic, Sinisa, E-mail: sinisa.stanic@carle.com; Paulus, Rebecca; Timmerman, Robert D.

2014-04-01

Purpose: To investigate pulmonary function test (PFT) results and arterial blood gas changes (complete PFT) following stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) and to see whether baseline PFT correlates with lung toxicity and overall survival in medically inoperable patients receiving SBRT for early stage, peripheral, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: During the 2-year follow-up, PFT data were collected for patients with T1-T2N0M0 peripheral NSCLC who received effectively 18 Gy × 3 in a phase 2 North American multicenter study (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group [RTOG] protocol 0236). Pulmonary toxicity was graded by using the RTOG SBRT pulmonary toxicity scale. Paired Wilcoxon signedmore » rank test, logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier method were used for statistical analysis. Results: At 2 years, mean percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in the first second and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide declines were 5.8% and 6.3%, respectively, with minimal changes in arterial blood gases and no significant decline in oxygen saturation. Baseline PFT was not predictive of any pulmonary toxicity following SBRT. Whole-lung V5 (the percentage of normal lung tissue receiving 5 Gy), V10, V20, and mean dose to the whole lung were almost identical between patients who developed pneumonitis and patients who were pneumonitis-free. Poor baseline PFT did not predict decreased overall survival. Patients with poor baseline PFT as the reason for medical inoperability had higher median and overall survival rates than patients with normal baseline PFT values but with cardiac morbidity. Conclusions: Poor baseline PFT did not appear to predict pulmonary toxicity or decreased overall survival after SBRT in this medically inoperable population. Poor baseline PFT alone should not be used to exclude patients with early stage lung cancer from treatment with SBRT.« less

Testing mapping algorithms of the cancer-specific EORTC QLQ-C30 onto EQ-5D in malignant mesothelioma.

PubMed

Arnold, David T; Rowen, Donna; Versteegh, Matthijs M; Morley, Anna; Hooper, Clare E; Maskell, Nicholas A

2015-01-23

In order to estimate utilities for cancer studies where the EQ-5D was not used, the EORTC QLQ-C30 can be used to estimate EQ-5D using existing mapping algorithms. Several mapping algorithms exist for this transformation, however, algorithms tend to lose accuracy in patients in poor health states. The aim of this study was to test all existing mapping algorithms of QLQ-C30 onto EQ-5D, in a dataset of patients with malignant pleural mesothelioma, an invariably fatal malignancy where no previous mapping estimation has been published. Health related quality of life (HRQoL) data where both the EQ-5D and QLQ-C30 were used simultaneously was obtained from the UK-based prospective observational SWAMP (South West Area Mesothelioma and Pemetrexed) trial. In the original trial 73 patients with pleural mesothelioma were offered palliative chemotherapy and their HRQoL was assessed across five time points. This data was used to test the nine available mapping algorithms found in the literature, comparing predicted against observed EQ-5D values. The ability of algorithms to predict the mean, minimise error and detect clinically significant differences was assessed. The dataset had a total of 250 observations across 5 timepoints. The linear regression mapping algorithms tested generally performed poorly, over-estimating the predicted compared to observed EQ-5D values, especially when observed EQ-5D was below 0.5. The best performing algorithm used a response mapping method and predicted the mean EQ-5D with accuracy with an average root mean squared error of 0.17 (Standard Deviation; 0.22). This algorithm reliably discriminated between clinically distinct subgroups seen in the primary dataset. This study tested mapping algorithms in a population with poor health states, where they have been previously shown to perform poorly. Further research into EQ-5D estimation should be directed at response mapping methods given its superior performance in this study.

A Simple Algorithm for Predicting Bacteremia Using Food Consumption and Shaking Chills: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Komatsu, Takayuki; Takahashi, Erika; Mishima, Kentaro; Toyoda, Takeo; Saitoh, Fumihiro; Yasuda, Akari; Matsuoka, Joe; Sugita, Manabu; Branch, Joel; Aoki, Makoto; Tierney, Lawrence; Inoue, Kenji

2017-07-01

Predicting the presence of true bacteremia based on clinical examination is unreliable. We aimed to construct a simple algorithm for predicting true bacteremia by using food consumption and shaking chills. A prospective multicenter observational study. Three hospital centers in a large Japanese city. In total, 1,943 hospitalized patients aged 14 to 96 years who underwent blood culture acquisitions between April 2013 and August 2014 were enrolled. Patients with anorexia-inducing conditions were excluded. We assessed the patients' oral food intake based on the meal immediately prior to the blood culture with definition as "normal food consumption" when >80% of a meal was consumed and "poor food consumption" when <80% was consumed. We also concurrently evaluated for a history of shaking chills. We calculated the statistical characteristics of food consumption and shaking chills for the presence of true bacteremia, and subsequently built the algorithm by using recursive partitioning analysis. Among 1,943 patients, 223 cases were true bacteremia. Among patients with normal food consumption, without shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 2.4% (13/552). Among patients with poor food consumption and shaking chills, the incidence of true bacteremia was 47.7% (51/107). The presence of poor food consumption had a sensitivity of 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.4%-97.9%) for true bacteremia, and the absence of poor food consumption (ie, normal food consumption) had a negative likelihood ratio (LR) of 0.18 (95% CI, 0.17-0.19) for excluding true bacteremia, respectively. Conversely, the presence of the shaking chills had a specificity of 95.1% (95% CI, 90.7%-99.4%) and a positive LR of 4.78 (95% CI, 4.56-5.00) for true bacteremia. A 2-item screening checklist for food consumption and shaking chills had excellent statistical properties as a brief screening instrument for predicting true bacteremia. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

Circulating CD147 predicts mortality in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Lee, Aimei; Rode, Anthony; Nicoll, Amanda; Maczurek, Annette E; Lim, Lucy; Lim, Seok; Angus, Peter; Kronborg, Ian; Arachchi, Niranjan; Gorelik, Alexandra; Liew, Danny; Warner, Fiona J; McCaughan, Geoffrey W; McLennan, Susan V; Shackel, Nicholas A

2016-02-01

The glycoprotein CD147 has a role in tumor progression, is readily detectable in the circulation, and is abundantly expressed in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Advanced HCC patients are a heterogeneous group with some individuals having dismal survival. The aim of this study was to examine circulating soluble CD147 levels as a prognostic marker in HCC patients. CD147 was measured in 277 patients (110 HCC, 115 chronic liver disease, and 52 non-liver disease). Clinical data included etiology, tumor progression, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, and treatment response. Patients with HCC were stratified into two groups based upon the 75th percentile of CD147 levels (24 ng/mL). CD147 in HCC correlated inversely with poor survival (P = 0.031). Increased CD147 predicted poor survival in BCLC stages C and D (P = 0.045), and CD147 levels >24 ng/mL predicted a significantly diminished 90-day and 180-day survival time (hazard ratio [HR] = 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-63.2; P = 0.0045 and HR = 2.8; 95% CI: 1.2-12.6; P = 0.028, respectively). In BCLC stage C, CD147 predicted prognosis; levels >24 ng/mL were associated with a median survival of 1.5 months compared with 6.5 months with CD147 levels ≤24 ng/mL (P = 0.03). CD147 also identified patients with a poor prognosis independent from treatment frequency, modality, and tumor size. Circulating CD147 is an independent marker of survival in advanced HCC. CD147 requires further evaluation as a potential new prognostic measure in HCC to identify patients with advanced disease who have a poor prognosis. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Premorbid social adjustment and association with attenuated psychotic symptoms in clinical high-risk and help-seeking youth.

PubMed

Tarbox-Berry, S I; Perkins, D O; Woods, S W; Addington, J

2018-04-01

Attenuated positive symptom syndrome (APSS), characterized by 'putatively prodromal' attenuated psychotic-like pathology, indicates increased risk for psychosis. Poor premorbid social adjustment predicts severity of APSS symptoms and predicts subsequent psychosis in APSS-diagnosed individuals, suggesting application for improving detection of 'true' prodromal youth who will transition to psychosis. However, these predictive associations have not been tested in controls and therefore may be independent of the APSS diagnosis, negating utility for improving prediction in APSS-diagnosed individuals. Association between premorbid social maladjustment and severity of positive, negative, disorganized, and general APSS symptoms was tested in 156 individuals diagnosed with APSS and 76 help-seeking (non-APSS) controls enrolled in the Enhancing the Prospective Prediction of Psychosis (PREDICT) study using prediction analysis. Premorbid social maladjustment was associated with social anhedonia, reduced expression of emotion, restricted ideational richness, and deficits in occupational functioning, independent of the APSS diagnosis. Associations between social maladjustment and suspiciousness, unusual thought content, avolition, dysphoric mood, and impaired tolerance to normal stress were uniquely present in participants meeting APSS criteria. Social maladjustment was associated with odd behavior/appearance and diminished experience of emotions and self only in participants who did not meet APSS criteria. Predictive associations between poor premorbid social adjustment and attenuated psychotic-like pathology were identified, a subset of which were indicative of high risk for psychosis. This study offers a method for improving risk identification while ruling out low-risk individuals.

[Predictive factors of the outcomes of prenatal hydronephrosis.

PubMed

Bragagnini, Paolo; Estors, Blanca; Delgado, Reyes; Rihuete, Miguel Ángel; Gracia, Jesús

2016-12-01

To determine prenatal and postnatal independent predictors of poor outcome, spontaneous resolution, or the need for surgery in patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. We performed a retrospective study of patients with prenatal hydronephrosis. The renal pelvis APD was measured in the third prenatal trimester ultrasound, as well as in the first and second postnatal ultrasound. Other variables were taken into account, both prenatal and postnatal. For statistical analysis we used Student t-test, chi-square test, survival analysis, logrank test, and ROC curves. We included 218 patients with 293 renal units (RU). Of these, 147/293 (50.2%) RU were operated. 76/293 (25.9%) RU had spontaneous resolution and other 76/293 (25.9%) RU had poor outcome. As risk factors for surgery we found low birth weight (OR 3.84; 95% CI 1.24-11.84), prematurity (OR 4.17; 95% CI 1.35-12.88), duplication (OR 4.99; 95% CI 2.21-11.23) and the presence of nephrourological underlying pathology (OR 53.54; 95% CI 26.23-109.27). For the non-spontaneous resolution, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (RR 1.46; 95% CI 1.33-1.60) as well as the underlying nephrourological pathology and duplication. In the poor outcome, we found as risk factors the alterations of amniotic fluid volume (OR 4.54; 95% CI 1.31-15.62), the presence of nephrourological pathology (OR 4.81 95% CI 2.60-8.89) and RU that was operated (OR 4.23, 95% CI 2.35-7.60). The APD of the renal pelvis in all three ultrasounds were reliable for surgery prediction (area under the curve 0.65; 0.82; 0.71) or spontaneous resolution (area under the curve 0.80; 0.91; 0.80), only the first postnatal ultrasound has predictive value in the poor outcome (area under the curve 0.73). The higher sensitivity and specificity of the APD as predictor value was on the first postnatal ultrasound, 14.60 mm for surgery; 11.35 mm for spontaneous resolution and 15.50 mm for poor outcome. The higher APD in the renal pelvis in any of the three ultrasounds, the greater the chances of surgery and failure of spontaneous resolution. The first postnatal ultrasound is the most reliable in predicting outcome of prenatal hydronephrosis. There are other factors to take into account to predict the outcomes of these patients.

Soviet Economic Policy Towards Eastern Europe

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

high. Without specifying the determinants of Soviet demand for "allegiance" in more detail, the model is not testable; we cannot predict how subsidy...trade inside (Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria). These countries are behaving as predicted by the model . If this hypothesis is true, the pattern of subsidies...also compares the sum of per capita subsidies by country between 1970 and 1982 with the sum of subsidies predicted by the model . Because of the poor

Predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus: A prospective study.

PubMed

Atmaca, Murat Mert; Bebek, Nerses; Baykan, Betül; Gökyiğit, Ayşen; Gürses, Candan

2017-10-01

The objective of this study was to determine the predictors of outcomes and refractoriness in status epilepticus (SE). This is a prospective study of 59 adult patients with SE who were admitted to the Emergency Department between February 2012 and December 2013. The effects of clinical, demographic, and electrophysiologic features of patients with SE were evaluated. To evaluate outcome in SE, STESS, mSTESS, and EMSE scales were used. Logistic regression analysis showed that being aged ≥65years (p=0.02, OR: 17.68, 95% CI: [1.6-198.4]) for the short term and having potentially fatal etiology (p=0.027, OR: 11.7, 95% CI: [1.3-103]) for the long term were the only independent predictors of poor outcomes; whereas, the presence of periodic epileptiform discharges (PEDs) in EEG was the only independent predictor of refractoriness (p=0.032, OR: 13.7, 95% CI: [1.3-148.5]). The patients with ≥3 Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) did not have poorer outcomes in the short- (p=0.157) and long term (p=0.065). There was no difference between patients with 0-2, 3-4, and ≥4 mSTESS in the short- and long term in terms of outcome (p=0.28 and 0.063, respectively). Also, there was no difference between subgroups (convulsive SE [CSE], nonconvulsive SE [NCSE], and epilepsia partialis continua [EPC]) in terms of STESS and mSTESS. When patients with EPC were excluded, both STESS and mSTESS scores of the patients correlated with poorer long-term outcomes (p=0.025 and 0.017, respectively). The patients with ≥64 points in the Epidemiology-based Mortality in SE-Etiology, age, comorbidity, EEG (EMSE-EACE) score and those with ≥27 points in EMSE-Etiology, age, comorbidity (EMSE-EAC) score did not have poorer outcomes in the short term (p=0.06 and 0.274, respectively) while they had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p<0.001 and 0.002, respectively). In subgroup analysis, patients with CSE with ≥64 points in EMSE-EACE had significantly poorer outcome in the both short- and long term (p=0.014 and 0.012, respectively), and patients with CSE with ≥27 points in EMSE-EAC had significantly poorer outcome in the long term (p=0.03) but not in the short term (p=0.186). Outcomes did not correlate with EMSE scores in patients with NCSE and EPC. Status epilepticus was terminated with intravenous (IV) levetiracetam (LEV) in 68.75% of patients and with IV phenytoin (PHT) in 83.3% of patients. No statistically significant difference was found between the two groups in terms of efficacy (p=0.334). Being aged ≥65years predicts poor short-term outcomes, and having potentially fatal etiology predicts poor long-term outcomes, which highlight the importance of SE treatment management in the elderly. Both STESS and mSTESS are not predictive for poor outcomes in EPC. Excluding patients with EPC, STESS, and mSTESS could predict poor long-term outcomes but not in the short term in SE. Epidemiology-based Mortality in Status Epilepticus score could predict poor outcome in the long term better than STESS and mSTESS. Specifically, EMSE scores correlated with poor outcome in patients with CSE but not with NCSE and EPC. New scales are needed to predict outcome especially in patients with NCSE and EPC. The presence of PEDs in EEG is a predictor of RSE, and EMSE score can also be used to predict RSE. There was no difference in the efficacy of IV LEV and IV PHT in SE. This study is significant for having one of the longest follow-up periods in the literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Spot Sign, Blend Sign and Black Hole Sign for Outcome Prediction in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage

PubMed Central

Sporns, Peter B.; Schwake, Michael; Kemmling, André; Minnerup, Jens; Schwindt, Wolfram; Niederstadt, Thomas; Schmidt, Rene; Hanning, Uta

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose Blend sign (BS) and black hole sign (BHS) on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) and spot sign (SS) on CT-angiography (CTA) are indicators of early hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, their independent contributions to outcome have not been well explored. Methods In this retrospective study, inclusion criteria were: 1) spontaneous ICH and 2) NCCT and CTA performed on admission within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. Discharge outcome was dichotomized as good (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] 0-3) and poor (mRS 4-6) outcomes. The impacts of BHS, BS and SS on outcome were assessed in univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. Results Of 182 patients with spontaneous ICH, 26 (14.3%) presented with BHS, 37 (20.3%) with BS and 39 (21.4%) with SS. There was a substantial correlation between SS and BS (κ=0.701) and a moderate correlation between SS and BHS (κ=0.424). In univariable logistic regression, higher baseline hematoma volume (P<0.001), intraventricular hemorrhage (P=0.002) and the presence of BHS/BS/SS (all P<0.001) on admission CT scan were associated with poor outcome. Multivariable analysis identified intraventricular haemorrhage (odds ratio [OR] 2.22 per mL, P=0.022), baseline hematoma volume (OR 1.03 per mL, P<0.001) and SS on CTA (OR 11.43, P<0.001) as independent predictors of poor outcome, showing that SS compared to BS and BHS was more powerful to predict poor outcome. Conclusions The NCCT BHS and BS are correlated with the CTA SS and are reliable predictors of poor outcome in patients with ICH. Of the CT variables indicating early hematoma expansion, SS on CTA was the most reliable outcome predictor. However, given their correlation with SS on CTA, BS and BHS on NCCT can be useful for predicting outcome if CTA is not obtainable. PMID:29037015

Comparison of Spot Sign, Blend Sign and Black Hole Sign for Outcome Prediction in Patients with Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PubMed

Sporns, Peter B; Schwake, Michael; Kemmling, André; Minnerup, Jens; Schwindt, Wolfram; Niederstadt, Thomas; Schmidt, Rene; Hanning, Uta

2017-09-01

Blend sign (BS) and black hole sign (BHS) on non-contrast computed tomography (NCCT) and spot sign (SS) on CT-angiography (CTA) are indicators of early hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). However, their independent contributions to outcome have not been well explored. In this retrospective study, inclusion criteria were: 1) spontaneous ICH and 2) NCCT and CTA performed on admission within 6 hours after onset of symptoms. Discharge outcome was dichotomized as good (modified Rankin Scale [mRS] 0-3) and poor (mRS 4-6) outcomes. The impacts of BHS, BS and SS on outcome were assessed in univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. Of 182 patients with spontaneous ICH, 26 (14.3%) presented with BHS, 37 (20.3%) with BS and 39 (21.4%) with SS. There was a substantial correlation between SS and BS (κ=0.701) and a moderate correlation between SS and BHS (κ=0.424). In univariable logistic regression, higher baseline hematoma volume ( P <0.001), intraventricular hemorrhage ( P =0.002) and the presence of BHS/BS/SS (all P <0.001) on admission CT scan were associated with poor outcome. Multivariable analysis identified intraventricular haemorrhage (odds ratio [OR] 2.22 per mL, P =0.022), baseline hematoma volume (OR 1.03 per mL, P <0.001) and SS on CTA (OR 11.43, P <0.001) as independent predictors of poor outcome, showing that SS compared to BS and BHS was more powerful to predict poor outcome. The NCCT BHS and BS are correlated with the CTA SS and are reliable predictors of poor outcome in patients with ICH. Of the CT variables indicating early hematoma expansion, SS on CTA was the most reliable outcome predictor. However, given their correlation with SS on CTA, BS and BHS on NCCT can be useful for predicting outcome if CTA is not obtainable.

Ten-year follow-up of SpA-related oligoarthritis involving the knee: the presence of psoriasis but not HLA-B27 or baseline MRI bone oedema predicts outcome.

PubMed

Bennett, Alexander N; Marzo-Ortega, Helena; Tan, Ai Lyn; Hensor, Elizabeth M A; Green, Mike; Emery, Paul; McGonagle, Dennis

2012-06-01

Bone marrow oedema (BMO) and HLA-B27 are poor prognostic factors in axial SpA, and psoriasis is a poor prognostic factor in small-joint polyarthropathy. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of HLA-B27, MRI BMO and psoriasis on long-term outcomes in early SpA-related knee joint oligoarthritis. Patients with SpA-related oligoarthritis with knee involvement were recruited. Baseline assessment included ESSG criteria, RF, HLA-B27 and MRI. The degree of MRI BMO was determined on fat-suppression sequences and scored using the whole-organ magnetic resonance imaging score (WORMS) (range 0-45). Patients were treated at the discretion of their rheumatologist and followed up for 10 years. Outcome assessments included joint counts, functional and symptomatic questionnaire, CRP and radiographic assessment for OA. Forty-four patients were recruited [mean age 32 years (range 15-59 years), 70% male] with a mean disease duration at baseline of 9.75 months (1-48 months). Twenty-six (59%) patients (mean age 43 years, 65% male) returned for follow-up after a mean of 10 years (range 8.4-12.6 years). Ten (38%) patients had persistent clinical synovitis and 31% of knees had secondary radiographic OA. Global outcome was poor/very poor in 69% of cases. The only factor predicting outcome at 10 years was psoriasis, but neither HLA-B27 nor BMO. PsA patients had significantly worse global outcome compared with ReA (P = 0.036), and significantly worse symptomatic (P = 0.001) and functional (P = 0.001) outcome compared with other subtypes. SpA-related knee joint oligoarthritis has significant long-term clinical and radiological morbidity despite standard treatments. HLA-B27 and MRI BMO were not predictors of poor outcome as they are in axial SpA; however, the presence of psoriasis predicted significantly worse outcome.

Diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) of hepatocellular carcinomas: a retrospective analysis of the correlation between qualitative and quantitative DWI and tumour grade.

PubMed

Jiang, T; Xu, J H; Zou, Y; Chen, R; Peng, L R; Zhou, Z D; Yang, M

2017-06-01

To evaluate the application of qualitative and quantitative diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) in predicting the histological grade of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Two hundred and fifty-four patients with pathologically confirmed HCC who underwent hepatic DWI on a 1.5-T platform (b = 0, 600 s/mm 2 ) were evaluated retrospectively. HCCs were divided into well-, moderately, and poorly differentiated groups. The relationships between naked-eye signal intensity (SI), SI values, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values on DWI, and the histopathological differentiation of HCC were analysed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were drawn to determine the optimal operating points (OOPs) of the SI and ADC values to predict the tumour grade. A weak negative correlation (r=-0.350, p<0.05) was obtained between naked-eye SI and histological grade. There was a significant difference in mean SI values between well- (68.32±31.71) and moderately (102.39±45.55)/poorly (114.55±32.15) differentiated HCC but not between moderately and poorly differentiated HCC. The OOP of the SI value by ROC curve analysis was 66.5 to predict well-differentiated HCC. The mean ADC values of well-, moderately, and poorly differentiated HCC were 1.67±0.13×10 -3 , 1.31±0.16×10 -3 , and 1.08±0.11×10 -3  mm 2 /s, respectively, with significant differences between any two combinations of groups. The OOPs of ADC to diagnose well- and poorly differentiated HCC were 1.5×10 -3 and 1.24×10 -3  mm 2 /s, respectively. Qualitative and quantitative SI and ADC values at DWI may be useful to estimate the histological grade of HCC preoperatively and non-invasively. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correspondence between the CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 genotypes with the inferred metabolizer phenotype by omeprazole administration in Mexican healthy children.

PubMed

Favela-Mendoza, A F; Martínez-Cortes, G; Romero-Prado, M M; Romero-Tejeda, E M; Islas-Carbajal, M C; Sosa-Macias, M; Lares-Asseff, I; Rangel-Villalobos, H

2018-05-07

CYP2C19 genotypes presumably allow the prediction of the metabolizer phenotypes: poor (PMs), extensive (EMs) and ultra-rapid (UMs). However, evidence from previous studies regarding this predictive power is unclear, which is important because the benefits expected by healthcare institutions and patients are based on this premise. Therefore, we aimed to complete a formal evaluation of the diagnostic value of CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 genes for predicting metabolizer phenotypes established by omeprazole (OME) administration in 118 healthy children from Jalisco (western Mexico). The genotypes for CYP3A4*1B and CYP2C19*2, *3, *4, *5 and *17 alleles were determined. CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 phenotypes were obtained after 20 mg OME administration and HPLC quantification in plasma to estimate the Hydroxylation Index (HI = OME/HOME) and Sulfonation Index (SI = OME/SOME), respectively. The distribution of genotypes and phenotypes for CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 was similar to previous studies in Mexico and Latin America. We estimated the CYP2C19 UM, EM and PM phenotype frequency in 0.84%, 96.61% and 2.54%, respectively. Although differences in the HI distribution were observed between CYP2C19 genotypes, they showed a poor diagnostic ability to predict the CYP2C19 metabolizer phenotype. Similarly, the number of CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 functional alleles was correlated with the HI distribution, but also their diagnostic ability to predict the CYP2C19 phenotype was poor. The CYP2C19 phenotype is not predicted by the number of functional alleles of CYP2C19 and CYP3A4 genes. Phenotyping is still the most valuable alternative to dose individualization for CYP2C19 substrate drugs. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Childhood maltreatment and adulthood poor sleep quality: a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Abajobir, Amanuel A; Kisely, Steve; Williams, Gail; Strathearn, Lane; Najman, Jake M

2017-08-01

Available evidence from cross-sectional studies suggests that childhood maltreatment may be associated with a range of sleep disorders. However, these studies have not controlled for potential individual-, familial- and environmental-level confounders. To determine the association between childhood maltreatment and lower sleep quality after adjusting for potential confounders. Data for the present study were obtained from a pre-birth cohort study of 3778 young adults (52.6% female) of the Mater Hospital-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy follow up at a mean age of 20.6 years. The Mater Hospital-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy is a prospective Australian pre-birth cohort study of mothers consecutively recruited during their first obstetric clinic visit at Brisbane's Mater Hospital in 1981-1983. Participants completed the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index at the 21-year follow up. We linked this dataset to agency-recorded substantiated cases of childhood maltreatment. A series of separate logistic regression models was used to test whether childhood maltreatment predicted lower sleep quality after adjustment for selected confounders. Substantiated physical abuse significantly predicted lower sleep quality in males. Single and multiple forms of childhood maltreatment, including age of maltreatment and number of substantiations, did not predict lower sleep quality in either gender in both crude and adjusted models. Not being married, living in a residential problem area, cigarette smoking and internalising were significantly associated with lower sleep quality in a fully adjusted model for the male-female combined sample. Childhood maltreatment does not appear to predict young adult poor sleep quality, with the exception of physical abuse for males. While childhood maltreatment has been found to predict a range of mental health problems, childhood maltreatment does not appear to predict sleep problems occurring in young adults. Poor sleep quality was accounted for by concurrent social disadvantage, cigarette smoking and internalising. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Predicting Employment in the Mental Health Treatment Study: Do Client Factors Matter?

PubMed

Metcalfe, Justin D; Drake, Robert E; Bond, Gary R

2017-05-01

For people with psychiatric disabilities, demographic characteristics and measures of clinical status are often used to allocate scarce employment services. This study examined a battery of potential client predictors of competitive employment, testing the hypothesis that evidence-based supported employment would mitigate the negative effects of poor work history, uncontrolled symptoms, substance abuse, and other client factors. In a secondary analysis of 2055 unemployed Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries with schizophrenia or affective disorders, we examined 20 baseline client factors as predictors of competitive employment. The analysis used logistic regression to identify significant client predictors and then examined interactions between significant predictors and receipt of evidence-based supported employment. Work history was a strong predictor of employment, and other client measures (fewer years on disability rolls, Hispanic ethnicity, and fewer physical health problems) were modestly predictive. Evidence-based supported employment mitigated negative client factors, including poor work history. Participants with a poor work history benefitted from supported employment even more than those with a recent work experience. Evidence-based supported employment helps people with serious mental illness, especially those with poor job histories, to obtain competitive employment. Factors commonly considered barriers to employment, such as diagnosis, substance use, hospitalization history, and misconceptions about disability benefits, often have little or no impact on competitive employment outcomes.

COX-2 verexpression in pretreatment biopsies predicts response of rectal cancers to neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Fraser M.; Reynolds, John V.; Kay, Elaine W.

2006-02-01

Purpose: To determine the utility of COX-2 expression as a response predictor for patients with rectal cancer who are undergoing neoadjuvant radiochemotherapy (RCT). Methods and Materials: Pretreatment biopsies (PTB) from 49 patients who underwent RCT were included. COX-2 and proliferation in PTB were assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) and apoptosis was detected by TUNEL stain. Response to treatment was assessed by a 5-point tumor-regression grade (TRG) based on the ratio of residual tumor to fibrosis. Results: Good response (TRG 1 + 2), moderate response (TRG 3), and poor response (TRG 4 + 5) were seen in 21 patients (42%), 11 patientsmore » (22%), and 17 patients (34%), respectively. Patients with COX-2 overexpression in PTB were more likely to demonstrate moderate or poor response (TRG 3 + 4) to treatment than were those with normal COX-2 expression (p = 0.026, chi-square test). Similarly, poor response was more likely if patients had low levels of spontaneous apoptosis in PTBs (p = 0.0007, chi-square test). Conclusions: COX-2 overexpression and reduced apoptosis in PTB can predict poor response of rectal cancer to RCT. As COX-2 inhibitors are commercially available, their administration to patients who overexpress COX-2 warrants assessment in clinical trials in an attempt to increase overall response rates.« less

Natural Language Processing for Cohort Discovery in a Discharge Prediction Model for the Neonatal ICU.

PubMed

Temple, Michael W; Lehmann, Christoph U; Fabbri, Daniel

2016-01-01

Discharging patients from the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) can be delayed for non-medical reasons including the procurement of home medical equipment, parental education, and the need for children's services. We previously created a model to identify patients that will be medically ready for discharge in the subsequent 2-10 days. In this study we use Natural Language Processing to improve upon that model and discern why the model performed poorly on certain patients. We retrospectively examined the text of the Assessment and Plan section from daily progress notes of 4,693 patients (103,206 patient-days) from the NICU of a large, academic children's hospital. A matrix was constructed using words from NICU notes (single words and bigrams) to train a supervised machine learning algorithm to determine the most important words differentiating poorly performing patients compared to well performing patients in our original discharge prediction model. NLP using a bag of words (BOW) analysis revealed several cohorts that performed poorly in our original model. These included patients with surgical diagnoses, pulmonary hypertension, retinopathy of prematurity, and psychosocial issues. The BOW approach aided in cohort discovery and will allow further refinement of our original discharge model prediction. Adequately identifying patients discharged home on g-tube feeds alone could improve the AUC of our original model by 0.02. Additionally, this approach identified social issues as a major cause for delayed discharge. A BOW analysis provides a method to improve and refine our NICU discharge prediction model and could potentially avoid over 900 (0.9%) hospital days.

The use of presurgical psychological screening to predict the outcome of spine surgery.

PubMed

Block, A R; Ohnmeiss, D D; Guyer, R D; Rashbaum, R F; Hochschuler, S H

2001-01-01

Several previous studies have shown that psychosocial factors can influence the outcome of elective spine surgery. The purpose of the current study was to determine how well a presurgical screening instrument could predict surgical outcome. The study was conducted by staff of a psychologist's office. They performed preoperative screening for spine surgery candidates and collected the follow-up data. Presurgical screening and follow-up data collection was performed on 204 patients who underwent laminectomy/discectomy (n=118) or fusion (n=86) of the lumbar spine. The outcome measures used in the study were visual analog pain scales, the Oswestry Disability Questionnaire, and medication use. A semi-structured interview and psychometric testing were used to identify specific, quantifiable psychological, and "medical" risk factors for poor surgical outcome. A presurgical psychological screening (PPS) scorecard was completed for each patient, assessing whether the patient had a high or low level of risk on these psychological and medical dimensions. Based on the scorecard, an overall surgical prognosis of "good," "fair," or "poor" was generated. Results showed spine surgery led to significant overall improvements in pain, functional ability, and medication use. Medical and psychological risk levels were significantly related to outcome, with the poorest results obtained by patients having both high psychological and medical risk. Further, the accuracy of PPS surgical prognosis in predicting overall outcome was 82%. Only 9 of 53 patients predicted to have poor outcome achieved fair or good results from spine surgery. These findings suggest that PPS should become a more routine part of the evaluation of chronic pain patients in whom spine surgery is being considered.

Ventricular shunt tap as a predictor of proximal shunt malfunction in children: a prospective study.

PubMed

Rocque, Brandon G; Lapsiwala, Samir; Iskandar, Bermans J

2008-06-01

The clinical diagnosis of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) shunt malfunction can be challenging. In this prospective study, the authors evaluated a common method of interrogating shunts: the shunt tap; specifically, its ability to predict proximal malfunction. The authors performed standardized shunt taps in a consecutive series of cases involving children with suspected or proven shunt malfunction, assessing flow and, when possible, opening pressure. Data were collected prospectively, and results analyzed in light of surgical findings. A shunt tap was performed prior to 68 operative explorations in 51 patients. Of the 68 taps, 28 yielded poor or no CSF flow on aspiration. After 26 of these 28 procedures, proximal catheter obstruction was identified. After 28 taps with good CSF return and normal or low opening pressure, 18 shunts were found to have a proximal obstruction, 8 had no obstruction, and 2 had a distal obstruction. Another 12 taps with good CSF flow had high opening pressure; subsequent surgery showed distal obstruction in 11 of the shunts, and proximal obstruction in 1. The positive predictive value of poor flow was 93%, while good flow on shunt tap predicted adequate proximal catheter function in only 55% of cases. Poor flow of CSF on shunt tap is highly predictive of obstruction of the proximal catheter. Because not all patients with good flow on shunt tap underwent surgical shunt exploration, the specificity of this test cannot be determined. Nonetheless, a shunt tap that reveals good flow with a normal opening pressure can be misleading, and management of such cases should be based on clinical judgment.

Functional outcomes of child and adolescent oppositional defiant disorder symptoms in young adult men.

PubMed

Burke, Jeffrey D; Rowe, Richard; Boylan, Khrista

2014-03-01

Oppositional defiant disorder(ODD) is considered to be a disorder of childhood, yet evidence suggests that prevalence rates of the disorder are stable into late adolescence and trajectories of symptoms persist into young adulthood. Functional outcomes associated with ODD through childhood and adolescence include conflict within families, poor peer relationships, peer rejection, and academic difficulties. Little examination of functional outcomes in adulthood associated with ODD has been undertaken. Data for the present analyses come from a clinic referred sample of 177 boys aged 7-12 followed up annually to age 18 and again at age 24. Annual parental report of psychopathology through adolescence was used to predict self-reported functional outcomes at 24. Controlling for parent reported symptoms of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), Conduct disorder (CD), depression and anxiety, ODD symptoms from childhood through adolescence predicted poorer age 24 functioning with peers, poorer romantic relationships, a poorer paternal relationship, and having nobody who would provide a recommendation for a job. CD symptoms predicted workplace problems, poor maternal relationship, lower academic attainment, and violent injuries. Only parent reported ODD symptoms and child reported CD symptoms predicted a composite of poor adult outcomes. Oppositional defiant disorder is a disorder that significantly interferes with functioning, particularly in social or interpersonal relationships. The persistence of impairment associated with ODD into young adulthood calls for a reconsideration of ODD as a disorder limited to childhood. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2013 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Do Maternal Concerns at Delivery Predict Parenting Stress during Infancy?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Combs-Orme, Terri; Cain, Daphne S.; Wilson, Elizabeth E.

2004-01-01

Objective: In a previous study, we found that new mothers could and would express concerns about their parenting, including concerns about maltreatment and poor care. In this study, we examine the utility of early maternal concerns for predicting parenting stress in the first year. Parenting stress is important because it has been shown to be…

Generation of Interpersonal Stressful Events: The Role of Poor Social Skills and Early Physical Maturation in Young Adolescents--The TRAILS Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bakker, Martin P.; Ormel, Johan; Lindenberg, Siegwart; Verhulst, Frank C.; Oldehinkel, Albertine J.

2011-01-01

This study developed two specifications of the social skills deficit stress generation hypothesis: the "gender-incongruence" hypothesis to predict peer victimization and the "need for autonomy" hypothesis to predict conflict with authorities. These hypotheses were tested in a prospective large population cohort of 2,064 Dutch…

The Factors Predicting Stress, Anxiety and Depression in the Parents of Children with Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Falk, Nicholas Henry; Norris, Kimberley; Quinn, Michael G.

2014-01-01

The factors predicting stress, anxiety and depression in the parents of children with autism remain poorly understood. In this study, a cohort of 250 mothers and 229 fathers of one or more children with autism completed a questionnaire assessing reported parental mental health problems, locus of control, social support, perceived parent-child…

External validation of the international risk prediction algorithm for major depressive episode in the US general population: the PredictD-US study.

PubMed

Nigatu, Yeshambel T; Liu, Yan; Wang, JianLi

2016-07-22

Multivariable risk prediction algorithms are useful for making clinical decisions and for health planning. While prediction algorithms for new onset of major depression in the primary care attendees in Europe and elsewhere have been developed, the performance of these algorithms in different populations is not known. The objective of this study was to validate the PredictD algorithm for new onset of major depressive episode (MDE) in the US general population. Longitudinal study design was conducted with approximate 3-year follow-up data from a nationally representative sample of the US general population. A total of 29,621 individuals who participated in Wave 1 and 2 of the US National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC) and who did not have an MDE in the past year at Wave 1 were included. The PredictD algorithm was directly applied to the selected participants. MDE was assessed by the Alcohol Use Disorder and Associated Disabilities Interview Schedule, based on the DSM-IV criteria. Among the participants, 8 % developed an MDE over three years. The PredictD algorithm had acceptable discriminative power (C-statistics = 0.708, 95 % CI: 0.696, 0.720), but poor calibration (p < 0.001) with the NESARC data. In the European primary care attendees, the algorithm had a C-statistics of 0.790 (95 % CI: 0.767, 0.813) with a perfect calibration. The PredictD algorithm has acceptable discrimination, but the calibration capacity was poor in the US general population despite of re-calibration. Therefore, based on the results, at current stage, the use of PredictD in the US general population for predicting individual risk of MDE is not encouraged. More independent validation research is needed.

A different time and place test of ArcHSI: A spatially explicit habitat model for elk in the Black Hills

Treesearch

Mark A. Rumble; Lakhdar Benkobi; R. Scott Gamo

2007-01-01

We tested predictions of the spatially explicit ArcHSI habitat model for elk. The distribution of elk relative to proximity of forage and cover differed from that predicted. Elk used areas near primary roads similar to that predicted by the model, but elk were farther from secondary roads. Elk used areas categorized as good (> 0.7), fair (> 0.42 to 0.7), and poor...

Predictors of poor sportspersonship in youth sports: personal attitudes and social influences.

PubMed

Shields, David Light; LaVoi, Nicole M; Bredemeier, Brenda Light; Power, F Clark

2007-12-01

The present study examined personal and social correlates of poor sportspersonship among youth sport participants. Male and female athletes (n = 676) in the fifth through eighth grades from three geographic regions of the U.S. participated in the study. Young athletes involved in basketball, soccer, football, hockey, baseball/ softball, or lacrosse completed a questionnaire that tapped poor sportspersonship behaviors and attitudes, team sportspersonship norms, perceptions of the poor sportspersonship behaviors of coaches and spectators, and the sportspersonship norms of coaches and parents. Preliminary analyses revealed significant gender, grade, sport area, and location differences in self-reported unsportspersonlike behavior. The main analysis revealed that self-reported poor sport behaviors were best predicted by perceived coach and spectator behaviors, followed by team norms, sportspersonship attitudes, and the perceived norms of parents and coaches. Results are discussed in relation to the concept of moral atmosphere.

Planning Health Services for Seniors: Can We Use Patient's Own Perception?

PubMed

Figueiredo, Sabrina; Rosenzveig, Alicia; Morais, Jose A; Mayo, Nancy E

2017-06-01

The objectives of this study were to identify needs and to estimate whether self-reported health can be used as an indicator of service needs among seniors. This was a cross-sectional survey. Age- and sex-adjusted logistic regression was used to estimate the link between functional status indicators and fair or poor self-reported health. Forward stepwise logistic regression was performed to identify the strongest contributors of poor health. Positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, and specificity were calculated to identify whether health perception could be used to identify people in need of physical rehabilitation services. 142 seniors agreed to answer the survey, yielding a response rate of 73%. Among the respondents (mean age 79±7; 60% women), 40% rated their health as fair or poor. Seniors perceiving their health as fair or poor had higher odds of reporting impairments, activity limitations, and participation restrictions (OR ranging from 2.37 95%CI: 1.03-5-45 to 12.22 95%CI: 2.68-55.78) in comparison to those perceiving their health as good or better. The strongest contributors for poor/fair health were depression, difficulty performing household tasks, pain, and dizziness (c-statistic = 0.91 and a maximum adjusted r -squared of 0.60). Self-rated health used as single-item showed a positive predictive value (PPV) of 1, sensitivity of 52%, and specificity of 100%. Our results indicate that all seniors participating in this study and reporting fair or poor health have indicators of need for further rehabilitation services. Asking patients to rate their own health may be an alternate way of querying about need, as many older persons are afraid to report disability because of fear of further institutionalization.

Role of neurotransmitter Substance P in progression of oral squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Mehboob, Riffat; Tanvir, Imrana; Warraich, Riaz Ahmad; Perveen, Shahida; Yasmeen, Sehrish; Ahmad, Fridoon Jawad

2015-03-01

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) is the most frequent type of head and neck cancers. In the present study, we evaluated the expression and distribution of Substance P (SP) in different grades of OSCC and role of SP in its proliferation and progression. Forty OSCC biopsies were immunohistochemically analyzed by using SP antibody, including 29 male and 11 female cases. 35% were well differentiated, 35% moderately differentiated and 30% poorly differentiated OSCC. The majority of patients were in the age range of 41-80 years. 62% of the cases were positive for SP. SP positivity was expressed in the cytoplasm of the tumor cells. Most of the positive cases were from the tongue region. 93% of moderately differentiated, 92% of poorly differentiated and 8% of well-differentiated carcinomas were SP-positive, but SP expression intensity was highest in poorly differentiated cases (+3). More positive patients were males (68.96% of all male patients) with moderately and poorly differentiated OSCC. Among all positive cases, 48% were poorly differentiated, 48% moderately differentiated and 4% well differentiated. Strong expression of SP in poorly and moderately differentiated cases suggests a role of SP in the progression and development of tumor. Expression of SP in the current study increased as the proliferation of cells increased. Prevalence of oral cancer in males may be due to the fact that they smoke and use pan, chewing gum, beetle nut etc. in this region. SP antagonists can help in the reduction and inhibition of oral cancer. SP has a diagnostic value with sensitivity of 92.5% and specificity of 93.7%. The positive predictive value is 96.2% and the negative predictive value 88.2%. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Poor recovery from a pulmonary exacerbation does not lead to accelerated FEV1 decline.

PubMed

Sanders, Don B; Li, Zhanhai; Zhao, Qianqian; Farrell, Philip M

2017-07-29

Patients with CF treated for pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) may experience faster subsequent declines in FEV 1 . Additionally, incomplete recovery to baseline FEV 1 occurs frequently following PEx treatment. Whether accelerated declines in FEV 1 are preceded by poor PEx recovery has not been studied. Using 2004 to 2011 CF Foundation Patient Registry data, we randomly selected one PEx among patients ≥6years of age with no organ transplantations, ≥12months of data before and after the PEx, and ≥1 FEV 1 recorded within the 6months before and 3months after the PEx. We defined poor PEx recovery as the best FEV 1 in the 3months after the PEx <90% of the best FEV 1 in the 6months before the PEx. We calculated mean (95% CI) hazard ratios (HR) of having >5% predicted/year FEV 1 decline and poor PEx recovery using multi-state Markov models. From 13,954 PEx, FEV 1 declines of >5% predicted/year were more likely to precede poor spirometric recovery, HR 1.17 (1.08, 1.26), in Markov models adjusted for age and sex. Non-Responders were less likely to have a subsequent fast FEV 1 decline, HR 0.41 (0.37, 0.46), than patients who recovered to >90% of baseline FEV 1 following PEx treatment. Accelerated declines in FEV 1 are more likely to precede a PEx with poor recovery than to occur in the following year. Preventing or halting declines in FEV 1 may also have the benefit of preventing PEx episodes. Copyright © 2017 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years do not predict motor skills at 4.5 years.

PubMed

Burakevych, Nataliia; Mckinlay, Christopher Joel Dorman; Alsweiler, Jane Marie; Wouldes, Trecia Ann; Harding, Jane Elizabeth

2017-02-01

To determine whether Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (3rd edition) (Bayley-III) motor scores and neurological examination at 2 years corrected age predict motor difficulties at 4.5 years corrected age. A prospective cohort study of children born at risk of neonatal hypoglycaemia in Waikato Hospital, Hamilton, New Zealand. Assessment at 2 years was performed using the Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination, and at 4.5 years using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (2nd edition) (MABC-2). Of 333 children, 8 (2%) had Bayley-III motor scores below 85, and 50 (15%) had minor deficits on neurological assessment at 2 years; 89 (27%) scored less than or equal to the 15th centile, and 54 (16%) less than or equal to the 5th centile on MABC-2 at 4.5 years. Motor score, fine and gross motor subtest scores, and neurological assessments at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years, explaining 0 to 7% of variance in MABC-2 scores. A Bayley-III motor score below 85 predicted MABC-2 scores less than or equal to the 15th centile with a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 74% (7% sensitivity and 94% specificity). Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years. © 2016 Mac Keith Press.

Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years do not predict motor skills at 4.5 years

PubMed Central

Burakevych, Nataliia; Mckinlay, Christopher Joel Dorman; Alsweiler, Jane Marie; Wouldes, Trecia An; Harding, Jane Elizabeth

2016-01-01

Aim To determine whether Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development (3rd edition) (Bayley-III) motor scores and neurological examination at 2 years' corrected age predict motor difficulties at 4.5 years' corrected age. Method A prospective cohort study of children born at risk of neonatal hypoglycaemia in Waikato Hospital, Hamilton, New Zealand. Assessment at 2 years was performed using the Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination, and at 4.5 years using the Movement Assessment Battery for Children (2nd edition) (MABC-2). Results Of 333 children, 8 (2%) had Bayley-III motor scores below 85, and 50 (15%) had minor deficits on neurological assessment at 2 years; 89 (27%) scored less than or equal to the 15th centile, and 54 (16%) less than or equal to the 5th centile on MABC-2 at 4.5 years. Motor score, fine and gross motor subtest scores, and neurological assessments at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years, explaining 0 to 7% of variance in MABC-2 scores. A Bayley-III motor score below 85 predicted MABC-2 scores less than or equal to the 15th centile with a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 74% (7% sensitivity and 94% specificity). Interpretation Bayley-III motor scale and neurological examination at 2 years were poorly predictive of motor difficulties at 4.5 years. PMID:27543144

Predicting survival of de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asian women: systematic review and validation study.

PubMed

Miao, Hui; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Lee, Soo-Chin; Taib, Nur Aishah; Tan, Ern-Yu; Chan, Patrick; Moons, Karel G M; Wong, Hoong-Seam; Goh, Jeremy; Rahim, Siti Mastura; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M

2014-01-01

In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic). We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s) and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48-0.53) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60-0.66). The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopic determination of a neuronal and axonal marker in white matter predicts reversibility of deficits in secondary normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Shiino, A; Nishida, Y; Yasuda, H; Suzuki, M; Matsuda, M; Inubushi, T

2004-01-01

Background: Normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) is considered to be a treatable form of dementia, because cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) shunting can lessen symptoms. However, neuroimaging has failed to predict when shunting will be effective. Objective: To investigate whether 1H (proton) magnetic resonance (MR) spectroscopy could predict functional outcome in patients after shunting. Methods: Neurological state including Hasegawa's dementia scale, gait, continence, and the modified Rankin scale were evaluated in 21 patients with secondary NPH who underwent ventriculo-peritoneal shunting. Outcomes were measured postoperatively at one and 12 months and were classified as excellent, fair, or poor. MR spectra were obtained from left hemispheric white matter. Results: Significant preoperative differences in N-acetyl aspartate (NAA)/creatine (Cr) and NAA/choline (Cho) were noted between patients with excellent and poor outcome at one month (p = 0.0014 and 0.0036, respectively). Multiple regression analysis linked higher preoperative NAA/Cr ratio, gait score, and modified Rankin scale to better one month outcome. Predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity for excellent outcome following shunting were 95.2%, 100%, and 87.5%. Multiple regression analysis indicated that NAA/Cho had the best predictive value for one year outcome (p = 0.0032); predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity were 89.5%, 90.0%, and 88.9%. Conclusions: MR spectroscopy predicted long term post-shunting outcomes in patients with secondary NPH, and it would be a useful assessment tool before lumbar drainage. PMID:15258216

The correlation between Salter's criteria for avascular necrosis of the femoral head and Kalamchi's prognostic classification following the treatment of developmental dysplasia of the hip.

PubMed

Tsukagoshi, Y; Kamegaya, M; Kamada, H; Saisu, T; Morita, M; Kakizaki, J; Tomaru, Y; Yamazaki, M

2017-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between Salter's criteria and Kalamchi's classification of avascular necrosis in patients treated for developmental dysphasia of the hip (DDH). The study involved a retrospective analysis of 123 patients (123 hips) with DDH treated by operative and non-operative reduction before the age of two years, with a minimum follow-up of ten years. Salter's criteria (S1 to S4) were determined from radiographs obtained at one to two years post-reduction, whilst the Kalamchi grade was determined from radiographs obtained at ten or more years of age. Early post-reduction radiographs were also used to evaluate the centre-head distance discrepancy (CHDD) and the occurrence of a dome-shaped deformity of the proximal femoral metaphysis (D-shaped metaphysis). The prognosis was described as good (Kalamchi grade K0 or KI), fair (Kalamchi grade KII) or poor (Kalamchi grade KIII or KIV) for analysis and correlation with the early Salter criteria, CHDD and D-shaped metaphysis. S1 and S2 criteria were predictive of a poor prognosis. The outcome following S3, S4 and S3 + S4 varied; 18 (40%) had a good prognosis, 17 (38%) a fair prognosis and ten (22%) a poor prognosis. A CHDD ≥ 10% and a D-shaped metaphysis were also predictive of a poor prognosis. The Salter criteria were predictive of the Kalamchi grade of avascular necrosis in patients with DDH aged ten or more years after reduction of the hip. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2017;99-B:1115-20. ©2017 The British Editorial Society of Bone & Joint Surgery.

Appetite predicts mortality in free-living older adults in association with dietary diversity. A NAHSIT cohort study.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Chen; Wahlqvist, Mark L; Lee, Meei-Shyuan

2014-12-01

This study aimed to assess the predictive ability of appetite for mortality among representative free-living Taiwanese older adults. A total of 1856 participants aged 65 years or over from the Elderly Nutrition and Health Survey during 1999-2000 completed an appetite question in a larger questionnaire. Personal information was obtained by face-to-face interview at baseline, together with a 24-hour dietary recall and simplified food frequency questionnaire which provided a dietary diversity score and food intake frequency. Survivorship was ascertained from the Death Registry until December 31, 2008. Participants with a poor appetite had lower dietary diversity scores (DDS) and intake frequencies of meat, fish and sea food, egg, vegetable and fruit intake, along with lower energy, protein, vitamin B-1, niacin, iron and phosphate intakes. Those who had fair and poor appetites had a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to those with good appetite, with hazard ratios (HR) (95% confidence interval, CI) of 1.28 (1.03-1.58) and 2.27 (1.71-3.02), respectively. After adjustment for confounders, the HRs (95% CI) were 1.05 (0.83-1.33) and 1.50 (1.03-2.18), respectively. With further adjustment for DDS or general health these HRs became non-significant. The joint HR (95% CI) for "DDS ≤ 4 and poor appetite" was 1.77 (1.04-3.00) compared to "DDS > 4 and good appetite" as referent. Poor appetite is associated with lower food and nutrient intakes and an independent risk for mortality in older Taiwanese. In conclusion, appetite is separate, mediated by general health and modulated by dietary quality in its predictive capacity for mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neuromuscular Impairments Contributing to Persistently Poor and Declining Lower-Extremity Mobility Among Older Adults: New Findings Informing Geriatric Rehabilitation.

PubMed

Ward, Rachel E; Beauchamp, Marla K; Latham, Nancy K; Leveille, Suzanne G; Percac-Lima, Sanja; Kurlinski, Laura; Ni, Pengsheng; Goldstein, Richard; Jette, Alan M; Bean, Jonathan F

2016-08-01

To identify neuromuscular impairments most predictive of unfavorable mobility outcomes in late life. Longitudinal cohort study. Research clinic. Community-dwelling primary care patients aged ≥65 years (N=391) with self-reported mobility modifications, randomly selected from a research registry. Not applicable. Categories of decline in and persistently poor mobility across baseline, 1 and 2 years of follow-up in the Lower-Extremity Function scales of the Late-Life Function and Disability Instrument. The following categories of impairment were assessed as potential predictors of mobility change: strength (leg strength), speed of movement (leg velocity, reaction time, rapid leg coordination), range of motion (ROM) (knee flexion/knee extension/ankle ROM), asymmetry (asymmetry of leg strength and knee flexion/extension ROM measures), and trunk stability (trunk extensor endurance, kyphosis). The largest effect sizes were found for baseline weaker leg strength (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 3.45 [1.72-6.95]), trunk extensor endurance (2.98 [1.56-5.70]), and slower leg velocity (2.35 [1.21-4.58]) predicting a greater likelihood of persistently poor function over 2 years. Baseline weaker leg strength, trunk extensor endurance, and restricted knee flexion motion also predicted a greater likelihood of decline in function (1.72 [1.10-2.70], 1.83 [1.13-2.95], and 2.03 [1.24-3.35], respectively). Older adults exhibiting poor mobility may be prime candidates for rehabilitation focused on improving these impairments. These findings lay the groundwork for developing interventions aimed at optimizing rehabilitative care and disability prevention, and highlight the importance of both well-recognized (leg strength) and novel impairments (leg velocity, trunk extensor muscle endurance). Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Association Between Self-Assessed Future Work Ability and Long-Term Sickness Absence, Disability Pension and Unemployment in a General Working Population: A 7-Year Follow-Up Study.

PubMed

Lundin, A; Kjellberg, K; Leijon, O; Punnett, L; Hemmingsson, T

2016-06-01

Purpose Work ability is commonly measured with self-assessments, in the form of indices or single items. The validity of these assessments lies in their predictive ability. Prospective studies have reported associations between work ability and sickness absence and disability pension, but few examined why these associations exist. Several correlates of work ability have been reported, but their mechanistic role is largely unknown. This study aims to investigate to what extent individual's own prognosis of work ability predicts labor market participation and whether this was due to individual characteristics and/or working conditions. Methods Self-assessed prognosis of work ability, 2 years from "now," in the Stockholm Public Health Questionnaire (2002-2003) was linked to national registers on sickness absence, disability pension and unemployment up to year 2010. Effects were studied with Cox regression models. Results Of a total of 12,064 individuals 1466 reported poor work ability. There were 299 cases of disability pension, 1466 long-term sickness absence cases and 765 long-term unemployed during follow-up. Poor work ability increased the risk of long-term sickness absence (HR 2.25, CI 95 % 1.97-2.56), disability pension (HR 5.19, CI 95 % 4.07-6.62), and long-term unemployment (HR 2.18, CI 95 % 1.83-2.60). These associations were partially explained by baseline health conditions, physical and (less strongly) psychosocial aspects of working conditions. Conclusions Self-assessed poor ability predicted future long-term sickness absence, disability pension and long-term unemployment. Self-assessed poor work ability seems to be an indicator of future labor market exclusion of different kinds, and can be used in public health monitoring.

The predictive value of self-rated health in the presence of subjective memory complaints on permanent nursing home placement in elderly primary care patients over 4-year follow-up.

PubMed

Nielsen, Anni B S; Siersma, Volkert; Waldemar, Gunhild; Waldorff, Frans B

2014-01-01

self-rated health (SRH) predicts nursing home (NH) placement; subjective memory complaints (SMC) too. However, the predictive value of SRH in the presence of SMC is unclear. seven-hundred fifty-seven non-nursing home residents ≥65 years from general practices in Central Copenhagen were followed for 4 years (2002-2006). Patients gave information on SRH, cognition (SMC and MMSE), quality of life (EQ-5D) and socio-demographics. Information on comorbidities and permanent NH placement came from registries. The association between SRH (dichotomised into good versus poor) and SMC, and permanent NH placement was assessed using Cox proportional hazard regression adjusted for potential confounders. NH placement totaled 6.5% at 4-year follow-up. Poor SRH increased NH placement [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.11-3.87] adjusted for age, SMC, MMSE, sex and comorbidities. SRH was not associated with NH placement if accounting for additional health information; however, SMC was (HR = 2.47, 95% CI: 1.26-4.86). Increased placement was seen for patients with good SRH and SMC (HR = 6.64, 95% CI: 2.31-19.12), but not among patients with poor SRH and SMC (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 0.59-3.20) when compared with the reference group (good SRH and without SMC). both poor SRH and SMC were associated with permanent NH placement risk among elderly primary care patients. However, when SMC was present a reverse association was found for SRH: good SRH increased NH placement. Since SRH is integrated in widely used psychometric instruments, further research is needed to establish the mechanism and implications of this finding.

Predictive value of EEG in postanoxic encephalopathy: A quantitative model-based approach.

PubMed

Efthymiou, Evdokia; Renzel, Roland; Baumann, Christian R; Poryazova, Rositsa; Imbach, Lukas L

2017-10-01

The majority of comatose patients after cardiac arrest do not regain consciousness due to severe postanoxic encephalopathy. Early and accurate outcome prediction is therefore essential in determining further therapeutic interventions. The electroencephalogram is a standardized and commonly available tool used to estimate prognosis in postanoxic patients. The identification of pathological EEG patterns with poor prognosis relies however primarily on visual EEG scoring by experts. We introduced a model-based approach of EEG analysis (state space model) that allows for an objective and quantitative description of spectral EEG variability. We retrospectively analyzed standard EEG recordings in 83 comatose patients after cardiac arrest between 2005 and 2013 in the intensive care unit of the University Hospital Zürich. Neurological outcome was assessed one month after cardiac arrest using the Cerebral Performance Category. For a dynamic and quantitative EEG analysis, we implemented a model-based approach (state space analysis) to quantify EEG background variability independent from visual scoring of EEG epochs. Spectral variability was compared between groups and correlated with clinical outcome parameters and visual EEG patterns. Quantitative assessment of spectral EEG variability (state space velocity) revealed significant differences between patients with poor and good outcome after cardiac arrest: Lower mean velocity in temporal electrodes (T4 and T5) was significantly associated with poor prognostic outcome (p<0.005) and correlated with independently identified visual EEG patterns such as generalized periodic discharges (p<0.02). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis confirmed the predictive value of lower state space velocity for poor clinical outcome after cardiac arrest (AUC 80.8, 70% sensitivity, 15% false positive rate). Model-based quantitative EEG analysis (state space analysis) provides a novel, complementary marker for prognosis in postanoxic encephalopathy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variability of breathing during wakefulness while using CPAP predicts adherence.

PubMed

Fujita, Yukio; Yamauchi, Motoo; Uyama, Hiroki; Kumamoto, Makiko; Koyama, Noriko; Yoshikawa, Masanori; Strohl, Kingman P; Kimura, Hiroshi

2017-02-01

The standard therapy for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) is continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy. However, long-term adherence remains at ~50% despite improvements in behavioural and educational interventions. Based on prior work, we explored whether regularity of breathing during wakefulness might be a physiologic predictor of CPAP adherence. Of the 117 consecutive patients who were diagnosed with OSA and prescribed CPAP, 79 CPAP naïve patients were enrolled in this prospective study. During CPAP initiation, respiratory signals were collected using respiratory inductance plethysmography while wearing CPAP during wakefulness in a seated position. Breathing regularity was assessed by the coefficient of variation (CV) for breath-by-breath estimated tidal volume (V T ) and total duration of respiratory cycle (Ttot). In a derivation group (n = 36), we determined the cut-off CV value which predicted poor CPAP adherence at the first month of therapy, and verified the validity of this predetermined cut-off value in the remaining participants (validation group; n = 43). In the derivation group, the CV for estimated V T was significantly higher in patients with poor adherence than with good adherence (median (interquartile range): 44.2 (33.4-57.4) vs 26.0 (20.4-33.2), P < 0.001). The CV cut-off value for estimated V T for poor CPAP adherence was 34.0, according to a receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. In the validation group, the CV value for estimated V T >34.0 confirmed to be predicting poor CPAP adherence (sensitivity, 0.78; specificity, 0.83). At the initiation of therapy, breathing regularity during wakefulness while wearing CPAP is an objective predictor of short-term CPAP adherence. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Using a count of neonatal morbidities to predict poor outcome in extremely low birth weight infants: added role of neonatal infection.

PubMed

Bassler, Dirk; Stoll, Barbara J; Schmidt, Barbara; Asztalos, Elizabeth V; Roberts, Robin S; Robertson, Charlene M T; Sauve, Reg S

2009-01-01

A count of 3 neonatal morbidities (bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injury, and severe retinopathy of prematurity) strongly predict the risk of death or neurosensory impairment in extremely low birth weight infants who survive to 36 weeks' postmenstrual age. Neonatal infection has also been linked with later impairment. We examined whether the addition of infection to the count of 3 neonatal morbidities further improves the prediction of poor outcome. We studied 944 infants who participated in the Trial of Indomethacin Prophylaxis in Preterms and survived to 36 weeks' postmenstrual age. Culture-proven sepsis, meningitis, and stage II or III necrotizing enterocolitis were recorded prospectively. We investigated the incremental prognostic importance of neonatal infection by adding terms for the different types of infection to a logistic model that already contained terms for the count of bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injury, and severe retinopathy. Poor outcome at 18 months of age was death or survival with 1 or more of the following: cerebral palsy, cognitive delay, severe hearing loss, and bilateral blindness. There were 414 (44%) infants with at least 1 episode of infection or necrotizing enterocolitis. Meningitis and the presence of any type of infection added independent prognostic information to the morbidity-count model. The odds ratio associated with infection or necrotizing enterocolitis in this model was 50% smaller than the odds ratio associated with each count of the other 3 neonatal morbidities. Meningitis was rare and occurred in 22 (2.3%) of 944 infants. In this cohort of extremely low birth weight infants who survived to 36 weeks' postmenstrual age, neonatal infection increased the risk of a late death or survival with neurosensory impairment. However, infection was a weaker predictor of poor outcome than bronchopulmonary dysplasia, brain injury, and severe retinopathy.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE PAGES

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby; ...

2016-12-05

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Simple criteria to predict margin involvement after chemoradiotherapy and sphincter-sparing for low rectal cancer.

PubMed

Dumont, F; Tilly, C; Dartigues, P; Goéré, D; Honoré, C; Elias, D

2015-09-01

Low rectal cancers carry a high risk of circumferential margin involvement (CRM+). The anatomy of the lower part of the rectum and a long course of chemoradiotherapy (CRT) limit the accuracy of imaging to predict the CRM+. Additional criteria are required. Eighty six patients undergoing rectal resection with a sphincter-sparing procedure after CRT for low rectal cancer between 2000 and 2013 were retrospectively reviewed. Risk factors of CRM+ and the cut-off number of risk factors required to accurately predict the CRM+ were analyzed. The CRM+ rate was 9.3% and in the multivariate analysis, the significant risk factors were a tumor size exceeding 3 cm, poor response to CRT and a fixed tumor. The best cut-off to predict CRM+ was the presence of 2 risk factors. Patients with 0-1 and 2-3 risk factors had a CRM+ respectively in 1.3% and 50% of cases and a 3-year recurrence rate of 7% and 35% after a median follow-up of 50 months. Poor response, a residual tumor greater than 3 cm and a fixed tumor are predictive of CRM+. Sphincter sparing is an oncological safety procedure for patients with 0-1 criteria but not for patients with 2-3 criteria. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Flow Characteristics in Three-Dimensional Power Doppler Ultrasound Imaging to Predict Complete Responses in Patients Undergoing Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

PubMed

Shia, Wei-Chung; Huang, Yu-Len; Wu, Hwa-Koon; Chen, Dar-Ren

2017-05-01

Strategies are needed for the identification of a poor response to treatment and determination of appropriate chemotherapy strategies for patients in the early stages of neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. We hypothesize that power Doppler ultrasound imaging can provide useful information on predicting response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The solid directional flow of vessels in breast tumors was used as a marker of pathologic complete responses (pCR) in patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Thirty-one breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy and had tumors of 2 to 5 cm were recruited. Three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasound with high-definition flow imaging technology was used to acquire the indices of tumor blood flow/volume, and the chemotherapy response prediction was established, followed by support vector machine classification. The accuracy of pCR prediction before the first chemotherapy treatment was 83.87% (area under the ROC curve [AUC] = 0.6957). After the second chemotherapy treatment, the accuracy of was 87.9% (AUC = 0.756). Trend analysis showed that good and poor responders exhibited different trends in vascular flow during chemotherapy. This preliminary study demonstrates the feasibility of using the vascular flow in breast tumors to predict chemotherapeutic efficacy. © 2017 by the American Institute of Ultrasound in Medicine.

Prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients from ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Taraphdar, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Leung, L. Ruby

The prediction skill of tropical synoptic scale transients (SSTR) such as monsoon low and depression during the boreal summer of 2007–2009 are assessed using high resolution ECMWF and NCEP TIGGE forecasts data. By analyzing 246 forecasts for lead times up to 10 days, it is found that the models have good skills in forecasting the planetary scale means but the skills of SSTR remain poor, with the latter showing no skill beyond 2 days for the global tropics and Indian region. Consistent forecast skills among precipitation, velocity potential, and vorticity provide evidence that convection is the primary process responsible formore » precipitation. The poor skills of SSTR can be attributed to the larger random error in the models as they fail to predict the locations and timings of SSTR. Strong correlation between the random error and synoptic precipitation suggests that the former starts to develop from regions of convection. As the NCEP model has larger biases of synoptic scale precipitation, it has a tendency to generate more random error that ultimately reduces the prediction skill of synoptic systems in that model. Finally, the larger biases in NCEP may be attributed to the model moist physics and/or coarser horizontal resolution compared to ECMWF.« less

Healthy, wealthy, and wise: retirement planning predicts employee health improvements.

PubMed

Gubler, Timothy; Pierce, Lamar

2014-09-01

Are poor physical and financial health driven by the same underlying psychological factors? We found that the decision to contribute to a 401(k) retirement plan predicted whether an individual acted to correct poor physical-health indicators revealed during an employer-sponsored health examination. Using this examination as a quasi-exogenous shock to employees' personal-health knowledge, we examined which employees were more likely to improve their health, controlling for differences in initial health, demographics, job type, and income. We found that existing retirement-contribution patterns and future health improvements were highly correlated. Employees who saved for the future by contributing to a 401(k) showed improvements in their abnormal blood-test results and health behaviors approximately 27% more often than noncontributors did. These findings are consistent with an underlying individual time-discounting trait that is both difficult to change and domain interdependent, and that predicts long-term individual behaviors in multiple dimensions. © The Author(s) 2014.

Does objectively assessed sleep at five years predict sleep and psychological functioning at 14 years? - Hmm, yes and no!

PubMed

Brand, Serge; Hatzinger, Martin; Stadler, Christina; Bolten, Margarete; von Wyl, Agnes; Perren, Sonja; von Klitzing, Kai; Stadelmann, Stephanie; Holsboer-Trachsler, Edith

2015-01-01

We tested the hypothesis that objectively assessed sleep at kindergarten level predicts sleep and psychological functioning in adolescence. Thirty-seven adolescents aged 14 years (SD = 1.3), of 67 participants assessed as preschoolers, took part in a follow-up study nine years later. Participants completed a series of questionnaires related to sleep and psychological functioning. Sleep-EEG clusters of poor, normal and good sleepers assessed as children nine years earlier were used as predictors for subjective sleep and psychological functioning in adolescence. At the age of 14, those who were normal and good sleepers rather than poor sleepers at the age of five had more positive psychological functioning on dimensions including mental toughness, peer relationship, self-esteem, and perceived stress, but did not differ in current sleep patterns. Objectively assessed sleep patterns at the age of five are predictive of aspects of psychological functioning during adolescence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How to personalize ovarian stimulation in clinical practice.

PubMed

Sighinolfi, Giovanna; Grisendi, Valentina; La Marca, Antonio

2017-09-01

Controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) in in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles is the starting point from which couple's prognosis depends. Individualization in follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) starting dose and protocol used is based on ovarian response prediction, which depends on ovarian reserve. Anti-Müllerian hormone levels and the antral follicle count are considered the most accurate and reliable markers of ovarian reserve. A literature search was performed for studies that addressed the ability of ovarian reserve markers to predict poor and high ovarian response in assisted reproductive technology cycles. According to the predicted response to ovarian stimulation (poor- normal- or high- response), it is possible to counsel couples before treatment about the prognosis, and also to individualize ovarian stimulation protocols, choosing among GnRH-agonists or antagonists for endogenous FSH suppression, and the FSH starting dose in order to decrease the risk of cycle cancellation and ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. In this review we discuss how to choose the best COS therapy, based on ovarian reserve markers, in order to enhance chances in IVF.

How do dispersal costs and habitat selection influence realized population connectivity?

PubMed

Burgess, Scott C; Treml, Eric A; Marshall, Dustin J

2012-06-01

Despite the importance of dispersal for population connectivity, dispersal is often costly to the individual. A major impediment to understanding connectivity has been a lack of data combining the movement of individuals and their survival to reproduction in the new habitat (realized connectivity). Although mortality often occurs during dispersal (an immediate cost), in many organisms costs are paid after dispersal (deferred costs). It is unclear how such deferred costs influence the mismatch between dispersal and realized connectivity. Through a series of experiments in the field and laboratory, we estimated both direct and indirect deferred costs in a marine bryozoan (Bugula neritina). We then used the empirical data to parameterize a theoretical model in order to formalize predictions about how dispersal costs influence realized connectivity. Individuals were more likely to colonize poor-quality habitat after prolonged dispersal durations. Individuals that colonized poor-quality habitat performed poorly after colonization because of some property of the habitat (an indirect deferred cost) rather than from prolonged dispersal per se (a direct deferred cost). Our theoretical model predicted that indirect deferred costs could result in nonlinear mismatches between spatial patterns of potential and realized connectivity. The deferred costs of dispersal are likely to be crucial for determining how well patterns of dispersal reflect realized connectivity. Ignoring these deferred costs could lead to inaccurate predictions of spatial population dynamics.

The valuable diagnosis of DIC and pre-DIC and prediction of a poor outcome by the evaluation of diagnostic criteria for DIC in patients with hematopoietic injury established by the Japanese Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis.

PubMed

Aota, Takumi; Wada, Hideo; Fujimoto, Naoki; Sugimoto, Kazushi; Yamashita, Yoshiki; Matsumoto, Takeshi; Ohishi, Kohshi; Suzuki, Kei; Imai, Hiroshi; Kawasugi, Kazuo; Madoiwa, Seiji; Asakura, Hidesaku; Katayama, Naoyuki

2016-11-01

We evaluated the modified diagnostic criteria for disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), which was published by the Japanese Society of Thrombosis and Hemostasis (JSTH), in 274 suspected DIC patients with hematopoietic injury. The diagnoses of the patients were as follows: DIC (n=125); pre-DIC (n=42) and non-DIC (n=107). The efficacy of the diagnostic criteria for DIC was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The area under the curve (ARC) and odd's ratio for the global coagulation test (GCT) scores in the diagnosis of "DIC" were high, while those for the diagnosis of "DIC and pre-DIC" were low, suggesting that the addition of antithrombin (AT) and soluble fibrin (SF)/thrombin antithrobin complex (TAT) was required to diagnose "DIC and pre-DIC". Although the addition of the AT and SF/TAT values to the GCT did not increase its ability to predict a poor outcome, the JSTH's modified diagnostic criteria scores were correlated with the odds ratio for death. The JSTH's modified diagnostic criteria for DIC, which included the GCT score, and the AT, and TAT/SF values, were useful for diagnosing DIC and pre-DIC, and predicting a poor outcome. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preoperative predictors of occult nodal disease in cT1N0 oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma: Review of 2623 cases.

PubMed

Zhan, Kevin Y; Morgan, Patrick F; Neskey, David M; Kim, Joanne J; Huang, Andrew T; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Day, Terry A

2018-05-14

Nodal disease predicts survival in oral cavity squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). Currently, no large studies on predictors of occult nodal disease in cT1N0 oral cavity SCC exist. The National Cancer Database (NCDB) review for cT1N0 oral cavity SCC with surgical resection and elective neck dissection (END). The number of patients found with occult nodal disease was 2623 (15.1%). In multivariable regression, female sex and tumor differentiation predict occult nodal disease. Occult nodal disease incidence was 5.9% in well-differentiated tumors, 17.4% in moderately differentiated tumors, and 28.5% in poorly differentiated tumor (P < .001). Women with oral tongue tumors had higher occult nodal disease (19.1%) than men (12%; P = .001). Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for occult nodal disease in women were: aOR 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.59; P = .045; moderately differentiated aOR 3.52; 95% CI 2.47-5.01; P < .001; and poorly differentiated aOR 6.25; 95% CI 4.17-9.38; P < .001. Sex and tumor differentiation significantly predict occult nodal disease. END is recommended for all moderately and poorly differentiated cT1N0 oral cavity SCC, regardless of the depth of invasion. One can consider not performing END in well-differentiated tumors. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Perseverative Cognitions and Stress Exposure: Comparing Relationships With Psychological Health Across a Diverse Adult Sample.

PubMed

Zawadzki, Matthew J; Sliwinski, Martin J; Smyth, Joshua M

2018-03-29

Both exposure to stress and perseverative cognitions (PCs)-repetitive cognitive representations of real or imagined stressors-are linked with poor psychological health. Yet, stress exposure and PCs are correlated, thus potentially obscuring any unique effects. The purpose of this paper is to concurrently test associations between stress exposure and PCs and psychological health to examine the independent relationship of each with psychological health. Moreover, we examined whether these relationships are similar across sex, age, and race. An adult community sample (n = 302) completed a measure of stress exposure, three PCs scales, and questionnaires assessing self-reported psychological health, including emotional well-being, vitality, social functioning, role limitations due to personal problems, subjective well-being, depressive symptoms, and poor sleep quality. Structural equation modeling was used to test a model in which both stress exposure and PCs predict psychological health. PCs consistently predicted all the psychological health outcomes, but stress was largely unrelated to the outcomes despite bivariate correlations suggesting a relationship. A follow-up model identified indirect effects of stress exposure on psychological health via PCs. Results were fairly consistent regardless of one's sex, age, or race. PCs robustly predicted all of the psychological health outcomes, intimating PCs as a common pathway to poor psychological health. Results have implications for stress interventions, including the need to address PCs after experiencing stress.

We can predict when driving is no longer safe for people who have HD using standard neuropsychological measures.

PubMed

Hennig, Bonnie L; Kaplan, Richard F; Nowicki, Ariel E; Barclay, Jessy E; Gertsberg, Anna G

2014-01-01

Early cognitive dysfunction in Huntington's Disease (HD) is typically of a subcortical frontal executive type, with bradyphrenia, poor spatial and working memory, poor planning and organization, a lack of judgment, and poor mental flexibility. Although there is literature suggesting a correlation between deficits in speed of processing, working memory and executive function on driving competency, there is little direct evidence comparing these declines on tests to actual driving skills. The current study examines the utility of specific neuropsychological measures in predicting actual driving competency in patients with HD. Fifty-two patients at the UConn Health HD Program underwent yearly neuropsychological evaluations and were included in this study. Four scales were chosen a priori to predict driving impairment because of their reported relationship to driving ability. Within each test category, subjects who scored below the threshold suggestive of neurological impairment were found to have results within the impaired range (1.5 standard deviations below corrective normative data). A referral to the Connecticut Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) for a driving evaluation was subsequently made on patients who were found impaired on any two of these tests. The authors found a strong relationship between scores on a simple battery of four neuropsychological tests and driving competency. This short battery may prove of pragmatic value for clinicians working with people with HD and their families.

Low free triiodothyronine predicts poor functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Suda, Satoshi; Muraga, Kanako; Kanamaru, Takuya; Okubo, Seiji; Abe, Arata; Aoki, Junya; Suzuki, Kentaro; Sakamoto, Yuki; Shimoyama, Takashi; Nito, Chikako; Kimura, Kazumi

2016-09-15

The aim of this study was to investigate the association of admission serum thyroid hormone concentration with clinical characteristics and functional outcomes in patients after acute ischemic stroke. We retrospectively enrolled 398 consecutive patients admitted to our stroke center between July 2010 and April 2012. Serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free triiodothyronine (FT3), and free thyroxine (FT4) were evaluated upon admission. Neurological severity was evaluated using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) upon admission and the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) upon discharge. Poor outcome was defined as a mRS score of 3-5 or death (mRS score 6). Separate analyses were conducted according to outcome and quartile serum FT3 concentration. In total, 164 patients (41.2%) demonstrated a poor outcome. Age, male gender, blood glucose level, arterial fibrillation, dyslipidemia, smoking, NIHSS score, cardioembolic stroke type, and periventricular hyperintensities, but not FT4 or TSH, were significantly associated with poor functional outcome. Furthermore, poor functional outcome was independently associated with low FT3 (<2.29pg/mL). In comparisons between FT3 quartiles (Q1 [≤2.11pg/mL], Q2 [2.12-2.45pg/mL], Q3 [2.46-2.77pg/mL], Q4 [≥2.78pg/mL]), patients with poor outcomes were more frequent in Q1 than in Q4 after multivariate adjustment. Death was more frequent in Q1 than in Q4 after adjustment for risk factors and comorbidities, but this difference was non-significant after additional adjustment for age and NIHSS score. Our data suggest that a lower FT3 value upon admission may predict a poor functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. Further large-scale prospective studies are required to clarify the role of thyroid hormone in the acute phase of ischemic stroke. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of concurrent phrenic nerve palsy in newborn babies with neonatal brachial plexus palsy.

PubMed

Yoshida, Kiyoshi; Kawabata, Hidehiko

2015-06-01

To investigate the prognostic value of concurrent phrenic nerve palsy for predicting spontaneous motor recovery in neonatal brachial plexus palsy. We reviewed the records of 366 neonates with brachial plexus palsy. The clinical and follow-up data of patients with and without phrenic nerve palsy were compared. Of 366 newborn babies with neonatal brachial plexus palsy, 21 (6%) had concurrent phrenic nerve palsy. Sixteen of these neonates had upper-type palsy and 5 had total-type palsy. Poor spontaneous motor recovery was observed in 13 neonates with concurrent phrenic nerve palsy (62%) and in 129 without concurrent phrenic nerve palsy (39%). Among neonates born via vertex delivery, poor motor recovery was observed in 7 of 9 (78%) neonates with concurrent phrenic nerve palsy and 115 of 296 (39%) without concurrent phrenic nerve palsy. Concurrent phrenic nerve palsy in neonates with brachial plexus palsy has prognostic value in predicting poor spontaneous motor recovery of the brachial plexus, particularly after vertex delivery. Therapeutic IV. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Surgery of the Hand. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Targeting the Poor: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Indonesia

PubMed Central

Alatas, Vivi; Banerjee, Abhijit; Hanna, Rema; Olken, Benjamin A.; Tobias, Julia

2014-01-01

This paper reports an experiment in 640 Indonesian villages on three approaches to target the poor: proxy-means tests (PMT), where assets are used to predict consumption; community targeting, where villagers rank everyone from richest to poorest; and a hybrid. Defining poverty based on PPP$2 per-capita consumption, community targeting and the hybrid perform somewhat worse in identifying the poor than PMT, though not by enough to significantly affect poverty outcomes for a typical program. Elite capture does not explain these results. Instead, communities appear to apply a different concept of poverty. Consistent with this finding, community targeting results in higher satisfaction. PMID:25197099

Analytical and experimental vibration studies of a 1/8-scale shuttle orbiter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinson, L. D.

1975-01-01

Natural frequencies and mode shapes for four symmetric vibration modes and four antisymmetric modes are compared with predictions based on NASTRAN finite-element analyses. Initial predictions gave poor agreement with test data; an extensive investigation revealed that the major factors influencing agreement were out-of-plane imperfections in fuselage panels and a soft fin-fuselage connection. Computations with a more refined analysis indicated satisfactory frequency predictions for all modes studied, within 11 percent of experimental values.

Abstracts of Presentations at Workshop on Unsteady and Two-Phase-Flows, Held in London, England on June 28-29, 1990

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-29

has been found to be a modification of the STAN’ program from Crawford and Kays2. An important characteristic of any boundary layer prediction program...function of freestream turbulence intensity, helped in predicting heat transfer rates between the hot gases and the b’arie surface. a Professor...be a modulator of transition to turbulence and the boundary layer prediction programs currently available have a poor performance in such flows

Metamemory Judgments and the Benefits of Repeated Study: Improving Recall Predictions through the Activation of Appropriate Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tiede, Heather L.; Leboe, Jason P.

2009-01-01

Correspondence between judgments of learning (JOLs) and actual recall tends to be poor when the same items are studied and recalled multiple times (e.g., A. Koriat, L. Sheffer, & H. Ma'ayan, 2002). The authors investigated whether making relevant metamemory knowledge more salient would improve the association between actual and predicted recall as…

Individual Differences in Executive Functioning Predict Preschoolers' Improvement from Theory-of-Mind Training

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Benson, Jeannette E.; Sabbagh, Mark A.; Carlson, Stephanie M.; Zelazo, Philip David

2013-01-01

Twenty-four 3.5-year-old children who initially showed poor performance on false-belief tasks participated in a training protocol designed to promote performance on these tasks. Our aim was to determine whether the extent to which children benefited from training was predicted by their performance on a battery of executive functioning tasks.…

Comparing the Factors That Predict Completion and Grades among For-Credit and Open/MOOC Students in Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Almeda, Ma. Victoria; Zuech, Joshua; Utz, Chris; Higgins, Greg; Reynolds, Rob; Baker, Ryan S.

2018-01-01

Online education continues to become an increasingly prominent part of higher education, but many students struggle in distance courses. For this reason, there has been considerable interest in predicting which students will succeed in online courses and which will receive poor grades or drop out prior to completion. Effective intervention depends…

Using Brain Imaging to Extract the Structure of Complex Events at the Rational Time Band

PubMed Central

Anderson, John R.; Qin, Yulin

2017-01-01

A functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study was performed in which participants performed a complex series of mental calculations that spanned about 2 min. An Adaptive Control of Thought—Rational (ACT-R) model [Anderson, J. R. How can the human mind occur in the physical universe? New York: Oxford University Press, 2007] was developed that successfully fit the distribution of latencies. This model generated predictions for the fMRI signal in six brain regions that have been associated with modules in the ACT-R theory. The model’s predictions were confirmed for a fusiform region that reflects the visual module, for a prefrontal region that reflects the retrieval module, and for an anterior cingulate region that reflects the goal module. In addition, the only significant deviations to the motor region that reflects the manual module were anticipatory hand movements. In contrast, the predictions were relatively poor for a parietal region that reflects an imaginal module and for a caudate region that reflects the procedural module. Possible explanations of these poor fits are discussed. In addition, exploratory analyses were performed to find regions that might correspond to the predictions of the modules. PMID:18345979

A prospective investigation of physical health outcomes in abused and neglected children: new findings from a 30-year follow-up.

PubMed

Widom, Cathy Spatz; Czaja, Sally J; Bentley, Tyrone; Johnson, Mark S

2012-06-01

We investigated whether abused and neglected children are at risk for negative physical health outcomes in adulthood. Using a prospective cohort design, we matched children (aged 0-11 years) with documented cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect from a US Midwestern county during 1967 through 1971 with nonmaltreated children. Both groups completed a medical status examination (measured health outcomes and blood tests) and interview during 2003 through 2005 (mean age=41.2 years). After adjusting for age, gender, and race, child maltreatment predicted above normal hemoglobin, lower albumin levels, poor peak airflow, and vision problems in adulthood. Physical abuse predicted malnutrition, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, and hemoglobin A1C. Neglect predicted hemoglobin A1C, albumin, poor peak airflow, and oral health and vision problems, Sexual abuse predicted hepatitis C and oral health problems. Additional controls for childhood socioeconomic status, adult socioeconomic status, unhealthy behaviors, smoking, and mental health problems play varying roles in attenuating or intensifying these relationships. Child abuse and neglect affect long-term health status-increasing risk for diabetes, lung disease, malnutrition, and vision problems-and support the need for early health care prevention.

Learning disabled and average readers' working memory and comprehension: does metacognition play a role?

PubMed

Swanson, H L; Trahan, M

1996-09-01

The present study investigates (a) whether learning disabled readers' working memory deficits that underlie poor reading comprehension are related to a general system, and (b) whether metacognition contributes to comprehension beyond what is predicted by working memory and word knowledge. To this end, performance between learning and disabled (N = 60) and average readers (N = 60) was compared on the reading comprehension, reading rate, and vocabulary subtests of the Nelson Skills Reading Test, Sentence Span test composed of high and low imagery words, and a Metacognitive Questionnaire. As expected, differences between groups in working memory, vocabulary, and reading measures emerged, whereas ability groups were statistically comparable on the Metacognitive Questionnaire. A within-group analysis indicated that the correlation patterns between working memory, vocabulary, metacognition, and reading comprehension were not the same between ability groups. For predicting reading comprehension, the metacognitive questionnaire best predicted learning disabled readers' performance, whereas the working memory span measure that included low-imagery words best predicted average achieving readers' comprehension. Overall, the results suggest that the relationship between learning disabled readers' generalised working memory deficits and poor reading comprehension may be mediated by metacognition.

Using brain imaging to extract the structure of complex events at the rational time band.

PubMed

Anderson, John R; Qin, Yulin

2008-09-01

A functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study was performed in which participants performed a complex series of mental calculations that spanned about 2 min. An Adaptive Control of Thought--Rational (ACT-R) model [Anderson, J. R. How can the human mind occur in the physical universe? New York: Oxford University Press, 2007] was developed that successfully fit the distribution of latencies. This model generated predictions for the fMRI signal in six brain regions that have been associated with modules in the ACT-R theory. The model's predictions were confirmed for a fusiform region that reflects the visual module, for a prefrontal region that reflects the retrieval module, and for an anterior cingulate region that reflects the goal module. In addition, the only significant deviations to the motor region that reflects the manual module were anticipatory hand movements. In contrast, the predictions were relatively poor for a parietal region that reflects an imaginal module and for a caudate region that reflects the procedural module. Possible explanations of these poor fits are discussed. In addition, exploratory analyses were performed to find regions that might correspond to the predictions of the modules.

PatientsLikeMe® Online Epilepsy Community: Patient characteristics and predictors of poor health-related quality of life.

PubMed

de la Loge, Christine; Dimova, Svetlana; Mueller, Knut; Phillips, George; Durgin, Tracy L; Wicks, Paul; Borghs, Simon

2016-10-01

The online PatientsLikeMe® Epilepsy Community allows patients with epilepsy to record, monitor, and share their demographic, disease, and treatment characteristics, providing valuable insights into patient perceptions and understanding of epilepsy. The objective of this retrospective analysis was to characterize the profile of users and their disease and identify factors predictive of poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL), while assessing the platform's potential in providing patient-reported data for research purposes. Data recorded (January 2010-November 2011) by Epilepsy Community members, with an epilepsy diagnosis and who reported >1 seizure, included the following: sociodemographic and disease characteristics, treatments, symptoms, side effects perceived as medication-related, seizure occurrence, and standardized questionnaires (Quality of Life in Epilepsy Inventory [QOLIE-31/P], EuroQoL 5-Dimensions Scale, 3 Levels [EQ-5D-3L], and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale [HADS]). Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were conducted to identify predictors of poor HRQoL. During the study period, the Epilepsy Community comprised 3073 patients, of whom 71.5% were female, had a mean age of 37.8years, and had a mean epilepsy duration of 17.7years. The most frequently reported moderate/severe symptoms (n=2135) included memory problems (60.2%), problems concentrating (53.8%), and fatigue (50.0%). Medication-related side effects (n=639) included somnolence (23.2%), fatigue (17.2%), and memory impairment (13.8%). The QOLIE-31/P scores (n=1121) were significantly worse in patients who experienced a recent seizure. For QOLIE-31/P, highly predictive factors for poor HRQoL included the following: mild/moderate problems concentrating, depression, memory problems, treatment side effects, occurrence of tonic-clonic seizures, and epilepsy duration ≤1year. For EQ-5D-3L, highly predictive factors for poor HRQoL included the following: pain, depression, and comorbidities. Patients on newer AEDs were less likely to report poor HRQoL (QOLIE-31/P). These findings move further towards supporting the feasibility and usefulness of collecting real-world, anonymized data recorded by patients online. The data provide insights into factors impacting HRQoL, suggesting that a holistic treatment approach beyond seizure control should be considered in epilepsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Exploratory Study to Assess Individual and Structural Level Barriers Associated With Poor Retention and Re-engagement in Care Among Persons Living With HIV/AIDS.

PubMed

Colasanti, Jonathan; Stahl, Natalie; Farber, Eugene W; Del Rio, Carlos; Armstrong, Wendy S

2017-02-01

Retention in care is the most challenging step along the HIV care continuum. Many patients who engage in care and achieve viral suppression have care interruptions, characterized by moving in and out of care ("churn"). Poor retention has clinical consequences and contributes to new HIV transmissions, but how to predict or prevent it remains elusive. This study sought to understand the relationship between individual- and structural-level barriers, and poor retention for persons living with HIV/AIDS in Atlanta, GA. We administered a survey, through interviews, with HIV-infected patients continuously retained in care for 6 years ("continuously retained," n = 32) and patients with recent gaps in care ("unretained" n = 27). We assessed individual-level protective factors for successful engagement (self-efficacy, resilience, perceived social support, and disclosure), risk factors for poor engagement (substance use, mental illness, and stigma), and structural/systemic-level barriers (financial and housing instability, transportation, food insecurity, communication barriers, and incarceration history). Chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare the 2 populations. Both continuously retained and unretained populations had high rates of prior viral suppression but few unretained patients were virologically suppressed upon return to care (11%). Younger age, crack cocaine use, food insecurity, financial instability, housing instability, and phone number changes in the past year were significantly more likely to be present in the unretained population. Our findings suggest the need for targeted risk assessment tools to predict the highest-risk patients for poor retention whereby public health interventions can be directed to those individuals.

The Longitudinal Association Between Poor Sleep Quality and Cyberbullying, Mediated by Anger.

PubMed

Erreygers, Sara; Vandebosch, Heidi; Vranjes, Ivana; Baillien, Elfi; De Witte, Hans

2018-01-09

Adolescents tend to go to bed later and sleep less as they grow older, although their need for sleep stays the same throughout adolescence. Poor sleep has negative consequences on personal and interpersonal functioning, including increased aggressive tendencies. With adolescents' social life increasingly including interactions via digital media, these interactions may also become more aggressive when adolescents' sleep problems increase. One of the ways in which online aggression may be enacted is through cyberbullying. Although previous research has examined the role of sleep disruptions in offline bullying, the role of sleep in cyberbullying has not yet been addressed. Therefore, this study examines the longitudinal effect of poor sleep quality on later cyberbullying behavior. Thirteen- to fourteen-year-old adolescents completed self-report measures on sleep quality, anger, cyberbullying perpetration, and frequency of digital media use. Because one of the pathways through which sleep is proposed to be linked to aggression is an affective pathway, namely via angry affect, a mediation model of poor sleep quality predicting cyberbullying via feelings of anger was tested. Results from structural equation modeling and a bootstrap test indicated that poor sleep quality was indeed indirectly associated with later cyberbullying behavior through heightened feelings of anger, even when taking the effects of the use of digital media and previous cyberbullying behavior into account. This finding provides support for the proposed affective pathway linking sleep problems to aggression. As sleep problems and anger seem to play a predicting role in cyberbullying behavior, suggestions for cyberbullying intervention and prevention strategies are formulated.

Using the ovarian sensitivity index to define poor, normal, and high response after controlled ovarian hyperstimulation in the long gonadotropin-releasing hormone-agonist protocol: suggestions for a new principle to solve an old problem.

PubMed

Huber, Malin; Hadziosmanovic, Nermin; Berglund, Lars; Holte, Jan

2013-11-01

To explore the utility of using the ratio between oocyte yield and total dose of FSH, i.e., the ovarian sensitivity index (OSI), to define ovarian response patterns. Retrospective cross-sectional study. University-affiliated private center. The entire unselected cohort of 7,520 IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatments (oocyte pick-ups [OPUs]) during an 8-year period (long GnRH agonist-recombinant FSH protocol). None. The distribution of the OSI (oocytes recovered × 1,000/total dose of FSH), the cutoff levels for poor and high response, set at ±1 SD, and the relationship between OSI and treatment outcome. OSI showed a log-normal distribution with cutoff levels for poor and high response at 1.697/IU and 10.07/IU, respectively. A nomogram is presented. Live-birth rates per OPU were 10.5 ± 0.1%, 26.9 ± 0.6%, and 36.0 ± 1.4% for poor, normal, and high response treatments, respectively. The predictive power (C-statistic) for OSI to predict live birth was superior to that of oocyte yield. The OSI improves the definition of ovarian response patterns because it takes into account the degree of stimulation. The nomogram presents evidence-based cutoff levels for poor, normal, and high response and could be used for unifying study designs involving ovarian response patterns. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Can preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels predict survival and early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma?

PubMed

Wang, Jun-Ke; Hu, Hai-Jie; Shrestha, Anuj; Ma, Wen-Jie; Yang, Qin; Liu, Fei; Cheng, Nan-Sheng; Li, Fu-Yu

2017-07-11

To investigate the predictive values of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on survival and other prognostic factors including early recurrence in patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma. In univariate analysis, increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels in the light of different cut-off points (37, 100, 150, 200, 400, 1000 U/ml) were significantly associated with poor survival outcomes, of which the cut-off point of 150 U/ml showed the strongest predictive value (both P < 0.001). Preoperative to postoperative increase in CA19-9 level was also correlated with poor survival outcome (P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, preoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.471, 95% CI 1.216-9.905; P = 0.020) and early recurrence (OR = 8.280, 95% CI 2.391-28.674; P = 0.001). Meanwhile, postoperative CA19-9 level > 150 U/ml was also correlated with early recurrence (OR = 4.006, 95% CI 1.107-14.459; P = 0.034). Ninety-eight patients who had undergone curative surgery for hilar cholangiocarcinoma between 1995 and 2014 in our institution were selected for the study. The correlations of preoperative and postoperative serum CA19-9 levels on the basis of different cut-off points with survival and various tumor factors were retrospectively analyzed with univariate and multivariate methods. In patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma, serum CA19-9 predict survival and early recurrence. Patients with increased preoperative and postoperative CA19-9 levels have poor survival outcomes and higher tendency of early recurrence.

Autonomic Dysfunction Predicts Clinical Outcomes After Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Prospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Xiong, Li; Tian, Ge; Leung, Howan; Soo, Yannie O Y; Chen, Xiangyan; Ip, Vincent H L; Mok, Vincent C T; Chu, Winnie C W; Wong, Ka Sing; Leung, Thomas W H

2018-01-01

Central autonomic dysfunction increases stroke morbidity and mortality. We aimed to investigate whether poststroke autonomic dysfunction graded by Ewing battery can predict clinical outcome. In this prospective observational study, we assessed autonomic function of ischemic stroke patients within 7 days from symptom onset by Ewing battery. On the basis of the magnitude of autonomic dysfunction, we stratified patients into significant (definite, severe, or atypical) or minor (normal or early) autonomic function impairment groups and correlated the impairment with the 3-month modified Rankin Scale score (good outcome: modified Rankin Scale score 0≈2; poor outcome: modified Rankin Scale score 3≈6). Among the 150 patients enrolled (mean age, 66.4±9.9 years; 70.7% males), minor autonomic dysfunction was identified in 36 patients (24.0%), and significant autonomic dysfunction was identified in 114 patients (76.0%) based on Ewing battery. In 3 months, a poor functional outcome was found in 32.5% of significant group patients compared with 13.9% in the minor group ( P =0.031). Crude odds ratios of the magnitude of autonomic dysfunction and 3-month unfavorable functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke were 2.979 (95% confidence interval, 1.071-8.284; P =0.036). After adjusting for confounding variables with statistical significance between the 2 functional outcome subgroups identified in univariate analysis (including sex and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score on admission), the magnitude of autonomic dysfunction still independently predicted an unfavorable outcome, with an odds ratio of 3.263 (95% confidence interval, 1.141-9.335; P =0.027). Autonomic dysfunction gauged by Ewing battery predicts poor functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Novel biomarkers in primary breast core biopsies to predict poor response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and appearance of metastases.

PubMed

Novell, Anna; Morales, Serafin; Valls, Joan; Panadés, Maria José; Salud, Antonieta; Iglesias, Edelmiro; Vilardell, Felip; Matias-Guiu, Xavier; Llombart-Cussac, Antonio

2017-09-01

Drug resistance has been one of the major obstacles limiting the success of cancer chemotherapy. In two thirds of breast cancer patients, large (>1cm) residual tumors are present after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT). The residual tumor and involved nodes have been indicators of relapse and survival very important in breast cancer. The goal of this preliminary study was to assess the predictive significance of a panel of molecular biomarkers, related with the response to treatment or drug resistance to NCT, as determined on the diagnostic tumor. The expression of 22 proteins was examined using immunohistochemistry in tissue microarrays (TMA) from 115 patients of stage II-III breast cancer, treated with NCT. Among studied proteins, there are some that are anti-apoptotic, pro-proliferative, cancer stem cell markers and the Vitamin D Receptor. Other proteins are involved in the identification of molecular subtype, cell cycle regulation or DNA repair. Next, a predictive signature of poor response was generated from independent markers of predictive value. Tumors that expressed four or five conditions (biomarkers of chemoresistance with a determinated cutoff) were associated with a 9-fold increase in the chances of these patients of having a poor response to NCT. Additionally, we also found a worse prognostic signature, generated from independent markers of prognostic value. Tumors which expressed two or three conditions of worst prognostic, were associated with a 6-fold reduction in Distant Disease Free Survival. In conclusion, finding biomarkers of chemoresitance (ypTNM II-III) and metastases can become a stepping stone for future studies that will need to be assessed in a bigger scale.

Poor Prognosis Indicated by Venous Circulating Tumor Cell Clusters in Early-Stage Lung Cancers.

PubMed

Murlidhar, Vasudha; Reddy, Rishindra M; Fouladdel, Shamileh; Zhao, Lili; Ishikawa, Martin K; Grabauskiene, Svetlana; Zhang, Zhuo; Lin, Jules; Chang, Andrew C; Carrott, Philip; Lynch, William R; Orringer, Mark B; Kumar-Sinha, Chandan; Palanisamy, Nallasivam; Beer, David G; Wicha, Max S; Ramnath, Nithya; Azizi, Ebrahim; Nagrath, Sunitha

2017-09-15

Early detection of metastasis can be aided by circulating tumor cells (CTC), which also show potential to predict early relapse. Because of the limited CTC numbers in peripheral blood in early stages, we investigated CTCs in pulmonary vein blood accessed during surgical resection of tumors. Pulmonary vein (PV) and peripheral vein (Pe) blood specimens from patients with lung cancer were drawn during the perioperative period and assessed for CTC burden using a microfluidic device. From 108 blood samples analyzed from 36 patients, PV had significantly higher number of CTCs compared with preoperative Pe ( P < 0.0001) and intraoperative Pe ( P < 0.001) blood. CTC clusters with large number of CTCs were observed in 50% of patients, with PV often revealing larger clusters. Long-term surveillance indicated that presence of clusters in preoperative Pe blood predicted a trend toward poor prognosis. Gene expression analysis by RT-qPCR revealed enrichment of p53 signaling and extracellular matrix involvement in PV and Pe samples. Ki67 expression was detected in 62.5% of PV samples and 59.2% of Pe samples, with the majority (72.7%) of patients positive for Ki67 expression in PV having single CTCs as opposed to clusters. Gene ontology analysis revealed enrichment of cell migration and immune-related pathways in CTC clusters, suggesting survival advantage of clusters in circulation. Clusters display characteristics of therapeutic resistance, indicating the aggressive nature of these cells. Thus, CTCs isolated from early stages of lung cancer are predictive of poor prognosis and can be interrogated to determine biomarkers predictive of recurrence. Cancer Res; 77(18); 5194-206. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Prediction of different ovarian responses using anti-Müllerian hormone following a long agonist treatment protocol for IVF.

PubMed

Heidar, Z; Bakhtiyari, M; Mirzamoradi, M; Zadehmodarres, S; Sarfjoo, F S; Mansournia, M A

2015-09-01

The purpose of this study was to predict the poor and excessive ovarian response using anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) levels following a long agonist protocol in IVF candidates. Through a prospective cohort study, the type of relationship and appropriate scale for AMH were determined using the fractional polynomial regression. To determine the effect of AMH on the outcomes of ovarian stimulation and different ovarian responses, the multi-nominal and negative binomial regression models were fitted using backward stepwise method. The ovarian response of study subject who entered a standard long-term treatment cycle with GnRH agonist was evaluated using prediction model, separately and in combined models with (ROC) curves. The use of standard long-term treatments with GnRH agonist led to positive pregnancy test results in 30% of treated patients. With each unit increase in the log of AMH, the odds ratio of having poor response compared to normal response decreases by 64% (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.68). Also the results of negative binomial regression model indicated that for one unit increase in the log of AMH blood levels, the odds of releasing an oocyte increased 24% (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.14-1.35). The optimal cut-off points of AMH for predicting excessive and poor ovarian responses were 3.4 and 1.2 ng/ml, respectively, with area under curves of 0.69 (0.60-0.77) and 0.76 (0.66-0.86), respectively. By considering the age of the patient undergoing infertility treatment as a variable affecting ovulation, use of AMH levels showed to be a good test to discriminate between different ovarian responses.

Detecting Human Hydrologic Alteration from Diversion Hydropower Requires Universal Flow Prediction Tools: A Proposed Framework for Flow Prediction in Poorly-gauged, Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kibler, K. M.; Alipour, M.

2016-12-01

Achieving the universal energy access Sustainable Development Goal will require great investment in renewable energy infrastructure in the developing world. Much growth in the renewable sector will come from new hydropower projects, including small and diversion hydropower in remote and mountainous regions. Yet, human impacts to hydrological systems from diversion hydropower are poorly described. Diversion hydropower is often implemented in ungauged rivers, thus detection of impact requires flow analysis tools suited to prediction in poorly-gauged and human-altered catchments. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of hydrologic alteration in 32 rivers developed with diversion hydropower in southwestern China. As flow data are sparse, we devise an approach for estimating streamflow during pre- and post-development periods, drawing upon a decade of research into prediction in ungauged basins. We apply a rainfall-runoff model, parameterized and forced exclusively with global-scale data, in hydrologically-similar gauged and ungauged catchments. Uncertain "soft" data are incorporated through fuzzy numbers and confidence-based weighting, and a multi-criteria objective function is applied to evaluate model performance. Testing indicates that the proposed framework returns superior performance (NSE = 0.77) as compared to models parameterized by rote calibration (NSE = 0.62). Confident that the models are providing `the right answer for the right reasons', our analysis of hydrologic alteration based on simulated flows indicates statistically significant hydrologic effects of diversion hydropower across many rivers. Mean annual flows, 7-day minimum and 7-day maximum flows decreased. Frequency and duration of flow exceeding Q25 decreased while duration of flows sustained below the Q75 increased substantially. Hydrograph rise and fall rates and flow constancy increased. The proposed methodology may be applied to improve diversion hydropower design in data-limited regions.

Clinical Risk Index for Babies score for the prediction of neurodevelopmental outcomes at 3 years of age in infants of very low birthweight.

PubMed

Lodha, Abhay; Sauvé, Reg; Chen, Sophie; Tang, Selphee; Christianson, Heather

2009-11-01

In this study, we evaluated the Clinical Risk Index for Babies - revised (CRIB-II) score as a predictor of long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes in preterm infants at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores, which include birthweight, gestational age, sex, admission temperature, and base excess, were recorded prospectively on all infants weighing 1250g or less admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The sensitivity and specificity of CRIB-II scores to predict poor outcomes were examined using receiver operating characteristic curves, and predictive accuracy was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC), based on the observed values entered on a continuous scale. Poor outcomes were defined as death or major neurodevelopmental disability (cerebral palsy, neurosensory hearing loss requiring amplification, legal blindness, severe seizure disorder, or cognitive score >2SD below the mean for adjusted age determined by clinical neurological examination and on the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Bayley Scales of Infant Development, or revised Leiter International Performance Scale). Of the 180 infants admitted to the NICU, 155 survived. Complete follow-up data were available for 107 children. The male:female ratio was 50:57 (47-53%), median birthweight was 930g (range 511-1250g), and median gestational age was 27 weeks (range 23-32wks). Major neurodevelopmental impairment was observed in 11.2% of participants. In a regression model, the CRIB-II score was significantly correlated with long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes. It predicted major neurodevelopmental impairment (odds ratio [OR] 1.57, bootstrap 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.26-3.01; AUC 0.84) and poor outcome (OR 1.46; bootstrap 95% CI 1.31-1.71, AUC 0.82) at 36 months' corrected age. CRIB-II scores of 13 or more in the first hour of life can reliably predict major neurodevelopmental impairment at 36 months' corrected age (sensitivity 83%; specificity 84%).

Insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders: relationship with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, underlying causes and emerging treatments.

PubMed

Lysaker, Paul H; Pattison, Michelle L; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Phelps, Scott; Vohs, Jenifer L

2018-02-01

Poor insight in schizophrenia is prevalent across cultures and phases of illness. In this review, we examine the recent research on the relationship of insight with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, on its complex roots, and on the effects of existing and emerging treatments. This research indicates that poor insight predicts poorer treatment adherence and therapeutic alliance, higher symptom severity and more impaired community function, while good insight predicts a higher frequency of depression and demoralization, especially when coupled with stigma and social disadvantage. This research also suggests that poor insight may arise in response to biological, experiential, neuropsychological, social-cognitive, metacognitive and socio-political factors. Studies of the effects of existing and developing treatments indicate that they may influence insight. In the context of earlier research and historical models, these findings support an integrative model of poor insight. This model suggests that insight requires the integration of information about changes in internal states, external circumstances, others' perspectives and life trajectory as well as the multifaceted consequences and causes of each of those changes. One implication is that treatments should, beyond providing education, seek to assist persons with schizophrenia to integrate the broad range of complex and potentially deeply painful experiences which are associated with mental illness into their own personally meaningful, coherent and adaptive picture. © 2018 World Psychiatric Association.

Insight in schizophrenia spectrum disorders: relationship with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, underlying causes and emerging treatments

PubMed Central

Lysaker, Paul H.; Pattison, Michelle L.; Leonhardt, Bethany L.; Phelps, Scott; Vohs, Jenifer L.

2018-01-01

Poor insight in schizophrenia is prevalent across cultures and phases of illness. In this review, we examine the recent research on the relationship of insight with behavior, mood and perceived quality of life, on its complex roots, and on the effects of existing and emerging treatments. This research indicates that poor insight predicts poorer treatment adherence and therapeutic alliance, higher symptom severity and more impaired community function, while good insight predicts a higher frequency of depression and demoralization, especially when coupled with stigma and social disadvantage. This research also suggests that poor insight may arise in response to biological, experiential, neuropsychological, social‐cognitive, metacognitive and socio‐political factors. Studies of the effects of existing and developing treatments indicate that they may influence insight. In the context of earlier research and historical models, these findings support an integrative model of poor insight. This model suggests that insight requires the integration of information about changes in internal states, external circumstances, others’ perspectives and life trajectory as well as the multifaceted consequences and causes of each of those changes. One implication is that treatments should, beyond providing education, seek to assist persons with schizophrenia to integrate the broad range of complex and potentially deeply painful experiences which are associated with mental illness into their own personally meaningful, coherent and adaptive picture. PMID:29352540

The association between team climate at work and mental health in the Finnish Health 2000 Study.

PubMed

Sinokki, M; Hinkka, K; Ahola, K; Koskinen, S; Klaukka, T; Kivimäki, M; Puukka, P; Lönnqvist, J; Virtanen, M

2009-08-01

Depression, anxiety and alcohol use disorders are common mental health problems in the working population. However, the team climate at work related to these disorders has not been studied using standardised interview methods and it is not known whether poor team climate predicts antidepressant use. This study investigated whether team climate at work was associated with DSM-IV depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders and subsequent antidepressant medication in a random sample of Finnish employees. The nationally representative sample comprised 3347 employees aged 30-64 years. Team climate was measured with a self-assessment scale. Diagnoses of depressive, anxiety and alcohol use disorders were based on the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Data on the purchase of antidepressant medication in a 3-year follow-up period were collected from a nationwide pharmaceutical register of the Social Insurance Institution. In the risk factor adjusted models, poor team climate at work was significantly associated with depressive disorders (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.36) but not with alcohol use disorders. The significance of the association between team climate and anxiety disorders disappeared when the model was adjusted for job control and job demands. Poor team climate also predicted antidepressant medication (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.30). A poor team climate at work is associated with depressive disorders and subsequent antidepressant use.

Alexithymia partly predicts pain, poor health and social difficulties in patients with temporomandibular disorders.

PubMed

Mingarelli, A; Casagrande, M; Di Pirchio, R; Nizzi, S; Parisi, C; Loy, B C; Solano, L; Rampello, A; Di Paolo, C

2013-10-01

Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) are functional diseases of the masticatory system; their symptoms are clicking, difficulty opening the mouth wide, ear pain, facial pain and headaches. The relationships among distress, emotional factors and TMD are well known. It was shown that patients with TMD have little awareness of their inner states and emotions, and it was found that those reporting oro-facial pain presented higher alexithymia than did asymptomatic people. Other authors confirmed that alexithymia was higher in the painful TMD group than controls. This study was aimed to evaluate whether alexithymia and its components can be considered as predisposing factors for pain severity, poor health and greater social difficulties in patients with TMD. One hundred thirty-three patients received a diagnosis of TMD and completed the 20-item Toronto Alexithymia Scale. Multiple stepwise regressions showed that alexithymia and age explained 10% of the pain and 31% of poor health and also that alexithymia explained 7% of social difficulty. A direct comparison of patients with TMD based on alexithymia revealed a higher presence of pain in alexithymic patients with TMD than in those characterised by moderate or no alexithymia. In conclusion, alexithymia partly predicts pain, poor health and social difficulties in patients with TMD. Furthermore, alexithymic patients have more pain than those with moderate or low alexithymia. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk factors for work-related stress and health in head teachers.

PubMed

Phillips, Samantha J; Sen, Dil; McNamee, Roseanne

2008-12-01

Work-related stress (WRS) is known to cause ill-health and decreased productivity. Work in the education sector is thought to be particularly stressful. Few studies have considered risk factors for WRS and health in head teachers. To investigate health in head teachers in West Sussex. To determine personal risk factors most likely to predict cases of WRS and of poor health in head teachers. A cross-sectional study, in a population of 290 head teachers and principals of colleges of further education, using a validated questionnaire, 'a short stress evaluation tool' (ASSET) and additional questions derived from earlier studies. Results were compared with the ASSET database 'norm' groups: a general population of workers (GPN) group and a group of managers and professionals (MPN). 'Caseness' was defined as respondents who felt work was 'very or extremely stressful'. Head teachers had poor physical and mental health compared to the GPN group. Psychological well-being, particularly of females and primary head teachers was worse than a comparative group of managers and professionals. Teaching<5 h/week was a significant predictor of caseness and being female was the main risk factor for poor psychological well-being. Prevalence of self-reported stress in head teachers in West Sussex is high. Female head teachers had worse health outcomes. Our study identified possible personal risk factors predicting WRS and/or poor health in head teachers.

Sleep Quality Among Low-Income Young Women in Southeast Texas Predicts Changes in Perceived Stress Through Hurricane Ike.

PubMed

Wu, Zhao Helen; Stevens, Richard G; Tennen, Howard; North, Carol S; Grady, James J; Holzer, Charles

2015-07-01

To document the time course of perceived stress among women through the period of a natural disaster, to determine the effect of sleep quality on this time course, and to identify risk factors that predict higher levels of perceived stress. Longitudinal study from 2006-2012. Community-based family planning clinics in southeast Texas. There were 296 women aged 18-31 y who experienced Hurricane Ike, September 2008. Cohen Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) was administered every 2 mo from 6 mo before to 12 mo after Hurricane Ike. Sleep quality was assessed 1 mo after Hurricane Ike using the Pittsburg Sleep Quality Index (PSQI). Good sleep was defined as a PSQI summary score < 5, and poor sleep as a score ≥ 5. Hurricane Ike stressors (e.g., property damage, subjective stressors) and pre-Ike lifetime major life events and emotional health (e.g., emotional dysregulation, self-control) were also assessed. Over the entire period of 18 mo (6 mo before and 12 mo after the hurricane), perceived stress was significantly higher among poor sleepers compared to good sleepers, and only good sleepers showed a significant decrease in perceived stress after Hurricane Ike. In addition, a higher level of perceived stress was positively associated with greater Ike damage among poor sleepers, whereas this correlation was not observed among good sleepers. In the final multivariate longitudinal model, Ike-related subjective stressors as well as baseline major life events and emotional dysregulation among poor sleepers predicted higher levels of perceived stress over time; among good sleepers, additional factors such as lower levels of self-control and having a history of a psychiatric disorder also predicted higher levels of perceived stress. Sleep quality after Hurricane Ike, an intense natural disaster producing substantial damage, impacted changes in perceived stress over time. Our findings suggest the possibility that providing victims of disasters with effective interventions to improve sleep quality could help to reduce their perceived stress over time. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Clinical Prognosis in Neonatal Bacterial Meningitis: The Role of Cerebrospinal Fluid Protein.

PubMed

Tan, Jintong; Kan, Juan; Qiu, Gang; Zhao, Dongying; Ren, Fang; Luo, Zhongcheng; Zhang, Yongjun

2015-01-01

Neonates are at high risk of meningitis and of resulting neurologic complications. Early recognition of neonates at risk of poor prognosis would be helpful in providing timely management. From January 2008 to June 2014, we enrolled 232 term neonates with bacterial meningitis admitted to 3 neonatology departments in Shanghai, China. The clinical status on the day of discharge from these hospitals or at a postnatal age of 2.5 to 3 months was evaluated using the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS). Patients were classified into two outcome groups: good (167 cases, 72.0%, GOS = 5) or poor (65 cases, 28.0%, GOS = 1-4). Neonates with good outcome had less frequent apnea, drowsiness, poor feeding, bulging fontanelle, irritability and more severe jaundice compared to neonates with poor outcome. The good outcome group also had less pneumonia than the poor outcome group. Besides, there were statistically significant differences in hemoglobin, mean platelet volume, platelet distribution width, C-reaction protein, procalcitonin, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) glucose and CSF protein. Multivariate logistic regression analyses suggested that poor feeding, pneumonia and CSF protein were the predictors of poor outcome. CSF protein content was significantly higher in patients with poor outcome. The best cut-offs for predicting poor outcome were 1,880 mg/L in CSF protein concentration (sensitivity 70.8%, specificity 86.2%). After 2 weeks of treatment, CSF protein remained higher in the poor outcome group. High CSF protein concentration may prognosticate poor outcome in neonates with bacterial meningitis.

Can the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator predict post-operative complications in patients undergoing flap reconstruction following soft tissue sarcoma resection?

PubMed

Slump, Jelena; Ferguson, Peter C; Wunder, Jay S; Griffin, Anthony; Hoekstra, Harald J; Bagher, Shaghayegh; Zhong, Toni; Hofer, Stefan O P; O'Neill, Anne C

2016-10-01

The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator is an open-access on-line tool that estimates the risk of adverse post-operative outcomes for a wide range of surgical procedures. Wide surgical resection of soft tissue sarcoma (STS) often requires complex reconstructive procedures that can be associated with relatively high rates of complications. This study evaluates the ability of this calculator to identify patients with STS at risk for post-operative complications following flap reconstruction. Clinical details of 265 patients who underwent flap reconstruction following STS resection were entered into the online calculator. The predicted rates of complications were compared to the observed rates. The calculator model was validated using measures of prediction and discrimination. The mean predicted rate of any complication was 15.35 ± 5.6% which differed significantly from the observed rate of 32.5% (P = 0.009). The c-statistic was relatively low at 0.626 indicating poor discrimination between patients who are at risk of complications and those who are not. The Brier's score of 0.242 was significantly different from 0 (P < 0.001) indicating poor correlation between the predicted and actual probability of complications. The ACS-NSQIP universal risk calculator did not maintain its predictive value in patients undergoing flap reconstruction following STS resection. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:570-575. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting Survival of De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer in Asian Women: Systematic Review and Validation Study

PubMed Central

Miao, Hui; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala; Lee, Soo-Chin; Taib, Nur Aishah; Tan, Ern-Yu; Chan, Patrick; Moons, Karel G. M.; Wong, Hoong-Seam; Goh, Jeremy; Rahim, Siti Mastura; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M.

2014-01-01

Background In Asia, up to 25% of breast cancer patients present with distant metastases at diagnosis. Given the heterogeneous survival probabilities of de novo metastatic breast cancer, individual outcome prediction is challenging. The aim of the study is to identify existing prognostic models for patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer and validate them in Asia. Materials and Methods We performed a systematic review to identify prediction models for metastatic breast cancer. Models were validated in 642 women with de novo metastatic breast cancer registered between 2000 and 2010 in the Singapore Malaysia Hospital Based Breast Cancer Registry. Survival curves for low, intermediate and high-risk groups according to each prognostic score were compared by log-rank test and discrimination of the models was assessed by concordance statistic (C-statistic). Results We identified 16 prediction models, seven of which were for patients with brain metastases only. Performance status, estrogen receptor status, metastatic site(s) and disease-free interval were the most common predictors. We were able to validate nine prediction models. The capacity of the models to discriminate between poor and good survivors varied from poor to fair with C-statistics ranging from 0.50 (95% CI, 0.48–0.53) to 0.63 (95% CI, 0.60–0.66). Conclusion The discriminatory performance of existing prediction models for de novo metastatic breast cancer in Asia is modest. Development of an Asian-specific prediction model is needed to improve prognostication and guide decision making. PMID:24695692

[Predictive model based multimetric index of macroinvertebrates for river health assessment].

PubMed

Chen, Kai; Yu, Hai Yan; Zhang, Ji Wei; Wang, Bei Xin; Chen, Qiu Wen

2017-06-18

Improving the stability of integrity of biotic index (IBI; i.e., multi-metric indices, MMI) across temporal and spatial scales is one of the most important issues in water ecosystem integrity bioassessment and water environment management. Using datasets of field-based macroinvertebrate and physicochemical variables and GIS-based natural predictors (e.g., geomorphology and climate) and land use variables collected at 227 river sites from 2004 to 2011 across the Zhejiang Province, China, we used random forests (RF) to adjust the effects of natural variations at temporal and spatial scales on macroinvertebrate metrics. We then developed natural variations adjusted (predictive) and unadjusted (null) MMIs and compared performance between them. The core me-trics selected for predictive and null MMIs were different from each other, and natural variations within core metrics in predictive MMI explained by RF models ranged between 11.4% and 61.2%. The predictive MMI was more precise and accurate, but less responsive and sensitive than null MMI. The multivariate nearest-neighbor test determined that 9 test sites and 1 most degraded site were flagged outside of the environmental space of the reference site network. We found that combination of predictive MMI developed by using predictive model and the nearest-neighbor test performed best and decreased risks of inferring type I (designating a water body as being in poor biological condition, when it was actually in good condition) and type II (designating a water body as being in good biological condition, when it was actually in poor condition) errors. Our results provided an effective method to improve the stability and performance of integrity of biotic index.

The Causal Meaning of Genomic Predictors and How It Affects Construction and Comparison of Genome-Enabled Selection Models

PubMed Central

Valente, Bruno D.; Morota, Gota; Peñagaricano, Francisco; Gianola, Daniel; Weigel, Kent; Rosa, Guilherme J. M.

2015-01-01

The term “effect” in additive genetic effect suggests a causal meaning. However, inferences of such quantities for selection purposes are typically viewed and conducted as a prediction task. Predictive ability as tested by cross-validation is currently the most acceptable criterion for comparing models and evaluating new methodologies. Nevertheless, it does not directly indicate if predictors reflect causal effects. Such evaluations would require causal inference methods that are not typical in genomic prediction for selection. This suggests that the usual approach to infer genetic effects contradicts the label of the quantity inferred. Here we investigate if genomic predictors for selection should be treated as standard predictors or if they must reflect a causal effect to be useful, requiring causal inference methods. Conducting the analysis as a prediction or as a causal inference task affects, for example, how covariates of the regression model are chosen, which may heavily affect the magnitude of genomic predictors and therefore selection decisions. We demonstrate that selection requires learning causal genetic effects. However, genomic predictors from some models might capture noncausal signal, providing good predictive ability but poorly representing true genetic effects. Simulated examples are used to show that aiming for predictive ability may lead to poor modeling decisions, while causal inference approaches may guide the construction of regression models that better infer the target genetic effect even when they underperform in cross-validation tests. In conclusion, genomic selection models should be constructed to aim primarily for identifiability of causal genetic effects, not for predictive ability. PMID:25908318

Linking Family Characteristics with Poor Peer Relations: The Mediating Role of Conduct Problems

PubMed Central

Bierman, Karen Linn; Smoot, David L.

2012-01-01

Parent, teacher, and peer ratings were collected for 75 grade school boys to test the hypothesis that certain family interaction patterns would be associated with poor peer relations. Path analyses provided support for a mediational model, in which punitive and ineffective discipline was related to child conduct problems in home and school settings which, in turn, predicted poor peer relations. Further analyses suggested that distinct subgroups of boys could be identified who exhibited conduct problems at home only, at school only, in both settings, or in neither setting. Boys who exhibited cross-situational conduct problems were more likely to experience multiple concurrent problems (e.g., in both home and school settings) and were more likely than any other group to experience poor peer relations. However, only about one-third of the boys with poor peer relations in this sample exhibited problem profiles consistent with the proposed model (e.g., experienced high rates of punitive/ineffective home discipline and exhibited conduct problems in home and school settings), suggesting that the proposed model reflects one common (but not exclusive) pathway to poor peer relations. PMID:1865049

Electrodermal reactivity and its association to substance use disorders.

PubMed

Taylor, Jeanette

2004-11-01

Poor electrodermal response modulation is associated with substance use disorders, but the specificity of the relationship has not been tested. To test this, 112 college students were assessed for psychiatric symptoms using structured interviews and for ability to modulate skin conductance responses to 2-s 92- or 110-dB white noise blasts that varied in temporal predictability. Twenty-eight good and 28 poor modulators were compared on symptoms of alcohol and illicit drug use disorders, personality disorders (antisocial, borderline, histrionic, and narcissistic), social and specific phobia, and depression. As expected, poor modulators had significantly more symptoms of substance use disorders than good modulators. Groups did not differ in symptoms of anxiety disorder, depression, or personality disorders marked by disinhibition. Poor electrodermal response modulation may reflect a biological risk factor for substance use disorders in particular.

Predictive Design of Interfacial Functionality in Polymer Matrix Composites

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-24

structural design criteria. Due to the poor accessibility of interfaces by experimental means, little is known about the molecular definition, defect...is designed to allow for concurrent light scattering measurements, which establishes a unique experimental resource. We were able to leverage this...AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2017-0103 Predictive Design of Interfacial Functionality in Polymer Matrix Composites John Kieffer UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN 503

[Analysis of energy expenditure in adults with cystic fibrosis: comparison of indirect calorimetry and prediction equations].

PubMed

Fuster, Casilda Olveira; Fuster, Gabriel Olveira; Galindo, Antonio Dorado; Galo, Alicia Padilla; Verdugo, Julio Merino; Lozano, Francisco Miralles

2007-07-01

Undernutrition, which implies an imbalance between energy intake and energy requirements, is common in patients with cystic fibrosis. The aim of this study was to compare resting energy expenditure determined by indirect calorimetry with that obtained with commonly used predictive equations in adults with cystic fibrosis and to assess the influence of clinical variables on the values obtained. We studied 21 patients with clinically stable cystic fibrosis, obtaining data on anthropometric variables, hand grip dynamometry, electrical bioimpedance, and resting energy expenditure by indirect calorimetry. We used the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and the Bland-Altman method to assess agreement between the values obtained for resting energy expenditure measured by indirect calorimetry and those obtained with the World Health Organization (WHO) and Harris-Benedict prediction equations. The prediction equations underestimated resting energy expenditure in more than 90% of cases. The agreement between the value obtained by indirect calorimetry and that calculated with the prediction equations was poor (ICC for comparisons with the WHO and Harris-Benedict equations, 0.47 and 0.41, respectively). Bland-Altman analysis revealed a variable bias between the results of indirect calorimetry and those obtained with prediction equations, irrespective of the resting energy expenditure. The difference between the values measured by indirect calorimetry and those obtained with the WHO equation was significantly larger in patients homozygous for the DeltaF508 mutation and in those with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency. The WHO and Harris-Benedict prediction equations underestimate resting energy expenditure in adults with cystic fibrosis. There is poor agreement between the values for resting energy expenditure determined by indirect calorimetry and those estimated with prediction equations. Underestimation was greater in patients with exocrine pancreatic insufficiency and patients who were homozygous for DeltaF508.

Healthy eating index and breast cancer risk among Malaysian women.

PubMed

Shahril, Mohd Razif; Sulaiman, Suhaina; Shaharudin, Soraya Hanie; Akmal, Sharifah Noor

2013-07-01

Healthy Eating Index-2005 (HEI-2005), an index-based dietary pattern, has been shown to predict the risk of chronic diseases among Americans. This study aims to examine the ability of HEI-2005 in predicting the probability for risk of premenopausal and postmenopausal breast cancer among Malaysian women. Data from a case-control nutritional epidemiology study among 764 participants including 382 breast cancer cases and 382 healthy women were extracted and scored. Multivariate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to evaluate the relationship between the risk of breast cancer and quartiles (Q) of HEI-2005 total scores and its component, whereas the risk prediction ability of HEI-2005 was investigated using diagnostics analysis. The results of this study showed that there is a significant reduction in the risk of breast cancer, with a higher HEI-2005 total score among premenopausal women (OR Q1 vs. Q4=0.34, 95% CI; 0.15-0.76) and postmenopausal women (OR Q1 vs. Q4=0.20, 95% CI; 0.06-0.63). However, HEI-2005 has a sensitivity of 56-60%, a specificity of 55-60%, and a positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 57-58%, which indicates a moderate ability to predict the risk of breast cancer according to menopausal status. The breast cancer incidence observed poorly agrees with risk outcomes from HEI-2005 as shown by low κ statistics (κ=0.15). In conclusion, although the total HEI-2005 scores were associated with a risk of breast cancer among Malaysian women, the ability of HEI-2005 to predict risk is poor as indicated by the diagnostic analysis. A local index-based dietary pattern, which is disease specific, is required to predict the risk of breast cancer among Malaysian women for early prevention.

Trends of Abutment-Scour Prediction Equations Applied to 144 Field Sites in South Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Benedict, Stephen T.; Deshpande, Nikhil; Aziz, Nadim M.; Conrads, Paul

2006-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey conducted a study in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration in which predicted abutment-scour depths computed with selected predictive equations were compared with field measurements of abutment-scour depth made at 144 bridges in South Carolina. The assessment used five equations published in the Fourth Edition of 'Evaluating Scour at Bridges,' (Hydraulic Engineering Circular 18), including the original Froehlich, the modified Froehlich, the Sturm, the Maryland, and the HIRE equations. An additional unpublished equation also was assessed. Comparisons between predicted and observed scour depths are intended to illustrate general trends and order-of-magnitude differences for the prediction equations. Field measurements were taken during non-flood conditions when the hydraulic conditions that caused the scour generally are unknown. The predicted scour depths are based on hydraulic conditions associated with the 100-year flow at all sites and the flood of record for 35 sites. Comparisons showed that predicted scour depths frequently overpredict observed scour and at times were excessive. The comparison also showed that underprediction occurred, but with less frequency. The performance of these equations indicates that they are poor predictors of abutment-scour depth in South Carolina, and it is probable that poor performance will occur when the equations are applied in other geographic regions. Extensive data and graphs used to compare predicted and observed scour depths in this study were compiled into spreadsheets and are included in digital format with this report. In addition to the equation-comparison data, Water-Surface Profile Model tube-velocity data, soil-boring data, and selected abutment-scour data are included in digital format with this report. The digital database was developed as a resource for future researchers and is especially valuable for evaluating the reasonableness of future equations that may be developed.

Developing symptom-based predictive models of endometriosis as a clinical screening tool: results from a multicenter study

PubMed Central

Nnoaham, Kelechi E.; Hummelshoj, Lone; Kennedy, Stephen H.; Jenkinson, Crispin; Zondervan, Krina T.

2012-01-01

Objective To generate and validate symptom-based models to predict endometriosis among symptomatic women prior to undergoing their first laparoscopy. Design Prospective, observational, two-phase study, in which women completed a 25-item questionnaire prior to surgery. Setting Nineteen hospitals in 13 countries. Patient(s) Symptomatic women (n = 1,396) scheduled for laparoscopy without a previous surgical diagnosis of endometriosis. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms and patient characteristics from optimal models developed using multiple logistic regression analyses in one data set (phase I), and independently validated in a second data set (phase II) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Result(s) Three hundred sixty (46.7%) women in phase I and 364 (58.2%) in phase II were diagnosed with endometriosis at laparoscopy. Menstrual dyschezia (pain on opening bowels) and a history of benign ovarian cysts most strongly predicted both any and stage III and IV endometriosis in both phases. Prediction of any-stage endometriosis, although improved by ultrasound scan evidence of cyst/nodules, was relatively poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 68.3). Stage III and IV disease was predicted with good accuracy (AUC = 84.9, sensitivity of 82.3% and specificity 75.8% at an optimal cut-off of 0.24). Conclusion(s) Our symptom-based models predict any-stage endometriosis relatively poorly and stage III and IV disease with good accuracy. Predictive tools based on such models could help to prioritize women for surgical investigation in clinical practice and thus contribute to reducing time to diagnosis. We invite other researchers to validate the key models in additional populations. PMID:22657249

Reading and listening comprehension and their relation to inattention and hyperactivity.

PubMed

Cain, Kate; Bignell, Simon

2014-03-01

Children with diagnoses of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) frequently have reading problems. To date, it is not clear whether poor reading is associated with both inattention and hyperactivity and also whether poor reading comprehension is the result of poor word reading skills or more general language comprehension weaknesses. We report two studies to examine how reading and listening comprehension skills are related to inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Separate groups of 7- to 11-year-olds participated in each study. In both studies, we used teacher ratings of inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity to identify three groups at risk of ADHD: poor attention, high hyperactivity, poor attention and high hyperactivity, and also same-age controls. In Study 1, we explored how inattention and hyperactivity predicted reading after controlling for non-verbal IQ and vocabulary. In Study 2, we compared listening and reading comprehension in these groups. Poor attention was related to poor reading comprehension, although the relation was partially mediated by word reading skill (Study 1). Groups with high hyperactivity had weak listening comprehension relative to reading comprehension (Study 2). These results indicate that the reading comprehension problems of children with attention difficulties are related to poor word reading and that listening comprehension is particularly vulnerable in children at risk of ADHD. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

Sensory and motor peripheral nerve function and longitudinal changes in quadriceps strength.

PubMed

Ward, Rachel E; Boudreau, Robert M; Caserotti, Paolo; Harris, Tamara B; Zivkovic, Sasa; Goodpaster, Bret H; Satterfield, Suzanne; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Schwartz, Ann V; Vinik, Aaron I; Cauley, Jane A; Newman, Anne B; Strotmeyer, Elsa S

2015-04-01

Poor peripheral nerve function is common in older adults and may be a risk factor for strength decline, although this has not been assessed longitudinally. We assessed whether sensorimotor peripheral nerve function predicts strength longitudinally in 1,830 participants (age = 76.3 ± 2.8, body mass index = 27.2 ± 4.6kg/m(2), strength = 96.3 ± 34.7 Nm, 51.0% female, 34.8% black) from the Health ABC study. Isokinetic quadriceps strength was measured semiannually over 6 years. Peroneal motor nerve conduction amplitude and velocity were recorded. Sensory nerve function was assessed with 10-g and 1.4-g monofilaments and average vibration detection threshold at the toe. Lower-extremity neuropathy symptoms were self-reported. Worse vibration detection threshold predicted 2.4% lower strength in men and worse motor amplitude and two symptoms predicted 2.5% and 8.1% lower strength, respectively, in women. Initial 10-g monofilament insensitivity predicted 14.2% lower strength and faster strength decline in women and 6.6% lower strength in men (all p < .05). Poor nerve function predicted lower strength and faster strength decline. Future work should examine interventions aimed at preventing declines in strength in older adults with impaired nerve function. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Dynamical Constraints on the Dark Matter Distribution of the Sculptor Dwarf Spheroidal from Stellar Proper Motions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strigari, Louis E.; Frenk, Carlos S.; White, Simon D. M.

2018-06-01

We compare the transverse velocity dispersions recently measured within the Sculptor dwarf spheroidal galaxy to the predictions of our previously published dynamical model. This was designed to fit the observed number count and velocity dispersion profiles of both metal-rich and metal-poor stars, both in cored and in cusped potentials. At the projected radius where the proper motions (PMs) were measured, this model (with no change in parameters) predicts transverse dispersions in the range of 6–9.5 km s‑1, with the tangential dispersion about 1 km s‑1 larger than the (projected) radial dispersion. Both dispersions are predicted to be about 1 km s‑1 larger for metal-poor than for metal-rich stars. At this projected radius, cored and cusped potentials predict almost identical transverse dispersions. The measured tangential dispersion (8.5 ± 3.2 km s‑1) agrees remarkably well with these predictions, while the measured radial dispersion (11.5 ± 4.3 km s‑1) differs only at about the 1σ level. Thus, the PM data are in excellent agreement with previous data, but do not help to distinguish between cored and cusped potentials. This will require velocity dispersion data (either from PMs or from radial velocities) with uncertainties well below 1 km s‑1 over a range of projected radii.

Does Your Neighbor’s Income Affect Your Happiness?1

PubMed Central

Firebaugh, Glenn; Schroeder, Matthew B.

2014-01-01

The relative income or income status hypothesis implies that people should be happier when they live among the poor. Findings on neighborhood effects suggest, however, that living in a poorer neighborhood reduces, not enhances, a person’s happiness. Using data from the American National Election Study linked to income data from the U.S. census, the authors find that Americans tend to be happier when they reside in richer neighborhoods (consistent with neighborhood studies) in poorer counties (as predicted by the relative income hypothesis). Thus it appears that individuals in fact are happier when they live among the poor, as long as the poor do not live too close. PMID:20503742

Predictors of Nightly Subjective-Objective Sleep Discrepancy in Poor Sleepers over a Seven-Day Period

PubMed Central

Herbert, Vanessa; Pratt, Daniel; Emsley, Richard; Kyle, Simon D.

2017-01-01

This study sought to examine predictors of subjective/objective sleep discrepancy in poor sleepers. Forty-two individuals with insomnia symptoms (mean age = 36.2 years, 81% female) were recruited to take part in a prospective study which combined seven days of actigraphy with daily assessment of sleep perceptions, self-reported arousal, sleep effort, and mood upon awakening. A high level of intra-individual variability in measures of sleep discrepancy was observed. Multilevel modelling revealed that higher levels of pre-sleep cognitive activity and lower mood upon awakening were significantly and independently predictive of the underestimation of total sleep time. Greater levels of sleep effort predicted overestimation of sleep onset latency. These results indicate that psychophysiological variables are related to subjective/objective sleep discrepancy and may be important therapeutic targets in the management of insomnia. PMID:28282912

A rule of unity for human intestinal absorption 3: Application to pharmaceuticals.

PubMed

Patel, Raj B; Yalkowsky, Samuel H

2018-02-01

The rule of unity is based on a simple absorption parameter, Π, that can accurately predict whether or not an orally administered drug will be well absorbed or poorly absorbed. The intrinsic aqueous solubility and octanol-water partition coefficient, along with the drug dose are used to calculate Π. We show that a single delineator value for Π exist that can distinguish whether a drug is likely to be well absorbed (FA ≥ 0.5) or poorly absorbed (FA < 0.5) at any specified dose. The model is shown to give 82.5% correct predictions for over 938 pharmaceuticals. The maximum well-absorbed dose (i.e. the maximum dose that will be more than 50% absorbed) calculated using this model can be utilized as a guideline for drug design and synthesis. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aberrant membranous expression of β-catenin predicts poor prognosis in patients with craniopharyngioma.

PubMed

Li, Zongping; Xu, Jianguo; Huang, Siqing; You, Chao

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to investigate β-catenin expression in craniopharyngioma patients and determine its significance in predicting the prognosis of this disease. Fifty craniopharyngioma patients were enrolled in this study. Expression of β-catenin in tumor specimens collected from these patients was examined through immunostaining. In addition, mutation of exon 3 in the β-catenin gene, CTNNB1, was analyzed using polymerase chain reaction, denaturing high-pressure liquid chromatography, and DNA sequencing. Based on these results, we explored the association between membranous β-catenin expression, clinical and pathologic characteristics, and prognoses in these patients. Of all craniopharyngioma specimens, 31 (62.0%) had preserved membranous β-catenin expression, whereas the remaining 19 specimens (38.0%) displayed aberrant expression. Statistical analysis showed a significant correlation between aberrant membranous β-catenin expression and CTNNB1 exon 3 mutation, as well as between aberrant membranous β-catenin expression and the histopathologic type of craniopharyngioma and type of resection in our patient population. Furthermore, aberrant membranous β-catenin expression was found to be associated with poor patient survival. Results of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analysis further confirmed this finding. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that aberrant membranous β-catenin expression was significantly correlated with poor survival in patients with craniopharyngioma. This raises the possibility for use of aberrant membranous β-catenin expression as an independent risk factor in predicting the prognosis of this disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Choosing a design to fit the situation: how to improve specificity and positive predictive values using Bayesian lot quality assurance sampling.

PubMed

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello

2013-02-01

Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is a provably useful tool for monitoring health programmes. Although LQAS ensures acceptable Producer and Consumer risks, the literature alleges that the method suffers from poor specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs). We suggest that poor LQAS performance is due, in part, to variation in the true underlying distribution. However, until now the role of the underlying distribution in expected performance has not been adequately examined. We present Bayesian-LQAS (B-LQAS), an approach to incorporating prior information into the choice of the LQAS sample size and decision rule, and explore its properties through a numerical study. Additionally, we analyse vaccination coverage data from UNICEF's State of the World's Children in 1968-1989 and 2008 to exemplify the performance of LQAS and B-LQAS. Results of our numerical study show that the choice of LQAS sample size and decision rule is sensitive to the distribution of prior information, as well as to individual beliefs about the importance of correct classification. Application of the B-LQAS approach to the UNICEF data improves specificity and PPV in both time periods (1968-1989 and 2008) with minimal reductions in sensitivity and negative predictive value. LQAS is shown to be a robust tool that is not necessarily prone to poor specificity and PPV as previously alleged. In situations where prior or historical data are available, B-LQAS can lead to improvements in expected performance.

Should Schools Expect Poor Physical and Mental Health, Social Adjustment, and Participation Outcomes in Students with Disability?

PubMed Central

Vaz, Sharmila; Cordier, Reinie; Falkmer, Marita; Ciccarelli, Marina; Parsons, Richard; McAuliffe, Tomomi; Falkmer, Torbjorn

2015-01-01

The literature on whether students with disabilities have worse physical and mental health, social adjustment, and participation outcomes when compared to their peers without disabilities is largely inconclusive. While the majority of case control studies showed significantly worse outcomes for students with disabilities; the proportion of variance accounted for is rarely reported. The current study used a population cross-sectional approach to determine the classification ability of commonly used screening and outcome measures in determining the disability status. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify the variables, if any, that best predicted the presence of disability. Results of univariate discriminant function analyses suggest that across the board, the sensitivity of the outcome/screening tools to correctly identify students with a disability was 31.9% higher than the related Positive Predictive Value (PPV). The lower PPV and Positive Likelihood Ratio (LR+) scores suggest that the included measures had limited discriminant ability (17.6% to 40.3%) in accurately identifying students at-risk for further assessment. Results of multivariate analyses suggested that poor health and hyperactivity increased the odds of having a disability about two to three times, while poor close perceived friendship and academic competences predicted disability with roughly the same magnitude. Overall, the findings of the current study highlight the need for researchers and clinicians to familiarize themselves with the psychometric properties of measures, and be cautious in matching the function of the measures with their research and clinical needs. PMID:25965845

Should schools expect poor physical and mental health, social adjustment, and participation outcomes in students with disability?

PubMed

Vaz, Sharmila; Cordier, Reinie; Falkmer, Marita; Ciccarelli, Marina; Parsons, Richard; McAuliffe, Tomomi; Falkmer, Torbjorn

2015-01-01

The literature on whether students with disabilities have worse physical and mental health, social adjustment, and participation outcomes when compared to their peers without disabilities is largely inconclusive. While the majority of case control studies showed significantly worse outcomes for students with disabilities; the proportion of variance accounted for is rarely reported. The current study used a population cross-sectional approach to determine the classification ability of commonly used screening and outcome measures in determining the disability status. Furthermore, the study aimed to identify the variables, if any, that best predicted the presence of disability. Results of univariate discriminant function analyses suggest that across the board, the sensitivity of the outcome/screening tools to correctly identify students with a disability was 31.9% higher than the related Positive Predictive Value (PPV). The lower PPV and Positive Likelihood Ratio (LR+) scores suggest that the included measures had limited discriminant ability (17.6% to 40.3%) in accurately identifying students at-risk for further assessment. Results of multivariate analyses suggested that poor health and hyperactivity increased the odds of having a disability about two to three times, while poor close perceived friendship and academic competences predicted disability with roughly the same magnitude. Overall, the findings of the current study highlight the need for researchers and clinicians to familiarize themselves with the psychometric properties of measures, and be cautious in matching the function of the measures with their research and clinical needs.

[Validation of the Pneumonia Severity Index for hospitalizing patients with community-acquired pneumonia].

PubMed

Querol-Ribelles, José M; Tenías, José M; Querol-Borrás, José M; González-Granda, Damiana; Hernández, Manuel; Ferreruela, Rosa; Martínez, Isidoro

2004-04-10

Our main objective was to assess the utility of the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) to decide the site of care home or hospital of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). All CAP patients who came to the emergency department from 1 January to 31 December, 2000, were prospectively assessed with a protocol based on the PSI and additional admission criteria applied to classes I, II and III. Mortality within 30 days and poor outcome were used as endpoints. We tested the diagnostic efficacy of the PSI scale in predicting mortality or unfavourable events by calculating the area below the ROC curve. Of the 243 CAP patients included, 124 (51%) belonged to classes I, II and III, and 119 (49%) belonged to classes IV and V. One hundred and fifty six (64%) patients were admitted. Fifteen (6.2%) patients died, all of them belonging to classes IV and V. Forty four (18%) patients showed a poor outcome. Only one patient who was initially sent home had a poor outcome. The prognostic value of the PSI scale to predict mortality (ROC = 0.92; CI 95%, 0.88-0.95) was high. Our results confirm that the PSI scale is a good prognostic index in clinical practice for predicting mortality due to CAP. In order to use the PSI to decide the site of care of patients with CAP, not only the score obtained but also additional factors should be taken into account.

Biomarkers, lactate, and clinical scores as outcome predictors in systemic poisons exposures.

PubMed

Lionte, C; Sorodoc, V; Tuchilus, C; Cimpoiesu, D; Jaba, E

2017-07-01

Acute exposure to systemic poisons represents an important challenge in clinical toxicology. We aimed to analyze the potential role of cardiac biomarkers, routine laboratory tests, and clinical scores as morbidity and in-hospital mortality predictors in patients intoxicated with various systemic poisons. We conducted a prospective study on adults acutely exposed to systemic poisons. We determined the PSS, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), and we performed electrocardiogram, laboratory tests, lactate and cardiac biomarkers (which were reassessed 4 h, respectively 6 h later). Of 120 patients included, 45% developed complications, 19.2% had a poor outcome, and 5% died. Multivariate logistic regression sustained lactate (odds ratio (OR) 1.58; confidence interval (CI) 95%: 0.97-2.59; p 0.066), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (6h-CKMB; OR 1.08; CI 95%: 1.02-1.16; p 0.018) as predictors for a poor outcome. A GCS < 10 (OR 0.113; CI 95%: 0.019-0.658; p 0.015) and 4h-lactate (OR 4.87; CI 95%: 0.79-29.82; p 0.087) predicted mortality after systemic poisons exposure. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that brain natriuretic peptide (area under the curve (AUC), 0.96; CI 95%: 0.92-0.99; p < 0.001), lactate (AUC, 0.91; CI 95%: 0.85-0.97; p < 0.001), and 6h-CKMB have good discriminatory capacity for predicting a poor outcome. In conclusion, these biomarkers, lactate, and GCS can be used to predict morbidity and mortality after systemic poisons exposure.

Prospective Predictors of Suicidal Behavior in BPD at 6 Year Follow-up

PubMed Central

Soloff, Paul H.; Chiappetta, Laurel

2012-01-01

Objective Recurrent suicidal behavior is a defining characteristic of BPD. Although most patients achieve remission of suicidal behaviors over time, 3% to 10% die by suicide, raising the question of whether there is a high risk suicidal subtype in BPD. We are conducting the first longitudinal study of suicidal behavior in BPD to identify prospective predictors of suicide attempts, and characterize BPD patients at highest risk for suicide completion. Method Demographic, diagnostic, clinical and psychosocial risk factors assessed at baseline were examined for predictive association with medically significant suicide attempts using Cox proportional hazards models. Prospective predictors were defined for subjects completing 6 or more years in the study and compared to earlier intervals. Results Among 90 subjects, 25 (27.8%) made at least one suicide attempt in the interval, most occurring in the first two years. Risk of attempt was increased by: a.) low socioeconomic status, b.) poor psychosocial adjustment, c.) a family history of suicide d.) prior psychiatric hospitalization; e.) absence of any outpatient treatment prior to the attempt. Higher global functioning at baseline decreased risk. Conclusion Risk factors predictive of suicide attempts change over time. Acute stressors such as MDD were predictive only in the short term (12 mos.), while poor psychosocial functioning had persistent and long term effects on suicide risk. Half of BPD patients have poor psychosocial outcomes despite symptomatic improvement. A social and vocational rehabilitation model of treatment is needed to decrease suicide risk and optimize long term outcomes in BPD. PMID:22549208

Environmental Dysfunctions, Childhood Maltreatment and Women's Intimate Partner Violence Victimization.

PubMed

Cascio, Maria Lo; Guarnaccia, Cinzia; Infurna, Maria Rita; Mancuso, Laura; Parroco, Anna Maria; Giannone, Francesca

2017-06-01

Childhood maltreatment is considered a crucial explanatory variable for intimate partner violence (IPV) in adulthood. However, a developmental multifactorial model for the etiology of IPV is not shared by researchers yet. This study has investigated the role of a wide range of childhood maltreatments and family and social dysfunctions in predicting IPV; furthermore, it tests a model where childhood maltreatment mediates the relationship between environmental dysfunctions and IPV. The sample included 78 women: IPV (38) and non-IPV (40). The Italian version of the Childhood Experience of Care and Abuse (CECA) Interview was used to assess the presence of adverse childhood experiences. The Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2) and the IPV History Interview were used to assess IPV in the last year and lifetime, respectively. The results of a multivariate logistic regression model have indicated that only sexual (odds ratio [OR] = 4.24) and psychological (OR = 3.45) abuse significantly predicted IPV; with regard to association between IPV and environmental dysfunctions, only poor social support (OR = 8.91) significantly predicted IPV. The results of a mediation model have shown that childhood psychological and sexual abuse, in association with each other, partially mediate the relationship between poor social support and IPV. The findings from this study pinpoint poor social support as an important predictor of IPV so far neglected in the literature on the developmental antecedents of IPV. They also support the theoretical assumption according to which dysfunctional environmental variables and types of childhood maltreatment interacting with each other may influence development outcomes.

Effects of gastric pH on oral drug absorption: In vitro assessment using a dissolution/permeation system reflecting the gastric dissolution process.

PubMed

Kataoka, Makoto; Fukahori, Miho; Ikemura, Atsumi; Kubota, Ayaka; Higashino, Haruki; Sakuma, Shinji; Yamashita, Shinji

2016-04-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effects of gastric pH on the oral absorption of poorly water-soluble drugs using an in vitro system. A dissolution/permeation system (D/P system) equipped with a Caco-2 cell monolayer was used as the in vitro system to evaluate oral drug absorption, while a small vessel filled with simulated gastric fluid (SGF) was used to reflect the gastric dissolution phase. After applying drugs in their solid forms to SGF, SGF solution containing a 1/100 clinical dose of each drug was mixed with the apical solution of the D/P system, which was changed to fasted state-simulated intestinal fluid. Dissolved and permeated amounts on applied amount of drugs were then monitored for 2h. Similar experiments were performed using the same drugs, but without the gastric phase. Oral absorption with or without the gastric phase was predicted in humans based on the amount of the drug that permeated in the D/P system, assuming that the system without the gastric phase reflected human absorption with an elevated gastric pH. The dissolved amounts of basic drugs with poor water solubility, namely albendazole, dipyridamole, and ketoconazole, in the apical solution and their permeation across a Caco-2 cell monolayer were significantly enhanced when the gastric dissolution process was reflected due to the physicochemical properties of basic drugs. These amounts resulted in the prediction of higher oral absorption with normal gastric pH than with high gastric pH. On the other hand, when diclofenac sodium, the salt form of an acidic drug, was applied to the D/P system with the gastric phase, its dissolved and permeated amounts were significantly lower than those without the gastric phase. However, the oral absorption of diclofenac was predicted to be complete (96-98%) irrespective of gastric pH because the permeated amounts of diclofenac under both conditions were sufficiently high to achieve complete absorption. These estimations of the effects of gastric pH on the oral absorption of poorly water-soluble drugs were consistent with observations in humans. In conclusion, the D/P system with the gastric phase may be a useful tool for better predicting the oral absorption of poorly water-soluble basic drugs. In addition, the effects of gastric pH on the oral absorption of poorly water-soluble drugs may be evaluated by the D/P system with and without the gastric phase. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Efffect of Aeroallergen Sensitization on Asthma Control in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In African-American adolescents with persistent asthma, allergic profile predicted the likelihood of having poorly controlled asthma despite guidelines-directed therapies. Our results suggest that tree and weed pollen sensitization are independent risk factors for poorly controlled asthma in this at-risk population. The study examined African-American children with difficult to treat asthma. The findings suggest that in addition to guidelines-directed asthma therapies, targeting the allergic component, particularly tree and weed pollen, is critical to achieving optimal asthma control in this at-risk population.

CAMEL: concept annotated image libraries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natsev, Apostol; Chadha, Atul; Soetarman, Basuki; Vitter, Jeffrey S.

2001-01-01

The problem of content-based image searching has received considerable attention in the last few years. Thousands of images are now available on the Internet, and many important applications require searching of images in domains such as E-commerce, medical imaging, weather prediction, satellite imagery, and so on. Yet, content-based image querying is still largely unestablished as a mainstream field, nor is it widely used by search engines. We believe that two of the major hurdles for this poor acceptance are poor retrieval quality and usability.

CAMEL: concept annotated image libraries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natsev, Apostol; Chadha, Atul; Soetarman, Basuki; Vitter, Jeffrey S.

2000-12-01

The problem of content-based image searching has received considerable attention in the last few years. Thousands of images are now available on the Internet, and many important applications require searching of images in domains such as E-commerce, medical imaging, weather prediction, satellite imagery, and so on. Yet, content-based image querying is still largely unestablished as a mainstream field, nor is it widely used by search engines. We believe that two of the major hurdles for this poor acceptance are poor retrieval quality and usability.

A randomized trial of microdose leuprolide acetate protocol versus luteal phase ganirelix protocol in predicted poor responders.

PubMed

DiLuigi, Andrea J; Engmann, Lawrence; Schmidt, David W; Benadiva, Claudio A; Nulsen, John C

2011-06-30

We performed a randomized trial to compare IVF outcomes in 54 poor responder patients undergoing a microdose leuprolide acetate (LA) protocol or a GnRH antagonist protocol incorporating a luteal phase E(2) patch and GnRH antagonist in the preceding menstrual cycle. Cancellation rates, number of oocytes retrieved, clinical pregnancy rates (PR), and ongoing PRs were similar between the two groups. Copyright © 2011 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A reciprocal model of face recognition and autistic traits: evidence from an individual differences perspective.

PubMed

Halliday, Drew W R; MacDonald, Stuart W S; Scherf, K Suzanne; Sherf, Suzanne K; Tanaka, James W

2014-01-01

Although not a core symptom of the disorder, individuals with autism often exhibit selective impairments in their face processing abilities. Importantly, the reciprocal connection between autistic traits and face perception has rarely been examined within the typically developing population. In this study, university participants from the social sciences, physical sciences, and humanities completed a battery of measures that assessed face, object and emotion recognition abilities, general perceptual-cognitive style, and sub-clinical autistic traits (the Autism Quotient (AQ)). We employed separate hierarchical multiple regression analyses to evaluate which factors could predict face recognition scores and AQ scores. Gender, object recognition performance, and AQ scores predicted face recognition behaviour. Specifically, males, individuals with more autistic traits, and those with lower object recognition scores performed more poorly on the face recognition test. Conversely, university major, gender and face recognition performance reliably predicted AQ scores. Science majors, males, and individuals with poor face recognition skills showed more autistic-like traits. These results suggest that the broader autism phenotype is associated with lower face recognition abilities, even among typically developing individuals.

A Reciprocal Model of Face Recognition and Autistic Traits: Evidence from an Individual Differences Perspective

PubMed Central

Halliday, Drew W. R.; MacDonald, Stuart W. S.; Sherf, Suzanne K.; Tanaka, James W.

2014-01-01

Although not a core symptom of the disorder, individuals with autism often exhibit selective impairments in their face processing abilities. Importantly, the reciprocal connection between autistic traits and face perception has rarely been examined within the typically developing population. In this study, university participants from the social sciences, physical sciences, and humanities completed a battery of measures that assessed face, object and emotion recognition abilities, general perceptual-cognitive style, and sub-clinical autistic traits (the Autism Quotient (AQ)). We employed separate hierarchical multiple regression analyses to evaluate which factors could predict face recognition scores and AQ scores. Gender, object recognition performance, and AQ scores predicted face recognition behaviour. Specifically, males, individuals with more autistic traits, and those with lower object recognition scores performed more poorly on the face recognition test. Conversely, university major, gender and face recognition performance reliably predicted AQ scores. Science majors, males, and individuals with poor face recognition skills showed more autistic-like traits. These results suggest that the broader autism phenotype is associated with lower face recognition abilities, even among typically developing individuals. PMID:24853862

A Longitudinal Study of Financial Difficulties and Mental Health in a National Sample of British Undergraduate Students.

PubMed

Richardson, Thomas; Elliott, Peter; Roberts, Ron; Jansen, Megan

2017-04-01

Previous research has shown a relationship between financial difficulties and poor mental health in students, but most research is cross-sectional. To examine longitudinal relationships over time between financial variables and mental health in students. A national sample of 454 first year British undergraduate students completed measures of mental health and financial variables at up to four time points across a year. Cross-sectional relationships were found between poorer mental health and female gender, having a disability and non-white ethnicity. Greater financial difficulties predicted greater depression and stress cross-sectionally, and also predicted poorer anxiety, global mental health and alcohol dependence over time. Depression worsened over time for those who had considered abandoning studies or not coming to university for financial reasons, and there were effects for how students viewed their student loan. Anxiety and alcohol dependence also predicted worsening financial situation suggesting a bi-directional relationship. Financial difficulties appear to lead to poor mental health in students with the possibility of a vicious cycle occurring.

E-nose based rapid prediction of early mouldy grain using probabilistic neural networks

PubMed Central

Ying, Xiaoguo; Liu, Wei; Hui, Guohua; Fu, Jun

2015-01-01

In this paper, early mouldy grain rapid prediction method using probabilistic neural network (PNN) and electronic nose (e-nose) was studied. E-nose responses to rice, red bean, and oat samples with different qualities were measured and recorded. E-nose data was analyzed using principal component analysis (PCA), back propagation (BP) network, and PNN, respectively. Results indicated that PCA and BP network could not clearly discriminate grain samples with different mouldy status and showed poor predicting accuracy. PNN showed satisfying discriminating abilities to grain samples with an accuracy of 93.75%. E-nose combined with PNN is effective for early mouldy grain prediction. PMID:25714125

Global vision of druggability issues: applications and perspectives.

PubMed

Abi Hussein, Hiba; Geneix, Colette; Petitjean, Michel; Borrel, Alexandre; Flatters, Delphine; Camproux, Anne-Claude

2017-02-01

During the preliminary stage of a drug discovery project, the lack of druggability information and poor target selection are the main causes of frequent failures. Elaborating on accurate computational druggability prediction methods is a requirement for prioritizing target selection, designing new drugs and avoiding side effects. In this review, we describe a survey of recently reported druggability prediction methods mainly based on networks, statistical pocket druggability predictions and virtual screening. An application for a frequent mutation of p53 tumor suppressor is presented, illustrating the complementarity of druggability prediction approaches, the remaining challenges and potential new drug development perspectives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early Prediction of Intensive Care Unit-Acquired Weakness: A Multicenter External Validation Study.

PubMed

Witteveen, Esther; Wieske, Luuk; Sommers, Juultje; Spijkstra, Jan-Jaap; de Waard, Monique C; Endeman, Henrik; Rijkenberg, Saskia; de Ruijter, Wouter; Sleeswijk, Mengalvio; Verhamme, Camiel; Schultz, Marcus J; van Schaik, Ivo N; Horn, Janneke

2018-01-01

An early diagnosis of intensive care unit-acquired weakness (ICU-AW) is often not possible due to impaired consciousness. To avoid a diagnostic delay, we previously developed a prediction model, based on single-center data from 212 patients (development cohort), to predict ICU-AW at 2 days after ICU admission. The objective of this study was to investigate the external validity of the original prediction model in a new, multicenter cohort and, if necessary, to update the model. Newly admitted ICU patients who were mechanically ventilated at 48 hours after ICU admission were included. Predictors were prospectively recorded, and the outcome ICU-AW was defined by an average Medical Research Council score <4. In the validation cohort, consisting of 349 patients, we analyzed performance of the original prediction model by assessment of calibration and discrimination. Additionally, we updated the model in this validation cohort. Finally, we evaluated a new prediction model based on all patients of the development and validation cohort. Of 349 analyzed patients in the validation cohort, 190 (54%) developed ICU-AW. Both model calibration and discrimination of the original model were poor in the validation cohort. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) was 0.60 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54-0.66). Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The new prediction model, based on all patients of the development and validation cohort (total of 536 patients) had a fair discrimination, AUC-ROC: 0.70 (95% CI: 0.66-0.75). The previously developed prediction model for ICU-AW showed poor performance in a new independent multicenter validation cohort. Model updating methods improved calibration but not discrimination. The newly derived prediction model showed fair discrimination. This indicates that early prediction of ICU-AW is still challenging and needs further attention.

Current strategies for the diagnosis and management of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), with a focus on poor-risk CLL: A review.

PubMed

Clanahan, Fabienne Mc; Dreger, Peter

2011-06-05

Despite substantial advancement in the understanding and treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), a standard curative approach does not exist. The choice of treatment is generally based on the existence of biological and genetic factors associated with the prediction of prognosis, individual response to therapy, and duration of remission. About 20% of patients that require treatment have an aggressive disease course and die within a few years, despite early initiation of intensive therapy (poor-risk CLL). Poor-risk CLL can be predicted by the presence of genomic markers, and the quality and duration of response to purine-analogue-based treatment. Within this patient subgroup alternative treatment approaches such as alemtuzumab or new substances such as flavopiridol or IMiDs® should be considered. To date, the only treatment bearing curative potential is allogeneic stem cell transplantation; in contrast to conventional immunochemotherapy, it can provide long-term disease control, even in patients with del 17p or other unfavorable biological and clinical risk factors. The aim of this review was to outline the current strategies for the diagnosis and management of CLL, with a focus on high-risk CLL.

Neuronal effects of nicotine during auditory selective attention in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Smucny, Jason; Olincy, Ann; Rojas, Donald C; Tregellas, Jason R

2016-01-01

Although nicotine has been shown to improve attention deficits in schizophrenia, the neurobiological mechanisms underlying this effect are poorly understood. We hypothesized that nicotine would modulate attention-associated neuronal response in schizophrenia patients in the ventral parietal cortex (VPC), hippocampus, and anterior cingulate based on previous findings in control subjects. To test this hypothesis, the present study examined response in these regions in a cohort of nonsmoking patients and healthy control subjects using an auditory selective attention task with environmental noise distractors during placebo and nicotine administration. In agreement with our hypothesis, significant diagnosis (Control vs. Patient) X drug (Placebo vs. Nicotine) interactions were observed in the VPC and hippocampus. The interaction was driven by task-associated hyperactivity in patients (relative to healthy controls) during placebo administration, and decreased hyperactivity in patients after nicotine administration (relative to placebo). No significant interaction was observed in the anterior cingulate. Task-associated hyperactivity of the VPC predicted poor task performance in patients during placebo. Poor task performance also predicted symptoms in patients as measured by the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. These results are the first to suggest that nicotine may modulate brain activity in a selective attention-dependent manner in schizophrenia. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The role of perceived barriers and objectively measured physical activity in adults aged 65-100.

PubMed

Gellert, Paul; Witham, Miles D; Crombie, Iain K; Donnan, Peter T; McMurdo, Marion E T; Sniehotta, Falko F

2015-05-01

to test the predictive utility of perceived barriers to objectively measured physical activity levels in a stratified sample of older adults when accounting for social-cognitive determinants proposed by the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), and economic and demographic factors. data were analysed from the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland survey, a representative and stratified (65-80 and 80+ years; deprived and affluent) sample of 584 community-dwelling older people, resident in Tayside, Scotland. Physical activity was measured objectively by accelerometry. perceived barriers clustered around the areas of poor health, lack of interest, lack of safety and lack of access. Perceived poor health and lack of interest, but not lack of access or concerns about personal safety, predicted physical activity after controlling for demographic, economic and TPB variables. perceived person-related barriers (poor health and lack of interest) seem to be more strongly associated with physical activity levels than perceived environmental barriers (safety and access) in a large sample of older adults. Perceived barriers are modifiable and may be a target for future interventions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Geriatrics Society. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Loss of Cytoplasmic CDK1 Predicts Poor Survival in Human Lung Cancer and Confers Chemotherapeutic Resistance

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chunyu; Elkahloun, Abdel G.; Robertson, Matthew; Gills, Joell J.; Tsurutani, Junji; Shih, Joanna H.; Fukuoka, Junya; Hollander, M. Christine; Harris, Curtis C.; Travis, William D.; Jen, Jin; Dennis, Phillip A.

2011-01-01

The dismal lethality of lung cancer is due to late stage at diagnosis and inherent therapeutic resistance. The incorporation of targeted therapies has modestly improved clinical outcomes, but the identification of new targets could further improve clinical outcomes by guiding stratification of poor-risk early stage patients and individualizing therapeutic choices. We hypothesized that a sequential, combined microarray approach would be valuable to identify and validate new targets in lung cancer. We profiled gene expression signatures during lung epithelial cell immortalization and transformation, and showed that genes involved in mitosis were progressively enhanced in carcinogenesis. 28 genes were validated by immunoblotting and 4 genes were further evaluated in non-small cell lung cancer tissue microarrays. Although CDK1 was highly expressed in tumor tissues, its loss from the cytoplasm unexpectedly predicted poor survival and conferred resistance to chemotherapy in multiple cell lines, especially microtubule-directed agents. An analysis of expression of CDK1 and CDK1-associated genes in the NCI60 cell line database confirmed the broad association of these genes with chemotherapeutic responsiveness. These results have implications for personalizing lung cancer therapy and highlight the potential of combined approaches for biomarker discovery. PMID:21887332

Body Dissatisfaction, Living Away from Parents, and Poor Social Adjustment Predict Binge Eating Symptoms in Young Women Making the Transition to University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barker, Erin T.; Galambos, Nancy L.

2007-01-01

The current study explored how body dissatisfaction and challenges associated with the transition to university predicted symptoms of binge eating. Participants were 101 female full-time first-year university students (M=18.3 years of age; SD=0.50) who completed a background questionnaire and a web-based daily checklist assessing binge eating.…

Overlooked habitat of a vulnerable gorgonian revealed in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic by ecological niche modelling

PubMed Central

Boavida, Joana; Assis, Jorge; Silva, Inga; Serrão, Ester A.

2016-01-01

Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30–200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5–25.5 °C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to >150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas. PMID:27841263

Modeling Gas and Gas Hydrate Accumulation in Marine Sediments Using a K-Nearest Neighbor Machine-Learning Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, W. T.; Runyan, T. E.; Palmsten, M.; Dale, J.; Crawford, C.

2016-12-01

Natural Gas (primarily methane) and gas hydrate accumulations require certain bio-geochemical, as well as physical conditions, some of which are poorly sampled and/or poorly understood. We exploit recent advances in the prediction of seafloor porosity and heat flux via machine learning techniques (e.g. Random forests and Bayesian networks) to predict the occurrence of gas and subsequently gas hydrate in marine sediments. The prediction (actually guided interpolation) of key parameters we use in this study is a K-nearest neighbor technique. KNN requires only minimal pre-processing of the data and predictors, and requires minimal run-time input so the results are almost entirely data-driven. Specifically we use new estimates of sedimentation rate and sediment type, along with recently derived compaction modeling to estimate profiles of porosity and age. We combined the compaction with seafloor heat flux to estimate temperature with depth and geologic age, which, with estimates of organic carbon, and models of methanogenesis yield limits on the production of methane. Results include geospatial predictions of gas (and gas hydrate) accumulations, with quantitative estimates of uncertainty. The Generic Earth Modeling System (GEMS) we have developed to derive the machine learning estimates is modular and easily updated with new algorithms or data.

Decision trees to characterise the roles of permeability and solubility on the prediction of oral absorption.

PubMed

Newby, Danielle; Freitas, Alex A; Ghafourian, Taravat

2015-01-27

Oral absorption of compounds depends on many physiological, physiochemical and formulation factors. Two important properties that govern oral absorption are in vitro permeability and solubility, which are commonly used as indicators of human intestinal absorption. Despite this, the nature and exact characteristics of the relationship between these parameters are not well understood. In this study a large dataset of human intestinal absorption was collated along with in vitro permeability, aqueous solubility, melting point, and maximum dose for the same compounds. The dataset allowed a permeability threshold to be established objectively to predict high or low intestinal absorption. Using this permeability threshold, classification decision trees incorporating a solubility-related parameter such as experimental or predicted solubility, or the melting point based absorption potential (MPbAP), along with structural molecular descriptors were developed and validated to predict oral absorption class. The decision trees were able to determine the individual roles of permeability and solubility in oral absorption process. Poorly permeable compounds with high solubility show low intestinal absorption, whereas poorly water soluble compounds with high or low permeability may have high intestinal absorption provided that they have certain molecular characteristics such as a small polar surface or specific topology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Profiling healthy eaters. Determining factors that predict healthy eating practices among Dutch adults.

PubMed

Swan, Emily; Bouwman, Laura; Hiddink, Gerrit Jan; Aarts, Noelle; Koelen, Maria

2015-06-01

Research has identified multiple factors that predict unhealthy eating practices. However what remains poorly understood are factors that promote healthy eating practices. This study aimed to determine a set of factors that represent a profile of healthy eaters. This research applied Antonovsky's salutogenic framework for health development to examine a set of factors that predict healthy eating in a cross-sectional study of Dutch adults. Data were analyzed from participants (n = 703) who completed the study's survey in January 2013. Logistic regression analysis was performed to test the association of survey factors on the outcome variable high dietary score. In the multivariate logistic regression model, five factors contributed significantly (p < .05) to the predictive ability of the overall model: being female; living with a partner; a strong sense of coherence (construct from the salutogenic framework), flexible restraint of eating, and self-efficacy for healthy eating. Findings complement what is already known of the factors that relate to poor eating practices. This can provide nutrition promotion with a more comprehensive picture of the factors that both support and hinder healthy eating practices. Future research should explore these factors to better understand their origins and mechanisms in relation to healthy eating practices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Prospective Investigation of Physical Health Outcomes in Abused and Neglected Children: New Findings From a 30-Year Follow-Up

PubMed Central

Czaja, Sally J.; Bentley, Tyrone; Johnson, Mark S.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We investigated whether abused and neglected children are at risk for negative physical health outcomes in adulthood. Methods. Using a prospective cohort design, we matched children (aged 0–11 years) with documented cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect from a US Midwestern county during 1967 through 1971 with nonmaltreated children. Both groups completed a medical status examination (measured health outcomes and blood tests) and interview during 2003 through 2005 (mean age = 41.2 years). Results. After adjusting for age, gender, and race, child maltreatment predicted above normal hemoglobin, lower albumin levels, poor peak airflow, and vision problems in adulthood. Physical abuse predicted malnutrition, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, and hemoglobin A1C. Neglect predicted hemoglobin A1C, albumin, poor peak airflow, and oral health and vision problems, Sexual abuse predicted hepatitis C and oral health problems. Additional controls for childhood socioeconomic status, adult socioeconomic status, unhealthy behaviors, smoking, and mental health problems play varying roles in attenuating or intensifying these relationships. Conclusions. Child abuse and neglect affect long-term health status—increasing risk for diabetes, lung disease, malnutrition, and vision problems—and support the need for early health care prevention. PMID:22515854

Predictors of treatment efficacy in a clinical trial of three psychosocial treatments for adolescent depression.

PubMed

Brent, D A; Kolko, D J; Birmaher, B; Baugher, M; Bridge, J; Roth, C; Holder, D

1998-09-01

To assess the predictors of treatment outcome across treatments, as well as those associated with differential treatment response. One hundred seven adolescent outpatients, aged 13 to 18 years, with DSM-III-R major depression were randomly assigned to one of three manual-based, brief (12 to 16 sessions) psychosocial treatments: cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), systemic-behavioral family therapy, or nondirective supportive therapy. Those with good and poor outcomes were compared. Continued depression was predicted by clinical referral (versus via advertisement) and was in part mediated by hopelessness. Other predictors of depression were comorbid anxiety disorder and higher levels of cognitive distortion and hopelessness at intake. Achievement of clinical remission was predicted by a higher level of self-reported depression. Poorer functional status was predicted by a higher level of initial interviewer-rated depression. Comorbid anxiety and maternal depressive symptoms predicted differential treatment efficacy. CBT's performance continued to be robust with respect to nondirective supportive therapy, even in the presence of the above-noted adverse predictors. Predictors of poor outcome may give clues as to how to boost treatment response. Subjects who come to treatment for clinical trials via advertisement (versus clinical referral) may show more favorable treatment responses. CBT is likely to be a robust intervention even in more complex and difficult-to-treat patients.

Effort-reward imbalance and work ability: cross-sectional and longitudinal findings from the Second German Sociomedical Panel of Employees

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Although data from longitudinal studies are sparse, effort-reward imbalance (ERI) seems to affect work ability. However, the potential pathway from restricted work ability to ERI must also be considered. Therefore, the aim of our study was to analyse cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between ERI and work ability and vice versa. Methods Data come from the Second German Sociomedical Panel of Employees. Logistic regression models were estimated to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations. The sample used to predict new cases of poor or moderate work ability was restricted to cases with good or excellent work ability at baseline. The sample used to predict new cases of ERI was restricted to persons without ERI at baseline. Results The cross-sectional analysis included 1501 full-time employed persons. The longitudinal analyses considered 600 participants with good or excellent baseline work ability and 666 participants without baseline ERI, respectively. After adjustment for socio-demographic variables, health-related behaviour and factors of the work environment, ERI was cross-sectionally associated with poor or moderate work ability (OR = 1.980; 95% CI: 1.428 to 2.747). Longitudinally, persons with ERI had 2.1 times higher odds of poor or moderate work ability after one year (OR = 2.093; 95% CI: 1.047 to 4.183). Conversely, persons with poor or moderate work ability had 2.6 times higher odds of an ERI after one year (OR = 2.573; 95% CI: 1.314 to 5.041). Conclusions Interventions that enable workers to cope with ERI or address indicators of ERI directly could promote the maintenance of work ability. Integration management programmes for persons with poor work ability should also consider their psychosocial demands. PMID:23067110

High urinary albumin/creatinine ratio at admission predicts poor functional outcome in patients with acute ischaemic stroke.

PubMed

Watanabe, Yoko; Suda, Satoshi; Kanamaru, Takuya; Katsumata, Toshiya; Okubo, Seiji; Kaneko, Tomohiro; Mii, Akiko; Sakai, Yukinao; Katayama, Yasuo; Kimura, Kazumi; Tsuruoka, Shuichi

2017-03-01

Albuminuria and a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are widely recognized indices of kidney dysfunction and have been linked to cardiovascular events, including stroke. We evaluated albuminuria, measured using the urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR), and the eGFR in the acute phase of ischaemic stroke, and investigated the clinical characteristics of ischaemic stroke patients with and those without kidney dysfunction. The study included 422 consecutive patients admitted between June 2010 and May 2012. General blood and urine examinations were performed at admission. Kidney dysfunction was defined as a low eGFR (<60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ), high albuminuria (≥30 mg/g creatinine), or both. Neurological severity was evaluated using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at admission and the modified Rankin scale (mRS) at discharge. A poor outcome was defined as a mRS score of 3-5 or death. The impacts of the eGFR and UACR on outcomes at discharge were evaluated using multiple logistic regression analysis. Kidney dysfunction was diagnosed in 278 of the 422 patients (65.9%). The eGFR was significantly lower and UACR was significantly higher in patients with a poor outcome than in those with a good outcome. In multivariate analyses performed after adjusting for confounding factors, UACR >31.2 mg/g creatinine (OR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.52-4.43; P = 0.0005) was independently associated with a poor outcome, while a low eGFR was not associated. A high UACR at admission may predict a poor outcome at discharge in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Contribution of Revised International Prognostic Scoring System Cytogenetics to Predict Outcome After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplantation for Myelodysplastic Syndromes: A Study From the French Society of Bone Marrow Transplantation and Cellular Therapy.

PubMed

Gauthier, Jordan; Damaj, Gandhi; Langlois, Carole; Robin, Marie; Michallet, Mauricette; Chevallier, Patrice; Beguin, Yves; N'guyen, Stéphanie; Bories, Pierre; Blaise, Didier; Cornillon, Jérôme; Clavert, Aline; Mohty, Mohamad; Huynh, Anne; Thiébaut-Bertrand, Anne; Vigouroux, Stéphane; Duhamel, Alain; Yakoub-Agha, Ibrahim

2015-08-01

The prognosis of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) after allogeneic stem cell transplantation is critically determined by cytogenetic abnormalities, as previously defined by International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) cytogenetics. It has been shown that a new cytogenetic classification, included in the IPSS-R (cytogenetic-IPSS-R [C-IPSS-R]), can better predict the outcome of untreated MDS patients. In this study, we assessed the impact of the IPSS-R cytogenetic score (C-IPSS-R) on the outcome of 367 MDS patients transplanted from HLA-identical siblings or HLA allele-matched unrelated donors. According to the C-IPSS-R, 178 patients (48%) fell in the good risk, 102 (28%) in the intermediate risk, 77 (21%) in the poor risk, and 10 (3%) in the very poor risk group. In multivariate analysis, after a median follow-up of 4 years, the poor and very poor-risk categories correlated with shorter overall survival (OS) (4-year OS, 32%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.59; P = 0.009 and OS, 10%; HR, 3.18; P = 0.002, respectively) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (CIR) (CIR, 52%; HR, 1.82; P = 0.004 and CIR, 60%; HR, 2.44; P = 0.060, respectively). Overall, the C-IPSS-R changed the IPSS cytogenetic risk only in 8% of cases but identified a new risk group, the very poor C-IPSS-R category, with dismal outcome after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (10% 4-year OS, 60% 4-year CIR). Posttransplantation maintenance therapy should be investigated in prospective trials for patients with high-risk C-IPSS-R karyotypes.

Association of Patient-Reported Health Status with Long-Term Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement: A Report from the STS/ACC TVT Registry™

PubMed Central

Arnold, Suzanne V.; Spertus, John A.; Vemulapalli, Sreekanth; Dai, Dadi; O’Brien, Sean M.; Baron, Suzanne J.; Kirtane, Ajay J.; Mack, Michael J.; Green, Philip; Reynolds, Matthew R.; Rumsfeld, John S.; Cohen, David J.

2015-01-01

Background Although transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) is an effective treatment for aortic stenosis, long-term mortality after TAVR remains high and challenging to predict. The Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) is a health status measure, assessed directly from patients, that integrates two clinically relevant factors (symptoms and functional status) that may predict TAVR outcomes. Methods and Results Among 7769 patients from 286 sites in the STS-ACC TVT Registry, we examined the association between pre-procedure (baseline) patient health status, as assessed by the KCCQ, and 1-year mortality after TAVR. The KCCQ Overall Summary Score was categorized as very poor: <25, poor: 25–49, fair: 50–74, or good: ≥75. Prior to TAVR, health status was rated as very poor in 28%, poor in 38%, fair in 24%, and good in 10%. Patients with worse health status were more likely to be female and had more comorbidities and higher STS mortality risk scores. Compared with those with good health status prior to TAVR, and after adjusting for a broad range of baseline covariates, patients with very poor health status had a 2-fold increased hazard of death over the first year after TAVR (adjusted HR 2.00, 95% CI 1.58–2.54), while those with poor and fair health status had intermediate outcomes (adjusted HRs 1.54, 95% CI 1.22–1.95 and 1.20, 95% CI 0.94–1.55, respectively). Conclusions In a national, contemporary practice cohort, worse pre-procedure patient health status, as assessed by the KCCQ, was associated with greater long-term mortality after TAVR. These results support the measurement and integration of the KCCQ into mortality risk assessments for patients considering TAVR. PMID:26643740

Management for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in elderly patients: the experience of a tertiary university hospital

PubMed Central

Kurumi, Hiroki; Takeda, Yohei; Yashima, Kazuo; Isomoto, Hajime

2017-01-01

Background Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is the main cause of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Endoscopic treatment and acid suppression with proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) are most important in the management of PUB and these treatments have reduced mortality. However, elderly patients sometimes have a poor prognostic outcome due to severe comorbidities. Methods A retrospective study was performed on 504 cases with acute non-variceal UGIB who were examined in our hospital, in order to reveal the risk factor of a poor outcome in elderly patients. Results Two hundred and thirty-four cases needed hemostasis; 11 cases had unsuccessful endoscopic treatments; 31 cases had re-bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis. Forty-three cases died within 30 days after the initial urgent endoscopy, but only seven cases died from bleeding. Elderly patients aged over 65 years had more severe comorbidities, and were prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents, more frequently, compared with non-elderly patients. The significant risk factor of needing hemostatic therapy was the taking of two or more NSAIDs, antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents. The most important risk of a poor outcome in elderly patients was various kinds of severe comorbidities. And so, it is important to predict such an outcome in these cases. AIMS65 is a simple and relatively useful scoring system that predicts the risk of a poor outcome in UGIB. High-score patients via AIMS65 were associated with a high mortality rate because of death from comorbidities. Conclusions The elderly patients in whom were prescribed two or more NSAIDs, antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents, should have UGIB prevented using a PPI. The most significant risk of a poor outcome in elderly patients was severe comorbidities. We recommend that elderly patients with UGIB should be estimated as having a poor outcome as soon as possible via the risk scoring system AIMS65. PMID:28616396

Management for non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding in elderly patients: the experience of a tertiary university hospital.

PubMed

Kawaguchi, Koichiro; Kurumi, Hiroki; Takeda, Yohei; Yashima, Kazuo; Isomoto, Hajime

2017-04-01

Peptic ulcer bleeding (PUB) is the main cause of non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). Endoscopic treatment and acid suppression with proton-pump inhibitors (PPIs) are most important in the management of PUB and these treatments have reduced mortality. However, elderly patients sometimes have a poor prognostic outcome due to severe comorbidities. A retrospective study was performed on 504 cases with acute non-variceal UGIB who were examined in our hospital, in order to reveal the risk factor of a poor outcome in elderly patients. Two hundred and thirty-four cases needed hemostasis; 11 cases had unsuccessful endoscopic treatments; 31 cases had re-bleeding after endoscopic hemostasis. Forty-three cases died within 30 days after the initial urgent endoscopy, but only seven cases died from bleeding. Elderly patients aged over 65 years had more severe comorbidities, and were prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents, more frequently, compared with non-elderly patients. The significant risk factor of needing hemostatic therapy was the taking of two or more NSAIDs, antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents. The most important risk of a poor outcome in elderly patients was various kinds of severe comorbidities. And so, it is important to predict such an outcome in these cases. AIMS65 is a simple and relatively useful scoring system that predicts the risk of a poor outcome in UGIB. High-score patients via AIMS65 were associated with a high mortality rate because of death from comorbidities. The elderly patients in whom were prescribed two or more NSAIDs, antiplatelet agents and/or anticoagulation agents, should have UGIB prevented using a PPI. The most significant risk of a poor outcome in elderly patients was severe comorbidities. We recommend that elderly patients with UGIB should be estimated as having a poor outcome as soon as possible via the risk scoring system AIMS65.

Indirect Effects of Social Skills on Health Through Stress and Loneliness.

PubMed

Segrin, Chris

2017-10-20

The social skills deficit vulnerability model predicts that people with inadequate social skills are at risk for a range of psychosocial problems, especially when confronted with stress. People with poor social skills often experience stress and loneliness and these two constructs were tested as potential pathways by which the poor social skills confer a risk for compromised mental and physical health. An online survey was completed by 775 adults, aged 18-91. The sample matched national demographics for race/ethnicity and age, among those over 18. Structural equation modeling revealed indirect effects of social skills on both mental and physical health through both stress and loneliness. The models showed that poor social skills were associated with poor mental and physical health through elevated stress and increased loneliness. The findings reveal that social skills deficits are associated with physical as well as mental health problems.

Epigenome-wide cross-tissue predictive modeling and comparison of cord blood and placental methylation in a birth cohort

PubMed Central

De Carli, Margherita M; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Trevisi, Letizia; Pantic, Ivan; Brennan, Kasey JM; Hacker, Michele R; Loudon, Holly; Brunst, Kelly J; Wright, Robert O; Wright, Rosalind J; Just, Allan C

2017-01-01

Aim: We compared predictive modeling approaches to estimate placental methylation using cord blood methylation. Materials & methods: We performed locus-specific methylation prediction using both linear regression and support vector machine models with 174 matched pairs of 450k arrays. Results: At most CpG sites, both approaches gave poor predictions in spite of a misleading improvement in array-wide correlation. CpG islands and gene promoters, but not enhancers, were the genomic contexts where the correlation between measured and predicted placental methylation levels achieved higher values. We provide a list of 714 sites where both models achieved an R2 ≥0.75. Conclusion: The present study indicates the need for caution in interpreting cross-tissue predictions. Few methylation sites can be predicted between cord blood and placenta. PMID:28234020

Interpolation/extrapolation technique with application to hypervelocity impact of space debris

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rule, William K.

1992-01-01

A new technique for the interpolation/extrapolation of engineering data is described. The technique easily allows for the incorporation of additional independent variables, and the most suitable data in the data base is automatically used for each prediction. The technique provides diagnostics for assessing the reliability of the prediction. Two sets of predictions made for known 5-degree-of-freedom, 15-parameter functions using the new technique produced an average coefficient of determination of 0.949. Here, the technique is applied to the prediction of damage to the Space Station from hypervelocity impact of space debris. A new set of impact data is presented for this purpose. Reasonable predictions for bumper damage were obtained, but predictions of pressure wall and multilayer insulation damage were poor.

Predicting Great Lakes fish yields: tools and constraints

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lewis, C.A.; Schupp, D.H.; Taylor, W.W.; Collins, J.J.; Hatch, Richard W.

1987-01-01

Prediction of yield is a critical component of fisheries management. The development of sound yield prediction methodology and the application of the results of yield prediction are central to the evolution of strategies to achieve stated goals for Great Lakes fisheries and to the measurement of progress toward those goals. Despite general availability of species yield models, yield prediction for many Great Lakes fisheries has been poor due to the instability of the fish communities and the inadequacy of available data. A host of biological, institutional, and societal factors constrain both the development of sound predictions and their application to management. Improved predictive capability requires increased stability of Great Lakes fisheries through rehabilitation of well-integrated communities, improvement of data collection, data standardization and information-sharing mechanisms, and further development of the methodology for yield prediction. Most important is the creation of a better-informed public that will in turn establish the political will to do what is required.

Assessment of intracranial collaterals on CT angiography in anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Yeo, L L L; Paliwal, P; Teoh, H L; Seet, R C; Chan, B P; Ting, E; Venketasubramanian, N; Leow, W K; Wakerley, B; Kusama, Y; Rathakrishnan, R; Sharma, V K

2015-02-01

Intracranial collaterals influence the prognosis of patients treated with intravenous tissue plasminogen activator in acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke. We compared the methods of scoring collaterals on pre-tPA brain CT angiography for predicting functional outcomes in acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke. Two hundred consecutive patients with acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke treated with IV-tPA during 2010-2012 were included. Two independent neuroradiologists evaluated intracranial collaterals by using the Miteff system, Maas system, the modified Tan scale, and the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score 20-point methodology. Good and extremely poor outcomes at 3 months were defined by modified Rankin Scale scores of 0-1 and 5-6 points, respectively. Factors associated with good outcome on univariable analysis were younger age, female sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, small infarct core (ASPECTS ≥8), vessel recanalization, lower pre-tPA NIHSS scores, and good collaterals according to Tan methodology, ASPECTS methodology, and Miteff methodology. On multivariable logistic regression, only lower NIHSS scores (OR, 1.186 per point; 95% CI, 1.079-1.302; P = .001), recanalization (OR, 5.599; 95% CI, 1.560-20.010; P = .008), and good collaterals by the Miteff method (OR, 3.341; 95% CI, 1.203-5.099; P = .014) were independent predictors of good outcome. Poor collaterals by the Miteff system (OR, 2.592; 95% CI, 1.113-6.038; P = .027), Maas system (OR, 2.580; 95% CI, 1.075-6.187; P = .034), and ASPECTS method ≤5 points (OR, 2.685; 95% CI, 1.156-6.237; P = .022) were independent predictors of extremely poor outcomes. Only the Miteff scoring system for intracranial collaterals is reliable for predicting favorable outcome in thrombolyzed acute anterior circulation ischemic stroke. However, poor outcomes can be predicted by most of the existing methods of scoring intracranial collaterals. © 2015 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Effective secondary prevention through cardiac rehabilitation after coronary revascularization and predictors of poor adherence to lifestyle modification and medication. Results of the ICAROS Survey.

PubMed

Griffo, Raffaele; Ambrosetti, Marco; Tramarin, Roberto; Fattirolli, Francesco; Temporelli, Pier Luigi; Vestri, Anna Rita; De Feo, Stefania; Tavazzi, Luigi

2013-08-20

Secondary prevention is a priority after coronary revascularization. We investigate the impact of a cardiac rehabilitation (CR) program on lifestyle, risk factors and medication modifications and analyze predictors of poor behavioral changes and events in patients after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Multicenter (n=62), prospective, longitudinal survey in post-CABG or -PCI consecutive patients after a comprehensive CR program. Cardiac risk factors, lifestyle habits, medication and 1 year cardiovascular events were collected. Logistic regression analyzed the association between risk factors, events and predictors of non-adherence to treatment and lifestyle. At 1 year, of the 1262 patients (66 ± 10 years, CABG 69%, PCI 31%), 94% were taking antiplatelet agents (vs. 91.8% at CR admission and 91.7% at CR discharge, p=ns), 87% statins (vs. 67.5%, p<.0001, and 86.3%, p=ns), 80.7% beta-blockers (vs. 67.4%, p<.0001, and 88.8%, p=ns), and 81.1% ACE inhibitors (vs. 57.5% p<.0001, and 77.7%, p=ns). 89.9% of the patients showed good adherence to treatment, 72% adhered to diet and 51% to exercise recommendations; 74% of smokers stopped smoking. Younger age was predictive of smoking resumption (OR 8.9, CI 3.5-22.8). Pre-event sedentary lifestyle (OR 3.3, CI 1.3-8.7) was predictive of poor diet. Older patients with comorbidity (OR 3.1; CI, 1.8-5.2) tended to persist in sedentary lifestyle and discontinue therapy and diet recommendations. Age, diabetes, smoking and PCI indication were predictors of recurrent CV events which occurred in 142 patients. Participation in CR results in excellent treatment after revascularization, as well as a good lifestyle and medication adherence at 1 year and provides further confirmation of the benefit of secondary prevention. Several clinical characteristics may predict poor behavioral changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lyme disease risk not amplified in a species-poor vertebrate community: similar Borrelia burgdorferi tick infection prevalence and OspC genotype frequencies.

PubMed

States, S L; Brinkerhoff, R J; Carpi, G; Steeves, T K; Folsom-O'Keefe, C; DeVeaux, M; Diuk-Wasser, M A

2014-10-01

The effect of biodiversity declines on human health is currently debated, but empirical assessments are lacking. Lyme disease provides a model system to assess relationships between biodiversity and human disease because the etiologic agent, Borrelia burgdorferi, is transmitted in the United States by the generalist black-legged tick (Ixodes scapularis) among a wide range of mammalian and avian hosts. The 'dilution effect' hypothesis predicts that species-poor host communities dominated by white-footed mice (Peromyscus leucopus) will pose the greatest human risk because P. leucopus infects the largest numbers of ticks, resulting in higher human exposure to infected I. scapularis ticks. P. leucopus-dominated communities are also expected to maintain a higher frequency of those B. burgdorferi outer surface protein C (ospC) genotypes that this host species more efficiently transmits ('multiple niche polymorphism' hypothesis). Because some of these genotypes are human invasive, an additive increase in human disease risk is expected in species-poor settings. We assessed these theoretical predictions by comparing I. scapularis nymphal infection prevalence, density of infected nymphs and B. burgdorferi genotype diversity at sites on Block Island, RI, where P. leucopus dominates the mammalian host community, to species-diverse sites in northeastern Connecticut. We found no support for the dilution effect hypothesis; B. burgdorferi nymphal infection prevalence was similar between island and mainland and the density of B. burgdorferi infected nymphs was higher on the mainland, contrary to what is predicted by the dilution effect hypothesis. Evidence for the multiple niche polymorphism hypothesis was mixed: there was lower ospC genotype diversity at island than mainland sites, but no overrepresentation of genotypes with higher fitness in P. leucopus or that are more invasive in humans. We conclude that other mechanisms explain similar nymphal infection prevalence in both communities and that high ospC genotype diversity can be maintained in both species-poor and species-rich communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How outcome prediction could affect patient decision making in knee replacements: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Barlow, Timothy; Scott, Patricia; Griffin, Damian; Realpe, Alba

2016-07-22

There is approximately a 17 % dissatisfaction rate with knee replacements. Calls for tools that can pre-operatively identify patients at risk of being dissatisfied have been widespread. However, it is not known how to present such information to patients, how it would affect their decision making process, and at what part of the pathway such a tool should be used. Using focus groups involving 12 participants and in-depth interviews with 10 participants, we examined how individual predictions of outcome could affect patients' decision making by providing fictitious predictions to patients at different stages of treatment. A thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Our results demonstrate several interesting findings. Firstly, patients who have received information from friends and family are unwilling to adjust their expectation of outcome down (i.e. to a worse outcome), but highly willing to adjust it up (to a better outcome). This is an example of the optimism bias, and suggests that the effect on expectation of a poor outcome prediction would be blunted. Secondly, patients generally wanted a "bottom line" outcome, rather than lots of detail. Thirdly, patients who were earlier in their treatment for osteoarthritis were more likely to find the information useful, and it was more likely to affect their decision, than patients later in their treatment pathway. This research suggest that an outcome prediction tool would have most effect targeted towards people at the start of their treatment pathway, with a "bottom line" prediction of outcome. However, any effect on expectation and decision making of a poor outcome prediction is likely to be blunted by the optimism bias. These findings merit replication in a larger sample size.

STITCHER: Dynamic assembly of likely amyloid and prion β-structures from secondary structure predictions

PubMed Central

Bryan, Allen W; O’Donnell, Charles W; Menke, Matthew; Cowen, Lenore J; Lindquist, Susan; Berger, Bonnie

2012-01-01

The supersecondary structure of amyloids and prions, proteins of intense clinical and biological interest, are difficult to determine by standard experimental or computational means. In addition, significant conformational heterogeneity is known or suspected to exist in many amyloid fibrils. Previous work has demonstrated that probability-based prediction of discrete β-strand pairs can offer insight into these structures. Here, we devise a system of energetic rules that can be used to dynamically assemble these discrete β-strand pairs into complete amyloid β-structures. The STITCHER algorithm progressively ‘stitches’ strand-pairs into full β-sheets based on a novel free-energy model, incorporating experimentally observed amino-acid side-chain stacking contributions, entropic estimates, and steric restrictions for amyloidal parallel β-sheet construction. A dynamic program computes the top 50 structures and returns both the highest scoring structure and a consensus structure taken by polling this list for common discrete elements. Putative structural heterogeneity can be inferred from sequence regions that compose poorly. Predictions show agreement with experimental models of Alzheimer’s amyloid beta peptide and the Podospora anserina Het-s prion. Predictions of the HET-s homolog HET-S also reflect experimental observations of poor amyloid formation. We put forward predicted structures for the yeast prion Sup35, suggesting N-terminal structural stability enabled by tyrosine ladders, and C-terminal heterogeneity. Predictions for the Rnq1 prion and alpha-synuclein are also given, identifying a similar mix of homogenous and heterogeneous secondary structure elements. STITCHER provides novel insight into the energetic basis of amyloid structure, provides accurate structure predictions, and can help guide future experimental studies. Proteins 2012. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:22095906

STITCHER: Dynamic assembly of likely amyloid and prion β-structures from secondary structure predictions.

PubMed

Bryan, Allen W; O'Donnell, Charles W; Menke, Matthew; Cowen, Lenore J; Lindquist, Susan; Berger, Bonnie

2012-02-01

The supersecondary structure of amyloids and prions, proteins of intense clinical and biological interest, are difficult to determine by standard experimental or computational means. In addition, significant conformational heterogeneity is known or suspected to exist in many amyloid fibrils. Previous work has demonstrated that probability-based prediction of discrete β-strand pairs can offer insight into these structures. Here, we devise a system of energetic rules that can be used to dynamically assemble these discrete β-strand pairs into complete amyloid β-structures. The STITCHER algorithm progressively 'stitches' strand-pairs into full β-sheets based on a novel free-energy model, incorporating experimentally observed amino-acid side-chain stacking contributions, entropic estimates, and steric restrictions for amyloidal parallel β-sheet construction. A dynamic program computes the top 50 structures and returns both the highest scoring structure and a consensus structure taken by polling this list for common discrete elements. Putative structural heterogeneity can be inferred from sequence regions that compose poorly. Predictions show agreement with experimental models of Alzheimer's amyloid beta peptide and the Podospora anserina Het-s prion. Predictions of the HET-s homolog HET-S also reflect experimental observations of poor amyloid formation. We put forward predicted structures for the yeast prion Sup35, suggesting N-terminal structural stability enabled by tyrosine ladders, and C-terminal heterogeneity. Predictions for the Rnq1 prion and alpha-synuclein are also given, identifying a similar mix of homogenous and heterogeneous secondary structure elements. STITCHER provides novel insight into the energetic basis of amyloid structure, provides accurate structure predictions, and can help guide future experimental studies. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Adjusted Clinical Groups: Predictive Accuracy for Medicaid Enrollees in Three States

PubMed Central

Adams, E. Kathleen; Bronstein, Janet M.; Raskind-Hood, Cheryl

2002-01-01

Actuarial split-sample methods were used to assess predictive accuracy of adjusted clinical groups (ACGs) for Medicaid enrollees in Georgia, Mississippi (lagging in managed care penetration), and California. Accuracy for two non-random groups—high-cost and located in urban poor areas—was assessed. Measures for random groups were derived with and without short-term enrollees to assess the effect of turnover on predictive accuracy. ACGs improved predictive accuracy for high-cost conditions in all States, but did so only for those in Georgia's poorest urban areas. Higher and more unpredictable expenses of short-term enrollees moderated the predictive power of ACGs. This limitation was significant in Mississippi due in part, to that State's very high proportion of short-term enrollees. PMID:12545598

Multivariate Analysis of Seismic Field Data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Alam, M. Kathleen

1999-06-01

This report includes the details of the model building procedure and prediction of seismic field data. Principal Components Regression, a multivariate analysis technique, was used to model seismic data collected as two pieces of equipment were cycled on and off. Models built that included only the two pieces of equipment of interest had trouble predicting data containing signals not included in the model. Evidence for poor predictions came from the prediction curves as well as spectral F-ratio plots. Once the extraneous signals were included in the model, predictions improved dramatically. While Principal Components Regression performed well for the present datamore » sets, the present data analysis suggests further work will be needed to develop more robust modeling methods as the data become more complex.« less

Conditional Toxicity Value (CTV) Predictor: An In Silico Approach for Generating Quantitative Risk Estimates for Chemicals.

PubMed

Wignall, Jessica A; Muratov, Eugene; Sedykh, Alexander; Guyton, Kathryn Z; Tropsha, Alexander; Rusyn, Ivan; Chiu, Weihsueh A

2018-05-01

Human health assessments synthesize human, animal, and mechanistic data to produce toxicity values that are key inputs to risk-based decision making. Traditional assessments are data-, time-, and resource-intensive, and they cannot be developed for most environmental chemicals owing to a lack of appropriate data. As recommended by the National Research Council, we propose a solution for predicting toxicity values for data-poor chemicals through development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models. We used a comprehensive database of chemicals with existing regulatory toxicity values from U.S. federal and state agencies to develop quantitative QSAR models. We compared QSAR-based model predictions to those based on high-throughput screening (HTS) assays. QSAR models for noncancer threshold-based values and cancer slope factors had cross-validation-based Q 2 of 0.25-0.45, mean model errors of 0.70-1.11 log 10 units, and applicability domains covering >80% of environmental chemicals. Toxicity values predicted from QSAR models developed in this study were more accurate and precise than those based on HTS assays or mean-based predictions. A publicly accessible web interface to make predictions for any chemical of interest is available at http://toxvalue.org. An in silico tool that can predict toxicity values with an uncertainty of an order of magnitude or less can be used to quickly and quantitatively assess risks of environmental chemicals when traditional toxicity data or human health assessments are unavailable. This tool can fill a critical gap in the risk assessment and management of data-poor chemicals. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2998.

Predictive factors of tumor control and survival after radiosurgery for local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Chua, Daniel T T; Sham, Jonathan S T; Hung, Kwan-Ngai; Leung, Lucullus H T; Au, Gordon K H

2006-12-01

Stereotactic radiosurgery has been employed as a salvage treatment of local failures of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). To identify patients that would benefit from radiosurgery, we reviewed our data with emphasis on factors that predicted treatment outcome. A total of 48 patients with local failures of NPC were treated by stereotactic radiosurgery between March 1996 and February 2005. Radiosurgery was administered using a modified linear accelerator with single or multiple isocenters to deliver a median dose of 12.5 Gy to the target periphery. Median follow-up was 54 months. Five-year local failure-free probability after radiosurgery was 47.2% and 5-year overall survival rate was 46.9%. Neuroendocrine complications occurred in 27% of patients but there were no treatment-related deaths. Time interval from primary radiotherapy, retreatment T stage, prior local failures and tumor volume were significant predictive factors of local control and/or survival whereas age was of marginal significance in predicting survival. A radiosurgery prognostic scoring system was designed based on these predictive factors. Five-year local failure-free probabilities in patients with good, intermediate and poor prognostic scores were 100%, 42.5%, and 9.6%. The corresponding five-year overall survival rates were 100%, 51.1%, and 0%. Important factors that predicted tumor control and survival after radiosurgery were identified. Patients with good prognostic score should be treated by radiosurgery in view of the excellent results. Patients with intermediate prognostic score may also be treated by radiosurgery but those with poor prognostic score should receive other salvage treatments.

Prognostic Cell Biological Markers in Cervical Cancer Patients Primarily Treated With (Chemo)radiation: A Systematic Review

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Noordhuis, Maartje G.; Eijsink, Jasper J.H.; Roossink, Frank

2011-02-01

The aim of this study was to systematically review the prognostic and predictive significance of cell biological markers in cervical cancer patients primarily treated with (chemo)radiation. A PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane literature search was performed. Studies describing a relation between a cell biological marker and survival in {>=}50 cervical cancer patients primarily treated with (chemo)radiation were selected. Study quality was assessed, and studies with a quality score of 4 or lower were excluded. Cell biological markers were clustered on biological function, and the prognostic and predictive significance of these markers was described. In total, 42 studies concerning 82 cell biologicalmore » markers were included in this systematic review. In addition to cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) and serum squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-ag) levels, markers associated with poor prognosis were involved in epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling (EGFR and C-erbB-2) and in angiogenesis and hypoxia (carbonic anhydrase 9 and hypoxia-inducible factor-1{alpha}). Epidermal growth factor receptor and C-erbB-2 were also associated with poor response to (chemo)radiation. In conclusion, EGFR signaling is associated with poor prognosis and response to therapy in cervical cancer patients primarily treated with (chemo)radiation, whereas markers involved in angiogenesis and hypoxia, COX-2, and serum SCC-ag levels are associated with a poor prognosis. Therefore, targeting these pathways in combination with chemoradiation may improve survival in advanced-stage cervical cancer patients.« less

A UK survey of driving behaviour, fatigue, risk taking and road traffic accidents

PubMed Central

Smith, Andrew P

2016-01-01

Objective The aim of the present research was to examine associations between poor driving behaviour (DB), driving when fatigued (DF), risk taking (RT) and road traffic accidents (RTAs). Design The study involved a cross-sectional online survey of clients of an insurance company. The survey measured DB (speeding, distraction, lapses of attention and aggression), RT and frequency of driving when fatigued (DF, driving late at night, prolonged driving, driving after a demanding working day and driving with a cold). Demographic, lifestyle, job characteristics and psychosocial factors were also measured and used as covariates. Setting Cardiff, UK. Sample 3000 clients of an insurance company agreed to participate in the study, and 2856 completed the survey (68% woman, 32% man; mean age: 34 years, range 18–74 years). Main outcome measures The outcomes were RTAs (requiring medical attention; not requiring medical attention), where the person was the driver. Results Factor analyses showed that DB, RT and fatigue loaded on independent factors. Logistic regressions showed that poor DB, frequently DF and taking risks predicted medical and non-medical RTAs. These effects were additive and those who reported poor DB, driving when fatigue and taking risks were twice as likely to have an RTA. These effects remained significant when demographic, lifestyle, medical, driving, work and psychosocial factors were covaried. Conclusions Poor DB, DF and RT predict RTAs. There are now short measuring instruments that can assess these, and driver education programmes must increase awareness of these risk factors. PMID:27540100

A prospective longitudinal study of children’s theory of mind and adolescent involvement in bullying

PubMed Central

Sania, Shakoor; Jaffee, Sara R; Bowes, Lucy; Ouellet-Morin, Isabelle; Andreou, Penelope; Happé, Francesca; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Arseneault, Louise

2011-01-01

Background Theory of mind allows the understanding and prediction of other people’s behaviours based on their mental states (e.g. beliefs). It is important for healthy social relationships and thus may contribute towards children’s involvement in bullying. The present study investigated whether children involved in bullying during early adolescence had poor theory of mind in childhood. Method Participants were members of the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally-representative sample of 2,232 children and their families. Families were visited by the authors when children were 5, 7, 10 and 12 years. Theory of mind was assessed when the children were 5 years using eight standardized tasks. Identification of those children who were involved in bullying as victims, bullies and bully-victims using mothers’, teachers’ and children’s reports was carried out when they were 12 years’ old. Results Poor theory of mind predicted becoming a victim (effect size, d=0.26), bully (d=0.25) or bully-victim (d=0.44) in early adolescence. These associations remained for victims and bully-victims when child-specific (e.g., IQ) and family factors (e.g., child maltreatment) were controlled for. Emotional and behavioural problems during middle childhood did not modify the association between poor theory of mind and adolescent bullying experiences. Conclusion Identifying and supporting children with poor theory of mind early in life could help reduce their vulnerability for involvement in bullying and thus limit its adverse effects on mental health. PMID:22081896

Singing with yourself: evidence for an inverse modeling account of poor-pitch singing.

PubMed

Pfordresher, Peter Q; Mantell, James T

2014-05-01

Singing is a ubiquitous and culturally significant activity that humans engage in from an early age. Nevertheless, some individuals - termed poor-pitch singers - are unable to match target pitches within a musical semitone while singing. In the experiments reported here, we tested whether poor-pitch singing deficits would be reduced when individuals imitate recordings of themselves as opposed to recordings of other individuals. This prediction was based on the hypothesis that poor-pitch singers have not developed an abstract "inverse model" of the auditory-vocal system and instead must rely on sensorimotor associations that they have experienced directly, which is true for sequences an individual has already produced. In three experiments, participants, both accurate and poor-pitch singers, were better able to imitate sung recordings of themselves than sung recordings of other singers. However, this self-advantage was enhanced for poor-pitch singers. These effects were not a byproduct of self-recognition (Experiment 1), vocal timbre (Experiment 2), or the absolute pitch of target recordings (i.e., the advantage remains when recordings are transposed, Experiment 3). Results support the conceptualization of poor-pitch singing as an imitative deficit resulting from a deficient inverse model of the auditory-vocal system with respect to pitch. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictors of hopelessness among clinically depressed youth.

PubMed

Becker-Weidman, Emily G; Reinecke, Mark A; Jacobs, Rachel H; Martinovich, Zoran; Silva, Susan G; March, John S

2009-05-01

Factors that distinguish depressed individuals who become hopeless from those who do not are poorly understood. In this study, predictors of hopelessness were examined in a sample of 439 clinically depressed adolescents participating in the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS). The total score of the Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) was used to assess hopelessness at baseline. Multiple regression and logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the extent to which variables were associated with hopelessness and determine which cluster of measures best predicted clinically significantly hopelessness. Hopelessness was associated with greater depression severity, poor social problem-solving, cognitive distortions, and family conflict. View of self, view of the world, internal attributional style, need for social approval, positive problem-solving orientation, and family problems consistently emerged as the best predictors of hopelessness in depressed youth. Cognitive and familial factors predict those depressed youth who have high levels of hopelessness.

Structured interview versus self-report test vantages for the assessment of personality pathology in cocaine dependence.

PubMed

Marlowe, D B; Husband, S D; Bonieskie, L M; Kirby, K C; Platt, J J

1997-01-01

The study compared structured interview (SCID-II) and self-report test (MCMI-II) vantages for the detection and characterization of personality pathology among 144 urban, poor, cocaine-addicted individuals seeking outpatient treatment. Diagnostic agreement was inadequate for most disorders, and the instruments at best shared only modest common variance. Positive predictive power was poor for all MCMI-II scales, though negative predictive power was good to excellent. This lends support for the use of the MCMI-II as a screening measure to rule out Axis II disorders; however, confirmation of positive diagnoses will require follow-up interview assessment. Future development of self-report personality inventories for substance abusers should focus on controlling for the acute dysphoric effects of drug use and related dysfunction, expanding attention to Cluster B content domains, and incorporating more objective criteria for assessing paranoia and "odd/eccentric" traits.

The role of emotional dysregulation in concurrent eating disorders and substance use disorders.

PubMed

Spence, Sarah; Courbasson, Christine

2012-12-01

This study explored the role of emotional dysregulation in 178 participants with concurrent EDs and SUDs. We ran two path analyses: Model 1 predicted negative mood regulation from alexithymia, and Model 2 predicted emotional eating from negative mood regulation. For Model 1, difficulty identifying and describing feelings was related to poor coping expectancies, while externally-oriented thinking was related to greater coping expectancies. For Model 2, poor coping expectancies in general were related to emotional eating, while greater coping expectancies in relation to behavior (i.e., the belief that some behavior or action can alleviate one's negative affect) also resulted in increased emotional eating. This finding suggests that there may be differences in the purpose of emotional eating; some people may believe that emotional eating can be used as an effective coping strategy to deal with negative affect. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phenomenological evidence for two types of paranoia.

PubMed

Chadwick, P D J; Trower, P; Juusti-Butler, T-M; Maguire, N

2005-01-01

Two types of paranoia have been identified, namely persecution (or 'Poor Me') paranoia, and punishment (or 'Bad Me') paranoia. This research tests predicted differences in phenomenology--specifically, in person evaluative beliefs, self-esteem, depression, anxiety, and anger. Fifty-three people with current paranoid beliefs were classified as Poor Me, Bad Me, or neither (classification was reliable). Key dependent variables were measured. All predictions were supported, except the one relating to anger, where the two groups did not differ. The Bad Me group had lower self-esteem, more negative self-evaluative thinking, lower negative evaluations about others, higher depression and anxiety. Importantly, the differences in self-esteem and self-evaluations were not fully accounted for by differences in depression. Data support the presence of two distinct topographies of paranoia. Future research is needed to explore the theory further and examine clinical implications. Copyright 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel

Tricuspid valve dysplasia with severe tricuspid regurgitation: fetal pulmonary artery size predicts lung viability in the presence of small lung volumes.

PubMed

Nathan, A T; Marino, B S; Dominguez, T; Tabbutt, S; Nicolson, S; Donaghue, D D; Spray, T L; Rychik, J

2010-01-01

Congenital tricuspid valve disease (Ebstein's anomaly, tricuspid valve dysplasia) with severe tricuspid regurgitation and cardiomegaly is associated with poor prognosis. Fetal echocardiography can accurately measure right atrial enlargement, which is associated with a poor prognosis in the fetus with tricuspid valve disease. Fetal lung volumetric assessments have been used in an attempt to predict viability of fetuses using ultrasonogram and prenatal MRI. We describe a fetus with tricuspid dysplasia, severe tricuspid regurgitation, right atrial enlargement and markedly reduced lung volumes. The early gestational onset of cardiomegaly with bilateral lung compression raised the possibility of severe lung hypoplasia with decreased broncho-alveolar development. Use of fetal echocardiography with measurement of pulmonary artery size combined with prenatal MRI scanning of lung volumes resulted in an improved understanding of this anomaly and directed the management strategy towards a successful Fontan circulation. 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Familial risk moderates the association between sleep and zBMI in children.

PubMed

Bagley, Erika J; El-Sheikh, Mona

2013-08-01

A cumulative risk approach was used to examine the moderating effect of familial risk factors on relations between actigraphy-based sleep quantity (minutes) and quality (efficiency) and sex- and age-standardized body mass index (zBMI). The sample included 124 boys and 104 girls with a mean age of 10.41 years (SD = 0.67). Children wore actigraphs for 1 week, and their height and weight were assessed in the lab. After controlling for potential confounds, multiple regression analyses indicated that sleep minutes predicted children's zBMI and that both sleep minutes and efficiency interacted with family risk in the prediction of zBMI. The association between poor sleep and zBMI was especially evident for children exposed to higher levels of family risk. Findings suggest that not all children who exhibit poor sleep are at equal risk for higher zBMI and that familial and contextual conditions need to be considered in this link.

Decreased expression of IDH1-R132H correlates with poor survival in gastrointestinal cancer.

PubMed

Li, Jieying; Huang, Jianfei; Huang, Fang; Jin, Qing; Zhu, Huijun; Wang, Xudong; Chen, Meng

2016-11-08

Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH1) is an NADP-dependent enzyme that catalyzes the decarboxylation of isocitrate to alpha-ketoglutarate. The IDH1-R132H mutation predicts a better clinical outcome for glioma patients, and the expression of IDH1-R132H correlates with a favorable outcome in patients with brain tumors. Here, we investigated IDH1-R132H expression in both gastric (n=526) and colorectal (n=399) tissues by performing immunohistochemistry analyses on tissue microarrays. We also tested whether IDH1-R132H expression correlated with various clinical parameters. In both gastric and colorectal cancer, expression of IDH1-R132H was associated with tumor stage. Patients with low IDH1-R132H expression had a poor overall survival. Our data indicate that IDH1-R132H expression could be used as a predictive marker of prognosis for patients with gastrointestinal cancer.

Decreased expression of IDH1-R132H correlates with poor survival in gastrointestinal cancer

PubMed Central

Li, Jieying; Huang, Jianfei; Huang, Fang; Jin, Qing; Zhu, Huijun; Wang, Xudong; Chen, Meng

2016-01-01

Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH1) is an NADP-dependent enzyme that catalyzes the decarboxylation of isocitrate to alpha-ketoglutarate. The IDH1-R132H mutation predicts a better clinical outcome for glioma patients, and the expression of IDH1-R132H correlates with a favorable outcome in patients with brain tumors. Here, we investigated IDH1-R132H expression in both gastric (n=526) and colorectal (n=399) tissues by performing immunohistochemistry analyses on tissue microarrays. We also tested whether IDH1-R132H expression correlated with various clinical parameters. In both gastric and colorectal cancer, expression of IDH1-R132H was associated with tumor stage. Patients with low IDH1-R132H expression had a poor overall survival. Our data indicate that IDH1-R132H expression could be used as a predictive marker of prognosis for patients with gastrointestinal cancer. PMID:27655638

The role of clinical variables, neuropsychological performance and SLC6A4 and COMT gene polymorphisms on the prediction of early response to fluoxetine in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Gudayol-Ferré, Esteve; Herrera-Guzmán, Ixchel; Camarena, Beatriz; Cortés-Penagos, Carlos; Herrera-Abarca, Jorge E; Martínez-Medina, Patricia; Cruz, David; Hernández, Sandra; Genis, Alma; Carrillo-Guerrero, Mariana Y; Avilés Reyes, Rubén; Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan

2010-12-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is treated with antidepressants, but only between 50% and 70% of the patients respond to the initial treatment. Several authors suggested different factors that could predict antidepressant response, including clinical, psychophysiological, neuropsychological, neuroimaging, and genetic variables. However, these different predictors present poor prognostic sensitivity and specificity by themselves. The aim of our work is to study the possible role of clinical variables, neuropsychological performance, and the 5HTTLPR, rs25531, and val108/58Met COMT polymorphisms in the prediction of the response to fluoxetine after 4weeks of treatment in a sample of patient with MDD. 64 patients with MDD were genotyped according to the above-mentioned polymorphisms, and were clinically and neuropsychologically assessed before a 4-week fluoxetine treatment. Fluoxetine response was assessed by using the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale. We carried out a binary logistic regression model for the potential predictive variables. Out of the clinical variables studied, only the number of anxiety disorders comorbid with MDD have predicted a poor response to the treatment. A combination of a good performance in variables of attention and low performance in planning could predict a good response to fluoxetine in patients with MDD. None of the genetic variables studied had predictive value in our model. The possible placebo effect has not been controlled. Our study is focused on response prediction but not in remission prediction. Our work suggests that the combination of the number of comorbid anxiety disorders, an attentional variable, and two planning variables makes it possible to correctly classify 82% of the depressed patients who responded to the treatment with fluoxetine, and 74% of the patients who did not respond to that treatment. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Predicting Time to Hospital Discharge for Extremely Preterm Infants

PubMed Central

Hintz, Susan R.; Bann, Carla M.; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Cotten, C. Michael; Das, Abhik; Higgins, Rosemary D.

2010-01-01

As extremely preterm infant mortality rates have decreased, concerns regarding resource utilization have intensified. Accurate models to predict time to hospital discharge could aid in resource planning, family counseling, and perhaps stimulate quality improvement initiatives. Objectives For infants <27 weeks estimated gestational age (EGA), to develop, validate and compare several models to predict time to hospital discharge based on time-dependent covariates, and based on the presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective analysis of infants <27 weeks EGA, born 7/2002-12/2005 and surviving to discharge from a NICHD Neonatal Research Network site. Time to discharge was modeled as continuous (postmenstrual age at discharge, PMAD), and categorical variables (“Early” and “Late” discharge). Three linear and logistic regression models with time-dependent covariate inclusion were developed (perinatal factors only, perinatal+early neonatal factors, perinatal+early+later factors). Models for Early and Late discharge using the cumulative presence of 5 key risk factors as predictors were also evaluated. Predictive capabilities were compared using coefficient of determination (R2) for linear models, and AUC of ROC curve for logistic models. Results Data from 2254 infants were included. Prediction of PMAD was poor, with only 38% of variation explained by linear models. However, models incorporating later clinical characteristics were more accurate in predicting “Early” or “Late” discharge (full models: AUC 0.76-0.83 vs. perinatal factor models: AUC 0.56-0.69). In simplified key risk factors models, predicted probabilities for Early and Late discharge compared favorably with observed rates. Furthermore, the AUC (0.75-0.77) were similar to those of models including the full factor set. Conclusions Prediction of Early or Late discharge is poor if only perinatal factors are considered, but improves substantially with knowledge of later-occurring morbidities. Prediction using a few key risk factors is comparable to full models, and may offer a clinically applicable strategy. PMID:20008430

Precipitation forecasts for rainfall runoff predictions. A case study in poorly gauged Ribb and Gumara catchments, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Mesgana; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Xuan, Yunqing; Amare, Kibreab

Flow forecasting in poorly gauged, flood-prone Ribb and Gumara sub-catchments of the Blue Nile was studied with the aim of testing the performance of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). Four types of QPFs namely MM5 forecasts with a spatial resolution of 2 km; the Maximum, Mean and Minimum members (MaxEPS, MeanEPS and MinEPS where EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System) of the fixed, low resolution (2.5 by 2.5 degrees) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System (NOAA GFS) ensemble forecasts were used. Both the MM5 and the EPS were not calibrated (bias correction, downscaling (for EPS), etc.). In addition, zero forecasts assuming no rainfall in the coming days, and monthly average forecasts assuming average monthly rainfall in the coming days, were used. These rainfall forecasts were then used to drive the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS, hydrologic model for flow predictions. The results show that flow predictions using MaxEPS and MM5 precipitation forecasts over-predicted the peak flow for most of the seven events analyzed, whereas under-predicted peak flow was found using zero- and monthly average rainfall. The comparison of observed and predicted flow hydrographs shows that MM5, MaxEPS and MeanEPS precipitation forecasts were able to capture the rainfall signal that caused peak flows. Flow predictions based on MaxEPS and MeanEPS gave results that were quantitatively close to the observed flow for most events, whereas flow predictions based on MM5 resulted in large overestimations for some events. In follow-up research for this particular case study, calibration of the MM5 model will be performed. The overall analysis shows that freely available atmospheric forecasting products can provide additional information on upcoming rainfall and peak flow events in areas where only base-line forecasts such as no-rainfall or climatology are available.

Novel and conventional serum biomarkers predicting acute kidney injury in adult cardiac surgery--a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Haase-Fielitz, Anja; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Devarajan, Prasad; Story, David; Matalanis, George; Dragun, Duska; Haase, Michael

2009-02-01

To compare the value of novel with conventional serum biomarkers in the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI) in adult cardiac surgical patients according to preoperative renal function. Single-center, prospective observational study. Tertiary hospital. One hundred adult cardiac surgical patients. We measured concentrations of plasma neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), and serum cystatin C, and creatinine and urea at baseline, on arrival in the intensive care unit (ICU) and at 24 hours postoperatively. We assessed such biomarkers in relation to the development of AKI (>50% increase in creatinine from baseline) and to a composite end point (need for renal replacement therapy and in-hospital mortality). We defined an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.60-0.69 as poor, 0.70-0.79 as fair, 0.80-0.89 as good, and 0.90-1.00 as excellent in terms of predictive value. On arrival in ICU, plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were of good predictive value, but creatinine and urea were of poor predictive value. After exclusion of patients with preoperative renal impairment (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min), the predictive performance for AKI of all renal biomarkers on arrival in ICU remained unchanged except for cystatin C, which was of fair value in such patients. At 24 hours postoperatively, all renal biomarkers were of good predictive value. On arrival in ICU, novel biomarkers were superior to conventional biomarkers (p < 0.05). Plasma NGAL (p = 0.015) and serum cystatin C (p = 0.007) were independent predictors of AKI and of excellent value in the prediction of the composite end point. Early postoperative measurement of plasma NGAL was of good value in identifying patients who developed AKI after adult cardiac surgery. Plasma NGAL and serum cystatin C were superior to conventional biomarkers in the prediction of AKI and were also of prognostic value in this setting.

Sex-biased investment in yolk androgens depends on female quality and laying order in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, Lucy; Rutstein, Alison N.; Hazon, Neil; Graves, Jefferson A.

2005-04-01

The Trivers-Willard hypothesis predicts sex biases in parental investment according to parental condition. In addition, parents may need to sex bias their investment if there is an asymmetry between the sexes in offspring fitness under different conditions. For studying maternal differential investment, egg resources are ideal subjects because they are self contained and allocated unequivocally by the female. Recent studies show that yolk androgens can be beneficial to offspring, so here we test for sex-biased investment with maternal investment of yolk testosterone (T) in zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) eggs. From the Trivers-Willard hypothesis, we predicted females to invest more in male eggs in optimum circumstances (e.g. good-condition mother, early-laid egg), and more in female eggs under suboptimal conditions (e.g. poor-condition mother, late-laid egg). This latter prediction is also because in this species there is a female nestling disadvantage in poor conditions and we expected mothers to help compensate for this in female eggs. Indeed, we found more yolk T in female than male eggs. Moreover, in accordance with our predictions, yolk T in male eggs increased with maternal quality relative to female eggs, and decreased with laying order relative to female eggs. This supports our predictions for the different needs and value of male and female offspring in zebra finches. Our results support the idea that females may use yolk androgens as a tool to adaptively manipulate the inequalities between different nestlings.

Determinants of work ability and its predictive value for disability.

PubMed

Alavinia, S M; de Boer, A G E M; van Duivenbooden, J C; Frings-Dresen, M H W; Burdorf, A

2009-01-01

Maintaining the ability of workers to cope with physical and psychosocial demands at work becomes increasingly important in prolonging working life. To analyse the effects of work-related factors and individual characteristics on work ability and to determine the predictive value of work ability on receiving a work-related disability pension. A longitudinal study was conducted among 850 construction workers aged 40 years and older, with average follow-up period of 23 months. Disability was defined as receiving a disability pension, granted to workers unable to continue working in their regular job. Work ability was assessed using the work ability index (WAI). Associations between work-related factors and individual characteristics with work ability at baseline were evaluated using linear regression analysis, and Cox regression analysis was used to evaluate the predictive value of work ability for disability. Work-related factors were associated with a lower work ability at baseline, but had little prognostic value for disability during follow-up. The hazard ratios for disability among workers with a moderate and poor work ability at baseline were 8 and 32, respectively. All separate scales in the WAI had predictive power for future disability with the highest influence of current work ability in relation to job demands and lowest influence of diseases diagnosed by a physician. A moderate or poor work ability was highly predictive for receiving a disability pension. Preventive measures should facilitate a good balance between work performance and health in order to prevent quitting labour participation.

Profiles of neurological outcome prediction among intensivists.

PubMed

Racine, Eric; Dion, Marie-Josée; Wijman, Christine A C; Illes, Judy; Lansberg, Maarten G

2009-12-01

Advances in intensive care medicine have increased survival rates of patients with critical neurological conditions. The focus of prognostication for such patients is therefore shifting from predicting chances of survival to meaningful neurological recovery. This study assessed the variability in long-term outcome predictions among physicians and aimed to identify factors that may account for this variability. Based on a clinical vignette describing a comatose patient suffering from post-anoxic brain injury intensivists were asked in a semi-structured interview about the patient's specific neurological prognosis and about prognostication in general. Qualitative research methods were used to identify areas of variability in prognostication and to classify physicians according to specific prognostication profiles. Quantitative statistics were used to assess for associations between prognostication profiles and physicians' demographic and practice characteristics. Eighteen intensivists participated. Functional outcome predictions varied along an evaluative dimension (fair/good-poor) and a confidence dimension (certain-uncertain). More experienced physicians tended to be more pessimistic about the patient's functional outcome and more certain of their prognosis. Attitudes toward quality of life varied along an evaluative dimension (good-poor) and a "style" dimension (objective-subjective). Older and more experienced physicians were more likely to express objective judgments of quality of life and to predict a worse quality of life for the patient than their younger and less experienced counterparts. Various prognostication profiles exist among intensivists. These may be dictated by factors such as physicians' age and clinical experience. Awareness of these associations may be a first step to more uniform prognostication.

Utility of existing diabetes risk prediction tools for young black and white adults: Evidence from the Bogalusa Heart Study.

PubMed

Pollock, Benjamin D; Hu, Tian; Chen, Wei; Harville, Emily W; Li, Shengxu; Webber, Larry S; Fonseca, Vivian; Bazzano, Lydia A

2017-01-01

To evaluate several adult diabetes risk calculation tools for predicting the development of incident diabetes and pre-diabetes in a bi-racial, young adult population. Surveys beginning in young adulthood (baseline age ≥18) and continuing across multiple decades for 2122 participants of the Bogalusa Heart Study were used to test the associations of five well-known adult diabetes risk scores with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes using separate Cox models for each risk score. Racial differences were tested within each model. Predictive utility and discrimination were determined for each risk score using the Net Reclassification Index (NRI) and Harrell's c-statistic. All risk scores were strongly associated (p<.0001) with incident diabetes and pre-diabetes. The Wilson model indicated greater risk of diabetes for blacks versus whites with equivalent risk scores (HR=1.59; 95% CI 1.11-2.28; p=.01). C-statistics for the diabetes risk models ranged from 0.79 to 0.83. Non-event NRIs indicated high specificity (non-event NRIs: 76%-88%), but poor sensitivity (event NRIs: -23% to -3%). Five diabetes risk scores established in middle-aged, racially homogenous adult populations are generally applicable to younger adults with good specificity but poor sensitivity. The addition of race to these models did not result in greater predictive capabilities. A more sensitive risk score to predict diabetes in younger adults is needed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of health in predicting moves to poor neighborhoods among Hurricane Katrina survivors.

PubMed

Arcaya, Mariana C; Subramanian, S V; Rhodes, Jean E; Waters, Mary C

2014-11-18

In contrast to a large literature investigating neighborhood effects on health, few studies have examined health as a determinant of neighborhood attainment. However, the sorting of individuals into neighborhoods by health status is a substantively important process for multiple policy sectors. We use prospectively collected data on 569 poor, predominantly African American Hurricane Katrina survivors to examine the extent to which health problems predicted subsequent neighborhood poverty. Our outcome of interest was participants' 2009-2010 census tract poverty rate. Participants were coded as having a health problem at baseline (2003-2004) if they self-reported a diagnosis of asthma, high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart problems, or any other physical health problems not listed, or complained of back pain, migraines, or digestive problems at baseline. Although health problems were not associated with neighborhood poverty at baseline, those with baseline health problems ended up living in higher poverty areas by 2009-2010. Differences persisted after adjustment for personal characteristics, baseline neighborhood poverty, hurricane exposure, and residence in the New Orleans metropolitan area, with baseline health problems predicting a 3.4 percentage point higher neighborhood poverty rate (95% confidence interval: 1.41, 5.47). Results suggest that better health was protective against later neighborhood deprivation in a highly mobile, socially vulnerable population. Researchers should consider reciprocal associations between health and neighborhoods when estimating and interpreting neighborhood effects on health. Understanding whether and how poor health impedes poverty deconcentration efforts may help inform programs and policies designed to help low-income families move to--and stay in--higher opportunity neighborhoods.

Role of health in predicting moves to poor neighborhoods among Hurricane Katrina survivors

PubMed Central

Arcaya, Mariana C.; Subramanian, S. V.; Rhodes, Jean E.; Waters, Mary C.

2014-01-01

In contrast to a large literature investigating neighborhood effects on health, few studies have examined health as a determinant of neighborhood attainment. However, the sorting of individuals into neighborhoods by health status is a substantively important process for multiple policy sectors. We use prospectively collected data on 569 poor, predominantly African American Hurricane Katrina survivors to examine the extent to which health problems predicted subsequent neighborhood poverty. Our outcome of interest was participants’ 2009–2010 census tract poverty rate. Participants were coded as having a health problem at baseline (2003–2004) if they self-reported a diagnosis of asthma, high blood pressure, diabetes, high cholesterol, heart problems, or any other physical health problems not listed, or complained of back pain, migraines, or digestive problems at baseline. Although health problems were not associated with neighborhood poverty at baseline, those with baseline health problems ended up living in higher poverty areas by 2009–2010. Differences persisted after adjustment for personal characteristics, baseline neighborhood poverty, hurricane exposure, and residence in the New Orleans metropolitan area, with baseline health problems predicting a 3.4 percentage point higher neighborhood poverty rate (95% confidence interval: 1.41, 5.47). Results suggest that better health was protective against later neighborhood deprivation in a highly mobile, socially vulnerable population. Researchers should consider reciprocal associations between health and neighborhoods when estimating and interpreting neighborhood effects on health. Understanding whether and how poor health impedes poverty deconcentration efforts may help inform programs and policies designed to help low-income families move to—and stay in—higher opportunity neighborhoods. PMID:25331883

Dysfunctional attitudes and poor problem solving skills predict hopelessness in major depression.

PubMed

Cannon, B; Mulroy, R; Otto, M W; Rosenbaum, J F; Fava, M; Nierenberg, A A

1999-09-01

Hopelessness is a significant predictor of suicidality, but not all depressed patients feel hopeless. If clinicians can predict hopelessness, they may be able to identify those patients at risk of suicide and focus interventions on factors associated with hopelessness. In this study, we examined potential predictors of hopelessness in a sample of depressed outpatients. In this study, we examined potential demographic, diagnostic, and symptom predictors of hopelessness in a sample of 138 medication-free outpatients (73 women and 65 men) with a primary diagnosis of major depression. The significance of predictors was evaluated in both simple and multiple regression analyses. Consistent with previous studies, we found no significant associations between demographic and diagnostic variables and greater hopelessness. Hopelessness was significantly associated with greater depression severity, poor problem solving abilities as assessed by the Problem Solving Inventory, and each of two measures of dysfunctional cognitions (the Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale and the Cognitions Questionnaire). In a stepwise multiple regression equation, however, only dysfunctional cognitions and poor problem solving offered non-redundant prediction of hopelessness scores, and accounted for 20% of the variance in these scores. This study is based on depressed patients entering into an outpatient treatment protocol. All analyses were correlational in nature, and no causal links can be concluded. Our findings, identifying clinical correlates of hopelessness, provide clinicians with potential additional targets for assessment and treatment of suicidal risk. In particular, clinical attention to dysfunctional attitudes and problem solving skills may be important for further reduction of hopelessness and perhaps suicidal risk.

Choosing a design to fit the situation: how to improve specificity and positive predictive values using Bayesian lot quality assurance sampling

PubMed Central

Olives, Casey; Pagano, Marcello

2013-01-01

Background Lot Quality Assurance Sampling (LQAS) is a provably useful tool for monitoring health programmes. Although LQAS ensures acceptable Producer and Consumer risks, the literature alleges that the method suffers from poor specificity and positive predictive values (PPVs). We suggest that poor LQAS performance is due, in part, to variation in the true underlying distribution. However, until now the role of the underlying distribution in expected performance has not been adequately examined. Methods We present Bayesian-LQAS (B-LQAS), an approach to incorporating prior information into the choice of the LQAS sample size and decision rule, and explore its properties through a numerical study. Additionally, we analyse vaccination coverage data from UNICEF’s State of the World’s Children in 1968–1989 and 2008 to exemplify the performance of LQAS and B-LQAS. Results Results of our numerical study show that the choice of LQAS sample size and decision rule is sensitive to the distribution of prior information, as well as to individual beliefs about the importance of correct classification. Application of the B-LQAS approach to the UNICEF data improves specificity and PPV in both time periods (1968–1989 and 2008) with minimal reductions in sensitivity and negative predictive value. Conclusions LQAS is shown to be a robust tool that is not necessarily prone to poor specificity and PPV as previously alleged. In situations where prior or historical data are available, B-LQAS can lead to improvements in expected performance. PMID:23378151

Occult Form of Premature Ovarian Insufficiency in Women with Infertility and Oligomenorrhea as Assessed by Poor Ovarian Response Criteria.

PubMed

Izhar, Rubina; Husain, Samia; Tahir, Suhaima; Husain, Sonia

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the ability of poor ovarian response criteria to classify women presenting with infertility and oligomenorrhea as having "occult" premature ovarian insufficiency. This was a cross sectional study conducted at Aziz Medical Center, Karachi, Pakistan from 1st August 2015 to 31st July 2016. Women with infertility and oligomenorrhea were included. All eligible women underwent day 2 FSH level and an early follicular phase transvaginal ultrasound to assess the antral follicular count (AFC). All women then underwent the confirmatory test, of Anti-Mullerian Hormone (AMH) level. The main outcome measure was assignment to occult premature ovarian insufficiency (POI) after screening that used the criteria set out in fertility guideline for predicting the likely ovarian response to gonadotrophin stimulation. Another measure was to compare the sensitivity and specificity of the two index criteria, of FSH and AFC, relative to the emerging reference standard, of the AMH criterion. The three criteria together classified 59 (34.91%) women as occult POI in those with oligomenorrhea. The sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value and positive predictive value of FSH relative to AMH for these women were 77.8%, 95.7%, 90.2% and 89.4%, respectively whereas the same values of AFC relative to AMH were 92.6%, 99.1 %, 96.6% and 98%, respectively. Women with menstrual irregularity and infertility are at a higher risk for satisfying criteria of poor ovarian response irrespective of age. A policy incorporating these surrogate markers can be used to screen these women for occult premature ovarian insufficiency.

Zinc finger AN1-type containing 4 is a novel marker for predicting metastasis and poor prognosis in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Kurihara-Shimomura, Miyako; Sasahira, Tomonori; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Nakashima, Chie; Kuniyasu, Hiroki; Kirita, Tadaaki

2018-05-01

Head and neck cancer, including oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC), is the sixth most common cancer worldwide and has a high potential for locoregional invasion and nodal metastasis. Therefore, discovery of a useful molecular biomarker capable of predicting tumour progression and metastasis of OSCC is crucial. We have previously reported zinc finger AN1-type containing 4 (ZFAND4) as one of the most upregulated genes in recurrent OSCC using a cDNA microarray analysis. Although ZFAND4 has been shown to promote cell proliferation of gastric cancer, its expression and clinicopathological roles in OSCC remain unclear. In this study, we examined ZFAND4 expression by immunohistochemistry in 214 cases of OSCC. High cytoplasmic expression of ZFAND4 was observed in 45 out of 214 (21%) patients with OSCC. Expression levels of ZFAND4 were strongly associated with metastasis to the lymph nodes (p=0.0429) and distant organs (p=0.0068). Cases with high expression of ZFAND4 had a significantly unfavourable prognosis compared with patients with low expression of ZFAND4 (p<0.0001). Furthermore, ZFAND4 overexpression was an independent poor prognostic factor for OSCC as determined by multivariate analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model (p<0.0001). These results suggest that ZFAND4 is a useful marker for predicting metastasis and poor prognosis in patients with OSCC. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Prognostic significance of combined albumin-bilirubin and tumor-node-metastasis staging system in patients who underwent hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Harimoto, Norifumi; Yoshizumi, Tomoharu; Sakata, Kazuhito; Nagatsu, Akihisa; Motomura, Takashi; Itoh, Shinji; Harada, Noboru; Ikegami, Toru; Uchiyama, Hideaki; Soejima, Yuji; Maehara, Yoshihiko

2017-11-01

In recent years, the establishment of new staging systems for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been reported worldwide. The system combining albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) with tumor-node-metastasis stage, developed by the Liver Cancer Study Group of Japan, was called the ALBI-T score. Patient data were retrospectively collected for 357 consecutive patients who had undergone hepatic resection for HCC with curative intent between January 2004 and December 2015. The overall survival and recurrence-free survival were compared by the Kaplan-Meier method, using different staging systems: the Japan integrated staging (JIS), modified JIS, and ALBI-T. Multivariate analysis identified five poor prognostic factors (higher age, poor differentiation, the presence of microvascular invasion, the presence of intrahepatic metastasis, and blood transfusion) that influenced overall survival, and four poor prognostic factors (the presence of intrahepatic metastasis, serum α-fetoprotein level, blood transfusion, and each staging system (JIS, modified JIS, and ALBI-T score)) that influenced recurrence-free survival. Patients for each these three staging system had a significantly worse prognosis regarding recurrence-free survival, but not with overall survival. The modified JIS score showed the lowest Akaike information criteria statistic value, indicating it had the best ability to predict overall survival compared with the other staging systems. This retrospective analysis showed that, in post-hepatectomy patients with HCC, the ALBI-T score is predictive of worse recurrence-free survival, even when adjustments are made for other known predictors. However, modified JIS is better than ALBI-T in predicting overall survival. © 2017 The Japan Society of Hepatology.

Postoperative Biomarkers Predict Acute Kidney Injury and Poor Outcomes after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery

PubMed Central

Devarajan, Prasad; Zappitelli, Michael; Sint, Kyaw; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Li, Simon; Kim, Richard W.; Koyner, Jay L.; Coca, Steven G.; Edelstein, Charles L.; Shlipak, Michael G.; Garg, Amit X.; Krawczeski, Catherine D.

2011-01-01

Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly after pediatric cardiac surgery and associates with poor outcomes. Biomarkers may help the prediction or early identification of AKI, potentially increasing opportunities for therapeutic interventions. Here, we conducted a prospective, multicenter cohort study involving 311 children undergoing surgery for congenital cardiac lesions to evaluate whether early postoperative measures of urine IL-18, urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), or plasma NGAL could identify which patients would develop AKI and other adverse outcomes. Urine IL-18 and urine and plasma NGAL levels peaked within 6 hours after surgery. Severe AKI, defined by dialysis or doubling in serum creatinine during hospital stay, occurred in 53 participants at a median of 2 days after surgery. The first postoperative urine IL-18 and urine NGAL levels strongly associated with severe AKI. After multivariable adjustment, the highest quintiles of urine IL-18 and urine NGAL associated with 6.9- and 4.1-fold higher odds of AKI, respectively, compared with the lowest quintiles. Elevated urine IL-18 and urine NGAL levels associated with longer hospital stay, longer intensive care unit stay, and duration of mechanical ventilation. The accuracy of urine IL-18 and urine NGAL for diagnosis of severe AKI was moderate, with areas under the curve of 0.72 and 0.71, respectively. The addition of these urine biomarkers improved risk prediction over clinical models alone as measured by net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. In conclusion, urine IL-18 and urine NGAL, but not plasma NGAL, associate with subsequent AKI and poor outcomes among children undergoing cardiac surgery. PMID:21836147

Language Impairment From 4 to 12 Years: Prediction and Etiology

PubMed Central

Hayiou-Thomas, Marianna E.; Dale, Philip S.; Plomin, Robert

2014-01-01

Purpose The authors of this article examined the etiology of developmental language impairment (LI) at 4 and 12 years of age, as well as the relationship between the 2. Method Phenotypic and quantitative genetic analyses using longitudinal data from the Twins Early Development Study (Oliver & Plomin, 2007) were conducted. A total of 2,923 pairs of twins (1,075 monozygotic [MZ]; 975 dizygotic same sex [DZss]; and 873 dizygotic opposite sex [DZos]) provided data at 4 and 12 years. At 4 years, (a) psychometric LI was defined on the basis of a low parent-reported expressive vocabulary score (−1.25 SDs; 226 MZ and 115 DZss probands for genetic analysis); and (b) parent referral was defined as having seen a medical professional or speech-language pathologist following parental concern (112 MZ and 104 DZss probands). The 12-year language measure was a composite of 4 web-administered receptive language tests. Results (a) Psychometric LI at 4 years is more predictive than parent referral of poor language performance at age 12 years, and (b) parent referral is substantially and significantly more heritable than psychometric LI. Conclusions Parents’ concern about their child’s language development seems to be the marker of a more heritable disorder than poor expressive language skills alone. However, the language difficulties that arouse parental concern in preschool children, although more heritable, are not predictive of language difficulties in early adolescence. Rather, poor expressive language skills at age 4 years, psychometrically defined, are a better predictor than parent referral of continuing language difficulties at age 12 years. PMID:24167234

Targeting aspirin in acute disabling ischemic stroke: an individual patient data meta-analysis of three large randomized trials.

PubMed

Thompson, Douglas D; Murray, Gordon D; Candelise, Livia; Chen, Zhengming; Sandercock, Peter A G; Whiteley, William N

2015-10-01

Aspirin is of moderate overall benefit for patients with acute disabling ischemic stroke. It is unclear whether functional outcome could be improved after stroke by targeting aspirin to patients with a high risk of recurrent thrombosis or a low risk of haemorrhage. We aimed to determine whether patients at higher risk of thrombotic events or poor functional outcome, or lower risk of major haemorrhage had a greater absolute risk reduction of poor functional outcome with aspirin than the average patient. We used data on individual ischemic stroke patients from three large trials of aspirin vs. placebo in acute ischemic stroke: the first International Stroke Trial (n = 18,372), the Chinese Acute Stroke Trial (n = 20,172) and the Multicentre Acute Stroke Trial (n = 622). We developed and evaluated clinical prediction models for the following: early thrombotic events (myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism); early haemorrhagic events (significant intracranial haemorrhage, major extracranial haemorrhage, or haemorrhagic transformation of an infarct); and late poor functional outcome. We calculated the absolute risk reduction of poor functional outcome (death or dependence) at final follow-up in: quartiles of early thrombotic risk; quartiles of early haemorrhagic risk; and deciles of poor functional outcome risk. Ischemic stroke patients who were older, had lower blood pressure, computerized tomography evidence of infarct or more severe deficits due to stroke had increased risk of thrombotic and haemorrhagic events and poor functional outcome. Prediction models built with all baseline variables (including onset to treatment time) discriminated weakly between patients with and without recurrent thrombotic events (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0·56, 95% CI:0·53-0·59) and haemorrhagic events (0·57, 0·52-0·64), though well between patients with and without poor functional outcome (0·77, 0·76-0·78) in the International Stroke Trial. We found no evidence that the net benefit of aspirin increased with increasing risk of thrombosis, haemorrhage or poor functional outcome in all three trials. Using simple clinical variables to target aspirin to patients after acute disabling stroke by risk of thrombosis, haemorrhage or poor functional outcome does not lead to greater net clinical benefit. We suggest future risk stratification schemes include new risk factors for thrombosis and intracranial haemorrhage. © 2015 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Stroke Organization.

[Improvement and prediction of intestinal drug absorption].

PubMed

Miyake, Masateru

2013-01-01

The suppository preparation, which can improve the absorption of poorly absorbable drugs safer than commercially available suppositories, was developed by utilizing sodium laurate and taurine. Additionally, the novel oral absorption-improving system was also established by utilizing polyamines and bile acids. Furthermore, to evaluate the efficacy of these new formulations and estimate the absorbability of new drug candidates in humans, the in vitro prediction system utilizing an isolated human intestinal tissues was developed and successfully predicted the fraction of dose absorbed for several model drugs. These findings would contribute to the development of new dosage forms and new drugs for oral administration.

Analysis and Thermodynamic Prediction of Hydrogen Solution in Solid and Liquid Multicomponent Aluminum Alloys

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anyalebechi, P. N.

Reported experimentally determined values of hydrogen solubility in liquid and solid Al-H and Al-H-X (where X = Cu, Si, Zn, Mg, Li, Fe or Ti) systems have been critically reviewed and analyzed in terms of Wagner's interaction parameter. An attempt has been made to use Wagner's interaction parameter and statistic linear regression models derived from reported hydrogen solubility limits for binary aluminum alloys to predict the hydrogen solubility limits in liquid and solid (commercial) multicomponent aluminum alloys. Reasons for the observed poor agreement between the predicted and experimentally determined hydrogen solubility limits are discussed.

Application of an airfoil stall flutter computer prediction program to a three-dimensional wing: Prediction versus experiment. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Muffoletto, A. J.

1982-01-01

An aerodynamic computer code, capable of predicting unsteady and C sub m values for an airfoil undergoing dynamic stall, is used to predict the amplitudes and frequencies of a wing undergoing torsional stall flutter. The code, developed at United Technologies Research Corporation (UTRC), is an empirical prediction method designed to yield unsteady values of normal force and moment, given the airfoil's static coefficient characteristics and the unsteady aerodynamic values, alpha, A and B. In this experiment, conducted in the PSU 4' x 5' subsonic wind tunnel, the wing's elastic axis, torsional spring constant and initial angle of attack are varied, and the oscillation amplitudes and frequencies of the wing, while undergoing torsional stall flutter, are recorded. These experimental values show only fair comparisons with the predicted responses. Predictions tend to be good at low velocities and rather poor at higher velocities.

A Comparison of Measured and Predicted XV-15 Tiltrotor Surface Acoustic Pressures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lyle, Karen H.; Burley, Casey L.; Prichard, Devon S.

1997-01-01

Predicted XV-15 exterior surface acoustic pressures are compared with previously published experimental data. Surface acoustic pressure transducers were concentrated near the tip-path-plane of the rotor in airplane mode. The comparison emphasized cruise conditions which are of interest for tiltrotor interior noise - level flight for speeds ranging from 72 m/s to 113 m/s. The predictions were produced by components of the NASA Langley Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) system of computer codes. Comparisons between measurements and predictions were made in both the time and frequency domains, as well as overall sound pressure levels. In general, the predictions replicated the measured data well. Discrepancies between measurements and predictions were noted. Some of the discrepancies were due to poor correlation of the measured data with the rotor tach signal. In other cases limitations of the predictive methodology have been indicated.

Predictive codes of familiarity and context during the perceptual learning of facial identities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Apps, Matthew A. J.; Tsakiris, Manos

2013-11-01

Face recognition is a key component of successful social behaviour. However, the computational processes that underpin perceptual learning and recognition as faces transition from unfamiliar to familiar are poorly understood. In predictive coding, learning occurs through prediction errors that update stimulus familiarity, but recognition is a function of both stimulus and contextual familiarity. Here we show that behavioural responses on a two-option face recognition task can be predicted by the level of contextual and facial familiarity in a computational model derived from predictive-coding principles. Using fMRI, we show that activity in the superior temporal sulcus varies with the contextual familiarity in the model, whereas activity in the fusiform face area covaries with the prediction error parameter that updated facial familiarity. Our results characterize the key computations underpinning the perceptual learning of faces, highlighting that the functional properties of face-processing areas conform to the principles of predictive coding.

Prediction of Membership in Rehabilitation Counseling Professional Associations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Brian N.; Leahy, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Declining membership is a concerning yet poorly understood issue affecting professional associations across disciplines (Bauman, 2008). Rehabilitation counseling association membership is in decline even while number of certified rehabilitation counselors continues to increase (Leahy, 2009). Factors influencing rehabilitation counseling…

Distraction by a monotube fixator to achieve limb lengthening: predictive factors for tibia trauma

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Management of post trauma tibia bone gap varied with orthopedic surgeons’ experience and tools available. Study aims to determine predictive factors for distraction by a monotube fixator (DMF) outcome in post tibia trauma limb length discrepancy. Methods A prospective descriptive cross sectional study of post traumatized tibia bone gap and limb length discrepancy patients at tertiary hospitals. Patient’s informed consent and institutional ethical committee approval were obtained. Bio-data, clinical and healing indexes were documented. DMF was applied for patient that met inclusion criteria. The Statistic tests used included the Chi-square, the Student’s two-tailed t test, and the Wilcox on rank-sum test when appropriate. Mantel-Haenszel Common Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals for poor outcome potential risk factors were recorded. Bivariate correlation and logistic regression were evaluated. Significance level was set at a p value <0.05. Results Thirty-six patients with mean age, 37.2 ± 10.3 year and male/female ratio of 1:1.25 had DMF applied. Motorcycle accident accounted for 50.0% of patients and diaphyseal segment was most commonly affected 25 (69.4%). The mean bone lengthened was 10.1 ± 4.0 cm (range: 5-21 cm) and mean duration of bone transport was 105.6 ± 38.2 days. The means of rate of distraction, healing index and percentage of lengthening were 0.99 ± 0.14 mm/day, 15.6 ± 4.3 days/cm and 38.0 ± 14.3 respectively. The mean follow up was 9.7 ±4.9 months (range: 2–17.0). Per operative complications varied and outcome was satisfactory in 30 (83.3%). Obesity (p <0.0001), multiple surgery (p = 0.012) and transfusion (p = 0.001) correlated to poor outcome. Percentage lengthening ≥ 50%, bone gap >10 cm, anemia, blood transfusion, general anesthesia administration, distraction rate >1 mm/day, osteomyelitis and prolong partial weight bearing were significant predictive factors for poor outcome in post traumatic tibia distraction. Conclusion Distraction by a monotube fixator appears effective in achieving correction >38.0% original tibia lengthening following traumatic bone gap. Predictive factors for poor outcome were useful for prognostication. PMID:23672599

Improving Flood Prediction By the Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture in Poorly Monitored Catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alvarez-Garreton, C. D.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Crow, W. T.; Su, C. H.; Robertson, D. E.

2014-12-01

Flood prediction in poorly monitored catchments is among the greatest challenges faced by hydrologists. To address this challenge, an increasing number of studies in the last decade have explored methods to integrate various existing observations from ground and satellites. One approach in particular, is the assimilation of satellite soil moisture (SM-DA) into rainfall-runoff models. The rationale is that satellite soil moisture (SSM) can be used to correct model soil water states, enabling more accurate prediction of catchment response to precipitation and thus better streamflow. However, there is still no consensus on the most effective SM-DA scheme and how this might depend on catchment scale, climate characteristics, runoff mechanisms, model and SSM products used, etc. In this work, an operational SM-DA scheme was set up in the poorly monitored, large (>40,000 km2), semi-arid Warrego catchment situated in eastern Australia. We assimilated passive and active SSM products into the probability distributed model (PDM) using an ensemble Kalman filter. We explored factors influencing the SM-DA framework, including relatively new techniques to remove model-observation bias, estimate observation errors and represent model errors. Furthermore, we explored the advantages of accounting for the spatial distribution of forcing and channel routing processes within the catchment by implementing and comparing lumped and semi-distributed model setups. Flood prediction is improved by SM-DA (Figure), with a 30% reduction of the average root-mean-squared difference of the ensemble prediction, a 20% reduction of the false alarm ratio and a 40% increase of the ensemble mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. SM-DA skill does not significantly change with different observation error assumptions, but the skill strongly depends on the observational bias correction technique used, and more importantly, on the performance of the open-loop model before assimilation. Our findings imply that proper pre-processing of SSM is important for the efficacy of the SM-DA and assimilation performance is critically affected by the quality of model calibration. We therefore recommend focusing efforts on these two factors, while further evaluating the trade-offs between model complexity and data availability.

A new concept for the environmental risk assessment of poorly water soluble compounds and its application to consumer products.

PubMed

Tolls, Johannes; Müller, Martin; Willing, Andreas; Steber, Josef

2009-07-01

Many consumer products contain lipophilic, poorly soluble ingredients representing large-volume substances whose aquatic toxicity cannot be adequately determined with standard methods for a number of reasons. In such cases, a recently developed approach can be used to define an aquatic exposure threshold of no concern (ETNCaq; i.e., a concentration below which no adverse affects on the environment are to be expected). A risk assessment can be performed by comparing the ETNCaq value with the aquatic exposure levels of poorly soluble substances. Accordingly, the aquatic exposure levels of substances with water solubility below the ETNCaq will not exceed the ecotoxicological no-effect concentration; therefore, their risk can be assessed as being negligible. The ETNCaq value relevant for substances with a narcotic mode of action is 1.9 microg/L. To apply the above risk assessment strategy, the solubility in water needs to be known. Most frequently, this parameter is estimated by means of quantitative structure/activity relationships based on the log octanol-water partition coefficient (log Kow). The predictive value of several calculation models for water solubility has been investigated by this method with the use of more recent experimental solubility data for lipophilic compounds. A linear regression model was shown to be the most suitable for providing correct predictions without underestimation of real water solubility. To define a log Kow threshold suitable for reliably predicting a water solubility of less than 1.9 microg/L, a confidence limit was established by statistical comparison of the experimental solubility data with their log Kow. It was found that a threshold of log Kow = 7 generally allows discrimination between substances with solubility greater than and less than 1.9 microg/L. Accordingly, organic substances with a baseline toxicity and log Kow > 7 do not require further testing to prove that they have low environmental risk. In applying this concept, the uncertainty of the prediction of water solubility can be accounted for. If the predicted solubility in water is to be below ETNCaq with a probability of 95%, the corresponding log Kow value is 8.

Termination of Resuscitation Rules to Predict Neurological Outcomes in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest for an Intermediate Life Support Prehospital System.

PubMed

Cheong, Randy Wang Long; Li, Huihua; Doctor, Nausheen Edwin; Ng, Yih Yng; Goh, E Shaun; Leong, Benjamin Sieu-Hon; Gan, Han Nee; Foo, David; Tham, Lai Peng; Charles, Rabind; Ong, Marcus Eng Hock

2016-01-01

Futile resuscitation can lead to unnecessary transports for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). The Basic Life Support (BLS) and Advanced Life Support (ALS) termination of resuscitation (TOR) guidelines have been validated with good results in North America. This study aims to evaluate the performance of these two rules in predicting neurological outcomes of OHCA patients in Singapore, which has an intermediate life support Emergency Medical Services (EMS) system. A retrospective cohort study was carried out on Singapore OHCA data collected from April 2010 to May 2012 for the Pan-Asian Resuscitation Outcomes Study (PAROS). The outcomes of each rule were compared to the actual neurological outcomes of the patients. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and predicted transport rates of each test were evaluated. A total of 2,193 patients had cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac etiology. TOR was recommended for 1,411 patients with the BLS-TOR rule, with a specificity of 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.7, 100.0), sensitivity 65.7% (63.6, 67.7), NPV 5.6% (4.1, 7.5), and transportation rate 35.6%. Using the ALS-TOR rule, TOR was recommended for 587 patients, specificity 100% (91.9, 100.0) for predicting poor neurological outcomes, PPV 100% (99.4, 100.0), sensitivity 27.3% (25.4, 29.3), NPV 2.7% (2.0, 3.7), and transportation rate 73.2%. BLS-TOR predicted survival (any neurological outcome) with specificity 93.4% (95% CI 85.3, 97.8) versus ALS-TOR 98.7% (95% CI 92.9, 99.8). Both the BLS and ALS-TOR rules had high specificities and PPV values in predicting neurological outcomes, the BLS-TOR rule had a lower predicted transport rate while the ALS-TOR rule was more accurate in predicting futility of resuscitation. Further research into unique local cultural issues would be useful to evaluate the feasibility of any system-wide implementation of TOR.

Checking the predictive accuracy of basic symptoms against ultra high-risk criteria and testing of a multivariable prediction model: Evidence from a prospective three-year observational study of persons at clinical high-risk for psychosis.

PubMed

Hengartner, M P; Heekeren, K; Dvorsky, D; Walitza, S; Rössler, W; Theodoridou, A

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to critically examine the prognostic validity of various clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria alone and in combination with additional clinical characteristics. A total of 188 CHR positive persons from the region of Zurich, Switzerland (mean age 20.5 years; 60.2% male), meeting ultra high-risk (UHR) and/or basic symptoms (BS) criteria, were followed over three years. The test battery included the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes (SIPS), verbal IQ and many other screening tools. Conversion to psychosis was defined according to ICD-10 criteria for schizophrenia (F20) or brief psychotic disorder (F23). Altogether n=24 persons developed manifest psychosis within three years and according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the projected conversion rate was 17.5%. The predictive accuracy of UHR was statistically significant but poor (area under the curve [AUC]=0.65, P<.05), whereas BS did not predict psychosis beyond mere chance (AUC=0.52, P=.730). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.83 and 0.47 for UHR, and 0.96 and 0.09 for BS. UHR plus BS achieved an AUC=0.66, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.75 and 0.56. In comparison, baseline antipsychotic medication yielded a predictive accuracy of AUC=0.62 (sensitivity=0.42; specificity=0.82). A multivariable prediction model comprising continuous measures of positive symptoms and verbal IQ achieved a substantially improved prognostic accuracy (AUC=0.85; sensitivity=0.86; specificity=0.85; positive predictive value=0.54; negative predictive value=0.97). We showed that BS have no predictive accuracy beyond chance, while UHR criteria poorly predict conversion to psychosis. Combining BS with UHR criteria did not improve the predictive accuracy of UHR alone. In contrast, dimensional measures of both positive symptoms and verbal IQ showed excellent prognostic validity. A critical re-thinking of binary at-risk criteria is necessary in order to improve the prognosis of psychotic disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

TGF-β1, Ghrelin, Neurexin, and Neuroligin are predictive biomarkers for postoperative prognosis of laparoscopic surgery in children with Hirschsprung disease.

PubMed

Shangjie, Xiao; Xiaochun, Zhu; Wenyi, Yang; Wuping, Ge; Ying, Zhang; Qiuming, He; Huimin, Xia

2015-03-01

The study was set to analyze the predictive values of transforming growth factor β1 (TGF-β1), Ghrelin, Neurexin, and Neuroligin protein expression on postoperative prognosis of laparoscopic surgery in children with Hirschsprung disease. 281 cases of children with Hirschsprung disease, admitted into Guangdong Women and Children Hospital and Guangzhou women and children's medical center from March 2009 to March 2014, were treated with laparoscopic radical surgery for Hirschsprung disease. They were divided into the good and the poor prognosis groups according to their recuperation and complications. Protein expressions of TGF-β1, Ghrelin, Neurexin, and Neuroligin were prospectively analyzed. The correlations between the expressions of these proteins and the prognosis were analyzed. There were 129 cases of children with poor prognosis, accounting for 45.9 %. There were no significant differences in the expressions of TGF-β1 mRNA and proteins within the group in both the groups (p > 0.05). TGF-β1 mRNA and protein expressions of the poor prognosis group were significantly higher than those of the good prognosis group in each segment of intestine (p < 0.05). Protein detection results manifested that Ghrelin protein expression gradually increased along narrow segment, transitional segment, and expansion segment in both groups. Ghrelin protein expression of the poor prognosis group was significantly lower than that of the good prognosis group in each segment of intestine (p < 0.05). There were significant differences in the protein expressions of Neurexin and Neuroligin within the group. The protein expressions of Neurexin and Neuroligin in expansion segment were the highest. Neurexin and Neuroligin protein expressions of the poor prognosis group were significantly lower than those of the good prognosis group in each segment of intestine (p < 0.05). Increasing expression of TGF-β1 protein, decreasing expressions of Ghrelin, Neurexin, and Neuroligin proteins can induce the loss or dysfunction of ganglion cells in distal intestinal canal, which is closely correlated with the occurrences of adverse prognosis, such as increased intestinal peristalsis recovery time, increased complication rate etc., in children. It has a high value for predicting prognosis of children patients with Hirschsprung disease after surgical intervention.

A Refined Prediction Model for Core and Lower Extremity Sprains and Strains Among Collegiate Football Players.

PubMed

Wilkerson, Gary B; Colston, Marisa A

2015-06-01

Researchers have identified high exposure to game conditions, low back dysfunction, and poor endurance of the core musculature as strong predictors for the occurrence of sprains and strains among collegiate football players. To refine a previously developed injury-prediction model through analysis of 3 consecutive seasons of data. Cohort study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. For 3 consecutive years, all 152 team members (age = 19.7 ± 1.5 years, height = 1.84 ± 0.08 m, mass = 101.08 ± 19.28 kg) presented for a mandatory physical examination on the day before initiation of preseason practice sessions. Associations between preseason measurements and the subsequent occurrence of a core or lower extremity sprain or strain were established for 256 player-seasons of data. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to identify optimal cut points for dichotomous categorizations of cases as high risk or low risk. Both logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify a multivariable injury-prediction model with optimal discriminatory power. Exceptionally good discrimination between injured and uninjured cases was found for a 3-factor prediction model that included equal to or greater than 1 game as a starter, Oswestry Disability Index score equal to or greater than 4, and poor wall-sit-hold performance. The existence of at least 2 of the 3 risk factors demonstrated 56% sensitivity, 80% specificity, an odds ratio of 5.28 (90% confidence interval = 3.31, 8.44), and a hazard ratio of 2.97 (90% confidence interval = 2.14, 4.12). High exposure to game conditions was the dominant injury risk factor for collegiate football players, but a surprisingly mild degree of low back dysfunction and poor core-muscle endurance appeared to be important modifiable risk factors that should be identified and addressed before participation.

Contrasting bacterial communities in two indigenous Chionochloa (Poaceae) grassland soils in New Zealand

PubMed Central

Griffith, Jocelyn C.; Lee, William G.; Orlovich, David A.

2017-01-01

The cultivation of grasslands can modify both bacterial community structure and impact on nutrient cycling as well as the productivity and diversity of plant communities. In this study, two pristine New Zealand grassland sites dominated by indigenous tall tussocks (Chionochloa pallens or C. teretifolia) were examined to investigate the extent and predictability of variation of the bacterial community. The contribution of free-living bacteria to biological nitrogen fixation is predicted to be ecologically significant in these soils; therefore, the diazotrophic community was also examined. The C. teretifolia site had N-poor and poorly-drained peaty soils, and the C. pallens had N-rich and well-drained fertile soils. These soils also differ in the proportion of organic carbon (C), Olsen phosphorus (P) and soil pH. The nutrient-rich soils showed increased relative abundances of some copiotrophic bacterial taxa (including members of the Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes phyla). Other copiotrophs, Actinobacteria and the oliogotrophic Acidobacteria showed increased relative abundance in nutrient-poor soils. Greater diversity based on 16S rRNA gene sequences and the Tax4Fun prediction of enhanced spore formation associated with nutrient-rich soils could indicate increased resilience of the bacterial community. The two sites had distinct diazotrophic communities with higher diversity in C. teretifolia soils that had less available nitrate and ammonium, potentially indicating increased resilience of the diazotroph community at this site. The C. teretifolia soils had more 16S rRNA gene and nifH copies per g soil than the nutrient rich site. However, the proportion of the bacterial community that was diazotrophic was similar in the two soils. We suggest that edaphic and vegetation factors are contributing to major differences in the composition and diversity of total bacterial and diazotrophic communities at these sites. We predict the differences in the communities at the two sites will result in different responses to environmental change. PMID:28658306

A Refined Prediction Model for Core and Lower Extremity Sprains and Strains Among Collegiate Football Players

PubMed Central

Wilkerson, Gary B.; Colston, Marisa A.

2015-01-01

Context Researchers have identified high exposure to game conditions, low back dysfunction, and poor endurance of the core musculature as strong predictors for the occurrence of sprains and strains among collegiate football players. Objective To refine a previously developed injury-prediction model through analysis of 3 consecutive seasons of data. Design Cohort study. Setting National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. Patients or Other Participants For 3 consecutive years, all 152 team members (age = 19.7 ± 1.5 years, height = 1.84 ± 0.08 m, mass = 101.08 ± 19.28 kg) presented for a mandatory physical examination on the day before initiation of preseason practice sessions. Main Outcome Measure(s) Associations between preseason measurements and the subsequent occurrence of a core or lower extremity sprain or strain were established for 256 player-seasons of data. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to identify optimal cut points for dichotomous categorizations of cases as high risk or low risk. Both logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify a multivariable injury-prediction model with optimal discriminatory power. Results Exceptionally good discrimination between injured and uninjured cases was found for a 3-factor prediction model that included equal to or greater than 1 game as a starter, Oswestry Disability Index score equal to or greater than 4, and poor wall-sit–hold performance. The existence of at least 2 of the 3 risk factors demonstrated 56% sensitivity, 80% specificity, an odds ratio of 5.28 (90% confidence interval = 3.31, 8.44), and a hazard ratio of 2.97 (90% confidence interval = 2.14, 4.12). Conclusions High exposure to game conditions was the dominant injury risk factor for collegiate football players, but a surprisingly mild degree of low back dysfunction and poor core-muscle endurance appeared to be important modifiable risk factors that should be identified and addressed before participation. PMID:25844856

Leukoaraiosis predicts poor 90-day outcome after acute large cerebral artery occlusion.

PubMed

Henninger, Nils; Lin, Eugene; Baker, Stephen P; Wakhloo, Ajay K; Takhtani, Deepak; Moonis, Majaz

2012-01-01

To date limited information regarding outcome-modifying factors in patients with acute intracranial large artery occlusion (ILAO) in the anterior circulation is available. Leukoaraiosis (LA) is a common finding among patients with ischemic stroke and has been associated with poor post-stroke outcomes but its association with ILAO remains poorly characterized. This study sought to clarify the contribution of baseline LA and other common risk factors to 90-day outcome (modified Rankin Scale, mRS) after stroke due to acute anterior circulation ILAO. We retrospectively analyzed 1,153 consecutive patients with imaging-confirmed ischemic stroke during a 4-year period (2007-2010) at a single academic institution. The final study cohort included 87 patients with acute ILAO subjected to multimodal CT imaging within 24 h of symptom onset. LA severity was assessed using the van Swieten scale on non-contrast CT. Leptomeningeal collaterals were graded using CT angiogram source images. Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) was determined on follow-up CT. Multivariate logistic regression controlling for HT, treatment modality, demographic, as well as baseline clinical and imaging characteristics was used to identify independent predictors of a poor outcome (90-day mRS >2). The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) at baseline was 15 (interquartile range 9-21). Twenty-four percent of the studied patients had severe LA. They were more likely to have hypertension (p = 0.028), coronary artery disease (p = 0.015), poor collaterals (p < 0.001), higher baseline NIHSS (p = 0.003), higher mRS at 90 days (p < 0.001), and were older (p = 0.002). Patients with severe LA had a uniformly poor outcome (p < 0.001) irrespective of treatment modality. Poor outcome was independently associated with higher baseline NIHSS (p < 0.001), worse LA (graded and dichotomized, p < 0.001), reduced leptomeningeal collaterals (graded and dichotomized, p < 0.001), presence of HT (p < 0.001), presence of parenchymal hemorrhages (p = 0.01), baseline mRS (p = 0.002), and older age (p = 0.043). The association between severe LA (p = 0.0056; OR 13.86; 95% CI 1.94-∞) and baseline NIHSS (p = 0.0001; OR 5.11; 95% CI 2.07-14.49 for each 10-point increase) with poor outcome maintained after adjustment for confounders in the final regression model. In this model, there was no significant association between presence of HT and poor outcome (p = 0.0572). Coexisting LA may predict poor functional outcome in patients with acute anterior circulation ILAO independent of other known important outcome predictors such as comorbid state, admission functional deficit, collateral status, hemorrhagic conversion, and treatment modality. Copyright © 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Predicting Parent-Child Aggression Risk: Cognitive Factors and Their Interaction With Anger.

PubMed

Rodriguez, Christina M

2018-02-01

Several cognitive elements have previously been proposed to elevate risk for physical child abuse. To predict parent-child aggression risk, the current study evaluated the role of approval of parent-child aggression, perceptions of children as poorly behaved, and discipline attributions. Several dimensions of attributions specifically tied to parents' discipline practices were targeted. In addition, anger experienced during discipline episodes was considered a potential moderator of these cognitive processes. Using a largely multiple-indicator approach, a sample of 110 mothers reported on these cognitive and affective aspects that may occur when disciplining their children as well as responding to measures of parent-child aggression risk. Findings suggest that greater approval of parent-child aggression, negative perceptions of their child's behavior, and discipline attributions independently predicted parent-child aggression risk, with anger significantly interacting with mothers' perception of their child as more poorly behaved to exacerbate their parent-child aggression risk. Of the discipline attribution dimensions evaluated, mothers' sense of external locus of control and believing their child deserved their discipline were related to increase parent-child aggression risk. Future work is encouraged to comprehensively evaluate how cognitive and affective components contribute and interact to increase risk for parent-child aggression.

Heart Rate Variability Moderates the Association Between Separation-Related Psychological Distress and Blood Pressure Reactivity Over Time.

PubMed

Bourassa, Kyle J; Hasselmo, Karen; Sbarra, David A

2016-08-01

Divorce is a stressor associated with long-term health risk, though the mechanisms of this effect are poorly understood. Cardiovascular reactivity is one biological pathway implicated as a predictor of poor long-term health after divorce. A sample of recently separated and divorced adults (N = 138) was assessed over an average of 7.5 months to explore whether individual differences in heart rate variability-assessed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia-operate in combination with subjective reports of separation-related distress to predict prospective changes in cardiovascular reactivity, as indexed by blood pressure reactivity. Participants with low resting respiratory sinus arrhythmia at baseline showed no association between divorce-related distress and later blood pressure reactivity, whereas participants with high respiratory sinus arrhythmia showed a positive association. In addition, within-person variation in respiratory sinus arrhythmia and between-persons variation in separation-related distress interacted to predict blood pressure reactivity at each laboratory visit. Individual differences in heart rate variability and subjective distress operate together to predict cardiovascular reactivity and may explain some of the long-term health risk associated with divorce. © The Author(s) 2016.

Second trimester maternal urine for the diagnosis of trisomy 21 and prediction of poor pregnancy outcomes.

PubMed

Diaz, Sílvia O; Barros, António S; Goodfellow, Brian J; Duarte, Iola F; Galhano, Eulália; Pita, Cristina; Almeida, Maria do Céu; Carreira, Isabel M; Gil, Ana M

2013-06-07

Given the recognized lack of prenatal clinical methods for the early diagnosis of preterm delivery, intrauterine growth restriction, preeclampsia and gestational diabetes mellitus, and the continuing need for optimized diagnosis methods for specific chromosomal disorders (e.g., trisomy 21) and fetal malformations, this work sought specific metabolic signatures of these conditions in second trimester maternal urine, using (1)H Nuclear Magnetic Resonance ((1)H NMR) metabolomics. Several variable importance to the projection (VIP)- and b-coefficient-based variable selection methods were tested, both individually and through their intersection, and the resulting data sets were analyzed by partial least-squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) and submitted to Monte Carlo cross validation (MCCV) and permutation tests to evaluate model predictive power. The NMR data subsets produced significantly improved PLS-DA models for all conditions except for pre-premature rupture of membranes. Specific urinary metabolic signatures were unveiled for central nervous system malformations, trisomy 21, preterm delivery, gestational diabetes, intrauterine growth restriction and preeclampsia, and biochemical interpretations were proposed. This work demonstrated, for the first time, the value of maternal urine profiling as a complementary means of prenatal diagnostics and early prediction of several poor pregnancy outcomes.

Quantitative computed tomography-based predictions of vertebral strength in anterior bending.

PubMed

Buckley, Jenni M; Cheng, Liu; Loo, Kenneth; Slyfield, Craig; Xu, Zheng

2007-04-20

This study examined the ability of QCT-based structural assessment techniques to predict vertebral strength in anterior bending. The purpose of this study was to compare the abilities of QCT-based bone mineral density (BMD), mechanics of solids models (MOS), e.g., bending rigidity, and finite element analyses (FE) to predict the strength of isolated vertebral bodies under anterior bending boundary conditions. Although the relative performance of QCT-based structural measures is well established for uniform compression, the ability of these techniques to predict vertebral strength under nonuniform loading conditions has not yet been established. Thirty human thoracic vertebrae from 30 donors (T9-T10, 20 female, 10 male; 87 +/- 5 years of age) were QCT scanned and destructively tested in anterior bending using an industrial robot arm. The QCT scans were processed to generate specimen-specific FE models as well as trabecular bone mineral density (tBMD), integral bone mineral density (iBMD), and MOS measures, such as axial and bending rigidities. Vertebral strength in anterior bending was poorly to moderately predicted by QCT-based BMD and MOS measures (R2 = 0.14-0.22). QCT-based FE models were better strength predictors (R2 = 0.34-0.40); however, their predictive performance was not statistically different from MOS bending rigidity (P > 0.05). Our results suggest that the poor clinical performance of noninvasive structural measures may be due to their inability to predict vertebral strength under bending loads. While their performance was not statistically better than MOS bending rigidities, QCT-based FE models were moderate predictors of both compressive and bending loads at failure, suggesting that this technique has the potential for strength prediction under nonuniform loads. The current FE modeling strategy is insufficient, however, and significant modifications must be made to better mimic whole bone elastic and inelastic material behavior.

Can pelvic tilt be predicated by the sacrofemoral-pubic angel in patients with thoracolumbar kyphosis secondary to ankylosing spondylitis?

PubMed

Hu, Jun; Ji, Ming-liang; Qian, Bang-ping; Qiu, Yong; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yang; Zhu, Ze-Zhang; Jiang, Jun

2014-11-01

A retrospective radiographical study. To construct a predictive model for pelvic tilt (PT) based on the sacrofemoral-pubic (SFP) angle in patients with thoracolumbar kyphosis secondary to ankylosing spondylitis (or AS). PT is a key pelvic parameter in the regulation of spine sagittal alignment that can be used to plan the appropriate osteotomy angle in patients with AS with thoracolumbar kyphosis. However, it could be difficult to measure PT in patients with femoral heads poorly visualized on lateral radiographs. Previous studies showed that the SFP angle could be used to evaluate PT in adult patients with scoliosis. However, this method has not been validated in patients with AS. A total of 115 patients with AS with thoracolumbar kyphosis were included. Full-length anteroposterior and lateral spine radiographs were all available, with spinal and pelvic anatomical landmarks clearly identified. PT, SFP angle, and global kyphosis were measured. The patients were randomly divided into group A (n=65) and group B (n=50). In group A, the predictive model for PT was constructed by the results of the linear regression analysis. In group B, the predictive ability and accuracy of the predictive model were investigated. In group A, the Pearson correlation analysis revealed a strong correlation between the SFP angle and PT (r=0.852; P<0.001). The predictive model for PT was constructed as PT=72.3-0.82×(SFP angle). In group B, PT was predicted by the model with a mean error of 4.6° (SD=4.5°) with a predictive value of 78%. PT can be accurately predicted by the SFP angle using the current model: PT=72.3-0.82×(SFP angle), when the femur heads are poorly visualized on lateral radiographs in patients with AS with thoracolumbar kyphosis. 4.

MEDEX 2015: Heart Rate Variability Predicts Development of Acute Mountain Sickness.

PubMed

Sutherland, Angus; Freer, Joseph; Evans, Laura; Dolci, Alberto; Crotti, Matteo; Macdonald, Jamie Hugo

2017-09-01

Sutherland, Angus, Joseph Freer, Laura Evans, Alberto Dolci, Matteo Crotti, and Jamie Hugo Macdonald. MEDEX 2015: Heart rate variability predicts development of acute mountain sickness. High Alt Med Biol. 18: 199-208, 2017. Acute mountain sickness (AMS) develops when the body fails to acclimatize to atmospheric changes at altitude. Preascent prediction of susceptibility to AMS would be a useful tool to prevent subsequent harm. Changes to peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO 2 ) on hypoxic exposure have previously been shown to be of poor predictive value. Heart rate variability (HRV) has shown promise in the early prediction of AMS, but its use pre-expedition has not previously been investigated. We aimed to determine whether pre- and intraexpedition HRV assessment could predict susceptibility to AMS at high altitude with better diagnostic accuracy than SpO 2 . Forty-four healthy volunteers undertook an expedition in the Nepali Himalaya to >5000 m. SpO 2 and HRV parameters were recorded at rest in normoxia and in a normobaric hypoxic chamber before the expedition. On the expedition HRV parameters and SpO 2 were collected again at 3841 m. A daily Lake Louise Score was obtained to assess AMS symptomology. Low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF) ratio in normoxia (cutpoint ≤2.28 a.u.) and LF following 15 minutes of exposure to normobaric hypoxia had moderate (area under the curve ≥0.8) diagnostic accuracy. LF/HF ratio in normoxia had the highest sensitivity (85%) and specificity (88%) for predicting AMS on subsequent ascent to altitude. In contrast, pre-expedition SpO 2 measurements had poor (area under the curve <0.7) diagnostic accuracy and inferior sensitivity and specificity. Pre-ascent measurement of HRV in normoxia was found to be of better diagnostic accuracy for AMS prediction than all measures of HRV in hypoxia, and better than peripheral oxygen saturation monitoring.

Spirometry: predicting risk and outcome.

PubMed

Brunelli, Alessandro; Rocco, Gaetano

2008-02-01

Predicted postoperative FEV1 is certainly the most widely used parameter in preoperative risk stratification [54] and the measure recommend by BTS and ACCP functional guidelines as a first step in the screening of patients for lung resection surgery. Nevertheless, recent evidences have demonstrated that ppoFEV1 is not a reliable predictor of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in patients with preoperative impaired pulmonary function. This may be because of the fact that the resection of a portion of lung in patients with obstructive disease determines only a minimal loss, or even an improvement, in overall respiratory function and exercise tolerance. This lung volume reduction effect takes place very early, since the first postoperative days, balancing what ever negative physiologic effects a thoracotomy and lung resection may entail. In addition to its poor predictive role in COPD patients, ppoFEV1 largely underestimate the actual loss in the very first days after operation, when most of the complications develop. The rationale to use a parameter which is poorly correlated with the pulmonary function at the moment the complications occur seems unwarranted. At the very best, ppoFEV1 appears a weak surrogate of the immediate postoperative FEV1. The FEV1 measured on the first postoperative day may be 30% less than predicted. Corrective equations have been published to correct this discrepancy with the aim to improve risk stratification.

Prediction of birth weight discordance from fetal weight estimations at 21-24 weeks' scans in monochorionic and dichorionic twins.

PubMed

Queirós, Alexandra; Blickstein, Isaac; Valdoleiros, Sandra; Felix, Nisa; Cohen, Alvaro; Simões, Teresinha

2017-08-01

To evaluate if inter-twin estimated fetal weight (EFW) differences at 21-24 weeks' scans predict birth weight discordance in monochorionic and dichorionic twins born at three gestational age periods. We counted the number of pairs with discordant EFWs (EFWs greater than the mean + 1SD; i.e. a difference above 12% in dichorionic and 21% in monochorionic twins) derived during a 21-24 weeks' scan as compared to actual discordant birth weight (>25%) in monochorionic and dichorionic pairs born at ≤32, 33-36 and >36 weeks. We studied 416 dichorionic and 244 monochorionic twins. The frequency of EFWs discordance at 21-24 weeks was the same for dichorionic and monochorionic twins but the total number of birth weight discordant pairs was significantly smaller among dichorionic twins (OR 0.2, 95% CI 0.1, 0.6). Generally, the positive predictive values for birth weight discordance by using the EFWs difference were quite poor, but always better in monochorionic than in dichorionic twins. Whereas the negative predictive value and hence the sensitivity for monochorionic twins was 100% irrespective of gestational age at birth, it was much lower in the dichorionic pairs. Concordant EFWs at 21-24 weeks exclude discordant birth weight in monochorionic twins whereas discordant EFWs are poor predictors of birth weight discordance especially in dichorionic twins irrespective when the twins were born.

Scalp EEG does not predict hemispherectomy outcome

PubMed Central

Greiner, Hansel M.; Park, Yong D.; Holland, Katherine; Horn, Paul S.; Byars, Anna W.; Mangano, Francesco T.; Smith, Joseph R.; Lee, Mark R.; Lee, Ki-Hyeong

2012-01-01

Background Functional hemispherectomy is effective in carefully selected patients, resulting in a reduction of seizure burden up to complete resolution, improvement of intellectual development, and developmental benefit despite possible additional neurological deficit. Despite apparent hemispheric pathology on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) or other imaging tests, scalp electroencephalography (EEG) could be suggestive of bilateral ictal onset or even ictal onset contralateral to the dominant imaging abnormality. We aimed to investigate the role of scalp EEG lateralization pre-operatively in predicting outcome. Methods We retrospectively reviewed 54 patients who underwent hemispherectomy between 1991 and 2009 at Medical College of Georgia (1991–2006) and Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center (2006–2009) and had at least one year post-operative follow-up. All preoperative EEGs were reviewed, and classified as either lateralizing or nonlateralizing, for both ictal and interictal EEG recordings. Results Of 54 patients, 42 (78%) became seizure free. Twenty-four (44%) of 54 had a nonlateralizing ictal or interictal EEG. Further analysis was based on etiology of epilepsy, including malformation of cortical development (MCD), Rasmussen syndrome (RS), and stroke (CVA). EEG nonlateralization did not predict poor outcome in any of the etiology groups evaluated. Conclusion Scalp EEG abnormalities in contralateral or bilateral hemispheres do not, in isolation, predict a poor outcome from hemispherectomy. Results of other non-invasive and invasive evaluations should be used to determine candidacy. PMID:21813300

Longitudinal Analysis of Depressive Symptoms and Glycemic Control in Type 2 Diabetes

PubMed Central

Aikens, James E.; Perkins, Denise White; Lipton, Bonnie; Piette, John D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE To compare whether depressive symptoms are more strongly related to subsequent or prior glycemic control in type 2 diabetes and to test whether patient characteristics modify these longitudinal associations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS On two occasions separated by 6 months, depressive symptoms and glycemic control were assessed in 253 adults with type 2 diabetes. Regression analyses examined depressive symptoms as both a predictor and outcome of glycemic control and tested whether medication regimen (e.g., insulin versus oral drugs) was an effect modifier before and after adjusting for baseline levels of the outcome being predicted. RESULTS Depressive symptom severity predicted poor glycemic control 6 months later (P = 0.018) but not after baseline glycemic control was taken into account (P = 0.361). Although baseline glycemic control did not generally predict depressive symptoms 6 months later (P = 0.558), it significantly interacted with regimen (P = 0.008). Specifically, glycemic control predicted depressive symptoms among patients prescribed insulin (β = 0.31, P = 0.002) but not among those prescribed oral medication alone (β = −0.10, P = 0.210). Classifying depression dichotomously produced similar but weaker findings. CONCLUSIONS Depressive symptoms do not necessarily lead to worsened glycemic control. In contrast, insulin-treated patients in poor glycemic control are at moderate risk for worsening of depressive symptoms. These patients should be carefully monitored to determine whether depression treatment should be initiated or intensified. PMID:19389814

Sequence-based Network Completion Reveals the Integrality of Missing Reactions in Metabolic Networks*

PubMed Central

Krumholz, Elias W.; Libourel, Igor G. L.

2015-01-01

Genome-scale metabolic models are central in connecting genotypes to metabolic phenotypes. However, even for well studied organisms, such as Escherichia coli, draft networks do not contain a complete biochemical network. Missing reactions are referred to as gaps. These gaps need to be filled to enable functional analysis, and gap-filling choices influence model predictions. To investigate whether functional networks existed where all gap-filling reactions were supported by sequence similarity to annotated enzymes, four draft networks were supplemented with all reactions from the Model SEED database for which minimal sequence similarity was found in their genomes. Quadratic programming revealed that the number of reactions that could partake in a gap-filling solution was vast: 3,270 in the case of E. coli, where 72% of the metabolites in the draft network could connect a gap-filling solution. Nonetheless, no network could be completed without the inclusion of orphaned enzymes, suggesting that parts of the biochemistry integral to biomass precursor formation are uncharacterized. However, many gap-filling reactions were well determined, and the resulting networks showed improved prediction of gene essentiality compared with networks generated through canonical gap filling. In addition, gene essentiality predictions that were sensitive to poorly determined gap-filling reactions were of poor quality, suggesting that damage to the network structure resulting from the inclusion of erroneous gap-filling reactions may be predictable. PMID:26041773

Predicting macroinvertebrate MMI for geographic targeting

EPA Science Inventory

The US Environmental Protection Agency surveys the ecological conditions of streams across broad regions. We wish to identify specific streams in poor condition, as well as their regional extent. To identify such streams in Idaho, Oregon and Washington we built multiple regress...

Assessment of driving-related skills for older drivers : traffic tech.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

Relating behind-the-wheel driving performance to performance : on office-based screening tools is challenging. It is : important to use tools that are predictive of poor driving : performance (sensitivity), but also to find tools that do not : have h...

Poor sleep quality predicts deficient emotion information processing over time in early adolescence.

PubMed

Soffer-Dudek, Nirit; Sadeh, Avi; Dahl, Ronald E; Rosenblat-Stein, Shiran

2011-11-01

There is deepening understanding of the effects of sleep on emotional information processing. Emotion information processing is a key aspect of social competence, which undergoes important maturational and developmental changes in adolescence; however, most research in this area has focused on adults. Our aim was to test the links between sleep and emotion information processing during early adolescence. Sleep and facial information processing were assessed objectively during 3 assessment waves, separated by 1-year lags. Data were obtained in natural environments-sleep was assessed in home settings, and facial information processing was assessed at school. 94 healthy children (53 girls, 41 boys), aged 10 years at Time 1. N/A. Facial information processing was tested under neutral (gender identification) and emotional (emotional expression identification) conditions. Sleep was assessed in home settings using actigraphy for 7 nights at each assessment wave. Waking > 5 min was considered a night awakening. Using multilevel modeling, elevated night awakenings and decreased sleep efficiency significantly predicted poor performance only in the emotional information processing condition (e.g., b = -1.79, SD = 0.52, confidence interval: lower boundary = -2.82, upper boundary = -0.076, t(416.94) = -3.42, P = 0.001). Poor sleep quality is associated with compromised emotional information processing during early adolescence, a sensitive period in socio-emotional development.

Current Status of Adjuvant Therapy for Colon Cancer

PubMed Central

André, Thierry; Afchain, Pauline; Barrier, Alain; Blanchard, Pierre; Larsen, Annette K.; Tournigand, Christophe; Louvet, Christophe; de Gramont, Aimery

2007-01-01

Due to its frequency and persistently high mortality, colorectal cancer represents a major public health problem. The use of adjuvant chemotherapy has improved prognosis in stage III disease, but much work remains to be done in optimizing adjuvant treatment, including refinement of ability to predict disease course and response to chemotherapy. The FOLFOX4 regimen is now considered standard treatment for stage III disease. Combinations of irinotecan and 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) have not proven to be more effective than 5-FU/folinic acid (FA). Oral fluoropyrimidines (eg, capecitabine, UFT + FA) now offer an alternative to intravenous 5-FU. Adjuvant chemotherapy for stage II colorectal cancer is more controversial. Use of adjuvant chemotherapy does not appear to be justified in patients with no particular risk factors (T3N0 with no poor prognosis factor). In contrast, the risk:benefit ratio in patients with one or more poor prognostic factors (T4 tumor, occlusion or perforation, poorly differentiated tumor, vascular invasion, or < 10 lymph nodes examined) appears to favor adjuvant treatment with FOLFOX4. Ongoing adjuvant trials are evaluating bevacizumab and cetuximab combined with 5-FU and oxaliplatin, and are examining the utility of such potential predictive markers as tumor microsatellite instability and loss of heterozygosity. Duration of therapy and prevention of oxaliplatin neurotoxicity are other critical areas for future research. PMID:19262714

The 90-day prognostic value of serum cyclophilin A in traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Jin, Hang-Huang; Mao, Tian-Ming; Bai, Zhi-Qiang; Chen, Yuan; Ji, Hai-Long; Jin, Yong

2018-06-07

Cyclophilin A is involved in many inflammatory diseases and its expression is up-regulated after brain injury. We determined if serum cyclophilin A could be used as a marker for severity and 90-day outcome in patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI). Serum cyclophilin A concentrations were quantified in 105 severe TBI patients and 105 healthy individuals. Its association with Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score, 90-day mortality and 90-day poor outcome (Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 1-3) were investigated. Serum cyclophilin A concentrations were significantly higher in TBI patients than in healthy individuals. Cyclophilin A concentrations had a close relation to GCS scores and showed a high discriminatory ability for 90-day mortality and poor outcome according to area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Its AUC was in the range of GCS scores. Moreover, its combination with GCS scores significantly improved the predictive performance of GCS scores alone. In addition, serum cyclophilin A emerged as an independent predictor for 90-day mortality, overall survival and poor outcome. Increased serum cyclophilin A concentrations could reflect trauma severity and unfavorable outcome after head trauma, substantializing cyclophilin A as a potential biomarker for prognostic prediction of TBI. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alphabet Writing and Allograph Selection as Predictors of Spelling in Sentences Written by Spanish-Speaking Children Who Are Poor or Good Keyboarders.

PubMed

Peake, Christian; Diaz, Alicia; Artiles, Ceferino

This study examined the relationship and degree of predictability that the fluency of writing the alphabet from memory and the selection of allographs have on measures of fluency and accuracy of spelling in a free-writing sentence task when keyboarding. The Test Estandarizado para la Evaluación de la Escritura con Teclado ("Spanish Keyboarding Writing Test"; Jiménez, 2012) was used as the assessment tool. A sample of 986 children from Grades 1 through 3 were classified according to transcription skills measured by keyboard ability (poor vs. good) across the grades. Results demonstrated that fluency in writing the alphabet and selecting allographs mediated the differences in spelling between good and poor keyboarders in the free-writing task. Execution in the allograph selection task and writing alphabet from memory had different degrees of predictability in each of the groups in explaining the level of fluency and spelling in the free-writing task sentences, depending on the grade. These results suggest that early assessment of writing by means of the computer keyboard can provide clues and guidelines for intervention and training to strengthen specific skills to improve writing performance in the early primary grades in transcription skills by keyboarding.

Shared weight and dietary changes in parent-child dyads following family-based obesity treatment.

PubMed

Best, John R; Goldschmidt, Andrea B; Mockus-Valenzuela, Danyte S; Stein, Richard I; Epstein, Leonard H; Wilfley, Denise E

2016-01-01

The primary objective was to determine whether children and their participating parents undergoing family-based behavioral treatment (FBT) for obesity show similar dietary changes following treatment, and if so, whether these shared dietary changes explain the similarity in weight change within the parent-child dyad. Data come from a randomized controlled trial of 148 parent-child dyads who completed FBT and were followed over a 2-year maintenance phase. Energy-dense, nutrient-poor foods ("RED" foods) and fruit and vegetable intake were assessed across time. Maintenance of lower RED food intake following FBT predicted weight maintenance in children and in parents (ps < .01), and dietary and weight changes were correlated within parent-child dyads (ps < .01). Most interesting, the similarity in long-term weight maintenance between children and their parents was predicted by the similarity in long-term changes in RED food intake between children and their parents (p < .001). These findings point to the important role of maintaining low energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake for long-term weight maintenance in children and parents. Furthermore, these results suggest that the correlation between parent and child weight maintenance can be explained in part by similar long-term changes in energy-dense, nutrient-poor food intake. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

When do ego threats lead to self-regulation failure? Negative consequences of defensive high self-esteem.

PubMed

Lambird, Kathleen Hoffman; Mann, Traci

2006-09-01

High self-esteem (HSE) is increasingly recognized as heterogeneous. By measuring subtypes of HSE, the present research reevaluates the finding that HSE individuals show poor self-regulation following ego threat (Baumeister, Heatherton, & Tice, 1993). In Experiment 1, participants with HSE showed poor self-regulation after ego threat only if they also were defensive (high in self-presentation bias). In Experiment 2, two measures--self-presentation bias and implicit self-esteem--were used to subtype HSE individuals as defensive. Both operationalizations of defensive HSE predicted poor self-regulation after ego threat. The results indicate that (a) only defensive HSE individuals are prone to self-regulation failure following ego threat and (b) measures of self-presentation bias and implicit self-esteem can both be used to detect defensiveness.

The upside down world of diabetes care medical economics and what we might do to improve it.

PubMed

Harlan, David M; Hirsch, Irl B

2017-04-01

Increasingly over the past generation, the American healthcare delivery system has received consistently poor marks with regard to public health outcomes and costs. This review by two seasoned diabetes care providers is intended to shed light on the fundamental flaws we believe to underlie that poor performance, and suggest options for better outcomes and cost efficiencies. Despite major advances in diabetes management medications and tools, overall public health with regard to diabetes outcomes remains poor. Efforts focused on controlling costs appear to be exacerbating the problem. For chronic diseases like diabetes, fee-for-service care models are fundamentally flawed and predictably fail. We suggest that a major overhaul of the medical economics underlying diabetes care can improve patient outcomes and decrease costs.

A local space time kriging approach applied to a national outpatient malaria data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gething, P. W.; Atkinson, P. M.; Noor, A. M.; Gikandi, P. W.; Hay, S. I.; Nixon, M. S.

2007-10-01

Increases in the availability of reliable health data are widely recognised as essential for efforts to strengthen health-care systems in resource-poor settings worldwide. Effective health-system planning requires comprehensive and up-to-date information on a range of health metrics and this requirement is generally addressed by a Health Management Information System (HMIS) that coordinates the routine collection of data at individual health facilities and their compilation into national databases. In many resource-poor settings, these systems are inadequate and national databases often contain only a small proportion of the expected records. In this paper, we take an important health metric in Kenya (the proportion of outpatient treatments for malaria (MP)) from the national HMIS database and predict the values of MP at facilities where monthly records are missing. The available MP data were densely distributed across a spatiotemporal domain and displayed second-order heterogeneity. We used three different kriging methodologies to make cross-validation predictions of MP in order to test the effect on prediction accuracy of (a) the extension of a spatial-only to a space-time prediction approach, and (b) the replacement of a globally stationary with a locally varying random function model. Space-time kriging was found to produce predictions with 98.4% less mean bias and 14.8% smaller mean imprecision than conventional spatial-only kriging. A modification of space-time kriging that allowed space-time variograms to be recalculated for every prediction location within a spatially local neighbourhood resulted in a larger decrease in mean imprecision over ordinary kriging (18.3%) although the mean bias was reduced less (87.5%).

Cowpeas in Northern Ghana and the Factors that Predict Caregivers’ Intention to Give Them to Schoolchildren

PubMed Central

Abizari, Abdul-Razak; Pilime, Nerisa; Armar-Klemesu, Margaret; Brouwer, Inge D.

2013-01-01

Background Cowpeas are important staple legumes among the rural poor in northern Ghana. Our objectives were to assess the iron and zinc content of cowpea landraces and identify factors that predict the intention of mothers/caregivers to give cowpeas to their schoolchildren. Methods and Findings We performed biochemical analysis on 14 landraces of cowpeas and assessed the opinion of 120 caregiver-child pairs on constructs based on the combined model of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model. We used correlations and multiple regressions to measure simple associations between constructs and identify predictive constructs. Cowpea landraces contained iron and zinc in the range of 4.9–8.2 mg/100 g d.w and 2.7–4.1 mg/100 g d.w respectively. The landraces also contained high amounts of phytate (477–1110 mg/100 g d.w) and polyphenol (327–1055 mg/100 g d.w). Intention of mothers was strongly associated (rs = 0.72, P<0.001) with and predicted (β = 0.63, P<0.001) behaviour. The constructs, barriers (β = –0.42, P = 0.001) and attitudes towards behaviour (β = 0.25, P<0.028), significantly predicted intention albeit the predictive ability of the model was weak. Conclusions We conclude that some cowpea landraces from northern Ghana have appreciable amounts of iron and zinc but probably with poor bioavailability. Attitudes towards giving cowpeas and perception of barriers are important predictors of caregivers’ intention to give cowpeas to their schoolchildren. Finally our results suggest that increasing knowledge on nutritional benefits of cowpeas may increase health values caregivers hold for their children in support of giving cowpeas to schoolchildren. PMID:23951289

Examination of CRISPR/Cas9 design tools and the effect of target site accessibility on Cas9 activity.

PubMed

Lee, Ciaran M; Davis, Timothy H; Bao, Gang

2018-04-01

What is the topic of this review? In this review, we analyse the performance of recently described tools for CRISPR/Cas9 guide RNA design, in particular, design tools that predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity. What advances does it highlight? Recently, many tools designed to predict CRISPR/Cas9 activity have been reported. However, the majority of these tools lack experimental validation. Our analyses indicate that these tools have poor predictive power. Our preliminary results suggest that target site accessibility should be considered in order to develop better guide RNA design tools with improved predictive power. The recent adaptation of the clustered regulatory interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR)/CRISPR-associated protein 9 (Cas9) system for targeted genome engineering has led to its widespread application in many fields worldwide. In order to gain a better understanding of the design rules of CRISPR/Cas9 systems, several groups have carried out large library-based screens leading to some insight into sequence preferences among highly active target sites. To facilitate CRISPR/Cas9 design, these studies have spawned a plethora of guide RNA (gRNA) design tools with algorithms based solely on direct or indirect sequence features. Here, we demonstrate that the predictive power of these tools is poor, suggesting that sequence features alone cannot accurately inform the cutting efficiency of a particular CRISPR/Cas9 gRNA design. Furthermore, we demonstrate that DNA target site accessibility influences the activity of CRISPR/Cas9. With further optimization, we hypothesize that it will be possible to increase the predictive power of gRNA design tools by including both sequence and target site accessibility metrics. © 2017 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA

PubMed Central

O’Connor, Christopher D.; Lynch, Ann M.

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST. PMID:27391084

Tree Morphologic Plasticity Explains Deviation from Metabolic Scaling Theory in Semi-Arid Conifer Forests, Southwestern USA.

PubMed

Swetnam, Tyson L; O'Connor, Christopher D; Lynch, Ann M

2016-01-01

A significant concern about Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) in real forests relates to consistent differences between the values of power law scaling exponents of tree primary size measures used to estimate mass and those predicted by MST. Here we consider why observed scaling exponents for diameter and height relationships deviate from MST predictions across three semi-arid conifer forests in relation to: (1) tree condition and physical form, (2) the level of inter-tree competition (e.g. open vs closed stand structure), (3) increasing tree age, and (4) differences in site productivity. Scaling exponent values derived from non-linear least-squares regression for trees in excellent condition (n = 381) were above the MST prediction at the 95% confidence level, while the exponent for trees in good condition were no different than MST (n = 926). Trees that were in fair or poor condition, characterized as diseased, leaning, or sparsely crowned had exponent values below MST predictions (n = 2,058), as did recently dead standing trees (n = 375). Exponent value of the mean-tree model that disregarded tree condition (n = 3,740) was consistent with other studies that reject MST scaling. Ostensibly, as stand density and competition increase trees exhibited greater morphological plasticity whereby the majority had characteristically fair or poor growth forms. Fitting by least-squares regression biases the mean-tree model scaling exponent toward values that are below MST idealized predictions. For 368 trees from Arizona with known establishment dates, increasing age had no significant impact on expected scaling. We further suggest height to diameter ratios below MST relate to vertical truncation caused by limitation in plant water availability. Even with environmentally imposed height limitation, proportionality between height and diameter scaling exponents were consistent with the predictions of MST.

A local space–time kriging approach applied to a national outpatient malaria data set

PubMed Central

Gething, P.W.; Atkinson, P.M.; Noor, A.M.; Gikandi, P.W.; Hay, S.I.; Nixon, M.S.

2007-01-01

Increases in the availability of reliable health data are widely recognised as essential for efforts to strengthen health-care systems in resource-poor settings worldwide. Effective health-system planning requires comprehensive and up-to-date information on a range of health metrics and this requirement is generally addressed by a Health Management Information System (HMIS) that coordinates the routine collection of data at individual health facilities and their compilation into national databases. In many resource-poor settings, these systems are inadequate and national databases often contain only a small proportion of the expected records. In this paper, we take an important health metric in Kenya (the proportion of outpatient treatments for malaria (MP)) from the national HMIS database and predict the values of MP at facilities where monthly records are missing. The available MP data were densely distributed across a spatiotemporal domain and displayed second-order heterogeneity. We used three different kriging methodologies to make cross-validation predictions of MP in order to test the effect on prediction accuracy of (a) the extension of a spatial-only to a space–time prediction approach, and (b) the replacement of a globally stationary with a locally varying random function model. Space–time kriging was found to produce predictions with 98.4% less mean bias and 14.8% smaller mean imprecision than conventional spatial-only kriging. A modification of space–time kriging that allowed space–time variograms to be recalculated for every prediction location within a spatially local neighbourhood resulted in a larger decrease in mean imprecision over ordinary kriging (18.3%) although the mean bias was reduced less (87.5%). PMID:19424510

What predicts performance during clinical psychology training?

PubMed

Scior, Katrina; Bradley, Caroline E; Potts, Henry W W; Woolf, Katherine; de C Williams, Amanda C

2014-06-01

While the question of who is likely to be selected for clinical psychology training has been studied, evidence on performance during training is scant. This study explored data from seven consecutive intakes of the UK's largest clinical psychology training course, aiming to identify what factors predict better or poorer outcomes. Longitudinal cross-sectional study using prospective and retrospective data. Characteristics at application were analysed in relation to a range of in-course assessments for 274 trainee clinical psychologists who had completed or were in the final stage of their training. Trainees were diverse in age, pre-training experience, and academic performance at A-level (advanced level certificate required for university admission), but not in gender or ethnicity. Failure rates across the three performance domains (academic, clinical, research) were very low, suggesting that selection was successful in screening out less suitable candidates. Key predictors of good performance on the course were better A-levels and better degree class. Non-white students performed less well on two outcomes. Type and extent of pre-training clinical experience on outcomes had varied effects on outcome. Research supervisor ratings emerged as global indicators and predicted nearly all outcomes, but may have been biased as they were retrospective. Referee ratings predicted only one of the seven outcomes examined, and interview ratings predicted none of the outcomes. Predicting who will do well or poorly in clinical psychology training is complex. Interview and referee ratings may well be successful in screening out unsuitable candidates, but appear to be a poor guide to performance on the course. © 2013 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the British Psychological Society.

Use of sequential endorectal US to predict the tumor response of preoperative chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Dou, Lizhou; Zhang, Yueming; Jin, Jing; Wang, Guiqi; Xiao, Qin; Li, Yexiong; Wang, Xin; Ren, Hua; Fang, Hui; Wang, Weihu; Wang, Shulian; Liu, Yueping; Song, Yongwen

2017-03-01

Accurate prediction of the response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) potentially assists in the individualized selection of treatment. Endorectal US (ERUS) is widely used for the pretreatment staging of rectal cancer, but its use for preoperatively predicting the effects of CRT is not well evaluated because of the inflammation, necrosis, and fibrosis induced by CRT. This study assessed the value of sequential ERUS in predicting the efficacy of preoperative CRT for locally advanced rectal cancer. Forty-one patients with clinical stage II/III rectal adenocarcinoma were enrolled prospectively. Radiotherapy was delivered to the pelvis with concurrent chemotherapy of capecitabine and oxaliplatin. Total mesorectal excision was performed 6 to 8 weeks later. EUS measurements of primary tumor maximum diameter were performed before (ERUS1), during (ERUS2), and 6 to 8 weeks after (ERUS3) CRT, and the ratios of these were calculated. Correlations between ERUS values, tumor regression grade (TRG), T down-staging rate, and pathologic complete response (pCR) rate were assessed, and survival was analyzed. There was no significant correlation between ERUS2/ERUS1 and TRG. The value of ERUS3/ERUS1 correlated with pCR rate and TRG but not T down-staging rate. An ERUS3 value of 6.3 mm and ERUS3/ERUS1 of 52% were used as the cut-off for predicting pCR, and patients were divided into good and poor prognosis groups. Although not statistically significant, 3-year recurrence and survival rates of the good prognosis group were better than those of the poor prognosis group. Sequential ERUS may predict therapeutic efficacy of preoperative CRT for locally advanced rectal cancer. (Clinical trial registration number: NCT01582750.). Copyright © 2017 American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Eastern Whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferus) are positively associated with low elevation forest In the central Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slover, Christina L.; Katzner, Todd E.

2016-01-01

Populations of the Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) are thought to be declining because of a range of potential factors including habitat loss, pesticide use, and predation. However, this species is nocturnal and, as a consequence, it is poorly studied, and its population status is not well assessed by traditional diurnal bird surveys. We used nocturnal road surveys to study habitat associations and distribution of Eastern Whip-poor-wills to better understand and contextualize their population status and to provide a framework for subsequent research and management. We used occupancy models to associate presence of Eastern Whip-poor-wills with habitat characteristics. Global models with habitat associations at a radius of 1600 m (1.0-ha area) were the best supported by the data, suggesting that this was the scale at which the species responded to the habitat parameters we measured. At this scale, Eastern Whip-poor-wills most frequently occupied areas lower in elevation and characterized by forested, herbaceous, and wetland cover types. In contrast, high elevation conifer forest communities had substantially fewer Eastern Whip-poor-wills. Detection rates were positively correlated with moon visibility and negatively correlated with noise. We used the results of our surveys to generate a regional model to predict distributions of Eastern Whip-poor-wills and that can be used as a framework for future management. Our results suggest that succession of agricultural fields and other clearings into forested habitats with dense understory may be a contributing factor to ongoing declines of Eastern Whip-poor-wills.

Decision-making deficits in normal elderly persons associated with executive personality disturbances.

PubMed

Nguyen, Christopher M; Barrash, Joseph; Koenigs, Anna L; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L

2013-11-01

The problems that some community-dwelling elderly persons develop in real-world decision-making may have disastrous consequences for their health and financial well-being. Investigations across the adult life span have identified personality as an important individual differences variable that is related to decision-making ability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personality characteristics, as rated by an informant, and complex decision-making performance among elderly persons. It was hypothesized that deficits in decision-making would be associated with personality characteristics reflecting weak executive functioning (Lack of Planning, Poor Judgment, Lack of Persistence, Perseveration, Lack of Initiative, Impulsivity, and Indecisiveness). Fifty-eight elderly persons participated. Their health and cognitive status were deemed intact via comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The Iowa Scales of Personality, completed by an informant, was used to assess personality characteristics, and the Iowa Gambling Task, completed by the participant, was used to assess complex decision-making abilities. Longstanding disturbances in executive personality characteristics were found to be associated with poor decision-making, and these disturbances remained predictive of poor decision-making even after taking into consideration demographic, neuropsychological, and mood factors. Acquired personality disturbances did not add significantly to prediction after longstanding disturbances were taken into account. Disturbances in other dimensions of personality were not significantly associated with poor decision-making. Our study suggests that attentiveness to the personality correlates of difficulties with aspects of executive functioning over the adult years could enhance the ability to identify older individuals at risk for problems with real-world decision-making.

Self-Reported Work Ability Predicts Rehabilitation Measures, Disability Pensions, Other Welfare Benefits, and Work Participation: Longitudinal Findings from a Sample of German Employees.

PubMed

Bethge, Matthias; Spanier, Katja; Peters, Elke; Michel, Elliot; Radoschewski, Michael

2017-09-27

Purpose The study examined the performance of the Work Ability Index in predicting rehabilitation measures and disability pensions, sickness absence and unemployment benefits, and work participation among a sample of workers previously receiving sickness absence benefits. Methods Workers aged 40 to 54 years who received sickness absence benefits in 2012 completed the Work Ability Index in 2013. Outcomes were extracted from administrative data records. Results Data for 2149 participants were included (mean age: 47.8 years; 54.4% women). Mean follow-up was 19 months. Work Ability Index scores were poor (7-27 points) in 21% of the participants, and moderate (28-36 points) in 38.4%. In all, 224 rehabilitation measures and 35 disability pensions were approved. Fully adjusted analyses showed increased risk of rehabilitation measures in workers with poor (HR 4.55; 95% CI 3.14-6.60) and moderate scores (HR 2.08; 95% CI 1.43-3.01) compared to workers with good or excellent scores (37-49 points). The risk of a disability pension increased significantly for workers with poor scores (HR 7.78; 95% CI 2.59-23.35). In addition, poor scores were prospectively associated with a longer duration of sickness absence and employment benefits, and fewer employment days and less income from regular employment. Conclusions The Work Ability Index is a potential tool for following up workers who already have an increased risk of permanent work disability due to previous long-term sickness absence.

Can Fetuin-A Be a Marker for Insulin Resistance and Poor Glycemic Control in Children with Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus?

PubMed

Şiraz, Ülkü Gül; Doğan, Murat; Hatipoğlu, Nihal; Muhtaroğlu, Sabahattin; Kurtoğlu, Selim

2017-12-15

Metabolic impairment in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) with poor glycemic control causes insulin resistance, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), atherosclerosis, and increased carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT). Fetuin-A has a protective effect in cardiovascular disorders and is increased in hepatosteatosis. We aimed to investigate the reliability of fetuin-A levels in early detection of diabetic complications in children with T1DM and to identify a cut-off value that may show poor metabolic control. The study included 80 patients who had T1DM for at least 5 years and who had no chronic complications or an auto-immune disorder. Blood samples were drawn to measure hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), biochemical parameters, and fetuin-A levels. Anthropometric parameters were also measured. Percent body fat was calculated. Hepatosteatosis and CIMT were assessed by sonography. Mean age of the patients was 13.5 years. Grade 1 hepatosteatosis was detected in 10%. Patients were stratified into 2 groups based on presence of NAFLD. Fetuin-A level was increased in patients with NAFLD. We identified a fetuin-A cut-off value (514.28 ng/mL; sensitivity: 47.34; specificity: 96.72) that may predict NAFLD. HbA1c and total cholesterol levels were found to be higher in patients with fetuin-A levels above higher the cut-off value. Fetuin-A is a reliable parameter in the prediction of complications and poor glycemic control in patients with T1DM.

Early language delay phenotypes and correlation with later linguistic abilities.

PubMed

Petinou, Kakia; Spanoudis, George

2014-01-01

The present study focused on examining the continuity and directionality of language skills in late talkers (LTs) and identifying factors which might contribute to language outcomes at the age of 3 years. Subjects were 23 Cypriot-Greek-speaking toddlers classified as LTs and 24 age-matched typically developing peers (TDs). Participants were assessed at 28, 32 and 36 months, using various linguistic measures such as size of receptive and expressive vocabulary, mean length of utterance (MLU) of words and number of consonants produced. Data on otitis media familial history were also analyzed. The ANOVA results indicated parallel developmental profiles between the two groups, with a language lag characterizing LTs. Concurrent correlations between measures showed that poor phonetic inventories in the LT group at 28 months predicted poor MLU at the ages of 32 and 36 months. Significant cross-lagged correlations supported the finding that poor phonetic inventories at 28 months served as a good predictor for MLU and expressive vocabulary at the age of 32 and for MLU at 36 months. The results highlight the negative effect of early language delay on language skills up to the age of 3 years and lend support to the current literature regarding the universal linguistic picture of early and persistent language delay. Based on the current results, poor phonetic inventories at the age of intake might serve as a predictive factor for language outcomes at the age of 36 months. Finally, the findings are discussed in view of the need for further research with a focus on more language-sensitive tools in testing later language outcomes. © 2014 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Decision-Making Deficits in Normal Elderly Persons Associated with Executive Personality Disturbances

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Christopher M.; Barrash, Joseph; Koenigs, Anna L.; Bechara, Antoine; Tranel, Daniel; Denburg, Natalie L.

2014-01-01

Background The problems that some community-dwelling elderly develop in real-world decision-making may have disastrous consequences for their health and financial well-being. Investigations across the adult life span have identified personality as an important individual differences variable that is related to decision-making ability. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between personality characteristics, as rated by an informant, and complex decision-making performance among elders. It was hypothesized that deficits in decision-making would be associated with personality characteristics reflecting weak executive functioning (Lack of Planning, Poor Judgment, Lack of Persistence, Perseveration, Lack of Initiative, Impulsivity, and Indecisiveness). Methods Fifty-eight elderly persons participated. Their health and cognitive status were deemed intact via comprehensive neuropsychological evaluation. The Iowa Scales of Personality, completed by an informant, was used to assess personality characteristics, and the Iowa Gambling Task, completed by the participant, was used to assess complex decision-making abilities. Results Longstanding disturbances in executive personality characteristics were found to be associated with poor decision-making, and these disturbances remained predictive of poor decision-making even after taking into consideration demographic, neuropsychological, and mood factors. Acquired personality disturbances did not add significantly to prediction after longstanding disturbances were taken into account. Disturbances in other dimensions of personality were not significantly associated with poor decision-making. Conclusions Our study suggests that attentiveness to the personality correlates of difficulties with aspects of executive functioning over the adult years could enhance the ability to identify older individuals at risk for problems with real-world decision-making. PMID:23906413

Stellar Yields of Rotating First Stars. II. Pair-instability Supernovae and Comparison with Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Koh; Yoshida, Takashi; Umeda, Hideyuki

2018-04-01

Recent theory predicts that first stars are born with a massive initial mass of ≳100 M ⊙. Pair-instability supernova (PISN) is a common fate for such massive stars. Our final goal is to prove the existence of PISNe and thus the high-mass nature of the initial mass function in the early universe by conducting abundance profiling, in which properties of a hypothetical first star is constrained by metal-poor star abundances. In order to determine reliable and useful abundances, we investigate the PISN nucleosynthesis taking both rotating and nonrotating progenitors for the first time. We show that the initial and CO core mass ranges for PISNe depend on the envelope structures: nonmagnetic rotating models developing inflated envelopes have a lower shifted CO mass range of ∼70–125 M ⊙, while nonrotating and magnetic rotating models with deflated envelopes have a range of ∼80–135 M ⊙. However, we find no significant difference in explosive yields from rotating and nonrotating progenitors, except for large nitrogen production in nonmagnetic rotating models. Furthermore, we conduct the first systematic comparison between theoretical yields and a large sample of metal-poor star abundances. We find that the predicted low [Na/Mg] ∼ ‑1.5 and high [Ca/Mg] ∼0.5–1.3 abundance ratios are the most important to discriminate PISN signatures from normal metal-poor star abundances, and confirm that no currently observed metal-poor star matches with the PISN abundance. An extensive discussion on the nondetection is presented.

The impact of insight in a first-episode mania with psychosis population on outcome at 18 months.

PubMed

Smith, Leo T; Shelton, Clare L; Berk, Michael; Hasty, Melissa K; Cotton, Sue M; Henry, Lisa; Daglas, Rothanthi; Gentle, Ellen; McGorry, Patrick D; Macneil, Craig A; Conus, Philippe

2014-01-01

To explore whether poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features was predictive of poor psychosocial and clinical outcomes at 18 months. Secondary analysis was performed on data collected during an 8-week RCT comparing the efficacy of olanzapine versus chlorpromazine as an adjunct to lithium, and at 18-month follow-up. 74 participants were divided into three groups (no insight, partial insight, and full insight) according to the insight item from the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). Differences between these three groups were examined at baseline and at 18 months on measures of symptoms (YMRS, HAMD-21, and CGI-S), and social and occupational functioning (SOFAS). Baseline differences between the three groups were determined using general linear models and chi-squared analyses. Group differences from baseline to 18-month follow-up were determined using repeated measures general linear models. At baseline there were significant differences between the three insight groups in terms of mania and functioning, but at 18 months all groups had improved significantly in terms of psychopathology, mania, depression and social and occupational functioning. There were no significant differences between the three groups at study completion with respect to these domains. The study was limited by the lack of availability of a more detailed rating scale for insight, and it did not account for the duration of untreated psychosis (DUI). Poor initial insight during a first episode of mania with psychotic features does not predict poor clinical and psychosocial outcome at 18 months. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A prospective longitudinal study of children's theory of mind and adolescent involvement in bullying.

PubMed

Shakoor, Sania; Jaffee, Sara R; Bowes, Lucy; Ouellet-Morin, Isabelle; Andreou, Penelope; Happé, Francesca; Moffitt, Terrie E; Arseneault, Louise

2012-03-01

Theory of mind (ToM) allows the understanding and prediction of other people's behaviours based on their mental states (e.g. beliefs). It is important for healthy social relationships and thus may contribute towards children's involvement in bullying. The present study investigated whether children involved in bullying during early adolescence had poor ToM in childhood. Participants were members of the Environmental Risk (E-Risk) Longitudinal Twin Study, a nationally representative sample of 2,232 children and their families. We visited families when children were 5, 7, 10 and 12 years. ToM was assessed when the children were 5 years using eight standardized tasks. Identification of those children who were involved in bullying as victims, bullies and bully-victims using mothers', teachers' and children's reports was carried out when they were 12 years' old. Poor ToM predicted becoming a victim (effect size, d = 0.26), bully (d = 0.25) or bully-victim (d = 0.44) in early adolescence. These associations remained for victims and bully-victims when child-specific (e.g. IQ) and family factors (e.g. child maltreatment) were controlled for. Emotional and behavioural problems during middle childhood did not modify the association between poor ToM and adolescent bullying experiences. Identifying and supporting children with poor ToM early in life could help reduce their vulnerability for involvement in bullying and thus limit its adverse effects on mental health. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry © 2011 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Clinical value of the VMI supplemental tests: a modified replication study.

PubMed

Avi-Itzhak, Tamara; Obler, Doris Richard

2008-10-01

To carry out a modified replication of the study performed by Kulp and Sortor evaluating the clinical value of the information provided by Beery's visual-motor supplemental tests of Visual Perception (VP) and Motor Coordination (MC) in normally developed children. The objectives were to (a) estimate the correlations among the three tests scores; (b) assess the predictive power of the VP and MC scores in explaining the variance in Visual-Motor Integration (VMI) scores; and (c) examine whether poor performance on the VMI is related to poor performance on VP or MC. METHODS.: A convenience sample of 71 children ages 4 and 5 years (M = 4.62 +/- 0.43) participated in the study. The supplemental tests significantly (F = 9.59; dF = 2; p < or = 0. 001) explained 22% of the variance in VMI performance. Only VP was significantly related to VMI (beta = 0.39; T = 3.49) accounting for the total amount of explained variance. Using the study population norms, 11 children (16% of total sample) did poorly on the VMI; of those 11, 73% did poorly on the VP, and none did poorly on the MC. None of these 11 did poorly on both the VP and MC. Nine percent of total sample who did poorly on the VP performed within the norm on the VMI. Thirteen percent who performed poorly on the MC performed within the norm on the VMI. Using the VMI published norms, 14 children (20% of total sample) who did poorly on the VP performed within the norm on the VMI. Forty-eight percent who did poorly on MC performed within the norm on the VMI. Findings supported Kulp and Sortor's conclusions that each area should be individually evaluated during visual-perceptual assessment of children regardless of performance on the VMI.

Mortality, morbidity and refractoriness prediction in status epilepticus: Comparison of STESS and EMSE scores.

PubMed

Giovannini, Giada; Monti, Giulia; Tondelli, Manuela; Marudi, Andrea; Valzania, Franco; Leitinger, Markus; Trinka, Eugen; Meletti, Stefano

2017-03-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is a neurological emergency, characterized by high short-term morbidity and mortality. We evaluated and compared two scores that have been developed to evaluate status epilepticus prognosis: STESS (Status Epilepticus Severity Score) and EMSE (Epidemiology based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus). A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive patients with SE admitted between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographics, clinical variables, STESS-3 and -4, and EMSE-64 scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. SE drug response, 30-day mortality and morbidity were the outcomes measure. 162 episodes of SE were observed: 69% had a STESS ≥3; 34% had a STESS ≥4; 51% patients had an EMSE ≥64. The 30-days mortality was 31.5%: EMSE-64 showed greater negative predictive value (NPV) (97.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) (59.8%) and accuracy in the prediction of death than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001). At 30 days, the clinical condition had deteriorated in 59% of the cases: EMSE-64 showed greater NPV (71.3%), PPV (87.8%) and accuracy than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (p<0.001) in the prediction of this outcome. In 23% of all cases, status epilepticus proved refractory to non-anaesthetic treatment. All three scales showed a high NPV (EMSE-64: 87.3%; STESS-4: 89.4%; STESS-3: 87.5%) but a low PPV (EMSE-64: 40.9%; STESS-4: 52.9%; STESS-3: 32%) for the prediction of refractoriness to first and second line drugs. This means that accuracy for the prediction of refractoriness was equally poor for all scales. EMSE-64 appears superior to STESS-3 and STESS-4 in the prediction of 30-days mortality and morbidity. All scales showed poor accuracy in the prediction of response to first and second line antiepileptic drugs. At present, there are no reliable scores capable of predicting treatment responsiveness. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Neutron-Capture Elements in Very Metal-Poor Halo Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

French, R. S.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.; Lawler, J. E.; Primas, F.; Beers, T. C.; Truran, J. W.

2000-05-01

Abundances of the most massive stable elements (Os -> Pb or 76 <= Z <= 82) in metal-poor stars can provide crucial information about the so-called ``third neutron-capture peak,'' and are critical to the radioactive-dating technique that uses unstable thorium and uranium as chronometers. As the relevant transitions occur in the UV and are inaccessable to ground-based telescopes, we have obtained high resolution (R ~= 30,000) UV spectra of 10 very metal-poor (--3.0 <= [Fe/H] <= --1.4) halo giants using the Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) aboard the Hubble Space Telescope. Using iterative spectrum synthesis techniques, we derive abundances for some of these heavy elements. We compare our abundances to those predicted for very metal-poor stars based on a scaled solar system rapid-process (production in rapid neutron-capture synthesis events, such as occurs during supernovae explosions). This research is supported by NASA STScI grant GO-08342 and NSF grants AST-9618364 to C.S. and AST-9618332 to J.J.C.

Multidimensional Poverty and Health Status as a Predictor of Chronic Income Poverty.

PubMed

Callander, Emily J; Schofield, Deborah J

2015-12-01

Longitudinal analysis of Wave 5 to 10 of the nationally representative Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia dataset was undertaken to assess whether multidimensional poverty status can predict chronic income poverty. Of those who were multidimensionally poor (low income plus poor health or poor health and insufficient education attainment) in 2007, and those who were in income poverty only (no other forms of disadvantage) in 2007, a greater proportion of those in multidimensional poverty continued to be in income poverty for the subsequent 5 years through to 2012. People who were multidimensionally poor in 2007 had 2.17 times the odds of being in income poverty each year through to 2012 than those who were in income poverty only in 2005 (95% CI: 1.23-3.83). Multidimensional poverty measures are a useful tool for policymakers to identify target populations for policies aiming to improve equity and reduce chronic disadvantage. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Coexistence of two electronic phases in LaTiO3+δ (0.01⩽δ⩽0.12) and their evolution with δ

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, H. D.; Goodenough, J. B.

2005-04-01

Although LaTiO3+δ(0.01⩽δ⩽0.12) is single-phase to powder x-ray diffraction, its properties reveal that a hole-poor strongly correlated electronic phase coexists with a hole-rich itinerant-electron phase. With δ⩽0.03 , the hole-rich phase exists as a minority phase of isolated, mobile itinerant-electron clusters embedded in the hole-poor phase. With δ⩾0.08 , isolated hole-poor clusters are embedded in an itinerant-electron matrix. As δ>0.08 increases, the hole-poor clusters become smaller and more isolated until they are reduced to superparamagnetic strong-correlation fluctuations by δ=0.12 . This behavior is consistent with prediction from the virial theorem of a first-order phase change at the crossover from localized (or strongly correlated) to itinerant electronic behavior, a smaller equilibrium (Ti-O) bond length being in the itinerant-electron phase. Accordingly, the variation of volume with oxidation state does not obey Végard’s law; the itinerant-electron minority phase exerts a compressive force on the hole-poor matrix, and the hole-poor minority phase exerts a tensile stress on the hole-rich matrix.

Methods and kits for predicting a response to an erythropoietic agent

DOEpatents

Merchant, Michael L.; Klein, Jon B.; Brier, Michael E.; Gaweda, Adam E.

2015-06-16

Methods for predicting a response to an erythropoietic agent in a subject include providing a biological sample from the subject, and determining an amount in the sample of at least one peptide selected from the group consisting of SEQ ID NOS: 1-17. If there is a measurable difference in the amount of the at least one peptide in the sample, when compared to a control level of the same peptide, the subject is then predicted to have a good response or a poor response to the erythropoietic agent. Kits for predicting a response to an erythropoietic agent are further provided and include one or more antibodies, or fragments thereof, that specifically recognize a peptide of SEQ ID NOS: 1-17.

Cigarette smoking in a student sample: neurocognitive and clinical correlates.

PubMed

Dinn, Wayne M; Aycicegi, Ayse; Harris, Catherine L

2004-01-01

Why do adolescents begin to smoke in the face of profound health risks and aggressive antismoking campaigns? The present study tested predictions based on two theoretical models of tobacco use in young adults: (1) the self-medication model; and (2) the orbitofrontal/disinhibition model. Investigators speculated that a significant number of smokers were self-medicating since nicotine possesses mood-elevating and hedonic properties. The self-medication model predicts that smokers will demonstrate increased rates of psychopathology relative to nonsmokers. Similarly, researchers have suggested that individuals with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) employ nicotine to enhance cognitive function. The ADHD/self-medication model predicts that smokers will perform poorly on tests of executive function and report a greater number of ADHD symptoms. A considerable body of research indicates that tobacco use is associated with several related personality traits including extraversion, impulsivity, risk taking, sensation seeking, novelty seeking, and antisocial personality features. Antisocial behavior and related personality traits as well as tobacco use may reflect, in part, a failure to effectively employ reward and punishment cues to guide behavior. This failure may reflect orbitofrontal dysfunction. The orbitofrontal/disinhibition model predicts that smokers will perform poorly on neurocognitive tasks considered sensitive to orbitofrontal dysfunction and will obtain significantly higher scores on measures of behavioral disinhibition and antisocial personality relative to nonsmokers. To test these predictions, we administered a battery of neuropsychological tests, clinical scales, and personality questionnaires to university student smokers and nonsmokers. Results did not support the self-medication model or the ADHD/self-medication model; however, findings were consistent with the orbitofrontal/disinhibition model.

Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Jeon, Kyeongman; Yoo, Hongseok; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Park, Hye Yun; Koh, Won-Jung; Suh, Gee Young; Guallar, Eliseo

2017-10-01

Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration. The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6). FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Predictors of poor outcome despite recanalization: a multiple regression analysis of the NASA registry.

PubMed

Linfante, Italo; Starosciak, Amy K; Walker, Gail R; Dabus, Guilherme; Castonguay, Alicia C; Gupta, Rishi; Sun, Chung-Huan J; Martin, Coleman; Holloway, William E; Mueller-Kronast, Nils; English, Joey D; Malisch, Tim W; Marden, Franklin A; Bozorgchami, Hormozd; Xavier, Andrew; Rai, Ansaar T; Froehler, Michael T; Badruddin, Aamir; Nguyen, Thanh N; Taqi, M Asif; Abraham, Michael G; Janardhan, Vallabh; Shaltoni, Hashem; Novakovic, Roberta; Yoo, Albert J; Abou-Chebl, Alex; Chen, Peng R; Britz, Gavin W; Kaushal, Ritesh; Nanda, Ashish; Issa, Mohammad A; Nogueira, Raul G; Zaidat, Osama O

2016-03-01

Mechanical thrombectomy with stent-retrievers results in higher recanalization rates compared with previous devices. Despite successful recanalization rates (Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (TICI) score ≥2b) of 70-83%, good outcomes by 90-day modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤2 are achieved in only 40-55% of patients. We evaluated predictors of poor outcomes (mRS >2) despite successful recanalization (TICI ≥2b) in the North American Solitaire Stent Retriever Acute Stroke (NASA) registry. Logistic regression was used to evaluate baseline characteristics and recanalization outcomes for association with 90-day mRS score of 0-2 (good outcome) vs 3-6 (poor outcome). Univariate tests were carried out for all factors. A multivariable model was developed based on backwards selection from the factors with at least marginal significance (p≤0.10) on univariate analysis with the retention criterion set at p≤0.05. The model was refit to minimize the number of cases excluded because of missing covariate values; the c-statistic was a measure of predictive power. Of 354 patients, 256 (72.3%) were recanalized successfully. Based on 234 recanalized patients evaluated for 90-day mRS score, 116 (49.6%) had poor outcomes. Univariate analysis identified an increased risk of poor outcome for age ≥80 years, occlusion site of internal carotid artery (ICA)/basilar artery, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score ≥18, history of diabetes mellitus, TICI 2b, use of rescue therapy, not using a balloon-guided catheter or intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV t-PA), and >30 min to recanalization (p≤0.05). In multivariable analysis, age ≥80 years, occlusion site ICA/basilar, initial NIHSS score ≥18, diabetes, absence of IV t-PA, ≥3 passes, and use of rescue therapy were significant independent predictors of poor 90-day outcome in a model with good predictive power (c-index=0.80). Age, occlusion site, high NIHSS, diabetes, no IV t-PA, ≥3 passes, and use of rescue therapy are associated with poor 90-day outcome despite successful recanalization. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Preliminary Derivation of Test Item Clusters for Predicting Injuries, Poor Physical Performance, and Overall Attrition in Basic Combat Training

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-01

prior to BCT, and older age. Less consistently demonstrated intrinsic risk factors include lower levels of muscular strength, higher body fat or... fractures . Seasonal variations in injury rates appear to occur in BCT with higher overall rates in the summer and lower rates in the fall. A...2000 Dec 13;284(22):2912-8. 13. Ferreira G, Carson JL. Clinical prediction rules for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism . Am J Med. 2002 Sep;113(4

The Potential Utility of Urinary Biomarkers for Risk Prediction in Combat Casualties: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-06-16

are associated with poor outcomes, including death and the need for renal replacement therapy. Methods : We conducted a prospective, observational study...penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 16 JUN 2015...2. REPORT TYPE N/A 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Potential Utility of Urinary Biomarkers for Risk Prediction in Combat

[Evaluation of prognosis in purulent meningitis-myelitis based on the Glasgow Coma Scale].

PubMed

Garlicki, A; Caban, J; Bociaga, M; Krukowiecki, J; Warunek, W; Skwara, P

1996-01-01

We presented data from the investigation of the usefulness of the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting the outcome of bacterial meningitis. Patients who aggregated high Glasgow Coma Scale scores had a good prognosis, whereas those patients with low scores had a very poor prognosis, inspite of this limitation the Glasgow Coma Scale seems to be a valuable supplement to the physical examination of patients with bacterial meningitis and may help in predicting the outcome of the disease.

Prediction failure of a wolf landscape model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

2006-01-01

I compared 101 wolf (Canis lupus) pack territories formed in Wisconsin during 1993-2004 to the logistic regression predictive model of Mladenoff et al. (1995, 1997, 1999). Of these, 60% were located in putative habitat suitabilities 50% remained unoccupied by known packs after 24 years of recolonization. This model was a poor predictor of wolf re-colonizing locations in Wisconsin, apparently because it failed to consider the adaptability of wolves. Such models should be used cautiously in wolf-management or restoration plans.

Predictive factors for intrauterine growth restriction.

PubMed

Albu, A R; Anca, A F; Horhoianu, V V; Horhoianu, I A

2014-06-15

Reduced fetal growth is seen in about 10% of the pregnancies but only a minority has a pathological background and is known as intrauterine growth restriction or fetal growth restriction (IUGR / FGR). Increased fetal and neonatal mortality and morbidity as well as adult pathologic conditions are often associated to IUGR. Risk factors for IUGR are easy to assess but have poor predictive value. For the diagnostic purpose, biochemical serum markers, ultrasound and Doppler study of uterine and spiral arteries, placental volume and vascularization, first trimester growth pattern are object of assessment today. Modern evaluations propose combined algorithms using these strategies, all with the goal of a better prediction of risk pregnancies.

The study of PDF turbulence models in combustion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Andrew T.

1991-01-01

The accurate prediction of turbulent combustion is still beyond reach for today's computation techniques. It is the consensus of the combustion profession that the predictions of chemically reacting flow were poor if conventional turbulence models were used. The main difficulty lies in the fact that the reaction rate is highly nonlinear, and the use of averaged temperature, pressure, and density produces excessively large errors. The probability density function (PDF) method is the only alternative at the present time that uses local instant values of the temperature, density, etc. in predicting chemical reaction rate, and thus it is the only viable approach for turbulent combustion calculations.

Climate Predictions Accelerate Decline for Threatened Macrozamia Cycads from Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

Laidlaw, Melinda J.; Forster, Paul I.

2012-01-01

Changes in the potential habitat of five allopatric species of threatened Macrozamia cycads under scenarios of increased ambient temperature were examined. A lack of seed dispersal, poor recruitment, low seedling survival, obligate pollinator mutualisms and continued habitat loss have led to extant populations being largely restricted to refugia. Models predict that the area of suitable habitat will further contract and move upslope, resulting in a reduced incidence within protected areas with increasing annual mean temperature. Areas of potential habitat for all five species are also predicted to become increasingly isolated from one another, further reducing the exchange between metapopulations and subpopulations, exacerbating existing threatening processes. PMID:24832522

More About Vector Adaptive/Predictive Coding Of Speech

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedrey, Thomas C.; Gersho, Allen

1992-01-01

Report presents additional information about digital speech-encoding and -decoding system described in "Vector Adaptive/Predictive Encoding of Speech" (NPO-17230). Summarizes development of vector adaptive/predictive coding (VAPC) system and describes basic functions of algorithm. Describes refinements introduced enabling receiver to cope with errors. VAPC algorithm implemented in integrated-circuit coding/decoding processors (codecs). VAPC and other codecs tested under variety of operating conditions. Tests designed to reveal effects of various background quiet and noisy environments and of poor telephone equipment. VAPC found competitive with and, in some respects, superior to other 4.8-kb/s codecs and other codecs of similar complexity.

A semi-quantitative World Health Organization grading scheme evaluating worst tumor differentiation predicts disease-free survival in oral squamous carcinoma patients.

PubMed

Jain, Dhruv; Tikku, Gargi; Bhadana, Pallavi; Dravid, Chandrashekhar; Grover, Rajesh Kumar

2017-08-01

We investigated World Health Organization (WHO) grading and pattern of invasion based histological schemes as independent predictors of disease-free survival, in oral squamous carcinoma patients. Tumor resection slides of eighty-seven oral squamous carcinoma patients [pTNM: I&II/III&IV-32/55] were evaluated. Besides examining various patterns of invasion, invasive front grade, predominant and worst (highest) WHO grade were recorded. For worst WHO grading, poor-undifferentiated component was estimated semi-quantitatively at advancing tumor edge (invasive growth front) in histology sections. Tumor recurrence was observed in 31 (35.6%) cases. The 2-year disease-free survival was 47% [Median: 656; follow-up: 14-1450] days. Using receiver operating characteristic curves, we defined poor-undifferentiated component exceeding 5% of tumor as the cutoff to assign an oral squamous carcinoma as grade-3, when following worst WHO grading. Kaplan-Meier curves for disease-free survival revealed prognostic association with nodal involvement, tumor size, worst WHO grading; most common pattern of invasion and invasive pattern grading score (sum of two most predominant patterns of invasion). In further multivariate analysis, tumor size (>2.5cm) and worst WHO grading (grade-3 tumors) independently predicted reduced disease-free survival [HR, 2.85; P=0.028 and HR, 3.37; P=0.031 respectively]. The inter-observer agreement was moderate for observers who semi-quantitatively estimated percentage of poor-undifferentiated morphology in oral squamous carcinomas. Our results support the value of semi-quantitative method to assign tumors as grade-3 with worst WHO grading for predicting reduced disease-free survival. Despite limitations, of the various histological tumor stratification schemes, WHO grading holds adjunctive value for its prognostic role, ease and universal familiarity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elevated AQP1 Expression Is Associated With Unfavorable Oncologic Outcome in Patients With Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Li, Chunxiang; Li, Xiaofu; Wu, Linfeng; Jiang, Zheng

2017-08-01

Hilar cholangiocarcinomas are malignant tumors with a poor prognosis. An early prediction of prognosis for patients may help us determine treatment strategies. Aquaporin 1 is a cell membrane channel involved in water transport, cell motility, and proliferation. Increasing evidences showed that aquaporin 1 played a role in tumor prognosis and diagnosis. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the role of aquaporin 1 in hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Here, we analyzed messenger RNA expression data of genes function as bile secretion in a data set of 169 samples using the R2 bioinformatic platform ( http://r2.amc.nl ). Quantitative polymerase chain reaction was performed to verify the gene expression in 17 hilar cholangiocarcinoma samples. Immunohistochemistry was also performed in a series of specimens from 62 hilar cholangiocarcinoma tissues, and its clinical significance was assessed by clinical correlation and Kaplan-Meier analyses. All data were analyzed using the R2 web application, aquaporin 1 was selected for further analysis. The significant expression variation of aquaporin 1 among 17 cases with cholangiocarcinoma was also found using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The expression level of aquaporin 1 protein significantly correlated with tumor-node-metastasis stage ( P = .002) and overall survival time ( P = .010). Higher aquaporin 1 expression indicated poor prognostic outcomes ( P <.05, log-rank test). Multivariate analysis also showed strong aquaporin 1 protein expression was an independent adverse prognosticator in hilar cholangiocarcinoma ( P = .002). This study highlighted the prognostic value of aquaporin 1 in hilar cholangiocarcinoma. Strong aquaporin 1 expression predicts poor survival, regardless of pathological features. Immunohistochemical detection of aquaporin 1, as a prognostic marker, may contribute to predicting clinical outcome for patients with hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

BICD1 expression, as a potential biomarker for prognosis and predicting response to therapy in patients with glioblastomas

PubMed Central

Huang, Shang-Pen; Chang, Yu-Chan; Low, Qie Hua; Wu, Alexander T.H.; Chen, Chi-Long; Lin, Yuan-Feng; Hsiao, Michael

2017-01-01

There is variation in the survival and therapeutic outcome of patients with glioblastomas (GBMs). Therapy resistance is an important challenge in the treatment of GBM patients. The aim of this study was to identify Temozolomide (TMZ) related genes and confirm their clinical relevance. The TMZ-related genes were discovered by analysis of the gene-expression profiling in our cell-based microarray. Their clinical relevance was verified by in silico meta-analysis of the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Chinese Glioma Genome Atlas (CGGA) datasets. Our results demonstrated that BICD1 expression could predict both prognosis and response to therapy in GBM patients. First, high BICD1 expression was correlated with poor prognosis in the TCGA GBM cohort (n=523) and in the CGGA glioma cohort (n=220). Second, high BICD1 expression predicted poor outcome in patients with TMZ treatment (n=301) and radiation therapy (n=405). Third, multivariable Cox regression analysis confirmed BICD1 expression as an independent factor affecting the prognosis and therapeutic response of TMZ and radiation in GBM patients. Additionally, age, MGMT and BICD1 expression were combinedly utilized to stratify GBM patients into more distinct risk groups, which may provide better outcome assessment. Finally, we observed a strong correlation between BICD1 expression and epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in GBMs, and proposed a possible mechanism of BICD1-associated survival or therapeutic resistance in GBMs accordingly. In conclusion, our study suggests that high BICD1 expression may result in worse prognosis and could be a predictor of poor response to TMZ and radiation therapies in GBM patients. PMID:29371945

Psoas muscle area is not representative of total skeletal muscle area in the assessment of sarcopenia in ovarian cancer.

PubMed

Rutten, Iris J G; Ubachs, Jorne; Kruitwagen, Roy F P M; Beets-Tan, Regina G H; Olde Damink, Steven W M; Van Gorp, Toon

2017-08-01

Computed tomography measurements of total skeletal muscle area can detect changes and predict overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced ovarian cancer. This study investigates whether assessment of psoas muscle area reflects total muscle area and can be used to assess sarcopenia in ovarian cancer patients. Ovarian cancer patients (n = 150) treated with induction chemotherapy and interval debulking were enrolled retrospectively in this longitudinal study. Muscle was measured cross sectionally with computed tomography in three ways: (i) software quantification of total skeletal muscle area (SMA); (ii) software quantification of psoas muscle area (PA); and (iii) manual measurement of length and width of the psoas muscle to derive the psoas surface area (PLW). Pearson correlation between the different methods was studied. Patients were divided into two groups based on the extent of change in muscle area, and agreement was measured with kappa coefficients. Cox-regression was used to test predictors for OS. Correlation between SMA and both psoas muscle area measurements was poor (r = 0.52 and 0.39 for PA and PLW, respectively). After categorizing patients into muscle loss or gain, kappa agreement was also poor for all comparisons (all κ < 0.40). In regression analysis, SMA loss was predictive of poor OS (hazard ratio 1.698 (95%CI 1.038-2.778), P = 0.035). No relationship with OS was seen for PA or PLW loss. Change in psoas muscle area is not representative of total muscle area change and should not be used to substitute total skeletal muscle to predict survival in patients with ovarian cancer. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

Risk Factors and Mortality Associated with Default from Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment

PubMed Central

Franke, Molly F.; Appleton, Sasha C.; Bayona, Jaime; Arteaga, Fernando; Palacios, Eda; Llaro, Karim; Shin, Sonya S.; Becerra, Mercedes C.; Murray, Megan B.; Mitnick, Carole D.

2008-01-01

Background Completing treatment for multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) may be more challenging than completing first-line TB therapy, especially in resource poor settings. The objectives of this study were to (1) identify risk factors for default from MDR TB therapy; (2) quantify mortality among patients who default; and (3) identify risk factors for death following default. Methods We performed a retrospective chart review to identify risk factors for default and conducted home visits to assess mortality among patients who defaulted. Results 67 of 671 patients (10.0%) defaulted. The median time to default was 438 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 152−710), and 40.3% of patients had culture-positive sputum at the time of default. Substance use (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.96, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [1.56, 5.62], p-value [p]=0.001), substandard housing conditions (HR: 1.83, CI: [1.07, 3.11], p=0.03), later year of enrollment (HR: 1.62, CI: [1.09, 2.41], p=0.02) and health district (p=0.02) predicted default in a multivariable analysis. Severe adverse events did not predict default. Of 47 (70.1%) patients who defaulted and were successfully traced, 25 (53.2%) had died. Poor bacteriologic response, less than a year of treatment at default, low education level, and diagnosis with a psychiatric disorder significantly predicted death after default in a multivariable analysis. Conclusions The proportion of patients who defaulted from MDR TB treatment was relatively low. The large proportion of patients who defaulted while culture-positive underscores the public health importance of minimizing default. Prognosis for patients who defaulted was poor. Interventions aimed at preventing default may reduce TB-related mortality. PMID:18462099

The Family Life Project: an epidemiological and developmental study of young children living in poor rural communities.

PubMed

Vernon-Feagans, Lynne; Cox, Martha

2013-10-01

About 20% of children in the United States have been reported to live in rural communities, with child poverty rates higher and geographic isolation from resources greater than in urban communities. There have been surprisingly few studies of children living in rural communities, especially poor rural communities. The Family Life Project helped fill this gap by using an epidemiological design to recruit and study a representative sample of every baby born to a mother who resided in one of six poor rural counties over a 1-year period, oversampling for poverty and African American. 1,292 children were followed from birth to 36 months of age. This monograph described these children and used a cumulative risk model to examine the relation between social risk and children's executive functioning, language development, and behavioral competence at 36 months. Using both the Family Process Model of development and the Family Investment Model of development, observed parenting was examined over time in relation to child functioning at 36 months. Different aspects of observed parenting were examined as mediators/moderators of risk in predicting child outcomes. Results suggested that cumulative risk was important in predicting all three major domains of child outcomes and that positive and negative parenting and maternal language complexity were mediators of these relations. Maternal positive parenting was found to be a buffer for the most risky families in predicting behavioral competence. In a final model using both family process and investment measures, there was evidence of mediation but with little evidence of the specificity of parenting for particular outcomes. Discussion focused on the importance of cumulative risk and parenting in understanding child competence in rural poverty and the implications for possible intervention strategies that might be effective in maximizing the early development of these children.

A framework for streamflow prediction in the world's most severely data-limited regions: Test of applicability and performance in a poorly-gauged region of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alipour, M. H.; Kibler, Kelly M.

2018-02-01

A framework methodology is proposed for streamflow prediction in poorly-gauged rivers located within large-scale regions of sparse hydrometeorologic observation. A multi-criteria model evaluation is developed to select models that balance runoff efficiency with selection of accurate parameter values. Sparse observed data are supplemented by uncertain or low-resolution information, incorporated as 'soft' data, to estimate parameter values a priori. Model performance is tested in two catchments within a data-poor region of southwestern China, and results are compared to models selected using alternative calibration methods. While all models perform consistently with respect to runoff efficiency (NSE range of 0.67-0.78), models selected using the proposed multi-objective method may incorporate more representative parameter values than those selected by traditional calibration. Notably, parameter values estimated by the proposed method resonate with direct estimates of catchment subsurface storage capacity (parameter residuals of 20 and 61 mm for maximum soil moisture capacity (Cmax), and 0.91 and 0.48 for soil moisture distribution shape factor (B); where a parameter residual is equal to the centroid of a soft parameter value minus the calibrated parameter value). A model more traditionally calibrated to observed data only (single-objective model) estimates a much lower soil moisture capacity (residuals of Cmax = 475 and 518 mm and B = 1.24 and 0.7). A constrained single-objective model also underestimates maximum soil moisture capacity relative to a priori estimates (residuals of Cmax = 246 and 289 mm). The proposed method may allow managers to more confidently transfer calibrated models to ungauged catchments for streamflow predictions, even in the world's most data-limited regions.

Serum biomarkers of bone metabolism in castration-resistant prostate cancer patients with skeletal metastases: results from SWOG 0421.

PubMed

Lara, Primo N; Ely, Benjamin; Quinn, David I; Mack, Philip C; Tangen, Catherine; Gertz, Erik; Twardowski, Przemyslaw W; Goldkorn, Amir; Hussain, Maha; Vogelzang, Nicholas J; Thompson, Ian M; Van Loan, Marta D

2014-04-01

Prior studies suggest that elevated markers of bone turnover are prognostic for poor survival in castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The predictive role of these markers relative to bone-targeted therapy is unknown. We prospectively evaluated the prognostic and predictive value of bone biomarkers in sera from CRPC patients treated on a placebo-controlled phase III trial of docetaxel with or without the bone targeted endothelin-A receptor antagonist atrasentan (SWOG S0421). Markers for bone resorption (N-telopeptide and pyridinoline) and formation (C-terminal collagen propeptide and bone alkaline phosphatase) were assayed in pretreatment and serial sera. Cox proportional hazards regression models were fit for overall survival. Models were fit with main effects for marker levels and with/without terms for marker-treatment interaction, adjusted for clinical variables, to assess the prognostic and predictive value of atrasentan. Analysis was adjusted for multiple comparisons. Two-sided P values were calculated using the Wald test. Sera from 778 patients were analyzed. Elevated baseline levels of each of the markers were associated with worse survival (P < .001). Increasing marker levels by week nine of therapy were also associated with subsequent poor survival (P < .001). Patients with the highest marker levels (upper 25th percentile for all markers) not only had a poor prognosis (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.3; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.41 to 7.65; P < .001) but also had a survival benefit from atrasentan (HR = 0.33; 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.71; median survival = 13 [atrasentan] vs 5 months [placebo]; P interaction = .005). Serum bone metabolism markers have statistically significant independent prognostic value in CRPC. Importantly, a small group of patients (6%) with highly elevated markers of bone turnover appear to preferentially benefit from atrasentan therapy.

Neonatal assessment in the delivery room--Trial to Evaluate a Specified Type of Apgar (TEST-Apgar).

PubMed

Rüdiger, Mario; Braun, Nicole; Aranda, Jacob; Aguar, Marta; Bergert, Renate; Bystricka, Alica; Dimitriou, Gabriel; El-Atawi, Khaled; Ifflaender, Sascha; Jung, Philipp; Matasova, Katarina; Ojinaga, Violeta; Petruskeviciene, Zita; Roll, Claudia; Schwindt, Jens; Simma, Burkhard; Staal, Nanette; Valencia, Gloria; Vasconcellos, Maria Gabriela; Veinla, Maie; Vento, Máximo; Weber, Benedikt; Wendt, Anke; Yigit, Sule; Zotter, Heinz; Küster, Helmut

2015-03-08

Since an objective description is essential to determine infant's postnatal condition and efficacy of interventions, two scores were suggested in the past but weren't tested yet: The Specified-Apgar uses the 5 items of the conventional Apgar score; however describes the condition regardless of gestational age (GA) or resuscitative interventions. The Expanded-Apgar measures interventions needed to achieve this condition. We hypothesized that the combination of both (Combined-Apgar) describes postnatal condition of preterm infants better than either of the scores alone. Scores were assessed in preterm infants below 32 completed weeks of gestation. Data were prospectively collected in 20 NICU in 12 countries. Prediction of poor outcome (death, severe/moderate BPD, IVH, CPL and ROP) was used as a surrogate parameter to compare the scores. To compare predictive value the AUC for the ROC was calculated. Of 2150 eligible newborns, data on 1855 infants with a mean GA of 28(6/7) ± 2(3/7) weeks were analyzed. At 1 minute, the Combined-Apgar was significantly better in predicting poor outcome than the Specified- or Expanded-Apgar alone. Of infants with a very low score at 5 or 10 minutes 81% or 100% had a poor outcome, respectively. In these infants the relative risk (RR) for perinatal mortality was 24.93 (13.16-47.20) and 31.34 (15.91-61.71), respectively. The Combined-Apgar allows a more appropriate description of infant's condition under conditions of modern neonatal care. It should be used as a tool for better comparison of group of infants and postnatal interventions. clinicaltrials.gov Protocol Registration System (NCT00623038). Registered 14 February 2008.

Poor Sleep Quality and Associated Inflammation Predict Preterm Birth: Heightened Risk among African Americans.

PubMed

Blair, Lisa M; Porter, Kyle; Leblebicioglu, Binnaz; Christian, Lisa M

2015-08-01

Poor sleep promotes inflammation. In turn, inflammation is a causal mechanism in term as well as preterm parturition. In the United States, a persistent racial disparity in preterm birth exists, with African Americans showing ∼1.5 times greater risk. This study examined associations among sleep quality, serum proinflammatory cytokines, and length of gestation in a racially diverse sample of 138 pregnant women. Observational. Women completed the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and other psychosocial and behavioral measures during midpregnancy. Serum levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-1β, and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α were determined by high-sensitivity assays. Birth outcomes were determined via medical record review. Among African American women (n = 79), shorter gestation was predicted by poorer overall sleep (rs = -0.35, P = 0.002) as well the following PSQI subscales: subjective sleep quality (rs = -0.34, P = 0.002), sleep latency (rs = -0.27, P = 0.02), and sleep efficiency (rs = -0.27, P = 0.02). African American women with poor sleep quality (PSQI > 5) had 10.2 times the odds of preterm birth compared to those with good sleep quality. In contrast, among European American women (n = 53), gestational length was not significantly predicted by sleep quality (Ps > 0.12). Bootstrapping analyses showed that, among African Americans, IL-8 significantly mediated the association between sleep quality and length of gestation (indirect effect estimate -0.029; 95% confidence interval -0.06, -0.002). The data provide novel evidence that African American women exhibit greater inflammation in response to sleep disturbance than European American women and these effects correspond with length of gestation. Racial differences in susceptibility to sleep induced immune dysregulation may contribute to marked racial disparities in preterm birth. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

The prediction of poor outcome in young adults: comparison of the Young Adult Self-Report, the General Health Questionnaire and the Symptom Checklist.

PubMed

Ferdinand, R F; Verhulst, F C

1994-06-01

The ability of the Young Adult Self-Report (YASR), the Symptom Checklist (SCL-90) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) to predict maladjustment across a 2-year time-span was assessed in a general population sample of 528 18- to 22-year-olds. Referral for mental health services and need for professional help were predicted by total problem scores of the YASR, the GHQ-28 and the SCL-90 and by the internalizing scale of the YASR. Furthermore, the internalizing scale predicted suicide attempts or suicidal ideation, whereas the externalizing scale predicted police contacts. The YASR delinquent behavior syndrome was the only significant predictor of alcohol abuse. The findings supported the validity of the YASR as an instrument for the assessment of psychopathology in young adults.

Predictors of medical school clerkship performance: a multispecialty longitudinal analysis of standardized examination scores and clinical assessments.

PubMed

Casey, Petra M; Palmer, Brian A; Thompson, Geoffrey B; Laack, Torrey A; Thomas, Matthew R; Hartz, Martha F; Jensen, Jani R; Sandefur, Benjamin J; Hammack, Julie E; Swanson, Jerry W; Sheeler, Robert D; Grande, Joseph P

2016-04-27

Evidence suggests that poor performance on standardized tests before and early in medical school is associated with poor performance on standardized tests later in medical school and beyond. This study aimed to explore relationships between standardized examination scores (before and during medical school) with test and clinical performance across all core clinical clerkships. We evaluated characteristics of 435 students at Mayo Medical School (MMS) who matriculated 2000-2009 and for whom undergraduate grade point average, medical college aptitude test (MCAT), medical school standardized tests (United States Medical Licensing Examination [USMLE] 1 and 2; National Board of Medical Examiners [NBME] subject examination), and faculty assessments were available. We assessed the correlation between scores and assessments and determined USMLE 1 cutoffs predictive of poor performance (≤10th percentile) on the NBME examinations. We also compared the mean faculty assessment scores of MMS students vs visiting students, and for the NBME, we determined the percentage of MMS students who scored at or below the tenth percentile of first-time national examinees. MCAT scores correlated robustly with USMLE 1 and 2, and USMLE 1 and 2 independently predicted NBME scores in all clerkships. USMLE 1 cutoffs corresponding to poor NBME performance ranged from 220 to 223. USMLE 1 scores were similar among MMS and visiting students. For most academic years and clerkships, NBME scores were similar for MMS students vs all first-time examinees. MCAT, USMLE 1 and 2, and subsequent clinical performance parameters were correlated with NBME scores across all core clerkships. Even more interestingly, faculty assessments correlated with NBME scores, affirming patient care as examination preparation. USMLE 1 scores identified students at risk of poor performance on NBME subject examinations, facilitating and supporting implementation of remediation before the clinical years. MMS students were representative of medical students across the nation.

Increased ratio of serum matrix metalloproteinase-9 against TIMP-1 predicts poor wound healing in diabetic foot ulcers.

PubMed

Li, Zhihong; Guo, Shuqin; Yao, Fang; Zhang, Yunliang; Li, Tingting

2013-01-01

Little is known about serum concentrations of Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9), MMP-2, TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 in diabetic patients with foot ulcers. This study demonstrates their relationship with wound healing. Ninety-four patients with diabetic foot ulcers were recruited in the study. Serum MMP-9, MMP-2, TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 were measured at the first clinic visit and the end of 4-week treatment and followed up till 12 weeks. According to the decreasing rate of ulcer healing area at the fourth week, we divided those cases into good and poor healers. Through analyses, we explore the possible relationship among those factors and degree of wound healing. The median level of serum MMP-9 in good healers was lower than poor healers at first visit (124.2 μg/L vs 374.6 μg/L, p<0.05), and after 4-week therapy it decreased 5-fold approximately. In contrast, the change in MMP-9 concentration did not reach statistical significance in poor healers. MMP-2, TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 varied slightly in both good healers and poor healers. The MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio better reflected the healing than MMP-9 alone before therapy and after 4 week treatment (r = -0.6475 vs -0.3251, r = -0.7096 vs -0.1231, respectively). Receiver Operator Curve (ROC) showed that the cutoff for MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio at <0.395 best predicted a reduction in wound area of 82% at the end of 4-week treatment with a sensitivity of 63.6% and a specificity of 58.6% (area under the curve 0.658, p < 0.001). Detecting serum MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio on admission might be a predictor of healing and might provide a novel target for the future therapy in diabetic foot ulcers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Poor Decision Making Is a Consequence of Cognitive Decline among Older Persons without Alzheimer’s Disease or Mild Cognitive Impairment

PubMed Central

Boyle, Patricia A.; Yu, Lei; Wilson, Robert S.; Gamble, Keith; Buchman, Aron S.; Bennett, David A.

2012-01-01

Objective Decision making is an important determinant of health and well-being across the lifespan but is critical in aging, when many influential decisions are made just as cognitive function declines. Increasing evidence suggests that older adults, even those without dementia, often make poor decisions and are selectively vulnerable to scams. To date, however, the factors associated with poor decision making in old age are unknown. The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that poor decision making is a consequence of cognitive decline among older persons without Alzheimer’s disease or mild cognitive impairment. Methods Participants were 420 non-demented persons from the Memory and Aging Project, a longitudinal, clinical-pathologic cohort study of aging in the Chicago metropolitan area. All underwent repeated cognitive evaluations and subsequently completed assessments of decision making and susceptibility to scams. Decision making was measured using 12 items from a previously established performance-based measure and a self-report measure of susceptibility to scams. Results Cognitive function data were collected over an average of 5.5 years prior to the decision making assessment. Regression analyses were used to examine whether the prior rate of cognitive decline predicted the level of decision making and susceptibility to scams; analyses controlled for age, sex, education, and starting level of cognition. Among 420 persons without dementia, more rapid cognitive decline predicted poorer decision making and increased susceptibility to scams (p’s<0.001). Further, the relations between cognitive decline, decision making and scams persisted in analyses restricted to persons without any cognitive impairment (i.e., no dementia or even mild cognitive impairment). Conclusions Poor decision making is a consequence of cognitive decline among older persons without Alzheimer’s disease or mild cognitive impairment, those widely considered “cognitively healthy.” These findings suggest that even very subtle age-related changes in cognition have detrimental effects on judgment. PMID:22916287

Development of low-cost meteorological observation system based on wireless network for poor-visibility occurred by snowstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobayashi, Y.; Watanabe, K.; Imai, M.; Watanabe, K.; Naruse, N.; Takahashi, Y.

2016-12-01

Hyper-densely monitoring for poor-visibility occurred by snowstorm is needed to make an alert system, because the snowstorm is difficult to predict from the observation only at a representative point. There are some problems in the previous approaches for the poor-visibility monitoring using video analyses or visibility meters; these require a wired network monitoring (a large amount of data: 10MB/sec at least) and the system cost is high (10,000 at each point). Thus, the risk of poor-visibility has been mainly measured at specific point such as airport and mountain pass, and estimated by simulation two dimensionally. To predict it two dimensionally and accurately, we have developed a low-cost meteorological system to observe the snowstorm hyper-densely. We have developed a low-cost visibility meter which works as the reduced intensity of semiconducting laser light when snow particles block off. Our developed system also has a capability of extending a hyper-densely observation in real-time on wireless network using Zigbee; A/D conversion and wireless data sent from temperature and illuminance sensors. We use a semiconducting laser chip (5) for the light source and a reflection mechanism by the use of three mirrors so as to send the light to a non-sensitive illuminance sensor directly. Thus, our visibility detecting system ($500) becomes much cheaper than previous one. We have checked the correlation between the reduced intensity taken by our system and the visibility recorded by conventional video camera. The value for the correlation coefficient was -0.67, which indicates a strong correlation. It means that our developed system is practical. In conclusion, we have developed low-cost meteorological detecting system to observe poor-visibility occurred by snowstorm, having a potential of hyper-densely monitoring on wireless network, and have made sure the practicability.

Long noncoding RNA CCAT2 can predict metastasis and poor prognosis: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fan, Yang-Hua; Fang, Hua; Ji, Chen-Xing; Xie, Huan; Xiao, Bing; Zhu, Xin-Gen

2017-03-01

It has been reported that Colon cancer-associated transcript 2 (CCAT2) is dysregulated in various cancers. We performed this meta-analysis to clarify its promising functions as a prognosis marker in malignant tumors. Electronic databases, including PubMed, Medline, OVID, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science, were searched from inception to October 20, 2016. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated to explore the relationship between CCAT2 expression and survival, which were extracted from the eligible studies. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated to assess the association between CCAT2 expression and pathological parameters using RevMan5.3 software. Six original studies were included in this meta-analysis including 725 cancer patients. The pooled HR suggested that high CCAT2 expression was significantly correlated with overall survival (OS) (HR=2.30, 95% CI: 1.62-3.25, p<0.00001) in cancer patients. Subgroup analysis revealed a significant association between CCAT2 and OS in urogenital system (HR=1.70, 95% CI: 1.27-2.26, p<0.003) and non-urogenital system cancer patients (HR=3.18, 95% CI: 2.09-4.83, p<0.0001). A significant association was observed between high CCAT2 expression and poor progression-free survival (PFS) in cancer patients (pooled HR=2.76, 95% CI: 1.74-4.37). CCAT2 expression was significantly related to lymph node metastasis (LNM) (OR=4.33, 95% CI 2.03-9.22), distant metastasis (DM) (OR=11.66, 95% CI: 5.36-25.37) and tumor stage (OR=2.58, 95% CI 1.86-3.57). This meta-analysis demonstrated that high CCAT2 expression significantly predicts poor OS, poor PFS, LNM, DM and tumor stage, suggesting that high CCAT2 expression may serve as a novel biomarker for poor prognosis and metastasis in cancers. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Frontal brain deactivation during a non-verbal cognitive judgement bias test in sheep.

PubMed

Guldimann, Kathrin; Vögeli, Sabine; Wolf, Martin; Wechsler, Beat; Gygax, Lorenz

2015-02-01

Animal welfare concerns have raised an interest in animal affective states. These states also play an important role in the proximate control of behaviour. Due to their potential to modulate short-term emotional reactions, one specific focus is on long-term affective states, that is, mood. These states can be assessed by using non-verbal cognitive judgement bias paradigms. Here, we conducted a spatial variant of such a test on 24 focal animals that were kept under either unpredictable, stimulus-poor or predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions to induce differential mood states. Based on functional near-infrared spectroscopy, we measured haemodynamic frontal brain reactions during 10 s in which the sheep could observe the configuration of the cognitive judgement bias trial before indicating their assessment based on the go/no-go reaction. We used (generalised) mixed-effects models to evaluate the data. Sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions took longer and were less likely to reach the learning criterion and reacted slightly more optimistically in the cognitive judgement bias test than sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions. A frontal cortical increase in deoxy-haemoglobin [HHb] and a decrease in oxy-haemoglobin [O2Hb] were observed during the visual assessment of the test situation by the sheep, indicating a frontal cortical brain deactivation. This deactivation was more pronounced with the negativity of the test situation, which was reflected by the provenance of the sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor housing conditions, the proximity of the cue to the negatively reinforced cue location, or the absence of a go reaction in the trial. It seems that (1) sheep from the unpredictable, stimulus-poor in comparison to sheep from the predictable, stimulus-rich housing conditions dealt less easily with the test conditions rich in stimuli, that (2) long-term housing conditions seemingly did not influence mood--which may be related to the difficulty of tracking a constant long-term state in the brain--and that (3) visual assessment of an emotional stimulus leads to frontal brain deactivation in sheep, specifically if that stimulus is negative. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-04-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in facts typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Prediction of future hydrological regimes in poorly gauged high altitude basins: the case study of the upper Indus, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocchiola, D.; Diolaiuti, G.; Soncini, A.; Mihalcea, C.; D'Agata, C.; Mayer, C.; Lambrecht, A.; Rosso, R.; Smiraglia, C.

2011-07-01

In the mountain regions of the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya (HKH) the "third polar ice cap" of our planet, glaciers play the role of "water towers" by providing significant amount of melt water, especially in the dry season, essential for agriculture, drinking purposes, and hydropower production. Recently, most glaciers in the HKH have been retreating and losing mass, mainly due to significant regional warming, thus calling for assessment of future water resources availability for populations down slope. However, hydrology of these high altitude catchments is poorly studied and little understood. Most such catchments are poorly gauged, thus posing major issues in flow prediction therein, and representing in fact typical grounds of application of PUB concepts, where simple and portable hydrological modeling based upon scarce data amount is necessary for water budget estimation, and prediction under climate change conditions. In this preliminarily study, future (2060) hydrological flows in a particular watershed (Shigar river at Shigar, ca. 7000 km2), nested within the upper Indus basin and fed by seasonal melt from major glaciers, are investigated. The study is carried out under the umbrella of the SHARE-Paprika project, aiming at evaluating the impact of climate change upon hydrology of the upper Indus river. We set up a minimal hydrological model, tuned against a short series of observed ground climatic data from a number of stations in the area, in situ measured ice ablation data, and remotely sensed snow cover data. The future, locally adjusted, precipitation and temperature fields for the reference decade 2050-2059 from CCSM3 model, available within the IPCC's panel, are then fed to the hydrological model. We adopt four different glaciers' cover scenarios, to test sensitivity to decreased glacierized areas. The projected flow duration curves, and some selected flow descriptors are evaluated. The uncertainty of the results is then addressed, and use of the model for nearby catchments discussed. The proposed approach is valuable as a tool to investigate the hydrology of poorly gauged high altitude areas, and to project forward their hydrological behavior pending climate change.

Using presurgical psychological testing to predict 1-year appointment adherence and weight loss in bariatric surgery patients: predictive validity and methodological considerations.

PubMed

Marek, Ryan J; Tarescavage, Anthony M; Ben-Porath, Yossef S; Ashton, Kathleen; Merrell Rish, Julie; Heinberg, Leslie J

2015-01-01

Previous studies suggest that presurgical psychopathology accounts for some of the variance in suboptimal weight loss outcomes among Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) patients, but research has been equivocal. The present study seeks to extend the past literature by examining associations between presurgical scale scores on the broadband Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2-Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) and suboptimal weight loss and poor adherence to follow-up 1 year postoperatively after accounting for several methodologic considerations. Cleveland Clinic Bariatric and Metabolic Institute, Cleveland, Ohio, USA. The sample consisted of 498 RYGB patients, who produced a valid presurgical MMPI-2-RF protocol at program intake. The sample was primarily female (72.9%), Caucasian (64.9%), and middle-aged (mean = 46.4 years old; standard deviation [SD] = 11.6). The mean presurgical body mass index (BMI) was 47.4 kg/m(2) (SD = 8.2) and mean percent weight loss (%WL) at 1 year postoperatively was 31.18 %WL (SD = 8.44). As expected, scales from the Behavioral/Externalizing Dysfunction (BXD) domain of the MMPI-2-RF were associated with worse weight loss outcomes and poor adherence to follow-up, particularly after accounting for range restriction due to underreporting. Individuals producing elevated scores on these scales were at greater risk for achieving suboptimal weight loss (<50% excess weight loss) and not following up with their appointment compared with those who scored below cut-offs. Patients who are more likely to engage in undercontrolled behavior (e.g., poor impulse control), as indicated by presurgical MMPI-2-RF findings, are at greater risk for suboptimal weight loss and poor adherence to follow-up following RYGB. Objective psychological assessments should also be conducted postoperatively to ensure that intervention is administered in a timely manner. Future research in the area of presurgical psychological screening should consider the impact of underreporting and other discussed methodologic issues in predictive analyses. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emotion dysregulation, problem-solving, and hopelessness.

PubMed

Vatan, Sevginar; Lester, David; Gunn, John F

2014-04-01

A sample of 87 Turkish undergraduate students was administered scales to measure hopelessness, problem-solving skills, emotion dysregulation, and psychiatric symptoms. All of the scores from these scales were strongly associated. In a multiple regression, hopelessness scores were predicted by poor problem-solving skills and emotion dysregulation.

Development and evaluation of pile "high strain dynamic test database" to improve driven capacity estimates : phase 1 report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT) has noted poor correlation between predicted pile resistances : calculated using commonly accepted design methods and measured pile resistance from dynamic pile load tests (also : referred to as high ...

ABOVEGROUND NITROGEN USE EFFICIENCY AND GROWTH DYNAMICS IN SPARTINA ALTERNIFLORA AND DISTICHLIS SPICATA

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term nitrogen (N) fertilization studies suggest shifting dominance from Spartina alterniflora to Distichlis spicata, although the underlying mechanism is unclear. A limitation on our ability to predict changes is a poor understanding of resource use under ambient conditions....

Development and evaluation of pile "high strain dynamic test database" to improve driven capacity estimates : phase 2 report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

The Maine Department of Transportation (MaineDOT) has noted poor correlation between predicted pile resistances : calculated using commonly accepted design methods and measured pile resistance from dynamic pile load tests (also : referred to as high ...

Does school suspension affect subsequent youth nonviolent antisocial behavior? A longitudinal study of students in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, United States

PubMed Central

Hemphill, Sheryl A.; Kotevski, Aneta; Herrenkohl, Todd I.; Smith, Rachel; Toumbourou, John W.; Catalano, Richard F.

2013-01-01

School suspension has been not only associated with negative behaviours but is predictive of future poor outcomes. The current study investigates a) whether school suspension is a unique predictor of youth nonviolent antisocial behaviour (NVAB) relative to other established predictors, and b) whether the predictors of NVAB are similar in Australia and the United States (U.S.). The data analysed here draws on two state-wide representative samples of Grade 7 and 9 students in Victoria, Australia and Washington State, U.S., resurveyed at 12-month follow-up (N = 3,677, 99% retention). School suspension did not uniquely predict NVAB in the final model. The predictors of NVAB, similar across states, included previous student NVAB; current alcohol and tobacco use; poor family management; association with antisocial friends; and low commitment to school. An implication of the findings is that U.S. evidence-based prevention programs targeting the influences investigated here could be trialled in Australia. PMID:24860192

The relationships among acculturation, biobehavioral risk, stress, corticotropin-releasing hormone, and poor birth outcomes in Hispanic women.

PubMed

Ruiz, R Jeanne; Dolbier, Christyn L; Fleschler, Robin

2006-01-01

To determine the predictive ability of acculturation as an antecedent of stress, biobehavioral risk, corticotropin-releasing hormone levels, and poor birth outcomes in pregnant Hispanic women. A prospective, observational design with data collected at 22-25 weeks of gestation and at birth through medical record review. Public prenatal health clinics in south Texas serving low-income women. Self-identified Hispanic women who had singleton pregnancies, no major medical risk complications, and consented to answer questionnaires as well as a venipuncture and review of their prenatal and birth medical records. Gestational age, Apgar scores, length, weight, percentile size, and head circumference of the infant at birth. Significant differences were seen in infant birth weight, head circumference, and percentile size by acculturation. English acculturation predicted stress, corticotropin-releasing hormone, biobehavioral risk, and decreased gestational age at birth. Investigation must continue to understand the circumstances that give rise to the decline in birth outcomes observed in Hispanics with acculturation to the dominant English culture in the United States.

Childhood Social Functioning and Young Adult Intimate Partner Violence in Girls With and Without ADHD: Response Inhibition as a Moderator.

PubMed

Youn, Cherry; Meza, Jocelyn I; Hinshaw, Stephen P

2018-06-01

Examine the moderating effects of response inhibition on the longitudinal association between social preference/relational aggression measured in childhood, and intimate partner violence (IPV) measured in young adulthood, among women with ( n = 140) and without ( n = 88) histories of childhood ADHD. During childhood, social preference was measured through confidential peer sociometric nominations, yielding negative and positive peer regard; relational aggression was assessed via staff behavioral observations; and response inhibition was assessed using commission errors from the continuous performance task. During young adulthood, IPV was ascertained via a clinician-administered, semistructured interview. Social preference and relational aggression independently predicted IPV; this prospective link was moderated by response inhibition. In combination with low social preference or high relational aggression in childhood, poor response inhibition predicted the highest levels of young-adult IPV. Given the developmental significance of peer relationships, additional research on the causes of and treatments for poor social functioning in ADHD is warranted.

Familial Risk Moderates the Association Between Sleep and zBMI in Children

PubMed Central

El-Sheikh, Mona

2013-01-01

Objective A cumulative risk approach was used to examine the moderating effect of familial risk factors on relations between actigraphy-based sleep quantity (minutes) and quality (efficiency) and sex- and age-standardized body mass index (zBMI). Methods The sample included 124 boys and 104 girls with a mean age of 10.41 years (SD = 0.67). Children wore actigraphs for 1 week, and their height and weight were assessed in the lab. Results After controlling for potential confounds, multiple regression analyses indicated that sleep minutes predicted children’s zBMI and that both sleep minutes and efficiency interacted with family risk in the prediction of zBMI. The association between poor sleep and zBMI was especially evident for children exposed to higher levels of family risk. Conclusions Findings suggest that not all children who exhibit poor sleep are at equal risk for higher zBMI and that familial and contextual conditions need to be considered in this link. PMID:23699749

Condition, innate immunity and disease mortality of inbred crows

PubMed Central

Townsend, Andrea K.; Clark, Anne B.; McGowan, Kevin J.; Miller, Andrew D.; Buckles, Elizabeth L.

2010-01-01

Cooperatively breeding American crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) suffer a severe disease-mediated survival cost from inbreeding, but the proximate mechanisms linking inbreeding to disease are unknown. Here, we examine indices of nestling body condition and innate immunocompetence in relationship to inbreeding and disease mortality. Using an estimate of microsatellite heterozygosity that predicts inbreeding in this population, we show that inbred crows were in relatively poor condition as nestlings, and that body condition index measured in the first 2–33 days after hatching, in addition to inbreeding index, predicted disease probability in the first 34 months of life. Inbred nestlings also mounted a weaker response along one axis of innate immunity: the proportion of bacteria killed in a microbiocidal assay increased as heterozygosity index increased. Relatively poor body condition and low innate immunocompetence are two mechanisms that might predispose inbred crows to ultimate disease mortality. A better understanding of condition-mediated inbreeding depression can guide efforts to minimize disease costs of inbreeding in small populations. PMID:20444716