Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bentler, Peter M.

2016-01-01

The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

Gender stress: a preliminary survey with specific reference to female physicians.

PubMed

Davis, E M

1993-09-01

Practicing female physicians in Trinidad and Tobago were studied to identify major causal factors of negative stress. Results indicated that major stressors were as follows: job (36%), finance (32%), children (20%), relationships (20%). The minor stressors identified were: children (48%), finance (36%), relationships (36%), job (32%), and health (20%). The physicians showed the ability to cope with the stress and this was attributed to, inter alia, self-sufficiency, empowerment, self-fulfillment and gender.

Genetic Instrumental Variable Studies of Effects of Prenatal Risk Factors

PubMed Central

von Hinke Kessler Scholder, Stephanie

2013-01-01

Identifying the effects of maternal risk factors during pregnancy on infant and child health is an area of tremendous research interest. However, of interest to policy makers is unraveling the causal effects of prenatal risk factors, not their associations with child health, which may be confounded by several unobserved factors. In this paper, we evaluate the utility of genetic variants in three genes that have unequivocal evidence of being related to three major risk factors – CHRNA3 for smoking, ADH1B for alcohol use, and FTO for obesity – as instrumental variables for identifying the causal effects of such factors during pregnancy. Using two independent datasets, we find that these variants are overall predictive of the risk factors and are not systematically related to observed confounders, suggesting that they may be useful instruments. We also find some suggestive evidence that genetic effects are stronger during than before pregnancy. We provide an empirical example illustrating the use of these genetic variants as instruments to evaluate the effects of risk factors on birth weight. Finally, we offer suggestions for researchers contemplating the use of these variants as instruments. PMID:23701534

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nemani, Ramakrishna R.

2016-01-01

Photosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe.

Standards of Coherence in Second Language Reading: Sentence Connectivity and Reading Proficiency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nahatame, Shingo

2017-01-01

Standards of coherence are one of the major factors that influence reading comprehension. This study investigated the standards of coherence that second language (L2) learners employ when reading. In a pair of experiments, Japanese learners of English read two-sentence texts with varying causal and semantic relatedness between sentences and then…

Some Learning Disabilities of Socially Disadvantaged Puerto Rican and Negro Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cohen, S. Alan

The findings of several tests are used to describe some learning disabilities and patterns common in lower-class Puerto Rican and Negro children. In particular, perceptual dysfunction is pointed to as a major causal factor in the reading problems of the disadvantaged. In one urban slum school, 40 percent of first graders showed serious dysfunction…

Causal Factors Attributed to Student Success on the California High School Exit Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rose, Nikita A.

2011-01-01

American students are failing to demonstrate expected competency on basic skills taught in schools. The educational system needs a major overhaul to address declines in scholarly engagement. The State Board of Education (SBE) designed the California High School Exit Exam (CAHSEE) to give some merit to the high school diploma. Minorities and…

Questions on causality and responsibility arising from an outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in Norway

PubMed Central

Iversen, Bjørn G; Hofmann, Bjørn; Aavitsland, Preben

2008-01-01

In 2002, Norway experienced a large outbreak of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in hospitals with 231 confirmed cases. This fuelled intense public and professional debates on what were the causes and who were responsible. In epidemiology, other sciences, in philosophy and in law there is a long tradition of discussing the concept of causality. We use this outbreak as a case; apply various theories of causality from different disciplines to discuss the roles and responsibilities of some of the parties involved. Mackie's concept of INUS conditions, Hill's nine viewpoints to study association for claiming causation, deterministic and probabilistic ways of reasoning, all shed light on the issues of causality in this outbreak. Moreover, applying legal theories of causation (counterfactual reasoning and the "but-for" test and the NESS test) proved especially useful, but the case also illustrated the weaknesses of the various theories of causation. We conclude that many factors contributed to causing the outbreak, but that contamination of a medical device in the production facility was the major necessary condition. The reuse of the medical device in hospitals contributed primarily to the size of the outbreak. The unintended error by its producer – and to a minor extent by the hospital practice – was mainly due to non-application of relevant knowledge and skills, and appears to constitute professional negligence. Due to criminal procedure laws and other factors outside the discourse of causality, no one was criminally charged for the outbreak which caused much suffering and shortening the life of at least 34 people. PMID:18947429

Etiology in psychiatry: embracing the reality of poly‐gene‐environmental causation of mental illness

PubMed Central

Uher, Rudolf; Zwicker, Alyson

2017-01-01

Intriguing findings on genetic and environmental causation suggest a need to reframe the etiology of mental disorders. Molecular genetics shows that thousands of common and rare genetic variants contribute to mental illness. Epidemiological studies have identified dozens of environmental exposures that are associated with psychopathology. The effect of environment is likely conditional on genetic factors, resulting in gene‐environment interactions. The impact of environmental factors also depends on previous exposures, resulting in environment‐environment interactions. Most known genetic and environmental factors are shared across multiple mental disorders. Schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and major depressive disorder, in particular, are closely causally linked. Synthesis of findings from twin studies, molecular genetics and epidemiological research suggests that joint consideration of multiple genetic and environmental factors has much greater explanatory power than separate studies of genetic or environmental causation. Multi‐factorial gene‐environment interactions are likely to be a generic mechanism involved in the majority of cases of mental illness, which is only partially tapped by existing gene‐environment studies. Future research may cut across psychiatric disorders and address poly‐causation by considering multiple genetic and environmental measures across the life course with a specific focus on the first two decades of life. Integrative analyses of poly‐causation including gene‐environment and environment‐environment interactions can realize the potential for discovering causal types and mechanisms that are likely to generate new preventive and therapeutic tools. PMID:28498595

The Causality of Evolution on Different Fitness Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyawahare, Saurabh; Austin, Robert; Zhang, Qiucen; Kim, Hyunsung; Bestoso, John

2013-03-01

Evolution of antibiotic resistance is a growing problem. One major reason why most antibiotics fail is because of mutations on drug targets (e.g. essential enzymes). Sequencing of clinically resistant isolates have shown that multiple mutational-hotspots exist in coding regions, which could potentially prohibit the binding of drugs. However, it is not clear whether the appearance of each mutation is random or influenced by other factors. In this paper, we compare evolution of resistance to ciprofloxacin from two distinct but well characterized genetic backgrounds. By combining our recently developed evolution reactor and deep whole-genome sequencing, we show different alleles of σs factor lead to fixation of different mutations in gyrA gene that confer ciprofloxacin resistance to bacteria Escherichia coli. Such causality of evolution in different genes provides an opportunity to control the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Sponsored by the NCI/NIH Physical Sciences Oncology Centers

Climate Change and Collective Violence.

PubMed

Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

2017-03-20

Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and (c) by addressing underlying risk factors for collective violence, such as poverty and socioeconomic disparities.

Complicating causality: patient and professional perspectives on obstetric fistula in Nigeria.

PubMed

Phillips, Beth S; Ononokpono, Dorothy N; Udofia, Nsikanabasi W

2016-09-01

Obstetric fistula, a preventable maternal morbidity characterised by chronic bladder and/or bowel incontinence, is widespread in Nigeria. This qualitative, multi-site study examined the competing narratives on obstetric fistula causality in Nigeria. Research methods were participant observation and in-depth interviews with 86 fistula patients and 43 healthcare professionals. The study found that both patient and professional narratives identified limited access to medical facilities as a major factor leading to obstetric fistula. Patients and professionals beliefs regarding the access problem, however, differed significantly. The majority of fistula patients reported either delivering or attempting to deliver in medical facilities and most patients attributed fistula to a lack of trained medical staff and mismanagement at medical facilities. Conversely, a majority of health professionals believed that women developed obstetric fistula because they chose to deliver at home due to women's traditional beliefs about womanhood and childbirth. Both groups described financial constraints and inadequate transport to medical facilities during complicated labour as related to obstetric fistula onset. Programmatic insights derived from these findings should inform fistula prevention interventions both with healthcare professionals and with Nigerian women.

The Labour Market Experience of University Graduates in Sri Lanka

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandrasiri, Sunil

2008-01-01

Graduate unemployment has been a major socio-politico-economic problem in the small open economy of Sri Lanka for the past 35 years. The nature of the problem, causal factors and policy responses are examined in this paper with a special focus on the role of higher education within a highly competitive and knowledge-based economic environment. The…

Evaluation of near-miss and adverse events in radiation oncology using a comprehensive causal factor taxonomy.

PubMed

Spraker, Matthew B; Fain, Robert; Gopan, Olga; Zeng, Jing; Nyflot, Matthew; Jordan, Loucille; Kane, Gabrielle; Ford, Eric

Incident learning systems (ILSs) are a popular strategy for improving safety in radiation oncology (RO) clinics, but few reports focus on the causes of errors in RO. The goal of this study was to test a causal factor taxonomy developed in 2012 by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine and adopted for use in the RO: Incident Learning System (RO-ILS). Three hundred event reports were randomly selected from an institutional ILS database and Safety in Radiation Oncology (SAFRON), an international ILS. The reports were split into 3 groups of 100 events each: low-risk institutional, high-risk institutional, and SAFRON. Three raters retrospectively analyzed each event for contributing factors using the American Association of Physicists in Medicine taxonomy. No events were described by a single causal factor (median, 7). The causal factor taxonomy was found to be applicable for all events, but 4 causal factors were not described in the taxonomy: linear accelerator failure (n = 3), hardware/equipment failure (n = 2), failure to follow through with a quality improvement intervention (n = 1), and workflow documentation was misleading (n = 1). The most common causal factor categories contributing to events were similar in all event types. The most common specific causal factor to contribute to events was a "slip causing physical error." Poor human factors engineering was the only causal factor found to contribute more frequently to high-risk institutional versus low-risk institutional events. The taxonomy in the study was found to be applicable for all events and may be useful in root cause analyses and future studies. Communication and human behaviors were the most common errors affecting all types of events. Poor human factors engineering was found to specifically contribute to high-risk more than low-risk institutional events, and may represent a strategy for reducing errors in all types of events. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Radiation Oncology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exploring the relationship between child physical abuse and adult dating violence using a causal inference approach in an emerging adult population in South Korea.

PubMed

Jennings, Wesley G; Park, MiRang; Richards, Tara N; Tomsich, Elizabeth; Gover, Angela; Powers, Ráchael A

2014-12-01

Child maltreatment is one of the most commonly examined risk factors for violence in dating relationships. Often referred to as the intergenerational transmission of violence or cycle of violence, a fair amount of research suggests that experiencing abuse during childhood significantly increases the likelihood of involvement in violent relationships later, but these conclusions are primarily based on correlational research designs. Furthermore, the majority of research linking childhood maltreatment and dating violence has focused on samples of young people from the United States. Considering these limitations, the current study uses a rigorous, propensity score matching approach to estimate the causal effect of experiencing child physical abuse on adult dating violence among a large sample of South Korean emerging adults. Results indicate that the link between child physical abuse and adult dating violence is spurious rather than causal. Study limitations and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systemic risk and causality dynamics of the world international shipping market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xin; Podobnik, Boris; Kenett, Dror Y.; Eugene Stanley, H.

2014-12-01

Various studies have reported that many economic systems have been exhibiting an increase in the correlation between different market sectors, a factor that exacerbates the level of systemic risk. We measure this systemic risk of three major world shipping markets, (i) the new ship market, (ii) the second-hand ship market, and (iii) the freight market, as well as the shipping stock market. Based on correlation networks during three time periods, that prior to the financial crisis, during the crisis, and after the crisis, minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs) both exhibit complex dynamics, i.e., different market sectors tend to be more closely linked during financial crisis. Brownian distance correlation and Granger causality test both can be used to explore the directional interconnectedness of market sectors, while Brownian distance correlation captures more dependent relationships, which are not observed in the Granger causality test. These two measures can also identify and quantify market regression periods, implying that they contain predictive power for the current crisis.

Do people agree about the causes of behavior? A social relations analysis of behavior ratings and causal attributions.

PubMed

Robins, Richard W; Mendelsohn, Gerald A; Connell, Joanie B; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2004-02-01

Two studies examined consistency and agreement in behavior ratings and causal attributions. In Study 1, participants (N = 280) engaged in a series of getting-acquainted conversations in one of 3 communication media (face-to-face, telephone, computer mediated); in Study 2, participants (N = 120) engaged in a competitive group task. In both studies, participants rated themselves and their interaction partners on a set of behaviors and then made attributions about the causes of those behaviors. The major findings were that (a) participants consistently favored some causal factors over others in explaining both their own and their partners' behavior, supporting the existence of generalized attributional styles; and (b) participants showed moderate self-partner and partner-partner agreement about behavior but virtually no agreement about the causes of behavior. Thus, in brief interactions people tend to see themselves and others through the lens of their stable patterns of perceiving and interpreting behavior.

Beliefs and perceptions about the causes of breast cancer: a case-control study.

PubMed

Thomson, Allyson K; Heyworth, Jane S; Girschik, Jennifer; Slevin, Terry; Saunders, Christobel; Fritschi, Lin

2014-08-21

Attributions of causality are common for many diseases, including breast cancer. The risk of developing breast cancer can be reduced by modifications to lifestyle and behaviours to minimise exposure to specific risk factors, such as obesity. However, these modifications will only occur if women believe that certain behaviours/lifestyle factors have an impact on the development of breast cancer. The Breast Cancer, Environment and Employment Study is a case-control study of breast cancer conducted in Western Australia between 2009 and 2011. As part of the study 1109 women with breast cancer and 1633 women without the disease completed a Risk Perception Questionnaire in which they were asked in an open-ended question for specific cause/s to the development of breast cancer in themselves or in others. The study identified specific causal beliefs, and assessed differences in the beliefs between women with and without breast cancer. The most common attributions in women without breast cancer were to familial or inherited factors (77.6%), followed by lifestyle factors, such as poor diet and smoking (47.1%), and environmental factors, such as food additives (45.4%). The most common attributions in women with breast cancer were to mental or emotional factors (46.3%), especially stress, followed by lifestyle factors (38.6%) and physiological factors (37.5%), particularly relating to hormonal history. While the majority of participants in this study provided one or more causal attributions for breast cancer, many of the reported risk factors do not correspond to those generally accepted by the scientific community. These misperceptions could be having a significant impact on the success of prevention and early detection programs that seek to minimise the pain and suffering caused by this disease. In particular, women who have no family history of the disease may not work to minimise their exposure to the modifiable risk factors.

Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor (AMF): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

AD Award Number: DAMD17-02-1-0586 TITLE: Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia PRINCIPAL...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Tumor Secreted Autocrine Motility Factor ( AMF ): Causal Role in an Animal Model of Cachexia 5b. GRANT NUMBER DAM D1 7-02-1-0586 5c...quality of life and postpone mortality. We proposed that autocrine motility factor ( AMF ) is released into the bloodstream from cancer sites and

Academic Success Factors: An IT Student Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Aimao; Aasheim, Cheryl L.

2011-01-01

Numerous studies have identified causal factors for academic success. Factors vary from personal factors, such as cognitive style (McKenzie & Schweitzer, 2001), to social factors, such as culture differences (Aysan, Tanriogen, & Tanriogen, 1996). However, in these studies it is re-searchers who theorized the causal dimensions and…

Has patient survival following renal transplantation improved in the era of modern immunosuppression?

PubMed

Hernández, Domingo; Moreso, Francesc

2013-01-01

Renal transplantation (TX) is the treatment of choice in the majority of patients with chronic kidney disease. But, these patients have a high mortality rate with respect to the general population despite new immunosuppression treatments and improved clinical management. This justifies that the excellent results obtained in the short terms do not have a parallel clinical benefit in the long term. This worrying situation is probably due to a high prevalence of cardiovascular conditions and infectious and neoplastic entities amongst this population against a backdrop of immunosuppression treatment. Furthermore, there is interaction between these processes, which share causal factors and common pathogenic mechanisms. Mortality thus increases. Therefore, identifying the causes of death and the risk factors, applying morbidity and mortality predictive models and intervening in causal factors could constitute some of the strategies for improving renal transplantation results in terms of survival. This review analyses some of the evidence conditioning this high mortality rate following TX, as well and the therapeutic and prognostic aspects associated with co-morbidity: 1) Magnitude of the problem and causes of death among sufferers; 2) Identification of mortality risk factors; 3) Therapeutic strategies for decrease post-TX mortality and; 4) Prediction of mortality and ischaemic heart disease.

Obesity and peripheral arterial disease: A Mendelian Randomization analysis.

PubMed

Huang, Ya; Xu, Min; Xie, Lan; Wang, Tiange; Huang, Xiaolin; Lv, Xiaofei; Chen, Ying; Ding, Lin; Lin, Lin; Wang, Weiqing; Bi, Yufang; Sun, Yimin; Zhang, Yifei; Ning, Guang

2016-04-01

Observational studies showed that obesity is a major risk factor for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). However, conventional epidemiology studies are vulnerable to residual bias from confounding factors. We aimed to explore the causality of obesity in development of PAD using Mendelian Randomization (MR) approach. A MR analysis was performed in 11,477 community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above recruited from two nearby communities during 2011-2013 in Shanghai, China. We genotyped 14 body mass index (BMI) associated common variants identified and validated in East Asians. PAD was defined as ankle-to-brachial index (ABI) <0.90 or >1.40. Weighted BMI genetic risk score (GRS) was used as the Instrumental Variable (IV). After adjusted for confounding factors, we found that each standard deviation (SD, 2.76 points) increase in BMI-GRS was associated with 0.43 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36-0.49) kg/m(2) increase in BMI (P < 0.0001) and an odds ratio (OR) for PAD of 1.17 (95% CI: 1.07-1.27; P = 0.0004). Compared with the lowest quartile of BMI-GRS, the second, third and highest quartile associated with 9%, 19% and 45% increment of PAD risk, respectively (P for trend = 0.002). In the MR analysis, we demonstrated a causal relationship between obesity and PAD (OR = 1.44 per BMI-unit, 95% CI: 1.18-1.75; P = 0.0003). This study suggested that obesity may be causally associated with PAD after controlling for the potential intermediate factors like hypertension, dyslipidemia and hyperglycemia. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Research on injury compensation and health outcomes: ignoring the problem of reverse causality led to a biased conclusion.

PubMed

Spearing, Natalie M; Connelly, Luke B; Nghiem, Hong S; Pobereskin, Louis

2012-11-01

This study highlights the serious consequences of ignoring reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health outcomes and demonstrates a technique for resolving this problem of observational data. Data from an English longitudinal study on factors, including claims for compensation, associated with recovery from neck pain (whiplash) after rear-end collisions are used to demonstrate the potential for reverse causality bias. Although it is commonly believed that claiming compensation leads to worse recovery, it is also possible that poor recovery may lead to compensation claims--a point that is seldom considered and never addressed empirically. This pedagogical study compares the association between compensation claiming and recovery when reverse causality bias is ignored and when it is addressed, controlling for the same observable factors. When reverse causality is ignored, claimants appear to have a worse recovery than nonclaimants; however, when reverse causality bias is addressed, claiming compensation appears to have a beneficial effect on recovery, ceteris paribus. To avert biased policy and judicial decisions that might inadvertently disadvantage people with compensable injuries, there is an urgent need for researchers to address reverse causality bias in studies on compensation-related factors and health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Workload management and geographic disorientation in aviation incidents: A review of the ASRS data base

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Henry P.; Tham, Mingpo; Wickens, Christopher D.

1993-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident reports are reviewed in two related areas: pilots' failures to appropriately manage tasks, and breakdowns in geographic orientation. Examination of 51 relevant reports on task management breakdowns revealed that altitude busts and inappropriate runway usee were the most frequently reported consequences. Task management breakdowns appeared to occur at all levels of expertise, and prominent causal factors were related to breakdowns in crew communications, over-involvement with the flight management system and, for small (general aviation) aircraft, preoccupation with weather. Analysis of the 83 cases of geographic disorientation suggested that these too occurred at all levels of pilot experience. With regard to causal factors, a majority was related to poor cockpit resource management, in which inattention led to a loss of geographic awareness. Other leading causes were related to poor weather and poor decision making. The potential of the ASRS database for contributing to research and design issues is addressed.

Measuring the wildland firefighting safety culture change - an analysis of entrapment rates from 1994 to 2013

Treesearch

Bob Loveless; Adam Hernandez

2015-01-01

The tragic fatality events of the mid-1990s and subsequent studies led to a concentrated effort to increase safety in the US federal wildland firefighter community beginning in 2000. Addressing human factors (HF) as a causal agent in accidents was a major focal point for this cultural change. To examine the effectiveness of this change, we hypothesized a decline in...

A review of caffeine use as a risk or protective factor for women's health and pregnancy.

PubMed

Peacock, Amy; Mattick, Richard P; Bruno, Raimondo

2017-07-01

To provide a narrative synthesis of recently published studies on caffeine use as a risk or protective factor for health outcomes, with a focus on women's health and pregnancy. Based on predominantly observational studies, moderate caffeine intake has been shown to be a protective factor for liver cancer, certain bowel conditions, colorectal cancer, skin cancer, and regular menstrual cycle function. However, heavy consumption is a risk factor for osteoporosis, urinary incontinence, and poorer birth and child developmental outcomes. Residual confounding and issues surrounding retrospective self-reported intake are cited as key limitations in the majority of these studies. Moderate caffeine intake has been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease and metabolic syndrome; however, recent genetic epidemiology studies provide no evidence for a causal relationship. Greater inclusion of female participants in studies, and analysis of sex differences in the relationship between caffeine intake and certain health conditions, is necessary. The current literature suggests caffeine's role as a risk or protective factor differs across health conditions. Often, there are plausible biological mechanisms for this relationship. However, a continued precautionary stance is recommended until direct causal pathways are established. Review of recently published studies does not suggest that current intake guidelines for adults and for pregnant woman need to be modified.

The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea

PubMed Central

Khang, Young-Ho

2015-01-01

This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals. PMID:26137845

The causality between smoking and lung cancer among groups and individuals: addressing issues in tobacco litigation in South Korea.

PubMed

Khang, Young-Ho

2015-01-01

This article discusses issues on the causality between smoking and lung cancer, which have been raised during the tobacco litigation in South Korea. It should be recognized that the explanatory ability of risk factor(s) for inter-individual variations in disease occurrence is different from the causal contribution of the risk factor(s) to disease occurrence. The affected subjects of the tobacco litigation in South Korea are lung cancer patients with a history of cigarette smoking. Thus, the attributable fraction of the exposed rather than the population attributable fraction should be used in the tobacco litigation regarding the causal contribution of smoking to lung cancer. Scientific evidence for the causal relationship between smoking and lung cancer is based on studies of individuals and groups, studies in animals and humans, studies that are observational or experimental, studies in laboratories and communities, and studies in both underdeveloped and developed countries. The scientific evidence collected is applicable to both groups and individuals. The probability of causation, which is calculated based on the attributable fraction for the association between smoking and lung cancer, could be utilized as evidence to prove causality in individuals.

Dynamics of safety performance and culture: a group model building approach.

PubMed

Goh, Yang Miang; Love, Peter E D; Stagbouer, Greg; Annesley, Chris

2012-09-01

The management of occupational health and safety (OHS) including safety culture interventions is comprised of complex problems that are often hard to scope and define. Due to the dynamic nature and complexity of OHS management, the concept of system dynamics (SD) is used to analyze accident prevention. In this paper, a system dynamics group model building (GMB) approach is used to create a causal loop diagram of the underlying factors influencing the OHS performance of a major drilling and mining contractor in Australia. While the organization has invested considerable resources into OHS their disabling injury frequency rate (DIFR) has not been decreasing. With this in mind, rich individualistic knowledge about the dynamics influencing the DIFR was acquired from experienced employees with operations, health and safety and training background using a GMB workshop. Findings derived from the workshop were used to develop a series of causal loop diagrams that includes a wide range of dynamics that can assist in better understanding the causal influences OHS performance. The causal loop diagram provides a tool for organizations to hypothesize the dynamics influencing effectiveness of OHS management, particularly the impact on DIFR. In addition the paper demonstrates that the SD GMB approach has significant potential in understanding and improving OHS management. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of linguistic and cognitive factors on the time course of verb-based implicit causality.

PubMed

Koornneef, Arnout; Dotlačil, Jakub; van den Broek, Paul; Sanders, Ted

2016-01-01

In three eye-tracking experiments the influence of the Dutch causal connective "want" (because) and the working memory capacity of readers on the usage of verb-based implicit causality was examined. Experiments 1 and 2 showed that although a causal connective is not required to activate implicit causality information during reading, effects of implicit causality surfaced more rapidly and were more pronounced when a connective was present in the discourse than when it was absent. In addition, Experiment 3 revealed that-in contrast to previous claims-the activation of implicit causality is not a resource-consuming mental operation. Moreover, readers with higher and lower working memory capacities behaved differently in a dual-task situation. Higher span readers were more likely to use implicit causality when they had all their working memory resources at their disposal. Lower span readers showed the opposite pattern as they were more likely to use the implicit causality cue in the case of an additional working memory load. The results emphasize that both linguistic and cognitive factors mediate the impact of implicit causality on text comprehension. The implications of these results are discussed in terms of the ongoing controversies in the literature-that is, the focusing-integration debate and the debates on the source of implicit causality.

How Can Historical Understanding Best be Assessed? Use of Prediction Tasks To Assess How Students Understand the Role of Causal Factors that Produce Historical Events.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alonso-Tapia, Jesus; Villa, Jose Luis

1999-01-01

Examines the viability of using hypothetical problems that need the application of causal models for their solution as a method to assessing understanding in the social sciences. Explains that this method was used to describe how seventh-grade students understand causal factors affecting the "discovery and colonization of America." (CMK)

Major depressive disorder is a risk factor for low bone mass, central obesity, and other medical conditions

PubMed Central

Cizza, Giovanni

2011-01-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is one of the most common psychiatric illnesses in the adult population. It is often associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Osteoporosis is also a major public health threat. Multiple studies have reported an association between depression and low bone mineral density, but a causal link between these two conditions is disputed. Here the most important findings of the POWER (Premenopausal, Osteoporosis Women, Alendronate, Depression) Study, a large prospective study of bone turnover in premenopausal women with major depression, are summarized. The endocrine and immune alterations secondary to depression that might affect bone mass, and the possible role of poor lifestyle in the etiology of osteoporosis in subjects with depression, are also reviewed, as is the potential effect of antidepressants on bone loss. It is proposed that depression induces bone loss and osteoporotic fractures, primarily via specific immune and endocrine mechanisms, with poor lifestyle habits as potential contributory factors. PMID:21485748

Using published data in Mendelian randomization: a blueprint for efficient identification of causal risk factors.

PubMed

Burgess, Stephen; Scott, Robert A; Timpson, Nicholas J; Davey Smith, George; Thompson, Simon G

2015-07-01

Finding individual-level data for adequately-powered Mendelian randomization analyses may be problematic. As publicly-available summarized data on genetic associations with disease outcomes from large consortia are becoming more abundant, use of published data is an attractive analysis strategy for obtaining precise estimates of the causal effects of risk factors on outcomes. We detail the necessary steps for conducting Mendelian randomization investigations using published data, and present novel statistical methods for combining data on the associations of multiple (correlated or uncorrelated) genetic variants with the risk factor and outcome into a single causal effect estimate. A two-sample analysis strategy may be employed, in which evidence on the gene-risk factor and gene-outcome associations are taken from different data sources. These approaches allow the efficient identification of risk factors that are suitable targets for clinical intervention from published data, although the ability to assess the assumptions necessary for causal inference is diminished. Methods and guidance are illustrated using the example of the causal effect of serum calcium levels on fasting glucose concentrations. The estimated causal effect of a 1 standard deviation (0.13 mmol/L) increase in calcium levels on fasting glucose (mM) using a single lead variant from the CASR gene region is 0.044 (95 % credible interval -0.002, 0.100). In contrast, using our method to account for the correlation between variants, the corresponding estimate using 17 genetic variants is 0.022 (95 % credible interval 0.009, 0.035), a more clearly positive causal effect.

From Correlates to Causes: Can Quasi-Experimental Studies and Statistical Innovations Bring Us Closer to Identifying the Causes of Antisocial Behavior?

PubMed Central

Jaffee, Sara R.; Strait, Luciana B.; Odgers, Candice L.

2011-01-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this paper, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move us beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that use these methods and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. For most of the risk factors we review, there is evidence that they have causal effects. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems) the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior. PMID:22023141

From correlates to causes: can quasi-experimental studies and statistical innovations bring us closer to identifying the causes of antisocial behavior?

PubMed

Jaffee, Sara R; Strait, Luciana B; Odgers, Candice L

2012-03-01

Longitudinal, epidemiological studies have identified robust risk factors for youth antisocial behavior, including harsh and coercive discipline, maltreatment, smoking during pregnancy, divorce, teen parenthood, peer deviance, parental psychopathology, and social disadvantage. Nevertheless, because this literature is largely based on observational studies, it remains unclear whether these risk factors have truly causal effects. Identifying causal risk factors for antisocial behavior would be informative for intervention efforts and for studies that test whether individuals are differentially susceptible to risk exposures. In this article, we identify the challenges to causal inference posed by observational studies and describe quasi-experimental methods and statistical innovations that may move researchers beyond discussions of risk factors to allow for stronger causal inference. We then review studies that used these methods, and we evaluate whether robust risk factors identified from observational studies are likely to play a causal role in the emergence and development of youth antisocial behavior. There is evidence of causal effects for most of the risk factors we review. However, these effects are typically smaller than those reported in observational studies, suggesting that familial confounding, social selection, and misidentification might also explain some of the association between risk exposures and antisocial behavior. For some risk factors (e.g., smoking during pregnancy, parent alcohol problems), the evidence is weak that they have environmentally mediated effects on youth antisocial behavior. We discuss the implications of these findings for intervention efforts to reduce antisocial behavior and for basic research on the etiology and course of antisocial behavior.

Research requirements to improve safety of civil helicopters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Waters, K. T.

1977-01-01

Helicopter and fixed-wing accident data were reviewed and major accident causal factors were established. The impact of accidents on insurance rates was examined and the differences in fixed-wing and helicopter accident costs discussed. The state of the art in civil helicopter safety was compared to military helicopters. Goals were established based on incorporation of known technology and achievable improvements that require development, as well as administrative-type changes such as the impact of improved operational planning, training, and human factors effects. Specific R and D recommendations are provided with an estimation of the payoffs, timing, and development costs.

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

PubMed Central

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-01-01

Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies. PMID:17645806

Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

PubMed

Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

2007-07-24

People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different types of causal beliefs are held in relation to somatic or mental illness, and a variety of apparently logically incompatible beliefs may be concurrently held. Illness causal beliefs are dynamic and are related to demographic, modernizing, and acculturative factors, and to the current presence of illness. Any assumption of uniformity of illness causal beliefs within a community, even one that is relatively culturally homogeneous, is likely to be misleading. A better understanding of the diversity, and determinants, of illness causal beliefs can be of value in improving our understanding of illness experience, the clinical process, and in developing more effective health services and population health strategies.

Huanglongbing: An overview of a complex pathosystem ravaging the world's citrus.

PubMed

da Graça, John V; Douhan, Greg W; Halbert, Susan E; Keremane, Manjunath L; Lee, Richard F; Vidalakis, Georgios; Zhao, Hongwei

2016-04-01

Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) has become a major disease and limiting factor of production in citrus areas that have become infected. The destruction to the affected citrus industries has resulted in a tremendous increase to support research that in return has resulted in significant information on both applied and basic knowledge concerning this important disease to the global citrus industry. Recent research indicates the relationship between citrus and the causal agent of HLB is shaped by multiple elements, in which host defense responses may also play an important role. This review is intended to provide an overview of the importance of HLB to a wider audience of plant biologists. Recent advances on host-pathogen interactions, population genetics and vectoring of the causal agent are discussed. © 2015 Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The causal role of fatigue in the stress-perceived health relationship: a MetroNet study.

PubMed

Maghout-Juratli, Sham; Janisse, James; Schwartz, Kendra; Arnetz, Bengt B

2010-01-01

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 4 primary care MetroNet centers in metropolitan Detroit. Our objective was to describe the causal role of fatigue in the relationship among stress, stress resiliency, and perceived health in primary care. Fatigue is a public health problem that has been linked to stress and poor health. The causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health is unknown. Four hundred surveys were distributed to adult patients in 4 primary care centers in metropolitan Detroit between 2006 and 2007. Internal consistency reliabilities and principal factor analyses were calculated for the key psychological scales. Perceived health is the primary outcome. Path models were used to study the relationship among stress, fatigue, and perceived health. We also modeled the impact of select stress resiliency factors including sleep, recovery, and social support. Of the 400 distributed surveys, 315 (78.7%) had a response rate of 70% or more and were included in the analysis. Respondents were predominantly middle aged (median age, 43 years); female (58.7%); and African American (52.0%). The majority worked full time (56.5%); did not have a college degree (77.7%); and were not married (55.2%). Fatigue was reported by 59% of respondents, 42.7% of which was unexplained. The path model supported the causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health. The positive effects of sleep, recovery, and social support on fatigue, stress, and perceived health were validated. Fatigue was common in this metropolitan primary care environment and completely mediated the relationship between stress and poor perceived health. Therefore, stress, when significant enough to cause fatigue, may lead to poor health.

Use of allele scores as instrumental variables for Mendelian randomization

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G

2013-01-01

Background An allele score is a single variable summarizing multiple genetic variants associated with a risk factor. It is calculated as the total number of risk factor-increasing alleles for an individual (unweighted score), or the sum of weights for each allele corresponding to estimated genetic effect sizes (weighted score). An allele score can be used in a Mendelian randomization analysis to estimate the causal effect of the risk factor on an outcome. Methods Data were simulated to investigate the use of allele scores in Mendelian randomization where conventional instrumental variable techniques using multiple genetic variants demonstrate ‘weak instrument’ bias. The robustness of estimates using the allele score to misspecification (for example non-linearity, effect modification) and to violations of the instrumental variable assumptions was assessed. Results Causal estimates using a correctly specified allele score were unbiased with appropriate coverage levels. The estimates were generally robust to misspecification of the allele score, but not to instrumental variable violations, even if the majority of variants in the allele score were valid instruments. Using a weighted rather than an unweighted allele score increased power, but the increase was small when genetic variants had similar effect sizes. Naive use of the data under analysis to choose which variants to include in an allele score, or for deriving weights, resulted in substantial biases. Conclusions Allele scores enable valid causal estimates with large numbers of genetic variants. The stringency of criteria for genetic variants in Mendelian randomization should be maintained for all variants in an allele score. PMID:24062299

Mapping historical information for better understanding the causality factors of past disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudou, Martin; Lang, Michel; Vinet, Freddy; Coeur, Denis

2015-04-01

The Flood Directive of 2007 promotes the use of historical information in order to mitigate the impact of future extreme events. According to this text, the study of past events offers new insights for better understanding the causality factors of a disaster, from hydrometeorological keys to socio-political repercussions of the flood. In this presentation we decided to focus on the study of factors leading to the exceptionality of a hydrological flood event. This aspect is regularly pointed out by the feedbacks carried out after a catastrophic event and remains a subject of debate for risk managers. The role of antecedent meteorological conditions is especially underestimated by local authorities. These factors can however be considered as a key issue to appreciate the exceptional character of a hydrological disaster. For example the 2013 June floods in France that affected the region of Pyrenees revealed the significant contribution of snow melting to the discharges recorded. In an article of 2014, Schröter et al. showed that the soil moisture can be considered as a key driver of the generalised flood hazard intensity that affected Germany over the same month of June 2013. With regard to these assessments, some considerations emerge. Does a diachronic appraisal of past disasters point out the main issues responsible for an exceptional flood hazard level? Is there common causality issues involved into these extreme hydrological events? In order to answer these questions this presentation proposes a comparative analysis of nine major floods that impacted the French territory during the XXth century (from 1910 to 2010). The set is composed by different flood typologies (from torrential events to floods resulting from groundwater level rising) so as to get a complete view of flood risk in France. The methodology proposed relies on a cartographic approach to highlight the causality factors of these past hydrological disasters. For instance, mapping the rainfall data over the representation of the maximum discharges recorded can help to understand the significance of the rainfall event. In some cases, the use of textual historical information allows to emphasize the significance of other factors such as snow melting or the influence of anthropogenic infrastructures. Indeed, mapping historical information seems to be an original approach to represent the various spatial and temporal scales of historical disasters and an interesting tool to explore the exceptionality of the hazard level.

Instantaneous and causal connectivity in resting state brain networks derived from functional MRI data.

PubMed

Deshpande, Gopikrishna; Santhanam, Priya; Hu, Xiaoping

2011-01-15

Most neuroimaging studies of resting state networks have concentrated on functional connectivity (FC) based on instantaneous correlation in a single network. In this study we investigated both FC and effective connectivity (EC) based on Granger causality of four important networks at resting state derived from functional magnetic resonance imaging data - default mode network (DMN), hippocampal cortical memory network (HCMN), dorsal attention network (DAN) and fronto-parietal control network (FPCN). A method called correlation-purged Granger causality analysis was used, not only enabling the simultaneous evaluation of FC and EC of all networks using a single multivariate model, but also accounting for the interaction between them resulting from the smoothing of neuronal activity by hemodynamics. FC was visualized using a force-directed layout upon which causal interactions were overlaid. FC results revealed that DAN is very tightly coupled compared to the other networks while the DMN forms the backbone around which the other networks amalgamate. The pattern of bidirectional causal interactions indicates that posterior cingulate and posterior inferior parietal lobule of DMN act as major hubs. The pattern of unidirectional causal paths revealed that hippocampus and anterior prefrontal cortex (aPFC) receive major inputs, likely reflecting memory encoding/retrieval and cognitive integration, respectively. Major outputs emanating from anterior insula and middle temporal area, which are directed at aPFC, may carry information about interoceptive awareness and external environment, respectively, into aPFC for integration, supporting the hypothesis that aPFC-seeded FPCN acts as a control network. Our findings indicate the following. First, regions whose activities are not synchronized interact via time-delayed causal influences. Second, the causal interactions are organized such that cingulo-parietal regions act as hubs. Finally, segregation of different resting state networks is not clear cut but only by soft boundaries. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Implementation and reporting of causal mediation analysis in 2015: a systematic review in epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Liu, Shao-Hsien; Ulbricht, Christine M; Chrysanthopoulou, Stavroula A; Lapane, Kate L

2016-07-20

Causal mediation analysis is often used to understand the impact of variables along the causal pathway of an occurrence relation. How well studies apply and report the elements of causal mediation analysis remains unknown. We systematically reviewed epidemiological studies published in 2015 that employed causal mediation analysis to estimate direct and indirect effects of observed associations between an exposure on an outcome. We identified potential epidemiological studies through conducting a citation search within Web of Science and a keyword search within PubMed. Two reviewers independently screened studies for eligibility. For eligible studies, one reviewer performed data extraction, and a senior epidemiologist confirmed the extracted information. Empirical application and methodological details of the technique were extracted and summarized. Thirteen studies were eligible for data extraction. While the majority of studies reported and identified the effects of measures, most studies lacked sufficient details on the extent to which identifiability assumptions were satisfied. Although most studies addressed issues of unmeasured confounders either from empirical approaches or sensitivity analyses, the majority did not examine the potential bias arising from the measurement error of the mediator. Some studies allowed for exposure-mediator interaction and only a few presented results from models both with and without interactions. Power calculations were scarce. Reporting of causal mediation analysis is varied and suboptimal. Given that the application of causal mediation analysis will likely continue to increase, developing standards of reporting of causal mediation analysis in epidemiological research would be prudent.

Causal attribution for success and failure in mathematics among MDAB pre-diploma students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maidinsah, Hamidah; Embong, Rokiah; Wahab, Zubaidah Abd

2014-07-01

The Program Mengubah Destini Anak Bangsa (MDAB) is a pre-diploma programme catering to SPM school leavers who do not meet the minimum requirement to enter any of UiTM diploma programmes. The study aims to evaluate the perceptions of MDAB students toward the main causal attribution factors underlying students' success and failure in mathematics. Research sample comprised of 482 students from five UiTM branch campuses. Research instrument used was a set of GALUS questionnaire consisting of 36 items based on the Weiner Attribution Theory. Four causal attributions factors for success and failures evaluated are ability, effort, question difficulty and environment. GALUS reliability index was 0.93. The research found that effort appears to be the main causal attribution factor in students' success and failure in mathematics, followed by environment, question difficulty and ability. High achiever students strongly agree that the ability factor influenced their success while low achiever students strongly agree that all attributing factors influenced their failures in mathematics.

NON-MENDELIAN ETIOLOGIC FACTORS IN NEUROPSYCHIATRIC ILLNESS: PLEIOTROPY, EPIGENETICS, AND CONVERGENCE

PubMed Central

Deutsch, Curtis K; McIlvane, William J

2013-01-01

The target article by Charney on behavior genetics/genomics discusses how numerous molecular factors can inform heritability estimations and genetic association studies. These factors find application in the search for genes for behavioral phenotypes, including neuropsychiatric disorders. We elaborate upon how single causal factors can generate multiple phenotypes, and discuss how multiple causal factors may converge on common neurodevelopmental mechanisms. PMID:23095384

Stable Causal Relationships Are Better Causal Relationships.

PubMed

Vasilyeva, Nadya; Blanchard, Thomas; Lombrozo, Tania

2018-05-01

We report three experiments investigating whether people's judgments about causal relationships are sensitive to the robustness or stability of such relationships across a range of background circumstances. In Experiment 1, we demonstrate that people are more willing to endorse causal and explanatory claims based on stable (as opposed to unstable) relationships, even when the overall causal strength of the relationship is held constant. In Experiment 2, we show that this effect is not driven by a causal generalization's actual scope of application. In Experiment 3, we offer evidence that stable causal relationships may be seen as better guides to action. Collectively, these experiments document a previously underappreciated factor that shapes people's causal reasoning: the stability of the causal relationship. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

[FROM STATISTICAL ASSOCIATIONS TO SCIENTIFIC CAUSALITY].

PubMed

Golan, Daniel; Linn, Shay

2015-06-01

The pathogenesis of most chronic diseases is complex and probably involves the interaction of multiple genetic and environmental risk factors. One way to learn about disease triggers is from statistically significant associations in epidemiological studies. However, associations do not necessarily prove causation. Associations can commonly result from bias, confounding and reverse causation. Several paradigms for causality inference have been developed. Henle-Koch postulates are mainly applied for infectious diseases. Austin Bradford Hill's criteria may serve as a practical tool to weigh the evidence regarding the probability that a single new risk factor for a given disease is indeed causal. These criteria are irrelevant for estimating the causal relationship between exposure to a risk factor and disease whenever biological causality has been previously established. Thus, it is highly probable that past exposure of an individual to definite carcinogens is related to his cancer, even without proving an association between this exposure and cancer in his group. For multifactorial diseases, Rothman's model of interacting sets of component causes can be applied.

Preeminence of Staphylococcus aureus in infective endocarditis: a 1-year population-based survey.

PubMed

Selton-Suty, Christine; Célard, Marie; Le Moing, Vincent; Doco-Lecompte, Thanh; Chirouze, Catherine; Iung, Bernard; Strady, Christophe; Revest, Matthieu; Vandenesch, François; Bouvet, Anne; Delahaye, François; Alla, François; Duval, Xavier; Hoen, Bruno

2012-05-01

Observational studies showed that the profile of infective endocarditis (IE) significantly changed over the past decades. However, most studies involved referral centers. We conducted a population-based study to control for this referral bias. The objective was to update the description of characteristics of IE in France and to compare the profile of community-acquired versus healthcare-associated IE. A prospective population-based observational study conducted in all medical facilities from 7 French regions (32% of French individuals aged ≥18 years) identified 497 adults with Duke-Li-definite IE who were first admitted to the hospital in 2008. Main measures included age-standardized and sex-standardized incidence of IE and multivariate Cox regression analysis for risk factors of in-hospital death. The age-standardized and sex-standardized annual incidence of IE was 33.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 30.8-36.9) cases per million inhabitants. The incidence was highest in men aged 75-79 years. A majority of patients had no previously known heart disease. Staphylococci were the most common causal agents, accounting for 36.2% of cases (Staphylococcus aureus, 26.6%; coagulase-negative staphylococci, 9.7%). Healthcare-associated IE represented 26.7% of all cases and exhibited a clinical pattern significantly different from that of community-acquired IE. S. aureus as the causal agent of IE was the most important factor associated with in-hospital death in community-acquired IE (hazard ratio [HR], 2.82 [95% CI, 1.72-4.61]) and the single factor in healthcare-associated IE (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.33-4.85]). S. aureus became both the leading cause and the most important prognostic factor of IE, and healthcare-associated IE appeared as a major subgroup of the disease.

The natural history of substance use disorders.

PubMed

Sarvet, Aaron L; Hasin, Deborah

2016-07-01

Illicit drugs, alcohol, and tobacco use disorders contribute substantially to the global burden of disease. Knowledge about the major elements of the natural history of substance use disorders (incidence, remission, persistence, and relapse) is crucial to a broader understanding of the course and outcomes of substance use disorders. Prospective cohort studies in nonclinical samples indicate that externalizing psychopathology in earlier life, including early disordered substance use, delinquency, and personality disorders, are related to substance use disorders later in life and chronic course. Externalizing psychopathology may be initiated by early adverse experiences, for example, childhood maltreatment and stressful life events. After controlling for confounders, 'age at first use' as a causal factor for alcohol use disorder later in life and the 'drug substitution' hypothesis are not supported in general population data. Future research should focus on elaborating the causal framework that leads to the development and persistence of severe substance use disorders, with an emphasis on identifying modifiable factors for intervention by policy makers or health professionals. More research is needed on the natural history of substance use disorders in low-income and middle-income countries.

Combining human and machine intelligence to derive agents' behavioral rules for groundwater irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Yao; Quinn, Christopher J.; Cai, Ximing; Garfinkle, Noah W.

2017-11-01

For agent-based modeling, the major challenges in deriving agents' behavioral rules arise from agents' bounded rationality and data scarcity. This study proposes a "gray box" approach to address the challenge by incorporating expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) with machine learning techniques (i.e., machine intelligence). Specifically, we propose using directed information graph (DIG), boosted regression trees (BRT), and domain knowledge to infer causal factors and identify behavioral rules from data. A case study is conducted to investigate farmers' pumping behavior in the Midwest, U.S.A. Results show that four factors identified by the DIG algorithm- corn price, underlying groundwater level, monthly mean temperature and precipitation- have main causal influences on agents' decisions on monthly groundwater irrigation depth. The agent-based model is then developed based on the behavioral rules represented by three DIGs and modeled by BRTs, and coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the impacts of agents' pumping behavior on the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and environmental systems.

Aristotle and Information Theory: A Comparison of the Influence of Causal Assumptions on Two Theories of Communication. (Janua Linguarum Series Maior 35.)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosenfield, Lawrence William

This study sought to discover what critical apparatus would be most appropriate for observers of verbal discourse who choose to accept Aristotelian or "information theory" causal accounts of dynamic process. The major conclusions were: (1) Both causal systems employ a static grid to express relationships; but while the Aristotelian relations are…

Why cachexia kills: examining the causality of poor outcomes in wasting conditions.

PubMed

Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar; Rhee, Connie; Sim, John J; Stenvinkel, Peter; Anker, Stefan D; Kovesdy, Csaba P

2013-06-01

Weight loss is the hallmark of any progressive acute or chronic disease state. In its extreme form of significant lean body mass (including skeletal muscle) and fat loss, it is referred to as cachexia. It has been known for millennia that muscle and fat wasting leads to poor outcomes including death. On one hand, conditions and risk factors that lead to cachexia and inadequate nutrition may independently lead to increased mortality. Additionaly, cachexia per se, withdrawal of nutritional support in progressive cachexia, and advanced age may lead to death via cachexia-specific pathways. Despite the strong and consistent association of cachexia with mortality, no unifying mechanism has yet been suggested as to why wasting conditions are associated with an exceptionally high mortality risk. Hence, the causality of the cachexia-death association, even though it is biologically plausible, is widely unknown. This century-long uncertainty may have played a role as to why the field of cachexia treatment development has not shown major advances over the past decades. We suggest that cachexia-associated relative thrombocytosis and platelet activation may play a causal role in cachexia-related death, while other mechanisms may also contribute including arrhythmia-associated sudden deaths, endocrine disorders such as hypothyroidism, and immune system compromise leading to infectious events and deaths. Multidimensional research including examining biologically plausible models is urgently needed to investigate the causality of the cachexia-death association.

In defense of causal-formative indicators: A minority report.

PubMed

Bollen, Kenneth A; Diamantopoulos, Adamantios

2017-09-01

Causal-formative indicators directly affect their corresponding latent variable. They run counter to the predominant view that indicators depend on latent variables and are thus often controversial. If present, such indicators have serious implications for factor analysis, reliability theory, item response theory, structural equation models, and most measurement approaches that are based on reflective or effect indicators. Psychological Methods has published a number of influential articles on causal and formative indicators as well as launching the first major backlash against them. This article examines 7 common criticisms of these indicators distilled from the literature: (a) A construct measured with "formative" indicators does not exist independently of its indicators; (b) Such indicators are causes rather than measures; (c) They imply multiple dimensions to a construct and this is a liability; (d) They are assumed to be error-free, which is unrealistic; (e) They are inherently subject to interpretational confounding; (f) They fail proportionality constraints; and (g) Their coefficients should be set in advance and not estimated. We summarize each of these criticisms and point out the flaws in the logic and evidence marshaled in their support. The most common problems are not distinguishing between what we call causal-formative and composite-formative indicators, tautological fallacies, and highlighting issues that are common to all indicators, but presenting them as special problems of causal-formative indicators. We conclude that measurement theory needs (a) to incorporate these types of indicators, and (b) to better understand their similarities to and differences from traditional indicators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Major psychological factors affecting acceptance of gene-recombination technology.

PubMed

Tanaka, Yutaka

2004-12-01

The purpose of this study was to verify the validity of a causal model that was made to predict the acceptance of gene-recombination technology. A structural equation model was used as a causal model. First of all, based on preceding studies, the factors of perceived risk, perceived benefit, and trust were set up as important psychological factors determining acceptance of gene-recombination technology in the structural equation model. An additional factor, "sense of bioethics," which I consider to be important for acceptance of biotechnology, was added to the model. Based on previous studies, trust was set up to have an indirect influence on the acceptance of gene-recombination technology through perceived risk and perceived benefit in the model. Participants were 231 undergraduate students in Japan who answered a questionnaire with a 5-point bipolar scale. The results indicated that the proposed model fits the data well, and showed that acceptance of gene-recombination technology is explained largely by four factors, that is, perceived risk, perceived benefit, trust, and sense of bioethics, whether the technology is applied to plants, animals, or human beings. However, the relative importance of the four factors was found to vary depending on whether the gene-recombination technology was applied to plants, animals, or human beings. Specifically, the factor of sense of bioethics is the most important factor in acceptance of plant gene-recombination technology and animal gene-recombination technology, and the factors of trust and perceived risk are the most important factors in acceptance of human being gene-recombination technology.

When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed

Verbeek, Jos

2012-06-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely.

When Work is Related to Disease, What Establishes Evidence for a Causal Relation?

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Establishing a causal relationship between factors at work and disease is difficult for occupational physicians and researchers. This paper seeks to provide arguments for the judgement of evidence of causality in observational studies that relate work factors to disease. I derived criteria for the judgement of evidence of causality from the following sources: the criteria list of Hill, the approach by Rothman, the methods used by International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and methods used by epidemiologists. The criteria are applied to two cases of putative occupational diseases; breast cancer caused by shift work and aerotoxic syndrome. Only three of the Hill criteria can be applied to an actual study. Rothman stresses the importance of confounding and alternative explanations than the putative cause. IARC closely follows Hill, but they also incorporate other than epidemiological evidence. Applied to shift work and breast cancer, these results have found moderate evidence for a causal relationship, but applied to the aerotoxic syndrome, there is an absence of evidence of causality. There are no ready to use algorithms for judgement of evidence of causality. Criteria from different sources lead to similar results and can make a conclusion of causality more or less likely. PMID:22993715

What Women Think: Cancer Causal Attributions in a Diverse Sample of Women

PubMed Central

Rodríguez, Vivian M.; Gyure, Maria E.; Corona, Rosalie; Bodurtha, Joann N.; Bowen, Deborah J.; Quillin, John M.

2014-01-01

Women hold diverse beliefs about cancer etiology, potentially affecting their use of cancer preventive behaviors. To date, research has greatly focused on the causal attributions cancer patients and survivors hold about cancer, and studies have been conducted primarily with White participants. Less is known about causal attributions held by women with and without a family history of cancer from a diverse community sample. This study sought to identify cancer causal attributions of women with and without a family history of cancer, and explore its relation to socio-cultural factors. Diverse women (60% African-American) recruited at an urban, safety-net women's health clinic (N=471) reported factors they believed cause cancer. Responses were coded into nine attributions and analyzed using chi-squares and logistic regressions. Lifestyle-choices (63%), genetics/heredity (34%), and environmental-exposures (19%) were the top causal attributions identified. Women without a family history of cancer were more likely to identify genetics/heredity as an attribution for cancer than women with a history of cancer in their families. Women who identified as White, who had a higher educational attainment, and had commercial insurance were more likely to report genetics/heredity as a causal attribution for cancer. These findings suggest that socio-cultural factors may play a role in the causal attributions individuals make about cancer, which can, in turn, inform cancer awareness and prevention messages. PMID:25398057

Multivariate Granger causality: an estimation framework based on factorization of the spectral density matrix

PubMed Central

Wen, Xiaotong; Rangarajan, Govindan; Ding, Mingzhou

2013-01-01

Granger causality is increasingly being applied to multi-electrode neurophysiological and functional imaging data to characterize directional interactions between neurons and brain regions. For a multivariate dataset, one might be interested in different subsets of the recorded neurons or brain regions. According to the current estimation framework, for each subset, one conducts a separate autoregressive model fitting process, introducing the potential for unwanted variability and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality. It is based on spectral density matrix factorization and offers the advantage that the estimation of such a matrix needs to be done only once for the entire multivariate dataset. For any subset of recorded data, Granger causality can be calculated through factorizing the appropriate submatrix of the overall spectral density matrix. PMID:23858479

Reshaping the Sword and Chrysanthemum: Regional Implications of Expanding the Mission of the Japan Self Defense Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-03-01

I could not have achieved the level success that I have without her. Finally, I would like to thank our little girl , for waiting until after this...MAJOR QUESTIONS AND ARGUMENTS This thesis investigates causal factors in determining how the changing mission of the JSDF affects the regional...to not only understand the changes called for in these documents, but also how the implementation has been carried out as perceptions can change

When a checklist is not enough: How to improve them and what else is needed.

PubMed

Raman, Jaishankar; Leveson, Nancy; Samost, Aubrey Lynn; Dobrilovic, Nikola; Oldham, Maggie; Dekker, Sidney; Finkelstein, Stan

2016-08-01

Checklists are being introduced to enhance patient safety, but the results have been mixed. The goal of this research is to understand why time-outs and checklists are sometimes not effective in preventing surgical adverse events and to identify additional measures needed to reduce these events. A total of 380 consecutive patients underwent complex cardiac surgery over a 24-month period between November 2011 and November 2013 at an academic medical center, out of a total of 529 cardiac cases. Elective isolated aortic valve replacements, mitral valve repairs, and coronary artery bypass graft surgical procedures (N = 149) were excluded. A time-out was conducted in a standard fashion in all patients in accordance with the World Health Organization surgical checklist protocol. Adverse events were classified as anything that resulted in an operative delay, nonavailability of equipment, failure of drug administration, or unexpected adverse clinical outcome. These events and their details were collected every week and analyzed using a systemic causal analysis technique using a technique called CAST (causal analysis based on systems theory). This analytic technique evaluated the sociotechnical system to identify the set of causal factors involved in the adverse events and the causal factors explored to identify reasons. Recommendations were made for the improvement of checklists and the use of system design changes that could prevent such events in the future. Thirty events were identified. The causal analysis of these 30 adverse events was carried out and actionable events classified. There were important limitations in the use of standard checklists as a stand-alone patient safety measure in the operating room setting, because of multiple factors. Major categories included miscommunication between staff, medication errors, missing instrumentation, missing implants, and improper handling of equipment or instruments. An average of 3.9 recommendations were generated for each adverse event scenario. Time-outs and checklists can prevent some types of adverse events, but they need to be carefully designed. Additional interventions aimed at improving safety controls in the system design are needed to augment the use of checklists. Customization of checklists for specialized surgical procedures may reduce adverse events. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Property transmission: an explanatory account of the role of similarity information in causal inference.

PubMed

White, Peter A

2009-09-01

Many kinds of common and easily observed causal relations exhibit property transmission, which is a tendency for the causal object to impose its own properties on the effect object. It is proposed that property transmission becomes a general and readily available hypothesis used to make interpretations and judgments about causal questions under conditions of uncertainty, in which property transmission functions as a heuristic. The property transmission hypothesis explains why and when similarity information is used in causal inference. It can account for magical contagion beliefs, some cases of illusory correlation, the correspondence bias, overestimation of cross-situational consistency in behavior, nonregressive tendencies in prediction, the belief that acts of will are causes of behavior, and a range of other phenomena. People learn that property transmission is often moderated by other factors, but under conditions of uncertainty in which the operation of relevant other factors is unknown, it tends to exhibit a pervasive influence on thinking about causality. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Role of visceral adipose tissue in aging.

PubMed

Huffman, Derek M; Barzilai, Nir

2009-10-01

Visceral fat (VF) accretion is a hallmark of aging in humans. Epidemiologic studies have implicated abdominal obesity as a major risk factor for insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, metabolic syndrome and death. Studies utilizing novel rodent models of visceral obesity and surgical strategies in humans have been undertaken to determine if subcutaneous (SC) abdominal or VF are causally linked to age-related diseases. Specific depletion or expansion of the VF depot using genetic or surgical tools in rodents has been shown to have direct effects on disease risk. In contrast, surgically removing large quantities of SC fat does not consistently improve metabolic parameters in humans or rodents, while benefits were observed with SC fat expansion in mice, suggesting that SC fat accrual is not an important contributor to metabolic decline. There is also compelling evidence in humans that abdominal obesity is a stronger risk factor for mortality risk than general obesity. Likewise, we have shown that surgical removal of VF improves mean and maximum lifespan in rats, providing the first causal evidence that VF depletion may be an important underlying cause of improved lifespan with caloric restriction. This review provides both corollary and causal evidence for the importance of accounting for body fat distribution, and specifically VF, when assessing disease and mortality risk. Given the hazards of VF accumulation on health, treatment strategies aimed at selectively depleting VF should be considered as a viable tool to effectively reduce disease risk in humans.

Correlation of causal factors that influence construction safety performance: A model.

PubMed

Rodrigues, F; Coutinho, A; Cardoso, C

2015-01-01

The construction sector has presented positive development regarding the decrease in occupational accident rates in recent years. Regardless, the construction sector stands out systematically from other industries due to its high number of fatalities. The aim of this paper is to deeply understand the causality of construction accidents from the early design phase through a model. This study reviewed several research papers presenting various analytical models that correlate the contributing factors to occupational accidents in this sector. This study also analysed different construction projects and conducted a survey of design and site supervision teams. This paper proposes a model developed from the analysis of existing ones, which correlates the causal factors through all the construction phases. It was concluded that effective risk prevention can only be achieved by a global correlation of causal factors including not only production ones but also client requirements, financial climate, design team competence, project and risk management, financial capacity, health and safety policy and early planning. Accordingly, a model is proposed.

Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

PubMed

Tzeremes, Panayiotis

2018-02-01

This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.

Supporting shared hypothesis testing in the biomedical domain.

PubMed

Agibetov, Asan; Jiménez-Ruiz, Ernesto; Ondrésik, Marta; Solimando, Alessandro; Banerjee, Imon; Guerrini, Giovanna; Catalano, Chiara E; Oliveira, Joaquim M; Patanè, Giuseppe; Reis, Rui L; Spagnuolo, Michela

2018-02-08

Pathogenesis of inflammatory diseases can be tracked by studying the causality relationships among the factors contributing to its development. We could, for instance, hypothesize on the connections of the pathogenesis outcomes to the observed conditions. And to prove such causal hypotheses we would need to have the full understanding of the causal relationships, and we would have to provide all the necessary evidences to support our claims. In practice, however, we might not possess all the background knowledge on the causality relationships, and we might be unable to collect all the evidence to prove our hypotheses. In this work we propose a methodology for the translation of biological knowledge on causality relationships of biological processes and their effects on conditions to a computational framework for hypothesis testing. The methodology consists of two main points: hypothesis graph construction from the formalization of the background knowledge on causality relationships, and confidence measurement in a causality hypothesis as a normalized weighted path computation in the hypothesis graph. In this framework, we can simulate collection of evidences and assess confidence in a causality hypothesis by measuring it proportionally to the amount of available knowledge and collected evidences. We evaluate our methodology on a hypothesis graph that represents both contributing factors which may cause cartilage degradation and the factors which might be caused by the cartilage degradation during osteoarthritis. Hypothesis graph construction has proven to be robust to the addition of potentially contradictory information on the simultaneously positive and negative effects. The obtained confidence measures for the specific causality hypotheses have been validated by our domain experts, and, correspond closely to their subjective assessments of confidences in investigated hypotheses. Overall, our methodology for a shared hypothesis testing framework exhibits important properties that researchers will find useful in literature review for their experimental studies, planning and prioritizing evidence collection acquisition procedures, and testing their hypotheses with different depths of knowledge on causal dependencies of biological processes and their effects on the observed conditions.

Cannabis and psychosis: what is the link?

PubMed

Ben Amar, Mohamed; Potvin, Stéphane

2007-06-01

Growing evidence supports the hypothesis that cannabis consumption is a risk factor for the development of psychotic symptoms. Nonetheless, controversy remains about the causal nature of the association. This review takes the debate further through a critical appraisal of the evidence. An electronic search was performed, allowing to identify 622 studies published until June 1st 2005. Longitudinal studies and literature reviews were selected if they addressed specifically the issues of the cannabis/psychosis relationship or possible mechanisms involved. Ten epidemiological studies were relevant: three supported a causal relationship between cannabis use and diagnosed psychosis; five suggested that chronic cannabis intake increases the frequency of psychotic symptoms, but not of diagnosed psychosis; and two showed no causal relationship. Potential neurobiological mechanisms were also identified, involving dopamine, endocannabinoids, and brain growth factors. Although there is evidence that cannabis use increases the risk of developing psychotic symptoms, the causal nature of this association remains unclear. Contributing factors include heavy consumption, length and early age of exposure, and psychotic vulnerability. This conclusion should be mitigated by uncertainty arising from cannabis use assessment, psychosis measurement, reverse causality and control of residual confounding.

Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, Samuel E.; Salvucci, Guido D.

2017-07-01

Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data.

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-20

Granger causality F-test validation 3.1.2. Dynamic time warping for uneven temporal relationships Many causal relationships are imperfectly...mapping for dynamic feedback models Granger causality and DTW can identify causal relationships and consider complex temporal factors. However, many ...variant of the tf-idf algorithm (Manning, Raghavan, Schutze et al., 2008), typically used in search engines, to “score” features. The (-log tf) in

Age- and Sex-Specific Causal Effects of Adiposity on Cardiovascular Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H.M.; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P.; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S.; de Bruijn, Renée F.A.G.; Willems, Sara M.; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H.; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G.; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S.; Moreno, Luis A.; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W.G.; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H.; van Duijn, Cornelia M.; Ikram, M. Arfan; Franco, Oscar H.; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S.; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Whitfield, John B.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D.; Magnusson, Patrik K.; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Nilsson, Peter M.; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L.; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I.

2015-01-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10−107) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10−30). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. PMID:25712996

Genome-wide association analyses identify 44 risk variants and refine the genetic architecture of major depression.

PubMed

Wray, Naomi R; Ripke, Stephan; Mattheisen, Manuel; Trzaskowski, Maciej; Byrne, Enda M; Abdellaoui, Abdel; Adams, Mark J; Agerbo, Esben; Air, Tracy M; Andlauer, Till M F; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin; Bækvad-Hansen, Marie; Beekman, Aartjan F T; Bigdeli, Tim B; Binder, Elisabeth B; Blackwood, Douglas R H; Bryois, Julien; Buttenschøn, Henriette N; Bybjerg-Grauholm, Jonas; Cai, Na; Castelao, Enrique; Christensen, Jane Hvarregaard; Clarke, Toni-Kim; Coleman, Jonathan I R; Colodro-Conde, Lucía; Couvy-Duchesne, Baptiste; Craddock, Nick; Crawford, Gregory E; Crowley, Cheynna A; Dashti, Hassan S; Davies, Gail; Deary, Ian J; Degenhardt, Franziska; Derks, Eske M; Direk, Nese; Dolan, Conor V; Dunn, Erin C; Eley, Thalia C; Eriksson, Nicholas; Escott-Price, Valentina; Kiadeh, Farnush Hassan Farhadi; Finucane, Hilary K; Forstner, Andreas J; Frank, Josef; Gaspar, Héléna A; Gill, Michael; Giusti-Rodríguez, Paola; Goes, Fernando S; Gordon, Scott D; Grove, Jakob; Hall, Lynsey S; Hannon, Eilis; Hansen, Christine Søholm; Hansen, Thomas F; Herms, Stefan; Hickie, Ian B; Hoffmann, Per; Homuth, Georg; Horn, Carsten; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Hougaard, David M; Hu, Ming; Hyde, Craig L; Ising, Marcus; Jansen, Rick; Jin, Fulai; Jorgenson, Eric; Knowles, James A; Kohane, Isaac S; Kraft, Julia; Kretzschmar, Warren W; Krogh, Jesper; Kutalik, Zoltán; Lane, Jacqueline M; Li, Yihan; Li, Yun; Lind, Penelope A; Liu, Xiaoxiao; Lu, Leina; MacIntyre, Donald J; MacKinnon, Dean F; Maier, Robert M; Maier, Wolfgang; Marchini, Jonathan; Mbarek, Hamdi; McGrath, Patrick; McGuffin, Peter; Medland, Sarah E; Mehta, Divya; Middeldorp, Christel M; Mihailov, Evelin; Milaneschi, Yuri; Milani, Lili; Mill, Jonathan; Mondimore, Francis M; Montgomery, Grant W; Mostafavi, Sara; Mullins, Niamh; Nauck, Matthias; Ng, Bernard; Nivard, Michel G; Nyholt, Dale R; O'Reilly, Paul F; Oskarsson, Hogni; Owen, Michael J; Painter, Jodie N; Pedersen, Carsten Bøcker; Pedersen, Marianne Giørtz; Peterson, Roseann E; Pettersson, Erik; Peyrot, Wouter J; Pistis, Giorgio; Posthuma, Danielle; Purcell, Shaun M; Quiroz, Jorge A; Qvist, Per; Rice, John P; Riley, Brien P; Rivera, Margarita; Saeed Mirza, Saira; Saxena, Richa; Schoevers, Robert; Schulte, Eva C; Shen, Ling; Shi, Jianxin; Shyn, Stanley I; Sigurdsson, Engilbert; Sinnamon, Grant B C; Smit, Johannes H; Smith, Daniel J; Stefansson, Hreinn; Steinberg, Stacy; Stockmeier, Craig A; Streit, Fabian; Strohmaier, Jana; Tansey, Katherine E; Teismann, Henning; Teumer, Alexander; Thompson, Wesley; Thomson, Pippa A; Thorgeirsson, Thorgeir E; Tian, Chao; Traylor, Matthew; Treutlein, Jens; Trubetskoy, Vassily; Uitterlinden, André G; Umbricht, Daniel; Van der Auwera, Sandra; van Hemert, Albert M; Viktorin, Alexander; Visscher, Peter M; Wang, Yunpeng; Webb, Bradley T; Weinsheimer, Shantel Marie; Wellmann, Jürgen; Willemsen, Gonneke; Witt, Stephanie H; Wu, Yang; Xi, Hualin S; Yang, Jian; Zhang, Futao; Arolt, Volker; Baune, Bernhard T; Berger, Klaus; Boomsma, Dorret I; Cichon, Sven; Dannlowski, Udo; de Geus, E C J; DePaulo, J Raymond; Domenici, Enrico; Domschke, Katharina; Esko, Tõnu; Grabe, Hans J; Hamilton, Steven P; Hayward, Caroline; Heath, Andrew C; Hinds, David A; Kendler, Kenneth S; Kloiber, Stefan; Lewis, Glyn; Li, Qingqin S; Lucae, Susanne; Madden, Pamela F A; Magnusson, Patrik K; Martin, Nicholas G; McIntosh, Andrew M; Metspalu, Andres; Mors, Ole; Mortensen, Preben Bo; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Nordentoft, Merete; Nöthen, Markus M; O'Donovan, Michael C; Paciga, Sara A; Pedersen, Nancy L; Penninx, Brenda W J H; Perlis, Roy H; Porteous, David J; Potash, James B; Preisig, Martin; Rietschel, Marcella; Schaefer, Catherine; Schulze, Thomas G; Smoller, Jordan W; Stefansson, Kari; Tiemeier, Henning; Uher, Rudolf; Völzke, Henry; Weissman, Myrna M; Werge, Thomas; Winslow, Ashley R; Lewis, Cathryn M; Levinson, Douglas F; Breen, Gerome; Børglum, Anders D; Sullivan, Patrick F

2018-05-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a common illness accompanied by considerable morbidity, mortality, costs, and heightened risk of suicide. We conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis based in 135,458 cases and 344,901 controls and identified 44 independent and significant loci. The genetic findings were associated with clinical features of major depression and implicated brain regions exhibiting anatomical differences in cases. Targets of antidepressant medications and genes involved in gene splicing were enriched for smaller association signal. We found important relationships of genetic risk for major depression with educational attainment, body mass, and schizophrenia: lower educational attainment and higher body mass were putatively causal, whereas major depression and schizophrenia reflected a partly shared biological etiology. All humans carry lesser or greater numbers of genetic risk factors for major depression. These findings help refine the basis of major depression and imply that a continuous measure of risk underlies the clinical phenotype.

The Singaporean public beliefs about the causes of mental illness: results from a multi-ethnic population-based study.

PubMed

Pang, S; Subramaniam, M; Lee, S P; Lau, Y W; Abdin, E; Chua, B Y; Picco, L; Vaingankar, J A; Chong, S A

2017-04-03

To identify the common causal beliefs of mental illness in a multi-ethnic Southeast Asian community and describe the sociodemographic associations to said beliefs. The factor structure to the causal beliefs scale is explored. The causal beliefs relating to five different mental illnesses (alcohol abuse, depression, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), dementia and schizophrenia) and desire for social distance are also investigated. Data from 3006 participants from a nationwide vignette-based study on mental health literacy were analysed using factor analysis and multiple logistic regression to address the aims. Participants answered questions related to sociodemographic information, causal beliefs of mental illness and their desire for social distance towards those with mental illness. Physical causes, psychosocial causes and personality causes were endorsed by the sample. Sociodemographic differences including ethnic, gender and age differences in causal beliefs were found in the sample. Differences in causal beliefs were shown across different mental illness vignettes though psychosocial causes was the most highly attributed cause across vignettes (endorsed by 97.9% of respondents), followed by personality causes (83.5%) and last, physical causes (37%). Physical causes were more likely to be endorsed for OCD, depression and schizophrenia. Psychosocial causes were less often endorsed for OCD. Personality causes were less endorsed for dementia but more associated with depression. The factor structure of the causal beliefs scale is not entirely the same as that found in previous research. Further research on the causal beliefs endorsed by Southeast Asian communities should be conducted to investigate other potential causes such as biogenetic factors and spiritual/supernatural causes. Mental health awareness campaigns should address causes of mental illness as a topic. Lay beliefs in the different causes must be acknowledged and it would be beneficial for the public to be informed of the causes of some of the most common mental illnesses in order to encourage help-seeking and treatment compliance.

Causal Inference and Developmental Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, E. Michael

2010-01-01

Causal inference is of central importance to developmental psychology. Many key questions in the field revolve around improving the lives of children and their families. These include identifying risk factors that if manipulated in some way would foster child development. Such a task inherently involves causal inference: One wants to know whether…

Tumors of the skin and soft tissues

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weller, R.E.

1991-10-01

The majority of the body surface is covered by the skin. Many internal disorders are reflected in the condition of the skin. One of the major functions of the skin is protection of the other organ systems from a variety of environmental insults. In this role, the skin itself is exposed to factors that can ultimately cause chronic diseases and cancer. Since it is relatively easy to recognize skin abnormalities, most skin cancers are brought to professional attention sooner than other types of cancer. However, due to the close resemblance between many skin neoplasms and noncancerous dermatologic disorders, these neoplasmsmore » may be mistreated for months or even years. In veterinary oncology, as in human medicine, most cancers can be effectively treated or cured following an accurate diagnosis. Once diagnosed, skin neoplasms should be aggressively treated. If causal factors are known, exposure to these factors should be limited through removal of the agent (for chemical carcinogens) or limiting exposure to the agent (for other carcinogens such as sunlight). 10 tabs. (MHB)« less

Evaluation of crash rates and causal factors for high-risk locations on rural and urban two-lane highways in Virginia.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Considerable efforts have been made in recent years to make highway travel safer. Traffic engineers continue to emphasize the identification of causal factors for crashes on individual sections and on different functional classes of highways as an ar...

Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: Using the children-of-twins design to test causal hypotheses

PubMed Central

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D’Onofrio, Brian M

2013-01-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behaviour. It is not clear if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children-of-siblings and children-of-twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant MZ twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association. PMID:23398750

Maternal age at first birth and offspring criminality: using the children of twins design to test causal hypotheses.

PubMed

Coyne, Claire A; Långström, Niklas; Rickert, Martin E; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2013-02-01

Teenage childbirth is a risk factor for poor offspring outcomes, particularly offspring antisocial behavior. It is not clear, however, if maternal age at first birth (MAFB) is causally associated with offspring antisocial behavior or if this association is due to selection factors that influence both the likelihood that a young woman gives birth early and that her offspring engage in antisocial behavior. The current study addresses the limitations of previous research by using longitudinal data from Swedish national registries and children of siblings and children of twins comparisons to identify the extent to which the association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions is consistent with a causal influence and confounded by genetic or environmental factors that make cousins similar. We found offspring born to mothers who began childbearing earlier were more likely to be convicted of a crime than offspring born to mothers who delayed childbearing. The results from comparisons of differentially exposed cousins, especially born to discordant monozygotic twin sisters, provide support for a causal association between MAFB and offspring criminal convictions. The analyses also found little evidence for genetic confounding due to passive gene-environment correlation. Future studies are needed to replicate these findings and to identify environmental risk factors that mediate this causal association.

Strategic approaches to unraveling genetic causes of cardiovascular diseases

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

DNA sequence variants are major components of the "causal field" for virtually all medical phenotypes, whether single gene familial disorders or complex traits without a clear familial aggregation. The causal variants in single gene disorders are necessary and sufficient to impart large effects. In ...

Epidemiology of Foot and Mouth Disease in Ethiopia: a Retrospective Analysis of District Level Outbreaks, 2007-2012.

PubMed

Jemberu, W T; Mourits, M C M; Sahle, M; Siraw, B; Vernooij, J C M; Hogeveen, H

2016-12-01

This study aimed at determining the incidence, distribution, risk factors, and causal serotypes of foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in Ethiopia based on 5 years of retrospective outbreak data (September 2007 until August 2012). District level outbreak data were collected from 115 randomly selected districts using a questionnaire administered to district animal health officers. The national incidence of FMD outbreaks during the study period was 1.45 outbreaks per five district years. Outbreaks were geographically widespread affecting all major regional states in the country and were more frequent in the central, southern, and southeastern parts of the country. Neither long-term nor seasonal trends were observed in the incidence of outbreaks. A mixed effects logistic regression analysis revealed that the type of production system (market oriented system versus subsistence systems), presence of a major livestock market and/or route, and adjacency to a national parks or wildlife sanctuary were found to be associated with increased risk of outbreaks in the districts. FMD virus serotypes O, A, SAT 2, and SAT 1 were identified as the causal serotypes of the outbreaks during the study period. Whereas O was the dominant serotype, SAT 2 was the serotype that showed increase in relative frequency of occurrence. The estimated incidence of outbreaks is useful in assessing the economic impacts of the disease, and the identified risk factors provide important knowledge to target a progressive FMD control policy for Ethiopia. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Education and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation study.

PubMed

Tillmann, Taavi; Vaucher, Julien; Okbay, Aysu; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Fischer, Krista; Veronesi, Giovanni; Palmer, Tom; Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George; Bobak, Martin; Holmes, Michael V

2017-08-30

Objective  To determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Design  Mendelian randomisation study, using genetic data as proxies for education to minimise confounding. Setting  The main analysis used genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), comprising 112 studies from predominantly high income countries. Findings from mendelian randomisation analyses were then compared against results from traditional observational studies (164 170 participants). Finally, genetic data from six additional consortia were analysed to investigate whether longer education can causally alter the common cardiovascular risk factors. Participants  The main analysis was of 543 733 men and women (from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), predominantly of European origin. Exposure  A one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (3.6 years of additional schooling), measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education. Main outcome measure  Combined fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). Results  Genetic predisposition towards 3.6 years of additional education was associated with a one third lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.77; P=3×10 -8 ). This was comparable to findings from traditional observational studies (prevalence odds ratio 0.73, 0.68 to 0.78; incidence odds ratio 0.80, 0.76 to 0.83). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with a causal interpretation in which major bias from genetic pleiotropy was unlikely, although this remains an untestable possibility. Genetic predisposition towards longer education was additionally associated with less smoking, lower body mass index, and a favourable blood lipid profile. Conclusions  This mendelian randomisation study found support for the hypothesis that low education is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Potential mechanisms could include smoking, body mass index, and blood lipids. In conjunction with the results from studies with other designs, these findings suggest that increasing education may result in substantial health benefits.

Education and coronary heart disease: mendelian randomisation study

PubMed Central

Vaucher, Julien; Okbay, Aysu; Pikhart, Hynek; Peasey, Anne; Kubinova, Ruzena; Pajak, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Malyutina, Sofia; Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Fischer, Krista; Veronesi, Giovanni; Palmer, Tom; Bowden, Jack; Davey Smith, George; Bobak, Martin; Holmes, Michael V

2017-01-01

Objective To determine whether educational attainment is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Design Mendelian randomisation study, using genetic data as proxies for education to minimise confounding. Setting The main analysis used genetic data from two large consortia (CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), comprising 112 studies from predominantly high income countries. Findings from mendelian randomisation analyses were then compared against results from traditional observational studies (164 170 participants). Finally, genetic data from six additional consortia were analysed to investigate whether longer education can causally alter the common cardiovascular risk factors. Participants The main analysis was of 543 733 men and women (from CARDIoGRAMplusC4D and SSGAC), predominantly of European origin. Exposure A one standard deviation increase in the genetic predisposition towards higher education (3.6 years of additional schooling), measured by 162 genetic variants that have been previously associated with education. Main outcome measure Combined fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease (63 746 events in CARDIoGRAMplusC4D). Results Genetic predisposition towards 3.6 years of additional education was associated with a one third lower risk of coronary heart disease (odds ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.59 to 0.77; P=3×10−8). This was comparable to findings from traditional observational studies (prevalence odds ratio 0.73, 0.68 to 0.78; incidence odds ratio 0.80, 0.76 to 0.83). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with a causal interpretation in which major bias from genetic pleiotropy was unlikely, although this remains an untestable possibility. Genetic predisposition towards longer education was additionally associated with less smoking, lower body mass index, and a favourable blood lipid profile. Conclusions This mendelian randomisation study found support for the hypothesis that low education is a causal risk factor in the development of coronary heart disease. Potential mechanisms could include smoking, body mass index, and blood lipids. In conjunction with the results from studies with other designs, these findings suggest that increasing education may result in substantial health benefits. PMID:28855160

Effect of Causal Stories in Solving Mathematical Story Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Glenn Gordon; Gerretson, Helen; Olkun, Sinan; Joutsenlahti, Jorma

2010-01-01

This study investigated whether infusing "causal" story elements into mathematical word problems improves student performance. In one experiment in the USA and a second in USA, Finland and Turkey, undergraduate elementary education majors worked word problems in three formats: 1) standard (minimal verbiage), 2) potential causation…

A Kernel Embedding-Based Approach for Nonstationary Causal Model Inference.

PubMed

Hu, Shoubo; Chen, Zhitang; Chan, Laiwan

2018-05-01

Although nonstationary data are more common in the real world, most existing causal discovery methods do not take nonstationarity into consideration. In this letter, we propose a kernel embedding-based approach, ENCI, for nonstationary causal model inference where data are collected from multiple domains with varying distributions. In ENCI, we transform the complicated relation of a cause-effect pair into a linear model of variables of which observations correspond to the kernel embeddings of the cause-and-effect distributions in different domains. In this way, we are able to estimate the causal direction by exploiting the causal asymmetry of the transformed linear model. Furthermore, we extend ENCI to causal graph discovery for multiple variables by transforming the relations among them into a linear nongaussian acyclic model. We show that by exploiting the nonstationarity of distributions, both cause-effect pairs and two kinds of causal graphs are identifiable under mild conditions. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data are conducted to justify the efficacy of ENCI over major existing methods.

Does Causality Matter More Now? Increase in the Proportion of Causal Language in English Texts.

PubMed

Iliev, Rumen; Axelrod, Robert

2016-05-01

The vast majority of the work on culture and cognition has focused on cross-cultural comparisons, largely ignoring the dynamic aspects of culture. In this article, we provide a diachronic analysis of causal cognition over time. We hypothesized that the increased role of education, science, and technology in Western societies should be accompanied by greater attention to causal connections. To test this hypothesis, we compared word frequencies in English texts from different time periods and found an increase in the use of causal language of about 40% over the past two centuries. The observed increase was not attributable to general language effects or to changing semantics of causal words. We also found that there was a consistent difference between the 19th and the 20th centuries, and that the increase happened mainly in the 20th century. © The Author(s) 2016.

Causal inference between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors in a large-scale region.

PubMed

Liu, Yuqiong; Du, Qingyun; Wang, Qi; Yu, Huanyun; Liu, Jianfeng; Tian, Yu; Chang, Chunying; Lei, Jing

2017-07-01

The causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors are generally obtained from field experiments at local scales at present, and lack sufficient evidence from large scales. However, inferring causation between bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions is challenging. Because the conventional correlation-based approaches used for causation assessments across large-scale regions, at the expense of actual causation, can result in spurious insights. In this study, a general approach framework, Intervention calculus when the directed acyclic graph (DAG) is absent (IDA) combined with the backdoor criterion (BC), was introduced to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and the potential environmental factors across large-scale regions. We take the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China as a case study. The causal structures and effects were identified based on the concentrations of heavy metals (Zn, As, Cu, Hg, Pb, Cr, Ni and Cd) in soil (0-20 cm depth) and vegetable (lettuce) and 40 environmental factors (soil properties, extractable heavy metals and weathering indices) in 94 samples across the PRD. Results show that the bioavailability of heavy metals (Cd, Zn, Cr, Ni and As) was causally influenced by soil properties and soil weathering factors, whereas no causal factor impacted the bioavailability of Cu, Hg and Pb. No latent factor was found between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors. The causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors at field experiments is consistent with that on a large scale. The IDA combined with the BC provides a powerful tool to identify causation between the bioavailability of heavy metals and environmental factors across large-scale regions. Causal inference in a large system with the dynamic changes has great implications for system-based risk management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Causal reports: Context-dependent contributions of intuitive physics and visual impressions of launching.

PubMed

Vicovaro, Michele

2018-05-01

Everyday causal reports appear to be based on a blend of perceptual and cognitive processes. Causality can sometimes be perceived automatically through low-level visual processing of stimuli, but it can also be inferred on the basis of an intuitive understanding of the physical mechanism that underlies an observable event. We investigated how visual impressions of launching and the intuitive physics of collisions contribute to the formation of explicit causal responses. In Experiment 1, participants observed collisions between realistic objects differing in apparent material and hence implied mass, whereas in Experiment 2, participants observed collisions between abstract, non-material objects. The results of Experiment 1 showed that ratings of causality were mainly driven by the intuitive physics of collisions, whereas the results of Experiment 2 provide some support to the hypothesis that ratings of causality were mainly driven by visual impressions of launching. These results suggest that stimulus factors and experimental design factors - such as the realism of the stimuli and the variation in the implied mass of the colliding objects - may determine the relative contributions of perceptual and post-perceptual cognitive processes to explicit causal responses. A revised version of the impetus transmission heuristic provides a satisfactory explanation for these results, whereas the hypothesis that causal responses and intuitive physics are based on the internalization of physical laws does not. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Environmental Risk Factors for Multiple Sclerosis: A Review with a Focus on Molecular Mechanisms

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Cullen; Lucas, Robyn; Taylor, Bruce

2012-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disabling disease of the central nervous system commonly affecting young adults. Pathologically, there are patches of inflammation (plaques) with demyelination of axons and oligodendrocyte loss. There is a global latitude gradient in MS prevalence, and incidence of MS is increasing (particularly in females). These changes suggest a major role for environmental factors in causation of disease. We have reviewed the evidence and potential mechanisms of action for three exposures: vitamin D, Epstein Barr virus and cigarette smoking. Recent advances supporting gene-environment interactions are reviewed. Further research is needed to establish mechanisms of causality in humans and to explore preventative strategies. PMID:23109880

A Hierarchical Causal Taxonomy of Psychopathology across the Life Span

PubMed Central

Lahey, Benjamin B.; Krueger, Robert F.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zald, David H.

2016-01-01

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the three levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. PMID:28004947

The relationship between neuroticism, major depressive disorder and comorbid disorders in Chinese women

PubMed Central

Xia, Jing; He, Qiang; Li, Yihan; Xie, Dong; Zhu, Suoyu; Chen, Jing; Shen, Yuan; Zhang, Ning; Wei, Yan; Chen, Chunfeng; Shen, Jianhua; Zhang, Yan; Gao, Chengge; Li, Youhui; Ding, Jihong; Shen, Wenwu; Wang, Qian; Cao, Meiyue; Liu, Tiebang; Zhang, Jinbei; Duan, Huijun; Bao, Cheng; Ma, Ping; Zhou, Cong; Luo, Yanfang; Zhang, Fengzhi; Liu, Ying; Li, Yi; Jin, Guixing; Zhang, Yutang; Liang, Wei; Chen, Yunchun; Zhao, Changyin; Li, Haiyan; Chen, Yiping; Shi, Shenxun; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Flint, Jonathan; Wang, Xumei

2011-01-01

Objective The personality trait of neuroticism is a risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD), but this relationship has not been demonstrated in clinical samples from Asia. Methods We examined a large-scale clinical study of Chinese Han women with recurrent major depression and community-acquired controls. Results Elevated levels of neuroticism increased the risk for lifetime MDD (with an odds ratio of 1.37 per SD), contributed to the comorbidity of MDD with anxiety disorders, and predicted the onset and severity of MDD. Our findings largely replicate those obtained in clinical populations in Europe and US but differ in two ways: we did not find a relationship between melancholia and neuroticism; we found lower mean scores for neuroticism (3.6 in our community control sample). Limitations Our findings do not apply to MDD in community-acquired samples and may be limited to Han Chinese women. It is not possible to determine whether the association between neuroticism and MDD reflects a causal relationship. Conclusions Neuroticism acts as a risk factor for MDD in Chinese women, as it does in the West and may particularly predispose to comorbidity with anxiety disorders. Cultural factors may have an important effect on its measurement. PMID:21824661

A Single IGF1 Allele Is a Major Determinant of Small Size in Dogs

PubMed Central

Sutter, Nathan B.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Chase, Kevin; Gray, Melissa M.; Zhao, Keyan; Zhu, Lan; Padhukasahasram, Badri; Karlins, Eric; Davis, Sean; Jones, Paul G.; Quignon, Pascale; Johnson, Gary S.; Parker, Heidi G.; Fretwell, Neale; Mosher, Dana S.; Lawler, Dennis F.; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Nordborg, Magnus; Lark, K. Gordon; Wayne, Robert K.; Ostrander, Elaine A.

2009-01-01

The domestic dog exhibits greater diversity in body size than any other terrestrial vertebrate. We used a strategy that exploits the breed structure of dogs to investigate the genetic basis of size. First, through a genome-wide scan, we identified a major quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 15 influencing size variation within a single breed. Second, we examined genetic variation in the 15-megabase interval surrounding the QTL in small and giant breeds and found marked evidence for a selective sweep spanning a single gene (IGF1), encoding insulin-like growth factor 1. A single IGF1 single-nucleotide polymorphism haplotype is common to all small breeds and nearly absent from giant breeds, suggesting that the same causal sequence variant is a major contributor to body size in all small dogs. PMID:17412960

A single IGF1 allele is a major determinant of small size in dogs.

PubMed

Sutter, Nathan B; Bustamante, Carlos D; Chase, Kevin; Gray, Melissa M; Zhao, Keyan; Zhu, Lan; Padhukasahasram, Badri; Karlins, Eric; Davis, Sean; Jones, Paul G; Quignon, Pascale; Johnson, Gary S; Parker, Heidi G; Fretwell, Neale; Mosher, Dana S; Lawler, Dennis F; Satyaraj, Ebenezer; Nordborg, Magnus; Lark, K Gordon; Wayne, Robert K; Ostrander, Elaine A

2007-04-06

The domestic dog exhibits greater diversity in body size than any other terrestrial vertebrate. We used a strategy that exploits the breed structure of dogs to investigate the genetic basis of size. First, through a genome-wide scan, we identified a major quantitative trait locus (QTL) on chromosome 15 influencing size variation within a single breed. Second, we examined genetic variation in the 15-megabase interval surrounding the QTL in small and giant breeds and found marked evidence for a selective sweep spanning a single gene (IGF1), encoding insulin-like growth factor 1. A single IGF1 single-nucleotide polymorphism haplotype is common to all small breeds and nearly absent from giant breeds, suggesting that the same causal sequence variant is a major contributor to body size in all small dogs.

Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

2017-12-01

Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

Diagnostic nomenclature for foetal alcohol spectrum disorders: the continuing challenge of causality.

PubMed

Miller, A R

2013-11-01

Prenatal alcohol exposure is a risk factor for neurologically based cognitive and adaptive disability. Diagnostic nomenclature for prenatally exposed children with cognitive and adaptive disability who lack features for foetal alcohol syndrome (FAS) or partial FAS includes the terms alcohol-related neurodevelopmental disorder (ARND) and foetal alcohol spectrum disorder(s) (FASD). Although these terms are now widely used, this paper argues that both are problematic. ARND is flawed by unjustifiably turning a risk factor into a causal factor and shrouding the result in terminological ambiguity, while FASD is not appropriate as a clinical label, and its use as a proxy for ARND deflects critical attention from the causal inferencing that is integral to diagnosing children with an alcohol-related teratogenic condition. Existing nomenclature is at odds with logical and evidence-based diagnosing and also has implications for interpretation of epidemiological data. Diagnostic nomenclature that is not tightly linked to causal inference is preferable at the present stage of this field's development. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Population Attributable and Preventable Fractions: Cancer Risk Factor Surveillance, and Cancer Policy Projection

PubMed Central

Shield, Kevin D.; Parkin, D. Maxwell; Whiteman, David C.; Rehm, Jürgen; Viallon, Vivian; Micallef, Claire Marant; Vineis, Paolo; Rushton, Lesley; Bray, Freddie; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2016-01-01

The proportions of new cancer cases and deaths that are caused by exposure to risk factors and that could be prevented are key statistics for public health policy and planning. This paper summarizes the methodologies for estimating, challenges in the analysis of, and utility of, population attributable and preventable fractions for cancers caused by major risk factors such as tobacco smoking, dietary factors, high body fat, physical inactivity, alcohol consumption, infectious agents, occupational exposure, air pollution, sun exposure, and insufficient breastfeeding. For population attributable and preventable fractions, evidence of a causal relationship between a risk factor and cancer, outcome (such as incidence and mortality), exposure distribution, relative risk, theoretical-minimum-risk, and counterfactual scenarios need to be clearly defined and congruent. Despite limitations of the methodology and the data used for estimations, the population attributable and preventable fractions are a useful tool for public health policy and planning. PMID:27547696

How do environmental factors influence life cycles and development? An experimental framework for early-diverging metazoans

PubMed Central

Bosch, Thomas C. G.; Adamska, Maja; Augustin, René; Domazet-Loso, Tomislav; Foret, Sylvain; Fraune, Sebastian; Funayama, Noriko; Grasis, Juris; Hamada, Mayuko; Hatta, Masayuki; Hobmayer, Bert; Kawai, Kotoe; Klimovich, Alexander; Manuel, Michael; Shinzato, Chuya; Technau, Uli; Yum, Seungshic; Miller, David J.

2014-01-01

Ecological developmental biology (eco-devo) explores the mechanistic relationships between the processes of individual development and environmental factors. Recent studies imply that some of these relationships have deep evolutionary origins, and may even predate the divergences of the simplest extant animals, including cnidarians and sponges. Development of these early diverging metazoans is often sensitive to environmental factors, and these interactions occur in the context of conserved signaling pathways and mechanisms of tissue homeostasis whose detailed molecular logic remain elusive. Efficient methods for transgenesis in cnidarians together with the ease of experimental manipulation in cnidarians and sponges make them ideal models for understanding causal relationships between environmental factors and developmental mechanisms. Here, we identify major questions at the interface between animal evolution and development and outline a road map for research aimed at identifying the mechanisms that link environmental factors to developmental mechanisms in early diverging metazoans. PMID:25205353

"Head take you": causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica.

PubMed

Arthur, Carlotta M; Whitley, Rob

2015-02-01

Causal attributions are a key factor in explanatory models of illness; however, little research on causal attributions of mental illness has been conducted in developing nations in the Caribbean, including Jamaica. Explanatory models of mental illness may be important in understanding illness experience and be a crucial factor in mental health service seeking and utilization. We explored causal attributions of mental illness in Jamaica by conducting 20 focus groups, including 16 community samples, 2 patient samples, and 2 samples of caregivers of patients, with a total of 159 participants. The 5 most commonly endorsed causal attributions of mental illness are discussed: (a) drug-related causes, including ganja (marijuana); (b) biological causes, such as chemical imbalance, familial transmission, and "blood"; (c) psychological causes, including stress and thinking too much; (d) social causes, such as relationship problems and job loss; and (e) spiritual or religious causes, including Obeah. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Causal Factors Influencing Adversity Quotient of Twelfth Grade and Third-Year Vocational Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pangma, Rachapoom; Tayraukham, Sombat; Nuangchalerm, Prasart

2009-01-01

Problem statement: The aim of this research was to study the causal factors influencing students' adversity between twelfth grade and third-year vocational students in Sisaket province, Thailand. Six hundred and seventy two of twelfth grade and 376 third-year vocational students were selected by multi-stage random sampling techniques. Approach:…

Psychosocial work factors, major depressive and generalised anxiety disorders: results from the French national SIP study.

PubMed

Murcia, Marie; Chastang, Jean-François; Niedhammer, Isabelle

2013-04-25

Anxiety and depression are prevalent mental disorders in working populations. The risk factors of these disorders are not completely well known. Developing knowledge on occupational risk factors for mental disorders appears crucial. This study investigates the association between various classical and emergent psychosocial work factors and major depressive and generalised anxiety disorders in the French working population. The study was based on a national random sample of 3765 men and 3944 women of the French working population (SIP 2006 survey). Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) were measured using a standardised diagnostic interview (MINI). Occupational factors included psychosocial work factors as well as biomechanical, physical, and chemical exposures. Adjustment variables included age, occupation, marital status, social support, and life events. Multivariate analysis was performed using logistic regression analysis. Low decision latitude, overcommitment, and emotional demands were found to be risk factors for both MDD-GAD among both genders. Other risk factors were observed: high psychological demands, low reward, ethical conflict, and job insecurity, but differences were found according to gender and outcome. Significant interaction terms were observed suggesting that low decision latitude, high psychological demands, and job insecurity had stronger effects on mental disorders for men than for women. Given the cross-sectional study design, no causal conclusion could be drawn. This study showed significant associations between classical and emergent psychosocial work factors and MDD-GAD. Preventive actions targeting various psychosocial work factors, including emergent factors, may help to reduce mental disorders at the workplace. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Coal consumption and economic growth in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, H.Y.

2000-03-01

The purpose of this paper is to examine the causality issue between coal consumption and economic growth for Taiwan. The co-integration and Granger's causality test are applied to investigate the relationship between the two economic series. Results of the co-integration and Granger's causality test based on 1954--1997 Taiwan data show a unidirectional causality from economic growth to coal consumption with no feedback effects. Their major finding supports the neutrality hypothesis of coal consumption with respect to economic growth. Further, the finding has practical policy implications for decision makers in the area of macroeconomic planning, as coal conservation is a feasiblemore » policy with no damaging repercussions on economic growth.« less

A Causal Inference Analysis of the Effect of Wildland Fire ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Wildfire smoke is a major contributor to ambient air pollution levels. In this talk, we develop a spatio-temporal model to estimate the contribution of fire smoke to overall air pollution in different regions of the country. We combine numerical model output with observational data within a causal inference framework. Our methods account for aggregation and potential bias of the numerical model simulation, and address uncertainty in the causal estimates. We apply the proposed method to estimation of ozone and fine particulate matter from wildland fires and the impact on health burden assessment. We develop a causal inference framework to assess contributions of fire to ambient PM in the presence of spatial interference.

Causal Modeling of Secondary Science Students' Intentions to Enroll in Physics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawley, Frank E.; Black, Carolyn B.

1992-01-01

Reports a study using the causal modeling method to verify underlying causes of student interest in enrolling in physics as predicted by the theory of planned behavior. Families were identified as major referents in the social support system for physics enrollment. Course and extracurricular conflicts and fear of failure were primary beliefs…

Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-01-01

Evaluating a Computational Model of Social Causality and Responsibility Wenji Mao University of Southern California Institute for Creative...empirically evaluate a computa- tional model of social causality and responsibility against human social judgments. Results from our experimental...developed a general computational model of social cau- sality and responsibility [10, 11] that formalizes the factors people use in reasoning about

Identifying the causes of water crises: A configurational frequency analysis of 22 basins world wide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Gorelick, S.; Lambin, E.; Rozelle, S.; Thompson, B.

2010-12-01

Freshwater "scarcity" has been identified as being a major problem world-wide, but it is surprisingly hard to assess if water is truly scarce at a global or even regional scale. Most empirical water research remains location specific. Characterizing water problems, transferring lessons across regions, to develop a synthesized global view of water issues remains a challenge. In this study we attempt a systematic understanding of water problems across regions. We compared case studies of basins across different regions of the world using configurational frequency analysis. Because water crises are multi-symptom and multi-causal, a major challenge was to categorize water problems so as to make comparisons across cases meaningful. In this study, we focused strictly on water unsustainability, viz. the inability to sustain current levels of the anthropogenic (drinking water, food, power, livelihood) and natural (aquatic species, wetlands) into the future. For each case, the causes of three outcome variables, groundwater declines, surface water declines and aquatic ecosystem declines, were classified and coded. We conducted a meta-analysis in which clusters of peer-reviewed papers by interdisciplinary teams were considered to ensure that the results were not biased towards factors privileged by any one discipline. Based on our final sample of 22 case study river basins, some clear patterns emerged. The meta-analysis suggests that water resources managers have long overemphasized the factors governing supply of water resources and while insufficient attention has been paid to the factors driving demand. Overall, uncontrolled increase in demand was twice as frequent as declines in availability due to climate change or decreased recharge. Moreover, groundwater and surface water declines showed distinct causal pathways. Uncontrolled increases in demand due to lack of credible enforcement were a key factor driving groundwater declines; while increased upstream abstractions, inadequate infrastructure investments, and pollution were dominant causes of surface water declines.

Does sufficient evidence exist to support a causal association between vitamin D status and cardiovascular disease risk? An assessment using Hill's criteria for causality.

PubMed

Weyland, Patricia G; Grant, William B; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-09-02

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor.

Childhood consequences of maternal obesity and excessive weight gain during pregnancy.

PubMed

Gaillard, Romy; Felix, Janine F; Duijts, Liesbeth; Jaddoe, Vincent W V

2014-11-01

Obesity is a major public health concern. In western countries, the prevalence of obesity in pregnant women has strongly increased, with reported prevalence rates reaching 30%. Also, up to 40% of women gain an excessive amount of weight during pregnancy. Recent observational studies and meta-analyses strongly suggest long-term impact of maternal obesity and excessive weight gain during pregnancy on adiposity, cardiovascular and respiratory related health outcomes in their children. These observations suggest that maternal adiposity during pregnancy may program common health problems in the offspring. Currently, it remains unclear whether the observed associations are causal, or just reflect confounding by family-based sociodemographic or lifestyle-related factors. Parent-offspring studies, sibling comparison studies, Mendelian randomization studies and randomized trials can help to explore the causality and underlying mechanisms. Also, the potential for prevention of common diseases in future generations by reducing maternal obesity and excessive weight gain during pregnancy needs to be explored. © 2014 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Expert explanations of honeybee losses in areas of extensive agriculture in France: Gaucho® compared with other supposed causal factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maxim, L.; van der Sluijs, J. P.

2010-01-01

Debates on causality are at the core of controversies as regards environmental changes. The present paper presents a new method for analyzing controversies on causality in a context of social debate and the results of its empirical testing. The case study used is the controversy as regards the role played by the insecticide Gaucho®, compared with other supposed causal factors, in the substantial honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) losses reported to have occurred in France between 1994 and 2004. The method makes use of expert elicitation of the perceived strength of evidence regarding each of Bradford Hill's causality criteria, as regards the link between each of eight possible causal factors identified in attempts to explain each of five signs observed in honeybee colonies. These judgments are elicited from stakeholders and experts involved in the debate, i.e., representatives of Bayer Cropscience, of the Ministry of Agriculture, of the French Food Safety Authority, of beekeepers and of public scientists. We show that the intense controversy observed in confused and passionate public discourses is much less salient when the various arguments are structured using causation criteria. The contradictions between the different expert views have a triple origin: (1) the lack of shared definition and quantification of the signs observed in colonies; (2) the lack of specialist knowledge on honeybees; and (3) the strategic discursive practices associated with the lack of trust between experts representing stakeholders having diverging stakes in the case.

Age- and sex-specific causal effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors.

PubMed

Fall, Tove; Hägg, Sara; Ploner, Alexander; Mägi, Reedik; Fischer, Krista; Draisma, Harmen H M; Sarin, Antti-Pekka; Benyamin, Beben; Ladenvall, Claes; Åkerlund, Mikael; Kals, Mart; Esko, Tõnu; Nelson, Christopher P; Kaakinen, Marika; Huikari, Ville; Mangino, Massimo; Meirhaeghe, Aline; Kristiansson, Kati; Nuotio, Marja-Liisa; Kobl, Michael; Grallert, Harald; Dehghan, Abbas; Kuningas, Maris; de Vries, Paul S; de Bruijn, Renée F A G; Willems, Sara M; Heikkilä, Kauko; Silventoinen, Karri; Pietiläinen, Kirsi H; Legry, Vanessa; Giedraitis, Vilmantas; Goumidi, Louisa; Syvänen, Ann-Christine; Strauch, Konstantin; Koenig, Wolfgang; Lichtner, Peter; Herder, Christian; Palotie, Aarno; Menni, Cristina; Uitterlinden, André G; Kuulasmaa, Kari; Havulinna, Aki S; Moreno, Luis A; Gonzalez-Gross, Marcela; Evans, Alun; Tregouet, David-Alexandre; Yarnell, John W G; Virtamo, Jarmo; Ferrières, Jean; Veronesi, Giovanni; Perola, Markus; Arveiler, Dominique; Brambilla, Paolo; Lind, Lars; Kaprio, Jaakko; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno H; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Ikram, M Arfan; Franco, Oscar H; Cottel, Dominique; Dallongeville, Jean; Hall, Alistair S; Jula, Antti; Tobin, Martin D; Penninx, Brenda W; Peters, Annette; Gieger, Christian; Samani, Nilesh J; Montgomery, Grant W; Whitfield, John B; Martin, Nicholas G; Groop, Leif; Spector, Tim D; Magnusson, Patrik K; Amouyel, Philippe; Boomsma, Dorret I; Nilsson, Peter M; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Lyssenko, Valeriya; Metspalu, Andres; Strachan, David P; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Pedersen, Nancy L; Prokopenko, Inga; McCarthy, Mark I; Ingelsson, Erik

2015-05-01

Observational studies have reported different effects of adiposity on cardiovascular risk factors across age and sex. Since cardiovascular risk factors are enriched in obese individuals, it has not been easy to dissect the effects of adiposity from those of other risk factors. We used a Mendelian randomization approach, applying a set of 32 genetic markers to estimate the causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, glycemic indices, circulating lipid levels, and markers of inflammation and liver disease in up to 67,553 individuals. All analyses were stratified by age (cutoff 55 years of age) and sex. The genetic score was associated with BMI in both nonstratified analysis (P = 2.8 × 10(-107)) and stratified analyses (all P < 3.3 × 10(-30)). We found evidence of a causal effect of adiposity on blood pressure, fasting levels of insulin, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, HDL cholesterol, and triglycerides in a nonstratified analysis and in the <55-year stratum. Further, we found evidence of a smaller causal effect on total cholesterol (P for difference = 0.015) in the ≥55-year stratum than in the <55-year stratum, a finding that could be explained by biology, survival bias, or differential medication. In conclusion, this study extends previous knowledge of the effects of adiposity by providing sex- and age-specific causal estimates on cardiovascular risk factors. © 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Disease ecology and the global emergence of zoonotic pathogens.

PubMed

Wilcox, Bruce A; Gubler, Duane J

2005-09-01

The incidence and frequency of epidemic transmission of zoonotic diseases, both known and newly recognized, has increased dramatically in the past 30 years. It is thought that this dramatic disease emergence is primarily the result of the social, demographic, and environmental transformation that has occurred globally since World War II. However, the causal linkages have not been elucidated. Investigating emerging zoonotic pathogens as an ecological phenomenon can provide significant insights as to why some of these pathogens have jumped species and caused major epidemics in humans. A review of concepts and theory from biological ecology and of causal factors in disease emergence previously described suggests a general model of global zoonotic disease emergence. The model links demographic and societal factors to land use and land cover change whose associated ecological factors help explain disease emergence. The scale and magnitude of these changes are more significant than those associated with climate change, the effects of which are largely not yet understood. Unfortunately, the complex character and non-linear behavior of the human-natural systems in which host-pathogen systems are embedded makes specific incidences of disease emergence or epidemics inherently difficult to predict. Employing a complex systems analytical approach, however, may show how a few key ecological variables and system properties, including the adaptive capacity of institutions, explains the emergence of infectious diseases and how an integrated, multi-level approach to zoonotic disease control can reduce risk.

Measuring Cognitive and Affective Constructs in the Context of an Acute Health Event

PubMed Central

Boudreaux, Edwin D.; Moon, Simon; Tappe, Karyn A.; Bock, Beth; Baumann, Brigitte; Chapman, Gretchen B.

2013-01-01

The latest recommendations for building dynamic health behavior theories emphasize that cognitions, emotions, and behaviors – and the nature of their inter-relationships -- can change over time. This paper describes the development and psychometric validation of four scales created to measure smoking-related causal attributions, perceived illness severity, event-related emotions, and intention to quit smoking among patients experiencing acute cardiac symptoms. After completing qualitative work with a sample of 50 cardiac patients, we administered the scales to 300 patients presenting to the emergency department for cardiac-related symptoms. Factor analyses, alpha coefficients, ANOVAS, and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to establish the scales' reliability and validity. Factor analyses revealed a stable factor structures for each of the four constructs. The scales were internally consistent, with the majority having an alpha of >0.80 (range: 0.57 to 0.89). Mean differences in ratings of the perceived illness severity and event-related emotions were noted across the three time anchors. Significant increases in intention to quit at the time of enrollment, compared to retrospective ratings of intention to quit before the event, provide preliminary support for the sensitivity of this measure to the motivating impact of the event. Finally, smoking-related causal attributions, perceived illness severity, and event-related emotions correlated in the expected directions with intention to quit smoking, providing preliminary support for construct validity. PMID:22970703

A hierarchical causal taxonomy of psychopathology across the life span.

PubMed

Lahey, Benjamin B; Krueger, Robert F; Rathouz, Paul J; Waldman, Irwin D; Zald, David H

2017-02-01

We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences . Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the 3 levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Causal Relationships between the Psychological Acceptance Process of Athletic Injury and Athletic Rehabilitation Behavior

PubMed Central

Tatsumi, Tomonori; Takenouchi, Takashi

2014-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to examine the causal relationships between the psychological acceptance process of athletic injury and athletic-rehabilitation behavior. [Subjects] One hundred forty-four athletes who had injury experiences participated in this study, and 133 (mean age = 20.21 years, SD = 1.07; mean weeks without playing sports = 7.97 weeks, SD = 11.26) of them provided valid questionnaire responses which were subjected to analysis. [Methods] The subjects were asked to answer our originally designed questionnaire, the Psychosocial Recovery Factor Scale (PSRF-S), and two other pre-existing scales, the Athletic Injury Psychological Acceptance Scale and the Athletic-Rehabilitation Dedication Scale. [Results] The results of factor analysis indicate “emotional stability”, “social competence in the team”, “temporal perspective”, and “communication with the teammates” are factors of the PSRF-S. Lastly, the causal model in which psychosocial recovery factors are mediated by psychological acceptance of athletic injury, and influence on rehabilitation behaviors, was examined using structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of SEM indicate that the factors of emotional stability and temporal perspective are mediated by the psychological acceptance of the injury, which positively influences athletic-rehabilitation dedication. [Conclusion] The causal model was confirmed to be valid. PMID:25202190

Porque me tocó a mi? Mexican American diabetes patients' causal stories and their relationship to treatment behaviors.

PubMed

Hunt, L M; Valenzuela, M A; Pugh, J A

1998-04-01

This paper reports findings from an ethnographic study of self-care behaviors and illness concepts among Mexican-American non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) patients. Open-ended interviews were conducted with 49 NIDDM patients from two public hospital outpatient clinics in South Texas. They are self-identified Mexican-Americans who have had NIDDM for at least 1 yr, and have no major impairment due to NIDDM. Interviews focused on their concepts and experiences in managing their illness and their self-care behaviors. Clinical assessment of their glucose control was also extracted from their medical records. The texts of patient interviews were content analyzed through building and refining thematic matrixes focusing on their causal explanations and treatment behaviors. We found patients' causal explanations of their illness often are driven by an effort to connect the illness in a direct and specific way to their personal history and their past experience with treatments. While most cite biomedically accepted causes such as heredity and diet, they elaborate these concepts into personally relevant constructs by citing Provoking Factors, such as behaviors or events. Their causal models are thus both specific to their personal history and consistent with their experiences with treatment success or failure. Based on these findings, we raise a critique of the Locus of Control Model of treatment behavior prevalent in the diabetes education literature. Our analysis suggests that a sense that one's own behavior is important to the disease onset may reflect patients' evaluation of their experience with treatment outcomes, rather than determining their level of activity in treatment.

Do Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs) Cause Fractures?

PubMed

Warden, Stuart J; Fuchs, Robyn K

2016-10-01

Recent meta-analyses report a 70 % increase in fracture risk in selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) users compared to non-users; however, included studies were observational and limited in their ability to establish causality. Here, we use the Bradford Hill criteria to explore causality between SSRIs and fractures. We found a strong, consistent, and temporal relationship between SSRIs and fractures, which appears to follow a biological gradient. However, specificity and biological plausibility remain concerns. In terms of specificity, the majority of available data have limitations due to either confounding by indication or channeling bias. Self-controlled case series address some of these limitations and provide relatively strong observational evidence for a causal relationship between SSRIs and fracture. In doing so, they suggest that falls contribute to fractures in SSRI users. Whether there are also underlying changes in skeletal properties remains unresolved. Initial studies provide some evidence for skeletal effects of SSRIs; however, the pathways involved need to be established before biological plausibility can be accepted. As the link between SSRIs and fractures is based on observational data and not evidence from prospective trials, there is insufficient evidence to definitively determine a causal relationship and it appears premature to label SSRIs as a secondary cause of osteoporosis. SSRIs appear to contribute to fracture-inducing falls, and addressing any fall risk associated with SSRIs may be an efficient approach to reducing SSRI-related fractures. As fractures stemming from SSRI-induced falls are more likely in individuals with compromised bone health, it is worth considering bone density testing and intervention for those presenting with risk factors for osteoporosis.

Causal inference in public health.

PubMed

Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

2013-01-01

Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melby-Lervag, Monica

2012-01-01

The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

The effects of stress-tension on depression and anxiety symptoms: evidence from a novel twin modelling analysis.

PubMed

Davey, C G; López-Solà, C; Bui, M; Hopper, J L; Pantelis, C; Fontenelle, L F; Harrison, B J

2016-11-01

Negative mood states are composed of symptoms of depression and anxiety, and by a third factor related to stress, tension and irritability. We sought to clarify the nature of the relationships between the factors by studying twin pairs. A total of 503 monozygotic twin pairs completed the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS), an instrument that assesses symptoms of depression, anxiety and stress-tension. We applied a recently developed twin regression methodology - Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding (ICE FALCON) - to test for evidence consistent with the existence of 'causal' influences between the DASS factors. There was evidence consistent with the stress-tension factor having a causal influence on both the depression (p < 0.0001) and anxiety factors (p = 0.001), and for the depression factor having a causal influence on the anxiety factor (p < 0.001). Our findings suggest a critical role for stress-tension in the structure of negative mood states, and that interventions that target it may be particularly effective in reducing depression and anxiety symptoms.

Moving Matters: The Causal Effect of Moving Schools on Student Performance. Working Paper #01-15

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Amy Ellen; Stiefel, Leanna; Cordes, Sarah A.

2015-01-01

The majority of existing research on mobility indicates that students do worse in the year of a school move. This research, however, has been unsuccessful in isolating the causal effects of mobility and often fails to distinguish the heterogeneous impacts of moves, conflating structural moves (mandated by a school's terminal grade) and…

City Connects: Building an Argument for Effects on Student Achievement with a Quasi-Experimental Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Mary; Raczek, Anastasia; Sibley, Erin; Lee-St. John, Terrence; An, Chen; Akbayin, Bercem; Dearing, Eric; Foley, Claire

2015-01-01

While randomized experimental designs are the gold standard in education research concerned with causal inference, non-experimental designs are ubiquitous. For researchers who work with non-experimental data and are no less concerned for causal inference, the major problem is potential omitted variable bias. In this presentation, the authors…

Infant acetylcholine, dopamine, and melatonin dysregulation: Neonatal biomarkers and causal factors for ASD and ADHD phenotypes.

PubMed

Hellmer, Kahl; Nyström, Pär

2017-03-01

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and ADHD are common neurodevelopmental disorders that benefit from early intervention but currently suffer from late detection and diagnosis: neurochemical dysregulations are extant already at birth but clinical phenotypes are not distinguishable until preschool age or later. The vast heterogeneity between subjects' phenotypes relates to interaction between multiple unknown factors, making research on factor causality insurmountable. To unlock this situation we pose the hypothesis that atypical pupillary light responses from rods, cones, and the recently discovered ipRGC system reflect early acetylcholine, melatonin, and dopamine dysregulation that are sufficient but not necessary factors for developing ASD and/or ADHD disorders. Current technology allows non-invasive cost-efficient assessment already from the first postnatal month. The benefits of the current proposal are: identification of clinical subgroups based on cause rather than phenotypes; facilitation of research on other causal factors; neonatal prediction of later diagnoses; and guidance for targeted therapeutical intervention. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Should visceral fat be reduced to increase longevity?

PubMed

Finelli, Carmine; Sommella, Luigi; Gioia, Saverio; La Sala, Nicolina; Tarantino, Giovanni

2013-09-01

Several epidemiologic studies have implicated visceral fat as a major risk factor for insulin resistance, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, stroke, metabolic syndrome and death. Utilizing novel models of visceral obesity, numerous studies have demonstrated that the relationship between visceral fat and longevity is causal while the accrual of subcutaneous fat does not appear to play an important role in the etiology of disease risk. Specific recommended intake levels vary based on a number of factors, including current weight, activity levels, and weight loss goals. It is discussed the need of reducing the visceral fat as a potential treatment strategy to prevent or delay age-related diseases and to increase longevity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy and child outcomes: Real or spurious effect?

PubMed Central

Knopik, Valerie S.

2013-01-01

Maternal smoking during pregnancy (MSDP) is a major public health concern with clearly established consequences to both mother and newborn (e.g., low birth weight, altered cardiorespiratory responses). MSDP has also been associated with higher rates of a variety of poor cognitive and behavioral outcomes in children, including ADHD, conduct disorder, impaired learning and memory, and cognitive dysfunction. However, the evidence suggesting causal effects of MSDP for these outcomes is muddied in the existing literature due to the frequent inability to separate prenatal exposure effects from other confounding environmental and genetic factors. Carefully designed studies using genetically sensitive strategies can build upon current evidence and begin to elucidate the likely complex factors contributing to associations between MSDP and child outcomes. PMID:19142764

Near miss and minor occupational injury: Does it share a common causal pathway with major injury?

PubMed

Alamgir, Hasanat; Yu, Shicheng; Gorman, Erin; Ngan, Karen; Guzman, Jaime

2009-01-01

An essential assumption of injury prevention programs is the common cause hypothesis that the causal pathways of near misses and minor injuries are similar to those of major injuries. The rates of near miss, minor injury and major injury of all reported incidents and musculoskeletal incidents (MSIs) were calculated for three health regions using information from a surveillance database and productive hours from payroll data. The relative distribution of individual causes and activities involved in near miss, minor injury and major injury were then compared. For all reported incidents, there were significant differences in the relative distribution of causes for near miss, minor, and major injury. However, the relative distribution of causes and activities involved in minor and major MSIs were similar. The top causes and activities involved were the same across near miss, minor, and major injury. Finding from this study support the use of near miss and minor injury data as potential outcome measures for injury prevention programs. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

[Association between the risk of major depression and low physical activity in peruvian workers studying in universities].

PubMed

Murillo-Pérez, Luis; Rojas-Adrianzén, Carolay; Ramos-Torres, Gabriela; Cárdenas-Vicente, Bryan; Hernández-Fernández, Wendy; Larco-Castilla, Piero; Haro-García, Luis; Mezones-Holguín, Edward

2014-01-01

In order to assess if an association exists between the risk of major depression (RMD) and physical activity (PA), controlling for demographic and academic variables in workers enrolled in undergraduate studies at a private university in Lima, Peru, we carried out a cross-sectional study of 1,111 people. We used the Major Depression Inventory (MDI) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) to measure RMD and PA, respectively. RMD prevalence was 4.2%. In the multiple regression model adjusted for age, gender, unemployment and hours of sleep, low levels of PA were associated with increased odds of RDM (OR: 2.15, 95% CI: 1.16 to 4.00). We conclude that there is an association between RMD and PA in the study population, independent of demographic and academics factors. Strategies to improve screening and development of longitudinal studies to assess causality are suggested.

Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

PubMed Central

Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

2003-01-01

Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

Granger causality revisited

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Bastos, André M.; Oswal, Ashwini; van Wijk, Bernadette; Richter, Craig; Litvak, Vladimir

2014-01-01

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. PMID:25003817

Quantum Common Causes and Quantum Causal Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, John-Mark A.; Barrett, Jonathan; Horsman, Dominic C.; Lee, Ciarán M.; Spekkens, Robert W.

2017-07-01

Reichenbach's principle asserts that if two observed variables are found to be correlated, then there should be a causal explanation of these correlations. Furthermore, if the explanation is in terms of a common cause, then the conditional probability distribution over the variables given the complete common cause should factorize. The principle is generalized by the formalism of causal models, in which the causal relationships among variables constrain the form of their joint probability distribution. In the quantum case, however, the observed correlations in Bell experiments cannot be explained in the manner Reichenbach's principle would seem to demand. Motivated by this, we introduce a quantum counterpart to the principle. We demonstrate that under the assumption that quantum dynamics is fundamentally unitary, if a quantum channel with input A and outputs B and C is compatible with A being a complete common cause of B and C , then it must factorize in a particular way. Finally, we show how to generalize our quantum version of Reichenbach's principle to a formalism for quantum causal models and provide examples of how the formalism works.

The fuzzy cube and causal efficacy: representation of concomitant mechanisms in stroke.

PubMed

Jobe, Thomas H.; Helgason, Cathy M.

1998-04-01

Twentieth century medical science has embraced nineteenth century Boolean probability theory based upon two-valued Aristotelian logic. With the later addition of bit-based, von Neumann structured computational architectures, an epistemology based on randomness has led to a bivalent epidemiological methodology that dominates medical decision making. In contrast, fuzzy logic, based on twentieth century multi-valued logic, and computational structures that are content addressed and adaptively modified, has advanced a new scientific paradigm for the twenty-first century. Diseases such as stroke involve multiple concomitant causal factors that are difficult to represent using conventional statistical methods. We tested which paradigm best represented this complex multi-causal clinical phenomenon-stroke. We show that the fuzzy logic paradigm better represented clinical complexity in cerebrovascular disease than current probability theory based methodology. We believe this finding is generalizable to all of clinical science since multiple concomitant causal factors are involved in nearly all known pathological processes.

Learning about causes from people and about people as causes: probabilistic models and social causal reasoning.

PubMed

Buchsbaum, Daphna; Seiver, Elizabeth; Bridgers, Sophie; Gopnik, Alison

2012-01-01

A major challenge children face is uncovering the causal structure of the world around them. Previous research on children's causal inference has demonstrated their ability to learn about causal relationships in the physical environment using probabilistic evidence. However, children must also learn about causal relationships in the social environment, including discovering the causes of other people's behavior, and understanding the causal relationships between others' goal-directed actions and the outcomes of those actions. In this chapter, we argue that social reasoning and causal reasoning are deeply linked, both in the real world and in children's minds. Children use both types of information together and in fact reason about both physical and social causation in fundamentally similar ways. We suggest that children jointly construct and update causal theories about their social and physical environment and that this process is best captured by probabilistic models of cognition. We first present studies showing that adults are able to jointly infer causal structure and human action structure from videos of unsegmented human motion. Next, we describe how children use social information to make inferences about physical causes. We show that the pedagogical nature of a demonstrator influences children's choices of which actions to imitate from within a causal sequence and that this social information interacts with statistical causal evidence. We then discuss how children combine evidence from an informant's testimony and expressed confidence with evidence from their own causal observations to infer the efficacy of different potential causes. We also discuss how children use these same causal observations to make inferences about the knowledge state of the social informant. Finally, we suggest that psychological causation and attribution are part of the same causal system as physical causation. We present evidence that just as children use covariation between physical causes and their effects to learn physical causal relationships, they also use covaration between people's actions and the environment to make inferences about the causes of human behavior.

Non-Western students' causal reasoning about biologically adaptive changes in humans, other animals and plants: instructional and curricular implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbajiorgu, Ngozika; Anidu, Innocent

2017-06-01

Senior secondary school students (N = 360), 14- to 18-year-olds, from the Igbo culture of eastern Nigeria responded to a questionnaire requiring them to give causal explanations of biologically adaptive changes in humans, other animals and plants. A student subsample (n = 36) was, subsequently, selected for in-depth interviews. Significant differences were found between prompts within the prompt categories, suggesting item feature effects. However, the most coherent pattern was found within the plant category as patterns differed for the mechanistic proximate (MP) reasoning category only. Patterns also differed highly significantly between the prompt categories, with patterns for teleology, MP, mechanistic ultimate and don't know categories similar for plants and other animals but different for the human category. Both urban and rural students recognise commonalities in causality between the three prompt categories, in that their preferences for causal explanations were similar across four reasoning categories. The rural students, however, were more likely than their urban counterparts to give multiple causal explanations in the span of a single response and less likely to attribute causal agency to God. Two factors, religious belief and language, for all the students; and one factor, ecological closeness to nature, for rural students were suspected to have produced these patterns.

The influence of farmer demographic characteristics on environmental behaviour: a review.

PubMed

Burton, Rob J F

2014-03-15

Many agricultural studies have observed a relationship between farmer demographic characteristics and environmental behaviours. These relationships are frequently employed in the construction of models, the identification of farmer types, or as part of more descriptive analyses aimed at understanding farmers' environmental behaviour. However, they have also often been found to be inconsistent or contradictory. Although a considerable body of literature has built up around the subject area, research has a tendency to focus on factors such as the direction, strength and consistency of the relationship - leaving the issue of causality largely to speculation. This review addresses this gap by reviewing literature on 4 key demographic variables: age, experience, education, and gender for hypothesised causal links. Overall the review indicates that the issue of causality is a complex one. Inconsistent relationships can be attributed to the presence of multiple causal pathways, the role of scheme factors in determining which pathway is important, inadequately specified measurements of demographic characteristics, and the treatment of non-linear causalities as linear. In addition, all demographic characteristics were perceived to be influenced (to varying extents) by cultural-historical patterns leading to cohort effects or socialised differences in the relationship with environmental behaviour. The paper concludes that more work is required on the issue of causality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Subfertility factors rather than assisted conception factors affect cognitive and behavioural development of 4-year-old singletons.

PubMed

Schendelaar, Pamela; La Bastide-Van Gemert, Sacha; Heineman, Maas Jan; Middelburg, Karin J; Seggers, Jorien; Van den Heuvel, Edwin R; Hadders-Algra, Mijna

2016-12-01

Research on cognitive and behavioural development of children born after assisted conception is inconsistent. This prospective study aimed to explore underlying causal relationships between ovarian stimulation, in-vitro procedures, subfertility components and child cognition and behaviour. Participants were singletons born to subfertile couples after ovarian stimulation IVF (n = 63), modified natural cycle IVF (n = 53), natural conception (n = 79) and singletons born to fertile couples (reference group) (n = 98). At 4 years, cognition (Kaufmann-ABC-II; total IQ) and behaviour (Child Behavior Checklist; total problem T-score) were assessed. Causal inference search algorithms and structural equation modelling was applied to unravel causal mechanisms. Most children had typical cognitive and behavioural scores. No underlying causal effect was found between ovarian stimulation and the in-vitro procedure and outcome. Direct negative causal effects were found between severity of subfertility (time to pregnancy) and cognition and presence of subfertility and behaviour. Maternal age and maternal education acted as confounders. The study concludes that no causal effects were found between ovarian stimulation or in-vitro procedures and cognition and behaviour in childrenaged 4 years born to subfertile couples. Subfertility, especially severe subfertility, however, was associated with worse cognition and behaviour. Copyright © 2016 Reproductive Healthcare Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does health promote economic growth? Portuguese case study: from dictatorship to full democracy.

PubMed

Morgado, Sónia Maria Aniceto

2014-07-01

This paper revisits the debate on health and economic growth (Deaton in J Econ Lit 51:113-158, 2003) focusing on the Portuguese case by testing the relationship between growth and health. We test Portuguese insights, using time series data from 1960 to 2005, taking into account different variables (life expectancy, labour, capital, infant mortality) and considering the years that included major events on the political scene, such as the dictatorship and a closed economy (1960-1974), a revolution (1974) and full democracy and an open economy (1975-2005), factors that influence major economic, cultural, social and politic indicators. Therefore the analysis is carried out adopting Lucas' (J Monet Econ 22(1):3-42, 1988) endogenous growth model that considers human capital as one factor of production, it adopts a VAR (vector autoregressive) model to test the causality between growth and health. Estimates based on the VAR seem to confirm that economic growth influences the health process, but health does not promote growth, during the period under study.

Causality Analysis of fMRI Data Based on the Directed Information Theory Framework.

PubMed

Wang, Zhe; Alahmadi, Ahmed; Zhu, David C; Li, Tongtong

2016-05-01

This paper aims to conduct fMRI-based causality analysis in brain connectivity by exploiting the directed information (DI) theory framework. Unlike the well-known Granger causality (GC) analysis, which relies on the linear prediction technique, the DI theory framework does not have any modeling constraints on the sequences to be evaluated and ensures estimation convergence. Moreover, it can be used to generate the GC graphs. In this paper, first, we introduce the core concepts in the DI framework. Second, we present how to conduct causality analysis using DI measures between two time series. We provide the detailed procedure on how to calculate the DI for two finite-time series. The two major steps involved here are optimal bin size selection for data digitization and probability estimation. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of DI-based causality analysis using both the simulated data and experimental fMRI data, and compare the results with that of the GC analysis. Our analysis indicates that GC analysis is effective in detecting linear or nearly linear causal relationship, but may have difficulty in capturing nonlinear causal relationships. On the other hand, DI-based causality analysis is more effective in capturing both linear and nonlinear causal relationships. Moreover, it is observed that brain connectivity among different regions generally involves dynamic two-way information transmissions between them. Our results show that when bidirectional information flow is present, DI is more effective than GC to quantify the overall causal relationship.

Unified framework for information integration based on information geometry

PubMed Central

Oizumi, Masafumi; Amari, Shun-ichi

2016-01-01

Assessment of causal influences is a ubiquitous and important subject across diverse research fields. Drawn from consciousness studies, integrated information is a measure that defines integration as the degree of causal influences among elements. Whereas pairwise causal influences between elements can be quantified with existing methods, quantifying multiple influences among many elements poses two major mathematical difficulties. First, overestimation occurs due to interdependence among influences if each influence is separately quantified in a part-based manner and then simply summed over. Second, it is difficult to isolate causal influences while avoiding noncausal confounding influences. To resolve these difficulties, we propose a theoretical framework based on information geometry for the quantification of multiple causal influences with a holistic approach. We derive a measure of integrated information, which is geometrically interpreted as the divergence between the actual probability distribution of a system and an approximated probability distribution where causal influences among elements are statistically disconnected. This framework provides intuitive geometric interpretations harmonizing various information theoretic measures in a unified manner, including mutual information, transfer entropy, stochastic interaction, and integrated information, each of which is characterized by how causal influences are disconnected. In addition to the mathematical assessment of consciousness, our framework should help to analyze causal relationships in complex systems in a complete and hierarchical manner. PMID:27930289

[Medication errors in a neonatal unit: One of the main adverse events].

PubMed

Esqué Ruiz, M T; Moretones Suñol, M G; Rodríguez Miguélez, J M; Sánchez Ortiz, E; Izco Urroz, M; de Lamo Camino, M; Figueras Aloy, J

2016-04-01

Neonatal units are one of the hospital areas most exposed to the committing of treatment errors. A medication error (ME) is defined as the avoidable incident secondary to drug misuse that causes or may cause harm to the patient. The aim of this paper is to present the incidence of ME (including feeding) reported in our neonatal unit and its characteristics and possible causal factors. A list of the strategies implemented for prevention is presented. An analysis was performed on the ME declared in a neonatal unit. A total of 511 MEs have been reported over a period of seven years in the neonatal unit. The incidence in the critical care unit was 32.2 per 1000 hospital days or 20 per 100 patients, of which 0.22 per 1000 days had serious repercussions. The ME reported were, 39.5% prescribing errors, 68.1% administration errors, 0.6% were adverse drug reactions. Around two-thirds (65.4%) were produced by drugs, with 17% being intercepted. The large majority (89.4%) had no impact on the patient, but 0.6% caused permanent damage or death. Nurses reported 65.4% of MEs. The most commonly implicated causal factor was distraction (59%). Simple corrective action (alerts), and intermediate (protocols, clinical sessions and courses) and complex actions (causal analysis, monograph) were performed. It is essential to determine the current state of ME, in order to establish preventive measures and, together with teamwork and good practices, promote a climate of safety. Copyright © 2015 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Intervention-Based Evidence Surrounding the Causal Role of Breakfast on Markers of Weight Management, with Specific Focus on Breakfast Composition and Size1234

PubMed Central

Leidy, Heather J; Gwin, Jess A; Roenfeldt, Connor A; Zino, Adam Z; Shafer, Rebecca S

2016-01-01

Nutritional strategies are vitally needed to aid in the management of obesity. Cross-sectional and epidemiologic studies consistently demonstrate that breakfast consumption is strongly associated with a healthy body weight. However, the intervention-based long-term evidence supporting a causal role of breakfast consumption is quite limited and appears to be influenced by several key dietary factors, such as dietary protein, fiber, and energy content. This article provides a comprehensive review of the intervention-based literature that examines the effects of breakfast consumption on markers of weight management and daily food intake. In addition, specific focus on the composition and size (i.e., energy content) of the breakfast meal is included. Overall, there is limited evidence supporting (or refuting) the daily consumption of breakfast for body weight management and daily food intake. In terms of whether the type of breakfast influences these outcomes, there is accumulating evidence supporting the consumption of increased dietary protein and fiber content at breakfast, as well as the consumption of more energy during the morning hours. However, the majority of the studies that manipulated breakfast composition and content did not control for habitual breakfast behaviors, nor did these studies include a breakfast-skipping control arm. Thus, it is unclear whether the addition of these types of breakfast plays a causal role in weight management. Future research, including large randomized controlled trials of longer-term (i.e., ≥6 mo) duration with a focus on key dietary factors, is critical to begin to assess whether breakfast recommendations are appropriate for the prevention and/or treatment of obesity. PMID:27184285

Childhood Health Consequences of Maternal Obesity during Pregnancy: A Narrative Review.

PubMed

Gaillard, Romy; Santos, Susana; Duijts, Liesbeth; Felix, Janine F

2016-01-01

Obesity is a major public health problem among women of reproductive age. In a narrative review, we examined the influence of maternal obesity during pregnancy on fetal outcomes and childhood adiposity, cardio-metabolic, respiratory and cognitive-related health outcomes. We discuss results from recent studies, the causality and potential underlying mechanisms of observed associations and challenges for future epidemiological studies. Evidence from observational studies strongly suggests that maternal pre-pregnancy obesity and excessive gestational weight gain are associated with increased risks of fetal pregnancy complications and adverse childhood cardio-metabolic, respiratory and cognitive-related health outcomes. It remains unclear whether these associations are due to intrauterine mechanisms or explained by confounding family-based sociodemographic, lifestyle and genetic factors. The underlying mechanisms have mainly been assessed in animal studies and small human studies, and are yet to be further explored in large human studies. Key Message: Maternal obesity is an important modifiable factor during pregnancy that is associated with a variety of adverse offspring health outcomes. Further studies are needed to explore the causality and underlying mechanisms of the observed associations. Ultimately, preventive strategies focused on reducing maternal obesity and excessive weight gain during pregnancy may reduce common diseases in future generations. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Influence analysis for high-dimensional time series with an application to epileptic seizure onset zone detection

PubMed Central

Flamm, Christoph; Graef, Andreas; Pirker, Susanne; Baumgartner, Christoph; Deistler, Manfred

2013-01-01

Granger causality is a useful concept for studying causal relations in networks. However, numerical problems occur when applying the corresponding methodology to high-dimensional time series showing co-movement, e.g. EEG recordings or economic data. In order to deal with these shortcomings, we propose a novel method for the causal analysis of such multivariate time series based on Granger causality and factor models. We present the theoretical background, successfully assess our methodology with the help of simulated data and show a potential application in EEG analysis of epileptic seizures. PMID:23354014

Critical Factors Analysis for Offshore Software Development Success by Structural Equation Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wada, Yoshihisa; Tsuji, Hiroshi

In order to analyze the success/failure factors in offshore software development service by the structural equation modeling, this paper proposes to follow two approaches together; domain knowledge based heuristic analysis and factor analysis based rational analysis. The former works for generating and verifying of hypothesis to find factors and causalities. The latter works for verifying factors introduced by theory to build the model without heuristics. Following the proposed combined approaches for the responses from skilled project managers of the questionnaire, this paper found that the vendor property has high causality for the success compared to software property and project property.

The complex spine: the multidimensional system of causal pathways for low-back disorders.

PubMed

Marras, William S

2012-12-01

The aim of this study was to examine the logic behind the knowledge of low-back problem causal pathways. Low-back pain and low-back disorders (LBDs) continue to represent the major musculoskeletal risk problem in the workplace,with the prevalence and costs of such disorders increasing over time. In recent years, there has been much criticism of the ability of ergonomics methods to control the risk of LBDs. Logical assessment of the systems logic associated with our understanding and prevention of LBDs. Current spine loading as well as spine tolerance research efforts are bringing the field to the point where there is a better systems understanding of the inextricable link between the musculoskeletal system and the cognitive system. Loading is influenced by both the physical environment factors as well as mental demands, whereas tolerances are defined by both physical tissue tolerance and biochemically based tissue sensitivities to pain. However, the logic used in many low-back risk assessment tools may be overly simplistic, given what is understood about causal pathways. Current tools typically assess only load or position in a very cursory manner. Efforts must work toward satisfying both the physical environment and the cognitive environment for the worker if one is to reliably lower the risk of low-back problems. This systems representation of LBD development may serve as a guide to identify gaps in our understanding of LBDs.

What causes breast cancer? A systematic review of causal attributions among breast cancer survivors and how these compare to expert-endorsed risk factors.

PubMed

Dumalaon-Canaria, Jo Anne; Hutchinson, Amanda D; Prichard, Ivanka; Wilson, Carlene

2014-07-01

The aim of this paper was to review published research that analyzed causal attributions for breast cancer among women previously diagnosed with breast cancer. These attributions were compared with risk factors identified by published scientific evidence in order to determine the level of agreement between cancer survivors' attributions and expert opinion. A comprehensive search for articles, published between 1982 and 2012, reporting studies on causal attributions for breast cancer among patients and survivors was undertaken. Of 5,135 potentially relevant articles, 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. Two additional articles were sourced from reference lists of included studies. Results indicated a consistent belief among survivors that their own breast cancer could be attributed to family history, environmental factors, stress, fate, or chance. Lifestyle factors were less frequently identified, despite expert health information highlighting the importance of these factors in controlling and modifying cancer risk. This review demonstrated that misperceptions about the contribution of modifiable lifestyle factors to the risk of breast cancer have remained largely unchanged over the past 30 years. The findings of this review indicate that beliefs about the causes of breast cancer among affected women are not always consistent with the judgement of experts. Breast cancer survivors did not regularly identify causal factors supported by expert consensus such as age, physical inactivity, breast density, alcohol consumption, and reproductive history. Further research examining psychological predictors of attributions and the impact of cancer prevention messages on adjustment and well-being of cancer survivors is warranted.

Bayes and blickets: Effects of knowledge on causal induction in children and adults

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Thomas L.; Sobel, David M.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.; Gopnik, Alison

2011-01-01

People are adept at inferring novel causal relations, even from only a few observations. Prior knowledge about the probability of encountering causal relations of various types and the nature of the mechanisms relating causes and effects plays a crucial role in these inferences. We test a formal account of how this knowledge can be used and acquired, based on analyzing causal induction as Bayesian inference. Five studies explored the predictions of this account with adults and 4-year-olds, using tasks in which participants learned about the causal properties of a set of objects. The studies varied the two factors that our Bayesian approach predicted should be relevant to causal induction: the prior probability with which causal relations exist, and the assumption of a deterministic or a probabilistic relation between cause and effect. Adults’ judgments (Experiments 1, 2, and 4) were in close correspondence with the quantitative predictions of the model, and children’s judgments (Experiments 3 and 5) agreed qualitatively with this account. PMID:21972897

SU-E-P-07: Retrospective Analysis of Incident Reports at a Radiology Department: Feedback From Incident Reporting System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kakinohana, Y; Toita, T; Heianna, J

Purpose: To provide an overview of reported incidents that occurred in a radiology department and to describe the most common causal source of incidents. Methods: Incident reports from the radiology department at the University of the Ryukyus Hospital between 2008 and 2013 were collected and analyzed retrospectively. The incident report form contains the following items, causal factors of the incident and desirable corrective actions to prevent recurrence of similar incidents. These items allow the institution to investigate/analyze root causes of the incidents and suggest measures to be taken to prevent further, similar incidents. The ‘causal factors of the incident’ itemmore » comprises multiple selections from among 24 selections and includes some synonymous selections. In this study, this item was re-categorized into four causal source types: (i) carelessness, (ii) lack of skill or knowledge, (iii) deficiencies in communication, and (iv) external factors. Results: There were a total of 7490 incident reports over the study period and 276 (3.7%) were identified as originating from the radiology department. The most frequent causal source type was carelessness (62%). The other three types showed similar frequencies (10–14%). The staff members involved in incidents indicate three predominant desirable corrective actions to prevent or decrease the recurrence of similar incidents. These are ‘improvement in communication’ (24%), ‘staff training/education’ (19%), and ‘daily medical procedures’ (22%), and the most frequent was ‘improvement in communication’. Even though the most frequent causal factor was related to carelessness, the most desirable corrective action indicated by the staff members was related to communication. Conclusion: Our finding suggests that the most immediate causes are strongly related to carelessness. However, the most likely underlying causes of incidents would be related to deficiencies in effective communication. At our department, therefore, the primary action to prevent/reduce similar incidents should be ‘communication improvement’.« less

Does Sufficient Evidence Exist to Support a Causal Association between Vitamin D Status and Cardiovascular Disease Risk? An Assessment Using Hill’s Criteria for Causality

PubMed Central

Weyland, Patricia G.; Grant, William B.; Howie-Esquivel, Jill

2014-01-01

Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels have been found to be inversely associated with both prevalent and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors; dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. This review looks for evidence of a causal association between low 25(OH)D levels and increased CVD risk. We evaluated journal articles in light of Hill’s criteria for causality in a biological system. The results of our assessment are as follows. Strength of association: many randomized controlled trials (RCTs), prospective and cross-sectional studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Consistency of observed association: most studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors in various populations, locations and circumstances. Temporality of association: many RCTs and prospective studies found statistically significant inverse associations between 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk factors. Biological gradient (dose-response curve): most studies assessing 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk found an inverse association exhibiting a linear biological gradient. Plausibility of biology: several plausible cellular-level causative mechanisms and biological pathways may lead from a low 25(OH)D level to increased risk for CVD with mediators, such as dyslipidemia, hypertension and diabetes mellitus. Experimental evidence: some well-designed RCTs found increased CVD risk factors with decreasing 25(OH)D levels. Analogy: the association between serum 25(OH)D levels and CVD risk is analogous to that between 25(OH)D levels and the risk of overall cancer, periodontal disease, multiple sclerosis and breast cancer. Conclusion: all relevant Hill criteria for a causal association in a biological system are satisfied to indicate a low 25(OH)D level as a CVD risk factor. PMID:25184368

Beliefs about causes of major depression: Clinical and treatment correlates among African Americans in an urban community.

PubMed

Murphy, Eleanor; Hankerson, Sidney

2018-04-01

Major depression is increasingly viewed in the United States public as a medical disorder with biological and psychosocial causes. Yet little is known about how causal attributions about depression vary among low-income racial minorities. This study examined beliefs about causes of depression and their demographic, clinical and treatment correlates in a lower income African American sample. Volunteers (N = 110) aged 24-79 years, who participated in a family study of depression, completed a 45-item questionnaire on their beliefs about the causes of depression. We used multidimensional scaling (MDS) to cluster items into causal domains and multivariate regression analyses to test associations of causal domains with demographic and clinical characteristics and treatments received. Three causal domains, conceptualized as Eastern culture/supernatural (ECS), Western culture/natural/psychosocial (WCN-P), and /neurobiological (WCN-N) attributions, were derived from MDS clusters. WCN-P was most commonly endorsed (50%-91%) and ECS least endorsed as causes of depression (10-44%). This pattern held across gender, age, educational levels, and diagnostic category. WCN-N items were moderately endorsed, with some distinction between genetic causes and other biological causes. WCN-N was positively associated with medication as opposed to other forms of treatment (B = 1.17; p = .049). Among low-income African Americans, beliefs about causes of depression are varied but broadly consistent explanatory models that include a combination of psychosocial causes with genetic/biological contributions. For certain individuals, supernatural and natural causal attributions may coexist without dissonance. Causal attributions may be associated with types of treatment accepted and have implications for treatment compliance and adherence. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Factors Relating to Staff Attributions of Control over Challenging Behaviour

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dilworth, Jennifer A.; Phillips, Neil; Rose, John

2011-01-01

Background: Previous research has suggested that severity of intellectual disability (ID) and topography of behaviour may influence staff causal attributions regarding challenging behaviour. Subsequently, these causal attributions may influence helping behaviours. This study investigated the relationship between attributions of control over…

Post-partum depression in the community: a qualitative study from rural South India.

PubMed

Savarimuthu, R J S; Ezhilarasu, P; Charles, H; Antonisamy, B; Kurian, S; Jacob, K S

2010-01-01

Post-partum depression, although heterogeneous, is often considered a medical disease when viewed from the biomedical perspective. However, recent reports from the Indian subcontinent have documented psychosocial causal factors. This study employed qualitative methodology in a representative sample of women in rural South India. Women in the post-partum period were assessed using the Tamil versions of the Short Explanatory Model Interview, the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a semi-structured interview to diagnose ICD 10 depression. Socio-demographic and clinical details were also recorded. Some 137 women were recruited and assessed, of these, 26.3% were diagnosed to have post-partum depression. The following factors were associated with post-partum depression after adjusting for age and education: age less than 20 or over 30 years, schooling less than five years, thoughts of aborting current pregnancy, unhappy marriage, physical abuse during current pregnancy and after childbirth, husband's use of alcohol, girl child delivered in the absence of living boys and a preference for a boy, low birth weight, and a family history of depression. Post-partum depression was also associated with an increased number of causal models of illness, a number of non-medical models, treatment models and non-medical treatment models. Many social and cultural factors have a major impact on post-partum depression. Post-partum depression, when viewed from a biomedical framework, fails to acknowledge the role of context in the production of emotional distress in the post-partum period.

Stress increases the risk of type 2 diabetes onset in women: A 12-year longitudinal study using causal modelling

PubMed Central

Oldmeadow, Christopher; Hure, Alexis; Luu, Judy; Loxton, Deborah

2017-01-01

Background Type 2 diabetes is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Modifiable risk factors have been found to contribute up to 60% of type 2 diabetes risk. However, type 2 diabetes continues to rise despite implementation of interventions based on traditional risk factors. There is a clear need to identify additional risk factors for chronic disease prevention. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between perceived stress and type 2 diabetes onset, and partition the estimates into direct and indirect effects. Methods and findings Women born in 1946–1951 (n = 12,844) completed surveys for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. The total causal effect was estimated using logistic regression and marginal structural modelling. Controlled direct effects were estimated through conditioning in the regression model. A graded association was found between perceived stress and all mediators in the multivariate time lag analyses. A significant association was found between hypertension, as well as physical activity and body mass index, and diabetes, but not smoking or diet quality. Moderate/high stress levels were associated with a 2.3-fold increase in the odds of diabetes three years later, for the total estimated effect. Results were only slightly attenuated when the direct and indirect effects of perceived stress on diabetes were partitioned, with the mediators only explaining 10–20% of the excess variation in diabetes. Conclusions Perceived stress is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The majority of the effect estimate of stress on diabetes risk is not mediated by the traditional risk factors of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, diet quality, and body mass index. This gives a new pathway for diabetes prevention trials and clinical practice. PMID:28222165

Etiology of depression comorbidity in combat-related PTSD: a review of the literature.

PubMed

Stander, Valerie A; Thomsen, Cynthia J; Highfill-McRoy, Robyn M

2014-03-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder is often diagnosed with other mental health problems, particularly depression. Although PTSD comorbidity has been associated with more severe and chronic symptomology, relationships among commonly co-occurring disorders are not well understood. The purpose of this study was to review the literature regarding the development of depression comorbid with combat-related PTSD among military personnel. We summarize results of commonly tested hypotheses about the etiology of PTSD and depression comorbidity, including (1) causal hypotheses, (2) common factor hypotheses, and (3) potential confounds. Evidence suggests that PTSD may be a causal risk factor for subsequent depression; however, associations are likely complex, involving bidirectional causality, common risk factors, and common vulnerabilities. The unique nature of PTSD-depression comorbidity in the context of military deployment and combat exposure is emphasized. Implications of our results for clinical practice and future research are discussed. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Causal factors of corporate crime in Taiwan: qualitative and quantitative findings.

PubMed

Mon, Wei-Teh

2002-04-01

Street crimes are a primary concern of most criminologists in Taiwan. In recent years, however, crimes committed by corporations have increased greatly in this country. Employing the empirical approach to collect data about causal factors of corporate crime, the research presented in this article is the first systematic empirical study concerning corporate crime in Taiwan. The research sample was selected from a corporation with a criminal record of pollution caused by the release of toxic chemicals into the environment and a corporation with no criminal record. Questionnaire survey and interviews of corporate employees and managers were conducted, and secondary data were collected from official agencies. This research indicated the causal factors of corporate crime as follows: the failure of government regulation, lack of corporate self-regulation, lack of public concern about corporate crime, corporate mechanistic structure, and the low self-control tendency of corporate managers.

Life Strain, Social Control, Social Learning, and Delinquency: The Effects of Gender, Age, and Family SES Among Chinese Adolescents.

PubMed

Bao, Wan-Ning; Haas, Ain; Xie, Yunping

2016-09-01

Very few studies have examined the pathways to delinquency and causal factors for demographic subgroups of adolescents in a different culture. This article explores the effects of gender, age, and family socioeconomic status (SES) in an integrated model of strain, social control, social learning, and delinquency among a sample of Chinese adolescents. ANOVA is used to check for significant differences between categories of demographic groups on the variables in the integrated model, and the differential effects of causal factors in the theoretical path models are examined. Further tests of interaction effects are conducted to compare path coefficients between "high-risk" youths (i.e., male, mid-teen, and low family SES adolescents) and other subgroups. The findings identified similar pathways to delinquency across subgroups and clarified the salience of causal factors for male, mid-teen, and low SES adolescents in a different cultural context. © The Author(s) 2015.

Investigating shared aetiology between type 2 diabetes and major depressive disorder in a population based cohort.

PubMed

Clarke, Toni-Kim; Obsteter, Jana; Hall, Lynsey S; Hayward, Caroline; Thomson, Pippa A; Smith, Blair H; Padmanabhan, Sandosh; Hocking, Lynne J; Deary, Ian J; Porteous, David J; McIntosh, Andrew M

2017-04-01

Type II diabetes (T2D) and major depressive disorder (MDD) are often co-morbid. The reasons for this co-morbidity are unclear. Some studies have highlighted the importance of environmental factors and a causal relationship between T2D and MDD has also been postulated. In the present study we set out to investigate the shared aetiology between T2D and MDD using Mendelian randomization in a population based sample, Generation Scotland: the Scottish Family Health Study (N = 21,516). Eleven SNPs found to be associated with T2D were tested for association with MDD and psychological distress (General Health Questionnaire scores). We also assessed causality and genetic overlap between T2D and MDD using polygenic risk scores (PRS) assembled from the largest available GWAS summary statistics to date. No single T2D risk SNP was associated with MDD in the MR analyses and we did not find consistent evidence of genetic overlap between MDD and T2D in the PRS analyses. Linkage disequilibrium score regression analyses supported these findings as no genetic correlation was observed between T2D and MDD (rG = 0.0278 (S.E. 0.11), P-value = 0.79). As suggested by previous studies, T2D and MDD covariance may be better explained by environmental factors. Future studies would benefit from analyses in larger cohorts where stratifying by sex and looking more closely at MDD cases demonstrating metabolic dysregulation is possible. © 2016 The Authors. American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors. American Journal of Medical Genetics Part B: Neuropsychiatric Genetics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Three Cs in measurement models: causal indicators, composite indicators, and covariates.

PubMed

Bollen, Kenneth A; Bauldry, Shawn

2011-09-01

In the last 2 decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that one can classify indicators into 2 categories: effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. We argue that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and 3 types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the "Three Cs"). Causal indicators have conceptual unity, and their effects on latent variables are structural. Covariates are not concept measures, but are variables to control to avoid bias in estimating the relations between measures and latent variables. Composite (formative) indicators form exact linear combinations of variables that need not share a concept. Their coefficients are weights rather than structural effects, and composites are a matter of convenience. The failure to distinguish the Three Cs has led to confusion and questions, such as, Are causal and formative indicators different names for the same indicator type? Should an equation with causal or formative indicators have an error term? Are the coefficients of causal indicators less stable than effect indicators? Distinguishing between causal and composite indicators and covariates goes a long way toward eliminating this confusion. We emphasize the key role that subject matter expertise plays in making these distinctions. We provide new guidelines for working with these variable types, including identification of models, scaling latent variables, parameter estimation, and validity assessment. A running empirical example on self-perceived health illustrates our major points.

Major depressive disorder and suicidality in early HIV infection and its association with risk factors and negative outcomes as seen in semi-urban and rural Uganda.

PubMed

Kinyanda, Eugene; Nakasujja, Noeline; Levin, Jonathan; Birabwa, Harriet; Mpango, Richard; Grosskurth, Heiner; Seedat, Soraya; Patel, Vikram

2017-04-01

There is a paucity of research into the psychiatric problems associated with early stage HIV clinical disease in sub-Saharan Africa. A cross sectional study was undertaken among 899 adult ART naïve persons in early stage HIV clinical disease (participants with CD4≥250 and who were at WHO clinical Stage I or II) attending a semi-urban and a rural clinic in Uganda. The prevalence of major depressive disorder in this study was 14.0% [95% CI 11.7-6.3%] while that of 'moderate to high risk for suicidality' was 2.8% [95% CI 1.7%; 3.9%]. Multivariable analyses found that factors in the socio-demographic, vulnerability/protective and stress (only for major depressive disorder) domains were significantly associated with both major depressive disorder and 'moderate to high risk for suicidality'. Major depressive disorder but not 'moderate to high risk for suicidality' was significantly associated with impaired psychosocial functioning, greater utilisation of health services and non-adherence to septrin/dasone. Neither major depressive disorder nor 'moderate to high risk for suicidality' was associated with CD4 counts, risky sexual behaviour nor with non-utilisation of condoms. The bidirectional nature of some of the relationships between the investigated psychiatric problems, risk factors and outcomes in this cross sectional study makes it difficult to elucidate the actual direction of causality. Early stage HIV clinical disease is associated with considerable major depressive disorder and 'moderate to high risk for suicidality'. Therefore there is a need to integrate mental health into HIV interventions that target early stage HIV disease. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Rehfuess, Eva A; Best, Nicky; Briggs, David J; Joffe, Mike

2013-12-06

Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings.Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce.

Re-Ranking Sequencing Variants in the Post-GWAS Era for Accurate Causal Variant Identification

PubMed Central

Faye, Laura L.; Machiela, Mitchell J.; Kraft, Peter; Bull, Shelley B.; Sun, Lei

2013-01-01

Next generation sequencing has dramatically increased our ability to localize disease-causing variants by providing base-pair level information at costs increasingly feasible for the large sample sizes required to detect complex-trait associations. Yet, identification of causal variants within an established region of association remains a challenge. Counter-intuitively, certain factors that increase power to detect an associated region can decrease power to localize the causal variant. First, combining GWAS with imputation or low coverage sequencing to achieve the large sample sizes required for high power can have the unintended effect of producing differential genotyping error among SNPs. This tends to bias the relative evidence for association toward better genotyped SNPs. Second, re-use of GWAS data for fine-mapping exploits previous findings to ensure genome-wide significance in GWAS-associated regions. However, using GWAS findings to inform fine-mapping analysis can bias evidence away from the causal SNP toward the tag SNP and SNPs in high LD with the tag. Together these factors can reduce power to localize the causal SNP by more than half. Other strategies commonly employed to increase power to detect association, namely increasing sample size and using higher density genotyping arrays, can, in certain common scenarios, actually exacerbate these effects and further decrease power to localize causal variants. We develop a re-ranking procedure that accounts for these adverse effects and substantially improves the accuracy of causal SNP identification, often doubling the probability that the causal SNP is top-ranked. Application to the NCI BPC3 aggressive prostate cancer GWAS with imputation meta-analysis identified a new top SNP at 2 of 3 associated loci and several additional possible causal SNPs at these loci that may have otherwise been overlooked. This method is simple to implement using R scripts provided on the author's website. PMID:23950724

Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Results Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings. Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Conclusions Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed following empirical testing. This approach is well-suited to dealing with complex systems, in particular where data are scarce. PMID:24314302

Causal Relationships Among Time Series of the Lange Bramke Catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aufgebauer, Britta; Hauhs, Michael; Bogner, Christina; Meesenburg, Henning; Lange, Holger

2016-04-01

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has recently been introduced by Sugihara et al. for the identification and quantification of causal relationships among ecosystem variables. In particular, the method allows to decide on the direction of causality; in some cases, the causality might be bidirectional, indicating a network structure. We extend this approach by introducing a method of surrogate data to obtain confidence intervals for CCM results. We then apply this method to time series from stream water chemistry. Specifically, we analyze a set of eight dissolved major ions from three different catchments belonging to the hydrological monitoring system at the Bramke valley in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Our results demonstrate the potentials and limits of CCM as a monitoring instrument in forestry and hydrology or as a tool to identify processes in ecosystem research. While some networks of causally linked ions can be associated with simple physical and chemical processes, other results illustrate peculiarities of the three studied catchments, which are explained in the context of their special history.

Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome and hypothyroidism - merely concurrence or causal association?

PubMed

Kuczyński, Wojciech; Gabryelska, Agata; Mokros, Łukasz; Białasiewicz, Piotr

2016-01-01

The prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS) ranges from 4 to 7% in men and from 2 to 5% in women. Its deleterious consequences such as traffic accidents, cardiovascular complications increasing morbidity and mortality, make it a major health problem. Apart from obesity (a major risk factor for OSAHS), hypothyroid patients are prone to reveal this phenotype. Although hypothyroidism seems an acknowledged risk factor for OSAHS, some authors report the lack of clinically relevant association. The argument partly depends on the increased prevalence of hypothyroidism in OSAHS patients, but the epidemiological data is limited and somehow inconsistent; even less is known about sub-clinical hypothyroidism in OSAHS patients. Even if frequency of overt and sub-clinical hypothyroidism in OSAHS patients is comparable to the general population, screening for it seems beneficial, as hormone replacement therapy may improve sleep disordered breathing. Unfortunately, this favorable outcome was found only in a few studies with limited number of patients with hypothyroidism. Yet, despite the lack of international guidelines and no large multicentre studies on the topic available, we think that TSH screening might prove beneficial in vast majority of OSAHS patients.

Causal Relation Analysis Tool of the Case Study in the Engineer Ethics Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, Yoshio; Morita, Keisuke; Yasui, Mitsukuni; Tanada, Ichirou; Fujiki, Hiroyuki; Aoyagi, Manabu

In engineering ethics education, the virtual experiencing of dilemmas is essential. Learning through the case study method is a particularly effective means. Many case studies are, however, difficult to deal with because they often include many complex causal relationships and social factors. It would thus be convenient if there were a tool that could analyze the factors of a case example and organize them into a hierarchical structure to get a better understanding of the whole picture. The tool that was developed applies a cause-and-effect matrix and simple graph theory. It analyzes the causal relationship between facts in a hierarchical structure and organizes complex phenomena. The effectiveness of this tool is shown by presenting an actual example.

Evaluating the impact of implementation factors on family-based prevention programming: methods for strengthening causal inference.

PubMed

Crowley, D Max; Coffman, Donna L; Feinberg, Mark E; Greenberg, Mark T; Spoth, Richard L

2014-04-01

Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then, we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large-scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program.

STAMP-Based HRA Considering Causality Within a Sociotechnical System: A Case of Minuteman III Missile Accident.

PubMed

Rong, Hao; Tian, Jin

2015-05-01

The study contributes to human reliability analysis (HRA) by proposing a method that focuses more on human error causality within a sociotechnical system, illustrating its rationality and feasibility by using a case of the Minuteman (MM) III missile accident. Due to the complexity and dynamics within a sociotechnical system, previous analyses of accidents involving human and organizational factors clearly demonstrated that the methods using a sequential accident model are inadequate to analyze human error within a sociotechnical system. System-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) was used to develop a universal framework of human error causal analysis. To elaborate the causal relationships and demonstrate the dynamics of human error, system dynamics (SD) modeling was conducted based on the framework. A total of 41 contributing factors, categorized into four types of human error, were identified through the STAMP-based analysis. All factors are related to a broad view of sociotechnical systems, and more comprehensive than the causation presented in the accident investigation report issued officially. Recommendations regarding both technical and managerial improvement for a lower risk of the accident are proposed. The interests of an interdisciplinary approach provide complementary support between system safety and human factors. The integrated method based on STAMP and SD model contributes to HRA effectively. The proposed method will be beneficial to HRA, risk assessment, and control of the MM III operating process, as well as other sociotechnical systems. © 2014, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

Does poor school performance cause later psychosocial problems among children in foster care? Evidence from national longitudinal registry data.

PubMed

Forsman, Hilma; Brännström, Lars; Vinnerljung, Bo; Hjern, Anders

2016-07-01

Research has shown that children in foster care are a high-risk group for adverse economic, social and health related outcomes in young adulthood. Children's poor school performance has been identified as a major risk factor for these poor later life outcomes. Aiming to support the design of effective intervention strategies, this study examines the hypothesized causal effect of foster children's poor school performance on subsequent psychosocial problems, here conceptualized as economic hardship, illicit drug use, and mental health problems, in young adulthood. Using the potential outcomes approach, longitudinal register data on more than 7500 Swedish foster children born 1973-1978 were analyzed by means of doubly robust treatment-effect estimators. The results show that poor school performance has a negative impact on later psychosocial problems net of observed background attributes and potential selection on unobservables, suggesting that the estimated effects allow for causal interpretations. Promotion of school performance may thus be a viable intervention path for policymakers and practitioners interested in improving foster children's overall life chances. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pathways From Bullying Perpetration, Victimization, and Bully Victimization to Suicidality Among School-Aged Youth: A Review of the Potential Mediators and a Call for Further Investigation.

PubMed

Hong, Jun Sung; Kral, Michael J; Sterzing, Paul R

2015-10-01

In the wake of several highly publicized adolescent suicides attributed to bullying victimization, national attention has been brought to bear on the profound public health problem of bullying. This article reviews the extant literature on the associations between bullying perpetration, victimization, and thoughts of or attempts at suicide and proposes five potential mediators, namely depression, anxiety, low self-esteem, loneliness, and hopelessness, that may explain this relationship. Numerous studies have found empirical support for the interrelations between internalizing behaviors and both bullying perpetration and victimization and suicide. We find that further longitudinal research needs to be conducted to more conclusively determine the role and causal ordering these various psychosocial factors may play in bullying perpetration, victimization, and suicide. Although the research literature implies causal directions among all these potential mediators, untangling the unique influence of bullying perpetration, victimization, and bully victimization on suicide and its mechanisms of action has major research and practice implications. © The Author(s) 2014.

Decoding the role of regulatory element polymorphisms in complex disease.

PubMed

Vockley, Christopher M; Barrera, Alejandro; Reddy, Timothy E

2017-04-01

Genetic variation in gene regulatory elements contributes to diverse human diseases, ranging from rare and severe developmental defects to common and complex diseases such as obesity and diabetes. Early examples of regulatory mechanisms of human diseases involve large chromosomal rearrangements that change the regulatory connections within the genome. Single nucleotide variants in regulatory elements can also contribute to disease, potentially via demonstrated associations with changes in transcription factor binding, enhancer activity, post-translational histone modifications, long-range enhancer-promoter interactions, or RNA polymerase recruitment. Establishing causality between non-coding genetic variants, gene regulation, and disease has recently become more feasible with advances in genome-editing and epigenome-editing technologies. As establishing causal regulatory mechanisms of diseases becomes routine, functional annotation of target genes is likely to emerge as a major bottleneck for translation into patient benefits. In this review, we discuss the history and recent advances in understanding the regulatory mechanisms of human disease, and new challenges likely to be encountered once establishing those mechanisms becomes rote. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Immediately modifiable risk factors attributable to colorectal cancer in Malaysia.

PubMed

Naing, Cho; Lai, Pei Kuan; Mak, Joon Wah

2017-08-04

This study aimed to estimate potential reductions in case incidence of colorectal cancer attributable to the modifiable risk factors such as alcohol consumption, overweight and physical inactivity amongst the Malaysian population. Gender specific population-attributable fractions (PAFs) for colorectal cancer in Malaysia were estimated for the three selected risk factors (physical inactivity, overweight, and alcohol consumptions). Exposure prevalence were sourced from a large-scale national representative survey. Risk estimates of the relationship between the exposure of interest and colorectal cancer were obtained from published meta-analyses. The overall PAF was then estimated, using the 2013 national cancer incidence data from the Malaysian Cancer Registry. Overall, the mean incidence rate for colorectal cancer in Malaysia from 2008 to 2013 was 21.3 per 100,000 population, with the mean age of 61.6 years (±12.7) and the majority were men (56.6%). Amongst 369 colorectal cancer cases in 2013, 40 cases (20 men, 20 women), 10 cases (9 men, 1 woman) or 20 cases (16 men,4 women) would be prevented, if they had done physical exercises, could reduce their body weight to normal level or avoided alcohol consumption, assuming that these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. It was estimated that 66 (17.8%;66/369) colorectal cancer cases (42 men, 24 women) who had all these three risk factors for the last 10 years would have been prevented, if they could control these three risk factors through effective preventive measures. Findings suggest that approximately 18% of colorectal cancer cases in Malaysia would be prevented through appropriate preventive measures such as doing regular physical exercises, reducing their body weight to normal level and avoiding alcohol consumption, if these factors are causally related to colorectal cancer. Scaling-up nationwide public health campaigns tailored to increase physical activity, controlling body weight within normal limits and avoid alcohol intake are recommended. Future studies with other site-specific cancers and additional risk factors are needed.

Statistical Evidence Suggests that Inattention Drives Hyperactivity/Impulsivity in Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder

PubMed Central

Sokolova, Elena; Groot, Perry; Claassen, Tom; van Hulzen, Kimm J.; Glennon, Jeffrey C.; Franke, Barbara

2016-01-01

Background Numerous factor analytic studies consistently support a distinction between two symptom domains of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity. Both dimensions show high internal consistency and moderate to strong correlations with each other. However, it is not clear what drives this strong correlation. The aim of this paper is to address this issue. Method We applied a sophisticated approach for causal discovery on three independent data sets of scores of the two ADHD dimensions in NeuroIMAGE (total N = 675), ADHD-200 (N = 245), and IMpACT (N = 164), assessed by different raters and instruments, and further used information on gender or a genetic risk haplotype. Results In all data sets we found strong statistical evidence for the same pattern: the clear dependence between hyperactivity/impulsivity symptom level and an established genetic factor (either gender or risk haplotype) vanishes when one conditions upon inattention symptom level. Under reasonable assumptions, e.g., that phenotypes do not cause genotypes, a causal model that is consistent with this pattern contains a causal path from inattention to hyperactivity/impulsivity. Conclusions The robust dependency cancellation observed in three different data sets suggests that inattention is a driving factor for hyperactivity/impulsivity. This causal hypothesis can be further validated in intervention studies. Our model suggests that interventions that affect inattention will also have an effect on the level of hyperactivity/impulsivity. On the other hand, interventions that affect hyperactivity/impulsivity would not change the level of inattention. This causal model may explain earlier findings on heritable factors causing ADHD reported in the study of twins with learning difficulties. PMID:27768717

Evaluating WAIS-IV structure through a different psychometric lens: structural causal model discovery as an alternative to confirmatory factor analysis.

PubMed

van Dijk, Marjolein J A M; Claassen, Tom; Suwartono, Christiany; van der Veld, William M; van der Heijden, Paul T; Hendriks, Marc P H

Since the publication of the WAIS-IV in the U.S. in 2008, efforts have been made to explore the structural validity by applying factor analysis to various samples. This study aims to achieve a more fine-grained understanding of the structure of the Dutch language version of the WAIS-IV (WAIS-IV-NL) by applying an alternative analysis based on causal modeling in addition to confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). The Bayesian Constraint-based Causal Discovery (BCCD) algorithm learns underlying network structures directly from data and assesses more complex structures than is possible with factor analysis. WAIS-IV-NL profiles of two clinical samples of 202 patients (i.e. patients with temporal lobe epilepsy and a mixed psychiatric outpatient group) were analyzed and contrasted with a matched control group (N = 202) selected from the Dutch standardization sample of the WAIS-IV-NL to investigate internal structure by means of CFA and BCCD. With CFA, the four-factor structure as proposed by Wechsler demonstrates acceptable fit in all three subsamples. However, BCCD revealed three consistent clusters (verbal comprehension, visual processing, and processing speed) in all three subsamples. The combination of Arithmetic and Digit Span as a coherent working memory factor could not be verified, and Matrix Reasoning appeared to be isolated. With BCCD, some discrepancies from the proposed four-factor structure are exemplified. Furthermore, these results fit CHC theory of intelligence more clearly. Consistent clustering patterns indicate these results are robust. The structural causal discovery approach may be helpful in better interpreting existing tests, the development of new tests, and aid in diagnostic instruments.

An Evaluation of Active Learning Causal Discovery Methods for Reverse-Engineering Local Causal Pathways of Gene Regulation

PubMed Central

Ma, Sisi; Kemmeren, Patrick; Aliferis, Constantin F.; Statnikov, Alexander

2016-01-01

Reverse-engineering of causal pathways that implicate diseases and vital cellular functions is a fundamental problem in biomedicine. Discovery of the local causal pathway of a target variable (that consists of its direct causes and direct effects) is essential for effective intervention and can facilitate accurate diagnosis and prognosis. Recent research has provided several active learning methods that can leverage passively observed high-throughput data to draft causal pathways and then refine the inferred relations with a limited number of experiments. The current study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the performance of active learning methods for local causal pathway discovery in real biological data. Specifically, 54 active learning methods/variants from 3 families of algorithms were applied for local causal pathways reconstruction of gene regulation for 5 transcription factors in S. cerevisiae. Four aspects of the methods’ performance were assessed, including adjacency discovery quality, edge orientation accuracy, complete pathway discovery quality, and experimental cost. The results of this study show that some methods provide significant performance benefits over others and therefore should be routinely used for local causal pathway discovery tasks. This study also demonstrates the feasibility of local causal pathway reconstruction in real biological systems with significant quality and low experimental cost. PMID:26939894

Causal Attributions for Success and Failure at University Examinations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Simon, J. G.; Feather, N. T.

1973-01-01

Male and female undergraduates rated their ability, amount of preparation, task difficulty, and their initial confidence (expectation) before they began an important examination. Subsequently they attributed causality for the examination outcome by rating the importance of factors involving ability, preparation, task difficulty, and luck as…

An integrative model of the impairments in insight in schizophrenia: emerging research on causal factors and treatments.

PubMed

Vohs, Jenifer L; George, Sunita; Leonhardt, Bethany L; Lysaker, Paul H

2016-10-01

Poor insight, or unawareness of some major aspect of mental illness, is a major barrier to wellness when it interferes with persons seeking out treatment or forming their own understanding of the challenges they face. One barrier to addressing impaired insight is the absence of a comprehensive model of how poor insight develops. To explore this issue we review how poor insight is the result of multiple phenomena which interfere with the construction of narrative accounts of psychiatric challenges, rather than a single social or biological cause. Expert commentary: We propose an integrative model of poor insight in schizophrenia which involves the interaction of symptoms, deficits in neurocognition, social cognition, metacognition, and stigma. Emerging treatments for poor insight including therapies which focus on the development of metacognition are discussed.

Variance of foot biomechanical parameters across age groups for the elderly people in Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deselnicu, D. C.; Vasilescu, A. M.; Militaru, G.

2017-10-01

The paper presents the results of a fieldwork study conducted in order to analyze major causal factors that influence the foot deformities and pathologies of elderly women in Romania. The study has an exploratory and descriptive nature and uses quantitative methodology. The sample consisted of 100 elderly women from Romania, ranging from 55 to over 75 years of age. The collected data was analyzed on multiple dimensions using a statistic analysis software program. The analysis of variance demonstrated significant differences across age groups in terms of several biomechanical parameters such as travel speed, toe off phase and support phase in the case of elderly women.

Geographic Population Structure in Epstein-Barr Virus Revealed by Comparative Genomics

PubMed Central

Chiara, Matteo; Manzari, Caterina; Lionetti, Claudia; Mechelli, Rosella; Anastasiadou, Eleni; Chiara Buscarinu, Maria; Ristori, Giovanni; Salvetti, Marco; Picardi, Ernesto; D’Erchia, Anna Maria; Pesole, Graziano; Horner, David S.

2016-01-01

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) latently infects the majority of the human population and is implicated as a causal or contributory factor in numerous diseases. We sequenced 27 complete EBV genomes from a cohort of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) patients and healthy controls from Italy, although no variants showed a statistically significant association with MS. Taking advantage of the availability of ∼130 EBV genomes with known geographical origins, we reveal a striking geographic distribution of EBV sub-populations with distinct allele frequency distributions. We discuss mechanisms that potentially explain these observations, and their implications for understanding the association of EBV with human disease. PMID:27635051

'Systemic Failures' and 'Human Error' in Canadian TSB Aviation Reports Between 1996 and 2002

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2004-01-01

This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the primary and contributory causes of aviation accidents in Canada between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a range of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Our results suggest that the majority of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error. A large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

Challenges to inferring causality from viral information dispersion in dynamic social networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ternovski, John

2014-06-01

Understanding the mechanism behind large-scale information dispersion through complex networks has important implications for a variety of industries ranging from cyber-security to public health. With the unprecedented availability of public data from online social networks (OSNs) and the low cost nature of most OSN outreach, randomized controlled experiments, the "gold standard" of causal inference methodologies, have been used with increasing regularity to study viral information dispersion. And while these studies have dramatically furthered our understanding of how information disseminates through social networks by isolating causal mechanisms, there are still major methodological concerns that need to be addressed in future research. This paper delineates why modern OSNs are markedly different from traditional sociological social networks and why these differences present unique challenges to experimentalists and data scientists. The dynamic nature of OSNs is particularly troublesome for researchers implementing experimental designs, so this paper identifies major sources of bias arising from network mutability and suggests strategies to circumvent and adjust for these biases. This paper also discusses the practical considerations of data quality and collection, which may adversely impact the efficiency of the estimator. The major experimental methodologies used in the current literature on virality are assessed at length, and their strengths and limits identified. Other, as-yetunsolved threats to the efficiency and unbiasedness of causal estimators--such as missing data--are also discussed. This paper integrates methodologies and learnings from a variety of fields under an experimental and data science framework in order to systematically consolidate and identify current methodological limitations of randomized controlled experiments conducted in OSNs.

Time-varying causal network of the Korean financial system based on firm-specific risk premiums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jae Wook; Ko, Bonggyun; Cho, Poongjin; Chang, Woojin

2016-09-01

The aim of this paper is to investigate the Korean financial system based on time-varying causal network. We discover many stylized facts by utilizing the firm-specific risk premiums for measuring the causality direction from a firm to firm. At first, we discover that the interconnectedness of causal network is affected by the outbreak of financial events; the co-movement of firm-specific risk premium is strengthened after each positive event, and vice versa. Secondly, we find that the major sector of the Korean financial system is the Depositories, and the financial reform in June-2011 achieves its purpose by weakening the power of risk-spillovers of Broker-Dealers. Thirdly, we identify that the causal network is a small-world network with scale-free topology where the power-law exponents of out-Degree and negative event are more significant than those of in-Degree and positive event. Lastly, we discuss that the current aspects of causal network are closely related to the long-term future scenario of the KOSPI Composite index where the direction and stability are significantly affected by the power of risk-spillovers and the power-law exponents of degree distributions, respectively.

Three Cs in Measurement Models: Causal Indicators, Composite Indicators, and Covariates

PubMed Central

Bollen, Kenneth A.; Bauldry, Shawn

2013-01-01

In the last two decades attention to causal (and formative) indicators has grown. Accompanying this growth has been the belief that we can classify indicators into two categories, effect (reflective) indicators and causal (formative) indicators. This paper argues that the dichotomous view is too simple. Instead, there are effect indicators and three types of variables on which a latent variable depends: causal indicators, composite (formative) indicators, and covariates (the “three Cs”). Causal indicators have conceptual unity and their effects on latent variables are structural. Covariates are not concept measures, but are variables to control to avoid bias in estimating the relations between measures and latent variable(s). Composite (formative) indicators form exact linear combinations of variables that need not share a concept. Their coefficients are weights rather than structural effects and composites are a matter of convenience. The failure to distinguish the “three Cs” has led to confusion and questions such as: are causal and formative indicators different names for the same indicator type? Should an equation with causal or formative indicators have an error term? Are the coefficients of causal indicators less stable than effect indicators? Distinguishing between causal and composite indicators and covariates goes a long way toward eliminating this confusion. We emphasize the key role that subject matter expertise plays in making these distinctions. We provide new guidelines for working with these variable types, including identification of models, scaling latent variables, parameter estimation, and validity assessment. A running empirical example on self-perceived health illustrates our major points. PMID:21767021

Principal Stratification — a Goal or a Tool?

PubMed Central

Pearl, Judea

2011-01-01

Principal stratification has recently become a popular tool to address certain causal inference questions, particularly in dealing with post-randomization factors in randomized trials. Here, we analyze the conceptual basis for this framework and invite response to clarify the value of principal stratification in estimating causal effects of interest. PMID:21556288

Energy demand, energy substitution and economic growth : Evidence from developed and developing countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abd Aziz, Azlina

This thesis contributes to the literature on energy demand in three ways. Firstly, it examines the major determinants of energy demand using a panel of 23 developed countries and 16 developing countries during 1978 to 2003. Secondly, it examines the demand for energy in the industrial sector and the extent of inter-fuel substitution, as well as substitution between energy and non-energy inputs, using data from 5 advanced countries and 5 energy producer's developing countries. Third, the thesis investigates empirically the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for these groups of countries over a 26-year period. The empirical results of this study confirm the majority of the findings in energy demand analysis. Income and price have shown to be important determinants for energy consumption in both developed and developing countries. Moreover, both economic structure and technical progress appear to exert significant impacts on energy consumption. Income has a positive impact on energy demand and the effect is larger in developing countries. In both developed and developing countries, price has a negative impact but these effects are larger in developed countries than in developing countries. The share of industry in GDP is positive and has a greater impact on energy demand in developing countries, whereas technological progress is found to be energy using in developed countries and energy saving in developing countries. With respect to the analysis of inter-factor and inter-fuel substitution in industrial energy demand, the results provide evidence for substitution possibilities between factor inputs and fuels. Substitutability is observed between capital and energy, capital and labour and labour and energy. These findings confirm previous evidence that production technologies in these countries allow flexibility in the capital-energy, capital-labour and labour-energy mix. In the energy sub-model, the elasticities of substitution show that large substitution took place from petroleum to coal, natural gas and especially to electricity. In addition, the evidence for significant inter-fuel substitution between coal and natural gas implies that there is a possibility of replacing the use of coal with natural gas in the industrial sector. The existence of moderate input substitution suggests that there is some flexibility in energy policy options and energy utilization. Finally, the empirical evidence presented in this study suggests that the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth varies substantially across countries. There is a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption in 12 developed countries and in 5 developing countries. A unidirectional causality from energy to GDP exists in Netherlands and bidirectional causality exists in Slovak Republic.

[Family environment risk factors of depression in adolescence].

PubMed

Greszta, Elzbieta

2006-01-01

General psychosocial theories of developmental psychopathology assert that family environment plays a significant role in forming both adaptive and maladaptive functioning of children. Also virtually all theories of depression assert that faulty parent-child relationships play a major role in the aetiology of this disorder. According these theoretical formulations familial risk factors have been the focus of most research on depression in adolescence. Several studies have shown that insecure attachment and parenting characterized by coldness, rejection, harsh discipline and unsupportive behaviour is positively related to adolescent depressive symptoms. Some research indicates that authoritative parenting, conceptualized as a composite of warmth, accept-involvement, firm control, and democratic discipline, is associated with the least depressive symptoms among adolescents. Pathogenetic factors within the family environment, such as parental depression, changes of family structure, violence or neglect, can also contribute to depression in adolescence. A causal relationship between anomalous parenting and depression is probably the interplay among genetic, cognitive, emotional, interpersonal and family environmental factors.

A retrospective study on the incidences of adverse drug events and analysis of the contributing trigger factors

PubMed Central

Sam, Aaseer Thamby; Lian Jessica, Looi Li; Parasuraman, Subramani

2015-01-01

Objectives: To retrospectively determine the extent and types of adverse drug events (ADEs) from the patient cases sheets and identify the contributing factors of medication errors. To assess causality and severity using the World Health Organization (WHO) probability scale and Hartwig's scale, respectively. Methods: Hundred patient case sheets were randomly selected, modified version of the Institute for Healthcare Improvement (IHI) Global Trigger Tool was utilized to identify the ADEs; causality and severity were calculated utilizing the WHO probability scale and Hartwig's severity assessment scale, respectively. Results: In total, 153 adverse events (AEs) were identified using the IHI Global Trigger Tool. Majority of the AEs are due to medication errors (46.41%) followed by 60 adverse drug reactions (ADRs), 15 therapeutic failure incidents, and 7 over-dose cases. Out of the 153 AEs, 60 are due to ADRs such as rashes, nausea, and vomiting. Therapeutic failure contributes 9.80% of the AEs, while overdose contributes to 4.58% of the total 153 AEs. Using the trigger tools, we were able to detect 45 positive triggers in 36 patient records. Among it, 19 AEs were identified in 15 patient records. The percentage of AE/100 patients is 17%. The average ADEs/1000 doses is 2.03% (calculated). Conclusion: The IHI Global Trigger Tool is an effective method to aid provisionally-registered pharmacists to identify ADEs quicker. PMID:25767366

The nature and causes of the global water crisis: Syndromes from a meta-analysis of coupled human-water studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivasan, V.; Lambin, E. F.; Gorelick, S. M.; Thompson, B. H.; Rozelle, S.

2012-10-01

Freshwater scarcity has been cited as the major crisis of the 21st century, but it is surprisingly hard to describe the nature of the global water crisis. We conducted a meta-analysis of 22 coupled human-water system case studies, using qualitative comparison analysis (QCA) to identify water resource system outcomes and the factors that drive them. The cases exhibited different outcomes for human wellbeing that could be grouped into a six "syndromes": groundwater depletion, ecological destruction, drought-driven conflicts, unmet subsistence needs, resource capture by elite, and water reallocation to nature. For syndromes that were not successful adaptations, three characteristics gave cause for concern: (1) unsustainability—a decline in the water stock or ecosystem function that could result in a long-term steep decline in future human wellbeing; (2) vulnerability—high variability in water resource availability combined with inadequate coping capacity, leading to temporary drops in human wellbeing; (3) chronic scarcity—persistent inadequate access and hence low conditions of human wellbeing. All syndromes could be explained by a limited set of causal factors that fell into four categories: demand changes, supply changes, governance systems, and infrastructure/technology. By considering basins as members of syndrome classes and tracing common causal pathways of water crises, water resource analysts and planners might develop improved water policies aimed at reducing vulnerability, inequity, and unsustainability of freshwater systems.

Combining Human and Machine Intelligence to Derive Agents' Behavioral Rules for Groundwater Irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Y.; Quinn, C.; Cai, X.

2015-12-01

One major challenge of agent-based modeling is to derive agents' behavioral rules due to behavioral uncertainty and data scarcity. This study proposes a new approach to combine a data-driven modeling based on the directed information (i.e., machine intelligence) with expert domain knowledge (i.e., human intelligence) to derive the behavioral rules of agents considering behavioral uncertainty. A directed information graph algorithm is applied to identifying the causal relationships between agents' decisions (i.e., groundwater irrigation depth) and time-series of environmental, socio-economical and institutional factors. A case study is conducted for the High Plains aquifer hydrological observatory (HO) area, U.S. Preliminary results show that four factors, corn price (CP), underlying groundwater level (GWL), monthly mean temperature (T) and precipitation (P) have causal influences on agents' decisions on groundwater irrigation depth (GWID) to various extents. Based on the similarity of the directed information graph for each agent, five clusters of graphs are further identified to represent all the agents' behaviors in the study area as shown in Figure 1. Using these five representative graphs, agents' monthly optimal groundwater pumping rates are derived through the probabilistic inference. Such data-driven relationships and probabilistic quantifications are then coupled with a physically-based groundwater model to investigate the interactions between agents' pumping behaviors and the underlying groundwater system in the context of coupled human and natural systems.

GIS and statistical analysis for landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancini, F.; Ceppi, C.; Ritrovato, G.

2010-09-01

This study focuses on landslide susceptibility mapping in the Daunia area (Apulian Apennines, Italy) and achieves this by using a multivariate statistical method and data processing in a Geographical Information System (GIS). The Logistic Regression (hereafter LR) method was chosen to produce a susceptibility map over an area of 130 000 ha where small settlements are historically threatened by landslide phenomena. By means of LR analysis, the tendency to landslide occurrences was, therefore, assessed by relating a landslide inventory (dependent variable) to a series of causal factors (independent variables) which were managed in the GIS, while the statistical analyses were performed by means of the SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) software. The LR analysis produced a reliable susceptibility map of the investigated area and the probability level of landslide occurrence was ranked in four classes. The overall performance achieved by the LR analysis was assessed by local comparison between the expected susceptibility and an independent dataset extrapolated from the landslide inventory. Of the samples classified as susceptible to landslide occurrences, 85% correspond to areas where landslide phenomena have actually occurred. In addition, the consideration of the regression coefficients provided by the analysis demonstrated that a major role is played by the "land cover" and "lithology" causal factors in determining the occurrence and distribution of landslide phenomena in the Apulian Apennines.

Flood regimes in a changing world: What do we know?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloeschl, G.

2015-12-01

There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. In this presentation I will argue that a fresh look is needed at the flood change problem in terms of the causal factors including river training, land use changes and climate variability. Analysing spatial patterns of dynamic flood characteristics helps learn form the rich diversity of flood processes across the landscape. I will present a number of examples across Europe to illustrate the range of flood generation processes and the causal factors of changes in the flood regime. On the basis of these examples, I will demonstrate how comparative hydrology can assist in learning from the differences of flood characteristics between catchments both for present and future conditions. Focus on the interactions of the natural and human water system will be instrumental in making meaningful statements about future floods in a changing world. References Hall et al. (2014) Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: A state of the art assessment. Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sc., 18, 2735-2772. Blöschl et al. (2015) Increasing river floods: fiction or reality? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079

How contrast situations affect the assignment of causality in symmetric physical settings.

PubMed

Beller, Sieghard; Bender, Andrea

2014-01-01

In determining the prime cause of a physical event, people often weight one of two entities in a symmetric physical relation as more important for bringing about the causal effect than the other. In a broad survey (Bender and Beller, 2011), we documented such weighting effects for different kinds of physical events and found that their direction and strength depended on a variety of factors. Here, we focus on one of those: adding a contrast situation that-while being formally irrelevant-foregrounds one of the factors and thus frames the task in a specific way. In two experiments, we generalize and validate our previous findings by using different stimulus material (in Experiment 1), by applying a different response format to elicit causal assignments, an analog rating scale instead of a forced-choice decision (in Experiment 2), and by eliciting explanations for the physical events in question (in both Experiments). The results generally confirm the contrast effects for both response formats; however, the effects were more pronounced with the force-choice format than with the rating format. People tended to refer to the given contrast in their explanations, which validates our manipulation. Finally, people's causal assignments are reflected in the type of explanation given in that contrast and property explanations were associated with biased causal assignments, whereas relational explanations were associated with unbiased assignments. In the discussion, we pick up the normative questions of whether or not these contrast effects constitute a bias in causal reasoning.

Causality in cancer research: a journey through models in molecular epidemiology and their philosophical interpretation.

PubMed

Vineis, Paolo; Illari, Phyllis; Russo, Federica

2017-01-01

In the last decades, Systems Biology (including cancer research) has been driven by technology, statistical modelling and bioinformatics. In this paper we try to bring biological and philosophical thinking back. We thus aim at making different traditions of thought compatible: (a) causality in epidemiology and in philosophical theorizing-notably, the "sufficient-component-cause framework" and the "mark transmission" approach; (b) new acquisitions about disease pathogenesis, e.g. the "branched model" in cancer, and the role of biomarkers in this process; (c) the burgeoning of omics research, with a large number of "signals" and of associations that need to be interpreted. In the paper we summarize first the current views on carcinogenesis, and then explore the relevance of current philosophical interpretations of "cancer causes". We try to offer a unifying framework to incorporate biomarkers and omic data into causal models, referring to a position called "evidential pluralism". According to this view, causal reasoning is based on both "evidence of difference-making" (e.g. associations) and on "evidence of underlying biological mechanisms". We conceptualize the way scientists detect and trace signals in terms of information transmission , which is a generalization of the mark transmission theory developed by philosopher Wesley Salmon. Our approach is capable of helping us conceptualize how heterogeneous factors such as micro and macro-biological and psycho-social-are causally linked. This is important not only to understand cancer etiology, but also to design public health policies that target the right causal factors at the macro-level.

Aircraft Loss of Control Causal Factors and Mitigation Challenges

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, Steven R.

2010-01-01

Loss of control is the leading cause of jet fatalities worldwide. Aside from their frequency of occurrence, accidents resulting from loss of aircraft control seize the public s attention by yielding a large number of fatalities in a single event. In response to the rising threat to aviation safety, the NASA Aviation Safety Program has conducted a study of the loss of control problem. This study gathered four types of information pertaining to loss of control accidents: (1) statistical data; (2) individual accident reports that cite loss of control as a contributing factor; (3) previous meta-analyses of loss of control accidents; and (4) inputs solicited from aircraft manufacturers, air carriers, researchers, and other industry stakeholders. Using these information resources, the study team identified the causal factors that were cited in the greatest number of loss of control accidents, and which were emphasized most by industry stakeholders. This report describes the study approach, the key causal factors for aircraft loss of control, and recommended mitigation strategies to make near-term impacts, mid-term impacts, and Next Generation Air Transportation System impacts on the loss of control accident statistics

Mendelian randomisation in type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease.

PubMed

Frayling, Timothy M; Stoneman, Charli E

2018-06-20

Type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension are associated with anthropometric and biomarker traits, including waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose and insulin levels. Clinical trials, for example of weight-loss interventions, show these factors are causal, but lifelong impact of subtle changes in body mass index and body fat distribution are less clear. The use of human genetics can quantify the causal effects of long-term exposure to subtle changes of modifiable risk factors. Mendelian randomisation (MR) uses human genetic variants associated with the risk factor to quantify the relationship between risk factor and disease outcome. The last two years have seen an increase in the number of MR studies investigating the relationship between anthropometric traits and metabolic diseases. This review provides an overview of these recent MR studies in relation to type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension. MR provides evidence for causal associations of waist-to-hip-ratio, body mass index and altered glucose levels with type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and hypertension. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Who deserves health care? The effects of causal attributions and group cues on public attitudes about responsibility for health care costs.

PubMed

Gollust, Sarah E; Lynch, Julia

2011-12-01

This research investigates the impact of cues about ascriptive group characteristics (race, class, gender) and the causes of ill health (health behaviors, inborn biological traits, social systemic factors) on beliefs about who deserves society's help in paying for the costs of medical treatment. Drawing on data from three original vignette experiments embedded in a nationally representative survey of American adults, we find that respondents are reluctant to blame or deny societal support in response to explicit cues about racial attributes--but equally explicit cues about the causal impact of individual behaviors on health have large effects on expressed attitudes. Across all three experiments, a focus on individual behavioral causes of illness is associated with increased support for individual responsibility for health care costs and lower support for government-financed health insurance. Beliefs about social groups and causal attributions are, however, tightly intertwined. We find that when groups suffering ill health are defined in racial, class, or gender terms, Americans differ in their attribution of health disparities to individual behaviors versus biological or systemic factors. Because causal attributions also affect health policy opinions, varying patterns of causal attribution may reinforce group stereotypes and undermine support for universal access to health care.

Interactions among poverty, gender, and health systems affect women's participation in services to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child: A causal loop analysis.

PubMed

Yourkavitch, Jennifer; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen; Flax, Valerie L; Okello, Elialilia S; Kadzandira, John; Katahoire, Anne Ruhweza; Munthali, Alister C; Thomas, James C

2018-01-01

Retention in care remains an important issue for prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programs according to WHO guidelines, formerly called the "Option B+" approach. The objective of this study was to examine how poverty, gender, and health system factors interact to influence women's participation in PMTCT services. We used qualitative research, literature, and hypothesized variable connections to diagram causes and effects in causal loop models. We found that many factors, including antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, service design and quality, stigma, disclosure, spouse/partner influence, decision-making autonomy, and knowledge about PMTCT, influence psychosocial health, which in turn affects women's participation in PMTCT services. Thus, interventions to improve psychosocial health need to address many factors to be successful. We also found that the design of PMTCT services, a modifiable factor, is important because it affects several other factors. We identified 66 feedback loops that may contribute to policy resistance-that is, a policy's failure to have its intended effect. Our findings point to the need for a multipronged intervention to encourage women's continued participation in PMTCT services and for longitudinal research to quantify and test our causal loop model.

Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications.

PubMed

Ramos, Antônio M T; Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Poveda, Germán; Goswami, Bedartha; Macau, Elbert E N; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert

2017-05-01

Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Here we propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.

Recurrence measure of conditional dependence and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Antônio M. T.; Builes-Jaramillo, Alejandro; Poveda, Germán; Goswami, Bedartha; Macau, Elbert E. N.; Kurths, Jürgen; Marwan, Norbert

2017-05-01

Identifying causal relations from observational data sets has posed great challenges in data-driven causality inference studies. One of the successful approaches to detect direct coupling in the information theory framework is transfer entropy. However, the core of entropy-based tools lies on the probability estimation of the underlying variables. Here we propose a data-driven approach for causality inference that incorporates recurrence plot features into the framework of information theory. We define it as the recurrence measure of conditional dependence (RMCD), and we present some applications. The RMCD quantifies the causal dependence between two processes based on joint recurrence patterns between the past of the possible driver and present of the potentially driven, excepting the contribution of the contemporaneous past of the driven variable. Finally, it can unveil the time scale of the influence of the sea-surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean on the precipitation in the Amazonia during recent major droughts.

Burnout in Relation to Specific Contributing Factors and Health Outcomes among Nurses: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Khamisa, Natasha; Peltzer, Karl; Oldenburg, Brian

2013-01-01

Nurses have been found to experience higher levels of stress-related burnout compared to other health care professionals. Despite studies showing that both job satisfaction and burnout are effects of exposure to stressful working environments, leading to poor health among nurses, little is known about the causal nature and direction of these relationships. The aim of this systematic review is to identify published research that has formally investigated relationships between these variables. Six databases (including CINAHL, COCHRANE, EMBASE, MEDLINE, PROQUEST and PsyINFO) were searched for combinations of keywords, a manual search was conducted and an independent reviewer was asked to cross validate all the electronically identified articles. Of the eighty five articles that were identified from these databases, twenty one articles were excluded based on exclusion criteria; hence, a total of seventy articles were included in the study sample. The majority of identified studies exploring two and three way relationships (n = 63) were conducted in developed countries. Existing research includes predominantly cross-sectional studies (n = 68) with only a few longitudinal studies (n = 2); hence, the evidence base for causality is still very limited. Despite minimal availability of research concerning the small number of studies to investigate the relationships between work-related stress, burnout, job satisfaction and the general health of nurses, this review has identified some contradictory evidence for the role of job satisfaction. This emphasizes the need for further research towards understanding causality. PMID:23727902

The Global Drivers of Photosynthesis and Light Use Efficiency Seasonality: A Granger Frequency Causality Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, J.; Lee, J. E.; Gentine, P.; Berry, J. A.; Konings, A. G.

2015-12-01

hotosynthesis and light use efficiency (LUE) are major factors in the evolution of the continental carbon cycle due to their contribution to gross primary production (GPP). However, while the drivers of photosynthesis and LUE on a plant or canopy scale can often be identified, significant uncertainties exist when modeling these on a global scale. This is due to sparse observations in regions such as the tropics and the lack of a direct global observation dataset. Although others have attempted to address this issue using correlations (Beer, 2010) or calculating GPP from vegetation indices (Running, 2004), in this study we take a new approach. We combine the statistical method of Granger frequency causality and partial Granger frequency causality with remote sensing data products (including sun-induced fluorescence used as a proxy for GPP) to determine the main environmental drivers of GPP across the globe. References:Beer, C., M. Reichstein, E. Tomelleri, P. Ciais, M. Jung, N. Carvalhais, C. Ro¨denbeck, M. Altaf Arain, D. Baldocchi, G. B. Bonan, A. Bondeau, A. Cescatti, G. Lasslop, A. Lindroth, M. Lomas, S. Luyssaert, H. Margolis, K. W. Oleson, O. Roupsard, E. Veenendaal, N. Viovy, C. Williams, I. Woodward, and D. Papale, 2010: Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate. doi: 10.1126/science.1184984. Running, S.W., Nemani, R. R., Heinsch, F. A., Zhao, M., Reeves, M., Hashimoto, H., 2004. A Continuous Satellite Derived Measure of Global Terrestrial Primary Production. BioScience 54(6), 547-560.

Examination of Icing Induced Loss of Control and Its Mitigations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reehorst, Andrew L.; Addy, Harold E., Jr.; Colantonio, Renato O.

2010-01-01

Factors external to the aircraft are often a significant causal factor in loss of control (LOC) accidents. In today s aviation world, very few accidents stem from a single cause and typically have a number of causal factors that culminate in a LOC accident. Very often the "trigger" that initiates an accident sequence is an external environment factor. In a recent NASA statistical analysis of LOC accidents, aircraft icing was shown to be the most common external environmental LOC causal factor for scheduled operations. When investigating LOC accident or incidents aircraft icing causal factors can be categorized into groups of 1) in-flight encounter with super-cooled liquid water clouds, 2) take-off with ice contamination, or 3) in-flight encounter with high concentrations of ice crystals. As with other flight hazards, icing induced LOC accidents can be prevented through avoidance, detection, and recovery mitigations. For icing hazards, avoidance can take the form of avoiding flight into icing conditions or avoiding the hazard of icing by making the aircraft tolerant to icing conditions. Icing detection mitigations can take the form of detecting icing conditions or detecting early performance degradation caused by icing. Recovery from icing induced LOC requires flight crew or automated systems capable of accounting for reduced aircraft performance and degraded control authority during the recovery maneuvers. In this report we review the icing induced LOC accident mitigations defined in a recent LOC study and for each mitigation describe a research topic required to enable or strengthen the mitigation. Many of these research topics are already included in ongoing or planned NASA icing research activities or are being addressed by members of the icing research community. These research activities are described and the status of the ongoing or planned research to address the technology needs is discussed

Evaluating the Impact of Implementation Factors on Family-Based Prevention Programming: Methods for Strengthening Causal Inference

PubMed Central

Crowley, D. Max; Coffman, Donna L.; Feinberg, Mark; Greenberg, Mark; Spoth, Richard

2013-01-01

Despite growing recognition of the important role implementation plays in successful prevention efforts, relatively little work has sought to demonstrate a causal relationship between implementation factors and participant outcomes. In turn, failure to explore the implementation-to-outcome link limits our understanding of the mechanisms essential to successful programming. This gap is partially due to the inability of current methodological procedures within prevention science to account for the multitude of confounders responsible for variation in implementation factors (i.e., selection bias). The current paper illustrates how propensity and marginal structural models can be used to improve causal inferences involving implementation factors not easily randomized (e.g., participant attendance). We first present analytic steps for simultaneously evaluating the impact of multiple implementation factors on prevention program outcome. Then we demonstrate this approach for evaluating the impact of enrollment and attendance in a family program, over and above the impact of a school-based program, within PROSPER, a large scale real-world prevention trial. Findings illustrate the capacity of this approach to successfully account for confounders that influence enrollment and attendance, thereby more accurately representing true causal relations. For instance, after accounting for selection bias, we observed a 5% reduction in the prevalence of 11th grade underage drinking for those who chose to receive a family program and school program compared to those who received only the school program. Further, we detected a 7% reduction in underage drinking for those with high attendance in the family program. PMID:23430578

Dating violence and suicidal behavior in adolescents.

PubMed

Holmes, Kristin; Sher, Leo

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to assess the possible consequences of adolescent physical, emotional and sexual dating violence through a review of the literature on the topic. An electronic search of major biomedical bibliographic databases (Pubmed, ISI, PsycINFO) was used to retrieve articles providing information on the prevalence rates, risk factors, associated consequences and possible preventive measures for adolescent dating violence across different populations. Currently, there have been few longitudinal studies conducted to identify potential risk factors for entering a violent dating relationship in adolescence. Risky behaviors such as early sexual intercourse may predispose someone for victimization. Dating violence itself is also a predictor of future dating violence. Adolescent dating violence was associated with an increase in other violence-related behaviors, substance use, depression, poorer educational outcomes, posttraumatic stress, unhealthy weight control and risky sexual behavior. The association between adolescent dating violence and an increase in suicidal behavior is a major public health concern. Future research should focus on longitudinal studies so that a causal relationship between dating violence and suicidality may be better understood.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

PubMed

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Parametric and nonparametric Granger causality testing: Linkages between international stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Gooijer, Jan G.; Sivarajasingham, Selliah

2008-04-01

This study investigates long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among eleven stock markets, six industrialized markets and five emerging markets of South-East Asia. We cover the period 1987-2006, taking into account the on-set of the Asian financial crisis of 1997. We first apply a test for the presence of general nonlinearity in vector time series. Substantial differences exist between the pre- and post-crisis period in terms of the total number of significant nonlinear relationships. We then examine both periods, using a new nonparametric test for Granger noncausality and the conventional parametric Granger noncausality test. One major finding is that the Asian stock markets have become more internationally integrated after the Asian financial crisis. An exception is the Sri Lankan market with almost no significant long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages with other markets. To ensure that any causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VAR filtered residuals and VAR filtered squared residuals for the post-crisis sample. We find quite a few remaining significant bi- and uni-directional causal nonlinear relationships in these series. Finally, after filtering the VAR-residuals with GARCH-BEKK models, we show that the nonparametric test statistics are substantially smaller in both magnitude and statistical significance than those before filtering. This indicates that nonlinear causality can, to a large extent, be explained by simple volatility effects.

Students' reasons for preferring teleological explanations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trommler, Friederike; Gresch, Helge; Hammann, Marcus

2018-01-01

The teleological bias, a major learning obstacle, involves explaining biological phenomena in terms of purposes and goals. To probe the teleological bias, researchers have used acceptance judgement tasks and preference judgement tasks. In the present study, such tasks were used with German high school students (N = 353) for 10 phenomena from human biology, that were explained both teleologically and causally. A sub-sample (n = 26) was interviewed about the reasons for their preferences. The results showed that the students favoured teleological explanations over causal explanations. Although the students explained their preference judgements etiologically (i.e. teleologically and causally), they also referred to a wide range of non-etiological criteria (i.e. familiarity, complexity, relevance and five more criteria). When elaborating on their preference for causal explanations, the students often focused not on the causality of the phenomenon, but on mechanisms whose complexity they found attractive. When explaining their preference for teleological explanations, they often focused not teleologically on purposes and goals, but rather on functions, which they found familiar and relevant. Generally, students' preference judgements rarely allowed for making inferences about causal reasoning and teleological reasoning, an issue that is controversial in the literature. Given that students were largely unaware of causality and teleology, their attention must be directed towards distinguishing between etiological and non-etiological reasoning. Implications for educational practice as well as for future research are discussed.

Domain-specific perceptual causality in children depends on the spatio-temporal configuration, not motion onset

PubMed Central

Schlottmann, Anne; Cole, Katy; Watts, Rhianna; White, Marina

2013-01-01

Humans, even babies, perceive causality when one shape moves briefly and linearly after another. Motion timing is crucial in this and causal impressions disappear with short delays between motions. However, the role of temporal information is more complex: it is both a cue to causality and a factor that constrains processing. It affects ability to distinguish causality from non-causality, and social from mechanical causality. Here we study both issues with 3- to 7-year-olds and adults who saw two computer-animated squares and chose if a picture of mechanical, social or non-causality fit each event best. Prior work fit with the standard view that early in development, the distinction between the social and physical domains depends mainly on whether or not the agents make contact, and that this reflects concern with domain-specific motion onset, in particular, whether the motion is self-initiated or not. The present experiments challenge both parts of this position. In Experiments 1 and 2, we showed that not just spatial, but also animacy and temporal information affect how children distinguish between physical and social causality. In Experiments 3 and 4 we showed that children do not seem to use spatio-temporal information in perceptual causality to make inferences about self- or other-initiated motion onset. Overall, spatial contact may be developmentally primary in domain-specific perceptual causality in that it is processed easily and is dominant over competing cues, but it is not the only cue used early on and it is not used to infer motion onset. Instead, domain-specific causal impressions may be automatic reactions to specific perceptual configurations, with a complex role for temporal information. PMID:23874308

The Teacher, the Physician and the Person: Exploring Causal Connections between Teaching Performance and Role Model Types Using Directed Acyclic Graphs

PubMed Central

Boerebach, Benjamin C. M.; Lombarts, Kiki M. J. M. H.; Scherpbier, Albert J. J.; Arah, Onyebuchi A.

2013-01-01

Background In fledgling areas of research, evidence supporting causal assumptions is often scarce due to the small number of empirical studies conducted. In many studies it remains unclear what impact explicit and implicit causal assumptions have on the research findings; only the primary assumptions of the researchers are often presented. This is particularly true for research on the effect of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling. Therefore, there is a need for robust frameworks and methods for transparent formal presentation of the underlying causal assumptions used in assessing the causal effects of teaching performance on role modeling. This study explores the effects of different (plausible) causal assumptions on research outcomes. Methods This study revisits a previously published study about the influence of faculty’s teaching performance on their role modeling (as teacher-supervisor, physician and person). We drew eight directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to visually represent different plausible causal relationships between the variables under study. These DAGs were subsequently translated into corresponding statistical models, and regression analyses were performed to estimate the associations between teaching performance and role modeling. Results The different causal models were compatible with major differences in the magnitude of the relationship between faculty’s teaching performance and their role modeling. Odds ratios for the associations between teaching performance and the three role model types ranged from 31.1 to 73.6 for the teacher-supervisor role, from 3.7 to 15.5 for the physician role, and from 2.8 to 13.8 for the person role. Conclusions Different sets of assumptions about causal relationships in role modeling research can be visually depicted using DAGs, which are then used to guide both statistical analysis and interpretation of results. Since study conclusions can be sensitive to different causal assumptions, results should be interpreted in the light of causal assumptions made in each study. PMID:23936020

Uric acid in metabolic syndrome: From an innocent bystander to a central player

PubMed Central

Kanbay, Mehmet; Jensen, Thomas; Solak, Yalcin; Le, Myphuong; Roncal-Jimenez, Carlos; Rivard, Chris; Lanaspa, Miguel A.; Nakagawa, Takahiko; Johnson, Richard J.

2016-01-01

Uric acid, once viewed as an inert metabolic end-product of purine metabolism, has been recently incriminated in a number of chronic disease states, including hypertension, metabolic syndrome, diabetes, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and chronic kidney disease. Several experimental and clinical studies support a role for uric acid as a contributory causal factor in these conditions. Here we discuss some of the major mechanisms linking uric acid to metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. At this time the key to understanding the importance of uric acid in these diseases will be the conduct of large clinical trials in which the effect of lowering uric acid on hard clinical outcomes is assessed. Elevated uric acid may turn out to be one of the more important remediable risk factors for metabolic and cardiovascular diseases. PMID:26703429

Tutorial in Biostatistics: Instrumental Variable Methods for Causal Inference*

PubMed Central

Baiocchi, Michael; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S.

2014-01-01

A goal of many health studies is to determine the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on health outcomes. Often, it is not ethically or practically possible to conduct a perfectly randomized experiment and instead an observational study must be used. A major challenge to the validity of observational studies is the possibility of unmeasured confounding (i.e., unmeasured ways in which the treatment and control groups differ before treatment administration which also affect the outcome). Instrumental variables analysis is a method for controlling for unmeasured confounding. This type of analysis requires the measurement of a valid instrumental variable, which is a variable that (i) is independent of the unmeasured confounding; (ii) affects the treatment; and (iii) affects the outcome only indirectly through its effect on the treatment. This tutorial discusses the types of causal effects that can be estimated by instrumental variables analysis; the assumptions needed for instrumental variables analysis to provide valid estimates of causal effects and sensitivity analysis for those assumptions; methods of estimation of causal effects using instrumental variables; and sources of instrumental variables in health studies. PMID:24599889

"Fundamental Causes" of Social Inequalities in Mortality: A Test of the Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelan, Jo C.; Link, Bruce G.; Diez-Roux, Ana; Kawachi, Ichiro; Levin, Bruce

2004-01-01

Medicine and epidemiology currently dominate the study of the strong association between socioeconomic status and mortality. Socioeconomic status typically is viewed as a causally irrelevant "confounding variable" or as a less critical variable marking only the beginning of a causal chain in which intervening risk factors are given prominence. Yet…

Can Being Scared Cause Tummy Aches? Naive Theories, Ambiguous Evidence, and Preschoolers' Causal Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schulz, Laura E.; Bonawitz, Elizabeth Baraff; Griffiths, Thomas L.

2007-01-01

Causal learning requires integrating constraints provided by domain-specific theories with domain-general statistical learning. In order to investigate the interaction between these factors, the authors presented preschoolers with stories pitting their existing theories against statistical evidence. Each child heard 2 stories in which 2 candidate…

Causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and their relationship with awareness of the condition and social distance.

PubMed

Scior, Katrina; Furnham, Adrian

2016-09-30

Evidence on mental illness stigma abounds yet little is known about public perceptions of intellectual disability. This study examined causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and how these relate to awareness of the condition and social distance. UK lay people aged 16+(N=1752), in response to vignettes depicting intellectual disability and schizophrenia, noted their interpretation of the difficulties, and rated their agreement with 22 causal and four social distance items. They were most likely to endorse environmental causes for intellectual disability, and biomedical factors, trauma and early disadvantage for schizophrenia. Accurate identification of both vignettes was associated with stronger endorsement of biomedical causes, alongside weaker endorsement of adversity, environmental and supernatural causes. Biomedical causal beliefs and social distance were negatively correlated for intellectual disability, but not for schizophrenia. Causal beliefs mediated the relationship between identification of the condition and social distance for both conditions. While all four types of causal beliefs acted as mediators for intellectual disability, for schizophrenia only supernatural causal beliefs did. Educating the public and promoting certain causal beliefs may be of benefit in tackling intellectual disability stigma, but for schizophrenia, other than tackling supernatural attributions, may be of little benefit in reducing stigma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The good, the bad, and the timely: how temporal order and moral judgment influence causal selection

PubMed Central

Reuter, Kevin; Kirfel, Lara; van Riel, Raphael; Barlassina, Luca

2014-01-01

Causal selection is the cognitive process through which one or more elements in a complex causal structure are singled out as actual causes of a certain effect. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which we investigated the role of moral and temporal factors in causal selection. Our results are as follows. First, when presented with a temporal chain in which two human agents perform the same action one after the other, subjects tend to judge the later agent to be the actual cause. Second, the impact of temporal location on causal selection is almost canceled out if the later agent did not violate a norm while the former did. We argue that this is due to the impact that judgments of norm violation have on causal selection—even if the violated norm has nothing to do with the obtaining effect. Third, moral judgments about the effect influence causal selection even in the case in which agents could not have foreseen the effect and did not intend to bring it about. We discuss our findings in connection to recent theories of the role of moral judgment in causal reasoning, on the one hand, and to probabilistic models of temporal location, on the other. PMID:25477851

Latent structure modeling underlying theophylline tablet formulations using a Bayesian network based on a self-organizing map clustering.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Obata, Yasuko; Takayama, Kozo

2015-01-01

The "quality by design" concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires the establishment of a science-based rationale and design space. In this article, we integrate thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation, Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) and a Bayesian network (BN) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline tablets were prepared using a standard formulation. We measured the tensile strength and disintegration time as response variables and the compressibility, cohesion and dispersibility of the pretableting blend as latent variables. We predicted these variables quantitatively using nonlinear TPS, generated a large amount of data on pretableting blends and tablets and clustered these data into several clusters using a SOM. Our results show that we are able to predict the experimental values of the latent and response variables with a high degree of accuracy and are able to classify the tablet data into several distinct clusters. In addition, to visualize the latent structure between the causal and latent factors and the response variables, we applied a BN method to the SOM clustering results. We found that despite having inserted latent variables between the causal factors and response variables, their relation is equivalent to the results for the SOM clustering, and thus we are able to explain the underlying latent structure. Consequently, this technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline tablet formulation.

The temporal stability and predictive validity of pupils' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour.

PubMed

Lambert, Nathan; Miller, Andy

2010-12-01

Recent studies have investigated the causal attributions for difficult pupil behaviour made by teachers, pupils, and parents but none have investigated the temporal stability or predictive validity of these attributions. This study examines the causal attributions made for difficult classroom behaviour by students on two occasions 30 months apart. The longitudinal stability of these attributions is considered as is the predictive validity of the first set of attributions in relation to teachers' later judgments about individual students' behaviour. Two hundred and seventeen secondary school age pupils (114 males, 103 females) provided data on the two occasions. Teachers also rated each student's behaviour at the two times. A questionnaire listing 63 possible causes of classroom misbehaviour was delivered to pupils firstly when they were in Year 7 (aged 11-12) and then again, 30 months later. Responses were analysed through exploratory factor analysis (EFA). Additionally, teachers were asked to rate the standard of behaviour of each of the students on the two occasions. EFA of the Years 7 and 10 data indicated that pupils' attributions yielded broadly similar five-factor models with the perceived relative importance of these factors remaining the same. Analysis also revealed a predictive relationship between pupils' attributions regarding the factor named culture of misbehaviour in Year 7, and teachers' judgments of their standard of behaviour in Year 10. The present study suggests that young adolescents' causal attributions for difficult classroom behaviour remain stable over time and are predictive of teachers' later judgments about their behaviour.

Is thermogenesis a significant causal factor in preventing the "globesity" epidemic?

PubMed

Hansen, Jens Carl; Gilman, Andrew P; Odland, Jon Øyvind

2010-08-01

During the last four decades the world has experienced an epidemic of overweight individuals in affluent as well as developing countries. The WHO has predicted a "globesity epidemic" with more than 1 billion adults being overweight and at least 300 million of these being clinically obese. Obesity among children and adolescents is of great significance. From a global population perspective, this epidemic in weight gain and its sequelae are the largest public health problems identified to date and have very significant adverse implications for population health, and have by now almost reached the proportion of a pandemic. While genetic changes have been discussed as a cause of the epidemic, there has been too little time since its start to enable enough genetic adaptation to take place for this to provide a valid explanation. Traditionally positive energy balance and sedentary life style have been regarded as the primary causal factors; however, these factors have so far failed to provide explanations for the entire problem. For these reasons it seems warranted to investigate other possible co-factors contributing to the "globesity epidemic" and to find efficient strategies to counteract further increases in the size and nature of the epidemic. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a potential preventive co-factor, thermogenesis. Special attention has been paid to the influence of ambient temperature as a grossly neglected factor in the debate. As most people today live and work at ambient temperatures close to their body temperature (the thermal neutral point), we hypothesise that this is an important causal co-factor in the "globesity" epidemic. The hypothesis: The null hypothesis that adaptive thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue in adult humans is not significant for weight loss is rejected. We propose the hypothesis that homoeothermic living conditions close to the thermogenic neutral level is an important causal co-factor in the "Globesity" Epidemic. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Productivity Analysis of Public and Private Airports: A Causal Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vasigh, Bijan; Gorjidooz, Javad

2007-01-01

Around the world, airports are being viewed as enterprises, rather than public services, which are expected to be managed efficiently and provide passengers with courteous customer services. Governments are, increasingly, turning to the private sectors for their efficiency in managing the operation, financing, and development, as well as providing security for airports. Operational and financial performance evaluation has become increasingly important to airport operators due to recent trends in airport privatization. Assessing performance allows the airport operators to plan for human resources and capital investment as efficiently as possible. Productivity measurements may be used as comparisons and guidelines in strategic planning, in the internal analysis of operational efficiency and effectiveness, and in assessing the competitive position of an airport in transportation industry. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the operational and financial efficiencies of 22 major airports in the United States and Europe. These airports are divided into three groups based on private ownership (7 British Airport Authority airports), public ownership (8 major United States airports), and a mix of private and public ownership (7 major European Union airports. The detail ownership structures of these airports are presented in Appendix A. Total factor productivity (TFP) model was utilized to measure airport performance in terms of financial and operational efficiencies and to develop a benchmarking tool to identify the areas of strength and weakness. A regression model was then employed to measure the relationship between TFP and ownership structure. Finally a Granger causality test was performed to determine whether ownership structure is a Granger cause of TFP. The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that there is not a significant relationship between airport TFP and ownership structure. Airport productivity and efficiency is, however dependent upon the level of competition, choice of the market, and regulatory control.

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence

PubMed Central

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-01-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. PMID:25749559

Model robustness as a confirmatory virtue: The case of climate science.

PubMed

Lloyd, Elisabeth A

2015-02-01

I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independently-supported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists' discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of crop insurance on water withdrawals for irrigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deryugina, Tatyana; Konar, Megan

2017-12-01

Agricultural production remains particularly vulnerable to weather fluctuations and extreme events, such as droughts, floods, and heat waves. Crop insurance is a risk management tool developed to mitigate some of this weather risk and protect farmer income in times of poor production. However, crop insurance may have unintended consequences for water resources sustainability, as the vast majority of freshwater withdrawals go to agriculture. The causal impact of crop insurance on water use in agriculture remains poorly understood. Here, we determine the empirical relationship between crop insurance and irrigation water withdrawals in the United States. Importantly, we use an instrumental variables approach to establish causality. Our methodology exploits a major policy change in the crop insurance system - the 1994 Federal Crop Insurance Reform Act - which imposed crop insurance requirements on farmers. We find that a 1% increase in insured crop acreage leads to a 0.223% increase in irrigation withdrawals, with most coming from groundwater aquifers. We identify farmers growing more groundwater-fed cotton as an important mechanism contributing to increased withdrawals. A 1% increase in insured crop acreage leads to a 0.624% increase in cotton acreage, or 95,602 acres. These results demonstrate that crop insurance causally leads to more irrigation withdrawals. More broadly, this work underscores the importance of determining causality in the water-food nexus as we endeavor to achieve global food security and water resources sustainability.

The road not taken: life experiences in monozygotic twin pairs discordant for major depression

PubMed Central

Kendler, KS; Halberstadt, LJ

2012-01-01

In an effort to understand how environmental experiences contribute to risk for major depression (MD), we conducted joint autobiographical interviews with 14 pairs of monozygotic twins (mean age 51.2) rigorously discordant for a lifetime history of MD. Twelve of the pairs could be sorted into four broad categories. In two pairs, discordance was associated with a single traumatic event occurring to the affected twin. In seven pairs, the well twin had one stable, long-term, successful romantic relationship, whereas the affected co-twin had romantic reversals one or more of which precipitated depressive episodes. These pairs varied in the degree to which the romantic problems seemed to arise from bad luck or poor choices. In one pair, occupational difficulties were strongly related to discordance in experiences with MD. In two pairs, several mechanisms seemed to be at work. Discordance in the quality of intimate love relationships was the most common etiological factor revealed by interview in these discordant pairs, with single dramatic events and occupational problems being considerably rarer. Even in this best of natural experiments, the causal interrelationship between personality, environment and depressive episodes was not always clear. Many pairs illustrated the protective effects of planfulness and the malignant effect of cumulative continuity where early difficulties in relationships shaped the subsequent life course. These results speak both to the importance of environmental influences on human well-being and psychopathology, and the complexity of the causal paths underlying their effects. PMID:22641178

Revisiting the emissions-energy-trade nexus: evidence from the newly industrializing countries.

PubMed

Ahmed, Khalid; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Kyophilavong, Phouphet

2016-04-01

This paper applies Pedroni's panel cointegration approach to explore the causal relationship between trade openness, carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth for the panel of newly industrialized economies (i.e., Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) over the period of 1970-2013. Our panel cointegration estimation results found majority of the variables cointegrated and confirm the long-run association among the variables. The Granger causality test indicates bidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption. A unidirectional causality is found running from trade openness to carbon dioxide emission and energy consumption and economic growth to carbon dioxide emissions. The results of causality analysis suggest that the trade liberalization in newly industrialized economies induces higher energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the causality results are checked using an innovative accounting approach which includes forecast-error variance decomposition test and impulse response function. The long-run coefficients are estimated using fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method, and results conclude that the trade openness and economic growth reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the long run. The results of FMOLS test sound the existence of environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. It means that trade liberalization induces carbon dioxide emission with increased national output, but it offsets that impact in the long run with reduced level of carbon dioxide emissions.

Seismic link at plate boundary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramdani, Faical; Kettani, Omar; Tadili, Benaissa

2015-06-01

Seismic triggering at plate boundaries has a very complex nature that includes seismic events at varying distances. The spatial orientation of triggering cannot be reduced to sequences from the main shocks. Seismic waves propagate at all times in all directions, particularly in highly active zones. No direct evidence can be obtained regarding which earthquakes trigger the shocks. The first approach is to determine the potential linked zones where triggering may occur. The second step is to determine the causality between the events and their triggered shocks. The spatial orientation of the links between events is established from pre-ordered networks and the adapted dependence of the spatio-temporal occurrence of earthquakes. Based on a coefficient of synchronous seismic activity to grid couples, we derive a network link by each threshold. The links of high thresholds are tested using the coherence of time series to determine the causality and related orientation. The resulting link orientations at the plate boundary conditions indicate that causal triggering seems to be localized along a major fault, as a stress transfer between two major faults, and parallel to the geothermal area extension.

Herbal hepatotoxicity: Challenges and pitfalls of causality assessment methods

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Frenzel, Christian; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

2013-01-01

The diagnosis of herbal hepatotoxicity or herb induced liver injury (HILI) represents a particular clinical and regulatory challenge with major pitfalls for the causality evaluation. At the day HILI is suspected in a patient, physicians should start assessing the quality of the used herbal product, optimizing the clinical data for completeness, and applying the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale for initial causality assessment. This scale is structured, quantitative, liver specific, and validated for hepatotoxicity cases. Its items provide individual scores, which together yield causality levels of highly probable, probable, possible, unlikely, and excluded. After completion by additional information including raw data, this scale with all items should be reported to regulatory agencies and manufacturers for further evaluation. The CIOMS scale is preferred as tool for assessing causality in hepatotoxicity cases, compared to numerous other causality assessment methods, which are inferior on various grounds. Among these disputed methods are the Maria and Victorino scale, an insufficiently qualified, shortened version of the CIOMS scale, as well as various liver unspecific methods such as the ad hoc causality approach, the Naranjo scale, the World Health Organization (WHO) method, and the Karch and Lasagna method. An expert panel is required for the Drug Induced Liver Injury Network method, the WHO method, and other approaches based on expert opinion, which provide retrospective analyses with a long delay and thereby prevent a timely assessment of the illness in question by the physician. In conclusion, HILI causality assessment is challenging and is best achieved by the liver specific CIOMS scale, avoiding pitfalls commonly observed with other approaches. PMID:23704820

Women and major depressive disorder: clinical perspectives on causal pathways.

PubMed

Accortt, Eynav Elgavish; Freeman, Marlene P; Allen, John J B

2008-12-01

Epidemiological data on the prevalence of mood disorders demonstrate that major depressive disorder (MDD) is approximately twice as common in women as in men and that its first onset peaks during the reproductive years. We aimed to review key social, psychological, and biological factors that seem strongly implicated in the etiology of major depression and to focus on sex-specific aspects of depression, such as the role of a woman's reproductive life cycle in depressive symptomatology. A review of the literature, from 1965 to present, was conducted. An integrated etiological model best explains gender and sex differences in depression. Social, psychological, and biological variables must be simultaneously taken into account. These vulnerabilities include (but are not limited to) gender-specific roles in society, life stress such as trauma, a tendency toward ruminative coping strategies, and the effects of sex hormones and genetic factors. To effectively treat MDD in women and to prevent the recurrence of illness in vulnerable women, clinicians must understand the sex-specific aspects of mood disorders over the longitudinal course of women's reproductive lives. A biopsychosocial approach should, therefore, be the main focus of future research and practice, to eventually result in an integrated etiological model of depression in women. Based on the prevalence of MDD in women, timely screening, diagnosis, and intervention should be public health priorities.

Abilities of 4-7 Years Old Children to Provide Independent Explanations and Generalisations of Causality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daugirdiene, Ausra; Petrulyte, Aiste; Brandisauskiene, Agne

2018-01-01

The understanding and generalisation of causality are important thinking abilities, as they form the basis for a person's activity. Researchers exploring these abilities do not have a unified opinion regarding the age of children when they develop causative understanding and its determinant factors (e.g. age, prior knowledge, the content of a…

Development and Coherence of Beliefs Regarding Disease Causality and Prevention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigelman, Carol K.

2014-01-01

Guided by a naïve theories perspective on the development of thinking about disease, this study of 188 children aged 6 to 18 examined knowledge of HIV/AIDS causality and prevention using parallel measures derived from open-ended and structured interviews. Knowledge of both risk factors and prevention rules, as well as conceptual understanding of…

What Does Quantum Physics Have to Do with Behavior Disorders?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Center, David B.

This paper argues that human agency as a causal factor in behavior must be considered in any model of behavior and behavior disorders. Since human agency is historically tied to the issue of consciousness, to argue that consciousness plays a causal role in behavior requires a plausible explanation of consciousness. This paper proposes that…

University Students' Causal Conceptions about Social Mobility: Diverging Pathways for Believers in Personal Merit and Luck

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shane, Jacob; Heckhausen, Jutta

2013-01-01

Many college students hold ambitious goals for upward social mobility via post-college careers. However, in the current economic recession such optimistic expectations are not a given. The present study examines how college students' current social status and beliefs in causal factors for socioeconomic status (SES) attainment lead to diverging…

Effects of Age, Gender, and Causality on Perceptions of Persons with Mental Retardation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Panek, Paul E.; Jungers, Melissa K.

2008-01-01

The present study examined the effects of age, gender, and causality on the perceptions of persons with mental retardation. Participants rated individuals with mental retardation using a semantic differential scale with three factors: activity, evaluation, and potency. Target individuals in each scenario varied on the variables of age (8, 20, 45),…

A Causal Model of Career Development and Quality of Life of College Students with Disabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chun, Jina

2017-01-01

Researchers have assumed that social cognitive factors play significant roles in the career development of transition youth and young adults with disabilities and those without disabilities. However, research on the influence of the career decision-making process as a primary causal agent in one's psychosocial outcomes such as perceived level of…

Feedback Both Helps and Hinders Learning: The Causal Role of Prior Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fyfe, Emily R.; Rittle-Johnson, Bethany

2016-01-01

Feedback can be a powerful learning tool, but its effects vary widely. Research has suggested that learners' prior knowledge may moderate the effects of feedback; however, no causal link has been established. In Experiment 1, we randomly assigned elementary school children (N = 108) to a condition based on a crossing of 2 factors: induced strategy…

[A study of relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in school-aged children].

PubMed

Sakurai, S

1989-12-01

This study was conducted to investigate the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in Japanese school-aged children. In Study 1, the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale for children developed by Kazdin, French, Unis, Esveldt-Dawsan, and Sherick (1983) was constructed. Seventeen original items were translated into Japanese and they were administrated to 405 fifth- and sixth-graders. All of the items could be included to the Japanese edition of hopelessness scale. The reliability and validity was examined. In Study 2, the relation between hopelessness and causal attribution in children were investigated. The causal attribution questionnaire developed by Higuchi, Kambare, and Otsuka (1983) and the hopelessness scale developed by Study 1 were administered to 188 sixth-graders. Children with high scores in hopelessness scale significantly attributed negative events to much more effort factor than children with low scores. It supports neither the reformulated learned helplessness model nor the causal attribution theory of achievement motivation. It was explained mainly from points of self-serving attribution, cultural difference, and social desirability. Some questions were discussed for developing studies on depression and causal attribution in Japan.

Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

PubMed

Walters, Glenn D

2018-01-01

This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

The "Mevalonate hypothesis": a cholesterol-independent alternative for the etiology of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Keizer, Hiskias G

2012-11-05

The "cholesterol hypothesis" is the leading theory to explain the cause of atherosclerosis. The "cholesterol hypothesis" assumes that plasma (LDL) cholesterol is an important causal factor for atherosclerosis.However, data of at least seven placebo controlled randomized prospective trials with various cholesterol lowering drugs show that plasma cholesterol lowering does not necessarily lead to protection against cardiovascular disease. Therefore an alternative hypothesis for the etiology of cardiovascular disease is formulated. This alternative hypothesis, the "mevalonate hypothesis", assumes that after stimulation of the mevalonate pathway in endothelial cells by inflammatory factors, these cells start producing cholesterol and free radicals. In this hypothesis, only the latter play a role in the etiology of atherosclerosis by contributing to the formation of oxidized cholesterol which is a widely accepted causal factor for atherosclerosis.Regardless of how the mevalonate pathway is activated (by withdrawal of statin drugs, by inflammatory factors or indirectly by reduced intracellular cholesterol levels) in all these cases free radical production is observed as well as cardiovascular disease. Since in the "mevalonate hypothesis" cholesterol is produced at the same time as the free radicals causing atherosclerosis, this hypothesis provides an explanation for the correlation which exists between cardiovascular disease and plasma cholesterol levels. From an evolutionary perspective, concomitant cholesterol production and free radical production in response to inflammatory factors makes sense if one realizes that both activities potentially protect cells and organisms from infection by gram-negative bacteria.In conclusion, data have been collected which suggest that activation of the mevalonate pathway in endothelial cells is likely to be a causal factor for atherosclerosis. This "mevalonate hypothesis" provides a better explanation for results obtained from recent clinical studies with cholesterol lowering drugs than the "cholesterol hypothesis". Furthermore, this hypothesis explains how cholesterol can be correlated with cardiovascular disease without being a causal factor for it. Finally it provides a logical explanation for the etiology of this disease.

A Review of the Literature on Native Hawaiian Youth and Drug Use: Implications for Research and Practice

PubMed Central

Edwards, Christopher; Giroux, Danielle; Okamoto, Scott K.

2010-01-01

This paper provides a comprehensive review of the recent literature on Native Hawaiian youth and substance use. Eight-hundred and twelve potential articles pertaining to Native Hawaiian youth and substance use published between 1995 to May 2009 were identified through an exhaustive literature search. The total number of articles was reduced to 32 articles, which were systematically coded and content analyzed. The findings indicated that the majority of studies focused on epidemiology, with relatively few of them focused on causal factors/etiology and systematic program development or evaluation. Gender differences in drug use were highlighted in several studies. Implications for culturally-tailored interventions and future research are discussed. PMID:20737343

Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance.

PubMed

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning.

Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance

PubMed Central

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679

Incorporating Functional Genomic Information in Genetic Association Studies Using an Empirical Bayes Approach.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Cox, Angela; Lin, Wei-Yu; Easton, Douglas F; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Walters, Kevin

2016-04-01

There is a large amount of functional genetic data available, which can be used to inform fine-mapping association studies (in diseases with well-characterised disease pathways). Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) prioritization via Bayes factors is attractive because prior information can inform the effect size or the prior probability of causal association. This approach requires the specification of the effect size. If the information needed to estimate a priori the probability density for the effect sizes for causal SNPs in a genomic region isn't consistent or isn't available, then specifying a prior variance for the effect sizes is challenging. We propose both an empirical method to estimate this prior variance, and a coherent approach to using SNP-level functional data, to inform the prior probability of causal association. Through simulation we show that when ranking SNPs by our empirical Bayes factor in a fine-mapping study, the causal SNP rank is generally as high or higher than the rank using Bayes factors with other plausible values of the prior variance. Importantly, we also show that assigning SNP-specific prior probabilities of association based on expert prior functional knowledge of the disease mechanism can lead to improved causal SNPs ranks compared to ranking with identical prior probabilities of association. We demonstrate the use of our methods by applying the methods to the fine mapping of the CASP8 region of chromosome 2 using genotype data from the Collaborative Oncological Gene-Environment Study (COGS) Consortium. The data we analysed included approximately 46,000 breast cancer case and 43,000 healthy control samples. © 2016 The Authors. *Genetic Epidemiology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Beliefs of people taking antidepressants about causes of depression and reasons for increased prescribing rates.

PubMed

Read, John; Cartwright, Claire; Gibson, Kerry; Shiels, Christopher; Haslam, Nicholas

2014-10-01

Public beliefs about the causes of mental health problems are related to desire for distance and pessimism about recovery, and are therefore frequently studied. The beliefs of people receiving treatment are researched less often. An online survey on causal beliefs about depression and experiences with antidepressants was completed by 1829 New Zealand adults prescribed anti-depressants in the preceding five years, 97.4% of whom proceeded to take antidepressants. The most frequently endorsed of 17 causal beliefs were family stress, relationship problems, loss of loved one, financial problems, isolation, and abuse or neglect in childhood. Factor analysis produced three factors: 'bio-genetic', 'adulthood stress' and 'childhood adversity'. The most strongly endorsed explanations for increases in antidepressant prescribing invoked improved identification, reduced stigma and drug company marketing. The least strongly endorsed was 'Anti-depressants are the best treatment'. Regression analyses revealed that self-reported efficacy of the antidepressants was positively associated with bio-genetic causal beliefs, negatively associated with childhood adversity beliefs and unrelated to adulthood stress beliefs. The belief that 'People cannot׳ get better by themselves even if they try' was positively associated with bio-genetic beliefs. The convenience sample may have been biased towards a favourable view of bio-genetic explanations, since 83% reported that the medication reduced their depression. Clinicians׳ should consider exploring patients׳ causal beliefs. The public, even when taking antidepressants, continues to hold a multi-factorial causal model of depression with a primary emphasis on psycho-social causes. A three factor model of those beliefs may lead to more sophisticated understandings of relationships with stigma variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with presenteeism among employed Australian adults reporting lifetime major depression with 12-month symptoms.

PubMed

Cocker, Fiona; Martin, Angela; Scott, Jenn; Venn, Alison; Otahal, Petr; Sanderson, Kristy

2011-12-01

Employees experiencing depression can take a sickness absence or continue working ('presenteeism'). However, little is known about the factors associated with these behaviors within this population. This study aimed to determine the relative importance of socio-demographic, financial, work and health-related factors associated with presenteeism. The 2007 Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing provided data from employed individuals reporting lifetime major depression with 12-month symptoms (N=320). Survey adjusted multivariable logistic regression assessed classification of 12-month, depression-related presenteeism on the basis of socio-demographic, financial, work and health factors. Acceptable classification of cases was 70% or greater. Classification of cases based on socio-demographic factors, age, sex and marital status, was reasonable (62%). Adding work factors (work hours and occupation type) produced a 1% increase in successfully classified cases (63%). Health factors further increased correctly classified cases (67%). Marital status, housing tenure and co-morbid mental disorders were important indicators of presenteeism behavior. Work-related variables were restricted to available measures. Potentially important psychosocial work environment factors were unavailable. Cross-sectional data precluded causal inference. Using available factors, model discrimination did not reach an acceptable level i.e. 70% of presenteeism cases successfully classified. This highlighted the contribution of unmeasured factors to presenteeism behavior. Future research should explore the relative importance of psychosocial work environment and personality factors such as work demands, effort/reward imbalance and conscientiousness. The identified associations between socio-demographic, financial and health factors on work attendance behaviors could inform disease management guidelines for employers via recognition of employees at risk of presenteeism. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees.

PubMed

Kaewanuchit, Chonticha; Muntaner, Carles; Isha, Nizam

2015-07-01

Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level.

Non-parametric causality detection: An application to social media and financial data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsapeli, Fani; Musolesi, Mirco; Tino, Peter

2017-10-01

According to behavioral finance, stock market returns are influenced by emotional, social and psychological factors. Several recent works support this theory by providing evidence of correlation between stock market prices and collective sentiment indexes measured using social media data. However, a pure correlation analysis is not sufficient to prove that stock market returns are influenced by such emotional factors since both stock market prices and collective sentiment may be driven by a third unmeasured factor. Controlling for factors that could influence the study by applying multivariate regression models is challenging given the complexity of stock market data. False assumptions about the linearity or non-linearity of the model and inaccuracies on model specification may result in misleading conclusions. In this work, we propose a novel framework for causal inference that does not require any assumption about a particular parametric form of the model expressing statistical relationships among the variables of the study and can effectively control a large number of observed factors. We apply our method in order to estimate the causal impact that information posted in social media may have on stock market returns of four big companies. Our results indicate that social media data not only correlate with stock market returns but also influence them.

Drug and herb induced liver injury: Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences scale for causality assessment

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Wolff, Albrecht; Frenzel, Christian; Schwarzenboeck, Alexander; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

2014-01-01

Causality assessment of suspected drug induced liver injury (DILI) and herb induced liver injury (HILI) is hampered by the lack of a standardized approach to be used by attending physicians and at various subsequent evaluating levels. The aim of this review was to analyze the suitability of the liver specific Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale as a standard tool for causality assessment in DILI and HILI cases. PubMed database was searched for the following terms: drug induced liver injury; herb induced liver injury; DILI causality assessment; and HILI causality assessment. The strength of the CIOMS lies in its potential as a standardized scale for DILI and HILI causality assessment. Other advantages include its liver specificity and its validation for hepatotoxicity with excellent sensitivity, specificity and predictive validity, based on cases with a positive reexposure test. This scale allows prospective collection of all relevant data required for a valid causality assessment. It does not require expert knowledge in hepatotoxicity and its results may subsequently be refined. Weaknesses of the CIOMS scale include the limited exclusion of alternative causes and qualitatively graded risk factors. In conclusion, CIOMS appears to be suitable as a standard scale for attending physicians, regulatory agencies, expert panels and other scientists to provide a standardized, reproducible causality assessment in suspected DILI and HILI cases, applicable primarily at all assessing levels involved. PMID:24653791

A review of causal inference for biomedical informatics

PubMed Central

Kleinberg, Samantha; Hripcsak, George

2011-01-01

Causality is an important concept throughout the health sciences and is particularly vital for informatics work such as finding adverse drug events or risk factors for disease using electronic health records. While philosophers and scientists working for centuries on formalizing what makes something a cause have not reached a consensus, new methods for inference show that we can make progress in this area in many practical cases. This article reviews core concepts in understanding and identifying causality and then reviews current computational methods for inference and explanation, focusing on inference from large-scale observational data. While the problem is not fully solved, we show that graphical models and Granger causality provide useful frameworks for inference and that a more recent approach based on temporal logic addresses some of the limitations of these methods. PMID:21782035

What matters most: quantifying an epidemiology of consequence.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine; Galea, Sandro

2015-05-01

Risk factor epidemiology has contributed to substantial public health success. In this essay, we argue, however, that the focus on risk factor epidemiology has led epidemiology to ever increasing focus on the estimation of precise causal effects of exposures on an outcome at the expense of engagement with the broader causal architecture that produces population health. To conduct an epidemiology of consequence, a systematic effort is needed to engage our science in a critical reflection both about how well and under what conditions or assumptions we can assess causal effects and also on what will truly matter most for changing population health. Such an approach changes the priorities and values of the discipline and requires reorientation of how we structure the questions we ask and the methods we use, as well as how we teach epidemiology to our emerging scholars. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Smoking and Physical Activity in Healthy Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study in Tehran

PubMed Central

Heydari, Gholamreza; Yousefifard, Mahmoud; Asady, Hadi; Baikpour, Masoud; Barat, Atena

2015-01-01

Background: Smoking and physical inactivity are two major risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Not only these factors have a causal effect on NCDs, but they can also affect each other. This study aimed to assess the relationship between these factors as well as their effect on NCDs. Materials and Methods: A total of 2,602 healthy adults aged 30–60 years participated in this survey in 2010. Data on demographic characteristics, medical history, smoking status, physical activity and anthropometric measures including weight and height were collected and analyzed. The effect of smoking on physical activity was evaluated by logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders. Results: Among demographic characteristics, only age (P<0.001) and educational level (P<0.001) had a significant association with smoking status. Compared with nonsmokers, smokers had an odds ratio of 4.88 (95% CI, 3.34–7.13) for having unsatisfactory physical activity. Conclusion: The present study showed that cigarette smoking negatively affects the quality of physical activity. PMID:27114725

Experimental Myocardial Infarction Upregulates Circulating Fibroblast Growth Factor-23.

PubMed

Andrukhova, Olena; Slavic, Svetlana; Odörfer, Kathrin I; Erben, Reinhold G

2015-10-01

Myocardial infarction (MI) is a major cause of death worldwide. Epidemiological studies have linked vitamin D deficiency to MI incidence. Because fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF23) is a master regulator of vitamin D hormone production and has been shown to be associated with cardiac hypertrophy per se, we explored the hypothesis that FGF23 may be a previously unrecognized pathophysiological factor causally linked to progression of cardiac dysfunction post-MI. Here, we show that circulating intact Fgf23 was profoundly elevated, whereas serum vitamin D hormone levels were suppressed, after induction of experimental MI in rat and mouse models, independent of changes in serum soluble Klotho or serum parathyroid hormone. Both skeletal and cardiac expression of Fgf23 was increased after MI. Although the molecular link between the cardiac lesion and circulating Fgf23 concentrations remains to be identified, our study has uncovered a novel heart-bone-kidney axis that may have important clinical implications and may inaugurate the new field of cardio-osteology. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Neural Representations of Physics Concepts.

PubMed

Mason, Robert A; Just, Marcel Adam

2016-06-01

We used functional MRI (fMRI) to assess neural representations of physics concepts (momentum, energy, etc.) in juniors, seniors, and graduate students majoring in physics or engineering. Our goal was to identify the underlying neural dimensions of these representations. Using factor analysis to reduce the number of dimensions of activation, we obtained four physics-related factors that were mapped to sets of voxels. The four factors were interpretable as causal motion visualization, periodicity, algebraic form, and energy flow. The individual concepts were identifiable from their fMRI signatures with a mean rank accuracy of .75 using a machine-learning (multivoxel) classifier. Furthermore, there was commonality in participants' neural representation of physics; a classifier trained on data from all but one participant identified the concepts in the left-out participant (mean accuracy = .71 across all nine participant samples). The findings indicate that abstract scientific concepts acquired in an educational setting evoke activation patterns that are identifiable and common, indicating that science education builds abstract knowledge using inherent, repurposed brain systems. © The Author(s) 2016.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data.

PubMed

Dingus, Thomas A; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-03-08

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk.

Driver crash risk factors and prevalence evaluation using naturalistic driving data

PubMed Central

Dingus, Thomas A.; Guo, Feng; Lee, Suzie; Antin, Jonathan F.; Perez, Miguel; Buchanan-King, Mindy; Hankey, Jonathan

2016-01-01

The accurate evaluation of crash causal factors can provide fundamental information for effective transportation policy, vehicle design, and driver education. Naturalistic driving (ND) data collected with multiple onboard video cameras and sensors provide a unique opportunity to evaluate risk factors during the seconds leading up to a crash. This paper uses a National Academy of Sciences-sponsored ND dataset comprising 905 injurious and property damage crash events, the magnitude of which allows the first direct analysis (to our knowledge) of causal factors using crashes only. The results show that crash causation has shifted dramatically in recent years, with driver-related factors (i.e., error, impairment, fatigue, and distraction) present in almost 90% of crashes. The results also definitively show that distraction is detrimental to driver safety, with handheld electronic devices having high use rates and risk. PMID:26903657

Causal explanations for class inequality in health--an empirical analysis.

PubMed

Lundberg, O

1991-01-01

One of the most important issues for research on social class inequalities in health are the causes behind such differences. So far, the debate on class inequalities in health has mainly been centred around hypotheses on artefactual and selectional processes. Although most contributors to this branch of research have argued in favour of causal explanations, these have gained very little systematic scrutiny. In this article, several possible causal factors are singled out for empirical testing. The effect of these factors on class differences in physical and mental illness is studied by means of logit regressions. On the basis of these analyses, it is shown that physical working conditions are the prime source of class inequality in physical illness, although economic hardship during upbringing and health related behaviours also contribute. For class inequality in mental illness these three factors plus weak social network are important. In sum, a large part of the class differences in physical as well as mental illness can be understood as a result of systematic differences between classes in living conditions, primarily differences in working conditions.

Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort.

PubMed

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J; Beresford, Shirley A A; Wang, Catharine

2016-01-01

Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors.

Innate immune activity conditions the effect of regulatory variants upon monocyte gene expression.

PubMed

Fairfax, Benjamin P; Humburg, Peter; Makino, Seiko; Naranbhai, Vivek; Wong, Daniel; Lau, Evelyn; Jostins, Luke; Plant, Katharine; Andrews, Robert; McGee, Chris; Knight, Julian C

2014-03-07

To systematically investigate the impact of immune stimulation upon regulatory variant activity, we exposed primary monocytes from 432 healthy Europeans to interferon-γ (IFN-γ) or differing durations of lipopolysaccharide and mapped expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs). More than half of cis-eQTLs identified, involving hundreds of genes and associated pathways, are detected specifically in stimulated monocytes. Induced innate immune activity reveals multiple master regulatory trans-eQTLs including the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), coding variants altering enzyme and receptor function, an IFN-β cytokine network showing temporal specificity, and an interferon regulatory factor 2 (IRF2) transcription factor-modulated network. Induced eQTL are significantly enriched for genome-wide association study loci, identifying context-specific associations to putative causal genes including CARD9, ATM, and IRF8. Thus, applying pathophysiologically relevant immune stimuli assists resolution of functional genetic variants.

Novel Adaptive and Innate Immunity Targets in Hypertension

PubMed Central

Abais-Battad, Justine M.; Dasinger, John Henry; Fehrenbach, Daniel J.; Mattson, David L.

2017-01-01

Hypertension is a worldwide epidemic and global health concern as it is a major risk factor for the development of cardiovascular diseases. A relationship between the immune system and its contributing role to the pathogenesis of hypertension has been long established, but substantial advancements within the last few years have dissected specific causal molecular mechanisms. This review will briefly examine these recent studies exploring the involvement of either innate or adaptive immunity pathways. Such pathways to be discussed include innate immunity factors such as antigen presenting cells and pattern recognition receptors, adaptive immune elements including T and B lymphocytes, and more specifically, the emerging role of T regulatory cells, as well as the potential of cytokines and chemokines to serve as signaling messengers connecting innate and adaptive immunity. Together, we summarize these studies to provide new perspective for what will hopefully lead to more targeted approaches to manipulate the immune system as hypertensive therapy. PMID:28336371

Reproduction of European eel jeopardised by high levels of dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs?

PubMed

Geeraerts, C; Focant, J-F; Eppe, G; De Pauw, E; Belpaire, C

2011-09-01

Dioxins, furans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were analysed in muscle tissue from yellow phased European eel (Anguilla anguilla) from 38 sites in Belgium. Dioxin concentrations in eel vary considerably between sampling locations, indicating that yellow eel is a good indicator of local pollution levels. Measured levels of dioxin-like PCBs are much higher than those of the dioxins and furans. In the majority of the sites, eel has levels considered to be detrimental for their reproduction. Field levels of dioxin and dioxin-like PCBs are therefore suggested as an additional causal factor contributing to the decline of the European eel. 42% of the sampling sites show especially dioxin-like PCB levels exceeding the European consumption level (with a factor 3 on average). Human consumption of eel, especially in these highly contaminated sites, seems unjustified. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fushino, Kumiko

2010-01-01

This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

2015-01-01

This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

PubMed

Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

2015-01-01

Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

Overcommitment as a predictor of effort-reward imbalance: evidence from an 8-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Feldt, Taru; Hyvönen, Katriina; Mäkikangas, Anne; Rantanen, Johanna; Huhtala, Mari; Kinnunen, Ulla

2016-07-01

The effort-reward imbalance (ERI) model includes the personal characteristic of overcommitment (OC) and the job-related characteristics of effort, reward, and ERI, all of which are assumed to play a role in an employee's health and well-being at work. The aim of the present longitudinal study was to shed more light on the dynamics of the ERI model by investigating the basic hypotheses related to the role of OC in the model, ie, to establish whether an employee's OC could be a risk factor for an increased experience of high effort, low reward, and high ERI at work. The study was based on 5-wave, 8-year follow-up data collected among Finnish professionals in 2006 (T1, N=747), 2008 (T2, N=422), 2010 (T3, N=368), 2012 (T4, N=325), and 2014 (T5, N=273). The participants were mostly male (85% at T1) and the majority of them worked in technical fields. OC, effort, reward, and ERI were measured at each time point with the 23-item ERI scale. Three cross-lagged structural equation models (SEM) were estimated and compared by using full information maximum likelihood method: (i) OC predicted later experiences of effort, reward, and ERI (normal causation model), (ii) effort, reward, and ERI predicted later OC (reversed causation model), and (iii) associations in normal causal and reversed causal models were simultaneously valid (reciprocal causation model). The results supported the normal causation model: strong OC predicted later experiences of high effort, low reward and high ERI. High OC is a risk factor for an increased experience of job strain factors; that is, high effort, low reward, and high ERI. Thus, OC is a risk factor not only for an employee's well-being and health but also for an increasing risk for perceiving adverse job strain factors in the working environment.

Effects of cognitive training on the structure of intelligence.

PubMed

Protzko, John

2017-08-01

Targeted cognitive training, such as n-back or speed of processing training, in the hopes of raising intelligence is of great theoretical and practical importance. The most important theoretical contribution, however, is not about the malleability of intelligence. Instead, I argue the most important and novel theoretical contribution is understanding the causal structure of intelligence. The structure of intelligence, most often taken as a hierarchical factor structure, necessarily prohibits transfer from subfactors back up to intelligence. If this is the true structure, targeted cognitive training interventions will fail to increase intelligence not because intelligence is immutable, but simply because there is no causal connection between, say, working memory and intelligence. Seeing the structure of intelligence for what it is, a causal measurement model, allows us to focus testing on the presence and absence of causal links. If we can increase subfactors without transfer to other facets, we may be confirming the correct causal structure more than testing malleability. Such a blending into experimental psychometrics is a strong theoretical pursuit.

Using group model building to understand factors that influence childhood obesity in an urban environment.

PubMed

Nelson, David A; Simenz, Christopher J; OʼConnor, Sarah P; Greer, Yvonne D; Bachrach, Ann L; Shields, Tony; Fuller, Brett A; Horrigan, Katie; Pritchard, Kathleen; Springer, Judy B; Meurer, John R

2015-01-01

Despite increased attention, conventional views of obesity are based upon individual behaviors, and children and parents living with obesity are assumed to be the primary problem solvers. Instead of focusing exclusively on individual reduction behaviors for childhood obesity, greater focus should be placed on better understanding existing community systems and their effects on obesity. The Milwaukee Childhood Obesity Prevention Project is a community-based coalition established to develop policy and environmental change strategies to impact childhood obesity in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The coalition conducted a Group Model Building exercise to better understand root causes of childhood obesity in its community. Group Model Building is a process by which a group systematically engages in model construction to better understand the systems that are in place. It helps participants make their mental models explicit through a careful and consistent process to test assumptions. This process has 3 main components: (1) assembling a team of participants; (2) conducting a behavior-over-time graphs exercise; and (3) drawing the causal loop diagram exercise. The behavior-over-time graph portion produced 61 graphs in 10 categories. The causal loop diagram yielded 5 major themes and 7 subthemes. Factors that influence childhood obesity are varied, and it is important to recognize that no single solution exists. The perspectives from this exercise provided a means to create a process for dialogue and commitment by stakeholders and partnerships to build capacity for change within the community.

Flight Test Comparison Between Enhanced Vision (FLIR) and Synthetic Vision Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arthur, Jarvis J., III; Kramer, Lynda J.; Bailey, Randall E.

2005-01-01

Limited visibility and reduced situational awareness have been cited as predominant causal factors for both Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT) and runway incursion accidents. NASA s Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) project is developing practical application technologies with the goal of eliminating low visibility conditions as a causal factor to civil aircraft accidents while replicating the operational benefits of clear day flight operations, regardless of the actual outside visibility condition. A major thrust of the SVS project involves the development/demonstration of affordable, certifiable display configurations that provide intuitive out-the-window terrain and obstacle information with advanced pathway guidance. A flight test evaluation was conducted in the summer of 2004 by NASA Langley Research Center under NASA s Aviation Safety and Security, Synthetic Vision System - Commercial and Business program. A Gulfstream G-V aircraft, modified and operated under NASA contract by the Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, was flown over a 3-week period at the Reno/Tahoe International Airport and an additional 3-week period at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility to evaluate integrated Synthetic Vision System concepts. Flight testing was conducted to evaluate the performance, usability, and acceptance of an integrated synthetic vision concept which included advanced Synthetic Vision display concepts for a transport aircraft flight deck, a Runway Incursion Prevention System, an Enhanced Vision Systems (EVS), and real-time Database Integrity Monitoring Equipment. This paper focuses on comparing qualitative and subjective results between EVS and SVS display concepts.

A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry.

PubMed

Saxe, Glenn N; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C; Aliferis, Constantin

2016-01-01

Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach--the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method-designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a 'gold standard' dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry.

Drug-disease association and drug-repositioning predictions in complex diseases using causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization.

PubMed

Yang, Jihong; Li, Zheng; Fan, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiyu

2014-09-22

The high incidence of complex diseases has become a worldwide threat to human health. Multiple targets and pathways are perturbed during the pathological process of complex diseases. Systematic investigation of complex relationship between drugs and diseases is necessary for new association discovery and drug repurposing. For this purpose, three causal networks were constructed herein for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. A causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization (CI-PMF) approach was proposed to predict and classify drug-disease associations, and further used for drug-repositioning predictions. First, multilevel systematic relations between drugs and diseases were integrated from heterogeneous databases to construct causal networks connecting drug-target-pathway-gene-disease. Then, the association scores between drugs and diseases were assessed by evaluating a drug's effects on multiple targets and pathways. Furthermore, PMF models were learned based on known interactions, and associations were then classified into three types by trained models. Finally, therapeutic associations were predicted based upon the ranking of association scores and predicted association types. In terms of drug-disease association prediction, modified causal inference included in CI-PMF outperformed existing causal inference with a higher AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) score and greater precision. Moreover, CI-PMF performed better than single modified causal inference in predicting therapeutic drug-disease associations. In the top 30% of predicted associations, 58.6% (136/232), 50.8% (31/61), and 39.8% (140/352) hit known therapeutic associations, while precisions obtained by the latter were only 10.2% (231/2264), 8.8% (36/411), and 9.7% (189/1948). Clinical verifications were further conducted for the top 100 newly predicted therapeutic associations. As a result, 21, 12, and 32 associations have been studied and many treatment effects of drugs on diseases were investigated for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. Related chains in causal networks were extracted for these 65 clinical-verified associations, and we further illustrated the therapeutic role of etodolac in breast cancer by inferred chains. Overall, CI-PMF is a useful approach for associating drugs with complex diseases and provides potential values for drug repositioning.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

Pathogen evolution across the agro-ecological interface: implications for disease management.

PubMed

Burdon, Jeremy J; Thrall, Peter H

2008-02-01

Infectious disease is a major causal factor in the demography of human, plant and animal populations. While it is generally accepted in medical, veterinary and agricultural contexts that variation in host resistance and pathogen virulence and aggressiveness is of central importance to understanding patterns of infection, there has been remarkably little effort to directly investigate causal links between population genetic structure and disease dynamics, and even less work on factors influencing host-pathogen coevolution. The lack of empirical evidence is particularly surprising, given the potential for such variation to not only affect disease dynamics and prevalence, but also when or where new diseases or pathotypes emerge. Increasingly, this lack of knowledge has led to calls for an integrated approach to disease management, incorporating both ecological and evolutionary processes. Here, we argue that plant pathogens occurring in agro-ecosystems represent one clear example where the application of evolutionary principles to disease management would be of great benefit, as well as providing model systems for advancing our ability to generalize about the long-term coevolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen systems. We suggest that this is particularly the case given that agro-ecological host-pathogen interactions represent a diversity of situations ranging from those that only involve agricultural crops through to those that also include weedy crop relatives or even unrelated native plant communities. We begin by examining some of the criteria that are important in determining involvement in agricultural pathogen evolution by noncrop plants. Throughout we use empirical examples to illustrate the fact that different processes may dominate in different systems, and suggest that consideration of life history and spatial structure are central to understanding dynamics and direction of the interaction. We then discuss the implications that such interactions have for disease management in agro-ecosystems and how we can influence those outcomes. Finally, we identify several major gaps where future research could increase our ability to utilize evolutionary principles in managing disease in agro-ecosystems.

Transcriptome Analysis for Abnormal Spike Development of the Wheat Mutant dms

PubMed Central

Zhu, Xin-Xin; Li, Qiao-Yun; Shen, Chun-Cai; Duan, Zong-Biao; Yu, Dong-Yan; Niu, Ji-Shan; Ni, Yong-Jing; Jiang, Yu-Mei

2016-01-01

Background Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) spike development is the foundation for grain yield. We obtained a novel wheat mutant, dms, characterized as dwarf, multi-pistil and sterility. Although the genetic changes are not clear, the heredity of traits suggests that a recessive gene locus controls the two traits of multi-pistil and sterility in self-pollinating populations of the medium plants (M), such that the dwarf genotype (D) and tall genotype (T) in the progeny of the mutant are ideal lines for studies regarding wheat spike development. The objective of this study was to explore the molecular basis for spike abnormalities of dwarf genotype. Results Four unigene libraries were assembled by sequencing the mRNAs of the super-bulked differentiating spikes and stem tips of the D and T plants. Using integrative analysis, we identified 419 genes highly expressed in spikes, including nine typical homeotic genes of the MADS-box family and the genes TaAP2, TaFL and TaDL. We also identified 143 genes that were significantly different between young spikes of T and D, and 26 genes that were putatively involved in spike differentiation. The result showed that the expression levels of TaAP1-2, TaAP2, and other genes involved in the majority of biological processes such as transcription, translation, cell division, photosynthesis, carbohydrate transport and metabolism, and energy production and conversion were significantly lower in D than in T. Conclusions We identified a set of genes related to wheat floral organ differentiation, including typical homeotic genes. Our results showed that the major causal factors resulting in the spike abnormalities of dms were the lower expression homeotic genes, hormonal imbalance, repressed biological processes, and deficiency of construction materials and energy. We performed a series of studies on the homeotic genes, however the other three causal factors for spike abnormal phenotype of dms need further study. PMID:26982202

Stratified exact tests for the weak causal null hypothesis in randomized trials with a binary outcome.

PubMed

Chiba, Yasutaka

2017-09-01

Fisher's exact test is commonly used to compare two groups when the outcome is binary in randomized trials. In the context of causal inference, this test explores the sharp causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal effect of treatment is the same for all subjects), but not the weak causal null hypothesis (i.e. the causal risks are the same in the two groups). Therefore, in general, rejection of the null hypothesis by Fisher's exact test does not mean that the causal risk difference is not zero. Recently, Chiba (Journal of Biometrics and Biostatistics 2015; 6: 244) developed a new exact test for the weak causal null hypothesis when the outcome is binary in randomized trials; the new test is not based on any large sample theory and does not require any assumption. In this paper, we extend the new test; we create a version of the test applicable to a stratified analysis. The stratified exact test that we propose is general in nature and can be used in several approaches toward the estimation of treatment effects after adjusting for stratification factors. The stratified Fisher's exact test of Jung (Biometrical Journal 2014; 56: 129-140) tests the sharp causal null hypothesis. This test applies a crude estimator of the treatment effect and can be regarded as a special case of our proposed exact test. Our proposed stratified exact test can be straightforwardly extended to analysis of noninferiority trials and to construct the associated confidence interval. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

2010-01-01

Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

[Exploration of influencing factors of price of herbal based on VAR model].

PubMed

Wang, Nuo; Liu, Shu-Zhen; Yang, Guang

2014-10-01

Based on vector auto-regression (VAR) model, this paper takes advantage of Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse response analysis techniques to carry out a comprehensive study of the factors influencing the price of Chinese herbal, including herbal cultivation costs, acreage, natural disasters, the residents' needs and inflation. The study found that there is Granger causality relationship between inflation and herbal prices, cultivation costs and herbal prices. And in the total variance analysis of Chinese herbal and medicine price index, the largest contribution to it is from its own fluctuations, followed by the cultivation costs and inflation.

Influence of climate cycles on grapevine domestication and ancient migrations in Eurasia.

PubMed

Mariani, Luigi; Cola, Gabriele; Maghradze, David; Failla, Osvaldo; Zavatti, Franco

2018-09-01

The objective of this work is to investigate the Holocenic climate cycles that may have influenced the domestication of grapevine in the Subcaucasian area and its subsequent spread in Eurasia. The analysis covered the longitudinal belt ranging from the Iberian Peninsula to Japan, seen as the preferential pathway for the Holocenic spread of grapevine and many other crops in Eurasia. Spectral analysis was considered as the criterion of investigation and the Holocenic cycles were analyzed considering different geochemical and biological proxies, of which seven are directly referred to vine. In this context the relation of the abovementioned proxies with spectral peaks of possible causal factors like Solar activity (SA), North Atlantic oceanic factors (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - AMO and North Atlantic Oscillation - NAO), and subtropical oceanic factors (El Nino Southern Oscillation - ENSO) was also analyzed. In order to acquire a sufficiently wide number of proxies sensitive to the causal factors, we referred to a latitudinal belt wider than the one colonized by vine, also acquiring proxy from the Scandinavian area, notoriously susceptible to North Atlantic forcings. The analysis of the proxy spectral peaks, considering 20 classes with a 50-years step in the 0-1000 years range, showed that the 50% of the classes have a higher frequency of peaks at East than West, the 20% a higher frequency at West than East and the 10% an equal frequency, showing the efficiency of the propagation of Western signals towards the center of Eurasia. The search of the causal factors spectral peaks in the proxy series showed that AMO, NAO and SA acted with a certain regularity on the entire belt investigated both latitudinally and longitudinally, while spectral peaks linked to ENSO underwent a considerable attenuation moving northward. Finally, the specific analysis on viticultural proxies showed common peaks with causal factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran

PubMed Central

Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra LC.; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

2016-01-01

Background: In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. Methods: This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Results: Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Conclusions: Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future. PMID:27157159

The Pattern of Road Traffic Crashes in South East Iran.

PubMed

Rad, Mahdieh; Martiniuk, Alexandra Lc; Ansari-Moghaddam, Alireza; Mohammadi, Mahdi; Rashedi, Fariborz; Ghasemi, Ardavan

2016-09-01

In the present study, the epidemiologic aspects of road traffic crashes in South East of Iran are described. This cross-sectional study included the profile of 2398 motor vehicle crashes recorded in the police office in one Year in South East of Iran. Data collected included: demographics, the type of crash, type of involved vehicle, location of crash and factors contributing to the crash. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Collisions with other vehicles or objects contributed the highest proportion (62.4%) of motor vehicle crashes. Human factors including careless driving, violating traffic laws, speeding, and sleep deprivation/fatigue were the most important causal factors accounting for 90% of road crashes. Data shows that 41% of drivers were not using a seat belt at the time of crash. One- third of the crashes resulted in injury (25%) or death (5%). Reckless driving such as speeding and violation of traffic laws are major risk factors for crashes in the South East of Iran. This highlights the need for education along with traffic law enforcement to reduce motor vehicle crashes in future.

Negative vacuum energy densities and the causal diamond measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Salem, Michael P.

2009-07-15

Arguably a major success of the landscape picture is the prediction of a small, nonzero vacuum energy density. The details of this prediction depend in part on how the diverging spacetime volume of the multiverse is regulated, a question that remains unresolved. One proposal, the causal diamond measure, has demonstrated many phenomenological successes, including predicting a distribution of positive vacuum energy densities in good agreement with observation. In the string landscape, however, the vacuum energy density is expected to take positive and negative values. We find the causal diamond measure gives a poor fit to observation in such a landscapemore » - in particular, 99.6% of observers in galaxies seemingly just like ours measure a vacuum energy density smaller than we do, most of them measuring it to be negative.« less

Phytophthora megakarya, a causal agent of black pod rot in Africa

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In most parts of the world where Theobroma cacao is grown, Phytophthora palmivora is the major concern for causing black pod rot (BPR). Phytophthora megakarya, on the other hand, occurs only in Africa, but represents a major threat to cacao production, the countries of West Africa being the largest ...

Animal selection for whole genome sequencing by quantifying the unique contribution of homozygous haplotypes sequenced

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Major whole genome sequencing projects promise to identify rare and causal variants within livestock species; however, the efficient selection of animals for sequencing remains a major problem within these surveys. The goal of this project was to develop a library of high accuracy genetic variants f...

Epilepsy surgery in context of neurocysticercosis

PubMed Central

Singh, Gagandeep; Chowdhary, Ashwani Kumar

2014-01-01

The association between neurocysticercosis (NCC) and epilepsy is well known and NCC is an important risk factor for epileptic seizures in many Taenia solium-endemic regions of the world. However, while the relationship between NCC and epilepsy is well known, the association between NCC and medically refractory (or surgically remediable epilepsy) has received little attention in the past. Our experience and review of the sparse literature available suggests that NCC is causally related to surgically remediable epilepsy albeit uncommonly so and that association derives its underpinnings from several different scenarios: (1) Medically refractory lesional epilepsy, in which seizures arise from the vicinity of the calcified neurocysticercus lesion (CNL), (2) Medically refractory epilepsy with dual pathology type of relationship between the hippocampal sclerosis (HS) and CNL in which both have been unequivocally demonstrated to give rise to independent seizures and (3) Mesial temporal lobe epilepsy due to HS with a distantly-located CNL, which is in itself not epileptogenic. A major point of controversy revolves around whether or not there exists a causal association between the CNL and HS. We believe that an association exists between NCC and HS and the most important factor influencing this association is the location of the CNL. Furthermore, NCC is a risk factor for medically-refractory epilepsy and that this might account for a considerable proportion of the intractable epilepsy population in endemic regions; the association has been largely ignored owing to the lack of availability of presurgical work-up facilities in these regions. Finally, from a clinical standpoint of presurgical evaluation, patients with CNL and HS should be evaluated on a case by case basis owing to disparate settings underlying the association. PMID:24791092

Therapists' causal attributions of clients' problems and selection of intervention strategies.

PubMed

Royce, W S; Muehlke, C V

1991-04-01

Therapists' choices of intervention strategies are influenced by many factors, including judgments about the bases of clients' problems. To assess the relationships between such causal attributions and the selection of intervention strategies, 196 counselors, psychologists, and social workers responded to the written transcript of a client's interview by answering two questionnaires, a 1982 scale (Causal Dimension Scale by Russell) which measured causal attribution of the client's problem, and another which measured preference for emotional, rational, and active intervention strategies in dealing with the client, based on the 1979 E-R-A taxonomy of Frey and Raming. A significant relationship was found between the two sets of variables, with internal attributions linked to rational intervention strategies and stable attributions linked to active strategies. The results support Halleck's 1978 hypothesis that theories of psychotherapy tie interventions to etiological considerations.

Universal behavior of generalized causal set d’Alembertians in curved spacetime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belenchia, Alessio

2016-07-01

Causal set non-local wave operators allow both for the definition of an action for causal set theory and the study of deviations from local physics that may have interesting phenomenological consequences. It was previously shown that, in all dimensions, the (unique) minimal discrete operators give averaged continuum non-local operators that reduce to \\square -R/2 in the local limit. Recently, dropping the constraint of minimality, it was shown that there exist an infinite number of discrete operators satisfying basic physical requirements and with the right local limit in flat spacetime. In this work, we consider this entire class of generalized causal set d’Alembertins in curved spacetimes and extend to them the result about the universality of the -R/2 factor. Finally, we comment on the relation of this result to the Einstein equivalence principle.

Political Attitudes Develop Independently of Personality Traits

PubMed Central

Hatemi, Peter K.; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area. PMID:25734580

Political attitudes develop independently of personality traits.

PubMed

Hatemi, Peter K; Verhulst, Brad

2015-01-01

The primary assumption within the recent personality and political orientations literature is that personality traits cause people to develop political attitudes. In contrast, research relying on traditional psychological and developmental theories suggests the relationship between most personality dimensions and political orientations are either not significant or weak. Research from behavioral genetics suggests the covariance between personality and political preferences is not causal, but due to a common, latent genetic factor that mutually influences both. The contradictory assumptions and findings from these research streams have yet to be resolved. This is in part due to the reliance on cross-sectional data and the lack of longitudinal genetically informative data. Here, using two independent longitudinal genetically informative samples, we examine the joint development of personality traits and attitude dimensions to explore the underlying causal mechanisms that drive the relationship between these features and provide a first step in resolving the causal question. We find change in personality over a ten-year period does not predict change in political attitudes, which does not support a causal relationship between personality traits and political attitudes as is frequently assumed. Rather, political attitudes are often more stable than the key personality traits assumed to be predicting them. Finally, the results from our genetic models find that no additional variance is accounted for by the causal pathway from personality traits to political attitudes. Our findings remain consistent with the original construction of the five-factor model of personality and developmental theories on attitude formation, but challenge recent work in this area.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms and Low Educational Achievement: Evidence Supporting A Causal Hypothesis.

PubMed

de Zeeuw, Eveline L; van Beijsterveldt, Catharina E M; Ehli, Erik A; de Geus, Eco J C; Boomsma, Dorret I

2017-05-01

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and educational achievement are negatively associated in children. Here we test the hypothesis that there is a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement. The causal effect is tested in a genetically sensitive design to exclude the possibility of confounding by a third factor (e.g. genetic pleiotropy) and by comparing educational achievement and secondary school career in children with ADHD who take or do not take methylphenidate. Data on ADHD symptoms, educational achievement and methylphenidate usage were available in a primary school sample of ~10,000 12-year-old twins from the Netherlands Twin Register. A substantial group also had longitudinal data at ages 7-12 years. ADHD symptoms were cross-sectionally and longitudinally, associated with lower educational achievement at age 12. More ADHD symptoms predicted a lower-level future secondary school career at age 14-16. In both the cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses, testing the direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement, while controlling for genetic and environmental factors, revealed an association between ADHD symptoms and educational achievement independent of genetic and environmental pleiotropy. These findings were confirmed in MZ twin intra-pair differences models, twins with more ADHD symptoms scored lower on educational achievement than their co-twins. Furthermore, children with ADHD medication, scored significantly higher on the educational achievement test than children with ADHD who did not use medication. Taken together, the results are consistent with a direct causal effect of ADHD on educational achievement.

A genetically informative developmental study of the relationship between conduct disorder and peer deviance in males

PubMed Central

Kendler, K. S.; Jacobson, K.; Myers, J. M.; Eaves, L. J.

2014-01-01

Background Conduct disorder (CD) and peer deviance (PD) both powerfully predict future externalizing behaviors. Although levels of CD and PD are strongly correlated, the causal relationship between them has remained controversial and has not been examined by a genetically informative study. Method Levels of CD and PD were assessed in 746 adult male–male twin pairs at personal interview for ages 8–11, 12–14 and 15–17 years using a life history calendar. Model fitting was performed using the Mx program. Results The best-fit model indicated an active developmental relationship between CD and PD including forward transmission of both traits over time and strong causal relationships between CD and PD within time periods. The best-fit model indicated that the causal relationship for genetic risk factors was from CD to PD and was constant over time. For common environmental factors, the causal pathways ran from PD to CD and were stronger in earlier than later age periods. Conclusions A genetically informative model revealed causal pathways difficult to elucidate by other methods. Genes influence risk for CD, which, through social selection, impacts on the deviance of peers. Shared environment, through family and community processes, encourages or discourages adolescent deviant behavior, which, via social influence, alters risk for CD. Social influence is more important than social selection in childhood, but by late adolescence social selection becomes predominant. These findings have implications for prevention efforts for CD and associated externalizing disorders. PMID:17935643

Using HFACS-Healthcare to Identify Systemic Vulnerabilities During Surgery.

PubMed

Cohen, Tara N; Francis, Sarah E; Wiegmann, Douglas A; Shappell, Scott A; Gewertz, Bruce L

2018-03-01

The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Healthcare (HFACS-Healthcare) was used to classify surgical near miss events reported via a hospital's event reporting system over the course of 1 year. Two trained analysts identified causal factors within each event narrative and subsequently categorized the events using HFACS-Healthcare. Of 910 original events, 592 could be analyzed further using HFACS-Healthcare, resulting in the identification of 726 causal factors. Most issues (n = 436, 60.00%) involved preconditions for unsafe acts, followed by unsafe acts (n = 257, 35.39%), organizational influences (n = 27, 3.72%), and supervisory factors (n = 6, 0.82%). These findings go beyond the traditional methods of trending incident data that typically focus on documenting the frequency of their occurrence. Analyzing near misses based on their underlying contributing human factors affords a greater opportunity to develop process improvements to reduce reoccurrence and better provide patient safety approaches.

Molecular epidemiology of acute leukemia in children: causal model, interaction of three factors-susceptibility, environmental exposure and vulnerability period.

PubMed

Mejía-Aranguré, Juan Manuel

Acute leukemias have a huge morphological, cytogenetic and molecular heterogeneity and genetic polymorphisms associated with susceptibility. Every leukemia presents causal factors associated with the development of the disease. Particularly, when three factors are present, they result in the development of acute leukemia. These phenomena are susceptibility, environmental exposure and a period that, for this model, has been called the period of vulnerability. This framework shows how the concepts of molecular epidemiology have established a reference from which it is more feasible to identify the environmental factors associated with the development of leukemia in children. Subsequently, the arguments show that only susceptible children are likely to develop leukemia once exposed to an environmental factor. For additional exposure, if the child is not susceptible to leukemia, the disease does not develop. In addition, this exposure should occur during a time window when hematopoietic cells and their environment are more vulnerable to such interaction, causing the development of leukemia. This model seeks to predict the time when the leukemia develops and attempts to give a context in which the causality of childhood leukemia should be studied. This information can influence and reduce the risk of a child developing leukemia. Copyright © 2016 Hospital Infantil de México Federico Gómez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use.

PubMed

Edwards, Alexis C; Maes, Hermine H; Prescott, Carol A; Kendler, Kenneth S

2015-02-01

Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one's peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. This study uses data from a sample of male twins (N = 1,790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers' alcohol-related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12 to 25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare 3 plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Model fitting indicated that one's own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one's peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Peers' alcohol use behaviors and one's own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. Copyright © 2015 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

Multiple mechanisms influencing the relationship between alcohol consumption and peer alcohol use

PubMed Central

Edwards, Alexis C.; Maesr, Hermine H.; Prescott, Carol A.; Kendler, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Background Alcohol consumption is typically correlated with the alcohol use behaviors of one’s peers. Previous research has suggested that this positive relationship could be due to social selection, social influence, or a combination of both processes. However, few studies have considered the role of shared genetic and environmental influences in conjunction with causal processes. Methods The current study uses data from a sample of male twins (N=1790) who provided retrospective reports of their own alcohol consumption and their peers’ alcohol related behaviors, from adolescence into young adulthood (ages 12–25). Structural equation modeling was employed to compare three plausible models of genetic and environmental influences on the relationship between phenotypes over time. Results Model fitting indicated that one’s own alcohol consumption and the alcohol use of one’s peers are related through both genetic and shared environmental factors and through unique environmental causal influences. The relative magnitude of these factors, and their contribution to covariation, changed over time, with genetic factors becoming more meaningful later in development. Conclusions Peers’ alcohol use behaviors and one’s own alcohol consumption are related through a complex combination of genetic and environmental factors that act via correlated factors and the complementary causal mechanisms of social selection and influence. Understanding these processes can inform risk assessment as well as improve our ability to model the development of alcohol use. PMID:25597346

Safety compliance and safety climate: A repeated cross-sectional study in the oil and gas industry.

PubMed

Kvalheim, Sverre A; Dahl, Øyvind

2016-12-01

Violations of safety rules and procedures are commonly identified as a causal factor in accidents in the oil and gas industry. Extensive knowledge on effective management practices related to improved compliance with safety procedures is therefore needed. Previous studies of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance demonstrate that the propensity to act in accordance with prevailing rules and procedures is influenced to a large degree by workers' safety climate. Commonly, the climate measures employed differ from one study to another and identical measures of safety climate are seldom tested repeatedly over extended periods of time. This research gap is addressed in the present study. The study is based on a survey conducted four times among sharp-end workers of the Norwegian oil and gas industry (N=31,350). This is done by performing multiple tests (regression analysis) over a period of 7years of the causal relationship between safety climate and safety compliance. The safety climate measure employed is identical across the 7-year period. Taking all periods together, the employed safety climate model explained roughly 27% of the variance in safety compliance. The causal relationship was found to be stable across the period, thereby increasing the reliability and the predictive validity of the factor structure. The safety climate factor that had the most powerful effect on safety compliance was work pressure. The factor structure employed shows high predictive validity and should therefore be relevant to organizations seeking to improve safety in the petroleum sector. The findings should also be relevant to other high-hazard industries where safety rules and procedures constitute a central part of the approach to managing safety. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

PubMed Central

KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

2015-01-01

Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P< 0.05). Family support, as family factor, and wage, as individual factor had direct effect to stress (P < 0.05). Both family support and wage were the causal endogenous variables. Conclusion: Job & environmental condition and periods of duty were increased so that it associated with occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371

Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort

PubMed Central

Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J.; Beresford, Shirley A.A.; Wang, Catharine

2015-01-01

Objective Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Design Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Main Outcome Measures Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Results Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Conclusion Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors. PMID:26542069

Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Chris W.; Oltedal, H. A.; Holloway, C. M.

2012-01-01

Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

Synthetic Vision CFIT Experiments for GA and Commercial Aircraft: "A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Lives"

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Hughes, Monica F.; Arthur, Jarvis J., III; Kramer, Lynda J.; Glaab, Louis J.; Bailey, Randy E.; Parrish, Russell V.; Uenking, Michael D.

2003-01-01

Because restricted visibility has been implicated in the majority of commercial and general aviation accidents, solutions will need to focus on how to enhance safety during instrument meteorological conditions (IMC). The NASA Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) project is developing technologies to help achieve these goals through the synthetic presentation of how the outside world would look to the pilot if vision were not reduced. The potential safety outcome would be a significant reduction in several accident categories, such as controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT), that have restricted visibility as a causal factor. The paper describes two experiments that demonstrated the efficacy of synthetic vision technology to prevent CFIT accidents for both general aviation and commercial aircraft.

UNRECOGNIZED OR POTENTIAL RISK FACTORS FOR CHILDHOOD CANCER

EPA Science Inventory

Traditional epidemiological studies suggest that the contribution of environmental agents to childhood cancer may be minor. However, epidemiological methods can only seldom identify causal factors associated with a relative risk of less than a factor of one and a half to two. App...

Drug- and Herb-Induced Liver Injury in Clinical and Translational Hepatology: Causality Assessment Methods, Quo Vadis?

PubMed Central

Eickhoff, Axel; Schulze, Johannes

2013-01-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) and herb-induced liver injury (HILI) are typical diseases of clinical and translational hepatology. Their diagnosis is complex and requires an experienced clinician to translate basic science into clinical judgment and identify a valid causality algorithm. To prospectively assess causality starting on the day DILI or HILI is suspected, the best approach for physicians is to use the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) scale in its original or preferably its updated version. The CIOMS scale is validated, liver-specific, structured, and quantitative, providing final causality grades based on scores of specific items for individual patients. These items include latency period, decline in liver values after treatment cessation, risk factors, co-medication, alternative diagnoses, hepatotoxicity track record of the suspected product, and unintentional re-exposure. Provided causality is established as probable or highly probable, data of the CIOMS scale with all individual items, a short clinical report, and complete raw data should be transmitted to the regulatory agencies, manufacturers, expert panels, and possibly to the scientific community for further refinement of the causality evaluation in a setting of retrospective expert opinion. Good-quality case data combined with thorough CIOMS-based assessment as a standardized approach should avert subsequent necessity for other complex causality assessment methods that may have inter-rater problems because of poor-quality data. In the future, the CIOMS scale will continue to be the preferred tool to assess causality of DILI and HILI cases and should be used consistently, both prospectively by physicians, and retrospectively for subsequent expert opinion if needed. For comparability and international harmonization, all parties assessing causality in DILI and HILI cases should attempt this standardized approach using the updated CIOMS scale. PMID:26357608

Direct and indirect influences of childhood abuse on depression symptoms in patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Hayashi, Yumi; Okamoto, Yasumasa; Takagaki, Koki; Okada, Go; Toki, Shigeru; Inoue, Takeshi; Tanabe, Hajime; Kobayakawa, Makoto; Yamawaki, Shigeto

2015-10-14

It is known that the onset, progression, and prognosis of major depressive disorder are affected by interactions between a number of factors. This study investigated how childhood abuse, personality, and stress of life events were associated with symptoms of depression in depressed people. Patients with major depressive disorder (N = 113, 58 women and 55 men) completed the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II), the Neuroticism Extroversion Openness Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI), the Child Abuse and Trauma Scale (CATS), and the Life Experiences Survey (LES), which are self-report scales. Results were analyzed with correlation analysis and structural equation modeling (SEM), by using SPSS AMOS 21.0. Childhood abuse directly predicted the severity of depression and indirectly predicted the severity of depression through the mediation of personality. Negative life change score of the LES was affected by childhood abuse, however it did not predict the severity of depression. This study is the first to report a relationship between childhood abuse, personality, adulthood life stresses and the severity of depression in depressed patients. Childhood abuse directly and indirectly predicted the severity of depression. These results suggest the need for clinicians to be receptive to the possibility of childhood abuse in patients suffering from depression. SEM is a procedure used for hypothesis modeling and not for causal modeling. Therefore, the possibility of developing more appropriate models that include other variables cannot be excluded.

Exploring culture-specific differences in beliefs about causes, kinship and the heritability of major depressive disorder: the views of Anglo-Celtic and Chinese-Australians.

PubMed

Xu, Mimi; Zou, Lilian; Wilde, Alex; Meiser, Bettina; Barlow-Stewart, Kristine; Chan, Bibiana; Mitchell, Philip B; Sousa, Mariana S; Schofield, Peter R

2013-10-01

The aim of this study was to explore cultural differences in causal attributions and beliefs about heritability of major depressive disorder (MDD). Face-to-face interviews with Anglo-Celtic- and Chinese-Australians community members with a family history of MDD were conducted and subjected to a rigorous qualitative analysis, using the computer software NVivo. Sixteen Anglo-Celtic-Australians and 16 Chinese-Australians were interviewed. Both groups believed that a combination of genetic and environmental factors contributed to MDD, that stress was an important cause of MDD, and that coping factors were significant moderators of the impact of stress on MDD. Both cultural groups believed that the causes of MDD affecting multiple family members included a shared family environment and a "contagion effect", in addition to genetics. Unique to the Chinese-Australian group was the beliefs that parental pressures to exceed academically contributed to MDD; this cultural group also reported beliefs that depression was due to God's will or alternatively fate, which in turn was related to attributions to feng shui and auspicious dates. This study documented key culture-specific differences in beliefs about causes and inheritance of MDD; such differences have major implications for clinician-patient communication about genetic risk associated with having a family history of MDD.

The renaissance of lipoprotein(a): Brave new world for preventive cardiology?

PubMed

Ellis, Katrina L; Boffa, Michael B; Sahebkar, Amirhossein; Koschinsky, Marlys L; Watts, Gerald F

2017-10-01

Lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] is a highly heritable cardiovascular risk factor. Although discovered more than 50 years ago, Lp(a) has recently re-emerged as a major focus in the fields of lipidology and preventive cardiology owing to findings from genetic studies and the possibility of lowering elevated plasma concentrations with new antisense therapy. Data from genetic, epidemiological and clinical studies have provided compelling evidence establishing Lp(a) as a causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Nevertheless, major gaps in knowledge remain and the identification of the mechanistic processes governing both Lp(a) pathobiology and metabolism are an ongoing challenge. Furthermore, the complex structure of Lp(a) presents a major obstacle to the accurate quantification of plasma concentrations, and a universally accepted and standardized approach for measuring Lp(a) is required. Significant progress has been made in the development of novel therapeutics for selectively lowering Lp(a). However, before these therapies can be widely implemented further investigations are required to assess their efficacy, safety, and cost-efficiency in the prevention of cardiovascular events. We review recent advances in molecular and biochemical aspects, epidemiology, and pathobiology of Lp(a), and provide a contemporary update on the significance of Lp(a) in clinical medicine. "Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be." (Khalil Gibran). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Urbanization and non-communicable disease in Southeast Asia: a review of current evidence.

PubMed

Angkurawaranon, C; Jiraporncharoen, W; Chenthanakij, B; Doyle, P; Nitsch, D

2014-10-01

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have been highlighted as a major public health issue in the Southeast (SE) Asian region. One of the major socio-environmental factors that are considered to be associated with such a rise in NCDs is urbanization. Urbanization is associated with behavioural changes such as eating an unhealthy diet, and a decrease in physical activities, which may result in associated obesity. The SE Asian region also has a substantive burden of infectious disease such as HIV and malaria, which may modify associations between urbanization and development of NCDs. A systematic review was conducted until April 2013. Using four databases: EMBASE, PubMed, GlobalHealth and DigitalJournal, the systematic review pools existing evidence on urban-rural gradients in NCD prevalence/incidence. The study found that in SE Asia, urban exposure was positively associated with coronary heart disease, diabetes and respiratory diseases in children. Urban exposure was negatively associated with rheumatic heart diseases. The stages of economic development may also modify the association between urbanization and NCDs such as diabetes. There was pronounced heterogeneity between associations. It is recommended that future studies examine the major constituents of NCDs separately and also focus on the interplay between lifestyle and infectious risk factors for NCDs. Prospective studies are needed to understand the diverse causal pathways between urbanization and NCDs in SE Asia.

Inferring Causalities in Landscape Genetics: An Extension of Wright's Causal Modeling to Distance Matrices.

PubMed

Fourtune, Lisa; Prunier, Jérôme G; Paz-Vinas, Ivan; Loot, Géraldine; Veyssière, Charlotte; Blanchet, Simon

2018-04-01

Identifying landscape features that affect functional connectivity among populations is a major challenge in fundamental and applied sciences. Landscape genetics combines landscape and genetic data to address this issue, with the main objective of disentangling direct and indirect relationships among an intricate set of variables. Causal modeling has strong potential to address the complex nature of landscape genetic data sets. However, this statistical approach was not initially developed to address the pairwise distance matrices commonly used in landscape genetics. Here, we aimed to extend the applicability of two causal modeling methods-that is, maximum-likelihood path analysis and the directional separation test-by developing statistical approaches aimed at handling distance matrices and improving functional connectivity inference. Using simulations, we showed that these approaches greatly improved the robustness of the absolute (using a frequentist approach) and relative (using an information-theoretic approach) fits of the tested models. We used an empirical data set combining genetic information on a freshwater fish species (Gobio occitaniae) and detailed landscape descriptors to demonstrate the usefulness of causal modeling to identify functional connectivity in wild populations. Specifically, we demonstrated how direct and indirect relationships involving altitude, temperature, and oxygen concentration influenced within- and between-population genetic diversity of G. occitaniae.

Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kane, Kenneth Paul

1989-01-01

A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.

Draft Genome Sequences of Two Isolates of Colletotrichum lindemuthianum, the Causal Agent of Anthracnose in Common Beans.

PubMed

de Queiroz, Casley Borges; Correia, Hilberty L Nunes; Menicucci, Renato Pedrozo; Vidigal, Pedro M Pereira; de Queiroz, Marisa Vieira

2017-05-04

Colletotrichum lindemuthianum is the causal agent of anthracnose in common beans, one of the main limiting factors of their culture. Here, we report for the first time, to our knowledge, a draft of the complete genome sequences of two isolates belonging to 83.501 and 89 A 2 2-3 of C. lindemutuianum . Copyright © 2017 de Queiroz et al.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

PubMed

Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-03-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system

PubMed Central

Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

2018-01-01

Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion. PMID:29657804

Prenatal nutrition, epigenetics and schizophrenia risk: can we test causal effects?

PubMed

Kirkbride, James B; Susser, Ezra; Kundakovic, Marija; Kresovich, Jacob K; Davey Smith, George; Relton, Caroline L

2012-06-01

We posit that maternal prenatal nutrition can influence offspring schizophrenia risk via epigenetic effects. In this article, we consider evidence that prenatal nutrition is linked to epigenetic outcomes in offspring and schizophrenia in offspring, and that schizophrenia is associated with epigenetic changes. We focus upon one-carbon metabolism as a mediator of the pathway between perturbed prenatal nutrition and the subsequent risk of schizophrenia. Although post-mortem human studies demonstrate DNA methylation changes in brains of people with schizophrenia, such studies cannot establish causality. We suggest a testable hypothesis that utilizes a novel two-step Mendelian randomization approach, to test the component parts of the proposed causal pathway leading from prenatal nutritional exposure to schizophrenia. Applied here to a specific example, such an approach is applicable for wider use to strengthen causal inference of the mediating role of epigenetic factors linking exposures to health outcomes in population-based studies.

Multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors in Ghana.

PubMed

Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-05-01

The fundamental goal of the Government of Ghana's development agenda as enshrined in the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy to grow the economy to a middle income status of US$1000 per capita by the end of 2015 could be met by increasing the labour force, increasing energy supplies and expanding the energy infrastructure in order to achieve the sustainable development targets. In this study, a multivariate co-integration analysis of the Kaya factors namely carbon dioxide, total primary energy consumption, population and GDP was investigated in Ghana using vector error correction model with data spanning from 1980 to 2012. Our research results show an existence of long-run causality running from population, GDP and total primary energy consumption to carbon dioxide emissions. However, there is evidence of short-run causality running from population to carbon dioxide emissions. There was a bi-directional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy consumption and vice versa. In other words, decreasing the primary energy consumption in Ghana will directly reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, a bi-directional causality running from GDP to energy consumption and vice versa exists in the multivariate model. It is plausible that access to energy has a relationship with increasing economic growth and productivity in Ghana.

Research designs and making causal inferences from health care studies.

PubMed

Flannelly, Kevin J; Jankowski, Katherine R B

2014-01-01

This article summarizes the major types of research designs used in healthcare research, including experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational studies. Observational studies are divided into survey studies (descriptive and correlational studies), case-studies and analytic studies, the last of which are commonly used in epidemiology: case-control, retrospective cohort, and prospective cohort studies. Similarities and differences among the research designs are described and the relative strength of evidence they provide is discussed. Emphasis is placed on five criteria for drawing causal inferences that are derived from the writings of the philosopher John Stuart Mill, especially his methods or canons. The application of the criteria to experimentation is explained. Particular attention is given to the degree to which different designs meet the five criteria for making causal inferences. Examples of specific studies that have used various designs in chaplaincy research are provided.

Causality in medicine: the case of tumours and viruses.

PubMed Central

Vonka, V

2000-01-01

Clarification of the aetiology of chronic human diseases such as atherosclerosis or cancer is one of the dominant topics in contemporary medical research. It is believed that identification of the causal factors will enable more efficient prevention and diagnosis of these diseases and, in some instances, also permit more effective therapy. The task is difficult because of the multistep and multifactorial origin of these diseases. A special case in contemporary aetiological studies is definition of the role of viruses in the pathogenesis of human cancer. Virus-associated cancer develops only in a small minority of infected subjects, which implies that, if the virus does play a role in the pathogenesis of the malignancy, other factors must also be involved. In this paper the author attempts to review the present methodological approaches to aetiological studies of chronic diseases, discusses the role of criteria for identifying causal relationships and proposes guidelines that might help to determine the role of viruses in human cancer. PMID:11205344

Supporting inquiry learning by promoting normative understanding of multivariable causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keselman, Alla

2003-11-01

Early adolescents may lack the cognitive and metacognitive skills necessary for effective inquiry learning. In particular, they are likely to have a nonnormative mental model of multivariable causality in which effects of individual variables are neither additive nor consistent. Described here is a software-based intervention designed to facilitate students' metalevel and performance-level inquiry skills by enhancing their understanding of multivariable causality. Relative to an exploration-only group, sixth graders who practiced predicting an outcome (earthquake risk) based on multiple factors demonstrated increased attention to evidence, improved metalevel appreciation of effective strategies, and a trend toward consistent use of a controlled comparison strategy. Sixth graders who also received explicit instruction in making predictions based on multiple factors showed additional improvement in their ability to compare multiple instances as a basis for inferences and constructed the most accurate knowledge of the system. Gains were maintained in transfer tasks. The cognitive skills and metalevel understanding examined here are essential to inquiry learning.

Granger causality network reconstruction of conductance-based integrate-and-fire neuronal systems.

PubMed

Zhou, Douglas; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhang, Yaoyu; Xu, Zhiqin; Cai, David

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of anatomical connectivity from measured dynamical activities of coupled neurons is one of the fundamental issues in the understanding of structure-function relationship of neuronal circuitry. Many approaches have been developed to address this issue based on either electrical or metabolic data observed in experiment. The Granger causality (GC) analysis remains one of the major approaches to explore the dynamical causal connectivity among individual neurons or neuronal populations. However, it is yet to be clarified how such causal connectivity, i.e., the GC connectivity, can be mapped to the underlying anatomical connectivity in neuronal networks. We perform the GC analysis on the conductance-based integrate-and-fire (I&F) neuronal networks to obtain their causal connectivity. Through numerical experiments, we find that the underlying synaptic connectivity amongst individual neurons or subnetworks, can be successfully reconstructed by the GC connectivity constructed from voltage time series. Furthermore, this reconstruction is insensitive to dynamical regimes and can be achieved without perturbing systems and prior knowledge of neuronal model parameters. Surprisingly, the synaptic connectivity can even be reconstructed by merely knowing the raster of systems, i.e., spike timing of neurons. Using spike-triggered correlation techniques, we establish a direct mapping between the causal connectivity and the synaptic connectivity for the conductance-based I&F neuronal networks, and show the GC is quadratically related to the coupling strength. The theoretical approach we develop here may provide a framework for examining the validity of the GC analysis in other settings.

Granger Causality Network Reconstruction of Conductance-Based Integrate-and-Fire Neuronal Systems

PubMed Central

Zhou, Douglas; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhang, Yaoyu; Xu, Zhiqin; Cai, David

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of anatomical connectivity from measured dynamical activities of coupled neurons is one of the fundamental issues in the understanding of structure-function relationship of neuronal circuitry. Many approaches have been developed to address this issue based on either electrical or metabolic data observed in experiment. The Granger causality (GC) analysis remains one of the major approaches to explore the dynamical causal connectivity among individual neurons or neuronal populations. However, it is yet to be clarified how such causal connectivity, i.e., the GC connectivity, can be mapped to the underlying anatomical connectivity in neuronal networks. We perform the GC analysis on the conductance-based integrate-and-fire (IF) neuronal networks to obtain their causal connectivity. Through numerical experiments, we find that the underlying synaptic connectivity amongst individual neurons or subnetworks, can be successfully reconstructed by the GC connectivity constructed from voltage time series. Furthermore, this reconstruction is insensitive to dynamical regimes and can be achieved without perturbing systems and prior knowledge of neuronal model parameters. Surprisingly, the synaptic connectivity can even be reconstructed by merely knowing the raster of systems, i.e., spike timing of neurons. Using spike-triggered correlation techniques, we establish a direct mapping between the causal connectivity and the synaptic connectivity for the conductance-based IF neuronal networks, and show the GC is quadratically related to the coupling strength. The theoretical approach we develop here may provide a framework for examining the validity of the GC analysis in other settings. PMID:24586285

Your visual system provides all the information you need to make moral judgments about generic visual events.

PubMed

De Freitas, Julian; Alvarez, George A

2018-05-28

To what extent are people's moral judgments susceptible to subtle factors of which they are unaware? Here we show that we can change people's moral judgments outside of their awareness by subtly biasing perceived causality. Specifically, we used subtle visual manipulations to create visual illusions of causality in morally relevant scenarios, and this systematically changed people's moral judgments. After demonstrating the basic effect using simple displays involving an ambiguous car collision that ends up injuring a person (E1), we show that the effect is sensitive on the millisecond timescale to manipulations of task-irrelevant factors that are known to affect perceived causality, including the duration (E2a) and asynchrony (E2b) of specific task-irrelevant contextual factors in the display. We then conceptually replicate the effect using a different paradigm (E3a), and also show that we can eliminate the effect by interfering with motion processing (E3b). Finally, we show that the effect generalizes across different kinds of moral judgments (E3c). Combined, these studies show that obligatory, abstract inferences made by the visual system influence moral judgments. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The social determinants of oral health: new approaches to conceptualizing and researching complex causal networks.

PubMed

Newton, J Timothy; Bower, Elizabeth J

2005-02-01

Oral epidemiological research into the social determinants of oral health has been limited by the absence of a theoretical framework which reflects the complexity of real life social processes and the network of causal pathways between social structure and oral health and disease. In the absence of such a framework, social determinants are treated as isolated risk factors, attributable to the individual, having a direct impact on oral health. There is little sense of how such factors interrelate over time and place and the pathways between the factors and oral health. Features of social life which impact on individuals' oral health but are not reducible to the individual remain under-researched. A conceptual framework informing mainstream epidemiological research into the social determinants of health is applied to oral epidemiology. The framework suggests complex causal pathways between social structure and health via interlinking material, psychosocial and behavioural pathways. Methodological implications for oral epidemiological research informed by the framework, such as the use of multilevel modelling, path analysis and structural equation modelling, combining qualitative and quantitative research methods, and collaborative research, are discussed. Copyright Blackwell Munksgaard, 2005.

Acausal measurement-based quantum computing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morimae, Tomoyuki

2014-07-01

In measurement-based quantum computing, there is a natural "causal cone" among qubits of the resource state, since the measurement angle on a qubit has to depend on previous measurement results in order to correct the effect of by-product operators. If we respect the no-signaling principle, by-product operators cannot be avoided. Here we study the possibility of acausal measurement-based quantum computing by using the process matrix framework [Oreshkov, Costa, and Brukner, Nat. Commun. 3, 1092 (2012), 10.1038/ncomms2076]. We construct a resource process matrix for acausal measurement-based quantum computing restricting local operations to projective measurements. The resource process matrix is an analog of the resource state of the standard causal measurement-based quantum computing. We find that if we restrict local operations to projective measurements the resource process matrix is (up to a normalization factor and trivial ancilla qubits) equivalent to the decorated graph state created from the graph state of the corresponding causal measurement-based quantum computing. We also show that it is possible to consider a causal game whose causal inequality is violated by acausal measurement-based quantum computing.

Young adults' reactions to infant crying.

PubMed

Cohen-Bendahan, C C C; van Doornen, L J P; de Weerth, C

2014-02-01

An infant's optimal development is determined to a great extent by the adequate and sensitive responses of the caregiver. The adequacy and sensitivity of a reaction to an infant in distress (i.e. crying) will partly depend on the causal attributions of the crying and on the individual's sympathy for the infant. Being female, prior caring experiences, and multiparity have shown to be linked to more sympathetic, tolerant and less hostile emotional responses to crying. However, little is known about other factors explaining inexperienced future caregivers' reactions to infant crying. The present paper's goal is to shed more light on the subject by looking at how personality factors, caregiving interest, sex, promptness of the reaction, and gender identity are related to emotional reactions and causal attributions to crying in a population of young adults without children. One hundred and ninety-one childless university students participated (126 females; ages 18-35 years). The participants completed questionnaires on personality, gender identity and caregiving interest, and listened to an audio sample of an infant crying, reporting their emotions and their causal attributions to the crying. The results showed that experiencing anger was associated with more child-blaming attributions to the crying, while quickness of response and feelings of sympathy predicted more child-oriented attributions. The latter was stronger in males. Explicit care interest decreased child-blaming causal attributions more for men than for the women. Interestingly, solely in the females' personality factors neuroticism and conscientiousness played a role in child blaming attributions together with anger. These findings suggest that the motives that young adults attribute to a crying infant depend in males on the emotions triggered by the crying, responsiveness and care interest. While in females, emotions, responsiveness and personality affect the causal attribution to the crying. Future research is needed in order to determine whether these attributions are also linked to young adults' actual behaviour towards a crying infant. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An empirical study of experiential value and lifestyles and their effects on satisfaction in adolescents: an example using online gaming.

PubMed

Shieh, Kwei-Fen; Cheng, Ming-Sung

2007-01-01

This study tests a consumer behavioral model on Taiwanese adolescents and young adults engaging in online gaming. The major focus is on how these consumers transfer the value of their experiences and lifestyles to satisfaction, which may assist in the further exploration of the specific consumption behavior characteristics of adolescents and young adults, particularly with regard to their social functioning and deep-seated psychological needs. Using a two-stage sampling design process, data were collected on a total of 211 consumers, with the statistical analysis methods adopted for this study including a reliability test, confirmatory factor analysis, and LISREL analysis. Our results indicate that causal relationships hold in certain experiential value and lifestyle constructs. In particular, two experiential value constructs (social function, empathy and escapism) and two lifestyle constructs (pursuit of recreation and taste for life, reference group) play major roles that affect satisfaction among adolescents and young adults in online gaming in Taiwan.

Causal Inference for fMRI Time Series Data with Systematic Errors of Measurement in a Balanced On/Off Study of Social Evaluative Threat.

PubMed

Sobel, Michael E; Lindquist, Martin A

2014-07-01

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has facilitated major advances in understanding human brain function. Neuroscientists are interested in using fMRI to study the effects of external stimuli on brain activity and causal relationships among brain regions, but have not stated what is meant by causation or defined the effects they purport to estimate. Building on Rubin's causal model, we construct a framework for causal inference using blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) fMRI time series data. In the usual statistical literature on causal inference, potential outcomes, assumed to be measured without systematic error, are used to define unit and average causal effects. However, in general the potential BOLD responses are measured with stimulus dependent systematic error. Thus we define unit and average causal effects that are free of systematic error. In contrast to the usual case of a randomized experiment where adjustment for intermediate outcomes leads to biased estimates of treatment effects (Rosenbaum, 1984), here the failure to adjust for task dependent systematic error leads to biased estimates. We therefore adjust for systematic error using measured "noise covariates" , using a linear mixed model to estimate the effects and the systematic error. Our results are important for neuroscientists, who typically do not adjust for systematic error. They should also prove useful to researchers in other areas where responses are measured with error and in fields where large amounts of data are collected on relatively few subjects. To illustrate our approach, we re-analyze data from a social evaluative threat task, comparing the findings with results that ignore systematic error.

Post-traumatic stress disorder and cardiometabolic disease: improving causal inference to inform practice.

PubMed

Koenen, K C; Sumner, J A; Gilsanz, P; Glymour, M M; Ratanatharathorn, A; Rimm, E B; Roberts, A L; Winning, A; Kubzansky, L D

2017-01-01

Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been declared 'a life sentence' based on evidence that the disorder leads to a host of physical health problems. Some of the strongest empirical research - in terms of methodology and findings - has shown that PTSD predicts higher risk of cardiometabolic diseases, specifically cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Despite mounting evidence, PTSD is not currently acknowledged as a risk factor by cardiovascular or endocrinological medicine. This view is unlikely to change absent compelling evidence that PTSD causally contributes to cardiometabolic disease. This review suggests that with developments in methods for epidemiological research and the rapidly expanding knowledge of the behavioral and biological effects of PTSD the field is poised to provide more definitive answers to questions of causality. First, we discuss methods to improve causal inference using the observational data most often used in studies of PTSD and health, with particular reference to issues of temporality and confounding. Second, we consider recent work linking PTSD with specific behaviors and biological processes, and evaluate whether these may plausibly serve as mechanisms by which PTSD leads to cardiometabolic disease. Third, we evaluate how looking more comprehensively into the PTSD phenotype provides insight into whether specific aspects of PTSD phenomenology are particularly relevant to cardiometabolic disease. Finally, we discuss new areas of research that are feasible and could enhance understanding of the PTSD-cardiometabolic relationship, such as testing whether treatment of PTSD can halt or even reverse the cardiometabolic risk factors causally related to CVD and T2D.

Efficient and accurate causal inference with hidden confounders from genome-transcriptome variation data

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mapping gene expression as a quantitative trait using whole genome-sequencing and transcriptome analysis allows to discover the functional consequences of genetic variation. We developed a novel method and ultra-fast software Findr for higly accurate causal inference between gene expression traits using cis-regulatory DNA variations as causal anchors, which improves current methods by taking into consideration hidden confounders and weak regulations. Findr outperformed existing methods on the DREAM5 Systems Genetics challenge and on the prediction of microRNA and transcription factor targets in human lymphoblastoid cells, while being nearly a million times faster. Findr is publicly available at https://github.com/lingfeiwang/findr. PMID:28821014

Beyond Scientism and Skepticism: An Integrative Approach to Global Mental Health

PubMed Central

Stein, Dan J.; Illes, Judy

2015-01-01

The global burden of disorders has shifted from infectious disease to non-communicable diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Whereas infectious disease can sometimes be combated by targeting single causal mechanisms, such as prevention of contact-spread illness by handwashing, in the case of mental disorders multiple causal mechanisms are typically relevant. The emergent field of global mental health has emphasized the magnitude of the treatment gap, particularly in the low- and middle-income world and has paid particular attention to upstream causal factors, for example, poverty, inequality, and gender discrimination in the pathogenesis of mental disorders. However, this field has also been criticized for relying erroneously on Western paradigms of mental illness, which may not be relevant or appropriate to the low- and middle-income context. Here, it is important to steer a path between scientism and skepticism. Scientism regards mental disorders as essential categories, and takes a covering law approach to causality; skepticism regards mental disorders as merely social constructions and emphasizes the role of political power in causal relations. We propose an integrative model that emphasizes the contribution of a broad range of causal mechanisms operating at biological and societal levels to mental disorders and the consequent importance of broad spectrum and multipronged approaches to intervention. PMID:26635641

Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness.

PubMed

Boruchovitch, E; Mednick, B R

2000-10-01

At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky). The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

Causal illusions in children when the outcome is frequent

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Causal illusions occur when people perceive a causal relation between two events that are actually unrelated. One factor that has been shown to promote these mistaken beliefs is the outcome probability. Thus, people tend to overestimate the strength of a causal relation when the potential consequence (i.e. the outcome) occurs with a high probability (outcome-density bias). Given that children and adults differ in several important features involved in causal judgment, including prior knowledge and basic cognitive skills, developmental studies can be considered an outstanding approach to detect and further explore the psychological processes and mechanisms underlying this bias. However, the outcome density bias has been mainly explored in adulthood, and no previous evidence for this bias has been reported in children. Thus, the purpose of this study was to extend outcome-density bias research to childhood. In two experiments, children between 6 and 8 years old were exposed to two similar setups, both showing a non-contingent relation between the potential cause and the outcome. These two scenarios differed only in the probability of the outcome, which could either be high or low. Children judged the relation between the two events to be stronger in the high probability of the outcome setting, revealing that, like adults, they develop causal illusions when the outcome is frequent. PMID:28898294

Globally conditioned Granger causality in brain–brain and brain–heart interactions: a combined heart rate variability/ultra-high-field (7 T) functional magnetic resonance imaging study

PubMed Central

Passamonti, Luca; Wald, Lawrence L.; Barbieri, Riccardo

2016-01-01

The causal, directed interactions between brain regions at rest (brain–brain networks) and between resting-state brain activity and autonomic nervous system (ANS) outflow (brain–heart links) have not been completely elucidated. We collected 7 T resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data with simultaneous respiration and heartbeat recordings in nine healthy volunteers to investigate (i) the causal interactions between cortical and subcortical brain regions at rest and (ii) the causal interactions between resting-state brain activity and the ANS as quantified through a probabilistic, point-process-based heartbeat model which generates dynamical estimates for sympathetic and parasympathetic activity as well as sympathovagal balance. Given the high amount of information shared between brain-derived signals, we compared the results of traditional bivariate Granger causality (GC) with a globally conditioned approach which evaluated the additional influence of each brain region on the causal target while factoring out effects concomitantly mediated by other brain regions. The bivariate approach resulted in a large number of possibly spurious causal brain–brain links, while, using the globally conditioned approach, we demonstrated the existence of significant selective causal links between cortical/subcortical brain regions and sympathetic and parasympathetic modulation as well as sympathovagal balance. In particular, we demonstrated a causal role of the amygdala, hypothalamus, brainstem and, among others, medial, middle and superior frontal gyri, superior temporal pole, paracentral lobule and cerebellar regions in modulating the so-called central autonomic network (CAN). In summary, we show that, provided proper conditioning is employed to eliminate spurious causalities, ultra-high-field functional imaging coupled with physiological signal acquisition and GC analysis is able to quantify directed brain–brain and brain–heart interactions reflecting central modulation of ANS outflow. PMID:27044985

Integrating channel form and processes in the Gangetic plains rivers: Implications for geomorphic diversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, N. G.; Sinha, R.

2018-02-01

Geomorphic diversity at a variety of spatial and temporal scales has been studied in the western Ganga plains (WGP), India, to isolate the dominating factors at each scale that have the potential to cause major geomorphic change. The Ganga River and its major tributaries draining the WGP have been investigated in terms of longitudinal, cross-sectional, and planform morphology to assess the influence of potential controls such as climate, geology, topography, land use, hydrology, and sediment transport. These data were then compared with those from the rivers draining the eastern Ganga plains (EGP) to understand the geomorphic diversity across the Ganga plains and the causal factors. Our investigations suggest that in-channel geomorphic diversity over decadal scale in rivers with low width-to-depth (W/D) ratio is caused by periodic incision/aggradation, but it is driven by channel avulsion in rivers characterized by high W/D ratio. Similarly, planform (reach-scale) parameters such as sinuosity and braid-channel-ratio are influenced by intrinsic factors such as changes in hydrological conditions and morphodynamics (cutoffs, small-scale avulsion) that are in turn impacted by natural and human-induced factors. Finally, we have isolated the climatic and hydrologic effects on the longitudinal profile concavity of alluvial trunk channels in tectonically stable and unstable landscapes. We demonstrate that the rivers flowing through a tectonically stable landscape are graded in nature where higher discharge tends to create more concave longitudinal profiles compared to those in tectonically unstable landscape at 103-year scale.

Neural correlates of depressive realism – An fMRI study on causal attribution in depression

PubMed Central

Seidel, Eva-Maria; Satterthwaite, Theodore D.; Eickhoff, Simon B.; Schneider, Frank; Gur, Ruben C.; Wolf, Daniel H.; Habel, Ute; Derntl, Birgit

2013-01-01

Background Biased causal attribution is a critical factor in the cognitive model of depression. Whereas depressed patients interpret events negatively, healthy people show a self-serving bias (internal attribution of positive events and external attribution of negative events). Methods Using fMRI, depressed patients (n=15) and healthy controls (n=15) were confronted with positive and negative social events and made causal attributions (internal vs. external). Functional data were analyzed using a mixed effects model. Results Behaviourally, controls showed a self-serving bias, whereas patients demonstrated a balanced attributional pattern. Analysis of functional data revealed a significant group difference in a fronto-temporal network. Higher activation of this network was associated with non self-serving attributions in controls but self-serving attributions in patients. Applying a psycho-physiological interaction analysis, we observed reduced coupling between a dorsomedial PFC seed region and limbic areas during self-serving attributions in patients compared to controls. Limitations Results of the PPI analysis are preliminary given the liberal statistical threshold. Conclusions The association of the behaviourally less frequent attributional pattern with activation in a fronto-temporal network suggests that non self-serving responses may produce a self-related response conflict in controls, while self-serving responses produce this conflict in patients. Moreover, attribution-modulated coupling between the dorsomedial PFC and limbic regions was weaker in patients than controls. This preliminary finding suggests that depression may be associated with disturbances in fronto-limbic coupling during attributional decisions. Our results implicate that treatment of major depression may benefit from approaches that facilitate reinterpretation of emotional events in a more positive, more self-serving way. PMID:22377511

Genome-wide association analysis and replication of coronary artery disease in South Korea suggests a causal variant common to diverse populations

PubMed Central

Cho, Eun Young; Jang, Yangsoo; Shin, Eun Soon; Jang, Hye Yoon; Yoo, Yeon-Kyeong; Kim, Sook; Jang, Ji Hyun; Lee, Ji Yeon; Yun, Min Hye; Park, Min Young; Chae, Jey Sook; Lim, Jin Woo; Shin, Dong Jik; Park, Sungha; Lee, Jong Ho; Han, Bok Ghee; Rae, Kim Hyung; Cardon, Lon R; Morris, Andrew P; Lee, Jong Eun; Clarke, Geraldine M

2010-01-01

Background Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified and replicated several genetic loci associated with the risk of development of coronary artery disease (CAD) in samples from populations of Caucasian and Asian descent. However, only chromosome 9p21 has been confirmed as a major susceptibility locus conferring risk for development of CAD across multiple ethnic groups. The authors aimed to find evidence of further similarities and differences in genetic risk of CAD between Korean and other populations. Methods The authors performed a GWA study comprising 230 cases and 290 controls from a Korean population typed on 490 032 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A total of 3148 SNPs were taken forward for genotyping in a subsequent replication study using an independent sample of 1172 cases and 1087 controls from the same population. Results The association previously observed on chromosome 9p21 was independently replicated (p=3.08e–07). Within this region, the same risk haplotype was observed in samples from both Korea and of Western European descent, suggesting that the causal mutation carried on this background occurred on a single ancestral allele. Other than 9p21, the authors were unable to replicate any of the previously reported signals for association with CAD. Furthermore, no evidence of association was found at chromosome 1q41 for risk of myocardial infarction, previously identified as conferring risk in a Japanese population. Conclusion A common causal variant is likely to be responsible for risk of CAD in Korean and Western European populations at chromosome 9p21.3. Further investigations are required to confirm non-replication of any other cross-race genetic risk factors. PMID:27325954

Identifying the effects of education on the ability to cope with a disability among individuals with disabilities.

PubMed

Bengtsson, Steen; Datta Gupta, Nabanita

2017-01-01

The literature on disability has suggested that an educated individual with a disability is more likely to better cope with her/his disability than those without education. However, few published studies explore whether the relationship between education and ability to cope with a disability is anything more than an association. Using data on disability and accommodation from a large Danish survey from 2012-13 and exploiting a major Danish schooling reform as a natural experiment, we identified a potential causal effect of education on both economic (holding a job) as well as social (cultural activities, visiting clubs/associations, etc.) dimensions of coping among individuals with a disability, controlling for background factors, functioning, and disability characteristics. We found that endogeneity bias was only present in the case of economic participation and more educated individuals with a disability indeed had higher levels of both economic and social coping. To some extent, having more knowledge of public support systems and higher motivation explained the better coping among the group of individuals with disabilities who were educated. Our results indicated, however, that a large part of the effect of education on the ability to cope with a disability among individuals with disabilities was suggestive of a causal relationship.

The NO/ONOO-Cycle as the Central Cause of Heart Failure

PubMed Central

Pall, Martin L.

2013-01-01

The NO/ONOO-cycle is a primarily local, biochemical vicious cycle mechanism, centered on elevated peroxynitrite and oxidative stress, but also involving 10 additional elements: NF-κB, inflammatory cytokines, iNOS, nitric oxide (NO), superoxide, mitochondrial dysfunction (lowered energy charge, ATP), NMDA activity, intracellular Ca2+, TRP receptors and tetrahydrobiopterin depletion. All 12 of these elements have causal roles in heart failure (HF) and each is linked through a total of 87 studies to specific correlates of HF. Two apparent causal factors of HF, RhoA and endothelin-1, each act as tissue-limited cycle elements. Nineteen stressors that initiate cases of HF, each act to raise multiple cycle elements, potentially initiating the cycle in this way. Different types of HF, left vs. right ventricular HF, with or without arrhythmia, etc., may differ from one another in the regions of the myocardium most impacted by the cycle. None of the elements of the cycle or the mechanisms linking them are original, but they collectively produce the robust nature of the NO/ONOO-cycle which creates a major challenge for treatment of HF or other proposed NO/ONOO-cycle diseases. Elevated peroxynitrite/NO ratio and consequent oxidative stress are essential to both HF and the NO/ONOO-cycle. PMID:24232452

Pathways from Cannabis to Psychosis: A Review of the Evidence

PubMed Central

Burns, Jonathan K.

2013-01-01

The nature of the relationship between cannabis use (CU) and psychosis is complex and remains unclear. Researchers and clinicians remain divided regarding key issues such as whether or not cannabis is an independent cause of psychosis and schizophrenia. This paper reviews the field in detail, examining questions of causality, the neurobiological basis for such causality and for differential inter-individual risk, the clinical and cognitive features of psychosis in cannabis users, and patterns of course and outcome of psychosis in the context of CU. The author proposes two major pathways from cannabis to psychosis based on a differentiation between early-initiated lifelong CU and a scenario where vulnerable individuals without a lifelong pattern of use consume cannabis over a relatively brief period of time just prior to psychosis onset. Additional key factors determining the clinical and neurobiological manifestation of psychosis as well as course and outcome in cannabis users include: underlying genetic and developmental vulnerability to schizophrenia-spectrum disorders; and whether or not CU ceases or continues after the onset of psychosis. Finally, methodological guidelines are presented for future research aimed at both elucidating the pathways that lead from cannabis to psychosis and clarifying the long-term outcome of the disorder in those who have a history of using cannabis. PMID:24133460

Identifying the effects of education on the ability to cope with a disability among individuals with disabilities

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The literature on disability has suggested that an educated individual with a disability is more likely to better cope with her/his disability than those without education. However, few published studies explore whether the relationship between education and ability to cope with a disability is anything more than an association. Using data on disability and accommodation from a large Danish survey from 2012–13 and exploiting a major Danish schooling reform as a natural experiment, we identified a potential causal effect of education on both economic (holding a job) as well as social (cultural activities, visiting clubs/associations, etc.) dimensions of coping among individuals with a disability, controlling for background factors, functioning, and disability characteristics. We found that endogeneity bias was only present in the case of economic participation and more educated individuals with a disability indeed had higher levels of both economic and social coping. To some extent, having more knowledge of public support systems and higher motivation explained the better coping among the group of individuals with disabilities who were educated. Our results indicated, however, that a large part of the effect of education on the ability to cope with a disability among individuals with disabilities was suggestive of a causal relationship. PMID:28355237

Age versus schooling effects on intelligence development.

PubMed

Cahan, S; Cohen, N

1989-10-01

The effect of formal education, as opposed to chronological age, on intelligence development has suffered from inadequate empirical investigation. Most studies of this issue have relied on natural variation in exposure to school among children of the same age, thus confounding differences in schooling with differences in other intelligence-related variables. This difficulty can be overcome by a quasi-experimental paradigm involving comparison between children who differ in both chronological age and schooling. The present study applies this paradigm to the estimation of the independent effects of age and schooling in grades 5 and 6 on raw scores obtained on a variety of general ability tests. The sample included all students in Jerusalem's Hebrew-language, state-controlled elementary schools. The results unambiguously point to schooling as the major factor underlying the increase of intelligence test scores as a function of age and to the larger effect schooling has on verbal than nonverbal tests. These results contribute to our understanding of the causal model underlying intelligence development and call for reconsideration of the conceptual basis underlying the definition of deviation-IQ scores. Some implications of these results concerning the distinction between intelligence and scholastic achievement, the causal model underlying the development of "crystallized" and "fluid" abilities, and the notion of "culture-fair" tests are discussed.

Strategic environmental assessment performance factors and their interaction: An empirical study in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Tianwei, E-mail: li.tianwei@mep.gov.cn; Wang, Huizhi, E-mail: huizhiwangnk@163.com; Deng, Baole, E-mail: dengbaolekobe@126.com

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has been seen as a preventive and participatory environmental management tool designed to integrate environmental protection into the decision-making process. However, the debate about SEA performance and effectiveness has increased in recent decades. Two main challenges exist in relation to this issue. The first is identifying the key influencing factors that affect SEA effectiveness, and the second is analyzing the relationship between SEA and these influencing factors. In this study, influencing factors were investigated through questionnaire surveys in the Chinese context, and then a Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential linksmore » and causal relationships among factors. The associations between the independent factors were divided into direct and indirect causal associations. The results indicate that the decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation, while information and data sharing, public participation, expertise and SEA institutions are indirectly related with SEA. The results also suggest that a lack of cooperation between different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. These findings could potentially contribute to the future management and implementation of SEA or enhance existing knowledge of SEA. The results show that the proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability. - Highlights: • Influencing factors were identified and investigated through questionnaire surveys. • Structural Equation Model (SEM) was developed and tested to identify potential links and causal relationships among factors. • Decision-making process and policy context directly affect SEA implementation. • Lack of cooperation among different sectors is an obstacle to the implementation of SEA. • The proposed model has a degree of feasibility and applicability.« less

Spectral factorization of wavefields and wave operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rickett, James Edward

Spectral factorization is the problem of finding a minimum-phase function with a given power spectrum. Minimum phase functions have the property that they are causal with a causal (stable) inverse. In this thesis, I factor multidimensional systems into their minimum-phase components. Helical boundary conditions resolve any ambiguities over causality, allowing me to factor multi-dimensional systems with conventional one-dimensional spectral factorization algorithms. In the first part, I factor passive seismic wavefields recorded in two-dimensional spatial arrays. The result provides an estimate of the acoustic impulse response of the medium that has higher bandwidth than autocorrelation-derived estimates. Also, the function's minimum-phase nature mimics the physics of the system better than the zero-phase autocorrelation model. I demonstrate this on helioseismic data recorded by the satellite-based Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument, and shallow seismic data recorded at Long Beach, California. In the second part of this thesis, I take advantage of the stable-inverse property of minimum-phase functions to solve wave-equation partial differential equations. By factoring multi-dimensional finite-difference stencils into minimum-phase components, I can invert them efficiently, facilitating rapid implicit extrapolation without the azimuthal anisotropy that is observed with splitting approximations. The final part of this thesis describes how to calculate diagonal weighting functions that approximate the combined operation of seismic modeling and migration. These weighting functions capture the effects of irregular subsurface illumination, which can be the result of either the surface-recording geometry, or focusing and defocusing of the seismic wavefield as it propagates through the earth. Since they are diagonal, they can be easily both factored and inverted to compensate for uneven subsurface illumination in migrated images. Experimental results show that applying these weighting functions after migration leads to significantly improved estimates of seismic reflectivity.

Environmental risk factors for cancers of the brain and nervous system: the use of ecological data to generate hypotheses.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Hannam, Kimberly; Buchan, Iain

2013-05-01

There is a public health need to balance timely generation of hypotheses with cautious causal inference. For rare cancers this is particularly challenging because standard epidemiological study designs may not be able to elucidate causal factors in an early period of newly emerging risks. Alternative methodologies need to be considered for generating and shaping hypotheses prior to definitive investigation. To evaluate whether open-access databases can be used to explore links between potential risk factors and cancers at an ecological level, using the case study of brain and nervous system cancers as an example. National age-adjusted cancer incidence rates were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2008 resource and combined with data from the United Nations Development Report and the World Bank list of development indicators. Data were analysed using multivariate regression models. Cancer rates, potential confounders and environmental risk factors were available for 165 of 208 countries. 2008 national incidences of brain and nervous system cancers were associated with continent, gross national income in 2008 and Human Development Index Score. The only exogenous risk factor consistently associated with higher incidence was the penetration rate of mobile/cellular telecommunications subscriptions, although other factors were highlighted. According to these ecological results the latency period is at least 11-12 years, but probably more than 20 years. Missing data on cancer incidence and for other potential risk factors prohibit more detailed investigation of exposure-response associations and/or explore other hypotheses. Readily available ecological data may be underused, particularly for the study of risk factors for rare diseases and those with long latencies. The results of ecological analyses in general should not be overinterpreted in causal inference, but equally they should not be ignored where alternative signals of aetiology are lacking.

Are Hill's criteria for causality satisfied for vitamin D and periodontal disease?

PubMed

Grant, William B; Boucher, Barbara J

2010-01-01

There is mounting evidence that periodontal disease (PD) is linked to low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in addition to recognized risk factors like diet and smoking. This paper reviews this evidence using Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Evidence for strength of association, consistency, cohesion and 'dose-effects' [biological 'gradients'] include strong inverse correlations between serum 25(OH) and PD cross-sectionally and that PD is consistently more prevalent in darker vs. lighter skinned people and increases at higher latitudes with analogy for gingivitis and for disorders associated with PD whose risks also increase with hypovitaminosis D. Evidence for plausibility includes that vitamin D increases calcium absorption and protects bone strength; induces formation of cathelicidin and other defensins that combat bacterial infection; reduces tissue production of destructive matrix metalloproteinases actively associated with PD and that prevalence of PD varies with common vitamin D receptor polymorphisms. Experimental evidence from limited supplementation studies [using calcium and vitamin D] shows that supplementation reduces tooth loss. Thus, existing evidence for hypovitaminosis D as a risk factor for PD to date meets Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Further experimental evidence for effectiveness and temporality, preferably from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation [adjusting for other PD risk factors including diet and smoking to reduce confounding] are necessary to confirm causality. If confirmed, dentists and periodontists could perform a valuable service to their patients by discussing the importance of adequate vitamin D status and how to avoid deficiency.

Are Hill's criteria for causality satisfied for vitamin D and periodontal disease?

PubMed Central

Boucher, Barbara J

2010-01-01

There is mounting evidence that periodontal disease (PD) is linked to low serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations in addition to recognized risk factors like diet and smoking. This paper reviews this evidence using Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Evidence for strength of association, consistency, cohesion and ‘dose-effects’ [biological ‘gradients’] include strong inverse correlations between serum 25(OH) and PD cross-sectionally and that PD is consistently more prevalent in darker vs. lighter skinned people and increases at higher latitudes with analogy for gingivitis and for disorders associated with PD whose risks also increase with hypovitaminosis D. Evidence for plausibility includes that vitamin D increases calcium absorption and protects bone strength; induces formation of cathelicidin and other defensins that combat bacterial infection; reduces tissue production of destructive matrix metalloproteinases actively associated with PD and that prevalence of PD varies with common vitamin D receptor polymorphisms. Experimental evidence from limited supplementation studies [using calcium and vitamin D] shows that supplementation reduces tooth loss. Thus, existing evidence for hypovitaminosis D as a risk factor for PD to date meets Hill's criteria for causality in a biological system. Further experimental evidence for effectiveness and temporality, preferably from randomized controlled trials of vitamin D supplementation [adjusting for other PD risk factors including diet and smoking to reduce confounding] are necessary to confirm causality. If confirmed, dentists and periodontists could perform a valuable service to their patients by discussing the importance of adequate vitamin D status and how to avoid deficiency. PMID:21547146

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2015-01-01

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Risk and protective factors for the development of childhood asthma.

PubMed

Ding, Guodong; Ji, Ruoxu; Bao, Yixiao

2015-03-01

Childhood asthma prevalence worldwide has been increasing markedly over several decades. Various theories have been proposed to account for this alarming trend. The disease has a broad spectrum of potential determinants ranging from genetics to lifestyle and environmental factors. Epidemiological observations have demonstrated that several important lifestyle and environmental factors including obesity, urban living, dietary patterns such as food low in antioxidants and fast food, non-breastfeeding, gut flora imbalance, cigarette smoking, air pollution, and viral infection are associated with asthma exacerbations in children. However, only environmental tobacco smoke has been associated with the development of asthma. Despite epidemiological studies indicating that many other factors are probably associated with the development of asthma, the relationships are not considered causal due to the inadequate evidence and inconsistent results from recent studies. This may highlight that sufficient data and exact mechanisms of causality are still in need of further study. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Eco-epidemiology: towards epidemiology of complexity].

PubMed

Bizouarn, Philippe

2016-05-01

In order to solve public health problems posed by the epidemiology of risk factors centered on the individual and neglecting the causal processes linking the risk factors with the health outcomes, Mervyn Susser proposed a multilevel epidemiology called eco-epidemiology, addressing the interdependence of individuals and their connection with molecular, individual, societal, environmental levels of organization participating in the causal disease processes. The aim of this epidemiology is to integrate more than a level of organization in design, analysis and interpretation of health problems. After presenting the main criticisms of risk-factor epidemiology focused on the individual, we will try to show how eco-epidemiology and its development could help to understand the need for a broader and integrative epidemiology, in which studies designed to identify risk factors would be balanced by studies designed to answer other questions equally vital to public health. © 2016 médecine/sciences – Inserm.

Occupational Factors, Fatigue, and Cardiovascular Disease

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Purpose: Briefly identify the epidemiological evidence, propose pertinent mechanisms, and discuss physical therapy practice as well as research implications of a causal association between occupational factors and cardiovascular disease. Summary of Key Points: There is evidence that occupational metabolic demands and work organizations characterized by reduced worker control are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. It is biologically plausible that these two factors interact to create a preclinical, intermediate state of fatigue (burnout) that is a critical component in the causal path from occupational factors to CVD. Physical therapists are uniquely qualified to contribute to an understanding of these mechanisms and their resultant implications for work organization, rehabilitation, and health promotion. Statement of Recommendations: Physical therapists engaged in ergonomic job analysis should consider work related metabolic demands, worker control, and fatigue in their assessment of risk for injury and illness, in recommendations for return to work, and in the prescription of health promotion leisure time physical activity PMID:20467535

Causal modeling of self-concept, job satisfaction, and retention of nurses.

PubMed

Cowin, Leanne S; Johnson, Maree; Craven, Rhonda G; Marsh, Herbert W

2008-10-01

The critical shortage of nurses experienced throughout the western world has prompted researchers to examine one major component of this complex problem - the impact of nurses' professional identity and job satisfaction on retention. A descriptive correlational design with a longitudinal element was used to examine a causal model of nurses' self-concept, job satisfaction, and retention plans in 2002. A random sample of 2000 registered nurses was selected from the state registering authority listing. A postal survey assessing multiple dimensions of nurses' self-concept (measured by the nurse self-concept questionnaire), job satisfaction (measured by the index of work satisfaction) was undertaken at Time 1 (n=528) and 8 months later at Time 2 (n=332) (including retention plans (measured by the Nurse Retention Index). Using confirmatory factor analysis, correlation matrices and path analysis, measurement and structural models were examined on matching pairs of data from T1 and T2 (total sample N=332). Nurses' self-concept was found to have a stronger association with nurses' retention plans (B=.45) than job satisfaction (B=.28). Aspects of pay and task were not significantly related to retention plans, however, professional status (r=.51), and to a lesser extent, organizational policies (r=.27) were significant factors. Nurses' general self-concept was strongly related (r=.57) to retention plans. Strategies or interventions requiring implementation and evaluation include: counseling to improve nurse general self-concept, education programs and competencies in health communication between health professionals, reporting of nurse-initiated programs with substantial patient benefit, nurse-friendly organizational policies, common health team learning opportunities, and autonomous practice models.

Sibling influences on childhood development.

PubMed

Dunn, J

1988-03-01

To summarize the main points concerning sibling influence: 1. That siblings play a causal role in the development of aggressive behavior, in children's style of conflict behavior and in cooperative fantasy play is strongly suggested by recent research. 2. Marked problems in the sibling relationship are indicative of other problems, but a causal role for siblings is not established, other than for aggressive behavior. 3. Family factors are closely involved in the quality of sibling relationships--and thus in sibling influence, namely differential parental behavior, and the emotional climate of the family. That is, it is important not to consider the sibling relationship in isolation from other family relationships. 4. Studies of families under stress indicate heightened importance of these family factors. 5. It is likely, but not yet established, that later-born siblings are influenced by first-born in socio-cognitive development and gender identity. 6. Finally it should be noted that an important theme in current research on siblings is a concern with the question of why siblings develop to be so different from one another. It has been shown that the major source of environmental influence on the development of individual differences is within-family rather than between-family differences in experience (Plomin & Daniels, 1987). The different experiences each sibling may have within their relationship is one potential source of such differential environmental influence. Thus documenting the influence of siblings upon each other takes on added significance: By clarifying the extent and nature of this influence we will gain not only useful clinical information but illumination on a developmental principle of very general significance.

Determinants of work injuries in mines - an application of structural equation modelling.

PubMed

Maiti, J; Chatterjee, S; Bangdiwala, S I

2004-03-01

In spite of stringent regulations and much attention towards reducing risks in the physical environment, the mining industry continues to be associated with high levels of accidents, injuries and illnesses. Only engineering solutions to accident prevention are inappropriate unless coupled with focused attention to the attitudes and behaviours of the mineworkers in coping with the inherent physical, technical and situational risks. The present study identified these various risk factors and analysed their influences on work injury in a causal framework. Data were collected from an underground coalmine of India. The pattern and strength of relationships of 16 causal factors with work injuries were assessed through structural equation modelling. The case study results showed that negatively personified individuals are of major concern for safety improvement in the mine studied. They not only fail to avoid work injuries, they are unable to extend safe work behaviours in their work. The variable safety environment is negatively affected by personality, whereas social support has a positive relationship with safety environment. The variable job hazards appeared to have a significant relationship with job involvement, which has a negative relationship with work injury. Elimination of negative behaviours must be focused and committed by the mine safety management. Long term planning through (i) identification of negative individuals, (ii) proper councelling of adverse effects of negative behaviours, and (iii) special training with psychological treatment is highly required. Identification may begin while recruiting new workers through interview. Proper allocation of jobs (right person for right job) may be a judicial solution to this end.

Success in Writing and Attributions of 16-Year-Old French-Speaking Students in Minority and Majority Environments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bouchamma, Yamina; Lapointe, Claire

2008-01-01

This article examines causal attributions of writing performance made by 16-year-old French-speaking Canadian students (N = 3,874). The students are from the French-speaking majority province (Quebec) and minority provinces in Canada (Manitoba, Ontario, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia). The data came from the School Achievement Indicators Program…

Exploring the Nature and Reasons for Sexual Violence within Marriage among Young Women in Nepal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puri, Mahesh; Shah, Iqbal; Tamang, Jyotsna

2010-01-01

Sexual violence within marriage (SVWM) is a major public health and human right issue and yet remains a much neglected research area, especially in Nepal. An exploratory study using free listing, in-depth case histories and causal flow analysis was conducted among two major ethnic groups in Nepal. Descriptive data collected from free listing…

Mouse chronic social stress increases blood and brain kynurenine pathway activity and fear behaviour: Both effects are reversed by inhibition of indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase.

PubMed

Fuertig, René; Azzinnari, Damiano; Bergamini, Giorgio; Cathomas, Flurin; Sigrist, Hannes; Seifritz, Erich; Vavassori, Stefano; Luippold, Andreas; Hengerer, Bastian; Ceci, Angelo; Pryce, Christopher R

2016-05-01

Psychosocial stress is a major risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders, in which excessive reactivity to aversive events/stimuli is a major psychopathology. In terms of pathophysiology, immune-inflammation is an important candidate, including high blood and brain levels of metabolites belonging to the kynurenine pathway. Animal models are needed to study causality between psychosocial stress, immune-inflammation and hyper-reactivity to aversive stimuli. The present mouse study investigated effects of psychosocial stress as chronic social defeat (CSD) versus control-handling (CON) on: Pavlovian tone-shock fear conditioning, activation of the kynurenine pathway, and efficacy of a specific inhibitor (IDOInh) of the tryptophan-kynurenine catabolising enzyme indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO1), in reversing CSD effects on the kynurenine pathway and fear. CSD led to excessive fear learning and memory, whilst repeated oral escitalopram (antidepressant and anxiolytic) reversed excessive fear memory, indicating predictive validity of the model. CSD led to higher blood levels of TNF-α, IFN-γ, kynurenine (KYN), 3-hydroxykynurenine (3-HK) and kynurenic acid, and higher KYN and 3-HK in amygdala and hippocampus. CSD was without effect on IDO1 gene or protein expression in spleen, ileum and liver, whilst increasing liver TDO2 gene expression. Nonetheless, oral IDOInh reduced blood and brain levels of KYN and 3-HK in CSD mice to CON levels, and we therefore infer that CSD increases IDO1 activity by increasing its post-translational activation. Furthermore, repeated oral IDOInh reversed excessive fear memory in CSD mice to CON levels. IDOInh reversal of CSD-induced hyper-activity in the kynurenine pathway and fear system contributes significantly to the evidence for a causal pathway between psychosocial stress, immune-inflammation and the excessive fearfulness that is a major psychopathology in stress-related neuropsychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Obesity, metabolic factors and risk of different histological types of lung cancer: A Mendelian randomization study

PubMed Central

Carreras-Torres, Robert; Johansson, Mattias; Haycock, Philip C.; Wade, Kaitlin H.; Relton, Caroline L.; Martin, Richard M.; Davey Smith, George; Albanes, Demetrius; Aldrich, Melinda C.; Andrew, Angeline; Bickeböller, Heike; Bojesen, Stig E.; Brunnström, Hans; Manjer, Jonas; Brüske, Irene; Caporaso, Neil E.; Chen, Chu; Christiani, David C.; Christian, W. Jay; Doherty, Jennifer A.; Duell, Eric J.; Goodman, Gary E.; Grankvist, Kjell; Haugen, Aage; Hong, Yun-Chul; Johansson, Mikael B.; Lam, Stephen; Landi, Maria Teresa; Lazarus, Philip; Le Marchand, Loïc; Liu, Geoffrey; Melander, Olle; Rennert, Gad; Risch, Angela; Haura, Eric B.; Scelo, Ghislaine; Zaridze, David; Mukeriya, Anush; Savić, Milan; Lissowska, Jolanta; Swiatkowska, Beata; Janout, Vladimir; Holcatova, Ivana; Mates, Dana; Shen, Hongbing; Tardon, Adonina; Woll, Penella; Tsao, Ming-Sound; Wu, Xifeng; Yuan, Jian-Min; Hung, Rayjean J.; Amos, Christopher I.; Brennan, Paul

2017-01-01

Background Assessing the relationship between lung cancer and metabolic conditions is challenging because of the confounding effect of tobacco. Mendelian randomization (MR), or the use of genetic instrumental variables to assess causality, may help to identify the metabolic drivers of lung cancer. Methods and findings We identified genetic instruments for potential metabolic risk factors and evaluated these in relation to risk using 29,266 lung cancer cases (including 11,273 adenocarcinomas, 7,426 squamous cell and 2,664 small cell cases) and 56,450 controls. The MR risk analysis suggested a causal effect of body mass index (BMI) on lung cancer risk for two of the three major histological subtypes, with evidence of a risk increase for squamous cell carcinoma (odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence interval (CI)] = 1.20 [1.01–1.43] and for small cell lung cancer (OR [95%CI] = 1.52 [1.15–2.00]) for each standard deviation (SD) increase in BMI [4.6 kg/m2]), but not for adenocarcinoma (OR [95%CI] = 0.93 [0.79–1.08]) (Pheterogeneity = 4.3x10-3). Additional analysis using a genetic instrument for BMI showed that each SD increase in BMI increased cigarette consumption by 1.27 cigarettes per day (P = 2.1x10-3), providing novel evidence that a genetic susceptibility to obesity influences smoking patterns. There was also evidence that low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with lung cancer overall risk (OR [95%CI] = 0.90 [0.84–0.97] per SD of 38 mg/dl), while fasting insulin was positively associated (OR [95%CI] = 1.63 [1.25–2.13] per SD of 44.4 pmol/l). Sensitivity analyses including a weighted-median approach and MR-Egger test did not detect other pleiotropic effects biasing the main results. Conclusions Our results are consistent with a causal role of fasting insulin and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in lung cancer etiology, as well as for BMI in squamous cell and small cell carcinoma. The latter relation may be mediated by a previously unrecognized effect of obesity on smoking behavior. PMID:28594918

Intoxicated aggression: Do alcohol and stimulants cause dose-related aggression? A review.

PubMed

Kuypers, Kpc; Verkes, R J; van den Brink, W; van Amsterdam, Jgc; Ramaekers, J G

2018-06-22

Violence and drug use are significant public health challenges that are strongly linked. It is known that alcohol plays a major role in the causation of unnatural deaths and that stimulants like cocaine and amphetamine are often implicated in aggressive acts or violence. However, a clear causal relationship between these substances and aggression, and more specifically a blood concentration threshold at which intoxicated aggression emerges is lacking. In case of a crime and subsequent law enforcement, knowledge about dose-response relationships could be of pivotal importance when evaluating the role of alcohol and drugs in aggressive offences. The present review aimed to determine whether there is a causal relation between intoxication with these psychoactive substances and aggression, and to define blood concentration thresholds above which these substances elicit aggression. Empirical articles published between 2013 and 2017 and review papers containing the predefined search strings were identified through searches in the PubMed and Embase databases and additional reference list searches. The complete search query yielded 1578 publications. Initially all articles were manually screened by title and abstract. Articles with irrelevant titles, given the selected search terms and review aims were discarded. Remaining articles were carefully studied and those that did not comply with the main objectives of this review were discarded. At the end of this process, 167 titles were found eligible for review. While placebo-controlled experimental studies clearly showed a causal link between alcohol and aggression, it is evident that such a link has not yet been established for cocaine and amphetamines. In case of alcohol, it is clear that there are various individual and contextual factors that may contribute to the occurrence of an aggressive act during intoxication. A clear threshold blood alcohol concentration has not been defined yet for alcohol, but a statistically significant increase of aggression has been demonstrated at a dose of 0.75 g/kg and higher. Future studies into intoxicated aggression should include multiple doses of alcohol and stimulants and take into account individual and contextual factors. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Investigating genetic correlations and causal effects between caffeine consumption and sleep behaviours.

PubMed

Treur, Jorien L; Gibson, Mark; Taylor, Amy E; Rogers, Peter J; Munafò, Marcus R

2018-04-22

Observationally, higher caffeine consumption is associated with poorer sleep and insomnia. We investigated whether these associations are a result of shared genetic risk factors and/or (possibly bidirectional) causal effects. Summary-level data were available from genome-wide association studies on caffeine intake (n = 91 462), plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate (n = 9876), sleep duration and chronotype (being a "morning" versus an "evening" person) (n = 128 266), and insomnia complaints (n = 113 006). First, genetic correlations were calculated, reflecting the extent to which genetic variants influencing caffeine consumption and those influencing sleep overlap. Next, causal effects were estimated with bidirectional, two-sample Mendelian randomization. This approach utilizes the genetic variants most robustly associated with an exposure variable as an "instrument" to test causal effects. Estimates from individual variants were combined using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis, weighted median regression and MR-Egger regression. We found no clear evidence for a genetic correlation between caffeine intake and sleep duration (rg = 0.000, p = .998), chronotype (rg = 0.086, p = .192) or insomnia complaints (rg = -0.034, p = .700). For plasma caffeine and caffeine metabolic rate, genetic correlations could not be calculated because of the small sample size. Mendelian randomization did not support causal effects of caffeine intake on sleep, or vice versa. There was weak evidence that higher plasma caffeine levels causally decrease the odds of being a morning person. Although caffeine may acutely affect sleep when taken shortly before bedtime, our findings suggest that a sustained pattern of high caffeine consumption is more likely to be associated with poorer sleep through shared environmental factors. Future research should identify such environments, which could aid the development of interventions to improve sleep. © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.

Breast-feeding and cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life: evidence from epidemiological studies.

PubMed

Owen, Christopher G; Whincup, Peter H; Cook, Derek G

2011-11-01

This paper considers the body of observational evidence examining the association of being breast-fed to cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life, and whether any potentially advantageous findings are causal. Early cardiovascular consequences/correlates of breast-feeding, compared to being formula fed, include markedly higher levels of total blood cholesterol, lower levels of pre-prandial blood glucose and insulin and lower levels of adiposity. However, a key issue is whether these early differences at a period of rapid development programme/influence cardiovascular risk factors and outcomes in later life. Evidence of long-term effects of early feeding, largely from observational studies, has shown that those breast-fed have lower levels of blood total cholesterol, lower risk of type-2 diabetes and marginally lower levels of adiposity and blood pressure in adult life. There is no strong evidence to suggest effects of early feeding on adult levels of blood glucose, blood insulin and CHD outcomes, although further data are needed. However, the influence of confounding factors, such as maternal body size, maternal smoking and socio-demographic factors, and exclusivity of early feeding on these potentially beneficial associations needs to be considered before inferring any causal effects. Moreover, fewer studies have examined whether duration of exclusive breast-feeding has a graded influence on these risk factors and outcomes; such data would help further in deciding upon causal associations. While strong observational evidence suggests nutritional programming of adult cholesterol levels, associations with other markers of cardiometabolic risk and their consequences in later life need to be confirmed in well-conducted observational and experimental studies.

Space station crew safety: Human factors interaction model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, M. M.; Junge, M. K.

1985-01-01

A model of the various human factors issues and interactions that might affect crew safety is developed. The first step addressed systematically the central question: How is this space station different from all other spacecraft? A wide range of possible issue was identified and researched. Five major topics of human factors issues that interacted with crew safety resulted: Protocols, Critical Habitability, Work Related Issues, Crew Incapacitation and Personal Choice. Second, an interaction model was developed that would show some degree of cause and effect between objective environmental or operational conditions and the creation of potential safety hazards. The intermediary steps between these two extremes of causality were the effects on human performance and the results of degraded performance. The model contains three milestones: stressor, human performance (degraded) and safety hazard threshold. Between these milestones are two countermeasure intervention points. The first opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against stress. If this countermeasure fails, performance degrades. The second opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against error. If this second countermeasure fails, the threshold of a potential safety hazard may be crossed.

Exercise rescues obese mothers' insulin sensitivity, placental hypoxia and male offspring insulin sensitivity.

PubMed

Fernandez-Twinn, Denise S; Gascoin, Geraldine; Musial, Barbara; Carr, Sarah; Duque-Guimaraes, Daniella; Blackmore, Heather L; Alfaradhi, Maria Z; Loche, Elena; Sferruzzi-Perri, Amanda N; Fowden, Abigail L; Ozanne, Susan E

2017-03-14

The prevalence of obesity during pregnancy continues to increase at alarming rates. This is concerning as in addition to immediate impacts on maternal wellbeing, obesity during pregnancy has detrimental effects on the long-term health of the offspring through non-genetic mechanisms. A major knowledge gap limiting our capacity to develop intervention strategies is the lack of understanding of the factors in the obese mother that mediate these epigenetic effects on the offspring. We used a mouse model of maternal-diet induced obesity to define predictive correlations between maternal factors and offspring insulin resistance. Maternal hyperinsulinemia (independent of maternal body weight and composition) strongly associated with offspring insulin resistance. To test causality, we implemented an exercise intervention that improved maternal insulin sensitivity without changing maternal body weight or composition. This maternal intervention prevented excess placental lipid deposition and hypoxia (independent of sex) and insulin resistance in male offspring. We conclude that hyperinsulinemia is a key programming factor and therefore an important interventional target during obese pregnancy, and propose moderate exercise as a promising strategy to improve metabolic outcome in both the obese mother and her offspring.

An Evolutionary Perspective on Epistasis and the Missing Heritability

PubMed Central

Hemani, Gibran; Knott, Sara; Haley, Chris

2013-01-01

The relative importance between additive and non-additive genetic variance has been widely argued in quantitative genetics. By approaching this question from an evolutionary perspective we show that, while additive variance can be maintained under selection at a low level for some patterns of epistasis, the majority of the genetic variance that will persist is actually non-additive. We propose that one reason that the problem of the “missing heritability” arises is because the additive genetic variation that is estimated to be contributing to the variance of a trait will most likely be an artefact of the non-additive variance that can be maintained over evolutionary time. In addition, it can be shown that even a small reduction in linkage disequilibrium between causal variants and observed SNPs rapidly erodes estimates of epistatic variance, leading to an inflation in the perceived importance of additive effects. We demonstrate that the perception of independent additive effects comprising the majority of the genetic architecture of complex traits is biased upwards and that the search for causal variants in complex traits under selection is potentially underpowered by parameterising for additive effects alone. Given dense SNP panels the detection of causal variants through genome-wide association studies may be improved by searching for epistatic effects explicitly. PMID:23509438

The Reactive-Causal Architecture: Introducing an Emotion Model along with Theories of Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aydin, Ali Orhan; Orgun, Mehmet Ali

In the entertainment application area, one of the major aims is to develop believable agents. To achieve this aim, agents should be highly autonomous, situated, flexible, and display affect. The Reactive-Causal Architecture (ReCau) is proposed to simulate these core attributes. In its current form, ReCau cannot explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This study aims is to further improve the emotion model of ReCau to explain the effects of emotions on intelligent behaviour. This improvement allows ReCau to be emotional to support the development of believable agents.

Paradigm shift in consciousness research: the child's self-awareness and abnormalities in autism, ADHD and schizophrenia.

PubMed

Lou, Hans C

2012-02-01

Self-awareness is a pivotal component of any conscious experience and conscious self-regulation of behaviour. A paralimbic network is active, specific and causal in self-awareness. Its regions interact by gamma synchrony. Gamma synchrony develops throughout infancy, childhood and adolescence into adulthood and is regulated by dopamine and other neurotransmitters via GABA interneurons. Major derailments of this network and self-awareness occur in developmental disorders of conscious self-regulation like autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and schizophrenia. Recent research on conscious experience is no longer limited to the study of neural 'correlations' but is increasingly lending itself to the study of causality. This paradigm shift opens new perspectives for understanding the neural mechanisms of the developing self and the causal effects of their disturbance in developmental disorders. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

An Explanation of the Distinction between Developmental Factors and Mechanisms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laski, Elida V.

2017-01-01

This paper provides five clear, relatable examples that can help students understand the distinction between the term "factors" and "mechanisms" in Developmental Psychology. The examples emphasize the idea that factors are related to changes in ways that moderate development, but are not causal. On the other hand, the term…

Applying Medical Anthropology: Developing Diabetes Education and Prevention Programs in American Indian Cultures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Brooke

1999-01-01

Medical anthropology provides a broader contextual framework for understanding complex causal factors associated with diabetes among American Indians and how to minimize these factors in education/treatment programs. Discusses historical, epidemiological, and genetic considerations in American Indian diabetes; cultural factors related to foods,…

Group Facilitation: Functions and Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, L. Frances; Robertson, Sharon E.

1985-01-01

Discusses a model based on a specific set of assumptions about causality and effectiveness in interactional groups. Discusses personal qualities of group facilitators and proposes five major functions and seven skill clusters central to effective group facilitation. (Author/BH)

When All the Ducks Line Up

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henwood, Bart E.

2007-01-01

This viewgraph presentation gives an overview of the N2NA Pylon overheat mishap. The contents include: 1) Investigation Process; 2) Bottom Line; 3) Event Description / Damage; 4) Causal Tree Analysis; 5) Significant Observations; and 6) Major Recommendations.

Frequency distribution of causal connectivity in rat sensorimotor network: resting-state fMRI analyses.

PubMed

Shim, Woo H; Baek, Kwangyeol; Kim, Jeong Kon; Chae, Yongwook; Suh, Ji-Yeon; Rosen, Bruce R; Jeong, Jaeseung; Kim, Young R

2013-01-01

Resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) has emerged as an important method for assessing neural networks, enabling extensive connectivity analyses between multiple brain regions. Among the analysis techniques proposed, partial directed coherence (PDC) provides a promising tool to unveil causal connectivity networks in the frequency domain. Using the MRI time series obtained from the rat sensorimotor system, we applied PDC analysis to determine the frequency-dependent causality networks. In particular, we compared in vivo and postmortem conditions to establish the statistical significance of directional PDC values. Our results demonstrate that two distinctive frequency populations drive the causality networks in rat; significant, high-frequency causal connections clustered in the range of 0.2-0.4 Hz, and the frequently documented low-frequency connections <0.15 Hz. Frequency-dependence and directionality of the causal connection are characteristic between sensorimotor regions, implying the functional role of frequency bands to transport specific resting-state signals. In particular, whereas both intra- and interhemispheric causal connections between heterologous sensorimotor regions are robust over all frequency levels, the bilaterally homologous regions are interhemispherically linked mostly via low-frequency components. We also discovered a significant, frequency-independent, unidirectional connection from motor cortex to thalamus, indicating dominant cortical inputs to the thalamus in the absence of external stimuli. Additionally, to address factors underlying the measurement error, we performed signal simulations and revealed that the interactive MRI system noise alone is a likely source of the inaccurate PDC values. This work demonstrates technical basis for the PDC analysis of resting-state fMRI time series and the presence of frequency-dependent causality networks in the sensorimotor system.

Causal attributions in parents of babies with a cleft lip and/or palate and their association with psychological well-being.

PubMed

Nelson, Jonathan; O'Leary, Catherine; Weinman, John

2009-07-01

This study aimed to assess causal attributions of parents of babies with a cleft lip and/or palate. Evidence from causal attribution theory and attribution studies in other medical conditions led to the hypothesis that parents who make internal attributions (self-blame) will have poorer psychological well-being. A cross-sectional survey. Postal questionnaires were sent to parents of children under the care of the South Thames Cleft Service at Guy's Hospital. PARTICIPANTS were recruited if they had a baby between 12 and 24 months old with a cleft lip and/or palate. Of 204 parents, 42 responded. A semistructured questionnaire about causal beliefs was completed alongside validated questionnaires measuring anxiety, depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), and perceived stress (Perceived Stress Scale). Causal attributions were grouped according to type (environmental, chance, self-blame, and no belief) and loci (external or internal). The most common attribution made was to external factors (54.4%), followed by no causal attribution (38.1%). Parents making an internal (self-blaming) attribution (16.7%) had significantly (p < .05) higher scores on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale anxiety measure (r = .32) and Perceived Stress Scale (r = .33), but not on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale depression measure (p = .283). The high number of parents making an external attribution can be explained by causal attribution theory. However, the percentage of parents making no causal attribution was higher than seen in previous research. Surprisingly, no parents blamed others. The main hypothesis was tentatively accepted because there were significantly higher anxiety and stress scores in parents who self-blamed; although, depression scores were not significantly higher.

Dementia, post-traumatic stress disorder and major depressive disorder: a review of the mental health risk factors for dementia in the military veteran population.

PubMed

Rafferty, L A; Cawkill, P E; Stevelink, S A M; Greenberg, K; Greenberg, N

2018-03-08

Dementia is currently incurable, irreversible and a major cause of disability for the world's older population. The association between mental health difficulties, such as post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive disorder (MDD), and dementia has a long history within the civilian population. Despite the increased importance of this link within the military veteran population, who suffer a greater propensity of mental health difficulties and consist largely of over 65s, attention is only recently being paid to the salience of such an association for this group. This paper aims to explore the relationship between PTSD and MDD with dementia within the military veteran population. A systematic review was conducted on articles from 1990 to July 2016 on MEDLINE, EMBASE, EBSCO and Web of Science electronic databases with an update conducted in February 2017. Six empirical studies were identified from the review, the majority of which originated from the USA. Five of the studies asserted that veterans with a diagnosis of either PTSD or MDD are at a significantly greater risk of developing dementia than 'healthy' controls. The final study, conducted in Australia, found only a small, but non-significant, correlation between earlier MDD and future dementia, but no concurrent correlation. While causality cannot be determined, it is likely that PTSD and depressive disorders are related to an increased risk of dementia in military veterans. Potential pathological explanations and risk factors are reviewed and the clinical and neuroscience implications of these findings are explored.

Prenatal, Perinatal, and Neonatal Risk Factors for Specific Language Impairment: A Prospective Pregnancy Cohort Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitehouse, Andrew J. O.; Shelton, W. M. R.; Ing, Caleb; Newnham, John P.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Although genetic factors are known to play a causal role in specific language impairment (SLI), environmental factors may also be important. This study examined whether there are prenatal, perinatal, and neonatal factors that are associated with childhood SLI. Method: Participants were members of the Raine Study, a prospective cohort…

Gut Microbiota: A Contributing Factor to Obesity

PubMed Central

Harakeh, Steve M.; Khan, Imran; Kumosani, Taha; Barbour, Elie; Almasaudi, Saad B.; Bahijri, Suhad M.; Alfadul, Sulaiman M.; Ajabnoor, Ghada M. A.; Azhar, Esam I.

2016-01-01

Obesity, a global epidemic of the modern era, is a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes. The pervasiveness of obesity and overweight in both developed as well as developing populations is on the rise and placing a huge burden on health and economic resources. Consequently, research to control this emerging epidemic is of utmost importance. Recently, host interactions with their resident gut microbiota (GM) have been reported to be involved in the pathogenesis of many metabolic diseases, including obesity, diabetes, and CVD. Around 1014 microorganisms reside within the lower human intestine and many of these 1014 microorganisms have developed mutualistic or commensal associations with the host and actively involved in many physiological processes of the host. However, dysbiosis (altered gut microbial composition) with other predisposing genetic and environmental factors, may contribute to host metabolic disorders resulting in many ailments. Therefore, delineating the role of GM as a contributing factor to obesity is the main objective of this review. Obesity research, as a field is expanding rapidly due to major advances in nutrigenomics, metabolomics, RNA silencing, epigenetics, and other disciplines that may result in the emergence of new technologies and methods to better interpret causal relationships between microbiota and obesity. PMID:27625997

Global drivers of the stratospheric polar vortex via nonlinear causal discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D.

2016-12-01

The stratospheric polar vortex plays a major role in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in driving extreme weather conditions. Many different global drivers, from Arctic sea ice to tropical climate patterns, are hypothesized to influence its stability, including linear and nonlinear mechanisms. Here a novel causal discovery approach, extending previous work [1], that is adapted to the particular challenges posed by such a high-dimensional dataset comprised of multiple, possibly nonlinearly coupled time series is demonstrated. While links in the reconstructed network can be called causal only with respect to the set of analyzed variables, the absence of causal links allows to assess where physical mechanisms are unlikely.The present work confirms recent results obtained with a similar, but linear, approach [2], regarding the impact of Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations, and extends the analysis also to tropical drivers to cover more proposed mechanisms. [1] Jakob Runge, Vladimir Petoukhov, and Jürgen Kurths, 2014: Quantifying the Strength and Delay of Climatic Interactions: The Ambiguities of Cross Correlation and a Novel Measure Based on Graphical Models. J. Climate 27, 720-739, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00159.1.[2] Marlene Kretschmer, Dim Coumou, Jonathan F. Donges, and Jakob Runge, 2016: Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation. J. Climate 29, 4069-4081, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1.

Social Learning in the Real-World: 'Over-Imitation' Occurs in Both Children and Adults Unaware of Participation in an Experiment and Independently of Social Interaction.

PubMed

Whiten, Andrew; Allan, Gillian; Devlin, Siobahn; Kseib, Natalie; Raw, Nicola; McGuigan, Nicola

2016-01-01

The current study avoided the typical laboratory context to determine instead whether over-imitation-the disposition to copy even visibly, causally unnecessary actions-occurs in a real-world context in which participants are unaware of being in an experiment. We disguised a puzzle-box task as an interactive item available to the public within a science engagement zone of Edinburgh Zoo. As a member of the public approached, a confederate acting as a zoo visitor retrieved a reward from the box using a sequence of actions containing both causally relevant and irrelevant elements. Despite the absence of intentional demonstration, or social pressure to copy, a majority of both child and even adult observers included all causally irrelevant actions in their reproduction. This occurred even though causal irrelevance appeared manifest because of the transparency of the puzzle-box. That over-imitation occurred so readily in a naturalistic context, devoid of social interaction and pressure, suggests that humans are opportunistic social learners throughout the lifespan, copying the actions of other individuals even when these actions are not intentionally demonstrated, and their causal significance is not readily apparent. The disposition to copy comprehensively, even when a mere onlooker, likely provides humans, irrespective of their age, with a powerful mechanism to extract maximal information from the social environment.

Energy, Metaphysics, and Space: Ernst Mach's Interpretation of Energy Conservation as the Principle of Causality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzardi, Luca

2014-06-01

This paper discusses Ernst Mach's interpretation of the principle of energy conservation (EC) in the context of the development of energy concepts and ideas about causality in nineteenth-century physics and theory of science. In doing this, it focuses on the close relationship between causality, energy conservation and space in Mach's antireductionist view of science. Mach expounds his thesis about EC in his first historical-epistemological essay, Die Geschichte und die Wurzel des Satzes von der Erhaltung der Arbeit (1872): far from being a new principle, it is used from the early beginnings of mechanics independently from other principles; in fact, EC is a pre-mechanical principle which is generally applied in investigating nature: it is, indeed, nothing but a form of the principle of causality. The paper focuses on the scientific-historical premises and philosophical underpinnings of Mach's thesis, beginning with the classic debate on the validity and limits of the notion of cause by Hume, Kant, and Helmholtz. Such reference also implies a discussion of the relationship between causality on the one hand and space and time on the other. This connection plays a major role for Mach, and in the final paragraphs its importance is argued in order to understand his antireductionist perspective, i.e. the rejection of any attempt to give an ultimate explanation of the world via reduction of nature to one fundamental set of phenomena.

Anxiety Disorders and Sensory Over-Responsivity in Children with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Is There a Causal Relationship?

PubMed Central

Ben-Sasson, Ayelet

2010-01-01

Anxiety disorders and sensory over-responsivity (SOR) are common in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD), and there is evidence for an association between these two conditions. Currently, it is unclear what causal mechanisms may exist between SOR and anxiety. We propose three possible theories to explain the association between anxiety and SOR: (a) SOR is caused by anxiety; (b) Anxiety is caused by SOR; or (c) SOR and anxiety are causally unrelated but are associated through a common risk factor or diagnostic overlap. In this paper, we examine support for each theory in the existing anxiety, autism, and neuroscience literature, and discuss how each theory informs choice of interventions and implications for future studies. PMID:20383658

Attributional "Tunnel Vision" in Patients With Borderline Personality Disorder.

PubMed

Schilling, Lisa; Moritz, Steffen; Schneider, Brooke; Bierbrodt, Julia; Nagel, Matthias

2015-12-01

We aimed to examine the profile of interpersonal attributions in BPD. We hypothesized that patients show more mono-causal and internal attributions than healthy controls. A revised version of the Internal, Personal, Situational and Attributions Questionnaire was assessed in 30 BPD patients and 30 healthy controls. BPD patients and controls differed significantly in their attributional pattern. Patients displayed more mono-causal inferences, that is, they had difficulties considering alternative explanatory factors. For negative events, patients made more internal attributions compared to healthy controls. We concluded that mono-causal "trapped" thinking might contribute to (interpersonal) problems in BPD patients by fostering impulsive consequential behaviors, for example, harming one's self or others. A self-blaming tendency likely promotes depressive symptoms and low self-esteem.

Association between alleles of the transforming growth factor alpha locus and cleft lip and palate in the Chilean population

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jara, L.; Blanco, R.; Chiffelle, I.

1995-07-17

Two RFLPs at the TGFA locus were studied in 39 unrelated Chilean (Caucasoid-Mongoloid) patients with non-syndromic cleft lip/palate [CL(P)] and 51 control individuals. A highly significant association between BamHI A2 allele and CL(P) was detected ({chi}{sub 2} = 6.00; P = 0.014), while no association was found between TaqI RFLPs and clefting. No significant differences were found when comparing genotypes by type of cleft and a positive or negative family history of clefting. Our results seem to support rather definitively the association between TGFA and clefting but not support the hypothesis that TGFA is a major causal gene of CL(P).more » 29 refs., 5 tabs.« less

Subjective adult identity and casual sexual behavior.

PubMed

Lyons, Heidi Ann

2015-12-01

A majority of Americans have a casual sexual experience before transitioning to adulthood. Little research has yet to examine how identity influences causal sexual behavior. The current study fills this gap in the literature by examining if subjective adult identity predicts casual sexual behavior net of life course transitions in a national sample of Americans. To answer this research question, the Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health is utilized. Structural equation modeling results show the older and more adult-like individuals feel the less likely they are to report a recent casual sexual partner. Once life course factors are included in the model, subjective identity is no longer associated with casual sex. Practitioners who work with adult populations need to consider how life course transitions influence casual sexual behavior.

Plant ecology. Anthropogenic environmental changes affect ecosystem stability via biodiversity.

PubMed

Hautier, Yann; Tilman, David; Isbell, Forest; Seabloom, Eric W; Borer, Elizabeth T; Reich, Peter B

2015-04-17

Human-driven environmental changes may simultaneously affect the biodiversity, productivity, and stability of Earth's ecosystems, but there is no consensus on the causal relationships linking these variables. Data from 12 multiyear experiments that manipulate important anthropogenic drivers, including plant diversity, nitrogen, carbon dioxide, fire, herbivory, and water, show that each driver influences ecosystem productivity. However, the stability of ecosystem productivity is only changed by those drivers that alter biodiversity, with a given decrease in plant species numbers leading to a quantitatively similar decrease in ecosystem stability regardless of which driver caused the biodiversity loss. These results suggest that changes in biodiversity caused by drivers of environmental change may be a major factor determining how global environmental changes affect ecosystem stability. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Subjective adult identity and casual sexual behavior

PubMed Central

Lyons, Heidi Ann

2015-01-01

A majority of Americans have a casual sexual experience before transitioning to adulthood. Little research has yet to examine how identity influences causal sexual behavior. The current study fills this gap in the literature by examining if subjective adult identity predicts casual sexual behavior net of life course transitions in a national sample of Americans. To answer this research question, the Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health is utilized. Structural equation modeling results show the older and more adult-like individuals feel the less likely they are to report a recent casual sexual partner. Once life course factors are included in the model, subjective identity is no longer associated with casual sex. Practitioners who work with adult populations need to consider how life course transitions influence casual sexual behavior. PMID:27065759

Wall mechanics and exocytosis define the shape of growth domains in fission yeast.

PubMed

Abenza, Juan F; Couturier, Etienne; Dodgson, James; Dickmann, Johanna; Chessel, Anatole; Dumais, Jacques; Carazo Salas, Rafael E

2015-10-12

The amazing structural variety of cells is matched only by their functional diversity, and reflects the complex interplay between biochemical and mechanical regulation. How both regulatory layers generate specifically shaped cellular domains is not fully understood. Here, we report how cell growth domains are shaped in fission yeast. Based on quantitative analysis of cell wall expansion and elasticity, we develop a model for how mechanics and cell wall assembly interact and use it to look for factors underpinning growth domain morphogenesis. Surprisingly, we find that neither the global cell shape regulators Cdc42-Scd1-Scd2 nor the major cell wall synthesis regulators Bgs1-Bgs4-Rgf1 are reliable predictors of growth domain geometry. Instead, their geometry can be defined by cell wall mechanics and the cortical localization pattern of the exocytic factors Sec6-Syb1-Exo70. Forceful re-directioning of exocytic vesicle fusion to broader cortical areas induces proportional shape changes to growth domains, demonstrating that both features are causally linked.

Illness perceptions in adolescents with a psychiatric diagnosis in Pakistan

PubMed Central

Imran, Nazish; Azeem, Muhammad Waqar; Chaudhry, Mansoor R.; Butt, Zeeshan

2015-01-01

Aims and method To assess adolescents' perceptions of their psychiatric illness and the role of various demographic factors in a Pakistani setting. Adolescents with various psychiatric diagnoses were interviewed using a structured questionnaire including the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire–Revised (IPQ-R). Results Fifty-two adolescents with various psychiatric illnesses were interviewed; their mean age was 12.7 years and the majority (67%) were female. Males had significantly higher scores on timeline and emotional representation (P<0.05), suggesting strongly held beliefs about chronicity of their illness and anger and worry about their condition. Adolescents' own emotional state, stress, family problems and bad luck were endorsed by participants as some of the causal factors in their mental illness. Clinical implications Despite the importance of early intervention in psychiatric problems, engaging youth in the treatment process in Pakistan remains difficult. Better understanding of how adolescents perceive their psychiatric difficulties may play a significant role in developing culturally sensitive interventions and better utilisation of services. PMID:26755949

Illness perceptions in adolescents with a psychiatric diagnosis in Pakistan.

PubMed

Imran, Nazish; Azeem, Muhammad Waqar; Chaudhry, Mansoor R; Butt, Zeeshan

2015-08-01

Aims and method To assess adolescents' perceptions of their psychiatric illness and the role of various demographic factors in a Pakistani setting. Adolescents with various psychiatric diagnoses were interviewed using a structured questionnaire including the Illness Perceptions Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R). Results Fifty-two adolescents with various psychiatric illnesses were interviewed; their mean age was 12.7 years and the majority (67%) were female. Males had significantly higher scores on timeline and emotional representation (P<0.05), suggesting strongly held beliefs about chronicity of their illness and anger and worry about their condition. Adolescents' own emotional state, stress, family problems and bad luck were endorsed by participants as some of the causal factors in their mental illness. Clinical implications Despite the importance of early intervention in psychiatric problems, engaging youth in the treatment process in Pakistan remains difficult. Better understanding of how adolescents perceive their psychiatric difficulties may play a significant role in developing culturally sensitive interventions and better utilisation of services.

Global amphibian declines: perspectives from the United States and beyond

USGS Publications Warehouse

Densmore, Christine L.; Cipriano, R.C.; Bruckner, A.W.; Shchelkunov, I.S.

2011-01-01

Over recent decades, amphibians have experienced population declines, extirpations and species-level extinctions at an alarming rate. Numerous potential etiologies for amphibian declines have been postulated including climate and habitat degradation. Other potential anthropogenic causes including overexploitation and the frequent introductions of invasive predatory species have also been blamed for amphibian declines. Still other underlying factors may include infectious diseases caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, pathogenic viruses (Ranavirus), and other agents. It is nearly certain that more than one etiology is to blame for the majority of the global amphibian declines, and that these causal factors include some combination of climatological or physical habitat destabilization and infectious disease, most notably chytridiomycosis. Scientific research efforts are aimed at elucidating these etiologies on local, regional, and global scales that we might better understand and counteract the driving forces behind amphibian declines. Conservation efforts as outlined in the Amphibian Conservation Action Plan of 2005 are also being made to curtail losses and prevent further extinctions wherever possible.

"It Can Bust at Any Seam": Lessons for Deep Space Flight from Mawson's 1911-1914 Australasian Antarctic Expedition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, Phillip Scott

2010-09-01

Lessons useful for manned space flight can be gained by looking at exploring expeditions of the past. An aviation-accident style investigation was conducted on two fatalities that occurred on an Antarctic expedition in 1912-13. The causal factors of the accidents were determined; and lessons for future missions beyond LEO gleaned from both the causal factors and from looking at the expedition as a whole. The investigation highlighted, among other things, that probabilistic hazards can eventually take a life and that factors of terrain can and will damage equipment and kill men; that consumables should be segregated such that one mishap does not reduce margins to below those needed for survival, and that manned missions need to be able to jury-rig equipment in the field.

Hypospadias: Prevalence, birthweight and associated major congenital anomalies.

PubMed

Nissen, Karin Baekgaard; Udesen, Ann; Garne, Ester

2015-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of hypospadias over 24 years in a Danish population and to describe the relation to birthweight and associated major congenital anomalies. It is a population-based study of all cases (live births, fetal deaths and elective terminations of pregnancy) with hypospadias born in the period 1986-2009 in Funen County and reported to the EUROCAT registry of congenital anomalies. Cases were included only if surgery for hypospadias was performed. 223 cases of hypospadias were registered during the period 1986-2009 with an overall prevalence of 16.9 per 10 000 births. The prevalence was significantly higher in 2000-2009 compared to 1986-1999 (P < 0.001). We found a three times higher occurrence of VLBW (very low birthweight) infants among cases with hypospadias. Infants with isolated hypospadias were more likely to have mild hypospadias (68%) while cases with associated major congenital anomalies were less likely to have mild hypospadias (42%) (P < 0.05). Hypospadias was associated with VLBW and the severity of the defect was related to the presence of major congenital anomalies. The prevalence of hypospadias has increased during the study period. The relation to VLBW could indicate a causal relationship for hypospadias or a shared pathogenic factor. © 2014 Japanese Teratology Society.

Searching for the Final Answer: Factors Contributing to Medication Administration Errors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pape, Tess M.

2001-01-01

Causal factors contributing to errors in medication administration should be thoroughly investigated, focusing on systems rather than individual nurses. Unless systemic causes are addressed, many errors will go unreported for fear of reprisal. (Contains 42 references.) (SK)

Development of a methodology for accident causation research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-06-01

The obj ective of this study was to fully develop and apply a me thodology to : study accident causation, uhich was outlined in a previous study . " Causal" factors : are those pre-crash factors, which are statistically related to the accident rate :...

Summary of 1968-1970 multidisciplinary accident investigation reports. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-08-01

In June 1971, Volume 1 of a two-volume series summarizing the causal factors, conclusions and recommendations which emanated from various in-depth accident reports was published. This first volume contained a listing of these factors according to tea...

Belief beyond the evidence: using the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity to show 2 practices that distort scientific evidence1234

PubMed Central

Brown, Andrew W; Bohan Brown, Michelle M

2013-01-01

Background: Various intentional and unintentional factors influence beliefs beyond what scientific evidence justifies. Two such factors are research lacking probative value (RLPV) and biased research reporting (BRR). Objective: We investigated the prevalence of RLPV and BRR in research about the proposition that skipping breakfast causes weight gain, which is called the proposed effect of breakfast on obesity (PEBO) in this article. Design: Studies related to the PEBO were synthesized by using a cumulative meta-analysis. Abstracts from these studies were also rated for the improper use of causal language and biased interpretations. In separate analyses, articles that cited an observational study about the PEBO were rated for the inappropriate use of causal language, and articles that cited a randomized controlled trial (RCT) about the PEBO were rated for misleadingly citing the RCT. Results: The current body of scientific knowledge indicates that the PEBO is only presumed true. The observational literature on the PEBO has gratuitously established the association, but not the causal relation, between skipping breakfast and obesity (final cumulative meta-analysis P value <10−42), which is evidence of RLPV. Four examples of BRR are evident in the PEBO literature as follows: 1) biased interpretation of one's own results, 2) improper use of causal language in describing one's own results, 3) misleadingly citing others’ results, and 4) improper use of causal language in citing others’ work. Conclusions: The belief in the PEBO exceeds the strength of scientific evidence. The scientific record is distorted by RLPV and BRR. RLPV is a suboptimal use of collective scientific resources. PMID:24004890

The joint Simon effect depends on perceived agency, but not intentionality, of the alternative action

PubMed Central

Stenzel, Anna; Dolk, Thomas; Colzato, Lorenza S.; Sellaro, Roberta; Hommel, Bernhard; Liepelt, Roman

2014-01-01

A co-actor's intentionality has been suggested to be a key modulating factor for joint action effects like the joint Simon effect (JSE). However, in previous studies intentionality has often been confounded with agency defined as perceiving the initiator of an action as being the causal source of the action. The aim of the present study was to disentangle the role of agency and intentionality as modulating factors of the JSE. In Experiment 1, participants performed a joint go/nogo Simon task next to a co-actor who either intentionally controlled a response button with own finger movements (agency+/intentionality+) or who passively placed the hand on a response button that moved up and down on its own as triggered by computer signals (agency−/intentionality−). In Experiment 2, we included a condition in which participants believed that the co-actor intentionally controlled the response button with a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) while placing the response finger clearly besides the response button, so that the causal relationship between agent and action effect was perceptually disrupted (agency−/intentionality+). As a control condition, the response button was computer controlled while the co-actor placed the response finger besides the response button (agency−/intentionality−). Experiment 1 showed that the JSE is present with an intentional co-actor and causality between co-actor and action effect, but absent with an unintentional co-actor and a lack of causality between co-actor and action effect. Experiment 2 showed that the JSE is absent with an intentional co-actor, but no causality between co-actor and action effect. Our findings indicate an important role of the co-actor's agency for the JSE. They also suggest that the attribution of agency has a strong perceptual basis. PMID:25140144

The joint Simon effect depends on perceived agency, but not intentionality, of the alternative action.

PubMed

Stenzel, Anna; Dolk, Thomas; Colzato, Lorenza S; Sellaro, Roberta; Hommel, Bernhard; Liepelt, Roman

2014-01-01

A co-actor's intentionality has been suggested to be a key modulating factor for joint action effects like the joint Simon effect (JSE). However, in previous studies intentionality has often been confounded with agency defined as perceiving the initiator of an action as being the causal source of the action. The aim of the present study was to disentangle the role of agency and intentionality as modulating factors of the JSE. In Experiment 1, participants performed a joint go/nogo Simon task next to a co-actor who either intentionally controlled a response button with own finger movements (agency+/intentionality+) or who passively placed the hand on a response button that moved up and down on its own as triggered by computer signals (agency-/intentionality-). In Experiment 2, we included a condition in which participants believed that the co-actor intentionally controlled the response button with a Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) while placing the response finger clearly besides the response button, so that the causal relationship between agent and action effect was perceptually disrupted (agency-/intentionality+). As a control condition, the response button was computer controlled while the co-actor placed the response finger besides the response button (agency-/intentionality-). Experiment 1 showed that the JSE is present with an intentional co-actor and causality between co-actor and action effect, but absent with an unintentional co-actor and a lack of causality between co-actor and action effect. Experiment 2 showed that the JSE is absent with an intentional co-actor, but no causality between co-actor and action effect. Our findings indicate an important role of the co-actor's agency for the JSE. They also suggest that the attribution of agency has a strong perceptual basis.

Establishing causality in the decline and deformity of amphibians: The amphibian research and monitoring initiative model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Little, E.E.; Bridges, C.M.; Linder, G.; Boone, M.; ,

2003-01-01

Research to date has indicated that a range of environmental variables such as disease, parasitism, predation, competition, environmental contamination, solar ultraviolet radiation, climate change, or habitat alteration may be responsible for declining amphibian populations and the appearance of deformed organisms, yet in many cases no definitive environmental variable stands out as a causal factor. Multiple Stressors are often present in the habitat, and interactions among these can magnify injury to biota. This raises the possibility that the additive or synergistic impact of these Stressors may be the underlying cause of amphibian declines. Effective management for the restoration of amphibian populations requires the identification of causal factors contributing to their declines. A systematic approach to determine causality is especially important because initial impressions may be misleading or ambiguous. In addition, the evaluation of amphibian populations requires consideration of a broader spatial scale than commonly used in regulatory monitoring. We describe a systematic three-tiered approach to determine causality in amphibian declines and deformities. Tier 1 includes an evaluation of historic databases and extant data and would involve a desktop synopsis of the status of various stressors as well as site visits. Tier 2 studies are iterative, hypothesis driven studies beginning with general tests and continuing with analyses of increasing complexity as certain stressors are identified for further investigation. Tier 3 applies information developed in Tier 2 as predictive indicators of habitats and species at risk over broad landscape scales and provides decision support for the adaptive management of amphibian recovery. This comprehensive, tiered program could provide a mechanistic approach to identifying and addressing specific stressors responsible for amphibian declines across various landscapes.

THE RELATION BETWEEN DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS OF ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION AND BURDEN OF DISEASE - AN OVERVIEW

PubMed Central

Rehm, Jürgen; Baliunas, Dolly; Borges, Guilherme L. G.; Graham, Kathryn; lrving, Hyacinth; Kehoe, Tara; Parry, Charles D.; Patra, Jayadeep; Popova, Svetlana; Poznyak, Vladimir; Roerecke, Michael; Room, Robin; Samokhvalov, Andriy V.; Taylor, Benjamin

2012-01-01

AIMS As part of a larger study to estimate the global burden of disease and injury attributable to alcohol: To evaluate the evidence for a causal impact of average volume of alcohol consumption and pattern of drinking on diseases and injuries;To quantify relationships identified as causal based on published meta-analyses;To separate the impact on mortality vs. morbidity where possible; andTo assess the impact of the quality of alcohol on burden of disease. METHODS Systematic literature reviews were used to identify alcohol-related diseases, birth complications and injuries using standard epidemiologic criteria to determine causality. The extent of the risk relations was taken from meta-analyses. RESULTS Evidence of a causal impact of average volume of alcohol consumption was found for the following major diseases: tuberculosis, mouth, nasopharynx, other pharynx and oropharynx cancer, oesophageal cancer, colon and rectum cancer, liver cancer, female breast cancer, diabetes mellitus, alcohol use disorders, unipolar depressive disorders, epilepsy, hypertensive heart disease, ischaemic heart disease (IHD), ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, conduction disorders and other dysrhythmias, lower respiratory infections (pneumonia), cirrhosis of the liver, preterm birth complications, foetal alcohol syndrome. Dose-response relationships could be quantified for all disease categories except for depressive disorders, with the relative risk increasing with increased level of alcohol consumption for most diseases. Both average volume and drinking pattern were causally linked to IHD, foetal alcohol syndrome, and unintentional and intentional injuries. For IHD, ischaemic stroke and diabetes mellitus beneficial effects were observed for patterns of light to moderate drinking without heavy drinking occasions (as defined by 60+ grams pure alcohol per day). For several disease and injury categories, the effects were stronger on mortality compared to morbidity. There was insufficient evidence to establish whether quality of alcohol had a major impact on disease burden. CONCLUSIONS Overall, these findings indicate that alcohol causally impacts many disease outcomes, both chronic and acute, and injuries. In addition, a pattern of heavy episodic drinking increases risk for some disease and all injury outcomes. Future studies need to address a number of methodological issues, especially the differential role of average volume versus drinking pattern, in order to obtain more accurate risk estimates and to better understand the nature of alcohol-disease relationships. PMID:20331573

The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

PubMed

Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

2014-01-01

Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Causal chain mapping: a novel method to analyse treatment compliance decisions relating to lymphatic filariasis elimination in Alor, Indonesia.

PubMed

Krentel, Alison; Aunger, Robert

2012-08-01

Many public health programmes require individuals to comply with particular behaviours that are novel to them, for example, acquiring new eating habits, accepting immunizations or taking a new medication. In particular, mass drug administration programmes only work to reduce the prevalence of a disease if significant proportions of the target population take the drug in question. In such cases, knowledge of the factors most likely to lead to high levels of compliance is crucial to the programme's success. Existing models of compliance tend to either address interpersonal, organizational or psychological causes independently. Here, the authors present a formal method for analysing relevant factors in the situational context of the compliant behaviour, identifying how these factors may interact within the individual. This method was developed from semantic network analysis, augmented to include environmental and demographic variables to show causal linkages-hence the name 'causal chain mapping'. The ability of this method to provide significant insight into the actual behaviour of individuals is demonstrated with examples from a mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in Alor District, Indonesia. The use of this method is likely to help identify key components influencing compliance, and thus make any public health programme reliant on the adoption of novel behaviours more effective.

Self-organizing map analysis using multivariate data from theophylline powders predicted by a thin-plate spline interpolation.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Kikuchi, Shingo; Takayama, Kozo

2010-11-01

The quality by design concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires establishment of a science-based rationale and a design space. We integrated thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation and Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline powders were prepared based on the standard formulation. The angle of repose, compressibility, cohesion, and dispersibility were measured as the response variables. These responses were predicted quantitatively on the basis of a nonlinear TPS. A large amount of data on these powders was generated and classified into several clusters using an SOM. The experimental values of the responses were predicted with high accuracy, and the data generated for the powders could be classified into several distinctive clusters. The SOM feature map allowed us to analyze the global and local correlations between causal factors and powder characteristics. For instance, the quantities of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) and magnesium stearate (Mg-St) were classified distinctly into each cluster, indicating that the quantities of MCC and Mg-St were crucial for determining the powder characteristics. This technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline powder formulations. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association

On the factorial and construct validity of the Intrinsic Motivation Inventory: conceptual and operational concerns.

PubMed

Markland, D; Hardy, L

1997-03-01

The Intrinsic Motivation Inventory (IMI) has been gaining acceptance in the sport and exercise domain since the publication of research by McAuley, Duncan, and Tammen (1989) and McAuley, Wraith, and Duncan (1991), which reported confirmatory support for the factorial validity of a hierarchical model of intrinsic motivation. Authors of the present study argue that the results of these studies did not conclusively support the hierarchical model and that the model did not accurately reflect the tenets of cognitive evaluation theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) from which the IMI is drawn. It is also argued that a measure of perceived locus of causality is required to model intrinsic motivation properly. The development of a perceived locus of causality for exercise scale is described, and alternative models, in which perceived competence and perceived locus of causality are held to have causal influences on intrinsic motivation, are compared with an oblique confirmatory factor analytic model in which the constructs are held at the same conceptual level. Structural equation modeling showed support for a causal model in which perceived locus of causality mediates the effects of perceived competence on pressure-tension, interest-enjoyment, and effort-importance. It is argued that conceptual and operational problems with the IMI, as currently used, should be addressed before it becomes established as the instrument of choice for assessing levels of intrinsic motivation.

Causal Beliefs and Effects upon Mental Illness Identification Among Chinese Immigrant Relatives of Individuals with Psychosis.

PubMed

Yang, Lawrence H; Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J

2012-08-01

Identifying factors that facilitate treatment for psychotic disorders among Chinese-immigrants is crucial due to delayed treatment use. Identifying causal beliefs held by relatives that might predict identification of 'mental illness' as opposed to other 'indigenous labels' may promote more effective mental health service use. We examine what effects beliefs of 'physical causes' and other non-biomedical causal beliefs ('general social causes', and 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' or culture-specific epistemologies of illness) might have on mental illness identification. Forty-nine relatives of Chinese-immigrant consumers with psychosis were sampled. Higher endorsement of 'physical causes' was associated with mental illness labeling. However among the non-biomedical causal beliefs, 'general social causes' demonstrated no relationship with mental illness identification, while endorsement of 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' showed a negative relationship. Effective treatment- and community-based psychoeducation, in addition to emphasizing biomedical models, might integrate indigenous Chinese epistemologies of illness to facilitate rapid identification of psychotic disorders and promote treatment use.

Underweight as a risk factor for respiratory death in the Whitehall cohort study: exploring reverse causality using a 45-year follow-up.

PubMed

Kivimäki, Mika; Shipley, Martin J; Bell, Joshua A; Brunner, Eric J; Batty, G David; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2016-01-01

Underweight adults have higher rates of respiratory death than the normal weight but it is unclear whether this association is causal or reflects illness-induced weight loss (reverse causality). Evidence from a 45-year follow-up of underweight participants for respiratory mortality in the Whitehall study (N=18 823; 2139 respiratory deaths) suggests that excess risk among the underweight is attributable to reverse causality. The age-adjusted and smoking-adjusted risk was 1.55-fold (95% CI 1.32 to 1.83) higher among underweight compared with normal weight participants, but attenuated in a stepwise manner to 1.14 (95% CI 0.76 to 1.71) after serial exclusions of deaths during the first 5-35 years of follow-up (P(trend)<0.001). Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Causal Beliefs and Effects upon Mental Illness Identification Among Chinese Immigrant Relatives of Individuals with Psychosis

PubMed Central

Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J.

2013-01-01

Identifying factors that facilitate treatment for psychotic disorders among Chinese-immigrants is crucial due to delayed treatment use. Identifying causal beliefs held by relatives that might predict identification of ‘mental illness’ as opposed to other ‘indigenous labels’ may promote more effective mental health service use. We examine what effects beliefs of ‘physical causes’ and other non-biomedical causal beliefs (‘general social causes’, and ‘indigenous Chinese beliefs’ or culture-specific epistemologies of illness) might have on mental illness identification. Forty-nine relatives of Chinese-immigrant consumers with psychosis were sampled. Higher endorsement of ‘physical causes’ was associated with mental illness labeling. However among the non-biomedical causal beliefs, ‘general social causes’ demonstrated no relationship with mental illness identification, while endorsement of ‘indigenous Chinese beliefs’ showed a negative relationship. Effective treatment- and community-based psychoeducation, in addition to emphasizing biomedical models, might integrate indigenous Chinese epistemologies of illness to facilitate rapid identification of psychotic disorders and promote treatment use. PMID:22075770

Impact of classical risk factors of type 2 diabetes among Asian Indian, Chinese and Japanese populations.

PubMed

He, L; Tuomilehto, J; Qiao, Q; Söderberg, S; Daimon, M; Chambers, J; Pitkäniemi, J

2015-11-01

This review investigated the population impact of major modifiable type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk factors, with special focus on native Asian Indians, to estimate population attributable risks (PARs) and compare them with estimates from Chinese and Japanese populations. Information was obtained on risk factors in 21,041 Asian Indian, 17,774 Chinese and 17,986 Japanese populations from multiple, large, cross-sectional studies (the DECODA project) of T2D. Crude and adjusted PARs were estimated for the major T2D risk factors. Age had the highest crude and adjusted PARs among Asian Indians and Chinese in contrast to waist-hip ratio among Japanese. After adjusting for age, the PAR for body mass index (BMI) in Asian Indians (41.4% [95% CI: 37.2%; 45.4%]) was second only to triglycerides (46.4% [95% CI: 39.5%; 52.8%]) compared with 35.8% [95% CI: 29.9%; 41.4%] in Japanese and 38.4% [95% CI: 33.5%; 43.2%] in Chinese people. The PAR for BMI adjusted for age, LDL and triglycerides (39.7% [95% CI: 31.6%; 47.2%]) was higher than for any other factor in Asian Indians, and was much higher than in the Chinese (16.8% [95% CI: 3.0%; 30.9%]) and Japanese (30.4% [95% CI: 17.5%; 42.2%]) populations. This review provides estimates of the association between major risk factors and prevalences of T2D among Asian populations by examining their PARs from large population-based samples. From a public-health point of view, the importance of BMI in Asian Indians is especially highlighted in comparison to the other Asian populations. Given these results and other recent findings on the causality link between BMI and T2D, it can be postulated that obesity may be involved in the aetiology of T2D through interaction with ethnic-specific genetic factors, although ethnicity itself is not a direct risk factor for T2D as people of all ethnic backgrounds develop diabetes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

[Causal "cancer personality" attribution--an expression of maladaptive coping with illness?].

PubMed

Faller, H; Lang, H; Schilling, S

1996-01-01

In psycho-oncology, the concept of a "cancer-prone personality" has gained some attention. This notion means that persons who try to stay pseudo-normal in spite of severe life stress, suppress negative emotions, particularly anger, and sacrifice themselves for other people without uttering any personal demands, are at a high risk to develop cancer. However, it has been demonstrated by previous research that features of the cancer-prone personality could only be found if the ill person was convinced to suffer from cancer, irrespective of what the factual diagnosis was. Thus it can be concluded that at least some aspects of the so called cancer personality might be the results of coping with the belief of having cancer. The present study had the objective to describe causal attributions to psychosocial factors in cancer patients, and to find out if these were connected with emotional state and coping. N = 120 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients were included in the study. The instruments consisted of a semi-structured interview, a check-list of subjective causal factors, self-reports and interviewer ratings on emotional state and standardised questionnaires about depression and coping. Patients who made a psychosocial causal attribution proved to suffer from greater emotional distress, to be more depressed and less hopeful than other patients. This difference seemed to be mediated by a depressive way of coping with the illness (brooding, wrangling). Thus, an attribution of the illness to psychological factors seems indicative of a maladaptive way of coping with illness. This result is supported by similar findings of previous research. The question is put up to discussion if the psychosomatic concept of a cancer personality may reflect patients' subjective theories which in turn may be the expression of their depressive coping modes.

An exploration of the factor structure and development of potentially useful subscales of etiological beliefs about schizophrenia in a general population sample.

PubMed

Goulding, Sandra M; Broussard, Beth; Demir, Berivan; Compton, Michael T

2009-11-01

Given that accessing care, treatment engagement, and course and outcomes among people with schizophrenia may be influenced by beliefs about causes in the larger community, causal beliefs about schizophrenia have been studied in numerous communities around the world. In particular, the 30-item list of etiological attributions developed by Angermeyer and colleagues has been used to describe causal beliefs in patients, family members, and lay community members within such communities. The current study, the first examination of the latent or factorial structure of these 30 causal beliefs, seeks to provide informative subscales that may enhance reliability and validity of groupings of causes for future analyses involving community members. Data were gathered from six separate surveys involving three distinct groups of individuals from the same community within the southeastern United States: lay community members, relatives of individuals with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, and police officers at the start of a 1-week mental health training program. Exploratory factor analysis in the overall sample (n=577) revealed four factors that were used to define four subscales, termed: personal/family/social stressors (14 items), inconsistent with modern conceptions of risk (8 items), external/environmental insults to the brain (6 items), and consistent with modern biological conceptions (2 items). Cronbach's internal consistency reliability coefficients for these subscales were 0.91, 0.83, 0.71, and 0.65, respectively. These findings suggest that subscales could be derived to provide continuous measures for assessing causal beliefs in order to study how this concept relates to attitudes toward schizophrenia, the people affected by the disorder, and treatments that are recommended by mental health professionals. Replication within similar and dissimilar groups is warranted.

Causal effects on child language development: A review of studies in communication sciences and disorders.

PubMed

Rogers, Clare R; Nulty, Karissa L; Betancourt, Mariana Aparicio; DeThorne, Laura S

2015-01-01

We reviewed recent studies published across key journals within the field of communication sciences and disorders (CSD) to survey what causal influences on child language development were being considered. Specifically, we reviewed a total of 2921 abstracts published within the following journals between 2003 and 2013: Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools (LSHSS); American Journal of Speech-Language Pathology (AJSLP); Journal of Speech, Language, and Hearing Research (JSLHR); Journal of Communication Disorders (JCD); and the International Journal of Language and Communication Disorders (IJLCD). Of the 346 eligible articles that addressed causal factors on child language development across the five journals, 11% were categorized as Genetic (37/346), 83% (287/346) were categorized as Environmental, and 6% (22/346) were categorized as Mixed. The bulk of studies addressing environmental influences focused on therapist intervention (154/296=52%), family/caregiver linguistic input (65/296=22%), or family/caregiver qualities (39/296=13%). A more in-depth review of all eligible studies published in 2013 (n=34) revealed that family/caregiver qualities served as the most commonly controlled environmental factor (e.g., SES) and only 3 studies explicitly noted the possibility of gene-environment interplay. This review highlighted the need to expand the research base for the field of CSD to include a broader range of environmental influences on child language development (e.g., diet, toxin exposure, stress) and to consider more directly the complex and dynamic interplay between genetic and environmental effects. Readers will be able to highlight causal factors on child language development that have been studied over the past decade in CSD and recognize additional influences worthy of consideration. In addition, readers will become familiar with basic tenets of developmental systems theory, including the complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors that shapes child development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial-Temporal Synchrophasor Data Characterization and Analytics in Smart Grid Fault Detection, Identification, and Impact Causal Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Dai, Xiaoxiao; Gao, David Wenzhong

An approach of big data characterization for smart grids (SGs) and its applications in fault detection, identification, and causal impact analysis is proposed in this paper, which aims to provide substantial data volume reduction while keeping comprehensive information from synchrophasor measurements in spatial and temporal domains. Especially, based on secondary voltage control (SVC) and local SG observation algorithm, a two-layer dynamic optimal synchrophasor measurement devices selection algorithm (OSMDSA) is proposed to determine SVC zones, their corresponding pilot buses, and the optimal synchrophasor measurement devices. Combining the two-layer dynamic OSMDSA and matching pursuit decomposition, the synchrophasor data is completely characterized inmore » the spatial-temporal domain. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed characterization approach, SG situational awareness is investigated based on hidden Markov model based fault detection and identification using the spatial-temporal characteristics generated from the reduced data. To identify the major impact buses, the weighted Granger causality for SGs is proposed to investigate the causal relationship of buses during system disturbance. The IEEE 39-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system are employed to validate and evaluate the proposed approach.« less

A review of covariate selection for non-experimental comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Sauer, Brian C; Brookhart, M Alan; Roy, Jason; VanderWeele, Tyler

2013-11-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, whereas adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason, variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely known. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher's knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Review of Covariate Selection for Nonexperimental Comparative Effectiveness Research

PubMed Central

Sauer, Brian C.; Brookhart, Alan; Roy, Jason; Vanderweele, Tyler

2014-01-01

This paper addresses strategies for selecting variables for adjustment in non-experimental comparative effectiveness research (CER), and uses causal graphs to illustrate the causal network that relates treatment to outcome. Variables in the causal network take on multiple structural forms. Adjustment for on a common cause pathway between treatment and outcome can remove confounding, while adjustment for other structural types may increase bias. For this reason variable selection would ideally be based on an understanding of the causal network; however, the true causal network is rarely know. Therefore, we describe more practical variable selection approaches based on background knowledge when the causal structure is only partially known. These approaches include adjustment for all observed pretreatment variables thought to have some connection to the outcome, all known risk factors for the outcome, and all direct causes of the treatment or the outcome. Empirical approaches, such as forward and backward selection and automatic high-dimensional proxy adjustment, are also discussed. As there is a continuum between knowing and not knowing the causal, structural relations of variables, we recommend addressing variable selection in a practical way that involves a combination of background knowledge and empirical selection and that uses the high-dimensional approaches. This empirical approach can be used to select from a set of a priori variables based on the researcher’s knowledge to be included in the final analysis or to identify additional variables for consideration. This more limited use of empirically-derived variables may reduce confounding while simultaneously reducing the risk of including variables that may increase bias. PMID:24006330

Myalgic encephalomyelitis, chronic fatigue syndrome: An infectious disease.

PubMed

Underhill, R A

2015-12-01

The etiology of myalgic encephalomyelitis also known as chronic fatigue syndrome or ME/CFS has not been established. Controversies exist over whether it is an organic disease or a psychological disorder and even the existence of ME/CFS as a disease entity is sometimes denied. Suggested causal hypotheses have included psychosomatic disorders, infectious agents, immune dysfunctions, autoimmunity, metabolic disturbances, toxins and inherited genetic factors. Clinical, immunological and epidemiological evidence supports the hypothesis that: ME/CFS is an infectious disease; the causal pathogen persists in patients; the pathogen can be transmitted by casual contact; host factors determine susceptibility to the illness; and there is a population of healthy carriers, who may be able to shed the pathogen. ME/CFS is endemic globally as sporadic cases and occasional cluster outbreaks (epidemics). Cluster outbreaks imply an infectious agent. An abrupt flu-like onset resembling an infectious illness occurs in outbreak patients and many sporadic patients. Immune responses in sporadic patients resemble immune responses in other infectious diseases. Contagion is shown by finding secondary cases in outbreaks, and suggested by a higher prevalence of ME/CFS in sporadic patients' genetically unrelated close contacts (spouses/partners) than the community. Abortive cases, sub-clinical cases, and carrier state individuals were found in outbreaks. The chronic phase of ME/CFS does not appear to be particularly infective. Some healthy patient-contacts show immune responses similar to patients' immune responses, suggesting exposure to the same antigen (a pathogen). The chronicity of symptoms and of immune system changes and the occurrence of secondary cases suggest persistence of a causal pathogen. Risk factors which predispose to developing ME/CFS are: a close family member with ME/CFS; inherited genetic factors; female gender; age; rest/activity; previous exposure to stress or toxins; various infectious diseases preceding the onset of ME/CFS; and occupational exposure of health care professionals. The hypothesis implies that ME/CFS patients should not donate blood or tissue and usual precautions should be taken when handling patients' blood and tissue. No known pathogen has been shown to cause ME/CFS. Confirmation of the hypothesis requires identification of a causal pathogen. Research should focus on a search for unknown and known pathogens. Finding a causal pathogen could assist with diagnosis; help find a biomarker; enable the development of anti-microbial treatments; suggest preventive measures; explain pathophysiological findings; and reassure patients about the validity of their symptoms.

Confirmatory Factor Analytic Structure and Measurement Invariance of Quantitative Autistic Traits Measured by the Social Responsiveness Scale-2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Frazier, Thomas W.; Ratliff, Kristin R.; Gruber, Chris; Zhang, Yi; Law, Paul A.; Constantino, John N.

2014-01-01

Understanding the factor structure of autistic symptomatology is critical to the discovery and interpretation of causal mechanisms in autism spectrum disorder. We applied confirmatory factor analysis and assessment of measurement invariance to a large ("N" = 9635) accumulated collection of reports on quantitative autistic traits using…

The relationship between work stress and mental disorders in men and women: findings from a population-based study.

PubMed

Wang, J L; Lesage, A; Schmitz, N; Drapeau, A

2008-01-01

[corrected] This analysis estimated the gender-specific associations between work stress, major depression, anxiety disorders and any mental disorder, adjusting for the effects of demographic, socioeconomic, psychological and clinical variables. Data from the Canadian national mental health survey were used to examine the gender-specific relationships between work stress dimensions and mental disorders in the working population (n = 24,277). Mental disorders were assessed using a modified version of the World Mental Health - Composite International Diagnostic Interview. In multivariate analysis, male workers who reported high demand and low control in the workplace were more likely to have had major depression (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.12 to 2.69) and any depressive or anxiety disorders (OR 1.47, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.04) in the past 12 months. In women, high demand and low control was only associated with having any depressive or anxiety disorder (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.84). Job insecurity was positively associated with major depression in men but not in women. Imbalance between work and family life was the strongest factor associated with having mental disorders, regardless of gender. Policies improving the work environment may have positive effects on workers' mental health status. Imbalance between work and family life may be a stronger risk factor than work stress for mental disorders. Longitudinal studies incorporating important workplace health research models are needed to delineate causal relationships between work characteristics and mental disorders.

CARDIOVASCULAR TOXICITY OF PM: SOLUBLE COMPONENTS OR SOLID PARTICLES?

EPA Science Inventory

Since strong suggestion of cardiac-related deaths has arisen from epidemiological studies of ambient PM, a major effort is required to identify PM components and mechanisms responsible for observed cardiac impairments. Unfortunately, it has been difficult to elucidate causality w...

Italian regional health system structure and expected cancer survival.

PubMed

Vercelli, Marina; Lillini, Roberto; Quaglia, Alberto; Capocaccia, Riccardo

2014-01-01

Few studies deal with the association of socioeconomic and health system resource variables with cancer survival at the Italian regional level, where the greatest number of decisions about social and health policies and resource allocations are taken. The present study aimed to describe the causal relationships between socioeconomic and health system resource factors and regional cancer survival and to compute the expected cancer survival at provincial, regional and area levels. Age-standardized relative survival at 5 years from diagnosis of cases incident in 1995-1998 and followed up to 2004 were derived by gender for 11 sites from the Italian Association of Cancer Registries data bank. The socioeconomic and health system resource variables, describing at a regional level the macro-economy, demography, labor market, and health resources for 1995-2005, came from the Health for All database. A principal components factor analysis was applied to the socioeconomic and health system resource variables. For every site, linear regression models were computed considering the relative survival at 5 years as a dependent variable and the principal components factor analysis factors as independent variables. The factors described the socioeconomic and health-related features of the regional systems and were causally related to the characteristics of the patient taken in charge. The models built by the factors allowed computation of the expected relative survival at 5 years with very good concordance with those observed at regional, macro-regional and national levels. In the regions without any cancer registry, survival was coherent with that of neighboring regions with similar socioeconomic and health system resources characteristics. The models highlighted the causal correlations between socioeconomic and health system resources and cancer survival, suggesting that they could be good evaluation tools for the efficiency of the resources allocation and use.

Factors associated with exercise adherence among older adults. An individual perspective.

PubMed

Rhodes, R E; Martin, A D; Taunton, J E; Rhodes, E C; Donnelly, M; Elliot, J

1999-12-01

This paper reviews the literature concerning factors at the individual level associated with regular exercise among older adults. Twenty-seven cross-sectional and 14 prospective/longitudinal studies met the inclusion criteria of a mean participant age of 65 years or older. The findings are summarised by demographics, exercise experience, exercise knowledge, physiological factors, psychological factors, activity preferences and perceived social influences. In general, education and exercise history correlate positively with regular exercise, while perceived physical frailty and poor health may provide the greatest barrier to exercise adoption and adherence in the elderly. Social-cognitive theories identify several constructs that correlate with the regular exercise behaviour of older adults, such as exercise attitude, perceived behavioural control/self-efficacy, perceived social support and perceived benefits/barriers to continued activity. As well, stage modelling may provide additional information about the readiness for regular exercise behaviour among older adults. However, relatively few studies among older adults exist compared with middle-aged and younger adults. Further, the majority of current research consists of cross-sectional designs or short prospective exercise trials among motivated volunteers that may lack external validity. Future research utilising longitudinal and prospective designs with representative samples of older adults will provide a better understanding of significant causal associations between individual factors and regular exercise behaviour.

Eastern minds in western cockpits: meta-analysis of human factors in mishaps from three nations.

PubMed

Li, Wen-Chin; Harris, Don; Chen, Aurora

2007-04-01

Aviation accident rates vary in different regions; Asia and Africa have higher rates than Europe and America. There has been a great deal of discussion about the role of culture in aviation mishaps; however, culture is rarely mentioned as a contributory factor in accidents. It is hypothesized that different cultures will show different patterns in the underlying causal factors in aircraft accidents. Using a meta-analysis of previously published results, this research examined statistical differences in the 18 categories of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) across accidents in the Republic of China (Taiwan), India, and the United States. Seven HFACS categories exhibited significant differences between these three regions. These were mostly concerned with contributory factors at the higher organizational levels. The differences were related to organizational processes, organizational climate, resource management, inadequate supervision, physical/mental limitations, adverse mental states, and decision errors. Overall, the evidence from this research supports the observation that national cultures have an impact on aviation safety and adds further explanatory power with regards to why this should be so. The majority of the cultural issues identified seem to be associated with the style of management of the organizations rather than the operation of the aircraft per se.

Association of physicians' illness perception of fibromyalgia with frustration and resistance to accepting patients: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Homma, Mieko; Ishikawa, Hirono; Kiuchi, Takahiro

2016-04-01

The aim of this study was to elucidate whether physicians' illness perceptions correlate with their frustration or resistance to accepting patients with fibromyalgia (FM). In this cross-sectional postal survey, questionnaires were sent to member physicians of the Japan College of Rheumatology and Japan Rheumatism Foundation. Measures collected included the Brief Illness Perception Questionnaire with Causal Attribution, the Illness Invalidation Inventory, and the Difficult Doctor-Patient Relationship Questionnaire (DDPRQ-10). Multiple logistic regression was performed to examine associations between the DDPRQ-10 and resistance to accepting patients with FM for treatment. We analyzed data from 233 physicians who had experience in consulting with patients with FM. Only 44.2 % answered that they wanted to accept additional patients with FM. Physicians' frustration was associated with difficulty controlling symptoms, patients' emotional responses, and causal attribution of FM to patient internal factors. Conversely, lower levels of frustration were associated with causal attributions to biological factors and uncontrollable external factors. However, the "difficult patient" perception did not correlate with resistance to accepting patients with FM. Difficulty controlling symptoms with treatment was the one factor common to both physicians' frustration and resistance to accepting patients with FM. Physicians may hesitate to accept patients with FM not because of the stigmatic image of the "difficult patient," but instead because of the difficulty in controlling the symptoms of FM. Thus, to improve the quality of consultation, physicians must continuously receive new information about the treatments and causes of FM.

Altered amygdala and hippocampus effective connectivity in mild cognitive impairment patients with depression: a resting-state functional MR imaging study with granger causality analysis

PubMed Central

Zhang, Xin Yuan; Wang, Yun Fei; Liu, Ya; Zheng, Gang; Lu, Guang Ming; Zhang, Long Jiang; Han, Ying

2017-01-01

Neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that the major depression disorder would increase the risk of dementia in the older with amnestic cognitive impairment. We used granger causality analysis algorithm to explore the amygdala- and hippocampus-based directional connectivity patterns in 12 patients with major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment (mean age: 69.5 ± 10.3 years), 13 amnestic cognitive impairment patients (mean age: 72.7 ± 8.5 years) and 14 healthy controls (mean age: 64.7 ± 7.0 years). Compared with amnestic cognitive impairment patients and control groups respectively, the patients with both major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment displayed increased effective connectivity from the right amygdala to the right lingual and calcarine gyrus, as well as to the bilateral supplementary motor areas. Meanwhile, the patients with both major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment had enhanced effective connectivity from the left superior parietal gyrus, superior and middle occipital gyrus to the left hippocampus, the z values of which was also correlated with the scores of mini-mental state examination and auditory verbal learning test-immediate recall. Our findings indicated that the directional effective connectivity of right amygdala - occipital-parietal lobe – left hippocampus might be the pathway by which major depression disorder inhibited the brain activity in patients with amnestic cognitive impairment. PMID:28212570

Altered amygdala and hippocampus effective connectivity in mild cognitive impairment patients with depression: a resting-state functional MR imaging study with granger causality analysis.

PubMed

Zheng, Li Juan; Yang, Gui Fen; Zhang, Xin Yuan; Wang, Yun Fei; Liu, Ya; Zheng, Gang; Lu, Guang Ming; Zhang, Long Jiang; Han, Ying

2017-04-11

Neuroimaging studies have demonstrated that the major depression disorder would increase the risk of dementia in the older with amnestic cognitive impairment. We used granger causality analysis algorithm to explore the amygdala- and hippocampus-based directional connectivity patterns in 12 patients with major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment (mean age: 69.5 ± 10.3 years), 13 amnestic cognitive impairment patients (mean age: 72.7 ± 8.5 years) and 14 healthy controls (mean age: 64.7 ± 7.0 years). Compared with amnestic cognitive impairment patients and control groups respectively, the patients with both major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment displayed increased effective connectivity from the right amygdala to the right lingual and calcarine gyrus, as well as to the bilateral supplementary motor areas. Meanwhile, the patients with both major depression disorder and amnestic cognitive impairment had enhanced effective connectivity from the left superior parietal gyrus, superior and middle occipital gyrus to the left hippocampus, the z values of which was also correlated with the scores of mini-mental state examination and auditory verbal learning test-immediate recall. Our findings indicated that the directional effective connectivity of right amygdala - occipital-parietal lobe - left hippocampus might be the pathway by which major depression disorder inhibited the brain activity in patients with amnestic cognitive impairment.

Disentangling the Correlated Evolution of Monogamy and Cooperation.

PubMed

Dillard, Jacqueline R; Westneat, David F

2016-07-01

Lifetime genetic monogamy, by increasing sibling relatedness, has been proposed as an important causal factor in the evolution of altruism. Monogamy, however, could influence the subsequent evolution of cooperation in other ways. We present several alternative, non-mutually exclusive, evolutionary processes that could explain the correlated evolution of monogamy and cooperation. Our analysis of these possibilities reveals that many ecological or social factors can affect all three variables of Hamilton's Rule simultaneously, thus calling for a more holistic, systems-level approach to studying the evolution of social traits. This perspective reveals novel dimensions to coevolutionary relationships and provides solutions for assigning causality in complex cases of correlated social trait evolution, such as the sequential evolution of monogamy and cooperation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of causal associations between illness and criminal acts in those who are acquitted by reason of insanity.

PubMed

Skeie, Christian Aarup; Rasmussen, Kirsten

2015-02-24

The court proceedings after the terrorist attacks on 22 July 2011 reignited the debate on the justification for having a rule that regulates the insanity defence exclusively on the basis of a medical condition – the medical principle. The psychological principle represents an alternative that requires a causal relationship between the psychosis and the acts committed. In this article we investigate rulings made by the courts of appeal where the accused have been found legally insane at the time of the act, and elucidate the extent to which a causal relationship between the illness and the act appears to be in evidence. Data have been retrieved from rulings by the courts of appeal published at lovdata.no, which include anonymised rulings. Searches were made for cases under Section 39 (verdict of special sanctions) and Section 44 (acquittal by reason of insanity) of the General Civil Penal Code. Court rulings in which a possible causal relationship could be considered were included. The included rulings were carefully assessed with regard to whether a causal relationship existed between the mental disorder of the accused at the time and the criminal act. The search returned a total of 373 rulings, of which 75 were included. The vast majority of the charges referred to serious crimes. Diagnoses under ICD-10 category codes F20-29 (schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders) were the most frequently occurring type. In 17 of the 75 rulings (23%), it was judged that no causal relationship between the illness and the act existed. In 25 of 26 cases that involved homicide, a causal relationship between the illness and the act was judged to be evident. The data may indicate that the medical principle results in impunity in a considerable number of rulings where the illness of the accused apparently has had no effect on the acts committed.

New insights in the pathogenesis of atopic disease.

PubMed

Ionescu, John G

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic-triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive-rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam-heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases.

Modelling runway incursion severity.

PubMed

Wilke, Sabine; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y

2015-06-01

Analysis of the causes underlying runway incursions is fundamental for the development of effective mitigation measures. However, there are significant weaknesses in the current methods to model these factors. This paper proposes a structured framework for modelling causal factors and their relationship to severity, which includes a description of the airport surface system architecture, establishment of terminological definitions, the determination and collection of appropriate data, the analysis of occurrences for severity and causes, and the execution of a statistical analysis framework. It is implemented in the context of U.S. airports, enabling the identification of a number of priority interventions, including the need for better investigation and causal factor capture, recommendations for airfield design, operating scenarios and technologies, and better training for human operators in the system. The framework is recommended for the analysis of runway incursions to support safety improvements and the methodology is transferable to other areas of aviation safety risk analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New Insights in the Pathogenesis of Atopic Disease

PubMed Central

Ionescu, GJ

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic–triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive–rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam–heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases.

New Insights in the Pathogenesis of Atopic Disease

PubMed Central

John G., Ionescu

2009-01-01

A causal link between the increasing environmental pollution and the fast spreading of allergic diseases is currently discussed. The exogenic and endogenic noxious agents contributing to the total environmental load are primarily acting through immunotoxic, sensitizing and neurotoxic mechanisms in animal experiments and in humans. Beside classic allergic-triggering factors (allergen potency, intermittent exposure to different allergen concentrations, presence of microbial bodies and sensitizing phenols), the adjuvant role of environmental pollutants gains increasing importance in allergy induction. Our therapy experience with more than 18.000 atopic eczema patients shows that beside allergic reactions pseudoallergic mechanisms through toxic environmental agents (formaldehyde, industrial and traffic smog, wood preservatives, microbial toxins, additive-rich food, nicotine, alcohol, pesticides, solvents, amalgam-heavy metals) are increasingly incriminated as causal factors for the complex symptomatology. The avoidance and elimination of such triggering factors before and during pregnancy and in early childhood may result in a significant decrease of the incidence of atopic diseases. PMID:20108533

The impact of airport characteristics on airport surface accidents and incidents.

PubMed

Wilke, Sabine; Majumdar, Arnab; Ochieng, Washington Y

2015-06-01

Airport surface safety and in particular runway and taxiway safety is acknowledged globally as one of aviation's greatest challenges. To improve this key area of aviation safety, it is necessary to identify and understand the causal and contributing factors on safety occurrences. While the contribution of human factors, operations, and procedures has been researched extensively, the impact of the airport and its associated characteristics itself has received little or no attention. This paper introduces a novel methodology for risk and hazard assessment of airport surface operations, and models the relationships between airport characteristics, and (a) the rate of occurrences, (b) the severity of occurrences, and (c) the causal factors underlying occurrences. The results show for the first time how the characteristics of airports, and in particular its infrastructure and operations, influence the safety of surface operations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. and National Safety Council. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional ability loss in sensory impaired and sensory unimpaired very old adults: analyzing causal relations with positive affect across four years.

PubMed

Wahl, Hans-Werner; Drapaniotis, Philipp M; Heyl, Vera

2014-11-01

This paper focuses on the relationship between functional ability (FA) and positive affect (PA), a major component of well-being, in sensory impaired very old adults (SI) compared with sensory unimpaired individuals (UI). Previous research mostly suggests a robust causal impact of FA on PA. However, some research, drawing from Fredrickson's broaden-and-build theory, also points to the possibility of an inverse causality between FA and PA. We examine in this paper both of these causal directions in SI as well as UI individuals across a 4year observation period. Additionally, we checked for the role of negative affect (NA). The T1-T2 sample comprised 81 out of 237 SI individuals (visually or hearing impaired) assessed at T1, with a mean age at T1 of 81.8years, and 87 UI individuals out of 150 assessed at T1, with a mean age at T1 of 81.5years. Established scales were used to assess FA, PA, and NA. Using cross-lagged panel analysis to examine the direction of causality, our findings indicate that FA has significant impact on PA in both the SI and the UI group, whereas the alternative causal pathway was not confirmed. Both cross-lagged relationships between FA and NA were non-significant. No group differences in path strengths between SI and UI were present. Our study provides evidence that FA is a key competence for successful emotional aging in vulnerable groups of very old adults such as SI as well as in UI adults in advanced old age. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Research Results Ultra-fast Energy Transfer from Monomer to Dimer within a Trimeric Molecule New Progress in Heterogeneous Catalysis Research Key Progress in Research on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in China A New Progress in Research on the Mechanism of Bio-Invasion New Findings in Anti-viral infection and Control of Inflammation Major Headway in Avian Origin Research New Progress in Gold-Nanoparticle-Based Biochips Topological Insulator Research Made Important Progress Major Progress in Biodiversity Achieved New Developments of Direct Methods in Protein Crystallography Major Progress in China-UK Collaboration on the Causal Relationship between Volcanic Activity and Biological Distinction News in Brief: NSFC set up "Research Fund for Young Foreign Scholars" How Often Does Human DNA Mutate? Research Progress on Colossal Anisotropic Magneto Resistive Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

2009-01-01

Ultra-fast Energy Transfer from Monomer to Dimer within a Trimeric Molecule New Progress in Heterogeneous Catalysis Research Key Progress in Research on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle in China A New Progress in Research on the Mechanism of Bio-Invasion New Findings in Anti-viral infection and Control of Inflammation Major Headway in Avian Origin Research New Progress in Gold-Nanoparticle-Based Biochips Topological Insulator Research Made Important Progress Major Progress in Biodiversity Achieved New Developments of Direct Methods in Protein Crystallography Major Progress in China-UK Collaboration on the Causal Relationship between Volcanic Activity and Biological Distinction News in Brief: NSFC set up "Research Fund for Young Foreign Scholars" How Often Does Human DNA Mutate? Research Progress on Colossal Anisotropic Magneto Resistive Effect

Main communication barriers in the process of delivering bad news to oncological patients - medical perspective.

PubMed

Zielińska, Paulina; Jarosz, Magdalena; Kwiecińska, Agnieszka; Bętkowska-Korpała, Barbara

2017-01-01

Delivering bad news is a major aspect of a doctor's work. The literature most often refers to patient's expectations or needs, and methods of delivering bad news, while medical perspective is often skipped. The purpose of this paper is to examine competencies (knowledge, skills and experience) in delivering bad news by medical specialists in the areas related to the causal and symptomatic treatment of oncological patients; identification of major communication problems and obstacles in this specific situation and evaluation of teaching needs for delivering bad news. The study was performed on a group of 61 medical specialists in the areas related to the causal and symptomatic treatment of oncological patients, using a self-generated questionnaire based on other studies in the literature. Topics that are considered most demanding are: delivering news on the termination of causal treatment and preparing the patient/ close ones for death. The most difficult aspect of such discussions for the respondents was associated with the emotions manifested by the patient. On the other hand, doctors were mostly distressed by the feeling of taking the patient's hope away. The study points to the need for education of doctors in the eld of techniques for delivering bad news, particularly in the area of dealing with the emotions manifested by the patient and giving them real hope. The results encourage to conduct studies on a larger group of doctors.

Public beliefs about causes and risk factors for mental disorders: a comparison of Japan and Australia

PubMed Central

Nakane, Yoshibumi; Jorm, Anthony F; Yoshioka, Kumiko; Christensen, Helen; Nakane, Hideyuki; Griffiths, Kathleen M

2005-01-01

Background Surveys of the public in a range of Western countries have shown a predominant belief in social stressors as causes of mental disorders. However, there has been little direct cross-cultural comparison. Here we report a comparison of public beliefs about the causes of mental disorders in Japan and Australia. Methods Surveys of the public were carried out in each country using as similar a methodology as feasible. In both countries, household interviews were carried out concerning beliefs about causes and risk factors in relation to one of four case vignettes, describing either depression, depression with suicidal thoughts, early schizophrenia or chronic schizophrenia. In Japan, the survey involved 2000 adults aged between 20 and 69 from 25 regional sites spread across the country. In Australia, the survey involved a national sample of 3998 adults aged 18 years or over. Results In both countries, both social and personal vulnerability causes were commonly endorsed across all vignettes. The major differences in causal beliefs were that Australians were more likely to believe in infection, allergy and genetics, while Japanese were more likely to endorse "nervous person" and "weakness of character". For risk factors, Australians tended to believe that women, the young and the poor were more at risk of depression, but these were not seen as higher risk groups by Japanese. Conclusion In both Japan and Australia, the public has a predominant belief in social causes and risk factors, with personal vulnerability factors also seen as important. However, there are also some major differences between the countries. The belief in weakness of character as a cause, which was stronger in Japan, is of particular concern because it may reduce the likelihood of seeking professional help and support from others. PMID:16174303

Impact of housing improvement and the socio-physical environment on the mental health of children's carers: a cohort study in Australian Aboriginal communities.

PubMed

Bailie, Ross S; Stevens, Matthew; McDonald, Elizabeth L

2014-05-19

The mental health of carers is an important proximate factor in the causal web linking housing conditions to child health, as well as being important in its own right. Improved understanding of the nature of the relationships between housing conditions, carer mental health and child health outcomes is therefore important for informing the development of housing programs. This paper examines the relationship between the mental health of the carers of young children, housing conditions, and other key factors in the socio-physical environment. This analysis is part of a broader prospective cohort study of children living in Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory (NT) of Australia at the time of major new community housing programs. Carer's mental health was assessed using two validated scales: the Affect Balance scale and the Brief Screen for Depression. The quality of housing infrastructure was assessed through detailed surveys. Secondary explanatory variables included a range of socio-environmental factors, including validated measures of stressful life events. Hierarchical regression modelling was used to assess associations between outcome and explanatory variables at baseline, and associations between change in housing conditions and change in outcomes between baseline and follow-up. There was no clear or consistent evidence of a causal relationship between the functional state of household infrastructure and the mental health of carers of young children. The strongest and most consistent associations with carer mental health were the measures of negative life events, with a dose-response relationship, and adjusted odds ratio of over 6 for carers in the highest stress exposure category at baseline, and consistent associations in the follow up analysis. The findings highlight the need for housing programs to be supported by social, behavioral and community-wide environmental programs if potential health gains are to be more fully realized, and for rigorous evaluation of such programs for the purpose of informing future housing initiatives.

Jordanian Pre-Service Teachers' and Technology Integration: A Human Resource Development Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Al-Ruz, Jamal Abu; Khasawneh, Samer

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to test a model in which technology integration of pre-service teachers was predicted by a number of university-based and school-based factors. Initially, factors affecting technology integration were identified, and a research-based path model was developed to explain causal relationships between these factors. The…

Environmental influences on energy balance-related behaviors: A dual-process view

PubMed Central

Kremers, Stef PJ; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Visscher, Tommy LS; van Mechelen, Willem; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

2006-01-01

Background Studies on the impact of the 'obesogenic' environment have often used non-theoretical approaches. In this journal's debate and in other papers authors have argued the necessity of formulating conceptual models for differentiating the causal role of environmental influences on behavior. Discussion The present paper aims to contribute to the debate by presenting a dual-process view on the environment – behavior relationship. This view is conceptualized in the EnRG framework (Environmental Research framework for weight Gain prevention). In the framework, behavior is postulated to be the result of a simultaneous influence of conscious and unconscious processes. Environmental influences are hypothesized to influence behavior both indirectly and directly. The indirect causal mechanism reflects the mediating role of behavior-specific cognitions in the influence of the environment on behavior. A direct influence reflects the automatic, unconscious, influence of the environment on behavior. Specific personal and behavioral factors are postulated to moderate the causal path (i.e., inducing either the automatic or the cognitively mediated environment – behavior relation). In addition, the EnRG framework applies an energy balance-approach, stimulating the integrated study of determinants of diet and physical activity. Conclusion The application of a dual-process view may guide research towards causal mechanisms linking specific environmental features with energy balance-related behaviors in distinct populations. The present paper is hoped to contribute to the evolution of a paradigm that may help to disentangle the role of 'obesogenic' environmental factors. PMID:16700907

Causal Effect of Self-esteem on Cigarette Smoking Stages in Adolescents: Coarsened Exact Matching in a Longitudinal Study.

PubMed

Khosravi, Ahmad; Mohammadpoorasl, Asghar; Holakouie-Naieni, Kourosh; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Pouyan, Ali Akbar; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-12-01

Identification of the causal impact of self-esteem on smoking stages faces seemingly insurmountable problems in observational data, where self-esteem is not manipulable by the researcher and cannot be assigned randomly. The aim of this study was to find out if weaker self-esteem in adolescence is a risk factor of cigarette smoking in a longitudinal study in Iran. In this longitudinal study, 4,853 students (14-18 years) completed a self-administered multiple-choice anonym questionnaire. The students were evaluated twice, 12 months apart. Students were matched based on coarsened exact matching on pretreatment variables, including age, gender, smoking stages at the first wave of study, socioeconomic status, general risk-taking behavior, having a smoker in the family, having a smoker friend, attitude toward smoking, and self-injury, to ensure statistically equivalent comparison groups. Self-esteem was measured using the Rosenberg 10-item questionnaire and were classified using a latent class analysis. After matching, the effect of self-esteem was evaluated using a multinomial logistic model. In the causal fitted model, for adolescents with weaker self-esteem relative to those with stronger self-esteem, the relative risk for experimenters and regular smokers relative to nonsmokers would be expected to increase by a factor of 2.2 (1.9-2.6) and 2.0 (1.5-2.6), respectively. Using a causal approach, our study indicates that low self-esteem is consistently associated with progression in cigarette smoking stages.

Age at Menarche and Time Spent in Education: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

PubMed

Gill, D; Del Greco M, F; Rawson, T M; Sivakumaran, P; Brown, A; Sheehan, N A; Minelli, C

2017-09-01

Menarche signifies the primary event in female puberty and is associated with changes in self-identity. It is not clear whether earlier puberty causes girls to spend less time in education. Observational studies on this topic are likely to be affected by confounding environmental factors. The Mendelian randomization (MR) approach addresses these issues by using genetic variants (such as single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) as proxies for the risk factor of interest. We use this technique to explore whether there is a causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education. Instruments and SNP-age at menarche estimates are identified from a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) meta-analysis of 182,416 women of European descent. The effects of instruments on time spent in education are estimated using a GWAS meta-analysis of 118,443 women performed by the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC). In our main analysis, we demonstrate a small but statistically significant causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education: a 1 year increase in age at menarche is associated with 0.14 years (53 days) increase in time spent in education (95% CI 0.10-0.21 years, p = 3.5 × 10 -8 ). The causal effect is confirmed in sensitivity analyses. In identifying this positive causal effect of age at menarche on time spent in education, we offer further insight into the social effects of puberty in girls.

A new approach to hierarchical data analysis: Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for the causal effect of a cluster-level exposure.

PubMed

Balzer, Laura B; Zheng, Wenjing; van der Laan, Mark J; Petersen, Maya L

2018-01-01

We often seek to estimate the impact of an exposure naturally occurring or randomly assigned at the cluster-level. For example, the literature on neighborhood determinants of health continues to grow. Likewise, community randomized trials are applied to learn about real-world implementation, sustainability, and population effects of interventions with proven individual-level efficacy. In these settings, individual-level outcomes are correlated due to shared cluster-level factors, including the exposure, as well as social or biological interactions between individuals. To flexibly and efficiently estimate the effect of a cluster-level exposure, we present two targeted maximum likelihood estimators (TMLEs). The first TMLE is developed under a non-parametric causal model, which allows for arbitrary interactions between individuals within a cluster. These interactions include direct transmission of the outcome (i.e. contagion) and influence of one individual's covariates on another's outcome (i.e. covariate interference). The second TMLE is developed under a causal sub-model assuming the cluster-level and individual-specific covariates are sufficient to control for confounding. Simulations compare the alternative estimators and illustrate the potential gains from pairing individual-level risk factors and outcomes during estimation, while avoiding unwarranted assumptions. Our results suggest that estimation under the sub-model can result in bias and misleading inference in an observational setting. Incorporating working assumptions during estimation is more robust than assuming they hold in the underlying causal model. We illustrate our approach with an application to HIV prevention and treatment.

Gluten-induced cognitive impairment ("brain fog") in coeliac disease.

PubMed

Yelland, Gregory W

2017-03-01

Much is known about the serious neurological effects of gluten ingestion in coeliac disease patients, such as sporadic ataxia and peripheral neuropathy, although the causal links to gluten are still under debate. However, such disorders are observed in only a small percentage of coeliac patients. Much less is known about the transient cognitive impairments to memory, attention, executive function, and the speed of cognitive processing reported by the majority of patients with coeliac disease. These mild degradations of cognitive functions, referred to as "brain fog," are yet to be formally recognized as a medical or psychological condition. However, subtle tests of cognitive function are measurable in untreated patients with coeliac disease and improve over the first 12 months' therapy with a gluten-free diet. Such deficits also occur in patients with Crohn's disease, particularly in association with systemic inflammatory activity. Thus, cognitive impairments associated with brain fog are psychologically and neurologically real and improve with adherence to a gluten-free diet. There is not yet sufficient evidence to provide a definitive account of the mechanism by which gluten ingestion causes the impairments to cognitive function associated with brain fog, but current evidence suggests that it is more likely that the causal factor is not directly related to exposure to gluten. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

The 'royal disease'--haemophilia A or B? A haematological mystery is finally solved.

PubMed

Lannoy, N; Hermans, C

2010-11-01

  'History can change blood. And blood can change the course of history'. Haemophilia is an illustration of this, as this congenital hereditary coagulation disorder, passed through the majority of royal European families at the beginning of the 20th century by Queen Victoria of England and Empress of the Indies, had indisputable political consequences, which led to one of the most defining moments of contemporary history: the Bolshevik Revolution. Today, none of Queen Victoria's living descendents carry haemophilia. Because of this, the characterization of haemophilia (deficit of either factor VIII or XI) and the identification of the causal mutation are rendered impossible. In 1991, a tomb containing the remains of Czar Nicolas II's entire family was discovered. A second tomb was discovered in 2007, allowing Russian and American scientists to fill in this gap in medical history. Following a scientific approach combining current genetic experimentation tools and the development of biological information technology, researchers were able to identify each body, allowing them to obtain precious genetic material from the young Czar Alexis, who was stricken by the disease, which revealed a causal substitution in the splice acceptor site of exon 4 in the F9 gene. This mutation that is responsible for haemophilia B had traumatized European royal families throughout the 20th century! © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Drug Induced Liver Injury: Can Biomarkers Assist RUCAM in Causality Assessment?

PubMed Central

Teschke, Rolf; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel; Danan, Gaby

2017-01-01

Drug induced liver injury (DILI) is a potentially serious adverse reaction in a few susceptible individuals under therapy by various drugs. Health care professionals facing DILI are confronted with a wealth of drug-unrelated liver diseases with high incidence and prevalence rates, which can confound the DILI diagnosis. Searching for alternative causes is a key element of RUCAM (Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method) to assess rigorously causality in suspected DILI cases. Diagnostic biomarkers as blood tests would be a great help to clinicians, regulators, and pharmaceutical industry would be more comfortable if, in addition to RUCAM, causality of DILI can be confirmed. High specificity and sensitivity are required for any diagnostic biomarker. Although some risk factors are available to evaluate liver safety of drugs in patients, no valid diagnostic or prognostic biomarker exists currently for idiosyncratic DILI when a liver injury occurred. Identifying a biomarker in idiosyncratic DILI requires detailed knowledge of cellular and biochemical disturbances leading to apoptosis or cell necrosis and causing leakage of specific products in blood. As idiosyncratic DILI is typically a human disease and hardly reproducible in animals, pathogenetic events and resulting possible biomarkers remain largely undisclosed. Potential new diagnostic biomarkers should be evaluated in patients with DILI and RUCAM-based established causality. In conclusion, causality assessment in cases of suspected idiosyncratic DILI is still best achieved using RUCAM since specific biomarkers as diagnostic blood tests that could enhance RUCAM results are not yet available. PMID:28398242

The major origin of seedless grapes is associated with a missense mutation in the MADS-box gene VviAGL11.

PubMed

Royo, Carolina; Torres-Pérez, Rafael; Mauri, Nuria; Diestro, Nieves; Cabezas, José Antonio; Marchal, Cécile; Lacombe, Thierry; Ibáñez, Javier; Tornel, Manuel; Carreño, Juan; Martínez-Zapater, José M; Carbonell-Bejerano, Pablo

2018-05-31

Seedlessness is greatly prized by consumers of fresh grapes. While stenospermocarpic seed abortion determined by the SEED DEVELOPMENT INHIBITOR (SDI) locus is the usual source of seedlessness in commercial grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cultivars, the underlying sdi mutation remains unknown. Here, we undertook an integrative approach to identify the causal mutation. Quantitative genetics and fine mapping in two 'Crimson Seedless' (CS)-derived F1 mapping populations confirmed the major effect of the SDI locus and delimited the sdi mutation to a 323-kb region on chromosome 18. RNA-seq comparing seed traces of seedless and seeds of seeded F1 individuals identified processes triggered during sdi-determined seed abortion, including activation of salicylic acid-dependent defenses. The RNA-seq dataset was investigated for candidate genes and, while no evidence for causal cis-acting regulatory mutations was detected, deleterious nucleotide changes in coding sequences of the seedless haplotype were predicted in two genes within the sdi fine mapping interval. Targeted re-sequencing of the two genes in a collection of 124 grapevine cultivars showed that only the point variation causing the Arg197Leu substitution in the seed morphogenesis regulator gene AGAMOUS-LIKE 11 (VviAGL11) was fully linked with stenospermocarpy. The concurrent post-zygotic variation identified for this missense polymorphism and seedlessness phenotype in seeded somatic variants of the original stenospermocarpic cultivar supports a causal effect. We postulate that seed abortion caused by this amino acid substitution in VviAGL11 is the major cause of seedlessness in cultivated grapevine. This information can be exploited to boost seedless grape breeding. {copyright, serif} 2018 American Society of Plant Biologists. All rights reserved.

What Can Causal Networks Tell Us about Metabolic Pathways?

PubMed Central

Blair, Rachael Hageman; Kliebenstein, Daniel J.; Churchill, Gary A.

2012-01-01

Graphical models describe the linear correlation structure of data and have been used to establish causal relationships among phenotypes in genetic mapping populations. Data are typically collected at a single point in time. Biological processes on the other hand are often non-linear and display time varying dynamics. The extent to which graphical models can recapitulate the architecture of an underlying biological processes is not well understood. We consider metabolic networks with known stoichiometry to address the fundamental question: “What can causal networks tell us about metabolic pathways?”. Using data from an Arabidopsis BaySha population and simulated data from dynamic models of pathway motifs, we assess our ability to reconstruct metabolic pathways using graphical models. Our results highlight the necessity of non-genetic residual biological variation for reliable inference. Recovery of the ordering within a pathway is possible, but should not be expected. Causal inference is sensitive to subtle patterns in the correlation structure that may be driven by a variety of factors, which may not emphasize the substrate-product relationship. We illustrate the effects of metabolic pathway architecture, epistasis and stochastic variation on correlation structure and graphical model-derived networks. We conclude that graphical models should be interpreted cautiously, especially if the implied causal relationships are to be used in the design of intervention strategies. PMID:22496633

Monitoring signals for vaccine safety: the assessment of individual adverse event reports by an expert advisory committee. Advisory Committee on Causality Assessment.

PubMed Central

Collet, J. P.; MacDonald, N.; Cashman, N.; Pless, R.

2000-01-01

Monitoring vaccine safety is a complex and shared responsibility. It can be carried out in many ways, one of which is the reporting of individual cases of adverse reactions thought to be due to vaccination. The task is difficult because ascribing causality to an individual case report is fraught with challenges. A standardized evaluation instrument--known as the causality assessment form--was therefore developed for use by an expert advisory committee to facilitate the process. By following the several sections in this form, the members of the committee are taken through a series of points to establish causality. These points include the basic criteria for causation such as biological plausibility, the time elapsed between the vaccine administration and the onset of the adverse event, and whether other factors (drugs, chemicals or underlying disease) could account for the adverse symptoms. The form concludes with a consensus assessment of causality, a commentary about the assessment, and advice for further study or follow-up. This method of assessing the more serious cases of adverse reaction reported to vaccination has proven useful in evaluating ongoing safety of vaccines in Canada. Through analyses such as this, new signals can be identified and investigated further. PMID:10743282

The psychophysics of comic: Effects of incongruity in causality and animacy.

PubMed

Parovel, Giulia; Guidi, Stefano

2015-07-01

According to several theories of humour (see Berger, 2012; Martin, 2007), incongruity - i.e., the presence of two incompatible meanings in the same situation - is a crucial condition for an event being evaluated as comical. The aim of this research was to test with psychophysical methods the role of incongruity in visual perception by manipulating the causal paradigm (Michotte, 1946/1963) to get a comic effect. We ran three experiments. In Experiment 1, we tested the role of speed ratio between the first and the second movement, and the effect of animacy cues (i.e. frog-like and jumping-like trajectories) in the second movement; in Experiment 2, we manipulated the temporal delay between the movements to explore the relationship between perceptual causal contingencies and comic impressions; in Experiment 3, we compared the strength of the comic impressions arising from incongruent trajectories based on animacy cues with those arising from incongruent trajectories not based on animacy cues (bouncing and rotating) in the second part of the causal event. General findings showed that the paradoxical juxtaposition of a living behaviour in the perceptual causal paradigm is a powerful factor in eliciting comic appreciations, coherently with the Bergsonian perspective in particular (Bergson, 2003), and with incongruity theories in general. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DES daughters in France: experts' points of view on the various genital, uterine and obstetric pathologies, and in utero DES exposure.

PubMed

Clement, R; Guilbaud, E; Barrios, L; Rougé-Maillart, C; Jousset, N; Rodat, O

2014-10-01

Compensation of diethylstilbestrol exposure depends on the judicial system. In France, girls having been exposed to diethylstilbestrol are currently being compensated, and each exposure victim is being evaluated. Fifty-nine expert evaluations were studied to determine the causal relation between exposure to diethylstilbestrol and the pathologies attributable to diethylstilbestrol. The following were taken into consideration: age at the first signs of the pathology; age of the sufferer at the time of evaluation; the pathologies grouped into five categories: fertility disorders - cancers - mishaps during pregnancy - psychosomatic complaints - pathologies of "3rd generation DES victims"; submission of proof of DES exposure; the degree of causality determined (direct, indirect, ruled out). 61% of the cases related to fertility disorders, 28.8% to cancer pathologies (clear-cell adenocarcinoma), 18.6% to mishaps during pregnancy, 8.5% to disorders resulting from preterm delivery, and 3.4% to psychosomatic disorders. Some cases involved a combination of two types of complaints. Indirect causality was determined in 47.1% of the cases involving primary sterility, in 66.7% involving secondary sterility, and in 5 out of 6 cases of total sterility. There is direct causality between in utero diethylstilbestrol exposure and vaginal or cervical clear cell adenocarcinoma. Causality is indirect in the case of disorders linked to prematurity in third generation victims. Causality was determined by the experts on the basis of scientific criteria which attribute the presenting pathologies to diethylstilbestrol exposure. When other risk factors come into play, or when exposure is indirect (third generation), this causality is diminished. © IMechE 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland.

PubMed

Mantwill, Sarah; Schulz, Peter J

2016-01-01

This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. For both immigrant groups the physician's influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship.

Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Methods Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. Results For both immigrant groups the physician’s influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p <.05). With regard to coping, both immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p <.05). The only consistent interaction effect that was found indicated that being Albanian-speaking negatively moderated the relationship between physical activity as an attributed cause of back pain and all three identified coping maxims. Conclusion The study shows that differences in causal attribution and coping maxims between immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship. PMID:27583445

Identification of causal genes for complex traits

PubMed Central

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2015-01-01

Motivation: Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider ‘causal variants’ as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. Results: In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Availability and implementation: Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. Contact: eeskin@cs.ucla.edu PMID:26072484

Identification of causal genes for complex traits.

PubMed

Hormozdiari, Farhad; Kichaev, Gleb; Yang, Wen-Yun; Pasaniuc, Bogdan; Eskin, Eleazar

2015-06-15

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified thousands of variants associated with common diseases and complex traits, only a handful of these variants are validated to be causal. We consider 'causal variants' as variants which are responsible for the association signal at a locus. As opposed to association studies that benefit from linkage disequilibrium (LD), the main challenge in identifying causal variants at associated loci lies in distinguishing among the many closely correlated variants due to LD. This is particularly important for model organisms such as inbred mice, where LD extends much further than in human populations, resulting in large stretches of the genome with significantly associated variants. Furthermore, these model organisms are highly structured and require correction for population structure to remove potential spurious associations. In this work, we propose CAVIAR-Gene (CAusal Variants Identification in Associated Regions), a novel method that is able to operate across large LD regions of the genome while also correcting for population structure. A key feature of our approach is that it provides as output a minimally sized set of genes that captures the genes which harbor causal variants with probability ρ. Through extensive simulations, we demonstrate that our method not only speeds up computation, but also have an average of 10% higher recall rate compared with the existing approaches. We validate our method using a real mouse high-density lipoprotein data (HDL) and show that CAVIAR-Gene is able to identify Apoa2 (a gene known to harbor causal variants for HDL), while reducing the number of genes that need to be tested for functionality by a factor of 2. Software is freely available for download at genetics.cs.ucla.edu/caviar. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

Socioeconomic inequality in health in the British household panel: Tests of the social causation, health selection and the indirect selection hypothesis using dynamic fixed effects panel models.

PubMed

Foverskov, Else; Holm, Anders

2016-02-01

Despite social inequality in health being well documented, it is still debated which causal mechanism best explains the negative association between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health. This paper is concerned with testing the explanatory power of three widely proposed causal explanations for social inequality in health in adulthood: the social causation hypothesis (SEP determines health), the health selection hypothesis (health determines SEP) and the indirect selection hypothesis (no causal relationship). We employ dynamic data of respondents aged 30 to 60 from the last nine waves of the British Household Panel Survey. Household income and location on the Cambridge Scale is included as measures of different dimensions of SEP and health is measured as a latent factor score. The causal hypotheses are tested using a time-based Granger approach by estimating dynamic fixed effects panel regression models following the method suggested by Anderson and Hsiao. We propose using this method to estimate the associations over time since it allows one to control for all unobserved time-invariant factors and hence lower the chances of biased estimates due to unobserved heterogeneity. The results showed no proof of the social causation hypothesis over a one to five year period and limited support for the health selection hypothesis was seen only for men in relation to HH income. These findings were robust in multiple sensitivity analysis. We conclude that the indirect selection hypothesis may be the most important in explaining social inequality in health in adulthood, indicating that the well-known cross-sectional correlations between health and SEP in adulthood seem not to be driven by a causal relationship, but instead by dynamics and influences in place before the respondents turn 30 years old that affect both their health and SEP onwards. The conclusion is limited in that we do not consider the effect of specific diseases and causal relationships in adulthood may be present over a longer timespan than 5 years. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Causal role for the subthalamic nucleus in interrupting behavior

PubMed Central

Fife, Kathryn H; Gutierrez-Reed, Navarre A; Zell, Vivien; Bailly, Julie; Lewis, Christina M; Aron, Adam R; Hnasko, Thomas S

2017-01-01

Stopping or pausing in response to threats, conflicting information, or surprise is fundamental to behavior. Evidence across species has shown that the subthalamic nucleus (STN) is activated by scenarios involving stopping or pausing, yet evidence that the STN causally implements stops or pauses is lacking. Here we used optogenetics to activate or inhibit mouse STN to test its putative causal role. We first demonstrated that optogenetic stimulation of the STN excited its major projection targets. Next we showed that brief activation of STN projection neurons was sufficient to interrupt or pause a self-initiated bout of licking. Finally, we developed an assay in which surprise was used to interrupt licking, and showed that STN inhibition reduced the disruptive effect of surprise. Thus STN activation interrupts behavior, and blocking the STN blunts the interruptive effect of surprise. These results provide strong evidence that the STN is both necessary and sufficient for such forms of behavioral response suppression. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.27689.001 PMID:28742497

Copy number analysis reveals a novel multiexon deletion of the COLQ gene in congenital myasthenia.

PubMed

Wang, Wei; Wu, Yanhong; Wang, Chen; Jiao, Jinsong; Klein, Christopher J

2016-12-01

Congenital myasthenic syndrome (CMS) is genetically and clinically heterogeneous. 1 Despite a considerable number of causal genes discovered, many patients are left without a specific diagnosis after genetic testing. The presumption is that novel genes yet to be discovered will account for the majority of such patients. However, it is also possible that we are neglecting a type of genetic variation: copy number changes (>50 bp) as causal for some of these patients. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) can simultaneously screen all known causal genes 2 and is increasingly being validated to have a potential to identify copy number changes. 3 We present a CMS case who did not receive a genetic diagnosis from previous Sanger sequencing, but through a novel copy number analysis algorithm integrated into our targeted NGS panel, we discovered a novel copy number mutation in the COLQ gene and made a genetic diagnosis. This discovery expands the genotype-phenotype correlation of CMS, leads to improved genetic counsel, and allows for specific pharmacologic treatment. 1 .

Explanation of obsessive-compulsive disorder and major depressive disorder on the basis of thought-action fusion.

PubMed

Ghamari Kivi, Hossein; Mohammadipour Rik, Ne'mat; Sadeghi Movahhed, Fariba

2013-01-01

Thought-action fusion (TAF) refers to the tendency to assume incorrect causal relationship between one's own thoughts and external reality, in which, thoughts and actions are treated as equivalents. This construct is present to development and maintenance of many psychological disorders. The aim of the present study was to predict obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) and its types, and major depressive disorder (MDD) with TAF and its levels. Two groups, included 50 persons with OCD and MDD, respectively, were selected by convenience sampling method in private and governmental psychiatric centers in Ardabil, Iran. Then, they responded to Beck Depression Inventory, Padua Inventory and TAF scale. Data were analysed using multiple regressions analysis by stepwise method. TAF or its subtypes (moral TAF, likelihood-self TAF and likelihood-others TAF) can explain 14% of MDD variance (p < 0.01), 15% of OCD variance (p < 0.01), and 8-21% of OCD types variance (p < 0.05). Moral TAF had high levels in OCD and MDD. The construct of TAF is not specific factor for OCD, and it is present in MDD, too. None.

Spatiotemporal Exploration of Impacts of Coupled Climate and Socioeconomic Changes on Grassland Ecosystems (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Y.

2013-12-01

Although the coupled impacts of climate change and human adaptation on land cover change has been a prime research topic in recent years, a majority of reported efforts are examining the coupled effects of climate and socioeconomic factors qualitatively. Even though some are applying statistical methods, they often look into the impacts of coupled climate variations and socioeconomic transformations on land cover changes in a detached or sequential manner, or they handle socioeconomic influences indirectly through land use changes. Very few of them deal with the coupled effects concurrently through times and cross regions. We assimilate a big dataset of climate change, plant community growth condition, and socioeconomic transformation in Inner Mongolia of China. The study area consists of twelve types of plant communities, reflecting an east-to-west water-temperature gradient from moist meadow-type, to typical steppe-type and then to arid desert-type communities. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI), derived from MODIS at a 250 m resolution and 16-day intervals from May 8 to September 28 during 2000-2010, is adopted as a proxy for vegetation growth. The inter-annual and intra-annual changes of seven climate factors (barometric pressure, humidity, precipitation, sunlight hours, temperature, vapor pressure and wind speed) during the same period are synchronized with the EVI observations. Ten socioeconomic variables (urban population, urban GDP, rural GDP, grain output, livestock, fixed assets investment, local government revenue, per capita net income of farmers and pastoralists, the total length of highways, and rural population) are collected over 34 counties in the study area and during the same period. The GIS-based spatial database approach is adopted to integrate all of the above data into a big spatiotemporal dataset. We develop a multi-controlled panel-data regression model to investigate spatiotemporal changes of vegetation growth and their underlying causes of coupled climate and human impacts. We are able to examine the causal relationships between vegetation growth and coupled climate change and socioeconomic transformation either from the perspective of seasonal, annual, eco-regional, or by-county change, respectively. Most importantly, we can investigate the causal relations concurrently over seasons and years and across administrative or ecological regions. The findings confirm that climate changes and human socioeconomic activities jointly affect vegetation growth and its trajectory of change; these climate and human factors reveal varied levels of impacts (sunshine hour, humidity, vapor, grain production, precipitation, urban-GDP, livestock, and urban population in descending order positively affect vegetation growth, while rural-GDP and rural population negatively do); and the causal relationships show clear seasonal trends, annual fluctuations, and regional disparities, depending on a variety of ecologically and economically varying contextual factors. The potential of applying our model and approach in the Eurasian Steppes is very promising.

Critical assessment of opposing views on trends in childhood cancer.

PubMed

Bukowski, J A

2000-01-01

Two articles reaching opposite conclusions on the current trends in childhood cancer have recently appeared in the literature. One concluded that pediatric cancers have increased dramatically, suggesting an effect from environmental hazards; the other concluded that rates for the major pediatric cancers have remained fairly stable, except for modest increases due to improvements in diagnosis or reporting. This review discusses the reasons for this discrepancy, including differences in the populations, age groups, and time periods analyzed. The arguments in favor of an increase are examined and shown to provide no convincing evidence that environmental pollutants have increased pediatric cancer rates over the past 20 to 30 years. Any suggested increase appears to be the result of non-causal factors, such as selective analysis and reporting, residual confounding by age, random variation, and stepwise improvements in diagnosis and classification.

Self-organizing map analysis using multivariate data from theophylline tablets predicted by a thin-plate spline interpolation.

PubMed

Yasuda, Akihito; Onuki, Yoshinori; Obata, Yasuko; Yamamoto, Rie; Takayama, Kozo

2013-01-01

The "quality by design" concept in pharmaceutical formulation development requires the establishment of a science-based rationale and a design space. We integrated thin-plate spline (TPS) interpolation and Kohonen's self-organizing map (SOM) to visualize the latent structure underlying causal factors and pharmaceutical responses. As a model pharmaceutical product, theophylline tablets were prepared based on a standard formulation. The tensile strength, disintegration time, and stability of these variables were measured as response variables. These responses were predicted quantitatively based on nonlinear TPS. A large amount of data on these tablets was generated and classified into several clusters using an SOM. The experimental values of the responses were predicted with high accuracy, and the data generated for the tablets were classified into several distinct clusters. The SOM feature map allowed us to analyze the global and local correlations between causal factors and tablet characteristics. The results of this study suggest that increasing the proportion of microcrystalline cellulose (MCC) improved the tensile strength and the stability of tensile strength of these theophylline tablets. In addition, the proportion of MCC has an optimum value for disintegration time and stability of disintegration. Increasing the proportion of magnesium stearate extended disintegration time. Increasing the compression force improved tensile strength, but degraded the stability of disintegration. This technique provides a better understanding of the relationships between causal factors and pharmaceutical responses in theophylline tablet formulations.

A Children of Twins Study of parental divorce and offspring psychopathology.

PubMed

D'Onofrio, Brian M; Turkheimer, Eric; Emery, Robert E; Maes, Hermine H; Silberg, Judy; Eaves, Lindon J

2007-07-01

Although parental divorce is associated with increased substance use and internalizing problems, experiencing the separation of one's parents may not cause these outcomes. The relations may be due to genetic or environmental selection factors, characteristics that lead to both marital separation and offspring functioning. We used the Children of Twins (CoT) Design to explore whether unmeasured genetic or environmental factors related to the twin parent, and measured characteristics of both parents, account for the association between parental divorce and offspring substance use and internalizing problems. The association between parental divorce and offspring substance use problems remained robust when controlling for genetic and environmental risk from the twin parent associated with parental divorce, and measured characteristics of both parents. The results do not prove, but are consistent with, a causal connection. In contrast, the analyses suggest that shared genetic liability in parents and their offspring accounts for the increased risk of internalizing problems in adult offspring from divorced families. The study illustrates that unmeasured genetic and environmental selection factors must be considered when studying parental divorce. In explaining associations between parental divorce and young-adult adjustment, our evidence suggests that selection versus causal mechanisms may operate differently for substance abuse (a causal relation) and internalizing problems (an artifact of selection). The CoT design only controls for the genetic and environmental characteristics of one parent; thus, additional genetically informed analyses are needed.

Genetic and non-iodine-related factors in the aetiology of nodular goitre.

PubMed

Knudsen, Nils; Brix, Thomas Heiberg

2014-08-01

Genetic and a large number of environmental non-iodine-related factors play a role in the cause of nodular goitre. Most evidence for the influence of genetic and environmental factors in the cause of goitre is from cross-sectional, population-based studies. Only a few studies have included prospective data on risk factors for nodular goitre, although few prospective data are available on the effect of iodine and tobacco smoking on goitre development. Goitre is not one single phenotype. Many epidemiological studies do not distinguish diffuse from nodular goitre, as the investigated parameter is often thyroid volume or frequency with increased thyroid volume. Moreover, information on the presence and effect of gene-environment, gene-gene, and environment-environment effect modifications is limited. Thus, firm conclusions about the relative contributions and causality of the investigated risk factors should be made with caution. Smoking seems to be an established risk factor for nodular goitre, possibly with effect modification from iodine intake, as the risk associated with smoking is smaller or absent in areas with sufficient iodine intake. The use of oral contraceptives might have protective effects against goitre, and childbirth is an increased risk factor for goitre in areas with non-optimal iodine intake. Insulin resistance is a recently investigated risk factor, and the risk of goitre may be reversible with metformin treatment. Iodine remains the major environmental risk factor for nodular goitre. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Judgments of cause and blame: the effects of intentionality and foreseeability.

PubMed

Lagnado, David A; Channon, Shelley

2008-09-01

What are the factors that influence everyday attributions of cause and blame? The current studies focus on sequences of events that lead to adverse outcomes, and examine people's cause and blame ratings for key events in these sequences. Experiment 1 manipulated the intentional status of candidate causes and their location in a causal chain. Participants rated intentional actions as more causal, and more blameworthy, than unintentional actions or physical events. There was also an overall effect of location, with later events assigned higher ratings than earlier events. Experiment 2 manipulated both intentionality and foreseeability. The preference for intentional actions was replicated, and there was a strong influence of foreseeability: actions were rated as more causal and more blameworthy when they were highly foreseeable. These findings are interpreted within two prominent theories of blame, [Shaver, K. G. (1985). The attribution of blame: Causality, responsibility, and blameworthiness. New York: Springer-Verlag] and [Alicke, M. D. (2000). Culpable control and the psychology of blame. Psychological Bulletin, 126, 556-574]. Overall, it is argued that the data are more consistent with Alicke's model of culpable control.

Black Women's Achievement Orientation: Motivational and Cognitive Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Saundra Rice; Mednick, Martha Tamara Shuch

1977-01-01

The literature on motivational and cognitive factors related to the achievement orientation of black women is reviewed. Achievement motivation and fear of success are discussed, and the inconclusiveness of the findings for black women is noted. Limited data concerning black women's expectations for and causal attributions about achievement…

Sustainability Reporting Experience by Universities: A Causal Configuration Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zorio-Grima, Ana; Sierra-García, Laura; Garcia-Benau, Maria A.

2018-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to identify the combinations of factors leading to experience in sustainability reporting by Spanish public universities. Design/methodology/approach: Using a sample of 49 public universities in Spain, this paper identifies the combinations of factors on innovation profile, political and internal factors…

The multidimensional causal factors of 'wet litter' in chicken-meat production.

PubMed

Dunlop, Mark W; Moss, Amy F; Groves, Peter J; Wilkinson, Stuart J; Stuetz, Richard M; Selle, Peter H

2016-08-15

The problem of 'wet litter', which occurs primarily in grow-out sheds for meat chickens (broilers), has been recognised for nearly a century. Nevertheless, it is an increasingly important problem in contemporary chicken-meat production as wet litter and associated conditions, especially footpad dermatitis, have developed into tangible welfare issues. This is only compounded by the market demand for chicken paws and compromised bird performance. This review considers the multidimensional causal factors of wet litter. While many causal factors can be listed it is evident that the critical ones could be described as micro-environmental factors and chief amongst them is proper management of drinking systems and adequate shed ventilation. Thus, this review focuses on these environmental factors and pays less attention to issues stemming from health and nutrition. Clearly, there are times when related avian health issues of coccidiosis and necrotic enteritis cannot be overlooked and the development of efficacious vaccines for the latter disease would be advantageous. Presently, the inclusion of phytate-degrading enzymes in meat chicken diets is routine and, therefore, the implication that exogenous phytases may contribute to wet litter is given consideration. Opinion is somewhat divided as how best to counter the problem of wet litter as some see education and extension as being more beneficial than furthering research efforts. However, it may prove instructive to assess the practice of whole grain feeding in relation to litter quality and the incidence of footpad dermatitis. Additional research could investigate the relationships between dietary concentrations of key minerals and the application of exogenous enzymes with litter quality. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of the lactoperoxidase system against three major causal agents of disease in mangoes.

PubMed

Le Nguyen, Doan Duy; Ducamp, Marie-Noelle; Dornier, Manuel; Montet, Didier; Loiseau, Gérard

2005-07-01

The antibacterial activity of the lactoperoxidase system (LPS) on the growth of Xanthomonas campestris, the causal agent of bacterial black spot in mangoes, Botryodiplodia theobromae, the causal agent of stem-end rot disease in mangoes, and Colletotrichum gloeosporioides, the causal agent of anthracnose disease in mangoes, was determined during culture at 30 degrees C and at several pH values (4.5, 5.5, and 6.5). When the results of using the LPS were compared with those from control cultures without the LPS reagents, the growth of the three microorganisms was totally inhibited in all of the conditions tested. Viability tests enumerating cultivable cells of X. campestris showed that the LPS had a bactericidal effect, whatever the pH value. This effect is faster at pH 5.5, corroborating the results reported in the literature (optimal pH for the LPS efficiency). Further, we proved that hydrogen peroxide alone had little inhibition effect on the growth of the microorganisms studied. This compound is essentially used to convert thiocyanate into hypothiocyanate during the lactoperoxidase reaction. The potential of the LPS for the postharvest treatment of the fruits for controlling microbial diseases was thus demonstrated. Nevertheless, further studies are needed on fresh fruits before envisaging any application.

Inferring causes during speech perception.

PubMed

Liu, Linda; Jaeger, T Florian

2018-05-01

One of the central challenges in speech perception is the lack of invariance: talkers differ in how they map words onto the speech signal. Previous work has shown that one mechanism by which listeners overcome this variability is adaptation. However, talkers differ in how they pronounce words for a number of reasons, ranging from more permanent, characteristic factors such as having a foreign accent, to more temporary, incidental factors, such as speaking with a pen in the mouth. One challenge for listeners is that the true cause underlying atypical pronunciations is never directly known, and instead must be inferred from (often causally ambiguous) evidence. In three experiments, we investigate whether these inferences underlie speech perception, and how the speech perception system deals with uncertainty about competing causes for atypical pronunciations. We find that adaptation to atypical pronunciations is affected by whether the atypical pronunciations are seen as characteristic or incidental. Furthermore, we find that listeners are able to maintain information about previous causally ambiguous pronunciations that they experience, and use this previously experienced evidence to drive their adaptation after additional evidence has disambiguated the cause. Our findings revise previous proposals that causally ambiguous evidence is ignored during speech adaptation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Social Modulation of Imitation Fidelity in School-Age Children

PubMed Central

Marsh, Lauren E.; Ropar, Danielle; Hamilton, Antonia F. de C.

2014-01-01

Children copy the actions of others with high fidelity, even when they are not causally relevant. This copying of visibly unnecessary actions is termed overimitation. Many competing theories propose mechanisms for overimitation behaviour. The present study examines these theories by studying the social factors that lead children to overimitate actions. Ninety-four children aged 5- to 8-years each completed five trials of an overimitation task. Each trial provided the opportunity to overimitate an action on familiar objects with minimal causal reasoning demands. Social cues (live or video demonstration) and eye contact from the demonstrator were manipulated. After the imitation, children's ratings of action rationality were collected. Substantial overimitation was seen which increased with age. In older children, overimitation was higher when watching a live demonstrator and when eye contact was absent. Actions rated as irrational were more likely to be imitated than those rated as rational. Children overimitated actions on familiar objects even when they rated those actions as irrational, suggesting that failure of causal reasoning cannot be driving overimitation. Our data support social explanations of overimitation and show that the influence of social factors increases with age over the 5- to 8-year-old age range. PMID:24465913

Users' and GPs' causal attributions of illegal substance use: an exploratory interview study.

PubMed

Wynn, Rolf; Karlsen, Kjetil; Lorntzsen, Bianca; Bjerke, Trond Nergaard; Bergvik, Svein

2009-08-01

There is a need to explore the beliefs regarding the causes of illegal substance use of the people who themselves use the substances (SU) and their GPs. Increased knowledge about such beliefs--often referred to as causal attributions--may improve mutual understanding and communication between SU and GPs. Eight SU and five GPs were interviewed about the causes of illegal substance use. They also talked about how substance use was discussed in consultations. Data were analysed qualitatively. Both the SU and the GPs believed that several factors usually were important in each case of illegal substance use. The SU more often than the GPs emphasised the positive aspects of illegal substance use. We discerned five main causes: biological, social, lack of self-control, positive experiences, and chance. Several of the SU and GPs emphasised that it was difficult to communicate about substance use. The GPs and the SU believed illegal substance use is caused by many factors, including biological, social, and lack of self-control. Communicating about illegal substance use is challenging. GPs should be aware of the clinical importance of causal attributions and should explore beliefs held by SU about the causes of their substance use.

An Analysis on the Unemployment Rate in the Philippines: A Time Series Data Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urrutia, J. D.; Tampis, R. L.; E Atienza, JB

2017-03-01

This study aims to formulate a mathematical model for forecasting and estimating unemployment rate in the Philippines. Also, factors which can predict the unemployment is to be determined among the considered variables namely Labor Force Rate, Population, Inflation Rate, Gross Domestic Product, and Gross National Income. Granger-causal relationship and integration among the dependent and independent variables are also examined using Pairwise Granger-causality test and Johansen Cointegration Test. The data used were acquired from the Philippine Statistics Authority, National Statistics Office, and Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. Following the Box-Jenkins method, the formulated model for forecasting the unemployment rate is SARIMA (6, 1, 5) × (0, 1, 1)4 with a coefficient of determination of 0.79. The actual values are 99 percent identical to the predicted values obtained through the model, and are 72 percent closely relative to the forecasted ones. According to the results of the regression analysis, Labor Force Rate and Population are the significant factors of unemployment rate. Among the independent variables, Population, GDP, and GNI showed to have a granger-causal relationship with unemployment. It is also found that there are at least four cointegrating relations between the dependent and independent variables.

Epidemiología genética sobre las teorías causales y la patogénesis de la diabetes mellitus tipo 2.

PubMed

Castro-Juárez, Carlos Jonnathan; Ramírez-García, Sergio Alberto; Villa-Ruano, Nemesio; García-Cruz, Diana

2017-01-01

Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DM2) is a worldwide public health problem. The etiology of the disease is multifactorial and is characterized by great heterogeneity of metabolic disorders. The most common are the insufficient production of insulin, insulin resistance and impaired incretin system. The specialist must understand the multi-causal nature of DM2 in the post-genomic era. This nature is determined by the additive effect of genes and environment, so there is no simple genetic epidemiological model to explain the inheritance pattern. Hence the need to establish the proportion of disease that is determined by genes and the contribution of environmental factors, the combination of which regulates the threshold or tolerance level for diabetes development. Given this complexity in DM2 in this work are discussed the various existing theories of causality of this disease, which will permit us to understand the interaction between the environment and the human genome, and also to know how risk factors or predisposition to this disease influence, laying the grounds that delimit environment interaction with the genome. Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud.

"It Was My Fault": Bullied Students' Causal and Controllable Attributions in Bullying Blogs.

PubMed

Danielson, Carly M; Emmers-Sommer, Tara M

2016-01-01

Student bullying is a growing and damaging social problem. The devastating outcomes bullied individuals often experience due to such treatment make understanding this phenomenon imperative. Utilizing Heider's (1958) attribution theory, this study explores how bullied students (n = 100) attribute locus of causality and controllability for their victimization in 5 bullying blogs. Findings from this investigation reveal that (a) male and female bloggers' causal and controllable attributions do not differ; (b) bloggers most often attribute blame to bullies, although a noteworthy portion also attribute internal causation; and (c) bloggers often attribute bullying as uncontrollable for several reasons. This study also identifies factors that influence shifts in negative attributions about bullying. These findings inform bullying programs with the hope of reducing destructive attribution formations that potentially lead to prolonged victimization and detrimental consequences.

Using multiple cause-of-death data to investigate associations and causality between conditions listed on the death certificate.

PubMed

Redelings, Matthew D; Wise, Matthew; Sorvillo, Frank

2007-07-01

Death rarely results from only one cause, and it can be caused by a variety of factors. Multiple cause-of-death data files can list as many as 20 contributing causes of death in addition to the reported underlying cause of death. Analysis of multiple cause-of-death data can provide information on associations between causes of death, revealing common combinations of events or conditions which lead to death. Additionally, physicians report the causal train of events through which they believe that different conditions or events may have led to each other and ultimately caused death. In this paper, the authors discuss methods used in studying associations between reported causes of death and in investigating commonly reported causal pathways between events or conditions listed on the death certificate.

Biochemical and molecular mechanisms for the association between obesity, chronic inflammation, and breast cancer.

PubMed

Rose, David P; Vona-Davis, Linda

2014-01-01

Upper body obesity is a risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer and is related to an aggressive tumor phenotype and a poor prognosis regardless of menopausal status. After the menopause, the major mechanism for the association with disease risk is elevated estrogen production by adipose tissue, due to a high level of aromatase activity: these hormone-dependent tumors express both estrogen and progesterone receptors. Other important biological factors of risk include leptin and adiponectin, adipokines with opposing endocrine and paracrine activities, and obesity-related hyperinsulinemia. Chronic inflammation of the breast adipose tissue, which occurs in some obese women and is indicated by the accumulation of macrophages around dead adipocytes ("crown-like structures"), rather than adiposity per se, may prove to be the pathological lesion responsible for both local aromatase induction, and enhanced invasiveness and metastatic capacity through biological mechanisms that involve leptin, tumor necrosis factor-α, and insulin. A causal association between obesity in premenopausal women and breast cell epithelial-mesenchymal transition, perhaps with the participation of the Wnt signaling pathway, and aggressive hormone-independent breast cancer is suggested by a number of experimental and clinical studies. © 2013 International Union of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology.

The use of the comet assay in the study of human nutrition and cancer.

PubMed

Wasson, Gillian R; McKelvey-Martin, Valerie J; Downes, C Stephen

2008-05-01

The influence of diet on carcinogenesis is a hugely complex area; not only is the consumption of major dietary factors such as meat, fat and fruits and vegetables associated with increased or decreased risk of a range of cancers but also an increasing number of specific nutrients such as vitamins, minerals and phytochemicals are being proposed as the next 'superfoods' to combat the development of cancer. As well as epidemiological studies to determine the association of these dietary factors with cancer risk, it is also essential to investigate the underlying mechanisms through which these factors may causally influence carcinogenesis. The comet assay provides a relatively simple, cheap and rapid method to examine DNA damage and repair and is, therefore, an ideal biomarker for the study of the effects of nutrition on cancer. This review focuses on the use of the comet assay in studies involving human subjects or human cell lines, which investigate the effects of various nutrients on biomarkers relevant to carcinogenesis, and discusses the potential of the comet assay and its various modifications for use as cancer-related biomarkers suitable for use in nutritional studies.

Cognitive Developmental Phenomena of Pre-School Children in Relation to Socio-Economic Status, Anthropometric Status, and Home Environmental Status

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jena, Ananta Kumar; Paul, Bhabatosh

2016-01-01

The present study was a causality study that investigate the effects of conditional factors; if x, y & z are the independent factors (e.g. socio-economic status, Anthropometric status, and home environmental status) on the dependent factors (e.g. memory, social skill, language acquisition, logical reasoning, and problem solving). The present…

The Construct Validity of Higher Order Structure-of-Intellect Abilities in a Battery of Tests Emphasizing the Product of Transformations: A Confirmatory Maximum Likelihood Factor Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khattab, Ali-Maher; And Others

1982-01-01

A causal modeling system, using confirmatory maximum likelihood factor analysis with the LISREL IV computer program, evaluated the construct validity underlying the higher order factor structure of a given correlation matrix of 46 structure-of-intellect tests emphasizing the product of transformations. (Author/PN)

Exploring key factors in online shopping with a hybrid model.

PubMed

Chen, Hsiao-Ming; Wu, Chia-Huei; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Yu, Jian; Wang, Jiangtao; Zheng, Yuxiang

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the web increasingly influences retail sales. An in-depth analysis of consumer decision-making in the context of e-business has become an important issue for internet vendors. However, factors affecting e-business are complicated and intertwined. To stimulate online sales, understanding key influential factors and causal relationships among the factors is important. To gain more insights into this issue, this paper introduces a hybrid method, which combines the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) with the analytic network process, called DANP method, to find out the driving factors that influence the online business mostly. By DEMATEL approach the causal graph showed that "online service" dimension has the highest degree of direct impact on other dimensions; thus, the internet vendor is suggested to made strong efforts on service quality throughout the online shopping process. In addition, the study adopted DANP to measure the importance of key factors, among which "transaction security" proves to be the most important criterion. Hence, transaction security should be treated with top priority to boost the online businesses. From our study with DANP approach, the comprehensive information can be visually detected so that the decision makers can spotlight on the root causes to develop effectual actions.

Identifying Causal Risk Factors for Violence among Discharged Patients

PubMed Central

Coid, Jeremy W.; Kallis, Constantinos; Doyle, Mike; Shaw, Jenny; Ullrich, Simone

2015-01-01

Background Structured Professional Judgement (SPJ) is routinely administered in mental health and criminal justice settings but cannot identify violence risk above moderate accuracy. There is no current evidence that violence can be prevented using SPJ. This may be explained by routine application of predictive instead of causal statistical models when standardising SPJ instruments. Methods We carried out a prospective cohort study of 409 male and female patients discharged from medium secure services in England and Wales to the community. Measures were taken at baseline (pre-discharge), 6 and 12 months post-discharge using the Historical, Clinical and Risk-20 items version 3 (HCR-20v3) and Structural Assessment of Protective Factors (SAPROF). Information on violence was obtained via the McArthur community violence instrument and the Police National Computer. Results In a lagged model, HCR-20v3 and SAPROF items were poor predictors of violence. Eight items of the HCR-20v3 and 4 SAPROF items did not predict violent behaviour better than chance. In re-analyses considering temporal proximity of risk/ protective factors (exposure) on violence (outcome), risk was elevated due to violent ideation (OR 6.98, 95% CI 13.85–12.65, P<0.001), instability (OR 5.41, 95% CI 3.44–8.50, P<0.001), and poor coping/ stress (OR 8.35, 95% CI 4.21–16.57, P<0.001). All 3 risk factors were explanatory variables which drove the association with violent outcome. Self-control (OR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08–0.24, P<0.001) conveyed protective effects and explained the association of other protective factors with violence. Conclusions Using two standardised SPJ instruments, predictive (lagged) methods could not identify risk and protective factors which must be targeted in interventions for discharged patients with severe mental illness. Predictive methods should be abandoned if the aim is to progress from risk assessment to effective risk management and replaced by methods which identify factors causally associated with violence. PMID:26554711

[A brief history of the natural causes of human disease].

PubMed

Lips-Castro, Walter

2015-01-01

In the study of the causes of disease that have arisen during the development of humankind, one can distinguish three major perspectives: the natural, the supernatural, and the artificial. In this paper we distinguish the rational natural causes of disease from the irrational natural causes. Within the natural and rational causal approaches of disease, we can highlight the Egyptian theory of putrid intestinal materials called "wechdu", the humoral theory, the atomistic theory, the contagious theory, the cellular theory, the molecular (genetic) theory, and the ecogenetic theory. Regarding the irrational, esoteric, and mystic causal approaches to disease, we highlight the astrological, the alchemical, the iatrochemical, the iatromechanical, and others (irritability, solidism, brownism, and mesmerism).

Detecting the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration in the Jing-Jin-Ji region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ziyue; Cai, Jun; Gao, Bingbo; Xu, Bing; Dai, Shuang; He, Bin; Xie, Xiaoming

2017-01-01

Due to complicated interactions in the atmospheric environment, quantifying the influence of individual meteorological factors on local PM2.5 concentration remains challenging. The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (short for Jing-Jin-Ji) region is infamous for its serious air pollution. To improve regional air quality, characteristics and meteorological driving forces for PM2.5 concentration should be better understood. This research examined seasonal variations of PM2.5 concentration within the Jing-Jin-Ji region and extracted meteorological factors strongly correlated with local PM2.5 concentration. Following this, a convergent cross mapping (CCM) method was employed to quantify the causality influence of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. The results proved that the CCM method was more likely to detect mirage correlations and reveal quantitative influences of individual meteorological factors on PM2.5 concentration. For the Jing-Jin-Ji region, the higher PM2.5 concentration, the stronger influences meteorological factors exert on PM2.5 concentration. Furthermore, this research suggests that individual meteorological factors can influence local PM2.5 concentration indirectly by interacting with other meteorological factors. Due to the significant influence of local meteorology on PM2.5 concentration, more emphasis should be given on employing meteorological means for improving local air quality.

Phenotypic plasticity in Drosophila cactophilic species: the effect of competition, density, and breeding sites.

PubMed

Fanara, Juan Jose; Werenkraut, Victoria

2017-08-01

Changes in the environmental conditions experienced by naturally occurring populations are frequently accompanied by changes in adaptive traits allowing the organism to cope with environmental unpredictability. Phenotypic plasticity is a major aspect of adaptation and it has been involved in population dynamics of interacting species. In this study, phenotypic plasticity (i.e., environmental sensitivity) of morphological adaptive traits were analyzed in the cactophilic species Drosophila buzzatii and Drosophila koepferae (Diptera: Drosophilidae) considering the effect of crowding conditions (low and high density), type of competition (intraspecific and interspecific competition) and cacti hosts (Opuntia and Columnar cacti). All traits (wing length, wing width, thorax length, wing loading and wing aspect) showed significant variation for each environmental factor considered in both Drosophila species. The phenotypic plasticity pattern observed for each trait was different within and between these cactophilic Drosophila species depending on the environmental factor analyzed suggesting that body size-related traits respond almost independently to environmental heterogeneity. The effects of ecological factors analyzed in this study are discussed in order to elucidate the causal factors investigated (type of competition, crowding conditions and alternative host) affecting the election of the breeding site and/or the range of distribution of these cactophilic species. © 2016 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Armillaria root rot

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

First described on grapevines in California in the 1880s, Armillaria root rot occurs in all major grape-growing regions of the state. The causal fungus, Armillaria mellea, infects woody grapevine roots and the base of the trunk (the root collar), resulting in a slow decline and eventual death of the...

LINKING HISTORICAL ORGANOCHLORINE EXPOSURES IN THE GREAT LAKES CAUSALLY TO MAJOR FISH POPULATION CHANGES

EPA Science Inventory

The Great Lakes of North America are large aquatic ecosystems that have been greatly impacted by human activities in the 20th century. Introduction of non-native species, both advertently and inadvertently; reduction in populations through commercial fishing; habitat alternation...

Social Cognitive Perspective of Gender Disparities in Undergraduate Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kelly, Angela M.

2016-01-01

This article synthesizes sociopsychological theories and empirical research to establish a framework for exploring causal pathways and targeted interventions for the low representation of women in post-secondary physics. The rationale for this article is based upon disproportionate representation among undergraduate physics majors in the United…

Genome-wide association study using high-density single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and whole-genome sequences for clinical mastitis traits in dairy cattle.

PubMed

Sahana, G; Guldbrandtsen, B; Thomsen, B; Holm, L-E; Panitz, F; Brøndum, R F; Bendixen, C; Lund, M S

2014-11-01

Mastitis is a mammary disease that frequently affects dairy cattle. Despite considerable research on the development of effective prevention and treatment strategies, mastitis continues to be a significant issue in bovine veterinary medicine. To identify major genes that affect mastitis in dairy cattle, 6 chromosomal regions on Bos taurus autosome (BTA) 6, 13, 16, 19, and 20 were selected from a genome scan for 9 mastitis phenotypes using imputed high-density single nucleotide polymorphism arrays. Association analyses using sequence-level variants for the 6 targeted regions were carried out to map causal variants using whole-genome sequence data from 3 breeds. The quantitative trait loci (QTL) discovery population comprised 4,992 progeny-tested Holstein bulls, and QTL were confirmed in 4,442 Nordic Red and 1,126 Jersey cattle. The targeted regions were imputed to the sequence level. The highest association signal for clinical mastitis was observed on BTA 6 at 88.97 Mb in Holstein cattle and was confirmed in Nordic Red cattle. The peak association region on BTA 6 contained 2 genes: vitamin D-binding protein precursor (GC) and neuropeptide FF receptor 2 (NPFFR2), which, based on known biological functions, are good candidates for affecting mastitis. However, strong linkage disequilibrium in this region prevented conclusive determination of the causal gene. A different QTL on BTA 6 located at 88.32 Mb in Holstein cattle affected mastitis. In addition, QTL on BTA 13 and 19 were confirmed to segregate in Nordic Red cattle and QTL on BTA 16 and 20 were confirmed in Jersey cattle. Although several candidate genes were identified in these targeted regions, it was not possible to identify a gene or polymorphism as the causal factor for any of these regions. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of social network analysis in adolescent cigarette smoking behavior.

PubMed

Seo, Dong-Chul; Huang, Yan

2012-01-01

Social networks are important in adolescent smoking behavior. Previous research indicates that peer context is a major causal factor of adolescent smoking behavior. To date, however, little is known about the influence of peer group structure on adolescent smoking behavior. Studies that examined adolescent social networks with regard to their cigarette smoking behavior were identified through online and manual literature searches. Ten social network analysis studies involving a total of 28,263 adolescents were included in the final review. Of the 10 reviewed studies, 6 identify clique members, liaisons, and isolates as contributing factors to adolescent cigarette smoking. Significantly higher rates of smoking are noted among isolates than clique members or liaisons in terms of peer network structure. Eight of the reviewed studies indicate that peer selection or influence precedes adolescents' smoking behavior and intent to smoke. Such peer selection or influence accounts for a large portion of similarities among smoking adolescents. Adolescents who are identified as isolates are more likely to smoke and engage in risk-taking behaviors than others in the peer network structure. Given that the vast majority of current adult smokers started their smoking habits during adolescence, adolescent smoking prevention efforts will likely benefit from incorporating social network analytic approaches and focusing the efforts on isolates and other vulnerable adolescents from a peer selection and influence perspective. © 2011, American School Health Association.

Robust inference in summary data Mendelian randomization via the zero modal pleiotropy assumption.

PubMed

Hartwig, Fernando Pires; Davey Smith, George; Bowden, Jack

2017-12-01

Mendelian randomization (MR) is being increasingly used to strengthen causal inference in observational studies. Availability of summary data of genetic associations for a variety of phenotypes from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) allows straightforward application of MR using summary data methods, typically in a two-sample design. In addition to the conventional inverse variance weighting (IVW) method, recently developed summary data MR methods, such as the MR-Egger and weighted median approaches, allow a relaxation of the instrumental variable assumptions. Here, a new method - the mode-based estimate (MBE) - is proposed to obtain a single causal effect estimate from multiple genetic instruments. The MBE is consistent when the largest number of similar (identical in infinite samples) individual-instrument causal effect estimates comes from valid instruments, even if the majority of instruments are invalid. We evaluate the performance of the method in simulations designed to mimic the two-sample summary data setting, and demonstrate its use by investigating the causal effect of plasma lipid fractions and urate levels on coronary heart disease risk. The MBE presented less bias and lower type-I error rates than other methods under the null in many situations. Its power to detect a causal effect was smaller compared with the IVW and weighted median methods, but was larger than that of MR-Egger regression, with sample size requirements typically smaller than those available from GWAS consortia. The MBE relaxes the instrumental variable assumptions, and should be used in combination with other approaches in sensitivity analyses. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Testing the continuum of delusional beliefs: an experimental study using virtual reality.

PubMed

Freeman, Daniel; Pugh, Katherine; Vorontsova, Natasha; Antley, Angus; Slater, Mel

2010-02-01

A key problem in studying a hypothesized spectrum of severity of delusional ideation is determining that ideas are unfounded. The first objective was to use virtual reality to validate groups of individuals with low, moderate, and high levels of unfounded persecutory ideation. The second objective was to investigate, drawing upon a cognitive model of persecutory delusions, whether clinical and nonclinical paranoia are associated with similar causal factors. Three groups (low paranoia, high nonclinical paranoia, persecutory delusions) of 30 participants were recruited. Levels of paranoia were tested using virtual reality. The groups were compared on assessments of anxiety, worry, interpersonal sensitivity, depression, anomalous perceptual experiences, reasoning, and history of traumatic events. Virtual reality was found to cause no side effects. Persecutory ideation in virtual reality significantly differed across the groups. For the clear majority of the theoretical factors there were dose-response relationships with levels of paranoia. This is consistent with the idea of a spectrum of paranoia in the general population. Persecutory ideation is clearly present outside of clinical groups and there is consistency across the paranoia spectrum in associations with important theoretical variables.

The Mental Health Outcomes of Drought: A Systematic Review and Causal Process Diagram

PubMed Central

Vins, Holly; Bell, Jesse; Saha, Shubhayu; Hess, Jeremy J.

2015-01-01

Little is understood about the long term, indirect health consequences of drought (a period of abnormally dry weather). In particular, the implications of drought for mental health via pathways such as loss of livelihood, diminished social support, and rupture of place bonds have not been extensively studied, leaving a knowledge gap for practitioners and researchers alike. A systematic review of literature was performed to examine the mental health effects of drought. The systematic review results were synthesized to create a causal process diagram that illustrates the pathways linking drought effects to mental health outcomes. Eighty-two articles using a variety of methods in different contexts were gathered from the systematic review. The pathways in the causal process diagram with greatest support in the literature are those focusing on the economic and migratory effects of drought. The diagram highlights the complexity of the relationships between drought and mental health, including the multiple ways that factors can interact and lead to various outcomes. The systematic review and resulting causal process diagram can be used in both practice and theory, including prevention planning, public health programming, vulnerability and risk assessment, and research question guidance. The use of a causal process diagram provides a much needed avenue for integrating the findings of diverse research to further the understanding of the mental health implications of drought. PMID:26506367

Estimating the causal effects of smoking.

PubMed

Rubin, D B

An important application of statistics in recent years has been to address the causal effects of smoking. There is little doubt that there are health risks associated with smoking. However, more general issues concern the causal effects due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry or due to programmes designed to curtail tobacco use. To address any such causal question, assumptions must be made. Although some of the issues are well known in the statistical and epidemiological literature, there does not appear to be a unified treatment that provides prescriptive guidance on the estimation of these causal effects with explication of the needed assumptions. A 'conduct attributable fraction' is derived, which allows for arbitrary changes in smoking and non-smoking health care expenditure related factors in a counterfactual world without the alleged misconduct, and therefore generalizes the traditional 'smoking attributable fraction'. The formulation presented here, although described for the problem of estimating excess health care expenditures due to the alleged misconduct of the tobacco industry, is more general. It can be applied to any outcome, such as mortality, morbidity, or income from excise taxes, as well as to any situation in which consequences due to alleged misconduct (for example, of two entities, such as the tobacco and the asbestos industries) or due to hypothetical programmes (for example, extra smoking reduction initiatives) are to be estimated. Copyright 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Young Children's Use of Functional Information To Categorize Artifacts: Three Factors That Matter.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nelson, Deborah G. Kemler; Frankenfield, Anne; Morris, Catherine; Blair, Elizabeth

2000-01-01

Three experiments examined factors influencing whether young children consider function, as opposed to appearance or shape, when extending names of novel artifacts. Findings indicated that 4-year-olds extend names based on demonstrated function more often when that function provides a plausible causal account of perceptible object structure, when…

Entrepreneurship Education: How Psychological, Demographic and Behavioural Factors Predict the Entrepreneurial Intention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marques, Carla S.; Ferreira, Joao J.; Gomes, Daniela N.; Rodrigues, Ricardo Gouveia

2012-01-01

Purpose: Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB), the purpose of this paper is to approach entrepreneurial intention (EI) and the factors preceding the founding of EI among secondary students, both studying general academic and specific professional programs, and thereby establish causal relationships between psychological, demographic and…

Maternal Age at Childbirth and Offspring Disruptive Behaviors: Testing the Causal Hypothesis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

D'Onofrio, Brian M.; Goodnight, Jackson A.; Van Hulle, Carol A.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Lahey, Benjamin B.

2009-01-01

Background: Recent studies suggest that the association between maternal age at childbearing (MAC) and children's disruptive behaviors is the result of family factors that are confounded with both variables, rather than a casual effect of environmental factors specifically related to MAC. These studies, however, relied on restricted samples and…

Gene flow in complex landscapes: Testing multiple hypotheses with causal modeling

Treesearch

Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jim Hayden; Michael K. Schwartz

2006-01-01

Predicting population-level effects of landscape change depends on identifying factors that influence population connectivity in complex landscapes. However, most putative movement corridors and barriers have not been based on empirical data. In this study, we identify factors that influence connectivity by comparing patterns of genetic similarity among 146 black bears...