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Sample records for malaria programs estimation

  1. Using rainfall estimates to predict malaria transmission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-05-01

    Malaria kills nearly a million people each year, mostly in rural Africa. The disease is spread by mosquitoes, which thrive in wet areas, so malaria transmission is closely linked to rainfall. Rainfall estimates could therefore be used to help predict potential malaria transmission. However, rain gauge networks are sparse in many of the rural areas that are hit hardest by malaria.

  2. Malaria transmission rates estimated from serological data.

    PubMed Central

    Burattini, M. N.; Massad, E.; Coutinho, F. A.

    1993-01-01

    A mathematical model was used to estimate malaria transmission rates based on serological data. The model is minimally stochastic and assumes an age-dependent force of infection for malaria. The transmission rates estimated were applied to a simple compartmental model in order to mimic the malaria transmission. The model has shown a good retrieving capacity for serological and parasite prevalence data. PMID:8270011

  3. Malaria.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupasquier, Isabelle

    1989-01-01

    Malaria, the greatest pandemia in the world, claims an estimated one million lives each year in Africa alone. While it may still be said that for the most part malaria is found in what is known as the world's poverty belt, cases are now frequently diagnosed in western countries. Due to resistant strains of malaria which have developed because of…

  4. Estimating malaria burden in Nigeria: a geostatistical modelling approach.

    PubMed

    Onyiri, Nnadozie

    2015-01-01

    This study has produced a map of malaria prevalence in Nigeria based on available data from the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa (MARA) database, including all malaria prevalence surveys in Nigeria that could be geolocated, as well as data collected during fieldwork in Nigeria between March and June 2007. Logistic regression was fitted to malaria prevalence to identify significant demographic (age) and environmental covariates in STATA. The following environmental covariates were included in the spatial model: the normalized difference vegetation index, the enhanced vegetation index, the leaf area index, the land surface temperature for day and night, land use/landcover (LULC), distance to water bodies, and rainfall. The spatial model created suggests that the two main environmental covariates correlating with malaria presence were land surface temperature for day and rainfall. It was also found that malaria prevalence increased with distance to water bodies up to 4 km. The malaria risk map estimated from the spatial model shows that malaria prevalence in Nigeria varies from 20% in certain areas to 70% in others. The highest prevalence rates were found in the Niger Delta states of Rivers and Bayelsa, the areas surrounding the confluence of the rivers Niger and Benue, and also isolated parts of the north-eastern and north-western parts of the country. Isolated patches of low malaria prevalence were found to be scattered around the country with northern Nigeria having more such areas than the rest of the country. Nigeria's belt of middle regions generally has malaria prevalence of 40% and above. PMID:26618305

  5. Determinants of malaria program expenditures during elimination: case study evidence from select provinces in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jenny X; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J; Escubil, Luz R; Vestergaard, Lasse S; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination. PMID:24086279

  6. Determinants of malaria program expenditures during elimination: case study evidence from select provinces in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jenny X; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J; Escubil, Luz R; Vestergaard, Lasse S; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination.

  7. Determinants of Malaria Program Expenditures during Elimination: Case Study Evidence from Select Provinces in the Philippines

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Jenny X.; Newby, Gretchen; Brackery, Aprielle; Smith Gueye, Cara; Candari, Christine J.; Escubil, Luz R.; Vestergaard, Lasse S.; Baquilod, Mario

    2013-01-01

    ...Even though eliminating malaria from the endemic margins is a part of the Global Malaria Action Plan, little guidance exists on what resources are needed to transition from controlling malaria to eliminating it. Using Philippines as an example, this study aimed to (1) estimate the financial resources used by sub-national malaria programs in different phases during elimination and (2) understand how different environmental and organizational factors may influence expenditure levels and spending proportions. The Philippines provides an opportunity to study variations in sub-national programs because its epidemiological and ecological diversity, devolved health system, and progressive elimination strategy all allow greater flexibility for lower-level governments to direct activities, but also create challenges for coordination and resource mobilization. Through key informant interviews and archival record retrieval in four selected provinces chosen based on eco-epidemiological variation, expenditures associated with provincial malaria programs were collected for selected years (mid-1990s to 2010). Results show that expenditures per person at risk per year decrease as programs progress from a state of controlled low-endemic malaria to elimination to prevention of reintroduction regardless of whether elimination was deliberately planned. However, wide variation across provinces were found: expenditures were generally higher if mainly financed with donor grants, but were moderated by the level of economic development, the level of malaria transmission and receptivity, and the capacity of program staff. Across all provinces, strong leadership appears to be a necessary condition for maintaining progress and is vital in controlling outbreaks. While sampled provinces and years may not be representative of other sub-national malaria programs, these findings suggest that the marginal yearly cost declines with each phase during elimination. PMID:24086279

  8. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    MENU Return to Web version Malaria Overview What is malaria? Malaria is an infection of a part of the blood called the red blood cells. It is ... by mosquitoes that carry a parasite that causes malaria. If a mosquito carrying this parasite bites you, ...

  9. Effective program management: a cornerstone of malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Gosling, Jonathan; Case, Peter; Tulloch, Jim; Chandramohan, Daniel; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Newby, Gretchen; Gueye, Cara Smith; Koita, Kadiatou; Gosling, Roly

    2015-07-01

    Effective program management is essential for successful elimination of malaria. In this perspective article, evidence surrounding malaria program management is reviewed by management science and malaria experts through a literature search of published and unpublished gray documents and key informant interviews. Program management in a malaria elimination setting differs from that in a malaria control setting in a number of ways, although knowledge and understanding of these distinctions are lacking. Several core features of successful health program management are critical to achieve elimination, including effective leadership and supervision at all levels, sustained political and financial commitment, reliable supply and control of physical resources, effective management of data and information, appropriate incentives, and consistent accountability. Adding to the complexity, the requirements of an elimination program may conflict with those of a control regimen. Thus, an additional challenge is successfully managing program transitions along the continuum from control to elimination to prevention of reintroduction. This article identifies potential solutions to these challenges by exploring managerial approaches that are flexible, relevant, and sustainable in various cultural and health system contexts.

  10. Comparison of Routine Health Management Information System Versus Enhanced Inpatient Malaria Surveillance for Estimating the Burden of Malaria Among Children Admitted to Four Hospitals in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mpimbaza, Arthur; Miles, Melody; Sserwanga, Asadu; Kigozi, Ruth; Wanzira, Humphrey; Rubahika, Denis; Nasr, Sussann; Kapella, Bryan K.; Yoon, Steven S.; Chang, Michelle; Yeka, Adoke; Staedke, Sarah G.; Kamya, Moses R.; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    The primary source of malaria surveillance data in Uganda is the Health Management Information System (HMIS), which does not require laboratory confirmation of reported malaria cases. To improve data quality, an enhanced inpatient malaria surveillance system (EIMSS) was implemented with emphasis on malaria testing of all children admitted in select hospitals. Data were compared between the HMIS and the EIMSS at four hospitals over a period of 12 months. After the implementation of the EIMSS, over 96% of admitted children under 5 years of age underwent laboratory testing for malaria. The HMIS significantly overreported the proportion of children under 5 years of age admitted with malaria (average absolute difference = 19%, range = 8–27% across the four hospitals) compared with the EIMSS. To improve the quality of the HMIS data for malaria surveillance, the National Malaria Control Program should, in addition to increasing malaria testing rates, focus on linking laboratory test results to reported malaria cases. PMID:25422396

  11. Malaria.

    PubMed

    Garcia, Lynne S

    2010-03-01

    Malaria has had a greater impact on world history than any other infectious disease. More than 300 to 500 million individuals worldwide are infected with Plasmodium spp, and 1.5 to 2.7 million people a year, most of whom are children, die from the infection. Malaria is endemic in over 90 countries in which 2400 million people live; this represents 40% of the world's population. Approximately 90% of malaria deaths occur in Africa. Despite continuing efforts in vaccine development, malaria prevention is difficult, and no drug is universally effective. This article examines malaria caused by the 4 most common Plasmodium spp that infect humans, P vivax, P ovale, P malariae, and P falciparum, as well as mixed infections and the simian parasite P knowlesi. A comprehensive review of the microbiology, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of these forms of malaria is given.

  12. [Malaria].

    PubMed

    Burchard, G D

    2014-02-01

    Malaria is the most important infectious disease imported by travelers and migrants from tropical and subtropical areas. It is imported quite frequently. It is a life-threatening disease. Symptoms are nonspecific and cannot easily be distinguished from a wide range of other febrile conditions. Therefore, travel history must be taken in all patients with fever of unknown origin and malaria diagnostics must be performed immediately on suspicion of malaria. Uncomplicated falciparum malaria should be treated in the hospital with either atovaquone-proguanil or with an artemisinin-based combination preparation. If there is evidence of severe malaria, the patient must be moved to an intensive care unit. The antiparasitic agent of choice is then artesunate.

  13. Estimates of child deaths prevented from malaria prevention scale-up in Africa 2001-2010

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Funding from external agencies for malaria control in Africa has increased dramatically over the past decade resulting in substantial increases in population coverage by effective malaria prevention interventions. This unprecedented effort to scale-up malaria interventions is likely improving child survival and will likely contribute to meeting Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to reduce the < 5 mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015. Methods The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to quantify the likely impact that malaria prevention intervention scale-up has had on malaria mortality over the past decade (2001-2010) across 43 malaria endemic countries in sub-Saharan African. The likely impact of ITNs and malaria prevention interventions in pregnancy (intermittent preventive treatment [IPTp] and ITNs used during pregnancy) over this period was assessed. Results The LiST model conservatively estimates that malaria prevention intervention scale-up over the past decade has prevented 842,800 (uncertainty: 562,800-1,364,645) child deaths due to malaria across 43 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, compared to a baseline of the year 2000. Over the entire decade, this represents an 8.2% decrease in the number of malaria-caused child deaths that would have occurred over this period had malaria prevention coverage remained unchanged since 2000. The biggest impact occurred in 2010 with a 24.4% decrease in malaria-caused child deaths compared to what would have happened had malaria prevention interventions not been scaled-up beyond 2000 coverage levels. ITNs accounted for 99% of the lives saved. Conclusions The results suggest that funding for malaria prevention in Africa over the past decade has had a substantial impact on decreasing child deaths due to malaria. Rapidly achieving and then maintaining universal coverage of these interventions should be an urgent priority for malaria control programmes in the future. Successful scale-up in many

  14. Estimating the Global Clinical Burden of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in 2007

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I.; Okiro, Emelda A.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Tatem, Andrew J.; Guerra, Carlos A.; Snow, Robert W.

    2010-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of malaria makes surveillance-based methods of estimating its disease burden problematic. Cartographic approaches have provided alternative malaria burden estimates, but there remains widespread misunderstanding about their derivation and fidelity. The aims of this study are to present a new cartographic technique and its application for deriving global clinical burden estimates of Plasmodium falciparum malaria for 2007, and to compare these estimates and their likely precision with those derived under existing surveillance-based approaches. Methods and Findings In seven of the 87 countries endemic for P. falciparum malaria, the health reporting infrastructure was deemed sufficiently rigorous for case reports to be used verbatim. In the remaining countries, the mapped extent of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria transmission was first determined. Estimates of the plausible incidence range of clinical cases were then calculated within the spatial limits of unstable transmission. A modelled relationship between clinical incidence and prevalence was used, together with new maps of P. falciparum malaria endemicity, to estimate incidence in areas of stable transmission, and geostatistical joint simulation was used to quantify uncertainty in these estimates at national, regional, and global scales. Combining these estimates for all areas of transmission risk resulted in 451 million (95% credible interval 349–552 million) clinical cases of P. falciparum malaria in 2007. Almost all of this burden of morbidity occurred in areas of stable transmission. More than half of all estimated P. falciparum clinical cases and associated uncertainty occurred in India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Myanmar (Burma), where 1.405 billion people are at risk. Recent surveillance-based methods of burden estimation were then reviewed and discrepancies in national estimates explored. When these cartographically derived national

  15. Cost-Estimation Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Brian

    1995-01-01

    COSTIT computer program estimates cost of electronic design by reading item-list file and file containing cost for each item. Accuracy of cost estimate based on accuracy of cost-list file. Written by use of AWK utility for Sun4-series computers running SunOS 4.x and IBM PC-series and compatible computers running MS-DOS. The Sun version (NPO-19587). PC version (NPO-19157).

  16. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... Malaria can be carried by mosquitoes in temperate climates, but the parasite disappears over the winter. The ... a major disease hazard for travelers to warm climates. In some areas of the world, mosquitoes that ...

  17. Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... a parasite. You get it when an infected mosquito bites you. Malaria is a major cause of ... insect repellent with DEET Cover up Sleep under mosquito netting Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

  18. Estimating Geographical Variation in the Risk of Zoonotic Plasmodium knowlesi Infection in Countries Eliminating Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Shearer, Freya M.; Huang, Zhi; Weiss, Daniel J.; Wiebe, Antoinette; Gibson, Harry S.; Battle, Katherine E.; Pigott, David M.; Brady, Oliver J.; Putaporntip, Chaturong; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Lau, Yee Ling; Manske, Magnus; Amato, Roberto; Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Vythilingam, Indra; Bhatt, Samir; Gething, Peter W.; Singh, Balbir; Golding, Nick; Hay, Simon I.

    2016-01-01

    Background Infection by the simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can lead to severe and fatal disease in humans, and is the most common cause of malaria in parts of Malaysia. Despite being a serious public health concern, the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi malaria risk is poorly understood because the parasite is often misidentified as one of the human malarias. Human cases have been confirmed in at least nine Southeast Asian countries, many of which are making progress towards eliminating the human malarias. Understanding the geographical distribution of P. knowlesi is important for identifying areas where malaria transmission will continue after the human malarias have been eliminated. Methodology/Principal Findings A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines). Conclusions/Significance We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified. PMID:27494405

  19. Application of satellite estimates of rainfall distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model developed to assess malaria risk in areas where the disease is water-limited. This model relies on precipitation inputs as its primary forcing. Until now, applications of the model have used ground-based precipitation observations. However, rain gauge networks in the areas most affected by malaria are often sparse. The increasing availability of satellite based rainfall estimates could greatly extend the range of the model. The minimum temporal resolution of precipitation data needed was determined to be one hour. The CPC Morphing technique (CMORPH ) distributed by NOAA fits this criteria, as it provides 30-minute estimates at 8km resolution. CMORPH data were compared to ground observations in four West African villages, and calibrated to reduce overestimation and false alarm biases. The calibrated CMORPH data were used to force HYDREMATS, resulting in outputs for mosquito populations, vectorial capacity and malaria transmission.

  20. National Malaria Prevalence in Cambodia: Microscopy Versus Polymerase Chain Reaction Estimates.

    PubMed

    Lek, Dysoley; Popovici, Jean; Ariey, Frederic; Vinjamuri, Seshu Babu; Meek, Sylvia; Bruce, Jan; Taylor, Walter R J; Socheat, Duong; Menard, Didier; Rogers, William O

    2016-09-01

    Accurate information regarding malaria prevalence at national level is required to design and assess malaria control/elimination efforts. Although many comparisons of microscopy and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have been conducted, there is little published literature covering such comparisons in southeast Asia especially at the national level. Both microscopic examination and PCR detection were performed on blood films and dried blood spots samples collected from 8,067 individuals enrolled in a nationwide, stratified, multistage, cluster sampling malaria prevalence survey conducted in Cambodia in 2007. The overall malaria prevalence and prevalence rates of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax, and Plasmodium malariae infections estimated by microscopy (N = 8,067) were 2.74% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.39-3.12%), 1.81% (95% CI: 1.53-2.13%), 1.14% (95% CI: 0.92-1.40%), and 0.01% (95% CI: 0.003-0.07%), respectively. The overall malaria prevalence based on PCR detection (N = 7,718) was almost 2.5-fold higher (6.31%, 95% CI: 5.76-6.89%, P < 0.00001). This difference was significantly more pronounced for P. falciparum (4.40%, 95% CI: 3.95-4.90%, P < 0.00001) compared with P. vivax (1.89%, 95% CI: 1.60-2.22%, P < 0.001) and P. malariae infections (0.22%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.35%, P < 0.0001). The significant proportion of microscopy-negative but PCR-positive individuals (289/7,491, 3.85%) suggest microscopic examination frequently underestimated malaria infections and that active case detection based on microscopy may miss a significant reservoir of infection, especially in low-transmission settings. PMID:27402511

  1. Estimating mortality, morbidity and disability due to malaria among Africa's non-pregnant population.

    PubMed Central

    Snow, R. W.; Craig, M.; Deichmann, U.; Marsh, K.

    1999-01-01

    The contribution of malaria to morbidity and mortality among people in Africa has been a subject of academic interest, political advocacy, and speculation. National statistics for much of sub-Saharan Africa have proved to be an unreliable source of disease-specific morbidity and mortality data. Credible estimates of disease-specific burdens are required for setting global and national priorities for health in order to rationalize the use of limited resources and lobby for financial support. We have taken an empirical approach to defining the limits of Plasmodium falciparum transmission across the continent and interpolated the distributions of projected populations in 1995. By combining a review of the literature on malaria in Africa and models of acquired functional immunity, we have estimated the age-structured rates of the fatal, morbid and disabling sequelae following exposure to malaria infection under different epidemiological conditions. PMID:10516785

  2. Surveillance and response to drive the national malaria elimination program.

    PubMed

    Feng, Xin-Yu; Xia, Zhi-Gui; Vong, Sirenda; Yang, Wei-Zhong; Zhou, Shui-Sen

    2014-01-01

    The national action plan for malaria elimination in China (2010-2020) was issued by the Chinese Ministry of Health along with other 13 ministries and commissions in 2010. The ultimate goal of the national action plan was to eliminate local transmission of malaria by the end of 2020. Surveillance and response are the most important components driving the whole process of the national malaria elimination programme (NMEP), under the technical guidance used in NMEP. This chapter introduces the evolution of the surveillance from the control to the elimination stages and the current structure of national surveillance system in China. When the NMEP launched, both routine surveillance and sentinel surveillance played critical role in monitoring the process of NMEP. In addition, the current response strategy of NMEP was also reviewed, including the generally developed "1-3-7 Strategy". More effective and sensitive risk assessment tools were introduced, which cannot only predict the trends of malaria, but also are important for the design and adjustment of the surveillance and response systems in the malaria elimination stage. Therefore, this review presents the landscape of malaria surveillance and response in China as well as their contribution to the NMEP, with a focus on activities for early detection of malaria cases, timely control of malaria foci and epidemics, and risk prediction. Furthermore, challenges and recommendations for accelerating NMEP through surveillance are put forward. PMID:25476882

  3. Trends in Malaria in Odisha, India—An Analysis of the 2003–2013 Time-Series Data from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program

    PubMed Central

    Pradhan, Madan Mohan; AK, Kavitha; Kar, Priyanka; Sahoo, Krushna Chandra; Panigrahi, Pinaki; Dutta, Ambarish

    2016-01-01

    Background Although Odisha is the largest contributor to the malaria burden in India, no systematic study has examined its malaria trends. Hence, the spatio-temporal trends in malaria in Odisha were assessed against the backdrop of the various anti-malaria strategies implemented in the state. Methods Using the district-wise malaria incidence and blood examination data (2003–2013) from the National Vector Borne Disease Control Program, blood examination-adjusted time-trends in malaria incidence were estimated and predicted for 2003–2013 and 2014–2016, respectively. An interrupted time series analysis using segmented regression was conducted to compare the disease trends between the pre (2003–2007) and post-intensification (2009–2013) periods. Key-informant interviews of state stakeholders were used to collect the information on the various anti-malaria strategies adopted in the state. Results The state annual malaria incidence declined from 10.82/1000 to 5.28/1000 during 2003–2013 (adjusted annual decline: -0.54/1000, 95% CI: -0.78 to -0.30). However, the annual blood examination rate remained almost unchanged from 11.25% to 11.77%. The keyinformants revealed that intensification of anti-malaria activities in 2008 led to a more rapid decline in malaria incidence during 2009–2013 as compared to that in 2003–2007 [adjusted decline: -0.83 (-1.30 to -0.37) and -0.27 (-0.41 to -0.13), respectively]. There was a significant difference in the two temporal slopes, i.e., -0.054 (-0.10 to -0.002, p = 0.04) per 1000 population per month, between these two periods, indicating almost a 200% greater decline in the post-intensification period. Although, the seven southern high-burden districts registered the highest decline, they continued to remain in that zone, thereby, making the achievement of malaria elimination (incidence <1/1000) unlikely by 2017. Conclusion The anti-malaria strategies in Odisha, especially their intensification since 2008, have helped

  4. Annuity-estimating program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jillie, D. W.

    1979-01-01

    Program computes benefits and other relevant factors for Federal Civil Service employees. Computed information includes retirement annuity, survivor annuity for each retirement annuity, highest average annual consecutive 3-year salary, length of service including credit for unused sick leave, amount of deposit and redeposit plus interest.

  5. [Armenia: implementation of national program of malaria control].

    PubMed

    Grigorian, G; Solkhomonian, L

    2001-01-01

    Malaria has been existing in Armenia since antiquity. In the 1920"s to 1930s, thousands of people suffered from this disease in the country. Enormous efforts were required to prevent further spread of the disease. A network was set up, which consisted of a research institute and stations. A total of 200,000 cases of malaria were still notified in 1934. Rapid development of the health infrastructure and better socioeconomic conditions improved the malaria situation and reduced the number of cases in 1946. Malaria was completely eradicated in Armenia in 1963, and the malaria-free situation retained till 1994. During that period, comprehensive activities were undertaken in the country to prevent and control malaria. Since 1990, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the situation became critical in many newly independent states. Economic crisis, human migration, worsening levels of health services, and the lack of necessary medicines, equipment, and insecticides significantly affected the malaria epidemiological situation in the country. Malaria cases started to penetrate into Armenia from neighboring countries. In 1994, a hundred ninety six military men contacted malaria in Karabakh, which was unfavorable in terms of malaria, as well on as the border with Iran and along the Araks river. The first cases recorded in Armenia were imported, afterwards they led to the incidence of indigenous cases, given the fact that all the prerequisites for malaria mosquito breeding and development were encountered in 17 regions and 3 towns of the country. In 1995, there were 502 imported cases and in 1996 the situation changed: out of 347 registered cases, 149 were indigenous. The Ministry of Health undertook a range of preventive measures. In 1997 versus 1996, the total number of malaria cases increased 2.3-fold: 841 registered cases of which 567 were indigenous (a 3.8-fold increase). The overwhelming majority of cases were recorded in the Ararat and Armavir marzes. In 1998

  6. Can a single "powerless" mitochondrion in the malaria parasite contribute to parasite programmed cell death in the asexual stages?

    PubMed

    Ch'ng, Jun-Hong; Yeo, Su-Ping; Shyong-Wei Tan, Kevin

    2013-05-01

    The protozoan pathogens responsible for malaria are from the Plasmodium genus, with Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax accounting for almost all clinical infections. With recent estimates of mortality exceeding 800,000 annually, malaria continues to take a terrible toll on lives and the early promises of medicine to eradicate the disease have yet to approach realization, in part due to the spread of drug resistant parasites. Recent reports of artemisinin-resistance have prompted renewed efforts to identify novel therapeutic options, and one such pathway being considered for antimalarial exploit is the parasite's programmed cell death (PCD) pathway. In this mini-review, we will discuss the roles of the plasmodium mitochondria in cell death and as a target of antimalarial compounds, taking into account recent data suggesting that PCD pathways involving the mitochondria may be attractive antimalarial targets.

  7. Are multilateral malaria research and control programs the most successful? Lessons from the past 100 years in Africa.

    PubMed

    Alilio, Martin S; Bygbjerg, Ib C; Breman, Joel G

    2004-08-01

    Multilateral malaria research and control programs in Africa have regained prominence recently as bilateral assistance has diminished. The transnational nature of the threat and the need for inspired leadership, good coordination, and new discoveries to decrease the impact of the disease has led to the founding of the Multilateral Initiative on Malaria, the Roll Back Malaria Project, Global Fund for HIV, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund), the Medicines for Malaria Venture, and the Malaria Vaccine Initiative, among other groups. Historically, the most striking feature of malaria control and elimination activities was the connectedness and balance between malaria research and control especially, from 1892 to 1949. A combination of scientific originality, perseverance in research, integrated approaches, and social concern were the keys for success. The elimination of Anopheles gambiae from Upper Egypt in 1942 using integrated vector control methods is a prime example of malaria control during the first half of the 20th century where those factors were brought together. After 1949, there were three decades of great optimism. Four notable landmarks characterized this period: the Kampala Conference in 1950; the Global Malaria Eradication Program beginning in 1955; the primary health care strategies adopted by most African States after attaining their political independence in the 1960s, and accelerating in the 1980s; and creation of the Special Program in Training and Research in Tropical Diseases at the World Health Organization in 1975. The initial highly encouraging operational results, largely obtained in temperate or subtropical areas where transmission was unstable, engendered undue expectations for the success of identical antimalarial measures elsewhere. Many were convinced that the eradication was in sight, such that support for malaria research virtually ceased. Young, bright scientists were discouraged from seeking a career in a discipline that appeared

  8. Imported Malaria in Portugal 2000–2009: A Role for Hospital Statistics for Better Estimates and Surveillance

    PubMed Central

    Dias, Sara S.; Baptista, João Luis; Torgal, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    Background. Although eradicated in Portugal, malaria keeps taking its toll on travelers and migrants from endemic countries. Disease notification is mandatory but is compromised by underreporting. Methods. A retrospective study on malaria hospitalizations for 10 consecutive years (2000–2009) was conducted. Data on hospitalizations and notifications were obtained from Central Administration of Health System and Health Protection Agency, respectively. For data selection ICD-9 CM and ICD-10 were used: codes 084*, 647.4, and B50–B54. Variables were gender, age, agent and origin of infection, length of stay (LOS), lethality, and comorbidities. Analysis included description, hypothesis testing, and regression. Results. There were 2003 malaria hospitalizations and 480 notified hospitalized cases, mainly in young male adults. P. falciparum was the main agent of infection acquired mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Lethality was 1.95% and mean LOS was 8.09 days. Older age entailed longer LOS and increased lethality. Discussion. From 2000 to 2009, there were 2003 malaria hospitalizations with decreasing annual incidence, these numbers being remarkably higher than those notified. The national database of diagnosis related groups, reflecting hospitalizations on NHS hospitals, may be an unexplored complementary source for better estimates on imported malaria. PMID:25548715

  9. A more appropriate white blood cell count for estimating malaria parasite density in Plasmodium vivax patients in northeastern Myanmar.

    PubMed

    Liu, Huaie; Feng, Guohua; Zeng, Weilin; Li, Xiaomei; Bai, Yao; Deng, Shuang; Ruan, Yonghua; Morris, James; Li, Siman; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang

    2016-04-01

    The conventional method of estimating parasite densities employ an assumption of 8000 white blood cells (WBCs)/μl. However, due to leucopenia in malaria patients, this number appears to overestimate parasite densities. In this study, we assessed the accuracy of parasite density estimated using this assumed WBC count in eastern Myanmar, where Plasmodium vivax has become increasingly prevalent. From 256 patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, we estimated parasite density and counted WBCs by using an automated blood cell counter. It was found that WBC counts were not significantly different between patients of different gender, axillary temperature, and body mass index levels, whereas they were significantly different between age groups of patients and the time points of measurement. The median parasite densities calculated with the actual WBC counts (1903/μl) and the assumed WBC count of 8000/μl (2570/μl) were significantly different. We demonstrated that using the assumed WBC count of 8000 cells/μl to estimate parasite densities of P. vivax malaria patients in this area would lead to an overestimation. For P. vivax patients aged five years and older, an assumed WBC count of 5500/μl best estimated parasite densities. This study provides more realistic assumed WBC counts for estimating parasite densities in P. vivax patients from low-endemicity areas of Southeast Asia.

  10. Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

    2016-01-01

    The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach. PMID:27063736

  11. Soft targets or partners in health? Retail pharmacies and their role in Tanzania's malaria control program.

    PubMed

    Kamat, Vinay R; Nyato, Daniel J

    2010-08-01

    The retail sector has been at the center of recent policy debates concerning its role in malaria control programs in Africa. This article closely examines the perspectives of owners and managers of retail pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, toward the dominant public health discourse and practices surrounding the deployment of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) as a way forward in malaria control. Drawing on fieldwork conducted between May-August 2007, and July-August 2009, involving in-depth interviews and participant observation in pharmacies and drug shops in Dar es Salaam, the article describes the social realities facing people who manage retail pharmacies, the nature of their interactions with customers, the kinds of antimalarials they sell, and their perspective on how the new malaria treatment guidelines have affected their business. Findings suggest that for most pharmacy owners and managers, it is 'business as usual' concerning the sale of conventional antimalarials, with a majority reporting that the introduction of ACT in public health facilities had not negatively affected their business. Implications of the research findings are examined in the context of proposed interventions to make pharmacy owners and managers more socially responsible and adhere to government health regulations. The article makes a case for actively involving pharmacy owners and managers in decision making processes surrounding the implementation of new treatment guidelines, and training programs that have an impact on their business, social responsibility, and community health. In considering regulatory interventions, health planners must explicitly address the concern that retail pharmacies fill an important role in the country's health care system, and that the complex nexus that drives the global pharmaceutical market often governs their operations at the local level.

  12. Malaria vaccine.

    PubMed

    1994-05-01

    Some have argued that the vaccine against malaria developed by Manuel Pattaroyo, a Colombian scientist, is being tested prematurely in humans and that it is unlikely to be successful. While the Pattaroyo vaccine has been shown to confer protection against the relatively mild malaria found in Colombia, doubts exist over whether it will be effective in Africa. Encouraging first results, however, are emerging from field tests in Tanzania. The vaccine triggered a strong new immune response, even in individuals previously exposed to malaria. Additional steps must be taken to establish its impact upon mortality and morbidity. Five major trials are underway around the world. The creator estimates that the first ever effective malaria vaccine could be available for widespread use within five years and he has no intention of securing a patent for the discovery. In another development, malaria specialists from 35 African countries convened at an international workshop in Zimbabwe to compare notes. Participants disparaged financial outlays for the fight against malaria equivalent to 2% of total AIDS funding as insufficient; noted intercountry differences in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment; and found information exchange between anglophone and francophone doctors to be generally poor. PMID:12287671

  13. Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

  14. Evaluation of the Global Fund-supported National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea, 2009-2014.

    PubMed

    Hetzel, Manuel W; Pulford, Justin; Maraga, Seri; Barnadas, Celine; Reimer, Lisa J; Tavul, Livingstone; Jamea-Maiasa, Sharon; Tandrapah, Tony; Maalsen, Anna; Makita, Leo; Siba, Peter M; Mueller, Ivo

    2014-01-01

    The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria is the major funaer Of the National Malaria Control Program in Papua New Guinea (PNG). One of the requirements of a Global Fund grant is the regular and accurate reporting of program outcomes and impact. Under-performance as well as failure to report can result in reduction or discontinuation of program funding. While national information systems should be in a position to provide accurate and comprehensive information for program evaluation, systems in developing countries are often insufficient. This paper describes the five-year plan for the evaluation of the Global Fund Round 8 malaria grant to PNG (2009-2014) developed by the Papua New Guinea Institute of Medical Research (PNGIMR). It builds on a complementary set of studies including national surveys and sentinel site surveillance for the assessment of program outcomes and impact. The PNGIMR evaluation plan is an integral part of the Global Fund grant. The evaluation program assesses intervention coverage (at individual, household and health facility levels), antimalarial drug efficacy, indicators of malaria transmission and morbidity (prevalence, incidence), and all-cause mortality. Operational research studies generate complementary information for improving the control program. Through the evaluation, PNGIMR provides scientific expertise to the PNG National Malaria Control Program and contributes to building local capacity in monitoring and evaluation. While a better integration of evaluation activities into routine systems would be desirable, it is unlikely that sufficient capacity for data analysis and reporting could be established at the National Department of Health (NDoH) within a short period of time. Long-term approaches should aim at strengthening the national health information system and building sufficient capacity at NDoH for routine analysis and reporting, while more complex scientific tasks can be supported by the PNGIMR as the de facto

  15. Costs of Eliminating Malaria and the Impact of the Global Fund in 34 Countries

    PubMed Central

    Zelman, Brittany; Kiszewski, Anthony; Cotter, Chris; Liu, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    Background International financing for malaria increased more than 18-fold between 2000 and 2011; the largest source came from The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (Global Fund). Countries have made substantial progress, but achieving elimination requires sustained finances to interrupt transmission and prevent reintroduction. Since 2011, global financing for malaria has declined, fueling concerns that further progress will be impeded, especially for current malaria-eliminating countries that may face resurgent malaria if programs are disrupted. Objectives This study aims to 1) assess past total and Global Fund funding to the 34 current malaria-eliminating countries, and 2) estimate their future funding needs to achieve malaria elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030. Methods Historical funding is assessed against trends in country-level malaria annual parasite incidences (APIs) and income per capita. Following Kizewski et al. (2007), program costs to eliminate malaria and prevent reintroduction through 2030 are estimated using a deterministic model. The cost parameters are tailored to a package of interventions aimed at malaria elimination and prevention of reintroduction. Results The majority of Global Fund-supported countries experiencing increases in total funding from 2005 to 2010 coincided with reductions in malaria APIs and also overall GNI per capita average annual growth. The total amount of projected funding needed for the current malaria-eliminating countries to achieve elimination and prevent reintroduction through 2030 is approximately US$8.5 billion, or about $1.84 per person at risk per year (PPY) (ranging from $2.51 PPY in 2014 to $1.43 PPY in 2030). Conclusions Although external donor funding, particularly from the Global Fund, has been key for many malaria-eliminating countries, sustained and sufficient financing is critical for furthering global malaria elimination. Projected cost estimates for elimination provide

  16. Satellite imagery in the fight against Malaria, the case for Genetic Programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ssentongo, J. S.; Hines, E. L.

    The analysis of multi-temporal data is a critical issue in the field of remote sensing and presents a constant challenge The approach used here relies primarily on utilising a method commonly used in statistics and signal processing Empirical Orthogonal Function EOF analysis Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NDVI and Rainfall Estimate RFE satellite images pertaining to the Sub-Saharan Africa region were obtained The images are derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer AVHRR on the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA polar orbiting satellites spanning from January 2000 to December 2002 The region of interest was narrowed down to the Limpopo Province Northern Province of South Africa EOF analyses of the space-time-intensity series of dekadal mean NDVI values was been performed They reveal that NDVI can be accurately approximated by its principal component time series and contains a near sinusoidal oscillation pattern Peak greenness essentially what NDVI measures seasons last approximately 8 weeks This oscillation period is very similar to that of Malaria cases reported in the same period but lags behind by 4 dekads about 40 days Singular Value Decomposition SVD of Coupled Fields is performed on the spacetime-intensity series of dekadal mean NDVI and RFE values Correlation analyses indicate that both Malaria and greenness appear to be dependant on rainfall the onset of their seasonal highs always following an arrival of rain There is a greater

  17. The ears of the hippopotamus: manifestations, determinants, and estimates of the malaria burden.

    PubMed

    Breman, J G

    2001-01-01

    Malarious patients experience asymptomatic parasitemia; acute febrile illness (with cerebral damage, anemia, respiratory distress, hypoglycemia); chronic debilitation (anemia, malnutrition, nervous system-related sequelae); and complications of pregnancy (anemia, low birth weight, increased infant mortality). These manifestations in patients, communities, and countries reflect intrinsic (human, parasite, mosquito) and extrinsic (environmental, social, behavioral, political, and economic conditions as well as disease-control efforts) determinants. At a minimum, between 700,000 and 2.7 million persons die yearly from malaria, over 75% of them African children. Between 400 and 900 million acute febrile episodes occur yearly in African children under 5 yr of age living in endemic areas. Although about half of these children are parasitemic, all merit consideration of malaria-specific therapy, which is becoming more problematic because of parasite resistance to drugs. These numbers will more than double over the next 20 yr without effective control. Fewer than 20% of these febrile episodes and deaths come to the attention of any formal health system. The relatively few ill patients who have any contact with the health services represent the "ears of the hippopotamus." Greatly intensified research activities and control of the intolerable burden of malaria are mandatory if economic development is to accelerate in Africa. In particular, support should be targeted to understanding and preventing malaria-induced anemia, hypoglycemia, effects on pregnancy, and neurologic and developmental impairment. To decrease and stop transmission of this intolerable scourge, there is an urgent need for malaria vaccines, newer drugs, and better vector control methods as well as the ability to improve current technologies and use them more efficiently.

  18. Travel risk, malaria importation and malaria transmission in Zanzibar

    PubMed Central

    Le Menach, Arnaud; Tatem, Andrew J.; Cohen, Justin M.; Hay, Simon I.; Randell, Heather; Patil, Anand P.; Smith, David L.

    2011-01-01

    The prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Zanzibar has reached historic lows. Improving control requires quantifying malaria importation rates, identifying high-risk travelers, and assessing onwards transmission. Estimates of Zanzibar's importation rate were calculated through two independent methodologies. First, mobile phone usage data and ferry traffic between Zanzibar and mainland Tanzania were re-analyzed using a model of heterogeneous travel risk. Second, a dynamic mathematical model of importation and transmission rates was used. Zanzibar residents traveling to malaria endemic regions were estimated to contribute 1–15 times more imported cases than infected visitors. The malaria importation rate was estimated to be 1.6 incoming infections per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Local transmission was estimated too low to sustain transmission in most places. Malaria infections in Zanzibar largely result from imported malaria and subsequent transmission. Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination appears feasible by implementing control measures based on detecting imported malaria cases and controlling onward transmission. PMID:22355611

  19. Malaria Research

    MedlinePlus

    ... Malaria > Research Malaria Understanding Research NIAID Role Basic Biology Prevention and Control Strategies Strategic Partnerships and Research ... the malaria parasite. Related Links Global Research​ Vector Biology International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) ...

  20. Malaria in India: The Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India

    PubMed Central

    Das, Aparup; Anvikar, Anupkumar R.; Cator, Lauren J.; Dhiman, Ramesh C.; Eapen, Alex; Mishra, Neelima; Nagpal, Bhupinder N.; Nanda, Nutan; Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Read, Andrew F.; Sharma, Surya K.; Singh, Om P.; Singh, Vineeta; Sinnis, Photini; Srivastava, Harish C.; Sullivan, Steven A.; Sutton, Patrick L.; Thomas, Matthew B.; Carlton, Jane M.; Valecha, Neena

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in India and one which contributes significantly to the overall malaria burden in Southeast Asia. The National Vector Borne Disease Control Program of India reported ~1.6 million cases and ~1100 malaria deaths in 2009. Some experts argue that this is a serious underestimation and that the actual number of malaria cases per year is likely between 9 and 50 times greater, with an approximate 13-fold underestimation of malaria-related mortality. The difficulty in making these estimations is further exacerbated by (i) highly variable malaria eco-epidemiological profiles, (ii) the transmission and overlap of multiple Plasmodium species and Anopheles vectors, (iii) increasing antimalarial drug resistance and insecticide resistance, and (iv) the impact of climate change on each of these variables. Simply stated, the burden of malaria in India is complex. Here we describe plans for a Center for the Study of Complex Malaria in India (CSCMi), one of ten International Centers of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMRs) located in malarious regions of the world recently funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. The CSCMi is a close partnership between Indian and United States scientists, and aims to address major gaps in our understanding of the complexity of malaria in India, including changing patterns of epidemiology, vector biology and control, drug resistance, and parasite genomics. We hope that such a multidisciplinary approach that integrates clinical and field studies with laboratory, molecular, and genomic methods will provide a powerful combination for malaria control and prevention in India. PMID:22142788

  1. BASIC program for power spectrum estimation. Revision

    SciTech Connect

    Church, E.L.; Takacs, P.Z.

    1994-05-01

    A standard data set is presented to be used in testing routines that are developed for evaluating the one-dimensional periodogram spectral estimate of a series of uniformly spaced data points representing measurements of a surface profile. These data were generated using the GWBASIC program ``FFTPSD`` which is included in the Appendix of this report. The original purpose of this data set was to allow us to test and debug our own periodogram estimation routines, written in various programming, languages, against a standard data set. At the request of numerous individuals, we are making it available to others who may wish to do the same. We have also included a summary explanation of periodogram estimators and the various considerations that go into generating computer algorithms for power spectrum estimation.

  2. Estimating environmental benefits of energy programs

    SciTech Connect

    Baechler, M.C.; Schrock, D.W.

    1995-07-01

    Three national reporting programs that either collect or report information on energy savings and the associated emissions reductions from DSM programs are the Conservation Verification Protocols (CVP), the Greenhouse Gas Voluntary Reporting Program (VRP), and the Green Lights Program. The CVP were enacted to report the atmospheric emissions reductions of S0{sub 2} and N0{sub 2}. The VRP was mandated in the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct) Section 1605(b) to report CO{sub 2}, emissions reductions. Green Lights is a program designed to reduce emissions by encouraging energy-efficient lighting. In this paper we concentrate on how the verification methods, default emission factors and reporting mechanisms affect the accuracy of the reported energy and emissions savings. Additionally, we focus on the dynamic nature of predicted emissions reductions to gauge the accuracy of predictions over time. If conservation programs are designed to affect existing powerplants, if no load growth is anticipated, and if existing plants will not require replacement, a simple static analysis based on an existing resource mix may be acceptable. This approach is enhanced by defining base case, intermediate, and peak resources. However, if today`s decisions will affect tomorrow`s resource decisions, or if the estimates will be used to establish important milestones (such as emission credits), it is prudent to conduct an analysis that captures most incumbent uncertainties. These uncertainties include future resource decisions and the regional character of energy resources, which may not be captured by national estimates and simple extrapolation techniques. While some estimation methods, such as use of default emission factors, produce reasonable national average numbers, the estimates may not be applicable to specific regions. The environmental and economic value of programs may be misstated.

  3. Sustainability of a successful malaria surveillance and treatment program in a Runggus community in Sabah, east Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Hii, J L; Chee, K C; Vun, Y S; Awang, J; Chin, K H; Kan, S K

    1996-09-01

    The district of Kudat has one of the highest and most persistent malaria transmission levels in Sabah, Malaysia, with annual parasite incidence of 102 per 1,000 inhabitants per year. Due to this situation and the failure of DDT spraying to control malaria, a community participation health program (Sukarelawan Penjagaan Kesihatan Primer or SPKP) was developed as an adjunct to current anti-malarial measures during 1987-1991. SPKP is made up of unpaid community workers known as village health volunteers (VHVs). VHVs are selected by a village development and security committees training and supervision a member of the Vector-Borne Diseases Control Program (VBDCP). The beneficiaries of SPKP consisted primarily of Runggus people and other remote, and mobile populations who visit the home of a VHV for diagnosis and treatment. This group of febrile patients and their children who attend a participating school submit finger prick blood and personal details to the VHV. and receive a presumptive treatment for malaria. Thick and thin blood smears are examined by a VBDCP microscopist who then prepare and forward a radical or curative treatment to the VHV so that it can be administered to the microscopically-positive patient free of charge. Between June 1987 to June 1991, VHVs from 32 kampungs (villages) and 22 schools collected 56,245 slides representing 24.7% of total slide collection compared to 74.9% collected by passive case detection (PCD) posts in health centers and district hospital. The average volunteer treated 11.8 (range 10.4-13.4) and 31.4 (range 26-49) patients per month in kampungs and schools respectively. In contrast, non-SPKP posts in a district hospital, health centers and flying doctor service treated an average of 616.3 patients per month (range 134.8-1032.8). The slide positivity rate of blood smears taken by VHVs was 8.43% compared with 7.37% for non-SPKP posts. Average slide collection and slide positivity rates varied considerably from one community to

  4. Prospects for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Ochoa-Orozco, Sergio Andrés; González, Iveth J.; Peinado, Lucrecia; Quiñones, Martha L.; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains endemic in 21 countries of the American continent with an estimated 427,000 cases per year. Approximately 10% of these occur in the Mesoamerican and Caribbean regions. During the last decade, malaria transmission in Mesoamerica showed a decrease of ~85%; whereas, in the Caribbean region, Hispaniola (comprising the Dominican Republic [DR] and Haiti) presented an overall rise in malaria transmission, primarily due to a steady increase in Haiti, while DR experienced a significant transmission decrease in this period. The significant malaria reduction observed recently in the region prompted the launch of an initiative for Malaria Elimination in Mesoamerica and Hispaniola (EMMIE) with the active involvement of the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) of nine countries, the Regional Coordination Mechanism (RCM) for Mesoamerica, and the Council of Health Ministries of Central America and Dominican Republic (COMISCA). The EMMIE initiative is supported by the Global Fund for Aids, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) with active participation of multiple partners including Ministries of Health, bilateral and multilateral agencies, as well as research centers. EMMIE’s main goal is to achieve elimination of malaria transmission in the region by 2020. Here we discuss the prospects, challenges, and research needs associated with this initiative that, if successful, could represent a paradigm for other malaria-affected regions. PMID:25973753

  5. [The American Malaria Program (1941-1946) and its sequelae for biomedical research after World War II].

    PubMed

    Bickel, M H

    1999-01-01

    After Pearl Harbor 1941 and the Japanese conquest of the Netherlands East Indies the U.S. were confronted with both a war in the malaria-ridden South Pacific and the loss of the sources of quinine. This situation gave birth to a Cooperative Wartime Program with the participation of national scientific and medical organizations, universities, hospitals, industries, and the Armed Forces. It worked as a flexible system of coordinated and cooperative units subsidized by the U.S. Government. In the course of WWII malaria casualties dropped beyond expectation due to an improved usage of quinacrine (Atebrine) which was based on new knowledge in pharmacokinetics. Furthermore, basic knowledge in malariology was improved, and a mass-screening resulted in new antimalarial drugs, such as chloroquine. The experiences of the Malaria Program were used by one of its chief architects, James A. Shannon, to transform the National Institutes of Health (NIH) into the model medical research institution whose budget for extramural programs also allowed for the nationwide post-war boom of medical research.

  6. Mobile phones and malaria: modeling human and parasite travel

    PubMed Central

    Buckee, Caroline O.; Wesolowski, Amy; Eagle, Nathan; Hansen, Elsa; Snow, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    Human mobility plays an important role in the dissemination of malaria parasites between regions of variable transmission intensity. Asymptomatic individuals can unknowingly carry parasites to regions where mosquito vectors are available, for example, undermining control programs and contributing to transmission when they travel. Understanding how parasites are imported between regions in this way is therefore an important goal for elimination planning and the control of transmission, and would enable control programs to target the principal sources of malaria. Measuring human mobility has traditionally been difficult to do on a population scale, but the widespread adoption of mobile phones in low-income settings presents a unique opportunity to directly measure human movements that are relevant to the spread of malaria. Here, we discuss the opportunities for measuring human mobility using data from mobile phones, as well as some of the issues associated with combining mobility estimates with malaria infection risk maps to meaningfully estimate routes of parasite importation. PMID:23478045

  7. Mobile soak pits improve spray team mobility, productivity and safety of PMI malaria control programs.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, David F; Brown, Annie S; Bouare, Sory Ibrahima; Belemvire, Allison; George, Kristen; Fornadel, Christen; Norris, Laura; Longhany, Rebecca; Chandonait, Peter J

    2016-09-15

    In the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI)-funded Africa Indoor Residual Spraying Project (AIRS), end-of-day clean-up operations require the safe disposal of wash water resulting from washing the exterior of spray tanks and spray operators' personal protective equipment. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) programs typically use soak pits - large, in-ground filters - to adsorb, filter and then safely degrade the traces of insecticide found in the wash water. Usually these soak pits are permanent installations serving 30 or more operators, located in a central area that is accessible to multiple spray teams at the end of their workday. However, in remote areas, it is often impractical for teams to return to a central soak pit location for cleanup. To increase operational efficiency and improve environmental compliance, the PMI AIRS Project developed and tested mobile soak pits (MSP) in the laboratory and in field applications in Madagascar, Mali, Senegal, and Ethiopia where the distance between villages can be substantial and the road conditions poor. Laboratory testing confirmed the ability of the easily-assembled MSP to reduce effluent concentrations of two insecticides (Actellic 300-CS and Ficam VC) used by the PMI AIRS Project, and to generate the minimal practicable environmental "footprint" in these remote areas. Field testing in the Mali 2014 IRS campaign demonstrated ease of installation and use, resulted in improved and more consistent standards of clean-up, decreased transportation requirements, improved spray team working conditions, and reduced potential for operator exposure to insecticide. PMID:27341285

  8. Conducting International Diploma Course on Malaria Program Planning and Management (1996–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Mesdaghinia, Ali Reza; Vatandoost, Hassan; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Majdzadeh, Reza; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2013-01-01

    Background: Malaria is still a public health problem in the world. One of the main objectives of World Health organization is capacity building of authorities who are involved with malaria control activities. Methods: The first course was conducted in 1996 in Bandar Abbas Training center. The course was conducted jointly by the Ministry of Health and Medical Education of Iran, WHO-EMRO and School of Public health, Tehran university of Medical Sciences. In year 2002, Iran has been designated as WHO regional Malaria Training Center. Prior to initiate the course, pre-test evaluations including 11 subjects were carried out. The examinations include multiple choice questions. Different methods of teaching including lecture, laboratory, workshop, team work, field exercise and presentation were used. The duration of the course was 9 weeks. A total of 360 contact hours were taught. The main subjects were Basic epidemiology and Simple Statistics, Malaria Parasitology, Malaria disease Management, Malaria Entomology, Vector Control, Epidemiological approach, Filed work and Planning. The requirement for achievement of the course was to have at least 60% of the total mark for awarding the diploma certificate. The 13th course was conducted by the financial support of Islamic Development Bank (IDB). Results: A total of 300 participants from 26 different countries have been graduated from these courses so far. Conclusion: This course is providing the skill for decision making, how to combat against malaria in their country and is parallel to the policy of the malaria control for capacity building in malarious areas of the world. PMID:24409435

  9. Estimation of malaria incidence in northern Namibia in 2009 using Bayesian conditional-autoregressive spatial–temporal models☆

    PubMed Central

    Alegana, Victor A.; Atkinson, Peter M.; Wright, Jim A.; Kamwi, Richard; Uusiku, Petrina; Katokele, Stark; Snow, Robert W.; Noor, Abdisalan M.

    2013-01-01

    As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly important to monitor changes in malaria incidence rather than prevalence. Here, a spatio-temporal model was used to identify constituencies with high malaria incidence to guide malaria control. Malaria cases were assembled across all age groups along with several environmental covariates. A Bayesian conditional-autoregressive model was used to model the spatial and temporal variation of incidence after adjusting for test positivity rates and health facility utilisation. Of the 144,744 malaria cases recorded in Namibia in 2009, 134,851 were suspected and 9893 were parasitologically confirmed. The mean annual incidence based on the Bayesian model predictions was 13 cases per 1000 population with the highest incidence predicted for constituencies bordering Angola and Zambia. The smoothed maps of incidence highlight trends in disease incidence. For Namibia, the 2009 maps provide a baseline for monitoring the targets of pre-elimination. PMID:24238079

  10. ESTIM: A parameter estimation computer program: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hills, R.G.

    1987-08-01

    The computer code, ESTIM, enables subroutine versions of existing simulation codes to be used to estimate model parameters. Nonlinear least squares techniques are used to find the parameter values that result in a best fit between measurements made in the simulation domain and the simulation code's prediction of these measurements. ESTIM utilizes the non-linear least square code DQED (Hanson and Krogh (1982)) to handle the optimization aspects of the estimation problem. In addition to providing weighted least squares estimates, ESTIM provides a propagation of variance analysis. A subroutine version of COYOTE (Gartling (1982)) is provided. The use of ESTIM with COYOTE allows one to estimate the thermal property model parameters that result in the best agreement (in a least squares sense) between internal temperature measurements and COYOTE's predictions of these internal temperature measurements. We demonstrate the use of ESTIM through several example problems which utilize the subroutine version of COYOTE.

  11. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China--Myanmar border.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-20

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China.

  12. Effects of a malaria elimination program: a retrospective study of 623 cases from 2008 to 2013 in a Chinese county hospital near the China – Myanmar border

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xinyu; Yang, Linlin; Jiang, Tao; Zhang, Bingyan; Wang, Shuqing; Wu, Xingfen; Wang, Tianying; Li, Yanlin; Liu, Min; Peng, Quanbang; Zhang, Wenhong

    2016-01-01

    The southwestern region of China, along the Myanmar border, has accounted for the highest number of cases of imported malaria since China shifted from a malaria control program to an elimination strategy in 2010. We conducted a retrospective study, in which 623 medical charts were analyzed to provide an epidemiological characterization of malaria cases that were diagnosed and treated at the People's Hospital of Tengchong County (PHTC), located in southwestern China, from 2008 to 2013. Our aim was to understand the characteristics of malaria in this region, which is a high-endemic region with imported cases. The majority of patients were male (91.7%), and the average age was 32.4 years. Most of the patients (86.4%) had visited Myanmar; labor was the purpose of travel for 63.9% of the patients. Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum were responsible for 53.8% and 34.9% of the infections, respectively. The number of hospitalized patients rose gradually from 2008 to 2010 and reached its peak in 2010 (191). After 2010, the number of hospitalized cases fell rapidly from 191 (2010) to 45 (2013), and the proportion of patients who lived in the forest and the number infected with P. falciparum also fell. In conclusion, the number of hospitalized patients in the southwestern region of China, Tengchong county, decreased after China implemented a malaria elimination strategy in 2010. However, migrant workers returning from Myanmar remained important contributors to cases of imported malaria. The management of imported malaria should be targeted by the malaria elimination program in China. PMID:26785944

  13. Malaria Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov File Formats Help: How do I view different file formats (PDF, DOC, PPT, MPEG) on this site? Adobe PDF file Microsoft PowerPoint file Microsoft Word file Microsoft Excel ...

  14. Changing landscape of malaria in China: progress and feasibility of malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Diouf, Gorgui; Kpanyen, Patrick N; Tokpa, Augustine F; Nie, Shaofa

    2014-01-01

    Large-scale malaria control activities in China have been conducted with significant success, since the launch of the nationwide malaria control program. This study investigated the malaria distribution in China, particularly in provinces with high risks. Spatial and temporal data were assembled for all endemic or historically endemic areas and combined to identify common patterns and to investigate the actual changes in the burden of malaria in the country. Data were analyzed and the progress in malaria elimination feasibility was discussed. The results indicated that the current distribution of malaria and vectors associated could provide evidence on the assessment of the feasibility of the malaria elimination in China.

  15. Malaria on the move: human population movement and malaria transmission.

    PubMed Central

    Martens, P.; Hall, L.

    2000-01-01

    Reports of malaria are increasing in many countries and in areas thought free of the disease. One of the factors contributing to the reemergence of malaria is human migration. People move for a number of reasons, including environmental deterioration, economic necessity, conflicts, and natural disasters. These factors are most likely to affect the poor, many of whom live in or near malarious areas. Identifying and understanding the influence of these population movements can improve prevention measures and malaria control programs. PMID:10756143

  16. Appendix C: Biomass Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  17. Estimation of human body concentrations of DDT from indoor residual spraying for malaria control.

    PubMed

    Gyalpo, Tenzing; Fritsche, Lukas; Bouwman, Henk; Bornman, Riana; Scheringer, Martin; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2012-10-01

    Inhabitants of dwellings treated with DDT for indoor residual spraying show high DDT levels in blood and breast milk. This is of concern since mothers transfer lipid-soluble contaminants such as DDT via breastfeeding to their children. Focusing on DDT use in South Africa, we employ a pharmacokinetic model to estimate DDT levels in human lipid tissue over the lifetime of an individual to determine the amount of DDT transferred to children during breastfeeding, and to identify the dominant DDT uptake routes. In particular, the effects of breastfeeding duration, parity, and mother's age on DDT concentrations of mother and infant are investigated. Model results show that primiparous mothers have greater DDT concentrations than multiparous mothers, which causes higher DDT exposure of first-born children. DDT in the body mainly originates from diet. Generally, our modeled DDT levels reproduce levels found in South African biomonitoring data within a factor of 3.

  18. On the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall temporal distribution to simulate the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, Teresa K.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2011-02-01

    This paper describes the use of satellite-based estimates of rainfall to force the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS), a hydrology-based mechanistic model of malaria transmission. We first examined the temporal resolution of rainfall input required by HYDREMATS. Simulations conducted over Banizoumbou village in Niger showed that for reasonably accurate simulation of mosquito populations, the model requires rainfall data with at least 1 h resolution. We then investigated whether HYDREMATS could be effectively forced by satellite-based estimates of rainfall instead of ground-based observations. The Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) precipitation estimates distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are available at a 30 min temporal resolution and 8 km spatial resolution. We compared mosquito populations simulated by HYDREMATS when the model is forced by adjusted CMORPH estimates and by ground observations. The results demonstrate that adjusted rainfall estimates from satellites can be used with a mechanistic model to accurately simulate the dynamics of mosquito populations.

  19. Program CONTRAST--A general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.

    1989-01-01

    This manual describes the use of program CONTRAST, which implements a generalized procedure for the comparison of several rate estimates. This method can be used to test both simple and composite hypotheses about rate estimates, and we discuss its application to multiple comparisons of survival rate estimates. Several examples of the use of program CONTRAST are presented. Program CONTRAST will run on IBM-cimpatible computers, and requires estimates of the rates to be tested, along with associated variance and covariance estimates.

  20. Malaria (For Parents)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Story" 5 Things to Know About Zika & Pregnancy Malaria KidsHealth > For Parents > Malaria Print A A A ... Prevention Diagnosis and Treatment en español Malaria About Malaria Malaria is a common infection in hot, tropical ...

  1. Use of Integrated Malaria Management Reduces Malaria in Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Okech, Bernard A.; Mwobobia, Isaac K.; Kamau, Anthony; Muiruri, Samuel; Mutiso, Noah; Nyambura, Joyce; Mwatele, Cassian; Amano, Teruaki; Mwandawiro, Charles S.

    2008-01-01

    insecticide treated bed net and 81% reported buying the nets within the last 5 years. The community also used mosquito reduction measures including, in order of preference, environmental management (35%), mosquito repellent and smoke (31%) insecticide canister sprays (11%), and window and door screens (6%). These methods used by the community comprise an integrated malaria management (IMM) package. Over the last 4 years prior to this study, the malaria cases in the community hospital reduced from about 40% in 2000 to less than 10% by 2004 and by the year 2007 malaria cases decreased to zero. In addition, a one time cross-sectional malaria parasite survey detected no Plasmodium infection in 300 primary school children in the area. Mosquito vector populations were variable in the six villages but were generally lower in villages that did not engage in irrigation activities. The malaria risk as estimated by EIR remained low and varied by village and proximity to irrigation areas. The average EIR in the area was estimated at 0.011 infectious bites per person per day. Conclusions The usage of a combination of malaria control tools in an integrated fashion by residents of Mwea division might have influenced the decreased malaria cases in the district hospital and in the school children. A vigorous campaign emphasizing IMM should be adopted and expanded in Mwea division and in other areas with different eco-epidemiological patterns of malaria transmission. With sustained implementation and support from community members integrated malaria management can reduce malaria significantly in affected communities in Africa. PMID:19115000

  2. Mapping residual transmission for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Reiner, Robert C; Le Menach, Arnaud; Kunene, Simon; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Hsiang, Michelle S; Perkins, T Alex; Greenhouse, Bryan; Tatem, Andrew J; Cohen, Justin M; Smith, David L

    2015-12-29

    Eliminating malaria from a defined region involves draining the endemic parasite reservoir and minimizing local malaria transmission around imported malaria infections . In the last phases of malaria elimination, as universal interventions reap diminishing marginal returns, national resources must become increasingly devoted to identifying where residual transmission is occurring. The needs for accurate measures of progress and practical advice about how to allocate scarce resources require new analytical methods to quantify fine-grained heterogeneity in malaria risk. Using routine national surveillance data from Swaziland (a sub-Saharan country on the verge of elimination), we estimated individual reproductive numbers. Fine-grained maps of reproductive numbers and local malaria importation rates were combined to show 'malariogenic potential', a first for malaria elimination. As countries approach elimination, these individual-based measures of transmission risk provide meaningful metrics for planning programmatic responses and prioritizing areas where interventions will contribute most to malaria elimination.

  3. Domestic Larval Control Practices and Malaria Prevalence among Under-Five Children in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Diabaté, Souleymane; Druetz, Thomas; Millogo, Tiéba; Ly, Antarou; Fregonese, Federica; Kouanda, Seni; Haddad, Slim

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Larval source management has contributed to malaria decline over the past years. However, little is known about the impact of larval control practices undertaken at the household level on malaria transmission. Methods The study was conducted in Kaya health district after the 2010 mass distribution of insecticide treated-nets and the initiation of malaria awareness campaigns in Burkina Faso. The aim was to (i) estimate the level of domestic larval control practices (cleaning of the house and its surroundings, eradication of larval sources, and elimination of hollow objects that might collect water); (ii) identify key determinants; and (iii) explore the structural relationships between these practices, participation in awareness-raising activities and mothers’ knowledge/attitudes/practices, and malaria prevalence among under-five children. Results Overall, 2004 households were surveyed and 1,705 under-five children were examined. Half of the mothers undertook at least one action to control larval proliferation. Mothers who had gone to school had better knowledge about malaria and were more likely to undertake domestic larval control practices. Living in highly exposed rural areas significantly decreased the odds of undertaking larval control actions. Mothers’ participation in malaria information sessions increased the adoption of vector control actions and bednet use. Malaria prevalence was statistically lower among children in households where mothers had undertaken at least one vector control action or used bed-nets. There was a 0.16 standard deviation decrease in malaria prevalence for every standard deviation increase in vector control practices. The effect of bednet use on malaria prevalence was of the same magnitude. Conclusion Cleaning the house and its surroundings, eradicating breeding sites, and eliminating hollow objects that might collect water play a substantial role in preventing malaria among under-five. There is a need for national

  4. Using Propensity Scoring to Estimate Program-Related Subgroup Impacts in Experimental Program Evaluations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schochet, Peter; Burghardt, John

    2007-01-01

    This article discusses the use of propensity scoring in experimental program evaluations to estimate impacts for subgroups defined by program features and participants' program experiences. The authors discuss estimation issues and provide specification tests. They also discuss the use of an overlooked data collection design--obtaining predictions…

  5. Malaria elimination: surveillance and response

    PubMed Central

    Bridges, Daniel J; Winters, Anna M; Hamer, Davidson H

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, substantial progress has been made in reducing malaria-associated morbidity and mortality across the globe. Nevertheless, sustained malaria control is essential to continue this downward trend. In some countries, where aggressive malaria control has reduced malaria to a low burden level, elimination, either nationally or subnationally, is now the aim. As countries or areas with a low malaria burden move towards elimination, there is a transition away from programs of universal coverage towards a strategy of localized detection and response to individual malaria cases. To do so and succeed, it is imperative that a strong surveillance and response system is supported, that community cadres are trained to provide appropriate diagnostics and treatment, and that field diagnostics are further developed such that their sensitivity allows for the detection and subsequent treatment of malaria reservoirs in low prevalence environments. To be certain, there are big challenges on the road to elimination, notably the development of drug and insecticide resistance. Nevertheless, countries like Zambia are making great strides towards implementing systems that support malaria elimination in target areas. Continued development of new diagnostics and antimalarial therapies is needed to support progress in malaria control and elimination. PMID:23265423

  6. EDIN0613P weight estimating program. [for launch vehicles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hirsch, G. N.

    1976-01-01

    The weight estimating relationships and program developed for space power system simulation are described. The program was developed to size a two-stage launch vehicle for the space power system. The program is actually part of an overall simulation technique called EDIN (Engineering Design and Integration) system. The program sizes the overall vehicle, generates major component weights and derives a large amount of overall vehicle geometry. The program is written in FORTRAN V and is designed for use on the Univac Exec 8 (1110). By utilizing the flexibility of this program while remaining cognizant of the limits imposed upon output depth and accuracy by utilization of generalized input, this program concept can be a useful tool for estimating purposes at the conceptual design stage of a launch vehicle.

  7. Malaria in the WHO Southeast Asia region.

    PubMed

    Kondrashin, A V

    1992-09-01

    Malaria endemic countries in the southeast Asia region include Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Indonesia, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Population movement and rapid urbanization, both largely caused by unemployment, and environmental deterioration change the malaria pattern. They also increase the incidence of drug-resistant malaria, especially resistance to 4-aminoquinolines. In India, Plasmodium falciparum is linked to the density and distribution of tribals, and, in southern Thailand, rubber tappers have the highest malaria incidence rate (46.29%). Since the population is young and the young are highly sensitive to malaria infection, the region has low community immunity. High malaria priority areas are forests, forested hills, forest fringe areas, developmental project sites, and border areas. High risk groups include infants, young children, pregnant women, and mobile population groups. Malaria incidence is between 2.5-2.8 million cases, and the slide positivity rate is about 3%. P. falciparum constitutes 40% for all malaria cases. In 1988 in India, there were 222 malaria deaths. Malaria is the 7th most common cause of death in Thailand. 3 of the 19 Anopheline species are resistant to at least 1 insecticide, particularly DDT. Posteradication epidemics surfaced in the mid-1970s. Malaria control programs tend to use the primary health care and integration approach to malaria control. Antiparasite measures range from a single-dose of an antimalarial to mass drug administration. Residual spraying continues to be the main strategy of vector control. Some other vector control measures are fish feeding on mosquito larvae, insecticide impregnated mosquito nets, and repellents. Control programs also have health education activities. India allocates the highest percentage of its total health budget to malaria control (21.54%). Few malariology training programs exist in the region. Slowly processed surveillance data limit the countries' ability to

  8. Mice lacking Programmed cell death-1 show a role for CD8+ T cells in long-term immunity against blood-stage malaria

    PubMed Central

    Horne-Debets, Joshua M.; Karunarathne, Deshapriya S.; Faleiro, Rebecca J.; Poh, Chek Meng; Renia, Laurent; Wykes, Michelle N.

    2016-01-01

    Even after years of experiencing malaria, caused by infection with Plasmodium species, individuals still have incomplete immunity and develop low-density parasitemia on re-infection. Previous studies using the P. chabaudi (Pch) mouse model to understand the reason for chronic malaria, found that mice with a deletion of programmed cell death-1 (PD-1KO) generate sterile immunity unlike wild type (WT) mice. Here we investigated if the mechanism underlying this defect during acute immunity also impacts on long-term immunity. We infected WT and PD-1KO mice with Pch-malaria and measured protection as well as immune responses against re-infections, 15 or 20 weeks after the original infection had cleared. WT mice showed approximately 1% parasitemia compared to sterile immunity in PD-1KO mice on re-infection. An examination of the mechanisms of immunity behind this long-term protection in PD-1KO mice showed a key role for parasite-specific CD8+ T cells even when CD4+ T cells and B cells responded to re-infection. These studies indicate that long-term CD8+ T cell-meditated protection requires consideration for future malaria vaccine design, as part of a multi-cell type response. PMID:27217330

  9. [The ABCD of malaria prevention in pediatric travelers].

    PubMed

    Berberian, Griselda; Rosanova, M Teresa; Torroija, Cecilia; Praino, M Laura

    2014-10-01

    The development and spread of drug resistant malaria parasites, population and travelers movements to malaria zones have led to the resurgence of malaria as a global health problem. Estimates suggest that 660,000 deaths occur annually, mainly in infants, children and pregnant woman. Disease knowledge and protection against mosquito bites are the first line of defense against malaria. Malaria chemoprophylaxis adds to these measures, it must be evaluated based on the individual risk.

  10. Estimating Software Effort Hours for Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wallshein, Corinne C.

    2010-01-01

    Software Cost Estimation (SCE) uses labor hours or effort required to conceptualize, develop, integrate, test, field, or maintain program components. Department of Defense (DoD) SCE can use initial software data parameters to project effort hours for large, software-intensive programs for contractors reporting the top levels of process maturity,…

  11. KERNELHR: A program for estimating animal home ranges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Seaman, D.E.; Griffith, B.; Powell, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    Kernel methods are state of the art for estimating animal home-range area and utilization distribution (UD). The KERNELHR program was developed to provide researchers and managers a tool to implement this extremely flexible set of methods with many variants. KERNELHR runs interactively or from the command line on any personal computer (PC) running DOS. KERNELHR provides output of fixed and adaptive kernel home-range estimates, as well as density values in a format suitable for in-depth statistical and spatial analyses. An additional package of programs creates contour files for plotting in geographic information systems (GIS) and estimates core areas of ranges.

  12. Progress with new malaria vaccines.

    PubMed Central

    Webster, Daniel; Hill, Adrian V. S.

    2003-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic disease of major global health significance that causes an estimated 2.7 million deaths each year. In this review we describe the burden of malaria and discuss the complicated life cycle of Plasmodium falciparum, the parasite responsible for most of the deaths from the disease, before reviewing the evidence that suggests that a malaria vaccine is an attainable goal. Significant advances have recently been made in vaccine science, and we review new vaccine technologies and the evaluation of candidate malaria vaccines in human and animal studies worldwide. Finally, we discuss the prospects for a malaria vaccine and the need for iterative vaccine development as well as potential hurdles to be overcome. PMID:14997243

  13. Load estimator (LOADEST): a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Runkel, Robert L.; Crawford, Charles G.; Cohn, Timothy A.

    2004-01-01

    LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST) is a FORTRAN program for estimating constituent loads in streams and rivers. Given a time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and constituent concentration, LOADEST assists the user in developing a regression model for the estimation of constituent load (calibration). Explanatory variables within the regression model include various functions of streamflow, decimal time, and additional user-specified data variables. The formulated regression model then is used to estimate loads over a user-specified time interval (estimation). Mean load estimates, standard errors, and 95 percent confidence intervals are developed on a monthly and(or) seasonal basis. The calibration and estimation procedures within LOADEST are based on three statistical estimation methods. The first two methods, Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (AMLE) and Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), are appropriate when the calibration model errors (residuals) are normally distributed. Of the two, AMLE is the method of choice when the calibration data set (time series of streamflow, additional data variables, and concentration) contains censored data. The third method, Least Absolute Deviation (LAD), is an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation when the residuals are not normally distributed. LOADEST output includes diagnostic tests and warnings to assist the user in determining the appropriate estimation method and in interpreting the estimated loads. This report describes the development and application of LOADEST. Sections of the report describe estimation theory, input/output specifications, sample applications, and installation instructions.

  14. Space Station Furnace Facility. Volume 3: Program cost estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1992-01-01

    The approach used to estimate costs for the Space Station Furnace Facility (SSFF) is based on a computer program developed internally at Teledyne Brown Engineering (TBE). The program produces time-phased estimates of cost elements for each hardware component, based on experience with similar components. Engineering estimates of the degree of similarity or difference between the current project and the historical data is then used to adjust the computer-produced cost estimate and to fit it to the current project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). The SSFF Concept as presented at the Requirements Definition Review (RDR) was used as the base configuration for the cost estimate. This program incorporates data on costs of previous projects and the allocation of those costs to the components of one of three, time-phased, generic WBS's. Input consists of a list of similar components for which cost data exist, number of interfaces with their type and complexity, identification of the extent to which previous designs are applicable, and programmatic data concerning schedules and miscellaneous data (travel, off-site assignments). Output is program cost in labor hours and material dollars, for each component, broken down by generic WBS task and program schedule phase.

  15. Native Larvivorous Fish in an Endemic Malarious Area of Southern Iran, a Biological Alternative Factor for Chemical Larvicides in Malaria Control Program

    PubMed Central

    SHAHI, Mehran; KAMRANI, Ehsan; SALEHI, Mehrdad; HABIBI, Reza; HANAFI-BOJD, Ahmad Ali

    2015-01-01

    Background: The widespread use of chemical insecticides, resistance in vectors and environmental problems, all have led to an increased interest in the use of biological agents in malaria control programs. The most important functional elements are the native fish. The aim of this study was to identify the native species of lavivorous fish in Rudan County, southern Iran, to introduce an effective species and to propose its’ implementation in the national malaria control program. Methods: This ecologically descriptive study was conducted during 2011–2012 using random sampling from different fish habitats of Rudan County. The shoals of fish were caught using fishing net. Fish samples were then identified in the Ichthyology lab, Department of Fisheries and the Environment, Hormozgan University. Results: Three species of larvivorous fish were identified as follows: Gambusia holbrooki, Aphaniusdispar dispar and Aphanius sp. The latter species has the most distribution in the study area and needs more morphological and molecular studies for identification at the species level. Conclusion: Two species of native fish, i.e., A. dispar and A. sp. with larvivorous potential live in the area. Further studies on their predatory property are recommended in order to apply this local potential against malaria vectors in the area. PMID:26744713

  16. The burden of malaria in pregnancy in malaria-endemic areas.

    PubMed

    Steketee, R W; Nahlen, B L; Parise, M E; Menendez, C

    2001-01-01

    Pregnant women in malarious areas may experience a variety of adverse consequences from malaria infection including maternal anemia, placental accumulation of parasites, low birth weight (LBW) from prematurity and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), fetal parasite exposure and congenital infection, and infant mortality (IM) linked to preterm-LBW and IUGR-LBW. We reviewed studies between 1985 and 2000 and summarized the malaria population attributable risk (PAR) that accounts for both the prevalence of the risk factors in the population and the magnitude of the associated risk for anemia, LBW, and IM. Consequences from anemia and human immunodeficiency virus infection in these studies were also considered. Population attributable risks were substantial: malaria was associated with anemia (PAR range = 3-15%), LBW (8-14%), preterm-LBW (8-36%), IUGR-LBW (13-70%), and IM (3-8%). Human immunodeficiency virus was associated with anemia (PAR range = 12-14%), LBW (11-38%), and direct transmission in 20-40% of newborns, with direct mortality consequences. Maternal anemia was associated with LBW (PAR range = 7-18%), and fetal anemia was associated with increased IM (PAR not available). We estimate that each year 75,000 to 200,000 infant deaths are associated with malaria infection in pregnancy. The failure to apply known effective antimalarial interventions through antenatal programs continues to contribute substantially to infant deaths globally.

  17. ASCAL: A Microcomputer Program for Estimating Logistic IRT Item Parameters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vale, C. David; Gialluca, Kathleen A.

    ASCAL is a microcomputer-based program for calibrating items according to the three-parameter logistic model of item response theory. It uses a modified multivariate Newton-Raphson procedure for estimating item parameters. This study evaluated this procedure using Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques. The current version of ASCAL was then compared to…

  18. SECPOP90: Sector population, land fraction, and economic estimation program

    SciTech Connect

    Humphreys, S.L.; Rollstin, J.A.; Ridgely, J.N.

    1997-09-01

    In 1973 Mr. W. Athey of the Environmental Protection Agency wrote a computer program called SECPOP which calculated population estimates. Since that time, two things have changed which suggested the need for updating the original program - more recent population censuses and the widespread use of personal computers (PCs). The revised computer program uses the 1990 and 1992 Population Census information and runs on current PCs as {open_quotes}SECPOP90.{close_quotes} SECPOP90 consists of two parts: site and regional. The site provides population and economic data estimates for any location within the continental United States. Siting analysis is relatively fast running. The regional portion assesses site availability for different siting policy decisions; i.e., the impact of available sites given specific population density criteria within the continental United States. Regional analysis is slow. This report compares the SECPOP90 population estimates and the nuclear power reactor licensee-provided information. Although the source, and therefore the accuracy, of the licensee information is unknown, this comparison suggests SECPOP90 makes reasonable estimates. Given the total uncertainty in any current calculation of severe accidents, including the potential offsite consequences, the uncertainty within SECPOP90 population estimates is expected to be insignificant. 12 refs., 55 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Efficiency of Nested-PCR in Detecting Asymptomatic Cases toward Malaria Elimination Program in an Endemic Area of Iran

    PubMed Central

    TURKI, Habibollah; RAEISI, Ahmad; MALEKZADEH, Kianoosh; GHANBARNEJAD, Amin; ZOGHI, Samaneh; YERYAN, Masoud; ABEDI NEJAD, Masoumeh; MOHSENI, Fatemeh; SHEKARI, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to detect low parasite and asymptomatic malaria infections by means of three malaria diagnostic tests, in a low transmission region of Minab district, Hormozgan Province, southern Iran. Methods: Blood samples of 200 healthy volunteers from Bagh-e-Malek area were evaluated using microscopic, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and nested-PCR to inspect malaria parasite. Results: The results showed no Plasmodium parasite in subjects by means of microscopy and RDT. However, 3 P. vivax positive samples (1.5%) were discovered by Nested-PCR while microscopy and RDT missed the cases. Conclusion: Microscopy as the gold standard method and RDT correctly identified 98.5% of cases, and molecular analysis is sensitive and reliable, especially in the detection of “asymptomatic” infections for active case surveillance. Regarding the existence of asymptomatic malaria in endemic area of Hormozgan, Iran, nested-PCR could be considered as a sensitive tool to interrupt malaria transmission in the country, beside the microscopic and RDT methods. PMID:25904944

  20. Malaria in pregnancy: current issues.

    PubMed

    Brabin, B

    1997-01-01

    Though not known why, pregnant women are far more susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum malaria during their first pregnancies. Therefore, in sub-Saharan African countries endemic for malaria, almost half of all primigravidae will be parasitemic at their first antenatal visit. Some estimate that up to half of all low birth weight babies born to primigravidae in malaria-endemic areas may be attributable to malaria. Intrauterine growth in the context of maternal parasitemia therefore has major adverse implications for child survival. For the mothers, the prevalence of anemia among pregnant women is greatly increased in malarious areas, and iron-deficiency anemia in pregnant women in developed countries has been associated with pre-term birth and low birth weight. These adverse health and developmental consequences of malaria infection among mothers and their babies is compounded by the absence of any widely-applied recommendation for malaria control in pregnant women in Africa. Current control strategies are nonetheless described. The influence of HIV infection in relation to the effectiveness of malaria drug control during pregnancy has not been assessed.

  1. Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

  2. A computer program for estimation from incomplete multinomial data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Credeur, K. R.

    1978-01-01

    Coding is given for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the vector p of multinomial cell probabilities from incomplete data. Also included is coding to calculate and approximate elements of the posterior mean and covariance matrices. The program is written in FORTRAN 4 language for the Control Data CYBER 170 series digital computer system with network operating system (NOS) 1.1. The program requires approximately 44000 octal locations of core storage. A typical case requires from 72 seconds to 92 seconds on CYBER 175 depending on the value of the prior parameter.

  3. Hemozoin detection may provide an inexpensive, sensitive, 1-minute malaria test that could revolutionize malaria screening.

    PubMed

    Grimberg, Brian T; Grimberg, Kerry O

    2016-10-01

    Malaria remains widespread throughout the tropics and is a burden to the estimated 3.5 billion people who are exposed annually. The lack of a fast and accurate diagnostic method contributes to preventable malaria deaths and its continued transmission. In many areas diagnosis is made solely based on clinical presentation. Current methods for malaria diagnosis take more than 20 minutes from the time blood is drawn and are frequently inaccurate. The introduction of an accurate malaria diagnostic that can provide a result in less than 1 minute would allow for widespread screening and treatment of endemic populations, and enable regions that have gained a foothold against malaria to prevent its return. Using malaria parasites' waste product, hemozoin, as a biomarker for the presence of malaria could be the tool needed to develop this rapid test. PMID:27530228

  4. Hemozoin detection may provide an inexpensive, sensitive, 1-minute malaria test that could revolutionize malaria screening.

    PubMed

    Grimberg, Brian T; Grimberg, Kerry O

    2016-10-01

    Malaria remains widespread throughout the tropics and is a burden to the estimated 3.5 billion people who are exposed annually. The lack of a fast and accurate diagnostic method contributes to preventable malaria deaths and its continued transmission. In many areas diagnosis is made solely based on clinical presentation. Current methods for malaria diagnosis take more than 20 minutes from the time blood is drawn and are frequently inaccurate. The introduction of an accurate malaria diagnostic that can provide a result in less than 1 minute would allow for widespread screening and treatment of endemic populations, and enable regions that have gained a foothold against malaria to prevent its return. Using malaria parasites' waste product, hemozoin, as a biomarker for the presence of malaria could be the tool needed to develop this rapid test.

  5. Oxidative Stress in Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Percário, Sandro; Moreira, Danilo R.; Gomes, Bruno A. Q.; Ferreira, Michelli E. S.; Gonçalves, Ana Carolina M.; Laurindo, Paula S. O. C.; Vilhena, Thyago C.; Dolabela, Maria F.; Green, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Malaria is a significant public health problem in more than 100 countries and causes an estimated 200 million new infections every year. Despite the significant effort to eradicate this dangerous disease, lack of complete knowledge of its physiopathology compromises the success in this enterprise. In this paper we review oxidative stress mechanisms involved in the disease and discuss the potential benefits of antioxidant supplementation as an adjuvant antimalarial strategy. PMID:23208374

  6. Semidefinite Programming for Approximate Maximum Likelihood Sinusoidal Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lui, Kenneth W. K.; So, H. C.

    2009-12-01

    We study the convex optimization approach for parameter estimation of several sinusoidal models, namely, single complex/real tone, multiple complex sinusoids, and single two-dimensional complex tone, in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. The major difficulty for optimally determining the parameters is that the corresponding maximum likelihood (ML) estimators involve finding the global minimum or maximum of multimodal cost functions because the frequencies are nonlinear in the observed signals. By relaxing the nonconvex ML formulations using semidefinite programs, high-fidelity approximate solutions are obtained in a globally optimum fashion. Computer simulations are included to contrast the estimation performance of the proposed semi-definite relaxation methods with the iterative quadratic maximum likelihood technique as well as Cramér-Rao lower bound.

  7. False positive circumsporozoite protein ELISA: a challenge for the estimation of the entomological inoculation rate of malaria and for vector incrimination

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The entomological inoculation rate (EIR) is an important indicator in estimating malaria transmission and the impact of vector control. To assess the EIR, the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to detect the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) is increasingly used. However, several studies have reported false positive results in this ELISA. The false positive results could lead to an overestimation of the EIR. The aim of present study was to estimate the level of false positivity among different anopheline species in Cambodia and Vietnam and to check for the presence of other parasites that might interact with the anti-CSP monoclonal antibodies. Methods Mosquitoes collected in Cambodia and Vietnam were identified and tested for the presence of sporozoites in head and thorax by using CSP-ELISA. ELISA positive samples were confirmed by a Plasmodium specific PCR. False positive mosquitoes were checked by PCR for the presence of parasites belonging to the Haemosporidia, Trypanosomatidae, Piroplasmida, and Haemogregarines. The heat-stability and the presence of the cross-reacting antigen in the abdomen of the mosquitoes were also checked. Results Specimens (N = 16,160) of seven anopheline species were tested by CSP-ELISA for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax (Pv210 and Pv247). Two new vector species were identified for the region: Anopheles pampanai (P. vivax) and Anopheles barbirostris (Plasmodium malariae). In 88% (155/176) of the mosquitoes found positive with the P. falciparum CSP-ELISA, the presence of Plasmodium sporozoites could not be confirmed by PCR. This percentage was much lower (28% or 5/18) for P. vivax CSP-ELISAs. False positive CSP-ELISA results were associated with zoophilic mosquito species. None of the targeted parasites could be detected in these CSP-ELISA false positive mosquitoes. The ELISA reacting antigen of P. falciparum was heat-stable in CSP-ELISA true positive specimens, but not in the false positives. The heat

  8. Evaluation of an artificial intelligence program for estimating occupational exposures.

    PubMed

    Johnston, Karen L; Phillips, Margaret L; Esmen, Nurtan A; Hall, Thomas A

    2005-03-01

    Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure (EASE) is an artificial intelligence program developed by UK's Health and Safety Executive to assess exposure. EASE computes estimated airborne concentrations based on a substance's vapor pressure and the types of controls in the work area. Though EASE is intended only to make broad predictions of exposure from occupational environments, some occupational hygienists might attempt to use EASE for individual exposure characterizations. This study investigated whether EASE would accurately predict actual sampling results from a chemical manufacturing process. Personal breathing zone time-weighted average (TWA) monitoring data for two volatile organic chemicals--a common solvent (toluene) and a specialty monomer (chloroprene)--present in this manufacturing process were compared to EASE-generated estimates. EASE-estimated concentrations for specific tasks were weighted by task durations reported in the monitoring record to yield TWA estimates from EASE that could be directly compared to the measured TWA data. Two hundred and six chloroprene and toluene full-shift personal samples were selected from eight areas of this manufacturing process. The Spearman correlation between EASE TWA estimates and measured TWA values was 0.55 for chloroprene and 0.44 for toluene, indicating moderate predictive values for both compounds. For toluene, the interquartile range of EASE estimates at least partially overlapped the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in all process areas. The interquartile range of EASE estimates for chloroprene fell above the interquartile range of the measured data distributions in one process area, partially overlapped the third quartile of the measured data in five process areas and fell within the interquartile range in two process areas. EASE is not a substitute for actual exposure monitoring. However, EASE can be used in conditions that cannot otherwise be sampled and in preliminary

  9. A Fortran IV Program for Estimating Parameters through Multiple Matrix Sampling with Standard Errors of Estimate Approximated by the Jackknife.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shoemaker, David M.

    Described and listed herein with concomitant sample input and output is the Fortran IV program which estimates parameters and standard errors of estimate per parameters for parameters estimated through multiple matrix sampling. The specific program is an improved and expanded version of an earlier version. (Author/BJG)

  10. Barriers to the effective treatment and prevention of malaria in Africa: A systematic review of qualitative studies

    PubMed Central

    2009-01-01

    Background In Africa, an estimated 300-500 million cases of malaria occur each year resulting in approximately 1 million deaths. More than 90% of these are in children under 5 years of age. To identify commonly held beliefs about malaria that might present barriers to its successful treatment and prevention, we conducted a systematic review of qualitative studies examining beliefs and practices concerning malaria in sub-Saharan African countries. Methods We searched Medline and Scopus (1966-2009) and identified 39 studies that employed qualitative methods (focus groups and interviews) to examine the knowledge, attitudes, and practices of people living in African countries where malaria is endemic. Data were extracted relating to study characteristics, and themes pertaining to barriers to malaria treatment and prevention. Results The majority of studies were conducted in rural areas, and focused mostly or entirely on children. Major barriers to prevention reported included a lack of understanding of the cause and transmission of malaria (29/39), the belief that malaria cannot be prevented (7/39), and the use of ineffective prevention measures (12/39). Thirty-seven of 39 articles identified barriers to malaria treatment, including concerns about the safety and efficacy of conventional medicines (15/39), logistical obstacles, and reliance on traditional remedies. Specific barriers to the treatment of childhood malaria identified included the belief that a child with convulsions could die if given an injection or taken to hospital (10/39). Conclusion These findings suggest that large-scale malaria prevention and treatment programs must account for the social and cultural contexts in which they are deployed. Further quantitative research should be undertaken to more precisely measure the impact of the themes uncovered by this exploratory analysis. PMID:19852857

  11. Estimated emission reductions from California's enhanced Smog Check program.

    PubMed

    Singer, Brett C; Wenzel, Thomas P

    2003-06-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency requires that states evaluate the effectiveness of their vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. This study demonstrates an evaluation approach that estimates mass emission reductions over time and includes the effect of I/M on vehicle deterioration. It includes a quantitative assessment of benefits from pre-inspection maintenance and repairs and accounts for the selection bias effect that occurs when intermittent high emitters are tested. We report estimates of one-cycle emission benefits of California's Enhanced Smog Check program, ca. 1999. Program benefits equivalent to metric tons per day of prevented emissions were calculated with a "bottom-up" approach that combined average per vehicle reductions in mass emission rates (g/gal) with average per vehicle activity, resolved by model year. Accelerated simulation mode test data from the statewide vehicle information database (VID) and from roadside Smog Check testing were used to determine 2-yr emission profiles of vehicles passing through Smog Check and infer emission profiles that would occur without Smog Check. The number of vehicles participating in Smog Check was also determined from the VID. We estimate that in 1999 Smog Check reduced tailpipe emissions of HC, CO, and NO(x) by 97, 1690, and 81 t/d, respectively. These correspond to 26, 34, and 14% of the HC, CO, and NO(x) that would have been emitted by vehicles in the absence of Smog Check. These estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions about vehicle deterioration in the absence of Smog Check. Considering the estimated uncertainty in these assumptions yields a range for calculated benefits: 46-128 t/d of HC, 860-2200 t/d of CO, and 60-91 t/d of NO(x). Repair of vehicles that failed an initial, official Smog Check appears to be the most important mechanism of emission reductions, but pre-inspection maintenance and repair also contributed substantially. Benefits from removal of nonpassing

  12. The National Streamflow Statistics Program: A Computer Program for Estimating Streamflow Statistics for Ungaged Sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries(compiler), Kernell G.; With sections by Atkins, J. B.; Hummel, P.R.; Gray, Matthew J.; Dusenbury, R.; Jennings, M.E.; Kirby, W.H.; Riggs, H.C.; Sauer, V.B.; Thomas, W.O.

    2007-01-01

    The National Streamflow Statistics (NSS) Program is a computer program that should be useful to engineers, hydrologists, and others for planning, management, and design applications. NSS compiles all current U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regional regression equations for estimating streamflow statistics at ungaged sites in an easy-to-use interface that operates on computers with Microsoft Windows operating systems. NSS expands on the functionality of the USGS National Flood Frequency Program, and replaces it. The regression equations included in NSS are used to transfer streamflow statistics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, the equations were developed on a statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs. Equations are available for estimating rural and urban flood-frequency statistics, such as the 1 00-year flood, for every state, for Puerto Rico, and for the island of Tutuila, American Samoa. Equations are available for estimating other statistics, such as the mean annual flow, monthly mean flows, flow-duration percentiles, and low-flow frequencies (such as the 7-day, 0-year low flow) for less than half of the states. All equations available for estimating streamflow statistics other than flood-frequency statistics assume rural (non-regulated, non-urbanized) conditions. The NSS output provides indicators of the accuracy of the estimated streamflow statistics. The indicators may include any combination of the standard error of estimate, the standard error of prediction, the equivalent years of record, or 90 percent prediction intervals, depending on what was provided by the authors of the equations. The program includes several other features that can be used only for flood-frequency estimation. These include the ability to generate flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals

  13. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-01

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.

  14. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics.

    PubMed

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-21

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times. PMID:27448871

  15. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-12-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  16. The march toward malaria vaccines.

    PubMed

    Hoffman, Stephen L; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L; Duffy, Patrick E

    2015-11-27

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  17. The March Toward Malaria Vaccines

    PubMed Central

    Hoffman, Stephen L.; Vekemans, Johan; Richie, Thomas L.; Duffy, Patrick E.

    2016-01-01

    In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of

  18. Malaria control in Tanzania

    SciTech Connect

    Yhdego, M.; Majura, P. )

    1988-01-01

    A review of the malaria control programs and the problem encountered in the United Republic of Tanzania since 1945 to the year 1986 is discussed. Buguruni, one of the squatter areas in the city of Dar es Salaam, is chosen as a case study in order to evaluate the economic advantage of engineering methods for the control of malaria infection. Although the initial capital cost of engineering methods may be high, the cost effectiveness requires a much lower financial burden of only about Tshs. 3 million compared with the conventional methods of larviciding and insecticiding which requires more than Tshs. 10 million. Finally, recommendations for the adoption of engineering methods are made concerning the upgrading of existing roads and footpaths in general with particular emphasis on drainage of large pools of water which serve as breeding sites for mosquitoes.

  19. A computer program for the estimation of time of death.

    PubMed

    Lynnerup, N

    1993-07-01

    In the 1960s Marshall and Hoare presented a "Standard Cooling Curve" based on their mathematical analyses on the postmortem cooling of bodies. Although fairly accurate under standard conditions, the "curve" or formula is based on the assumption that the ambience temperature is constant and that the temperature at death is known. Also, Marshall and Hoare's formula expresses the temperature as a function of time, and not vice versa, the latter being the problem most often encountered by forensic scientists. A simple BASIC program that enables solving of Marshall and Hoare's equation for the postmortem cooling of bodies is presented. It is proposed that by having a computer program that solves the equation, giving the length of the cooling period in response to a certain rectal temperature, and which allows easy comparison of multiple solutions, the uncertainties related to ambience temperature and temperature at death can be quantified, substantiating estimations of time of death.

  20. Cost estimation model for advanced planetary programs, fourth edition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spadoni, D. J.

    1983-01-01

    The development of the planetary program cost model is discussed. The Model was updated to incorporate cost data from the most recent US planetary flight projects and extensively revised to more accurately capture the information in the historical cost data base. This data base is comprised of the historical cost data for 13 unmanned lunar and planetary flight programs. The revision was made with a two fold objective: to increase the flexibility of the model in its ability to deal with the broad scope of scenarios under consideration for future missions, and to maintain and possibly improve upon the confidence in the model's capabilities with an expected accuracy of 20%. The Model development included a labor/cost proxy analysis, selection of the functional forms of the estimating relationships, and test statistics. An analysis of the Model is discussed and two sample applications of the cost model are presented.

  1. Benefit Estimates of Terminal Area Productivity Program Technologies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hemm, Robert; Shapiro, Gerald; Lee, David; Gribko, Joana; Glaser, Bonnie

    1999-01-01

    This report documents benefit analyses for the NASA Terminal Area Technology (TAP) technology programs. Benefits are based on reductions in arrival delays at ten major airports over the 10 years from 2006 through 2015. Detailed analytic airport capacity and delay models were constructed to produce the estimates. The goal of TAP is enable good weather operations tempos in all weather conditions. The TAP program includes technologies to measure and predict runway occupancy times, reduce runway occupancy times in bad weather, accurately predict wake vortex hazards, and couple controller automation with aircraft flight management systems. The report presents and discusses the estimate results and describes the models. Three appendixes document the model algorithms and discuss the input parameters selected for the TAP technologies. The fourth appendix is the user's guide for the models. The results indicate that the combined benefits for all TAP technologies at all 10 airports range from $550 to $650 million per year (in constant 1997 dollars). Additional benefits will accrue from reductions in departure delays. Departure delay benefits are calculated by the current models.

  2. Malaria eradication and elimination: views on how to translate a vision into reality.

    PubMed

    Tanner, Marcel; Greenwood, Brian; Whitty, Christopher J M; Ansah, Evelyn K; Price, Ric N; Dondorp, Arjen M; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Baird, J Kevin; Beeson, James G; Fowkes, Freya J I; Hemingway, Janet; Marsh, Kevin; Osier, Faith

    2015-01-01

    Although global efforts in the past decade have halved the number of deaths due to malaria, there are still an estimated 219 million cases of malaria a year, causing more than half a million deaths. In this forum article, we asked experts working in malaria research and control to discuss the ways in which malaria might eventually be eradicated. Their collective views highlight the challenges and opportunities, and explain how multi-factorial and integrated processes could eventually make malaria eradication a reality.

  3. Malaria in Brazil: an overview

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Malaria is still a major public health problem in Brazil, with approximately 306 000 registered cases in 2009, but it is estimated that in the early 1940s, around six million cases of malaria occurred each year. As a result of the fight against the disease, the number of malaria cases decreased over the years and the smallest numbers of cases to-date were recorded in the 1960s. From the mid-1960s onwards, Brazil underwent a rapid and disorganized settlement process in the Amazon and this migratory movement led to a progressive increase in the number of reported cases. Although the main mosquito vector (Anopheles darlingi) is present in about 80% of the country, currently the incidence of malaria in Brazil is almost exclusively (99,8% of the cases) restricted to the region of the Amazon Basin, where a number of combined factors favors disease transmission and impair the use of standard control procedures. Plasmodium vivax accounts for 83,7% of registered cases, while Plasmodium falciparum is responsible for 16,3% and Plasmodium malariae is seldom observed. Although vivax malaria is thought to cause little mortality, compared to falciparum malaria, it accounts for much of the morbidity and for huge burdens on the prosperity of endemic communities. However, in the last few years a pattern of unusual clinical complications with fatal cases associated with P. vivax have been reported in Brazil and this is a matter of concern for Brazilian malariologists. In addition, the emergence of P. vivax strains resistant to chloroquine in some reports needs to be further investigated. In contrast, asymptomatic infection by P. falciparum and P. vivax has been detected in epidemiological studies in the states of Rondonia and Amazonas, indicating probably a pattern of clinical immunity in both autochthonous and migrant populations. Seropidemiological studies investigating the type of immune responses elicited in naturally-exposed populations to several malaria vaccine candidates in

  4. Climate, environment and transmission of malaria.

    PubMed

    Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Zaramella, Marco; Caputo, Annamaria; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

    2016-06-01

    Malaria, the most common parasitic disease in the world, is transmitted to the human host by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. The transmission of malaria requires the interaction between the host, the vector and the parasite.The four species of parasites responsible for human malaria are Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium vivax. Occasionally humans can be infected by several simian species, like Plasmodium knowlesi, recognised as a major cause of human malaria in South-East Asia since 2004. While P. falciparum is responsible for most malaria cases, about 8% of estimated cases globally are caused by P. vivax. The different Plasmodia are not uniformly distributed although there are areas of species overlap. The life cycle of all species of human malaria parasites is characterised by an exogenous sexual phase in which multiplication occurs in several species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and an endogenous asexual phase in the vertebrate host. The time span required for mature oocyst development in the salivary glands is quite variable (7-30 days), characteristic of each species and influenced by ambient temperature. The vector Anopheles includes 465 formally recognised species. Approximately 70 of these species have the capacity to transmit Plasmodium spp. to humans and 41 are considered as dominant vector capable of transmitting malaria. The intensity of transmission is dependent on the vectorial capacity and competence of local mosquitoes. An efficient system for malaria transmission needs strong interaction between humans, the ecosystem and infected vectors. Global warming induced by human activities has increased the risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Recent decades have witnessed changes in the ecosystem and climate without precedent in human history although the emphasis in the role of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria has given way to predisposing conditions such as ecosystem changes, political

  5. Climate, environment and transmission of malaria.

    PubMed

    Rossati, Antonella; Bargiacchi, Olivia; Kroumova, Vesselina; Zaramella, Marco; Caputo, Annamaria; Garavelli, Pietro Luigi

    2016-06-01

    Malaria, the most common parasitic disease in the world, is transmitted to the human host by mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles. The transmission of malaria requires the interaction between the host, the vector and the parasite.The four species of parasites responsible for human malaria are Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae and Plasmodium vivax. Occasionally humans can be infected by several simian species, like Plasmodium knowlesi, recognised as a major cause of human malaria in South-East Asia since 2004. While P. falciparum is responsible for most malaria cases, about 8% of estimated cases globally are caused by P. vivax. The different Plasmodia are not uniformly distributed although there are areas of species overlap. The life cycle of all species of human malaria parasites is characterised by an exogenous sexual phase in which multiplication occurs in several species of Anopheles mosquitoes, and an endogenous asexual phase in the vertebrate host. The time span required for mature oocyst development in the salivary glands is quite variable (7-30 days), characteristic of each species and influenced by ambient temperature. The vector Anopheles includes 465 formally recognised species. Approximately 70 of these species have the capacity to transmit Plasmodium spp. to humans and 41 are considered as dominant vector capable of transmitting malaria. The intensity of transmission is dependent on the vectorial capacity and competence of local mosquitoes. An efficient system for malaria transmission needs strong interaction between humans, the ecosystem and infected vectors. Global warming induced by human activities has increased the risk of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. Recent decades have witnessed changes in the ecosystem and climate without precedent in human history although the emphasis in the role of temperature on the epidemiology of malaria has given way to predisposing conditions such as ecosystem changes, political

  6. [Current malaria situation in Turkey].

    PubMed

    Gockchinar, T; Kalipsi, S

    2001-01-01

    Geographically, Turkey is situated in an area where malaria is very risky. The climatic conditions in the region are suitable for the malaria vector to proliferate. Due to agricultural infrastructural changes, GAP and other similar projects, insufficient environmental conditions, urbanization, national and international population moves, are a key to manage malaria control activities. It is estimated that malaria will be a potential danger for Turkey in the forthcoming years. The disease is located largely in south-eastern Anatolia. The Diyarbakir, Batman, Sanliurfa, Siirt, and Mardin districts are the most affected areas. In western districts, like Aydin and Manisa, an increase in the number of indigenous cases can be observed from time to time. This is due to workers moving from malaria districts to western parts to final work. Since these workers cannot be controlled, the population living in these regions get infected from indigenous cases. There were 84,345 malaria cases in 1994 and 82,096 in 1995, they decreased to 60,884 in 1996 and numbered 35,456 in 1997. They accounted for 36,842 and 20,963 in 1998 and 1999, respectively. In Turkey there are almost all cases of P. vivax malaria. There are also P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria cases coming from other countries: There were 321 P. vivax cases, including 2 P. falciparum ones, arriving to Turkey from Iraq in 1995. The P. vivax malaria cases accounted for 229 in 1996, and 67, cases P. vivax including 12 P. falciparum cases, in 1997, and 4 P. vivax cases in 1998 that came from that country. One P. vivax case entered Turkey from Georgia in 1998. The cause of higher incidence of P. vivax cases in 1995, it decreasing in 1999, is the lack of border controls over workers coming to Turkey. The other internationally imported cases are from Syria, Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, India, Azerbaijan, Malaysia, Ghana, Indonesia, Yemen. Our examinations have shown that none of these internationally imported cases

  7. Cost estimate for a proposed GDF Suez LNG testing program

    SciTech Connect

    Blanchat, Thomas K.; Brady, Patrick Dennis; Jernigan, Dann A.; Luketa, Anay Josephine; Nissen, Mark R.; Lopez, Carlos; Vermillion, Nancy; Hightower, Marion Michael

    2014-02-01

    At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost estimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured cost estimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

  8. Rabies, tetanus, leprosy, and malaria.

    PubMed

    Murthy, J M K; Dastur, Faram D; Khadilkar, Satish V; Kochar, Dhanpat K

    2014-01-01

    The developing world is still endemic to rabies, tetanus, leprosy, and malaria. Globally more than 55000 people die of rabies each year, about 95% in Asia and Africa. Annually, more than 10 million people, mostly in Asia, receive postexposure vaccination against the disease. World Health Organization estimated tetanus-related deaths at 163000 in 2004 worldwide. Globally, the annual detection of new cases of leprosy continues to decline and the global case detection declined by 3.54% during 2008 compared to 2007. Malaria is endemic in most countries, except the US, Canada, Europe, and Russia. Malaria accounts for 1.5-2.7 million deaths annually. Much of the disease burden related to these four infections is preventable.

  9. Cerebral malaria.

    PubMed

    Postels, Douglas G; Birbeck, Gretchen L

    2013-01-01

    Malaria, the most significant parasitic disease of man, kills approximately one million people per year. Half of these deaths occur in those with cerebral malaria (CM). The World Health Organization (WHO) defines CM as an otherwise unexplained coma in a patient with malarial parasitemia. Worldwide, CM occurs primarily in African children and Asian adults, with the vast majority (greater than 90%) of cases occurring in children 5 years old or younger in sub-Saharan Africa. The pathophysiology of the disease is complex and involves infected erythrocyte sequestration, cerebral inflammation, and breakdown of the blood-brain barrier. A recently characterized malarial retinopathy is visual evidence of Plasmodium falciparum's pathophysiological processes occurring in the affected patient. Treatment consists of supportive care and antimalarial administration. Thus far, adjuvant therapies have not been shown to improve mortality rates or neurological outcomes in children with CM. For those who survive CM, residual neurological abnormalities are common. Epilepsy, cognitive impairment, behavioral disorders, and gross neurological deficits which include motor, sensory, and language impairments are frequent sequelae. Primary prevention strategies, including bed nets, vaccine development, and chemoprophylaxis, are in varied states of development and implementation. Continuing efforts to find successful primary prevention options and strategies to decrease neurological sequelae are needed. PMID:23829902

  10. Malaria vaccine.

    PubMed

    Khurana, S K; Talib, V H

    1996-12-01

    Recently it has become evident that he same candidate antigen can be shared by several of the parasite stages, and thus the concept of a multistage vaccine is becoming more and more attractive. A TDR Task Force evaluated the promise and stage of development of some 20 existing asexual blood stage candidate antigens and prepared a strategy for their development leading to clinical testing and field trials, Amongst these are merozoite surface protein 1 (MSP-1), Serine Rich Antigen (SERA), Apical Membrane Antigen (AMA-1), and Erythrocyte Binding Antigen (EBA). A field study conducted in Tanzanian children showed that the SPf66 Colombian vaccine was safe, induced antibodies, and reduced the risk of developing clinical malaria by around 30%. This study, confirmed the potential of the vaccine to confer partial protection in areas of high as well as low intensity of transmission. Pfs25 is a leading candidate antigen for a transmission blocking vaccine. It is found in the ookinete stage of the parasite in the mosquito midgut. Gramme amounts of GMP-grade material have been produced and a vaccine based on the Pfs25 antigen formulated with alum should have gone into phase I and II clinical trials in the USA and Africa during 1995. Because the first malaria prototype vaccine to be tried out in people on a large scale has been the polymerized synthetic peptide developed by patarroye on the basis of the SPf66 antigen of P. faliciparum, the results are with much interest. It is still premature to predict the effectiveness of this vaccine globally, but its development will encourage further progress in a fields that has repeatedly been characterized by raised and then dashed drops. These various vaccines are based on the classical approach to vaccination, which is to raise host immunity against the parasite so as to reduce parasite densities or to sterilize an infection. A newer approach is development of antidisease vaccines which aim to alleviate morbidity by suppressing

  11. Malaria situation in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

    PubMed

    Hewitt, Sean; Delacollette, Charles; Chavez, Irwin

    2013-01-01

    The epidemiology of malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion is complex and rapidly evolving. Malaria control and elimination efforts face a daunting array of challenges including multidrug-resistant parasites. This review presents secondary data collected by the national malaria control programs in the six countries between 1998 and 2010 and examines trends over the last decade. This data has a number of limitations: it is derived exclusively from public sector health facilities; falciparum-specific and then pan-specific rapid diagnostic tests were introduced during the period under review; and, recently there has been a massive increase in case detection capability as a result of increased funding. It therefore requires cautious interpretation. A series of maps are presented showing trends in incidence, mortality and proportion of cases caused by Plasmodium falciparum over the last decade. A brief overview of institutional and implementation arrangements, historical background, demographics and key issues affecting malaria epidemiology is provided for each country. National malaria statistics for 2010 are presented and their robustness discussed in terms of the public sector's share of cases and other influencing factors such as inter-country variations in risk stratification, changes in diagnostic approach and immigration. Targets are presented for malaria control and where appropriate for elimination. Each country's artemisinin resistance status is described. The epidemiological trends presented reflect the improvement in the malaria situation, however the true malaria burden is as yet unknown. There is a need for continuing strengthening and updating of surveillance and response systems. PMID:24159830

  12. Potential of using remote sensing for forecasting malaria in Tripura, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Roytman, Leonid; Goldberg, Mitch; Kogan, Felix

    2010-08-01

    This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and malaria epidemic. The objective is to use NOAA environmental satellite data to produce weather seasonal forecasts as a proxy for predicting malaria epidemics in Tripura, India which has the one of the highest endemic of malaria cases in the country. An algorithm uses the Vegetation Health (VH) Indices (Vegetation Condition Index( VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI)) computed from Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data flown on NOAA afternoon poler orbiting satellite.. A good correlation was found between malaria cases and TCI two months earlier than the malaria transmission period. Principal components regression (PCR) method was used to develop a model to predict malaria as a function of the TCI. The simulated results were compared with observed malaria statistics showing that the error of the estimates of malaria is small. Remote sensing therefore is a valuable tool for estimating malaria well in advance thus preventive measures can be taken.

  13. A mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax malaria transmission: estimation of the impact of transmission-blocking immunity in an endemic area.

    PubMed Central

    De Zoysa, A. P.; Mendis, C.; Gamage-Mendis, A. C.; Weerasinghe, S.; Herath, P. R.; Mendis, K. N.

    1991-01-01

    We have developed a multi-state mathematical model to describe the transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria; the model accommodates variable transmission-blocking/enhancing immunity during the course of a blood infection, a short memory for boosting immunity, and relapses. Using the model, we simulated the incidence of human malaria, sporozoite rates in the vector population, and the level of transmission-blocking immunity for the infected population over a period of time. Field data from an epidemiological study conducted in Kataragama in the south of Sri Lanka were used to test the results obtained. The incidence of malaria during the study period was simulated satisfactorily. The impact of naturally-acquired transmission-blocking immunity on malaria transmission under different vectorial capacities was also simulated. The results show that at low vectorial capacities, e.g., just above the threshold for transmission, the effect of transmission-blocking immunity is very significant; however, the effect is lower at higher vectorial capacities. PMID:1786621

  14. Chronicle of malaria epidemics in Thailand, 1980-2000.

    PubMed

    Konchom, Supawadee; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Kaewkungwal, Jaranit; Chuprapawan, Sirichai; Thimasarn, Krongthong; Kidson, Chev; Yimsamran, Surapon; Rojanawatsirivet, Chaiporn

    2005-01-01

    The occurrence of malaria epidemics in Thailand was reviewed from the malaria surveillance report of the National Malaria Control Program. The literature review revealed that the four epidemic periods recorded during 1980-2000 almost always occurred in the provinces and districts located along international borders. Malaria epidemics are caused by various factors such as: extensive population movement, multi-drug resistance development, low immune status of the population, lack of knowledge and appropriate personal protection against mosquito biting, and the re-emergence of malaria transmission in low malarious areas. Such factors can lead to changes in the parasite ratio and appearance of malaria epidemics throughout the country. Evidence related to the burden of malaria epidemics was also reviewed to identify causal factors that will be helpful in future research.

  15. Automated Estimating System (AES), Standard Value Update Program, user`s manual

    SciTech Connect

    Schwartz, R.K.; Holder, D.A.

    1994-08-01

    This manual contains instructions for operating the Standard Value Update Program. This program is operated and controlled by selected individuals in the Estimating and Scheduling Engineering Department of the Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., Engineering Division. It is used to control and standardized input into the Automated Estimating System (AES) Estimating program, a person computer-based software package designed to aid in the creation, updating, and reporting of project cost estimates. The AES Estimating program is documented in a separate user`s manual.

  16. 75 FR 16120 - Notice of Issuance of Exposure Draft on Accrual Estimates for Grant Programs

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-31

    ... ADVISORY BOARD Notice of Issuance of Exposure Draft on Accrual Estimates for Grant Programs AGENCY: Federal... Exposure Draft of a new Federal Financial Accounting Technical Release entitled Accrual Estimates for Grant... reasonable estimates of accrual liabilities for grant programs. The Exposure Draft is available on the...

  17. Computational Study of Quinolone Derivatives to Improve their Therapeutic Index as Anti-malaria Agents: QSAR and QSTR

    PubMed Central

    Iman, Maryam; Davood, Asghar; Khamesipour, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Malaria is a parasitic disease caused by five different species of Plasmodium. More than 40% of the world’s population is at risk and malaria annual incidence is estimated to be more than two hundred million, malaria is one of the most important public health problems especially in children of the poorest parts of the world, annual mortality is about 1 million. The epidemiological status of the disease justifies to search for control measures, new therapeutic options and development of an effective vaccine. Chemotherapy options in malaria are limited, moreover, drug resistant rate is high. In spite of global efforts to develop an effective vaccine yet there is no vaccine available. In the current study, a series of quinolone derivatives were subjected to quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) and quantitative structure toxicity relationship (QSTR) analyses to identify the ideal physicochemical characteristics of potential anti-malaria activity and less cytotoxicity. Quinolone with desirable properties was built using HyperChem program, and conformational studies were performed through the semi-empirical method followed by the PM3 force field. Multi linear regression (MLR) was used as a chemo metric tool for quantitative structure activity relationship modeling and the developed models were shown to be statistically significant according to the validation parameters. The obtained QSAR model reveals that the descriptors PJI2, Mv, PCR, nBM, and VAR mainly affect the anti-malaria activity and descriptors MSD, MAXDP, and X1sol affect the cytotoxicity of the series of ligands. PMID:26330866

  18. Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development.

    PubMed

    Sampaio, Vanderson Souza; Siqueira, André Machado; Alecrim, Maria das Graças Costa; Mourão, Maria Paula Gomes; Marchesini, Paola Barbosa; Albuquerque, Bernardino Cláudio; Nascimento, Joabi; Figueira, Élder Augusto Guimarães; Alecrim, Wilson Duarte; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

    2015-01-01

    In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

  19. Challenges for malaria elimination in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ferreira, Marcelo U; Castro, Marcia C

    2016-01-01

    Brazil currently contributes 42 % of all malaria cases reported in the Latin America and the Caribbean, a region where major progress towards malaria elimination has been achieved in recent years. In 2014, malaria burden in Brazil (143,910 microscopically confirmed cases and 41 malaria-related deaths) has reached its lowest levels in 35 years, Plasmodium falciparum is highly focal, and the geographic boundary of transmission has considerably shrunk. Transmission in Brazil remains entrenched in the Amazon Basin, which accounts for 99.5 % of the country's malaria burden. This paper reviews major lessons learned from past and current malaria control policies in Brazil. A comprehensive discussion of the scientific and logistic challenges that may impact malaria elimination efforts in the country is presented in light of the launching of the Plan for Elimination of Malaria in Brazil in November 2015. Challenges for malaria elimination addressed include the high prevalence of symptomless and submicroscopic infections, emerging anti-malarial drug resistance in P. falciparum and Plasmodium vivax and the lack of safe anti-relapse drugs, the largely neglected burden of malaria in pregnancy, the need for better vector control strategies where Anopheles mosquitoes present a highly variable biting behaviour, human movement, the need for effective surveillance and tools to identify foci of infection in areas with low transmission, and the effects of environmental changes and climatic variability in transmission. Control actions launched in Brazil and results to come are likely to influence control programs in other countries in the Americas. PMID:27206924

  20. Impact of malaria morbidity on gross domestic product in Uganda

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The burden of malaria is a key challenge to both human and economic development in malaria endemic countries. The impact of malaria can be categorized from three dimensions, namely: health, social and economic. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of malaria morbidity on gross domestic product (GDP) of Uganda. Methods The impact of malaria morbidity on GDP of Uganda was estimated using double-log econometric model. The 1997-2003 time series macro-data used in the analysis were for 28 quarters, i.e. 7 years times 4 quarters per year. It was obtained from national and international secondary sources. Results The slope coefficient for Malaria Index (M) was -0.00767; which indicates that when malaria morbidity increases by one unit, while holding all other explanatory variables constant, per capita GDP decreases by US$0.00767 per year. In 2003 Uganda lost US$ 49,825,003 of GDP due to malaria morbidity. Dividing the total loss of US$49.8 million by a population of 25,827,000 yields a loss in GDP of US$1.93 per person in Uganda in 2003. Conclusion Malaria morbidity results in a substantive loss in GDP of Uganda. The high burden of malaria leads to decreased long-term economic growth, and works against poverty eradication efforts and socioeconomic development of the country. PMID:22439685

  1. Malaria and Travelers

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov File Formats Help: How do I view different file formats (PDF, DOC, PPT, MPEG) on this site? Adobe PDF file Microsoft PowerPoint file Microsoft Word file Microsoft Excel ...

  2. Malaria Treatment (United States)

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov File Formats Help: How do I view different file formats (PDF, DOC, PPT, MPEG) on this site? Adobe PDF file Microsoft PowerPoint file Microsoft Word file Microsoft Excel ...

  3. Malaria Vaccine: A Future Hope to Curtail the Global Malaria Burden

    PubMed Central

    Karunamoorthi, Kaliyaperumal

    2014-01-01

    It has been estimated that nearly half of the world's population is at the risk of contracting malaria with sub Saharan Africa being the most risky area. The existing frontline malaria control interventions are not only expensive but also become ineffective owing to the emergence of insecticide and drug resistance. It calls for an innovative approach in terms of potential and reliable vaccine as an additional tool. Over centuries, the public health experts have been actively engaged to formulate a safe, affordable and potential malaria vaccine and accordingly a notable achievement has also been attained. However, many challenges are required to be flagged immediately and effectively to devise an ideal prophylactic malaria vaccine. Therefore, the global community has to remain waiting quite a few more years to build a wannabe malaria-free world in the near future. PMID:24932383

  4. Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments.

    PubMed

    Ikemoto, Takaya

    2008-11-01

    If global warming progresses, many consider that malaria in presently malaria-endemic areas will become more serious, with increasing development rates of the vector mosquito and malaria parasites. However, the correlation coefficients between the monthly malaria cases and the monthly mean of daily maximum temperature were negative, showing that the number of malaria cases in tropical areas of Africa decreases during the season when temperature was higher than normal. Moreover, an analysis of temperature and development rate using a thermodynamic model showed that the estimated intrinsic optimum temperatures for the development of the malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, in the adult mosquito stage and that of the vector mosquito Anopheles gambiae s.s. were all approximately 23-24 degrees C. Here, the intrinsic optimum temperature is defined in the thermodynamic model as the temperature at which it is assumed that there are no or negligible adverse effects for development. Therefore, this study indicates that the development of malaria parasites in their mosquito hosts and the development of their vector mosquitoes are inhibited at temperatures higher than 23-24 degrees C. If global warming progresses further, the present center of malarial endemicity in sub-Saharan Africa will move to an area with an optimum temperature for both the vector and the parasite, migrating to avoid the hot environment.

  5. User's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.; Iliff, K. W.

    1980-01-01

    A user's manual for the FORTRAN IV computer program MMLE3 is described. It is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The theory and use of the program is described. The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program.

  6. ESTIMATING INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY COSTS FOR THE SITE PROGRAM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Among the objectives of the EPA`s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1) That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated. 2) That the program will attempt to identify ...

  7. Appendix F: FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  8. Appendix B: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and Infrastructure Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  9. Appendix J: Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  10. Appendix E: Wind Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  11. Appendix H: Industrial Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  12. Appendix D: Solar Energy Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  13. Appendix I: Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  14. Appendix G: Building Technologies Program inputs for FY 2008 benefits estimates

    SciTech Connect

    None, None

    2009-01-18

    Document summarizes the results of the benefits analysis of EERE’s programs, as described in the FY 2008 Budget Request. EERE estimates benefits for its overall portfolio and nine Research, Development, Demonstration, and Deployment (RD3) programs.

  15. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is the most important vector-borne tropical disease (Collins and Paskewitz, 1995) and there is no simple and universally applicable form of vector control. While new methods such as malaria vaccine or genetic manipulation of mosquitoes are being explored in the laboratories, the need for more field research on malaria transmission remains very strong. For the foreseeable future many malaria programs must focus on controlling the vector, the anopheline mosquito, often under the specter of shrinking budgets. Therefore information on which human populations are at the greatest risk is especially valuable when allocating scarce resources. The goal of the Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control Project is to demonstrate the feasibility of using Radarsat or other comparable satellite radar imaging systems to determine where and when human populations are at greatest risk for contracting malaria. The study area is northern Belize, a region with abundant wetlands and a potentially serious malaria problem. A key aspect of this study is the analysis of multi-temporal satellite imagery to track seasonal flooding of anopheline mosquito breeding sites. Radarsat images of the test site in Belize have been acquired one to three times a month over the last year, however,, to date only one processed image has been received from the Alaska SAR Facility for analysis. Therefore analysis at this stage is focussed on determining the radar backscatter characteristics of known anopheline breeding sites, with future work to be dedicated toward seasonal changes.

  16. Radar Monitoring of Wetlands for Malaria Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pope, Kevin O.

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is perhaps the most serious human disease problem. It inflicts millions worldwide and is on the rise in many countries where it was once under control. This rise is in part due to the high costs, both economic and environmental, of current control programs. The search for more cost-effective means to combat malaria has focussed attention on new technologies, one of which is remote sensing. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the effort to control a variety of diseases worldwide and malaria is perhaps one of the most promising. This study is part of the malaria control effort in the Central American country of Belize, which has experienced a resurgence of malaria in the last two decades. The proposed project is a feasibility study of the use of Radarsat (and other similar radar systems) to monitor seasonal changes in the breeding sites of the anopheline mosquito, which is responsible for malaria transmission. We propose that spatial and temporal changes in anopheline mosquito production can be predicted by sensing where and when their breeding sites are flooded. Timely knowledge of anopheline mosquito production is a key factor in control efforts. Such knowledge can be used by local control agencies to direct their limited resources to selected areas and time periods when the human population is at greatest risk. Radar is a key sensor in this application because frequent cloud cover during the peak periods of malaria transmission precludes the use of optical sensors.

  17. Ranking Malaria Risk Factors to Guide Malaria Control Efforts in African Highlands

    PubMed Central

    Protopopoff, Natacha; Van Bortel, Wim; Speybroeck, Niko; Van Geertruyden, Jean-Pierre; Baza, Dismas; D'Alessandro, Umberto; Coosemans, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Malaria is re-emerging in most of the African highlands exposing the non immune population to deadly epidemics. A better understanding of the factors impacting transmission in the highlands is crucial to improve well targeted malaria control strategies. Methods and Findings A conceptual model of potential malaria risk factors in the highlands was built based on the available literature. Furthermore, the relative importance of these factors on malaria can be estimated through “classification and regression trees”, an unexploited statistical method in the malaria field. This CART method was used to analyse the malaria risk factors in the Burundi highlands. The results showed that Anopheles density was the best predictor for high malaria prevalence. Then lower rainfall, no vector control, higher minimum temperature and houses near breeding sites were associated by order of importance to higher Anopheles density. Conclusions In Burundi highlands monitoring Anopheles densities when rainfall is low may be able to predict epidemics. The conceptual model combined with the CART analysis is a decision support tool that could provide an important contribution toward the prevention and control of malaria by identifying major risk factors. PMID:19946627

  18. Two Computer Programs for Equipment Cost Estimation and Economic Evaluation of Chemical Processes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuri, Carlos J.; Corripio, Armando B.

    1984-01-01

    Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment cost estimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

  19. Malaria acquired in Haiti - 2010.

    PubMed

    2010-03-01

    On January 12, 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck Haiti, which borders the Dominican Republic on the island of Hispaniola. The earthquake's epicenter was 10 miles west of the Haiti capital city of Port-au-Prince (estimated population: 2 million). According to the Haitian government, approximately 200,000 persons were killed, and 500,000 were left homeless. Malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum infection is endemic in Haiti, and the principal mosquito vector is Anopheles albimanus, which frequently bites outdoors. Thus, displaced persons living outdoors or in temporary shelters and thousands of emergency responders in Haiti are at substantial risk for malaria. During January 12-February 25, CDC received reports of 11 laboratory-confirmed cases of P. falciparum malaria acquired in Haiti. Patients included seven U.S. residents who were emergency responders, three Haitian residents, and one U.S. traveler. This report summarizes the 11 cases and provides chemoprophylactic and additional preventive recommendations to minimize the risk for acquiring malaria for persons traveling to Haiti.

  20. Malaria in South Asia: prevalence and control.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Ashwani; Chery, Laura; Biswas, Chinmoy; Dubhashi, Nagesh; Dutta, Prafulla; Dua, Virendra Kumar; Kacchap, Mridula; Kakati, Sanjeeb; Khandeparkar, Anar; Kour, Dalip; Mahajan, Satish N; Maji, Ardhendu; Majumder, Partha; Mohanta, Jagadish; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K; Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Roy, Krishnangshu; Shastri, Jayanthi; Valecha, Neena; Vikash, Rana; Wani, Reena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2012-03-01

    The "Malaria Evolution in South Asia" (MESA) program project is an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. This US-India collaborative program will study the origin of genetic diversity of malaria parasites and their selection on the Indian subcontinent. This knowledge should contribute to a better understanding of unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. In this first of two reviews, we highlight malaria prevalence in India. In particular, we draw attention to variations in distribution of different human-parasites and different vectors, variation in drug resistance traits, and multiple forms of clinical presentations. Uneven malaria severity in India is often attributed to large discrepancies in health care accessibility as well as human migrations within the country and across neighboring borders. Poor access to health care goes hand in hand with poor reporting from some of the same areas, combining to possibly distort disease prevalence and death from malaria in some parts of India. Corrections are underway in the form of increased resources for disease control, greater engagement of village-level health workers for early diagnosis and treatment, and possibly new public-private partnerships activities accompanying traditional national malaria control programs in the most severely affected areas. A second accompanying review raises the possibility that, beyond uneven health care, evolutionary pressures may alter malaria parasites in ways that contribute to severe disease in India, particularly in the NE corridor of India bordering Myanmar Narayanasamy et al., 2012.

  1. Malaria in South Asia: Prevalence and control

    PubMed Central

    Kumar, Ashwani; Chery, Laura; Biswas, Chinmoy; Dubhashi, Nagesh; Dutta, Prafulla; Dua, Virendra Kumar; Kacchap, Mridula; Kakati, Sanjeeb; Khandeparkar, Anar; Kour, Dalip; Mahajanj, Satish N.; Maji, Ardhendu; Majumder, Partha; Mohanta, Jagadish; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K.; Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Roy, Krishnangshu; Shastri, Jayanthi; Valecha, Neena; Vikash, Rana; Wani, Reena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K

    2013-01-01

    The “Malaria Evolution in South Asia” (MESA) program project is an International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institutes of Health. This US–India collaborative program will study the origin of genetic diversity of malaria parasites and their selection on the Indian subcontinent. This knowledge should contribute to a better understanding of unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections. In this first of two reviews, we highlight malaria prevalence in India. In particular, we draw attention to variations in distribution of different human-parasites and different vectors, variation in drug resistance traits, and multiple forms of clinical presentations. Uneven malaria severity in India is often attributed to large discrepancies in health care accessibility as well as human migrations within the country and across neighboring borders. Poor access to health care goes hand in hand with poor reporting from some of the same areas, combining to possibly distort disease prevalence and death from malaria in some parts of India. Corrections are underway in the form of increased resources for disease control, greater engagement of village-level health workers for early diagnosis and treatment, and possibly new public–private partnerships activities accompanying traditional national malaria control programs in the most severely affected areas. A second accompanying review raises the possibility that, beyond uneven health care, evolutionary pressures may alter malaria parasites in ways that contribute to severe disease in India, particularly in the NE corridor of India bordering Myanmar Narayanasamy et al., 2012. PMID:22248528

  2. Equity monitoring for social marketing: use of wealth quintiles and the concentration index for decision making in HIV prevention, family planning, and malaria programs

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The majority of social marketing programs are intended to reach the poor. It is therefore essential that social marketing organizations monitor the health equity of their programs and improve targeting when the poor are not being reached. Current measurement approaches are often insufficient for decision making because they fail to show a program's ability to reach the poor and demonstrate progress over time. Further, effective program equity metrics should be benchmarked against a national reference population and consider exposure, not just health outcomes, to measure direct results of implementation. This study compares two measures of health equity, concentration indices and wealth quintiles, using a defined reference population, and considers benefits of both measures together to inform programmatic decision making. Methods Three datasets from recent cross-sectional behavioral surveys on malaria, HIV, and family planning from Nepal and Burkina Faso were used to calculate concentration indices and wealth quintiles. Each sample was standardized to national wealth distributions based on recent Demographic and Health Surveys. Wealth quintiles were generated and concentration indices calculated for health outcomes and program exposure in each sample. Chi-square and t-tests were used to assess statistical significance of results. Results Reporting wealth quintiles showed that recipients of Population Services International (PSI) interventions were wealthier than national populations. Both measures indicated that desirable health outcomes were usually concentrated among wealthier populations. Positive and significant concentration indices in all three surveys indicated that wealth and program exposure were correlated; however this relationship was not necessarily linear. In analyzing the equity of modern contraceptive use stratified by exposure to family planning messages in Nepal, the outcome was equitable (concentration index = 0.006, p = 0.68) among the

  3. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Ángel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A.; Beier, John C.; Herrera, Socrates

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent’s contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1 to 1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty per cent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2 %) followed by P. falciparum (25.7 %) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA

  4. Malaria in selected non-Amazonian countries of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Guerra, Carlos; Céspedes, Nora; Giron, Sandra; Ahumada, Martha; Piñeros, Juan Gabriel; Padilla, Norma; Terrientes, Zilka; Rosas, Angel; Padilla, Julio Cesar; Escalante, Ananias A; Beier, John C; Herrera, Socrates

    2012-03-01

    Approximately 170 million inhabitants of the American continent live at risk of malaria transmission. Although the continent's contribution to the global malaria burden is small, at least 1-1.2 million malaria cases are reported annually. Sixty percent of the malaria cases occur in Brazil and the other 40% are distributed in 20 other countries of Central and South America. Plasmodium vivax is the predominant species (74.2%) followed by P. falciparum (25.7%) and P. malariae (0.1%), and no less than 10 Anopheles species have been identified as primary or secondary malaria vectors. Rapid deforestation and agricultural practices are directly related to increases in Anopheles species diversity and abundance, as well as in the number of malaria cases. Additionally, climate changes profoundly affect malaria transmission and are responsible for malaria epidemics in some regions of South America. Parasite drug resistance is increasing, but due to bio-geographic barriers there is extraordinary genetic differentiation of parasites with limited dispersion. Although the clinical spectrum ranges from uncomplicated to severe malaria cases, due to the generally low to middle transmission intensity, features such as severe anemia, cerebral malaria and other complications appear to be less frequent than in other endemic regions and asymptomatic infections are a common feature. Although the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) of different countries differ in their control activities these are all directed to reduce morbidity and mortality by using strategies like health promotion, vector control and impregnate bed nets among others. Recently, international initiatives such as the Malaria Control Program in Andean-country Border Regions (PAMAFRO) (implemented by the Andean Organism for Health (ORAS) and sponsored by The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM)) and The Amazon Network for the Surveillance of Antimalarial Drug Resistance (RAVREDA) (sponsored by

  5. Current status of malaria in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Lim, E S

    1992-09-01

    The Malaria Eradication Program was started in 1967 in Peninsular Malaysia. Since then and up to 1980, there was a reduction in the number of reported malaria cases from 160,385 in 1966 to 9,110 cases for Peninsular Malaysia. Although the concept of eradication has changed to one of control in the 1980, the anti-malaria activities have remained the same. However, additional supplementary activities such as the use of impregnated bednets, and the Primary Health Care approach, have been introduced in malarious and malaria-prone areas. Focal spraying activity is instituted in localities with outbreaks in both malaria-prone and non-malarious areas. Passive case detection has been maintained in all operational areas. In 1990, 50,500 cases of malaria were reported of which 69.7% (35,190) were from Sabah, 27.8% (14,066) from Peninsular Malaysia and 2.5% (1,244) from Sarawak. Until June 1991 a total of 18,306 cases were reported for the country. Plasmodium falciparum continues to be the predominant species, contributing to 69.6% of the parasites involved. The case fatality rate for 1990 was 0.09%. There were 43 deaths all of which were attributed to cerebral malaria. The problems faced in the prevention and control of malaria include problems associated with the opening of land for agriculture, mobility of the aborigines of Peninsular Malaysia (Orang Asli) and inaccessibility of malaria problem areas. There is need to ensure prompt investigation and complete treatment of cases especially in malarious areas. The promotion of community participation in control activities should be intensified. Primary Health Care should be continued and intensified in the malarious areas.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  6. Malaria-related anaemia: a Latin American perspective

    PubMed Central

    Quintero, Juan Pablo; Siqueira, André Machado; Tobón, Alberto; Blair, Silvia; Moreno, Alberto; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Valencia, Sócrates Herrera

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is the most important parasitic disease worldwide, responsible for an estimated 225 million clinical cases each year. It mainly affects children, pregnant women and non-immune adults who frequently die victims of cerebral manifestations and anaemia. Although the contribution of the American continent to the global malaria burden is only around 1.2 million clinical cases annually, there are 170 million inhabitants living at risk of malaria transmission in this region. On the African continent, where Plasmodium falciparum is the most prevalent human malaria parasite, anaemia is responsible for about half of the malaria-related deaths. Conversely, in Latin America (LA), malaria-related anaemia appears to be uncommon, though there is a limited knowledge about its real prevalence. This may be partially explained by several factors, including that the overall malaria burden in LA is significantly lower than that of Africa, that Plasmodium vivax, the predominant Plasmodium species in the region, appears to display a different clinical spectrus and most likely because better health services in LA prevent the development of severe malaria cases. With the aim of contributing to the understanding of the real importance of malaria-related anaemia in LA, we discuss here a revision of the available literature on the subject and the usefulness of experimental animal models, including New World monkeys, particularly for the study of the mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of malaria. PMID:21881762

  7. Evaluation Methodologies for Estimating the Likelihood of Program Implementation Failure

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Durand, Roger; Decker, Phillip J.; Kirkman, Dorothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Despite our best efforts as evaluators, program implementation failures abound. A wide variety of valuable methodologies have been adopted to explain and evaluate the "why" of these failures. Yet, typically these methodologies have been employed concurrently (e.g., project monitoring) or to the post-hoc assessment of program activities.…

  8. A BASIC Microcomputer Program for Estimating Test Reliability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cobern, William W.

    This computer program, written in BASIC, performs three different calculations of test reliability: (1) the Kuder-Richardson method; (2); the "common split-half" method; and (3) the Rulon-Guttman split-half method. The program reads sequential access data files for microcomputers that have been set up by statistical packages such as STATPAC. The…

  9. Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Buckee, Caroline; Marti, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps. PMID:26086192

  10. The biological control of the malaria vector.

    PubMed

    Kamareddine, Layla

    2012-09-01

    The call for malaria control, over the last century, marked a new epoch in the history of this disease. Many control strategies targeting either the Plasmodium parasite or the Anopheles vector were shown to be effective. Yet, the emergence of drug resistant parasites and insecticide resistant mosquito strains, along with numerous health, environmental, and ecological side effects of many chemical agents, highlighted the need to develop alternative tools that either complement or substitute conventional malaria control approaches. The use of biological means is considered a fundamental part of the recently launched malaria eradication program and has so far shown promising results, although this approach is still in its infancy. This review presents an overview of the most promising biological control tools for malaria eradication, namely fungi, bacteria, larvivorous fish, parasites, viruses and nematodes. PMID:23105979

  11. From "forest malaria" to "bromeliad malaria": a case-study of scientific controversy and malaria control.

    PubMed

    Gadelha, P

    1994-08-01

    The article analyses the evolution of knowledge and rationale of control of a special case of malaria transmission based on Bromelia-Kerteszia complex. Since bromeliaceae function as a 'host of the carrier' and were previously associated with natural forests, the elucidation of bromeliad malaria historically elicited controversies concerning the imputation of Kertesziae as transmitters as well as over control strategies directed to bromelia eradication (manual removal, herbicides and deforestation), use of insecticides and chemoprophylaxis. Established authority, disciplinary traditions, conceptual premises and contemporary criteria for validating knowledge in the field partly explain the long time gap since Adolpho Lutz announced at the beginning of the century the existence of a new mosquito and breeding site as responsible for a 'forest malaria' epidemic occurring at a high altitude. The article brings attention to how economic, political and institutional determinants played an important role in redefining studies that led both in Trinidad and Brazil to the recognition of the importance of kerteszia transmission, including urban areas, and establishing new approaches to its study, most relevant of all the concurrence of broad ecological research. The article then describes the Brazilian campaign strategies which showed significant short-term results but had to wait four decades to achieve the goal of eradication due to the peculiar characteristics of this pathogenic complex. Finally, it brings attention to the importance of encompassing social values and discourses, in this case, environmental preservation, to understanding historical trends of malaria control programs.

  12. Epidemiology and Risk Analysis of Malaria among Pregnant Women

    PubMed Central

    Dhiman, S; Yadav, K; Goswami, D; Das, NG; Baruah, I; Singh, L

    2012-01-01

    Malaria remains a complex problem during the pregnancy, which threatens > 35 millions pregnant women every year. Malaria pathogenesis in pregnancy results in accumulation of infected RBCs in the intervillous spaces causing severe alterations leading to the reduced materno-foetal exchanges. In this article we have revisited the current evidences of clinical implications and overall burden of malaria in pregnancy. Many adverse aftermaths including, low birth weight, intrauterine growth retardation, preterm delivery, stillbirth and anemia were found associated with malaria in pregnant women. Despite of worldwide comprehensive control programmes for malaria in pregnancy, the disease control has been a daunting task everywhere. Socio cultural, economical, lack of awareness and various logistic problems compound the disease in developing countries. Thorough evidence based information and estimates, education and awareness and strengthening of prevention programmes are needed urgently to achieve success in malaria control in pregnancy. PMID:23113116

  13. FY 2000 Buildings Energy Savings Estimates under Uncertainty: Developing Approaches for Incorporating Risk into Buildings Program Energy Efficiency Estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, Dave M.

    2002-11-18

    This report is one of two that re-examines the forecasted impact of individual programs currently within the Buildings Technology Program (BT) and the Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program (WIP) that appeared in the FY2000 Presidential Budget request. This report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to be captured in the program benefits analysis. Note that the FY2000 budget request was originally analyzed under the former Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (BTS), where BT and WIP were previously combined. Throughout the document, reference will be made to the predecessor of the BT and WIP programs, BTS, as FY2000 reflected that organization. A companion report outlines the effects of re-estimating the FY 2000 budget request based on overlaying program data from subsequent years, essentially revised out-year forecasts. That report shows that year-to-year long-term projections of primary energy savings can vary widely as models improve and programs change. Those point estimates are not influenced by uncertainty or risk. This report develops potential methods for allowing inherent risk to affect the benefits analysis via Monte Carlo simulation.

  14. Epidemiology of malaria in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Rahman, K M

    1982-01-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem in Malaysia, particularly in peninsular Malaysia and the state of Sabah. An eradication program started in the states of Sabah and Sarawak in 1961 initially was remarkably successful. A similar but staged program was started in peninsular Malaysia in 1967 and was also quite successful. However, a marked upsurge in incidence in Sabah in 1975-1978 showed that malaria is still a major hazard. The disease leads to great economic losses in terms of the productivity of the labor force and the learning capacity of schoolchildren. The topography, the climate, and the migrations of the people due to increased economic activity are similar in peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, and Sarawak. However, the epidemiologic picture differs strikingly from area to area in terms of species of vectors, distribution of parasitic species, and resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to chloroquine. Likewise, the problems faced by the eradication or control programs in the three regions are dissimilar. Because solutions to only some of these problems are possible, the eradication of malaria in Malaysia is not likely in the near future. However, the situation offers an excellent opportunity for further studies of antimalaria measures. PMID:6755616

  15. Malaria prevention and control in Bhutan: successes and challenges.

    PubMed

    Tobgay, Tashi; Torres, Cristina E; Na-Bangchang, Kesara

    2011-03-01

    This paper highlights on the current malaria situations in Bhutan and its challenges for future prevention and control strategies. In Bhutan, malaria affects more than half of the entire population, mostly residing in the southern districts bordering with Indian states of Assam and West Bengal. Over the past ten years, due to concerted efforts, the morbidity and mortality due to malaria has significantly declined. These preventive and control measures focused on the mass distribution of long lasting insecticidal treated nets, focal indoor residual spray and use of artemisinin-based combination therapies. However, considerable challenge lies ahead and research is needed to generate local evidence for sustainable elimination of malaria from Bhutan. The article should be of value and interest to planners, malaria programs and for future researchers on malaria in Bhutan.

  16. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  17. Biodiversity Can Help Prevent Malaria Outbreaks in Tropical Forests

    PubMed Central

    Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; de Prado, Paulo Inácio Knegt Lopez; Kraenkel, Roberto André; Coutinho, Renato Mendes; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

    2013-01-01

    Background Plasmodium vivax is a widely distributed, neglected parasite that can cause malaria and death in tropical areas. It is associated with an estimated 80–300 million cases of malaria worldwide. Brazilian tropical rain forests encompass host- and vector-rich communities, in which two hypothetical mechanisms could play a role in the dynamics of malaria transmission. The first mechanism is the dilution effect caused by presence of wild warm-blooded animals, which can act as dead-end hosts to Plasmodium parasites. The second is diffuse mosquito vector competition, in which vector and non-vector mosquito species compete for blood feeding upon a defensive host. Considering that the World Health Organization Malaria Eradication Research Agenda calls for novel strategies to eliminate malaria transmission locally, we used mathematical modeling to assess those two mechanisms in a pristine tropical rain forest, where the primary vector is present but malaria is absent. Methodology/Principal Findings The Ross–Macdonald model and a biodiversity-oriented model were parameterized using newly collected data and data from the literature. The basic reproduction number () estimated employing Ross–Macdonald model indicated that malaria cases occur in the study location. However, no malaria cases have been reported since 1980. In contrast, the biodiversity-oriented model corroborated the absence of malaria transmission. In addition, the diffuse competition mechanism was negatively correlated with the risk of malaria transmission, which suggests a protective effect provided by the forest ecosystem. There is a non-linear, unimodal correlation between the mechanism of dead-end transmission of parasites and the risk of malaria transmission, suggesting a protective effect only under certain circumstances (e.g., a high abundance of wild warm-blooded animals). Conclusions/Significance To achieve biological conservation and to eliminate Plasmodium parasites in human populations

  18. Sri Lanka Malaria Maps

    PubMed Central

    Briët, Olivier JT; Gunawardena, Dissanayake M; van der Hoek, Wim; Amerasinghe, Felix P

    2003-01-01

    Background Despite a relatively good national case reporting system in Sri Lanka, detailed maps of malaria distribution have not been publicly available. Methods In this study, monthly records over the period 1995 – 2000 of microscopically confirmed malaria parasite positive blood film readings, at sub-district spatial resolution, were used to produce maps of malaria distribution across the island. Also, annual malaria trends at district resolution were displayed for the period 1995 – 2002. Results The maps show that Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence has a marked variation in distribution over the island. The incidence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria follows a similar spatial pattern but is generally much lower than that of P. vivax. In the north, malaria shows one seasonal peak in the beginning of the year, whereas towards the south a second peak around June is more pronounced. Conclusion This paper provides the first publicly available maps of both P. vivax and P. falciparum malaria incidence distribution on the island of Sri Lanka at sub-district resolution, which may be useful to health professionals, travellers and travel medicine professionals in their assessment of malaria risk in Sri Lanka. As incidence of malaria changes over time, regular updates of these maps are necessary. PMID:12914667

  19. Malaria in the Greater Mekong Subregion: Heterogeneity and Complexity

    PubMed Central

    Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun; Sattabongkot, Jetsumon; Cao, Yaming; Chen, Bin; Chen, Xiaoguang; Fan, Qi; Fang, Qiang; Jongwutiwes, Somchai; Parker, Daniel; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Kyaw, Myat Phone; Su, Xin-zhuan; Yang, Henglin; Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Baomin; Xu, Jianwei; Zheng, Bin; Zhong, Daibin; Zhou, Guofa

    2011-01-01

    The Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), comprised of six countries including Cambodia, China's Yunnan Province, Lao PDR, Myanmar (Burma), Thailand and Vietnam, is one of the most threatening foci of malaria. Since the initiation of the WHO's Mekong Malaria Program a decade ago, malaria situation in the GMS has greatly improved, reflected in the continuous decline in annual malaria incidence and deaths. However, as many nations are moving towards malaria elimination, the GMS nations still face great challenges. Malaria epidemiology in this region exhibits enormous geographical heterogeneity with Myanmar and Cambodia remaining high-burden countries. Within each country, malaria distribution is also patchy, exemplified by ‘border malaria’ and ‘forest malaria’ with high transmission occurring along international borders and in forests or forest fringes, respectively. ‘Border malaria’ is extremely difficult to monitor, and frequent malaria introductions by migratory human populations constitute a major threat to neighboring, malaria-eliminating countries. Therefore, coordination between neighboring countries is essential for malaria elimination from the entire region. In addition to these operational difficulties, malaria control in the GMS also encounters several technological challenges. Contemporary malaria control measures rely heavily on effective chemotherapy and insecticide control of vector mosquitoes. However, the spread of multidrug resistance and potential emergence of artemisinin resistance in Plasmodium falciparum make resistance management a high priority in the GMS. This situation is further worsened by the circulation of counterfeit and substandard artemisinin-related drugs. In most endemic areas of the GMS, P. falciparum and P. vivax coexist, and in recent malaria control history, P. vivax has demonstrated remarkable resilience to control measures. Deployment of the only registered drug (primaquine) for the radical cure of vivax malaria is

  20. Malaria Control and Elimination,1 Venezuela, 1800s–1970s

    PubMed Central

    Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-01-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920, malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world’s interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication. Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization. We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  1. Malaria control and elimination, Venezuela, 1800s –1970s.

    PubMed

    Griffing, Sean M; Villegas, Leopoldo; Udhayakumar, Venkatachalam

    2014-10-01

    Venezuela had the highest number of human malaria cases in Latin American before 1936. During 1891–1920,malaria was endemic to >600,000 km2 of this country; malaria death rates led to major population decreases during 1891–1920. No pathogen, including the influenza virus that caused the 1918 pandemic, caused more deaths than malaria during 1905–1945. Early reports of malaria eradication in Venezuela helped spark the world's interest in global eradication. We describe early approaches to malaria epidemiology in Venezuela and how this country developed an efficient control program and an approach to eradication.Arnoldo Gabaldón was a key policy maker during this development process. He directed malaria control in Venezuela from the late 1930s to the end of the 1970s and contributed to malaria program planning of the World Health Organization.We discuss how his efforts helped reduce the incidence of malaria in Venezuela and how his approach diverged from World Health Organization guidelines.

  2. Standard practice: Estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated DSM programs

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, L.J.; Brown, M.A.

    1994-12-01

    The purpose of this document is to describe and illustrate a methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated demand-side management (DSM) programs, extending California {open_quotes}standard practice{close_quotes} to address the special evaluation challenges arising from these programs. A coordinated DSM program is one that is co-administered by a state or local government agency and a gas or electric utility. Although the primary subject of this document is coordinated low-income programs, the principles are easily extended to estimating the cost-effectiveness of all coordinated programs.

  3. SEISRISK II; a computer program for seismic hazard estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bender, Bernice; Perkins, D.M.

    1982-01-01

    The computer program SEISRISK II calculates probabilistic ground motion values for use in seismic hazard mapping. SEISRISK II employs a model that allows earthquakes to occur as points within source zones and as finite-length ruptures along faults. It assumes that earthquake occurrences have a Poisson distribution, that occurrence rates remain constant during the time period considered, that ground motion resulting from an earthquake is a known function of magnitude and distance, that seismically homogeneous source zones are defined, that fault locations are known, that fault rupture lengths depend on magnitude, and that earthquake rates as a function of magnitude are specified for each source. SEISRISK II calculates for each site on a grid of sites the level of ground motion that has a specified probability of being exceeded during a given time period. The program was designed to process a large (essentially unlimited) number of sites and sources efficiently and has been used to produce regional and national maps of seismic hazard.}t is a substantial revision of an earlier program SEISRISK I, which has never been documented. SEISRISK II runs considerably [aster and gives more accurate results than the earlier program and in addition includes rupture length and acceleration variability which were not contained in the original version. We describe the model and how it is implemented in the computer program and provide a flowchart and listing of the code.

  4. 78 FR 255 - Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-03

    ... Census Bureau published a final rule on January 4, 2010, in the Federal Register (75 FR 44) to announce... of Proposed Rulemaking and Request for Comments in the Federal Register (77 FR 47783) for its program... read as follows: Authority: 13 U.S.C. 4 and 181. 0 2. Lift the stay on part 90 published at 75 FR...

  5. Preventing the Reintroduction of Malaria in Mauritius: A Programmatic and Financial Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Tatarsky, Allison; Aboobakar, Shahina; Cohen, Justin M.; Gopee, Neerunjun; Bheecarry, Ambicadutt; Moonasar, Devanand; Phillips, Allison A.; Kahn, James G.; Moonen, Bruno; Smith, David L.; Sabot, Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Sustaining elimination of malaria in areas with high receptivity and vulnerability will require effective strategies to prevent reestablishment of local transmission, yet there is a dearth of evidence about this phase. Mauritius offers a uniquely informative history, with elimination of local transmission in 1969, re-emergence in 1975, and second elimination in 1998. Towards this end, Mauritius's elimination and prevention of reintroduction (POR) programs were analyzed via a comprehensive review of literature and government documents, supplemented by program observation and interviews with policy makers and program personnel. The impact of the country's most costly intervention, a passenger screening program, was assessed quantitatively using simulation modeling. On average, Mauritius spent $4.43 per capita per year (pcpy) during its second elimination campaign from 1982 to 1988. The country currently spends $2.06 pcpy on its POR program that includes robust surveillance, routine vector control, and prompt and effective treatment and response. Thirty-five percent of POR costs are for a passenger screening program. Modeling suggests that the estimated 14% of imported malaria infections identified by this program reduces the annual risk of indigenous transmission by approximately 2%. Of cases missed by the initial passenger screening program, 49% were estimated to be identified by passive or reactive case detection, leaving an estimated 3.1 unidentified imported infections per 100,000 inhabitants per year. The Mauritius experience indicates that ongoing intervention, strong leadership, and substantial predictable funding are critical to consistently prevent the reestablishment of malaria. Sustained vigilance is critical considering Mauritius's enabling conditions. Although the cost of POR is below that of elimination, annual per capita spending remains at levels that are likely infeasible for countries with lower overall health spending. Countries currently embarking

  6. Malaria drives T cells to exhaustion

    PubMed Central

    Wykes, Michelle N.; Horne-Debets, Joshua M.; Leow, Chiuan-Yee; Karunarathne, Deshapriya S.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is a significant global burden but after >30 years of effort there is no vaccine on the market. While the complex life cycle of the parasite presents several challenges, many years of research have also identified several mechanisms of immune evasion by Plasmodium spp. Recent research on malaria, has investigated the programmed cell death-1 (PD-1) pathway which mediates exhaustion of T cells, characterized by poor effector functions and recall responses and in some cases loss of the cells by apoptosis. Such studies have shown exhaustion of CD4+ T cells and an unappreciated role for CD8+ T cells in promoting sterile immunity against blood stage malaria. This is because PD-1 mediates up to a 95% reduction in numbers and functional capacity of parasite-specific CD8+ T cells, thus masking their role in protection. The role of T cell exhaustion during malaria provides an explanation for the absence of sterile immunity following the clearance of acute disease which will be relevant to future malaria-vaccine design and suggests the need for novel therapeutic solutions. This review will thus examine the role of PD-1-mediated T cell exhaustion in preventing lasting immunity against malaria. PMID:24904561

  7. Programmer's manual for MMLE3, a general FORTRAN program for maximum likelihood parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.

    1981-01-01

    The MMLE3 is a maximum likelihood parameter estimation program capable of handling general bilinear dynamic equations of arbitrary order with measurement noise and/or state noise (process noise). The basic MMLE3 program is quite general and, therefore, applicable to a wide variety of problems. The basic program can interact with a set of user written problem specific routines to simplify the use of the program on specific systems. A set of user routines for the aircraft stability and control derivative estimation problem is provided with the program. The implementation of the program on specific computer systems is discussed. The structure of the program is diagrammed, and the function and operation of individual routines is described. Complete listings and reference maps of the routines are included on microfiche as a supplement. Four test cases are discussed; listings of the input cards and program output for the test cases are included on microfiche as a supplement.

  8. Malaria ecotypes and stratification.

    PubMed

    Schapira, Allan; Boutsika, Konstantina

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the variability of malaria, control programmes need to stratify their malaria problem into a number of smaller units. Such stratification may be based on the epidemiology of malaria or on its determinants such as ecology. An ecotype classification was developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) around 1990, and it is time to assess its usefulness for current malaria control as well as for malaria modelling on the basis of published research. Journal and grey literature was searched for articles on malaria or Anopheles combined with ecology or stratification. It was found that all malaria in the world today could be assigned to one or more of the following ecotypes: savanna, plains and valleys; forest and forest fringe; foothill; mountain fringe and northern and southern fringes; desert fringe; coastal and urban. However, some areas are in transitional or mixed zones; furthermore, the implications of any ecotype depend on the biogeographical region, sometimes subregion, and finally, the knowledge on physiography needs to be supplemented by local information on natural, anthropic and health system processes including malaria control. Ecotyping can therefore not be seen as a shortcut to determine control interventions, but rather as a framework to supplement available epidemiological and entomological data so as to assess malaria situations at the local level, think through the particular risks and opportunities and reinforce intersectoral action. With these caveats, it does however emerge that several ecotypic distinctions are well defined and have relatively constant implications for control within certain biogeographic regions. Forest environments in the Indo-malay and the Neotropics are, with a few exceptions, associated with much higher malaria risk than in adjacent areas; the vectors are difficult to control, and the anthropic factors also often converge to impose constraints. Urban malaria in Africa is associated with lower risk than savanna

  9. GEODYN system description, volume 1. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chin, M. M.; Goad, C. C.; Martin, T. V.

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for the estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters is presented. The areas in which the program is operational are defined. The specific uses of the program are given as: (1) determination of definitive orbits, (2) tracking instrument calibration, (3) satellite operational predictions, and (4) geodetic parameter estimation. The relationship between the various elements in the solution of the orbit and geodetic parameter estimation problem is analyzed. The solution of the problems corresponds to the orbit generation mode in the first case and to the data reduction mode in the second case.

  10. Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) IV: Epidemiology of urban malaria in Cotonou (Benin)

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shr-Jie; Lengeler, Christian; Smith, Thomas A; Vounatsou, Penelope; Akogbeto, Martin; Tanner, Marcel

    2006-01-01

    Background An estimated 40 % of the population in Benin lives in urban areas. The purpose of the study was to estimate malaria endemicity and the fraction of malaria-attributable fevers in health facilities in Cotonou. Methods A health care system evaluation and a series of school parasitaemia surveys and health facility-based surveys were carried out during the dry season in of 2003, applying standard Rapid Urban Malaria Appraisal (RUMA) methodology. This study was part of a multi-site assessment supported by the Roll Back Malaria Partnership. Results The field work was carried out in February-March 2003. In 2002 and out of 289,342 consultations in the public health facilities of Cotonou there were 100,257 reported simple malaria cases (34.6%) and 12,195 complicated malaria cases (4.2%). In the school parasitaemia surveys, a malaria infection was found in 5.2 % of all samples. The prevalence rates of parasitaemia in the centre, intermediate and periphery zones were 2.6%, 9.0% and 2.5%, respectively. In the health facility surveys the malaria infection rates in presenting fever cases were 0% (under one year old), 6.8% (one to five years old), 0% (> five to 15 years old) and 0.9% (over 15 years old), while these rates in the control group were 1.4%, 2.8%, 1.3% and 2.0%. The malaria-attributable fractions among presenting fever cases were 0.04 in the one to five years old and zero in the three other age groups. Hence, malaria played only a small role in fever episodes at the end of the dry season. In total, 69.2% of patients used a mosquito net the night before the survey and 35.1% used an insecticide-treated net, which was shown to be protective for an infection (OR = 0.23, 95% CI 0.07–0.78). Travelling to a rural area (5.8% of all respondents) did not increase the infection risk. Conclusion The homogenously low malaria prevalence might be associated with urban transformation and/or a high bednet usage. Over-diagnosis of malaria and over-treatment with

  11. Development of vaccines to prevent malaria in pregnant women: WHO MALVAC meeting report.

    PubMed

    Menéndez, Clara; Moorthy, Vasee S; Reed, Zarifah; Bardají, Azucena; Alonso, Pedro; Brown, Graham V

    2011-09-01

    The major public health consequences of malaria in pregnancy have long been acknowledged. However, further information is still required for development and implementation of a malaria vaccine specifically directed to prevent malaria in pregnant women and improve maternal, fetal and infant outcomes. The WHO Malaria Vaccine Advisory Committee (MALVAC) provides guidance to the WHO on strategic priorities and research needs for development of vaccines to prevent malaria. Here we summarize the discussions and conclusions of a MALVAC scientific forum meeting on considerations in the development of vaccines to prevent malaria in pregnant women. This report includes brief summaries of what is known, and major knowledge gaps in disease burden estimation, pathogenesis and immunity, and the challenges with current preventive strategies for malaria in pregnancy. We conclude with the formulation of a conceptual framework for research and development for vaccines to prevent malaria in pregnant women.

  12. 75 FR 44 - Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates and Income Estimates Challenge Programs

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-04

    ... for a new Part 90 (44 FR 20646). These regulations were needed to standardize and codify procedures... proposed rule in the Federal Register (74 FR 51526) requesting comments on the proposed temporary... Bureau of the Census 15 CFR Part 90 RIN 0607-AA49 Temporary Suspension of the Population Estimates...

  13. Social Implications of Malaria and Their Relationships with Poverty

    PubMed Central

    Ricci, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    In poor countries, tragically, people die unnecessarily. Having changed our understanding about issues related to poverty, even in the fight against malaria we must keep in mind a number of issues other than simple lack of economic resources. In this article we tried to discuss the various aspects that make malaria a disease closely related to poverty and the effects of malaria on the same poverty of patients who are affected. If you want the program to "Rool Back Malaria" to succeed, you must program interventions that improve the living conditions of populations in endemic area, individually and as communities. As has become clear that the discovery of an effective vaccine will not eradicate the disease, remains a fundamental understanding of mechanisms related to poverty that cause Malaria remains one of the major killers in the world, to help communities affected and individuals to prevent, cure properly and not being afraid of this ancient disease. PMID:22973492

  14. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  15. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-01-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity. PMID:26868185

  16. Predicting malaria vector distribution under climate change scenarios in China: Challenges for malaria elimination

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, Zhoupeng; Wang, Duoquan; Ma, Aimin; Hwang, Jimee; Bennett, Adam; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Fan, Junfu; Zhang, Wenjie; Yang, Dian; Feng, Xinyu; Xia, Zhigui; Zhou, Xiao-Nong; Wang, Jinfeng

    2016-02-01

    Projecting the distribution of malaria vectors under climate change is essential for planning integrated vector control activities for sustaining elimination and preventing reintroduction of malaria. In China, however, little knowledge exists on the possible effects of climate change on malaria vectors. Here we assess the potential impact of climate change on four dominant malaria vectors (An. dirus, An. minimus, An. lesteri and An. sinensis) using species distribution models for two future decades: the 2030 s and the 2050 s. Simulation-based estimates suggest that the environmentally suitable area (ESA) for An. dirus and An. minimus would increase by an average of 49% and 16%, respectively, under all three scenarios for the 2030 s, but decrease by 11% and 16%, respectively in the 2050 s. By contrast, an increase of 36% and 11%, respectively, in ESA of An. lesteri and An. sinensis, was estimated under medium stabilizing (RCP4.5) and very heavy (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. in the 2050 s. In total, we predict a substantial net increase in the population exposed to the four dominant malaria vectors in the decades of the 2030 s and 2050 s, considering land use changes and urbanization simultaneously. Strategies to achieve and sustain malaria elimination in China will need to account for these potential changes in vector distributions and receptivity.

  17. Joko Tingkir program for estimating tsunami potential rapidly

    SciTech Connect

    Madlazim, Hariyono, E.

    2014-09-25

    The purpose of the study was to estimate P-wave rupture durations (T{sub dur}), dominant periods (T{sub d}) and exceeds duration (T{sub 50Ex}) simultaneously for local events, shallow earthquakes which occurred off the coast of Indonesia. Although the all earthquakes had parameters of magnitude more than 6,3 and depth less than 70 km, part of the earthquakes generated a tsunami while the other events (Mw=7.8) did not. Analysis using Joko Tingkir of the above stated parameters helped understand the tsunami generation of these earthquakes. Measurements from vertical component broadband P-wave quake velocity records and determination of the above stated parameters can provide a direct procedure for assessing rapidly the potential for tsunami generation. The results of the present study and the analysis of the seismic parameters helped explain why the events generated a tsunami, while the others did not.

  18. The role of submicroscopic malaria in malaria transmission: what is the evidence?

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Jessica T.; Saunders, David L.; Meshnick, Steven R.

    2014-01-01

    Achieving malaria elimination requires targeting the human reservoir of infection, including those with asymptomatic infection. Smear-positive asymptomatic infections detectable by microscopy are an important reservoir because they often persist for months and harbor gametocytes, the parasite stage infectious to mosquitoes. However, many asymptomatic infections are submicroscopic and can only be detected by molecular methods. While there is some evidence that persons with submicroscopic malaria can infect mosquitoes, transmission is much less likely to occur at submicroscopic gametocyte levels. As malaria elimination programs pursue mass screening and treatment of asymptomatic individuals, further research should strive to define the degree to which submicroscopic malaria contributes to the infectious reservoir, and in turn, what diagnostic detection threshold is needed to effectively interrupt transmission. PMID:24642035

  19. The Counterfactual Self-Estimation of Program Participants: Impact Assessment without Control Groups or Pretests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mueller, Christoph Emanuel; Gaus, Hansjoerg; Rech, Joerg

    2014-01-01

    This article proposes an innovative approach to estimating the counterfactual without the necessity of generating information from either a control group or a before-measure. Building on the idea that program participants are capable of estimating the hypothetical state they would be in had they not participated, the basics of the Roy-Rubin model…

  20. An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Quasi-Experimental Net Impact Estimates of CETA Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickinson, Katherine P.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Net impact estimates of Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) programs vary widely and can be explained by the different evaluation methodologies used. Estimates are sensitive to the inclusion of recently unemployed persons in the comparison sample and assumptions about the time of decision to enroll in CETA. (GDC)

  1. An Approach to Estimating Net Earnings Impact of Federally Subsidized Employment and Training Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finifter, David H.

    1987-01-01

    Estimates are presented for net earnings impact of the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act programs. Net impact was linked to the human capital model and estimated for numerous subgroups. The matching procedure and the use of quasiexperimental versus experimental design are also discussed. (Author/GDC)

  2. [Postmortem diagnosis of tropical malaria].

    PubMed

    Albert, S; Schröter, A; Bratzke, H; Brade, V

    1995-01-01

    Thirteen days after returning from a four week holiday in Kenya a 35-year-old man consulted his doctor complaining of feeling unwell. The doctor diagnosed influenza and gave him a sickness certificate for three days. Because the patient did not reappear at his workplace a search was made and he was found dead in his flat seven days after seeing his doctor. A medicolegal autopsy was performed two days after the estimated time of death. There was marked swelling of liver and spleen together with jaundice and "dirty grey" colouration of the viscera. Samples of heart blood and spleen puncture material were taken. Giemsa stained preparations (ordinary and thick blood smears) revealed numerous objects 1.2 to 1.5 microns in size with indistinct reddish blue staining, some of them arranged in rosettes reminiscent of schizonts. A few of them contained pigment. In material from the spleen there were masses of blackish-brown pigment. The malaria immunofluorescence test performed on serum gave a weakly positive titre of 1:40. The findings were considered enough to support a diagnosis of fulminant falciparum malaria, and this was confirmed by histological changes in various organs, notably the typical capillary blockages in the brain. Because of the popularity of long-haul tourism, cases of imported malaria are increasingly frequent and, in view of the insidiously progressive course of the disease, it should always be considered in the differential diagnosis. In cases of unexplained death, if there is any suspicion of malaria, blood should always be taken for appropriate investigations, in addition to blocks for histological examination. PMID:7821199

  3. [Malaria in Iraq].

    PubMed

    Shamo, F J

    2001-01-01

    Malaria control campaign started in Iraq in 1957. This made the country largely free of the disease. Since 1991, following the recent war, Iraq has been affected by serious epidemic of P. vivax malaria that started in 3 autonomous governorates and soon involved other parts of the country. There were 49,840 malaria cases in the country in 1995. The national malaria programme personnel did their best to contain and control the epidemic. Active and passive case detection and treatment were introduced. Free of charge drugs are provided at all levels in the endemic area. Vector control includes environmental management, distribution of Gambusia fish, larviciding, indoor residual spraying with pyrithroids. A total of 4134 malaria cases were recorded in the country in 1999. PMID:11548316

  4. Effectiveness of Implementation of Electronic Malaria Information System as the National Malaria Surveillance System in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    system implemented has achieved its objective. The results of the study suggested that the eMIS helps improve the quality of Thailand’s malaria surveillance system. As the national malaria surveillance system, the eMIS’s functionalities have provided the malaria staff working at the point of care with close-to-real-time case management data quality, covering case detection, case investigation, drug compliance, and follow-up visits. Such features has led to an improvement in the quality of the malaria control program; the government officials now have quicker access to both individual and aggregated data to promptly react to possible outbreak. The eMIS thus plays one of the key roles in moving toward the national goal of malaria elimination by the next decade. PMID:27227156

  5. A model for estimating the cost impact of schedule perturbations on aerospace research and development programs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bishop, D. F.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of determining the cost impact attributable to perturbations in an aerospace R and D program schedule is discussed in terms of the diminishing availability of funds. The methodology from which a model is presented for updating R and D cost estimates as a function of perturbations in program time is presented.

  6. Closing the Education Gender Gap: Estimating the Impact of Girls' Scholarship Program in the Gambia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gajigo, Ousman

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of a school fee elimination program for female secondary students in The Gambia to reduce gender disparity in education. To assess the impact of the program, two nationally representative household surveys were used (1998 and 2002/2003). By 2002/2003, about half of the districts in the country had benefited from the…

  7. Malaria Incidence Rates from Time Series of 2-Wave Panel Surveys.

    PubMed

    Castro, Marcia C; Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Chiyaka, Christinah; Singer, Burton H

    2016-08-01

    Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data-specifically, 2-wave panel data-was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological developments

  8. Malaria Incidence Rates from Time Series of 2-Wave Panel Surveys

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Chiyaka, Christinah; Singer, Burton H.

    2016-01-01

    Methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from a commonly occurring form of interval-censored longitudinal parasitological data—specifically, 2-wave panel data—was first proposed 40 years ago based on the theory of continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chains. Assumptions of the methodology were suitable for settings with high malaria transmission in the absence of control measures, but are violated in areas experiencing fast decline or that have achieved very low transmission. No further developments that can accommodate such violations have been put forth since then. We extend previous work and propose a new methodology to estimate malaria incidence rates from 2-wave panel data, utilizing the class of 2-component mixtures of continuous-time Markov chains, representing two sub-populations with distinct behavior/attitude towards malaria prevention and treatment. Model identification, or even partial identification, requires context-specific a priori constraints on parameters. The method can be applied to scenarios of any transmission intensity. We provide an application utilizing data from Dar es Salaam, an area that experienced steady decline in malaria over almost five years after a larviciding intervention. We conducted sensitivity analysis to account for possible sampling variation in input data and model assumptions/parameters, and we considered differences in estimates due to submicroscopic infections. Results showed that, assuming defensible a priori constraints on model parameters, most of the uncertainty in the estimated incidence rates was due to sampling variation, not to partial identifiability of the mixture model for the case at hand. Differences between microscopy- and PCR-based rates depend on the transmission intensity. Leveraging on a method to estimate incidence rates from 2-wave panel data under any transmission intensity, and from the increasing availability of such data, there is an opportunity to foster further methodological

  9. IMAGES: A digital computer program for interactive modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, R. L.

    1984-01-01

    An interactive digital computer program for modal analysis and gain estimation for eigensystem synthesis was written. Both mathematical and operation considerations are described; however, the mathematical presentation is limited to those concepts essential to the operational capability of the program. The program is capable of both modal and spectral synthesis of multi-input control systems. It is user friendly, has scratchpad capability and dynamic memory, and can be used to design either state or output feedback systems.

  10. GEODYN operations description, volume 3. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, T. V.; Mullins, N. E.

    1972-01-01

    The operating and set-up procedures for the multi-satellite, multi-arc GEODYN- Orbit Determination program are described. All system output is analyzed. The GEODYN Program is the nucleus of the entire GEODYN system. It is a definitive orbit and geodetic parameter estimation program capable of simultaneously processing observations from multiple arcs of multiple satellites. GEODYN has two modes of operation: (1) the data reduction mode and (2) the orbit generation mode.

  11. Role of pyrethroids in control of malaria amongst refugee population.

    PubMed

    Jamali, Seemin

    2011-05-01

    Malaria is a human disease caused by sporozoan parasite belonging to genus plasmodium. According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates for year 2006, there were 247 million clinical infections and 0.88 million deaths due to malaria. Malaria control programmes aim to contain the disease and reduce its' burden on the refugees by adopting various methods to reduce the incidence of malaria by targeting the mosquitos. Most of the displaced people live in Asia and Africa, where host countries lack the resources to support them. Under these conditions, the methods adopted for control of malaria should be both effective and safe. Pyrethroids form the mainstay of preventive measures due to their efficacy and safety in mammals. They can be used as (a) indoor residual sprays, (b) impregnation of bednets, blankets/top sheets, curtains and personal clothing, (c) pyrethroid containing coils, mats and vaporizers and (d) livestock sponging. PMID:22204186

  12. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements study. Volume 3, book 1: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peffley, Al F.

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study cost estimate and program planning analysis is presented. The cost estimating technique used to support STV system, subsystem, and component cost analysis is a mixture of parametric cost estimating and selective cost analogy approaches. The parametric cost analysis is aimed at developing cost-effective aerobrake, crew module, tank module, and lander designs with the parametric cost estimates data. This is accomplished using cost as a design parameter in an iterative process with conceptual design input information. The parametric estimating approach segregates costs by major program life cycle phase (development, production, integration, and launch support). These phases are further broken out into major hardware subsystems, software functions, and tasks according to the STV preliminary program work breakdown structure (WBS). The WBS is defined to a low enough level of detail by the study team to highlight STV system cost drivers. This level of cost visibility provided the basis for cost sensitivity analysis against various design approaches aimed at achieving a cost-effective design. The cost approach, methodology, and rationale are described. A chronological record of the interim review material relating to cost analysis is included along with a brief summary of the study contract tasks accomplished during that period of review and the key conclusions or observations identified that relate to STV program cost estimates. The STV life cycle costs are estimated on the proprietary parametric cost model (PCM) with inputs organized by a project WBS. Preliminary life cycle schedules are also included.

  13. Malaria Eradication and Educational Attainment: Evidence from Paraguay and Sri Lanka†

    PubMed Central

    Lucas, Adrienne M.

    2013-01-01

    Mid-twentieth century malaria eradication campaigns largely eliminated malaria from Paraguay and Sri Lanka. Using these interventions as quasi-experiments, I estimate malaria’s effect on lifetime female educational attainment through the combination of pre-existing geographic variation in malarial intensity and cohort exposure based on the timing of the national anti-malaria campaigns. The estimates from Sri Lanka and Paraguay are similar and indicate that malaria eradication increased years of educational attainment and literacy. The similarity of the estimates across the countries reinforces our confidence in the validity of the identification strategy. PMID:23946866

  14. Using a geographical information system to plan a malaria control programme in South Africa.

    PubMed Central

    Booman, M.; Durrheim, D. N.; La Grange, K.; Martin, C.; Mabuza, A. M.; Zitha, A.; Mbokazi, F. M.; Fraser, C.; Sharp, B. L.

    2000-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Sustainable control of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa is jeopardized by dwindling public health resources resulting from competing health priorities that include an overwhelming acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. In Mpumalanga province, South Africa, rational planning has historically been hampered by a case surveillance system for malaria that only provided estimates of risk at the magisterial district level (a subdivision of a province). METHODS: To better map control programme activities to their geographical location, the malaria notification system was overhauled and a geographical information system implemented. The introduction of a simplified notification form used only for malaria and a carefully monitored notification system provided the good quality data necessary to support an effective geographical information system. RESULTS: The geographical information system displays data on malaria cases at a village or town level and has proved valuable in stratifying malaria risk within those magisterial districts at highest risk, Barberton and Nkomazi. The conspicuous west-to-east gradient, in which the risk rises sharply towards the Mozambican border (relative risk = 4.12, 95% confidence interval = 3.88-4.46 when the malaria risk within 5 km of the border was compared with the remaining areas in these two districts), allowed development of a targeted approach to control. DISCUSSION: The geographical information system for malaria was enormously valuable in enabling malaria risk at town and village level to be shown. Matching malaria control measures to specific strata of endemic malaria has provided the opportunity for more efficient malaria control in Mpumalanga province. PMID:11196490

  15. Malaria vaccine offers hope. International / Africa.

    PubMed

    1995-04-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) may soon sign an agreement with the Colombian government to build a plant in Colombia for the mass production of the malaria vaccine SPf66. SPf66 consists of a combination of synthetic peptides. It will eventually be available in Africa, where 90% of all recorded malaria cases occur each year. 1 million of the 1.5-3 million malaria-related deaths each year also occur in Africa. Many of these deaths take place in children. The indirect costs of malaria in Africa is expected to increase from $800 million to $1.8 billion between 1987 and the end of 1995. Based on findings from the various clinical trials in Colombia, Thailand, The Gambia, and Tanzania, WHO's director of Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) claims that, if SPf66 can reduce the malaria incidence rate by 50% and thereby also the malaria-related death rate, the lives of 500,000 children in Africa would be spared. TDR will meet in mid-1996 to sort through all the SPf66 findings and then develop a policy for further development or production and use of SPf66. The price of each SPf66 vaccination should be around $5, comparable with the higher range of costs of other vaccines provided by WHO's Expanded Program of Immunization and UNICEF. At the 1992 WHO summit in Amsterdam, the president of the Congo called for the international community to join forces to eliminate malaria. When it was first tested on humans, in Colombia, the protection rate of SPf66 ranged from 22% to 77%, with the best results among the young and the very old. It has not caused any harmful side effects.

  16. Modeling Malaria Transmission in Thailand and Indonesia

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Nigro, Joseph

    2007-01-01

    Malaria Modeling and Surveillance is a project in the NASA Applied Sciences Public Health Applications Program. The main objectives of this project are: 1) identification of the potential breeding sites for major vector species: 2) implementation of a malaria transmission model to identify they key factors that sustain or intensify malaria transmission; and 3) implementation of a risk algorithm to predict the occurrence of malaria and its transmission intensity. Remote sensing and GIs are the essential elements of this project. The NASA Earth science data sets used in this project include AVHRR Pathfinder, TRMM, MODIS, NSIPP and SIESIP. Textural-contextual classifications are used to identify small larval habitats. Neural network methods are used to model malaria cases as a function of precipitation, temperatures, humidity and vegetation. Hindcastings based on these environmental parameters have shown good agreement to epidemiological records. Examples for spatio-temporal modeling of malaria transmissions in Southeast Asia are given. Discrete event simulations were used for modeling the detailed interactions among the vector life cycle, sporogonic cycle and human infection cycle, under the explicit influences of selected extrinsic and intrinsic factors. The output of the model includes the individual infection status and the quantities normally observed in field studies, such as mosquito biting rates, sporozoite infection rates, gametocyte prevalence and incidence. Results are in good agreement with mosquito vector and human malaria data acquired by Coleman et al. over 4.5 years in Kong Mong Tha, a remote village in western Thailand. Application of our models is not restricted to Southeast Asia. The model and techniques are equally applicable to other regions of the world, when appropriate epidemiological and vector ecological parameters are used as input.

  17. gSG6-P1 salivary biomarker discriminates micro-geographical heterogeneity of human exposure to Anopheles bites in low and seasonal malaria areas

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Over the past decade, a sharp decline of malaria burden has been observed in several countries. Consequently, the conventional entomological methods have become insufficiently sensitive and probably under-estimate micro-geographical heterogeneity of exposure and subsequent risk of malaria transmission. In this study, we investigated whether the human antibody (Ab) response to Anopheles salivary gSG6-P1 peptide, known as a biomarker of Anopheles exposure, could be a sensitive and reliable tool for discriminating human exposure to Anopheles bites in area of low and seasonal malaria transmission. Methods A multi-disciplinary survey was performed in Northern Senegal where An. gambiae s.l. is the main malaria vector. Human IgG Ab response to gSG6-P1 salivary peptide was compared according to the season and villages in children from five villages in the middle Senegal River valley, known as a low malaria transmission area. Results IgG levels to gSG6-P1 varied considerably according to the villages, discriminating the heterogeneity of Anopheles exposure between villages. Significant increase of IgG levels to gSG6-P1 was observed during the peak of exposure to Anopheles bites, and decreased immediately after the end of the exposure season. In addition, differences in the season-dependent specific IgG levels between villages were observed after the implementation of Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets by The National Malaria Control Program in this area. Conclusion The gSG6-P1 salivary peptide seems to be a reliable tool to discriminate the micro-geographical heterogeneity of human exposure to Anopheles bites in areas of very low and seasonal malaria transmission. A biomarker such as this could also be used to monitor and evaluate the possible heterogeneous effectiveness of operational vector control programs in low-exposure areas. PMID:23497646

  18. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence) built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data). The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM). Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS) error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2 national subdivisions and

  19. Barriers to Malaria Control among Marginalized Tribal Communities: A Qualitative Study

    PubMed Central

    Sundararajan, Radhika; Kalkonde, Yogeshwar; Gokhale, Charuta; Greenough, P. Gregg; Bang, Abhay

    2013-01-01

    healers partners in malaria control; promoting within-village rapid diagnosis and treatment; increasing ITN distribution and promoting their use as potential strategies to decrease infection rates in these communities. These insights may be used to shape malaria control programs among marginalized populations. PMID:24376507

  20. A nation-wide malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices survey in Malawi: introduction.

    PubMed

    Wirima, J J

    1994-03-01

    In Malawi malaria is the most frequent cause of morbidity and mortality in children and pertinent hospitalizations have been increasing annually since 1982. In 1990, malaria and malaria-associated anemia constituted the leading cause of outpatient visits for all age groups and the leading cause of pediatric hospitalizations, and pediatric inpatient deaths. The Ministry of Health in Malawi has had a National Malaria Control Plan since 1985. This plan calls for improvement in: 1) awareness of malaria in the population; 2) accurate diagnosis; (3) effective and affordable treatment nationwide; 4) effective prevention for high risk groups; 5) clarification of feasibility of alternative methods of vector control; 6) improved training in diagnosis and management; 7) accurate reporting; 8) effective management at national, regional, and district levels; 9) improved ability to monitor and evaluate progress; and 10) increased government and donor investment in malaria control. The Ministry of Health undertook a national baseline survey to explore deficiencies in current malaria control practices, and also included a cost assessment of household expenditure on malaria. A number of articles document the results of this effort highlighting characteristics of malaria in Malawi and current control methods by the population. These aspects include: 1) malaria is perceived as a very important health problem: 2) prompt treatment with a full dosage of the recommended antimalarials occurs in less than 10% of febrile children; 3) a malaria prevention program based in antenatal clinics could provide affordable malaria prevention for most pregnant women; 4) few households use measures to prevent malaria which is largely associated with poverty: and 5) a high proportion of available household income is spent on malaria treatment or is lost to malaria illness. The Malawian situation is similar to that of neighboring nations, and it is hoped that they also embark on malaria control in their

  1. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E; Gutierrez, Juan B; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2012-03-01

    Latin America contributes 1-1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination.

  2. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America.

    PubMed

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E; Gutierrez, Juan B; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C; Arévalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2012-03-01

    Latin America contributes 1-1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. PMID:21781953

  3. Prospects for malaria elimination in non-Amazonian regions of Latin America

    PubMed Central

    Herrera, Sócrates; Quiñones, Martha Lucia; Quintero, Juan Pablo; Corredor, Vladimir; Fuller, Douglas O.; Mateus, Julio Cesar; Calzada, Jose E.; Gutierrez, Juan B.; Llanos, Alejandro; Soto, Edison; Menendez, Clara; Wu, Yimin; Alonso, Pedro; Carrasquilla, Gabriel; Galinski, Mary; Beier, John C.; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam

    2011-01-01

    Latin America contributes 1 to 1.2 million clinical malaria cases to the global malaria burden of about 300 million per year. In 21 malaria endemic countries, the population at risk in this region represents less than 10% of the total population exposed worldwide. Factors such as rapid deforestation, inadequate agricultural practices, climate change, political instability, and both increasing parasite drug resistance and vector resistance to insecticides contribute to malaria transmission. Recently, several malaria endemic countries have experienced a significant reduction in numbers of malaria cases. This is most likely due to actions taken by National Malaria Control Programs (NMCP) with the support from international funding agencies. We describe here the research strategies and activities to be undertaken by the Centro Latino Americano de Investigación en Malaria (CLAIM), a new research center established for the non-Amazonian region of Latin America by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). Throughout a network of countries in the region, initially including Colombia, Guatemala, Panama, and Peru, CLAIM will address major gaps in our understanding of changing malaria epidemiology, vector biology and control, and clinical malaria mainly due to Plasmodium vivax. In close partnership with NMCPs, CLAIM seeks to conduct research on how and why malaria is decreasing in many countries of the region as a basis for developing and implementing new strategies that will accelerate malaria elimination. PMID:21781953

  4. Neurological manifestations of malaria.

    PubMed

    Román, G C; Senanayake, N

    1992-03-01

    The involvement of the nervous system in malaria is reviewed in this paper. Cerebral malaria, the acute encephalopathy which complicates exclusively the infection by Plasmodium falciparum commonly affects children and adolescents in hyperendemic areas. Plugging of cerebral capillaries and venules by clumped, parasitized red cells causing sludging in the capillary circulation is one hypothesis to explain its pathogenesis. The other is a humoral hypothesis which proposes nonspecific, immune-mediated, inflammatory responses with release of vasoactive substances capable of producing endothelial damage and alterations of permeability. Cerebral malaria has a mortality rate up to 50%, and also a considerable longterm morbidity, particularly in children. Hypoglycemia, largely in patients treated with quinine, may complicate the cerebral symptomatology. Other central nervous manifestations of malaria include intracranial hemorrhage, cerebral arterial occlusion, and transient extrapyramidal and neuropsychiatric manifestations. A self-limiting, isolated cerebellar ataxia, presumably caused by immunological mechanisms, in patients recovering from falciparum malaria has been recognized in Sri Lanka. Malaria is a common cause of febrile seizures in the tropics, and it also contributes to the development of epilepsy in later life. Several reports of spinal cord and peripheral nerve involvement are also available. A transient muscle paralysis resembling periodic paralysis during febrile episodes of malaria has been described in some patients. The pathogenesis of these neurological manifestations remains unexplored, but offers excellent perspectives for research at a clinical as well as experimental level. PMID:1307475

  5. Malaria in Children

    PubMed Central

    Schumacher, Richard-Fabian; Spinelli, Elena

    2012-01-01

    This review is focused on childhood specific aspects of malaria, especially in resource-poor settings. We summarise the actual knowledge in the field of epidemiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, management and prevention. These aspects are important as malaria is responsible for almost a quarter of all child death in sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria control is thus one key intervention to reduce childhood mortality, especially as malaria is also an important risk factor for other severe infections, namely bacteraemia. In children symptoms are more varied and often mimic other common childhood illness, particularly gastroenteritis, meningitis/encephalitis, or pneumonia. Fever is the key symptom, but the characteristic regular tertian and quartan patterns are rarely observed. There are no pathognomonic features for severe malaria in this age group. The well known clinical (fever, impaired consciousness, seizures, vomiting, respiratory distress) and laboratory (severe anaemia, thrombocytopenia, hypoglycaemia, metabolic acidosis, and hyperlactataemia) features of severe falciparum malaria in children, are equally typical for severe sepsis. Appropriate therapy (considering species, resistance patterns and individual patient factors) – possibly a drug combination of an artemisinin derivative with a long-acting antimalarial drug - reduces treatment duration to only three days and should be urgently started. While waiting for the results of ongoing vaccine trials, all effort should be made to better implement other malaria-control measures like the use of treated bed-nets, repellents and new chemoprophylaxis regimens. PMID:23205261

  6. Migration and malaria.

    PubMed

    Jitthai, Nigoon

    2013-01-01

    Migration is an important global issue as poorly managed migration can result in a diversity of problems, including an increase in the transmission of diseases such as malaria. There is evidence to suggest that malaria is no longer a forest-dependent disease and may largely be affected by population movements, mostly to agricultural areas. While internal and transnational migration has different legal implications in most countries, both types of migration occur for the same reasons; economic and/ or safety. Although migration in itself is not a definitive risk for malaria, several factors can put, migrants and local communities alike, in vulnerable situations. In particular, infrastructure and rural development, deforestation for logging and economic farming, political movements, and natural disasters are some of the major factors that push and pull people in and out of malaria-endemic areas. Therefore, understanding the changing socio-environmental situation as well as population movements and their associated risks for malaria infection, is critical for malaria control, containment, and elimination. Efforts to address these issues should include advocacy, mapping exercises and expanded/ strengthened surveillance to also include migrant health information systems. Malaria related information, prevention measures, and early diagnosis and appropriate treatment should be made easily accessible for migrants regardless of their migration status; not only to ensure that they are equipped with appropriate knowledge and devices to protect themselves, but also to ensure that they are properly diagnosed and treated, to prevent further transmission, and to ensure that they are captured by the surveillance system. PMID:24159832

  7. Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Endemicity in Indonesia in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Elyazar, Iqbal R. F.; Gething, Peter W.; Patil, Anand P.; Rogayah, Hanifah; Kusriastuti, Rita; Wismarini, Desak M.; Tarmizi, Siti N.; Baird, J. Kevin; Hay, Simon I.

    2011-01-01

    Background Malaria control programs require a detailed understanding of the contemporary spatial distribution of infection risk to efficiently allocate resources. We used model based geostatistics (MBG) techniques to generate a contemporary map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria risk in Indonesia in 2010. Methods Plasmodium falciparum Annual Parasite Incidence (PfAPI) data (2006–2008) were used to map limits of P. falciparum transmission. A total of 2,581 community blood surveys of P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) were identified (1985–2009). After quality control, 2,516 were included into a national database of age-standardized 2–10 year old PfPR data (PfPR2–10) for endemicity mapping. A Bayesian MBG procedure was used to create a predicted surface of PfPR2–10 endemicity with uncertainty estimates. Population at risk estimates were derived with reference to a 2010 human population count surface. Results We estimate 132.8 million people in Indonesia, lived at risk of P. falciparum transmission in 2010. Of these, 70.3% inhabited areas of unstable transmission and 29.7% in stable transmission. Among those exposed to stable risk, the vast majority were at low risk (93.39%) with the reminder at intermediate (6.6%) and high risk (0.01%). More people in western Indonesia lived in unstable rather than stable transmission zones. In contrast, fewer people in eastern Indonesia lived in unstable versus stable transmission areas. Conclusion While further feasibility assessments will be required, the immediate prospects for sustained control are good across much of the archipelago and medium term plans to transition to the pre-elimination phase are not unrealistic for P. falciparum. Endemicity in areas of Papua will clearly present the greatest challenge. This P. falciparum endemicity map allows malaria control agencies and their partners to comprehensively assess the region-specific prospects for reaching pre-elimination, monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of

  8. Exploring the relationship between malaria, rainfall intermittency, and spatial variation in rainfall seasonality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merkord, C. L.; Wimberly, M. C.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Malaria is a major public health problem throughout tropical regions of the world. Successful prevention and treatment of malaria requires an understanding of the environmental factors that affect the life cycle of both the malaria pathogens, protozoan parasites, and its vectors, anopheline mosquitos. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates (TRMM and GPM), evapotranspiration derived from a simplified surface energy balance, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave imagery. Previous studies have found links between malaria cases and total monthly or weekly rainfall in areas where both are highly seasonal. However it is far from clear that monthly or weekly summaries are the best metrics to use to explain malaria outbreaks. It is possible that particular temporal or spatial patterns of rainfall result in better mosquito habitat and thus higher malaria risk. We used malaria case data from the Amhara region of Ethiopia and satellite-derived rainfall estimates to explore the relationship between malaria outbreaks and rainfall with the goal of identifying the most useful rainfall metrics for modeling malaria occurrence. First, we explored spatial variation in the seasonal patterns of both rainfall and malaria cases in Amhara. Second, we assessed the relative importance of different metrics of rainfall intermittency, including alternation of wet and dry spells, the strength of intensity fluctuations, and spatial variability in these measures, in determining the length and severity of malaria outbreaks. We also explored the sensitivity of our results to the choice of method for describing rainfall intermittency and the spatial and temporal scale at which metrics were calculated. Results

  9. Tackling Imported Malaria: An Elimination Endgame

    PubMed Central

    Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Roberts, Kathryn W.; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Ohrt, Colin; Gosling, Roly D.

    2015-01-01

    As countries move toward malaria elimination, imported infections become increasingly significant as they often represent the majority of cases, can sustain transmission, cause resurgences, and lead to mortality. Here we review and critique current methods to prevent malaria importation in countries pursuing elimination and explore methods applied in other transmission settings and to other diseases that could be transferred to support malaria elimination. To improve intervention targeting we need a better understanding of the characteristics of populations importing infections and their patterns of migration, improved methods to reliably classify infections as imported or acquired locally, and ensure early and accurate diagnosis. The potential for onward transmission in the most receptive and vulnerable locations can be predicted through high-resolution risk mapping that can help malaria elimination or prevention of reintroduction programs target resources. Cross border and regional initiatives can be highly effective when based on an understanding of human and parasite movement. Ultimately, determining the optimal combinations of approaches to address malaria importation will require an evaluation of their impact, cost effectiveness, and operational feasibility. PMID:26013369

  10. [Current data on malaria in metropolitan France].

    PubMed

    Danis, M; Legros, F; Thellier, M; Caumes, E

    2002-01-01

    Epidemiological data from the French National Reference Center for Imported Diseases showed that the estimated number of cases of imported malaria in France increased from 5,940 in 1998 to 7,127 in 1999 and 8,056 in 2000. This three-year progression ended in 2001 when the number of estimated cases fell back to 7,223. It was due mainly to the concomitant increase in the number of people traveling to endemic zones especially in Africa. In 2000 the median age of patients with imported malaria in France was 29.5 years and the sex ratio was 1.78. Sixty-three percent of cases involved people of African origin and 37% involved "Westerners". The countries in which contamination occurred were located in tropical Africa (95%), Asia (2.2%), and Latin America (2.7%). During the three year period from 1998 to 2000, there were a total of 13 accidental autochtonous cases of malaria involving patients with no history of travel to tropical areas. The distribution of Plasmodium species involved in imported malaria in France was stable with 83% of cases involving Plasmodium falciparum, 6% involving Plasmodium vivax, 6.5% involving Plasmodium ovale and 1.3% involving Plasmodium malariae. Attacks were clinically uncomplicated in 90 to 95% of cases and severe in 2 to 5% including fatal Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 0.49 to 0.37% of cases. Less than 10% of the 45% of patients claiming use of prophylaxis complied properly. Analysis of the drugs used for curative treatment in 2000 showed an increase in the use of quinine and mefloquine and decrease in the use of halofantrine. The main objectives remain reduction of mortality and improvement of prevention.

  11. EMIRA: Ecologic Malaria Reduction for Africa – innovative tools for integrated malaria control

    PubMed Central

    Dambach, Peter; Traoré, Issouf; Becker, Norbert; Kaiser, Achim; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria control is based on early treatment of cases and on vector control. The current measures for malaria vector control in Africa are mainly based on long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and to a much smaller extent on indoor residual spraying (IRS). A third pillar in the fight against the malaria vector, larval source management (LSM), has virtually not been used in Africa since the ban of DDT in the 1960s. Within the light of recent WHO recommendations for Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti) use against malaria and other vector species, larval source management could see a revival in the upcoming years. In this project we analyze the ecologic and health impacts as well as the cost effectiveness of larval source management under different larviciding scenarios in a health district in Burkina Faso. Methods The project is designed as prospective intervention study with duration of three years (2013–2015). Its spatial scale includes three arms of interventions and control, comprising a total of 127 villages and the district capital Nouna in the extended HDSS (Health Demographic Surveillance System) of the Kossi province. Baseline data on mosquito abundance, parasitemia in U5 children, and malaria related morbidity and mortality are gathered over the project duration. Besides the outcome on ecologic and health parameters, the economic costs are seized and valued against the achieved health benefits. Conclusions Risk map based, guided larvicide application might be a possibility to further decrease economic cost of LSM and facilitate its faster incorporation to integrated malaria control programs. Given the limited resources in many malaria endemic countries, it is of utmost importance to relate the costs of novel strategies for malaria prevention to their effect on the burden of the disease. Occurring costs and the impact on the health situation will be made comparable to other, existing intervention strategies, allowing stakeholders and

  12. Malaria, miseria, and underpopulation in Sardinia: the "malaria blocks development" cultural model.

    PubMed

    Brown, P J

    1997-05-01

    Until the late Nineteenth century, endemic malaria was a serious public health problem in Sardinia, as in much of Southern Italy. As the poorest region of the new Italian nation, Sardinia was characterized by poor health, very low population densities, low agricultural productivity, and weak state authority associated with banditry. In this context, however, malaria was singled out as a key underlying problem for the situation of "internal underdevelopment." This paper describes the Italian scholarly literature about the relationship of malaria and economic productivity as a cultural model that can be labeled as "malaria blocks development" (MBD). Anti-malaria programs, including the state control of the distribution of quinine as well as land reclamation projects, played a major role in the decrease of malaria mortality in the first part of this century. Based on the logic of the MBD model, the decrease in malaria was expected to decrease an obstacle to "natural processes" of economic development. During the Fascist era, scientifically based antimalaria efforts formed a key element in centralized attempts for agricultural intensification and encouragement of immigration from over-populated parts of the country. Immediately after W.W.II, Sardinia was the site of a successful American-sponsored eradication project that represented one of the first uses of DDT against an indigenous anopheles vector. Hypotheses based on the MBD model about the nature of economic change after the removal of malaria are not supported. Nevertheless, variations of the MBD cultural model continue to be used in the field of International Health to the present day.

  13. Malaria and Vascular Endothelium

    PubMed Central

    de Alencar, Aristóteles Comte; de Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães; Okoshi, Katashi; Okoshi, Marina Politi

    2014-01-01

    Involvement of the cardiovascular system in patients with infectious and parasitic diseases can result from both intrinsic mechanisms of the disease and drug intervention. Malaria is an example, considering that the endothelial injury by Plasmodium-infected erythrocytes can cause circulatory disorders. This is a literature review aimed at discussing the relationship between malaria and endothelial impairment, especially its effects on the cardiovascular system. We discuss the implications of endothelial aggression and the interdisciplinarity that should guide the malaria patient care, whose acute infection can contribute to precipitate or aggravate a preexisting heart disease. PMID:25014058

  14. Malaria: prevention in travellers

    PubMed Central

    Croft, Ashley

    2000-01-01

    Definition Malaria is caused by a protozoan infection of red blood cells with one of four species of the genus plasmodium: P falciparum, P vivax, P ovale, or P malariae.1 Clinically, malaria may present in different ways, but it is usually characterised by fever (which may be swinging), tachycardia, rigors, and sweating. Anaemia, hepatosplenomegaly, cerebral involvement, renal failure, and shock may occur. Incidence/prevalence Each year there are 300-500 million clinical cases of malaria. About 40% of the world's population is at risk of acquiring the disease.23 Each year 25-30 million people from non-tropical countries visit areas in which malaria is endemic,4 of whom between 10 000 and 30 000 contract malaria.5 Aetiology/risk factors Malaria is mainly a rural disease, requiring standing water nearby. It is transmitted by bites6 from infected female anopheline mosquitoes,7 mainly at dusk and during the night.18 In cities, mosquito bites are usually from female culicene mosquitoes, which are not vectors of malaria.9 Malaria is resurgent in most tropical countries and the risk to travellers is increasing.10 Prognosis Ninety per cent of travellers who contract malaria do not become ill until after they return home.5 “Imported malaria” is easily treated if diagnosed promptly, and it follows a serious course in only about 12% of people.1112 The most severe form of the disease is cerebral malaria, with a case fatality rate in adult travellers of 2-6%,3 mainly because of delays in diagnosis.5 Aims To reduce the risk of infection; to prevent illness and death. Outcomes Rates of malarial illness and death, and adverse effects of treatment. Proxy measures include number of mosquito bites and number of mosquitoes in indoor areas. We found limited evidence linking number of mosquito bites and risk of malaria.13 Methods Clinical Evidence search and appraisal in November 1999. We reviewed all identified systematic reviews and randomised controlled trials (RCTs

  15. Malaria prevention in travelers.

    PubMed

    Genton, Blaise; D'Acremont, Valérie

    2012-09-01

    A common approach to malaria prevention is to follow the "A, B, C, D" rule: Awareness of risk, Bite avoidance, Compliance with chemoprophylaxis, and prompt Diagnosis in case of fever. The risk of acquiring malaria depends on the length and intensity of exposure; the risk of developing severe disease is primarily determined by the health status of the traveler. These parameters need to be assessed before recommending chemoprophylaxis and/or stand-by emergency treatment. This review discusses the different strategies and drug options available for the prevention of malaria during and post travel.

  16. Value drivers: an approach for estimating health and disease management program savings.

    PubMed

    Phillips, V L; Becker, Edmund R; Howard, David H

    2013-12-01

    Health and disease management (HDM) programs have faced challenges in documenting savings related to their implementation. The objective of this eliminate study was to describe OptumHealth's (Optum) methods for estimating anticipated savings from HDM programs using Value Drivers. Optum's general methodology was reviewed, along with details of 5 high-use Value Drivers. The results showed that the Value Driver approach offers an innovative method for estimating savings associated with HDM programs. The authors demonstrated how real-time savings can be estimated for 5 Value Drivers commonly used in HDM programs: (1) use of beta-blockers in treatment of heart disease, (2) discharge planning for high-risk patients, (3) decision support related to chronic low back pain, (4) obesity management, and (5) securing transportation for primary care. The validity of savings estimates is dependent on the type of evidence used to gauge the intervention effect, generating changes in utilization and, ultimately, costs. The savings estimates derived from the Value Driver method are generally reasonable to conservative and provide a valuable framework for estimating financial impacts from evidence-based interventions.

  17. Malaria in Turkey: successful control and strategies for achieving elimination.

    PubMed

    Özbilgina, Ahmet; Topluoglu, Seher; Es, Saffet; Islek, Elif; Mollahaliloglu, Salih; Erkoc, Yasin

    2011-01-01

    Turkey is located in the middle of Asia, Africa and Europe, close to Caucasia, Balkans and Middle East in subtropical climate zone. Malaria has been known since the early ages of human history and it was one of the leading diseases in Anatolian history, as well. Today, chloroquine-sensitive Plasmodium vivax is the only agent of autochthonous malaria cases in Turkey. The other Plasmodium species identified are isolated from imported cases of malaria. The most common vector of malaria in Turkey is Anopheles sacharovi followed by An. superpictus, An. maculipennis and An. subalpinus. In 2009, pre-elimination stage of Malaria Program was started due to dramatic decline in the number of malaria cases in Turkey (Total, 84; 38 autochthonous cases only in 26 foci in south-eastern Anatolia, and 46 imported cases; incidence: 0.1/100,000). As there were no detected cases of new autochthonous malaria in the first 8 months of 2010, elimination stage was started. The role of the persistent policies and successful applications of the Ministry of Health, such as the strict control of the patients using anti-malarial drugs especially chloroquine, avoidance of resistant insecticides, facilitation of access to patients via Health Transformation Program (HTP), establishment of close contact with the patients' families, and improvement of reporting and surveillance system, was essential. In addition, improvement maintained in the motivations and professional rights of malaria workers, as well in the coordination of field studies and maintenance of a decline or termination in vector-to-person transmission were all achieved with the insistent policies of the Ministry of Health. Other factors that probably contributed to elimination studies include lessening of military operations in south-eastern Anatolia and the lowering of malaria cases in neighbouring countries in recent years. Free access to health services concerning malaria is still successfully conducted throughout the country

  18. Malaria Distribution, Prevalence, Drug Resistance and Control in Indonesia

    PubMed Central

    Elyazar, Iqbal R.F.; Hay, Simon I.; Baird, J. Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d’état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs. PMID:21295677

  19. Malaria distribution, prevalence, drug resistance and control in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Elyazar, Iqbal R F; Hay, Simon I; Baird, J Kevin

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 230 million people live in Indonesia. The country is also home to over 20 anopheline vectors of malaria which transmit all four of the species of Plasmodium that routinely infect humans. A complex mosaic of risk of infection across this 5000-km-long archipelago of thousands of islands and distinctive habitats seriously challenges efforts to control malaria. Social, economic and political dimensions contribute to these complexities. This chapter examines malaria and its control in Indonesia, from the earliest efforts by malariologists of the colonial Netherlands East Indies, through the Global Malaria Eradication Campaign of the 1950s, the tumult following the coup d'état of 1965, the global resurgence of malaria through the 1980s and 1990s and finally through to the decentralization of government authority following the fall of the authoritarian Soeharto regime in 1998. We detail important methods of control and their impact in the context of the political systems that supported them. We examine prospects for malaria control in contemporary decentralized and democratized Indonesia with multidrug-resistant malaria and greatly diminished capacities for integrated malaria control management programs. PMID:21295677

  20. Malaria in the Era of Food Fortification With Folic Acid.

    PubMed

    Nzila, Alexis; Okombo, John; Hyde, John

    2016-06-01

    Food fortified with folic acid has been available for consumption in North America for over a decade. This strategy has led to an increase in folate levels in the general population and, more importantly, a significant decrease in the incidence of neural tube defects. However, this increase in folate intake has been associated with a greater risk of cancer disease. Many African countries are now embracing this concept; however, because folate promotes malaria parasite division, as it does in cancer cells, there is a possibility of malaria exacerbation if folate intake is increased. A precedent for such a concern is the now compelling evidence showing that an increase in iron intake can lead to a higher malaria risk; as a result, mass administration of iron in malaria-endemic areas is not recommended. In this article, we review work on the effect of folate on malaria parasites. Although this topic has received little research attention, the available data suggest that the increase in folate concentration could be associated with an increase in malaria infection. Thus, the introduction of food fortification with folic acid in malaria-endemic areas should be attended by precautionary programs to monitor the risk of malaria.

  1. Malaria on isolated Melanesian islands prior to the initiation of malaria elimination activities

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The Australian Government's Pacific Malaria Initiative (PacMI) is supporting the National Malaria Program in both Solomon Islands and Vanuatu, complementing assistance from the Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM). Two remote island groups - Tafea Province, Vanuatu and Temotu Province, Solomon Islands have been selected by the governments of both countries as possible malaria elimination areas. To provide information on the prevalence and distribution of the disease within these island groups, malariometric surveys were conducted during the wet seasons of 2008. Methods In Tafea Province, a school-based survey was conducted which included the 2-12 y age group, while in Temotu a village based all-ages survey was conducted. An effort was made to sample villages or schools from a wide an area as possible on all islands. Diagnosis was initially based on Giemsa stained blood slides followed by molecular analysis using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results In Tafea Province, 73% (5238/7150) of children (2-12 y) were surveyed and in Temotu Province, in the all-ages survey, 50.2% (8742/17410) of the provincial population participated in the survey. In both Vanuatu and Solomon Islands malariometric surveys of their southern-most islands in 2008 showed relatively low over-all malaria parasite prevalence (2 to 3%). Other features of malaria in these island groups were low parasitaemia, low gametocyte carriage rates, low spleen rates, low malaria associated morbidity, a high incidence of asymptomatic infections, and a predominance of Plasmodium vivax over Plasmodium falciparum. Conclusion For various reasons malaria rates are declining in these provinces providing a favourable situation for local malaria elimination. This will be advanced using mass distribution of bed nets and selective indoor residual spraying, the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests and artemisinin combination therapy, and intensive case detection and surveillance. It is as

  2. Cost of malaria control in Sri Lanka.

    PubMed Central

    Konradsen, F.; Steele, P.; Perera, D.; van der Hoek, W.; Amerasinghe, P. H.; Amerasinghe, F. P.

    1999-01-01

    The study provides estimates of the cost of various malaria control measures in an area of North-Central Province of Sri Lanka where the disease is endemic. We assumed that each measure was equally effective. In these terms, impregnating privately purchased bednets with insecticide was estimated to cost Rs 48 (US(40.87) per individual protected per year, less than half the cost of spraying houses with residual insecticides. Larviciding of vector breeding sites and especially the elimination of breeding habitats by flushing streams through seasonal release of water from upstream reservoirs was estimated to be cheaper than other preventive measures (Rs 27 (US$ 0.49) and Rs 13 (US$ 0.24) per individual protected, respectively). Inclusion of both operational and capital costs of treatment indicates that the most cost-effective intervention for the government was a centrally located hospital with a relatively large catchment area (Rs 71 (US$ 1.29) per malaria case treated). Mobile clinics (Rs 153 (US$ 2.78) per malaria case treated) and a village treatment centre (Rs 112 (US$ 2.04)) per malaria case treated) were more expensive options for the government, but were considerably cheaper for households than the traditional hospital facilities. This information can guide health planners and government decision-makers in choosing the most appropriate combination of curative and preventive measures to control malaria. However, the option that is cheapest for the government may not be so for the householders, and further studies are needed to estimate the effectiveness of the various preventive measures. PMID:10327708

  3. Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Maheu-Giroux, Mathieu; Castro, Marcia C.

    2013-01-01

    Background The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Methods and Findings Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004–2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66–0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). Conclusion A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam. PMID:23977099

  4. Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development.

    PubMed

    Sampaio, Vanderson Souza; Siqueira, André Machado; Alecrim, Maria das Graças Costa; Mourão, Maria Paula Gomes; Marchesini, Paola Barbosa; Albuquerque, Bernardino Cláudio; Nascimento, Joabi; Figueira, Élder Augusto Guimarães; Alecrim, Wilson Duarte; Monteiro, Wuelton Marcelo; Lacerda, Marcus Vinícius Guimarães

    2015-01-01

    In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge. PMID:26061365

  5. Cost of malaria control in China: Henan's consolidation programme from community and government perspectives.

    PubMed Central

    Jackson, Sukhan; Sleigh, Adrian C.; Liu, Xi-Li

    2002-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To assist with strategic planning for the eradication of malaria in Henan Province, China, which reached the consolidation phase of malaria control in 1992, when only 318 malaria cases were reported. METHODS: We conducted a prospective two-year study of the costs for Henan's malaria control programme. We used a cost model that could also be applied to other malaria programmes in mainland China, and analysed the cost of the three components of Henan's malaria programme: suspected malaria case management, vector surveillance, and population blood surveys. Primary cost data were collected from the government, and data on suspected malaria patients were collected in two malaria counties (population 2 093 100). We enlisted the help of 260 village doctors in six townships or former communes (population 247 762), and studied all 12 325 reported cases of suspected malaria in their catchment areas in 1994 and 1995. FINDINGS: The average annual government investment in malaria control was estimated to be US$ 111 516 (case-management 59%; active blood surveys 25%; vector surveillance 12%; and contingencies and special projects 4%). The average cost (direct and indirect) for patients seeking treatment for suspected malaria was US$ 3.48, equivalent to 10 days' income for rural residents. Each suspected malaria case cost the government an average of US$ 0.78. CONCLUSION: Further cuts in government funding will increase future costs when epidemic malaria returns; investment in malaria control should therefore continue at least at current levels of US$ 0.03 per person at risk. PMID:12219157

  6. Diagnosis of placental malaria.

    PubMed

    Mockenhaupt, Frank P; Ulmen, Ulrike; von Gaertner, Christiane; Bedu-Addo, George; Bienzle, Ulrich

    2002-01-01

    In a group of 596 delivering Ghanaian women, the sensitivities of peripheral blood thick film microscopy, ICT Malaria P.f/P.v test, and PCR in detecting microscopically confirmed placental Plasmodium falciparum infection were 42, 80, and 97%, respectively. In addition to the gross underestimation of placental malaria by peripheral blood film microscopy, submicroscopic infections were found to be a risk factor for maternal anemia.

  7. Update to the Fissile Materials Disposition program SST/SGT transportation estimation

    SciTech Connect

    John Didlake

    1999-11-15

    This report is an update to ``Fissile Materials Disposition Program SST/SGT Transportation Estimation,'' SAND98-8244, June 1998. The Department of Energy Office of Fissile Materials Disposition requested this update as a basis for providing the public with an updated estimation of the number of transportation loads, load miles, and costs associated with the preferred alternative in the Surplus Plutonium Disposition Final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS).

  8. Smolt Monitoring Program, Part I, Estimation of Survival, 1985 Annual Report.

    SciTech Connect

    Fish Passage Center

    1986-02-01

    The annual Smolt Monitoring Program is the result of implementation of Section 304(d)(2) of the Northwest Power Planning Council Fish and Wildlife Program. Survival was monitored for specific marked groups of steelhead and spring chinook. Survival through the mid-Columbia from Winthrop Hatchery and the Methow River to below Priest Rapids Dam was estimated. Estimation of survival of marked groups of steelhead from Little Goose Dam to below Ice Harbor Dam was attempted. Serious problems were evident in the Snake River survival data. A release strategy which avoids holding of control groups was tested with satisfactory results.

  9. Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia: evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites

    PubMed Central

    Streatfield, P. Kim; Khan, Wasif A.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Hanifi, Syed M.A.; Alam, Nurul; Diboulo, Eric; Sié, Ali; Yé, Maurice; Compaoré, Yacouba; Soura, Abdramane B.; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Jaeger, Fabienne; Ngoran, Eliezer K.; Utzinger, Juerg; Melaku, Yohannes A.; Mulugeta, Afework; Weldearegawi, Berhe; Gomez, Pierre; Jasseh, Momodou; Hodgson, Abraham; Oduro, Abraham; Welaga, Paul; Williams, John; Awini, Elizabeth; Binka, Fred N.; Gyapong, Margaret; Kant, Shashi; Misra, Puneet; Srivastava, Rahul; Chaudhary, Bharat; Juvekar, Sanjay; Wahab, Abdul; Wilopo, Siswanto; Bauni, Evasius; Mochamah, George; Ndila, Carolyne; Williams, Thomas N.; Hamel, Mary J.; Lindblade, Kim A.; Odhiambo, Frank O.; Slutsker, Laurence; Ezeh, Alex; Kyobutungi, Catherine; Wamukoya, Marylene; Delaunay, Valérie; Diallo, Aldiouma; Douillot, Laetitia; Sokhna, Cheikh; Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier; Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W.; Mee, Paul; Herbst, Kobus; Mossong, Joël; Chuc, Nguyen T.K.; Arthur, Samuelina S.; Sankoh, Osman A.; Tanner, Marcel; Byass, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Background Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies. Objective To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions. Design From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992–2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006–2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality. Results Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level. Conclusions The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria

  10. Computer programs for estimating aircraft takeoff performance in three dimensional space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bowles, J. V.

    1974-01-01

    A set of computer programs has been developed to estimate the takeoff and initial climb-out maneuver of a given aircraft in three-dimensional space. The program is applicable to conventional, vectored lift and power-lift concept aircraft. The aircraft is treated as a point mass flying over a flat earth with no side slip, and the rotational dynamics have been neglected. The required input is described and a sample case presented.

  11. Surveillance of imported hospital requiring malaria in Portugal: can it be improved?

    PubMed

    Fonseca, Ana Glória; Simões Dias, Sara; Baptista, João Luís; Torgal, Jorge

    2016-06-01

    Although eradicated in Portugal, malaria keeps taking its toll on travellers and migrants from endemic countries. Completeness of hospital requiring malaria notification in Portugal 2000-11 was estimated, using two-source capture-recapture method. Data sources were: national surveillance database of notifiable diseases and the national database of the Diagnosis-Related Groups resulting from National Health Service (NHS) hospital episodes. The completeness of notification was 21,2% for all malaria cases and 26,5% for malaria deaths, indicating significant underreporting and urging for complementary data source in surveillance, for disease burden estimates and retrospective monitoring, namely hospital episodes statistics.

  12. Malaria Epidemiology and Control Within the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research.

    PubMed

    Moss, William J; Dorsey, Grant; Mueller, Ivo; Laufer, Miriam K; Krogstad, Donald J; Vinetz, Joseph M; Guzman, Mitchel; Rosas-Aguirre, Angel M; Herrera, Socrates; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Chery, Laura; Kumar, Ashwani; Mohapatra, Pradyumna K; Ramanathapuram, Lalitha; Srivastava, H C; Cui, Liwang; Zhou, Guofa; Parker, Daniel M; Nankabirwa, Joaniter; Kazura, James W

    2015-09-01

    Understanding the epidemiological features and metrics of malaria in endemic populations is a key component to monitoring and quantifying the impact of current and past control efforts to inform future ones. The International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) has the opportunity to evaluate the impact of malaria control interventions across endemic regions that differ in the dominant Plasmodium species, mosquito vector species, resistance to antimalarial drugs and human genetic variants thought to confer protection from infection and clinical manifestations of plasmodia infection. ICEMR programs are conducting field studies at multiple sites with the aim of generating standardized surveillance data to improve the understanding of malaria transmission and to monitor and evaluate the impact of interventions to inform malaria control and elimination programs. In addition, these epidemiological studies provide a vast source of biological samples linked to clinical and environmental "meta-data" to support translational studies of interactions between the parasite, human host, and mosquito vector. Importantly, epidemiological studies at the ICEMR field sites are integrated with entomological studies, including the measurement of the entomological inoculation rate, human biting index, and insecticide resistance, as well as studies of parasite genetic diversity and antimalarial drug resistance.

  13. Key Aspects of the Federal Direct Loan Program's Cost Estimates: Department of Education. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Calbom, Linda M.; Ashby, Cornelia M.

    Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its cost estimates for the program,…

  14. A review of spatial technologies with applications for malaria transmission modelling and control in Africa.

    PubMed

    Gebreslasie, Michael T

    2015-01-01

    Spatial technologies, i.e. geographic information systems, remote sensing, and global positioning systems, offer an opportunity for rapid assessment of malaria endemic areas. These technologies coupled with prevalence/incidence data can provide reliable estimates of population at risk, predict disease distributions in areas that lack baseline data and provide guidance for intervention strategies, so that scarce resources can be allocated in a cost-effective manner. This review focuses on the spatial technology applications that have been used in epidemiology and control of malaria in Africa. Peer-reviewed papers identified through a PubMed search using the following keywords: geospatial technology OR Geographic Information Systems OR Remote Sensing OR Earth Observation OR Global Positioning Systems OR geospatial modelling OR malaria incidence OR malaria prevalence OR malaria risk prediction OR malaria mapping AND malaria AND Africa were used. These included mapping malaria incidence and prevalence, assessing the relationship between malaria and environmental variables as well as applications for malaria early warning systems. The potential of new spatial technology applications utilising emerging satellite information, as they hold promise to further enhance infectious risk mapping and disease prediction, are outlined. We stress current research needs to overcome some of the remaining challenges of spatial technology applications for malaria so that further and sustainable progress can be made to control and eliminate this disease.

  15. Time trend of malaria in relation to climate variability in Papua New Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Kolam, Joel; Inape, Kasis

    2016-01-01

    Objectives This study was conducted to describe the regional malaria incidence in relation to the geographic and climatic conditions and describe the effect of altitude on the expansion of malaria over the last decade in Papua New Guinea. Methods Malaria incidence was estimated in five provinces from 1996 to 2008 using national health surveillance data. Time trend of malaria incidence was compared with rainfall and minimum/maximum temperature. In the Eastern Highland Province, time trend of malaria incidence over the study period was stratified by altitude. Spatio-temporal pattern of malaria was analyzed. Results Nationwide, malaria incidence was stationary. Regionally, the incidence increased markedly in the highland region (292.0/100000/yr, p =0.021), and remained stationary in the other regions. Seasonality of the malaria incidence was related with rainfall. Decreasing incidence of malaria was associated with decreasing rainfall in the southern coastal region, whereas it was not evident in the northern coastal region. In the Eastern Highland Province, malaria incidence increased in areas below 1700 m, with the rate of increase being steeper at higher altitudes. Conclusions Increasing trend of malaria incidence was prominent in the highland region of Papua New Guinea, while long-term trend was dependent upon baseline level of rainfall in coastal regions. PMID:26987606

  16. Quantifying the impact of decay in bed-net efficacy on malaria transmission.

    PubMed

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Del Valle, Sara Y; Zhao, Ruijun; Mohammed-Awel, Jemal

    2014-12-21

    Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are at the forefront of malaria control programs and even though the percentage of households in sub-Saharan Africa that owned nets increased from 3% in 2000 to 53% in 2012, many children continue to die from malaria. The potential impact of ITNs on reducing malaria transmission is limited due to inconsistent or improper use, as well as physical decay in effectiveness. Most mathematical models for malaria transmission have assumed a fixed effectiveness rate for bed-nets, which can overestimate the impact of nets on malaria control. We develop a model for malaria spread that captures the decrease in ITN effectiveness due to physical and chemical decay, as well as human behavior as a function of time. We perform uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to identify and rank parameters that play a critical role in malaria transmission. These analyses show that the basic reproduction number R0, and the infectious human population are most sensitive to bed-net coverage and the biting rate of mosquitoes. Our results show the existence of a backward bifurcation for the case in which ITN efficacy is constant over time, which occurs for some range of parameters and is characterized by high malaria mortality in humans. This result implies that bringing R0 to less than one is not enough for malaria elimination but rather additional efforts will be necessary to control the disease. For the case in which ITN efficacy decays over time, we determine coverage levels required to control malaria for different ITN efficacies and demonstrate that ITNs with longer useful lifespans perform better in malaria control. We conclude that malaria control programs should focus on increasing bed-net coverage, which can be achieved by enhancing malaria education and increasing bed-net distribution in malaria endemic regions. PMID:25158163

  17. Challenges and Approaches for Mosquito Targeted Malaria Control

    PubMed Central

    Ramirez, José L.; Garver, Lindsey S.; Dimopoulos, George

    2010-01-01

    Malaria is one of today’s most serious diseases with an enormous socioeconomic impact. While anti-malarial drugs have existed for some time and vaccines development may be underway, the most successful malaria eradication programs have thus far relied on attacking the mosquito vector that spreads the disease causing agent Plasmodium. Here we will review past, current and future perspectives of malaria vector control strategies and how these approaches have taken a promising turn thanks recent advances in functional genomics and molecular biology. PMID:19275622

  18. Early detection and monitoring of Malaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Md Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdelhamid; Miller, Howard; Rosy, Dilara A.

    2015-05-01

    Global Earth Observation Systems of Systems (GEOSS) are bringing vital societal benefits to people around the globe. In this research article, we engage undergraduate students in the exciting area of space exploration to improve the health of millions of people globally. The goal of the proposed research is to place students in a learning environment where they will develop their problem solving skills in the context of a world crisis (e.g., malaria). Malaria remains one of the greatest threats to public health, particularly in developing countries. The World Health Organization has estimated that over one million die of Malaria each year, with more than 80% of these found in Sub-Saharan Africa. The mosquitoes transmit malaria. They breed in the areas of shallow surface water that are suitable to the mosquito and parasite development. These environmental factors can be detected with satellite imagery, which provide high spatial and temporal coverage of the earth's surface. We investigate on moisture, thermal and vegetation stress indicators developed from NOAA operational environmental satellite data. Using these indicators and collected epidemiological data, it is possible to produce a forecast system that can predict the risk of malaria for a particular geographical area with up to four months lead time. This valuable lead time information provides an opportunity for decision makers to deploy the necessary preventive measures (spraying, treated net distribution, storing medications and etc) in threatened areas with maximum effectiveness. The main objective of the proposed research is to study the effect of ecology on human health and application of NOAA satellite data for early detection of malaria.

  19. Declining incidence of imported malaria in the Netherlands, 2000-2007

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background To describe the epidemiology and trends of imported malaria in the Netherlands from 2000 through 2007. Methods Based on national surveillance data regarding all reported infections of imported malaria, diagnosed 2000 through 2007, incidence and trends of imported malaria in the Netherlands were estimated. Travellers statistics were used to estimate incidence, and data on malaria chemoprophylaxis prescriptions were used to estimate the number of unprotected travellers. Results Importation of malaria to the Netherlands is declining even as more travellers visit malaria-endemic countries. On average, 82% were acquired in sub-Saharan Africa, and 75% were caused by Plasmodium falciparum. The overall incidence in imported falciparum malaria fell from 21.5 to 6.6/10,000 of unprotected travellers. The percentage of unprotected travellers rose from 47% to 52% of all travellers. The incidence of imported falciparum infections is greatest from Middle and West Africa, and decreased from 121.3 to 36.5/10,000 travellers. The import of malaria from this region by immigrants visiting friends and relatives (VFR) decreased from 138 infections in 2000, to 69 infections in 2007. Conclusion The annual number of imported malaria shows a continuing declining trend, even with an increasing number of travellers visiting malaria endemic countries. VFR import less malaria than previously, and contribute largely to the declining incidence seen. The decline is not readily explained by increased use of chemoprophylaxis and may reflect a reduced risk of infection due to decreasing local malaria transmission as observed in some malaria endemic areas. Nevertheless, the increasing number of unprotected travellers remains worrisome. PMID:21029424

  20. The National Flood Frequency Program, version 3 : a computer program for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods for ungaged sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ries, Kernell G.; Crouse, Michele Y.

    2002-01-01

    For many years, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has been developing regional regression equations for estimating flood magnitude and frequency at ungaged sites. These regression equations are used to transfer flood characteristics from gaged to ungaged sites through the use of watershed and climatic characteristics as explanatory or predictor variables. Generally, these equations have been developed on a Statewide or metropolitan-area basis as part of cooperative study programs with specific State Departments of Transportation. In 1994, the USGS released a computer program titled the National Flood Frequency Program (NFF), which compiled all the USGS available regression equations for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in the United States and Puerto Rico. NFF was developed in cooperation with the Federal Highway Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Since the initial release of NFF, the USGS has produced new equations for many areas of the Nation. A new version of NFF has been developed that incorporates these new equations and provides additional functionality and ease of use. NFF version 3 provides regression-equation estimates of flood-peak discharges for unregulated rural and urban watersheds, flood-frequency plots, and plots of typical flood hydrographs for selected recurrence intervals. The Program also provides weighting techniques to improve estimates of flood-peak discharges for gaging stations and ungaged sites. The information provided by NFF should be useful to engineers and hydrologists for planning and design applications. This report describes the flood-regionalization techniques used in NFF and provides guidance on the applicability and limitations of the techniques. The NFF software and the documentation for the regression equations included in NFF are available at http://water.usgs.gov/software/nff.html.

  1. DDT, global strategies, and a malaria control crisis in South America.

    PubMed

    Roberts, D R; Laughlin, L L; Hsheih, P; Legters, L J

    1997-01-01

    Malaria is reemerging in endemic-disease countries of South America. We examined the rate of real growth in annual parasite indexes (API) by adjusting APIs for all years to the annual blood examination rate of 1965 for each country. The standardized APIs calculated for Brazil, Peru, Guyana, and for 18 other malaria-endemic countries of the Americas presented a consistent pattern of low rates up through the late 1970s, followed by geometric growth in malaria incidence in subsequent years. True growth in malaria incidence corresponds temporally with changes in global strategies for malaria control. Underlying the concordance of these events is a causal link between decreased spraying of homes with DDT and increased malaria; two regression models defining this link showed statistically significant negative relationships between APIs and house-spray rates. Separate analyses of data from 1993 to 1995 showed that countries that have recently discontinued their spray programs are reporting large increases in malaria incidence. Ecuador, which has increased use of DDT since 1993, is the only country reporting a large reduction (61%) in malaria rates since 1993. DDT use for malaria control and application of the Global Malaria Control Strategy to the Americas should be subjects of urgent national and international debate. We discuss the recent actions to ban DDT, the health costs of such a ban, perspectives on DDT use in agriculture versus malaria control, and costs versus benefits of DDT and alternative insecticides.

  2. A SAS/IML program using the Kalman filter for estimating state space models.

    PubMed

    Gu, Fei; Yung, Yiu-Fai

    2013-03-01

    To help disseminate the knowledge and software implementation of a state space model (SSM), this article provides a SAS/IML (SAS Institute, 2010) program for estimating the parameters of general linear Gaussian SSMs using the Kalman filter algorithm. In order to use this program, the user should have SAS installed on a computer and have a valid license for SAS/IML. Since the code is completely open, it is expected that this program can be used not only by applied researchers, but also by quantitative methodologists who are interested in improving their methods and promoting SSM as a research instrument.

  3. Budget estimates: Fiscal year 1994. Volume 3: Research and program management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1994-01-01

    The research and program management (R&PM) appropriation provides the salaries, other personnel and related costs, and travel support for NASA's civil service workforce. This FY 1994 budget funds costs associated with 23,623 full-time equivalent (FTE) work years. Budget estimates are provided for all NASA centers by categories such as space station and new technology investments, space flight programs, space science, life and microgravity sciences, advanced concepts and technology, center management and operations support, launch services, mission to planet earth, tracking and data programs, aeronautical research and technology, and safety, reliability, and quality assurance.

  4. ADEPT: a program to estimate depth to magnetic basement from sampled magnetic profiles

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Jeffrey D.

    1978-01-01

    A fortran program computes depth to magnetic basement from the spatially varying autocorrelation function of a sampled magnetic profile. The depth calculation assumes a particular form for the autocorrelation function, and this assumption is tested against the measured autocorrelation function in order to reject invalid depth estimates.

  5. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwater Ca...

  6. TH-SCORE: A Program for Obtaining Ability Estimates under Different Psychometric Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ferrando, Pere J.; Lorenzo, Urbano

    1998-01-01

    A program for obtaining ability estimates and their standard errors under a variety of psychometric models is documented. The general models considered are (1) classical test theory; (2) item factor analysis for continuous censored responses; and (3) unidimensional and multidimensional item response theory graded response models. (SLD)

  7. NATIONAL STORMWATER CALCULATOR: LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT STORMWATER CONTROL COST ESTIMATION PROGRAMMING & FUTURE ENHANCEMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    National Stormwater Calculator: Low Impact Development Stormwater Control Cost Estimation Programming & Future EnhancementsJason Berner1; Michael Tryby1; Scott Struck2, Dan Pankani2, Marion Deerhake3, Michelle Simon11. USEPA2. GeoSyntec, Inc.3. RTI, Inc.The National Stormwate...

  8. The impact of the Indonesian health card program: a matching estimator approach.

    PubMed

    Johar, Meliyanni

    2009-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness of a pro-poor nation-wide health card program, which provides free basic health care at public health facilities in Indonesia. To quantify the effect of the program, it departs from the traditional regression-based approach in the literature. It employs propensity score matching to reduce the selection bias due to non-random health card distribution. The setting of the program and the richness of the data set support this strategy in providing accurate estimates of the program's effect on its recipients. The results indicate that, in general, the health card program only has limited impact on the consumption of primary health care by its recipients. This finding suggests the presence of other factors counteracting the generous demand incentive.

  9. The treatment of malaria.

    PubMed

    White, N J

    1996-09-12

    Increasing drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum and a resurgence of malaria in tropical areas have effected a change in treatment of malaria in the last two decades. Symptoms of malaria are fever, chills, headache, and malaise. The prognosis worsens as the parasite counts, counts of mature parasites, and counts of neutrophils containing pigment increase. Treatment depends on severity, age of patient, degree of background immunity, likely pattern of susceptibility to antimalarial drugs, and the cost and availability of drugs. Chloroquine should be used for P. vivax, P. malariae, and P. ovale. P. vivax has shown high resistance to chloroquine in Oceania, however. Primaquine may be needed to treat P. vivax and P. ovale to rid the body of hypnozoites that survive in the liver. Chloroquine can treat P. falciparum infections acquired in North Africa, Central America north of the Panama Canal, Haiti, or the Middle East but not in most of Africa and some parts of Asia and South America. In areas of low grade resistance to chloroquine, amodiaquine can be used to effectively treat falciparum malaria. A combination of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine is responsive to falciparum infections with high grade resistance to chloroquine. Mefloquine, halofantrine, or quinine with tetracycline can be used to treat multidrug-resistant P. falciparum. Derivatives of artemisinin obtained from qinghao or sweet wormwood developed as pharmaceuticals in China are the most rapidly acting of all antimalarial drugs. Children tend to tolerate antimalarial drugs well. Children who weigh less than 15 kg should not be given mefloquine. Health workers should not prescribe primaquine to pregnant women or newborns due to the risk of hemolysis. Chloroquine, sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, quinine, and quinidine can be safely given in therapeutic doses throughout pregnancy. Clinical manifestations of severe malaria are hypoglycemia, convulsions, severe anemia, acute renal failure, jaundice, pulmonary edema

  10. Study of State Energy Conservation Program: 1979 energy savings indicators. [Estimated Btu's and dollars

    SciTech Connect

    1980-06-01

    This study reviewed 1979 energy savings reports provided by states for conservation measures in four major categories of State Energy Conservation Program services, namely: (1) industrial, commercial, and institutional; (2) residential; (3) thermal and lighting; and (4) transportation. Conservation measures in these categories constitute a major portion of the total estimated 1980 savings for the State Energy Conservation Program. This study only addressed measures in these categories for which usable documentation had been submitted by states. Based on a review of measures supported by available documentation, the study estimates that energy savings associated with the conservation measures reviewed were 108 TBtu's for the calendar year 1979. These estimated energy savings for 1979 were converted into 540 million dollars for 1979 and 2.8 billion dollars over the projected life of the conservation measures.

  11. Monkey malaria kills four humans.

    PubMed

    Galinski, Mary R; Barnwell, John W

    2009-05-01

    Four human deaths caused by Plasmodium knowlesi, a simian malaria species, are stimulating a surge of public health interest and clinical vigilance in vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia. We, and other colleagues, emphasize that these cases, identified in Malaysia, are a clear warning that health facilities and clinicians must rethink the diagnosis and treatment of malaria cases presumed to be caused by a less virulent human malaria species, Plasmodium malariae.

  12. Malaria and tuberculosis: our concerns.

    PubMed

    Shiva, M

    1997-01-01

    In 1978 the concept of primary health care was adopted by 116 countries at Alma Ata, yet the negative impact of structural readjustment programs in Africa and South America could be felt due to the cuts in expenditures on health, education, and social matters. The result is a resurgence of communicable diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis. Another factor in this resurgence is extreme poverty. In 1994 over 1000 people died in Rajasthan, India, of a malaria epidemic, and during the same time in Delhi over 300 deaths were attributed to hemorrhagic dengue fever. Malariogenic and tuberculous conditions continue to flourish owing to distorted development patterns and commercialization of medical care as public health and community health services are being replaced by profit-oriented curative care, 80% of which is in private hands. This has resulted in spiraling medical care costs and rural indebtedness. Socioeconomic deprivation in developing countries threatens TB control. Factors contributing to the spread of TB were established in 1899 and are still valid in India and other developing countries: TB contamination of air, inadequate food, overcrowded dwelling, and low state of physical health. Even in developed countries TB is on the rise: there were 172 cases in 1991 in England vs. 305 cases in 1993, half of them among immigrants. The increase occurred in the poorest 30% of the population. The World Bank is providing loans for a revised TB and malaria strategy, and the Disability Adjusted Life Year has been used to identify the greatest burden of diseases. On the other hand, the Indian National Health Policy has not been revised since 1983. Priority must be given to those living in extreme poverty to curb the resurgence of once controlled diseases.

  13. Impact of horizontal approach in vertical program: continuous quality improvement of malaria and tuberculosis diagnostic services at primary-level medical laboratories in the context of HIV care and treatment program in Ethiopia.

    PubMed

    Marinucci, Francesco; Manyazewal, Tsegahun; Paterniti, Antonio D; Medina-Moreno, Sandra; Wattleworth, Matthew; Hagembe, Juliana; Redfield, Robert R

    2013-03-01

    The use of standardized tools for continuous quality improvement of laboratory services is crucial to identify service gaps, plan targeted interventions, and prove successes. Laboratory quality improvement tools (LQITs) were developed and applied for 18 months at five health centers and one faith-based hospital laboratories in Southwest Showa Zone in Ethiopia to assess and monitor the quality of malaria and acid-fast bacilli (AFB) microscopy total testing processes. For the six laboratories, baseline malaria microscopy scores were 55%, 42%, 52%, 55%, 54%, and 61%. Similarly, baseline AFB microscopy scores were 49%, 41%, 46%, 58%, 44%, and 70%. On the sixth quarter for the first four laboratories and the fourth quarter for the last two laboratories, malaria microscopy scores were 89%, 88%, 88%, 90%, 88%, and 89%, whereas AFB microscopy scores were 90%, 88%, 89%, 95%, 88%, and 90%. All laboratories scored above 85% for both services at the end of interventions.

  14. Cost Estimates by Program Mechanism, Appendix K. Vol. II, A Plan for Managing the Development, Implementation and Operation of a Model Elementary Teacher Education Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cole, R. D.; Hamreus, D. G.

    This appendix presents the following tables of program component cost estimates: 1) instructional design and development; 2) instructional operations; 3) program management--policy creation and adoption, and policy and program execution; 4) program coordination--instructional objectives, adaptation, accommodation, and dissemination; 5) general…

  15. Epidemiology of Malaria in Amritsar District of India

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Vishal; Mittal, Mridula; Sharma, Vishal

    2014-01-01

    Objective Malaria is today one of the major causes of human suffering, both in terms of increasing morbidity/mortality and stunting intellectual/ economic growth. In a developing country like India, it has devastating socioeconomic consequences. The present study was therefore carried out to study the epidemiology of malaria in Amritsar district. Methods Diagnosed cases of Malaria reported from 1st January to 31st December 2009 in the erstwhile District of Amritsar were collected from the District Epidemiologist of Amritsar and Taran Taaran and studied. A total of 314 patients were studied. Data was assessed, systematically compiled and statistically analyzed. Results Most (84%) of the malaria patients in our study were less than 45 years of age. Male patients (57%) outnumbered females (43%). The majority of patients with malaria (98%) were from rural areas and 68.5% of the studied patients belonged to upper lower socioeconomical class according to Kuppuswamy socioeconomic status scale. The majority (83%) of patients took treatment from Registered Medical Practitioners/quacks. Out of the total patients, only 14% used mosquito nets, 13% used repellents, and 7% had wire gauze doors in their homes Conclusion The people living in rural areas were found to be more vulnerable to malaria. The disease was found to be more prevalent among the lower socio economic strata and young population leading to considerable adverse effect on health and economy. Our study aims to stress the estimation of the true burden of malaria. PMID:24715945

  16. Malaria: deploying a candidate vaccine (RTS,S/AS02A) for an old scourge of humankind.

    PubMed

    Alonso, Pedro L

    2006-06-01

    Malaria is an infectious disease caused by the protist Plasmodium spp. and it currently kills more than one million people annually. The burden of malaria is concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. The parasite's resistance to commonly used anti-malarial drugs has worsened the situation in the poorest countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than 100 countries suffer from endemic malaria episodes. In addition to numerous control measures and treatments, several vaccines are at different research stages and trials. We have assayed RTS,S/AS02A, a pre-erythrocytic candidate vaccine that has shown promising protection levels in phase IIb trials in Mozambique. The vaccine is directed against the sporozoite form of the parasite, which is injected by the mosquito Anopheles spp. The vaccine induces a strong antibody response and stimulates Th1 cells-a subset of helper T cells that participates in cell-mediated immunity. Recent interest by international funding agencies has provided new inputs into initiatives and programs to fight malaria, which, under normal welfare and adequate social development conditions, is a curable disease.

  17. Malaria eradication: the economic, financial and institutional challenge

    PubMed Central

    Mills, Anne; Lubell, Yoel; Hanson, Kara

    2008-01-01

    Malaria eradication raises many economic, financial and institutional challenges. This paper reviews these challenges, drawing on evidence from previous efforts to eradicate malaria, with a special focus on resource-poor settings; summarizes more recent evidence on the challenges, drawing on the literature on the difficulties of scaling-up malaria control and strengthening health systems more broadly; and explores the implications of these bodies of evidence for the current call for elimination and intensified control. Economic analyses dating from the eradication era, and more recent analyses, suggest that, in general, the benefits of malaria control outweigh the costs, though few studies have looked at the relative returns to eradication versus long-term control. Estimates of financial costs are scanty and difficult to compare. In the 1960s, the consolidation phase appeared to cost less than $1 per capita and, in 1988, was estimated to be $2.31 per capita (both in 2006 prices). More recent estimates for high coverage of control measures suggest a per capita cost of several dollars. Institutional challenges faced by malaria eradication included limits to the rule of law (a major problem where malaria was concentrated in border areas with movement of people associated with illegal activities), the existence and performance of local implementing structures, and political sustainability at national and global levels. Recent analyses of the constraints to scaling-up malaria control, together with the historical evidence, are used to discuss the economic, financial and institutional challenges that face the renewed call for eradication and intensified control. The paper concludes by identifying a research agenda covering: ∘ issues of the allocative efficiency of malaria eradication, especially using macro-economic modelling to estimate the benefits and costs of malaria eradication and intensified control, and studies of the links between malaria control and economic

  18. World malaria situation, 1988. Division of Control of Tropical Diseases.

    PubMed

    1990-01-01

    Indigenous malaria continues to occur in some 100 countries or areas. Excluding the WHO African Region where reporting is fragmentary and irregular, the trends in individual countries of the different regions vary, but an upward trend in the number of malaria cases reported in the Americas and some Asian countries, is clearly visible. Some 83% of the total number of cases reported annually to WHO (excluding the African Region) are concentrated in Afghanistan, Brazil, China, India, Mexico, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam. Within these countries malaria shows a marked focalization. Of a total world population of about 5,061 million people (1988), 2,988 million (59%) live in areas free of malaria (it never existed, disappeared or was eliminated by antimalaria campaigns and the malaria-free situation has been maintained). 1,599 million people (32%) live in areas where endemic malaria was considerably reduced or even eliminated but transmission was reinstated and the situation is unstable or deteriorating. These areas include zones with the most severe malaria problems which developed following major ecological or social changes; these zones comprise only about 1% of the world population. Areas where endemic malaria remains basically unchanged and no national anti-malaria programme was ever implemented, are inhabited by 474 million people (9%), mainly in tropical Africa. In Africa south of the Sahara, 2-7 million cases are reported each year, but by extrapolating from fever and parasite surveys one can estimate that about 90 million clinical malaria cases may occur in tropical Africa every year, and that prevalence of infection may be in the order of 250 million parasite carriers. Endemicity reaches the highest levels in the world, with very large areas classified as holoendemic. Where endemicity decreases, marked seasonality and the quasi-cyclic occurrence of heavy rains lead occasionally to epidemics or serious exacerbations of endemicity. The lack

  19. Vaccines against malaria.

    PubMed

    Hill, Adrian V S

    2011-10-12

    There is no licenced vaccine against any human parasitic disease and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, a major cause of infectious mortality, presents a great challenge to vaccine developers. This has led to the assessment of a wide variety of approaches to malaria vaccine design and development, assisted by the availability of a safe challenge model for small-scale efficacy testing of vaccine candidates. Malaria vaccine development has been at the forefront of assessing many new vaccine technologies including novel adjuvants, vectored prime-boost regimes and the concept of community vaccination to block malaria transmission. Most current vaccine candidates target a single stage of the parasite's life cycle and vaccines against the early pre-erythrocytic stages have shown most success. A protein in adjuvant vaccine, working through antibodies against sporozoites, and viral vector vaccines targeting the intracellular liver-stage parasite with cellular immunity show partial efficacy in humans, and the anti-sporozoite vaccine is currently in phase III trials. However, a more effective malaria vaccine suitable for widespread cost-effective deployment is likely to require a multi-component vaccine targeting more than one life cycle stage. The most attractive near-term approach to develop such a product is to combine existing partially effective pre-erythrocytic vaccine candidates. PMID:21893544

  20. Molecular Epidemiology of Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Conway, David J.

    2007-01-01

    Malaria persists as an undiminished global problem, but the resources available to address it have increased. Many tools for understanding its biology and epidemiology are well developed, with a particular richness of comparative genome sequences. Targeted genetic manipulation is now effectively combined with in vitro culture assays on the most important human parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, and with in vivo analysis of rodent and monkey malaria parasites in their laboratory hosts. Studies of the epidemiology, prevention, and treatment of human malaria have already been influenced by the availability of molecular methods, and analyses of parasite polymorphisms have long had useful and highly informative applications. However, the molecular epidemiology of malaria is currently undergoing its most substantial revolution as a result of the genomic information and technologies that are available in well-resourced centers. It is a challenge for research agendas to face the real needs presented by a disease that largely exists in extremely resource-poor settings, but it is one that there appears to be an increased willingness to undertake. To this end, developments in the molecular epidemiology of malaria are reviewed here, emphasizing aspects that may be current and future priorities. PMID:17223628

  1. The association between development assistance for health and malaria, HIV and tuberculosis mortality: a cross-national analysis.

    PubMed

    Hsiao, Allan J; Emdin, Connor A

    2015-03-01

    Development assistance for health (DAH) and foreign aid have been criticized for being poorly associated with health and economic outcomes on a national level. This study is an attempt to examine whether DAH targeted specifically to malaria, HIV and tuberculosis (TB) is associated with changes in malaria, HIV and TB mortality, respectively. A dataset of DAH targeted to malaria, HIV and TB and corresponding malaria-, HIV- and TB-specific mortality was compiled for 120 low- and middle-income countries. Regression analysis was performed using country and time-period fixed effects and control variables. While malaria and HIV DAH were associated with reductions in malaria and HIV mortality, respectively, TB DAH was not significantly associated with reductions in TB mortality. Estimates were consistent in various sensitivity analyses, including generalized method of moments estimation, addition of extra controls and analysis of a multiply imputed dataset. In conclusion, targeted DAH is associated with reduction of HIV and malaria mortality on a national level.

  2. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Enhancing the application of effective malaria interventions in Africa through training.

    PubMed

    Ijumba, Jasper N; Kitua, Andrew Y

    2004-08-01

    Africa bears more than 90% of the entire global malaria disease burden. Surprisingly, even with the current renewed interest in malaria prevention and control and the enabling environment resulting from the Roll Back Malaria initiative and the political commitment made by the African Presidents at the Abuja Summit, there are still no significant initiatives for strengthening capacity for malaria control through training within the African continent itself. The Center for Enhancement of Effective Malaria Interventions (CEEMI) has been established in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania for results-oriented training. It is intended to provide the needed skills for identifying and solving malaria control problems and providing incentives to malaria control workers in their work performance. The intention is to produce implementers with leadership skills for planning and managing malaria control activities and who can use strategic thinking in improving their work performance. To sustain political commitment and support and to sensitize the community on malaria issues, the CEEMI, in collaboration with the Ministry of Health (National Malaria Control Program), the Institute of Journalism and Mass Communication of the University of Dar es Salaam, and the Commonwealth Broadcasting Association have already conducted malaria seminars for Tanzanian Members of Parliament and journalists from Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additionally, a diploma course in health communication is being developed for journalists and for the same purpose. Also being developed is a training module for "Council Malaria Focal Person." This is aimed at complementing the Roll Back Malaria initiative to meet the Abuja targets of reducing morbidity and mortality due to malaria by 50% by 2010.

  4. Malaria Transmission, Infection, and Disease at Three Sites with Varied Transmission Intensity in Uganda: Implications for Malaria Control

    PubMed Central

    Kamya, Moses R.; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Wanzira, Humphrey; Katureebe, Agaba; Barusya, Chris; Kigozi, Simon P.; Kilama, Maxwell; Tatem, Andrew J.; Rosenthal, Philip J.; Drakeley, Chris; Lindsay, Steve W.; Staedke, Sarah G.; Smith, David L.; Greenhouse, Bryan; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-01-01

    The intensification of control interventions has led to marked reductions in malaria burden in some settings, but not others. To provide a comprehensive description of malaria epidemiology in Uganda, we conducted surveillance studies over 24 months in 100 houses randomly selected from each of three subcounties: Walukuba (peri-urban), Kihihi (rural), and Nagongera (rural). Annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) was estimated from monthly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap mosquito collections. Children aged 0.5–10 years were provided long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and followed for measures of parasite prevalence, anemia and malaria incidence. Estimates of aEIR were 2.8, 32.0, and 310 infectious bites per year, and estimates of parasite prevalence 7.4%, 9.3%, and 28.7% for Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera, respectively. Over the 2-year study, malaria incidence per person-years decreased in Walukuba (0.51 versus 0.31, P = 0.001) and increased in Kihihi (0.97 versus 1.93, P < 0.001) and Nagongera (2.33 versus 3.30, P < 0.001). Of 2,582 episodes of malaria, only 8 (0.3%) met criteria for severe disease. The prevalence of anemia was low and not associated with transmission intensity. In our cohorts, where LLINs and prompt effective treatment were provided, the risk of complicated malaria and anemia was extremely low. However, malaria incidence was high and increased over time at the two rural sites, suggesting improved community-wide coverage of LLIN and additional malaria control interventions are needed in Uganda. PMID:25778501

  5. Malaria transmission, infection, and disease at three sites with varied transmission intensity in Uganda: implications for malaria control.

    PubMed

    Kamya, Moses R; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Wanzira, Humphrey; Katureebe, Agaba; Barusya, Chris; Kigozi, Simon P; Kilama, Maxwell; Tatem, Andrew J; Rosenthal, Philip J; Drakeley, Chris; Lindsay, Steve W; Staedke, Sarah G; Smith, David L; Greenhouse, Bryan; Dorsey, Grant

    2015-05-01

    The intensification of control interventions has led to marked reductions in malaria burden in some settings, but not others. To provide a comprehensive description of malaria epidemiology in Uganda, we conducted surveillance studies over 24 months in 100 houses randomly selected from each of three subcounties: Walukuba (peri-urban), Kihihi (rural), and Nagongera (rural). Annual entomological inoculation rate (aEIR) was estimated from monthly Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap mosquito collections. Children aged 0.5-10 years were provided long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and followed for measures of parasite prevalence, anemia and malaria incidence. Estimates of aEIR were 2.8, 32.0, and 310 infectious bites per year, and estimates of parasite prevalence 7.4%, 9.3%, and 28.7% for Walukuba, Kihihi, and Nagongera, respectively. Over the 2-year study, malaria incidence per person-years decreased in Walukuba (0.51 versus 0.31, P = 0.001) and increased in Kihihi (0.97 versus 1.93, P < 0.001) and Nagongera (2.33 versus 3.30, P < 0.001). Of 2,582 episodes of malaria, only 8 (0.3%) met criteria for severe disease. The prevalence of anemia was low and not associated with transmission intensity. In our cohorts, where LLINs and prompt effective treatment were provided, the risk of complicated malaria and anemia was extremely low. However, malaria incidence was high and increased over time at the two rural sites, suggesting improved community-wide coverage of LLIN and additional malaria control interventions are needed in Uganda.

  6. Fatigue life estimation program for Part 23 airplanes, `AFS.FOR`

    SciTech Connect

    Kaul, S.K.

    1993-12-31

    The purpose of this paper is to introduce to the general aviation industry a computer program which estimates the safe fatigue life of any Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Part 23 airplane. The algorithm uses the methodology (Miner`s Linear Cumulative Damage Theory) and the various data presented in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Report No. AFS-120-73-2, dated May 1973. The program is written in FORTRAN 77 language and is executable on a desk top personal computer. The program prompts the user for the input data needed and provides a variety of options for its intended use. The program is envisaged to be released through issuance of a FAA report, which will contain the appropriate comments, instructions, warnings and limitations.

  7. Malaria entomological inoculation rates in western Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Rubio-Palis, Y; Wirtz, R A; Curtis, C F

    1992-12-01

    Over 61,000 anophelines collected between January 1988 and October 1989 in three villages in western Venezuela were assayed by ELISA for Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite (CS) protein. The six specimens confirmed positive belonged to three species: Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) nuneztovari Gabaldón, 1940, A. albitarsis Arribalzaga, 1878 sensu lato and A. oswaldoi (Peryassu, 1922). The estimated CS protein rate for all species combined was 0.01% (95% confidence limits 0.004-0.02%). This CS protein rate and the mean number of bites received by the collectors indicated a sporozoite inoculation rate of about 10.5 infective bites per person per year. From this value and the number of human malaria cases reported it was estimated that only 0.32% of bites by CS-positive mosquitoes led to a malaria infection. The CS protein rate is so low that this parameter would not be a practical indicator of the efficacy of control campaigns in this area.

  8. Design of asymptotic estimators: an approach based on neural networks and nonlinear programming.

    PubMed

    Alessandri, Angelo; Cervellera, Cristiano; Sanguineti, Marcello

    2007-01-01

    A methodology to design state estimators for a class of nonlinear continuous-time dynamic systems that is based on neural networks and nonlinear programming is proposed. The estimator has the structure of a Luenberger observer with a linear gain and a parameterized (in general, nonlinear) function, whose argument is an innovation term representing the difference between the current measurement and its prediction. The problem of the estimator design consists in finding the values of the gain and of the parameters that guarantee the asymptotic stability of the estimation error. Toward this end, if a neural network is used to take on this function, the parameters (i.e., the neural weights) are chosen, together with the gain, by constraining the derivative of a quadratic Lyapunov function for the estimation error to be negative definite on a given compact set. It is proved that it is sufficient to impose the negative definiteness of such a derivative only on a suitably dense grid of sampling points. The gain is determined by solving a Lyapunov equation. The neural weights are searched for via nonlinear programming by minimizing a cost penalizing grid-point constraints that are not satisfied. Techniques based on low-discrepancy sequences are applied to deal with a small number of sampling points, and, hence, to reduce the computational burden required to optimize the parameters. Numerical results are reported and comparisons with those obtained by the extended Kalman filter are made.

  9. Pyruvate kinase deficiency in mice protects against malaria.

    PubMed

    Min-Oo, Gundula; Fortin, Anny; Tam, Mi-Fong; Nantel, André; Stevenson, Mary M; Gros, Philippe

    2003-12-01

    The global health impact of malaria is enormous, with an estimated 300-500 million clinical cases and 1 million annual deaths. In humans, initial susceptibility to infection with Plasmodium species, disease severity and ultimate outcome of malaria (self-healing or lethal) are under complex genetic control. Alleles associated with sickle cell anemia, beta-thalassemia and deficiency in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase have a protective effect against malaria and may have been retained by positive selection in areas of endemic malaria. Likewise, genetic variations in erythrocyte antigens and levels of host cytokines affect type and severity of disease. A mouse model of infection with Plasmodium chabaudi was used to study the genetic component of malaria susceptibility. Segregation analyses in informative F2 crosses derived from resistant C57BL/6J and susceptible A/J, C3H and SJL strains using extent of blood stage replication of the parasite and survival as traits mapped three P. chabaudi resistance (Char) loci on chromosomes 9 (Char1), 8 (Char2) and 17 (Char3, MHC-linked). Recombinant congenic strains AcB55 and AcB61 are unusually resistant to malaria despite carrying susceptibility alleles at Char1 and Char2. Malaria resistance in AcB55 and AcB61 is associated with splenomegaly and constitutive reticulocytosis, is inherited in an autosomal recessive fashion and is controlled by a locus on chromosome 3 (Char4). Sequencing of candidate genes from the Char4 region identified a loss-of-function mutation (269T-->A, resulting in the amino acid substitution I90N) in the pyruvate kinase gene (Pklr) that underlies the malaria resistance in AcB55 and AcB61. These results suggest that pyruvate kinase deficiency may similarly protect humans against malaria. PMID:14595440

  10. Knowledge, attitudes and practices of malaria in Colombia

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Although Colombia has witnessed an important decrease in malaria transmission, the disease remains a public health problem with an estimated ~10 million people currently living in areas with malaria risk and ~61,000 cases reported in 2012. This study aimed to determine and compare the level of knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) about malaria in three endemic communities of Colombia to provide the knowledge framework for development of new intervention strategies for malaria elimination. Methods A cross-sectional KAP survey was conducted in the municipalities of Tierralta, Buenaventura and Tumaco, categorized according to high risk (HR) and moderate risk (MR) based on the annual parasite index (API). Surveys were managed using REDCap and analysed using MATLAB and GraphPad Prism. Results A total of 267 residents, mostly women (74%) were surveyed. Although no differences were observed on the knowledge of classical malaria symptoms between HR and MR regions, significant differences were found in knowledge and attitudes about transmission mechanisms, anti-malarial use and malaria diagnosis. Most responders in both regions (93.5% in MR, and 94.3% in HR areas) indicated use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) to protect themselves from malaria, and 75.5% of responders in HR indicated they did nothing to prevent malaria transmission outdoors. Despite a high level of knowledge in the study regions, significant gaps persisted relating to practices. Self-medication and poor adherence to treatment, as well as lack of both indoor and outdoor vector control measures, were significantly associated with higher malaria risk. Conclusions Although significant efforts are currently being made by the Ministry of Health to use community education as one of the main components of the control strategy, these generic education programmes may not be applicable to all endemic regions of Colombia given the substantial geographic, ethnic and cultural diversity. PMID:24885909

  11. Malaria epidemics in Europe after the First World War: the early stages of an international approach to the control of the disease.

    PubMed

    Gachelin, Gabriel; Opinel, Annick

    2011-06-01

    The severity and endemicity of malaria declined gradually in Europe until WWI. During and after the war, the number of malaria cases increased substantially and peaked in 1922-1924. This prompted the Hygiene Commission of the League of Nations to establish a Malaria Commission in 1923 to define the most efficient anti-malaria procedures. Additionally, between 1924 and 1930 there were several international meetings and collaborations concerning malaria, which involved the main institutes of parasitology and the Rockefeller Foundation. The Commission reports, the guidelines for anti-malaria campaigns and the scientific programs which came out of these meetings and collaborations are analyzed in the present paper.

  12. Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program. Operating experience with pulsed-column holdup estimators

    SciTech Connect

    Ehinger, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    Methods for estimating pulsed-column holdup are being investigated as part of the Safeguards Assessment task of the Consolidated Fuel Reprocessing Program (CFRP) at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The CFRP was a major sponsor of test runs at the Barnwell Nuclear Fuel plant (BNFP) in 1980 and 1981. During these tests, considerable measurement data were collected for pulsed columns in the plutonium purification portion of the plant. These data have been used to evaluate and compare three available methods of holdup estimation.

  13. Research toward Malaria Vaccines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Louis H.; Howard, Russell J.; Carter, Richard; Good, Michael F.; Nussenzweig, Victor; Nussenzweig, Ruth S.

    1986-12-01

    Malaria exacts a toll of disease to people in the Tropics that seems incomprehensible to those only familiar with medicine and human health in the developed world. The methods of molecular biology, immunology, and cell biology are now being used to develop an antimalarial vaccine. The Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria have many stages in their life cycle. Each stage is antigenically distinct and potentially could be interrupted by different vaccines. However, achieving complete protection by vaccination may require a better understanding of the complexities of B- and T-cell priming in natural infections and the development of an appropriate adjuvant for use in humans.

  14. Importance of adequate local spatiotemporal transmission measures in malaria cohort studies: application to the relation between placental malaria and first malaria infection in infants.

    PubMed

    Le Port, Agnès; Cottrell, Gilles; Chandre, Fabrice; Cot, Michel; Massougbodji, Achille; Garcia, André

    2013-07-01

    According to several studies, infants whose mothers had a malaria-infected placenta (MIP) at delivery are at increased risk of a first malaria infection. Immune tolerance caused by intrauterine contact with the parasite could explain this phenomenon, but it is also known that infants who are highly exposed to Anopheles mosquitoes infected with Plasmodium are at greater risk of contracting malaria. Consequently, local malaria transmission must be taken into account to demonstrate the immune tolerance hypothesis. From data collected between 2007 and 2010 on 545 infants followed from birth to age 18 months in southern Benin, we compared estimates of the effect of MIP on time to first malaria infection obtained through different Cox models. In these models, MIP was adjusted for either 1) "village-like" time-independent exposure variables or 2) spatiotemporal exposure prediction derived from local climatic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Only the use of exposure prediction improved the model's goodness of fit (Bayesian Information Criterion) and led to clear conclusions regarding the effect of placental infection, whereas the models using the village-like variables were less successful than the univariate model. This demonstrated clearly the benefit of adequately taking transmission into account in cohort studies of malaria.

  15. Aerodynamic design guidelines and computer program for estimation of subsonic wind tunnel performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eckert, W. T.; Mort, K. W.; Jope, J.

    1976-01-01

    General guidelines are given for the design of diffusers, contractions, corners, and the inlets and exits of non-return tunnels. A system of equations, reflecting the current technology, has been compiled and assembled into a computer program (a user's manual for this program is included) for determining the total pressure losses. The formulation presented is applicable to compressible flow through most closed- or open-throat, single-, double-, or non-return wind tunnels. A comparison of estimated performance with that actually achieved by several existing facilities produced generally good agreement.

  16. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of March 2013 meeting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met in Geneva, Switzerland from 13 to 15 March, 2013. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions included: a review of the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapy in Guyana and Suriname; the outcomes from a consultation on non-malaria febrile illness; the outcomes from the second meeting of the Evidence Review Group on malaria burden estimation; an update on the review of the WHO Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria; an update regarding progress on the constitution of the vector control Technical Expert Group; updates on the RTS, S/AS01 vaccine and the malaria vaccine technology roadmap; financing and resource allocation for malaria control; malaria surveillance and the need for a surveillance, monitoring and evaluation Technical Expert Group; criteria and classification related to malaria elimination; the next meeting of the Evidence Review Group on Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnancy; an update on the soon-to-be launched Elimination Scenario Planning Tool; and an update on the process for the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria Control and Elimination (2016–2025). Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:23787092

  17. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of March 2013 meeting.

    PubMed

    2013-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization met in Geneva, Switzerland from 13 to 15 March, 2013. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting.Meeting sessions included: a review of the efficacy of artemisinin-based combination therapy in Guyana and Suriname; the outcomes from a consultation on non-malaria febrile illness; the outcomes from the second meeting of the Evidence Review Group on malaria burden estimation; an update on the review of the WHO Guidelines for the Treatment of Malaria; an update regarding progress on the constitution of the vector control Technical Expert Group; updates on the RTS, S/AS01 vaccine and the malaria vaccine technology roadmap; financing and resource allocation for malaria control; malaria surveillance and the need for a surveillance, monitoring and evaluation Technical Expert Group; criteria and classification related to malaria elimination; the next meeting of the Evidence Review Group on Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnancy; an update on the soon-to-be launched Elimination Scenario Planning Tool; and an update on the process for the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria Control and Elimination (2016-2025).Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the MPAC meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.

  18. Advanced Transportation System Studies. Technical Area 3: Alternate Propulsion Subsystems Concepts. Volume 3; Program Cost Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levack, Daniel J. H.

    2000-01-01

    The objective of this contract was to provide definition of alternate propulsion systems for both earth-to-orbit (ETO) and in-space vehicles (upper stages and space transfer vehicles). For such propulsion systems, technical data to describe performance, weight, dimensions, etc. was provided along with programmatic information such as cost, schedule, needed facilities, etc. Advanced technology and advanced development needs were determined and provided. This volume separately presents the various program cost estimates that were generated under three tasks: the F- IA Restart Task, the J-2S Restart Task, and the SSME Upper Stage Use Task. The conclusions, technical results , and the program cost estimates are described in more detail in Volume I - Executive Summary and in individual Final Task Reports.

  19. [Plasmodium falciparum malaria: epidemiology and clinical features at Tarapoto Hospital].

    PubMed

    Calderon, J; Rodriguez, J; Romero, D

    1997-01-01

    A retrospective study was conducted of the clinical records of 41 patients discharged from a hospital in Tarapoto, Peru, between August 1992 and June 1996 following treatment for Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Patients ranged in age from 18 to 65 years; 25 were male. The cases were uniformly distributed throughout the year. The duration of illness averaged 11 days. At admission, 40 patients had fever, 36 had shaking chills, 29 had headache, 21 had nausea and vomiting, 21 had hyporexia, 15 had pallor, and 13 had splenomegaly. 3 of the 16 women were pregnant. 7 patients reported a history of malaria. The admission diagnosis was malaria in 33 cases. 31 patients were treated with chloroquine; 18 were subsequently treated with pyrimethamine-sulfadoxin and 1 received doxycycline. No cases of grave illness or death occurred. The increasing presence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the Peruvian lowlands should promote review of the adequacy of control programs.

  20. Malaria Related Perceptions, Care Seeking after Onset of Fever and Anti-Malarial Drug Use in Malaria Endemic Settings of Southwest Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    Birhanu, Zewdie; Abebe, Lakew; Sudhakar, Morankar; Dissanayake, Gunawardena; Yihdego, Yemane Ye-ebiyo; Alemayehu, Guda; Yewhalaw, Delenasaw

    2016-01-01

    Background Prompt care seeking and appropriate use of anti-malarial drugs are critical components of malaria prevention and control. This study assessed malaria related perceptions, care seeking behavior and anti-malarial drug use in malaria endemic settings of Ethiopia. Methods Data were generated from a community based cross-sectional study conducted among 798 households during January 2014 as part of a larger household behavioral study in three malaria endemic districts of Jimma Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Both quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed using SPSS 17.0 and STATA 12.0. Results In this study, only 76.1% of the respondents associated malaria to mosquito bite, and incorrect beliefs and perceptions were noted. Despite moderate level of knowledge (estimated mean = 62.2, Std Err = 0.7, 95% CI: 60.6–63.8%), quite high favorable attitude (overall estimated mean = 91.5, Std Err = 0.6, 95% CI: 90.1–92.9%) were recorded towards malaria preventive measures. The mean attitude score for prompt care seeking, appropriate use of anti-malarial drugs, LLIN use and Indoor Residual Spray acceptance was 98.5 (Std Err = 0.4, 95% CI:97.5–99.4), 92.7 (Std Err = 0.6 95% CI:91.5–93.9), 88.8 (Std Err = 0.5, 95% CI:85.5–92.1) and 86.5 (Std Err = 1.2, 95% CI: 83.9–89.1), respectively. The prevalence of fever was 2.9% (116/4107) and of the study participants with fever, 71.9% (95% CI: 65.5–78.3%) sought care and all of them consulted formal health care system. However, only 17 (19.8%) sought care within 24 hours after onset of fever. The frequency of care seeking was higher (77.8%, n = 21/27) and more prompt (28.6%, 6/21) for children under five as compared to old age groups despite it was not statistically significant (p > 0.05). However, higher median time of seeking first care was observed among Muslims and people who did not attend school (p < 0.05). Of those who used anti-malarial drugs, 9.1% indicated that they used it inappropriately

  1. etas_solve: A robust program to estimate the ETAS parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Y.; Kasahara, A.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model introduced by Ogata (1988) has been widely used to quantitatively describe seismicity (e.g. Ogata, 1992; Llenos et al., 2009). However, only a few programs for estimation of the ETAS parameters are publicly available, and it is difficult to automatically apply some of them to observed data due to initial value dependence (e.g. Ogata, 2006). A robust ETAS estimation program is required to meet the recent enhancement of earthquake catalogs. In this study, we developed a new program, etas_solve, that is based on Newton's method and calculates exact gradient and Hessian by using the automatic differentiation technique (Griewank, 1989). The program also supports auxiliary window in time and magnitude (Wang et al., 2010).To demonstrate robustness of the developed program, we tested the dependence of estimated parameters on the choice of initial value by running the program from 1,024 randomly chosen initial values, and then compared the results with that of SAPP (Ogata 2006). We used aftershock data of 26th July 2003 earthquake of M6.2 at the northern Miyagi japan, which is shipped with SAPP, as a testing data. We found that estimation values with etas_solve were independent of the initial value for the testing data, while that with SAPP were varied with the initial value. Although there was initial value dependence in the SAPP's results, the estimated values by SAPP with small (≤10-5) gradient coincided with the solution by etas_solve. etas_solve took longer computation time per iteration than SAPP due to the exact Hessian calculation, but total execution time was comparable to that of SAPP since less number of iterations for convergence was required. In addition, etas_solve was faster than SAPP on multicore machines (around 8-fold speed up with a 16 core machine) since etas_solve is parallelized by OpenMP.etas_solve is written in Fortran and distributed under GNU General Public License at https

  2. Knowledge, Attitude and Practices on Malaria Among the Rural Communities in Aliero, Northern Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Rupashree; Musa, Jamila; Singh, Sanjay; Ebere, Ukatu Victoria

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Families' perceptions, beliefs, and attitudes about malaria causation, symptom identification, treatment of malaria, and prevention are often overlooked in malaria control efforts. This study was conducted to understand these issues, which can be an important step towards developing strategies, aimed at controlling malaria. Materials and Methods: A community based descriptive cross-sectional study in four villages: Danwarai, Gehuru, Jiga, and Kashin Zama of Aliero local government area in Kebbi Sate, in northern Nigeria. Two hundred household were randomly selected and interviewed using standardized questionnaire. Results: Knowledge of the role of mosquitoes in malaria transmission (11.8%) and cause of malaria (9.6%) was observed to be low among the study population. Comprehensive knowledge about malaria prevention measures was high (90%), but not reflecting in their practice (16%). They have good knowledge of mosquito behavior (breeding areas (64.5%), resting places (70%) and biting time (81%)). Seeking hospital care for a febrile child was a good practice (68.5%) observed. Attitudes regarding the best antimalarial therapy was limited (56.7%) to chloroquine. Conclusions: Misconceptions about malaria transmission and its cause still exist. Knowledge about preventive measures does not necessarily translate into improvement in practices. There is a need for targeted educational programs to increase the communities' efforts to develop desirable attitude and practices regarding malaria and their participation for malaria control. PMID:24791235

  3. RENEW v3.2 user's manual, maintenance estimation simulation for Space Station Freedom Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bream, Bruce L.

    1993-01-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP). This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) and logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. The simulation uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The simulation has been in use by the SSFP Work Package 4 prime contractor, Rocketdyne, since January 1991. The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair than steady state average calculations. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values. Graphs of failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences are generated. The averages demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in a data file for further use by spreadsheets or other programs. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval. The parameters may be viewed and changed after entry using RENEW. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen.

  4. EGADS: A microcomputer program for estimating the aerodynamic performance of general aviation aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Melton, John E.

    1994-01-01

    EGADS is a comprehensive preliminary design tool for estimating the performance of light, single-engine general aviation aircraft. The software runs on the Apple Macintosh series of personal computers and assists amateur designers and aeronautical engineering students in performing the many repetitive calculations required in the aircraft design process. The program makes full use of the mouse and standard Macintosh interface techniques to simplify the input of various design parameters. Extensive graphics, plotting, and text output capabilities are also included.

  5. Information systems to support surveillance for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Ohrt, Colin; Roberts, Kathryn W; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Lee, Bruce Y; Gosling, Roly D

    2015-07-01

    Robust and responsive surveillance systems are critical for malaria elimination. The ideal information system that supports malaria elimination includes: rapid and complete case reporting, incorporation of related data, such as census or health survey information, central data storage and management, automated and expert data analysis, and customized outputs and feedback that lead to timely and targeted responses. Spatial information enhances such a system, ensuring cases are tracked and mapped over time. Data sharing and coordination across borders are vital and new technologies can improve data speed, accuracy, and quality. Parts of this ideal information system exist and are in use, but have yet to be linked together coherently. Malaria elimination programs should support the implementation and refinement of information systems to support surveillance and response and ensure political and financial commitment to maintain the systems and the human resources needed to run them. National malaria programs should strive to improve the access and utility of these information systems and establish cross-border data sharing mechanisms through the use of standard indicators for malaria surveillance. Ultimately, investment in the information technologies that support a timely and targeted surveillance and response system is essential for malaria elimination. PMID:26013378

  6. Evaluating the usefulness of paratransgenesis for malaria control.

    PubMed

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2016-07-01

    Malaria is a serious global health problem which is especially devastating to the developing world. Most malaria control programs use insecticides for controlling mosquito populations. Large scale usage of these insecticides exerts massive selection pressure on mosquitoes resulting in insecticide resistant mosquito breeds. Thus, developing alternative strategies are crucial for sustainable malaria control. Here, we explore the usefulness of an alternative strategy, paratransgenesis: the introduction of genetically engineered plasmodium killing bacteria inside the mosquito gut. The genetically modified bacterial culture is housed in cotton balls dipped in a sugar solution (sugar bait) and they enter a mosquito's midgut when it drinks from a sugar bait. We study scenarios where vectors and hosts mix homogeneously as well as heterogeneously and calculate the amount of baits required to prevent a malaria outbreak. Given the baits are attractive, we show that the basic reproductive number drops rapidly with the increase in bait density. Furthermore, we propose a targeted bait distribution strategy for minimizing the reproductive number for the heterogeneous case. Our results can prove to be useful for designing future experiments and field trials of alternative malaria control mechanisms and they also have implications on the development of malaria control programs. PMID:27140529

  7. Information Systems to Support Surveillance for Malaria Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Ohrt, Colin; Roberts, Kathryn W.; Sturrock, Hugh J. W.; Wegbreit, Jennifer; Lee, Bruce Y.; Gosling, Roly D.

    2015-01-01

    Robust and responsive surveillance systems are critical for malaria elimination. The ideal information system that supports malaria elimination includes: rapid and complete case reporting, incorporation of related data, such as census or health survey information, central data storage and management, automated and expert data analysis, and customized outputs and feedback that lead to timely and targeted responses. Spatial information enhances such a system, ensuring cases are tracked and mapped over time. Data sharing and coordination across borders are vital and new technologies can improve data speed, accuracy, and quality. Parts of this ideal information system exist and are in use, but have yet to be linked together coherently. Malaria elimination programs should support the implementation and refinement of information systems to support surveillance and response and ensure political and financial commitment to maintain the systems and the human resources needed to run them. National malaria programs should strive to improve the access and utility of these information systems and establish cross-border data sharing mechanisms through the use of standard indicators for malaria surveillance. Ultimately, investment in the information technologies that support a timely and targeted surveillance and response system is essential for malaria elimination. PMID:26013378

  8. Climate Change and Vector-borne Diseases: An Economic Impact Analysis of Malaria in Africa

    PubMed Central

    Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Musumba, Mark; McCarl, Bruce A.; Wu, Ximing

    2011-01-01

    A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%. PMID:21556186

  9. Investigating the Important Correlates of Maternal Education and Childhood Malaria Infections

    PubMed Central

    Njau, Joseph D.; Stephenson, Rob; Menon, Manoj P.; Kachur, S. Patrick; McFarland, Deborah A.

    2014-01-01

    The relationship between maternal education and child health has intrigued researchers for decades. This study explored the interaction between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. Cross-sectional survey data from three African countries were used. Descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were completed in line with identified correlates. Marginal effects and Oaxaca decomposition analysis on maternal education and childhood malaria infection were also estimated. Children with mothers whose education level was beyond primary school were 4.7% less likely to be malaria-positive (P < 0.001). The Oaxaca decomposition analysis exhibited an 8% gap in childhood malaria infection for educated and uneducated mothers. Over 60% of the gap was explained by differences in household wealth (26%), household place of domicile (21%), malaria transmission intensities (14%), and media exposure (12%). All other correlates accounted for only 27%. The full adjusted model showed a robust and significant relationship between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. PMID:25002302

  10. Investigating the important correlates of maternal education and childhood malaria infections.

    PubMed

    Njau, Joseph D; Stephenson, Rob; Menon, Manoj P; Kachur, S Patrick; McFarland, Deborah A

    2014-09-01

    The relationship between maternal education and child health has intrigued researchers for decades. This study explored the interaction between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. Cross-sectional survey data from three African countries were used. Descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were completed in line with identified correlates. Marginal effects and Oaxaca decomposition analysis on maternal education and childhood malaria infection were also estimated. Children with mothers whose education level was beyond primary school were 4.7% less likely to be malaria-positive (P < 0.001). The Oaxaca decomposition analysis exhibited an 8% gap in childhood malaria infection for educated and uneducated mothers. Over 60% of the gap was explained by differences in household wealth (26%), household place of domicile (21%), malaria transmission intensities (14%), and media exposure (12%). All other correlates accounted for only 27%. The full adjusted model showed a robust and significant relationship between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. PMID:25002302

  11. 2002 status report: Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R) voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla; Koomey, Jonathan

    2003-03-03

    ENERGY STAR [registered trademark] is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2001, what we expect in 2002, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2002 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  12. 2003 status report savings estimates for the energy star(R)voluntary labeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

    2004-11-09

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2002, what we expect in 2003, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2003 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  13. Savings estimates for the ENERGY STAR (registered trademark) voluntary labeling program: 2001 status report

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Mahajan, Akshay; Koomey, Jonathan G.

    2002-02-15

    ENERGY STAR(Registered Trademark) is a voluntary labeling program designed to identify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices. Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more than thirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating and cooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics, and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subset of ENERGY STAR program activities, focused primarily on labeled products. We present estimates of the energy, dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2000, what we expect in 2001, and provide savings forecasts for two market penetration scenarios for the period 2001 to 2020. The target market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of future ENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goals for each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumption of 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasers buy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiency products throughout the analysis period.

  14. Estimating development cost for a tailored interactive computer program to enhance colorectal cancer screening compliance.

    PubMed

    Lairson, David R; Chang, Yu-Chia; Bettencourt, Judith L; Vernon, Sally W; Greisinger, Anthony

    2006-01-01

    The authors used an actual-work estimate method to estimate the cost of developing a tailored interactive computer education program to improve compliance with colorectal cancer screening guidelines in a large multi-specialty group medical practice. Resource use was prospectively collected from time logs, administrative records, and a design and computing subcontract. Sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the uncertainty of the overhead cost rate and other parameters. The cost of developing the system was Dollars 328,866. The development cost was Dollars 52.79 per patient when amortized over a 7-year period with a cohort of 1,000 persons. About 20% of the cost was incurred in defining the theoretic framework and supporting literature, constructing the variables and survey, and conducting focus groups. About 41% of the cost was for developing the messages, algorithms, and constructing program elements, and the remaining cost was to create and test the computer education program. About 69% of the cost was attributable to personnel expenses. Development cost is rarely estimated but is important for feasibility studies and ex-ante economic evaluations of alternative interventions. The findings from this study may aid decision makers in planning, assessing, budgeting, and pricing development of tailored interactive computer-based interventions. PMID:16799126

  15. Estimation of species richness and parameters reflecting community dynamics using data from ecological monitoring programs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Hines, J.E.; Boulinier, T.; Pollock, K.H.; Therres, Glenn D.

    2001-01-01

    Although many ecological monitoring programs are now in place, the use of resulting data to draw inferences about changes in biodiversity is problematic. The difficulty arises because of the inability to count all animals present in any sampled area. This inability results not only in underestimation of species richness but also in potentially misleading comparisons of species richness over time and space. We recommend the use of probabilistic estimators for estimating species richness and related parameters (e.g., rate of change in species richness, local extinction probability, local turnover, local colonization) when animal detection probabilities are <1. We illustrate these methods using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey obtained along survey routes in Maryland. We also introduce software to implement these estimation methods.

  16. Daily values flow comparison and estimates using program HYCOMP, version 1.0

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanders, Curtis L.

    2002-01-01

    A method used by the U.S. Geological Survey for quality control in computing daily value flow records is to compare hydrographs of computed flows at a station under review to hydrographs of computed flows at a selected index station. The hydrographs are placed on top of each other (as hydrograph overlays) on a light table, compared, and missing daily flow data estimated. This method, however, is subjective and can produce inconsistent results, because hydrographers can differ when calculating acceptable limits of deviation between observed and estimated flows. Selection of appropriate index stations also is judgemental, giving no consideration to the mathematical correlation between the review station and the index station(s). To address the limitation of the hydrograph overlay method, a set of software programs, written in the SAS macrolanguage, was developed and designated Program HYDCOMP. The program automatically selects statistically comparable index stations by correlation and regression, and performs hydrographic comparisons and estimates of missing data by regressing daily mean flows at the review station against -8 to +8 lagged flows at one or two index stations and day-of-week. Another advantage that HYDCOMP has over the graphical method is that estimated flows, the criteria for determining the quality of the data, and the selection of index stations are determined statistically, and are reproducible from one user to another. HYDCOMP will load the most-correlated index stations into another file containing the ?best index stations,? but will not overwrite stations already in the file. A knowledgeable user should delete unsuitable index stations from this file based on standard error of estimate, hydrologic similarity of candidate index stations to the review station, and knowledge of the individual station characteristics. Also, the user can add index stations not selected by HYDCOMP, if desired. Once the file of best-index stations is created, a user may

  17. Seasonal performance of a malaria rapid diagnosis test at community health clinics in a malaria-hyperendemic region of Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Backgound Treatment of confirmed malaria patients with Artemisinin-based Combination Therapy (ACT) at remote areas is the goal of many anti-malaria programs. Introduction of effective and affordable malaria Rapid Diagnosis Test (RDT) in remote areas could be an alternative tool for malaria case management. This study aimed to assess performance of the OptiMAL dipstick for rapid malaria diagnosis in children under five. Methods Malaria symptomatic and asymptomatic children were recruited in a passive manner in two community clinics (CCs). Malaria diagnosis by microscopy and RDT were performed. Performance of the tests was determined. Results RDT showed similar ability (61.2%) to accurately diagnose malaria as microscopy (61.1%). OptiMAL showed a high level of sensitivity and specificity, compared with microscopy, during both transmission seasons (high & low), with a sensitivity of 92.9% vs. 74.9% and a specificity of 77.2% vs. 87.5%. Conclusion By improving the performance of the test through accurate and continuous quality control of the device in the field, OptiMAL could be suitable for use at CCs for the management and control of malaria. PMID:22647557

  18. Assessment of Burden of Malaria in Gwanda District, Zimbabwe, Using the Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    PubMed

    Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2016-02-01

    Malaria is one of the highest contributors to morbidity and mortality in Zimbabwe. However, there is paucity of knowledge regarding disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of burden of malaria in affected communities. The DALYs metric was used to assess the burden of malaria in Gwanda District with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the impact of disease on affected communities. Data was collected from health facility malaria registers and the District Health Information System (DHIS) to estimate DALYs at household and district levels respectively. The household DALYs included 130 malaria cases from 2013 to 2015 while the DALYs for the district included 719 confirmed malaria cases from 2011 to 2015. Households lost a total of 153.89 DALYs with the majority of the disease burden (65.55%) occurring in the most economically productive age group (15-45 years) with a mean loss of 1.18 DALYs per malaria case. At district level, 251.09 DALYs were lost due to malaria and the calculated average district DALY rate for 2011-2015 was 36.29 DALYs/100,000 persons per year. It is important to estimate malaria burden to assist policy makers in making informed decisions when channelling resources for control and prevention of the disease. PMID:26907320

  19. Assessment of Burden of Malaria in Gwanda District, Zimbabwe, Using the Disability Adjusted Life Years.

    PubMed

    Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2016-02-22

    Malaria is one of the highest contributors to morbidity and mortality in Zimbabwe. However, there is paucity of knowledge regarding disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of burden of malaria in affected communities. The DALYs metric was used to assess the burden of malaria in Gwanda District with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the impact of disease on affected communities. Data was collected from health facility malaria registers and the District Health Information System (DHIS) to estimate DALYs at household and district levels respectively. The household DALYs included 130 malaria cases from 2013 to 2015 while the DALYs for the district included 719 confirmed malaria cases from 2011 to 2015. Households lost a total of 153.89 DALYs with the majority of the disease burden (65.55%) occurring in the most economically productive age group (15-45 years) with a mean loss of 1.18 DALYs per malaria case. At district level, 251.09 DALYs were lost due to malaria and the calculated average district DALY rate for 2011-2015 was 36.29 DALYs/100,000 persons per year. It is important to estimate malaria burden to assist policy makers in making informed decisions when channelling resources for control and prevention of the disease.

  20. Assessment of Burden of Malaria in Gwanda District, Zimbabwe, Using the Disability Adjusted Life Years

    PubMed Central

    Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is one of the highest contributors to morbidity and mortality in Zimbabwe. However, there is paucity of knowledge regarding disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of burden of malaria in affected communities. The DALYs metric was used to assess the burden of malaria in Gwanda District with the aim of contributing to a better understanding of the impact of disease on affected communities. Data was collected from health facility malaria registers and the District Health Information System (DHIS) to estimate DALYs at household and district levels respectively. The household DALYs included 130 malaria cases from 2013 to 2015 while the DALYs for the district included 719 confirmed malaria cases from 2011 to 2015. Households lost a total of 153.89 DALYs with the majority of the disease burden (65.55%) occurring in the most economically productive age group (15–45 years) with a mean loss of 1.18 DALYs per malaria case. At district level, 251.09 DALYs were lost due to malaria and the calculated average district DALY rate for 2011–2015 was 36.29 DALYs/100,000 persons per year. It is important to estimate malaria burden to assist policy makers in making informed decisions when channelling resources for control and prevention of the disease. PMID:26907320

  1. Mapping malaria incidence distribution that accounts for environmental factors in Maputo Province - Mozambique

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The objective was to study if an association exists between the incidence of malaria and some weather parameters in tropical Maputo province, Mozambique. Methods A Bayesian hierarchical model to malaria count data aggregated at district level over a two years period is formulated. This model made it possible to account for spatial area variations. The model was extended to include environmental covariates temperature and rainfall. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: rainy and dry seasons. The incidences of malaria between the two seasons were compared. Parameter estimation and inference were carried out using MCMC simulation techniques based on Poisson variation. Model comparisons are made using DIC. Results For winter season, in 2001 the temperature covariate with estimated value of -8.88 shows no association to malaria incidence. In year 2002, the parameter estimation of the same covariate resulted in 5.498 of positive level of association. In both years rainfall covariate determines no dependency to malaria incidence. Malaria transmission is higher in wet season with both covariates positively related to malaria with posterior means 1.99 and 2.83 in year 2001. For 2002 only temperature is associated to malaria incidence with estimated value 2.23. Conclusions The incidence of malaria in year 2001, presents an independent spatial pattern for temperature in summer and for rainfall in winter seasons respectively. In year 2002 temperature determines the spatial pattern of malaria incidence in the region. Temperature influences the model in cases where both covariates are introduced in winter and summer season. Its influence is extended to the summer model with temperature covariate only. It is reasonable to state that with the occurrence of high temperatures, malaria incidence had certainly escalated in this year. PMID:20302674

  2. The Long-Term Economic Impact of in Utero and Postnatal Exposure to Malaria

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barreca, Alan I.

    2010-01-01

    I use an instrumental-variables identification strategy and historical data from the United States to estimate the long-term economic impact of in utero and postnatal exposure to malaria. My research design matches adults in the 1960 Decennial Census to the malaria death rate in their respective state and year of birth. To address potential…

  3. The dynamics of malaria.

    PubMed

    Macdonald, G; Cuellar, C B; Foll, C V

    1968-01-01

    Previous studies on dynamic systems of transmission of malaria, and of eradication of infection following the interruption of transmission, have now been adapted for advanced techniques using the facilities offered by computers.The computer programmes have been designed for a deterministic model suitable for a large community and also for a stochastic model relevant to small populations in which infections reach very low finite numbers. In this model, new infections and recoveries are assessed by the daily inoculation rate and are subject to laws of chance. Such a representation is closer than previous models to natural happenings in the process of malaria eradication. Further refinements of the new approach include the seasonal transmission and simulation of mass chemotherapy aimed at a cure of P. falciparum infections.These programmes present models on which the actual or expected results of changes due to various factors can be studied by the analysis of specific malaria situations recorded in the field. The value of control methods can also be tested by the study of such hypothetical epidemiological models and by trying out various procedures.Two specific malaria situations (in a pilot project in Northern Nigeria and in an outbreak in Syria) were studied by this method and provided some interesting results of operational value. The attack measures in the pilot project in Northern Nigeria were carried out according to the theoretical model derived from the basic data obtained in the field. PMID:5303328

  4. Malaria Risk in Travelers

    PubMed Central

    Askling, Helena Hervius; Nilsson, Jenny; Tegnell, Anders; Janzon, Ragnhild

    2005-01-01

    Imported malaria has been an increasing problem in several Western countries in the last 2 decades. To calculate the risk factors of age, sex, and travel destination in Swedish travelers, we used data from the routine reporting system for malaria (mixture of patients with and without adequate prophylaxis), a database on travel patterns, and in-flight or visa data on Swedish travelers of 1997 to 2003. The crude risk for travelers varied from 1 per 100,000 travelers to Central America and the Caribbean to 357 per 100,000 in central Africa. Travelers to East Africa had the highest adjusted odds ratio (OR = 341; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 134–886) for being reported with malaria, closely followed by travelers to central Africa and West Africa. Male travelers as well as children <1–6 years of age had a higher risk of being reported with malaria (OR = 1,7; 95% CI 1.3–2.3 and OR = 4,8; 95%CI 1.5–14.8) than women and other age groups. PMID:15757560

  5. [Challenges of the medical entomology for the surveillance in public health in Colombia: reflections on the state of malaria].

    PubMed

    Brochero, Helena; Quiñones, Martha L

    2008-03-01

    The relevance of the medical entomology was considered with respect to current framework of malaria control programs in Colombia. A responsibility is indicated for balancing control efforts along with providing information on the malaria vectors. This knowledge must be acquired in order to focus the related activities that are required. The malaria control program must be based on results of local entomological surveillance, and the data must be in a form to give practical answers to questions regarding the control program. Difficulties in undertaking the required studies are described, particularly regarding the taxonomic identification of Colombian Anopheles in Colombia and which of these can be incriminated as malaria vectors.

  6. The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present, and future

    PubMed Central

    Hay, Simon I; Guerra, Carlos A; Tatem, Andrew J; Noor, Abdisalan M; Snow, Robert W

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this review was to use geographic information systems in combination with historical maps to quantify the anthropogenic impact on the distribution of malaria in the 20th century. The nature of the cartographic record enabled global and regional patterns in the spatial limits of malaria to be investigated at six intervals between 1900 and 2002. Contemporaneous population surfaces also allowed changes in the numbers of people living in areas of malaria risk to be quantified. These data showed that during the past century, despite human activities reducing by half the land area supporting malaria, demographic changes resulted in a 2 billion increase in the total population exposed to malaria risk. Furthermore, stratifying the present day malaria extent by endemicity class and examining regional differences highlighted that nearly 1 billion people are exposed to hypoendemic and mesoendemic malaria in southeast Asia. We further concluded that some distortion in estimates of the regional distribution of malaria burden could have resulted from different methods used to calculate burden in Africa. Crude estimates of the national prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection based on endemicity maps corroborate these assertions. Finally, population projections for 2010 were used to investigate the potential effect of future demographic changes. These indicated that although population growth will not substantially change the regional distribution of people at malaria risk, around 400 million births will occur within the boundary of current distribution of malaria by 2010: the date by which the Roll Back Malaria initiative is challenged to halve the world’s malaria burden. PMID:15172341

  7. ANALOG: a program for estimating paleoclimate parameters using the method of modern analogs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweitzer, Peter N.

    1994-01-01

    modern samples, the modern analogs of the fossil sample. This report describes how to use the program ANALOG to carry out the method of modern analogs. It is assumed that the user has faunal census estimates of one or more fossil samples, and one or more sets of faunal data from modern samples. Furthermore, the user must understand the taxonomic categories represented in the data sets, and be able to recognize taxa that are or may be considered equivalent in the analysis. ANALOG provides the user with flexibility in input data format, output data content, and choice of distance measure, and allows the user to determine which taxa from each modern and fossil data file are compared. Most of the memory required by the program is allocated dynamically, so that, on systems that permit program segments to grow, the program consumes only as many system resources as are needed to accomplish its task.

  8. The incidence of malaria in travellers to South-East Asia: is local malaria transmission a useful risk indicator?

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background The presence of ongoing local malaria transmission, identified though local surveillance and reported to regional WHO offices, by S-E Asian countries, forms the basis of national and international chemoprophylaxis recommendations in western countries. The study was designed to examine whether the strategy of using malaria transmission in a local population was an accurate estimate of the malaria threat faced by travellers and a correlate of malaria in returning travellers. Methods Malaria endemicity was described from distribution and intensity in the local populations of ten S-E Asian destination countries over the period 2003-2008 from regionally reported cases to WHO offices. Travel acquired malaria was collated from malaria surveillance reports from the USA and 12 European countries over the same period. The numbers of travellers visiting the destination countries was based on immigration and tourism statistics collected on entry of tourists to the destination countries. Results In the destination countries, mean malaria rates in endemic countries ranged between 0.01 in Korea to 4:1000 population per year in Lao PDR, with higher regional rates in a number of countries. Malaria cases imported into the 13 countries declined by 47% from 140 cases in 2003 to 66 in 2008. A total of 608 cases (27.3% Plasmodium falciparum (Pf)) were reported over the six years, the largest number acquired in Indonesia, Thailand and Korea. Four countries had an incidence > 1 case per 100,000 traveller visits; Burma (Myanmar), Indonesia, Cambodia and Laos (range 1 to 11.8-case per 100,000 visits). The remaining six countries rates were < 1 case per 100,000 visits. The number of visitors arriving from source countries increased by 60% from 8.5 Million to 13.6 million over the 6 years. Conclusion The intensity of malaria transmission particularly sub-national activity did not correlate with the risk of travellers acquiring malaria in the large numbers of arriving visitors. It

  9. Impact of red blood cell variants on childhood malaria in Mali: a prospective cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Lopera-Mesa, Tatiana M; Doumbia, Saibou; Konaté, Drissa; Anderson, Jennifer M; Doumbouya, Mory; Keita, Abdoul S; Diakité, Seidina AS; Traoré, Karim; Krause, Michael A; Diouf, Ababacar; Moretz, Samuel E; STullo, Gregory; Miura, Kazutoyo; Gu, Wenjuan; Fay, Michael P; Taylor, Steve M; Long, Carole A; Diakité, Mahamadou; Fairhurst, Rick M

    2015-01-01

    Summary Background Red blood cell (RBC) variants protect African children from severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Their individual and interactive impacts on mild disease and parasite density, and their modification by age-dependent immunity, are poorly understood. Methods We conducted a 4-year, prospective cohort study of children aged 0.5–17 years in Maliin 2008-2011. Exposures were haemoglobin S (HbS), HbC, α-thalassaemia, ABO blood groups, and glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)deficiency encoded by the X-linked A- allele. Primary and secondary outcomes were malaria incidence and parasite density. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were modeled with quasi-Poisson regression; parasite densities were analyzed with Generalized Estimating Equations. Findings We diagnosed 4091 malaria episodes in 1543 children over 2656 child-years of follow-up (cyfu). RBC variants were common: HbAS 14.2%, HbAC 6.7%, α-thalassaemia 28.4%, type O blood group 40.2%, and G6PD deficiency9.4% (boys) and 20.4% (girls). Malaria incidence was 1.54 episodes/cyfu, ranged from 2.78 at age 3 to 0.40 at age 16 years, was reduced 34% in HbAS vs HbAA children (adjusted IRR [aIRR] 0.66; 95% CI 0.59-0.75) and 49% in G6PD A-/A- vs A+/A+ girls (aIRR 0.51; 95% CI 0.29-0.90), but was increased 15% in HbAC children (aIRR 1.15; 95% CI 1.01-1.32). Parasite density was reduced in HbAS vs HbAA children (median 10,550 vs 15, 150 parasites/μL; p=0.0004). HbAS-associated reductions in malaria risk and parasite density were greatest in early childhood. Interpretation Individual and interactive impacts of HbAS, HbAC, and G6PD A-/A-on malaria risk and parasite density define clinical and cellular correlates of protection. Further identification of the molecular mechanisms of these protective effects may uncover novel targets for intervention. Funding Intramural Research Program, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health. PMID:26687956

  10. Nanomedicine against malaria.

    PubMed

    Urbán, Patricia; Fernàndez-Busquets, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is arguably one of the main medical concerns worldwide because of the numbers of people affected, the severity of the disease and the complexity of the life cycle of its causative agent, the protist Plasmodium sp. The clinical, social and economic burden of malaria has led for the last 100 years to several waves of serious efforts to reach its control and eventual eradication, without success to this day. With the advent of nanoscience, renewed hopes have appeared of finally obtaining the long sought-after magic bullet against malaria in the form of a nanovector for the targeted delivery of antimalarial drugs exclusively to Plasmodium-infected cells. Different types of encapsulating structure, targeting molecule, and antimalarial compound will be discussed for the assembly of Trojan horse nanocapsules capable of targeting with complete specificity diseased cells and of delivering inside them their antimalarial cargo with the objective of eliminating the parasite with a single dose. Nanotechnology can also be applied to the discovery of new antimalarials through single-molecule manipulation approaches for the identification of novel drugs targeting essential molecular components of the parasite. Finally, methods for the diagnosis of malaria can benefit from nanotools applied to the design of microfluidic-based devices for the accurate identification of the parasite's strain, its precise infective load, and the relative content of the different stages of its life cycle, whose knowledge is essential for the administration of adequate therapies. The benefits and drawbacks of these nanosystems will be considered in different possible scenarios, including cost-related issues that might be hampering the development of nanotechnology-based medicines against malaria with the dubious argument that they are too expensive to be used in developing areas.

  11. The Cost of Crime to Society: New Crime-Specific Estimates for Policy and Program Evaluation

    PubMed Central

    French, Michael T.; Fang, Hai

    2010-01-01

    Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than ten years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost of society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields cost estimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime cost estimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime. PMID:20071107

  12. Multi-scale experimental programs for estimating groundwater recharge in hydrologically changing basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McIntyre, Neil; Larsen, Josh; Reading, Lucy; Bulovic, Nevenka; Jarihani, Abdollah; Finch, Warren

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater recharge estimates are required to evaluate sustainable groundwater abstractions and to support groundwater impacts assessments associated with minerals and energy extraction. Increasingly, recharge estimates are also needed for regional and global scale water cycle modelling. This is especially the case in the great arid and semi-arid basins of the world due to increased water scarcity and dependence of ecosystems and livelihoods on their water supplies, and the considerable potential influence of groundwater on the hydrological cycle. Groundwater resources in the semi-arid Surat Basin of south-east Queensland, Australia, support extensive groundwater-dependent ecosystems and have historically been utilised for regional agriculture and urban water-use. Large volumes of water are currently being produced and will continue to do so as a part of coal seam gas extraction. There is considerable uncertainty about the impacts of gas extraction on water resources and the hydrological cycle, and much of this uncertainty stems from our limited knowledge about recharge processes and how to upscale them. Particular questions are about the role of storm events in controlling annual recharge, the relative contributions of local 'recharge zones' versus diffuse recharge and the translation of (relatively easily quantified) shallow drainage estimates to groundwater recharge. A multi-scale recharge research program is addressing these questions, using multiple approaches in estimating groundwater recharge, including plot and catchment scale monitoring, use of remote sensed data and simulation models. Results during the first year of the program have resulted in development of process hypotheses and experimental designs at three field sites representing key gaps in knowledge. The presentation will overview the process of designing the experimental program; how the results from these sites will be integrated with existing knowledge; and how results will be used to advance

  13. The distinctive features of Indian malaria parasites.

    PubMed

    Das, Aparup

    2015-03-01

    Malaria and factors driving malaria are heterogeneous in India, unlike in other countries, and the epidemiology of malaria therefore is considered 'highly complex'. This complexity is primarily attributed to several unique features of the malaria parasites, mosquito vectors, malaria-susceptible populations, and ecoclimatic variables in India. Recent research on the genetic epidemiology of Indian malaria parasites has been successful in partly unraveling the mysteries underlying these complexities.

  14. STEP and STEPSPL: Computer programs for aerodynamic model structure determination and parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Batterson, J. G.

    1986-01-01

    The successful parametric modeling of the aerodynamics for an airplane operating at high angles of attack or sideslip is performed in two phases. First the aerodynamic model structure must be determined and second the associated aerodynamic parameters (stability and control derivatives) must be estimated for that model. The purpose of this paper is to document two versions of a stepwise regression computer program which were developed for the determination of airplane aerodynamic model structure and to provide two examples of their use on computer generated data. References are provided for the application of the programs to real flight data. The two computer programs that are the subject of this report, STEP and STEPSPL, are written in FORTRAN IV (ANSI l966) compatible with a CDC FTN4 compiler. Both programs are adaptations of a standard forward stepwise regression algorithm. The purpose of the adaptation is to facilitate the selection of a adequate mathematical model of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of an airplane from flight test data. The major difference between STEP and STEPSPL is in the basis for the model. The basis for the model in STEP is the standard polynomial Taylor's series expansion of the aerodynamic function about some steady-state trim condition. Program STEPSPL utilizes a set of spline basis functions.

  15. Climatic warming and increased malaria incidence in Rwanda.

    PubMed

    Loevinsohn, M E

    1994-03-19

    Global climatic change is expected to increase the incidence of vector-borne diseases, especially malaria. This study assessed the contribution of climate to a malaria epidemic in Rwanda, focusing on the catchment area of one health centre where diagnosis was consistent and non-climatic variables well monitored. In late 1987 malaria incidence in the area increased by 337% over the 3 previous years. The increase was greatest in groups with little acquired immunity--children under 2 years (564%) and people in high-altitude areas (501%). Case-fatality rose significantly (relative risk = 4.85, p < 0.001). 1987 also saw record high temperatures and rainfall. An autoregressive equation including lagged effects of these two variables explained 80% of the variance in monthly malaria incidence. Temperature (especially mean minimum) predicted incidence best at higher altitudes where malaria had increased most. Empirically derived relations were consistent with the estimated generation time of the disease and with the known sensitivity of the plasmodium parasite to temperature. The patterns of climatic warming between day and night and among seasons will be critical to the effect on malaria. These findings are most relevant to regions near the altitude or latitude limits of the disease, where several epidemics have lately been reported.

  16. RENEW - MAINTENANCE ESTIMATION SIMULATION MODEL FOR SPACE STATION FREEDOM PROGRAM, VERSION 3.2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bream, B. L.

    1994-01-01

    RENEW is a maintenance event estimation simulation program developed in support of the Space Station Freedom Program (SSFP) Work Package 4 at NASA Lewis Research Center. This simulation uses reliability and maintainability (R&M) data as well as logistics data to estimate both average and time dependent maintenance demands. RENEW uses Monte Carlo techniques to generate failure and repair times as a function of the R&M and logistics parameters. The estimates are generated for a single type of orbital replacement unit (ORU). The RENEW simulation gives closer estimates of performance than steady-state average calculations since it uses a time dependent approach and depicts more factors affecting ORU failure and repair. RENEW gives both average and time dependent demand values, and generates graphs of both failures over the mission period and yearly failure occurrences. The average demand rate for the ORU over the mission period is also calculated. While RENEW displays the results in graphs, the results are also available in data tables. The process of using RENEW starts with keyboard entry of the R&M and operational data. Once entered, the data may be saved in a data file for later retrieval, and the parameters may be viewed and changed. The simulation program runs the number of Monte Carlo simulations requested by the operator. Plots and tables of the results can be viewed on the screen or sent to a printer. The results of the simulation are saved along with the input data. Help screens are provided with each menu and data entry screen. RENEW is written in BASIC and assembly language for IBM PC series and compatible computers running MS-DOS. Microsoft's QuickBasic Professional Development System and Crescent Software's QuickPak Professional are required to compile the source code. A CGA or VGA monitor is required. A sample executable is provided on the distribution media. The standard distribution medium for this program is one 5.25 inch 360K MS-DOS format diskette

  17. 2004 status report: Savings estimates for the Energy Star(R)voluntarylabeling program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; McWhinney, Marla

    2004-03-09

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2003, whatwe expect in 2004, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2004 to 2010 and 2004 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  18. Modeling of Space Radiation Exposure Estimation Program for Pilots, Crew and Passengers on Commercial Flights

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Junga; Dokgo, Kyunghwan; Choi, Enjin; Park, Jong-Sun; Kim, Kyung-Chan; Kim, Hang-Pyo

    2014-03-01

    There has been a rapid increase of the concern on the space radiation effect on pilots, crew and passengers at the commercial aircraft altitude (~ 10 km) recently. It is because domestic airline companies, Korean Air and Asiana Airlines have just begun operating the polar routes over the North Pole since 2006 and 2009 respectively. CARI-6 and CARI-6M are commonly used space radiation estimation programs which are provided officially by the U.S. federal aviation administration (FAA). In this paper, the route doses and the annual radiation doses for Korean pilots and cabin crew were estimated by using CARI-6M based on 2012 flight records. Also the modeling concept was developed for our own space radiation estimation program which is composed of GEANT4 and NRLMSIS00 models. The GEANT4 model is used to trace the incident particle transports in the atmosphere and the NRLMSIS00 model is used to get the background atmospheric densities of various neutral atoms at the aircraft altitude. Also presented are the results of simple integration tests of those models and the plan to include the space weather variations through the solar proton event (SPE) prediction model such as UMASEP and the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) prediction model such as Badhwar-O¡¯Neill 2010.

  19. 2007 Status Report: Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)VoluntaryLabeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Sanchez, Marla; Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Homan,Gregory K.

    2007-03-23

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2006, whatwe expect in 2007, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2007 to 2015 and 2007 to 2025. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  20. 2006 Status Report Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)Voluntary Labeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Sanchez, Marla; Homan,Gregory K.

    2006-03-07

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), ENERGY STAR labels exist for more thanthirty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2005, whatwe expect in 2006, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2006 to 2015 and 2006 to 2025. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  1. 2005 Status Report Savings Estimates for the ENERGY STAR(R)Voluntary Labeling Program

    SciTech Connect

    Webber, Carrie A.; Brown, Richard E.; Sanchez, Marla

    2006-03-07

    ENERGY STAR(R) is a voluntary labeling program designed toidentify and promote energy-efficient products, buildings and practices.Operated jointly by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and theU.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Star labels exist for more thanforty products, spanning office equipment, residential heating andcooling equipment, commercial and residential lighting, home electronics,and major appliances. This report presents savings estimates for a subsetof ENERGY STAR labeled products. We present estimates of the energy,dollar and carbon savings achieved by the program in the year 2004, whatwe expect in 2005, and provide savings forecasts for two marketpenetration scenarios for the periods 2005 to 2010 and 2005 to 2020. Thetarget market penetration forecast represents our best estimate of futureENERGY STAR savings. It is based on realistic market penetration goalsfor each of the products. We also provide a forecast under the assumptionof 100 percent market penetration; that is, we assume that all purchasersbuy ENERGY STAR-compliant products instead of standard efficiencyproducts throughout the analysis period.

  2. Analytical solution and computer program (FAST) to estimate fluid fluxes from subsurface temperature profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurylyk, Barret L.; Irvine, Dylan J.

    2016-02-01

    This study details the derivation and application of a new analytical solution to the one-dimensional, transient conduction-advection equation that is applied to trace vertical subsurface fluid fluxes. The solution employs a flexible initial condition that allows for nonlinear temperature-depth profiles, providing a key improvement over most previous solutions. The boundary condition is composed of any number of superimposed step changes in surface temperature, and thus it accommodates intermittent warming and cooling periods due to long-term changes in climate or land cover. The solution is verified using an established numerical model of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport. A new computer program FAST (Flexible Analytical Solution using Temperature) is also presented to facilitate the inversion of this analytical solution to estimate vertical groundwater flow. The program requires surface temperature history (which can be estimated from historic climate data), subsurface thermal properties, a present-day temperature-depth profile, and reasonable initial conditions. FAST is written in the Python computing language and can be run using a free graphical user interface. Herein, we demonstrate the utility of the analytical solution and FAST using measured subsurface temperature and climate data from the Sendia Plain, Japan. Results from these illustrative examples highlight the influence of the chosen initial and boundary conditions on estimated vertical flow rates.

  3. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria.

    PubMed

    Visser, Theodoor; Daily, Jennifer; Hotte, Nora; Dolkart, Caitlin; Cunningham, Jane; Yadav, Prashant

    2015-12-01

    Maintaining quality, competitiveness and innovation in global health technology is a constant challenge for manufacturers, while affordability, access and equity are challenges for governments and international agencies. In this paper we discuss these issues with reference to rapid diagnostic tests for malaria. Strategies to control and eliminate malaria depend on early and accurate diagnosis. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria require little training and equipment and can be performed by non-specialists in remote settings. Use of these tests has expanded significantly over the last few years, following recommendations to test all suspected malaria cases before treatment and the implementation of an evaluation programme to assess the performance of the malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Despite these gains, challenges exist that, if not addressed, could jeopardize the progress made to date. We discuss recent developments in rapid diagnostic tests for malaria, highlight some of the challenges and provide suggestions to address them.

  4. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria

    PubMed Central

    Daily, Jennifer; Hotte, Nora; Dolkart, Caitlin; Cunningham, Jane; Yadav, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Maintaining quality, competitiveness and innovation in global health technology is a constant challenge for manufacturers, while affordability, access and equity are challenges for governments and international agencies. In this paper we discuss these issues with reference to rapid diagnostic tests for malaria. Strategies to control and eliminate malaria depend on early and accurate diagnosis. Rapid diagnostic tests for malaria require little training and equipment and can be performed by non-specialists in remote settings. Use of these tests has expanded significantly over the last few years, following recommendations to test all suspected malaria cases before treatment and the implementation of an evaluation programme to assess the performance of the malaria rapid diagnostic tests. Despite these gains, challenges exist that, if not addressed, could jeopardize the progress made to date. We discuss recent developments in rapid diagnostic tests for malaria, highlight some of the challenges and provide suggestions to address them. PMID:26668438

  5. Earth Impact Effects Program: Estimating the Regional Environmental Consequences of Impacts On Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, G. S.; Melosh, H. J.; Marcus, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The Earth Impact Effects Program (www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects) is a popular web-based calculator for estimating the regional environmental consequences of a comet or asteroid impact on Earth. It is widely used, both by inquisitive members of the public as an educational device and by scientists as a simple research tool. It applies a variety of scaling laws, based on theory, nuclear explosion test data, observations from terrestrial and extraterrestrial craters and the results of small-scale impact experiments and numerical modelling, to quantify the principal hazards that might affect the people, buildings and landscape in the vicinity of an impact. The program requires six inputs: impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity prior to atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the target type (sedimentary rock, crystalline rock, or a water layer above rock), as well as the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated. The program includes simple algorithms for estimating the fate of the impactor during atmospheric traverse, the thermal radiation emitted by the impact plume (fireball) and the intensity of seismic shaking. The program also approximates various dimensions of the impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blast in both crater-forming and airburst impacts. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of the program by comparing its predictions (where possible) against known impacts, such as Carancas, Peru (2007); Tunguska, Siberia (1908); Barringer (Meteor) crater, Arizona (ca 49 ka). These tests demonstrate that, while adequate for large impactors, the simple approximation of atmospheric entry in the original program does not properly account for the disruption and dispersal of small impactors as they traverse Earth's atmosphere. We describe recent improvements to the calculator to better describe atmospheric entry of small meteors; the consequences of oceanic impacts; and

  6. Impact of pyrethroid resistance on operational malaria control in Malawi

    PubMed Central

    Wondji, Charles S.; Coleman, Michael; Kleinschmidt, Immo; Mzilahowa, Themba; Irving, Helen; Ndula, Miranda; Rehman, Andrea; Morgan, John; Barnes, Kayla G.; Hemingway, Janet

    2012-01-01

    The impact of insecticide resistance on insect-borne disease programs is difficult to quantify. The possibility of eliminating malaria in high-transmission settings is heavily dependent on effective vector control reducing disease transmission rates. Pyrethroids are the dominant insecticides used for malaria control, with few options for their replacement. Their failure will adversely affect our ability to control malaria. Pyrethroid resistance has been selected in Malawi over the last 3 y in the two major malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus, with a higher frequency of resistance in the latter. The resistance in An. funestus is metabolically based and involves the up-regulation of two duplicated P450s. The same genes confer resistance in Mozambican An. funestus, although the levels of up-regulation differ. The selection of resistance over 3 y has not increased malaria transmission, as judged by annual point prevalence surveys in 1- to 4-y-old children. This is true in areas with long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) alone or LLINs plus pyrethroid-based insecticide residual spraying (IRS). However, in districts where IRS was scaled up, it did not produce the expected decrease in malaria prevalence. As resistance increases in frequency from this low initial level, there is the potential for vector population numbers to increase with a concomitant negative impact on control efficacy. This should be monitored carefully as part of the operational activities in country. PMID:23118337

  7. Malaria Early Warning: The MalarSat project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roca, M.; Escorihuela, M. J.; Martínez, D.; Torrent, M.; Aponte, J.; Nunez, F.; Garcia, J.

    2009-04-01

    Malaria is one of the major public health challenges undermining development in the world. The aim of MalarSat Project is to provide a malaria risks infection maps at global scale using Earth Observation data to support and prevent epidemic episodes. The proposed service for creating malaria risk maps would be critically useful to improve the efficiency in insecticide programs, vaccine campaigns and the logistics epidemic treatment. Different teams have already carried out studies in order to exploit the use of Earth Observation (EO) data with epidemiology purposes. In the case of malaria risk maps, it has been shown that meteorological data is not sufficient to fulfill this objective. In particular being able to map the malaria mosquito habitat would increase the accuracy of risk maps. The malaria mosquitoes mainly reproduce in new water puddles of very reduced dimensions (about 1 meter wide). There is no instrument that could detect such small patches of water unless there are many of them spread in an area of several hundreds of meters. MalarSat aims at using the radar altimeter data from the EnviSat, RA-2, to try and build indicators of mosquitoes existence. This presentation will show the scientific objectives and principles of the MalarSat project.

  8. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in rural Africa using the hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator (HYDREMATS)

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. Methods HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Results Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone. Conclusions HYDREMATS can be used to make reasonable predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, and provide early warnings of the potential for malaria epidemics in Africa. PMID:21073726

  9. Modeling malaria and typhoid fever co-infection dynamics.

    PubMed

    Mutua, Jones M; Wang, Feng-Bin; Vaidya, Naveen K

    2015-06-01

    Malaria and typhoid are among the most endemic diseases, and thus, of major public health concerns in tropical developing countries. In addition to true co-infection of malaria and typhoid, false diagnoses due to similar signs and symptoms and false positive results in testing methods, leading to improper controls, are the major challenges on managing these diseases. In this study, we develop novel mathematical models describing the co-infection dynamics of malaria and typhoid. Through mathematical analyses of our models, we identify distinct features of typhoid and malaria infection dynamics as well as relationships associated to their co-infection. The global dynamics of typhoid can be determined by a single threshold (the typhoid basic reproduction number, R0(T)) while two thresholds (the malaria basic reproduction number, R0(M), and the extinction index, R0(MM)) are needed to determine the global dynamics of malaria. We demonstrate that by using efficient simultaneous prevention programs, the co-infection basic reproduction number, R0, can be brought down to below one, thereby eradicating the diseases. Using our model, we present illustrative numerical results with a case study in the Eastern Province of Kenya to quantify the possible false diagnosis resulting from this co-infection. In Kenya, despite having higher prevalence of typhoid, malaria is more problematic in terms of new infections and disease deaths. We find that false diagnosis-with higher possible cases for typhoid than malaria-cause significant devastating impacts on Kenyan societies. Our results demonstrate that both diseases need to be simultaneously managed for successful control of co-epidemics. PMID:25865934

  10. Diagnostic approaches to malaria in Zambia, 2009-2014.

    PubMed

    Mukonka, Victor M; Chanda, Emmanuel; Kamuliwo, Mulakwa; Elbadry, Maha A; Wamulume, Pauline K; Mwanza-Ingwe, Mercy; Lubinda, Jailos; Laytner, Lindsey A; Zhang, Wenyi; Mushinge, Gabriel; Haque, Ubydul

    2015-01-01

    Malaria is an important health burden in Zambia with proper diagnosis remaining as one of the biggest challenges. The need for reliable diagnostics is being addressed through the introduction of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, without sufficient laboratory amenities in many parts of the country, diagnosis often still relies on non-specific, clinical symptoms. In this study, geographical information systems were used to both visualize and analyze the spatial distribution and the risk factors related to the diagnosis of malaria. The monthly reported, district-level number of malaria cases from January 2009 to December 2014 were collected from the National Malaria Control Center (NMCC). Spatial statistics were used to reveal cluster tendencies that were subsequently linked to possible risk factors, using a non-spatial regression model. Significant, spatio-temporal clusters of malaria were spotted while the introduction of RDTs made the number of clinically diagnosed malaria cases decrease by 33% from 2009 to 2014. The limited access to road network(s) was found to be associated with higher levels of malaria, which can be traced by the expansion of health promotion interventions by the NMCC, indicating enhanced diagnostic capability. The capacity of health facilities has been strengthened with the increased availability of proper diagnostic tools and through retraining of community health workers. To further enhance spatial decision support systems, a multifaceted approach is required to ensure mobilization and availability of human, infrastructural and technological resources. Surveillance based on standardized geospatial or other analytical methods should be used by program managers to design, target, monitor and assess the spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria diagnostic resources country-wide.

  11. [Assessment of malaria screening management in blood donation control in the French Military Blood Institute].

    PubMed

    Pouget, T; Garcia-Hejl, C; Bouzard, S; Roche, C; Sailliol, A; Martinaud, C

    2014-06-01

    The French Military Blood Institute is responsible for the entire blood supply chain in the French Armed Forces. Considering, the high exposition rate of military to malaria risk, blood donation screening of plasmodium infection must be as efficient as possible. The main aim of our study was to assess our malaria testing strategy based on a single Elisa test compared with a two-step strategy implying immunofluorescence testing as confirmation test. The second goal was to describe characteristic of malaria Elisa positive donors. We conducted a prospective study: every malaria Elisa positive test was implemented by immunofluorescence testing and demographical data were recorded as usual by our medical software. We showed a significant risk of malaria ELISA positive tests among donor born in endemic area and we estimate the number of abusively 3-year rejected donors. However, based on our estimations, the two-step strategy is not relevant since the number of additionally collected blood products will be low. PMID:24948206

  12. [Malaria in Hungary: origin, current state and principles of prevention].

    PubMed

    Szénási, Zsuzsanna; Vass, Adám; Melles, Márta; Kucsera, István; Danka, József; Csohán, Agnes; Krisztalovics, Katalin

    2003-05-25

    Malaria was an endemic disease in Hungary for many centuries. A country-wide survey of the epidemiologic situation on malaria started in the year of 1927. That was done by the Department of Parasitology of the Royal State Institute of Hygiene (presently: Johan Béla National Center for Epidemiology). The notification of malaria was made compulsory in 1930. Free of charge laboratory examination of the blood of persons suffering from malaria or suspected of an infection have been carried out. Anti-malarial drugs were also distributed free of charge, together with appropriate medical advise given at the anti-malarial sanitary stations. Between 1933 and 1943, the actual number of malaria cases was estimated as high as 10-100,000 per year. The major breakthrough came in 1949 by the organized antimalarial campaign applying DDT for mosquito eradication. The drastic reduction of the vectors resulted in the rapid decline of malaria cases. Since 1956, there have not been reported any indigenous case in Hungary. In 1963, Hungary entered on the Official Register of the WHO to the areas where malaria eradication has been achieved. During the period of 1963-2001, 169 Hungarians acquired the malaria in abroad and 263 foreigners infected in abroad were registered in Hungary. More than half of the cases (230) were caused by Plasmodium falciparum. Further 178 cases were caused by Plasmodium vivax and 24 cases by other Plasmodium species. During that period, 7 fatal cases were reported (Plasmodium falciparum). The expansion of migration (both the increase of the number of foreigners travelling into Hungary and of Hungarians travelling abroad) favours to the appearance of imported cases. Attention is called of all the persons travelling to malaria endemic countries to the importance of malaria prevention by the International Vaccination Stations located in the National Center for Epidemiology and in the Public Health Institutes of 19 counties and of Budapest. The Johan Béla National

  13. Concurrent meningitis and vivax malaria

    PubMed Central

    Santra, Tuhin; Datta, Sumana; Agrawal, Neha; Bar, Mita; Kar, Arnab; Adhikary, Apu; Ranjan, Kunal

    2015-01-01

    Malaria is an endemic infectious disease in India. It is often associated with other infective conditions but concomitant infection of malaria and meningitis are uncommon. We present a case of meningitis with vivax malaria infection in a 24-year-old lady. This case emphasizes the importance of high index of clinical suspicion to detect other infective conditions like meningitis when fever does not improve even after anti-malarial treatment in a patient of malaria before switching therapy suspecting drug resistance, which is quite common in this part of world. PMID:26985423

  14. Transcriptional changes induced by candidate malaria vaccines and correlation with protection against malaria in a human challenge model

    PubMed Central

    Dunachie, Susanna; Berthoud, Tamara; Hill, Adrian V.S.; Fletcher, Helen A.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The complexity of immunity to malaria is well known, and clear correlates of protection against malaria have not been established. A better understanding of immune markers induced by candidate malaria vaccines would greatly enhance vaccine development, immunogenicity monitoring and estimation of vaccine efficacy in the field. We have previously reported complete or partial efficacy against experimental sporozoite challenge by several vaccine regimens in healthy malaria-naïve subjects in Oxford. These include a prime-boost regimen with RTS,S/AS02A and modified vaccinia virus Ankara (MVA) expressing the CSP antigen, and a DNA-prime, MVA-boost regimen expressing the ME TRAP antigens. Using samples from these trials we performed transcriptional profiling, allowing a global assessment of responses to vaccination. Methods We used Human RefSeq8 Bead Chips from Illumina to examine gene expression using PBMC (peripheral blood mononuclear cells) from 16 human volunteers. To focus on antigen-specific changes, comparisons were made between PBMC stimulated with CSP or TRAP peptide pools and unstimulated PBMC post vaccination. We then correlated gene expression with protection against malaria in a human Plasmodium falciparum malaria challenge model. Results Differentially expressed genes induced by both vaccine regimens were predominantly in the IFN-γ pathway. Gene set enrichment analysis revealed antigen-specific effects on genes associated with IFN induction and proteasome modules after vaccination. Genes associated with IFN induction and antigen presentation modules were positively enriched in subjects with complete protection from malaria challenge, while genes associated with haemopoietic stem cells, regulatory monocytes and the myeloid lineage modules were negatively enriched in protected subjects. Conclusions These results represent novel insights into the immune repertoires involved in malaria vaccination. PMID:26256523

  15. The 1996 Runme Shaw Memorial Lecture: malaria--past, present and future.

    PubMed

    Warrell, D A

    1997-05-01

    Falciparum malaria may have infected Homo sapiens (and perhaps H erectus) in the Asia Pacific region for more than 100,000 years. This estimate is based on the gene frequency of alpha-thalassaemia, the protection it affords against falciparum malaria and assumptions of untreated mortality from the infection. Up until the end of the 19th century, there was a high mortality from malaria in the coastal parts of Malaya, but the malaria control campaign, begun in 1901 at Klang, was described by Sir Ronald Ross as the first successful antimalarial work in the (then) British Empire. This was extended to Singapore in 1911. When the Far Eastern Association of Tropical Medicine held its Fifth Biennial Congress in Singapore in 1923, malaria was still a major killing disease in parts of Malaya and Sarawak. The mechanism of life-threatening malaria involves cytoadherence of parasitised erythrocytes in microvascular beds, a process enhanced by the products of macrophage activation induced by malarial pyrogen. Improvements in the chemotherapy of life-threatening falciparum malaria with chloroquine and quinine have been countered by the emergence of resistant strains. Artemisinin derivatives may become the treatment of choice during the coming decade. Apart from traditional anti-mosquito methods, control of malaria now involves the use of insecticide-impregnated bed nets, new entomological strategies, including genetic manipulation of mosquitoes and selective chemoprophylaxis. Antigenic diversity and antigenic variation of the malaria parasite have so far defeated attempts to produce an effective vaccine.

  16. Cost effective malaria risk control using remote sensing and environmental data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rahman, Md. Z.; Roytman, Leonid; Kadik, Abdel Hamid

    2012-06-01

    Malaria transmission in many part of the world specifically in Bangladesh and southern African countries is unstable and epidemic. An estimate of over a million cases is reported annually. Malaria is heterogeneous, potentially due to variations in ecological settings, socio-economic status, land cover, and agricultural practices. Malaria control only relies on treatment and supply of bed networks. Drug resistance to these diseases is widespread. Vector control is minimal. Malaria control in those countries faces many formidable challenges such as inadequate accessibility to effective treatment, lack of trained manpower, inaccessibility of endemic areas, poverty, lack of education, poor health infrastructure and low health budgets. Health facilities for malaria management are limited, surveillance is inadequate, and vector control is insufficient. Control can only be successful if the right methods are used at the right time in the right place. This paper aims to improve malaria control by developing malaria risk maps and risk models using satellite remote sensing data by identifying, assessing, and mapping determinants of malaria associated with environmental, socio-economic, malaria control, and agricultural factors.

  17. Digital program for solving the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation problem

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geyser, L. C.; Lehtinen, B.

    1975-01-01

    A computer program is described which solves the linear stochastic optimal control and estimation (LSOCE) problem by using a time-domain formulation. The LSOCE problem is defined as that of designing controls for a linear time-invariant system which is disturbed by white noise in such a way as to minimize a performance index which is quadratic in state and control variables. The LSOCE problem and solution are outlined; brief descriptions are given of the solution algorithms, and complete descriptions of each subroutine, including usage information and digital listings, are provided. A test case is included, as well as information on the IBM 7090-7094 DCS time and storage requirements.

  18. Orbital Spacecraft Consumables Resupply System (OSCRS). Volume 3: Program Cost Estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Perry, D. L.

    1986-01-01

    A cost analysis for the design, development, qualification, and production of the monopropellant and bipropellant Orbital Spacecraft Consumable Resupply System (OSCRS) tankers, their associated avionics located in the Orbiter payload bay, and the unique ground support equipment (GSE) and airborne support equipment (ASE) required to support operations is presented. Monopropellant resupply for the Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) in calendar year 1991 is the first defined resupply mission with bipropellant resupply missions expected in the early to mid 1990's. The monopropellant program estimate also includes contractor costs associated with operations support through the first GRO resupply mission.

  19. READSCAN: a fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    PubMed Central

    Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: arnab.pain@kaust.edu.sa or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23193222

  20. Optimal input design for aircraft parameter estimation using dynamic programming principles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, Vladislav; Morelli, Eugene A.

    1990-01-01

    A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.

  1. Optimal Input Design for Aircraft Parameter Estimation using Dynamic Programming Principles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

    1990-01-01

    A new technique was developed for designing optimal flight test inputs for aircraft parameter estimation experiments. The principles of dynamic programming were used for the design in the time domain. This approach made it possible to include realistic practical constraints on the input and output variables. A description of the new approach is presented, followed by an example for a multiple input linear model describing the lateral dynamics of a fighter aircraft. The optimal input designs produced by the new technique demonstrated improved quality and expanded capability relative to the conventional multiple input design method.

  2. Space transfer vehicle concepts and requirements. Volume 3: Program cost estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The Space Transfer Vehicle (STV) Concepts and Requirements Study has been an eighteen-month study effort to develop and analyze concepts for a family of vehicles to evolve from an initial STV system into a Lunar Transportation System (LTS) for use with the Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle (HLLV). The study defined vehicle configurations, facility concepts, and ground and flight operations concepts. This volume reports the program cost estimates results for this portion of the study. The STV Reference Concept described within this document provides a complete LTS system that performs both cargo and piloted Lunar missions.

  3. TRAC-PF1: an advanced best-estimate computer program for pressurized water reactor analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Liles, D.R.; Mahaffy, J.H.

    1984-02-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC) is being developed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory to provide advanced best-estimate predictions of postulated accidents in light water reactors. The TRAC-PF1 program provides this capability for pressurized water reactors and for many thermal-hydraulic experimental facilities. The code features either a one-dimensional or a three-dimensional treatment of the pressure vessel and its associated internals; a two-phase, two-fluid nonequilibrium hydrodynamics model with a noncondensable gas field; flow-regime-dependent constitutive equation treatment; optional reflood tracking capability for both bottom flood and falling-film quench fronts; and consistent treatment of entire accident sequences including the generation of consistent initial conditions. This report describes the thermal-hydraulic models and the numerical solution methods used in the code. Detailed programming and user information also are provided.

  4. Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yeh, K.; Wei, H.; Chen, L.; Liu, G.

    2010-12-01

    Estimating Typhoon Rainfall over Sea from SSM/I Satellite Data Using an Improved Genetic Programming Keh-Chia Yeha, Hsiao-Ping Weia,d, Li Chenb, and Gin-Rong Liuc a Department of Civil Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. b Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Informatics, Chung Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, 300, R.O.C. c Center for Space and Remote Sensing Research, National Central University, Tao-Yuan, Taiwan, 320, R.O.C. d National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei County, Taiwan, 231, R.O.C. Abstract This paper proposes an improved multi-run genetic programming (GP) and applies it to predict the rainfall using meteorological satellite data. GP is a well-known evolutionary programming and data mining method, used to automatically discover the complex relationships among nonlinear systems. The main advantage of GP is to optimize appropriate types of function and their associated coefficients simultaneously. This study makes an improvement to enhance escape ability from local optimums during the optimization procedure. The GP continuously runs several times by replacing the terminal nodes at the next run with the best solution at the current run. The current novel model improves GP, obtaining a highly nonlinear mathematical equation to estimate the rainfall. In the case study, this improved GP described above combining with SSM/I satellite data is employed to establish a suitable method for estimating rainfall at sea surface during typhoon periods. These estimated rainfalls are then verified with the data from four rainfall stations located at Peng-Jia-Yu, Don-Gji-Dao, Lan-Yu, and Green Island, which are four small islands around Taiwan. From the results, the improved GP can generate sophisticated and accurate nonlinear mathematical equation through two-run learning procedures which outperforms the traditional multiple linear regression, empirical equations and back-propagated network

  5. Estimating Landholders’ Probability of Participating in a Stewardship Program, and the Implications for Spatial Conservation Priorities

    PubMed Central

    Adams, Vanessa M.; Pressey, Robert L.; Stoeckl, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements - conservation covenants and management agreements - based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders’ probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation. PMID:24892520

  6. Estimating landholders' probability of participating in a stewardship program, and the implications for spatial conservation priorities.

    PubMed

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Stoeckl, Natalie

    2014-01-01

    The need to integrate social and economic factors into conservation planning has become a focus of academic discussions and has important practical implications for the implementation of conservation areas, both private and public. We conducted a survey in the Daly Catchment, Northern Territory, to inform the design and implementation of a stewardship payment program. We used a choice model to estimate the likely level of participation in two legal arrangements--conservation covenants and management agreements--based on payment level and proportion of properties required to be managed. We then spatially predicted landholders' probability of participating at the resolution of individual properties and incorporated these predictions into conservation planning software to examine the potential for the stewardship program to meet conservation objectives. We found that the properties that were least costly, per unit area, to manage were also the least likely to participate. This highlights a tension between planning for a cost-effective program and planning for a program that targets properties with the highest probability of participation.

  7. Monitoring multiple species: Estimating state variables and exploring the efficacy of a monitoring program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mattfeldt, S.D.; Bailey, L.L.; Grant, E.H.C.

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring programs have the potential to identify population declines and differentiate among the possible cause(s) of these declines. Recent criticisms regarding the design of monitoring programs have highlighted a failure to clearly state objectives and to address detectability and spatial sampling issues. Here, we incorporate these criticisms to design an efficient monitoring program whose goals are to determine environmental factors which influence the current distribution and measure change in distributions over time for a suite of amphibians. In designing the study we (1) specified a priori factors that may relate to occupancy, extinction, and colonization probabilities and (2) used the data collected (incorporating detectability) to address our scientific questions and adjust our sampling protocols. Our results highlight the role of wetland hydroperiod and other local covariates in the probability of amphibian occupancy. There was a change in overall occupancy probabilities for most species over the first three years of monitoring. Most colonization and extinction estimates were constant over time (years) and space (among wetlands), with one notable exception: local extinction probabilities for Rana clamitans were lower for wetlands with longer hydroperiods. We used information from the target system to generate scenarios of population change and gauge the ability of the current sampling to meet monitoring goals. Our results highlight the limitations of the current sampling design, emphasizing the need for long-term efforts, with periodic re-evaluation of the program in a framework that can inform management decisions.

  8. Pathogenesis of malaria revisited.

    PubMed

    Dasari, Prasad; Bhakdi, Sucharit

    2012-11-01

    Plasmodium falciparum malaria claims 1 million lives around the globe every year. Parasitemia can reach remarkably high levels. The developing parasite digests hemoglobin and converts the waste product to hemozoin alias malaria pigment. These processes occur in a vesicular compartment named the digestive vacuole (DV). Each parasitized cell releases one DV upon rupture. Myriads of DVs thus gain entry into the blood, but whether they trigger pathobiological events has never been investigated. We recently discovered that the DV membrane simultaneously activates the two major enzyme cascades in blood, complement and coagulation. Activation of both is known to occur in patients with severe malaria, so discovery of the common trigger has large consequences. The DV membrane but not the merozoite has the capacity to spontaneously activate the alternative complement and intrinsic clotting pathway. Ejection of merozoites and the DV into the bloodstream, therefore, results in selective opsonization and phagocytosis of the DV, leaving merozoites free to invade new cells. The DV membrane furthermore has the capacity to assemble prothrombinase, the key convertase of the intrinsic clotting pathway. The dual capacity of the DV to activate both complement and coagulation can be suppressed by low-molecular-weight dextran sulfate. This agent protects experimental animals from the detrimental consequences, resulting from intravenous application of purified DVs. Phagocytosis of DVs not only deploys PMN away from merozoites, but also drives the cells into a state of functional exhaustion. This may be one reason for the enhanced susceptibility of patients with severe malaria toward systemic bacterial infections. Together, these findings indicate that the DV may represent a hitherto unrecognized, important determinant of parasite pathogenicity.

  9. [Malaria in hominids].

    PubMed

    Snounou, Georges; Escalante, Ananias; Kasenene, John; Rénia, Laurent; Grüner, Anne-Charlotte; Krief, Sabrina

    2011-11-01

    Malaria parasites (Plasmodium spp) that infect great apes are very poorly documented Malaria was first described in gorillas, chimpanzees and orangutans in the early 20th century, but most studies were confined to a handful of chimpanzees in the 1930-1950s and a few orangutans in the 1970s. The three Plasmodium species described in African great apes were very similar to those infecting humans. The most extensively studied was P reichenowi, because of its close phylogenetic relation to P. falciparum, the predominant parasite in Africa and the most dangerous for humans. In the last three years, independent molecular studies of various chimpanzee and gorilla populations have revealed an unexpected diversity in the Plasmodium species they harbor, which are also phylogenetically close to P falciparum. In addition, cases of non human primate infection by human malaria parasites have been observed. These observations shed fresh light on the origin and evolutionary history of P. falciparum and provide a unique opportunity to probe the biological specificities of this major human parasite.

  10. Artemether for severe malaria

    PubMed Central

    Esu, Ekpereonne; Effa, Emmanuel E; Opie, Oko N; Uwaoma, Amirahobu; Meremikwu, Martin M

    2014-01-01

    Background In 2011 the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended parenteral artesunate in preference to quinine as first-line treatment for people with severe malaria. Prior to this recommendation, many countries, particularly in Africa, had begun to use artemether, an alternative artemisinin derivative. This review evaluates intramuscular artemether compared with both quinine and artesunate. Objectives To assess the efficacy and safety of intramuscular artemether versus any other parenteral medication in treating severe malaria in adults and children. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialized Register, CENTRAL (The Cochrane Library), MEDLINE, EMBASE and LILACS, ISI Web of Science, conference proceedings and reference lists of articles. We also searched the WHO clinical trial registry platform, ClinicalTrials.gov and the metaRegister of Controlled Trials (mRCT) for ongoing trials up to 9 April 2014. Selection criteria Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) comparing intramuscular artemether with intravenous or intramuscular antimalarial for treating severe malaria. Data collection and analysis The primary outcome was all-cause death.Two authors independently assessed trial eligibility, risk of bias and extracted data. We summarized dichotomous outcomes using risk ratios (RR) and continuous outcomes using mean differences (MD), and presented both measures with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate, we combined data in meta-analyses and assessed the quality of the evidence using the GRADE approach. Main results We included 18 RCTs, enrolling 2662 adults and children with severe malaria, carried out in Africa (11) and in Asia (7). Artemether versus quinine For children in Africa, there is probably little or no difference in the risk of death between intramuscular artemether and quinine (RR 0.96, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.20; 12 trials, 1447 participants, moderate quality evidence). Coma recovery may be about five hours shorter with

  11. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background:- In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. It usually occurs at altitudes < 2,000 m above sea level. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. For transmission of malaria parasite, climatic factors are important determinants as well as non-climatic factors that can negate climatic influences. Indeed, there is a scarcity of information on the correlation between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Ethiopia in general and in the study area in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study was to determine the level of correlation between meteorological variables and malaria cases. Methods: - Time-series analysis was conducted using data on monthly meteorological variables and monthly total malaria in Jimma town, south west Ethiopia, for the period 2000-2009. All the data were entered and analyzed using SPSS-15 database program. Spearman correlation and linear regression analysis were used to asses association between the variables. Results: - During last ten years (2000-2009), a fluctuating trend of malaria transmission was observed with P.vivax becoming predominant species. Spearman correlation analysis showed that monthly minimum temperature, total rainfall and two measures of relative humidity were positively related with malaria but monthly maximum temperature negatively related. Also regression analysis suggested that monthly minimum (p = 0.008), monthly maximum temperature (p = 0.013) and monthly total rainfall (p = 0.040), at one month lagged effect, were significant meteorological factors for transmission of malaria in the study area. Conclusion: - Malaria incidences in the last decade seem to have a significant association with meteorological variables. In future, prospective and multidisciplinary cooperative research involving researchers from the fields of parasitology, epidemiology, botany, agriculture and

  12. Initial evidence of reduction of malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia due to rapid scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment

    PubMed Central

    Otten, Mac; Aregawi, Maru; Were, Wilson; Karema, Corine; Medin, Ambachew; Bekele, Worku; Jima, Daddi; Gausi, Khoti; Komatsu, Ryuichi; Korenromp, Eline; Low-Beer, Daniel; Grabowsky, Mark

    2009-01-01

    Background An increasing number of malaria-endemic African countries are rapidly scaling up malaria prevention and treatment. To have an initial estimate of the impact of these efforts, time trends in health facility records were evaluated in selected districts in Ethiopia and Rwanda, where long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) had been distributed nationwide by 2007. Methods In Ethiopia, a stratified convenience sample covered four major regions where (moderately) endemic malaria occurs. In Rwanda, two districts were sampled in all five provinces, with one rural health centre and one rural hospital selected in each district. The main impact indicator was percentage change in number of in-patient malaria cases and deaths in children < 5 years old prior to (2001–2005/6) and after (2007) nationwide implementation of LLIN and ACT. Results In-patient malaria cases and deaths in children < 5 years old in Rwanda fell by 55% and 67%, respectively, and in Ethiopia by 73% and 62%. Over this same time period, non-malaria cases and deaths generally remained stable or increased. Conclusion Initial evidence indicated that the combination of mass distribution of LLIN to all children < 5 years or all households and nationwide distribution of ACT in the public sector was associated with substantial declines of in-patient malaria cases and deaths in Rwanda and Ethiopia. Clinic-based data was a useful tool for local monitoring of the impact of malaria programmes. PMID:19144183

  13. Satellite-observed sensitivity of weather condition for forecasting malaria vector distribution in Bandarban District, Bangladesh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nizamuddin, Mohammad; Rahman, Atiqur; Roytman, Leonid; Kogan, Felix; Powell, Al; Goldberg, Mitch; Khan, Mohammad M.

    2008-10-01

    Malaria is a serious public health problem in Bangladesh. Almost thirteen districts in Bangladesh experience epidemics of malaria. Epidemics occur mainly in the highlands of Bangladesh, notably in Bandarban district. This study examined the relationship between environmental factors and malaria incidence in Bandarban district in Bangladesh. This paper examines the association between malaria cases and weekly vegetation health condition index for the region for last fourteen years. The vegetation health index derived from a combination of Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer based normalized difference vegetation index and 10 micrometer (μm) to 11 micrometer (μm) thermal radiances, was designed for monitoring moisture and thermal impacts on vegetation health. It estimates the correlation between malaria cases and Vegetation Health (VH) Indices (Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI)) computed for each week over a period of 14 years (1992-2005). Following the results of correlation analysis the principal components regression (PCR) method was performed on weather components of satellite data and climate variability during each of the two annual malaria seasons to construct a model to predict malaria as a function of the TCI computed for this period. A good correlation was found between malaria cases and TCI characterizing thermal condition during the month of August and September. Furthermore the simulated results found from PCR model were compared with observed malaria statistics showing that the error of the estimates of malaria is less than 10%. Remote sensing therefore demonstrates the potential of a seasonal forecasting which can provide information about peak mosquito to breading conditions. The derived results are potential important for decision makers in the region to control malaria particularly under constraint of limited budget allocations.

  14. Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Environmental Suitability for Malaria Transmission in West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Eltahir, Elfatih A.B.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain. Objective: We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. Methods: We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area. Results: Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region. Citation: Yamana TK, Eltahir EA. 2013. Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa. Environ Health Perspect 121:1179–1186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp

  15. Cross-border malaria: a major obstacle for malaria elimination.

    PubMed

    Wangdi, Kinley; Gatton, Michelle L; Kelly, Gerard C; Clements, Archie C A

    2015-06-01

    Movement of malaria across international borders poses a major obstacle to achieving malaria elimination in the 34 countries that have committed to this goal. In border areas, malaria prevalence is often higher than in other areas due to lower access to health services, treatment-seeking behaviour of marginalized populations that typically inhabit border areas, difficulties in deploying prevention programmes to hard-to-reach communities, often in difficult terrain, and constant movement of people across porous national boundaries. Malaria elimination in border areas will be challenging and key to addressing the challenges is strengthening of surveillance activities for rapid identification of any importation or reintroduction of malaria. This could involve taking advantage of technological advances, such as spatial decision support systems, which can be deployed to assist programme managers to carry out preventive and reactive measures, and mobile phone technology, which can be used to capture the movement of people in the border areas and likely sources of malaria importation. Additionally, joint collaboration in the prevention and control of cross-border malaria by neighbouring countries, and reinforcement of early diagnosis and prompt treatment are ways forward in addressing the problem of cross-border malaria.

  16. Profiling the host response to malaria vaccination and malaria challenge

    PubMed Central

    Dunachie, Susanna; Hill, Adrian V.S.; Fletcher, Helen A.

    2015-01-01

    A vaccine for malaria is urgently required. The RTS,S vaccine represents major progress, but is only partially effective. Development of the next generation of highly effective vaccines requires elucidation of the protective immune response. Immunity to malaria is known to be complex, and pattern-based approaches such as global gene expression profiling are ideal for understanding response to vaccination and protection against disease. The availability of experimental sporozoite challenge in humans to test candidate malaria vaccines offers a precious opportunity unavailable for other current targets of vaccine research such as HIV, tuberculosis and Ebola. However, a limited number of transcriptional profiling studies in the context of malaria vaccine research have been published to date. This review outlines the background, existing studies, limits and opportunities for gene expression studies to accelerate malaria vaccine research. PMID:26256528

  17. Profiling the host response to malaria vaccination and malaria challenge.

    PubMed

    Dunachie, Susanna; Hill, Adrian V S; Fletcher, Helen A

    2015-09-29

    A vaccine for malaria is urgently required. The RTS,S vaccine represents major progress, but is only partially effective. Development of the next generation of highly effective vaccines requires elucidation of the protective immune response. Immunity to malaria is known to be complex, and pattern-based approaches such as global gene expression profiling are ideal for understanding response to vaccination and protection against disease. The availability of experimental sporozoite challenge in humans to test candidate malaria vaccines offers a precious opportunity unavailable for other current targets of vaccine research such as HIV, tuberculosis and Ebola. However, a limited number of transcriptional profiling studies in the context of malaria vaccine research have been published to date. This review outlines the background, existing studies, limits and opportunities for gene expression studies to accelerate malaria vaccine research.

  18. Immunity to malaria in an era of declining malaria transmission.

    PubMed

    Fowkes, Freya J I; Boeuf, Philippe; Beeson, James G

    2016-02-01

    With increasing malaria control and goals of malaria elimination, many endemic areas are transitioning from high-to-low-to-no malaria transmission. Reductions in transmission will impact on the development of naturally acquired immunity to malaria, which develops after repeated exposure to Plasmodium spp. However, it is currently unclear how declining transmission and malaria exposure will affect the development and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity. Here we review the key processes which underpin this knowledge; the amount of Plasmodium spp. exposure required to generate effective immune responses, the longevity of antibody responses and the ability to mount an effective response upon re-exposure through memory responses. Lastly we identify research priorities which will increase our understanding of how changing transmission will impact on malarial immunity.

  19. Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.

    2007-12-01

    The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.

  20. MODEST - JPL GEODETIC AND ASTROMETRIC VLBI MODELING AND PARAMETER ESTIMATION PROGRAM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sovers, O. J.

    1994-01-01

    Observations of extragalactic radio sources in the gigahertz region of the radio frequency spectrum by two or more antennas, separated by a baseline as long as the diameter of the Earth, can be reduced, by radio interferometry techniques, to yield time delays and their rates of change. The Very Long Baseline Interferometric (VLBI) observables can be processed by the MODEST software to yield geodetic and astrometric parameters of interest in areas such as geophysical satellite and spacecraft tracking applications and geodynamics. As the accuracy of radio interferometry has improved, increasingly complete models of the delay and delay rate observables have been developed. MODEST is a delay model (MOD) and parameter estimation (EST) program that takes into account delay effects such as geometry, clock, troposphere, and the ionosphere. MODEST includes all known effects at the centimeter level in modeling. As the field evolves and new effects are discovered, these can be included in the model. In general, the model includes contributions to the observables from Earth orientation, antenna motion, clock behavior, atmospheric effects, and radio source structure. Within each of these categories, a number of unknown parameters may be estimated from the observations. Since all parts of the time delay model contain nearly linear parameter terms, a square-root-information filter (SRIF) linear least-squares algorithm is employed in parameter estimation. Flexibility (via dynamic memory allocation) in the MODEST code ensures that the same executable can process a wide array of problems. These range from a few hundred observations on a single baseline, yielding estimates of tens of parameters, to global solutions estimating tens of thousands of parameters from hundreds of thousands of observations at antennas widely distributed over the Earth's surface. Depending on memory and disk storage availability, large problems may be subdivided into more tractable pieces that are processed

  1. Estimates of cloud water deposition at Mountain Acid Deposition Program sites in the Appalachian Mountains.

    PubMed

    Baumgardner, Ralph E; Isil, Selma S; Lavery, Thomas F; Rogers, Christopher M; Mohnen, Volker A

    2003-03-01

    Cloud water deposition was estimated at three high-elevation sites in the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern United States (Whiteface Mountain, NY; Whitetop Mountain, VA; and Clingman's Dome, TN) from 1994 through 1999 as part of the Mountain Acid Deposition Program (MADPro). This paper provides a summary of cloud water chemistry, cloud liquid water content, cloud frequency, estimates of cloud water deposition of sulfur and nitrogen species, and estimates of total deposition of sulfur and nitrogen at these sites. Other cloud studies in the Appalachians and their comparison to MADPro are also summarized. Whiteface Mountain exhibited the lowest mean and median concentrations of sulfur and nitrogen ions in cloud water, while Clingman's Dome exhibited the highest mean and median concentrations. This geographic gradient is partly an effect of the different meteorological conditions experienced at northern versus southern sites in addition to the difference in pollution content of air masses reaching the sites. All sites measured seasonal cloud water deposition rates of SO4(2-) greater than 50 kg/ha and NO3(-) rates of greater than 25 kg/ha. These high-elevation sites experienced additional deposition loading of SO4(2-) and NO3(-) on the order of 6-20 times greater compared with lower elevation Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNet) sites. Approximately 80-90% of this extra loading is from cloud deposition.

  2. Geostatistical modelling of the malaria risk in Mozambique: effect of the spatial resolution when using remotely-sensed imagery.

    PubMed

    Giardina, Federica; Franke, Jonas; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2015-11-26

    The study of malaria spatial epidemiology has benefited from recent advances in geographic information system and geostatistical modelling. Significant progress in earth observation technologies has led to the development of moderate, high and very high resolution imagery. Extensive literature exists on the relationship between malaria and environmental/climatic factors in different geographical areas, but few studies have linked human malaria parasitemia survey data with remote sensing-derived land cover/land use variables and very few have used Earth Observation products. Comparison among the different resolution products to model parasitemia has not yet been investigated. In this study, we probe a proximity measure to incorporate different land cover classes and assess the effect of the spatial resolution of remotely sensed land cover and elevation on malaria risk estimation in Mozambique after adjusting for other environmental factors at a fixed spatial resolution. We used data from the Demographic and Health survey carried out in 2011, which collected malaria parasitemia data on children from 0 to 5 years old, analysing them with a Bayesian geostatistical model. We compared the risk predicted using land cover and elevation at moderate resolution with the risk obtained employing the same variables at high resolution. We used elevation data at moderate and high resolution and the land cover layer from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer as well as the one produced by MALAREO, a project covering part of Mozambique during 2010-2012 that was funded by the European Union's 7th Framework Program. Moreover, the number of infected children was predicted at different spatial resolutions using AFRIPOP population data and the enhanced population data generated by the MALAREO project for comparison of estimates. The Bayesian geostatistical model showed that the main determinants of malaria presence are precipitation and day temperature. However, the presence

  3. Malaria diagnostics in clinical trials.

    PubMed

    Murphy, Sean C; Shott, Joseph P; Parikh, Sunil; Etter, Paige; Prescott, William R; Stewart, V Ann

    2013-11-01

    Malaria diagnostics are widely used in epidemiologic studies to investigate natural history of disease and in drug and vaccine clinical trials to exclude participants or evaluate efficacy. The Malaria Laboratory Network (MLN), managed by the Office of HIV/AIDS Network Coordination, is an international working group with mutual interests in malaria disease and diagnosis and in human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome clinical trials. The MLN considered and studied the wide array of available malaria diagnostic tests for their suitability for screening trial participants and/or obtaining study endpoints for malaria clinical trials, including studies of HIV/malaria co-infection and other malaria natural history studies. The MLN provides recommendations on microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests, serologic tests, and molecular assays to guide selection of the most appropriate test(s) for specific research objectives. In addition, this report provides recommendations regarding quality management to ensure reproducibility across sites in clinical trials. Performance evaluation, quality control, and external quality assessment are critical processes that must be implemented in all clinical trials using malaria tests.

  4. Newer approaches to malaria control

    PubMed Central

    Damodaran, SE; Pradhan, Prita; Pradhan, Suresh Chandra

    2011-01-01

    Malaria is the third leading cause of death due to infectious diseases affecting around 243 million people, causing 863,000 deaths each year, and is a major public health problem. Most of the malarial deaths occur in children below 5 years and is a major contributor of under-five mortality. As a result of environmental and climatic changes, there is a change in vector population and distribution, leading to resurgence of malaria at numerous foci. Resistance to antimalarials is a major challenge to malaria control and there are new drug developments, new approaches to treatment strategies, combination therapy to overcome resistance and progress in vaccine development. Now, artemisinin-based combination therapy is the first-line therapy as the malarial parasite has developed resistance to other antimalarials. Reports of artemisinin resistance are appearing and identification of new drug targets gains utmost importance. As there is a shift from malaria control to malaria eradication, more research is focused on malaria vaccine development. A malaria vaccine, RTS,S, is in phase III of development and may become the first successful one. Due to resistance to insecticides and lack of environmental sanitation, the conventional methods of vector control are turning out to be futile. To overcome this, novel strategies like sterile insect technique and transgenic mosquitoes are pursued for effective vector control. As a result of the global organizations stepping up their efforts with continued research, eradication of malaria can turn out to be a reality. PMID:23508211

  5. Newer approaches to malaria control.

    PubMed

    Damodaran, Se; Pradhan, Prita; Pradhan, Suresh Chandra

    2011-07-01

    Malaria is the third leading cause of death due to infectious diseases affecting around 243 million people, causing 863,000 deaths each year, and is a major public health problem. Most of the malarial deaths occur in children below 5 years and is a major contributor of under-five mortality. As a result of environmental and climatic changes, there is a change in vector population and distribution, leading to resurgence of malaria at numerous foci. Resistance to antimalarials is a major challenge to malaria control and there are new drug developments, new approaches to treatment strategies, combination therapy to overcome resistance and progress in vaccine development. Now, artemisinin-based combination therapy is the first-line therapy as the malarial parasite has developed resistance to other antimalarials. Reports of artemisinin resistance are appearing and identification of new drug targets gains utmost importance. As there is a shift from malaria control to malaria eradication, more research is focused on malaria vaccine development. A malaria vaccine, RTS,S, is in phase III of development and may become the first successful one. Due to resistance to insecticides and lack of environmental sanitation, the conventional methods of vector control are turning out to be futile. To overcome this, novel strategies like sterile insect technique and transgenic mosquitoes are pursued for effective vector control. As a result of the global organizations stepping up their efforts with continued research, eradication of malaria can turn out to be a reality. PMID:23508211

  6. Malaria in Wanokaka and Loli sub-districts, West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Syafruddin, Din; Asih, Puji B S; Coutrier, Farah N; Trianty, Leily; Noviyanti, Rintis; Luase, Yaveth; Sumarto, Wajiyo; Caley, Marten; van der Ven, Andre J A M; Sauerwein, Robert W

    2006-05-01

    Malaria has long been known as one of the major public health problems in West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. To obtain baseline data for establishment of a suitable malaria control program in the area, malariometric surveys were conducted in two sub-districts, Wanokaka and Loli, during the periods of January, May, and August 2005. The survey included three selected villages in each sub-district, and blood smear analyses of 701, 921, and 894 randomly selected subjects in January, May, and August revealed 30.5%, 25.3%, and 28.2% malaria positives, respectively, consisting mainly of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, and in a few cases, P. malariae. Analysis of malaria prevalence at different age groups clearly reflected the common phenomenon that younger individuals are more vulnerable by infection of either P. falciparum or P. vivax. In falciparum malaria, the frequency of cases carrying gametocytes was also relatively high involving all age groups. The findings indicate that the malaria incidence and transmission in the area are relatively high and that further exploration is warranted to establish a precise malaria control program. PMID:16687671

  7. Malaria in Wanokaka and Loli sub-districts, West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Syafruddin, Din; Asih, Puji B S; Coutrier, Farah N; Trianty, Leily; Noviyanti, Rintis; Luase, Yaveth; Sumarto, Wajiyo; Caley, Marten; van der Ven, Andre J A M; Sauerwein, Robert W

    2006-05-01

    Malaria has long been known as one of the major public health problems in West Sumba District, East Nusa Tenggara Province, Indonesia. To obtain baseline data for establishment of a suitable malaria control program in the area, malariometric surveys were conducted in two sub-districts, Wanokaka and Loli, during the periods of January, May, and August 2005. The survey included three selected villages in each sub-district, and blood smear analyses of 701, 921, and 894 randomly selected subjects in January, May, and August revealed 30.5%, 25.3%, and 28.2% malaria positives, respectively, consisting mainly of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, and in a few cases, P. malariae. Analysis of malaria prevalence at different age groups clearly reflected the common phenomenon that younger individuals are more vulnerable by infection of either P. falciparum or P. vivax. In falciparum malaria, the frequency of cases carrying gametocytes was also relatively high involving all age groups. The findings indicate that the malaria incidence and transmission in the area are relatively high and that further exploration is warranted to establish a precise malaria control program.

  8. The Benefits and Costs of the Section 8 Housing Subsidy Program: A Framework and Estimates of First-Year Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carlson, Deven; Haveman, Robert; Kaplan, Thomas; Wolfe, Barbara

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides estimates for a comprehensive set of social benefits and costs associated with the federal Housing Choice Voucher (Section 8) program. The impact categories for which we provide empirical estimates include the value of the voucher to recipients; additional services and public benefits induced by voucher receipt; improvements in…

  9. Single-Dose Primaquine in a Preclinical Model of Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency: Implications for Use in Malaria Transmission-Blocking Programs.

    PubMed

    Wickham, Kristina S; Baresel, Paul C; Marcsisin, Sean R; Sousa, Jason; Vuong, Chau T; Reichard, Gregory A; Campo, Brice; Tekwani, Babu L; Walker, Larry A; Rochford, Rosemary

    2016-10-01

    Individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency (G6PDd) are at risk for developing hemolytic anemia when given the antimalarial drug primaquine (PQ). The WHO Evidence Review Group released a report suggesting that mass administration of a single dose of PQ at 0.25 mg of base/kg of body weight (mpk) (mouse equivalent of 3.125 mpk) could potentially reduce malaria transmission based on its gametocytocidal activity and could be safely administered to G6PD-deficient individuals, but there are limited safety data available confirming the optimum single dose of PQ. A single-dose administration of PQ was therefore assessed in our huRBC-SCID mouse model used to predict hemolytic toxicity with respect to G6PD deficiency. In this model, nonobese diabetic (NOD)/SCID mice are engrafted with human red blood cells (huRBC) from donors with the African or Mediterranean variant of G6PDd (A-G6PDd or Med-G6PDd, respectively) and demonstrate dose-dependent sensitivity to PQ. In mice engrafted with A-G6PD-deficient huRBC, single-dose PQ at 3.125, 6.25, or 12.5 mpk had no significant loss of huRBC compared to the vehicle control group. In contrast, in mice engrafted with Med-G6PDd huRBC, a single dose of PQ at 3.125, 6.25, or 12.5 mpk resulted in a significant, dose-dependent loss of huRBC compared to the value for the vehicle control group. Our data suggest that administration of a single low dose of 0.25 mpk of PQ could induce hemolytic anemia in Med-G6PDd individuals but that use of single-dose PQ at 0.25 mpk as a gametocytocidal drug to block transmission would be safe in areas where A-G6PDd predominates. PMID:27458212

  10. A data-input program (MFI2005) for the U.S. Geological Survey modular groundwater model (MODFLOW-2005) and parameter estimation program (UCODE_2005)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harbaugh, Arien W.

    2011-01-01

    The MFI2005 data-input (entry) program was developed for use with the U.S. Geological Survey modular three-dimensional finite-difference groundwater model, MODFLOW-2005. MFI2005 runs on personal computers and is designed to be easy to use; data are entered interactively through a series of display screens. MFI2005 supports parameter estimation using the UCODE_2005 program for parameter estimation. Data for MODPATH, a particle-tracking program for use with MODFLOW-2005, also can be entered using MFI2005. MFI2005 can be used in conjunction with other data-input programs so that the different parts of a model dataset can be entered by using the most suitable program.

  11. Serological testing in malaria*

    PubMed Central

    1974-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate, in a critical manner, various serological tests with general emphasis on their value in the epidemiological assessment of malaria. Several tests have been employed in the past. However, the present memorandum will deal only with the methods that have been widely used recently—i.e., indirect immunofluorescence (IFA), passive haemagglutination (IHA), and gel-diffusion. The three immunoglobulins most commonly involved in these tests are IgG, IgM, and—to a lesser extent—IgA. PMID:4218506

  12. [Fake malaria drugs].

    PubMed

    Bygbjerg, Ib Christian

    2009-03-01

    The literature on fake medicaments is sparse, even if approximately 15% of all medicaments are fake, a figure that for antimalarials in particular reaches 50% in parts of Africa and Asia. Sub-standard and fake medicines deplete the public's confidence in health systems, health professionals and in the pharmaceutical industry - and increase the risk that resistance develops. For a traveller coming from a rich Western country, choosing to buy e.g. preventive antimalarials over the internet or in poor malaria-endemic areas, the consequences may be fatal. International trade-, control- and police-collaboration is needed to manage the problem, as is the fight against poverty and poor governance.

  13. Bioorganometallic Chemistry and Malaria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biot, Christophe; Dive, Daniel

    This chapter summarizes recent developments in the design, synthesis, and structure-activity relationship studies of organometallic antimalarials. It begins with a general introduction to malaria and the biology of the parasite Plasmodium falciparum, with a focus on the heme detoxification system. Then, a number of metal complexes from the literature are reported for their antiplasmodial activity. The second half of the chapter deals with the serendipitous discovery of ferroquine, its mechanism(s) of action, and the failure to induce a resistance. Last, but not least, we suggest that the bioorganometallic approach offers the potential for the design of novel therapeutic agents.

  14. Estimating pressurized water reactor decommissioning costs: A user`s manual for the PWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software. Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.; Mencinsky, G.J.

    1993-10-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personnel computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning PWR plant stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  15. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs. A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1994-12-01

    With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  16. Estimating boiling water reactor decommissioning costs: A user`s manual for the BWR Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Bierschbach, M.C.

    1996-06-01

    Nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review their decommissioning cost estimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying Cost Estimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning boiling water reactor (BWR) power stations to the point of license termination. Such cost estimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

  17. A computer program for wing subsonic aerodynamic performance estimates including attainable thrust and vortex lift effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carlson, H. W.; Walkley, K. B.

    1982-01-01

    Numerical methods incorporated into a computer program to provide estimates of the subsonic aerodynamic performance of twisted and cambered wings of arbitrary planform with attainable thrust and vortex lift considerations are described. The computational system is based on a linearized theory lifting surface solution which provides a spanwise distribution of theoretical leading edge thrust in addition to the surface distribution of perturbation velocities. The approach used relies on a solution by iteration. The method also features a superposition of independent solutions for a cambered and twisted wing and a flat wing of the same planform to provide, at little additional expense, results for a large number of angles of attack or lift coefficients. A previously developed method is employed to assess the portion of the theoretical thrust actually attainable and the portion that is felt as a vortex normal force.

  18. Dynamic Programming and Error Estimates for Stochastic Control Problems with Maximum Cost

    SciTech Connect

    Bokanowski, Olivier; Picarelli, Athena; Zidani, Hasnaa

    2015-02-15

    This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach.

  19. Probabilistic Model Building Genetic Programming based on Estimation of Bayesian Network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hasegawa, Yoshihiko; Iba, Hitoshi

    Genetic Programming (GP) is a powerful optimization algorithm, which employs the crossover for genetic operation. Because the crossover operator in GP randomly selects sub-trees, the building blocks may be destroyed by the crossover. Recently, algorithms called PMBGPs (Probabilistic Model Building GP) based on probabilistic techniques have been proposed in order to improve the problem mentioned above. We propose a new PMBGP employing Bayesian network for generating new individuals with a special chromosome called expanded parse tree, which much reduces a number of possible symbols at each node. Although the large number of symbols gives rise to the large conditional probability table and requires a lot of samples to estimate the interactions among nodes, a use of the expanded parse tree overcomes these problems. Computational experiments on two subjects demonstrate that our new PMBGP is much superior to prior probabilistic models.

  20. Can plant biotechnology help break the HIV-malaria link?

    PubMed

    Vamvaka, E; Twyman, R M; Christou, P; Capell, T

    2014-01-01

    The population of sub-Saharan Africa is at risk from multiple, poverty-related endemic diseases. HIV and malaria are the most prevalent, but they disproportionately affect different groups of people, i.e. HIV predominantly affects sexually-active adults whereas malaria has a greater impact on children and pregnant women. Nevertheless, there is a significant geographical and epidemiological overlap which results in bidirectional and synergistic interactions with important consequences for public health. The immunosuppressive effects of HIV increase the risk of infection when individuals are exposed to malaria parasites and also the severity of malaria symptoms. Similarly, acute malaria can induce a temporary increase in the HIV viral load. HIV is associated with a wide range of opportunistic infections that can be misdiagnosed as malaria, resulting in the wasteful misuse of antimalarial drugs and a failure to address the genuine cause of the disease. There is also a cumulative risk of toxicity when antiretroviral and antimalarial drugs are given to the same patients. Synergistic approaches involving the control of malaria as a strategy to fight HIV/AIDS and vice versa are therefore needed in co-endemic areas. Plant biotechnology has emerged as a promising approach to tackle poverty-related diseases because plant-derived drugs and vaccines can be produced inexpensively in developing countries and may be distributed using agricultural infrastructure without the need for a cold chain. Here we explore some of the potential contributions of plant biotechnology and its integration into broader multidisciplinary public health programs to combat the two diseases in developing countries. PMID:24607600

  1. Can plant biotechnology help break the HIV-malaria link?

    PubMed

    Vamvaka, E; Twyman, R M; Christou, P; Capell, T

    2014-01-01

    The population of sub-Saharan Africa is at risk from multiple, poverty-related endemic diseases. HIV and malaria are the most prevalent, but they disproportionately affect different groups of people, i.e. HIV predominantly affects sexually-active adults whereas malaria has a greater impact on children and pregnant women. Nevertheless, there is a significant geographical and epidemiological overlap which results in bidirectional and synergistic interactions with important consequences for public health. The immunosuppressive effects of HIV increase the risk of infection when individuals are exposed to malaria parasites and also the severity of malaria symptoms. Similarly, acute malaria can induce a temporary increase in the HIV viral load. HIV is associated with a wide range of opportunistic infections that can be misdiagnosed as malaria, resulting in the wasteful misuse of antimalarial drugs and a failure to address the genuine cause of the disease. There is also a cumulative risk of toxicity when antiretroviral and antimalarial drugs are given to the same patients. Synergistic approaches involving the control of malaria as a strategy to fight HIV/AIDS and vice versa are therefore needed in co-endemic areas. Plant biotechnology has emerged as a promising approach to tackle poverty-related diseases because plant-derived drugs and vaccines can be produced inexpensively in developing countries and may be distributed using agricultural infrastructure without the need for a cold chain. Here we explore some of the potential contributions of plant biotechnology and its integration into broader multidisciplinary public health programs to combat the two diseases in developing countries.

  2. Ecotope-based entomological surveillance and molecular xenomonitoring of multidrug resistant malaria parasites in anopheles vectors.

    PubMed

    Sorosjinda-Nunthawarasilp, Prapa; Bhumiratana, Adisak

    2014-01-01

    parasites in hotspots or suspected areas established in most endemic GMS countries implementing the National Malaria Control Programs, in addition to what is guided by the World Health Organization.

  3. Ecotope-Based Entomological Surveillance and Molecular Xenomonitoring of Multidrug Resistant Malaria Parasites in Anopheles Vectors

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    parasites in hotspots or suspected areas established in most endemic GMS countries implementing the National Malaria Control Programs, in addition to what is guided by the World Health Organization. PMID:25349605

  4. Behavioral change communication strategy vital in malaria prevention interventions in rural communities: Nakasongola district, Uganda

    PubMed Central

    Mugisa, Margaret; Muzoora, Abel

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Malaria is a leading killer disease in Uganda and it accounts for significant morbidity in pregnant women and children. Pregnant women are more susceptible to malaria, which causes adverse effects including abortion, low birth weight and maternal anaemia. Children with severe malaria frequently develop one of these symptoms including: severe anaemia, respiratory distress, Prostration, convulsions and cerebral malaria. Due to the severity of the disease there is need for multiple interventions to reduce the disease burden. African Medical and Research Foundation (AMREF) adopted community based approaches to improve malaria prevention. Behavioral change communication (BCC) was fundamental at every process of Project implementation. This paper shares AMREF's experience in using BCC strategies amidst other interventions in malaria prevention approaches involving use of insecticide treated nets and environment management. Methods AMREF through a Malaria project (2007-2010) in Nakasongola district supported BCC activities through training, community mobilization, mass media, health promotion and advocacy. Program performance was measured through baseline and evaluation surveys in 2007 and 2010. Results The final project evaluation indicated improvement from baseline values as follows: knowledge on prevention of malaria among school children from 76.6% to 90%, under five children sleeping under bed net the previous night from 51% to 74.7%, and from 24% to 78% among pregnant women. Conclusion Mobilization of malaria prevention interventions can be successful once BCC approaches are adequately planned and coordinated. Malaria prevention through BCC strategies are likely to be more effective with integration of other malaria interventions, and involvement of community based structures. PMID:23467840

  5. Community knowledge and acceptance of larviciding for malaria control in a rural district of east-central Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Mboera, Leonard E G; Kramer, Randall A; Miranda, Marie Lynn; Kilima, Stella P; Shayo, Elizabeth H; Lesser, Adriane

    2014-05-01

    The use of microbial larvicides, a form of larval source management, is a less commonly used malaria control intervention that nonetheless has significant potential as a component of an integrated vector management strategy. We evaluated community acceptability of larviciding in a rural district in east-central Tanzania using data from 962 household surveys, 12 focus group discussions, and 24 in-depth interviews. Most survey respondents trusted in the safety (73.1%) and efficacy of larviciding, both with regards to mosquito control (92.3%) and to reduce malaria infection risk (91.9%). Probing these perceptions using a Likert scale provides a more detailed picture. Focus group participants and key informants were also receptive to larviciding, but stressed the importance of sensitization before its implementation. Overall, 73.4% of survey respondents expressed a willingness to make a nominal household contribution to a larviciding program, a proportion which decreased as the proposed contribution increased. The lower-bound mean willingness to pay is estimated at 2,934 Tanzanian Shillings (approximately US$1.76) per three month period. We present a multivariate probit regression analysis examining factors associated with willingness to pay. Overall, our findings point to a receptive environment in a rural setting in Tanzania for the use of microbial larvicides in malaria control. PMID:24830448

  6. Estimating magnitude and frequency of floods using the PeakFQ 7.0 program

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Veilleux, Andrea G.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Flynn, Kathleen M.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Hummel, Paul R.

    2014-01-01

    Flood-frequency analysis provides information about the magnitude and frequency of flood discharges based on records of annual maximum instantaneous peak discharges collected at streamgages. The information is essential for defining flood-hazard areas, for managing floodplains, and for designing bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other flood-control structures. Bulletin 17B (B17B) of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data (IACWD; 1982) codifies the standard methodology for conducting flood-frequency studies in the United States. B17B specifies that annual peak-flow data are to be fit to a log-Pearson Type III distribution. Specific methods are also prescribed for improving skew estimates using regional skew information, tests for high and low outliers, adjustments for low outliers and zero flows, and procedures for incorporating historical flood information. The authors of B17B identified various needs for methodological improvement and recommended additional study. In response to these needs, the Advisory Committee on Water Information (ACWI, successor to IACWD; http://acwi.gov/, Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH), Hydrologic Frequency Analysis Work Group (HFAWG), has recommended modest changes to B17B. These changes include adoption of a generalized method-of-moments estimator denoted the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA) (Cohn and others, 1997) and a generalized version of the Grubbs-Beck test for low outliers (Cohn and others, 2013). The SOH requested that the USGS implement these changes in a user-friendly, publicly accessible program.

  7. Estimating the benefits of pollution reduction on agricultural yields: Taiwan's air pollution emission fees program.

    PubMed

    Chen, Tser-yieth; Li, Chun-sheng

    2003-07-01

    Taiwan's implementation of the 1997 Air Pollution Emissions Fees Program will conceivably lead to long-term reductions in pollution emissions. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the benefits to Taiwan from the expected reduction in crop losses as a direct result of such a decrease in air pollution. We employ a demand-supply framework for rice production to estimate the change in social welfare resulting from changes in the concentration of certain pollutants in the atmosphere. Our empirical results show that, in the year 1997, social welfare increments resulting from the decline in sulfur dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere ranged between US dollars 946200 and US dollars 2435800. Meanwhile, during the same period, the increase in social welfare due to the decline in the ozone concentration in the atmosphere ranged between US dollars 838100 and US dollars 1927000. The average benefit from the reduction in both sulfur dioxide and ozone concentrations is calculated to be between US dollars 2.67 and US dollars 6.86 per acre (for sulfur dioxide), and from US dollars 2.36 to US dollars 5.43 per acre (for ozone). PMID:12837257

  8. Measuring the Association between Artemisinin-Based Case Management and Malaria Incidence in Southern Vietnam, 1991–2010

    PubMed Central

    Peak, Corey M.; Thuan, Phung Duc; Britton, Amadea; Nguyen, Tran Dang; Wolbers, Marcel; Thanh, Ngo Viet; Buckee, Caroline O.; Boni, Maciej F.

    2015-01-01

    In addition to being effective, fast-acting, and well tolerated, artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are able to kill certain transmission stages of the malaria parasite. However, the population-level impacts of ACTs on reducing malaria transmission have been difficult to assess. In this study on the history of malaria control in Vietnam, we assemble annual reporting on malaria case counts, coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), and drug purchases by provincial malaria control programs from 1991 to 2010 in Vietnam's 20 southern provinces. We observe a significant negative association between artemisinin use and malaria incidence, with a 10% absolute increase in the purchase proportion of artemisinin-containing regimens being associated with a 29.1% (95% confidence interval: 14.8–41.0%) reduction in slide-confirmed malaria incidence, after accounting for changes in urbanization, ITN/IRS coverage, and two indicators of health system capacity. One budget-related indicator of health system capacity was found to have a smaller association with malaria incidence, and no other significant factors were found. Our findings suggest that including an artemisinin component in malaria drug regimens was strongly associated with reduced malaria incidence in southern Vietnam, whereas changes in urbanization and coverage with ITN or IRS were not. PMID:25667053

  9. How can we determine the molecular clock of malaria parasites?

    PubMed

    Bensch, Staffan; Hellgren, Olof; Križanauskienė, Asta; Palinauskas, Vaidas; Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Outlaw, Diana; Ricklefs, Robert E

    2013-08-01

    The association of contemporary hosts and their parasites might reflect either cospeciation or more recent shifts among existing hosts. Cospeciation implies that lineages of hosts and parasites diverge in parallel at the same time, but testing this prediction requires time-calibrated phylogenies, which are particularly difficult to obtain in organisms that leave few fossils. It has successively become clear that host shifts have been frequent in the evolutionary history of malaria parasites, but dating these host shifts cannot be done without calibrated phylogenies. Hence, it remains unresolved how long contemporary hosts and vectors have been coevolving with their malaria parasites. This review addresses conflicting rate estimates of molecular evolution and suggests research directions to aid dating diversification events in malaria parasites.

  10. Malaria indicator survey 2007, Ethiopia: coverage and use of major malaria prevention and control interventions

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background In 2005, a nationwide survey estimated that 6.5% of households in Ethiopia owned an insecticide-treated net (ITN), 17% of households had been sprayed with insecticide, and 4% of children under five years of age with a fever were taking an anti-malarial drug. Similar to other sub-Saharan African countries scaling-up malaria interventions, the Government of Ethiopia set an ambitious national goal in 2005 to (i) provide 100% ITN coverage in malarious areas, with a mean of two ITNs per household; (ii) to scale-up indoor residual spraying of households with insecticide (IRS) to cover 30% of households targeted for IRS; and (iii) scale-up the provision of case management with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), particularly at the peripheral level. Methods A nationally representative malaria indicator survey (MIS) was conducted in Ethiopia between September and December 2007 to determine parasite and anaemia prevalence in the population at risk and to assess coverage, use and access to scaled-up malaria prevention and control interventions. The survey used a two-stage random cluster sample of 7,621 households in 319 census enumeration areas. A total of 32,380 people participated in the survey. Data was collected using standardized Roll Back Malaria Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group MIS household and women's questionnaires, which were adapted to the local context. Results Data presented is for households in malarious areas, which according to the Ethiopian Federal Ministry of Health are defined as being located <2,000 m altitude. Of 5,083 surveyed households, 3,282 (65.6%) owned at least one ITN. In ITN-owning households, 53.2% of all persons had slept under an ITN the prior night, including 1,564/2,496 (60.1%) children <5 years of age, 1,891/3,009 (60.9%) of women 15 - 49 years of age, and 166/266 (65.7%) of pregnant women. Overall, 906 (20.0%) households reported to have had IRS in the past 12 months. Of 747

  11. Community Perceptions and Practices about Malaria Prevention and Control in Iran

    PubMed Central

    RAKHSHANI, Fatemeh; ANSARI-MOGHADAM, Alireza; MOHAMMADI, Mahdi; RANJBAR, Mansoor; RAEISI, Ahmad; RAKHSHANI, Tayebeh

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background General knowledge of at risk people regarding malaria is key element to facilitate appropriate treatment and prevention behaviours. The aim of this study was to assess the family heads' understanding of malaria transmission, signs and symptoms, and preventive measures in malaria-affected districts of Iran. Method In 2009 in a cluster randomized cross-sectional survey data were collected from the heads of 5,466 randomly selected households by trained interviewers and a validated questionnaire. Only one adult person was interviewed per household Once all the information collected and entered to the SPSS Ver. 18 analysis was done and descriptive statistics were used to summarize results. Point estimates and 95% confidence intervals were also estimated for indicators. Results 63.8% [95% CI: 62.2 - 65.4] of the participants recognized fever as a sign of malaria, 56.4% [95% CI: 54.6 - 58.2] reported that mosquito bites cause malaria and about 35% [95% CI: 32.7 - 37.1] of participants mentioned that the use of mosquito nets could prevent malaria. Furthermore, about one-third of selected samples in target districts did not know symptoms, transmission route and appropriate prevention method of malaria. Data also suggests a slight variation by residency, but substantial discrepancy according to the region. Conclusions General knowledge of respondents concerning malaria is too far from the levels required to be constructive for malaria elimination. Therefore, the survey suggests developing, and implementing effective health promotion policies to increase the awareness of households about the symptoms, transmission route and control measures of malaria. PMID:26060681

  12. Impact of Daily Cotrimoxazole on Clinical Malaria and Asymptomatic Parasitemias in HIV-Exposed, Uninfected Infants

    PubMed Central

    Davis, Nicole L.; Barnett, Eric J.; Miller, William C.; Dow, Anna; Chasela, Charles S.; Hudgens, Michael G.; Kayira, Dumbani; Tegha, Gerald; Ellington, Sascha R.; Kourtis, Athena P.; van der Horst, Charles; Jamieson, Denise J.; Juliano, Jonathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (CPT) is recommended for all human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–exposed infants to avoid opportunistic infections. Cotrimoxazole has antimalarial effects and appears to reduce clinical malaria infections, but the impact on asymptomatic malaria infections is unknown. Methods. We conducted an observational cohort study using data and dried blood spots (DBSs) from the Breastfeeding, Antiretrovirals and Nutrition study to evaluate the impact of CPT on malaria infection during peak malaria season in Lilongwe, Malawi. We compared malaria incidence 1 year before and after CPT implementation (292 and 682 CPT-unexposed and CPT-exposed infants, respectively), including only infants who remained HIV negative by 36 weeks of age. Malaria was defined as clinical, asymptomatic (using DBSs at 12, 24, and 36 weeks), or a composite outcome of clinical or asymptomatic. Linear and binomial regression with generalized estimating equations were used to estimate the association between CPT and malaria. Differences in characteristics of parasitemias and drug resistance polymorphisms by CPT status were also assessed in the asymptomatic infections. Results. CPT was associated with a 70% (95% confidence interval, 53%–81%) relative reduction in the risk of asymptomatic infection between 6 and 36 weeks of age. CPT appeared to provide temporary protection against clinical malaria and more sustained protection against asymptomatic infections, with no difference in parasitemia characteristics. Conclusions. CPT appears to reduce overall malaria infections, with more prolonged impacts on asymptomatic infections. Asymptomatic infections are potentially important reservoirs for malaria transmission. Therefore, CPT prophylaxis may have important individual and public health benefits. PMID:25900173

  13. "Malaria and Primary education in Mali: a longitudinal study in the village of Donéguébougou."

    PubMed Central

    Sissoko, Mahamadou S; Toure, Ousmane B; Kamate, Paul; Berthelemy, Jean-Claude; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2010-01-01

    This article assesses the role of malaria and certain social determinants on primary education, especially on educational achievement in Donéguébougou, a small village in a malaria-endemic area near Bamako, Mali. Field data was collected by the authors between November 2007 and June 2008 on 227 schoolchildren living in Donéguébougou. Various malaria indicators and econometric models were used to explain the variation in cognitive abilities, teachers' evaluation scores, school progression and absences. Malaria is the primary cause of school absences. Fixed effects estimates showed that asymptomatic malaria and the presence of falciparum malaria parasites had a direct correlation with educational achievement and cognitive performance. The evidence suggests that the correlation is causal. PMID:20413198

  14. A reduced successive quadratic programming strategy for errors-in-variables estimation.

    SciTech Connect

    Tjoa, I.-B.; Biegler, L. T.; Carnegie-Mellon Univ.

    1992-01-01

    Parameter estimation problems in process engineering represent a special class of nonlinear optimization problems, because the maximum likelihood structure of the objective function can be exploited. Within this class, the errors in variables method (EVM) is particularly interesting. Here we seek a weighted least-squares fit to the measurements with an underdetermined process model. Thus, both the number of variables and degrees of freedom available for optimization increase linearly with the number of data sets. Large optimization problems of this type can be particularly challenging and expensive to solve because, for general-purpose nonlinear programming (NLP) algorithms, the computational effort increases at least quadratically with problem size. In this study we develop a tailored NLP strategy for EVM problems. The method is based on a reduced Hessian approach to successive quadratic programming (SQP), but with the decomposition performed separately for each data set. This leads to the elimination of all variables but the model parameters, which are determined by a QP coordination step. In this way the computational effort remains linear in the number of data sets. Moreover, unlike previous approaches to the EVM problem, global and superlinear properties of the SQP algorithm apply naturally. Also, the method directly incorporates inequality constraints on the model parameters (although not on the fitted variables). This approach is demonstrated on five example problems with up to 102 degrees of freedom. Compared to general-purpose NLP algorithms, large improvements in computational performance are observed.

  15. Statistical Trajectory Estimation Program (STEP) implementation for BLDT post flight trajectory simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shields, W. E.

    1973-01-01

    Tests were conducted to provide flight conditions for qualifying the Viking Decelerator System in a simulated Mars environment. A balloon launched decelerator test (BLDT) vehicle which has an external shape similar to the actual Mars Viking Lander Capsule was used so that the decelerator would be deployed in the wake of a blunt body. An effort was made to simulate the BLDT vehicle flights from the time they were dropped from the balloon, through decelerator deployment, until stable decelerator conditions were reached. The procedure used to simulate these flights using the Statistical Trajectory Estimation Program (STEP) is discussed. Using primarily ground-based position radar and vehicle onboard rate gyro and accelerometer data, the STEP produces a minimum variance solution of the vehicle trajectory and calculates vehicle attitude histories. Using film from cameras in the vehicle along with a computer program, attitude histories for portions of the flight before and after decelerator deployment were calculated independent of the STEP simulation. With the assumption that the vehicle motions derived from camera data are accurate, a comparison reveals that STEP was able to simulate vehicle motions for all flights both before and after decelerator deployment.

  16. Clinical immunity to malaria.

    PubMed

    Schofield, Louis; Mueller, Ivo

    2006-03-01

    Under appropriate conditions of transmission intensity, functional immunity to malaria appears to be acquired in distinct stages. The first phase reduces the likelihood of severe or fatal disease; the second phase limits the clinical impact of 'mild' malaria; and the third provides partial but incomplete protection against pathogen burden. These findings suggest clinical immunity to mortality and morbidity is acquired earlier, with greater ease, and via distinct mechanisms as compared to anti-parasite immunity, which is more difficult to achieve, takes longer and is only ever partially efficacious. The implications of this view are significant in that current vaccination strategies aim predominantly to achieve anti-parasite immunity, although imparting clinical immunity is the public health objective. Despite enormous relevance for global public health, the mechanisms governing these processes remain obscure. Four candidate mechanisms might mediate clinical immunity, namely immunity to cytoadherence determinants, tolerance to toxins, acquired immunity to toxins, and immunoregulation. This review addresses the targets and determinants of clinical immunity, and considers the implications for vaccine development.

  17. Healthy malaria control.

    PubMed

    Mathen, K

    1998-01-01

    According to an article in the May 27, 1998, issue of the Times of India, Dr. Menno Jan Bouma, an epidemiologist from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has suggested spraying India's cows, goats, and buffaloes with insecticide in a bid to combat malaria. This strategy, however, fails to fully consider what is currently known about insect behavior, insecticides' modes of action, and the interaction between the two in the environment. A population of insects can ultimately develop resistance and adapt to the repeated onslaught of insecticides. Furthermore, each type of insecticide which could potentially be used has its own set of problems with regard to the environment, the products into which they break down, and how they affect wildlife and humans. The once commonplace spraying of livestock in the West led to Mad Cow Disease, Chicken Flu, and other problems. India's meat and dairy products will definitely be contaminated should the country's livestock be sprayed with insecticides. In the long-term interest of humankind, efforts must be made to contain, not eradicate, mosquitoes and malaria. PMID:12348880

  18. Ungulate malaria parasites

    PubMed Central

    Templeton, Thomas J.; Asada, Masahito; Jiratanh, Montakan; Ishikawa, Sohta A.; Tiawsirisup, Sonthaya; Sivakumar, Thillaiampalam; Namangala, Boniface; Takeda, Mika; Mohkaew, Kingdao; Ngamjituea, Supawan; Inoue, Noboru; Sugimoto, Chihiro; Inagaki, Yuji; Suzuki, Yasuhiko; Yokoyama, Naoaki; Kaewthamasorn, Morakot; Kaneko, Osamu

    2016-01-01

    Haemosporida parasites of even-toed ungulates are diverse and globally distributed, but since their discovery in 1913 their characterization has relied exclusively on microscopy-based descriptions. In order to bring molecular approaches to bear on the identity and evolutionary relationships of ungulate malaria parasites, we conducted Plasmodium cytb-specific nested PCR surveys using blood from water buffalo in Vietnam and Thailand, and goats in Zambia. We found that Plasmodium is readily detectable from water buffalo in these countries, indicating that buffalo Plasmodium is distributed in a wider region than India, which is the only area in which buffalo Plasmodium has been reported. Two types (I and II) of Plasmodium sequences were identified from water buffalo and a third type (III) was isolated from goat. Morphology of the parasite was confirmed in Giemsa-reagent stained blood smears for the Type I sample. Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences were isolated and used to infer a phylogeny in which ungulate malaria parasites form a monophyletic clade within the Haemosporida, and branch prior to the clade containing bird, lizard and other mammalian Plasmodium. Thus it is likely that host switching of Plasmodium from birds to mammals occurred multiple times, with a switch to ungulates independently from other mammalian Plasmodium. PMID:26996979

  19. Ungulate malaria parasites.

    PubMed

    Templeton, Thomas J; Asada, Masahito; Jiratanh, Montakan; Ishikawa, Sohta A; Tiawsirisup, Sonthaya; Sivakumar, Thillaiampalam; Namangala, Boniface; Takeda, Mika; Mohkaew, Kingdao; Ngamjituea, Supawan; Inoue, Noboru; Sugimoto, Chihiro; Inagaki, Yuji; Suzuki, Yasuhiko; Yokoyama, Naoaki; Kaewthamasorn, Morakot; Kaneko, Osamu

    2016-01-01

    Haemosporida parasites of even-toed ungulates are diverse and globally distributed, but since their discovery in 1913 their characterization has relied exclusively on microscopy-based descriptions. In order to bring molecular approaches to bear on the identity and evolutionary relationships of ungulate malaria parasites, we conducted Plasmodium cytb-specific nested PCR surveys using blood from water buffalo in Vietnam and Thailand, and goats in Zambia. We found that Plasmodium is readily detectable from water buffalo in these countries, indicating that buffalo Plasmodium is distributed in a wider region than India, which is the only area in which buffalo Plasmodium has been reported. Two types (I and II) of Plasmodium sequences were identified from water buffalo and a third type (III) was isolated from goat. Morphology of the parasite was confirmed in Giemsa-reagent stained blood smears for the Type I sample. Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences were isolated and used to infer a phylogeny in which ungulate malaria parasites form a monophyletic clade within the Haemosporida, and branch prior to the clade containing bird, lizard and other mammalian Plasmodium. Thus it is likely that host switching of Plasmodium from birds to mammals occurred multiple times, with a switch to ungulates independently from other mammalian Plasmodium.

  20. Ungulate malaria parasites.

    PubMed

    Templeton, Thomas J; Asada, Masahito; Jiratanh, Montakan; Ishikawa, Sohta A; Tiawsirisup, Sonthaya; Sivakumar, Thillaiampalam; Namangala, Boniface; Takeda, Mika; Mohkaew, Kingdao; Ngamjituea, Supawan; Inoue, Noboru; Sugimoto, Chihiro; Inagaki, Yuji; Suzuki, Yasuhiko; Yokoyama, Naoaki; Kaewthamasorn, Morakot; Kaneko, Osamu

    2016-01-01

    Haemosporida parasites of even-toed ungulates are diverse and globally distributed, but since their discovery in 1913 their characterization has relied exclusively on microscopy-based descriptions. In order to bring molecular approaches to bear on the identity and evolutionary relationships of ungulate malaria parasites, we conducted Plasmodium cytb-specific nested PCR surveys using blood from water buffalo in Vietnam and Thailand, and goats in Zambia. We found that Plasmodium is readily detectable from water buffalo in these countries, indicating that buffalo Plasmodium is distributed in a wider region than India, which is the only area in which buffalo Plasmodium has been reported. Two types (I and II) of Plasmodium sequences were identified from water buffalo and a third type (III) was isolated from goat. Morphology of the parasite was confirmed in Giemsa-reagent stained blood smears for the Type I sample. Complete mitochondrial DNA sequences were isolated and used to infer a phylogeny in which ungulate malaria parasites form a monophyletic clade within the Haemosporida, and branch prior to the clade containing bird, lizard and other mammalian Plasmodium. Thus it is likely that host switching of Plasmodium from birds to mammals occurred multiple times, with a switch to ungulates independently from other mammalian Plasmodium. PMID:26996979

  1. Child malaria in sub-saharan Africa: effective control and prevention require a health promotion approach.

    PubMed

    Houeto, David; Deccache, Alain

    Malaria remains a vital concern of child survival in sub-Saharan Africa despite the existence of effective curative and preventive measures. It is known that child malaria is underpinned by factors such as socioeconomic, cultural, environmental, and so forth, that must be considered simultaneously in order to effectively control it. This study applied to a rural community in Benin (West Africa) the Health Promotion concept (community participation and empowerment, contextualism, intersectorality, multistrategy, equity, and sustainability) to develop a program in order to control child malaria and close the gap of unsuccessful programs. The study design was a quasi-experimental pre-post conducted over a period of 27 months. As results, 80% of the community members participated in six of the seven sub-projects planned. The prevalence of fever (malaria) was significantly reduced after the intervention (p = 0.008). The recourse to adequate health care has significantly increased after the intervention (chi2 = 48.07, p = 0.000000). All these contributed to a statistically significant reduction of children deaths due to malaria (p = 0.001) in the village. Health Promotion strategies are likely to contribute to sustainable malaria programs' implementation that reduce malaria incidence and deaths in children under five. PMID:18644764

  2. State-level evaluations of the Weatherization Assistance Program in 1990-1996: a metaevaluation that estimates national savings

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, L.

    1997-01-01

    The DOE Weatherization Assistance Program is one of the largest energy conservation programs in the nation. To obtain an updated estimate of national Program savings, an approach of metaevaluation was selected, which involved locating, assembling, and summarizing the results of all state-level evaluations of the Program that have become available since 1990. All of the savings estimates that are presented in this report are for dwellings that heat primarily with natural gas.This review of the state-level evaluations conducted since 1990 concluded that Program performance has improved significantly in the last seven years. The finding that savings are increasing are supported by a literature review, within-state comparisons of savings over time, and regression modeling results.

  3. A Systems Thinking Framework for Assessing and Addressing Malaria Locally: An Alternative to the Globalization of Anti-Malaria Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willis, Derek W.

    2010-01-01

    This dissertation analyzes a decision system that was used in the early 1900s in the Federated Malay States (FMS) by Malcolm Watson in order to make anti-malaria program recommendations to decision makers in a wide range of ecological settings. Watson's recommendations to decision makers throughout the FMS led to a dramatic suppression of malaria…

  4. Ranking of elimination feasibility between malaria-endemic countries

    PubMed Central

    Tatem, Andrew J; Smith, David L; Gething, Peter W; Kabaria, Caroline W; Snow, Robert W; Hay, Simon I

    2010-01-01

    Summary Experience gained from the Global Malaria Eradication Program (1955–72) identified a set of shared technical and operational factors that enabled some countries to successfully eliminate malaria. Spatial data for these factors were assembled for all malaria-endemic countries and combined to provide an objective, relative ranking of countries by technical, operational, and combined elimination feasibility. The analysis was done separately for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, and the limitations of the approach were discussed. The relative rankings suggested that malaria elimination would be most feasible in countries in the Americas and Asia, and least feasible in countries in central and west Africa. The results differed when feasibility was measured by technical or operational factors, highlighting the different types of challenge faced by each country. The results are not intended to be prescriptive, predictive, or to provide absolute assessments of feasibility, but they do show that spatial information is available to facilitate evidence-based assessments of the relative feasibility of malaria elimination by country that can be rapidly updated. PMID:21035838

  5. African heads of state promise action against malaria.

    PubMed

    Yamey, G

    2000-05-01

    Heads of state of Africa signed a pledge to reduce the continent's malaria mortality by 50% by 2110 at an international summit of Malaria in Abuja, Nigeria. The primary focus of the malaria control program will be insecticide-treated bednets. The WHO wants a 30-fold increase in the availability of bednets in the next 5 years, as well as immediate access to cheap and effective antimalarial combination therapy for families at risk of malaria, including pregnant women. Malaria control requires annual donations of US$1 billion from industrialized countries. However, donations alone will be insufficient unless there is immediate debt cancellation, says Jeffrey Sachs, director of the Center for International Development at Harvard. The World Bank also raised criticisms concerning the US$150 million annual donation. In response, Ok Pannenborg of the World Bank stated that there are 100 World Bank operations all over Africa and its US$150 million annual donation for African malarial control projects is money they can use, but whether they use it is another matter. PMID:10797028

  6. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  7. Shape of Key Malaria Protein Could Help Improve Vaccine Efficacy

    MedlinePlus

    ... Malaria > Research Malaria Understanding Research NIAID Role Basic Biology Prevention and Control Strategies Strategic Partnerships and Research ... the malaria parasite. Related Links Global Research​ Vector Biology International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) ...

  8. Online biomedical resources for malaria-related red cell disorders.

    PubMed

    Piel, Frédéric B; Howes, Rosalind E; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Moyes, Catherine L; Williams, Thomas N; Weatherall, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2013-07-01

    Warnings about the expected increase of the global public health burden of malaria-related red cell disorders are accruing. Past and present epidemiological data are necessary to track spatial and temporal changes in the frequencies of these genetic disorders. A number of open access biomedical databases including data on malaria-related red cell disorders have been launched over the last two decades. Here, we review the content of these databases, most of which focus on genetic diversity, and we describe a new epidemiological resource developed by the Malaria Atlas Project. To tackle upcoming public health challenges, the integration of epidemiological and genetic data is important. As many countries are considering implementing national screening programs, strategies to make such data more accessible are also needed.

  9. Malaria in pregnancy: access to effective interventions in Africa.

    PubMed

    Yartey, J E

    2006-09-01

    Malaria infection during pregnancy (MIP) poses substantial risks to the mother, her fetus and the newborn. Consequences of MIP include severe anemia, placental parasitemia and intrauterine growth retardation, which contribute to low birth weight, a principal cause of infant mortality in the African region. Effective interventions for the prevention and control of MIP include Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), Insecticide treated nets (ITNs), and case management, and are being deployed by countries. The global political and fiscal environment is favorable with increasing resources to support the scale-up of interventions. What is needed at country level is strong collaboration among malaria and reproductive health programs and partners, to maximize the use of available resources for scaling-up to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Equally important is the need for continuous advocacy at all levels to keep malaria high on the global agenda and maintain the current global commitment and momentum.

  10. [Malaria in the central highlands of Madagascar: control strategies].

    PubMed

    Rabarijaona, L P; Rabe, T; Ranaivo, L H; Raharimalala, L A; Rakotomanana, F; Rakotondraibe, E M; Ramarosandratana, B; Rakotoson, J D; Rakotonjanabelo, L A; Tafangy, P B

    2006-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to present data on malaria in the central highland plateaux of Madagascar and strategies to improve the national malaria control program. Use of rapid diagnosis strips, early home-based fever management with pre-packaged chloroquine treatment kits and proposed new therapeutic combination based on artemisinine are discussed for management of patients with high suspicion of malaria attack. Preventive measures including alternated targeted and full-house indoor spraying for vector control, use of insecticide-impregnated bednets, implementation of intermittent preventive treatment in risk groups, optimization of the epidemic early detection and warning system using the Lot Quality Assurance Sampling method for epidemiological investigation if the alert threshold is exceeded, and provision of rapid diagnosis strips are presented.

  11. Online Biomedical Resources for Malaria-Related Red Cell Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Piel, Frédéric B; Howes, Rosalind E; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Moyes, Catherine L; Williams, Thomas N; Weatherall, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2013-01-01

    Warnings about the expected increase of the global public health burden of malaria-related red cell disorders are accruing. Past and present epidemiological data are necessary to track spatial and temporal changes in the frequencies of these genetic disorders. A number of open access biomedical databases including data on malaria-related red cell disorders have been launched over the last two decades. Here, we review the content of these databases, most of which focus on genetic diversity, and we describe a new epidemiological resource developed by the Malaria Atlas Project. To tackle upcoming public health challenges, the integration of epidemiological and genetic data is important. As many countries are considering implementing national screening programs, strategies to make such data more accessible are also needed. PMID:23568771

  12. Online biomedical resources for malaria-related red cell disorders.

    PubMed

    Piel, Frédéric B; Howes, Rosalind E; Nyangiri, Oscar A; Moyes, Catherine L; Williams, Thomas N; Weatherall, David J; Hay, Simon I

    2013-07-01

    Warnings about the expected increase of the global public health burden of malaria-related red cell disorders are accruing. Past and present epidemiological data are necessary to track spatial and temporal changes in the frequencies of these genetic disorders. A number of open access biomedical databases including data on malaria-related red cell disorders have been launched over the last two decades. Here, we review the content of these databases, most of which focus on genetic diversity, and we describe a new epidemiological resource developed by the Malaria Atlas Project. To tackle upcoming public health challenges, the integration of epidemiological and genetic data is important. As many countries are considering implementing national screening programs, strategies to make such data more accessible are also needed. PMID:23568771

  13. Malaria vector control: from past to future.

    PubMed

    Raghavendra, Kamaraju; Barik, Tapan K; Reddy, B P Niranjan; Sharma, Poonam; Dash, Aditya P

    2011-04-01

    Malaria is one of the most common vector-borne diseases widespread in the tropical and subtropical regions. Despite considerable success of malaria control programs in the past, malaria still continues as a major public health problem in several countries. Vector control is an essential part for reducing malaria transmission and became less effective in recent years, due to many technical and administrative reasons, including poor or no adoption of alternative tools. Of the different strategies available for vector control, the most successful are indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), including long-lasting ITNs and materials. Earlier DDT spray has shown spectacular success in decimating disease vectors but resulted in development of insecticide resistance, and to control the resistant mosquitoes, organophosphates, carbamates, and synthetic pyrethroids were introduced in indoor residual spraying with needed success but subsequently resulted in the development of widespread multiple insecticide resistance in vectors. Vector control in many countries still use insecticides in the absence of viable alternatives. Few developments for vector control, using ovitraps, space spray, biological control agents, etc., were encouraging when used in limited scale. Likewise, recent introduction of safer vector control agents, such as insect growth regulators, biocontrol agents, and natural plant products have yet to gain the needed scale of utility for vector control. Bacterial pesticides are promising and are effective in many countries. Environmental management has shown sufficient promise for vector control and disease management but still needs advocacy for inter-sectoral coordination and sometimes are very work-intensive. The more recent genetic manipulation and sterile insect techniques are under development and consideration for use in routine vector control and for these, standardized procedures and methods are available but need thorough

  14. [Plan to improve malaria control towards its elimination in Mesoamerica].

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Mario Henry; Betanzos-Reyes, Angel Francisco

    2011-01-01

    To develop a plan to strengthen the control of malaria towards its elimination. In 2009, under the coordination of the National Public HealthInstitute ofMexico, atransdisciplinary equipment of technical and operative experts was conformed to carry out a situational analysis of malaria and control programs and for the selection of effective practices of intervention that would be incorporated to the plan, within the framework of an exercise in Theory of Change. Criteria for thestratificationof thelocalities, based ontheirtransmission characteristics were established. The structural and operative limitations of the control programs were identified. A plan of interventions was elaborated to improve the coverage of epidemiological surveillance, anti-malaria interventions and opportune diagnosis and treatment of cases. The plan delineates progressive phases of implementation: reorganization, intensification of interventions and evaluation of elimination feasibility. The adoption of a regional strategic plan will provide guidance and administrative elements to conform a system that coordinates the activities of the national control programs and facilitate the elimination of malaria in the region.

  15. Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the WHO: conclusions and recommendations of September 2013 meeting

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its fourth meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 11 to 13 September, 2013. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and recommendations from that meeting. Meeting sessions included: recommendations for achieving universal coverage of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets; guidance on estimating the longevity of insecticide-treated nets; improving capacity in entomology and vector control; a review of the latest evidence on intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy; improving dissemination of Malaria Policy Advisory Committee guidance; updates on the development of the global technical strategy for malaria control and elimination (2016–2025) and the global strategy for control and elimination of Plasmodium vivax; updates from the drug resistance and containment technical expert group, the evidence review group on malaria burden estimation, a consultation on malaria case management indicators, and the constitution of the surveillance, monitoring and evaluation technical expert group; subnational elimination criteria; and consideration for future evidence review groups, including diagnosis in low transmission settings and testing for Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency. Policy statements, position statements and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme. PMID:24359206

  16. Malaria ecology and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  17. Malaria Prophylaxis: A Comprehensive Review

    PubMed Central

    Castelli, Francesco; Odolini, Silvia; Autino, Beatrice; Foca, Emanuele; Russo, Rosario

    2010-01-01

    The flow of international travellers to and from malaria-endemic areas, especially Africa, has increased in recent years. Apart from the very high morbidity and mortality burden imposed on malaria-endemic areas, imported malaria is the main cause of fever possibly causing severe disease and death in travellers coming from tropical and subtropical areas, particularly Sub-Saharan Africa. The importance of behavioural preventive measures (bed nets, repellents, etc.), adequate chemoprophylaxis and, in selected circumstances, stand-by emergency treatment may not be overemphasized. However, no prophylactic regimen may offer complete protection. Expert advice is needed to tailor prophylactic advice according to traveller (age, baseline clinical conditions, etc.) and travel (destination, season, etc.) characteristics in order to reduce malaria risk.

  18. Re-emergence of malaria in India.

    PubMed

    Sharma, V P

    1996-01-01

    Malaria was nearly eradicated from India in the early 1960s but the disease has re-emerged as a major public health problem. Early set backs in malaria eradication coincided with DDT shortages. Later in the 1960s and 1970s malaria resurgence was the result of technical, financial and operational problems. In the late 1960s malaria cases in urban areas started to multiply, and upsurge of malaria was widespread. As a result in 1976, 6.45 million cases were recorded by the National Malaria Eradication Programme (NMEP), highest since resurgence. The implementation of urban malaria scheme (UMS) in 1971-72 and the modified plan of operation (MPO) in 1977 improved the malaria situation for 5-6 yr. Malaria cases were reduced to about 2 million. The impact was mainly on vivax malaria. Easy availability of drugs under the MPO prevented deaths due to malaria and reduced morbidity, a peculiar feature of malaria during the resurgence. The Plasmodium falciparum containment programme (PfCP) launched in 1977 to contain the spread of falciparum malaria reduced falciparum malaria in the areas where the containment programme was operated but its general spread could not be contained. P. falciparum showed a steady upward trend during the 1970s and thereafter. Rising trend of malaria was facilitated by developments in various sectors to improve the national economy under successive 5 year plans. Malaria at one time a rural disease, diversified under the pressure of developments into various ecotypes. These ecotypes have been identified as forest malaria, urban malaria, rural malaria, industrial malaria, border malaria and migration malaria; the latter cutting across boundaries of various epidemiological types. Further, malaria in the 1990s has returned with new features not witnessed during the pre-eradication days. These are the vector resistance to insecticide(s); pronounced exophilic vector behaviour; extensive vector breeding grounds created principally by the water resource

  19. [Malaria and intestinal protozoa].

    PubMed

    Rojo-Marcos, Gerardo; Cuadros-González, Juan

    2016-03-01

    Malaria is life threatening and requires urgent diagnosis and treatment. Incidence and mortality are being reduced in endemic areas. Clinical features are unspecific so in imported cases it is vital the history of staying in a malarious area. The first line treatments for Plasmodium falciparum are artemisinin combination therapies, chloroquine in most non-falciparum and intravenous artesunate if any severity criteria. Human infections with intestinal protozoa are distributed worldwide with a high global morbid-mortality. They cause diarrhea and sometimes invasive disease, although most are asymptomatic. In our environment populations at higher risk are children, including adopted abroad, immune-suppressed, travelers, immigrants, people in contact with animals or who engage in oral-anal sex. Diagnostic microscopic examination has low sensitivity improving with antigen detection or molecular methods. Antiparasitic resistances are emerging lately. PMID:26832999

  20. [Malaria and intestinal protozoa].

    PubMed

    Rojo-Marcos, Gerardo; Cuadros-González, Juan

    2016-03-01

    Malaria is life threatening and requires urgent diagnosis and treatment. Incidence and mortality are being reduced in endemic areas. Clinical features are unspecific so in imported cases it is vital the history of staying in a malarious area. The first line treatments for Plasmodium falciparum are artemisinin combination therapies, chloroquine in most non-falciparum and intravenous artesunate if any severity criteria. Human infections with intestinal protozoa are distributed worldwide with a high global morbid-mortality. They cause diarrhea and sometimes invasive disease, although most are asymptomatic. In our environment populations at higher risk are children, including adopted abroad, immune-suppressed, travelers, immigrants, people in contact with animals or who engage in oral-anal sex. Diagnostic microscopic examination has low sensitivity improving with antigen detection or molecular methods. Antiparasitic resistances are emerging lately.

  1. Climate change and malaria transmission.

    PubMed

    Lindsay, S W; Birley, M H

    1996-12-01

    There is a consensus among climatologists that our planet is experiencing a progressive rise in surface temperature due to the increased production of "greenhouse" gases. Some of the possible consequences of elevated temperature on malaria transmission are examined in the present review. A simple mathematical model is first used to examine the effect of temperature on the ability of Anopheles maculipennis to transmit vivax malaria. This indicates that small increases in temperature at low temperatures may increase the risk of transmission substantially. This is important, since vulnerable communities, poorly protected by health services, in areas of unstable or no malaria are likely to be at increased risk of future outbreaks. In contrast, areas of stable transmission may be little affected by rising temperature. It is thought that global warming will lead to coastal flooding, changes in precipitation and, indirectly, changes in land use. Just how these changes will effect transmission at a regional level requires an understanding of the ecology of local vectors, since environmental changes which favour malaria transmission in one vector species may reduce it in another. Methods for predicting future changes in malaria in different regions are discussed, highlighting the need for further research in this area. Most importantly, there is a need for researchers to validate the accuracy of the models used for predicting malaria and to confirm the assumptions on which the models are based.

  2. Malaria entomological inoculation rates in western Venezuela.

    PubMed

    Rubio-Palis, Y; Wirtz, R A; Curtis, C F

    1992-12-01

    Over 61,000 anophelines collected between January 1988 and October 1989 in three villages in western Venezuela were assayed by ELISA for Plasmodium vivax circumsporozoite (CS) protein. The six specimens confirmed positive belonged to three species: Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) nuneztovari Gabaldón, 1940, A. albitarsis Arribalzaga, 1878 sensu lato and A. oswaldoi (Peryassu, 1922). The estimated CS protein rate for all species combined was 0.01% (95% confidence limits 0.004-0.02%). This CS protein rate and the mean number of bites received by the collectors indicated a sporozoite inoculation rate of about 10.5 infective bites per person per year. From this value and the number of human malaria cases reported it was estimated that only 0.32% of bites by CS-positive mosquitoes led to a malaria infection. The CS protein rate is so low that this parameter would not be a practical indicator of the efficacy of control campaigns in this area. PMID:1363181

  3. Strengthening malaria prevention and control: integrating West African militaries' malaria control efforts. The inaugural meeting of the West African Malaria Task Force, April 24-26, 2013, Accra, Ghana.

    PubMed

    McCollum, Jeffrey T; Hanna, Refaat; Halbach, Alaina C; Cummings, James F

    2015-01-01

    From April 24 to 26, 2013, the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center and the U.S. Africa Command cosponsored the inaugural meeting of the West Africa Malaria Task Force in Accra, Ghana. The meeting's purpose was to identify common challenges, explore regional and transcontinental collaborations, and to share knowledge about best practices in the fight against malaria in West Africa. Military representatives from Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo participated in the Task Force; various U.S. Government agencies were also represented, including the Department of Defense, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Agency for International Development. African nation participants presented brief overviews of their military's malaria prevention and control measures, surveillance programs, diagnostic capabilities, and treatment regimens emphasizing gaps within existing programs. Representatives from U.S. agencies discussed activities and capabilities relevant for the region, challenges and lessons learned regarding malaria, and highlighted opportunities for enhanced partnerships to counter malaria in West Africa. This article summarizes the major conclusions of the Task Force meeting, identifies relevant focus areas for future Task Force activities, and outlines opportunities for further inclusion of West African militaries to improve regional malaria surveillance and control efforts.

  4. Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool for Chronic Disease Self-Management Program: A New Tool for Program Administrators and Decision Makers

    PubMed Central

    Ahn, SangNam; Smith, Matthew Lee; Altpeter, Mary; Post, Lindsey; Ory, Marcia G.

    2015-01-01

    Chronic disease self-management education (CDSME) programs have been delivered to more than 100,000 older Americans with chronic conditions. As one of the Stanford suite of evidence-based CDSME programs, the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) has been disseminated in diverse populations and settings. The objective of this paper is to introduce a practical, universally applicable tool to assist program administrators and decision makers plan implementation efforts and make the case for continued program delivery. This tool was developed utilizing data from a recent National Study of CDSMP to estimate national savings associated with program participation. Potential annual healthcare savings per CDSMP participant were calculated based on averted emergency room visits and hospitalizations. While national data can be utilized to estimate cost savings, the tool has built-in features allowing users to tailor calculations based on their site-specific data. Building upon the National Study of CDSMP’s documented potential savings of $3.3 billion in healthcare costs by reaching 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions, two heuristic case examples were also explored based on different population projections. The case examples show how a small county and large metropolitan city were not only able to estimate healthcare savings ($38,803 for the small county; $732,290 for the large metropolitan city) for their existing participant populations but also to project significant healthcare savings if they plan to reach higher proportions of middle-aged and older adults. Having a tool to demonstrate the monetary value of CDSMP can contribute to the ongoing dissemination and sustainability of such community-based interventions. Next steps will be creating a user-friendly, internet-based version of Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool: CDSMP, followed by broadening the tool to consider cost savings for other evidence-based programs. PMID:25964946

  5. Healthcare cost savings estimator tool for chronic disease self-management program: a new tool for program administrators and decision makers.

    PubMed

    Ahn, SangNam; Smith, Matthew Lee; Altpeter, Mary; Post, Lindsey; Ory, Marcia G

    2015-01-01

    Chronic disease self-management education (CDSME) programs have been delivered to more than 100,000 older Americans with chronic conditions. As one of the Stanford suite of evidence-based CDSME programs, the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) has been disseminated in diverse populations and settings. The objective of this paper is to introduce a practical, universally applicable tool to assist program administrators and decision makers plan implementation efforts and make the case for continued program delivery. This tool was developed utilizing data from a recent National Study of CDSMP to estimate national savings associated with program participation. Potential annual healthcare savings per CDSMP participant were calculated based on averted emergency room visits and hospitalizations. While national data can be utilized to estimate cost savings, the tool has built-in features allowing users to tailor calculations based on their site-specific data. Building upon the National Study of CDSMP's documented potential savings of $3.3 billion in healthcare costs by reaching 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions, two heuristic case examples were also explored based on different population projections. The case examples show how a small county and large metropolitan city were not only able to estimate healthcare savings ($38,803 for the small county; $732,290 for the large metropolitan city) for their existing participant populations but also to project significant healthcare savings if they plan to reach higher proportions of middle-aged and older adults. Having a tool to demonstrate the monetary value of CDSMP can contribute to the ongoing dissemination and sustainability of such community-based interventions. Next steps will be creating a user-friendly, internet-based version of Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool: CDSMP, followed by broadening the tool to consider cost savings for other evidence-based programs.

  6. Healthcare cost savings estimator tool for chronic disease self-management program: a new tool for program administrators and decision makers.

    PubMed

    Ahn, SangNam; Smith, Matthew Lee; Altpeter, Mary; Post, Lindsey; Ory, Marcia G

    2015-01-01

    Chronic disease self-management education (CDSME) programs have been delivered to more than 100,000 older Americans with chronic conditions. As one of the Stanford suite of evidence-based CDSME programs, the chronic disease self-management program (CDSMP) has been disseminated in diverse populations and settings. The objective of this paper is to introduce a practical, universally applicable tool to assist program administrators and decision makers plan implementation efforts and make the case for continued program delivery. This tool was developed utilizing data from a recent National Study of CDSMP to estimate national savings associated with program participation. Potential annual healthcare savings per CDSMP participant were calculated based on averted emergency room visits and hospitalizations. While national data can be utilized to estimate cost savings, the tool has built-in features allowing users to tailor calculations based on their site-specific data. Building upon the National Study of CDSMP's documented potential savings of $3.3 billion in healthcare costs by reaching 5% of adults with one or more chronic conditions, two heuristic case examples were also explored based on different population projections. The case examples show how a small county and large metropolitan city were not only able to estimate healthcare savings ($38,803 for the small county; $732,290 for the large metropolitan city) for their existing participant populations but also to project significant healthcare savings if they plan to reach higher proportions of middle-aged and older adults. Having a tool to demonstrate the monetary value of CDSMP can contribute to the ongoing dissemination and sustainability of such community-based interventions. Next steps will be creating a user-friendly, internet-based version of Healthcare Cost Savings Estimator Tool: CDSMP, followed by broadening the tool to consider cost savings for other evidence-based programs. PMID:25964946

  7. Towards Improving Point-of-Care Diagnosis of Non-malaria Febrile Illness: A Metabolomics Approach

    PubMed Central

    Decuypere, Saskia; Maltha, Jessica; Deborggraeve, Stijn; Rattray, Nicholas J. W.; Issa, Guiraud; Bérenger, Kaboré; Lompo, Palpouguini; Tahita, Marc C.; Ruspasinghe, Thusitha; McConville, Malcolm; Goodacre, Royston; Tinto, Halidou; Jacobs, Jan; Carapetis, Jonathan R.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Non-malaria febrile illnesses such as bacterial bloodstream infections (BSI) are a leading cause of disease and mortality in the tropics. However, there are no reliable, simple diagnostic tests for identifying BSI or other severe non-malaria febrile illnesses. We hypothesized that different infectious agents responsible for severe febrile illness would impact on the host metabololome in different ways, and investigated the potential of plasma metabolites for diagnosis of non-malaria febrile illness. Methodology We conducted a comprehensive mass-spectrometry based metabolomics analysis of the plasma of 61 children with severe febrile illness from a malaria-endemic rural African setting. Metabolite features characteristic for non-malaria febrile illness, BSI, severe anemia and poor clinical outcome were identified by receiver operating curve analysis. Principal Findings The plasma metabolome profile of malaria and non-malaria patients revealed fundamental differences in host response, including a differential activation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis. A simple corticosteroid signature was a good classifier of severe malaria and non-malaria febrile patients (AUC 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70–0.93). Patients with BSI were characterized by upregulated plasma bile metabolites; a signature of two bile metabolites was estimated to have a sensitivity of 98.1% (95% CI: 80.2–100) and a specificity of 82.9% (95% CI: 54.7–99.9) to detect BSI in children younger than 5 years. This BSI signature demonstrates that host metabolites can have a superior diagnostic sensitivity compared to pathogen-detecting tests to identify infections characterized by low pathogen load such as BSI. Conclusions This study demonstrates the potential use of plasma metabolites to identify causality in children with severe febrile illness in malaria-endemic settings. PMID:26943791

  8. Is there evidence for dual causation between malaria and socioeconomic status? Findings from rural Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Somi, Masha F; Butler, James R G; Vahid, Farshid; Njau, Joseph; Kachur, S Patrick; Abdulla, Salim

    2007-12-01

    Malaria's relationship with socioeconomic status at the macroeconomic level has been established. This is the first study to explore this relationship at the microeconomic (household) level and estimate the direction of association. Malaria prevalence was measured by parasitemia, and household socioeconomic status was measured using an asset based index. Results from an instrumental variable probit model suggest that socioeconomic status is negatively associated with malaria parasitemia. Other variables that are significantly associated with parasitemia include age of the individual, use of a mosquito net on the night before interview, the number of people living in the household, whether the household was residing at their farm home at the time of interview, household wall construction, and the region of residence. Matching estimators indicate that malaria parasitemia is associated with reduced household socioeconomic status. PMID:18165515

  9. Challenges for modelling spatio-temporal variations of malaria risk in Malawi

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowe, R.; Chirombo, J.; Tompkins, A. M.

    2012-04-01

    Malaria is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Malawi with more than 6 million episodes reported each year. Malaria poses a huge economic burden to Malawi in terms of the direct cost of treating malaria patients and also indirect costs resulting from workdays lost in agriculture and industry and absenteeism from school. Malawi implements malaria control activities within the Roll Back Malaria framework, with the objective to provide those most at risk (i.e. children under five years, pregnant woman and individuals with suppressed immune systems) access to personal and community protective measures. However, at present there is no mechanism by which to target the most 'at risk' populations ahead of an impending epidemic. Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the mosquito and the availability of breeding sites, but also socio-economic conditions such as levels of urbanisation, poverty and education, which influence human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases at the district level from July 2004 - June 2011, we use a spatio-temporal modelling framework to model variations in malaria risk in Malawi. Climatic and topographic variations are accounted for using an interpolation method to relate gridded products to administrative districts. District level data is tested in the model to account for confounding factors, including the proportion of the population living in urban areas; residing in traditional housing; with no toilet facilities; who do not attend school, etc, the number of health facilities per population and yearly estimates of insecticide-treated mosquito net distribution. In order to account for

  10. Malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices in Malawi: survey population characteristics.

    PubMed

    Ettling, M; Steketee, R W; Macheso, A; Schultz, L J; Nyasulu, Y; Chitsulo, L

    1994-03-01

    A national knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) survey was conducted in March-April 1992 to examine malaria illness and the people's response to illness and malaria prevention. Fifty-one households in each of 30 randomly selected communities were sampled and information was recorded from 1,531 households and 7,025 individuals. The population is characterized by low income (average household and per capita income were US $490 and $122, respectively) and low education levels (among adult women, 45% had no formal education and only 3.9% completed more than 8 years of schooling). Characteristics of the population were similar to those found in the 1987 national census, suggesting that the survey population was representative of the larger population of Malawi. Children under 5 years of age made up 15.8% of the population and had the highest rates of fever illness; these children experienced an estimated 9.7 cases/year of fever illness consistent with malaria. Although adults reported fever less frequently, women of reproductive age experienced an estimated 6.9 episodes of fever annually. The burden of malaria morbidity in this population is extremely high and occurs in all age groups.

  11. Development of Geohazard Estimation Program through the Analysis of Subsidence Mechanism

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, S. O.; Min, K.

    2006-12-01

    Surface subsidence which occurs with several reasons, such as collapse of gangway, discharge of groundwater, compaction of weak rock mass, and tunnel excavation in shallow depth, gives rise to a serious problem in national infra-structures. Especially the subsidence occurs in urban area can make a huge problem in residential buildings or ground structures, to threaten the personal right to live. However the several decades' research on subsidence in Korea has been performed in a passive manner. Subsidence occurrence could not be predicted precisely, therefore a severe geohazard problem has been produced occasionally. In this study, consequently, the mechanism of subsidence has been examined first to quantify the process of subsidence occurrence. Through the quantitative analysis on the major geotechnical parameters affecting on the subsidence process, the passive approach on subsidence can be overcome. With many kinds of numerical studies, the major geotechnical parameters have been selected and the weighted values have been defined for each parameter. Also the authors developed the numerical program which can estimate the possibility of subsidence occurrence, and proposed the decision method for objective and quantitative guideline. It is anticipated that this research will be helpful to establish the geohazard map on subsidence occurrence area.

  12. Pulmonary pathology in pediatric cerebral malaria.

    PubMed

    Milner, Danny; Factor, Rachel; Whitten, Rich; Carr, Richard A; Kamiza, Steve; Pinkus, Geraldine; Molyneux, Malcolm; Taylor, Terrie

    2013-12-01

    Respiratory signs are common in African children where malaria is highly endemic, and thus, parsing the role of pulmonary pathology in illness is challenging. We examined the lungs of 100 children from an autopsy series in Blantyre, Malawi, many of whom death was attributed to Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Our aim was to describe the pathologic manifestations of fatal malaria; to understand the role of parasites, pigment, and macrophages; and to catalog comorbidities. From available patients, which included 55 patients with cerebral malaria and 45 controls, we obtained 4 cores of lung tissue for immunohistochemistry and morphological evaluation. We found that, in patients with cerebral malaria, large numbers of malaria parasites were present in pulmonary alveolar capillaries, together with extensive deposits of malaria pigment (hemozoin). The number of pulmonary macrophages in this vascular bed did not differ between patients with cerebral malaria, noncerebral malaria, and nonmalarial diagnoses. Comorbidities found in some cerebral malaria patients included pneumonia, pulmonary edema, hemorrhage, and systemic activation of coagulation. We conclude that the respiratory distress seen in patients with cerebral malaria does not appear to be anatomic in origin but that increasing malaria pigment is strongly associated with cerebral malaria at autopsy.

  13. Malaria at Christmas: risks of prophylaxis versus risks of malaria.

    PubMed

    Reid, A J; Whitty, C J; Ayles, H M; Jennings, R M; Bovill, B A; Felton, J M; Behrens, R H; Bryceson, A D; Mabey, D C

    1998-11-28

    A large increase in the number of falciparum malaria cases imported into the UK was reported to the malaria reference laboratory in the first quarter of 1998. Contributory factors were unusually heavy rains in east Africa and a reduction in the use of the most effective antimalarial drug, mefloquine. There was also an increase in the number of cases of severe malaria in the UK. During December 1997 and January 1998, the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, London, treated 5 patients for severe malaria and gave advice on 20 more patients with malaria who had been admitted to intensive care units throughout England. 4 of the severe cases treated at the hospital are reported. In 3 of those 4 cases, incorrect, misleading, or inadequate advice was given by health care professionals. Media coverage of the adverse effects of antimalarial drugs has contributed to confusion about prophylactic regimens among both health care professionals and the public. The incidence of falciparum malaria among travellers who do not take prophylactic drugs is about 0.6% in east Africa and 3.5% in west Africa over a 2-week travel period. Travellers need to take measures to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes and should be taught to promptly seek medical help if they develop a fever while abroad or after they return. Moreover, using any one of the recommended prophylactic regimens is better than not using a potent regimen or no prophylaxis at all. Mefloquine is 90% protective against malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. While the efficacy of proguanil and chloroquine in 1987 was about 70% in west Africa and 50% in east Africa, those levels are now probably lower. The side effects of antimalarial drugs are discussed.

  14. An exploratory study of community factors relevant for participatory malaria control on Rusinga Island, western Kenya

    PubMed Central

    Opiyo, Pamela; Mukabana, W Richard; Kiche, Ibrahim; Mathenge, Evan; Killeen, Gerry F; Fillinger, Ulrike

    2007-01-01

    Background Capacity strengthening of rural communities, and the various actors that support them, is needed to enable them to lead their own malaria control programmes. Here the existing capacity of a rural community in western Kenya was evaluated in preparation for a larger intervention. Methods Focus group discussions and semi-structured individual interviews were carried out in 1,451 households to determine (1) demographics of respondent and household; (2) socio-economic status of the household; (3) knowledge and beliefs about malaria (symptoms, prevention methods, mosquito life cycle); (4) typical practices used for malaria prevention; (5) the treatment-seeking behaviour and household expenditure for malaria treatment; and (6) the willingness to prepare and implement community-based vector control. Results Malaria was considered a major threat to life but relevant knowledge was a chimera of scientific knowledge and traditional beliefs, which combined with socio-economic circumstances, leads to ineffective malaria prevention. The actual malaria prevention behaviour practiced by community members differed significantly from methods known to the respondents. Beside bednet use, the major interventions implemented were bush clearing and various hygienic measures, even though these are ineffective for malaria prevention. Encouragingly, most respondents believed malaria could be controlled and were willing to contribute to a community-based malaria control program but felt they needed outside assistance. Conclusion Culturally sensitive but evidence-based education interventions, utilizing participatory tools, are urgently required which consider traditional beliefs and enable understanding of causal connections between mosquito ecology, parasite transmission and the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of disease. Community-based organizations and schools need to be equipped with knowledge through partnerships with national and international research and tertiary

  15. [Current malaria situation in Turkmenistan].

    PubMed

    Amangel'diev, K A

    2001-01-01

    Malaria is one of the main health problems facing most developing countries having a hot climate. It is a problem in Turkmenistan. The country is situated in Central Asia, north of the Kopetdag mountains, between the Caspian Sea to the west and the Amu-Darya river to the east. Turkmenistan stretches for a distance of 1,100 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. It borders Kazakhstan in the north, Uzbekistan in the east and north-east, Iran in the south, and Afghanistan in the south-east. Seven malaria vector species are found in Turkmenistan, the main ones being Anopheles superpictus, An. pulcherrimus, and An. martinius. The potentially endemic area consists of the floodplains of the Tejen and Murgab rivers, with a long chain of reservoirs built along them. In 1980 most cases of imported malaria were recorded in military personnel who had returned from service in Afghanistan. In the past years, only tertian (Plasmodium vivax) malaria has been recorded and there have been no death from malaria over that period. In the Serkhetabad (Gushgi) district there are currently 5 active foci of malaria infection, with a population of 22,000 people. In 1999, forty nine cases of P. vivax malaria were recorded in Turkmenistan. Of them, 36 cases, including 4 children under 14 years were diagnosed for the first time while 13 were relapses. There were 88 fewer cases than those in the previous year (by a factor of 2.8). There were 17 more cases of imported malaria than those in 1998 (by a factor of 1.7), most of which occurred in the foci of malaria infection (Serkhetabad, Tagtabazar, and Kerki districts), in the city of Ashkhabat and in Lebap, Dashkhovuz and Akhal Regions. The emergence of indigenous malaria in the border areas was due to the importation of the disease at intervals by infected mosquitoes flying in from neighbouring countries (e.g. Afghanistan), the lack of drugs to treat the first cases and the lack of alternative insecticides. Most patients suffer

  16. [Current malaria situation in Turkmenistan].

    PubMed

    Amangel'diev, K A

    2001-01-01

    Malaria is one of the main health problems facing most developing countries having a hot climate. It is a problem in Turkmenistan. The country is situated in Central Asia, north of the Kopetdag mountains, between the Caspian Sea to the west and the Amu-Darya river to the east. Turkmenistan stretches for a distance of 1,100 km from west to east and 650 km from north to south. It borders Kazakhstan in the north, Uzbekistan in the east and north-east, Iran in the south, and Afghanistan in the south-east. Seven malaria vector species are found in Turkmenistan, the main ones being Anopheles superpictus, An. pulcherrimus, and An. martinius. The potentially endemic area consists of the floodplains of the Tejen and Murgab rivers, with a long chain of reservoirs built along them. In 1980 most cases of imported malaria were recorded in military personnel who had returned from service in Afghanistan. In the past years, only tertian (Plasmodium vivax) malaria has been recorded and there have been no death from malaria over that period. In the Serkhetabad (Gushgi) district there are currently 5 active foci of malaria infection, with a population of 22,000 people. In 1999, forty nine cases of P. vivax malaria were recorded in Turkmenistan. Of them, 36 cases, including 4 children under 14 years were diagnosed for the first time while 13 were relapses. There were 88 fewer cases than those in the previous year (by a factor of 2.8). There were 17 more cases of imported malaria than those in 1998 (by a factor of 1.7), most of which occurred in the foci of malaria infection (Serkhetabad, Tagtabazar, and Kerki districts), in the city of Ashkhabat and in Lebap, Dashkhovuz and Akhal Regions. The emergence of indigenous malaria in the border areas was due to the importation of the disease at intervals by infected mosquitoes flying in from neighbouring countries (e.g. Afghanistan), the lack of drugs to treat the first cases and the lack of alternative insecticides. Most patients suffer

  17. Documentation of the history of malaria in Italy at the Rockefeller Archive Center.

    PubMed

    Stapleton, D H; Rose, K W

    1998-01-01

    The Rockefeller Archive Center holds approximately 50,000 pages of archival documents pertaining to the history of anti-malaria programs in Italy in the 20th century. Reports on the status of public health in Italy occur in the archives dating from 1915, but there was no sustained Rockefeller commitment to anti-malaria work in Italy until 1924. The article presents a brief description of the sources for the study of the history of malaria in Italy that are held at the Rockefeller Archive Center.

  18. Historical perspectives on malaria: the Rockefeller antimalaria strategy in the 20th century.

    PubMed

    Stapleton, Darwin H

    2009-10-01

    Malaria, a serious disease for all of human history, was not effectively handled until methods for control of its insect vector, the Anopheles mosquito, were developed at the beginning of the 20th century. The Rockefeller Foundation's antimalaria program spread vector-control strategies throughout the world, and its adoption of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane during World War II created an especially powerful and effective malaria control strategy. However, insect resistance to dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane and restrictions on dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane use due to its long-term environmental effects are factors in the persistence of malaria as a serious health problem. Mt Sinai J Med 76:468-473, 2009. (c) 2009 Mount Sinai School of Medicine.

  19. Multigene Phylogenetics Reveals Temporal Diversification of Major African Malaria Vectors

    PubMed Central

    Kamali, Maryam; Marek, Paul E.; Peery, Ashley; Antonio-Nkondjio, Christophe; Ndo, Cyrille; Tu, Zhijian; Simard, Frederic; Sharakhov, Igor V.

    2014-01-01

    The major vectors of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa belong to subgenus Cellia. Yet, phylogenetic relationships and temporal diversification among African mosquito species have not been unambiguously determined. Knowledge about vector evolutionary history is crucial for correct interpretation of genetic changes identified through comparative genomics analyses. In this study, we estimated a molecular phylogeny using 49 gene sequences for the African malaria vectors An. gambiae, An. funestus, An. nili, the Asian malaria mosquito An. stephensi, and the outgroup species Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti. To infer the phylogeny, we identified orthologous sequences uniformly distributed approximately every 5 Mb in the five chromosomal arms. The sequences were aligned and the phylogenetic trees were inferred using maximum likelihood and neighbor-joining methods. Bayesian molecular dating using a relaxed log normal model was used to infer divergence times. Trees from individual genes agreed with each other, placing An. nili as a basal clade that diversified from the studied malaria mosquito species 47.6 million years ago (mya). Other African malaria vectors originated more recently, and independently acquired traits related to vectorial capacity. The lineage leading to An. gambiae diverged 30.4 mya, while the African vector An. funestus and the Asian vector An. stephensi were the most closely related sister taxa that split 20.8 mya. These results were supported by consistently high bootstrap values in concatenated phylogenetic trees generated individually for each chromosomal arm. Genome-wide multigene phylogenetic analysis is a useful approach for discerning historic relationships among malaria vectors, providing a framework for the correct interpretation of genomic changes across species, and comprehending the evolutionary origins of this ubiquitous and deadly insect-borne disease. PMID:24705448

  20. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference.

    PubMed

    Romer, Jeremy D; Gitelman, Alix I; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  1. Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference

    PubMed Central

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  2. Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  3. Ecoregional classification of malaria vectors in the neotropics.

    PubMed

    Rubio-Palis, Y; Zimmerman, R H

    1997-09-01

    An ecoregional approach to the classification of malaria in the neotropics region can give health personnel a new prespective on how to manage malaria control programs. We propose an ecoregional classification based on vector distribution and important environmental determinants, including vegetation type, rainfall patterns, mean temperatures, elevation, and geomorphology. The following 5 ecoregions are described: (1) coastal, (2) piedmont, (3) savanna, (4) interior lowland forest, and (5) high valley. Subregional differences are classified when appropriate. Because human activities and extensive changes in land use usually leads to increased human-vector contact and alter local vector distribution and abundance, it is important that these changes be considered in the classification of vector ecoregions. Using this approach, risk areas can be classified as to the presence and potential abundance of particular vectors. Then, in combination with other components of malaria transmission (e.g., migration, cultural practices, living conditions), areas for surveillance and intervention can be prioritized. It is hoped that this forum will be a catalyst for discussion, future research, and the development of ecologically orientated malaria control programs. PMID:9379453

  4. Multilateral perspective on malaria begins to take shape.

    PubMed

    1998-02-01

    13 funding bodies collaborated in January 1997 to create the Africa-targeted Multilateral Initiative on Malaria (MIM). African scientists have been deeply involved in the MIM from its inception in Dakar, Senegal. The immediate goal of the initiative is to facilitate collaboration between governments, control programs, scientists and supporting agencies. Both the public and private sectors are actively involved. It is possible that in the long term the MIM will function as a global forum for malaria-related discussions, creating political awareness and a political context for concerted action by parties which usually work separately. With follow-up meetings held in the Hague in July and in London in November, the MIM is moving ahead quickly with a varied and full agenda of research objectives. In the short term, improvements will be sought in the way existing tools are used, while results from studies of epidemiology, pathogenesis, the malaria genome project, and the genetic engineering of mosquitoes will be applied over the medium and long terms. The UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Program for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) will help assess the scientific needs and strengthen the research capacities of malaria endemic countries in Africa, providing approximately US$3 million annually to support 10-15 projects for periods of 1-3 years. Training will be a component of all research.

  5. Malaria Evolution in South Asia: Knowledge for Control and Elimination

    PubMed Central

    Narayanasamy, Krishnamoorthy; Chery, Laura; Basu, Analabha; Duraisingh, Manoj T.; Escalante, Ananias; Fowble, Joseph; Guler, Jennifer L.; Herricks, Thurston; Kumar, Ashwani; Majumder, Partha; Maki, Jennifer; Mascarenhas, Anjali; Rodrigues, Janneth; Roy, Bikram; Sen, Somdutta; Shastri, Jayanthi; Smith, Joseph; Valecha, Neena; White, John; Rathod, Pradipsinh K.

    2013-01-01

    The study of malaria parasites on the Indian subcontinent should help us understand unexpected disease outbreaks and unpredictable disease presentations from Plasmodium falciparum and from Plasmodium vivax infections. The Malaria Evolution in South Asia (MESA) research program is one of ten International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research (ICEMR) sponsored by the US National Institute of Health. In this second of two reviews, we describe why population structures of Plasmodia in India will be characterized and how we will determine their consequences on disease presentation, outcome and patterns. Specific projects will determine if genetic diversity, possibly driven by parasites with higher genetic plasticity, plays a role in changing epidemiology, pathogenesis, vector competence of parasite populations, and whether innate human genetic traits protect Indians from malaria today. Deep local clinical knowledge of malaria in India will be supplemented by basic scientists who bring new research tools. Such tools will include whole genome sequencing and analysis methods; in vitro assays to measure genome plasticity, RBC cytoadhesion, invasion, and deformability; mosquito infectivity assays to evaluate changing parasite-vector compatibilities; and host genetics to understand protective traits in Indian populations. The MESA-ICEMR study sites span diagonally across India, including a mixture of very urban and rural hospitals, each with very different disease patterns and patient populations. Research partnerships include government-associated research institutes, private medical schools, city and state government hospitals, and hospitals with industry ties. Between 2012-2017, in addition to developing clinical research and basic science infrastructure at new clinical sites, our training workshops will engage new scientists and clinicians throughout South Asia in the malaria research field. PMID:22266213

  6. Meteorological, environmental remote sensing and neural network analysis of the epidemiology of malaria transmission in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Kiang, Richard; Adimi, Farida; Soika, Valerii; Nigro, Joseph; Singhasivanon, Pratap; Sirichaisinthop, Jeeraphat; Leemingsawat, Somjai; Apiwathnasorn, Chamnarn; Looareesuwan, Sornchai

    2006-11-01

    In many malarious regions malaria transmission roughly coincides with rainy seasons, which provide for more abundant larval habitats. In addition to precipitation, other meteorological and environmental factors may also influence malaria transmission. These factors can be remotely sensed using earth observing environmental satellites and estimated with seasonal climate forecasts. The use of remote sensing usage as an early warning tool for malaria epidemics have been broadly studied in recent years, especially for Africa, where the majority of the world's malaria occurs. Although the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), which includes Thailand and the surrounding countries, is an epicenter of multidrug resistant falciparum malaria, the meteorological and environmental factors affecting malaria transmissions in the GMS have not been examined in detail. In this study, the parasitological data used consisted of the monthly malaria epidemiology data at the provincial level compiled by the Thai Ministry of Public Health. Precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and vegetation index obtained from both climate time series and satellite measurements were used as independent variables to model malaria. We used neural network methods, an artificial-intelligence technique, to model the dependency of malaria transmission on these variables. The average training accuracy of the neural network analysis for three provinces (Kanchanaburi, Mae Hong Son, and Tak) which are among the provinces most endemic for malaria, is 72.8% and the average testing accuracy is 62.9% based on the 1994-1999 data. A more complex neural network architecture resulted in higher training accuracy but also lower testing accuracy. Taking into account of the uncertainty regarding reported malaria cases, we divided the malaria cases into bands (classes) to compute training accuracy. Using the same neural network architecture on the 19 most endemic provinces for years 1994 to 2000, the mean training accuracy

  7. A computer program for estimating instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River, Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCarthy, Peter M.

    2006-01-01

    The Yellowstone River is very important in a variety of ways to the residents of southeastern Montana; however, it is especially vulnerable to spilled contaminants. In 2004, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Montana Department of Environmental Quality, initiated a study to develop a computer program to rapidly estimate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant in the Yellowstone River using regression equations developed in 1999 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The purpose of this report is to describe these equations and their limitations, describe the development of a computer program to apply the equations to the Yellowstone River, and provide detailed instructions on how to use the program. This program is available online at [http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2006-5057/includes/ytot.xls]. The regression equations provide estimates of instream travel times and concentrations in rivers where little or no contaminant-transport data are available. Equations were developed and presented for the most probable flow velocity and the maximum probable flow velocity. These velocity estimates can then be used to calculate instream travel times and concentrations of a potential contaminant. The computer program was developed so estimation equations for instream travel times and concentrations can be solved quickly for sites along the Yellowstone River between Corwin Springs and Sidney, Montana. The basic types of data needed to run the program are spill data, streamflow data, and data for locations of interest along the Yellowstone River. Data output from the program includes spill location, river mileage at specified locations, instantaneous discharge, mean-annual discharge, drainage area, and channel slope. Travel times and concentrations are provided for estimates of the most probable velocity of the peak concentration and the maximum probable velocity of the peak concentration. Verification of estimates of instream travel times and

  8. Choosing a Drug to Prevent Malaria

    MedlinePlus

    ... a CDC Malaria Branch clinician. malaria@cdc.gov File Formats Help: How do I view different file formats (PDF, DOC, PPT, MPEG) on this site? Adobe PDF file Microsoft PowerPoint file Microsoft Word file Microsoft Excel ...

  9. Tutorials for Africa - Malaria: MedlinePlus

    MedlinePlus

    Tutorials for Africa: Malaria In Uganda, the burden of malaria outranks that of all other diseases. This ... of treatment and techniques for prevention. Select the tutorial to play: Japadhola Japadhola (Self Playing Tutorial) Luganda ...

  10. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Malaria in Urban Ahmedabad (Gujarat), India: Identification of Hot Spots and Risk Factors for Targeted Intervention.

    PubMed

    Parizo, Justin; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Dhiman, Ramesh C; Greenhouse, Bryan

    2016-09-01

    The world population, especially in developing countries, has experienced a rapid progression of urbanization over the last half century. Urbanization has been accompanied by a rise in cases of urban infectious diseases, such as malaria. The complexity and heterogeneity of the urban environment has made study of specific urban centers vital for urban malaria control programs, whereas more generalizable risk factor identification also remains essential. Ahmedabad city, India, is a large urban center located in the state of Gujarat, which has experienced a significant Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum disease burden. Therefore, a targeted analysis of malaria in Ahmedabad city was undertaken to identify spatiotemporal patterns of malaria, risk factors, and methods of predicting future malaria cases. Malaria incidence in Ahmedabad city was found to be spatially heterogeneous, but temporally stable, with high spatial correlation between species. Because of this stability, a prediction method utilizing historic cases from prior years and seasons was used successfully to predict which areas of Ahmedabad city would experience the highest malaria burden and could be used to prospectively target interventions. Finally, spatial analysis showed that normalized difference vegetation index, proximity to water sources, and location within Ahmedabad city relative to the dense urban core were the best predictors of malaria incidence. Because of the heterogeneity of urban environments and urban malaria itself, the study of specific large urban centers is vital to assist in allocating resources and informing future urban planning.

  11. Spatiotemporal Analysis of Malaria in Urban Ahmedabad (Gujarat), India: Identification of Hot Spots and Risk Factors for Targeted Intervention.

    PubMed

    Parizo, Justin; Sturrock, Hugh J W; Dhiman, Ramesh C; Greenhouse, Bryan

    2016-09-01

    The world population, especially in developing countries, has experienced a rapid progression of urbanization over the last half century. Urbanization has been accompanied by a rise in cases of urban infectious diseases, such as malaria. The complexity and heterogeneity of the urban environment has made study of specific urban centers vital for urban malaria control programs, whereas more generalizable risk factor identification also remains essential. Ahmedabad city, India, is a large urban center located in the state of Gujarat, which has experienced a significant Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum disease burden. Therefore, a targeted analysis of malaria in Ahmedabad city was undertaken to identify spatiotemporal patterns of malaria, risk factors, and methods of predicting future malaria cases. Malaria incidence in Ahmedabad city was found to be spatially heterogeneous, but temporally stable, with high spatial correlation between species. Because of this stability, a prediction method utilizing historic cases from prior years and seasons was used successfully to predict which areas of Ahmedabad city would experience the highest malaria burden and could be used to prospectively target interventions. Finally, spatial analysis showed that normalized difference vegetation index, proximity to water sources, and location within Ahmedabad city relative to the dense urban core were the best predictors of malaria incidence. Because of the heterogeneity of urban environments and urban malaria itself, the study of specific large urban centers is vital to assist in allocating resources and informing future urban planning. PMID:27382081

  12. Southeast Geyers Cooperative Tracer Evaluation and Testing Program for the Purpose of Estimating The Efficiency of Injection

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Smith

    2001-02-12

    The Southeast Geysers Cooperative Tracer Evaluation Program has been a joint project located in the SE part of the Geysers geothermal field, in Lake and Sonoma Counties, California. A new generation of environmentally benign vapor-phase tracers has been used to estimate the varying degrees to which injectate is being recovered following the significant increase of injected volumes within the Southeast Geysers.

  13. Estimates of Intraclass Correlation Coefficients from Longitudinal Group-Randomized Trials of Adolescent HIV/STI/Pregnancy Prevention Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glassman, Jill R.; Potter, Susan C.; Baumler, Elizabeth R.; Coyle, Karin K.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Group-randomized trials (GRTs) are one of the most rigorous methods for evaluating the effectiveness of group-based health risk prevention programs. Efficiently designing GRTs with a sample size that is sufficient for meeting the trial's power and precision goals while not wasting resources exceeding them requires estimates of the…

  14. ESTIMATES OF CLOUD WATER DEPOSITION AT MOUNTAIN DEPOSITION AT MOUNTAIN ACID DEPOSITION PROGRAM SITES IN THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Cloud water deposition was estimated at three high elevation sites in the Appalachian Mountains of the eastern United States (Whiteface Mountain, NY, Whitetop Mountain, VA, and Clingrnan's Dome, TN) from 1994 through 1999 as part of the Mountain Acid Deposition Program (MADPro). ...

  15. The Development of a Model for Estimating the Costs Associated with the Delivery of a Metals Cluster Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hunt, Charles R.

    A study developed a model to assist school administrators to estimate costs associated with the delivery of a metals cluster program at Norfolk State College, Virginia. It sought to construct the model so that costs could be explained as a function of enrollment levels. Data were collected through a literature review, computer searches of the…

  16. James-Stein Estimation. Program Statistics Research, Technical Report No. 89-86.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brandwein, Ann Cohen; Strawderman, William E.

    This paper presents an expository development of James-Stein estimation with substantial emphasis on exact results for nonnormal location models. The themes of the paper are: (1) the improvement possible over the best invariant estimator via shrinkage estimation is not surprising but expected from a variety of perspectives; (2) the amount of…

  17. Malaria research and eradication in the USSR

    PubMed Central

    Bruce-Chwatt, Leonard J.

    1959-01-01

    Relatively little is known outside the USSR about the past history of malaria in that country, the contribution of its scientists to malaria research, the recent progress of Soviet malariology, or the achievements of the Soviet Union in the eradication of malaria. These achievements are of particular interest because the general strategy of malaria eradication in the USSR has many technical, administrative, and economic and social features not seen elsewhere. PMID:13805136

  18. Bilateral optic neuritis due to malaria.

    PubMed

    Chacko, Joseph G; Onteddu, Sanjeeva; Rosenbaum, Eric R

    2013-09-01

    Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease caused by protists of the genus Plasmodium. Malaria is widespread in tropical regions around the equator, including much of sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and the Americas, and uncommonly seen in the developed world. Although a variety of ocular manifestations have been linked to malaria, optic neuritis is rare. We report a patient who developed bilateral optic neuritis after he was treated successfully for acute falciparum malaria.

  19. Technology and malaria control, 1930-1960: the career of Rockefeller Foundation engineer Frederick W. Knipe.

    PubMed

    Stapleton, D H

    2000-06-01

    Frederick W. Knipe was a malaria-control engineer with the Rockefeller Foundation, serving in Bulgaria, Albania, India, Mexico, Italy, and the United States. There were two phases to his career: from 1930 to 1943 he focused on drainage works that reduced or eliminated mosquito habitat, and from 1944 to 1960 he supervised DDT spraying programs. His appointments to the WHO Expert Committee on Insecticides, 1948-55, demonstrate that his contributions to malaria-control were highly regarded by his peers.

  20. [The malaria situation in the WHO eastern Mediterranean region].

    PubMed

    Beljaev, A E

    2000-01-01

    About 45% of the population of the Eastern Mediterranean Region live under the risk of both falciparum and vivax malaria, and additional 15% under the risk of P. vivax alone. The estimated annual number of malaria cases is about 14 million, out of which 95% occur in four countries: Afghanistan, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. In Afghanistan malaria is endemic throughout the country at altitude below 1500 m. About 80-90% of malaria cases belong to P. vivax, the rest to P. falciparum (the latter is prevalent mostly in the South and in Badakhshan). In Islamic Republic of Iran 16% of the population live in initially non-malarious areas, 66% in areas freed from malaria, 12% in areas with sporadic transmission, mostly of P. vivax, and only 6% in areas of continuous transmission with a high proportion of P. falciparum. As much as 77% of the recorded cases belong to the latter territories. Iraq. After the Gulf war, the situation deteriorated in the three north-eastern governorates, and malaria spread outside this area and rooted in the south (Basra). Syria. Transmission of P. vivax still occurs, mostly along the western part of the border with Turkey and in the north-eastern corner of the country. At present, there are three areas that causes concern along borders between the European and Eastern Mediterranean Regions: Afghanistan is a source of importation of malaria to all its neighbours; areas on the borders between Iran, Azerbaijan and, to some extent, Armenia; 4 northern governorates of Iraq and parts of southeastern Turkey, with repercussions in Syria and, to a Lesser extent in Iran, along its western border. To some extent, Cyprus is also threatened, since importation of malaria to the northern part of the island from Turkey has been documented. In practical terms, there is a need for co-ordination of antivectorial activities and standardization of control methods between the countries with strong programmes and relatively intense transmission in border areas, i

  1. An Integrated Atmospheric and Hydrological Based Malaria Epidemic Alert System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asefi Najafabady, S.; Li, J.; Nair, U. S.; Welch, R. M.; Srivastava, A.; Nagpal, B. N.; Saxena, R.; Benedict, M. E.

    2005-05-01

    Malaria is a growing global threat, with increasing morbidity and mortality. In India there have been >40 epidemics in the last five years, in part due to abnormal meteorological conditions as well as the buildup of an immunologically naïve population. In most parts of India, periodic epidemics of malaria occur every five to seven years. Malaria epidemics are serious national/regional health emergencies, occurring with little or no warning where the public health system is unprepared to respond to the emerging problem. However, epidemic conditions develop over several weeks, theoretically allowing time for preventative action. The study area for the proposed research is located in Mewat, south of Delhi. It is estimated that 90% of the malaria burden is influenced by environmental factors, so that successful malaria intervention approaches must be adapted to local environmental conditions. Of particular importance are air and water temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture, and precipitation. Extreme climatic conditions prevail in Mewat, with uneven topography, 450mm average annual rainfall in 25 to 35 days, high temperature variability in different seasons, low relative humidity. Automated surface measurements are obtained for temperature, relative humidity, water temperature, precipitation and soil moisture. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) is used to predict these variables over the spatial domain which are used in dynamic hydrological models to yield the parameters important to malaria transmission, including surface wetness, mean water table depth, percent surface saturation and total surface runoff. The locations of saturated surface regions associated with mosquito breeding sites near populated regions, along with water temperature, and then are used to determine larvae development and mosquito abundance. ASTER, LANDSAT and MODIS imagery are used to retrieve soil moisture, vegetation indices and land cover types. Pan-sharpened 1m spatial

  2. Standardized data collection for multi-center clinical studies of severe malaria in African children: establishing the SMAC network

    PubMed Central

    Taylor, Terrie; Olola, Christopher; Valim, Clarissa; Agbenyega, Tsiri; Kremsner, Peter; Krishna, Sanjeev; Kwiatkowski, Dominic; Newton, Charles; Missinou, Michel; Pinder, Margaret; Wypij, David

    2006-01-01

    The Severe Malaria in African Children (SMAC) network was established to conduct mortality-based trials. Although falciparum malaria kills more than one million children each year, single centers cannot enroll enough patients to detect reductions of 20–30% in mortality rates. Our aim was to quantify and describe severe malaria across a variety of epidemiological settings so that we could design intervention studies with more precise sample size estimates. We used a standardized surveillance mechanism to capture clinical, laboratory, and outcome data on all parasitemic children admitted to hospital. Between December 2000 and December 2003, 20,333 patients were enrolled in five sites. The frequency of severe malaria syndromes (cerebral malaria, severe malarial anemia and acidosis) differed between sites, as did the syndrome-specific mortality rates. Intervention studies targeted at reducing mortality in one or a combination of severe malaria syndromes would require 3–4 years to complete within the existing network. These data provide more accurate estimates of the disease burden of children hospitalized for malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. Networks are required to recruit enough patients for mortality-based studies and to encompass the epidemiological diversity of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa. SMAC represents the first effort to develop this capacity. PMID:16551469

  3. UK malaria treatment guidelines 2016.

    PubMed

    Lalloo, David G; Shingadia, Delane; Bell, David J; Beeching, Nicholas J; Whitty, Christopher J M; Chiodini, Peter L

    2016-06-01

    1.Malaria is the tropical disease most commonly imported into the UK, with 1300-1800 cases reported each year, and 2-11 deaths. 2. Approximately three quarters of reported malaria cases in the UK are caused by Plasmodium falciparum, which is capable of invading a high proportion of red blood cells and rapidly leading to severe or life-threatening multi-organ disease. 3. Most non-falciparum malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium vivax; a few cases are caused by the other species of plasmodium: Plasmodium ovale, Plasmodium malariae or Plasmodium knowlesi. 4. Mixed infections with more than one species of parasite can occur; they commonly involve P. falciparum with the attendant risks of severe malaria. 5. There are no typical clinical features of malaria; even fever is not invariably present. Malaria in children (and sometimes in adults) may present with misleading symptoms such as gastrointestinal features, sore throat or lower respiratory complaints. 6. A diagnosis of malaria must always be sought in a feverish or sick child or adult who has visited malaria-endemic areas. Specific country information on malaria can be found at http://travelhealthpro.org.uk/. P. falciparum infection rarely presents more than six months after exposure but presentation of other species can occur more than a year after exposure. 7. Management of malaria depends on awareness of the diagnosis and on performing the correct diagnostic tests: the diagnosis cannot be excluded until more than one blood specimen has been examined. Other travel related infections, especially viral haemorrhagic fevers, should also be considered. 8. The optimum diagnostic procedure is examination of thick and thin blood films by an expert to detect and speciate the malarial parasites. P. falciparum and P. vivax (depending upon the product) malaria can be diagnosed almost as accurately using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) which detect plasmodial antigens. RDTs for other Plasmodium species are not as reliable. 9

  4. The economic burden of malaria on the household in south-central Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Morel, Chantal M; Thang, Ngo Duc; Xa, Nguyen Xuan; Hung, Le Xuan; Thuan, Le Khan; Van Ky, Pham; Erhart, Annette; Mills, Anne J; D'Alessandro, Umberto

    2008-01-01

    Background Each year, several thousand cases of malaria occur in south-central Vietnam. Evidence from elsewhere suggests that malaria can have an economic impact on the household as the illness prevents households from completing their normal, physically demanding, productive duties such as tending crops and animals. The economic impact of malaria on households was explored within the Raglay ethnic minority living in the montainous and forested area of south-central Vietnam (Ninh Thuan Province). Methods Two-hundred fifty-one malaria patients were identified and interviewed in an exit survey at Community Health Centres. The same patient sample was then re-interviewed in a household survey two to four weeks later. Survey data were complemented by approximately 40 informal discussions with health workers, vendors, patients, and community leaders. Results Each episode of malaria was estimated to cost the patient's household an average of 11.79 USD (2005 prices), direct costs for travel and treatment representing 6% of the total while the remainder was loss in annual income. Conclusion Whilst government provision of malaria treatment keeps the direct costs relatively low, the overall loss in income due to illness can still be significant given the poverty amongst this population, especially when multiple cases of malaria occur annually within the same household. PMID:18752675

  5. Gene-therapy for malaria prevention.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Mauricio M; Soares, Irene S

    2014-11-01

    The limited number of tools for malaria prevention and the inability to eradicate the disease have required large investments in vaccine development, as vaccines have been the only foreseeable type of immunoprophylaxis against malaria. An alternative strategy named vectored immunoprophylaxis (VIP) now would allow genetically transduced host cells to assemble and secrete antibodies that neutralize the infectivity of the malaria parasite and prevent disease.

  6. Averting a malaria disaster: will insecticide resistance derail malaria control?

    PubMed

    Hemingway, Janet; Ranson, Hilary; Magill, Alan; Kolaczinski, Jan; Fornadel, Christen; Gimnig, John; Coetzee, Maureen; Simard, Frederic; Roch, Dabiré K; Hinzoumbe, Clément Kerah; Pickett, John; Schellenberg, David; Gething, Peter; Hoppé, Mark; Hamon, Nicholas

    2016-04-23

    World Malaria Day 2015 highlighted the progress made in the development of new methods of prevention (vaccines and insecticides) and treatment (single dose drugs) of the disease. However, increasing drug and insecticide resistance threatens the successes made with existing methods. Insecticide resistance has decreased the efficacy of the most commonly used insecticide class of pyrethroids. This decreased efficacy has increased mosquito survival, which is a prelude to rising incidence of malaria and fatalities. Despite intensive research efforts, new insecticides will not reach the market for at least 5 years. Elimination of malaria is not possible without effective mosquito control. Therefore, to combat the threat of resistance, key stakeholders need to rapidly embrace a multifaceted approach including a reduction in the cost of bringing new resistance management methods to market and the streamlining of associated development, policy, and implementation pathways to counter this looming public health catastrophe. PMID:26880124

  7. Averting a malaria disaster: will insecticide resistance derail malaria control?

    PubMed

    Hemingway, Janet; Ranson, Hilary; Magill, Alan; Kolaczinski, Jan; Fornadel, Christen; Gimnig, John; Coetzee, Maureen; Simard, Frederic; Roch, Dabiré K; Hinzoumbe, Clément Kerah; Pickett, John; Schellenberg, David; Gething, Peter; Hoppé, Mark; Hamon, Nicholas

    2016-04-23

    World Malaria Day 2015 highlighted the progress made in the development of new methods of prevention (vaccines and insecticides) and treatment (single dose drugs) of the disease. However, increasing drug and insecticide resistance threatens the successes made with existing methods. Insecticide resistance has decreased the efficacy of the most commonly used insecticide class of pyrethroids. This decreased efficacy has increased mosquito survival, which is a prelude to rising incidence of malaria and fatalities. Despite intensive research efforts, new insecticides will not reach the market for at least 5 years. Elimination of malaria is not possible without effective mosquito control. Therefore, to combat the threat of resistance, key stakeholders need to rapidly embrace a multifaceted approach including a reduction in the cost of bringing new resistance management methods to market and the streamlining of associated development, policy, and implementation pathways to counter this looming public health catastrophe.

  8. Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    , precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

  9. Computer-Aided Drug Discovery Approaches against the Tropical Infectious Diseases Malaria, Tuberculosis, Trypanosomiasis, and Leishmaniasis.

    PubMed

    Njogu, Peter M; Guantai, Eric M; Pavadai, Elumalai; Chibale, Kelly

    2016-01-01

    Despite the tremendous improvement in overall global health heralded by the adoption of the Millennium Declaration in the year 2000, tropical infections remain a major health problem in the developing world. Recent estimates indicate that the major tropical infectious diseases, namely, malaria, tuberculosis, trypanosomiasis, and leishmaniasis, account for more than 2.2 million deaths and a loss of approximately 85 million disability-adjusted life years annually. The crucial role of chemotherapy in curtailing the deleterious health and economic impacts of these infections has invigorated the search for new drugs against tropical infectious diseases. The research efforts have involved increased application of computational technologies in mainstream drug discovery programs at the hit identification, hit-to-lead, and lead optimization stages. This review highlights various computer-aided drug discovery approaches that have been utilized in efforts to identify novel antimalarial, antitubercular, antitrypanosomal, and antileishmanial agents. The focus is largely on developments over the past 5 years (2010-2014). PMID:27622945

  10. Computer programs for estimation of STOL takeoff, landing, and static performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Post, S. E.

    1972-01-01

    A set of computer programs has been developed for evaluating the performance of powered-lift STOL aircraft. Included are a static performance summary and dynamic calculations of takeoff and landing performance. The input, output, options, and calculations for each program are described. The programs are written in FORTRAN IV and are currently available on TSS 360. Three independent sections are presented corresponding to the three programs: (1) static performance, (2) takeoff performance, and (3) landing performance.

  11. GEODYN programmer's guide, volume 2, part 2. [computer program for estimation of orbit and geodetic parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mullins, N. E.; Dao, N. C.; Martin, T. V.; Goad, C. C.; Boulware, N. L.; Chin, M. M.

    1972-01-01

    A computer program for executive control routine for orbit integration of artificial satellites is presented. At the beginning of each arc, the program initiates required constants as well as the variational partials at epoch. If epoch needs to be reset to a previous time, the program negates the stepsize, and calls for integration backward to the desired time. After backward integration is completed, the program resets the stepsize to the proper positive quantity.

  12. Economics of Malaria Prevention in US Travelers to West Africa

    PubMed Central

    Adachi, Kenji; Coleman, Margaret S.; Khan, Nomana; Jentes, Emily S.; Arguin, Paul; Rao, Sowmya R.; LaRocque, Regina C.; Sotir, Mark J.; Brunette, Gary; Ryan, Edward T.; Meltzer, Martin I.

    2014-01-01

    Background. Pretravel health consultations help international travelers manage travel-related illness risks through education, vaccination, and medication. This study evaluated costs and benefits of that portion of the health consultation associated with malaria prevention provided to US travelers bound for West Africa. Methods. The estimated change in disease risk and associated costs and benefits resulting from traveler adherence to malaria chemoprophylaxis were calculated from 2 perspectives: the healthcare payer's and the traveler's. We used data from the Global TravEpiNet network of US travel clinics that collect de-identified pretravel data for international travelers. Disease risk and chemoprophylaxis effectiveness were estimated from published medical reports. Direct medical costs were obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample and published literature. Results. We analyzed 1029 records from January 2009 to January 2011. Assuming full adherence to chemoprophylaxis regimens, consultations saved healthcare payers a per-traveler average of $14 (9-day trip) to $372 (30-day trip). For travelers, consultations resulted in a range of net cost of $20 (9-day trip) to a net savings of $32 (30-day trip). Differences were mostly driven by risk of malaria in the destination country. Conclusions. Our model suggests that healthcare payers save money for short- and longer-term trips, and that travelers save money for longer trips when travelers adhere to malaria recommendations and prophylactic regimens in West Africa. This is a potential incentive to healthcare payers to offer consistent pretravel preventive care to travelers. This financial benefit complements the medical benefit of reducing the risk of malaria. PMID:24014735

  13. Malaria morbidity and mortality in Ebola-affected countries caused by decreased health-care capacity, and the potential effect of mitigation strategies: a modelling analysis

    PubMed Central

    Walker, Patrick G T; White, Michael T; Griffin, Jamie T; Reynolds, Alison; Ferguson, Neil M; Ghani, Azra C

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background The ongoing Ebola epidemic in parts of west Africa largely overwhelmed health-care systems in 2014, making adequate care for malaria impossible and threatening the gains in malaria control achieved over the past decade. We quantified this additional indirect burden of Ebola virus disease. Methods We estimated the number of cases and deaths from malaria in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone from Demographic and Health Surveys data for malaria prevalence and coverage of malaria interventions before the Ebola outbreak. We then removed the effect of treatment and hospital care to estimate additional cases and deaths from malaria caused by reduced health-care capacity and potential disruption of delivery of insecticide-treated bednets. We modelled the potential effect of emergency mass drug administration in affected areas on malaria cases and health-care demand. Findings If malaria care ceased as a result of the Ebola epidemic, untreated cases of malaria would have increased by 45% (95% credible interval 43–49) in Guinea, 88% (83–93) in Sierra Leone, and 140% (135–147) in Liberia in 2014. This increase is equivalent to 3·5 million (95% credible interval 2·6 million to 4·9 million) additional untreated cases, with 10 900 (5700–21 400) additional malaria-attributable deaths. Mass drug administration and distribution of insecticide-treated bednets timed to coincide with the 2015 malaria transmission season could largely mitigate the effect of Ebola virus disease on malaria. Interpretation These findings suggest that untreated malaria cases as a result of reduced health-care capacity probably contributed substantially to the morbidity caused by the Ebola crisis. Mass drug administration can be an effective means to mitigate this burden and reduce the number of non-Ebola fever cases within health systems. Funding UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. PMID:25921597

  14. Investigating the Pathogenesis of Severe Malaria: A Multidisciplinary and Cross-Geographical Approach.

    PubMed

    Wassmer, Samuel C; Taylor, Terrie E; Rathod, Pradipsinh K; Mishra, Saroj K; Mohanty, Sanjib; Arevalo-Herrera, Myriam; Duraisingh, Manoj T; Smith, Joseph D

    2015-09-01

    More than a century after the discovery of Plasmodium spp. parasites, the pathogenesis of severe malaria is still not well understood. The majority of malaria cases are caused by Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, which differ in virulence, red blood cell tropism, cytoadhesion of infected erythrocytes, and dormant liver hypnozoite stages. Cerebral malaria coma is one of the most severe manifestations of P. falciparum infection. Insights into its complex pathophysiology are emerging through a combination of autopsy, neuroimaging, parasite binding, and endothelial characterizations. Nevertheless, important questions remain regarding why some patients develop life-threatening conditions while the majority of P. falciparum-infected individuals do not, and why clinical presentations differ between children and adults. For P. vivax, there is renewed recognition of severe malaria, but an understanding of the factors influencing disease severity is limited and remains an important research topic. Shedding light on the underlying disease mechanisms will be necessary to implement effective diagnostic tools for identifying and classifying severe malaria syndromes and developing new therapeutic approaches for severe disease. This review highlights progress and outstanding questions in severe malaria pathophysiology and summarizes key areas of pathogenesis research within the International Centers of Excellence for Malaria Research program.

  15. Some lessons for the future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955-1969).

    PubMed

    Nájera, José A; González-Silva, Matiana; Alonso, Pedro L

    2011-01-25

    Encouraged by the early success of using dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) against malaria, the World Health Organization (WHO) embarked on the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) in 1955. Fourteen years later, the campaign was discontinued when it was recognised that eradication was not achievable with the available means in many areas, although the long-term goal remained unchanged. During the GMEP, malaria was permanently eliminated from many regions. In other areas, however, substantial gains were lost in resurgences, sometimes of epidemic proportions. During the 1970s and 1980s, because of economic and financial crises, international support for malaria control declined rapidly, but in the past decade, following increasing demands from endemic countries and promising results from scaling up of control activities, interest in malaria elimination and the long-term goal of eradication has received international political and financial support. In 2007, there was a renewed call for malaria eradication and a consultative process to define a research and development agenda for malaria eradication (malERA) was established. Lessons learned from the GMEP (1955-1969) highlight the fact that no single strategy can be applicable everywhere and that a long-term commitment with a flexible strategy that includes community involvement, integration with health systems, and the development of agile surveillance systems is needed.

  16. Some Lessons for the Future from the Global Malaria Eradication Programme (1955–1969)

    PubMed Central

    Nájera, José A.; González-Silva, Matiana; Alonso, Pedro L.

    2011-01-01

    Encouraged by the early success of using dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) against malaria, the World Health Organization (WHO) embarked on the Global Malaria Eradication Program (GMEP) in 1955. Fourteen years later, the campaign was discontinued when it was recognised that eradication was not achievable with the available means in many areas, although the long-term goal remained unchanged. During the GMEP, malaria was permanently eliminated from many regions. In other areas, however, substantial gains were lost in resurgences, sometimes of epidemic proportions. During the 1970s and 1980s, because of economic and financial crises, international support for malaria control declined rapidly, but in the past decade, following increasing demands from endemic countries and promising results from scaling up of control activities, interest in malaria elimination and the long-term goal of eradication has received international political and financial support. In 2007, there was a renewed call for malaria eradication and a consultative process to define a research and development agenda for malaria eradication (malERA) was established. Lessons learned from the GMEP (1955–1969) highlight the fact that no single strategy can be applicable everywhere and that a long-term commitment with a flexible strategy that includes community involvement, integration with health systems, and the development of agile surveillance systems is needed. PMID:21311585

  17. A decade of malaria during pregnancy in Brazil: what has been done concerning prevention and management.

    PubMed

    Marchesini, Paola; Costa, Fabio Trindade Maranhão; Marinho, Claudio Romero Farias

    2014-08-01

    In Brazil, malaria remains a disease of major epidemiological importance because of the high number of cases in the Amazonian Region. Plasmodium spp infections during pregnancy are a significant public health problem with substantial risks for the pregnant woman, the foetus and the newborn child. In Brazil, the control of malaria during pregnancy is primarily achieved by prompt and effective treatment of the acute episodes. Thus, to assure rapid diagnosis and treatment for pregnant women with malaria, one of the recommended strategy for low transmission areas by World Health Organization and as part of a strategy by the Ministry of Health, the National Malaria Control Program has focused on integrative measures with woman and reproductive health. Here, we discuss the approach for the prevention and management of malaria during pregnancy in Brazil over the last 10 years (2003-2012) using morbidity data from Malaria Health Information System. Improving the efficiency and quality of healthcare and education and the consolidation of prevention programmes will be challenges in the control of malaria during pregnancy in the next decade.

  18. A nation-wide malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices survey in Malawi: objectives and methodology.

    PubMed

    Schultz, L J; Ettling, M; Chitsulo, L; Steketee, R W; Nyasulu, Y; Macheso, A; Nwanyanwu, O C

    1994-03-01

    A malaria knowledge, attitudes and practices survey was conducted in Malawi during April and May, 1992, to provide policy makers and program managers with information needed to design or improve malaria control programs, to establish epidemiologic and behavioral baselines, and to identify indicators for monitoring program effectiveness. Using cluster-sample survey methodology, 1531 households, in 30 clusters of 51-52 households each, were identified and members interviewed. Interviews were conducted by trained survey teams composed of young Malawian women with secondary level education. Heads of households were asked about malaria prevention methods used and about household economics; caretakers of children were asked about treatment and health seeking behavior in a recent malaria episode in a child; and women who had been pregnant in the past 5 years were asked about their antenatal clinic utilization and malaria during pregnancy. Survey results will be used to make programmatic decisions, including developing health education messages and establishing monitoring and evaluation of malaria control activities and outcomes in Malawi.

  19. Estimating the Counterfactual Impact of Conservation Programs on Land Cover Outcomes: The Role of Matching and Panel Regression Techniques.

    PubMed

    Jones, Kelly W; Lewis, David J

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation and conversion of native habitats continues to be the leading driver of biodiversity and ecosystem service loss. A number of conservation policies and programs are implemented--from protected areas to payments for ecosystem services (PES)--to deter these losses. Currently, empirical evidence on whether these approaches stop or slow land cover change is lacking, but there is increasing interest in conducting rigorous, counterfactual impact evaluations, especially for many new conservation approaches, such as PES and REDD, which emphasize additionality. In addition, several new, globally available and free high-resolution remote sensing datasets have increased the ease of carrying out an impact evaluation on land cover change outcomes. While the number of conservation evaluations utilizing 'matching' to construct a valid control group is increasing, the majority of these studies use simple differences in means or linear cross-sectional regression to estimate the impact of the conservation program using this matched sample, with relatively few utilizing fixed effects panel methods--an alternative estimation method that relies on temporal variation in the data. In this paper we compare the advantages and limitations of (1) matching to construct the control group combined with differences in means and cross-sectional regression, which control for observable forms of bias in program evaluation, to (2) fixed effects panel methods, which control for observable and time-invariant unobservable forms of bias, with and without matching to create the control group. We then use these four approaches to estimate forest cover outcomes for two conservation programs: a PES program in Northeastern Ecuador and strict protected areas in European Russia. In the Russia case we find statistically significant differences across estimators--due to the presence of unobservable bias--that lead to differences in conclusions about effectiveness. The Ecuador case illustrates that

  20. A new world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2010

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Transmission intensity affects almost all aspects of malaria epidemiology and the impact of malaria on human populations. Maps of transmission intensity are necessary to identify populations at different levels of risk and to evaluate objectively options for disease control. To remain relevant operationally, such maps must be updated frequently. Following the first global effort to map Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity in 2007, this paper describes the generation of a new world map for the year 2010. This analysis is extended to provide the first global estimates of two other metrics of transmission intensity for P. falciparum that underpin contemporary questions in malaria control: the entomological inoculation rate (PfEIR) and the basic reproductive number (PfR). Methods Annual parasite incidence data for 13,449 administrative units in 43 endemic countries were sourced to define the spatial limits of P. falciparum transmission in 2010 and 22,212 P. falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys were used in a model-based geostatistical (MBG) prediction to create a continuous contemporary surface of malaria endemicity within these limits. A suite of transmission models were developed that link PfPR to PfEIR and PfR and these were fitted to field data. These models were combined with the PfPR map to create new global predictions of PfEIR and PfR. All output maps included measured uncertainty. Results An estimated 1.13 and 1.44 billion people worldwide were at risk of unstable and stable P. falciparum malaria, respectively. The majority of the endemic world was predicted with a median PfEIR of less than one and a median PfRc of less than two. Values of either metric exceeding 10 were almost exclusive to Africa. The uncertainty described in both PfEIR and PfR was substantial in regions of intense transmission. Conclusions The year 2010 has a particular significance as an evaluation milestone for malaria global health policy. The maps presented here

  1. Risk factors associated with malaria infection in an urban setting.

    PubMed

    Mendez, F; Carrasquilla, G; Muñoz, A

    2000-01-01

    Incidence of malaria in urban settings is a growing concern in many regions of the world and individual risk factors need to be identified to appropriately adjust control strategies. We carried out a cross-sectional study in 1993/94 in an urban area of the largest port of the Pacific Coast of Colombia, where transmission has had an upward trend over the past 5 years. Prevalence of malaria infection was estimated in areas of the city with the highest incidence of disease, and the association between some characteristics of the population and the risk of malaria infection was assessed. Prevalence of malaria infection was 4.4% among the 1380 studied people and we found that it decreased with older age, and with knowledge of disease and preventive measures directed to elimination of breeding sites. In addition, the infection was positively associated with exposure to the forest (P < 0.05), although most of the cases (57/61, 93%) were likely to have been acquired in the urban area. We also found that individuals receiving antimalarial treatment in the previous month had around twice the risk of being infected as compared with those without treatment. In addition, our results suggest that use of bednets could not be a very effective protective measure in settings such as that of our study, and that environmental interventions may be needed to decrease the risk of infection.

  2. DIAGNOSTIC PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF THE SD BIOLINE MALARIA ANTIGEN AG PF/PAN TEST (05FK60) IN A MALARIA ENDEMIC AREA OF SOUTHERN ETHIOPIA

    PubMed Central

    TADESSE, Endale; WORKALEMAHU, Bereket; SHIMELIS, Techalew

    2016-01-01

    SUMMARY Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) capable of detecting and differentiating Plasmodium species are needed in areas in which microscopy is unsuitable. This study was conducted to assess the diagnostic performance of the rapid test kit - SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag Pf/Pan(r) (05FK60) in an endemic area. Microscopy of Giemsa-stained blood films were performed to detect and estimate the Plasmodium density in malaria suspected patients. The performance of the SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag Pf/Pan test was evaluated using 272 Plasmodium-positive and 102 negative blood samples. The overall sensitivity of the SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag Pf/Pan test was 99.5% for P. falciparum and 92.6% for non-P. falciparum malaria infections. The respective specificity, PPV, and NPV of the test were 98.0, 98.4, and 99.0% for the diagnosis of P. falciparum, and 100.0 %, 100.0%, and 94.4% for non-P. falciparum species. The SD BIOLINE Malaria Ag Pf/Pan test showed an excellent performance in diagnosing Plasmodium infections in an endemic setting. Therefore, this point-of-care test could be used as an alternative to microscopy in places where P. falciparum is endemic and microscopy is unsuitable. PMID:27680164

  3. Agro-ecology, household economics and malaria in Uganda: empirical correlations between agricultural and health outcomes

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    agricultural basis of malaria transmission is the lack of data integrating both the health and agricultural information necessary to satisfy the differing methodologies used by the two sectors. A national platform for collaboration between the agricultural and health sectors could help align programs to achieve better measurements of agricultural interactions with vector reproduction and evaluate the potential for agricultural policy and programs to support rural malaria control. PMID:24990158

  4. Presumptive Treatment of Malaria from Formal and Informal Drug Vendors in Nigeria

    PubMed Central

    Isiguzo, Chinwoke; Anyanti, Jennifer; Ujuju, Chinazo; Nwokolo, Ernest; De La Cruz, Anna; Schatzkin, Eric; Modrek, Sepideh; Montagu, Dominic; Liu, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite policies that recommend parasitological testing before treatment for malaria, presumptive treatment remains widespread in Nigeria. The majority of Nigerians obtain antimalarial drugs from two types of for-profit drug vendors—formal and informal medicine shops—but little is known about the quality of malaria care services provided at these shops. Aims This study seeks to (1) describe the profile of patients who seek treatment at different types of drug outlets, (2) document the types of drugs purchased for treating malaria, (3) assess which patients are purchasing recommended drugs, and (4) estimate the extent of malaria over-treatment. Methods In urban, peri-urban, and rural areas in Oyo State, customers exiting proprietary and patent medicine vendor (PPMV) shops or pharmacies having purchased anti-malarial drugs were surveyed and tested with malaria rapid diagnostic test. A follow-up phone survey was conducted four days after to assess self-reported drug administration. Bivariate and multivariate regression analysis was conducted to determine the correlates of patronizing a PPMV versus pharmacy, and the likelihood of purchasing an artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) drug. Results Of the 457participants who sought malaria treatment in 49 enrolled outlets, nearly 92% had diagnosed their condition by themselves, a family member, or a friend. Nearly 60% pharmacy customers purchased an ACT compared to only 29% of PPMV customers, and pharmacy customers paid significantly more on average. Multivariate regression results show that patrons of PPMVs were younger, less wealthy, waited fewer days before seeking care, and were less likely to be diagnosed at a hospital, clinic, or laboratory. Only 3.9% of participants tested positive with a malaria rapid diagnostic test. Conclusions Poorer individuals seeking care at PPMVs are more likely to receive inappropriate malaria treatment when compared to those who go to pharmacies. Increasing accessibility to

  5. Exploring the seasonality of reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga, South Africa.

    PubMed

    Silal, Sheetal Prakash; Barnes, Karen I; Kok, Gerdalize; Mabuza, Aaron; Little, Francesca

    2013-01-01

    South Africa, having met the World Health Organisation's pre-elimination criteria, has set a goal to achieve malaria elimination by 2018. Mpumalanga, one of three provinces where malaria transmission still occurs, has a malaria season subject to unstable transmission that is prone to sporadic outbreaks. As South Africa prepares to intensify efforts towards malaria elimination, there is a need to understand patterns in malaria transmission so that efforts may be targeted appropriately. This paper describes the seasonality of transmission by exploring the relationship between malaria cases and three potential drivers: rainfall, geography (physical location) and the source of infection (local/imported). Seasonal decomposition of the time series by Locally estimated scatterplot smoothing is applied to the case data for the geographical and source of infection sub-groups. The relationship between cases and rainfall is assessed using a cross-correlation analysis. The malaria season was found to have a short period of no/low level of reported cases and a triple peak in reported cases between September and May; the three peaks occurring in October, January and May. The seasonal pattern of locally-sourced infection mimics the triple-peak characteristic of the total series while imported infections contribute mostly to the second and third peak of the season (Christmas and Easter respectively). Geographically, Bushbuckridge municipality, which exhibits a different pattern of cases, contributed mostly to the first and second peaks in cases while Maputo province (Mozambique) experienced a similar pattern in transmission to the imported cases. Though rainfall lagged at 4 weeks was significantly correlated with malaria cases, this effect was dampened due to the growing proportion of imported cases since 2006. These findings may be useful as they enhance the understanding of the current incidence pattern and may inform mathematical models that enable one to predict the impact

  6. Exchange Transfusion in Severe Falciparum Malaria

    PubMed Central

    Khatib, Khalid Ismail

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is endemic in India with the incidence of P. falciparum Malaria increasing gradually over the last decade. Severe malaria is an acute disease, caused by P. falciparum, but increasingly also by P. vivax with major signs of organ dysfunction and/or high levels of parasitaemia (>10%) in blood smear. Use of exchange transfusion with antimalarial drug therapy as an additional modality of treatment in severe Falciparum malaria is controversial and is unclear. We report a case of severe malaria complicated by multiorgan failure and ARDS. Patient responded well to manual exchange transfusion with standard artesunate-based chemotherapy. PMID:27042503

  7. State-level evaluations of the Weatherization Assistance Program in 1990--1996: A metaevaluation that estimates national savings

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, L.

    1997-08-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy`s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program (the Program) is implemented in all fifty states. The Program strives to increase the energy efficiency of dwellings occupied by low-income persons in order to reduce their energy consumption, lower their fuel bills, increase the comfort of their homes, and safeguard their health. It targets vulnerable groups including the elderly, people with disabilities, and families with children. The most recent comprehensive National Evaluation of the Program was based on an analysis of changes in pre- and post-weatherization energy consumption for homes weatherized in 1989. The National Evaluation estimated average savings for several fuel types. For dwellings that heated primarily with natural gas, which made up over 50% of the sample, average savings per dwelling were 17.3 MBtu, which was 18.3% of space heating consumption, or 13.0% of the total consumption of natural gas for all end users.

  8. [Malaria, anopheles, the anti-malaria campaign in French Guyana: between dogmatism and judgment].

    PubMed

    Raccurt, C P

    1997-01-01

    The recrudescence of malaria in French Guiana involves both border regions. One notes the predominance of Plasmodium falciparum along the Maroni River on the Surinam frontier and the transmission of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in amerindian settlements along the Oyapock River on the Brazilian frontier. The main mosquito vector is the endoexophile species, Anopheles darlingi. The role of man-biting forest anophelines in malaria transmission is still unclear. At the present time, malaria control is based on curative treatment of the confirmed cases (approximately 4,000 cases a year by active and passive screening). Vector control is supported by annual houses insecticides spraying and, to a lesser degree, use of insecticide-impregnated bednets. The main limiting factors for successful control have been difficulty in implementing a strategy adapted to the cultures of the amerindian and bushnegro populations living on either side of the river-frontiers and in organizing effective cross-border cooperation. The alleged role of immigration in transmission dynamics has been more speculative than real. However the growth of the population and the increase of human activities inside rain forest areas have favorized Anopheles darlingi breeding by uncontrolled deforestation. This situation need to be monitored closely. Information campaigns to improve public awareness could be useful. Following measures could improve control in sparsely populated, remote areas: to promote an integrated preventive program for a real community-wide distribution of primary health care; to discontinue insecticides spraying in houses which is poorly accepted by the bushnegro population and unsuitable to the amerindian dwellings; to support the use of personal protection; to initiate an effective anopheline larvae control; to determine the impact of the transmission during day-time activities especially among very small settlements far from the main villages where members of the

  9. Review of Evaluation, Measurement and Verification Approaches Used to Estimate the Load Impacts and Effectiveness of Energy Efficiency Programs

    SciTech Connect

    Messenger, Mike; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Golemboski, Bill; Goldman, Charles A.; Schiller, Steven R.

    2010-04-14

    Public and private funding for end-use energy efficiency actions is expected to increase significantly in the United States over the next decade. For example, Barbose et al (2009) estimate that spending on ratepayer-funded energy efficiency programs in the U.S. could increase from $3.1 billion in 2008 to $7.5 and 12.4 billion by 2020 under their medium and high scenarios. This increase in spending could yield annual electric energy savings ranging from 0.58% - 0.93% of total U.S. retail sales in 2020, up from 0.34% of retail sales in 2008. Interest in and support for energy efficiency has broadened among national and state policymakers. Prominent examples include {approx}$18 billion in new funding for energy efficiency programs (e.g., State Energy Program, Weatherization, and Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants) in the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Increased funding for energy efficiency should result in more benefits as well as more scrutiny of these results. As energy efficiency becom