An assessment of predominant causal factors of pilot deviations that contribute to runway incursions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campbell, Denado M.

The aim of this study was to identify predominant causal factors of pilot deviations in runway incursions over a two-year period. Runway incursion reports were obtained from NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS), and a qualitative method was used by classifying and coding each report to a specific causal factor(s). The causal factors that were used were substantiated by research from the Aircraft Owner's and Pilot's Association that found that these causal factors were the most common in runway incursion incidents and accidents. An additional causal factor was also utilized to determine the significance of pilot training in relation to runway incursions. From the reports examined, it was found that miscommunication and situational awareness have the greatest impact on pilots and are most often the major causes of runway incursions. This data can be used to assist airports, airlines, and the FAA to understand trends in pilot deviations, and to find solutions for specific problem areas in runway incursion incidents.

Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentler, Peter M.

2016-01-01

The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

The Academic Procrastination in Junior High School Students' Mathematics Learning: A Qualitative Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asri, Dahlia Novarianing; Setyosari, Punaji; Hitipeuw, Imanuel; Chusniyah, Tutut

2017-01-01

Among the main causes of low learning achievement in mathematics learning is a delayed behavior to do tasks, commonly called academic procrastination. The objectives of this research are to describe and to explain the causal factors and consequences of academic procrastination in learning mathematics for junior high school students. This research…

Questions on causality and responsibility arising from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in Norway

PubMed Central

Iversen, Bjørn G; Hofmann, Bjørn; Aavitsland, Preben

2008-01-01

In 2002, Norway experienced a large outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in hospitals with 231 confirmed cases. This fuelled intense public and professional debates on what were the causes and who were responsible. In epidemiology, other sciences, in philosophy and in law there is a long tradition of discussing the concept of causality. We use this outbreak as a case; apply various theories of causality from different disciplines to discuss the roles and responsibilities of some of the parties involved. Mackie's concept of INUS conditions, Hill's nine viewpoints to study association for claiming causation, deterministic and probabilistic ways of reasoning, all shed light on the issues of causality in this outbreak. Moreover, applying legal theories of causation (counterfactual reasoning and the "but-for" test and the NESS test) proved especially useful, but the case also illustrated the weaknesses of the various theories of causation. We conclude that many factors contributed to causing the outbreak, but that contamination of a medical device in the production facility was the major necessary condition. The reuse of the medical device in hospitals contributed primarily to the size of the outbreak. The unintended error by its producer – and to a minor extent by the hospital practice – was mainly due to non-application of relevant knowledge and skills, and appears to constitute professional negligence. Due to criminal procedure laws and other factors outside the discourse of causality, no one was criminally charged for the outbreak which caused much suffering and shortening the life of at least 34 people. PMID:18947429

Factor and prevention method of landslide event at FELCRA Semungkis, Hulu Langat, Selangor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manap, N.; Jeyaramah, N.; Syahrom, N.

2017-12-01

Landslide is known as one of the powerful geological events that happens unpredictably due to natural or human factors. A study was carried out at FELCRA Semungkis, Hulu Langat which is known as one of the areas that has been affected by landslide that involving 16 causalities. The purpose of this study is to identify the main factor that causes the landslide at FELCRA Semungkis, Hulu Langat and to identify the protection method. Data was collected from three respondents working under government bodies through interview sessions. The data collected were analysed by using the content analysis method. From the results, it can be concluded that the main factors that caused the landslide to happened are the human factor and nature factor. The protection method that can be applied to stabilize the FELCRA Semungkis, Hulu Langat is by using the soil nailing method with the support of soil create system.

Users' and GPs' causal attributions of illegal substance use: an exploratory interview study.

PubMed

Wynn, Rolf; Karlsen, Kjetil; Lorntzsen, Bianca; Bjerke, Trond Nergaard; Bergvik, Svein

2009-08-01

There is a need to explore the beliefs regarding the causes of illegal substance use of the people who themselves use the substances (SU) and their GPs. Increased knowledge about such beliefs--often referred to as causal attributions--may improve mutual understanding and communication between SU and GPs. Eight SU and five GPs were interviewed about the causes of illegal substance use. They also talked about how substance use was discussed in consultations. Data were analysed qualitatively. Both the SU and the GPs believed that several factors usually were important in each case of illegal substance use. The SU more often than the GPs emphasised the positive aspects of illegal substance use. We discerned five main causes: biological, social, lack of self-control, positive experiences, and chance. Several of the SU and GPs emphasised that it was difficult to communicate about substance use. The GPs and the SU believed illegal substance use is caused by many factors, including biological, social, and lack of self-control. Communicating about illegal substance use is challenging. GPs should be aware of the clinical importance of causal attributions and should explore beliefs held by SU about the causes of their substance use.

Strategic environmental assessment performance factors and their interaction: An empirical study in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tianwei, E-mail: li.tianwei@mep.gov.cn; Wang, Huizhi, E-mail: huizhiwangnk@163.com; Deng, Baole, E-mail: dengbaolekobe@126.com

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been seen as a preventive and participatory environmental management tool designed to integrate environmental protection into the decision-making process. However, the debate about SEA performance and effectiveness has increased in recent decades. Two main challenges exist in relation to this issue. The first is identifying the key influencing factors that affect SEA effectiveness, and the second is analyzing the relationship between SEA and these influencing factors. In this study, influencing factors were investigated through questionnaire surveys in the Chinese context, and then a Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential linksmore » and causal relationships among factors. The associations between the independent factors were divided into direct and indirect causal associations. The results indicate that the decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation, while information and data sharing, public participation, expertise and SEA institutions are indirectly related with SEA. The results also suggest that a lack of cooperation between different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. These findings could potentially contribute to the future management and implementation of SEA or enhance existing knowledge of SEA. The results show that the proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability. - Highlights: • Influencing factors were identified and investigated through questionnaire surveys. • Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential links and causal relationships among factors. • Decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation. • Lack of cooperation among different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. • The proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability.« less

Water quality and non-point sources of risk: the Jiulong River Watershed, P. R. of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Jingjing; Zhang, Luoping; Ricci, Paolo F

2012-01-01

Retrospective water quality assessment plays an essential role in identifying trends and causal associations between exposures and risks, thus it can be a guide for water resources management. We have developed empirical relationships between several time-varying social and economic factors of economic development, water quality variables such as nitrate-nitrogen, COD(Mn), BOD(5), and DO, in the Jiulong River Watershed and its main tributary, the West River. Our analyses used alternative statistical methods to reduce the dimensionality of the analysis first and then strengthen the study's causal associations. The statistical methods included: factor analysis (FA), trend analysis, Monte Carlo/bootstrap simulations, robust regressions and a coupled equations model, integrated into a framework that allows an investigation and resolution of the issues that may affect the estimated results. After resolving these, we found that the concentrations of nitrogen compounds increased over time in the West River region, and that fertilizer used in agricultural fruit crops was the main risk with regard to nitrogen pollution. The relationships we developed can identify hazards and explain the impact of sources of different types of pollution, such as urbanization, and agriculture.

A new approach for embedding causal sets into Minkowski space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, He; Reid, David D.

2018-06-01

This paper reports on recent work toward an approach for embedding causal sets into two-dimensional Minkowski space. The main new feature of the present scheme is its use of the spacelike distance measure to construct an ordering of causal set elements within anti-chains of a causal set as an aid to the embedding procedure.

Causal attributions in parents of babies with a cleft lip and/or palate and their association with psychological well-being.

PubMed

Nelson, Jonathan; O'Leary, Catherine; Weinman, John

2009-07-01

This study aimed to assess causal attributions of parents of babies with a cleft lip and/or palate. Evidence from causal attribution theory and attribution studies in other medical conditions led to the hypothesis that parents who make internal attributions (self-blame) will have poorer psychological well-being. A cross-sectional survey. Postal questionnaires were sent to parents of children under the care of the South Thames Cleft Service at Guy's Hospital. PARTICIPANTS were recruited if they had a baby between 12 and 24 months old with a cleft lip and/or palate. Of 204 parents, 42 responded. A semistructured questionnaire about causal beliefs was completed alongside validated questionnaires measuring anxiety, depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), and perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale). Causal attributions were grouped according to type (environmental, chance, self-blame, and no belief) and loci (external or internal). The most common attribution made was to external factors (54.4%), followed by no causal attribution (38.1%). Parents making an internal (self-blaming) attribution (16.7%) had significantly (p < .05) higher scores on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale anxiety measure (r = .32) and Perceived Stress Scale (r = .33), but not on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression measure (p = .283). The high number of parents making an external attribution can be explained by causal attribution theory. However, the percentage of parents making no causal attribution was higher than seen in previous research. Surprisingly, no parents blamed others. The main hypothesis was tentatively accepted because there were significantly higher anxiety and stress scores in parents who self-blamed; although, depression scores were not significantly higher.

Age at Menarche and Time Spent in Education: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

PubMed

Gill, D; Del Greco M, F; Rawson, T M; Sivakumaran, P; Brown, A; Sheehan, N A; Minelli, C

2017-09-01

Menarche signifies the primary event in female puberty and is associated with changes in self-identity. It is not clear whether earlier puberty causes girls to spend less time in education. Observational studies on this topic are likely to be affected by confounding environmental factors. The Mendelian randomization (MR) approach addresses these issues by using genetic variants (such as single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) as proxies for the risk factor of interest. We use this technique to explore whether there is a causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education. Instruments and SNP-age at menarche estimates are identified from a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) meta-analysis of 182,416 women of European descent. The effects of instruments on time spent in education are estimated using a GWAS meta-analysis of 118,443 women performed by the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC). In our main analysis, we demonstrate a small but statistically significant causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education: a 1 year increase in age at menarche is associated with 0.14 years (53 days) increase in time spent in education (95% CI 0.10-0.21 years, p = 3.5 × 10 -8 ). The causal effect is confirmed in sensitivity analyses. In identifying this positive causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education, we offer further insight into the social effects of puberty in girls.

CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF BIOLOGICAL IMPAIRMENT IN LONG CREEK, A SANDY-BOTTOMED STREAM IN COASTAL SOUTHERN MAINE (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

This assessment presents results from a complex causal assessment of a biologically impaired, urbanized coastal watershed located primarily in South Portland, Maine, USA—the Long Creek watershed. This case study serves as an example implementation of U.S. Environmental Protectio...

Evaluation of near-miss and adverse events in radiation oncology using a comprehensive causal factor taxonomy.

PubMed

Spraker, Matthew B; Fain, Robert; Gopan, Olga; Zeng, Jing; Nyflot, Matthew; Jordan, Loucille; Kane, Gabrielle; Ford, Eric

Incident learning systems (ILSs) are a popular strategy for improving safety in radiation oncology (RO) clinics, but few reports focus on the causes of errors in RO. The goal of this study was to test a causal factor taxonomy developed in 2012 by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine and adopted for use in the RO: Incident Learning System (RO-ILS). Three hundred event reports were randomly selected from an institutional ILS database and Safety in Radiation Oncology (SAFRON), an international ILS. The reports were split into 3 groups of 100 events each: low-risk institutional, high-risk institutional, and SAFRON. Three raters retrospectively analyzed each event for contributing factors using the American Association of Physicists in Medicine taxonomy. No events were described by a single causal factor (median, 7). The causal factor taxonomy was found to be applicable for all events, but 4 causal factors were not described in the taxonomy: linear accelerator failure (n = 3), hardware/equipment failure (n = 2), failure to follow through with a quality improvement intervention (n = 1), and workflow documentation was misleading (n = 1). The most common causal factor categories contributing to events were similar in all event types. The most common specific causal factor to contribute to events was a "slip causing physical error." Poor human factors engineering was the only causal factor found to contribute more frequently to high-risk institutional versus low-risk institutional events. The taxonomy in the study was found to be applicable for all events and may be useful in root cause analyses and future studies. Communication and human behaviors were the most common errors affecting all types of events. Poor human factors engineering was found to specifically contribute to high-risk more than low-risk institutional events, and may represent a strategy for reducing errors in all types of events. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Psychogenic Explanations of Physical Illness: Time to Examine the Evidence.

PubMed

Wilshire, Carolyn E; Ward, Tony

2016-09-01

In some patients with chronic physical complaints, detailed examination fails to reveal a well-recognized underlying disease process. In this situation, the physician may suspect a psychological cause. In this review, we critically evaluated the evidence for this causal claim, focusing on complaints presenting as neurological disorders. There were four main conclusions. First, patients with these complaints frequently exhibit psychopathology but not consistently more often than patients with a comparable "organic" diagnosis, so a causal role cannot be inferred. Second, these patients report a high incidence of adverse life experiences, but again, there is insufficient evidence to indicate a causal role for any particular type of experience. Third, although psychogenic illnesses are believed to be more responsive to psychological interventions than comparable "organic" illnesses, there is currently no evidence to support this claim. Finally, recent evidence suggests that biological and physical factors play a much greater causal role in these illnesses than previously believed. We conclude that there is currently little evidential support for psychogenic theories of illness in the neurological domain. In future research, researchers need to take a wider view concerning the etiology of these illnesses. © The Author(s) 2016.

Investigating Driver Fatigue versus Alertness Using the Granger Causality Network.

PubMed

Kong, Wanzeng; Lin, Weicheng; Babiloni, Fabio; Hu, Sanqing; Borghini, Gianluca

2015-08-05

Driving fatigue has been identified as one of the main factors affecting drivers' safety. The aim of this study was to analyze drivers' different mental states, such as alertness and drowsiness, and find out a neurometric indicator able to detect drivers' fatigue level in terms of brain networks. Twelve young, healthy subjects were recruited to take part in a driver fatigue experiment under different simulated driving conditions. The Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals of the subjects were recorded during the whole experiment and analyzed by using Granger-Causality-based brain effective networks. It was that the topology of the brain networks and the brain's ability to integrate information changed when subjects shifted from the alert to the drowsy stage. In particular, there was a significant difference in terms of strength of Granger causality (GC) in the frequency domain and the properties of the brain effective network i.e., causal flow, global efficiency and characteristic path length between such conditions. Also, some changes were more significant over the frontal brain lobes for the alpha frequency band. These findings might be used to detect drivers' fatigue levels, and as reference work for future studies.

Investigating Driver Fatigue versus Alertness Using the Granger Causality Network

PubMed Central

Kong, Wanzeng; Lin, Weicheng; Babiloni, Fabio; Hu, Sanqing; Borghini, Gianluca

2015-01-01

Driving fatigue has been identified as one of the main factors affecting drivers’ safety. The aim of this study was to analyze drivers’ different mental states, such as alertness and drowsiness, and find out a neurometric indicator able to detect drivers’ fatigue level in terms of brain networks. Twelve young, healthy subjects were recruited to take part in a driver fatigue experiment under different simulated driving conditions. The Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals of the subjects were recorded during the whole experiment and analyzed by using Granger-Causality-based brain effective networks. It was that the topology of the brain networks and the brain’s ability to integrate information changed when subjects shifted from the alert to the drowsy stage. In particular, there was a significant difference in terms of strength of Granger causality (GC) in the frequency domain and the properties of the brain effective network i.e., causal flow, global efficiency and characteristic path length between such conditions. Also, some changes were more significant over the frontal brain lobes for the alpha frequency band. These findings might be used to detect drivers’ fatigue levels, and as reference work for future studies. PMID:26251909

Population-based health promotion perspective for older driver safety: Conceptual framework to intervention plan

PubMed Central

Classen, Sherrilene; Lopez, Ellen DS; Winter, Sandra; Awadzi, Kezia D; Ferree, Nita; Garvan, Cynthia W

2007-01-01

The topic of motor vehicle crashes among the elderly is dynamic and multi-faceted requiring a comprehensive and synergistic approach to intervention planning. This approach must be based on the values of a given population as well as health statistics and asserted through community, organizational and policy strategies. An integrated summary of the predictors (quantitative research), and views (qualitative research) of the older drivers and their stakeholders, does not currently exist. This study provided an explicit socio-ecological view explaining the interrelation of possible causative factors, an integrated summary of these causative factors, and empirical guidelines for developing public health interventions to promote older driver safety. Using a mixed methods approach, we were able to compare and integrate main findings from a national crash dataset with perspectives of stakeholders. We identified: 11 multi-causal factors for safe elderly driving; the importance of the environmental factors - previously underrated in the literature- interacting with behavioral and health factors; and the interrelatedness among many socio-ecological factors. For the first time, to our knowledge, we conceptualized the fundamental elements of a multi-causal health promotion plan, with measurable intermediate and long-term outcomes. After completing the detailed plan we will test the effectiveness of this intervention on multiple levels. PMID:18225470

Identification of causal genes for complex traits

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2015-01-01

Motivation: Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider ‘causal variants’ as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. Results: In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Availability and implementation: Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. Contact: eeskin@cs.ucla.edu PMID:26072484

Identification of causal genes for complex traits.

PubMed

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2015-06-15

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider 'causal variants' as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Accounting for occurrences: an explanation for some novel tendencies in causal judgment from contingency information.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2009-06-01

Contingency information is information about empirical associations between possible causes and outcomes. In the present research, it is shown that, under some circumstances, there is a tendency for negative contingencies to lead to positive causal judgments and for positive contingencies to lead to negative causal judgments. If there is a high proportion of instances in which a candidate cause (CC) being judged is present, these tendencies are predicted by weighted averaging models of causal judgment. If the proportion of such instances is low, the predictions of weighted averaging models break down. It is argued that one of the main aims of causal judgment is to account for occurrences of the outcome. Thus, a CC is not given a high causal judgment if there are few or no occurrences of it, regardless of the objective contingency. This argument predicts that, if there is a low proportion of instances in which a CC is present, causal judgments are determined mainly by the number of Cell A instances (i.e., CC present, outcome occurs), and that this explains why weighted averaging models fail to predict judgmental tendencies under these circumstances. Experimental results support this argument.

Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor (AMF): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

AD Award Number: DAMD17-02-1-0586 TITLE: Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia PRINCIPAL...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia 5b. GRANT NUMBER DAM D1 7-02-1-0586 5c...quality of life and postpone mortality. We proposed that autocrine motility factor ( AMF ) is released into the bloodstream from cancer sites and

Academic Success Factors: An IT Student Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Aimao; Aasheim, Cheryl L.

2011-01-01

Numerous studies have identified causal factors for academic success. Factors vary from personal factors, such as cognitive style (McKenzie & Schweitzer, 2001), to social factors, such as culture differences (Aysan, Tanriogen, & Tanriogen, 1996). However, in these studies it is re-searchers who theorized the causal dimensions and…

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

2012-11-01

This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis.

PubMed

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-03-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher's C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation.

Causes and correlations in cambium phenology: towards an integrated framework of xylogenesis

PubMed Central

Rossi, Sergio; Morin, Hubert; Deslauriers, Annie

2012-01-01

Although habitually considered as a whole, xylogenesis is a complex process of division and maturation of a pool of cells where the relationship between the phenological phases generating such a growth pattern remains essentially unknown. This study investigated the causal relationships in cambium phenology of black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP] monitored for 8 years on four sites of the boreal forest of Quebec, Canada. The dependency links connecting the timing of xylem cell differentiation and cell production were defined and the resulting causal model was analysed with d-sep tests and generalized mixed models with repeated measurements, and tested with Fisher’s C statistics to determine whether and how causality propagates through the measured variables. The higher correlations were observed between the dates of emergence of the first developing cells and between the ending of the differentiation phases, while the number of cells was significantly correlated with all phenological phases. The model with eight dependency links was statistically valid for explaining the causes and correlations between the dynamics of cambium phenology. Causal modelling suggested that the phenological phases involved in xylogenesis are closely interconnected by complex relationships of cause and effect, with the onset of cell differentiation being the main factor directly or indirectly triggering all successive phases of xylem maturation. PMID:22174441

Analysis of genetic diversity of Fusarium tupiense, the main causal agent of mango malformation disease in southern Spain

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mango malformation disease (MMD) has become an important global disease affecting this crop. The aim of this study was to identify the main causal agents of MMD in the Axarquía region of southern Spain and determine their genetic diversity. Fusarium mangiferae was previously described in the Axarquí...

Is There a Causal Relation between Mathematical Creativity and Mathematical Problem-Solving Performance?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tyagi, Tarun Kumar

2016-01-01

The relationship between mathematical creativity (MC) and mathematical problem-solving performance (MP) has often been studied but the causal relation between these two constructs has yet to be clearly reported. The main purpose of this study was to define the causal relationship between MC and MP. Data from a representative sample of 480…

The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea

PubMed Central

Khang, Young-Ho

2015-01-01

This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals. PMID:26137845

The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea.

PubMed

Khang, Young-Ho

2015-01-01

This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals.

Investigating the causality of changes in the landscape pattern of Lake Urmia basin, Iran using remote sensing and time series analysis.

PubMed

Mehrian, Majid Ramezani; Hernandez, Raul Ponce; Yavari, Ahmad Reza; Faryadi, Shahrzad; Salehi, Esmaeil

2016-08-01

Lake Urmia is the second largest hypersaline lake in the world in terms of surface area. In recent decades, the drop in water level of the lake has been one of the most important environmental issues in Iran. At present, the entire basin is threatened due to abrupt decline of the lake's water level and the consequent increase in salinity. Despite the numerous studies, there is still an ambiguity about the main cause of this environmental crisis. This paper is an attempt to detect the changes in the landscape structure of the main elements of the whole basin using remote sensing techniques and analyze the results against climate data with time series analysis for the purpose of achieving a more clarified illustration of processes and trends. Trend analysis of the different affecting factors indicates that the main cause of the drastic dry out of the lake is the huge expansion of irrigated agriculture in the basin between 1999 and 2014. The climatological parameters including precipitation and temperature cannot be the main reasons for reduced water level in the lake. The results show how the increase in irrigated agricultural area without considering the water resources limits can lead to a regional disaster. The approach used in this study can be a useful tool to monitor and assess the causality of environmental disaster.

The influence of linguistic and cognitive factors on the time course of verb-based implicit causality.

PubMed

Koornneef, Arnout; Dotlačil, Jakub; van den Broek, Paul; Sanders, Ted

2016-01-01

In three eye-tracking experiments the influence of the Dutch causal connective "want" (because) and the working memory capacity of readers on the usage of verb-based implicit causality was examined. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although a causal connective is not required to activate implicit causality information during reading, effects of implicit causality surfaced more rapidly and were more pronounced when a connective was present in the discourse than when it was absent. In addition, Experiment 3 revealed that-in contrast to previous claims-the activation of implicit causality is not a resource-consuming mental operation. Moreover, readers with higher and lower working memory capacities behaved differently in a dual-task situation. Higher span readers were more likely to use implicit causality when they had all their working memory resources at their disposal. Lower span readers showed the opposite pattern as they were more likely to use the implicit causality cue in the case of an additional working memory load. The results emphasize that both linguistic and cognitive factors mediate the impact of implicit causality on text comprehension. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of the ongoing controversies in the literature-that is, the focusing-integration debate and the debates on the source of implicit causality.

Tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and gastro-oesophageal reflux disease.

PubMed

Ness-Jensen, Eivind; Lagergren, Jesper

2017-10-01

Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD) develops when reflux of gastric content causes troublesome symptoms or complications. The main symptoms are heartburn and acid regurgitation and complications include oesophagitis, strictures, Barrett's oesophagus and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. In addition to hereditary influence, GORD is associated with lifestyle factors, mainly obesity. Tobacco smoking is regarded as an aetiological factor of GORD, while alcohol consumption is considered a triggering factor of reflux episodes and not a causal factor. Yet, both tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption can reduce the lower oesophageal sphincter pressure, facilitating reflux. In addition, tobacco smoking reduces the production of saliva rich in bicarbonate, which is important for buffering and clearance of acid in the oesophagus. Alcohol also has a direct noxious effect on the oesophageal mucosa, which predisposes to acidic injury. Tobacco smoking cessation reduces the risk of GORD symptoms and avoidance of alcohol is encouraged in individuals where alcohol consumption triggers reflux. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Can Historical Understanding Best be Assessed? Use of Prediction Tasks To Assess How Students Understand the Role of Causal Factors that Produce Historical Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alonso-Tapia, Jesus; Villa, Jose Luis

1999-01-01

Examines the viability of using hypothetical problems that need the application of causal models for their solution as a method to assessing understanding in the social sciences. Explains that this method was used to describe how seventh-grade students understand causal factors affecting the "discovery and colonization of America." (CMK)

Situation models and memory: the effects of temporal and causal information on recall sequence.

PubMed

Brownstein, Aaron L; Read, Stephen J

2007-10-01

Participants watched an episode of the television show Cheers on video and then reported free recall. Recall sequence followed the sequence of events in the story; if one concept was observed immediately after another, it was recalled immediately after it. We also made a causal network of the show's story and found that recall sequence followed causal links; effects were recalled immediately after their causes. Recall sequence was more likely to follow causal links than temporal sequence, and most likely to follow causal links that were temporally sequential. Results were similar at 10-minute and 1-week delayed recall. This is the most direct and detailed evidence reported on sequential effects in recall. The causal network also predicted probability of recall; concepts with more links and concepts on the main causal chain were most likely to be recalled. This extends the causal network model to more complex materials than previous research.

An Efficient Two-Tier Causal Protocol for Mobile Distributed Systems

PubMed Central

Dominguez, Eduardo Lopez; Pomares Hernandez, Saul E.; Gomez, Gustavo Rodriguez; Medina, Maria Auxilio

2013-01-01

Causal ordering is a useful tool for mobile distributed systems (MDS) to reduce the non-determinism induced by three main aspects: host mobility, asynchronous execution, and unpredictable communication delays. Several causal protocols for MDS exist. Most of them, in order to reduce the overhead and the computational cost over wireless channels and mobile hosts (MH), ensure causal ordering at and according to the causal view of the Base Stations. Nevertheless, these protocols introduce certain disadvantage, such as unnecessary inhibition at the delivery of messages. In this paper, we present an efficient causal protocol for groupware that satisfies the MDS's constraints, avoiding unnecessary inhibitions and ensuring the causal delivery based on the view of the MHs. One interesting aspect of our protocol is that it dynamically adapts the causal information attached to each message based on the number of messages with immediate dependency relation, and this is not directly proportional to the number of MHs. PMID:23585828

Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

PubMed

Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

2015-07-01

Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

Mapping historical information for better understanding the causality factors of past disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

2015-04-01

The Flood Directive of 2007 promotes the use of historical information in order to mitigate the impact of future extreme events. According to this text, the study of past events offers new insights for better understanding the causality factors of a disaster, from hydrometeorological keys to socio-political repercussions of the flood. In this presentation we decided to focus on the study of factors leading to the exceptionality of a hydrological flood event. This aspect is regularly pointed out by the feedbacks carried out after a catastrophic event and remains a subject of debate for risk managers. The role of antecedent meteorological conditions is especially underestimated by local authorities. These factors can however be considered as a key issue to appreciate the exceptional character of a hydrological disaster. For example the 2013 June floods in France that affected the region of Pyrenees revealed the significant contribution of snow melting to the discharges recorded. In an article of 2014, Schröter et al. showed that the soil moisture can be considered as a key driver of the generalised flood hazard intensity that affected Germany over the same month of June 2013. With regard to these assessments, some considerations emerge. Does a diachronic appraisal of past disasters point out the main issues responsible for an exceptional flood hazard level? Is there common causality issues involved into these extreme hydrological events? In order to answer these questions this presentation proposes a comparative analysis of nine major floods that impacted the French territory during the XXth century (from 1910 to 2010). The set is composed by different flood typologies (from torrential events to floods resulting from groundwater level rising) so as to get a complete view of flood risk in France. The methodology proposed relies on a cartographic approach to highlight the causality factors of these past hydrological disasters. For instance, mapping the rainfall data over the representation of the maximum discharges recorded can help to understand the significance of the rainfall event. In some cases, the use of textual historical information allows to emphasize the significance of other factors such as snow melting or the influence of anthropogenic infrastructures. Indeed, mapping historical information seems to be an original approach to represent the various spatial and temporal scales of historical disasters and an interesting tool to explore the exceptionality of the hazard level.

From Correlates to Causes: Can Quasi-Experimental Studies and Statistical Innovations Bring Us Closer to Identifying the Causes of Antisocial Behavior?

PubMed Central

Jaffee, Sara R.; Strait, Luciana B.; Odgers, Candice L.

2011-01-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this paper, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move us beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that use these methods and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. For most of the risk factors we review, there is evidence that they have causal effects. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems) the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior. PMID:22023141

From correlates to causes: can quasi-experimental studies and statistical innovations bring us closer to identifying the causes of antisocial behavior?

PubMed

Jaffee, Sara R; Strait, Luciana B; Odgers, Candice L

2012-03-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this article, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move researchers beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that used these methods, and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. There is evidence of causal effects for most of the risk factors we review. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems), the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior.

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

PubMed Central

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-01-01

Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies. PMID:17645806

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

PubMed

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

Combining human and machine intelligence to derive agents' behavioral rules for groundwater irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao; Quinn, Christopher J.; Cai, Ximing; Garfinkle, Noah W.

2017-11-01

For agent-based modeling, the major challenges in deriving agents' behavioral rules arise from agents' bounded rationality and data scarcity. This study proposes a "gray box" approach to address the challenge by incorporating expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) with machine learning techniques (i.e., machine intelligence). Specifically, we propose using directed information graph (DIG), boosted regression trees (BRT), and domain knowledge to infer causal factors and identify behavioral rules from data. A case study is conducted to investigate farmers' pumping behavior in the Midwest, U.S.A. Results show that four factors identified by the DIG algorithm- corn price, underlying groundwater level, monthly mean temperature and precipitation- have main causal influences on agents' decisions on monthly groundwater irrigation depth. The agent-based model is then developed based on the behavioral rules represented by three DIGs and modeled by BRTs, and coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the impacts of agents' pumping behavior on the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and environmental systems.

NON-MENDELIAN ETIOLOGIC FACTORS IN NEUROPSYCHIATRIC ILLNESS: PLEIOTROPY, EPIGENETICS, AND CONVERGENCE

PubMed Central

Deutsch, Curtis K; McIlvane, William J

2013-01-01

The target article by Charney on behavior genetics/genomics discusses how numerous molecular factors can inform heritability estimations and genetic association studies. These factors find application in the search for genes for behavioral phenotypes, including neuropsychiatric disorders. We elaborate upon how single causal factors can generate multiple phenotypes, and discuss how multiple causal factors may converge on common neurodevelopmental mechanisms. PMID:23095384

Panhypopituitarism due to Absence of the Pituitary Stalk: A Rare Aetiology of Liver Cirrhosis.

PubMed

Gonzalez Rozas, Marta; Hernanz Roman, Lidia; Gonzalez, Diego Gonzalez; Pérez-Castrillón, José Luis

2016-01-01

Studies have established a relationship between hypothalamic-pituitary dysfunction and the onset of liver damage, which may occasionally progress to cirrhosis. Patients with hypopituitarism can develop a metabolic syndrome-like phenotype. Insulin resistance is the main pathophysiological axis of metabolic syndrome and is the causal factor in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We present the case of a young patient with liver cirrhosis of unknown aetiology that was finally attributed to panhypopituitarism.

Panhypopituitarism due to Absence of the Pituitary Stalk: A Rare Aetiology of Liver Cirrhosis

PubMed Central

Gonzalez Rozas, Marta; Hernanz Roman, Lidia; Gonzalez, Diego Gonzalez; Pérez-Castrillón, José Luis

2016-01-01

Studies have established a relationship between hypothalamic-pituitary dysfunction and the onset of liver damage, which may occasionally progress to cirrhosis. Patients with hypopituitarism can develop a metabolic syndrome-like phenotype. Insulin resistance is the main pathophysiological axis of metabolic syndrome and is the causal factor in the development of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We present the case of a young patient with liver cirrhosis of unknown aetiology that was finally attributed to panhypopituitarism. PMID:27213061

Stable Causal Relationships Are Better Causal Relationships.

PubMed

Vasilyeva, Nadya; Blanchard, Thomas; Lombrozo, Tania

2018-05-01

We report three experiments investigating whether people's judgments about causal relationships are sensitive to the robustness or stability of such relationships across a range of background circumstances. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that people are more willing to endorse causal and explanatory claims based on stable (as opposed to unstable) relationships, even when the overall causal strength of the relationship is held constant. In Experiment 2, we show that this effect is not driven by a causal generalization's actual scope of application. In Experiment 3, we offer evidence that stable causal relationships may be seen as better guides to action. Collectively, these experiments document a previously underappreciated factor that shapes people's causal reasoning: the stability of the causal relationship. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Exploring Work-Related Causal Attributions of Common Mental Disorders.

PubMed

Olsen, Ingrid Blø; Øverland, Simon; Reme, Silje Endresen; Løvvik, Camilla

2015-09-01

Common mental disorders (CMDs) are major causes of sickness absence and disability. Prevention requires knowledge of how individuals perceive causal mechanisms, and in this study we sought to examine work-related factors as causal attribution of CMDs. A trial sample of n = 1,193, recruited because they struggled with work participation due to CMDs, answered an open-ended questionnaire item about what they believed were the most important causes of their CMDs. The population included participants at risk of sickness absence, and participants with reduced work participation due to sickness absence, disability or unemployment. We used thematic content analysis and categorized responses from 487 participants who reported work-related factors as causal attributions of their CMDs. Gender differences in work-related causal attributions were also examined. The participants attributed their CMDs to the following work-related factors; work stress, leadership, reduced work participation, job dissatisfaction, work conflict, social work environment, job insecurity and change, workplace bullying, and physical strain. Women tended to attribute CMDs to social factors at work. Findings from this study suggest several work-related risk factors for CMDs. Both factors at the workplace, and reduced work participation, were perceived by study participants as contributing causes of CMDs. Thus, there is a need to promote work participation whilst at the same time targeting aversive workplace factors. Further, our findings indicate that work-related factors may affect women and men differently. This illustrates that the association between work participation and CMDs is complex, and needs to be explored further.

Exploring the relationship between the causal-inference and meta-analytic paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints.

PubMed

Van der Elst, Wim; Molenberghs, Geert; Alonso, Ariel

2016-04-15

Nowadays, two main frameworks for the evaluation of surrogate endpoints, based on causal-inference and meta-analysis, dominate the scene. Earlier work showed that the metrics of surrogacy introduced in both paradigms are related, although in a complex way that is difficult to study analytically. In the present work, this relationship is further examined using simulations and the analysis of a case study. The results indicate that the extent to which both paradigms lead to similar conclusions regarding the validity of the surrogate, depends on a complex interplay between multiple factors like the ratio of the between and within trial variability and the unidentifiable correlations between the potential outcomes. All the analyses were carried out using the newly developed R package Surrogate, which is freely available via CRAN. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Critical factors and paths influencing construction workers' safety risk tolerances.

PubMed

Wang, Jiayuan; Zou, Patrick X W; Li, Penny P

2016-08-01

While workers' safety risk tolerances have been regarded as a main reason for their unsafe behaviors, little is known about why different people have different risk tolerances even when confronting the same situation. The aim of this research is to identify the critical factors and paths that influence workers' safety risk tolerance and to explore how they contribute to accident causal model from a system thinking perceptive. A number of methods were carried out to analyze the data collected through interviews and questionnaire surveys. In the first and second steps of the research, factor identification, factor ranking and factor analysis were carried out, and the results show that workers' safety risk tolerance can be influenced by four groups of factors, namely: (1) personal subjective perception; (2) work knowledge and experiences; (3) work characteristics; and (4) safety management. In the third step of the research, hypothetical influencing path model was developed and tested by using structural equation modeling (SEM). It is found that the effects of external factors (safety management and work characteristics) on risk tolerance are larger than that of internal factors (personal subjective perception and work knowledge & experiences). Specifically, safety management contributes the most to workers' safety risk tolerance through its direct effect and indirect effect; while personal subjective perception comes the second and can act as an intermedia for work characteristics. This research provides an in-depth insight of workers' unsafe behaviors by depicting the contributing factors as shown in the accident causal model developed in this research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The association between human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal squamous cell Carcinoma: Reviewed according to the Bradford Hill criteria for causality.

PubMed

Walvik, Lena; Svensson, Amanda Björk; Friborg, Jeppe; Lajer, Christel Bræmer

2016-12-01

There is emerging evidence of the association between human papillomavirus and a subset of head and neck cancers. However, the role of human papillomavirus as a causal factor is still debated. This review addresses the association between human papillomavirus and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma using the Bradford Hill criteria. The strength of the association is supported by, detection of human papillomavirus infection and antibodies prior to oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. This is furthermore reinforced by the absence of human papillomavirus DNA in healthy tonsils. The association is geographically consistent throughout the economically developed world. The presence and integration of high-risk human papillomavirus genome in tonsillar tumours, and expression of viral oncogenes, are specific and plausible. Analogous to human papillomavirus in cervical cancer, the rising incidence in human papillomavirus positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma is associated with sexual behaviour. These associations have been repeatedly observed and are in accordance with our current knowledge. The time relation between cause and effect remains the main challenge, due to the lack of well-defined premalignant lesions. However, a causal relationship between human papillomavirus infection and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma seems evident. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed

Verbeek, Jos

2012-06-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely.

When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely. PMID:22993715

Urbanism and Life Satisfaction among the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liang, Jersey; Warfel, Becky L.

1983-01-01

Examined the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined using a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction. (Author/JAC)

Genetic origin of the relationship between parental negativity and behavior problems from early childhood to adolescence: A longitudinal genetically sensitive study

PubMed Central

Alemany, Silvia; Rijsdijk, Frühling V.; Haworth, Claire Margaret Alison; Fañanás, Lourdes; Plomin, Robert

2013-01-01

Little is known about how genetic and environmental factors contribute to the association between parental negativity and behavior problems from early childhood to adolescence. The current study fitted a cross-lagged model in a sample consisting of 4,075 twin pairs to explore (a) the role of genetic and environmental factors in the relationship between parental negativity and behavior problems from age 4 to age 12, (b) whether parent-driven and child-driven processes independently explain the association, and (c) whether there are sex differences in this relationship. Both phenotypes showed substantial genetic influence at both ages. The concurrent overlap between them was mainly accounted for by genetic factors. Causal pathways representing stability of the phenotypes and parent-driven and child-driven effects significantly and independently account for the association. Significant but slight differences were found between males and females for parent-driven effects. These results were highly similar when general cognitive ability was added asa covariate. In summary, the longitudinal association between parental negativity and behavior problems seems to be bidirectional and mainly accounted for by genetic factors. Furthermore, child-driven effects were mainly genetically mediated, and parent-driven effects were a function of both genetic and shared-environmental factors. PMID:23627958

Modeling of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muda, Nora; Ainuddeen, Nasihah Rasyiqah; Ismail, Hamizun; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2013-04-01

This study was conducted to identify the main factors that contribute to the gold production and hence determine the factors that affect to the development of the mining industry in Malaysia. An econometric approach was used by performing the cointegration analysis among the factors to determine the existence of long term relationship between the gold prices, the number of gold mines, the number of workers in gold mines and the gold production. The study continued with the Granger analysis to determine the relationship between factors and gold production. Results have found that there are long term relationship between price, gold production and number of employees. Granger causality analysis shows that there is only one way relationship between the number of employees with gold production in Malaysia and the number of gold mines in Malaysia.

What Women Think: Cancer Causal Attributions in a Diverse Sample of Women

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Vivian M.; Gyure, Maria E.; Corona, Rosalie; Bodurtha, Joann N.; Bowen, Deborah J.; Quillin, John M.

2014-01-01

Women hold diverse beliefs about cancer etiology, potentially affecting their use of cancer preventive behaviors. To date, research has greatly focused on the causal attributions cancer patients and survivors hold about cancer, and studies have been conducted primarily with White participants. Less is known about causal attributions held by women with and without a family history of cancer from a diverse community sample. This study sought to identify cancer causal attributions of women with and without a family history of cancer, and explore its relation to socio-cultural factors. Diverse women (60% African-American) recruited at an urban, safety-net women's health clinic (N=471) reported factors they believed cause cancer. Responses were coded into nine attributions and analyzed using chi-squares and logistic regressions. Lifestyle-choices (63%), genetics/heredity (34%), and environmental-exposures (19%) were the top causal attributions identified. Women without a family history of cancer were more likely to identify genetics/heredity as an attribution for cancer than women with a history of cancer in their families. Women who identified as White, who had a higher educational attainment, and had commercial insurance were more likely to report genetics/heredity as a causal attribution for cancer. These findings suggest that socio-cultural factors may play a role in the causal attributions individuals make about cancer, which can, in turn, inform cancer awareness and prevention messages. PMID:25398057

Multivariate Granger causality: an estimation framework based on factorization of the spectral density matrix

PubMed Central

Wen, Xiaotong; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

2013-01-01

Granger causality is increasingly being applied to multi-electrode neurophysiological and functional imaging data to characterize directional interactions between neurons and brain regions. For a multivariate dataset, one might be interested in different subsets of the recorded neurons or brain regions. According to the current estimation framework, for each subset, one conducts a separate autoregressive model fitting process, introducing the potential for unwanted variability and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality. It is based on spectral density matrix factorization and offers the advantage that the estimation of such a matrix needs to be done only once for the entire multivariate dataset. For any subset of recorded data, Granger causality can be calculated through factorizing the appropriate submatrix of the overall spectral density matrix. PMID:23858479

Analysis of Factors Influencing PM2.5 in Beijing: A Microcosmic and Dynamic Perspective for Sustainable Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yani; Wang, Jun; Tao, Guiping

2017-12-01

Haze pollution has become a hot issue concerned with the process of modernization and one serious problem requiring urgent solution, especially in Beijing. PM2.5 is the main reason causing haze and its harm. Although there has been research centering on factors affecting PM2.5, little attention has been devoted to the microcosmic and dynamic effects on it. Vector auto-regression (VAR) mode is applied in this study to explore the interaction between PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO and NO2. Results of Granger causality tests tell that there exists causal relationship between PM10, SO2, CO, NO2 and PM2.5. Impulse response functions (IRFs) show that the response of PM2.5 to a shock in CO is positive and large in the short period, while the reaction of PM2.5 to a shock in SO2 increases over time. Meanwhile, variance decomposition indicate that PM2.5 is more closely related to CO in the short term while SO2’ influence accounts for a higher proportion in the long run. The findings provide a novel perspective to analyze the factors influencing PM2.5 dynamically and contribute to a better understanding of haze and its relationship with sustainable development.

Property transmission: an explanatory account of the role of similarity information in causal inference.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2009-09-01

Many kinds of common and easily observed causal relations exhibit property transmission, which is a tendency for the causal object to impose its own properties on the effect object. It is proposed that property transmission becomes a general and readily available hypothesis used to make interpretations and judgments about causal questions under conditions of uncertainty, in which property transmission functions as a heuristic. The property transmission hypothesis explains why and when similarity information is used in causal inference. It can account for magical contagion beliefs, some cases of illusory correlation, the correspondence bias, overestimation of cross-situational consistency in behavior, nonregressive tendencies in prediction, the belief that acts of will are causes of behavior, and a range of other phenomena. People learn that property transmission is often moderated by other factors, but under conditions of uncertainty in which the operation of relevant other factors is unknown, it tends to exhibit a pervasive influence on thinking about causality. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors.

PubMed

Tropf, Felix C; Mandemakers, Jornt J

2017-02-01

A large body of literature has demonstrated a positive relationship between education and age at first birth. However, this relationship may be partly spurious because of family background factors that cannot be controlled for in most research designs. We investigate the extent to which education is causally related to later age at first birth in a large sample of female twins from the United Kingdom (N = 2,752). We present novel estimates using within-identical twin and biometric models. Our findings show that one year of additional schooling is associated with about one-half year later age at first birth in ordinary least squares (OLS) models. This estimate reduced to only a 1.5-month later age at first birth for the within-identical twin model controlling for all shared family background factors (genetic and family environmental). Biometric analyses reveal that it is mainly influences of the family environment-not genetic factors-that cause spurious associations between education and age at first birth. Last, using data from the Office for National Statistics, we demonstrate that only 1.9 months of the 2.74 years of fertility postponement for birth cohorts 1944-1967 could be attributed to educational expansion based on these estimates. We conclude that the rise in educational attainment alone cannot explain differences in fertility timing between cohorts.

Correlation of causal factors that influence construction safety performance: A model.

PubMed

Rodrigues, F; Coutinho, A; Cardoso, C

2015-01-01

The construction sector has presented positive development regarding the decrease in occupational accident rates in recent years. Regardless, the construction sector stands out systematically from other industries due to its high number of fatalities. The aim of this paper is to deeply understand the causality of construction accidents from the early design phase through a model. This study reviewed several research papers presenting various analytical models that correlate the contributing factors to occupational accidents in this sector. This study also analysed different construction projects and conducted a survey of design and site supervision teams. This paper proposes a model developed from the analysis of existing ones, which correlates the causal factors through all the construction phases. It was concluded that effective risk prevention can only be achieved by a global correlation of causal factors including not only production ones but also client requirements, financial climate, design team competence, project and risk management, financial capacity, health and safety policy and early planning. Accordingly, a model is proposed.

Cannabis and psychosis: what is the link?

PubMed

Ben Amar, Mohamed; Potvin, Stéphane

2007-06-01

Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that cannabis consumption is a risk factor for the development of psychotic symptoms. Nonetheless, controversy remains about the causal nature of the association. This review takes the debate further through a critical appraisal of the evidence. An electronic search was performed, allowing to identify 622 studies published until June 1st 2005. Longitudinal studies and literature reviews were selected if they addressed specifically the issues of the cannabis/psychosis relationship or possible mechanisms involved. Ten epidemiological studies were relevant: three supported a causal relationship between cannabis use and diagnosed psychosis; five suggested that chronic cannabis intake increases the frequency of psychotic symptoms, but not of diagnosed psychosis; and two showed no causal relationship. Potential neurobiological mechanisms were also identified, involving dopamine, endocannabinoids, and brain growth factors. Although there is evidence that cannabis use increases the risk of developing psychotic symptoms, the causal nature of this association remains unclear. Contributing factors include heavy consumption, length and early age of exposure, and psychotic vulnerability. This conclusion should be mitigated by uncertainty arising from cannabis use assessment, psychosis measurement, reverse causality and control of residual confounding.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

Evidence for the Convergence Model: The Emergence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Viet Nam

PubMed Central

Saksena, Sumeet; Fox, Jefferson; Epprecht, Michael; Tran, Chinh C.; Nong, Duong H.; Spencer, James H.; Nguyen, Lam; Finucane, Melissa L.; Tran, Vien D.; Wilcox, Bruce A.

2015-01-01

Building on a series of ground breaking reviews that first defined and drew attention to emerging infectious diseases (EID), the ‘convergence model’ was proposed to explain the multifactorial causality of disease emergence. The model broadly hypothesizes disease emergence is driven by the co-incidence of genetic, physical environmental, ecological, and social factors. We developed and tested a model of the emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 based on suspected convergence factors that are mainly associated with land-use change. Building on previous geospatial statistical studies that identified natural and human risk factors associated with urbanization, we added new factors to test whether causal mechanisms and pathogenic landscapes could be more specifically identified. Our findings suggest that urbanization spatially combines risk factors to produce particular types of peri-urban landscapes with significantly higher HPAI H5N1 emergence risk. The work highlights that peri-urban areas of Viet Nam have higher levels of chicken densities, duck and geese flock size diversities, and fraction of land under rice or aquaculture than rural and urban areas. We also found that land-use diversity, a surrogate measure for potential mixing of host populations and other factors that likely influence viral transmission, significantly improves the model’s predictability. Similarly, landscapes where intensive and extensive forms of poultry production overlap were found at greater risk. These results support the convergence hypothesis in general and demonstrate the potential to improve EID prevention and control by combing geospatial monitoring of these factors along with pathogen surveillance programs. PMID:26398118

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-20

Granger causality F-test validation 3.1.2. Dynamic time warping for uneven temporal relationships Many causal relationships are imperfectly...mapping for dynamic feedback models Granger causality and DTW can identify causal relationships and consider complex temporal factors. However, many ...variant of the tf-idf algorithm (Manning, Raghavan, Schutze et al., 2008), typically used in search engines, to “score” features. The (-log tf) in

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

2015-01-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

The Singaporean public beliefs about the causes of mental illness: results from a multi-ethnic population-based study.

PubMed

Pang, S; Subramaniam, M; Lee, S P; Lau, Y W; Abdin, E; Chua, B Y; Picco, L; Vaingankar, J A; Chong, S A

2017-04-03

To identify the common causal beliefs of mental illness in a multi-ethnic Southeast Asian community and describe the sociodemographic associations to said beliefs. The factor structure to the causal beliefs scale is explored. The causal beliefs relating to five different mental illnesses (alcohol abuse, depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), dementia and schizophrenia) and desire for social distance are also investigated. Data from 3006 participants from a nationwide vignette-based study on mental health literacy were analysed using factor analysis and multiple logistic regression to address the aims. Participants answered questions related to sociodemographic information, causal beliefs of mental illness and their desire for social distance towards those with mental illness. Physical causes, psychosocial causes and personality causes were endorsed by the sample. Sociodemographic differences including ethnic, gender and age differences in causal beliefs were found in the sample. Differences in causal beliefs were shown across different mental illness vignettes though psychosocial causes was the most highly attributed cause across vignettes (endorsed by 97.9% of respondents), followed by personality causes (83.5%) and last, physical causes (37%). Physical causes were more likely to be endorsed for OCD, depression and schizophrenia. Psychosocial causes were less often endorsed for OCD. Personality causes were less endorsed for dementia but more associated with depression. The factor structure of the causal beliefs scale is not entirely the same as that found in previous research. Further research on the causal beliefs endorsed by Southeast Asian communities should be conducted to investigate other potential causes such as biogenetic factors and spiritual/supernatural causes. Mental health awareness campaigns should address causes of mental illness as a topic. Lay beliefs in the different causes must be acknowledged and it would be beneficial for the public to be informed of the causes of some of the most common mental illnesses in order to encourage help-seeking and treatment compliance.

Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, E. Michael

2010-01-01

Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

PubMed

Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

2016-05-01

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.

Evaluation of crash rates and causal factors for high-risk locations on rural and urban two-lane highways in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Considerable efforts have been made in recent years to make highway travel safer. Traffic engineers continue to emphasize the identification of causal factors for crashes on individual sections and on different functional classes of highways as an ar...

Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: Using the children-of-twins design to test causal hypotheses

PubMed Central

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D’Onofrio, Brian M

2013-01-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behaviour. It is not clear if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children-of-siblings and children-of-twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant MZ twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association. PMID:23398750

Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: using the children of twins design to test causal hypotheses.

PubMed

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2013-02-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behavior. It is not clear, however, if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children of siblings and children of twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant monozygotic twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association.

Genomic selection in domestic animals: Principles, applications and perspectives.

PubMed

Boichard, Didier; Ducrocq, Vincent; Croiseau, Pascal; Fritz, Sébastien

2016-01-01

The principles of genomic selection are described, with the main factors affecting its efficiency and the assumptions underlying the different models proposed. The reasons of its fast adoption in dairy cattle are explained and the conditions of its application to other species are discussed. Perspectives of development include: selection for new traits and new breeding objectives; adoption of more robust approaches based on information on causal variants; predictions of genotype×environment interactions. Copyright © 2016 Académie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Evidence for Shared Predisposition in the Relationship between Cannabis Use and Subcortical Brain Structure

PubMed Central

Pagliaccio, David; Barch, Deanna M.; Bogdan, Ryan; Wood, Phillip K.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Heath, Andrew C.; Agrawal, Arpana

2015-01-01

Importance Prior neuroimaging studies have suggested that alterations in brain structure may be a consequence of cannabis use. Siblings discordant for cannabis use offer an opportunity to use cross-sectional data to disentangle such causal hypotheses from shared effects of genetics and familial environment on brain structure and cannabis use. Objective To determine whether cannabis use is associated with differences in brain structure in a large sample of twins/siblings and to examine sibling pairs discordant for cannabis use to separate potential causal and predispositional factors linking lifetime cannabis exposure to volumetric alterations. Design Cross-sectional diagnostic interview, behavioral, and neuroimaging data. Setting Community sampling and established family registries. Participants Data from 483 participants (22-35 years old), enrolled in the on-going Human Connectome Project; 262 participants reported cannabis exposure, i.e. ever using cannabis in their lifetime. Main Outcome Measures Whole brain, hippocampus, amygdala, ventral striatum, and orbitofrontal cortex volumes were related to lifetime cannabis use (ever use, age of onset, and frequency of use) using linear regressions. Genetic (ρg) and environmental (ρe) correlations between cannabis use and brain volumes were estimated. Linear mixed-models were used to examine volume differences in sex-matched, concordant unexposed (Npairs=71), exposed (Npairs=81), or exposure discordant (Npairs=89) sibling pairs. Results Cannabis exposure was related to smaller left amygdala (~2.3%) and right ventral striatum volumes (~3.5%). These volumetric differences were within the range of normal variation. The relationship between left amygdala volume and cannabis use was largely due to shared genetic factors (ρg=−0.43, p=0.004), while the origin of the association with right ventral striatum volumes was unclear. Importantly, brain volumes did not differ between sex-matched siblings discordant for use. Both the exposed and unexposed siblings in pairs discordant for cannabis exposure showed reduced amygdala volumes relative to members of concordant unexposed pairs. Conclusions and Relevance Differences in amygdala volume in cannabis users are attributable to common predispositional factors, genetic or environmental in origin, with little support for causal influences. Causal influences, in isolation or in conjunction with predispositional factors, may exist for other brain regions (e.g. ventral striatum) or at more severe levels of cannabis involvement and deserve further study. PMID:26308883

Understanding causes of fall and struck-by incidents: What differentiates construction safety in the Arabian Gulf region?

PubMed

Fass, Simon; Yousef, Rami; Liginlal, Divakaran; Vyas, Priyanka

2017-01-01

Rapid growth in the Arabian Gulf region has fueled an explosive pace of construction and a rise in risks of occupational injury. Scarcity of pertinent data, however, makes it hard to determine whether accident characteristics, causal factors and remedial interventions identified elsewhere apply to the Gulf in comparable ways. This difficulty stems from unusual construction sector characteristics, notably a heterogeneous mix of expatriate laborers and firms working without a common language, work culture or labor practices. Does this change the mix of accident types or the ranking of main causes and priority remedies? To answer this question, a sample of 519 incident records was analyzed to determine whether accident types and frequencies are comparable to elsewhere. Site safety experts were then interviewed to determine whether rankings of factors and interventions should be similar. Findings are that types are indeed comparable, but the rankings of factors and interventions may not be. Main factors have to do with worker skills and training, experience, use of safety gear and risk perception. The overarching safety issue, however, is that firms and governments do not have strong incentive to address these factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

PubMed

Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

2017-07-01

The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Urbanism and life satisfaction among the aged.

PubMed

Liang, J; Warfel, B L

1983-01-01

This study examines the impact of urbanism on the causal mechanisms by which life satisfaction is determined. Although the links between the type of community and life satisfaction have been the foci of many studies, the findings are by no means conclusive. Some have found that the rural elderly express greater satisfaction, others have not. Such a discrepancy may be due to (a) the neglect of other variables, (b) a lack of explicit causal specifications, and (c) the failure to distinguish main effects from interaction effects. In this study a causal model that incorporates urbanism as a polytomous variable and its interaction effects has been proposed. The model was evaluated by using four data sets with sample sizes ranging from 961 to 3,996. Urbanism was found to have indirect main effects as well as interaction effects on life satisfaction.

Identifying Causal Variants at Loci with Multiple Signals of Association

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-01-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20–50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. PMID:25104515

Identifying causal variants at loci with multiple signals of association.

PubMed

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kostem, Emrah; Kang, Eun Yong; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2014-10-01

Although genome-wide association studies have successfully identified thousands of risk loci for complex traits, only a handful of the biologically causal variants, responsible for association at these loci, have been successfully identified. Current statistical methods for identifying causal variants at risk loci either use the strength of the association signal in an iterative conditioning framework or estimate probabilities for variants to be causal. A main drawback of existing methods is that they rely on the simplifying assumption of a single causal variant at each risk locus, which is typically invalid at many risk loci. In this work, we propose a new statistical framework that allows for the possibility of an arbitrary number of causal variants when estimating the posterior probability of a variant being causal. A direct benefit of our approach is that we predict a set of variants for each locus that under reasonable assumptions will contain all of the true causal variants with a high confidence level (e.g., 95%) even when the locus contains multiple causal variants. We use simulations to show that our approach provides 20-50% improvement in our ability to identify the causal variants compared to the existing methods at loci harboring multiple causal variants. We validate our approach using empirical data from an expression QTL study of CHI3L2 to identify new causal variants that affect gene expression at this locus. CAVIAR is publicly available online at http://genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar/. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

A Hierarchical Causal Taxonomy of Psychopathology across the Life Span

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Krueger, Robert F.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zald, David H.

2016-01-01

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the three levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. PMID:28004947

New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

2016-01-01

Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of “signed path coefficient Granger causality,” a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an “excitatory” or “inhibitory” influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation. PMID:27833547

Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

2017-12-01

Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ryberg, Karen R.; Blomquist, Joel; Sprague, Lori A.; Sekellick, Andrew J.; Keisman, Jennifer

2018-01-01

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

Diagnostic nomenclature for foetal alcohol spectrum disorders: the continuing challenge of causality.

PubMed

Miller, A R

2013-11-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure is a risk factor for neurologically based cognitive and adaptive disability. Diagnostic nomenclature for prenatally exposed children with cognitive and adaptive disability who lack features for foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) or partial FAS includes the terms alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder (ARND) and foetal alcohol spectrum disorder(s) (FASD). Although these terms are now widely used, this paper argues that both are problematic. ARND is flawed by unjustifiably turning a risk factor into a causal factor and shrouding the result in terminological ambiguity, while FASD is not appropriate as a clinical label, and its use as a proxy for ARND deflects critical attention from the causal inferencing that is integral to diagnosing children with an alcohol-related teratogenic condition. Existing nomenclature is at odds with logical and evidence-based diagnosing and also has implications for interpretation of epidemiological data. Diagnostic nomenclature that is not tightly linked to causal inference is preferable at the present stage of this field's development. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sugar-sweetened soft drinks are associated with poorer cognitive function in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Crichton, Georgina E; Elias, Merrill F; Torres, Rachael V

2016-04-01

The importance of adequate nutrition on cognitive performance is well recognised. Greater intakes of soft drinks are associated with a higher risk for type 2 diabetes, as well as other cardiometabolic diseases. A few studies have specifically examined whether the intake of soft drinks may be related to cognitive function. The aim of this study was to investigate whether soft drink intakes, including both sugar-sweetened and diet beverages, are associated with cognitive function, with adjustment for cardiovascular, lifestyle and dietary factors, and stratified according to type 2 diabetes status. Cross-sectional analyses were undertaken using 803 community-dwelling participants, aged 23-98 years, from the Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study. Cognitive function was measured using an extensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Usual dietary intake of soft drinks was assessed using a FFQ. Stratification by type 2 diabetes indicated that a greater intake of sugar-sweetened soft drinks was significantly associated with poorer performance in visual spatial memory, working memory, scanning and tracking, executive function, the global composite and the Mini-Mental State Examination in diabetic individuals. These relations were not attenuated with statistical control for BMI and other cardiovascular, lifestyle and dietary factors. Diet soft drink intake was unrelated to cognitive performance. Frequent sugar-sweetened soft drink intake was associated with poorer cognitive performance, particularly in individuals with type 2 diabetes, but the underlying causal mechanisms are yet to be determined. Longitudinal studies are needed to clarify these findings and the underlying causal mechanisms.

Confabulation: Developing the 'emotion dysregulation' hypothesis.

PubMed

Turnbull, Oliver H; Salas, Christian E

2017-02-01

Confabulations offer unique opportunities for establishing the neurobiological basis of delusional thinking. As regards causal factors, a review of the confabulation literature suggests that neither amnesia nor executive impairment can be the sole (or perhaps even the primary) cause of all delusional beliefs - though they may act in concert with other factors. A key perspective in the modern literature is that many delusions have an emotionally positive or 'wishful' element, that may serve to modulate or manage emotional experience. Some authors have referred to this perspective as the 'emotion dysregulation' hypothesis. In this article we review the theoretical underpinnings of this approach, and develop the idea by suggesting that the positive aspects of confabulatory states may have a role in perpetuating the imbalance between cognitive control and emotion. We draw on existing evidence from fields outside neuropsychology, to argue for three main causal factors: that positive emotions are related to more global or schematic forms of cognitive processing; that positive emotions influence the accuracy of memory recollection; and that positive emotions make people more susceptible to false memories. These findings suggest that the emotions that we want to feel (or do not want to feel) can influence the way we reconstruct past experiences and generate a sense of self - a proposition that bears on a unified theory of delusional belief states. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

"Head take you": causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica.

PubMed

Arthur, Carlotta M; Whitley, Rob

2015-02-01

Causal attributions are a key factor in explanatory models of illness; however, little research on causal attributions of mental illness has been conducted in developing nations in the Caribbean, including Jamaica. Explanatory models of mental illness may be important in understanding illness experience and be a crucial factor in mental health service seeking and utilization. We explored causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica by conducting 20 focus groups, including 16 community samples, 2 patient samples, and 2 samples of caregivers of patients, with a total of 159 participants. The 5 most commonly endorsed causal attributions of mental illness are discussed: (a) drug-related causes, including ganja (marijuana); (b) biological causes, such as chemical imbalance, familial transmission, and "blood"; (c) psychological causes, including stress and thinking too much; (d) social causes, such as relationship problems and job loss; and (e) spiritual or religious causes, including Obeah. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Causal Factors Influencing Adversity Quotient of Twelfth Grade and Third-Year Vocational Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pangma, Rachapoom; Tayraukham, Sombat; Nuangchalerm, Prasart

2009-01-01

Problem statement: The aim of this research was to study the causal factors influencing students' adversity between twelfth grade and third-year vocational students in Sisaket province, Thailand. Six hundred and seventy two of twelfth grade and 376 third-year vocational students were selected by multi-stage random sampling techniques. Approach:…

Natural and human-induced sinkhole hazards in Saudi Arabia: distribution, investigation, causes and impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youssef, Ahmed M.; Al-Harbi, Hasan M.; Gutiérrez, Francisco; Zabramwi, Yasser A.; Bulkhi, Ali B.; Zahrani, Saeed A.; Bahamil, Alaa M.; Zahrani, Ahmed J.; Otaibi, Zaam A.; El-Haddad, Bosy A.

2016-05-01

Approximately 60 % of the 2,150,000 km2 area of Saudi Arabia is underlain by soluble sediments (carbonate and evaporite rock formations, salt diapirs, sabkha deposits). Despite its hyper-arid climate, a wide variety of recent sinkholes have been reported in numerous areas, involving significant property losses. Human activities, most notably groundwater extraction, have induced unstable conditions on pre-existing cavities. This work provides an overview of the sinkhole hazard in Saudi Arabia, a scarcely explored topic. It identifies the main karst formations and the distribution of the most problematic sinkhole areas, illustrated through several case studies covering the wide spectrum of subsidence mechanisms. Some of the main investigation methods are presented through selected examples, including remote sensing, trenching and geophysics. Based on the available data, the main causal factors are identified and further actions that should be undertaken to better assess and manage the risk are discussed.

Development of VNTR Markers to Assess Genetic Diversity of Mycosphaerella Fijiensis, the Causal Agent of Black Leaf Streak Disease in Bananas (Musa spp.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mycosphaerella fijiensis is the causal agent of black leaf streak (BLS) disease in bananas. This pathogen threatens global banana production as the main export cultivars are highly susceptible. As a consequence, commercial banana plantations must be protected chemically with fungicides; up to 40 app...

Morphological and Molecular Identification of the Causal Agent of Anthracnose Disease of Avocado in Kenya

PubMed Central

Monda, E.; Cheruiyot, R. C.; Mbaka, J.; Alakonya, A.

2018-01-01

Anthracnose disease of avocado contributes to a huge loss of avocado fruits due to postharvest rot in Kenya. The causal agent of this disease has not been clear but presumed to be Colletotrichum gloeosporioides as reported in other regions where avocado is grown. The fungus mainly infects fruits causing symptoms such as small blackish spots, “pepper spots,” and black spots with raised margin which coalesce as infection progresses. Due to economic losses associated with the disease and emerging information of other species of fungi as causal agents of the disease, this study was aimed at identifying causal agent(s) of the disease. A total of 80 fungal isolates were collected from diseased avocado fruits in Murang'a County, the main avocado growing region in Kenya. Forty-six isolates were morphologically identified as Colletotrichum spp. based on their cultural characteristics, mainly whitish, greyish, and creamish colour and cottony/velvety mycelia on the top side of the culture and greyish cream with concentric zonation on the reverse side. Their spores were straight with rounded end and nonseptate. Thirty-four isolates were identified as Pestalotiopsis spp. based on their cultural characteristics: whitish grey mycelium with black fruiting structure on the upper side and greyish black one on the lower side and septate spores with 3-4 septa and 2 or 3 appendages at one end. Further molecular studies using ITS indicated Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, Colletotrichum boninense, and Pestalotiopsis microspora as the causal agents of anthracnose disease in avocado. However, with this being the first report, there is a need to conduct further studies to establish whether there is coinfection or any interaction thereof. PMID:29681943

Morphological and Molecular Identification of the Causal Agent of Anthracnose Disease of Avocado in Kenya.

PubMed

Kimaru, S K; Monda, E; Cheruiyot, R C; Mbaka, J; Alakonya, A

2018-01-01

Anthracnose disease of avocado contributes to a huge loss of avocado fruits due to postharvest rot in Kenya. The causal agent of this disease has not been clear but presumed to be Colletotrichum gloeosporioides as reported in other regions where avocado is grown. The fungus mainly infects fruits causing symptoms such as small blackish spots, "pepper spots," and black spots with raised margin which coalesce as infection progresses. Due to economic losses associated with the disease and emerging information of other species of fungi as causal agents of the disease, this study was aimed at identifying causal agent(s) of the disease. A total of 80 fungal isolates were collected from diseased avocado fruits in Murang'a County, the main avocado growing region in Kenya. Forty-six isolates were morphologically identified as Colletotrichum spp. based on their cultural characteristics, mainly whitish, greyish, and creamish colour and cottony/velvety mycelia on the top side of the culture and greyish cream with concentric zonation on the reverse side. Their spores were straight with rounded end and nonseptate. Thirty-four isolates were identified as Pestalotiopsis spp. based on their cultural characteristics: whitish grey mycelium with black fruiting structure on the upper side and greyish black one on the lower side and septate spores with 3-4 septa and 2 or 3 appendages at one end. Further molecular studies using ITS indicated Colletotrichum gloeosporioides , Colletotrichum boninense , and Pestalotiopsis microspora as the causal agents of anthracnose disease in avocado. However, with this being the first report, there is a need to conduct further studies to establish whether there is coinfection or any interaction thereof.

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Causal Factors in Major Maritime Accidents in the USA and Canada (1996-2006)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, C. W.; Holloway, C, M.

2007-01-01

Accident reports provide important insights into the causes and contributory factors leading to particular adverse events. In contrast, this paper provides an analysis that extends across the findings presented over ten years investigations into maritime accidents by both the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and Canadian Transportation Safety Board (TSB). The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of adverse events. In order to communicate our findings, we introduce J-H graphs as a means of representing the proportion of causes and contributory factors associated with human error, equipment failure and other high level classifications in longitudinal studies of accident reports. Our results suggest the proportion of causal and contributory factors attributable to direct human error may be very much smaller than has been suggested elsewhere in the human factors literature. In contrast, more attention should be paid to wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of maritime operations.

Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility Wenji Mao University of Southern California Institute for Creative...empirically evaluate a computa- tional model of social causality and responsibility against human social judgments. Results from our experimental...developed a general computational model of social cau- sality and responsibility [10, 11] that formalizes the factors people use in reasoning about

Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

On the causal structure between CO2 and global temperature

PubMed Central

Stips, Adolf; Macias, Diego; Coughlan, Clare; Garcia-Gorriz, Elisa; Liang, X. San

2016-01-01

We use a newly developed technique that is based on the information flow concept to investigate the causal structure between the global radiative forcing and the annual global mean surface temperature anomalies (GMTA) since 1850. Our study unambiguously shows one-way causality between the total Greenhouse Gases and GMTA. Specifically, it is confirmed that the former, especially CO2, are the main causal drivers of the recent warming. A significant but smaller information flow comes from aerosol direct and indirect forcing, and on short time periods, volcanic forcings. In contrast the causality contribution from natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic forcing) to the long term trend is not significant. The spatial explicit analysis reveals that the anthropogenic forcing fingerprint is significantly regionally varying in both hemispheres. On paleoclimate time scales, however, the cause-effect direction is reversed: temperature changes cause subsequent CO2/CH4 changes. PMID:26900086

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

2015-05-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

A hierarchical causal taxonomy of psychopathology across the life span.

PubMed

Lahey, Benjamin B; Krueger, Robert F; Rathouz, Paul J; Waldman, Irwin D; Zald, David H

2017-02-01

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences . Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the 3 levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal Relationships between the Psychological Acceptance Process of Athletic Injury and Athletic Rehabilitation Behavior

PubMed Central

Tatsumi, Tomonori; Takenouchi, Takashi

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the causal relationships between the psychological acceptance process of athletic injury and athletic-rehabilitation behavior. [Subjects] One hundred forty-four athletes who had injury experiences participated in this study, and 133 (mean age = 20.21 years, SD = 1.07; mean weeks without playing sports = 7.97 weeks, SD = 11.26) of them provided valid questionnaire responses which were subjected to analysis. [Methods] The subjects were asked to answer our originally designed questionnaire, the Psychosocial Recovery Factor Scale (PSRF-S), and two other pre-existing scales, the Athletic Injury Psychological Acceptance Scale and the Athletic-Rehabilitation Dedication Scale. [Results] The results of factor analysis indicate “emotional stability”, “social competence in the team”, “temporal perspective”, and “communication with the teammates” are factors of the PSRF-S. Lastly, the causal model in which psychosocial recovery factors are mediated by psychological acceptance of athletic injury, and influence on rehabilitation behaviors, was examined using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of SEM indicate that the factors of emotional stability and temporal perspective are mediated by the psychological acceptance of the injury, which positively influences athletic-rehabilitation dedication. [Conclusion] The causal model was confirmed to be valid. PMID:25202190

Causal inference in public health.

PubMed

Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

2013-01-01

Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

Causal Inference in Educational Effectiveness Research: A Comparison of Three Methods to Investigate Effects of Homework on Student Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gustafsson, Jan-Eric

2013-01-01

In educational effectiveness research, it frequently has proven difficult to make credible inferences about cause and effect relations. The article first identifies the main categories of threats to valid causal inference from observational data, and discusses designs and analytic approaches which protect against them. With the use of data from 22…

Assessing Causality in the Relationship between Adolescents' Risky Sexual Online Behavior and Their Perceptions of This Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baumgartner, Susanne E.; Valkenburg, Patti M.; Peter, Jochen

2010-01-01

The main aim of this study was to investigate the causal nature of the relationship between adolescents' risky sexual behavior on the internet and their perceptions of this behavior. Engagement in the following online behaviors was assessed: searching online for someone to talk about sex, searching online for someone to have sex, sending intimate…

Development of a genetic linkage map of Mycosphaerella fijiensis, the causal agent of black leaf streak disease in bananas (Musa spp.) using SSR and DArT markers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mycosphaerella fijiensis is the causal agent of black leaf streak (BLS) disease in bananas. This pathogen threatens global banana production as the main export cultivars are highly susceptible. As a consequence, commercial banana plantations must be protected chemically with fungicides; up to 40 app...

The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melby-Lervag, Monica

2012-01-01

The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

The effects of stress-tension on depression and anxiety symptoms: evidence from a novel twin modelling analysis.

PubMed

Davey, C G; López-Solà, C; Bui, M; Hopper, J L; Pantelis, C; Fontenelle, L F; Harrison, B J

2016-11-01

Negative mood states are composed of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and by a third factor related to stress, tension and irritability. We sought to clarify the nature of the relationships between the factors by studying twin pairs. A total of 503 monozygotic twin pairs completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), an instrument that assesses symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress-tension. We applied a recently developed twin regression methodology - Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding (ICE FALCON) - to test for evidence consistent with the existence of 'causal' influences between the DASS factors. There was evidence consistent with the stress-tension factor having a causal influence on both the depression (p < 0.0001) and anxiety factors (p = 0.001), and for the depression factor having a causal influence on the anxiety factor (p < 0.001). Our findings suggest a critical role for stress-tension in the structure of negative mood states, and that interventions that target it may be particularly effective in reducing depression and anxiety symptoms.

Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

2014-07-01

One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

Does partial Granger causality really eliminate the influence of exogenous inputs and latent variables?

PubMed

Roelstraete, Bjorn; Rosseel, Yves

2012-04-30

Partial Granger causality was introduced by Guo et al. (2008) who showed that it could better eliminate the influence of latent variables and exogenous inputs than conditional G-causality. In the recent literature we can find some reviews and applications of this type of Granger causality (e.g. Smith et al., 2011; Bressler and Seth, 2010; Barrett et al., 2010). These articles apparently do not take into account a serious flaw in the original work on partial G-causality, being the negative F values that were reported and even proven to be plausible. In our opinion, this undermines the credibility of the obtained results and thus the validity of the approach. Our study is aimed to further validate partial G-causality and to find an answer why negative partial Granger causality estimates were reported. Time series were simulated from the same toy model as used in the original paper and partial and conditional causal measures were compared in the presence of confounding variables. Inference was done parametrically and using non-parametric block bootstrapping. We counter the proof that partial Granger F values can be negative, but the main conclusion of the original article remains. In the presence of unknown latent and exogenous influences, it appears that partial G-causality will better eliminate their influence than conditional G-causality, at least when non-parametric inference is used. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Childhood Health Consequences of Maternal Obesity during Pregnancy: A Narrative Review.

PubMed

Gaillard, Romy; Santos, Susana; Duijts, Liesbeth; Felix, Janine F

2016-01-01

Obesity is a major public health problem among women of reproductive age. In a narrative review, we examined the influence of maternal obesity during pregnancy on fetal outcomes and childhood adiposity, cardio-metabolic, respiratory and cognitive-related health outcomes. We discuss results from recent studies, the causality and potential underlying mechanisms of observed associations and challenges for future epidemiological studies. Evidence from observational studies strongly suggests that maternal pre-pregnancy obesity and excessive gestational weight gain are associated with increased risks of fetal pregnancy complications and adverse childhood cardio-metabolic, respiratory and cognitive-related health outcomes. It remains unclear whether these associations are due to intrauterine mechanisms or explained by confounding family-based sociodemographic, lifestyle and genetic factors. The underlying mechanisms have mainly been assessed in animal studies and small human studies, and are yet to be further explored in large human studies. Key Message: Maternal obesity is an important modifiable factor during pregnancy that is associated with a variety of adverse offspring health outcomes. Further studies are needed to explore the causality and underlying mechanisms of the observed associations. Ultimately, preventive strategies focused on reducing maternal obesity and excessive weight gain during pregnancy may reduce common diseases in future generations. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

[Medication errors in a neonatal unit: One of the main adverse events].

PubMed

Esqué Ruiz, M T; Moretones Suñol, M G; Rodríguez Miguélez, J M; Sánchez Ortiz, E; Izco Urroz, M; de Lamo Camino, M; Figueras Aloy, J

2016-04-01

Neonatal units are one of the hospital areas most exposed to the committing of treatment errors. A medication error (ME) is defined as the avoidable incident secondary to drug misuse that causes or may cause harm to the patient. The aim of this paper is to present the incidence of ME (including feeding) reported in our neonatal unit and its characteristics and possible causal factors. A list of the strategies implemented for prevention is presented. An analysis was performed on the ME declared in a neonatal unit. A total of 511 MEs have been reported over a period of seven years in the neonatal unit. The incidence in the critical care unit was 32.2 per 1000 hospital days or 20 per 100 patients, of which 0.22 per 1000 days had serious repercussions. The ME reported were, 39.5% prescribing errors, 68.1% administration errors, 0.6% were adverse drug reactions. Around two-thirds (65.4%) were produced by drugs, with 17% being intercepted. The large majority (89.4%) had no impact on the patient, but 0.6% caused permanent damage or death. Nurses reported 65.4% of MEs. The most commonly implicated causal factor was distraction (59%). Simple corrective action (alerts), and intermediate (protocols, clinical sessions and courses) and complex actions (causal analysis, monograph) were performed. It is essential to determine the current state of ME, in order to establish preventive measures and, together with teamwork and good practices, promote a climate of safety. Copyright © 2015 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Infant acetylcholine, dopamine, and melatonin dysregulation: Neonatal biomarkers and causal factors for ASD and ADHD phenotypes.

PubMed

Hellmer, Kahl; Nyström, Pär

2017-03-01

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and ADHD are common neurodevelopmental disorders that benefit from early intervention but currently suffer from late detection and diagnosis: neurochemical dysregulations are extant already at birth but clinical phenotypes are not distinguishable until preschool age or later. The vast heterogeneity between subjects' phenotypes relates to interaction between multiple unknown factors, making research on factor causality insurmountable. To unlock this situation we pose the hypothesis that atypical pupillary light responses from rods, cones, and the recently discovered ipRGC system reflect early acetylcholine, melatonin, and dopamine dysregulation that are sufficient but not necessary factors for developing ASD and/or ADHD disorders. Current technology allows non-invasive cost-efficient assessment already from the first postnatal month. The benefits of the current proposal are: identification of clinical subgroups based on cause rather than phenotypes; facilitation of research on other causal factors; neonatal prediction of later diagnoses; and guidance for targeted therapeutical intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

PubMed Central

Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

2003-01-01

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

Granger causality revisited

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

2014-01-01

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

Quantum Common Causes and Quantum Causal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, John-Mark A.; Barrett, Jonathan; Horsman, Dominic C.; Lee, Ciarán M.; Spekkens, Robert W.

2017-07-01

Reichenbach's principle asserts that if two observed variables are found to be correlated, then there should be a causal explanation of these correlations. Furthermore, if the explanation is in terms of a common cause, then the conditional probability distribution over the variables given the complete common cause should factorize. The principle is generalized by the formalism of causal models, in which the causal relationships among variables constrain the form of their joint probability distribution. In the quantum case, however, the observed correlations in Bell experiments cannot be explained in the manner Reichenbach's principle would seem to demand. Motivated by this, we introduce a quantum counterpart to the principle. We demonstrate that under the assumption that quantum dynamics is fundamentally unitary, if a quantum channel with input A and outputs B and C is compatible with A being a complete common cause of B and C , then it must factorize in a particular way. Finally, we show how to generalize our quantum version of Reichenbach's principle to a formalism for quantum causal models and provide examples of how the formalism works.

The fuzzy cube and causal efficacy: representation of concomitant mechanisms in stroke.

PubMed

Jobe, Thomas H.; Helgason, Cathy M.

1998-04-01

Twentieth century medical science has embraced nineteenth century Boolean probability theory based upon two-valued Aristotelian logic. With the later addition of bit-based, von Neumann structured computational architectures, an epistemology based on randomness has led to a bivalent epidemiological methodology that dominates medical decision making. In contrast, fuzzy logic, based on twentieth century multi-valued logic, and computational structures that are content addressed and adaptively modified, has advanced a new scientific paradigm for the twenty-first century. Diseases such as stroke involve multiple concomitant causal factors that are difficult to represent using conventional statistical methods. We tested which paradigm best represented this complex multi-causal clinical phenomenon-stroke. We show that the fuzzy logic paradigm better represented clinical complexity in cerebrovascular disease than current probability theory based methodology. We believe this finding is generalizable to all of clinical science since multiple concomitant causal factors are involved in nearly all known pathological processes.

Development and Inter-Rater Reliability of the Liverpool Adverse Drug Reaction Causality Assessment Tool

PubMed Central

Gallagher, Ruairi M.; Kirkham, Jamie J.; Mason, Jennifer R.; Bird, Kim A.; Williamson, Paula R.; Nunn, Anthony J.; Turner, Mark A.; Smyth, Rosalind L.; Pirmohamed, Munir

2011-01-01

Aim To develop and test a new adverse drug reaction (ADR) causality assessment tool (CAT). Methods A comparison between seven assessors of a new CAT, formulated by an expert focus group, compared with the Naranjo CAT in 80 cases from a prospective observational study and 37 published ADR case reports (819 causality assessments in total). Main Outcome Measures Utilisation of causality categories, measure of disagreements, inter-rater reliability (IRR). Results The Liverpool ADR CAT, using 40 cases from an observational study, showed causality categories of 1 unlikely, 62 possible, 92 probable and 125 definite (1, 62, 92, 125) and ‘moderate’ IRR (kappa 0.48), compared to Naranjo (0, 100, 172, 8) with ‘moderate’ IRR (kappa 0.45). In a further 40 cases, the Liverpool tool (0, 66, 81, 133) showed ‘good’ IRR (kappa 0.6) while Naranjo (1, 90, 185, 4) remained ‘moderate’. Conclusion The Liverpool tool assigns the full range of causality categories and shows good IRR. Further assessment by different investigators in different settings is needed to fully assess the utility of this tool. PMID:22194808

Non-Western students' causal reasoning about biologically adaptive changes in humans, other animals and plants: instructional and curricular implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbajiorgu, Ngozika; Anidu, Innocent

2017-06-01

Senior secondary school students (N = 360), 14- to 18-year-olds, from the Igbo culture of eastern Nigeria responded to a questionnaire requiring them to give causal explanations of biologically adaptive changes in humans, other animals and plants. A student subsample (n = 36) was, subsequently, selected for in-depth interviews. Significant differences were found between prompts within the prompt categories, suggesting item feature effects. However, the most coherent pattern was found within the plant category as patterns differed for the mechanistic proximate (MP) reasoning category only. Patterns also differed highly significantly between the prompt categories, with patterns for teleology, MP, mechanistic ultimate and don't know categories similar for plants and other animals but different for the human category. Both urban and rural students recognise commonalities in causality between the three prompt categories, in that their preferences for causal explanations were similar across four reasoning categories. The rural students, however, were more likely than their urban counterparts to give multiple causal explanations in the span of a single response and less likely to attribute causal agency to God. Two factors, religious belief and language, for all the students; and one factor, ecological closeness to nature, for rural students were suspected to have produced these patterns.

The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on environmental behaviour: a review.

PubMed

Burton, Rob J F

2014-03-15

Many agricultural studies have observed a relationship between farmer demographic characteristics and environmental behaviours. These relationships are frequently employed in the construction of models, the identification of farmer types, or as part of more descriptive analyses aimed at understanding farmers' environmental behaviour. However, they have also often been found to be inconsistent or contradictory. Although a considerable body of literature has built up around the subject area, research has a tendency to focus on factors such as the direction, strength and consistency of the relationship - leaving the issue of causality largely to speculation. This review addresses this gap by reviewing literature on 4 key demographic variables: age, experience, education, and gender for hypothesised causal links. Overall the review indicates that the issue of causality is a complex one. Inconsistent relationships can be attributed to the presence of multiple causal pathways, the role of scheme factors in determining which pathway is important, inadequately specified measurements of demographic characteristics, and the treatment of non-linear causalities as linear. In addition, all demographic characteristics were perceived to be influenced (to varying extents) by cultural-historical patterns leading to cohort effects or socialised differences in the relationship with environmental behaviour. The paper concludes that more work is required on the issue of causality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subfertility factors rather than assisted conception factors affect cognitive and behavioural development of 4-year-old singletons.

PubMed

Schendelaar, Pamela; La Bastide-Van Gemert, Sacha; Heineman, Maas Jan; Middelburg, Karin J; Seggers, Jorien; Van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2016-12-01

Research on cognitive and behavioural development of children born after assisted conception is inconsistent. This prospective study aimed to explore underlying causal relationships between ovarian stimulation, in-vitro procedures, subfertility components and child cognition and behaviour. Participants were singletons born to subfertile couples after ovarian stimulation IVF (n = 63), modified natural cycle IVF (n = 53), natural conception (n = 79) and singletons born to fertile couples (reference group) (n = 98). At 4 years, cognition (Kaufmann-ABC-II; total IQ) and behaviour (Child Behavior Checklist; total problem T-score) were assessed. Causal inference search algorithms and structural equation modelling was applied to unravel causal mechanisms. Most children had typical cognitive and behavioural scores. No underlying causal effect was found between ovarian stimulation and the in-vitro procedure and outcome. Direct negative causal effects were found between severity of subfertility (time to pregnancy) and cognition and presence of subfertility and behaviour. Maternal age and maternal education acted as confounders. The study concludes that no causal effects were found between ovarian stimulation or in-vitro procedures and cognition and behaviour in childrenaged 4 years born to subfertile couples. Subfertility, especially severe subfertility, however, was associated with worse cognition and behaviour. Copyright © 2016 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Facts, attitudes, and health reasoning about HIV and AIDS: explaining the education effect on condom use among adults in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Baker, David P; Leon, Juan; Collins, John M

2011-10-01

In contrast to earlier in the HIV/AIDS pandemic, net of other demographic factors, formal education acts as a preventative factor in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite this trend, there has been almost no research on the causal mechanisms behind the widely reported education effect. Consistent with the education effect, structural equation modeling of the influence of education attainment on condom use with Demographic Health Survey data from nine sub-Saharan Africa nations collected between 2003 and 2005 finds that net of control variables, there is a robust, positive influence of education on condom use among sexually risky adults. Information-transfer and attitude change, the two most commonly assumed educational influences on the use of condoms, are tested, and although education attainment increases acquisition of basic facts and the inculcation of positive attitudes about HIV/AIDS, these factors have only weak influence on condom use. Given this, a new hypothesis about education's enhancement of health reasoning is developed from neuro-developmental and decision-making research. Modeling finds that education robustly influences health reasoning ability and this factor mediates a significant proportion of the education effect on condom use. The results raise concern about the enormous effort by NGOs in the region to use mainly fact- and attitude-based educational programs to reduce future HIV infections. Future research on the causal mechanisms behind the association between education and HIV/AIDS prevention should focus how on schooling enhances the cognitive skills needed for health reasoning.

Influence analysis for high-dimensional time series with an application to epileptic seizure onset zone detection

PubMed Central

Flamm, Christoph; Graef, Andreas; Pirker, Susanne; Baumgartner, Christoph; Deistler, Manfred

2013-01-01

Granger causality is a useful concept for studying causal relations in networks. However, numerical problems occur when applying the corresponding methodology to high-dimensional time series showing co-movement, e.g. EEG recordings or economic data. In order to deal with these shortcomings, we propose a novel method for the causal analysis of such multivariate time series based on Granger causality and factor models. We present the theoretical background, successfully assess our methodology with the help of simulated data and show a potential application in EEG analysis of epileptic seizures. PMID:23354014

Critical Factors Analysis for Offshore Software Development Success by Structural Equation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihisa; Tsuji, Hiroshi

In order to analyze the success/failure factors in offshore software development service by the structural equation modeling, this paper proposes to follow two approaches together; domain knowledge based heuristic analysis and factor analysis based rational analysis. The former works for generating and verifying of hypothesis to find factors and causalities. The latter works for verifying factors introduced by theory to build the model without heuristics. Following the proposed combined approaches for the responses from skilled project managers of the questionnaire, this paper found that the vendor property has high causality for the success compared to software property and project property.

A narrative review of alcohol consumption as a risk factor for global burden of disease.

PubMed

Rehm, Jürgen; Imtiaz, Sameer

2016-10-28

Since the original Comparative Risk Assessment (CRA) for alcohol consumption as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study for 1990, there had been regular updates of CRAs for alcohol from the World Health Organization and/or the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. These studies have become more and more refined with respect to establishing causality between dimensions of alcohol consumption and different disease and mortality (cause of death) outcomes, refining risk relations, and improving the methodology for estimating exposure and alcohol-attributable burden. The present review will give an overview on the main results of the CRAs with respect to alcohol consumption as a risk factor, sketch out new trends and developments, and draw implications for future research and policy.

Failure to define low back pain as a disease or an episode renders research on causality unsuitable: results of a systematic review.

PubMed

Ardakani, Emad M; Leboeuf-Yde, Charlotte; Walker, Bruce F

2018-01-01

Causative factors may be different for the very first onset of symptoms of the 'disease' of low back pain (LBP) than for ensuing episodes that occur after a pain-free period. This differentiation hinges on a life-time absence of low back pain at first onset and short-term absence for further episodes. In this systematic review, we explored whether researchers make these distinctions when investigating the causality of LBP. A literature search of PUBMED, CINAHL, and SCOPUS databases was performed from January 2010 until September 2016 using the search terms 'low back pain' or 'back pain' and 'risk factor' or 'caus*' or 'predict*' or 'onset' or 'first-time' or 'inception' or 'incidence'. Two reviewers extracted information on study design, types of episodes of back pain to distinguish the disease of LBP and recurring episodes, and also to determine the definitions of disease- or pain-free periods. Thirty-three articles purporting to study causes of LBP were included. Upon scrutiny, 31 of the 33 articles were unclear as to what type of causality they were studying, that of the 'disease' or the episode, or a mere association with LBP. Only 9 studies used a prospective study design. Five studies appeared to investigate the onset of the disease of LBP, however, only one study truly captured the first incidence of LBP, which was the result of sports injury. Six appeared to study episodes but only one clearly related to the concept of episodes. Therefore, among those 11 studies, nine included both first-time LBP and episodes of LBP. Consequently, 22 studies related to the prevalence of LBP, as they probably included a mixture of first-time, recurring and ongoing episodes without distinction. Recent literature concerning the causality of LBP does not differentiate between the 'disease' of LBP and its recurring episodes mainly due to a lack of a clear definition of absence of LBP at baseline. Therefore, current research is not capable of providing a valid answer on this topic.

Causal essentialism in kinds.

PubMed

Ahn, Woo-kyoung; Taylor, Eric G; Kato, Daniel; Marsh, Jessecae K; Bloom, Paul

2013-06-01

The current study examines causal essentialism, derived from psychological essentialism of concepts. We examine whether people believe that members of a category share some underlying essence that is both necessary and sufficient for category membership and that also causes surface features. The main claim is that causal essentialism is restricted to categories that correspond to our intuitive notions of existing kinds and hence is more attenuated for categories that are based on arbitrary criteria. Experiments 1 and 3 found that people overtly endorse causal essences in nonarbitrary kinds but are less likely to do so for arbitrary categories. Experiments 2 and 4 found that people were more willing to generalize a member's known causal relations (or lack thereof) when dealing with a kind than when dealing with an arbitrary category. These differences between kinds and arbitrary categories were found across various domains-not only for categories of living things, but also for artefacts. These findings have certain real-world implications, including how people make sense of mental disorders that are treated as real kinds.

The dorsomedial prefrontal cortex plays a causal role in mediating in-group advantage in emotion recognition: A TMS study.

PubMed

Gamond, L; Cattaneo, Z

2016-12-01

Consistent evidence suggests that emotional facial expressions are better recognized when the expresser and the perceiver belong to the same social group (in-group advantage). In this study, we used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to investigate the possible causal involvement of the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (dmPFC) and of the right temporo-parietal junction (TPJ), two main nodes of the mentalizing neural network, in mediating the in-group advantage in emotion recognition. Participants performed an emotion discrimination task in a minimal (blue/green) group paradigm. We found that interfering with activity in the dmPFC significantly interfered with the effect of minimal group-membership on emotion recognition, reducing participants' ability to discriminate emotions expressed by in-group members. In turn, rTPJ mainly affected emotion discrimination per se, irrespective of group membership. Overall, our results point to a causal role of the dmPFC in mediating the in-group advantage in emotion recognition, favoring intragroup communication. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

PubMed

Dumalaon-Canaria, Jo Anne; Hutchinson, Amanda D; Prichard, Ivanka; Wilson, Carlene

2014-07-01

The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

Bayes and blickets: Effects of knowledge on causal induction in children and adults

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Sobel, David M.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Gopnik, Alison

2011-01-01

People are adept at inferring novel causal relations, even from only a few observations. Prior knowledge about the probability of encountering causal relations of various types and the nature of the mechanisms relating causes and effects plays a crucial role in these inferences. We test a formal account of how this knowledge can be used and acquired, based on analyzing causal induction as Bayesian inference. Five studies explored the predictions of this account with adults and 4-year-olds, using tasks in which participants learned about the causal properties of a set of objects. The studies varied the two factors that our Bayesian approach predicted should be relevant to causal induction: the prior probability with which causal relations exist, and the assumption of a deterministic or a probabilistic relation between cause and effect. Adults’ judgments (Experiments 1, 2, and 4) were in close correspondence with the quantitative predictions of the model, and children’s judgments (Experiments 3 and 5) agreed qualitatively with this account. PMID:21972897

Human error and commercial aviation accidents: an analysis using the human factors analysis and classification system.

PubMed

Shappell, Scott; Detwiler, Cristy; Holcomb, Kali; Hackworth, Carla; Boquet, Albert; Wiegmann, Douglas A

2007-04-01

The aim of this study was to extend previous examinations of aviation accidents to include specific aircrew, environmental, supervisory, and organizational factors associated with two types of commercial aviation (air carrier and commuter/ on-demand) accidents using the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). HFACS is a theoretically based tool for investigating and analyzing human error associated with accidents and incidents. Previous research has shown that HFACS can be reliably used to identify human factors trends associated with military and general aviation accidents. Using data obtained from both the National Transportation Safety Board and the Federal Aviation Administration, 6 pilot-raters classified aircrew, supervisory, organizational, and environmental causal factors associated with 1020 commercial aviation accidents that occurred over a 13-year period. The majority of accident causal factors were attributed to aircrew and the environment, with decidedly fewer associated with supervisory and organizational causes. Comparisons were made between HFACS causal categories and traditional situational variables such as visual conditions, injury severity, and regional differences. These data will provide support for the continuation, modification, and/or development of interventions aimed at commercial aviation safety. HFACS provides a tool for assessing human factors associated with accidents and incidents.

SU-E-P-07: Retrospective Analysis of Incident Reports at a Radiology Department: Feedback From Incident Reporting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kakinohana, Y; Toita, T; Heianna, J

Purpose: To provide an overview of reported incidents that occurred in a radiology department and to describe the most common causal source of incidents. Methods: Incident reports from the radiology department at the University of the Ryukyus Hospital between 2008 and 2013 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The incident report form contains the following items, causal factors of the incident and desirable corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar incidents. These items allow the institution to investigate/analyze root causes of the incidents and suggest measures to be taken to prevent further, similar incidents. The ‘causal factors of the incident’ itemmore » comprises multiple selections from among 24 selections and includes some synonymous selections. In this study, this item was re-categorized into four causal source types: (i) carelessness, (ii) lack of skill or knowledge, (iii) deficiencies in communication, and (iv) external factors. Results: There were a total of 7490 incident reports over the study period and 276 (3.7%) were identified as originating from the radiology department. The most frequent causal source type was carelessness (62%). The other three types showed similar frequencies (10–14%). The staff members involved in incidents indicate three predominant desirable corrective actions to prevent or decrease the recurrence of similar incidents. These are ‘improvement in communication’ (24%), ‘staff training/education’ (19%), and ‘daily medical procedures’ (22%), and the most frequent was ‘improvement in communication’. Even though the most frequent causal factor was related to carelessness, the most desirable corrective action indicated by the staff members was related to communication. Conclusion: Our finding suggests that the most immediate causes are strongly related to carelessness. However, the most likely underlying causes of incidents would be related to deficiencies in effective communication. At our department, therefore, the primary action to prevent/reduce similar incidents should be ‘communication improvement’.« less

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

PubMed Central

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368

Explaining the Third Reich: Swedish Students' Causal Reasoning about the Nazi Seizure of Power in Germany

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wendell, Joakim

2018-01-01

The topic of this study is how Swedish students aged 15-16 use causal reasoning in history when given a high-stakes task about explaining a historically significant event, the rise of the Nazi regime in Germany. The study is based on student texts from the Swedish national test in history. The student texts are mainly analysed with regards to how…

FPGA design for constrained energy minimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jianwei; Chang, Chein-I.; Cao, Mang

2004-02-01

The Constrained Energy Minimization (CEM) has been widely used for hyperspectral detection and classification. The feasibility of implementing the CEM as a real-time processing algorithm in systolic arrays has been also demonstrated. The main challenge of realizing the CEM in hardware architecture in the computation of the inverse of the data correlation matrix performed in the CEM, which requires a complete set of data samples. In order to cope with this problem, the data correlation matrix must be calculated in a causal manner which only needs data samples up to the sample at the time it is processed. This paper presents a Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) design of such a causal CEM. The main feature of the proposed FPGA design is to use the Coordinate Rotation DIgital Computer (CORDIC) algorithm that can convert a Givens rotation of a vector to a set of shift-add operations. As a result, the CORDIC algorithm can be easily implemented in hardware architecture, therefore in FPGA. Since the computation of the inverse of the data correlction involves a series of Givens rotations, the utility of the CORDIC algorithm allows the causal CEM to perform real-time processing in FPGA. In this paper, an FPGA implementation of the causal CEM will be studied and its detailed architecture will be also described.

Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charakopoulos, A. K.; Katsouli, G. A.; Karakasidis, T. E.

2018-04-01

Understanding the underlying processes and extracting detailed characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean and atmosphere as well as their interaction is of significant interest and has not been well thoroughly established. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of two main additional methodologies for the identification of spatiotemporal underlying dynamic characteristics and patterns among atmospheric and oceanic variables from Seawatch buoys from Aegean and Ionian Sea, provided by the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR). The first approach involves the estimation of cross correlation analysis in an attempt to investigate time-lagged relationships, and further in order to identify the direction of interactions between the variables we performed the Granger causality method. According to the second approach the time series are converted into complex networks and then the main topological network properties such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity and clustering coefficient are evaluated. Our results show that the proposed analysis of complex network analysis of time series can lead to the extraction of hidden spatiotemporal characteristics. Also our findings indicate high level of positive and negative correlations and causalities among variables, both from the same buoy and also between buoys from different stations, which cannot be determined from the use of simple statistical measures.

Factors Relating to Staff Attributions of Control over Challenging Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dilworth, Jennifer A.; Phillips, Neil; Rose, John

2011-01-01

Background: Previous research has suggested that severity of intellectual disability (ID) and topography of behaviour may influence staff causal attributions regarding challenging behaviour. Subsequently, these causal attributions may influence helping behaviours. This study investigated the relationship between attributions of control over…

Etiology of depression comorbidity in combat-related PTSD: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Stander, Valerie A; Thomsen, Cynthia J; Highfill-McRoy, Robyn M

2014-03-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder is often diagnosed with other mental health problems, particularly depression. Although PTSD comorbidity has been associated with more severe and chronic symptomology, relationships among commonly co-occurring disorders are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to review the literature regarding the development of depression comorbid with combat-related PTSD among military personnel. We summarize results of commonly tested hypotheses about the etiology of PTSD and depression comorbidity, including (1) causal hypotheses, (2) common factor hypotheses, and (3) potential confounds. Evidence suggests that PTSD may be a causal risk factor for subsequent depression; however, associations are likely complex, involving bidirectional causality, common risk factors, and common vulnerabilities. The unique nature of PTSD-depression comorbidity in the context of military deployment and combat exposure is emphasized. Implications of our results for clinical practice and future research are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Causal factors of corporate crime in Taiwan: qualitative and quantitative findings.

PubMed

Mon, Wei-Teh

2002-04-01

Street crimes are a primary concern of most criminologists in Taiwan. In recent years, however, crimes committed by corporations have increased greatly in this country. Employing the empirical approach to collect data about causal factors of corporate crime, the research presented in this article is the first systematic empirical study concerning corporate crime in Taiwan. The research sample was selected from a corporation with a criminal record of pollution caused by the release of toxic chemicals into the environment and a corporation with no criminal record. Questionnaire survey and interviews of corporate employees and managers were conducted, and secondary data were collected from official agencies. This research indicated the causal factors of corporate crime as follows: the failure of government regulation, lack of corporate self-regulation, lack of public concern about corporate crime, corporate mechanistic structure, and the low self-control tendency of corporate managers.

Life Strain, Social Control, Social Learning, and Delinquency: The Effects of Gender, Age, and Family SES Among Chinese Adolescents.

PubMed

Bao, Wan-Ning; Haas, Ain; Xie, Yunping

2016-09-01

Very few studies have examined the pathways to delinquency and causal factors for demographic subgroups of adolescents in a different culture. This article explores the effects of gender, age, and family socioeconomic status (SES) in an integrated model of strain, social control, social learning, and delinquency among a sample of Chinese adolescents. ANOVA is used to check for significant differences between categories of demographic groups on the variables in the integrated model, and the differential effects of causal factors in the theoretical path models are examined. Further tests of interaction effects are conducted to compare path coefficients between "high-risk" youths (i.e., male, mid-teen, and low family SES adolescents) and other subgroups. The findings identified similar pathways to delinquency across subgroups and clarified the salience of causal factors for male, mid-teen, and low SES adolescents in a different cultural context. © The Author(s) 2015.

[Host-microbiota crosstalk and cardiovascular diseases].

PubMed

Amar, Jacques

2018-06-13

When analyzing the microbiota-host crosstalk, we have to consider three participants in this dialogue: the gut microbiota, the intestinal barrier and bacterial translocation. Experimental data demonstrate that host microbiota crosstalk plays a causal on the regulation of blood pressure, glucose metabolism and the development of atherosclerosis. Host microbiota crosstalk is associated in humans with main cardiovascular risk factors notably hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Host microbiota crosstalk is associated in humans with the onset of cardiovascular diseases. The Mediterranean diet has proven as proven to be an effective strategy in improving cardiovascular prognosis and in changing gut microbiota. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Determinants for the success of regional ICT ventures: a close examination of South Korea.

PubMed

Park, Eunil; Kim, Ki Joon; Kwon, Sang Jib; Ohm, Jay Y; Del Pobil, Angel P; Yoo, Kyeongsik

2016-01-01

This study identifies the key motivational factors in enhancing economic performance and increasing new job opportunities for information and communication technology ventures (ICTVs) in South Korea and examines their potential causal relationships through structural equation modeling analysis on data collected from over 200 ICTVs located in Daedeok Innopolis. The results indicate that the economic performance of ICTVs is determined mainly by government support, innovation effort, and private equity and support. Government support and innovation effort are also positively associated with new job opportunities. The theoretical, industrial implications of the key findings, and recommendations for the Korean government are discussed.

Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Rehfuess, Eva A; Best, Nicky; Briggs, David J; Joffe, Mike

2013-12-06

Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings.Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce.

Re-Ranking Sequencing Variants in the Post-GWAS Era for Accurate Causal Variant Identification

PubMed Central

Faye, Laura L.; Machiela, Mitchell J.; Kraft, Peter; Bull, Shelley B.; Sun, Lei

2013-01-01

Next generation sequencing has dramatically increased our ability to localize disease-causing variants by providing base-pair level information at costs increasingly feasible for the large sample sizes required to detect complex-trait associations. Yet, identification of causal variants within an established region of association remains a challenge. Counter-intuitively, certain factors that increase power to detect an associated region can decrease power to localize the causal variant. First, combining GWAS with imputation or low coverage sequencing to achieve the large sample sizes required for high power can have the unintended effect of producing differential genotyping error among SNPs. This tends to bias the relative evidence for association toward better genotyped SNPs. Second, re-use of GWAS data for fine-mapping exploits previous findings to ensure genome-wide significance in GWAS-associated regions. However, using GWAS findings to inform fine-mapping analysis can bias evidence away from the causal SNP toward the tag SNP and SNPs in high LD with the tag. Together these factors can reduce power to localize the causal SNP by more than half. Other strategies commonly employed to increase power to detect association, namely increasing sample size and using higher density genotyping arrays, can, in certain common scenarios, actually exacerbate these effects and further decrease power to localize causal variants. We develop a re-ranking procedure that accounts for these adverse effects and substantially improves the accuracy of causal SNP identification, often doubling the probability that the causal SNP is top-ranked. Application to the NCI BPC3 aggressive prostate cancer GWAS with imputation meta-analysis identified a new top SNP at 2 of 3 associated loci and several additional possible causal SNPs at these loci that may have otherwise been overlooked. This method is simple to implement using R scripts provided on the author's website. PMID:23950724

Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Results Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings. Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Conclusions Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce. PMID:24314302

Causal Relation Analysis Tool of the Case Study in the Engineer Ethics Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yoshio; Morita, Keisuke; Yasui, Mitsukuni; Tanada, Ichirou; Fujiki, Hiroyuki; Aoyagi, Manabu

In engineering ethics education, the virtual experiencing of dilemmas is essential. Learning through the case study method is a particularly effective means. Many case studies are, however, difficult to deal with because they often include many complex causal relationships and social factors. It would thus be convenient if there were a tool that could analyze the factors of a case example and organize them into a hierarchical structure to get a better understanding of the whole picture. The tool that was developed applies a cause-and-effect matrix and simple graph theory. It analyzes the causal relationship between facts in a hierarchical structure and organizes complex phenomena. The effectiveness of this tool is shown by presenting an actual example.

Evaluating the impact of implementation factors on family-based prevention programming: methods for strengthening causal inference.

PubMed

Crowley, D Max; Coffman, Donna L; Feinberg, Mark E; Greenberg, Mark T; Spoth, Richard L

2014-04-01

Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then, we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large-scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program.

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Statistical Evidence Suggests that Inattention Drives Hyperactivity/Impulsivity in Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Sokolova, Elena; Groot, Perry; Claassen, Tom; van Hulzen, Kimm J.; Glennon, Jeffrey C.; Franke, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background Numerous factor analytic studies consistently support a distinction between two symptom domains of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Both dimensions show high internal consistency and moderate to strong correlations with each other. However, it is not clear what drives this strong correlation. The aim of this paper is to address this issue. Method We applied a sophisticated approach for causal discovery on three independent data sets of scores of the two ADHD dimensions in NeuroIMAGE (total N = 675), ADHD-200 (N = 245), and IMpACT (N = 164), assessed by different raters and instruments, and further used information on gender or a genetic risk haplotype. Results In all data sets we found strong statistical evidence for the same pattern: the clear dependence between hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom level and an established genetic factor (either gender or risk haplotype) vanishes when one conditions upon inattention symptom level. Under reasonable assumptions, e.g., that phenotypes do not cause genotypes, a causal model that is consistent with this pattern contains a causal path from inattention to hyperactivity/impulsivity. Conclusions The robust dependency cancellation observed in three different data sets suggests that inattention is a driving factor for hyperactivity/impulsivity. This causal hypothesis can be further validated in intervention studies. Our model suggests that interventions that affect inattention will also have an effect on the level of hyperactivity/impulsivity. On the other hand, interventions that affect hyperactivity/impulsivity would not change the level of inattention. This causal model may explain earlier findings on heritable factors causing ADHD reported in the study of twins with learning difficulties. PMID:27768717

Evaluating WAIS-IV structure through a different psychometric lens: structural causal model discovery as an alternative to confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

van Dijk, Marjolein J A M; Claassen, Tom; Suwartono, Christiany; van der Veld, William M; van der Heijden, Paul T; Hendriks, Marc P H

Since the publication of the WAIS-IV in the U.S. in 2008, efforts have been made to explore the structural validity by applying factor analysis to various samples. This study aims to achieve a more fine-grained understanding of the structure of the Dutch language version of the WAIS-IV (WAIS-IV-NL) by applying an alternative analysis based on causal modeling in addition to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Bayesian Constraint-based Causal Discovery (BCCD) algorithm learns underlying network structures directly from data and assesses more complex structures than is possible with factor analysis. WAIS-IV-NL profiles of two clinical samples of 202 patients (i.e. patients with temporal lobe epilepsy and a mixed psychiatric outpatient group) were analyzed and contrasted with a matched control group (N = 202) selected from the Dutch standardization sample of the WAIS-IV-NL to investigate internal structure by means of CFA and BCCD. With CFA, the four-factor structure as proposed by Wechsler demonstrates acceptable fit in all three subsamples. However, BCCD revealed three consistent clusters (verbal comprehension, visual processing, and processing speed) in all three subsamples. The combination of Arithmetic and Digit Span as a coherent working memory factor could not be verified, and Matrix Reasoning appeared to be isolated. With BCCD, some discrepancies from the proposed four-factor structure are exemplified. Furthermore, these results fit CHC theory of intelligence more clearly. Consistent clustering patterns indicate these results are robust. The structural causal discovery approach may be helpful in better interpreting existing tests, the development of new tests, and aid in diagnostic instruments.

An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

PubMed Central

Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

2016-01-01

Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

Causal Attributions for Success and Failure at University Examinations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, J. G.; Feather, N. T.

1973-01-01

Male and female undergraduates rated their ability, amount of preparation, task difficulty, and their initial confidence (expectation) before they began an important examination. Subsequently they attributed causality for the examination outcome by rating the importance of factors involving ability, preparation, task difficulty, and luck as…

Education and myopia: assessing the direction of causality by mendelian randomisation

PubMed Central

Mountjoy, Edward; Davies, Neil M; Plotnikov, Denis; Smith, George Davey; Rodriguez, Santiago; Williams, Cathy E; Guggenheim, Jeremy A

2018-01-01

Abstract Objectives To determine whether more years spent in education is a causal risk factor for myopia, or whether myopia is a causal risk factor for more years in education. Design Bidirectional, two sample mendelian randomisation study. Setting Publically available genetic data from two consortiums applied to a large, independent population cohort. Genetic variants used as proxies for myopia and years of education were derived from two large genome wide association studies: 23andMe and Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC), respectively. Participants 67 798 men and women from England, Scotland, and Wales in the UK Biobank cohort with available information for years of completed education and refractive error. Main outcome measures Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed in two directions: the first exposure was the genetic predisposition to myopia, measured with 44 genetic variants strongly associated with myopia in 23andMe, and the outcome was years in education; and the second exposure was the genetic predisposition to higher levels of education, measured with 69 genetic variants from SSGAC, and the outcome was refractive error. Results Conventional regression analyses of the observational data suggested that every additional year of education was associated with a more myopic refractive error of −0.18 dioptres/y (95% confidence interval −0.19 to −0.17; P<2e-16). Mendelian randomisation analyses suggested the true causal effect was even stronger: −0.27 dioptres/y (−0.37 to −0.17; P=4e-8). By contrast, there was little evidence to suggest myopia affected education (years in education per dioptre of refractive error −0.008 y/dioptre, 95% confidence interval −0.041 to 0.025, P=0.6). Thus, the cumulative effect of more years in education on refractive error means that a university graduate from the United Kingdom with 17 years of education would, on average, be at least −1 dioptre more myopic than someone who left school at age 16 (with 12 years of education). Myopia of this magnitude would be sufficient to necessitate the use of glasses for driving. Sensitivity analyses showed minimal evidence for genetic confounding that could have biased the causal effect estimates. Conclusions This study shows that exposure to more years in education contributes to the rising prevalence of myopia. Increasing the length of time spent in education may inadvertently increase the prevalence of myopia and potential future visual disability. PMID:29875094

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J.; Lee, J. E.; Gentine, P.; Berry, J. A.; Konings, A. G.

2015-12-01

hotosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe. References:Beer, C., M. Reichstein, E. Tomelleri, P. Ciais, M. Jung, N. Carvalhais, C. Ro¨denbeck, M. Altaf Arain, D. Baldocchi, G. B. Bonan, A. Bondeau, A. Cescatti, G. Lasslop, A. Lindroth, M. Lomas, S. Luyssaert, H. Margolis, K. W. Oleson, O. Roupsard, E. Veenendaal, N. Viovy, C. Williams, I. Woodward, and D. Papale, 2010: Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate. doi: 10.1126/science.1184984. Running, S.W., Nemani, R. R., Heinsch, F. A., Zhao, M., Reeves, M., Hashimoto, H., 2004. A Continuous Satellite Derived Measure of Global Terrestrial Primary Production. BioScience 54(6), 547-560.

Preeminence of Staphylococcus aureus in infective endocarditis: a 1-year population-based survey.

PubMed

Selton-Suty, Christine; Célard, Marie; Le Moing, Vincent; Doco-Lecompte, Thanh; Chirouze, Catherine; Iung, Bernard; Strady, Christophe; Revest, Matthieu; Vandenesch, François; Bouvet, Anne; Delahaye, François; Alla, François; Duval, Xavier; Hoen, Bruno

2012-05-01

Observational studies showed that the profile of infective endocarditis (IE) significantly changed over the past decades. However, most studies involved referral centers. We conducted a population-based study to control for this referral bias. The objective was to update the description of characteristics of IE in France and to compare the profile of community-acquired versus healthcare-associated IE. A prospective population-based observational study conducted in all medical facilities from 7 French regions (32% of French individuals aged ≥18 years) identified 497 adults with Duke-Li-definite IE who were first admitted to the hospital in 2008. Main measures included age-standardized and sex-standardized incidence of IE and multivariate Cox regression analysis for risk factors of in-hospital death. The age-standardized and sex-standardized annual incidence of IE was 33.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 30.8-36.9) cases per million inhabitants. The incidence was highest in men aged 75-79 years. A majority of patients had no previously known heart disease. Staphylococci were the most common causal agents, accounting for 36.2% of cases (Staphylococcus aureus, 26.6%; coagulase-negative staphylococci, 9.7%). Healthcare-associated IE represented 26.7% of all cases and exhibited a clinical pattern significantly different from that of community-acquired IE. S. aureus as the causal agent of IE was the most important factor associated with in-hospital death in community-acquired IE (hazard ratio [HR], 2.82 [95% CI, 1.72-4.61]) and the single factor in healthcare-associated IE (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.33-4.85]). S. aureus became both the leading cause and the most important prognostic factor of IE, and healthcare-associated IE appeared as a major subgroup of the disease.

Inflammatory pathways in cervical cancer - the UCT contribution.

PubMed

Sales, Kurt Jason; Katz, Arieh Anthony

2012-03-23

Cervical cancer is the leading gynaecological malignancy in Southern Africa. The main causal factor for development of the disease is infection of the cervix with human papillomavirus. It is a multi-step disease with several contributing co-factors including multiple sexual partners, a compromised immune system and cervical inflammation caused by infections with Chlamydia trachomatis or Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Inflammation involves extensive tissue remodelling events which are orchestrated by complex networks of cytokines, chemokines and bio-active lipids working across multiple cellular compartments to maintain tissue homeostasis. Many pathological disorders or diseases, including cervical cancer, are characterised by the exacerbated activation and maintenance of inflammatory pathways. In this review we highlight our findings pertaining to activation of inflammatory pathways in cervical cancers, addressing their potential role in pathological changes of the cervix and the significance of these findings for intervention strategies.

Meat and colo-rectal cancer.

PubMed

Hill, M J

1999-05-01

In early epidemiological studies of diet and cancer the stress was on the search for causal factors. Population (ecological) studies tended to show a strong correlation between meat intake, particularly red meat, and the risk of colo-rectal cancer. They also tended to show meat to be strongly inversely correlated with cancers of the stomach and oesophagus and liver. Early case-control studies tended to support the postulated role for red meat in colo-rectal carcinogenesis, although more recent case-control studies, particularly those from Europe, have tended to show no relationship. The cohort studies in general failed to detect any relationship between meat intake and colo-rectal cancer risk. The available evidence points to the intake of protective factors such as vegetables and whole-grain cereals being the main determinants of colo-rectal cancer risk, with meat intake only coincidentally related.

Principal Stratification — a Goal or a Tool?

PubMed Central

Pearl, Judea

2011-01-01

Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with post-randomization factors in randomized trials. Here, we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest. PMID:21556288

Causal and causally separable processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

2016-09-01

The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and outcomes for each party, these correlations form a polytope whose facets define causal inequalities. The case of quantum correlations in this paradigm is captured by the process matrix formalism. We investigate the link between causality and the closely related notion of causal separability of quantum processes, which we here define rigorously in analogy with the link between Bell locality and separability of quantum states. We show that causality and causal separability are not equivalent in general by giving an example of a physically admissible tripartite quantum process that is causal but not causally separable. We also show that there are causally separable quantum processes that become non-causal if extended by supplying the parties with entangled ancillas. This motivates the concepts of extensibly causal and extensibly causally separable (ECS) processes, for which the respective property remains invariant under extension. We characterize the class of ECS quantum processes in the tripartite case via simple conditions on the form of the process matrix. We show that the processes realizable by classically controlled quantum circuits are ECS and conjecture that the reverse also holds.

How contrast situations affect the assignment of causality in symmetric physical settings.

PubMed

Beller, Sieghard; Bender, Andrea

2014-01-01

In determining the prime cause of a physical event, people often weight one of two entities in a symmetric physical relation as more important for bringing about the causal effect than the other. In a broad survey (Bender and Beller, 2011), we documented such weighting effects for different kinds of physical events and found that their direction and strength depended on a variety of factors. Here, we focus on one of those: adding a contrast situation that-while being formally irrelevant-foregrounds one of the factors and thus frames the task in a specific way. In two experiments, we generalize and validate our previous findings by using different stimulus material (in Experiment 1), by applying a different response format to elicit causal assignments, an analog rating scale instead of a forced-choice decision (in Experiment 2), and by eliciting explanations for the physical events in question (in both Experiments). The results generally confirm the contrast effects for both response formats; however, the effects were more pronounced with the force-choice format than with the rating format. People tended to refer to the given contrast in their explanations, which validates our manipulation. Finally, people's causal assignments are reflected in the type of explanation given in that contrast and property explanations were associated with biased causal assignments, whereas relational explanations were associated with unbiased assignments. In the discussion, we pick up the normative questions of whether or not these contrast effects constitute a bias in causal reasoning.

Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation.

PubMed

Vineis, Paolo; Illari, Phyllis; Russo, Federica

2017-01-01

In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research) has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a) causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing-notably, the "sufficient-component-cause framework" and the "mark transmission" approach; (b) new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the "branched model" in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c) the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of "signals" and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of "cancer causes". We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called "evidential pluralism". According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both "evidence of difference-making" (e.g. associations) and on "evidence of underlying biological mechanisms". We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission , which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social-are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Steven R.

2010-01-01

Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

Mendelian randomisation in type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Frayling, Timothy M; Stoneman, Charli E

2018-06-20

Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension are associated with anthropometric and biomarker traits, including waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose and insulin levels. Clinical trials, for example of weight-loss interventions, show these factors are causal, but lifelong impact of subtle changes in body mass index and body fat distribution are less clear. The use of human genetics can quantify the causal effects of long-term exposure to subtle changes of modifiable risk factors. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses human genetic variants associated with the risk factor to quantify the relationship between risk factor and disease outcome. The last two years have seen an increase in the number of MR studies investigating the relationship between anthropometric traits and metabolic diseases. This review provides an overview of these recent MR studies in relation to type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension. MR provides evidence for causal associations of waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose levels with type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who deserves health care? The effects of causal attributions and group cues on public attitudes about responsibility for health care costs.

PubMed

Gollust, Sarah E; Lynch, Julia

2011-12-01

This research investigates the impact of cues about ascriptive group characteristics (race, class, gender) and the causes of ill health (health behaviors, inborn biological traits, social systemic factors) on beliefs about who deserves society's help in paying for the costs of medical treatment. Drawing on data from three original vignette experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey of American adults, we find that respondents are reluctant to blame or deny societal support in response to explicit cues about racial attributes--but equally explicit cues about the causal impact of individual behaviors on health have large effects on expressed attitudes. Across all three experiments, a focus on individual behavioral causes of illness is associated with increased support for individual responsibility for health care costs and lower support for government-financed health insurance. Beliefs about social groups and causal attributions are, however, tightly intertwined. We find that when groups suffering ill health are defined in racial, class, or gender terms, Americans differ in their attribution of health disparities to individual behaviors versus biological or systemic factors. Because causal attributions also affect health policy opinions, varying patterns of causal attribution may reinforce group stereotypes and undermine support for universal access to health care.

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women's participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis.

PubMed

Yourkavitch, Jennifer; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Flax, Valerie L; Okello, Elialilia S; Kadzandira, John; Katahoire, Anne Ruhweza; Munthali, Alister C; Thomas, James C

2018-01-01

Retention in care remains an important issue for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs according to WHO guidelines, formerly called the "Option B+" approach. The objective of this study was to examine how poverty, gender, and health system factors interact to influence women's participation in PMTCT services. We used qualitative research, literature, and hypothesized variable connections to diagram causes and effects in causal loop models. We found that many factors, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, service design and quality, stigma, disclosure, spouse/partner influence, decision-making autonomy, and knowledge about PMTCT, influence psychosocial health, which in turn affects women's participation in PMTCT services. Thus, interventions to improve psychosocial health need to address many factors to be successful. We also found that the design of PMTCT services, a modifiable factor, is important because it affects several other factors. We identified 66 feedback loops that may contribute to policy resistance-that is, a policy's failure to have its intended effect. Our findings point to the need for a multipronged intervention to encourage women's continued participation in PMTCT services and for longitudinal research to quantify and test our causal loop model.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Evaluating the Impact of Implementation Factors on Family-Based Prevention Programming: Methods for Strengthening Causal Inference

PubMed Central

Crowley, D. Max; Coffman, Donna L.; Feinberg, Mark; Greenberg, Mark; Spoth, Richard

2013-01-01

Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program. PMID:23430578

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Investigating Causality Between Interacting Brain Areas with Multivariate Autoregressive Models of MEG Sensor Data

PubMed Central

Michalareas, George; Schoffelen, Jan-Mathijs; Paterson, Gavin; Gross, Joachim

2013-01-01

Abstract In this work, we investigate the feasibility to estimating causal interactions between brain regions based on multivariate autoregressive models (MAR models) fitted to magnetoencephalographic (MEG) sensor measurements. We first demonstrate the theoretical feasibility of estimating source level causal interactions after projection of the sensor-level model coefficients onto the locations of the neural sources. Next, we show with simulated MEG data that causality, as measured by partial directed coherence (PDC), can be correctly reconstructed if the locations of the interacting brain areas are known. We further demonstrate, if a very large number of brain voxels is considered as potential activation sources, that PDC as a measure to reconstruct causal interactions is less accurate. In such case the MAR model coefficients alone contain meaningful causality information. The proposed method overcomes the problems of model nonrobustness and large computation times encountered during causality analysis by existing methods. These methods first project MEG sensor time-series onto a large number of brain locations after which the MAR model is built on this large number of source-level time-series. Instead, through this work, we demonstrate that by building the MAR model on the sensor-level and then projecting only the MAR coefficients in source space, the true casual pathways are recovered even when a very large number of locations are considered as sources. The main contribution of this work is that by this methodology entire brain causality maps can be efficiently derived without any a priori selection of regions of interest. Hum Brain Mapp, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:22328419

"Fundamental Causes" of Social Inequalities in Mortality: A Test of the Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelan, Jo C.; Link, Bruce G.; Diez-Roux, Ana; Kawachi, Ichiro; Levin, Bruce

2004-01-01

Medicine and epidemiology currently dominate the study of the strong association between socioeconomic status and mortality. Socioeconomic status typically is viewed as a causally irrelevant "confounding variable" or as a less critical variable marking only the beginning of a causal chain in which intervening risk factors are given prominence. Yet…

Can Being Scared Cause Tummy Aches? Naive Theories, Ambiguous Evidence, and Preschoolers' Causal Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Laura E.; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2007-01-01

Causal learning requires integrating constraints provided by domain-specific theories with domain-general statistical learning. In order to investigate the interaction between these factors, the authors presented preschoolers with stories pitting their existing theories against statistical evidence. Each child heard 2 stories in which 2 candidate…

Prediction versus aetiology: common pitfalls and how to avoid them.

PubMed

van Diepen, Merel; Ramspek, Chava L; Jager, Kitty J; Zoccali, Carmine; Dekker, Friedo W

2017-04-01

Prediction research is a distinct field of epidemiologic research, which should be clearly separated from aetiological research. Both prediction and aetiology make use of multivariable modelling, but the underlying research aim and interpretation of results are very different. Aetiology aims at uncovering the causal effect of a specific risk factor on an outcome, adjusting for confounding factors that are selected based on pre-existing knowledge of causal relations. In contrast, prediction aims at accurately predicting the risk of an outcome using multiple predictors collectively, where the final prediction model is usually based on statistically significant, but not necessarily causal, associations in the data at hand.In both scientific and clinical practice, however, the two are often confused, resulting in poor-quality publications with limited interpretability and applicability. A major problem is the frequently encountered aetiological interpretation of prediction results, where individual variables in a prediction model are attributed causal meaning. This article stresses the differences in use and interpretation of aetiological and prediction studies, and gives examples of common pitfalls. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and their relationship with awareness of the condition and social distance.

PubMed

Scior, Katrina; Furnham, Adrian

2016-09-30

Evidence on mental illness stigma abounds yet little is known about public perceptions of intellectual disability. This study examined causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and how these relate to awareness of the condition and social distance. UK lay people aged 16+(N=1752), in response to vignettes depicting intellectual disability and schizophrenia, noted their interpretation of the difficulties, and rated their agreement with 22 causal and four social distance items. They were most likely to endorse environmental causes for intellectual disability, and biomedical factors, trauma and early disadvantage for schizophrenia. Accurate identification of both vignettes was associated with stronger endorsement of biomedical causes, alongside weaker endorsement of adversity, environmental and supernatural causes. Biomedical causal beliefs and social distance were negatively correlated for intellectual disability, but not for schizophrenia. Causal beliefs mediated the relationship between identification of the condition and social distance for both conditions. While all four types of causal beliefs acted as mediators for intellectual disability, for schizophrenia only supernatural causal beliefs did. Educating the public and promoting certain causal beliefs may be of benefit in tackling intellectual disability stigma, but for schizophrenia, other than tackling supernatural attributions, may be of little benefit in reducing stigma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The good, the bad, and the timely: how temporal order and moral judgment influence causal selection

PubMed Central

Reuter, Kevin; Kirfel, Lara; van Riel, Raphael; Barlassina, Luca

2014-01-01

Causal selection is the cognitive process through which one or more elements in a complex causal structure are singled out as actual causes of a certain effect. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which we investigated the role of moral and temporal factors in causal selection. Our results are as follows. First, when presented with a temporal chain in which two human agents perform the same action one after the other, subjects tend to judge the later agent to be the actual cause. Second, the impact of temporal location on causal selection is almost canceled out if the later agent did not violate a norm while the former did. We argue that this is due to the impact that judgments of norm violation have on causal selection—even if the violated norm has nothing to do with the obtaining effect. Third, moral judgments about the effect influence causal selection even in the case in which agents could not have foreseen the effect and did not intend to bring it about. We discuss our findings in connection to recent theories of the role of moral judgment in causal reasoning, on the one hand, and to probabilistic models of temporal location, on the other. PMID:25477851

Latent structure modeling underlying theophylline tablet formulations using a Bayesian network based on a self-organizing map clustering.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Obata, Yasuko; Takayama, Kozo

2015-01-01

The "quality by design" concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires the establishment of a science-based rationale and design space. In this article, we integrate thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation, Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) and a Bayesian network (BN) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline tablets were prepared using a standard formulation. We measured the tensile strength and disintegration time as response variables and the compressibility, cohesion and dispersibility of the pretableting blend as latent variables. We predicted these variables quantitatively using nonlinear TPS, generated a large amount of data on pretableting blends and tablets and clustered these data into several clusters using a SOM. Our results show that we are able to predict the experimental values of the latent and response variables with a high degree of accuracy and are able to classify the tablet data into several distinct clusters. In addition, to visualize the latent structure between the causal and latent factors and the response variables, we applied a BN method to the SOM clustering results. We found that despite having inserted latent variables between the causal factors and response variables, their relation is equivalent to the results for the SOM clustering, and thus we are able to explain the underlying latent structure. Consequently, this technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline tablet formulation.

The temporal stability and predictive validity of pupils' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour.

PubMed

Lambert, Nathan; Miller, Andy

2010-12-01

Recent studies have investigated the causal attributions for difficult pupil behaviour made by teachers, pupils, and parents but none have investigated the temporal stability or predictive validity of these attributions. This study examines the causal attributions made for difficult classroom behaviour by students on two occasions 30 months apart. The longitudinal stability of these attributions is considered as is the predictive validity of the first set of attributions in relation to teachers' later judgments about individual students' behaviour. Two hundred and seventeen secondary school age pupils (114 males, 103 females) provided data on the two occasions. Teachers also rated each student's behaviour at the two times. A questionnaire listing 63 possible causes of classroom misbehaviour was delivered to pupils firstly when they were in Year 7 (aged 11-12) and then again, 30 months later. Responses were analysed through exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Additionally, teachers were asked to rate the standard of behaviour of each of the students on the two occasions. EFA of the Years 7 and 10 data indicated that pupils' attributions yielded broadly similar five-factor models with the perceived relative importance of these factors remaining the same. Analysis also revealed a predictive relationship between pupils' attributions regarding the factor named culture of misbehaviour in Year 7, and teachers' judgments of their standard of behaviour in Year 10. The present study suggests that young adolescents' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour remain stable over time and are predictive of teachers' later judgments about their behaviour.

Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

PubMed

Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2010-08-01

During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. PMID:25749559

Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science.

PubMed

Lloyd, Elisabeth A

2015-02-01

I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independently-supported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists' discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The role of awareness campaigns in the improvement of separate collection rates of municipal waste among university students: A Causal Chain Approach.

PubMed

Saladié, Òscar; Santos-Lacueva, Raquel

2016-02-01

One of the main objectives of municipal waste management policies is to improve separate collection, both quantitatively and qualitatively. Several factors influence people behavior to recycling and, consequently, they play an important role to achieve the goals proposed in the management policies. People can improve separate collection rates because of a wide range of causes with different weight. Here, we have determined the uplift in probability to improve separate collection of municipal waste created by the awareness campaigns among 806 undergraduate students at Universitat Rovira i Virgili (Catalonia) by means of the Causal Chain Approach, a probabilistic method. A 73.2% state having improved separate collection in recent years and the most of them (75.4%) remember some awareness campaign. The results show the uplift in probability to improve separate collection attributable to the awareness campaigns is 17.9%. They should be taken into account by policy makers in charge of municipal waste management. Nevertheless, it must be assumed an awareness campaign will never be sufficient to achieve the objectives defined in municipal waste management programmes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simulating vegetation cover dynamics with regards to long-term climatic variations in sub-arctic landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haraldsson, Hörður V.; Ólafsdóttir, Rannveig

2003-09-01

Iceland is facing severe land degradation in many parts of the country. This study aims to increase the understanding of the complex interactions and interconnectivity between the critical factors that help maintain the land degradation processes in sub-arctic environments. A holistic approach in the form of a causal loop diagram (CLD) is applied for diagnosing the influencing factors. To further study the relationship between vegetation cover and its degradation, a dynamic model that uses a long-term temperature data as the main indicator function is constructed to simulate potential vegetation cover during the Holocene. The results depict an oscillating vegetation cover. Gradual degradation in potential vegetation cover begins ca. 3000 BP and accelerates greatly after ca. 2500 BP. From the time of the Norse settlement in the latter halve of the 9th century to present time, the simulated vegetation cover retreats ca. 25% in relation to climatic cooling.

Sedentary lifestyle in individuals with hypertension.

PubMed

Martins, Larissa Castelo Guedes; Lopes, Marcos Venícios de Oliveira; Guedes, Nirla Gomes; Nunes, Marília Mendes; Diniz, Camila Maciel; Carvalho, Priscilla Magalhães de Oliveira

2015-01-01

to identify the prevalence of nursing diagnosis Sedentary lifestyle (SL) and to analyze its association with clinical indicators (CI) and related factors (RF) in patients with hypertension. cross-sectional study with 285 patients with hypertension at a reference center for outpatient care in Northeastern Brazil. To collect data it was used an instrument based on operational defi nitions of the CI and RF previously validated. Four nurses rated SL as present or absent. To evaluate the association between CI and RF with the presence of SL it was applied the chi-square test. The prevalence ratio and confi dence interval was calculated to verify the magnitude of the effect between RF and SL. SL was identifi ed in 55.8% of the sample. Five IC and six RF showed a signifi cant association with SL. the study identifi es main indicators for inference of SL as well as their possible causal factors among people with hypertension.

Abilities of 4-7 Years Old Children to Provide Independent Explanations and Generalisations of Causality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daugirdiene, Ausra; Petrulyte, Aiste; Brandisauskiene, Agne

2018-01-01

The understanding and generalisation of causality are important thinking abilities, as they form the basis for a person's activity. Researchers exploring these abilities do not have a unified opinion regarding the age of children when they develop causative understanding and its determinant factors (e.g. age, prior knowledge, the content of a…

Development and Coherence of Beliefs Regarding Disease Causality and Prevention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigelman, Carol K.

2014-01-01

Guided by a naïve theories perspective on the development of thinking about disease, this study of 188 children aged 6 to 18 examined knowledge of HIV/AIDS causality and prevention using parallel measures derived from open-ended and structured interviews. Knowledge of both risk factors and prevention rules, as well as conceptual understanding of…

What Does Quantum Physics Have to Do with Behavior Disorders?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center, David B.

This paper argues that human agency as a causal factor in behavior must be considered in any model of behavior and behavior disorders. Since human agency is historically tied to the issue of consciousness, to argue that consciousness plays a causal role in behavior requires a plausible explanation of consciousness. This paper proposes that…

University Students' Causal Conceptions about Social Mobility: Diverging Pathways for Believers in Personal Merit and Luck

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2013-01-01

Many college students hold ambitious goals for upward social mobility via post-college careers. However, in the current economic recession such optimistic expectations are not a given. The present study examines how college students' current social status and beliefs in causal factors for socioeconomic status (SES) attainment lead to diverging…

Effects of Age, Gender, and Causality on Perceptions of Persons with Mental Retardation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Panek, Paul E.; Jungers, Melissa K.

2008-01-01

The present study examined the effects of age, gender, and causality on the perceptions of persons with mental retardation. Participants rated individuals with mental retardation using a semantic differential scale with three factors: activity, evaluation, and potency. Target individuals in each scenario varied on the variables of age (8, 20, 45),…

A Causal Model of Career Development and Quality of Life of College Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chun, Jina

2017-01-01

Researchers have assumed that social cognitive factors play significant roles in the career development of transition youth and young adults with disabilities and those without disabilities. However, research on the influence of the career decision-making process as a primary causal agent in one's psychosocial outcomes such as perceived level of…

Feedback Both Helps and Hinders Learning: The Causal Role of Prior Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fyfe, Emily R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2016-01-01

Feedback can be a powerful learning tool, but its effects vary widely. Research has suggested that learners' prior knowledge may moderate the effects of feedback; however, no causal link has been established. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned elementary school children (N = 108) to a condition based on a crossing of 2 factors: induced strategy…

Detecting switching and intermittent causalities in time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanin, Massimiliano; Papo, David

2017-04-01

During the last decade, complex network representations have emerged as a powerful instrument for describing the cross-talk between different brain regions both at rest and as subjects are carrying out cognitive tasks, in healthy brains and neurological pathologies. The transient nature of such cross-talk has nevertheless by and large been neglected, mainly due to the inherent limitations of some metrics, e.g., causality ones, which require a long time series in order to yield statistically significant results. Here, we present a methodology to account for intermittent causal coupling in neural activity, based on the identification of non-overlapping windows within the original time series in which the causality is strongest. The result is a less coarse-grained assessment of the time-varying properties of brain interactions, which can be used to create a high temporal resolution time-varying network. We apply the proposed methodology to the analysis of the brain activity of control subjects and alcoholic patients performing an image recognition task. Our results show that short-lived, intermittent, local-scale causality is better at discriminating both groups than global network metrics. These results highlight the importance of the transient nature of brain activity, at least under some pathological conditions.

Causal analysis of self-sustaining processes in the logarithmic layer of wall-bounded turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bae, H. J.; Encinar, M. P.; Lozano-Durán, A.

2018-04-01

Despite the large amount of information provided by direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows, their underlying dynamics remain elusive even in the most simple and canonical configurations. Most common approaches to investigate the turbulence phenomena do not provide a clear causal inference between events, which is essential to determine the dynamics of self-sustaining processes. In the present work, we examine the causal interactions between streaks, rolls and mean shear in the logarithmic layer of a minimal turbulent channel flow. Causality between structures is assessed in a non-intrusive manner by transfer entropy, i.e., how much the uncertainty of one structure is reduced by knowing the past states of the others. We choose to represent streaks by the first Fourier modes of the streamwise velocity, while rolls are defined by the wall-normal and spanwise velocity modes. The results show that the process is mainly unidirectional rather than cyclic, and that the log-layer motions are sustained by extracting energy from the mean shear which controls the dynamics and time-scales. The well-known lift-up effect is also identified, but shown to be of secondary importance in the causal network between shear, streaks and rolls.

Causal analysis of self-sustaining processes in the log-layer of wall-bounded turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lozano-Duran, Adrian; Bae, Hyunji Jane

2017-11-01

Despite the large amount of information provided by direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows, the underlying dynamics remain elusive even in the most simple and canonical configurations. Most standard methods used to investigate turbulence do not provide a clear causal inference between events, which is necessary to determine this dynamics, particularly in self-sustaning processes. In the present work, we examine the causal interactions between streaks and rolls in the logarithmic layer of minimal turbulent channel flow. Causality between structures is assessed in a non-intrusive manner by transfer entropy, i.e., how much the uncertainty of one structure is reduced by knowing the past states of the others. Streaks are represented by the first Fourier modes of the streamwise velocity, while rolls are defined by the wall-normal and spanwise velocities. The results show that the process is mainly unidirectional rather than cyclic, and that the log-layer motions are sustained by extracting energy from the mean shear, which controls the dynamics and time-scales. The well-known lift-up effect is shown to be not a key ingredient in the causal network between shear, streaks and rolls. Funded by ERC Coturb Madrid Summer Program.

Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2018-01-01

This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The "Mevalonate hypothesis": a cholesterol-independent alternative for the etiology of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Keizer, Hiskias G

2012-11-05

The "cholesterol hypothesis" is the leading theory to explain the cause of atherosclerosis. The "cholesterol hypothesis" assumes that plasma (LDL) cholesterol is an important causal factor for atherosclerosis.However, data of at least seven placebo controlled randomized prospective trials with various cholesterol lowering drugs show that plasma cholesterol lowering does not necessarily lead to protection against cardiovascular disease. Therefore an alternative hypothesis for the etiology of cardiovascular disease is formulated. This alternative hypothesis, the "mevalonate hypothesis", assumes that after stimulation of the mevalonate pathway in endothelial cells by inflammatory factors, these cells start producing cholesterol and free radicals. In this hypothesis, only the latter play a role in the etiology of atherosclerosis by contributing to the formation of oxidized cholesterol which is a widely accepted causal factor for atherosclerosis.Regardless of how the mevalonate pathway is activated (by withdrawal of statin drugs, by inflammatory factors or indirectly by reduced intracellular cholesterol levels) in all these cases free radical production is observed as well as cardiovascular disease. Since in the "mevalonate hypothesis" cholesterol is produced at the same time as the free radicals causing atherosclerosis, this hypothesis provides an explanation for the correlation which exists between cardiovascular disease and plasma cholesterol levels. From an evolutionary perspective, concomitant cholesterol production and free radical production in response to inflammatory factors makes sense if one realizes that both activities potentially protect cells and organisms from infection by gram-negative bacteria.In conclusion, data have been collected which suggest that activation of the mevalonate pathway in endothelial cells is likely to be a causal factor for atherosclerosis. This "mevalonate hypothesis" provides a better explanation for results obtained from recent clinical studies with cholesterol lowering drugs than the "cholesterol hypothesis". Furthermore, this hypothesis explains how cholesterol can be correlated with cardiovascular disease without being a causal factor for it. Finally it provides a logical explanation for the etiology of this disease.

Causal Factors and Adverse Events of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Leone, Karen M.; Sandifer, Carl E.

2011-01-01

Causal factors in aviation accidents and incidents related to system/component failure/malfunction (SCFM) were examined for Federal Aviation Regulation Parts 121 and 135 operations to establish future requirements for the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project. Data analyzed includes National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) accident data (1988 to 2003), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident data (1988 to 2003), and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident data (1993 to 2008). Failure modes and effects analyses were examined to identify possible modes of SCFM. A table of potential adverse conditions was developed to help evaluate IVHM research technologies. Tables present details of specific SCFM for the incidents and accidents. Of the 370 NTSB accidents affected by SCFM, 48 percent involved the engine or fuel system, and 31 percent involved landing gear or hydraulic failure and malfunctions. A total of 35 percent of all SCFM accidents were caused by improper maintenance. Of the 7732 FAA database incidents affected by SCFM, 33 percent involved landing gear or hydraulics, and 33 percent involved the engine and fuel system. The most frequent SCFM found in ASRS were turbine engine, pressurization system, hydraulic main system, flight management system/flight management computer, and engine. Because the IVHM Project does not address maintenance issues, and landing gear and hydraulic systems accidents are usually not fatal, the focus of research should be those SCFMs that occur in the engine/fuel and flight control/structures systems as well as power systems.

Using group model building to understand factors that influence childhood obesity in an urban environment.

PubMed

Nelson, David A; Simenz, Christopher J; OʼConnor, Sarah P; Greer, Yvonne D; Bachrach, Ann L; Shields, Tony; Fuller, Brett A; Horrigan, Katie; Pritchard, Kathleen; Springer, Judy B; Meurer, John R

2015-01-01

Despite increased attention, conventional views of obesity are based upon individual behaviors, and children and parents living with obesity are assumed to be the primary problem solvers. Instead of focusing exclusively on individual reduction behaviors for childhood obesity, greater focus should be placed on better understanding existing community systems and their effects on obesity. The Milwaukee Childhood Obesity Prevention Project is a community-based coalition established to develop policy and environmental change strategies to impact childhood obesity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The coalition conducted a Group Model Building exercise to better understand root causes of childhood obesity in its community. Group Model Building is a process by which a group systematically engages in model construction to better understand the systems that are in place. It helps participants make their mental models explicit through a careful and consistent process to test assumptions. This process has 3 main components: (1) assembling a team of participants; (2) conducting a behavior-over-time graphs exercise; and (3) drawing the causal loop diagram exercise. The behavior-over-time graph portion produced 61 graphs in 10 categories. The causal loop diagram yielded 5 major themes and 7 subthemes. Factors that influence childhood obesity are varied, and it is important to recognize that no single solution exists. The perspectives from this exercise provided a means to create a process for dialogue and commitment by stakeholders and partnerships to build capacity for change within the community.

THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES AND INFANT MORTALITY IN TURKEY.

PubMed

Koç, İsmet; Eryurt, Mehmet Alİ

2017-07-01

Turkey has high levels of infant mortality and consanguineous marriages. It has had a high level of infant mortality for its economic level for many years. Over recent decades, although adult mortality rates have not been very different from those of other countries with similar socioeconomic structures, its life expectancy at birth has remained low due to its high infant mortality rate. This has been called the Turkish Puzzle. According to the Turkey Family Structure and Population Issues Survey, 27% of women had a consanguineous marriage in 1968. Subsequent Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHSs) found the rate of consanguineous marriages to be stagnated at 22-24%, with a resistance to reduction. According to the TDHS-2008, 24% of women had a consanguineous marriage. Numerous studies in various countries of the world have indicated that consanguineous marriages, particularly of first-degree, have the effect of increasing infant mortality. The main aim of this study was to assess the causal impact of consanguineous, particularly first-degree consanguineous, marriages on infant mortality, controlling for individual, cultural, bio-demographic and environmental factors. Data were merged from four Turkish DHS data sets (1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008). Multivariate analysis revealed that first-degree consanguineous marriages have increased infant mortality by 45% in Turkey: 57% in urban areas and 39% in rural areas. The results indicate that there is a causal relationship between consanguineous marriages and infant mortality. This finding should be taken into account when planning policies to reduce infant mortality in Turkey, and in other countries with high rates of consanguineous marriage and infant mortality.

The longitudinal relationship between control over working hours and depressive symptoms: Results from SLOSH, a population-based cohort study.

PubMed

Albrecht, Sophie C; Kecklund, Göran; Rajaleid, Kristiina; Leineweber, Constanze

2017-06-01

Psychosocial work factors can affect depressive moods, but research is inconclusive if flexibility to self-determine working hours (work-time control, WTC) is associated with depressive symptoms over time. We investigated if either sub-dimension of WTC, control over daily hours and control over time off, was related to depressive symptoms over time and examined causal, reversed-causal, and reciprocal pathways. The study was based on four waves of the Swedish Longitudinal Occupational Survey of Health which is a follow-up of representative samples of the Swedish working population. WTC was measured using a 5-item index. Depressive symptoms were assessed with a brief subscale of the Symptom Checklist. Latent growth curve models and cross-lagged panel models were tested. Best fit was found for a model with correlated intercepts (control over daily hours) and both correlated intercepts and slopes (control over time off) between WTC and depressive symptoms, with stronger associations for control over time off. Causal models estimating impacts from WTC to subsequent depressive symptoms were best fitting, with a standardised coefficient between -0.023 and -0.048. Results were mainly based on self-report data and mean age in the study sample was relatively high. Higher WTC was related to fewer depressive symptoms over time albeit small effects. Giving workers control over working hours - especially over taking breaks and vacation - may improve working conditions and buffer against developing depression, potentially by enabling workers to recover more easily and promoting work-life balance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating Functional Genomic Information in Genetic Association Studies Using an Empirical Bayes Approach.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

2016-04-01

There is a large amount of functional genetic data available, which can be used to inform fine-mapping association studies (in diseases with well-characterised disease pathways). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritization via Bayes factors is attractive because prior information can inform the effect size or the prior probability of causal association. This approach requires the specification of the effect size. If the information needed to estimate a priori the probability density for the effect sizes for causal SNPs in a genomic region isn't consistent or isn't available, then specifying a prior variance for the effect sizes is challenging. We propose both an empirical method to estimate this prior variance, and a coherent approach to using SNP-level functional data, to inform the prior probability of causal association. Through simulation we show that when ranking SNPs by our empirical Bayes factor in a fine-mapping study, the causal SNP rank is generally as high or higher than the rank using Bayes factors with other plausible values of the prior variance. Importantly, we also show that assigning SNP-specific prior probabilities of association based on expert prior functional knowledge of the disease mechanism can lead to improved causal SNPs ranks compared to ranking with identical prior probabilities of association. We demonstrate the use of our methods by applying the methods to the fine mapping of the CASP8 region of chromosome 2 using genotype data from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-Environment Study (COGS) Consortium. The data we analysed included approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples. © 2016 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Beliefs of people taking antidepressants about causes of depression and reasons for increased prescribing rates.

PubMed

Read, John; Cartwright, Claire; Gibson, Kerry; Shiels, Christopher; Haslam, Nicholas

2014-10-01

Public beliefs about the causes of mental health problems are related to desire for distance and pessimism about recovery, and are therefore frequently studied. The beliefs of people receiving treatment are researched less often. An online survey on causal beliefs about depression and experiences with antidepressants was completed by 1829 New Zealand adults prescribed anti-depressants in the preceding five years, 97.4% of whom proceeded to take antidepressants. The most frequently endorsed of 17 causal beliefs were family stress, relationship problems, loss of loved one, financial problems, isolation, and abuse or neglect in childhood. Factor analysis produced three factors: 'bio-genetic', 'adulthood stress' and 'childhood adversity'. The most strongly endorsed explanations for increases in antidepressant prescribing invoked improved identification, reduced stigma and drug company marketing. The least strongly endorsed was 'Anti-depressants are the best treatment'. Regression analyses revealed that self-reported efficacy of the antidepressants was positively associated with bio-genetic causal beliefs, negatively associated with childhood adversity beliefs and unrelated to adulthood stress beliefs. The belief that 'People cannot׳ get better by themselves even if they try' was positively associated with bio-genetic beliefs. The convenience sample may have been biased towards a favourable view of bio-genetic explanations, since 83% reported that the medication reduced their depression. Clinicians׳ should consider exploring patients׳ causal beliefs. The public, even when taking antidepressants, continues to hold a multi-factorial causal model of depression with a primary emphasis on psycho-social causes. A three factor model of those beliefs may lead to more sophisticated understandings of relationships with stigma variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multicausality in fatty liver disease: Is there a rationale to distinguish between alcoholic and non-alcoholic origin?

PubMed Central

Völzke, Henry

2012-01-01

Apart from alcohol, there are other factors that may induce complications, which resemble alcohol-related liver disorders. In particular, obesity has been brought into focus as a risk factor for fatty liver disease. The term “non-alcoholic” fatty liver disease is commonly used to distinguish between obesity-related and alcohol-related hepatic steatosis. This review uses the epidemiological perspective to critically assess whether it is necessary and useful to differentiate between alcoholic and “non-alcoholic” fatty liver disease. The MEDLINE database was searched using the PubMed search engine, and a review of reference lists from original research and review articles was conducted. The concept to distinguish between alcoholic and “non-alcoholic” fatty liver disease is mainly based on specific pathomechanisms. This concept has, however, several limitations including the common overlap between alcohol misuse and obesity-related metabolic disorders and the non-consideration of additional causal factors. Both entities share similar histopathological patterns. Studies demonstrating differences in clinical presentation and outcome are often biased by selection. Risk factor reduction is the main principle of prevention and treatment of both disease forms. In conclusion, alcoholic and “non-alcoholic” fatty liver diseases are one and the same disease caused by different risk factors. A shift from artificial categories to a more general approach to fatty liver disease as a multicausal disorder may optimize preventive strategies and help clinicians more effectively treat patients at the individual level. PMID:22826613

Serum Nutritional Biomarkers and Their Associations with Sleep among US Adults in Recent National Surveys

PubMed Central

Beydoun, May A.; Gamaldo, Alyssa A.; Canas, Jose A.; Beydoun, Hind A.; Shah, Mauli T.; McNeely, Jessica M.; Zonderman, Alan B.

2014-01-01

Background The associations between nutritional biomarkers and measures of sleep quantity and quality remain unclear. Methods Cross-sectional data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2005–2006 were used. We selected 2,459 adults aged 20–85, with complete data on key variables. Five sleep measures were constructed as primary outcomes: (A) Sleep duration; (B) Sleep disorder; (C) Three factors obtained from factor analysis of 15 items and labeled as “Poor sleep-related daytime dysfunction” (Factor 1), “Sleepiness” (Factor 2) and “Sleep disturbance” (Factor 3). Main exposures were serum concentrations of key nutrients, namely retinol, retinyl esters, carotenoids (α-carotene, β-carotene, β-cryptoxanthin, lutein+zeaxanthin, lycopene), folate, vitamin B-12, total homocysteine (tHcy), vitamin C, 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and vitamin E. Main analyses consisted of multiple linear, logistic and multinomial logit models. Results Among key findings, independent inverse associations were found between serum vitamin B-12 and sleep duration, 25(OH)D and sleepiness (as well as insomnia), and between folate and sleep disturbance. Serum total carotenoids concentration was linked to higher odds of short sleep duration (i.e. 5–6 h per night) compared to normal sleep duration (7–8 h per night). Conclusions A few of the selected serum nutritional biomarkers were associated with sleep quantity and quality. Longitudinal studies are needed to ascertain temporality and assess putative causal relationships. PMID:25137304

A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees.

PubMed

Kaewanuchit, Chonticha; Muntaner, Carles; Isha, Nizam

2015-07-01

Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level.

Non-parametric causality detection: An application to social media and financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsapeli, Fani; Musolesi, Mirco; Tino, Peter

2017-10-01

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about a particular parametric form of the model expressing statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of observed factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.

Drug and herb induced liver injury: Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences scale for causality assessment

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Wolff, Albrecht; Frenzel, Christian; Schwarzenboeck, Alexander; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

2014-01-01

Causality assessment of suspected drug induced liver injury (DILI) and herb induced liver injury (HILI) is hampered by the lack of a standardized approach to be used by attending physicians and at various subsequent evaluating levels. The aim of this review was to analyze the suitability of the liver specific Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale as a standard tool for causality assessment in DILI and HILI cases. PubMed database was searched for the following terms: drug induced liver injury; herb induced liver injury; DILI causality assessment; and HILI causality assessment. The strength of the CIOMS lies in its potential as a standardized scale for DILI and HILI causality assessment. Other advantages include its liver specificity and its validation for hepatotoxicity with excellent sensitivity, specificity and predictive validity, based on cases with a positive reexposure test. This scale allows prospective collection of all relevant data required for a valid causality assessment. It does not require expert knowledge in hepatotoxicity and its results may subsequently be refined. Weaknesses of the CIOMS scale include the limited exclusion of alternative causes and qualitatively graded risk factors. In conclusion, CIOMS appears to be suitable as a standard scale for attending physicians, regulatory agencies, expert panels and other scientists to provide a standardized, reproducible causality assessment in suspected DILI and HILI cases, applicable primarily at all assessing levels involved. PMID:24653791

Analysing causal structures with entropy

PubMed Central

Weilenmann, Mirjam

2017-01-01

A central question for causal inference is to decide whether a set of correlations fits a given causal structure. In general, this decision problem is computationally infeasible and hence several approaches have emerged that look for certificates of compatibility. Here, we review several such approaches based on entropy. We bring together the key aspects of these entropic techniques with unified terminology, filling several gaps and establishing new connections, all illustrated with examples. We consider cases where unobserved causes are classical, quantum and post-quantum, and discuss what entropic analyses tell us about the difference. This difference has applications to quantum cryptography, where it can be crucial to eliminate the possibility of classical causes. We discuss the achievements and limitations of the entropic approach in comparison to other techniques and point out the main open problems. PMID:29225499

Analysing causal structures with entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weilenmann, Mirjam; Colbeck, Roger

2017-11-01

A central question for causal inference is to decide whether a set of correlations fits a given causal structure. In general, this decision problem is computationally infeasible and hence several approaches have emerged that look for certificates of compatibility. Here, we review several such approaches based on entropy. We bring together the key aspects of these entropic techniques with unified terminology, filling several gaps and establishing new connections, all illustrated with examples. We consider cases where unobserved causes are classical, quantum and post-quantum, and discuss what entropic analyses tell us about the difference. This difference has applications to quantum cryptography, where it can be crucial to eliminate the possibility of classical causes. We discuss the achievements and limitations of the entropic approach in comparison to other techniques and point out the main open problems.

A review of causal inference for biomedical informatics

PubMed Central

Kleinberg, Samantha; Hripcsak, George

2011-01-01

Causality is an important concept throughout the health sciences and is particularly vital for informatics work such as finding adverse drug events or risk factors for disease using electronic health records. While philosophers and scientists working for centuries on formalizing what makes something a cause have not reached a consensus, new methods for inference show that we can make progress in this area in many practical cases. This article reviews core concepts in understanding and identifying causality and then reviews current computational methods for inference and explanation, focusing on inference from large-scale observational data. While the problem is not fully solved, we show that graphical models and Granger causality provide useful frameworks for inference and that a more recent approach based on temporal logic addresses some of the limitations of these methods. PMID:21782035

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-05-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Middle ear effusion in children and the indoor environment: an epidemiological study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Iversen, M.; Birch, L.; Lundqvist, G.R.

Very low air infiltration rates have been found in new Danish day-care institutions built according to the energy conservation measures enforced in the Building Regulations. Complaints from staff in institutions have been numerous, e.g., mainly eyes and upper airways problems. Formaldehyde has been recognized as a causal factor in some cases. Extensive retrofitting has occurred in Denmark for energy conservation reasons. This will lower the air infiltration rates in dwellings and possibly create higher levels of pollutants produced indoors. A prospective study of 337 children was carried out during a 3-month period. The purpose of the study was to evaluatemore » the importance of indoor environmental factors in homes and day-care institutions for the incidence of middle ear effusion (MEE). The indoor environmental factors measured in institutions were carbon dioxide, temperature, and relative humidity. Conditions in the homes were assessed by a questionnaire. Middle ear effusion was measured by tympanometry. No relationship was found between indoor environmental factors and MEE, with the exception of parental smoking at home, which increased the frequency of MEE in children.« less

Risk factors for breast cancer by oestrogen receptor status: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed Central

Cooper, J. A.; Rohan, T. E.; Cant, E. L.; Horsfall, D. J.; Tilley, W. D.

1989-01-01

Data from a population-based case-control study conducted in Adelaide, South Australia, and involving 451 case-control pairs, were analysed to determine whether the associations of menstrual, reproductive, dietary and other factors with risk of breast cancer differed by oestrogen receptor (ER) status. Data on ER status were available for 380 cases. The proportion of tumours which were ER+ increased with age, and there was a higher proportion of ER+ tumours in post-menopausal than in premenopausal women. Both oral contraceptive use (P = 0.055) and cigarette smoking (P = 0.047) were associated with increased (unadjusted) risk of ER- cancer, while having little association with risk of ER+ cancer. Most dietary factors had little association with risk of either cancer type, the main exception being the reduction in risk of ER- breast cancer with increasing beta-carotene intake (P for trend = 0.017). In general, however, links with the factors examined were not strong enough to suggest different causal pathways for ER- and ER+ breast cancer. PMID:2757918

Chocolate intake is associated with better cognitive function: The Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Crichton, Georgina E; Elias, Merrill F; Alkerwi, Ala'a

2016-05-01

Chocolate and cocoa flavanols have been associated with improvements in a range of health complaints dating from ancient times, and has established cardiovascular benefits. Less is known about the effects of chocolate on neurocognition and behaviour. The aim of this study was to investigate whether chocolate intake was associated with cognitive function, with adjustment for cardiovascular, lifestyle and dietary factors. Cross-sectional analyses were undertaken on 968 community-dwelling participants, aged 23-98 years, from the Maine-Syracuse Longitudinal Study (MSLS). Habitual chocolate intake was related to cognitive performance, measured with an extensive battery of neuropsychological tests. More frequent chocolate consumption was significantly associated with better performance on the Global Composite score, Visual-Spatial Memory and Organization, Working Memory, Scanning and Tracking, Abstract Reasoning, and the Mini-Mental State Examination. With the exception of Working Memory, these relations were not attenuated with statistical control for cardiovascular, lifestyle and dietary factors. Prospective analyses revealed no association between cognitive function and chocolate intake measured up to 18 years later. Further intervention trials and longitudinal studies are needed to explore relations between chocolate, cocoa flavanols and cognition, and the underlying causal mechanisms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding causal pathways within health systems policy evaluation through mediation analysis: an application to payment for performance (P4P) in Tanzania.

PubMed

Anselmi, Laura; Binyaruka, Peter; Borghi, Josephine

2017-02-02

The evaluation of payment for performance (P4P) programmes has focused mainly on understanding contributions to health service coverage, without unpacking causal mechanisms. The overall aim of the paper is to test the causal pathways through which P4P schemes may (or may not) influence maternal care outcomes. We used data from an evaluation of a P4P programme in Tanzania. Data were collected from a sample of 3000 women who delivered in the 12 months prior to interview and 200 health workers at 150 health facilities from seven intervention and four comparison districts in Tanzania in January 2012 and in February 2013. We applied causal mediation analysis using a linear structural equation model to identify direct and indirect effects of P4P on institutional delivery rates and on the uptake of two doses of an antimalarial drug during pregnancy. We first ran a series of linear difference-in-difference regression models to test the effect of P4P on potential mediators, which we then included in a linear difference-in-difference model evaluating the impact of P4P on the outcome. We tested the robustness of our results to unmeasured confounding using semi-parametric methods. P4P reduced the probability of women paying for delivery care (-4.5 percentage points) which mediates the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 78%). P4P reduced the stock-out rate for some essential drugs, specifically oxytocin (-36 percentage points), which mediated the total effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 22%) and deliveries in a public health facility (by 30%). P4P increased kindness at delivery (5 percentage points), which mediated the effect of P4P on institutional deliveries (by 48%) and on deliveries in a public health facility (by 49%). P4P increased the likelihood of supervision visits taking place within the last 90 days (18 percentage points), which mediated 15% of the total P4P effect on the uptake of two antimalarial doses during antenatal care (IPT2). Kindness during deliveries and the probability of paying out of pocket for delivery care were the mediators most robust to unmeasured confounding. The effect of P4P on institutional deliveries is mediated by financing and human resources factors, while uptake of antimalarials in pregnancy is mediated by governance factors. Further research is required to explore additional and more complex causal pathways.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

PubMed

Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-03-08

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

PubMed Central

Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

What do we know about developing patient portals? a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Otte-Trojel, Terese; de Bont, Antoinette; Rundall, Thomas G; van de Klundert, Joris

2016-04-01

Numerous articles have reported on the development of patient portals, including development problems and solutions. We review these articles to inform future patient portal development efforts and to provide a summary of the evidence base that can guide future research. We performed a systematic review of relevant literature to answer 5 questions: (1) What categories of problems related to patient portal development have been defined? (2) What causal factors have been identified by problem analysis and diagnosis? (3) What solutions have been proposed to ameliorate these causal factors? (4) Which proposed solutions have been implemented and in which organizational contexts? (5) Have implemented solutions been evaluated and what learning has been generated? Through searches on PubMed, ScienceDirect and LISTA, we included 109 articles. We identified 5 main problem categories: achieving patient engagement, provider engagement, appropriate data governance, security and interoperability, and a sustainable business model. Further, we identified key factors contributing to these problems as well as solutions proposed to ameliorate them. While about half (45) of the 109 articles proposed solutions, fewer than half of these solutions (18) were implemented, and even fewer (5) were evaluated to generate learning about their effects. Few studies systematically report on the patient portal development processes. As a result, the review does not provide an evidence base for portal development. Our findings support a set of recommendations for advancement of the evidence base: future research should build on existing evidence, draw on principles from design sciences conveyed in the problem-solving cycle, and seek to produce evidence within various different organizational contexts. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

What do we know about developing patient portals? a systematic literature review

PubMed Central

de Bont, Antoinette; Rundall, Thomas G; van de Klundert, Joris

2016-01-01

Objective Numerous articles have reported on the development of patient portals, including development problems and solutions. We review these articles to inform future patient portal development efforts and to provide a summary of the evidence base that can guide future research. Materials and Methods We performed a systematic review of relevant literature to answer 5 questions: (1) What categories of problems related to patient portal development have been defined? (2) What causal factors have been identified by problem analysis and diagnosis? (3) What solutions have been proposed to ameliorate these causal factors? (4) Which proposed solutions have been implemented and in which organizational contexts? (5) Have implemented solutions been evaluated and what learning has been generated? Through searches on PubMed, ScienceDirect and LISTA, we included 109 articles. Results We identified 5 main problem categories: achieving patient engagement, provider engagement, appropriate data governance, security and interoperability, and a sustainable business model. Further, we identified key factors contributing to these problems as well as solutions proposed to ameliorate them. While about half (45) of the 109 articles proposed solutions, fewer than half of these solutions (18) were implemented, and even fewer (5) were evaluated to generate learning about their effects. Discussion Few studies systematically report on the patient portal development processes. As a result, the review does not provide an evidence base for portal development. Conclusion Our findings support a set of recommendations for advancement of the evidence base: future research should build on existing evidence, draw on principles from design sciences conveyed in the problem-solving cycle, and seek to produce evidence within various different organizational contexts. PMID:26335985

Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort.

PubMed

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J; Beresford, Shirley A A; Wang, Catharine

2016-01-01

Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors.

Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fushino, Kumiko

2010-01-01

This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

2015-01-01

This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

The Impact of Letter Grades on Student Effort, Course Selection, and Major Choice: A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Main, Joyce B.; Ost, Ben

2014-01-01

The authors apply a regression-discontinuity design to identify the causal impact of letter grades on student effort within a course, subsequent credit hours taken, and the probability of majoring in economics. Their methodology addresses key issues in identifying the causal impact of letter grades: correlation with unobservable factors, such as…

Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

PubMed

Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

2015-01-01

Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

Effects of cognitive training on the structure of intelligence.

PubMed

Protzko, John

2017-08-01

Targeted cognitive training, such as n-back or speed of processing training, in the hopes of raising intelligence is of great theoretical and practical importance. The most important theoretical contribution, however, is not about the malleability of intelligence. Instead, I argue the most important and novel theoretical contribution is understanding the causal structure of intelligence. The structure of intelligence, most often taken as a hierarchical factor structure, necessarily prohibits transfer from subfactors back up to intelligence. If this is the true structure, targeted cognitive training interventions will fail to increase intelligence not because intelligence is immutable, but simply because there is no causal connection between, say, working memory and intelligence. Seeing the structure of intelligence for what it is, a causal measurement model, allows us to focus testing on the presence and absence of causal links. If we can increase subfactors without transfer to other facets, we may be confirming the correct causal structure more than testing malleability. Such a blending into experimental psychometrics is a strong theoretical pursuit.

Children's beliefs about causes of childhood depression and ADHD: a study of stigmatization.

PubMed

Coleman, Daniel; Walker, Janet S; Lee, Junghee; Friesen, Barbara J; Squire, Peter N

2009-07-01

Children's causal attributions about childhood mental health problems were examined in a national sample for prevalence; relative stigmatization; variation by age, race and ethnicity, and gender; and self-report of a diagnosis of depression or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). A national sample of 1,091 children were randomly assigned to read vignettes about a peer with depression, ADHD, or asthma and respond to an online survey. Causal attributions and social distance were assessed, and correlations were examined. Logistic regression models for each causal item tested main effects and interaction terms for conditions, demographic characteristics, and self-reported diagnosis. The beliefs that parenting, substance abuse, and low effort caused the condition were all strongly intercorrelated and were moderately correlated with social distance. The depression condition was the strongest predictor of endorsement of the most stigmatizing causal beliefs. Stigmatizing causal beliefs were evident for ADHD, but with more modest effects. Children who reported a diagnosis were more likely to endorse parenting and substance abuse as causes (attenuated for ADHD). Modest to moderate effects were found for variation in causal beliefs across ethnic groups. This study demonstrated a consistent presence of stigmatization in children's beliefs about the causes of childhood mental health problems. Low effort, parenting, and substance abuse together tapped a moralistic and blaming view of mental health problems. The results reinforce the need to address stigmatization of mental disorders and the relative stigmatization of different causal beliefs. The findings of variation by ethnicity and diagnosis can inform and target antistigmatization efforts.

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the formulation of causal hypotheses, which will be a basis for all methodological choices. Beyond this step, statistical analysis tools recently developed offer new possibilities to delineate complex relationships, in particular in life course epidemiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

PubMed

Saxe, Glenn N; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C; Aliferis, Constantin

2016-01-01

Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

Drug-disease association and drug-repositioning predictions in complex diseases using causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization.

PubMed

Yang, Jihong; Li, Zheng; Fan, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiyu

2014-09-22

The high incidence of complex diseases has become a worldwide threat to human health. Multiple targets and pathways are perturbed during the pathological process of complex diseases. Systematic investigation of complex relationship between drugs and diseases is necessary for new association discovery and drug repurposing. For this purpose, three causal networks were constructed herein for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. A causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization (CI-PMF) approach was proposed to predict and classify drug-disease associations, and further used for drug-repositioning predictions. First, multilevel systematic relations between drugs and diseases were integrated from heterogeneous databases to construct causal networks connecting drug-target-pathway-gene-disease. Then, the association scores between drugs and diseases were assessed by evaluating a drug's effects on multiple targets and pathways. Furthermore, PMF models were learned based on known interactions, and associations were then classified into three types by trained models. Finally, therapeutic associations were predicted based upon the ranking of association scores and predicted association types. In terms of drug-disease association prediction, modified causal inference included in CI-PMF outperformed existing causal inference with a higher AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) score and greater precision. Moreover, CI-PMF performed better than single modified causal inference in predicting therapeutic drug-disease associations. In the top 30% of predicted associations, 58.6% (136/232), 50.8% (31/61), and 39.8% (140/352) hit known therapeutic associations, while precisions obtained by the latter were only 10.2% (231/2264), 8.8% (36/411), and 9.7% (189/1948). Clinical verifications were further conducted for the top 100 newly predicted therapeutic associations. As a result, 21, 12, and 32 associations have been studied and many treatment effects of drugs on diseases were investigated for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. Related chains in causal networks were extracted for these 65 clinical-verified associations, and we further illustrated the therapeutic role of etodolac in breast cancer by inferred chains. Overall, CI-PMF is a useful approach for associating drugs with complex diseases and provides potential values for drug repositioning.

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

2010-01-01

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

[Exploration of influencing factors of price of herbal based on VAR model].

PubMed

Wang, Nuo; Liu, Shu-Zhen; Yang, Guang

2014-10-01

Based on vector auto-regression (VAR) model, this paper takes advantage of Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis techniques to carry out a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the price of Chinese herbal, including herbal cultivation costs, acreage, natural disasters, the residents' needs and inflation. The study found that there is Granger causality relationship between inflation and herbal prices, cultivation costs and herbal prices. And in the total variance analysis of Chinese herbal and medicine price index, the largest contribution to it is from its own fluctuations, followed by the cultivation costs and inflation.

Influence of climate cycles on grapevine domestication and ancient migrations in Eurasia.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Maghradze, David; Failla, Osvaldo; Zavatti, Franco

2018-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the Holocenic climate cycles that may have influenced the domestication of grapevine in the Subcaucasian area and its subsequent spread in Eurasia. The analysis covered the longitudinal belt ranging from the Iberian Peninsula to Japan, seen as the preferential pathway for the Holocenic spread of grapevine and many other crops in Eurasia. Spectral analysis was considered as the criterion of investigation and the Holocenic cycles were analyzed considering different geochemical and biological proxies, of which seven are directly referred to vine. In this context the relation of the abovementioned proxies with spectral peaks of possible causal factors like Solar activity (SA), North Atlantic oceanic factors (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), and subtropical oceanic factors (El Nino Southern Oscillation - ENSO) was also analyzed. In order to acquire a sufficiently wide number of proxies sensitive to the causal factors, we referred to a latitudinal belt wider than the one colonized by vine, also acquiring proxy from the Scandinavian area, notoriously susceptible to North Atlantic forcings. The analysis of the proxy spectral peaks, considering 20 classes with a 50-years step in the 0-1000 years range, showed that the 50% of the classes have a higher frequency of peaks at East than West, the 20% a higher frequency at West than East and the 10% an equal frequency, showing the efficiency of the propagation of Western signals towards the center of Eurasia. The search of the causal factors spectral peaks in the proxy series showed that AMO, NAO and SA acted with a certain regularity on the entire belt investigated both latitudinally and longitudinally, while spectral peaks linked to ENSO underwent a considerable attenuation moving northward. Finally, the specific analysis on viticultural proxies showed common peaks with causal factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

PubMed

Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

1991-04-01

Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.

Universal behavior of generalized causal set d’Alembertians in curved spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belenchia, Alessio

2016-07-01

Causal set non-local wave operators allow both for the definition of an action for causal set theory and the study of deviations from local physics that may have interesting phenomenological consequences. It was previously shown that, in all dimensions, the (unique) minimal discrete operators give averaged continuum non-local operators that reduce to \\square -R/2 in the local limit. Recently, dropping the constraint of minimality, it was shown that there exist an infinite number of discrete operators satisfying basic physical requirements and with the right local limit in flat spacetime. In this work, we consider this entire class of generalized causal set d’Alembertins in curved spacetimes and extend to them the result about the universality of the -R/2 factor. Finally, we comment on the relation of this result to the Einstein equivalence principle.

Political Attitudes Develop Independently of Personality Traits

PubMed Central

Hatemi, Peter K.; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area. PMID:25734580

Political attitudes develop independently of personality traits.

PubMed

Hatemi, Peter K; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Low Educational Achievement: Evidence Supporting A Causal Hypothesis.

PubMed

de Zeeuw, Eveline L; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Ehli, Erik A; de Geus, Eco J C; Boomsma, Dorret I

2017-05-01

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and educational achievement are negatively associated in children. Here we test the hypothesis that there is a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement. The causal effect is tested in a genetically sensitive design to exclude the possibility of confounding by a third factor (e.g. genetic pleiotropy) and by comparing educational achievement and secondary school career in children with ADHD who take or do not take methylphenidate. Data on ADHD symptoms, educational achievement and methylphenidate usage were available in a primary school sample of ~10,000 12-year-old twins from the Netherlands Twin Register. A substantial group also had longitudinal data at ages 7-12 years. ADHD symptoms were cross-sectionally and longitudinally, associated with lower educational achievement at age 12. More ADHD symptoms predicted a lower-level future secondary school career at age 14-16. In both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, testing the direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement, while controlling for genetic and environmental factors, revealed an association between ADHD symptoms and educational achievement independent of genetic and environmental pleiotropy. These findings were confirmed in MZ twin intra-pair differences models, twins with more ADHD symptoms scored lower on educational achievement than their co-twins. Furthermore, children with ADHD medication, scored significantly higher on the educational achievement test than children with ADHD who did not use medication. Taken together, the results are consistent with a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement.

A genetically informative developmental study of the relationship between conduct disorder and peer deviance in males

PubMed Central

Kendler, K. S.; Jacobson, K.; Myers, J. M.; Eaves, L. J.

2014-01-01

Background Conduct disorder (CD) and peer deviance (PD) both powerfully predict future externalizing behaviors. Although levels of CD and PD are strongly correlated, the causal relationship between them has remained controversial and has not been examined by a genetically informative study. Method Levels of CD and PD were assessed in 746 adult male–male twin pairs at personal interview for ages 8–11, 12–14 and 15–17 years using a life history calendar. Model fitting was performed using the Mx program. Results The best-fit model indicated an active developmental relationship between CD and PD including forward transmission of both traits over time and strong causal relationships between CD and PD within time periods. The best-fit model indicated that the causal relationship for genetic risk factors was from CD to PD and was constant over time. For common environmental factors, the causal pathways ran from PD to CD and were stronger in earlier than later age periods. Conclusions A genetically informative model revealed causal pathways difficult to elucidate by other methods. Genes influence risk for CD, which, through social selection, impacts on the deviance of peers. Shared environment, through family and community processes, encourages or discourages adolescent deviant behavior, which, via social influence, alters risk for CD. Social influence is more important than social selection in childhood, but by late adolescence social selection becomes predominant. These findings have implications for prevention efforts for CD and associated externalizing disorders. PMID:17935643

[Does the recent psychosocial research consider the perspective of developmental psychopathology?].

PubMed

Glaesmer, Heide; Petermann, Franz; Schüssler, Gerhard

2009-10-01

Developmental psychopathology is studying the development of psychological disorders with a life course perspective and an interdisciplinary approach considering the interplay of biological, psychological and social factors in complex models. The bibliometric analysis examines the implementation of this concept in the recent psychosocial research in the German-speaking area. Volumes 2007 and 2008 of three German psychological journals "Zeitschrift für Psychotherapie, Psychosomatik und Medizinische Psychologie", "Zeitschrift für Psychosomatische Medizin und Psychotherapie", and "Zeitschrift für Psychiatrie, Psychologie und Psychotherapie" were screened for articles dealing with issues of developmental psychopathology. 46 articles were identified and evaluated. Several aspects of developmental psychopathology are considered in a vast number of studies, but there is a main focus on risk factors, but not on protective factors and most of the studies are based on cross-sectional designs. Most of the recent practice in psychosocial research is not beneficial for the identification of causal effects or the complex interplay of risk and protective factors in the development of psychological disorders. Thus, longitudinal studies, taking biological, psychological and social factors and their interplay into account are essential to meet the requirement of developmental psychopathology. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart. New York.

[Advance to the research of the climate factor effect on the distribution of plague].

PubMed

Zhang, A P; Wei, R J; Xiong, H M; Wang, Z Y

2016-05-01

Plague is an anthropozoonotic disease caused by the Yersinia pestis ,which developed by many factors including local climate factors. In recent years, more and more studies on the effects of climate on plague were conducted. According to the researches, climate factors (mainly the rainfall and temperature) affected the development and distribution of plague by influencing the abundance of plague host animals and fleas index. The climate also affected the epidemic dynamics and the scope of plague. There were significant differences existing in the influence of climate on the palgue developed in the north and south China. In the two different plague epidemic systems, the solitary Daurian ground squirrel-flea-plague and the social Mongolian gerbil-flea-plague, the obvious population differences existed among the responses of the host animal to the climate changes. Although the internal relationship between the rainfall, the flea index, the density of rodents and the plague supported the nutritional cascade hypothesis, it can not prove that there is a clear causality between the occurrence of plague and rainfall. So the influence of climate factors on plague distribution can only be used for early forecasting and warning of the plague.

Inferring Causalities in Landscape Genetics: An Extension of Wright's Causal Modeling to Distance Matrices.

PubMed

Fourtune, Lisa; Prunier, Jérôme G; Paz-Vinas, Ivan; Loot, Géraldine; Veyssière, Charlotte; Blanchet, Simon

2018-04-01

Identifying landscape features that affect functional connectivity among populations is a major challenge in fundamental and applied sciences. Landscape genetics combines landscape and genetic data to address this issue, with the main objective of disentangling direct and indirect relationships among an intricate set of variables. Causal modeling has strong potential to address the complex nature of landscape genetic data sets. However, this statistical approach was not initially developed to address the pairwise distance matrices commonly used in landscape genetics. Here, we aimed to extend the applicability of two causal modeling methods-that is, maximum-likelihood path analysis and the directional separation test-by developing statistical approaches aimed at handling distance matrices and improving functional connectivity inference. Using simulations, we showed that these approaches greatly improved the robustness of the absolute (using a frequentist approach) and relative (using an information-theoretic approach) fits of the tested models. We used an empirical data set combining genetic information on a freshwater fish species (Gobio occitaniae) and detailed landscape descriptors to demonstrate the usefulness of causal modeling to identify functional connectivity in wild populations. Specifically, we demonstrated how direct and indirect relationships involving altitude, temperature, and oxygen concentration influenced within- and between-population genetic diversity of G. occitaniae.

Causal gene identification using combinatorial V-structure search.

PubMed

Cai, Ruichu; Zhang, Zhenjie; Hao, Zhifeng

2013-07-01

With the advances of biomedical techniques in the last decade, the costs of human genomic sequencing and genomic activity monitoring are coming down rapidly. To support the huge genome-based business in the near future, researchers are eager to find killer applications based on human genome information. Causal gene identification is one of the most promising applications, which may help the potential patients to estimate the risk of certain genetic diseases and locate the target gene for further genetic therapy. Unfortunately, existing pattern recognition techniques, such as Bayesian networks, cannot be directly applied to find the accurate causal relationship between genes and diseases. This is mainly due to the insufficient number of samples and the extremely high dimensionality of the gene space. In this paper, we present the first practical solution to causal gene identification, utilizing a new combinatorial formulation over V-Structures commonly used in conventional Bayesian networks, by exploring the combinations of significant V-Structures. We prove the NP-hardness of the combinatorial search problem under a general settings on the significance measure on the V-Structures, and present a greedy algorithm to find sub-optimal results. Extensive experiments show that our proposal is both scalable and effective, particularly with interesting findings on the causal genes over real human genome data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of the impact of main control room digitalization on operators cognitive reliability in nuclear power plants.

PubMed

Zhou, Yong; Mu, Haiying; Jiang, Jianjun; Zhang, Li

2012-01-01

Currently, there is a trend in nuclear power plants (NPPs) toward introducing digital and computer technologies into main control rooms (MCRs). Safe generation of electric power in NPPs requires reliable performance of cognitive tasks such as fault detection, diagnosis, and response planning. The digitalization of MCRs has dramatically changed the whole operating environment, and the ways operators interact with the plant systems. If the design and implementation of the digital technology is incompatible with operators' cognitive characteristics, it may have negative effects on operators' cognitive reliability. Firstly, on the basis of three essential prerequisites for successful cognitive tasks, a causal model is constructed to reveal the typical human performance issues arising from digitalization. The cognitive mechanisms which they impact cognitive reliability are analyzed in detail. Then, Bayesian inference is used to quantify and prioritize the influences of these factors. It suggests that interface management and unbalanced workload distribution have more significant impacts on operators' cognitive reliability.

Jasmonic Acid, Abscisic Acid, and Salicylic Acid Are Involved in the Phytoalexin Responses of Rice to Fusarium fujikuroi, a High Gibberellin Producer Pathogen.

PubMed

Siciliano, Ilenia; Amaral Carneiro, Greice; Spadaro, Davide; Garibaldi, Angelo; Gullino, Maria Lodovica

2015-09-23

Fusarium fujikuroi, the causal agent of bakanae disease, is the main seedborne pathogen on rice. To understand the basis of rice resistance, a quantitative method to simultaneously detect phytohormones and phytoalexins was developed by using HPLC-MS/MS. With this method dynamic profiles and possible interactions of defense-related phytohormones and phytoalexins were investigated on two rice cultivars, inoculated or not with F. fujikuroi. In the resistant cultivar Selenio, the presence of pathogen induced high production of phytoalexins, mainly sakuranetin, and symptoms of bakanae were not observed. On the contrary, in the susceptible genotype Dorella, the pathogen induced the production of gibberellin and abscisic acid and inhibited jasmonic acid production, phytoalexins were very low, and bakanae symptoms were observed. The results suggested that a wide range of secondary metabolites are involved in plant defense against pathogens and phytoalexin synthesis could be an important factor for rice resistance against bakanae disease.

Using HFACS-Healthcare to Identify Systemic Vulnerabilities During Surgery.

PubMed

Cohen, Tara N; Francis, Sarah E; Wiegmann, Douglas A; Shappell, Scott A; Gewertz, Bruce L

2018-03-01

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Healthcare (HFACS-Healthcare) was used to classify surgical near miss events reported via a hospital's event reporting system over the course of 1 year. Two trained analysts identified causal factors within each event narrative and subsequently categorized the events using HFACS-Healthcare. Of 910 original events, 592 could be analyzed further using HFACS-Healthcare, resulting in the identification of 726 causal factors. Most issues (n = 436, 60.00%) involved preconditions for unsafe acts, followed by unsafe acts (n = 257, 35.39%), organizational influences (n = 27, 3.72%), and supervisory factors (n = 6, 0.82%). These findings go beyond the traditional methods of trending incident data that typically focus on documenting the frequency of their occurrence. Analyzing near misses based on their underlying contributing human factors affords a greater opportunity to develop process improvements to reduce reoccurrence and better provide patient safety approaches.

Knowledge gaps in scientific literature on maternal mortality: a systematic review.

PubMed Central

Gil-González, Diana; Carrasco-Portiño, Mercedes; Ruiz, Maria Teresa

2006-01-01

Issues related to maternal mortality have generated a lot of empirical and theoretical information. However, despite the amount of work published on the topic, maternal mortality continues to occur at high rates and solutions to the problem are still not clear. Scientific research on maternal mortality is focused mainly on clinical factors. However, this approach may not be the most useful if we are to understand the problem of maternal mortality as a whole and appreciate the importance of economical, political and social macrostructural factors. In this paper, we report the number of scientific studies published between 2000 and 2004 about the main causes of maternal death, as identified by WHO, and compare the proportion of papers on each cause with the corresponding burden of each cause. Secondly, we systematically review the characteristics and quality of the papers on the macrostructural determinants of maternal mortality. In view of their burden, obstructed labour, unsafe abortion and haemorrhage are proportionally underrepresented in the scientific literature. In our review, most studies analysed were cross-sectional, and were carried out by developed countries without the participation of researchers in the developing countries where maternal mortality was studied. The main macrostructural factors mentioned were socioeconomic variables. Overall, there is a lack of published information about the cultural and political determinants of maternal mortality. We believe that a high-quality scientific approach must be taken in studies of maternal mortality in order to obtain robust comparative data and that study design should be improved to allow causality between macrostructural determinants and maternal mortality to be shown. PMID:17143465

Molecular epidemiology of acute leukemia in children: causal model, interaction of three factors-susceptibility, environmental exposure and vulnerability period.

PubMed

Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

Acute leukemias have a huge morphological, cytogenetic and molecular heterogeneity and genetic polymorphisms associated with susceptibility. Every leukemia presents causal factors associated with the development of the disease. Particularly, when three factors are present, they result in the development of acute leukemia. These phenomena are susceptibility, environmental exposure and a period that, for this model, has been called the period of vulnerability. This framework shows how the concepts of molecular epidemiology have established a reference from which it is more feasible to identify the environmental factors associated with the development of leukemia in children. Subsequently, the arguments show that only susceptible children are likely to develop leukemia once exposed to an environmental factor. For additional exposure, if the child is not susceptible to leukemia, the disease does not develop. In addition, this exposure should occur during a time window when hematopoietic cells and their environment are more vulnerable to such interaction, causing the development of leukemia. This model seeks to predict the time when the leukemia develops and attempts to give a context in which the causality of childhood leukemia should be studied. This information can influence and reduce the risk of a child developing leukemia. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use.

PubMed

Edwards, Alexis C; Maes, Hermine H; Prescott, Carol A; Kendler, Kenneth S

2015-02-01

Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one's peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. This study uses data from a sample of male twins (N = 1,790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers' alcohol-related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12 to 25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare 3 plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Model fitting indicated that one's own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one's peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Peers' alcohol use behaviors and one's own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use

PubMed Central

Edwards, Alexis C.; Maesr, Hermine H.; Prescott, Carol A.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one’s peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. Methods The current study uses data from a sample of male twins (N=1790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers’ alcohol related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12–25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare three plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Results Model fitting indicated that one’s own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one’s peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Conclusions Peers’ alcohol use behaviors and one’s own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. PMID:25597346

Causal Responsibility and Counterfactuals

PubMed Central

Lagnado, David A; Gerstenberg, Tobias; Zultan, Ro'i

2013-01-01

How do people attribute responsibility in situations where the contributions of multiple agents combine to produce a joint outcome? The prevalence of over-determination in such cases makes this a difficult problem for counterfactual theories of causal responsibility. In this article, we explore a general framework for assigning responsibility in multiple agent contexts. We draw on the structural model account of actual causation (e.g., Halpern & Pearl, 2005) and its extension to responsibility judgments (Chockler & Halpern, 2004). We review the main theoretical and empirical issues that arise from this literature and propose a novel model of intuitive judgments of responsibility. This model is a function of both pivotality (whether an agent made a difference to the outcome) and criticality (how important the agent is perceived to be for the outcome, before any actions are taken). The model explains empirical results from previous studies and is supported by a new experiment that manipulates both pivotality and criticality. We also discuss possible extensions of this model to deal with a broader range of causal situations. Overall, our approach emphasizes the close interrelations between causality, counterfactuals, and responsibility attributions. PMID:23855451

Causal cognition in a non-human primate: field playback experiments with Diana monkeys.

PubMed

Zuberbühler, K

2000-09-14

Crested guinea fowls (Guttera pucherani) living in West African rainforests give alarm calls to leopards (Panthera pardus) and sometimes humans (Homo sapiens), two main predators of sympatric Diana monkeys (Cercopithecus diana). When hearing these guinea fowl alarm calls, Diana monkeys respond as if a leopard were present, suggesting that by default the monkeys associate guinea fowl alarm calls with the presence of a leopard. To assess the monkeys' level of causal understanding, I primed monkeys to the presence of either a leopard or a human, before exposing them to playbacks of guinea fowl alarm calls. There were significant differences in the way leopard-primed groups and human-primed groups responded to guinea fowl alarm calls, suggesting that the monkeys' response was not directly driven by the alarm calls themselves but by the calls' underlying cause, i.e. the predator most likely to have caused the calls. Results are discussed with respect to three possible cognitive mechanisms - associative learning, specialized learning programs, and causal reasoning - that could have led to causal knowledge in Diana monkeys.

Safety compliance and safety climate: A repeated cross-sectional study in the oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Kvalheim, Sverre A; Dahl, Øyvind

2016-12-01

Violations of safety rules and procedures are commonly identified as a causal factor in accidents in the oil and gas industry. Extensive knowledge on effective management practices related to improved compliance with safety procedures is therefore needed. Previous studies of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance demonstrate that the propensity to act in accordance with prevailing rules and procedures is influenced to a large degree by workers' safety climate. Commonly, the climate measures employed differ from one study to another and identical measures of safety climate are seldom tested repeatedly over extended periods of time. This research gap is addressed in the present study. The study is based on a survey conducted four times among sharp-end workers of the Norwegian oil and gas industry (N=31,350). This is done by performing multiple tests (regression analysis) over a period of 7years of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance. The safety climate measure employed is identical across the 7-year period. Taking all periods together, the employed safety climate model explained roughly 27% of the variance in safety compliance. The causal relationship was found to be stable across the period, thereby increasing the reliability and the predictive validity of the factor structure. The safety climate factor that had the most powerful effect on safety compliance was work pressure. The factor structure employed shows high predictive validity and should therefore be relevant to organizations seeking to improve safety in the petroleum sector. The findings should also be relevant to other high-hazard industries where safety rules and procedures constitute a central part of the approach to managing safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

PubMed Central

KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

2015-01-01

Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Conclusion: Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371

Analyzing Human Behaviour Toward Food Waste in Qatar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

A Hussain, Shaema Mohd Hassan

Food waste is a major issue in many countries due to the impact of waste on the environment and the cost of producing food and water. Food waste not only constitutes a hazard to the environment through the emission of greenhouse gases, but billions of dollars are also lost as a result of production, distribution and waste management costs. In view of this, this study examined factors that have potential to influence intent to waste food and food waste behavior among consumers in Qatar. The main objective of the study was to find a suitable model that explains food waste behavior in Qatar and compare it to an international model in order to understand region specific factors and try to replicate a hypothesized model of the causal effects of some factors (i.e., subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and personal attitude) on intent to waste food and food waste behavior. Three research questions were developed and answers were provided by random selection of 139 respondents from the Qatar Foundation and Georgetown University Qatar databases gathered through a survey with 139 complete questionnaires in order to test the hypothesized model, which was created based on literature. The Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) approach was the main statistical tool of the investigation and was used to carry out the path analysis. The findings of the study revealed that factors, including, planning routine, Ramadan, gender task, and personal norm were strong predictors of intention to waste food and food waste behavior.

Job satisfaction of Malaysian registered nurses: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Atefi, Narges; Abdullah, Khatijah L; Wong, Li P

2016-01-01

Job satisfaction is an important factor in health care settings. Strong empirical evidence supports a causal relationship between job satisfaction, patient safety and quality of care. However, there have not been any studies exploring the job satisfaction of Malaysian nurses. The main purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to explore the factors related to feelings of job satisfaction as well as job dissatisfaction experienced by registered nurses in Malaysia. A convenient sample of 46 Malaysian nurses recruited from a large hospital (number of beds = 895) participated in the study. A total of seven focus group discussions were conducted with nurses from surgical, medical and critical care wards. A semi-structured interview guide was used to facilitate the interviews, which were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and checked. The transcripts were used as data and were analysed using a thematic approach. The study identified three main themes that influenced job satisfaction: (1) nurses' personal values and beliefs; (2) work environment factors and (3) motivation factors. Concerning the nurses' personal values and beliefs, the ability to help people made the nurses felt honoured and happy, which indirectly contributed to job satisfaction. For work environment factors, team cohesion, benefit and reward, working conditions play an important role in the nurses' job satisfaction. Motivation factors, namely, professional development and clinical autonomy contributed to job satisfaction. It is important for nurse leaders to provide more rewards, comfortable work environments and to understand issues that affect nurses' job satisfaction. Our findings highlight the importance of factors that can improve nurses' job satisfaction. The study provides basic information for hospital administrators in planning effective and efficient policies to improve nursing job satisfaction in order to increase the quality of patient care and decrease nursing turnover. © 2014 British Association of Critical Care Nurses.

Neurocognitive and Neuroplastic Mechanisms of Novel Clinical Signs in CRPS.

PubMed

Kuttikat, Anoop; Noreika, Valdas; Shenker, Nicholas; Chennu, Srivas; Bekinschtein, Tristan; Brown, Christopher Andrew

2016-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic, debilitating pain condition that usually arises after trauma to a limb, but its precise etiology remains elusive. Novel clinical signs based on body perceptual disturbances have been reported, but their pathophysiological mechanisms remain poorly understood. Investigators have used functional neuroimaging techniques (including MEG, EEG, fMRI, and PET) to study changes mainly within the somatosensory and motor cortices. Here, we provide a focused review of the neuroimaging research findings that have generated insights into the potential neurocognitive and neuroplastic mechanisms underlying perceptual disturbances in CRPS. Neuroimaging findings, particularly with regard to somatosensory processing, have been promising but limited by a number of technique-specific factors (such as the complexity of neuroimaging investigations, poor spatial resolution of EEG/MEG, and use of modeling procedures that do not draw causal inferences) and more general factors including small samples sizes and poorly characterized patients. These factors have led to an underappreciation of the potential heterogeneity of pathophysiology that may underlie variable clinical presentation in CRPS. Also, until now, neurological deficits have been predominantly investigated separately from perceptual and cognitive disturbances. Here, we highlight the need to identify neurocognitive phenotypes of patients with CRPS that are underpinned by causal explanations for perceptual disturbances. We suggest that a combination of larger cohorts, patient phenotyping, the use of both high temporal, and spatial resolution neuroimaging methods, and the identification of simplified biomarkers is likely to be the most fruitful approach to identifying neurocognitive phenotypes in CRPS. Based on our review, we explain how such phenotypes could be characterized in terms of hierarchical models of perception and corresponding disturbances in recurrent processing involving the somatosensory, salience and executive brain networks. We also draw attention to complementary neurological factors that may explain some CRPS symptoms, including the possibility of central neuroinflammation and neuronal atrophy, and how these phenomena may overlap but be partially separable from neurocognitive deficits.

Neurocognitive and Neuroplastic Mechanisms of Novel Clinical Signs in CRPS

PubMed Central

Kuttikat, Anoop; Noreika, Valdas; Shenker, Nicholas; Chennu, Srivas; Bekinschtein, Tristan; Brown, Christopher Andrew

2016-01-01

Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a chronic, debilitating pain condition that usually arises after trauma to a limb, but its precise etiology remains elusive. Novel clinical signs based on body perceptual disturbances have been reported, but their pathophysiological mechanisms remain poorly understood. Investigators have used functional neuroimaging techniques (including MEG, EEG, fMRI, and PET) to study changes mainly within the somatosensory and motor cortices. Here, we provide a focused review of the neuroimaging research findings that have generated insights into the potential neurocognitive and neuroplastic mechanisms underlying perceptual disturbances in CRPS. Neuroimaging findings, particularly with regard to somatosensory processing, have been promising but limited by a number of technique-specific factors (such as the complexity of neuroimaging investigations, poor spatial resolution of EEG/MEG, and use of modeling procedures that do not draw causal inferences) and more general factors including small samples sizes and poorly characterized patients. These factors have led to an underappreciation of the potential heterogeneity of pathophysiology that may underlie variable clinical presentation in CRPS. Also, until now, neurological deficits have been predominantly investigated separately from perceptual and cognitive disturbances. Here, we highlight the need to identify neurocognitive phenotypes of patients with CRPS that are underpinned by causal explanations for perceptual disturbances. We suggest that a combination of larger cohorts, patient phenotyping, the use of both high temporal, and spatial resolution neuroimaging methods, and the identification of simplified biomarkers is likely to be the most fruitful approach to identifying neurocognitive phenotypes in CRPS. Based on our review, we explain how such phenotypes could be characterized in terms of hierarchical models of perception and corresponding disturbances in recurrent processing involving the somatosensory, salience and executive brain networks. We also draw attention to complementary neurological factors that may explain some CRPS symptoms, including the possibility of central neuroinflammation and neuronal atrophy, and how these phenomena may overlap but be partially separable from neurocognitive deficits. PMID:26858626

UNRECOGNIZED OR POTENTIAL RISK FACTORS FOR CHILDHOOD CANCER

EPA Science Inventory

Traditional epidemiological studies suggest that the contribution of environmental agents to childhood cancer may be minor. However, epidemiological methods can only seldom identify causal factors associated with a relative risk of less than a factor of one and a half to two. App...

Drug- and Herb-Induced Liver Injury in Clinical and Translational Hepatology: Causality Assessment Methods, Quo Vadis?

PubMed Central

Eickhoff, Axel; Schulze, Johannes

2013-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and herb-induced liver injury (HILI) are typical diseases of clinical and translational hepatology. Their diagnosis is complex and requires an experienced clinician to translate basic science into clinical judgment and identify a valid causality algorithm. To prospectively assess causality starting on the day DILI or HILI is suspected, the best approach for physicians is to use the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale in its original or preferably its updated version. The CIOMS scale is validated, liver-specific, structured, and quantitative, providing final causality grades based on scores of specific items for individual patients. These items include latency period, decline in liver values after treatment cessation, risk factors, co-medication, alternative diagnoses, hepatotoxicity track record of the suspected product, and unintentional re-exposure. Provided causality is established as probable or highly probable, data of the CIOMS scale with all individual items, a short clinical report, and complete raw data should be transmitted to the regulatory agencies, manufacturers, expert panels, and possibly to the scientific community for further refinement of the causality evaluation in a setting of retrospective expert opinion. Good-quality case data combined with thorough CIOMS-based assessment as a standardized approach should avert subsequent necessity for other complex causality assessment methods that may have inter-rater problems because of poor-quality data. In the future, the CIOMS scale will continue to be the preferred tool to assess causality of DILI and HILI cases and should be used consistently, both prospectively by physicians, and retrospectively for subsequent expert opinion if needed. For comparability and international harmonization, all parties assessing causality in DILI and HILI cases should attempt this standardized approach using the updated CIOMS scale. PMID:26357608

Diversity of endophytic fungal community of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) and biological control of Crinipellis perniciosa, causal agent of Witches' Broom Disease

PubMed Central

2005-01-01

The basidiomycete fungus Crinipellis perniciosa (Stahel) Singer is the causal agent of Witches' Broom Disease of Cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) which is the main factor limiting cacao production in the Americas. Pod losses of up to 90% are experienced in affected areas as evidenced by the 50% drop in production in Bahia province, Brazil following the arrival of the C. perniciosa in the area in 1989. The disease has proven particularly difficult to control and many farmers in affected areas have given up cacao cultivation. In order to evaluate the potential of endophytes as a biological control agent of this phytopathogen, the endophytic fungal community of resistant and susceptible cacao plants as well as affected branches was studied between 2001 and 2002. The fungal community was identified by morphological traits and rDNA sequencing as belonging to the genera Acremonium, Blastomyces, Botryosphaeria, Cladosporium, Colletotrichum, Cordyceps, Diaporthe, Fusarium, Geotrichum, Gibberella, Gliocladium, Lasiodiplodia, Monilochoetes, Nectria, Pestalotiopsis, Phomopsis, Pleurotus, Pseudofusarium, Rhizopycnis, Syncephalastrum, Trichoderma, Verticillium and Xylaria. These fungi were evaluated both in vitro and in vivo by their ability to inhibit C. perniciosa. Among these, some were identified as potential antagonists, but only one fungus (Gliocladium catenulatum) reduced the incidence of Witches' Broom Disease in cacao seedlings to 70%. PMID:15951847

Oral squamous cell carcinoma; from an hypothesis about a virus, to concern about possible sexual transmission.

PubMed

Scully, Crispian

2002-04-01

Nearly two decades ago, we produced the first evidence for the presence of viral nucleic acids in oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) tissues, hypothesising that there may be a viral involvement in at least some OSCC. Subsequently, human papillomaviruses (HPV) in particular have been implicated in OSCC. Antibody responses to HPV are seen and HPV-DNA detected in tumors by us and many others, the virus being mainly HPV-16, the genotype associated with ano-genital cancer. HPV are seen by in situ hybridisation only in tumour and premalignant tissue but not in surrounding normal mucosa suggesting HPV has a causal relationship. HPV may also be integrated in the host genome, further suggesting a causal role. Studies of patients with OSCC have suggested possible sexual transmission of HPV. Recent studies have indicated that HPV may be aetiologically important particularly in some types of oropharyngeal cancer, at least in tonsillar carcinogenesis, and may represent an alternative pathway in carcinogenesis to the established factors of tobacco and alcohol. We have come a very long way in the two decades since our first suggestion of a viral aetiopathogenesis was greeted with incredulity, and data from on-going studies by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, Johns Hopkins Oncology Center and others are eagerly awaited.

Diversity of endophytic fungal community of cacao (Theobroma cacao L.) and biological control of Crinipellis perniciosa, causal agent of Witches' Broom Disease.

PubMed

Rubini, Marciano R; Silva-Ribeiro, Rute T; Pomella, Alan W V; Maki, Cristina S; Araújo, Welington L; Dos Santos, Deise R; Azevedo, João L

2005-01-01

The basidiomycete fungus Crinipellis perniciosa (Stahel) Singer is the causal agent of Witches' Broom Disease of Cacao (Theobromacacao L.) which is the main factor limiting cacao production in the Americas. Pod losses of up to 90% are experienced in affected areas as evidenced by the 50% drop in production in Bahia province, Brazil following the arrival of the C. perniciosa in the area in 1989. The disease has proven particularly difficult to control and many farmers in affected areas have given up cacao cultivation. In order to evaluate the potential of endophytes as a biological control agent of this phytopathogen, the endophytic fungal community of resistant and susceptible cacao plants as well as affected branches was studied between 2001 and 2002. The fungal community was identified by morphological traits and rDNA sequencing as belonging to the genera Acremonium, Blastomyces, Botryosphaeria, Cladosporium, Colletotrichum, Cordyceps, Diaporthe, Fusarium, Geotrichum, Gibberella, Gliocladium, Lasiodiplodia, Monilochoetes, Nectria, Pestalotiopsis, Phomopsis, Pleurotus, Pseudofusarium, Rhizopycnis, Syncephalastrum, Trichoderma, Verticillium and Xylaria. These fungi were evaluated both in vitro and in vivo by their ability to inhibit C. perniciosa. Among these, some were identified as potential antagonists, but only one fungus (Gliocladium catenulatum) reduced the incidence of Witches' Broom Disease in cacao seedlings to 70%.

The case for aflatoxins in the causal chain of gallbladder cancer.

PubMed

Foerster, Claudia; Koshiol, Jill; Guerrero, Ariel R; Kogan, Marcelo J; Ferreccio, Catterina

2016-01-01

Chronic aflatoxin exposure has long been related to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Recently, its association with gallbladder cancer (GBC) was postulated. Here we present the data supporting this hypothesis in Chile, the country with the highest GBC mortality worldwide with age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of 10.3 in women and 5.04 in men. The highest GBC rates occur in Southern Chile (ASMR=18), characterized by: high Amerindian ancestry, associated with high bile acid synthesis and gallstones; high poverty and high cereal agriculture, both associated with aflatoxin exposure. Aflatoxins have been detected in imported and locally grown foods items. We estimated population dietary exposure ranging from 0.25 to 35.0 ng/kg-body weight/day. The only report on human exposure in Chile found significantly more aflatoxin biomarkers in GBC than in controls (Odds Ratio=13.0). The hypothesis of aflatoxin-GBC causal link in the Chilean population is supported by: genetically-determined rapid cholesterol excretion and high gallstones prevalence (49.4%); low prevalence of HCC (ASMR=4.9) and low HBV infection (0.15%) the main co-factor of aflatoxins in HCC risk. If the association between aflatoxins and GBC were confirmed, public health interventions based on food regulation could have a substantial public health impact. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

PubMed

Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-03-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system

PubMed Central

Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-01-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion. PMID:29657804

Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

PubMed

Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2012-06-01

We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-05-01

The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana's development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

Education and health knowledge: evidence from UK compulsory schooling reform.

PubMed

Johnston, David W; Lordan, Grace; Shields, Michael A; Suziedelyte, Agne

2015-02-01

We investigate if there is a causal link between education and health knowledge using data from the 1984/85 and 1991/92 waves of the UK Health and Lifestyle Survey (HALS). Uniquely, the survey asks respondents what they think are the main causes of ten common health conditions, and we compare these answers to those given by medical professionals to form an index of health knowledge. For causal identification we use increases in the UK minimum school leaving age in 1947 (from 14 to 15) and 1972 (from 15 to 16) to provide exogenous variation in education. These reforms predominantly induced adolescents who would have left school to stay for one additionally mandated year. OLS estimates suggest that education significantly increases health knowledge, with a one-year increase in schooling increasing the health knowledge index by 15% of a standard deviation. In contrast, estimates from instrumental-variable models show that increased schooling due to the education reforms did not significantly affect health knowledge. This main result is robust to numerous specification tests and alternative formulations of the health knowledge index. Further research is required to determine whether there is also no causal link between higher levels of education - such as post-school qualifications - and health knowledge. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causality in medicine: the case of tumours and viruses.

PubMed Central

Vonka, V

2000-01-01

Clarification of the aetiology of chronic human diseases such as atherosclerosis or cancer is one of the dominant topics in contemporary medical research. It is believed that identification of the causal factors will enable more efficient prevention and diagnosis of these diseases and, in some instances, also permit more effective therapy. The task is difficult because of the multistep and multifactorial origin of these diseases. A special case in contemporary aetiological studies is definition of the role of viruses in the pathogenesis of human cancer. Virus-associated cancer develops only in a small minority of infected subjects, which implies that, if the virus does play a role in the pathogenesis of the malignancy, other factors must also be involved. In this paper the author attempts to review the present methodological approaches to aetiological studies of chronic diseases, discusses the role of criteria for identifying causal relationships and proposes guidelines that might help to determine the role of viruses in human cancer. PMID:11205344

Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keselman, Alla

2003-11-01

Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

Sibling influences on childhood development.

PubMed

Dunn, J

1988-03-01

To summarize the main points concerning sibling influence: 1. That siblings play a causal role in the development of aggressive behavior, in children's style of conflict behavior and in cooperative fantasy play is strongly suggested by recent research. 2. Marked problems in the sibling relationship are indicative of other problems, but a causal role for siblings is not established, other than for aggressive behavior. 3. Family factors are closely involved in the quality of sibling relationships--and thus in sibling influence, namely differential parental behavior, and the emotional climate of the family. That is, it is important not to consider the sibling relationship in isolation from other family relationships. 4. Studies of families under stress indicate heightened importance of these family factors. 5. It is likely, but not yet established, that later-born siblings are influenced by first-born in socio-cognitive development and gender identity. 6. Finally it should be noted that an important theme in current research on siblings is a concern with the question of why siblings develop to be so different from one another. It has been shown that the major source of environmental influence on the development of individual differences is within-family rather than between-family differences in experience (Plomin & Daniels, 1987). The different experiences each sibling may have within their relationship is one potential source of such differential environmental influence. Thus documenting the influence of siblings upon each other takes on added significance: By clarifying the extent and nature of this influence we will gain not only useful clinical information but illumination on a developmental principle of very general significance.

Your visual system provides all the information you need to make moral judgments about generic visual events.

PubMed

De Freitas, Julian; Alvarez, George A

2018-05-28

To what extent are people's moral judgments susceptible to subtle factors of which they are unaware? Here we show that we can change people's moral judgments outside of their awareness by subtly biasing perceived causality. Specifically, we used subtle visual manipulations to create visual illusions of causality in morally relevant scenarios, and this systematically changed people's moral judgments. After demonstrating the basic effect using simple displays involving an ambiguous car collision that ends up injuring a person (E1), we show that the effect is sensitive on the millisecond timescale to manipulations of task-irrelevant factors that are known to affect perceived causality, including the duration (E2a) and asynchrony (E2b) of specific task-irrelevant contextual factors in the display. We then conceptually replicate the effect using a different paradigm (E3a), and also show that we can eliminate the effect by interfering with motion processing (E3b). Finally, we show that the effect generalizes across different kinds of moral judgments (E3c). Combined, these studies show that obligatory, abstract inferences made by the visual system influence moral judgments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The social determinants of oral health: new approaches to conceptualizing and researching complex causal networks.

PubMed

Newton, J Timothy; Bower, Elizabeth J

2005-02-01

Oral epidemiological research into the social determinants of oral health has been limited by the absence of a theoretical framework which reflects the complexity of real life social processes and the network of causal pathways between social structure and oral health and disease. In the absence of such a framework, social determinants are treated as isolated risk factors, attributable to the individual, having a direct impact on oral health. There is little sense of how such factors interrelate over time and place and the pathways between the factors and oral health. Features of social life which impact on individuals' oral health but are not reducible to the individual remain under-researched. A conceptual framework informing mainstream epidemiological research into the social determinants of health is applied to oral epidemiology. The framework suggests complex causal pathways between social structure and health via interlinking material, psychosocial and behavioural pathways. Methodological implications for oral epidemiological research informed by the framework, such as the use of multilevel modelling, path analysis and structural equation modelling, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods, and collaborative research, are discussed. Copyright Blackwell Munksgaard, 2005.

Acausal measurement-based quantum computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morimae, Tomoyuki

2014-07-01

In measurement-based quantum computing, there is a natural "causal cone" among qubits of the resource state, since the measurement angle on a qubit has to depend on previous measurement results in order to correct the effect of by-product operators. If we respect the no-signaling principle, by-product operators cannot be avoided. Here we study the possibility of acausal measurement-based quantum computing by using the process matrix framework [Oreshkov, Costa, and Brukner, Nat. Commun. 3, 1092 (2012), 10.1038/ncomms2076]. We construct a resource process matrix for acausal measurement-based quantum computing restricting local operations to projective measurements. The resource process matrix is an analog of the resource state of the standard causal measurement-based quantum computing. We find that if we restrict local operations to projective measurements the resource process matrix is (up to a normalization factor and trivial ancilla qubits) equivalent to the decorated graph state created from the graph state of the corresponding causal measurement-based quantum computing. We also show that it is possible to consider a causal game whose causal inequality is violated by acausal measurement-based quantum computing.

Young adults' reactions to infant crying.

PubMed

Cohen-Bendahan, C C C; van Doornen, L J P; de Weerth, C

2014-02-01

An infant's optimal development is determined to a great extent by the adequate and sensitive responses of the caregiver. The adequacy and sensitivity of a reaction to an infant in distress (i.e. crying) will partly depend on the causal attributions of the crying and on the individual's sympathy for the infant. Being female, prior caring experiences, and multiparity have shown to be linked to more sympathetic, tolerant and less hostile emotional responses to crying. However, little is known about other factors explaining inexperienced future caregivers' reactions to infant crying. The present paper's goal is to shed more light on the subject by looking at how personality factors, caregiving interest, sex, promptness of the reaction, and gender identity are related to emotional reactions and causal attributions to crying in a population of young adults without children. One hundred and ninety-one childless university students participated (126 females; ages 18-35 years). The participants completed questionnaires on personality, gender identity and caregiving interest, and listened to an audio sample of an infant crying, reporting their emotions and their causal attributions to the crying. The results showed that experiencing anger was associated with more child-blaming attributions to the crying, while quickness of response and feelings of sympathy predicted more child-oriented attributions. The latter was stronger in males. Explicit care interest decreased child-blaming causal attributions more for men than for the women. Interestingly, solely in the females' personality factors neuroticism and conscientiousness played a role in child blaming attributions together with anger. These findings suggest that the motives that young adults attribute to a crying infant depend in males on the emotions triggered by the crying, responsiveness and care interest. While in females, emotions, responsiveness and personality affect the causal attribution to the crying. Future research is needed in order to determine whether these attributions are also linked to young adults' actual behaviour towards a crying infant. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Are implicit causality pronoun resolution biases consistent across languages and cultures?

PubMed

Hartshorne, Joshua K; Sudo, Yasutada; Uruwashi, Miki

2013-01-01

The referent of a nonreflexive pronoun depends on context, but the nature of these contextual restrictions is controversial. For instance, in causal dependent clauses, the preferred referent of a pronoun varies systematically with the verb in the main clause (Sally frightens Mary because she … vs. Sally loves Mary because she …). Several theories claim that verbs with similar meanings across languages should show similar pronoun resolution effects, but these claims run contrary to recent analyses on which much of linguistic and nonlinguistic cognition is susceptible to cross-cultural variation, and in fact there is little data in the literature to decide the question one way or another. Analysis of data in eight languages representing four historically unrelated language families reveals consistent pronoun resolution biases for emotion verbs, suggesting that the information upon which implicit causality pronoun resolution biases are derived is stable across languages and cultures.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and cardiometabolic disease: improving causal inference to inform practice.

PubMed

Koenen, K C; Sumner, J A; Gilsanz, P; Glymour, M M; Ratanatharathorn, A; Rimm, E B; Roberts, A L; Winning, A; Kubzansky, L D

2017-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been declared 'a life sentence' based on evidence that the disorder leads to a host of physical health problems. Some of the strongest empirical research - in terms of methodology and findings - has shown that PTSD predicts higher risk of cardiometabolic diseases, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Despite mounting evidence, PTSD is not currently acknowledged as a risk factor by cardiovascular or endocrinological medicine. This view is unlikely to change absent compelling evidence that PTSD causally contributes to cardiometabolic disease. This review suggests that with developments in methods for epidemiological research and the rapidly expanding knowledge of the behavioral and biological effects of PTSD the field is poised to provide more definitive answers to questions of causality. First, we discuss methods to improve causal inference using the observational data most often used in studies of PTSD and health, with particular reference to issues of temporality and confounding. Second, we consider recent work linking PTSD with specific behaviors and biological processes, and evaluate whether these may plausibly serve as mechanisms by which PTSD leads to cardiometabolic disease. Third, we evaluate how looking more comprehensively into the PTSD phenotype provides insight into whether specific aspects of PTSD phenomenology are particularly relevant to cardiometabolic disease. Finally, we discuss new areas of research that are feasible and could enhance understanding of the PTSD-cardiometabolic relationship, such as testing whether treatment of PTSD can halt or even reverse the cardiometabolic risk factors causally related to CVD and T2D.

Efficient and accurate causal inference with hidden confounders from genome-transcriptome variation data

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mapping gene expression as a quantitative trait using whole genome-sequencing and transcriptome analysis allows to discover the functional consequences of genetic variation. We developed a novel method and ultra-fast software Findr for higly accurate causal inference between gene expression traits using cis-regulatory DNA variations as causal anchors, which improves current methods by taking into consideration hidden confounders and weak regulations. Findr outperformed existing methods on the DREAM5 Systems Genetics challenge and on the prediction of microRNA and transcription factor targets in human lymphoblastoid cells, while being nearly a million times faster. Findr is publicly available at https://github.com/lingfeiwang/findr. PMID:28821014

Obesity, metabolic factors and risk of different histological types of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study

PubMed Central

Carreras-Torres, Robert; Johansson, Mattias; Haycock, Philip C.; Wade, Kaitlin H.; Relton, Caroline L.; Martin, Richard M.; Davey Smith, George; Albanes, Demetrius; Aldrich, Melinda C.; Andrew, Angeline; Bickeböller, Heike; Bojesen, Stig E.; Brunnström, Hans; Manjer, Jonas; Brüske, Irene; Caporaso, Neil E.; Chen, Chu; Christiani, David C.; Christian, W. Jay; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Duell, Eric J.; Goodman, Gary E.; Grankvist, Kjell; Haugen, Aage; Hong, Yun-Chul; Johansson, Mikael B.; Lam, Stephen; Landi, Maria Teresa; Lazarus, Philip; Le Marchand, Loïc; Liu, Geoffrey; Melander, Olle; Rennert, Gad; Risch, Angela; Haura, Eric B.; Scelo, Ghislaine; Zaridze, David; Mukeriya, Anush; Savić, Milan; Lissowska, Jolanta; Swiatkowska, Beata; Janout, Vladimir; Holcatova, Ivana; Mates, Dana; Shen, Hongbing; Tardon, Adonina; Woll, Penella; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Jian-Min; Hung, Rayjean J.; Amos, Christopher I.; Brennan, Paul

2017-01-01

Background Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior. PMID:28594918

Intoxicated aggression: Do alcohol and stimulants cause dose-related aggression? A review.

PubMed

Kuypers, Kpc; Verkes, R J; van den Brink, W; van Amsterdam, Jgc; Ramaekers, J G

2018-06-22

Violence and drug use are significant public health challenges that are strongly linked. It is known that alcohol plays a major role in the causation of unnatural deaths and that stimulants like cocaine and amphetamine are often implicated in aggressive acts or violence. However, a clear causal relationship between these substances and aggression, and more specifically a blood concentration threshold at which intoxicated aggression emerges is lacking. In case of a crime and subsequent law enforcement, knowledge about dose-response relationships could be of pivotal importance when evaluating the role of alcohol and drugs in aggressive offences. The present review aimed to determine whether there is a causal relation between intoxication with these psychoactive substances and aggression, and to define blood concentration thresholds above which these substances elicit aggression. Empirical articles published between 2013 and 2017 and review papers containing the predefined search strings were identified through searches in the PubMed and Embase databases and additional reference list searches. The complete search query yielded 1578 publications. Initially all articles were manually screened by title and abstract. Articles with irrelevant titles, given the selected search terms and review aims were discarded. Remaining articles were carefully studied and those that did not comply with the main objectives of this review were discarded. At the end of this process, 167 titles were found eligible for review. While placebo-controlled experimental studies clearly showed a causal link between alcohol and aggression, it is evident that such a link has not yet been established for cocaine and amphetamines. In case of alcohol, it is clear that there are various individual and contextual factors that may contribute to the occurrence of an aggressive act during intoxication. A clear threshold blood alcohol concentration has not been defined yet for alcohol, but a statistically significant increase of aggression has been demonstrated at a dose of 0.75 g/kg and higher. Future studies into intoxicated aggression should include multiple doses of alcohol and stimulants and take into account individual and contextual factors. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Beyond Scientism and Skepticism: An Integrative Approach to Global Mental Health

PubMed Central

Stein, Dan J.; Illes, Judy

2015-01-01

The global burden of disorders has shifted from infectious disease to non-communicable diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Whereas infectious disease can sometimes be combated by targeting single causal mechanisms, such as prevention of contact-spread illness by handwashing, in the case of mental disorders multiple causal mechanisms are typically relevant. The emergent field of global mental health has emphasized the magnitude of the treatment gap, particularly in the low- and middle-income world and has paid particular attention to upstream causal factors, for example, poverty, inequality, and gender discrimination in the pathogenesis of mental disorders. However, this field has also been criticized for relying erroneously on Western paradigms of mental illness, which may not be relevant or appropriate to the low- and middle-income context. Here, it is important to steer a path between scientism and skepticism. Scientism regards mental disorders as essential categories, and takes a covering law approach to causality; skepticism regards mental disorders as merely social constructions and emphasizes the role of political power in causal relations. We propose an integrative model that emphasizes the contribution of a broad range of causal mechanisms operating at biological and societal levels to mental disorders and the consequent importance of broad spectrum and multipronged approaches to intervention. PMID:26635641

Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness.

PubMed

Boruchovitch, E; Mednick, B R

2000-10-01

At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky). The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

Globally conditioned Granger causality in brain–brain and brain–heart interactions: a combined heart rate variability/ultra-high-field (7 T) functional magnetic resonance imaging study

PubMed Central

Passamonti, Luca; Wald, Lawrence L.; Barbieri, Riccardo

2016-01-01

The causal, directed interactions between brain regions at rest (brain–brain networks) and between resting-state brain activity and autonomic nervous system (ANS) outflow (brain–heart links) have not been completely elucidated. We collected 7 T resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data with simultaneous respiration and heartbeat recordings in nine healthy volunteers to investigate (i) the causal interactions between cortical and subcortical brain regions at rest and (ii) the causal interactions between resting-state brain activity and the ANS as quantified through a probabilistic, point-process-based heartbeat model which generates dynamical estimates for sympathetic and parasympathetic activity as well as sympathovagal balance. Given the high amount of information shared between brain-derived signals, we compared the results of traditional bivariate Granger causality (GC) with a globally conditioned approach which evaluated the additional influence of each brain region on the causal target while factoring out effects concomitantly mediated by other brain regions. The bivariate approach resulted in a large number of possibly spurious causal brain–brain links, while, using the globally conditioned approach, we demonstrated the existence of significant selective causal links between cortical/subcortical brain regions and sympathetic and parasympathetic modulation as well as sympathovagal balance. In particular, we demonstrated a causal role of the amygdala, hypothalamus, brainstem and, among others, medial, middle and superior frontal gyri, superior temporal pole, paracentral lobule and cerebellar regions in modulating the so-called central autonomic network (CAN). In summary, we show that, provided proper conditioning is employed to eliminate spurious causalities, ultra-high-field functional imaging coupled with physiological signal acquisition and GC analysis is able to quantify directed brain–brain and brain–heart interactions reflecting central modulation of ANS outflow. PMID:27044985

Using Propensity Score Methods to Approximate Factorial Experimental Designs to Analyze the Relationship between Two Variables and an Outcome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dong, Nianbo

2015-01-01

Researchers have become increasingly interested in programs' main and interaction effects of two variables (A and B, e.g., two treatment variables or one treatment variable and one moderator) on outcomes. A challenge for estimating main and interaction effects is to eliminate selection bias across A-by-B groups. I introduce Rubin's causal model to…

Spectral factorization of wavefields and wave operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickett, James Edward

Spectral factorization is the problem of finding a minimum-phase function with a given power spectrum. Minimum phase functions have the property that they are causal with a causal (stable) inverse. In this thesis, I factor multidimensional systems into their minimum-phase components. Helical boundary conditions resolve any ambiguities over causality, allowing me to factor multi-dimensional systems with conventional one-dimensional spectral factorization algorithms. In the first part, I factor passive seismic wavefields recorded in two-dimensional spatial arrays. The result provides an estimate of the acoustic impulse response of the medium that has higher bandwidth than autocorrelation-derived estimates. Also, the function's minimum-phase nature mimics the physics of the system better than the zero-phase autocorrelation model. I demonstrate this on helioseismic data recorded by the satellite-based Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument, and shallow seismic data recorded at Long Beach, California. In the second part of this thesis, I take advantage of the stable-inverse property of minimum-phase functions to solve wave-equation partial differential equations. By factoring multi-dimensional finite-difference stencils into minimum-phase components, I can invert them efficiently, facilitating rapid implicit extrapolation without the azimuthal anisotropy that is observed with splitting approximations. The final part of this thesis describes how to calculate diagonal weighting functions that approximate the combined operation of seismic modeling and migration. These weighting functions capture the effects of irregular subsurface illumination, which can be the result of either the surface-recording geometry, or focusing and defocusing of the seismic wavefield as it propagates through the earth. Since they are diagonal, they can be easily both factored and inverted to compensate for uneven subsurface illumination in migrated images. Experimental results show that applying these weighting functions after migration leads to significantly improved estimates of seismic reflectivity.

Environmental risk factors for cancers of the brain and nervous system: the use of ecological data to generate hypotheses.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Hannam, Kimberly; Buchan, Iain

2013-05-01

There is a public health need to balance timely generation of hypotheses with cautious causal inference. For rare cancers this is particularly challenging because standard epidemiological study designs may not be able to elucidate causal factors in an early period of newly emerging risks. Alternative methodologies need to be considered for generating and shaping hypotheses prior to definitive investigation. To evaluate whether open-access databases can be used to explore links between potential risk factors and cancers at an ecological level, using the case study of brain and nervous system cancers as an example. National age-adjusted cancer incidence rates were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2008 resource and combined with data from the United Nations Development Report and the World Bank list of development indicators. Data were analysed using multivariate regression models. Cancer rates, potential confounders and environmental risk factors were available for 165 of 208 countries. 2008 national incidences of brain and nervous system cancers were associated with continent, gross national income in 2008 and Human Development Index Score. The only exogenous risk factor consistently associated with higher incidence was the penetration rate of mobile/cellular telecommunications subscriptions, although other factors were highlighted. According to these ecological results the latency period is at least 11-12 years, but probably more than 20 years. Missing data on cancer incidence and for other potential risk factors prohibit more detailed investigation of exposure-response associations and/or explore other hypotheses. Readily available ecological data may be underused, particularly for the study of risk factors for rare diseases and those with long latencies. The results of ecological analyses in general should not be overinterpreted in causal inference, but equally they should not be ignored where alternative signals of aetiology are lacking.

Are Hill's criteria for causality satisfied for vitamin D and periodontal disease?

PubMed

Grant, William B; Boucher, Barbara J

2010-01-01

There is mounting evidence that periodontal disease (PD) is linked to low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in addition to recognized risk factors like diet and smoking. This paper reviews this evidence using Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Evidence for strength of association, consistency, cohesion and 'dose-effects' [biological 'gradients'] include strong inverse correlations between serum 25(OH) and PD cross-sectionally and that PD is consistently more prevalent in darker vs. lighter skinned people and increases at higher latitudes with analogy for gingivitis and for disorders associated with PD whose risks also increase with hypovitaminosis D. Evidence for plausibility includes that vitamin D increases calcium absorption and protects bone strength; induces formation of cathelicidin and other defensins that combat bacterial infection; reduces tissue production of destructive matrix metalloproteinases actively associated with PD and that prevalence of PD varies with common vitamin D receptor polymorphisms. Experimental evidence from limited supplementation studies [using calcium and vitamin D] shows that supplementation reduces tooth loss. Thus, existing evidence for hypovitaminosis D as a risk factor for PD to date meets Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Further experimental evidence for effectiveness and temporality, preferably from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation [adjusting for other PD risk factors including diet and smoking to reduce confounding] are necessary to confirm causality. If confirmed, dentists and periodontists could perform a valuable service to their patients by discussing the importance of adequate vitamin D status and how to avoid deficiency.

Are Hill's criteria for causality satisfied for vitamin D and periodontal disease?

PubMed Central

Boucher, Barbara J

2010-01-01

There is mounting evidence that periodontal disease (PD) is linked to low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in addition to recognized risk factors like diet and smoking. This paper reviews this evidence using Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Evidence for strength of association, consistency, cohesion and ‘dose-effects’ [biological ‘gradients’] include strong inverse correlations between serum 25(OH) and PD cross-sectionally and that PD is consistently more prevalent in darker vs. lighter skinned people and increases at higher latitudes with analogy for gingivitis and for disorders associated with PD whose risks also increase with hypovitaminosis D. Evidence for plausibility includes that vitamin D increases calcium absorption and protects bone strength; induces formation of cathelicidin and other defensins that combat bacterial infection; reduces tissue production of destructive matrix metalloproteinases actively associated with PD and that prevalence of PD varies with common vitamin D receptor polymorphisms. Experimental evidence from limited supplementation studies [using calcium and vitamin D] shows that supplementation reduces tooth loss. Thus, existing evidence for hypovitaminosis D as a risk factor for PD to date meets Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Further experimental evidence for effectiveness and temporality, preferably from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation [adjusting for other PD risk factors including diet and smoking to reduce confounding] are necessary to confirm causality. If confirmed, dentists and periodontists could perform a valuable service to their patients by discussing the importance of adequate vitamin D status and how to avoid deficiency. PMID:21547146

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2015-01-01

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Risk and protective factors for the development of childhood asthma.

PubMed

Ding, Guodong; Ji, Ruoxu; Bao, Yixiao

2015-03-01

Childhood asthma prevalence worldwide has been increasing markedly over several decades. Various theories have been proposed to account for this alarming trend. The disease has a broad spectrum of potential determinants ranging from genetics to lifestyle and environmental factors. Epidemiological observations have demonstrated that several important lifestyle and environmental factors including obesity, urban living, dietary patterns such as food low in antioxidants and fast food, non-breastfeeding, gut flora imbalance, cigarette smoking, air pollution, and viral infection are associated with asthma exacerbations in children. However, only environmental tobacco smoke has been associated with the development of asthma. Despite epidemiological studies indicating that many other factors are probably associated with the development of asthma, the relationships are not considered causal due to the inadequate evidence and inconsistent results from recent studies. This may highlight that sufficient data and exact mechanisms of causality are still in need of further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occupational Factors, Fatigue, and Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Purpose: Briefly identify the epidemiological evidence, propose pertinent mechanisms, and discuss physical therapy practice as well as research implications of a causal association between occupational factors and cardiovascular disease. Summary of Key Points: There is evidence that occupational metabolic demands and work organizations characterized by reduced worker control are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. It is biologically plausible that these two factors interact to create a preclinical, intermediate state of fatigue (burnout) that is a critical component in the causal path from occupational factors to CVD. Physical therapists are uniquely qualified to contribute to an understanding of these mechanisms and their resultant implications for work organization, rehabilitation, and health promotion. Statement of Recommendations: Physical therapists engaged in ergonomic job analysis should consider work related metabolic demands, worker control, and fatigue in their assessment of risk for injury and illness, in recommendations for return to work, and in the prescription of health promotion leisure time physical activity PMID:20467535

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) and hypertension: Pathogenic mechanisms and possible therapeutic approaches

PubMed Central

Zhang, Wang

2012-01-01

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS), a chronic condition characterized by collapse of the pharynx during sleep, has been increasingly recognized as a health issue of growing importance over the last decade. Recently emerging evidence suggests that there is a causal link between OSAS and hypertension, and hypertension represents an independent risk factor in OSAS patients. However, the pathophysiological basis for patients with OSAS having an increased risk for hypertension remains to be elucidated. The main acute physiological outcomes of OSAS are intermittent hypoxia, intrapleural pressure changes, and arousal from sleep, which might induce endothelial dysfunction, sympathetic activation, renin–angiotensin–aldosterone system activation, lipid metabolism dysfunction, and increased oxidative stress. This brief review focuses on the current understanding of the complex association between OSAS and hypertension. PMID:23009224

Gut Microbiota: A Contributing Factor to Obesity

PubMed Central

Harakeh, Steve M.; Khan, Imran; Kumosani, Taha; Barbour, Elie; Almasaudi, Saad B.; Bahijri, Suhad M.; Alfadul, Sulaiman M.; Ajabnoor, Ghada M. A.; Azhar, Esam I.

2016-01-01

Obesity, a global epidemic of the modern era, is a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes. The pervasiveness of obesity and overweight in both developed as well as developing populations is on the rise and placing a huge burden on health and economic resources. Consequently, research to control this emerging epidemic is of utmost importance. Recently, host interactions with their resident gut microbiota (GM) have been reported to be involved in the pathogenesis of many metabolic diseases, including obesity, diabetes, and CVD. Around 1014 microorganisms reside within the lower human intestine and many of these 1014 microorganisms have developed mutualistic or commensal associations with the host and actively involved in many physiological processes of the host. However, dysbiosis (altered gut microbial composition) with other predisposing genetic and environmental factors, may contribute to host metabolic disorders resulting in many ailments. Therefore, delineating the role of GM as a contributing factor to obesity is the main objective of this review. Obesity research, as a field is expanding rapidly due to major advances in nutrigenomics, metabolomics, RNA silencing, epigenetics, and other disciplines that may result in the emergence of new technologies and methods to better interpret causal relationships between microbiota and obesity. PMID:27625997

Risk factors for fishermen's health and safety in Greece.

PubMed

Frantzeskou, Elpida; Kastania, Anastasia N; Riza, Elena; Jensen, Olaf C; Linos, Athena

2012-01-01

This is, to the best of our knowledge, the first occupational health study in Greek fishing. The aim of the study is to determine the risks for health and safety in Greek fisheries workers by exploring their health status and the health risk factors present in their occupational environment, thus providing a current baseline for further research in the future and for documentation of the needs for prevention. A questionnaire pilot study was carried out in a random sample of 100 Greek fishermen. Twenty-eight per cent (28%) had experienced at least one injury, of which half caused more than one day absence, while 14% had a near drowning experience. The health risks factors studied include excessive weight, cardiovascular incidents and dermatological, musculoskeletal, respiratory, hearing, stress, and anxiety problems. The occupational health risk factors include alcohol, fatty food consumption, smoking, and lack of physical exercise. The health effects observed are causally related to diet, smoking, and exercise, which in turn relate to the specific working conditions and culture in small-scale fishing that need to be taken into consideration in prevention programmes. The results are comparable with international fisheries experience, mainly from Poland, Denmark, and Turkey.

Differential effect of extracellular matrix derived from papillary and reticular fibroblasts on epidermal development in vitro.

PubMed

Janson, David; Rietveld, Marion; Mahé, Christian; Saintigny, Gaëlle; El Ghalbzouri, Abdoelwaheb

2017-06-01

Papillary and reticular fibroblasts have different effects on keratinocyte proliferation and differentiation. The aim of this study was to investigate whether these effects are caused by differential secretion of soluble factors or by differential generation of extracellular matrix from papillary and reticular fibroblasts. To study the effect of soluble factors, keratinocyte monolayer cultures were grown in papillary or reticular fibroblast-conditioned medium. To study the effect of extracellular matrix, keratinocytes were grown on papillary or reticular-derived matrix. Conditioned medium from papillary or reticular fibroblasts did not differentially affect keratinocyte viability or epidermal development. However, keratinocyte viability was increased when grown on matrix derived from papillary, compared with reticular, fibroblasts. In addition, the longevity of the epidermis was increased when cultured on papillary fibroblast-derived matrix skin equivalents compared with reticular-derived matrix skin equivalents. The findings indicate that the matrix secreted by papillary and reticular fibroblasts is the main causal factor to account for the differences in keratinocyte growth and viability observed in our study. Differences in response to soluble factors between both populations were less significant. Matrix components specific to the papillary dermis may account for the preferential growth of keratinocytes on papillary dermis.

A personal 35 year perspective on Gilles de la Tourette syndrome: assessment, investigations, and management.

PubMed

Robertson, Mary M

2015-01-01

After having examined the definition, clinical phenomenology, comorbidity, psychopathology, and phenotypes in the first paper of this Series, here I discuss the assessment, including neuropsychology, and the effects of Gilles de la Tourette syndrome with studies showing that the quality of life of patients with Tourette's syndrome is reduced and that there is a substantial burden on the family. In this paper, I review my local and collaborative studies investigating causal factors (including genetic vulnerability, prenatal and perinatal difficulties, and neuro-immunological factors). I also present my studies on neuro-imaging, electro-encephalograms, and other special investigations, which are helpful in their own right or to exclude other conditions. Finally, I also review our studies on treatment including medications, transcranial magnetic stimulation, biofeedback, target-specific botulinum toxin injections, biofeedback and, in severe refractory adults, psychosurgery and deep brain stimulation. This Review summarises and highlights selected main findings from my clinic (initially The National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery Queen Square and University College London, UK, and, subsequently, at St George's Hospital, London, UK), and several collaborations since 1980. As in Part 1 of this Series, I address the main controversies in the fields and the research of other groups, and I make suggestions for future research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Characterization of Campylobacter jejuni samples coming form poultry meat and feces].

PubMed

Gutiérrez, Sindy; Orellana, Daniel; Martínez, Claudio; García Mena, Verónica

2017-12-01

Background Campylobacter jejuni is one of the main causal agents of food borne diseases. Infections with this pathogen are mainly caused by chicken meat consumption. Aim To characterize antibiotic resistance and virulence factors in C. jejuni strains obtained from chicken meat and poultry feces in Central Chile. Material and Methods The presence of C. jejuni in 30 meat and 40 feces samples from poultry was studied. From these samples, we obtained 40 strains which were characterized at the molecular level for the presence of 16 genes involved in virulence using PCR. In parallel, antibiotic resistance for ciprofloxacin, nalidixic acid, tetracycline, erythromycin, azithromycin, chloramphenicol y ampicillin was analyzed. Results Twenty and 63% of feces and chicken meat samples were positive for C. jejuni, respectively. Moreover, a high percentage of strains showed antibiotic resistance, where 27% of strains were resistant to all tested antibiotics, except for azithromycin. Finally, 10% of the strains coming from feces contained 14 out of 16 virulence genes evaluated. Only 23% of the strains did not contain any of these genes. Conclusions A high percentage of feces and chicken meat samples are contaminated with C. jejuni. Moreover, these strains show a high genetic and phenotypic diversity represented by their antibiotic resistance profiles and the presence of virulence factors.

Investigating genetic correlations and causal effects between caffeine consumption and sleep behaviours.

PubMed

Treur, Jorien L; Gibson, Mark; Taylor, Amy E; Rogers, Peter J; Munafò, Marcus R

2018-04-22

Observationally, higher caffeine consumption is associated with poorer sleep and insomnia. We investigated whether these associations are a result of shared genetic risk factors and/or (possibly bidirectional) causal effects. Summary-level data were available from genome-wide association studies on caffeine intake (n = 91 462), plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate (n = 9876), sleep duration and chronotype (being a "morning" versus an "evening" person) (n = 128 266), and insomnia complaints (n = 113 006). First, genetic correlations were calculated, reflecting the extent to which genetic variants influencing caffeine consumption and those influencing sleep overlap. Next, causal effects were estimated with bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization. This approach utilizes the genetic variants most robustly associated with an exposure variable as an "instrument" to test causal effects. Estimates from individual variants were combined using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis, weighted median regression and MR-Egger regression. We found no clear evidence for a genetic correlation between caffeine intake and sleep duration (rg = 0.000, p = .998), chronotype (rg = 0.086, p = .192) or insomnia complaints (rg = -0.034, p = .700). For plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate, genetic correlations could not be calculated because of the small sample size. Mendelian randomization did not support causal effects of caffeine intake on sleep, or vice versa. There was weak evidence that higher plasma caffeine levels causally decrease the odds of being a morning person. Although caffeine may acutely affect sleep when taken shortly before bedtime, our findings suggest that a sustained pattern of high caffeine consumption is more likely to be associated with poorer sleep through shared environmental factors. Future research should identify such environments, which could aid the development of interventions to improve sleep. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.

Breast-feeding and cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life: evidence from epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Owen, Christopher G; Whincup, Peter H; Cook, Derek G

2011-11-01

This paper considers the body of observational evidence examining the association of being breast-fed to cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life, and whether any potentially advantageous findings are causal. Early cardiovascular consequences/correlates of breast-feeding, compared to being formula fed, include markedly higher levels of total blood cholesterol, lower levels of pre-prandial blood glucose and insulin and lower levels of adiposity. However, a key issue is whether these early differences at a period of rapid development programme/influence cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life. Evidence of long-term effects of early feeding, largely from observational studies, has shown that those breast-fed have lower levels of blood total cholesterol, lower risk of type-2 diabetes and marginally lower levels of adiposity and blood pressure in adult life. There is no strong evidence to suggest effects of early feeding on adult levels of blood glucose, blood insulin and CHD outcomes, although further data are needed. However, the influence of confounding factors, such as maternal body size, maternal smoking and socio-demographic factors, and exclusivity of early feeding on these potentially beneficial associations needs to be considered before inferring any causal effects. Moreover, fewer studies have examined whether duration of exclusive breast-feeding has a graded influence on these risk factors and outcomes; such data would help further in deciding upon causal associations. While strong observational evidence suggests nutritional programming of adult cholesterol levels, associations with other markers of cardiometabolic risk and their consequences in later life need to be confirmed in well-conducted observational and experimental studies.

The effects of mother-child mediated learning strategies on psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability of boys with learning disability.

PubMed

Tzuriel, David; Shomron, Vered

2018-06-01

The theoretical framework of the current study is based on mediated learning experience (MLE) theory, which is similar to the scaffolding concept. The main question of the current study was to what extent mother-child MLE strategies affect psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability of boys with learning disability (LD). Secondary questions were to what extent the home environment, severity of boy's LD, and mother's attitude towards her child's LD affect her MLE strategies and consequently the child's psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability. The main objectives of this study were the following: (a) to investigate the effects of mother-child MLE strategies on psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability among 7- to 10-year-old boys with LD, (b) to study the causal effects of distal factors (i.e., socio-economic status [SES], home environment, severity of child's LD, mother's attitude towards LD) and proximal factors (i.e., MLE strategies) on psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability. A sample of mother-child dyads (n = 100) were videotaped during a short teaching interaction. All children were boys diagnosed as children with LD. The interaction was analysed for MLE strategies by the Observation of Mediation Interaction scale. Children were administered psychological resilience tests and their cognitive modifiability was measured by dynamic assessment using the Analogies subtest from the Cognitive Modifiability Battery. Home environment was rated by the Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment (HOME), and mothers answered a questionnaire of attitudes towards child's LD. The findings showed that mother-child MLE strategies, HOME, and socio-economic level contributed significantly to prediction of psychological resilience (78%) and cognitive modifiability (51%). Psychological resilience was positively correlated with cognitive modifiability (Rc = 0.67). Structural equation modelling analysis supported, in general, the hypotheses about the causal effects of distal and proximal factors of psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability. The findings validate and extend the MLE theory by showing that mother-child MLE strategies significantly predict psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability among boys with LD. Significant correlation between psychological resilience and cognitive modifiability calls for further research exploring the role of MLE strategies in development of both. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

An Explanation of the Distinction between Developmental Factors and Mechanisms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laski, Elida V.

2017-01-01

This paper provides five clear, relatable examples that can help students understand the distinction between the term "factors" and "mechanisms" in Developmental Psychology. The examples emphasize the idea that factors are related to changes in ways that moderate development, but are not causal. On the other hand, the term…

Applying Medical Anthropology: Developing Diabetes Education and Prevention Programs in American Indian Cultures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Brooke

1999-01-01

Medical anthropology provides a broader contextual framework for understanding complex causal factors associated with diabetes among American Indians and how to minimize these factors in education/treatment programs. Discusses historical, epidemiological, and genetic considerations in American Indian diabetes; cultural factors related to foods,…

Panel estimation for renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions, the composite trade intensity, and financial openness of the commonwealth of independent states.

PubMed

Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan; Saboori, Behnaz

2018-04-13

This article investigates the long-run and causal linkages between economic growth, CO 2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable (fossil fuels) energy consumption, the Composite Trade Intensity (CTI) as a proxy for trade openness, and the Chinn-Ito index as a proxy for financial openness for a panel of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan over the period of 1992-2015. It is the first time that CTI and the Chinn-Ito indexes are used in an economic-pollution model. Employing three panel unit root tests, panel cointegration estimation methods (DOLS and FMOLS), and two panel causality tests, the main empirical results provided evidence for the bidirectional long-run relationship between all the variables in all 12 sampled countries except for economic growth-renewable energy use linkage. The findings of causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional short-run panel causality running from economic growth, financial openness, and trade openness to CO 2 emissions and from fossil fuel energy consumption to renewable energy use.

Impact of environmental inputs on reverse-engineering approach to network structures.

PubMed

Wu, Jianhua; Sinfield, James L; Buchanan-Wollaston, Vicky; Feng, Jianfeng

2009-12-04

Uncovering complex network structures from a biological system is one of the main topic in system biology. The network structures can be inferred by the dynamical Bayesian network or Granger causality, but neither techniques have seriously taken into account the impact of environmental inputs. With considerations of natural rhythmic dynamics of biological data, we propose a system biology approach to reveal the impact of environmental inputs on network structures. We first represent the environmental inputs by a harmonic oscillator and combine them with Granger causality to identify environmental inputs and then uncover the causal network structures. We also generalize it to multiple harmonic oscillators to represent various exogenous influences. This system approach is extensively tested with toy models and successfully applied to a real biological network of microarray data of the flowering genes of the model plant Arabidopsis Thaliana. The aim is to identify those genes that are directly affected by the presence of the sunlight and uncover the interactive network structures associating with flowering metabolism. We demonstrate that environmental inputs are crucial for correctly inferring network structures. Harmonic causal method is proved to be a powerful technique to detect environment inputs and uncover network structures, especially when the biological data exhibit periodic oscillations.

Frequency distribution of causal connectivity in rat sensorimotor network: resting-state fMRI analyses.

PubMed

Shim, Woo H; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kim, Jeong Kon; Chae, Yongwook; Suh, Ji-Yeon; Rosen, Bruce R; Jeong, Jaeseung; Kim, Young R

2013-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) has emerged as an important method for assessing neural networks, enabling extensive connectivity analyses between multiple brain regions. Among the analysis techniques proposed, partial directed coherence (PDC) provides a promising tool to unveil causal connectivity networks in the frequency domain. Using the MRI time series obtained from the rat sensorimotor system, we applied PDC analysis to determine the frequency-dependent causality networks. In particular, we compared in vivo and postmortem conditions to establish the statistical significance of directional PDC values. Our results demonstrate that two distinctive frequency populations drive the causality networks in rat; significant, high-frequency causal connections clustered in the range of 0.2-0.4 Hz, and the frequently documented low-frequency connections <0.15 Hz. Frequency-dependence and directionality of the causal connection are characteristic between sensorimotor regions, implying the functional role of frequency bands to transport specific resting-state signals. In particular, whereas both intra- and interhemispheric causal connections between heterologous sensorimotor regions are robust over all frequency levels, the bilaterally homologous regions are interhemispherically linked mostly via low-frequency components. We also discovered a significant, frequency-independent, unidirectional connection from motor cortex to thalamus, indicating dominant cortical inputs to the thalamus in the absence of external stimuli. Additionally, to address factors underlying the measurement error, we performed signal simulations and revealed that the interactive MRI system noise alone is a likely source of the inaccurate PDC values. This work demonstrates technical basis for the PDC analysis of resting-state fMRI time series and the presence of frequency-dependent causality networks in the sensorimotor system.

Antepartum risk factors for newborn encephalopathy: the Western Australian case-control study

PubMed Central

Badawi, Nadia; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Keogh, John M; Alessandri, Louisa M; O’Sullivan, Fiona; Burton, Paul R; Pemberton, Patrick J; Stanley, Fiona J

1998-01-01

Objective To ascertain antepartum predictors of newborn encephalopathy in term infants. Design Population based, unmatched case-control study. Setting Metropolitan area of Western Australia, June 1993 to September 1995. Subjects All 164 term infants with moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy; 400 randomly selected controls. Main outcome measures Adjusted odds ratio estimates. Results The birth prevalence of moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy was 3.8/1000 term live births. The neonatal fatality was 9.1%. The risk of newborn encephalopathy increased with increasing maternal age and decreased with increasing parity. There was an increased risk associated with having a mother who was unemployed (odds ratio 3.60), an unskilled manual worker (3.84), or a housewife (2.48). Other risk factors from before conception were not having private health insurance (3.46), a family history of seizures (2.55), a family history of neurological disease (2.73), and infertility treatment (4.43). Risk factors during pregnancy were maternal thyroid disease (9.7), severe pre-eclampsia (6.30), moderate or severe bleeding (3.57), a clinically diagnosed viral illness (2.97), not having drunk alcohol (2.91); and placenta described at delivery as abnormal (2.07). Factors related to the baby were birth weight adjusted for gestational age between the third and ninth centile (4.37) or below the third centile (38.23). The risk relation with gestational age was J shaped with 38 and 39 weeks having the lowest risk. Conclusions The causes of newborn encephalopathy are heterogeneous and many of the causal pathways start before birth. Key messagesThe birth prevalence of moderate or severe newborn encephalopathy was 3.8 per 1000 term live births and the neonatal case fatality was 9.1%Independent risk factors before conception and in the antepartum period for newborn encephalopathy include socioeconomic status, family history of seizures or other neurological disease, conception after infertility treatment, maternal thyroid disease, severe pre-eclampsia, bleeding in pregnancy, viral illness, having an abnormal placenta, intrauterine growth restriction, and postmaturityThe causes of newborn encephalopathy are heterogeneous and many causal pathways start in the antepartum period PMID:9836652

Environmental conditions and Puumala virus transmission in Belgium

PubMed Central

Linard, Catherine; Tersago, Katrien; Leirs, Herwig; Lambin, Eric F

2007-01-01

Background Non-vector-borne zoonoses such as Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) can be transmitted directly, by physical contact between infected and susceptible hosts, or indirectly, with the environment as an intermediate. The objective of this study is to better understand the causal link between environmental features and PUUV prevalence in bank vole population in Belgium, and hence with transmission risk to humans. Our hypothesis was that environmental conditions controlling the direct and indirect transmission paths differ, such that the risk of transmission to humans is not only determined by host abundance. We explored the relationship between, on one hand, environmental variables and, on the other hand, host abundance, PUUV prevalence in the host, and human cases of nephropathia epidemica (NE). Statistical analyses were carried out on 17 field sites situated in Belgian broadleaf forests. Results Linear regressions showed that landscape attributes, particularly landscape configuration, influence the abundance of hosts in broadleaf forests. Based on logistic regressions, we show that PUUV prevalence among bank voles is more linked to variables favouring the survival of the virus in the environment, and thus the indirect transmission: low winter temperatures are strongly linked to prevalence among bank voles, and high soil moisture is linked to the number of NE cases among humans. The transmission risk to humans therefore depends on the efficiency of the indirect transmission path. Human risk behaviours, such as the propensity for people to go in forest areas that best support the virus, also influence the number of human cases. Conclusion The transmission risk to humans of non-vector-borne zoonoses such as PUUV depends on a combination of various environmental factors. To understand the complex causal pathways between the environment and disease risk, one should distinguish between environmental factors related to the abundance of hosts such as land-surface attributes, landscape configuration, and climate – i.e., host ecology, – and environmental factors related to PUUV prevalence, mainly winter temperatures and soil moisture – i.e., virus ecology. Beyond a threshold abundance of hosts, environmental factors favouring the indirect transmission path (soil and climate) can better predict the number of NE cases among humans than factors influencing the abundance of hosts. PMID:18078526

Prenatal, Perinatal, and Neonatal Risk Factors for Specific Language Impairment: A Prospective Pregnancy Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehouse, Andrew J. O.; Shelton, W. M. R.; Ing, Caleb; Newnham, John P.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Although genetic factors are known to play a causal role in specific language impairment (SLI), environmental factors may also be important. This study examined whether there are prenatal, perinatal, and neonatal factors that are associated with childhood SLI. Method: Participants were members of the Raine Study, a prospective cohort…

Anxiety Disorders and Sensory Over-Responsivity in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Is There a Causal Relationship?

PubMed Central

Ben-Sasson, Ayelet

2010-01-01

Anxiety disorders and sensory over-responsivity (SOR) are common in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), and there is evidence for an association between these two conditions. Currently, it is unclear what causal mechanisms may exist between SOR and anxiety. We propose three possible theories to explain the association between anxiety and SOR: (a) SOR is caused by anxiety; (b) Anxiety is caused by SOR; or (c) SOR and anxiety are causally unrelated but are associated through a common risk factor or diagnostic overlap. In this paper, we examine support for each theory in the existing anxiety, autism, and neuroscience literature, and discuss how each theory informs choice of interventions and implications for future studies. PMID:20383658

Attributional "Tunnel Vision" in Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder.

PubMed

Schilling, Lisa; Moritz, Steffen; Schneider, Brooke; Bierbrodt, Julia; Nagel, Matthias

2015-12-01

We aimed to examine the profile of interpersonal attributions in BPD. We hypothesized that patients show more mono-causal and internal attributions than healthy controls. A revised version of the Internal, Personal, Situational and Attributions Questionnaire was assessed in 30 BPD patients and 30 healthy controls. BPD patients and controls differed significantly in their attributional pattern. Patients displayed more mono-causal inferences, that is, they had difficulties considering alternative explanatory factors. For negative events, patients made more internal attributions compared to healthy controls. We concluded that mono-causal "trapped" thinking might contribute to (interpersonal) problems in BPD patients by fostering impulsive consequential behaviors, for example, harming one's self or others. A self-blaming tendency likely promotes depressive symptoms and low self-esteem.

Computational Everyday Life Human Behavior Model as Servicable Knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motomura, Yoichi; Nishida, Yoshifumi

A project called `Open life matrix' is not only a research activity but also real problem solving as an action research. This concept is realized by large-scale data collection, probabilistic causal structure model construction and information service providing using the model. One concrete outcome of this project is childhood injury prevention activity in new team consist of hospital, government, and many varieties of researchers. The main result from the project is a general methodology to apply probabilistic causal structure models as servicable knowledge for action research. In this paper, the summary of this project and future direction to emphasize action research driven by artificial intelligence technology are discussed.

Molecular Diagnosis of Cystic Fibrosis.

PubMed

Deignan, Joshua L; Grody, Wayne W

2016-01-01

This unit describes a recommended approach to identifying causal genetic variants in an individual suspected of having cystic fibrosis. An introduction to the genetics and clinical presentation of cystic fibrosis is initially presented, followed by a description of the two main strategies used in the molecular diagnosis of cystic fibrosis: (1) an initial targeted variant panel used to detect only the most common cystic fibrosis-causing variants in the CFTR gene, and (2) sequencing of the entire coding region of the CFTR gene to detect additional rare causal CFTR variants. Finally, the unit concludes with a discussion regarding the analytic and clinical validity of these approaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

"It Can Bust at Any Seam": Lessons for Deep Space Flight from Mawson's 1911-1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Phillip Scott

2010-09-01

Lessons useful for manned space flight can be gained by looking at exploring expeditions of the past. An aviation-accident style investigation was conducted on two fatalities that occurred on an Antarctic expedition in 1912-13. The causal factors of the accidents were determined; and lessons for future missions beyond LEO gleaned from both the causal factors and from looking at the expedition as a whole. The investigation highlighted, among other things, that probabilistic hazards can eventually take a life and that factors of terrain can and will damage equipment and kill men; that consumables should be segregated such that one mishap does not reduce margins to below those needed for survival, and that manned missions need to be able to jury-rig equipment in the field.

Searching for the Final Answer: Factors Contributing to Medication Administration Errors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pape, Tess M.

2001-01-01

Causal factors contributing to errors in medication administration should be thoroughly investigated, focusing on systems rather than individual nurses. Unless systemic causes are addressed, many errors will go unreported for fear of reprisal. (Contains 42 references.) (SK)

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

Summary of 1968-1970 multidisciplinary accident investigation reports. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-08-01

In June 1971, Volume 1 of a two-volume series summarizing the causal factors, conclusions and recommendations which emanated from various in-depth accident reports was published. This first volume contained a listing of these factors according to tea...

Belief beyond the evidence: using the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity to show 2 practices that distort scientific evidence1234

PubMed Central

Brown, Andrew W; Bohan Brown, Michelle M

2013-01-01

Background: Various intentional and unintentional factors influence beliefs beyond what scientific evidence justifies. Two such factors are research lacking probative value (RLPV) and biased research reporting (BRR). Objective: We investigated the prevalence of RLPV and BRR in research about the proposition that skipping breakfast causes weight gain, which is called the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity (PEBO) in this article. Design: Studies related to the PEBO were synthesized by using a cumulative meta-analysis. Abstracts from these studies were also rated for the improper use of causal language and biased interpretations. In separate analyses, articles that cited an observational study about the PEBO were rated for the inappropriate use of causal language, and articles that cited a randomized controlled trial (RCT) about the PEBO were rated for misleadingly citing the RCT. Results: The current body of scientific knowledge indicates that the PEBO is only presumed true. The observational literature on the PEBO has gratuitously established the association, but not the causal relation, between skipping breakfast and obesity (final cumulative meta-analysis P value <10−42), which is evidence of RLPV. Four examples of BRR are evident in the PEBO literature as follows: 1) biased interpretation of one's own results, 2) improper use of causal language in describing one's own results, 3) misleadingly citing others’ results, and 4) improper use of causal language in citing others’ work. Conclusions: The belief in the PEBO exceeds the strength of scientific evidence. The scientific record is distorted by RLPV and BRR. RLPV is a suboptimal use of collective scientific resources. PMID:24004890

The joint Simon effect depends on perceived agency, but not intentionality, of the alternative action

PubMed Central

Stenzel, Anna; Dolk, Thomas; Colzato, Lorenza S.; Sellaro, Roberta; Hommel, Bernhard; Liepelt, Roman

2014-01-01

A co-actor's intentionality has been suggested to be a key modulating factor for joint action effects like the joint Simon effect (JSE). However, in previous studies intentionality has often been confounded with agency defined as perceiving the initiator of an action as being the causal source of the action. The aim of the present study was to disentangle the role of agency and intentionality as modulating factors of the JSE. In Experiment 1, participants performed a joint go/nogo Simon task next to a co-actor who either intentionally controlled a response button with own finger movements (agency+/intentionality+) or who passively placed the hand on a response button that moved up and down on its own as triggered by computer signals (agency−/intentionality−). In Experiment 2, we included a condition in which participants believed that the co-actor intentionally controlled the response button with a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) while placing the response finger clearly besides the response button, so that the causal relationship between agent and action effect was perceptually disrupted (agency−/intentionality+). As a control condition, the response button was computer controlled while the co-actor placed the response finger besides the response button (agency−/intentionality−). Experiment 1 showed that the JSE is present with an intentional co-actor and causality between co-actor and action effect, but absent with an unintentional co-actor and a lack of causality between co-actor and action effect. Experiment 2 showed that the JSE is absent with an intentional co-actor, but no causality between co-actor and action effect. Our findings indicate an important role of the co-actor's agency for the JSE. They also suggest that the attribution of agency has a strong perceptual basis. PMID:25140144

The joint Simon effect depends on perceived agency, but not intentionality, of the alternative action.

PubMed

Stenzel, Anna; Dolk, Thomas; Colzato, Lorenza S; Sellaro, Roberta; Hommel, Bernhard; Liepelt, Roman

2014-01-01

A co-actor's intentionality has been suggested to be a key modulating factor for joint action effects like the joint Simon effect (JSE). However, in previous studies intentionality has often been confounded with agency defined as perceiving the initiator of an action as being the causal source of the action. The aim of the present study was to disentangle the role of agency and intentionality as modulating factors of the JSE. In Experiment 1, participants performed a joint go/nogo Simon task next to a co-actor who either intentionally controlled a response button with own finger movements (agency+/intentionality+) or who passively placed the hand on a response button that moved up and down on its own as triggered by computer signals (agency-/intentionality-). In Experiment 2, we included a condition in which participants believed that the co-actor intentionally controlled the response button with a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) while placing the response finger clearly besides the response button, so that the causal relationship between agent and action effect was perceptually disrupted (agency-/intentionality+). As a control condition, the response button was computer controlled while the co-actor placed the response finger besides the response button (agency-/intentionality-). Experiment 1 showed that the JSE is present with an intentional co-actor and causality between co-actor and action effect, but absent with an unintentional co-actor and a lack of causality between co-actor and action effect. Experiment 2 showed that the JSE is absent with an intentional co-actor, but no causality between co-actor and action effect. Our findings indicate an important role of the co-actor's agency for the JSE. They also suggest that the attribution of agency has a strong perceptual basis.

Establishing causality in the decline and deformity of amphibians: The amphibian research and monitoring initiative model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Little, E.E.; Bridges, C.M.; Linder, G.; Boone, M.; ,

2003-01-01

Research to date has indicated that a range of environmental variables such as disease, parasitism, predation, competition, environmental contamination, solar ultraviolet radiation, climate change, or habitat alteration may be responsible for declining amphibian populations and the appearance of deformed organisms, yet in many cases no definitive environmental variable stands out as a causal factor. Multiple Stressors are often present in the habitat, and interactions among these can magnify injury to biota. This raises the possibility that the additive or synergistic impact of these Stressors may be the underlying cause of amphibian declines. Effective management for the restoration of amphibian populations requires the identification of causal factors contributing to their declines. A systematic approach to determine causality is especially important because initial impressions may be misleading or ambiguous. In addition, the evaluation of amphibian populations requires consideration of a broader spatial scale than commonly used in regulatory monitoring. We describe a systematic three-tiered approach to determine causality in amphibian declines and deformities. Tier 1 includes an evaluation of historic databases and extant data and would involve a desktop synopsis of the status of various stressors as well as site visits. Tier 2 studies are iterative, hypothesis driven studies beginning with general tests and continuing with analyses of increasing complexity as certain stressors are identified for further investigation. Tier 3 applies information developed in Tier 2 as predictive indicators of habitats and species at risk over broad landscape scales and provides decision support for the adaptive management of amphibian recovery. This comprehensive, tiered program could provide a mechanistic approach to identifying and addressing specific stressors responsible for amphibian declines across various landscapes.

The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

PubMed

Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

2014-01-01

Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Causal chain mapping: a novel method to analyse treatment compliance decisions relating to lymphatic filariasis elimination in Alor, Indonesia.

PubMed

Krentel, Alison; Aunger, Robert

2012-08-01

Many public health programmes require individuals to comply with particular behaviours that are novel to them, for example, acquiring new eating habits, accepting immunizations or taking a new medication. In particular, mass drug administration programmes only work to reduce the prevalence of a disease if significant proportions of the target population take the drug in question. In such cases, knowledge of the factors most likely to lead to high levels of compliance is crucial to the programme's success. Existing models of compliance tend to either address interpersonal, organizational or psychological causes independently. Here, the authors present a formal method for analysing relevant factors in the situational context of the compliant behaviour, identifying how these factors may interact within the individual. This method was developed from semantic network analysis, augmented to include environmental and demographic variables to show causal linkages-hence the name 'causal chain mapping'. The ability of this method to provide significant insight into the actual behaviour of individuals is demonstrated with examples from a mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in Alor District, Indonesia. The use of this method is likely to help identify key components influencing compliance, and thus make any public health programme reliant on the adoption of novel behaviours more effective.

Self-organizing map analysis using multivariate data from theophylline powders predicted by a thin-plate spline interpolation.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Kikuchi, Shingo; Takayama, Kozo

2010-11-01

The quality by design concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires establishment of a science-based rationale and a design space. We integrated thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation and Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline powders were prepared based on the standard formulation. The angle of repose, compressibility, cohesion, and dispersibility were measured as the response variables. These responses were predicted quantitatively on the basis of a nonlinear TPS. A large amount of data on these powders was generated and classified into several clusters using an SOM. The experimental values of the responses were predicted with high accuracy, and the data generated for the powders could be classified into several distinctive clusters. The SOM feature map allowed us to analyze the global and local correlations between causal factors and powder characteristics. For instance, the quantities of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) and magnesium stearate (Mg-St) were classified distinctly into each cluster, indicating that the quantities of MCC and Mg-St were crucial for determining the powder characteristics. This technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline powder formulations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association

On the factorial and construct validity of the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory: conceptual and operational concerns.

PubMed

Markland, D; Hardy, L

1997-03-01

The Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI) has been gaining acceptance in the sport and exercise domain since the publication of research by McAuley, Duncan, and Tammen (1989) and McAuley, Wraith, and Duncan (1991), which reported confirmatory support for the factorial validity of a hierarchical model of intrinsic motivation. Authors of the present study argue that the results of these studies did not conclusively support the hierarchical model and that the model did not accurately reflect the tenets of cognitive evaluation theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) from which the IMI is drawn. It is also argued that a measure of perceived locus of causality is required to model intrinsic motivation properly. The development of a perceived locus of causality for exercise scale is described, and alternative models, in which perceived competence and perceived locus of causality are held to have causal influences on intrinsic motivation, are compared with an oblique confirmatory factor analytic model in which the constructs are held at the same conceptual level. Structural equation modeling showed support for a causal model in which perceived locus of causality mediates the effects of perceived competence on pressure-tension, interest-enjoyment, and effort-importance. It is argued that conceptual and operational problems with the IMI, as currently used, should be addressed before it becomes established as the instrument of choice for assessing levels of intrinsic motivation.

Beliefs and perceptions about the causes of breast cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Thomson, Allyson K; Heyworth, Jane S; Girschik, Jennifer; Slevin, Terry; Saunders, Christobel; Fritschi, Lin

2014-08-21

Attributions of causality are common for many diseases, including breast cancer. The risk of developing breast cancer can be reduced by modifications to lifestyle and behaviours to minimise exposure to specific risk factors, such as obesity. However, these modifications will only occur if women believe that certain behaviours/lifestyle factors have an impact on the development of breast cancer. The Breast Cancer, Environment and Employment Study is a case-control study of breast cancer conducted in Western Australia between 2009 and 2011. As part of the study 1109 women with breast cancer and 1633 women without the disease completed a Risk Perception Questionnaire in which they were asked in an open-ended question for specific cause/s to the development of breast cancer in themselves or in others. The study identified specific causal beliefs, and assessed differences in the beliefs between women with and without breast cancer. The most common attributions in women without breast cancer were to familial or inherited factors (77.6%), followed by lifestyle factors, such as poor diet and smoking (47.1%), and environmental factors, such as food additives (45.4%). The most common attributions in women with breast cancer were to mental or emotional factors (46.3%), especially stress, followed by lifestyle factors (38.6%) and physiological factors (37.5%), particularly relating to hormonal history. While the majority of participants in this study provided one or more causal attributions for breast cancer, many of the reported risk factors do not correspond to those generally accepted by the scientific community. These misperceptions could be having a significant impact on the success of prevention and early detection programs that seek to minimise the pain and suffering caused by this disease. In particular, women who have no family history of the disease may not work to minimise their exposure to the modifiable risk factors.

Synergetic and Redundant Information Flow Detected by Unnormalized Granger Causality: Application to Resting State fMRI.

PubMed

Stramaglia, Sebastiano; Angelini, Leonardo; Wu, Guorong; Cortes, Jesus M; Faes, Luca; Marinazzo, Daniele

2016-12-01

We develop a framework for the analysis of synergy and redundancy in the pattern of information flow between subsystems of a complex network. The presence of redundancy and/or synergy in multivariate time series data renders difficulty to estimate the neat flow of information from each driver variable to a given target. We show that adopting an unnormalized definition of Granger causality, one may put in evidence redundant multiplets of variables influencing the target by maximizing the total Granger causality to a given target, over all the possible partitions of the set of driving variables. Consequently, we introduce a pairwise index of synergy which is zero when two independent sources additively influence the future state of the system, differently from previous definitions of synergy. We report the application of the proposed approach to resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from the Human Connectome Project showing that redundant pairs of regions arise mainly due to space contiguity and interhemispheric symmetry, while synergy occurs mainly between nonhomologous pairs of regions in opposite hemispheres. Redundancy and synergy, in healthy resting brains, display characteristic patterns, revealed by the proposed approach. The pairwise synergy index, here introduced, maps the informational character of the system at hand into a weighted complex network: the same approach can be applied to other complex systems whose normal state corresponds to a balance between redundant and synergetic circuits.

Causal Beliefs and Effects upon Mental Illness Identification Among Chinese Immigrant Relatives of Individuals with Psychosis.

PubMed

Yang, Lawrence H; Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J

2012-08-01

Identifying factors that facilitate treatment for psychotic disorders among Chinese-immigrants is crucial due to delayed treatment use. Identifying causal beliefs held by relatives that might predict identification of 'mental illness' as opposed to other 'indigenous labels' may promote more effective mental health service use. We examine what effects beliefs of 'physical causes' and other non-biomedical causal beliefs ('general social causes', and 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' or culture-specific epistemologies of illness) might have on mental illness identification. Forty-nine relatives of Chinese-immigrant consumers with psychosis were sampled. Higher endorsement of 'physical causes' was associated with mental illness labeling. However among the non-biomedical causal beliefs, 'general social causes' demonstrated no relationship with mental illness identification, while endorsement of 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' showed a negative relationship. Effective treatment- and community-based psychoeducation, in addition to emphasizing biomedical models, might integrate indigenous Chinese epistemologies of illness to facilitate rapid identification of psychotic disorders and promote treatment use.

Underweight as a risk factor for respiratory death in the Whitehall cohort study: exploring reverse causality using a 45-year follow-up.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Shipley, Martin J; Bell, Joshua A; Brunner, Eric J; Batty, G David; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2016-01-01

Underweight adults have higher rates of respiratory death than the normal weight but it is unclear whether this association is causal or reflects illness-induced weight loss (reverse causality). Evidence from a 45-year follow-up of underweight participants for respiratory mortality in the Whitehall study (N=18 823; 2139 respiratory deaths) suggests that excess risk among the underweight is attributable to reverse causality. The age-adjusted and smoking-adjusted risk was 1.55-fold (95% CI 1.32 to 1.83) higher among underweight compared with normal weight participants, but attenuated in a stepwise manner to 1.14 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.71) after serial exclusions of deaths during the first 5-35 years of follow-up (P(trend)<0.001). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Causal Beliefs and Effects upon Mental Illness Identification Among Chinese Immigrant Relatives of Individuals with Psychosis

PubMed Central

Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J.

2013-01-01

Identifying factors that facilitate treatment for psychotic disorders among Chinese-immigrants is crucial due to delayed treatment use. Identifying causal beliefs held by relatives that might predict identification of ‘mental illness’ as opposed to other ‘indigenous labels’ may promote more effective mental health service use. We examine what effects beliefs of ‘physical causes’ and other non-biomedical causal beliefs (‘general social causes’, and ‘indigenous Chinese beliefs’ or culture-specific epistemologies of illness) might have on mental illness identification. Forty-nine relatives of Chinese-immigrant consumers with psychosis were sampled. Higher endorsement of ‘physical causes’ was associated with mental illness labeling. However among the non-biomedical causal beliefs, ‘general social causes’ demonstrated no relationship with mental illness identification, while endorsement of ‘indigenous Chinese beliefs’ showed a negative relationship. Effective treatment- and community-based psychoeducation, in addition to emphasizing biomedical models, might integrate indigenous Chinese epistemologies of illness to facilitate rapid identification of psychotic disorders and promote treatment use. PMID:22075770

Double pruning to prevent trunk diseases in Washington vineyards

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Trunk diseases (aka wood-canker diseases) present a serious challenge to vineyard productivity and longevity. There are four main trunk diseases: Botryosphaeria dieback, Esca, Eutypa dieback, and Phomopsis dieback. The causal fungi (e.g., Eutypa lata, Neofusicoccum parvum) establish chronic infectio...

Epidemiology of endemic goitre in western Colombia

PubMed Central

Gaitan, E.; Merino, H.; Rodriguez, G.; Medina, P.; Meyer, J. D.; DeRouen, T. A.; MacLennan, R.

1978-01-01

This paper reports on recent epidemiological observations in western Colombia, which further demonstrate the presence of naturally-occurring goitrogens contaminating water supplies in areas where goitre persists despite prolonged and continuous iodine supplementation. 'Prospective' and 'cross-sectional' studies in 41 localities where the populations have been on a uniform and adequate iodine supplementation for the last 10-20 years indicate that, in the endemia of western Colombia, environmental factors other than nutritional iodine deficiency are responsible for differences in goitre prevalence. Further epidemiological studies to determine the causal factors for the persistence of the endemia established a correlation between the sources of drinking water and goitre prevalence rates. Organic compounds containing sulfur with marked thionamide-like antithyroid activity were isolated from water supplying endemic goitre districts, and results are presented supporting the hypothesis that sedimentary rocks rich in organic matter are the main source of water-borne goitrogens. Bacteriological investigations showed that the presence of Klebsiella pneumoniae in drinking water and bacterial concentration were related significantly with goitre prevalence only in the presence of other variables, particularly the presence of sedimentary rocks. In the light of these epidemiological observations and experimental studies it may be concluded that, at present, endemic goitre in western Colombia is not due to nutritional iodine deficiency, but that water supplies are contaminated with sulfur-bearing organic compounds with thionamide-like antithyroid activity most probably deriving from sedimentary rocks rich in organic matter and that these compounds are the main factor underlying the endemia. PMID:80287

[Application of root cause analysis in healthcare].

PubMed

Hsu, Tsung-Fu

2007-12-01

The main purpose of this study was to explore various aspects of root cause analysis (RCA), including its definition, rationale concept, main objective, implementation procedures, most common analysis methodology (fault tree analysis, FTA), and advantages and methodologic limitations in regard to healthcare. Several adverse events that occurred at a certain hospital were also analyzed by the author using FTA as part of this study. RCA is a process employed to identify basic and contributing causal factors underlying performance variations associated with adverse events. The rationale concept of RCA offers a systemic approach to improving patient safety that does not assign blame or liability to individuals. The four-step process involved in conducting an RCA includes: RCA preparation, proximate cause identification, root cause identification, and recommendation generation and implementation. FTA is a logical, structured process that can help identify potential causes of system failure before actual failures occur. Some advantages and significant methodologic limitations of RCA were discussed. Finally, we emphasized that errors stem principally from faults attributable to system design, practice guidelines, work conditions, and other human factors, which induce health professionals to make negligence or mistakes with regard to healthcare. We must explore the root causes of medical errors to eliminate potential RCA system failure factors. Also, a systemic approach is needed to resolve medical errors and move beyond a current culture centered on assigning fault to individuals. In constructing a real environment of patient-centered safety healthcare, we can help encourage clients to accept state-of-the-art healthcare services.

[Causal "cancer personality" attribution--an expression of maladaptive coping with illness?].

PubMed

Faller, H; Lang, H; Schilling, S

1996-01-01

In psycho-oncology, the concept of a "cancer-prone personality" has gained some attention. This notion means that persons who try to stay pseudo-normal in spite of severe life stress, suppress negative emotions, particularly anger, and sacrifice themselves for other people without uttering any personal demands, are at a high risk to develop cancer. However, it has been demonstrated by previous research that features of the cancer-prone personality could only be found if the ill person was convinced to suffer from cancer, irrespective of what the factual diagnosis was. Thus it can be concluded that at least some aspects of the so called cancer personality might be the results of coping with the belief of having cancer. The present study had the objective to describe causal attributions to psychosocial factors in cancer patients, and to find out if these were connected with emotional state and coping. N = 120 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients were included in the study. The instruments consisted of a semi-structured interview, a check-list of subjective causal factors, self-reports and interviewer ratings on emotional state and standardised questionnaires about depression and coping. Patients who made a psychosocial causal attribution proved to suffer from greater emotional distress, to be more depressed and less hopeful than other patients. This difference seemed to be mediated by a depressive way of coping with the illness (brooding, wrangling). Thus, an attribution of the illness to psychological factors seems indicative of a maladaptive way of coping with illness. This result is supported by similar findings of previous research. The question is put up to discussion if the psychosomatic concept of a cancer personality may reflect patients' subjective theories which in turn may be the expression of their depressive coping modes.

An exploration of the factor structure and development of potentially useful subscales of etiological beliefs about schizophrenia in a general population sample.

PubMed

Goulding, Sandra M; Broussard, Beth; Demir, Berivan; Compton, Michael T

2009-11-01

Given that accessing care, treatment engagement, and course and outcomes among people with schizophrenia may be influenced by beliefs about causes in the larger community, causal beliefs about schizophrenia have been studied in numerous communities around the world. In particular, the 30-item list of etiological attributions developed by Angermeyer and colleagues has been used to describe causal beliefs in patients, family members, and lay community members within such communities. The current study, the first examination of the latent or factorial structure of these 30 causal beliefs, seeks to provide informative subscales that may enhance reliability and validity of groupings of causes for future analyses involving community members. Data were gathered from six separate surveys involving three distinct groups of individuals from the same community within the southeastern United States: lay community members, relatives of individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and police officers at the start of a 1-week mental health training program. Exploratory factor analysis in the overall sample (n=577) revealed four factors that were used to define four subscales, termed: personal/family/social stressors (14 items), inconsistent with modern conceptions of risk (8 items), external/environmental insults to the brain (6 items), and consistent with modern biological conceptions (2 items). Cronbach's internal consistency reliability coefficients for these subscales were 0.91, 0.83, 0.71, and 0.65, respectively. These findings suggest that subscales could be derived to provide continuous measures for assessing causal beliefs in order to study how this concept relates to attitudes toward schizophrenia, the people affected by the disorder, and treatments that are recommended by mental health professionals. Replication within similar and dissimilar groups is warranted.

Causal effects on child language development: A review of studies in communication sciences and disorders.

PubMed

Rogers, Clare R; Nulty, Karissa L; Betancourt, Mariana Aparicio; DeThorne, Laura S

2015-01-01

We reviewed recent studies published across key journals within the field of communication sciences and disorders (CSD) to survey what causal influences on child language development were being considered. Specifically, we reviewed a total of 2921 abstracts published within the following journals between 2003 and 2013: Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools (LSHSS); American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology (AJSLP); Journal of Speech, Language, and Hearing Research (JSLHR); Journal of Communication Disorders (JCD); and the International Journal of Language and Communication Disorders (IJLCD). Of the 346 eligible articles that addressed causal factors on child language development across the five journals, 11% were categorized as Genetic (37/346), 83% (287/346) were categorized as Environmental, and 6% (22/346) were categorized as Mixed. The bulk of studies addressing environmental influences focused on therapist intervention (154/296=52%), family/caregiver linguistic input (65/296=22%), or family/caregiver qualities (39/296=13%). A more in-depth review of all eligible studies published in 2013 (n=34) revealed that family/caregiver qualities served as the most commonly controlled environmental factor (e.g., SES) and only 3 studies explicitly noted the possibility of gene-environment interplay. This review highlighted the need to expand the research base for the field of CSD to include a broader range of environmental influences on child language development (e.g., diet, toxin exposure, stress) and to consider more directly the complex and dynamic interplay between genetic and environmental effects. Readers will be able to highlight causal factors on child language development that have been studied over the past decade in CSD and recognize additional influences worthy of consideration. In addition, readers will become familiar with basic tenets of developmental systems theory, including the complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors that shapes child development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Etiologic effects and optimal intakes of foods and nutrients for risk of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes: Systematic reviews and meta-analyses from the Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group (NutriCoDE)

PubMed Central

Peñalvo, Jose L.; Khatibzadeh, Shahab; Singh, Gitanjali M.; Rao, Mayuree; Fahimi, Saman; Powles, John; Mozaffarian, Dariush

2017-01-01

Background Dietary habits are major contributors to coronary heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. However, comprehensive evaluation of etiologic effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic outcomes, their quantitative effects, and corresponding optimal intakes are not well-established. Objective To systematically review the evidence for effects of dietary factors on cardiometabolic diseases, including comprehensively assess evidence for causality; estimate magnitudes of etiologic effects; evaluate heterogeneity and potential for bias in these etiologic effects; and determine optimal population intake levels. Methods We utilized Bradford-Hill criteria to assess probable or convincing evidence for causal effects of multiple diet-cardiometabolic disease relationships. Etiologic effects were quantified from published or de novo meta-analyses of prospective studies or randomized clinical trials, incorporating standardized units, dose-response estimates, and heterogeneity by age and other characteristics. Potential for bias was assessed in validity analyses. Optimal intakes were determined by levels associated with lowest disease risk. Results We identified 10 foods and 7 nutrients with evidence for causal cardiometabolic effects, including protective effects of fruits, vegetables, beans/legumes, nuts/seeds, whole grains, fish, yogurt, fiber, seafood omega-3s, polyunsaturated fats, and potassium; and harms of unprocessed red meats, processed meats, sugar-sweetened beverages, glycemic load, trans-fats, and sodium. Proportional etiologic effects declined with age, but did not generally vary by sex. Established optimal population intakes were generally consistent with observed national intakes and major dietary guidelines. In validity analyses, the identified effects of individual dietary components were similar to quantified effects of dietary patterns on cardiovascular risk factors and hard endpoints. Conclusions These novel findings provide a comprehensive summary of causal evidence, quantitative etiologic effects, heterogeneity, and optimal intakes of major dietary factors for cardiometabolic diseases, informing disease impact estimation and policy planning and priorities. PMID:28448503

Practitioner Review: What have we learnt about the causes of ADHD?

PubMed Central

Thapar, Anita; Cooper, Miriam; Eyre, Olga; Langley, Kate

2013-01-01

Background Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and its possible causes still attract controversy. Genes, pre and perinatal risks, psychosocial factors and environmental toxins have all been considered as potential risk factors. Method This review (focussing on literature published since 1997, selected from a search of PubMed) critically considers putative risk factors with a focus on genetics and selected environmental risks, examines their relationships with ADHD and discusses the likelihood that these risks are causal as well as some of the main implications. Results No single risk factor explains ADHD. Both inherited and noninherited factors contribute and their effects are interdependent. ADHD is familial and heritable. Research into the inherited and molecular genetic contributions to ADHD suggest an important overlap with other neurodevelopmental problems, notably, autism spectrum disorders. Having a biological relative with ADHD, large, rare copy number variants, some small effect size candidate gene variants, extreme early adversity, pre and postnatal exposure to lead and low birth weight/prematurity have been most consistently found as risk factors, but none are yet known to be definitely causal. There is a large literature documenting associations between ADHD and a wide variety of putative environmental risks that can, at present, only be regarded as correlates. Findings from research designs that go beyond simply testing for association are beginning to contest the robustness of some environmental exposures previously thought to be ADHD risk factors. Conclusions The genetic risks implicated in ADHD generally tend to have small effect sizes or be rare and often increase risk of many other types of psychopathology. Thus, they cannot be used for prediction, genetic testing or diagnostic purposes beyond what is predicted by a family history. There is a need to consider the possibility of parents and siblings being similarly affected and how this might impact on engagement with families, influence interventions and require integration with adult services. Genetic contributions to disorder do not necessarily mean that medications are the treatment of choice. We also consider how findings might influence the conceptualisation of ADHD, public health policy implications and why it is unhelpful and incorrect to dichotomise genetic/biological and environmental explanations. It is essential that practitioners can interpret genetic and aetiological research findings and impart informed explanations to families. PMID:22963644

A review of covariate selection for non-experimental comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Sauer, Brian C; Brookhart, M Alan; Roy, Jason; VanderWeele, Tyler

2013-11-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, whereas adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason, variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely known. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher's knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Review of Covariate Selection for Nonexperimental Comparative Effectiveness Research

PubMed Central

Sauer, Brian C.; Brookhart, Alan; Roy, Jason; Vanderweele, Tyler

2014-01-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research (CER), and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for on a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, while adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely know. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses the high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher’s knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically-derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. PMID:24006330

Myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome: An infectious disease.

PubMed

Underhill, R A

2015-12-01

The etiology of myalgic encephalomyelitis also known as chronic fatigue syndrome or ME/CFS has not been established. Controversies exist over whether it is an organic disease or a psychological disorder and even the existence of ME/CFS as a disease entity is sometimes denied. Suggested causal hypotheses have included psychosomatic disorders, infectious agents, immune dysfunctions, autoimmunity, metabolic disturbances, toxins and inherited genetic factors. Clinical, immunological and epidemiological evidence supports the hypothesis that: ME/CFS is an infectious disease; the causal pathogen persists in patients; the pathogen can be transmitted by casual contact; host factors determine susceptibility to the illness; and there is a population of healthy carriers, who may be able to shed the pathogen. ME/CFS is endemic globally as sporadic cases and occasional cluster outbreaks (epidemics). Cluster outbreaks imply an infectious agent. An abrupt flu-like onset resembling an infectious illness occurs in outbreak patients and many sporadic patients. Immune responses in sporadic patients resemble immune responses in other infectious diseases. Contagion is shown by finding secondary cases in outbreaks, and suggested by a higher prevalence of ME/CFS in sporadic patients' genetically unrelated close contacts (spouses/partners) than the community. Abortive cases, sub-clinical cases, and carrier state individuals were found in outbreaks. The chronic phase of ME/CFS does not appear to be particularly infective. Some healthy patient-contacts show immune responses similar to patients' immune responses, suggesting exposure to the same antigen (a pathogen). The chronicity of symptoms and of immune system changes and the occurrence of secondary cases suggest persistence of a causal pathogen. Risk factors which predispose to developing ME/CFS are: a close family member with ME/CFS; inherited genetic factors; female gender; age; rest/activity; previous exposure to stress or toxins; various infectious diseases preceding the onset of ME/CFS; and occupational exposure of health care professionals. The hypothesis implies that ME/CFS patients should not donate blood or tissue and usual precautions should be taken when handling patients' blood and tissue. No known pathogen has been shown to cause ME/CFS. Confirmation of the hypothesis requires identification of a causal pathogen. Research should focus on a search for unknown and known pathogens. Finding a causal pathogen could assist with diagnosis; help find a biomarker; enable the development of anti-microbial treatments; suggest preventive measures; explain pathophysiological findings; and reassure patients about the validity of their symptoms.

Confirmatory Factor Analytic Structure and Measurement Invariance of Quantitative Autistic Traits Measured by the Social Responsiveness Scale-2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazier, Thomas W.; Ratliff, Kristin R.; Gruber, Chris; Zhang, Yi; Law, Paul A.; Constantino, John N.

2014-01-01

Understanding the factor structure of autistic symptomatology is critical to the discovery and interpretation of causal mechanisms in autism spectrum disorder. We applied confirmatory factor analysis and assessment of measurement invariance to a large ("N" = 9635) accumulated collection of reports on quantitative autistic traits using…

On the causal links between health indicator, output, combustible renewables and waste consumption, rail transport, and CO2 emissions: the case of Tunisia.

PubMed

Ben Jebli, Mehdi

2016-08-01

This study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality test to investigate the short- and long-run relationships between health indicator, real GDP, combustible renewables and waste consumption, rail transport, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the case of Tunisia, spanning the period of 1990-2011. The empirical findings suggest that the Fisher statistic of the Wald test confirm the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Moreover, the long-run estimated elasticities of the ARDL model provide that output and combustible renewables and waste consumption have a positive and statistically significant impact on health situation, while CO2 emissions and rail transport both contribute to the decrease of health indicator. Granger causality results affirm that, in the short-run, there is a unidirectional causality running from real GDP to health, a unidirectional causality from health to combustible renewables and waste consumption, and a unidirectional causality from all variables to CO2 emissions. In the long-run, all the computed error correction terms are significant and confirm the existence of long-run association among the variables. Our recommendations for the Tunisian policymakers are as follows: (i) exploiting wastes and renewable fuels can be a good strategy to eliminate pollution caused by emissions and subsequently improve health quality, (ii) the use of renewable energy as a main source for national rail transport is an effective strategy for public health, (iii) renewable energy investment projects are beneficial plans for the country as this contributes to the growth of its own economy and reduce energy dependence, and (iii) more renewable energy consumption leads not only to decrease pollution but also to stimulate health situation because of the increase of doctors and nurses numbers.

Genetic Instrumental Variable Studies of Effects of Prenatal Risk Factors

PubMed Central

von Hinke Kessler Scholder, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Identifying the effects of maternal risk factors during pregnancy on infant and child health is an area of tremendous research interest. However, of interest to policy makers is unraveling the causal effects of prenatal risk factors, not their associations with child health, which may be confounded by several unobserved factors. In this paper, we evaluate the utility of genetic variants in three genes that have unequivocal evidence of being related to three major risk factors – CHRNA3 for smoking, ADH1B for alcohol use, and FTO for obesity – as instrumental variables for identifying the causal effects of such factors during pregnancy. Using two independent datasets, we find that these variants are overall predictive of the risk factors and are not systematically related to observed confounders, suggesting that they may be useful instruments. We also find some suggestive evidence that genetic effects are stronger during than before pregnancy. We provide an empirical example illustrating the use of these genetic variants as instruments to evaluate the effects of risk factors on birth weight. Finally, we offer suggestions for researchers contemplating the use of these variants as instruments. PMID:23701534

Genetic architecture for human aggression: A study of gene-phenotype relationship in OMIM.

PubMed

Zhang-James, Yanli; Faraone, Stephen V

2016-07-01

Genetic studies of human aggression have mainly focused on known candidate genes and pathways regulating serotonin and dopamine signaling and hormonal functions. These studies have taught us much about the genetics of human aggression, but no genetic locus has yet achieved genome-significance. We here present a review based on a paradoxical hypothesis that studies of rare, functional genetic variations can lead to a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying complex multifactorial disorders such as aggression. We examined all aggression phenotypes catalogued in Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM), an Online Catalog of Human Genes and Genetic Disorders. We identified 95 human disorders that have documented aggressive symptoms in at least one individual with a well-defined genetic variant. Altogether, we retrieved 86 causal genes. Although most of these genes had not been implicated in human aggression by previous studies, the most significantly enriched canonical pathways had been previously implicated in aggression (e.g., serotonin and dopamine signaling). Our findings provide strong evidence to support the causal role of these pathways in the pathogenesis of aggression. In addition, the novel genes and pathways we identified suggest additional mechanisms underlying the origins of human aggression. Genome-wide association studies with very large samples will be needed to determine if common variants in these genes are risk factors for aggression. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dispositional Employability and Online Training Purchase. Evidence from Employees' Behavior in Spain.

PubMed

Torrent-Sellens, Joan; Ficapal-Cusí, Pilar; Boada-Grau, Joan

2016-01-01

This article explores the relationship between dispositional employability and online training purchase. Through a sample of 883 employees working for enterprises in Spain, and a using principal component analysis and binomial logit probabilistic models, the research revealed two main results. First, it was found that dispositional employability is characterized by five factors: "openness to changes at work," "career motivation and work resilience," "work and career proactivity," "optimism and engagement at work," and "work identity." Second, the research also found a double causality in the relationship analysis between dispositional employability and online training purchase. However, this causality is not direct. In explaining dispositional employability, certain motivations and types of behavior of employees participating in online training are significant. In particular, greater sensitivity toward career-related personal empowerment, a greater predisposition toward developing new experiences at work, and a greater awareness of the fact that positive job outcomes are related to preparation conscientiousness. In explaining online training purchase, employees who are more motivated and who better identify with their jobs are more likely to pay. Moreover, employees who spend more time on training and have less contact with new trends in their jobs, find it hard to keep calm in difficult situations, and have a greater predisposition toward effort, and preference for novelty, variety and challenges at work are more likely to purchase online training.

A new model of the role of psychological and emotional distress in promoting obesity: conceptual review with implications for treatment and prevention.

PubMed

Hemmingsson, E

2014-09-01

The lack of significant treatment and prevention progress highlights the need for a more expanded strategy. Given the robust association between socioeconomic factors and obesity, combined with new insights into how socioeconomic disadvantage affects both behaviour and biology, a new causal model is proposed. The model posits that psychological and emotional distress is a fundamental link between socioeconomic disadvantage and weight gain. At particular risk are children growing up in a disharmonious family environment, mainly caused by parental socioeconomic disadvantage, where they are exposed to parental frustrations, relationship discord, a lack of support and cohesion, negative belief systems, unmet emotional needs and general insecurity. Without adequate resilience, such experiences increase the risk of psychological and emotional distress, including low self-esteem and self-worth, negative emotions, negative self-belief, powerlessness, depression, anxiety, insecurity and a heightened sensitivity to stress. These inner disturbances eventually cause a psycho-emotional overload, triggering a cascade of weight gain-inducing effects including maladaptive coping strategies such as eating to suppress negative emotions, chronic stress, appetite up-regulation, low-grade inflammation and possibly reduced basal metabolism. Over time, this causes obesity, circular causality and further weight gain. Tackling these proposed root causes of weight gain could potentially improve both treatment and prevention outcomes. © 2014 The Author. obesity reviews © 2014 World Obesity.

Longitudinal association between cognitive performance and obsessive-compulsive symptoms in patients with psychosis and unaffected siblings.

PubMed

Schirmbeck, F; Swets, M; Meijer, C J; Zink, M; de Haan, L

2016-05-01

Obsessive-compulsive symptoms (OCS) frequently occur in psychotic disorders. Cross-sectional associations between OCS and cognitive impairment have led to different causal explanations. Whereas one assumes that higher cognitive impairment reflects a risk factor for psychotic patients to develop OCS, another suggests that deficits reflect a consequence of OCS. This study investigated the longitudinal interrelation between OCS and cognitive functioning. Baseline and follow-up data from 622 patients and 670 un-affected siblings from the 'Genetic Risk and Outcome in Psychosis' study were analyzed. Participants were allocated to groups according to the presence or absence of OCS at assessments and compared on several cognitive domains. Cross-sectional comparisons revealed no group differences in cognitive performance. Longitudinal analyses comparing the groups with changes in OCS revealed one significant group effect with more problems in set-shifting abilities in patient who reported OCS development at follow-up. Significant time and interaction effects were mainly due to improvement in immediate verbal recall and digit-symbol coding in patients and siblings who reported remission of OCS. Although insight into causality needs further exploration, our results do not confirm the hypothesis of pre-existing cognitive risk constellations. Findings suggest that remission of comorbid OCS results in improved immediate verbal recall and processing speed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dispositional Employability and Online Training Purchase. Evidence from Employees' Behavior in Spain

PubMed Central

Torrent-Sellens, Joan; Ficapal-Cusí, Pilar; Boada-Grau, Joan

2016-01-01

This article explores the relationship between dispositional employability and online training purchase. Through a sample of 883 employees working for enterprises in Spain, and a using principal component analysis and binomial logit probabilistic models, the research revealed two main results. First, it was found that dispositional employability is characterized by five factors: “openness to changes at work,” “career motivation and work resilience,” “work and career proactivity,” “optimism and engagement at work,” and “work identity.” Second, the research also found a double causality in the relationship analysis between dispositional employability and online training purchase. However, this causality is not direct. In explaining dispositional employability, certain motivations and types of behavior of employees participating in online training are significant. In particular, greater sensitivity toward career-related personal empowerment, a greater predisposition toward developing new experiences at work, and a greater awareness of the fact that positive job outcomes are related to preparation conscientiousness. In explaining online training purchase, employees who are more motivated and who better identify with their jobs are more likely to pay. Moreover, employees who spend more time on training and have less contact with new trends in their jobs, find it hard to keep calm in difficult situations, and have a greater predisposition toward effort, and preference for novelty, variety and challenges at work are more likely to purchase online training. PMID:27313557

Italian regional health system structure and expected cancer survival.

PubMed

Vercelli, Marina; Lillini, Roberto; Quaglia, Alberto; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Few studies deal with the association of socioeconomic and health system resource variables with cancer survival at the Italian regional level, where the greatest number of decisions about social and health policies and resource allocations are taken. The present study aimed to describe the causal relationships between socioeconomic and health system resource factors and regional cancer survival and to compute the expected cancer survival at provincial, regional and area levels. Age-standardized relative survival at 5 years from diagnosis of cases incident in 1995-1998 and followed up to 2004 were derived by gender for 11 sites from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries data bank. The socioeconomic and health system resource variables, describing at a regional level the macro-economy, demography, labor market, and health resources for 1995-2005, came from the Health for All database. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the socioeconomic and health system resource variables. For every site, linear regression models were computed considering the relative survival at 5 years as a dependent variable and the principal components factor analysis factors as independent variables. The factors described the socioeconomic and health-related features of the regional systems and were causally related to the characteristics of the patient taken in charge. The models built by the factors allowed computation of the expected relative survival at 5 years with very good concordance with those observed at regional, macro-regional and national levels. In the regions without any cancer registry, survival was coherent with that of neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic and health system resources characteristics. The models highlighted the causal correlations between socioeconomic and health system resources and cancer survival, suggesting that they could be good evaluation tools for the efficiency of the resources allocation and use.

A Developmental Study of School Theft.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dodson, Peter K.; Evans, Ellis D.

1985-01-01

Students (N=200) in grades 4 through 8 and 10 completed questionnaire measuring perceptions of school theft incidence and seriousness, personal responsibility for correcting theft, causal attributions of theft, and perceived consequences of thievery. Main grade effect was observed for personal responsibility and consequences, but represented…

Selection and explosive growth alter genetic architecture and hamper the detection of causal rare variants

PubMed Central

Zaitlen, Noah A.; Ye, Chun Jimmie; Witte, John S.

2016-01-01

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature. PMID:27197206

Association of physicians' illness perception of fibromyalgia with frustration and resistance to accepting patients: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Homma, Mieko; Ishikawa, Hirono; Kiuchi, Takahiro

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate whether physicians' illness perceptions correlate with their frustration or resistance to accepting patients with fibromyalgia (FM). In this cross-sectional postal survey, questionnaires were sent to member physicians of the Japan College of Rheumatology and Japan Rheumatism Foundation. Measures collected included the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire with Causal Attribution, the Illness Invalidation Inventory, and the Difficult Doctor-Patient Relationship Questionnaire (DDPRQ-10). Multiple logistic regression was performed to examine associations between the DDPRQ-10 and resistance to accepting patients with FM for treatment. We analyzed data from 233 physicians who had experience in consulting with patients with FM. Only 44.2 % answered that they wanted to accept additional patients with FM. Physicians' frustration was associated with difficulty controlling symptoms, patients' emotional responses, and causal attribution of FM to patient internal factors. Conversely, lower levels of frustration were associated with causal attributions to biological factors and uncontrollable external factors. However, the "difficult patient" perception did not correlate with resistance to accepting patients with FM. Difficulty controlling symptoms with treatment was the one factor common to both physicians' frustration and resistance to accepting patients with FM. Physicians may hesitate to accept patients with FM not because of the stigmatic image of the "difficult patient," but instead because of the difficulty in controlling the symptoms of FM. Thus, to improve the quality of consultation, physicians must continuously receive new information about the treatments and causes of FM.

Disentangling the Correlated Evolution of Monogamy and Cooperation.

PubMed

Dillard, Jacqueline R; Westneat, David F

2016-07-01

Lifetime genetic monogamy, by increasing sibling relatedness, has been proposed as an important causal factor in the evolution of altruism. Monogamy, however, could influence the subsequent evolution of cooperation in other ways. We present several alternative, non-mutually exclusive, evolutionary processes that could explain the correlated evolution of monogamy and cooperation. Our analysis of these possibilities reveals that many ecological or social factors can affect all three variables of Hamilton's Rule simultaneously, thus calling for a more holistic, systems-level approach to studying the evolution of social traits. This perspective reveals novel dimensions to coevolutionary relationships and provides solutions for assigning causality in complex cases of correlated social trait evolution, such as the sequential evolution of monogamy and cooperation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Landslide hazard prediction in the North-Eastern Apennines (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Disperati, L.; Guastaldi, E.; Rindinella, A.

2003-04-01

In order to assess the landslide hazard nearby the Pergola city (in the Northern-Eastern Apennines, Italy) a ground survey at a scale of 1:10,000 was performed for an extent of about 370 km^2 (Carmignani, 2001), and a GIS of landslides was built. Following statistical analysis allows to assess the correlation among landslide occurrences and causal factors related to the detachment zone (lithology, engineering geology, elevation, slope, aspect, bedding as related with slope face -RBS- and land use). Consequently, considering the morphological, lithological and anthropic characters of current slides, it was agreed to locate possible future landslides in those area actually stable but characterised by similar conditions. Because of that, a geostatistical analysis was performed. Comparing for every landslide the occurence of either single or combined causal factor, the analysis was carried out in grid format. The spatial analysis of the GIS data layers allowed building the unique condition regions (Chung et al., 1995) and creating statistical data on causal factors in relation of landslides. Afterwards, for every region the susceptibility to development of new occurrences (favourability mapping) was calculated by utilising the certainty factor (CF; Chung &Fabbri, 1993). For landslides where crown was identified, the main scarp was considered as occurrence; a buffer around the highest point of landslide was built for all the others (Disperati et al., 2002). Such procedure was applied both for slides (175 occurrences) and flows (464 occurrences). Furthermore, by the application of the procedure to causal factors and their combination, additional information regarding susceptibility to development of new occurrences was calculated. The selection of the most suitable factors combination can be done through the results accuracy assessment in relation of time and/or space (Chung, 1999), by utilising two different hazard information layers, respectively computed from a training dataset of occurrences and a test dataset, a cross validation is made. The valuation both for flows and slides was performed through Prediction Rate Curves (PRC). By utilising the occurrences of the test dataset, PRC derived from the relation between CF trend in the whole area (cumulative percentage), portion of total area and number of landslides. As result, engineering geology can be indicated as the dominant factor for PRC of flows; likewise engineering geology, land use and RBS combination is the more effective combination. On the other side, slope and aspect resulted less determinative in best PRC trend. Moreover, the combination of engineering geology and slope allowed the computation of best PRC for landslide. References CARMIGNANI L. (2001): Realizzazione della cartografia geologica e geotematica e dei relativi supporti informatici alla scala 1/10.000 -- Progetto 1 -- Zona Nord. Progetti strumentali alla funzione di ricostruzione. Interventi strutturali comunitari obiettivo 5b -- Misura 3.1.4 Azioni di ricostruzione e recupero del tessuto urbano infrastrutturale nei territori colpiti dal sisma (Azione 7). Contratto tra la Regione Marche -- Servizio Urbanistica e Cartografia e l'Università degli Studi di Siena. Rapporto Finale. Università degli Studi di Siena, Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra, Dicembre 200 1, pp. 6 I. CHUNG C. J. (1999): Prediction models in spatial data analysis for landslide hazard mapping -- Natural Resources Canada, Geological Survey of Canada-Mineral Resources Division-Spatial Data Analysis Laboratory, http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/gsc/mrd/sdalweb/landslides/index.htm. CHUNG C. J., FABBRI A.G. (1993): The representation of geoscience information for data integration. Non-renewable Resources, v. 2., n. 3, pp. 1 22-139. CHUNG C. J., FABBRI A.G., VAN WESTEN C.J (1995).- Multivariate regression analysis for landslide hazard zonation. In Carrara, A. and Guzzetti, F., eds.: "Geographical Information Systems in Assessing Natural Hazards". Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 107-133. DISPERATI L., GUASTALDI E., CARMIGNANI L. (2002)-- Landslide mapping and hazard prediction in the Pergola area (Marche, Italy). 8th Annual Conference of the International Association for Mathematical Geology, IAMG 2002, 15-20 September 2002, Berlin, Germany, Terra Nostra 04/2002, 2, pp. 507-512.

New insights in the pathogenesis of atopic disease.

PubMed

Ionescu, John G

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic-triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive-rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam-heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases.

Modelling runway incursion severity.

PubMed

Wilke, Sabine; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y

2015-06-01

Analysis of the causes underlying runway incursions is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation measures. However, there are significant weaknesses in the current methods to model these factors. This paper proposes a structured framework for modelling causal factors and their relationship to severity, which includes a description of the airport surface system architecture, establishment of terminological definitions, the determination and collection of appropriate data, the analysis of occurrences for severity and causes, and the execution of a statistical analysis framework. It is implemented in the context of U.S. airports, enabling the identification of a number of priority interventions, including the need for better investigation and causal factor capture, recommendations for airfield design, operating scenarios and technologies, and better training for human operators in the system. The framework is recommended for the analysis of runway incursions to support safety improvements and the methodology is transferable to other areas of aviation safety risk analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Insights in the Pathogenesis of Atopic Disease

PubMed Central

Ionescu, GJ

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic–triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive–rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam–heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases.

New Insights in the Pathogenesis of Atopic Disease

PubMed Central

John G., Ionescu

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic-triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive-rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam-heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases. PMID:20108533

The impact of airport characteristics on airport surface accidents and incidents.

PubMed

Wilke, Sabine; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y

2015-06-01

Airport surface safety and in particular runway and taxiway safety is acknowledged globally as one of aviation's greatest challenges. To improve this key area of aviation safety, it is necessary to identify and understand the causal and contributing factors on safety occurrences. While the contribution of human factors, operations, and procedures has been researched extensively, the impact of the airport and its associated characteristics itself has received little or no attention. This paper introduces a novel methodology for risk and hazard assessment of airport surface operations, and models the relationships between airport characteristics, and (a) the rate of occurrences, (b) the severity of occurrences, and (c) the causal factors underlying occurrences. The results show for the first time how the characteristics of airports, and in particular its infrastructure and operations, influence the safety of surface operations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. and National Safety Council. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneous rates for birth defects in Latin America: hints on causality.

PubMed

Lopez-Camelo, J S; Orioli, I M

1996-01-01

The aim of this work was to disclose risk factors associated with birth defects which were heterogeneously distributed in the different geographic regions sampled by the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC). The material included 2,159,065 hospital births, delivered in the 1967-1989 period in 24 geographic regions of Latin America. Birth defect types with 50 case-control pairs or more were analyzed. A risk factor was defined as that available variable with differential geographic rates, correlated with those of a given birth defect type. Identified factors were tested by case-control multivariate logistic regression to confirm their role in the occurrence of the defect. Altitude and maternal acute illness during first trimester of pregnancy, named influenza, were risk factors for microtia. Prenatal drug exposure, mainly sex hormones, were connected with the occurrence of hypospadias in low frequency areas, while Native ancestry was a "protective" factor in the same regions. Acute (influenza), and chronic (epilepsy and syphilis) maternal illness during first trimester of pregnancy and gravidity higher than four were risk factors for cleft lip. The independence of these variables from maternal age suggested that low maternal socioeconomic level could explain the high birth defect order and, perhaps, syphilis in mothers. Postaxial polydactyly was associated with parental consanguinity, as well as Afro-American ancestry, suggesting genetic heterogeneity.

Jordanian Pre-Service Teachers' and Technology Integration: A Human Resource Development Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Ruz, Jamal Abu; Khasawneh, Samer

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a model in which technology integration of pre-service teachers was predicted by a number of university-based and school-based factors. Initially, factors affecting technology integration were identified, and a research-based path model was developed to explain causal relationships between these factors. The…

Granger causal time-dependent source connectivity in the somatosensory network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lin; Sommerlade, Linda; Coffman, Brian; Zhang, Tongsheng; Stephen, Julia M.; Li, Dichen; Wang, Jue; Grebogi, Celso; Schelter, Bjoern

2015-05-01

Exploration of transient Granger causal interactions in neural sources of electrophysiological activities provides deeper insights into brain information processing mechanisms. However, the underlying neural patterns are confounded by time-dependent dynamics, non-stationarity and observational noise contamination. Here we investigate transient Granger causal interactions using source time-series of somatosensory evoked magnetoencephalographic (MEG) elicited by air puff stimulation of right index finger and recorded using 306-channel MEG from 21 healthy subjects. A new time-varying connectivity approach, combining renormalised partial directed coherence with state space modelling, is employed to estimate fast changing information flow among the sources. Source analysis confirmed that somatosensory evoked MEG was mainly generated from the contralateral primary somatosensory cortex (SI) and bilateral secondary somatosensory cortices (SII). Transient Granger causality shows a serial processing of somatosensory information, 1) from contralateral SI to contralateral SII, 2) from contralateral SI to ipsilateral SII, 3) from contralateral SII to contralateral SI, and 4) from contralateral SII to ipsilateral SII. These results are consistent with established anatomical connectivity between somatosensory regions and previous source modeling results, thereby providing empirical validation of the time-varying connectivity analysis. We argue that the suggested approach provides novel information regarding transient cortical dynamic connectivity, which previous approaches could not assess.

Evaluating Alcoholics Anonymous's effect on drinking in Project MATCH using cross-lagged regression panel analysis.

PubMed

Magura, Stephen; Cleland, Charles M; Tonigan, J Scott

2013-05-01

The objective of the study is to determine whether Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) participation leads to reduced drinking and problems related to drinking within Project MATCH (Matching Alcoholism Treatments to Client Heterogeneity), an existing national alcoholism treatment data set. The method used is structural equation modeling of panel data with cross-lagged partial regression coefficients. The main advantage of this technique for the analysis of AA outcomes is that potential reciprocal causation between AA participation and drinking behavior can be explicitly modeled through the specification of finite causal lags. For the outpatient subsample (n = 952), the results strongly support the hypothesis that AA attendance leads to increases in alcohol abstinence and reduces drinking/ problems, whereas a causal effect in the reverse direction is unsupported. For the aftercare subsample (n = 774), the results are not as clear but also suggest that AA attendance leads to better outcomes. Although randomized controlled trials are the surest means of establishing causal relations between interventions and outcomes, such trials are rare in AA research for practical reasons. The current study successfully exploited the multiple data waves in Project MATCH to examine evidence of causality between AA participation and drinking outcomes. The study obtained unique statistical results supporting the effectiveness of AA primarily in the context of primary outpatient treatment for alcoholism.

Comparison of opportunities to respond and generation effect as potential causal mechanisms for incremental rehearsal with multiplication combinations.

PubMed

Zaslofsky, Anne F; Scholin, Sarah E; Burns, Matthew K; Varma, Sashank

2016-04-01

Incremental rehearsal (IR) is an intervention with demonstrated effectiveness in increasing retention of information, yet little is known about how specific intervention components contribute to the intervention's effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to further the theoretical understanding of the intervention by comparing the effects of opportunities to respond (OTR) and generation demand on retention of multiplication combinations. Using a between subject 2 × 2 factorial design, 103 4th and 5th grade students were taught seven multiplication combinations using one of four versions of IR that orthogonally varied OTR (high versus low) and generation demands (high versus low). A two-way ANOVA revealed main effects for OTR, generation demands, and an interaction of the two factors. The effect of generation demands was large (d=1.31), whereas the overall effect of OTR was moderate (d=0.66). Critically, the two factors interacted, with the largest learning gains observed when OTR and generation demands were both high. The results of this study suggest that generation demand is an important factor in the effectiveness of rehearsal interventions. Copyright © 2016 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental influences on energy balance-related behaviors: A dual-process view

PubMed Central

Kremers, Stef PJ; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Visscher, Tommy LS; van Mechelen, Willem; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

2006-01-01

Background Studies on the impact of the 'obesogenic' environment have often used non-theoretical approaches. In this journal's debate and in other papers authors have argued the necessity of formulating conceptual models for differentiating the causal role of environmental influences on behavior. Discussion The present paper aims to contribute to the debate by presenting a dual-process view on the environment – behavior relationship. This view is conceptualized in the EnRG framework (Environmental Research framework for weight Gain prevention). In the framework, behavior is postulated to be the result of a simultaneous influence of conscious and unconscious processes. Environmental influences are hypothesized to influence behavior both indirectly and directly. The indirect causal mechanism reflects the mediating role of behavior-specific cognitions in the influence of the environment on behavior. A direct influence reflects the automatic, unconscious, influence of the environment on behavior. Specific personal and behavioral factors are postulated to moderate the causal path (i.e., inducing either the automatic or the cognitively mediated environment – behavior relation). In addition, the EnRG framework applies an energy balance-approach, stimulating the integrated study of determinants of diet and physical activity. Conclusion The application of a dual-process view may guide research towards causal mechanisms linking specific environmental features with energy balance-related behaviors in distinct populations. The present paper is hoped to contribute to the evolution of a paradigm that may help to disentangle the role of 'obesogenic' environmental factors. PMID:16700907

Causal Effect of Self-esteem on Cigarette Smoking Stages in Adolescents: Coarsened Exact Matching in a Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Khosravi, Ahmad; Mohammadpoorasl, Asghar; Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Pouyan, Ali Akbar; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-12-01

Identification of the causal impact of self-esteem on smoking stages faces seemingly insurmountable problems in observational data, where self-esteem is not manipulable by the researcher and cannot be assigned randomly. The aim of this study was to find out if weaker self-esteem in adolescence is a risk factor of cigarette smoking in a longitudinal study in Iran. In this longitudinal study, 4,853 students (14-18 years) completed a self-administered multiple-choice anonym questionnaire. The students were evaluated twice, 12 months apart. Students were matched based on coarsened exact matching on pretreatment variables, including age, gender, smoking stages at the first wave of study, socioeconomic status, general risk-taking behavior, having a smoker in the family, having a smoker friend, attitude toward smoking, and self-injury, to ensure statistically equivalent comparison groups. Self-esteem was measured using the Rosenberg 10-item questionnaire and were classified using a latent class analysis. After matching, the effect of self-esteem was evaluated using a multinomial logistic model. In the causal fitted model, for adolescents with weaker self-esteem relative to those with stronger self-esteem, the relative risk for experimenters and regular smokers relative to nonsmokers would be expected to increase by a factor of 2.2 (1.9-2.6) and 2.0 (1.5-2.6), respectively. Using a causal approach, our study indicates that low self-esteem is consistently associated with progression in cigarette smoking stages.

A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

PubMed

Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2018-01-01

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

Drug Induced Liver Injury: Can Biomarkers Assist RUCAM in Causality Assessment?

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel; Danan, Gaby

2017-01-01

Drug induced liver injury (DILI) is a potentially serious adverse reaction in a few susceptible individuals under therapy by various drugs. Health care professionals facing DILI are confronted with a wealth of drug-unrelated liver diseases with high incidence and prevalence rates, which can confound the DILI diagnosis. Searching for alternative causes is a key element of RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method) to assess rigorously causality in suspected DILI cases. Diagnostic biomarkers as blood tests would be a great help to clinicians, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry would be more comfortable if, in addition to RUCAM, causality of DILI can be confirmed. High specificity and sensitivity are required for any diagnostic biomarker. Although some risk factors are available to evaluate liver safety of drugs in patients, no valid diagnostic or prognostic biomarker exists currently for idiosyncratic DILI when a liver injury occurred. Identifying a biomarker in idiosyncratic DILI requires detailed knowledge of cellular and biochemical disturbances leading to apoptosis or cell necrosis and causing leakage of specific products in blood. As idiosyncratic DILI is typically a human disease and hardly reproducible in animals, pathogenetic events and resulting possible biomarkers remain largely undisclosed. Potential new diagnostic biomarkers should be evaluated in patients with DILI and RUCAM-based established causality. In conclusion, causality assessment in cases of suspected idiosyncratic DILI is still best achieved using RUCAM since specific biomarkers as diagnostic blood tests that could enhance RUCAM results are not yet available. PMID:28398242

What Can Causal Networks Tell Us about Metabolic Pathways?

PubMed Central

Blair, Rachael Hageman; Kliebenstein, Daniel J.; Churchill, Gary A.

2012-01-01

Graphical models describe the linear correlation structure of data and have been used to establish causal relationships among phenotypes in genetic mapping populations. Data are typically collected at a single point in time. Biological processes on the other hand are often non-linear and display time varying dynamics. The extent to which graphical models can recapitulate the architecture of an underlying biological processes is not well understood. We consider metabolic networks with known stoichiometry to address the fundamental question: “What can causal networks tell us about metabolic pathways?”. Using data from an Arabidopsis BaySha population and simulated data from dynamic models of pathway motifs, we assess our ability to reconstruct metabolic pathways using graphical models. Our results highlight the necessity of non-genetic residual biological variation for reliable inference. Recovery of the ordering within a pathway is possible, but should not be expected. Causal inference is sensitive to subtle patterns in the correlation structure that may be driven by a variety of factors, which may not emphasize the substrate-product relationship. We illustrate the effects of metabolic pathway architecture, epistasis and stochastic variation on correlation structure and graphical model-derived networks. We conclude that graphical models should be interpreted cautiously, especially if the implied causal relationships are to be used in the design of intervention strategies. PMID:22496633

Monitoring signals for vaccine safety: the assessment of individual adverse event reports by an expert advisory committee. Advisory Committee on Causality Assessment.

PubMed Central

Collet, J. P.; MacDonald, N.; Cashman, N.; Pless, R.

2000-01-01

Monitoring vaccine safety is a complex and shared responsibility. It can be carried out in many ways, one of which is the reporting of individual cases of adverse reactions thought to be due to vaccination. The task is difficult because ascribing causality to an individual case report is fraught with challenges. A standardized evaluation instrument--known as the causality assessment form--was therefore developed for use by an expert advisory committee to facilitate the process. By following the several sections in this form, the members of the committee are taken through a series of points to establish causality. These points include the basic criteria for causation such as biological plausibility, the time elapsed between the vaccine administration and the onset of the adverse event, and whether other factors (drugs, chemicals or underlying disease) could account for the adverse symptoms. The form concludes with a consensus assessment of causality, a commentary about the assessment, and advice for further study or follow-up. This method of assessing the more serious cases of adverse reaction reported to vaccination has proven useful in evaluating ongoing safety of vaccines in Canada. Through analyses such as this, new signals can be identified and investigated further. PMID:10743282

The psychophysics of comic: Effects of incongruity in causality and animacy.

PubMed

Parovel, Giulia; Guidi, Stefano

2015-07-01

According to several theories of humour (see Berger, 2012; Martin, 2007), incongruity - i.e., the presence of two incompatible meanings in the same situation - is a crucial condition for an event being evaluated as comical. The aim of this research was to test with psychophysical methods the role of incongruity in visual perception by manipulating the causal paradigm (Michotte, 1946/1963) to get a comic effect. We ran three experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the role of speed ratio between the first and the second movement, and the effect of animacy cues (i.e. frog-like and jumping-like trajectories) in the second movement; in Experiment 2, we manipulated the temporal delay between the movements to explore the relationship between perceptual causal contingencies and comic impressions; in Experiment 3, we compared the strength of the comic impressions arising from incongruent trajectories based on animacy cues with those arising from incongruent trajectories not based on animacy cues (bouncing and rotating) in the second part of the causal event. General findings showed that the paradoxical juxtaposition of a living behaviour in the perceptual causal paradigm is a powerful factor in eliciting comic appreciations, coherently with the Bergsonian perspective in particular (Bergson, 2003), and with incongruity theories in general. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DES daughters in France: experts' points of view on the various genital, uterine and obstetric pathologies, and in utero DES exposure.

PubMed

Clement, R; Guilbaud, E; Barrios, L; Rougé-Maillart, C; Jousset, N; Rodat, O

2014-10-01

Compensation of diethylstilbestrol exposure depends on the judicial system. In France, girls having been exposed to diethylstilbestrol are currently being compensated, and each exposure victim is being evaluated. Fifty-nine expert evaluations were studied to determine the causal relation between exposure to diethylstilbestrol and the pathologies attributable to diethylstilbestrol. The following were taken into consideration: age at the first signs of the pathology; age of the sufferer at the time of evaluation; the pathologies grouped into five categories: fertility disorders - cancers - mishaps during pregnancy - psychosomatic complaints - pathologies of "3rd generation DES victims"; submission of proof of DES exposure; the degree of causality determined (direct, indirect, ruled out). 61% of the cases related to fertility disorders, 28.8% to cancer pathologies (clear-cell adenocarcinoma), 18.6% to mishaps during pregnancy, 8.5% to disorders resulting from preterm delivery, and 3.4% to psychosomatic disorders. Some cases involved a combination of two types of complaints. Indirect causality was determined in 47.1% of the cases involving primary sterility, in 66.7% involving secondary sterility, and in 5 out of 6 cases of total sterility. There is direct causality between in utero diethylstilbestrol exposure and vaginal or cervical clear cell adenocarcinoma. Causality is indirect in the case of disorders linked to prematurity in third generation victims. Causality was determined by the experts on the basis of scientific criteria which attribute the presenting pathologies to diethylstilbestrol exposure. When other risk factors come into play, or when exposure is indirect (third generation), this causality is diminished. © IMechE 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland.

PubMed

Mantwill, Sarah; Schulz, Peter J

2016-01-01

This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. For both immigrant groups the physician's influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship.

Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Methods Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. Results For both immigrant groups the physician’s influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. Conclusion The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship. PMID:27583445

Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

PubMed

Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

2016-02-01

Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be present over a longer timespan than 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-organizing map analysis using multivariate data from theophylline tablets predicted by a thin-plate spline interpolation.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Obata, Yasuko; Yamamoto, Rie; Takayama, Kozo

2013-01-01

The "quality by design" concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires the establishment of a science-based rationale and a design space. We integrated thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation and Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline tablets were prepared based on a standard formulation. The tensile strength, disintegration time, and stability of these variables were measured as response variables. These responses were predicted quantitatively based on nonlinear TPS. A large amount of data on these tablets was generated and classified into several clusters using an SOM. The experimental values of the responses were predicted with high accuracy, and the data generated for the tablets were classified into several distinct clusters. The SOM feature map allowed us to analyze the global and local correlations between causal factors and tablet characteristics. The results of this study suggest that increasing the proportion of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) improved the tensile strength and the stability of tensile strength of these theophylline tablets. In addition, the proportion of MCC has an optimum value for disintegration time and stability of disintegration. Increasing the proportion of magnesium stearate extended disintegration time. Increasing the compression force improved tensile strength, but degraded the stability of disintegration. This technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline tablet formulations.

A Children of Twins Study of parental divorce and offspring psychopathology.

PubMed

D'Onofrio, Brian M; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E; Maes, Hermine H; Silberg, Judy; Eaves, Lindon J

2007-07-01

Although parental divorce is associated with increased substance use and internalizing problems, experiencing the separation of one's parents may not cause these outcomes. The relations may be due to genetic or environmental selection factors, characteristics that lead to both marital separation and offspring functioning. We used the Children of Twins (CoT) Design to explore whether unmeasured genetic or environmental factors related to the twin parent, and measured characteristics of both parents, account for the association between parental divorce and offspring substance use and internalizing problems. The association between parental divorce and offspring substance use problems remained robust when controlling for genetic and environmental risk from the twin parent associated with parental divorce, and measured characteristics of both parents. The results do not prove, but are consistent with, a causal connection. In contrast, the analyses suggest that shared genetic liability in parents and their offspring accounts for the increased risk of internalizing problems in adult offspring from divorced families. The study illustrates that unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying parental divorce. In explaining associations between parental divorce and young-adult adjustment, our evidence suggests that selection versus causal mechanisms may operate differently for substance abuse (a causal relation) and internalizing problems (an artifact of selection). The CoT design only controls for the genetic and environmental characteristics of one parent; thus, additional genetically informed analyses are needed.

Suppression of Story Character Goals during Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linderholm, Tracy; Gernsbacher, Morton Ann; van den Broek, Paul; Neninde, Lana; Robertson, Rachel R. W.; Sundermier, Brian

2004-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine how readers process narrative texts when the main character has multiple, and changing, goals. Readers must keep track of such goals to understand the causal relations between text events, an important process for comprehension. The structure building framework theory of reading proposes that readers…

Metabolic profiles of soybean roots during early stages of Fusarium tucumaniae infection

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soybean germplasm exhibits various levels of resistance to Fusarium tucumaniae, the main causal agent of sudden death syndrome (SDS) of soybean in Argentina. In this study, two soybean genotypes, one susceptible (NA 4613) and one partially resistant (DM 4670) to SDS infection, were inoculated with F...

A Genetic Linkage Map of Mycosphaerella Fijiensis, using SSR and DArT Markers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Mycosphaerella fijiensis is the causal agent of black leaf streak or Black Sigatoka disease in bananas. This pathogen threatens global banana production as the main export Cavendish cultivars are highly susceptible. Previously a genetic linkage map was generated predominantly using anonymous AFLP ma...

Math Anxiety and Math Ability in Early Primary School Years

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krinzinger, Helga; Kaufmann, Liane; Willmes, Klaus

2009-01-01

Mathematical learning disabilities (MLDs) are often associated with math anxiety, yet until now, very little is known about the causal relations between calculation ability and math anxiety during early primary school years. The main aim of this study was to longitudinally investigate the relationship between calculation ability, self-reported…

Detangling complex relationships in forensic data: principles and use of causal networks and their application to clinical forensic science.

PubMed

Lefèvre, Thomas; Lepresle, Aude; Chariot, Patrick

2015-09-01

The search for complex, nonlinear relationships and causality in data is hindered by the availability of techniques in many domains, including forensic science. Linear multivariable techniques are useful but present some shortcomings. In the past decade, Bayesian approaches have been introduced in forensic science. To date, authors have mainly focused on providing an alternative to classical techniques for quantifying effects and dealing with uncertainty. Causal networks, including Bayesian networks, can help detangle complex relationships in data. A Bayesian network estimates the joint probability distribution of data and graphically displays dependencies between variables and the circulation of information between these variables. In this study, we illustrate the interest in utilizing Bayesian networks for dealing with complex data through an application in clinical forensic science. Evaluating the functional impairment of assault survivors is a complex task for which few determinants are known. As routinely estimated in France, the duration of this impairment can be quantified by days of 'Total Incapacity to Work' ('Incapacité totale de travail,' ITT). In this study, we used a Bayesian network approach to identify the injury type, victim category and time to evaluation as the main determinants of the 'Total Incapacity to Work' (TIW). We computed the conditional probabilities associated with the TIW node and its parents. We compared this approach with a multivariable analysis, and the results of both techniques were converging. Thus, Bayesian networks should be considered a reliable means to detangle complex relationships in data.

Social determinants of common metabolic risk factors (high blood pressure, high blood sugar, high body mass index and high waist-hip ratio) of major non-communicable diseases in South Asia region: a systematic review protocol.

PubMed

Sharma, Sudesh Raj; Mishra, Shiva Raj; Wagle, Kusum; Page, Rachel; Matheson, Anna; Lambrick, Danielle; Faulkner, James; Lounsbury, David; Vaidya, Abhinav

2017-09-07

Prevalence of non-communicable diseases has been increasing at a greater pace in developing countries and, in particular, the South Asia region. Various behavioral, social and environmental factors present in this region perpetuate common metabolic risk factors of non-communicable diseases. This study will identify social determinants of common metabolic risk factors of major non-communicable diseases in the context of the South Asian region and map their causal pathway. A systematic review of selected articles will be carried out following Cochrane guidelines. Review will be guided by Social Determinants of Health Framework developed by the World Health Organization to extract social determinants of metabolic risk factors of non-communicable diseases from studies. A distinct search strategy will be applied using key words to screen relevant studies from online databases. Primary and grey literature published from the year 2000 to 2016 and studies with discussion on proximal and distal determinants of non-communicable risk factors among adults of the South Asia region will be selected. They will be further checked for quality, and a matrix illustrating contents of selected articles will be developed. Thematic content analysis will be done to trace social determinants and their interaction with metabolic risk factors. Findings will be illustrated in causal loop diagrams with social determinants of risk factors along with their interaction (feedback mechanism). The review will describe the interplay of social determinants of common NCD metabolic risk factors in the form of causal loop diagram. Findings will be structured in two parts: the first part will explain the linkage between proximal determinants with the metabolic risk factors and the second part will describe the linkage among the risk factors, proximal determinants and distal determinants. Evidences across different regions will be discussed to compare and validate and/or contrast the findings. Possible bias and limitations of this study will also be discussed. PROSPERO CRD42017067212.

Judgments of cause and blame: the effects of intentionality and foreseeability.

PubMed

Lagnado, David A; Channon, Shelley

2008-09-01

What are the factors that influence everyday attributions of cause and blame? The current studies focus on sequences of events that lead to adverse outcomes, and examine people's cause and blame ratings for key events in these sequences. Experiment 1 manipulated the intentional status of candidate causes and their location in a causal chain. Participants rated intentional actions as more causal, and more blameworthy, than unintentional actions or physical events. There was also an overall effect of location, with later events assigned higher ratings than earlier events. Experiment 2 manipulated both intentionality and foreseeability. The preference for intentional actions was replicated, and there was a strong influence of foreseeability: actions were rated as more causal and more blameworthy when they were highly foreseeable. These findings are interpreted within two prominent theories of blame, [Shaver, K. G. (1985). The attribution of blame: Causality, responsibility, and blameworthiness. New York: Springer-Verlag] and [Alicke, M. D. (2000). Culpable control and the psychology of blame. Psychological Bulletin, 126, 556-574]. Overall, it is argued that the data are more consistent with Alicke's model of culpable control.

Black Women's Achievement Orientation: Motivational and Cognitive Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Saundra Rice; Mednick, Martha Tamara Shuch

1977-01-01

The literature on motivational and cognitive factors related to the achievement orientation of black women is reviewed. Achievement motivation and fear of success are discussed, and the inconclusiveness of the findings for black women is noted. Limited data concerning black women's expectations for and causal attributions about achievement…

Sustainability Reporting Experience by Universities: A Causal Configuration Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zorio-Grima, Ana; Sierra-García, Laura; Garcia-Benau, Maria A.

2018-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to identify the combinations of factors leading to experience in sustainability reporting by Spanish public universities. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample of 49 public universities in Spain, this paper identifies the combinations of factors on innovation profile, political and internal factors…

The multidimensional causal factors of 'wet litter' in chicken-meat production.

PubMed

Dunlop, Mark W; Moss, Amy F; Groves, Peter J; Wilkinson, Stuart J; Stuetz, Richard M; Selle, Peter H

2016-08-15

The problem of 'wet litter', which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The association between tobacco and the risk of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in children and adolescents: analyses from Phase Three of the ISAAC programme.

PubMed

Mitchell, Edwin A; Beasley, Richard; Keil, Ulrich; Montefort, Stephen; Odhiambo, Joseph

2012-11-01

Exposure to parental smoking is associated with wheeze in early childhood, but in 2006 the US Surgeon General stated that the evidence is insufficient to infer a causal relationship between exposure and asthma in childhood and adolescents. To examine the association between maternal and paternal smoking and symptoms of asthma, eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis. Parents or guardians of children aged 6-7 years completed written questionnaires about symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema, and several risk factors, including maternal smoking in the child's first year of life, current maternal smoking (and amount) and paternal smoking. Adolescents aged 13-14 years self completed the questionnaires on these symptoms and whether their parents currently smoked. In the 6-7-year age group there were 220 407 children from 75 centres in 32 countries. In the 13-14-year age group there were 350 654 adolescents from 118 centres in 53 countries. Maternal and paternal smoking was associated with an increased risk of symptoms of asthma, eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis in both age groups, although the magnitude of the OR is higher for symptoms of asthma than the other outcomes. Maternal smoking is associated with higher ORs than paternal smoking. For asthma symptoms there is a clear dose relationship (1-9 cigarettes/day, OR 1.27; 10-19 cigarettes/day, OR 1.35; and 20+ cigarettes/day, OR 1.56). When maternal smoking in the child's first year of life and current maternal smoking are considered, the main effect is due to maternal smoking in the child's first year of life. There was no interaction between maternal and paternal smoking. This study has confirmed the importance of maternal smoking, and the separate and additional effect of paternal smoking. The presence of a dose-response effect relationship with asthma symptoms suggests that the relationship is causal, however for eczema and rhinoconjunctivitis causality is less certain.

Mental health problems in the 10th grade and non-completion of upper secondary school: the mediating role of grades in a population-based longitudinal study

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background School drop-out is a problem all over the world with adverse life-course consequences. The aim of this paper is to study how internalising and externalising problems in the 10th grade are associated with non-completion of upper secondary school, and to examine the mediating role of grade points in the 10th grade across general academic and vocational tracks in upper secondary school. We also study the impact of health behaviour. Methods Population-based health surveys were linked with Norwegian registries on education and sociodemographic factors (n = 10 931). Mental health was assessed by the self-report Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to analyse the relations between mental health and health behaviour in 10th grade and non-completion of upper secondary school. The mediating effect of grade points was studied by causal mediation analysis. Results Adolescents not completing upper secondary school reported more externalising problems and girls more internalising problems in the 10th grade, after adjustments. Smoking and physical inactivity increased the odds of non-completion of upper secondary school. Causal mediation analyses showed that a reduction in externalising problems of 10 percentage points led to lower rates of non-completion of 4–5 percentage points, and about three-quarters of this total effect was mediated by grades. For internalising problems the total effect was significant only for girls (1 percentage point), and the mediated effect of grades was about 30%. The effect of mental health problems on school dropout was mainly the same in both vocational and general tracks. Conclusions Assuming a causal relationship from mental health problems to school performance, this study suggests that externalising problems impair educational attainment. A reduction of such problems may improve school performance, reduce school drop-out and reduce the adverse life-course consequences. PMID:24406098

Inferring causes during speech perception.

PubMed

Liu, Linda; Jaeger, T Florian

2018-05-01

One of the central challenges in speech perception is the lack of invariance: talkers differ in how they map words onto the speech signal. Previous work has shown that one mechanism by which listeners overcome this variability is adaptation. However, talkers differ in how they pronounce words for a number of reasons, ranging from more permanent, characteristic factors such as having a foreign accent, to more temporary, incidental factors, such as speaking with a pen in the mouth. One challenge for listeners is that the true cause underlying atypical pronunciations is never directly known, and instead must be inferred from (often causally ambiguous) evidence. In three experiments, we investigate whether these inferences underlie speech perception, and how the speech perception system deals with uncertainty about competing causes for atypical pronunciations. We find that adaptation to atypical pronunciations is affected by whether the atypical pronunciations are seen as characteristic or incidental. Furthermore, we find that listeners are able to maintain information about previous causally ambiguous pronunciations that they experience, and use this previously experienced evidence to drive their adaptation after additional evidence has disambiguated the cause. Our findings revise previous proposals that causally ambiguous evidence is ignored during speech adaptation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Social Modulation of Imitation Fidelity in School-Age Children

PubMed Central

Marsh, Lauren E.; Ropar, Danielle; Hamilton, Antonia F. de C.

2014-01-01

Children copy the actions of others with high fidelity, even when they are not causally relevant. This copying of visibly unnecessary actions is termed overimitation. Many competing theories propose mechanisms for overimitation behaviour. The present study examines these theories by studying the social factors that lead children to overimitate actions. Ninety-four children aged 5- to 8-years each completed five trials of an overimitation task. Each trial provided the opportunity to overimitate an action on familiar objects with minimal causal reasoning demands. Social cues (live or video demonstration) and eye contact from the demonstrator were manipulated. After the imitation, children's ratings of action rationality were collected. Substantial overimitation was seen which increased with age. In older children, overimitation was higher when watching a live demonstrator and when eye contact was absent. Actions rated as irrational were more likely to be imitated than those rated as rational. Children overimitated actions on familiar objects even when they rated those actions as irrational, suggesting that failure of causal reasoning cannot be driving overimitation. Our data support social explanations of overimitation and show that the influence of social factors increases with age over the 5- to 8-year-old age range. PMID:24465913

An Analysis on the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines: A Time Series Data Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Tampis, R. L.; E Atienza, JB

2017-03-01

This study aims to formulate a mathematical model for forecasting and estimating unemployment rate in the Philippines. Also, factors which can predict the unemployment is to be determined among the considered variables namely Labor Force Rate, Population, Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross National Income. Granger-causal relationship and integration among the dependent and independent variables are also examined using Pairwise Granger-causality test and Johansen Cointegration Test. The data used were acquired from the Philippine Statistics Authority, National Statistics Office, and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Following the Box-Jenkins method, the formulated model for forecasting the unemployment rate is SARIMA (6, 1, 5) × (0, 1, 1)4 with a coefficient of determination of 0.79. The actual values are 99 percent identical to the predicted values obtained through the model, and are 72 percent closely relative to the forecasted ones. According to the results of the regression analysis, Labor Force Rate and Population are the significant factors of unemployment rate. Among the independent variables, Population, GDP, and GNI showed to have a granger-causal relationship with unemployment. It is also found that there are at least four cointegrating relations between the dependent and independent variables.

Epidemiología genética sobre las teorías causales y la patogénesis de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2.

PubMed

Castro-Juárez, Carlos Jonnathan; Ramírez-García, Sergio Alberto; Villa-Ruano, Nemesio; García-Cruz, Diana

2017-01-01

Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) is a worldwide public health problem. The etiology of the disease is multifactorial and is characterized by great heterogeneity of metabolic disorders. The most common are the insufficient production of insulin, insulin resistance and impaired incretin system. The specialist must understand the multi-causal nature of DM2 in the post-genomic era. This nature is determined by the additive effect of genes and environment, so there is no simple genetic epidemiological model to explain the inheritance pattern. Hence the need to establish the proportion of disease that is determined by genes and the contribution of environmental factors, the combination of which regulates the threshold or tolerance level for diabetes development. Given this complexity in DM2 in this work are discussed the various existing theories of causality of this disease, which will permit us to understand the interaction between the environment and the human genome, and also to know how risk factors or predisposition to this disease influence, laying the grounds that delimit environment interaction with the genome. Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud.

Causality in cancer epidemiology.

PubMed

Lagiou, Pagona; Adami, Hans-Olov; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios

2005-01-01

In this review, issues of causality in epidemiologic research with emphasis on the aetiology of human cancer are considered. Principles of assessing causation in epidemiological studies of cancer are distinguished into those concerning an individual study, several studies and a particular person. Strengths and weaknesses of various approaches of documenting carcinogenicity in humans are examined and lists of major established causes of human cancer are presented. The review concludes with estimates of mortality from cancer around the world that can be attributed to specific factors under the light of the current scientific knowledge.

"It Was My Fault": Bullied Students' Causal and Controllable Attributions in Bullying Blogs.

PubMed

Danielson, Carly M; Emmers-Sommer, Tara M

2016-01-01

Student bullying is a growing and damaging social problem. The devastating outcomes bullied individuals often experience due to such treatment make understanding this phenomenon imperative. Utilizing Heider's (1958) attribution theory, this study explores how bullied students (n = 100) attribute locus of causality and controllability for their victimization in 5 bullying blogs. Findings from this investigation reveal that (a) male and female bloggers' causal and controllable attributions do not differ; (b) bloggers most often attribute blame to bullies, although a noteworthy portion also attribute internal causation; and (c) bloggers often attribute bullying as uncontrollable for several reasons. This study also identifies factors that influence shifts in negative attributions about bullying. These findings inform bullying programs with the hope of reducing destructive attribution formations that potentially lead to prolonged victimization and detrimental consequences.

Using multiple cause-of-death data to investigate associations and causality between conditions listed on the death certificate.

PubMed

Redelings, Matthew D; Wise, Matthew; Sorvillo, Frank

2007-07-01

Death rarely results from only one cause, and it can be caused by a variety of factors. Multiple cause-of-death data files can list as many as 20 contributing causes of death in addition to the reported underlying cause of death. Analysis of multiple cause-of-death data can provide information on associations between causes of death, revealing common combinations of events or conditions which lead to death. Additionally, physicians report the causal train of events through which they believe that different conditions or events may have led to each other and ultimately caused death. In this paper, the authors discuss methods used in studying associations between reported causes of death and in investigating commonly reported causal pathways between events or conditions listed on the death certificate.

Activation of intestinal hypoxia-inducible factor 2α during obesity contributes to hepatic steatosis.

PubMed

Xie, Cen; Yagai, Tomoki; Luo, Yuhong; Liang, Xianyi; Chen, Tao; Wang, Qiong; Sun, Dongxue; Zhao, Jie; Ramakrishnan, Sadeesh K; Sun, Lulu; Jiang, Chunmei; Xue, Xiang; Tian, Yuan; Krausz, Kristopher W; Patterson, Andrew D; Shah, Yatrik M; Wu, Yue; Jiang, Changtao; Gonzalez, Frank J

2017-11-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is becoming the most common chronic liver disease in Western countries, and limited therapeutic options are available. Here we uncovered a role for intestinal hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) in hepatic steatosis. Human-intestine biopsies from individuals with or without obesity revealed that intestinal HIF-2α signaling was positively correlated with body-mass index and hepatic toxicity. The causality of this correlation was verified in mice with an intestine-specific disruption of Hif2a, in which high-fat-diet-induced hepatic steatosis and obesity were substantially lower as compared to control mice. PT2385, a HIF-2α-specific inhibitor, had preventive and therapeutic effects on metabolic disorders that were dependent on intestine HIF-2α. Intestine HIF-2α inhibition markedly reduced intestine and serum ceramide levels. Mechanistically, intestine HIF-2α regulates ceramide metabolism mainly from the salvage pathway, by positively regulating the expression of Neu3, the gene encoding neuraminidase 3. These results suggest that intestinal HIF-2α could be a viable target for hepatic steatosis therapy.

Familial mixed nephrocalcinosis as a cause of chronic kidney failure: two case reports.

PubMed

de Arruda, Pedro Francisco Ferraz; Gatti, Márcio; de Arruda, José Germano Ferraz; Fácio, Fernando Nestor; Spessoto, Luis Cesar Fava; de Arruda, Laísa Ferraz; de Godoy, José Maria Pereira; Godoy, Moacir Fernandes

2014-10-27

Nephrocalcinosis consists of the deposition of calcium salts in the renal parenchyma and is considered the mixed form when it involves the renal cortex and medulla. The main etiological agents of this condition are primary hyperparathyroidism, renal tubular acidosis, medullary sponge kidney, hyperoxaluria and taking certain drugs. These factors can lead to hypercalcemia and/or hypercalciuria, which can give rise to nephrocalcinosis. Patient 1 was a 48-year-old Caucasian woman with a history of bilateral nephrocalcinosis causing chronic kidney failure. Imaging examinations (X-ray, ultrasound and computed tomography of the abdomen) revealed extensive calcium deposits in the renal parenchyma, indicating nephrocalcinosis as the causal factor of the disease. Patient 2 is the 45-year-old brother of patient 1. He exhibited an advanced stage of chronic kidney failure. As nephrocalcinosis is considered to have a genetic component, a family investigation revealed this condition in patient 2. Nephrocalcinosis may be detected incidentally through diagnostic imaging studies. Whenever possible, treatment should include the base disease that caused the appearance of the calcification, as the precise etiological determination is extremely important.

Cognitive Developmental Phenomena of Pre-School Children in Relation to Socio-Economic Status, Anthropometric Status, and Home Environmental Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jena, Ananta Kumar; Paul, Bhabatosh

2016-01-01

The present study was a causality study that investigate the effects of conditional factors; if x, y & z are the independent factors (e.g. socio-economic status, Anthropometric status, and home environmental status) on the dependent factors (e.g. memory, social skill, language acquisition, logical reasoning, and problem solving). The present…

The Construct Validity of Higher Order Structure-of-Intellect Abilities in a Battery of Tests Emphasizing the Product of Transformations: A Confirmatory Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Ali-Maher; And Others

1982-01-01

A causal modeling system, using confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis with the LISREL IV computer program, evaluated the construct validity underlying the higher order factor structure of a given correlation matrix of 46 structure-of-intellect tests emphasizing the product of transformations. (Author/PN)

Exploring key factors in online shopping with a hybrid model.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiao-Ming; Wu, Chia-Huei; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Yu, Jian; Wang, Jiangtao; Zheng, Yuxiang

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the web increasingly influences retail sales. An in-depth analysis of consumer decision-making in the context of e-business has become an important issue for internet vendors. However, factors affecting e-business are complicated and intertwined. To stimulate online sales, understanding key influential factors and causal relationships among the factors is important. To gain more insights into this issue, this paper introduces a hybrid method, which combines the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) with the analytic network process, called DANP method, to find out the driving factors that influence the online business mostly. By DEMATEL approach the causal graph showed that "online service" dimension has the highest degree of direct impact on other dimensions; thus, the internet vendor is suggested to made strong efforts on service quality throughout the online shopping process. In addition, the study adopted DANP to measure the importance of key factors, among which "transaction security" proves to be the most important criterion. Hence, transaction security should be treated with top priority to boost the online businesses. From our study with DANP approach, the comprehensive information can be visually detected so that the decision makers can spotlight on the root causes to develop effectual actions.

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

PubMed Central

Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

2015-01-01

Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors causally associated with violence. PMID:26554711

Detecting the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration in the Jing-Jin-Ji region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ziyue; Cai, Jun; Gao, Bingbo; Xu, Bing; Dai, Shuang; He, Bin; Xie, Xiaoming

2017-01-01

Due to complicated interactions in the atmospheric environment, quantifying the influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration remains challenging. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (short for Jing-Jin-Ji) region is infamous for its serious air pollution. To improve regional air quality, characteristics and meteorological driving forces for PM2.5 concentration should be better understood. This research examined seasonal variations of PM2.5 concentration within the Jing-Jin-Ji region and extracted meteorological factors strongly correlated with local PM2.5 concentration. Following this, a convergent cross mapping (CCM) method was employed to quantify the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. The results proved that the CCM method was more likely to detect mirage correlations and reveal quantitative influences of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. For the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the higher PM2.5 concentration, the stronger influences meteorological factors exert on PM2.5 concentration. Furthermore, this research suggests that individual meteorological factors can influence local PM2.5 concentration indirectly by interacting with other meteorological factors. Due to the significant influence of local meteorology on PM2.5 concentration, more emphasis should be given on employing meteorological means for improving local air quality.

Obesity and peripheral arterial disease: A Mendelian Randomization analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Ya; Xu, Min; Xie, Lan; Wang, Tiange; Huang, Xiaolin; Lv, Xiaofei; Chen, Ying; Ding, Lin; Lin, Lin; Wang, Weiqing; Bi, Yufang; Sun, Yimin; Zhang, Yifei; Ning, Guang

2016-04-01

Observational studies showed that obesity is a major risk factor for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). However, conventional epidemiology studies are vulnerable to residual bias from confounding factors. We aimed to explore the causality of obesity in development of PAD using Mendelian Randomization (MR) approach. A MR analysis was performed in 11,477 community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above recruited from two nearby communities during 2011-2013 in Shanghai, China. We genotyped 14 body mass index (BMI) associated common variants identified and validated in East Asians. PAD was defined as ankle-to-brachial index (ABI) <0.90 or >1.40. Weighted BMI genetic risk score (GRS) was used as the Instrumental Variable (IV). After adjusted for confounding factors, we found that each standard deviation (SD, 2.76 points) increase in BMI-GRS was associated with 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36-0.49) kg/m(2) increase in BMI (P < 0.0001) and an odds ratio (OR) for PAD of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07-1.27; P = 0.0004). Compared with the lowest quartile of BMI-GRS, the second, third and highest quartile associated with 9%, 19% and 45% increment of PAD risk, respectively (P for trend = 0.002). In the MR analysis, we demonstrated a causal relationship between obesity and PAD (OR = 1.44 per BMI-unit, 95% CI: 1.18-1.75; P = 0.0003). This study suggested that obesity may be causally associated with PAD after controlling for the potential intermediate factors like hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Organizational factors affecting length of stay in the emergency department: initial observational study.

PubMed

Bashkin, Osnat; Caspi, Sigalit; Haligoa, Rachel; Mizrahi, Sari; Stalnikowicz, Ruth

2015-01-01

Length of stay (LOS) is considered a key measure of emergency department throughput, and from the perspective of the patient, it is perceived as a measure of healthcare service quality. Prolonged LOS can be caused by various internal and external factors. This study examined LOS in the emergency department and explored the main factors that influence LOS and cause delay in patient care. Observations of 105 patients were performed over a 3-month period at the emergency room of a community urban hospital. Observers monitored patients from the moment of entrance to the department until discharge or admission to another hospital ward. Analysis revealed a general average total emergency department LOS of 438 min. Significant differences in average LOS were found between admitted patients (Mean = 544 min, SD = 323 min) and discharged patients (Mean = 291 min, SD = 286 min). In addition, nurse and physician change of shifts and admissions to hospital wards were found to be significant factors associated with LOS. Using an Ishikawa causal diagram, we explored various latent organizational factors that may prolong this time. The study identified several factors that are associated with high average emergency department LOS. High LOS may lead to increases in expenditures and may have implications for patient safety, whereas certain organizational changes, communication improvement, and time management may have a positive effect on it. Interdisciplinary methods can be used to explore factors causing prolonged emergency department LOS and contribute to a better understanding of them.

Causes of male infertility: a 9-year prospective monocentre study on 1737 patients with reduced total sperm counts

PubMed Central

Punab, M.; Poolamets, O.; Paju, P.; Vihljajev, V.; Pomm, K.; Ladva, R.; Korrovits, P.; Laan, M.

2017-01-01

STUDY QUESTION What are the primary causes of severe male factor infertility? SUMMARY ANSWER Although 40% of all patients showed primary causes of infertility, which could be subdivided into three groups based on the severity of their effect, ~75% of oligozoospermia cases remained idiopathic. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY There are few large-scale epidemiological studies analyzing the causes of male factor infertility. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A prospective clinical-epidemiological study was conducted at the Andrology Centre, Tartu University Hospital between 2005 and 2013, recruiting male partners of couples failing to conceive a child for over ≥12 months. Among 8518 patients, 1737 (20.4%) were diagnosed with severe male factor infertility. A reference group of fertile controls was comprised of 325 partners of pregnant women. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS The mean age of infertility patients and fertile controls was 33.2 ± 7.3 and 31.7 ± 6.3 years, respectively. All participants were examined using a standardized andrology workup, accompanied by a structured medical interview. Hormonal analysis included serum FSH, LH and testosterone. Semen quality was determined in accordance to the World Health Organization recommendations. Cases with spermatozoa concentrations of ≤5 million/ml were screened for chromosomal aberrations and Y-chromosomal microdeletions. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE The primary cause of infertility was defined for 695 of 1737 patients (~40%). The analyzed causal factors could be divided into absolute (secondary hypogonadism, genetic causes, seminal tract obstruction), severe (oncological diseases, severe sexual dysfunction) and plausible causal factors (congenital anomalies in uro-genital tract, acquired or secondary testicular damage). The latter were also detected for 11 (3.4%) men with proven fertility (diagnoses: unilateral cryptorchidism, testis cancer, orchitis, mumps orchitis). The causal factors behind the most severe forms of impaired spermatogenesis were relatively well understood; causes were assigned: for aspermia in 46/46 cases (100%), for azoospermia in 321/388 cases (82.7%), and for cryptozoospermia in 54/130 cases (41.5%). In contrast, 75% of oligozoospermia cases remained unexplained. The main cause of aspermia was severe sexual dysfunction (71.7% of aspermia patients). Azoospermia patients accounted for 86.4% of all cases diagnosed with secondary hypogonadism and 97.1% of patients with seminal tract obstruction. Of patients with a known genetic factor, 87.4% had extreme infertility (azoo-, crypto- or aspermia). The prevalence of congenital anomalies in the uro-genital tract was not clearly correlated with the severity of impaired sperm production. Previously defined ‘potential contributing factors’ varicocele and leukocytospermia were excluded as the primary causes of male infertility. However, their incidence was >2-fold higher (31.0 vs 13.5% and 16.1 vs 7.4%; P < 0.001) in the idiopathic infertility group compared to controls. In addition, the proportions of overweight (or obese) patients and patients suffering from a chronic disease were significantly increased in almost all of the patient subgroups. LIMITATIONS REASONS FOR CAUTION The study included only subjects with reduced total spermatozoa counts. Thus, these findings cannot be automatically applied to all male factor infertility cases. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The novel insights and improved clarity achieved in the comprehensive analysis regarding the absolute, causative and plausible factors behind male infertility, as well as the ‘potential contributing factors’, will be valuable tools in updating the current clinical guidelines. The study highlights knowledge gaps and reiterates an urgent need to uncover the causes and mechanisms behind, and potential treatments of, oligozoospermic cases, representing the majority of idiopathic infertility patients (86.3%). STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The project was financed by the EU through the ERDF, project HAPPY PREGNANCY, no. 3.2.0701.12-004 (M.P., M.L.) and the Estonian Research Council: grants PUT181 (M.P.) and IUT34-12 (M.L.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We have no competing interests to declare. TRAIL  REGISTRATION NUMBER Not applicable PMID:27864361

[The assesment of cranio-cerebral injuries in the aspect of neurological, psychiatric and certification criteria].

PubMed

Maksymowicz, Krzysztof; Piechocki, Dariusz; Drozd, Radosław

2005-01-01

In this paper an effort has been made to explain and systemize the notions of encephalopathy, psycho organic syndrome, characteropathy, seen as consequences of cranio-cerebral injuries, and regarding neurological, psychiatric and certificating criteria. The main aim of this classification is to define the necessary conditions needed to confirm or exclude the presence of neurological changes mentioned above. The conditions should be acceptable from the neurological, psychiatric and certificating points of view. The certificating experience of the authors shows that there are vast differences among criteria applied by neurologists, psychiatrists and certificating doctors in assessing the consequences of cranio-cerebral injuries. Moreover, in the above paper various injury and disease factors have been presented and discussed. Although they do not remain in any causal connection with the assessed event, they have a significant influence on the final result of the medical certification.

Obesity: Pathophysiology and Intervention

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yi; Liu, Ju; Yao, Jianliang; Ji, Gang; Qian, Long; Wang, Jing; Zhang, Guansheng; Tian, Jie; Nie, Yongzhan; Zhang, Yi Edi.; Gold, Mark S.; Liu, Yijun

2014-01-01

Obesity presents a major health hazard of the 21st century. It promotes co-morbid diseases such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea, certain types of cancer, and osteoarthritis. Excessive energy intake, physical inactivity, and genetic susceptibility are main causal factors for obesity, while gene mutations, endocrine disorders, medication, or psychiatric illnesses may be underlying causes in some cases. The development and maintenance of obesity may involve central pathophysiological mechanisms such as impaired brain circuit regulation and neuroendocrine hormone dysfunction. Dieting and physical exercise offer the mainstays of obesity treatment, and anti-obesity drugs may be taken in conjunction to reduce appetite or fat absorption. Bariatric surgeries may be performed in overtly obese patients to lessen stomach volume and nutrient absorption, and induce faster satiety. This review provides a summary of literature on the pathophysiological studies of obesity and discusses relevant therapeutic strategies for managing obesity. PMID:25412152

Is There an Islamist Political Advantage?

PubMed Central

Cammett, Melani; Luong, Pauline Jones

2014-01-01

There is a widespread presumption that Islamists have an advantage over their opponents when it comes to generating mass appeal and winning elections. The question remains, however, as to whether these advantages—or, what we refer to collectively as an Islamist political advantage—actually exist. We argue that—to the extent that Islamists have a political advantage—the primary source of this advantage is reputation rather than the provision of social services, organizational capacity, or ideological hegemony. Our purpose is not to dismiss the main sources of the Islamist governance advantage identified in scholarly literature and media accounts, but to suggest a different causal path whereby each of these factors individually and sometimes jointly promotes a reputation for Islamists as competent, trustworthy, and pure. It is this reputation for good governance that enables Islamists to distinguish themselves in the streets and at the ballot box. PMID:25767370

Worksite Environmental Interventions for Obesity Prevention and Control: Evidence from Group Randomized Trials.

PubMed

Fernandez, Isabel Diana; Becerra, Adan; Chin, Nancy P

2014-06-01

Worksites provide multiple advantages to prevent and treat obesity and to test environmental interventions to tackle its multiple causal factors. We present a literature review of group-randomized and non-randomized trials that tested worksite environmental, multiple component interventions for obesity prevention and control paying particular attention to the conduct of formative research prior to intervention development. The evidence on environmental interventions on measures of obesity appears to be strong since most of the studies have a low (4/8) and unclear (2/8) risk of bias. Among the studies reviewed whose potential risk of bias was low, the magnitude of the effect was modest and sometimes in the unexpected direction. None of the four studies describing an explicit formative research stage with clear integration of findings into the intervention was able to demonstrate an effect on the main outcome of interest. We present alternative explanation for the findings and recommendations for future research.

Models for preclinical studies in aging-related disorders: One is not for all

PubMed Central

Santulli, Gaetano; Borras, Consuelo; Bousquet, Jean; Calzà, Laura; Cano, Antonio; Illario, Maddalena; Franceschi, Claudio; Liotta, Giuseppe; Maggio, Marcello; Molloy, William D.; Montuori, Nunzia; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Orfila, Francesc; Rauter, Amelia P.; Santoro, Aurelia; Iaccarino, Guido

2015-01-01

Preclinical studies are essentially based on animal models of a particular disease. The primary purpose of preclinical efficacy studies is to support generalization of treatment–effect relationships to human subjects. Researchers aim to demonstrate a causal relationship between an investigational agent and a disease-related phenotype in such models. Numerous factors can muddle reliable inferences about such cause-effect relationships, including biased outcome assessment due to experimenter expectations. For instance, responses in a particular inbred mouse might be specific to the strain, limiting generalizability. Selecting well-justified and widely acknowledged model systems represents the best start in designing preclinical studies, especially to overcome any potential bias related to the model itself. This is particularly true in the research that focuses on aging, which carries unique challenges, mainly attributable to the fact that our already long lifespan makes designing experiments that use people as subjects extremely difficult and largely impractical. PMID:27042427

[Abortion and crime].

PubMed

Citoni, Guido

2011-01-01

In this article we address the issue, with a tentative empirical application to the Italian data, of the relationship, very debated mainly in north America, between abortion legalization and reduction of crime rates of youth. The rationale of this relationship is that there is a causal factor at work: the more unwanted pregnancies aborted, the less unwanted children breeding their criminal attitude in an hostile/deprived family environment. Many methodological and empirical criticisms have been raised against the proof of the existence of such a relationship: our attempt to test if this link is valid for Italy cannot endorse its existence. The data we used made necessary some assumptions and the reliability of official estimates of crime rates was debatable (probably downward biased). We conclude that, at least for Italy, the suggested relationship is unproven: other reasons for the need of legal abortion have been and should be put forward.

[Hand-arm vibration syndrome in a nurse carrying out gypsum cutting operations].

PubMed

Speziale, Martina; Picchiotti, E

2009-01-01

A professional nurse, employed mainly on gypsum cutting operations, developed a hand-arm vibration syndrome with Raynaud's phenomenon, neurosensitive disorders and impairment of the bone and joints apparatus of the hand and arm. The nurse underwent diagnostic investigations (cold test, X-ray of the upper limbs, blood tests); also the vibration levels transmitted from instrument were measured and the exposure times were established. Clinical investigations showed the presence of a hand-arm vibration syndrome with secondary Raynaud's phenomenon and environmental surveys revealed very high vibration levels, such as could be associated with the disease with a causal relationship. In the literature no reports exist of the vibration syndrome being associated with health care workers in orthopaedic departments. The case described in this study occurred because of peculiar organisational factors that most likely have never occurred in other hospitals or orthopaedic departments.

Helicobacter pylori infection as a cause of gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia: a systematic overview.

PubMed

Veldhuyzen van Zanten, S J; Sherman, P M

1994-01-15

To evaluate current evidence for a causal relation between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia. A MEDLINE search for articles published in English between January 1983 and December 1992 with the use of MeSH terms Helicobacter pylori, gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer, dyspepsia and clinical trial; abstracts were excluded. Six journals and Current Contents were searched manually for pertinent articles published in that time frame. Original studies with at least 25 patients, case reports and reviews that examined the relation between H. pylori and the four gastrointestinal disorders; 350 articles were on gastritis, 122 on duodenal ulcer, 44 on gastric cancer and 96 on nonulcer dyspepsia. The quality of the studies was rated independently on a four-point scale. The strength of the evidence was assessed using a six-point scale for each of the eight established guidelines for determining a causal relation. There was conclusive evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori infection and histologic gastritis. Koch's postulates for the identification of a microorganism as the causative agent of a disease were fulfilled for H. pylori as a causative agent of gastritis. There was strong evidence that H. pylori is the main cause of duodenal ulcers not induced by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, but all of Koch's postulates were not fulfilled. There was moderate epidemiologic evidence of an association between chronic H. pylori infection and gastric cancer. There was a lack of convincing evidence of a causal association between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. The evidence supports a strong causal relation between H. pylori infection and gastritis and duodenal ulcer and a moderate relation between such infection and gastric cancer. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of H. pylori in these disorders. Thus far, there is no evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia.

Helicobacter pylori infection as a cause of gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia: a systematic overview.

PubMed Central

Veldhuyzen van Zanten, S J; Sherman, P M

1994-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate current evidence for a causal relation between Helicobacter pylori infection and gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer and nonulcer dyspepsia. DATA SOURCES: A MEDLINE search for articles published in English between January 1983 and December 1992 with the use of MeSH terms Helicobacter pylori, gastritis, duodenal ulcer, gastric cancer, dyspepsia and clinical trial; abstracts were excluded. Six journals and Current Contents were searched manually for pertinent articles published in that time frame. STUDY SELECTION: Original studies with at least 25 patients, case reports and reviews that examined the relation between H. pylori and the four gastrointestinal disorders; 350 articles were on gastritis, 122 on duodenal ulcer, 44 on gastric cancer and 96 on nonulcer dyspepsia. DATA EXTRACTION: The quality of the studies was rated independently on a four-point scale. The strength of the evidence was assessed using a six-point scale for each of the eight established guidelines for determining a causal relation. DATA SYNTHESIS: There was conclusive evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori infection and histologic gastritis. Koch's postulates for the identification of a microorganism as the causative agent of a disease were fulfilled for H. pylori as a causative agent of gastritis. There was strong evidence that H. pylori is the main cause of duodenal ulcers not induced by nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, but all of Koch's postulates were not fulfilled. There was moderate epidemiologic evidence of an association between chronic H. pylori infection and gastric cancer. There was a lack of convincing evidence of a causal association between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. CONCLUSIONS: The evidence supports a strong causal relation between H. pylori infection and gastritis and duodenal ulcer and a moderate relation between such infection and gastric cancer. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of H. pylori in these disorders. Thus far, there is no evidence of a causal relation between H. pylori and nonulcer dyspepsia. PMID:8287340

Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Wittenborn, A K; Rahmandad, H; Rick, J; Hosseinichimeh, N

2016-02-01

Depression is a complex public health problem with considerable variation in treatment response. The systemic complexity of depression, or the feedback processes among diverse drivers of the disorder, contribute to the persistence of depression. This paper extends prior attempts to understand the complex causal feedback mechanisms that underlie depression by presenting the first broad boundary causal loop diagram of depression dynamics. We applied qualitative system dynamics methods to map the broad feedback mechanisms of depression. We used a structured approach to identify candidate causal mechanisms of depression in the literature. We assessed the strength of empirical support for each mechanism and prioritized those with support from validation studies. Through an iterative process, we synthesized the empirical literature and created a conceptual model of major depressive disorder. The literature review and synthesis resulted in the development of the first causal loop diagram of reinforcing feedback processes of depression. It proposes candidate drivers of illness, or inertial factors, and their temporal functioning, as well as the interactions among drivers of depression. The final causal loop diagram defines 13 key reinforcing feedback loops that involve nine candidate drivers of depression. Future research is needed to expand upon this initial model of depression dynamics. Quantitative extensions may result in a better understanding of the systemic syndrome of depression and contribute to personalized methods of evaluation, prevention and intervention.

Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Wittenborn, A. K.; Rahmandad, H.; Rick, J.; Hosseinichimeh, N.

2016-01-01

Background Depression is a complex public health problem with considerable variation in treatment response. The systemic complexity of depression, or the feedback processes among diverse drivers of the disorder, contribute to the persistence of depression. This paper extends prior attempts to understand the complex causal feedback mechanisms that underlie depression by presenting the first broad boundary causal loop diagram of depression dynamics. Method We applied qualitative system dynamics methods to map the broad feedback mechanisms of depression. We used a structured approach to identify candidate causal mechanisms of depression in the literature. We assessed the strength of empirical support for each mechanism and prioritized those with support from validation studies. Through an iterative process, we synthesized the empirical literature and created a conceptual model of major depressive disorder. Results The literature review and synthesis resulted in the development of the first causal loop diagram of reinforcing feedback processes of depression. It proposes candidate drivers of illness, or inertial factors, and their temporal functioning, as well as the interactions among drivers of depression. The final causal loop diagram defines 13 key reinforcing feedback loops that involve nine candidate drivers of depression. Conclusions Future research is needed to expand upon this initial model of depression dynamics. Quantitative extensions may result in a better understanding of the systemic syndrome of depression and contribute to personalized methods of evaluation, prevention and intervention. PMID:26621339

The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram

PubMed Central

Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2015-01-01

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought. PMID:26506367

Estimating the causal effects of smoking.

PubMed

Rubin, D B

An important application of statistics in recent years has been to address the causal effects of smoking. There is little doubt that there are health risks associated with smoking. However, more general issues concern the causal effects due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry or due to programmes designed to curtail tobacco use. To address any such causal question, assumptions must be made. Although some of the issues are well known in the statistical and epidemiological literature, there does not appear to be a unified treatment that provides prescriptive guidance on the estimation of these causal effects with explication of the needed assumptions. A 'conduct attributable fraction' is derived, which allows for arbitrary changes in smoking and non-smoking health care expenditure related factors in a counterfactual world without the alleged misconduct, and therefore generalizes the traditional 'smoking attributable fraction'. The formulation presented here, although described for the problem of estimating excess health care expenditures due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry, is more general. It can be applied to any outcome, such as mortality, morbidity, or income from excise taxes, as well as to any situation in which consequences due to alleged misconduct (for example, of two entities, such as the tobacco and the asbestos industries) or due to hypothetical programmes (for example, extra smoking reduction initiatives) are to be estimated. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Selection and explosive growth alter genetic architecture and hamper the detection of causal rare variants.

PubMed

Uricchio, Lawrence H; Zaitlen, Noah A; Ye, Chun Jimmie; Witte, John S; Hernandez, Ryan D

2016-07-01

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature. © 2016 Uricchio et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Seismic link at plate boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramdani, Faical; Kettani, Omar; Tadili, Benaissa

2015-06-01

Seismic triggering at plate boundaries has a very complex nature that includes seismic events at varying distances. The spatial orientation of triggering cannot be reduced to sequences from the main shocks. Seismic waves propagate at all times in all directions, particularly in highly active zones. No direct evidence can be obtained regarding which earthquakes trigger the shocks. The first approach is to determine the potential linked zones where triggering may occur. The second step is to determine the causality between the events and their triggered shocks. The spatial orientation of the links between events is established from pre-ordered networks and the adapted dependence of the spatio-temporal occurrence of earthquakes. Based on a coefficient of synchronous seismic activity to grid couples, we derive a network link by each threshold. The links of high thresholds are tested using the coherence of time series to determine the causality and related orientation. The resulting link orientations at the plate boundary conditions indicate that causal triggering seems to be localized along a major fault, as a stress transfer between two major faults, and parallel to the geothermal area extension.

Assessing causal mechanistic interactions: a peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung

2013-01-01

The assessments of interactions in epidemiology have traditionally been based on risk-ratio, odds-ratio or rate-ratio multiplicativity. However, many epidemiologists fail to recognize that this is mainly for statistical conveniences and often will misinterpret a statistically significant interaction as a genuine mechanistic interaction. The author adopts an alternative metric system for risk, the 'peril'. A peril is an exponentiated cumulative rate, or simply, the inverse of a survival (risk complement) or one plus an odds. The author proposes a new index based on multiplicativity of peril ratios, the 'peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity' (PRISM). Under the assumption of no redundancy, PRISM can be used to assess synergisms in sufficient cause sense, i.e., causal co-actions or causal mechanistic interactions. It has a less stringent threshold to detect a synergy as compared to a previous index of 'relative excess risk due to interaction'. Using the new PRISM criterion, many situations in which there is not evidence of interaction judged by the traditional indices are in fact corresponding to bona fide positive or negative synergisms.

Assessing Causal Mechanistic Interactions: A Peril Ratio Index of Synergy Based on Multiplicativity

PubMed Central

Lee, Wen-Chung

2013-01-01

The assessments of interactions in epidemiology have traditionally been based on risk-ratio, odds-ratio or rate-ratio multiplicativity. However, many epidemiologists fail to recognize that this is mainly for statistical conveniences and often will misinterpret a statistically significant interaction as a genuine mechanistic interaction. The author adopts an alternative metric system for risk, the ‘peril’. A peril is an exponentiated cumulative rate, or simply, the inverse of a survival (risk complement) or one plus an odds. The author proposes a new index based on multiplicativity of peril ratios, the ‘peril ratio index of synergy based on multiplicativity’ (PRISM). Under the assumption of no redundancy, PRISM can be used to assess synergisms in sufficient cause sense, i.e., causal co-actions or causal mechanistic interactions. It has a less stringent threshold to detect a synergy as compared to a previous index of ‘relative excess risk due to interaction’. Using the new PRISM criterion, many situations in which there is not evidence of interaction judged by the traditional indices are in fact corresponding to bona fide positive or negative synergisms. PMID:23826299

Young Children's Use of Functional Information To Categorize Artifacts: Three Factors That Matter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Deborah G. Kemler; Frankenfield, Anne; Morris, Catherine; Blair, Elizabeth

2000-01-01

Three experiments examined factors influencing whether young children consider function, as opposed to appearance or shape, when extending names of novel artifacts. Findings indicated that 4-year-olds extend names based on demonstrated function more often when that function provides a plausible causal account of perceptible object structure, when…

Entrepreneurship Education: How Psychological, Demographic and Behavioural Factors Predict the Entrepreneurial Intention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marques, Carla S.; Ferreira, Joao J.; Gomes, Daniela N.; Rodrigues, Ricardo Gouveia

2012-01-01

Purpose: Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), the purpose of this paper is to approach entrepreneurial intention (EI) and the factors preceding the founding of EI among secondary students, both studying general academic and specific professional programs, and thereby establish causal relationships between psychological, demographic and…

Maternal Age at Childbirth and Offspring Disruptive Behaviors: Testing the Causal Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Goodnight, Jackson A.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Lahey, Benjamin B.

2009-01-01

Background: Recent studies suggest that the association between maternal age at childbearing (MAC) and children's disruptive behaviors is the result of family factors that are confounded with both variables, rather than a casual effect of environmental factors specifically related to MAC. These studies, however, relied on restricted samples and…

Gene flow in complex landscapes: Testing multiple hypotheses with causal modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jim Hayden; Michael K. Schwartz

2006-01-01

Predicting population-level effects of landscape change depends on identifying factors that influence population connectivity in complex landscapes. However, most putative movement corridors and barriers have not been based on empirical data. In this study, we identify factors that influence connectivity by comparing patterns of genetic similarity among 146 black bears...

Potential Reciprocal Relationship between Motivation and Achievement: A Longitudinal Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Yuan; Hou, Shumeng

2018-01-01

Among the non-cognitive factors that influence academic achievement, intrinsic motivation has been found to be a potential reciprocal factor. The present study aims to determine the causal relationship between other types of motivation and academic achievement. For this purpose, a large-scale data survey, the National Education Longitudinal Study…

When Rural Meets Urban: The Transfer Problem Chinese Pre-Service Teachers Face in Teaching Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ye, Wangbei

2016-01-01

Traditional teacher education's supposed failure to prepare prospective teachers for classroom realities (the transfer problem) is a widely discussed topic in the teacher education literature. Previous studies have focused on causal relationships between teaching and such factors as pre-service teacher education programmes, contextual factors in…

Mechanisms of age-related cognitive change and targets for intervention: social interactions and stress.

PubMed

Kremen, William S; Lachman, Margie E; Pruessner, Jens C; Sliwinski, Martin; Wilson, Robert S

2012-06-01

The effects of biological and physical factors on cognitive aging are widely studied. Less is known about the role of psychosocial factors such as stress and social relationships for cognitive functioning. Speakers in Session IV of the Summit focused on possible mechanisms linking social interactions and stressful experiences to cognitive changes with aging. Elevated cortisol, repetitive thinking, negative emotions, neuroticism, chronic stress, and early life adversity were negatively associated with memory and other cognitive dimensions in later life. In contrast, supportive social relationships were found to be positively related to cognitive functioning. Some evidence was provided for multidirectional, causal relationships involving stress and negative affect as both antecedents and consequences of cognitive decline. The findings contribute to understanding the potential underlying causal processes linking psychosocial factors and cognitive aging with a developmental focus on the etiology of declines and onset of cognitive impairments. This work provides an important foundation for future research to identify modifiable factors and to design interventions to minimize cognitive declines and optimize cognitive health in adulthood.

Genetic evidence for causal relationships between maternal obesity-related traits and birth weight

PubMed Central

Tyrrell, Jessica; Richmond, Rebecca C.; Palmer, Tom M.; Feenstra, Bjarke; Rangarajan, Janani; Metrustry, Sarah; Cavadino, Alana; Paternoster, Lavinia; Armstrong, Loren L.; De Silva, N. Maneka G.; Wood, Andrew R.; Horikoshi, Momoko; Geller, Frank; Myhre, Ronny; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Huikari, Ville; Painter, Jodie N.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Allard, Catherine; Berry, Diane J.; Bouchard, Luigi; Das, Shikta; Evans, David M.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hayes, M. Geoffrey; Heikkinen, Jani; Hofman, Albert; Knight, Bridget; Lind, Penelope A.; McCarthy, Mark I.; McMahon, George; Medland, Sarah E.; Melbye, Mads; Morris, Andrew P.; Nodzenski, Michael; Reichetzeder, Christoph; Ring, Susan M.; Sebert, Sylvain; Sengpiel, Verena; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.; Willemsen, Gonneke; de Geus, Eco J. C.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Spector, Tim D.; Power, Christine; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Bisgaard, Hans; Grant, Struan F.A.; Nohr, Ellen A.; Jaddoe, Vincent W.; Jacobsson, Bo; Murray, Jeffrey C.; Hocher, Berthold; Hattersley, Andrew T.; Scholtens, Denise M.; Smith, George Davey; Hivert, Marie-France; Felix, Janine F.; Hyppönen, Elina; Lowe, William L.; Frayling, Timothy M.; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Freathy, Rachel M.

2016-01-01

Structured abstract Importance Neonates born to overweight/obese women are larger and at higher risk of birth complications. Many maternal obesity-related traits are observationally associated with birth weight, but the causal nature of these associations is uncertain. Objective To test for genetic evidence of causal associations of maternal body mass index (BMI) and related traits with birth weight. Design, Setting and Participants We used Mendelian randomization to test whether maternal BMI and obesity-related traits are causally related to offspring birth weight. Mendelian randomization makes use of the fact that genotypes are randomly determined at conception and are thus not confounded by non-genetic factors. Data were analysed on 30,487 women from 18 studies. Participants were of European ancestry from population- or community-based studies located in Europe, North America or Australia and participating in the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium. Live, term, singleton offspring born between 1929 and 2013 were included. We tested associations between a genetic score of 30 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and (i) maternal BMI and (ii) birth weight, to estimate the causal relationship between BMI and birth weight. Analyses were repeated for other obesity-related traits. Exposures Genetic scores for BMI, fasting glucose level, type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglyceride level, HDL-cholesterol level, vitamin D status and adiponectin level. Main Outcome(s) and Measure(s) Offspring birth weight measured by trained study personnel (n=2 studies), from medical records (n= 10 studies) or from maternal report (n=6 studies). Results Among the 30,487 newborns the mean birth weight in the various cohorts ranged from 3325 g to 3679 g. The genetic score for BMI was associated with a 2g (95%CI: 0, 3g) higher offspring birth weight per maternal BMI-raising allele (P=0.008). The maternal genetic scores for fasting glucose and SBP were also associated with birth weight with effect sizes of 8g (95%CI: 6, 10g) per glucose-raising allele (P=7×10−14) and −4g (95%CI: −6, −2g) per SBP-raising allele (P=1×10−5), respectively. A 1 standard deviation (1 SD ≈ 4kg/m2) genetically higher maternal BMI was associated with a 55g (95% CI: 17, 93g) higher birth weight. A 1-SD genetically higher maternal fasting glucose (≈ 0.4mmol/L) or SBP (10mmHg) were associated with a 114g (95%CI: 80, 147g) higher or −208g (95% CI: −394, −21g) lower birth weight, respectively. For BMI and fasting glucose these genetic associations were consistent with the observational associations, but for SBP, the genetic and observational associations were in opposite directions. Conclusions and Relevance In this Mendelian randomization study of more than 30,000 women with singleton offspring from 18 studies, genetically elevated maternal BMI and blood glucose levels were potentially causally associated with higher offspring birth weight, whereas genetically elevated maternal systolic blood pressure was shown to be potentially causally related to lower birth weight. If replicated, these findings may have implications for counseling and managing pregnancies to avoid adverse weight-related birth outcomes. PMID:26978208

The Effect of the Total Quality Management on Organizational Innovation in Higher Education Mediated by Organizational Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aminbeidokhti, Aliakbar; Jamshidi, Laleh; Mohammadi Hoseini, Ahmad

2016-01-01

Many scientists have suggested that both total quality management (TQM) and organizational learning can separately and effectively reinforce innovation. But is there any relationship between TQM and organizational learning? This study has two main purposes: (1) determining the causal relationship between TQM, organizational learning and…

The Effect from Coaching Based Leadership

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moen, Frode; Federici, Roger Andre

2012-01-01

The main purpose of the present study was to implement an experiment to explore the effects from coaching based leadership on goal setting, self-efficacy, and causal attribution. The study comprised of 20 executives and 124 middle managers at a branch of a Norwegian Fortune 500 company who all voluntarily participated in an experiment over a…

Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

2011-01-01

Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

Chemical-gene interaction networks and causal reasoning for biological effects prediction and prioritization of contaminants for environmental monitoring and surveillance

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating the potential human health and ecological risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures in the environment is one of the main challenges of chemical safety assessment and environmental protection. There is a need for approaches that can help to integrat...

Unifying Different Theories of Learning: Theoretical Framework and Empirical Evidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy Phuong

2008-01-01

The main aim of this research study was to test out a conceptual model encompassing the theoretical frameworks of achievement goals, study processing strategies, effort, and reflective thinking practice. In particular, it was postulated that the causal influences of achievement goals on academic performance are direct and indirect through study…

Social Learning, Reinforcement and Crime: Evidence from Three European Cities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tittle, Charles R.; Antonaccio, Olena; Botchkovar, Ekaterina

2012-01-01

This study reports a cross-cultural test of Social Learning Theory using direct measures of social learning constructs and focusing on the causal structure implied by the theory. Overall, the results strongly confirm the main thrust of the theory. Prior criminal reinforcement and current crime-favorable definitions are highly related in all three…

Rice Sheath Rot: An Emerging Ubiquitous Destructive Disease Complex

PubMed Central

Bigirimana, Vincent de P.; Hua, Gia K. H.; Nyamangyoku, Obedi I.; Höfte, Monica

2015-01-01

Around one century ago, a rice disease characterized mainly by rotting of sheaths was reported in Taiwan. The causal agent was identified as Acrocylindrium oryzae, later known as Sarocladium oryzae. Since then it has become clear that various other organisms can cause similar disease symptoms, including Fusarium sp. and fluorescent pseudomonads. These organisms have in common that they produce a range of phytotoxins that induce necrosis in plants. The same agents also cause grain discoloration, chaffiness, and sterility and are all seed-transmitted. Rice sheath rot disease symptoms are found in all rice-growing areas of the world. The disease is now getting momentum and is considered as an important emerging rice production threat. The disease can lead to variable yield losses, which can be as high as 85%. This review aims at improving our understanding of the disease etiology of rice sheath rot and mainly deals with the three most reported rice sheath rot pathogens: S. oryzae, the Fusarium fujikuroi complex, and Pseudomonas fuscovaginae. Causal agents, pathogenicity determinants, interactions among the various pathogens, epidemiology, geographical distribution, and control options will be discussed. PMID:26697031

The Human Blood Metabolome-Transcriptome Interface

PubMed Central

Schramm, Katharina; Adamski, Jerzy; Gieger, Christian; Herder, Christian; Carstensen, Maren; Peters, Annette; Rathmann, Wolfgang; Roden, Michael; Strauch, Konstantin; Suhre, Karsten; Kastenmüller, Gabi; Prokisch, Holger; Theis, Fabian J.

2015-01-01

Biological systems consist of multiple organizational levels all densely interacting with each other to ensure function and flexibility of the system. Simultaneous analysis of cross-sectional multi-omics data from large population studies is a powerful tool to comprehensively characterize the underlying molecular mechanisms on a physiological scale. In this study, we systematically analyzed the relationship between fasting serum metabolomics and whole blood transcriptomics data from 712 individuals of the German KORA F4 cohort. Correlation-based analysis identified 1,109 significant associations between 522 transcripts and 114 metabolites summarized in an integrated network, the ‘human blood metabolome-transcriptome interface’ (BMTI). Bidirectional causality analysis using Mendelian randomization did not yield any statistically significant causal associations between transcripts and metabolites. A knowledge-based interpretation and integration with a genome-scale human metabolic reconstruction revealed systematic signatures of signaling, transport and metabolic processes, i.e. metabolic reactions mainly belonging to lipid, energy and amino acid metabolism. Moreover, the construction of a network based on functional categories illustrated the cross-talk between the biological layers at a pathway level. Using a transcription factor binding site enrichment analysis, this pathway cross-talk was further confirmed at a regulatory level. Finally, we demonstrated how the constructed networks can be used to gain novel insights into molecular mechanisms associated to intermediate clinical traits. Overall, our results demonstrate the utility of a multi-omics integrative approach to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying both normal physiology and disease. PMID:26086077

Presenting the Students’ Academic Achievement Causal Model based on Goal Orientation

PubMed Central

NASIRI, EBRAHIM; POUR-SAFAR, ALI; TAHERI, MAHDOKHT; SEDIGHI PASHAKY, ABDULLAH; ASADI LOUYEH, ATAOLLAH

2017-01-01

Introduction: Several factors play a role in academic achievement, individual's excellence and capability to do actions and tasks that the learner is in charge of in learning areas. The main goal of this study was to present academic achievement causal model based on the dimensions of goal orientation and learning approaches among the students of Medical Science and Dentistry courses in Guilan University of Medical Sciences in 2013. Methods: This study is based on a cross-sectional model. The participants included 175 first and second students of the Medical and Dentistry schools in Guilan University of Medical Sciences selected by random cluster sampling [121 persons (69%) Medical Basic Science students and 54 (30.9%) Dentistry students]. The measurement tool included the Goal Orientation Scale of Bouffard and Study Process Questionnaire of Biggs) and the students’ Grade Point Average. The study data were analyzed using Pearson correlation coefficient and structural equations modeling. SPSS 14 and Amos were used to analyze the data. Results: The results indicated a significant relationship between goal orientation and learning strategies (P<0.05). In addition, the results revealed that a significant relationship exists between learning strategies[Deep Learning (r=0.37, P<0.05), Surface Learning (r=-0.21,P<0.05)], and academic achievement.The suggested model of research is fitted to the data of the research. Conclusion: Results showed that the students' academic achievement model fits with experimental data, so it can be used in learning principles which lead to students’ achievement in learning. PMID:28979914

When a checklist is not enough: How to improve them and what else is needed.

PubMed

Raman, Jaishankar; Leveson, Nancy; Samost, Aubrey Lynn; Dobrilovic, Nikola; Oldham, Maggie; Dekker, Sidney; Finkelstein, Stan

2016-08-01

Checklists are being introduced to enhance patient safety, but the results have been mixed. The goal of this research is to understand why time-outs and checklists are sometimes not effective in preventing surgical adverse events and to identify additional measures needed to reduce these events. A total of 380 consecutive patients underwent complex cardiac surgery over a 24-month period between November 2011 and November 2013 at an academic medical center, out of a total of 529 cardiac cases. Elective isolated aortic valve replacements, mitral valve repairs, and coronary artery bypass graft surgical procedures (N = 149) were excluded. A time-out was conducted in a standard fashion in all patients in accordance with the World Health Organization surgical checklist protocol. Adverse events were classified as anything that resulted in an operative delay, nonavailability of equipment, failure of drug administration, or unexpected adverse clinical outcome. These events and their details were collected every week and analyzed using a systemic causal analysis technique using a technique called CAST (causal analysis based on systems theory). This analytic technique evaluated the sociotechnical system to identify the set of causal factors involved in the adverse events and the causal factors explored to identify reasons. Recommendations were made for the improvement of checklists and the use of system design changes that could prevent such events in the future. Thirty events were identified. The causal analysis of these 30 adverse events was carried out and actionable events classified. There were important limitations in the use of standard checklists as a stand-alone patient safety measure in the operating room setting, because of multiple factors. Major categories included miscommunication between staff, medication errors, missing instrumentation, missing implants, and improper handling of equipment or instruments. An average of 3.9 recommendations were generated for each adverse event scenario. Time-outs and checklists can prevent some types of adverse events, but they need to be carefully designed. Additional interventions aimed at improving safety controls in the system design are needed to augment the use of checklists. Customization of checklists for specialized surgical procedures may reduce adverse events. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strengthening Causal Estimates for Links Between Spanking and Children's Externalizing Behavior Problems.

PubMed

Gershoff, Elizabeth T; Sattler, Kierra M P; Ansari, Arya

2018-01-01

Establishing causal links when experiments are not feasible is an important challenge for psychology researchers. The question of whether parents' spanking causes children's externalizing behavior problems poses such a challenge because randomized experiments of spanking are unethical, and correlational studies cannot rule out potential selection factors. This study used propensity score matching based on the lifetime prevalence and recent incidence of spanking in a large and nationally representative sample ( N = 12,112) as well as lagged dependent variables to get as close to causal estimates outside an experiment as possible. Whether children were spanked at the age of 5 years predicted increases in externalizing behavior problems by ages 6 and 8, even after the groups based on spanking prevalence or incidence were matched on a range of sociodemographic, family, and cultural characteristics and children's initial behavior problems. These statistically rigorous methods yield the conclusion that spanking predicts a deterioration of children's externalizing behavior over time.

A Unifying Theory of Biological Function.

PubMed

van Hateren, J H

2017-01-01

A new theory that naturalizes biological function is explained and compared with earlier etiological and causal role theories. Etiological (or selected effects) theories explain functions from how they are caused over their evolutionary history. Causal role theories analyze how functional mechanisms serve the current capacities of their containing system. The new proposal unifies the key notions of both kinds of theories, but goes beyond them by explaining how functions in an organism can exist as factors with autonomous causal efficacy. The goal-directedness and normativity of functions exist in this strict sense as well. The theory depends on an internal physiological or neural process that mimics an organism's fitness, and modulates the organism's variability accordingly. The structure of the internal process can be subdivided into subprocesses that monitor specific functions in an organism. The theory matches well with each intuition on a previously published list of intuited ideas about biological functions, including intuitions that have posed difficulties for other theories.

The influence of cognitive ability and instructional set on causal conditional inference.

PubMed

Evans, Jonathan St B T; Handley, Simon J; Neilens, Helen; Over, David

2010-05-01

We report a large study in which participants are invited to draw inferences from causal conditional sentences with varying degrees of believability. General intelligence was measured, and participants were split into groups of high and low ability. Under strict deductive-reasoning instructions, it was observed that higher ability participants were significantly less influenced by prior belief than were those of lower ability. This effect disappeared, however, when pragmatic reasoning instructions were employed in a separate group. These findings are in accord with dual-process theories of reasoning. We also took detailed measures of beliefs in the conditional sentences used for the reasoning tasks. Statistical modelling showed that it is not belief in the conditional statement per se that is the causal factor, but rather correlates of it. Two different models of belief-based reasoning were found to fit the data according to the kind of instructions and the type of inference under consideration.

Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology

PubMed Central

Qi, Lu

2013-01-01

Nutritional epidemiology aims to identify dietary and lifestyle causes for human diseases. Causality inference in nutritional epidemiology is largely based on evidence from studies of observational design, and may be distorted by unmeasured or residual confounding and reverse causation. Mendelian randomization is a recently developed methodology that combines genetic and classical epidemiological analysis to infer causality for environmental exposures, based on the principle of Mendel’s law of independent assortment. Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants as proxiesforenvironmentalexposuresofinterest.AssociationsderivedfromMendelian randomization analysis are less likely to be affected by confounding and reverse causation. During the past 5 years, a body of studies examined the causal effects of diet/lifestyle factors and biomarkers on a variety of diseases. The Mendelian randomization approach also holds considerable promise in the study of intrauterine influences on offspring health outcomes. However, the application of Mendelian randomization in nutritional epidemiology has some limitations. PMID:19674341

Comparative assessment of crash causal factors and IVHS countermeasures

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1994-01-01

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administrations Office of Crash Avoidance Research, in : conjunction with the Research and Special Programs Administrations Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has underway a multi-disciplinary pr...

Job Dissatisfaction and Coronary Heart Disease

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Friis, Robert

1976-01-01

Based on the psychosocial factor that life dissatisfactions may be associated with physical illnesses, this research examines the relationship between job dissatisfaction and its causal link to premature death from heart disease. (Author/RK)

A Children of Twins Study of parental divorce and offspring psychopathology

PubMed Central

D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E.; Maes, Hermine H.; Silberg, Judy; Eaves, Lindon J.

2010-01-01

Background Although parental divorce is associated with increased substance use and internalizing problems, experiencing the separation of one's parents may not cause these outcomes. The relations may be due to genetic or environmental selection factors, characteristics that lead to both marital separation and offspring functioning. Method We used the Children of Twins (CoT) Design to explore whether unmeasured genetic or environmental factors related to the twin parent, and measured characteristics of both parents, account for the association between parental divorce and offspring substance use and internalizing problems. Results The association between parental divorce and offspring substance use problems remained robust when controlling for genetic and environmental risk from the twin parent associated with parental divorce, and measured characteristics of both parents. The results do not prove, but are consistent with, a causal connection. In contrast, the analyses suggest that shared genetic liability in parents and their offspring accounts for the increased risk of internalizing problems in adult offspring from divorced families. Conclusions The study illustrates that unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying parental divorce. In explaining associations between parental divorce and young-adult adjustment, our evidence suggests that selection versus causal mechanisms may operate differently for substance abuse (a causal relation) and internalizing problems (an artifact of selection). The CoT design only controls for the genetic and environmental characteristics of one parent; thus, additional genetically informed analyses are needed. PMID:17593147

Causal Relationship between Microbial Ecology Dynamics and Proteolysis during Manufacture and Ripening of Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) Cheese Canestrato Pugliese

PubMed Central

De Pasquale, Ilaria; Calasso, Maria; Mancini, Leonardo; Ercolini, Danilo; La Storia, Antonietta; De Angelis, Maria; Gobbetti, Marco

2014-01-01

Pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, community-level physiological profiles determined by the use of Biolog EcoPlates, and proteolysis analyses were used to characterize Canestrato Pugliese Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) cheese. The number of presumptive mesophilic lactococci in raw ewes' milk was higher than that of presumptive mesophilic lactobacilli. The numbers of these microbial groups increased during ripening, showing temporal and numerical differences. Urea-PAGE showed limited primary proteolysis, whereas the analysis of the pH 4.6-soluble fraction of the cheese revealed that secondary proteolysis increased mainly from 45 to 75 days of ripening. This agreed with the concentration of free amino acids. Raw ewes' milk was contaminated by several bacterial phyla: Proteobacteria (68%; mainly Pseudomonas), Firmicutes (30%; mainly Carnobacterium and Lactococcus), Bacteroidetes (0.05%), and Actinobacteria (0.02%). Almost the same microbial composition persisted in the curd after molding. From day 1 of ripening onwards, the phylum Firmicutes dominated. Lactococcus dominated throughout ripening, and most of the Lactobacillus species appeared only at 7 or 15 days. At 90 days, Lactococcus (87.2%), Lactobacillus (4.8%; mainly Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus sakei), and Leuconostoc (3.9%) dominated. The relative utilization of carbon sources by the bacterial community reflected the succession. This study identified strategic phases that characterized the manufacture and ripening of Canestrato Pugliese cheese and established a causal relationship between mesophilic lactobacilli and proteolysis. PMID:24771032

Causal relationship between microbial ecology dynamics and proteolysis during manufacture and ripening of protected designation of origin (PDO) cheese Canestrato Pugliese.

PubMed

De Pasquale, Ilaria; Calasso, Maria; Mancini, Leonardo; Ercolini, Danilo; La Storia, Antonietta; De Angelis, Maria; Di Cagno, Raffaella; Gobbetti, Marco

2014-07-01

Pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, community-level physiological profiles determined by the use of Biolog EcoPlates, and proteolysis analyses were used to characterize Canestrato Pugliese Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) cheese. The number of presumptive mesophilic lactococci in raw ewes' milk was higher than that of presumptive mesophilic lactobacilli. The numbers of these microbial groups increased during ripening, showing temporal and numerical differences. Urea-PAGE showed limited primary proteolysis, whereas the analysis of the pH 4.6-soluble fraction of the cheese revealed that secondary proteolysis increased mainly from 45 to 75 days of ripening. This agreed with the concentration of free amino acids. Raw ewes' milk was contaminated by several bacterial phyla: Proteobacteria (68%; mainly Pseudomonas), Firmicutes (30%; mainly Carnobacterium and Lactococcus), Bacteroidetes (0.05%), and Actinobacteria (0.02%). Almost the same microbial composition persisted in the curd after molding. From day 1 of ripening onwards, the phylum Firmicutes dominated. Lactococcus dominated throughout ripening, and most of the Lactobacillus species appeared only at 7 or 15 days. At 90 days, Lactococcus (87.2%), Lactobacillus (4.8%; mainly Lactobacillus plantarum and Lactobacillus sakei), and Leuconostoc (3.9%) dominated. The relative utilization of carbon sources by the bacterial community reflected the succession. This study identified strategic phases that characterized the manufacture and ripening of Canestrato Pugliese cheese and established a causal relationship between mesophilic lactobacilli and proteolysis. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

A biologically inspired neural model for visual and proprioceptive integration including sensory training.

PubMed

Saidi, Maryam; Towhidkhah, Farzad; Gharibzadeh, Shahriar; Lari, Abdolaziz Azizi

2013-12-01

Humans perceive the surrounding world by integration of information through different sensory modalities. Earlier models of multisensory integration rely mainly on traditional Bayesian and causal Bayesian inferences for single causal (source) and two causal (for two senses such as visual and auditory systems), respectively. In this paper a new recurrent neural model is presented for integration of visual and proprioceptive information. This model is based on population coding which is able to mimic multisensory integration of neural centers in the human brain. The simulation results agree with those achieved by casual Bayesian inference. The model can also simulate the sensory training process of visual and proprioceptive information in human. Training process in multisensory integration is a point with less attention in the literature before. The effect of proprioceptive training on multisensory perception was investigated through a set of experiments in our previous study. The current study, evaluates the effect of both modalities, i.e., visual and proprioceptive training and compares them with each other through a set of new experiments. In these experiments, the subject was asked to move his/her hand in a circle and estimate its position. The experiments were performed on eight subjects with proprioception training and eight subjects with visual training. Results of the experiments show three important points: (1) visual learning rate is significantly more than that of proprioception; (2) means of visual and proprioceptive errors are decreased by training but statistical analysis shows that this decrement is significant for proprioceptive error and non-significant for visual error, and (3) visual errors in training phase even in the beginning of it, is much less than errors of the main test stage because in the main test, the subject has to focus on two senses. The results of the experiments in this paper is in agreement with the results of the neural model simulation.

Factors influencing registered nurses perception of their overall job satisfaction: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Atefi, N; Abdullah, K L; Wong, L P; Mazlom, R

2014-09-01

The purpose of this qualitative descriptive study was to explore factors related to critical care and medical-surgical nurses' job satisfaction as well as dissatisfaction in Iran. Job satisfaction is an important factor in healthcare settings. Strong empirical evidence supports a causal relationship between job satisfaction, patient safety and quality of care. A convenient sample of 85 nurses from surgical, medical and critical care wards of a large hospital was recruited. Ten focus group discussions using a semi-structured interview guide were conducted. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using a thematic approach. The study identified three main themes that influenced nurses' job satisfaction and dissatisfaction: (1) spiritual feeling, (2) work environment factors, and (3) motivation. Helping and involvement in patient care contributed to the spiritual feeling reported to influence nurses' job satisfaction. For work environment factors, team cohesion, benefit and rewards, working conditions, lack of medical resources, unclear nurses' responsibilities, patient and doctor perceptions, poor leadership skills and discrimination at work played an important role in nurses' job dissatisfaction. For motivation factors, task requirement, professional development and lack of clinical autonomy contributed to nurses' job satisfaction. Nurse managers should ensure a flexible practice environment with adequate staffing and resources with opportunities for nurses to participate in hospital's policies and governance. Policy makers should consider nurses' professional development needs, and implement initiatives to improve nurses' rewards and other benefits as they influence job satisfaction. © 2014 International Council of Nurses.

Hopelessness as a basis for tuberculosis diagnostic delay in the Arkhangelsk region: a grounded theory study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Data about delayed tuberculosis diagnosis in Northern Russia are scarce yet such knowledge could enhance the care of tuberculosis. The Arkhangelsk region is situated in the north of Russia, where the population is more than one million residents. The aim of the study was to understand factors influencing diagnostic delay among patients with tuberculosis in the Arkhangelsk region and to develop a theoretical model in order to explain diagnostic delay from the patients’ perspectives. Methods Twenty-three patients who had experienced diagnostic delay of tuberculosis were interviewed in Arkhangelsk. Using a qualitative approach, we conducted focus-group discussions for data gathering using Grounded Theory with the Paradigm Model to analyse the phenomenon of diagnostic delay. Results The study resulted in a theoretical model of the pathway of delay of tuberculosis diagnosis in the Arkhangelsk region in answer to the question: “Why and how do patients in the Arkhangelsk region delay tuberculosis diagnosis?” The model included categories of causal conditions, context and intervening conditions, action/interaction strategies, and consequences. The causal condition and main concern of the patients was that they were overpowered by hopelessness. Patients blamed policy, the administrative system, and doctors for their unfortunate life circumstances. This was accompanied by avoidance of health care, denial of their own health situations, and self-treatment. Only a deadly threat was a sufficient motivator for some patients to seek medical help. “Being overpowered by hopelessness” was identified as the core category that affected their self-esteem and influenced their entire lives, including family, work and social relations, and appeared even stronger in association with alcohol use. This category reflected the passive position of many patients in this situation, including their feelings of inability to change anything in their lives, to obtain employment, or to qualify for disability benefits. Conclusion The main contributing factor to unsuccessful health-seeking behaviour for patients with tuberculosis was identified as “being overpowered by hopelessness.” This should be taken into consideration when creating any preventive programs and diagnostic algorithms aimed at increasing knowledge about TB, improving the health system, decreasing alcohol consumption and reducing the poverty of the people in Arkhangelsk. PMID:23915339

Causal relationships among academic delay of gratification, motivation, and self-regulated learning in elementary school children.

PubMed

Zhang, Lili; Maruno, Shun'ichi

2010-10-01

Academic delay of gratification refers to the postponement of immediate rewards by students and the pursuit of more important, temporally remote academic goals. A path model was designed to identify the causal relationships among academic delay of gratification and motivation, self-regulated learning strategies (as specified in the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire), and grades among 386 Chinese elementary school children. Academic delay of gratification was found to be positively related to motivation and metacognition. Cognitive strategy, resource management, and grades mediated these two factors and were indirectly related to academic delay of gratification.

The uses of hopelessness.

PubMed

Bennett, M I; Bennett, M B

1984-04-01

If most emotional problems, like most medical problems, are caused by bad luck as well as by factors over which man has control, then those who suffer from such problems must accept a burden of helplessness. When patients and their families overuse theories of causality to avoid accepting their helplessness and to create an illusory sense of human control, unjust assignment of responsibility and excessive expectations for change may erode self-esteem and make change more difficult. The authors present examples of interventions that challenge the overuse of theories of causality. Although these interventions aroused hopelessness, they also fostered realistic hope and change.

[Urinary tract infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae and its relationship with vesicoureteral reflux].

PubMed

Díaz Álvarez, Manuel; Acosta Batista, Bárbara; Pérez Córdova, Rodolfo; Hernández Robledo, Ernesto

The first urinary tract infection can be a marker of a urinary tract anomaly, mainly vesicoureteral reflux. The aim of this work was to determine the association between isolated enterobacteria with the presence and grade of vesicoureteral reflux in neonatal patients with their first urinary tract infection. A retrospective, observational and analytic study of newborns, who were admitted to the Neonatal Department, University Pediatric Hospital "Juan Manuel Márquez," in Havana, Cuba, from 1992 to 2013 was conducted. The causal microorganism of urinary tract infection was from the Enterobacteriaceae family. They were evaluated by radio imaging. The association between the presence and grade of vesicoureteral reflux with the causal microorganism of the urinary tract infection was analyzed. Newborn infants with urinary tract infection (450) were studied. Bacterial isolations in the urine cultures corresponded to E. coli in 316 cases (70.2%). The prevalence of vesicoureteral reflux was 18.2%. The presence of bacteria corresponding to the Enterobacteriaceae family (other than E. coli) had significant risk association with vesicoureteral reflux (OR: 2.02; p < 0.01) and vesicoureteral reflux classification (for higher grades, p < 0.01). E. coli is the most frequent causal microorganism in neonatal urinary tract infection. However, an association between the isolation of a microorganism of the Enterobacteriaceae family different to E. coli with the presence of vesicoureteral reflux and mainly with higher grades of vesicoureteral reflux exists. Copyright © 2017 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

A review of cognitive biases in youth depression: attention, interpretation and memory.

PubMed

Platt, Belinda; Waters, Allison M; Schulte-Koerne, Gerd; Engelmann, Lina; Salemink, Elske

2017-04-01

Depression is one of the most common mental health problems in childhood and adolescence. Although data consistently show it is associated with self-reported negative cognitive styles, less is known about the mechanisms underlying this relationship. Cognitive biases in attention, interpretation and memory represent plausible mechanisms and are known to characterise adult depression. We provide the first structured review of studies investigating the nature and causal role of cognitive biases in youth depression. Key questions are (i) do cognitive biases characterise youth depression? (ii) are cognitive biases a vulnerability factor for youth depression? and (iii) do cognitive biases play a causal role in youth depression? We find consistent evidence for positive associations between attention and interpretation biases and youth depression. Stronger biases in youth with an elevated risk of depression support cognitive-vulnerability models. Preliminary evidence from cognitive bias modification paradigms supports a causal role of attention and interpretation biases in youth depression but these paradigms require testing in clinical samples before they can be considered treatment tools. Studies of memory biases in youth samples have produced mixed findings and none have investigated the causal role of memory bias. We identify numerous areas for future research in this emerging field.

Smoking and multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis using the Bradford Hill criteria for causation.

PubMed

Degelman, Michelle L; Herman, Katya M

2017-10-01

Despite being one of the most common neurological disorders globally, the cause(s) of multiple sclerosis (MS) remain unknown. Cigarette smoking has been studied with regards to both the development and progression of MS. The Bradford Hill criteria for causation can contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of a potentially causal risk factor-disease outcome relationship. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to assess the relationship between smoking and both MS risk and MS progression, subsequently applying Hill's criteria to further evaluate the likelihood of causal associations. The Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycInfo, and Cochrane Library databases were searched for relevant studies up until July 28, 2015. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted for three outcomes: MS risk, conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS), and progression from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). Dose-response relationships and risk factor interactions, and discussions of mechanisms and analogous associations were noted. Hill's criteria were applied to assess causality of the relationships between smoking and each outcome. The effect of second-hand smoke exposure was also briefly reviewed. Smoking had a statistically significant association with both MS risk (conservative: OR/RR 1.54, 95% CI [1.46-1.63]) and SPMS risk (HR 1.80, 95% CI [1.04-3.10]), but the association with progression from CIS to CDMS was non-significant (HR 1.13, 95% CI [0.73-1.76]). Using Hill's criteria, there was strong evidence of a causal role of smoking in MS risk, but only moderate evidence of a causal association between smoking and MS progression. Heterogeneity in study designs and target populations, inconsistent results, and an overall scarcity of studies point to the need for more research on second-hand smoke exposure in relation to MS prior to conducting a detailed meta-analysis. This first review to supplement systematic review and meta-analytic methods with Hill's criteria to analyze the smoking-MS association provides evidence supporting the causal involvement of smoking in the development and progression of MS. Smoking prevention and cessation programs and policies should consider MS as an additional health risk when aiming to reduce smoking prevalence in the population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Individuals with currently untreated mental illness: causal beliefs and readiness to seek help.

PubMed

Stolzenburg, S; Freitag, S; Evans-Lacko, S; Speerforck, S; Schmidt, S; Schomerus, G

2018-01-16

Many people with mental illness do not seek professional help. Beliefs about the causes of their current health problem seem relevant for initiating treatment. Our aim was to find out to what extent the perceived causes of current untreated mental health problems determine whether a person considers herself/himself as having a mental illness, perceives need for professional help and plans to seek help in the near future. In a cross-sectional study, we examined 207 untreated persons with a depressive syndrome, all fulfilling criteria for a current mental illness as confirmed with a structured diagnostic interview (Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview). The sample was recruited in the community using adverts, flyers and social media. We elicited causal explanations for the present problem, depression literacy, self-identification as having a mental illness, perceived need for professional help, help-seeking intentions, severity of depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire - Depression), and whether respondents had previously sought mental healthcare. Most participants fulfilled diagnostic criteria for a mood disorder (n = 181, 87.4%) and/or neurotic, stress-related and somatoform disorders (n = 120, 58.0%) according to the ICD-10. N = 94 (45.4%) participants had never received mental health treatment previously. Exploratory factor analysis of a list of 25 different causal explanations resulted in five factors: biomedical causes, person-related causes, childhood trauma, current stress and unhealthy behaviour. Attributing the present problem to biomedical causes, person-related causes, childhood trauma and stress were all associated with stronger self-identification as having a mental illness. In persons who had never received mental health treatment previously, attribution to biomedical causes was related to greater perceived need and stronger help-seeking intentions. In those with treatment experience, lower attribution to person-related causes and stress were related to greater perceived need for professional help. While several causal explanations are associated with self-identification as having a mental illness, only biomedical attributions seem to be related to increase perceived need and help-seeking intentions, especially in individuals with no treatment experiences. Longitudinal studies investigating causal beliefs and help-seeking are needed to find out how causal attributions guide help-seeking behaviour. From this study it seems possible that portraying professional mental health treatment as not being restricted to biomedical problems would contribute to closing the treatment gap for mental disorders.

Creating the environment for driver distraction: A thematic framework of sociotechnical factors.

PubMed

Parnell, Katie J; Stanton, Neville A; Plant, Katherine L

2018-04-01

As modern society becomes more reliant on technology, its use within the vehicle is becoming a concern for road safety due to both portable and built-in devices offering sources of distraction. While the effects of distracting technologies are well documented, little is known about the causal factors that lead to the drivers' engagement with technological devices. The relevance of the sociotechnical system within which the behaviour occurs requires further research. This paper presents two experiments, the first aims to assess the drivers self-reported decision to engage with technological tasks while driving and their reasoning for doing so with respect to the wider sociotechnical system. This utilised a semi-structured interview method, conducted with 30 drivers to initiate a discussion on their likelihood of engaging with 22 different tasks across 7 different road types. Inductive thematic analysis provided a hierarchical thematic framework that detailed the self-reported causal factors that influence the drivers' use of technology whilst driving. The second experiment assessed the relevance of the hierarchical framework to a model of distraction that was established from within the literature on the drivers use of distracting technologies while driving. The findings provide validation for some relationships studied in the literature, as well as providing insights into relationships that require further study. The role of the sociotechnical system in the engagement of distractions while driving is highlighted, with the causal factors reported by drivers suggesting the importance of considering the wider system within which the behaviour is occurring and how it may be creating the conditions for distraction to occur. This supports previous claims made within the literature based model. Recommendations are proposed that encourage a movement away from individual focused countermeasures towards systemic actors. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Causal Analysis of Observed Declines in Managed Honey Bees (Apis mellifera)

PubMed Central

Staveley, Jane P.; Law, Sheryl A.; Fairbrother, Anne; Menzie, Charles A.

2013-01-01

The European honey bee (Apis mellifera) is a highly valuable, semi-free-ranging managed agricultural species. While the number of managed hives has been increasing, declines in overwinter survival, and the onset of colony collapse disorder in 2006, precipitated a large amount of research on bees' health in an effort to isolate the causative factors. A workshop was convened during which bee experts were introduced to a formal causal analysis approach to compare 39 candidate causes against specified criteria to evaluate their relationship to the reduced overwinter survivability observed since 2006 of commercial bees used in the California almond industry. Candidate causes were categorized as probable, possible, or unlikely; several candidate causes were categorized as indeterminate due to lack of information. Due to time limitations, a full causal analysis was not completed at the workshop. In this article, examples are provided to illustrate the process and provide preliminary findings, using three candidate causes. Varroa mites plus viruses were judged to be a “probable cause” of the reduced survival, while nutrient deficiency was judged to be a “possible cause.” Neonicotinoid pesticides were judged to be “unlikely” as the sole cause of this reduced survival, although they could possibly be a contributing factor. PMID:24363549

Estimating causal contrasts involving intermediate variables in the presence of selection bias.

PubMed

Valeri, Linda; Coull, Brent A

2016-11-20

An important goal across the biomedical and social sciences is the quantification of the role of intermediate factors in explaining how an exposure exerts an effect on an outcome. Selection bias has the potential to severely undermine the validity of inferences on direct and indirect causal effects in observational as well as in randomized studies. The phenomenon of selection may arise through several mechanisms, and we here focus on instances of missing data. We study the sign and magnitude of selection bias in the estimates of direct and indirect effects when data on any of the factors involved in the analysis is either missing at random or not missing at random. Under some simplifying assumptions, the bias formulae can lead to nonparametric sensitivity analyses. These sensitivity analyses can be applied to causal effects on the risk difference and risk-ratio scales irrespectively of the estimation approach employed. To incorporate parametric assumptions, we also develop a sensitivity analysis for selection bias in mediation analysis in the spirit of the expectation-maximization algorithm. The approaches are applied to data from a health disparities study investigating the role of stage at diagnosis on racial disparities in colorectal cancer survival. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Common species link global ecosystems to climate change: dynamical evidence in the planktonic fossil record.

PubMed

Hannisdal, Bjarte; Haaga, Kristian Agasøster; Reitan, Trond; Diego, David; Liow, Lee Hsiang

2017-07-12

Common species shape the world around us, and changes in their commonness signify large-scale shifts in ecosystem structure and function. However, our understanding of long-term ecosystem response to environmental forcing in the deep past is centred on species richness, neglecting the disproportional impact of common species. Here, we use common and widespread species of planktonic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments to track changes in observed global occupancy (proportion of sampled sites at which a species is present and observed) through the turbulent climatic history of the last 65 Myr. Our approach is sensitive to relative changes in global abundance of the species set and robust to factors that bias richness estimators. Using three independent methods for detecting causality, we show that the observed global occupancy of planktonic foraminifera has been dynamically coupled to past oceanographic changes captured in deep-ocean temperature reconstructions. The causal inference does not imply a direct mechanism, but is consistent with an indirect, time-delayed causal linkage. Given the strong quantitative evidence that a dynamical coupling exists, we hypothesize that mixotrophy (symbiont hosting) may be an ecological factor linking the global abundance of planktonic foraminifera to long-term climate changes via the relative extent of oligotrophic oceans. © 2017 The Authors.

Cost effective safety improvements for two-lane rural roads

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-02-01

Traffic accidents cause loss of life and property. Proper identification of accident causal factors is essential for composing countermeasures against traffic accidents and reducing related costs. However, two-lane rural roads have distinctive roadwa...

Railroad Classification Yard Technology Manual. Volume III. Freight Car Rollability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-07-01

The report presents a survey of rolling resistance research, histograms of rolling resistance from five yards, a statistical regression analysis of causal factors affecting rolling resistance, procedures for constructing a rolling resistance histogra...

A protective passenger smoke hood.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1967-04-01

Several recent jet transport accidents have focused the attention of the aviation industry upon smoke and toxic gases as causal factors of passenger incapacitation and failure to evacuate aircraft before fire and heat render the environment uninhabit...

The relationship between the belief in a genetic cause for breast cancer and bilateral mastectomy.

PubMed

Petrie, Keith J; Myrtveit, Solbjørg Makalani; Partridge, Ann H; Stephens, Melika; Stanton, Annette L

2015-05-01

Most women develop causal beliefs following diagnosis with breast cancer and these beliefs can guide decisions around their care and management. Bilateral mastectomy rates are increasing, although the benefits of this surgery are only established in a small percentage of women. In this study we investigated the relationship between causal beliefs and the decision to have a bilateral mastectomy. Women (N = 2,269) from the Army of Women's breast cancer research registry completed an online survey. Women were asked what they believed caused their cancer and responses were coded into 8 causal categories. Participants were also asked about the type of surgery they underwent following their breast cancer diagnosis. The odds ratios for having a double mastectomy were calculated for each causal category using random/bad luck as a referent category. Hormonal factors (22%) and genetics (19%) were the most common causal belief, followed by don't know (19%), environmental toxins (11%), negative emotions (9%), poor health behavior (8%), other (6%) and random/bad luck (6%). Compared with the referent category, the odds ratio of having a bilateral mastectomy was significantly higher in both the genetics and hormonal causal belief groups (OR = 2.36, 95% CI [1.38, 4.02] and OR = 1.98, 95% CI [1.16, 3.38], respectively). Beliefs in a genetic cause for breast cancer are common and are associated with high rates of bilateral mastectomy. This is despite evidence that the actual genetic contribution to breast cancer is much lower than perceived and that bilateral mastectomy is, in most cases, unlikely to improve survival. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Academic Risk Factors and Deficits of Learned Hopelessness: A Longitudinal Study of Hong Kong Secondary School Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Au, Raymond C. P.; Watkins, David A.; Hattie, John A. C.

2010-01-01

The aim of the present study is to explore a causal model of academic achievement and learning-related personal variables by testing the nature of relationships between learned hopelessness, its risk factors and hopelessness deficits as proposed in major theories in this area. The model investigates affective-motivational characteristics of…

Cognitive Factors That Influence Children's Learning from a Multimedia Science Lesson

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anggoro, Florencia K.; Stein, Nancy L.; Jee, Benjamin D.

2012-01-01

The present study examined the cognitive factors that influence children's physical science learning from a multimedia instruction. Using a causally coherent text and visual models, we taught 4th- and 7th-grade children about the observable and molecular properties of the three states of water. We manipulated whether the text was read by a tutor…

Is there a relationship between elderly suicide rates and educational attainment? A cross-national study.

PubMed

Shah, Ajit; Chatterjee, Santanu

2008-11-01

Suicides are associated with both high and low levels of intelligence and educational attainment in both individual-level and aggregate-level studies, but this has been rarely studied in the elderly. A cross-national study examining the relationship between elderly suicide rates (y-axis) and educational attainment (x-axis) was undertaken with the 'a priori' hypothesis that the relationship would be curvilinear and follow a U-shaped curve with the quadratic equation Y = A + BX + CX(2), where A, B and C are constants. Data on suicide rates for both sexes in the age-bands 65-74 years and 75+ years, and the Education Index (a proxy measure of educational attainment) were ascertained from the World Health Organisation and the United Nations websites, respectively. The main finding was the predicted curvilinear relationship between suicide rates, in both sexes in both the elderly age-bands, and the Education Index fitting the quadratic equation Y = A + BX + CX(2). Given the cross-sectional study design, a causal relationship cannot be assumed. The impact of educational attainment on elderly suicide rates may occur through interaction with other factors, mediation of the effects of other factors, or by its effects being mediated by other factors, and require further study.

Fatal occupational accidents in Danish fishing vessels 1989-2005.

PubMed

Laursen, Lise H; Hansen, Henrik L; Jensen, Olaf C

2008-06-01

The purpose of the study was to study the circumstances and incidence rates of fatal accidents in inspection obligated and non-inspection obligated Danish fishing vessels to identify areas for prevention. Information about the fatalities came from maritime authority reports, including vessel disaster reports, post mortem reports, maritime inquiries and police reports. The person- and vessel years at risk came from the Danish Directorate of Fisheries. During the period 1989-2005, 114 fatalities occurred. Sixty-one of the fatalities occurred in 36 vessel disasters mainly caused by foundering/capsizing due to stability changes in rough weather and collisions; 39 fatal occupational accidents mainly occurred on the larger inspection obligated trawlers during fishing. In the remaining 14 other fatal accidents, the main causal factors were difficult embarking/disembarking conditions by darkness in foreign ports and alcohol intoxication. In the period 1995-2005, the overall incidence rate was 10 per 10,000 fishermen per year with no down-going trend during that period. The fatal accident rates are still too high, despite the efforts to reduce the risk. Increased focus on regular and repeated safety training for all fishermen and improved safety measures are needed, especially in the underscored areas of sea disasters concerning small vessels and occupational accidents on big vessels. Better registration of time at risk for fishermen is needed to validate the effect of the safety measures.

Isolation and identification of mycoparasitic isolates of Trichoderma asperellum with potential for suppression of black pod disease of cacao in Cameroon

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Alternative measures to chemical fungicides are needed to control Phytophthora megakarya, the main causal agent of black pod diseasein Central and West Africa. Precolonized plate and detached cacao pod assays were used to screen fungal isolates for mycoparasitismon P. megakarya. Of over 200 isolates...

Estimating Causal Effects of Education Interventions Using a Two-Rating Regression Discontinuity Design: Lessons from a Simulation Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porter, Kristin E.; Reardon, Sean F.; Unlu, Fatih; Bloom, Howard S.; Robinson-Cimpian, Joseph P.

2014-01-01

A valuable extension of the single-rating regression discontinuity design (RDD) is a multiple-rating RDD (MRRDD). To date, four main methods have been used to estimate average treatment effects at the multiple treatment frontiers of an MRRDD: the "surface" method, the "frontier" method, the "binding-score" method, and…

Values Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-10-01

that individualistic employees in individualistic organizations and collectivistic employees in collectivistic organizations show greater job...with Parsons’ causal assumption, in the nineties values were recognized on top of the cultural control –values control norms which in turn control...determines intention which may end in behavior. 7 Defining Human Values Cross- cultural theories on values emerged in the 80s developed by three main

Psychological Autopsy Studies as Diagnostic Tools: Are They Methodologically Flawed?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hjelmeland, Heidi; Dieserud, Gudrun; Dyregrov, Kari; Knizek, Birthe L.; Leenaars, Antoon A.

2012-01-01

One of the most established "truths" in suicidology is that almost all (90% or more) of those who kill themselves suffer from one or more mental disorders, and a causal link between the two is implied. Psychological autopsy (PA) studies constitute one main evidence base for this conclusion. However, there has been little reflection on the…

Neuromotor Deficits in Developmental Coordination Disorder: Evidence from a Reach-to-Grasp Task

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biancotto, Marina; Skabar, Aldo; Bulgheroni, Maria; Carrozzi, Marco; Zoia, Stefania

2011-01-01

Developmental coordination disorder (DCD) has been classified as a specific learning disability, nonetheless the underlying cognitive mechanisms are still a matter of discussion. After a summary of the main hypotheses on the principal neuromotor causes of DCD, this study applies a causal model framework to describe the possible coexistence of more…

Use of Gold Nanoparticle Fertilizer Enhances the Ginsenoside Contents and Anti-Inflammatory Effects of Red Ginseng.

PubMed

Kang, Hee; Hwang, Yun-Gu; Lee, Taek-Guen; Jin, Cheng-Ri; Cho, Chi Heung; Jeong, Hee-Yeong; Kim, Dae-Ok

2016-10-28

Red ginseng, a steamed and sun-dried ginseng, is a popular health-promoting food in Korea and other Asian countries. We introduced nanofertilizer technology using gold nanoparticles in an effort to develop red ginseng with an elevated level of ginsenosides, the main active compounds of ginseng. Shoots of 6-year-old ginseng plants were fertilized three times with colloidal gold nanoparticle sprays. Red ginseng extract was prepared from the main roots. The concentrations of gold and ginsenosides were measured following gold nanoparticle treatment. To evaluate the anti-inflammatory effects, mouse peritoneal macrophages of male BALB/c mouse were stimulated with lipopolysaccharide plus interferon-γ in the presence of extracts from red ginseng with or without gold nanoparticle treatment. The content of ginsenosides, such as Rg1, Re, Rf, and Rb1, increased in ginseng treated with gold nanofertilizer whereas the steaming process increased only the levels of Rd and Rg3. The levels of nitric oxide, inducible nitric oxide synthase, and interleukin-6, but not tumor necrosis factor-α, were more suppressed in macrophages treated with extract from gold nanoparticle-treated red ginseng. Our results show that the use of a colloidal gold nanoparticle fertilizer improved the synthesis of ginsenosides in ginseng and enhanced the anti-inflammatory effects of red ginseng. Further research is required to elucidate the causal factors for the gold-induced change in ginsenoside synthesis and to determine the in vivo effect of gold nanoparticle-treated ginseng.

Experimentally Induced Repeated Anhydrobiosis in the Eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer.

PubMed

Czernekova, Michaela; Jönsson, K Ingemar

2016-01-01

Tardigrades represent one of the main animal groups with anhydrobiotic capacity at any stage of their life cycle. The ability of tardigrades to survive repeated cycles of anhydrobiosis has rarely been studied but is of interest to understand the factors constraining anhydrobiotic survival. The main objective of this study was to investigate the patterns of survival of the eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer under repeated cycles of desiccation, and the potential effect of repeated desiccation on size, shape and number of storage cells. We also analyzed potential change in body size, gut content and frequency of mitotic storage cells. Specimens were kept under non-cultured conditions and desiccated under controlled relative humidity. After each desiccation cycle 10 specimens were selected for analysis of morphometric characteristics and mitosis. The study demonstrates that tardigrades may survive up to 6 repeated desiccations, with declining survival rates with increased number of desiccations. We found a significantly higher proportion of animals that were unable to contract properly into a tun stage during the desiccation process at the 5th and 6th desiccations. Also total number of storage cells declined at the 5th and 6th desiccations, while no effect on storage cell size was observed. The frequency of mitotic storage cells tended to decline with higher number of desiccation cycles. Our study shows that the number of consecutive cycles of anhydrobiosis that R. coronifer may undergo is limited, with increased inability for tun formation and energetic constraints as possible causal factors.

The risk perception paradox--implications for governance and communication of natural hazards.

PubMed

Wachinger, Gisela; Renn, Ortwin; Begg, Chloe; Kuhlicke, Christian

2013-06-01

This article reviews the main insights from selected literature on risk perception, particularly in connection with natural hazards. It includes numerous case studies on perception and social behavior dealing with floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wild fires, and landslides. The review reveals that personal experience of a natural hazard and trust--or lack of trust--in authorities and experts have the most substantial impact on risk perception. Cultural and individual factors such as media coverage, age, gender, education, income, social status, and others do not play such an important role but act as mediators or amplifiers of the main causal connections between experience, trust, perception, and preparedness to take protective actions. When analyzing the factors of experience and trust on risk perception and on the likeliness of individuals to take preparedness action, the review found that a risk perception paradox exists in that it is assumed that high risk perception will lead to personal preparedness and, in the next step, to risk mitigation behavior. However, this is not necessarily true. In fact, the opposite can occur if individuals with high risk perception still choose not to personally prepare themselves in the face of a natural hazard. Therefore, based on the results of the review, this article offers three explanations suggesting why this paradox might occur. These findings have implications for future risk governance and communication as well as for the willingness of individuals to invest in risk preparedness or risk mitigation actions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Experimentally Induced Repeated Anhydrobiosis in the Eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Tardigrades represent one of the main animal groups with anhydrobiotic capacity at any stage of their life cycle. The ability of tardigrades to survive repeated cycles of anhydrobiosis has rarely been studied but is of interest to understand the factors constraining anhydrobiotic survival. The main objective of this study was to investigate the patterns of survival of the eutardigrade Richtersius coronifer under repeated cycles of desiccation, and the potential effect of repeated desiccation on size, shape and number of storage cells. We also analyzed potential change in body size, gut content and frequency of mitotic storage cells. Specimens were kept under non-cultured conditions and desiccated under controlled relative humidity. After each desiccation cycle 10 specimens were selected for analysis of morphometric characteristics and mitosis. The study demonstrates that tardigrades may survive up to 6 repeated desiccations, with declining survival rates with increased number of desiccations. We found a significantly higher proportion of animals that were unable to contract properly into a tun stage during the desiccation process at the 5th and 6th desiccations. Also total number of storage cells declined at the 5th and 6th desiccations, while no effect on storage cell size was observed. The frequency of mitotic storage cells tended to decline with higher number of desiccation cycles. Our study shows that the number of consecutive cycles of anhydrobiosis that R. coronifer may undergo is limited, with increased inability for tun formation and energetic constraints as possible causal factors. PMID:27828978

Investigation of characteristics and risk factors of sports injuries in young soccer players: a retrospective study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The participation of children and adolescents in sports has become increasingly frequent, including soccer. This growing involvement gives rise to concerns regarding the risk of sports injuries. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to describe the musculoskeletal injuries in young soccer players. Methods 301 male soccer players with a mean age 14.67 ± 2.08 years were randomly recruited. The Referred Condition Inquiry was used to collect information on the mechanism of injury and anatomic site affected as well as personal data on the participants. The variables were analyzed based on the degree of association using Goodman’s test for contrasts between multinomial populations, with the p < 0.05. Results Among the 301 athletes, 24.25% reported at least one injury. With regard to height, taller individuals reported more injuries than shorter individuals (62.5% and 37.5%, respectively; p < 0.05). Injuries were more frequent among players with a training duration greater than five years (69.65%) in comparison to those who trained for a shorter duration (30.35%) (p < 0.05). The lower limbs, especially the ankle/foot and knee, were the most affected anatomic sites. Impact was the most common mechanism of injury. Conclusion The young practitioners of soccer analyzed had low rates of injury. The main causal mechanism was the impact. A taller height and longer exposure to training were the main risk factors for injury among young soccer players. PMID:23602027