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Sample records for malaria programs estimation

  1. Malaria transmission rates estimated from serological data.

    PubMed Central

    Burattini, M. N.; Massad, E.; Coutinho, F. A.

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model was used to estimate malaria transmission rates based on serological data. The model is minimally stochastic and assumes an age-dependent force of infection for malaria. The transmission rates estimated were applied to a simple compartmental model in order to mimic the malaria transmission. The model has shown a good retrieving capacity for serological and parasite prevalence data. PMID:8270011

  2. MALARIA RESEARCH PROGRAM.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    Analytical clinical summaries are presented on the following: Summary and analysis of therapeutic effect of new drugs in human volunteers with...Falciparum Malaria; Summary and analysis of therapeutic effect of new drugs in human volunteers with Vivax Malaria; Potentiation by drug combination...Problems of resistance for both old and new drugs ; Analysis of P. berghei infections; Studies on mechanisms of drug action; Cumulative summary of all new drug trials.

  3. [WHO's malaria program Roll Back Malaria].

    PubMed

    Myrvang, B; Godal, T

    2000-05-30

    Malaria is one of the main health problems in the world with 300-500 millions cases yearly and about one million deaths, mainly children in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the 1990s the malaria problem in Africa has increased, although we have methods to control the disease. In 1998 the new secretary general of WHO, Gro Harlem Brundtland, established the Roll Back Malaria programme, with the aim to markedly reduce malaria morbidity and mortality. Governments in malaria-affected countries have to take the lead in Roll Back Malaria. Their health systems must be improved and malaria control integrated into the general health system, and the methods available for prevention and treatment have to be intensified and improved. At the same time, Roll Back Malaria will encourage and promote malaria research which hopefully will result in new medicines, vaccines and other tools which will improve the chances of reducing malaria-related deaths and suffering. Roll Back Malaria is a cabinet project within the WHO, and the organisation has a key role as manager, co-ordinator and monitor of the project. However, it depends for resources on international support and commitment from other UN bodies, the World Bank, governments in the western world, pharmaceutical industry, philanthropists and other sources. At present an optimistic view prevails, and the preliminary aim, to halve the malaria mortality by the year 2010, seems realistic even with the control methods of today. However, if research efforts result in new and better tools to combat the disease, the task will definitely be easier.

  4. Lives saved by Global Fund-supported HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria programs: estimation approach and results between 2003 and end-2007

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Since 2003, the Global Fund has supported the scale-up of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria control in low- and middle-income countries. This paper presents and discusses a methodology for estimating the lives saved through selected service deliveries reported to the Global Fund. Methods Global Fund-supported programs reported, by end-2007, 1.4 million HIV-infected persons on antiretroviral treatment (ARV), 3.3 million new smear-positive tuberculosis cases detected in DOTS (directly observed TB treatment, short course) programs, and 46 million insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) delivered. We estimated the corresponding lives saved using adaptations of existing epidemiological estimation models. Results By end-2007, an estimated 681,000 lives (95% uncertainty range 619,000-774,000) were saved and 1,097,000 (993,000-1,249,000) life-years gained by ARV. DOTS treatment would have saved 1.63 million lives (1.09 - 2.17 million) when compared against no treatment, or 408,000 lives (265,000-551,000) when compared against non-DOTS treatment. ITN distributions in countries with stable endemic falciparum malaria were estimated to have achieved protection from malaria for 26 million of child-years at risk cumulatively, resulting in 130,000 (27,000-232,000) under-5 deaths prevented. Conclusions These results illustrate the scale of mortality effects that supported programs may have achieved in recent years, despite margins of uncertainty and covering only selected intervention components. Evidence-based evaluation of disease impact of the programs supported by the Global Fund with international and in-country partners must be strengthened using population-level data on intervention coverage and demographic outcomes, information on quality of services, and trends in disease burdens recorded in national health information systems. PMID:20433714

  5. Malaria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  6. Risk factors for malaria infection among rubber tappers living in a malaria control program area in southern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Pattanasin, Sarika; Satitvipawee, Pratana; Wongklang, Warunnee; Viwatwongkasem, Chukiat; Bhumiratana, Adisak; Soontornpipit, Pichitpong; Jareinpituk, Sutthi

    2012-11-01

    Rubber tappers work begins at midnight during the feeding time of Anopheles maculatus and An. minimus, two common malaria vectors in southern Thailand. We studied the association between rubber tapper behavior and malaria infections as reported to the Notified Disease Surveillance System during 2010 in Prachuab Khiri Khan Province, Thailand. In that province insecticide treated bednets are distributed free to the population and insecticide residual spraying is performed annually. A random sample of 394 rubber tapper households was interviewed from October 2010 to May 2011. Twenty-six households (6.6%) had at least one family member who contracted malaria during 2010. Poisson regression was used to identify potential characteristics associated with malaria. Multilevel Poisson regression was used to test for simultaneous effects of tapper behavior and household risk for malaria infection. The estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR) for contracting malaria among those owning a farming hut was 2.9 (95% CI 1.1-7.3, p < 0.05) after controlling for other variables. Even in areas where control programs are in place, malaria infection among rubber tappers is common. Given the Thai Government's plan to expand the rubber plantation areas to other regions of the country without specific prevention for this at-risk population, the malaria burden in Thailand may increase.

  7. Model stimulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change.

    PubMed

    Jetten, T H; Martens, W J; Takken, W

    1996-05-01

    The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its potential range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as "Anophelism without malaria." The vectors are present but malaria transmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic concept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in the world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic areas shows that the areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computations with the model presented here predict, with different climate scenarios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic regions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temperature increase of 2-4 degrees C.

  8. Determinants of Malaria Program Expenditures during Elimination: Case Study Evidence from Select Provinces in the Philippines

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jenny X.; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J.; Escubil, Luz R.; Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination. PMID:24086279

  9. Determinants of malaria program expenditures during elimination: case study evidence from select provinces in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jenny X; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J; Escubil, Luz R; Vestergaard, Lasse S; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination.

  10. Effective Program Management: A Cornerstone of Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Gosling, Jonathan; Case, Peter; Tulloch, Jim; Chandramohan, Daniel; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Newby, Gretchen; Gueye, Cara Smith; Koita, Kadiatou; Gosling, Roly

    2015-01-01

    Effective program management is essential for successful elimination of malaria. In this perspective article, evidence surrounding malaria program management is reviewed by management science and malaria experts through a literature search of published and unpublished gray documents and key informant interviews. Program management in a malaria elimination setting differs from that in a malaria control setting in a number of ways, although knowledge and understanding of these distinctions are lacking. Several core features of successful health program management are critical to achieve elimination, including effective leadership and supervision at all levels, sustained political and financial commitment, reliable supply and control of physical resources, effective management of data and information, appropriate incentives, and consistent accountability. Adding to the complexity, the requirements of an elimination program may conflict with those of a control regimen. Thus, an additional challenge is successfully managing program transitions along the continuum from control to elimination to prevention of reintroduction. This article identifies potential solutions to these challenges by exploring managerial approaches that are flexible, relevant, and sustainable in various cultural and health system contexts. PMID:26013372

  11. Effective program management: a cornerstone of malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Gosling, Jonathan; Case, Peter; Tulloch, Jim; Chandramohan, Daniel; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Newby, Gretchen; Gueye, Cara Smith; Koita, Kadiatou; Gosling, Roly

    2015-07-01

    Effective program management is essential for successful elimination of malaria. In this perspective article, evidence surrounding malaria program management is reviewed by management science and malaria experts through a literature search of published and unpublished gray documents and key informant interviews. Program management in a malaria elimination setting differs from that in a malaria control setting in a number of ways, although knowledge and understanding of these distinctions are lacking. Several core features of successful health program management are critical to achieve elimination, including effective leadership and supervision at all levels, sustained political and financial commitment, reliable supply and control of physical resources, effective management of data and information, appropriate incentives, and consistent accountability. Adding to the complexity, the requirements of an elimination program may conflict with those of a control regimen. Thus, an additional challenge is successfully managing program transitions along the continuum from control to elimination to prevention of reintroduction. This article identifies potential solutions to these challenges by exploring managerial approaches that are flexible, relevant, and sustainable in various cultural and health system contexts.

  12. Comparison of Routine Health Management Information System Versus Enhanced Inpatient Malaria Surveillance for Estimating the Burden of Malaria Among Children Admitted to Four Hospitals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Miles, Melody; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Wanzira, Humphrey; Rubahika, Denis; Nasr, Sussann; Kapella, Bryan K.; Yoon, Steven S.; Chang, Michelle; Yeka, Adoke; Staedke, Sarah G.; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    The primary source of malaria surveillance data in Uganda is the Health Management Information System (HMIS), which does not require laboratory confirmation of reported malaria cases. To improve data quality, an enhanced inpatient malaria surveillance system (EIMSS) was implemented with emphasis on malaria testing of all children admitted in select hospitals. Data were compared between the HMIS and the EIMSS at four hospitals over a period of 12 months. After the implementation of the EIMSS, over 96% of admitted children under 5 years of age underwent laboratory testing for malaria. The HMIS significantly overreported the proportion of children under 5 years of age admitted with malaria (average absolute difference = 19%, range = 8–27% across the four hospitals) compared with the EIMSS. To improve the quality of the HMIS data for malaria surveillance, the National Malaria Control Program should, in addition to increasing malaria testing rates, focus on linking laboratory test results to reported malaria cases. PMID:25422396

  13. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... common?Malaria is a health problem in many tropical and subtropical countries, including portions of Central and ... these countries. If you are traveling to a tropical area or to a country where malaria is ...

  14. Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Suh, Kathryn N.; Kain, Kevin C.; Keystone, Jay S.

    2004-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic infection of global importance. Although relatively uncommon in developed countries, where the disease occurs mainly in travellers who have returned from endemic regions, it remains one of the most prevalent infections of humans worldwide. In endemic regions, malaria is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality and creates enormous social and economic burdens. Current efforts to control malaria focus on reducing attributable morbidity and mortality. Targeted chemoprophylaxis and use of insecticide-treated bed nets have been successful in some endemic areas. For travellers to malaria-endemic regions, personal protective measures and appropriate chemoprophylaxis can significantly reduce the risk of infection. Prompt evaluation of the febrile traveller, a high degree of suspicion of malaria, rapid and accurate diagnosis, and appropriate antimalarial therapy are essential in order to optimize clinical outcomes of infected patients. Additional approaches to malaria control, including genetic manipulation of mosquitoes and malaria vaccines, are areas of ongoing research. PMID:15159369

  15. Relative risk estimation for malaria disease mapping based on stochastic SIR-SI model in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samat, Nor Azah; Ma'arof, Syafiqah Husna Mohd Imam

    2016-10-01

    Disease mapping is a study on the geographical distribution of a disease to represent the epidemiology data spatially. The production of maps is important to identify areas that deserve closer scrutiny or more attention. In this study, a mosquito-borne disease called Malaria is the focus of our application. Malaria disease is caused by parasites of the genus Plasmodium and is transmitted to people through the bites of infected female Anopheles mosquitoes. Precautionary steps need to be considered in order to avoid the malaria virus from spreading around the world, especially in the tropical and subtropical countries, which would subsequently increase the number of Malaria cases. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to discuss a stochastic model employed to estimate the relative risk of malaria disease in Malaysia. The outcomes of the analysis include a Malaria risk map for all 16 states in Malaysia, revealing the high and low risk areas of Malaria occurrences.

  16. Statistical properties of parasite density estimators in malaria.

    PubMed

    Hammami, Imen; Nuel, Grégory; Garcia, André

    2013-01-01

    Malaria is a global health problem responsible for nearly one million deaths every year around 85% of which concern children younger than five years old in Sub-Saharan Africa. In addition, around 300 million clinical cases are declared every year. The level of infection, expressed as parasite density, is classically defined as the number of asexual parasites relative to a microliter of blood. Microscopy of Giemsa-stained thick blood films is the gold standard for parasite enumeration. Parasite density estimation methods usually involve threshold values; either the number of white blood cells counted or the number of high power fields read. However, the statistical properties of parasite density estimators generated by these methods have largely been overlooked. Here, we studied the statistical properties (mean error, coefficient of variation, false negative rates) of parasite density estimators of commonly used threshold-based counting techniques depending on variable threshold values. We also assessed the influence of the thresholds on the cost-effectiveness of parasite density estimation methods. In addition, we gave more insights on the behavior of measurement errors according to varying threshold values, and on what should be the optimal threshold values that minimize this variability.

  17. Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Snow, Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches. Methods and Findings In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national

  18. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Freya M.; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J.; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S.; Battle, Katherine E.; Pigott, David M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). Conclusions/Significance We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified. PMID:27494405

  19. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... a parasite. You get it when an infected mosquito bites you. Malaria is a major cause of ... insect repellent with DEET Cover up Sleep under mosquito netting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  20. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... Malaria can be carried by mosquitoes in temperate climates, but the parasite disappears over the winter. The ... a major disease hazard for travelers to warm climates. In some areas of the world, mosquitoes that ...

  1. Malaria

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-06-01

    established, the infection is classi- fied as cryptic malaria. A large majority of infections are transmitted by the bite of an infected female ... female anopheline mosquitoes. Plasmodium sp infecting humans include Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falci- parum, Plasmodium malariae, and Plasmodium ovale...paled and pigment formed within them. Later he observed male gametes form by exflagellation and described the male and female gam- etes, the

  2. Sources of variability of estimates of malaria case counts, active and reserve components, U.S. Armed Forces.

    PubMed

    2012-01-01

    Each January, the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR) estimates numbers of malaria infections among U.S. service members using a surveillance case definition to identify "malaria cases". These cases include individuals with a hospital discharge diagnosis of malaria and those who were reported with malaria through military notifiable event reporting systems. This report compares the MSMR surveillance case definition with other proposed case definitions to demonstrate the degree to which estimates of numbers of malaria cases are dependent upon clinical settings, data sources and case-defining rules used to produce such estimates. For example, including outpatient diagnoses as malaria cases would more than double the 2010 case count. As compared with cases defined using other proposed case definitions, many more MSMR-defined cases had records of a specific Plasmodium species, a laboratory test for malaria and recent travel to a malaria-endemic country. Interpretations of the results of MSMR reports should consider how "cases" are defined.

  3. Rolling Malaria Indicator Surveys (rMIS): a potential district-level malaria monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tool for program managers.

    PubMed

    Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa; Lalloo, David G; Phiri, Kamija; Terlouw, Dianne J

    2012-01-01

    Novel malaria monitoring and evaluation (M&E) tools are urgently needed to complement the current "gold standard" Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS). Rapid up scaling of malaria control efforts is resulting in substantial reductions in malaria burden across sub-Saharan Africa. As transmission goes down, timely, accurate, sub-national, and district level burden estimates are needed to guide increasingly targeted control efforts in remaining hotspot areas. To test a novel district level M&E tool, we have conducted a continuous ("rolling") MIS (rMIS) since May 2010 covering 50 villages in Chikhwawa district in southern Malawi, essentially adapting an existing cross-sectional evaluation tool into a continuous monitoring tool. Here, we report on our experience after completing the first full year of monthly data collection focusing on the methods, operational aspects, and estimated costs of rMIS in a programmatic setting. The potential applicability of this promising M&E approach for district-level program managers and control efforts is discussed.

  4. Malaria.

    PubMed

    Heck, J E

    1991-03-01

    Human malaria is caused by four species of the genus plasmodium. The sexual stage of the parasite occurs in the mosquito and asexual reproduction occurs in man. Symptoms of fever, chills, headache, and myalgia result from the invasion and rupture of erythrocytes. Merozoites are released from erythrocytes and invade other cells, thus propagating the infection. The most vulnerable hosts are nonimmune travelers, young children living in the tropics, and pregnant women. P. falciparum causes the most severe infections because it infects RBCs of all ages and has the propensity to develop resistance to antimalarials. Rapid diagnosis can be made with a malarial smear, and treatment should be initiated promptly. In some regions (Mexico, Central America except Panama, and North Africa) chloroquine phosphate is effective therapy. In subsaharan Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia, chloroquine resistance has become widespread, and other antimalarials are necessary. The primary care physician should have a high index of suspicion for malaria in the traveler returning from the tropics. Malaria should also be suspected in the febrile transfusion recipient and newborns of mothers with malaria.

  5. Application of satellite estimates of rainfall distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model developed to assess malaria risk in areas where the disease is water-limited. This model relies on precipitation inputs as its primary forcing. Until now, applications of the model have used ground-based precipitation observations. However, rain gauge networks in the areas most affected by malaria are often sparse. The increasing availability of satellite based rainfall estimates could greatly extend the range of the model. The minimum temporal resolution of precipitation data needed was determined to be one hour. The CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH ) distributed by NOAA fits this criteria, as it provides 30-minute estimates at 8km resolution. CMORPH data were compared to ground observations in four West African villages, and calibrated to reduce overestimation and false alarm biases. The calibrated CMORPH data were used to force HYDREMATS, resulting in outputs for mosquito populations, vectorial capacity and malaria transmission.

  6. Local-scale variation in malaria infection amongst rural Gambian children estimated by satellite remote sensing.

    PubMed

    Thomas, C J; Lindsay, S W

    2000-01-01

    We investigated local-scale variation in malaria transmission and infection in children within a continuous landscape by retrospective spatial analysis of entomological and clinical data collected during 1988 and 1989 in The Gambia, West Africa. Parasite prevalence was negatively correlated with vector abundance and exposure to malaria parasites in 10 villages where entomological surveillance had been carried out. Variation in bednet use did not explain this finding. Mosquito-breeding habitat was retrospectively mapped using 20-m spatial resolution multispectral SPOT satellite imagery from 1988. From these data we estimated by linear regression the risk of exposure to malaria parasites in 26 villages where clinical surveys of children had been made. As exposure increased, so did parasite prevalence; but at higher levels of exposure, parasite prevalence declined. Our findings demonstrate marked differences in exposure to malaria in villages over distances of less than 2 km from mosquito breeding sites and suggest that there are also large differences in immunity between neighbouring settlements.

  7. Review of DoD Malaria Research Programs,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-05-01

    defined. 4. Models for P. fakiparum sporozoite infection of monkeys are expensive and not well substantiated. 5. Production and purification of recombinant...Hoffman SUBJECfl Malaria Vaccine Development OBJECTIVE: To protect against malaria by inducing immune responses that eliminate malaria infected hepatocytes...or kill the parasite within the hepatocyte. STRATEGY: 1. Identify the targets and mechanisms of protective immunity against infected hepatocytes

  8. Application of advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR)-based vegetation health indices for estimation of malaria cases.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Atiqur; Krakauer, Nir; Roytman, Leonid; Goldberg, Mitch; Kogan, Felix

    2010-06-01

    Satellite data may be used to map climatic conditions conducive to malaria outbreaks, assisting in the targeting of public health interventions to mitigate the worldwide increase in incidence of the mosquito-transmitted disease. This work analyzes correlation between malaria cases and vegetation health (VH) indices derived from satellite remote sensing for each week over a period of 14 years for Bandarban, Bangladesh. Correlation analysis showed that years with a high summer temperature condition index (TCI) tended to be those with high malaria incidence. Principal components regression was performed on patterns of weekly TCI during each of the two annual malaria seasons to construct a model as a function of the TCI. These models reduced the malaria estimation error variance by 57% if first-peak (June-July) TCI was used as the estimator and 74% if second-peak (August-September) was used, compared with an estimation of average number of malaria cases for each year.

  9. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-07

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings.

  10. Estimating mortality, morbidity and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.

    PubMed Central

    Snow, R. W.; Craig, M.; Deichmann, U.; Marsh, K.

    1999-01-01

    The contribution of malaria to morbidity and mortality among people in Africa has been a subject of academic interest, political advocacy, and speculation. National statistics for much of sub-Saharan Africa have proved to be an unreliable source of disease-specific morbidity and mortality data. Credible estimates of disease-specific burdens are required for setting global and national priorities for health in order to rationalize the use of limited resources and lobby for financial support. We have taken an empirical approach to defining the limits of Plasmodium falciparum transmission across the continent and interpolated the distributions of projected populations in 1995. By combining a review of the literature on malaria in Africa and models of acquired functional immunity, we have estimated the age-structured rates of the fatal, morbid and disabling sequelae following exposure to malaria infection under different epidemiological conditions. PMID:10516785

  11. Impact of microscopy error on estimates of protective efficacy in malaria-prevention trials.

    PubMed

    Ohrt, Colin; Purnomo; Sutamihardja, M Awalludin; Tang, Douglas; Kain, Kevin C

    2002-08-15

    Microscopy is an imperfect reference standard used for malaria diagnosis in clinical trials. The purpose of this study was to provide an assessment of the accuracy of basic microscopy, to compare polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based diagnosis with microscopy results, and to assess the effect of microscopy error on apparent protective efficacy. The sensitivity and specificity of basic, compared with expert, microscopy was determined to be 91% and 71%, respectively. In a clinical trial, agreement between PCR and microscopy results improved with expert confirmation of initial results. In a simulated 12-week trial with weekly routine malaria smears, a very high specificity (>99%) for each malaria smear was found to be necessary for an estimate of protective efficacy to be within 10%-25% of the true value, but sensitivity had little effect on this estimate. Microscopy error occurs and can affect clinical trial results.

  12. ARSENIC REMOVAL COST ESTIMATING PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Arsenic Removal Cost Estimating program (Excel) calculates the costs for using adsorptive media and anion exchange treatment systems to remove arsenic from drinking water. The program is an easy-to-use tool to estimate capital and operating costs for three types of arsenic re...

  13. Annuity-estimating program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jillie, D. W.

    1979-01-01

    Program computes benefits and other relevant factors for Federal Civil Service employees. Computed information includes retirement annuity, survivor annuity for each retirement annuity, highest average annual consecutive 3-year salary, length of service including credit for unused sick leave, amount of deposit and redeposit plus interest.

  14. Trends in Malaria in Odisha, India—An Analysis of the 2003–2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Pradhan, Madan Mohan; AK, Kavitha; Kar, Priyanka; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Panigrahi, Pinaki; Dutta, Ambarish

    2016-01-01

    Background Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003–2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003–2013 and 2014–2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003–2007) and post-intensification (2009–2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003–2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009–2013 as compared to that in 2003–2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. Conclusion The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped

  15. Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape.

    PubMed

    Reiner, Robert C; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L

    2015-10-06

    A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the 'colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine.

  16. Estimating malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes in a noisy landscape

    PubMed Central

    Reiner, Robert C.; Guerra, Carlos; Donnelly, Martin J.; Bousema, Teun; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L.

    2015-01-01

    A basic quantitative understanding of malaria transmission requires measuring the probability a mosquito becomes infected after feeding on a human. Parasite prevalence in mosquitoes is highly age-dependent, and the unknown age-structure of fluctuating mosquito populations impedes estimation. Here, we simulate mosquito infection dynamics, where mosquito recruitment is modelled seasonally with fractional Brownian noise, and we develop methods for estimating mosquito infection rates. We find that noise introduces bias, but the magnitude of the bias depends on the ‘colour' of the noise. Some of these problems can be overcome by increasing the sampling frequency, but estimates of transmission rates (and estimated reductions in transmission) are most accurate and precise if they combine parity, oocyst rates and sporozoite rates. These studies provide a basis for evaluating the adequacy of various entomological sampling procedures for measuring malaria parasite transmission from humans to mosquitoes and for evaluating the direct transmission-blocking effects of a vaccine. PMID:26400195

  17. Determination of Malaria Epidemiological Status in Iran’s Malarious Areas as Baseline Information for Implementation of Malaria Elimination Program in Iran

    PubMed Central

    RAEISI, Ahmad; GOUYA, Mohammad Mehdi; NADIM, Abolhassan; RANJBAR, Mansour; HASANZEHI, Abdolghafar; FALLAHNEZHAD, Mojtaba; SAKENI, Mohammad; SAFARI, Reza; SAFFARI, Mehdi; MASHYEKHI, Minoo; AHMADI KAHNALI, Assadalah; MIRKHANI, Vahid; ALMASIAN, Elham; Faraji, Leila; PAKTINAT JALALI, Bita; NIKPOUR, Fatemeh

    2013-01-01

    Background According to willingness of the Ministry of Health, Iran and presence of appropriate conditions for disease elimination, national malaria control program decided to conduct a research to clarify malaria status in 2007 and to provide required information to perform the elimination program. This review is comprised of the basis of national malaria elimination program in vision of 2025, which was started in 2010. Methods: In this descriptive study, data were analyzed by applications of different variables at district level. All districts in the three south eastern provinces, in which malaria has local transmission, were considered. Malaria cases has been determined and studied based on the national malaria surveillance system. Results: Since vivax malaria is predominant in Sistan & Baluchestan Province, number of vivax cases is equal to malaria positive cases approximately. The important point is that Nikshahr contains the maximum number of local vivax cases in this province and the maximum number of falciparum cases is reported from Sarbaz district. Among all districts of Hormozgan Province, no case of autochthonous falciparum was detected except in Bandar Jask and one case in Minab. There was no case of autochthonous falciparum in Kerman Province, except in Kahnoj and Ghale Ganj that each of them had one case in 2007. Conclusion: It appears that the report of locally transmitted cases in Iran is increasing over the past few years, before starting malaria elimination plan. Since the Afghan refugees started to return to their own country so the main source of reporting of imported malaria cases reduced and local cases would be demonstrated more clearly. PMID:23641411

  18. Can a single "powerless" mitochondrion in the malaria parasite contribute to parasite programmed cell death in the asexual stages?

    PubMed

    Ch'ng, Jun-Hong; Yeo, Su-Ping; Shyong-Wei Tan, Kevin

    2013-05-01

    The protozoan pathogens responsible for malaria are from the Plasmodium genus, with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax accounting for almost all clinical infections. With recent estimates of mortality exceeding 800,000 annually, malaria continues to take a terrible toll on lives and the early promises of medicine to eradicate the disease have yet to approach realization, in part due to the spread of drug resistant parasites. Recent reports of artemisinin-resistance have prompted renewed efforts to identify novel therapeutic options, and one such pathway being considered for antimalarial exploit is the parasite's programmed cell death (PCD) pathway. In this mini-review, we will discuss the roles of the plasmodium mitochondria in cell death and as a target of antimalarial compounds, taking into account recent data suggesting that PCD pathways involving the mitochondria may be attractive antimalarial targets.

  19. Mefloquine--its 20 years in the Thai Malaria Control Program.

    PubMed

    Wongsrichanalai, Chansuda; Prajakwong, Somsak; Meshnick, Steven R; Shanks, G Dennis; Thimasarn, Krongthong

    2004-06-01

    Due to the deteriorating efficacy of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP or Fansidar), from the mid-1970s the Thai Malaria Control Program was actively involved in testing potential replacement drugs to be used as the primary therapy for falciparum malaria in Thailand. In 1983, a large-scale field trial of mefloquine, a long-acting antimalarial drug known for its efficacy against chloroquine- and SP-resistant Plasmodium falciparum, was initiated on the Thai-Cambodian border. The study enrolled over 60,000 patients and eventually led to the formal establishment of mefloquine as the first line drug for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in the country. Mefloquine has played a significant role in the control of malaria in Thailand for the past two decades, initially in combination with SP, then by itself, and currently in selected areas as a partner drug in the combination therapy with artesunate. Thailand is the country with the most experience in the use of this drug in a malaria control program. We present here a review of mefloquine's pharmacology and usage in Thailand.

  20. Gender, mosquitos and malaria: implications for community development programs in Laputta, Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Tin-Oo; Pe-Thet-Htoon; Khin-Thet-Wai; Parks, W; Bryan, J

    2001-09-01

    This paper examines the gender roles linked to division of labor and potential exposure to mosquitos and malaria prevention activities. A "Human Development Initiative" (HDI) Project has been launched in Laputta, a mangrove delta region of Myanmar assisted by United Nations Development Program since 1994. The project aims to improve rural community access to primary health care and provide micro-credit programs, income generation schemes, and educational opportunities as a basis for community empowerment. Women and children of low-income households are the target beneficiaries. Prior to self-care training program and distribution of self-care manuals, altogether 20 focus group discussions (separately assigned to men and women) were conducted in eight study villages between January to February 2000. The primary vector for malaria in study area is Anopheles sundaicus. Rural women were prone to malaria due to exposure to mosquitos within the peak biting period at night because of their gender assigned roles. Both men and women perceived that mosquitos commonly bite before midnight, more at dusk. Lack of awareness of correlation between mosquitos and malaria together with lack of affordability enhance either non-use or shared use of bed-nets at home. Rural women did not consider destruction of breeding places of mosquitos as their major concern. Thus, it is essential for program planners to motivate local women for more active participation in vector control measures within and beyond their households in the context of community development programs.

  1. [Evaluation of the Malaria Evaluation Program in the national laboratory network in Colombia].

    PubMed

    García, Marisol; Mendoza, Nohora

    2002-06-01

    In 1995, the Parasitology Group--National Reference Laboratory--at the Instituto Nacional de Salud (INS) started a national malaria diagnosis program with the Public Health Laboratory Network which included training, indirect quality control, external quality control, technical assistance, advisory, reference and counter-reference, together with an annual review of the program. The purpose of this study was to carry out a three year (1997-1999) analysis of the program. In the indirect quality control program, average positive and negative concordances of 98% and 97%, respectively, and a kappa index of 0.95 were obtained by the state public health laboratories. In the external quality control program, an average concordance of 74.2% was obtained with an 89.2% participation of the registered laboratories. At the municipal level, the indirect quality control had an average concordance of 91.4% in positivity, 92.5% concordance in negativity, and a kappa index of 0.84. On the other hand, indirect quality control has been scarcely implemented by the state public health laboratories in the municipalities under their jurisdiction. In general, the program shows a good performance, despite some economic and conflict-related difficulties in the country, because people responsible at all levels for the Malaria Program have permanently carried out all other activities of the network, either according to annual programming or upon request. However, it is important to improve its coverage and the participation in its activities.

  2. Imported Malaria in Portugal 2000–2009: A Role for Hospital Statistics for Better Estimates and Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Dias, Sara S.; Baptista, João Luis; Torgal, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    Background. Although eradicated in Portugal, malaria keeps taking its toll on travelers and migrants from endemic countries. Disease notification is mandatory but is compromised by underreporting. Methods. A retrospective study on malaria hospitalizations for 10 consecutive years (2000–2009) was conducted. Data on hospitalizations and notifications were obtained from Central Administration of Health System and Health Protection Agency, respectively. For data selection ICD-9 CM and ICD-10 were used: codes 084*, 647.4, and B50–B54. Variables were gender, age, agent and origin of infection, length of stay (LOS), lethality, and comorbidities. Analysis included description, hypothesis testing, and regression. Results. There were 2003 malaria hospitalizations and 480 notified hospitalized cases, mainly in young male adults. P. falciparum was the main agent of infection acquired mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Lethality was 1.95% and mean LOS was 8.09 days. Older age entailed longer LOS and increased lethality. Discussion. From 2000 to 2009, there were 2003 malaria hospitalizations with decreasing annual incidence, these numbers being remarkably higher than those notified. The national database of diagnosis related groups, reflecting hospitalizations on NHS hospitals, may be an unexplored complementary source for better estimates on imported malaria. PMID:25548715

  3. Eradicating malaria.

    PubMed

    Breman, Joel G

    2009-01-01

    The renewed interest in malaria research and control is based on the intolerable toll this disease takes on young children and pregnant women in Africa and other vulnerable populations; 150 to 300 children die each hour from malaria amounting to 1 to 2 million deaths yearly. Malaria-induced neurologic impairment, anemia, hypoglycemia, and low birth weight imperil normal development and survival. Resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to drugs and Anopheles mosquitoes to insecticides has stimulated discovery and development of artemisinin-based combination treatments (ACTs) and other drugs, long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets (with synthetic pyrethroids) and a search for non-toxic, long-lasting, affordable insecticides for indoor residual spraying (IRS). Malaria vaccine development and testing are progressing rapidly and a recombinant protein (RTS,S/AS02A) directed against the circumsporozoite protein is soon to be in Phase 3 trials. Support for malaria control, research, and advocacy through the Global Fund for HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO and other organizations is resulting in decreasing morbidity and mortality in many malarious countries. Sustainability of effective programs through training and institution strengthening will be the key to malaria elimination coupled with improved surveillance and targeted research.

  4. Estimating the Burden of Malaria in Senegal: Bayesian Zero-Inflated Binomial Geostatistical Modeling of the MIS 2008 Data

    PubMed Central

    Giardina, Federica; Gosoniu, Laura; Konate, Lassana; Diouf, Mame Birame; Perry, Robert; Gaye, Oumar; Faye, Ousmane; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2012-01-01

    The Research Center for Human Development in Dakar (CRDH) with the technical assistance of ICF Macro and the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) conducted in 2008/2009 the Senegal Malaria Indicator Survey (SMIS), the first nationally representative household survey collecting parasitological data and malaria-related indicators. In this paper, we present spatially explicit parasitaemia risk estimates and number of infected children below 5 years. Geostatistical Zero-Inflated Binomial models (ZIB) were developed to take into account the large number of zero-prevalence survey locations (70%) in the data. Bayesian variable selection methods were incorporated within a geostatistical framework in order to choose the best set of environmental and climatic covariates associated with the parasitaemia risk. Model validation confirmed that the ZIB model had a better predictive ability than the standard Binomial analogue. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods were used for inference. Several insecticide treated nets (ITN) coverage indicators were calculated to assess the effectiveness of interventions. After adjusting for climatic and socio-economic factors, the presence of at least one ITN per every two household members and living in urban areas reduced the odds of parasitaemia by 86% and 81% respectively. Posterior estimates of the ORs related to the wealth index show a decreasing trend with the quintiles. Infection odds appear to be increasing with age. The population-adjusted prevalence ranges from 0.12% in Thillé-Boubacar to 13.1% in Dabo. Tambacounda has the highest population-adjusted predicted prevalence (8.08%) whereas the region with the highest estimated number of infected children under the age of 5 years is Kolda (13940). The contemporary map and estimates of malaria burden identify the priority areas for future control interventions and provide baseline information for monitoring and evaluation. Zero-Inflated formulations are more appropriate in

  5. A more appropriate white blood cell count for estimating malaria parasite density in Plasmodium vivax patients in northeastern Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Liu, Huaie; Feng, Guohua; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xiaomei; Bai, Yao; Deng, Shuang; Ruan, Yonghua; Morris, James; Li, Siman; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang

    2016-04-01

    The conventional method of estimating parasite densities employ an assumption of 8000 white blood cells (WBCs)/μl. However, due to leucopenia in malaria patients, this number appears to overestimate parasite densities. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of parasite density estimated using this assumed WBC count in eastern Myanmar, where Plasmodium vivax has become increasingly prevalent. From 256 patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, we estimated parasite density and counted WBCs by using an automated blood cell counter. It was found that WBC counts were not significantly different between patients of different gender, axillary temperature, and body mass index levels, whereas they were significantly different between age groups of patients and the time points of measurement. The median parasite densities calculated with the actual WBC counts (1903/μl) and the assumed WBC count of 8000/μl (2570/μl) were significantly different. We demonstrated that using the assumed WBC count of 8000 cells/μl to estimate parasite densities of P. vivax malaria patients in this area would lead to an overestimation. For P. vivax patients aged five years and older, an assumed WBC count of 5500/μl best estimated parasite densities. This study provides more realistic assumed WBC counts for estimating parasite densities in P. vivax patients from low-endemicity areas of Southeast Asia.

  6. Malaria (For Parents)

    MedlinePlus

    ... period for malaria is the time between the mosquito bite and the release of parasites from the ... Health authorities try to prevent malaria by using mosquito-control programs aimed at killing mosquitoes that carry ...

  7. The role of research in viral disease eradication and elimination programs: lessons for malaria eradication.

    PubMed

    Breman, Joel G; de Quadros, Ciro A; Dowdle, Walter R; Foege, William H; Henderson, Donald A; John, T Jacob; Levine, Myron M

    2011-01-25

    By examining the role research has played in eradication or regional elimination initiatives for three viral diseases--smallpox, poliomyelitis, and measles--we derive nine cross-cutting lessons applicable to malaria eradication. In these initiatives, some types of research commenced as the programs began and proceeded in parallel. Basic laboratory, clinical, and field research all contributed notably to progress made in the viral programs. For each program, vaccine was the lynchpin intervention, but as the programs progressed, research was required to improve vaccine formulations, delivery methods, and immunization schedules. Surveillance was fundamental to all three programs, whilst polio eradication also required improved diagnostic methods to identify asymptomatic infections. Molecular characterization of pathogen isolates strengthened surveillance and allowed insights into the geographic source of infections and their spread. Anthropologic, sociologic, and behavioural research were needed to address cultural and religious beliefs to expand community acceptance. The last phases of elimination and eradication became increasingly difficult, as a nil incidence was approached. Any eradication initiative for malaria must incorporate flexible research agendas that can adapt to changing epidemiologic contingencies and allow planning for posteradication scenarios.

  8. Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-03-31

    The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

  9. Near infrared spectroscopy for estimating the age of malaria transmiting mosquitoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milali, Masabho Peter

    We explore the use of near infrared spectrometry to classifying the age of a wild malaria transmitting mosquito. In Chapter Two, using a different set of lab-reared mosquitoes, we replicate the Mayagaya et al. study of the accuracy of near-infrared spectrometry (NIRS) to estimate the age of lab-reared mosquitoes, reproducing the published accuracy. Our results strengthen the Mayagaya et. al study and increase confidence in using NIRS to estimate age classes of mosquitoes. In the field, we wish to classify the ages of wild, not lab-reared mosquitoes, but the necessary training data from wild mosquitoes is difficult to find. Applying a model trained on spectra from lab-reared mosquitoes to estimate the age of wild mosquitoes is appropriate only if spectra collected from lab-reared mosquitoes are equivalent to those collected from wild mosquitoes. In Chapter Three, we apply k-means cluster analysis to a mixture of spectra collected from lab-reared and wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes to determine if there is significant difference between these spectra. We find no significant difference (P = 0.245) in distributions between the wild and lab-reared mosquitoes in the two formed clusters. The two formed clusters have average silhouette coefficient values (cluster quality measure) of 0.51 and 0.77, respectively, which shows that the clusters were reasonable and strong, respectively. Basing on results from Chapter Three, we estimate the age class of wild Anopheles arabiensis mosquitoes using a classification model trained on lab-reared Anopheles arabiensis. We validate the accuracy of the model by comparing its estimates with ovary dissection estimates. While our model estimated 86% and 14% of wild Anopheles arabiensis to be < 7 and ≥ 7 days old, respectively, ovary dissection estimated 72% as young and 28% as old. Studies show that wild mosquito populations generally consist of more young than old mosquitoes. Therefore, our model estimates age of wild mosquitoes in

  10. Microbial Larvicide Application by a Large-Scale, Community-Based Program Reduces Malaria Infection Prevalence in Urban Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Geissbühler, Yvonne; Kannady, Khadija; Chaki, Prosper Pius; Emidi, Basiliana; Govella, Nicodem James; Mayagaya, Valeliana; Mtasiwa, Deo; Mshinda, Hassan; Lindsay, Steven William; Tanner, Marcel; Fillinger, Ulrike; de Castro, Marcia Caldas; Killeen, Gerry Francis

    2009-01-01

    Background Malaria control in Africa is most tractable in urban settlements yet most research has focused on rural settings. Elimination of malaria transmission from urban areas may require larval control strategies that complement adult mosquito control using insecticide-treated nets or houses, particularly where vectors feed outdoors. Methods and Findings Microbial larvicide (Bacillus thuringiensis var. israelensis (Bti)) was applied weekly through programmatic, non-randomized community-based, but vertically managed, delivery systems in urban Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Continuous, randomized cluster sampling of malaria infection prevalence and non-random programmatic surveillance of entomological inoculation rate (EIR) respectively constituted the primary and secondary outcomes surveyed within a population of approximately 612,000 residents in 15 fully urban wards covering 55 km2. Bti application for one year in 3 of those wards (17 km2 with 128,000 residents) reduced crude annual transmission estimates (Relative EIR [95% Confidence Interval] = 0.683 [0.491–0.952], P = 0.024) but program effectiveness peaked between July and September (Relative EIR [CI] = 0.354 [0.193 to 0.650], P = 0.001) when 45% (9/20) of directly observed transmission events occurred. Larviciding reduced malaria infection risk among children ≤5 years of age (OR [CI] = 0.284 [0.101 to 0.801], P = 0.017) and provided protection at least as good as personal use of an insecticide treated net (OR [CI] = 0.764 [0.614–0.951], P = 0.016). Conclusions In this context, larviciding reduced malaria prevalence and complemented existing protection provided by insecticide-treated nets. Larviciding may represent a useful option for integrated vector management in Africa, particularly in its rapidly growing urban centres. PMID:19333402

  11. Estimating Supplies Program: Evaluation Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    214 Ingrown Toenails Bilateral With Secondary Infections Unresolvable At Echelon 2 215 Ingrown Toenails Without Secondary Infection 216 Herpes...Select functional areas that provide treatment for the patient stream you input. For example, if you select the Surgical Company Operating Room...readiness. (U) The primary application of supply estimation is to determine logistical requirements for medical treatment . Traditionally, medical

  12. ATR Performance Estimation Seed Program

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-28

    for this collec ion of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data ...sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collec ion of information. Send comments regarding this burden...to produce simulated MCM sonar data and demonstrate the impact of system, environmental, and target scattering effects on ATR detection

  13. Soft targets or partners in health? Retail pharmacies and their role in Tanzania's malaria control program.

    PubMed

    Kamat, Vinay R; Nyato, Daniel J

    2010-08-01

    The retail sector has been at the center of recent policy debates concerning its role in malaria control programs in Africa. This article closely examines the perspectives of owners and managers of retail pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, toward the dominant public health discourse and practices surrounding the deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) as a way forward in malaria control. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between May-August 2007, and July-August 2009, involving in-depth interviews and participant observation in pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, the article describes the social realities facing people who manage retail pharmacies, the nature of their interactions with customers, the kinds of antimalarials they sell, and their perspective on how the new malaria treatment guidelines have affected their business. Findings suggest that for most pharmacy owners and managers, it is 'business as usual' concerning the sale of conventional antimalarials, with a majority reporting that the introduction of ACT in public health facilities had not negatively affected their business. Implications of the research findings are examined in the context of proposed interventions to make pharmacy owners and managers more socially responsible and adhere to government health regulations. The article makes a case for actively involving pharmacy owners and managers in decision making processes surrounding the implementation of new treatment guidelines, and training programs that have an impact on their business, social responsibility, and community health. In considering regulatory interventions, health planners must explicitly address the concern that retail pharmacies fill an important role in the country's health care system, and that the complex nexus that drives the global pharmaceutical market often governs their operations at the local level.

  14. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  15. G6PD Deficiency Prevalence and Estimates of Affected Populations in Malaria Endemic Countries: A Geostatistical Model-Based Map

    PubMed Central

    Howes, Rosalind E.; Piel, Frédéric B.; Patil, Anand P.; Nyangiri, Oscar A.; Gething, Peter W.; Dewi, Mewahyu; Hogg, Mariana M.; Battle, Katherine E.; Padilla, Carmencita D.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2012-01-01

    Background Primaquine is a key drug for malaria elimination. In addition to being the only drug active against the dormant relapsing forms of Plasmodium vivax, primaquine is the sole effective treatment of infectious P. falciparum gametocytes, and may interrupt transmission and help contain the spread of artemisinin resistance. However, primaquine can trigger haemolysis in patients with a deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PDd). Poor information is available about the distribution of individuals at risk of primaquine-induced haemolysis. We present a continuous evidence-based prevalence map of G6PDd and estimates of affected populations, together with a national index of relative haemolytic risk. Methods and Findings Representative community surveys of phenotypic G6PDd prevalence were identified for 1,734 spatially unique sites. These surveys formed the evidence-base for a Bayesian geostatistical model adapted to the gene's X-linked inheritance, which predicted a G6PDd allele frequency map across malaria endemic countries (MECs) and generated population-weighted estimates of affected populations. Highest median prevalence (peaking at 32.5%) was predicted across sub-Saharan Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. Although G6PDd prevalence was generally lower across central and southeast Asia, rarely exceeding 20%, the majority of G6PDd individuals (67.5% median estimate) were from Asian countries. We estimated a G6PDd allele frequency of 8.0% (interquartile range: 7.4–8.8) across MECs, and 5.3% (4.4–6.7) within malaria-eliminating countries. The reliability of the map is contingent on the underlying data informing the model; population heterogeneity can only be represented by the available surveys, and important weaknesses exist in the map across data-sparse regions. Uncertainty metrics are used to quantify some aspects of these limitations in the map. Finally, we assembled a database of G6PDd variant occurrences to inform a national-level index of

  16. Malaria vaccine.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    Some have argued that the vaccine against malaria developed by Manuel Pattaroyo, a Colombian scientist, is being tested prematurely in humans and that it is unlikely to be successful. While the Pattaroyo vaccine has been shown to confer protection against the relatively mild malaria found in Colombia, doubts exist over whether it will be effective in Africa. Encouraging first results, however, are emerging from field tests in Tanzania. The vaccine triggered a strong new immune response, even in individuals previously exposed to malaria. Additional steps must be taken to establish its impact upon mortality and morbidity. Five major trials are underway around the world. The creator estimates that the first ever effective malaria vaccine could be available for widespread use within five years and he has no intention of securing a patent for the discovery. In another development, malaria specialists from 35 African countries convened at an international workshop in Zimbabwe to compare notes. Participants disparaged financial outlays for the fight against malaria equivalent to 2% of total AIDS funding as insufficient; noted intercountry differences in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment; and found information exchange between anglophone and francophone doctors to be generally poor.

  17. Evaluation of the Global Fund-supported National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea, 2009-2014.

    PubMed

    Hetzel, Manuel W; Pulford, Justin; Maraga, Seri; Barnadas, Celine; Reimer, Lisa J; Tavul, Livingstone; Jamea-Maiasa, Sharon; Tandrapah, Tony; Maalsen, Anna; Makita, Leo; Siba, Peter M; Mueller, Ivo

    2014-01-01

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is the major funaer Of the National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea (PNG). One of the requirements of a Global Fund grant is the regular and accurate reporting of program outcomes and impact. Under-performance as well as failure to report can result in reduction or discontinuation of program funding. While national information systems should be in a position to provide accurate and comprehensive information for program evaluation, systems in developing countries are often insufficient. This paper describes the five-year plan for the evaluation of the Global Fund Round 8 malaria grant to PNG (2009-2014) developed by the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research (PNGIMR). It builds on a complementary set of studies including national surveys and sentinel site surveillance for the assessment of program outcomes and impact. The PNGIMR evaluation plan is an integral part of the Global Fund grant. The evaluation program assesses intervention coverage (at individual, household and health facility levels), antimalarial drug efficacy, indicators of malaria transmission and morbidity (prevalence, incidence), and all-cause mortality. Operational research studies generate complementary information for improving the control program. Through the evaluation, PNGIMR provides scientific expertise to the PNG National Malaria Control Program and contributes to building local capacity in monitoring and evaluation. While a better integration of evaluation activities into routine systems would be desirable, it is unlikely that sufficient capacity for data analysis and reporting could be established at the National Department of Health (NDoH) within a short period of time. Long-term approaches should aim at strengthening the national health information system and building sufficient capacity at NDoH for routine analysis and reporting, while more complex scientific tasks can be supported by the PNGIMR as the de facto

  18. An Investment Case to Prevent the Reintroduction of Malaria in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed

    Shretta, Rima; Baral, Ranju; Avanceña, Anton L V; Fox, Katie; Dannoruwa, Asoka Premasiri; Jayanetti, Ravindra; Jeyakumaran, Arumainayagam; Hasantha, Rasike; Peris, Lalanthika; Premaratne, Risintha

    2017-01-23

    Sri Lanka has made remarkable gains in reducing the burden of malaria, recording no locally transmitted malaria cases since November 2012 and zero deaths since 2007. The country was recently certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in September 2016. Sri Lanka, however, continues to face a risk of resurgence due to persistent receptivity and vulnerability to malaria transmission. Maintaining the gains will require continued sustainability to the malaria program to maintain the activities aimed at preventing reintroduction. This article presents an investment case for malaria in Sri Lanka by estimating the costs and benefits of sustaining investments to prevent the reintroduction of the disease. An ingredient-based approach was used to estimate the cost of the existing program. The cost of a potential resurgence was estimated using a hypothetical scenario of resurgence assumed to occur, if all prevention of reintroduction activities were halted. These estimates were used to compute a benefit-cost ratio and the return on investment. The total economic cost of the malaria program in 2014 was estimated at U.S. dollars (USD) 0.57 per capita per year with a financial cost of USD0.37 per capita. The cost of potential malaria resurgence was, however, much higher estimated at 13 times the cost of maintaining existing activities or 21 times based on financial costs alone. This evidence suggests a substantial return on investment providing a compelling argument for advocacy for continued prioritization of funding for the prevention of reintroduction of malaria in Sri Lanka.

  19. BASIC program for power spectrum estimation. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Church, E.L.; Takacs, P.Z.

    1994-05-01

    A standard data set is presented to be used in testing routines that are developed for evaluating the one-dimensional periodogram spectral estimate of a series of uniformly spaced data points representing measurements of a surface profile. These data were generated using the GWBASIC program ``FFTPSD`` which is included in the Appendix of this report. The original purpose of this data set was to allow us to test and debug our own periodogram estimation routines, written in various programming, languages, against a standard data set. At the request of numerous individuals, we are making it available to others who may wish to do the same. We have also included a summary explanation of periodogram estimators and the various considerations that go into generating computer algorithms for power spectrum estimation.

  20. The ears of the hippopotamus: manifestations, determinants, and estimates of the malaria burden.

    PubMed

    Breman, J G

    2001-01-01

    Malarious patients experience asymptomatic parasitemia; acute febrile illness (with cerebral damage, anemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia); chronic debilitation (anemia, malnutrition, nervous system-related sequelae); and complications of pregnancy (anemia, low birth weight, increased infant mortality). These manifestations in patients, communities, and countries reflect intrinsic (human, parasite, mosquito) and extrinsic (environmental, social, behavioral, political, and economic conditions as well as disease-control efforts) determinants. At a minimum, between 700,000 and 2.7 million persons die yearly from malaria, over 75% of them African children. Between 400 and 900 million acute febrile episodes occur yearly in African children under 5 yr of age living in endemic areas. Although about half of these children are parasitemic, all merit consideration of malaria-specific therapy, which is becoming more problematic because of parasite resistance to drugs. These numbers will more than double over the next 20 yr without effective control. Fewer than 20% of these febrile episodes and deaths come to the attention of any formal health system. The relatively few ill patients who have any contact with the health services represent the "ears of the hippopotamus." Greatly intensified research activities and control of the intolerable burden of malaria are mandatory if economic development is to accelerate in Africa. In particular, support should be targeted to understanding and preventing malaria-induced anemia, hypoglycemia, effects on pregnancy, and neurologic and developmental impairment. To decrease and stop transmission of this intolerable scourge, there is an urgent need for malaria vaccines, newer drugs, and better vector control methods as well as the ability to improve current technologies and use them more efficiently.

  1. Estimating environmental benefits of energy programs

    SciTech Connect

    Baechler, M.C.; Schrock, D.W.

    1995-07-01

    Three national reporting programs that either collect or report information on energy savings and the associated emissions reductions from DSM programs are the Conservation Verification Protocols (CVP), the Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Reporting Program (VRP), and the Green Lights Program. The CVP were enacted to report the atmospheric emissions reductions of S0{sub 2} and N0{sub 2}. The VRP was mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) Section 1605(b) to report CO{sub 2}, emissions reductions. Green Lights is a program designed to reduce emissions by encouraging energy-efficient lighting. In this paper we concentrate on how the verification methods, default emission factors and reporting mechanisms affect the accuracy of the reported energy and emissions savings. Additionally, we focus on the dynamic nature of predicted emissions reductions to gauge the accuracy of predictions over time. If conservation programs are designed to affect existing powerplants, if no load growth is anticipated, and if existing plants will not require replacement, a simple static analysis based on an existing resource mix may be acceptable. This approach is enhanced by defining base case, intermediate, and peak resources. However, if today`s decisions will affect tomorrow`s resource decisions, or if the estimates will be used to establish important milestones (such as emission credits), it is prudent to conduct an analysis that captures most incumbent uncertainties. These uncertainties include future resource decisions and the regional character of energy resources, which may not be captured by national estimates and simple extrapolation techniques. While some estimation methods, such as use of default emission factors, produce reasonable national average numbers, the estimates may not be applicable to specific regions. The environmental and economic value of programs may be misstated.

  2. Estimates of short- and long-term incubation periods of Plasmodium vivax malaria in the Republic of Korea.

    PubMed

    Nishiura, Hiroshi; Lee, Hyeong-Woo; Cho, Shin-Hyeong; Lee, Wook-Gyo; In, Tae-Suk; Moon, Sung-Ung; Chung, Gyung Tae; Kim, Tong-Soo

    2007-04-01

    With the current epidemic of vivax malaria closely associated with the demilitarised zone along the border between North and South Korea, it has been suggested that the incubation period tends, in part, to be prolonged. Based on the detailed travel history of cases from 2000 to 2003 who reside in non-malarious areas, statistical estimates of the incubation periods were obtained. The data suggest that cases fall into two categories with short- and long-term incubation periods, respectively. Of 416 cases with available information, 72 and 79 successfully met our criteria for inferring the durations of short- and long-term incubation periods. The mean short- and long-term incubation periods were estimated to be 26.6 days (95% CI 21.0-32.2) and 48.2 weeks (95% CI 46.8-49.5), respectively. The maximum likelihood method was used to fit gamma and normal distributions to the short- and long-term incubation periods, assisting prediction of the frequency distribution of the overall incubation period, which exhibited a bimodal pattern. We postulate that the observed distribution reflects adaptation of the parasite to the seasonal population dynamics of the vector, Anopheles sinensis, ensuring continued transmission of vivax malaria in this temperate zone.

  3. Estimation of the In Vivo MIC of Cipargamin in Uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Hien, Tran Tinh; White, Nicholas J.; Thuy-Nhien, Nguyen Thanh; Hoa, Nhu Thi; Thuan, Phung Duc; Nosten, François; Magnusson, Baldur; Jain, Jay Prakash

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The MIC of an antimalarial drug for a particular infection is the drug level associated with a net parasite multiplication rate of one per asexual cycle. To ensure the cure of malaria, the MIC must be exceeded until all parasites have been eliminated. The development of highly sensitive and accurate PCR quantitation of low-density malaria parasitemia enables the prospective pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) characterization of antimalarial drug effects and now allows identification of the in vivo MIC. An adaptive design and a PK-PD modeling approach were used to determine prospectively the MIC of the new antimalarial cipargamin (KAE609) in adults with uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in an open-label, dose-ranging phase 2a study. Vietnamese adults with acute P. falciparum malaria were allocated sequentially to treatment with a single 30-mg (n = 6), 20-mg (n = 5), 10-mg (n = 7), or 15-mg (n = 7) dose of cipargamin. Artemisinin-based combination therapy was given after parasite densities had fallen and then risen as cipargamin levels declined below the MIC but before a return of signs or symptoms. The rates of parasite clearance were dose dependent, with near saturation of the effect being seen at an adult dose of 30 mg. The developed PK-PD model accurately predicted the therapeutic responses in 23/25 patients. The predicted median in vivo MIC was 0.126 ng/ml (range, 0.038 to 0.803 ng/ml). Pharmacometric characterization of the relationship between antimalarial drug concentrations and parasite clearance rates following graded subtherapeutic antimalarial drug dosing is safe and provides a rational framework for dose finding in antimalarial drug development. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01836458.) PMID:27872070

  4. Prospects for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Ochoa-Orozco, Sergio Andrés; González, Iveth J.; Peinado, Lucrecia; Quiñones, Martha L.; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains endemic in 21 countries of the American continent with an estimated 427,000 cases per year. Approximately 10% of these occur in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean regions. During the last decade, malaria transmission in Mesoamerica showed a decrease of ~85%; whereas, in the Caribbean region, Hispaniola (comprising the Dominican Republic [DR] and Haiti) presented an overall rise in malaria transmission, primarily due to a steady increase in Haiti, while DR experienced a significant transmission decrease in this period. The significant malaria reduction observed recently in the region prompted the launch of an initiative for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola (EMMIE) with the active involvement of the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of nine countries, the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) for Mesoamerica, and the Council of Health Ministries of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA). The EMMIE initiative is supported by the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) with active participation of multiple partners including Ministries of Health, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as research centers. EMMIE’s main goal is to achieve elimination of malaria transmission in the region by 2020. Here we discuss the prospects, challenges, and research needs associated with this initiative that, if successful, could represent a paradigm for other malaria-affected regions. PMID:25973753

  5. Prospects for malaria elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Ochoa-Orozco, Sergio Andrés; González, Iveth J; Peinado, Lucrecia; Quiñones, Martha L; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2015-05-01

    Malaria remains endemic in 21 countries of the American continent with an estimated 427,000 cases per year. Approximately 10% of these occur in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean regions. During the last decade, malaria transmission in Mesoamerica showed a decrease of ~85%; whereas, in the Caribbean region, Hispaniola (comprising the Dominican Republic [DR] and Haiti) presented an overall rise in malaria transmission, primarily due to a steady increase in Haiti, while DR experienced a significant transmission decrease in this period. The significant malaria reduction observed recently in the region prompted the launch of an initiative for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola (EMMIE) with the active involvement of the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of nine countries, the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) for Mesoamerica, and the Council of Health Ministries of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA). The EMMIE initiative is supported by the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) with active participation of multiple partners including Ministries of Health, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as research centers. EMMIE's main goal is to achieve elimination of malaria transmission in the region by 2020. Here we discuss the prospects, challenges, and research needs associated with this initiative that, if successful, could represent a paradigm for other malaria-affected regions.

  6. THE REAL McCOIL: A method for the concurrent estimation of the complexity of infection and SNP allele frequency for malaria parasites

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Hsiao-Han; Worby, Colin J.; Yeka, Adoke; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Kamya, Moses R.; Staedke, Sarah G.; Hubbart, Christina; Amato, Roberto; Kwiatkowski, Dominic P.

    2017-01-01

    As many malaria-endemic countries move towards elimination of Plasmodium falciparum, the most virulent human malaria parasite, effective tools for monitoring malaria epidemiology are urgent priorities. P. falciparum population genetic approaches offer promising tools for understanding transmission and spread of the disease, but a high prevalence of multi-clone or polygenomic infections can render estimation of even the most basic parameters, such as allele frequencies, challenging. A previous method, COIL, was developed to estimate complexity of infection (COI) from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data, but relies on monogenomic infections to estimate allele frequencies or requires external allele frequency data which may not available. Estimates limited to monogenomic infections may not be representative, however, and when the average COI is high, they can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Therefore, we developed THE REAL McCOIL, Turning HEterozygous SNP data into Robust Estimates of ALelle frequency, via Markov chain Monte Carlo, and Complexity Of Infection using Likelihood, to incorporate polygenomic samples and simultaneously estimate allele frequency and COI. This approach was tested via simulations then applied to SNP data from cross-sectional surveys performed in three Ugandan sites with varying malaria transmission. We show that THE REAL McCOIL consistently outperforms COIL on simulated data, particularly when most infections are polygenomic. Using field data we show that, unlike with COIL, we can distinguish epidemiologically relevant differences in COI between and within these sites. Surprisingly, for example, we estimated high average COI in a peri-urban subregion with lower transmission intensity, suggesting that many of these cases were imported from surrounding regions with higher transmission intensity. THE REAL McCOIL therefore provides a robust tool for understanding the molecular epidemiology of malaria across transmission settings. PMID

  7. [The American Malaria Program (1941-1946) and its sequelae for biomedical research after World War II].

    PubMed

    Bickel, M H

    1999-01-01

    After Pearl Harbor 1941 and the Japanese conquest of the Netherlands East Indies the U.S. were confronted with both a war in the malaria-ridden South Pacific and the loss of the sources of quinine. This situation gave birth to a Cooperative Wartime Program with the participation of national scientific and medical organizations, universities, hospitals, industries, and the Armed Forces. It worked as a flexible system of coordinated and cooperative units subsidized by the U.S. Government. In the course of WWII malaria casualties dropped beyond expectation due to an improved usage of quinacrine (Atebrine) which was based on new knowledge in pharmacokinetics. Furthermore, basic knowledge in malariology was improved, and a mass-screening resulted in new antimalarial drugs, such as chloroquine. The experiences of the Malaria Program were used by one of its chief architects, James A. Shannon, to transform the National Institutes of Health (NIH) into the model medical research institution whose budget for extramural programs also allowed for the nationwide post-war boom of medical research.

  8. Program for computer aided reliability estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, F. P. (Inventor)

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for estimating the reliability of self-repair and fault-tolerant systems with respect to selected system and mission parameters is presented. The computer program is capable of operation in an interactive conversational mode as well as in a batch mode and is characterized by maintenance of several general equations representative of basic redundancy schemes in an equation repository. Selected reliability functions applicable to any mathematical model formulated with the general equations, used singly or in combination with each other, are separately stored. One or more system and/or mission parameters may be designated as a variable. Data in the form of values for selected reliability functions is generated in a tabular or graphic format for each formulated model.

  9. Mobile soak pits improve spray team mobility, productivity and safety of PMI malaria control programs.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, David F; Brown, Annie S; Bouare, Sory Ibrahima; Belemvire, Allison; George, Kristen; Fornadel, Christen; Norris, Laura; Longhany, Rebecca; Chandonait, Peter J

    2016-09-15

    In the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI)-funded Africa Indoor Residual Spraying Project (AIRS), end-of-day clean-up operations require the safe disposal of wash water resulting from washing the exterior of spray tanks and spray operators' personal protective equipment. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) programs typically use soak pits - large, in-ground filters - to adsorb, filter and then safely degrade the traces of insecticide found in the wash water. Usually these soak pits are permanent installations serving 30 or more operators, located in a central area that is accessible to multiple spray teams at the end of their workday. However, in remote areas, it is often impractical for teams to return to a central soak pit location for cleanup. To increase operational efficiency and improve environmental compliance, the PMI AIRS Project developed and tested mobile soak pits (MSP) in the laboratory and in field applications in Madagascar, Mali, Senegal, and Ethiopia where the distance between villages can be substantial and the road conditions poor. Laboratory testing confirmed the ability of the easily-assembled MSP to reduce effluent concentrations of two insecticides (Actellic 300-CS and Ficam VC) used by the PMI AIRS Project, and to generate the minimal practicable environmental "footprint" in these remote areas. Field testing in the Mali 2014 IRS campaign demonstrated ease of installation and use, resulted in improved and more consistent standards of clean-up, decreased transportation requirements, improved spray team working conditions, and reduced potential for operator exposure to insecticide.

  10. Conducting International Diploma Course on Malaria Program Planning and Management (1996–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Mesdaghinia, Ali Reza; Vatandoost, Hassan; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2013-01-01

    Background: Malaria is still a public health problem in the world. One of the main objectives of World Health organization is capacity building of authorities who are involved with malaria control activities. Methods: The first course was conducted in 1996 in Bandar Abbas Training center. The course was conducted jointly by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, WHO-EMRO and School of Public health, Tehran university of Medical Sciences. In year 2002, Iran has been designated as WHO regional Malaria Training Center. Prior to initiate the course, pre-test evaluations including 11 subjects were carried out. The examinations include multiple choice questions. Different methods of teaching including lecture, laboratory, workshop, team work, field exercise and presentation were used. The duration of the course was 9 weeks. A total of 360 contact hours were taught. The main subjects were Basic epidemiology and Simple Statistics, Malaria Parasitology, Malaria disease Management, Malaria Entomology, Vector Control, Epidemiological approach, Filed work and Planning. The requirement for achievement of the course was to have at least 60% of the total mark for awarding the diploma certificate. The 13th course was conducted by the financial support of Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Results: A total of 300 participants from 26 different countries have been graduated from these courses so far. Conclusion: This course is providing the skill for decision making, how to combat against malaria in their country and is parallel to the policy of the malaria control for capacity building in malarious areas of the world. PMID:24409435

  11. Malaria Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... Laveran and the Discovery of the Malaria Parasite Ross and the Discovery that Mosquitoes Transmit Malaria Parasites ... for work associated with malaria: to Sir Ronald Ross (1902), Charles Louis Alphonse Laveran (1907), Julius Wagner- ...

  12. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models☆

    PubMed Central

    Alegana, Victor A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Wright, Jim A.; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2013-01-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. PMID:24238079

  13. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial-temporal models.

    PubMed

    Alegana, Victor A; Atkinson, Peter M; Wright, Jim A; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W; Noor, Abdisalan M

    2013-12-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination.

  14. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China – Myanmar border

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-01

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China. PMID:26785944

  15. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China--Myanmar border.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-20

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China.

  16. Research priorities for the development and implementation of serological tools for malaria surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Elliott, Salenna R.; Fowkes, Freya J.I.; Richards, Jack S.; Reiling, Linda; Drew, Damien R.

    2014-01-01

    Surveillance is a key component of control and elimination programs. Malaria surveillance has been typically reliant on case reporting by health services, entomological estimates and parasitemia (Plasmodium species) point prevalence. However, these techniques become less sensitive and relatively costly as transmission declines. There is great potential for the development and application of serological biomarkers of malaria exposure as sero-surveillance tools to strengthen malaria control and elimination. Antibodies to malaria antigens are sensitive biomarkers of population-level malaria exposure and can be used to identify hotspots of malaria transmission, estimate transmission levels, monitor changes over time or the impact of interventions on transmission, confirm malaria elimination, and monitor re-emergence of malaria. Sero-surveillance tools could be used in reference laboratories or developed as simple point-of-care tests for community-based surveillance, and different applications and target populations dictate the technical performance required from assays that are determined by properties of antigens and antibody responses. To advance the development of sero-surveillance tools for malaria elimination, major gaps in our knowledge need to be addressed through further research. These include greater knowledge of potential antigens, the sensitivity and specificity of antibody responses, and the longevity of these responses and defining antigens and antibodies that differentiate between exposure to Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax. Additionally, a better understanding of the influence of host factors, such as age, genetics, and comorbidities on antibody responses in different populations is needed. PMID:25580254

  17. 78 FR 255 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-03

    ... 111215758-2650-04] RIN 0607-AA51 Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program AGENCY: Bureau of... Bureau) is resuming the Population Estimates Challenge Program to provide eligible governmental units the opportunity to file requests for the review of population estimates for 2011 and subsequent years. The...

  18. An Investment Case to Prevent the Reintroduction of Malaria in Sri Lanka

    PubMed Central

    Shretta, Rima; Baral, Ranju; Avanceña, Anton L. V.; Fox, Katie; Dannoruwa, Asoka Premasiri; Jayanetti, Ravindra; Jeyakumaran, Arumainayagam; Hasantha, Rasike; Peris, Lalanthika; Premaratne, Risintha

    2017-01-01

    Sri Lanka has made remarkable gains in reducing the burden of malaria, recording no locally transmitted malaria cases since November 2012 and zero deaths since 2007. The country was recently certified as malaria free by World Health Organization in September 2016. Sri Lanka, however, continues to face a risk of resurgence due to persistent receptivity and vulnerability to malaria transmission. Maintaining the gains will require continued financing to the malaria program to maintain the activities aimed at preventing reintroduction. This article presents an investment case for malaria in Sri Lanka by estimating the costs and benefits of sustaining investments to prevent the reintroduction of the disease. An ingredient-based approach was used to estimate the cost of the existing program. The cost of potential resurgence was estimated using a hypothetical scenario in which resurgence assumed to occur, if all prevention of reintroduction activities were halted. These estimates were used to compute a benefit–cost ratio and a return on investment. The total economic cost of the malaria program in 2014 was estimated at U.S. dollars (USD) 0.57 per capita per year with a financial cost of USD0.37 per capita. The cost of potential malaria resurgence was, however, much higher estimated at 13 times the cost of maintaining existing activities or 21 times based on financial costs alone. This evidence suggests a substantial return on investment providing a compelling argument for advocacy for continued prioritization of funding for the prevention of reintroduction of malaria in Sri Lanka. PMID:28115673

  19. Appendix C: Biomass Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  20. Multiple Insecticide Resistance: An Impediment to Insecticide-Based Malaria Vector Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Steurbaut, Walter; Spanoghe, Pieter; Van Bortel, Wim; Denis, Leen; Tessema, Dejene A.; Getachew, Yehenew; Coosemans, Marc; Duchateau, Luc; Speybroeck, Niko

    2011-01-01

    Background Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS), insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are key components in malaria prevention and control strategy. However, the development of resistance by mosquitoes to insecticides recommended for IRS and/or ITNs/LLINs would affect insecticide-based malaria vector control. We assessed the susceptibility levels of Anopheles arabiensis to insecticides used in malaria control, characterized basic mechanisms underlying resistance, and evaluated the role of public health use of insecticides in resistance selection. Methodology/Principal findings Susceptibility status of An. arabiensis was assessed using WHO bioassay tests to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin, malathion and propoxur in Ethiopia from August to September 2009. Mosquito specimens were screened for knockdown resistance (kdr) and insensitive acetylcholinesterase (ace-1R) mutations using AS-PCR and PCR-RFLP, respectively. DDT residues level in soil from human dwellings and the surrounding environment were determined by Gas Chromatography with Electron Capture Detector. An. arabiensis was resistant to DDT, permethrin, deltamethrin and malathion, but susceptible to propoxur. The West African kdr allele was found in 280 specimens out of 284 with a frequency ranged from 95% to 100%. Ace-1R mutation was not detected in all specimens scored for the allele. Moreover, DDT residues were found in soil samples from human dwellings but not in the surrounding environment. Conclusion The observed multiple-resistance coupled with the occurrence of high kdr frequency in populations of An. arabiensis could profoundly affect the malaria vector control programme in Ethiopia. This needs an urgent call for implementing rational resistance management strategies and integrated vector control intervention. PMID:21264325

  1. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  2. 75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-04

    ... 0908171239-91412-02] RIN 0607-AA49 Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates... suspend the Population Estimates Challenge Program during both the decennial census year and the following... Procedure for Challenging Certain Population and Income Estimates) to accommodate the taking of the...

  3. Computer programs for estimating civil aircraft economics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maddalon, D. V.; Molloy, J. K.; Neubawer, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Computer programs for calculating airline direct operating cost, indirect operating cost, and return on investment were developed to provide a means for determining commercial aircraft life cycle cost and economic performance. A representative wide body subsonic jet aircraft was evaluated to illustrate use of the programs.

  4. On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2011-02-01

    This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

  5. Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation (ASBE) computer program development

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wiese, Michael R.

    1987-01-01

    A new bearing estimation algorithm (Acoustic Source Analysis Technique - ASAT) and an acoustic analysis computer program (Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation - ASBE) are described, which were developed by Computer Sciences Corporation for NASA Langley Research Center. The ASBE program is used by the Acoustics Division/Applied Acoustics Branch and the Instrument Research Division/Electro-Mechanical Instrumentation Branch to analyze acoustic data and estimate the azimuths from which the source signals radiated. Included are the input and output from a benchmark test case.

  6. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of Coordinated DSM Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hill, Lawrence J.; Brown, Marilyn A.

    1995-01-01

    A methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated programs from the standpoint of an electric or gas utility is described and illustrated. The discussion focuses on demand-side management programs cofunded by the government and utilities, but it can be applied to other types of cofunded programs. (SLD)

  7. Changes in Malaria Epidemiology in Africa and New Challenges for Elimination.

    PubMed

    Nkumama, Irene N; O'Meara, Wendy P; Osier, Faith H A

    2017-02-01

    Although the burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is gradually declining in many parts of Africa, it is characterized by spatial and temporal variability that presents new and evolving challenges for malaria control programs. Reductions in the malaria burden need to be sustained in the face of changing epidemiology whilst simultaneously tackling significant pockets of sustained or increasing transmission. Large-scale, robust surveillance mechanisms that measure rather than estimate the actual burden of malaria over time from large areas of the continent where such data are lacking need to be prioritized. We review these fascinating developments, caution against complacency, and make the case that improving the extent and quality of malaria surveillance is vital for Africa as she marches on towards elimination.

  8. Evaluating Methods for Estimating Program Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reichardt, Charles S.

    2011-01-01

    I define a treatment effect in terms of a comparison of outcomes and provide a typology of all possible comparisons that can be used to estimate treatment effects, including comparisons that are relatively unknown in both the literature and practice. I then assess the relative merit, worth, and value of all possible comparisons based on the…

  9. WHO Expert Committee on Malaria. Seventeenth report.

    PubMed

    1979-01-01

    This publication consists of guidelines to assist health administrators and planners in planning, implementing, and evaluating malaria control programs that reflect the reorientation of the World Health Organization malaria control strategy endorsed by the World Health Assembly. The report stresses approaches to malaria control, describing the recent resurgence of malaria and present constraints on malaria control; prerequisites for implementation of the revised antimalaria strategy; objectives of a malaria control program; factors affecting planning of control programs including epidemiological factors related to the environment, man, the vector, and the parasite; socioeconomic factors; and the use of antimalaria measures in 4 different situations for reduction and prevention of mortality due to malaria, reduction and prevention of mortality and morbidity particularly in high risk groups, reduction of prevalence and endemicity of malaria, or countrywide malaria control aimed ultimately at eradication; program implementation, including definition of targets, interrelationship of the malaria services, general health services, and community, and program implementation in relation to each of the 4 tactical variants; and general principles, operational and epidemiological criteria, and socioeconomic indicators for program evaluation. Factors determining malaria epidemics, outbreaks of malaria during eradication or control campaigns, forecasting and detection of malaria epidemics, and control of epidemics are then discussed. Training in malaria control and advances in antimalaria measures including drugs, immunological methods, antimosquito measures, and biological and genetic approaches to vector control and their potential value are assessed. Program coordination between countries and at regional and global levels and data collection and dissemination for international surveillance are discussed. A series of recommendations is offered for various aspects of malaria

  10. Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Cambodia

    PubMed Central

    Siv, Sovannaroth; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Bouth, Denis Mey; Lek, Dysoley; Rashid, Mohammad Abdur; By, Ngau Peng; Popovici, Jean; Huy, Rekol; Menard, Didier

    2016-01-01

    The Cambodian National Strategic Plan for Elimination of Malaria aims to move step by step toward elimination of malaria across Cambodia with an initial focus on Plasmodium falciparum malaria before achieving elimination of all forms of malaria, including Plasmodium vivax in 2025. The emergence of artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum in western Cambodia over the last decade has drawn global attention to support the ultimate goal of P. falciparum elimination, whereas the control of P. vivax lags much behind, making the 2025 target gradually less achievable unless greater attention is given to P. vivax elimination in the country. The following review presents in detail the past and current situation regarding P. vivax malaria, activities of the National Malaria Control Program, and interventional measures applied. Constraints and obstacles that can jeopardize our efforts to eliminate this parasite species are discussed. PMID:27708187

  11. EDIN0613P weight estimating program. [for launch vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirsch, G. N.

    1976-01-01

    The weight estimating relationships and program developed for space power system simulation are described. The program was developed to size a two-stage launch vehicle for the space power system. The program is actually part of an overall simulation technique called EDIN (Engineering Design and Integration) system. The program sizes the overall vehicle, generates major component weights and derives a large amount of overall vehicle geometry. The program is written in FORTRAN V and is designed for use on the Univac Exec 8 (1110). By utilizing the flexibility of this program while remaining cognizant of the limits imposed upon output depth and accuracy by utilization of generalized input, this program concept can be a useful tool for estimating purposes at the conceptual design stage of a launch vehicle.

  12. Estimated impact on birth weight of scaling up intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy given sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Africa: A mathematical model

    PubMed Central

    Floyd, Jessica; ter Kuile, Feiko; Cairns, Matt

    2017-01-01

    Background Malaria transmission has declined substantially in the 21st century, but pregnant women in areas of sustained transmission still require protection to prevent the adverse pregnancy and birth outcomes associated with malaria in pregnancy (MiP). A recent call to action has been issued to address the continuing low coverage of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp). This call has, however, been questioned by some, in part due to concerns about resistance to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), the only drug currently recommended for IPTp. Methods and findings Using an existing mathematical model of MiP, we combined estimates of the changing endemicity of malaria across Africa with maps of SP resistance mutations and current coverage of antenatal access and IPTp with SP (IPTp-SP) across Africa. Using estimates of the relationship between SP resistance mutations and the parasitological efficacy of SP during pregnancy, we estimated the varying impact of IPTp-SP across Africa and the incremental value of enhancing IPTp-SP uptake to match current antenatal care (ANC) coverage. The risks of MiP and malaria-attributable low birthweight (mLBW) in unprotected pregnancies (i.e., those not using insecticide-treated nets [ITNs]) leading to live births fell by 37% (33%–41% 95% credible interval [crI]) and 31% (27%–34% 95% crI), respectively, from 2000 to 2015 across endemic areas in sub-Saharan Africa. However, these gains are fragile, and coverage is far from optimal. In 2015, 9.5 million (8.3 million–10.4 million 95% crI) of 30.6 million pregnancies in these areas would still have been infected with Plasmodium falciparum without intervention, leading to 750,000 (390,000–1.1 million 95% crI) mLBW deliveries. In all, 6.6 million (5.6 million–7.3 million 95% crI) of these 9.5 million (69.3%) pregnancies at risk of infection (and 53.4% [16.3 million/30.6 million] of all pregnancies) occurred in settings with near-perfect SP curative

  13. Imported malaria.

    PubMed

    Schultz, M G

    1974-01-01

    There have been 4 waves of imported malaria in the USA. They occurred during the colonization of the country and during the Second World War, the UN Police Action in Korea, and the Viet-Nam conflict. The first 3 episodes are briefly described and the data on imported malaria from Viet-Nam are discussed in detail.Endemic malaria is resurgent in many tropical countries and international travel is also on the rise. This increases the likelihood of malaria being imported from an endemic area and introduced into a receptive area. The best defence for countries threatened by imported malaria is a vigorous surveillance programme. The principles of surveillance are discussed and an example of their application is provided by a description of the methods used to conduct surveillance of malaria in the USA.

  14. Estimating Software Effort Hours for Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallshein, Corinne C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation (SCE) uses labor hours or effort required to conceptualize, develop, integrate, test, field, or maintain program components. Department of Defense (DoD) SCE can use initial software data parameters to project effort hours for large, software-intensive programs for contractors reporting the top levels of process maturity,…

  15. Domestic Larval Control Practices and Malaria Prevalence among Under-Five Children in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Diabaté, Souleymane; Druetz, Thomas; Millogo, Tiéba; Ly, Antarou; Fregonese, Federica; Kouanda, Seni; Haddad, Slim

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Larval source management has contributed to malaria decline over the past years. However, little is known about the impact of larval control practices undertaken at the household level on malaria transmission. Methods The study was conducted in Kaya health district after the 2010 mass distribution of insecticide treated-nets and the initiation of malaria awareness campaigns in Burkina Faso. The aim was to (i) estimate the level of domestic larval control practices (cleaning of the house and its surroundings, eradication of larval sources, and elimination of hollow objects that might collect water); (ii) identify key determinants; and (iii) explore the structural relationships between these practices, participation in awareness-raising activities and mothers’ knowledge/attitudes/practices, and malaria prevalence among under-five children. Results Overall, 2004 households were surveyed and 1,705 under-five children were examined. Half of the mothers undertook at least one action to control larval proliferation. Mothers who had gone to school had better knowledge about malaria and were more likely to undertake domestic larval control practices. Living in highly exposed rural areas significantly decreased the odds of undertaking larval control actions. Mothers’ participation in malaria information sessions increased the adoption of vector control actions and bednet use. Malaria prevalence was statistically lower among children in households where mothers had undertaken at least one vector control action or used bed-nets. There was a 0.16 standard deviation decrease in malaria prevalence for every standard deviation increase in vector control practices. The effect of bednet use on malaria prevalence was of the same magnitude. Conclusion Cleaning the house and its surroundings, eradicating breeding sites, and eliminating hollow objects that might collect water play a substantial role in preventing malaria among under-five. There is a need for national

  16. Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Reiner, Robert C; Le Menach, Arnaud; Kunene, Simon; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Hsiang, Michelle S; Perkins, T Alex; Greenhouse, Bryan; Tatem, Andrew J; Cohen, Justin M; Smith, David L

    2015-12-29

    Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections . In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show 'malariogenic potential', a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination.

  17. KERNELHR: A program for estimating animal home ranges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seaman, D.E.; Griffith, B.; Powell, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    Kernel methods are state of the art for estimating animal home-range area and utilization distribution (UD). The KERNELHR program was developed to provide researchers and managers a tool to implement this extremely flexible set of methods with many variants. KERNELHR runs interactively or from the command line on any personal computer (PC) running DOS. KERNELHR provides output of fixed and adaptive kernel home-range estimates, as well as density values in a format suitable for in-depth statistical and spatial analyses. An additional package of programs creates contour files for plotting in geographic information systems (GIS) and estimates core areas of ranges.

  18. Malaria Research

    MedlinePlus

    ... critical role in development of those next-generation strategies. Read more about malaria prevention, treatment and control Global Cooperation Collaboration involving scientists from diverse disciplines is ...

  19. Malaria in the WHO Southeast Asia region.

    PubMed

    Kondrashin, A V

    1992-09-01

    Malaria endemic countries in the southeast Asia region include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Population movement and rapid urbanization, both largely caused by unemployment, and environmental deterioration change the malaria pattern. They also increase the incidence of drug-resistant malaria, especially resistance to 4-aminoquinolines. In India, Plasmodium falciparum is linked to the density and distribution of tribals, and, in southern Thailand, rubber tappers have the highest malaria incidence rate (46.29%). Since the population is young and the young are highly sensitive to malaria infection, the region has low community immunity. High malaria priority areas are forests, forested hills, forest fringe areas, developmental project sites, and border areas. High risk groups include infants, young children, pregnant women, and mobile population groups. Malaria incidence is between 2.5-2.8 million cases, and the slide positivity rate is about 3%. P. falciparum constitutes 40% for all malaria cases. In 1988 in India, there were 222 malaria deaths. Malaria is the 7th most common cause of death in Thailand. 3 of the 19 Anopheline species are resistant to at least 1 insecticide, particularly DDT. Posteradication epidemics surfaced in the mid-1970s. Malaria control programs tend to use the primary health care and integration approach to malaria control. Antiparasite measures range from a single-dose of an antimalarial to mass drug administration. Residual spraying continues to be the main strategy of vector control. Some other vector control measures are fish feeding on mosquito larvae, insecticide impregnated mosquito nets, and repellents. Control programs also have health education activities. India allocates the highest percentage of its total health budget to malaria control (21.54%). Few malariology training programs exist in the region. Slowly processed surveillance data limit the countries' ability to

  20. Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    2004-01-01

    LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

  1. [The ABCD of malaria prevention in pediatric travelers].

    PubMed

    Berberian, Griselda; Rosanova, M Teresa; Torroija, Cecilia; Praino, M Laura

    2014-10-01

    The development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, population and travelers movements to malaria zones have led to the resurgence of malaria as a global health problem. Estimates suggest that 660,000 deaths occur annually, mainly in infants, children and pregnant woman. Disease knowledge and protection against mosquito bites are the first line of defense against malaria. Malaria chemoprophylaxis adds to these measures, it must be evaluated based on the individual risk.

  2. Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.

  3. How accurate are physical property estimation programs for organosilicon compounds?

    PubMed

    Boethling, Robert; Meylan, William

    2013-11-01

    Organosilicon compounds are important in chemistry and commerce, and nearly 10% of new chemical substances for which premanufacture notifications are processed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) contain silicon (Si). Yet, remarkably few measured values are submitted for key physical properties, and the accuracy of estimation programs such as the Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite and the SPARC Performs Automated Reasoning in Chemistry (SPARC) system is largely unknown. To address this issue, the authors developed an extensive database of measured property values for organic compounds containing Si and evaluated the performance of no-cost estimation programs for several properties of importance in environmental assessment. These included melting point (mp), boiling point (bp), vapor pressure (vp), water solubility, n-octanol/water partition coefficient (log KOW ), and Henry's law constant. For bp and the larger of 2 vp datasets, SPARC, MPBPWIN, and the USEPA's Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (TEST) had similar accuracy. For log KOW and water solubility, the authors tested 11 and 6 no-cost estimators, respectively. The best performers were Molinspiration and WSKOWWIN, respectively. The TEST's consensus mp method outperformed that of MPBPWIN by a considerable margin. Generally, the best programs estimated the listed properties of diverse organosilicon compounds with accuracy sufficient for chemical screening. The results also highlight areas where improvement is most needed.

  4. Current situation and challenges in implementing Malaria control strategies in Pakistan.

    PubMed

    Ghanchi, N K; Shakoor, S; Thaver, A M; Khan, M S; Janjua, A; Beg, M A

    2016-08-01

    Malaria transmission is unstable in Pakistan with the highest number of cases reported during the monsoon season. Despite its high incidence, malaria is still a poorly resourced, poorly funded and an uncontrolled disease especially in far-flung areas. Pakistan's National Malaria Control Program (NMCP), although operational since its inception in 1947, has suffered due to the unstable political, socioeconomic and financial situation prevalent in the country. In Pakistan, more than 300 000 cases of malaria are reported every year with 68% of the cases caused by Plasmodium vivax. It is estimated that about 70-80% of the population accesses the private sector for treatment. As the private sector does not routinely report data to the government, the actual malaria burden could be 4-5 times higher than reported. P. vivax now accounts for more than 85% of all cases requiring hospital admission compared to 54% in 2000. In this review, we have described the saga of poor control of malaria in Pakistan over several years in context of restructuring of the Malaria Control Program, challenges to improvement, and way forward.

  5. Cost estimation for unmanned lunar and planetary programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunkin, J. H.; Pekar, P. R.; Spadoni, D. J.; Stone, C. A.

    1973-01-01

    A basic model is presented for estimating the cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs. Cost data were collected and analyzed for eight lunar and planetary programs. Total cost was separated into the following components: labor, overhead, materials, and technical support. The study determined that direct labor cost of unmanned lunar and planetary programs comprises 30 percent of the total program cost. Twelve program categories were defined for modeling: six spacecraft subsystem categories (science, structure, propulsion, electrical power, communications, and guidance and integration, test and quality assurance, launch and flight operations, ground equipment, systems analysis and engineering, and program management). An analysis showed that on a percentage basis, direct labor cost and direct labor manhours compare on a one-to-one ratio. Therefore, direct labor hours is used as the parameter for predicting cost, with the advantage of eliminating the effect of inflation on the analysis.

  6. Progress with new malaria vaccines.

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Daniel; Hill, Adrian V. S.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic disease of major global health significance that causes an estimated 2.7 million deaths each year. In this review we describe the burden of malaria and discuss the complicated life cycle of Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite responsible for most of the deaths from the disease, before reviewing the evidence that suggests that a malaria vaccine is an attainable goal. Significant advances have recently been made in vaccine science, and we review new vaccine technologies and the evaluation of candidate malaria vaccines in human and animal studies worldwide. Finally, we discuss the prospects for a malaria vaccine and the need for iterative vaccine development as well as potential hurdles to be overcome. PMID:14997243

  7. Native Larvivorous Fish in an Endemic Malarious Area of Southern Iran, a Biological Alternative Factor for Chemical Larvicides in Malaria Control Program

    PubMed Central

    SHAHI, Mehran; KAMRANI, Ehsan; SALEHI, Mehrdad; HABIBI, Reza; HANAFI-BOJD, Ahmad Ali

    2015-01-01

    Background: The widespread use of chemical insecticides, resistance in vectors and environmental problems, all have led to an increased interest in the use of biological agents in malaria control programs. The most important functional elements are the native fish. The aim of this study was to identify the native species of lavivorous fish in Rudan County, southern Iran, to introduce an effective species and to propose its’ implementation in the national malaria control program. Methods: This ecologically descriptive study was conducted during 2011–2012 using random sampling from different fish habitats of Rudan County. The shoals of fish were caught using fishing net. Fish samples were then identified in the Ichthyology lab, Department of Fisheries and the Environment, Hormozgan University. Results: Three species of larvivorous fish were identified as follows: Gambusia holbrooki, Aphaniusdispar dispar and Aphanius sp. The latter species has the most distribution in the study area and needs more morphological and molecular studies for identification at the species level. Conclusion: Two species of native fish, i.e., A. dispar and A. sp. with larvivorous potential live in the area. Further studies on their predatory property are recommended in order to apply this local potential against malaria vectors in the area. PMID:26744713

  8. Malaria Treatment (United States)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov Malaria Treatment (United States) Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Treatment of Malaria: Guidelines For Clinicians (United States) Download PDF version of Parts 1-3 formatted ...

  9. Malaria Pathogenesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Louis H.; Good, Michael F.; Milon, Genevieve

    1994-06-01

    Malaria is a disease caused by repeated cycles of growth of the parasite Plasmodium in the erythrocyte. Various cellular and molecular strategies allow the parasite to evade the human immune response for many cycles of parasite multiplication. Under certain circumstances Plasmodium infection causes severe anemia or cerebral malaria; the expression of disease is influenced by both parasite and host factors, as exemplified by the exacerbation of disease during pregnancy. This article provides an overview of malaria pathogenesis, synthesizing the recent field, laboratory, and epidemiological data that will lead to the development of strategies to reduce mortality and morbidity.

  10. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    SciTech Connect

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  11. Rationalizing historical successes of malaria control in Africa in terms of mosquito resource availability management.

    PubMed

    Killeen, Gerry F; Seyoum, Aklilu; Knols, Bart G J

    2004-08-01

    Environmental management of mosquito resources is a promising approach with which to control malaria, but it has seen little application in Africa for more than half a century. Here we present a kinetic model of mosquito foraging for aquatic habitats and vertebrate hosts that allows estimation of malaria transmission intensity by defining the availability of these resources as the rate at which individual mosquitoes encounter and use them. The model captures historically observed responses of malaria transmission to environmental change, highlights important gaps in current understanding of vector ecology, and suggests convenient solutions. Resource availability is an intuitive concept that provides an adaptable framework for models of mosquito population dynamics, gene flow, and pathogen transmission that can be conveniently parameterized with direct field measurements. Furthermore, the model presented predicts that drastic reductions of malaria transmission are possible with environmental management and elucidates an ecologic basis for previous successes of integrated malaria control in Africa before the advent of DDT or chloroquine. Environmental management for malaria control requires specialist skills that are currently lacking in sub-Saharan Africa where they are needed most. Infrastructure and human capacity building in clinical, public health, and environmental disciplines should therefore be prioritized so that growing financial support for tackling malaria can be translated into truly integrated control programs.

  12. Accuracy of the health information system on malaria surveillance in Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Erhart, A; Thang, N D; Xa, N X; Thieu, N Q; Hung, L X; Hung, N Q; Nam, N V; Toi, L V; Tung, N M; Bien, T H; Tuy, T Q; Cong, L D; Thuan, L K; Coosemans, M; D'Alessandro, U

    2007-03-01

    The health information system (HIS) is a key component of control programs and its accuracy is necessary for the assessment of disease risks, the formulation of priorities and the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of different interventions. In order to assess the quality of the HIS in estimating malaria morbidity in Vietnam, we compared data obtained by a 2-year active (ACD) and passive case detection (PCD) study with those routinely collected at the local commune health centres (CHC) at three sites having different malaria epidemiology. The majority of malaria cases (80-95%) detected by ACD were missed by the HIS. Similarly, most malaria cases (50-90%) detected by PCD were also missed by the HIS, and this was proportional to the number of active private practitioners. Reasons for this low sensitivity are low CHC attendance, high attendance at private health facilities, widespread self-medication and attendance at central health facilities. In conclusion, although malaria has sharply decreased in Vietnam over the past 10 years, the current HIS greatly underestimates the malaria burden. Involvement of the private sector and the establishment of sentinel sites might improve the quality of data and the relevance of HIS in malaria control.

  13. 77 FR 47783 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program and Proposed Changes to the Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-08-10

    ...; ] DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Bureau of the Census 15 CFR Part 90 RIN 0607-AA51 Resumption of the Population... (Census Bureau) is proposing to resume the Population Estimates Challenge Program in 2012 to provide eligible entities the opportunity to file requests for the review of population estimates for 2011...

  14. Efficiency of Nested-PCR in Detecting Asymptomatic Cases toward Malaria Elimination Program in an Endemic Area of Iran

    PubMed Central

    TURKI, Habibollah; RAEISI, Ahmad; MALEKZADEH, Kianoosh; GHANBARNEJAD, Amin; ZOGHI, Samaneh; YERYAN, Masoud; ABEDI NEJAD, Masoumeh; MOHSENI, Fatemeh; SHEKARI, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to detect low parasite and asymptomatic malaria infections by means of three malaria diagnostic tests, in a low transmission region of Minab district, Hormozgan Province, southern Iran. Methods: Blood samples of 200 healthy volunteers from Bagh-e-Malek area were evaluated using microscopic, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and nested-PCR to inspect malaria parasite. Results: The results showed no Plasmodium parasite in subjects by means of microscopy and RDT. However, 3 P. vivax positive samples (1.5%) were discovered by Nested-PCR while microscopy and RDT missed the cases. Conclusion: Microscopy as the gold standard method and RDT correctly identified 98.5% of cases, and molecular analysis is sensitive and reliable, especially in the detection of “asymptomatic” infections for active case surveillance. Regarding the existence of asymptomatic malaria in endemic area of Hormozgan, Iran, nested-PCR could be considered as a sensitive tool to interrupt malaria transmission in the country, beside the microscopic and RDT methods. PMID:25904944

  15. Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

  16. A computer program for estimation from incomplete multinomial data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    Coding is given for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the vector p of multinomial cell probabilities from incomplete data. Also included is coding to calculate and approximate elements of the posterior mean and covariance matrices. The program is written in FORTRAN 4 language for the Control Data CYBER 170 series digital computer system with network operating system (NOS) 1.1. The program requires approximately 44000 octal locations of core storage. A typical case requires from 72 seconds to 92 seconds on CYBER 175 depending on the value of the prior parameter.

  17. Malaria successes and challenges in Asia.

    PubMed

    Bhatia, Rajesh; Rastogi, Rakesh Mani; Ortega, Leonard

    2013-12-01

    Asia ranks second to Africa in terms of malaria burden. In 19 countries of Asia, malaria is endemic and 2.31 billion people or 62% of the total population in these countries are at risk of malaria. In 2010, WHO estimated around 34.8 million cases and 45,600 deaths due to malaria in Asia. In 2011, 2.7 million cases and > 2000 deaths were reported. India, Indonesia, Myanmar and Pakistan are responsible for >85% of the reported cases (confirmed) and deaths in Asia. In last 10 yr, due to availability of donor's fund specially from Global fund, significant progress has been made by the countries in Asia in scaling-up malaria control interventions which were instrumental in reducing malaria morbidity and mortality significantly. There is a large heterogeneity in malaria epidemiology in Asia. As a result, the success in malaria control/elimination is also diverse. As compared to the data of the year 2000, out of 19 malaria endemic countries, 12 countries were able to reduce malaria incidence (microscopically confirmed cases only) by 75%. Two countries, namely Bangladesh and Malaysia are projected to reach 75% reduction by 2015 while India is projected to reach 50-75% only by 2015. The trend could not be assessed in four countries, namely Indonesia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Timor-Leste due to insufficient consistent data. Numerous key challenges need to be addressed to sustain the gains and eliminate malaria in most parts of Asia. Some of these are to control the spread of resistance in Plasmodium falciparum to artemisinin, control of outdoor transmission, control of vivax malaria and ensuring universal coverage of key interventions. Asia has the potential to influence the malaria epidemiology all over the world as well as to support the global efforts in controlling and eliminating malaria through production of quality-assured ACTs, RDTs and long-lasting insecticidal nets.

  18. Evaluation of an artificial intelligence program for estimating occupational exposures.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Karen L; Phillips, Margaret L; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hall, Thomas A

    2005-03-01

    Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure (EASE) is an artificial intelligence program developed by UK's Health and Safety Executive to assess exposure. EASE computes estimated airborne concentrations based on a substance's vapor pressure and the types of controls in the work area. Though EASE is intended only to make broad predictions of exposure from occupational environments, some occupational hygienists might attempt to use EASE for individual exposure characterizations. This study investigated whether EASE would accurately predict actual sampling results from a chemical manufacturing process. Personal breathing zone time-weighted average (TWA) monitoring data for two volatile organic chemicals--a common solvent (toluene) and a specialty monomer (chloroprene)--present in this manufacturing process were compared to EASE-generated estimates. EASE-estimated concentrations for specific tasks were weighted by task durations reported in the monitoring record to yield TWA estimates from EASE that could be directly compared to the measured TWA data. Two hundred and six chloroprene and toluene full-shift personal samples were selected from eight areas of this manufacturing process. The Spearman correlation between EASE TWA estimates and measured TWA values was 0.55 for chloroprene and 0.44 for toluene, indicating moderate predictive values for both compounds. For toluene, the interquartile range of EASE estimates at least partially overlapped the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in all process areas. The interquartile range of EASE estimates for chloroprene fell above the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in one process area, partially overlapped the third quartile of the measured data in five process areas and fell within the interquartile range in two process areas. EASE is not a substitute for actual exposure monitoring. However, EASE can be used in conditions that cannot otherwise be sampled and in preliminary

  19. Oxidative Stress in Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Percário, Sandro; Moreira, Danilo R.; Gomes, Bruno A. Q.; Ferreira, Michelli E. S.; Gonçalves, Ana Carolina M.; Laurindo, Paula S. O. C.; Vilhena, Thyago C.; Dolabela, Maria F.; Green, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a significant public health problem in more than 100 countries and causes an estimated 200 million new infections every year. Despite the significant effort to eradicate this dangerous disease, lack of complete knowledge of its physiopathology compromises the success in this enterprise. In this paper we review oxidative stress mechanisms involved in the disease and discuss the potential benefits of antioxidant supplementation as an adjuvant antimalarial strategy. PMID:23208374

  20. Estimated emission reductions from California's enhanced Smog Check program.

    PubMed

    Singer, Brett C; Wenzel, Thomas P

    2003-06-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that states evaluate the effectiveness of their vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. This study demonstrates an evaluation approach that estimates mass emission reductions over time and includes the effect of I/M on vehicle deterioration. It includes a quantitative assessment of benefits from pre-inspection maintenance and repairs and accounts for the selection bias effect that occurs when intermittent high emitters are tested. We report estimates of one-cycle emission benefits of California's Enhanced Smog Check program, ca. 1999. Program benefits equivalent to metric tons per day of prevented emissions were calculated with a "bottom-up" approach that combined average per vehicle reductions in mass emission rates (g/gal) with average per vehicle activity, resolved by model year. Accelerated simulation mode test data from the statewide vehicle information database (VID) and from roadside Smog Check testing were used to determine 2-yr emission profiles of vehicles passing through Smog Check and infer emission profiles that would occur without Smog Check. The number of vehicles participating in Smog Check was also determined from the VID. We estimate that in 1999 Smog Check reduced tailpipe emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) by 97, 1690, and 81 t/d, respectively. These correspond to 26, 34, and 14% of the HC, CO, and NO(x) that would have been emitted by vehicles in the absence of Smog Check. These estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions about vehicle deterioration in the absence of Smog Check. Considering the estimated uncertainty in these assumptions yields a range for calculated benefits: 46-128 t/d of HC, 860-2200 t/d of CO, and 60-91 t/d of NO(x). Repair of vehicles that failed an initial, official Smog Check appears to be the most important mechanism of emission reductions, but pre-inspection maintenance and repair also contributed substantially. Benefits from removal of nonpassing

  1. The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

    2007-01-01

    The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals

  2. Adult and child malaria mortality in India

    PubMed Central

    Dhingra, Neeraj; Jha, Prabhat; Sharma, Vinod P; Cohen, Alan A; Jotkar, Raju M; Rodriguez, Peter S; Bassani, Diego G; Suraweera, Wilson; Laxminaryan, Ramanan; Peto, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Summary Background Malaria, a non-fatal disease if detected promptly and treated properly, still causes many deaths in malaria-endemic countries with limited healthcare facilities. National malaria mortality rates are, however, particularly difficult to assess reliably in such countries, as any fevers reliably diagnosed as malaria are likely therefore to be cured. Hence, most malaria deaths are from undiagnosed malaria, which may be misattributed in retrospective enquiries to other febrile causes of death, or vice-versa. Aim To estimate plausible ranges of malaria mortality in India, the most populous country where it remains common. Methods Nationally representative retrospective study of 122,000 deaths during 2001-03 in 6671 areas. Full-time non-medical field workers interviewed families or other respondents about each death, obtaining a half-page narrative plus answers to specific questions about the severity and course of any fevers. Each field report was scanned and emailed to two of 130 trained physicians, who independently coded underlying causes, with discrepancies resolved either via anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, adjudication. Findings Of all coded deaths at ages 1 month to 70 years, 3.6% (2681/75,342) were attributed to malaria. Of these, 2419 (90%) were rural and 2311 (86%) were not in any healthcare facility. Malaria-attributed death rates correlated geographically with local malaria transmission rates derived independently from the Indian malaria control programme, and rose after the wet season began. The adjudicated results suggest 205,000 malaria deaths per year in India before age 70 (55,000 in early childhood, 30,000 at ages 5-14, 120,000 at ages 15-69); cumulative probability 1.8% of death from malaria before age 70. Plausible upper and lower bounds (based only on the initial coding) were 125,000 to 277,000. Interpretation Despite inevitable uncertainty as to which unattended febrile deaths are from malaria, even the lower bound

  3. Mass drug administration for malaria

    PubMed Central

    Poirot, Eugenie; Skarbinski, Jacek; Sinclair, David; Kachur, S Patrick; Slutsker, Laurence; Hwang, Jimee

    2013-01-01

    Background Mass drug administration (MDA), defined as the empiric administration of a therapeutic antimalarial regimen to an entire population at the same time, has been a historic component of many malaria control and elimination programmes, but is not currently recommended. With renewed interest in MDA and its role in malaria elimination, this review aims to summarize the findings from existing research studies and program experiences of MDA strategies for reducing malaria burden and transmission. Objectives To assess the impact of antimalarial MDA on population asexual parasitaemia prevalence, parasitaemia incidence, gametocytaemia prevalence, anaemia prevalence, mortality and MDA-associated adverse events. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Infectious Disease Group Specialized Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE+, EMBASE, to February 2013. We also searched CABS Abstracts, LILACS, reference lists, and recent conference proceedings. Selection criteria Cluster-randomized trials and non-randomized controlled studies comparing therapeutic MDA versus placebo or no MDA, and uncontrolled before-and-after studies comparing post-MDA to baseline data were selected. Studies administering intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) to sub-populations (for example, pregnant women, children or infants) were excluded. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently reviewed studies for inclusion, extracted data and assessed risk of bias. Studies were stratified by study design and then subgrouped by endemicity, by co-administration of 8-aminoquinoline plus schizonticide drugs and by plasmodium species. The quality of evidence was assessed using the GRADE approach. Main results Two cluster-randomized trials, eight non-randomized controlled studies and 22 uncontrolled before-and-after studies are included in this review. Twenty-two studies (29 comparisons) compared MDA to placebo or no intervention of which two comparisons were

  4. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-01

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.

  5. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  6. Cerebral Malaria.

    PubMed

    Marsden, P D; Bruce-Chwatt, L J

    1975-01-01

    Cerebral malaria is an acute diffuse encephalopathy associated only with Plasmodium falciparum. It is probably a consequence of the rapid proliferation of the parasites in the body of man in relation to red cell invasion, and results in stagnation of blood flow in cerebralcapillaries with thromobotic occlusion of large numbers of cerebral capillaries. The subsequent cerebral pathology is cerebral infarction with haemorrhage and cerebral oedema. The wide prevalence of P. falciparum in highly endemic areas results in daily challenges to patients from several infected mosquitoes. It is thus important to understand the characteristics of P. falciparum, since this is one of the most important protozoan parasites of man and severe infection from it constitutes one of the few real clinical emergencies in tropical medicine. One of the more important aspects of the practice of medicine in the tropics is to establish a good understanding of the pattern of medical practice in that area. This applies to malaria as well as to other diseases. The neophyte might be somewhat surprised to learn, for example that an experienced colleague who lives in a holoendemic malarious area such as West Africa, sees no cerebral malaria. But the explanation is simple when the doctor concerned has a practice which involves treating adults only. Cerebral malaria is rare in adults, because in highly endemic areas, by the age of 1 year most of the infants in a group under study have already experienced their first falciparum infection. By the time they reach adult life, they have a solid immunity against severe falciparum infections. In fact, "clinical malaria" could occur in such a group under only two circumstances: 1) in pregnancy, a patent infection with P. falciparum might develop, probably due to an IgG drain across the placenta to the foetus;2) in an individual who has constantly taken antimalarials and who may have an immunity at such a low level that when antimalarial therapy is interrupted

  7. Malaria and Travelers

    MedlinePlus

    ... CDC’s Malaria Maps are another reference to help locate areas with malaria. Conduct an individualized risk assessment Prevention of malaria involves a balance between ensuring that all people who will be at risk of infection use ...

  8. Reliability estimation procedures and CARE: The Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mathur, F. P.

    1971-01-01

    Ultrareliable fault-tolerant onboard digital systems for spacecraft intended for long mission life exploration of the outer planets are under development. The design of systems involving self-repair and fault-tolerance leads to the companion problem of quantifying and evaluating the survival probability of the system for the mission under consideration and the constraints imposed upon the system. Methods have been developed to (1) model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations; (2) compute survival probability, mean life, and many other reliability predictive functions with respect to various systems and mission parameters; (3) perform sensitivity analysis of the system with respect to mission parameters; and (4) quantitatively compare competitive fault-tolerant systems. Various measures of comparison are offered. To automate the procedures of reliability mathematical modeling and evaluation, the CARE (computer-aided reliability estimation) program was developed. CARE is an interactive program residing on the UNIVAC 1108 system, which makes the above calculations and facilitates report preparation by providing output in tabular form, graphical 2-dimensional plots, and 3-dimensional projections. The reliability estimation of fault-tolerant organization by means of the CARE program is described.

  9. Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald; Lee, David; Gribko, Joana; Glaser, Bonnie

    1999-01-01

    This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

  10. Malaria control in Tanzania

    SciTech Connect

    Yhdego, M.; Majura, P. )

    1988-01-01

    A review of the malaria control programs and the problem encountered in the United Republic of Tanzania since 1945 to the year 1986 is discussed. Buguruni, one of the squatter areas in the city of Dar es Salaam, is chosen as a case study in order to evaluate the economic advantage of engineering methods for the control of malaria infection. Although the initial capital cost of engineering methods may be high, the cost effectiveness requires a much lower financial burden of only about Tshs. 3 million compared with the conventional methods of larviciding and insecticiding which requires more than Tshs. 10 million. Finally, recommendations for the adoption of engineering methods are made concerning the upgrading of existing roads and footpaths in general with particular emphasis on drainage of large pools of water which serve as breeding sites for mosquitoes.

  11. Bead-based immunoassay allows sub-picogram detection of histidine-rich protein 2 from Plasmodium falciparum and estimates reliability of malaria rapid diagnostic tests

    PubMed Central

    Rogier, Eric; Plucinski, Mateusz; Lucchi, Naomi; Mace, Kimberly; Chang, Michelle; Lemoine, Jean Frantz; Candrinho, Baltazar; Colborn, James; Dimbu, Rafael; Fortes, Filomeno; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam; Barnwell, John

    2017-01-01

    Detection of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) from the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum provides evidence for active or recent infection, and is utilized for both diagnostic and surveillance purposes, but current laboratory immunoassays for HRP2 are hindered by low sensitivities and high costs. Here we present a new HRP2 immunoassay based on antigen capture through a bead-based system capable of detecting HRP2 at sub-picogram levels. The assay is highly specific and cost-effective, allowing fast processing and screening of large numbers of samples. We utilized the assay to assess results of HRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in different P. falciparum transmission settings, generating estimates for true performance in the field. Through this method of external validation, HRP2 RDTs were found to perform well in the high-endemic areas of Mozambique and Angola with 86.4% and 73.9% of persons with HRP2 in their blood testing positive by RDTs, respectively, and false-positive rates of 4.3% and 0.5%. However, in the low-endemic setting of Haiti, only 14.5% of persons found to be HRP2 positive by the bead assay were RDT positive. Additionally, 62.5% of Haitians showing a positive RDT test had no detectable HRP2 by the bead assay, likely indicating that these were false positive tests. In addition to RDT validation, HRP2 biomass was assessed for the populations in these different settings, and may provide an additional metric by which to estimate P. falciparum transmission intensity and measure the impact of interventions. PMID:28192523

  12. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines

    PubMed Central

    Hoffman, Stephen L.; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L.; Duffy, Patrick E.

    2016-01-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  13. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-12-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  14. The march toward malaria vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-11-27

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  15. Blind deconvolution estimation of fluorescence measurements through quadratic programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campos-Delgado, Daniel U.; Gutierrez-Navarro, Omar; Arce-Santana, Edgar R.; Skala, Melissa C.; Walsh, Alex J.; Jo, Javier A.

    2015-07-01

    Time-deconvolution of the instrument response from fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) data is usually necessary for accurate fluorescence lifetime estimation. In many applications, however, the instrument response is not available. In such cases, a blind deconvolution approach is required. An iterative methodology is proposed to address the blind deconvolution problem departing from a dataset of FLIM measurements. A linear combination of a base conformed by Laguerre functions models the fluorescence impulse response of the sample at each spatial point in our formulation. Our blind deconvolution estimation (BDE) algorithm is formulated as a quadratic approximation problem, where the decision variables are the samples of the instrument response and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions. In the approximation cost function, there is a bilinear dependence on the decision variables. Hence, due to the nonlinear nature of the estimation process, an alternating least-squares scheme iteratively solves the approximation problem. Our proposal searches for the samples of the instrument response with a global perspective, and the scaling coefficients of the basis functions locally at each spatial point. First, the iterative methodology relies on a least-squares solution for the instrument response, and quadratic programming for the scaling coefficients applied just to a subset of the measured fluorescence decays to initially estimate the instrument response to speed up the convergence. After convergence, the final stage computes the fluorescence impulse response at all spatial points. A comprehensive validation stage considers synthetic and experimental FLIM datasets of ex vivo atherosclerotic plaques and human breast cancer cell samples that highlight the advantages of the proposed BDE algorithm under different noise and initial conditions in the iterative scheme and parameters of the proposal.

  16. Cerebral malaria

    PubMed Central

    Newton, C.; Hien, T. T.; White, N.

    2000-01-01

    Cerebral malaria may be the most common non-traumatic encephalopathy in the world. The pathogenesis is heterogenous and the neurological complications are often part of a multisystem dysfunction. The clinical presentation and pathophysiology differs between adults and children. Recent studies have elucidated the molecular mechanisms of pathogenesis and raised possible interventions. Antimalarial drugs, however, remain the only intervention that unequivocally affects outcome, although increasing resistance to the established antimalarial drugs is of grave concern. Artemisinin derivatives have made an impact on treatment, but other drugs may be required. With appropriate antimalarial drugs, the prognosis of cerebral malaria often depends on the management of other complications—for example, renal failure and acidosis. Neurological sequelae are increasingly recognised, but further research on the pathogenesis of coma and neurological damage is required to develop other ancillary treatments.

 PMID:10990500

  17. Houston Operations Predictor/Estimator (HOPE) programming manual, volume 1. [Apollo orbit determination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daly, J. K.

    1974-01-01

    The programming techniques used to implement the equations and mathematical techniques of the Houston Operations Predictor/Estimator (HOPE) orbit determination program on the UNIVAC 1108 computer are described. Detailed descriptions are given of the program structure, the internal program structure, the internal program tables and program COMMON, modification and maintainence techniques, and individual subroutine documentation.

  18. Vivax malaria

    PubMed Central

    Price, Ric N; Tjitra, Emiliana; Guerra, Carlos A; Yeung, Shunmay; White, Nicholas J; Anstey, Nicholas M

    2009-01-01

    Plasmodium vivax threatens almost 40% of the world’s population, resulting in 132 - 391 million clinical infections each year. Most of these cases originate from South East Asia and the Western Pacific, although a significant number also occur in Africa and South America. Although often regarded as causing a benign and self-limiting infection, there is increasing evidence that the overall burden, economic impact and severity of disease from P. vivax have been underestimated. Malaria control strategies have had limited success and are confounded by the lack of access to reliable diagnosis, emergence of multidrug resistant isolates and the parasite’s ability to transmit early in the course of disease and relapse from dormant liver stages at varying time intervals after the initial infection. Progress in reducing the burden of disease will require improved access to reliable diagnosis and effective treatment of both blood-stage and latent parasites, and more detailed characterization of the epidemiology, morbidity and economic impact of vivax malaria. Without these, vivax malaria will continue to be neglected by ministries of health, policy makers, researchers and funding bodies. PMID:18165478

  19. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  20. Malaria in Brazil: an overview

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Malaria is still a major public health problem in Brazil, with approximately 306 000 registered cases in 2009, but it is estimated that in the early 1940s, around six million cases of malaria occurred each year. As a result of the fight against the disease, the number of malaria cases decreased over the years and the smallest numbers of cases to-date were recorded in the 1960s. From the mid-1960s onwards, Brazil underwent a rapid and disorganized settlement process in the Amazon and this migratory movement led to a progressive increase in the number of reported cases. Although the main mosquito vector (Anopheles darlingi) is present in about 80% of the country, currently the incidence of malaria in Brazil is almost exclusively (99,8% of the cases) restricted to the region of the Amazon Basin, where a number of combined factors favors disease transmission and impair the use of standard control procedures. Plasmodium vivax accounts for 83,7% of registered cases, while Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for 16,3% and Plasmodium malariae is seldom observed. Although vivax malaria is thought to cause little mortality, compared to falciparum malaria, it accounts for much of the morbidity and for huge burdens on the prosperity of endemic communities. However, in the last few years a pattern of unusual clinical complications with fatal cases associated with P. vivax have been reported in Brazil and this is a matter of concern for Brazilian malariologists. In addition, the emergence of P. vivax strains resistant to chloroquine in some reports needs to be further investigated. In contrast, asymptomatic infection by P. falciparum and P. vivax has been detected in epidemiological studies in the states of Rondonia and Amazonas, indicating probably a pattern of clinical immunity in both autochthonous and migrant populations. Seropidemiological studies investigating the type of immune responses elicited in naturally-exposed populations to several malaria vaccine candidates in

  1. SIT for African malaria vectors: Epilogue

    PubMed Central

    Townson, Harold

    2009-01-01

    As a result of increased support and the diligent application of new and conventional anti-malaria tools, significant reductions in malaria transmission are being accomplished. Historical and current evolutionary responses of vectors and parasites to malaria interventions demonstrate that it is unwise to assume that a limited suite of tools will remain effective indefinitely, thus efforts to develop new interventions should continue. This collection of manuscripts surveys the prospects and technical challenges for applying a novel tool, the sterile insect technique (SIT), against mosquitoes that transmit malaria. The method has been very successful against many agricultural pest insects in area-wide programs, but demonstrations against malaria vectors have not been sufficient to determine its potential relative to current alternatives, much of which will hinge ultimately upon cost. These manuscripts provide an overview of current efforts to develop SIT and identify key research issues that remain. PMID:19917071

  2. Automated Estimating System (AES), Standard Value Update Program, user`s manual

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, R.K.; Holder, D.A.

    1994-08-01

    This manual contains instructions for operating the Standard Value Update Program. This program is operated and controlled by selected individuals in the Estimating and Scheduling Engineering Department of the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Engineering Division. It is used to control and standardized input into the Automated Estimating System (AES) Estimating program, a person computer-based software package designed to aid in the creation, updating, and reporting of project cost estimates. The AES Estimating program is documented in a separate user`s manual.

  3. [Malaria--chemoprophylaxis 2001].

    PubMed

    Hatz, F R; Beck, B; Blum, J; Funk, M; Furrer, H; Genton, B; Holzer, B; Loutan, L; Markwalder, K; Raeber, P A; Schlagenhauf, P; Siegl, G; Steffen, R; Stürchler, D; Wyss, R

    2001-06-01

    An estimated 20,000 to 30,000 cases of imported malaria are annually diagnosed in industrialised countries. Some 700 of them concern Swiss travellers and foreign guests. Exposure prophylaxis and chemoprophylaxis for high risk destinations lower the risk of malarial disease. The latter is defined as regular intake of antimalarial drugs in subtherapeutic dosage in order to suppress the development of clinical disease. Drugs are usually taken from one week before travel until four weeks after return from an endemic area. Mefloquine, doxycycline, chloroquine plus proguanil, and presumably soon also atovaquone plus proguanil are available in Switzerland for chemoprophylaxis.

  4. Vaccines against malaria.

    PubMed

    Ouattara, Amed; Laurens, Matthew B

    2015-03-15

    Despite global efforts to control malaria, the illness remains a significant public health threat. Currently, there is no licensed vaccine against malaria, but an efficacious vaccine would represent an important public health tool for successful malaria elimination. Malaria vaccine development continues to be hindered by a poor understanding of antimalarial immunity, a lack of an immune correlate of protection, and the genetic diversity of malaria parasites. Current vaccine development efforts largely target Plasmodium falciparum parasites in the pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic stages, with some research on transmission-blocking vaccines against asexual stages and vaccines against pregnancy-associated malaria. The leading pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate is RTS,S, and early results of ongoing Phase 3 testing show overall efficacy of 46% against clinical malaria. The next steps for malaria vaccine development will focus on the design of a product that is efficacious against the highly diverse strains of malaria and the identification of a correlate of protection against disease.

  5. User's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

    1980-01-01

    A user's manual for the FORTRAN IV computer program MMLE3 is described. It is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The theory and use of the program is described. The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program.

  6. Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development.

    PubMed

    Sampaio, Vanderson Souza; Siqueira, André Machado; Alecrim, Maria das Graças Costa; Mourão, Maria Paula Gomes; Marchesini, Paola Barbosa; Albuquerque, Bernardino Cláudio; Nascimento, Joabi; Figueira, Élder Augusto Guimarães; Alecrim, Wilson Duarte; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

    2015-01-01

    In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

  7. Reduced order parameter estimation using quasilinearization and quadratic programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siade, Adam J.; Putti, Mario; Yeh, William W.-G.

    2012-06-01

    The ability of a particular model to accurately predict how a system responds to forcing is predicated on various model parameters that must be appropriately identified. There are many algorithms whose purpose is to solve this inverse problem, which is often computationally intensive. In this study, we propose a new algorithm that significantly reduces the computational burden associated with parameter identification. The algorithm is an extension of the quasilinearization approach where the governing system of differential equations is linearized with respect to the parameters. The resulting inverse problem therefore becomes a linear regression or quadratic programming problem (QP) for minimizing the sum of squared residuals; the solution becomes an update on the parameter set. This process of linearization and regression is repeated until convergence takes place. This algorithm has not received much attention, as the QPs can become quite large, often infeasible for real-world systems. To alleviate this drawback, proper orthogonal decomposition is applied to reduce the size of the linearized model, thereby reducing the computational burden of solving each QP. In fact, this study shows that the snapshots need only be calculated once at the very beginning of the algorithm, after which no further calculations of the reduced-model subspace are required. The proposed algorithm therefore only requires one linearized full-model run per parameter at the first iteration followed by a series of reduced-order QPs. The method is applied to a groundwater model with about 30,000 computation nodes where as many as 15 zones of hydraulic conductivity are estimated.

  8. Appendix F: FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  9. Appendix G: Building Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  10. Appendix H: Industrial Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  11. Appendix E: Wind Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  12. Appendix I: Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  13. Appendix J: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  14. Appendix B: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  15. Prophylaxis of Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Schwartz, Eli

    2012-01-01

    Malaria prevention in travelers to endemic areas remains dependent principally on chemoprophylaxis. Although malaria chemoprophylaxis refers to all malaria species, a distinction should be drawn between falciparum malaria prophylaxis and the prophylaxis of the relapsing malaria species (vivax & ovale). While the emergence of drug resistant strains, as well as the costs and adverse reactions to medications, complicate falciparum prophylaxis use, there are virtually no drugs available for vivax prophylaxis, beside of primaquine. Based on traveler’s malaria data, a revised recommendation for using chemoprophylaxis in low risk areas should be considered. PMID:22811794

  16. ESTIMATING INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR THE SITE PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the objectives of the EPA`s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1) That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated. 2) That the program will attempt to identify ...

  17. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  18. Malaria (For Parents)

    MedlinePlus

    ... it is passed from person to person (from mother to child in "congenital malaria," or through blood ... risk for malaria. Your doctor can give your family anti-malarial drugs to prevent the disease, which ...

  19. Evaluation Methodologies for Estimating the Likelihood of Program Implementation Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Durand, Roger; Decker, Phillip J.; Kirkman, Dorothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Despite our best efforts as evaluators, program implementation failures abound. A wide variety of valuable methodologies have been adopted to explain and evaluate the "why" of these failures. Yet, typically these methodologies have been employed concurrently (e.g., project monitoring) or to the post-hoc assessment of program activities.…

  20. A BASIC Microcomputer Program for Estimating Test Reliability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cobern, William W.

    This computer program, written in BASIC, performs three different calculations of test reliability: (1) the Kuder-Richardson method; (2); the "common split-half" method; and (3) the Rulon-Guttman split-half method. The program reads sequential access data files for microcomputers that have been set up by statistical packages such as…

  1. The Value of Information in Decision-Analytic Modeling for Malaria Vector Control in East Africa.

    PubMed

    Kim, Dohyeong; Brown, Zachary; Anderson, Richard; Mutero, Clifford; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Wiener, Jonathan; Kramer, Randall

    2016-03-23

    Decision analysis tools and mathematical modeling are increasingly emphasized in malaria control programs worldwide to improve resource allocation and address ongoing challenges with sustainability. However, such tools require substantial scientific evidence, which is costly to acquire. The value of information (VOI) has been proposed as a metric for gauging the value of reduced model uncertainty. We apply this concept to an evidenced-based Malaria Decision Analysis Support Tool (MDAST) designed for application in East Africa. In developing MDAST, substantial gaps in the scientific evidence base were identified regarding insecticide resistance in malaria vector control and the effectiveness of alternative mosquito control approaches, including larviciding. We identify four entomological parameters in the model (two for insecticide resistance and two for larviciding) that involve high levels of uncertainty and to which outputs in MDAST are sensitive. We estimate and compare a VOI for combinations of these parameters in evaluating three policy alternatives relative to a status quo policy. We find having perfect information on the uncertain parameters could improve program net benefits by up to 5-21%, with the highest VOI associated with jointly eliminating uncertainty about reproductive speed of malaria-transmitting mosquitoes and initial efficacy of larviciding at reducing the emergence of new adult mosquitoes. Future research on parameter uncertainty in decision analysis of malaria control policy should investigate the VOI with respect to other aspects of malaria transmission (such as antimalarial resistance), the costs of reducing uncertainty in these parameters, and the extent to which imperfect information about these parameters can improve payoffs.

  2. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is the most important vector-borne tropical disease (Collins and Paskewitz, 1995) and there is no simple and universally applicable form of vector control. While new methods such as malaria vaccine or genetic manipulation of mosquitoes are being explored in the laboratories, the need for more field research on malaria transmission remains very strong. For the foreseeable future many malaria programs must focus on controlling the vector, the anopheline mosquito, often under the specter of shrinking budgets. Therefore information on which human populations are at the greatest risk is especially valuable when allocating scarce resources. The goal of the Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control Project is to demonstrate the feasibility of using Radarsat or other comparable satellite radar imaging systems to determine where and when human populations are at greatest risk for contracting malaria. The study area is northern Belize, a region with abundant wetlands and a potentially serious malaria problem. A key aspect of this study is the analysis of multi-temporal satellite imagery to track seasonal flooding of anopheline mosquito breeding sites. Radarsat images of the test site in Belize have been acquired one to three times a month over the last year, however,, to date only one processed image has been received from the Alaska SAR Facility for analysis. Therefore analysis at this stage is focussed on determining the radar backscatter characteristics of known anopheline breeding sites, with future work to be dedicated toward seasonal changes.

  3. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is perhaps the most serious human disease problem. It inflicts millions worldwide and is on the rise in many countries where it was once under control. This rise is in part due to the high costs, both economic and environmental, of current control programs. The search for more cost-effective means to combat malaria has focussed attention on new technologies, one of which is remote sensing. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the effort to control a variety of diseases worldwide and malaria is perhaps one of the most promising. This study is part of the malaria control effort in the Central American country of Belize, which has experienced a resurgence of malaria in the last two decades. The proposed project is a feasibility study of the use of Radarsat (and other similar radar systems) to monitor seasonal changes in the breeding sites of the anopheline mosquito, which is responsible for malaria transmission. We propose that spatial and temporal changes in anopheline mosquito production can be predicted by sensing where and when their breeding sites are flooded. Timely knowledge of anopheline mosquito production is a key factor in control efforts. Such knowledge can be used by local control agencies to direct their limited resources to selected areas and time periods when the human population is at greatest risk. Radar is a key sensor in this application because frequent cloud cover during the peak periods of malaria transmission precludes the use of optical sensors.

  4. Ranking Malaria Risk Factors to Guide Malaria Control Efforts in African Highlands

    PubMed Central

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. Methods and Findings A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through “classification and regression trees”, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. Conclusions In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors. PMID:19946627

  5. Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Methods Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Results Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the

  6. A Hybrid Method to Estimate Specific Differential Phase and Rainfall With Linear Programming and Physics Constraints

    DOE PAGES

    Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun; ...

    2016-10-20

    A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (KDP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid KDP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δhv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and KDP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid KDP estimator over existing methods.

  7. Malaria. Can WHO roll back malaria?

    PubMed

    Balter, M

    2000-10-20

    In October 1998, World Health Organization Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland announced Roll Back Malaria, a multiagency crusade that aims to cut malaria mortality in half over the next 10 years. Brundtland might just be the one to pull it off, say numerous public health experts, although some researchers question whether the goal is realistic.

  8. Malaria in South Asia: Prevalence and control

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ashwani; Chery, Laura; Biswas, Chinmoy; Dubhashi, Nagesh; Dutta, Prafulla; Dua, Virendra Kumar; Kacchap, Mridula; Kakati, Sanjeeb; Khandeparkar, Anar; Kour, Dalip; Mahajanj, Satish N.; Maji, Ardhendu; Majumder, Partha; Mohanta, Jagadish; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K.; Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Roy, Krishnangshu; Shastri, Jayanthi; Valecha, Neena; Vikash, Rana; Wani, Reena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2013-01-01

    The “Malaria Evolution in South Asia” (MESA) program project is an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. This US–India collaborative program will study the origin of genetic diversity of malaria parasites and their selection on the Indian subcontinent. This knowledge should contribute to a better understanding of unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. In this first of two reviews, we highlight malaria prevalence in India. In particular, we draw attention to variations in distribution of different human-parasites and different vectors, variation in drug resistance traits, and multiple forms of clinical presentations. Uneven malaria severity in India is often attributed to large discrepancies in health care accessibility as well as human migrations within the country and across neighboring borders. Poor access to health care goes hand in hand with poor reporting from some of the same areas, combining to possibly distort disease prevalence and death from malaria in some parts of India. Corrections are underway in the form of increased resources for disease control, greater engagement of village-level health workers for early diagnosis and treatment, and possibly new public–private partnerships activities accompanying traditional national malaria control programs in the most severely affected areas. A second accompanying review raises the possibility that, beyond uneven health care, evolutionary pressures may alter malaria parasites in ways that contribute to severe disease in India, particularly in the NE corridor of India bordering Myanmar Narayanasamy et al., 2012. PMID:22248528

  9. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Angel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A; Beier, John C; Herrera, Socrates

    2012-03-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent's contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1-1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty percent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2%) followed by P. falciparum (25.7%) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA) (sponsored by

  10. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Ángel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A.; Beier, John C.; Herrera, Socrates

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent’s contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1 to 1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty per cent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2 %) followed by P. falciparum (25.7 %) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA

  11. Malaria: developing an action programme.

    PubMed

    Seadzi, G K; Nyonator, F K

    1995-03-01

    Malaria is the most common reason that people seek medical care in Ghana. This situation is taken for granted by the people, and there is no organized prevention effort. A World Health Organization-sponsored pilot malaria eradication program (1958-64) was abandoned after a peak period of activity in 1963 when vector control included indoor spraying with DDT. Recently there has been an upward trend in the incidence of malaria, with 15% of all cases becoming complicated. The main vector species are A. gambiae, A. melas, and A. funestus, and the predominant parasite species is Plasmodium falciparum. Treatment of choice is chloroquine phosphate, and although drug resistance has been suspected, it has not been documented. All health facilities are stretched to the limit with regard to the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Field research is needed to provide a more accurate picture of the current situation. The clinical ability to deliver prompt diagnoses and treatment must be strengthened, and public health education must be instituted. The regional health management system must be improved, and personnel must be taught to use collected data. The use of bed nets, which is common in the south, should be encouraged, and impregnated nets should be introduced.

  12. Malaria in Sucre State, Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Zimmerman, R H

    2000-01-01

    The author reviews the malaria research program in Sucre State, Venezuela, taking an ecosystem approach. The goal was to determine which methods could have been introduced at the onset that would have made the study more ecological and interdisciplinary. Neither an ecosystem approach nor integrated disease control were in place at the time of the study. This study began to introduce an ecosystem approach when two contrasting ecosystems in Sucre State were selected for study and vector control methods were implemented based on research results. The need to have a health policy in place with an eco-health approach is crucial to the success of research and control. The review suggests that sustainability is low when not all the stakeholders are involved in the design and implementation of the research and control strategy development. The lack of community involvement makes sustainability doubtful. The author concludes that there were two interdependent challenges for malaria control: development of an ecosystem approach for malaria research and control, and the implementation of an integrated disease control strategy, with malaria as one of the important health issues.

  13. Malaria-related anaemia: a Latin American perspective

    PubMed Central

    Quintero, Juan Pablo; Siqueira, André Machado; Tobón, Alberto; Blair, Silvia; Moreno, Alberto; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Valencia, Sócrates Herrera

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is the most important parasitic disease worldwide, responsible for an estimated 225 million clinical cases each year. It mainly affects children, pregnant women and non-immune adults who frequently die victims of cerebral manifestations and anaemia. Although the contribution of the American continent to the global malaria burden is only around 1.2 million clinical cases annually, there are 170 million inhabitants living at risk of malaria transmission in this region. On the African continent, where Plasmodium falciparum is the most prevalent human malaria parasite, anaemia is responsible for about half of the malaria-related deaths. Conversely, in Latin America (LA), malaria-related anaemia appears to be uncommon, though there is a limited knowledge about its real prevalence. This may be partially explained by several factors, including that the overall malaria burden in LA is significantly lower than that of Africa, that Plasmodium vivax, the predominant Plasmodium species in the region, appears to display a different clinical spectrus and most likely because better health services in LA prevent the development of severe malaria cases. With the aim of contributing to the understanding of the real importance of malaria-related anaemia in LA, we discuss here a revision of the available literature on the subject and the usefulness of experimental animal models, including New World monkeys, particularly for the study of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of malaria. PMID:21881762

  14. Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Buckee, Caroline; Marti, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps. PMID:26086192

  15. The Biological Control of the Malaria Vector

    PubMed Central

    Kamareddine, Layla

    2012-01-01

    The call for malaria control, over the last century, marked a new epoch in the history of this disease. Many control strategies targeting either the Plasmodium parasite or the Anopheles vector were shown to be effective. Yet, the emergence of drug resistant parasites and insecticide resistant mosquito strains, along with numerous health, environmental, and ecological side effects of many chemical agents, highlighted the need to develop alternative tools that either complement or substitute conventional malaria control approaches. The use of biological means is considered a fundamental part of the recently launched malaria eradication program and has so far shown promising results, although this approach is still in its infancy. This review presents an overview of the most promising biological control tools for malaria eradication, namely fungi, bacteria, larvivorous fish, parasites, viruses and nematodes. PMID:23105979

  16. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  17. Urbanization, malaria transmission and disease burden in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Snow, Robert W.

    2011-01-01

    Many attempts have been made to quantify Africa’s malaria burden but none has addressed how urbanization will affect disease transmission and outcome, and therefore mortality and morbidity estimates. In 2003, 39% of Africa’s 850 million people lived in urban settings; by 2030, 54% of Africans are expected to do so. We present the results of a series of entomological, parasitological and behavioural meta-analyses of studies that have investigated the effect of urbanization on malaria in Africa. We describe the effect of urbanization on both the impact of malaria transmission and the concomitant improvements in access to preventative and curative measures. Using these data, we have recalculated estimates of populations at risk of malaria and the resulting mortality. We find there were 1,068,505 malaria deaths in Africa in 2000 — a modest 6.7% reduction over previous iterations. The public-health implications of these findings and revised estimates are discussed. PMID:15608702

  18. From "forest malaria" to "bromeliad malaria": a case-study of scientific controversy and malaria control.

    PubMed

    Gadelha, P

    1994-08-01

    The article analyses the evolution of knowledge and rationale of control of a special case of malaria transmission based on Bromelia-Kerteszia complex. Since bromeliaceae function as a 'host of the carrier' and were previously associated with natural forests, the elucidation of bromeliad malaria historically elicited controversies concerning the imputation of Kertesziae as transmitters as well as over control strategies directed to bromelia eradication (manual removal, herbicides and deforestation), use of insecticides and chemoprophylaxis. Established authority, disciplinary traditions, conceptual premises and contemporary criteria for validating knowledge in the field partly explain the long time gap since Adolpho Lutz announced at the beginning of the century the existence of a new mosquito and breeding site as responsible for a 'forest malaria' epidemic occurring at a high altitude. The article brings attention to how economic, political and institutional determinants played an important role in redefining studies that led both in Trinidad and Brazil to the recognition of the importance of kerteszia transmission, including urban areas, and establishing new approaches to its study, most relevant of all the concurrence of broad ecological research. The article then describes the Brazilian campaign strategies which showed significant short-term results but had to wait four decades to achieve the goal of eradication due to the peculiar characteristics of this pathogenic complex. Finally, it brings attention to the importance of encompassing social values and discourses, in this case, environmental preservation, to understanding historical trends of malaria control programs.

  19. Malaria and urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Donnelly, Martin J; McCall, PJ; Lengeler, Christian; Bates, Imelda; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Barnish, Guy; Konradsen, Flemming; Klinkenberg, Eveline; Townson, Harold; Trape, Jean-Francois; Hastings, Ian M; Mutero, Clifford

    2005-01-01

    There are already 40 cities in Africa with over 1 million inhabitants and the United Nations Environmental Programme estimates that by 2025 over 800 million people will live in urban areas. Recognizing that malaria control can improve the health of the vulnerable and remove a major obstacle to their economic development, the Malaria Knowledge Programme of the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the Systemwide Initiative on Malaria and Agriculture convened a multi-sectoral technical consultation on urban malaria in Pretoria, South Africa from 2nd to 4th December, 2004. The aim of the meeting was to identify strategies for the assessment and control of urban malaria. This commentary reflects the discussions held during the meeting and aims to inform researchers and policy makers of the potential for containing and reversing the emerging problem of urban malaria. PMID:15720713

  20. Programmer's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.

    1981-01-01

    The MMLE3 is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program. The implementation of the program on specific computer systems is discussed. The structure of the program is diagrammed, and the function and operation of individual routines is described. Complete listings and reference maps of the routines are included on microfiche as a supplement. Four test cases are discussed; listings of the input cards and program output for the test cases are included on microfiche as a supplement.

  1. A National Estimate of Performance: Statewide Highway Safety Program Assessment.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (DOT), Washington, DC.

    A nationwide systematic approach to assess the developments and achievements of highway safety activities was conducted to measure program outputs from 1969 through 1974 using key indicators of performance such as ratios and percentages. A sample of 10 states was selected with overall sample of 105 local jurisdictions which would provide estimated…

  2. GEODYN system description, volume 1. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, M. M.; Goad, C. C.; Martin, T. V.

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for the estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters is presented. The areas in which the program is operational are defined. The specific uses of the program are given as: (1) determination of definitive orbits, (2) tracking instrument calibration, (3) satellite operational predictions, and (4) geodetic parameter estimation. The relationship between the various elements in the solution of the orbit and geodetic parameter estimation problem is analyzed. The solution of the problems corresponds to the orbit generation mode in the first case and to the data reduction mode in the second case.

  3. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  4. Malaria Control and Elimination,1 Venezuela, 1800s–1970s

    PubMed Central

    Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-01-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920, malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world’s interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication. Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization. We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  5. Malaria control and elimination, Venezuela, 1800s –1970s.

    PubMed

    Griffing, Sean M; Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-10-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920,malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world's interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication.Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization.We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  6. Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests

    PubMed Central

    Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; de Prado, Paulo Inácio Knegt Lopez; Kraenkel, Roberto André; Coutinho, Renato Mendes; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

    2013-01-01

    Background Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number () estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations

  7. Subsampling program for the estimation of fish impingement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beauchamp, John J.; Kumar, K. D.

    1984-11-01

    Federal regulations require operators of nuclear and coal-fired power-generating stations to estimate the number of fish impinged on intake screens. During winter months, impingement may range into the hundreds of thousands for certain species, making it impossible to count all intake screens completely. We present graphs for determinig the appropriate“optimal” subsample that must be obtained to estimate the total number impinged. Since the number of fish impinged tends to change drastically within a short time period, the subsample size is determined based on the most recent data. This allows for the changing nature of the species-age composition of the impinged fish. These graphs can also be used for subsampling fish catches in an aquatic system when the size of the catch is too large to sample completely.

  8. Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Heterogeneity and Complexity

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cao, Yaming; Chen, Bin; Chen, Xiaoguang; Fan, Qi; Fang, Qiang; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Parker, Daniel; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Su, Xin-zhuan; Yang, Henglin; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Baomin; Xu, Jianwei; Zheng, Bin; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa

    2011-01-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by ‘border malaria’ and ‘forest malaria’ with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. ‘Border malaria’ is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and P. vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is

  9. Preventing the reintroduction of malaria in Mauritius: a programmatic and financial assessment.

    PubMed

    Tatarsky, Allison; Aboobakar, Shahina; Cohen, Justin M; Gopee, Neerunjun; Bheecarry, Ambicadutt; Moonasar, Devanand; Phillips, Allison A; Kahn, James G; Moonen, Bruno; Smith, David L; Sabot, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling.On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year.The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking

  10. Verification of Cost Estimating Procedures for MAPS Computer Program.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-05-01

    has been assuming a lar- data entered are stored in the data base from run-to-run so ger role in planning assistance in water supply recently through...population and water Equation and a numerical approximation to the Moody dis- ue projections can be stored in the program for each service gram. The...water sources were adequate potatal Reonm of Nashville Urbn Study. Waser Supply Nmmssue for future needs. The moat promising surface watRC sou11rces

  11. Targeting male mosquito swarms to control malaria vector density

    PubMed Central

    Sawadogo, Simon Peguedwinde; Niang, Abdoulaye; Bilgo, Etienne; Millogo, Azize; Maïga, Hamidou; Dabire, Roch K.; Tripet, Frederic; Diabaté, Abdoulaye

    2017-01-01

    Malaria control programs are being jeopardized by the spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vector populations. It has been estimated that the spread of resistance could lead to an additional 120000 deaths per year, and interfere with the prospects for sustained control or the feasibility of achieving malaria elimination. Another complication for the development of resistance management strategies is that, in addition to insecticide resistance, mosquito behavior evolves in a manner that diminishes the impact of LLINs and IRS. Mosquitoes may circumvent LLIN and IRS control through preferential feeding and resting outside human houses and/or being active earlier in the evening before people go to sleep. Recent developments in our understanding of mosquito swarming suggest that new tools targeting mosquito swarms can be designed to cut down the high reproductive rate of malaria vectors. Targeting swarms of major malaria vectors may provide an effective control method to counteract behavioral resistance developed by mosquitoes. Here, we evaluated the impact of systematic spraying of swarms of Anopheles gambiae s.l. using a mixed carbamate and pyrethroid aerosol. The impact of this intervention on vector density, female insemination rates and the age structure of males was measured. We showed that the resulting mass killing of swarming males and some mate-seeking females resulted in a dramatic 80% decrease in population size compared to a control population. A significant decrease in female insemination rate and a significant shift in the age structure of the male population towards younger males incapable of mating were observed. This paradigm-shift study therefore demonstrates that targeting primarily males rather than females, can have a drastic impact on mosquito population. PMID:28278212

  12. A computer program for estimating fish population sizes and annual production rates

    SciTech Connect

    Railsback, S.F.; Holcomb, B.D.; Ryon, M.G.

    1989-10-01

    This report documents a program that estimates fish population sizes and annual production rates in small streams from multiple-pass sampling data. A maximum weighted likelihood method is used to estimate population sizes (Carle and Strub, 1978), and a size-frequency method is used to estimate production (Garman and Waters, 1983). The program performs the following steps: (1) reads in the data and performs error checking; (2) where required, uses length-weight regression to fill in missing weights; (3) assigns length classes to the fish; (4) for each date, species, and length class, estimates the population size and its variance; (5) for each date and species, estimates the total population size and its variance; and (6) for each species, estimates the annual production rate and its variance between sampling dates selected by the user. If data from only date are used, only populations are estimated. 9 refs.

  13. Psychosomatics of malaria.

    PubMed

    Houghton, D L

    1980-03-01

    Cerebral malaria with psychosomatic manifestations is one aspect of malaria which may be mistaken for mental illness. However, the psychosomatic aspects of the disease also relate to the biological, psychological and social influences which may determine changes in disease incidence and distribution. The history of the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign and the resurgence of malaria in many countries of the world have influenced attitudes and the professional milieu in which present day malaria control programmes seek to operate. The individual in a malarious area may obstruct malaria control operations by refusing to allow indoor spraying or to take prophylactic medication. Cultural beliefs often described the history of malaria in a community and the way in which the community had come to terms with this disease. Socio-economic development and population movement may disturb this equilibrium and result in a rise in malaria incidence. Behavioural habits may increase malaria risk and the degree to which the community is prepared to become involved in malaria control may influence its experience with the disease.

  14. Microfinance against malaria: impact of Freedom from Hunger's malaria education when delivered by rural banks in Ghana.

    PubMed

    De La Cruz, Natalie; Crookston, Benjamin; Gray, Bobbi; Alder, Steve; Dearden, Kirk

    2009-12-01

    A community randomized pre-test/post-test design was used to compare the knowledge and behaviors of microfinance clients receiving malaria education (n=213) to those receiving diarrhea education (n=223) and to non-client controls (n=268). Comparisons assessed differences at follow-up as well as within-group changes over time. At follow-up, malaria clients had significantly better malaria knowledge than comparison groups: 48.4% of malaria clients were able to identify groups most vulnerable to malaria compared with 39.2% of diarrhea clients (P=0.044) and 37.7% of non-clients (P=0.024). Malaria clients were more likely than diarrhea clients (P=0.024) (P<0.001) and non-clients (P=0.028) (P=0.004) to report that insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) provide the best protection against malaria, and to agree that pregnant women should use ITNs, respectively. Between baseline and follow-up, malaria clients were most likely to: improve in knowledge of malaria complications during pregnancy; to own at least one bed net; and to report at least one child or woman of reproductive age sleeping under a bed net. Malaria clients also experienced the greatest increases in ITN ownership/use (9% vs. 2.9% and 6.7% among diarrhea clients and non-clients). Results indicate that, although significant barriers to malaria control remain, a malaria education program provided by microfinance institutions can effectively contribute to community and national malaria initiatives.

  15. Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in India.

    PubMed

    Anvikar, Anupkumar R; Shah, Naman; Dhariwal, Akshay C; Sonal, Gagan Singh; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Ghosh, Susanta K; Valecha, Neena

    2016-12-28

    Historically, malaria in India was predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax, accounting for 53% of the estimated cases. After the spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the 1990s, the prevalence of the two species remained equivalent at the national level for a decade. By 2014, the proportion of P. vivax has decreased to 34% nationally, but with high regional variation. In 2014, P. vivax accounted for around 380,000 malaria cases in India; almost a sixth of all P. vivax cases reported globally. Plasmodium vivax has remained resistant to control measures, particularly in urban areas. Urban malaria is predominantly caused by P. vivax and is subject to outbreaks, often associated with increased mortality, and triggered by bursts of migration and construction. The epidemiology of P. vivax varies substantially within India, including multiple relapse phenotypes with varying latencies between primary infection and relapse. Moreover, the hypnozoite reservoir maintains transmission potential and enables reestablishment of the parasite in areas in which it was thought eradicated. The burden of malaria in India is complex because of the highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, transmission factors, and the presence of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors. This review of P. vivax malaria in India describes epidemiological trends with particular attention to four states: Gujarat, Karnataka, Haryana, and Odisha.

  16. Epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in India

    PubMed Central

    Anvikar, Anupkumar R.; Shah, Naman; Dhariwal, Akshay C.; Sonal, Gagan Singh; Pradhan, Madan Mohan; Ghosh, Susanta K.; Valecha, Neena

    2016-01-01

    Historically, malaria in India was predominantly caused by Plasmodium vivax, accounting for 53% of the estimated cases. After the spread of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum in the 1990s, the prevalence of the two species remained equivalent at the national level for a decade. By 2014, the proportion of P. vivax has decreased to 34% nationally, but with high regional variation. In 2014, P. vivax accounted for around 380,000 malaria cases in India; almost a sixth of all P. vivax cases reported globally. Plasmodium vivax has remained resistant to control measures, particularly in urban areas. Urban malaria is predominantly caused by P. vivax and is subject to outbreaks, often associated with increased mortality, and triggered by bursts of migration and construction. The epidemiology of P. vivax varies substantially within India, including multiple relapse phenotypes with varying latencies between primary infection and relapse. Moreover, the hypnozoite reservoir maintains transmission potential and enables reestablishment of the parasite in areas in which it was thought eradicated. The burden of malaria in India is complex because of the highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, transmission factors, and the presence of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors. This review of P. vivax malaria in India describes epidemiological trends with particular attention to four states: Gujarat, Karnataka, Haryana, and Odisha. PMID:27708188

  17. Estimating the cost of major ongoing cost plus hardware development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bush, J. C.

    1990-01-01

    Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary cost estimation, a detailed cost estimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

  18. Joko Tingkir program for estimating tsunami potential rapidly

    SciTech Connect

    Madlazim, Hariyono, E.

    2014-09-25

    The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters can provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.

  19. A quantitative approach to recommendations on malaria prophylaxis

    PubMed Central

    Pappaioanou, M.; Lobel, H. O.; Campbell, C. C.

    1988-01-01

    In order to develop recommendations for malaria prophylaxis, a quantitative method is needed to balance the risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections against the toxicity of antimalarial drugs. Using decision analysis, we estimated the expected mortality associated with three alternative regimens of prophylactic drugs for visitors to three areas with different risks of infection with chloroquine-resistant P. falciparum. The model used took into account the risks of malaria and of adverse reactions to antimalarial drugs. Estimates of the parameters used in the analysis were based on observations made on U.S. travellers. Reducing the risk of malaria infection was found to have a far greater impact on lowering the expected mortality than that of increasing the chemoprophylactic efficacy of the drugs used, thereby emphasizing the need for travellers to use anti-mosquito measures in malarious areas. The analytical method described can be used to define optimal malaria prevention strategies. PMID:3048761

  20. An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Quasi-Experimental Net Impact Estimates of CETA Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickinson, Katherine P.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Net impact estimates of Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) programs vary widely and can be explained by the different evaluation methodologies used. Estimates are sensitive to the inclusion of recently unemployed persons in the comparison sample and assumptions about the time of decision to enroll in CETA. (GDC)

  1. Ikonos-derived malaria transmission risk in northwestern Thailand.

    PubMed

    Sithiprasasna, Ratana; Ugsang, Donald M; Honda, Kiyoshi; Jones, James W; Singhasivanon, Pratap

    2005-01-01

    We mapped overall malaria cases and located each field observed major malaria vector breeding habitat using Global Positioning System (GPS) instruments from September 2000 to October 2003 around the three malaria-endemic villages of Ban Khun Huay, Ban Pa Dae, and Ban Tham Seau, Mae Sod district, Tak Province, Thailand. The land-use/land-cover classifications of the three villages and surrounding areas were performed on IKONOS satellite images acquired on 12 November 2001 with a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 m. Stream network was delineated and displayed. Proximity analysis was performed on the locations of the houses with and without malaria cases within a 1.5 km buffer from An. minimus immature mosquito breeding habitats, mainly stream margins. The 1.5 km used in our proximity analysis was arbitrarily estimated based on the An. minimus flight range. A statistical t-test at 5% significance level was performed to evaluate whether houses with malaria cases have higher proximities to streams than houses without malaria cases. The result shows no significant difference between proximity to streams between houses with malaria cases and houses without malaria cases. We suspect that the actual flight range of An. minimus may be greater than 1.5 km. The An. minimus larval habitat deserves more detailed investigation. Further studies on human behavior contrary to that required for adequate malaria control among these three villages are also recommended.

  2. Vaccines Against Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Ouattara, Amed; Laurens, Matthew B.

    2015-01-01

    Despite global efforts to control malaria, the illness remains a significant public health threat. Currently, there is no licensed vaccine against malaria, but an efficacious vaccine would represent an important public health tool for successful malaria elimination. Malaria vaccine development continues to be hindered by a poor understanding of antimalarial immunity, a lack of an immune correlate of protection, and the genetic diversity of malaria parasites. Current vaccine development efforts largely target Plasmodium falciparum parasites in the pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic stages, with some research on transmission-blocking vaccines against asexual stages and vaccines against pregnancy-associated malaria. The leading pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidate is RTS,S, and early results of ongoing Phase 3 testing show overall efficacy of 46% against clinical malaria. The next steps for malaria vaccine development will focus on the design of a product that is efficacious against the highly diverse strains of malaria and the identification of a correlate of protection against disease. PMID:25452593

  3. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  4. Closing the Education Gender Gap: Estimating the Impact of Girls' Scholarship Program in the Gambia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gajigo, Ousman

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of a school fee elimination program for female secondary students in The Gambia to reduce gender disparity in education. To assess the impact of the program, two nationally representative household surveys were used (1998 and 2002/2003). By 2002/2003, about half of the districts in the country had benefited from the…

  5. A model for estimating the cost impact of schedule perturbations on aerospace research and development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bishop, D. F.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of determining the cost impact attributable to perturbations in an aerospace R and D program schedule is discussed in terms of the diminishing availability of funds. The methodology from which a model is presented for updating R and D cost estimates as a function of perturbations in program time is presented.

  6. Psychometrics for the Cost Conscious: Using Discriminant Analysis to Refine Estimates of Program Cost.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coffin, Raymond J.

    This presentation uses data from a long-term juvenile diversion counseling program to illustrate a sample method of estimating program cost. Several problems in using average cost figures are first presented. Then a method is described in which discriminant analysis can be used to refine cost comparisons. This makes it possible to produce…

  7. GEODYN operations description, volume 3. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, T. V.; Mullins, N. E.

    1972-01-01

    The operating and set-up procedures for the multi-satellite, multi-arc GEODYN- Orbit Determination program are described. All system output is analyzed. The GEODYN Program is the nucleus of the entire GEODYN system. It is a definitive orbit and geodetic parameter estimation program capable of simultaneously processing observations from multiple arcs of multiple satellites. GEODYN has two modes of operation: (1) the data reduction mode and (2) the orbit generation mode.

  8. IMAGES: A digital computer program for interactive modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, R. L.

    1984-01-01

    An interactive digital computer program for modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis was written. Both mathematical and operation considerations are described; however, the mathematical presentation is limited to those concepts essential to the operational capability of the program. The program is capable of both modal and spectral synthesis of multi-input control systems. It is user friendly, has scratchpad capability and dynamic memory, and can be used to design either state or output feedback systems.

  9. Programmable calculator program for linear somatic cell scores to estimate mastitis yield losses.

    PubMed

    Kirk, J H

    1984-02-01

    A programmable calculator program calculates loss of milk yield in dairy cows based on linear somatic cell count scores. The program displays the distribution of the herd by lactation number and linear score for present and optimal goal situations. Loss of yield is in pounds and dollars by cow and herd. The program estimates optimal milk production and numbers of fewer cows at the goal for mastitis infection.

  10. A cost-effectiveness analysis of artemether lumefantrine for treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Zambia

    PubMed Central

    Chanda, Pascalina; Masiye, Felix; Chitah, Bona M; Sipilanyambe, Naawa; Hawela, Moonga; Banda, Patrick; Okorosobo, Tuoyo

    2007-01-01

    Background Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity, mortality and non-fatal disability in Zambia, especially among children, pregnant women and the poor. Data gathered by the National Malaria Control Centre has shown that recently observed widespread treatment failure of SP and chloroquine precipitated a surge in malaria-related morbidity and mortality. As a result, the Government has recently replaced chloroquine and SP with combination therapy as first-line treatment for malaria. Despite the acclaimed therapeutic advantages of ACTs over monotherapies with SP and CQ, the cost of ACTs is much greater, raising concerns about affordability in many poor countries such as Zambia. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness analysis of artemether-lumefantrine, a version of ACTs adopted in Zambia in mid 2004. Methods Using data gathered from patients presenting at public health facilities with suspected malaria, the costs and effects of using ACTs versus SP as first-line treatment for malaria were estimated. The study was conducted in six district sites. Treatment success and reduction in demand for second line treatment constituted the main effectiveness outcomes. The study gathered data on the efficacy of, and compliance to, AL and SP treatment from a random sample of patients. Costs are based on estimated drug, labour, operational and capital inputs. Drug costs were based on dosages and unit prices provided by the Ministry of Health and the manufacturer (Norvatis). Findings The results suggest that AL produces successful treatment at less cost than SP, implying that AL is more cost-effective. While it is acknowledged that implementing national ACT program will require considerable resources, the study demonstrates that the health gains (treatment success) from every dollar spent are significantly greater if AL is used rather than SP. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is estimated to be US$4.10. When the costs of second line treatment are considered the

  11. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-12

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  12. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  13. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  14. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peffley, Al F.

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

  15. A Hybrid Method to Estimate Specific Differential Phase and Rainfall With Linear Programming and Physics Constraints

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Hao; Zhang, Guifu; Zhao, Kun; Giangrande, Scott E.

    2016-10-20

    A hybrid method of combining linear programming (LP) and physical constraints is developed to estimate specific differential phase (KDP) and to improve rain estimation. Moreover, the hybrid KDP estimator and the existing estimators of LP, least squares fitting, and a self-consistent relation of polarimetric radar variables are evaluated and compared using simulated data. Our simulation results indicate the new estimator's superiority, particularly in regions where backscattering phase (δhv) dominates. Further, a quantitative comparison between auto-weather-station rain-gauge observations and KDP-based radar rain estimates for a Meiyu event also demonstrate the superiority of the hybrid KDP estimator over existing methods.

  16. Malaria Incidence Rates from Time Series of 2-Wave Panel Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Chiyaka, Christinah; Singer, Burton H.

    2016-01-01

    Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data—specifically, 2-wave panel data—was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological

  17. Effectiveness of Implementation of Electronic Malaria Information System as the National Malaria Surveillance System in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    system implemented has achieved its objective. The results of the study suggested that the eMIS helps improve the quality of Thailand’s malaria surveillance system. As the national malaria surveillance system, the eMIS’s functionalities have provided the malaria staff working at the point of care with close-to-real-time case management data quality, covering case detection, case investigation, drug compliance, and follow-up visits. Such features has led to an improvement in the quality of the malaria control program; the government officials now have quicker access to both individual and aggregated data to promptly react to possible outbreak. The eMIS thus plays one of the key roles in moving toward the national goal of malaria elimination by the next decade. PMID:27227156

  18. Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

    PubMed

    Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

    2013-12-01

    Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

  19. New accuracy estimators for genomic selection with application in a cassava (Manihot esculenta) breeding program.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, C F; Resende, M D V; Silva, F F; Viana, J M S; Valente, M S F; Resende, M F R; Oliveira, E J

    2016-10-05

    Genomic selection is the main force driving applied breeding programs and accuracy is the main measure for evaluating its efficiency. The traditional estimator (TE) of experimental accuracy is not fully adequate. This study proposes and evaluates the performance and efficiency of two new accuracy estimators, called regularized estimator (RE) and hybrid estimator (HE), which were applied to a practical cassava breeding program and also to simulated data. The simulation study considered two individual narrow sense heritability levels and two genetic architectures for traits. TE, RE, and HE were compared under four validation procedures: without validation (WV), independent validation, ten-fold validation through jacknife allowing different markers, and with the same markers selected in each cycle. RE presented accuracies closer to the parametric ones and less biased and more precise ones than TE. HE proved to be very effective in the WV procedure. The estimators were applied to five traits evaluated in a cassava experiment, including 358 clones genotyped for 390 SNPs. Accuracies ranged from 0.67 to 1.12 with TE and from 0.22 to 0.51 with RE. These results indicated that TE overestimated the accuracy and led to one accuracy estimate (1.12) higher than one, which is outside of the parameter space. Use of RE turned the accuracy into the parameter space. Cassava breeding programs can be more realistically implemented using the new estimators proposed in this study, providing less risky practical inferences.

  20. Malaria Eradication and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka†

    PubMed Central

    Lucas, Adrienne M.

    2013-01-01

    Mid-twentieth century malaria eradication campaigns largely eliminated malaria from Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Using these interventions as quasi-experiments, I estimate malaria’s effect on lifetime female educational attainment through the combination of pre-existing geographic variation in malarial intensity and cohort exposure based on the timing of the national anti-malaria campaigns. The estimates from Sri Lanka and Paraguay are similar and indicate that malaria eradication increased years of educational attainment and literacy. The similarity of the estimates across the countries reinforces our confidence in the validity of the identification strategy. PMID:23946866

  1. Congenital Malaria in Calabar, Nigeria: The Molecular Perspective

    PubMed Central

    Oduwole, Olabisi A.; Ejezie, G. C.; Odey, Friday A.; Oringanje, Chioma M.; Nwakanma, Davis; Bello, Segun; Oriero, Eniyou; Okebe, Joseph; Alaribe, Anyawu A.; Etuk, Saturday; Meremikwu, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been shown to be more sensitive in detecting low-level parasitemia than conventional blood film microscopy. We estimated the prevalence of congenital malaria using nested PCR amplification of the small subunit 18S RNA gene to detect low-level parasitemia and identify Plasmodium species in 204 mother–neonate pairs. Cord-blood parasitemia was detected in four babies by PCR, giving a prevalence of 2.0%. The newborns of primidgravidae were more susceptible to congenital malaria than those of multigravidae (P < 0.0001). There was a strong correlation between placental malaria and congenital malaria (odds ratio = 10.1, 95% confidence interval = 1.3–76.1, P = 0.0487). We conclude that the prevalence of congenital malaria in Calabar detected by PCR is lower than has been reported in this environment through microscopy. PMID:21363974

  2. A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Shu; Zhou, Quan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2016-01-01

    Direction of arrival (DOA) estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA) is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS), and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP). We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion. PMID:27999397

  3. A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation.

    PubMed

    Cai, Shu; Zhou, Quan; Zhu, Hongbo

    2016-12-20

    Direction of arrival (DOA) estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA) is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML) criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS), and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP). We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion.

  4. Using a geographical information system to plan a malaria control programme in South Africa.

    PubMed Central

    Booman, M.; Durrheim, D. N.; La Grange, K.; Martin, C.; Mabuza, A. M.; Zitha, A.; Mbokazi, F. M.; Fraser, C.; Sharp, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Sustainable control of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is jeopardized by dwindling public health resources resulting from competing health priorities that include an overwhelming acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. In Mpumalanga province, South Africa, rational planning has historically been hampered by a case surveillance system for malaria that only provided estimates of risk at the magisterial district level (a subdivision of a province). METHODS: To better map control programme activities to their geographical location, the malaria notification system was overhauled and a geographical information system implemented. The introduction of a simplified notification form used only for malaria and a carefully monitored notification system provided the good quality data necessary to support an effective geographical information system. RESULTS: The geographical information system displays data on malaria cases at a village or town level and has proved valuable in stratifying malaria risk within those magisterial districts at highest risk, Barberton and Nkomazi. The conspicuous west-to-east gradient, in which the risk rises sharply towards the Mozambican border (relative risk = 4.12, 95% confidence interval = 3.88-4.46 when the malaria risk within 5 km of the border was compared with the remaining areas in these two districts), allowed development of a targeted approach to control. DISCUSSION: The geographical information system for malaria was enormously valuable in enabling malaria risk at town and village level to be shown. Matching malaria control measures to specific strata of endemic malaria has provided the opportunity for more efficient malaria control in Mpumalanga province. PMID:11196490

  5. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk.

    PubMed

    Guerra, C A; Snow, R W; Hay, S I

    2006-04-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South-east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South-east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted.

  6. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    PubMed Central

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  7. Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Nigro, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

  8. Malaria vaccine offers hope. International / Africa.

    PubMed

    1995-04-03

    The World Health Organization (WHO) may soon sign an agreement with the Colombian government to build a plant in Colombia for the mass production of the malaria vaccine SPf66. SPf66 consists of a combination of synthetic peptides. It will eventually be available in Africa, where 90% of all recorded malaria cases occur each year. 1 million of the 1.5-3 million malaria-related deaths each year also occur in Africa. Many of these deaths take place in children. The indirect costs of malaria in Africa is expected to increase from $800 million to $1.8 billion between 1987 and the end of 1995. Based on findings from the various clinical trials in Colombia, Thailand, The Gambia, and Tanzania, WHO's director of Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) claims that, if SPf66 can reduce the malaria incidence rate by 50% and thereby also the malaria-related death rate, the lives of 500,000 children in Africa would be spared. TDR will meet in mid-1996 to sort through all the SPf66 findings and then develop a policy for further development or production and use of SPf66. The price of each SPf66 vaccination should be around $5, comparable with the higher range of costs of other vaccines provided by WHO's Expanded Program of Immunization and UNICEF. At the 1992 WHO summit in Amsterdam, the president of the Congo called for the international community to join forces to eliminate malaria. When it was first tested on humans, in Colombia, the protection rate of SPf66 ranged from 22% to 77%, with the best results among the young and the very old. It has not caused any harmful side effects.

  9. Malaria transmission modelling: a network perspective.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jiming; Yang, Bo; Cheung, William K; Yang, Guojing

    2012-11-01

    Malaria transmission can be affected by multiple or even hidden factors, making it difficult to timely and accurately predict the impact of elimination and eradication programs that have been undertaken and the potential resurgence and spread that may continue to emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an attempt to identify them as timely as possible and thus to enable policy makers to modify and implement strategies for further preventing the transmission. Most of the surveillance data will be of temporal and spatial nature. From an interdisciplinary point of view, it would be interesting to ask the following important as well as challenging question: Based on the available surveillance data in temporal and spatial forms, how can we build a more effective surveillance mechanism for monitoring and early detecting the relative prevalence and transmission patterns of malaria? What we can note from the existing clustering-based surveillance software systems is that they do not infer the underlying transmission networks of malaria. However, such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how malaria transmits from one place to another. They can also in turn allow public health policy makers and researchers to uncover the hidden and interacting factors such as environment, genetics and ecology and to discover/predict malaria transmission patterns/trends. The network perspective further extends the present approaches to modelling malaria transmission based on a set of chosen factors. In this article, we survey the related work on transmission network inference, discuss how such an approach can be utilized in developing an effective computational means for inferring malaria transmission networks based on partial surveillance data, and what methodological steps and issues may be involved in its formulation and validation.

  10. Collecting baseline information for national morbidity alleviation programs: different methods to estimate lymphatic filariasis morbidity prevalence.

    PubMed

    Mathieu, Els; Amann, Josef; Eigege, Abel; Richards, Frank; Sodahlon, Yao

    2008-01-01

    The lymphatic filariasis elimination program aims not only to stop transmission, but also to alleviate morbidity. Although geographically limited morbidity projects exist, few have been implemented nationally. For advocacy and planning, the program coordinators need prevalence estimates that are currently rarely available. This article compares several approaches to estimate morbidity prevalence: (1) data routinely collected during mapping or sentinel site activities; (2) data collected during drug coverage surveys; and (3) alternative surveys. Data were collected in Plateau and Nasarawa States in Nigeria and in 6 districts in Togo. In both settings, we found that questionnaires seem to underestimate the morbidity prevalence compared with existing information collected through clinical examination. We suggest that program managers use the latter for advocacy and planning, but if not available, questionnaires to estimate morbidity prevalence can be added to existing surveys. Even though such data will most likely underestimate the real burden of disease, they can be useful in resource-limited settings.

  11. Barriers to Malaria Control among Marginalized Tribal Communities: A Qualitative Study

    PubMed Central

    Sundararajan, Radhika; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Gokhale, Charuta; Greenough, P. Gregg; Bang, Abhay

    2013-01-01

    healers partners in malaria control; promoting within-village rapid diagnosis and treatment; increasing ITN distribution and promoting their use as potential strategies to decrease infection rates in these communities. These insights may be used to shape malaria control programs among marginalized populations. PMID:24376507

  12. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E; Gutierrez, Juan B; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2012-03-01

    Latin America contributes 1-1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination.

  13. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O.; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E.; Gutierrez, Juan B.; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C.; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2011-01-01

    Latin America contributes 1 to 1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. PMID:21781953

  14. Kinetic parameters estimation in an anaerobic digestion process using successive quadratic programming.

    PubMed

    Aceves-Lara, C A; Aguilar-Garnica, E; Alcaraz-González, V; González-Reynoso, O; Steyer, J P; Dominguez-Beltran, J L; González-Alvarez, V

    2005-01-01

    In this work, an optimization method is implemented in an anaerobic digestion model to estimate its kinetic parameters and yield coefficients. This method combines the use of advanced state estimation schemes and powerful nonlinear programming techniques to yield fast and accurate estimates of the aforementioned parameters. In this method, we first implement an asymptotic observer to provide estimates of the non-measured variables (such as biomass concentration) and good guesses for the initial conditions of the parameter estimation algorithm. These results are then used by the successive quadratic programming (SQP) technique to calculate the kinetic parameters and yield coefficients of the anaerobic digestion process. The model, provided with the estimated parameters, is tested with experimental data from a pilot-scale fixed bed reactor treating raw industrial wine distillery wastewater. It is shown that SQP reaches a fast and accurate estimation of the kinetic parameters despite highly noise corrupted experimental data and time varying inputs variables. A statistical analysis is also performed to validate the combined estimation method. Finally, a comparison between the proposed method and the traditional Marquardt technique shows that both yield similar results; however, the calculation time of the traditional technique is considerable higher than that of the proposed method.

  15. Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions. PMID:20015392

  16. Towards comprehensive malaria planning: the effect of government capacity, health policy, and land use variables on malaria incidence in India.

    PubMed

    Boussalis, Constantine; Nelson, Hal T; Swaminathan, Siddharth

    2012-10-01

    We present what we believe is the first empirical research that accounts for subnational government capacity in estimating malaria incidence. After controlling for relevant extrinsic factors, we find evidence of a negative effect of state government capacity on reported malaria cases in Indian states over the period 1993-2002. Government capacity is more successful in predicting malaria incidence than potentially more direct indicators such as state public health expenditures and economic development levels. We find that high government capacity can moderate the deleterious health effects of malaria in rice producing regions. Our research also suggests that government capacity may have exacerbated the effectiveness of the World Bank Malaria Control Project in India over the period studied. We conclude by proposing the integration of government capacity measures into existing planning efforts, including vulnerability mapping tools and disease surveillance efforts.

  17. Smolt Monitoring Program, Part I, Estimation of Survival, 1985 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Fish Passage Center

    1986-02-01

    The annual Smolt Monitoring Program is the result of implementation of Section 304(d)(2) of the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program. Survival was monitored for specific marked groups of steelhead and spring chinook. Survival through the mid-Columbia from Winthrop Hatchery and the Methow River to below Priest Rapids Dam was estimated. Estimation of survival of marked groups of steelhead from Little Goose Dam to below Ice Harbor Dam was attempted. Serious problems were evident in the Snake River survival data. A release strategy which avoids holding of control groups was tested with satisfactory results.

  18. Population genetics of malaria resistance in humans

    PubMed Central

    Hedrick, P W

    2011-01-01

    The high mortality and widespread impact of malaria have resulted in this disease being the strongest evolutionary selective force in recent human history, and genes that confer resistance to malaria provide some of the best-known case studies of strong positive selection in modern humans. I begin by reviewing JBS Haldane's initial contribution to the potential of malaria genetic resistance in humans. Further, I discuss the population genetics aspects of many of the variants, including globin, G6PD deficiency, Duffy, ovalocytosis, ABO and human leukocyte antigen variants. Many of the variants conferring resistance to malaria are ‘loss-of-function' mutants and appear to be recent polymorphisms from the last 5000–10 000 years or less. I discuss estimation of selection coefficients from case–control data and make predictions about the change for S, C and G6PD-deficiency variants. In addition, I consider the predicted joint changes when the two β-globin alleles S and C are both variable in the same population and when there is a variation for α-thalassemia and S, two unlinked, but epistatic variants. As more becomes known about genes conferring genetic resistance to malaria in humans, population genetics approaches can contribute both to investigating past selection and predicting the consequences in future generations for these variants. PMID:21427751

  19. Informing Estimates of Program Effects for Studies of Mathematics Professional Development Using Teacher Content Knowledge Outcomes.

    PubMed

    Phelps, Geoffrey; Kelcey, Benjamin; Jones, Nathan; Liu, Shuangshuang

    2016-10-03

    Mathematics professional development is widely offered, typically with the goal of improving teachers' content knowledge, the quality of teaching, and ultimately students' achievement. Recently, new assessments focused on mathematical knowledge for teaching (MKT) have been developed to assist in the evaluation and improvement of mathematics professional development. This study presents empirical estimates of average program change in MKT and its variation with the goal of supporting the design of experimental trials that are adequately powered to detect a specified program effect. The study drew on a large database representing five different assessments of MKT and collectively 326 professional development programs and 9,365 teachers. Results from cross-classified hierarchical growth models found that standardized average change estimates across the five assessments ranged from a low of 0.16 standard deviations (SDs) to a high of 0.26 SDs. Power analyses using the estimated pre- and posttest change estimates indicated that hundreds of teachers are needed to detect changes in knowledge at the lower end of the distribution. Even studies powered to detect effects at the higher end of the distribution will require substantial resources to conduct rigorous experimental trials. Empirical benchmarks that describe average program change and its variation provide a useful preliminary resource for interpreting the relative magnitude of effect sizes associated with professional development programs and for designing adequately powered trials.

  20. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  1. Sound Cost Estimating: A Pre-Requisite to Ascertaining Affordability of DoD Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-01

    predictions, especially about the future,” has been variously attributed to Niels Bohr , Mark Twain and, of course, Yogi Berra. In his best-selling...critical for program success: con-ducting a sound program life cycle cost estimate and establishing a program’s budget. These two processes are...supposedly “on-track” is one strategy to provide early warning about problems before they become un- manageable. A sound cost esti- mate is a neces- sary

  2. Computer programs for estimating aircraft takeoff performance in three dimensional space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, J. V.

    1974-01-01

    A set of computer programs has been developed to estimate the takeoff and initial climb-out maneuver of a given aircraft in three-dimensional space. The program is applicable to conventional, vectored lift and power-lift concept aircraft. The aircraft is treated as a point mass flying over a flat earth with no side slip, and the rotational dynamics have been neglected. The required input is described and a sample case presented.

  3. [Malaria in Algerian Sahara].

    PubMed

    Hammadi, D; Boubidi, S C; Chaib, S E; Saber, A; Khechache, Y; Gasmi, M; Harrat, Z

    2009-08-01

    Thanks to the malaria eradication campaign launched in Algeria in 1968, the number of malaria cases fell down significantly from 95,424 cases in 1960 to 30 cases in 1978. At that time the northern part of the country was declared free of Plasmodium falciparum. Only few cases belonging to P. vivax persisted in residual foci in the middle part of the country. In the beginning of the eighties, the south of the country was marked by an increase of imported malaria cases. The resurgence of the disease in the oases coincided with the opening of the Trans-Saharan road and the booming trade with the neighbouring southern countries. Several authors insisted on the risk of introduction of malaria or its exotic potential vectors in Algeria via this new road. Now, the totality of malaria autochthonous cases in Algeria are located in the south of the country where 300 cases were declared during the period (1980-2007). The recent outbreak recorded in 2007 at the borders with Mall and the introduction of Anopheles gambiae into the Algerian territory show the vulnerability of this area to malaria which is probably emphasized by the local environmental changes. The authors assess the evolution of malaria in the Sahara region and draw up the distribution of the anopheles in this area.

  4. Tackling Imported Malaria: An Elimination Endgame

    PubMed Central

    Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Roberts, Kathryn W.; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Ohrt, Colin; Gosling, Roly D.

    2015-01-01

    As countries move toward malaria elimination, imported infections become increasingly significant as they often represent the majority of cases, can sustain transmission, cause resurgences, and lead to mortality. Here we review and critique current methods to prevent malaria importation in countries pursuing elimination and explore methods applied in other transmission settings and to other diseases that could be transferred to support malaria elimination. To improve intervention targeting we need a better understanding of the characteristics of populations importing infections and their patterns of migration, improved methods to reliably classify infections as imported or acquired locally, and ensure early and accurate diagnosis. The potential for onward transmission in the most receptive and vulnerable locations can be predicted through high-resolution risk mapping that can help malaria elimination or prevention of reintroduction programs target resources. Cross border and regional initiatives can be highly effective when based on an understanding of human and parasite movement. Ultimately, determining the optimal combinations of approaches to address malaria importation will require an evaluation of their impact, cost effectiveness, and operational feasibility. PMID:26013369

  5. EMIRA: Ecologic Malaria Reduction for Africa – innovative tools for integrated malaria control

    PubMed Central

    Dambach, Peter; Traoré, Issouf; Becker, Norbert; Kaiser, Achim; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria control is based on early treatment of cases and on vector control. The current measures for malaria vector control in Africa are mainly based on long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and to a much smaller extent on indoor residual spraying (IRS). A third pillar in the fight against the malaria vector, larval source management (LSM), has virtually not been used in Africa since the ban of DDT in the 1960s. Within the light of recent WHO recommendations for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) use against malaria and other vector species, larval source management could see a revival in the upcoming years. In this project we analyze the ecologic and health impacts as well as the cost effectiveness of larval source management under different larviciding scenarios in a health district in Burkina Faso. Methods The project is designed as prospective intervention study with duration of three years (2013–2015). Its spatial scale includes three arms of interventions and control, comprising a total of 127 villages and the district capital Nouna in the extended HDSS (Health Demographic Surveillance System) of the Kossi province. Baseline data on mosquito abundance, parasitemia in U5 children, and malaria related morbidity and mortality are gathered over the project duration. Besides the outcome on ecologic and health parameters, the economic costs are seized and valued against the achieved health benefits. Conclusions Risk map based, guided larvicide application might be a possibility to further decrease economic cost of LSM and facilitate its faster incorporation to integrated malaria control programs. Given the limited resources in many malaria endemic countries, it is of utmost importance to relate the costs of novel strategies for malaria prevention to their effect on the burden of the disease. Occurring costs and the impact on the health situation will be made comparable to other, existing intervention strategies, allowing stakeholders and

  6. Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

    Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

  7. Malaria in the Era of Food Fortification With Folic Acid.

    PubMed

    Nzila, Alexis; Okombo, John; Hyde, John

    2016-06-01

    Food fortified with folic acid has been available for consumption in North America for over a decade. This strategy has led to an increase in folate levels in the general population and, more importantly, a significant decrease in the incidence of neural tube defects. However, this increase in folate intake has been associated with a greater risk of cancer disease. Many African countries are now embracing this concept; however, because folate promotes malaria parasite division, as it does in cancer cells, there is a possibility of malaria exacerbation if folate intake is increased. A precedent for such a concern is the now compelling evidence showing that an increase in iron intake can lead to a higher malaria risk; as a result, mass administration of iron in malaria-endemic areas is not recommended. In this article, we review work on the effect of folate on malaria parasites. Although this topic has received little research attention, the available data suggest that the increase in folate concentration could be associated with an increase in malaria infection. Thus, the introduction of food fortification with folic acid in malaria-endemic areas should be attended by precautionary programs to monitor the risk of malaria.

  8. Malaria distribution, prevalence, drug resistance and control in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Hay, Simon I; Baird, J Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d'état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs.

  9. Malaria Distribution, Prevalence, Drug Resistance and Control in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Elyazar, Iqbal R.F.; Hay, Simon I.; Baird, J. Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d’état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs. PMID:21295677

  10. [Current data on malaria in metropolitan France].

    PubMed

    Danis, M; Legros, F; Thellier, M; Caumes, E

    2002-01-01

    Epidemiological data from the French National Reference Center for Imported Diseases showed that the estimated number of cases of imported malaria in France increased from 5,940 in 1998 to 7,127 in 1999 and 8,056 in 2000. This three-year progression ended in 2001 when the number of estimated cases fell back to 7,223. It was due mainly to the concomitant increase in the number of people traveling to endemic zones especially in Africa. In 2000 the median age of patients with imported malaria in France was 29.5 years and the sex ratio was 1.78. Sixty-three percent of cases involved people of African origin and 37% involved "Westerners". The countries in which contamination occurred were located in tropical Africa (95%), Asia (2.2%), and Latin America (2.7%). During the three year period from 1998 to 2000, there were a total of 13 accidental autochtonous cases of malaria involving patients with no history of travel to tropical areas. The distribution of Plasmodium species involved in imported malaria in France was stable with 83% of cases involving Plasmodium falciparum, 6% involving Plasmodium vivax, 6.5% involving Plasmodium ovale and 1.3% involving Plasmodium malariae. Attacks were clinically uncomplicated in 90 to 95% of cases and severe in 2 to 5% including fatal Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 0.49 to 0.37% of cases. Less than 10% of the 45% of patients claiming use of prophylaxis complied properly. Analysis of the drugs used for curative treatment in 2000 showed an increase in the use of quinine and mefloquine and decrease in the use of halofantrine. The main objectives remain reduction of mortality and improvement of prevention.

  11. Malaria and Vascular Endothelium

    PubMed Central

    de Alencar, Aristóteles Comte; de Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Okoshi, Katashi; Okoshi, Marina Politi

    2014-01-01

    Involvement of the cardiovascular system in patients with infectious and parasitic diseases can result from both intrinsic mechanisms of the disease and drug intervention. Malaria is an example, considering that the endothelial injury by Plasmodium-infected erythrocytes can cause circulatory disorders. This is a literature review aimed at discussing the relationship between malaria and endothelial impairment, especially its effects on the cardiovascular system. We discuss the implications of endothelial aggression and the interdisciplinarity that should guide the malaria patient care, whose acute infection can contribute to precipitate or aggravate a preexisting heart disease. PMID:25014058

  12. The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

    2002-01-01

    For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

  13. A SAS/IML program using the Kalman filter for estimating state space models.

    PubMed

    Gu, Fei; Yung, Yiu-Fai

    2013-03-01

    To help disseminate the knowledge and software implementation of a state space model (SSM), this article provides a SAS/IML (SAS Institute, 2010) program for estimating the parameters of general linear Gaussian SSMs using the Kalman filter algorithm. In order to use this program, the user should have SAS installed on a computer and have a valid license for SAS/IML. Since the code is completely open, it is expected that this program can be used not only by applied researchers, but also by quantitative methodologists who are interested in improving their methods and promoting SSM as a research instrument.

  14. Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 3: Research and program management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The research and program management (R&PM) appropriation provides the salaries, other personnel and related costs, and travel support for NASA's civil service workforce. This FY 1994 budget funds costs associated with 23,623 full-time equivalent (FTE) work years. Budget estimates are provided for all NASA centers by categories such as space station and new technology investments, space flight programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences, advanced concepts and technology, center management and operations support, launch services, mission to planet earth, tracking and data programs, aeronautical research and technology, and safety, reliability, and quality assurance.

  15. Inaugural meeting of the malaria policy advisory committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met for the first time from 31 January to 2 February 2012 in Geneva, Switzerland. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting, as part of the newly launched Malaria Journal thematic series “WHO Malaria Policy Advisory Committee: Reports and Recommendations”. Summaries are provided, referencing the relevant background documents, for the meeting sessions on global malaria control, drug resistance and containment, rapid diagnostic test procurement criteria, larviciding, classification of countries for elimination, estimating malaria cases and deaths, and seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that will arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization member states by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:22545931

  16. Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Castro, Marcia C.

    2013-01-01

    Background The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Methods and Findings Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004–2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66–0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). Conclusion A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam. PMID:23977099

  17. Cost of malaria control in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed Central

    Konradsen, F.; Steele, P.; Perera, D.; van der Hoek, W.; Amerasinghe, P. H.; Amerasinghe, F. P.

    1999-01-01

    The study provides estimates of the cost of various malaria control measures in an area of North-Central Province of Sri Lanka where the disease is endemic. We assumed that each measure was equally effective. In these terms, impregnating privately purchased bednets with insecticide was estimated to cost Rs 48 (US(40.87) per individual protected per year, less than half the cost of spraying houses with residual insecticides. Larviciding of vector breeding sites and especially the elimination of breeding habitats by flushing streams through seasonal release of water from upstream reservoirs was estimated to be cheaper than other preventive measures (Rs 27 (US$ 0.49) and Rs 13 (US$ 0.24) per individual protected, respectively). Inclusion of both operational and capital costs of treatment indicates that the most cost-effective intervention for the government was a centrally located hospital with a relatively large catchment area (Rs 71 (US$ 1.29) per malaria case treated). Mobile clinics (Rs 153 (US$ 2.78) per malaria case treated) and a village treatment centre (Rs 112 (US$ 2.04)) per malaria case treated) were more expensive options for the government, but were considerably cheaper for households than the traditional hospital facilities. This information can guide health planners and government decision-makers in choosing the most appropriate combination of curative and preventive measures to control malaria. However, the option that is cheapest for the government may not be so for the householders, and further studies are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the various preventive measures. PMID:10327708

  18. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  19. Parameter estimation supplement to the Mission Analysis Evaluation and Space Trajectory Operations program (MAESTRO)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bjorkman, W. S.; Uphoff, C. W.

    1973-01-01

    This Parameter Estimation Supplement describes the PEST computer program and gives instructions for its use in determination of lunar gravitation field coefficients. PEST was developed for use in the RAE-B lunar orbiting mission as a means of lunar field recovery. The observations processed by PEST are short-arc osculating orbital elements. These observations are the end product of an orbit determination process obtained with another program. PEST's end product it a set of harmonic coefficients to be used in long-term prediction of the lunar orbit. PEST employs some novel techniques in its estimation process, notably a square batch estimator and linear variational equations in the orbital elements (both osculating and mean) for measurement sensitivities. The program's capabilities are described, and operating instructions and input/output examples are given. PEST utilizes MAESTRO routines for its trajectory propagation. PEST's program structure and subroutines which are not common to MAESTRO are described. Some of the theoretical background information for the estimation process, and a derivation of linear variational equations for the Method 7 elements are included.

  20. TH-SCORE: A Program for Obtaining Ability Estimates under Different Psychometric Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrando, Pere J.; Lorenzo, Urbano

    1998-01-01

    A program for obtaining ability estimates and their standard errors under a variety of psychometric models is documented. The general models considered are (1) classical test theory; (2) item factor analysis for continuous censored responses; and (3) unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory graded response models. (SLD)

  1. Cost-effectiveness analysis of malaria chemoprophylaxis for travellers to West-Africa

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The importation of malaria to non-endemic countries remains a major cause of travel-related morbidity and a leading cause of travel-related hospitalizations. Currently they are three priority medications for malaria prophylaxis to West Africa: mefloquine, atovaquone/proguanil and doxycycline. We investigate the cost effectiveness of a partial reimbursement of the cheapest effective malaria chemoprophylaxis (mefloquine) for travellers to high risk areas of malaria transmission compared with the current situation of no reimbursement. Methods This study is a cost-effectiveness analysis based on malaria cases imported from West Africa to Switzerland from the perspective of the Swiss health system. We used a decision tree model and made a literature research on the components of travel related malaria. The main outcome measure was the cost effectiveness of malaria chemoprophylaxis reimbursement based on malaria and deaths averted. Results Using a program where travellers would be reimbursed for 80% of the cost of the cheapest malaria chemoprophylaxis is dominant (i.e. cost saving and more effective than the current situation) using the assumption that currently 68.7% of travellers to West Africa use malaria chemoprophylaxis. If the current usage of malaria chemoprophylaxis would be higher, 82.4%, the incremental cost per malaria case averted is € 2'302. The incremental cost of malaria death averted is € 191'833. The most important factors influencing the model were: the proportion of travellers using malaria chemoprophylaxis, the probability of contracting malaria without malaria chemoprophylaxis, the cost of the mefloquine regimen, the decrease in the number of travellers without malaria chemoprophylaxis in the reimbursement strategy. Conclusions This study suggests that a reimbursement of 80% of the cost of the cheapest effective malaria chemoprophylaxis (mefloquine) for travellers from Switzerland to West Africa is highly effective in terms of malaria

  2. Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives.

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Sukhan; Sleigh, Adrian C.; Liu, Xi-Li

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assist with strategic planning for the eradication of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported. METHODS: We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme: suspected malaria case management, vector surveillance, and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patients were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors in six townships or former communes (population 247 762), and studied all 12 325 reported cases of suspected malaria in their catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. FINDINGS: The average annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%; vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for patients seeking treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an average of US$ 0.78. CONCLUSION: Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels of US$ 0.03 per person at risk. PMID:12219157

  3. A Structural Weight Estimation Program (SWEEP) for Aircraft. Volume 11 - Flexible Airloads Stand-Alone Program

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1974-06-01

    load due to vertical acceleration. 35 Wing Structural Influence Coefficients For the static aeroelastic analysis , the exposed semispan of the wing...SIC^ (45) _^_ For the static aeroelastic analysis , a matrix of streamwise slopes, SIC, is required. This matrix is formed by premuldplying the SIC...and Centers of Pressure 26 3 Wing Diagram for Flexible Load Analysis 27 4 Calling-Called Matrix for Flexible Airloads Stand-Alone Program 59 5

  4. Epidemiological risk stratification of malaria in the Americas.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Salgado, C

    1992-01-01

    During the last years, malaria had a significant increase in Latin America, emerging again as one critical health problem in the Region of the Americas. More than 1.04 million new cases were reported in 1990. This resurgence of malaria needed a comprehensive strategy for its prevention and control. National malaria control programs recognized the epidemiological stratification of malaria as a valuable method to assist them in the recognition of local variations and factors that specifically contribute to the level and intensity of transmission in critical malarious areas. Also it serves as a useful instrument for the selection of needed malaria prevention and control activities. The principal feature of this approach is to provide a dynamic and ongoing process for assessing the epidemiological importance of different risk factors (socio-economic, ecological, organization of health services) in malaria transmission. Health interventions are based on this assessment and are aimed directly at the reduction or elimination of the identified risk factors operating at the local level. Intersectorial co-participation and the integration of malaria programs in local health services are also important aspects of this public health approach.

  5. Malaria in pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Alvarez, Jesus R; Al-Khan, Abdulla; Apuzzio, Joseph J

    2005-12-01

    Recently, there has been a resurgence of malaria in densely populated areas of the United States secondary to human migration from endemic areas where factors such as cessation of vector control, vector resistance to insecticides, disease resistance to drugs, environmental changes, political instability, and indifference, have played a role for malaria becoming an overwhelming infection of these tropical underdeveloped countries. It is important for health care providers of gravida to be alert of the disease and its effects on pregnancy.

  6. Malaria Epidemiology and Control Within the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research.

    PubMed

    Moss, William J; Dorsey, Grant; Mueller, Ivo; Laufer, Miriam K; Krogstad, Donald J; Vinetz, Joseph M; Guzman, Mitchel; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel M; Herrera, Socrates; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Chery, Laura; Kumar, Ashwani; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K; Ramanathapuram, Lalitha; Srivastava, H C; Cui, Liwang; Zhou, Guofa; Parker, Daniel M; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Kazura, James W

    2015-09-01

    Understanding the epidemiological features and metrics of malaria in endemic populations is a key component to monitoring and quantifying the impact of current and past control efforts to inform future ones. The International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) has the opportunity to evaluate the impact of malaria control interventions across endemic regions that differ in the dominant Plasmodium species, mosquito vector species, resistance to antimalarial drugs and human genetic variants thought to confer protection from infection and clinical manifestations of plasmodia infection. ICEMR programs are conducting field studies at multiple sites with the aim of generating standardized surveillance data to improve the understanding of malaria transmission and to monitor and evaluate the impact of interventions to inform malaria control and elimination programs. In addition, these epidemiological studies provide a vast source of biological samples linked to clinical and environmental "meta-data" to support translational studies of interactions between the parasite, human host, and mosquito vector. Importantly, epidemiological studies at the ICEMR field sites are integrated with entomological studies, including the measurement of the entomological inoculation rate, human biting index, and insecticide resistance, as well as studies of parasite genetic diversity and antimalarial drug resistance.

  7. A review of spatial technologies with applications for malaria transmission modelling and control in Africa.

    PubMed

    Gebreslasie, Michael T

    2015-11-26

    Spatial technologies, i.e. geographic information systems, remote sensing, and global positioning systems, offer an opportunity for rapid assessment of malaria endemic areas. These technologies coupled with prevalence/incidence data can provide reliable estimates of population at risk, predict disease distributions in areas that lack baseline data and provide guidance for intervention strategies, so that scarce resources can be allocated in a cost-effective manner. This review focuses on the spatial technology applications that have been used in epidemiology and control of malaria in Africa. Peer-reviewed papers identified through a PubMed search using the following keywords: geospatial technology OR Geographic Information Systems OR Remote Sensing OR Earth Observation OR Global Positioning Systems OR geospatial modelling OR malaria incidence OR malaria prevalence OR malaria risk prediction OR malaria mapping AND malaria AND Africa were used. These included mapping malaria incidence and prevalence, assessing the relationship between malaria and environmental variables as well as applications for malaria early warning systems. The potential of new spatial technology applications utilising emerging satellite information, as they hold promise to further enhance infectious risk mapping and disease prediction, are outlined. We stress current research needs to overcome some of the remaining challenges of spatial technology applications for malaria so that further and sustainable progress can be made to control and eliminate this disease.

  8. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  9. DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America.

    PubMed Central

    Roberts, D. R.; Laughlin, L. L.; Hsheih, P.; Legters, L. J.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides. PMID:9284373

  10. Plasmodium malariae Prevalence and csp Gene Diversity, Kenya, 2014 and 2015

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Kristie; Nguyen, Jennifer; Hemming-Schroeder, Elizabeth; Xu, Jiaobao; Etemesi, Harrisone; Githeko, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    In Africa, control programs that target primarily Plasmodium falciparum are inadequate for eliminating malaria. To learn more about prevalence and genetic variability of P. malariae in Africa, we examined blood samples from 663 asymptomatic and 245 symptomatic persons from western Kenya during June–August of 2014 and 2015. P. malariae accounted for 5.3% (35/663) of asymptomatic infections and 3.3% (8/245) of clinical cases. Among asymptomatic persons, 71% (32/45) of P. malariae infections detected by PCR were undetected by microscopy. The low sensitivity of microscopy probably results from the significantly lower parasitemia of P. malariae. Analyses of P. malariae circumsporozoite protein gene sequences revealed high genetic diversity among P. malariae in Africa, but no clear differentiation among geographic populations was observed. Our findings suggest that P. malariae should be included in the malaria elimination strategy in Africa and highlight the need for sensitive and field-applicable methods to identify P. malariae in malaria-endemic areas. PMID:28322694

  11. Plasmodium malariae Prevalence and csp Gene Diversity, Kenya, 2014 and 2015.

    PubMed

    Lo, Eugenia; Nguyen, Kristie; Nguyen, Jennifer; Hemming-Schroeder, Elizabeth; Xu, Jiaobao; Etemesi, Harrisone; Githeko, Andrew; Yan, Guiyun

    2017-04-01

    In Africa, control programs that target primarily Plasmodium falciparum are inadequate for eliminating malaria. To learn more about prevalence and genetic variability of P. malariae in Africa, we examined blood samples from 663 asymptomatic and 245 symptomatic persons from western Kenya during June-August of 2014 and 2015. P. malariae accounted for 5.3% (35/663) of asymptomatic infections and 3.3% (8/245) of clinical cases. Among asymptomatic persons, 71% (32/45) of P. malariae infections detected by PCR were undetected by microscopy. The low sensitivity of microscopy probably results from the significantly lower parasitemia of P. malariae. Analyses of P. malariae circumsporozoite protein gene sequences revealed high genetic diversity among P. malariae in Africa, but no clear differentiation among geographic populations was observed. Our findings suggest that P. malariae should be included in the malaria elimination strategy in Africa and highlight the need for sensitive and field-applicable methods to identify P. malariae in malaria-endemic areas.

  12. Early detection and monitoring of Malaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Md Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdelhamid; Miller, Howard; Rosy, Dilara A.

    2015-05-01

    Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS) are bringing vital societal benefits to people around the globe. In this research article, we engage undergraduate students in the exciting area of space exploration to improve the health of millions of people globally. The goal of the proposed research is to place students in a learning environment where they will develop their problem solving skills in the context of a world crisis (e.g., malaria). Malaria remains one of the greatest threats to public health, particularly in developing countries. The World Health Organization has estimated that over one million die of Malaria each year, with more than 80% of these found in Sub-Saharan Africa. The mosquitoes transmit malaria. They breed in the areas of shallow surface water that are suitable to the mosquito and parasite development. These environmental factors can be detected with satellite imagery, which provide high spatial and temporal coverage of the earth's surface. We investigate on moisture, thermal and vegetation stress indicators developed from NOAA operational environmental satellite data. Using these indicators and collected epidemiological data, it is possible to produce a forecast system that can predict the risk of malaria for a particular geographical area with up to four months lead time. This valuable lead time information provides an opportunity for decision makers to deploy the necessary preventive measures (spraying, treated net distribution, storing medications and etc) in threatened areas with maximum effectiveness. The main objective of the proposed research is to study the effect of ecology on human health and application of NOAA satellite data for early detection of malaria.

  13. UK malaria treatment guidelines.

    PubMed

    Lalloo, David G; Shingadia, Delane; Pasvol, Geoffrey; Chiodini, Peter L; Whitty, Christopher J; Beeching, Nicholas J; Hill, David R; Warrell, David A; Bannister, Barbara A

    2007-02-01

    Malaria is the tropical disease most commonly imported into the UK, with 1500-2000 cases reported each year, and 10-20 deaths. Approximately three-quarters of reported malaria cases in the UK are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is capable of invading a high proportion of red blood cells and rapidly leading to severe or life-threatening multi-organ disease. Most non-falciparum malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium vivax; a few cases are caused by the other two species of Plasmodium: Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium malariae. Mixed infections with more than 1 species of parasite can occur; they commonly involve P. falciparum with the attendant risks of severe malaria. Management of malaria depends on awareness of the diagnosis and on performing the correct diagnostic tests: the diagnosis cannot be excluded until 3 blood specimens have been examined by an experienced microscopist. There are no typical clinical features of malaria, even fever is not invariably present. The optimum diagnostic procedure is examination of thick and thin blood films by an expert to detect and speciate the malarial parasites; P. falciparum malaria can be diagnosed almost as accurately using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which detect plasmodial antigens or enzymes, although RDTs for other Plasmodium species are not as reliable. The treatment of choice for non-falciparum malaria is a 3-day course of oral chloroquine, to which only a limited proportion of P. vivax strains have gained resistance. Dormant parasites (hypnozoites) persist in the liver after treatment of P. vivax or P. ovale infection: the only currently effective drug for eradication of hypnozoites is primaquine. This must be avoided or given with caution under expert supervision in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PD), in whom it may cause severe haemolysis. Uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria can be treated orally with quinine, atovaquone plus proguanil (Malarone) or co-artemether (Riamet

  14. Impact of Horizontal Approach in Vertical Program: Continuous Quality Improvement of Malaria and Tuberculosis Diagnostic Services at Primary-Level Medical Laboratories in the Context of HIV Care and Treatment Program in Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Marinucci, Francesco; Manyazewal, Tsegahun; Paterniti, Antonio D.; Medina-Moreno, Sandra; Wattleworth, Matthew; Hagembe, Juliana; Redfield, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The use of standardized tools for continuous quality improvement of laboratory services is crucial to identify service gaps, plan targeted interventions, and prove successes. Laboratory quality improvement tools (LQITs) were developed and applied for 18 months at five health centers and one faith-based hospital laboratories in Southwest Showa Zone in Ethiopia to assess and monitor the quality of malaria and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy total testing processes. For the six laboratories, baseline malaria microscopy scores were 55%, 42%, 52%, 55%, 54%, and 61%. Similarly, baseline AFB microscopy scores were 49%, 41%, 46%, 58%, 44%, and 70%. On the sixth quarter for the first four laboratories and the fourth quarter for the last two laboratories, malaria microscopy scores were 89%, 88%, 88%, 90%, 88%, and 89%, whereas AFB microscopy scores were 90%, 88%, 89%, 95%, 88%, and 90%. All laboratories scored above 85% for both services at the end of interventions. PMID:23324221

  15. Impact of horizontal approach in vertical program: continuous quality improvement of malaria and tuberculosis diagnostic services at primary-level medical laboratories in the context of HIV care and treatment program in Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Marinucci, Francesco; Manyazewal, Tsegahun; Paterniti, Antonio D; Medina-Moreno, Sandra; Wattleworth, Matthew; Hagembe, Juliana; Redfield, Robert R

    2013-03-01

    The use of standardized tools for continuous quality improvement of laboratory services is crucial to identify service gaps, plan targeted interventions, and prove successes. Laboratory quality improvement tools (LQITs) were developed and applied for 18 months at five health centers and one faith-based hospital laboratories in Southwest Showa Zone in Ethiopia to assess and monitor the quality of malaria and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy total testing processes. For the six laboratories, baseline malaria microscopy scores were 55%, 42%, 52%, 55%, 54%, and 61%. Similarly, baseline AFB microscopy scores were 49%, 41%, 46%, 58%, 44%, and 70%. On the sixth quarter for the first four laboratories and the fourth quarter for the last two laboratories, malaria microscopy scores were 89%, 88%, 88%, 90%, 88%, and 89%, whereas AFB microscopy scores were 90%, 88%, 89%, 95%, 88%, and 90%. All laboratories scored above 85% for both services at the end of interventions.

  16. Design of asymptotic estimators: an approach based on neural networks and nonlinear programming.

    PubMed

    Alessandri, Angelo; Cervellera, Cristiano; Sanguineti, Marcello

    2007-01-01

    A methodology to design state estimators for a class of nonlinear continuous-time dynamic systems that is based on neural networks and nonlinear programming is proposed. The estimator has the structure of a Luenberger observer with a linear gain and a parameterized (in general, nonlinear) function, whose argument is an innovation term representing the difference between the current measurement and its prediction. The problem of the estimator design consists in finding the values of the gain and of the parameters that guarantee the asymptotic stability of the estimation error. Toward this end, if a neural network is used to take on this function, the parameters (i.e., the neural weights) are chosen, together with the gain, by constraining the derivative of a quadratic Lyapunov function for the estimation error to be negative definite on a given compact set. It is proved that it is sufficient to impose the negative definiteness of such a derivative only on a suitably dense grid of sampling points. The gain is determined by solving a Lyapunov equation. The neural weights are searched for via nonlinear programming by minimizing a cost penalizing grid-point constraints that are not satisfied. Techniques based on low-discrepancy sequences are applied to deal with a small number of sampling points, and, hence, to reduce the computational burden required to optimize the parameters. Numerical results are reported and comparisons with those obtained by the extended Kalman filter are made.

  17. The impact of endemic and epidemic malaria on the risk of stillbirth in two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns

    PubMed Central

    Wort, Ulrika Uddenfeldt; Hastings, Ian; Mutabingwa, TK; Brabin, Bernard J

    2006-01-01

    Background The impact of malaria on the risk of stillbirth is still under debate. The aim of the present analysis was to determine comparative changes in stillbirth prevalence between two areas of Tanzania with different malaria transmission patterns in order to estimate the malaria attributable component. Methods A retrospective analysis was completed of stillbirth differences between primigravidae and multigravidae in relation to malaria cases and transmission patterns for two different areas of Tanzania with a focus on the effects of the El Niño southern climatic oscillation (ENSO). One area, Kagera, experiences outbreaks of malaria, and the other area, Morogoro, is holoendemic. Delivery and malaria data were collected over a six year period from records of the two district hospitals in these locations. Results There was a significantly higher prevalence of low birthweight in primigravidae compared to multigravidae for both data sets. Low birthweight and stillbirth prevalence (17.5% and 4.8%) were significantly higher in Kilosa compared to Ndolage (11.9% and 2.4%). There was a significant difference in stillbirth prevalence between Ndolage and Kilosa between malaria seasons (2.4% and 5.6% respectively, p < 0.001) and during malaria seasons (1.9% and 5.9% respectively, p < 0.001). During ENSO there was no difference (4.1% and 4.9%, respectively). There was a significant difference in low birthweight prevalence between Ndolage and Kilosa between malaria seasons (14.4% and 23.0% respectively, p < 0.001) and in relation to malaria seasons (13.9% and 25.2% respectively, p < 0.001). During ENSO there was no difference (22.2% and 19.8%, respectively). Increased low birthweight risk occurred approximately five months following peak malaria prevalence, but stillbirth risk increased at the time of malaria peaks. Conclusion Malaria exposure during pregnancy has a delayed effect on birthweight outcomes, but a more acute effect on stillbirth risk. PMID:17044915

  18. Factoring quality laboratory diagnosis into the malaria control agenda for sub-Saharan Africa.

    PubMed

    Aidoo, Michael

    2013-09-01

    Recent progress in malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa has been achieved primarily through provision of insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and antimalarial drugs. Although these interventions are important, proper case identification and accurate measurement of their impact depend on quality diagnostic testing. Current availability of diagnostic testing for malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is inadequate to support disease management, prevention programs, and surveillance needs. Challenges faced include a dearth of skilled workforce, inadequate health systems infrastructure, and lack of political will. A coordinated approach to providing pre-service clinical and laboratory training together with systems that support a scale-up of laboratory services could provide means not only for effective malaria case management but also, management of non-malaria febrile illnesses, disease surveillance, and accurate control program evaluation. A synthesis of the challenges faced in ensuring quality malaria testing and how to include this information in the malaria control and elimination agenda are presented.

  19. Malaria and tuberculosis: our concerns.

    PubMed

    Shiva, M

    1997-01-01

    In 1978 the concept of primary health care was adopted by 116 countries at Alma Ata, yet the negative impact of structural readjustment programs in Africa and South America could be felt due to the cuts in expenditures on health, education, and social matters. The result is a resurgence of communicable diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis. Another factor in this resurgence is extreme poverty. In 1994 over 1000 people died in Rajasthan, India, of a malaria epidemic, and during the same time in Delhi over 300 deaths were attributed to hemorrhagic dengue fever. Malariogenic and tuberculous conditions continue to flourish owing to distorted development patterns and commercialization of medical care as public health and community health services are being replaced by profit-oriented curative care, 80% of which is in private hands. This has resulted in spiraling medical care costs and rural indebtedness. Socioeconomic deprivation in developing countries threatens TB control. Factors contributing to the spread of TB were established in 1899 and are still valid in India and other developing countries: TB contamination of air, inadequate food, overcrowded dwelling, and low state of physical health. Even in developed countries TB is on the rise: there were 172 cases in 1991 in England vs. 305 cases in 1993, half of them among immigrants. The increase occurred in the poorest 30% of the population. The World Bank is providing loans for a revised TB and malaria strategy, and the Disability Adjusted Life Year has been used to identify the greatest burden of diseases. On the other hand, the Indian National Health Policy has not been revised since 1983. Priority must be given to those living in extreme poverty to curb the resurgence of once controlled diseases.

  20. System-level power estimation using SystemC and aspect-oriented programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Feng; Abbasi, Naeem; Tan, Qingping

    2010-09-01

    Rapid system modelling and early evaluation of design characterisation are central to design space exploration. SystemC is used widely for system-level modelling, but it lacks the semantics to capture power consumption. The article presents a novel high-level power estimation methodology based on SystemC and aspect-oriented programming (AOP). Using a composite pattern, our methodology is applicable to the power estimation of a complex system. The proposed strategies support macro-models with multiple features. The experimental results are illustrated with case studies.

  1. Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. Operating experience with pulsed-column holdup estimators

    SciTech Connect

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for estimating pulsed-column holdup are being investigated as part of the Safeguards Assessment task of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The CFRP was a major sponsor of test runs at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel plant (BNFP) in 1980 and 1981. During these tests, considerable measurement data were collected for pulsed columns in the plutonium purification portion of the plant. These data have been used to evaluate and compare three available methods of holdup estimation.

  2. The treatment of malaria.

    PubMed

    White, N J

    1996-09-12

    Increasing drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum and a resurgence of malaria in tropical areas have effected a change in treatment of malaria in the last two decades. Symptoms of malaria are fever, chills, headache, and malaise. The prognosis worsens as the parasite counts, counts of mature parasites, and counts of neutrophils containing pigment increase. Treatment depends on severity, age of patient, degree of background immunity, likely pattern of susceptibility to antimalarial drugs, and the cost and availability of drugs. Chloroquine should be used for P. vivax, P. malariae, and P. ovale. P. vivax has shown high resistance to chloroquine in Oceania, however. Primaquine may be needed to treat P. vivax and P. ovale to rid the body of hypnozoites that survive in the liver. Chloroquine can treat P. falciparum infections acquired in North Africa, Central America north of the Panama Canal, Haiti, or the Middle East but not in most of Africa and some parts of Asia and South America. In areas of low grade resistance to chloroquine, amodiaquine can be used to effectively treat falciparum malaria. A combination of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine is responsive to falciparum infections with high grade resistance to chloroquine. Mefloquine, halofantrine, or quinine with tetracycline can be used to treat multidrug-resistant P. falciparum. Derivatives of artemisinin obtained from qinghao or sweet wormwood developed as pharmaceuticals in China are the most rapidly acting of all antimalarial drugs. Children tend to tolerate antimalarial drugs well. Children who weigh less than 15 kg should not be given mefloquine. Health workers should not prescribe primaquine to pregnant women or newborns due to the risk of hemolysis. Chloroquine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, quinine, and quinidine can be safely given in therapeutic doses throughout pregnancy. Clinical manifestations of severe malaria are hypoglycemia, convulsions, severe anemia, acute renal failure, jaundice, pulmonary edema

  3. [Malaria in the Americas].

    PubMed

    Carme, B; Venturin, C

    1999-01-01

    In 1996, malaria involving Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium falciparum, and, to a lesser extent, Plasmodium malariae was endemic in 21 countries in the Americas. The Amazon river basin and bordering areas including the Guyanas were the most affected zones. Until the mid 1970s, endemic malaria appeared to be under control. However in the ensuing 15 year period, the situation deteriorated drastically. Although trends varied depending on location, aggregate indexes indicated a twofold increase with recrudescence in previously settled areas and emergence in newly populated zones. Since 1990, the situation has worsened further in some areas where increased incidences have been associated with a high levels of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. However this species remains in minority except in the Guyanas where the highest annual incidences (100 to 500 cases per 1000) and the most drug-resistant Plasmodium have been reported. The causes underlying this deterioration are numerous and complex. In regions naturally prone to transmission of the disease, outbreaks have been intensified by unrestrained settlement. The resulting deforestation has created new breeding areas for Anopheles darlingi, the main vector of malaria in the Americas. Migration of poor populations to newly opened farming and mining areas has created highly exposed areas for malaria infection. Implementation of adequate medical care and prevention measures has been hindered by a lack of money and sociopolitical unrest. Climatic phenomenon related the El Nino have also been favorable to the return of malaria to the region. Except with regard to financial resources and political unrest, the same risk factors for malaria are present in French Guiana.

  4. MC DRAG - A Computer Program for Estimating the Drag Coefficients of Projectiles

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-02-01

    CALIBERS AERO RANGE MC DRAG BOATTAIL LENGTH = .69 CALIBERS 2 4 6 8 10 12 BOATTAIL ANGLE (DEGREES) . 5 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0...Program for Estimating the Drag Coefficients of Projectiles 5 . TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED Final 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT NUMBER 7. AUTHORf...range of 0.5 to 5 and a projectile diameter range of 4 to 400 millimetres. A user’s guide and a FORTRAN listing of MC DRAG is provided. The program

  5. Aerodynamic design guidelines and computer program for estimation of subsonic wind tunnel performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eckert, W. T.; Mort, K. W.; Jope, J.

    1976-01-01

    General guidelines are given for the design of diffusers, contractions, corners, and the inlets and exits of non-return tunnels. A system of equations, reflecting the current technology, has been compiled and assembled into a computer program (a user's manual for this program is included) for determining the total pressure losses. The formulation presented is applicable to compressible flow through most closed- or open-throat, single-, double-, or non-return wind tunnels. A comparison of estimated performance with that actually achieved by several existing facilities produced generally good agreement.

  6. Epidemiology of Malaria in Amritsar District of India

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Vishal; Mittal, Mridula; Sharma, Vishal

    2014-01-01

    Objective Malaria is today one of the major causes of human suffering, both in terms of increasing morbidity/mortality and stunting intellectual/ economic growth. In a developing country like India, it has devastating socioeconomic consequences. The present study was therefore carried out to study the epidemiology of malaria in Amritsar district. Methods Diagnosed cases of Malaria reported from 1st January to 31st December 2009 in the erstwhile District of Amritsar were collected from the District Epidemiologist of Amritsar and Taran Taaran and studied. A total of 314 patients were studied. Data was assessed, systematically compiled and statistically analyzed. Results Most (84%) of the malaria patients in our study were less than 45 years of age. Male patients (57%) outnumbered females (43%). The majority of patients with malaria (98%) were from rural areas and 68.5% of the studied patients belonged to upper lower socioeconomical class according to Kuppuswamy socioeconomic status scale. The majority (83%) of patients took treatment from Registered Medical Practitioners/quacks. Out of the total patients, only 14% used mosquito nets, 13% used repellents, and 7% had wire gauze doors in their homes Conclusion The people living in rural areas were found to be more vulnerable to malaria. The disease was found to be more prevalent among the lower socio economic strata and young population leading to considerable adverse effect on health and economy. Our study aims to stress the estimation of the true burden of malaria. PMID:24715945

  7. Management of severe malaria: results from recent trials.

    PubMed

    Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Maitland, Kathryn

    2013-01-01

    Globally, malaria remains a substantial public health burden with an estimated 349-552 million clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria each year--leading to 780,000 deaths directly attributable to the disease. Whilst the outcome from severe malaria in Africa children remains poor, recent developments in the management of malaria have come from two key sources--the introduction of new, safe and rapidly-effective anti-malarials and high quality evidence from two of the largest clinical trials ever conducted in African children with severe malaria. As a result, the time-honoured anti-malarial treatment for severe malaria, quinine, will now be replaced by artesunate, a water-soluble artemisinin derivative. Supportive care, specifically the management of shock, has been informed by a large late phase clinical trial which concluded that bolus resuscitation is harmful and therefore should be avoided in children with severe malaria, including the high risk group with severe metabolic acidosis and advanced shock.

  8. Acute kidney injury associated with Plasmodium malariae infection.

    PubMed

    Badiane, Aida S; Diongue, Khadim; Diallo, Seydou; Ndongo, Aliou A; Diedhiou, Cyrille K; Deme, Awa B; Ma, Diallo; Ndiaye, Mouhamadou; Seck, Mame C; Dieng, Therese; Ndir, Omar; Mboup, Souleymane; Ndiaye, Daouda

    2014-06-07

    According to current estimates, Plasmodium malariae is not very common in Senegal, as more than 98% of malaria cases are suspected to be due to Plasmodium falciparum. However, it is possible that other malarial species are being under-reported or misdiagnosed. This is a report of a case of P. malariae in a 30-year-old man previously hospitalized with acute kidney injury after treatment with quinine and re-hospitalized three months later. He was diagnosed with renal cortical necrosis post malaria treatment. Plasmodium malariae was identified with light microscope and confirmed using species-specific small-subunit rRNA (ssrRNA) amplification.The patient was treated for malaria with intravenous quinine for seven days, followed by three days of oral treatment; the bacterial infection was treated using ceftriaxone during the first hospitalization and ciprofloxacin associated with ceftriaxone the second time. He also had four rounds of dialysis after which he partially recovered the renal function. Given the complications that can be caused by P. malariae infection, it should be systematically looked for, even if the predominant species is P. falciparum in Senegal.

  9. [RAN: A computer program to estimate random response patterns in objective tests Computar program for random response].

    PubMed

    Merino Soto, César; López Pina, José

    2010-05-01

    In the psychological measurement, especially in personality, the paper-pencil method is the usual device between the psychologist and allied professions. The score obtained by a person examined can have questionable validity if the responses were random. To identify this problem, different methods have been used. The random response is a challenging situation for the measurement research and diagnosis in cognitive performance and personality, when they have been measured by test of dichotomous type. In this study a computer program that implements the Charter's method of point estimate and confidence intervals is presented in order to identify if the score obtained can be considered random. We analyze and discuss this program uses in the research and professional practice.

  10. Modelling the Protective Efficacy of Alternative Delivery Schedules for Intermittent Preventive Treatment of Malaria in Infants and Children

    PubMed Central

    Cairns, Matthew; Ghani, Azra; Okell, Lucy; Gosling, Roly; Carneiro, Ilona; Anto, Francis; Asoala, Victor; Owusu-Agyei, Seth; Greenwood, Brian; Chandramohan, Daniel; Milligan, Paul

    2011-01-01

    Background Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended by WHO where malaria incidence in infancy is high and SP resistance is low. The current delivery strategy is via routine Expanded Program on Immunisation contacts during infancy (EPI-IPTi). However, improvements to this approach may be possible where malaria transmission is seasonal, or where the malaria burden lies mainly outside infancy. Methods and Findings A mathematical model was developed to estimate the protective efficacy (PE) of IPT against clinical malaria in children aged 2-24 months, using entomological and epidemiological data from an EPI-IPTi trial in Navrongo, Ghana to parameterise the model. The protection achieved by seasonally-targeted IPT in infants (sIPTi), seasonal IPT in children (sIPTc), and by case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapies (LA-ACTs) was predicted for Navrongo and for sites with different transmission intensity and seasonality. In Navrongo, the predicted PE of sIPTi was 26% by 24 months of age, compared to 16% with EPI-IPTi. sIPTc given to all children under 2 years would provide PE of 52% by 24 months of age. Seasonally-targeted IPT retained its advantages in a range of transmission patterns. Under certain circumstances, LA-ACTs for case-management may provide similar protection to EPI-IPTi. However, EPI-IPTi or sIPT combined with LA-ACTs would be substantially more protective than either strategy used alone. Conclusion Delivery of IPT to infants via the EPI is sub-optimal because individuals are not protected by IPT at the time of highest malaria risk, and because older children are not protected. Alternative delivery strategies to the EPI are needed where transmission varies seasonally or the malaria burden extends beyond infancy. Long-acting ACTs may also make important reductions in malaria incidence. However, delivery systems must be developed to ensure that both forms of chemoprevention

  11. Malaria eradication: the economic, financial and institutional challenge

    PubMed Central

    Mills, Anne; Lubell, Yoel; Hanson, Kara

    2008-01-01

    Malaria eradication raises many economic, financial and institutional challenges. This paper reviews these challenges, drawing on evidence from previous efforts to eradicate malaria, with a special focus on resource-poor settings; summarizes more recent evidence on the challenges, drawing on the literature on the difficulties of scaling-up malaria control and strengthening health systems more broadly; and explores the implications of these bodies of evidence for the current call for elimination and intensified control. Economic analyses dating from the eradication era, and more recent analyses, suggest that, in general, the benefits of malaria control outweigh the costs, though few studies have looked at the relative returns to eradication versus long-term control. Estimates of financial costs are scanty and difficult to compare. In the 1960s, the consolidation phase appeared to cost less than $1 per capita and, in 1988, was estimated to be $2.31 per capita (both in 2006 prices). More recent estimates for high coverage of control measures suggest a per capita cost of several dollars. Institutional challenges faced by malaria eradication included limits to the rule of law (a major problem where malaria was concentrated in border areas with movement of people associated with illegal activities), the existence and performance of local implementing structures, and political sustainability at national and global levels. Recent analyses of the constraints to scaling-up malaria control, together with the historical evidence, are used to discuss the economic, financial and institutional challenges that face the renewed call for eradication and intensified control. The paper concludes by identifying a research agenda covering: ∘ issues of the allocative efficiency of malaria eradication, especially using macro-economic modelling to estimate the benefits and costs of malaria eradication and intensified control, and studies of the links between malaria control and economic

  12. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. The fastclime Package for Linear Programming and Large-Scale Precision Matrix Estimation in R.

    PubMed

    Pang, Haotian; Liu, Han; Vanderbei, Robert

    2014-02-01

    We develop an R package fastclime for solving a family of regularized linear programming (LP) problems. Our package efficiently implements the parametric simplex algorithm, which provides a scalable and sophisticated tool for solving large-scale linear programs. As an illustrative example, one use of our LP solver is to implement an important sparse precision matrix estimation method called CLIME (Constrained L1 Minimization Estimator). Compared with existing packages for this problem such as clime and flare, our package has three advantages: (1) it efficiently calculates the full piecewise-linear regularization path; (2) it provides an accurate dual certificate as stopping criterion; (3) it is completely coded in C and is highly portable. This package is designed to be useful to statisticians and machine learning researchers for solving a wide range of problems.

  14. Intergenerational Long-Term Effects of Preschool - Structural Estimates from a Discrete Dynamic Programming Model*

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James J.; Raut, Lakshmi K.

    2015-01-01

    This paper formulates a structural dynamic programming model of preschool investment choices of altruistic parents and then empirically estimates the structural parameters of the model using the NLSY79 data. The paper finds that preschool investment significantly boosts cognitive and non-cognitive skills, which enhance earnings and school outcomes. It also finds that a standard Mincer earnings function, by omitting measures of non-cognitive skills on the right-hand side, overestimates the rate of return to schooling. From the estimated equilibrium Markov process, the paper studies the nature of within generation earnings distribution, intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. The paper finds that a tax-financed free preschool program for the children of poor socioeconomic status generates positive net gains to the society in terms of average earnings, higher intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. PMID:26709326

  15. Intergenerational Long-Term Effects of Preschool - Structural Estimates from a Discrete Dynamic Programming Model.

    PubMed

    Heckman, James J; Raut, Lakshmi K

    2016-03-01

    This paper formulates a structural dynamic programming model of preschool investment choices of altruistic parents and then empirically estimates the structural parameters of the model using the NLSY79 data. The paper finds that preschool investment significantly boosts cognitive and non-cognitive skills, which enhance earnings and school outcomes. It also finds that a standard Mincer earnings function, by omitting measures of non-cognitive skills on the right-hand side, overestimates the rate of return to schooling. From the estimated equilibrium Markov process, the paper studies the nature of within generation earnings distribution, intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility. The paper finds that a tax-financed free preschool program for the children of poor socioeconomic status generates positive net gains to the society in terms of average earnings, higher intergenerational earnings mobility, and schooling mobility.

  16. Advanced Transportation System Studies. Technical Area 3: Alternate Propulsion Subsystems Concepts. Volume 3; Program Cost Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levack, Daniel J. H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this contract was to provide definition of alternate propulsion systems for both earth-to-orbit (ETO) and in-space vehicles (upper stages and space transfer vehicles). For such propulsion systems, technical data to describe performance, weight, dimensions, etc. was provided along with programmatic information such as cost, schedule, needed facilities, etc. Advanced technology and advanced development needs were determined and provided. This volume separately presents the various program cost estimates that were generated under three tasks: the F- IA Restart Task, the J-2S Restart Task, and the SSME Upper Stage Use Task. The conclusions, technical results , and the program cost estimates are described in more detail in Volume I - Executive Summary and in individual Final Task Reports.

  17. Malaria paediatric hospitalization between 1999 and 2008 across Kenya

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background Intervention coverage and funding for the control of malaria in Africa has increased in recent years, however, there are few descriptions of changing disease burden and the few reports available are from isolated, single site observations or are of reports at country-level. Here we present a nationwide assessment of changes over 10 years in paediatric malaria hospitalization across Kenya. Methods Paediatric admission data on malaria and non-malaria diagnoses were assembled for the period 1999 to 2008 from in-patient registers at 17 district hospitals in Kenya and represented the diverse malaria ecology of the country. These data were then analysed using autoregressive moving average time series models with malaria and all-cause admissions as the main outcomes adjusted for rainfall, changes in service use and populations-at-risk within each hospital's catchment to establish whether there has been a statistically significant decline in paediatric malaria hospitalization during the observation period. Results Among the 17 hospital sites, adjusted paediatric malaria admissions had significantly declined at 10 hospitals over 10 years since 1999; had significantly increased at four hospitals, and remained unchanged in three hospitals. The overall estimated average reduction in malaria admission rates was 0.0063 cases per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years per month representing an average percentage reduction of 49% across the 10 hospitals registering a significant decline by the end of 2008. Paediatric admissions for all-causes had declined significantly with a reduction in admission rates of greater than 0.0050 cases per 1,000 children aged 0 to 14 years per month at 6 of 17 hospitals. Where malaria admissions had increased three of the four sites were located in Western Kenya close to Lake Victoria. Conversely there was an indication that areas with the largest declines in malaria admission rates were areas located along the Kenyan coast and some sites in

  18. [Malaria in mangrove areas of the Saloum delta (Senegal)].

    PubMed

    Diop, Abdoulaye; Konate, Lassana; Molez, Jean-François; Diouf, Malick; Gaye, Oumar; Fontenille, Didier; Diagne, Moussa; Faye, Ousmane

    2006-01-01

    This study of malaria biodiversity in Senegal used an entomological approach that combined parasite surveys and clinical investigations in the mangrove area of the Saloum delta from 1996 to 1998. The parasitologic studies took place in two of the six villages in the coastal area of Palmarin (Djifère and Diakhanor) during three distinct periods: at the end of the dry season, in the middle of the rainy season, and at the end of the rainy season. The clinical investigations at the Palmarin health station took place from July 1996 through February 1998. A malaria attack was defined as the presence of malaria symptoms (including fever, headaches, sweating, and shivering) associated with plasmodic parasitemia > 3,000 trophozoites/microL of blood. All the positive thick smears were infected with Plasmodium falciparum, one also with P. falciparum, and none with P. ovale. The average plasmodic index (5.6%) classifies the delta of Saloum as a hypoendemic area. The average parasite load was estimated at 2,239 trophozoites (95% CI: 1,660-3,020) of P. falciparum per microliter of blood, and 86.9% of patients with symptoms of a malaria attack were febrile. Malaria attacks accounted for 1.9% of the total consultations, 12.2% of the presumed malaria cases, and 14.0% of the febrile subjects. The finding that malaria attacks affected all age groups confirms the weakness of anti-malaria immunity among the population of the Saloum delta. Malaria cases were more frequent at the end of the rainy season and the beginning of the dry season, periods when parasite loads were highest. In this area, which is increasingly attractive to tourists and has a quite superficial fresh water table, man-made environmental changes favor mosquito breeding sites that promote the development of An. arabiensis and An. gambiae spp, both known to be major malaria vectors. In view of the population's weak anti-malaria immunity, this situation may increase malaria transmission and could be followed by

  19. U.S. International HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria Spending: FY2004-FY2008

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-06

    Order Code RL33485 U.S. International HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis , and Malaria Spending: FY2004-FY2008 Updated March 6, 2007 Tiaji Salaam-Blyther...International HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis , and Malaria Spending: FY2004-FY2008 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6... Tuberculosis , and Malaria Spending: FY2004-FY2008 Summary On January 28, 2003, during his State of the Union Address, President George Bush proposed that the

  20. etas_solve: A robust program to estimate the ETAS parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Y.; Kasahara, A.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model introduced by Ogata (1988) has been widely used to quantitatively describe seismicity (e.g. Ogata, 1992; Llenos et al., 2009). However, only a few programs for estimation of the ETAS parameters are publicly available, and it is difficult to automatically apply some of them to observed data due to initial value dependence (e.g. Ogata, 2006). A robust ETAS estimation program is required to meet the recent enhancement of earthquake catalogs. In this study, we developed a new program, etas_solve, that is based on Newton's method and calculates exact gradient and Hessian by using the automatic differentiation technique (Griewank, 1989). The program also supports auxiliary window in time and magnitude (Wang et al., 2010).To demonstrate robustness of the developed program, we tested the dependence of estimated parameters on the choice of initial value by running the program from 1,024 randomly chosen initial values, and then compared the results with that of SAPP (Ogata 2006). We used aftershock data of 26th July 2003 earthquake of M6.2 at the northern Miyagi japan, which is shipped with SAPP, as a testing data. We found that estimation values with etas_solve were independent of the initial value for the testing data, while that with SAPP were varied with the initial value. Although there was initial value dependence in the SAPP's results, the estimated values by SAPP with small (≤10-5) gradient coincided with the solution by etas_solve. etas_solve took longer computation time per iteration than SAPP due to the exact Hessian calculation, but total execution time was comparable to that of SAPP since less number of iterations for convergence was required. In addition, etas_solve was faster than SAPP on multicore machines (around 8-fold speed up with a 16 core machine) since etas_solve is parallelized by OpenMP.etas_solve is written in Fortran and distributed under GNU General Public License at https

  1. EGADS: A microcomputer program for estimating the aerodynamic performance of general aviation aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melton, John E.

    1994-01-01

    EGADS is a comprehensive preliminary design tool for estimating the performance of light, single-engine general aviation aircraft. The software runs on the Apple Macintosh series of personal computers and assists amateur designers and aeronautical engineering students in performing the many repetitive calculations required in the aircraft design process. The program makes full use of the mouse and standard Macintosh interface techniques to simplify the input of various design parameters. Extensive graphics, plotting, and text output capabilities are also included.

  2. RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bream, Bruce L.

    1993-04-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

  3. Quantifying Uncertainty in Early Lifecycle Cost Estimation for DOD Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-10-31

    Acquisition Programs Cost Estimation Research Team: Bob Ferguson ( SEI - SEMA) Dennis Goldenson PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Jim McCurley ( SEI ...SEMA) Bob Stoddard ( SEI - SEMA) Dave Zubrow PhD ( SEI - SEMA) Julie Cohen ( SEI - ASP) Tim Morrow ( SEI - ASP) Eduardo Miranda PhD (CMU ISR...McCurley Senior Technical Staff Jim McCurley is a Senior Member of the Technical Staff at the Software Engineering Institute ( SEI ). During his 15

  4. RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bream, Bruce L.

    1993-01-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

  5. Modifications to Computer Program for Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Gamma Distribution,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-05-01

    10 EVALUATION OF MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD .. .. ..... 13 DIGITAL PROGRAM DESCRIPTION .. .... ...... .... 14 INPUT DATA...Unit Number 1-1506-012. INTRODUCTION A computerized procedure for evaluating the parameters of the generalized gamma distribution from a set of random...0n 0" 0" C/) Cd) V) 12 EVALUATION OF THE MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHOD The method previously employed to determine estimation param- eters for the

  6. Estimating Tree-Structured Covariance Matrices via Mixed-Integer Programming.

    PubMed

    Bravo, Héctor Corrada; Wright, Stephen; Eng, Kevin H; Keles, Sündüz; Wahba, Grace

    2009-01-01

    We present a novel method for estimating tree-structured covariance matrices directly from observed continuous data. Specifically, we estimate a covariance matrix from observations of p continuous random variables encoding a stochastic process over a tree with p leaves. A representation of these classes of matrices as linear combinations of rank-one matrices indicating object partitions is used to formulate estimation as instances of well-studied numerical optimization problems.In particular, our estimates are based on projection, where the covariance estimate is the nearest tree-structured covariance matrix to an observed sample covariance matrix. The problem is posed as a linear or quadratic mixed-integer program (MIP) where a setting of the integer variables in the MIP specifies a set of tree topologies of the structured covariance matrix. We solve these problems to optimality using efficient and robust existing MIP solvers.We present a case study in phylogenetic analysis of gene expression and a simulation study comparing our method to distance-based tree estimating procedures.

  7. Estimating Development Cost for a Tailored Interactive Computer Program to Enhance Colorectal Cancer Screening Compliance

    PubMed Central

    Lairson, David R.; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L.; Vernon, Sally W.; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was $328,866. The development cost was $52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions. PMID:16799126

  8. 2002 status report: Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R) voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla; Koomey, Jonathan

    2003-03-03

    ENERGY STAR [registered trademark] is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2001, what we expect in 2002, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2002 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  9. 2003 status report savings estimates for the energy star(R)voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

    2004-11-09

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2002, what we expect in 2003, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2003 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  10. Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) voluntary labeling program: 2001 status report

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Mahajan, Akshay; Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2002-02-15

    ENERGY STAR(Registered Trademark) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2000, what we expect in 2001, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2001 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  11. Estimating development cost for a tailored interactive computer program to enhance colorectal cancer screening compliance.

    PubMed

    Lairson, David R; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L; Vernon, Sally W; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was Dollars 328,866. The development cost was Dollars 52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions.

  12. [Malaria chemoprophylaxis in traveling children].

    PubMed

    Minodier, P; Noël, G; Blanc, P; Tsaregorodtseva, N; Retornaz, K; Garnier, J M

    2005-01-01

    In France, 4,000 imported malaria cases are reported each year (7,000 to 8,000 estimated). Chemoprophylaxis is essential for prevention in travelers. When malaria is susceptible to chloroquine, this drug (Nivaquine) has to be used. It is given daily in France (1.5 mg/kg per day), from departure to four weeks after return. When low levels of chloroquino-resistance are reported, French authorities recommend the use of chloroquine + proguanil (Savarine) if the body weight is >50 kg or Nivaquine) + Paludrine), if <50 kg), or atovaquone + proguanil (Malarone). Nivaquine) (1.5 mg/kg per day) and Paludrine) (3 mg/kg per day) have to be pursued for one month after return, although Malarone) (1 pediatric tablet/10 kg per day, in children >10 kg weight) may be disrupted after one single week. Adverse events are rarer with atovaquone + proguanil, than with chloroquine + proguanil. When chloroquino-resistance is high, Malarone) or mefloquine (Lariam) are used. Weekly drug regimen is recommended with mefloquine (5 mg/kg per weight) for the travel duration and four weeks after return and the drug tolerance is good in pediatric prophylaxis. Doxycycline is used under conditions in children >8 years of age. New drugs as for tafenoquine, an amino-8 quinoleine, might enhance patients compliance if given monthly.

  13. Predictors of malaria-association with rubber plantations in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The national Global Fund-supported malaria (GFM) program in Thailand, which focuses on the household-level implementation of vector control via insecticide-treated nets (ITNs)/long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) combined with indoor residual spraying (IRS), has been combating malaria risk situations in different provinces with complex epidemiological settings. By using the perception of malaria villagers (MVs), defined as villagers who recognized malaria burden and had local understanding of mosquitoes, malaria, and ITNs/LLINs and practiced preventive measures, this study investigated the predictors for malaria that are associated with rubber plantations in an area of high household-level implementation coverage of IRS (2007–2010) and ITNs/LLINs (2008–2010) in Prachuap Khiri Khan Province. Methods A structured questionnaire addressing socio-demographics, household characteristics and health behavioral factors (knowledge, perceptions and practices) regarding the performed interventions was administered to the 313 households (70 malaria-affected and 243 malaria-unaffected) that had respondents aged ≥18 years of both genders. In the univariate and multivariate analyses, only 246 (78.6%) MV respondents (62 malaria-affected and 184 malaria-unaffected) were analyzed to determine the predictors for risk (morbidity). Results The majority (70%) of households were covered by IRS. For a combination of ITNs/LLINs, there were 74% of malaria-affected households covered and 46% of malaria-unaffected households. In a logistic regression analysis using odds ratios (aORs) adjusted on the variables and a 95% confidence interval (CI), malaria affecting MVs was associated with daily worker (i.e., earning daily income by normally practicing laborious activities mostly in agriculture such as rubber tapping and rubber sheet processing at the smallholdings of rubber plantations) (aOR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.1-7.4), low-moderate level of malaria knowledge (aOR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1

  14. Daily values flow comparison and estimates using program HYCOMP, version 1.0

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanders, Curtis L.

    2002-01-01

    A method used by the U.S. Geological Survey for quality control in computing daily value flow records is to compare hydrographs of computed flows at a station under review to hydrographs of computed flows at a selected index station. The hydrographs are placed on top of each other (as hydrograph overlays) on a light table, compared, and missing daily flow data estimated. This method, however, is subjective and can produce inconsistent results, because hydrographers can differ when calculating acceptable limits of deviation between observed and estimated flows. Selection of appropriate index stations also is judgemental, giving no consideration to the mathematical correlation between the review station and the index station(s). To address the limitation of the hydrograph overlay method, a set of software programs, written in the SAS macrolanguage, was developed and designated Program HYDCOMP. The program automatically selects statistically comparable index stations by correlation and regression, and performs hydrographic comparisons and estimates of missing data by regressing daily mean flows at the review station against -8 to +8 lagged flows at one or two index stations and day-of-week. Another advantage that HYDCOMP has over the graphical method is that estimated flows, the criteria for determining the quality of the data, and the selection of index stations are determined statistically, and are reproducible from one user to another. HYDCOMP will load the most-correlated index stations into another file containing the ?best index stations,? but will not overwrite stations already in the file. A knowledgeable user should delete unsuitable index stations from this file based on standard error of estimate, hydrologic similarity of candidate index stations to the review station, and knowledge of the individual station characteristics. Also, the user can add index stations not selected by HYDCOMP, if desired. Once the file of best-index stations is created, a user may

  15. Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Pollock, K.H.; Therres, Glenn D.

    2001-01-01

    Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

  16. Histone as future drug target for malaria.

    PubMed

    Rawat, D S; Lumb, V; Sharma, Y D; Pasha, S T; Singh, G

    2007-06-01

    Malaria continues to be a major cause of mortality and morbidity in tropical countries and affecting around 100 countries of the world. As per WHO estimates, 300-500 million are being infected and 1-3 million deaths annually due to malaria. With the emerging knowledge about genome sequence of all the three counterparts involved in the disease of malaria, the parasite Plasmodium, vector Anopheles and host Homo sapien have helped the scientists to understand interactions between them. Simultaneous advancement in technology further improves the prospects to discover new targets for vaccines and drugs. Though the malaria vaccine is still far away in this situation there is need to develop a potent and affordable drug(s). Histones are the key protein of chromatin and play an important role in DNA packaging, replication and gene expression. They also show frequent post-translation modifications. The specific combinations of these posttranslational modifications are thought to alter chromatin structure by forming epigenetic bar codes that specify either transient or heritable patterns of genome function. Chromatin regulators and upstream pathways are therefore seen as promising targets for development of therapeutic drugs.

  17. Malaria transmission, infection, and disease at three sites with varied transmission intensity in Uganda: implications for malaria control.

    PubMed

    Kamya, Moses R; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Wanzira, Humphrey; Katureebe, Agaba; Barusya, Chris; Kigozi, Simon P; Kilama, Maxwell; Tatem, Andrew J; Rosenthal, Philip J; Drakeley, Chris; Lindsay, Steve W; Staedke, Sarah G; Smith, David L; Greenhouse, Bryan; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-05-01

    The intensification of control interventions has led to marked reductions in malaria burden in some settings, but not others. To provide a comprehensive description of malaria epidemiology in Uganda, we conducted surveillance studies over 24 months in 100 houses randomly selected from each of three subcounties: Walukuba (peri-urban), Kihihi (rural), and Nagongera (rural). Annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) was estimated from monthly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap mosquito collections. Children aged 0.5-10 years were provided long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and followed for measures of parasite prevalence, anemia and malaria incidence. Estimates of aEIR were 2.8, 32.0, and 310 infectious bites per year, and estimates of parasite prevalence 7.4%, 9.3%, and 28.7% for Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera, respectively. Over the 2-year study, malaria incidence per person-years decreased in Walukuba (0.51 versus 0.31, P = 0.001) and increased in Kihihi (0.97 versus 1.93, P < 0.001) and Nagongera (2.33 versus 3.30, P < 0.001). Of 2,582 episodes of malaria, only 8 (0.3%) met criteria for severe disease. The prevalence of anemia was low and not associated with transmission intensity. In our cohorts, where LLINs and prompt effective treatment were provided, the risk of complicated malaria and anemia was extremely low. However, malaria incidence was high and increased over time at the two rural sites, suggesting improved community-wide coverage of LLIN and additional malaria control interventions are needed in Uganda.

  18. Estimation of the break-even point for smoking cessation programs in pregnancy.

    PubMed Central

    Shipp, M; Croughan-Minihane, M S; Petitti, D B; Washington, A E

    1992-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Successful programs to help pregnant women quit smoking have been developed and evaluated, but formal smoking cessation programs are not a part of care at most prenatal sites. The cost of such programs may be an issue. Considering the costs of adverse maternal and infant outcomes resulting from smoking, we estimated there would be an amount of money a prenatal program could invest in smoking cessation and still "break even" economically. METHODS. A model was developed and published data, along with 1989 hospital charge data, were used to arrive at a break-even point for smoking cessation programs in pregnancy. RESULTS. Using overall United States data, we arrived at a break-even cost of $32 per pregnant woman. When these data were varied to fit specific US populations, the break-even costs varied from $10 to $237, with the incidence of preterm low birth weight having the most impact on the cost. CONCLUSIONS. It may be advisable to invest greater amounts of money in a prenatal smoking cessation program for some populations. However, for every population there is an amount that can be invested while still breaking even. PMID:1536354

  19. Knowledge, attitudes and practices of malaria in Colombia

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Although Colombia has witnessed an important decrease in malaria transmission, the disease remains a public health problem with an estimated ~10 million people currently living in areas with malaria risk and ~61,000 cases reported in 2012. This study aimed to determine and compare the level of knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) about malaria in three endemic communities of Colombia to provide the knowledge framework for development of new intervention strategies for malaria elimination. Methods A cross-sectional KAP survey was conducted in the municipalities of Tierralta, Buenaventura and Tumaco, categorized according to high risk (HR) and moderate risk (MR) based on the annual parasite index (API). Surveys were managed using REDCap and analysed using MATLAB and GraphPad Prism. Results A total of 267 residents, mostly women (74%) were surveyed. Although no differences were observed on the knowledge of classical malaria symptoms between HR and MR regions, significant differences were found in knowledge and attitudes about transmission mechanisms, anti-malarial use and malaria diagnosis. Most responders in both regions (93.5% in MR, and 94.3% in HR areas) indicated use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to protect themselves from malaria, and 75.5% of responders in HR indicated they did nothing to prevent malaria transmission outdoors. Despite a high level of knowledge in the study regions, significant gaps persisted relating to practices. Self-medication and poor adherence to treatment, as well as lack of both indoor and outdoor vector control measures, were significantly associated with higher malaria risk. Conclusions Although significant efforts are currently being made by the Ministry of Health to use community education as one of the main components of the control strategy, these generic education programmes may not be applicable to all endemic regions of Colombia given the substantial geographic, ethnic and cultural diversity. PMID:24885909

  20. Malaria: Biology and Disease.

    PubMed

    Cowman, Alan F; Healer, Julie; Marapana, Danushka; Marsh, Kevin

    2016-10-20

    Malaria has been a major global health problem of humans through history and is a leading cause of death and disease across many tropical and subtropical countries. Over the last fifteen years renewed efforts at control have reduced the prevalence of malaria by over half, raising the prospect that elimination and perhaps eradication may be a long-term possibility. Achievement of this goal requires the development of new tools including novel antimalarial drugs and more efficacious vaccines as well as an increased understanding of the disease and biology of the parasite. This has catalyzed a major effort resulting in development and regulatory approval of the first vaccine against malaria (RTS,S/AS01) as well as identification of novel drug targets and antimalarial compounds, some of which are in human clinical trials.

  1. ANALOG: a program for estimating paleoclimate parameters using the method of modern analogs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweitzer, Peter N.

    1994-01-01

    modern samples, the modern analogs of the fossil sample. This report describes how to use the program ANALOG to carry out the method of modern analogs. It is assumed that the user has faunal census estimates of one or more fossil samples, and one or more sets of faunal data from modern samples. Furthermore, the user must understand the taxonomic categories represented in the data sets, and be able to recognize taxa that are or may be considered equivalent in the analysis. ANALOG provides the user with flexibility in input data format, output data content, and choice of distance measure, and allows the user to determine which taxa from each modern and fossil data file are compared. Most of the memory required by the program is allocated dynamically, so that, on systems that permit program segments to grow, the program consumes only as many system resources as are needed to accomplish its task.

  2. Imported malaria in Kuwait.

    PubMed

    Hira, P R; Behbehani, K; Al-Kandari, S

    1985-01-01

    The number of imported malaria cases in Kuwait rose from 87 in 1980 to 504 in 1983, an increase of 579%. The continued resurgence of malaria in endemic zones, improved diagnostic techniques and a heightened awareness of imported malaria have contributed to the increase in the number of microscopically proved cases. Thick blood films fixed in acetone and stained in Giemsa proved a rapid method of diagnosis; species identification on the basis of a thin film on the same slide was performed with ease. Malaria was acquired in 38 countries. Most patients were young male adults. Most of the cases were due to Plasmodium vivax originating from India, although an increasing number of P. falciparum cases are also now being diagnosed from there. P. falciparum infections were evenly distributed throughout the year and most cases presented within 14 days of their arrival in the country. The highest number of P. vivax cases were diagnosed between May and October, when heat stress might have been a factor in precipitating a clinical attack of an infection previously acquired in the endemic zone. Attention is drawn to the importance of delayed attacks of P. vivax and, in semi-immunes, of P. falciparum. The time interval involved in establishing a history of "recent" travel in clinically suspected cases of malaria needs to be more clearly defined in each geographical area. Cases of induced malaria due to transfusion, accidental and congenital infections were identified. The fatality rate due to P. falciparum infections was low. In terms of the risk of renewed transmission, Kuwait may be considered a vulnerable area.

  3. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of March 2013 meeting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met in Geneva, Switzerland from 13 to 15 March, 2013. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions included: a review of the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapy in Guyana and Suriname; the outcomes from a consultation on non-malaria febrile illness; the outcomes from the second meeting of the Evidence Review Group on malaria burden estimation; an update on the review of the WHO Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria; an update regarding progress on the constitution of the vector control Technical Expert Group; updates on the RTS, S/AS01 vaccine and the malaria vaccine technology roadmap; financing and resource allocation for malaria control; malaria surveillance and the need for a surveillance, monitoring and evaluation Technical Expert Group; criteria and classification related to malaria elimination; the next meeting of the Evidence Review Group on Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnancy; an update on the soon-to-be launched Elimination Scenario Planning Tool; and an update on the process for the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria Control and Elimination (2016–2025). Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:23787092

  4. Metabolomics and malaria biology

    PubMed Central

    Lakshmanan, Viswanathan; Rhee, Kyu Y.; Daily, Johanna P.

    2010-01-01

    Metabolomics has ushered in a novel and multi-disciplinary realm in biological research. It has provided researchers with a platform to combine powerful biochemical, statistical, computational, and bioinformatics techniques to delve into the mysteries of biology and disease. The application of metabolomics to study malaria parasites represents a major advance in our approach towards gaining a more comprehensive perspective on parasite biology and disease etiology. This review attempts to highlight some of the important aspects of the field of metabolomics, and its ongoing and potential future applications to malaria research. PMID:20970461

  5. Research toward Malaria Vaccines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Louis H.; Howard, Russell J.; Carter, Richard; Good, Michael F.; Nussenzweig, Victor; Nussenzweig, Ruth S.

    1986-12-01

    Malaria exacts a toll of disease to people in the Tropics that seems incomprehensible to those only familiar with medicine and human health in the developed world. The methods of molecular biology, immunology, and cell biology are now being used to develop an antimalarial vaccine. The Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria have many stages in their life cycle. Each stage is antigenically distinct and potentially could be interrupted by different vaccines. However, achieving complete protection by vaccination may require a better understanding of the complexities of B- and T-cell priming in natural infections and the development of an appropriate adjuvant for use in humans.

  6. Malaria Related Perceptions, Care Seeking after Onset of Fever and Anti-Malarial Drug Use in Malaria Endemic Settings of Southwest Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Birhanu, Zewdie; Abebe, Lakew; Sudhakar, Morankar; Dissanayake, Gunawardena; Yihdego, Yemane Ye-ebiyo; Alemayehu, Guda; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw

    2016-01-01

    Background Prompt care seeking and appropriate use of anti-malarial drugs are critical components of malaria prevention and control. This study assessed malaria related perceptions, care seeking behavior and anti-malarial drug use in malaria endemic settings of Ethiopia. Methods Data were generated from a community based cross-sectional study conducted among 798 households during January 2014 as part of a larger household behavioral study in three malaria endemic districts of Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed using SPSS 17.0 and STATA 12.0. Results In this study, only 76.1% of the respondents associated malaria to mosquito bite, and incorrect beliefs and perceptions were noted. Despite moderate level of knowledge (estimated mean = 62.2, Std Err = 0.7, 95% CI: 60.6–63.8%), quite high favorable attitude (overall estimated mean = 91.5, Std Err = 0.6, 95% CI: 90.1–92.9%) were recorded towards malaria preventive measures. The mean attitude score for prompt care seeking, appropriate use of anti-malarial drugs, LLIN use and Indoor Residual Spray acceptance was 98.5 (Std Err = 0.4, 95% CI:97.5–99.4), 92.7 (Std Err = 0.6 95% CI:91.5–93.9), 88.8 (Std Err = 0.5, 95% CI:85.5–92.1) and 86.5 (Std Err = 1.2, 95% CI: 83.9–89.1), respectively. The prevalence of fever was 2.9% (116/4107) and of the study participants with fever, 71.9% (95% CI: 65.5–78.3%) sought care and all of them consulted formal health care system. However, only 17 (19.8%) sought care within 24 hours after onset of fever. The frequency of care seeking was higher (77.8%, n = 21/27) and more prompt (28.6%, 6/21) for children under five as compared to old age groups despite it was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). However, higher median time of seeking first care was observed among Muslims and people who did not attend school (p < 0.05). Of those who used anti-malarial drugs, 9.1% indicated that they used it inappropriately

  7. The cost of crime to society: new crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation.

    PubMed

    McCollister, Kathryn E; French, Michael T; Fang, Hai

    2010-04-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.

  8. Information Systems to Support Surveillance for Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ohrt, Colin; Roberts, Kathryn W.; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Lee, Bruce Y.; Gosling, Roly D.

    2015-01-01

    Robust and responsive surveillance systems are critical for malaria elimination. The ideal information system that supports malaria elimination includes: rapid and complete case reporting, incorporation of related data, such as census or health survey information, central data storage and management, automated and expert data analysis, and customized outputs and feedback that lead to timely and targeted responses. Spatial information enhances such a system, ensuring cases are tracked and mapped over time. Data sharing and coordination across borders are vital and new technologies can improve data speed, accuracy, and quality. Parts of this ideal information system exist and are in use, but have yet to be linked together coherently. Malaria elimination programs should support the implementation and refinement of information systems to support surveillance and response and ensure political and financial commitment to maintain the systems and the human resources needed to run them. National malaria programs should strive to improve the access and utility of these information systems and establish cross-border data sharing mechanisms through the use of standard indicators for malaria surveillance. Ultimately, investment in the information technologies that support a timely and targeted surveillance and response system is essential for malaria elimination. PMID:26013378

  9. Information systems to support surveillance for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ohrt, Colin; Roberts, Kathryn W; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Lee, Bruce Y; Gosling, Roly D

    2015-07-01

    Robust and responsive surveillance systems are critical for malaria elimination. The ideal information system that supports malaria elimination includes: rapid and complete case reporting, incorporation of related data, such as census or health survey information, central data storage and management, automated and expert data analysis, and customized outputs and feedback that lead to timely and targeted responses. Spatial information enhances such a system, ensuring cases are tracked and mapped over time. Data sharing and coordination across borders are vital and new technologies can improve data speed, accuracy, and quality. Parts of this ideal information system exist and are in use, but have yet to be linked together coherently. Malaria elimination programs should support the implementation and refinement of information systems to support surveillance and response and ensure political and financial commitment to maintain the systems and the human resources needed to run them. National malaria programs should strive to improve the access and utility of these information systems and establish cross-border data sharing mechanisms through the use of standard indicators for malaria surveillance. Ultimately, investment in the information technologies that support a timely and targeted surveillance and response system is essential for malaria elimination.

  10. Evaluating the usefulness of paratransgenesis for malaria control.

    PubMed

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2016-07-01

    Malaria is a serious global health problem which is especially devastating to the developing world. Most malaria control programs use insecticides for controlling mosquito populations. Large scale usage of these insecticides exerts massive selection pressure on mosquitoes resulting in insecticide resistant mosquito breeds. Thus, developing alternative strategies are crucial for sustainable malaria control. Here, we explore the usefulness of an alternative strategy, paratransgenesis: the introduction of genetically engineered plasmodium killing bacteria inside the mosquito gut. The genetically modified bacterial culture is housed in cotton balls dipped in a sugar solution (sugar bait) and they enter a mosquito's midgut when it drinks from a sugar bait. We study scenarios where vectors and hosts mix homogeneously as well as heterogeneously and calculate the amount of baits required to prevent a malaria outbreak. Given the baits are attractive, we show that the basic reproductive number drops rapidly with the increase in bait density. Furthermore, we propose a targeted bait distribution strategy for minimizing the reproductive number for the heterogeneous case. Our results can prove to be useful for designing future experiments and field trials of alternative malaria control mechanisms and they also have implications on the development of malaria control programs.

  11. Quantifying effect of geographic location on epidemiology of Plasmodium vivax malaria.

    PubMed

    Lover, Andrew A; Coker, Richard J

    2013-07-01

    Recent autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria in previously malaria-free temperate regions has generated renewed interest in the epidemiology of this disease. Accurate estimates of the incubation period and time to relapse are required for effective malaria surveillance; however, this information is currently lacking. By using historical data from experimental human infections with diverse P. vivax strains, survival analysis models were used to obtain quantitative estimates of the incubation period and time to first relapse for P. vivax malaria in broad geographic regions. Results show that Eurasian strains from temperate regions have longer incubation periods, and Western Hemisphere strains from tropical and temperate regions have longer times to relapse compared with Eastern Hemisphere strains. The diversity in these estimates of key epidemiologic parameters for P. vivax supports the need for elucidating local epidemiology to inform clinical follow-up and to build an evidence base toward global elimination of malaria.

  12. Investigating the Important Correlates of Maternal Education and Childhood Malaria Infections

    PubMed Central

    Njau, Joseph D.; Stephenson, Rob; Menon, Manoj P.; Kachur, S. Patrick; McFarland, Deborah A.

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between maternal education and child health has intrigued researchers for decades. This study explored the interaction between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. Cross-sectional survey data from three African countries were used. Descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were completed in line with identified correlates. Marginal effects and Oaxaca decomposition analysis on maternal education and childhood malaria infection were also estimated. Children with mothers whose education level was beyond primary school were 4.7% less likely to be malaria-positive (P < 0.001). The Oaxaca decomposition analysis exhibited an 8% gap in childhood malaria infection for educated and uneducated mothers. Over 60% of the gap was explained by differences in household wealth (26%), household place of domicile (21%), malaria transmission intensities (14%), and media exposure (12%). All other correlates accounted for only 27%. The full adjusted model showed a robust and significant relationship between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. PMID:25002302

  13. [Challenges of the medical entomology for the surveillance in public health in Colombia: reflections on the state of malaria].

    PubMed

    Brochero, Helena; Quiñones, Martha L

    2008-03-01

    The relevance of the medical entomology was considered with respect to current framework of malaria control programs in Colombia. A responsibility is indicated for balancing control efforts along with providing information on the malaria vectors. This knowledge must be acquired in order to focus the related activities that are required. The malaria control program must be based on results of local entomological surveillance, and the data must be in a form to give practical answers to questions regarding the control program. Difficulties in undertaking the required studies are described, particularly regarding the taxonomic identification of Colombian Anopheles in Colombia and which of these can be incriminated as malaria vectors.

  14. STEP and STEPSPL: Computer programs for aerodynamic model structure determination and parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batterson, J. G.

    1986-01-01

    The successful parametric modeling of the aerodynamics for an airplane operating at high angles of attack or sideslip is performed in two phases. First the aerodynamic model structure must be determined and second the associated aerodynamic parameters (stability and control derivatives) must be estimated for that model. The purpose of this paper is to document two versions of a stepwise regression computer program which were developed for the determination of airplane aerodynamic model structure and to provide two examples of their use on computer generated data. References are provided for the application of the programs to real flight data. The two computer programs that are the subject of this report, STEP and STEPSPL, are written in FORTRAN IV (ANSI l966) compatible with a CDC FTN4 compiler. Both programs are adaptations of a standard forward stepwise regression algorithm. The purpose of the adaptation is to facilitate the selection of a adequate mathematical model of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of an airplane from flight test data. The major difference between STEP and STEPSPL is in the basis for the model. The basis for the model in STEP is the standard polynomial Taylor's series expansion of the aerodynamic function about some steady-state trim condition. Program STEPSPL utilizes a set of spline basis functions.

  15. Malaria Situation in an Endemic Area, Southeastern Iran

    PubMed Central

    Fekri, Sajjad; Vatandoost, Hassan; Daryanavard, Ali; Shahi, Mehran; Safari, Reza; Raeisi, Ahmad; Omar, Abdiqani Sheikh; Sharif, Mohammad; Azizi, Abdollah; Ali, Aref Ahmad; Nasser, Aboud; Hasaballah, Ibrahim; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali

    2014-01-01

    Background: Malaria is an endemic infectious disease in southeastern parts of Iran. Despite years of efforts and intervention programs against malaria, transmission still occurs in Jask County. Methods: The epidemiological perspective of malaria in Jask County was conducted by gathering data from Jask County health center, during 2006–2010. A knowledge, attitude and practice study was also carried out. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS ver. 11.5. Results: A total of 2875 malaria cases were recorded, with highest and lowest numbers in 2007 and 2010, respectively. The number of cases had a decreasing trend from 1022 cases in 2006 to 114 cases in 2010. The main causative parasitic agent was Plasmodium vivax. Blood examination rate and slide positive rate were also decreased from 39.5% and 4.3% in 2006 to 15.6% and 1.4% in 2010, respectively. Most of people interviewed in the KAP study had a good knowledge about malaria transmission and symptoms but their use of the bed net for prevention was low (35%). Conclusion: Malaria incidence had significant reduction during the study years. The main reason for this may be due to changing environmental condition for Anopheline breeding and survival because of drought. Another reason may be integration of vector management by using long lasting insecticide treated bed nets, active case detection and treatment by implementation of mobile teams and increasing in financial sources of malaria control program. Knowledge, attitude and practice of people were good in malaria control and prevention, but needs to do more activities for health education and awareness. PMID:25629068

  16. RENEW - MAINTENANCE ESTIMATION SIMULATION MODEL FOR SPACE STATION FREEDOM PROGRAM, VERSION 3.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bream, B. L.

    1994-01-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) Work Package 4 at NASA Lewis Research Center. This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) data as well as logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. RENEW uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance than steady-state average calculations since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values, and generates graphs of both failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences. The average demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in data tables. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval, and the parameters may be viewed and changed. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen. RENEW is written in BASIC and assembly language for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS. Microsoft's QuickBasic Professional Development System and Crescent Software's QuickPak Professional are required to compile the source code. A CGA or VGA monitor is required. A sample executable is provided on the distribution media. The standard distribution medium for this program is one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette

  17. The Long-Term Economic Impact of in Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barreca, Alan I.

    2010-01-01

    I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential…

  18. Assessment of Burden of Malaria in Gwanda District, Zimbabwe, Using the Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    PubMed

    Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2016-02-22

    Malaria is one of the highest contributors to morbidity and mortality in Zimbabwe. However, there is paucity of knowledge regarding disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of burden of malaria in affected communities. The DALYs metric was used to assess the burden of malaria in Gwanda District with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the impact of disease on affected communities. Data was collected from health facility malaria registers and the District Health Information System (DHIS) to estimate DALYs at household and district levels respectively. The household DALYs included 130 malaria cases from 2013 to 2015 while the DALYs for the district included 719 confirmed malaria cases from 2011 to 2015. Households lost a total of 153.89 DALYs with the majority of the disease burden (65.55%) occurring in the most economically productive age group (15-45 years) with a mean loss of 1.18 DALYs per malaria case. At district level, 251.09 DALYs were lost due to malaria and the calculated average district DALY rate for 2011-2015 was 36.29 DALYs/100,000 persons per year. It is important to estimate malaria burden to assist policy makers in making informed decisions when channelling resources for control and prevention of the disease.

  19. Dynamics of positional warfare malaria: Finland and Korea compared

    PubMed Central

    Huldén, Lena; Huldén, Larry

    2008-01-01

    Background A sudden outbreak of vivax malaria among Finnish troops in SE-Finland and along the front line in Hanko peninsula in the southwest occurred in 1941 during World War II. The common explanation has been an invasion of infective Anopheles mosquitoes from the Russian troops crossing the front line between Finland and Soviet Union. A revised explanation is presented based on recent studies of Finnish malaria. Methods The exact start of the epidemic and the phenology of malaria cases among the Finnish soldiers were reanalyzed. The results were compared with the declining malaria in Finland. A comparison with a corresponding situation starting in the 1990's in Korea was performed. Results and discussion The malaria cases occurred in July in 1941 when it was by far too early for infective mosquitoes to be present. The first Anopheles mosquitoes hatched at about the same time as the first malaria cases were observed among the Finnish soldiers. It takes about 3 – 6 weeks for the completion of the sporogony in Finland. The new explanation is that soldiers in war conditions were suddenly exposed to uninfected mosquitoes and those who still were carriers of hypnozoites developed relapses triggered by these mosquitoes. It is estimated that about 0.5% of the Finnish population still were carriers of hypnozoites in the 1940's. A corresponding outbreak of vivax malaria in Korea in the 1990's is similarly interpreted as relapses from activated hypnozoites among Korean soldiers. The significance of the mosquito induced relapses is emphasized by two benefits for the Plasmodium. There is a synchronous increase of gametocytes when new mosquitoes emerge. It also enables meiotic recombination between different strains of the Plasmodium. Conclusion The malaria peak during the positional warfare in the 1940's was a short outbreak during the last phase of declining indigenous malaria in Finland. The activation of hypnozoites among a large number of soldiers and subsequent

  20. Analytical solution and computer program (FAST) to estimate fluid fluxes from subsurface temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurylyk, Barret L.; Irvine, Dylan J.

    2016-02-01

    This study details the derivation and application of a new analytical solution to the one-dimensional, transient conduction-advection equation that is applied to trace vertical subsurface fluid fluxes. The solution employs a flexible initial condition that allows for nonlinear temperature-depth profiles, providing a key improvement over most previous solutions. The boundary condition is composed of any number of superimposed step changes in surface temperature, and thus it accommodates intermittent warming and cooling periods due to long-term changes in climate or land cover. The solution is verified using an established numerical model of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport. A new computer program FAST (Flexible Analytical Solution using Temperature) is also presented to facilitate the inversion of this analytical solution to estimate vertical groundwater flow. The program requires surface temperature history (which can be estimated from historic climate data), subsurface thermal properties, a present-day temperature-depth profile, and reasonable initial conditions. FAST is written in the Python computing language and can be run using a free graphical user interface. Herein, we demonstrate the utility of the analytical solution and FAST using measured subsurface temperature and climate data from the Sendia Plain, Japan. Results from these illustrative examples highlight the influence of the chosen initial and boundary conditions on estimated vertical flow rates.

  1. Modeling of Space Radiation Exposure Estimation Program for Pilots, Crew and Passengers on Commercial Flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Junga; Dokgo, Kyunghwan; Choi, Enjin; Park, Jong-Sun; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Kim, Hang-Pyo

    2014-03-01

    There has been a rapid increase of the concern on the space radiation effect on pilots, crew and passengers at the commercial aircraft altitude (~ 10 km) recently. It is because domestic airline companies, Korean Air and Asiana Airlines have just begun operating the polar routes over the North Pole since 2006 and 2009 respectively. CARI-6 and CARI-6M are commonly used space radiation estimation programs which are provided officially by the U.S. federal aviation administration (FAA). In this paper, the route doses and the annual radiation doses for Korean pilots and cabin crew were estimated by using CARI-6M based on 2012 flight records. Also the modeling concept was developed for our own space radiation estimation program which is composed of GEANT4 and NRLMSIS00 models. The GEANT4 model is used to trace the incident particle transports in the atmosphere and the NRLMSIS00 model is used to get the background atmospheric densities of various neutral atoms at the aircraft altitude. Also presented are the results of simple integration tests of those models and the plan to include the space weather variations through the solar proton event (SPE) prediction model such as UMASEP and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) prediction model such as Badhwar-O¡¯Neill 2010.

  2. 2007 Status Report: Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)VoluntaryLabeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Sanchez, Marla; Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Homan,Gregory K.

    2007-03-23

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2006, whatwe expect in 2007, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2025. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  3. 2006 Status Report Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)Voluntary Labeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Sanchez, Marla; Homan,Gregory K.

    2006-03-07

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2005, whatwe expect in 2006, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2006 to 2015 and 2006 to 2025. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  4. 2005 Status Report Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)Voluntary Labeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Sanchez, Marla

    2006-03-07

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Star labels exist for more thanforty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2004, whatwe expect in 2005, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2005 to 2010 and 2005 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  5. 2004 status report: Savings estimates for the Energy Star(R)voluntarylabeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

    2004-03-09

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2003, whatwe expect in 2004, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2004 to 2010 and 2004 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  6. Shifting from presumptive to test-based management of malaria - technical basis and implications for malaria control in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Baiden, F; Malm, K; Bart-Plange, C; Hodgson, A; Chandramohan, D; Webster, J; Owusu-Agyei, S

    2014-06-01

    The presumptive approach was the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended to the management of malaria for many years and this was incorporated into syndromic guidelines such as the Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses (IMCI). In early 2010 however, WHO issued revised treatment guidelines that call for a shift from the presumptive to the test-based approach. Practically, this implies that in all suspected cases, the diagnosis of uncomplicated malaria should be confirmed using rapid test before treatment is initiated. This revision effectively brings to an end an era of clinical practice that span several years. Its implementation has important implications for the health systems in malaria-endemic countries. On the basis of research in Ghana and other countries, and evidence from program work, the Ghana National Malaria Control Program has issued revised national treatment guidelines that call for implementation of test-based management of malaria in all cases, and across all age groups. This article reviews the evidence and the technical basis for the shift to test-based management and examines the implications for malaria control in Ghana.

  7. The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world’s malaria burden. PMID:15172341

  8. The incidence of malaria in travellers to South-East Asia: is local malaria transmission a useful risk indicator?

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The presence of ongoing local malaria transmission, identified though local surveillance and reported to regional WHO offices, by S-E Asian countries, forms the basis of national and international chemoprophylaxis recommendations in western countries. The study was designed to examine whether the strategy of using malaria transmission in a local population was an accurate estimate of the malaria threat faced by travellers and a correlate of malaria in returning travellers. Methods Malaria endemicity was described from distribution and intensity in the local populations of ten S-E Asian destination countries over the period 2003-2008 from regionally reported cases to WHO offices. Travel acquired malaria was collated from malaria surveillance reports from the USA and 12 European countries over the same period. The numbers of travellers visiting the destination countries was based on immigration and tourism statistics collected on entry of tourists to the destination countries. Results In the destination countries, mean malaria rates in endemic countries ranged between 0.01 in Korea to 4:1000 population per year in Lao PDR, with higher regional rates in a number of countries. Malaria cases imported into the 13 countries declined by 47% from 140 cases in 2003 to 66 in 2008. A total of 608 cases (27.3% Plasmodium falciparum (Pf)) were reported over the six years, the largest number acquired in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Four countries had an incidence > 1 case per 100,000 traveller visits; Burma (Myanmar), Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos (range 1 to 11.8-case per 100,000 visits). The remaining six countries rates were < 1 case per 100,000 visits. The number of visitors arriving from source countries increased by 60% from 8.5 Million to 13.6 million over the 6 years. Conclusion The intensity of malaria transmission particularly sub-national activity did not correlate with the risk of travellers acquiring malaria in the large numbers of arriving visitors. It

  9. Coadaptation and malaria control.

    PubMed

    Tosta, Carlos Eduardo

    2007-06-01

    Malaria emerges from a disequilibrium of the system 'human-plasmodium-mosquito' (HPM). If the equilibrium is maintained, malaria does not ensue and the result is asymptomatic plasmodium infection. The relationships among the components of the system involve coadaptive linkages that lead to equilibrium. A vast body of evidence supports this assumption, including the strategies involved in the relationships between plasmodium and human and mosquito immune systems, and the emergence of resistance of plasmodia to antimalarial drugs and of mosquitoes to insecticides. Coadaptive strategies for malaria control are based on the following principles: (1) the system HPM is composed of three highly complex and dynamic components, whose interplay involves coadaptive linkages that tend to maintain the equilibrium of the system; (2) human and mosquito immune systems play a central role in the coadaptive interplay with plasmodium, and hence, in the maintenance of the system's equilibrium; the under- or overfunction of human immune system may result in malaria and influence its severity; (3) coadaptation depends on genetic and epigenetic phenomena occurring at the interfaces of the components of the system, and may involve exchange of infectrons (genes or gene fragments) between the partners; (4) plasmodia and mosquitoes have been submitted to selective pressures, leading to adaptation, for an extremely long while and are, therefore, endowed with the capacity to circumvent both natural (immunity) and artificial (drugs, insecticides, vaccines) measures aiming at destroying them; (5) since malaria represents disequilibrium of the system HPM, its control should aim at maintaining or restoring this equilibrium; (6) the disequilibrium of integrated systems involves the disequilibrium of their components, therefore the maintenance or restoration of the system's equilibrium depend on the adoption of integrated and coordinated measures acting on all components, that means, panadaptive

  10. Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohammadi, Kourosh; Eslami, H. R.; Kahawita, Rene

    2006-11-01

    SummaryRiver flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several methods have been developed for this purpose and one of the most famous techniques is the Auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model. In the research reported here, the goal was to minimize the error for a specific season of the year as well as for the complete series. Goal programming (GP) was used to estimate the ARMA model parameters. Shaloo Bridge station on the Karun River with 68 years of observed stream flow data was selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results when compared with the usual method of maximum likelihood estimation were favorable with respect to the new proposed algorithm.

  11. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  12. Optimal Input Design for Aircraft Parameter Estimation using Dynamic Programming Principles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

    1990-01-01

    A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.

  13. Orbital Spacecraft Consumables Resupply System (OSCRS). Volume 3: Program Cost Estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, D. L.

    1986-01-01

    A cost analysis for the design, development, qualification, and production of the monopropellant and bipropellant Orbital Spacecraft Consumable Resupply System (OSCRS) tankers, their associated avionics located in the Orbiter payload bay, and the unique ground support equipment (GSE) and airborne support equipment (ASE) required to support operations is presented. Monopropellant resupply for the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) in calendar year 1991 is the first defined resupply mission with bipropellant resupply missions expected in the early to mid 1990's. The monopropellant program estimate also includes contractor costs associated with operations support through the first GRO resupply mission.

  14. Optimal input design for aircraft parameter estimation using dynamic programming principles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, Vladislav; Morelli, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.

  15. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study has been an eighteen-month study effort to develop and analyze concepts for a family of vehicles to evolve from an initial STV system into a Lunar Transportation System (LTS) for use with the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV). The study defined vehicle configurations, facility concepts, and ground and flight operations concepts. This volume reports the program cost estimates results for this portion of the study. The STV Reference Concept described within this document provides a complete LTS system that performs both cargo and piloted Lunar missions.

  16. Digital program for solving the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation problem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geyser, L. C.; Lehtinen, B.

    1975-01-01

    A computer program is described which solves the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation (LSOCE) problem by using a time-domain formulation. The LSOCE problem is defined as that of designing controls for a linear time-invariant system which is disturbed by white noise in such a way as to minimize a performance index which is quadratic in state and control variables. The LSOCE problem and solution are outlined; brief descriptions are given of the solution algorithms, and complete descriptions of each subroutine, including usage information and digital listings, are provided. A test case is included, as well as information on the IBM 7090-7094 DCS time and storage requirements.

  17. READSCAN: a fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    PubMed Central

    Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: arnab.pain@kaust.edu.sa or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23193222

  18. Nanomedicine against malaria.

    PubMed

    Urbán, Patricia; Fernàndez-Busquets, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is arguably one of the main medical concerns worldwide because of the numbers of people affected, the severity of the disease and the complexity of the life cycle of its causative agent, the protist Plasmodium sp. The clinical, social and economic burden of malaria has led for the last 100 years to several waves of serious efforts to reach its control and eventual eradication, without success to this day. With the advent of nanoscience, renewed hopes have appeared of finally obtaining the long sought-after magic bullet against malaria in the form of a nanovector for the targeted delivery of antimalarial drugs exclusively to Plasmodium-infected cells. Different types of encapsulating structure, targeting molecule, and antimalarial compound will be discussed for the assembly of Trojan horse nanocapsules capable of targeting with complete specificity diseased cells and of delivering inside them their antimalarial cargo with the objective of eliminating the parasite with a single dose. Nanotechnology can also be applied to the discovery of new antimalarials through single-molecule manipulation approaches for the identification of novel drugs targeting essential molecular components of the parasite. Finally, methods for the diagnosis of malaria can benefit from nanotools applied to the design of microfluidic-based devices for the accurate identification of the parasite's strain, its precise infective load, and the relative content of the different stages of its life cycle, whose knowledge is essential for the administration of adequate therapies. The benefits and drawbacks of these nanosystems will be considered in different possible scenarios, including cost-related issues that might be hampering the development of nanotechnology-based medicines against malaria with the dubious argument that they are too expensive to be used in developing areas.

  19. Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, K.; Wei, H.; Chen, L.; Liu, G.

    2010-12-01

    Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming Keh-Chia Yeha, Hsiao-Ping Weia,d, Li Chenb, and Gin-Rong Liuc a Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. b Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Informatics, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. c Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Tao-Yuan, Taiwan, 320, R.O.C. d National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei County, Taiwan, 231, R.O.C. Abstract This paper proposes an improved multi-run genetic programming (GP) and applies it to predict the rainfall using meteorological satellite data. GP is a well-known evolutionary programming and data mining method, used to automatically discover the complex relationships among nonlinear systems. The main advantage of GP is to optimize appropriate types of function and their associated coefficients simultaneously. This study makes an improvement to enhance escape ability from local optimums during the optimization procedure. The GP continuously runs several times by replacing the terminal nodes at the next run with the best solution at the current run. The current novel model improves GP, obtaining a highly nonlinear mathematical equation to estimate the rainfall. In the case study, this improved GP described above combining with SSM/I satellite data is employed to establish a suitable method for estimating rainfall at sea surface during typhoon periods. These estimated rainfalls are then verified with the data from four rainfall stations located at Peng-Jia-Yu, Don-Gji-Dao, Lan-Yu, and Green Island, which are four small islands around Taiwan. From the results, the improved GP can generate sophisticated and accurate nonlinear mathematical equation through two-run learning procedures which outperforms the traditional multiple linear regression, empirical equations and back-propagated network

  20. Estimating Landholders’ Probability of Participating in a Stewardship Program, and the Implications for Spatial Conservation Priorities

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Vanessa M.; Pressey, Robert L.; Stoeckl, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation. PMID:24892520

  1. Monitoring multiple species: Estimating state variables and exploring the efficacy of a monitoring program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mattfeldt, S.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring programs have the potential to identify population declines and differentiate among the possible cause(s) of these declines. Recent criticisms regarding the design of monitoring programs have highlighted a failure to clearly state objectives and to address detectability and spatial sampling issues. Here, we incorporate these criticisms to design an efficient monitoring program whose goals are to determine environmental factors which influence the current distribution and measure change in distributions over time for a suite of amphibians. In designing the study we (1) specified a priori factors that may relate to occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities and (2) used the data collected (incorporating detectability) to address our scientific questions and adjust our sampling protocols. Our results highlight the role of wetland hydroperiod and other local covariates in the probability of amphibian occupancy. There was a change in overall occupancy probabilities for most species over the first three years of monitoring. Most colonization and extinction estimates were constant over time (years) and space (among wetlands), with one notable exception: local extinction probabilities for Rana clamitans were lower for wetlands with longer hydroperiods. We used information from the target system to generate scenarios of population change and gauge the ability of the current sampling to meet monitoring goals. Our results highlight the limitations of the current sampling design, emphasizing the need for long-term efforts, with periodic re-evaluation of the program in a framework that can inform management decisions.

  2. Tutorials for Africa - Malaria: MedlinePlus

    MedlinePlus

    Tutorials for Africa: Malaria In Uganda, the burden of malaria outranks that of all other diseases. This tutorial includes information about how malaria spreads, the importance of treatment and techniques for ...

  3. Diagnosis and Treatment of Plasmodium vivax Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Baird, J. Kevin; Valecha, Neena; Duparc, Stephan; White, Nicholas J.; Price, Ric N.

    2016-01-01

    The diagnosis and treatment of Plasmodium vivax malaria differs from that of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in fundamentally important ways. This article reviews the guiding principles, practices, and evidence underpinning the diagnosis and treatment of P. vivax malaria. PMID:27708191

  4. Costs analysis of the treatment of imported malaria

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background To document the status of imported malaria infections and estimate the costs of treating of patients hospitalized with the diagnosis of imported malaria in the Slovak Republic during 2003 to 2008. Case study Calculating and comparing the direct and indirect costs of treatment of patients diagnosed with imported malaria (ICD-10: B50 - B54) who used and not used chemoprophylaxis. The target sample included 19 patients diagnosed with imported malaria from 2003 to 2008, with 11 whose treatment did not include chemoprophylaxis and eight whose treatment did. Results The mean direct cost of malaria treatment for patients without chemoprophylaxis was 1,776.0 EUR, and the mean indirect cost 524.2 EUR. In patients with chemoprophylaxis the mean direct cost was 405.6 EUR, and the mean indirect cost 257.4 EUR. Conclusions The analysis confirmed statistically-significant differences between the direct and indirect costs of treatment with and without chemoprophylaxis for patients with imported malaria. PMID:22212246

  5. Pharmacokinetics of quinine in African patients with acute falciparum malaria.

    PubMed

    Babalola, C P; Bolaji, O O; Ogunbona, F A; Sowunmi, A; Walker, O

    1998-06-01

    The pharmacokinetics of quinine were studied in six Nigerian patients during acute uncomplicated falciparum malaria and convalescent periods. An oral dose of 10 mg/kg quinine dihydrochloride administered 8-hourly for 7 days gave parasite and fever clearance times of 36.0 +/- 16.6 h and 18.0 +/- 6.4 h, respectively. From the individual quinine plasma profiles the mean plasma concentration of quinine at the time of parasite clearance was estimated as 4.5 +/- 1.1 micrograms/ml. Plasma quinine levels during malaria rose rapidly reaching a peak around the second and third days and declining thereafter as patients improved clinically. In acute malaria plasma quinine levels were more than two-fold higher than in convalescence; the mean AUC(0-12) in malaria was 37.9 +/- 14.7 micrograms.h/ml compared to 17.9 +/- 8.5 micrograms.h/ml in convalescence. The apparent oral clearance (CL/F) and volume of distribution (Vd/F) during the acute phase of the malaria (1.9 +/- 0.7 ml/min/kg and 1.8 +/- 0.9 l/kg, respectively) were significantly lower than in convalescence (4.5 +/- 2.1 ml/min/kg and 4.2 +/- 3.2 l/kg). The present data suggest that malaria parasites in African patients are still very sensitive to quinine and that the current dosage of quinine is effective for the treatment of acute falciparum malaria in African patients without augmenting therapy with any other drug such as tetracycline or sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine. It also confirms that malaria significantly alters the pharmacokinetics of quinine in humans.

  6. Disrupting Mosquito Reproduction and Parasite Development for Malaria Control

    PubMed Central

    Gabrieli, Paolo; Buckee, Caroline O.; Catteruccia, Flaminia

    2016-01-01

    The control of mosquito populations with insecticide treated bed nets and indoor residual sprays remains the cornerstone of malaria reduction and elimination programs. In light of widespread insecticide resistance in mosquitoes, however, alternative strategies for reducing transmission by the mosquito vector are urgently needed, including the identification of safe compounds that affect vectorial capacity via mechanisms that differ from fast-acting insecticides. Here, we show that compounds targeting steroid hormone signaling disrupt multiple biological processes that are key to the ability of mosquitoes to transmit malaria. When an agonist of the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) is applied to Anopheles gambiae females, which are the dominant malaria mosquito vector in Sub Saharan Africa, it substantially shortens lifespan, prevents insemination and egg production, and significantly blocks Plasmodium falciparum development, three components that are crucial to malaria transmission. Modeling the impact of these effects on Anopheles population dynamics and Plasmodium transmission predicts that disrupting steroid hormone signaling using 20E agonists would affect malaria transmission to a similar extent as insecticides. Manipulating 20E pathways therefore provides a powerful new approach to tackle malaria transmission by the mosquito vector, particularly in areas affected by the spread of insecticide resistance. PMID:27977810

  7. Modelling malaria population structure and its implications for control.

    PubMed

    Buckee, Caroline O; Gupta, Sunetra

    2010-01-01

    Mathematical models of malaria transmission have been used to inform the design of malaria control programs since the mid 20th century, and many of these models have provided useful insights into the complexity of the disease. Among developing countries, however and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, malaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. One of the main difficulties in controlling the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, is its genetic diversity, which confounds attempts to design an effective vaccine. The population structure of P. falciparum remains poorly understood but plays a key role in determining epidemiological patterns of disease and the development of immunity. We discuss the seminal model of malaria transmission developed by Ross and MacDonald, and the modifications that have been made since to include more realism. We show that age profiles of disease and serological data support a theoretical model in which the parasite population is diverse and structured into several antigenic types and highlight the implications of this structure for controlling malaria. Lastly, we discuss the current sequence data on parasite antigen genes that are important for the aquisition of immunity, and the results of a new analysis of P. falciparum population structure at the genomic level.

  8. Malaria Early Warning: The MalarSat project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roca, M.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Martínez, D.; Torrent, M.; Aponte, J.; Nunez, F.; Garcia, J.

    2009-04-01

    Malaria is one of the major public health challenges undermining development in the world. The aim of MalarSat Project is to provide a malaria risks infection maps at global scale using Earth Observation data to support and prevent epidemic episodes. The proposed service for creating malaria risk maps would be critically useful to improve the efficiency in insecticide programs, vaccine campaigns and the logistics epidemic treatment. Different teams have already carried out studies in order to exploit the use of Earth Observation (EO) data with epidemiology purposes. In the case of malaria risk maps, it has been shown that meteorological data is not sufficient to fulfill this objective. In particular being able to map the malaria mosquito habitat would increase the accuracy of risk maps. The malaria mosquitoes mainly reproduce in new water puddles of very reduced dimensions (about 1 meter wide). There is no instrument that could detect such small patches of water unless there are many of them spread in an area of several hundreds of meters. MalarSat aims at using the radar altimeter data from the EnviSat, RA-2, to try and build indicators of mosquitoes existence. This presentation will show the scientific objectives and principles of the MalarSat project.

  9. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria.

    PubMed

    Visser, Theodoor; Daily, Jennifer; Hotte, Nora; Dolkart, Caitlin; Cunningham, Jane; Yadav, Prashant

    2015-12-01

    Maintaining quality, competitiveness and innovation in global health technology is a constant challenge for manufacturers, while affordability, access and equity are challenges for governments and international agencies. In this paper we discuss these issues with reference to rapid diagnostic tests for malaria. Strategies to control and eliminate malaria depend on early and accurate diagnosis. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria require little training and equipment and can be performed by non-specialists in remote settings. Use of these tests has expanded significantly over the last few years, following recommendations to test all suspected malaria cases before treatment and the implementation of an evaluation programme to assess the performance of the malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Despite these gains, challenges exist that, if not addressed, could jeopardize the progress made to date. We discuss recent developments in rapid diagnostic tests for malaria, highlight some of the challenges and provide suggestions to address them.

  10. Diagnostic approaches to malaria in Zambia, 2009-2014.

    PubMed

    Mukonka, Victor M; Chanda, Emmanuel; Kamuliwo, Mulakwa; Elbadry, Maha A; Wamulume, Pauline K; Mwanza-Ingwe, Mercy; Lubinda, Jailos; Laytner, Lindsey A; Zhang, Wenyi; Mushinge, Gabriel; Haque, Ubydul

    2015-06-03

    Malaria is an important health burden in Zambia with proper diagnosis remaining as one of the biggest challenges. The need for reliable diagnostics is being addressed through the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, without sufficient laboratory amenities in many parts of the country, diagnosis often still relies on non-specific, clinical symptoms. In this study, geographical information systems were used to both visualize and analyze the spatial distribution and the risk factors related to the diagnosis of malaria. The monthly reported, district-level number of malaria cases from January 2009 to December 2014 were collected from the National Malaria Control Center (NMCC). Spatial statistics were used to reveal cluster tendencies that were subsequently linked to possible risk factors, using a non-spatial regression model. Significant, spatio-temporal clusters of malaria were spotted while the introduction of RDTs made the number of clinically diagnosed malaria cases decrease by 33% from 2009 to 2014. The limited access to road network(s) was found to be associated with higher levels of malaria, which can be traced by the expansion of health promotion interventions by the NMCC, indicating enhanced diagnostic capability. The capacity of health facilities has been strengthened with the increased availability of proper diagnostic tools and through retraining of community health workers. To further enhance spatial decision support systems, a multifaceted approach is required to ensure mobilization and availability of human, infrastructural and technological resources. Surveillance based on standardized geospatial or other analytical methods should be used by program managers to design, target, monitor and assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria diagnostic resources country-wide.

  11. Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mutua, Jones M; Wang, Feng-Bin; Vaidya, Naveen K

    2015-06-01

    Malaria and typhoid are among the most endemic diseases, and thus, of major public health concerns in tropical developing countries. In addition to true co-infection of malaria and typhoid, false diagnoses due to similar signs and symptoms and false positive results in testing methods, leading to improper controls, are the major challenges on managing these diseases. In this study, we develop novel mathematical models describing the co-infection dynamics of malaria and typhoid. Through mathematical analyses of our models, we identify distinct features of typhoid and malaria infection dynamics as well as relationships associated to their co-infection. The global dynamics of typhoid can be determined by a single threshold (the typhoid basic reproduction number, R0(T)) while two thresholds (the malaria basic reproduction number, R0(M), and the extinction index, R0(MM)) are needed to determine the global dynamics of malaria. We demonstrate that by using efficient simultaneous prevention programs, the co-infection basic reproduction number, R0, can be brought down to below one, thereby eradicating the diseases. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in the Eastern Province of Kenya to quantify the possible false diagnosis resulting from this co-infection. In Kenya, despite having higher prevalence of typhoid, malaria is more problematic in terms of new infections and disease deaths. We find that false diagnosis-with higher possible cases for typhoid than malaria-cause significant devastating impacts on Kenyan societies. Our results demonstrate that both diseases need to be simultaneously managed for successful control of co-epidemics.

  12. [Assessment of malaria screening management in blood donation control in the French Military Blood Institute].

    PubMed

    Pouget, T; Garcia-Hejl, C; Bouzard, S; Roche, C; Sailliol, A; Martinaud, C

    2014-06-01

    The French Military Blood Institute is responsible for the entire blood supply chain in the French Armed Forces. Considering, the high exposition rate of military to malaria risk, blood donation screening of plasmodium infection must be as efficient as possible. The main aim of our study was to assess our malaria testing strategy based on a single Elisa test compared with a two-step strategy implying immunofluorescence testing as confirmation test. The second goal was to describe characteristic of malaria Elisa positive donors. We conducted a prospective study: every malaria Elisa positive test was implemented by immunofluorescence testing and demographical data were recorded as usual by our medical software. We showed a significant risk of malaria ELISA positive tests among donor born in endemic area and we estimate the number of abusively 3-year rejected donors. However, based on our estimations, the two-step strategy is not relevant since the number of additionally collected blood products will be low.

  13. Malaria in Pregnancy

    PubMed Central

    Takem, Ebako Ndip; D’Alessandro, Umberto

    2013-01-01

    Pregnant women have a higher risk of malaria compared to non-pregnant women. This review provides an update on knowledge acquired since 2000 on P. falciparum and P.vivax infections in pregnancy. Maternal risk factors for malaria in pregnancy (MiP) include low maternal age, low parity, and low gestational age. The main effects of MIP include maternal anaemia, low birth weight (LBW), preterm delivery and increased infant and maternal mortality. P. falciparum infected erythrocytes sequester in the placenta by expressing surface antigens, mainly variant surface antigen (VAR2CSA), that bind to specific receptors, mainly chondroitin sulphate A. In stable transmission settings, the higher malaria risk in primigravidae can be explained by the non-recognition of these surface antigens by the immune system. Recently, placental sequestration has been described also for P.vivax infections. The mechanism of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth retardation is not completely understood, but fever (preterm delivery), anaemia, and high cytokines levels have been implicated. Clinical suspicion of MiP should be confirmed by parasitological diagnosis. The sensitivity of microscopy, with placenta histology as the gold standard, is 60% and 45% for peripheral and placental falciparum infections in African women, respectively. Compared to microscopy, RDTs have a lower sensitivity though when the quality of microscopy is low RDTs may be more reliable. Insecticide treated nets (ITN) and intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) are recommended for the prevention of MiP in stable transmission settings. ITNs have been shown to reduce malaria infection and adverse pregnancy outcomes by 28–47%. Although resistance is a concern, SP has been shown to be equivalent to MQ and AQ for IPTp. For the treatment of uncomplicated malaria during the first trimester, quinine plus clindamycin for 7 days is the first line treatment and artesunate plus clindamycin for 7 days is indicated if

  14. Spatial correlations of mapped malaria rates with environmental factors in Belize, Central America

    PubMed Central

    Hakre, Shilpa; Masuoka, Penny; Vanzie, Errol; Roberts, Donald R

    2004-01-01

    Background The purposes of this study were to map overall malaria incidence rates from 1989 through 1999 for villages in Belize; to assess the seasonal distribution of malaria incidence by region; and to correlate malaria incidence rates with vegetation cover and rivers in villages, using geographic information system technology. Malaria information on 156 villages was obtained from an electronic database maintained by the Belize National Malaria Control Program. Average annual malaria incidence rates per 1000 population over 10 years were calculated for villages using the 1991 population census as a denominator. Malaria incidence rates were integrated with vegetation cover from a 1995 vegetation map, and with river data from a digital data set. Results Mapping malaria incidence over the 10-year period in the study villages indicated the existence of a spatial pattern: the southern and western areas of Belize had consistently higher rates of malaria than northern areas. Examination of the seasonal distribution of malaria incidence by month over 10 years indicated that a statistically significant difference existed among districts and among months (p < 0.05). Spatial analysis of malaria incidence rates and of vegetation in Belize showed villages with high malaria rates having more broadleaf hill forests, agricultural land, and wetland vegetation types (i.e. SWF-seasonally waterlogged fire-induced shrubland of the plains). Statistical and spatial analyses of malaria incidence and of river distributions in Belize determined the high 10 percentile malaria incidence villages in western and southern Belize to have more rivers within two kilometers of the center of a village and a statistically significant correlation between proximity to rivers and villages (Spearman's γ = -0.23; p < 0.05), especially in Stann Creek District (Spearman's γ = -0.82; p < 0.05). Conclusions Examination of the distribution of malaria during 10 years indicated transmission varied among

  15. Transcriptional changes induced by candidate malaria vaccines and correlation with protection against malaria in a human challenge model

    PubMed Central

    Dunachie, Susanna; Berthoud, Tamara; Hill, Adrian V.S.; Fletcher, Helen A.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The complexity of immunity to malaria is well known, and clear correlates of protection against malaria have not been established. A better understanding of immune markers induced by candidate malaria vaccines would greatly enhance vaccine development, immunogenicity monitoring and estimation of vaccine efficacy in the field. We have previously reported complete or partial efficacy against experimental sporozoite challenge by several vaccine regimens in healthy malaria-naïve subjects in Oxford. These include a prime-boost regimen with RTS,S/AS02A and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) expressing the CSP antigen, and a DNA-prime, MVA-boost regimen expressing the ME TRAP antigens. Using samples from these trials we performed transcriptional profiling, allowing a global assessment of responses to vaccination. Methods We used Human RefSeq8 Bead Chips from Illumina to examine gene expression using PBMC (peripheral blood mononuclear cells) from 16 human volunteers. To focus on antigen-specific changes, comparisons were made between PBMC stimulated with CSP or TRAP peptide pools and unstimulated PBMC post vaccination. We then correlated gene expression with protection against malaria in a human Plasmodium falciparum malaria challenge model. Results Differentially expressed genes induced by both vaccine regimens were predominantly in the IFN-γ pathway. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed antigen-specific effects on genes associated with IFN induction and proteasome modules after vaccination. Genes associated with IFN induction and antigen presentation modules were positively enriched in subjects with complete protection from malaria challenge, while genes associated with haemopoietic stem cells, regulatory monocytes and the myeloid lineage modules were negatively enriched in protected subjects. Conclusions These results represent novel insights into the immune repertoires involved in malaria vaccination. PMID:26256523

  16. MINFIT: A Spreadsheet-Based Tool for Parameter Estimation in an Equilibrium Speciation Software Program.

    PubMed

    Xie, Xiongfei; Giammar, Daniel E; Wang, Zimeng

    2016-10-07

    Deterpmination of equilibrium constants describing chemical reactions in the aqueous phase and at solid-water interface relies on inverse modeling and parameter estimation. Although there are existing tools available, the steep learning curve prevents the wider community of environmental engineers and chemists to adopt those tools. Stemming from classical chemical equilibrium codes, MINEQL+ has been one of the most widely used chemical equilibrium software programs. We developed a spreadsheet-based tool, which we are calling MINFIT, that interacts with MINEQL+ to perform parameter estimations that optimize model fits to experimental data sets. MINFIT enables automatic and convenient screening of a large number of parameter sets toward the optimal solutions by calling MINEQL+ to perform iterative forward calculations following either exhaustive equidistant grid search or randomized search algorithms. The combined use of the two algorithms can securely guide the searches for the global optima. We developed interactive interfaces so that the optimization processes are transparent. Benchmark examples including both aqueous and surface complexation problems illustrate the parameter estimation and associated sensitivity analysis. MINFIT is accessible at http://minfit.strikingly.com .

  17. Cost effective malaria risk control using remote sensing and environmental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Md. Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdel Hamid

    2012-06-01

    Malaria transmission in many part of the world specifically in Bangladesh and southern African countries is unstable and epidemic. An estimate of over a million cases is reported annually. Malaria is heterogeneous, potentially due to variations in ecological settings, socio-economic status, land cover, and agricultural practices. Malaria control only relies on treatment and supply of bed networks. Drug resistance to these diseases is widespread. Vector control is minimal. Malaria control in those countries faces many formidable challenges such as inadequate accessibility to effective treatment, lack of trained manpower, inaccessibility of endemic areas, poverty, lack of education, poor health infrastructure and low health budgets. Health facilities for malaria management are limited, surveillance is inadequate, and vector control is insufficient. Control can only be successful if the right methods are used at the right time in the right place. This paper aims to improve malaria control by developing malaria risk maps and risk models using satellite remote sensing data by identifying, assessing, and mapping determinants of malaria associated with environmental, socio-economic, malaria control, and agricultural factors.

  18. Item Parameter Recovery, Standard Error Estimates, and Fit Statistics of the Winsteps Program for the Family of Rasch Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Cheng-Te

    2005-01-01

    This study investigates item parameter recovery, standard error estimates, and fit statistics yielded by the WINSTEPS program under the Rasch model and the rating scale model through Monte Carlo simulations. The independent variables were item response model, test length, and sample size. WINSTEPS yielded practically unbiased estimates for the…

  19. The Benefits and Costs of the Section 8 Housing Subsidy Program: A Framework and Estimates of First-Year Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Deven; Haveman, Robert; Kaplan, Thomas; Wolfe, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides estimates for a comprehensive set of social benefits and costs associated with the federal Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) program. The impact categories for which we provide empirical estimates include the value of the voucher to recipients; additional services and public benefits induced by voucher receipt; improvements in…

  20. The Power of Malaria Vaccine Trials Using Controlled Human Malaria Infection

    PubMed Central

    Hermsen, Cornelus C.; Sauerwein, Robert W.; de Vlas, Sake J.

    2017-01-01

    Controlled human malaria infection (CHMI) in healthy human volunteers is an important and powerful tool in clinical malaria vaccine development. However, power calculations are essential to obtain meaningful estimates of protective efficacy, while minimizing the risk of adverse events. To optimize power calculations for CHMI-based malaria vaccine trials, we developed a novel non-linear statistical model for parasite kinetics as measured by qPCR, using data from mosquito-based CHMI experiments in 57 individuals. We robustly account for important sources of variation between and within individuals using a Bayesian framework. Study power is most dependent on the number of individuals in each treatment arm; inter-individual variation in vaccine efficacy and the number of blood samples taken per day matter relatively little. Due to high inter-individual variation in the number of first-generation parasites, hepatic vaccine trials required significantly more study subjects than erythrocytic vaccine trials. We provide power calculations for hypothetical malaria vaccine trials of various designs and conclude that so far, power calculations have been overly optimistic. We further illustrate how upcoming techniques like needle-injected CHMI may reduce required sample sizes. PMID:28081133

  1. Summary Description of 24 Cases of Neonatal Malaria Seen at a Tertiary Health Center in Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Hyacinth, Hyacinth I.; Oguche, Stephen; Yilgwan, Christopher S.

    2012-01-01

    Objective Neonatal malaria is a serious cause of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagnosis of neonatal malaria is difficult because of the similarity in clinical presentation with other neonatal infections. This study aim to highlight the clinical presentations and high mortality still associated with neonatal malaria. Methods Twenty four out of 41 neonates seen during a 6 months period were studied. Gestational age, age at presentation, birth weight and other clinical symptoms were documented. Questionnaires were used to collect pertinent pregnancy and perinatal history from the mothers. Data was analyzed using SPSS v18 and results expressed in tables using means, frequencies and percentages. Findings All 24 neonates, 50% of whom were males, had a positive smear for malaria parasite. 29.2% were preterm, 17(70.8%) had congenital malaria, 18(75.0%) mothers used intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria prophylaxis in the index pregnancy and 1(4.2%) mother had HIV in pregnancy. Fever was the principal presenting symptom and 83.0% responded to treatment with amodiaquine. Conclusion Neonatal malaria is still an important cause of mortality, a more effective malaria prophylaxis program and routine malaria parasite screening for neonates is recommended. PMID:22662306

  2. [Prophylaxis of malaria].

    PubMed

    Gentilini, M; Caumes, E; Danis, M

    1992-01-01

    The prevention of malaria is based on chemoprophylaxis and protection against the vector. Nocturnal mosquito bites can be avoided by individual and collective measures, while chemoprophylaxis involves the use of various agents according to the place and duration of stay. Three endemic zones can be defined on the basis of chemoresistance. Chloroquine, proguanil and mefloquine are the three drugs used in this setting, the latter being contraindicated for pregnant women and children. Travellers making long stays in areas of low-level chemoresistance and short stays in areas of high-level resistance and for whom mefloquine is contraindicated are advised to take antimalarial drugs at the first signs of potentially malarial fever when medical care is unavailable. Quinine, halofantrine and mefloquine are used for the curative treatment of malaria in areas of chloroquine resistance.

  3. Time Series Analysis of Trends in Malaria Cases and Deaths at Hospitals and the Effect of Antimalarial Interventions, 2001–2011, Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Aregawi, Maru; Lynch, Michael; Bekele, Worku; Kebede, Henok; Jima, Daddi; Taffese, Hiwot Solomon; Yenehun, Meseret Aseffa; Lilay, Abraham; Williams, Ryan; Thomson, Madeleine; Nafo-Traore, Fatoumata; Admasu, Kesetebirhan; Gebreyesus, Tedros Adhanom; Coosemans, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Background The Government of Ethiopia and its partners have deployed artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACT) since 2004 and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) since 2005. Malaria interventions and trends in malaria cases and deaths were assessed at hospitals in malaria transmission areas during 2001–2011. Methods Regional LLINs distribution records were used to estimate the proportion of the population-at-risk protected by LLINs. Hospital records were reviewed to estimate ACT availability. Time-series analysis was applied to data from 41 hospitals in malaria risk areas to assess trends of malaria cases and deaths during pre-intervention (2001–2005) and post-interventions (2006–2011) periods. Findings The proportion of the population-at-risk potentially protected by LLINs increased to 51% in 2011. The proportion of facilities with ACTs in stock exceeded 87% during 2006–2011. Among all ages, confirmed malaria cases in 2011 declined by 66% (95% confidence interval [CI], 44–79%) and SPR by 37% (CI, 20%–51%) compared to the level predicted by pre-intervention trends. In children under 5 years of age, malaria admissions and deaths fell by 81% (CI, 47%–94%) and 73% (CI, 48%–86%) respectively. Optimal breakpoint of the trendlines occurred between January and June 2006, consistent with the timing of malaria interventions. Over the same period, non-malaria cases and deaths either increased or remained unchanged, the number of malaria diagnostic tests performed reflected the decline in malaria cases, and rainfall remained at levels supportive of malaria transmission. Conclusions Malaria cases and deaths in Ethiopian hospitals decreased substantially during 2006–2011 in conjunction with scale-up of malaria interventions. The decrease could not be accounted for by changes in hospital visits, malaria diagnostic testing or rainfall. However, given the history of variable malaria transmission in Ethiopia, more data would be required to exclude the

  4. [Malaria in hominids].

    PubMed

    Snounou, Georges; Escalante, Ananias; Kasenene, John; Rénia, Laurent; Grüner, Anne-Charlotte; Krief, Sabrina

    2011-11-01

    Malaria parasites (Plasmodium spp) that infect great apes are very poorly documented Malaria was first described in gorillas, chimpanzees and orangutans in the early 20th century, but most studies were confined to a handful of chimpanzees in the 1930-1950s and a few orangutans in the 1970s. The three Plasmodium species described in African great apes were very similar to those infecting humans. The most extensively studied was P reichenowi, because of its close phylogenetic relation to P. falciparum, the predominant parasite in Africa and the most dangerous for humans. In the last three years, independent molecular studies of various chimpanzee and gorilla populations have revealed an unexpected diversity in the Plasmodium species they harbor, which are also phylogenetically close to P falciparum. In addition, cases of non human primate infection by human malaria parasites have been observed. These observations shed fresh light on the origin and evolutionary history of P. falciparum and provide a unique opportunity to probe the biological specificities of this major human parasite.

  5. Malaria parasite clearance.

    PubMed

    White, Nicholas J

    2017-02-23

    Following anti-malarial drug treatment asexual malaria parasite killing and clearance appear to be first order processes. Damaged malaria parasites in circulating erythrocytes are removed from the circulation mainly by the spleen. Splenic clearance functions increase markedly in acute malaria. Either the entire infected erythrocytes are removed because of their reduced deformability or increased antibody binding or, for the artemisinins which act on young ring stage parasites, splenic pitting of drug-damaged parasites is an important mechanism of clearance. The once-infected erythrocytes returned to the circulation have shortened survival. This contributes to post-artesunate haemolysis that may follow recovery in non-immune hyperparasitaemic patients. As the parasites mature Plasmodium vivax-infected erythrocytes become more deformable, whereas Plasmodium falciparum-infected erythrocytes become less deformable, but they escape splenic filtration by sequestering in venules and capillaries. Sequestered parasites are killed in situ by anti-malarial drugs and then disintegrate to be cleared by phagocytic leukocytes. After treatment with artemisinin derivatives some asexual parasites become temporarily dormant within their infected erythrocytes, and these may regrow after anti-malarial drug concentrations decline. Artemisinin resistance in P. falciparum reflects reduced ring stage susceptibility and manifests as slow parasite clearance. This is best assessed from the slope of the log-linear phase of parasitaemia reduction and is commonly measured as a parasite clearance half-life. Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of anti-malarial drug effects on parasite clearance has proved useful in predicting therapeutic responses and in dose-optimization.

  6. A data-input program (MFI2005) for the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model (MODFLOW-2005) and parameter estimation program (UCODE_2005)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harbaugh, Arien W.

    2011-01-01

    The MFI2005 data-input (entry) program was developed for use with the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model, MODFLOW-2005. MFI2005 runs on personal computers and is designed to be easy to use; data are entered interactively through a series of display screens. MFI2005 supports parameter estimation using the UCODE_2005 program for parameter estimation. Data for MODPATH, a particle-tracking program for use with MODFLOW-2005, also can be entered using MFI2005. MFI2005 can be used in conjunction with other data-input programs so that the different parts of a model dataset can be entered by using the most suitable program.

  7. Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.

    2007-12-01

    The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.

  8. Instrumented decomposition: A new method to estimate the net energy savings caused by efficient appliance rebate programs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kandel, Adrienne Beth

    Most existing statistical methods for estimating net savings from efficient appliance rebate and incentive programs do not fully separate program-induced savings (net savings) from naturally occurring savings. Further, they handle self-selection bias poorly. This paper introduces "Instrumented Decomposition," a two-stage instrumental variables procedure method which estimates net savings consistently because it correctly decomposes energy savings into program-induced, free rider, and other components. The decomposition provides an algebra which reveals the severely limiting assumptions of current methods. Self-selection effects are treated, and choice-based samples are supported. The procedure requires a nonparticipant comparison group containing either buyers or owners of the program-targeted appliance or program-year buyers of a possibly less efficient version. Applied to an evaporative cooler rebate program in a desert climate, the model shows a two-thirds reduction of air conditioning electricity usage, and further shows that the program attracted purchases by higher income households normally uninterested in evaporative cooling. Asymptotic standard error is only about 12% of estimated net savings, and sensitivity to variable choice is low. The model is also applied to an efficient central air conditioning rebate program, where savings of participants replacing their older system outweigh the dis-savings due to 5% of participants being new adopters of central air conditioning who would not have bought central air without the program.

  9. PATRONAGE AND COST OF MALARIA TREATMENT IN PRIVATE HOSPITALS IN IBADAN NORTH L.G.A SOUTH WESTERN, NIGERIA

    PubMed Central

    Salawu, A.T.; Fawole, O.I.; Dairo, M.D.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Malaria accounts for about 60% of all clinic attendance in Nigeria. About 300,000 children die of malaria annually while an estimated 4,500 pregnant women are lost annually on account of malaria in Nigeria alone. High cost of treatment is a barrier to the uptake of health services in low resource settings, therefore an exploration of the cost of malaria management will reveal possible components that may benefit from intervention and thus reveal important clues for improving access to malaria treatment. Objective of this study therefore is to describe patronage and cost of malaria treatment in private hospitals in Ibadan. Method: This was a descriptive cross sectional study, carried out in private hospitals in Ibadan, South Western Nigeria. A self-administered questionnaire with open and close-ended questions was used to collect data on patronage and cost of treatment in adults, children and pregnant women attending private health facilities in Ibadan, Nigeria. Data were presented using tables of frequencies and proportions while analysis was by descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 40 doctors and hospitals participated in the study. Average patronage for malaria, both complicated and uncomplicated per month was 153 patients per hospital. Malaria cases accounts for 331 (46.2%) of total clinic cases seen in private hospitals in a month. About 121 (78%) of malaria cases seen were uncomplicated while 32 (21%) of cases were complicated malaria. Average amount charged patient for treating uncomplicated malaria in private hospitals was N3,941. Average amount spent on antimalarial drugs was about N2,443 (62%) while N1,064 (27.7%) was spent on laboratory investigation and N406.00 (10.3%) for medical consultation. Conclusion: Drugs cost constitute the bulk of expenses on malaria treatment. Policy makers may improve access to malaria treatment by subsidizing the cost of anti-malaria drugs for pregnant women and children, who might not be able to afford

  10. Immunity to malaria in an era of declining malaria transmission.

    PubMed

    Fowkes, Freya J I; Boeuf, Philippe; Beeson, James G

    2016-02-01

    With increasing malaria control and goals of malaria elimination, many endemic areas are transitioning from high-to-low-to-no malaria transmission. Reductions in transmission will impact on the development of naturally acquired immunity to malaria, which develops after repeated exposure to Plasmodium spp. However, it is currently unclear how declining transmission and malaria exposure will affect the development and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity. Here we review the key processes which underpin this knowledge; the amount of Plasmodium spp. exposure required to generate effective immune responses, the longevity of antibody responses and the ability to mount an effective response upon re-exposure through memory responses. Lastly we identify research priorities which will increase our understanding of how changing transmission will impact on malarial immunity.

  11. Profiling the host response to malaria vaccination and malaria challenge

    PubMed Central

    Dunachie, Susanna; Hill, Adrian V.S.; Fletcher, Helen A.

    2015-01-01

    A vaccine for malaria is urgently required. The RTS,S vaccine represents major progress, but is only partially effective. Development of the next generation of highly effective vaccines requires elucidation of the protective immune response. Immunity to malaria is known to be complex, and pattern-based approaches such as global gene expression profiling are ideal for understanding response to vaccination and protection against disease. The availability of experimental sporozoite challenge in humans to test candidate malaria vaccines offers a precious opportunity unavailable for other current targets of vaccine research such as HIV, tuberculosis and Ebola. However, a limited number of transcriptional profiling studies in the context of malaria vaccine research have been published to date. This review outlines the background, existing studies, limits and opportunities for gene expression studies to accelerate malaria vaccine research. PMID:26256528

  12. Profiling the host response to malaria vaccination and malaria challenge.

    PubMed

    Dunachie, Susanna; Hill, Adrian V S; Fletcher, Helen A

    2015-09-29

    A vaccine for malaria is urgently required. The RTS,S vaccine represents major progress, but is only partially effective. Development of the next generation of highly effective vaccines requires elucidation of the protective immune response. Immunity to malaria is known to be complex, and pattern-based approaches such as global gene expression profiling are ideal for understanding response to vaccination and protection against disease. The availability of experimental sporozoite challenge in humans to test candidate malaria vaccines offers a precious opportunity unavailable for other current targets of vaccine research such as HIV, tuberculosis and Ebola. However, a limited number of transcriptional profiling studies in the context of malaria vaccine research have been published to date. This review outlines the background, existing studies, limits and opportunities for gene expression studies to accelerate malaria vaccine research.

  13. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs: A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1996-06-01

    Nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review their decommissioning cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning boiling water reactor (BWR) power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  14. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  15. A computer program for wing subsonic aerodynamic performance estimates including attainable thrust and vortex lift effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, H. W.; Walkley, K. B.

    1982-01-01

    Numerical methods incorporated into a computer program to provide estimates of the subsonic aerodynamic performance of twisted and cambered wings of arbitrary planform with attainable thrust and vortex lift considerations are described. The computational system is based on a linearized theory lifting surface solution which provides a spanwise distribution of theoretical leading edge thrust in addition to the surface distribution of perturbation velocities. The approach used relies on a solution by iteration. The method also features a superposition of independent solutions for a cambered and twisted wing and a flat wing of the same planform to provide, at little additional expense, results for a large number of angles of attack or lift coefficients. A previously developed method is employed to assess the portion of the theoretical thrust actually attainable and the portion that is felt as a vortex normal force.

  16. Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost

    SciTech Connect

    Bokanowski, Olivier; Picarelli, Athena; Zidani, Hasnaa

    2015-02-15

    This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach.

  17. Malaria in Wanokaka and Loli sub-districts, West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Syafruddin, Din; Asih, Puji B S; Coutrier, Farah N; Trianty, Leily; Noviyanti, Rintis; Luase, Yaveth; Sumarto, Wajiyo; Caley, Marten; van der Ven, Andre J A M; Sauerwein, Robert W

    2006-05-01

    Malaria has long been known as one of the major public health problems in West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. To obtain baseline data for establishment of a suitable malaria control program in the area, malariometric surveys were conducted in two sub-districts, Wanokaka and Loli, during the periods of January, May, and August 2005. The survey included three selected villages in each sub-district, and blood smear analyses of 701, 921, and 894 randomly selected subjects in January, May, and August revealed 30.5%, 25.3%, and 28.2% malaria positives, respectively, consisting mainly of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, and in a few cases, P. malariae. Analysis of malaria prevalence at different age groups clearly reflected the common phenomenon that younger individuals are more vulnerable by infection of either P. falciparum or P. vivax. In falciparum malaria, the frequency of cases carrying gametocytes was also relatively high involving all age groups. The findings indicate that the malaria incidence and transmission in the area are relatively high and that further exploration is warranted to establish a precise malaria control program.

  18. MMV: New Medicines for Malaria Venture.

    PubMed

    1999-02-01

    New Medicines for Malaria Venture (MMV) is a public/private, nonprofit initiative to develop 1 new drug against malaria every 5 years. It will operate under the umbrella of Roll Back Malaria, a new project launched by World Health Organization (WHO) Director General, Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland. The UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) helped establish the MMV through its product R&D unit, and there has been considerable industrial input. The World Bank and the Global Forum for Health Research are other international agencies involved in the initiative, while several philanthropic organizations such as the Rockefeller Foundation and the Wellcome Trust have also played major roles. MMV will create a fund and operate by financing and resourcing a limited number of projects in a manner compatible with industrial procedures. The fund is mainly supported financially by the public sector, while a funding commitment of US$15 million/year rising to US$30 million a year is being sought. Companies are providing mainly in-kind support.

  19. Malaria Diagnostics in Clinical Trials

    PubMed Central

    Murphy, Sean C.; Shott, Joseph P.; Parikh, Sunil; Etter, Paige; Prescott, William R.; Stewart, V. Ann

    2013-01-01

    Malaria diagnostics are widely used in epidemiologic studies to investigate natural history of disease and in drug and vaccine clinical trials to exclude participants or evaluate efficacy. The Malaria Laboratory Network (MLN), managed by the Office of HIV/AIDS Network Coordination, is an international working group with mutual interests in malaria disease and diagnosis and in human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome clinical trials. The MLN considered and studied the wide array of available malaria diagnostic tests for their suitability for screening trial participants and/or obtaining study endpoints for malaria clinical trials, including studies of HIV/malaria co-infection and other malaria natural history studies. The MLN provides recommendations on microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, serologic tests, and molecular assays to guide selection of the most appropriate test(s) for specific research objectives. In addition, this report provides recommendations regarding quality management to ensure reproducibility across sites in clinical trials. Performance evaluation, quality control, and external quality assessment are critical processes that must be implemented in all clinical trials using malaria tests. PMID:24062484

  20. Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

  1. State-level evaluations of the Weatherization Assistance Program in 1990-1996: a metaevaluation that estimates national savings

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, L.

    1997-01-01

    The DOE Weatherization Assistance Program is one of the largest energy conservation programs in the nation. To obtain an updated estimate of national Program savings, an approach of metaevaluation was selected, which involved locating, assembling, and summarizing the results of all state-level evaluations of the Program that have become available since 1990. All of the savings estimates that are presented in this report are for dwellings that heat primarily with natural gas.This review of the state-level evaluations conducted since 1990 concluded that Program performance has improved significantly in the last seven years. The finding that savings are increasing are supported by a literature review, within-state comparisons of savings over time, and regression modeling results.

  2. Estimates of dynamic parameters and boundaries of habitable zones of selected stars of the Pulkovo program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakht, N. A.; Romanenko, L. G.; Gorshanov, D. L.; Vasilkova, O. O.

    2016-01-01

    A list of selected binary stars is presented that have been observed for several decades using a 26-inch refractor at the Pulkovo Observatory. These stars are at a distance from 3.5 to 25 pc from the Sun. They belong to spectral classes F, G, K, and M. Their masses range from 0.3 to 1.5 solar masses. We have analyzed them as possible parent stars for exoplanets taking into account the physical characteristics of these stars. In view of dynamic parameters and orbital elements that we have obtained by Pulkovo observations, ephemerides of positions for the coming years are calculated. The boundaries of the habitable zones around these stars are calculated. The astrometric signal that depends on the gravitational influence of hypothetical planets is estimated. Space telescopes for astrometric observations with microsecond accuracy can be used to detect Earth-like planets near the closest stars of this program. This paper presents an overview of astrometric programs of searches for exoplanets.

  3. Statistical Trajectory Estimation Program (STEP) implementation for BLDT post flight trajectory simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shields, W. E.

    1973-01-01

    Tests were conducted to provide flight conditions for qualifying the Viking Decelerator System in a simulated Mars environment. A balloon launched decelerator test (BLDT) vehicle which has an external shape similar to the actual Mars Viking Lander Capsule was used so that the decelerator would be deployed in the wake of a blunt body. An effort was made to simulate the BLDT vehicle flights from the time they were dropped from the balloon, through decelerator deployment, until stable decelerator conditions were reached. The procedure used to simulate these flights using the Statistical Trajectory Estimation Program (STEP) is discussed. Using primarily ground-based position radar and vehicle onboard rate gyro and accelerometer data, the STEP produces a minimum variance solution of the vehicle trajectory and calculates vehicle attitude histories. Using film from cameras in the vehicle along with a computer program, attitude histories for portions of the flight before and after decelerator deployment were calculated independent of the STEP simulation. With the assumption that the vehicle motions derived from camera data are accurate, a comparison reveals that STEP was able to simulate vehicle motions for all flights both before and after decelerator deployment.

  4. EC50 estimation of antioxidant activity in DPPH· assay using several statistical programs.

    PubMed

    Chen, Zheng; Bertin, Riccardo; Froldi, Guglielmina

    2013-05-01

    DPPH(·) assay is a reliable method to determine the antioxidant capacity of biological substrates. The DPPH(·) radical scavenging activity is generally quantified in terms of inhibition percentage of the pre-formed free radical by antioxidants, and the EC(50) (concentration required to obtain a 50% antioxidant effect) is a typically employed parameter to express the antioxidant capacity and to compare the activity of different compounds. In this study, the EC(50) estimation was performed using a comparative approach based on various regression models implemented in six specialized computer programs: GraphPad Prism® version 5.01, BLeSq, OriginPro® 8.5.1, SigmaPlot® 12, BioDataFit® 1.02, and IBM SPSS Statistics® Desktop 19.0. For this project, quercetin, catechin, ascorbic acid, caffeic acid, chlorogenic acid and acetylcysteine were screened as antioxidant standards with DPPH(·) assay to define the EC(50) parameters. All the statistical programs gave similar EC(50) values, but GraphPad Prism® five-parameter analysis pointed out a best performance, also showing a minor variance in relation to the actual EC(50).

  5. Community Knowledge and Acceptance of Larviciding for Malaria Control in a Rural District of East-Central Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Mboera, Leonard E. G.; Kramer, Randall A.; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Kilima, Stella P.; Shayo, Elizabeth H.; Lesser, Adriane

    2014-01-01

    The use of microbial larvicides, a form of larval source management, is a less commonly used malaria control intervention that nonetheless has significant potential as a component of an integrated vector management strategy. We evaluated community acceptability of larviciding in a rural district in east-central Tanzania using data from 962 household surveys, 12 focus group discussions, and 24 in-depth interviews. Most survey respondents trusted in the safety (73.1%) and efficacy of larviciding, both with regards to mosquito control (92.3%) and to reduce malaria infection risk (91.9%). Probing these perceptions using a Likert scale provides a more detailed picture. Focus group participants and key informants were also receptive to larviciding, but stressed the importance of sensitization before its implementation. Overall, 73.4% of survey respondents expressed a willingness to make a nominal household contribution to a larviciding program, a proportion which decreased as the proposed contribution increased. The lower-bound mean willingness to pay is estimated at 2,934 Tanzanian Shillings (approximately US$1.76) per three month period. We present a multivariate probit regression analysis examining factors associated with willingness to pay. Overall, our findings point to a receptive environment in a rural setting in Tanzania for the use of microbial larvicides in malaria control. PMID:24830448

  6. A real-time digital program for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data by using the maximum likelihood method

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grove, R. D.; Mayhew, S. C.

    1973-01-01

    A computer program (Langley program C1123) has been developed for estimating aircraft stability and control parameters from flight test data. These parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure implemented on a real-time digital simulation system, which uses the Control Data 6600 computer. This system allows the investigator to interact with the program in order to obtain satisfactory results. Part of this system, the control and display capabilities, is described for this program. This report also describes the computer program by presenting the program variables, subroutines, flow charts, listings, and operational features. Program usage is demonstrated with a test case using pseudo or simulated flight data.

  7. Can plant biotechnology help break the HIV-malaria link?

    PubMed

    Vamvaka, E; Twyman, R M; Christou, P; Capell, T

    2014-01-01

    The population of sub-Saharan Africa is at risk from multiple, poverty-related endemic diseases. HIV and malaria are the most prevalent, but they disproportionately affect different groups of people, i.e. HIV predominantly affects sexually-active adults whereas malaria has a greater impact on children and pregnant women. Nevertheless, there is a significant geographical and epidemiological overlap which results in bidirectional and synergistic interactions with important consequences for public health. The immunosuppressive effects of HIV increase the risk of infection when individuals are exposed to malaria parasites and also the severity of malaria symptoms. Similarly, acute malaria can induce a temporary increase in the HIV viral load. HIV is associated with a wide range of opportunistic infections that can be misdiagnosed as malaria, resulting in the wasteful misuse of antimalarial drugs and a failure to address the genuine cause of the disease. There is also a cumulative risk of toxicity when antiretroviral and antimalarial drugs are given to the same patients. Synergistic approaches involving the control of malaria as a strategy to fight HIV/AIDS and vice versa are therefore needed in co-endemic areas. Plant biotechnology has emerged as a promising approach to tackle poverty-related diseases because plant-derived drugs and vaccines can be produced inexpensively in developing countries and may be distributed using agricultural infrastructure without the need for a cold chain. Here we explore some of the potential contributions of plant biotechnology and its integration into broader multidisciplinary public health programs to combat the two diseases in developing countries.

  8. Behavioral change communication strategy vital in malaria prevention interventions in rural communities: Nakasongola district, Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mugisa, Margaret; Muzoora, Abel

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Malaria is a leading killer disease in Uganda and it accounts for significant morbidity in pregnant women and children. Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria, which causes adverse effects including abortion, low birth weight and maternal anaemia. Children with severe malaria frequently develop one of these symptoms including: severe anaemia, respiratory distress, Prostration, convulsions and cerebral malaria. Due to the severity of the disease there is need for multiple interventions to reduce the disease burden. African Medical and Research Foundation (AMREF) adopted community based approaches to improve malaria prevention. Behavioral change communication (BCC) was fundamental at every process of Project implementation. This paper shares AMREF's experience in using BCC strategies amidst other interventions in malaria prevention approaches involving use of insecticide treated nets and environment management. Methods AMREF through a Malaria project (2007-2010) in Nakasongola district supported BCC activities through training, community mobilization, mass media, health promotion and advocacy. Program performance was measured through baseline and evaluation surveys in 2007 and 2010. Results The final project evaluation indicated improvement from baseline values as follows: knowledge on prevention of malaria among school children from 76.6% to 90%, under five children sleeping under bed net the previous night from 51% to 74.7%, and from 24% to 78% among pregnant women. Conclusion Mobilization of malaria prevention interventions can be successful once BCC approaches are adequately planned and coordinated. Malaria prevention through BCC strategies are likely to be more effective with integration of other malaria interventions, and involvement of community based structures. PMID:23467840

  9. Measuring the association between artemisinin-based case management and malaria incidence in southern Vietnam, 1991-2010.

    PubMed

    Peak, Corey M; Thuan, Phung Duc; Britton, Amadea; Nguyen, Tran Dang; Wolbers, Marcel; Thanh, Ngo Viet; Buckee, Caroline O; Boni, Maciej F

    2015-04-01

    In addition to being effective, fast-acting, and well tolerated, artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are able to kill certain transmission stages of the malaria parasite. However, the population-level impacts of ACTs on reducing malaria transmission have been difficult to assess. In this study on the history of malaria control in Vietnam, we assemble annual reporting on malaria case counts, coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), and drug purchases by provincial malaria control programs from 1991 to 2010 in Vietnam's 20 southern provinces. We observe a significant negative association between artemisinin use and malaria incidence, with a 10% absolute increase in the purchase proportion of artemisinin-containing regimens being associated with a 29.1% (95% confidence interval: 14.8-41.0%) reduction in slide-confirmed malaria incidence, after accounting for changes in urbanization, ITN/IRS coverage, and two indicators of health system capacity. One budget-related indicator of health system capacity was found to have a smaller association with malaria incidence, and no other significant factors were found. Our findings suggest that including an artemisinin component in malaria drug regimens was strongly associated with reduced malaria incidence in southern Vietnam, whereas changes in urbanization and coverage with ITN or IRS were not.

  10. The Burden of Early Exposure to Malaria in the United States, 1850–1860: Malnutrition and Immune Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Sok Chul

    2008-01-01

    This article uses nineteenth-century evidence to calculate the impact of early exposure to malaria-ridden environments on nutritional status and the immune system in America. I estimate the risk of contracting malarial fevers in the 1850s by using correlations between malaria and environmental factors such as climate and geographical features. The study demonstrates that Union Army recruits who spent their early years in malaria-endemic counties were 1.1 inches shorter at enlistment due to malnutrition and were 13 percent more susceptible to infections during the U.S. Civil War as a result of immune disorders than were those from malaria-free regions. PMID:19081796

  11. Chemotherapy of Rodent Malaria.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-07-01

    15 ML W_____ 1 .5 1.25 1-4 1. j . .. .... AD CHEMOTHERAPY OF RODENT MALARIA /I ’ IFINAL REPORT 00 WALLACE PETERS MD DSc I!JULY 1985 Supported by US...Table 15 and detailed report sheets are appended as Tables 16 through 21. 3.1.1 WR 251855 AA This lepidine, an analogue of primaquine, is very active...in our 15 preliminary test. The remaining three compounds also exhibited toxicity in varying degrees at this dose and, consequently, even the low level

  12. [Fake malaria drugs].

    PubMed

    Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

    2009-03-02

    The literature on fake medicaments is sparse, even if approximately 15% of all medicaments are fake, a figure that for antimalarials in particular reaches 50% in parts of Africa and Asia. Sub-standard and fake medicines deplete the public's confidence in health systems, health professionals and in the pharmaceutical industry - and increase the risk that resistance develops. For a traveller coming from a rich Western country, choosing to buy e.g. preventive antimalarials over the internet or in poor malaria-endemic areas, the consequences may be fatal. International trade-, control- and police-collaboration is needed to manage the problem, as is the fight against poverty and poor governance.

  13. Malaria transmission and insecticide resistance of Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) in the French military camp of Port-Bouët, Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire): implications for vector control.

    PubMed

    Girod, Romain; Orlandi-Pradines, Eve; Rogier, Christophe; Pages, Frederic

    2006-09-01

    An important vector control program is ongoing to lower the risk of malaria transmission in the French military camp of Port-Bouët, Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire). However, some autochthonous malaria cases are regularly suspected. An entomological survey was conducted in June 2004 in the camp to assess malaria transmission and evaluate the pyrethroid and organophosphate resistance of the malaria vectors. The average mosquito biting rate was 178.0 bites per person per night. Mosquitoes belonging to the Anopheles gambiae (Diptera: Culicidae) complex and the Anopheles funestus group were collected. An. gambiae s.s. molecular form M was the only species of the An. gambiae complex present. The average number of An. gambiae bites was approximately 44.3 per person per night. The circumsporozoite index was 0.38% and the entomological inoculation rate estimated to be 1.2 infective bites per week for the study period. The kdr and ace1 gene frequencies in the An. gambiae population were 0.70 and 0.15, respectively. Personnel living in the French barracks of Port-Bouët are thus at high risk of being bitten by parasite-infected mosquitoes. Such an entomological inoculation rate, usually found in African peri-urban environments, was unexpected considering the extensive effort deployed to control mosquitoes in the camp. Insecticide resistance could explain the inefficacy of the vector control program but the spraying strategy is also questionable.

  14. Community Perceptions and Practices about Malaria Prevention and Control in Iran

    PubMed Central

    RAKHSHANI, Fatemeh; ANSARI-MOGHADAM, Alireza; MOHAMMADI, Mahdi; RANJBAR, Mansoor; RAEISI, Ahmad; RAKHSHANI, Tayebeh

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background General knowledge of at risk people regarding malaria is key element to facilitate appropriate treatment and prevention behaviours. The aim of this study was to assess the family heads' understanding of malaria transmission, signs and symptoms, and preventive measures in malaria-affected districts of Iran. Method In 2009 in a cluster randomized cross-sectional survey data were collected from the heads of 5,466 randomly selected households by trained interviewers and a validated questionnaire. Only one adult person was interviewed per household Once all the information collected and entered to the SPSS Ver. 18 analysis was done and descriptive statistics were used to summarize results. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals were also estimated for indicators. Results 63.8% [95% CI: 62.2 - 65.4] of the participants recognized fever as a sign of malaria, 56.4% [95% CI: 54.6 - 58.2] reported that mosquito bites cause malaria and about 35% [95% CI: 32.7 - 37.1] of participants mentioned that the use of mosquito nets could prevent malaria. Furthermore, about one-third of selected samples in target districts did not know symptoms, transmission route and appropriate prevention method of malaria. Data also suggests a slight variation by residency, but substantial discrepancy according to the region. Conclusions General knowledge of respondents concerning malaria is too far from the levels required to be constructive for malaria elimination. Therefore, the survey suggests developing, and implementing effective health promotion policies to increase the awareness of households about the symptoms, transmission route and control measures of malaria. PMID:26060681

  15. Malaria and primary education in Mali: a longitudinal study in the village of Donéguébougou.

    PubMed

    Thuilliez, Josselin; Sissoko, Mahamadou S; Toure, Ousmane B; Kamate, Paul; Berthélemy, Jean-Claude; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2010-07-01

    This article assesses the role of malaria and certain social determinants on primary education, especially on educational achievement in Donéguébougou, a small village in a malaria-endemic area near Bamako, Mali. Field data was collected by the authors between November 2007 and June 2008 on 227 schoolchildren living in Donéguébougou. Various malaria indicators and econometric models were used to explain the variation in cognitive abilities, teachers' evaluation scores, school progression and absences. Malaria is the primary cause of school absences. Fixed-effects estimates showed that asymptomatic malaria and the presence of falciparum malaria parasites had a direct correlation with educational achievement and cognitive performance. The evidence suggests that the correlation is causal.

  16. A Systems Thinking Framework for Assessing and Addressing Malaria Locally: An Alternative to the Globalization of Anti-Malaria Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willis, Derek W.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation analyzes a decision system that was used in the early 1900s in the Federated Malay States (FMS) by Malcolm Watson in order to make anti-malaria program recommendations to decision makers in a wide range of ecological settings. Watson's recommendations to decision makers throughout the FMS led to a dramatic suppression of malaria…

  17. Placental hypoxia during placental malaria

    PubMed Central

    Boeuf, Philippe; Tan, Aimee; Romagosa, Cleofe; Radford, Jane; Mwapasa, Victor; Molyneux, Malcolm E.; Meshnick, Steven R.; Hunt, Nicholas H.; Rogerson, Stephen J.

    2009-01-01

    Background Placental malaria causes fetal growth retardation (FGR), which has been linked epidemiologically to placental monocyte infiltrates. We investigated whether parasite or monocyte infiltrates were associated with placental hypoxia, as a potential mechanism underlying malarial FGR. Methods We studied the hypoxia markers hypoxia inducible factor (HIF)-1α, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor, VEGF receptor 1 and its soluble form and VEGF receptor 2. We used real time PCR (in 59 women) to examine gene transcription, immunohistochemistry (in 30 women) to describe protein expression and laser capture microdissection (in 23 women) to examine syncytiotrophoblast-specific changes in gene expression. We compared gene and protein expression in relation to malaria infection, monocytes infiltrates and birth weight. Results we could not associate any hallmark of placental malaria with a transcription, expression or tissue distribution profile characteristic of a response to hypoxia but found higher HIF-1α (P=.0005) and lower VEGF levels (P=.0026) in the syncytiotrophoblast of malaria cases versus asymptomatic controls. Conclusion our data are inconsistent with a role for placental hypoxia in the pathogenesis of malaria-associated FGR. The laser capture microdissection study was small, but suggests that malaria affects syncytiotrophoblast gene transcription, and proposes novel potential mechanisms for placental malaria-associated FGR. PMID:18279052

  18. Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

    PubMed Central

    Tatem, Andrew J; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Kabaria, Caroline W; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-01-01

    Summary Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955–72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated. PMID:21035838

  19. Malaria in pregnancy: access to effective interventions in Africa.

    PubMed

    Yartey, J E

    2006-09-01

    Malaria infection during pregnancy (MIP) poses substantial risks to the mother, her fetus and the newborn. Consequences of MIP include severe anemia, placental parasitemia and intrauterine growth retardation, which contribute to low birth weight, a principal cause of infant mortality in the African region. Effective interventions for the prevention and control of MIP include Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), Insecticide treated nets (ITNs), and case management, and are being deployed by countries. The global political and fiscal environment is favorable with increasing resources to support the scale-up of interventions. What is needed at country level is strong collaboration among malaria and reproductive health programs and partners, to maximize the use of available resources for scaling-up to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Equally important is the need for continuous advocacy at all levels to keep malaria high on the global agenda and maintain the current global commitment and momentum.

  20. Online Biomedical Resources for Malaria-Related Red Cell Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Piel, Frédéric B; Howes, Rosalind E; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Moyes, Catherine L; Williams, Thomas N; Weatherall, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2013-01-01

    Warnings about the expected increase of the global public health burden of malaria-related red cell disorders are accruing. Past and present epidemiological data are necessary to track spatial and temporal changes in the frequencies of these genetic disorders. A number of open access biomedical databases including data on malaria-related red cell disorders have been launched over the last two decades. Here, we review the content of these databases, most of which focus on genetic diversity, and we describe a new epidemiological resource developed by the Malaria Atlas Project. To tackle upcoming public health challenges, the integration of epidemiological and genetic data is important. As many countries are considering implementing national screening programs, strategies to make such data more accessible are also needed. PMID:23568771

  1. Online biomedical resources for malaria-related red cell disorders.

    PubMed

    Piel, Frédéric B; Howes, Rosalind E; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Moyes, Catherine L; Williams, Thomas N; Weatherall, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2013-07-01

    Warnings about the expected increase of the global public health burden of malaria-related red cell disorders are accruing. Past and present epidemiological data are necessary to track spatial and temporal changes in the frequencies of these genetic disorders. A number of open access biomedical databases including data on malaria-related red cell disorders have been launched over the last two decades. Here, we review the content of these databases, most of which focus on genetic diversity, and we describe a new epidemiological resource developed by the Malaria Atlas Project. To tackle upcoming public health challenges, the integration of epidemiological and genetic data is important. As many countries are considering implementing national screening programs, strategies to make such data more accessible are also needed.

  2. Operational strategies to achieve and maintain malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Moonen, Bruno; Cohen, Justin M; Snow, Robert W; Slutsker, Laurence; Drakeley, Chris; Smith, David L; Abeyasinghe, Rabindra R; Rodriguez, Mario Henry; Maharaj, Rajendra; Tanner, Marcel; Targett, Geoffrey

    2010-11-06

    Present elimination strategies are based on recommendations derived during the Global Malaria Eradication Program of the 1960s. However, many countries considering elimination nowadays have high intrinsic transmission potential and, without the support of a regional campaign, have to deal with the constant threat of imported cases of the disease, emphasising the need to revisit the strategies on which contemporary elimination programmes are based. To eliminate malaria, programmes need to concentrate on identification and elimination of foci of infections through both passive and active methods of case detection. This approach needs appropriate treatment of both clinical cases and asymptomatic infections, combined with targeted vector control. Draining of infectious pools entirely will not be sufficient since they could be replenished by imported malaria. Elimination will thus additionally need identification and treatment of incoming infections before they lead to transmission, or, more realistically, embarking on regional initiatives to dry up importation at its source.

  3. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  4. Evaluation of the NOW Malaria Immunochromatographic Test for Quantitative Diagnosis of Falciparum and Vivax Malaria Parasite Density

    PubMed Central

    Katakai, Yuko; Komaki-Yasuda, Kanako; Tangpukdee, Noppadon; Wilairatana, Polrat; Krudsood, Srivicha; Kano, Shigeyuki

    2011-01-01

    The NOW® Malaria Test, an immunochromatographic test (ICT), was evaluated to determine its ability to quantitatively detect malaria parasites using 100 blood samples from Thailand, including 50 Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infections and 50 P. vivax (Pv) infections. Intensities of the thickness of the visible bands of the positive ICT were compared with the parasite densities. In cases of Pf infection, the intensities of both HRP-2 bands (T1 bands: Pf specific bands) and aldolase bands (T2 bands: pan-Plasmodium bands) correlated with the parasite densities. The intensities of T2 bands in Pf positive samples showed better correlation with the parasite densities than the T1 bands. In the cases of Pv infection, the intensities of T2 bands were also well correlated with parasite density. These results suggest that the ICT is useful not only for rapid detection of malaria parasites but also for estimating parasite density. PMID:22438699

  5. Evaluation of the NOW Malaria Immunochromatographic Test for Quantitative Diagnosis of Falciparum and Vivax Malaria Parasite Density.

    PubMed

    Katakai, Yuko; Komaki-Yasuda, Kanako; Tangpukdee, Noppadon; Wilairatana, Polrat; Krudsood, Srivicha; Kano, Shigeyuki

    2011-12-01

    The NOW® Malaria Test, an immunochromatographic test (ICT), was evaluated to determine its ability to quantitatively detect malaria parasites using 100 blood samples from Thailand, including 50 Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infections and 50 P. vivax (Pv) infections. Intensities of the thickness of the visible bands of the positive ICT were compared with the parasite densities. In cases of Pf infection, the intensities of both HRP-2 bands (T1 bands: Pf specific bands) and aldolase bands (T2 bands: pan-Plasmodium bands) correlated with the parasite densities. The intensities of T2 bands in Pf positive samples showed better correlation with the parasite densities than the T1 bands. In the cases of Pv infection, the intensities of T2 bands were also well correlated with parasite density. These results suggest that the ICT is useful not only for rapid detection of malaria parasites but also for estimating parasite density.

  6. [Malaria in an outbreak zone in Oyapock (French Guiana): incidence of malaria attacks in the American Indian population of Camopi].

    PubMed

    Carme, B; Lecat, J; Lefebvre, P

    2005-01-01

    The Oyapock region is the second largest malaria outbreak area in French Guiana after Maroni. This area that has been less extensively studied that Maroni is characterized by the presence of an exclusively American Indian population on the French bank and by a high incidence of Plasmodium vivax associated with Plasmodium falciparum. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of malaria attacks in Camopi, a population center in which most inhabitants live in 15 small villages located along the middle part of the Oyapock River on the Brazilian border. Study involved diagnosis of malaria attacks (ongoing fever or reported fever within 48 hours and presence of asexual Plasmodium parasites with no other apparent etiology) and accurate estimation of its incidence as well as evaluation of the American Indian population. Study was carried out over the two-year period between April 2000 and March 2002. The mean annual incidence of malaria was 486 per 1000. Incidence was comparable for the two Plasmodium species: 248 p. 1000 for P. falciparum versus 259 p. 1000 for P. vivax but was much higher in children than adults (402 p. 1000 versus 92 p. 1000). The incidence of P. falciparum varied during the year and from one year to the next. Mixed infection documented by microscopic evidence was uncommon. With an annual incidence of around 500 p 1.000, the Oyapock area of French Guiana must be considered as a malaria hot spot.

  7. Ungulate malaria parasites

    PubMed Central

    Templeton, Thomas J.; Asada, Masahito; Jiratanh, Montakan; Ishikawa, Sohta A.; Tiawsirisup, Sonthaya; Sivakumar, Thillaiampalam; Namangala, Boniface; Takeda, Mika; Mohkaew, Kingdao; Ngamjituea, Supawan; Inoue, Noboru; Sugimoto, Chihiro; Inagaki, Yuji; Suzuki, Yasuhiko; Yokoyama, Naoaki; Kaewthamasorn, Morakot; Kaneko, Osamu

    2016-01-01

    Haemosporida parasites of even-toed ungulates are diverse and globally distributed, but since their discovery in 1913 their characterization has relied exclusively on microscopy-based descriptions. In order to bring molecular approaches to bear on the identity and evolutionary relationships of ungulate malaria parasites, we conducted Plasmodium cytb-specific nested PCR surveys using blood from water buffalo in Vietnam and Thailand, and goats in Zambia. We found that Plasmodium is readily detectable from water buffalo in these countries, indicating that buffalo Plasmodium is distributed in a wider region than India, which is the only area in which buffalo Plasmodium has been reported. Two types (I and II) of Plasmodium sequences were identified from water buffalo and a third type (III) was isolated from goat. Morphology of the parasite was confirmed in Giemsa-reagent stained blood smears for the Type I sample. Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences were isolated and used to infer a phylogeny in which ungulate malaria parasites form a monophyletic clade within the Haemosporida, and branch prior to the clade containing bird, lizard and other mammalian Plasmodium. Thus it is likely that host switching of Plasmodium from birds to mammals occurred multiple times, with a switch to ungulates independently from other mammalian Plasmodium. PMID:26996979

  8. Technical Note: Calculation of standard errors of estimates of genetic parameters with the multiple-trait derivative-free restricted maximal likelihood programs

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The MTDFREML (Boldman et al., 1995) set of programs was written to handle partially missing data in an expedient manner. When estimating (co)variance components and genetic parameters for multiple trait models, the programs have not been able to estimate standard errors of those estimates for multi...

  9. Measures of Malaria Burden after Long-Lasting Insecticidal Net Distribution and Indoor Residual Spraying at Three Sites in Uganda: A Prospective Observational Study

    PubMed Central

    Katureebe, Agaba; Zinszer, Kate; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Charland, Katia; Kigozi, Ruth; Kilama, Maxwell; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Yeka, Adoke; Mawejje, Henry; Mpimbaza, Arthur; Donnelly, Martin J.; Rosenthal, Philip J.; Lindsay, Steve W.; Staedke, Sarah G.; Smith, David L.; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant

    2016-01-01

    Background Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) are the primary vector control interventions used to prevent malaria in Africa. Although both interventions are effective in some settings, high-quality evidence is rarely available to evaluate their effectiveness following deployment by a national malaria control program. In Uganda, we measured changes in key malaria indicators following universal LLIN distribution in three sites, with the addition of IRS at one of these sites. Methods and Findings Comprehensive malaria surveillance was conducted from October 1, 2011, to March 31, 2016, in three sub-counties with relatively low (Walukuba), moderate (Kihihi), and high transmission (Nagongera). Between 2013 and 2014, universal LLIN distribution campaigns were conducted in all sites, and in December 2014, IRS with the carbamate bendiocarb was initiated in Nagongera. High-quality surveillance evaluated malaria metrics and mosquito exposure before and after interventions through (a) enhanced health-facility-based surveillance to estimate malaria test positivity rate (TPR), expressed as the number testing positive for malaria/number tested for malaria (number of children tested for malaria: Walukuba = 42,833, Kihihi = 28,790, and Nagongera = 38,690); (b) cohort studies to estimate the incidence of malaria, expressed as the number of episodes per person-year [PPY] at risk (number of children observed: Walukuba = 340, Kihihi = 380, and Nagongera = 361); and (c) entomology surveys to estimate household-level human biting rate (HBR), expressed as the number of female Anopheles mosquitoes collected per house-night of collection (number of households observed: Walukuba = 117, Kihihi = 107, and Nagongera = 107). The LLIN distribution campaign substantially increased LLIN coverage levels at the three sites to between 65.0% and 95.5% of households with at least one LLIN. In Walukuba, over the 28-mo post-intervention period

  10. [Plan to improve malaria control towards its elimination in Mesoamerica].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Mario Henry; Betanzos-Reyes, Angel Francisco

    2011-01-01

    To develop a plan to strengthen the control of malaria towards its elimination. In 2009, under the coordination of the National Public HealthInstitute ofMexico, atransdisciplinary equipment of technical and operative experts was conformed to carry out a situational analysis of malaria and control programs and for the selection of effective practices of intervention that would be incorporated to the plan, within the framework of an exercise in Theory of Change. Criteria for thestratificationof thelocalities, based ontheirtransmission characteristics were established. The structural and operative limitations of the control programs were identified. A plan of interventions was elaborated to improve the coverage of epidemiological surveillance, anti-malaria interventions and opportune diagnosis and treatment of cases. The plan delineates progressive phases of implementation: reorganization, intensification of interventions and evaluation of elimination feasibility. The adoption of a regional strategic plan will provide guidance and administrative elements to conform a system that coordinates the activities of the national control programs and facilitate the elimination of malaria in the region.

  11. Malaria vector control: from past to future.

    PubMed

    Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Barik, Tapan K; Reddy, B P Niranjan; Sharma, Poonam; Dash, Aditya P

    2011-04-01

    Malaria is one of the most common vector-borne diseases widespread in the tropical and subtropical regions. Despite considerable success of malaria control programs in the past, malaria still continues as a major public health problem in several countries. Vector control is an essential part for reducing malaria transmission and became less effective in recent years, due to many technical and administrative reasons, including poor or no adoption of alternative tools. Of the different strategies available for vector control, the most successful are indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), including long-lasting ITNs and materials. Earlier DDT spray has shown spectacular success in decimating disease vectors but resulted in development of insecticide resistance, and to control the resistant mosquitoes, organophosphates, carbamates, and synthetic pyrethroids were introduced in indoor residual spraying with needed success but subsequently resulted in the development of widespread multiple insecticide resistance in vectors. Vector control in many countries still use insecticides in the absence of viable alternatives. Few developments for vector control, using ovitraps, space spray, biological control agents, etc., were encouraging when used in limited scale. Likewise, recent introduction of safer vector control agents, such as insect growth regulators, biocontrol agents, and natural plant products have yet to gain the needed scale of utility for vector control. Bacterial pesticides are promising and are effective in many countries. Environmental management has shown sufficient promise for vector control and disease management but still needs advocacy for inter-sectoral coordination and sometimes are very work-intensive. The more recent genetic manipulation and sterile insect techniques are under development and consideration for use in routine vector control and for these, standardized procedures and methods are available but need thorough

  12. Development of Geohazard Estimation Program through the Analysis of Subsidence Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, S. O.; Min, K.

    2006-12-01

    Surface subsidence which occurs with several reasons, such as collapse of gangway, discharge of groundwater, compaction of weak rock mass, and tunnel excavation in shallow depth, gives rise to a serious problem in national infra-structures. Especially the subsidence occurs in urban area can make a huge problem in residential buildings or ground structures, to threaten the personal right to live. However the several decades' research on subsidence in Korea has been performed in a passive manner. Subsidence occurrence could not be predicted precisely, therefore a severe geohazard problem has been produced occasionally. In this study, consequently, the mechanism of subsidence has been examined first to quantify the process of subsidence occurrence. Through the quantitative analysis on the major geotechnical parameters affecting on the subsidence process, the passive approach on subsidence can be overcome. With many kinds of numerical studies, the major geotechnical parameters have been selected and the weighted values have been defined for each parameter. Also the authors developed the numerical program which can estimate the possibility of subsidence occurrence, and proposed the decision method for objective and quantitative guideline. It is anticipated that this research will be helpful to establish the geohazard map on subsidence occurrence area.

  13. The economic payoffs of integrated malaria control in the Zambian copperbelt between 1930 and 1950.

    PubMed

    Utzinger, Jürg; Tozan, Yesim; Doumani, Fadi; Singer, Burton H

    2002-08-01

    It has long been suggested that malaria is delaying the economic development of countries that are most severely affected by the disease. Several studies have documented the economic consequences of malaria at the household level, primarily in communities engaged in subsistence farming. A missing element is the appraisal of the economic impact of malaria on the industrial and service sectors that will probably become the backbone of many developing economies. We estimate the economic effects of integrated malaria control implemented during the colonial period and sustained for 20 years in four copper mining communities of the former Northern Rhodesia (now Zambia). Integrated malaria control was characterized by strong emphasis on environmental management, while part of the mining communities also benefited from rapid diagnosis and treatment and the use of bednets. The programmes were highly successful as an estimated 14,122 deaths, 517,284 malaria attacks and 942,347 work shift losses were averted. Overall, 127,226 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were averted per 3-year incremental period. The cumulative costs of malaria control interventions were 11,169,472 US dollars (in 1995 US dollars). Because the control programmes were so effective, the mining companies attracted a large reservoir of migrant labourers and sustained healthy work forces. The programmes averted an estimated 796,622 US dollars in direct treatment costs and 5,678,745 US dollars in indirect costs as a result of reduced work absenteeism. Within a few years of programme initiation, Northern Rhodesia became the leading copper producer in Africa, and mining generated the dominant share of national income. Copper production and revenues, which increased dramatically during malaria control interventions, amounted to the equivalent of 7.1 billion US dollars (in 1995 US dollars). Integrated malaria control in copper mining communities was a sound investment. It had payoff for public and

  14. A Review of the Quadrimester Program with Cost Estimates for a Proposed Quadrimester Program for the Lafayette Parish, Louisiana, Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crim, Roger D.

    This report studies the feasibility of several alternative quadrimester programs for year-round schools and attempts to determine if adoption of such a schedule would be beneficial for the Lafayette Parish school system. In addition to a discussion of the probable educational impact of various quadrimester programs, the author presents an analysis…

  15. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of September 2013 meeting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its fourth meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 11 to 13 September, 2013. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions included: recommendations for achieving universal coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets; guidance on estimating the longevity of insecticide-treated nets; improving capacity in entomology and vector control; a review of the latest evidence on intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy; improving dissemination of Malaria Policy Advisory Committee guidance; updates on the development of the global technical strategy for malaria control and elimination (2016–2025) and the global strategy for control and elimination of Plasmodium vivax; updates from the drug resistance and containment technical expert group, the evidence review group on malaria burden estimation, a consultation on malaria case management indicators, and the constitution of the surveillance, monitoring and evaluation technical expert group; subnational elimination criteria; and consideration for future evidence review groups, including diagnosis in low transmission settings and testing for Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency. Policy statements, position statements and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:24359206

  16. A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCarthy, Peter M.

    2006-01-01

    The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and

  17. Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  18. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference.

    PubMed

    Romer, Jeremy D; Gitelman, Alix I; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  19. How Many Deaf People Are There in the United States?: Estimates from the Survey of Income and Program Participation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mitchell, Ross E.

    2006-01-01

    The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) is one of a few national surveys that regularly collects data identifying the American population of persons with hearing loss or deafness. Estimates from the SIPP indicate that fewer than 1 in 20 Americans are currently deaf or hard of hearing. In round numbers, nearly 10,000,000 persons are…

  20. The Development of a Model for Estimating the Costs Associated with the Delivery of a Metals Cluster Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunt, Charles R.

    A study developed a model to assist school administrators to estimate costs associated with the delivery of a metals cluster program at Norfolk State College, Virginia. It sought to construct the model so that costs could be explained as a function of enrollment levels. Data were collected through a literature review, computer searches of the…

  1. Southeast Geyers Cooperative Tracer Evaluation and Testing Program for the Purpose of Estimating The Efficiency of Injection

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Smith

    2001-02-12

    The Southeast Geysers Cooperative Tracer Evaluation Program has been a joint project located in the SE part of the Geysers geothermal field, in Lake and Sonoma Counties, California. A new generation of environmentally benign vapor-phase tracers has been used to estimate the varying degrees to which injectate is being recovered following the significant increase of injected volumes within the Southeast Geysers.

  2. Estimates of Intraclass Correlation Coefficients from Longitudinal Group-Randomized Trials of Adolescent HIV/STI/Pregnancy Prevention Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glassman, Jill R.; Potter, Susan C.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Coyle, Karin K.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Group-randomized trials (GRTs) are one of the most rigorous methods for evaluating the effectiveness of group-based health risk prevention programs. Efficiently designing GRTs with a sample size that is sufficient for meeting the trial's power and precision goals while not wasting resources exceeding them requires estimates of the…

  3. Malaria ecology and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  4. Malaria Prophylaxis: A Comprehensive Review

    PubMed Central

    Castelli, Francesco; Odolini, Silvia; Autino, Beatrice; Foca, Emanuele; Russo, Rosario

    2010-01-01

    The flow of international travellers to and from malaria-endemic areas, especially Africa, has increased in recent years. Apart from the very high morbidity and mortality burden imposed on malaria-endemic areas, imported malaria is the main cause of fever possibly causing severe disease and death in travellers coming from tropical and subtropical areas, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of behavioural preventive measures (bed nets, repellents, etc.), adequate chemoprophylaxis and, in selected circumstances, stand-by emergency treatment may not be overemphasized. However, no prophylactic regimen may offer complete protection. Expert advice is needed to tailor prophylactic advice according to traveller (age, baseline clinical conditions, etc.) and travel (destination, season, etc.) characteristics in order to reduce malaria risk.

  5. Malaria: new vaccines for old?

    PubMed

    Waters, Andrew

    2006-02-24

    Detailed analyses of the 5500 genes revealed by the complete Plasmodium genome sequence are yielding new candidate parasite antigens and strategies that may contribute to a successful vaccine against malaria in the coming decade.

  6. Cost Effectiveness of Malaria Interventions from Preelimination through Elimination: a Study in Iran

    PubMed Central

    Rezaei-Hemami, Mohsen; Akbari-Sari, Ali; Raiesi, Ahmad; Vatandoost, Hassan; Majdzadeh, Reza

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria still is considered as a public health problem in Iran. The aim of the National Malaria Control Department is to reach the elimination by 2024. By decreasing the number of malaria cases in preelimination phase the cost effectiveness of malaria interventions decreases considerably. This study estimated the cost effectiveness of various strategies to combat malaria in preelimination and elimination phases in Iran. Methods: running costs of the interventions at each level of intervention was estimated by using evidence and expert opinions. The effect of each intervention was estimated using the documentary evidence available and expert opinions. Using a point estimate and distribution of each variable the sensitivity was evaluated with the Monte Carlo method. Results: The most cost-effective interventions were insecticide treated net (ITN), larviciding, surveillance for diagnosis and treatment of patients less than 24 hours, and indoor residual spraying (IRS) respectively, No related evidence found for the effectiveness of the border facilities. Conclusion: This study showed that interventions in the elimination phase of malaria have low cost effectiveness in Iran like many other countries. However ITN is the most cost effective intervention among the available interventions. PMID:25629064

  7. Microsatellite analysis of malaria parasites.

    PubMed

    Orjuela-Sánchez, Pamela; Brandi, Michelle C; Ferreira, Marcelo U

    2013-01-01

    Microsatellites have been increasingly used to investigate the population structure of malaria parasites, to map genetic loci contributing to phenotypes such as drug resistance and virulence in laboratory crosses and genome-wide association studies and to distinguish between treatment failures and new infections in clinical trials. Here, we provide optimized protocols for genotyping highly polymorphic microsatellites sampled from across the genomes of the human malaria parasites Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax that have been extensively used in research laboratories worldwide.

  8. The Effective Population Size of Malaria Mosquitoes: Large Impact of Vector Control

    PubMed Central

    Athrey, Giridhar; Hodges, Theresa K.; Reddy, Michael R.; Overgaard, Hans J.; Matias, Abrahan; Ridl, Frances C.; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Caccone, Adalgisa; Slotman, Michel A.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria vectors in sub-Saharan Africa have proven themselves very difficult adversaries in the global struggle against malaria. Decades of anti-vector interventions have yielded mixed results—with successful reductions in transmission in some areas and limited impacts in others. These varying successes can be ascribed to a lack of universally effective vector control tools, as well as the development of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. Understanding the impact of vector control on mosquito populations is crucial for planning new interventions and evaluating existing ones. However, estimates of population size changes in response to control efforts are often inaccurate because of limitations and biases in collection methods. Attempts to evaluate the impact of vector control on mosquito effective population size (Ne) have produced inconclusive results thus far. Therefore, we obtained data for 13–15 microsatellite markers for more than 1,500 mosquitoes representing multiple time points for seven populations of three important vector species—Anopheles gambiae, An. melas, and An. moucheti—in Equatorial Guinea. These populations were exposed to indoor residual spraying or long-lasting insecticidal nets in recent years. For comparison, we also analyzed data from two populations that have no history of organized vector control. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to reconstruct their demographic history, allowing us to evaluate the impact of these interventions on the effective population size. In six of the seven study populations, vector control had a dramatic impact on the effective population size, reducing Ne between 55%–87%, the exception being a single An. melas population. In contrast, the two negative control populations did not experience a reduction in effective population size. This study is the first to conclusively link anti-vector intervention programs in Africa to sharply reduced effective population sizes of malaria vectors

  9. Towards Improving Point-of-Care Diagnosis of Non-malaria Febrile Illness: A Metabolomics Approach

    PubMed Central

    Decuypere, Saskia; Maltha, Jessica; Deborggraeve, Stijn; Rattray, Nicholas J. W.; Issa, Guiraud; Bérenger, Kaboré; Lompo, Palpouguini; Tahita, Marc C.; Ruspasinghe, Thusitha; McConville, Malcolm; Goodacre, Royston; Tinto, Halidou; Jacobs, Jan; Carapetis, Jonathan R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Non-malaria febrile illnesses such as bacterial bloodstream infections (BSI) are a leading cause of disease and mortality in the tropics. However, there are no reliable, simple diagnostic tests for identifying BSI or other severe non-malaria febrile illnesses. We hypothesized that different infectious agents responsible for severe febrile illness would impact on the host metabololome in different ways, and investigated the potential of plasma metabolites for diagnosis of non-malaria febrile illness. Methodology We conducted a comprehensive mass-spectrometry based metabolomics analysis of the plasma of 61 children with severe febrile illness from a malaria-endemic rural African setting. Metabolite features characteristic for non-malaria febrile illness, BSI, severe anemia and poor clinical outcome were identified by receiver operating curve analysis. Principal Findings The plasma metabolome profile of malaria and non-malaria patients revealed fundamental differences in host response, including a differential activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. A simple corticosteroid signature was a good classifier of severe malaria and non-malaria febrile patients (AUC 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70–0.93). Patients with BSI were characterized by upregulated plasma bile metabolites; a signature of two bile metabolites was estimated to have a sensitivity of 98.1% (95% CI: 80.2–100) and a specificity of 82.9% (95% CI: 54.7–99.9) to detect BSI in children younger than 5 years. This BSI signature demonstrates that host metabolites can have a superior diagnostic sensitivity compared to pathogen-detecting tests to identify infections characterized by low pathogen load such as BSI. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential use of plasma metabolites to identify causality in children with severe febrile illness in malaria-endemic settings. PMID:26943791

  10. Seasonally dependent relationships between indicators of malaria transmission and disease provided by mathematical model simulations.

    PubMed

    Stuckey, Erin M; Smith, Thomas; Chitnis, Nakul

    2014-09-01

    Evaluating the effectiveness of malaria control interventions on the basis of their impact on transmission as well as impact on morbidity and mortality is becoming increasingly important as countries consider pre-elimination and elimination as well as disease control. Data on prevalence and transmission are traditionally obtained through resource-intensive epidemiological and entomological surveys that become difficult as transmission decreases. This work employs mathematical modeling to examine the relationships between malaria indicators allowing more easily measured data, such as routine health systems data on case incidence, to be translated into measures of transmission and other malaria indicators. Simulations of scenarios with different levels of malaria transmission, patterns of seasonality and access to treatment were run with an ensemble of models of malaria epidemiology and within-host dynamics, as part of the OpenMalaria modeling platform. For a given seasonality profile, regression analysis mapped simulation results of malaria indicators, such as annual average entomological inoculation rate, prevalence, incidence of uncomplicated and severe episodes, and mortality, to an expected range of values of any of the other indicators. Results were validated by comparing simulated relationships between indicators with previously published data on these same indicators as observed in malaria endemic areas. These results allow for direct comparisons of malaria transmission intensity estimates made using data collected with different methods on different indicators. They also address key concerns with traditional methods of quantifying transmission in areas of differing transmission intensity and sparse data. Although seasonality of transmission is often ignored in data compilations, the models suggest it can be critically important in determining the relationship between transmission and disease. Application of these models could help public health officials

  11. The Limits and Intensity of Plasmodium falciparum Transmission: Implications for Malaria Control and Elimination Worldwide

    PubMed Central

    Guerra, Carlos A; Gikandi, Priscilla W; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Smith, Dave L; Hay, Simon I; Snow, Robert W

    2008-01-01

    Background The efficient allocation of financial resources for malaria control using appropriate combinations of interventions requires accurate information on the geographic distribution of malaria risk. An evidence-based description of the global range of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and its endemicity has not been assembled in almost 40 y. This paper aims to define the global geographic distribution of P. falciparum malaria in 2007 and to provide a preliminary description of its transmission intensity within this range. Methods and Findings The global spatial distribution of P. falciparum malaria was generated using nationally reported case-incidence data, medical intelligence, and biological rules of transmission exclusion, using temperature and aridity limits informed by the bionomics of dominant Anopheles vector species. A total of 4,278 spatially unique cross-sectional survey estimates of P. falciparum parasite rates were assembled. Extractions from a population surface showed that 2.37 billion people lived in areas at any risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2007. Globally, almost 1 billion people lived under unstable, or extremely low, malaria risk. Almost all P. falciparum parasite rates above 50% were reported in Africa in a latitude band consistent with the distribution of Anopheles gambiae s.s. Conditions of low parasite prevalence were also common in Africa, however. Outside of Africa, P. falciparum malaria prevalence is largely hypoendemic (less than 10%), with the median below 5% in the areas surveyed. Conclusions This new map is a plausible representation of the current extent of P. falciparum risk and the most contemporary summary of the population at risk of P. falciparum malaria within these limits. For 1 billion people at risk of unstable malaria transmission, elimination is epidemiologically feasible, and large areas of Africa are more amenable to control than appreciated previously. The release of this information in the public domain will

  12. Is there evidence for dual causation between malaria and socioeconomic status? Findings from rural Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Somi, Masha F; Butler, James R G; Vahid, Farshid; Njau, Joseph; Kachur, S Patrick; Abdulla, Salim

    2007-12-01

    Malaria's relationship with socioeconomic status at the macroeconomic level has been established. This is the first study to explore this relationship at the microeconomic (household) level and estimate the direction of association. Malaria prevalence was measured by parasitemia, and household socioeconomic status was measured using an asset based index. Results from an instrumental variable probit model suggest that socioeconomic status is negatively associated with malaria parasitemia. Other variables that are significantly associated with parasitemia include age of the individual, use of a mosquito net on the night before interview, the number of people living in the household, whether the household was residing at their farm home at the time of interview, household wall construction, and the region of residence. Matching estimators indicate that malaria parasitemia is associated with reduced household socioeconomic status.

  13. Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in children.

    PubMed

    Barber, Bridget E; William, Timothy; Jikal, Mohammad; Jilip, Jenarun; Dhararaj, Prabakaran; Menon, Jayaram; Yeo, Tsin W; Anstey, Nicholas M

    2011-05-01

    Plasmodium knowlesi can cause severe malaria in adults; however, descriptions of clinical disease in children are lacking. We reviewed case records of children (age <15 years) with a malaria diagnosis at Kudat District Hospital, serving a largely deforested area of Sabah, Malaysia, during January-November 2009. Sixteen children with PCR-confirmed P. knowlesi monoinfection were compared with 14 children with P. falciparum monoinfection diagnosed by microscopy or PCR. Four children with knowlesi malaria had a hemoglobin level at admission of <10.0 g/dL (minimum lowest level 6.4 g/dL). Minimum level platelet counts were lower in knowlesi than in falciparum malaria (median 76,500/μL vs. 156,000/mL; p = 0.01). Most (81%) children with P. knowlesi malaria received chloroquine and primaquine; median parasite clearance time was 2 days (range 1-5 days). P. knowlesi is the most common cause of childhood malaria in Kudat. Although infection is generally uncomplicated, anemia is common and thrombocytopenia universal. Transmission dynamics in this region require additional investigation.

  14. Blood Coagulation, Inflammation and Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Francischetti, Ivo M. B.; Seydel, Karl B.; Monteiro, Robson Q.

    2010-01-01

    I. ABSTRACT Malaria remains a highly prevalent disease in more than 90 countries and accounts for at least 1 million deaths every year. Plasmodium falciparum infection is often associated with a procoagulant tonus characterized by thrombocytopenia and activation of the coagulation cascade and fibrinolytic system; however, bleeding and hemorrhage are uncommon events, suggesting that a compensated state of blood coagulation activation occurs in malaria. This article i) reviews the literature related to blood coagulation and malaria in a historic perspective, ii) describes basic mechanisms of coagulation, anticoagulation, and fibrinolysis, iii) explains the laboratory changes in acute and compensated disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), iv) discusses the implications of tissue factor (TF) expression in the endothelium of P. falciparum-infected patients, and v) emphasizes the pro-coagulant role of parasitized erythrocytes (pRBC) and activated platelets in the pathogenesis of malaria. This article also presents the ‘Tissue Factor Model’ (TFM) for malaria pathogenesis, which places TF as the interface between sequestration, endothelial cell activation, blood coagulation disorder and inflammation often associated with the disease. The relevance of the coagulation-inflammation cycle for the multiorgan dysfunction and coma is discussed in the context of malaria pathogenesis. PMID:18260002

  15. Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Malawi with more than 6 million episodes reported each year. Malaria poses a huge economic burden to Malawi in terms of the direct cost of treating malaria patients and also indirect costs resulting from workdays lost in agriculture and industry and absenteeism from school. Malawi implements malaria control activities within the Roll Back Malaria framework, with the objective to provide those most at risk (i.e. children under five years, pregnant woman and individuals with suppressed immune systems) access to personal and community protective measures. However, at present there is no mechanism by which to target the most 'at risk' populations ahead of an impending epidemic. Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the mosquito and the availability of breeding sites, but also socio-economic conditions such as levels of urbanisation, poverty and education, which influence human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases at the district level from July 2004 - June 2011, we use a spatio-temporal modelling framework to model variations in malaria risk in Malawi. Climatic and topographic variations are accounted for using an interpolation method to relate gridded products to administrative districts. District level data is tested in the model to account for confounding factors, including the proportion of the population living in urban areas; residing in traditional housing; with no toilet facilities; who do not attend school, etc, the number of health facilities per population and yearly estimates of insecticide-treated mosquito net distribution. In order to account for

  16. [Malaria and intestinal protozoa].

    PubMed

    Rojo-Marcos, Gerardo; Cuadros-González, Juan

    2016-03-01

    Malaria is life threatening and requires urgent diagnosis and treatment. Incidence and mortality are being reduced in endemic areas. Clinical features are unspecific so in imported cases it is vital the history of staying in a malarious area. The first line treatments for Plasmodium falciparum are artemisinin combination therapies, chloroquine in most non-falciparum and intravenous artesunate if any severity criteria. Human infections with intestinal protozoa are distributed worldwide with a high global morbid-mortality. They cause diarrhea and sometimes invasive disease, although most are asymptomatic. In our environment populations at higher risk are children, including adopted abroad, immune-suppressed, travelers, immigrants, people in contact with animals or who engage in oral-anal sex. Diagnostic microscopic examination has low sensitivity improving with antigen detection or molecular methods. Antiparasitic resistances are emerging lately.

  17. Pulmonary pathology in pediatric cerebral malaria.

    PubMed

    Milner, Danny; Factor, Rachel; Whitten, Rich; Carr, Richard A; Kamiza, Steve; Pinkus, Geraldine; Molyneux, Malcolm; Taylor, Terrie

    2013-12-01

    Respiratory signs are common in African children where malaria is highly endemic, and thus, parsing the role of pulmonary pathology in illness is challenging. We examined the lungs of 100 children from an autopsy series in Blantyre, Malawi, many of whom death was attributed to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Our aim was to describe the pathologic manifestations of fatal malaria; to understand the role of parasites, pigment, and macrophages; and to catalog comorbidities. From available patients, which included 55 patients with cerebral malaria and 45 controls, we obtained 4 cores of lung tissue for immunohistochemistry and morphological evaluation. We found that, in patients with cerebral malaria, large numbers of malaria parasites were present in pulmonary alveolar capillaries, together with extensive deposits of malaria pigment (hemozoin). The number of pulmonary macrophages in this vascular bed did not differ between patients with cerebral malaria, noncerebral malaria, and nonmalarial diagnoses. Comorbidities found in some cerebral malaria patients included pneumonia, pulmonary edema, hemorrhage, and systemic activation of coagulation. We conclude that the respiratory distress seen in patients with cerebral malaria does not appear to be anatomic in origin but that increasing malaria pigment is strongly associated with cerebral malaria at autopsy.

  18. GEODYN programmer's guide, volume 2, part 2. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, N. E.; Dao, N. C.; Martin, T. V.; Goad, C. C.; Boulware, N. L.; Chin, M. M.

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for executive control routine for orbit integration of artificial satellites is presented. At the beginning of each arc, the program initiates required constants as well as the variational partials at epoch. If epoch needs to be reset to a previous time, the program negates the stepsize, and calls for integration backward to the desired time. After backward integration is completed, the program resets the stepsize to the proper positive quantity.

  19. International population movements and regional Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies

    PubMed Central

    Tatem, Andrew J.; Smith, David L.

    2010-01-01

    Calls for the eradication of malaria require the development of global and regional strategies based on a strong and consistent evidence base. Evidence from the previous global malaria eradication program and more recent transborder control campaigns have shown the importance of accounting for human movement in introducing infections to areas targeted for elimination. Here, census-based migration data were analyzed with network analysis tools, Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission maps, and global population databases to map globally communities of countries linked by relatively high levels of infection movements. The likely principal sources and destinations of imported cases in each region were also mapped. Results indicate that certain groups of countries, such as those in West Africa and central Asia are much more strongly connected by relatively high levels of population and infection movement than others. In contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and Myanmar display significantly greater isolation in terms of likely infection movements in and out. The mapping here of both communities of countries linked by likely higher levels of infection movement, and “natural” migration boundaries that display reduced movement of people and infections between regions has practical utility. These maps can inform the design of malaria elimination strategies by identifying regional communities of countries afforded protection from recolonization by surrounding regions of reduced migration. For more isolated countries, a nationally focused control or elimination program is likely to stand a better chance of success than those receiving high levels of visitors and migrants from high-transmission regions. PMID:20566870

  20. Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

    PubMed

    Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that

  1. [Current malaria situation in Turkmenistan].

    PubMed

    Amangel'diev, K A

    2001-01-01

    Malaria is one of the main health problems facing most developing countries having a hot climate. It is a problem in Turkmenistan. The country is situated in Central Asia, north of the Kopetdag mountains, between the Caspian Sea to the west and the Amu-Darya river to the east. Turkmenistan stretches for a distance of 1,100 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. It borders Kazakhstan in the north, Uzbekistan in the east and north-east, Iran in the south, and Afghanistan in the south-east. Seven malaria vector species are found in Turkmenistan, the main ones being Anopheles superpictus, An. pulcherrimus, and An. martinius. The potentially endemic area consists of the floodplains of the Tejen and Murgab rivers, with a long chain of reservoirs built along them. In 1980 most cases of imported malaria were recorded in military personnel who had returned from service in Afghanistan. In the past years, only tertian (Plasmodium vivax) malaria has been recorded and there have been no death from malaria over that period. In the Serkhetabad (Gushgi) district there are currently 5 active foci of malaria infection, with a population of 22,000 people. In 1999, forty nine cases of P. vivax malaria were recorded in Turkmenistan. Of them, 36 cases, including 4 children under 14 years were diagnosed for the first time while 13 were relapses. There were 88 fewer cases than those in the previous year (by a factor of 2.8). There were 17 more cases of imported malaria than those in 1998 (by a factor of 1.7), most of which occurred in the foci of malaria infection (Serkhetabad, Tagtabazar, and Kerki districts), in the city of Ashkhabat and in Lebap, Dashkhovuz and Akhal Regions. The emergence of indigenous malaria in the border areas was due to the importation of the disease at intervals by infected mosquitoes flying in from neighbouring countries (e.g. Afghanistan), the lack of drugs to treat the first cases and the lack of alternative insecticides. Most patients suffer

  2. Malaria related care-seeking-behaviour and expenditures in urban settings: A household survey in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Beogo, Idrissa; Huang, Nicole; Drabo, Maxime K; Yé, Yazoumé

    2016-08-01

    In Sub-Sahara Africa, malaria inflicts a high healthcare expenditure to individuals. However, little is known about healthcare expenditure to individual affected by malaria and determinants of healthcare seeking behaviour in urban settings where private sector is thriving. This study investigated the level and correlates of expenditure among individuals with self-reported malaria episode in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. A cross-sectional household survey conducted in August-November 2011 in Ouagadougou covered 8,243 individuals (1,600 households). Using Generalized Estimating Equations, the analysis included 1082 individuals from 715 households, who reported an episode of malaria. Of individuals surveyed, 38.3% sought care from public, 27.4% from private providers, and, 34.2% self-medicated. The median cost for malaria treatment was USD10.1 (4,850.0XOF) with significant different between public, private and self-medication (p<0.001). In public primary care health facilities, the median cost was USD8.4 (4,050.0XOF) for uncomplicated malaria and USD15.2 (7,333.5XOF) for severe malaria. In private-for-profit facilities run by a medical doctor, the median cost was USD30.3 (14,600.0XOF) for uncomplicated malaria and USD 43.0 (20,725.0XOF) for severe malaria. Regardless of the source of care, patients with insurance incurred significantly higher expenditure compared to those without insurance (p<0.001) and medicine accounted for the largest share of the expenditure. The type of provider, having insurance, and the severity of the malaria predict the amount of money spent. The high financial cost of malaria treatment regardless of the providers poses threat to the goal of universal access to malaria interventions, the unique way to achieve elimination goals.

  3. Malaria evolution in South Asia: knowledge for control and elimination.

    PubMed

    Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Chery, Laura; Basu, Analabha; Duraisingh, Manoj T; Escalante, Ananias; Fowble, Joseph; Guler, Jennifer L; Herricks, Thurston; Kumar, Ashwani; Majumder, Partha; Maki, Jennifer; Mascarenhas, Anjali; Rodrigues, Janneth; Roy, Bikram; Sen, Somdutta; Shastri, Jayanthi; Smith, Joseph; Valecha, Neena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2012-03-01

    The study of malaria parasites on the Indian subcontinent should help us understand unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. The Malaria Evolution in South Asia (MESA) research program is one of ten International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. In this second of two reviews, we describe why population structures of Plasmodia in India will be characterized and how we will determine their consequences on disease presentation, outcome and patterns. Specific projects will determine if genetic diversity, possibly driven by parasites with higher genetic plasticity, plays a role in changing epidemiology, pathogenesis, vector competence of parasite populations and whether innate human genetic traits protect Indians from malaria today. Deep local clinical knowledge of malaria in India will be supplemented by basic scientists who bring new research tools. Such tools will include whole genome sequencing and analysis methods; in vitro assays to measure genome plasticity, RBC cytoadhesion, invasion, and deformability; mosquito infectivity assays to evaluate changing parasite-vector compatibilities; and host genetics to understand protective traits in Indian populations. The MESA-ICEMR study sites span diagonally across India and include a mixture of very urban and rural hospitals, each with very different disease patterns and patient populations. Research partnerships include government-associated research institutes, private medical schools, city and state government hospitals, and hospitals with industry ties. Between 2012 and 2017, in addition to developing clinical research and basic science infrastructure at new clinical sites, our training workshops will engage new scientists and clinicians throughout South Asia in the malaria research field.

  4. Malaria Evolution in South Asia: Knowledge for Control and Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Chery, Laura; Basu, Analabha; Duraisingh, Manoj T.; Escalante, Ananias; Fowble, Joseph; Guler, Jennifer L.; Herricks, Thurston; Kumar, Ashwani; Majumder, Partha; Maki, Jennifer; Mascarenhas, Anjali; Rodrigues, Janneth; Roy, Bikram; Sen, Somdutta; Shastri, Jayanthi; Smith, Joseph; Valecha, Neena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K.

    2013-01-01

    The study of malaria parasites on the Indian subcontinent should help us understand unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and from Plasmodium vivax infections. The Malaria Evolution in South Asia (MESA) research program is one of ten International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institute of Health. In this second of two reviews, we describe why population structures of Plasmodia in India will be characterized and how we will determine their consequences on disease presentation, outcome and patterns. Specific projects will determine if genetic diversity, possibly driven by parasites with higher genetic plasticity, plays a role in changing epidemiology, pathogenesis, vector competence of parasite populations, and whether innate human genetic traits protect Indians from malaria today. Deep local clinical knowledge of malaria in India will be supplemented by basic scientists who bring new research tools. Such tools will include whole genome sequencing and analysis methods; in vitro assays to measure genome plasticity, RBC cytoadhesion, invasion, and deformability; mosquito infectivity assays to evaluate changing parasite-vector compatibilities; and host genetics to understand protective traits in Indian populations. The MESA-ICEMR study sites span diagonally across India, including a mixture of very urban and rural hospitals, each with very different disease patterns and patient populations. Research partnerships include government-associated research institutes, private medical schools, city and state government hospitals, and hospitals with industry ties. Between 2012-2017, in addition to developing clinical research and basic science infrastructure at new clinical sites, our training workshops will engage new scientists and clinicians throughout South Asia in the malaria research field. PMID:22266213

  5. WTAQ: A Computer Program for Calculating Drawdowns and Estimating Hydraulic Properties for Confined and Water-Table Aquifers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Barlow, Paul M.; Moench, Allen F.

    1999-01-01

    The computer program WTAQ calculates hydraulic-head drawdowns in a confined or water-table aquifer that result from pumping at a well of finite or infinitesimal diameter. The program is based on an analytical model of axial-symmetric ground-water flow in a homogeneous and anisotropic aquifer. The program allows for well-bore storage and well-bore skin at the pumped well and for delayed drawdown response at an observation well; by including these factors, it is possible to accurately evaluate the specific storage of a water-table aquifer from early-time drawdown data in observation wells and piezometers. For water-table aquifers, the program allows for either delayed or instantaneous drainage from the unsaturated zone. WTAQ calculates dimensionless or dimensional theoretical drawdowns that can be used with measured drawdowns at observation points to estimate the hydraulic properties of confined and water-table aquifers. Three sample problems illustrate use of WTAQ for estimating horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, and specific yield of a water-table aquifer by type-curve methods and by an automatic parameter-estimation method.

  6. State-level evaluations of the Weatherization Assistance Program in 1990--1996: A metaevaluation that estimates national savings

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, L.

    1997-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (the Program) is implemented in all fifty states. The Program strives to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings occupied by low-income persons in order to reduce their energy consumption, lower their fuel bills, increase the comfort of their homes, and safeguard their health. It targets vulnerable groups including the elderly, people with disabilities, and families with children. The most recent comprehensive National Evaluation of the Program was based on an analysis of changes in pre- and post-weatherization energy consumption for homes weatherized in 1989. The National Evaluation estimated average savings for several fuel types. For dwellings that heated primarily with natural gas, which made up over 50% of the sample, average savings per dwelling were 17.3 MBtu, which was 18.3% of space heating consumption, or 13.0% of the total consumption of natural gas for all end users.

  7. A national hypertension treatment program in Germany and its estimated impact on costs, life expectancy, and cost-effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Gandjour, Afschin; Stock, Stephanie

    2007-10-01

    Almost 15 million Germans may suffer from untreated hypertension. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national hypertension treatment program compared to no program. A Markov decision model from the perspective of the statutory health insurance (SHI) was built. All data were taken from secondary sources. The target population consists of hypertensive male and female patients at high or low risk for cardiovascular events at different age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The analysis shows fairly moderate cost-effectiveness ratios even for low-risk groups (less than 12,000 euros per life year gained). In women at high risk antihypertensive treatment even leads to savings. This suggests that a national hypertension treatment program provides good value for money. Given the considerable costs of the program itself, any savings from avoiding long-term consequences of hypertension are likely to be offset, however.

  8. Malaria, photomicrograph of cellular parasites (image)

    MedlinePlus

    Malaria is a disease caused by parasites. This picture shows dark orange-stained malaria parasites inside red blood cells (a) and outside the cells (b). Note the large cells that look like targets; ...

  9. Malaria, microscopic view of cellular parasites (image)

    MedlinePlus

    Malaria is a disease caused by parasites that are carried by mosquitoes. Once in the bloodstream, the parasite inhabits the red blood cell (RBC). This picture shows purple-stained malaria parasites inside red blood cells.

  10. Review of Evaluation, Measurement and Verification Approaches Used to Estimate the Load Impacts and Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Messenger, Mike; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Golemboski, Bill; Goldman, Charles A.; Schiller, Steven R.

    2010-04-14

    Public and private funding for end-use energy efficiency actions is expected to increase significantly in the United States over the next decade. For example, Barbose et al (2009) estimate that spending on ratepayer-funded energy efficiency programs in the U.S. could increase from $3.1 billion in 2008 to $7.5 and 12.4 billion by 2020 under their medium and high scenarios. This increase in spending could yield annual electric energy savings ranging from 0.58% - 0.93% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020, up from 0.34% of retail sales in 2008. Interest in and support for energy efficiency has broadened among national and state policymakers. Prominent examples include {approx}$18 billion in new funding for energy efficiency programs (e.g., State Energy Program, Weatherization, and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants) in the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Increased funding for energy efficiency should result in more benefits as well as more scrutiny of these results. As energy efficiency becomes a more prominent component of the U.S. national energy strategy and policies, assessing the effectiveness and energy saving impacts of energy efficiency programs is likely to become increasingly important for policymakers and private and public funders of efficiency actions. Thus, it is critical that evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) is carried out effectively and efficiently, which implies that: (1) Effective program evaluation, measurement, and verification (EM&V) methodologies and tools are available to key stakeholders (e.g., regulatory agencies, program administrators, consumers, and evaluation consultants); and (2) Capacity (people and infrastructure resources) is available to conduct EM&V activities and report results in ways that support program improvement and provide data that reliably compares achieved results against goals and similar programs in other jurisdictions (benchmarking). The National Action Plan for Energy

  11. Malaria infection and human evolution.

    PubMed

    Sabbatani, Sergio; Manfredi, Roberto; Fiorino, Sirio

    2010-03-01

    During the evolution of the genus Homo, with regard to the species habilis, erectus and sapiens, malaria has played a key biological role in influencing human development. The plasmodia causing malaria have evolved in two ways, in biological and phylogenetic terms: Plasmodium vivax, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium ovale appear to have either coevolved with human mankind, or encountered human species during the most ancient phases of Homo evolution; on the other hand, Plasmodium falciparum has been transmitted to humans by monkeys in a more recent period, probably between the end of the Mesolithic and the beginning of the Neolithic age. The authors show both direct and indirect biomolecular evidence of malarial infection, detected in buried subjects, dating to ancient times and brought to light in the course of archaeological excavations in major Mediterranean sites. In this review of the literature the authors present scientific evidence confirming the role of malaria in affecting the evolution of populations in Mediterranean countries. The people living in several different Mediterranean regions, the cradle of western civilization, have been progressively influenced by malaria in the course of the spread of this endemic disease in recent millennia. In addition, populations affected by endemic malaria progressively developed cultural, dietary and behavioural adaptation mechanisms, which contributed to diminish the risk of disease. These habits were probably not fully conscious. Nevertheless it may be thought that both these customs and biological modifications, caused by malarial plasmodia, favoured the emergence of groups of people with greater resistance to malaria. All these factors have diminished the unfavourable demographic impact of the disease, also positively influencing the general development and growth of civilization.

  12. Taking a Bite out of Malaria: Controlled Human Malaria Infection by Needle and Syringe

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-01-01

    2013 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2013 to 00-00-2013 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Taking a Bite out of Malaria : Controlled Human Malaria ...American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Editorial Taking a Bite out of Malaria : Controlled Human Malaria Infection by Needle and Syringe Judith E...organism malaria vaccine, regardless of whether the parasite is attenuated by radiation, genetic modification, or concurrent chemoprophy- laxis. The whole

  13. Vaccine approaches to malaria control and elimination: Insights from mathematical models.

    PubMed

    White, Michael T; Verity, Robert; Churcher, Thomas S; Ghani, Azra C

    2015-12-22

    A licensed malaria vaccine would provide a valuable new tool for malaria control and elimination efforts. Several candidate vaccines targeting different stages of the malaria parasite's lifecycle are currently under development, with one candidate, RTS,S/AS01 for the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection, having recently completed Phase III trials. Predicting the public health impact of a candidate malaria vaccine requires using clinical trial data to estimate the vaccine's efficacy profile--the initial efficacy following vaccination and the pattern of waning of efficacy over time. With an estimated vaccine efficacy profile, the effects of vaccination on malaria transmission can be simulated with the aid of mathematical models. Here, we provide an overview of methods for estimating the vaccine efficacy profiles of pre-erythrocytic vaccines and transmission-blocking vaccines from clinical trial data. In the case of RTS,S/AS01, model estimates from Phase II clinical trial data indicate a bi-phasic exponential profile of efficacy against infection, with efficacy waning rapidly in the first 6 months after vaccination followed by a slower rate of waning over the next 4 years. Transmission-blocking vaccines have yet to be tested in large-scale Phase II or Phase III clinical trials so we review ongoing work investigating how a clinical trial might be designed to ensure that vaccine efficacy can be estimated with sufficient statistical power. Finally, we demonstrate how parameters estimated from clinical trials can be used to predict the impact of vaccination campaigns on malaria using a mathematical model of malaria transmission.

  14. Malaria research and eradication in the USSR

    PubMed Central

    Bruce-Chwatt, Leonard J.

    1959-01-01

    Relatively little is known outside the USSR about the past history of malaria in that country, the contribution of its scientists to malaria research, the recent progress of Soviet malariology, or the achievements of the Soviet Union in the eradication of malaria. These achievements are of particular interest because the general strategy of malaria eradication in the USSR has many technical, administrative, and economic and social features not seen elsewhere. PMID:13805136

  15. The economic and social burden of malaria.

    PubMed

    Sachs, Jeffrey; Malaney, Pia

    2002-02-07

    Where malaria prospers most, human societies have prospered least. The global distribution of per-capita gross domestic product shows a striking correlation between malaria and poverty, and malaria-endemic countries also have lower rates of economic growth. There are multiple channels by which malaria impedes development, including effects on fertility, population growth, saving and investment, worker productivity, absenteeism, premature mortality and medical costs.

  16. Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Kelly W.; Lewis, David J.

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented—from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)—to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing ‘matching’ to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods—an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators—due to the presence of unobservable bias—that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case

  17. Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach

    PubMed Central

    Capinha, César; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions. PMID:27814371

  18. Mapping Risk of Malaria Transmission in Mainland Portugal Using a Mathematical Modelling Approach.

    PubMed

    Gomes, Eduardo; Capinha, César; Rocha, Jorge; Sousa, Carla

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is currently one of the world´s major health problems. About a half-million deaths are recorded every year. In Portugal, malaria cases were significantly high until the end of the 1950s but the disease was considered eliminated in 1973. In the past few years, endemic malaria cases have been recorded in some European countries. With the increasing human mobility from countries with endemic malaria to Portugal, there is concern about the resurgence of this disease in the country. Here, we model and map the risk of malaria transmission for mainland Portugal, considering 3 different scenarios of existing imported infections. This risk assessment resulted from entomological studies on An. atroparvus, the only known mosquito capable of transmitting malaria in the study area. We used the malariogenic potential (determined by receptivity, infectivity and vulnerability) applied over geospatial data sets to estimate spatial variation in malaria risk. The results suggest that the risk exists, and the hotspots are concentrated in the northeast region of the country and in the upper and lower Alentejo regions.

  19. Dredging Operations Technical Support Program. Planning-Level Cost Estimates of Dredged Material Containment Islands in New York Harbor.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-04-01

    WES). Three sites are ... *considered: a. A--East Bank (off East Bank and Coney Island ). .. b. B--West Bank (Lower Bay west to Chapel Hill Channel). c...PROGRAM "P." US~~o ArCop MISCELLANEOUS PAPER D-88 3 PLANNING-LEVEL COST ESTIMATES OF AD-A194 812 DREDGED MATERIAL CONTAINMENT ISLANDS IN NEW YORK HARBOR...10278-0090 11. TITLE (include Security Classification) -’.. Planning-Level Cost Estimates of Dredged Material Containment Islands in New York Harbor

  20. Estimating the return on investment in disease management programs using a pre-post analysis.

    PubMed

    Fetterolf, Donald; Wennberg, David; Devries, Andrea

    2004-01-01

    Disease management programs have become increasingly popular over the past 5-10 years. Recent increases in overall medical costs have precipitated new concerns about the cost-effectiveness of medical management programs that have extended to the program directors for these programs. Initial success of the disease management movement is being challenged on the grounds that reported results have been the result of the application of faulty, if intuitive, methodologies. This paper discusses the use of "pre-post" methodology approaches in the analysis of disease management programs, and areas where application of this approach can result in spurious results and incorrect financial outcome assessments. The paper includes a checklist of these items for use by operational staff working with the programs, and a comprehensive bibliography that addresses many of the issues discussed.

  1. UK malaria treatment guidelines 2016.

    PubMed

    Lalloo, David G; Shingadia, Delane; Bell, David J; Beeching, Nicholas J; Whitty, Christopher J M; Chiodini, Peter L

    2016-06-01

    1.Malaria is the tropical disease most commonly imported into the UK, with 1300-1800 cases reported each year, and 2-11 deaths. 2. Approximately three quarters of reported malaria cases in the UK are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is capable of invading a high proportion of red blood cells and rapidly leading to severe or life-threatening multi-organ disease. 3. Most non-falciparum malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium vivax; a few cases are caused by the other species of plasmodium: Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae or Plasmodium knowlesi. 4. Mixed infections with more than one species of parasite can occur; they commonly involve P. falciparum with the attendant risks of severe malaria. 5. There are no typical clinical features of malaria; even fever is not invariably present. Malaria in children (and sometimes in adults) may present with misleading symptoms such as gastrointestinal features, sore throat or lower respiratory complaints. 6. A diagnosis of malaria must always be sought in a feverish or sick child or adult who has visited malaria-endemic areas. Specific country information on malaria can be found at http://travelhealthpro.org.uk/. P. falciparum infection rarely presents more than six months after exposure but presentation of other species can occur more than a year after exposure. 7. Management of malaria depends on awareness of the diagnosis and on performing the correct diagnostic tests: the diagnosis cannot be excluded until more than one blood specimen has been examined. Other travel related infections, especially viral haemorrhagic fevers, should also be considered. 8. The optimum diagnostic procedure is examination of thick and thin blood films by an expert to detect and speciate the malarial parasites. P. falciparum and P. vivax (depending upon the product) malaria can be diagnosed almost as accurately using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which detect plasmodial antigens. RDTs for other Plasmodium species are not as reliable. 9

  2. New guidelines on malaria prevention: A summary.

    PubMed

    Swales, Claire A; Chiodini, Peter L; Bannister, Barbara A

    2007-02-01

    Travellers to many tropical areas remain at risk of contracting malaria. Resistance of malaria parasites to a number of drugs continues to increase in degree and distribution, so that some older, trusted prophylactic drugs, such as chloroquine, are no longer useful in some parts of the world. Despite the introduction of new drugs and the reduction of malaria risk in some areas, such as parts of India, the number of people travelling continues to increase and malaria reports in the UK are not decreasing. New updated prevention guidelines from the Health Protection Agency Advisory Committee on Malaria Prevention (ACMP) in UK travellers (Chiodini P, Hill D, Lalloo D, Lea G, Walker E, Whitty C, et al. Guidelines for malaria prevention in travellers from the United Kingdom. London: Health Protection Agency; January 2007. Available from: http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/malaria/default.htm) aim to raise awareness of the risks of malaria and help UK travel health advisors in giving malaria prevention advice to all those who need it. Together with the ACMP malaria treatment guidelines it is hoped that the risk of illness and death from malaria in UK travellers can be reduced. This article summarises the new ACMP malaria prevention guidelines.

  3. Some Lessons for the Future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955–1969)

    PubMed Central

    Nájera, José A.; González-Silva, Matiana; Alonso, Pedro L.

    2011-01-01

    Encouraged by the early success of using dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) against malaria, the World Health Organization (WHO) embarked on the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) in 1955. Fourteen years later, the campaign was discontinued when it was recognised that eradication was not achievable with the available means in many areas, although the long-term goal remained unchanged. During the GMEP, malaria was permanently eliminated from many regions. In other areas, however, substantial gains were lost in resurgences, sometimes of epidemic proportions. During the 1970s and 1980s, because of economic and financial crises, international support for malaria control declined rapidly, but in the past decade, following increasing demands from endemic countries and promising results from scaling up of control activities, interest in malaria elimination and the long-term goal of eradication has received international political and financial support. In 2007, there was a renewed call for malaria eradication and a consultative process to define a research and development agenda for malaria eradication (malERA) was established. Lessons learned from the GMEP (1955–1969) highlight the fact that no single strategy can be applicable everywhere and that a long-term commitment with a flexible strategy that includes community involvement, integration with health systems, and the development of agile surveillance systems is needed. PMID:21311585

  4. Some lessons for the future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955-1969).

    PubMed

    Nájera, José A; González-Silva, Matiana; Alonso, Pedro L

    2011-01-25

    Encouraged by the early success of using dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) against malaria, the World Health Organization (WHO) embarked on the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) in 1955. Fourteen years later, the campaign was discontinued when it was recognised that eradication was not achievable with the available means in many areas, although the long-term goal remained unchanged. During the GMEP, malaria was permanently eliminated from many regions. In other areas, however, substantial gains were lost in resurgences, sometimes of epidemic proportions. During the 1970s and 1980s, because of economic and financial crises, international support for malaria control declined rapidly, but in the past decade, following increasing demands from endemic countries and promising results from scaling up of control activities, interest in malaria elimination and the long-term goal of eradication has received international political and financial support. In 2007, there was a renewed call for malaria eradication and a consultative process to define a research and development agenda for malaria eradication (malERA) was established. Lessons learned from the GMEP (1955-1969) highlight the fact that no single strategy can be applicable everywhere and that a long-term commitment with a flexible strategy that includes community involvement, integration with health systems, and the development of agile surveillance systems is needed.

  5. Investigating the Pathogenesis of Severe Malaria: A Multidisciplinary and Cross-Geographical Approach.

    PubMed

    Wassmer, Samuel C; Taylor, Terrie E; Rathod, Pradipsinh K; Mishra, Saroj K; Mohan