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Sample records for malaria programs estimation

  1. Malaria transmission rates estimated from serological data.

    PubMed Central

    Burattini, M. N.; Massad, E.; Coutinho, F. A.

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model was used to estimate malaria transmission rates based on serological data. The model is minimally stochastic and assumes an age-dependent force of infection for malaria. The transmission rates estimated were applied to a simple compartmental model in order to mimic the malaria transmission. The model has shown a good retrieving capacity for serological and parasite prevalence data. PMID:8270011

  2. MALARIA RESEARCH PROGRAM.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Analytical clinical summaries are presented on the following: Summary and analysis of therapeutic effect of new drugs in human volunteers with...Falciparum Malaria; Summary and analysis of therapeutic effect of new drugs in human volunteers with Vivax Malaria; Potentiation by drug combination...Problems of resistance for both old and new drugs ; Analysis of P. berghei infections; Studies on mechanisms of drug action; Cumulative summary of all new drug trials.

  3. Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund. Methods Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models. Results By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic falciparum malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented. Conclusions These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems. PMID:20433714

  4. [WHO's malaria program Roll Back Malaria].

    PubMed

    Myrvang, B; Godal, T

    2000-05-30

    Malaria is one of the main health problems in the world with 300-500 millions cases yearly and about one million deaths, mainly children in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the 1990s the malaria problem in Africa has increased, although we have methods to control the disease. In 1998 the new secretary general of WHO, Gro Harlem Brundtland, established the Roll Back Malaria programme, with the aim to markedly reduce malaria morbidity and mortality. Governments in malaria-affected countries have to take the lead in Roll Back Malaria. Their health systems must be improved and malaria control integrated into the general health system, and the methods available for prevention and treatment have to be intensified and improved. At the same time, Roll Back Malaria will encourage and promote malaria research which hopefully will result in new medicines, vaccines and other tools which will improve the chances of reducing malaria-related deaths and suffering. Roll Back Malaria is a cabinet project within the WHO, and the organisation has a key role as manager, co-ordinator and monitor of the project. However, it depends for resources on international support and commitment from other UN bodies, the World Bank, governments in the western world, pharmaceutical industry, philanthropists and other sources. At present an optimistic view prevails, and the preliminary aim, to halve the malaria mortality by the year 2010, seems realistic even with the control methods of today. However, if research efforts result in new and better tools to combat the disease, the task will definitely be easier.

  5. Sustaining Gains in Health Programs: Technical Efficiency and its Determinants in Malaria Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Atake, Esso-Hanam

    2017-04-01

    Since the year 2000, Africa has made significant progress in the fight against malaria. Between 2000 and 2015, the incidence and death from malaria fell by 42 and 66%, respectively. However, the African region still accounts for most global cases of malaria. In 2015, the region was home to 89% of malaria cases and 91% of malaria death. This study aimed to evaluate efficiency of policies against malaria in 30 malaria-endemic Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, from the perspective of sustaining gains. The data came from World Malaria Report 2013. Data were analyzed using the double bootstrap method. We first estimated bootstrapped efficiency scores. Then, bootstrapped truncated regression was used to determine factors associated with malaria program efficiency. This study showed that most malaria programs in SSA are technically inefficient. We also found that aid from international institutions and public expenditures on malaria programs do not significantly affect the efficiency of malaria programs. However, in an enhanced governance context, international aid and public expenditure impact positively on the efficiency of malaria programs. Moreover, intermittent preventive treatment for pregnant women is associated with a positive effect on the efficiency. Surprisingly, the free care policies-artemisinin-based combinations for under five-year-old children in the public facilities, rapid diagnostic tests, and distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets and long-lasting insecticide-impregnated nets-does not significantly affect the efficiency of malaria programs. Financing alone does not ensure efficiency of malaria programs. Good governance and the targeting of the most vulnerable segments of the population are necessary to reduce malaria deaths and improve efficiency of malaria programs in SSA.

  6. Malaria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  7. Malaria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  8. Estimating medium- and long-term trends in malaria transmission by using serological markers of malaria exposure.

    PubMed

    Drakeley, C J; Corran, P H; Coleman, P G; Tongren, J E; McDonald, S L R; Carneiro, I; Malima, R; Lusingu, J; Manjurano, A; Nkya, W M M; Lemnge, M M; Cox, J; Reyburn, H; Riley, E M

    2005-04-05

    The implementation and evaluation of malaria control programs would be greatly facilitated by new tools for the rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Because acquisition and maintenance of antimalarial antibodies depend on exposure to malaria infection, such antibodies might be used as proxy measures of transmission intensity. We have compared the prevalence of IgG antibodies with three Plasmodium falciparum asexual stage antigens in individuals of all ages living at varying altitudes encompassing a range of transmission intensities from hyper- to hypoendemic in northeastern Tanzania, with alternative measures of transmission intensity. The prevalence of antibodies to merozoite surface protein-1(19) was significantly more closely correlated with altitude than either point-prevalence malaria parasitemia or single measures of hemoglobin concentration. Analysis of age-specific seroprevalence rates enabled differentiation of recent (seasonal) changes in transmission intensity from longer-term transmission trends and, using a mathematical model of the annual rate of seroconversion, estimation of the longevity of the antibody response. Thus, serological tools allow us to detect variations in malaria transmission over time. Such tools will be invaluable for monitoring trends in malaria endemicity and the effectiveness of malaria control programs.

  9. Estimating Individual Exposure to Malaria Using Local Prevalence of Malaria Infection in the Field

    PubMed Central

    Olotu, Ally; Fegan, Gregory; Wambua, Juliana; Nyangweso, George; Ogada, Edna; Drakeley, Chris; Marsh, Kevin; Bejon, Philip

    2012-01-01

    Background Heterogeneity in malaria exposure complicates survival analyses of vaccine efficacy trials and confounds the association between immune correlates of protection and malaria infection in longitudinal studies. Analysis may be facilitated by taking into account the variability in individual exposure levels, but it is unclear how exposure can be estimated at an individual level. Method and Findings We studied three cohorts (Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya) in Kilifi District, Kenya to assess measures of malaria exposure. Prospective data were available on malaria episodes, geospatial coordinates, proximity to infected and uninfected individuals and residence in predefined malaria hotspots for 2,425 individuals. Antibody levels to the malaria antigens AMA1 and MSP1142 were available for 291 children from Junju. We calculated distance-weighted local prevalence of malaria infection within 1 km radius as a marker of individual's malaria exposure. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression model to assess the discriminatory power of these markers for malaria infection (i.e. asymptomatic parasitaemia or clinical malaria). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to assess the discriminatory power of the models. Local malaria prevalence within 1 km radius and AMA1 and MSP1142 antibodies levels were independently associated with malaria infection. Weighted local malaria prevalence had an area under ROC curve of 0.72 (95%CI: 0.66–0.73), 0.71 (95%CI: 0.69–0.73) and 0.82 (95%CI: 0.80–0.83) among cohorts in Chonyi, Junju and Ngerenya respectively. In a small subset of children from Junju, a model incorporating weighted local malaria prevalence with AMA1 and MSP1142 antibody levels provided an AUC of 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79–0.88). Conclusion We have proposed an approach to estimating the intensity of an individual's malaria exposure in the field. The weighted local malaria prevalence can be used as individual marker of malaria

  10. Risk factors for malaria infection among rubber tappers living in a malaria control program area in southern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Pattanasin, Sarika; Satitvipawee, Pratana; Wongklang, Warunnee; Viwatwongkasem, Chukiat; Bhumiratana, Adisak; Soontornpipit, Pichitpong; Jareinpituk, Sutthi

    2012-11-01

    Rubber tappers work begins at midnight during the feeding time of Anopheles maculatus and An. minimus, two common malaria vectors in southern Thailand. We studied the association between rubber tapper behavior and malaria infections as reported to the Notified Disease Surveillance System during 2010 in Prachuab Khiri Khan Province, Thailand. In that province insecticide treated bednets are distributed free to the population and insecticide residual spraying is performed annually. A random sample of 394 rubber tapper households was interviewed from October 2010 to May 2011. Twenty-six households (6.6%) had at least one family member who contracted malaria during 2010. Poisson regression was used to identify potential characteristics associated with malaria. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to test for simultaneous effects of tapper behavior and household risk for malaria infection. The estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR) for contracting malaria among those owning a farming hut was 2.9 (95% CI 1.1-7.3, p < 0.05) after controlling for other variables. Even in areas where control programs are in place, malaria infection among rubber tappers is common. Given the Thai Government's plan to expand the rubber plantation areas to other regions of the country without specific prevention for this at-risk population, the malaria burden in Thailand may increase.

  11. New treatment policy of malaria as a part of malaria control program in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Kusriastuti, Rita; Surya, Asik

    2012-07-01

    Malaria control program is one of the oldest program in the Ministry of Health (MoH) Republic of Indonesia. Started with effort to eradicate malaria in 1959 through Malaria Eradication Command well known as KOPEM (Komando Pembasmian Malaria) then it evolves to Malaria Control Program, Roll Back Malaria Program, and the current Malaria Elimination Program. In terms of diagnostic and treatment, the policy has formulated by strictly follow evidence-based principles as well as technical guided from World Health Organization (WHO). In 2004, based on numerous researches conducted in Indonesia the use of chloroquine was stopped and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) was then initiated. For severe cases the use of intravenous (iv) Artesunate for cases treated in hospitals and intramuscular (im) Arthemeter for cases treated in the primary care setting were also introduced. ACT, Artesunate iv, and Artemether im, all are provided nationwide through the procurement system. For radical treatment, the recommendation in Indonesia is to add primaquine (PQ) to ACT for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale infections to prevent relapses and for Plasmodium Falciparum infection to kill the gametocytes. These recommendations put hope to reduce malaria mortality to zero and eventually with other interventions will eliminate malaria from the country by 2030. The dissemination of this information is important for the policy to apply in practice across the country.

  12. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    Quartan malaria; Falciparum malaria; Biduoterian fever; Blackwater fever; Tertian malaria; Plasmodium ... Malaria is caused by a parasite that is passed to humans by the bite of infected Anopheles ...

  13. Model stimulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change.

    PubMed

    Jetten, T H; Martens, W J; Takken, W

    1996-05-01

    The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.

  14. Determinants of malaria program expenditures during elimination: case study evidence from select provinces in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jenny X; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J; Escubil, Luz R; Vestergaard, Lasse S; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination.

  15. Determinants of Malaria Program Expenditures during Elimination: Case Study Evidence from Select Provinces in the Philippines

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jenny X.; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J.; Escubil, Luz R.; Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination. PMID:24086279

  16. Effective program management: a cornerstone of malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Gosling, Jonathan; Case, Peter; Tulloch, Jim; Chandramohan, Daniel; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Newby, Gretchen; Gueye, Cara Smith; Koita, Kadiatou; Gosling, Roly

    2015-07-01

    Effective program management is essential for successful elimination of malaria. In this perspective article, evidence surrounding malaria program management is reviewed by management science and malaria experts through a literature search of published and unpublished gray documents and key informant interviews. Program management in a malaria elimination setting differs from that in a malaria control setting in a number of ways, although knowledge and understanding of these distinctions are lacking. Several core features of successful health program management are critical to achieve elimination, including effective leadership and supervision at all levels, sustained political and financial commitment, reliable supply and control of physical resources, effective management of data and information, appropriate incentives, and consistent accountability. Adding to the complexity, the requirements of an elimination program may conflict with those of a control regimen. Thus, an additional challenge is successfully managing program transitions along the continuum from control to elimination to prevention of reintroduction. This article identifies potential solutions to these challenges by exploring managerial approaches that are flexible, relevant, and sustainable in various cultural and health system contexts.

  17. Effective Program Management: A Cornerstone of Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Gosling, Jonathan; Case, Peter; Tulloch, Jim; Chandramohan, Daniel; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Newby, Gretchen; Gueye, Cara Smith; Koita, Kadiatou; Gosling, Roly

    2015-01-01

    Effective program management is essential for successful elimination of malaria. In this perspective article, evidence surrounding malaria program management is reviewed by management science and malaria experts through a literature search of published and unpublished gray documents and key informant interviews. Program management in a malaria elimination setting differs from that in a malaria control setting in a number of ways, although knowledge and understanding of these distinctions are lacking. Several core features of successful health program management are critical to achieve elimination, including effective leadership and supervision at all levels, sustained political and financial commitment, reliable supply and control of physical resources, effective management of data and information, appropriate incentives, and consistent accountability. Adding to the complexity, the requirements of an elimination program may conflict with those of a control regimen. Thus, an additional challenge is successfully managing program transitions along the continuum from control to elimination to prevention of reintroduction. This article identifies potential solutions to these challenges by exploring managerial approaches that are flexible, relevant, and sustainable in various cultural and health system contexts. PMID:26013372

  18. Using Structured Additive Regression Models to Estimate Risk Factors of Malaria: Analysis of 2010 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chirombo, James; Lowe, Rachel; Kazembe, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    Background After years of implementing Roll Back Malaria (RBM) interventions, the changing landscape of malaria in terms of risk factors and spatial pattern has not been fully investigated. This paper uses the 2010 malaria indicator survey data to investigate if known malaria risk factors remain relevant after many years of interventions. Methods We adopted a structured additive logistic regression model that allowed for spatial correlation, to more realistically estimate malaria risk factors. Our model included child and household level covariates, as well as climatic and environmental factors. Continuous variables were modelled by assuming second order random walk priors, while spatial correlation was specified as a Markov random field prior, with fixed effects assigned diffuse priors. Inference was fully Bayesian resulting in an under five malaria risk map for Malawi. Results Malaria risk increased with increasing age of the child. With respect to socio-economic factors, the greater the household wealth, the lower the malaria prevalence. A general decline in malaria risk was observed as altitude increased. Minimum temperatures and average total rainfall in the three months preceding the survey did not show a strong association with disease risk. Conclusions The structured additive regression model offered a flexible extension to standard regression models by enabling simultaneous modelling of possible nonlinear effects of continuous covariates, spatial correlation and heterogeneity, while estimating usual fixed effects of categorical and continuous observed variables. Our results confirmed that malaria epidemiology is a complex interaction of biotic and abiotic factors, both at the individual, household and community level and that risk factors are still relevant many years after extensive implementation of RBM activities. PMID:24991915

  19. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria in northern China and its scenarios in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050.

    PubMed

    Song, Yongze; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jinfeng; Ren, Zhoupeng; Liao, Yilan; Peng, Junhuan

    2016-07-07

    Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R(2) = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R(2) = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity

  20. Comparison of Routine Health Management Information System Versus Enhanced Inpatient Malaria Surveillance for Estimating the Burden of Malaria Among Children Admitted to Four Hospitals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Miles, Melody; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Wanzira, Humphrey; Rubahika, Denis; Nasr, Sussann; Kapella, Bryan K.; Yoon, Steven S.; Chang, Michelle; Yeka, Adoke; Staedke, Sarah G.; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    The primary source of malaria surveillance data in Uganda is the Health Management Information System (HMIS), which does not require laboratory confirmation of reported malaria cases. To improve data quality, an enhanced inpatient malaria surveillance system (EIMSS) was implemented with emphasis on malaria testing of all children admitted in select hospitals. Data were compared between the HMIS and the EIMSS at four hospitals over a period of 12 months. After the implementation of the EIMSS, over 96% of admitted children under 5 years of age underwent laboratory testing for malaria. The HMIS significantly overreported the proportion of children under 5 years of age admitted with malaria (average absolute difference = 19%, range = 8–27% across the four hospitals) compared with the EIMSS. To improve the quality of the HMIS data for malaria surveillance, the National Malaria Control Program should, in addition to increasing malaria testing rates, focus on linking laboratory test results to reported malaria cases. PMID:25422396

  1. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... common?Malaria is a health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries, including portions of Central and ... these countries. If you are traveling to a tropical area or to a country where malaria is ...

  2. Relative risk estimation for malaria disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samat, Nor Azah; Ma'arof, Syafiqah Husna Mohd Imam

    2016-10-01

    Disease mapping is a study on the geographical distribution of a disease to represent the epidemiology data spatially. The production of maps is important to identify areas that deserve closer scrutiny or more attention. In this study, a mosquito-borne disease called Malaria is the focus of our application. Malaria disease is caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. Precautionary steps need to be considered in order to avoid the malaria virus from spreading around the world, especially in the tropical and subtropical countries, which would subsequently increase the number of Malaria cases. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discuss a stochastic model employed to estimate the relative risk of malaria disease in Malaysia. The outcomes of the analysis include a Malaria risk map for all 16 states in Malaysia, revealing the high and low risk areas of Malaria occurrences.

  3. The Role of Malaria Microscopy Training and Refresher Training Courses in Malaria Control Program in Iran during 2001 - 2011.

    PubMed

    Nateghpour, M; Edrissian, Ghh; Raeisi, A; Motevalli-Haghi, A; Farivar, L; Mohseni, Gh; Rahimi-Froushani, A

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is still one of the most important infectious diseases in the world. The disease also is a public health problem in south and southeast of Iran. This study programmed to show the correlation between regular malaria microscopy training and refresher training courses and control of malaria in Iran. Three types of training courses were conducted in this programme including; five - day, ten - day and bimonthly training courses. Each of the training courses contained theoretical and practical sections and training impact was evaluated by practical examination and multiple-choice quizzes through pre and post tests. Distribution pattern of the participants in the training and refresher training courses showed that the most participants were from Sistan & Baluchistan and Hormozgan provinces where malaria is endemic and most cases of the infection come out from these malarious areas. A total of 695 identified individuals were participated in the training courses. A significant conversely correlation was found between conducting malaria microscopy training courses and annual malaria cases in Iran. Conducting a suitable programme for malaria microscopy training and refresher training plays an important role in the control of malaria in endemic areas. Obviously, the decrease of malaria cases in Iran has been achieved due to some activities that malaria diagnosis training was one of them.

  4. Malaria

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    appearance of dark urine after an acute attack of falciparum malaria. Other complications include gastroenteritis in children, pulmonary edema, severe...placental malaria on mothers and neonates from Zaire. Z Parasitenkd 1986;72:57-64. 12. Kean BH, Smith JA. Death due to estivo-autumnal malaria: a

  5. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    Malaria is a serious disease caused by a parasite. You get it when an infected mosquito bites you. Malaria is a major cause of death worldwide, but ... at risk. There are four different types of malaria caused by four related parasites. The most deadly ...

  6. Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Suh, Kathryn N.; Kain, Kevin C.; Keystone, Jay S.

    2004-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic infection of global importance. Although relatively uncommon in developed countries, where the disease occurs mainly in travellers who have returned from endemic regions, it remains one of the most prevalent infections of humans worldwide. In endemic regions, malaria is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality and creates enormous social and economic burdens. Current efforts to control malaria focus on reducing attributable morbidity and mortality. Targeted chemoprophylaxis and use of insecticide-treated bed nets have been successful in some endemic areas. For travellers to malaria-endemic regions, personal protective measures and appropriate chemoprophylaxis can significantly reduce the risk of infection. Prompt evaluation of the febrile traveller, a high degree of suspicion of malaria, rapid and accurate diagnosis, and appropriate antimalarial therapy are essential in order to optimize clinical outcomes of infected patients. Additional approaches to malaria control, including genetic manipulation of mosquitoes and malaria vaccines, are areas of ongoing research. PMID:15159369

  7. Statistical properties of parasite density estimators in malaria.

    PubMed

    Hammami, Imen; Nuel, Grégory; Garcia, André

    2013-01-01

    Malaria is a global health problem responsible for nearly one million deaths every year around 85% of which concern children younger than five years old in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, around 300 million clinical cases are declared every year. The level of infection, expressed as parasite density, is classically defined as the number of asexual parasites relative to a microliter of blood. Microscopy of Giemsa-stained thick blood films is the gold standard for parasite enumeration. Parasite density estimation methods usually involve threshold values; either the number of white blood cells counted or the number of high power fields read. However, the statistical properties of parasite density estimators generated by these methods have largely been overlooked. Here, we studied the statistical properties (mean error, coefficient of variation, false negative rates) of parasite density estimators of commonly used threshold-based counting techniques depending on variable threshold values. We also assessed the influence of the thresholds on the cost-effectiveness of parasite density estimation methods. In addition, we gave more insights on the behavior of measurement errors according to varying threshold values, and on what should be the optimal threshold values that minimize this variability.

  8. Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Snow, Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches. Methods and Findings In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national

  9. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria.

    PubMed

    Shearer, Freya M; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S; Battle, Katherine E; Pigott, David M; Brady, Oliver J; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I; Moyes, Catherine L

    2016-08-01

    Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.

  10. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Freya M.; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J.; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S.; Battle, Katherine E.; Pigott, David M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). Conclusions/Significance We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified. PMID:27494405

  11. Malaria.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Margaret A; Burrows, Jeremy N; Manyando, Christine; van Huijsduijnen, Rob Hooft; Van Voorhis, Wesley C; Wells, Timothy N C

    2017-08-03

    Malaria is caused in humans by five species of single-celled eukaryotic Plasmodium parasites (mainly Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax) that are transmitted by the bite of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes. Malaria remains one of the most serious infectious diseases; it threatens nearly half of the world's population and led to hundreds of thousands of deaths in 2015, predominantly among children in Africa. Malaria is managed through a combination of vector control approaches (such as insecticide spraying and the use of insecticide-treated bed nets) and drugs for both treatment and prevention. The widespread use of artemisinin-based combination therapies has contributed to substantial declines in the number of malaria-related deaths; however, the emergence of drug resistance threatens to reverse this progress. Advances in our understanding of the underlying molecular basis of pathogenesis have fuelled the development of new diagnostics, drugs and insecticides. Several new combination therapies are in clinical development that have efficacy against drug-resistant parasites and the potential to be used in single-dose regimens to improve compliance. This ambitious programme to eliminate malaria also includes new approaches that could yield malaria vaccines or novel vector control strategies. However, despite these achievements, a well-coordinated global effort on multiple fronts is needed if malaria elimination is to be achieved.

  12. Sources of variability of estimates of malaria case counts, active and reserve components, U.S. Armed Forces.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Each January, the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR) estimates numbers of malaria infections among U.S. service members using a surveillance case definition to identify "malaria cases". These cases include individuals with a hospital discharge diagnosis of malaria and those who were reported with malaria through military notifiable event reporting systems. This report compares the MSMR surveillance case definition with other proposed case definitions to demonstrate the degree to which estimates of numbers of malaria cases are dependent upon clinical settings, data sources and case-defining rules used to produce such estimates. For example, including outpatient diagnoses as malaria cases would more than double the 2010 case count. As compared with cases defined using other proposed case definitions, many more MSMR-defined cases had records of a specific Plasmodium species, a laboratory test for malaria and recent travel to a malaria-endemic country. Interpretations of the results of MSMR reports should consider how "cases" are defined.

  13. Rolling Malaria Indicator Surveys (rMIS): a potential district-level malaria monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tool for program managers.

    PubMed

    Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa; Lalloo, David G; Phiri, Kamija; Terlouw, Dianne J

    2012-01-01

    Novel malaria monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools are urgently needed to complement the current "gold standard" Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS). Rapid up scaling of malaria control efforts is resulting in substantial reductions in malaria burden across sub-Saharan Africa. As transmission goes down, timely, accurate, sub-national, and district level burden estimates are needed to guide increasingly targeted control efforts in remaining hotspot areas. To test a novel district level M&E tool, we have conducted a continuous ("rolling") MIS (rMIS) since May 2010 covering 50 villages in Chikhwawa district in southern Malawi, essentially adapting an existing cross-sectional evaluation tool into a continuous monitoring tool. Here, we report on our experience after completing the first full year of monthly data collection focusing on the methods, operational aspects, and estimated costs of rMIS in a programmatic setting. The potential applicability of this promising M&E approach for district-level program managers and control efforts is discussed.

  14. Application of satellite estimates of rainfall distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model developed to assess malaria risk in areas where the disease is water-limited. This model relies on precipitation inputs as its primary forcing. Until now, applications of the model have used ground-based precipitation observations. However, rain gauge networks in the areas most affected by malaria are often sparse. The increasing availability of satellite based rainfall estimates could greatly extend the range of the model. The minimum temporal resolution of precipitation data needed was determined to be one hour. The CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH ) distributed by NOAA fits this criteria, as it provides 30-minute estimates at 8km resolution. CMORPH data were compared to ground observations in four West African villages, and calibrated to reduce overestimation and false alarm biases. The calibrated CMORPH data were used to force HYDREMATS, resulting in outputs for mosquito populations, vectorial capacity and malaria transmission.

  15. Comparison of routine health management information system versus enhanced inpatient malaria surveillance for estimating the burden of malaria among children admitted to four hospitals in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Miles, Melody; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Wanzira, Humphrey; Rubahika, Denis; Nasr, Sussann; Kapella, Bryan K; Yoon, Steven S; Chang, Michelle; Yeka, Adoke; Staedke, Sarah G; Kamya, Moses R; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    The primary source of malaria surveillance data in Uganda is the Health Management Information System (HMIS), which does not require laboratory confirmation of reported malaria cases. To improve data quality, an enhanced inpatient malaria surveillance system (EIMSS) was implemented with emphasis on malaria testing of all children admitted in select hospitals. Data were compared between the HMIS and the EIMSS at four hospitals over a period of 12 months. After the implementation of the EIMSS, over 96% of admitted children under 5 years of age underwent laboratory testing for malaria. The HMIS significantly overreported the proportion of children under 5 years of age admitted with malaria (average absolute difference = 19%, range = 8-27% across the four hospitals) compared with the EIMSS. To improve the quality of the HMIS data for malaria surveillance, the National Malaria Control Program should, in addition to increasing malaria testing rates, focus on linking laboratory test results to reported malaria cases. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  16. Malaria.

    PubMed

    Heck, J E

    1991-03-01

    Human malaria is caused by four species of the genus plasmodium. The sexual stage of the parasite occurs in the mosquito and asexual reproduction occurs in man. Symptoms of fever, chills, headache, and myalgia result from the invasion and rupture of erythrocytes. Merozoites are released from erythrocytes and invade other cells, thus propagating the infection. The most vulnerable hosts are nonimmune travelers, young children living in the tropics, and pregnant women. P. falciparum causes the most severe infections because it infects RBCs of all ages and has the propensity to develop resistance to antimalarials. Rapid diagnosis can be made with a malarial smear, and treatment should be initiated promptly. In some regions (Mexico, Central America except Panama, and North Africa) chloroquine phosphate is effective therapy. In subsaharan Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, chloroquine resistance has become widespread, and other antimalarials are necessary. The primary care physician should have a high index of suspicion for malaria in the traveler returning from the tropics. Malaria should also be suspected in the febrile transfusion recipient and newborns of mothers with malaria.

  17. ARSENIC REMOVAL COST ESTIMATING PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Arsenic Removal Cost Estimating program (Excel) calculates the costs for using adsorptive media and anion exchange treatment systems to remove arsenic from drinking water. The program is an easy-to-use tool to estimate capital and operating costs for three types of arsenic re...

  18. ARSENIC REMOVAL COST ESTIMATING PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Arsenic Removal Cost Estimating program (Excel) calculates the costs for using adsorptive media and anion exchange treatment systems to remove arsenic from drinking water. The program is an easy-to-use tool to estimate capital and operating costs for three types of arsenic re...

  19. Local-scale variation in malaria infection amongst rural Gambian children estimated by satellite remote sensing.

    PubMed

    Thomas, C J; Lindsay, S W

    2000-01-01

    We investigated local-scale variation in malaria transmission and infection in children within a continuous landscape by retrospective spatial analysis of entomological and clinical data collected during 1988 and 1989 in The Gambia, West Africa. Parasite prevalence was negatively correlated with vector abundance and exposure to malaria parasites in 10 villages where entomological surveillance had been carried out. Variation in bednet use did not explain this finding. Mosquito-breeding habitat was retrospectively mapped using 20-m spatial resolution multispectral SPOT satellite imagery from 1988. From these data we estimated by linear regression the risk of exposure to malaria parasites in 26 villages where clinical surveys of children had been made. As exposure increased, so did parasite prevalence; but at higher levels of exposure, parasite prevalence declined. Our findings demonstrate marked differences in exposure to malaria in villages over distances of less than 2 km from mosquito breeding sites and suggest that there are also large differences in immunity between neighbouring settlements.

  20. Annuity-estimating program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jillie, D. W.

    1979-01-01

    Program computes benefits and other relevant factors for Federal Civil Service employees. Computed information includes retirement annuity, survivor annuity for each retirement annuity, highest average annual consecutive 3-year salary, length of service including credit for unused sick leave, amount of deposit and redeposit plus interest.

  1. Application of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)-based vegetation health indices for estimation of malaria cases.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Atiqur; Krakauer, Nir; Roytman, Leonid; Goldberg, Mitch; Kogan, Felix

    2010-06-01

    Satellite data may be used to map climatic conditions conducive to malaria outbreaks, assisting in the targeting of public health interventions to mitigate the worldwide increase in incidence of the mosquito-transmitted disease. This work analyzes correlation between malaria cases and vegetation health (VH) indices derived from satellite remote sensing for each week over a period of 14 years for Bandarban, Bangladesh. Correlation analysis showed that years with a high summer temperature condition index (TCI) tended to be those with high malaria incidence. Principal components regression was performed on patterns of weekly TCI during each of the two annual malaria seasons to construct a model as a function of the TCI. These models reduced the malaria estimation error variance by 57% if first-peak (June-July) TCI was used as the estimator and 74% if second-peak (August-September) was used, compared with an estimation of average number of malaria cases for each year.

  2. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-07

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings.

  3. Estimating mortality, morbidity and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.

    PubMed Central

    Snow, R. W.; Craig, M.; Deichmann, U.; Marsh, K.

    1999-01-01

    The contribution of malaria to morbidity and mortality among people in Africa has been a subject of academic interest, political advocacy, and speculation. National statistics for much of sub-Saharan Africa have proved to be an unreliable source of disease-specific morbidity and mortality data. Credible estimates of disease-specific burdens are required for setting global and national priorities for health in order to rationalize the use of limited resources and lobby for financial support. We have taken an empirical approach to defining the limits of Plasmodium falciparum transmission across the continent and interpolated the distributions of projected populations in 1995. By combining a review of the literature on malaria in Africa and models of acquired functional immunity, we have estimated the age-structured rates of the fatal, morbid and disabling sequelae following exposure to malaria infection under different epidemiological conditions. PMID:10516785

  4. Impact of microscopy error on estimates of protective efficacy in malaria-prevention trials.

    PubMed

    Ohrt, Colin; Purnomo; Sutamihardja, M Awalludin; Tang, Douglas; Kain, Kevin C

    2002-08-15

    Microscopy is an imperfect reference standard used for malaria diagnosis in clinical trials. The purpose of this study was to provide an assessment of the accuracy of basic microscopy, to compare polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based diagnosis with microscopy results, and to assess the effect of microscopy error on apparent protective efficacy. The sensitivity and specificity of basic, compared with expert, microscopy was determined to be 91% and 71%, respectively. In a clinical trial, agreement between PCR and microscopy results improved with expert confirmation of initial results. In a simulated 12-week trial with weekly routine malaria smears, a very high specificity (>99%) for each malaria smear was found to be necessary for an estimate of protective efficacy to be within 10%-25% of the true value, but sensitivity had little effect on this estimate. Microscopy error occurs and can affect clinical trial results.

  5. Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

    PubMed

    Reiner, Robert C; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L

    2015-10-06

    A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine.

  6. Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

    PubMed Central

    Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

    2015-01-01

    A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

  7. Trends in Malaria in Odisha, India—An Analysis of the 2003–2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Pradhan, Madan Mohan; AK, Kavitha; Kar, Priyanka; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Panigrahi, Pinaki; Dutta, Ambarish

    2016-01-01

    Background Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003–2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003–2013 and 2014–2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003–2007) and post-intensification (2009–2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003–2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009–2013 as compared to that in 2003–2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. Conclusion The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped

  8. Trends in Malaria in Odisha, India-An Analysis of the 2003-2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Ashirbad; Anasuya, Anita; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Ak, Kavitha; Kar, Priyanka; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Panigrahi, Pinaki; Dutta, Ambarish

    2016-01-01

    Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003-2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003-2013 and 2014-2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003-2007) and post-intensification (2009-2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003-2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009-2013 as compared to that in 2003-2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped improve its malaria situation in recent years. These

  9. An attempt to estimate the minimal number of Poles infected and treated for malaria in Poland and abroad.

    PubMed

    Kuna, Anna; Szostakowska, Beata; Nahorski, Wacław L; Stępień, Małgorzata; Kowalczyk, Danuta; Stańczak, Joanna; Myjak, Przemysław

    2015-01-01

    Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases in the world. According to official statistics, there are a few dozen cases in Poland annually while the number of Poles treated abroad or self-treating remains unknown. Poland has been declared to be malaria-free since 1963 and nowadays all cases are imported. The aim of the study is to determine the minimal number of malaria cases in Poles at home and abroad in the last decade. The medical records of 4,710 patients tested for malaria in the Department of Tropical Parasitology in the years 2003-2012 were analysed. Two spreadsheets were created, which only included people with a history of malaria diagnosed in the reference centre where indirect immunofluorescent-antibody assay (IFA) for Plasmodium falciparum antigen proved positive. The minimum number of Poles who have had malaria at home and abroad was calculated on the basis of positive IFA results; the rate of all treated malaria patients in Poland in relation to those treated in the reference centre and the actual number of Poles with malaria diagnosed at home was calculated. A group of 376 people with positive serologic tests results in indirect immunofluorescent antibody assay with titre ≥ 1:20 were received, including 227 patients with positive serologic results with titre ≥ 1:80. The rate of the overall number of malaria cases in Poland compared to the number of malaria cases in the University Centre for Maritime and Tropical Medicine Hospital was determined as 3.47:1. It was demonstrated that every year at least 174 to 211 Poles staying abroad may suffer from malaria. This is the first attempt to estimate the minimal number of Poles infected and treated for malaria in Poland and abroad. The estimated number is 8-10 times greater than the number of registered cases in Poland.

  10. Scaling Up Towards International Targets for AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria: Contribution of Global Fund-Supported Programs in 2011–2015

    PubMed Central

    Katz, Itamar; Komatsu, Ryuichi; Low-Beer, Daniel; Atun, Rifat

    2011-01-01

    Objective The paper projects the contribution to 2011–2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries. Design Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011–2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV) treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation. Results Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5–5.8 million people, providing 30%–31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%–63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%–35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusion Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015. PMID:21383839

  11. Program to Eradicate Malaria in Sardinia, 1946–1950

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    During 1946–1950, the Rockefeller Foundation conducted a large-scale experiment in Sardinia to test the feasibility of indigenous vector species eradication. The interruption of malaria transmission did not require vector eradication, but with a goal of developing a new strategy to fight malaria, the choice was made to wage a rapid attack with a powerful new chemical. Costing millions of dollars, 267 metric tons of DDT were spread over the island. Although malaria was eliminated, the main objective, complete eradication of the vector, was not achieved. Despite its being considered almost eradicated in the mid-1940s, malaria 60 years later is still a major public health problem throughout the world, and its eradication is back on the global health agenda. PMID:19788815

  12. Determination of Malaria Epidemiological Status in Iran’s Malarious Areas as Baseline Information for Implementation of Malaria Elimination Program in Iran

    PubMed Central

    RAEISI, Ahmad; GOUYA, Mohammad Mehdi; NADIM, Abolhassan; RANJBAR, Mansour; HASANZEHI, Abdolghafar; FALLAHNEZHAD, Mojtaba; SAKENI, Mohammad; SAFARI, Reza; SAFFARI, Mehdi; MASHYEKHI, Minoo; AHMADI KAHNALI, Assadalah; MIRKHANI, Vahid; ALMASIAN, Elham; Faraji, Leila; PAKTINAT JALALI, Bita; NIKPOUR, Fatemeh

    2013-01-01

    Background According to willingness of the Ministry of Health, Iran and presence of appropriate conditions for disease elimination, national malaria control program decided to conduct a research to clarify malaria status in 2007 and to provide required information to perform the elimination program. This review is comprised of the basis of national malaria elimination program in vision of 2025, which was started in 2010. Methods: In this descriptive study, data were analyzed by applications of different variables at district level. All districts in the three south eastern provinces, in which malaria has local transmission, were considered. Malaria cases has been determined and studied based on the national malaria surveillance system. Results: Since vivax malaria is predominant in Sistan & Baluchestan Province, number of vivax cases is equal to malaria positive cases approximately. The important point is that Nikshahr contains the maximum number of local vivax cases in this province and the maximum number of falciparum cases is reported from Sarbaz district. Among all districts of Hormozgan Province, no case of autochthonous falciparum was detected except in Bandar Jask and one case in Minab. There was no case of autochthonous falciparum in Kerman Province, except in Kahnoj and Ghale Ganj that each of them had one case in 2007. Conclusion: It appears that the report of locally transmitted cases in Iran is increasing over the past few years, before starting malaria elimination plan. Since the Afghan refugees started to return to their own country so the main source of reporting of imported malaria cases reduced and local cases would be demonstrated more clearly. PMID:23641411

  13. Can a single "powerless" mitochondrion in the malaria parasite contribute to parasite programmed cell death in the asexual stages?

    PubMed

    Ch'ng, Jun-Hong; Yeo, Su-Ping; Shyong-Wei Tan, Kevin

    2013-05-01

    The protozoan pathogens responsible for malaria are from the Plasmodium genus, with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax accounting for almost all clinical infections. With recent estimates of mortality exceeding 800,000 annually, malaria continues to take a terrible toll on lives and the early promises of medicine to eradicate the disease have yet to approach realization, in part due to the spread of drug resistant parasites. Recent reports of artemisinin-resistance have prompted renewed efforts to identify novel therapeutic options, and one such pathway being considered for antimalarial exploit is the parasite's programmed cell death (PCD) pathway. In this mini-review, we will discuss the roles of the plasmodium mitochondria in cell death and as a target of antimalarial compounds, taking into account recent data suggesting that PCD pathways involving the mitochondria may be attractive antimalarial targets.

  14. Mefloquine--its 20 years in the Thai Malaria Control Program.

    PubMed

    Wongsrichanalai, Chansuda; Prajakwong, Somsak; Meshnick, Steven R; Shanks, G Dennis; Thimasarn, Krongthong

    2004-06-01

    Due to the deteriorating efficacy of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP or Fansidar), from the mid-1970s the Thai Malaria Control Program was actively involved in testing potential replacement drugs to be used as the primary therapy for falciparum malaria in Thailand. In 1983, a large-scale field trial of mefloquine, a long-acting antimalarial drug known for its efficacy against chloroquine- and SP-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, was initiated on the Thai-Cambodian border. The study enrolled over 60,000 patients and eventually led to the formal establishment of mefloquine as the first line drug for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the country. Mefloquine has played a significant role in the control of malaria in Thailand for the past two decades, initially in combination with SP, then by itself, and currently in selected areas as a partner drug in the combination therapy with artesunate. Thailand is the country with the most experience in the use of this drug in a malaria control program. We present here a review of mefloquine's pharmacology and usage in Thailand.

  15. Gender, mosquitos and malaria: implications for community development programs in Laputta, Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Tin-Oo; Pe-Thet-Htoon; Khin-Thet-Wai; Parks, W; Bryan, J

    2001-09-01

    This paper examines the gender roles linked to division of labor and potential exposure to mosquitos and malaria prevention activities. A "Human Development Initiative" (HDI) Project has been launched in Laputta, a mangrove delta region of Myanmar assisted by United Nations Development Program since 1994. The project aims to improve rural community access to primary health care and provide micro-credit programs, income generation schemes, and educational opportunities as a basis for community empowerment. Women and children of low-income households are the target beneficiaries. Prior to self-care training program and distribution of self-care manuals, altogether 20 focus group discussions (separately assigned to men and women) were conducted in eight study villages between January to February 2000. The primary vector for malaria in study area is Anopheles sundaicus. Rural women were prone to malaria due to exposure to mosquitos within the peak biting period at night because of their gender assigned roles. Both men and women perceived that mosquitos commonly bite before midnight, more at dusk. Lack of awareness of correlation between mosquitos and malaria together with lack of affordability enhance either non-use or shared use of bed-nets at home. Rural women did not consider destruction of breeding places of mosquitos as their major concern. Thus, it is essential for program planners to motivate local women for more active participation in vector control measures within and beyond their households in the context of community development programs.

  16. Light traps fail to estimate reliable malaria mosquito biting rates on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The human biting rate (HBR), an important parameter for assessing malaria transmission and evaluating vector control interventions, is commonly estimated by human landing collections (HLC). Although intense efforts have been made to find alternative non-exposure mosquito collection methods, HLC remains the standard for providing reliable and consistent HBRs. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between human landing and light trap collections (LTC), in an attempt to estimate operationally feasible conversion factors between the two. The study was conducted as part of the operational research component of the Bioko Island Malaria Control Project (BIMCP), Equatorial Guinea. Methods Malaria mosquitoes were collected indoors and outdoors by HLCs and LTCs in three villages on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea during five bimonthly collections in 2009. Indoor light traps were suspended adjacent to occupied long-lasting, insecticide-treated bed nets. Outdoor light traps were placed close to the outer wall under the roof of the collection house. Collected specimens were subjected to DNA extraction and diagnostic PCR to identify species within the Anopheles gambiae complex. Data were analysed by simple regression of log-transformed values and by Bayesian regression analysis. Results There was a poor correlation between the two collection methods. Results varied by location, venue, month, house, but also by the statistical method used. The more robust Bayesian analyses indicated non-linear relationships and relative sampling efficiencies being density dependent for the indoor collections, implying that straight-forward and simple conversion factors could not be calculated for any of the locations. Outdoor LTC:HLC relationships were weak, but could be estimated at 0.10 and 0.07 for each of two locations. Conclusions Light trap collections in combination with bed nets are not recommended as a reliable method to assess human biting rates on Bioko Island

  17. Moving malaria in pregnancy programs from neglect to priority: experience from Malawi, Senegal, and Zambia.

    PubMed

    Roman, Elaine; Wallon, Michelle; Brieger, William; Dickerson, Aimee; Rawlins, Barbara; Agarwal, Koki

    2014-02-01

    Pregnant women and infants are particularly vulnerable to malaria. National malaria in pregnancy (MIP) programs in Malawi, Senegal, and Zambia were reviewed to identify promising strategies that have helped these countries achieve relatively high coverage of MIP interventions as well as ongoing challenges that have inhibited further progress. We used a systematic case study methodology to assess health system strengths and challenges in the 3 countries, including desk reviews of available reports and literature and key informant interviews with national stakeholders. Data were collected between 2009 and 2011 and analyzed across 8 MIP health systems components: (1) integration of programs and services, (2) policy, (3) commodities, (4) quality assurance, (5) capacity building, (6) community involvement, (7) monitoring and evaluation, and (8) financing. Within each program area, we ranked degree of scale up across 4 stages and synthesized the findings in a MIP table of analysis to reveal common themes related to better practices, remaining bottlenecks, and opportunities to accelerate MIP coverage, strengthen MIP programs, and improve results. Each of the 3 countries has malaria policies in place that reflect current MIP guidance from the World Health Organization. The 3 countries successfully integrated MIP interventions into a platform of antenatal care services, but coordination at the national level was disjointed. All 3 countries recognized the importance of having a MIP focal person to ensure collaboration and planning at the national level, but only Malawi had appointed one. Commodity stockouts were frequent due to problems at all levels of the logistics system, from quantification to distribution. Lack of support for quality assurance and weak monitoring and evaluation mechanisms across all 3 countries affected optimal coverage. MIP programs should address all 8 interconnected MIP health systems areas holistically, in the context of a health systems approach to

  18. [Evaluation of the Malaria Evaluation Program in the national laboratory network in Colombia].

    PubMed

    García, Marisol; Mendoza, Nohora

    2002-06-01

    In 1995, the Parasitology Group--National Reference Laboratory--at the Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) started a national malaria diagnosis program with the Public Health Laboratory Network which included training, indirect quality control, external quality control, technical assistance, advisory, reference and counter-reference, together with an annual review of the program. The purpose of this study was to carry out a three year (1997-1999) analysis of the program. In the indirect quality control program, average positive and negative concordances of 98% and 97%, respectively, and a kappa index of 0.95 were obtained by the state public health laboratories. In the external quality control program, an average concordance of 74.2% was obtained with an 89.2% participation of the registered laboratories. At the municipal level, the indirect quality control had an average concordance of 91.4% in positivity, 92.5% concordance in negativity, and a kappa index of 0.84. On the other hand, indirect quality control has been scarcely implemented by the state public health laboratories in the municipalities under their jurisdiction. In general, the program shows a good performance, despite some economic and conflict-related difficulties in the country, because people responsible at all levels for the Malaria Program have permanently carried out all other activities of the network, either according to annual programming or upon request. However, it is important to improve its coverage and the participation in its activities.

  19. Imported Malaria in Portugal 2000–2009: A Role for Hospital Statistics for Better Estimates and Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Dias, Sara S.; Baptista, João Luis; Torgal, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    Background. Although eradicated in Portugal, malaria keeps taking its toll on travelers and migrants from endemic countries. Disease notification is mandatory but is compromised by underreporting. Methods. A retrospective study on malaria hospitalizations for 10 consecutive years (2000–2009) was conducted. Data on hospitalizations and notifications were obtained from Central Administration of Health System and Health Protection Agency, respectively. For data selection ICD-9 CM and ICD-10 were used: codes 084*, 647.4, and B50–B54. Variables were gender, age, agent and origin of infection, length of stay (LOS), lethality, and comorbidities. Analysis included description, hypothesis testing, and regression. Results. There were 2003 malaria hospitalizations and 480 notified hospitalized cases, mainly in young male adults. P. falciparum was the main agent of infection acquired mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Lethality was 1.95% and mean LOS was 8.09 days. Older age entailed longer LOS and increased lethality. Discussion. From 2000 to 2009, there were 2003 malaria hospitalizations with decreasing annual incidence, these numbers being remarkably higher than those notified. The national database of diagnosis related groups, reflecting hospitalizations on NHS hospitals, may be an unexplored complementary source for better estimates on imported malaria. PMID:25548715

  20. Malaria Parasite Density Estimation using Actual and Assumed White Blood Cells Count in Children in Eastern Sudan.

    PubMed

    Bilal, Jalal A; Gasim, Gasim I; Karsani, Amani H; Elbashir, Leana M; Adam, Ishag

    2016-04-01

    Estimating malaria parasite count is needed for estimating the severity of the disease and during the follow-up. This study was conducted to determine the malaria parasite density among children using actual white blood cell (WBC) and the assumed WBC counts (8.0 × 10(9)/l). A cross-sectional study was conducted at New Halfa Hospital, Sudan. WBC count and count of asexual malaria parasite were performed on blood films. One hundred and three children were enrolled. The mean (SD) WBCs was 6.2 (2.9) cells × 10(9)/l. The geometric mean (SD) of the parasite count using the assumed WBCs (8.0 × 10(9)/l cells/μl) was significantly higher than that estimated using the actual WBC count [7345.76 (31,038.56) vs. 5965 (28,061.57) rings/μl,p = 0.042]. Malaria parasitemia based on assumed (8.0 × 10(9)/) WBCs is higher than parasitemia based on actual WBCs. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Estimating the Burden of Malaria in Senegal: Bayesian Zero-Inflated Binomial Geostatistical Modeling of the MIS 2008 Data

    PubMed Central

    Giardina, Federica; Gosoniu, Laura; Konate, Lassana; Diouf, Mame Birame; Perry, Robert; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Ousmane; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2012-01-01

    The Research Center for Human Development in Dakar (CRDH) with the technical assistance of ICF Macro and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) conducted in 2008/2009 the Senegal Malaria Indicator Survey (SMIS), the first nationally representative household survey collecting parasitological data and malaria-related indicators. In this paper, we present spatially explicit parasitaemia risk estimates and number of infected children below 5 years. Geostatistical Zero-Inflated Binomial models (ZIB) were developed to take into account the large number of zero-prevalence survey locations (70%) in the data. Bayesian variable selection methods were incorporated within a geostatistical framework in order to choose the best set of environmental and climatic covariates associated with the parasitaemia risk. Model validation confirmed that the ZIB model had a better predictive ability than the standard Binomial analogue. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used for inference. Several insecticide treated nets (ITN) coverage indicators were calculated to assess the effectiveness of interventions. After adjusting for climatic and socio-economic factors, the presence of at least one ITN per every two household members and living in urban areas reduced the odds of parasitaemia by 86% and 81% respectively. Posterior estimates of the ORs related to the wealth index show a decreasing trend with the quintiles. Infection odds appear to be increasing with age. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from 0.12% in Thillé-Boubacar to 13.1% in Dabo. Tambacounda has the highest population-adjusted predicted prevalence (8.08%) whereas the region with the highest estimated number of infected children under the age of 5 years is Kolda (13940). The contemporary map and estimates of malaria burden identify the priority areas for future control interventions and provide baseline information for monitoring and evaluation. Zero-Inflated formulations are more appropriate in

  2. A more appropriate white blood cell count for estimating malaria parasite density in Plasmodium vivax patients in northeastern Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Liu, Huaie; Feng, Guohua; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xiaomei; Bai, Yao; Deng, Shuang; Ruan, Yonghua; Morris, James; Li, Siman; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang

    2016-04-01

    The conventional method of estimating parasite densities employ an assumption of 8000 white blood cells (WBCs)/μl. However, due to leucopenia in malaria patients, this number appears to overestimate parasite densities. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of parasite density estimated using this assumed WBC count in eastern Myanmar, where Plasmodium vivax has become increasingly prevalent. From 256 patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, we estimated parasite density and counted WBCs by using an automated blood cell counter. It was found that WBC counts were not significantly different between patients of different gender, axillary temperature, and body mass index levels, whereas they were significantly different between age groups of patients and the time points of measurement. The median parasite densities calculated with the actual WBC counts (1903/μl) and the assumed WBC count of 8000/μl (2570/μl) were significantly different. We demonstrated that using the assumed WBC count of 8000 cells/μl to estimate parasite densities of P. vivax malaria patients in this area would lead to an overestimation. For P. vivax patients aged five years and older, an assumed WBC count of 5500/μl best estimated parasite densities. This study provides more realistic assumed WBC counts for estimating parasite densities in P. vivax patients from low-endemicity areas of Southeast Asia.

  3. ATR Performance Estimation Seed Program

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-28

    for this collec ion of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data ...sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collec ion of information. Send comments regarding this burden...to produce simulated MCM sonar data and demonstrate the impact of system, environmental, and target scattering effects on ATR detection

  4. Eradicating malaria.

    PubMed

    Breman, Joel G

    2009-01-01

    The renewed interest in malaria research and control is based on the intolerable toll this disease takes on young children and pregnant women in Africa and other vulnerable populations; 150 to 300 children die each hour from malaria amounting to 1 to 2 million deaths yearly. Malaria-induced neurologic impairment, anemia, hypoglycemia, and low birth weight imperil normal development and survival. Resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to drugs and Anopheles mosquitoes to insecticides has stimulated discovery and development of artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) and other drugs, long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets (with synthetic pyrethroids) and a search for non-toxic, long-lasting, affordable insecticides for indoor residual spraying (IRS). Malaria vaccine development and testing are progressing rapidly and a recombinant protein (RTS,S/AS02A) directed against the circumsporozoite protein is soon to be in Phase 3 trials. Support for malaria control, research, and advocacy through the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO and other organizations is resulting in decreasing morbidity and mortality in many malarious countries. Sustainability of effective programs through training and institution strengthening will be the key to malaria elimination coupled with improved surveillance and targeted research.

  5. Near infrared spectroscopy for estimating the age of malaria transmiting mosquitoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milali, Masabho Peter

    We explore the use of near infrared spectrometry to classifying the age of a wild malaria transmitting mosquito. In Chapter Two, using a different set of lab-reared mosquitoes, we replicate the Mayagaya et al. study of the accuracy of near-infrared spectrometry (NIRS) to estimate the age of lab-reared mosquitoes, reproducing the published accuracy. Our results strengthen the Mayagaya et. al study and increase confidence in using NIRS to estimate age classes of mosquitoes. In the field, we wish to classify the ages of wild, not lab-reared mosquitoes, but the necessary training data from wild mosquitoes is difficult to find. Applying a model trained on spectra from lab-reared mosquitoes to estimate the age of wild mosquitoes is appropriate only if spectra collected from lab-reared mosquitoes are equivalent to those collected from wild mosquitoes. In Chapter Three, we apply k-means cluster analysis to a mixture of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes to determine if there is significant difference between these spectra. We find no significant difference (P = 0.245) in distributions between the wild and lab-reared mosquitoes in the two formed clusters. The two formed clusters have average silhouette coefficient values (cluster quality measure) of 0.51 and 0.77, respectively, which shows that the clusters were reasonable and strong, respectively. Basing on results from Chapter Three, we estimate the age class of wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes using a classification model trained on lab-reared Anopheles arabiensis. We validate the accuracy of the model by comparing its estimates with ovary dissection estimates. While our model estimated 86% and 14% of wild Anopheles arabiensis to be < 7 and ≥ 7 days old, respectively, ovary dissection estimated 72% as young and 28% as old. Studies show that wild mosquito populations generally consist of more young than old mosquitoes. Therefore, our model estimates age of wild mosquitoes in

  6. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  7. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  8. The role of research in viral disease eradication and elimination programs: lessons for malaria eradication.

    PubMed

    Breman, Joel G; de Quadros, Ciro A; Dowdle, Walter R; Foege, William H; Henderson, Donald A; John, T Jacob; Levine, Myron M

    2011-01-25

    By examining the role research has played in eradication or regional elimination initiatives for three viral diseases--smallpox, poliomyelitis, and measles--we derive nine cross-cutting lessons applicable to malaria eradication. In these initiatives, some types of research commenced as the programs began and proceeded in parallel. Basic laboratory, clinical, and field research all contributed notably to progress made in the viral programs. For each program, vaccine was the lynchpin intervention, but as the programs progressed, research was required to improve vaccine formulations, delivery methods, and immunization schedules. Surveillance was fundamental to all three programs, whilst polio eradication also required improved diagnostic methods to identify asymptomatic infections. Molecular characterization of pathogen isolates strengthened surveillance and allowed insights into the geographic source of infections and their spread. Anthropologic, sociologic, and behavioural research were needed to address cultural and religious beliefs to expand community acceptance. The last phases of elimination and eradication became increasingly difficult, as a nil incidence was approached. Any eradication initiative for malaria must incorporate flexible research agendas that can adapt to changing epidemiologic contingencies and allow planning for posteradication scenarios.

  9. Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-03-31

    The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

  10. Malaria (For Parents)

    MedlinePlus

    ... period for malaria is the time between the mosquito bite and the release of parasites from the ... Health authorities try to prevent malaria by using mosquito-control programs aimed at killing mosquitoes that carry ...

  11. Review of DoD Malaria Research Programs,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-05-01

    pGEMEX were subjected to preparative SDS-PAGE, transferred to nitrocellulose paper, and stained with 0.01% amido black. Bands corresponding to the...Commander. COL George Lewis said the Pentagon is concerned about a lack of prioritization in the programs. U CDR Richard Oberst stressed the need for...Sadoff also stressed the need for open and immediate sharing of information between the Army or Navy. Recommendations from Advisors I All three

  12. Household malaria knowledge and its association with bednet ownership in settings without large-scale distribution programs: Evidence from rural Madagascar.

    PubMed

    Krezanoski, Paul J; Tsai, Alexander C; Hamer, Davidson H; Comfort, Alison B; Bangsberg, David R

    2014-06-01

    Insecticide-treated bednets are effective at preventing malaria. This study focuses on household-level factors that are associated with bednet ownership in a rural area of Madagascar which had not been a recipient of large-scale ITN distribution. Data were gathered on individual and household characteristics, malaria knowledge, household assets and bednet ownership. Principal components analysis was used to construct both a wealth index based on household assets and a malaria knowledge index based on responses to questions about malaria. Bivariate and multivariate regressions were used to determine predictors of household bednet ownership and malaria knowledge. Forty-seven of 560 households (8.4%) owned a bednet. In multivariate analysis, higher level of malaria knowledge among household members was the only variable significantly associated with bednet ownership (odds ratio 3.72, P < 0.001). Among respondents, predictors of higher malaria knowledge included higher education levels, female sex and reporting fever as the most frequent or dangerous illness in the community. Household wealth was not a significant predictor of bednet ownership or respondent malaria knowledge. In this setting of limited supply of affordable bednets, malaria knowledge was associated with an increased probability of household bednet ownership. Further studies should determine how such malaria knowledge evolves and if malaria-specific education programs could help overcome the barriers to bednet ownership among at-risk households living outside the reach of large-scale bednet distribution programs.

  13. Immunophoretic rapid diagnostic tests as a source of immunoglobulins for estimating malaria sero-prevalence and transmission intensity.

    PubMed

    Williams, Geoffrey S; Mweya, Clement; Stewart, Laveta; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Cook, Jackie; Corran, Patrick H; Riley, Eleanor M; Drakeley, Chris J

    2009-07-22

    Sero-epidemiological methods are being developed as a tool for rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Simple blood collection methods for use in field settings will make this more feasible. This paper describes validation of such a method, by analysing immunoglobulins from blood retained within immunophoretic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum. RDTs are now widely used for the diagnosis of malaria and estimation of parasite rates, and this method represents a further use for these devices in malaria control. Immunoglobulins eluted from RDTs, designed to detect parasite histidine rich protein-2 (HRP-2), were analysed by indirect ELISA for IgG recognizing the P. falciparum blood stage antigens merozoite surface protein-1(19) (MSP-1(19)) and apical membrane antigen-1 (AMA-1). Optimal storage conditions for RDTs were evaluated by comparing antibody responses from RDTs stored in dry or humid conditions at 4 degrees C or at ambient temperature (with or without air-conditioning) for 7, 31 or 70 days. Antibody levels estimated using 3,700 RDT samples from attendees at health facilities in North-eastern Tanzania were compared with contemporaneously collected filter paper blood spots (FPBS) and used to estimate seroconversion rates. Storage of RDTs at 4 degrees C was optimal for immunoglobulin recovery but short-term storage at ambient temperatures did not substantially affect anti-malarial IgG levels. Results from RDTs were comparable with those from FPBSs, for both antigens. RDT-generated titres tended to be slightly higher than those generated from FPBSs, possibly due to greater recovery of immunoglobulins from RDTs compared to filter paper. Importantly, however, RDT-based seroconversion rates, and hence serological estimates of malaria transmission intensity, agreed closely with those from FPBSs. RDTs represent a practical option for collecting blood for sero-epidemiological surveys, with potential cost and logistical advantages over

  14. Immunophoretic rapid diagnostic tests as a source of immunoglobulins for estimating malaria sero-prevalence and transmission intensity

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Geoffrey S; Mweya, Clement; Stewart, Laveta; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Cook, Jackie; Corran, Patrick H; Riley, Eleanor M; Drakeley, Chris J

    2009-01-01

    Background Sero-epidemiological methods are being developed as a tool for rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Simple blood collection methods for use in field settings will make this more feasible. This paper describes validation of such a method, by analysing immunoglobulins from blood retained within immunophoretic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum. RDTs are now widely used for the diagnosis of malaria and estimation of parasite rates, and this method represents a further use for these devices in malaria control. Methods Immunoglobulins eluted from RDTs, designed to detect parasite histidine rich protein-2 (HRP-2), were analysed by indirect ELISA for IgG recognizing the P. falciparum blood stage antigens merozoite surface protein-119 (MSP-119) and apical membrane antigen-1 (AMA-1). Optimal storage conditions for RDTs were evaluated by comparing antibody responses from RDTs stored in dry or humid conditions at 4°C or at ambient temperature (with or without air-conditioning) for 7, 31 or 70 days. Antibody levels estimated using 3,700 RDT samples from attendees at health facilities in North-eastern Tanzania were compared with contemporaneously collected filter paper blood spots (FPBS) and used to estimate seroconversion rates. Results Storage of RDTs at 4°C was optimal for immunoglobulin recovery but short-term storage at ambient temperatures did not substantially affect anti-malarial IgG levels. Results from RDTs were comparable with those from FPBSs, for both antigens. RDT-generated titres tended to be slightly higher than those generated from FPBSs, possibly due to greater recovery of immunoglobulins from RDTs compared to filter paper. Importantly, however, RDT-based seroconversion rates, and hence serological estimates of malaria transmission intensity, agreed closely with those from FPBSs. Conclusion RDTs represent a practical option for collecting blood for sero-epidemiological surveys, with potential cost and logistical

  15. Microbial Larvicide Application by a Large-Scale, Community-Based Program Reduces Malaria Infection Prevalence in Urban Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Geissbühler, Yvonne; Kannady, Khadija; Chaki, Prosper Pius; Emidi, Basiliana; Govella, Nicodem James; Mayagaya, Valeliana; Mtasiwa, Deo; Mshinda, Hassan; Lindsay, Steven William; Tanner, Marcel; Fillinger, Ulrike; de Castro, Marcia Caldas; Killeen, Gerry Francis

    2009-01-01

    Background Malaria control in Africa is most tractable in urban settlements yet most research has focused on rural settings. Elimination of malaria transmission from urban areas may require larval control strategies that complement adult mosquito control using insecticide-treated nets or houses, particularly where vectors feed outdoors. Methods and Findings Microbial larvicide (Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti)) was applied weekly through programmatic, non-randomized community-based, but vertically managed, delivery systems in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Continuous, randomized cluster sampling of malaria infection prevalence and non-random programmatic surveillance of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) respectively constituted the primary and secondary outcomes surveyed within a population of approximately 612,000 residents in 15 fully urban wards covering 55 km2. Bti application for one year in 3 of those wards (17 km2 with 128,000 residents) reduced crude annual transmission estimates (Relative EIR [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.683 [0.491–0.952], P = 0.024) but program effectiveness peaked between July and September (Relative EIR [CI] = 0.354 [0.193 to 0.650], P = 0.001) when 45% (9/20) of directly observed transmission events occurred. Larviciding reduced malaria infection risk among children ≤5 years of age (OR [CI] = 0.284 [0.101 to 0.801], P = 0.017) and provided protection at least as good as personal use of an insecticide treated net (OR [CI] = 0.764 [0.614–0.951], P = 0.016). Conclusions In this context, larviciding reduced malaria prevalence and complemented existing protection provided by insecticide-treated nets. Larviciding may represent a useful option for integrated vector management in Africa, particularly in its rapidly growing urban centres. PMID:19333402

  16. Malaria parasite density estimated with white blood cells count reference value agrees with density estimated with absolute in children less than 5 years in central ghana.

    PubMed

    Adu-Gyasi, Dennis; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Newton, Sam; Amoako, Sabastina; Dosoo, David; Ankrah, Love; Adjei, George; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Owusu-Agyei, Seth

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The estimation of malaria parasite density using a microscope heavily relies on White Blood Cells (WBCs) counts. An assumed WBCs count of 8000/µL has been accepted as reasonably accurate in estimating malaria parasite densities due to the challenge to accurately determine WBCs count. Method. The study used 4944 pieces of laboratory data of consented participants of age group less than 5 years. The study compared parasite densities of absolute WBCs, assumed WBCs, and the WBCs reference values in Central Ghana. Ethical approvals were given by three ethics committees. Results. The mean (±SD) WBCs and geometric mean parasite density (GMPD) were 10500/µL (±4.1) and 10644/µL (95% CI 9986/µL to 11346/µL), respectively. The difference in the GMPD compared using absolute WBCs and densities of assumed WBCs was significantly lower. The difference in GMPD obtained with an assumed WBCs count and that of the WBCs reference values for the study area, 10400/µL and 9200/µL for children in different age groups, were not significant. Discussion. Significant errors could result when assumed WBCs count is used to estimate malaria parasite density in children. GMPD generated with WBCs reference values statistically agreed with density from the absolute WBCs. When obtaining absolute WBC is not possible, the reference value can be used to estimate parasite density.

  17. Malaria Parasite Density Estimated with White Blood Cells Count Reference Value Agrees with Density Estimated with Absolute in Children Less Than 5 Years in Central Ghana

    PubMed Central

    Adu-Gyasi, Dennis; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Newton, Sam; Amoako, Sabastina; Dosoo, David; Ankrah, Love; Adjei, George; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Owusu-Agyei, Seth

    2015-01-01

    Introduction. The estimation of malaria parasite density using a microscope heavily relies on White Blood Cells (WBCs) counts. An assumed WBCs count of 8000/µL has been accepted as reasonably accurate in estimating malaria parasite densities due to the challenge to accurately determine WBCs count. Method. The study used 4944 pieces of laboratory data of consented participants of age group less than 5 years. The study compared parasite densities of absolute WBCs, assumed WBCs, and the WBCs reference values in Central Ghana. Ethical approvals were given by three ethics committees. Results. The mean (±SD) WBCs and geometric mean parasite density (GMPD) were 10500/µL (±4.1) and 10644/µL (95% CI 9986/µL to 11346/µL), respectively. The difference in the GMPD compared using absolute WBCs and densities of assumed WBCs was significantly lower. The difference in GMPD obtained with an assumed WBCs count and that of the WBCs reference values for the study area, 10400/µL and 9200/µL for children in different age groups, were not significant. Discussion. Significant errors could result when assumed WBCs count is used to estimate malaria parasite density in children. GMPD generated with WBCs reference values statistically agreed with density from the absolute WBCs. When obtaining absolute WBC is not possible, the reference value can be used to estimate parasite density. PMID:25945279

  18. Soft targets or partners in health? Retail pharmacies and their role in Tanzania's malaria control program.

    PubMed

    Kamat, Vinay R; Nyato, Daniel J

    2010-08-01

    The retail sector has been at the center of recent policy debates concerning its role in malaria control programs in Africa. This article closely examines the perspectives of owners and managers of retail pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, toward the dominant public health discourse and practices surrounding the deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) as a way forward in malaria control. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between May-August 2007, and July-August 2009, involving in-depth interviews and participant observation in pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, the article describes the social realities facing people who manage retail pharmacies, the nature of their interactions with customers, the kinds of antimalarials they sell, and their perspective on how the new malaria treatment guidelines have affected their business. Findings suggest that for most pharmacy owners and managers, it is 'business as usual' concerning the sale of conventional antimalarials, with a majority reporting that the introduction of ACT in public health facilities had not negatively affected their business. Implications of the research findings are examined in the context of proposed interventions to make pharmacy owners and managers more socially responsible and adhere to government health regulations. The article makes a case for actively involving pharmacy owners and managers in decision making processes surrounding the implementation of new treatment guidelines, and training programs that have an impact on their business, social responsibility, and community health. In considering regulatory interventions, health planners must explicitly address the concern that retail pharmacies fill an important role in the country's health care system, and that the complex nexus that drives the global pharmaceutical market often governs their operations at the local level.

  19. G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2012-01-01

    Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

  20. Estimating the malaria risk of African mosquito movement by air travel

    PubMed Central

    Tatem, Andrew J; Rogers, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2006-01-01

    Background The expansion of global travel has resulted in the importation of African Anopheles mosquitoes, giving rise to cases of local malaria transmission. Here, cases of 'airport malaria' are used to quantify, using a combination of global climate and air traffic volume, where and when are the greatest risks of a Plasmodium falciparum-carrying mosquito being importated by air. This prioritises areas at risk of further airport malaria and possible importation or reemergence of the disease. Methods Monthly data on climate at the World's major airports were combined with air traffic information and African malaria seasonality maps to identify, month-by-month, those existing and future air routes at greatest risk of African malaria-carrying mosquito importation and temporary establishment. Results The location and timing of recorded airport malaria cases proved predictable using a combination of climate and air traffic data. Extending the analysis beyond the current air network architecture enabled identification of the airports and months with greatest climatic similarity to P. falciparum endemic regions of Africa within their principal transmission seasons, and therefore at risk should new aviation routes become operational. Conclusion With the growth of long haul air travel from Africa, the identification of the seasonality and routes of mosquito importation is important in guiding effective aircraft disinsection and vector control. The recent and continued addition of air routes from Africa to more climatically similar regions than Europe will increase movement risks. The approach outlined here is capable of identifying when and where these risks are greatest. PMID:16842613

  1. BASIC program for power spectrum estimation. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Church, E.L.; Takacs, P.Z.

    1994-05-01

    A standard data set is presented to be used in testing routines that are developed for evaluating the one-dimensional periodogram spectral estimate of a series of uniformly spaced data points representing measurements of a surface profile. These data were generated using the GWBASIC program ``FFTPSD`` which is included in the Appendix of this report. The original purpose of this data set was to allow us to test and debug our own periodogram estimation routines, written in various programming, languages, against a standard data set. At the request of numerous individuals, we are making it available to others who may wish to do the same. We have also included a summary explanation of periodogram estimators and the various considerations that go into generating computer algorithms for power spectrum estimation.

  2. A Malaria Ecology Index Predicted Spatial and Temporal Variation of Malaria Burden and Efficacy of Antimalarial Interventions Based on African Serological Data.

    PubMed

    McCord, Gordon C; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K

    2017-03-01

    AbstractReducing the global health burden of malaria is complicated by weak reporting systems for infectious diseases and a paucity of vital statistics registration. This limits our ability to predict changes in malaria health burden intensity, target antimalarial resources where needed, and identify malaria impacts in retrospective data. We refined and deployed a temporally and spatially varying Malaria Ecology Index (MEI) incorporating climatological and ecological data to estimate malaria transmission strength and validate it against cross-sectional serology data from 39,875 children from seven sub-Saharan African countries. The MEI is strongly associated with malaria burden; a 1 standard deviation higher MEI is associated with a 50-117% increase in malaria risk and a 3-5 g/dL lower level of Hg. Results show that the relationship between malaria ecology and disease burden is attenuated with sufficient coverage of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) or indoor residual spraying (IRS). Having both ITNs and IRS reduce the added risk from adverse malaria ecology conditions by half. Readily available climate and ecology data can be used to estimate the spatial and temporal variation in malaria disease burden, providing a feasible alternative to direct surveillance. This will help target resources for malaria programs in the absence of national coverage of active case detection systems, and facilitate malaria research using retrospective health data.

  3. Evaluation of the Global Fund-supported National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea, 2009-2014.

    PubMed

    Hetzel, Manuel W; Pulford, Justin; Maraga, Seri; Barnadas, Celine; Reimer, Lisa J; Tavul, Livingstone; Jamea-Maiasa, Sharon; Tandrapah, Tony; Maalsen, Anna; Makita, Leo; Siba, Peter M; Mueller, Ivo

    2014-01-01

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is the major funaer Of the National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea (PNG). One of the requirements of a Global Fund grant is the regular and accurate reporting of program outcomes and impact. Under-performance as well as failure to report can result in reduction or discontinuation of program funding. While national information systems should be in a position to provide accurate and comprehensive information for program evaluation, systems in developing countries are often insufficient. This paper describes the five-year plan for the evaluation of the Global Fund Round 8 malaria grant to PNG (2009-2014) developed by the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research (PNGIMR). It builds on a complementary set of studies including national surveys and sentinel site surveillance for the assessment of program outcomes and impact. The PNGIMR evaluation plan is an integral part of the Global Fund grant. The evaluation program assesses intervention coverage (at individual, household and health facility levels), antimalarial drug efficacy, indicators of malaria transmission and morbidity (prevalence, incidence), and all-cause mortality. Operational research studies generate complementary information for improving the control program. Through the evaluation, PNGIMR provides scientific expertise to the PNG National Malaria Control Program and contributes to building local capacity in monitoring and evaluation. While a better integration of evaluation activities into routine systems would be desirable, it is unlikely that sufficient capacity for data analysis and reporting could be established at the National Department of Health (NDoH) within a short period of time. Long-term approaches should aim at strengthening the national health information system and building sufficient capacity at NDoH for routine analysis and reporting, while more complex scientific tasks can be supported by the PNGIMR as the de facto

  4. Estimating environmental benefits of energy programs

    SciTech Connect

    Baechler, M.C.; Schrock, D.W.

    1995-07-01

    Three national reporting programs that either collect or report information on energy savings and the associated emissions reductions from DSM programs are the Conservation Verification Protocols (CVP), the Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Reporting Program (VRP), and the Green Lights Program. The CVP were enacted to report the atmospheric emissions reductions of S0{sub 2} and N0{sub 2}. The VRP was mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) Section 1605(b) to report CO{sub 2}, emissions reductions. Green Lights is a program designed to reduce emissions by encouraging energy-efficient lighting. In this paper we concentrate on how the verification methods, default emission factors and reporting mechanisms affect the accuracy of the reported energy and emissions savings. Additionally, we focus on the dynamic nature of predicted emissions reductions to gauge the accuracy of predictions over time. If conservation programs are designed to affect existing powerplants, if no load growth is anticipated, and if existing plants will not require replacement, a simple static analysis based on an existing resource mix may be acceptable. This approach is enhanced by defining base case, intermediate, and peak resources. However, if today`s decisions will affect tomorrow`s resource decisions, or if the estimates will be used to establish important milestones (such as emission credits), it is prudent to conduct an analysis that captures most incumbent uncertainties. These uncertainties include future resource decisions and the regional character of energy resources, which may not be captured by national estimates and simple extrapolation techniques. While some estimation methods, such as use of default emission factors, produce reasonable national average numbers, the estimates may not be applicable to specific regions. The environmental and economic value of programs may be misstated.

  5. Malaria vaccine.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    Some have argued that the vaccine against malaria developed by Manuel Pattaroyo, a Colombian scientist, is being tested prematurely in humans and that it is unlikely to be successful. While the Pattaroyo vaccine has been shown to confer protection against the relatively mild malaria found in Colombia, doubts exist over whether it will be effective in Africa. Encouraging first results, however, are emerging from field tests in Tanzania. The vaccine triggered a strong new immune response, even in individuals previously exposed to malaria. Additional steps must be taken to establish its impact upon mortality and morbidity. Five major trials are underway around the world. The creator estimates that the first ever effective malaria vaccine could be available for widespread use within five years and he has no intention of securing a patent for the discovery. In another development, malaria specialists from 35 African countries convened at an international workshop in Zimbabwe to compare notes. Participants disparaged financial outlays for the fight against malaria equivalent to 2% of total AIDS funding as insufficient; noted intercountry differences in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment; and found information exchange between anglophone and francophone doctors to be generally poor.

  6. Estimating malaria parasite density among pregnant women at central Sudan using actual and assumed white blood cell count.

    PubMed

    Haggaz, Abdelrahium D; Elbashir, Leana M; Adam, Gamal K; Rayis, Duria A; Adam, Ishag

    2014-01-05

    Microscopic examination using Giemsa-stained thick blood films remains the reference standard for detection of malaria parasites and it is the only method that is widely and practically available for quantifying malaria parasite density. There are few published data (there was no study during pregnancy) investigating the parasite density (ratio of counted parasites within a given number of microscopic fields against counted white blood cells (WBCs) using actual number of WBCs. Parasitaemia was estimated using assumed WBCs (8,000), which was compared to parasitaemia calculated based on each woman's WBCs in 98 pregnant women with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria at Medani Maternity Hospital, Central Sudan. The geometric mean (SD) of the parasite count was 12,014.6 (9,766.5) and 7,870.8 (19,168.8) ring trophozoites /μl, P <0.001 using the actual and assumed (8,000) WBC count, respectively. The median (range) of the ratio between the two parasitaemias (using assumed/actual WBCs) was 1.5 (0.6-5), i e, parasitaemia calculated assuming WBCs equal to median (range) 1.5 (0.6-5) times higher than parasitaemia calculated using actual WBCs. There were 52 out of 98 patients (53%) with ratio between 0.5 and 1.5. For 21 patients (21%) this ratio was higher than 2, and for five patients (5%) it was higher than 3. The estimated parasite density using actual WBC counts was significantly lower than the parasite density estimated using assumed WBC counts. Therefore, it is recommended to use the patient`s actual WBC count in the estimation of the parasite density.

  7. Can Mixed Parasite Infections Thwart Targeted Malaria Elimination Program in India?

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Upasana Shyamsunder; Siwal, Nisha; Pande, Veena

    2017-01-01

    India is highly endemic to malaria with prevalence of all five species of human malaria parasites of Plasmodium genus. India is set for malaria elimination by 2030. Since cases of mixed Plasmodium species infections remain usually undetected but cause huge disease burden, in order to understand the distributional prevalence of both monospecies infections and mixed species infections in India, we collated published data on the differential infection incidences of the five different malaria parasites based on PCR diagnostic assay. About 11% of total cases were due to mixed species infection. Among several interesting observations on both single and mixed parasitic infections, incidences of Plasmodium falciparum monoinfection were found to be significantly higher than P. vivax monoinfection. Also, P. malariae seems to be emerging as a potential malaria threat in India. Putting all the facts together, it appears that the dream of achieving malaria elimination in India will not be completely successful without dealing with mixed species infection. PMID:28900620

  8. The ears of the hippopotamus: manifestations, determinants, and estimates of the malaria burden.

    PubMed

    Breman, J G

    2001-01-01

    Malarious patients experience asymptomatic parasitemia; acute febrile illness (with cerebral damage, anemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia); chronic debilitation (anemia, malnutrition, nervous system-related sequelae); and complications of pregnancy (anemia, low birth weight, increased infant mortality). These manifestations in patients, communities, and countries reflect intrinsic (human, parasite, mosquito) and extrinsic (environmental, social, behavioral, political, and economic conditions as well as disease-control efforts) determinants. At a minimum, between 700,000 and 2.7 million persons die yearly from malaria, over 75% of them African children. Between 400 and 900 million acute febrile episodes occur yearly in African children under 5 yr of age living in endemic areas. Although about half of these children are parasitemic, all merit consideration of malaria-specific therapy, which is becoming more problematic because of parasite resistance to drugs. These numbers will more than double over the next 20 yr without effective control. Fewer than 20% of these febrile episodes and deaths come to the attention of any formal health system. The relatively few ill patients who have any contact with the health services represent the "ears of the hippopotamus." Greatly intensified research activities and control of the intolerable burden of malaria are mandatory if economic development is to accelerate in Africa. In particular, support should be targeted to understanding and preventing malaria-induced anemia, hypoglycemia, effects on pregnancy, and neurologic and developmental impairment. To decrease and stop transmission of this intolerable scourge, there is an urgent need for malaria vaccines, newer drugs, and better vector control methods as well as the ability to improve current technologies and use them more efficiently.

  9. Malaria in Children.

    PubMed

    Cohee, Lauren M; Laufer, Miriam K

    2017-08-01

    Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in endemic areas, leading to an estimated 438,000 deaths in 2015. Malaria is also an important health threat to travelers to endemic countries and should be considered in evaluation of any traveler returning from a malaria-endemic area who develops fever. Considering the diagnosis of malaria in patients with potential exposure is critical. Prompt provision of effective treatment limits the complications of malaria and can be life-saving. Understanding Plasmodium species variation, epidemiology, and drug-resistance patterns in the geographic area where infection was acquired is important for determining treatment choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The relationship between the Plasmodium falciparum parasite ratio in childhood and climate estimates of malaria transmission in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Omumbo, Judith A; Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Snow, Robert W

    2004-06-17

    Plasmodium falciparum morbid and fatal risks are considerably higher in areas supporting parasite prevalence > or =25%, when compared with low transmission areas supporting parasite prevalence below 25%. Recent descriptions of the health impacts of malaria in Africa are based upon categorical descriptions of a climate-driven fuzzy model of suitability (FCS) for stable transmission developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa collaboration (MARA). An electronic and national search was undertaken to identify community-based parasite prevalence surveys in Kenya. Data from these surveys were matched using ArcView 3.2 to extract spatially congruent estimates of the FCS values generated by the MARA model. Levels of agreement between three classes used during recent continental burden estimations of parasite prevalence (0%, >0-<25% and > or =25%) and three classes of FCS (0, >0-<0.75 and > or =0.75) were tested using the kappa (k) statistic and examined as continuous variables to define better levels of agreement. Two hundred and seventeen independent parasite prevalence surveys undertaken since 1980 were identified during the search. Overall agreement between the three classes of parasite prevalence and FCS was weak although significant (k = 0.367, p < 0.0001). The overall correlation between the FCS and the parasite ratio when considered as continuous variables was also positive (0.364, p < 0.001). The margins of error were in the stable, endemic (parasite ratio > or =25%) class with 42% of surveys represented by an FCS <0.75. Reducing the FCS value criterion to > or =0.6 improved the classification of stable, endemic parasite ratio surveys. Zero values of FCS were not adequate discriminators of zero parasite prevalence. Using the MARA model to categorically distinguish populations at differing intensities of malaria transmission in Kenya may under-represent those who are exposed to stable, endemic transmission and over-represent those at no risk. The MARA approach

  11. Estimating malaria parasite prevalence from community surveys in Uganda: a comparison of microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests and polymerase chain reaction.

    PubMed

    Nankabirwa, Joaniter I; Yeka, Adoke; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Kigozi, Ruth; Drakeley, Chris; Kamya, Moses R; Greenhouse, Bryan; Rosenthal, Philip J; Dorsey, Grant; Staedke, Sarah G

    2015-12-30

    Household surveys are important tools for monitoring the malaria disease burden and measuring impact of malaria control interventions with parasite prevalence as the primary metric. However, estimates of parasite prevalence are dependent on a number of factors including the method used to detect parasites, age of the population sampled, and level of immunity. To better understand the influence of diagnostics, age, and endemicity on estimates of parasite prevalence and how these change over time, community-based surveys were performed for two consecutive years in three settings and the sensitivities of microscopy and immunochromatographic rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) were assessed, considering polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the gold standard. Surveys were conducted over the same two-month period in 2012 and 2013 in each of three sub-counties in Uganda: Nagongera in Tororo District (January-February), Walukuba in Jinja District (March-April), and Kihihi in Kanungu District (May-June). In each sub-county, 200 households were randomly enrolled and a household questionnaire capturing information on demographics, use of malaria prevention methods, and proxy indicators of wealth was administered to the head of the household. Finger-prick blood samples were obtained for RDTs, measurement of hemoglobin, thick and thin blood smears, and to store samples on filter paper. A total of 1200 households were surveyed and 4433 participants were included in the analysis. Compared to PCR, the sensitivity of microscopy was low (65.3% in Nagongera, 49.6% in Walukuba and 40.9% in Kihihi) and decreased with increasing age. The specificity of microscopy was over 98% at all sites and did not vary with age or year. Relative differences in parasite prevalence across different age groups, study sites, and years were similar for microscopy and PCR. The sensitivity of RDTs was similar across the three sites (range 77.2-82.8%), was consistently higher than microscopy (p < 0.001 for all

  12. Estimates of short- and long-term incubation periods of Plasmodium vivax malaria in the Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Lee, Hyeong-Woo; Cho, Shin-Hyeong; Lee, Wook-Gyo; In, Tae-Suk; Moon, Sung-Ung; Chung, Gyung Tae; Kim, Tong-Soo

    2007-04-01

    With the current epidemic of vivax malaria closely associated with the demilitarised zone along the border between North and South Korea, it has been suggested that the incubation period tends, in part, to be prolonged. Based on the detailed travel history of cases from 2000 to 2003 who reside in non-malarious areas, statistical estimates of the incubation periods were obtained. The data suggest that cases fall into two categories with short- and long-term incubation periods, respectively. Of 416 cases with available information, 72 and 79 successfully met our criteria for inferring the durations of short- and long-term incubation periods. The mean short- and long-term incubation periods were estimated to be 26.6 days (95% CI 21.0-32.2) and 48.2 weeks (95% CI 46.8-49.5), respectively. The maximum likelihood method was used to fit gamma and normal distributions to the short- and long-term incubation periods, assisting prediction of the frequency distribution of the overall incubation period, which exhibited a bimodal pattern. We postulate that the observed distribution reflects adaptation of the parasite to the seasonal population dynamics of the vector, Anopheles sinensis, ensuring continued transmission of vivax malaria in this temperate zone.

  13. Ahead of the curve: next generation estimators of drug resistance in malaria infections.

    PubMed

    Mideo, Nicole; Kennedy, David A; Carlton, Jane M; Bailey, Jeffrey A; Juliano, Jonathan J; Read, Andrew F

    2013-07-01

    Drug resistance is a major obstacle to controlling infectious diseases. A key challenge is detecting the early signs of drug resistance when little is known about its genetic basis. Focusing on malaria parasites, we propose a way to do this. Newly developing or low level resistance at low frequency in patients can be detected through a phenotypic signature: individual parasite variants clearing more slowly following drug treatment. Harnessing the abundance and resolution of deep sequencing data, our 'selection differential' approach addresses some limitations of extant methods of resistance detection, should allow for the earliest detection of resistance in malaria or other multi-clone infections, and has the power to uncover the true scale of the drug resistance problem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Malaria vectors in the Bioko Island (Equatorial Guinea): estimation of vector dynamics and transmission intensities.

    PubMed

    Cano, J; Berzosa, P J; Roche, J; Rubio, J M; Moyano, E; Guerra-Neira, A; Brochero, H; Mico, M; Edú, M; Benito, A

    2004-03-01

    The current study was performed on the Bioko Island (Equatorial Guinea) with the aim of establishing a rapid assessment technique for mapping malaria risk and measuring vector densities. Human bait collection, tent traps, light traps, indoor resting collection, and window exit traps were used to collect Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles funestus, the two anopheline species involved in malaria transmission in this island. Capture data were used to compare differences in the behavior and vectorial capacity of An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus. Differences in the two species of mosquitoes were found in relation to the season and trapping methods used. Entomological inoculation rates (EIR) for Plasmodium falciparum were calculated using a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test with individual anopheline mosquitoes from human bait collections in two villages during the dry and rainy seasons. P. falciparum sporozoites were detected from both dissected heads/thorax and abdomens of both species.

  15. Malaria in India: The Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India

    PubMed Central

    Das, Aparup; Anvikar, Anupkumar R.; Cator, Lauren J.; Dhiman, Ramesh C.; Eapen, Alex; Mishra, Neelima; Nagpal, Bhupinder N.; Nanda, Nutan; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Read, Andrew F.; Sharma, Surya K.; Singh, Om P.; Singh, Vineeta; Sinnis, Photini; Srivastava, Harish C.; Sullivan, Steven A.; Sutton, Patrick L.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Carlton, Jane M.; Valecha, Neena

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in India and one which contributes significantly to the overall malaria burden in Southeast Asia. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program of India reported ~1.6 million cases and ~1100 malaria deaths in 2009. Some experts argue that this is a serious underestimation and that the actual number of malaria cases per year is likely between 9 and 50 times greater, with an approximate 13-fold underestimation of malaria-related mortality. The difficulty in making these estimations is further exacerbated by (i) highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, (ii) the transmission and overlap of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors, (iii) increasing antimalarial drug resistance and insecticide resistance, and (iv) the impact of climate change on each of these variables. Simply stated, the burden of malaria in India is complex. Here we describe plans for a Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India (CSCMi), one of ten International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMRs) located in malarious regions of the world recently funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. The CSCMi is a close partnership between Indian and United States scientists, and aims to address major gaps in our understanding of the complexity of malaria in India, including changing patterns of epidemiology, vector biology and control, drug resistance, and parasite genomics. We hope that such a multidisciplinary approach that integrates clinical and field studies with laboratory, molecular, and genomic methods will provide a powerful combination for malaria control and prevention in India. PMID:22142788

  16. Malaria in India: the center for the study of complex malaria in India.

    PubMed

    Das, Aparup; Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Cator, Lauren J; Dhiman, Ramesh C; Eapen, Alex; Mishra, Neelima; Nagpal, Bhupinder N; Nanda, Nutan; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Read, Andrew F; Sharma, Surya K; Singh, Om P; Singh, Vineeta; Sinnis, Photini; Srivastava, Harish C; Sullivan, Steven A; Sutton, Patrick L; Thomas, Matthew B; Carlton, Jane M; Valecha, Neena

    2012-03-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in India and one which contributes significantly to the overall malaria burden in Southeast Asia. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program of India reported ∼1.6 million cases and ∼1100 malaria deaths in 2009. Some experts argue that this is a serious underestimation and that the actual number of malaria cases per year is likely between 9 and 50 times greater, with an approximate 13-fold underestimation of malaria-related mortality. The difficulty in making these estimations is further exacerbated by (i) highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, (ii) the transmission and overlap of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors, (iii) increasing antimalarial drug resistance and insecticide resistance, and (iv) the impact of climate change on each of these variables. Simply stated, the burden of malaria in India is complex. Here we describe plans for a Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India (CSCMi), one of ten International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMRs) located in malarious regions of the world recently funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. The CSCMi is a close partnership between Indian and United States scientists, and aims to address major gaps in our understanding of the complexity of malaria in India, including changing patterns of epidemiology, vector biology and control, drug resistance, and parasite genomics. We hope that such a multidisciplinary approach that integrates clinical and field studies with laboratory, molecular, and genomic methods will provide a powerful combination for malaria control and prevention in India. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Estimation of the In Vivo MIC of Cipargamin in Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Hien, Tran Tinh; White, Nicholas J.; Thuy-Nhien, Nguyen Thanh; Hoa, Nhu Thi; Thuan, Phung Duc; Nosten, François; Magnusson, Baldur; Jain, Jay Prakash

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The MIC of an antimalarial drug for a particular infection is the drug level associated with a net parasite multiplication rate of one per asexual cycle. To ensure the cure of malaria, the MIC must be exceeded until all parasites have been eliminated. The development of highly sensitive and accurate PCR quantitation of low-density malaria parasitemia enables the prospective pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) characterization of antimalarial drug effects and now allows identification of the in vivo MIC. An adaptive design and a PK-PD modeling approach were used to determine prospectively the MIC of the new antimalarial cipargamin (KAE609) in adults with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in an open-label, dose-ranging phase 2a study. Vietnamese adults with acute P. falciparum malaria were allocated sequentially to treatment with a single 30-mg (n = 6), 20-mg (n = 5), 10-mg (n = 7), or 15-mg (n = 7) dose of cipargamin. Artemisinin-based combination therapy was given after parasite densities had fallen and then risen as cipargamin levels declined below the MIC but before a return of signs or symptoms. The rates of parasite clearance were dose dependent, with near saturation of the effect being seen at an adult dose of 30 mg. The developed PK-PD model accurately predicted the therapeutic responses in 23/25 patients. The predicted median in vivo MIC was 0.126 ng/ml (range, 0.038 to 0.803 ng/ml). Pharmacometric characterization of the relationship between antimalarial drug concentrations and parasite clearance rates following graded subtherapeutic antimalarial drug dosing is safe and provides a rational framework for dose finding in antimalarial drug development. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01836458.) PMID:27872070

  18. Program for computer aided reliability estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, F. P. (Inventor)

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for estimating the reliability of self-repair and fault-tolerant systems with respect to selected system and mission parameters is presented. The computer program is capable of operation in an interactive conversational mode as well as in a batch mode and is characterized by maintenance of several general equations representative of basic redundancy schemes in an equation repository. Selected reliability functions applicable to any mathematical model formulated with the general equations, used singly or in combination with each other, are separately stored. One or more system and/or mission parameters may be designated as a variable. Data in the form of values for selected reliability functions is generated in a tabular or graphic format for each formulated model.

  19. Knowledge of human social and behavioral factors essential for the success of community malaria control intervention programs: The case of Lomahasha in Swaziland.

    PubMed

    Dlamini, Sabelo V; Liao, Chien-Wei; Dlamini, Zandile H; Siphepho, Jameson S; Cheng, Po-Ching; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Fan, Chia-Kwung

    2017-04-01

    Although malaria control programs have made rapid progress recently, they neglect important social and behavioral factors associated with the disease. Social, political, and cultural factors are involved in malaria control, and individuals in a community may be comfortable in behaving in ways that, to an outsider, may seem contrary to commonly held perceptions. Malaria control efforts can no longer afford to overlook the multidimensional human contexts that create and support varying notions of malaria and its prevention, treatment, and control. This study aimed to assess the knowledge and perceptions of malaria issues in the community, and to identify practices that support or hinder the progress of malaria control programs. A triangulation study involving individual interviews, focus group discussions, and observatory analysis between 2003 and 2010 at Lomahasha, a malarious community on the eastern border of Swaziland and Mozambique, was conducted. Results indicated that a high knowledge level and good perception of the disease were observed in the age group of < 40 years, contrary to those in higher age groups, among the Lomahasha community members. However, behavior of certain community groups includes practices that are not supportive of the national control program's aspirations, such as delay in seeking medical attention, staying outdoors until late, maintaining stagnant water in roadside excavations, and seeking medical assistance from wrong sources. Malpractices are more commonly observed among men, boys, and those who drink alcohol. This study suggests a thorough community diagnosis before all intervention programs for malaria control are instituted. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Conducting international diploma course on malaria program planning and management (1996-2012).

    PubMed

    Mesdaghinia, Ali Reza; Vatandoost, Hassan; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2013-08-31

    Malaria is still a public health problem in the world. One of the main objectives of World Health organization is capacity building of authorities who are involved with malaria control activities. The first course was conducted in 1996 in Bandar Abbas Training center. The course was conducted jointly by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, WHO-EMRO and School of Public health, Tehran university of Medical Sciences. In year 2002, Iran has been designated as WHO regional Malaria Training Center. Prior to initiate the course, pre-test evaluations including 11 subjects were carried out. The examinations include multiple choice questions. Different methods of teaching including lecture, laboratory, workshop, team work, field exercise and presentation were used. The duration of the course was 9 weeks. A total of 360 contact hours were taught. The main subjects were Basic epidemiology and Simple Statistics, Malaria Parasitology, Malaria disease Management, Malaria Entomology, Vector Control, Epidemiological approach, Filed work and Planning. The requirement for achievement of the course was to have at least 60% of the total mark for awarding the diploma certificate. The 13th course was conducted by the financial support of Islamic Development Bank (IDB). A total of 300 participants from 26 different countries have been graduated from these courses so far. This course is providing the skill for decision making, how to combat against malaria in their country and is parallel to the policy of the malaria control for capacity building in malarious areas of the world.

  1. The costs of introducing a malaria vaccine through the expanded program on immunization in Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Hutton, Guy; Tediosi, Fabrizio

    2006-08-01

    This report presents an approach to costing the delivery of a malaria vaccine through the expanded program on immunization (EPI), and presents the predicted cost per dose delivered and cost per fully immunized child (FIC) in Tanzania, which are key inputs to the cost-effectiveness analysis. The costs included in the analysis are those related to the purchase of the vaccine taking into account the wastage rate; the costs of distributing and storing the vaccine at central, zonal, district, and facility level; those of managing the vaccination program; the costs of delivery at facility level (including personnel, syringes, safety boxes, and waste management); and those of additional training of EPI personnel and of social mobilization activities. The average cost per FIC increases almost linearly from US 4.2 dollars per FIC at a vaccine price of US 1 dollars per dose to US 31.2 dollars at vaccine price of US 10 dollars per dose. The marginal cost is approximately 5% less than the average cost. Although the vaccine price still determines most of the total delivery costs, the analysis shows that other costs are relevant and should be taken into account before marketing the vaccine and planning its inclusion into the EPI.

  2. Prospects for malaria elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Ochoa-Orozco, Sergio Andrés; González, Iveth J; Peinado, Lucrecia; Quiñones, Martha L; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2015-05-01

    Malaria remains endemic in 21 countries of the American continent with an estimated 427,000 cases per year. Approximately 10% of these occur in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean regions. During the last decade, malaria transmission in Mesoamerica showed a decrease of ~85%; whereas, in the Caribbean region, Hispaniola (comprising the Dominican Republic [DR] and Haiti) presented an overall rise in malaria transmission, primarily due to a steady increase in Haiti, while DR experienced a significant transmission decrease in this period. The significant malaria reduction observed recently in the region prompted the launch of an initiative for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola (EMMIE) with the active involvement of the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of nine countries, the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) for Mesoamerica, and the Council of Health Ministries of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA). The EMMIE initiative is supported by the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) with active participation of multiple partners including Ministries of Health, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as research centers. EMMIE's main goal is to achieve elimination of malaria transmission in the region by 2020. Here we discuss the prospects, challenges, and research needs associated with this initiative that, if successful, could represent a paradigm for other malaria-affected regions.

  3. Prospects for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Ochoa-Orozco, Sergio Andrés; González, Iveth J.; Peinado, Lucrecia; Quiñones, Martha L.; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains endemic in 21 countries of the American continent with an estimated 427,000 cases per year. Approximately 10% of these occur in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean regions. During the last decade, malaria transmission in Mesoamerica showed a decrease of ~85%; whereas, in the Caribbean region, Hispaniola (comprising the Dominican Republic [DR] and Haiti) presented an overall rise in malaria transmission, primarily due to a steady increase in Haiti, while DR experienced a significant transmission decrease in this period. The significant malaria reduction observed recently in the region prompted the launch of an initiative for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola (EMMIE) with the active involvement of the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of nine countries, the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) for Mesoamerica, and the Council of Health Ministries of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA). The EMMIE initiative is supported by the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) with active participation of multiple partners including Ministries of Health, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as research centers. EMMIE’s main goal is to achieve elimination of malaria transmission in the region by 2020. Here we discuss the prospects, challenges, and research needs associated with this initiative that, if successful, could represent a paradigm for other malaria-affected regions. PMID:25973753

  4. THE REAL McCOIL: A method for the concurrent estimation of the complexity of infection and SNP allele frequency for malaria parasites

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Hsiao-Han; Worby, Colin J.; Yeka, Adoke; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Kamya, Moses R.; Staedke, Sarah G.; Hubbart, Christina; Amato, Roberto; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.

    2017-01-01

    As many malaria-endemic countries move towards elimination of Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent human malaria parasite, effective tools for monitoring malaria epidemiology are urgent priorities. P. falciparum population genetic approaches offer promising tools for understanding transmission and spread of the disease, but a high prevalence of multi-clone or polygenomic infections can render estimation of even the most basic parameters, such as allele frequencies, challenging. A previous method, COIL, was developed to estimate complexity of infection (COI) from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, but relies on monogenomic infections to estimate allele frequencies or requires external allele frequency data which may not available. Estimates limited to monogenomic infections may not be representative, however, and when the average COI is high, they can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Therefore, we developed THE REAL McCOIL, Turning HEterozygous SNP data into Robust Estimates of ALelle frequency, via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and Complexity Of Infection using Likelihood, to incorporate polygenomic samples and simultaneously estimate allele frequency and COI. This approach was tested via simulations then applied to SNP data from cross-sectional surveys performed in three Ugandan sites with varying malaria transmission. We show that THE REAL McCOIL consistently outperforms COIL on simulated data, particularly when most infections are polygenomic. Using field data we show that, unlike with COIL, we can distinguish epidemiologically relevant differences in COI between and within these sites. Surprisingly, for example, we estimated high average COI in a peri-urban subregion with lower transmission intensity, suggesting that many of these cases were imported from surrounding regions with higher transmission intensity. THE REAL McCOIL therefore provides a robust tool for understanding the molecular epidemiology of malaria across transmission settings. PMID

  5. ESTIM: A parameter estimation computer program: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hills, R.G.

    1987-08-01

    The computer code, ESTIM, enables subroutine versions of existing simulation codes to be used to estimate model parameters. Nonlinear least squares techniques are used to find the parameter values that result in a best fit between measurements made in the simulation domain and the simulation code's prediction of these measurements. ESTIM utilizes the non-linear least square code DQED (Hanson and Krogh (1982)) to handle the optimization aspects of the estimation problem. In addition to providing weighted least squares estimates, ESTIM provides a propagation of variance analysis. A subroutine version of COYOTE (Gartling (1982)) is provided. The use of ESTIM with COYOTE allows one to estimate the thermal property model parameters that result in the best agreement (in a least squares sense) between internal temperature measurements and COYOTE's predictions of these internal temperature measurements. We demonstrate the use of ESTIM through several example problems which utilize the subroutine version of COYOTE.

  6. [The American Malaria Program (1941-1946) and its sequelae for biomedical research after World War II].

    PubMed

    Bickel, M H

    1999-01-01

    After Pearl Harbor 1941 and the Japanese conquest of the Netherlands East Indies the U.S. were confronted with both a war in the malaria-ridden South Pacific and the loss of the sources of quinine. This situation gave birth to a Cooperative Wartime Program with the participation of national scientific and medical organizations, universities, hospitals, industries, and the Armed Forces. It worked as a flexible system of coordinated and cooperative units subsidized by the U.S. Government. In the course of WWII malaria casualties dropped beyond expectation due to an improved usage of quinacrine (Atebrine) which was based on new knowledge in pharmacokinetics. Furthermore, basic knowledge in malariology was improved, and a mass-screening resulted in new antimalarial drugs, such as chloroquine. The experiences of the Malaria Program were used by one of its chief architects, James A. Shannon, to transform the National Institutes of Health (NIH) into the model medical research institution whose budget for extramural programs also allowed for the nationwide post-war boom of medical research.

  7. Malaria burden and control in Bangladesh and prospects for elimination: an epidemiological and economic assessment.

    PubMed

    Haque, Ubydul; Overgaard, Hans J; Clements, Archie C A; Norris, Douglas E; Islam, Nazrul; Karim, Jahirul; Roy, Shyamal; Haque, Waziul; Kabir, Moktadir; Smith, David L; Glass, Gregory E

    2014-02-01

    Malaria is endemic in 13 of 64 districts in Bangladesh. About 14 million people are at risk. Some evidence suggests that the prevalence of malaria in Bangladesh has decreased since the the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria started to support the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) in 2007. We did an epidemiological and economic assessment of malaria control in Bangladesh. We obtained annually reported, district-level aggregated malaria case data and information about disbursed funds from the NMCP. We used a Poisson regression model to examine the associations between total malaria, severe malaria, malaria-attributable mortality, and insecticide-treated net coverage. We identified and mapped malaria hotspots using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistic. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the NMCP by estimating the cost per confirmed case, cost per treated case, and cost per person of insecticide-treated net coverage. During the study period (from Jan 1, 2008, to Dec 31, 2012) there were 285,731 confirmed malaria cases. Malaria decreased from 6.2 cases per 1000 population in 2008, to 2.1 cases per 1000 population in 2012. Prevalence of all malaria decreased by 65% (95% CI 65-66), severe malaria decreased by 79% (78-80), and malaria-associated mortality decreased by 91% (83-95). By 2012, there was one insecticide-treated net for every 2.6 individuals (SD 0.20). Districts with more than 0.5 insecticide-treated nets per person had a decrease in prevalence of 21% (95% CI 19-23) for all malaria, 25% (17-32) for severe malaria, and 76% (35-91) for malaria-associated mortality among all age groups. Malaria hotspots remained in the highly endemic districts in the Chittagong Hill Tracts. The cost per diagnosed case was US$0.39 (SD 0.02) and per treated case was $0.51 (0.27); $0.05 (0.04) was invested per person per year for health education and $0.68 (0.30) was spent per person per year for insecticide-treated net coverage. Malaria elimination is an achievable

  8. Conducting International Diploma Course on Malaria Program Planning and Management (1996–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Mesdaghinia, Ali Reza; Vatandoost, Hassan; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2013-01-01

    Background: Malaria is still a public health problem in the world. One of the main objectives of World Health organization is capacity building of authorities who are involved with malaria control activities. Methods: The first course was conducted in 1996 in Bandar Abbas Training center. The course was conducted jointly by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, WHO-EMRO and School of Public health, Tehran university of Medical Sciences. In year 2002, Iran has been designated as WHO regional Malaria Training Center. Prior to initiate the course, pre-test evaluations including 11 subjects were carried out. The examinations include multiple choice questions. Different methods of teaching including lecture, laboratory, workshop, team work, field exercise and presentation were used. The duration of the course was 9 weeks. A total of 360 contact hours were taught. The main subjects were Basic epidemiology and Simple Statistics, Malaria Parasitology, Malaria disease Management, Malaria Entomology, Vector Control, Epidemiological approach, Filed work and Planning. The requirement for achievement of the course was to have at least 60% of the total mark for awarding the diploma certificate. The 13th course was conducted by the financial support of Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Results: A total of 300 participants from 26 different countries have been graduated from these courses so far. Conclusion: This course is providing the skill for decision making, how to combat against malaria in their country and is parallel to the policy of the malaria control for capacity building in malarious areas of the world. PMID:24409435

  9. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models☆

    PubMed Central

    Alegana, Victor A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Wright, Jim A.; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2013-01-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. PMID:24238079

  10. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models.

    PubMed

    Alegana, Victor A; Atkinson, Peter M; Wright, Jim A; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W; Noor, Abdisalan M

    2013-12-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  11. Malaria: Obstacles and Opportunities.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-01-01

    Development Command, Fort Detrick, Frederick, Maryland CARLOS C. CAMPBELL, Malaria Branch, Centers for Disease Control, At- lanta, Georgia TORE GODAL ...Washington. D.C. UDOM CHITPRAROP, Malaria Center. Chiangmai. Thailand JANE COOLEY, International Health Programs. Centers for Disease Con- trol. Atlanta

  12. 78 FR 255 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-03

    ... 111215758-2650-04] RIN 0607-AA51 Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program AGENCY: Bureau of... Bureau) is resuming the Population Estimates Challenge Program to provide eligible governmental units the... officially released; clarify when a challenge of a population estimate can be requested; specify who may...

  13. Mobile soak pits improve spray team mobility, productivity and safety of PMI malaria control programs.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, David F; Brown, Annie S; Bouare, Sory Ibrahima; Belemvire, Allison; George, Kristen; Fornadel, Christen; Norris, Laura; Longhany, Rebecca; Chandonait, Peter J

    2016-09-15

    In the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI)-funded Africa Indoor Residual Spraying Project (AIRS), end-of-day clean-up operations require the safe disposal of wash water resulting from washing the exterior of spray tanks and spray operators' personal protective equipment. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) programs typically use soak pits - large, in-ground filters - to adsorb, filter and then safely degrade the traces of insecticide found in the wash water. Usually these soak pits are permanent installations serving 30 or more operators, located in a central area that is accessible to multiple spray teams at the end of their workday. However, in remote areas, it is often impractical for teams to return to a central soak pit location for cleanup. To increase operational efficiency and improve environmental compliance, the PMI AIRS Project developed and tested mobile soak pits (MSP) in the laboratory and in field applications in Madagascar, Mali, Senegal, and Ethiopia where the distance between villages can be substantial and the road conditions poor. Laboratory testing confirmed the ability of the easily-assembled MSP to reduce effluent concentrations of two insecticides (Actellic 300-CS and Ficam VC) used by the PMI AIRS Project, and to generate the minimal practicable environmental "footprint" in these remote areas. Field testing in the Mali 2014 IRS campaign demonstrated ease of installation and use, resulted in improved and more consistent standards of clean-up, decreased transportation requirements, improved spray team working conditions, and reduced potential for operator exposure to insecticide. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Appendix C: Biomass Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  15. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China--Myanmar border.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-20

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China.

  16. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China – Myanmar border

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-01

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China. PMID:26785944

  17. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  18. 75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-04

    ... 0908171239-91412-02] RIN 0607-AA49 Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates... suspend the Population Estimates Challenge Program during both the decennial census year and the following... Procedure for Challenging Certain Population and Income Estimates) to accommodate the taking of the 2010...

  19. 77 FR 47783 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program and Proposed Changes to the Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-10

    ... Estimates Challenge Program and Proposed Changes to the Program AGENCY: Bureau of the Census, Department of... (Census Bureau) is proposing to resume the Population Estimates Challenge Program in 2012 to provide... the method by which population estimates are officially released; (2) clarify when a challenge of...

  20. Computer programs for estimating civil aircraft economics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.; Molloy, J. K.; Neubawer, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Computer programs for calculating airline direct operating cost, indirect operating cost, and return on investment were developed to provide a means for determining commercial aircraft life cycle cost and economic performance. A representative wide body subsonic jet aircraft was evaluated to illustrate use of the programs.

  1. Research priorities for the development and implementation of serological tools for malaria surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, Salenna R.; Fowkes, Freya J.I.; Richards, Jack S.; Reiling, Linda; Drew, Damien R.

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance is a key component of control and elimination programs. Malaria surveillance has been typically reliant on case reporting by health services, entomological estimates and parasitemia (Plasmodium species) point prevalence. However, these techniques become less sensitive and relatively costly as transmission declines. There is great potential for the development and application of serological biomarkers of malaria exposure as sero-surveillance tools to strengthen malaria control and elimination. Antibodies to malaria antigens are sensitive biomarkers of population-level malaria exposure and can be used to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, estimate transmission levels, monitor changes over time or the impact of interventions on transmission, confirm malaria elimination, and monitor re-emergence of malaria. Sero-surveillance tools could be used in reference laboratories or developed as simple point-of-care tests for community-based surveillance, and different applications and target populations dictate the technical performance required from assays that are determined by properties of antigens and antibody responses. To advance the development of sero-surveillance tools for malaria elimination, major gaps in our knowledge need to be addressed through further research. These include greater knowledge of potential antigens, the sensitivity and specificity of antibody responses, and the longevity of these responses and defining antigens and antibodies that differentiate between exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Additionally, a better understanding of the influence of host factors, such as age, genetics, and comorbidities on antibody responses in different populations is needed. PMID:25580254

  2. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Elimination in Hainan Province, 2002–2012

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Ding-Wei; Du, Jian-Wei; Wang, Guang-Ze; Li, Yu-Chun; He, Chang-Hua; Xue, Rui-De; Wang, Shan-Qing; Hu, Xi-Min

    2015-01-01

    In Hainan Province, China, great achievements in elimination of falciparum malaria have been made since 2010. There have been no locally acquired falciparum malaria cases since that time. The cost-effectiveness of elimination of falciparum malaria has been analyzed in Hainan Province. There were 4,422 falciparum malaria cases reported from 2002 to 2012, more cases occurred in males than in females. From 2002 to 2012, a total of 98.5 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were reported because of falciparum malaria. Populations in the age ranges of 15–25 and 30–44 years had higher incidences and DALYs than other age groups. From 2002 to 2012, malaria-related costs for salaries of staff, funds from the provincial government, national government, and the GFATM were US$3.02, US$2.24, US$1.44, and US$5.08 million, respectively. An estimated 9,504 falciparum malaria cases were averted during the period 2003–2012. The estimated cost per falciparum malaria case averted was US$116.5. The falciparum malaria elimination program in Hainan was highly effective and successful. However, funding for maintenance is still needed because of imported cases. PMID:26438030

  3. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Elimination in Hainan Province, 2002-2012.

    PubMed

    Sun, Ding-Wei; Du, Jian-Wei; Wang, Guang-Ze; Li, Yu-Chun; He, Chang-Hua; Xue, Rui-De; Wang, Shan-Qing; Hu, Xi-Min

    2015-12-01

    In Hainan Province, China, great achievements in elimination of falciparum malaria have been made since 2010. There have been no locally acquired falciparum malaria cases since that time. The cost-effectiveness of elimination of falciparum malaria has been analyzed in Hainan Province. There were 4,422 falciparum malaria cases reported from 2002 to 2012, more cases occurred in males than in females. From 2002 to 2012, a total of 98.5 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were reported because of falciparum malaria. Populations in the age ranges of 15-25 and 30-44 years had higher incidences and DALYs than other age groups. From 2002 to 2012, malaria-related costs for salaries of staff, funds from the provincial government, national government, and the GFATM were US$3.02, US$2.24, US$1.44, and US$5.08 million, respectively. An estimated 9,504 falciparum malaria cases were averted during the period 2003-2012. The estimated cost per falciparum malaria case averted was US$116.5. The falciparum malaria elimination program in Hainan was highly effective and successful. However, funding for maintenance is still needed because of imported cases. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  4. An Investment Case to Prevent the Reintroduction of Malaria in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed

    Shretta, Rima; Baral, Ranju; Avanceña, Anton L V; Fox, Katie; Dannoruwa, Asoka Premasiri; Jayanetti, Ravindra; Jeyakumaran, Arumainayagam; Hasantha, Rasike; Peris, Lalanthika; Premaratne, Risintha

    2017-03-01

    AbstractSri Lanka has made remarkable gains in reducing the burden of malaria, recording no locally transmitted malaria cases since November 2012 and zero deaths since 2007. The country was recently certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in September 2016. Sri Lanka, however, continues to face a risk of resurgence due to persistent receptivity and vulnerability to malaria transmission. Maintaining the gains will require continued financing to the malaria program to maintain the activities aimed at preventing reintroduction. This article presents an investment case for malaria in Sri Lanka by estimating the costs and benefits of sustaining investments to prevent the reintroduction of the disease. An ingredient-based approach was used to estimate the cost of the existing program. The cost of potential resurgence was estimated using a hypothetical scenario in which resurgence assumed to occur, if all prevention of reintroduction activities were halted. These estimates were used to compute a benefit-cost ratio and a return on investment. The total economic cost of the malaria program in 2014 was estimated at U.S. dollars (USD) 0.57 per capita per year with a financial cost of USD0.37 per capita. The cost of potential malaria resurgence was, however, much higher estimated at 13 times the cost of maintaining existing activities or 21 times based on financial costs alone. This evidence suggests a substantial return on investment providing a compelling argument for advocacy for continued prioritization of funding for the prevention of reintroduction of malaria in Sri Lanka.

  5. An Investment Case to Prevent the Reintroduction of Malaria in Sri Lanka

    PubMed Central

    Shretta, Rima; Baral, Ranju; Avanceña, Anton L. V.; Fox, Katie; Dannoruwa, Asoka Premasiri; Jayanetti, Ravindra; Jeyakumaran, Arumainayagam; Hasantha, Rasike; Peris, Lalanthika; Premaratne, Risintha

    2017-01-01

    Sri Lanka has made remarkable gains in reducing the burden of malaria, recording no locally transmitted malaria cases since November 2012 and zero deaths since 2007. The country was recently certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in September 2016. Sri Lanka, however, continues to face a risk of resurgence due to persistent receptivity and vulnerability to malaria transmission. Maintaining the gains will require continued financing to the malaria program to maintain the activities aimed at preventing reintroduction. This article presents an investment case for malaria in Sri Lanka by estimating the costs and benefits of sustaining investments to prevent the reintroduction of the disease. An ingredient-based approach was used to estimate the cost of the existing program. The cost of potential resurgence was estimated using a hypothetical scenario in which resurgence assumed to occur, if all prevention of reintroduction activities were halted. These estimates were used to compute a benefit–cost ratio and a return on investment. The total economic cost of the malaria program in 2014 was estimated at U.S. dollars (USD) 0.57 per capita per year with a financial cost of USD0.37 per capita. The cost of potential malaria resurgence was, however, much higher estimated at 13 times the cost of maintaining existing activities or 21 times based on financial costs alone. This evidence suggests a substantial return on investment providing a compelling argument for advocacy for continued prioritization of funding for the prevention of reintroduction of malaria in Sri Lanka. PMID:28115673

  6. Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation (ASBE) computer program development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiese, Michael R.

    1987-01-01

    A new bearing estimation algorithm (Acoustic Source Analysis Technique - ASAT) and an acoustic analysis computer program (Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation - ASBE) are described, which were developed by Computer Sciences Corporation for NASA Langley Research Center. The ASBE program is used by the Acoustics Division/Applied Acoustics Branch and the Instrument Research Division/Electro-Mechanical Instrumentation Branch to analyze acoustic data and estimate the azimuths from which the source signals radiated. Included are the input and output from a benchmark test case.

  7. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Coordinated DSM Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Lawrence J.; Brown, Marilyn A.

    1995-01-01

    A methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated programs from the standpoint of an electric or gas utility is described and illustrated. The discussion focuses on demand-side management programs cofunded by the government and utilities, but it can be applied to other types of cofunded programs. (SLD)

  8. Evaluating Methods for Estimating Program Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reichardt, Charles S.

    2011-01-01

    I define a treatment effect in terms of a comparison of outcomes and provide a typology of all possible comparisons that can be used to estimate treatment effects, including comparisons that are relatively unknown in both the literature and practice. I then assess the relative merit, worth, and value of all possible comparisons based on the…

  9. Evaluating Methods for Estimating Program Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reichardt, Charles S.

    2011-01-01

    I define a treatment effect in terms of a comparison of outcomes and provide a typology of all possible comparisons that can be used to estimate treatment effects, including comparisons that are relatively unknown in both the literature and practice. I then assess the relative merit, worth, and value of all possible comparisons based on the…

  10. Global health diplomacy investments in Afghanistan: adaptations and outcomes of global fund malaria programs.

    PubMed

    Kevany, Sebastian; Sahak, Omar; Workneh, Nibretie Gobezie; Saeedzai, Sayed Ataullah

    2014-01-01

    Global health programmes require extensive adaptation for implementation in conflict and post-conflict settings. Without such adaptations, both implementation success and diplomatic, international relations and other indirect outcomes may be threatened. Conversely, diplomatic successes may be made through flexible and responsive programmes. We examine adaptations and associated outcomes for malaria treatment and prevention programmes in Afghanistan. In conjunction with the completion of monitoring and evaluation activities for the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, we reviewed adaptations to the structure, design, selection, content and delivery of malaria-related interventions in Afghanistan. Interviews were conducted with programme implementers, service delivery providers, government representatives and local stakeholders, and site visits to service delivery points were completed. Programmes for malaria treatment and prevention require a range of adaptations for successful implementation in Afghanistan. These include (1) amendment of educational materials for rural populations, (2) religious awareness in gender groupings for health educational interventions, (3) recruitment of local staff, educated in languages and customs, for both quality assurance and service delivery, (4) alignment with diplomatic principles and, thereby, avoidance of confusion with broader strategic and military initiatives and (5) amendments to programme 'branding' procedures. The absence of provision for these adaptations made service delivery excessively challenging and increased the risk of tension between narrow programmatic and broader diplomatic goals. Conversely, adapted global health programmes displayed a unique capacity to access potentially extremist populations and groups in remote regions otherwise isolated from international activities. A range of diplomatic considerations when delivering global health programmes in conflict and post-conflict settings are

  11. Multiple Insecticide Resistance: An Impediment to Insecticide-Based Malaria Vector Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Steurbaut, Walter; Spanoghe, Pieter; Van Bortel, Wim; Denis, Leen; Tessema, Dejene A.; Getachew, Yehenew; Coosemans, Marc; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

    2011-01-01

    Background Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are key components in malaria prevention and control strategy. However, the development of resistance by mosquitoes to insecticides recommended for IRS and/or ITNs/LLINs would affect insecticide-based malaria vector control. We assessed the susceptibility levels of Anopheles arabiensis to insecticides used in malaria control, characterized basic mechanisms underlying resistance, and evaluated the role of public health use of insecticides in resistance selection. Methodology/Principal findings Susceptibility status of An. arabiensis was assessed using WHO bioassay tests to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin, malathion and propoxur in Ethiopia from August to September 2009. Mosquito specimens were screened for knockdown resistance (kdr) and insensitive acetylcholinesterase (ace-1R) mutations using AS-PCR and PCR-RFLP, respectively. DDT residues level in soil from human dwellings and the surrounding environment were determined by Gas Chromatography with Electron Capture Detector. An. arabiensis was resistant to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin and malathion, but susceptible to propoxur. The West African kdr allele was found in 280 specimens out of 284 with a frequency ranged from 95% to 100%. Ace-1R mutation was not detected in all specimens scored for the allele. Moreover, DDT residues were found in soil samples from human dwellings but not in the surrounding environment. Conclusion The observed multiple-resistance coupled with the occurrence of high kdr frequency in populations of An. arabiensis could profoundly affect the malaria vector control programme in Ethiopia. This needs an urgent call for implementing rational resistance management strategies and integrated vector control intervention. PMID:21264325

  12. Two years post affordable medicines facility for malaria program: availability and prices of anti-malarial drugs in central Ghana.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Alexander; Kwarteng, Anthony; Febir, Lawrence Gyabaa; Amenga-Etego, Seeba; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Asante, Kwaku Poku

    2017-01-01

    The Affordable Medicines Facility for malaria (AMFm) Program was a subsidy aimed at artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) in order to increase availability, affordability, and market share of ACTs in 8 malaria endemic countries in Africa. The WHO supervised the manufacture of the subsidized products, named them Quality Assured ACTs (QAACT) and printed a Green Leaf Logo on all QAACT packages. Ghana began to receive the subsidized QAACTs in 2010. A cross-sectional stock survey was conducted at 63 licensed chemical shops (LCS) and private pharmacies in two districts of the Brong-Ahafo region of Ghana to determine the availability and price of all anti-malarial treatments. Drug outlets were visited over a 3-weeks period in October and November of 2014, about 2 years after the end of AMFm program. At least one QAACT was available in 88.9% (95% CI 80.9% - 96.8%) of all drug outlets with no difference between urban and rural locations. Non-Assured ACTs (NAACT) were significantly more available in urban drug outlets [75.0% availability (95% CI 59.1% - 90.9%)] than in rural drug outlets [16.1% availability (95% CI 2.4% - 29.9%)]. The top selling product was Artemether Lumefantrine with the Green Leaf Logo, a QAACT. There was a significant difference in the mean price of a QAACT [$1.04 USD (95% CI $0.98 - $1.11)], and the mean price of a NAACT in both the urban and rural areas [$2.46 USD (95% CI $2.11 - $2.81)]. There was no significant difference in the price of any product that was available in urban and rural settings. About 2 years after the AMFm program, subsidized QAACTs in Ghana were widely available and more affordable than NAACTs in the Kintampo North District and Kintampo South Municipality of Ghana. The AMFm program appeared to have mostly succeeded in making QAACTs available and affordable.

  13. On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2011-02-01

    This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

  14. EDIN0613P weight estimating program. [for launch vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirsch, G. N.

    1976-01-01

    The weight estimating relationships and program developed for space power system simulation are described. The program was developed to size a two-stage launch vehicle for the space power system. The program is actually part of an overall simulation technique called EDIN (Engineering Design and Integration) system. The program sizes the overall vehicle, generates major component weights and derives a large amount of overall vehicle geometry. The program is written in FORTRAN V and is designed for use on the Univac Exec 8 (1110). By utilizing the flexibility of this program while remaining cognizant of the limits imposed upon output depth and accuracy by utilization of generalized input, this program concept can be a useful tool for estimating purposes at the conceptual design stage of a launch vehicle.

  15. Ridge: a computer program for calculating ridge regression estimates

    Treesearch

    Donald E. Hilt; Donald W. Seegrist

    1977-01-01

    Least-squares coefficients for multiple-regression models may be unstable when the independent variables are highly correlated. Ridge regression is a biased estimation procedure that produces stable estimates of the coefficients. Ridge regression is discussed, and a computer program for calculating the ridge coefficients is presented.

  16. Cerebral malaria

    PubMed Central

    Rénia, Laurent; Wu Howland, Shanshan; Claser, Carla; Charlotte Gruner, Anne; Suwanarusk, Rossarin; Hui Teo, Teck; Russell, Bruce; Ng, Lisa

    2012-01-01

    Cerebral malaria is the most severe pathology caused by the malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. The pathogenic mechanisms leading to cerebral malaria are still poorly defined as studies have been hampered by limited accessibility to human tissues. Nevertheless, histopathology of post-mortem human tissues and mouse models of cerebral malaria have indicated involvement of the blood-brain barrier in cerebral malaria. In contrast to viruses and bacteria, malaria parasites do not infiltrate and infect the brain parenchyma. Instead, rupture of the blood-brain barrier occurs and may lead to hemorrhages resulting in neurological alterations. Here, we review the most recent findings from human studies and mouse models on the interactions of malaria parasites and the blood-brain barrier, shedding light on the pathogenesis of cerebral malaria, which may provide directions for possible interventions. PMID:22460644

  17. Estimating Software Effort Hours for Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallshein, Corinne C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation (SCE) uses labor hours or effort required to conceptualize, develop, integrate, test, field, or maintain program components. Department of Defense (DoD) SCE can use initial software data parameters to project effort hours for large, software-intensive programs for contractors reporting the top levels of process maturity,…

  18. Estimating Software Effort Hours for Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallshein, Corinne C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation (SCE) uses labor hours or effort required to conceptualize, develop, integrate, test, field, or maintain program components. Department of Defense (DoD) SCE can use initial software data parameters to project effort hours for large, software-intensive programs for contractors reporting the top levels of process maturity,…

  19. KERNELHR: A program for estimating animal home ranges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seaman, D.E.; Griffith, B.; Powell, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    Kernel methods are state of the art for estimating animal home-range area and utilization distribution (UD). The KERNELHR program was developed to provide researchers and managers a tool to implement this extremely flexible set of methods with many variants. KERNELHR runs interactively or from the command line on any personal computer (PC) running DOS. KERNELHR provides output of fixed and adaptive kernel home-range estimates, as well as density values in a format suitable for in-depth statistical and spatial analyses. An additional package of programs creates contour files for plotting in geographic information systems (GIS) and estimates core areas of ranges.

  20. Changes in Malaria Epidemiology in Africa and New Challenges for Elimination.

    PubMed

    Nkumama, Irene N; O'Meara, Wendy P; Osier, Faith H A

    2017-02-01

    Although the burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is gradually declining in many parts of Africa, it is characterized by spatial and temporal variability that presents new and evolving challenges for malaria control programs. Reductions in the malaria burden need to be sustained in the face of changing epidemiology whilst simultaneously tackling significant pockets of sustained or increasing transmission. Large-scale, robust surveillance mechanisms that measure rather than estimate the actual burden of malaria over time from large areas of the continent where such data are lacking need to be prioritized. We review these fascinating developments, caution against complacency, and make the case that improving the extent and quality of malaria surveillance is vital for Africa as she marches on towards elimination.

  1. Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    2004-01-01

    LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

  2. WHO Expert Committee on Malaria. Seventeenth report.

    PubMed

    1979-01-01

    This publication consists of guidelines to assist health administrators and planners in planning, implementing, and evaluating malaria control programs that reflect the reorientation of the World Health Organization malaria control strategy endorsed by the World Health Assembly. The report stresses approaches to malaria control, describing the recent resurgence of malaria and present constraints on malaria control; prerequisites for implementation of the revised antimalaria strategy; objectives of a malaria control program; factors affecting planning of control programs including epidemiological factors related to the environment, man, the vector, and the parasite; socioeconomic factors; and the use of antimalaria measures in 4 different situations for reduction and prevention of mortality due to malaria, reduction and prevention of mortality and morbidity particularly in high risk groups, reduction of prevalence and endemicity of malaria, or countrywide malaria control aimed ultimately at eradication; program implementation, including definition of targets, interrelationship of the malaria services, general health services, and community, and program implementation in relation to each of the 4 tactical variants; and general principles, operational and epidemiological criteria, and socioeconomic indicators for program evaluation. Factors determining malaria epidemics, outbreaks of malaria during eradication or control campaigns, forecasting and detection of malaria epidemics, and control of epidemics are then discussed. Training in malaria control and advances in antimalaria measures including drugs, immunological methods, antimosquito measures, and biological and genetic approaches to vector control and their potential value are assessed. Program coordination between countries and at regional and global levels and data collection and dissemination for international surveillance are discussed. A series of recommendations is offered for various aspects of malaria

  3. Adjuvants for malaria vaccines.

    PubMed

    Coler, R N; Carter, D; Friede, M; Reed, S G

    2009-09-01

    There is a renewed enthusiasm about subunit vaccines for malaria coincident with the formation of new alliances and partnerships raising international public awareness, attracting increased resources and the re-focusing of research programs on adjuvant development for infectious disease vaccines. It is generally accepted that subunit vaccines for malaria will require adjuvants to induce protective immune responses, and availability of suitable adjuvants has in the past been a barrier to the development of malaria vaccines. Several novel adjuvants are now in licensed products or in late stage clinical development, while several others are in the earlier development pipeline. Successful vaccine development requires knowing which adjuvants to use and knowing how to formulate adjuvants and antigens to achieve stable, safe, and immunogenic vaccines. For the majority of vaccine researchers this information is not readily available, nor is access to well-characterized adjuvants. In this minireview, we outline the current state of adjuvant research and development as it pertains to effective malaria vaccines.

  4. Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.

  5. [Airport malaria].

    PubMed

    Queyriaux, Benjamin; Pradines, Bruno; Hasseine, Lilia; Coste, Sébastien; Rodriguez, Patrick; Coffinet, Thierry; Haus-Cheymol, Rachel; Rogier, Christophe

    2009-01-01

    Airport malaria is a particular form of autochthonous malaria: it happens when the Plasmodium infected Anopheles genus mosquito travels from an endemic area to a malaria free airport. Since 1969, 30 cases of airport malaria have been reported in France, 2 during summer 2008. The severity of airport malaria is explained by the frequency of Plasmodium falciparum infecting non immune individuals and an often important diagnosis delay. It is a compulsory notification disease in France. The International Health Regulations (IHR) require states to check that airplanes coming from malaria or arboviral endemic area are systematically disinsected. Vector control measures have to be implemented within a distance of at least 400 meters around the perimeter of airports in malaria or arboviral endemic areas. In France, this measure applies to all airports of French overseas territories, except for the island of Saint-Pierre and Miquelon.

  6. Estimated impact on birth weight of scaling up intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy given sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Africa: A mathematical model

    PubMed Central

    Floyd, Jessica; ter Kuile, Feiko; Cairns, Matt

    2017-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission has declined substantially in the 21st century, but pregnant women in areas of sustained transmission still require protection to prevent the adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes associated with malaria in pregnancy (MiP). A recent call to action has been issued to address the continuing low coverage of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp). This call has, however, been questioned by some, in part due to concerns about resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), the only drug currently recommended for IPTp. Methods and findings Using an existing mathematical model of MiP, we combined estimates of the changing endemicity of malaria across Africa with maps of SP resistance mutations and current coverage of antenatal access and IPTp with SP (IPTp-SP) across Africa. Using estimates of the relationship between SP resistance mutations and the parasitological efficacy of SP during pregnancy, we estimated the varying impact of IPTp-SP across Africa and the incremental value of enhancing IPTp-SP uptake to match current antenatal care (ANC) coverage. The risks of MiP and malaria-attributable low birthweight (mLBW) in unprotected pregnancies (i.e., those not using insecticide-treated nets [ITNs]) leading to live births fell by 37% (33%–41% 95% credible interval [crI]) and 31% (27%–34% 95% crI), respectively, from 2000 to 2015 across endemic areas in sub-Saharan Africa. However, these gains are fragile, and coverage is far from optimal. In 2015, 9.5 million (8.3 million–10.4 million 95% crI) of 30.6 million pregnancies in these areas would still have been infected with Plasmodium falciparum without intervention, leading to 750,000 (390,000–1.1 million 95% crI) mLBW deliveries. In all, 6.6 million (5.6 million–7.3 million 95% crI) of these 9.5 million (69.3%) pregnancies at risk of infection (and 53.4% [16.3 million/30.6 million] of all pregnancies) occurred in settings with near-perfect SP curative

  7. Estimated impact on birth weight of scaling up intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy given sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Africa: A mathematical model.

    PubMed

    Walker, Patrick G T; Floyd, Jessica; Ter Kuile, Feiko; Cairns, Matt

    2017-02-01

    Malaria transmission has declined substantially in the 21st century, but pregnant women in areas of sustained transmission still require protection to prevent the adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes associated with malaria in pregnancy (MiP). A recent call to action has been issued to address the continuing low coverage of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp). This call has, however, been questioned by some, in part due to concerns about resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), the only drug currently recommended for IPTp. Using an existing mathematical model of MiP, we combined estimates of the changing endemicity of malaria across Africa with maps of SP resistance mutations and current coverage of antenatal access and IPTp with SP (IPTp-SP) across Africa. Using estimates of the relationship between SP resistance mutations and the parasitological efficacy of SP during pregnancy, we estimated the varying impact of IPTp-SP across Africa and the incremental value of enhancing IPTp-SP uptake to match current antenatal care (ANC) coverage. The risks of MiP and malaria-attributable low birthweight (mLBW) in unprotected pregnancies (i.e., those not using insecticide-treated nets [ITNs]) leading to live births fell by 37% (33%-41% 95% credible interval [crI]) and 31% (27%-34% 95% crI), respectively, from 2000 to 2015 across endemic areas in sub-Saharan Africa. However, these gains are fragile, and coverage is far from optimal. In 2015, 9.5 million (8.3 million-10.4 million 95% crI) of 30.6 million pregnancies in these areas would still have been infected with Plasmodium falciparum without intervention, leading to 750,000 (390,000-1.1 million 95% crI) mLBW deliveries. In all, 6.6 million (5.6 million-7.3 million 95% crI) of these 9.5 million (69.3%) pregnancies at risk of infection (and 53.4% [16.3 million/30.6 million] of all pregnancies) occurred in settings with near-perfect SP curative efficacy (>99%) based on the most recent

  8. Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Cambodia

    PubMed Central

    Siv, Sovannaroth; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Bouth, Denis Mey; Lek, Dysoley; Rashid, Mohammad Abdur; By, Ngau Peng; Popovici, Jean; Huy, Rekol; Menard, Didier

    2016-01-01

    The Cambodian National Strategic Plan for Elimination of Malaria aims to move step by step toward elimination of malaria across Cambodia with an initial focus on Plasmodium falciparum malaria before achieving elimination of all forms of malaria, including Plasmodium vivax in 2025. The emergence of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum in western Cambodia over the last decade has drawn global attention to support the ultimate goal of P. falciparum elimination, whereas the control of P. vivax lags much behind, making the 2025 target gradually less achievable unless greater attention is given to P. vivax elimination in the country. The following review presents in detail the past and current situation regarding P. vivax malaria, activities of the National Malaria Control Program, and interventional measures applied. Constraints and obstacles that can jeopardize our efforts to eliminate this parasite species are discussed. PMID:27708187

  9. Malaria (For Parents)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Old Feeding Your 1- to 2-Year-Old Malaria KidsHealth > For Parents > Malaria Print A A A ... Prevention Diagnosis and Treatment en español Malaria About Malaria Malaria is a common infection in hot, tropical ...

  10. Cost estimation for unmanned lunar and planetary programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunkin, J. H.; Pekar, P. R.; Spadoni, D. J.; Stone, C. A.

    1973-01-01

    A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.

  11. Use of integrated malaria management reduces malaria in Kenya.

    PubMed

    Okech, Bernard A; Mwobobia, Isaac K; Kamau, Anthony; Muiruri, Samuel; Mutiso, Noah; Nyambura, Joyce; Mwatele, Cassian; Amano, Teruaki; Mwandawiro, Charles S

    2008-01-01

    and 81% reported buying the nets within the last 5 years. The community also used mosquito reduction measures including, in order of preference, environmental management (35%), mosquito repellent and smoke (31%) insecticide canister sprays (11%), and window and door screens (6%). These methods used by the community comprise an integrated malaria management (IMM) package. Over the last 4 years prior to this study, the malaria cases in the community hospital reduced from about 40% in 2000 to less than 10% by 2004 and by the year 2007 malaria cases decreased to zero. In addition, a one time cross-sectional malaria parasite survey detected no Plasmodium infection in 300 primary school children in the area. Mosquito vector populations were variable in the six villages but were generally lower in villages that did not engage in irrigation activities. The malaria risk as estimated by EIR remained low and varied by village and proximity to irrigation areas. The average EIR in the area was estimated at 0.011 infectious bites per person per day. The usage of a combination of malaria control tools in an integrated fashion by residents of Mwea division might have influenced the decreased malaria cases in the district hospital and in the school children. A vigorous campaign emphasizing IMM should be adopted and expanded in Mwea division and in other areas with different eco-epidemiological patterns of malaria transmission. With sustained implementation and support from community members integrated malaria management can reduce malaria significantly in affected communities in Africa.

  12. [Performance assessment employing slide sets: A tool for the classification of senior microscopists from Colombia´s Malaria Control Program].

    PubMed

    Mendoza, Nohora Marcela; González, Nohora Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    One of the most important activities for quality assurance of malaria diagnosis is performance assessment. In Colombia, performance assessment of malaria microscopists has been done through the external performance assessment and indirect external performance assessment programs. To assess the performance of malaria microscopists of public reference laboratories using slide sets, and to describe the methodology used for this purpose. This was a retrospective study to evaluate the concordance of senior microscopists regarding parasite detection, species identification and parasite count based on the results of the assessment of competences using two sets, one comprising 40 slides, and another one with 17 slides. The concordance for parasite detection was 96.9% (95% CI: 96.0-97.5) and 88.7% (95% CI: 86.6-90.5) for species identification. The average percentage of concordant slides in the group evaluated was 89.7% (95% CI: 87.5-91.6). Most of the senior microscopists in Colombia were classified in the two top categories in the performance assessment using slide sets. The most common difficulty encountered was the identification of parasite species. The use of this tool to assess individual performance of microscopists in the evaluation of samples with different degrees of difficulty allows for characterizing the members of the malaria diagnosis network and strengthening the abilities of those who require it.

  13. Domestic Larval Control Practices and Malaria Prevalence among Under-Five Children in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Diabaté, Souleymane; Druetz, Thomas; Millogo, Tiéba; Ly, Antarou; Fregonese, Federica; Kouanda, Seni; Haddad, Slim

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Larval source management has contributed to malaria decline over the past years. However, little is known about the impact of larval control practices undertaken at the household level on malaria transmission. Methods The study was conducted in Kaya health district after the 2010 mass distribution of insecticide treated-nets and the initiation of malaria awareness campaigns in Burkina Faso. The aim was to (i) estimate the level of domestic larval control practices (cleaning of the house and its surroundings, eradication of larval sources, and elimination of hollow objects that might collect water); (ii) identify key determinants; and (iii) explore the structural relationships between these practices, participation in awareness-raising activities and mothers’ knowledge/attitudes/practices, and malaria prevalence among under-five children. Results Overall, 2004 households were surveyed and 1,705 under-five children were examined. Half of the mothers undertook at least one action to control larval proliferation. Mothers who had gone to school had better knowledge about malaria and were more likely to undertake domestic larval control practices. Living in highly exposed rural areas significantly decreased the odds of undertaking larval control actions. Mothers’ participation in malaria information sessions increased the adoption of vector control actions and bednet use. Malaria prevalence was statistically lower among children in households where mothers had undertaken at least one vector control action or used bed-nets. There was a 0.16 standard deviation decrease in malaria prevalence for every standard deviation increase in vector control practices. The effect of bednet use on malaria prevalence was of the same magnitude. Conclusion Cleaning the house and its surroundings, eradicating breeding sites, and eliminating hollow objects that might collect water play a substantial role in preventing malaria among under-five. There is a need for national

  14. Imported malaria.

    PubMed

    Schultz, M G

    1974-01-01

    There have been 4 waves of imported malaria in the USA. They occurred during the colonization of the country and during the Second World War, the UN Police Action in Korea, and the Viet-Nam conflict. The first 3 episodes are briefly described and the data on imported malaria from Viet-Nam are discussed in detail.Endemic malaria is resurgent in many tropical countries and international travel is also on the rise. This increases the likelihood of malaria being imported from an endemic area and introduced into a receptive area. The best defence for countries threatened by imported malaria is a vigorous surveillance programme. The principles of surveillance are discussed and an example of their application is provided by a description of the methods used to conduct surveillance of malaria in the USA.

  15. Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Reiner, Robert C; Le Menach, Arnaud; Kunene, Simon; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Hsiang, Michelle S; Perkins, T Alex; Greenhouse, Bryan; Tatem, Andrew J; Cohen, Justin M; Smith, David L

    2015-12-29

    Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections . In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show 'malariogenic potential', a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination.

  16. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    SciTech Connect

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  17. Malaria in the WHO Southeast Asia region.

    PubMed

    Kondrashin, A V

    1992-09-01

    Malaria endemic countries in the southeast Asia region include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Population movement and rapid urbanization, both largely caused by unemployment, and environmental deterioration change the malaria pattern. They also increase the incidence of drug-resistant malaria, especially resistance to 4-aminoquinolines. In India, Plasmodium falciparum is linked to the density and distribution of tribals, and, in southern Thailand, rubber tappers have the highest malaria incidence rate (46.29%). Since the population is young and the young are highly sensitive to malaria infection, the region has low community immunity. High malaria priority areas are forests, forested hills, forest fringe areas, developmental project sites, and border areas. High risk groups include infants, young children, pregnant women, and mobile population groups. Malaria incidence is between 2.5-2.8 million cases, and the slide positivity rate is about 3%. P. falciparum constitutes 40% for all malaria cases. In 1988 in India, there were 222 malaria deaths. Malaria is the 7th most common cause of death in Thailand. 3 of the 19 Anopheline species are resistant to at least 1 insecticide, particularly DDT. Posteradication epidemics surfaced in the mid-1970s. Malaria control programs tend to use the primary health care and integration approach to malaria control. Antiparasite measures range from a single-dose of an antimalarial to mass drug administration. Residual spraying continues to be the main strategy of vector control. Some other vector control measures are fish feeding on mosquito larvae, insecticide impregnated mosquito nets, and repellents. Control programs also have health education activities. India allocates the highest percentage of its total health budget to malaria control (21.54%). Few malariology training programs exist in the region. Slowly processed surveillance data limit the countries' ability to

  18. [The ABCD of malaria prevention in pediatric travelers].

    PubMed

    Berberian, Griselda; Rosanova, M Teresa; Torroija, Cecilia; Praino, M Laura

    2014-10-01

    The development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, population and travelers movements to malaria zones have led to the resurgence of malaria as a global health problem. Estimates suggest that 660,000 deaths occur annually, mainly in infants, children and pregnant woman. Disease knowledge and protection against mosquito bites are the first line of defense against malaria. Malaria chemoprophylaxis adds to these measures, it must be evaluated based on the individual risk.

  19. Reactive Case Detection for Malaria Elimination: Real-Life Experience from an Ongoing Program in Swaziland

    PubMed Central

    Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Novotny, Joe M.; Kunene, Simon; Dlamini, Sabelo; Zulu, Zulisile; Cohen, Justin M.; Hsiang, Michelle S.; Greenhouse, Bryan; Gosling, Roly D.

    2013-01-01

    As countries move towards malaria elimination, methods to identify infections among populations who do not seek treatment are required. Reactive case detection, whereby individuals living in close proximity to passively detected cases are screened and treated, is one approach being used by a number of countries including Swaziland. An outstanding issue is establishing the epidemiologically and operationally optimal screening radius around each passively detected index case. Using data collected between December 2009 and June 2012 from reactive case detection (RACD) activities in Swaziland, we evaluated the effect of screening radius and other risk factors on the probability of detecting cases by reactive case detection. Using satellite imagery, we also evaluated the household coverage achieved during reactive case detection. Over the study period, 250 cases triggered RACD, which identified a further 74 cases, showing the value of RACD over passive surveillance alone. Results suggest that the odds of detecting a case within the household of the index case were significantly higher than in neighbouring households (odds ratio (OR) 13, 95% CI 3.1–54.4). Furthermore, cases were more likely to be detected when RACD was conducted within a week of the index presenting at a health facility (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.1–66.4) and if the index household had not been sprayed with insecticide (OR sprayed vs not sprayed 0.11, 95% CI 0.03–0.46). The large number of households missed during RACD indicates that a 1 km screening radius may be impractical in such resource limited settings such as Swaziland. Future RACD in Swaziland could be made more effective by achieving high coverage amongst individuals located near to index cases and in areas where spraying has not been conducted. As well as allowing the programme to implement RACD more rapidly, this would help to more precisely define the optimal screening radius. PMID:23700437

  20. Reactive case detection for malaria elimination: real-life experience from an ongoing program in Swaziland.

    PubMed

    Sturrock, Hugh J W; Novotny, Joe M; Kunene, Simon; Dlamini, Sabelo; Zulu, Zulisile; Cohen, Justin M; Hsiang, Michelle S; Greenhouse, Bryan; Gosling, Roly D

    2013-01-01

    As countries move towards malaria elimination, methods to identify infections among populations who do not seek treatment are required. Reactive case detection, whereby individuals living in close proximity to passively detected cases are screened and treated, is one approach being used by a number of countries including Swaziland. An outstanding issue is establishing the epidemiologically and operationally optimal screening radius around each passively detected index case. Using data collected between December 2009 and June 2012 from reactive case detection (RACD) activities in Swaziland, we evaluated the effect of screening radius and other risk factors on the probability of detecting cases by reactive case detection. Using satellite imagery, we also evaluated the household coverage achieved during reactive case detection. Over the study period, 250 cases triggered RACD, which identified a further 74 cases, showing the value of RACD over passive surveillance alone. Results suggest that the odds of detecting a case within the household of the index case were significantly higher than in neighbouring households (odds ratio (OR) 13, 95% CI 3.1-54.4). Furthermore, cases were more likely to be detected when RACD was conducted within a week of the index presenting at a health facility (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.1-66.4) and if the index household had not been sprayed with insecticide (OR sprayed vs not sprayed 0.11, 95% CI 0.03-0.46). The large number of households missed during RACD indicates that a 1 km screening radius may be impractical in such resource limited settings such as Swaziland. Future RACD in Swaziland could be made more effective by achieving high coverage amongst individuals located near to index cases and in areas where spraying has not been conducted. As well as allowing the programme to implement RACD more rapidly, this would help to more precisely define the optimal screening radius.

  1. Current situation and challenges in implementing Malaria control strategies in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Ghanchi, N K; Shakoor, S; Thaver, A M; Khan, M S; Janjua, A; Beg, M A

    2016-08-01

    Malaria transmission is unstable in Pakistan with the highest number of cases reported during the monsoon season. Despite its high incidence, malaria is still a poorly resourced, poorly funded and an uncontrolled disease especially in far-flung areas. Pakistan's National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), although operational since its inception in 1947, has suffered due to the unstable political, socioeconomic and financial situation prevalent in the country. In Pakistan, more than 300 000 cases of malaria are reported every year with 68% of the cases caused by Plasmodium vivax. It is estimated that about 70-80% of the population accesses the private sector for treatment. As the private sector does not routinely report data to the government, the actual malaria burden could be 4-5 times higher than reported. P. vivax now accounts for more than 85% of all cases requiring hospital admission compared to 54% in 2000. In this review, we have described the saga of poor control of malaria in Pakistan over several years in context of restructuring of the Malaria Control Program, challenges to improvement, and way forward.

  2. Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

  3. Native Larvivorous Fish in an Endemic Malarious Area of Southern Iran, a Biological Alternative Factor for Chemical Larvicides in Malaria Control Program

    PubMed Central

    SHAHI, Mehran; KAMRANI, Ehsan; SALEHI, Mehrdad; HABIBI, Reza; HANAFI-BOJD, Ahmad Ali

    2015-01-01

    Background: The widespread use of chemical insecticides, resistance in vectors and environmental problems, all have led to an increased interest in the use of biological agents in malaria control programs. The most important functional elements are the native fish. The aim of this study was to identify the native species of lavivorous fish in Rudan County, southern Iran, to introduce an effective species and to propose its’ implementation in the national malaria control program. Methods: This ecologically descriptive study was conducted during 2011–2012 using random sampling from different fish habitats of Rudan County. The shoals of fish were caught using fishing net. Fish samples were then identified in the Ichthyology lab, Department of Fisheries and the Environment, Hormozgan University. Results: Three species of larvivorous fish were identified as follows: Gambusia holbrooki, Aphaniusdispar dispar and Aphanius sp. The latter species has the most distribution in the study area and needs more morphological and molecular studies for identification at the species level. Conclusion: Two species of native fish, i.e., A. dispar and A. sp. with larvivorous potential live in the area. Further studies on their predatory property are recommended in order to apply this local potential against malaria vectors in the area. PMID:26744713

  4. A computer program for estimation from incomplete multinomial data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    Coding is given for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the vector p of multinomial cell probabilities from incomplete data. Also included is coding to calculate and approximate elements of the posterior mean and covariance matrices. The program is written in FORTRAN 4 language for the Control Data CYBER 170 series digital computer system with network operating system (NOS) 1.1. The program requires approximately 44000 octal locations of core storage. A typical case requires from 72 seconds to 92 seconds on CYBER 175 depending on the value of the prior parameter.

  5. Progress with new malaria vaccines.

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Daniel; Hill, Adrian V. S.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic disease of major global health significance that causes an estimated 2.7 million deaths each year. In this review we describe the burden of malaria and discuss the complicated life cycle of Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite responsible for most of the deaths from the disease, before reviewing the evidence that suggests that a malaria vaccine is an attainable goal. Significant advances have recently been made in vaccine science, and we review new vaccine technologies and the evaluation of candidate malaria vaccines in human and animal studies worldwide. Finally, we discuss the prospects for a malaria vaccine and the need for iterative vaccine development as well as potential hurdles to be overcome. PMID:14997243

  6. Effectiveness and impact of the cross-border healthcare model as implemented by non-governmental organizations: case study of the malaria control programs by health poverty action on the China-Myanmar border.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jun; Dong, Jia-Qiang; Li, Jia-Ying; Zhang, Yue; Tian, Yang-Hui; Sun, Xiao-Ying; Zhang, Guang-Yun; Li, Qing-Pu; Xu, Xiao-Yu; Cai, Tao

    2016-09-01

    In the Yunnan province of China, 18 counties in six prefectures border Myanmar. Due to its particular combination of geographic features, climate conditions, and cultural landscape, the area provides a suitable environment for the spread of insect-borne diseases such as malaria. In five identified Myanmar Special Regions along the China-Myanmar border, economic development is lagging, people live in extreme poverty, and the healthcare system is fragile. Coupled with political and other reasons, this precludes malaria control work to be effectively carried out in Myanmar, resulting in a heavy burden of the disease. Frequent population movements and favorable conditions for malaria transmission on the border fuel difficulties in controlling and eliminating the spread of the disease in the area. To reduce the prevalence of malaria in the China-Myanmar border area and improve healthcare services for local residents in this particular environment, Health Poverty Action (HPA) has provided malaria aid in the area since the beginning of 2006, as a sub-recipient of the China Global Fund Malaria Programs. In this case study, we examined HPA's activities as part of its malaria control programs in the area, analyzed and summarized the effectiveness and impact of the cross-border healthcare model as implemented by non-governmental organizations, and put forward suggestions for cross-border health aid models and for the prevention of malaria transmission in the Greater Mekong Subregion. HPA had carried out a great quantity of successful malaria control activities in border areas between China and Myanmar, strengthened the partnership and established the collaboration, coordination and cooperation channels among stakeholders. HPA has laid good groundwork and developed its valuable model that could be highlighted and referenced.

  7. Evaluation of an artificial intelligence program for estimating occupational exposures.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Karen L; Phillips, Margaret L; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hall, Thomas A

    2005-03-01

    Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure (EASE) is an artificial intelligence program developed by UK's Health and Safety Executive to assess exposure. EASE computes estimated airborne concentrations based on a substance's vapor pressure and the types of controls in the work area. Though EASE is intended only to make broad predictions of exposure from occupational environments, some occupational hygienists might attempt to use EASE for individual exposure characterizations. This study investigated whether EASE would accurately predict actual sampling results from a chemical manufacturing process. Personal breathing zone time-weighted average (TWA) monitoring data for two volatile organic chemicals--a common solvent (toluene) and a specialty monomer (chloroprene)--present in this manufacturing process were compared to EASE-generated estimates. EASE-estimated concentrations for specific tasks were weighted by task durations reported in the monitoring record to yield TWA estimates from EASE that could be directly compared to the measured TWA data. Two hundred and six chloroprene and toluene full-shift personal samples were selected from eight areas of this manufacturing process. The Spearman correlation between EASE TWA estimates and measured TWA values was 0.55 for chloroprene and 0.44 for toluene, indicating moderate predictive values for both compounds. For toluene, the interquartile range of EASE estimates at least partially overlapped the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in all process areas. The interquartile range of EASE estimates for chloroprene fell above the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in one process area, partially overlapped the third quartile of the measured data in five process areas and fell within the interquartile range in two process areas. EASE is not a substitute for actual exposure monitoring. However, EASE can be used in conditions that cannot otherwise be sampled and in preliminary

  8. Malaria Treatment (United States)

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov Malaria Treatment (United States) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Treatment of Malaria: Guidelines For Clinicians (United States) Download PDF version ...

  9. Malaria and Travelers

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov Malaria and Travelers Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... may be at risk for infection. Determine if malaria transmission occurs at the destinations Obtain a detailed ...

  10. Malaria Pathogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Louis H.; Good, Michael F.; Milon, Genevieve

    1994-06-01

    Malaria is a disease caused by repeated cycles of growth of the parasite Plasmodium in the erythrocyte. Various cellular and molecular strategies allow the parasite to evade the human immune response for many cycles of parasite multiplication. Under certain circumstances Plasmodium infection causes severe anemia or cerebral malaria; the expression of disease is influenced by both parasite and host factors, as exemplified by the exacerbation of disease during pregnancy. This article provides an overview of malaria pathogenesis, synthesizing the recent field, laboratory, and epidemiological data that will lead to the development of strategies to reduce mortality and morbidity.

  11. Practical Implications of the Non-Linear Relationship between the Test Positivity Rate and Malaria Incidence.

    PubMed

    Boyce, Ross M; Reyes, Raquel; Matte, Michael; Ntaro, Moses; Mulogo, Edgar; Lin, Feng-Chang; Siedner, Mark J

    2016-01-01

    The test positivity rate (TPR), defined as the number of laboratory-confirmed malaria tests per 100 suspected cases examined, is widely used by malaria surveillance programs as one of several key indicators of temporal trends in malaria incidence. However, there have been few studies using empiric data to examine the quantitative nature of this relationship. To characterize the relationship between the test positivity rate and the incidence of malaria, we fit regression models using the confirmed malaria case rate as the outcome of interest and TPR as the predictor of interest. We varied the relationship between the two by alternating linear and polynomial terms for TPR, and compared the goodness of fit of each model. A total of 7,668 encounters for malaria diagnostic testing were recorded over the study period within a catchment area of 25,617 persons. The semi-annual TPR ranged from 4.5% to 59% and the case rates ranged from 0.5 to 560 per 1,000 persons. The best fitting model was an exponential growth model (R2 = 0.80, AIC = 637). At low transmission levels (TPR<10%), the correlation between TPR and CMCR was poor, with large reductions in the TPR, for example from 10% to 1%, was associated with a minimal change in the CMCR (3.9 to 1.7 cases per 1,000 persons). At higher transmission levels, the exponential relationship made relatively small changes in TPR suggestive of sizeable change in estimated malaria incidence, suggesting that TPR remains a valuable surveillance indicator in such settings. The TPR and the confirmed malaria case rate have a non-linear relationship, which is likely to have important implications for malaria surveillance programs, especially at the extremes of transmission.

  12. Estimated emission reductions from California's enhanced Smog Check program.

    PubMed

    Singer, Brett C; Wenzel, Thomas P

    2003-06-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that states evaluate the effectiveness of their vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. This study demonstrates an evaluation approach that estimates mass emission reductions over time and includes the effect of I/M on vehicle deterioration. It includes a quantitative assessment of benefits from pre-inspection maintenance and repairs and accounts for the selection bias effect that occurs when intermittent high emitters are tested. We report estimates of one-cycle emission benefits of California's Enhanced Smog Check program, ca. 1999. Program benefits equivalent to metric tons per day of prevented emissions were calculated with a "bottom-up" approach that combined average per vehicle reductions in mass emission rates (g/gal) with average per vehicle activity, resolved by model year. Accelerated simulation mode test data from the statewide vehicle information database (VID) and from roadside Smog Check testing were used to determine 2-yr emission profiles of vehicles passing through Smog Check and infer emission profiles that would occur without Smog Check. The number of vehicles participating in Smog Check was also determined from the VID. We estimate that in 1999 Smog Check reduced tailpipe emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) by 97, 1690, and 81 t/d, respectively. These correspond to 26, 34, and 14% of the HC, CO, and NO(x) that would have been emitted by vehicles in the absence of Smog Check. These estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions about vehicle deterioration in the absence of Smog Check. Considering the estimated uncertainty in these assumptions yields a range for calculated benefits: 46-128 t/d of HC, 860-2200 t/d of CO, and 60-91 t/d of NO(x). Repair of vehicles that failed an initial, official Smog Check appears to be the most important mechanism of emission reductions, but pre-inspection maintenance and repair also contributed substantially. Benefits from removal of nonpassing

  13. Accuracy of the health information system on malaria surveillance in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Erhart, A; Thang, N D; Xa, N X; Thieu, N Q; Hung, L X; Hung, N Q; Nam, N V; Toi, L V; Tung, N M; Bien, T H; Tuy, T Q; Cong, L D; Thuan, L K; Coosemans, M; D'Alessandro, U

    2007-03-01

    The health information system (HIS) is a key component of control programs and its accuracy is necessary for the assessment of disease risks, the formulation of priorities and the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of different interventions. In order to assess the quality of the HIS in estimating malaria morbidity in Vietnam, we compared data obtained by a 2-year active (ACD) and passive case detection (PCD) study with those routinely collected at the local commune health centres (CHC) at three sites having different malaria epidemiology. The majority of malaria cases (80-95%) detected by ACD were missed by the HIS. Similarly, most malaria cases (50-90%) detected by PCD were also missed by the HIS, and this was proportional to the number of active private practitioners. Reasons for this low sensitivity are low CHC attendance, high attendance at private health facilities, widespread self-medication and attendance at central health facilities. In conclusion, although malaria has sharply decreased in Vietnam over the past 10 years, the current HIS greatly underestimates the malaria burden. Involvement of the private sector and the establishment of sentinel sites might improve the quality of data and the relevance of HIS in malaria control.

  14. Rationalizing historical successes of malaria control in Africa in terms of mosquito resource availability management.

    PubMed

    Killeen, Gerry F; Seyoum, Aklilu; Knols, Bart G J

    2004-08-01

    Environmental management of mosquito resources is a promising approach with which to control malaria, but it has seen little application in Africa for more than half a century. Here we present a kinetic model of mosquito foraging for aquatic habitats and vertebrate hosts that allows estimation of malaria transmission intensity by defining the availability of these resources as the rate at which individual mosquitoes encounter and use them. The model captures historically observed responses of malaria transmission to environmental change, highlights important gaps in current understanding of vector ecology, and suggests convenient solutions. Resource availability is an intuitive concept that provides an adaptable framework for models of mosquito population dynamics, gene flow, and pathogen transmission that can be conveniently parameterized with direct field measurements. Furthermore, the model presented predicts that drastic reductions of malaria transmission are possible with environmental management and elucidates an ecologic basis for previous successes of integrated malaria control in Africa before the advent of DDT or chloroquine. Environmental management for malaria control requires specialist skills that are currently lacking in sub-Saharan Africa where they are needed most. Infrastructure and human capacity building in clinical, public health, and environmental disciplines should therefore be prioritized so that growing financial support for tackling malaria can be translated into truly integrated control programs.

  15. The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

    2007-01-01

    The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals

  16. Efficiency of Nested-PCR in Detecting Asymptomatic Cases toward Malaria Elimination Program in an Endemic Area of Iran

    PubMed Central

    TURKI, Habibollah; RAEISI, Ahmad; MALEKZADEH, Kianoosh; GHANBARNEJAD, Amin; ZOGHI, Samaneh; YERYAN, Masoud; ABEDI NEJAD, Masoumeh; MOHSENI, Fatemeh; SHEKARI, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to detect low parasite and asymptomatic malaria infections by means of three malaria diagnostic tests, in a low transmission region of Minab district, Hormozgan Province, southern Iran. Methods: Blood samples of 200 healthy volunteers from Bagh-e-Malek area were evaluated using microscopic, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and nested-PCR to inspect malaria parasite. Results: The results showed no Plasmodium parasite in subjects by means of microscopy and RDT. However, 3 P. vivax positive samples (1.5%) were discovered by Nested-PCR while microscopy and RDT missed the cases. Conclusion: Microscopy as the gold standard method and RDT correctly identified 98.5% of cases, and molecular analysis is sensitive and reliable, especially in the detection of “asymptomatic” infections for active case surveillance. Regarding the existence of asymptomatic malaria in endemic area of Hormozgan, Iran, nested-PCR could be considered as a sensitive tool to interrupt malaria transmission in the country, beside the microscopic and RDT methods. PMID:25904944

  17. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-01

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.

  18. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics.

    PubMed

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-21

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.

  19. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  20. Reliability estimation procedures and CARE: The Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, F. P.

    1971-01-01

    Ultrareliable fault-tolerant onboard digital systems for spacecraft intended for long mission life exploration of the outer planets are under development. The design of systems involving self-repair and fault-tolerance leads to the companion problem of quantifying and evaluating the survival probability of the system for the mission under consideration and the constraints imposed upon the system. Methods have been developed to (1) model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations; (2) compute survival probability, mean life, and many other reliability predictive functions with respect to various systems and mission parameters; (3) perform sensitivity analysis of the system with respect to mission parameters; and (4) quantitatively compare competitive fault-tolerant systems. Various measures of comparison are offered. To automate the procedures of reliability mathematical modeling and evaluation, the CARE (computer-aided reliability estimation) program was developed. CARE is an interactive program residing on the UNIVAC 1108 system, which makes the above calculations and facilitates report preparation by providing output in tabular form, graphical 2-dimensional plots, and 3-dimensional projections. The reliability estimation of fault-tolerant organization by means of the CARE program is described.

  1. Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald; Lee, David; Gribko, Joana; Glaser, Bonnie

    1999-01-01

    This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

  2. Malaria successes and challenges in Asia.

    PubMed

    Bhatia, Rajesh; Rastogi, Rakesh Mani; Ortega, Leonard

    2013-12-01

    Asia ranks second to Africa in terms of malaria burden. In 19 countries of Asia, malaria is endemic and 2.31 billion people or 62% of the total population in these countries are at risk of malaria. In 2010, WHO estimated around 34.8 million cases and 45,600 deaths due to malaria in Asia. In 2011, 2.7 million cases and > 2000 deaths were reported. India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan are responsible for >85% of the reported cases (confirmed) and deaths in Asia. In last 10 yr, due to availability of donor's fund specially from Global fund, significant progress has been made by the countries in Asia in scaling-up malaria control interventions which were instrumental in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality significantly. There is a large heterogeneity in malaria epidemiology in Asia. As a result, the success in malaria control/elimination is also diverse. As compared to the data of the year 2000, out of 19 malaria endemic countries, 12 countries were able to reduce malaria incidence (microscopically confirmed cases only) by 75%. Two countries, namely Bangladesh and Malaysia are projected to reach 75% reduction by 2015 while India is projected to reach 50-75% only by 2015. The trend could not be assessed in four countries, namely Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste due to insufficient consistent data. Numerous key challenges need to be addressed to sustain the gains and eliminate malaria in most parts of Asia. Some of these are to control the spread of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinin, control of outdoor transmission, control of vivax malaria and ensuring universal coverage of key interventions. Asia has the potential to influence the malaria epidemiology all over the world as well as to support the global efforts in controlling and eliminating malaria through production of quality-assured ACTs, RDTs and long-lasting insecticidal nets.

  3. False positive circumsporozoite protein ELISA: a challenge for the estimation of the entomological inoculation rate of malaria and for vector incrimination

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) is an important indicator in estimating malaria transmission and the impact of vector control. To assess the EIR, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) is increasingly used. However, several studies have reported false positive results in this ELISA. The false positive results could lead to an overestimation of the EIR. The aim of present study was to estimate the level of false positivity among different anopheline species in Cambodia and Vietnam and to check for the presence of other parasites that might interact with the anti-CSP monoclonal antibodies. Methods Mosquitoes collected in Cambodia and Vietnam were identified and tested for the presence of sporozoites in head and thorax by using CSP-ELISA. ELISA positive samples were confirmed by a Plasmodium specific PCR. False positive mosquitoes were checked by PCR for the presence of parasites belonging to the Haemosporidia, Trypanosomatidae, Piroplasmida, and Haemogregarines. The heat-stability and the presence of the cross-reacting antigen in the abdomen of the mosquitoes were also checked. Results Specimens (N = 16,160) of seven anopheline species were tested by CSP-ELISA for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (Pv210 and Pv247). Two new vector species were identified for the region: Anopheles pampanai (P. vivax) and Anopheles barbirostris (Plasmodium malariae). In 88% (155/176) of the mosquitoes found positive with the P. falciparum CSP-ELISA, the presence of Plasmodium sporozoites could not be confirmed by PCR. This percentage was much lower (28% or 5/18) for P. vivax CSP-ELISAs. False positive CSP-ELISA results were associated with zoophilic mosquito species. None of the targeted parasites could be detected in these CSP-ELISA false positive mosquitoes. The ELISA reacting antigen of P. falciparum was heat-stable in CSP-ELISA true positive specimens, but not in the false positives. The heat

  4. Blind deconvolution estimation of fluorescence measurements through quadratic programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campos-Delgado, Daniel U.; Gutierrez-Navarro, Omar; Arce-Santana, Edgar R.; Skala, Melissa C.; Walsh, Alex J.; Jo, Javier A.

    2015-07-01

    Time-deconvolution of the instrument response from fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) data is usually necessary for accurate fluorescence lifetime estimation. In many applications, however, the instrument response is not available. In such cases, a blind deconvolution approach is required. An iterative methodology is proposed to address the blind deconvolution problem departing from a dataset of FLIM measurements. A linear combination of a base conformed by Laguerre functions models the fluorescence impulse response of the sample at each spatial point in our formulation. Our blind deconvolution estimation (BDE) algorithm is formulated as a quadratic approximation problem, where the decision variables are the samples of the instrument response and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions. In the approximation cost function, there is a bilinear dependence on the decision variables. Hence, due to the nonlinear nature of the estimation process, an alternating least-squares scheme iteratively solves the approximation problem. Our proposal searches for the samples of the instrument response with a global perspective, and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions locally at each spatial point. First, the iterative methodology relies on a least-squares solution for the instrument response, and quadratic programming for the scaling coefficients applied just to a subset of the measured fluorescence decays to initially estimate the instrument response to speed up the convergence. After convergence, the final stage computes the fluorescence impulse response at all spatial points. A comprehensive validation stage considers synthetic and experimental FLIM datasets of ex vivo atherosclerotic plaques and human breast cancer cell samples that highlight the advantages of the proposed BDE algorithm under different noise and initial conditions in the iterative scheme and parameters of the proposal.

  5. Blind deconvolution estimation of fluorescence measurements through quadratic programming.

    PubMed

    Campos-Delgado, Daniel U; Gutierrez-Navarro, Omar; Arce-Santana, Edgar R; Skala, Melissa C; Walsh, Alex J; Jo, Javier A

    2015-07-01

    Time-deconvolution of the instrument response from fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) data is usually necessary for accurate fluorescence lifetime estimation. In many applications, however, the instrument response is not available. In such cases, a blind deconvolution approach is required. An iterative methodology is proposed to address the blind deconvolution problem departing from a dataset of FLIM measurements. A linear combination of a base conformed by Laguerre functions models the fluorescence impulse response of the sample at each spatial point in our formulation. Our blind deconvolution estimation (BDE) algorithm is formulated as a quadratic approximation problem, where the decision variables are the samples of the instrument response and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions. In the approximation cost function, there is a bilinear dependence on the decision variables. Hence, due to the nonlinear nature of the estimation process, an alternating least-squares scheme iteratively solves the approximation problem. Our proposal searches for the samples of the instrument response with a global perspective, and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions locally at each spatial point. First, the iterative methodology relies on a least-squares solution for the instrument response, and quadratic programming for the scaling coefficients applied just to a subset of the measured fluorescence decays to initially estimate the instrument response to speed up the convergence. After convergence, the final stage computes the fluorescence impulse response at all spatial points. A comprehensive validation stage considers synthetic and experimental FLIM datasets of ex vivo atherosclerotic plaques and human breast cancer cell samples that highlight the advantages of the proposed BDE algorithm under different noise and initial conditions in the iterative scheme and parameters of the proposal.

  6. Hemozoin detection may provide an inexpensive, sensitive, 1-minute malaria test that could revolutionize malaria screening

    PubMed Central

    Grimberg, Brian T.; Grimberg, Kerry O.

    2016-01-01

    Malaria remains widespread throughout the tropics and is a burden to the estimated 3.5 billion people who are exposed annually. The lack of a fast and accurate diagnostic method contributes to preventable malaria deaths and its continued transmission. In many areas diagnosis is made solely based on clinical presentation. Current methods for malaria diagnosis take more than 20 minutes from the time blood is drawn and are frequently inaccurate. The introduction of an accurate malaria diagnostic that can provide a result in less than 1 minute would allow for widespread screening and treatment of endemic populations, and enable regions that have gained a foothold against malaria to prevent its return. Using malaria parasites’ waste product, hemozoin, as a biomarker for the presence of malaria could be the tool needed to develop this rapid test. PMID:27530228

  7. Houston Operations Predictor/Estimator (HOPE) programming manual, volume 1. [Apollo orbit determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daly, J. K.

    1974-01-01

    The programming techniques used to implement the equations and mathematical techniques of the Houston Operations Predictor/Estimator (HOPE) orbit determination program on the UNIVAC 1108 computer are described. Detailed descriptions are given of the program structure, the internal program structure, the internal program tables and program COMMON, modification and maintainence techniques, and individual subroutine documentation.

  8. Oxidative Stress in Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Percário, Sandro; Moreira, Danilo R.; Gomes, Bruno A. Q.; Ferreira, Michelli E. S.; Gonçalves, Ana Carolina M.; Laurindo, Paula S. O. C.; Vilhena, Thyago C.; Dolabela, Maria F.; Green, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a significant public health problem in more than 100 countries and causes an estimated 200 million new infections every year. Despite the significant effort to eradicate this dangerous disease, lack of complete knowledge of its physiopathology compromises the success in this enterprise. In this paper we review oxidative stress mechanisms involved in the disease and discuss the potential benefits of antioxidant supplementation as an adjuvant antimalarial strategy. PMID:23208374

  9. Challenges for malaria elimination in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Marcelo U; Castro, Marcia C

    2016-05-20

    Brazil currently contributes 42 % of all malaria cases reported in the Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where major progress towards malaria elimination has been achieved in recent years. In 2014, malaria burden in Brazil (143,910 microscopically confirmed cases and 41 malaria-related deaths) has reached its lowest levels in 35 years, Plasmodium falciparum is highly focal, and the geographic boundary of transmission has considerably shrunk. Transmission in Brazil remains entrenched in the Amazon Basin, which accounts for 99.5 % of the country's malaria burden. This paper reviews major lessons learned from past and current malaria control policies in Brazil. A comprehensive discussion of the scientific and logistic challenges that may impact malaria elimination efforts in the country is presented in light of the launching of the Plan for Elimination of Malaria in Brazil in November 2015. Challenges for malaria elimination addressed include the high prevalence of symptomless and submicroscopic infections, emerging anti-malarial drug resistance in P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and the lack of safe anti-relapse drugs, the largely neglected burden of malaria in pregnancy, the need for better vector control strategies where Anopheles mosquitoes present a highly variable biting behaviour, human movement, the need for effective surveillance and tools to identify foci of infection in areas with low transmission, and the effects of environmental changes and climatic variability in transmission. Control actions launched in Brazil and results to come are likely to influence control programs in other countries in the Americas.

  10. Adult and child malaria mortality in India

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Neeraj; Jha, Prabhat; Sharma, Vinod P; Cohen, Alan A; Jotkar, Raju M; Rodriguez, Peter S; Bassani, Diego G; Suraweera, Wilson; Laxminaryan, Ramanan; Peto, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Summary Background Malaria, a non-fatal disease if detected promptly and treated properly, still causes many deaths in malaria-endemic countries with limited healthcare facilities. National malaria mortality rates are, however, particularly difficult to assess reliably in such countries, as any fevers reliably diagnosed as malaria are likely therefore to be cured. Hence, most malaria deaths are from undiagnosed malaria, which may be misattributed in retrospective enquiries to other febrile causes of death, or vice-versa. Aim To estimate plausible ranges of malaria mortality in India, the most populous country where it remains common. Methods Nationally representative retrospective study of 122,000 deaths during 2001-03 in 6671 areas. Full-time non-medical field workers interviewed families or other respondents about each death, obtaining a half-page narrative plus answers to specific questions about the severity and course of any fevers. Each field report was scanned and emailed to two of 130 trained physicians, who independently coded underlying causes, with discrepancies resolved either via anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, adjudication. Findings Of all coded deaths at ages 1 month to 70 years, 3.6% (2681/75,342) were attributed to malaria. Of these, 2419 (90%) were rural and 2311 (86%) were not in any healthcare facility. Malaria-attributed death rates correlated geographically with local malaria transmission rates derived independently from the Indian malaria control programme, and rose after the wet season began. The adjudicated results suggest 205,000 malaria deaths per year in India before age 70 (55,000 in early childhood, 30,000 at ages 5-14, 120,000 at ages 15-69); cumulative probability 1.8% of death from malaria before age 70. Plausible upper and lower bounds (based only on the initial coding) were 125,000 to 277,000. Interpretation Despite inevitable uncertainty as to which unattended febrile deaths are from malaria, even the lower bound

  11. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  12. Mass drug administration for malaria

    PubMed Central

    Poirot, Eugenie; Skarbinski, Jacek; Sinclair, David; Kachur, S Patrick; Slutsker, Laurence; Hwang, Jimee

    2013-01-01

    Background Mass drug administration (MDA), defined as the empiric administration of a therapeutic antimalarial regimen to an entire population at the same time, has been a historic component of many malaria control and elimination programmes, but is not currently recommended. With renewed interest in MDA and its role in malaria elimination, this review aims to summarize the findings from existing research studies and program experiences of MDA strategies for reducing malaria burden and transmission. Objectives To assess the impact of antimalarial MDA on population asexual parasitaemia prevalence, parasitaemia incidence, gametocytaemia prevalence, anaemia prevalence, mortality and MDA-associated adverse events. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Infectious Disease Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE+, EMBASE, to February 2013. We also searched CABS Abstracts, LILACS, reference lists, and recent conference proceedings. Selection criteria Cluster-randomized trials and non-randomized controlled studies comparing therapeutic MDA versus placebo or no MDA, and uncontrolled before-and-after studies comparing post-MDA to baseline data were selected. Studies administering intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) to sub-populations (for example, pregnant women, children or infants) were excluded. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently reviewed studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Studies were stratified by study design and then subgrouped by endemicity, by co-administration of 8-aminoquinoline plus schizonticide drugs and by plasmodium species. The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Main results Two cluster-randomized trials, eight non-randomized controlled studies and 22 uncontrolled before-and-after studies are included in this review. Twenty-two studies (29 comparisons) compared MDA to placebo or no intervention of which two comparisons were

  13. Improving statistical inference on pathogen densities estimated by quantitative molecular methods: malaria gametocytaemia as a case study.

    PubMed

    Walker, Martin; Basáñez, María-Gloria; Ouédraogo, André Lin; Hermsen, Cornelus; Bousema, Teun; Churcher, Thomas S

    2015-01-16

    Quantitative molecular methods (QMMs) such as quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (q-PCR), reverse-transcriptase PCR (qRT-PCR) and quantitative nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA) are increasingly used to estimate pathogen density in a variety of clinical and epidemiological contexts. These methods are often classified as semi-quantitative, yet estimates of reliability or sensitivity are seldom reported. Here, a statistical framework is developed for assessing the reliability (uncertainty) of pathogen densities estimated using QMMs and the associated diagnostic sensitivity. The method is illustrated with quantification of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytaemia by QT-NASBA. The reliability of pathogen (e.g. gametocyte) densities, and the accompanying diagnostic sensitivity, estimated by two contrasting statistical calibration techniques, are compared; a traditional method and a mixed model Bayesian approach. The latter accounts for statistical dependence of QMM assays run under identical laboratory protocols and permits structural modelling of experimental measurements, allowing precision to vary with pathogen density. Traditional calibration cannot account for inter-assay variability arising from imperfect QMMs and generates estimates of pathogen density that have poor reliability, are variable among assays and inaccurately reflect diagnostic sensitivity. The Bayesian mixed model approach assimilates information from replica QMM assays, improving reliability and inter-assay homogeneity, providing an accurate appraisal of quantitative and diagnostic performance. Bayesian mixed model statistical calibration supersedes traditional techniques in the context of QMM-derived estimates of pathogen density, offering the potential to improve substantially the depth and quality of clinical and epidemiological inference for a wide variety of pathogens.

  14. Hidden burden of malaria in Indian women

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Malaria is endemic in India with an estimated 70-100 million cases each year (1.6-1.8 million reported by NVBDCP); of this 50-55% are Plasmodium vivax and 45-50% Plasmodium falciparum. A recent study on malaria in pregnancy reported from undivided Madhya Pradesh state (includes Chhattisgarh state), that an estimated over 220,000 pregnant women contract malaria infection each year. Malaria in pregnancy caused- abortions 34.5%; stillbirths 9%; and maternal deaths 0.45%. Bulk of this tragic outcome can be averted by following the Roll Back Malaria/WHO recommendations of the use of malaria prevention i.e. indoor residual spraying (IRS)/insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) preferably long-lasting treated bed nets (LLIN); intermittent preventive therapy (IPT); early diagnosis, prompt and complete treatment using microscopic/malaria rapid diagnostics test (RDT) and case management. High incidence in pregnancy has arisen because of malaria surveillance lacking coverage, lack of age and sex wise data, staff shortages, and intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) applicable in high transmission states/pockets is not included in the national drug policy- an essential component of fighting malaria in pregnancy in African settings. Inadequate surveillance and gross under-reporting has been highlighted time and again for over three decades. As a result the huge problem of malaria in pregnancy reported occasionally by researchers has remained hidden. Malaria in pregnancy may quicken severity in patients with drug resistant parasites, anaemia, endemic poverty, and malnutrition. There is, therefore, urgent need to streamline malaria control strategies to make a difference in tackling this grim scenario in human health. PMID:19995437

  15. Identification of hot spots of malaria transmission for targeted malaria control.

    PubMed

    Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Gesase, Samwel; Hashim, Ramadhan; Magesa, Stephen; Mosha, Frank; Otieno, Silas; Carneiro, Ilona; Cox, Jonathan; Msuya, Eliapendavyo; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Maxwell, Caroline; Greenwood, Brian; Riley, Eleanor; Sauerwein, Robert; Chandramohan, Daniel; Gosling, Roly

    2010-06-01

    Variation in the risk of malaria within populations is a frequently described but poorly understood phenomenon. This heterogeneity creates opportunities for targeted interventions but only if hot spots of malaria transmission can be easily identified. We determined spatial patterns in malaria transmission in a district in northeastern Tanzania, using malaria incidence data from a cohort study involving infants and household-level mosquito sampling data. The parasite prevalence rates and age-specific seroconversion rates (SCRs) of antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum antigens were determined in samples obtained from people attending health care facilities. Five clusters of higher malaria incidence were detected and interpreted as hot spots of transmission. These hot spots partially overlapped with clusters of higher mosquito exposure but could not be satisfactorily predicted by a probability model based on environmental factors. Small-scale local variation in malaria exposure was detected by parasite prevalence rates and SCR estimates for samples of health care facility attendees. SCR estimates were strongly associated with local malaria incidence rates and predicted hot spots of malaria transmission with 95% sensitivity and 85% specificity. Serological markers were able to detect spatial variation in malaria transmission at the microepidemiological level, and they have the potential to form an effective method for spatial targeting of malaria control efforts.

  16. Bead-based immunoassay allows sub-picogram detection of histidine-rich protein 2 from Plasmodium falciparum and estimates reliability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests.

    PubMed

    Rogier, Eric; Plucinski, Mateusz; Lucchi, Naomi; Mace, Kimberly; Chang, Michelle; Lemoine, Jean Frantz; Candrinho, Baltazar; Colborn, James; Dimbu, Rafael; Fortes, Filomeno; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Barnwell, John

    2017-01-01

    Detection of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) from the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum provides evidence for active or recent infection, and is utilized for both diagnostic and surveillance purposes, but current laboratory immunoassays for HRP2 are hindered by low sensitivities and high costs. Here we present a new HRP2 immunoassay based on antigen capture through a bead-based system capable of detecting HRP2 at sub-picogram levels. The assay is highly specific and cost-effective, allowing fast processing and screening of large numbers of samples. We utilized the assay to assess results of HRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in different P. falciparum transmission settings, generating estimates for true performance in the field. Through this method of external validation, HRP2 RDTs were found to perform well in the high-endemic areas of Mozambique and Angola with 86.4% and 73.9% of persons with HRP2 in their blood testing positive by RDTs, respectively, and false-positive rates of 4.3% and 0.5%. However, in the low-endemic setting of Haiti, only 14.5% of persons found to be HRP2 positive by the bead assay were RDT positive. Additionally, 62.5% of Haitians showing a positive RDT test had no detectable HRP2 by the bead assay, likely indicating that these were false positive tests. In addition to RDT validation, HRP2 biomass was assessed for the populations in these different settings, and may provide an additional metric by which to estimate P. falciparum transmission intensity and measure the impact of interventions.

  17. Bead-based immunoassay allows sub-picogram detection of histidine-rich protein 2 from Plasmodium falciparum and estimates reliability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

    PubMed Central

    Rogier, Eric; Plucinski, Mateusz; Lucchi, Naomi; Mace, Kimberly; Chang, Michelle; Lemoine, Jean Frantz; Candrinho, Baltazar; Colborn, James; Dimbu, Rafael; Fortes, Filomeno; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Barnwell, John

    2017-01-01

    Detection of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) from the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum provides evidence for active or recent infection, and is utilized for both diagnostic and surveillance purposes, but current laboratory immunoassays for HRP2 are hindered by low sensitivities and high costs. Here we present a new HRP2 immunoassay based on antigen capture through a bead-based system capable of detecting HRP2 at sub-picogram levels. The assay is highly specific and cost-effective, allowing fast processing and screening of large numbers of samples. We utilized the assay to assess results of HRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in different P. falciparum transmission settings, generating estimates for true performance in the field. Through this method of external validation, HRP2 RDTs were found to perform well in the high-endemic areas of Mozambique and Angola with 86.4% and 73.9% of persons with HRP2 in their blood testing positive by RDTs, respectively, and false-positive rates of 4.3% and 0.5%. However, in the low-endemic setting of Haiti, only 14.5% of persons found to be HRP2 positive by the bead assay were RDT positive. Additionally, 62.5% of Haitians showing a positive RDT test had no detectable HRP2 by the bead assay, likely indicating that these were false positive tests. In addition to RDT validation, HRP2 biomass was assessed for the populations in these different settings, and may provide an additional metric by which to estimate P. falciparum transmission intensity and measure the impact of interventions. PMID:28192523

  18. Cerebral Malaria.

    PubMed

    Marsden, P D; Bruce-Chwatt, L J

    1975-01-01

    Cerebral malaria is an acute diffuse encephalopathy associated only with Plasmodium falciparum. It is probably a consequence of the rapid proliferation of the parasites in the body of man in relation to red cell invasion, and results in stagnation of blood flow in cerebralcapillaries with thromobotic occlusion of large numbers of cerebral capillaries. The subsequent cerebral pathology is cerebral infarction with haemorrhage and cerebral oedema. The wide prevalence of P. falciparum in highly endemic areas results in daily challenges to patients from several infected mosquitoes. It is thus important to understand the characteristics of P. falciparum, since this is one of the most important protozoan parasites of man and severe infection from it constitutes one of the few real clinical emergencies in tropical medicine. One of the more important aspects of the practice of medicine in the tropics is to establish a good understanding of the pattern of medical practice in that area. This applies to malaria as well as to other diseases. The neophyte might be somewhat surprised to learn, for example that an experienced colleague who lives in a holoendemic malarious area such as West Africa, sees no cerebral malaria. But the explanation is simple when the doctor concerned has a practice which involves treating adults only. Cerebral malaria is rare in adults, because in highly endemic areas, by the age of 1 year most of the infants in a group under study have already experienced their first falciparum infection. By the time they reach adult life, they have a solid immunity against severe falciparum infections. In fact, "clinical malaria" could occur in such a group under only two circumstances: 1) in pregnancy, a patent infection with P. falciparum might develop, probably due to an IgG drain across the placenta to the foetus;2) in an individual who has constantly taken antimalarials and who may have an immunity at such a low level that when antimalarial therapy is interrupted

  19. Automated Estimating System (AES), Standard Value Update Program, user`s manual

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, R.K.; Holder, D.A.

    1994-08-01

    This manual contains instructions for operating the Standard Value Update Program. This program is operated and controlled by selected individuals in the Estimating and Scheduling Engineering Department of the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Engineering Division. It is used to control and standardized input into the Automated Estimating System (AES) Estimating program, a person computer-based software package designed to aid in the creation, updating, and reporting of project cost estimates. The AES Estimating program is documented in a separate user`s manual.

  20. Malaria surveillance counts.

    PubMed

    Breman, Joel G; Holloway, Cherice N

    2007-12-01

    Clinical and epidemiologic surveillance of malaria cases and deaths is required to follow the progress of the reinvigorated malaria control programs nationally and internationally. Current recording, transmittal, analysis, feedback, and use of malaria surveillance information is delayed and imprecise: substantially < 10% of the malaria cases and deaths are being reported. Improvements are occurring, but more emphasis should be placed on prompt, accurate diagnosis, patient management, and recording of clinical manifestations at hospitals. Neurologic signs, severe anemia, metabolic changes, hyperparasitemia, and concurrent sepsis are medical emergencies and require proper clinical and laboratory detection; equipment, reagents, supervision, and certification of laboratorians and clinicians are necessary. Birth weight should also be a major measure of progress in malarial control and overall prenatal care. Although malaria is the most frequent diagnosis at outpatient clinics and hospitals in Africa, co-existing conditions also mandate improved diagnosis, treatment, and registration. Monthly transmittal of information from health units and collation, analysis and feedback through electronic reporting systems using modern information technologies are necessary for resource planning and staff motivation. Denominators to compute rates of illness and death require accurate censuses of communities from which patients come to health units: specialized disease and demographic household surveys designed and performed by nationals are needed to complement hospital-based numerator data. Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax should be distinguished in the laboratory; the former causes the greatest mortality but the latter is increasingly recognized as a major peril. Because vector control is now a major component of all malaria control programs, there is an urgent need to monitor anopheline sensitivity to insecticides and entomologic inoculation rates. Where interrupting transmission

  1. Estimating health effects of a regionwide residential weatherization program

    SciTech Connect

    Sandusky, W.F.; Cross, F.T.; Craig, R.A.; Parker, G.B.

    1983-07-01

    Quantitative estimates are made of the regionwide health effects due to exposure to increased indoor-pollutant concentrations of radon, formaldehyde and benzo-a-pyrene from a residential weatherization program to conserve energy by installing air infiltration-reduction measures. The quantitative methodology used assumed a no-threshold, linear relationship between health impact and pollutant concentrations (dose-response). A typical residence in this analysis is assumed to have a wood stove, a gas stove, a portable space heater (kerosene), one person who smokes, urea-formaldehyde foam insulation, well-water, and is built slab-on-grade, or with a basement, or with an unventilated crawl space. The complete tightening of all residences in the Pacific Northwest region (Oregon, Washington, Idaho, W. Montana) is expected to result in: about four additional lung cancers per year above the current level from exposure to elevated levels of radon; one additional cancer every four years above the current level for formaldehyde; and between four and five additional lung cancers above the current level from exposure to elevated levels of benzo-a-pyrene. Installing air-to-air heat exchangers after complete weatherization of residences could reduce the regionwide health effects from radon by about 50%. Eliminating residences with urea-formaldehyde foam insulation will only slightly reduce the regionwide health effects from formaldehyde. And reducing smoking and wood stove use could reduce the regionwide health effects from benzo-a-pyrene by about 50%.

  2. Malaria control in Tanzania

    SciTech Connect

    Yhdego, M.; Majura, P. )

    1988-01-01

    A review of the malaria control programs and the problem encountered in the United Republic of Tanzania since 1945 to the year 1986 is discussed. Buguruni, one of the squatter areas in the city of Dar es Salaam, is chosen as a case study in order to evaluate the economic advantage of engineering methods for the control of malaria infection. Although the initial capital cost of engineering methods may be high, the cost effectiveness requires a much lower financial burden of only about Tshs. 3 million compared with the conventional methods of larviciding and insecticiding which requires more than Tshs. 10 million. Finally, recommendations for the adoption of engineering methods are made concerning the upgrading of existing roads and footpaths in general with particular emphasis on drainage of large pools of water which serve as breeding sites for mosquitoes.

  3. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-12-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  4. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines

    PubMed Central

    Hoffman, Stephen L.; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L.; Duffy, Patrick E.

    2016-01-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  5. The march toward malaria vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-11-27

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  6. Towards seasonal forecasting of malaria in India.

    PubMed

    Lauderdale, Jonathan M; Caminade, Cyril; Heath, Andrew E; Jones, Anne E; MacLeod, David A; Gouda, Krushna C; Murty, Upadhyayula Suryanarayana; Goswami, Prashant; Mutheneni, Srinivasa R; Morse, Andrew P

    2014-08-10

    Malaria presents public health challenge despite extensive intervention campaigns. A 30-year hindcast of the climatic suitability for malaria transmission in India is presented, using meteorological variables from a state of the art seasonal forecast model to drive a process-based, dynamic disease model. The spatial distribution and seasonal cycles of temperature and precipitation from the forecast model are compared to three observationally-based meteorological datasets. These time series are then used to drive the disease model, producing a simulated forecast of malaria and three synthetic malaria time series that are qualitatively compared to contemporary and pre-intervention malaria estimates. The area under the Relative Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve is calculated as a quantitative metric of forecast skill, comparing the forecast to the meteorologically-driven synthetic malaria time series. The forecast shows probabilistic skill in predicting the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum incidence when compared to the simulated meteorologically-driven malaria time series, particularly where modelled incidence shows high seasonal and interannual variability such as in Orissa, West Bengal, and Jharkhand (North-east India), and Gujarat, Rajastan, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (North-west India). Focusing on these two regions, the malaria forecast is able to distinguish between years of "high", "above average" and "low" malaria incidence in the peak malaria transmission seasons, with more than 70% sensitivity and a statistically significant area under the ROC curve. These results are encouraging given that the three month forecast lead time used is well in excess of the target for early warning systems adopted by the World Health Organization. This approach could form the basis of an operational system to identify the probability of regional malaria epidemics, allowing advanced and targeted allocation of resources for combatting malaria in India.

  7. Cerebral malaria

    PubMed Central

    Newton, C.; Hien, T. T.; White, N.

    2000-01-01

    Cerebral malaria may be the most common non-traumatic encephalopathy in the world. The pathogenesis is heterogenous and the neurological complications are often part of a multisystem dysfunction. The clinical presentation and pathophysiology differs between adults and children. Recent studies have elucidated the molecular mechanisms of pathogenesis and raised possible interventions. Antimalarial drugs, however, remain the only intervention that unequivocally affects outcome, although increasing resistance to the established antimalarial drugs is of grave concern. Artemisinin derivatives have made an impact on treatment, but other drugs may be required. With appropriate antimalarial drugs, the prognosis of cerebral malaria often depends on the management of other complications—for example, renal failure and acidosis. Neurological sequelae are increasingly recognised, but further research on the pathogenesis of coma and neurological damage is required to develop other ancillary treatments.

 PMID:10990500

  8. Seeing, thinking and acting against Malaria: a new approach to health worker training for community empowerment in rural Gambia.

    PubMed

    Dawson, A J; Joof, B M

    2005-01-01

    In the Gambia, West Africa, Malaria is a major cause of death among children in rural areas. It has been estimated that in one division in the country malaria accounts for 40% of all deaths in children aged between one and 4 years. Most malaria cases are managed at home assisted by primary healthcare workers. The strategic plan of Gambia's National Malaria Control Programme includes improved training and supervision of all health care providers, at all levels, and increased community awareness in order to reduce the malaria burden by 50% before 2007. A malaria in-service training program for Community Health Nurses (CHNs) working at village level was piloted in 2004. The program includes a computer-based training (CBT) package, the first of its kind for health professionals in Gambia. The education program is part of a larger initiative funded by the Gates Malaria Partnership, that aims to increase community involvement in malaria control. The objective of the course is to enable CHNs to facilitate the change process. The curriculum was informed by a reference group and stakeholder input. Interviews and evaluation forms were used to gather information about learner experience and learning preferences. The CBT package was well received. Learners reported wanting more computer instruction, but felt they had gained confidence. There was resistance from other health professionals regarding the development of information technology skills in CHNs. This related to the perceived role and status of CHNs, as well as confidence in their ability. Some modifications of the CBT package were necessary, including the reworking of some activities and language. There are issues related to sustainability and resource implications that need to be addressed. Opportunities exist to expand e-learning in the Gambia for pre-service CHNs and other professionals. An investigation into the viability of reproducing this module as a generic planning tool for allied health workers and other

  9. Vivax malaria

    PubMed Central

    Price, Ric N; Tjitra, Emiliana; Guerra, Carlos A; Yeung, Shunmay; White, Nicholas J; Anstey, Nicholas M

    2009-01-01

    Plasmodium vivax threatens almost 40% of the world’s population, resulting in 132 - 391 million clinical infections each year. Most of these cases originate from South East Asia and the Western Pacific, although a significant number also occur in Africa and South America. Although often regarded as causing a benign and self-limiting infection, there is increasing evidence that the overall burden, economic impact and severity of disease from P. vivax have been underestimated. Malaria control strategies have had limited success and are confounded by the lack of access to reliable diagnosis, emergence of multidrug resistant isolates and the parasite’s ability to transmit early in the course of disease and relapse from dormant liver stages at varying time intervals after the initial infection. Progress in reducing the burden of disease will require improved access to reliable diagnosis and effective treatment of both blood-stage and latent parasites, and more detailed characterization of the epidemiology, morbidity and economic impact of vivax malaria. Without these, vivax malaria will continue to be neglected by ministries of health, policy makers, researchers and funding bodies. PMID:18165478

  10. Reduced order parameter estimation using quasilinearization and quadratic programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, Adam J.; Putti, Mario; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2012-06-01

    The ability of a particular model to accurately predict how a system responds to forcing is predicated on various model parameters that must be appropriately identified. There are many algorithms whose purpose is to solve this inverse problem, which is often computationally intensive. In this study, we propose a new algorithm that significantly reduces the computational burden associated with parameter identification. The algorithm is an extension of the quasilinearization approach where the governing system of differential equations is linearized with respect to the parameters. The resulting inverse problem therefore becomes a linear regression or quadratic programming problem (QP) for minimizing the sum of squared residuals; the solution becomes an update on the parameter set. This process of linearization and regression is repeated until convergence takes place. This algorithm has not received much attention, as the QPs can become quite large, often infeasible for real-world systems. To alleviate this drawback, proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to reduce the size of the linearized model, thereby reducing the computational burden of solving each QP. In fact, this study shows that the snapshots need only be calculated once at the very beginning of the algorithm, after which no further calculations of the reduced-model subspace are required. The proposed algorithm therefore only requires one linearized full-model run per parameter at the first iteration followed by a series of reduced-order QPs. The method is applied to a groundwater model with about 30,000 computation nodes where as many as 15 zones of hydraulic conductivity are estimated.

  11. User's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

    1980-01-01

    A user's manual for the FORTRAN IV computer program MMLE3 is described. It is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The theory and use of the program is described. The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program.

  12. Appendix J: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  13. Appendix H: Industrial Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  14. Appendix I: Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  15. Appendix E: Wind Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  16. Appendix D: Solar Energy Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  17. Appendix B: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  18. Appendix G: Building Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  19. Appendix F: FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  20. ESTIMATING INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR THE SITE PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the objectives of the EPA`s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1) That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated. 2) That the program will attempt to identify ...

  1. ESTIMATING INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR THE SITE PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the objectives of the EPA`s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1) That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated. 2) That the program will attempt to identify ...

  2. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  3. Malaria in Brazil: an overview

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Malaria is still a major public health problem in Brazil, with approximately 306 000 registered cases in 2009, but it is estimated that in the early 1940s, around six million cases of malaria occurred each year. As a result of the fight against the disease, the number of malaria cases decreased over the years and the smallest numbers of cases to-date were recorded in the 1960s. From the mid-1960s onwards, Brazil underwent a rapid and disorganized settlement process in the Amazon and this migratory movement led to a progressive increase in the number of reported cases. Although the main mosquito vector (Anopheles darlingi) is present in about 80% of the country, currently the incidence of malaria in Brazil is almost exclusively (99,8% of the cases) restricted to the region of the Amazon Basin, where a number of combined factors favors disease transmission and impair the use of standard control procedures. Plasmodium vivax accounts for 83,7% of registered cases, while Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for 16,3% and Plasmodium malariae is seldom observed. Although vivax malaria is thought to cause little mortality, compared to falciparum malaria, it accounts for much of the morbidity and for huge burdens on the prosperity of endemic communities. However, in the last few years a pattern of unusual clinical complications with fatal cases associated with P. vivax have been reported in Brazil and this is a matter of concern for Brazilian malariologists. In addition, the emergence of P. vivax strains resistant to chloroquine in some reports needs to be further investigated. In contrast, asymptomatic infection by P. falciparum and P. vivax has been detected in epidemiological studies in the states of Rondonia and Amazonas, indicating probably a pattern of clinical immunity in both autochthonous and migrant populations. Seropidemiological studies investigating the type of immune responses elicited in naturally-exposed populations to several malaria vaccine candidates in

  4. Malaria and Other Vector-Borne Infection Surveillance in the U.S. Department of Defense Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center-Global Program: Review of 2009 Accomplishments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-04

    uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in southern Cambodia. Malar J 2009, 8:10. 10. Dondorp AM, et al: Artemisinin resistance: current status and...species and malaria drug resistance phenotypes and nearly another 10,000 samples to determine the etiologies of non- Plasmodium species VBIs from regions...25 sites for Plasmodium species and malaria drug resistance phenotypes and nearly another 10,000 samples to determine the etiologies of non- Plasmodium

  5. Climate, environment and transmission of malaria.

    PubMed

    Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Zaramella, Marco; Caputo, Annamaria; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

    2016-06-01

    Malaria, the most common parasitic disease in the world, is transmitted to the human host by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. The transmission of malaria requires the interaction between the host, the vector and the parasite.The four species of parasites responsible for human malaria are Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium vivax. Occasionally humans can be infected by several simian species, like Plasmodium knowlesi, recognised as a major cause of human malaria in South-East Asia since 2004. While P. falciparum is responsible for most malaria cases, about 8% of estimated cases globally are caused by P. vivax. The different Plasmodia are not uniformly distributed although there are areas of species overlap. The life cycle of all species of human malaria parasites is characterised by an exogenous sexual phase in which multiplication occurs in several species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and an endogenous asexual phase in the vertebrate host. The time span required for mature oocyst development in the salivary glands is quite variable (7-30 days), characteristic of each species and influenced by ambient temperature. The vector Anopheles includes 465 formally recognised species. Approximately 70 of these species have the capacity to transmit Plasmodium spp. to humans and 41 are considered as dominant vector capable of transmitting malaria. The intensity of transmission is dependent on the vectorial capacity and competence of local mosquitoes. An efficient system for malaria transmission needs strong interaction between humans, the ecosystem and infected vectors. Global warming induced by human activities has increased the risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Recent decades have witnessed changes in the ecosystem and climate without precedent in human history although the emphasis in the role of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria has given way to predisposing conditions such as ecosystem changes, political

  6. SIT for African malaria vectors: Epilogue

    PubMed Central

    Townson, Harold

    2009-01-01

    As a result of increased support and the diligent application of new and conventional anti-malaria tools, significant reductions in malaria transmission are being accomplished. Historical and current evolutionary responses of vectors and parasites to malaria interventions demonstrate that it is unwise to assume that a limited suite of tools will remain effective indefinitely, thus efforts to develop new interventions should continue. This collection of manuscripts surveys the prospects and technical challenges for applying a novel tool, the sterile insect technique (SIT), against mosquitoes that transmit malaria. The method has been very successful against many agricultural pest insects in area-wide programs, but demonstrations against malaria vectors have not been sufficient to determine its potential relative to current alternatives, much of which will hinge ultimately upon cost. These manuscripts provide an overview of current efforts to develop SIT and identify key research issues that remain. PMID:19917071

  7. [Malaria--chemoprophylaxis 2001].

    PubMed

    Hatz, F R; Beck, B; Blum, J; Funk, M; Furrer, H; Genton, B; Holzer, B; Loutan, L; Markwalder, K; Raeber, P A; Schlagenhauf, P; Siegl, G; Steffen, R; Stürchler, D; Wyss, R

    2001-06-01

    An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 cases of imported malaria are annually diagnosed in industrialised countries. Some 700 of them concern Swiss travellers and foreign guests. Exposure prophylaxis and chemoprophylaxis for high risk destinations lower the risk of malarial disease. The latter is defined as regular intake of antimalarial drugs in subtherapeutic dosage in order to suppress the development of clinical disease. Drugs are usually taken from one week before travel until four weeks after return from an endemic area. Mefloquine, doxycycline, chloroquine plus proguanil, and presumably soon also atovaquone plus proguanil are available in Switzerland for chemoprophylaxis.

  8. A BASIC Microcomputer Program for Estimating Test Reliability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cobern, William W.

    This computer program, written in BASIC, performs three different calculations of test reliability: (1) the Kuder-Richardson method; (2); the "common split-half" method; and (3) the Rulon-Guttman split-half method. The program reads sequential access data files for microcomputers that have been set up by statistical packages such as…

  9. Evaluation Methodologies for Estimating the Likelihood of Program Implementation Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Durand, Roger; Decker, Phillip J.; Kirkman, Dorothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Despite our best efforts as evaluators, program implementation failures abound. A wide variety of valuable methodologies have been adopted to explain and evaluate the "why" of these failures. Yet, typically these methodologies have been employed concurrently (e.g., project monitoring) or to the post-hoc assessment of program activities.…

  10. Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Reiner, Robert C; Le Menach, Arnaud; Kunene, Simon; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Hsiang, Michelle S; Perkins, T Alex; Greenhouse, Bryan; Tatem, Andrew J; Cohen, Justin M; Smith, David L

    2015-01-01

    Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections. In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show ‘malariogenic potential’, a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.09520.001 PMID:26714110

  11. A stump-to-mill timber production cost-estimating program for cable logging eastern hardwoods

    Treesearch

    Chris B. LeDoux

    1987-01-01

    ECOST utilizes data from stand inventory, cruise data, and the logging plan for the tract in question. The program produces detailed stump-to-mill cost estimates for specific proposed timber sales. These estimates are then utilized, in combination with specific landowner objectives, to assess the economic feasibility of cable logging a given area. The program output is...

  12. Estimating clinical and economic impact in case management programs.

    PubMed

    Fetterolf, Donald; Holt, Albert E; Tucker, Travis; Khan, Nazmul

    2010-04-01

    Case management programs are commonly offered by health plans, hospitals, freestanding case management vendors, and others to various purchasers of these services. Case management programs are materially different from standard medical management or disease management programs in a number of ways. The patients have complex medical conditions combined with many other variables that tend to increase their costs and patterns of utilization. Purchasers of case management services frequently demand some form of performance guarantees as evidence that these case management programs are reducing utilization and medical costs. Inherent challenges of high variation in clinical and cost characteristics of the case management population make it difficult to develop standard return on investment performance guarantees. There are, however, other methodologies and statistical approaches to measure and evaluate program performance. We seek to outline major limiting issues that differentiate case management financial impact analyses from other clinical programs, and to define a framework for beginning a dialogue between suppliers and purchasers of these services to create a program value proposition.

  13. A Hybrid Method to Estimate Specific Differential Phase and Rainfall With Linear Programming and Physics Constraints

    DOE PAGES

    Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun; ...

    2016-10-20

    A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (KDP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid KDP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δhv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and KDP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid KDP estimator over existing methods.

  14. Estimation of malaria parasite reservoir coverage using reactive case detection and active community fever screening from census data with rapid diagnostic tests in southern Zambia: a re-sampling approach.

    PubMed

    Yukich, Joshua; Bennett, Adam; Yukich, Rudy; Stuck, Logan; Hamainza, Busiku; Silumbe, Kafula; Smith, Tom; Chitnis, Nakul; Steketee, Richard W; Finn, Timothy; Eisele, Thomas P; Miller, John M

    2017-08-07

    In areas where malaria transmission has been suppressed by vector control interventions many malaria control and elimination programmes are actively seeking new interventions to further reduce malaria prevalence, incidence and transmission. Malaria infection prevalence and incidence has been shown to cluster geographically, especially at lower transmission levels, and as such a reactive strategy is frequently used, by which index cases presenting to a passive surveillance system are used to target small areas for testing and treatment, reactive case detection (RCD), or focal drug administration (fDA). This study utilizes geo-located data from a census with parasitological testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment-seeking data collection conducted in southern Zambia to estimate the coverage of RCD or fDA in terms of the population and parasite reservoir as well as the operational requirements of such strategies, using a re-sampling algorithm developed exclusively for this purpose. This re-sampling algorithm allows for the specification of several parameters, such that different operational variants of these reactive strategies can be examined, including varying the search radius, screening for fever, or presumptive treatment (fDA). Results indicate that RCD, fDA and active fever screening followed by RCD, even with search radii over several hundered meters will only yield limited coverage of the RDT positive parasite reservoir during a short period. Long-term use of these strategies may increase this proportion. Reactive strategies detect a higher proportion of the reservoir of infections than random searches, but this effect appears to be greater in areas of low, but not moderate malaria prevalence in southern Zambia. Increases in the sensitivity of RDTs could also affect these results. The number of individuals and households that need to be searched increase rapidly, but approximately linearly with search radius. Reactive strategies in southern

  15. The complexities of malaria disease manifestations with a focus on asymptomatic malaria

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a serious parasitic disease in the developing world, causing high morbidity and mortality. The pathogenesis of malaria is complex, and the clinical presentation of disease ranges from severe and complicated, to mild and uncomplicated, to asymptomatic malaria. Despite a wealth of studies on the clinical severity of disease, asymptomatic malaria infections are still poorly understood. Asymptomatic malaria remains a challenge for malaria control programs as it significantly influences transmission dynamics. A thorough understanding of the interaction between hosts and parasites in the development of different clinical outcomes is required. In this review, the problems and obstacles to the study and control of asymptomatic malaria are discussed. The human and parasite factors associated with differential clinical outcomes are described and the management and treatment strategies for the control of the disease are outlined. Further, the crucial gaps in the knowledge of asymptomatic malaria that should be the focus of future research towards development of more effective malaria control strategies are highlighted. PMID:22289302

  16. Progress towards malaria control targets in relation to national malaria programme funding

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Malaria control has been dramatically scaled up the past decade, mainly thanks to increasing international donor financing since 2003. This study assessed progress up to 2010 towards global malaria impact targets, in relation to Global Fund, other donor and domestic malaria programme financing over 2003 to 2009. Methods Assessments used domestic malaria financing reported by national programmes, and Global Fund/OECD data on donor financing for 90 endemic low- and middle-income countries, WHO estimates of households owning one or more insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) for countries in sub-Saharan Africa, and WHO-estimated malaria case incidence and deaths in countries outside sub-Saharan Africa. Results Global Fund and other donor funding is concentrated in a subset of the highest endemic African countries. Outside Africa, donor funding is concentrated in those countries with highest malaria mortality and case incidence rates over the years 2000 to 2003. ITN coverage in 2010 in Africa, and declines in case and death rates per person at risk over 2004 to 2010 outside Africa, were greatest in countries with highest donor funding per person at risk, and smallest in countries with lowest donor malaria funding per person at risk. Outside Africa, all-source malaria programme funding over 2003 to 2009 per case averted ($56-5,749) or per death averted ($58,000-3,900,000) over 2004 to 2010 tended to be lower (more favourable) in countries with higher donor malaria funding per person at risk. Conclusions Increases in malaria programme funding are associated with accelerated progress towards malaria control targets. Associations between programme funding per person at risk and ITN coverage increases and declines in case and death rates suggest opportunities to maximize the impact of donor funding, by strategic re-allocation to countries with highest continued need. PMID:23317000

  17. Vaccines against malaria.

    PubMed

    Ouattara, Amed; Laurens, Matthew B

    2015-03-15

    Despite global efforts to control malaria, the illness remains a significant public health threat. Currently, there is no licensed vaccine against malaria, but an efficacious vaccine would represent an important public health tool for successful malaria elimination. Malaria vaccine development continues to be hindered by a poor understanding of antimalarial immunity, a lack of an immune correlate of protection, and the genetic diversity of malaria parasites. Current vaccine development efforts largely target Plasmodium falciparum parasites in the pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic stages, with some research on transmission-blocking vaccines against asexual stages and vaccines against pregnancy-associated malaria. The leading pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate is RTS,S, and early results of ongoing Phase 3 testing show overall efficacy of 46% against clinical malaria. The next steps for malaria vaccine development will focus on the design of a product that is efficacious against the highly diverse strains of malaria and the identification of a correlate of protection against disease.

  18. Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development.

    PubMed

    Sampaio, Vanderson Souza; Siqueira, André Machado; Alecrim, Maria das Graças Costa; Mourão, Maria Paula Gomes; Marchesini, Paola Barbosa; Albuquerque, Bernardino Cláudio; Nascimento, Joabi; Figueira, Élder Augusto Guimarães; Alecrim, Wilson Duarte; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

    2015-01-01

    In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

  19. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  20. Prophylaxis of Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Eli

    2012-01-01

    Malaria prevention in travelers to endemic areas remains dependent principally on chemoprophylaxis. Although malaria chemoprophylaxis refers to all malaria species, a distinction should be drawn between falciparum malaria prophylaxis and the prophylaxis of the relapsing malaria species (vivax & ovale). While the emergence of drug resistant strains, as well as the costs and adverse reactions to medications, complicate falciparum prophylaxis use, there are virtually no drugs available for vivax prophylaxis, beside of primaquine. Based on traveler’s malaria data, a revised recommendation for using chemoprophylaxis in low risk areas should be considered. PMID:22811794

  1. A National Estimate of Performance: Statewide Highway Safety Program Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    A nationwide systematic approach to assess the developments and achievements of highway safety activities was conducted to measure program outputs from 1969 through 1974 using key indicators of performance such as ratios and percentages. A sample of 10 states was selected with overall sample of 105 local jurisdictions which would provide estimated…

  2. [Malaria control in Brazil: 1965 to 2001].

    PubMed

    Loiola, Carlos Catão Prates; da Silva, C J Mangabeira; Tauil, Pedro Luiz

    2002-04-01

    This paper reviews malaria control initiatives in Brazil, from the Malaria Eradication Campaign (Campanha de Erradicação da Malária), which was launched in 1965 and was based on spraying dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and on administering antimalarial drugs, to the implementation, in 2000, of the Program for Intensification of Malaria Control in the nine-state Legal Amazon region of Brazil (Plano de Intensificação das Ações de Controle da Malária na Amazônia Legal), which was implemented in response to the World Health Organization's Roll Back Malaria effort. Among the Brazilian initiatives discussed are epidemiological stratification, the Impact Operation (Operação Impacto), the Amazon Basin Malaria Control Project (Projeto de Controle da Malária na Bacia Amazônica), and the Integrated Malaria Control Program (Programa de Controle Integrado da Malária). Although there was progress in the control of malaria before the Intensification Program was launched in 2000, the actions carried out were not sustained. From 1998 to 1999 there was even a 34% increase in the number of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon. The Intensification Program set a goal, in comparison to 1999, of reducing by 50% the number of malaria cases by the end of 2001 and of cutting by 50% the mortality due to malaria by the end of 2002. Data for 2001 showed an overall 39% decrease in the number of malaria cases in the nine Amazonian states of the Intensification Program. The smallest decrease (15%) was in the state of Amapá, where the plan was not implemented until the second half of 2001. In terms of incidence by species, there was a 35% reduction in cases caused by Plasmodium falciparum and a 41% reduction in cases caused by P. vivax. The only independent variable that explains this reduction is the implementation of the Intensification Program. Although preliminary, these results indicate considerable gains. Decisive to this progress has been the strong mobilization of

  3. Programmer's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.

    1981-01-01

    The MMLE3 is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program. The implementation of the program on specific computer systems is discussed. The structure of the program is diagrammed, and the function and operation of individual routines is described. Complete listings and reference maps of the routines are included on microfiche as a supplement. Four test cases are discussed; listings of the input cards and program output for the test cases are included on microfiche as a supplement.

  4. Subsampling program for the estimation of fish impingement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beauchamp, John J.; Kumar, K. D.

    1984-11-01

    Federal regulations require operators of nuclear and coal-fired power-generating stations to estimate the number of fish impinged on intake screens. During winter months, impingement may range into the hundreds of thousands for certain species, making it impossible to count all intake screens completely. We present graphs for determinig the appropriate“optimal” subsample that must be obtained to estimate the total number impinged. Since the number of fish impinged tends to change drastically within a short time period, the subsample size is determined based on the most recent data. This allows for the changing nature of the species-age composition of the impinged fish. These graphs can also be used for subsampling fish catches in an aquatic system when the size of the catch is too large to sample completely.

  5. Early estimation of resource expenditures and program size

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Card, D.

    1983-01-01

    A substantial amount of software engineering research effort was focused on the development of software estimation models. A measure of lines of code was derived based on the origin of the delivered code, L sub dev = N + E + 0.2 (S + O) (where L sub dev = developed lines of code, N = newly implemented lines of code, E = extensively modified lines of code, S = slightly modified lines of code, and O = old unchanged lines of code) that is substituted in the following equation H sub s = aL sup b (where H sub s = staff-hours of effort, L = lines of code, a = a constant, and b = a constant). The limitations of this model are discussed and some alternative estimation models that can be used earlier in the development process are proposed.

  6. GEODYN system description, volume 1. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, M. M.; Goad, C. C.; Martin, T. V.

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for the estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters is presented. The areas in which the program is operational are defined. The specific uses of the program are given as: (1) determination of definitive orbits, (2) tracking instrument calibration, (3) satellite operational predictions, and (4) geodetic parameter estimation. The relationship between the various elements in the solution of the orbit and geodetic parameter estimation problem is analyzed. The solution of the problems corresponds to the orbit generation mode in the first case and to the data reduction mode in the second case.

  7. Impact of malaria morbidity on gross domestic product in Uganda.

    PubMed

    Orem, Juliet Nabyonga; Kirigia, Joses Muthuri; Azairwe, Robert; Kasirye, Ibrahim; Walker, Oladapo

    2012-03-22

    The burden of malaria is a key challenge to both human and economic development in malaria endemic countries. The impact of malaria can be categorized from three dimensions, namely: health, social and economic. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of malaria morbidity on gross domestic product (GDP) of Uganda. The impact of malaria morbidity on GDP of Uganda was estimated using double-log econometric model. The 1997-2003 time series macro-data used in the analysis were for 28 quarters, i.e. 7 years times 4 quarters per year. It was obtained from national and international secondary sources. The slope coefficient for Malaria Index (M) was -0.00767; which indicates that when malaria morbidity increases by one unit, while holding all other explanatory variables constant, per capita GDP decreases by US$0.00767 per year. In 2003 Uganda lost US$ 49,825,003 of GDP due to malaria morbidity. Dividing the total loss of US$49.8 million by a population of 25,827,000 yields a loss in GDP of US$1.93 per person in Uganda in 2003. Malaria morbidity results in a substantive loss in GDP of Uganda. The high burden of malaria leads to decreased long-term economic growth, and works against poverty eradication efforts and socioeconomic development of the country.

  8. Verification of Cost Estimating Procedures for MAPS Computer Program.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    has been assuming a lar- data entered are stored in the data base from run-to-run so ger role in planning assistance in water supply recently through...population and water Equation and a numerical approximation to the Moody dis- ue projections can be stored in the program for each service gram. The...water sources were adequate potatal Reonm of Nashville Urbn Study. Waser Supply Nmmssue for future needs. The moat promising surface watRC sou11rces

  9. Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Methods Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Results Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the

  10. Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs.

    PubMed

    Chakraborty, Nirali M; Firestone, Rebecca; Bellows, Nicole

    2013-01-01

    The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the exposed, while the wealthy

  11. A computer program for estimating fish population sizes and annual production rates

    SciTech Connect

    Railsback, S.F.; Holcomb, B.D.; Ryon, M.G.

    1989-10-01

    This report documents a program that estimates fish population sizes and annual production rates in small streams from multiple-pass sampling data. A maximum weighted likelihood method is used to estimate population sizes (Carle and Strub, 1978), and a size-frequency method is used to estimate production (Garman and Waters, 1983). The program performs the following steps: (1) reads in the data and performs error checking; (2) where required, uses length-weight regression to fill in missing weights; (3) assigns length classes to the fish; (4) for each date, species, and length class, estimates the population size and its variance; (5) for each date and species, estimates the total population size and its variance; and (6) for each species, estimates the annual production rate and its variance between sampling dates selected by the user. If data from only date are used, only populations are estimated. 9 refs.

  12. The Value of Information in Decision-Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa.

    PubMed

    Kim, Dohyeong; Brown, Zachary; Anderson, Richard; Mutero, Clifford; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Wiener, Jonathan; Kramer, Randall

    2016-03-23

    Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced-based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5-21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.

  13. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is perhaps the most serious human disease problem. It inflicts millions worldwide and is on the rise in many countries where it was once under control. This rise is in part due to the high costs, both economic and environmental, of current control programs. The search for more cost-effective means to combat malaria has focussed attention on new technologies, one of which is remote sensing. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the effort to control a variety of diseases worldwide and malaria is perhaps one of the most promising. This study is part of the malaria control effort in the Central American country of Belize, which has experienced a resurgence of malaria in the last two decades. The proposed project is a feasibility study of the use of Radarsat (and other similar radar systems) to monitor seasonal changes in the breeding sites of the anopheline mosquito, which is responsible for malaria transmission. We propose that spatial and temporal changes in anopheline mosquito production can be predicted by sensing where and when their breeding sites are flooded. Timely knowledge of anopheline mosquito production is a key factor in control efforts. Such knowledge can be used by local control agencies to direct their limited resources to selected areas and time periods when the human population is at greatest risk. Radar is a key sensor in this application because frequent cloud cover during the peak periods of malaria transmission precludes the use of optical sensors.

  14. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is the most important vector-borne tropical disease (Collins and Paskewitz, 1995) and there is no simple and universally applicable form of vector control. While new methods such as malaria vaccine or genetic manipulation of mosquitoes are being explored in the laboratories, the need for more field research on malaria transmission remains very strong. For the foreseeable future many malaria programs must focus on controlling the vector, the anopheline mosquito, often under the specter of shrinking budgets. Therefore information on which human populations are at the greatest risk is especially valuable when allocating scarce resources. The goal of the Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control Project is to demonstrate the feasibility of using Radarsat or other comparable satellite radar imaging systems to determine where and when human populations are at greatest risk for contracting malaria. The study area is northern Belize, a region with abundant wetlands and a potentially serious malaria problem. A key aspect of this study is the analysis of multi-temporal satellite imagery to track seasonal flooding of anopheline mosquito breeding sites. Radarsat images of the test site in Belize have been acquired one to three times a month over the last year, however,, to date only one processed image has been received from the Alaska SAR Facility for analysis. Therefore analysis at this stage is focussed on determining the radar backscatter characteristics of known anopheline breeding sites, with future work to be dedicated toward seasonal changes.

  15. Primate malarias: Diversity, distribution and insights for zoonotic Plasmodium.

    PubMed

    Faust, Christina; Dobson, Andrew P

    2015-12-01

    Protozoans within the genus Plasmodium are well-known as the causative agents of malaria in humans. Numerous Plasmodium species parasites also infect a wide range of non-human primate hosts in tropical and sub-tropical regions worldwide. Studying this diversity can provide critical insight into our understanding of human malarias, as several human malaria species are a result of host switches from non-human primates. Current spillover of a monkey malaria, Plasmodium knowlesi, in Southeast Asia highlights the permeability of species barriers in Plasmodium. Also recently, surveys of apes in Africa uncovered a previously undescribed diversity of Plasmodium in chimpanzees and gorillas. Therefore, we carried out a meta-analysis to quantify the global distribution, host range, and diversity of known non-human primate malaria species. We used published records of Plasmodium parasites found in non-human primates to estimate the total diversity of non-human primate malarias globally. We estimate that at least three undescribed primate malaria species exist in sampled primates, and many more likely exist in unstudied species. The diversity of malaria parasites is especially uncertain in regions of low sampling such as Madagascar, and taxonomic groups such as African Old World Monkeys and gibbons. Presence-absence data of malaria across primates enables us to highlight the close association of forested regions and non-human primate malarias. This distribution potentially reflects a long coevolution of primates, forest-adapted mosquitoes, and malaria parasites. The diversity and distribution of primate malaria are an essential prerequisite to understanding the mechanisms and circumstances that allow Plasmodium to jump species barriers, both in the evolution of malaria parasites and current cases of spillover into humans.

  16. Ranking Malaria Risk Factors to Guide Malaria Control Efforts in African Highlands

    PubMed Central

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. Methods and Findings A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through “classification and regression trees”, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. Conclusions In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors. PMID:19946627

  17. Joko Tingkir program for estimating tsunami potential rapidly

    SciTech Connect

    Madlazim, Hariyono, E.

    2014-09-25

    The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters can provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.

  18. Rapid Diagnostic Test Performance Assessed Using Latent Class Analysis for the Diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum Placental Malaria.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yunhao; Mwapasa, Victor; Khairallah, Carole; Thwai, Kyaw L; Kalilani-Phiri, Linda; Ter Kuile, Feiko O; Meshnick, Steven R; Taylor, Steve M

    2016-10-05

    Placental malaria causes low birth weight and neonatal mortality in malaria-endemic areas. The diagnosis of placental malaria is important for program evaluation and clinical care, but is compromised by the suboptimal performance of current diagnostics. Using placental and peripheral blood specimens collected from delivering women in Malawi, we compared estimation of the operating characteristics of microscopy, rapid diagnostic test (RDT), polymerase chain reaction, and histopathology using both a traditional contingency table and a latent class analysis (LCA) approach. The prevalence of placental malaria by histopathology was 13.8%; concordance between tests was generally poor. Relative to histopathology, RDT sensitivity was 79.5% in peripheral and 66.2% in placental blood; using LCA, RDT sensitivities increased to 93.7% and 80.2%, respectively. Our results, if replicated in other cohorts, indicate that RDT testing of peripheral or placental blood may be suitable approaches to detect placental malaria for surveillance programs, including areas where intermittent preventive therapy in pregnancy is not used. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  19. Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bush, J. C.

    1990-01-01

    Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

  20. Economic cost analysis of malaria case management at the household level during the malaria elimination phase in The People's Republic of China.

    PubMed

    Xia, Shang; Ma, Jin-Xiang; Wang, Duo-Quan; Li, Shi-Zhu; Rollinson, David; Zhou, Shui-Sen; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

    2016-06-03

    In China, malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households. To evaluate malaria economic burden in terms of both direct and indirect costs has its meaning in improving the effectiveness of malaria elimination program in China. A number of study sites (eight counties in five provinces) were selected from the malaria endemic area in China, representing the different levels of malaria incidence, risk classification, economic development. A number of households with malaria cases (n = 923) were surveyed during the May to December in 2012 to collect information on malaria economic burden. Descriptive statistics were used to characterize the basic profiles of selected malaria cases in terms of their gender, age group, occupation and malaria type. The malaria economic costs were evaluated by direct and indirect costs. Comparisons were carried out by using the chi-square test (or Z-test) and the Mann-Whitney U test among malaria cases with reference to local/imported malaria patients, hospitalized/out patients, and treatment hospitals. The average cost of malaria per case was 1 691.23 CNY (direct cost was 735.41 CNY and indirect cost was 955.82 CNY), which accounted for 11.1 % of a household's total income. The average costs per case for local and imported malaria were 1 087.58 CNY and 4271.93 CNY, respectively. The average cost of a malaria patient being diagnosed and treated in a hospital at the county level or above (3 975.43 CNY) was 4.23 times higher than that of malaria patient being diagnosed and treated at a village or township hospital (938.80 CNY). This study found that malaria has been posing a significant economic burden on households in terms of direct and indirect costs. There is a need to improve the effectiveness of interventions in order to reduce the impact costs of malaria, especially of imported infections, in order to eliminate the disease in China.

  1. Malaria in South Asia: Prevalence and control

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ashwani; Chery, Laura; Biswas, Chinmoy; Dubhashi, Nagesh; Dutta, Prafulla; Dua, Virendra Kumar; Kacchap, Mridula; Kakati, Sanjeeb; Khandeparkar, Anar; Kour, Dalip; Mahajanj, Satish N.; Maji, Ardhendu; Majumder, Partha; Mohanta, Jagadish; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K.; Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Roy, Krishnangshu; Shastri, Jayanthi; Valecha, Neena; Vikash, Rana; Wani, Reena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2013-01-01

    The “Malaria Evolution in South Asia” (MESA) program project is an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. This US–India collaborative program will study the origin of genetic diversity of malaria parasites and their selection on the Indian subcontinent. This knowledge should contribute to a better understanding of unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. In this first of two reviews, we highlight malaria prevalence in India. In particular, we draw attention to variations in distribution of different human-parasites and different vectors, variation in drug resistance traits, and multiple forms of clinical presentations. Uneven malaria severity in India is often attributed to large discrepancies in health care accessibility as well as human migrations within the country and across neighboring borders. Poor access to health care goes hand in hand with poor reporting from some of the same areas, combining to possibly distort disease prevalence and death from malaria in some parts of India. Corrections are underway in the form of increased resources for disease control, greater engagement of village-level health workers for early diagnosis and treatment, and possibly new public–private partnerships activities accompanying traditional national malaria control programs in the most severely affected areas. A second accompanying review raises the possibility that, beyond uneven health care, evolutionary pressures may alter malaria parasites in ways that contribute to severe disease in India, particularly in the NE corridor of India bordering Myanmar Narayanasamy et al., 2012. PMID:22248528

  2. Malaria in South Asia: prevalence and control.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Ashwani; Chery, Laura; Biswas, Chinmoy; Dubhashi, Nagesh; Dutta, Prafulla; Dua, Virendra Kumar; Kacchap, Mridula; Kakati, Sanjeeb; Khandeparkar, Anar; Kour, Dalip; Mahajan, Satish N; Maji, Ardhendu; Majumder, Partha; Mohanta, Jagadish; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K; Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Roy, Krishnangshu; Shastri, Jayanthi; Valecha, Neena; Vikash, Rana; Wani, Reena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2012-03-01

    The "Malaria Evolution in South Asia" (MESA) program project is an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. This US-India collaborative program will study the origin of genetic diversity of malaria parasites and their selection on the Indian subcontinent. This knowledge should contribute to a better understanding of unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. In this first of two reviews, we highlight malaria prevalence in India. In particular, we draw attention to variations in distribution of different human-parasites and different vectors, variation in drug resistance traits, and multiple forms of clinical presentations. Uneven malaria severity in India is often attributed to large discrepancies in health care accessibility as well as human migrations within the country and across neighboring borders. Poor access to health care goes hand in hand with poor reporting from some of the same areas, combining to possibly distort disease prevalence and death from malaria in some parts of India. Corrections are underway in the form of increased resources for disease control, greater engagement of village-level health workers for early diagnosis and treatment, and possibly new public-private partnerships activities accompanying traditional national malaria control programs in the most severely affected areas. A second accompanying review raises the possibility that, beyond uneven health care, evolutionary pressures may alter malaria parasites in ways that contribute to severe disease in India, particularly in the NE corridor of India bordering Myanmar Narayanasamy et al., 2012. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Malaria. Can WHO roll back malaria?

    PubMed

    Balter, M

    2000-10-20

    In October 1998, World Health Organization Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland announced Roll Back Malaria, a multiagency crusade that aims to cut malaria mortality in half over the next 10 years. Brundtland might just be the one to pull it off, say numerous public health experts, although some researchers question whether the goal is realistic.

  4. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Ángel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A.; Beier, John C.; Herrera, Socrates

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent’s contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1 to 1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty per cent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2 %) followed by P. falciparum (25.7 %) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA

  5. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Angel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A; Beier, John C; Herrera, Socrates

    2012-03-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent's contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1-1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty percent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2%) followed by P. falciparum (25.7%) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA) (sponsored by

  6. An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Quasi-Experimental Net Impact Estimates of CETA Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickinson, Katherine P.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Net impact estimates of Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) programs vary widely and can be explained by the different evaluation methodologies used. Estimates are sensitive to the inclusion of recently unemployed persons in the comparison sample and assumptions about the time of decision to enroll in CETA. (GDC)

  7. Area-specific recreation use estimation using the national visitor use monitoring program data.

    Treesearch

    Eric M. White; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Donald B.K. English

    2007-01-01

    Estimates of national forest recreation use are available at the national, regional, and forest levels via the USDA Forest Service National Visitor Use Monitoring (NVUM) program. In some resource planning and management applications, analysts desire recreation use estimates for subforest areas within an individual national forest or for subforest areas that combine...

  8. Malaria: developing an action programme.

    PubMed

    Seadzi, G K; Nyonator, F K

    1995-03-01

    Malaria is the most common reason that people seek medical care in Ghana. This situation is taken for granted by the people, and there is no organized prevention effort. A World Health Organization-sponsored pilot malaria eradication program (1958-64) was abandoned after a peak period of activity in 1963 when vector control included indoor spraying with DDT. Recently there has been an upward trend in the incidence of malaria, with 15% of all cases becoming complicated. The main vector species are A. gambiae, A. melas, and A. funestus, and the predominant parasite species is Plasmodium falciparum. Treatment of choice is chloroquine phosphate, and although drug resistance has been suspected, it has not been documented. All health facilities are stretched to the limit with regard to the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Field research is needed to provide a more accurate picture of the current situation. The clinical ability to deliver prompt diagnoses and treatment must be strengthened, and public health education must be instituted. The regional health management system must be improved, and personnel must be taught to use collected data. The use of bed nets, which is common in the south, should be encouraged, and impregnated nets should be introduced.

  9. Malaria in Sucre State, Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Zimmerman, R H

    2000-01-01

    The author reviews the malaria research program in Sucre State, Venezuela, taking an ecosystem approach. The goal was to determine which methods could have been introduced at the onset that would have made the study more ecological and interdisciplinary. Neither an ecosystem approach nor integrated disease control were in place at the time of the study. This study began to introduce an ecosystem approach when two contrasting ecosystems in Sucre State were selected for study and vector control methods were implemented based on research results. The need to have a health policy in place with an eco-health approach is crucial to the success of research and control. The review suggests that sustainability is low when not all the stakeholders are involved in the design and implementation of the research and control strategy development. The lack of community involvement makes sustainability doubtful. The author concludes that there were two interdependent challenges for malaria control: development of an ecosystem approach for malaria research and control, and the implementation of an integrated disease control strategy, with malaria as one of the important health issues.

  10. A model for estimating the cost impact of schedule perturbations on aerospace research and development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bishop, D. F.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of determining the cost impact attributable to perturbations in an aerospace R and D program schedule is discussed in terms of the diminishing availability of funds. The methodology from which a model is presented for updating R and D cost estimates as a function of perturbations in program time is presented.

  11. Psychometrics for the Cost Conscious: Using Discriminant Analysis to Refine Estimates of Program Cost.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coffin, Raymond J.

    This presentation uses data from a long-term juvenile diversion counseling program to illustrate a sample method of estimating program cost. Several problems in using average cost figures are first presented. Then a method is described in which discriminant analysis can be used to refine cost comparisons. This makes it possible to produce…

  12. A computer program for estimating decommissioning costs for light water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1993-02-01

    This report discusses a desk-top computer program has been developed for estimating the costs, waste volumes, and occupational radiation exposures associated with decommissioning light-water reactor power stations. Cost categories and cost algorithms used in the program are discussed and a brief description of the user interface is given.

  13. RECAL: A Computer Program for Selecting Sample Days for Recreation Use Estimation

    Treesearch

    D.L. Erickson; C.J. Liu; H. Ken Cordell; W.L. Chen

    1980-01-01

    Recreation Calendar (RECAL) is a computer program in PL/I for drawing a sample of days for estimating recreation use. With RECAL, a sampling period of any length may be chosen; simple random, stratified random, and factorial designs can be accommodated. The program randomly allocates days to strata and locations.

  14. Closing the Education Gender Gap: Estimating the Impact of Girls' Scholarship Program in the Gambia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gajigo, Ousman

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of a school fee elimination program for female secondary students in The Gambia to reduce gender disparity in education. To assess the impact of the program, two nationally representative household surveys were used (1998 and 2002/2003). By 2002/2003, about half of the districts in the country had benefited from the…

  15. Closing the Education Gender Gap: Estimating the Impact of Girls' Scholarship Program in the Gambia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gajigo, Ousman

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of a school fee elimination program for female secondary students in The Gambia to reduce gender disparity in education. To assess the impact of the program, two nationally representative household surveys were used (1998 and 2002/2003). By 2002/2003, about half of the districts in the country had benefited from the…

  16. Program Manual for Estimating Use and Related Statistics on Developed Recreation Sites

    Treesearch

    Gary L. Tyre; Gene R. Welch

    1972-01-01

    This manual includes documentation of four computer programs supporting subroutines for estimating use, visitor origin, patterns of use, and occupancy rates at developed recreation sites. The programs are written in Fortran IV and should be easily adapted to any computer arrangement have the capacity to compile this language.

  17. Malaria risk in Nigeria: Bayesian geostatistical modelling of 2010 malaria indicator survey data.

    PubMed

    Adigun, Abbas B; Gajere, Efron N; Oresanya, Olusola; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-04-14

    In 2010, the National Malaria Control Programme with the support of Roll Back Malaria partners implemented a nationally representative Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), which assembled malaria burden and control intervention related data. The MIS data were analysed to produce a contemporary smooth map of malaria risk and evaluate the control interventions effects on parasitaemia risk after controlling for environmental/climatic, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. A Bayesian geostatistical logistic regression model was fitted on the observed parasitological prevalence data. Important environmental/climatic risk factors of parasitaemia were identified by applying Bayesian variable selection within geostatistical model. The best model was employed to predict the disease risk over a grid of 4 km(2) resolution. Validation was carried out to assess model predictive performance. Various measures of control intervention coverage were derived to estimate the effects of interventions on parasitaemia risk after adjusting for environmental, socioeconomic and demographic factors. Normalized difference vegetation index and rainfall were identified as important environmental/climatic predictors of malaria risk. The population adjusted risk estimates ranges from 6.46% in Lagos state to 43.33% in Borno. Interventions appear to not have important effect on malaria risk. The odds of parasitaemia appears to be on downward trend with improved socioeconomic status and living in rural areas increases the odds of testing positive to malaria parasites. Older children also have elevated risk of malaria infection. The produced maps and estimates of parasitaemic children give an important synoptic view of current parasite prevalence in the country. Control activities will find it a useful tool in identifying priority areas for intervention.

  18. Economic burden of malaria on businesses in Ghana: a case for private sector investment in malaria control.

    PubMed

    Nonvignon, Justice; Aryeetey, Genevieve Cecilia; Malm, Keziah L; Agyemang, Samuel Agyei; Aubyn, Vivian N A; Peprah, Nana Yaw; Bart-Plange, Constance N; Aikins, Moses

    2016-09-06

    Despite the significant gains made globally in reducing the burden of malaria, the disease remains a major public health challenge, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Ghana. There is a significant gap in financing malaria control globally. The private sector could become a significant source of financing malaria control. To get the private sector to appreciate the need to invest in malaria control, it is important to provide evidence of the economic burden of malaria on businesses. The objective of this study, therefore, was to estimate the economic burden on malaria on businesses in Ghana, so as to stimulate the sector's investment in malaria control. Data covering 2012-2014 were collected from 62 businesses sampled from Greater Accra, Ashanti and Western Regions of Ghana, which have the highest concentration of businesses in the country. Data on the cost of businesses' spending on treatment and prevention of malaria in staff and their dependants as well as staff absenteeism due to malaria and expenditure on other health-related activities were collected. Views of business leaders on the effect of malaria on their businesses were also compiled. The analysis was extrapolated to cover 5828 businesses across the country. The results show that businesses in Ghana lost about US$6.58 million to malaria in 2014, 90 % of which were direct costs. A total of 3913 workdays were lost due to malaria in firms in the study sample during the period 2012-2014. Businesses in the study sample spent an average of 0.5 % of the annual corporate returns on treatment of malaria in employees and their dependants, 0.3 % on malaria prevention, and 0.5 % on other health-related corporate social responsibilities. Again business leaders affirmed that malaria affects their businesses' efficiency, employee attendance and productivity and expenses. Finally, about 93 % of business leaders expressed the need private sector investment in malaria control. The economic burden of

  19. Estimating BrAC from transdermal alcohol concentration data using the BrAC estimator software program.

    PubMed

    Luczak, Susan E; Rosen, I Gary

    2014-08-01

    Transdermal alcohol sensor (TAS) devices have the potential to allow researchers and clinicians to unobtrusively collect naturalistic drinking data for weeks at a time, but the transdermal alcohol concentration (TAC) data these devices produce do not consistently correspond with breath alcohol concentration (BrAC) data. We present and test the BrAC Estimator software, a program designed to produce individualized estimates of BrAC from TAC data by fitting mathematical models to a specific person wearing a specific TAS device. Two TAS devices were worn simultaneously by 1 participant for 18 days. The trial began with a laboratory alcohol session to calibrate the model and was followed by a field trial with 10 drinking episodes. Model parameter estimates and fit indices were compared across drinking episodes to examine the calibration phase of the software. Software-generated estimates of peak BrAC, time of peak BrAC, and area under the BrAC curve were compared with breath analyzer data to examine the estimation phase of the software. In this single-subject design with breath analyzer peak BrAC scores ranging from 0.013 to 0.057, the software created consistent models for the 2 TAS devices, despite differences in raw TAC data, and was able to compensate for the attenuation of peak BrAC and latency of the time of peak BrAC that are typically observed in TAC data. This software program represents an important initial step for making it possible for non mathematician researchers and clinicians to obtain estimates of BrAC from TAC data in naturalistic drinking environments. Future research with more participants and greater variation in alcohol consumption levels and patterns, as well as examination of gain scheduling calibration procedures and nonlinear models of diffusion, will help to determine how precise these software models can become. Copyright © 2014 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  20. Malaria-related anaemia: a Latin American perspective

    PubMed Central

    Quintero, Juan Pablo; Siqueira, André Machado; Tobón, Alberto; Blair, Silvia; Moreno, Alberto; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Valencia, Sócrates Herrera

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is the most important parasitic disease worldwide, responsible for an estimated 225 million clinical cases each year. It mainly affects children, pregnant women and non-immune adults who frequently die victims of cerebral manifestations and anaemia. Although the contribution of the American continent to the global malaria burden is only around 1.2 million clinical cases annually, there are 170 million inhabitants living at risk of malaria transmission in this region. On the African continent, where Plasmodium falciparum is the most prevalent human malaria parasite, anaemia is responsible for about half of the malaria-related deaths. Conversely, in Latin America (LA), malaria-related anaemia appears to be uncommon, though there is a limited knowledge about its real prevalence. This may be partially explained by several factors, including that the overall malaria burden in LA is significantly lower than that of Africa, that Plasmodium vivax, the predominant Plasmodium species in the region, appears to display a different clinical spectrus and most likely because better health services in LA prevent the development of severe malaria cases. With the aim of contributing to the understanding of the real importance of malaria-related anaemia in LA, we discuss here a revision of the available literature on the subject and the usefulness of experimental animal models, including New World monkeys, particularly for the study of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of malaria. PMID:21881762

  1. GEODYN operations description, volume 3. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, T. V.; Mullins, N. E.

    1972-01-01

    The operating and set-up procedures for the multi-satellite, multi-arc GEODYN- Orbit Determination program are described. All system output is analyzed. The GEODYN Program is the nucleus of the entire GEODYN system. It is a definitive orbit and geodetic parameter estimation program capable of simultaneously processing observations from multiple arcs of multiple satellites. GEODYN has two modes of operation: (1) the data reduction mode and (2) the orbit generation mode.

  2. Programmable calculator program for linear somatic cell scores to estimate mastitis yield losses.

    PubMed

    Kirk, J H

    1984-02-01

    A programmable calculator program calculates loss of milk yield in dairy cows based on linear somatic cell count scores. The program displays the distribution of the herd by lactation number and linear score for present and optimal goal situations. Loss of yield is in pounds and dollars by cow and herd. The program estimates optimal milk production and numbers of fewer cows at the goal for mastitis infection.

  3. IMAGES: A digital computer program for interactive modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, R. L.

    1984-01-01

    An interactive digital computer program for modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis was written. Both mathematical and operation considerations are described; however, the mathematical presentation is limited to those concepts essential to the operational capability of the program. The program is capable of both modal and spectral synthesis of multi-input control systems. It is user friendly, has scratchpad capability and dynamic memory, and can be used to design either state or output feedback systems.

  4. Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Buckee, Caroline; Marti, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps. PMID:26086192

  5. The biological control of the malaria vector.

    PubMed

    Kamareddine, Layla

    2012-09-01

    The call for malaria control, over the last century, marked a new epoch in the history of this disease. Many control strategies targeting either the Plasmodium parasite or the Anopheles vector were shown to be effective. Yet, the emergence of drug resistant parasites and insecticide resistant mosquito strains, along with numerous health, environmental, and ecological side effects of many chemical agents, highlighted the need to develop alternative tools that either complement or substitute conventional malaria control approaches. The use of biological means is considered a fundamental part of the recently launched malaria eradication program and has so far shown promising results, although this approach is still in its infancy. This review presents an overview of the most promising biological control tools for malaria eradication, namely fungi, bacteria, larvivorous fish, parasites, viruses and nematodes.

  6. The Biological Control of the Malaria Vector

    PubMed Central

    Kamareddine, Layla

    2012-01-01

    The call for malaria control, over the last century, marked a new epoch in the history of this disease. Many control strategies targeting either the Plasmodium parasite or the Anopheles vector were shown to be effective. Yet, the emergence of drug resistant parasites and insecticide resistant mosquito strains, along with numerous health, environmental, and ecological side effects of many chemical agents, highlighted the need to develop alternative tools that either complement or substitute conventional malaria control approaches. The use of biological means is considered a fundamental part of the recently launched malaria eradication program and has so far shown promising results, although this approach is still in its infancy. This review presents an overview of the most promising biological control tools for malaria eradication, namely fungi, bacteria, larvivorous fish, parasites, viruses and nematodes. PMID:23105979

  7. The evolution of Hanford Environmental Restoration program planning, estimating and baselining

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, K.N.; Lind, C.R.; Gerth, R.B.

    1993-10-01

    Environmental Restoration (ER) planning, cost estimating and baselining efforts represent a unique challenge even to the experienced planner, estimator or program manager. ER work at US Department of Energy (DOE) installations if not typical of the large construction projects or the production programs of the past. This paper will discuss the evolution of the Hanford Site ER Program efforts in dealing with these challenges, with a focus on lessons learned. The intent is to share Hanford planning experience with other ER participants through out the DOE installations.

  8. Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Snow, Robert W.

    2011-01-01

    Many attempts have been made to quantify Africa’s malaria burden but none has addressed how urbanization will affect disease transmission and outcome, and therefore mortality and morbidity estimates. In 2003, 39% of Africa’s 850 million people lived in urban settings; by 2030, 54% of Africans are expected to do so. We present the results of a series of entomological, parasitological and behavioural meta-analyses of studies that have investigated the effect of urbanization on malaria in Africa. We describe the effect of urbanization on both the impact of malaria transmission and the concomitant improvements in access to preventative and curative measures. Using these data, we have recalculated estimates of populations at risk of malaria and the resulting mortality. We find there were 1,068,505 malaria deaths in Africa in 2000 — a modest 6.7% reduction over previous iterations. The public-health implications of these findings and revised estimates are discussed. PMID:15608702

  9. Malaria and urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Donnelly, Martin J; McCall, PJ; Lengeler, Christian; Bates, Imelda; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Barnish, Guy; Konradsen, Flemming; Klinkenberg, Eveline; Townson, Harold; Trape, Jean-Francois; Hastings, Ian M; Mutero, Clifford

    2005-01-01

    There are already 40 cities in Africa with over 1 million inhabitants and the United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that by 2025 over 800 million people will live in urban areas. Recognizing that malaria control can improve the health of the vulnerable and remove a major obstacle to their economic development, the Malaria Knowledge Programme of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the Systemwide Initiative on Malaria and Agriculture convened a multi-sectoral technical consultation on urban malaria in Pretoria, South Africa from 2nd to 4th December, 2004. The aim of the meeting was to identify strategies for the assessment and control of urban malaria. This commentary reflects the discussions held during the meeting and aims to inform researchers and policy makers of the potential for containing and reversing the emerging problem of urban malaria. PMID:15720713

  10. Malaria in pregnancy: diagnosing infection and identifying fetal risk.

    PubMed

    Conroy, Andrea L; McDonald, Chloe R; Kain, Kevin C

    2012-11-01

    Despite increased malaria control efforts, recent reports indicate that over 1.2 million deaths due to malaria occurred in 2010. Pregnant women represent a particularly vulnerable risk group as malaria infection can lead to life-threatening disease for the mother and fetus. With 125 million women at risk of malaria in pregnancy every year, better diagnostic tools are needed for timely identification and treatment of malaria infection. Diagnostic surveillance tools are also needed to estimate disease burden and inform public health policies. In this review, the authors focus on malaria diagnostics in pregnancy and discuss considerations for different Plasmodium species and geographic regions. The authors also look at promising diagnostic modalities to monitor fetal and maternal health in pregnancy and discuss implementation barriers for low resource settings.

  11. Epidemiology and Risk Analysis of Malaria among Pregnant Women

    PubMed Central

    Dhiman, S; Yadav, K; Goswami, D; Das, NG; Baruah, I; Singh, L

    2012-01-01

    Malaria remains a complex problem during the pregnancy, which threatens > 35 millions pregnant women every year. Malaria pathogenesis in pregnancy results in accumulation of infected RBCs in the intervillous spaces causing severe alterations leading to the reduced materno-foetal exchanges. In this article we have revisited the current evidences of clinical implications and overall burden of malaria in pregnancy. Many adverse aftermaths including, low birth weight, intrauterine growth retardation, preterm delivery, stillbirth and anemia were found associated with malaria in pregnant women. Despite of worldwide comprehensive control programmes for malaria in pregnancy, the disease control has been a daunting task everywhere. Socio cultural, economical, lack of awareness and various logistic problems compound the disease in developing countries. Thorough evidence based information and estimates, education and awareness and strengthening of prevention programmes are needed urgently to achieve success in malaria control in pregnancy. PMID:23113116

  12. From "forest malaria" to "bromeliad malaria": a case-study of scientific controversy and malaria control.

    PubMed

    Gadelha, P

    1994-08-01

    The article analyses the evolution of knowledge and rationale of control of a special case of malaria transmission based on Bromelia-Kerteszia complex. Since bromeliaceae function as a 'host of the carrier' and were previously associated with natural forests, the elucidation of bromeliad malaria historically elicited controversies concerning the imputation of Kertesziae as transmitters as well as over control strategies directed to bromelia eradication (manual removal, herbicides and deforestation), use of insecticides and chemoprophylaxis. Established authority, disciplinary traditions, conceptual premises and contemporary criteria for validating knowledge in the field partly explain the long time gap since Adolpho Lutz announced at the beginning of the century the existence of a new mosquito and breeding site as responsible for a 'forest malaria' epidemic occurring at a high altitude. The article brings attention to how economic, political and institutional determinants played an important role in redefining studies that led both in Trinidad and Brazil to the recognition of the importance of kerteszia transmission, including urban areas, and establishing new approaches to its study, most relevant of all the concurrence of broad ecological research. The article then describes the Brazilian campaign strategies which showed significant short-term results but had to wait four decades to achieve the goal of eradication due to the peculiar characteristics of this pathogenic complex. Finally, it brings attention to the importance of encompassing social values and discourses, in this case, environmental preservation, to understanding historical trends of malaria control programs.

  13. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peffley, Al F.

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

  14. TETRA-COM: a comprehensive SPSS program for estimating the tetrachoric correlation.

    PubMed

    Lorenzo-Seva, Urbano; Ferrando, Pere J

    2012-12-01

    We provide an SPSS program that implements descriptive and inferential procedures for estimating tetrachoric correlations. These procedures have two main purposes: (1) bivariate estimation in contingency tables and (2) constructing a correlation matrix to be used as input for factor analysis (in particular, the SPSS FACTOR procedure). In both cases, the program computes accurate point estimates, as well as standard errors and confidence intervals that are correct for any population value. For purpose (1), the program computes the contingency table together with five other measures of association. For purpose (2), the program checks the positive definiteness of the matrix, and if it is found not to be Gramian, performs a nonlinear smoothing procedure at the user's request. The SPSS syntax, a short manual, and data files related to this article are available as supplemental materials from brm.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

  15. Malaria prevention and control in Bhutan: successes and challenges.

    PubMed

    Tobgay, Tashi; Torres, Cristina E; Na-Bangchang, Kesara

    2011-03-01

    This paper highlights on the current malaria situations in Bhutan and its challenges for future prevention and control strategies. In Bhutan, malaria affects more than half of the entire population, mostly residing in the southern districts bordering with Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. Over the past ten years, due to concerted efforts, the morbidity and mortality due to malaria has significantly declined. These preventive and control measures focused on the mass distribution of long lasting insecticidal treated nets, focal indoor residual spray and use of artemisinin-based combination therapies. However, considerable challenge lies ahead and research is needed to generate local evidence for sustainable elimination of malaria from Bhutan. The article should be of value and interest to planners, malaria programs and for future researchers on malaria in Bhutan. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Preventing the reintroduction of malaria in Mauritius: a programmatic and financial assessment.

    PubMed

    Tatarsky, Allison; Aboobakar, Shahina; Cohen, Justin M; Gopee, Neerunjun; Bheecarry, Ambicadutt; Moonasar, Devanand; Phillips, Allison A; Kahn, James G; Moonen, Bruno; Smith, David L; Sabot, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling.On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year.The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking

  17. A Hybrid Method to Estimate Specific Differential Phase and Rainfall With Linear Programming and Physics Constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun; Giangrande, Scott E.

    2016-10-20

    A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (KDP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid KDP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δhv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and KDP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid KDP estimator over existing methods.

  18. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  19. Malaria Control and Elimination,1 Venezuela, 1800s–1970s

    PubMed Central

    Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-01-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920, malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world’s interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication. Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization. We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  20. Malaria control and elimination, Venezuela, 1800s –1970s.

    PubMed

    Griffing, Sean M; Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-10-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920,malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world's interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication.Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization.We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  1. Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests

    PubMed Central

    Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; de Prado, Paulo Inácio Knegt Lopez; Kraenkel, Roberto André; Coutinho, Renato Mendes; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

    2013-01-01

    Background Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number () estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations

  2. Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Heterogeneity and Complexity

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cao, Yaming; Chen, Bin; Chen, Xiaoguang; Fan, Qi; Fang, Qiang; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Parker, Daniel; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Su, Xin-zhuan; Yang, Henglin; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Baomin; Xu, Jianwei; Zheng, Bin; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa

    2011-01-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by ‘border malaria’ and ‘forest malaria’ with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. ‘Border malaria’ is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and P. vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is

  3. Targeting male mosquito swarms to control malaria vector density.

    PubMed

    Sawadogo, Simon Peguedwinde; Niang, Abdoulaye; Bilgo, Etienne; Millogo, Azize; Maïga, Hamidou; Dabire, Roch K; Tripet, Frederic; Diabaté, Abdoulaye

    2017-01-01

    Malaria control programs are being jeopardized by the spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vector populations. It has been estimated that the spread of resistance could lead to an additional 120000 deaths per year, and interfere with the prospects for sustained control or the feasibility of achieving malaria elimination. Another complication for the development of resistance management strategies is that, in addition to insecticide resistance, mosquito behavior evolves in a manner that diminishes the impact of LLINs and IRS. Mosquitoes may circumvent LLIN and IRS control through preferential feeding and resting outside human houses and/or being active earlier in the evening before people go to sleep. Recent developments in our understanding of mosquito swarming suggest that new tools targeting mosquito swarms can be designed to cut down the high reproductive rate of malaria vectors. Targeting swarms of major malaria vectors may provide an effective control method to counteract behavioral resistance developed by mosquitoes. Here, we evaluated the impact of systematic spraying of swarms of Anopheles gambiae s.l. using a mixed carbamate and pyrethroid aerosol. The impact of this intervention on vector density, female insemination rates and the age structure of males was measured. We showed that the resulting mass killing of swarming males and some mate-seeking females resulted in a dramatic 80% decrease in population size compared to a control population. A significant decrease in female insemination rate and a significant shift in the age structure of the male population towards younger males incapable of mating were observed. This paradigm-shift study therefore demonstrates that targeting primarily males rather than females, can have a drastic impact on mosquito population.

  4. Targeting male mosquito swarms to control malaria vector density

    PubMed Central

    Sawadogo, Simon Peguedwinde; Niang, Abdoulaye; Bilgo, Etienne; Millogo, Azize; Maïga, Hamidou; Dabire, Roch K.; Tripet, Frederic; Diabaté, Abdoulaye

    2017-01-01

    Malaria control programs are being jeopardized by the spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vector populations. It has been estimated that the spread of resistance could lead to an additional 120000 deaths per year, and interfere with the prospects for sustained control or the feasibility of achieving malaria elimination. Another complication for the development of resistance management strategies is that, in addition to insecticide resistance, mosquito behavior evolves in a manner that diminishes the impact of LLINs and IRS. Mosquitoes may circumvent LLIN and IRS control through preferential feeding and resting outside human houses and/or being active earlier in the evening before people go to sleep. Recent developments in our understanding of mosquito swarming suggest that new tools targeting mosquito swarms can be designed to cut down the high reproductive rate of malaria vectors. Targeting swarms of major malaria vectors may provide an effective control method to counteract behavioral resistance developed by mosquitoes. Here, we evaluated the impact of systematic spraying of swarms of Anopheles gambiae s.l. using a mixed carbamate and pyrethroid aerosol. The impact of this intervention on vector density, female insemination rates and the age structure of males was measured. We showed that the resulting mass killing of swarming males and some mate-seeking females resulted in a dramatic 80% decrease in population size compared to a control population. A significant decrease in female insemination rate and a significant shift in the age structure of the male population towards younger males incapable of mating were observed. This paradigm-shift study therefore demonstrates that targeting primarily males rather than females, can have a drastic impact on mosquito population. PMID:28278212

  5. Microfinance against malaria: impact of Freedom from Hunger's malaria education when delivered by rural banks in Ghana.

    PubMed

    De La Cruz, Natalie; Crookston, Benjamin; Gray, Bobbi; Alder, Steve; Dearden, Kirk

    2009-12-01

    A community randomized pre-test/post-test design was used to compare the knowledge and behaviors of microfinance clients receiving malaria education (n=213) to those receiving diarrhea education (n=223) and to non-client controls (n=268). Comparisons assessed differences at follow-up as well as within-group changes over time. At follow-up, malaria clients had significantly better malaria knowledge than comparison groups: 48.4% of malaria clients were able to identify groups most vulnerable to malaria compared with 39.2% of diarrhea clients (P=0.044) and 37.7% of non-clients (P=0.024). Malaria clients were more likely than diarrhea clients (P=0.024) (P<0.001) and non-clients (P=0.028) (P=0.004) to report that insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) provide the best protection against malaria, and to agree that pregnant women should use ITNs, respectively. Between baseline and follow-up, malaria clients were most likely to: improve in knowledge of malaria complications during pregnancy; to own at least one bed net; and to report at least one child or woman of reproductive age sleeping under a bed net. Malaria clients also experienced the greatest increases in ITN ownership/use (9% vs. 2.9% and 6.7% among diarrhea clients and non-clients). Results indicate that, although significant barriers to malaria control remain, a malaria education program provided by microfinance institutions can effectively contribute to community and national malaria initiatives.

  6. Rapid assessment of malaria transmission using age-specific sero-conversion rates.

    PubMed

    Stewart, Laveta; Gosling, Roly; Griffin, Jamie; Gesase, Samwel; Campo, Joseph; Hashim, Ramadan; Masika, Paul; Mosha, Jacklin; Bousema, Teun; Shekalaghe, Seif; Cook, Jackie; Corran, Patrick; Ghani, Azra; Riley, Eleanor M; Drakeley, Chris

    2009-06-29

    Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR), which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-1(19) and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-1(19) and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-1(19) 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-1(19) 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-1(19) r(2) = 0.78, p<0.01 & AMA-1 r(2) = 0.91, p

  7. Rapid Assessment of Malaria Transmission Using Age-Specific Sero-Conversion Rates

    PubMed Central

    Stewart, Laveta; Gosling, Roly; Griffin, Jamie; Gesase, Samwel; Campo, Joseph; Hashim, Ramadan; Masika, Paul; Mosha, Jacklin; Bousema, Teun; Shekalaghe, Seif; Cook, Jackie; Corran, Patrick; Ghani, Azra; Riley, Eleanor M.; Drakeley, Chris

    2009-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR), which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-119 and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-119 and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-119 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-119 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-119 r2

  8. Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

    PubMed

    Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

    2013-12-01

    Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

  9. Psychosomatics of malaria.

    PubMed

    Houghton, D L

    1980-03-01

    Cerebral malaria with psychosomatic manifestations is one aspect of malaria which may be mistaken for mental illness. However, the psychosomatic aspects of the disease also relate to the biological, psychological and social influences which may determine changes in disease incidence and distribution. The history of the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign and the resurgence of malaria in many countries of the world have influenced attitudes and the professional milieu in which present day malaria control programmes seek to operate. The individual in a malarious area may obstruct malaria control operations by refusing to allow indoor spraying or to take prophylactic medication. Cultural beliefs often described the history of malaria in a community and the way in which the community had come to terms with this disease. Socio-economic development and population movement may disturb this equilibrium and result in a rise in malaria incidence. Behavioural habits may increase malaria risk and the degree to which the community is prepared to become involved in malaria control may influence its experience with the disease.

  10. Considerations for use of the RORA program to estimate ground-water recharge from streamflow records

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rutledge, A.T.

    2000-01-01

    The RORA program can be used to estimate ground-water recharge in a basin from analysis of a streamflow record. The program can be appropriate for use if the ground-water flow system is characterized by diffuse areal recharge to the water table and discharge to a stream. The use of the program requires an estimate of a recession index, which is the time required for ground-water discharge to recede by one log cycle after recession becomes linear or near-linear on the semilog hydrograph. Although considerable uncertainty is inherent in the recession index, the results of the RORA program may not be sensitive to this variable. Testing shows that the program can yield consistent estimates under conditions that include leakage to or from deeper aquifers and ground-water evapotranspiration. These tests indicate that RORA estimates the net recharge, which is recharge to the water table minus leakage to a deeper aquifer, or recharge minus ground-water evapotranspiration. Before the program begins making calculations it designates days that fit a requirement of antecedent recession, and these days are used in calculations. The program user might increase the antecedent-recession requirement above its default value to reduce the influence of errors that are caused by direct-surface runoff, but other errors can result from the reduction in the number of peaks detected. To obtain an understanding of flow systems, results from the RORA program might be used in conjunction with other methods such as analysis of ground-water levels, estimates of ground-water discharge from other forms of hydrograph separation, and low-flow variables. Relations among variables may be complex for a variety of reasons; for example, there may not be a unique relation between ground-water level and ground-water discharge, ground-water recharge and discharge are not synchronous, and low-flow variables can be related to other factors such as the recession index.

  11. New accuracy estimators for genomic selection with application in a cassava (Manihot esculenta) breeding program.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, C F; Resende, M D V; Silva, F F; Viana, J M S; Valente, M S F; Resende, M F R; Oliveira, E J

    2016-10-05

    Genomic selection is the main force driving applied breeding programs and accuracy is the main measure for evaluating its efficiency. The traditional estimator (TE) of experimental accuracy is not fully adequate. This study proposes and evaluates the performance and efficiency of two new accuracy estimators, called regularized estimator (RE) and hybrid estimator (HE), which were applied to a practical cassava breeding program and also to simulated data. The simulation study considered two individual narrow sense heritability levels and two genetic architectures for traits. TE, RE, and HE were compared under four validation procedures: without validation (WV), independent validation, ten-fold validation through jacknife allowing different markers, and with the same markers selected in each cycle. RE presented accuracies closer to the parametric ones and less biased and more precise ones than TE. HE proved to be very effective in the WV procedure. The estimators were applied to five traits evaluated in a cassava experiment, including 358 clones genotyped for 390 SNPs. Accuracies ranged from 0.67 to 1.12 with TE and from 0.22 to 0.51 with RE. These results indicated that TE overestimated the accuracy and led to one accuracy estimate (1.12) higher than one, which is outside of the parameter space. Use of RE turned the accuracy into the parameter space. Cassava breeding programs can be more realistically implemented using the new estimators proposed in this study, providing less risky practical inferences.

  12. Measuring Coverage in MNCH: Accuracy of Measuring Diagnosis and Treatment of Childhood Malaria from Household Surveys in Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Eisele, Thomas P.; Silumbe, Kafula; Yukich, Josh; Hamainza, Busiku; Keating, Joseph; Bennett, Adam; Miller, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Background To assess progress in the scale-up of rapid diagnostic tests and artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) across Africa, malaria control programs have increasingly relied on standardized national household surveys to determine the proportion of children with a fever in the past 2 wk who received an effective antimalarial within 1–2 d of the onset of fever. Here, the validity of caregiver recall for measuring the primary coverage indicators for malaria diagnosis and treatment of children <5 y old is assessed. Methods and Findings A cross-sectional study was conducted in five public clinics in Kaoma District, Western Provence, Zambia, to estimate the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of caregivers' recall of malaria testing, diagnosis, and treatment, compared to a gold standard of direct observation at the health clinics. Compared to the gold standard of clinic observation, for recall for children with fever in the past 2 wk, the sensitivity for recalling that a finger/heel stick was done was 61.9%, with a specificity of 90.0%. The sensitivity and specificity of caregivers' recalling a positive malaria test result were 62.4% and 90.7%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of recalling that the child was given a malaria diagnosis, irrespective of whether a laboratory test was actually done, were 76.8% and 75.9%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity for recalling that an ACT was given were 81.0% and 91.5%, respectively. Conclusions Based on these findings, results from household surveys should continue to be used for ascertaining the coverage of children with a fever in the past 2 wk that received an ACT. However, as recall of a malaria diagnosis remains suboptimal, its use in defining malaria treatment coverage is not recommended. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23667337

  13. Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in India.

    PubMed

    Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Shah, Naman; Dhariwal, Akshay C; Sonal, Gagan Singh; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Ghosh, Susanta K; Valecha, Neena

    2016-12-28

    Historically, malaria in India was predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax, accounting for 53% of the estimated cases. After the spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the 1990s, the prevalence of the two species remained equivalent at the national level for a decade. By 2014, the proportion of P. vivax has decreased to 34% nationally, but with high regional variation. In 2014, P. vivax accounted for around 380,000 malaria cases in India; almost a sixth of all P. vivax cases reported globally. Plasmodium vivax has remained resistant to control measures, particularly in urban areas. Urban malaria is predominantly caused by P. vivax and is subject to outbreaks, often associated with increased mortality, and triggered by bursts of migration and construction. The epidemiology of P. vivax varies substantially within India, including multiple relapse phenotypes with varying latencies between primary infection and relapse. Moreover, the hypnozoite reservoir maintains transmission potential and enables reestablishment of the parasite in areas in which it was thought eradicated. The burden of malaria in India is complex because of the highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, transmission factors, and the presence of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors. This review of P. vivax malaria in India describes epidemiological trends with particular attention to four states: Gujarat, Karnataka, Haryana, and Odisha.

  14. Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in India

    PubMed Central

    Anvikar, Anupkumar R.; Shah, Naman; Dhariwal, Akshay C.; Sonal, Gagan Singh; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Ghosh, Susanta K.; Valecha, Neena

    2016-01-01

    Historically, malaria in India was predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax, accounting for 53% of the estimated cases. After the spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the 1990s, the prevalence of the two species remained equivalent at the national level for a decade. By 2014, the proportion of P. vivax has decreased to 34% nationally, but with high regional variation. In 2014, P. vivax accounted for around 380,000 malaria cases in India; almost a sixth of all P. vivax cases reported globally. Plasmodium vivax has remained resistant to control measures, particularly in urban areas. Urban malaria is predominantly caused by P. vivax and is subject to outbreaks, often associated with increased mortality, and triggered by bursts of migration and construction. The epidemiology of P. vivax varies substantially within India, including multiple relapse phenotypes with varying latencies between primary infection and relapse. Moreover, the hypnozoite reservoir maintains transmission potential and enables reestablishment of the parasite in areas in which it was thought eradicated. The burden of malaria in India is complex because of the highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, transmission factors, and the presence of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors. This review of P. vivax malaria in India describes epidemiological trends with particular attention to four states: Gujarat, Karnataka, Haryana, and Odisha. PMID:27708188

  15. A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Shu; Zhou, Quan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2016-01-01

    Direction of arrival (DOA) estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA) is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS), and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP). We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion. PMID:27999397

  16. A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation.

    PubMed

    Cai, Shu; Zhou, Quan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2016-12-20

    Direction of arrival (DOA) estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA) is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS), and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP). We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion.

  17. Evidence from a natural experiment that malaria parasitemia is pathogenic in retinopathy-negative cerebral malaria

    PubMed Central

    Small, Dylan S; Taylor, Terrie E; Postels, Douglas G; Beare, Nicholas AV; Cheng, Jing; MacCormick, Ian JC; Seydel, Karl B

    2017-01-01

    Cerebral malaria (CM) can be classified as retinopathy-positive or retinopathy-negative, based on the presence or absence of characteristic retinal features. While malaria parasites are considered central to the pathogenesis of retinopathy-positive CM, their contribution to retinopathy-negative CM is largely unknown. One theory is that malaria parasites are innocent bystanders in retinopathy-negative CM and the etiology of the coma is entirely non-malarial. Because hospitals in malaria-endemic areas often lack diagnostic facilities to identify non-malarial causes of coma, it has not been possible to evaluate the contribution of malaria infection to retinopathy-negative CM. To overcome this barrier, we studied a natural experiment involving genetically inherited traits, and find evidence that malaria parasitemia does contribute to the pathogenesis of retinopathy-negative CM. A lower bound for the fraction of retinopathy-negative CM that would be prevented if malaria parasitemia were to be eliminated is estimated to be 0.93 (95% confidence interval: 0.68, 1). DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23699.001 PMID:28590246

  18. Collecting baseline information for national morbidity alleviation programs: different methods to estimate lymphatic filariasis morbidity prevalence.

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Els; Amann, Josef; Eigege, Abel; Richards, Frank; Sodahlon, Yao

    2008-01-01

    The lymphatic filariasis elimination program aims not only to stop transmission, but also to alleviate morbidity. Although geographically limited morbidity projects exist, few have been implemented nationally. For advocacy and planning, the program coordinators need prevalence estimates that are currently rarely available. This article compares several approaches to estimate morbidity prevalence: (1) data routinely collected during mapping or sentinel site activities; (2) data collected during drug coverage surveys; and (3) alternative surveys. Data were collected in Plateau and Nasarawa States in Nigeria and in 6 districts in Togo. In both settings, we found that questionnaires seem to underestimate the morbidity prevalence compared with existing information collected through clinical examination. We suggest that program managers use the latter for advocacy and planning, but if not available, questionnaires to estimate morbidity prevalence can be added to existing surveys. Even though such data will most likely underestimate the real burden of disease, they can be useful in resource-limited settings.

  19. Congenital malaria in China.

    PubMed

    Tao, Zhi-Yong; Fang, Qiang; Liu, Xue; Culleton, Richard; Tao, Li; Xia, Hui; Gao, Qi

    2014-03-01

    Congenital malaria, in which infants are directly infected with malaria parasites from their mother prior to or during birth, is a potentially life-threatening condition that occurs at relatively low rates in malaria-endemic regions. It is recognized as a serious problem in Plasmodium falciparum-endemic sub-Saharan Africa, where recent data suggests that it is more common than previously believed. In such regions where malaria transmission is high, neonates may be protected from disease caused by congenital malaria through the transfer of maternal antibodies against the parasite. However, in low P. vivax-endemic regions, immunity to vivax malaria is low; thus, there is the likelihood that congenital vivax malaria poses a more significant threat to newborn health. Malaria had previously been a major parasitic disease in China, and congenital malaria case reports in Chinese offer valuable information for understanding the risks posed by congenital malaria to neonatal health. As most of the literature documenting congenital malaria cases in China are written in Chinese and therefore are not easily accessible to the global malaria research community, we have undertaken an extensive review of the Chinese literature on this subject. Here, we reviewed congenital malaria cases from three major searchable Chinese journal databases, concentrating on data from 1915 through 2011. Following extensive screening, a total of 104 cases of congenital malaria were identified. These cases were distributed mainly in the eastern, central, and southern regions of China, as well as in the low-lying region of southwest China. The dominant species was P. vivax (92.50%), reflecting the malaria parasite species distribution in China. The leading clinical presentation was fever, and other clinical presentations were anaemia, jaundice, paleness, diarrhoea, vomiting, and general weakness. With the exception of two cases, all patients were cured with antimalarial drugs such as chloroquine

  20. Congenital Malaria in China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Xue; Culleton, Richard; Tao, Li; Xia, Hui; Gao, Qi

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background Congenital malaria, in which infants are directly infected with malaria parasites from their mother prior to or during birth, is a potentially life-threatening condition that occurs at relatively low rates in malaria-endemic regions. It is recognized as a serious problem in Plasmodium falciparum–endemic sub-Saharan Africa, where recent data suggests that it is more common than previously believed. In such regions where malaria transmission is high, neonates may be protected from disease caused by congenital malaria through the transfer of maternal antibodies against the parasite. However, in low P. vivax–endemic regions, immunity to vivax malaria is low; thus, there is the likelihood that congenital vivax malaria poses a more significant threat to newborn health. Malaria had previously been a major parasitic disease in China, and congenital malaria case reports in Chinese offer valuable information for understanding the risks posed by congenital malaria to neonatal health. As most of the literature documenting congenital malaria cases in China are written in Chinese and therefore are not easily accessible to the global malaria research community, we have undertaken an extensive review of the Chinese literature on this subject. Methods/Principal Findings Here, we reviewed congenital malaria cases from three major searchable Chinese journal databases, concentrating on data from 1915 through 2011. Following extensive screening, a total of 104 cases of congenital malaria were identified. These cases were distributed mainly in the eastern, central, and southern regions of China, as well as in the low-lying region of southwest China. The dominant species was P. vivax (92.50%), reflecting the malaria parasite species distribution in China. The leading clinical presentation was fever, and other clinical presentations were anaemia, jaundice, paleness, diarrhoea, vomiting, and general weakness. With the exception of two cases, all patients were cured

  1. Hospitalizations and Costs Incurred at the Facility Level after Scale-up of Malaria Control: Pre-Post Comparisons from Two Hospitals in Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Comfort, Alison B.; van Dijk, Janneke H.; Mharakurwa, Sungano; Stillman, Kathryn; Gabert, Rose; Korde, Sonali; Nachbar, Nancy; Derriennic, Yann; Musau, Stephen; Hamazakaza, Petan; Zyambo, Khozya D.; Zyongwe, Nancy M.; Hamainza, Busiku; Thuma, Philip E.

    2014-01-01

    There is little evidence on the impact of malaria control on the health system, particularly at the facility level. Using retrospective, longitudinal facility-level and patient record data from two hospitals in Zambia, we report a pre-post comparison of hospital admissions and outpatient visits for malaria and estimated costs incurred for malaria admissions before and after malaria control scale-up. The results show a substantial reduction in inpatient admissions and outpatient visits for malaria at both hospitals after the scale-up, and malaria cases accounted for a smaller proportion of total hospital visits over time. Hospital spending on malaria admissions also decreased. In one hospital, malaria accounted for 11% of total hospital spending before large-scale malaria control compared with < 1% after malaria control. The findings demonstrate that facility-level resources are freed up as malaria is controlled, potentially making these resources available for other diseases and conditions. PMID:24218409

  2. A quantitative approach to recommendations on malaria prophylaxis

    PubMed Central

    Pappaioanou, M.; Lobel, H. O.; Campbell, C. C.

    1988-01-01

    In order to develop recommendations for malaria prophylaxis, a quantitative method is needed to balance the risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections against the toxicity of antimalarial drugs. Using decision analysis, we estimated the expected mortality associated with three alternative regimens of prophylactic drugs for visitors to three areas with different risks of infection with chloroquine-resistant P. falciparum. The model used took into account the risks of malaria and of adverse reactions to antimalarial drugs. Estimates of the parameters used in the analysis were based on observations made on U.S. travellers. Reducing the risk of malaria infection was found to have a far greater impact on lowering the expected mortality than that of increasing the chemoprophylactic efficacy of the drugs used, thereby emphasizing the need for travellers to use anti-mosquito measures in malarious areas. The analytical method described can be used to define optimal malaria prevention strategies. PMID:3048761

  3. Kinetic parameters estimation in an anaerobic digestion process using successive quadratic programming.

    PubMed

    Aceves-Lara, C A; Aguilar-Garnica, E; Alcaraz-González, V; González-Reynoso, O; Steyer, J P; Dominguez-Beltran, J L; González-Alvarez, V

    2005-01-01

    In this work, an optimization method is implemented in an anaerobic digestion model to estimate its kinetic parameters and yield coefficients. This method combines the use of advanced state estimation schemes and powerful nonlinear programming techniques to yield fast and accurate estimates of the aforementioned parameters. In this method, we first implement an asymptotic observer to provide estimates of the non-measured variables (such as biomass concentration) and good guesses for the initial conditions of the parameter estimation algorithm. These results are then used by the successive quadratic programming (SQP) technique to calculate the kinetic parameters and yield coefficients of the anaerobic digestion process. The model, provided with the estimated parameters, is tested with experimental data from a pilot-scale fixed bed reactor treating raw industrial wine distillery wastewater. It is shown that SQP reaches a fast and accurate estimation of the kinetic parameters despite highly noise corrupted experimental data and time varying inputs variables. A statistical analysis is also performed to validate the combined estimation method. Finally, a comparison between the proposed method and the traditional Marquardt technique shows that both yield similar results; however, the calculation time of the traditional technique is considerable higher than that of the proposed method.

  4. Malaria: Global progress 2000 - 2015 and future challenges.

    PubMed

    Cibulskis, Richard E; Alonso, Pedro; Aponte, John; Aregawi, Maru; Barrette, Amy; Bergeron, Laurent; Fergus, Cristin A; Knox, Tessa; Lynch, Michael; Patouillard, Edith; Schwarte, Silvia; Stewart, Saira; Williams, Ryan

    2016-06-09

    2015 was the target year for malaria goals set by the World Health Assembly and other international institutions to reduce malaria incidence and mortality. A review of progress indicates that malaria programme financing and coverage have been transformed since the beginning of the millennium, and have contributed to substantial reductions in the burden of disease. Investments in malaria programmes increased by more than 2.5 times between 2005 and 2014 from US$ 960 million to US$ 2.5 billion, allowing an expansion in malaria prevention, diagnostic testing and treatment programmes. In 2015 more than half of the population of sub-Saharan Africa slept under insecticide-treated mosquito nets, compared to just 2 % in 2000. Increased availability of rapid diagnostic tests and antimalarial medicines has allowed many more people to access timely and appropriate treatment. Malaria incidence rates have decreased by 37 % globally and mortality rates by 60 % since 2000. It is estimated that 70 % of the reductions in numbers of cases in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to malaria interventions. Reductions in malaria incidence and mortality rates have been made in every WHO region and almost every country. However, decreases in malaria case incidence and mortality rates were slowest in countries that had the largest numbers of malaria cases and deaths in 2000; reductions in incidence need to be greatly accelerated in these countries to achieve future malaria targets. Progress is made challenging because malaria is concentrated in countries and areas with the least resourced health systems and the least ability to pay for system improvements. Malaria interventions are nevertheless highly cost-effective and have not only led to significant reductions in the incidence of the disease but are estimated to have saved about US$ 900 million in malaria case management costs to public providers in sub-Saharan Africa between 2000 and 2014. Investments in malaria programmes can not

  5. Temporal trends in severe malaria in Chittagong, Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Maude, Richard James; Hasan, Mahtab Uddin; Hossain, Md Amir; Sayeed, Abdullah Abu; Kanti Paul, Sanjib; Rahman, Waliur; Maude, Rapeephan Rattanawongnara; Vaid, Nidhi; Ghose, Aniruddha; Amin, Robed; Samad, Rasheda; Yunus, Emran Bin; Rahman, M Ridwanur; Bangali, Abdul M; Hoque, M Gofranul; Day, Nicholas P J; White, Nicholas J; White, Lisa J; Dondorp, Arjen M; Faiz, M Abul

    2012-09-12

    Epidemiological data on malaria in Bangladesh are sparse, particularly on severe and fatal malaria. This hampers the allocation of healthcare provision in this resource-poor setting. Over 85% of the estimated 150,000-250,000 annual malaria cases in Bangladesh occur in Chittagong Division with 80% in the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Chittagong Medical College Hospital (CMCH) is the major tertiary referral hospital for severe malaria in Chittagong Division. Malaria screening data from 22,785 inpatients in CMCH from 1999-2011 were analysed to investigate the patterns of referral, temporal trends and geographical distribution of severe malaria in Chittagong Division, Bangladesh. From 1999 till 2011, 2,394 malaria cases were admitted, of which 96% harboured Plasmodium falciparum and 4% Plasmodium vivax. Infection was commonest in males (67%) between 15 and 34 years of age. Seasonality of malaria incidence was marked with a single peak in P. falciparum transmission from June to August coinciding with peak rainfall, whereas P. vivax showed an additional peak in February-March possibly representing relapse infections. Since 2007 there has been a substantial decrease in the absolute number of admitted malaria cases. Case fatality in severe malaria was 18% from 2008-2011, remaining steady during this period.A travel history obtained in 226 malaria patients revealed only 33% had been to the CHT in the preceding three weeks. Of all admitted malaria patients, only 9% lived in the CHT, and none in the more remote malaria endemic regions near the Indian border. The overall decline in admitted malaria cases to CMCH suggests recent control measures are successful. However, there are no reliable data on the incidence of severe malaria in the CHT, the most endemic area of Bangladesh, and most of these patients do not reach tertiary health facilities. Improvement of early treatment and simple supportive care for severe malaria in remote areas and implementation of a referral system

  6. Prevalence of malaria among patients attending public health facilities in Maputo City, Mozambique.

    PubMed

    Macedo de Oliveira, Alexandre; Mutemba, Rosalia; Morgan, Juliette; Streat, Elizabeth; Roberts, Jacquelin; Menon, Manoj; Mabunda, Samuel

    2011-12-01

    We conducted a health facility-based survey to estimate the prevalence of malaria among febrile patients at health facilities (HFs) in Maputo City. Patients answered a questionnaire on malaria risk factors and underwent malaria testing. A malaria case was defined as a positive result for malaria by microscopy in a patient with fever or history of fever in the previous 24 hours. Among 706 patients with complete information, 111 (15.7%) cases were identified: 105 were positive for Plasmodium falciparum only, two for Plasmodium ovale only, and four for both P. falciparum and P. ovale. Fever documented at study enrollment, age ≥ 5 years, rural HF, and travel outside Maputo City were statistically significantly associated with malaria by multivariate analysis. We found a high prevalence of laboratory-confirmed malaria among febrile patients in Maputo City. Further studies are needed to relate these findings with mosquito density to better support malaria prevention and control.

  7. Smolt Monitoring Program, Part I, Estimation of Survival, 1985 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Fish Passage Center

    1986-02-01

    The annual Smolt Monitoring Program is the result of implementation of Section 304(d)(2) of the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program. Survival was monitored for specific marked groups of steelhead and spring chinook. Survival through the mid-Columbia from Winthrop Hatchery and the Methow River to below Priest Rapids Dam was estimated. Estimation of survival of marked groups of steelhead from Little Goose Dam to below Ice Harbor Dam was attempted. Serious problems were evident in the Snake River survival data. A release strategy which avoids holding of control groups was tested with satisfactory results.

  8. Informing Estimates of Program Effects for Studies of Mathematics Professional Development Using Teacher Content Knowledge Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Phelps, Geoffrey; Kelcey, Benjamin; Jones, Nathan; Liu, Shuangshuang

    2016-10-03

    Mathematics professional development is widely offered, typically with the goal of improving teachers' content knowledge, the quality of teaching, and ultimately students' achievement. Recently, new assessments focused on mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) have been developed to assist in the evaluation and improvement of mathematics professional development. This study presents empirical estimates of average program change in MKT and its variation with the goal of supporting the design of experimental trials that are adequately powered to detect a specified program effect. The study drew on a large database representing five different assessments of MKT and collectively 326 professional development programs and 9,365 teachers. Results from cross-classified hierarchical growth models found that standardized average change estimates across the five assessments ranged from a low of 0.16 standard deviations (SDs) to a high of 0.26 SDs. Power analyses using the estimated pre- and posttest change estimates indicated that hundreds of teachers are needed to detect changes in knowledge at the lower end of the distribution. Even studies powered to detect effects at the higher end of the distribution will require substantial resources to conduct rigorous experimental trials. Empirical benchmarks that describe average program change and its variation provide a useful preliminary resource for interpreting the relative magnitude of effect sizes associated with professional development programs and for designing adequately powered trials.

  9. Ikonos-derived malaria transmission risk in northwestern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Sithiprasasna, Ratana; Ugsang, Donald M; Honda, Kiyoshi; Jones, James W; Singhasivanon, Pratap

    2005-01-01

    We mapped overall malaria cases and located each field observed major malaria vector breeding habitat using Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments from September 2000 to October 2003 around the three malaria-endemic villages of Ban Khun Huay, Ban Pa Dae, and Ban Tham Seau, Mae Sod district, Tak Province, Thailand. The land-use/land-cover classifications of the three villages and surrounding areas were performed on IKONOS satellite images acquired on 12 November 2001 with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 m. Stream network was delineated and displayed. Proximity analysis was performed on the locations of the houses with and without malaria cases within a 1.5 km buffer from An. minimus immature mosquito breeding habitats, mainly stream margins. The 1.5 km used in our proximity analysis was arbitrarily estimated based on the An. minimus flight range. A statistical t-test at 5% significance level was performed to evaluate whether houses with malaria cases have higher proximities to streams than houses without malaria cases. The result shows no significant difference between proximity to streams between houses with malaria cases and houses without malaria cases. We suspect that the actual flight range of An. minimus may be greater than 1.5 km. The An. minimus larval habitat deserves more detailed investigation. Further studies on human behavior contrary to that required for adequate malaria control among these three villages are also recommended.

  10. Sound Cost Estimating: A Pre-Requisite to Ascertaining Affordability of DoD Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-01

    predictions, especially about the future,” has been variously attributed to Niels Bohr , Mark Twain and, of course, Yogi Berra. In his best-selling...critical for program success: con-ducting a sound program life cycle cost estimate and establishing a program’s budget. These two processes are...supposedly “on-track” is one strategy to provide early warning about problems before they become un- manageable. A sound cost esti- mate is a neces- sary

  11. Computer programs for estimating aircraft takeoff performance in three dimensional space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, J. V.

    1974-01-01

    A set of computer programs has been developed to estimate the takeoff and initial climb-out maneuver of a given aircraft in three-dimensional space. The program is applicable to conventional, vectored lift and power-lift concept aircraft. The aircraft is treated as a point mass flying over a flat earth with no side slip, and the rotational dynamics have been neglected. The required input is described and a sample case presented.

  12. Malaria prophylaxis and guidelines.

    PubMed

    Calleri, Guido

    2014-10-01

    Malaria prophylaxis recommendations issued by different health authorities in Europe are inhomogeneous, and so is the opinion of experts, but a general trend towards reducing its use is evident, and prescribers apparently adhere more easily to more restrictive recommendations. A new Italian guideline has been produced, looking both at scientific evidence (data on malaria risk and drugs' side effects) and at the opinion of experts (surveys and previously issued recommendations). Collecting data on imported malaria, stating a clear methodology and introduce a discussion at international level should be the next goals in order to homogenise recommendations for malaria prophylaxis in Europe.

  13. Vaccines Against Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Ouattara, Amed; Laurens, Matthew B.

    2015-01-01

    Despite global efforts to control malaria, the illness remains a significant public health threat. Currently, there is no licensed vaccine against malaria, but an efficacious vaccine would represent an important public health tool for successful malaria elimination. Malaria vaccine development continues to be hindered by a poor understanding of antimalarial immunity, a lack of an immune correlate of protection, and the genetic diversity of malaria parasites. Current vaccine development efforts largely target Plasmodium falciparum parasites in the pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic stages, with some research on transmission-blocking vaccines against asexual stages and vaccines against pregnancy-associated malaria. The leading pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate is RTS,S, and early results of ongoing Phase 3 testing show overall efficacy of 46% against clinical malaria. The next steps for malaria vaccine development will focus on the design of a product that is efficacious against the highly diverse strains of malaria and the identification of a correlate of protection against disease. PMID:25452593

  14. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  15. Laboratory diagnosis of malaria: conventional and rapid diagnostic methods.

    PubMed

    Wilson, Michael L

    2013-06-01

    The global control of malaria is more challenging than that of many other infectious diseases: malaria is vector borne, it is caused by 5 species of Plasmodium with different geographic distributions, infection is widespread in many regions, drug resistance is common, and the disease overlaps clinically with other infectious diseases. Therefore, malaria control programs, in addition to diagnosis and testing, must also target limiting spread of the disease through vector control. Although malaria control efforts have been successful in some regions, malaria remains one of the most important causes of death in sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in women and children. To review the current literature regarding diagnostic methods available to detect clinical malaria, with an emphasis on comparing the strengths and limitations of each method. Current World Health Organization malaria control report and other information, recent meta-analyses of diagnostic tests, primary literature concerning the performance characteristics of different tests, and primary literature concerning how diagnostic tests are used in daily practice. The most commonly used method for identifying cases of malaria remains microscopic examination of peripheral blood, but there is growing use of malaria rapid diagnostic tests in many regions. One of the most important findings in the recent literature is that despite the widespread use of diagnostic tests, treatment is too often based on clinical findings rather than on results of diagnostic tests.

  16. Implications of Malaria On Iron Deficiency Control Strategies123

    PubMed Central

    Spottiswoode, Natasha; Fried, Michal; Drakesmith, Hal

    2012-01-01

    The populations in greatest need of iron supplementation are also those at greatest risk of malaria: pregnant women and young children. Iron supplementation has been shown to increase malaria risk in these groups in numerous studies, although this effect is likely diminished by factors such as host immunity, host iron status, and effective malaria surveillance and control. Conversely, the risk of anemia is increased by malaria infections and preventive measures against malaria decrease anemia prevalence in susceptible populations without iron supplementation. Studies have shown that subjects with malaria experience diminished absorption of orally administered iron, so that as a consequence, iron supplementation may have generally reduced efficacy in malarious populations. A possible mechanistic link between malaria, poor absorption of iron, and anemia is provided by recent research on hepcidin, the human iron control hormone. Our improved understanding of iron metabolism may contribute to the control of malaria and the treatment of anemia. Malaria surveillance and control are necessary components of programs to control iron deficiency and may enhance the efficacy of iron supplementation. PMID:22797994

  17. A cost-effectiveness analysis of artemether lumefantrine for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Chanda, Pascalina; Masiye, Felix; Chitah, Bona M; Sipilanyambe, Naawa; Hawela, Moonga; Banda, Patrick; Okorosobo, Tuoyo

    2007-01-01

    Background Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and non-fatal disability in Zambia, especially among children, pregnant women and the poor. Data gathered by the National Malaria Control Centre has shown that recently observed widespread treatment failure of SP and chloroquine precipitated a surge in malaria-related morbidity and mortality. As a result, the Government has recently replaced chloroquine and SP with combination therapy as first-line treatment for malaria. Despite the acclaimed therapeutic advantages of ACTs over monotherapies with SP and CQ, the cost of ACTs is much greater, raising concerns about affordability in many poor countries such as Zambia. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness analysis of artemether-lumefantrine, a version of ACTs adopted in Zambia in mid 2004. Methods Using data gathered from patients presenting at public health facilities with suspected malaria, the costs and effects of using ACTs versus SP as first-line treatment for malaria were estimated. The study was conducted in six district sites. Treatment success and reduction in demand for second line treatment constituted the main effectiveness outcomes. The study gathered data on the efficacy of, and compliance to, AL and SP treatment from a random sample of patients. Costs are based on estimated drug, labour, operational and capital inputs. Drug costs were based on dosages and unit prices provided by the Ministry of Health and the manufacturer (Norvatis). Findings The results suggest that AL produces successful treatment at less cost than SP, implying that AL is more cost-effective. While it is acknowledged that implementing national ACT program will require considerable resources, the study demonstrates that the health gains (treatment success) from every dollar spent are significantly greater if AL is used rather than SP. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is estimated to be US$4.10. When the costs of second line treatment are considered the

  18. A stump-to-truck cost estimating program for cable logging young-growth Douglas-fir

    Treesearch

    Chris B. LeDoux

    1989-01-01

    WCOST is a computer program designed to estimate the stump-to-truck logging cost of cable logging young-growth Douglas-fir. The program uses data from stand inventory, cruise data, and the logging plan for the tract in question to produce detailed stump-to-truck cost estimates for specific proposed timber sales. These estimates are then used, in combination with...

  19. Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

    Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

  20. Assessing the Performance of the "Counterfactual as Self-Estimated by Program Participants": Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mueller, Christoph Emanuel; Gaus, Hansjoerg

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we test an alternative approach to creating a counterfactual basis for estimating individual and average treatment effects. Instead of using control/comparison groups or before-measures, the so-called Counterfactual as Self-Estimated by Program Participants (CSEPP) relies on program participants' self-estimations of their own…

  1. Increasing burden of childhood severe malaria in a Nigerian tertiary hospital: implication for control.

    PubMed

    Orimadegun, Adebola Emmanuel; Fawole, Olufunmi; Okereke, James Okorie; Akinbami, Felix Olukayode; Sodeinde, Olugbemiro

    2007-06-01

    Malaria remains an important public heath concern in Nigeria because of its impact on child and maternal health, but the contribution of severe malaria to morbidity among Nigerian children was scantly reported. This study was undertaking to document the hospital-burden of severe malaria among children in Ibadan in order to reflect on the impacts and health implications of the current malaria control strategies. A review of 6-year case records of all children admitted to the emergency ward of the University College Hospital Ibadan was carried out. Cases of severe malaria were defined as those children in whom parasitaemia were confirmed with blood film microscopy and any of the WHO case definitions for severe malaria was documented. Severe malaria cases constituted 11.3% of 16 031 admissions (2000-05) with 89.1% being children <5 years old. Cerebral malaria accounted for about one-fifth (19.7%) of all severe malaria cases. The yearly proportional morbidity rate from severe malaria ranged from 8.7% to 13.2% with significant increase from 2000 to 2004 (X2 = 48.49; df = 5; P < 0.001). Severe malaria accounted for 12.4% of all paediatric deaths with an estimated overall case fatality rate of 9.6%. Deaths from malaria were significantly associated with wasting (Z-score for weight-for-height malaria over the study period. Severe malarial anaemia was a more common complication of Plasmodium falciparum malaria than cerebral malaria in hospitalized Nigerian children and it was associated with a high number of deaths. The consequences of high rate of severe malaria may be beyond health as it also affects the economy and the developmental prospects of the country. There may therefore a need to review the current strategies for malaria control in Nigeria.

  2. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-12

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  3. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  4. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  5. The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

    2002-01-01

    For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

  6. A SAS/IML program using the Kalman filter for estimating state space models.

    PubMed

    Gu, Fei; Yung, Yiu-Fai

    2013-03-01

    To help disseminate the knowledge and software implementation of a state space model (SSM), this article provides a SAS/IML (SAS Institute, 2010) program for estimating the parameters of general linear Gaussian SSMs using the Kalman filter algorithm. In order to use this program, the user should have SAS installed on a computer and have a valid license for SAS/IML. Since the code is completely open, it is expected that this program can be used not only by applied researchers, but also by quantitative methodologists who are interested in improving their methods and promoting SSM as a research instrument.

  7. Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 3: Research and program management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The research and program management (R&PM) appropriation provides the salaries, other personnel and related costs, and travel support for NASA's civil service workforce. This FY 1994 budget funds costs associated with 23,623 full-time equivalent (FTE) work years. Budget estimates are provided for all NASA centers by categories such as space station and new technology investments, space flight programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences, advanced concepts and technology, center management and operations support, launch services, mission to planet earth, tracking and data programs, aeronautical research and technology, and safety, reliability, and quality assurance.

  8. Sampling protocol, estimation, and analysis procedures for the down woody materials indicator of the FIA program

    Treesearch

    Christopher W. Woodall; Vicente J. Monleon

    2008-01-01

    The USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program conducts an inventory of forests of the United States including down woody materials (DWM). In this report we provide the rationale and context for a national inventory of DWM, describe the components sampled, discuss the sampling protocol used and corresponding estimation procedures, and provide...

  9. Sampling protocol, estimation, and analysis procedures for the down woody materials indicator of the FIA program

    Treesearch

    Christopher Woodall; Michael Williams

    2005-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service conducts a national inventory of forests of the United States. A subset of FIA permanent inventory plots are sampled every year for numerous indicators of forest health ranging from soils to understory vegetation. Down woody material (DWM) is an FIA indicator that provides estimates of forest...

  10. PROFIT-PC: a program for estimating maximum net revenue from multiproduct harvests in Appalachian hardwoods

    Treesearch

    Chris B. LeDoux; John E. Baumgras; R. Bryan Selbe

    1989-01-01

    PROFIT-PC is a menu driven, interactive PC (personal computer) program that estimates optimum product mix and maximum net harvesting revenue based on projected product yields and stump-to-mill timber harvesting costs. Required inputs include the number of trees/acre by species and 2 inches diameter at breast-height class, delivered product prices by species and product...

  11. ADEPT: a program to estimate depth to magnetic basement from sampled magnetic profiles

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Jeffrey D.

    1978-01-01

    A fortran program computes depth to magnetic basement from the spatially varying autocorrelation function of a sampled magnetic profile. The depth calculation assumes a particular form for the autocorrelation function, and this assumption is tested against the measured autocorrelation function in order to reject invalid depth estimates.

  12. Parameter estimation supplement to the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations program (MAESTRO)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bjorkman, W. S.; Uphoff, C. W.

    1973-01-01

    This Parameter Estimation Supplement describes the PEST computer program and gives instructions for its use in determination of lunar gravitation field coefficients. PEST was developed for use in the RAE-B lunar orbiting mission as a means of lunar field recovery. The observations processed by PEST are short-arc osculating orbital elements. These observations are the end product of an orbit determination process obtained with another program. PEST's end product it a set of harmonic coefficients to be used in long-term prediction of the lunar orbit. PEST employs some novel techniques in its estimation process, notably a square batch estimator and linear variational equations in the orbital elements (both osculating and mean) for measurement sensitivities. The program's capabilities are described, and operating instructions and input/output examples are given. PEST utilizes MAESTRO routines for its trajectory propagation. PEST's program structure and subroutines which are not common to MAESTRO are described. Some of the theoretical background information for the estimation process, and a derivation of linear variational equations for the Method 7 elements are included.

  13. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  14. GGUM2004: AWindows-Based Program to Estimate Parameters in the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, James S.; Fang, Haw-ren

    2006-01-01

    The GGUM2004 computer program estimates parameters for a family of unidimensional unfolding item response theory (IRT) models. These unfolding IRT models predict higher item scores to the extent that a respondent is located close to an item on an underlying latent continuum. This prediction is often consistent with responses to traditional…

  15. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  16. TH-SCORE: A Program for Obtaining Ability Estimates under Different Psychometric Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrando, Pere J.; Lorenzo, Urbano

    1998-01-01

    A program for obtaining ability estimates and their standard errors under a variety of psychometric models is documented. The general models considered are (1) classical test theory; (2) item factor analysis for continuous censored responses; and (3) unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory graded response models. (SLD)

  17. Malaria Incidence Rates from Time Series of 2-Wave Panel Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Chiyaka, Christinah; Singer, Burton H.

    2016-01-01

    Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data—specifically, 2-wave panel data—was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological

  18. Program RDSURVIV: an estimation tool for capture-recapture data collected under Pollock's robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    Several papers have demonstrated the advantages of collecting capture-recapture data using subsamples (i.e., Pollock?s robust design). Compared to a standard design (i.e., one sample per period), this approach (1) permits the estimation of more demographic parameters and (2) in many cases produces more efficient estimators. Program SURVIV is a powerful tool for computing parameter estimates under the robust design. However, multinomial models developed for the robust design require cells for each possible capture history that occurs across the subsamples within a period. This makes the process of entering cell probabilities in SURVIV very tedious and subject to errors. Program RDSURVIV combines SURVIV with a front end that converts capture histories taken under the robust design to the proper input format for estimating parameters under a general model, and builds that model. This model permits Markovian temporary emigration, trap response in capture probabilities, and time variation in all parameters. Program RDSURVIV also automatically computes estimates under a series of submodels, but also permits the user to specify other submodels.

  19. Program RDSURVIV: An estimation tool for capture-recapture data collected under Pollock's robust design

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kendall, W.L.; Hines, J.E.

    1999-01-01

    Several papers have demonstrated the advantages of collecting capture-recapture data using subsamples (i.e. Pollock's robust design). Compared with a standard design (i.e. one sample per period), this approach (1) permits the estimation of more demographic parameters and (2) in many cases produces more efficient estimators. Program SURVIV is a powerful tool for computing parameter estimates under the robust design. However, multinomial models developed for the robust design require cells for each possible capture history that occurs across the subsamples within a period. This makes the process of entering cell probabilities in SURVIV very tedious and subject to errors. Program RDSURVIV combines SURVIV with a front end that converts capture histories taken under the robust design to the proper input format for estimating parameters under a general model, and builds that model. This model permits Markovian temporary emigration, trap response in capture probabilities and time variation in all parameters. Program RDSURVIV also automatically computes estimates under a series of submodels, but also permits the user to specify other submodels.

  20. A dynamic programming approach to estimate the capacity value of energy storage

    DOE PAGES

    Sioshansi, Ramteen; Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Denholm, Paul

    2013-09-17

    Here, we present a method to estimate the capacity value of storage. Our method uses a dynamic program to model the effect of power system outages on the operation and state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We combine the optimized dispatch from the dynamic program with estimated system loss of load probabilities to compute a probability distribution for the state of charge of storage in each period. This probability distribution can be used as a forced outage rate for storage in standard reliability-based capacity value estimation methods. Our proposed method has the advantage over existing approximations that itmore » explicitly captures the effect of system shortage events on the state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We also use a numerical case study, based on five utility systems in the U.S., to demonstrate our technique and compare it to existing approximation methods.« less

  1. A dynamic programming approach to estimate the capacity value of energy storage

    SciTech Connect

    Sioshansi, Ramteen; Madaeni, Seyed Hossein; Denholm, Paul

    2013-09-17

    Here, we present a method to estimate the capacity value of storage. Our method uses a dynamic program to model the effect of power system outages on the operation and state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We combine the optimized dispatch from the dynamic program with estimated system loss of load probabilities to compute a probability distribution for the state of charge of storage in each period. This probability distribution can be used as a forced outage rate for storage in standard reliability-based capacity value estimation methods. Our proposed method has the advantage over existing approximations that it explicitly captures the effect of system shortage events on the state of charge of storage in subsequent periods. We also use a numerical case study, based on five utility systems in the U.S., to demonstrate our technique and compare it to existing approximation methods.

  2. Survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs for estimating supersonic missile aerodynamic characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sawyer, W. C.; Allen, J. M.; Hernandez, G.; Dillenius, M. F. E.; Hemsch, M. J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents a survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs used for estimating the aerodynamic characteristics of missile configurations. Emphasis is placed on those methods which are suitable for preliminary design of conventional and advanced concepts. An analysis of the technical approaches of the various methods is made in order to assess their suitability to estimate longitudinal and/or lateral-directional characteristics for different classes of missile configurations. Some comparisons between the predicted characteristics and experimental data are presented. These comparisons are made for a large variation in flow conditions and model attitude parameters. The paper also presents known experimental research programs developed for the specific purpose of validating analytical methods and extending the capability of data-base programs.

  3. Survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs for estimating supersonic missile aerodynamic characteristics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sawyer, W. C.; Allen, J. M.; Hernandez, G.; Dillenius, M. F. E.; Hemsch, M. J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper presents a survey of engineering computational methods and experimental programs used for estimating the aerodynamic characteristics of missile configurations. Emphasis is placed on those methods which are suitable for preliminary design of conventional and advanced concepts. An analysis of the technical approaches of the various methods is made in order to assess their suitability to estimate longitudinal and/or lateral-directional characteristics for different classes of missile configurations. Some comparisons between the predicted characteristics and experimental data are presented. These comparisons are made for a large variation in flow conditions and model attitude parameters. The paper also presents known experimental research programs developed for the specific purpose of validating analytical methods and extending the capability of data-base programs.

  4. Effectiveness of Implementation of Electronic Malaria Information System as the National Malaria Surveillance System in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    system implemented has achieved its objective. The results of the study suggested that the eMIS helps improve the quality of Thailand’s malaria surveillance system. As the national malaria surveillance system, the eMIS’s functionalities have provided the malaria staff working at the point of care with close-to-real-time case management data quality, covering case detection, case investigation, drug compliance, and follow-up visits. Such features has led to an improvement in the quality of the malaria control program; the government officials now have quicker access to both individual and aggregated data to promptly react to possible outbreak. The eMIS thus plays one of the key roles in moving toward the national goal of malaria elimination by the next decade. PMID:27227156

  5. Effect of red blood cell variants on childhood malaria in Mali: a prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Lopera-Mesa, Tatiana M; Doumbia, Saibou; Konaté, Drissa; Anderson, Jennifer M; Doumbouya, Mory; Keita, Abdoul S; Diakité, Seidina A S; Traoré, Karim; Krause, Michael A; Diouf, Ababacar; Moretz, Samuel E; Tullo, Gregory S; Miura, Kazutoyo; Gu, Wenjuan; Fay, Michael P; Taylor, Steve M; Long, Carole A; Diakité, Mahamadou; Fairhurst, Rick M

    2015-04-01

    Red blood cell variants protect African children from severe falciparum malaria. However, their individual and interactive effects on mild disease and parasite density, and their modification by age-dependent immunity, are poorly understood. In this study, we address these knowledge gaps in a prospective cohort study of malaria risk and Plasmodium falciparum densities in Malian children. The Kenieroba Innate Defense Study for Malaria (KIDS-Malaria) was a 4-year prospective cohort study of children aged 6 months to 17 years undertaken in Mali between 2008 and 2011. Red blood cell variants were haemoglobin S (HbS), haemoglobin C (HbC), α thalassaemia, ABO blood groups, and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency encoded by the X-linked A- allele. The primary outcome was malaria incidence, measured as the number of uncomplicated or severe malaria episodes over time. The secondary outcome was parasite density at the time of a malaria episode. We modelled incidence rate ratios with quasi-Poisson regression and we analysed parasite densities using generalised estimating equations. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00669084. Between May 1, 2008, and Dec 29, 2011, we enrolled 1586 children into the study. We successfully typed all five red blood cell variants for 1543 of these children, who therefore constituted the evaluable population and in whom we diagnosed 4091 malaria episodes over 2656 child-years of follow-up. In these 1543 children, red blood cell variants were common, and occurred at the following frequencies: sickle cell trait (HbAS) 220 (14%), HbC heterozygosity (HbAC) 103 (7%), α thalassaemia 438 (28%), type O blood group 621 (40%), and G6PD deficiency 72 (9%) in 767 boys and 158 (20%) in 776 girls. The overall incidence of malaria was 1.54 episodes per child-year of follow-up, ranging from 2.78 episodes per child-year at age 3 years to 0.40 episodes per child-year at age 17 years. The malaria incidence was lower in Hb

  6. Lift/cruise fan V/STOL technology aircraft design definition study. Volume 3: Development program and budgetary estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Obrien, W. J.

    1976-01-01

    The aircraft development program, budgetary estimates in CY 1976 dollars, and cost reduction program variants are presented. Detailed cost matrices are also provided for the mechanical transmission system, turbotip transmission system, and the thrust vector hoods and yaw doors.

  7. Malaria Eradication and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka†

    PubMed Central

    Lucas, Adrienne M.

    2013-01-01

    Mid-twentieth century malaria eradication campaigns largely eliminated malaria from Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Using these interventions as quasi-experiments, I estimate malaria’s effect on lifetime female educational attainment through the combination of pre-existing geographic variation in malarial intensity and cohort exposure based on the timing of the national anti-malaria campaigns. The estimates from Sri Lanka and Paraguay are similar and indicate that malaria eradication increased years of educational attainment and literacy. The similarity of the estimates across the countries reinforces our confidence in the validity of the identification strategy. PMID:23946866

  8. Congenital Malaria in Calabar, Nigeria: The Molecular Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Oduwole, Olabisi A.; Ejezie, G. C.; Odey, Friday A.; Oringanje, Chioma M.; Nwakanma, Davis; Bello, Segun; Oriero, Eniyou; Okebe, Joseph; Alaribe, Anyawu A.; Etuk, Saturday; Meremikwu, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been shown to be more sensitive in detecting low-level parasitemia than conventional blood film microscopy. We estimated the prevalence of congenital malaria using nested PCR amplification of the small subunit 18S RNA gene to detect low-level parasitemia and identify Plasmodium species in 204 mother–neonate pairs. Cord-blood parasitemia was detected in four babies by PCR, giving a prevalence of 2.0%. The newborns of primidgravidae were more susceptible to congenital malaria than those of multigravidae (P < 0.0001). There was a strong correlation between placental malaria and congenital malaria (odds ratio = 10.1, 95% confidence interval = 1.3–76.1, P = 0.0487). We conclude that the prevalence of congenital malaria in Calabar detected by PCR is lower than has been reported in this environment through microscopy. PMID:21363974

  9. Using a geographical information system to plan a malaria control programme in South Africa.

    PubMed Central

    Booman, M.; Durrheim, D. N.; La Grange, K.; Martin, C.; Mabuza, A. M.; Zitha, A.; Mbokazi, F. M.; Fraser, C.; Sharp, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Sustainable control of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is jeopardized by dwindling public health resources resulting from competing health priorities that include an overwhelming acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. In Mpumalanga province, South Africa, rational planning has historically been hampered by a case surveillance system for malaria that only provided estimates of risk at the magisterial district level (a subdivision of a province). METHODS: To better map control programme activities to their geographical location, the malaria notification system was overhauled and a geographical information system implemented. The introduction of a simplified notification form used only for malaria and a carefully monitored notification system provided the good quality data necessary to support an effective geographical information system. RESULTS: The geographical information system displays data on malaria cases at a village or town level and has proved valuable in stratifying malaria risk within those magisterial districts at highest risk, Barberton and Nkomazi. The conspicuous west-to-east gradient, in which the risk rises sharply towards the Mozambican border (relative risk = 4.12, 95% confidence interval = 3.88-4.46 when the malaria risk within 5 km of the border was compared with the remaining areas in these two districts), allowed development of a targeted approach to control. DISCUSSION: The geographical information system for malaria was enormously valuable in enabling malaria risk at town and village level to be shown. Matching malaria control measures to specific strata of endemic malaria has provided the opportunity for more efficient malaria control in Mpumalanga province. PMID:11196490

  10. Using a geographical information system to plan a malaria control programme in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Booman, M; Durrheim, D N; La Grange, K; Martin, C; Mabuza, A M; Zitha, A; Mbokazi, F M; Fraser, C; Sharp, B L

    2000-01-01

    Sustainable control of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is jeopardized by dwindling public health resources resulting from competing health priorities that include an overwhelming acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. In Mpumalanga province, South Africa, rational planning has historically been hampered by a case surveillance system for malaria that only provided estimates of risk at the magisterial district level (a subdivision of a province). To better map control programme activities to their geographical location, the malaria notification system was overhauled and a geographical information system implemented. The introduction of a simplified notification form used only for malaria and a carefully monitored notification system provided the good quality data necessary to support an effective geographical information system. The geographical information system displays data on malaria cases at a village or town level and has proved valuable in stratifying malaria risk within those magisterial districts at highest risk, Barberton and Nkomazi. The conspicuous west-to-east gradient, in which the risk rises sharply towards the Mozambican border (relative risk = 4.12, 95% confidence interval = 3.88-4.46 when the malaria risk within 5 km of the border was compared with the remaining areas in these two districts), allowed development of a targeted approach to control. The geographical information system for malaria was enormously valuable in enabling malaria risk at town and village level to be shown. Matching malaria control measures to specific strata of endemic malaria has provided the opportunity for more efficient malaria control in Mpumalanga province.

  11. Short-Lived IFN-γ Effector Responses, but Long-Lived IL-10 Memory Responses, to Malaria in an Area of Low Malaria Endemicity

    PubMed Central

    Wipasa, Jiraprapa; Okell, Lucy; Sakkhachornphop, Supachai; Suphavilai, Chaisuree; Chawansuntati, Kriangkrai; Liewsaree, Witaya; Hafalla, Julius C. R.; Riley, Eleanor M.

    2011-01-01

    Immunity to malaria is widely believed to wane in the absence of reinfection, but direct evidence for the presence or absence of durable immunological memory to malaria is limited. Here, we analysed malaria-specific CD4+ T cell responses of individuals living in an area of low malaria transmission in northern Thailand, who had had a documented clinical attack of P. falciparum and/or P. vivax in the past 6 years. CD4+ T cell effector memory (CD45RO+) IFN-γ (24 hours ex vivo restimulation) and cultured IL-10 (6 day secretion into culture supernatant) responses to malaria schizont antigens were detected only in malaria-exposed subjects and were more prominent in subjects with long-lived antibodies or memory B cells specific to malaria antigens. The number of IFN-γ-producing effector memory T cells declined significantly over the 12 months of the study, and with time since last documented malaria infection, with an estimated half life of the response of 3.3 (95% CI 1.9–10.3) years. In sharp contrast, IL-10 responses were sustained for many years after last known malaria infection with no significant decline over at least 6 years. The observations have clear implications for understanding the immunoepidemiology of naturally acquired malaria infections and for malaria vaccine development. PMID:21347351

  12. Neglected Plasmodium vivax malaria in northeastern States of India

    PubMed Central

    Sharma, Vinod P.; Dev, Vas; Phookan, Sobhan

    2015-01-01

    Background & objectives: The northeastern States of India are co-endemic for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria. The transmission intensity is low-to-moderate resulting in intermediate to stable malaria. Malaria control prioritized P. falciparum being the predominant and life threatening infection (>70%). P. vivax malaria remained somewhat neglected. The present study provides a status report of P. vivax malaria in the northeastern States of India. Methods: Data on spatial distribution of P. vivax from seven northeastern States (Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura) were analysed retrospectively from 2008–2013. In addition, cross-sectional malarial surveys were conducted during 1991-2012 in malaria endemic pockets across the States of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Tripura to ascertain the prevalence of P. vivax in different age groups. Results: Vivax malaria was encountered in all northeastern States but there existed a clear division of two malaria ecotypes supporting ≤30 and >30 per cent of total malaria cases. High proportions of P. vivax cases (60–80%) were seen in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland in the north with alpine environment, 42-67 per cent in Manipur, whereas in Assam it varied from 23-31 per cent with subtropical and tropical climate. Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram had the lowest proportion of P. vivax cases. Malaria cases were recorded in all age groups but a higher proportion of P. vivax consistently occurred among <5 yr age group compared to P. falciparum (P<0.05). P. vivax cases were recorded throughout the year with peak coinciding with rainy season although transmission intensity and duration varied. Interpretation & conclusions: In northeast India, P. vivax is a neglected infection. Estimating the relapsing pattern and transmission dynamics of P. vivax in various ecological settings is an important pre-requisite for planning malaria elimination in the northeastern States. PMID:26139771

  13. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk.

    PubMed

    Guerra, C A; Snow, R W; Hay, S I

    2006-04-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South-east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South-east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted.

  14. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    PubMed Central

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  15. Quality of Malaria Case Management in Malawi: Results from a Nationally Representative Health Facility Survey

    PubMed Central

    Steinhardt, Laura C.; Chinkhumba, Jobiba; Wolkon, Adam; Luka, Madalitso; Luhanga, Misheck; Sande, John; Oyugi, Jessica; Ali, Doreen; Mathanga, Don; Skarbinski, Jacek

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria is endemic throughout Malawi, but little is known about quality of malaria case management at publicly-funded health facilities, which are the major source of care for febrile patients. Methods In April–May 2011, we conducted a nationwide, geographically-stratified health facility survey to assess the quality of outpatient malaria diagnosis and treatment. We enrolled patients presenting for care and conducted exit interviews and re-examinations, including reference blood smears. Moreover, we assessed health worker readiness (e.g., training, supervision) and health facility capacity (e.g. availability of diagnostics and antimalarials) to provide malaria case management. All analyses accounted for clustering and unequal selection probabilities. We also used survey weights to produce estimates of national caseloads. Results At the 107 facilities surveyed, most of the 136 health workers interviewed (83%) had received training on malaria case management. However, only 24% of facilities had functional microscopy, 15% lacked a thermometer, and 19% did not have the first-line artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), artemether-lumefantrine, in stock. Of 2,019 participating patients, 34% had clinical malaria (measured fever or self-reported history of fever plus a positive reference blood smear). Only 67% (95% confidence interval (CI): 59%, 76%) of patients with malaria were correctly prescribed an ACT, primarily due to missed malaria diagnosis. Among patients without clinical malaria, 31% (95% CI: 24%, 39%) were prescribed an ACT. By our estimates, 1.5 million of the 4.4 million malaria patients seen in public facilities annually did not receive correct treatment, and 2.7 million patients without clinical malaria were inappropriately given an ACT. Conclusions Malawi has a high burden of uncomplicated malaria but nearly one-third of all patients receive incorrect malaria treatment, including under- and over-treatment. To improve malaria case

  16. Malaria transmission modelling: a network perspective.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jiming; Yang, Bo; Cheung, William K; Yang, Guojing

    2012-11-01

    Malaria transmission can be affected by multiple or even hidden factors, making it difficult to timely and accurately predict the impact of elimination and eradication programs that have been undertaken and the potential resurgence and spread that may continue to emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an attempt to identify them as timely as possible and thus to enable policy makers to modify and implement strategies for further preventing the transmission. Most of the surveillance data will be of temporal and spatial nature. From an interdisciplinary point of view, it would be interesting to ask the following important as well as challenging question: Based on the available surveillance data in temporal and spatial forms, how can we build a more effective surveillance mechanism for monitoring and early detecting the relative prevalence and transmission patterns of malaria? What we can note from the existing clustering-based surveillance software systems is that they do not infer the underlying transmission networks of malaria. However, such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how malaria transmits from one place to another. They can also in turn allow public health policy makers and researchers to uncover the hidden and interacting factors such as environment, genetics and ecology and to discover/predict malaria transmission patterns/trends. The network perspective further extends the present approaches to modelling malaria transmission based on a set of chosen factors. In this article, we survey the related work on transmission network inference, discuss how such an approach can be utilized in developing an effective computational means for inferring malaria transmission networks based on partial surveillance data, and what methodological steps and issues may be involved in its formulation and validation.

  17. Malaria vaccine offers hope. International / Africa.

    PubMed

    1995-04-03

    The World Health Organization (WHO) may soon sign an agreement with the Colombian government to build a plant in Colombia for the mass production of the malaria vaccine SPf66. SPf66 consists of a combination of synthetic peptides. It will eventually be available in Africa, where 90% of all recorded malaria cases occur each year. 1 million of the 1.5-3 million malaria-related deaths each year also occur in Africa. Many of these deaths take place in children. The indirect costs of malaria in Africa is expected to increase from $800 million to $1.8 billion between 1987 and the end of 1995. Based on findings from the various clinical trials in Colombia, Thailand, The Gambia, and Tanzania, WHO's director of Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) claims that, if SPf66 can reduce the malaria incidence rate by 50% and thereby also the malaria-related death rate, the lives of 500,000 children in Africa would be spared. TDR will meet in mid-1996 to sort through all the SPf66 findings and then develop a policy for further development or production and use of SPf66. The price of each SPf66 vaccination should be around $5, comparable with the higher range of costs of other vaccines provided by WHO's Expanded Program of Immunization and UNICEF. At the 1992 WHO summit in Amsterdam, the president of the Congo called for the international community to join forces to eliminate malaria. When it was first tested on humans, in Colombia, the protection rate of SPf66 ranged from 22% to 77%, with the best results among the young and the very old. It has not caused any harmful side effects.

  18. Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Nigro, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

  19. Fatigue life estimation program for Part 23 airplanes, `AFS.FOR`

    SciTech Connect

    Kaul, S.K.

    1993-12-31

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce to the general aviation industry a computer program which estimates the safe fatigue life of any Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Part 23 airplane. The algorithm uses the methodology (Miner`s Linear Cumulative Damage Theory) and the various data presented in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Report No. AFS-120-73-2, dated May 1973. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 language and is executable on a desk top personal computer. The program prompts the user for the input data needed and provides a variety of options for its intended use. The program is envisaged to be released through issuance of a FAA report, which will contain the appropriate comments, instructions, warnings and limitations.

  20. Barriers to malaria control among marginalized tribal communities: a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Sundararajan, Radhika; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Gokhale, Charuta; Greenough, P Gregg; Bang, Abhay

    2013-01-01

    ; promoting within-village rapid diagnosis and treatment; increasing ITN distribution and promoting their use as potential strategies to decrease infection rates in these communities. These insights may be used to shape malaria control programs among marginalized populations.

  1. Barriers to Malaria Control among Marginalized Tribal Communities: A Qualitative Study

    PubMed Central

    Sundararajan, Radhika; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Gokhale, Charuta; Greenough, P. Gregg; Bang, Abhay

    2013-01-01

    healers partners in malaria control; promoting within-village rapid diagnosis and treatment; increasing ITN distribution and promoting their use as potential strategies to decrease infection rates in these communities. These insights may be used to shape malaria control programs among marginalized populations. PMID:24376507

  2. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O.; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E.; Gutierrez, Juan B.; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C.; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2011-01-01

    Latin America contributes 1 to 1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. PMID:21781953

  3. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E; Gutierrez, Juan B; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2012-03-01

    Latin America contributes 1-1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Rogayah, Hanifah; Kusriastuti, Rita; Wismarini, Desak M.; Tarmizi, Siti N.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2011-01-01

    Background Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010. Methods Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface. Results We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas. Conclusion While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of

  5. Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in Indonesia in 2010.

    PubMed

    Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Rogayah, Hanifah; Kusriastuti, Rita; Wismarini, Desak M; Tarmizi, Siti N; Baird, J Kevin; Hay, Simon I

    2011-01-01

    Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010. Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006-2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985-2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2-10 year old PfPR data (PfPR(2-10)) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR(2-10) endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface. We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas. While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of future strategies against this 2010 baseline

  6. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence.

    PubMed

    Edlund, Stefan; Davis, Matthew; Douglas, Judith V; Kershenbaum, Arik; Waraporn, Narongrit; Lessler, Justin; Kaufman, James H

    2012-09-18

    The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence) built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data). The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation's Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM). Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS) error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166-2 national subdivisions and with monthly time sampling. The

  7. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence) built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data). The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM). Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS) error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2 national subdivisions and

  8. Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions. PMID:20015392

  9. Estimating data from figures with a Web-based program: Considerations for a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Burda, Brittany U; O'Connor, Elizabeth A; Webber, Elizabeth M; Redmond, Nadia; Perdue, Leslie A

    2017-09-01

    Systematic reviewers often encounter incomplete or missing data, and the information desired may be difficult to obtain from a study author. Thus, systematic reviewers may have to resort to estimating data from figures with little or no raw data in a study's corresponding text or tables. We discuss a case study in which participants used a publically available Web-based program, called webplotdigitizer, to estimate data from 2 figures. We evaluated and used the intraclass coefficient and the accuracy of the estimates to the true data to inform considerations when using estimated data from figures in systematic reviews. The estimates for both figures were consistent, although the distribution of estimates in the figure of a continuous outcome was slightly higher. For the continuous outcome, the percent difference ranged from 0.23% to 30.35% while the percent difference of the event rate ranged from 0.22% to 8.92%. For both figures, the intraclass coefficient was excellent (>0.95). Systematic reviewers should consider and be transparent when estimating data from figures when the information cannot be obtained from study authors and perform sensitivity analyses of pooled results to reduce bias. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Design of asymptotic estimators: an approach based on neural networks and nonlinear programming.

    PubMed

    Alessandri, Angelo; Cervellera, Cristiano; Sanguineti, Marcello

    2007-01-01

    A methodology to design state estimators for a class of nonlinear continuous-time dynamic systems that is based on neural networks and nonlinear programming is proposed. The estimator has the structure of a Luenberger observer with a linear gain and a parameterized (in general, nonlinear) function, whose argument is an innovation term representing the difference between the current measurement and its prediction. The problem of the estimator design consists in finding the values of the gain and of the parameters that guarantee the asymptotic stability of the estimation error. Toward this end, if a neural network is used to take on this function, the parameters (i.e., the neural weights) are chosen, together with the gain, by constraining the derivative of a quadratic Lyapunov function for the estimation error to be negative definite on a given compact set. It is proved that it is sufficient to impose the negative definiteness of such a derivative only on a suitably dense grid of sampling points. The gain is determined by solving a Lyapunov equation. The neural weights are searched for via nonlinear programming by minimizing a cost penalizing grid-point constraints that are not satisfied. Techniques based on low-discrepancy sequences are applied to deal with a small number of sampling points, and, hence, to reduce the computational burden required to optimize the parameters. Numerical results are reported and comparisons with those obtained by the extended Kalman filter are made.

  11. Towards comprehensive malaria planning: the effect of government capacity, health policy, and land use variables on malaria incidence in India.

    PubMed

    Boussalis, Constantine; Nelson, Hal T; Swaminathan, Siddharth

    2012-10-01

    We present what we believe is the first empirical research that accounts for subnational government capacity in estimating malaria incidence. After controlling for relevant extrinsic factors, we find evidence of a negative effect of state government capacity on reported malaria cases in Indian states over the period 1993-2002. Government capacity is more successful in predicting malaria incidence than potentially more direct indicators such as state public health expenditures and economic development levels. We find that high government capacity can moderate the deleterious health effects of malaria in rice producing regions. Our research also suggests that government capacity may have exacerbated the effectiveness of the World Bank Malaria Control Project in India over the period studied. We conclude by proposing the integration of government capacity measures into existing planning efforts, including vulnerability mapping tools and disease surveillance efforts.

  12. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  13. Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. Operating experience with pulsed-column holdup estimators

    SciTech Connect

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for estimating pulsed-column holdup are being investigated as part of the Safeguards Assessment task of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The CFRP was a major sponsor of test runs at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel plant (BNFP) in 1980 and 1981. During these tests, considerable measurement data were collected for pulsed columns in the plutonium purification portion of the plant. These data have been used to evaluate and compare three available methods of holdup estimation.

  14. System-level power estimation using SystemC and aspect-oriented programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Feng; Abbasi, Naeem; Tan, Qingping

    2010-09-01

    Rapid system modelling and early evaluation of design characterisation are central to design space exploration. SystemC is used widely for system-level modelling, but it lacks the semantics to capture power consumption. The article presents a novel high-level power estimation methodology based on SystemC and aspect-oriented programming (AOP). Using a composite pattern, our methodology is applicable to the power estimation of a complex system. The proposed strategies support macro-models with multiple features. The experimental results are illustrated with case studies.

  15. Population genetics of malaria resistance in humans

    PubMed Central

    Hedrick, P W

    2011-01-01

    The high mortality and widespread impact of malaria have resulted in this disease being the strongest evolutionary selective force in recent human history, and genes that confer resistance to malaria provide some of the best-known case studies of strong positive selection in modern humans. I begin by reviewing JBS Haldane's initial contribution to the potential of malaria genetic resistance in humans. Further, I discuss the population genetics aspects of many of the variants, including globin, G6PD deficiency, Duffy, ovalocytosis, ABO and human leukocyte antigen variants. Many of the variants conferring resistance to malaria are ‘loss-of-function' mutants and appear to be recent polymorphisms from the last 5000–10 000 years or less. I discuss estimation of selection coefficients from case–control data and make predictions about the change for S, C and G6PD-deficiency variants. In addition, I consider the predicted joint changes when the two β-globin alleles S and C are both variable in the same population and when there is a variation for α-thalassemia and S, two unlinked, but epistatic variants. As more becomes known about genes conferring genetic resistance to malaria in humans, population genetics approaches can contribute both to investigating past selection and predicting the consequences in future generations for these variants. PMID:21427751

  16. Qualitative evaluation and economic estimates of an infection control champions program.

    PubMed

    Lloyd-Smith, Elisa; Curtin, Jim; Gilbart, Wayne; Romney, Marc G

    2014-12-01

    In many North American hospitals, conventional infection control operational models often struggle to provide sufficient support to frontline health care workers. The objective of this study was to describe a sustainable infection control champion (ICC) program based on findings from focus groups. A distributed model of infection control was established by placing infection prevention and control-trained ICCs in 3 Canadian hospitals for a period of 12 months. Subsequently, semistructured focus groups were conducted to describe overall feasibility and impeding and critical factors affecting sustainability. An economic estimate of the ICC program compared with the cost of hiring a new infection control practitioner was also calculated. Focus group participants considered the program feasible. Barriers included lack of time and staff turnover. Themes critical for the successful implementation of an ICC program included defined ICC roles and goals, adequate support and resources for the ICC, engagement with all levels of staff, flexible structure, and program evaluation. The cost per bed of the ICC program was less than the cost per bed of hiring a new infection control practitioner. A distributed model of providing infection prevention and control services may have benefit when hospital infection control teams are underresourced, as is often the case. Several key factors are needed for the successful implementation of an ICC program. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Aerodynamic design guidelines and computer program for estimation of subsonic wind tunnel performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eckert, W. T.; Mort, K. W.; Jope, J.

    1976-01-01

    General guidelines are given for the design of diffusers, contractions, corners, and the inlets and exits of non-return tunnels. A system of equations, reflecting the current technology, has been compiled and assembled into a computer program (a user's manual for this program is included) for determining the total pressure losses. The formulation presented is applicable to compressible flow through most closed- or open-throat, single-, double-, or non-return wind tunnels. A comparison of estimated performance with that actually achieved by several existing facilities produced generally good agreement.

  18. MC DRAG - A Computer Program for Estimating the Drag Coefficients of Projectiles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-02-01

    CALIBERS AERO RANGE MC DRAG BOATTAIL LENGTH = .69 CALIBERS 2 4 6 8 10 12 BOATTAIL ANGLE (DEGREES) . 5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0...Program for Estimating the Drag Coefficients of Projectiles 5 . TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Final 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHORf...range of 0.5 to 5 and a projectile diameter range of 4 to 400 millimetres. A user’s guide and a FORTRAN listing of MC DRAG is provided. The program

  19. [Four malaria-import patterns: sporadic region].

    PubMed

    Parlak, Emine; Ertürk, Ayşe; Cayır, Yasemin; Parlak, Mehmet

    2013-01-01

    Malaria, as it has been during history, is an important parasitic infectious health problem nowadays. In Turkey, the most common kind of malaria is Plasmodium vivax, and P. falciparum is rarely observed in import events. After eradication activities started in 1926, the number of cases dramatically decreased in our country. However, the number of import cases is increasing as a result of tourism, migration, and deficiency in the eradication program. In tropical and sub-tropical regions and in endemic regions of Turkey such as South-Eastern Anatolia and Çukurova, in every feverish phenomenon, malaria is the first disease to be considered. The purpose of the present study is to evaluate clinical epidemiological characteristics of the four import patterns in foreign studies.

  20. Tackling Imported Malaria: An Elimination Endgame

    PubMed Central

    Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Roberts, Kathryn W.; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Ohrt, Colin; Gosling, Roly D.

    2015-01-01

    As countries move toward malaria elimination, imported infections become increasingly significant as they often represent the majority of cases, can sustain transmission, cause resurgences, and lead to mortality. Here we review and critique current methods to prevent malaria importation in countries pursuing elimination and explore methods applied in other transmission settings and to other diseases that could be transferred to support malaria elimination. To improve intervention targeting we need a better understanding of the characteristics of populations importing infections and their patterns of migration, improved methods to reliably classify infections as imported or acquired locally, and ensure early and accurate diagnosis. The potential for onward transmission in the most receptive and vulnerable locations can be predicted through high-resolution risk mapping that can help malaria elimination or prevention of reintroduction programs target resources. Cross border and regional initiatives can be highly effective when based on an understanding of human and parasite movement. Ultimately, determining the optimal combinations of approaches to address malaria importation will require an evaluation of their impact, cost effectiveness, and operational feasibility. PMID:26013369

  1. EMIRA: Ecologic Malaria Reduction for Africa--innovative tools for integrated malaria control.

    PubMed

    Dambach, Peter; Traoré, Issouf; Becker, Norbert; Kaiser, Achim; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Malaria control is based on early treatment of cases and on vector control. The current measures for malaria vector control in Africa are mainly based on long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and to a much smaller extent on indoor residual spraying (IRS). A third pillar in the fight against the malaria vector, larval source management (LSM), has virtually not been used in Africa since the ban of DDT in the 1960s. Within the light of recent WHO recommendations for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) use against malaria and other vector species, larval source management could see a revival in the upcoming years. In this project we analyze the ecologic and health impacts as well as the cost effectiveness of larval source management under different larviciding scenarios in a health district in Burkina Faso. The project is designed as prospective intervention study with duration of three years (2013-2015). Its spatial scale includes three arms of interventions and control, comprising a total of 127 villages and the district capital Nouna in the extended HDSS (Health Demographic Surveillance System) of the Kossi province. Baseline data on mosquito abundance, parasitemia in U5 children, and malaria related morbidity and mortality are gathered over the project duration. Besides the outcome on ecologic and health parameters, the economic costs are seized and valued against the achieved health benefits. Risk map based, guided larvicide application might be a possibility to further decrease economic cost of LSM and facilitate its faster incorporation to integrated malaria control programs. Given the limited resources in many malaria endemic countries, it is of utmost importance to relate the costs of novel strategies for malaria prevention to their effect on the burden of the disease. Occurring costs and the impact on the health situation will be made comparable to other, existing intervention strategies, allowing stakeholders and policymakers decision making.

  2. Malaria, miseria, and underpopulation in Sardinia: the "malaria blocks development" cultural model.

    PubMed

    Brown, P J

    1997-05-01

    Until the late Nineteenth century, endemic malaria was a serious public health problem in Sardinia, as in much of Southern Italy. As the poorest region of the new Italian nation, Sardinia was characterized by poor health, very low population densities, low agricultural productivity, and weak state authority associated with banditry. In this context, however, malaria was singled out as a key underlying problem for the situation of "internal underdevelopment." This paper describes the Italian scholarly literature about the relationship of malaria and economic productivity as a cultural model that can be labeled as "malaria blocks development" (MBD). Anti-malaria programs, including the state control of the distribution of quinine as well as land reclamation projects, played a major role in the decrease of malaria mortality in the first part of this century. Based on the logic of the MBD model, the decrease in malaria was expected to decrease an obstacle to "natural processes" of economic development. During the Fascist era, scientifically based antimalaria efforts formed a key element in centralized attempts for agricultural intensification and encouragement of immigration from over-populated parts of the country. Immediately after W.W.II, Sardinia was the site of a successful American-sponsored eradication project that represented one of the first uses of DDT against an indigenous anopheles vector. Hypotheses based on the MBD model about the nature of economic change after the removal of malaria are not supported. Nevertheless, variations of the MBD cultural model continue to be used in the field of International Health to the present day.

  3. EMIRA: Ecologic Malaria Reduction for Africa – innovative tools for integrated malaria control

    PubMed Central

    Dambach, Peter; Traoré, Issouf; Becker, Norbert; Kaiser, Achim; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria control is based on early treatment of cases and on vector control. The current measures for malaria vector control in Africa are mainly based on long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and to a much smaller extent on indoor residual spraying (IRS). A third pillar in the fight against the malaria vector, larval source management (LSM), has virtually not been used in Africa since the ban of DDT in the 1960s. Within the light of recent WHO recommendations for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) use against malaria and other vector species, larval source management could see a revival in the upcoming years. In this project we analyze the ecologic and health impacts as well as the cost effectiveness of larval source management under different larviciding scenarios in a health district in Burkina Faso. Methods The project is designed as prospective intervention study with duration of three years (2013–2015). Its spatial scale includes three arms of interventions and control, comprising a total of 127 villages and the district capital Nouna in the extended HDSS (Health Demographic Surveillance System) of the Kossi province. Baseline data on mosquito abundance, parasitemia in U5 children, and malaria related morbidity and mortality are gathered over the project duration. Besides the outcome on ecologic and health parameters, the economic costs are seized and valued against the achieved health benefits. Conclusions Risk map based, guided larvicide application might be a possibility to further decrease economic cost of LSM and facilitate its faster incorporation to integrated malaria control programs. Given the limited resources in many malaria endemic countries, it is of utmost importance to relate the costs of novel strategies for malaria prevention to their effect on the burden of the disease. Occurring costs and the impact on the health situation will be made comparable to other, existing intervention strategies, allowing stakeholders and

  4. [RAN: A computer program to estimate random response patterns in objective tests Computar program for random response].

    PubMed

    Merino Soto, César; López Pina, José

    2010-05-01

    In the psychological measurement, especially in personality, the paper-pencil method is the usual device between the psychologist and allied professions. The score obtained by a person examined can have questionable validity if the responses were random. To identify this problem, different methods have been used. The random response is a challenging situation for the measurement research and diagnosis in cognitive performance and personality, when they have been measured by test of dichotomous type. In this study a computer program that implements the Charter's method of point estimate and confidence intervals is presented in order to identify if the score obtained can be considered random. We analyze and discuss this program uses in the research and professional practice.

  5. Reduction of childhood malaria by social marketing of insecticide-treated nets: a case-control study of effectiveness in Malawi.

    PubMed

    Mathanga, Don P; Campbell, Carl H; Taylor, Terrie E; Barlow, Robin; Wilson, Mark L

    2005-09-01

    Use of an insecticide-treated net (ITN) is now the central focus for the Roll Back Malaria campaign, and disease-endemic countries have embarked on large-scale ITN distribution programs. We assessed the impact of an ITN social marketing program on clinical malaria in children less than five years of age. A case-control study was undertaken at Ndirande Health Center in the peri-urban area of the city of Blantyre, Malawi. Cases were defined by an axillary temperature > or = 37.5 degrees C or a history of fever within the last 48 hours and a positive blood smear for Plasmodium falciparum. The individual effectiveness of ITN use was 40% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10-60%) when cases were compared with clinic controls and 50% (95% CI = 0-60%) in comparison with community controls. With ITN coverage of 42%, the community effectiveness of this program was estimated to range from 17% to 21%. This represents 1,480 malaria cases averted by the intervention in a population of 15,000 children. Our results show that the benefits of ITN social marketing programs in reducing malaria are enormous. Targeting the poor could increase those benefits.

  6. Temporal and spatial patterns of malaria reinfection in northeastern Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Barrera, R; Grillet, M E; Rangel, Y; Berti, J; Aché, A

    1999-11-01

    We stratified the risk of malaria transmission (Plasmodium vivax) in 35 villages along a coastal range in northeastern Venezuela (51 km2) where the main vector is the mosquito Anopheles aquasalis. After 20 years without local malaria transmission, reinfection of the entire area occurred from May to December 1985 by local (continuous) and jump (discontinuous) dispersal. Epidemiologic, environmental, and vector variables were investigated with the aid of a Geographic Information System. Risk factors for malaria transmission were human population density, proximity to pre-adult mosquito habitats (< 500 m), and the number of pre-adult habitats nearby. Most inhabitants, immature mosquito habitats, and malaria cases were located at low elevations and on gentle slopes. High prevalence of malaria during the dry seasons was associated with the presence of permanent bodies of water containing An. aquasalis. Occurrence of a La Niña event in 1988 (wet and cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation) triggered malaria transmission to unusually high levels, consolidating infection in the area, and rendering traditional control efforts useless. We recommend tracking malaria persistence per village and associated risk factors as methods to reduce the cost of malaria control programs.

  7. Malaria Distribution, Prevalence, Drug Resistance and Control in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Elyazar, Iqbal R.F.; Hay, Simon I.; Baird, J. Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d’état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs. PMID:21295677

  8. Malaria distribution, prevalence, drug resistance and control in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Hay, Simon I; Baird, J Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d'état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs.

  9. Malaria in the Era of Food Fortification With Folic Acid.

    PubMed

    Nzila, Alexis; Okombo, John; Hyde, John

    2016-06-01

    Food fortified with folic acid has been available for consumption in North America for over a decade. This strategy has led to an increase in folate levels in the general population and, more importantly, a significant decrease in the incidence of neural tube defects. However, this increase in folate intake has been associated with a greater risk of cancer disease. Many African countries are now embracing this concept; however, because folate promotes malaria parasite division, as it does in cancer cells, there is a possibility of malaria exacerbation if folate intake is increased. A precedent for such a concern is the now compelling evidence showing that an increase in iron intake can lead to a higher malaria risk; as a result, mass administration of iron in malaria-endemic areas is not recommended. In this article, we review work on the effect of folate on malaria parasites. Although this topic has received little research attention, the available data suggest that the increase in folate concentration could be associated with an increase in malaria infection. Thus, the introduction of food fortification with folic acid in malaria-endemic areas should be attended by precautionary programs to monitor the risk of malaria.

  10. [Malaria in Algerian Sahara].

    PubMed

    Hammadi, D; Boubidi, S C; Chaib, S E; Saber, A; Khechache, Y; Gasmi, M; Harrat, Z

    2009-08-01

    Thanks to the malaria eradication campaign launched in Algeria in 1968, the number of malaria cases fell down significantly from 95,424 cases in 1960 to 30 cases in 1978. At that time the northern part of the country was declared free of Plasmodium falciparum. Only few cases belonging to P. vivax persisted in residual foci in the middle part of the country. In the beginning of the eighties, the south of the country was marked by an increase of imported malaria cases. The resurgence of the disease in the oases coincided with the opening of the Trans-Saharan road and the booming trade with the neighbouring southern countries. Several authors insisted on the risk of introduction of malaria or its exotic potential vectors in Algeria via this new road. Now, the totality of malaria autochthonous cases in Algeria are located in the south of the country where 300 cases were declared during the period (1980-2007). The recent outbreak recorded in 2007 at the borders with Mall and the introduction of Anopheles gambiae into the Algerian territory show the vulnerability of this area to malaria which is probably emphasized by the local environmental changes. The authors assess the evolution of malaria in the Sahara region and draw up the distribution of the anopheles in this area.

  11. [Current data on malaria in metropolitan France].

    PubMed

    Danis, M; Legros, F; Thellier, M; Caumes, E

    2002-01-01

    Epidemiological data from the French National Reference Center for Imported Diseases showed that the estimated number of cases of imported malaria in France increased from 5,940 in 1998 to 7,127 in 1999 and 8,056 in 2000. This three-year progression ended in 2001 when the number of estimated cases fell back to 7,223. It was due mainly to the concomitant increase in the number of people traveling to endemic zones especially in Africa. In 2000 the median age of patients with imported malaria in France was 29.5 years and the sex ratio was 1.78. Sixty-three percent of cases involved people of African origin and 37% involved "Westerners". The countries in which contamination occurred were located in tropical Africa (95%), Asia (2.2%), and Latin America (2.7%). During the three year period from 1998 to 2000, there were a total of 13 accidental autochtonous cases of malaria involving patients with no history of travel to tropical areas. The distribution of Plasmodium species involved in imported malaria in France was stable with 83% of cases involving Plasmodium falciparum, 6% involving Plasmodium vivax, 6.5% involving Plasmodium ovale and 1.3% involving Plasmodium malariae. Attacks were clinically uncomplicated in 90 to 95% of cases and severe in 2 to 5% including fatal Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 0.49 to 0.37% of cases. Less than 10% of the 45% of patients claiming use of prophylaxis complied properly. Analysis of the drugs used for curative treatment in 2000 showed an increase in the use of quinine and mefloquine and decrease in the use of halofantrine. The main objectives remain reduction of mortality and improvement of prevention.

  12. Intergenerational Long-Term Effects of Preschool - Structural Estimates from a Discrete Dynamic Programming Model.

    PubMed

    Heckman, James J; Raut, Lakshmi K

    2016-03-01

    This paper formulates a structural dynamic programming model of preschool investment choices of altruistic parents and then empirically estimates the structural parameters of the model using the NLSY79 data. The paper finds that preschool investment significantly boosts cognitive and non-cognitive skills, which enhance earnings and school outcomes. It also finds that a standard Mincer earnings function, by omitting measures of non-cognitive skills on the right-hand side, overestimates the rate of return to schooling. From the estimated equilibrium Markov process, the paper studies the nature of within generation earnings distribution, intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. The paper finds that a tax-financed free preschool program for the children of poor socioeconomic status generates positive net gains to the society in terms of average earnings, higher intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility.

  13. Intergenerational Long-Term Effects of Preschool - Structural Estimates from a Discrete Dynamic Programming Model*

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James J.; Raut, Lakshmi K.

    2015-01-01

    This paper formulates a structural dynamic programming model of preschool investment choices of altruistic parents and then empirically estimates the structural parameters of the model using the NLSY79 data. The paper finds that preschool investment significantly boosts cognitive and non-cognitive skills, which enhance earnings and school outcomes. It also finds that a standard Mincer earnings function, by omitting measures of non-cognitive skills on the right-hand side, overestimates the rate of return to schooling. From the estimated equilibrium Markov process, the paper studies the nature of within generation earnings distribution, intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. The paper finds that a tax-financed free preschool program for the children of poor socioeconomic status generates positive net gains to the society in terms of average earnings, higher intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. PMID:26709326

  14. The fastclime Package for Linear Programming and Large-Scale Precision Matrix Estimation in R

    PubMed Central

    Pang, Haotian; Liu, Han; Vanderbei, Robert

    2014-01-01

    We develop an R package fastclime for solving a family of regularized linear programming (LP) problems. Our package efficiently implements the parametric simplex algorithm, which provides a scalable and sophisticated tool for solving large-scale linear programs. As an illustrative example, one use of our LP solver is to implement an important sparse precision matrix estimation method called CLIME (Constrained L1 Minimization Estimator). Compared with existing packages for this problem such as clime and flare, our package has three advantages: (1) it efficiently calculates the full piecewise-linear regularization path; (2) it provides an accurate dual certificate as stopping criterion; (3) it is completely coded in C and is highly portable. This package is designed to be useful to statisticians and machine learning researchers for solving a wide range of problems. PMID:25620890

  15. The fastclime Package for Linear Programming and Large-Scale Precision Matrix Estimation in R.

    PubMed

    Pang, Haotian; Liu, Han; Vanderbei, Robert

    2014-02-01

    We develop an R package fastclime for solving a family of regularized linear programming (LP) problems. Our package efficiently implements the parametric simplex algorithm, which provides a scalable and sophisticated tool for solving large-scale linear programs. As an illustrative example, one use of our LP solver is to implement an important sparse precision matrix estimation method called CLIME (Constrained L1 Minimization Estimator). Compared with existing packages for this problem such as clime and flare, our package has three advantages: (1) it efficiently calculates the full piecewise-linear regularization path; (2) it provides an accurate dual certificate as stopping criterion; (3) it is completely coded in C and is highly portable. This package is designed to be useful to statisticians and machine learning researchers for solving a wide range of problems.

  16. Advanced Transportation System Studies. Technical Area 3: Alternate Propulsion Subsystems Concepts. Volume 3; Program Cost Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levack, Daniel J. H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this contract was to provide definition of alternate propulsion systems for both earth-to-orbit (ETO) and in-space vehicles (upper stages and space transfer vehicles). For such propulsion systems, technical data to describe performance, weight, dimensions, etc. was provided along with programmatic information such as cost, schedule, needed facilities, etc. Advanced technology and advanced development needs were determined and provided. This volume separately presents the various program cost estimates that were generated under three tasks: the F- IA Restart Task, the J-2S Restart Task, and the SSME Upper Stage Use Task. The conclusions, technical results , and the program cost estimates are described in more detail in Volume I - Executive Summary and in individual Final Task Reports.

  17. Modern malaria chemoprophylaxis.

    PubMed

    Shanks, G Dennis; Edstein, Michael D

    2005-01-01

    Currently available medications for malaria chemoprophylaxis are efficacious but the problems of patient compliance, the advance of parasite drug resistance, and real or perceived serious adverse effects mean that new chemical compounds are needed.Primaquine, which has been widely used to treat relapsing malaria since the 1950s, has been shown to prevent malaria when taken daily. Tafenoquine is a new 8-aminoquinoline with a much longer half-life than primaquine. Field trials to date indicate that tafenoquine is efficacious and can be taken weekly or perhaps even less frequently. Both primaquine and tafenoquine require exact knowledge of a person's glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase status in order to prevent drug-induced haemolysis. Other potential malaria chemoprophylactic drugs such as third-generation antifol compounds and Mannich bases have reached advanced preclinical testing. Mefloquine has been seen to cause serious neuropsychiatric adverse effects on rare occasions. Recent public controversy regarding reputedly common serious adverse effects has made many Western travellers unwilling to take mefloquine. Special risk groups exposed to malaria, such as long-term travellers, children, pregnant women, aircrew and those requiring unimpeded psychomotor reactions, migrants returning to visit malarious countries of origin and febrile persons who have returned from malaria endemic areas, all require a nuanced approach to the use of drugs to prevent malaria. The carrying of therapeutic courses of antimalarial drugs to be taken only if febrile illness develops is indicated in very few travellers despite its appeal to some who fear adverse effects more than they fear potentially lethal malaria infection. Travellers with a significant exposure to malaria require a comprehensive plan for prevention that includes anti-mosquito measures but which is still primarily be based on the regular use of efficacious antimalarial medications.

  18. Geographical patterns of malaria transmission based on serological markers for falciparum and vivax malaria in Ratanakiri, Cambodia.

    PubMed

    Kerkhof, Karen; Sluydts, Vincent; Heng, Somony; Kim, Saorin; Pareyn, Myrthe; Willen, Laura; Canier, Lydie; Sovannaroth, Siv; Ménard, Didier; Sochantha, Tho; Coosemans, Marc; Durnez, Lies

    2016-10-19

    Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, especially in low endemic countries, such as Cambodia. This results in geographical clusters of residual transmission in the dry, low transmission season, which can fuel the transmission to wider areas or populations during the wet season. A better understanding of spatial clustering of malaria can lead to a more efficient, targeted strategy to reduce malaria transmission. This study aims to evaluate the potential of the use of serological markers to define spatial patterns in malaria exposure. Blood samples collected in a community-based randomized trial performed in 98 high endemic communities in Ratanakiri province, north-eastern Cambodia, were screened with a multiplex serological assay for five serological markers (three Plasmodium falciparum and two Plasmodium vivax). The antibody half-lives range from approximately six months until more than two years. Geographical heterogeneity in malaria transmission was examined using a spatial scan statistic on serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rate data. Furthermore, to identify behavioural patterns or intrinsic factors associated with malaria exposure (antibody levels), risk factor analyses were performed by using multivariable random effect logistic regression models. The serological outcomes were then compared to PCR prevalence and malaria incidence data. A total of 6502 samples from two surveys were screened in an area where the average parasite prevalence estimated by PCR among the selected villages is 3.4 %. High-risk malaria pockets were observed adjacent to the 'Tonle San River' and neighbouring Vietnam for all three sets of data (serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rates). The main risk factors for all P. falciparum antigens and P. vivax MSP1.19 are age, ethnicity and staying overnight at the plot hut. It is possible to identify similar malaria pockets of higher malaria transmission together with the potential risk factors by using serology

  19. etas_solve: A robust program to estimate the ETAS parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Y.; Kasahara, A.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model introduced by Ogata (1988) has been widely used to quantitatively describe seismicity (e.g. Ogata, 1992; Llenos et al., 2009). However, only a few programs for estimation of the ETAS parameters are publicly available, and it is difficult to automatically apply some of them to observed data due to initial value dependence (e.g. Ogata, 2006). A robust ETAS estimation program is required to meet the recent enhancement of earthquake catalogs. In this study, we developed a new program, etas_solve, that is based on Newton's method and calculates exact gradient and Hessian by using the automatic differentiation technique (Griewank, 1989). The program also supports auxiliary window in time and magnitude (Wang et al., 2010).To demonstrate robustness of the developed program, we tested the dependence of estimated parameters on the choice of initial value by running the program from 1,024 randomly chosen initial values, and then compared the results with that of SAPP (Ogata 2006). We used aftershock data of 26th July 2003 earthquake of M6.2 at the northern Miyagi japan, which is shipped with SAPP, as a testing data. We found that estimation values with etas_solve were independent of the initial value for the testing data, while that with SAPP were varied with the initial value. Although there was initial value dependence in the SAPP's results, the estimated values by SAPP with small (≤10-5) gradient coincided with the solution by etas_solve. etas_solve took longer computation time per iteration than SAPP due to the exact Hessian calculation, but total execution time was comparable to that of SAPP since less number of iterations for convergence was required. In addition, etas_solve was faster than SAPP on multicore machines (around 8-fold speed up with a 16 core machine) since etas_solve is parallelized by OpenMP.etas_solve is written in Fortran and distributed under GNU General Public License at https

  20. RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bream, Bruce L.

    1993-01-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

  1. Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation for DOD Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-31

    Acquisition Programs Cost Estimation Research Team: Bob Ferguson ( SEI - SEMA) Dennis Goldenson PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Jim McCurley ( SEI ...SEMA) Bob Stoddard ( SEI - SEMA) Dave Zubrow PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Julie Cohen ( SEI - ASP) Tim Morrow ( SEI - ASP) Eduardo Miranda PhD (CMU ISR...McCurley Senior Technical Staff Jim McCurley is a Senior Member of the Technical Staff at the Software Engineering Institute ( SEI ). During his 15

  2. Modifications to Computer Program for Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Gamma Distribution,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-05-01

    10 EVALUATION OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD .. .. ..... 13 DIGITAL PROGRAM DESCRIPTION .. .... ...... .... 14 INPUT DATA...Unit Number 1-1506-012. INTRODUCTION A computerized procedure for evaluating the parameters of the generalized gamma distribution from a set of random...0n 0" 0" C/) Cd) V) 12 EVALUATION OF THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD The method previously employed to determine estimation param- eters for the

  3. RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bream, Bruce L.

    1993-04-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

  4. EGADS: A microcomputer program for estimating the aerodynamic performance of general aviation aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melton, John E.

    1994-01-01

    EGADS is a comprehensive preliminary design tool for estimating the performance of light, single-engine general aviation aircraft. The software runs on the Apple Macintosh series of personal computers and assists amateur designers and aeronautical engineering students in performing the many repetitive calculations required in the aircraft design process. The program makes full use of the mouse and standard Macintosh interface techniques to simplify the input of various design parameters. Extensive graphics, plotting, and text output capabilities are also included.

  5. READSCAN: a fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation.

    PubMed

    Naeem, Raeece; Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2013-02-01

    READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan.

  6. Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Castro, Marcia C.

    2013-01-01

    Background The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Methods and Findings Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004–2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66–0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). Conclusion A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam. PMID:23977099

  7. Malaria and Vascular Endothelium

    PubMed Central

    de Alencar, Aristóteles Comte; de Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Okoshi, Katashi; Okoshi, Marina Politi

    2014-01-01

    Involvement of the cardiovascular system in patients with infectious and parasitic diseases can result from both intrinsic mechanisms of the disease and drug intervention. Malaria is an example, considering that the endothelial injury by Plasmodium-infected erythrocytes can cause circulatory disorders. This is a literature review aimed at discussing the relationship between malaria and endothelial impairment, especially its effects on the cardiovascular system. We discuss the implications of endothelial aggression and the interdisciplinarity that should guide the malaria patient care, whose acute infection can contribute to precipitate or aggravate a preexisting heart disease. PMID:25014058

  8. Malaria: prevention in travellers

    PubMed Central

    Croft, Ashley

    2000-01-01

    Definition Malaria is caused by a protozoan infection of red blood cells with one of four species of the genus plasmodium: P falciparum, P vivax, P ovale, or P malariae.1 Clinically, malaria may present in different ways, but it is usually characterised by fever (which may be swinging), tachycardia, rigors, and sweating. Anaemia, hepatosplenomegaly, cerebral involvement, renal failure, and shock may occur. Incidence/prevalence Each year there are 300-500 million clinical cases of malaria. About 40% of the world's population is at risk of acquiring the disease.23 Each year 25-30 million people from non-tropical countries visit areas in which malaria is endemic,4 of whom between 10 000 and 30 000 contract malaria.5 Aetiology/risk factors Malaria is mainly a rural disease, requiring standing water nearby. It is transmitted by bites6 from infected female anopheline mosquitoes,7 mainly at dusk and during the night.18 In cities, mosquito bites are usually from female culicene mosquitoes, which are not vectors of malaria.9 Malaria is resurgent in most tropical countries and the risk to travellers is increasing.10 Prognosis Ninety per cent of travellers who contract malaria do not become ill until after they return home.5 “Imported malaria” is easily treated if diagnosed promptly, and it follows a serious course in only about 12% of people.1112 The most severe form of the disease is cerebral malaria, with a case fatality rate in adult travellers of 2-6%,3 mainly because of delays in diagnosis.5 Aims To reduce the risk of infection; to prevent illness and death. Outcomes Rates of malarial illness and death, and adverse effects of treatment. Proxy measures include number of mosquito bites and number of mosquitoes in indoor areas. We found limited evidence linking number of mosquito bites and risk of malaria.13 Methods Clinical Evidence search and appraisal in November 1999. We reviewed all identified systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials (RCTs

  9. Estimating Tree-Structured Covariance Matrices via Mixed-Integer Programming.

    PubMed

    Bravo, Héctor Corrada; Wright, Stephen; Eng, Kevin H; Keles, Sündüz; Wahba, Grace

    2009-01-01

    We present a novel method for estimating tree-structured covariance matrices directly from observed continuous data. Specifically, we estimate a covariance matrix from observations of p continuous random variables encoding a stochastic process over a tree with p leaves. A representation of these classes of matrices as linear combinations of rank-one matrices indicating object partitions is used to formulate estimation as instances of well-studied numerical optimization problems.In particular, our estimates are based on projection, where the covariance estimate is the nearest tree-structured covariance matrix to an observed sample covariance matrix. The problem is posed as a linear or quadratic mixed-integer program (MIP) where a setting of the integer variables in the MIP specifies a set of tree topologies of the structured covariance matrix. We solve these problems to optimality using efficient and robust existing MIP solvers.We present a case study in phylogenetic analysis of gene expression and a simulation study comparing our method to distance-based tree estimating procedures.

  10. Inaugural meeting of the malaria policy advisory committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met for the first time from 31 January to 2 February 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting, as part of the newly launched Malaria Journal thematic series “WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Committee: Reports and Recommendations”. Summaries are provided, referencing the relevant background documents, for the meeting sessions on global malaria control, drug resistance and containment, rapid diagnostic test procurement criteria, larviciding, classification of countries for elimination, estimating malaria cases and deaths, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that will arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization member states by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:22545931

  11. Estimating Development Cost for a Tailored Interactive Computer Program to Enhance Colorectal Cancer Screening Compliance

    PubMed Central

    Lairson, David R.; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L.; Vernon, Sally W.; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was $328,866. The development cost was $52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions. PMID:16799126

  12. Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) voluntary labeling program: 2001 status report

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Mahajan, Akshay; Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2002-02-15

    ENERGY STAR(Registered Trademark) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2000, what we expect in 2001, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2001 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  13. 2003 status report savings estimates for the energy star(R)voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

    2004-11-09

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2002, what we expect in 2003, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2003 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  14. 2002 status report: Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R) voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla; Koomey, Jonathan

    2003-03-03

    ENERGY STAR [registered trademark] is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2001, what we expect in 2002, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2002 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  15. Estimating development cost for a tailored interactive computer program to enhance colorectal cancer screening compliance.

    PubMed

    Lairson, David R; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L; Vernon, Sally W; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was Dollars 328,866. The development cost was Dollars 52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions.

  16. Assembling a global database of malaria parasite prevalence for the Malaria Atlas Project

    PubMed Central

    Guerra, Carlos A; Hay, Simon I; Lucioparedes, Lorena S; Gikandi, Priscilla W; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W

    2007-01-01

    Background Open access to databases of information generated by the research community can synergize individual efforts and are epitomized by the genome mapping projects. Open source models for outputs of scientific research funded by tax-payers and charities are becoming the norm. This has yet to be extended to malaria epidemiology and control. Methods The exhaustive searches and assembly process for a global database of malaria parasite prevalence as part of the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP) are described. The different data sources visited and how productive these were in terms of availability of parasite rate (PR) data are presented, followed by a description of the methods used to assemble a relational database and an associated geographic information system. The challenges facing spatial data assembly from varied sources are described in an effort to help inform similar future applications. Results At the time of writing, the MAP database held 3,351 spatially independent PR estimates from community surveys conducted since 1985. These include 3,036 Plasmodium falciparum and 1,347 Plasmodium vivax estimates in 74 countries derived from 671 primary sources. More than half of these data represent malaria prevalence after the year 2000. Conclusion This database will help refine maps of the global spatial limits of malaria and be the foundation for the development of global malaria endemicity models as part of MAP. A widespread application of these maps is envisaged. The data compiled and the products generated by MAP are planned to be released in June 2009 to facilitate a more informed approach to global malaria control. PMID:17306022

  17. Cost of malaria control in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed Central

    Konradsen, F.; Steele, P.; Perera, D.; van der Hoek, W.; Amerasinghe, P. H.; Amerasinghe, F. P.

    1999-01-01

    The study provides estimates of the cost of various malaria control measures in an area of North-Central Province of Sri Lanka where the disease is endemic. We assumed that each measure was equally effective. In these terms, impregnating privately purchased bednets with insecticide was estimated to cost Rs 48 (US(40.87) per individual protected per year, less than half the cost of spraying houses with residual insecticides. Larviciding of vector breeding sites and especially the elimination of breeding habitats by flushing streams through seasonal release of water from upstream reservoirs was estimated to be cheaper than other preventive measures (Rs 27 (US$ 0.49) and Rs 13 (US$ 0.24) per individual protected, respectively). Inclusion of both operational and capital costs of treatment indicates that the most cost-effective intervention for the government was a centrally located hospital with a relatively large catchment area (Rs 71 (US$ 1.29) per malaria case treated). Mobile clinics (Rs 153 (US$ 2.78) per malaria case treated) and a village treatment centre (Rs 112 (US$ 2.04)) per malaria case treated) were more expensive options for the government, but were considerably cheaper for households than the traditional hospital facilities. This information can guide health planners and government decision-makers in choosing the most appropriate combination of curative and preventive measures to control malaria. However, the option that is cheapest for the government may not be so for the householders, and further studies are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the various preventive measures. PMID:10327708

  18. Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Pollock, K.H.; Therres, Glenn D.

    2001-01-01

    Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

  19. Daily values flow comparison and estimates using program HYCOMP, version 1.0

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanders, Curtis L.

    2002-01-01

    A method used by the U.S. Geological Survey for quality control in computing daily value flow records is to compare hydrographs of computed flows at a station under review to hydrographs of computed flows at a selected index station. The hydrographs are placed on top of each other (as hydrograph overlays) on a light table, compared, and missing daily flow data estimated. This method, however, is subjective and can produce inconsistent results, because hydrographers can differ when calculating acceptable limits of deviation between observed and estimated flows. Selection of appropriate index stations also is judgemental, giving no consideration to the mathematical correlation between the review station and the index station(s). To address the limitation of the hydrograph overlay method, a set of software programs, written in the SAS macrolanguage, was developed and designated Program HYDCOMP. The program automatically selects statistically comparable index stations by correlation and regression, and performs hydrographic comparisons and estimates of missing data by regressing daily mean flows at the review station against -8 to +8 lagged flows at one or two index stations and day-of-week. Another advantage that HYDCOMP has over the graphical method is that estimated flows, the criteria for determining the quality of the data, and the selection of index stations are determined statistically, and are reproducible from one user to another. HYDCOMP will load the most-correlated index stations into another file containing the ?best index stations,? but will not overwrite stations already in the file. A knowledgeable user should delete unsuitable index stations from this file based on standard error of estimate, hydrologic similarity of candidate index stations to the review station, and knowledge of the individual station characteristics. Also, the user can add index stations not selected by HYDCOMP, if desired. Once the file of best-index stations is created, a user may

  20. The essential role of infection-detection technologies for malaria elimination and eradication.

    PubMed

    Tietje, Kathleen; Hawkins, Kenneth; Clerk, Christine; Ebels, Kelly; McGray, Sarah; Crudder, Chris; Okell, Lucy; LaBarre, Paul

    2014-05-01

    Recent emphasis on malaria elimination and eradication (E&E) goals is changing the way that experts evaluate malaria diagnostic tools and tactics. As prevalence declines, the focus of malaria management is pivoting toward low-density, subclinical infections and geographically and demographically concentrated reservoirs. These and other changes present challenges and opportunities for innovations in malaria diagnostics aimed at meeting the needs of malaria elimination programs. Developing such technologies requires a review of the operational approaches to detecting malaria infections in areas of declining prevalence. Here we review recent research on epidemiology and biology related to malaria elimination and operational factors that influence E&E strategies. We further propose use-scenarios and a target product profile framework to define and prioritize the required attributes of infection-detection technologies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Estimation of the break-even point for smoking cessation programs in pregnancy.

    PubMed Central

    Shipp, M; Croughan-Minihane, M S; Petitti, D B; Washington, A E

    1992-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Successful programs to help pregnant women quit smoking have been developed and evaluated, but formal smoking cessation programs are not a part of care at most prenatal sites. The cost of such programs may be an issue. Considering the costs of adverse maternal and infant outcomes resulting from smoking, we estimated there would be an amount of money a prenatal program could invest in smoking cessation and still "break even" economically. METHODS. A model was developed and published data, along with 1989 hospital charge data, were used to arrive at a break-even point for smoking cessation programs in pregnancy. RESULTS. Using overall United States data, we arrived at a break-even cost of $32 per pregnant woman. When these data were varied to fit specific US populations, the break-even costs varied from $10 to $237, with the incidence of preterm low birth weight having the most impact on the cost. CONCLUSIONS. It may be advisable to invest greater amounts of money in a prenatal smoking cessation program for some populations. However, for every population there is an amount that can be invested while still breaking even. PMID:1536354

  2. Cost of employee assistance programs: comparison of national estimates from 1993 and 1995.

    PubMed

    French, M T; Zarkin, G A; Bray, J W; Hartwell, T D

    1999-02-01

    The cost and financing of mental health services is gaining increasing importance with the spread of managed care and cost-cutting measures throughout the health care system. The delivery of mental health services through structured employee assistance programs (EAPs) could be undermined by revised health insurance contracts and cutbacks in employer-provided benefits at the workplace. This study uses two recently completed national surveys of EAPs to estimate the costs of providing EAP services during 1993 and 1995. EAP costs are determined by program type, worksite size, industry, and region. In addition, information on program services is reported to determine the most common types and categories of services and whether service delivery changes have occurred between 1993 and 1995. The results of this study will be useful to EAP managers, mental health administrators, and mental health services researchers who are interested in the delivery and costs of EAP services.

  3. Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria chemoprophylaxis for travellers to West-Africa

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The importation of malaria to non-endemic countries remains a major cause of travel-related morbidity and a leading cause of travel-related hospitalizations. Currently they are three priority medications for malaria prophylaxis to West Africa: mefloquine, atovaquone/proguanil and doxycycline. We investigate the cost effectiveness of a partial reimbursement of the cheapest effective malaria chemoprophylaxis (mefloquine) for travellers to high risk areas of malaria transmission compared with the current situation of no reimbursement. Methods This study is a cost-effectiveness analysis based on malaria cases imported from West Africa to Switzerland from the perspective of the Swiss health system. We used a decision tree model and made a literature research on the components of travel related malaria. The main outcome measure was the cost effectiveness of malaria chemoprophylaxis reimbursement based on malaria and deaths averted. Results Using a program where travellers would be reimbursed for 80% of the cost of the cheapest malaria chemoprophylaxis is dominant (i.e. cost saving and more effective than the current situation) using the assumption that currently 68.7% of travellers to West Africa use malaria chemoprophylaxis. If the current usage of malaria chemoprophylaxis would be higher, 82.4%, the incremental cost per malaria case averted is € 2'302. The incremental cost of malaria death averted is € 191'833. The most important factors influencing the model were: the proportion of travellers using malaria chemoprophylaxis, the probability of contracting malaria without malaria chemoprophylaxis, the cost of the mefloquine regimen, the decrease in the number of travellers without malaria chemoprophylaxis in the reimbursement strategy. Conclusions This study suggests that a reimbursement of 80% of the cost of the cheapest effective malaria chemoprophylaxis (mefloquine) for travellers from Switzerland to West Africa is highly effective in terms of malaria

  4. Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives.

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Sukhan; Sleigh, Adrian C.; Liu, Xi-Li

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assist with strategic planning for the eradication of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported. METHODS: We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme: suspected malaria case management, vector surveillance, and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patients were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors in six townships or former communes (population 247 762), and studied all 12 325 reported cases of suspected malaria in their catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. FINDINGS: The average annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%; vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for patients seeking treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an average of US$ 0.78. CONCLUSION: Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels of US$ 0.03 per person at risk. PMID:12219157

  5. Epidemiological risk stratification of malaria in the Americas.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Salgado, C

    1992-01-01

    During the last years, malaria had a significant increase in Latin America, emerging again as one critical health problem in the Region of the Americas. More than 1.04 million new cases were reported in 1990. This resurgence of malaria needed a comprehensive strategy for its prevention and control. National malaria control programs recognized the epidemiological stratification of malaria as a valuable method to assist them in the recognition of local variations and factors that specifically contribute to the level and intensity of transmission in critical malarious areas. Also it serves as a useful instrument for the selection of needed malaria prevention and control activities. The principal feature of this approach is to provide a dynamic and ongoing process for assessing the epidemiological importance of different risk factors (socio-economic, ecological, organization of health services) in malaria transmission. Health interventions are based on this assessment and are aimed directly at the reduction or elimination of the identified risk factors operating at the local level. Intersectorial co-participation and the integration of malaria programs in local health services are also important aspects of this public health approach.

  6. Large-scale malaria survey in Cambodia: novel insights on species distribution and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Incardona, Sandra; Vong, Sirenda; Chiv, Lim; Lim, Pharath; Nhem, Sina; Sem, Rithy; Khim, Nimol; Doung, Socheat; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile; Fandeur, Thierry

    2007-03-27

    In Cambodia, estimates of the malaria burden rely on a public health information system that does not record cases occurring among remote populations, neither malaria cases treated in the private sector nor asymptomatic carriers. A global estimate of the current malaria situation and associated risk factors is, therefore, still lacking. A large cross-sectional survey was carried out in three areas of multidrug resistant malaria in Cambodia, enrolling 11,652 individuals. Fever and splenomegaly were recorded. Malaria prevalence, parasite densities and spatial distribution of infection were determined to identify parasitological profiles and the associated risk factors useful for improving malaria control programmes in the country. Malaria prevalence was 3.0%, 7.0% and 12.3% in Sampovloun, Koh Kong and Preah Vihear areas. Prevalences and Plasmodium species were heterogeneously distributed, with higher Plasmodium vivax rates in areas of low transmission. Malaria-attributable fevers accounted only for 10-33% of malaria cases, and 23-33% of parasite carriers were febrile. Multivariate multilevel regression analysis identified adults and males, mostly involved in forest activities, as high risk groups in Sampovloun, with additional risks for children in forest-fringe villages in the other areas along with an increased risk with distance from health facilities. These observations point to a more complex malaria situation than suspected from official reports. A large asymptomatic reservoir was observed. The rates of P. vivax infections were higher than recorded in several areas. In remote areas, malaria prevalence was high. This indicates that additional health facilities should be implemented in areas at higher risk, such as remote rural and forested parts of the country, which are not adequately served by health services. Precise malaria risk mapping all over the country is needed to assess the extensive geographical heterogeneity of malaria endemicity and risk

  7. Large-scale malaria survey in Cambodia: Novel insights on species distribution and risk factors

    PubMed Central

    Incardona, Sandra; Vong, Sirenda; Chiv, Lim; Lim, Pharath; Nhem, Sina; Sem, Rithy; Khim, Nimol; Doung, Socheat; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile; Fandeur, Thierry

    2007-01-01

    Background In Cambodia, estimates of the malaria burden rely on a public health information system that does not record cases occurring among remote populations, neither malaria cases treated in the private sector nor asymptomatic carriers. A global estimate of the current malaria situation and associated risk factors is, therefore, still lacking. Methods A large cross-sectional survey was carried out in three areas of multidrug resistant malaria in Cambodia, enrolling 11,652 individuals. Fever and splenomegaly were recorded. Malaria prevalence, parasite densities and spatial distribution of infection were determined to identify parasitological profiles and the associated risk factors useful for improving malaria control programmes in the country. Results Malaria prevalence was 3.0%, 7.0% and 12.3% in Sampovloun, Koh Kong and Preah Vihear areas. Prevalences and Plasmodium species were heterogeneously distributed, with higher Plasmodium vivax rates in areas of low transmission. Malaria-attributable fevers accounted only for 10–33% of malaria cases, and 23–33% of parasite carriers were febrile. Multivariate multilevel regression analysis identified adults and males, mostly involved in forest activities, as high risk groups in Sampovloun, with additional risks for children in forest-fringe villages in the other areas along with an increased risk with distance from health facilities. Conclusion These observations point to a more complex malaria situation than suspected from official reports. A large asymptomatic reservoir was observed. The rates of P. vivax infections were higher than recorded in several areas. In remote areas, malaria prevalence was high. This indicates that additional health facilities should be implemented in areas at higher risk, such as remote rural and forested parts of the country, which are not adequately served by health services. Precise malaria risk mapping all over the country is needed to assess the extensive geographical heterogeneity

  8. ANALOG: a program for estimating paleoclimate parameters using the method of modern analogs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweitzer, Peter N.

    1994-01-01

    modern samples, the modern analogs of the fossil sample. This report describes how to use the program ANALOG to carry out the method of modern analogs. It is assumed that the user has faunal census estimates of one or more fossil samples, and one or more sets of faunal data from modern samples. Furthermore, the user must understand the taxonomic categories represented in the data sets, and be able to recognize taxa that are or may be considered equivalent in the analysis. ANALOG provides the user with flexibility in input data format, output data content, and choice of distance measure, and allows the user to determine which taxa from each modern and fossil data file are compared. Most of the memory required by the program is allocated dynamically, so that, on systems that permit program segments to grow, the program consumes only as many system resources as are needed to accomplish its task.

  9. Viewpoint: evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Rowe, Alexander K; Steketee, Richard W; Arnold, Fred; Wardlaw, Tessa; Basu, Suprotik; Bakyaita, Nathan; Lama, Marcel; Winston, Carla A; Lynch, Matthew; Cibulskis, Richard E; Shibuya, Kenji; Ratcliffe, Amy A; Nahlen, Bernard L

    2007-12-01

    To describe an approach for evaluating the impact of malaria control efforts on malaria-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, where disease-specific mortality trends usually cannot be measured directly and most malaria deaths occur among young children. Methods for evaluating changes in malaria-associated mortality are examined; advantages and disadvantages are presented. All methods require a plausibility argument-i.e., an assumption that mortality reductions can be attributed to programmatic efforts if improvements are found in steps of the causal pathway between intervention scale-up and mortality trends. As different methods provide complementary information, they can be used together. We recommend following trends in the coverage of malaria control interventions, other factors influencing childhood mortality, malaria-associated morbidity (especially anaemia), and all-cause childhood mortality. This approach reflects decreases in malaria's direct and indirect mortality burden and can be examined in nearly all countries. Adding other information can strengthen the plausibility argument: trends in indicators of malaria transmission, information from demographic surveillance systems and sentinel sites where malaria diagnostics are systematically used, and verbal autopsies linked to representative household surveys. Health facility data on malaria deaths have well-recognized limitations; however, in specific circumstances, they could produce reliable trends. Model-based predictions can help describe changes in malaria-specific burden and assist with program management and advocacy. Despite challenges, efforts to reduce malaria-associated mortality in Africa can be evaluated with trends in malaria intervention coverage and all-cause childhood mortality. Where there are resources and interest, complementary data on malaria morbidity and malaria-specific mortality could be added.

  10. Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission

    DOE PAGES

    Ngonghala, Calistus N.; Del Valle, Sara Y.; Zhao, Ruijun; ...

    2014-08-23

    Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease inmore » ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions.« less

  11. Malaria Epidemiology and Control Within the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research.

    PubMed

    Moss, William J; Dorsey, Grant; Mueller, Ivo; Laufer, Miriam K; Krogstad, Donald J; Vinetz, Joseph M; Guzman, Mitchel; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel M; Herrera, Socrates; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Chery, Laura; Kumar, Ashwani; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K; Ramanathapuram, Lalitha; Srivastava, H C; Cui, Liwang; Zhou, Guofa; Parker, Daniel M; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Kazura, James W

    2015-09-01

    Understanding the epidemiological features and metrics of malaria in endemic populations is a key component to monitoring and quantifying the impact of current and past control efforts to inform future ones. The International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) has the opportunity to evaluate the impact of malaria control interventions across endemic regions that differ in the dominant Plasmodium species, mosquito vector species, resistance to antimalarial drugs and human genetic variants thought to confer protection from infection and clinical manifestations of plasmodia infection. ICEMR programs are conducting field studies at multiple sites with the aim of generating standardized surveillance data to improve the understanding of malaria transmission and to monitor and evaluate the impact of interventions to inform malaria control and elimination programs. In addition, these epidemiological studies provide a vast source of biological samples linked to clinical and environmental "meta-data" to support translational studies of interactions between the parasite, human host, and mosquito vector. Importantly, epidemiological studies at the ICEMR field sites are integrated with entomological studies, including the measurement of the entomological inoculation rate, human biting index, and insecticide resistance, as well as studies of parasite genetic diversity and antimalarial drug resistance.

  12. Impact of Horizontal Approach in Vertical Program: Continuous Quality Improvement of Malaria and Tuberculosis Diagnostic Services at Primary-Level Medical Laboratories in the Context of HIV Care and Treatment Program in Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Marinucci, Francesco; Manyazewal, Tsegahun; Paterniti, Antonio D.; Medina-Moreno, Sandra; Wattleworth, Matthew; Hagembe, Juliana; Redfield, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The use of standardized tools for continuous quality improvement of laboratory services is crucial to identify service gaps, plan targeted interventions, and prove successes. Laboratory quality improvement tools (LQITs) were developed and applied for 18 months at five health centers and one faith-based hospital laboratories in Southwest Showa Zone in Ethiopia to assess and monitor the quality of malaria and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy total testing processes. For the six laboratories, baseline malaria microscopy scores were 55%, 42%, 52%, 55%, 54%, and 61%. Similarly, baseline AFB microscopy scores were 49%, 41%, 46%, 58%, 44%, and 70%. On the sixth quarter for the first four laboratories and the fourth quarter for the last two laboratories, malaria microscopy scores were 89%, 88%, 88%, 90%, 88%, and 89%, whereas AFB microscopy scores were 90%, 88%, 89%, 95%, 88%, and 90%. All laboratories scored above 85% for both services at the end of interventions. PMID:23324221

  13. Impact of horizontal approach in vertical program: continuous quality improvement of malaria and tuberculosis diagnostic services at primary-level medical laboratories in the context of HIV care and treatment program in Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Marinucci, Francesco; Manyazewal, Tsegahun; Paterniti, Antonio D; Medina-Moreno, Sandra; Wattleworth, Matthew; Hagembe, Juliana; Redfield, Robert R

    2013-03-01

    The use of standardized tools for continuous quality improvement of laboratory services is crucial to identify service gaps, plan targeted interventions, and prove successes. Laboratory quality improvement tools (LQITs) were developed and applied for 18 months at five health centers and one faith-based hospital laboratories in Southwest Showa Zone in Ethiopia to assess and monitor the quality of malaria and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy total testing processes. For the six laboratories, baseline malaria microscopy scores were 55%, 42%, 52%, 55%, 54%, and 61%. Similarly, baseline AFB microscopy scores were 49%, 41%, 46%, 58%, 44%, and 70%. On the sixth quarter for the first four laboratories and the fourth quarter for the last two laboratories, malaria microscopy scores were 89%, 88%, 88%, 90%, 88%, and 89%, whereas AFB microscopy scores were 90%, 88%, 89%, 95%, 88%, and 90%. All laboratories scored above 85% for both services at the end of interventions.

  14. Malaria Diagnosis: A Brief Review

    PubMed Central

    Duangdee, Chatnapa; Wilairatana, Polrat; Krudsood, Srivicha

    2009-01-01

    Malaria is a major cause of death in tropical and sub-tropical countries, killing each year over 1 million people globally; 90% of fatalities occur in African children. Although effective ways to manage malaria now exist, the number of malaria cases is still increasing, due to several factors. In this emergency situation, prompt and effective diagnostic methods are essential for the management and control of malaria. Traditional methods for diagnosing malaria remain problematic; therefore, new technologies have been developed and introduced to overcome the limitations. This review details the currently available diagnostic methods for malaria. PMID:19488414

  15. Malaria in pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Alvarez, Jesus R; Al-Khan, Abdulla; Apuzzio, Joseph J

    2005-12-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of malaria in densely populated areas of the United States secondary to human migration from endemic areas where factors such as cessation of vector control, vector resistance to insecticides, disease resistance to drugs, environmental changes, political instability, and indifference, have played a role for malaria becoming an overwhelming infection of these tropical underdeveloped countries. It is important for health care providers of gravida to be alert of the disease and its effects on pregnancy.

  16. Multi-scale experimental programs for estimating groundwater recharge in hydrologically changing basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntyre, Neil; Larsen, Josh; Reading, Lucy; Bulovic, Nevenka; Jarihani, Abdollah; Finch, Warren

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater recharge estimates are required to evaluate sustainable groundwater abstractions and to support groundwater impacts assessments associated with minerals and energy extraction. Increasingly, recharge estimates are also needed for regional and global scale water cycle modelling. This is especially the case in the great arid and semi-arid basins of the world due to increased water scarcity and dependence of ecosystems and livelihoods on their water supplies, and the considerable potential influence of groundwater on the hydrological cycle. Groundwater resources in the semi-arid Surat Basin of south-east Queensland, Australia, support extensive groundwater-dependent ecosystems and have historically been utilised for regional agriculture and urban water-use. Large volumes of water are currently being produced and will continue to do so as a part of coal seam gas extraction. There is considerable uncertainty about the impacts of gas extraction on water resources and the hydrological cycle, and much of this uncertainty stems from our limited knowledge about recharge processes and how to upscale them. Particular questions are about the role of storm events in controlling annual recharge, the relative contributions of local 'recharge zones' versus diffuse recharge and the translation of (relatively easily quantified) shallow drainage estimates to groundwater recharge. A multi-scale recharge research program is addressing these questions, using multiple approaches in estimating groundwater recharge, including plot and catchment scale monitoring, use of remote sensed data and simulation models. Results during the first year of the program have resulted in development of process hypotheses and experimental designs at three field sites representing key gaps in knowledge. The presentation will overview the process of designing the experimental program; how the results from these sites will be integrated with existing knowledge; and how results will be used to advance

  17. The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

    PubMed

    McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.

  18. The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

    2010-01-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

  19. Applying SNP-Derived Molecular Coancestry Estimates to Captive Breeding Programs.

    PubMed

    Ivy, Jamie A; Putnam, Andrea S; Navarro, Asako Y; Gurr, Jessica; Ryder, Oliver A

    2016-09-01

    Captive breeding programs for wildlife species typically rely on pedigrees to inform genetic management. Although pedigree-based breeding strategies are quite effective at retaining long-term genetic variation, management of zoo-based breeding programs continues to be hampered when pedigrees are poorly known. The objective of this study was to evaluate 2 options for generating single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to resolve unknown relationships within captive breeding programs. We generated SNP data for a zoo-based population of addax (Addax nasomasculatus) using both the Illumina BovineHD BeadChip and double digest restriction site-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing. Our results demonstrated that estimates of allele sharing (AS) between pairs of individuals exhibited low variances. Average AS variances were highest when using 50 loci (SNPchipall = 0.00159; ddRADall = 0.0249), but fell below 0.0003 for the SNP chip dataset when sampling ≥250 loci and below 0.0025 for the ddRAD dataset when sampling ≥500 loci. Furthermore, the correlation between the SNPchipall and ddRADall AS datasets was 0.88 (95%CI = 0.84-0.91) when subsampling 500 loci. Collectively, our results indicated that both SNP genotyping methods produced sufficient data for accurately estimating relationships, even within an extremely bottlenecked population. Our results also suggested that analytic assumptions historically integrated into the addax pedigree are not adversely impacting long-term pedigree-based management; kinships calculated from the analytic pedigree were significantly correlated (P < 0.001) with AS estimates. Overall, our conclusions are intended to serve as both a proof of concept and a model for applying molecular data to the genetic management of captive breeding programs. © The American Genetic Association 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  20. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea.

    PubMed

    Park, Jae-Won; Cheong, Hae-Kwan; Honda, Yasushi; Ha, Mina; Kim, Ho; Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis; Mueller, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions.

  1. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  2. A review of spatial technologies with applications for malaria transmission modelling and control in Africa.

    PubMed

    Gebreslasie, Michael T

    2015-11-26

    Spatial technologies, i.e. geographic information systems, remote sensing, and global positioning systems, offer an opportunity for rapid assessment of malaria endemic areas. These technologies coupled with prevalence/incidence data can provide reliable estimates of population at risk, predict disease distributions in areas that lack baseline data and provide guidance for intervention strategies, so that scarce resources can be allocated in a cost-effective manner. This review focuses on the spatial technology applications that have been used in epidemiology and control of malaria in Africa. Peer-reviewed papers identified through a PubMed search using the following keywords: geospatial technology OR Geographic Information Systems OR Remote Sensing OR Earth Observation OR Global Positioning Systems OR geospatial modelling OR malaria incidence OR malaria prevalence OR malaria risk prediction OR malaria mapping AND malaria AND Africa were used. These included mapping malaria incidence and prevalence, assessing the relationship between malaria and environmental variables as well as applications for malaria early warning systems. The potential of new spatial technology applications utilising emerging satellite information, as they hold promise to further enhance infectious risk mapping and disease prediction, are outlined. We stress current research needs to overcome some of the remaining challenges of spatial technology applications for malaria so that further and sustainable progress can be made to control and eliminate this disease.

  3. Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers. PMID:24350670

  4. Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China.

    PubMed

    Wardrop, Nicola A; Barnett, Adrian G; Atkinson, Jo-An; Clements, Archie Ca

    2013-12-18

    Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991-2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

  5. Plasmodium malariae Prevalence and csp Gene Diversity, Kenya, 2014 and 2015.

    PubMed

    Lo, Eugenia; Nguyen, Kristie; Nguyen, Jennifer; Hemming-Schroeder, Elizabeth; Xu, Jiaobao; Etemesi, Harrisone; Githeko, Andrew; Yan, Guiyun

    2017-04-01

    In Africa, control programs that target primarily Plasmodium falciparum are inadequate for eliminating malaria. To learn more about prevalence and genetic variability of P. malariae in Africa, we examined blood samples from 663 asymptomatic and 245 symptomatic persons from western Kenya during June-August of 2014 and 2015. P. malariae accounted for 5.3% (35/663) of asymptomatic infections and 3.3% (8/245) of clinical cases. Among asymptomatic persons, 71% (32/45) of P. malariae infections detected by PCR were undetected by microscopy. The low sensitivity of microscopy probably results from the significantly lower parasitemia of P. malariae. Analyses of P. malariae circumsporozoite protein gene sequences revealed high genetic diversity among P. malariae in Africa, but no clear differentiation among geographic populations was observed. Our findings suggest that P. malariae should be included in the malaria elimination strategy in Africa and highlight the need for sensitive and field-applicable methods to identify P. malariae in malaria-endemic areas.

  6. DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America.

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, D. R.; Laughlin, L. L.; Hsheih, P.; Legters, L. J.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides. PMID:9284373

  7. Plasmodium malariae Prevalence and csp Gene Diversity, Kenya, 2014 and 2015

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Kristie; Nguyen, Jennifer; Hemming-Schroeder, Elizabeth; Xu, Jiaobao; Etemesi, Harrisone; Githeko, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    In Africa, control programs that target primarily Plasmodium falciparum are inadequate for eliminating malaria. To learn more about prevalence and genetic variability of P. malariae in Africa, we examined blood samples from 663 asymptomatic and 245 symptomatic persons from western Kenya during June–August of 2014 and 2015. P. malariae accounted for 5.3% (35/663) of asymptomatic infections and 3.3% (8/245) of clinical cases. Among asymptomatic persons, 71% (32/45) of P. malariae infections detected by PCR were undetected by microscopy. The low sensitivity of microscopy probably results from the significantly lower parasitemia of P. malariae. Analyses of P. malariae circumsporozoite protein gene sequences revealed high genetic diversity among P. malariae in Africa, but no clear differentiation among geographic populations was observed. Our findings suggest that P. malariae should be included in the malaria elimination strategy in Africa and highlight the need for sensitive and field-applicable methods to identify P. malariae in malaria-endemic areas. PMID:28322694

  8. STEP and STEPSPL: Computer programs for aerodynamic model structure determination and parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batterson, J. G.

    1986-01-01

    The successful parametric modeling of the aerodynamics for an airplane operating at high angles of attack or sideslip is performed in two phases. First the aerodynamic model structure must be determined and second the associated aerodynamic parameters (stability and control derivatives) must be estimated for that model. The purpose of this paper is to document two versions of a stepwise regression computer program which were developed for the determination of airplane aerodynamic model structure and to provide two examples of their use on computer generated data. References are provided for the application of the programs to real flight data. The two computer programs that are the subject of this report, STEP and STEPSPL, are written in FORTRAN IV (ANSI l966) compatible with a CDC FTN4 compiler. Both programs are adaptations of a standard forward stepwise regression algorithm. The purpose of the adaptation is to facilitate the selection of a adequate mathematical model of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of an airplane from flight test data. The major difference between STEP and STEPSPL is in the basis for the model. The basis for the model in STEP is the standard polynomial Taylor's series expansion of the aerodynamic function about some steady-state trim condition. Program STEPSPL utilizes a set of spline basis functions.

  9. Early detection and monitoring of Malaria