Science.gov

Sample records for mammalogy trends biases

  1. Temperature trend biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2016-04-01

    In an accompanying talk we show that well-homogenized national dataset warm more than temperatures from global collections averaged over the region of common coverage. In this poster we want to present auxiliary work about possible biases in the raw observations and on how well relative statistical homogenization can remove trend biases. There are several possible causes of cooling biases, which have not been studied much. Siting could be an important factor. Urban stations tend to move away from the centre to better locations. Many stations started inside of urban areas and are nowadays more outside. Even for villages the temperature difference between the centre and edge can be 0.5°C. When a city station moves to an airport, which often happened around WWII, this takes the station (largely) out of the urban heat island. During the 20th century the Stevenson screen was established as the dominant thermometer screen. This screen protected the thermometer much better against radiation than earlier designs. Deficits of earlier measurement methods have artificially warmed the temperatures in the 19th century. Newer studies suggest we may have underestimated the size of this bias. Currently we are in a transition to Automatic Weather Stations. The net global effect of this transition is not clear at this moment. Irrigation on average decreases the 2m-temperature by about 1 degree centigrade. At the same time, irrigation has increased significantly during the last century. People preferentially live in irrigated areas and weather stations serve agriculture. Thus it is possible that there is a higher likelihood that weather stations are erected in irrigated areas than elsewhere. In this case irrigation could lead to a spurious cooling trend. In the Parallel Observations Science Team of the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI-POST) we are studying influence of the introduction of Stevenson screens and Automatic Weather Stations using parallel measurements

  2. New Trends in Magnetic Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mougin, Alexandra; Mangin, Stéphane; Bobo, Jean-Francois; Loidl, Alois

    2005-05-01

    The study of layered magnetic structures is one of the hottest topics in magnetism due to the growing attraction of applications in magnetic sensors and magnetic storage media, such as random access memory. For almost half a century, new discoveries have driven researchers to re-investigate magnetism in thin film structures. Phenomena such as giant magnetoresistance, tunneling magnetoresistance, exchange bias and interlayer exchange coupling led to new ideas to construct devices, based not only on semiconductors but on a variety of magnetic materials Upon cooling fine cobalt particles in a magnetic field through the Néel temperature of their outer antiferromagnetic oxide layer, Meiklejohn and Bean discovered exchange bias in 1956. The exchange bias effect through which an antiferromagnetic AF layer can cause an adjacent ferromagnetic F layer to develop a preferred direction of magnetization, is widely used in magnetoelectronics technology to pin the magnetization of a device reference layer in a desired direction. However, the origin and effects due to exchange interaction across the interface between antiferromagneic and ferromagnetic layers are still debated after about fifty years of research, due to the extreme difficulty associated with the determination of the magnetic interfacial structure in F/AF bilayers. Indeed, in an AF/F bilayer system, the AF layer acts as “the invisible man” during conventional magnetic measurements and the presence of the exchange coupling is evidenced indirectly through the unusual behavior of the adjacent F layer. Basically, the coercive field of the F layer increases in contact with the AF and, in some cases, its hysteresis loop is shifted by an amount called exchange bias field. Thus, AF/F exchange coupling generates a new source of anisotropy in the F layer. This induced anisotropy strongly depends on basic features such as the magnetocrystalline anisotropy, crystallographic and spin structures, defects, domain patterns etc

  3. Evolutionary Trends and the Salience Bias (with Apologies to Oil Tankers, Karl Marx, and Others).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McShea, Daniel W.

    1994-01-01

    Examines evolutionary trends, specifically trends in size, complexity, and fitness. Notes that documentation of these trends consists of either long lists of cases, or descriptions of a small number of salient cases. Proposes the use of random samples to avoid this "saliency bias." (SR)

  4. Oligonucleotide bias in Bacillus subtilis: general trends and taxonomic comparisons.

    PubMed Central

    Rocha, E P; Viari, A; Danchin, A

    1998-01-01

    We present a general analysis of oligonucleotide usage in the complete genome of Bacillus subtilis . Several datasets were built in order to assign various biological contexts to the biased use of words and to reveal local asymmetries in word usage that may be coupled with replication, the control of gene expression and the restriction/modification system. This analysis was complemented by cross-comparisons with the complete genomes of Escherichia coli , Haemophilus influenzae and Methanococcus jannaschii . We have observed a large number of biased oligonucleotides for words of size up to 8, throughout the datasets and species, indicating that such long strict words play an important role as biological signals. We speculate that some of them are involved in interactions with DNA and/or RNA polymerases. An extensive analysis of palindrome abundances and distributions provides the surprising result that prophage-like elements embedded in the genome exhibit a smaller avoidance of restriction sites. This may reinforce a recently proposed hypothesis of a selfish gene phenomena in the transfer of restriction/modification systems in bacteria. PMID:9611243

  5. The Influence of Logger Bias on Reported Temperature Trends: Implications for Temperature Monitoring Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malcolm, I.; Fryer, R. J.; Bacon, P. J.; Stirling, D.

    2015-12-01

    There has been increasing interest in river temperature monitoring and research in recent years. This has been driven by factors including a greater awareness of the importance of river temperature for freshwater ecology, the potential for detrimental extremes under climate change and the availability of increasingly affordable dataloggers. A number of studies have attempted to collate and analyse pre-existing long-term (decadal) datasets to assess for evidence of temporal trends. These studies require considerable care given the magnitude of temporal trends (often < 1 degree per decade), the low signal to noise ratio in the data and the potential for bias across different makes, models and individual dataloggers. Despite these issues, data quality control often receives only a superficial consideration with subjective assessments of data quality or a reliance on manufacturer reported accuracy with consequences for the reliability and interpretation of findings. This study assessed the potential influence of logger bias on reported temperature trends in the Girnock Burn, Scotland over > 25 years. The bias of temperature measurements made by different dataloggers (two makes and five models) was determined through cross-calibration against a reference datalogger. Long-term trends in stream temperature metrics (daily mean, max, min) were characterised using Generalised Additive Mixed Models (GAMM). Models were fitted to (1) the raw data and (2) data corrected for logger bias. Significant non-linear temporal trends were observed in the raw data. These trends were accentuated when corrected for logger bias. Given the potential to accentuate or remove long-term trends, it is suggested that robust internal and external calibration and quality control procedures should be established for new temperature networks. Such approaches are capable of removing logger bias and improving accuracy by an order of magnitude over manufacturer stated values.

  6. Citizen science: best practices to remove observer bias in trend analysis.

    PubMed

    Gonsamo, Alemu; D'Odorico, Petra

    2014-12-01

    Citizen science, time series records over long periods of time, and wide geographic areas offer many opportunities for scientists to answer questions that would otherwise be impractical to investigate. Citizen scientists currently play active roles in a wide range of ecological projects; however, observer biases such as varying perception of events or objects being observed and quality of observations present challenges to successfully derive interannual variability and trend statistics from time series records. It is recommended that citizen science records, particularly those involving events such as plant phenology, should not be directly averaged across sites. The interannual variability expressed as an anomaly and trend expressed as a regression slope should be calculated for each site. Only the site level anomaly and regression slopes should be averaged to suppress observer biases.

  7. Cor­rection of stream quality trends for the effects of laboratory mea­surement bias

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alexander, Richard B.; Smith, Richard A.; Schwarz, Gregory E.

    1993-01-01

    We present a statistical model relating measurements of water quality to associated errors in laboratory methods. Estimation of the model allows us to correct trends in water quality for long-term and short-term variations in laboratory measurement errors. An illustration of the bias correction method for a large national set of stream water quality and quality assurance data shows that reductions in the bias of estimates of water quality trend slopes are achieved at the expense of increases in the variance of these estimates. Slight improvements occur in the precision of estimates of trend in bias by using correlative information on bias and water quality to estimate random variations in measurement bias. The results of this investigation stress the need for reliable, long-term quality assurance data and efficient statistical methods to assess the effects of measurement errors on the detection of water quality trends.

  8. Review of mammalogical research in the Guianas of northern South America.

    PubMed

    Lim, Burton K

    2016-03-01

    Research on mammals in the Guianas of northern South America has had a checkered history. In this review, I summarize the notable contributions to mammalogical study in Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana. These studies began in the mid-18th century with the binomial nomenclature system of scientific classification created by the Swedish naturalist Carl Linnaeus, who described 23 species new to science based on holotype specimens from the Guianas. Notwithstanding popular accounts by amateur naturalists visiting this region, over the next 7 decades there was only sporadic taxonomic work done on Guianan mammals primarily by researchers at European museums. The first comprehensive biological exploration took place in the 1840s during a geographic survey of the boundaries of British Guiana. However, it was not until almost half a century later that scientific publications began to regularly document the increasing species diversity in the region, including the prodigious work of Oldfield Thomas at the British Museum of Natural History in London. Another lull in the study of mammals occurred in the mid-1910s to the early 1960s after which foreign researchers began to rediscover the Guianas and their pristine habitats. This biological renaissance is still ongoing and I give a prospectus on the direction of future research in one of the last frontiers of tropical rainforest. An initiative that would be greatly beneficial is the establishment of a university network in the Guianas with graduate-based research to develop a cadre of professional experts on biodiversity and evolution as seen in other countries of South America.

  9. Use of Multiple Imputation to Correct for Bias in Lung Cancer Incidence Trends by Histologic Subtype

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Mandi; Feuer, Eric J.; Cronin, Kathleen A.; Caporaso, Neil E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Over the past several decades, advances in lung cancer research and practice have led to refinements of histological diagnosis of lung cancer. The differential use and subsequent alterations of non-specific morphology codes, however, may have caused artifactual fluctuations in the incidence rates for histologic subtypes, thus biasing temporal trends. Methods We developed a multiple imputation (MI) method to correct lung cancer incidence for non-specific histology using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program during 1975–2010. Results For adenocarcinoma in men and squamous in both genders, the change to a increasing trend around 2005, after more than ten years of decreasing incidence, is apparently an artifact of the changes in histopathology practice and coding system. After imputation, the rates remained decreasing for adenocarcinoma and squamous in men, and became constant for squamous in women. Conclusions As molecular features of distinct histologies are increasingly identified by new technologies, accurate histological distinctions are becoming increasingly relevant to more effective 'targeted' therapies, and therefore, are important to track in patients. However, without incorporating the coding changes, the incidence trends estimated for histologic subtypes could be misleading. Impact The MI approach provides a valuable tool for bridging the different histology definitions, thus permitting meaningful inferences about the long-term trends of lung cancer by histological subtype. PMID:24855099

  10. Quantifying the Economic and Cultural Biases of Social Media through Trending Topics.

    PubMed

    Carrascosa, Juan Miguel; Cuevas, Ruben; Gonzalez, Roberto; Azcorra, Arturo; Garcia, David

    2015-01-01

    Online social media has recently irrupted as the last major venue for the propagation of news and cultural content, competing with traditional mass media and allowing citizens to access new sources of information. In this paper, we study collectively filtered news and popular content in Twitter, known as Trending Topics (TTs), to quantify the extent to which they show similar biases known for mass media. We use two datasets collected in 2013 and 2014, including more than 300.000 TTs from 62 countries. The existing patterns of leader-follower relationships among countries reveal systemic biases known for mass media: Countries concentrate their attention to small groups of other countries, generating a pattern of centralization in which TTs follow the gradient of wealth across countries. At the same time, we find subjective biases within language communities linked to the cultural similarity of countries, in which countries with closer cultures and shared languages tend to follow each other's TTs. Moreover, using a novel methodology based on the Google News service, we study the influence of mass media in TTs for four countries. We find that roughly half of the TTs in Twitter overlap with news reported by mass media, and that the rest of TTs are more likely to spread internationally within Twitter. Our results confirm that online social media have the power to independently spread content beyond mass media, but at the same time social media content follows economic incentives and is subject to cultural factors and language barriers.

  11. Quantifying the Economic and Cultural Biases of Social Media through Trending Topics

    PubMed Central

    Carrascosa, Juan Miguel; Cuevas, Ruben; Gonzalez, Roberto; Azcorra, Arturo; Garcia, David

    2015-01-01

    Online social media has recently irrupted as the last major venue for the propagation of news and cultural content, competing with traditional mass media and allowing citizens to access new sources of information. In this paper, we study collectively filtered news and popular content in Twitter, known as Trending Topics (TTs), to quantify the extent to which they show similar biases known for mass media. We use two datasets collected in 2013 and 2014, including more than 300.000 TTs from 62 countries. The existing patterns of leader-follower relationships among countries reveal systemic biases known for mass media: Countries concentrate their attention to small groups of other countries, generating a pattern of centralization in which TTs follow the gradient of wealth across countries. At the same time, we find subjective biases within language communities linked to the cultural similarity of countries, in which countries with closer cultures and shared languages tend to follow each other’s TTs. Moreover, using a novel methodology based on the Google News service, we study the influence of mass media in TTs for four countries. We find that roughly half of the TTs in Twitter overlap with news reported by mass media, and that the rest of TTs are more likely to spread internationally within Twitter. Our results confirm that online social media have the power to independently spread content beyond mass media, but at the same time social media content follows economic incentives and is subject to cultural factors and language barriers. PMID:26230656

  12. This week?s Citation Classic: 'Stickel, L. F. A comparison of certain methods of measuring ranges of small mammals. J. Mammalogy 35: 1-15, 1954.'

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stickel, L.F.

    1986-01-01

    During my first employment as a junior biologist conducting food habits analyses at the Patuxent Research Refuge (now Patuxent Wildlife Research Center) of the US Fish and Wildlife Service, the first station director, Arnold L. Nelson, gave each staff biologist the opportunity to spend a little time conducting field studies on the 2,600-acre research area. These studies were to help in ecological evaluation of the area, but also, no doubt, functioned as a morale builder for biologists daily engaged in difficult, demanding and confining laboratory work. I undertook to measure the population density of small mammals in different habitats. The state-of-the-art methods recommended to me and prevalent in the literature worried me, especially after preliminary field work. Reading the classic, paper by W.H. Burt [Terrioriality and home range concepts as applied to mammals. J. Mammalogy 24:346-352, 1943] was a turning point for me in seeing that knowledge of home-range size was the key to measuring population density. My first papers employed these concepts in field evaluations. However, they could give-only limited attention to the question of how home ranges could be measured. Furthermore, the importance of knowledge of the home range to habitat evaluation and to understanding animal behavior was becoming increasingly apparent. Advocacy of many different methods of measuring home ranges appeared in the literature. It did not seem possible to evaluate them objectively. It occurred to me that artificial populations could be used to help in understanding the mechanisms of measuring home ranges. The effects of random trap-visiting, bias toward central traps, trap-spacing, range shape, and other factors could be considered. So grids of traps were inked onto oversize graph paper, and simulated ranges were cut from plastic to be tossed as randomly as possible on the trap-grids. It was a slow, laborious job. Analysis showed that random captures in artificial populations produced

  13. Child mortality estimation: methods used to adjust for bias due to AIDS in estimating trends in under-five mortality.

    PubMed

    Walker, Neff; Hill, Kenneth; Zhao, Fengmin

    2012-01-01

    In most low- and middle-income countries, child mortality is estimated from data provided by mothers concerning the survival of their children using methods that assume no correlation between the mortality risks of the mothers and those of their children. This assumption is not valid for populations with generalized HIV epidemics, however, and in this review, we show how the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) uses a cohort component projection model to correct for AIDS-related biases in the data used to estimate trends in under-five mortality. In this model, births in a given year are identified as occurring to HIV-positive or HIV-negative mothers, the lives of the infants and mothers are projected forward using survivorship probabilities to estimate survivors at the time of a given survey, and the extent to which excess mortality of children goes unreported because of the deaths of HIV-infected mothers prior to the survey is calculated. Estimates from the survey for past periods can then be adjusted for the estimated bias. The extent of the AIDS-related bias depends crucially on the dynamics of the HIV epidemic, on the length of time before the survey that the estimates are made for, and on the underlying non-AIDS child mortality. This simple methodology (which does not take into account the use of effective antiretroviral interventions) gives results qualitatively similar to those of other studies.

  14. Divergent Urban-Rural Trends in College Attendance: State Policy Bias and Structural Exclusion in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tam, Tony; Jiang, Jin

    2015-01-01

    Despite the massive expansion of higher education in China since 1998, the cohort trends of urban and rural "hukou" holders in college attendance have widened sharply. Prevailing explanations emphasize the advantages of urban students over rural students in school quality and household financial resources. We propose the structural…

  15. On the relaxation behaviors of slow and classical glitches: Observational biases and their opposite recovery trends

    SciTech Connect

    Xie, Yi; Zhang, Shuang-Nan

    2013-11-20

    We study the pulsar timing properties and the data analysis methods of glitch recoveries. In some cases one first fits the times of arrival (TOAs) to obtain the 'time-averaged' frequency ν and its first derivative ν-dot , and then fits models to them. However, our simulations show that ν and ν-dot obtained in this way are systematically biased unless the time intervals between the nearby data points of TOAs are smaller than about 10{sup 4} s, which is much shorter than typical observation intervals. Alternatively, glitch parameters can be obtained by fitting the phases directly with relatively smaller biases, but the initial recovery time scale is usually chosen by eye, which may introduce a strong bias. We also construct a phenomenological model by assuming a pulsar spin-down law of ν-dot ν{sup −3}=−H{sub 0}G(t) with G(t) = 1 + κe {sup –t/τ} for a glitch recovery, where H {sub 0} is a constant and κ and τ are the glitch parameters to be found. This model can reproduce the observed data of slow glitches from B1822–09 and the giant classical glitch of B2334+61, with κ < 0 or κ > 0, respectively. We then use this model to simulate TOA data and test several fitting procedures for a glitch recovery. The best procedure is (1) to use a very high order polynomial (e.g., to 50th order) to precisely describe the phase, (2) obtain ν(t) and ν-dot (t) from the polynomial, then (3) obtain the glitch parameters from ν(t) or ν-dot (t). Finally, the uncertainty in the starting time t {sub 0} of a classical glitch causes uncertainties in some glitch parameters, but less so for a slow glitch, t {sub 0}, of which can be determined from data.

  16. Corrigendum to: “Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: a re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001” [Accid. Anal. Prev. 43 (2011) 1245–1251].

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to the previously published paper: “Publication bias and time-trend bias in meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy: A re-analysis of Attewell, Glase and McFadden, 2001” [Accid. Anal. Prev. (2011) 1245–1251]. This corrigendum was prepared to correct errors in data and analysis in the previously published paper. Like the previously published paper, this paper confirms that the meta-analysis of bicycle helmet efficacy reported by Attewell, Glase and McFadden (Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2001, 345–352) was influenced by publication bias and time-trend bias that was not controlled for. As a result, the analysis reported inflated estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets. This paper presents a re-analysis of the study. The re-analysis included: (1) Ensuring the inclusion of all published studies by means of continuity corrections of estimates of effect relying on zero counts; (2) detecting and adjusting for publication bias by means of the trim-and-fill method; (3) detecting and trying to account for a time-trend bias in estimates of the effects of bicycle helmets; (4) updating the study by including recently published studies evaluating the effects of bicycle helmets. The re-analysis shows smaller safety benefits associated with the use of bicycle helmets than the original study.

  17. Possible Biases of Researchers’ Attitudes Toward Video Games: Publication Trends Analysis of the Medical Literature (1980–2013)

    PubMed Central

    Rovner, Mitchell; Appel, David Ian; Abrams, Aaron W; Rotem, Michal; Bloch, Yuval

    2016-01-01

    Background The study of video games is expanding, and so is the debate regarding their possible positive and deleterious effects. As controversies continue, several researchers have expressed their concerns about substantial biases existing in the field, which might lead to the creation of a skewed picture, both in the professional and in the lay literature. However, no study has tried to examine this issue quantitatively. Objective The objective of our study was to examine possible systematic biases in the literature, by analyzing the publication trends of the medical and life sciences literature regarding video games. Methods We performed a complete and systematic PubMed search up to December 31, 2013. We assessed all 1927 articles deemed relevant for their attitude toward video games according to the focus, hypothesis, and authors’ interpretation of the study results, using a 3-category outcome (positive, negative, and neutral). We assessed the prevalence of different attitudes for possible association with year of publication, location of researchers, academic discipline, methodological research, and centrality of the publishing journals. Results The attitude toward video games presented in publications varied by year of publication, location, academic discipline, and methodological research applied (P<.001 for all). Moreover, representation of different attitudes differed according to centrality of the journals, as measured by their impact factor (P<.001). Conclusions The results suggest that context, whether scientific or social, is related to researchers’ attitudes toward video games. Readers, both lay and professional, should weigh these contextual variables when interpreting studies’ results, in light of the possible bias they carry. The results also support a need for a more balanced, open-minded approach toward video games, as it is likely that this complex phenomenon carries novel opportunities as well as new hazards. PMID:27430187

  18. Bias and precision of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1984

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Brooks, M.H.; Schroder, L.J.; Willoughby, T.C.

    1987-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey operated a blind audit sample program during 1974 to test the effects of the sample handling and shipping procedures used by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network on the quality of wet deposition data produced by the combined networks. Blind audit samples, which were dilutions of standard reference water samples, were submitted by network site operators to the central analytical laboratory disguised as actual wet deposition samples. Results from the analyses of blind audit samples were used to calculate estimates of analyte bias associated with all network wet deposition samples analyzed in 1984 and to estimate analyte precision. Concentration differences between double blind samples that were submitted to the central analytical laboratory and separate analyses of aliquots of those blind audit samples that had not undergone network sample handling and shipping were used to calculate analyte masses that apparently were added to each blind audit sample by routine network handling and shipping procedures. These calculated masses indicated statistically significant biases for magnesium, sodium , potassium, chloride, and sulfate. Median calculated masses were 41.4 micrograms (ug) for calcium, 14.9 ug for magnesium, 23.3 ug for sodium, 0.7 ug for potassium, 16.5 ug for chloride and 55.3 ug for sulfate. Analyte precision was estimated using two different sets of replicate measures performed by the central analytical laboratory. Estimated standard deviations were similar to those previously reported. (Author 's abstract)

  19. Correction Technique for Raman Water Vapor Lidar Signal-Dependent Bias and Suitability for Water Wapor Trend Monitoring in the Upper Troposphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Whiteman, D. N.; Cadirola, M.; Venable, D.; Calhoun, M.; Miloshevich, L; Vermeesch, K.; Twigg, L.; Dirisu, A.; Hurst, D.; Hall, E.; Jordan, A.; Voemel, H.

    2012-01-01

    The MOHAVE-2009 campaign brought together diverse instrumentation for measuring atmospheric water vapor. We report on the participation of the ALVICE (Atmospheric Laboratory for Validation, Interagency Collaboration and Education) mobile laboratory in the MOHAVE-2009 campaign. In appendices we also report on the performance of the corrected Vaisala RS92 radiosonde measurements during the campaign, on a new radiosonde based calibration algorithm that reduces the influence of atmospheric variability on the derived calibration constant, and on other results of the ALVICE deployment. The MOHAVE-2009 campaign permitted the Raman lidar systems participating to discover and address measurement biases in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The ALVICE lidar system was found to possess a wet bias which was attributed to fluorescence of insect material that was deposited on the telescope early in the mission. Other sources of wet biases are discussed and data from other Raman lidar systems are investigated, revealing that wet biases in upper tropospheric (UT) and lower stratospheric (LS) water vapor measurements appear to be quite common in Raman lidar systems. Lower stratospheric climatology of water vapor is investigated both as a means to check for the existence of these wet biases in Raman lidar data and as a source of correction for the bias. A correction technique is derived and applied to the ALVICE lidar water vapor profiles. Good agreement is found between corrected ALVICE lidar measurments and those of RS92, frost point hygrometer and total column water. The correction is offered as a general method to both quality control Raman water vapor lidar data and to correct those data that have signal-dependent bias. The influence of the correction is shown to be small at regions in the upper troposphere where recent work indicates detection of trends in atmospheric water vapor may be most robust. The correction shown here holds promise for permitting useful upper

  20. Precision and bias of selected analytes reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network, 1983; and January 1980 through September 1984

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schroder, L.J.; Bricker, A.W.; Willoughby, T.C.

    1985-01-01

    Blind-audit samples with known analyte concentrations have been prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey and distributed to the National Atmospheric Deposition Program 's Central Analytical Laboratory. The difference between the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network reported analyte concentrations and known analyte concentrations have been calculated, and the bias has been determined. Calcium, magnesium , sodium, and chloride were biased at the 99-percent confidence limit; potassium and sulfate were unbiased at the 99-percent confidence limit, for 1983 results. Relative-percent differences between the measured and known analyte concentration for calcium , magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate have been calculated for 1983. The median relative percent difference for calcium was 17.0; magnesium was 6.4; sodium was 10.8; potassium was 6.4; chloride was 17.2; and sulfate was -5.3. These relative percent differences should be used to correct the 1983 data before user-analysis of the data. Variances have been calculated for calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, and sulfate determinations. These variances should be applicable to natural-sample analyte concentrations reported by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and National Trends Network for calendar year 1983. (USGS)

  1. Bias in research.

    PubMed

    Simundić, Ana-Maria

    2013-01-01

    By writing scientific articles we communicate science among colleagues and peers. By doing this, it is our responsibility to adhere to some basic principles like transparency and accuracy. Authors, journal editors and reviewers need to be concerned about the quality of the work submitted for publication and ensure that only studies which have been designed, conducted and reported in a transparent way, honestly and without any deviation from the truth get to be published. Any such trend or deviation from the truth in data collection, analysis, interpretation and publication is called bias. Bias in research can occur either intentionally or unintentionally. Bias causes false conclusions and is potentially misleading. Therefore, it is immoral and unethical to conduct biased research. Every scientist should thus be aware of all potential sources of bias and undertake all possible actions to reduce or minimize the deviation from the truth. This article describes some basic issues related to bias in research.

  2. Eliminating Bias

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Learn how to eliminate bias from monitoring systems by instituting appropriate installation, operation, and quality assurance procedures. Provides links to download An Operator's Guide to Eliminating Bias in CEM Systems.

  3. Intergroup bias.

    PubMed

    Hewstone, Miles; Rubin, Mark; Willis, Hazel

    2002-01-01

    This chapter reviews the extensive literature on bias in favor of in-groups at the expense of out-groups. We focus on five issues and identify areas for future research: (a) measurement and conceptual issues (especially in-group favoritism vs. out-group derogation, and explicit vs. implicit measures of bias); (b) modern theories of bias highlighting motivational explanations (social identity, optimal distinctiveness, uncertainty reduction, social dominance, terror management); (c) key moderators of bias, especially those that exacerbate bias (identification, group size, status and power, threat, positive-negative asymmetry, personality and individual differences); (d) reduction of bias (individual vs. intergroup approaches, especially models of social categorization); and (e) the link between intergroup bias and more corrosive forms of social hostility.

  4. Invited commentary: Can changes in the distributions of and associations between education and income bias estimates of temporal trends in health disparities?

    PubMed

    Talih, Makram

    2013-05-01

    Chen et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2013;177(9):870-881) develop a simulation study for comparing various measures of socioeconomic health disparities when bias can arise from temporal changes in the bivariate distribution of education and income. In this commentary, I argue that, in relation to health, the "meaning" of education cannot be reduced to its socioeconomic value; improved health literacy, for instance, can result in important health benefits. Further, I suggest that unless there is a substantial prior understanding of the data-generating mechanism, directed acyclic graph models should be avoided because causal relationships cannot be inferred from regression. An alternative is to resort to conditional independence graphs, which use only undirected edges. Finally, although the slope index of inequality can, in some specific cases, be seen to reduce bias in temporal comparisons of socioeconomic health disparities, it was not designed for causal inference. The slope index of inequality simply describes the average change in the proportion in poor health when the population is ordered by socioeconomic status.

  5. Contributions to the mammalogy of Chile

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pine, Ronald H.; Miller, Sterling D.; Schamberger, Mel L.

    1979-01-01

    Collections of mammals were made during more than three years of biological investigations in Chile sponsored by the Corporación Nacional Forestal under the aegis of the Peace Corps (Smithsonian Environmental Program). Genera and species hitherto unreported for that country were taken and many useful data concerning distributional patterns of other (mostly little-known) species were gathered. These collections have also proved valuable in better understanding Chilean mammals from a taxonomic point of view and contribute knowledge of the species' natural history. Specimens are to be deposited in the (United States) National Museum of Natural History (USNM) or are to be retained by the Corporación Nacional Forestal, Avda, Bulnes 285, Depto. 401, Santiago. Numbers provided below are field numbers. A final division of specimens between the two institutions has not yet been made. A number of specimens reported here were not taken by Peace Corps personnel but have been obtained by the National Museum of Natural History from other sources. Specimens in the Field Museum of Natural History (FMNH) were used in making comparisons. Some of Fulk's (GWF) specimens are at Texas Tech University. Other are at the Servicio Agricola y Ganadero in Santiago (as are specimens of some introduced species taken by Schamberger). Reise's (DF) are at the Universidad de Chile-Concepción and in his personal collection.

  6. Journal bias or author bias?

    PubMed

    Harris, Ian

    2016-01-01

    I read with interest the comment by Mark Wilson in the Indian Journal of Medical Ethics regarding bias and conflicts of interest in medical journals. Wilson targets one journal (the New England Journal of Medicine: NEJM) and one particular "scandal" to make his point that journals' decisions on publication are biased by commercial conflicts of interest (CoIs). It is interesting that he chooses the NEJM which, by his own admission, had one of the strictest CoI policies and had published widely on this topic. The feeling is that if the NEJM can be guilty, they can all be guilty.

  7. Observational biases for transiting planets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kipping, David M.; Sandford, Emily

    2016-12-01

    Observational biases distort our view of nature, such that the patterns we see within a surveyed population of interest are often unrepresentative of the truth we seek. Transiting planets currently represent the most informative data set on the ensemble properties of exoplanets within 1 au of their star. However, the transit method is inherently biased due to both geometric and detection-driven effects. In this work, we derive the overall observational biases affecting the most basic transit parameters from first principles. By assuming a trapezoidal transit and using conditional probability, we infer the expected distribution of these terms both as a joint distribution and in a marginalized form. These general analytic results provide a baseline against which to compare trends predicted by mission-tailored injection/recovery simulations and offer a simple way to correct for observational bias. Our results explain why the observed population of transiting planets displays a non-uniform impact parameter distribution, with a bias towards near-equatorial geometries. We also find that the geometric bias towards observed planets transiting near periastron is attenuated by the longer durations which occur near apoastron. Finally, we predict that the observational bias with respect to ratio-of-radii is super-quadratic, scaling as (RP/R⋆)5/2, driven by an enhanced geometric transit probability and modestly longer durations.

  8. Berkson's bias, selection bias, and missing data.

    PubMed

    Westreich, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    Although Berkson's bias is widely recognized in the epidemiologic literature, it remains underappreciated as a model of both selection bias and bias due to missing data. Simple causal diagrams and 2 × 2 tables illustrate how Berkson's bias connects to collider bias and selection bias more generally, and show the strong analogies between Berksonian selection bias and bias due to missing data. In some situations, considerations of whether data are missing at random or missing not at random are less important than the causal structure of the missing data process. Although dealing with missing data always relies on strong assumptions about unobserved variables, the intuitions built with simple examples can provide a better understanding of approaches to missing data in real-world situations.

  9. The Likelihood of Injury Among Bias Crimes: An Analysis of General and Specific Bias Types.

    PubMed

    Pezzella, Frank S; Fetzer, Matthew D

    2015-06-18

    In 2009, President Barack Obama signed the Mathew Sheppard and James Byrd Jr. Hate Crimes Protection act and thereby extended the list of previously protected classes of victims from actual or perceived race, color, religion, national origin, disability and sex orientation to gender and gender identity. Over 45 states, the District of Columbia and the federal government now include hate crime statutes that increase penalties when offenders perpetrate hate crimes against protected classes of victims. Penalty enhancement statutes sanction unlawful bias conduct arguably because they result in more severe injuries relative to non-bias conduct. We contend that physical injuries vary by bias type and are not equally injurious. Data on bias crimes was analyzed from the National Incident Based Reporting System. Descriptive patterns of bias crimes were identified by offense type, bias motivation and major and minor injuries. Using Multivariate analyses, we found an escalating trend of violence against racial minorities. Moreover, relative to non-bias crimes, only anti-White and anti-lesbian bias crimes experienced our two prong "animus" criteria of disproportionate prevalence and severity of injury. However, when compared to anti-White bias, anti-Black bias crimes were more prevalent and likely to suffer serious injuries. Implications for hate crime jurisprudence are discussed.

  10. Demonstrating the Correspondence Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Howell, Jennifer L.; Shepperd, James A.

    2011-01-01

    Among the best-known and most robust biases in person perception is the correspondence bias--the tendency for people to make dispositional, rather than situational, attributions for an actor's behavior. The correspondence bias appears in virtually every social psychology textbook and in many introductory psychology textbooks, yet the authors'…

  11. Oaths and hypothetical bias.

    PubMed

    Stevens, T H; Tabatabaei, Maryam; Lass, Daniel

    2013-09-30

    Results from experiments using an oath to eliminate hypothetical bias in stated preference valuation are presented. An oath has several potential advantages relative to other methods for reducing hypothetical bias. Our empirical results suggest that with an oath, mean hypothetical payments are not different from mean actual payments and that when controlling for experimental participants' characteristics using regression analyses, the oath eliminated hypothetical bias.

  12. Recalibrating Academic Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yancey, George

    2012-01-01

    Whether political and/or religious academic bias exists is a question with important ramifications for the educational institutions. Those arguing for the presence of such bias contend that political conservatives and the highly religious in academia are marginalized and face discrimination. The question of academic bias tends to be cast in a…

  13. Queries for Bias Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gordon, Diana F.

    1992-01-01

    Selecting a good bias prior to concept learning can be difficult. Therefore, dynamic bias adjustment is becoming increasingly popular. Current dynamic bias adjustment systems, however, are limited in their ability to identify erroneous assumptions about the relationship between the bias and the target concept. Without proper diagnosis, it is difficult to identify and then remedy faulty assumptions. We have developed an approach that makes these assumptions explicit, actively tests them with queries to an oracle, and adjusts the bias based on the test results.

  14. "Catching" Social Bias.

    PubMed

    Skinner, Allison L; Meltzoff, Andrew N; Olson, Kristina R

    2017-02-01

    Identifying the origins of social bias is critical to devising strategies to overcome prejudice. In two experiments, we tested the hypothesis that young children can catch novel social biases from brief exposure to biased nonverbal signals demonstrated by adults. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. In Experiment 1, we found that children who were exposed to a brief video depicting nonverbal bias in favor of one individual over another subsequently explicitly preferred, and were more prone to behave prosocially toward, the target of positive nonverbal signals. Moreover, in Experiment 2, preschoolers generalized such bias to other individuals. The spread of bias observed in these experiments lays a critical foundation for understanding the way that social biases may develop and spread early in childhood.

  15. Renormalized halo bias

    SciTech Connect

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Green, Daniel; Zaldarriaga, Matias E-mail: dbaumann@damtp.cam.ac.uk E-mail: matiasz@ias.edu

    2014-08-01

    This paper provides a systematic study of renormalization in models of halo biasing. Building on work of McDonald, we show that Eulerian biasing is only consistent with renormalization if non-local terms and higher-derivative contributions are included in the biasing model. We explicitly determine the complete list of required bias parameters for Gaussian initial conditions, up to quartic order in the dark matter density contrast and at leading order in derivatives. At quadratic order, this means including the gravitational tidal tensor, while at cubic order the velocity potential appears as an independent degree of freedom. Our study naturally leads to an effective theory of biasing in which the halo density is written as a double expansion in fluctuations and spatial derivatives. We show that the bias expansion can be organized in terms of Galileon operators which aren't renormalized at leading order in derivatives. Finally, we discuss how the renormalized bias parameters impact the statistics of halos.

  16. Bias in clinical chemistry.

    PubMed

    Theodorsson, Elvar; Magnusson, Bertil; Leito, Ivo

    2014-01-01

    Clinical chemistry uses automated measurement techniques and medical knowledge in the interest of patients and healthy subjects. Automation has reduced repeatability and day-to-day variation considerably. Bias has been reduced to a lesser extent by reference measurement systems. It is vital to minimize clinically important bias, in particular bias within conglomerates of laboratories that measure samples from the same patients. Small and variable bias components will over time show random error properties and conventional random-error based methods for calculating measurement uncertainty can then be applied. The present overview of bias presents the general principles of error and uncertainty concepts, terminology and analysis, and suggests methods to minimize bias and measurement uncertainty in the interest of healthcare.

  17. Interpretation biases in paranoia.

    PubMed

    Savulich, George; Freeman, Daniel; Shergill, Sukhi; Yiend, Jenny

    2015-01-01

    Information in the environment is frequently ambiguous in meaning. Emotional ambiguity, such as the stare of a stranger, or the scream of a child, encompasses possible good or bad emotional consequences. Those with elevated vulnerability to affective disorders tend to interpret such material more negatively than those without, a phenomenon known as "negative interpretation bias." In this study we examined the relationship between vulnerability to psychosis, measured by trait paranoia, and interpretation bias. One set of material permitted broadly positive/negative (valenced) interpretations, while another allowed more or less paranoid interpretations, allowing us to also investigate the content specificity of interpretation biases associated with paranoia. Regression analyses (n=70) revealed that trait paranoia, trait anxiety, and cognitive inflexibility predicted paranoid interpretation bias, whereas trait anxiety and cognitive inflexibility predicted negative interpretation bias. In a group comparison those with high levels of trait paranoia were negatively biased in their interpretations of ambiguous information relative to those with low trait paranoia, and this effect was most pronounced for material directly related to paranoid concerns. Together these data suggest that a negative interpretation bias occurs in those with elevated vulnerability to paranoia, and that this bias may be strongest for material matching paranoid beliefs. We conclude that content-specific biases may be important in the cause and maintenance of paranoid symptoms.

  18. The Bias Fallacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Linvill, Darren L.

    2013-01-01

    Do those who complain about liberal bias in higher education have any actionable point at all? Critics of the politicization of higher education claim that political partisanship in the classroom is pervasive and that it affects student learning. Although the existence of such partisanship has not been empirically proven, allegations of bias are…

  19. Biased predecision processing.

    PubMed

    Brownstein, Aaron L

    2003-07-01

    Decision makers conduct biased predecision processing when they restructure their mental representation of the decision environment to favor one alternative before making their choice. The question of whether biased predecision processing occurs has been controversial since L. Festinger (1957) maintained that it does not occur. The author reviews relevant research in sections on theories of cognitive dissonance, decision conflict, choice certainty, action control, action phases, dominance structuring, differentiation and consolidation, constructive processing, motivated reasoning, and groupthink. Some studies did not find evidence of biased predecision processing, but many did. In the Discussion section, the moderators are summarized and used to assess the theories.

  20. Estimating Bias Error Distributions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Tian-Shu; Finley, Tom D.

    2001-01-01

    This paper formulates the general methodology for estimating the bias error distribution of a device in a measuring domain from less accurate measurements when a minimal number of standard values (typically two values) are available. A new perspective is that the bias error distribution can be found as a solution of an intrinsic functional equation in a domain. Based on this theory, the scaling- and translation-based methods for determining the bias error distribution arc developed. These methods are virtually applicable to any device as long as the bias error distribution of the device can be sufficiently described by a power series (a polynomial) or a Fourier series in a domain. These methods have been validated through computational simulations and laboratory calibration experiments for a number of different devices.

  1. Introduction to Unconscious Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmelz, Joan T.

    2010-05-01

    We all have biases, and we are (for the most part) unaware of them. In general, men and women BOTH unconsciously devalue the contributions of women. This can have a detrimental effect on grant proposals, job applications, and performance reviews. Sociology is way ahead of astronomy in these studies. When evaluating identical application packages, male and female University psychology professors preferred 2:1 to hire "Brian” over "Karen” as an assistant professor. When evaluating a more experienced record (at the point of promotion to tenure), reservations were expressed four times more often when the name was female. This unconscious bias has a repeated negative effect on Karen's career. This talk will introduce the concept of unconscious bias and also give recommendations on how to address it using an example for a faculty search committee. The process of eliminating unconscious bias begins with awareness, then moves to policy and practice, and ends with accountability.

  2. Increasingly minimal bias routing

    DOEpatents

    Bataineh, Abdulla; Court, Thomas; Roweth, Duncan

    2017-02-21

    A system and algorithm configured to generate diversity at the traffic source so that packets are uniformly distributed over all of the available paths, but to increase the likelihood of taking a minimal path with each hop the packet takes. This is achieved by configuring routing biases so as to prefer non-minimal paths at the injection point, but increasingly prefer minimal paths as the packet proceeds, referred to herein as Increasing Minimal Bias (IMB).

  3. Support for Society for Marine Mammalogy 2015 Biennial Conference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-30

    Environmental Laboratory, NOAA) on Climate Change • Drs. Beth Shapiro (University of California Santa Cruz) and Karina Acevedo-Whitehouse (Autonomous...Marcia McNutt – Editor in Chief, Science • David Malakoff – editor, Science • Ken Weiss, freelance Pulitzer prize winning journalist IMPACT

  4. Instructional Time Trends. Education Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Julie Rowland

    2015-01-01

    For more than 30 years, Education Commission of the States has tracked instructional time and frequently receives requests for information about policies and trends. In this Education Trends report, Education Commission of the States addresses some of the more frequent questions, including the impact of instructional time on achievement, variation…

  5. Characteristics of plasma grid bias in large-scaled negative ion source

    SciTech Connect

    Kisaki, M.; Tsumori, K.; Ikeda, K.; Nakano, H.; Osakabe, M.; Nagaoka, K.; Takeiri, Y.; Kaneko, O.

    2014-02-15

    The electron density was measured at various bias voltages to understand how the plasma grid bias affects the electron near the plasma grid in large-scaled negative ion sources. It was found that the response of the electron to the bias voltage changes depending on negative ion production processes. The electron density remarkably decreases with increasing the bias voltage in the pure-volume plasma. On the other hand, the electron density depends on the bias voltage weakly in the Cs-seeded plasma. In addition, it was observed that the response of the co-extracted electron current to the bias voltage has similar trend to that of the electron density.

  6. Program Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moss, Jeffrey W.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Articles by Moss, Van Huss, Raynor, Lynch, and Sullivan discuss the trends in all areas of vocational education. Includes information on how new technologies, life-styles, and job demands have changed or should change vocational education. (JOW)

  7. Distinguishing Selection Bias and Confounding Bias in Comparative Effectiveness Research.

    PubMed

    Haneuse, Sebastien

    2016-04-01

    Comparative effectiveness research (CER) aims to provide patients and physicians with evidence-based guidance on treatment decisions. As researchers conduct CER they face myriad challenges. Although inadequate control of confounding is the most-often cited source of potential bias, selection bias that arises when patients are differentially excluded from analyses is a distinct phenomenon with distinct consequences: confounding bias compromises internal validity, whereas selection bias compromises external validity. Despite this distinction, however, the label "treatment-selection bias" is being used in the CER literature to denote the phenomenon of confounding bias. Motivated by an ongoing study of treatment choice for depression on weight change over time, this paper formally distinguishes selection and confounding bias in CER. By formally distinguishing selection and confounding bias, this paper clarifies important scientific, design, and analysis issues relevant to ensuring validity. First is that the 2 types of biases may arise simultaneously in any given study; even if confounding bias is completely controlled, a study may nevertheless suffer from selection bias so that the results are not generalizable to the patient population of interest. Second is that the statistical methods used to mitigate the 2 biases are themselves distinct; methods developed to control one type of bias should not be expected to address the other. Finally, the control of selection and confounding bias will often require distinct covariate information. Consequently, as researchers plan future studies of comparative effectiveness, care must be taken to ensure that all data elements relevant to both confounding and selection bias are collected.

  8. Reassessing biases and other uncertainties in sea surface temperature observations measured in situ since 1850: 2. Biases and homogenization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kennedy, J. J.; Rayner, N. A.; Smith, R. O.; Parker, D. E.; Saunby, M.

    2011-07-01

    Changes in instrumentation and data availability have caused time-varying biases in estimates of global and regional average sea surface temperature. The size of the biases arising from these changes are estimated and their uncertainties evaluated. The estimated biases and their associated uncertainties are largest during the period immediately following the Second World War, reflecting the rapid and incompletely documented changes in shipping and data availability at the time. Adjustments have been applied to reduce these effects in gridded data sets of sea surface temperature and the results are presented as a set of interchangeable realizations. Uncertainties of estimated trends in global and regional average sea surface temperature due to bias adjustments since the Second World War are found to be larger than uncertainties arising from the choice of analysis technique, indicating that this is an important source of uncertainty in analyses of historical sea surface temperatures. Despite this, trends over the twentieth century remain qualitatively consistent.

  9. Sex Bias in Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zalk, Sue Rosenberg; And Others

    This study investigated children's sex biased attitudes as a function of the sex, age, and race of the child as well as a geographical-SES factor. Two attitudes were measured on a 55-item questionnaire: Sex Pride (attributing positive characteristics to a child of the same sex) and Sex Prejudice (attributing negative characteristics to a child of…

  10. A significant bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eades, Alwyn

    2013-09-01

    While I do not wish to belittle the unfortunate conclusions that may be drawn from your news article "Gender bias judges research by women more critically" (May p12), I do want to comment on the way the article is presented.

  11. Own Variety Bias

    PubMed Central

    García, Andrea Ariza

    2015-01-01

    In a language identification task, native Belgian French and native Swiss French speakers identified French from France as their own variety. However, Canadian French was not subject to this bias. Canadian and French listeners didn’t claim a different variety as their own. PMID:27648211

  12. Environmental Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council on Environmental Quality, Washington, DC.

    This document consists of data which highlight trends in all sectors relevant to environmental policy. These data are presented in the form of charts and maps contained in 13 sections under the following headings: people and the land; critical areas (wetlands, wild areas, parks, historic places, and risk zones); human settlements; transportation;…

  13. Killer whales and marine mammal trends in the North Pacific - A re-examination of evidence for sequential megafauna collapse and the prey-switching hypothesis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wade, P.R.; Burkanov, V.N.; Dahlheim, M.E.; Friday, N.A.; Fritz, L.W.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mizroch, S.A.; Muto, M.M.; Rice, D.W.; Barrett-Lennard, L. G.; Black, N.A.; Burdin, A.M.; Calambokidis, J.; Cerchio, S.; Ford, J.K.B.; Jacobsen, J.K.; Matkin, C.O.; Matkin, D.R.; Mehta, A.V.; Small, R.J.; Straley, J.M.; McCluskey, S.M.; VanBlaricom, G.R.; Clapham, P.J.

    2007-01-01

    Springer et al. (2003) contend that sequential declines occurred in North Pacific populations of harbor and fur seals, Steller sea lions, and sea otters. They hypothesize that these were due to increased predation by killer whales, when industrial whaling's removal of large whales as a supposed primary food source precipitated a prey switch. Using a regional approach, we reexamined whale catch data, killer whale predation observations, and the current biomass and trends of potential prey, and found little support for the prey-switching hypothesis. Large whale biomass in the Bering Sea did not decline as much as suggested by Springer et al., and much of the reduction occurred 50-100 yr ago, well before the declines of pinnipeds and sea otters began; thus, the need to switch prey starting in the 1970s is doubtful. With the sole exception that the sea otter decline followed the decline of pinnipeds, the reported declines were not in fact sequential. Given this, it is unlikely that a sequential megafaunal collapse from whales to sea otters occurred. The spatial and temporal patterns of pinniped and sea otter population trends are more complex than Springer et al. suggest, and are often inconsistent with their hypothesis. Populations remained stable or increased in many areas, despite extensive historical whaling and high killer whale abundance. Furthermore, observed killer whale predation has largely involved pinnipeds and small cetaceans; there is little evidence that large whales were ever a major prey item in high latitudes. Small cetaceans (ignored by Springer et al.) were likely abundant throughout the period. Overall, we suggest that the Springer et al. hypothesis represents a misleading and simplistic view of events and trophic relationships within this complex marine ecosystem. ?? 2007 by the Society for Marine Mammalogy.

  14. Global trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Megie, G.; Chanin, M.-L.; Ehhalt, D.; Fraser, P.; Frederick, J. F.; Gille, J. C.; Mccormick, M. P.; Schoebert, M.; Bishop, L.; Bojkov, R. D.

    1990-01-01

    Measuring trends in ozone, and most other geophysical variables, requires that a small systematic change with time be determined from signals that have large periodic and aperiodic variations. Their time scales range from the day-to-day changes due to atmospheric motions through seasonal and annual variations to 11 year cycles resulting from changes in the sun UV output. Because of the magnitude of all of these variations is not well known and highly variable, it is necessary to measure over more than one period of the variations to remove their effects. This means that at least 2 or more times the 11 year sunspot cycle. Thus, the first requirement is for a long term data record. The second related requirement is that the record be consistent. A third requirement is for reasonable global sampling, to ensure that the effects are representative of the entire Earth. The various observational methods relevant to trend detection are reviewed to characterize their quality and time and space coverage. Available data are then examined for long term trends or recent changes in ozone total content and vertical distribution, as well as related parameters such as stratospheric temperature, source gases and aerosols.

  15. Evaluation of trends in wheat yield models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferguson, M. C.

    1982-01-01

    Trend terms in models for wheat yield in the U.S. Great Plains for the years 1932 to 1976 are evaluated. The subset of meteorological variables yielding the largest adjusted R(2) is selected using the method of leaps and bounds. Latent root regression is used to eliminate multicollinearities, and generalized ridge regression is used to introduce bias to provide stability in the data matrix. The regression model used provides for two trends in each of two models: a dependent model in which the trend line is piece-wise continuous, and an independent model in which the trend line is discontinuous at the year of the slope change. It was found that the trend lines best describing the wheat yields consisted of combinations of increasing, decreasing, and constant trend: four combinations for the dependent model and seven for the independent model.

  16. Effect of switched-bias bakes on the postirradiation electrical response of MOS devices

    SciTech Connect

    Fleetwood, D.M.; Shaneyfelt, M.R.; Riewe, L.C.; Winokur, P.S.

    1993-01-01

    Qualitatively different trends in postirradiation electrical response are observed in MOS devices after very long (up to 2.75-year) switched-bias bakes. A revised defect nomenclature is introduced, and implications for MOS defect models are discussed.

  17. Effect of switched-bias bakes on the postirradiation electrical response of MOS devices

    SciTech Connect

    Fleetwood, D.M.; Shaneyfelt, M.R.; Riewe, L.C.; Winokur, P.S.

    1993-03-01

    Qualitatively different trends in postirradiation electrical response are observed in MOS devices after very long (up to 2.75-year) switched-bias bakes. A revised defect nomenclature is introduced, and implications for MOS defect models are discussed.

  18. Biasing GPCR signaling from inside.

    PubMed

    Shukla, Arun K

    2014-01-28

    The discovery of "functional selectivity" or "biased signaling" through G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs) has redefined the classical GPCR signaling paradigm. Moreover, the therapeutic potential of biased signaling by and biased ligands for GPCRs is changing the landscape of GPCR drug discovery. The concept of biased signaling has primarily been developed and discussed in the context of ligands that bind to the extracellular regions of GPCRs. However, two recent reports demonstrate that it is also possible to bias GPCR signaling from inside the cell by targeting intracellular regions of these receptors. These findings present a novel handle for delineating the functional outcomes of biased signaling by GPCRs. Moreover, these approaches also uncover a previously unexplored framework for biasing GPCR signaling for drug discovery.

  19. Bias modification training can alter approach bias and chocolate consumption.

    PubMed

    Schumacher, Sophie E; Kemps, Eva; Tiggemann, Marika

    2016-01-01

    Recent evidence has demonstrated that bias modification training has potential to reduce cognitive biases for attractive targets and affect health behaviours. The present study investigated whether cognitive bias modification training could be applied to reduce approach bias for chocolate and affect subsequent chocolate consumption. A sample of 120 women (18-27 years) were randomly assigned to an approach-chocolate condition or avoid-chocolate condition, in which they were trained to approach or avoid pictorial chocolate stimuli, respectively. Training had the predicted effect on approach bias, such that participants trained to approach chocolate demonstrated an increased approach bias to chocolate stimuli whereas participants trained to avoid such stimuli showed a reduced bias. Further, participants trained to avoid chocolate ate significantly less of a chocolate muffin in a subsequent taste test than participants trained to approach chocolate. Theoretically, results provide support for the dual process model's conceptualisation of consumption as being driven by implicit processes such as approach bias. In practice, approach bias modification may be a useful component of interventions designed to curb the consumption of unhealthy foods.

  20. Fertilizer trends

    SciTech Connect

    Donaldson, R.

    1992-01-01

    This fourteenth edition of Fertilizer Trends presents historical fertilizer market data to aid industry, government, and financial market analysis and planners in their study of fertilizer and agricultural market cycles, market planning, and investment decisions. A 27-year summary of the US fertilizer market is presented in graphic and tabular form. Production, use, and trade data are included for each plant nutrient and sulfur. Canadian statistics have been included because of the important role of the Canadian fertilizer industry in the US fertilizer market. World production and consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash are included because of the strong influence of world markets on the domestic market. Planted acreage and plant nutrient application rates for the major crops have been included to illustrate their effect on fertilizer use. Retail prices of the leading US fertilizer materials also are given.

  1. Fertilizer trends

    SciTech Connect

    Donaldson, R.

    1992-12-31

    This fourteenth edition of Fertilizer Trends presents historical fertilizer market data to aid industry, government, and financial market analysis and planners in their study of fertilizer and agricultural market cycles, market planning, and investment decisions. A 27-year summary of the US fertilizer market is presented in graphic and tabular form. Production, use, and trade data are included for each plant nutrient and sulfur. Canadian statistics have been included because of the important role of the Canadian fertilizer industry in the US fertilizer market. World production and consumption of nitrogen, phosphate, and potash are included because of the strong influence of world markets on the domestic market. Planted acreage and plant nutrient application rates for the major crops have been included to illustrate their effect on fertilizer use. Retail prices of the leading US fertilizer materials also are given.

  2. Outcome predictability biases learning.

    PubMed

    Griffiths, Oren; Mitchell, Chris J; Bethmont, Anna; Lovibond, Peter F

    2015-01-01

    Much of contemporary associative learning research is focused on understanding how and when the associative history of cues affects later learning about those cues. Very little work has investigated the effects of the associative history of outcomes on human learning. Three experiments extended the "learned irrelevance" paradigm from the animal conditioning literature to examine the influence of an outcome's prior predictability on subsequent learning of relationships between cues and that outcome. All 3 experiments found evidence for the idea that learning is biased by the prior predictability of the outcome. Previously predictable outcomes were readily associated with novel predictive cues, whereas previously unpredictable outcomes were more readily associated with novel nonpredictive cues. This finding highlights the importance of considering the associative history of outcomes, as well as cues, when interpreting multistage designs. Associative and cognitive explanations of this certainty matching effect are discussed.

  3. The intentionality bias and schizotypy.

    PubMed

    Moore, J W; Pope, A

    2014-01-01

    The "intentionality bias" refers to our automatic tendency to judge other people's actions to be intentional. In this experiment we extended research on this effect in two key ways. First, we developed a novel nonlinguistic task for assessing the intentionality bias. This task used video stimuli of ambiguous movements. Second, we investigated the relationship between the strength of this bias and schizotypy (schizophrenia-like symptoms in healthy individuals). Our results showed that the intentionality bias was replicated for the video stimuli and also that this bias is stronger in those individuals scoring higher on the schizotypy rating scales. Overall these findings lend further support for the existence of the intentionality bias. We also discuss the possible relevance of these findings for our understanding of certain symptoms of schizophrenic illness.

  4. Social-Cognitive Bias and Depressive Symptoms in Outpatients with Bipolar Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Lahera, Guillermo; Benito, Adolfo; González-Barroso, Ana; Guardiola, Rocío; Herrera, Sara; Muchada, Beatriz; Cojedor, Noelia; Fernández-Liria, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    A deficit of social cognition in bipolar disorder has been shown, even when patients are stable. This study compares the attribution of intentions (social-cognitive bias) in a group of 37 outpatients with bipolar disorder with 32 matched control subjects. Bipolar patients scored significantly higher in the Ambiguous Intentions Hostility Questionnaire, showing an angry and intentionality bias (P = .001, P = .02). Differences in blame scale and hostility bias did not reach statistical significance, but a trend was found (P = .06). Bipolar patients with depressive symptoms presented a higher score in the angry bias scale (P = .03) and aggressivity bias scale (P = .004). The global functioning (GAF) correlates significantly with intentionality (P = .005), angry (P = .027), and aggressivity (P = .020) biases. Bipolar patients show a social-cognitive bias that may play a role in their functional outcome. PMID:22312485

  5. Size Bias in Galaxy Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, Fabian; Rozo, Eduardo; Dodelson, Scott; Hui, Lam; Sheldon, Erin

    2009-07-01

    Only certain galaxies are included in surveys: those bright and large enough to be detectable as extended sources. Because gravitational lensing can make galaxies appear both brighter and larger, the presence of foreground inhomogeneities can scatter galaxies across not only magnitude cuts but also size cuts, changing the statistical properties of the resulting catalog. Here we explore this size bias and how it combines with magnification bias to affect galaxy statistics. We demonstrate that photometric galaxy samples from current and upcoming surveys can be even more affected by size bias than by magnification bias.

  6. Summary of relationships between exchangeability, biasing paths and bias.

    PubMed

    Flanders, William Dana; Eldridge, Ronald Curtis

    2015-10-01

    Definitions and conceptualizations of confounding and selection bias have evolved over the past several decades. An important advance occurred with development of the concept of exchangeability. For example, if exchangeability holds, risks of disease in an unexposed group can be compared with risks in an exposed group to estimate causal effects. Another advance occurred with the use of causal graphs to summarize causal relationships and facilitate identification of causal patterns that likely indicate bias, including confounding and selection bias. While closely related, exchangeability is defined in the counterfactual-model framework and confounding paths in the causal-graph framework. Moreover, the precise relationships between these concepts have not been fully described. Here, we summarize definitions and current views of these concepts. We show how bias, exchangeability and biasing paths interrelate and provide justification for key results. For example, we show that absence of a biasing path implies exchangeability but that the reverse implication need not hold without an additional assumption, such as faithfulness. The close links shown are expected. However confounding, selection bias and exchangeability are basic concepts, so comprehensive summarization and definitive demonstration of links between them is important. Thus, this work facilitates and adds to our understanding of these important biases.

  7. Sequential biases in accumulating evidence

    PubMed Central

    Huggins, Richard; Dogo, Samson Henry

    2015-01-01

    Whilst it is common in clinical trials to use the results of tests at one phase to decide whether to continue to the next phase and to subsequently design the next phase, we show that this can lead to biased results in evidence synthesis. Two new kinds of bias associated with accumulating evidence, termed ‘sequential decision bias’ and ‘sequential design bias’, are identified. Both kinds of bias are the result of making decisions on the usefulness of a new study, or its design, based on the previous studies. Sequential decision bias is determined by the correlation between the value of the current estimated effect and the probability of conducting an additional study. Sequential design bias arises from using the estimated value instead of the clinically relevant value of an effect in sample size calculations. We considered both the fixed‐effect and the random‐effects models of meta‐analysis and demonstrated analytically and by simulations that in both settings the problems due to sequential biases are apparent. According to our simulations, the sequential biases increase with increased heterogeneity. Minimisation of sequential biases arises as a new and important research area necessary for successful evidence‐based approaches to the development of science. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:26626562

  8. Classifying sex biased congenital anomalies

    SciTech Connect

    Lubinsky, M.S.

    1997-03-31

    The reasons for sex biases in congenital anomalies that arise before structural or hormonal dimorphisms are established has long been unclear. A review of such disorders shows that patterning and tissue anomalies are female biased, and structural findings are more common in males. This suggests different gender dependent susceptibilities to developmental disturbances, with female vulnerabilities focused on early blastogenesis/determination, while males are more likely to involve later organogenesis/morphogenesis. A dual origin for some anomalies explains paradoxical reductions of sex biases with greater severity (i.e., multiple rather than single malformations), presumably as more severe events increase the involvement of an otherwise minor process with opposite biases to those of the primary mechanism. The cause for these sex differences is unknown, but early dimorphisms, such as differences in growth or presence of H-Y antigen, may be responsible. This model provides a useful rationale for understanding and classifying sex-biased congenital anomalies. 42 refs., 7 tabs.

  9. Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Larson, Steve

    2012-01-01

    Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

  10. Linear and non-linear bias: predictions versus measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

    2017-02-01

    We study the linear and non-linear bias parameters which determine the mapping between the distributions of galaxies and the full matter density fields, comparing different measurements and predictions. Associating galaxies with dark matter haloes in the Marenostrum Institut de Ciències de l'Espai (MICE) Grand Challenge N-body simulation, we directly measure the bias parameters by comparing the smoothed density fluctuations of haloes and matter in the same region at different positions as a function of smoothing scale. Alternatively, we measure the bias parameters by matching the probability distributions of halo and matter density fluctuations, which can be applied to observations. These direct bias measurements are compared to corresponding measurements from two-point and different third-order correlations, as well as predictions from the peak-background model, which we presented in previous papers using the same data. We find an overall variation of the linear bias measurements and predictions of ∼5 per cent with respect to results from two-point correlations for different halo samples with masses between ∼1012and1015 h-1 M⊙ at the redshifts z = 0.0 and 0.5. Variations between the second- and third-order bias parameters from the different methods show larger variations, but with consistent trends in mass and redshift. The various bias measurements reveal a tight relation between the linear and the quadratic bias parameters, which is consistent with results from the literature based on simulations with different cosmologies. Such a universal relation might improve constraints on cosmological models, derived from second-order clustering statistics at small scales or higher order clustering statistics.

  11. Automated Confocal Microscope Bias Correction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorval, Thierry; Genovesio, Auguste

    2006-10-01

    Illumination artifacts systematically occur in 2D cross-section confocal microscopy imaging . These bias can strongly corrupt an higher level image processing such as a segmentation, a fluorescence evaluation or even a pattern extraction/recognition. This paper presents a new fully automated bias correction methodology based on large image database preprocessing. This method is very appropriate to the High Content Screening (HCS), method dedicated to drugs discovery. Our method assumes that the amount of pictures available is large enough to allow a reliable statistical computation of an average bias image. A relevant segmentation evaluation protocol and experimental results validate our correction algorithm by outperforming object extraction on non corrupted images.

  12. Parenting practices, interpretive biases, and anxiety in Latino children.

    PubMed

    Varela, R Enrique; Niditch, Laura A; Hensley-Maloney, Lauren; Moore, Kathryn W; Creveling, C Christiane

    2013-03-01

    A number of factors are believed to confer risk for anxiety development in children; however, cultural variation of purported risk factors remains unclear. We examined relations between controlling and rejecting parenting styles, parental modeling of anxious behaviors, child interpretive biases, and child anxiety in a mixed clinically anxious (n=27) and non-clinical (n=20) sample of Latino children and at least one of their parents. Families completed discussion-based tasks and questionnaires in a lab setting. Results indicated that child anxiety was: linked with parental control and child interpretative biases, associated with parental modeling of anxious behaviors at a trend level, and not associated with low parental acceptance. Findings that controlling parenting and child interpretive biases were associated with anxiety extend current theories of anxiety development to the Latino population. We speculate that strong family ties may buffer Latino children from detrimental effects of perceived low parental acceptance.

  13. Perspectives of voltage control for magnetic exchange bias in multiferroic heterostructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Q.; Zhou, Z.; Sun, N. X.; Liu, M.

    2017-04-01

    Exchange bias, as an internal magnetic bias induced by a ferromagnetic-antiferromagnetic exchange coupling, is extremely important in many magnetic applications such as memories, sensors and other devices. Voltage control of exchange bias in multiferroics provides an energy-efficient way to achieve a rapidly 180° deterministic switching of magnetization, which has been considered as a key challenge in realizing next generation of fast, compact and ultra-low power magnetoelectric memories and sensors. Additionally, exchange bias can enhance dynamic magnetoelectric coupling strength in an external-field-free manner. In this paper, we provide a perspective on voltage control of exchange bias in different multiferroic heterostructures. Brief mechanization and related experiments are discussed as well as future trend and challenges that can be overcome by electrically tuning of exchange bias in state-of-the-art magnetoelectric devices.

  14. Trends in Southern Ocean Eddy Kinetic Energy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-04-01

    A recent study by Hogg et al. (JGR, 2015) has demonstrated a 20-year trend in eddy kinetic energy (EKE) computed from satellite altimetry data. However, this estimate is based on an averaging over large spatial areas. In this study, we use the same methods to examine regional EKE trends throughout the Southern Ocean, from 1993-2015. We do find significant positive trends in several areas of the Southern Ocean, mainly in regions with high mean EKE associated with interactions between jets and bathymetry. At the same time, however, there are also regions with significant negative trends. Overall, EKE in the majority of the Southern Ocean has not changed. These results suggest that the estimates of Hogg et al. may have been biased by these regional extremes, and that more work is needed to quantify climatic changes in EKE.

  15. Negativity Bias in Dangerous Drivers

    PubMed Central

    Chai, Jing; Qu, Weina; Sun, Xianghong; Zhang, Kan; Ge, Yan

    2016-01-01

    The behavioral and cognitive characteristics of dangerous drivers differ significantly from those of safe drivers. However, differences in emotional information processing have seldom been investigated. Previous studies have revealed that drivers with higher anger/anxiety trait scores are more likely to be involved in crashes and that individuals with higher anger traits exhibit stronger negativity biases when processing emotions compared with control groups. However, researchers have not explored the relationship between emotional information processing and driving behavior. In this study, we examined the emotional information processing differences between dangerous drivers and safe drivers. Thirty-eight non-professional drivers were divided into two groups according to the penalty points that they had accrued for traffic violations: 15 drivers with 6 or more points were included in the dangerous driver group, and 23 drivers with 3 or fewer points were included in the safe driver group. The emotional Stroop task was used to measure negativity biases, and both behavioral and electroencephalograph data were recorded. The behavioral results revealed stronger negativity biases in the dangerous drivers than in the safe drivers. The bias score was correlated with self-reported dangerous driving behavior. Drivers with strong negativity biases reported having been involved in mores crashes compared with the less-biased drivers. The event-related potentials (ERPs) revealed that the dangerous drivers exhibited reduced P3 components when responding to negative stimuli, suggesting decreased inhibitory control of information that is task-irrelevant but emotionally salient. The influence of negativity bias provides one possible explanation of the effects of individual differences on dangerous driving behavior and traffic crashes. PMID:26765225

  16. Socially biased learning in monkeys.

    PubMed

    Fragaszy, D; Visalberghi, E

    2004-02-01

    We review socially biased learning about food and problem solving in monkeys, relying especially on studies with tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) and callitrichid monkeys. Capuchin monkeys most effectively learn to solve a new problem when they can act jointly with an experienced partner in a socially tolerant setting and when the problem can be solved by direct action on an object or substrate, but they do not learn by imitation. Capuchin monkeys are motivated to eat foods, whether familiar or novel, when they are with others that are eating, regardless of what the others are eating. Thus, social bias in learning about foods is indirect and mediated by facilitation of feeding. In most respects, social biases in learning are similar in capuchins and callitrichids, except that callitrichids provide more specific behavioral cues to others about the availability and palatability of foods. Callitrichids generally are more tolerant toward group members and coordinate their activity in space and time more closely than capuchins do. These characteristics support stronger social biases in learning in callitrichids than in capuchins in some situations. On the other hand, callitrichids' more limited range of manipulative behaviors, greater neophobia, and greater sensitivity to the risk of predation restricts what these monkeys learn in comparison with capuchins. We suggest that socially biased learning is always the collective outcome of interacting physical, social, and individual factors, and that differences across populations and species in social bias in learning reflect variations in all these dimensions. Progress in understanding socially biased learning in nonhuman species will be aided by the development of appropriately detailed models of the richly interconnected processes affecting learning.

  17. Exchange-biased magnetic vortices.

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffmann, A.; Sort, J.; Buchanan, K. S.; Nogues, J.; Inst. Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats; Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona

    2008-07-01

    This paper reviews our work on the interplay between exchange bias due to the coupling of a ferromagnet to an antiferromagnet and the formation of magnetic vortices, which occur due to the patterning of a ferromagnet. Depending on the thermal and magnetic history, a variety of different effects can be observed. Thermal annealing in a saturating magnetic field establishes a spatially homogeneous exchange bias with a uniform unidirectional anisotropy. This results in an angular dependence of the magnetization reversal mode, which can be either via magnetization rotation or vortex nucleation and annihilation. In contrast, thermal annealing in a field smaller than the vortex annihilation field imprints the ferromagnetic vortex configuration in the antiferromagnet with high fidelity resulting in unusual asymmetric hysteresis loops. Furthermore, we discuss how the interfacial nature of the exchange bias can modify the vortex magnetization along the thickness of the ferromagnet.

  18. Heuristic-biased stochastic sampling

    SciTech Connect

    Bresina, J.L.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents a search technique for scheduling problems, called Heuristic-Biased Stochastic Sampling (HBSS). The underlying assumption behind the HBSS approach is that strictly adhering to a search heuristic often does not yield the best solution and, therefore, exploration off the heuristic path can prove fruitful. Within the HBSS approach, the balance between heuristic adherence and exploration can be controlled according to the confidence one has in the heuristic. By varying this balance, encoded as a bias function, the HBSS approach encompasses a family of search algorithms of which greedy search and completely random search are extreme members. We present empirical results from an application of HBSS to the realworld problem of observation scheduling. These results show that with the proper bias function, it can be easy to outperform greedy search.

  19. Measurement Bias Detection through Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barendse, M. T.; Oort, F. J.; Werner, C. S.; Ligtvoet, R.; Schermelleh-Engel, K.

    2012-01-01

    Measurement bias is defined as a violation of measurement invariance, which can be investigated through multigroup factor analysis (MGFA), by testing across-group differences in intercepts (uniform bias) and factor loadings (nonuniform bias). Restricted factor analysis (RFA) can also be used to detect measurement bias. To also enable nonuniform…

  20. Without Bias: A Guidebook for Nondiscriminatory Communication.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pickens, Judy E., Ed.; And Others

    This guidebook discusses ways to eliminate various types of discrimination from business communications. Separately authored chapters discuss eliminating racial and ethnic bias; eliminating sexual bias; achieving communication sensitive about handicaps of disabled persons; eliminating bias from visual media; eliminating bias from meetings,…

  1. The Truth and Bias Model of Judgment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Tessa V.; Kenny, David A.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new model for the general study of how the truth and biases affect human judgment. In the truth and bias model, judgments about the world are pulled by 2 primary forces, the truth force and the bias force, and these 2 forces are interrelated. The truth and bias model differentiates force and value, where the force is the strength of…

  2. Unpacking the Evidence of Gender Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fulmer, Connie L.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate gender bias in pre-service principals using the Gender-Leader Implicit Association Test. Analyses of student-learning narratives revealed how students made sense of gender bias (biased or not-biased) and how each reacted to evidence (surprised or not-surprised). Two implications were: (1) the need for…

  3. Collection Development and the Psychology of Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Brian

    2012-01-01

    The library literature addressing the role of bias in collection development emphasizes a philosophical approach. It is based on the notion that bias can be controlled by the conscious act of believing in certain values and adhering to a code of ethics. It largely ignores the psychological research on bias, which suggests that bias is a more…

  4. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Blanco, Arthur S.; Gerlagh, Reyer; Suh, Sangwon; Barrett, John A.; de Coninck, Heleen; Diaz Morejon, Cristobal Felix; Mathur, Ritu; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Ahenkorah, Alfred Ofosu; Pan, Jiahua; Pathak, Himanshu; Rice, Jake; Richels, Richard G.; Smith, Steven J.; Stern, David; Toth, Ferenc L.; Zhou, Peter

    2014-12-01

    Chapter 5 analyzes the anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends until the present and the main drivers that explain those trends. The chapter uses different perspectives to analyze past GHG-emissions trends, including aggregate emissions flows and per capita emissions, cumulative emissions, sectoral emissions, and territory-based vs. consumption-based emissions. In all cases, global and regional trends are analyzed. Where appropriate, the emission trends are contextualized with long-term historic developments in GHG emissions extending back to 1750.

  5. The Threshold of Embedded M Collider Bias and Confounding Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelcey, Benjamin; Carlisle, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Of particular import to this study, is collider bias originating from stratification on retreatment variables forming an embedded M or bowtie structural design. That is, rather than assume an M structural design which suggests that "X" is a collider but not a confounder, the authors adopt what they consider to be a more reasonable…

  6. Bias correction with Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canter, Martin; Barth, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    With this work, we aim at developping a new method of bias correction using data assimilation. This method is based on the stochastic forcing of a model to correct bias. First, through a preliminary run, we estimate the bias of the model and its possible sources. Then, we establish a forcing term which is directly added inside the model's equations. We create an ensemble of runs and consider the forcing term as a control variable during the assimilation of observations. We then use this analysed forcing term to correct the bias of the model. Since the forcing is added inside the model, it acts as a source term, unlike external forcings such as wind. This procedure has been developed and successfully tested with a twin experiment on a Lorenz 95 model. Indeed, we were able to estimate and recover an artificial bias that had been added into the model. This bias had a spatial structure and was constant through time. The mean and behaviour of the corrected model corresponded to those the reference model. It is currently being applied and tested on the sea ice ocean NEMO LIM model, which is used in the PredAntar project. NEMO LIM is a global and low resolution (2 degrees) coupled model (hydrodynamic model and sea ice model) with long time steps allowing simulations over several decades. Due to its low resolution, the model is subject to bias in area where strong currents are present. We aim at correcting this bias by using perturbed current fields from higher resolution models and randomly generated perturbations. The random perturbations need to be constrained in order to respect the physical properties of the ocean, and not create unwanted phenomena. To construct those random perturbations, we first create a random field with the Diva tool (Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis). Using a cost function, this tool penalizes abrupt variations in the field, while using a custom correlation length. It also decouples disconnected areas based on topography. Then, we filter

  7. Solar array/spacecraft biasing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fitzgerald, D. J.

    1981-01-01

    Biasing techniques and their application to the control of spacecraft potential is discussed. Normally when a spacecraft is operated with ion thrusters, the spacecraft will be 10-20 volts negative of the surrounding plasma. This will affect scientific measurements and will allow ions from the charge-exchange plasma to bombard the spacecraft surfaces with a few tens of volts of energy. This condition may not be tolerable. A proper bias system is described that can bring the spacecraft to or near the potential of the surrounding plasma.

  8. The Electrically Controlled Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harper, Jacob

    Controlling magnetism via voltage in the virtual absence of electric current is the key to reduce power consumption while enhancing processing speed, integration density and functionality in comparison with present-day information technology. Almost all spintronic devices rely on tailored interface magnetism. Controlling magnetism at thin-film interfaces, preferably by purely electrical means, is therefore a key challenge to better spintronics. However, there is no direct interaction between magnetization and electric fields, thus making voltage control of magnetism in general a scientific challenge. The significance of controlled interface magnetism started with the exchange-bias effect. Exchange bias is a coupling phenomenon at magnetic interfaces that manifests itself prominently in the shift of the ferromagnetic hysteresis loop along the magnetic-field axis. Various attempts on controlling exchange bias via voltage utilizing different scientific principles have been intensively studied recently. The majority of present research is emphasizing on various complex oxides. Our approach can be considered as a paradigm shift away from complex oxides. We focus on a magnetoelectric antiferromagnetic simple oxide Cr2O3. From a combination of experimental and theoretical efforts, we show that the (0001) surface of magnetoelectric Cr2O3 has a roughness-insensitive, electrically switchable magnetization. Using a ferromagnetic Pd/Co multilayer deposited on the (0001) surface of a Cr2O3 single crystal, we achieve reversible, room-temperature isothermal switching of the exchange-bias between positive and negative values by reversing the electric field while maintaining a permanent magnetic field. This is a significant scientific breakthrough providing a new route towards potentially revolutionizing information technology. In addition, a second path of electrically controlled exchange bias is introduced by exploiting the piezoelectric property of BaTiO3. An exchange-bias Co

  9. Bias in Dynamic Monte Carlo Alpha Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Sweezy, Jeremy Ed; Nolen, Steven Douglas; Adams, Terry R.; Trahan, Travis John

    2015-02-06

    A 1/N bias in the estimate of the neutron time-constant (commonly denoted as α) has been seen in dynamic neutronic calculations performed with MCATK. In this paper we show that the bias is most likely caused by taking the logarithm of a stochastic quantity. We also investigate the known bias due to the particle population control method used in MCATK. We conclude that this bias due to the particle population control method is negligible compared to other sources of bias.

  10. Combating Anti-Muslim Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shah, Nirvi

    2011-01-01

    America's 2.5 million Muslims make up less than 1% of the U.S. population, according to the Pew Research Center. Many Muslim students face discrimination and some cases have warranted investigation by the U.S. Department of Education's Office of Civil Rights. Muslim groups have reported widespread bias as well. For many Muslim…

  11. Stereotype Formation: Biased by Association

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le Pelley, Mike E.; Reimers, Stian J.; Calvini, Guglielmo; Spears, Russell; Beesley, Tom; Murphy, Robin A.

    2010-01-01

    We propose that biases in attitude and stereotype formation might arise as a result of learned differences in the extent to which social groups have previously been predictive of behavioral or physical properties. Experiments 1 and 2 demonstrate that differences in the experienced predictiveness of groups with respect to evaluatively neutral…

  12. Test Bias and Construct Validity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jensen, Arthur R.

    The several statistical methods described for detecting test bias in terms of various internal features of a person's test performances and the test's construct validity can be applied to any groups in the population. But the evidence regarding groups other than U.S. blacks and whites is either lacking or is still too sketchy to permit any strong…

  13. Response Bias in Hospice Evaluation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hayslip, Bert, Jr.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Analyzed response bias among 34 recipients of care in hospice. Found nonrespondents to have better bereavement prognoses and tended to care for patients who were younger, male, and in program for shorter time. Nonrespondents were in contact with staff less than were respondents. Data are consistent with earlier research showing significant…

  14. Key Words in Instruction. Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Callison, Daniel

    2005-01-01

    Two challenging criteria for judging information involve bias and authority. In both cases, judgments may not be clearly possible. In both cases, there may be degrees or levels of acceptability. For students to gain experience and to demonstrate skills in making judgments, they need opportunities to consider a wide spectrum of resources under a…

  15. Gender Bias in the Courts.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gill, Wanda E.

    The term gender bias was coined by the National Judicial Education Program to Promote Equality for Women and Men in the Courts and is defined as the predisposition or tendency to think about and behave toward people primarily on the basis of their sex rather than their status, professional accomplishments, or aspirations. An effective method for…

  16. Sex Bias in Counseling Materials

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harway, Michele

    1977-01-01

    This article reviews findings of bias in counseling materials and presents results of three original studies. Indications are that textbooks used by practitioners present the sexes in stereotypical fashion, and a greater proportion of college catalog context is devoted to men than to women. (Author)

  17. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    The global mean temperature trend may be biased due to similar technological and economic developments worldwide. In this study we want to present a number of recent results that suggest that the global mean temperature trend might be steeper as generally thought. In the Global Historical Climate Network version 3 (GHCNv3) the global land surface temperature is estimated to have increased by about 0.8°C between 1880 and 2012. In the raw temperature record, the increase is 0.6°C; the 0.2°C difference is due to homogenization adjustments. Given that homogenization can only reduce biases, this 0.2°C stems from a partial correction of bias errors and it seems likely that the real non-climatic trend bias will be larger. Especially in regions with sparser networks, homogenization will not be able to improve the trend much. Thus if the trend bias in these regions is similar to the bias for more dense networks (industrialized countries), one would expect the real bias to be larger. Stations in sparse networks are representative for a larger region and are given more weight in the computation of the global mean temperature. If all stations are given equal weight, the homogenization adjustments of the GHCNv3 dataset are about 0.4°C per century. In the subdaily HadISH dataset one break with mean size 0.12°C is found every 15 years for the period 1973-2013. That would be a trend bias of 0.78°C per century on a station by station basis. Unfortunately, these estimates strongly focus on Western countries having more stations. It is known from the literature that rich countries have a (statistically insignificant) stronger trend in the global datasets. Regional datasets can be better homogenized than global ones, the main reason being that global datasets do not contain all stations known to the weather services. Furthermore, global datasets use automatic homogenization methods and have less or no metadata. Thus while regional data can be biased themselves, comparing them

  18. Trends in Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    School Planning & Management, 2002

    2002-01-01

    Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

  19. Marketing Trends to Watch

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Circle, Alison

    2009-01-01

    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  20. Trends In Satellite Communication

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Poley, William A.; Stevens, Grady H.; Stevenson, Steven M.; Lekan, Jack; Arth, Clifford H.; Hollansworth, James E.; Miller, Edward F.

    1988-01-01

    Report assesses trends in satellite communication from present to year 2010. Examines restrictions imposed by limited spectrum resource and technology needs created by trends. Personal communications, orbiting switchboards, and videophones foreseen.

  1. Gender bias in autoimmunity is influenced by microbiota.

    PubMed

    Yurkovetskiy, Leonid; Burrows, Michael; Khan, Aly A; Graham, Laura; Volchkov, Pavel; Becker, Lev; Antonopoulos, Dionysios; Umesaki, Yoshinori; Chervonsky, Alexander V

    2013-08-22

    Gender bias and the role of sex hormones in autoimmune diseases are well established. In specific pathogen-free nonobese diabetic (NOD) mice, females have 1.3-4.4 times higher incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D). Germ-free (GF) mice lost the gender bias (female-to-male ratio 1.1-1.2). Gut microbiota differed in males and females, a trend reversed by male castration, confirming that androgens influence gut microbiota. Colonization of GF NOD mice with defined microbiota revealed that some, but not all, lineages overrepresented in male mice supported a gender bias in T1D. Although protection of males did not correlate with blood androgen concentration, hormone-supported expansion of selected microbial lineages may work as a positive-feedback mechanism contributing to the sexual dimorphism of autoimmune diseases. Gene-expression analysis suggested pathways involved in protection of males from T1D by microbiota. Our results favor a two-signal model of gender bias, in which hormones and microbes together trigger protective pathways.

  2. Types of Research Bias Encountered in IR.

    PubMed

    Gabr, Ahmed; Kallini, Joseph Ralph; Desai, Kush; Hickey, Ryan; Thornburg, Bartley; Kulik, Laura; Lewandowski, Robert J; Salem, Riad

    2016-04-01

    Bias is a systemic error in studies that leads to inaccurate deductions. Relevant biases in the field of IR and interventional oncology were identified after reviewing articles published in the Journal of Vascular and Interventional Radiology and CardioVascular and Interventional Radiology. Biases cited in these articles were divided into three categories: preinterventional (health care access, participation, referral, and sample biases), periinterventional (contamination, investigator, and operator biases), and postinterventional (guarantee-time, lead time, loss to follow-up, recall, and reporting biases).

  3. Tree demography dominates long-term growth trends inferred from tree rings.

    PubMed

    Brienen, Roel J W; Gloor, Manuel; Ziv, Guy

    2017-02-01

    Understanding responses of forests to increasing CO2 and temperature is an important challenge, but no easy task. Tree rings are increasingly used to study such responses. In a recent study, van der Sleen et al. (2014) Nature Geoscience, 8, 4 used tree rings from 12 tropical tree species and find that despite increases in intrinsic water use efficiency, no growth stimulation is observed. This challenges the idea that increasing CO2 would stimulate growth. Unfortunately, tree ring analysis can be plagued by biases, resulting in spurious growth trends. While their study evaluated several biases, it does not account for all. In particular, one bias may have seriously affected their results. Several of the species have recruitment patterns, which are not uniform, but clustered around one specific year. This results in spurious negative growth trends if growth rates are calculated in fixed size classes, as 'fast-growing' trees reach the sampling diameter earlier compared to slow growers and thus fast growth rates tend to have earlier calendar dates. We assessed the effect of this 'nonuniform age bias' on observed growth trends and find that van der Sleen's conclusions of a lack of growth stimulation do not hold. Growth trends are - at least partially - driven by underlying recruitment or age distributions. Species with more clustered age distributions show more negative growth trends, and simulations to estimate the effect of species' age distributions show growth trends close to those observed. Re-evaluation of the growth data and correction for the bias result in significant positive growth trends of 1-2% per decade for the full period, and 3-7% since 1950. These observations, however, should be taken cautiously as multiple biases affect these trend estimates. In all, our results highlight that tree ring studies of long-term growth trends can be strongly influenced by biases if demographic processes are not carefully accounted for.

  4. Mindfulness reduces the correspondence bias.

    PubMed

    Hopthrow, Tim; Hooper, Nic; Mahmood, Lynsey; Meier, Brian P; Weger, Ulrich

    2017-03-01

    The correspondence bias (CB) refers to the idea that people sometimes give undue weight to dispositional rather than situational factors when explaining behaviours and attitudes. Three experiments examined whether mindfulness, a non-judgmental focus on the present moment, could reduce the CB. Participants engaged in a brief mindfulness exercise (the raisin task), a control task, or an attention to detail task before completing a typical CB measure involving an attitude-attribution paradigm. The results indicated that participants in the mindfulness condition experienced a significant reduction in the CB compared to participants in the control or attention to detail conditions. These results suggest that mindfulness training can play a unique role in reducing social biases related to person perception.

  5. Good practices for quantitative bias analysis.

    PubMed

    Lash, Timothy L; Fox, Matthew P; MacLehose, Richard F; Maldonado, George; McCandless, Lawrence C; Greenland, Sander

    2014-12-01

    Quantitative bias analysis serves several objectives in epidemiological research. First, it provides a quantitative estimate of the direction, magnitude and uncertainty arising from systematic errors. Second, the acts of identifying sources of systematic error, writing down models to quantify them, assigning values to the bias parameters and interpreting the results combat the human tendency towards overconfidence in research results, syntheses and critiques and the inferences that rest upon them. Finally, by suggesting aspects that dominate uncertainty in a particular research result or topic area, bias analysis can guide efficient allocation of sparse research resources. The fundamental methods of bias analyses have been known for decades, and there have been calls for more widespread use for nearly as long. There was a time when some believed that bias analyses were rarely undertaken because the methods were not widely known and because automated computing tools were not readily available to implement the methods. These shortcomings have been largely resolved. We must, therefore, contemplate other barriers to implementation. One possibility is that practitioners avoid the analyses because they lack confidence in the practice of bias analysis. The purpose of this paper is therefore to describe what we view as good practices for applying quantitative bias analysis to epidemiological data, directed towards those familiar with the methods. We focus on answering questions often posed to those of us who advocate incorporation of bias analysis methods into teaching and research. These include the following. When is bias analysis practical and productive? How does one select the biases that ought to be addressed? How does one select a method to model biases? How does one assign values to the parameters of a bias model? How does one present and interpret a bias analysis?. We hope that our guide to good practices for conducting and presenting bias analyses will encourage

  6. Self regulating body bias generator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hass, Kenneth (Inventor)

    2004-01-01

    The back bias voltage on a functional circuit is controlled through a closed loop process. A delay element receives a clock pulse and produces a delay output. The delay element is advantageously constructed of the same materials as the functional circuit so that the aging and degradation of the delay element parallels the degradation of the functional circuit. As the delay element degrades, the transistor switching time increases, increasing the time delay of the delay output. An AND gate compares a clock pulse to an output pulse of the delay element, the AND output forming a control pulse. A duty cycle of the control pulse is determined by the delay time between the clock pulse and the delay element output. The control pulse is received at the input of a charge pump. The charge pump produces a back bias voltage which is then applied to the delay element and to the functional circuit. If the time delay produced by the delay element exceeds the optimal delay, the duty cycle of the control pulse is shortened, and the back bias voltage is lowered, thereby increasing the switching speed of the transistors in the delay element and reducing the time delay. If the throughput of the delay element is too fast, the duty cycle of the control pulse is lengthened, raising the back bias voltage produced by the charge pump. This, in turn, lowers the switching speed of the transistors in both the delay element and the functional circuit. The slower switching speed in the delay element increases time delay. In this manner, the switching speed of the delay element, and of the functional circuit, is maintained at a constant level over the life of the circuit.

  7. Galaxy formation and physical bias

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cen, Renyue; Ostriker, Jeremiah P.

    1992-01-01

    We have supplemented our code, which computes the evolution of the physical state of a representative piece of the universe to include, not only the dynamics of dark matter (with a standard PM code), and the hydrodynamics of the gaseous component (including detailed collisional and radiative processes), but also galaxy formation on a heuristic but plausible basis. If, within a cell the gas is Jeans' unstable, collapsing, and cooling rapidly, it is transformed to galaxy subunits, which are then followed with a collisionless code. After grouping them into galaxies, we estimate the relative distributions of galaxies and dark matter and the relative velocities of galaxies and dark matter. In a large scale CDM run of 80/h Mpc size with 8 x 10 exp 6 cells and dark matter particles, we find that physical bias b is on the 8/h Mpc scale is about 1.6 and increases towards smaller scales, and that velocity bias is about 0.8 on the same scale. The comparable HDM simulation is highly biased with b = 2.7 on the 8/h Mpc scale. Implications of these results are discussed in the light of the COBE observations which provide an accurate normalization for the initial power spectrum. CDM can be ruled out on the basis of too large a predicted small scale velocity dispersion at greater than 95 percent confidence level.

  8. Response bias in plaintiffs' histories.

    PubMed

    Lees-Haley, P R; Williams, C W; Zasler, N D; Marguilies, S; English, L T; Stevens, K B

    1997-11-01

    This study investigated response bias in self-reported history of factors relevant to the assessment of traumatic brain injury, toxic brain injury and related emotional distress. Response bias refers to systematic error in self-report data. A total of 446 subjects (comprising 131 litigating and 315 non-litigating adults from five locations in the United States) completed a symptom questionnaire. Data were obtained from university faculty and students, from patients in clinics specializing in physiatry neurology, and family medicine, and from plaintiffs undergoing forensic neuropsychological evaluations. Comparisons were made for litigant and non litigant ratings of their past and current cognitive and emotional functioning, including life in general, ability to concentrate, memory, depression, anxiety, alcohol, drugs, ability to work or attend school, irritability, headaches, confusion, self-esteem, and fatigue. Although there is no basis for hypothesizing plaintiffs to be healthier than the general population, plaintiffs rated their pre-injury functioning superior to non-plaintiffs. These findings suggest that response biases need to be taken into account by forensic examiners when relying on litigants' self-reports of pre-injury status.

  9. The Nonverbal Transmission of Intergroup Bias: A Model of Bias Contagion with Implications for Social Policy

    PubMed Central

    Weisbuch, Max; Pauker, Kristin

    2013-01-01

    Social and policy interventions over the last half-century have achieved laudable reductions in blatant discrimination. Yet members of devalued social groups continue to face subtle discrimination. In this article, we argue that decades of anti-discrimination interventions have failed to eliminate intergroup bias because such bias is contagious. We present a model of bias contagion in which intergroup bias is subtly communicated through nonverbal behavior. Exposure to such nonverbal bias “infects” observers with intergroup bias. The model we present details two means by which nonverbal bias can be expressed—either as a veridical index of intergroup bias or as a symptom of worry about appearing biased. Exposure to this nonverbal bias can increase perceivers’ own intergroup biases through processes of implicit learning, informational influence, and normative influence. We identify critical moderators that may interfere with these processes and consequently propose several social and educational interventions based on these moderators. PMID:23997812

  10. Gas composition influence on ion energy distribution functions in an industrial ICP reactor with biased cathode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peterson, David; Shannon, Steven; Coumou, David; White, Scott

    2016-09-01

    An industrial ICP reactor consisting of a top planar coil and RF biased lower electrode has been characterized using a hairpin resonator probe and gridded ion energy analyzer to measure electron density in the bulk plasma and ion energy distribution function (IEDF) at the surface of the biased cathode. Argon and oxygen were run at constant total flow with 20mTorr downstream pressure control with varying flow ratios between the two gases ranging from 0% to 100% oxygen content. ICP and bias power were adjusted to maintain constant electron density and sheath bias over this mixing matrix at four different setpoints reflecting high density / high bias, high density / low bias, low density / high bias, and low density / low bias. Although the fundamental parameters governing RF sheath behavior were held constant, several trends in ion energy distribution are observed with respect to gas composition (aside from the obvious influence of ion mass) that show considerable variation in measured IEDF particularly that can be attributed to ion collisions in the sheath as well as gas heating variation due to gas composition.

  11. A new inequality? Privatisation, urban bias, migration and medical tourism.

    PubMed

    Connell, John

    2011-01-01

    Access to health care in developing countries, the main destinations of medical tourists, is notoriously uneven, and often becoming more so. Medical tourism, urban bias and privatisation have combined to exacerbate this trend. This is exemplified in both Thailand and India, where regional areas have been disadvantaged by the migration of health-care workers to hospitals focusing on medical tourism, neo-liberal national financial provision for medical tourism (and related tourism campaigns) and evidence of trickle-down gains is lacking. Medical tourism challenges rather than complements local health care providers, distorts national health care systems, and raises critical national economic, ethical and social questions.

  12. Isotopic biases for actinide-only burnup credit

    SciTech Connect

    Rahimi, M.; Lancaster, D.; Hoeffer, B.; Nichols, M.

    1997-04-01

    The primary purpose of this paper is to present the new methodology for establishing bias and uncertainty associated with isotopic prediction in spent fuel assemblies for burnup credit analysis. The analysis applies to the design of criticality control systems for spent fuel casks. A total of 54 spent fuel samples were modeled and analyzed using the Shielding Analyses Sequence (SAS2H). Multiple regression analysis and a trending test were performed to develop isotopic correction factors for 10 actinide burnup credit isotopes. 5 refs., 1 tab.

  13. Outcome-Reporting Bias in Education Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pigott, Therese D.; Valentine, Jeffrey C.; Polanin, Joshua R.; Williams, Ryan T.; Canada, Dericka D.

    2013-01-01

    Outcome-reporting bias occurs when primary studies do not include information about all outcomes measured in a study. When studies omit findings on important measures, efforts to synthesize the research using systematic review techniques will be biased and interpretations of individual studies will be incomplete. Outcome-reporting bias has been…

  14. Ion Accelerator With Negatively Biased Decelerator Grid

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brophy, John R.

    1994-01-01

    Three-grid ion accelerator in which accelerator grid is biased at negative potential and decelerator grid downstream of accelerator grid biased at smaller negative potential. This grid and bias arrangement reduces frequency of impacts, upon accelerator grid, of charge-exchange ions produced downstream in collisions between accelerated ions and atoms and molecules of background gas. Sputter erosion of accelerator grid reduced.

  15. Using Newspapers to Study Media Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kirman, Joseph M.

    1992-01-01

    Suggests that students can learn to recognize media bias by studying media reports of current events or historical topics. Describes a study unit using media coverage of the second anniversary of the Palestinian uprising against Israel. Discusses lesson objectives, planning, defining bias teaching procedures, and criteria for determining bias. (DK)

  16. Attentional Bias for Exercise-Related Images

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berry, Tanya R.; Spence, John C.; Stolp, Sean M.

    2011-01-01

    This research examined attentional bias toward exercise-related images using a visual probe task. It was hypothesized that more-active participants would display attentional bias toward the exercise-related images. The results showed that men displayed attentional bias for the exercise images. There was a significant interaction of activity level…

  17. Gender Bias: Recent Research and Interventions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    New Jersey Research Bulletin, 1996

    1996-01-01

    This annotated bibliography lists 14 publications about recent research on gender bias and interventions to reduce gender bias in schools. The bibliography is divided into two sections: current research and intervention. The first includes descriptions of studies examining the following topics: gender bias in U.S. schools and its effects;…

  18. Understanding Errors, Biases that Can Affect Journalists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stocking, S. Holly; Gross, Paget H.

    1989-01-01

    Outlines some of the errors and biases in thinking that psychologists have documented in recent years, including the eyewitness fallacy, underutilization of statistics, confirmation bias, misperceptions of risk, sample errors and biases, and misunderstanding of regression. Argues that journalism educators need to bring these to the attention of…

  19. Integrating Implicit Bias into Counselor Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boysen, Guy A.

    2010-01-01

    The author reviews the empirical and theoretical literature on implicit bias as it relates to counselor education. Counselor educators can integrate implicit bias into the concepts of multicultural knowledge, awareness, and skill. Knowledge about implicit bias includes its theoretical explanation, measurement, and impact on counseling. Awareness…

  20. Eliminating bias in satellite retrievals of sea surface temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merchant, Christopher John

    Sea surface temperature (SST) is a critical parameter for climate research, and needs to be measured with an absolute accuracy of ~0.3 K (average over ~100 km scale on a weekly to monthly time scale) and with a long term stability of 0.1 K per decade. These stringent requirements present a formidable challenge to satellite based SST measurement. The most promising satellite radiometer is the ATSR (and successors), but bias and spurious trends have arisen in the ATSR SST retrieval process. Eliminating such retrieval bias is the focus of this thesis. SSTs derived from the ATSR using the prelaunch retrieval scheme are biased by up to -1.5 K by stratospheric aerosol from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo shortly before launch. An "aerosol-robust" retrieval scheme is derived which has no detectable aerosol- related bias. Another bias of up to 0.5 K arising from a deficiency of the radiative transfer model used to develop the prelaunch retrieval scheme is resolved by implementing an updated parameterisation of water vapour continuum absorption. The new SSTs are shown to have an accuracy better than 0.3 K (error in a single retrieval over a -20 km spatial scale) and to be robust to aerosol effects, by a validation exercise against buoys measuring SST in situ. The validation data consist of 620 satellite-buoy coincidences in the tropical Pacific between September 1991 and May 1992, a region and period associated with high loadings of stratospheric aerosol and tropospheric water vapour. This is the first validation exercise to correct for the effects of the difference between bulk SSTs (measured by buoys) and skin SSTs (measured radiometrically). The factor now limiting accuracy is residual cloud contamination. The new retrieval scheme has been adopted for the reprocessing of all archived ATSR data to SST.

  1. NASA trend analysis procedures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1993-01-01

    This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

  2. Estimating the effect of nonresponse bias in a survey of hospital organizations.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Emily F; Hardy, Maryann; Snaith, Beverly

    2013-09-01

    Nonresponse bias in survey research can result in misleading or inaccurate findings and assessment of nonresponse bias is advocated to determine response sample representativeness. Four methods of assessing nonresponse bias (analysis of known characteristics of a population, subsampling of nonresponders, wave analysis, and linear extrapolation) were applied to the results of a postal survey of U.K. hospital organizations. The purpose was to establish whether validated methods for assessing nonresponse bias at the individual level can be successfully applied to an organizational level survey. The aim of the initial survey was to investigate trends in the implementation of radiographer abnormality detection schemes, and a response rate of 63.7% (325/510) was achieved. This study identified conflicting trends in the outcomes of analysis of nonresponse bias between the different methods applied and we were unable to validate the continuum of resistance theory as applied to organizational survey data. Further work is required to ensure established nonresponse bias analysis approaches can be successfully applied to organizational survey data. Until then, it is suggested that a combination of methods should be used to enhance the rigor of survey analysis.

  3. Opinion Dynamics with Confirmation Bias

    PubMed Central

    Allahverdyan, Armen E.; Galstyan, Aram

    2014-01-01

    Background Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical research of this phenomenon has mainly focused on its economic implications possibly missing its potential connections with broader notions of cognitive science. Methodology/Principal Findings We formulate a (non-Bayesian) model for revising subjective probabilistic opinion of a confirmationally-biased agent in the light of a persuasive opinion. The revision rule ensures that the agent does not react to persuasion that is either far from his current opinion or coincides with it. We demonstrate that the model accounts for the basic phenomenology of the social judgment theory, and allows to study various phenomena such as cognitive dissonance and boomerang effect. The model also displays the order of presentation effect–when consecutively exposed to two opinions, the preference is given to the last opinion (recency) or the first opinion (primacy) –and relates recency to confirmation bias. Finally, we study the model in the case of repeated persuasion and analyze its convergence properties. Conclusions The standard Bayesian approach to probabilistic opinion revision is inadequate for describing the observed phenomenology of persuasion process. The simple non-Bayesian model proposed here does agree with this phenomenology and is capable of reproducing a spectrum of effects observed in psychology: primacy-recency phenomenon, boomerang effect and cognitive dissonance. We point out several limitations of the model that should motivate its future development. PMID:25007078

  4. Charge amplifier with bias compensation

    DOEpatents

    Johnson, Gary W.

    2002-01-01

    An ion beam uniformity monitor for very low beam currents using a high-sensitivity charge amplifier with bias compensation. The ion beam monitor is used to assess the uniformity of a raster-scanned ion beam, such as used in an ion implanter, and utilizes four Faraday cups placed in the geometric corners of the target area. Current from each cup is integrated with respect to time, thus measuring accumulated dose, or charge, in Coulombs. By comparing the dose at each corner, a qualitative assessment of ion beam uniformity is made possible. With knowledge of the relative area of the Faraday cups, the ion flux and areal dose can also be obtained.

  5. Challenges in bias correcting climate change simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Ted; Zappa, Giuseppe; Gutierrez, Jose; Widmann, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Richter, Ingo; Soares, Pedro; Mearns, Linda

    2016-04-01

    Biases in climate model simulations - if these are directly used as input for impact models - will introduce further biases in subsequent impact simulations. In response to this issue, so-called bias correction methods have been developed to post-process climate model output. These methods are now widely used and a crucial component in the generation of high resolution climate change projections. Bias correction is conceptually similar to model output statistics, which has been successfully used for several decades in numerical weather prediction. Yet in climate science, some authors outrightly dismiss any form of bias correction. Starting from this seeming contradiction, we highlight differences between the two contexts and infer consequences and limitations for the applicability of bias correction to climate change projections. We first show that cross validation approaches successfully used to evaluate weather forecasts are fundamentally insufficient to evaluate climate change bias correction. We further demonstrate that different types of model mismatches with observations require different solutions, and some may not sensibly be mitigated. In particular we consider the influence of large-scale circulation biases, biases in the persistence of weather regimes, and regional biases caused by an insufficient representation of the flow-topography interaction. We conclude with a list of recommendations and suggestions for future research to reduce, to post-process, and to cope with climate model biases.

  6. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-11

    marketing , politics, and economics. In this three-year project, we monitor and analyze the trending topics in different online communities and provide a... marketing , politics, and economics. In this three-year project, we monitor and analyze the trending topics in different online communities and provide a...Awareness and utilization of trending topics plays a crucial role in various fields, including marketing , politics, and economics. In this three-year

  7. Numeracy and framing bias in epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Choi, Hyunmi; Wong, John B; Mendiratta, Anil; Heiman, Gary A; Hamberger, Marla J

    2011-01-01

    Patients with epilepsy are frequently confronted with complex treatment decisions. Communicating treatment risks is often difficult because patients may have difficulty with basic statistical concepts (i.e., low numeracy) or might misconceive the statistical information based on the way information is presented, a phenomenon known as "framing bias." We assessed numeracy and framing bias in 95 adults with chronic epilepsy and explored cognitive correlates of framing bias. Compared with normal controls, patients with epilepsy had significantly poorer performance on the Numeracy scale (P=0.02), despite a higher level of education than normal controls (P<0.001). Compared with patients with higher numeracy, patients with lower numeracy were significantly more likely to exhibit framing bias. Abstract problem solving performance correlated with the degree of framing bias (r=0.631, P<0.0001), suggesting a relationship between aspects of executive functioning and framing bias. Poor numeracy and susceptibility framing bias place patients with epilepsy at risk for uninformed decisions.

  8. Heroin: Statistics and Trends

    MedlinePlus

    ... Naloxone Pain Prevention Treatment Trends & Statistics Women and Drugs Publications Funding Funding Opportunities Clinical Research Post-Award Concerns General Information Grant & Contract Application ...

  9. Information processing bias and pharmacotherapy outcome in older adults with generalized anxiety disorder.

    PubMed

    Steiner, Amanda R W; Petkus, Andrew J; Nguyen, Hoang; Wetherell, Julie Loebach

    2013-08-01

    Information processing bias was evaluated in a sample of 25 older adults with generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) over the course of 12 weeks of escitalopram pharmacotherapy. Using the CANTAB Affective Go/No Go test, treatment response (as measured by the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, Penn State Worry Questionnaire, and Generalized Anxiety Disorder Severity Scale) was predicted from a bias score (i.e., difference score between response latencies for negative and positive words) using mixed-models regression. A more positive bias score across time predicted better response to treatment. Faster responses to positive words relative to negative words were associated with greater symptomatic improvement over time as reflected by scores on the GADSS. There was a trend toward significance for PSWQ scores and no significant effects related to HAMA outcomes. These preliminary findings offer further insights into the role of biased cognitive processing of emotional material in the manifestation of late-life anxiety symptoms.

  10. Effect of asymmetric molecule-electrode coupling and molecular bias on rectification in molecular junctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaur, Rupan Preet; Sawhney, Ravinder Singh; Engles, Derick

    2016-12-01

    In this research work, we compare the rectification trends of two symmetrical and one asymmetrical molecular junction formed with gold and silver electrodes bridging benzenedithiol molecule. The origin of rectification is attributed to both molecular bias drop and asymmetric molecule-electrode coupling. The electronic transport properties are computed by using semi-empirical extended Huckel method combined with non-equilibrium Green's function framework. The results are fully rationalized by analysing the distribution of molecular orbitals with changing bias voltage, available density of states and area of transmission spectra spanned within bias window, transmission eigenstates and transmission pathways. We deduce through this work that the molecular rectification is not only the property of asymmetric molecule-metal coupling, but molecular bias also plays vital role in stemming asymmetric I- V characteristics. Our results suggest how to realize molecular rectification by using different electrode materials which act as Schottky barriers in molecular junctions that emulate p-n junction diode in semiconductor electronics.

  11. Trends in MODIS Geolocation Error Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wolfe, R. E.; Nishihama, Masahiro

    2009-01-01

    Data from the two MODIS instruments have been accurately geolocated (Earth located) to enable retrieval of global geophysical parameters. The authors describe the approach used to geolocate with sub-pixel accuracy over nine years of data from M0DIS on NASA's E0S Terra spacecraft and seven years of data from MODIS on the Aqua spacecraft. The approach uses a geometric model of the MODIS instruments, accurate navigation (orbit and attitude) data and an accurate Earth terrain model to compute the location of each MODIS pixel. The error analysis approach automatically matches MODIS imagery with a global set of over 1,000 ground control points from the finer-resolution Landsat satellite to measure static biases and trends in the MO0lS geometric model parameters. Both within orbit and yearly thermally induced cyclic variations in the pointing have been found as well as a general long-term trend.

  12. Observations and Models of Galaxy Assembly Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Campbell, Duncan A.

    2017-01-01

    The assembly history of dark matter haloes imparts various correlations between a halo’s physical properties and its large scale environment, i.e. assembly bias. It is common for models of the galaxy-halo connection to assume that galaxy properties are only a function of halo mass, implicitly ignoring how assembly bias may affect galaxies. Recently, programs to model and constrain the degree to which galaxy properties are influenced by assembly bias have been undertaken; however, the extent and character of galaxy assembly bias remains a mystery. Nevertheless, characterizing and modeling galaxy assembly bias is an important step in understanding galaxy evolution and limiting any systematic effects assembly bias may pose in cosmological measurements using galaxy surveys.I will present work on modeling and constraining the effect of assembly bias in two galaxy properties: stellar mass and star-formation rate. Conditional abundance matching allows for these galaxy properties to be tied to halo formation history to a variable degree, making studies of the relative strength of assembly bias possible. Galaxy-galaxy clustering and galactic conformity, the degree to which galaxy color is correlated between neighbors, are sensitive observational measures of galaxy assembly bias. I will show how these measurements can be used to constrain galaxy assembly bias and the peril of ignoring it.

  13. Trends in Educational Technology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ely, Donald P.

    Based on the findings of a content analysis of representative literature on educational technology, this report examines the trends in educational technology from October 1, 1990 through September 30, 1991. Ten trends for 1991 are identified and discussed: (1) the creation of technology-based teaching/learning products is based largely on…

  14. Trends Shaping Education 2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2010

    2010-01-01

    "Trends Shaping Education 2010" brings together evidence showing the effects on education of globalisation, social challenges, changes in the workplace, the transformation of childhood, and ICT. To make the content accessible, each trend is presented on a double page, containing an introduction, two charts with brief descriptive text and a set of…

  15. TRENDS IN ADULT READING.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MILLER, JUSTIN H.

    TRENDS EVIDENT IN ADULT READING DURING THE 1960'S IN THE AREAS OF ADMINISTRATION, PROGRAMS, TEACHING, TECHNIQUES, RESEARCH PROJECTS, AND METHODS OF PROMOTION OF READING PROGRAMS ARE DISCUSSED. TWO INSTANCES OF COMMERCIAL EXPLOITATION BASED ON INTENSE AND OFTEN FALLACIOUS ADVERTISING AND ON PUBLIC IGNORANCE ARE CITED. A POSITIVE TREND IN THE AREA…

  16. A meta-analysis of the effect of cognitive bias modification on anxiety and depression.

    PubMed

    Hallion, Lauren S; Ruscio, Ayelet Meron

    2011-11-01

    Cognitive biases have been theorized to play a critical role in the onset and maintenance of anxiety and depression. Cognitive bias modification (CBM), an experimental paradigm that uses training to induce maladaptive or adaptive cognitive biases, was developed to test these causal models. Although CBM has generated considerable interest in the past decade, both as an experimental paradigm and as a form of treatment, there have been no quantitative reviews of the effect of CBM on anxiety and depression. This meta-analysis of 45 studies (2,591 participants) assessed the effect of CBM on cognitive biases and on anxiety and depression. CBM had a medium effect on biases (g = 0.49) that was stronger for interpretation (g = 0.81) than for attention (g = 0.29) biases. CBM further had a small effect on anxiety and depression (g = 0.13), although this effect was reliable only when symptoms were assessed after participants experienced a stressor (g = 0.23). When anxiety and depression were examined separately, CBM significantly modified anxiety but not depression. There was a nonsignificant trend toward a larger effect for studies including multiple training sessions. These findings are broadly consistent with cognitive theories of anxiety and depression that propose an interactive effect of cognitive biases and stressors on these symptoms. However, the small effect sizes observed here suggest that this effect may be more modest than previously believed.

  17. Asymmetric divertor biasing in MAST

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helander, P.; Cohen, R.; Counsell, G. C.; Ryutov, D. D.

    2002-11-01

    Experiments are being carried out on the Mega-Ampere Spherical Tokamak (MAST) where the divertor tiles are electrically biased in a toroidally alternating way. The aim is to induce convective cells in the divertor plasma, broaden the SOL and reduce the divertor heat load. This paper describes the underlying theory and experimental results. Criteria are presented for achieving strong broadening and exciting shear-flow turbulence in the SOL, and properties of the expected turbulence are derived. It is also shown that magnetic shear near the X-point is likely to confine the potential perturbations to the divertor region, leaving the part of the SOL that is in direct contact with the core plasma intact. Preliminary comparison of the theory with MAST data is encouraging: the distortion of the heat deposition pattern, its broadening, and the incremental heat load are qualitatively in agreement; quantitative comparisons are underway.

  18. Reexamining our bias against heuristics.

    PubMed

    McLaughlin, Kevin; Eva, Kevin W; Norman, Geoff R

    2014-08-01

    Using heuristics offers several cognitive advantages, such as increased speed and reduced effort when making decisions, in addition to allowing us to make decision in situations where missing data do not allow for formal reasoning. But the traditional view of heuristics is that they trade accuracy for efficiency. Here the authors discuss sources of bias in the literature implicating the use of heuristics in diagnostic error and highlight the fact that there are also data suggesting that under certain circumstances using heuristics may lead to better decisions that formal analysis. They suggest that diagnostic error is frequently misattributed to the use of heuristics and propose an alternative view whereby content knowledge is the root cause of diagnostic performance and heuristics lie on the causal pathway between knowledge and diagnostic error or success.

  19. Social reward shapes attentional biases.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Brian A

    2016-01-01

    Paying attention to stimuli that predict a reward outcome is important for an organism to survive and thrive. When visual stimuli are associated with tangible, extrinsic rewards such as money or food, these stimuli acquire high attentional priority and come to automatically capture attention. In humans and other primates, however, many behaviors are not motivated directly by such extrinsic rewards, but rather by the social feedback that results from performing those behaviors. In the present study, I examine whether positive social feedback can similarly influence attentional bias. The results show that stimuli previously associated with a high probability of positive social feedback elicit value-driven attentional capture, much like stimuli associated with extrinsic rewards. Unlike with extrinsic rewards, however, such stimuli also influence task-specific motivation. My findings offer a potential mechanism by which social reward shapes the information that we prioritize when perceiving the world around us.

  20. Understanding bias in provenance studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garzanti, Eduardo; Andò, Sergio; Malusà, Marco; Vezzoli, Giovanni

    2010-05-01

    Innumerable pieces of information are stored in the sedimentary archive. Each single sediment layer contains billions of detrital grains, and every grain preserves imprints of its geological story. If we learn to read, compare, and combine these messages properly, through a deeper understanding of physical and chemical processes that modify sediment composition during the sedimentary cycle, provenance analysis may eventually enable us to reconstruct more accurately the geological processes that shaped the Earth's crust in the past. Interpreting detrital modes is not straightforward because provenance signals issued from source rocks become progressively blurred by multiple noises in the sedimentary environment ("environmental bias"; Komar, 2007), and finally during post-depositional history ("diagenetic bias"; Morton and Hallsworth, 2007). During transport and deposition, detrital minerals are segregated in different size fractions and environments according to their size, density and shape (Rubey, 1933; Garzanti et al., 2008). Heavy-mineral concentration can increase by an order of magnitude due to selective-entrainment effects, with potentially overwhelming impact on chemical composition and provenance estimates based on detrital-geochronology data (Garzanti et al., 2009). Conversely, heavy-mineral concentration is typically reduced by an order of magnitude in Alpine and Himalayan foreland-basin deposits older than the Pleistocene (Garzanti and Andò, 2007). Extensive chemical dissolution can occur even prior to deposition during weathering in hot humid climates (Velbel, 2007). Primary provenance signals can be isolated and assessed by studying first modern sediments in hyperarid settings (i.e., free from diagenetic and weathering bias). Next, weathering, hydraulic-sorting, and diagenetic effects can be singled out by analysing sediments of similar provenance produced in contrasting climatic conditions, sediments transported in diverse modes and deposited in

  1. On evolutionary explanations of cognitive biases.

    PubMed

    Marshall, James A R; Trimmer, Pete C; Houston, Alasdair I; McNamara, John M

    2013-08-01

    Apparently irrational biases such as overconfidence, optimism, and pessimism are increasingly studied by biologists, psychologists, and neuroscientists. Functional explanations of such phenomena are essential; we argue that recent proposals, focused on benefits from overestimating the probability of success in conflicts or practising self-deception to better deceive others, are still lacking in crucial regards. Attention must be paid to the difference between cognitive and outcome biases; outcome biases are suboptimal, yet cognitive biases can be optimal. However, given that cognitive biases are subjectively experienced by affected individuals, developing theory and collecting evidence on them poses challenges. An evolutionary theory of cognitive bias might require closer integration of function and mechanism, analysing the evolution of constraints imposed by the mechanisms that determine behaviour.

  2. Professional Culture and Climate: Addressing Unconscious Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Knezek, Patricia

    2016-10-01

    Unconscious bias reflects expectations or stereotypes that influence our judgments of others (regardless of our own group). Everyone has unconscious biases. The end result of unconscious bias can be an accumulation of advantage or disadvantage that impacts the long term career success of individuals, depending on which biases they are subject to. In order to foster a professional culture and climate, being aware of these unconscious biases and mitigating against them is a first step. This is particularly important when judgements are needed, such as in cases for recruitment, choice of speakers for conferences, and even reviewing papers submitted for publication. This presentation will cover how unconscious bias manifests itself, what evidence exists to demonstrate it exists, and ways it can be addressed.

  3. Symmetry as Bias: Rediscovering Special Relativity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lowry, Michael R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes a rational reconstruction of Einstein's discovery of special relativity, validated through an implementation: the Erlanger program. Einstein's discovery of special relativity revolutionized both the content of physics and the research strategy used by theoretical physicists. This research strategy entails a mutual bootstrapping process between a hypothesis space for biases, defined through different postulated symmetries of the universe, and a hypothesis space for physical theories. The invariance principle mutually constrains these two spaces. The invariance principle enables detecting when an evolving physical theory becomes inconsistent with its bias, and also when the biases for theories describing different phenomena are inconsistent. Structural properties of the invariance principle facilitate generating a new bias when an inconsistency is detected. After a new bias is generated. this principle facilitates reformulating the old, inconsistent theory by treating the latter as a limiting approximation. The structural properties of the invariance principle can be suitably generalized to other types of biases to enable primal-dual learning.

  4. Publication Bias in Methodological Computational Research

    PubMed Central

    Boulesteix, Anne-Laure; Stierle, Veronika; Hapfelmeier, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    The problem of publication bias has long been discussed in research fields such as medicine. There is a consensus that publication bias is a reality and that solutions should be found to reduce it. In methodological computational research, including cancer informatics, publication bias may also be at work. The publication of negative research findings is certainly also a relevant issue, but has attracted very little attention to date. The present paper aims at providing a new formal framework to describe the notion of publication bias in the context of methodological computational research, facilitate and stimulate discussions on this topic, and increase awareness in the scientific community. We report an exemplary pilot study that aims at gaining experiences with the collection and analysis of information on unpublished research efforts with respect to publication bias, and we outline the encountered problems. Based on these experiences, we try to formalize the notion of publication bias. PMID:26508827

  5. Cognitive Biases and Nonverbal Cue Availability in Detecting Deception

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burgoon, Judee K.; Blair, J. Pete; Strom, Renee E.

    2008-01-01

    In potentially deceptive situations, people rely on mental shortcuts to help process information. These heuristic judgments are often biased and result in inaccurate assessments of sender veracity. Four such biases--truth bias, visual bias, demeanor bias, and expectancy violation bias--were examined in a judgment experiment that varied nonverbal…

  6. When Do Children Exhibit a "Yes" Bias?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Okanda, Mako; Itakura, Shoji

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated whether one hundred and thirty-five 3- to 6-year-old children exhibit a yes bias to various yes-no questions and whether their knowledge status affects the production of a yes bias. Three-year-olds exhibited a yes bias to all yes-no questions such as "preference-object" and "knowledge-object" questions pertaining to…

  7. Electric Control of Exchange Bias Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Echtenkamp, W.; Binek, Ch.

    2013-11-01

    Voltage-controlled exchange bias training and tunability are introduced. Isothermal voltage pulses are used to reverse the antiferromagnetic order parameter of magnetoelectric Cr2O3, and thus continuously tune the exchange bias of an adjacent CoPd film. Voltage-controlled exchange bias training is initialized by tuning the antiferromagnetic interface into a nonequilibrium state incommensurate with the underlying bulk. Interpretation of these hitherto unreported effects contributes to new understanding in electrically controlled magnetism.

  8. Chronic and acute biases in perceptual stabilization

    PubMed Central

    Al-Dossari, Munira; Blake, Randolph; Brascamp, Jan W.; Freeman, Alan W.

    2015-01-01

    When perceptually ambiguous stimuli are presented intermittently, the percept on one presentation tends to be the same as that on the previous presentation. The role of short-term, acute biases in the production of this perceptual stability is relatively well understood. In addition, however, long-lasting, chronic bias may also contribute to stability. In this paper we develop indices for both biases and for stability, and show that stability can be expressed as a sum of contributions from the two types of bias. We then apply this analytical procedure to binocular rivalry, showing that adjustment of the monocular contrasts can alter the relative contributions of the two biases. Stability is mainly determined by chronic bias when the contrasts are equal, but acute bias dominates stability when right-eye contrast is set lower than left-eye contrast. Finally, we show that the right-eye bias persists in continuous binocular rivalry. Our findings reveal a previously unappreciated contribution of chronic bias to stable perception. PMID:26641947

  9. Detecting Gender Bias Through Test Item Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    González-Espada, Wilson J.

    2009-03-01

    Many physical science and physics instructors might not be trained in pedagogically appropriate test construction methods. This could lead to test items that do not measure what they are intended to measure. A subgroup of these items might show bias against some groups of students. This paper describes how the author became aware of potentially biased items against females in his examinations, which led to the exploration of fundamental issues related to item validity, gender bias, and differential item functioning, or DIF. A brief discussion of DIF in the context of university courses, as well as practical suggestions to detect possible gender-biased items, follows.

  10. Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions

    PubMed Central

    Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C.; Gardner, Justin L.

    2016-01-01

    When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject’s default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics. PMID:27330086

  11. Identifying and Avoiding Bias in Research

    PubMed Central

    Pannucci, Christopher J.; Wilkins, Edwin G.

    2010-01-01

    This narrative review provides an overview on the topic of bias as part of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery's series of articles on evidence-based medicine. Bias can occur in the planning, data collection, analysis, and publication phases of research. Understanding research bias allows readers to critically and independently review the scientific literature and avoid treatments which are suboptimal or potentially harmful. A thorough understanding of bias and how it affects study results is essential for the practice of evidence-based medicine. PMID:20679844

  12. Bayesian long branch attraction bias and corrections.

    PubMed

    Susko, Edward

    2015-03-01

    Previous work on the star-tree paradox has shown that Bayesian methods suffer from a long branch attraction bias. That work is extended to settings involving more taxa and partially resolved trees. The long branch attraction bias is confirmed to arise more broadly and an additional source of bias is found. A by-product of the analysis is methods that correct for biases toward particular topologies. The corrections can be easily calculated using existing Bayesian software. Posterior support for a set of two or more trees can thus be supplemented with corrected versions to cross-check or replace results. Simulations show the corrections to be highly effective.

  13. Bias correction of global and regional simulated daily precipitation and surface mean temperature over Southeast Asia using quantile mapping method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ngai, Sheau Tieh; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew

    2017-02-01

    A trend preserving quantile mapping (QM) method was applied to adjust the biases of the global and regional climate models (GCM and RCMs) simulated daily precipitation and surface mean temperature over Southeast Asia regions based on APHRODITE dataset. Output from four different RCMs as well as their driving GCM in CORDEX-EA archive were corrected to examine the added value of RCMs dynamical downscaling in the context of bias adjustment. The result shows that the RCM biases are comparable to that of the GCM biases. In some instances, RCMs amplified the GCM biases. Generally, QM method substantially improves the biases for both precipitation and temperature. However, the bias adjustment method works better for surface mean temperature and less so for daily precipitation. The large inter-models variability is reduced remarkably after bias adjustment. Overall, study indicates no strong evident that RCMs downscaling as an immediate step before bias correction provides additional improvement to the sub-regional climate compared to the correction directly carried out on their forcing GCM.

  14. An assessment of change in risk perception and optimistic bias for hurricanes among Gulf Coast residents.

    PubMed

    Trumbo, Craig; Meyer, Michelle A; Marlatt, Holly; Peek, Lori; Morrissey, Bridget

    2014-06-01

    This study focuses on levels of concern for hurricanes among individuals living along the Gulf Coast during the quiescent two-year period following the exceptionally destructive 2005 hurricane season. A small study of risk perception and optimistic bias was conducted immediately following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Two years later, a follow-up was done in which respondents were recontacted. This provided an opportunity to examine changes, and potential causal ordering, in risk perception and optimistic bias. The analysis uses 201 panel respondents who were matched across the two mail surveys. Measures included hurricane risk perception, optimistic bias for hurricane evacuation, past hurricane experience, and a small set of demographic variables (age, sex, income, and education). Paired t-tests were used to compare scores across time. Hurricane risk perception declined and optimistic bias increased. Cross-lagged correlations were used to test the potential causal ordering between risk perception and optimistic bias, with a weak effect suggesting the former affects the latter. Additional cross-lagged analysis using structural equation modeling was used to look more closely at the components of optimistic bias (risk to self vs. risk to others). A significant and stronger potentially causal effect from risk perception to optimistic bias was found. Analysis of the experience and demographic variables' effects on risk perception and optimistic bias, and their change, provided mixed results. The lessening of risk perception and increase in optimistic bias over the period of quiescence suggest that risk communicators and emergency managers should direct attention toward reversing these trends to increase disaster preparedness.

  15. Healthy food trends -- quinoa

    MedlinePlus

    Healthy food trends - goosefoot; Healthy snacks - quinoa; Weight loss - quinoa; Healthy diet - quinoa; Wellness - quinoa ... Quinoa is rich in protein . It has almost twice the amount of protein found in oats, and ...

  16. Trends in stratospheric temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Newman, P. A.; Rosenfield, J. E.; Angell, J.; Barnett, J.; Boville, B. A.; Chandra, S.; Fels, S.; Fleming, E.; Gelman, M.

    1989-01-01

    Stratospheric temperatures for long-term and recent trends and the determination of whether observed changes in upper stratospheric temperatures are consistent with observed ozone changes are discussed. The long-term temperature trends were determined up to 30mb from radiosonde analysis (since 1970) and rocketsondes (since 1969 and 1973) up to the lower mesosphere, principally in the Northern Hemisphere. The more recent trends (since 1979) incorporate satellite observations. The mechanisms that can produce recent temperature trends in the stratosphere are discussed. The following general effects are discussed: changes in ozone, changes in other radiatively active trace gases, changes in aerosols, changes in solar flux, and dynamical changes. Computations were made to estimate the temperature changes associated with the upper stratospheric ozone changes reported by the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument aboard Nimbus-7 and the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) instruments.

  17. Breast Cancer Trends

    MedlinePlus

    ... Breast Cancer Funding: Young Breast Cancer Survivors Funding: Breast Cancer Genomics Statistics Rates by Race and Ethnicity Rates by State Risk by Age Trends What CDC Is Doing Research African American Women and Mass Media Campaign Public Service Announcements Print ...

  18. Ozone Trend Detectability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Campbell, J. W. (Editor)

    1981-01-01

    The detection of anthropogenic disturbances in the Earth's ozone layer was studied. Two topics were addressed: (1) the level at which a trend in total ozoning is detected by existing data sources; and (2) empirical evidence in the prediction of the depletion in total ozone. Error sources are identified. The predictability of climatological series, whether empirical models can be trusted, and how errors in the Dobson total ozone data impact trend detectability, are discussed.

  19. Codon usage in Caenorhabditis elegans: delineation of translational selection and mutational biases.

    PubMed Central

    Stenico, M; Lloyd, A T; Sharp, P M

    1994-01-01

    Synonymous codon usage varies considerably among Caenorhabditis elegans genes. Multivariate statistical analyses reveal a single major trend among genes. At one end of the trend lie genes with relatively unbiased codon usage. These genes appear to be lowly expressed, and their patterns of codon usage are consistent with mutational biases influenced by the neighbouring nucleotide. At the other extreme lie genes with extremely biased codon usage. These genes appear to be highly expressed, and their codon usage seems to have been shaped by selection favouring a limited number of translationally optimal codons. Thus, the frequency of these optimal codons in a gene appears to be correlated with the level of gene expression, and may be a useful indicator in the case of genes (or open reading frames) whose expression levels (or even function) are unknown. A second, relatively minor trend among genes is correlated with the frequency of G at synonymously variable sites. It is not yet clear whether this trend reflects variation in base composition (or mutational biases) among regions of the C.elegans genome, or some other factor. Sequence divergence between C.elegans and C.briggsae has also been studied. PMID:8041603

  20. Haploinsufficiency predictions without study bias

    PubMed Central

    Steinberg, Julia; Honti, Frantisek; Meader, Stephen; Webber, Caleb

    2015-01-01

    Any given human individual carries multiple genetic variants that disrupt protein-coding genes, through structural variation, as well as nucleotide variants and indels. Predicting the phenotypic consequences of a gene disruption remains a significant challenge. Current approaches employ information from a range of biological networks to predict which human genes are haploinsufficient (meaning two copies are required for normal function) or essential (meaning at least one copy is required for viability). Using recently available study gene sets, we show that these approaches are strongly biased towards providing accurate predictions for well-studied genes. By contrast, we derive a haploinsufficiency score from a combination of unbiased large-scale high-throughput datasets, including gene co-expression and genetic variation in over 6000 human exomes. Our approach provides a haploinsufficiency prediction for over twice as many genes currently unassociated with papers listed in Pubmed as three commonly-used approaches, and outperforms these approaches for predicting haploinsufficiency for less-studied genes. We also show that fine-tuning the predictor on a set of well-studied ‘gold standard’ haploinsufficient genes does not improve the prediction for less-studied genes. This new score can readily be used to prioritize gene disruptions resulting from any genetic variant, including copy number variants, indels and single-nucleotide variants. PMID:26001969

  1. Modeling confirmation bias and polarization

    PubMed Central

    Del Vicario, Michela; Scala, Antonio; Caldarelli, Guido; Stanley, H. Eugene; Quattrociocchi, Walter

    2017-01-01

    Online users tend to select claims that adhere to their system of beliefs and to ignore dissenting information. Confirmation bias, indeed, plays a pivotal role in viral phenomena. Furthermore, the wide availability of content on the web fosters the aggregation of likeminded people where debates tend to enforce group polarization. Such a configuration might alter the public debate and thus the formation of the public opinion. In this paper we provide a mathematical model to study online social debates and the related polarization dynamics. We assume the basic updating rule of the Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) and we develop two variations a) the Rewire with Bounded Confidence Model (RBCM), in which discordant links are broken until convergence is reached; and b) the Unbounded Confidence Model, under which the interaction among discordant pairs of users is allowed even with a negative feedback, either with the rewiring step (RUCM) or without it (UCM). From numerical simulations we find that the new models (UCM and RUCM), unlike the BCM, are able to explain the coexistence of two stable final opinions, often observed in reality. Lastly, we present a mean field approximation of the newly introduced models. PMID:28074874

  2. Modeling confirmation bias and polarization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Del Vicario, Michela; Scala, Antonio; Caldarelli, Guido; Stanley, H. Eugene; Quattrociocchi, Walter

    2017-01-01

    Online users tend to select claims that adhere to their system of beliefs and to ignore dissenting information. Confirmation bias, indeed, plays a pivotal role in viral phenomena. Furthermore, the wide availability of content on the web fosters the aggregation of likeminded people where debates tend to enforce group polarization. Such a configuration might alter the public debate and thus the formation of the public opinion. In this paper we provide a mathematical model to study online social debates and the related polarization dynamics. We assume the basic updating rule of the Bounded Confidence Model (BCM) and we develop two variations a) the Rewire with Bounded Confidence Model (RBCM), in which discordant links are broken until convergence is reached; and b) the Unbounded Confidence Model, under which the interaction among discordant pairs of users is allowed even with a negative feedback, either with the rewiring step (RUCM) or without it (UCM). From numerical simulations we find that the new models (UCM and RUCM), unlike the BCM, are able to explain the coexistence of two stable final opinions, often observed in reality. Lastly, we present a mean field approximation of the newly introduced models.

  3. Exploratory Studies of Bias in Achievement Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Green, Donald Ross; Draper, John F.

    This paper considers the question of bias in group administered academic achievement tests, bias which is inherent in the instruments themselves. A body of data on the test of performance of three disadvantaged minority groups--northern, urban black; southern, rural black; and, southwestern, Mexican-Americans--as tryout samples in contrast to…

  4. Attributional Biases among Clinicians and Nonclinicians.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harari, Oren; Hosey, Karen R.

    1981-01-01

    Clinicians and nonclinicians made causal attributions to actor behaviors. Analysis showed clear observer attribution bias for both groups. A greater bias occurred with deviant actor behavior and in situations that featured actor actions over opinions over emotions. Results are discussed in terms of applicability to clinical practice. (Author/JAC)

  5. Hindsight Bias and Developing Theories of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernstein, Daniel M.; Atance, Cristina; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

    2007-01-01

    Although "hindsight bias" (the "I knew it all along" phenomenon) has been documented in adults, its development has not been investigated. This is despite the fact that hindsight bias errors closely resemble the errors children make on theory of mind (ToM) tasks. Two main goals of the present work were to (a) create a battery of hindsight tasks…

  6. Understanding Unconscious Bias and Unintentional Racism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moule, Jean

    2009-01-01

    Unconscious biases affect one's relationships, whether they are fleeting relationships in airports or longer term relationships between teachers and students, teachers and parents, teachers and other educators. In this article, the author argues that understanding one's possible biases is essential for developing community in schools.…

  7. Developmental Changes in the Whole Number Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braithwaite, David W.; Siegler, Robert S.

    2017-01-01

    Many students' knowledge of fractions is adversely affected by whole number bias, the tendency to focus on the separate whole number components (numerator and denominator) of a fraction rather than on the fraction's integrated magnitude (ratio of numerator to denominator). Although whole number bias appears early in the fraction learning process…

  8. Definition of the Situation and Observer Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kolman, Anita Sue

    An experiment is reported in which an attempt was made to bias college students' observations of a videotape of children at play. The study is framed in terms of W.I. Thomas' ideas concerning the definition of the situation. Observer bias is an instance when a definition of a situation is based primarily on subjective situational factors. Reliance…

  9. Biases in Children's and Adults' Moral Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Nina L.; Derbyshire, Stuart W. G.; Guttentag, Robert E.

    2012-01-01

    Two experiments examined biases in children's (5/6- and 7/8-year-olds) and adults' moral judgments. Participants at all ages judged that it was worse to produce harm when harm occurred (a) through action rather than inaction (omission bias), (b) when physical contact with the victim was involved (physical contact principle), and (c) when the harm…

  10. Distinctive characteristics of sexual orientation bias crimes.

    PubMed

    Stacey, Michele

    2011-10-01

    Despite increased attention in the area of hate crime research in the past 20 years, sexual orientation bias crimes have rarely been singled out for study. When these types of crimes are looked at, the studies are typically descriptive in nature. This article seeks to increase our knowledge of sexual orientation bias by answering the question: What are the differences between sexual orientation motivated bias crimes and racial bias crimes? This question is examined using data from the National Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and multiple regression techniques. This analysis draws on the strengths of NIBRS to look at the incident characteristics of hate crimes and distinguishing characteristics of sexual orientation crimes. Specifically this analysis looks at the types and seriousness of offenses motivated by sexual orientation bias as opposed to race bias as well as victim and offender characteristics. The findings suggest that there are differences between these two types of bias crimes, suggesting a need for further separation of the bias types in policy and research.

  11. Distinctive Characteristics of Sexual Orientation Bias Crimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stacey, Michele

    2011-01-01

    Despite increased attention in the area of hate crime research in the past 20 years, sexual orientation bias crimes have rarely been singled out for study. When these types of crimes are looked at, the studies are typically descriptive in nature. This article seeks to increase our knowledge of sexual orientation bias by answering the question:…

  12. Racially Biased Policing: Determinants of Citizen Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weitzer, Ronald; Tuch, Steven A.

    2005-01-01

    The current controversy surrounding racial profiling in America has focused renewed attention on the larger issue of racial bias by the police. Yet little is known about the extent of police racial bias and even less about public perceptions of the problem. This article analyzes recent national survey data on citizens' views of and reported…

  13. The Battle over Studies of Faculty Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gravois, John

    2007-01-01

    The American Federation of Teachers (AFT) recently commissioned a study to review the research that finds liberal bias run amok in academe. Believing that the AFT is not a dispassionate observer of this debate, this article provides "The Chronicle of Higher Education's" survey of the genre. The studies reviewed include: (1) "Political Bias in the…

  14. How Many Hindsight Biases Are There?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blank, Hartmut; Nestler, Steffen; von Collani, Gernot; Fischer, Volkhard

    2008-01-01

    The answer is three: questioning a conceptual default assumption in hindsight bias research, we argue that the hindsight bias is not a unitary phenomenon but consists of three separable and partially independent subphenomena or components, namely, memory distortions, impressions of foreseeability and impressions of necessity. Following a detailed…

  15. Distractors--Can They Be Biased Too?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alagumalai, Sivakumar; Keeves, John P.

    1999-01-01

    How distractors in a test item function differentially is discussed. Also discussed are methods to identify distractor bias, including the Pearson chi square, likelihood-ratio chi square, and the Neyman weighted-least squares chi square tests. Problems from a physics test illustrate possible causes of distractor bias. (SLD)

  16. Understanding Implicit Bias: What Educators Should Know

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Staats, Cheryl

    2016-01-01

    The desire to ensure the best for children is precisely why educators should become aware of the concept of implicit bias: the attitudes or stereotypes that affect our understanding, actions, and decisions in an unconscious manner. Operating outside of our conscious awareness, implicit biases are pervasive, and they can challenge even the most…

  17. Full Electric Control of Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, S. M.; Cybart, Shane A.; Yi, D.; Parker, James M.; Ramesh, R.; Dynes, R. C.

    2013-02-01

    We report the creation of a multiferroic field effect device with a BiFeO3 (BFO) (antiferromagnetic-ferroelectric) gate dielectric and a La0.7Sr0.3MnO3 (LSMO) (ferromagnetic) conducting channel that exhibits direct, bipolar electrical control of exchange bias. We show that exchange bias is reversibly switched between two stable states with opposite exchange bias polarities upon ferroelectric poling of the BFO. No field cooling, temperature cycling, or additional applied magnetic or electric field beyond the initial BFO polarization is needed for this bipolar modulation effect. Based on these results and the current understanding of exchange bias, we propose a model to explain the control of exchange bias. In this model the coupled antiferromagnetic-ferroelectric order in BFO along with the modulation of interfacial exchange interactions due to ionic displacement of Fe3+ in BFO relative to Mn3+/4+ in LSMO cause bipolar modulation.

  18. A catalog of biases in questionnaires.

    PubMed

    Choi, Bernard C K; Pak, Anita W P

    2005-01-01

    Bias in questionnaires is an important issue in public health research. To collect the most accurate data from respondents, investigators must understand and be able to prevent or at least minimize bias in the design of their questionnaires. This paper identifies and categorizes 48 types of bias in questionnaires based on a review of the literature and offers an example of each type. The types are categorized according to three main sources of bias: the way a question is designed, the way the questionnaire as a whole is designed, and how the questionnaire is administered. This paper is intended to help investigators in public health understand the mechanism and dynamics of problems in questionnaire design and to provide a checklist for identifying potential bias in a questionnaire before it is administered.

  19. Sampling Bias on Cup Anemometer Mean Winds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristensen, L.; Hansen, O. F.; Højstrup, J.

    2003-10-01

    The cup anemometer signal can be sampled in several ways to obtain the mean wind speed. Here we discuss the sampling of series of mean wind speeds from consecutive rotor rotations, followed by unweighted and weighted averaging. It is shown that the unweighted averaging creates a positive bias on the long-term mean wind speed, which is at least one order of magnitude larger than the positive bias from the weighted averaging, also known as the sample-and-hold method. For a homogeneous, neutrally stratified flow the first biases are 1%-2%. For comparison the biases due to fluctuations of the three wind velocity components and due to calibration non-linearity are determined under the same conditions. The largest of these is the v-bias from direction fluctuations. The calculations pertain to the Risø P2546A model cup anemometer.

  20. Are all biases missing data problems?

    PubMed

    Howe, Chanelle J; Cain, Lauren E; Hogan, Joseph W

    2015-09-01

    Estimating causal effects is a frequent goal of epidemiologic studies. Traditionally, there have been three established systematic threats to consistent estimation of causal effects. These three threats are bias due to confounders, selection, and measurement error. Confounding, selection, and measurement bias have typically been characterized as distinct types of biases. However, each of these biases can also be characterized as missing data problems that can be addressed with missing data solutions. Here we describe how the aforementioned systematic threats arise from missing data as well as review methods and their related assumptions for reducing each bias type. We also link the assumptions made by the reviewed methods to the missing completely at random (MCAR) and missing at random (MAR) assumptions made in the missing data framework that allow for valid inferences to be made based on the observed, incomplete data.

  1. G Protein-Coupled Receptor Biased Agonism

    PubMed Central

    Hodavance, Sima Y.; Gareri, Clarice; Torok, Rachel D.; Rockman, Howard A.

    2016-01-01

    G protein-coupled receptors (GPCR) are the largest family of targets for current therapeutics. The classic model of their activation was binary, where agonist binding induced an active conformation and subsequent downstream signaling. Subsequently, the revised concept of biased agonism emerged, where different ligands at the same GPCR selectively activate one downstream pathway versus another. Advances in understanding the mechanism of biased agonism has led to the development of novel ligands, which have the potential for improved therapeutic and safety profiles. In this review, we summarize the theory and most recent breakthroughs in understanding biased signaling, examine recent laboratory investigations concerning biased ligands across different organ systems, and discuss the promising clinical applications of biased agonism. PMID:26751266

  2. Adaptive Variable Bias Magnetic Bearing Control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Dexter; Brown, Gerald V.; Inman, Daniel J.

    1998-01-01

    Most magnetic bearing control schemes use a bias current with a superimposed control current to linearize the relationship between the control current and the force it delivers. With the existence of the bias current, even in no load conditions, there is always some power consumption. In aerospace applications, power consumption becomes an important concern. In response to this concern, an alternative magnetic bearing control method, called Adaptive Variable Bias Control (AVBC), has been developed and its performance examined. The AVBC operates primarily as a proportional-derivative controller with a relatively slow, bias current dependent, time-varying gain. The AVBC is shown to reduce electrical power loss, be nominally stable, and provide control performance similar to conventional bias control. Analytical, computer simulation, and experimental results are presented in this paper.

  3. Evidence Of Nationalistic Bias In Muaythai

    PubMed Central

    Myers, Tony D.; Balmer, Nigel J.; Nevill, Alan M.; Nakeeb, Yahya Al

    2006-01-01

    MuayThai is a combat sport with a growing international profile but limited research conducted into judging practices and processes. Problems with judging of other subjectively judged combat sports have caused controversy at major international tournaments that have resulted in changes to scoring methods. Nationalistic bias has been central to these problems and has been identified across a range of sports. The aim of this study was to examine nationalistic bias in MuayThai. Data were collected from the International Federation of MuayThai Amateur (IFMA) World Championships held in Almaty, Kazakhstan September 2003 and comprised of tournament results from 70 A-class MuayThai bouts each judged by between five and nine judges. Bouts examined featured 62 competitors from 21 countries and 25 judges from 11 countries. Results suggested that nationalistic bias was evident. The bias observed equated to approximately one round difference between opposing judges over the course of a bout (a mean of 1.09 (SE=0.50) points difference between judges with opposing affilations). The number of neutral judges used meant that this level of bias generally did not influence the outcome of bouts. Future research should explore other ingroup biases, such as nearest neighbour bias and political bias as well as investigating the feasibility adopting an electronic scoring system. Key Points Nationalistic bias is evident in international amateur MuayThai judging. The impact on the outcome of bouts is limited. The practice of using a large number of neutral judges appears to reduce the impact of nationalistic bias. PMID:24357972

  4. Medical journal peer review: process and bias.

    PubMed

    Manchikanti, Laxmaiah; Kaye, Alan D; Boswell, Mark V; Hirsch, Joshua A

    2015-01-01

    Scientific peer review is pivotal in health care research in that it facilitates the evaluation of findings for competence, significance, and originality by qualified experts. While the origins of peer review can be traced to the societies of the eighteenth century, it became an institutionalized part of the scholarly process in the latter half of the twentieth century. This was a response to the growth of research and greater subject specialization. With the current increase in the number of specialty journals, the peer review process continues to evolve to meet the needs of patients, clinicians, and policy makers. The peer review process itself faces challenges. Unblinded peer review might suffer from positive or negative bias towards certain authors, specialties, and institutions. Peer review can also suffer when editors and/or reviewers might be unable to understand the contents of the submitted manuscript. This can result in an inability to detect major flaws, or revelations of major flaws after acceptance of publication by the editors. Other concerns include potentially long delays in publication and challenges uncovering plagiarism, duplication, corruption and scientific misconduct. Conversely, a multitude of these challenges have led to claims of scientific misconduct and an erosion of faith. These challenges have invited criticism of the peer review process itself. However, despite its imperfections, the peer review process enjoys widespread support in the scientific community. Peer review bias is one of the major focuses of today's scientific assessment of the literature. Various types of peer review bias include content-based bias, confirmation bias, bias due to conservatism, bias against interdisciplinary research, publication bias, and the bias of conflicts of interest. Consequently, peer review would benefit from various changes and improvements with appropriate training of reviewers to provide quality reviews to maintain the quality and integrity of

  5. Oceanic origin of southeast tropical Atlantic biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Patricola, Christina M.; Chang, Ping

    2014-12-01

    Most coupled general circulation models suffer from a prominent warm sea surface temperature bias in the southeast tropical Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Africa. The origin of the bias is not understood and remains highly controversial. Previous studies suggest that the origin of the bias stems from systematic errors of atmospheric models in simulating surface heat flux and coastal wind, or poorly simulated coastal upwelling. In this study, we show, using different reanalysis and observational data sets combined with a set of eddy-resolving regional ocean model simulations, that systematic errors in ocean models also make a significant contribution to the bias problem. In particular (1) the strong warm bias at the Angola-Benguela front that is maintained by the local wind and the convergence of Angola and Benguela Currents is caused by an overshooting of the Angola Current in ocean models and (2) the alongshore warm bias to the south of the front is caused by ocean model deficiencies in simulating the sharp thermocline along the Angola coast, which is linked to biases in the equatorial thermocline, and the complex circulation system within the Benguela upwelling zone.

  6. Auditory Localisation Biases Increase with Sensory Uncertainty

    PubMed Central

    Garcia, Sara E.; Jones, Pete R.; Rubin, Gary S.; Nardini, Marko

    2017-01-01

    Psychophysical studies have frequently found that adults with normal hearing exhibit systematic errors (biases) in their auditory localisation judgments. Here we tested (i) whether systematic localisation errors could reflect reliance on prior knowledge, as has been proposed for other systematic perceptual biases, and (ii) whether auditory localisation biases can be reduced following training with accurate visual feedback. Twenty-four normal hearing participants were asked to localise the position of a noise burst along the azimuth before, during, and after training with visual feedback. Consistent with reliance on prior knowledge to reduce sensory uncertainty, we found that auditory localisation biases increased when auditory localisation uncertainty increased. Specifically, participants mis-localised auditory stimuli as being more eccentric than they were, and did so more when auditory uncertainty was greater. However, biases also increased with eccentricity, despite no corresponding increase in uncertainty, which is not readily explained by use of a simple prior favouring peripheral locations. Localisation biases decreased (improved) following training with visual feedback, but the reliability of the visual feedback stimulus did not change the effects of training. We suggest that further research is needed to identify alternative mechanisms, besides use of prior knowledge, that could account for increased perceptual biases under sensory uncertainty. PMID:28074913

  7. [Practical considerations on detection of publication bias].

    PubMed

    Palma Pérez, Silvia; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2006-12-01

    The present review aims to answer 3 questions: does publication bias need to be assessed in meta-analyses?; what procedures, not requiring complex statistical approaches, can be applied to detect it?; and should other factors be taken into account when interpreting the procedures? The first question is easy to answer. Publication bias is a potential threat to the validity of the conclusions of meta-analyses. Therefore, both the MOOSE and QUOROM statements include publication bias in their guidelines; nevertheless, many meta-analyses do not use these statements (e.g., meta-analyses conducted by the Cochrane Collaboration), perhaps because they use a comprehensive search strategy. There are many methods to assess publication bias. The most frequently used are funnel plots or , (which allow the effects of bias to be estimated), and methods based upon regression on plots, such as Egger's method and funnel plot regression. An advantage of these methods is that they can only be applied using published data. However, agreement between these methods in detecting bias is often poor. Therefore, application of more than one method to detect publication bias is recommended. To correctly interpret the results, the number of pooled studies should be more than 10 and the existence of heterogeneity in the pooled estimate must be taken into account.

  8. Trends in source gases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ehhalt, D. H.; Fraser, P. J.; Albritton, D.; Cicerone, R. J.; Khalil, M. A. K.; Legrand, M.; Makide, Y.; Rowland, F. S.; Steele, L. P.; Zander, R.

    1989-01-01

    Source gases are defined as those gases that, by their breakdown, introduce into the stratosphere halogen, hydrogen, and nitrogen compounds that are important in stratospheric ozone destruction. Given here is an update of the existing concentration time series for chlorocarbons, nitrous oxide, and methane. Also reviewed is information on halogen containing species and the use of these data for establishing trends. Also reviewed is evidence on trends in trace gases that influence tropospheric chemistry and thus the tropospheric lifetimes of source gases, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, or nitrogen oxides. Much of the information is given in tabular form.

  9. Some fighter aircraft trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spearman, L.

    1985-01-01

    Some basic trends in fighters are traced from the post World II era. Beginning with the first operational jet fighter, the P-80, the characteristics of subsequent fighter aircraft are examined for performance, mission capability, effectiveness, and cost. Characteristics presented include: power loading, wing loading, maximum speed, rate of climb, turn rate, weight and weight distribution, cost and cost distribution. The characteristics of some USSR aircraft are included for comparison. The trends indicate some of the rationale for certain fighter designs and some likely characteristics to be sought in future fighter aircraft designs.

  10. Bounding the bias of contrastive divergence learning.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Asja; Igel, Christian

    2011-03-01

    Optimization based on k-step contrastive divergence (CD) has become a common way to train restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs). The k-step CD is a biased estimator of the log-likelihood gradient relying on Gibbs sampling. We derive a new upper bound for this bias. Its magnitude depends on k, the number of variables in the RBM, and the maximum change in energy that can be produced by changing a single variable. The last reflects the dependence on the absolute values of the RBM parameters. The magnitude of the bias is also affected by the distance in variation between the modeled distribution and the starting distribution of the Gibbs chain.

  11. Assessing the impact of satellite-based observations in sea surface temperature trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Boyin; Liu, Chunying; Banzon, Viva F.; Zhang, Huai-Min; Karl, Thomas R.; Lawrimore, Jay H.; Vose, Russell S.

    2016-04-01

    Global trends of sea surface temperature (SST) are assessed for the existing and new experimental SST analyses that incorporate advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) observations from NOAA polar-orbiting satellites. These analyses show that globally and annually averaged SST trends over the 21st century (2000-2015) are similar to the trends for the full satellite record period (1982-2015), regardless of whether AVHRR data are included in the analyses. It is shown that appropriate bias correction is an important step to remove discontinuities of AVHRR data for consistent time series and trend analysis.

  12. Exploration of Temporal ICD Coding Bias Related to Acute Diabetic Conditions

    PubMed Central

    McKillop, Mollie; Polubriaginof, Fernanda; Weng, Chunhua

    2015-01-01

    Electronic Health Records (EHRs) hold great promise for secondary data reuse but have been reported to contain severe biases. The temporal characteristics of coding biases remain unclear. This study used a survival analysis approach to reveal temporal bias trends for coding acute diabetic conditions among 268 diabetes patients. For glucose-controlled ketoacidosis patients we found it took an average of 7.5 months for the incorrect code to be removed, while for glucose-controlled hypoglycemic patients it took an average of 9 months. We also examined blood glucose lab values and performed a case review to confirm the validity of our findings. We discuss the implications of our findings and propose future work. PMID:26958300

  13. Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes.

    PubMed

    Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P; Fischer, Woodward W; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

    2016-10-01

    Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time.

  14. Time scale bias in erosion rates of glaciated landscapes

    PubMed Central

    Ganti, Vamsi; von Hagke, Christoph; Scherler, Dirk; Lamb, Michael P.; Fischer, Woodward W.; Avouac, Jean-Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Deciphering erosion rates over geologic time is fundamental for understanding the interplay between climate, tectonic, and erosional processes. Existing techniques integrate erosion over different time scales, and direct comparison of such rates is routinely done in earth science. On the basis of a global compilation, we show that erosion rate estimates in glaciated landscapes may be affected by a systematic averaging bias that produces higher estimated erosion rates toward the present, which do not reflect straightforward changes in erosion rates through time. This trend can result from a heavy-tailed distribution of erosional hiatuses (that is, time periods where no or relatively slow erosion occurs). We argue that such a distribution can result from the intermittency of erosional processes in glaciated landscapes that are tightly coupled to climate variability from decadal to millennial time scales. In contrast, we find no evidence for a time scale bias in spatially averaged erosion rates of landscapes dominated by river incision. We discuss the implications of our findings in the context of the proposed coupling between climate and tectonics, and interpreting erosion rate estimates with different averaging time scales through geologic time. PMID:27713925

  15. Cassini Thruster Calibration Algorithm Using Reaction Wheel Biasing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rizvi, Farheen

    2012-01-01

    Thrust force estimates for the reaction control thrusters on-board Cassini spacecraft are presented in this paper. Cassini consists of two thruster branches (A and B) each with eight thrusters. The four Z-thrusters control the X and Y-axes, while the four Y-thrusters control the Z-axis. It is important to track the thrust force estimates in order to detect any thruster degradation and for supporting various activities in spacecraft operations (Titan flyby, spacecraft maneuvers). The Euler equation, which describes the rotational motion of the spacecraft during a reaction wheel bias event, is used to develop the algorithm. The thrust estimates are obtained from the pseudo inverse solution using flight telemetry during the bias. Results show that the A-branch Z3A and Z4A thrusters exhibited degraded thrust in November 2008. Due to the degraded thrust performance of Z3A and Z4A, A-branch usage was discontinued and prime branch was swapped to B-branch in March 2009. The thrust estimates from the B-branch do not show any degradation to date. The algorithm is used to trend the B-branch thrust force estimates as the mission continues.

  16. Memory effect versus exchange bias for maghemite nanoparticles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nadeem, K.; Krenn, H.; Szabó, D. V.

    2015-11-01

    We studied the temperature dependence of memory and exchange bias effects and their dependence on each other in maghemite (γ-Fe2O3) nanoparticles by using magnetization studies. Memory effect in zero field cooled process in nanoparticles is a fingerprint of spin-glass behavior which can be due to i) surface disordered spins (surface spin-glass) and/or ii) randomly frozen and interacting nanoparticles core spins (super spin-glass). Temperature region (25-70 K) for measurements has been chosen just below the average blocking temperature (TB=75 K) of the nanoparticles. Memory effect (ME) shows a non-monotonous behavior with temperature. It shows a decreasing trend with decreasing temperature and nearly vanishes below 30 K. However it also decreased again near the blocking temperature of the nanoparticles e.g., 70 K. Exchange bias (EB) in these nanoparticles arises due to core/shell interface interactions. The EB increases sharply below 30 K due to increase in core/shell interactions, while ME starts vanishing below 30 K. We conclude that the core/shell interface interactions or EB have not enhanced the ME but may reduce it in these nanoparticles.

  17. Remote Impact of Extratropical Thermal Bias on Tropical Biases in the Norwegian Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koseki, Shunya; Losada, Teresa; Keenlyside, Noel; Toniazzo, Thomas; Castano-Tierno, Antonio; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Demissie, Teferi; Mechoso, Roberto

    2016-04-01

    One of large biases exhibited by most state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) is warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical ocean. Due to the warm SST bias, CGCMs fails to represent the location of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) realistically. Other common bias is warm SST over the Southern Ocean partly because of less reproduction of stratocumulus over the Southern Ocean. Some previous studies show that the ITCZ position is affected by the extratropical thermal condition. In this study, we explore a connection between the extratropical warm SST bias and tropical biases in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The control simulation of NorESM has the common tropical biases and warm bias over the Southern Ocean. NorESM overestimates the downward shortwave radiation flux over the Southern Ocean and underestimates the low-level cloud formation (in particular, between 40S and 30S). The more incoming shortwave radiation is consistent with the warm SST bias over the Southern Ocean. We conduct a sensitivity experiment in which the incoming shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is reduced artificially only between 30S and 60S. The reduced shortwave radiation cools the SST in the Southern Ocean. Interestingly, the annual-mean rainfall over the tropics is reduced (amplified) to the south (north) of the equator. Especially, the double-ITCZ over the tropical Pacific Ocean is diminished in the sensitivity experiment. Moreover, warm SST biases in the tropical ocean are also reduced. Over the tropical Atlantic, the reduction of biases is more remarkable in MAM and JJA: westerly bias over the equatorial Atlantic is reduced and SST is cooler compared to control simulation. Consequently, the rainfall increases (decreases) in the north (south) of the equator, that is, the sensitivity experiment shows more realistic climatological state. This result indicates that a part of tropical biases in NorESM is associated with the warm SST bias in

  18. Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orey, Michael; Sullivan, Michael; Molenda, Michael; Foley, Anne L.; Morgan, Janet; McKenney, Susan; Harada, Violet H.; Lee, Jung

    2003-01-01

    Contains five articles covering general trends and issues in instructional technology, including: developments in corporate training, higher education, and K-12 education; women's contributions to the leading instructional technology journals; developing science education materials via computer-based support; learning in the Information Age; and…

  19. Trends & Indicators: Enrollment Period

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harney, John O.

    2011-01-01

    Since New England Board of Higher Education (NEBHE) began publishing tables and charts exploring "Trends & Indicators" in New England higher education more than a half-century ago, few figures have grabbed as much attention as college "enrollment" data. These local, state, regional and national data go beyond simple…

  20. Trends in Rehabilitation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sink, Jack

    1977-01-01

    Discusses major potential trends in rehabilitation (identified through informal interviews with 94 individuals representing various organizations, progessions, or programs) e.g., services for the severely handicapped, return to the vocational emphasis, increased interagency cooperation, and consumer involvement. Modification of programs as a…

  1. Ten Top Tech Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McLester, Susan

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses the major technical issues, products, and practices of the day. The top ten tech trends are listed and discussed. These include: (1) data mining; (2) cyberbullying; (3) 21st century skills; (4) digital content; (5) learning at leisure; (6) personal responders; (7) mobile tools; (8) bandwidth; (9) open-source…

  2. Trends in Therapeutic Recreation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Ralph W.

    1995-01-01

    Discusses the implications of the rapid, dramatic changes taking place in therapeutic recreation for individuals with physical disabilities. The article notes the impact of changes in managed care, examines programming trends in therapeutic recreation (adventure/outdoor education, competitive sports, handcycling, health enhancement activities, and…

  3. Locker Room Design Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wiens, Janet

    2001-01-01

    Examines how today's college and university athletic locker rooms have become sophisticated recruiting tools that rival many professional facilities. Locker room design and location and their level of furniture, finishes, and equipment are discussed as is the trend for more environmentally friendly locker rooms. (GR)

  4. Active control system trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yore, E. E.; Gunderson, D. C.

    1976-01-01

    The active control concepts which achieve the benefit of improved mission performance and lower cost and generate system trends towards improved dynamic performance, more integration, and digital fly by wire mechanization are described. Analytical issues and implementation requirements and tools and approaches developed to address the analytical and implementation issues are briefly discussed.

  5. Today's Recruitment Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sugarman, Joe

    1996-01-01

    Five trends in the creation of college student recruitment publications are identified: (1) using market research and marketing principles; (2) targeting specific groups; (3) honesty about campus personality and reputation; (4) cost-effectiveness; and (5) creativity in using effective copy and design. (MSE)

  6. Trends Reshaping Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Campbell, Dale F.; Peek, Roger C.

    2002-01-01

    Examines current educational trends in the community colleges, based on critical issues addressed at the 2002 Community College Futures Assembly (CCFA) in Orlando, Florida. Describes the CCFA as an independent policy forum, sponsored by the University of Florida, that convenes annually. Discusses the top three critical issues presented: the needs…

  7. Five Trends for Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lapkoff, Shelley; Li, Rose Maria

    2007-01-01

    The authors look at important demographic trends that will have an effect on schools, including roller-coaster enrollments and increasing diversity. For example, compared with 10 years ago, the average child entering a U.S. school today is less likely to live in a family with two married parents but is more likely to have a living grandparent,…

  8. Population Trends and Prospects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mauldin, W. Parker

    1980-01-01

    Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

  9. Trends in Educational Expenditure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burke, Gerald

    This study provides an overview of expenditures for education and training by educational institutions in Australia, 1991-2001. The study used newly available data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and administrative data from the main sectors' reports on the size and trends in public and private education expenditures. It analyzed…

  10. Trends in Terrorism: 2006

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-07-21

    This emergence of a global-homegrown terror movement has lent itself to the characterization of terrorism as a “ glocal ” phenomenon. Five major trends...foreign nations, especially training of investigators and prosecutors, through programs administered by the Department of Justice. In Mexico , for example

  11. The Top Ten Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bassi, Laurie J.; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Trends shaping the workplace are increased skill requirements; more educated, diverse work force; continued corporate restructuring; change in size and composition of training departments; instructional technology advances; new training delivery methods; focus on performance improvement; integrated high-performance work systems; companies becoming…

  12. Global Warming Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Philip D.; Wigley, Tom M. L.

    1990-01-01

    Results from the analysis of land and marine records from the past century are presented. It is indicated that the planet earth has warmed about one-half of a degree celsius. The uncertainty of these measurements and future warming trends are discussed. (CW)

  13. Trends and Issues.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Orey, Michael; Molenda, Michael; Sullivan, Michael; Klein, James D.; Brinkerfhoff, Jonathan; Koroghlanian, Carol; Moore, D. Michael; Lockee, Barbara B.; Burton, John K.; Liu, Y.; Emerson, John D.; Boes, Lisa; Mosteller, Frederick; Ely, Donald P.; Belanger, Yvonne; Ellsworth, James B.; Lowe, Carrie A.; Russell, Shayne; Thomas, Lajeane; Richey, Rita C.; Earle, Rodney S.

    2002-01-01

    The articles in this section of "Educational Media and Technology Yearbook" identify current trends and issues in the field of instructional technology. Two subsections are also included: ERIC Digests, which are reprints of ERIC reports available on the Internet, and a subsection on a variety of standards that emerged during the past…

  14. Historical Trends in Childlessness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rowland, Donald T.

    2007-01-01

    Changes in the rates of childlessness over time are explored using European, Australian, American, and Japanese data from censuses, national registers, and large-scale surveys. The trends are remarkably similar across the countries for which data are available: a peak in childlessness rates for the 1880-1910 birth cohorts, a more or less…

  15. Language Trends 2010 Secondary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    CILT, the National Centre for Languages, 2010

    2010-01-01

    The Language Trends survey is run jointly each year by CILT, the National Centre for Languages, the Association for Language Learning (ALL) and the Independent Schools Modern Languages Association (ISMLA). In this period of rapid change and policy development, it is vital to have an up to date picture of current issues for languages. Therefore,…

  16. Evaluation of Project Trend.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Unco, Inc., Washington, DC.

    This report is a descriptive evaluation of the five pilot sites of Project TREND (Targeting Resources on the Educational Needs of the Disadvantaged). The five Local Education Agency (LEA) pilot sites are the educational systems of: (1) Akron, Ohio; (2) El Paso, Texas; (3) Newark, New Jersey; (4) Portland, Oregon; and, (5) San Jose (Unified),…

  17. Trends in Biomedical Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peppas, Nicholas A.; Mallinson, Richard G.

    1982-01-01

    An analysis of trends in biomedical education within chemical education is presented. Data used for the analysis included: type/level of course, subjects taught, and textbook preferences. Results among others of the 1980 survey indicate that 28 out of 79 schools responding offer at least one course in biomedical engineering. (JN)

  18. Children's Books: Current Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nist, Joan Stidham

    A major trend in children's literature is the growing academic recognition of the field--indicated by the large number of new texts that have been published since 1975. Scholarly periodicals in the field have likewise grown since the 1970s. Library science, elementary education and English literature have fostered the development of children's…

  19. Technological trends in automobiles.

    PubMed

    Horton, E J; Compton, W D

    1984-08-10

    Current technological trends in the automotive industry reflect many diverse disciplines. Electronics and microprocessors, new engine transmission concepts, composite and ceramic materials, and computer-aided design and manufacture will combine to make possible the creation of advanced automobiles offering outstanding quality, fuel economy, and performance. A projected "average" vehicle of the 1990's is described to illustrate the application of these new concepts.

  20. Marketing for Camp Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biddle, Alicia

    1998-01-01

    To effectively market a camp, current trends and issues must be considered: specialty programming, the Americans With Disabilities Act, competing recreational programs, changes in the school year, programming for seniors, and accountability. Camps should have a marketing strategy that includes public relations, a marketing plan, a pricing…

  1. Popularity, similarity, and the network extraversion bias.

    PubMed

    Feiler, Daniel C; Kleinbaum, Adam M

    2015-05-01

    Using the emergent friendship network of an incoming cohort of students in an M.B.A. program, we examined the role of extraversion in shaping social networks. Extraversion has two important implications for the emergence of network ties: a popularity effect, in which extraverts accumulate more friends than introverts do, and a homophily effect, in which the more similar are two people's levels of extraversion, the more likely they are to become friends. These effects result in a systematic network extraversion bias, in which people's social networks will tend to be overpopulated with extraverts and underpopulated with introverts. Moreover, the most extraverted people have the greatest network extraversion bias, and the most introverted people have the least network extraversion bias. Our finding that social networks were systematically misrepresentative of the broader social environment raises questions about whether there is a societal bias toward believing other people are more extraverted than they actually are and whether introverts are better socially calibrated than extraverts.

  2. Exchange bias studied with polarized neutron reflectivity

    SciTech Connect

    te Velthuis, S. G. E.

    2000-01-05

    The role of Polarized Neutron Reflectivity (PNR) for studying natural and synthetic exchange biased systems is illustrated. For a partially oxidized thin film of Co, cycling of the magnetic field causes a considerable reduction of the bias, which the onset of diffuse neutron scattering shows to be due to the loosening of the ferromagnetic domains. On the other hand, PNR measurements of a model exchange bias junction consisting of an n-layered Fe/Cr antiferromagnetic (AF) superlattice coupled with an m-layered Fe/Cr ferromagnetic (F) superlattice confirm the predicted collinear magnetization in the two superlattices. The two magnetized states of the F (along or opposite to the bias field) differ only in the relative orientation of the F and adjacent AF layer. The possibility of reading clearly the magnetic state at the interface pinpoints the commanding role that PNR is having in solving this intriguing problem.

  3. Correcting the bias against interdisciplinary research.

    PubMed

    Shapiro, Ehud

    2014-04-01

    When making decisions about funding and jobs the scientific community should recognise that most of the tools used to evaluate scientific excellence are biased in favour of established disciplines and against interdisciplinary research.

  4. Implicit Social Biases in People with Autism

    PubMed Central

    Birmingham, Elina; Stanley, Damian; Nair, Remya; Adolphs, Ralph

    2015-01-01

    Implicit social biases are ubiquitous and are known to influence social behavior. A core diagnostic criterion of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is abnormal social behavior. Here we investigated the extent to which individuals with ASD might show a specific attenuation of implicit social biases, using the Implicit Association Test (IAT) across Social (gender, race) and Nonsocial (flowers/insect, shoes) categories. High-functioning adults with ASD showed intact but reduced IAT effects relative to healthy controls. Importantly, we observed no selective attenuation of implicit social (vs. nonsocial) biases in our ASD population. To extend these results, we collected data from a large online sample of the general population, and explored correlations between autistic traits and IAT effects. No associations were found between autistic traits and IAT effects for any of the categories tested in our online sample. Taken together, these results suggest that implicit social biases, as measured by the IAT, are largely intact in ASD. PMID:26386014

  5. Galaxy bias and primordial non-Gaussianity

    SciTech Connect

    Assassi, Valentin; Baumann, Daniel; Schmidt, Fabian E-mail: D.D.Baumann@uva.nl

    2015-12-01

    We present a systematic study of galaxy biasing in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity. For a large class of non-Gaussian initial conditions, we define a general bias expansion and prove that it is closed under renormalization, thereby showing that the basis of operators in the expansion is complete. We then study the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity on the statistics of galaxies. We show that the equivalence principle enforces a relation between the scale-dependent bias in the galaxy power spectrum and that in the dipolar part of the bispectrum. This provides a powerful consistency check to confirm the primordial origin of any observed scale-dependent bias. Finally, we also discuss the imprints of anisotropic non-Gaussianity as motivated by recent studies of higher-spin fields during inflation.

  6. Affective forecasting bias in preschool children.

    PubMed

    Gautam, Shalini; Bulley, Adam; von Hippel, William; Suddendorf, Thomas

    2017-03-10

    Adults are capable of predicting their emotional reactions to possible future events. Nevertheless, they systematically overestimate the intensity of their future emotional reactions relative to how they feel when these events actually occur. The developmental origin of this "intensity bias" has not yet been examined. Two studies were conducted to test the intensity bias in preschool children. In the first study, 5-year-olds (N=30) predicted how they would feel if they won or lost various games. Comparisons with subsequent self-reported feelings indicated that participants overestimated how sad they would feel to lose the games but did not overestimate their happiness from winning. The second study replicated this effect in another sample of 5-year-olds (n=34) and also found evidence of an intensity bias in 4-year-olds (n=30). These findings provide the first evidence of a negative intensity bias in affective forecasting among young children.

  7. FIP bias in a sigmoidal active region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baker, D.; Brooks, D. H.; Démoulin, P.; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Green, L. M.; Steed, K.; Carlyle, J.

    2014-01-01

    We investigate first ionization potential (FIP) bias levels in an anemone active region (AR) - coronal hole (CH) complex using an abundance map derived from Hinode/EIS spectra. The detailed, spatially resolved abundance map has a large field of view covering 359'' × 485''. Plasma with high FIP bias, or coronal abundances, is concentrated at the footpoints of the AR loops whereas the surrounding CH has a low FIP bias, ~1, i.e. photospheric abundances. A channel of low FIP bias is located along the AR's main polarity inversion line containing a filament where ongoing flux cancellation is observed, indicating a bald patch magnetic topology characteristic of a sigmoid/flux rope configuration.

  8. Gender bias in the force concept inventory?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dietz, R. D.; Pearson, R. H.; Semak, M. R.; Willis, C. W.

    2012-02-01

    Could the well-established fact that males tend to score higher than females on the Force Concept Inventory (FCI) be due to gender bias in the questions? The eventual answer to the question hinges on the definition of bias. We assert that a question is biased only if a factor other than ability (in this case gender) affects the likelihood that a student will answer the question correctly. The statistical technique of differential item functioning allows us to control for ability in our analysis of student performance on each of the thirty FCI questions. This method uses the total score on the FCI as the measure of ability. We conclude that the evidence for gender bias in the FCI questions is marginal at best.

  9. Full Electric Field Control of Exchange Bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Stephen

    2014-03-01

    Exchange bias is the shift of a magnetic hysteresis curve due to interfacial magnetic coupling between a ferromagnet (FM) and an antiferromagnet (AFM). This ubiquitous effect has long been used in the electronics industry to bias the magnetization of FM layers in magnetic devices. Its continued understanding is of critical importance to advance the development of future high-density magnetic storage media and other novel magnetic devices. However, due to the technological limitations of manipulating and observing an atomically thin interface, exchange bias is not well understood. In this talk we present a multiferroic field effect device with BiFeO3 (BFO) (antiferromagnetic-ferroelectric) as the gate dielectric and La0.7Sr0.3MnO3 (LSMO) (ferromagnetic) as the conducting channel, which exhibits the direct, bipolar electric control of exchange bias. Here the magnetic states at the AFM/FM interface can be directly manipulated with electric fields and the results can be observed as a change in exchange bias polarity and magnitude. Control of exchange bias at this level has significant implications because it represents a form of electric field control of magnetism and may potentially offer a route toward the eventual full electric field control of magnetization. In this device, exchange bias is reversibly switched between two stable states with opposite exchange bias polarities upon ferroelectric poling of the BFO. No field cooling, temperature cycling, or additional applied magnetic or electric field beyond BFO poling is needed for this bipolar modulation effect. Detailed temperature dependent measurements and a model will be presented which will attribute this effect to the coupled antiferromagnetic-ferroelectric order in BFO along with the modulation of interfacial exchange interactions due to ionic displacement of Fe3+ in BFO relative to Mn3 + / 4 + in LSMO.

  10. Antiferromagnetic spin flop and exchange bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nogués, J.; Morellon, L.; Leighton, C.; Ibarra, M. R.; Schuller, Ivan K.

    2000-03-01

    The effect of the antiferromagnetic spin flop on exchange bias has been investigated in antiferromagnetic (MnF2)-ferromagnetic (Fe) bilayers. Cooling and measuring in fields larger than the antiferromagnetic spin-flop field, HSF, causes an irreversible reduction of the magnitude of the exchange bias field, HE. This indicates that, contrary to what is normally assumed, the interface spin structure does not remain ``frozen in'' below TN if large enough fields are applied.

  11. How Specific Is the Shape Bias?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Diesendruck, Gil; Bloom, Paul

    2003-01-01

    Three studies explored whether children's tendency to extend object names on the basis of sameness of shape (shape bias) is specific to naming. Findings indicated that 2- and 3-year-olds showed shape bias both when asked to extend a novel name and when asked to select an object of the same kind as a target object; 3-year-olds also showed shape…

  12. Questions of bias in climate models

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Wigley, Tom M.; Meinshausen, Malte; Rogelj, Joeri

    2014-08-27

    The recent work by Shindell usefully contributes to the debate over estimating climate sensitivity by highlighting an important aspect of the climate system: that climate forcings that occur over land result in a more rapid temperature response than forcings that are distributed more uniformly over the globe. While, as noted in this work, simple climate models may be biased by assuming the same temperature response for all forcing agents, the implication that the MAGICC model is biased in this way is not correct.

  13. Implicit bias, awareness and imperfect cognitions.

    PubMed

    Holroyd, Jules

    2015-05-01

    Are individuals responsible for behaviour that is implicitly biased? Implicitly biased actions are those which manifest the distorting influence of implicit associations. That they express these 'implicit' features of our cognitive and motivational make up has been appealed to in support of the claim that, because individuals lack the relevant awareness of their morally problematic discriminatory behaviour, they are not responsible for behaving in ways that manifest implicit bias. However, the claim that such influences are implicit is, in fact, not straightforwardly related to the claim that individuals lack awareness of the morally problematic dimensions of their behaviour. Nor is it clear that lack of awareness does absolve from responsibility. This may depend on whether individuals culpably fail to know something that they should know. I propose that an answer to this question, in turn, depends on whether other imperfect cognitions are implicated in any lack of the relevant kind of awareness. In this paper I clarify our understanding of 'implicitly biased actions' and then argue that there are three different dimensions of awareness that might be at issue in the claim that individuals lack awareness of implicit bias. Having identified the relevant sense of awareness I argue that only one of these senses is defensibly incorporated into a condition for responsibility, rejecting recent arguments from Washington & Kelly for an 'externalist' epistemic condition. Having identified what individuals should - and can - know about their implicitly biased actions, I turn to the question of whether failures to know this are culpable. This brings us to consider the role of implicit biases in relation to other imperfect cognitions. I conclude that responsibility for implicitly biased actions may depend on answers to further questions about their relationship to other imperfect cognitions.

  14. RF cavities with transversely biased ferrite tuning

    SciTech Connect

    Smythe, W.R.; Brophy, T.G.; Carlini, R.D.; Friedrichs, C.C.; Grisham, D.L.; Spalek, G.; Wilkerson, L.C.

    1985-10-01

    Earley et al. suggested that ferrite tuned rf cavities have lower ferrite power dissipation if the ferrite bias field is perpendicular rather than parallel to the rf magnetic field. A 50-84 MHz cavity has been constructed in which ferrite can be biased either way. Low power measurements of six microwave ferrites show that the magnetic Q's of these ferrites under perpendicular bias are much higher than under parallel bias, and that the high Q region extends over a much wider range of rf permeability. TDK Y-5 ferrite was found to have a magnetic Q of 10,800, 4,800, 1,200 and 129 at rf permeabilities of 1.2, 2.4, 3.7 and 4.5, respectively. Measurements of perpendicularly biased ferrite at various power levels were made in a coaxial line cavity. The Q of Y-5 ferrite was found to decrease by less than a factor of 2 as the power density in the ferrite was increased to 1.3 W/cmT. A cavity design for a 6 GeV, high current, rapid cycling synchrotron using transversely biased ferrite tuning is described.

  15. Investigating bias in squared regression structure coefficients

    PubMed Central

    Nimon, Kim F.; Zientek, Linda R.; Thompson, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    The importance of structure coefficients and analogs of regression weights for analysis within the general linear model (GLM) has been well-documented. The purpose of this study was to investigate bias in squared structure coefficients in the context of multiple regression and to determine if a formula that had been shown to correct for bias in squared Pearson correlation coefficients and coefficients of determination could be used to correct for bias in squared regression structure coefficients. Using data from a Monte Carlo simulation, this study found that squared regression structure coefficients corrected with Pratt's formula produced less biased estimates and might be more accurate and stable estimates of population squared regression structure coefficients than estimates with no such corrections. While our findings are in line with prior literature that identified multicollinearity as a predictor of bias in squared regression structure coefficients but not coefficients of determination, the findings from this study are unique in that the level of predictive power, number of predictors, and sample size were also observed to contribute bias in squared regression structure coefficients. PMID:26217273

  16. Investigating bias in squared regression structure coefficients.

    PubMed

    Nimon, Kim F; Zientek, Linda R; Thompson, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    The importance of structure coefficients and analogs of regression weights for analysis within the general linear model (GLM) has been well-documented. The purpose of this study was to investigate bias in squared structure coefficients in the context of multiple regression and to determine if a formula that had been shown to correct for bias in squared Pearson correlation coefficients and coefficients of determination could be used to correct for bias in squared regression structure coefficients. Using data from a Monte Carlo simulation, this study found that squared regression structure coefficients corrected with Pratt's formula produced less biased estimates and might be more accurate and stable estimates of population squared regression structure coefficients than estimates with no such corrections. While our findings are in line with prior literature that identified multicollinearity as a predictor of bias in squared regression structure coefficients but not coefficients of determination, the findings from this study are unique in that the level of predictive power, number of predictors, and sample size were also observed to contribute bias in squared regression structure coefficients.

  17. Confounding and bias in the attributable fraction.

    PubMed

    Darrow, Lyndsey A; Steenland, N Kyle

    2011-01-01

    Inappropriate methods are frequently used to calculate the population attributable fraction (AF) for a given exposure of interest. This commonly occurs when authors use adjusted relative risks (RRs) reported in the literature (the "source" data), without access to the original data. In this analysis, we examine the relationship between the direction and magnitude of confounding in the source data and resulting bias in the attributable fraction when incorrect methods are used. We assess confounding by the confounding risk ratio, which is the ratio of the crude RR to the adjusted RR. We assess bias in the AF by the ratio of the incorrectly calculated AF to the correctly calculated AF. Using generated data, we examine the relationship between confounding and AF bias under various scenarios of population prevalence of exposure and strength of the exposure-disease association. For confounding risk ratios greater than 1.0 (ie, crude RR >adjusted RR), the AF is underestimated; for confounding risk ratios less than 1.0 (ie, crude RR Bias in the AF increases as the magnitude of the confounding increases, and is dependent on the prevalence of exposure in the total population, with bias greatest at the lowest prevalence of exposure. Bias in the AF is also higher when the exposure-disease association is weaker. Results of these analyses can assist interpretation of incorrectly calculated attributable fraction estimates commonly reported in the epidemiologic literature.

  18. Removing Diurnal Cycle Contamination in Satellite-Derived Tropospheric Temperatures: Understanding Tropical Tropospheric Trend Discrepancies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Tropical mid-tropospheric temperature (TMT) time series have been constructed by several independent research teams using satellite microwave sounding unit (MSU) measurements beginning in 1978 and advanced MSU (AMSU) measurements since 1998. Despite careful efforts to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements, tropical TMT trends disagree by a factor of three even though each analysis uses the same basic data. Previous studies suggest that the discrepancy in tropical TMT temperature trends is largely caused by differences in both the NOAA-9 warm target factor and diurnal drift corrections used by various teams to homogenize the MSU/AMSU measurements. This work introduces a new observationally-based method for removing biases related to satellite diurnal drift. The method relies on minimizing inter-satellite and inter-node drifts by subtracting out a common diurnal cycle determined via linear regression. It is demonstrated that this method is effective at removing intersatellite biases and biases between the ascending (PM) and descending (AM) node of individual satellites in the TMT time series. After TMT bias correction, the ratio of tropical tropospheric temperature trends relative to surface temperature trends is in accord with the ratio from global climate models. It is shown that bias corrections for diurnal drift based on a climate model produce tropical trends very similar to those from the observationally-based correction, with a trend differences smaller than 0.02 K decade-1. Differences among various TMT datasets are explored further. Tropical trends from this work are comparable to those from the Remote Sensing System (RSS) and NOAA datasets despite small differences. Larger differences between this work and UAH are attributed to differences in the treatment of the NOAA-9 target factor and the UAH diurnal cycle correction.

  19. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Tilmes, Simone

    2016-06-01

    We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  20. Interpreting Space-Based Trends in Carbon Monoxide with Multiple Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strode, Sarah A.; Worden, Helen M.; Damon, Megan; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Emmons, Louisa K.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Rodriguez, Jose M.; Strahan, Susan E.; Tilmes, Simone

    2016-01-01

    We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of timedependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI), reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000-2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model-observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  1. Productive trends in India's energy intensive industries

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Sanstad, A.; Mongia, P.; Schumacher, K.

    1999-07-01

    This paper reports on an analysis of productivity growth and input trends in six energy intensive sectors of the Indian economy, using growth accounting and econometric methods. The econometric work estimates rates and factor price biases of technological change using a translog production model with an explicit relationship defined for technological change. Estimates of own-price responses indicate that raising energy prices would be an effective carbon abatement policy for India. At the same time, the authors results suggest that, as with previous findings on the US economy, such policies in India could have negative long run effects on productivity in these sectors. Inter-input substitution possibilities are relatively weak, so that such policies might have negative short and medium term effects on sectoral growth. The authors study provides information relevant for the analysis of costs and benefits of carbon abatement policies applied to India and thus contributes to the emerging body of modeling and analysis of global climate policy.

  2. Future Trends in Children's Web Pages: Probing Hidden Biases for Information Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurubacak, Gulsun

    2007-01-01

    As global digital communication continues to flourish, Children's Web pages become more critical for children to realize not only the surface but also breadth and deeper meanings in presenting these milieus. These pages not only are very diverse and complex but also enable intense communication across social, cultural and political restrictions…

  3. Future Trends in Chlldren's Web Pages: Probing Hidden Biases for Information Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kurubacak, Gulsun

    2007-01-01

    As global digital communication continues to flourish, Children's Web pages become more critical for children to realize not only the surface but also breadth and deeper meanings in presenting these milieus. These pages not only are very diverse and complex but also enable intense communication across social, cultural and political restrictions…

  4. Bias to negative emotions: a depression state-dependent marker in adolescent major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Maalouf, Fadi T; Clark, Luke; Tavitian, Lucy; Sahakian, Barbara J; Brent, David; Phillips, Mary L

    2012-06-30

    The aim of the current research was to examine for the first time the extent to which bias to negative emotions in an inhibitory control paradigm is a state or trait marker in major depressive disorder (MDD) in adolescents. We administered the affective go/no go task which measures the ability to switch attention to or away from positive or negative emotional stimuli to 40 adolescents with MDD (20 in acute episode (MDDa) and 20 in remission (MDDr)) and 17 healthy controls (HC). MDDa were significantly faster on the shift to negative target blocks as compared to shift to positive target blocks while HC and MDDr displayed the opposite pattern as measured by an "emotional bias index" (EBI=latency (shift to negative targets)-latency (shift to positive targets)). There was also a trend for an effect of group on commission errors, suggesting more impulsive responding by MDDa than both MDDr and HC independently of stimulus valence throughout the task. Negative bias was not associated with depression severity or medication status. In conclusion, bias to negative emotional stimuli appears to be present in the acute stage of MDD and absent in remission suggesting that it is a depression state-specific marker of MDD in adolescents. Latency emerges as a better proxy of negative bias than commission errors and accuracy on this inhibitory control task in adolescents with MDD.

  5. Trending Cardiovascular Nutrition Controversies.

    PubMed

    Freeman, Andrew M; Morris, Pamela B; Barnard, Neal; Esselstyn, Caldwell B; Ros, Emilio; Agatston, Arthur; Devries, Stephen; O'Keefe, James; Miller, Michael; Ornish, Dean; Williams, Kim; Kris-Etherton, Penny

    2017-03-07

    The potential cardiovascular benefits of several trending foods and dietary patterns are still incompletely understood, and nutritional science continues to evolve. However, in the meantime, a number of controversial dietary patterns, foods, and nutrients have received significant media exposure and are mired by hype. This review addresses some of the more popular foods and dietary patterns that are promoted for cardiovascular health to provide clinicians with accurate information for patient discussions in the clinical setting.

  6. Meta-assessment of bias in science.

    PubMed

    Fanelli, Daniele; Costas, Rodrigo; Ioannidis, John P A

    2017-04-04

    Numerous biases are believed to affect the scientific literature, but their actual prevalence across disciplines is unknown. To gain a comprehensive picture of the potential imprint of bias in science, we probed for the most commonly postulated bias-related patterns and risk factors, in a large random sample of meta-analyses taken from all disciplines. The magnitude of these biases varied widely across fields and was overall relatively small. However, we consistently observed a significant risk of small, early, and highly cited studies to overestimate effects and of studies not published in peer-reviewed journals to underestimate them. We also found at least partial confirmation of previous evidence suggesting that US studies and early studies might report more extreme effects, although these effects were smaller and more heterogeneously distributed across meta-analyses and disciplines. Authors publishing at high rates and receiving many citations were, overall, not at greater risk of bias. However, effect sizes were likely to be overestimated by early-career researchers, those working in small or long-distance collaborations, and those responsible for scientific misconduct, supporting hypotheses that connect bias to situational factors, lack of mutual control, and individual integrity. Some of these patterns and risk factors might have modestly increased in intensity over time, particularly in the social sciences. Our findings suggest that, besides one being routinely cautious that published small, highly-cited, and earlier studies may yield inflated results, the feasibility and costs of interventions to attenuate biases in the literature might need to be discussed on a discipline-specific and topic-specific basis.

  7. Ozone and temperature trends

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stolarski, Richard S.; Fioletov, Vitali; Bishop, Lane; Godin, Sophie; Bojkov, Rumen D.; Kirchhoff, Volker; Chanin, Marie-Lise; Zawodny, Joseph M.; Zerefos, Christos S.; Chu, William

    1991-01-01

    An update of the extensive reviews of the state of knowledge of measured ozone trends published in the Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel is presented. The update contains a review of progress since these reports, including reviewing of the ozone records, in most cases through March 1991. Also included are some new, unpublished reanalyses of these records including a complete reevaluation of 29 stations located in the former Soviet Union. The major new advance in knowledge of the measured ozone trend is the existence of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAG) instruments. These confirm many of the findings, originally derived from the Dobson record, concerning northern mid-latitude changes in ozone. We now have results from several instruments, whereas the previously reported changes were dependent on the calibration of a single instrument. This update will compare the ozone records from many different instruments to determine whether or not they provide a consistent picture of the ozone change that has occurred in the atmosphere. The update also briefly considers the problem of stratospheric temperature change. As in previous reports, this problem received significantly less attention, and the report is not nearly as complete. This area needs more attention in the future.

  8. On the relative independence of thinking biases and cognitive ability.

    PubMed

    Stanovich, Keith E; West, Richard F

    2008-04-01

    In 7 different studies, the authors observed that a large number of thinking biases are uncorrelated with cognitive ability. These thinking biases include some of the most classic and well-studied biases in the heuristics and biases literature, including the conjunction effect, framing effects, anchoring effects, outcome bias, base-rate neglect, "less is more" effects, affect biases, omission bias, myside bias, sunk-cost effect, and certainty effects that violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In a further experiment, the authors nonetheless showed that cognitive ability does correlate with the tendency to avoid some rational thinking biases, specifically the tendency to display denominator neglect, probability matching rather than maximizing, belief bias, and matching bias on the 4-card selection task. The authors present a framework for predicting when cognitive ability will and will not correlate with a rational thinking tendency.

  9. Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gray, Brian R.; Lyubchich, Vyacheslav; Gel, Yulia R.; Rogala, James T.; Robertson, Dale M.; Wei, Xiaoqiao

    2015-01-01

    Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.

  10. Graphene nanoribbon devices at high bias.

    PubMed

    Han, Melinda Y; Kim, Philip

    2014-01-01

    We present the electron transport in graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) at high electric bias conduction. When graphene is patterned into a few tens of nanometer width of a ribbon shape, the carriers are confined to a quasi-one-dimensional (1D) system. Combining with the disorders in the system, this quantum confinement can lead into a transport gap in the energy spectrum of the GNRs. Similar to CNTs, this gap depends on the width of the GNR. In this review, we examine the electronic properties of lithographically fabricated GNRs, focusing on the high bias transport characteristics of GNRs as a function of density tuned by a gate voltage. We investigate the transport behavior of devices biased up to a few volts, a regime more relevant for electronics applications. We find that the high bias transport behavior in this limit can be described by hot electron scattered by the surface phonon emission, leading to a carrier velocity saturation. We also showed an enhanced current saturation effect in the GNRs with an efficient gate coupling. This effect results from the introduction of the charge neutrality point into the channel, and is similar to pinch-off in MOSFET devices. We also observe that heating effects in graphene at high bias are significant.

  11. Graphene nanoribbon devices at high bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Melinda Y.; Kim, Philip

    2014-02-01

    We present the electron transport in graphene nanoribbons (GNRs) at high electric bias conduction. When graphene is patterned into a few tens of nanometer width of a ribbon shape, the carriers are confined to a quasi-one-dimensional (1D) system. Combining with the disorders in the system, this quantum confinement can lead into a transport gap in the energy spectrum of the GNRs. Similar to CNTs, this gap depends on the width of the GNR. In this review, we examine the electronic properties of lithographically fabricated GNRs, focusing on the high bias transport characteristics of GNRs as a function of density tuned by a gate voltage. We investigate the transport behavior of devices biased up to a few volts, a regime more relevant for electronics applications. We find that the high bias transport behavior in this limit can be described by hot electron scattered by the surface phonon emission, leading to a carrier velocity saturation. We also showed an enhanced current saturation effect in the GNRs with an efficient gate coupling. This effect results from the introduction of the charge neutrality point into the channel, and is similar to pinch-off in MOSFET devices. We also observe that heating effects in graphene at high bias are significant.

  12. Random walk with chaotically driven bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Song-Ju; Naruse, Makoto; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Akimoto, Takuma

    2016-12-01

    We investigate two types of random walks with a fluctuating probability (bias) in which the random walker jumps to the right. One is a ‘time-quenched framework’ using bias time series such as periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic time series (chaotically driven bias). The other is a ‘time-annealed framework’ using the fluctuating bias generated by a stochastic process, which is not quenched in time. We show that the diffusive properties in the time-quenched framework can be characterised by the ensemble average of the time-averaged variance (ETVAR), whereas the ensemble average of the time-averaged mean square displacement (ETMSD) fails to capture the diffusion, even when the total bias is zero. We demonstrate that the ETVAR increases linearly with time, and the diffusion coefficient can be estimated by the time average of the local diffusion coefficient. In the time-annealed framework, we analytically and numerically show normal diffusion and superdiffusion, similar to the Lévy walk. Our findings will lead to new developments in information and communication technologies, such as efficient energy transfer for information propagation and quick solution searching.

  13. Reducing environmental bias when measuring natural selection.

    PubMed

    Scheiner, Samuel M; Donohue, Kathleen; Dorn, Lisa A; Mazer, Susan J; Wolfe, Lorne M

    2002-11-01

    Crucial to understanding the process of natural selection is characterizing phenotypic selection. Measures of phenotypic selection can be biased by environmental variation among individuals that causes a spurious correlation between a trait and fitness. One solution is analyzing genotypic data, rather than phenotypic data. Genotypic data, however, are difficult to gather, can be gathered from few species, and typically have low statistical power. Environmental correlations may act through traits other than through fitness itself. A path analytic framework, which includes measures of such traits, may reduce environmental bias in estimates of selection coefficients. We tested the efficacy of path analysis to reduce bias by re-analyzing three experiments where both phenotypic and genotypic data were available. All three consisted of plant species (Impatiens capensis, Arabidopsis thaliana, and Raphanus sativus) grown in experimental plots or the greenhouse. We found that selection coefficients estimated by path analysis using phenotypic data were highly correlated with those based on genotypic data with little systematic bias in estimating the strength of selection. Although not a panacea, using path analysis can substantially reduce environmental biases in estimates of selection coefficients. Such confidence in phenotypic selection estimates is critical for progress in the study of natural selection.

  14. Concurrent bias correction in hemodynamic data assimilation.

    PubMed

    Hu, Zhenghui; Liu, Huafeng; Shi, Pengcheng

    2012-10-01

    Low-frequency drift in fMRI datasets can be caused by various sources and are generally not of interest in a conventional task-based fMRI experiment. This feature complicates the assimilation approach that is always under specific assumption on statistics of system uncertainties. In this paper, we present a novel approach to the assimilation of nonlinear hemodynamic system with stochastic biased noise. By treating the drift variation as a random-walk process, the assimilation problem was translated into the identification of a nonlinear system in the presence of time-varying bias. We developed a bias aware unscented Kalman estimator to efficiently handle this problem. In this framework, the estimates of bias-free states and drift are separately carried out in two parallel filters, the optimal estimates of the system states then are corrected from bias-free states with drift estimates. The approach can simultaneously deal with the fMRI responses and drift in an assimilation cycle in an on-line fashion. It makes no assumptions of the structure and statistics of the drift, thereby is particularly suited for fMRI imaging where the formulation of real drift remains difficult to acquire. Experiments with synthetic data and real fMRI data are performed to demonstrate feasibility of our approach and to explore its potential advantages over classic polynomial approach. Moreover, we include the comparison of the variability of observables from the scanner and of normalized signal used in assimilation procedure in Appendix.

  15. When do children exhibit a "yes" bias?

    PubMed

    Okanda, Mako; Itakura, Shoji

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated whether one hundred and thirty-five 3- to 6-year-old children exhibit a yes bias to various yes-no questions and whether their knowledge status affects the production of a yes bias. Three-year-olds exhibited a yes bias to all yes-no questions such as preference-object and knowledge-object questions pertaining to objects, and knowledge-face questions pertaining to facial expressions. Four-year-olds tended to say "yes" only to knowledge-object questions. Five-year-olds did not show any strong response tendency. Six-year-olds exhibited a nay-saying bias to knowledge-face questions. Also, 3-year-olds could indicate the correct option when asked questions with 2 response options. It suggested that 3-year-olds tended to inappropriately say "yes" to yes-no questions, although they knew the answers to the questions. The mechanism of a yes bias was discussed.

  16. Who’s afraid of response bias?

    PubMed Central

    Peters, Megan A. K.; Ro, Tony; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    Response bias (or criterion) contamination is insidious in studies of consciousness: that observers report they do not see a stimulus may not mean they have absolutely no subjective experience; they may be giving such reports in relative terms in the context of other stimuli. Bias-free signal detection theoretic measures provide an excellent method for avoiding response bias confounds, and many researchers correctly adopt this approach. However, here we discuss how a fixation on avoiding criterion effects can also be misleading and detrimental to fruitful inquiry. In a recent paper, Balsdon and Azzopardi (Absolute and relative blindsight. Consciousness and Cognition 2015; 32:79–91.) claimed that contamination by response bias led to flawed findings in a previous report of “relative blindsight”. We argue that their criticisms are unfounded. They mistakenly assumed that others were trying (and failing) to apply their preferred methods to remove bias, when there was no such intention. They also dismissed meaningful findings because of their dependence on criterion, but such dismissal is problematic: many real effects necessarily depend on criterion. Unfortunately, these issues are technically tedious, and we discuss how they may have confused others to misapply psychophysical metrics and to draw questionable conclusions about the nature of TMS (transcranial magnetic stimulation)-induced blindsight. We conclude by discussing the conceptual importance of criterion effects in studies of conscious awareness: we need to treat them carefully, but not to avoid them without thinking. PMID:27499928

  17. Random walk with chaotically driven bias

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Song-Ju; Naruse, Makoto; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Akimoto, Takuma

    2016-01-01

    We investigate two types of random walks with a fluctuating probability (bias) in which the random walker jumps to the right. One is a ‘time-quenched framework’ using bias time series such as periodic, quasi-periodic, and chaotic time series (chaotically driven bias). The other is a ‘time-annealed framework’ using the fluctuating bias generated by a stochastic process, which is not quenched in time. We show that the diffusive properties in the time-quenched framework can be characterised by the ensemble average of the time-averaged variance (ETVAR), whereas the ensemble average of the time-averaged mean square displacement (ETMSD) fails to capture the diffusion, even when the total bias is zero. We demonstrate that the ETVAR increases linearly with time, and the diffusion coefficient can be estimated by the time average of the local diffusion coefficient. In the time-annealed framework, we analytically and numerically show normal diffusion and superdiffusion, similar to the Lévy walk. Our findings will lead to new developments in information and communication technologies, such as efficient energy transfer for information propagation and quick solution searching. PMID:27929091

  18. Auto Bias Control technique for optical 16-QAM transmitter with asymmetric bias dithering.

    PubMed

    Kawakami, Hiroto; Kobayashi, Takayuki; Yoshida, Eiji; Miyamoto, Yutaka

    2011-12-12

    ABC (Auto Bias Control) technique for QAM (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation) transmitter is demonstrated. 16-QAM (10G baud) is generated and controlled using a single IQ modulator and asymmetric bias dithering technique. Measured penalty is 0.3 dB.

  19. Expectancy biases in fear and anxiety and their link to biases in attention.

    PubMed

    Aue, Tatjana; Okon-Singer, Hadas

    2015-12-01

    Healthy individuals often exhibit prioritized processing of aversive information, as manifested in enhanced orientation of attention to threatening stimuli compared with neutral items. In contrast to this adaptive behavior, anxious, fearful, and phobic individuals show exaggerated attention biases to threat. In addition, they overestimate the likelihood of encountering their feared stimulus and the severity of the consequences; both are examples of expectancy biases. The co-occurrence of attention and expectancy biases in fear and anxiety raises the question about causal influences. Herein, we summarize findings related to expectancy biases in fear and anxiety, and their association with attention biases. We suggest that evidence calls for more comprehensive research strategies in the investigation of mutual influences between expectancy and attention biases, as well as their combined effects on fear and anxiety. Moreover, both types of bias need to be related to other types of distorted information processing commonly observed in fear and anxiety (e.g., memory and interpretation biases). Finally, we propose new research directions that may be worth considering in developing more effective treatments for anxiety disorders.

  20. Guidelines for the Creative Use of Biased Materials in a Non-Biased Way.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Women on Words and Images, Princeton, NJ.

    Intended to aid vocational education teachers in recognizing and dealing with sex biases contained in classroom materials, guidelines are offered to help the teacher deal with sexist language, roles, portrayal of personal traits, and illustrations. It is suggested, for example, that teachers point out sex-biased statements and discuss with…

  1. Biased diffusion in tubes of alternating diameter: Numerical study over a wide range of biasing force

    SciTech Connect

    Makhnovskii, Yurii A.; Berezhkovskii, Alexander M.; Antipov, Anatoly E.; Zitserman, Vladimir Yu.

    2015-11-07

    This paper is devoted to particle transport in a tube formed by alternating wide and narrow sections, in the presence of an external biasing force. The focus is on the effective transport coefficients—mobility and diffusivity, as functions of the biasing force and the geometric parameters of the tube. Dependences of the effective mobility and diffusivity on the tube geometric parameters are known in the limiting cases of no bias and strong bias. The approximations used to obtain these results are inapplicable at intermediate values of the biasing force. To bridge the two limits Brownian dynamics simulations were run to determine the transport coefficients at intermediate values of the force. The simulations were performed for a representative set of tube geometries over a wide range of the biasing force. They revealed that there is a range of the narrow section length, where the force dependence of the mobility has a maximum. In contrast, the diffusivity is a monotonically increasing function of the force. A simple formula is proposed, which reduces to the known dependences of the diffusivity on the tube geometric parameters in both limits of zero and strong bias. At intermediate values of the biasing force, the formula catches the diffusivity dependence on the narrow section length, if the radius of these sections is not too small.

  2. The impact of historical biases on the XBT-derived meridional overturning circulation estimates at 34°S

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goes, Marlos; Baringer, Molly; Goni, Gustavo

    2015-03-01

    An observational system based on high-density expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data has provided the longest record of the South Atlantic meridional overturning and heat transport estimates across 34°S. Measurement biases are a point of concern for the capability of an XBT system to capture long-term trends in volume and heat transports, and the impact of such biases on the meridional overturning estimates has never been quantified. In the present study, the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation and heat transport to uncertainties in XBT measurements is quantified under the framework of an eddy-resolving model simulation. Results show that XBT measurement biases after 2010 can translate into small meridional overturning errors on the order of 3% or 0.38 Sv (1Sv = 106 m3 s-1), and 0.025 PW (1 PW = 1015 W) or 8% of the meridional heat transport in the model. Historical XBT-derived trends in transport estimates across 34°S are stronger and statistically significant after the late 1990s, 0.3 Sv decade-1 and 0.02 PW decade-1. These trends are mostly due to the XBT linear depth bias, with smaller contributions associated with temperature and depth offsets from the historical record. Long-term trends calculated from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation reanalysis, estimated as 0.1 Sv/decade and 0.006 PW/decade, are 3 times smaller than the XBT-derived historical trends. Therefore, an adequate correction of historical XBT data is necessary for an early detection of trends in the meridional overturning circulation and heat transport.

  3. Screen bias detection and statistical minimisation from Western Mediterranean long temperature records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunet, M.; Asín, J.; Sigró, J.; Bañon, M.; García, F.; Aguilar, E.; Palenzuela, J. E.; Jones, P. D.

    2009-04-01

    The substitution of ancient shelters by modern Stevenson screens is thought to be the main cause of breaking homogeneity of long temperature records. It is also known that the so-called screen bias has induced a warm (cold) bias in long maximum (minimum) temperature records, whose magnitude is dependent on the latitude, on the moment of the year / day or on the meteorological conditions of the measurement (Parker, 1994). In the Mediterranean region, screen change is responsible for a strong positive bias in daily maximum temperature records (of about 1 °C at the annual scale, which shows a clear annual cycle with higher values in summer and lower in winter), meanwhile daily minimum temperatures show a small cold bias (about 0.2 °C, without seasonal differential behaviour) compared to the modern observations (e. g. Nichols et al., 1996; Brunet et al., 2008). Therefore, the use of the uncorrected data in assessments of long-term temperature variability and change will give negatively-biased results in term of trends, largely underestimating (slightly overestimating) maximum (minimum) long-term rate of temperature change, respectively; this bias would affect so to trend's estimation of the derived daily mean and diurnal temperature range series. Here we present an exploratory statistical analysis aimed at the minimisation of the "screen bias" from the affected Western Mediterranean air temperature time series. Our approach lies in the statistical analysis of about 6 years (5 years as calibration and 1 year as validation periods) of daily paired maximum and minimum temperature observations taken under a replicated ancient MONTSOURI shelter (one of the open stands used in the past to protect thermometers from direct or indirect radiation and wetting) and the modern STEVENSON screen installed in two experimental sites, the meteorological gardens of La Coruña and Murcia, Spain. These sites are representing the 2 most contrasted Mediterranean climate types: Oceanic

  4. Motion, identity and the bias toward agency

    PubMed Central

    Fields, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The well-documented human bias toward agency as a cause and therefore an explanation of observed events is typically attributed to evolutionary selection for a “social brain”. Based on a review of developmental and adult behavioral and neurocognitive data, it is argued that the bias toward agency is a result of the default human solution, developed during infancy, to the computational requirements of object re-identification over gaps in observation of more than a few seconds. If this model is correct, overriding the bias toward agency to construct mechanistic explanations of observed events requires structure-mapping inferences, implemented by the pre-motor action planning system, that replace agents with mechanisms as causes of unobserved changes in contextual or featural properties of objects. Experiments that would test this model are discussed. PMID:25191245

  5. Cosmology of biased discrete symmetry breaking

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gelmini, Graciela B.; Gleiser, Marcelo; Kolb, Edward W.

    1988-01-01

    The cosmological consequences of spontaneous breaking of an approximate discrete symmetry are studied. The breaking leads to formation of proto-domains of false and true vacuum separated by domain walls of thickness determined by the mass scale of the model. The cosmological evolution of the walls is extremely sensitive to the magnitude of the biasing; several scenarios are possible, depending on the interplay between the surface tension on the walls and the volume pressure from the biasing. Walls may disappear almost immediately after they form, or may live long enough to dominate the energy density of the Universe and cause power-law inflation. Limits are obtained on the biasing that characterizes each possible scenario.

  6. Epidemic spreading driven by biased random walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pu, Cunlai; Li, Siyuan; Yang, Jian

    2015-08-01

    Random walk is one of the basic mechanisms of many network-related applications. In this paper, we study the dynamics of epidemic spreading driven by biased random walks in complex networks. In our epidemic model, infected nodes send out infection packets by biased random walks to their neighbor nodes, and this causes the infection of susceptible nodes that receive the packets. Infected nodes recover from the infection at a constant rate λ, and will not be infected again after recovery. We obtain the largest instantaneous number of infected nodes and the largest number of ever-infected nodes respectively, by tuning the parameter α of the biased random walks. Simulation results on model and real-world networks show that spread of the epidemic becomes intense and widespread with increase of either delivery capacity of infected nodes, average node degree, or homogeneity of node degree distribution.

  7. Optimizing biased semiconductor superlattices for terahertz amplification

    SciTech Connect

    Lei, Xiaoli; Wang, Dawei; Wu, Zhaoxin; Dignam, M. M.

    2014-08-11

    Over the past 15 yr or more, researchers have been trying to achieve gain for electromagnetic fields in the terahertz frequency region using biased semiconductor superlattices, but with little success. In this work, we employ our model of the excitonic states in biased GaAs/Al{sub 0.3}Ga{sub 0.7}As semiconductor superlattices to find the optimal structures for amplification of terahertz radiation. In particular, we determine the optimum well width, barrier width, and bias field for terahertz fields with frequencies ranging from 1 to 4 terahertz. We find that gain coefficients on the order of 40 cm{sup −1} should be achievable over most of this frequency range.

  8. Recursive bias estimation for high dimensional smoothers

    SciTech Connect

    Hengartner, Nicolas W; Matzner-lober, Eric; Cornillon, Pierre - Andre

    2008-01-01

    In multivariate nonparametric analysis, sparseness of the covariates also called curse of dimensionality, forces one to use large smoothing parameters. This leads to biased smoothers. Instead of focusing on optimally selecting the smoothing parameter, we fix it to some reasonably large value to ensure an over-smoothing of the data. The resulting smoother has a small variance but a substantial bias. In this paper, we propose to iteratively correct the bias initial estimator by an estimate of the latter obtained by smoothing the residuals. We examine in detail the convergence of the iterated procedure for classical smoothers and relate our procedure to L{sub 2}-Boosting. We apply our method to simulated and real data and show that our method compares favorably with existing procedures.

  9. Perceptual bias for forward-facing motion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcbeath, Michael K.; Morikawa, Kazunori; Kaiser, Mary K.

    1992-01-01

    When an occluded horizontal row of shapes is shifted laterally, apparent motion can be experienced in either the leftward or the rightward direction. Four experiments provide evidence for a motion bias in the direction that shapes appear to face. The bias tended to be largest when directionality was specified geometrically (e.g., triangles), next largest when it was specified biologically (e.g., mice), and absent when it was specified calligraphically (e.g., letter R). The bias increased parametrically as a function of triangle pointedness and was consistent with the directional interpretation of an ambiguous duck-rabbit. The results support the existence of a cognitively specified forward-facing attribute that can influence experienced direction of motion.

  10. Gregorian calendar bias in monthly temperature databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cerveny, Randall S.; Svoma, Bohumil M.; Balling, Robert C.; Vose, Russell S.

    2008-10-01

    In this study we address a systematic bias in climate records that manifests due to the establishment of the Gregorian calendar system and exerts a statistically significant effect on monthly and seasonal temperature records. The addition of one extra day in February normally every fourth year produces a significant seasonal drift in the monthly values of that year in four major temperature datasets used in climate change analysis. The addition of a `leap year day' for the Northern Hemisphere creates statistically significantly colder months of July to December and, to a lesser degree warmer months of February to June than correspondingly common (non-leap year) months. The discovery of such a fundamental bias in four major temperature datasets used in climate analysis (and likely present in any dataset displaying strong annual cycles, e.g., U.S. streamflow data) indicates the continued need for detailed scrutiny of climate records for such biases.

  11. Tunable bands in biased multilayer epitaxial graphene.

    PubMed

    Williams, Michael D; Samarakoon, Duminda K; Hess, Dennis W; Wang, Xiao-Qian

    2012-04-28

    We have studied the electronic characteristics of multilayer epitaxial graphene under a perpendicularly applied electric bias. Ultraviolet photoemission spectroscopy measurements reveal that there is notable variation of the electronic density-of-states in valence bands near the Fermi level. Evolution of the electronic structure of graphite and rotational-stacked multilayer epitaxial graphene as a function of the applied electric bias is investigated using first-principles density-functional theory including interlayer van der Waals interactions. The experimental and theoretical results demonstrate that the tailoring of electronic band structure correlates with the interlayer coupling tuned by the applied bias. The implications of controllable electronic structure of rotationally fault-stacked epitaxial graphene grown on the C-face of SiC for future device applications are discussed.

  12. Information-processing bias in social phobia.

    PubMed

    Hirsch, Colette R; Clark, David M

    2004-11-01

    Social phobia is a persistent disorder that is unlikely to be maintained by avoidance alone. One reason for the enduring nature of social phobia may be the way individuals with the disorder process social information. It is important for those involved in social phobia to have an understanding of information-processing biases, because it has the potential to guide psychological interventions. In this review of social phobia, probability and cost estimates of social situations are examined, interpretive biases are evaluated and findings relating to memory and negative imagery are also reviewed. The clinical implications of social-phobia-related information-processing biases are discussed and possible avenues for future research are outlined.

  13. Attentional biases and vulnerability to depression.

    PubMed

    Gallardo Pérez, M; Baños Rivera, R M; Belloch Fuster, A; Ruipérez Rodríguez, M A

    1999-05-01

    This study was designed to examine selective processing of emotional information in depression. It focuses on possible attentional biases in depression, and whether such biases constitute a cognitive vulnerability factor to suffer from the disorder or, on the contrary, they reflect a feature associated exclusively with the clinical level of depression. 81 participants were included in the study: 15 with a diagnosis of Major Depression; 17 were diagnosed as Dysthymia; 11 participants scored over 18 in the Beck Depression Inventory (Beck, Rush, Shaw, & Emery, 1979); 15 participants, in whom a sad mood state was induced by an experimental mood induction (Velten technique + music, or biographical recall + music); and 23 participants as a normal-control group. All participants were presented with the emotional Stroop task. The data indicated that attentional bias was only present in the group of patients with Major Depression, so it does not seem to be a cognitive vulnerability factor for this disorder.

  14. Covariation bias in panic-prone individuals.

    PubMed

    Pauli, P; Montoya, P; Martz, G E

    1996-11-01

    Covariation estimates between fear-relevant (FR; emergency situations) or fear-irrelevant (FI; mushrooms and nudes) stimuli and an aversive outcome (electrical shock) were examined in 10 high-fear (panic-prone) and 10 low-fear respondents. When the relation between slide category and outcome was random (illusory correlation), only high-fear participants markedly overestimated the contingency between FR slides and shocks. However, when there was a high contingency of shocks following FR stimuli (83%) and a low contingency of shocks following FI stimuli (17%), the group difference vanished. Reversal of contingencies back to random induced a covariation bias for FR slides in high- and low-fear respondents. Results indicate that panic-prone respondents show a covariation bias for FR stimuli and that the experience of a high contingency between FR slides and aversive outcomes may foster such a covariation bias even in low-fear respondents.

  15. Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters.

    PubMed

    Love, Bradley C; Kopeć, Łukasz; Guest, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team's prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve).

  16. Optimism Bias in Fans and Sports Reporters

    PubMed Central

    Love, Bradley C.

    2015-01-01

    People are optimistic about their prospects relative to others. However, existing studies can be difficult to interpret because outcomes are not zero-sum. For example, one person avoiding cancer does not necessitate that another person develops cancer. Ideally, optimism bias would be evaluated within a closed formal system to establish with certainty the extent of the bias and the associated environmental factors, such that optimism bias is demonstrated when a population is internally inconsistent. Accordingly, we asked NFL fans to predict how many games teams they liked and disliked would win in the 2015 season. Fans, like ESPN reporters assigned to cover a team, were overly optimistic about their team’s prospects. The opposite pattern was found for teams that fans disliked. Optimism may flourish because year-to-year team results are marked by auto-correlation and regression to the group mean (i.e., good teams stay good, but bad teams improve). PMID:26352146

  17. Racial Bias in Perceptions of Others’ Pain

    PubMed Central

    Trawalter, Sophie; Hoffman, Kelly M.; Waytz, Adam

    2012-01-01

    The present work provides evidence that people assume a priori that Blacks feel less pain than do Whites. It also demonstrates that this bias is rooted in perceptions of status and the privilege (or hardship) status confers, not race per se. Archival data from the National Football League injury reports reveal that, relative to injured White players, injured Black players are deemed more likely to play in a subsequent game, possibly because people assume they feel less pain. Experiments 1–4 show that White and Black Americans–including registered nurses and nursing students–assume that Black people feel less pain than do White people. Finally, Experiments 5 and 6 provide evidence that this bias is rooted in perceptions of status, not race per se. Taken together, these data have important implications for understanding race-related biases and healthcare disparities. PMID:23155390

  18. Possible biases in heritability estimates from intraclass correlation.

    PubMed

    Ponzoni, R W; James, J W

    1978-01-01

    There is an inherent bias in intraclass correlations since the expectation of a ratio does not equal the ratio of expectations. A simple accurate approximation for this bias is derived, and it is found that the inherent bias is usually negligible. Selection of sires is known to bias half-sib heritability estimates, and appropriate formulae are given and discussed.

  19. On the power of the test for cluster bias.

    PubMed

    Jak, Suzanne; Oort, Frans J

    2015-11-01

    Cluster bias refers to measurement bias with respect to the clustering variable in multilevel data. The absence of cluster bias implies absence of bias with respect to any cluster-level (level 2) variable. The variables that possibly cause the bias do not have to be measured to test for cluster bias. Therefore, the test for cluster bias serves as a global test of measurement bias with respect to any level 2 variable. However, the validity of the global test depends on the Type I and Type II error rates of the test. We compare the performance of the test for cluster bias with the restricted factor analysis (RFA) test, which can be used if the variable that leads to measurement bias is measured. It appeared that the RFA test has considerably more power than the test for cluster bias. However, the false positive rates of the test for cluster bias were generally around the expected values, while the RFA test showed unacceptably high false positive rates in some conditions. We conclude that if no significant cluster bias is found, still significant bias with respect to a level 2 violator can be detected with an RFA model. Although the test for cluster bias is less powerful, an advantage of the test is that the cause of the bias does not need to be measured, or even known.

  20. Reappraisal Modulates Attentional Bias to Angry Faces

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Shin Ah; Kim, Hackjin; Kim, Sang Hee

    2016-01-01

    Heightened attentional bias to emotional information is one of the main characteristics of disorders related to emotion dysregulation such as anxiety, depression, and substance abuse. Although reappraisal, an emotion regulation strategy, is known to effectively modulate subjective experience of emotions, it remains unknown whether reappraisal can alter attentional biases to emotional information. In the current research, we investigated the influence of instruction-induced state reappraisal (Study 1) and trait reappraisal (Study 2) on attentional biases to happy and angry faces. In Study 1, healthy young women were recruited and randomly assigned to one of the three groups: up-, down-, and no-regulation. Participants were instructed to reappraise their emotions to increase and decrease emotional experience while viewing an emotionally negative film clip. Attentional bias was assessed with a dot-probe task with pictures of angry and happy facial expressions. In Study 2, a separate group of healthy young men and women participated. Participants’ trait reappraisal and suppression as well as state and trait anxiety were assessed. A dot-probe task was completed by all participants. Statistical tests in Study 1 revealed that participants who reappraised to decrease negative emotions while viewing an emotionally negative film clip had reduced attentional bias to subsequently presented angry faces compared to participants who reappraised to increase negative emotions. Multiple regression analyses in Study 2 revealed that trait reappraisal predicted slower orienting toward angry faces, whereas state anxiety predicted slower disengagement from angry faces. Interestingly, trait suppression predicted slower disengagement from happy faces. Taken together, these results suggest that both instruction-induced state reappraisal and trait reappraisal are linked to reduced attentional bias to negative information and contribute to better understanding of how everyday emotion

  1. Biasing of Capacitive Micromachined Ultrasonic Transducers.

    PubMed

    Caliano, Giosue; Matrone, Giulia; Savoia, Alessandro Stuart

    2017-02-01

    Capacitive micromachined ultrasonic transducers (CMUTs) represent an effective alternative to piezoelectric transducers for medical ultrasound imaging applications. They are microelectromechanical devices fabricated using silicon micromachining techniques, developed in the last two decades in many laboratories. The interest for this novel transducer technology relies on its full compatibility with standard integrated circuit technology that makes it possible to integrate on the same chip the transducers and the electronics, thus enabling the realization of extremely low-cost and high-performance devices, including both 1-D or 2-D arrays. Being capacitive transducers, CMUTs require a high bias voltage to be properly operated in pulse-echo imaging applications. The typical bias supply residual ripple of high-quality high-voltage (HV) generators is in the millivolt range, which is comparable with the amplitude of the received echo signals, and it is particularly difficult to minimize. The aim of this paper is to analyze the classical CMUT biasing circuits, highlighting the features of each one, and to propose two novel HV generator architectures optimized for CMUT biasing applications. The first circuit proposed is an ultralow-residual ripple (<5 [Formula: see text]) HV generator that uses an extremely stable sinusoidal power oscillator topology. The second circuit employs a commercially available integrated step-up converter characterized by a particularly efficient switching topology. The circuit is used to bias the CMUT by charging a buffer capacitor synchronously with the pulsing sequence, thus reducing the impact of the switching noise on the received echo signals. The small area of the circuit (about 1.5 cm(2)) makes it possible to generate the bias voltage inside the probe, very close to the CMUT, making the proposed solution attractive for portable applications. Measurements and experiments are shown to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new approaches

  2. Modern trends in lipomodeling

    PubMed Central

    El-Sabbagh, Ahmed Hassan

    2017-01-01

    Lipomodeling is the process of relocating autologous fat to change the shape, volume, consistency, and profile of tissues, with the aim of reconstructing, rejuvenating, and regenerating body features. There have been several important advancements in lipomodeling procedures during the last thirty years. Four clinical steps are important for the success of engraftment: fat harvesting, fat processing, fat reinjection, and preconditioning of the recipient site. With the discovery of adipose derived stem cells and dedifferentiated cells, fat cells become a major tool of regenerative medicine. This article reviews recent trends in lipomodeling trying to understand most of the issues in this field.

  3. Trends in Environmental Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Koester, C J; Moulik, A

    2005-03-31

    This article discusses developments in environmental analytical chemistry that occurred in the years of 2003 and 2004. References were found by searching the ''Science Citation Index and Current Contents''. As in our review of two years ago (A1), techniques are highlighted that represent current trends and state-of-the-art technologies in the sampling, extraction, separation, and detection of trace concentrations, low-part-per-billion and less, of organic, inorganic, and organometallic contaminants in environmental samples. New analytes of interest are also reviewed, the detections of which are made possible by recently developed analytical instruments and methods.

  4. Trends in Neurocognitive Aging

    PubMed Central

    Grady, Cheryl

    2013-01-01

    Preface The availability of neuroimaging technology has spurred a marked increase in the human cognitive neuroscience literature, including the study of cognitive aging. Although there is a growing consensus that the aging brain retains considerable plasticity of function, currently measured primarily by means of functional magnetic resonance imaging, it is less clear how age differences in brain activity relate to cognitive performance. The field also is hampered by the complexity of the aging process itself and the large number of factors that are influenced by age. In this review, current trends and unresolved issues in the cognitive neuroscience of aging are discussed. PMID:22714020

  5. New trends in emerging pathogens.

    PubMed

    Skovgaard, Niels

    2007-12-15

    pathogen and swine may serve as a source of infection in human, a most challenging issue in greater part of the world raising pigs. Tick-borne encephalitis virus infection, either thick borne or caused by consumption of raw milk, is an increasing trend in the industrialized part of the world. Consumer awareness, ethics of food, sustainability in food production, and trust in foods, are of growing importance to the consumer. The reaction of the consumer to new technology, such as nanotechnology, is unpredictable. Many efforts should be devoted to communication of non-biased information to both the food producers as well as the consumer.

  6. Min-Max Bias Robust Regression.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-08-01

    2 UL uIImImmIIIEllmlllllllll llEllllhllllEI El 1 .1 25 11111 -.4 ___ . .. . . N ~ . MIN- MAX BIAS ROBUST REGRESSION by R. D. Martin V. J. Yohai R. H...shown than an S-estimate based on a jump-function type p solves the n- max bias problem for the class of NI-estimates with very general scale. This...5, (X() -- .5 and the rin- max estimator approaches the least median of squared residuals estimator introduced by Rousseeuw [J. Am. Statist. Assoc

  7. Controlling Selection Bias in Causal Inference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-02-01

    studies in Epidemiology are particularly susceptible to such bias, e.g., cases may be reported only when the outcome ( disease or complica- tion) is unusual...variable”) which is always present, though often not shown in the diagram.1 A medical example of selection bias was reported in (Horwitz and Feinstein, 1978...ordering (Z1, ..., Zn) exists such that for each Zk , either (X ⊥⊥ Zk | C, Y, Z1, ..., Zk −1) or (Y ⊥⊥ Zk | C, X, Z1, ..., Zk −1). Corollary 2 (Didelez et

  8. Recursive bias estimation and L2 boosting

    SciTech Connect

    Hengartner, Nicolas W; Cornillon, Pierre - Andre; Matzner - Lober, Eric

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a general iterative bias correction procedure for regression smoothers. This bias reduction schema is shown to correspond operationally to the L{sub 2} Boosting algorithm and provides a new statistical interpretation for L{sub 2} Boosting. We analyze the behavior of the Boosting algorithm applied to common smoothers S which we show depend on the spectrum of I - S. We present examples of common smoother for which Boosting generates a divergent sequence. The statistical interpretation suggest combining algorithm with an appropriate stopping rule for the iterative procedure. Finally we illustrate the practical finite sample performances of the iterative smoother via a simulation study.

  9. Pseudo exchange bias due to rotational anisotropy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehrmann, A.; Komraus, S.; Blachowicz, T.; Domino, K.; Nees, M. K.; Jakobs, P. J.; Leiste, H.; Mathes, M.; Schaarschmidt, M.

    2016-08-01

    Ferromagnetic nanostructure arrays with particle dimensions between 160 nm and 400 nm were created by electron-beam lithography. The permalloy structures consist of rectangular-shaped walls around a square open space. While measuring their magnetic properties using the Magneto-Optical Kerr Effect (MOKE), in some angular regions an exchange bias (EB) seemed to appear. This paper gives an overview of possible reasons for this "pseudo exchange bias" and shows experimentally and by means of micromagnetic simulations that this effect can be attributed to unintentionally measuring minor loops.

  10. Local bias-induced phase transitions

    DOE PAGES

    Seal, Katyayani; Baddorf, Arthur P.; Jesse, Stephen; ...

    2008-11-27

    Electrical bias-induced phase transitions underpin a wide range of applications from data storage to energy generation and conversion. The mechanisms behind these transitions are often quite complex and in many cases are extremely sensitive to local defects that act as centers for local transformations or pinning. Furthermore, using ferroelectrics as an example, we review methods for probing bias-induced phase transitions and discuss the current limitations and challenges for extending the methods to field-induced phase transitions and electrochemical reactions in energy storage, biological and molecular systems.

  11. Global trends, needs, issues.

    PubMed

    Kieffer, R G

    1998-01-01

    Worldwide, Pharmaceutical Plant Management struggles with the competing priorities of lowering costs, rising customer expectations, more demanding government regulations, and the need to reduce cycle times especially in the introduction of new products. All of this takes place in an environment of global competition, regulatory harmonization, mergers and downsizing, and employee insecurity. Employees are expected to do more with less, work with more sophisticated equipment and processes, take more personal responsibility for quality and productivity, work in teams, etc. In summary, we are talking about CHANGE, the speed of which will accelerate in the years to come. This presentation will discuss how some pharmaceutical plants are addressing these challenges. Examples will be given in the areas of validation, process reengineering, risk analysis, role of the quality function and people. It is my contention that most of the global trends today are insufficient to meet the challenges that we face. I hope that this presentation will generate some ideas on what the global trends should be.

  12. Maternal Anxiety Predicts Attentional Bias Towards Threat in Infancy.

    PubMed

    Morales, Santiago; Brown, Kayla M; Taber-Thomas, Bradley C; LoBue, Vanessa; Buss, Kristin A; Pérez-Edgar, Koraly E

    2017-02-16

    Although cognitive theories of psychopathology suggest that attention bias toward threat plays a role in the etiology and maintenance of anxiety, there is relatively little evidence regarding individual differences in the earliest development of attention bias toward threat. The current study examines attention bias toward threat during its potential first emergence by evaluating the relations between attention bias and known risk factors of anxiety (i.e., temperamental negative affect and maternal anxiety). We measured attention bias to emotional faces in infants (N = 98; 57 male) ages 4 to 24 months during an attention disengagement eye-tracking paradigm. We hypothesized that (a) there would be an attentional bias toward threat in the full sample of infants, replicating previous studies; (b) attentional bias toward threat would be positively related to maternal anxiety; and (c) attention bias toward threat would be positively related to temperamental negative affect. Finally, (d) we explored the potential interaction between temperament and maternal anxiety in predicting attention bias toward threat. We found that attention bias to the affective faces did not change with age, and that bias was not related to temperament. However, attention bias to threat, but not attention bias to happy faces, was positively related to maternal anxiety, such that higher maternal anxiety predicted a larger attention bias for all infants. These findings provide support for attention bias as a putative early mechanism by which early markers of risk are associated with socioemotional development. (PsycINFO Database Record

  13. Correction of biased climate simulated by biased physics through parameter estimation in an intermediate coupled model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xuefeng; Zhang, Shaoqing; Liu, Zhengyu; Wu, Xinrong; Han, Guijun

    2016-09-01

    Imperfect physical parameterization schemes are an important source of model bias in a coupled model and adversely impact the performance of model simulation. With a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land model of intermediate complexity, the impact of imperfect parameter estimation on model simulation with biased physics has been studied. Here, the biased physics is induced by using different outgoing longwave radiation schemes in the assimilation and "truth" models. To mitigate model bias, the parameters employed in the biased longwave radiation scheme are optimized using three different methods: least-squares parameter fitting (LSPF), single-valued parameter estimation and geography-dependent parameter optimization (GPO), the last two of which belong to the coupled model parameter estimation (CMPE) method. While the traditional LSPF method is able to improve the performance of coupled model simulations, the optimized parameter values from the CMPE, which uses the coupled model dynamics to project observational information onto the parameters, further reduce the bias of the simulated climate arising from biased physics. Further, parameters estimated by the GPO method can properly capture the climate-scale signal to improve the simulation of climate variability. These results suggest that the physical parameter estimation via the CMPE scheme is an effective approach to restrain the model climate drift during decadal climate predictions using coupled general circulation models.

  14. Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term “bias due to incomplete matching” to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used. PMID:25038071

  15. Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching.

    PubMed

    Austin, Peter C

    2017-02-01

    Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term "bias due to incomplete matching" to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used.

  16. Uncovering Racial Bias in Nursing Fundamentals Textbooks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Byrne, Michelle M.

    2001-01-01

    The portrayal of African Americans in nursing fundamentals textbooks was analyzed, resulting in 11 themes in the areas of history, culture, and physical assessment. Few African American leaders were included, and racial bias and stereotyping were apparent. Differences were often discussed using Eurocentric norms, and language tended to minimize…

  17. Assessing Projection Bias in Consumers’ Food Preferences

    PubMed Central

    de-Magistris, Tiziana; Gracia, Azucena

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to test whether projection bias exists in consumers’ purchasing decisions for food products. To achieve our aim, we used a non-hypothetical experiment (i.e., experimental auction), where hungry and non-hungry participants were incentivized to reveal their willingness to pay (WTP). The results confirm the existence of projection bias when consumers made their decisions on food products. In particular, projection bias existed because currently hungry participants were willing to pay a higher price premium for cheeses than satiated ones, both in hungry and satiated future states. Moreover, participants overvalued the food product more when they were delivered in the future hungry condition than in the satiated one. Our study provides clear, quantitative and meaningful evidence of projection bias because our findings are based on economic valuation of food preferences. Indeed, the strength of this study is that findings are expressed in terms of willingness to pay which is an interpretable amount of money. PMID:26828930

  18. Researching Sex Bias in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donlan, Dan

    This paper outlines five methods of research on sex bias in the classroom: one-time survey, one class/one treatment, two class/two treatment, one class/random assignment to treatment, and analysis of differentiated effect. It shows how each method could be used in attempting to measure the effect of a unit on Norma Klein's "Mom, the Wolfman and…

  19. Agitated Honeybees Exhibit Pessimistic Cognitive Biases

    PubMed Central

    Bateson, Melissa; Desire, Suzanne; Gartside, Sarah E.; Wright, Geraldine A.

    2011-01-01

    Summary Whether animals experience human-like emotions is controversial and of immense societal concern [1–3]. Because animals cannot provide subjective reports of how they feel, emotional state can only be inferred using physiological, cognitive, and behavioral measures [4–8]. In humans, negative feelings are reliably correlated with pessimistic cognitive biases, defined as the increased expectation of bad outcomes [9–11]. Recently, mammals [12–16] and birds [17–20] with poor welfare have also been found to display pessimistic-like decision making, but cognitive biases have not thus far been explored in invertebrates. Here, we ask whether honeybees display a pessimistic cognitive bias when they are subjected to an anxiety-like state induced by vigorous shaking designed to simulate a predatory attack. We show for the first time that agitated bees are more likely to classify ambiguous stimuli as predicting punishment. Shaken bees also have lower levels of hemolymph dopamine, octopamine, and serotonin. In demonstrating state-dependent modulation of categorization in bees, and thereby a cognitive component of emotion, we show that the bees' response to a negatively valenced event has more in common with that of vertebrates than previously thought. This finding reinforces the use of cognitive bias as a measure of negative emotional states across species and suggests that honeybees could be regarded as exhibiting emotions. Video Abstract PMID:21636277

  20. Group bias in cooperative norm enforcement

    PubMed Central

    McAuliffe, Katherine; Dunham, Yarrow

    2016-01-01

    A hallmark of human social cognition is the tendency for both adults and children to favour members of their own groups. Critically, this in-group bias exerts a strong influence on cooperative decision-making: people (i) tend to share more with members of their in-group and (ii) differentially enforce fairness norms depending on the group membership of their interaction partners. But why do people show these group biases in cooperation? One possibility is that the enforcement of cooperative norm violations is an evolved mechanism supporting within-group cooperation (Norms-Focused Hypothesis). Alternatively, group bias in cooperation could be a by-product of more general affective preferences for in-group members (Mere Preferences Hypothesis). Here, we appraise evidence from studies of both adults and children with the goal of understanding whether one of these two accounts is better supported by existing data. While the pattern of evidence is complex, much of it is broadly consistent with the Mere Preferences Hypothesis and little is uniquely supportive of the Norms-Focused Hypothesis. We highlight possible reasons for this complexity and suggest ways that future work can continue to help us understand the important relationship between group bias and cooperation. PMID:26644592

  1. Global bias reliability in dogs (Canis familiaris).

    PubMed

    Mongillo, Paolo; Pitteri, Elisa; Sambugaro, Pamela; Carnier, Paolo; Marinelli, Lieta

    2017-03-01

    Dogs enrolled in a previous study were assessed two years later for reliability of their local/global preference in a discrimination test with the same hierarchical stimuli used in the previous study (Experiment 1) and with a novel stimulus (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, dogs easily re-learned to discriminate the positive stimulus; their individual global/local choices were stable compared to the previous study; and an overall clear global bias was found. In Experiment 2, dogs were slower in acquiring the initial discrimination task; the overall global bias disappeared; and, individually, dogs tended to make inverse choices compared to the original study. Spontaneous attention toward the test stimulus resembling the global features of the probe stimulus was the main factor affecting the likeliness of a global choice of our dogs, regardless of the type of experiment. However, attention to task-irrelevant elements increased at the expense of attention to the stimuli in the test phase of Experiment 2. Overall, the results suggest that the stability of global bias in dogs depends on the characteristics of the assessment contingencies, likely including the learning requirements of the tasks. Our results also clearly indicate that attention processes have a prominent role on dogs' global bias, in agreement with previous findings in humans and other species.

  2. Sex Bias in Traditionally Male Occupational Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bakshis, Robert; Godshalk, James

    To evaluate potential sources of female sex bias and sex stereotyping within traditionally male occupational programs at the College of DuPage, programs with low female enrollment were selected for study: air conditioning and refrigeration, architectural drafting, auto service, building construction, criminal justice, electronics, fire science,…

  3. Culturally Considerate School Counseling: Helping without Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Kim L.

    2010-01-01

    The author brings her counseling expertise, personal experience, and compassionate perspective to this practical resource that cultivates "cultural competence"--essential for work with diverse populations. Expanding the definition of culture, this book addresses how biases have evolved in new and challenging ways, and provides strategies to help…

  4. Frontal theta overrides pavlovian learning biases.

    PubMed

    Cavanagh, James F; Eisenberg, Ian; Guitart-Masip, Marc; Huys, Quentin; Frank, Michael J

    2013-05-08

    Pavlovian biases influence learning and decision making by intricately coupling reward seeking with action invigoration and punishment avoidance with action suppression. This bias is not always adaptive-it can often interfere with instrumental requirements. The prefrontal cortex is thought to help resolve such conflict between motivational systems, but the nature of this control process remains unknown. EEG recordings of midfrontal theta band power are sensitive to conflict and predictive of adaptive control over behavior, but it is not clear whether this signal reflects control over conflict between motivational systems. Here we used a task that orthogonalized action requirements and outcome valence while recording concurrent EEG in human participants. By applying a computational model of task performance, we derived parameters reflective of the latent influence of Pavlovian bias and how it was modulated by midfrontal theta power during motivational conflict. Between subjects, those who performed better under Pavlovian conflict exhibited higher midfrontal theta power. Within subjects, trial-to-trial variance in theta power was predictive of ability to overcome the influence of the Pavlovian bias, and this effect was most pronounced in subjects with higher midfrontal theta to conflict. These findings demonstrate that midfrontal theta is not only a sensitive index of prefrontal control, but it can also reflect the application of top-down control over instrumental processes.

  5. Auditory perception bias in speech imitation.

    PubMed

    Postma-Nilsenová, Marie; Postma, Eric

    2013-01-01

    In an experimental study, we explored the role of auditory perception bias in vocal pitch imitation. Psychoacoustic tasks involving a missing fundamental indicate that some listeners are attuned to the relationship between all the higher harmonics present in the signal, which supports their perception of the fundamental frequency (the primary acoustic correlate of pitch). Other listeners focus on the lowest harmonic constituents of the complex sound signal which may hamper the perception of the fundamental. These two listener types are referred to as fundamental and spectral listeners, respectively. We hypothesized that the individual differences in speakers' capacity to imitate F 0 found in earlier studies, may at least partly be due to the capacity to extract information about F 0 from the speech signal. Participants' auditory perception bias was determined with a standard missing fundamental perceptual test. Subsequently, speech data were collected in a shadowing task with two conditions, one with a full speech signal and one with high-pass filtered speech above 300 Hz. The results showed that perception bias toward fundamental frequency was related to the degree of F 0 imitation. The effect was stronger in the condition with high-pass filtered speech. The experimental outcomes suggest advantages for fundamental listeners in communicative situations where F 0 imitation is used as a behavioral cue. Future research needs to determine to what extent auditory perception bias may be related to other individual properties known to improve imitation, such as phonetic talent.

  6. Knowledge of Social Affiliations Biases Economic Decisions.

    PubMed

    Martinez, Joel E; Mack, Michael L; Gelman, Bernard D; Preston, Alison R

    2016-01-01

    An individual's reputation and group membership can produce automatic judgments and behaviors toward that individual. Whether an individual's social reputation impacts interactions with affiliates has yet to be demonstrated. We tested the hypothesis that during initial encounters with others, existing knowledge of their social network guides behavior toward them. Participants learned reputations (cooperate, defect, or equal mix) for virtual players through an iterated economic game (EG). Then, participants learned one novel friend for each player. The critical question was how participants treated the friends in a single-shot EG after the friend-learning phase. Participants tended to cooperate with friends of cooperators and defect on friends of defectors, indicative of a decision making bias based on memory for social affiliations. Interestingly, participants' explicit predictions of the friends' future behavior showed no such bias. Moreover, the bias to defect on friends of defectors was enhanced when affiliations were learned in a social context; participants who learned to associate novel faces with player faces during reinforcement learning did not show reputation-based bias for associates of defectors during single-shot EG. These data indicate that when faced with risky social decisions, memories of social connections influence behavior implicitly.

  7. Accounting for discovery bias in genomic prediction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Our objective was to evaluate an approach to mitigating discovery bias in genomic prediction. Accuracy may be improved by placing greater emphasis on regions of the genome expected to be more influential on a trait. Methods emphasizing regions result in a phenomenon known as “discovery bias” if info...

  8. The Psychological Price of Media Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Babad, Elisha

    2005-01-01

    Media bias was investigated through the effects of a TV interviewer's preferential behavior on the image of the interviewee in the eyes of the viewers. Judges viewed a political interview with either a friendly or a hostile interviewer then rated their impressions of the interviewed politician, whose behavior was identical in all conditions. The…

  9. Countering Gender Bias in the Media.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lightbody, Mary

    2002-01-01

    Discusses gender bias created by media favoring males in science, mathematics, and technology and how female academic achievement and attitudes are effected negatively. Introduces an inquiry-based activity using media clippings in which students analyze the images in mass media and discuss their ideas on those images. (YDS)

  10. Knowledge of Social Affiliations Biases Economic Decisions

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Joel E.; Mack, Michael L.; Gelman, Bernard D.; Preston, Alison R.

    2016-01-01

    An individual’s reputation and group membership can produce automatic judgments and behaviors toward that individual. Whether an individual’s social reputation impacts interactions with affiliates has yet to be demonstrated. We tested the hypothesis that during initial encounters with others, existing knowledge of their social network guides behavior toward them. Participants learned reputations (cooperate, defect, or equal mix) for virtual players through an iterated economic game (EG). Then, participants learned one novel friend for each player. The critical question was how participants treated the friends in a single-shot EG after the friend-learning phase. Participants tended to cooperate with friends of cooperators and defect on friends of defectors, indicative of a decision making bias based on memory for social affiliations. Interestingly, participants’ explicit predictions of the friends’ future behavior showed no such bias. Moreover, the bias to defect on friends of defectors was enhanced when affiliations were learned in a social context; participants who learned to associate novel faces with player faces during reinforcement learning did not show reputation-based bias for associates of defectors during single-shot EG. These data indicate that when faced with risky social decisions, memories of social connections influence behavior implicitly. PMID:27441563

  11. Does Verb Bias Modulate Syntactic Priming?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernolet, Sarah; Hartsuiker, Robert J.

    2010-01-01

    In a corpus analysis of spontaneous speech Jaeger and Snider (2007) found that the strength of structural priming is correlated with verb alternation bias. This finding is consistent with an implicit learning account of syntactic priming: because the implicit learning model implemented by Chang (2002), Chang, Dell, and Bock (2006), and Chang,…

  12. The Nature and Implication of Textbook Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parsons, Jim

    Savage, blood-thirsty, drunk, monosyllabic, naked, and primitive are the stereotypes of Native Americans in textbooks. These stereotypes are so pervasive that they tend to be accepted uncritically by the rest of society. The evidence suggests that many textbooks are biased and, in a large number of cases, outright racist. The concept of…

  13. Biased Language: The Urge to Purge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maculaitis, Jean D'Arcy

    Issues of social discrimination of all kinds and in all forms in teaching are discussed. Sexism, racism, ageism, bias by commission versus omission, other objectionable stereotypes, and the difference between accurate portrayal and the ideal are defined. Sixteen suggestions are given for choosing or developing language arts instructional materials…

  14. Exchange bias mediated by interfacial nanoparticles (invited)

    SciTech Connect

    Berkowitz, A. E.; Sinha, S. K.; Fullerton, E. E.; Smith, D. J.

    2015-05-07

    The objective of this study on the iconic exchange-bias bilayer Permalloy/CoO has been to identify those elements of the interfacial microstructure and accompanying magnetic properties that are responsible for the exchange-bias and hysteretic properties of this bilayer. Both epitaxial and polycrystalline samples were examined. X-ray and neutron reflectometry established that there existed an interfacial region, of width ∼1 nm, whose magnetic properties differed from those of Py or CoO. A model was developed for the interfacial microstructure that predicts all the relevant properties of this system; namely; the temperature and Permalloy thickness dependence of the exchange-bias, H{sub EX}, and coercivity, H{sub C}; the much smaller measured values of H{sub EX} from what was nominally expected; the different behavior of H{sub EX} and H{sub C} in epitaxial and polycrystalline bilayers. A surprising result is that the exchange-bias does not involve direct exchange-coupling between Permalloy and CoO, but rather is mediated by CoFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} nanoparticles in the interfacial region.

  15. On So-called Test Bias

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNemar, Quinn

    1975-01-01

    Noting that the practitioner is confronted with conflicting definitions of "fairness" that claim to avoid "bias" in test usage, this article asserts that "mean fairness" can be achieved by use of multiple regression with the dichotomous variate, group membership, included as a predictor; mean fairness also holds for sub-groupings, based on test…

  16. Racial bias shapes social reinforcement learning.

    PubMed

    Lindström, Björn; Selbing, Ida; Molapour, Tanaz; Olsson, Andreas

    2014-03-01

    Both emotional facial expressions and markers of racial-group belonging are ubiquitous signals in social interaction, but little is known about how these signals together affect future behavior through learning. To address this issue, we investigated how emotional (threatening or friendly) in-group and out-group faces reinforced behavior in a reinforcement-learning task. We asked whether reinforcement learning would be modulated by intergroup attitudes (i.e., racial bias). The results showed that individual differences in racial bias critically modulated reinforcement learning. As predicted, racial bias was associated with more efficiently learned avoidance of threatening out-group individuals. We used computational modeling analysis to quantitatively delimit the underlying processes affected by social reinforcement. These analyses showed that racial bias modulates the rate at which exposure to threatening out-group individuals is transformed into future avoidance behavior. In concert, these results shed new light on the learning processes underlying social interaction with racial-in-group and out-group individuals.

  17. Mechanically Biased, Hinged Pairs of Piezoelectric Benders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sager, Frank E.

    2005-01-01

    The upper part of the figure depicts an actuator that comprises two mechanically biased piezoelectric benders hinged together at their ends and equipped with tabs at their mid-length points for attachment to the relatively moving objects that are to be actuated. In the example of the figure, the attachment tabs are labeled to indicate that the actuator is used to drive a pump piston relative to a base plate. Actuators of this type could be used to drive low-power, small-volume pumps in consumer, medical, and aerospace applications, and to generate and measure linear displacements in such robotic applications as teleoperation and tactile feedback. Each bender is a bimorph a unitary plate that comprises an upper and a lower piezoelectric layer plus electrode layers. Benders may also be made of several layers arranged to produce the same effect at the lower operating voltages. As stated above, each bender is mechanically biased; it is fabricated to have a small permanent curvature (the bias curvature) in the absence of applied voltage. As on other bimorphs, the electrical connections on each bender are arranged so that an applied voltage of suitable polarity causes the upper layer to expand and the lower layer to contract. In this case, the net effect of applying the voltage is that the plate becomes more concave as viewed from below. Conversely, an applied voltage of the opposite polarity causes the plate to become less concave as viewed from below. The benders in a hinged pair are oriented with their bias curvatures concave inward, so that there is a bias distance between the attachment tabs. The two benders are connected electrically in parallel, with their connection polarities chosen so that an applied voltage of one polarity causes both benders to become more convex inward (more bent), while an applied voltage of the opposite polarity causes both benders to become less convex inward (less bent). An increase or decrease in bend is accompanied by an increase or

  18. Audibility and visual biasing in speech perception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clement, Bart Richard

    Although speech perception has been considered a predominantly auditory phenomenon, large benefits from vision in degraded acoustic conditions suggest integration of audition and vision. More direct evidence of this comes from studies of audiovisual disparity that demonstrate vision can bias and even dominate perception (McGurk & MacDonald, 1976). It has been observed that hearing-impaired listeners demonstrate more visual biasing than normally hearing listeners (Walden et al., 1990). It is argued here that stimulus audibility must be equated across groups before true differences can be established. In the present investigation, effects of visual biasing on perception were examined as audibility was degraded for 12 young normally hearing listeners. Biasing was determined by quantifying the degree to which listener identification functions for a single synthetic auditory /ba-da-ga/ continuum changed across two conditions: (1)an auditory-only listening condition; and (2)an auditory-visual condition in which every item of the continuum was synchronized with visual articulations of the consonant-vowel (CV) tokens /ba/ and /ga/, as spoken by each of two talkers. Audibility was altered by presenting the conditions in quiet and in noise at each of three signal-to- noise (S/N) ratios. For the visual-/ba/ context, large effects of audibility were found. As audibility decreased, visual biasing increased. A large talker effect also was found, with one talker eliciting more biasing than the other. An independent lipreading measure demonstrated that this talker was more visually intelligible than the other. For the visual-/ga/ context, audibility and talker effects were less robust, possibly obscured by strong listener effects, which were characterized by marked differences in perceptual processing patterns among participants. Some demonstrated substantial biasing whereas others demonstrated little, indicating a strong reliance on audition even in severely degraded acoustic

  19. A Large-Scale Analysis of Impact Factor Biased Journal Self-Citations

    PubMed Central

    Waltman, Ludo

    2016-01-01

    Based on three decades of citation data from across scientific fields of science, we study trends in impact factor biased self-citations of scholarly journals, using a purpose-built and easy to use citation based measure. Our measure is given by the ratio between i) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in the last two years, and ii) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in preceding years. A ratio higher than one suggests that a journal’s impact factor is disproportionally affected (inflated) by self-citations. Using recently reported survey data, we show that there is a relation between high values of our proposed measure and coercive journal self-citation malpractices. We use our measure to perform a large-scale analysis of impact factor biased journal self-citations. Our main empirical result is, that the share of journals for which our measure has a (very) high value has remained stable between the 1980s and the early 2000s, but has since risen strongly in all fields of science. This time span corresponds well with the growing obsession with the impact factor as a journal evaluation measure over the last decade. Taken together, this suggests a trend of increasingly pervasive journal self-citation malpractices, with all due unwanted consequences such as inflated perceived importance of journals and biased journal rankings. PMID:27560807

  20. A Large-Scale Analysis of Impact Factor Biased Journal Self-Citations.

    PubMed

    Chorus, Caspar; Waltman, Ludo

    2016-01-01

    Based on three decades of citation data from across scientific fields of science, we study trends in impact factor biased self-citations of scholarly journals, using a purpose-built and easy to use citation based measure. Our measure is given by the ratio between i) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in the last two years, and ii) the relative share of journal self-citations to papers published in preceding years. A ratio higher than one suggests that a journal's impact factor is disproportionally affected (inflated) by self-citations. Using recently reported survey data, we show that there is a relation between high values of our proposed measure and coercive journal self-citation malpractices. We use our measure to perform a large-scale analysis of impact factor biased journal self-citations. Our main empirical result is, that the share of journals for which our measure has a (very) high value has remained stable between the 1980s and the early 2000s, but has since risen strongly in all fields of science. This time span corresponds well with the growing obsession with the impact factor as a journal evaluation measure over the last decade. Taken together, this suggests a trend of increasingly pervasive journal self-citation malpractices, with all due unwanted consequences such as inflated perceived importance of journals and biased journal rankings.

  1. Single-Receiver GPS Phase Bias Resolution

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bertiger, William I.; Haines, Bruce J.; Weiss, Jan P.; Harvey, Nathaniel E.

    2010-01-01

    Existing software has been modified to yield the benefits of integer fixed double-differenced GPS-phased ambiguities when processing data from a single GPS receiver with no access to any other GPS receiver data. When the double-differenced combination of phase biases can be fixed reliably, a significant improvement in solution accuracy is obtained. This innovation uses a large global set of GPS receivers (40 to 80 receivers) to solve for the GPS satellite orbits and clocks (along with any other parameters). In this process, integer ambiguities are fixed and information on the ambiguity constraints is saved. For each GPS transmitter/receiver pair, the process saves the arc start and stop times, the wide-lane average value for the arc, the standard deviation of the wide lane, and the dual-frequency phase bias after bias fixing for the arc. The second step of the process uses the orbit and clock information, the bias information from the global solution, and only data from the single receiver to resolve double-differenced phase combinations. It is called "resolved" instead of "fixed" because constraints are introduced into the problem with a finite data weight to better account for possible errors. A receiver in orbit has much shorter continuous passes of data than a receiver fixed to the Earth. The method has parameters to account for this. In particular, differences in drifting wide-lane values must be handled differently. The first step of the process is automated, using two JPL software sets, Longarc and Gipsy-Oasis. The resulting orbit/clock and bias information files are posted on anonymous ftp for use by any licensed Gipsy-Oasis user. The second step is implemented in the Gipsy-Oasis executable, gd2p.pl, which automates the entire process, including fetching the information from anonymous ftp

  2. Promoting Institutional Change Through Bias Literacy.

    PubMed

    Carnes, Molly; Devine, Patricia G; Isaac, Carol; Manwell, Linda Baier; Ford, Cecelia E; Byars-Winston, Angela; Fine, Eve; Sheridan, Jennifer Thurik

    2012-06-01

    The National Science Foundation and others conclude that institutional transformation is required to ensure equal opportunities for the participation and advancement of men and women in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). Such transformation requires changing the habitual attitudes and behaviors of faculty. Approaching implicit bias as a remediable habit, we present the theoretical basis and conceptual model underpinning an educational intervention to promote bias literacy among university faculty as a step toward institutional transformation regarding gender equity. We describe the development and implementation of a Bias Literacy Workshop in detail so others can replicate or adapt it to their setting. Of the 220 (167 faculty and 53 nonfaculty) attendees from the initial 17 departments/divisions offered this workshop, all 180 who completed a written evaluation found the workshop at least "somewhat useful" and 74% found it "very useful." Over 68% indicated increased knowledge of the workshop material. Of the 186 participants who wrote a commitment to engage in new activities to promote gender equity, 87% incorporated specific workshop content. Twenty-four participants were interviewed 4-6 months after attending the workshop; 75% of these not only demonstrated increased bias awareness, but described plans to change-or had actually changed-behaviors because of the workshop. Based on our sample of faculty from a Midwestern university, we conclude that at least one third of STEMM faculty who are invited will attend a 2.5-hr Bias Literacy Workshop, that nearly all will find it useful, and that most will complete a written commitment to promoting gender equity. These findings suggest that this educational intervention may effectively promote institutional change regarding gender equity.

  3. Promoting Institutional Change Through Bias Literacy

    PubMed Central

    Carnes, Molly; Devine, Patricia G.; Isaac, Carol; Manwell, Linda Baier; Ford, Cecelia E.; Byars-Winston, Angela; Fine, Eve; Sheridan, Jennifer Thurik

    2012-01-01

    The National Science Foundation and others conclude that institutional transformation is required to ensure equal opportunities for the participation and advancement of men and women in academic science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM). Such transformation requires changing the habitual attitudes and behaviors of faculty. Approaching implicit bias as a remediable habit, we present the theoretical basis and conceptual model underpinning an educational intervention to promote bias literacy among university faculty as a step toward institutional transformation regarding gender equity. We describe the development and implementation of a Bias Literacy Workshop in detail so others can replicate or adapt it to their setting. Of the 220 (167 faculty and 53 nonfaculty) attendees from the initial 17 departments/divisions offered this workshop, all 180 who completed a written evaluation found the workshop at least “somewhat useful” and 74% found it “very useful.” Over 68% indicated increased knowledge of the workshop material. Of the 186 participants who wrote a commitment to engage in new activities to promote gender equity, 87% incorporated specific workshop content. Twenty-four participants were interviewed 4–6 months after attending the workshop; 75% of these not only demonstrated increased bias awareness, but described plans to change—or had actually changed—behaviors because of the workshop. Based on our sample of faculty from a Midwestern university, we conclude that at least one third of STEMM faculty who are invited will attend a 2.5-hr Bias Literacy Workshop, that nearly all will find it useful, and that most will complete a written commitment to promoting gender equity. These findings suggest that this educational intervention may effectively promote institutional change regarding gender equity. PMID:22822416

  4. Pandemic influenza A virus codon usage revisited: biases, adaptation and implications for vaccine strain development

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Influenza A virus (IAV) is a member of the family Orthomyxoviridae and contains eight segments of a single-stranded RNA genome with negative polarity. The first influenza pandemic of this century was declared in April of 2009, with the emergence of a novel H1N1 IAV strain (H1N1pdm) in Mexico and USA. Understanding the extent and causes of biases in codon usage is essential to the understanding of viral evolution. A comprehensive study to investigate the effect of selection pressure imposed by the human host on the codon usage of an emerging, pandemic IAV strain and the trends in viral codon usage involved over the pandemic time period is much needed. Results We performed a comprehensive codon usage analysis of 310 IAV strains from the pandemic of 2009. Highly biased codon usage for Ala, Arg, Pro, Thr and Ser were found. Codon usage is strongly influenced by underlying biases in base composition. When correspondence analysis (COA) on relative synonymous codon usage (RSCU) is applied, the distribution of IAV ORFs in the plane defined by the first two major dimensional factors showed that different strains are located at different places, suggesting that IAV codon usage also reflects an evolutionary process. Conclusions A general association between codon usage bias, base composition and poor adaptation of the virus to the respective host tRNA pool, suggests that mutational pressure is the main force shaping H1N1 pdm IAV codon usage. A dynamic process is observed in the variation of codon usage of the strains enrolled in these studies. These results suggest a balance of mutational bias and natural selection, which allow the virus to explore and re-adapt its codon usage to different environments. Recoding of IAV taking into account codon bias, base composition and adaptation to host tRNA may provide important clues to develop new and appropriate vaccines. PMID:23134595

  5. Sex-biased gene expression and evolution of the x chromosome in nematodes.

    PubMed

    Albritton, Sarah Elizabeth; Kranz, Anna-Lena; Rao, Prashant; Kramer, Maxwell; Dieterich, Christoph; Ercan, Sevinç

    2014-07-01

    Studies of X chromosome evolution in various organisms have indicated that sex-biased genes are nonrandomly distributed between the X and autosomes. Here, to extend these studies to nematodes, we annotated and analyzed X chromosome gene content in four Caenorhabditis species and in Pristionchus pacificus. Our gene expression analyses comparing young adult male and female mRNA-seq data indicate that, in general, nematode X chromosomes are enriched for genes with high female-biased expression and depleted of genes with high male-biased expression. Genes with low sex-biased expression do not show the same trend of X chromosome enrichment and depletion. Combined with the observation that highly sex-biased genes are primarily expressed in the gonad, differential distribution of sex-biased genes reflects differences in evolutionary pressures linked to tissue-specific regulation of X chromosome transcription. Our data also indicate that X dosage imbalance between males (XO) and females (XX) is influential in shaping both expression and gene content of the X chromosome. Predicted upregulation of the single male X to match autosomal transcription (Ohno's hypothesis) is supported by our observation that overall transcript levels from the X and autosomes are similar for highly expressed genes. However, comparison of differentially located one-to-one orthologs between C. elegans and P. pacificus indicates lower expression of X-linked orthologs, arguing against X upregulation. These contradicting observations may be reconciled if X upregulation is not a global mechanism but instead acts locally on a subset of tissues and X-linked genes that are dosage sensitive.

  6. Internal standards: a source of analytical bias for volatile organic analyte determinations.

    PubMed

    Hiatt, Michael H

    2011-01-21

    The use of internal standards in the determination of volatile organic compounds as described in SW-846 Method 8260C introduces a potential for bias in results once the internal standards (ISTDs) are added to a sample for analysis. The bias is relative to the dissimilarity between the analyte and internal standard physical properties that influence how easily analytes are separated from a matrix and concentrated during analysis. Method 5032 is a vacuum distillation procedure for extracting analytes from a sample for use with Method 8260C. Vacuum distillation is also incorporated within another GC/MS analytical procedure, Method 8261A. Method 8260C/5032 and Method 8261A are experimentally identical, however, Method 8261A uses internal standards differently by relating the recovery of each compound to its boiling point and relative volatility. By processing each analysis (water, soil, and biota) using both Method 8260C and Method 8261A, the two approaches are compared on the basis of analyte bias and the failure rate of the quality controls. Analytes were grouped by how similar their boiling points and natural log of their relative volatilities (lnRVs) were to their Method 8260C recommended ISTDs. For the most similar analytes, the Method 8260C determinations yielded an average bias less than 10% and a failure to meet calibration criteria less than 7%. However, as the difference between analyte and ISTD became greater the bias increased to over 40% (matrix dependent) and its calibration failure rate approached 70%. In comparison, when the Method 8260C data were reprocessed as Method 8261A determinations, this trend for groupings was minimized with biases increasing from 6% to only 20% and the calibration failure rate went from 0% to 15%.

  7. The large influence of climate model bias on terrestrial carbon cycle simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahlström, Anders; Schurgers, Guy; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-01-01

    Global vegetation models and terrestrial carbon cycle models are widely used for projecting the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Ensembles of such models show a large spread in carbon balance predictions, ranging from a large uptake to a release of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere, constituting a large uncertainty in the associated feedback to atmospheric CO2 concentrations under global climate change. Errors and biases that may contribute to such uncertainty include ecosystem model structure, parameters and forcing by climate output from general circulation models (GCMs) or the atmospheric components of Earth system models (ESMs), e.g. as prepared for use in IPCC climate change assessments. The relative importance of these contributing factors to the overall uncertainty in carbon cycle projections is not well characterised. Here we investigate the role of climate model-derived biases by forcing a single global ecosystem-carbon cycle model, with original climate outputs from 15 ESMs and GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble. We show that variation among the resulting ensemble of present and future carbon cycle simulations propagates from biases in annual means of temperature, precipitation and incoming shortwave radiation. Future changes in carbon pools, and thus land carbon sink trends, are also affected by climate biases, although to a smaller extent than the absolute size of carbon pools. Our results suggest that climate biases could be responsible for a considerable fraction of the large uncertainties in ESM simulations of land carbon fluxes and pools, amounting to about 40% of the range reported for ESMs. We conclude that climate bias-induced uncertainties must be decreased to make accurate coupled atmosphere-carbon cycle projections.

  8. Land Cover Trends Project

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Acevedo, William

    2006-01-01

    The Land Cover Trends Project is designed to document the types, rates, causes, and consequences of land cover change from 1973 to 2000 within each of the 84 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Level III ecoregions that span the conterminous United States. The project's objectives are to: * Develop a comprehensive methodology using probability sampling and change analysis techniques and Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS), Thematic Mapper (TM), and Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM) data for estimating regional land cover change. * Characterize the spatial and temporal characteristics of conterminous U.S. land cover change for five periods from 1973 to 2000 (nominally 1973, 1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000). * Document the regional driving forces and consequences of change. * Prepare a national synthesis of land cover change.

  9. Trends in Cochlear Implants

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Fan-Gang

    2004-01-01

    More than 60,000 people worldwide use cochlear implants as a means to restore functional hearing. Although individual performance variability is still high, an average implant user can talk on the phone in a quiet environment. Cochlear-implant research has also matured as a field, as evidenced by the exponential growth in both the patient population and scientific publication. The present report examines current issues related to audiologic, clinical, engineering, anatomic, and physiologic aspects of cochlear implants, focusing on their psychophysical, speech, music, and cognitive performance. This report also forecasts clinical and research trends related to presurgical evaluation, fitting protocols, signal processing, and postsurgical rehabilitation in cochlear implants. Finally, a future landscape in amplification is presented that requires a unique, yet complementary, contribution from hearing aids, middle ear implants, and cochlear implants to achieve a total solution to the entire spectrum of hearing loss treatment and management. PMID:15247993

  10. Trends in childhood disease.

    PubMed

    Pallapies, Dirk

    2006-09-28

    Child mortality has declined remarkably during the last decades. While neonatal disorders, diarrhoea, pneumonia, and malaria as well as being underweight account for most of the child deaths worldwide, children's health discussions in Europe and the USA focus on other issues such as asthma, neurodevelopmental disorders, male genital malformations, and childhood cancer. There is clear evidence of increasing rates of asthma in various countries during the last decades, although rates in some countries may now have stabilised or even decline as recent UK data indicate. Although an increase in the frequency of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism and attention deficit disorder has frequently been discussed, the limited data in this field does not justify such a conclusion. While geographic heterogeneity regarding reproductive outcomes is apparent, global trends have not been identified. Interpretation of the available information on asthma, neurodevelopmental disorders and reproductive outcomes is hampered by inconstant diagnostic criteria over place and time and the lack of good and comprehensive population-based surveillance data, which makes it impossible to ascertain trends in actual disease frequency. Data indicate that developed countries have a gradually increasing incidence in leukaemia with a corresponding drop in the incidence of lymphoma. Increases in brain tumour frequency may be related to the development and wide application of new diagnostic capabilities, rather than a true change in the incidence of malignant disease. With a better prognosis for childhood cancer survival, secondary cancers following chemotherapy appear to be increasing. A wide range of environmental factors is thought to have an impact on children's health. These factors include nutrition (protein, vitamins, antioxidants), lifestyle and behaviour choices such as tobacco and alcohol use, parental health, socio-economic status, choice of living environment (urban versus rural, etc

  11. Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends.

    PubMed

    Marotzke, Jochem; Forster, Piers M

    2015-01-29

    Most present-generation climate models simulate an increase in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) since 1998, whereas observations suggest a warming hiatus. It is unclear to what extent this mismatch is caused by incorrect model forcing, by incorrect model response to forcing or by random factors. Here we analyse simulations and observations of GMST from 1900 to 2012, and show that the distribution of simulated 15-year trends shows no systematic bias against the observations. Using a multiple regression approach that is physically motivated by surface energy balance, we isolate the impact of radiative forcing, climate feedback and ocean heat uptake on GMST--with the regression residual interpreted as internal variability--and assess all possible 15- and 62-year trends. The differences between simulated and observed trends are dominated by random internal variability over the shorter timescale and by variations in the radiative forcings used to drive models over the longer timescale. For either trend length, spread in simulated climate feedback leaves no traceable imprint on GMST trends or, consequently, on the difference between simulations and observations. The claim that climate models systematically overestimate the response to radiative forcing from increasing greenhouse gas concentrations therefore seems to be unfounded.

  12. Thermospheric density model biases at sunspot maximum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pardini, Carmen; Moe, Kenneth; Anselmo, Luciano

    A previous study (Pardini C., Anselmo L, Moe K., Moe M.M., Drag and energy accommodation coefficients during sunspot maximum, Adv. Space Res., 2009, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2009.08.034), including ten satellites with altitudes between 200 and 630 km, has yielded values for the energy accommodation coefficient as well as for the physical drag coefficient as a function of height during solar maximum conditions. The results are consistent with the altitude and solar cycle variation of atomic oxygen, which is known to be adsorbed on satellite surfaces, affecting both the energy accommodation and angular distribution of the reemitted molecules. Taking advantage of these results, an investigation of thermospheric density model biases at sunspot maximum became possible using the recently upgraded CDFIT software code. Specif-ically developed at ISTI/CNR, CDFIT is used to fit the observed satellite semi-major axis decay. All the relevant orbital perturbations are considered and several atmospheric density models have been implemented over the years, including JR-71, MSISE-90, NRLMSISE-00, GOST2004 and JB2006. For this analysis we reused the satellites Cosmos 2265 and Cosmos 2332 (altitude: 275 km), SNOE (altitude: 480 km), and Clementine (altitude: 630 km), spanning the last solar cycle maximum (October 1999 -January 2003). For each satellite, and for each of the above men-tioned atmospheric density models, the fitted drag coefficient was obtained with CDFIT, using the observed orbital decay, and then compared with the corresponding physical drag coefficient estimated in the previous study (Pardini et al., 2009). It was consequently possible to derive the average density biases of the thermospheric models during the considered time span. The average results obtained for the last sunspot maximum can be summarized as follows (the sign "+" means that the atmospheric density is overestimated by the model, while the sign "-" means that the atmospheric density is underestimated

  13. Thinking in Black and White: Conscious thought increases racially biased judgments through biased face memory.

    PubMed

    Strick, Madelijn; Stoeckart, Peter F; Dijksterhuis, Ap

    2015-11-01

    It is a common research finding that conscious thought helps people to avoid racial discrimination. These three experiments, however, illustrate that conscious thought may increase biased face memory, which leads to increased judgment bias (i.e., preferring White to Black individuals). In Experiments 1 and 2, university students formed impressions of Black and White housemate candidates. They judged the candidates either immediately (immediate decision condition), thought about their judgments for a few minutes (conscious thought condition), or performed an unrelated task for a few minutes (unconscious thought condition). Conscious thinkers and immediate decision-makers showed a stronger face memory bias than unconscious thinkers, and this mediated increased judgment bias, although not all results were significant. Experiment 3 used a new, different paradigm and showed that a Black male was remembered as darker after a period of conscious thought than after a period of unconscious thought. Implications for racial prejudice are discussed.

  14. Brief Report: Negative Controls to Detect Selection Bias and Measurement Bias in Epidemiologic Studies

    PubMed Central

    Ercumen, Ayse; Benjamin-Chung, Jade; Colford, John M.

    2016-01-01

    Biomedical laboratory experiments routinely use negative controls to identify possible sources of bias, but epidemiologic studies have infrequently used this type of control in their design or measurement approach. Recently, epidemiologists proposed the routine use of negative controls in observational studies and defined the structure of negative controls to detect bias due to unmeasured confounding. We extend this previous study and define the structure of negative controls to detect selection bias and measurement bias in both observational studies and randomized trials. We illustrate the strengths and limitations of negative controls in this context using examples from the epidemiologic literature. Given their demonstrated utility and broad generalizability, the routine use of prespecified negative controls will strengthen the evidence from epidemiologic studies. PMID:27182642

  15. Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trends since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Edmund K. M.; Yau, Albert M. W.

    2016-09-01

    In this study, a comprehensive comparison of Northern Hemisphere winter storm track trend since 1959 derived from multiple reanalysis datasets and rawinsonde observations has been conducted. In addition, trends in terms of variance and cyclone track statistics have been compared. Previous studies, based largely on the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (NNR), have suggested that both the Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks have significantly intensified between the 1950s and 1990s. Comparison with trends derived from rawinsonde observations suggest that the trends derived from NNR are significantly biased high, while those from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis and the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis are much less biased but still too high. Those from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are most consistent with observations but may exhibit slight biases of opposite signs. Between 1959 and 2010, Pacific storm track activity has likely increased by 10 % or more, while Atlantic storm track activity has likely increased by <10 %. Our analysis suggests that trends in Pacific and Atlantic basin wide storm track activity prior to the 1950s derived from the two twentieth century reanalysis datasets are unlikely to be reliable due to changes in density of surface observations. Nevertheless, these datasets may provide useful information on interannual variability, especially over the Atlantic.

  16. Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOT percentiles between 1993 and 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Pozzer, Andrea; Chang, Dong Yeong; Lelieveld, Jos

    2016-04-01

    Recent Aerosol Optical thickness (AOT) trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires.

  17. Stereotype threat engenders neural attentional bias toward negative feedback to undermine performance.

    PubMed

    Forbes, Chad E; Leitner, Jordan B

    2014-10-01

    Stereotype threat, a situational pressure individuals experience when they fear confirming a negative group stereotype, engenders a cascade of physiological stress responses, negative appraisals, and performance monitoring processes that tax working memory resources necessary for optimal performance. Less is known, however, about how stereotype threat biases attentional processing in response to performance feedback, and how such attentional biases may undermine performance. Women received feedback on math problems in stereotype threatening compared to stereotype-neutral contexts while continuous EEG activity was recorded. Findings revealed that stereotype threatened women elicited larger midline P100 ERPs, increased phase locking between anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (two regions integral for attentional processes), and increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback compared to positive feedback and women in stereotype-neutral contexts. Increased power in left fusiform gyrus in response to negative feedback predicted underperformance on the math task among stereotype threatened women only. Women in stereotype-neutral contexts exhibited the opposite trend. Findings suggest that in stereotype threatening contexts, neural networks integral for attention and working memory are biased toward negative, stereotype confirming feedback at very early speeds of information processing. This bias, in turn, plays a role in undermining performance.

  18. Stochastic bias in multidimensional excursion set approaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castorina, Emanuele; Sheth, Ravi K.

    2013-08-01

    We describe a simple fully analytic model of the excursion set approach associated with two Gaussian random walks: the first walk represents the initial overdensity around a protohalo, and the second is a crude way of allowing for other factors which might influence halo formation. This model is richer than that based on a single walk, because it yields a distribution of heights at first crossing. We provide explicit expressions for the unconditional first crossing distribution which is usually used to model the halo mass function, the progenitor distributions from which merger rates are usually estimated and the conditional distributions from which correlations with environment are usually estimated. These latter exhibit perhaps the simplest form of what is often called non-local bias, and which we prefer to call stochastic bias, since the new bias effects arise from `hidden variables' other than density, but these may still be defined locally. We provide explicit expressions for these new bias factors. We also provide formulae for the distribution of heights at first crossing in the unconditional and conditional cases. In contrast to the first crossing distribution, these are exact, even for moving barriers, and for walks with correlated steps. The conditional distributions yield predictions for the distribution of halo concentrations at fixed mass and formation redshift. They also exhibit assembly bias like effects, even when the steps in the walks themselves are uncorrelated. Our formulae show that without prior knowledge of the physical origin of the second walk, the naive estimate of the critical density required for halo formation which is based on the statistics of the first crossing distribution will be larger than that based on the statistical distribution of walk heights at first crossing; both will be biased low compared to the value associated with the physics. Finally, we show how the predictions are modified if we add the requirement that haloes form

  19. Improving Regional Climate Modeling of the North American Monsoon Through Physically Consistent Bias Corrected CCSM4 Output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, J.; Jin, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to simulate a 32-year climatology of the North American Monsoon (NAM) using forcing data provided by 1) the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and 2) the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM). Systematic biases in the CCSM output such as significant dry biases in the tropics are transmitted into the WRF model through the lateral boundary conditions and degrade the performance of the model when compared to both observations and simulations forced with the CFSR dataset. To improve the ability of CCSM output to appropriately prescribe the NAM, we introduce a process using simple linear regression and the CFSR dataset to perform a mean bias correction that also maintains the physical dependencies across variables. A third NAM climatology was simulated using this bias corrected CCSM output, which showed marked improvement to the NAM precipitation, most notably in the Mexican core of the NAM. Additionally, the climatology of NAM evolutionary characteristics (i.e. onset, intensity, decay) are much better represented in the bias corrected CCSM WRF model than in the original CCSM WRF model, and closely resemble the CFSR simulations. NAM precipitation simulated by each of the three forcing datasets show the bias corrected CCSM simulations produce the most consistent trends when compared to observations, providing confidence for future projections of the NAM.

  20. Risk of bias reporting in Cochrane systematic reviews.

    PubMed

    Hopp, Lisa

    2015-10-01

    Risk of bias is an inherent quality of primary research and therefore of systematic reviews. This column addresses the Cochrane Collaboration's approach to assessing, risks of bias, the meaning of each, indicators of low, high and uncertain, and ways that risk of bias can be represented in a Cochrane systematic review report. The sources of risk of bias that reviewers evaluate include selection, performance, detection, attrition and reporting bias. Each poses threat to the internal validity of the primary studies and requires the reviewer to judge the level of risk as high, low or unclear. Reviewers need to address how studies of higher risk of bias might impact the pooled effect.

  1. When bias binds: Effect of implicit outgroup bias on ingroup affiliation.

    PubMed

    Jacoby-Senghor, Drew S; Sinclair, Stacey; Smith, Colin Tucker

    2015-09-01

    We tested a novel process we term implicit homophily in which perceivers' implicit outgroup bias shapes their affiliative responses toward ingroup targets with outgroup friends as a function of perceived similarity. Across 4 studies, we tested implicit homophily in the context of racial groups. We found that White participants with higher implicit anti-Black bias reported less affiliative responses toward White targets with Black friends compared with White targets with White friends, and this effect persisted above and beyond the effects of implicit pro-White bias and explicit racial bias (Studies 1-3). We further found evidence that this relationship between implicit anti-Black bias and affiliation exists because participants infer how comfortable targets are around outgroup members (Preliminary Study) and use this information to infer similarity on this dimension (Studies 1-3). Our findings also suggested that stigma transference and expectancy violation were not viable alternative mediators (Preliminary Study and Study 1). Finally, women's implicit anti-Black bias predicted their likelihood of having Facebook friends with Black friends, providing ecological and behavioral evidence of implicit homophily (Study 4). Implications for research on stigma by association, extended contact, affiliation, and network formation are discussed.

  2. Both Male-Biased and Female-Biased Genes Evolve Faster in Fish Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Liandong; Zhang, Zhaolei; He, Shunping

    2016-01-01

    Males and females often display extensive phenotypic differences, and many of these sexual dimorphisms are thought to result from differences between males and females in expression of genes present in both sexes. Sex-biased genes have been shown to exhibit accelerated rates of evolution in a wide array of species, however the cause of this remains enigmatic. In this study, we investigate the extent and evolutionary dynamics of sex-biased gene expression in zebrafish. Our results indicate that both male-biased genes and female-biased genes exhibit accelerated evolution at the protein level. In order to differentiate between adaptive and nonadaptive causes, we tested for codon usage bias and signatures of different selective regimes in our sequence data. Our results show that both male- and female-biased genes show signatures consistent with adaptive evolution. In order to test the generality of our findings across fish, we also analyzed publicly available data on sticklebacks, and found results consistent with our findings in zebrafish. PMID:27742722

  3. Bias and self-bias of magnetic macroparticle filters for cathodic arc plasmas

    SciTech Connect

    Byon, Eungsun; Anders, Andre

    2002-12-01

    Curved magnetic filters are often used for the removal of macroparticles from cathodic arc plasmas. This study addresses the need to further reduce losses and improving plasma throughput. The central figure of merit is the system coefficient Kappa defined as filtered ion current normalized by the plasma-producing arc current. The coefficient Kappa is investigated as a function of DC and pulsed magnetic field operation, magnetic field strength, external electric bias, and arc amplitude. It increases with positive filter bias but saturates at about 15 V for relatively low magnetic field ({approx}10 mT), whereas stronger magnetic fields lead to higher Kappa with saturation at about 25 V. Further increase of positive bias reduces Kappa. These findings are true for both pulsed and DC filters. Bias of pulsed filters has been realized using the voltage drop across a self-bias resistor, eliminating the need for a separate bias circuit. Almost 100 A of filtered copper ions have been obtained in pulse d mode, corresponding to Kappa approximately equal to 0.04. The results are interpreted by a simplified potential trough model.

  4. Sampling biases in datasets of historical mean air temperature over land.

    PubMed

    Wang, Kaicun

    2014-04-10

    Global mean surface air temperature (Ta) has been reported to have risen by 0.74°C over the last 100 years. However, the definition of mean Ta is still a subject of debate. The most defensible definition might be the integral of the continuous temperature measurements over a day (Td0). However, for technological and historical reasons, mean Ta over land have been taken to be the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature measurements (Td1). All existing principal global temperature analyses over land rely heavily on Td1. Here, I make a first quantitative assessment of the bias in the use of Td1 to estimate trends of mean Ta using hourly Ta observations at 5600 globally distributed weather stations from the 1970s to 2013. I find that the use of Td1 has a negligible impact on the global mean warming rate. However, the trend of Td1 has a substantial bias at regional and local scales, with a root mean square error of over 25% at 5° × 5° grids. Therefore, caution should be taken when using mean Ta datasets based on Td1 to examine high resolution details of warming trends.

  5. The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator

    PubMed Central

    Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

    2017-01-01

    As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly. PMID:28045977

  6. Sampling Biases in Datasets of Historical Mean Air Temperature over Land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Kaicun

    2014-04-01

    Global mean surface air temperature (Ta) has been reported to have risen by 0.74°C over the last 100 years. However, the definition of mean Ta is still a subject of debate. The most defensible definition might be the integral of the continuous temperature measurements over a day (Td0). However, for technological and historical reasons, mean Ta over land have been taken to be the average of the daily maximum and minimum temperature measurements (Td1). All existing principal global temperature analyses over land rely heavily on Td1. Here, I make a first quantitative assessment of the bias in the use of Td1 to estimate trends of mean Ta using hourly Ta observations at 5600 globally distributed weather stations from the 1970s to 2013. I find that the use of Td1 has a negligible impact on the global mean warming rate. However, the trend of Td1 has a substantial bias at regional and local scales, with a root mean square error of over 25% at 5° × 5° grids. Therefore, caution should be taken when using mean Ta datasets based on Td1 to examine high resolution details of warming trends.

  7. Gender bias in scholarly peer review.

    PubMed

    Helmer, Markus; Schottdorf, Manuel; Neef, Andreas; Battaglia, Demian

    2017-03-21

    Peer review is the cornerstone of scholarly publishing and it is essential that peer reviewers are appointed on the basis of their expertise alone. However, it is difficult to check for any bias in the peer-review process because the identity of peer reviewers generally remains confidential. Here, using public information about the identities of 9000 editors and 43000 reviewers from the Frontiers series of journals, we show that women are underrepresented in the peer-review process, that editors of both genders operate with substantial same-gender preference (homophily), and that the mechanisms of this homophily are gender-dependent. We also show that homophily will persist even if numerical parity between genders is reached, highlighting the need for increased efforts to combat subtler forms of gender bias in scholarly publishing.

  8. Growth of oxide exchange bias layers

    DOEpatents

    Chaiken, A.; Michel, R.P.

    1998-07-21

    An oxide (NiO, CoO, NiCoO) antiferromagnetic exchange bias layer produced by ion beam sputtering of an oxide target in pure argon (Ar) sputtering gas, with no oxygen gas introduced into the system. Antiferromagnetic oxide layers are used, for example, in magnetoresistive readback heads to shift the hysteresis loops of ferromagnetic films away from the zero field axis. For example, NiO exchange bias layers have been fabricated using ion beam sputtering of an NiO target using Ar ions, with the substrate temperature at 200 C, the ion beam voltage at 1000V and the beam current at 20 mA, with a deposition rate of about 0.2 {angstrom}/sec. The resulting NiO film was amorphous. 4 figs.

  9. Two success-biased social learning strategies.

    PubMed

    Baldini, Ryan

    2013-06-01

    I compare the evolutionary dynamics of two success-biased social learning strategies, which, by definition, use the success of others to inform one's social learning decisions. The first, "Compare Means", causes a learner to adopt cultural variants with highest mean payoff in her sample. The second, "Imitate the Best", causes a learner to imitate the single most successful individual in her sample. I summarize conditions under which each strategy performs well or poorly, and investigate their evolution via a gene-culture coevolutionary model. Despite the adaptive appeal of these strategies, both encounter conditions under which they systematically perform worse than simply imitating at random. Compare Means performs worst when the optimal cultural variant is usually at high frequency, while Imitate the Best performs worst when suboptimal variants sometimes produce high payoffs. The extent to which it is optimal to use success-biased social learning depends strongly on the payoff distributions and environmental conditions that human social learners face.

  10. Biased gene transfer in microbial evolution.

    PubMed

    Andam, Cheryl P; Gogarten, J Peter

    2011-06-13

    Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is an important evolutionary process that allows the spread of innovations between distantly related organisms. We present evidence that prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) are more likely to transfer genetic material with their close relatives than with distantly related lineages. This bias in transfer partners can create phylogenetic signals that are difficult to distinguish from the signal created through shared ancestry. Preferences for transfer partners can be revealed by studying the distribution patterns of divergent genes with identical functions. In many respects, these genes are similar to alleles in a population, except that they coexist only in higher taxonomic groupings and are acquired by a species through HGT. We also discuss the role of biased gene transfer in the formation of taxonomically recognizable natural groups in the tree or net of life.

  11. Gender bias in scholarly peer review

    PubMed Central

    Helmer, Markus; Schottdorf, Manuel; Neef, Andreas; Battaglia, Demian

    2017-01-01

    Peer review is the cornerstone of scholarly publishing and it is essential that peer reviewers are appointed on the basis of their expertise alone. However, it is difficult to check for any bias in the peer-review process because the identity of peer reviewers generally remains confidential. Here, using public information about the identities of 9000 editors and 43000 reviewers from the Frontiers series of journals, we show that women are underrepresented in the peer-review process, that editors of both genders operate with substantial same-gender preference (homophily), and that the mechanisms of this homophily are gender-dependent. We also show that homophily will persist even if numerical parity between genders is reached, highlighting the need for increased efforts to combat subtler forms of gender bias in scholarly publishing. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21718.001 PMID:28322725

  12. Sex biases in the mutation rate.

    PubMed

    Hurst, L D; Ellegren, H

    1998-11-01

    Men have more germ-line cell divisions than women. Does this lead to a higher mutation rate in males? Most estimates of the proportion of mutations originating in men come either from direct observation of disease-inducing mutations or from analysis of the relative rate of evolution of sex-linked and autosomal genes in primates. The latter mode of analysis has also been applied to other mammals, birds and files. For unknown reasons, this method produces contradictory results. A majority of estimates using the best direct methods in humans indicate a male bias for point mutations, but the variance in estimates is high. It is unclear how the evolutionary and direct data correspond and a consensus as to the extent of any male bias is not presently possible. While the number of germ-line cell divisions might contribute to differences, this by no means accounts for all of the data.

  13. Sex bias in psychoactive drug advertisements.

    PubMed

    King, E

    1980-05-01

    A recent concern has been the possible effect of sex-role stereotypes upon physicians' prescription patterns. In an attempt to examine the part played by drug advertisements, this paper will present a content analysis of psychoactive (mood-modifying) drug ads appearing in the American Journal of Psychiatry over a 17-year period; and a study of subjects' perceptions of the patients depicted in these drug ads across eight dimensions emerging from the content analysis. An initial perusal of psychoactive drug ads in professional medical journals suggested the existence of a sex bias: Females appeared to be presented as patients more often than males, and in a much more demeaning manner. The present analyses were done in an attempt to discover if a sex bias does exist in drug advertisements, which may influence the physician's perception of his or her patients, and subsequently, his or her prescription patterns.

  14. Is there gender bias in nursing research?

    PubMed

    Polit, Denise F; Beck, Cheryl Tatano

    2008-10-01

    Using data from a consecutive sample of 259 studies published in four leading nursing research journals in 2005-2006, we examined whether nurse researchers favor females as study participants. On average, 75.3% of study participants were female, and 38% of studies had all-female samples. The bias favoring female participants was statistically significant and persistent. The bias was observed regardless of funding source, methodological features, and other participant and researcher characteristics, with one exception: studies that had male investigators had more sex-balanced samples. When designing studies, nurse researchers need to pay close attention to who will benefit from their research and to whether they are leaving out a specific group about which there is a gap in knowledge.

  15. Exchange bias in nano-ferrihydrite

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balaev, D. A.; Krasikov, A. A.; Dubrovskiy, A. A.; Popkov, S. I.; Stolyar, S. V.; Iskhakov, R. S.; Ladygina, V. P.; Yaroslavtsev, R. N.

    2016-11-01

    We report the results of investigations of the effect of cooling in an external magnetic field starting from the temperature over superparamagnetic blocking temperature TB on the shift of magnetic hysteresis loops in systems of ferrihydrite nanoparticles from ˜2.5 to ˜5 nm in size with different TB values. In virtue of high anisotropy fields of ferrihydrite nanoparticles and open hysteresis loops in the range of experimentally attainable magnetic fields, the shape of hysteresis loops of such objects in the field-cooling mode is influenced by the minor hysteresis loop effect. A technique is proposed for distinguishing the exchange bias effect among the effects related to the minor hysteresis loops caused by high anisotropy fields of ferrihydrite particles. The exchange bias in ferrihydrite is stably observed for particles not less than 3 nm in size or with TB over 40 K, and its characteristic value increases with the particle size.

  16. Human language reveals a universal positivity bias

    PubMed Central

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Clark, Eric M.; Desu, Suma; Frank, Morgan R.; Reagan, Andrew J.; Williams, Jake Ryland; Mitchell, Lewis; Harris, Kameron Decker; Kloumann, Isabel M.; Bagrow, James P.; Megerdoomian, Karine; McMahon, Matthew T.; Tivnan, Brian F.; Danforth, Christopher M.

    2015-01-01

    Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts. PMID:25675475

  17. Human language reveals a universal positivity bias.

    PubMed

    Dodds, Peter Sheridan; Clark, Eric M; Desu, Suma; Frank, Morgan R; Reagan, Andrew J; Williams, Jake Ryland; Mitchell, Lewis; Harris, Kameron Decker; Kloumann, Isabel M; Bagrow, James P; Megerdoomian, Karine; McMahon, Matthew T; Tivnan, Brian F; Danforth, Christopher M

    2015-02-24

    Using human evaluation of 100,000 words spread across 24 corpora in 10 languages diverse in origin and culture, we present evidence of a deep imprint of human sociality in language, observing that (i) the words of natural human language possess a universal positivity bias, (ii) the estimated emotional content of words is consistent between languages under translation, and (iii) this positivity bias is strongly independent of frequency of word use. Alongside these general regularities, we describe interlanguage variations in the emotional spectrum of languages that allow us to rank corpora. We also show how our word evaluations can be used to construct physical-like instruments for both real-time and offline measurement of the emotional content of large-scale texts.

  18. Development of the first-mention bias*

    PubMed Central

    HARTSHORNE, JOSHUA K.; NAPPA, REBECCA; SNEDEKER, JESSE

    2015-01-01

    In many contexts, pronouns are interpreted as referring to the character mentioned first in the previous sentence, an effect called the ‘first-mention bias’. While adults can rapidly use the first-mention bias to guide pronoun interpretation, it is unclear when this bias emerges during development. Curiously, experiments with children between two and three years old show successful use of order of mention, while experiments with older children (four to five years old) do not. While this could suggest U-shaped development, it could also reflect differences in the methodologies employed. We show that children can indeed use first-mention information, but do so too slowly to have been detected in previous work reporting null results. Comparison across the present and previously published studies suggests that the speed at which children deploy first-mention information increases greatly during the preschool years. PMID:24735525

  19. Investigating bias in psychotherapy with BDSM clients.

    PubMed

    Kolmes, Keely; Stock, Wendy; Moser, Charles

    2006-01-01

    There is a concern among consensual BDSM participants that they will receive biased care from mental health professionals. Results are presented of an anonymous Internet-based survey administered to both BDSM-identified individuals who have received psychological care and to mental health professionals. The survey included socio-demographic data and invited participants to write narrative accounts of biased or culturally sensitive care, from which common themes were identified. Mental health providers (N=17) responded in fewer numbers than those who identified as BDSM-identified participants (N=175). Descriptive characteristics of the sample will be discussed. Themes from the qualitative data may be useful in informing the future development of guidelines for practitioners to work more responsibly with clients who identify as members of this sexual minority group.

  20. Model selection bias and Freedman's paradox

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lukacs, P.M.; Burnham, K.P.; Anderson, D.R.

    2010-01-01

    In situations where limited knowledge of a system exists and the ratio of data points to variables is small, variable selection methods can often be misleading. Freedman (Am Stat 37:152-155, 1983) demonstrated how common it is to select completely unrelated variables as highly "significant" when the number of data points is similar in magnitude to the number of variables. A new type of model averaging estimator based on model selection with Akaike's AIC is used with linear regression to investigate the problems of likely inclusion of spurious effects and model selection bias, the bias introduced while using the data to select a single seemingly "best" model from a (often large) set of models employing many predictor variables. The new model averaging estimator helps reduce these problems and provides confidence interval coverage at the nominal level while traditional stepwise selection has poor inferential properties. ?? The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo 2009.

  1. The interaction of perceptual biases in bistable perception

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xue; Xu, Qian; Jiang, Yi; Wang, Ying

    2017-01-01

    When viewing ambiguous stimuli, people tend to perceive some interpretations more frequently than others. Such perceptual biases impose various types of constraints on visual perception, and accordingly, have been assumed to serve distinct adaptive functions. Here we demonstrated the interaction of two functionally distinct biases in bistable biological motion perception, one regulating perception based on the statistics of the environment – the viewing-from-above (VFA) bias, and the other with the potential to reduce costly errors resulting from perceptual inference – the facing-the-viewer (FTV) bias. When compatible, the two biases reinforced each other to enhance the bias strength and induced less perceptual reversals relative to when they were in conflict. Whereas in the conflicting condition, the biases competed with each other, with the dominant percept varying with visual cues that modulate the two biases separately in opposite directions. Crucially, the way the two biases interact does not depend on the dominant bias at the individual level, and cannot be accounted for by a single bias alone. These findings provide compelling evidence that humans robustly integrate biases with different adaptive functions in visual perception. It may be evolutionarily advantageous to dynamically reweight diverse biases in the sensory context to resolve perceptual ambiguity. PMID:28165061

  2. Geophysical trends from 12+ years of AIRS radiance trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeSouza-Machado, Sergio; Strow, Larrabee; Tangborn, Andrew; Hepplewhite, Chris; Motteler, Howard; Schou, Paul; Buczkowski, Steve

    2015-04-01

    NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder has daily been providing low noise, stable top-of-the atmosphere hyperspectral radiances since 2002. Here we present analysis from 12 year linear radiance trends obtained from two AIRS radiance subsets : (1) clear-sky scenes over ocean and (2) all-sky scenes along the nadir track, which are used to retrieve a geophysical trends using an optimal estimation approach. The retrieved clear sky trends compare favorably with ERA and MERRA re-analysis trends, and in-situ trends for the minor gases. Analysis of all-sky trends show they agree better with ERA than either MERRA or the AIRS Level-2 retrievals. The radiance trends provide highly accurate measurements of atmospheric variability with easily understood error characteristics, unlike typical Level 2 retrievals. These approaches should provide highly accurate measurements of a variety of climate trends (temperature and humidity profiles, land surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing) as the AIRS (or AIRS + JPSS/CrIS + IASI) instrument time-series extends to 15+ years.

  3. Heuristics and Biases in Military Decision Making

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-10-01

    to embrace improvisation and reflection.3 The theory of reflection-in-action requires practitioners to question the structure of assumptions within...how we make decisions shape these heuristics and their accompanying biases. The theory of reflection-in-action and its implications for decision... theory ) which sought to describe human behavior as a rational maximization of cost-benefit decisions, Kahne- man and Tversky provided a simple

  4. Reducing bias in the measurement of selection.

    PubMed

    Mauricio, R; Mojonniner, L E

    1997-11-01

    Selection on quantitative characters is commonly mesured in natural populations using regression techniques based on phenotypic covariances between traits and fitness. However, such methods do not give an accutate view of the causal relationship between the phenotype and fitness if enviornmental factors also contribute to covariances between traits and fitness. A recently developed method for estimating selection eliminates the problem of bias resulting from enviormental covariances. This underappreciated method represents a significant addition to the toolbox of evolutionary ecologist.

  5. Laterally-Biased Quantum IR Detectors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-10-23

    Sistemas Optoelectronicos y Microtecnologia Calle Ramiro de Maeztu 7 Madrid 28040 SPAIN EOARD Grant 12-3006 Report Date: October 2013 Final...Universidad Politecnica de Madrid Instituto de Sistemas Optoelectronicos y Microtecnologia Calle Ramiro de Maeztu 7 Madrid 28040 SPAIN 8. PERFORMING...Z39-18 Laterally-biased quantum IR detectors – Report Nov 2013 1 EOARD - Award No. FA8655-12-1-3006 Instituto de Sistemas Optoelectrónicos

  6. Optical bias and hierarchical clustering. [Of galaxies

    SciTech Connect

    Bonometto, S.A.; Lucchin, F.; Matarrese, S.

    1987-12-01

    The present transfer of statistical results for biased theories of galaxy origin to a direct analysis of the celestial sphere's luminosity field notes that magnitude-limited galaxy catalogs are interpretable as sets of luminosity peaks bypassing suitable luminosity limits. The relationship between this view and that based on the Limber equation is discussed, and a tentative explanation is proposed for peculiarities arising in observed spatial correlations. Zwicky catalog data appear to confirm the validity of the concepts presented. 30 references.

  7. Nutrition trends in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsumura, Y

    2001-01-01

    The National Nutrition Survey (NNS) in Japan has been undertaken annually since 1946. It was originally intended to provide information on the food and nutrient intake of the Japanese people, with a view to acquiring emergency food supplies from other countries when food shortages caused malnutrition in many Japanese. The food balance sheet (FBS) has been drawn up since 1949 to show the food supply available to the Japanese people. The trends and figures shown by both approaches were similar until the mid-1970s. Since then, however, the disparity between the food supply and the intake of foods and nutrients has been getting larger. National food security means that a country has enough food for everyone. This does not mean, however, that every family has enough food, because the food may not be evenly distributed. In fact, marginal deficiencies in iron and calcium are thought to still exist and there is considerable variation among households in energy intake. In Japan, nutrition and diet are now considered to play important roles in the emerging problems of obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension etc., because of excessive energy intake and deficiency or excessive intake of certain nutrients.

  8. Trends in nutrients

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heathwaite, A.L.; Johnes, P.J.; Peters, N.E.

    1996-01-01

    The roles of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) as key nutrients determining the trophic status of water bodies are examined, and evidence reviewed for trends in concentrations of N and P species which occur in freshwaters, primarily in northern temperate environments. Data are reported for water bodies undergoing eutrophication and acidification, especially water bodies receiving increased nitrogen inputs through the atmospheric deposition of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Nutrient loading on groundwaters and surface freshwaters is assessed with respect to causes and rates of (change, relative rates of change for N and P, and implications of change for the future management of lakes, rivers and groundwaters. In particular, the nature and emphasis of studies for N species and P fractions in lakes versus rivers and groundwaters are contrasted. This review paper primarily focuses on results from North America and Europe, particularly for the UK where a wide range of data sets exists. Few nutrient loading data have been published on water bodies in less developed countries; however, some of the available data are presented to provide a global perspective. In general, N and P concentrations have increased dramatically (>20 times background concentrations) in many areas and causes vary considerably, ranging from urbanization to changes in agricultural practices.

  9. Bias in parameter estimation of form errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiangchao; Zhang, Hao; He, Xiaoying; Xu, Min

    2014-09-01

    The surface form qualities of precision components are critical to their functionalities. In precision instruments algebraic fitting is usually adopted and the form deviations are assessed in the z direction only, in which case the deviations at steep regions of curved surfaces will be over-weighted, making the fitted results biased and unstable. In this paper the orthogonal distance fitting is performed for curved surfaces and the form errors are measured along the normal vectors of the fitted ideal surfaces. The relative bias of the form error parameters between the vertical assessment and orthogonal assessment are analytically calculated and it is represented as functions of the surface slopes. The parameter bias caused by the non-uniformity of data points can be corrected by weighting, i.e. each data is weighted by the 3D area of the Voronoi cell around the projection point on the fitted surface. Finally numerical experiments are given to compare different fitting methods and definitions of the form error parameters. The proposed definition is demonstrated to show great superiority in terms of stability and unbiasedness.

  10. Reversed item bias: an integrative model.

    PubMed

    Weijters, Bert; Baumgartner, Hans; Schillewaert, Niels

    2013-09-01

    In the recent methodological literature, various models have been proposed to account for the phenomenon that reversed items (defined as items for which respondents' scores have to be recoded in order to make the direction of keying consistent across all items) tend to lead to problematic responses. In this article we propose an integrative conceptualization of three important sources of reversed item method bias (acquiescence, careless responding, and confirmation bias) and specify a multisample confirmatory factor analysis model with 2 method factors to empirically test the hypothesized mechanisms, using explicit measures of acquiescence and carelessness and experimentally manipulated versions of a questionnaire that varies 3 item arrangements and the keying direction of the first item measuring the focal construct. We explain the mechanisms, review prior attempts to model reversed item bias, present our new model, and apply it to responses to a 4-item self-esteem scale (N = 306) and the 6-item Revised Life Orientation Test (N = 595). Based on the literature review and the empirical results, we formulate recommendations on how to use reversed items in questionnaires.

  11. Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times

    PubMed Central

    Alós-Ferrer, Carlos; Garagnani, Michele; Hügelschäfer, Sabine

    2016-01-01

    We present novel evidence on response times and personality traits in standard questions from the decision-making literature where responses are relatively slow (medians around half a minute or above). To this end, we measured response times in a number of incentivized, framed items (decisions from description) including the Cognitive Reflection Test, two additional questions following the same logic, and a number of classic questions used to study decision biases in probability judgments (base-rate neglect, the conjunction fallacy, and the ratio bias). All questions create a conflict between an intuitive process and more deliberative thinking. For each item, we then created a non-conflict version by either making the intuitive impulse correct (resulting in an alignment question), shutting it down (creating a neutral question), or making it dominant (creating a heuristic question). For CRT questions, the differences in response times are as predicted by dual-process theories, with alignment and heuristic variants leading to faster responses and neutral questions to slower responses than the original, conflict questions. For decision biases (where responses are slower), evidence is mixed. To explore the possible influence of personality factors on both choices and response times, we used standard personality scales including the Rational-Experiential Inventory and the Big Five, and used them as controls in regression analysis. PMID:27713710

  12. Response bias in judging deceptive movements.

    PubMed

    Cañal-Bruland, R; Schmidt, M

    2009-03-01

    Two not mutually exclusive explanations, perceptual and motor expertise, account for the finding that experts outperform novices in recognizing deceptive actions from bodily (kinematic) cues. The aim of the present study was twofold: First, we sought to examine the impact of motor and perceptual expertise on distinguishing deceptive and non-deceptive actions. Second, we tested the hypothesis that differences in perceptual judgments on deceptive movements vs. non-deceptive movements do not necessarily need to be caused by either perceptual or motor expertise differences, but can also be a result of response bias. Skilled handball players (field players and goalkeepers) and novices had to detect whether a penalty-taker shot or faked a shot at the goal. Signal detection theory (SDT) analysis revealed that skilled handball players outperformed novices in discriminating shots from fakes. No differences in perceptual sensitivity were found between the goalkeepers and the field players. However, SDT analysis showed that goalkeepers were significantly biased to judge movements as deceptive, while neither field players nor novices showed this response bias.

  13. Fandom Biases Retrospective Judgments Not Perception

    PubMed Central

    Huff, Markus; Papenmeier, Frank; Maurer, Annika E.; Meitz, Tino G. K.; Garsoffky, Bärbel; Schwan, Stephan

    2017-01-01

    Attitudes and motivations have been shown to affect the processing of visual input, indicating that observers may see a given situation each literally in a different way. Yet, in real-life, processing information in an unbiased manner is considered to be of high adaptive value. Attitudinal and motivational effects were found for attention, characterization, categorization, and memory. On the other hand, for dynamic real-life events, visual processing has been found to be highly synchronous among viewers. Thus, while in a seminal study fandom as a particularly strong case of attitudes did bias judgments of a sports event, it left the question open whether attitudes do bias prior processing stages. Here, we investigated influences of fandom during the live TV broadcasting of the 2013 UEFA-Champions-League Final regarding attention, event segmentation, immediate and delayed cued recall, as well as affect, memory confidence, and retrospective judgments. Even though we replicated biased retrospective judgments, we found that eye-movements, event segmentation, and cued recall were largely similar across both groups of fans. Our findings demonstrate that, while highly involving sports events are interpreted in a fan dependent way, at initial stages they are processed in an unbiased manner. PMID:28233877

  14. Regional Bias of Satellite Precipitation Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Modrick, T. M.; Georgakakos, K. P.; Spencer, C. R.

    2012-12-01

    Satellite-based estimates of precipitation have improved the spatial availability of precipitation data particularly for regions with limited gauge networks due to limited accessibility or infrastructure. Understanding the quality and reliability of satellite precipitation estimates is important, especially when the estimates are utilitized for real-time hydrologic forecasting and for fast-responding phenomena. In partnership with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID) and the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Hydrologic Research Center has begun implementation of real-time flash flood warning systems for diverse regions around the world. As part of this effort, bias characteristics of satellite precipitation have been examined in these various regions, such includes portions of Southeastern Asia, Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, Central America, and the southern half of the African continent. The work has focused on the Global Hydro-Estimator (GHE) precipitation product from NOAA/NESDIS. These real-time systems utilize the GHE given low latency times of this product. This presentation focuses on the characterization of precipitation bias as compared to in-situ gauge records, and the regional variations or similarities. Additional analysis is currently underway considering regional bias for other satellite precipitation products (e.g., CMORPH) for comparison with the GHE results.

  15. Photometric Redshift Biases from Galaxy Evolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MacDonald, C. Jonathan; Bernstein, Gary

    2010-04-01

    Proposed cosmological surveys will make use of photometric redshifts of galaxies that are significantly fainter than any complete spectroscopic redshift surveys that exist to train the photo-z methods. We investigate the photo-z biases that result from known differences between the faint and bright populations: a rise in active galactic nucleus (AGN) activity toward higher redshift, and a metallicity difference between intrinsically luminous and faint early-type galaxies. We find that even very small mismatches between the mean photometric target and the training set can induce photo-z biases large enough to corrupt derived cosmological parameters significantly. Our results suggest that a metallicity shift of ∼0.003 dex in an old population, or contamination of any galaxy spectrum with ∼0.2% AGN flux, is sufficient to induce a 10-3 bias in photo-z. These results highlight the danger in extrapolating the behavior of bright galaxies to a fainter population, and the desirability of a spectroscopic training set that spans all of the characteristics of the photo-z targets, i.e., extending to the 25th mag or fainter galaxies that will be used in future surveys.

  16. Fandom Biases Retrospective Judgments Not Perception.

    PubMed

    Huff, Markus; Papenmeier, Frank; Maurer, Annika E; Meitz, Tino G K; Garsoffky, Bärbel; Schwan, Stephan

    2017-02-24

    Attitudes and motivations have been shown to affect the processing of visual input, indicating that observers may see a given situation each literally in a different way. Yet, in real-life, processing information in an unbiased manner is considered to be of high adaptive value. Attitudinal and motivational effects were found for attention, characterization, categorization, and memory. On the other hand, for dynamic real-life events, visual processing has been found to be highly synchronous among viewers. Thus, while in a seminal study fandom as a particularly strong case of attitudes did bias judgments of a sports event, it left the question open whether attitudes do bias prior processing stages. Here, we investigated influences of fandom during the live TV broadcasting of the 2013 UEFA-Champions-League Final regarding attention, event segmentation, immediate and delayed cued recall, as well as affect, memory confidence, and retrospective judgments. Even though we replicated biased retrospective judgments, we found that eye-movements, event segmentation, and cued recall were largely similar across both groups of fans. Our findings demonstrate that, while highly involving sports events are interpreted in a fan dependent way, at initial stages they are processed in an unbiased manner.

  17. Towards Identifying and Reducing the Bias of Disease Information Extracted from Search Engine Data

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Da-Cang; Wang, Jin-Feng; Huang, Ji-Xia; Sui, Daniel Z.; Zhang, Hong-Yan; Hu, Mao-Gui; Xu, Cheng-Dong

    2016-01-01

    The estimation of disease prevalence in online search engine data (e.g., Google Flu Trends (GFT)) has received a considerable amount of scholarly and public attention in recent years. While the utility of search engine data for disease surveillance has been demonstrated, the scientific community still seeks ways to identify and reduce biases that are embedded in search engine data. The primary goal of this study is to explore new ways of improving the accuracy of disease prevalence estimations by combining traditional disease data with search engine data. A novel method, Biased Sentinel Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced to reduce search engine data bias from a geographical perspective. To monitor search trends on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province, China, we tested our approach by selecting 11 keywords from the Baidu index platform, a Chinese big data analyst similar to GFT. The correlation between the number of real cases and the composite index was 0.8. After decomposing the composite index at the city level, we found that only 10 cities presented a correlation of close to 0.8 or higher. These cities were found to be more stable with respect to search volume, and they were selected as sample cities in order to estimate the search volume of the entire province. After the estimation, the correlation improved from 0.8 to 0.864. After fitting the revised search volume with historical cases, the mean absolute error was 11.19% lower than it was when the original search volume and historical cases were combined. To our knowledge, this is the first study to reduce search engine data bias levels through the use of rigorous spatial sampling strategies. PMID:27271698

  18. Towards Identifying and Reducing the Bias of Disease Information Extracted from Search Engine Data.

    PubMed

    Huang, Da-Cang; Wang, Jin-Feng; Huang, Ji-Xia; Sui, Daniel Z; Zhang, Hong-Yan; Hu, Mao-Gui; Xu, Cheng-Dong

    2016-06-01

    The estimation of disease prevalence in online search engine data (e.g., Google Flu Trends (GFT)) has received a considerable amount of scholarly and public attention in recent years. While the utility of search engine data for disease surveillance has been demonstrated, the scientific community still seeks ways to identify and reduce biases that are embedded in search engine data. The primary goal of this study is to explore new ways of improving the accuracy of disease prevalence estimations by combining traditional disease data with search engine data. A novel method, Biased Sentinel Hospital-based Area Disease Estimation (B-SHADE), is introduced to reduce search engine data bias from a geographical perspective. To monitor search trends on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in Guangdong Province, China, we tested our approach by selecting 11 keywords from the Baidu index platform, a Chinese big data analyst similar to GFT. The correlation between the number of real cases and the composite index was 0.8. After decomposing the composite index at the city level, we found that only 10 cities presented a correlation of close to 0.8 or higher. These cities were found to be more stable with respect to search volume, and they were selected as sample cities in order to estimate the search volume of the entire province. After the estimation, the correlation improved from 0.8 to 0.864. After fitting the revised search volume with historical cases, the mean absolute error was 11.19% lower than it was when the original search volume and historical cases were combined. To our knowledge, this is the first study to reduce search engine data bias levels through the use of rigorous spatial sampling strategies.

  19. Skill improvement of seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts using bias-correction and ensemble calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco; Vlot, Willem; Schmeits, Maurice; Guemas, Virginie

    2016-04-01

    We explore the standard error and skill of dynamical seasonal sea ice forecasts of the Arctic using different bias-correction and ensemble calibration methods. The latter is often used in weather forecasting, but so far has not been applied to Arctic sea ice forecasts. We use seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice of a 5-member ensemble forecast using the fully coupled GCM EC-Earth, with model initial states obtained by nudging towards ORAS4 and ERA-Interim. The raw model forecasts contain large biases in total sea ice area, especially during the summer months. This is mainly caused by a difference in average seasonal cycle between EC-Earth and observations, which translates directly into the forecasts yielding large biases. Further errors are introduced by the differences in long term trend between the observed sea ice, and the uninitialised EC-earth simulation. We find that extended logistic regression (ELR) and heteroscedastic extended logistic regression (HELR) both prove viable ensemble calibration methods, and improve the forecasts substantially compared to standard bias correction techniques. No clear distinction between ELR and HELR is found. Forecasts starting in May have higher skill (CRPSS > 0 up to 5 months lead time) than forecasts starting in August (2-3 months) and November (2-3 months), with trend-corrected climatology as reference. Analysis of regional skill in the Arctic shows distinct differences, where mainly the Arctic ocean and the Kara and Barents sea prove to be one of the more predictable regions with skilful forecasts starting in May up to 5-6 months lead time. Again, forecasts starting in August and November show much lower regional skill. Overall, it is still difficult to beat relative simple statistical forecasts, but by using ELR and HELR we are getting reasonably close to skilful seasonal forecasts up to 12 months lead time. These results show there is large potential, and need, for using ensemble calibration in seasonal forecasts of

  20. Information bias in health research: definition, pitfalls, and adjustment methods

    PubMed Central

    Althubaiti, Alaa

    2016-01-01

    As with other fields, medical sciences are subject to different sources of bias. While understanding sources of bias is a key element for drawing valid conclusions, bias in health research continues to be a very sensitive issue that can affect the focus and outcome of investigations. Information bias, otherwise known as misclassification, is one of the most common sources of bias that affects the validity of health research. It originates from the approach that is utilized to obtain or confirm study measurements. This paper seeks to raise awareness of information bias in observational and experimental research study designs as well as to enrich discussions concerning bias problems. Specifying the types of bias can be essential to limit its effects and, the use of adjustment methods might serve to improve clinical evaluation and health care practice. PMID:27217764

  1. Biases in Drosophila melanogaster protein trap screens

    PubMed Central

    Aleksic, Jelena; Lazic, Ranko; Müller, Ilka; Russell, Steven R; Adryan, Boris

    2009-01-01

    Background The ability to localise or follow endogenous proteins in real time in vivo is of tremendous utility for cell biology or systems biology studies. Protein trap screens utilise the random genomic insertion of a transposon-borne artificial reporter exon (e.g. encoding the green fluorescent protein, GFP) into an intron of an endogenous gene to generate a fluorescent fusion protein. Despite recent efforts aimed at achieving comprehensive coverage of the genes encoded in the Drosophila genome, the repertoire of genes that yield protein traps is still small. Results We analysed the collection of available protein trap lines in Drosophila melanogaster and identified potential biases that are likely to restrict genome coverage in protein trap screens. The protein trap screens investigated here primarily used P-element vectors and thus exhibit some of the same positional biases associated with this transposon that are evident from the comprehensive Drosophila Gene Disruption Project. We further found that protein trap target genes usually exhibit broad and persistent expression during embryonic development, which is likely to facilitate better detection. In addition, we investigated the likely influence of the GFP exon on host protein structure and found that protein trap insertions have a significant bias for exon-exon boundaries that encode disordered protein regions. 38.8% of GFP insertions land in disordered protein regions compared with only 23.4% in the case of non-trapping P-element insertions landing in coding sequence introns (p < 10-4). Interestingly, even in cases where protein domains are predicted, protein trap insertions frequently occur in regions encoding surface exposed areas that are likely to be functionally neutral. Considering the various biases observed, we predict that less than one third of intron-containing genes are likely to be amenable to trapping by the existing methods. Conclusion Our analyses suggest that the utility of P

  2. Stimulus-Driven Attention, Threat Bias, and Sad Bias in Youth with a History of an Anxiety Disorder or Depression.

    PubMed

    Sylvester, Chad M; Hudziak, James J; Gaffrey, Michael S; Barch, Deanna M; Luby, Joan L

    2016-02-01

    Attention biases towards threatening and sad stimuli are associated with pediatric anxiety and depression, respectively. The basic cognitive mechanisms associated with attention biases in youth, however, remain unclear. Here, we tested the hypothesis that threat bias (selective attention for threatening versus neutral stimuli) but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. We collected measures of stimulus-driven attention, threat bias, sad bias, and current clinical symptoms in youth with a history of an anxiety disorder and/or depression (ANX/DEP; n = 40) as well as healthy controls (HC; n = 33). Stimulus-driven attention was measured with a non-emotional spatial orienting task, while threat bias and sad bias were measured at a short time interval (150 ms) with a spatial orienting task using emotional faces and at a longer time interval (500 ms) using a dot-probe task. In ANX/DEP but not HC, early attention bias towards threat was negatively correlated with later attention bias to threat, suggesting that early threat vigilance was associated with later threat avoidance. Across all subjects, stimulus-driven orienting was not correlated with early threat bias but was negatively correlated with later threat bias, indicating that rapid stimulus-driven orienting is linked to later threat avoidance. No parallel relationships were detected for sad bias. Current symptoms of depression but not anxiety were related to decreased stimulus-driven attention. Together, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that threat bias but not sad bias relies on stimulus-driven attention. These results inform the design of attention bias modification programs that aim to reverse threat biases and reduce symptoms associated with pediatric anxiety and depression.

  3. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

    2015-01-01

    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  4. Projecting Trends in Public Policy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nagel, Stuart S.

    Looking back over the past 40 years, one can observe at least seven trends in public policy substance and in the study of public policy: (1) There is a trend toward higher goals for society in economic, social, political, and science policy. (2) Major changes in almost all fields of public policy have resulted in increased benefits for the less…

  5. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  6. 10 Core External Environmental Trends.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    El Camino Coll., Torrance, CA.

    This is an institutional report summarizing 10 core external environmental trends and their implications for El Camino College and the surrounding community. The report offers a brief description for the following trends: (1) there is more emphasis on colleges becoming learning institutions rather than teaching institutions; (2) the current and…

  7. Diablo Valley College Trends, 1992.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Birdsall, Les; And Others

    This report provides 31 charts showing trends in enrollment; transfer students; and ethnic and gender characteristics of students, faculty, and staff at Diablo Valley College (DVC), in California, up to fall 1992. Following a brief introduction highlighting statewide trends, charts are provided for the following areas: (1) DVC fall enrollments…

  8. Trends in Digital Media 2007

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanson-Smith, Elizabeth

    2008-01-01

    The world of CALL is changing rapidly, but there are three major trends that can be perceived as significant to language teaching and learning and likely to remain so over the next several years. This paper will discuss these trends--convergence, searchability, and collaboration--and offer examples of interesting websites that illustrate them.…

  9. Trends Shaping Education--2008 Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    OECD Publishing (NJ3), 2008

    2008-01-01

    This new biennial publication presents the latest available information on 26 major current trends in education, grouped in 9 broad themes (ageing, global challenges, the new economic landscape, work and jobs, the learning society, ICT, citizenship and the state, social connections and values, and sustainable affluence). For each trend, there is a…

  10. TRENDS IN RURAL SULFUR CONCENTRATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This paper presents an analysis of regional trends in atmospheric concentrations in sulfur dioxide (502) and particulate sulfate (50~- ) at rural monitoring sites in the Clean Air Act Status and Trends Monitoring Network (CAsTNet) from 1990 to 1999. A two-stage approach is used t...

  11. Health Trends among College Freshmen.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sax, Linda J.

    1997-01-01

    Trends in college freshmen's health nationwide based on an annual survey administered from 1966-95 are described, highlighting alcohol and drugs, physical health, psychological health, and sexual attitudes. Major trends include declines in beer drinking and physical and emotional self-confidence, and increase in stress and cigarette smoking. (SM)

  12. Trends in Family Child Care

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Neugebauer, Roger

    2011-01-01

    The author presents insights from various readers of "ExchangeEveryDay" regarding trends in the world of family child care. Kathleen Reticker of Acre Family Child Care in Lowell, Massachusetts thinks an increasing trend in Family Child Care is the pressure to emulate a Center, instead of seeing family child care as a different model. Over the…

  13. Trends in Philippine Library History.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Vicente S.

    This paper divides Philippine library history into three periods, establishing a relationship between historical events and library trends. During the Spanish period, modern library trends were introduced through the establishment of the Sociedad Economica in 1780, but did not influence Philippine library culture until the later part of the 19th…

  14. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel

    2016-04-01

    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  15. The Impact of Early Design Phase Risk Identification Biases on Space System Project Performance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeves, John D., Jr.; Eveleigh, Tim; Holzer, Thomas; Sarkani, Shahryar

    2012-01-01

    Risk identification during the early design phases of complex systems is commonly implemented but often fails to result in the identification of events and circumstances that truly challenge project performance. Inefficiencies in cost and schedule estimation are usually held accountable for cost and schedule overruns, but the true root cause is often the realization of programmatic risks. A deeper understanding of frequent risk identification trends and biases pervasive during space system design and development is needed, for it would lead to improved execution of existing identification processes and methods.

  16. NASA standard: Trend analysis techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1990-01-01

    Descriptive and analytical techniques for NASA trend analysis applications are presented in this standard. Trend analysis is applicable in all organizational elements of NASA connected with, or supporting, developmental/operational programs. This document should be consulted for any data analysis activity requiring the identification or interpretation of trends. Trend analysis is neither a precise term nor a circumscribed methodology: it generally connotes quantitative analysis of time-series data. For NASA activities, the appropriate and applicable techniques include descriptive and graphical statistics, and the fitting or modeling of data by linear, quadratic, and exponential models. Usually, but not always, the data is time-series in nature. Concepts such as autocorrelation and techniques such as Box-Jenkins time-series analysis would only rarely apply and are not included in this document. The basic ideas needed for qualitative and quantitative assessment of trends along with relevant examples are presented.

  17. Global fertility and population trends.

    PubMed

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends.

  18. Cloud seeding experiments: lack of bias in Florida series.

    PubMed

    Brier, G W; Cotton, G F; Simpson, J; Woodley, W L

    1972-04-14

    There has been concern about the possibility of selection bias in cloud seeding experiments. Covariates and experimental design have been used to obtain an estimate of this bias. The results indicate that there was no selection bias in the Caribbean and Florida series of cloud seeding experiments.

  19. A Principal Components Analysis of Dynamic Spatial Memory Biases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Motes, Michael A.; Hubbard, Timothy L.; Courtney, Jon R.; Rypma, Bart

    2008-01-01

    Research has shown that spatial memory for moving targets is often biased in the direction of implied momentum and implied gravity, suggesting that representations of the subjective experiences of these physical principles contribute to such biases. The present study examined the association between these spatial memory biases. Observers viewed…

  20. Questioning Children: Interactional Evidence of Implicit Bias in Medical Interviews

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stivers, Tanya; Majid, Asifa

    2007-01-01

    Social psychologists have shown experimentally that implicit race bias can influence an individual's behavior. Implicit bias has been suggested to be more subtle and less subject to cognitive control than more explicit forms of racial prejudice. Little is known about how implicit bias is manifest in naturally occurring social interaction. This…

  1. Methods of Assessing Bias and Fairness in Tests.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merz, William R.

    Several methods of assessing test item bias are described, and the concept of fair use of tests is examined. A test item is biased if individuals of equal ability have different probabilities of attaining the item correct. The following seven general procedures used to examine test items for bias are summarized and discussed: (1) analysis of…

  2. Development of Heuristic Bias Detection in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Neys, Wim; Feremans, Vicky

    2013-01-01

    Although human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics, recent studies have shown that adults and adolescents detect the biased nature of their judgments. The present study focused on the development of this critical bias sensitivity by examining the detection skills of young children in elementary school. Third and 6th graders were…

  3. An Experimental Examination of Readers' Perceptions of Media Bias.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    D'Alessio, Dave

    2003-01-01

    Explores perceptions of media bias by manipulating expectations of bias and news topic. Explains that university students read dummy newspaper articles and then responded to a survey. Concludes that readers were more likely to designate material opposing their own views as biased. (PM)

  4. Cultural Bias in Children's Storybooks: Implications for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Timm, Joan S.

    This study addresses concern about bias in educational materials for elementary school pupils. Children's storybooks were examined for the appearance of biases across the cultural categories of race, ethnicity, gender, age, socioeconomic level, religion, and environmental background. These biases included stereotyping, invisibility (omission of…

  5. Decomposing Bias in Different Types of Simple Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Corey N.; Poldrack, Russell A.

    2014-01-01

    The ability to adjust bias, or preference for an option, allows for great behavioral flexibility. Decision bias is also important for understanding cognition as it can provide useful information about underlying cognitive processes. Previous work suggests that bias can be adjusted in 2 primary ways: by adjusting how the stimulus under…

  6. Multiple Levels of Cultural Bias in TESOL Course Books

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sherman, John Eric

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the biased treatment of non-native characters in model dialogues in current Teaching English to Speakers of Other Languages (TESOL) course books. Although a plethora of studies have been conducted on gender bias in course books, speaker bias, or labelled "nativism" here, has been largely ignored. This research addresses…

  7. Gender Bias and the DSM-III-R.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cook, Ellen Piel; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Discusses various types of gender bias in criteria and use of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Third Edition, Revised (DSM-III-R) by counselors. Provides recommendations for addressing such bias in counselor training. Contends that bias can be minimized to extent that counselors appreciate strengths and limitations of…

  8. Hindsight Bias from 3 to 95 Years of Age

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bernstein, Daniel M.; Erdfelder, Edgar; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Peria, William; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

    2011-01-01

    Upon learning the outcome to a problem, people tend to believe that they knew it all along ("hindsight bias"). Here, we report the first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the life span. One hundred ninety-four participants aged 3 to 95 years completed 3 tasks designed to measure visual and verbal hindsight bias. All age…

  9. Accentuate the positive? The negative role of bias.

    PubMed

    Jupiter, Daniel C

    2013-01-01

    In spite of authors' best efforts, bias can creep unbidden and unseen into the medical literature. Although it is not necessarily easy to control for bias, authors must at least be aware of some of the biases that may be present in order to account for them in the critical evaluation and in order to think about better study design for the future.

  10. Laying the Foundation for Literacy: An Anti-Bias Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corson, Patricia

    2000-01-01

    Defines an anti-bias curriculum as accepting the legitimacy of children's home languages, acknowledging all attempts at communication, and promoting active involvement of traditional, extended, and non-traditional families. Examines anti-bias education, language, and literacy. Identifies six tenets of anti-bias educators. Advocates laying the…

  11. Modifying Threat-Related Interpretive Bias in Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salemink, Elske; Wiers, Reinout W.

    2011-01-01

    Socially anxious feelings sharply increase during adolescence and such feelings have been associated with interpretive biases. Studies in adults have shown that interpretive biases can be modified using Cognitive Bias Modification procedures (CBM-I) and subsequent effects on anxiety have been observed. The current study was designed to examine…

  12. A New Navigation Satellite Clock Bias Prediction Method Based on Modified Clock-bias Quadratic Polynomial Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y. P.; Lu, Z. P.; Sun, D. S.; Wang, N.

    2016-01-01

    In order to better express the characteristics of satellite clock bias (SCB) and improve SCB prediction precision, this paper proposed a new SCB prediction model which can take physical characteristics of space-borne atomic clock, the cyclic variation, and random part of SCB into consideration. First, the new model employs a quadratic polynomial model with periodic items to fit and extract the trend term and cyclic term of SCB; then based on the characteristics of fitting residuals, a time series ARIMA ~(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is used to model the residuals; eventually, the results from the two models are combined to obtain final SCB prediction values. At last, this paper uses precise SCB data from IGS (International GNSS Service) to conduct prediction tests, and the results show that the proposed model is effective and has better prediction performance compared with the quadratic polynomial model, grey model, and ARIMA model. In addition, the new method can also overcome the insufficiency of the ARIMA model in model recognition and order determination.

  13. Bias versus bias: harnessing hindsight to reveal paranormal belief change beyond demand characteristics.

    PubMed

    Kane, Michael J; Core, Tammy J; Hunt, R Reed

    2010-04-01

    Psychological change is difficult to assess, in part because self-reported beliefs and attitudes may be biased or distorted. The present study probed belief change, in an educational context, by using the hindsight bias to counter another bias that generally plagues assessment of subjective change. Although research has indicated that skepticism courses reduce paranormal beliefs, those findings may reflect demand characteristics (biases toward desired, skeptical responses). Our hindsight-bias procedure circumvented demand by asking students, following semester-long skepticism (and control) courses, to recall their precourse levels of paranormal belief. People typically remember themselves as previously thinking, believing, and acting as they do now, so current skepticism should provoke false recollections of previous skepticism. Given true belief change, therefore, skepticism students should have remembered themselves as having been more skeptical than they were. They did, at least about paranormal topics that were covered most extensively in the course. Our findings thus show hindsight to be useful in evaluating cognitive change beyond demand characteristics.

  14. Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

    2012-01-01

    This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

  15. Bias-corrected regional climate projections of extreme rainfall in south-east Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, Jason P.; Argueso, D.; Olson, R.; Di Luca, A.

    2016-09-01

    This study presents future changes in extreme precipitation as projected within the New South Wales and Australian Capital Territory Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project's regional climate ensemble for south-east Australia. Model performance, independence and projected future changes were considered when designing the ensemble. We applied a quantile mapping bias correction to the climate model outputs based on theoretical distribution functions, and the implications of this for the projected precipitation extremes is investigated. Precipitation extremes are quantified using several indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices set of indices. The bias correction was successful in removing most of the magnitude bias in extreme precipitation but does not correct biases in the length of maximum wet and dry spells. The bias correction also had a relatively small effect on the projected future changes. Across a range of metrics, robust increases in the magnitude of precipitation extreme indices are found. While these increases are often in-line with a continuation of the trends present over the last century, they are not found to be statistically significant within the ensemble as a whole. The length of the maximum consecutive wet spell is projected to remain at present-day levels, while the length of the maximum dry spell is projected to increase into the future. The combination of longer dry spells and increases in extreme precipitation magnitude indicate an important change in the character of the precipitation time series. This could have considerable hydrological implications since changes in the sequencing of events can be just as important as changes in event magnitude for hydrological impacts.

  16. Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland - studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsson, T.; Jakkila, J.; Veijalainen, N.; Backman, L.; Kaurola, J.; Vehviläinen, B.

    2015-07-01

    Assessment of climate change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past, present and future. Regional climate models (RCMs) used in impact studies often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study bias correction (BC) of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is carried out using different versions of the distribution based scaling (DBS) method. The DBS-adjusted RCM data are used as input of a hydrological model to simulate changes in discharges of four study catchments in different parts of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with the DBS-adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to observed discharges in the control period 1961-2000 and produce more realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected RCM data during 1961-2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the standard deviation of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change, increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly.

  17. Aging trends -- the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Biddlecom, A E; Domingo, L J

    1996-03-01

    This report presents a description of the trends in growth of the elderly population in the Philippines and their health, disability, education, work status, income, and family support. The proportion of elderly in the Philippines is much smaller than in other Southeast Asian countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia. The elderly population aged over 65 years increased from 2.7% of total population in 1990 to 3.6% in 1990. The elderly are expected to comprise 7.7% of total population in 2025. The proportion of elderly is small due to the high fertility rate. Life expectancy averages 63.5 years. The aged dependency ratio will double from 5.5 elderly per 100 persons aged 15-64 years in 1990 to 10.5/100 in 2025. A 1984 ASEAN survey found that only 11% of elderly rated their health as bad. The 1990 Census reveals that 3.9% were disabled elderly. Most were deaf, blind, or orthopedically impaired. 16% of elderly in the ASEAN survey reported not seeing a doctor even when they needed to. 54% reported that a doctor was not visited due to the great expense. In 1980, 67% of men and 76% of women aged over 60 years had less than a primary education. The proportion with a secondary education in 2020 is expected to be about 33% for men and 33% for women. 66.5% of men and 28.5% of women aged over 60 years were in the formal labor force in 1990. Women were less likely to receive cash income from current jobs or pensions. 65% of earnings from older rural people was income from agricultural production. 60% of income among urban elderly was from children, and 23% was from pensions. Family support is provided to the elderly in the form of coresidence. In 1988, 68% of elderly aged over 60 years lived with at least one child. Retirement or nursing homes are uncommon. The Philippines Constitution states that families have a duty to care for elderly members.

  18. Geomagnetic polarity bias patterns through the Phanerozoic

    SciTech Connect

    Algeo, T.J.

    1996-02-10

    This report assembles a polarity data set for the 278 stratigraphic formations of Cambrian-Jurassic age derived mainly from paleomagnetic studies of the past. It also evaluates sources of age-dependent variance among formation polarity ratios and constructs a polarity trend for the Phanerozoic.

  19. Developing a Critical View on E-Learning Trend Reports: Trend Watching or Trend Setting?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boon, Jo; Rusman, Ellen; van der Klink, Marcel; Tattersall, Colin

    2005-01-01

    Trend watching reports are an indispensable resource in the e-learning domain. Many HRD departments consider these reports as essential cornerstones for the development of their e-learning strategy. But what is the quality of the forecasts made in these reports? In this article, several methods of forecasting trends are discussed, resulting in a…

  20. Double exchange bias in ferrimagnetic heterostructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hebler, B.; Reinhardt, P.; Katona, G. L.; Hellwig, O.; Albrecht, M.

    2017-03-01

    We report on the magnetic reversal characteristics of exchange coupled ferrimagnetic (FI) T b19F e81/T b36F e64 heterostructures. Both layers are amorphous and exhibit strong perpendicular magnetic anisotropy. The investigated heterostructures consist of a Tb-dominated and a Fe-dominated FI layer. Thus, in the magnetic ground state the net moments of the individual layers are oppositely aligned due to antiferromagnetic coupling of Fe and Tb moments. By cooling the system below 160 K, a large positive and negative exchange bias (EB) effect appears for the Tb- and Fe-dominated layers, respectively. The biasing depends only on the initial magnetization state and is neither affected by a cooling field nor by loop cycling. The phenomenon can be explained by the presence of a hard magnetic Fe-dominated interfacial layer, which forms during the sputter deposition process due to interface mixing and resputtering effects. This interfacial layer acts as a pinning layer below a certain temperature, where its coercivity increases to values larger than the accessible magnetic field range. This assumption is further supported by introducing a 0.9-nm-thick Ru spacer layer, which causes the EB effect to vanish. The EB effect was further investigated for a sample series, where the thickness ratio of the two Tb-Fe layers was varied, while keeping the total thickness of the bilayers constant. Only samples where the individual layers are sufficiently thick reveal double shifted loops, indicating the high sensitivity of the observed bias effect with respect to the magnetic properties of the individual layers and their interfacial area.

  1. Comparing halo bias from abundance and clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, K.; Bel, J.; Gaztañaga, E.

    2015-06-01

    We model the abundance of haloes in the ˜(3 Gpc h-1)3 volume of the MICE Grand Challenge simulation by fitting the universal mass function with an improved Jackknife error covariance estimator that matches theory predictions. We present unifying relations between different fitting models and new predictions for linear (b1) and non-linear (c2 and c3) halo clustering bias. Different mass function fits show strong variations in their performance when including the low mass range (Mh ≲ 3 × 1012 M⊙ h-1) in the analysis. Together with fits from the literature, we find an overall variation in the amplitudes of around 10 per cent in the low mass and up to 50 per cent in the high mass (galaxy cluster) range (Mh > 1014 M⊙ h-1). These variations propagate into a 10 per cent change in b1 predictions and a 50 per cent change in c2 or c3. Despite these strong variations, we find universal relations between b1 and c2 or c3 for which we provide simple fits. Excluding low-mass haloes, different models fitted with reasonable goodness in this analysis, show per cent level agreement in their b1 predictions, but are systematically 5-10 per cent lower than the bias directly measured with two-point halo-mass clustering. This result confirms previous findings derived from smaller volumes (and smaller masses). Inaccuracies in the bias predictions lead to 5-10 per cent errors in growth measurements. They also affect any halo occupation distribution fitting or (cluster) mass calibration from clustering measurements.

  2. Netting bias in tropical bird studies

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coates-Estrada, R.; Dowell, B.A.; Fallon, J.E.; Robbins, C.S.; Wilson, Marcia H.; Sader, Steven A.

    1995-01-01

    Mist netting is the method most commonly used for gathering quantitative information on birds in the American tropics. Point count surveys or other methods often are used in conjunction with netting to reduce some of the many biases associated with netting, specially the failure of stationary nets within 2 m of the ground to sample birds of the tall canopy. We compare totals by both methods. Even close to the ground there are biases related to time of day and mesh size that have not been addressed in tropical studies. Some researchers operate nets all day, others only in the morning or in the morning and evening. Since 1986 we have netted birds and conducted point count surveys at more than 130 sites representing a broad spectrum of habitats in Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala. Using data only from those days when we could operate nets continuously from about dawn to dusk, we compare capture rates throughout the day to show the bias per part-day operations for certain families and species of birds and for the ratio of neotropical migrants to resident birds. More than half of 5000+ birds captured were caught after noon. Trochilidae and parulinae were captured primarily in the morning, Dendrocolaptidae in the middle of the day. Tyrannidae were more active than most birds in early afternoon, and Turdinae had morning and evening peaks. At each site we use a combination of 30-mm and 36-mm nets. The 30-mm mesh consistently captured more seedeaters, gnatcatchers, and small warblers, whereas the 36-mm mesh was more effective for birds of thrush size and larger.

  3. Modeling variability and trends in pesticide concentrations in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vecchia, A.V.; Martin, J.D.; Gilliom, R.J.

    2008-01-01

    A parametric regression model was developed for assessing the variability and long-term trends in pesticide concentrations in streams. The dependent variable is the logarithm of pesticide concentration and the explanatory variables are a seasonal wave, which represents the seasonal variability of concentration in response to seasonal application rates; a streamflow anomaly, which is the deviation of concurrent daily streamflow from average conditions for the previous 30 days; and a trend, which represents long-term (inter-annual) changes in concentration. Application of the model to selected herbicides and insecticides in four diverse streams indicated the model is robust with respect to pesticide type, stream location, and the degree of censoring (proportion of nondetections). An automatic model fitting and selection procedure for the seasonal wave and trend components was found to perform well for the datasets analyzed. Artificial censoring scenarios were used in a Monte Carlo simulation analysis to show that the fitted trends were unbiased and the approximate p-values were accurate for as few as 10 uncensored concentrations during a three-year period, assuming a sampling frequency of 15 samples per year. Trend estimates for the full model were compared with a model without the streamflow anomaly and a model in which the seasonality was modeled using standard trigonometric functions, rather than seasonal application rates. Exclusion of the streamflow anomaly resulted in substantial increases in the mean-squared error and decreases in power for detecting trends. Incorrectly modeling the seasonal structure of the concentration data resulted in substantial estimation bias and moderate increases in mean-squared error and decreases in power. ?? 2008 American Water Resources Association.

  4. Sources of bias in clinical ethics case deliberation.

    PubMed

    Magelssen, Morten; Pedersen, Reidar; Førde, Reidun

    2014-10-01

    A central task for clinical ethics consultants and committees (CEC) is providing analysis of, and advice on, prospective or retrospective clinical cases. However, several kinds of biases may threaten the integrity, relevance or quality of the CEC's deliberation. Bias should be identified and, if possible, reduced or counteracted. This paper provides a systematic classification of kinds of bias that may be present in a CEC's case deliberation. Six kinds of bias are discussed, with examples, as to their significance and risk factors. Possible remedies are suggested. The potential for bias is greater when the case deliberation is performed by an individual ethics consultant than when an entire clinical ethics committee is involved.

  5. Residual bias in a multiphase flow model calibration and prediction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poeter, E.P.; Johnson, R.H.

    2002-01-01

    When calibrated models produce biased residuals, we assume it is due to an inaccurate conceptual model and revise the model, choosing the most representative model as the one with the best-fit and least biased residuals. However, if the calibration data are biased, we may fail to identify an acceptable model or choose an incorrect model. Conceptual model revision could not eliminate biased residuals during inversion of simulated DNAPL migration under controlled conditions at the Borden Site near Ontario Canada. This paper delineates hypotheses for the source of bias, and explains the evolution of the calibration and resulting model predictions.

  6. Estimating population trends with a linear model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bart, J.; Collins, B.; Morrison, R.I.G.

    2003-01-01

    We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

  7. Methodology for Characterizing Trends | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  8. Trends at a Glance | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  9. Experimental comparison of exchange bias measurement methodologies

    SciTech Connect

    Hovorka, Ondrej; Berger, Andreas; Friedman, Gary

    2007-05-01

    Measurements performed on all-ferromagnetic bilayer systems and supported by model calculation results are used to compare different exchange bias characterization methods. We demonstrate that the accuracy of the conventional two-point technique based on measuring the sum of the coercive fields depends on the symmetry properties of hysteresis loops. On the other hand, the recently proposed center of mass method yields results independent of the hysteresis loop type and coincides with the two-point measurement only if the loops are symmetric. Our experimental and simulation results clearly demonstrate a strong correlation between loop asymmetry and the difference between these methods.

  10. Circuit QED with phase-biased qubits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourassa, Jerome; Blais, Alexandre; Devoret, Michel; Schoelkopf, Robert

    2008-03-01

    Coupling of a superconducing charge qubit to a transmission line resonator has been shown to lead to the very strong coupling regime of cavity qubit [1]. In this talk, we will discuss an alternative approach to circuit QED based on the cavity bifurcation amplifier [2] and where a qubit is directly embedded in the resonator's center line. We will show that this type of phase bias leads to very strong coupling and/or non-linearities. Readout, decoherence rates and coupling of qubits in this architecture will be discussed. [1] A. Wallraff et al., Nature 431, 162 (2004). [2] M. Metcalfe et al., PRB 76, 174516 (2007).

  11. Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sedlak, J.

    1995-05-01

    This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are

  12. Leveraging Position Bias to Improve Peer Recommendation

    PubMed Central

    Lerman, Kristina; Hogg, Tad

    2014-01-01

    With the advent of social media and peer production, the amount of new online content has grown dramatically. To identify interesting items in the vast stream of new content, providers must rely on peer recommendation to aggregate opinions of their many users. Due to human cognitive biases, the presentation order strongly affects how people allocate attention to the available content. Moreover, we can manipulate attention through the presentation order of items to change the way peer recommendation works. We experimentally evaluate this effect using Amazon Mechanical Turk. We find that different policies for ordering content can steer user attention so as to improve the outcomes of peer recommendation. PMID:24919071

  13. [A new scientific source of bias: SILLY bias. Analysis of citations of BMJ's Christmas articles].

    PubMed

    Felding, Ulrik A; Jørgensen, Karsten J; Hróbjartsson, Asbjørn

    2009-12-14

    We analysed the scientific impact of systematic reviews and randomised trials published in the BMJ Christmas issues 1997-2006. The articles were mostly interpreted correctly as humorous, but the humorous dimension was overlooked with surprising ease. The result from one ironic-absurd trial on the effect of retroactive remote intercessory prayer for patients already dead or dismissed was taken at face value in 12/36 of the citing articles, and mortality data was unconditionally included in three systematic reviews. Thus, we document a new type of bias in medical research: Serious Idiopathic Loss of Ludic ironY (SILLY) bias, both in citation practices and in metaanalyses.

  14. Nitrate Trends in Minnesota Rivers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wall, Dave; Christopherson, Dave; Lorenz, Dave; Martin, Gary

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess long-term trends (30 to 35 years) of flow-adjusted concentrations of nitrite+nitrate-N (hereinafter referred to as nitrate) in a way that would allow us to discern changing trends. Recognizing that these trends are commonly different from one river to another river and from one part of the state to another, our objective was to examine as many river monitoring sites across the state as possible for which sufficient long term streamflow and concentration data were available.

  15. Cognitive biases can affect moral intuitions about cognitive enhancement

    PubMed Central

    Caviola, Lucius; Mannino, Adriano; Savulescu, Julian; Faulmüller, Nadira

    2014-01-01

    Research into cognitive biases that impair human judgment has mostly been applied to the area of economic decision-making. Ethical decision-making has been comparatively neglected. Since ethical decisions often involve very high individual as well as collective stakes, analyzing how cognitive biases affect them can be expected to yield important results. In this theoretical article, we consider the ethical debate about cognitive enhancement (CE) and suggest a number of cognitive biases that are likely to affect moral intuitions and judgments about CE: status quo bias, loss aversion, risk aversion, omission bias, scope insensitivity, nature bias, and optimistic bias. We find that there are more well-documented biases that are likely to cause irrational aversion to CE than biases in the opposite direction. This suggests that common attitudes about CE are predominantly negatively biased. Within this new perspective, we hope that subsequent research will be able to elaborate this hypothesis and develop effective de-biasing techniques that can help increase the rationality of the public CE debate and thus improve our ethical decision-making. PMID:25360088

  16. Geophysical trends from 12+ years of AIRS radiance trends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Desouza-Machado, S. G.; Strow, L. L.; Tangborn, A.; Hepplewhite, C.; Motteler, H.

    2014-12-01

    AIRS has been providing low noise, stable top-of-the atmospherehyperspectral radiances since 2002. In this presentation we use tworadiance subsets; (1) clear-sky scenes over ocean and (2) all-skyscenes along the nadir track. The linear trends of the AIRS spectralradiances are used to retrieve a variety of geophysical trends usingan optimal estimation approach. These retrieved clear sky trendscompare favorably with ERA and MERRA re-analysis trends, and in-situtrends for the minor gases. Preliminary analysis of all-sky trends(using radiance time derivatives) agree better with ERA than eitherMERRA or the AIRS Level-2 retrievals. Trends in cloud radiativeforcing are also examined using probability distribution functions(pdfs) of the AIRS radiances for regional subsets. These are comparedto ERA simulated radiances. These radiance and radiance PDF trendsprovide highly accurate measurements of atmospheric variability witheasily understood error characteristics, unlike Level 2 retrievals.These analysis approaches should provide highly accurate measurementsof a variety of climate trends (temperature and humidity profiles,land surface temperature, cloud radiative forcing) as the AIRS (orAIRS + JPSS/CrIS) instrument time-series soon extends to 15+ years.

  17. Hindsight Bias from 3 to 95 Years of Age

    PubMed Central

    Bernstein, Daniel M.; Erdfelder, Edgar; Meltzoff, Andrew N.; Peria, William; Loftus, Geoffrey R.

    2011-01-01

    Upon learning the outcome to a problem, people tend to believe that they knew it all along (hindsight bias). Here we report the first study to trace the development of hindsight bias across the lifespan. 194 participants aged 3 to 95 years completed three tasks designed to measure visual and verbal hindsight bias. All age groups demonstrated hindsight bias on all three tasks; however, preschoolers and the elderly exhibited more bias than older children and younger adults. Multinomial processing tree analyses of these data revealed that preschoolers’ enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them substituting the correct answer for their original answer in their recall (a qualitative error). Conversely, older adults’ enhanced hindsight bias resulted from them forgetting their original answer and recalling an answer closer to, but not equal to, the correct answer (a quantitative error). We discuss these findings in relation to mechanisms of memory, perspective-taking, theory of mind, and executive function. PMID:21299327

  18. System and circuitry to provide stable transconductance for biasing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garverick, Steven L. (Inventor); Yu, Xinyu (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    An amplifier system can include an input amplifier configured to receive an analog input signal and provide an amplified signal corresponding to the analog input signal. A tracking loop is configured to employ delta modulation for tracking the amplified signal, the tracking loop providing a corresponding output signal. A biasing circuit is configured to adjust a bias current to maintain stable transconductance over temperature variations, the biasing circuit providing at least one bias signal for biasing at least one of the input amplifier and the tracking loop, whereby the circuitry receiving the at least one bias signal exhibits stable performance over the temperature variations. In another embodiment the biasing circuit can be utilized in other applications.

  19. Validation of an interpretation bias assessment for body dissatisfaction.

    PubMed

    Martinelli, Mary K; Holzinger, Jayne B; Chasson, Gregory S

    2014-09-01

    Currently, research on interpretation bias and body dissatisfaction is limited. The few experimental paradigms that have been used to explore this phenomenon utilized a method that may not accurately capture the nature of interpretation bias as explained by cognitive theory. The present study investigated the reliability and validity of a novel computerized assessment of interpretation bias (WSAP) for body dissatisfaction, which may more accurately reflect the cognitive processing involved in such bias by implementing the Word Sentence Association Paradigm (WSAP), a previously established method of measuring interpretation bias in other clinical populations. Undergraduate females (n=214) completed the WSAP and other measures. Results indicate initial support for the WSAP as a valid, reliable measure of interpretation bias for body dissatisfaction. Although preliminary, this study contributes to the minimal research in this area and serves as the first psychometric investigation of the WSAP to measure such interpretation bias for body dissatisfaction.

  20. Large scale anisotropic bias from primordial non-Gaussianity

    SciTech Connect

    Baghram, Shant; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein E-mail: mh.namjoo@ipm.ir

    2013-08-01

    In this work we study the large scale structure bias in models of anisotropic inflation. We use the Peak Background Splitting method in Excursion Set Theory to find the scale-dependent bias. We show that the amplitude of the bias is modified by a direction-dependent factor. In the specific anisotropic inflation model which we study, the scale-dependent bias vanishes at leading order when the long wavelength mode in squeezed limit is aligned with the anisotropic direction in the sky. We also extend the scale-dependent bias formulation to the general situations with primordial anisotropy. We find some selection rules indicating that some specific parts of a generic anisotropic bispectrum is picked up by the bias parameter. We argue that the anisotropic bias is mainly sourced by the angle between the anisotropic direction and the long wavelength mode in the squeezed limit.

  1. Cognitive neuroscience. Unlearning implicit social biases during sleep.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiaoqing; Antony, James W; Creery, Jessica D; Vargas, Iliana M; Bodenhausen, Galen V; Paller, Ken A

    2015-05-29

    Although people may endorse egalitarianism and tolerance, social biases can remain operative and drive harmful actions in an unconscious manner. Here, we investigated training to reduce implicit racial and gender bias. Forty participants processed counterstereotype information paired with one sound for each type of bias. Biases were reduced immediately after training. During subsequent slow-wave sleep, one sound was unobtrusively presented to each participant, repeatedly, to reactivate one type of training. Corresponding bias reductions were fortified in comparison with the social bias not externally reactivated during sleep. This advantage remained 1 week later, the magnitude of which was associated with time in slow-wave and rapid-eye-movement sleep after training. We conclude that memory reactivation during sleep enhances counterstereotype training and that maintaining a bias reduction is sleep-dependent.

  2. Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.

    2007-01-01

    Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent

  3. Biased allocation of faces to social categories.

    PubMed

    Dotsch, Ron; Wigboldus, Daniël H J; van Knippenberg, Ad

    2011-06-01

    Three studies show that social categorization is biased at the level of category allocation. In all studies, participants categorized faces. In Studies 1 and 2, participants overallocated faces with criminal features--a stereotypical negative trait--to the stigmatized Moroccan category, especially if they were prejudiced. On the contrary, the stereotype-irrelevant negative trait stupid did not lead to overallocation to the Moroccan category. In Study 3, using the stigmatized category homosexual, the previously used negative trait criminal--irrelevant to the homosexual stereotype--did not lead to overallocation, but the stereotype-relevant positive trait femininity did. These results demonstrate that normative fit is higher for faces with stereotype-relevant features regardless of valence. Moreover, individual differences in implicit prejudice predicted the extent to which stereotype-relevant traits elicited overallocation: Whereas more negatively prejudiced people showed greater overallocation of faces associated with negative stereotype-relevant traits, they showed less overallocation of faces associated with positive stereotype-relevant traits. These results support our normative fit hypothesis: In general, normative fit is better for faces with stereotypical features. Moreover, normative fit is enhanced for prejudiced individuals when these features are evaluatively congruent. Social categorization thus may be biased in itself.

  4. Flow of active suspensions and biased swimming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafai, Salima; Peyla, Philippe; Garcia, Xabel; Kitenbergs, Guntars; Garcia, Michaël; LIPhy Team

    2012-11-01

    It is a challenge to understand the hydrodynamics associated with individual or collective motion of microswimmers through their fluid-mediated interactions in order for instance to manipulate the cells efficiently for some applications purposes. The motion of these micro-organisms can be often affected by the presence of gradients leading to a biased random walk (chemotaxis in the presence of chemicals, gyrotaxis in a gravity field, phototaxis under light exposure). In this study, we present our experimental results concerning the coupling of a Poiseuille flow with the biased random walk of Chlamydomonas Reinhardtii, a green unicellular micro-alga. This is done by illuminating the microswimmer suspension while flowing in a microchannel device. We show that one can obtain a spontaneous and reversible migration and separation of the microalgae suspension from the rest of the suspending medium under illumination and then dynamically control the concentration of the suspension with light. We present a simple model that accounts for the observed phenomenon. We thank the ANR MOSICOB and MICMACSWIM.

  5. Bias in Estimation of Misclassification Rates.

    PubMed

    Haberman, Shelby J

    2006-06-01

    When a simple random sample of size n is employed to establish a classification rule for prediction of a polytomous variable by an independent variable, the best achievable rate of misclassification is higher than the corresponding best achievable rate if the conditional probability distribution is known for the predicted variable given the independent variable. In typical cases, this increased misclassification rate due to sampling is remarkably small relative to other increases in expected measures of prediction accuracy due to samplings that are typically encountered in statistical analysis.This issue is particularly striking if a polytomous variable predicts a polytomous variable, for the excess misclassification rate due to estimation approaches 0 at an exponential rate as n increases. Even with a continuous real predictor and with simple nonparametric methods, it is typically not difficult to achieve an excess misclassification rate on the order of n (-1). Although reduced excess error is normally desirable, it may reasonably be argued that, in the case of classification, the reduction in bias is related to a more fundamental lack of sensitivity of misclassification error to the quality of the prediction. This lack of sensitivity is not an issue if criteria based on probability prediction such as logarithmic penalty or least squares are employed, but the latter measures typically involve more substantial issues of bias. With polytomous predictors, excess expected errors due to sampling are typically of order n (-1). For a continuous real predictor, the increase in expected error is typically of order n (-2/3).

  6. Social influence bias: a randomized experiment.

    PubMed

    Muchnik, Lev; Aral, Sinan; Taylor, Sean J

    2013-08-09

    Our society is increasingly relying on the digitized, aggregated opinions of others to make decisions. We therefore designed and analyzed a large-scale randomized experiment on a social news aggregation Web site to investigate whether knowledge of such aggregates distorts decision-making. Prior ratings created significant bias in individual rating behavior, and positive and negative social influences created asymmetric herding effects. Whereas negative social influence inspired users to correct manipulated ratings, positive social influence increased the likelihood of positive ratings by 32% and created accumulating positive herding that increased final ratings by 25% on average. This positive herding was topic-dependent and affected by whether individuals were viewing the opinions of friends or enemies. A mixture of changing opinion and greater turnout under both manipulations together with a natural tendency to up-vote on the site combined to create the herding effects. Such findings will help interpret collective judgment accurately and avoid social influence bias in collective intelligence in the future.

  7. Pulse-on-bias rocket propulsion concept

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vulpetti, Giovanni

    1982-03-01

    An approach to maximise the terminal velocity of a powered spacecraft is investigated through a variable specific impulse programme from two specific-impulse-constant engines. One propulsion system works in a continuous mode. The other one does in a pulsed mode. The variable jet speed is obtained by allowing the time between two consecutive pulses to vary. Modeling the "bias" and pulsed engines together with S/C significant systems a nonlinear programming problem is stated. Propellant and P/L, effective power and propulsion time are fixed. Specialising the problem to a NEP S/C for distant targets in the solar system a comparison is made with same flights for which the S/C uses one propulsion system. There exist ranges of initial mass and propellant fraction where the final ship velocity augments considerably in the pulse-on-bias policy, especially at lower power levels. In such environments, a meaningful example is a gain of three targets—from Saturn to Pluto—for a 5-ton 150-kWe 75-day 32%-fuel acceleration flight.

  8. Proactive inhibitory control: A general biasing account.

    PubMed

    Elchlepp, Heike; Lavric, Aureliu; Chambers, Christopher D; Verbruggen, Frederick

    2016-05-01

    Flexible behavior requires a control system that can inhibit actions in response to changes in the environment. Recent studies suggest that people proactively adjust response parameters in anticipation of a stop signal. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that proactive inhibitory control involves adjusting both attentional and response settings, and we explored the relationship with other forms of proactive and anticipatory control. Subjects responded to the color of a stimulus. On some trials, an extra signal occurred. The response to this signal depended on the task context subjects were in: in the 'ignore' context, they ignored it; in the 'stop' context, they had to withhold their response; and in the 'double-response' context, they had to execute a secondary response. An analysis of event-related brain potentials for no-signal trials in the stop context revealed that proactive inhibitory control works by biasing the settings of lower-level systems that are involved in stimulus detection, action selection, and action execution. Furthermore, subjects made similar adjustments in the double-response and stop-signal contexts, indicating an overlap between various forms of proactive action control. The results of Experiment 1 also suggest an overlap between proactive inhibitory control and preparatory control in task-switching studies: both require reconfiguration of task-set parameters to bias or alter subordinate processes. We conclude that much of the top-down control in response inhibition tasks takes place before the inhibition signal is presented.

  9. Proactive inhibitory control: A general biasing account☆

    PubMed Central

    Elchlepp, Heike; Lavric, Aureliu; Chambers, Christopher D.; Verbruggen, Frederick

    2016-01-01

    Flexible behavior requires a control system that can inhibit actions in response to changes in the environment. Recent studies suggest that people proactively adjust response parameters in anticipation of a stop signal. In three experiments, we tested the hypothesis that proactive inhibitory control involves adjusting both attentional and response settings, and we explored the relationship with other forms of proactive and anticipatory control. Subjects responded to the color of a stimulus. On some trials, an extra signal occurred. The response to this signal depended on the task context subjects were in: in the ‘ignore’ context, they ignored it; in the ‘stop’ context, they had to withhold their response; and in the ‘double-response’ context, they had to execute a secondary response. An analysis of event-related brain potentials for no-signal trials in the stop context revealed that proactive inhibitory control works by biasing the settings of lower-level systems that are involved in stimulus detection, action selection, and action execution. Furthermore, subjects made similar adjustments in the double-response and stop-signal contexts, indicating an overlap between various forms of proactive action control. The results of Experiment 1 also suggest an overlap between proactive inhibitory control and preparatory control in task-switching studies: both require reconfiguration of task-set parameters to bias or alter subordinate processes. We conclude that much of the top-down control in response inhibition tasks takes place before the inhibition signal is presented. PMID:26859519

  10. Hybrid biasing approaches for global variance reduction.

    PubMed

    Wu, Zeyun; Abdel-Khalik, Hany S

    2013-02-01

    A new variant of Monte Carlo-deterministic (DT) hybrid variance reduction approach based on Gaussian process theory is presented for accelerating convergence of Monte Carlo simulation and compared with Forward-Weighted Consistent Adjoint Driven Importance Sampling (FW-CADIS) approach implemented in the SCALE package from Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The new approach, denoted the Gaussian process approach, treats the responses of interest as normally distributed random processes. The Gaussian process approach improves the selection of the weight windows of simulated particles by identifying a subspace that captures the dominant sources of statistical response variations. Like the FW-CADIS approach, the Gaussian process approach utilizes particle importance maps obtained from deterministic adjoint models to derive weight window biasing. In contrast to the FW-CADIS approach, the Gaussian process approach identifies the response correlations (via a covariance matrix) and employs them to reduce the computational overhead required for global variance reduction (GVR) purpose. The effective rank of the covariance matrix identifies the minimum number of uncorrelated pseudo responses, which are employed to bias simulated particles. Numerical experiments, serving as a proof of principle, are presented to compare the Gaussian process and FW-CADIS approaches in terms of the global reduction in standard deviation of the estimated responses.

  11. HAMR media based on exchange bias

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elphick, K.; Vallejo-Fernandez, G.; Klemmer, T. J.; Thiele, J.-U.; O'Grady, K.

    2016-08-01

    In this work, we describe an alternative strategy for the development of heat assisted magnetic recording media. In our approach, the need for a storage material with a temperature dependent anisotropy and to provide a read out signal is separated so that each function can be optimised independently. This is achieved by the use of an exchange bias structure where a conventional CoCrPt-SiO2 recording layer is exchange biased to an underlayer of IrMn such that heating and cooling in the exchange field from the recording layer results in a shifted loop. This strategy requires the reorientation of the IrMn layer to allow coupling to the recording layer. This has been achieved by the use of an ultrathin (0.8 nm) layer of Co deposited beneath the IrMn layer. In this system, the information is in effect stored in the antiferromagnetic layer, and hence, there is no demagnetising field generated by the stored bits. A loop shift of 688 Oe has been achieved where both values of coercivity lie to one side of the origin and the information cannot be erased by a magnetic field.

  12. Bias in self-perceptions and internalizing and externalizing problems in adjustment during early adolescence: a prospective investigation.

    PubMed

    DuBois, David L; Silverthorn, Naida

    2004-06-01

    We investigated bias in self-perceptions of competence (relative to parent ratings) for family, school, and peer domains as predictors of adjustment problems among 139 young adolescents over a 1-year period using a prospective design. Regressions examined measures of bias at Time 1 (T1) as predictors of ratings of internalizing and externalizing problems at Time 2 (T2), controlling for T1 adjustment ratings. For the family domain, curvilinear trends were found. Follow-up analyses revealed that for this domain both negative bias (self-perceptions less favorable than parent ratings) and positive bias (self-perceptions more favorable than parent ratings) predicted greater internalizing and externalizing problems as rated by youth, parents, and teachers. For the peer domain, higher scores on the measure of bias predicted greater internalizing and externalizing problems as rated by teachers. These findings are consistent with the view that accuracy in self-perceptions of competence can have important implications across multiple domains of development.

  13. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  14. Trends in Higher Education Computing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thomas, Charles R.

    1984-01-01

    Discusses the effects which changes in computer technology are having on the organization, staffing, and budgets at institutions of higher education. Trends in computer hardware, computer software, and in office automation are also discussed. (JN)

  15. Temperature Trends in Montane Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melack, J. M.; Sadro, S.; Jellison, R.

    2014-12-01

    Long-term temperature trends in lakes integrate hydrological and meteorological factors. We examine temperature trends in a small montane lake with prolonged ice-cover and large seasonal snowfall and in a large saline lake. Emerald Lake, located in the Sierra Nevada (California), is representative of high-elevation lakes throughout the region. No significant trend in outflow temperature was apparent from 1991to 2012. Snowfall in the watershed accounted for 93% of the variability in average summer lake temperatures. Mono Lake (California) lies in a closed, montane basin and is hypersaline and monomictic or meromictic. Temperature profiles have been collected from 1982 to 2010. In the upper water column, the July-August-September water temperatures increased 0.8-1.0°C over the 29 years. This rate of warming is less than published estimates based on satellite-derived skin temperatures and will discussed in the context of general limnological interpretation of temperature trends.

  16. Arsenic | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  17. Home | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  18. Radon | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  19. Prevention | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  20. Introduction | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  1. Treatment | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  2. Diagnosis | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  3. Petroleum 1996: Issues and Trends

    EIA Publications

    1997-01-01

    Examines historical trends and focuses on major petroleum issues and the events they represent. It analyzes different dimensions of the petroleum industry and related markets in terms of how they relate to the volatility in petroleum markets.

  4. Sunburn | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  5. Weight | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  6. Mortality | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  7. Survival | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  8. Incidence | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  9. Benzene | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  10. Acknowledgements | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  11. Nitrate | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  12. Cadmium | Cancer Trends Progress Report

    Cancer.gov

    The Cancer Trends Progress Report, first issued in 2001, summarizes our nation's advances against cancer in relation to Healthy People targets set forth by the Department of Health and Human Services.

  13. Working within local funding trends.

    PubMed

    Pomales-Connors, Irma

    2004-06-01

    Like politics, environmentalism, and fashion, there are trends in health care research and funding. According to a series of reports by the Foundation Center-which collects, organizes, and communicates information on U.S. philanthropy-it is important to understand the significant financial and programmatic changes in the way foundations give. For pharmacists considering soliciting grant support, it is critical that they become aware of these trends and be responsive to the local or regional environments that affect funding.

  14. Vowel Bias in Danish Word-Learning: Processing Biases Are Language-Specific

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Højen, Anders; Nazzi, Thierry

    2016-01-01

    The present study explored whether the phonological bias favoring consonants found in French-learning infants and children when learning new words (Havy & Nazzi, 2009; Nazzi, 2005) is language-general, as proposed by Nespor, Peña and Mehler (2003), or varies across languages, perhaps as a function of the phonological or lexical properties of…

  15. Cognitive bias in forensic anthropology: visual assessment of skeletal remains is susceptible to confirmation bias.

    PubMed

    Nakhaeizadeh, Sherry; Dror, Itiel E; Morgan, Ruth M

    2014-05-01

    An experimental study was designed to examine cognitive biases within forensic anthropological non-metric methods in assessing sex, ancestry and age at death. To investigate examiner interpretation, forty-one non-novice participants were semi randomly divided into three groups. Prior to conducting the assessment of the skeletal remains, two of the groups were given different extraneous contextual information regarding the sex, ancestry and age at death of the individual. The third group acted as a control group with no extraneous contextual information. The experiment was designed to investigate if the interpretation and conclusions of the skeletal remains would differ amongst participants within the three groups, and to assess whether the examiners would confirm or disagree with the given extraneous context when establishing a biological profile. The results revealed a significant biasing effect within the three groups, demonstrating a strong confirmation bias in the assessment of sex, ancestry and age at death. In assessment of sex, 31% of the participants in the control group concluded that the skeleton remains were male. In contrast, in the group that received contextual information that the remains were male, 72% concluded that the remains were male, and in the participant group where the context was that the remains were of a female, 0% of the participants concluded that the remains were male. Comparable results showing bias were found in assessing ancestry and age at death. These data demonstrate that cognitive bias can impact forensic anthropological non-metric methods on skeletal remains and affects the interpretation and conclusions of the forensic scientists. This empirical study is a step in establishing an evidence base approach for dealing with cognitive issues in forensic anthropological assessments, so as to enhance this valuable forensic science discipline.

  16. The evolution of social learning rules: payoff-biased and frequency-dependent biased transmission.

    PubMed

    Kendal, Jeremy; Giraldeau, Luc-Alain; Laland, Kevin

    2009-09-21

    Humans and other animals do not use social learning indiscriminately, rather, natural selection has favoured the evolution of social learning rules that make selective use of social learning to acquire relevant information in a changing environment. We present a gene-culture coevolutionary analysis of a small selection of such rules (unbiased social learning, payoff-biased social learning and frequency-dependent biased social learning, including conformism and anti-conformism) in a population of asocial learners where the environment is subject to a constant probability of change to a novel state. We define conditions under which each rule evolves to a genetically polymorphic equilibrium. We find that payoff-biased social learning may evolve under high levels of environmental variation if the fitness benefit associated with the acquired behaviour is either high or low but not of intermediate value. In contrast, both conformist and anti-conformist biases can become fixed when environment variation is low, whereupon the mean fitness in the population is higher than for a population of asocial learners. Our examination of the population dynamics reveals stable limit cycles under conformist and anti-conformist biases and some highly complex dynamics including chaos. Anti-conformists can out-compete conformists when conditions favour a low equilibrium frequency of the learned behaviour. We conclude that evolution, punctuated by the repeated successful invasion of different social learning rules, should continuously favour a reduction in the equilibrium frequency of asocial learning, and propose that, among competing social learning rules, the dominant rule will be the one that can persist with the lowest frequency of asocial learning.

  17. Post-precipitation bias in band-tailed pigeon surveys conducted at mineral sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Overton, C.T.; Schmitz, R.A.; Casazza, M.L.

    2005-01-01

    Many animal surveys to estimate populations or index trends include protocol prohibiting counts during rain but fail to address effects of rainfall preceding the count. Prior research on Pacific Coast band-tailed pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata monilis) documented declines in use of mineral sites during rainfall. We hypothesized that prior precipitation was associated with a short-term increase in use of mineral sites following rain. We conducted weekly counts of band-tailed pigeons at 19 Pacific Northwest mineral sites in 2001 and 20 sites in 2002. Results from regression analysis indicated higher counts ???2 days after rain (11.31??5.00% [x????SE]) compared to ???3 days. Individual index counts conducted ???2 days after rain were biased high, resulting in reduced ability to accurately estimate population trends. Models of band-tailed pigeon visitation rates throughout the summer showed increased mineral-site counts during both June and August migration periods, relative to the July breeding period. Our research supported previous studies recommending that mineral-site counts used to index the band-tailed pigeon population be conducted during July. We further recommend conducting counts >3 days after rain to avoid weather-related bias in index estimation. The design of other population sampling strategies that rely on annual counts should consider the influence of aberrant weather not only coincident with but also preceding surveys if weather patterns are thought to influence behavior or detection probability of target species.

  18. Acoustic Absorption Characteristics of an Orifice With a Mean Bias Flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, K. K.; Gaeta, R. J., Jr.; DAgostino, M.; Jones, Mike (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    The objective of the study reported here was to acquire acoustic and flow data for numerical validation of impedance models that simulate bias flow through perforates. The impedance model is being developed by researchers at High Technology Corporation. This report documents normal incidence impedance measurements a singular circular orifice with mean flow passing through it. All measurements are made within a 1.12 inch (28.5 mm) diameter impedance tube. The mean flow is introduced upstream of the orifice (with the flow and incident sound wave travelling in the same direction) with an anechoic termination downstream of the orifice. Velocity profiles are obtained upstream of the orifice to characterize the inflow boundary conditions. Velocity in the center of the orifice is also obtained. All velocity measurements are made with a hot wire anemometer and subsequent checked with mass flow measurements made concurrently. All impedance measurements are made using the Two-Microphone Method. Although we have left the analysis of the data to the developers of the impedance models that simulate bias flow through perforate, our initial examination indicates that our results follow the trends consistent with published theory on impedance of perforates with a steady bias flow.

  19. Measuring Individual Differences in Decision Biases: Methodological Considerations

    PubMed Central

    Aczel, Balazs; Bago, Bence; Szollosi, Aba; Foldes, Andrei; Lukacs, Bence

    2015-01-01

    Individual differences in people's susceptibility to heuristics and biases (HB) are often measured by multiple-bias questionnaires consisting of one or a few items for each bias. This research approach relies on the assumptions that (1) different versions of a decision bias task measure are interchangeable as they measure the same cognitive failure; and (2) that some combination of these tasks measures the same underlying construct. Based on these assumptions, in Study 1 we developed two versions of a new decision bias survey for which we modified 13 HB tasks to increase their comparability, construct validity, and the participants' motivation. The analysis of the responses (N = 1279) showed weak internal consistency within the surveys and a great level of discrepancy between the extracted patterns of the underlying factors. To explore these inconsistencies, in Study 2 we used three original examples of HB tasks for each of seven biases. We created three decision bias surveys by allocating one version of each HB task to each survey. The participants' responses (N = 527) showed a similar pattern as in Study 1, questioning the assumption that the different examples of the HB tasks are interchangeable and that they measure the same underlying construct. These results emphasize the need to understand the domain-specificity of cognitive biases as well as the effect of the wording of the cover story and the response mode on bias susceptibility before employing them in multiple-bias questionnaires. PMID:26635677

  20. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

    PubMed

    Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology.

  1. Attention Bias Variability and Symptoms of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Murrough, James W.; Feder, Adriana; Fruchter, Eyal; Levinstein, Yoav; Wald, Ilan; Bailey, Christopher R.; Pine, Daniel S.; Neumeister, Alexander; Bar-Haim, Yair; Charney, Dennis S.

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive theories implicate information-processing biases in the etiology of anxiety disorders. Results of attention-bias studies in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been inconsistent, suggesting biases towards and away from threat. Within-subject variability of attention biases in posttraumatic patients may be a useful marker for attentional control impairment and the development of posttrauma symptoms. This study reports 2 experiments investigating threat-related attention biases, mood and anxiety symptoms, and attention-bias variability following trauma. Experiment 1 included 3 groups in a cross-sectional design: (a) PTSD, (b) trauma-exposed without PTSD, and (c) healthy controls with no trauma or Axis I diagnoses. Greater attention-bias variability was found in the PTSD group compared to the other 2 groups (ηp2 = .23); attention-bias variability was significantly and positively correlated (r = .37) with PTSD symptoms. Experiment 2 evaluated combat-exposed and nonexposed soldiers before and during deployment. Attention-bias variability did not differentiate groups before deployment, but did differentiate groups during deployment (ηp2 = .16); increased variability was observed in groups with acute posttraumatic stress symptoms and acute depression symptoms only. Attention-bias variability could be a useful marker for attentional impairment related to threat cues associated with mood and anxiety symptoms after trauma exposure. PMID:24604631

  2. The role of response bias in perceptual learning.

    PubMed

    Jones, Pete R; Moore, David R; Shub, Daniel E; Amitay, Sygal

    2015-09-01

    Sensory judgments improve with practice. Such perceptual learning is often thought to reflect an increase in perceptual sensitivity. However, it may also represent a decrease in response bias, with unpracticed observers acting in part on a priori hunches rather than sensory evidence. To examine whether this is the case, 55 observers practiced making a basic auditory judgment (yes/no amplitude-modulation detection or forced-choice frequency/amplitude discrimination) over multiple days. With all tasks, bias was present initially, but decreased with practice. Notably, this was the case even on supposedly "bias-free," 2-alternative forced-choice, tasks. In those tasks, observers did not favor the same response throughout (stationary bias), but did favor whichever response had been correct on previous trials (nonstationary bias). Means of correcting for bias are described. When applied, these showed that at least 13% of perceptual learning on a forced-choice task was due to reduction in bias. In other situations, changes in bias were shown to obscure the true extent of learning, with changes in estimated sensitivity increasing once bias was corrected for. The possible causes of bias and the implications for our understanding of perceptual learning are discussed.

  3. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll trend

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    rinaldi, eleonora; colella, simone; santoleri, rosalia

    2014-05-01

    Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, seen as a proxy for phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool in order to understand the response of marine ecosystem to human pressures. This is particularly important along the coastal regions, in which the strong anthropization and the irrational exploitation of resources represent a persistent threat to the biodiversity. The aim of this work is to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using Ocean Color (OC) data to monitor the environmental changes in Mediterranean Sea and to develop a method for detecting trend from OC data that can constitute a new indicator of the water quality within the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive implementation. In this study the Mediterranean merged Case1-Case2 chlorophyll product, produced by CNR-ISAC and distributed in the framework of MyOcean, is analyzed. This product is obtained by using two different bio-optical algorithms for open ocean (Case1) and coastal turbid (Case2) waters; this improves the quality of the Chl satellite estimates, especially near the coast. In order to verify the real capability of the this product for estimating Chl trend and for selecting the most appropriated statistical test to detect trend in the Mediterranean Sea, a comparison between OC and in situ data are carried out. In-situ Chl data are part of the European Environment Information and Observation Network (Eionet) of the European Environmental Agency (EEA). Four different statistical approaches to estimate trend have been selected and used to compare trend values obtained with in-situ and OC data. Results show that the best agreement between in-situ and OC trend is achieved using the Mann- Kendall test. The Mediterranean trend map obtained applying this test to the de-seasonalized OC time series shows that, in accordance with the results of many authors, the case 1 waters of Mediterranean sea are characterized by a negative trend. However, the most intense trend signals, both negative

  4. Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

    2015-01-01

    Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over

  5. Trend estimates of AERONET-observed and model-simulated AOTs between 1993 and 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope±2σ = 0.75 ± 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

  6. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    PubMed

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data.

  7. Assigning unknown parent groups to reduce bias in genomic evaluations of final score in US Holsteins.

    PubMed

    Tsuruta, S; Misztal, I; Lourenco, D A L; Lawlor, T J

    2014-09-01

    Assigning unknown parent groups (UPG) in mixed-model equations using single-step genomic BLUP was investigated to reduce bias and to increase accuracy in genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV). The original UPG were defined based on the animal's birth year and the sex of the animal's unknown parents. Combining the last 2 UPG for the animals' birth years and separating the UPG for US and non-US Holsteins were considered in the redefinition. A full data set in the 2011 national genetic evaluation of final score in US Holsteins was used to calculate estimated breeding values (EBV) for validation, and a subset of the 2011 data, which excluded phenotypes recorded after 2007, was used to calculate GEBV for all animals, including 34,500 genotyped bulls. The EBV and GEBV in 2007 were compared with EBV in the 2011 full data. The last group effects for unknown sires and dams were overestimated with the GEBV model using the reduced 2007 data. The genetic trends from EBV in 2011 and GEBV in 2007 with the original UPG in the last few years demonstrated inflation, whereas GEBV with the redefined UPG by combining the last 2 groups showed deflation. On the other hand, the redefined UPG by separating for US and non-US Holsteins reduced the bias in GEBV. Regression coefficients smaller than unity for GEBV for young genotyped bulls with no daughters in 2007 on progeny deviations in 2011 also indicated inflation. The redefining of UPG reduced bias and slightly increased accuracy in GEBV for both US and non-US genotyped bulls. Rank correlations between GEBV in 2007 and in 2011 with the redefined UPG were higher than those with no UPG and the original UPG, especially for non-US bulls. Redefining of UPG in genomic evaluation could improve reliability of GEBV and provide correct genetic trends.

  8. Monitoring the aftermath of Flint drinking water contamination crisis: Another case of sampling bias?

    PubMed

    Goovaerts, Pierre

    2017-07-15

    The delay in reporting high levels of lead in Flint drinking water, following the city's switch to the Flint River as its water supply, was partially caused by the biased selection of sampling sites away from the lead pipe network. Since Flint returned to its pre-crisis source of drinking water, the State has been monitoring water lead levels (WLL) at selected "sentinel" sites. In a first phase that lasted two months, 739 residences were sampled, most of them bi-weekly, to determine the general health of the distribution system and to track temporal changes in lead levels. During the same period, water samples were also collected through a voluntary program whereby concerned citizens received free testing kits and conducted sampling on their own. State officials relied on the former data to demonstrate the steady improvement in water quality. A recent analysis of data collected by voluntary sampling revealed, however, an opposite trend with lead levels increasing over time. This paper looks at potential sampling bias to explain such differences. Although houses with higher WLL were more likely to be sampled repeatedly, voluntary sampling turned out to reproduce fairly well the main characteristics (i.e. presence of lead service lines (LSL), construction year) of Flint housing stock. State-controlled sampling was less representative; e.g., sentinel sites with LSL were mostly built between 1935 and 1950 in lower poverty areas, which might hamper our ability to disentangle the effects of LSL and premise plumbing (lead fixtures and pipes present within old houses) on WLL. Also, there was no sentinel site with LSL in two of the most impoverished wards, including where the percentage of children with elevated blood lead levels tripled following the switch in water supply. Correcting for sampling bias narrowed the gap between sampling programs, yet overall temporal trends are still opposite.

  9. Information filtering via biased heat conduction.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Zhou, Tao; Guo, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    The process of heat conduction has recently found application in personalized recommendation [Zhou et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 107, 4511 (2010)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. By decreasing the temperatures of small-degree objects, we present an improved algorithm, called biased heat conduction, which could simultaneously enhance the accuracy and diversity. Extensive experimental analyses demonstrate that the accuracy on MovieLens, Netflix, and Delicious datasets could be improved by 43.5%, 55.4% and 19.2%, respectively, compared with the standard heat conduction algorithm and also the diversity is increased or approximately unchanged. Further statistical analyses suggest that the present algorithm could simultaneously identify users' mainstream and special tastes, resulting in better performance than the standard heat conduction algorithm. This work provides a creditable way for highly efficient information filtering.

  10. Information filtering via biased heat conduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jian-Guo; Zhou, Tao; Guo, Qiang

    2011-09-01

    The process of heat conduction has recently found application in personalized recommendation [Zhou , Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA PNASA60027-842410.1073/pnas.1000488107107, 4511 (2010)], which is of high diversity but low accuracy. By decreasing the temperatures of small-degree objects, we present an improved algorithm, called biased heat conduction, which could simultaneously enhance the accuracy and diversity. Extensive experimental analyses demonstrate that the accuracy on MovieLens, Netflix, and Delicious datasets could be improved by 43.5%, 55.4% and 19.2%, respectively, compared with the standard heat conduction algorithm and also the diversity is increased or approximately unchanged. Further statistical analyses suggest that the present algorithm could simultaneously identify users' mainstream and special tastes, resulting in better performance than the standard heat conduction algorithm. This work provides a creditable way for highly efficient information filtering.

  11. Essentialism promotes children's inter-ethnic bias

    PubMed Central

    Diesendruck, Gil; Menahem, Roni

    2015-01-01

    The present study investigated the developmental foundation of the relation between social essentialism and attitudes. Forty-eight Jewish Israeli secular 6-year-olds were exposed to either a story emphasizing essentialism about ethnicity, or stories controlling for the salience of ethnicity or essentialism per se. After listening to a story, children's attitudes were assessed in a drawing and in an IAT task. Compared to the control conditions, children in the ethnic essentialism condition drew a Jewish and an Arab character as farther apart from each other, and the Jewish character with a more positive affect than the Arab character. Moreover, boys in the ethnic essentialism condition manifested a stronger bias in the IAT. These findings reveal an early link between essentialism and inter-group attitudes. PMID:26321992

  12. Are nested case-control studies biased?

    PubMed Central

    Langholz, Bryan; Richardson, David

    2014-01-01

    It has been recently asserted that the nested case-control study design, in which case-control sets are sampled from cohort risk sets, can introduce bias (“study design bias”) when there are lagged exposures. The bases for this claim include a theoretic and an “empirical evaluation” argument. Both of these arguments are examined and found to be incorrect. Appropriate methods to explore the performance of nested case-control study designs, analysis methods, and compute power and sample size from an existing cohort are described. This empirical evaluation approach relies on simulating case-control outcomes from risk sets in the cohort from which the case-control study is to be performed. Because it is based on the underlying cohort structure, the empirical evaluation can provide an assessment that is tailored to the specific characteristics of the study under consideration. The methods are illustrated using samples from the Colorado Plateau uranium miners cohort. PMID:19289963

  13. Intergroup time bias and racialized social relations.

    PubMed

    Vala, Jorge; Pereira, Cícero Roberto; Oliveira Lima, Marcus Eugênio; Leyens, Jacques-Philippe

    2012-04-01

    Within the framework of intergroup relations, the authors analyzed the time people spent evaluating ingroup and outgroup members. They hypothesized that White participants take longer to evaluate White targets than Black targets. In four experiments, White participants were slower to form impressions of White than of Black people; that is, they showed an intergroup time bias (ITB). In Study 1 (N = 60), the ITB correlated with implicit prejudice and homogeneity. Study 2 (N = 60) showed that the ITB was independent of the type of trait in question (nonstereotypical vs. stereotypical). Study 3 (N = 100) demonstrated that ITB correlates with racism measured 3 months beforehand, is independent of motivation to control prejudice, and is not an epiphenomenon of homogeneity. In Study 4 (N = 40) participants not only showed the ITB in a racialized social context but also displayed it following a minimal group manipulation.

  14. Bias in regression estimates of manning's n

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wahl, Kenneth L.

    1994-01-01

    Selected equations for estimating roughness for gravel-bed streams were tested using a composite data set containing much of the data used to define the equations. All equations tested were found to significantly underestimate n for relatively low discharges. For floods about equal to the median annual peak discharge, Jarrett's equation overestimates n (median error = 10 percent) while the other equations tested showed no bias. Extrapolation of any of these equations to discharges greater than about 1.5 times the median annual peak discharge is presently unwarranted. The roughness of mountain streams is known to generally decrease as discharge and flow depth increases. The data, however, are presently not available to test the applicability of the equations to large flood discharges.

  15. A Self-Biasing Pulsed Depressed Collector

    SciTech Connect

    Kemp, Mark A.; Jensen, Aaron; Neilson, Jeff; /SLAC

    2014-05-29

    Depressed collectors have been utilized successfully for many years to improve the electrical efficiency of vacuum electron devices. Increasingly, pulsed, high-peak power accelerator applications are placing a premium on electrical efficiency. As RF systems are responsible for a large percentage of the overall energy usage at accelerator laboratories, methods to improve upon the state-of-the-art in pulsed high-power sources are desired. This paper presents a technique for self-biasing the stages in a multistage depressed collector. With this technique, the energy lost during the rise and fall times of the pulse can be recovered, separate power supplies are not needed, and existing modulators can be retrofitted. Calculations show that significant cost savings can be realized with the implementation of this device in high-power systems. In this paper, the technique is described along with experimental demonstration. (auth)

  16. Growth of oxide exchange bias layers

    DOEpatents

    Chaiken, Alison; Michel, Richard P.

    1998-01-01

    An oxide (NiO, CoO, NiCoO) antiferromagnetic exchange bias layer produced by ion beam sputtering of an oxide target in pure argon (Ar) sputtering gas, with no oxygen gas introduced into the system. Antiferromagnetic oxide layers are used, for example, in magnetoresistive readback heads to shift the hysteresis loops of ferromagnetic films away from the zero field axis. For example, NiO exchange bia layers have been fabricated using ion beam sputtering of an NiO target using Ar ions, with the substrate temperature at 200.degree. C., the ion beam voltage at 1000V and the beam current at 20 mA, with a deposition rate of about 0.2 .ANG./sec. The resulting NiO film was amorphous.

  17. Consensus Protein Design Without Phylogenetic Bias

    PubMed Central

    Jäckel, Christian; Bloom, Jesse D; Kast, Peter; Arnold, Frances H; Hilvert, Donald

    2010-01-01

    Consensus design is an appealing strategy for the stabilization of proteins. It exploits amino acid conservation in sets of homologous proteins to identify likely beneficial mutations. Nevertheless, its success depends on the phylogenetic diversity of the sequence set available. Here we show that randomization of a single protein represents a reliable alternative source of sequence diversity essentially free of phylogenetic bias. A small number of functional protein sequences selected from binary-patterned libraries suffices as input for consensus design of active enzymes that are easier to produce and substantially more stable than individual members of the starting data set. Although catalytic activity correlates less consistently with sequence conservation in these extensively randomized proteins, less extreme mutagenesis strategies might be adopted in practice to augment stability while maintaining function. PMID:20433850

  18. Selection bias and the perils of benchmarking.

    PubMed

    Denrell, Jerker

    2005-04-01

    To find the secrets of business success, what could be more natural than studying successful businesses? In fact, nothing could be more dangerous, warns this Stanford professor. Generalizing from the examples of successful companies is like generalizing about New England weather from data taken only in the summer. That's essentially what businesspeople do when they learn from good examples and what consultants, authors, and researchers do when they study only existing companies or--worse yet--only high-performing companies. They reach conclusions from unrepresentative data samples, falling into the classic statistical trap of selection bias. Drawing on a wealth of case studies, for instance, one researcher concluded that great leaders share two key traits: They persist, often despite initial failures, and they are able to persuade others to join them. But those traits are also the hallmarks of spectacularly unsuccessful entrepreneurs, who must persist in the face of failure to incur large losses and must be able to persuade others to pour their money down the drain. To discover what makes a business successful, then, managers should look at both successes and failures. Otherwise, they will overvalue risky business practices, seeing only those companies that won big and not the ones that lost dismally. They will not be able to tell if their current good fortune stems from smart business practices or if they are actually coasting on past accomplishments or good luck. Fortunately, economists have developed relatively simple tools that can correct for selection bias even when data about failed companies are hard to come by. Success may be inspirational, but managers are more likely to find the secrets of high performance if they give the stories of their competitors'failures as full a hearing as they do the stories of dazzling successes.

  19. Biased random walks on Kleinberg's spatial networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pan, Gui-Jun; Niu, Rui-Wu

    2016-12-01

    We investigate the problem of the particle or message that travels as a biased random walk toward a target node in Kleinberg's spatial network which is built from a d-dimensional (d = 2) regular lattice improved by adding long-range shortcuts with probability P(rij) ∼rij-α, where rij is the lattice distance between sites i and j, and α is a variable exponent. Bias is represented as a probability p of the packet to travel at every hop toward the node which has the smallest Manhattan distance to the target node. We study the mean first passage time (MFPT) for different exponent α and the scaling of the MFPT with the size of the network L. We find that there exists a threshold probability pth ≈ 0.5, for p ≥pth the optimal transportation condition is obtained with an optimal transport exponent αop = d, while for 0 < p pth, and increases with L less than a power law and get close to logarithmical law for 0 < p

  20. Assessing the Suitability of Historical PM(2.5) Element Measurements for Trend Analysis.

    PubMed

    Hyslop, Nicole P; Trzepla, Krystyna; White, Warren H

    2015-08-04

    The IMPROVE (Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments) network has characterized fine particulate matter composition at locations throughout the United States since 1988. A main objective of the network is to evaluate long-term trends in aerosol concentrations. Measurements inevitably advance over time, but changes in measurement technique have the potential to confound the interpretation of long-term trends. Problems of interpretation typically arise from changing biases, and changes in bias can be difficult to identify without comparison data that are consistent throughout the measurement series, which rarely exist. We created a consistent measurement series for exactly this purpose by reanalyzing the 15-year archives (1995-2009) of aerosol samples from three sites - Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Mount Rainier National Park, and Point Reyes National Seashore-as single batches using consistent analytical methods. In most cases, trend estimates based on the original and reanalysis measurements are statistically different for elements that were not measured above the detection limit consistently over the years (e.g., Na, Cl, Si, Ti, V, Mn). The original trends are more reliable for elements consistently measured above the detection limit. All but one of the 23 site-element series with detection rates >80% had statistically indistinguishable original and reanalysis trends (overlapping 95% confidence intervals).