Using genomics to characterize evolutionary potential for conservation of wild populations

PubMed Central

Harrisson, Katherine A; Pavlova, Alexandra; Telonis-Scott, Marina; Sunnucks, Paul

2014-01-01

Genomics promises exciting advances towards the important conservation goal of maximizing evolutionary potential, notwithstanding associated challenges. Here, we explore some of the complexity of adaptation genetics and discuss the strengths and limitations of genomics as a tool for characterizing evolutionary potential in the context of conservation management. Many traits are polygenic and can be strongly influenced by minor differences in regulatory networks and by epigenetic variation not visible in DNA sequence. Much of this critical complexity is difficult to detect using methods commonly used to identify adaptive variation, and this needs appropriate consideration when planning genomic screens, and when basing management decisions on genomic data. When the genomic basis of adaptation and future threats are well understood, it may be appropriate to focus management on particular adaptive traits. For more typical conservations scenarios, we argue that screening genome-wide variation should be a sensible approach that may provide a generalized measure of evolutionary potential that accounts for the contributions of small-effect loci and cryptic variation and is robust to uncertainty about future change and required adaptive response(s). The best conservation outcomes should be achieved when genomic estimates of evolutionary potential are used within an adaptive management framework. PMID:25553064

Soft systems thinking and social learning for adaptive management.

PubMed

Cundill, G; Cumming, G S; Biggs, D; Fabricius, C

2012-02-01

The success of adaptive management in conservation has been questioned and the objective-based management paradigm on which it is based has been heavily criticized. Soft systems thinking and social-learning theory expose errors in the assumption that complex systems can be dispassionately managed by objective observers and highlight the fact that conservation is a social process in which objectives are contested and learning is context dependent. We used these insights to rethink adaptive management in a way that focuses on the social processes involved in management and decision making. Our approach to adaptive management is based on the following assumptions: action toward a common goal is an emergent property of complex social relationships; the introduction of new knowledge, alternative values, and new ways of understanding the world can become a stimulating force for learning, creativity, and change; learning is contextual and is fundamentally about practice; and defining the goal to be addressed is continuous and in principle never ends. We believe five key activities are crucial to defining the goal that is to be addressed in an adaptive-management context and to determining the objectives that are desirable and feasible to the participants: situate the problem in its social and ecological context; raise awareness about alternative views of a problem and encourage enquiry and deconstruction of frames of reference; undertake collaborative actions; and reflect on learning. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Learning to manage a complex ecosystem: adaptive management and the Northwest Forest Plan.

Treesearch

George H. Stankey; Roger N. Clark; Bernard T. Bormann

2006-01-01

The Northwest Forest Plan (the Plan) identifies adaptive management as a central strategy for effective implementation. Despite this, there has been a lack of any systematic evaluation of its performance. This study is based on an extensive literature review, 50 interviews with resource managers and scientists involved with the Plan’s implementation, and a survey of...

An Agent-Based Optimization Framework for Engineered Complex Adaptive Systems with Application to Demand Response in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haghnevis, Moeed

The main objective of this research is to develop an integrated method to study emergent behavior and consequences of evolution and adaptation in engineered complex adaptive systems (ECASs). A multi-layer conceptual framework and modeling approach including behavioral and structural aspects is provided to describe the structure of a class of engineered complex systems and predict their future adaptive patterns. The approach allows the examination of complexity in the structure and the behavior of components as a result of their connections and in relation to their environment. This research describes and uses the major differences of natural complex adaptive systems (CASs) with artificial/engineered CASs to build a framework and platform for ECAS. While this framework focuses on the critical factors of an engineered system, it also enables one to synthetically employ engineering and mathematical models to analyze and measure complexity in such systems. In this way concepts of complex systems science are adapted to management science and system of systems engineering. In particular an integrated consumer-based optimization and agent-based modeling (ABM) platform is presented that enables managers to predict and partially control patterns of behaviors in ECASs. Demonstrated on the U.S. electricity markets, ABM is integrated with normative and subjective decision behavior recommended by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The approach integrates social networks, social science, complexity theory, and diffusion theory. Furthermore, it has unique and significant contribution in exploring and representing concrete managerial insights for ECASs and offering new optimized actions and modeling paradigms in agent-based simulation.

Embracing uncertainty, managing complexity: applying complexity thinking principles to transformation efforts in healthcare systems.

PubMed

Khan, Sobia; Vandermorris, Ashley; Shepherd, John; Begun, James W; Lanham, Holly Jordan; Uhl-Bien, Mary; Berta, Whitney

2018-03-21

Complexity thinking is increasingly being embraced in healthcare, which is often described as a complex adaptive system (CAS). Applying CAS to healthcare as an explanatory model for understanding the nature of the system, and to stimulate changes and transformations within the system, is valuable. A seminar series on systems and complexity thinking hosted at the University of Toronto in 2016 offered a number of insights on applications of CAS perspectives to healthcare that we explore here. We synthesized topics from this series into a set of six insights on how complexity thinking fosters a deeper understanding of accepted ideas in healthcare, applications of CAS to actors within the system, and paradoxes in applications of complexity thinking that may require further debate: 1) a complexity lens helps us better understand the nebulous term "context"; 2) concepts of CAS may be applied differently when actors are cognizant of the system in which they operate; 3) actor responses to uncertainty within a CAS is a mechanism for emergent and intentional adaptation; 4) acknowledging complexity supports patient-centred intersectional approaches to patient care; 5) complexity perspectives can support ways that leaders manage change (and transformation) in healthcare; and 6) complexity demands different ways of implementing ideas and assessing the system. To enhance our exploration of key insights, we augmented the knowledge gleaned from the series with key articles on complexity in the literature. Ultimately, complexity thinking acknowledges the "messiness" that we seek to control in healthcare and encourages us to embrace it. This means seeing challenges as opportunities for adaptation, stimulating innovative solutions to ensure positive adaptation, leveraging the social system to enable ideas to emerge and spread across the system, and even more important, acknowledging that these adaptive actions are part of system behaviour just as much as periods of stability are. By embracing uncertainty and adapting innovatively, complexity thinking enables system actors to engage meaningfully and comfortably in healthcare system transformation.

Adaptive management: a paradigm for remediation of public facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janecky, David R; Whicker, Jeffrey J; Doerr, Ted B

2009-01-01

Public facility restoration planning traditionally focused on response to natural disasters and hazardous materials accidental releases. These plans now need to integrate response to terrorist actions. Therefore, plans must address a wide range of potential vulnerabilities. Similar types of broad remediation planning are needed for restoration of waste and hazardous material handling areas and facilities. There are strong similarities in damage results and remediation activities between unintentional and terrorist actions; however, the uncertainties associated with terrorist actions result in a re-evaluation of approaches to planning. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far moremore » complex than in confined industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. Therefore, they arguably involve a superset of drivers, concerns and public agencies compared to other restoration efforts. This superset of conditions increases complexity of interactions, reduces our knowledge of the initial conditions, and even condenses the timeline for restoration response. Therefore, evaluations of alternative restoration management approaches developed for responding to terrorist actions provide useful knowledge for large, complex waste management projects. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the 'adaptive management' paradigm provides a constructive parallel operations paradigm for restoration of facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, multiple/simUltaneous public agency actions, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a facility and surrounding area(s) after a disruptive event suggest numerous advantages over preset linearly-structured plans by incorporating the flexibility and overlap of processes inherent in effective facility restoration. We discuss three restoration case studies (e.g., the Hart Senate Office Building anthrax restoration, Rocky Flats actinide remediation, and hurricane destruction restoration), that implement aspects of adaptive management but not a formal approach. We propose that more formal adoption of adaptive management principles could be a basis for more flexible standards to improve site-specific remediation plans under conditions of high uncertainty.« less

Confronting illusions of knowledge: how should we learn?

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

1999-01-01

Adaptive management. What is it and how can it help us learn? Bernard Bormann, a PNW Research Station scientist, is leading a study on the subject. He defines the term this way: the management of complex natural systems by building on common sense and learning from experience. Experience can often mean change. The challenge of implementing adaptive management is how to...

An Evolving Simulation/Gaming Process to Facilitate Adaptive Watershed Management in Northern Mountainous Thailand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barnaud, Cecile; Promburom, Tanya; Trebuil, Guy; Bousquet, Francois

2007-01-01

The decentralization of natural resource management provides an opportunity for communities to increase their participation in related decision making. Research should propose adapted methodologies enabling the numerous stakeholders of these complex socioecological settings to define their problems and identify agreed-on solutions. This article…

50 CFR 218.177 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... adaptive management. 218.177 Section 218.177 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE..., Development, Test, and Evaluation Activities in the Naval Sea System Command (NAVSEA) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Keyport Range Complex and the Associated Proposed Extensions Study Area § 218.177 Renewal...

50 CFR 218.177 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... adaptive management. 218.177 Section 218.177 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE..., Development, Test, and Evaluation Activities in the Naval Sea System Command (NAVSEA) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Keyport Range Complex and the Associated Proposed Extensions Study Area § 218.177 Renewal...

50 CFR 218.177 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... adaptive management. 218.177 Section 218.177 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE..., Development, Test, and Evaluation Activities in the Naval Sea System Command (NAVSEA) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Keyport Range Complex and the Associated Proposed Extensions Study Area § 218.177 Renewal...

50 CFR 218.177 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... adaptive management. 218.177 Section 218.177 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE..., Development, Test, and Evaluation Activities in the Naval Sea System Command (NAVSEA) Naval Undersea Warfare Center (NUWC) Keyport Range Complex and the Associated Proposed Extensions Study Area § 218.177 Renewal...

Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, J. Angus; Watts, Robyn J.; Allan, Catherine; Conallin, John C.

2018-03-01

Adaptive management enables managers to work with complexity and uncertainty, and to respond to changing biophysical and social conditions. Amid considerable uncertainty over the benefits of environmental flows, governments are embracing adaptive management as a means to inform decision making. This Special Issue of Environmental Management presents examples of adaptive management of environmental flows and addresses claims that there are few examples of its successful implementation. It arose from a session at the 11th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics held in Australia, and is consequently dominated by papers from Australia. We classified the papers according to the involvement of researchers, managers and the local community in adaptive management. Five papers report on approaches developed by researchers, and one paper on a community-led program; these case studies currently have little impact on decision making. Six papers provide examples involving water managers and researchers, and two papers provide examples involving water managers and the local community. There are no papers where researchers, managers and local communities all contribute equally to adaptive management. Successful adaptive management of environmental flows occurs more often than is perceived. The final paper explores why successes are rarely reported, suggesting a lack of emphasis on reflection on management practices. One major challenge is to increase the documentation of successful adaptive management, so that benefits of learning extend beyond the project where it takes place. Finally, moving towards greater involvement of all stakeholders is critical if we are to realize the benefits of adaptive management for improving outcomes from environmental flows.

Improving our legacy: Incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, J.J.

2011-01-01

The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ???25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation. ?? 2010 .

Improving our legacy: incorporation of adaptive management into state wildlife action plans.

PubMed

Fontaine, Joseph J

2011-05-01

The loss of biodiversity is a mounting concern, but despite numerous attempts there are few large scale conservation efforts that have proven successful in reversing current declines. Given the challenge of biodiversity conservation, there is a need to develop strategic conservation plans that address species declines even with the inherent uncertainty in managing multiple species in complex environments. In 2002, the State Wildlife Grant program was initiated to fulfill this need, and while not explicitly outlined by Congress follows the fundamental premise of adaptive management, 'Learning by doing'. When action is necessary, but basic biological information and an understanding of appropriate management strategies are lacking, adaptive management enables managers to be proactive in spite of uncertainty. However, regardless of the strengths of adaptive management, the development of an effective adaptive management framework is challenging. In a review of 53 State Wildlife Action Plans, I found a keen awareness by planners that adaptive management was an effective method for addressing biodiversity conservation, but the development and incorporation of explicit adaptive management approaches within each plan remained elusive. Only ~25% of the plans included a framework for how adaptive management would be implemented at the project level within their state. There was, however, considerable support across plans for further development and implementation of adaptive management. By furthering the incorporation of adaptive management principles in conservation plans and explicitly outlining the decision making process, states will be poised to meet the pending challenges to biodiversity conservation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The role of adaptive management as an operational approach for resource management agencies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, B.L.

1999-01-01

In making resource management decisions, agencies use a variety of approaches that involve different levels of political concern, historical precedence, data analyses, and evaluation. Traditional decision-making approaches have often failed to achieve objectives for complex problems in large systems, such as the Everglades or the Colorado River. I contend that adaptive management is the best approach available to agencies for addressing this type of complex problem, although its success has been limited thus far. Traditional decision-making approaches have been fairly successful at addressing relatively straightforward problems in small, replicated systems, such as management of trout in small streams or pulp production in forests. However, this success may be jeopardized as more users place increasing demands on these systems. Adaptive management has received little attention from agencies for addressing problems in small-scale systems, but I suggest that it may be a useful approach for creating a holistic view of common problems and developing guidelines that can then be used in simpler, more traditional approaches to management. Although adaptive management may be more expensive to initiate than traditional approaches, it may be less expensive in the long run if it leads to more effective management. The overall goal of adaptive management is not to maintain an optimal condition of the resource, but to develop an optimal management capacity. This is accomplished by maintaining ecological resilience that allows the system to react to inevitable stresses, and generating flexibility in institutions and stakeholders that allows managers to react when conditions change. The result is that, rather than managing for a single, optimal state, we manage within a range of acceptable outcomes while avoiding catastrophes and irreversible negative effects. Copyright ?? 1999 by The Resilience Alliance.

Integrating Collaboration, Adaptive Management, and Scenario-Planning to Address Rapid Change: Experiences at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caves, J. K.; Bodner, G.; Simms, K.; Fisher, L.; Robertson, T.

2012-12-01

There is growing recognition that public lands cannot be managed as islands; rather, land management must address the ecological, social, and temporal complexity that often spans jurisdictions and traditional planning horizons. Collaborative decision-making and adaptive management (CAM) have been promoted as methods to reconcile competing societal demands and respond to complex ecosystem dynamics. We present the experiences of land managers and stakeholders in using CAM at Las Cienegas National Conservation Area (LCNCA), a highly valued site under the jurisdiction of the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). The CAM process at Las Cienegas is marked by strong stakeholder engagement, with four core elements: 1) shared watershed goals with measurable resource objectives; 2) mechanisms to incorporate new information into decision-making; 3) efforts to make information increasingly relevant and reliable; and 4) shared learning to improve both the process and management actions. The combination of stakeholder engagement and adaptive management has led to agreement on contentious issues, more innovative solutions, and more effective land management. Yet the region is now experiencing rapid changes outside managers' control—including climate change, human population growth, and reduced federal budgets—with large but unpredictable impacts on natural resources. While CAM experience provides a strong foundation for making the difficult and contentious management decisions that such changes are likely to require, neither collaboration nor adaptive management provides a sufficient structure for addressing uncontrollable and unpredictable change. As a result, LCNCA is exploring two specific modifications to CAM that may better address emerging challenges, including: 1) Creating nested resource objectives to distinguish between those objectives which may be crucial from those which may hinder a flexible response to climate change, and 2) Incorporating scenario planning into CAM to explore how climate change may interact with other drivers and alter options for the future, to identify robust management, and to prioritize ecological monitoring efforts. The experiences at LCNCA demonstrate how collaboration and adaptive management can be used to improve social and environmental outcomes and, with a few modifications, may help address the complexity and change that threatens to overwhelm even the best efforts to sustain public lands.

Heuristic Constraint Management Methods in Multidimensional Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Born, Sebastian; Frey, Andreas

2017-01-01

Although multidimensional adaptive testing (MAT) has been proven to be highly advantageous with regard to measurement efficiency when several highly correlated dimensions are measured, there are few operational assessments that use MAT. This may be due to issues of constraint management, which is more complex in MAT than it is in unidimensional…

Complex adaptive chronic care.

PubMed

Martin, Carmel; Sturmberg, Joachim

2009-06-01

The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is widely taken up as the universal operational framework for redesigning health systems to address the increasing chronic disease burden of an ageing population. Chronic care encompasses health promotion, prevention, self management, disease control, treatment and palliation to address 'chronicity' of long journeys through disease, illness and care in the varying contexts of complex health systems. Yet at an operational level, CCM activities are predominantly based on an evidence-base of discreet chronic disease interventions in specific settings; and their demonstrable impact is limited to processes of select disease management such as diabetes in specific disease management programs. This paper proposes a framework that makes sense of the nature of chronicity and its multiple dimensions beyond disease and argues for a set of building blocks and leverage points that should constitute the starting points for 'redesign'? Complex Adaptive Chronic Care is proposed as an idea for an explanatory and implementation framework for addressing chronicity in existing and future chronic care models. Chronicity is overtly conceptualized to encompass the phenomena of an individual journey, with simple and complicated, complex and chaotic phases, through long term asymptomatic disease to bodily dysfunction and illness, located in family and communities. Chronicity encompasses trajectories of self-care and health care, as health, illness and disease co-exist and co-evolve in the setting of primary care, local care networks and at times institutions. A systems approach to individuals in their multi-layered networks making sense of and optimizing experiences of their chronic illness would build on core values and agency around a local vision of health, empowerment of individuals and adaptive leadership, and it responds in line with the local values inherent in the community's disease-based knowledge and the local service's history and dynamics. Complex Adaptive Chronic Care exceeds the current notions of disease management as an endpoint. Primary care team members are system adaptors in partnership with individuals constructing their care and system leadership in response to chronic illness, and enable healthy resilience as well as personal healing and support. Outcomes of complex adaptive chronic care are the emergence of health in individuals and communities through adaptability, self-organization and empowerment. Chronic care reform from within a complex adaptive system framework is bottom up and emergent and stands in stark contrast to (but has to co-exist with) the prevailing protocol based disease care rewarding selective surrogate indicators of disease control. Frameworks such as the Chronic Care Model provide guidance, but do not replace individual experience, local adaptive leadership and responsiveness. The awareness of complexity means opening up problems to a different reality demanding different set of questions and approaches to answer them.

Using complexity science and negotiation theory to resolve boundary-crossing water issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Islam, Shafiqul; Susskind, Lawrence

2018-07-01

Many water governance and management issues are complex. The complexity of these issues is related to crossing of multiple boundaries: political, social and jurisdictional, as well as physical, ecological and biogeochemical. Resolution of these issues usually requires interactions of many parties with conflicting values and interests operating across multiple boundaries and scales to make decisions. The interdependence and feedback among interacting variables, processes, actors and institutions are hard to model and difficult to forecast. Thus, decision-making related to complex water problems needs be contingent and adaptive. This paper draws on a number of ideas from complexity science and negotiation theory that may make it easier to cope with the complexities and difficulties of managing boundary crossing water disputes. It begins with the Water Diplomacy Framework that was developed and tested over the past several years. Then, it uses three key ideas from complexity science (interdependence and interconnectedness; uncertainty and feedback; emergence and adaptation) and three from negotiation theory (stakeholder identification and engagement; joint fact finding; and value creation through option generation) to show how application of these ideas can help enhance effectiveness of water management.

Age-related patterns of forest complexity and carbon storage in pine and aspen-birch ecosystems of northern Minnesota, USA

Treesearch

John B. Bradford; Douglas N. Kastendick

2010-01-01

Forest managers are seeking strategies to create stands that can adapt to new climatic conditions and simultaneously help mitigate increases in atmospheric CO2. Adaptation strategies often focus on enhancing resilience by maximizing forest complexity in terms of species composition and size structure, while mitigation involves sustaining carbon...

Opportunities to utilize traditional phenological knowledge to support adaptive management of social-ecological systems vulnerable to changes in climate and fire regimes

Treesearch

Christopher A. Armatas; Tyron J. Venn; Brooke B. McBride; Alan E. Watson; Steve J. Carver

2016-01-01

The field of adaptive management has been embraced by researchers and managers in the United States as an approach to improve natural resource stewardship in the face of uncertainty and complex environmental problems. Integrating multiple knowledge sources and feedback mechanisms is an important step in this approach. Our objective is to contribute to the...

Pilot Inventory Complex Adaptive System (PICAS): An Artificial Life Approach to Managing Pilot Retention.

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-03-01

mates) and base their behaviors on this interactive information. This alone defines the nature of a complex adaptive system and it is based on this...world policy initiatives. 2.3.4. User Interaction Building the model with extensive user interaction gives the entire system a more appealing feel...complex behavior that hopefully mimics trends observed in reality . User interaction also allows for easier justification of assumptions used within

A conceptual framework for addressing complexity and unfolding transition dynamics when developing sustainable adaptation strategies in urban water management.

PubMed

Fratini, C F; Elle, M; Jensen, M B; Mikkelsen, P S

2012-01-01

To achieve a successful and sustainable adaptation to climate change we need to transform the way we think about change. Much water management research has focused on technical innovation with a range of new solutions developed to achieve a 'more sustainable and integrated urban water management cycle'. But Danish municipalities and utility companies are struggling to bring such solutions into practice. 'Green infrastructure', for example, requires the consideration of a larger range of aspects related to the urban context than the traditional urban water system optimization. There is the need for standardized methods and guidelines to organize transdisciplinary processes where different types of knowledge and perspectives are taken into account. On the basis of the macro-meso-micro pattern inspired by complexity science and transition theory, we developed a conceptual framework to organize processes addressing the complexity characterizing urban water management in the context of climate change. In this paper the framework is used to organize a research process aiming at understanding and unfolding urban dynamics for sustainable transition. The final goal is to enable local authorities and utilities to create the basis for managing and catalysing the technical and organizational innovation necessary for a sustainable transition towards climate change adaptation in urban areas.

Soliciting scientific information and beliefs in predictive modeling and adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glynn, P. D.; Voinov, A. A.; Shapiro, C. D.

2015-12-01

Post-normal science requires public engagement and adaptive corrections in addressing issues with high complexity and uncertainty. An adaptive management framework is presented for the improved management of natural resources and environments through a public participation process. The framework solicits the gathering and transformation and/or modeling of scientific information but also explicitly solicits the expression of participant beliefs. Beliefs and information are compared, explicitly discussed for alignments or misalignments, and ultimately melded back together as a "knowledge" basis for making decisions. An effort is made to recognize the human or participant biases that may affect the information base and the potential decisions. In a separate step, an attempt is made to recognize and predict the potential "winners" and "losers" (perceived or real) of any decision or action. These "winners" and "losers" include present human communities with different spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics as well as more dispersed or more diffusely characterized regional or global communities. "Winners" and "losers" may also include future human communities as well as communities of other biotic species. As in any adaptive management framework, assessment of predictions, iterative follow-through and adaptation of policies or actions is essential, and commonly very difficult or impossible to achieve. Recognizing beforehand the limits of adaptive management is essential. More generally, knowledge of the behavioral and economic sciences and of ethics and sociology will be key to a successful implementation of this adaptive management framework. Knowledge of biogeophysical processes will also be essential, but by definition of the issues being addressed, will always be incomplete and highly uncertain. The human dimensions of the issues addressed and the participatory processes used carry their own complexities and uncertainties. Some ideas and principles are provided that may help guide and implement the proposed adaptive management framework and its public and stakeholder engagement processes. Examples and characteristics of issues that could be beneficially addressed through the proposed framework will also be presented.

Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Richard M. T.; Semmens, Darius J.

2009-01-01

The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Boyd, James W.; Macauley, Molly K.; Scarlett, Lynn; Shapiro, Carl D.; Williams, Byron K.

2018-05-07

Executive Summary—OverviewNatural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans.This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts.Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on resource systems, both must confront the analytical challenges of systems modeling—in terms of complexity, dynamics, and uncertainty.Given this affinity, the integration of ecosystem services analysis and adaptive management poses few conceptual hurdles. In this report, we synthesize discussions from two workshops that considered ways in which adaptive management approaches and ecosystem service concepts may be complementary, such that integrating them into a common framework may lead to improved natural resource management outcomes. Although the literature on adaptive management and ecosystem services is vast and growing, the report focuses specifically on the integration of these two concepts rather than aiming to provide new definitions or an indepth review or primer of the concepts individually.Key issues considered include the bidirectional links between adaptive decision making and ecosystem services, as well as the potential benefits and inevitable challenges arising in the development and use of an integrated framework. Specifically, the workshops addressed the following questions:How can application of ecosystem service analysis within an adaptive decision process improve the outcomes of management and advance understanding of ecosystem service identification, production, and valuation?How can these concepts be integrated in concept and practice?What are the constraints and challenges to integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services?And, should the integration of these concepts be moved forward to wider application—and if so, how?

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Byron K.; Brown, Eleanor D.

2014-02-01

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.

Understanding adolescent type 1 diabetes self-management as an adaptive process: A grounded theory approach.

PubMed

Chilton, Roy; Pires-Yfantouda, Renata

2015-01-01

To develop a conceptual understanding of the process of adapting to the self-management of type 1 diabetes during adolescence. Participants were recruited from a National Health Service paediatric diabetes service within the south-west of England which runs six countywide diabetes clinics. Thirteen interviews were conducted using a social constructivist grounded theory approach. The findings illustrate how self-management can be understood in terms of a continuum-based framework, ranging from difficulties with, to successful self-management. Adaptation within the continuum can further be understood by specific transitional phases and process mechanisms, providing further depth to individuals' experiences of adaptation. This investigation provides a conceptual understanding of the complex issues adolescents encounter while adapting to and integrating a diabetes self-management regime into their lives. It provides an invaluable framework for exploring psychological mechanisms and contextualising them within a self-management continuum. Implications for healthcare professionals are discussed and further research proposes whether the model could be applicable to other chronic illnesses.

Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management.

PubMed

West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

2016-09-01

Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of 'knowledge work' and Westley's (2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers-'managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics-scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the 'doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

Rethinking Social Barriers to Effective Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

West, Simon; Schultz, Lisen; Bekessy, Sarah

2016-09-01

Adaptive management is an approach to environmental management based on learning-by-doing, where complexity, uncertainty, and incomplete knowledge are acknowledged and management actions are treated as experiments. However, while adaptive management has received significant uptake in theory, it remains elusively difficult to enact in practice. Proponents have blamed social barriers and have called for social science contributions. We address this gap by adopting a qualitative approach to explore the development of an ecological monitoring program within an adaptive management framework in a public land management organization in Australia. We ask what practices are used to enact the monitoring program and how do they shape learning? We elicit a rich narrative through extensive interviews with a key individual, and analyze the narrative using thematic analysis. We discuss our results in relation to the concept of `knowledge work' and Westley's 2002) framework for interpreting the strategies of adaptive managers—`managing through, in, out and up.' We find that enacting the program is conditioned by distinct and sometimes competing logics—scientific logics prioritizing experimentation and learning, public logics emphasizing accountability and legitimacy, and corporate logics demanding efficiency and effectiveness. In this context, implementing adaptive management entails practices of translation to negotiate tensions between objective and situated knowledge, external experts and organizational staff, and collegiate and hierarchical norms. Our contribution embraces the `doing' of learning-by-doing and marks a shift from conceptualizing the social as an external barrier to adaptive management to be removed to an approach that situates adaptive management as social knowledge practice.

A review of human factors challenges of complex adaptive systems: discovering and understanding chaos in human performance.

PubMed

Karwowski, Waldemar

2012-12-01

In this paper, the author explores a need for a greater understanding of the true nature of human-system interactions from the perspective of the theory of complex adaptive systems, including the essence of complexity, emergent properties of system behavior, nonlinear systems dynamics, and deterministic chaos. Human performance, more often than not, constitutes complex adaptive phenomena with emergent properties that exhibit nonlinear dynamical (chaotic) behaviors. The complexity challenges in the design and management of contemporary work systems, including service systems, are explored. Examples of selected applications of the concepts of nonlinear dynamics to the study of human physical performance are provided. Understanding and applications of the concepts of theory of complex adaptive and dynamical systems should significantly improve the effectiveness of human-centered design efforts of a large system of systems. Performance of many contemporary work systems and environments may be sensitive to the initial conditions and may exhibit dynamic nonlinear properties and chaotic system behaviors. Human-centered design of emergent human-system interactions requires application of the theories of nonlinear dynamics and complex adaptive system. The success of future human-systems integration efforts requires the fusion of paradigms, knowledge, design principles, and methodologies of human factors and ergonomics with those of the science of complex adaptive systems as well as modern systems engineering.

Adaptive capacity and community-based natural resource management.

PubMed

Armitage, Derek

2005-06-01

Why do some community-based natural resource management strategies perform better than others? Commons theorists have approached this question by developing institutional design principles to address collective choice situations, while other analysts have critiqued the underlying assumptions of community-based resource management. However, efforts to enhance community-based natural resource management performance also require an analysis of exogenous and endogenous variables that influence how social actors not only act collectively but do so in ways that respond to changing circumstances, foster learning, and build capacity for management adaptation. Drawing on examples from northern Canada and Southeast Asia, this article examines the relationship among adaptive capacity, community-based resource management performance, and the socio-institutional determinants of collective action, such as technical, financial, and legal constraints, and complex issues of politics, scale, knowledge, community and culture. An emphasis on adaptive capacity responds to a conceptual weakness in community-based natural resource management and highlights an emerging research and policy discourse that builds upon static design principles and the contested concepts in current management practice.

Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a)

EPA Science Inventory

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex intern...

Health care organizations as complex systems: new perspectives on design and management.

PubMed

McDaniel, Reuben R; Driebe, Dean J; Lanham, Holly Jordan

2013-01-01

We discuss the impact of complexity science on the design and management of health care organizations over the past decade. We provide an overview of complexity science issues and their impact on thinking about health care systems, particularly with the rising importance of information systems. We also present a complexity science perspective on current issues in today's health care organizations and suggest ways that this perspective might help in approaching these issues. We review selected research, focusing on work in which we participated, to identify specific examples of applications of complexity science. We then take a look at information systems in health care organizations from a complexity viewpoint. Complexity science is a fundamentally different way of understanding nature and has influenced the thinking of scholars and practitioners as they have attempted to understand health care organizations. Many scholars study health care organizations as complex adaptive systems and through this perspective develop new management strategies. Most important, perhaps, is the understanding that attention to relationships and interdependencies is critical for developing effective management strategies. Increased understanding of complexity science can enhance the ability of researchers and practitioners to develop new ways of understanding and improving health care organizations. This analysis opens new vistas for scholars and practitioners attempting to understand health care organizations as complex adaptive systems. The analysis holds value for those already familiar with this approach as well as those who may not be as familiar.

Leadership Behaviors of Management for Complex Adaptive Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

arson • The Five Dysfunctions of a Team - Patrick M. Lencioni Agile Development Practices • Agile Project Management with Scrum – Ken Schwaber...and down to the individual and team level – Relationships are not defined hierarchically, but rather through interactions across References: Mike...n – Consisting of parts intricately combined © Copyright 2009 Northrop GrummanCopyright 2010 Northrop Grumman 5 Predictable or Adaptive Software/IT

Improving processes through evolutionary optimization.

PubMed

Clancy, Thomas R

2011-09-01

As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies on complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 18th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, I discuss methods to optimize complex healthcare processes through learning, adaptation, and evolutionary planning.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach.

PubMed

Laghari, Samreen; Niazi, Muaz A

2016-01-01

Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach.

Adapting to the effects of climate change [Chapter 14

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky

2018-01-01

Adapting to climate change, or adjusting to current or future climate and its effects (Noble et al. 2014), is critical to minimizing the risks associated with climate change impacts. Adaptation actions can vary from passive (e.g., a "wait and see" approach), to relatively simple (e.g., increasing harvest rotation age), to complex (e.g., managing forest...

Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

2011-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

2010-01-01

While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

Managing protected areas under climate change: challenges and priorities.

PubMed

Rannow, Sven; Macgregor, Nicholas A; Albrecht, Juliane; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Förster, Michael; Heiland, Stefan; Janauer, Georg; Morecroft, Mike D; Neubert, Marco; Sarbu, Anca; Sienkiewicz, Jadwiga

2014-10-01

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the "traditional" conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.

Is it possible to implement a complex adaptive systems approach for marine systems? The experience of Italy and the Adriatic Sea.

PubMed

Bigagli, Emanuele

2017-11-15

•This paper evaluates the implementation of the MSFD in the Adriatic Sea.•The MSFD is the first policy for marine complex adaptive systems in the EU.•Ecological and jurisdictional boundaries overlap and cross-border cooperation is low.•Integrative assessments of marine systems may be impossible to achieve.•Relative isolation of theoretical approaches and management practices.

Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birge, Hannah E.; Bevans, Rebecca A.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Baer, Sara G.; Wall, Diana H.

2016-01-01

Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services.

Towards Self-adaptation for Dependable Service-Oriented Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cardellini, Valeria; Casalicchio, Emiliano; Grassi, Vincenzo; Lo Presti, Francesco; Mirandola, Raffaela

Increasingly complex information systems operating in dynamic environments ask for management policies able to deal intelligently and autonomously with problems and tasks. An attempt to deal with these aspects can be found in the Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) paradigm that foresees the creation of business applications from independently developed services, where services and applications build up complex dependencies. Therefore the dependability of SOA systems strongly depends on their ability to self-manage and adapt themselves to cope with changes in the operating conditions and to meet the required dependability with a minimum of resources. In this paper we propose a model-based approach to the realization of self-adaptable SOA systems, aimed at the fulfillment of dependability requirements. Specifically, we provide a methodology driving the system adaptation and we discuss the architectural issues related to its implementation. To bring this approach to fruition, we developed a prototype tool and we show the results that can be achieved with a simple example.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

PubMed Central

McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

Adaptive management for ecosystem services (j/a) | Science ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with manage

A resource management architecture based on complex network theory in cloud computing federation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zehua; Zhang, Xuejie

2011-10-01

Cloud Computing Federation is a main trend of Cloud Computing. Resource Management has significant effect on the design, realization, and efficiency of Cloud Computing Federation. Cloud Computing Federation has the typical characteristic of the Complex System, therefore, we propose a resource management architecture based on complex network theory for Cloud Computing Federation (abbreviated as RMABC) in this paper, with the detailed design of the resource discovery and resource announcement mechanisms. Compare with the existing resource management mechanisms in distributed computing systems, a Task Manager in RMABC can use the historical information and current state data get from other Task Managers for the evolution of the complex network which is composed of Task Managers, thus has the advantages in resource discovery speed, fault tolerance and adaptive ability. The result of the model experiment confirmed the advantage of RMABC in resource discovery performance.

A Distributed Value of Information (VoI)-Based Approach for Mission-Adaptive Context-Aware Information Management and Presentation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-05-16

metrics involve regulating automation of complex systems , such as aircraft .12 Additionally, adaptive management of content in user interfaces has also...both the user and environmental context would aid in deciding how to present the information to the Warfighter. The prototype system currently...positioning system , and rate sensors can provide user - specific context to disambiguate physiologic data. The consumer “quantified self” market has driven

Implementation of Environmental Flows for Intermittent River Systems: Adaptive Management and Stakeholder Participation Facilitate Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conallin, John; Wilson, Emma; Campbell, Josh

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic pressure on freshwater ecosystems is increasing, and often leading to unacceptable social-ecological outcomes. This is even more prevalent in intermittent river systems where many are already heavily modified, or human encroachment is increasing. Although adaptive management approaches have the potential to aid in providing the framework to consider the complexities of intermittent river systems and improve utility within the management of these systems, success has been variable. This paper looks at the application of an adaptive management pilot project within an environmental flows program in an intermittent stream (Tuppal Creek) in the Murray Darling Basin, Australia. The program focused on stakeholder involvement, participatory decision-making, and simple monitoring as the basis of an adaptive management approach. The approach found that by building trust and ownership through concentrating on inclusiveness and transparency, partnerships between government agencies and landholders were developed. This facilitated a willingness to accept greater risks and unintended consequences allowing implementation to occur.

Operations management approach to hospitals.

PubMed

Harvey, J; Duguay, C R

1988-06-01

An operations management systems approach can be a useful tool for coordinating and planning in a complex organization. The authors argue for adapting such an approach to health care from the manufacturing industries in order to facilitate strategy formulation, communication and implementation.

Data management in the mission data system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wagner, David A.

2005-01-01

As spacecraft evolve from simple embedded devices to become more sophisticated computing platforms with complex behaviors it is increasingly necessary to model and manage the flow of data, and to provide uniform models for managing data that promote adaptability, yet pay heed to the physical limitations of the embedded and space environments.

Adapting livestock management to spatio-temporal heterogeneity in semi-arid rangelands.

PubMed

Jakoby, O; Quaas, M F; Baumgärtner, S; Frank, K

2015-10-01

Management strategies in rotational grazing systems differ in their level of complexity and adaptivity. Different components of such grazing strategies are expected to allow for adaptation to environmental heterogeneities in space and time. However, most models investigating general principles of rangeland management strategies neglect spatio-temporal system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of environmental variables. We developed an ecological-economic rangeland model that combines a spatially explicit farm structure with intra-annual time steps. This allows investigating different management components in rotational grazing systems (including stocking and rotation rules) and evaluating their effect on the ecological and economic states of semi-arid grazing systems. Our results show that adaptive stocking is less sensitive to overstocking compared to a constant stocking strategy. Furthermore, the rotation rule becomes important only at stocking numbers that maximize expected income. Altogether, the best of the tested strategies is adaptive stocking combined with a rotation that adapts to both spatial forage availability and seasonality. This management strategy maximises mean income and at the same time maintains the rangeland in a viable condition. However, we could also show that inappropriate adaptation that neglects seasonality even leads to deterioration. Rangelands characterised by higher inter-annual climate variability show a higher risk of income losses under a non-adaptive stocking rule, and non-adaptive rotation is least able to buffer increasing climate variability. Overall, all important system properties including seasonality and spatial heterogeneity of available resources need to be considered when designing an appropriate rangeland management system. Resulting adaptive rotational grazing strategies can be valuable for improving management and mitigating income risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Systems fragility: The sociology of chaos.

PubMed

Hodges, Lori R

2016-01-01

This article examines the concept of community fragility in emergency management from a systems perspective. Using literature that addresses fragility in four areas of complex systems, including ecosystems, social systems, sociotechnical systems, and complex adaptive systems, a theoretical framework focused on the emergency management field is created. These findings illustrate how community fragility factors can be used in the emergency management field to not only improve overall outcomes after disaster but also build less fragile systems and communities in preparation for future disasters.

A tale of two rain gardens: Barriers and bridges to adaptive management of urban stormwater in Cleveland, Ohio.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Shuster, William D; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Furio, Brooke; Albro, Sandra L; Gardiner, Mary; Spring, MaLisa; Green, Olivia Odom

2016-12-01

Green infrastructure installations such as rain gardens and bioswales are increasingly regarded as viable tools to mitigate stormwater runoff at the parcel level. The use of adaptive management to implement and monitor green infrastructure projects as experimental attempts to manage stormwater has not been adequately explored as a way to optimize green infrastructure performance or increase social and political acceptance. Efforts to improve stormwater management through green infrastructure suffer from the complexity of overlapping jurisdictional boundaries, as well as interacting social and political forces that dictate the flow, consumption, conservation and disposal of urban wastewater flows. Within this urban milieu, adaptive management-rigorous experimentation applied as policy-can inform new wastewater management techniques such as the implementation of green infrastructure projects. In this article, we present a narrative of scientists and practitioners working together to apply an adaptive management approach to green infrastructure implementation for stormwater management in Cleveland, Ohio. In Cleveland, contextual legal requirements and environmental factors created an opportunity for government researchers, stormwater managers and community organizers to engage in the development of two distinct sets of rain gardens, each borne of unique social, economic and environmental processes. In this article we analyze social and political barriers to applying adaptive management as a framework for implementing green infrastructure experiments as policy. We conclude with a series of lessons learned and a reflection on the prospects for adaptive management to facilitate green infrastructure implementation for improved stormwater management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Internet of Things, Self-Organizing and Other Complex Adaptive Communication Networks: A Cognitive Agent-Based Computing Approach

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Computer Networks have a tendency to grow at an unprecedented scale. Modern networks involve not only computers but also a wide variety of other interconnected devices ranging from mobile phones to other household items fitted with sensors. This vision of the "Internet of Things" (IoT) implies an inherent difficulty in modeling problems. Purpose It is practically impossible to implement and test all scenarios for large-scale and complex adaptive communication networks as part of Complex Adaptive Communication Networks and Environments (CACOONS). The goal of this study is to explore the use of Agent-based Modeling as part of the Cognitive Agent-based Computing (CABC) framework to model a Complex communication network problem. Method We use Exploratory Agent-based Modeling (EABM), as part of the CABC framework, to develop an autonomous multi-agent architecture for managing carbon footprint in a corporate network. To evaluate the application of complexity in practical scenarios, we have also introduced a company-defined computer usage policy. Results The conducted experiments demonstrated two important results: Primarily CABC-based modeling approach such as using Agent-based Modeling can be an effective approach to modeling complex problems in the domain of IoT. Secondly, the specific problem of managing the Carbon footprint can be solved using a multiagent system approach. PMID:26812235

Adaptive management for soil ecosystem services.

PubMed

Birgé, Hannah E; Bevans, Rebecca A; Allen, Craig R; Angeler, David G; Baer, Sara G; Wall, Diana H

2016-12-01

Ecosystem services provided by soil include regulation of the atmosphere and climate, primary (including agricultural) production, waste processing, decomposition, nutrient conservation, water purification, erosion control, medical resources, pest control, and disease mitigation. The simultaneous production of these multiple services arises from complex interactions among diverse aboveground and belowground communities across multiple scales. When a system is mismanaged, non-linear and persistent losses in ecosystem services can arise. Adaptive management is an approach to management designed to reduce uncertainty as management proceeds. By developing alternative hypotheses, testing these hypotheses and adjusting management in response to outcomes, managers can probe dynamic mechanistic relationships among aboveground and belowground soil system components. In doing so, soil ecosystem services can be preserved and critical ecological thresholds avoided. Here, we present an adaptive management framework designed to reduce uncertainty surrounding the soil system, even when soil ecosystem services production is not the explicit management objective, so that managers can reach their management goals without undermining soil multifunctionality or contributing to an irreversible loss of soil ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Adaptive management for ecosystem services.

PubMed

Birgé, Hannah E; Allen, Craig R; Garmestani, Ahjond S; Pope, Kevin L

2016-12-01

Management of natural resources for the production of ecosystem services, which are vital for human well-being, is necessary even when there is uncertainty regarding system response to management action. This uncertainty is the result of incomplete controllability, complex internal feedbacks, and non-linearity that often interferes with desired management outcomes, and insufficient understanding of nature and people. Adaptive management was developed to reduce such uncertainty. We present a framework for the application of adaptive management for ecosystem services that explicitly accounts for cross-scale tradeoffs in the production of ecosystem services. Our framework focuses on identifying key spatiotemporal scales (plot, patch, ecosystem, landscape, and region) that encompass dominant structures and processes in the system, and includes within- and cross-scale dynamics, ecosystem service tradeoffs, and management controllability within and across scales. Resilience theory recognizes that a limited set of ecological processes in a given system regulate ecosystem services, yet our understanding of these processes is poorly understood. If management actions erode or remove these processes, the system may shift into an alternative state unlikely to support the production of desired services. Adaptive management provides a process to assess the underlying within and cross-scale tradeoffs associated with production of ecosystem services while proceeding with management designed to meet the demands of a growing human population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated and adaptive management of water resources: Tensions, legacies, and the next best thing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Engle, Nathan L.; Johns, Owen R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen

2011-02-01

Integrated water resources management (IWRM) and adaptive management (AM) are two institutional and management paradigms designed to address shortcomings within water systems governance – the limits of hierarchical water institutional arrangements in the case of IWRM and the challenge of making water management decisions under uncertainty in the case of AM. Recently, there has been a trend to merge these paradigms to address the growing complexity of stressors shaping water management, such as globalization and climate change. However, because many of these joint approaches have received little empirical attention, questions remain about how they might work (or not) in practice.more » Here, we explore a few of these issues using empirical research carried out in Brazil. We focus on highlighting the potentially negative interactions, tensions, and tradeoffs between different institutions/mechanisms perceived as desirable as research and practice attempt to make water systems management simultaneously integrated and adaptive. Our examples pertain mainly on the use of techno-scientific knowledge in water management and governance in Brazil’s IWRM model and how it relates to participation, democracy, deliberation, diversity, and adaptability. We show that a legacy of technical and hierarchical management has shaped the integration of management, and subsequently, the degree to which management might also be adaptive. While integrated systems may be more legitimate and accountable than top-down command and control ones, the mechanisms of IWRM may be at odds with the flexible, experimental, and self-organizing nature of AM.« less

Emergence, institutionalization and renewal: Rhythms of adaptive governance in complex social-ecological systems.

PubMed

Chaffin, Brian C; Gunderson, Lance H

2016-01-01

Adaptive governance provides the capacity for environmental managers and decision makers to confront variable degrees of uncertainty inherent to complex social-ecological systems. Current theoretical conceptualizations of adaptive governance represent a series of structures and processes best suited for either adapting or transforming existing environmental governance regimes towards forms flexible enough to confront rapid ecological change. As the number of empirical examples of adaptive governance described in the literature grows, the conceptual basis of adaptive governance remains largely under theorized. We argue that reconnecting adaptive governance with foundational concepts of ecological resilience-specifically Panarchy and the adaptive cycle of complex systems-highlights the importance of episodic disturbances and cross-scale interactions in triggering reorganizations in governance. By envisioning the processes of adaptive governance through the lens of Panarchy, scholars and practitioners alike will be better able to identify the emergence of adaptive governance, as well as take advantage of opportunities to institutionalize this type of governance in pursuit of sustainability outcomes. The synergistic analysis of adaptive governance and Panarchy can provide critical insight for analyzing the role of social dynamics during oscillating periods of stability and instability in social-ecological systems. A deeper understanding of the potential for cross-scale interactions to shape adaptive governance regimes may be useful as society faces the challenge of mitigating the impacts of global environmental change. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A tale of two rain gardens: Barriers and bridges to adaptive ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Green infrastructure installations such as rain gardens and bioswales are increasingly regarded as viable tools to mitigate stormwater runoff at the parcel level. The use of adaptive management to implement and monitor green infrastructure projects as experimental attempts to manage stormwater has not been adequately explored as a way to optimize green infrastructure performance or increase social and political acceptance. Efforts to improve stormwater management through green infrastructure suffer from the complexity of overlapping jurisdictional boundaries, as well as interacting social and political forces that dictate the flow, consumption, conservation and disposal of urban wastewater flows. Within this urban milieu, adaptive management—rigorous experimentation applied as policy—can inform new wastewater management techniques such as the implementation of green infrastructure projects. In this article, we present a narrative of scientists and practitioners working together to apply an adaptive management approach to green infrastructure implementation for stormwater management in Cleveland, Ohio. In Cleveland, contextual legal requirements and environmental factors created an opportunity for government researchers, stormwater managers and community organizers to engage in the development of two distinct sets of rain gardens, each borne of unique social, economic and environmental processes. In this article we analyze social and political barriers to app

LCMS landscape change monitoring system—results from an information needs assessment

Treesearch

Kevin Megown; Brian Schwind; Don Evans; Mark Finco

2015-01-01

Understanding changes in land use and land cover over space and time provides an important means to evaluate complex interactions between human and biophysical systems, to project future conditions, and to design mitigation and adaptive management strategies. Assessing and monitoring landscape change is evolving into a foundational element of climate change adaptation...

Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in the North Cascades region, Washington

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; David L. Peterson; Regina M. Rochefort

2014-01-01

The North Cascadia Adaptation Partnership (NCAP) is a science-management partnership consisting of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service Mount Baker-Snoqualmie and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests and Pacific Northwest Research Station; North Cascades National Park Complex; Mount Rainier National Park; and University of Washington Climate Impacts Group....

50 CFR 218.118 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Northwest Training Range Complex (NWTRC) § 218.118 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011. (3) Compiled results of Navy funded research and development... coincident MFAS/HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.118 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Northwest Training Range Complex (NWTRC) § 218.118 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011. (3) Compiled results of Navy funded research and development... coincident MFAS/HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.108 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Mariana Islands Training Range Complex (MIRC) § 218.108 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... previous year (either from the MIRC Study Area or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop.../HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.108 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Mariana Islands Training Range Complex (MIRC) § 218.108 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... previous year (either from the MIRC Study Area or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop.../HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.108 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Mariana Islands Training Range Complex (MIRC) § 218.108 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... previous year (either from the MIRC Study Area or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop.../HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.108 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... Mariana Islands Training Range Complex (MIRC) § 218.108 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... previous year (either from the MIRC Study Area or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop.../HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.118 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... Northwest Training Range Complex (NWTRC) § 218.118 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011. (3) Compiled results of Navy funded research and development... coincident MFAS/HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.108 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Mariana Islands Training Range Complex (MIRC) § 218.108 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... previous year (either from the MIRC Study Area or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop.../HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

50 CFR 218.118 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... Northwest Training Range Complex (NWTRC) § 218.118 Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive... Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011. (3) Compiled results of Navy funded research and development... coincident MFAS/HFAS or explosives training or not involving coincident use). (5) Results from the Long Term...

A resilience perspective to water risk management: case-study application of the adaptation tipping point method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gersonius, Berry; Ashley, Richard; Jeuken, Ad; Nasruddin, Fauzy; Pathirana, Assela; Zevenbergen, Chris

2010-05-01

In a context of high uncertainty about hydrological variables due to climate change and other factors, the development of updated risk management approaches is as important as—if not more important than—the provision of improved data and forecasts of the future. Traditional approaches to adaptation attempt to manage future water risks to cities with the use of the predict-then-adapt method. This method uses hydrological change projections as the starting point to identify adaptive strategies, which is followed by analysing the cause-effect chain based on some sort of Pressures-State-Impact-Response (PSIR) scheme. The predict-then-adapt method presumes that it is possible to define a singular (optimal) adaptive strategy according to a most likely or average projection of future change. A key shortcoming of the method is, however, that the planning of water management structures is typically decoupled from forecast uncertainties and is, as such, inherently inflexible. This means that there is an increased risk of under- or over-adaptation, resulting in either mal-functioning or unnecessary costs. Rather than taking a traditional approach, responsible water risk management requires an alternative approach to adaptation that recognises and cultivates resiliency for change. The concept of resiliency relates to the capability of complex socio-technical systems to make aspirational levels of functioning attainable despite the occurrence of possible changes. Focusing on resiliency does not attempt to reduce uncertainty associated with future change, but rather to develop better ways of managing it. This makes it a particularly relevant perspective for adaptation to long-term hydrological change. Although resiliency is becoming more refined as a theory, the application of the concept to water risk management is still in an initial phase. Different methods are used in practice to support the implementation of a resilience-focused approach. Typically these approaches start the identification and analysis of adaptive strategies at the end of PSIR scheme: impact and examine whether, and for how long, current risk management strategies will continue to be effective under different future conditions. The most noteworthy application of this approach is the adaptation tipping point method. Adaptation tipping points (ATP) are defined as the points where the magnitude of change is such that the current risk management strategy can no longer meet its objectives. In the ATP method, policy objectives, determining aspirational functioning, are taken as the starting point. Also, the current measures to achieve these objectives are described. This is followed by a sensitivity analysis to determine the optimal and critical boundary conditions (state). Lastly, the state is related to pressures in terms of future change. It should be noted that in the ATP method the driver for adopting a new risk management strategy is not future change as such, but rather failing to meet the policy objectives. In the current paper, the ATP method is applied to the case study of an existing stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). This application shows the potential of the ATP method to reduce the complexity of implementing a resilience-focused approach to water risk management. It is expected that this will help foster greater practical relevance of resilience as a perspective for the planning of water management structures.

Use of Coaching and Behavior Support Planning for Students with Disruptive Behavior within a Universal Classroom Management Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinke, Wendy M.; Stormont, Melissa; Herman, Keith C.; Wang, Ze; Newcomer, Lori; King, Kathleen

2014-01-01

Even with the use of effective universal classroom management practices, some students will need additional behavioral supports. However, to translate implementation of new strategies into the classroom, professional development programs need to be adaptive to the complexities teachers face in providing instruction and managing classroom behaviors…

Schools as social complex adaptive systems: a new way to understand the challenges of introducing the health promoting schools concept.

PubMed

Keshavarz, Nastaran; Nutbeam, Don; Rowling, Louise; Khavarpour, Freidoon

2010-05-01

Achieving system-wide implementation of health promotion programs in schools and sustaining both the program and its health related benefits have proved challenging. This paper reports on a qualitative study examining the implementation of health promoting schools programs in primary schools in Sydney, Australia. It draw upon insights from systems science to examine the relevance and usefulness of the concept of "complex adaptive systems" as a framework to better understand ways in which health promoting school interventions could be introduced and sustained. The primary data for the study were collected by semi-structured interviews with 26 school principals and teachers. Additional information was extracted from publicly available school management plans and annual reports. We examined the data from these sources to determine whether schools exhibit characteristics of complex adaptive systems. The results confirmed that schools do exhibit most, but not all of the characteristics of social complex adaptive systems, and exhibit significant differences with artificial and natural systems. Understanding schools as social complex adaptive systems may help to explain some of the challenges of introducing and sustaining change in schools. These insights may, in turn, lead us to adopt more sophisticated approaches to the diffusion of new programs in school systems that account for the diverse, complex and context specific nature of individual school systems. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lonsdale, Whitney R.; Kretser, Heidi E.; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B.; Cross, Molly S.

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Similarities and Differences in Barriers and Opportunities Affecting Climate Change Adaptation Action in Four North American Landscapes.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Whitney R; Kretser, Heidi E; Chetkiewicz, Cheryl-Lesley B; Cross, Molly S

2017-12-01

Climate change presents a complex set of challenges for natural resource managers across North America. Despite recognition that climate change poses serious threats to species, ecosystems, and human communities, implementation of adaptation measures is not yet happening on a broad scale. Among different regions, a range of climate change trajectories, varying political contexts, and diverse social and ecological systems generate a myriad of factors that can affect progress on climate change adaptation implementation. In order to understand the general versus site-specific nature of barriers and opportunities influencing implementation, we surveyed and interviewed practitioners, decision-makers, and scientists involved in natural resource management in four different North American regions, northern Ontario (Canada), the Adirondack State Park (US), Arctic Alaska (US), and the Transboundary Rocky Mountains (US and Canada). Common barriers among regions related to a lack of political support and financial resources, as well as challenges related to translating complex and interacting effects of climate change into management actions. Opportunities shared among regions related to collaboration, funding, and the presence of strong leadership. These commonalities indicate the importance of cross-site learning about ways to leverage opportunities and address adaptation barriers; however, regional variations also suggest that adaptation efforts will need to be tailored to fit specific ecological, political, social and economic contexts. Comparative findings on the similarities and differences in barriers and opportunities, as well as rankings of barriers and opportunities by region, offers important contextual insights into how to further refine efforts to advance adaptation actions in those regions.

Q-BIC3 - A Québec-Bavarian international collaboration for adapting regional watershed management to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2010-05-01

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is certainly one of the major challenges in water resources management over the next decades. Adaptation to climate change risks is most crucial in this domain, since projected increase in mean air temperature in combination with an expected increase in the temporal variability of precipitation patterns will contribute to pressure on current water availability, allocation and management practices. The latter often involve the utilization of valuable infrastructure, such as dams, reservoirs and water intakes, for which adaptation options must by developed over long-term and often dynamic planning horizons. Research to establish novel methodologies for improved adaptation to climate change is thus very important and only beginning to emerge in regional watershed management. The presented project Q-BIC³, funded by the Bavarian Minstry for the Environment and the Québec Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation, aims to develop and apply a newly designed spectrum of tools to support the improved assessment of adaptation options to climate change in regional watershed management. It addresses in particular selected study sites in Québec and Bavaria. The following key issues have been prioritized within Q-BIC³: i) The definition of potential adaptation options in the context of climate change for pre-targeted water management key issues using a subsequent and logical chain of modelling tools (climate, hydrological and water management modeling tools) ii) The definition of an approach that accounts for hydrological projection uncertainties in the search for potential adaptation options in the context of climate change iii) The investigation of the required complexity in hydrological models to estimate climate change impacts and to develop specific adaptation options for Québec and Bavaria watersheds. iv) The development and prototyping of a regionally transferable and modular modelling system for integrated watershed management under climate change conditions. The study sites under investigation, namely the Haut-Saint Francois and Gatineau watersheds in Québec and the Isar and Regnitz catchments in Bavaria, are under heavy anthropogenic use. Intense dam and reservoir operations and even water transfer systems are in place to satisfy multi-purpose demands on available water resources. These are imposing extreme modifications to the natural flow regimes. In the first phase of the project, climatic forcing, stemming from an ensemble of selected GCM and RCM runs, is applied to a variety of hydrological models with different complexity. The derived projections of future hydrological conditions serve to investigate, whether current operation rules and/or existing infrastructure needs to be adapted to a changing environment. First findings demonstrate the large uncertainties associated to the model chain outputs, but also indicate that related adaptation is indispensable to meet the challenges of the rapidly changing man-environment systems.

Resilient organizations: matrix model and service line management.

PubMed

Westphal, Judith A

2005-09-01

Resilient organizations modify structures to meet the demands of the marketplace. The author describes a structure that enables multihospital organizations to innovate and rapidly adapt to changes. Service line management within a matrix model is an evolving organizational structure for complex systems in which nurses are pivotal members.

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Mind the gap! Lessons from science-based stakeholder dialogue in climate-adapted management of wetlands.

PubMed

Grygoruk, Mateusz; Rannow, Sven

2017-01-15

Effective stakeholder involvement is crucial for the management of protected areas, especially when new challenges like adaptation to climate change need to be addressed. Under these circumstances, science-based stakeholder involvement is required. However, there is often a gap between the information produced by science and the need for information from stakeholders. Along with the design and implementation of adaptive management strategies and policies, efforts must be taken to adjust messages about conservation and adaptation issues, to make them easier to understand, relevant and acceptable for stakeholders. In this paper, the experience of closing the gap between scientific information and the user needs of stakeholders in the Biebrza Valley is documented. The requirements of efficient stakeholder dialogue and the raising of awareness are then indicated. We conclude that many attempts to raise awareness of environmental conservation require improvements. Messages often need to be adjusted for different stakeholders and their various perception levels to efficiently anticipate the potential impacts of the changing climate on ecosystem management. We also revealed that the autonomous adaptation measures implemented by stakeholders to mitigate impacts of climatic change often contradict adaptive management planned and implemented by environmental authorities. We conclude that there is a demand for boundary spanners that can build a bridge between complex scientific outputs and stakeholder needs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Balancing Management and Leadership in Complex Health Systems Comment on "Management Matters: A Leverage Point for Health Systems Strengthening in Global Health".

PubMed

Kwamie, Aku

2015-08-14

Health systems, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), need stronger management and leadership capacities. Management and leadership are not synonymous, yet should be considered together as there can be too much of one and not enough of the other. In complex adaptive health systems, the multiple interactions and relationships between people and elements of the system mean that management and leadership, so often treated as domains of the individual, are additionally systemic phenomena, emerging from these relational interactions. This brief commentary notes some significant implications for how we can support capacity strengthening interventions for complex management and leadership. These would necessarily move away from competency-based models focused on training for individuals, and would rather encompass longer-term initiatives explicitly focused on systemic goals of accountability, innovation, and learning. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Implementing managerial innovations in primary care: can we rank change drivers in complex adaptive organizations?

PubMed

Longo, Francesco

2007-01-01

There has been much innovation in primary care in the past few decades. Although external and systemic constraints for health care organizations are relevant for their managerial evolution, there is also evidence that organizations operating under the same external pressures reach different levels of maturity. Which of the internal drivers available explain and foster change? Is it possible to rank change drivers by looking at their rate of efficacy in order to define a general change management path in the relationship between managers and physicians? The study is a hypothesis-generating work, designed to discuss a framework, consistent with the complex adaptive systems literature, for more effective internal change management approaches. We employed a qualitative approach to conduct a multiple case study in order to directly observe the evidence and to ask "key change players" for their perceptions. We studied different organizations all subject to the same external constraints in order to focus on the effects of internal change drivers. According to key players' opinions, the main drivers for managerial development are characteristics of the actors involved: their motivation, leadership, and commitment; the quality of relationships among the main actors; and how the resources dedicated to manage change are used. Given these criteria, any organizational strategy and goal seems to be achievable. This is consistent with the suggestions coming from the complex adaptive system literature. MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS: Managers have to consider the management of the relationship with professionals as the key success factor for implementing change. Managerial leadership has to be diffused in the organization both in the vertical and horizontal dimensions. Innovations need a medium or long-term perspective to become widely applied, and this requires a strong commitment which is related to managerial stability. Resources for innovation are to be considered a critical driver for fostering the relationship between managers and professionals.

Climate-Smart Design for Ecosystem Management: A Test Application for Coral Reefs.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Julius, Susan H; Hoffman, Jennie; Koltes, Karen H; MacGowan, Petra

2017-01-01

The interactive and cumulative impacts of climate change on natural resources such as coral reefs present numerous challenges for conservation planning and management. Climate change adaptation is complex due to climate-stressor interactions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. This leaves decision makers worldwide faced with local, regional, and global-scale threats to ecosystem processes and services, occurring over time frames that require both near-term and long-term planning. Thus there is a need for structured approaches to adaptation planning that integrate existing methods for vulnerability assessment with design and evaluation of effective adaptation responses. The Corals and Climate Adaptation Planning project of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force seeks to develop guidance for improving coral reef management through tailored application of a climate-smart approach. This approach is based on principles from a recently-published guide which provides a framework for adopting forward-looking goals, based on assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and applying a structured process to design effective adaptation strategies. Work presented in this paper includes: (1) examination of the climate-smart management cycle as it relates to coral reefs; (2) a compilation of adaptation strategies for coral reefs drawn from a comprehensive review of the literature; (3) in-depth demonstration of climate-smart design for place-based crafting of robust adaptation actions; and (4) feedback from stakeholders on the perceived usefulness of the approach. We conclude with a discussion of lessons-learned on integrating climate-smart design into real-world management planning processes and a call from stakeholders for an "adaptation design tool" that is now under development.

Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gleick, P. H.

2014-12-01

Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

A socio-ecological adaptive approach to contaminated mega-site management: from 'control and correct' to 'coping with change'.

PubMed

Schirmer, Mario; Lyon, Ken; Armstrong, James E; Farrell, Katharine N

2012-01-01

Mega-sites have a notable impact on surrounding ecological systems. At such sites there are substantial risks associated with complex socio-ecological interactions that are hard to characterize, let alone model and predict. While the urge to control and clean-up mega-sites (control and correct) is understandable, rather than setting a goal of cleaning up such sites, we suggest a more realistic response strategy is to address these massive and persistent sources of contamination by acknowledging their position as new features of the socio-ecological landscapes within which they are located. As it seems nearly impossible to clean up such sites, we argue for consideration of a 'coping with change' rather than a 'control and correct' approach. This strategy recognizes that the current management option for a mega-site, in light of its physical complexities and due to changing societal preferences, geochemical transformations, hydrogeology knowledge and remedial technology options may not remain optimal in future, and therefore needs to be continuously adapted, as community, ecology, technology and understanding change over time. This approach creates an opportunity to consider the relationship between a mega-site and its human and ecological environments in a different and more dynamic way. Our proposed approach relies on iterative adaptive management to incorporate mega-site management into the overall socio-ecological systems of the site's context. This approach effectively embeds mega-site management planning in a triple bottom line and environmental sustainability structure, rather than simply using single measures of success, such as contaminant-based guidelines. Recognizing that there is probably no best solution for managing a mega-site, we present a starting point for engaging constructively with this seemingly intractable issue. Therefore, we aim to initiate discussion about a new approach to mega-site management, in which the complexity of the problems posed by mega-sites is reflected upon in its entirety. These complexities are associated with uncertainties and unknowns that have to be addressed, as they have an impact on the strategies being developed and applied. We contend that the best that can be hoped for in mega-site management is an acceptable solution for the current state of affairs, with good flexibility to modify strategies as new site conditions, remediation possibilities, community preferences and management objectives develop over time. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive and Adaptable Automation Design: A Critical Review of the Literature and Recommendations for Future Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Kaber, David B.

2006-01-01

This report presents a review of literature on approaches to adaptive and adaptable task/function allocation and adaptive interface technologies for effective human management of complex systems that are likely to be issues for the Next Generation Air Transportation System, and a focus of research under the Aviation Safety Program, Integrated Intelligent Flight Deck Project. Contemporary literature retrieved from an online database search is summarized and integrated. The major topics include the effects of delegation-type, adaptable automation on human performance, workload and situation awareness, the effectiveness of various automation invocation philosophies and strategies to function allocation in adaptive systems, and the role of user modeling in adaptive interface design and the performance implications of adaptive interface technology.

Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, N.

2006-12-01

The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals of sustainable development on a regional scale.

Towards sustainable groundwater use: Setting long-term goals, backcasting, and managing adaptively

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gleeson, T.; Alley, W.M.; Allen, D.M.; Sophocleous, M.A.; Zhou, Y.; Taniguchi, M.; Vandersteen, J.

2012-01-01

The sustainability of crucial earth resources, such as groundwater, is a critical issue. We consider groundwater sustainability a value-driven process of intra- and intergenerational equity that balances the environment, society, and economy. Synthesizing hydrogeological science and current sustainability concepts, we emphasize three sustainability approaches: setting multigenerational sustainability goals, backcasting, and managing adaptively. As most aquifer problems are long-term problems, we propose that multigenerational goals (50 to 100 years) for water quantity and quality that acknowledge the connections between groundwater, surface water, and ecosystems be set for many aquifers. The goals should be set by a watershed- or aquifer-based community in an inclusive and participatory manner. Policies for shorter time horizons should be developed by backcasting, and measures implemented through adaptive management to achieve the long-term goals. Two case histories illustrate the importance and complexity of a multigenerational perspective and adaptive management. These approaches could transform aquifer depletion and contamination to more sustainable groundwater use, providing groundwater for current and future generations while protecting ecological integrity and resilience. ?? 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water ?? 2011, National Ground Water Association.

Child health in complex emergencies.

PubMed Central

Moss, William J.; Ramakrishnan, Meenakshi; Storms, Dory; Henderson Siegle, Anne; Weiss, William M.; Lejnev, Ivan; Muhe, Lulu

2006-01-01

Coordinated and effective interventions are critical for relief efforts to be successful in addressing the health needs of children in situations of armed conflict, population displacement, and/or food insecurity. We reviewed published literature and surveyed international relief organizations engaged in child health activities in complex emergencies. Our aim was to identify research needs and improve guidelines for the care of children. Much of the literature details the burden of disease and the causes of morbidity and mortality; few interventional studies have been published. Surveys of international relief organizations showed that most use World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), and ministry of health guidelines designed for use in stable situations. Organizations were least likely to have formal guidelines on the management of asphyxia, prematurity, and infection in neonates; diagnosis and management of children with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection; active case-finding and treatment of tuberculosis; paediatric trauma; and the diagnosis and management of mental-health problems in children. Guidelines often are not adapted to the different types of health-care workers who provide care in complex emergencies. Evidence-based, locally adapted guidelines for the care of children in complex emergencies should be adopted by ministries of health, supported by WHO and UNICEF, and disseminated to international relief organizations to ensure appropriate, effective, and uniform care. PMID:16501716

50 CFR 218.8 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... TAKING AND IMPORTING OF MARINE MAMMALS Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to U.S. Navy Training in the... Complex or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011... VACAPE Range Complex Study Area or other locations, and involving coincident explosives training or not...

50 CFR 218.8 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... TAKING AND IMPORTING OF MARINE MAMMALS Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to U.S. Navy Training in the... Complex or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011... VACAPE Range Complex Study Area or other locations, and involving coincident explosives training or not...

50 CFR 218.8 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... TAKING AND IMPORTING OF MARINE MAMMALS Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to U.S. Navy Training in the... Complex or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011... VACAPE Range Complex Study Area or other locations, and involving coincident explosives training or not...

50 CFR 218.8 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... TAKING AND IMPORTING OF MARINE MAMMALS Taking Marine Mammals Incidental to U.S. Navy Training in the... Complex or other locations). (2) Findings of the Monitoring Workshop that the Navy will convene in 2011... VACAPE Range Complex Study Area or other locations, and involving coincident explosives training or not...

Parasites, ecosystems and sustainability: an ecological and complex systems perspective.

PubMed

Horwitz, Pierre; Wilcox, Bruce A

2005-06-01

Host-parasite relationships can be conceptualised either narrowly, where the parasite is metabolically dependent on the host, or more broadly, as suggested by an ecological-evolutionary and complex systems perspective. In this view Host-parasite relationships are part of a larger set of ecological and co-evolutionary interdependencies and a complex adaptive system. These interdependencies affect not just the hosts, vectors, parasites, the immediate agents, but also those indirectly or consequentially affected by the relationship. Host-parasite relationships also can be viewed as systems embedded within larger systems represented by ecological communities and ecosystems. So defined, it can be argued that Host-parasite relationships may often benefit their hosts and contribute significantly to the structuring of ecological communities. The broader, complex adaptive system view also contributes to understanding the phenomenon of disease emergence, the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms involved, and the role of parasitology in research and management of ecosystems in light of the apparently growing problem of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife and humans. An expanded set of principles for integrated parasite management is suggested by this perspective.

Innovations in clinical trials informatics.

PubMed

Summers, Ron; Vyas, Hiten; Dudhal, Nilesh; Doherty, Neil F; Coombs, Crispin R; Hepworth, Mark

2008-01-01

This paper will investigate innovations in information management for use in clinical trials. The application typifies a complex, adaptive, distributed and information-rich environment for which continuous innovation is necessary. Organisational innovation is highlighted as well as the technical innovations in workflow processes and their representation as an integrated set of web services. Benefits realization uncovers further innovations in the business strand of the work undertaken. Following the description of the development of this information management system, the semantic web is postulated as a possible solution to tame the complexity related to information management issues found within clinical trials support systems.

Complex adaptive systems (CAS): an overview of key elements, characteristics and application to management theory.

PubMed

Ellis, Beverley; Herbert, Stuart Ian

2011-01-01

To identify key elements and characteristics of complex adaptive systems (CAS) relevant to implementing clinical governance, drawing on lessons from quality improvement programmes and the use of informatics in primary care. The research strategy includes a literature review to develop theoretical models of clinical governance of quality improvement in primary care organisations (PCOs) and a survey of PCOs. Complex adaptive system theories are a valuable tool to help make sense of natural phenomena, which include human responses to problem solving within the sampled PCOs. The research commenced with a survey; 76% (n16) of respondents preferred to support the implementation of clinical governance initiatives guided by outputs from general practice electronic health records. There was considerable variation in the way in which consultation data was captured, recorded and organised. Incentivised information sharing led to consensus on coding policies and models of data recording ahead of national contractual requirements. Informatics was acknowledged as a mechanism to link electronic health record outputs, quality improvement and resources. Investment in informatics was identified as a development priority in order to embed clinical governance principles in practice. Complex adaptive system theory usefully describes evolutionary change processes, providing insight into how the origins of quality assurance were predicated on rational reductionism and linearity. New forms of governance do not neutralise previous models, but add further dimensions to them. Clinical governance models have moved from deterministic and 'objective' factors to incorporate cultural aspects with feedback about quality enabled by informatics. The socio-technical lessons highlighted should inform healthcare management.

Supporting ontology adaptation and versioning based on a graph of relevance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sassi, Najla; Jaziri, Wassim; Alharbi, Saad

2016-11-01

Ontologies recently have become a topic of interest in computer science since they are seen as a semantic support to explicit and enrich data-models as well as to ensure interoperability of data. Moreover, supporting ontology adaptation becomes essential and extremely important, mainly when using ontologies in changing environments. An important issue when dealing with ontology adaptation is the management of several versions. Ontology versioning is a complex and multifaceted problem as it should take into account change management, versions storage and access, consistency issues, etc. The purpose of this paper is to propose an approach and tool for ontology adaptation and versioning. A series of techniques are proposed to 'safely' evolve a given ontology and produce a new consistent version. The ontology versions are ordered in a graph according to their relevance. The relevance is computed based on four criteria: conceptualisation, usage frequency, abstraction and completeness. The techniques to carry out the versioning process are implemented in the Consistology tool, which has been developed to assist users in expressing adaptation requirements and managing ontology versions.

A case study of quality improvement methods for complex adaptive systems applied to an academic hepatology program.

PubMed

Fontanesi, John; Martinez, Anthony; Boyo, Toritsesan O; Gish, Robert

2015-01-01

Although demands for greater access to hepatology services that are less costly and achieve better outcomes have led to numerous quality improvement initiatives, traditional quality management methods may be inappropriate for hepatology. We empirically tested a model for conducting quality improvement in an academic hepatology program using methods developed to analyze and improve complex adaptive systems. We achieved a 25% increase in volume using 15% more clinical sessions with no change in staff or faculty FTEs, generating a positive margin of 50%. Wait times for next available appointments were reduced from five months to two weeks; unscheduled appointment slots dropped from 7% to less than 1%; "no-show" rates dropped to less than 10%; Press-Ganey scores increased to the 100th percentile. We conclude that framing hepatology as a complex adaptive system may improve our understanding of the complex, interdependent actions required to improve quality of care, patient satisfaction, and cost-effectiveness.

Adapted Physical Activity Programme and Self-Perception in Obese Adolescents with Intellectual Disability: Between Morphological Awareness and Positive Illusory Bias

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salaun, Laureline; Reynes, Eric; Berthouze-Aranda, Sophie E.

2014-01-01

Background: In adolescents with intellectual disability, the management of obesity is a crucial issue, yet also quite complex because of their particular perception of themselves. This study investigated the relationship between self-perception variables and morphological variables and their changes after a 9-month Adapted Physical Activity (APA)…

Increasing Testing Efficiency through the Development of an IT-Based Adaptive Testing Tool for Competency Measurement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kleinhans, Janne; Schumann, Matthias

2015-01-01

Purpose: This paper investigates the potential of computerized adaptive testing for CMs to reduce test time. In the context of education and training, competency measurement (CM) is a central challenge in competency management. For complex CMs, a compromise must be addressed between the time available and the quality of the measurements.…

Responding to bushfire risk: the need for transformative adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Saffron J.; Handmer, John

2012-03-01

The 2009 ‘Black Saturday’ bushfires led to 172 civilian deaths, and were proclaimed as one of Australia’s worst natural disasters. The Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission was set up in the wake of the fires to investigate the circumstances surrounding the death of each fatality. Here, results from an analysis undertaken for the Commission to examine the household preparedness policy ‘Prepare, Stay and Defend, or Leave Early’ (‘Stay or Go’), plus an examination of the Commission’s recommendations, are explored in the broader context of adaptation to bushfire. We find Victoria ill adapted to complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday due to changing settlement patterns and the known vulnerabilities of populations living in fire prone areas, and increasingly in the future due to the influence of climate change extending fire seasons and their severity. We suggest that uncertainty needs to be better acknowledged and managed in fire risk situations, and that the responsibility for fire preparedness should be more justly distributed. We suggest that a transformation in adaptation is required to effectively manage complex bushfire risk events like Black Saturday, and provide four key ways in which transformation in bushfire preparedness could be achieved.

Designing a complex intervention for dementia case management in primary care

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Community-based support will become increasingly important for people with dementia, but currently services are fragmented and the quality of care is variable. Case management is a popular approach to care co-ordination, but evidence to date on its effectiveness in dementia has been equivocal. Case management interventions need to be designed to overcome obstacles to care co-ordination and maximise benefit. A successful case management methodology was adapted from the United States (US) version for use in English primary care, with a view to a definitive trial. Medical Research Council guidance on the development of complex interventions was implemented in the adaptation process, to capture the skill sets, person characteristics and learning needs of primary care based case managers. Methods Co-design of the case manager role in a single NHS provider organisation, with external peer review by professionals and carers, in an iterative technology development process. Results The generic skills and personal attributes were described for practice nurses taking up the case manager role in their workplaces, and for social workers seconded to general practice teams, together with a method of assessing their learning needs. A manual of information material for people with dementia and their family carers was also created using the US intervention as its source. Conclusions Co-design produces rich products that have face validity and map onto the complexities of dementia and of health and care services. The feasibility of the case manager role, as described and defined by this process, needs evaluation in ‘real life’ settings. PMID:23865537

Surprise and opportunity for learning in Grand Canyon: the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melis, Theodore S.; Walters, Carl; Korman, Josh

2015-01-01

With a focus on resources of the Colorado River ecosystem below Glen Canyon Dam, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program has included a variety of experimental policy tests, ranging from manipulation of water releases from the dam to removal of non-native fish within Grand Canyon National Park. None of these field-scale experiments has yet produced unambiguous results in terms of management prescriptions. But there has been adaptive learning, mostly from unanticipated or surprising resource responses relative to predictions from ecosystem modeling. Surprise learning opportunities may often be viewed with dismay by some stakeholders who might not be clear about the purpose of science and modeling in adaptive management. However, the experimental results from the Glen Canyon Dam program actually represent scientific successes in terms of revealing new opportunities for developing better river management policies. A new long-term experimental management planning process for Glen Canyon Dam operations, started in 2011 by the U.S. Department of the Interior, provides an opportunity to refocus management objectives, identify and evaluate key uncertainties about the influence of dam releases, and refine monitoring for learning over the next several decades. Adaptive learning since 1995 is critical input to this long-term planning effort. Embracing uncertainty and surprise outcomes revealed by monitoring and ecosystem modeling will likely continue the advancement of resource objectives below the dam, and may also promote efficient learning in other complex programs.

Twelve tips for using applied improvisation in medical education.

PubMed

Hoffmann-Longtin, Krista; Rossing, Jonathan P; Weinstein, Elizabeth

2018-04-01

Future physicians will practice medicine in a more complex environment than ever, where skills of interpersonal communication, collaboration and adaptability to change are critical. Applied improvisation (or AI) is an instructional strategy which adapts the concepts of improvisational theater to teach these types of complex skills in other contexts. Unique to AI is its very active teaching approach, adapting theater games to help learners meet curricular objectives. In medical education, AI is particularly helpful when attempting to build students' comfort with and skills in complex, interpersonal behaviors such as effective listening, person-centeredness, teamwork and communication. This article draws on current evidence and the authors' experiences to present best practices for incorporating AI into teaching medicine. These practical tips help faculty new to AI get started by establishing goals, choosing appropriate games, understanding effective debriefing, considering evaluation strategies and managing resistance within the context of medical education.

When ranchers don't know what to do: Care and rangeland management decision-making under uncertainity

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This presentation asks: how do ranchers know what to do when they are faced with a decision under high levels of complexity and uncertainty? In the semi-arid Western Great Plains of North America, rancher decisions have implications for rangeland ecosystems and for livelihoods. Adaptive management r...

Design and Evaluation of Simulations for the Development of Complex Decision-Making Skills.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, Roger; Varley, Glen

2002-01-01

Command and Control Training Using Simulation (CACTUS) is a computer digital mapping system used by police to manage large-scale public events. Audio and video records of adaptive training scenarios using CACTUS show how the simulation develops decision-making skills for strategic and tactical event management. (SK)

A conceptual model for the development process of confirmatory adaptive clinical trials within an emergency research network.

PubMed

Mawocha, Samkeliso C; Fetters, Michael D; Legocki, Laurie J; Guetterman, Timothy C; Frederiksen, Shirley; Barsan, William G; Lewis, Roger J; Berry, Donald A; Meurer, William J

2017-06-01

Adaptive clinical trials use accumulating data from enrolled subjects to alter trial conduct in pre-specified ways based on quantitative decision rules. In this research, we sought to characterize the perspectives of key stakeholders during the development process of confirmatory-phase adaptive clinical trials within an emergency clinical trials network and to build a model to guide future development of adaptive clinical trials. We used an ethnographic, qualitative approach to evaluate key stakeholders' views about the adaptive clinical trial development process. Stakeholders participated in a series of multidisciplinary meetings during the development of five adaptive clinical trials and completed a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats questionnaire. In the analysis, we elucidated overarching themes across the stakeholders' responses to develop a conceptual model. Four major overarching themes emerged during the analysis of stakeholders' responses to questioning: the perceived statistical complexity of adaptive clinical trials and the roles of collaboration, communication, and time during the development process. Frequent and open communication and collaboration were viewed by stakeholders as critical during the development process, as were the careful management of time and logistical issues related to the complexity of planning adaptive clinical trials. The Adaptive Design Development Model illustrates how statistical complexity, time, communication, and collaboration are moderating factors in the adaptive design development process. The intensity and iterative nature of this process underscores the need for funding mechanisms for the development of novel trial proposals in academic settings.

CoreTSAR: Core Task-Size Adapting Runtime

DOE PAGES

Scogland, Thomas R. W.; Feng, Wu-chun; Rountree, Barry; ...

2014-10-27

Heterogeneity continues to increase at all levels of computing, with the rise of accelerators such as GPUs, FPGAs, and other co-processors into everything from desktops to supercomputers. As a consequence, efficiently managing such disparate resources has become increasingly complex. CoreTSAR seeks to reduce this complexity by adaptively worksharing parallel-loop regions across compute resources without requiring any transformation of the code within the loop. Lastly, our results show performance improvements of up to three-fold over a current state-of-the-art heterogeneous task scheduler as well as linear performance scaling from a single GPU to four GPUs for many codes. In addition, CoreTSAR demonstratesmore » a robust ability to adapt to both a variety of workloads and underlying system configurations.« less

An adaptive framework to differentiate receiving water quality impacts on a multi-scale level.

PubMed

Blumensaat, F; Tränckner, J; Helm, B; Kroll, S; Dirckx, G; Krebs, P

2013-01-01

The paradigm shift in recent years towards sustainable and coherent water resources management on a river basin scale has changed the subject of investigations to a multi-scale problem representing a great challenge for all actors participating in the management process. In this regard, planning engineers often face an inherent conflict to provide reliable decision support for complex questions with a minimum of effort. This trend inevitably increases the risk to base decisions upon uncertain and unverified conclusions. This paper proposes an adaptive framework for integral planning that combines several concepts (flow balancing, water quality monitoring, process modelling, multi-objective assessment) to systematically evaluate management strategies for water quality improvement. As key element, an S/P matrix is introduced to structure the differentiation of relevant 'pressures' in affected regions, i.e. 'spatial units', which helps in handling complexity. The framework is applied to a small, but typical, catchment in Flanders, Belgium. The application to the real-life case shows: (1) the proposed approach is adaptive, covers problems of different spatial and temporal scale, efficiently reduces complexity and finally leads to a transparent solution; and (2) water quality and emission-based performance evaluation must be done jointly as an emission-based performance improvement does not necessarily lead to an improved water quality status, and an assessment solely focusing on water quality criteria may mask non-compliance with emission-based standards. Recommendations derived from the theoretical analysis have been put into practice.

Expanding the prevention armamentarium portfolio: a framework for promoting HIV-Conversant Communities within a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape.

PubMed

Burman, Christopher J; Aphane, Marota; Mtapuri, Oliver; Delobelle, Peter

2015-01-01

The article describes a design journey that culminated in an HIV-Conversant Community Framework that is now being piloted in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The objective of the initiative is to reduce the aggregate community viral load by building capacity at multiple scales that strengthens peoples' HIV-related navigational skill sets-while simultaneously opening a 'chronic situation' schema. The framework design is based upon a transdisciplinary methodological combination that synthesises ideas and constructs from complexity science and the management sciences as a vehicle through which to re-conceptualise HIV prevention. This resulted in a prototype that included the following constructs: managing HIV-prevention in a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape; problematising and increasing the scope of the HIV knowledge armamentarium through education that focuses on the viral load and Langerhans cells; disruptive innovation and safe-fail probes followed by the facilitation of path creations and pattern management implementation techniques. These constructs are underpinned by a 'middle-ground' prevention approach which is designed to bridge the prevention 'fault line', enabling a multi-ontology conceptualisation of the challenge to be developed. The article concludes that stepping outside of the 'ordered' epistemological parameters of the existing prevention 'messaging' mind-set towards a more systemic approach that emphasises agency, structure and social practices as a contribution to 'ending AIDS by 2030' is worthy of further attention if communities are to engage more adaptively with the dynamic HIV landscape in South Africa.

Safe medication management in specialized home healthcare - an observational study.

PubMed

Lindblad, Marléne; Flink, Maria; Ekstedt, Mirjam

2017-08-24

Medication management is a complex, error-prone process. The aim of this study was to explore what constitutes the complexity of the medication management process (MMP) in specialized home healthcare and how healthcare professionals handle this complexity. The study is theoretically based in resilience engineering. Data were collected during the MMP at three specialized home healthcare units in Sweden using two strategies: observation of workplaces and shadowing RNs in everyday work, including interviews. Transcribed material was analysed using grounded theory. The MMP in home healthcare was dynamic and complex with unclear boundaries of responsibilities, inadequate information systems and fluctuating work conditions. Healthcare professionals adapted their everyday clinical work by sharing responsibility and simultaneously being authoritative and preserving patients' active participation, autonomy and integrity. To promote a safe MMP, healthcare professionals constantly re-prioritized goals, handled gaps in communication and information transmission at a distance by creating new bridging solutions. Trade-offs and workarounds were necessary elements, but also posed a threat to patient safety, as these interim solutions were not systematically evaluated or devised learning strategies. To manage a safe medication process in home healthcare, healthcare professionals need to adapt to fluctuating conditions and create bridging strategies through multiple parallel activities distributed over time, space and actors. The healthcare professionals' strategies could be integrated in continuous learning, while preserving boundaries of safety, instead of being more or less interim solutions. Patients' and family caregivers' as active partners in the MMP may be an underestimated resource for a resilient home healthcare.

Spawning Ideas--Moving from Ideas to Action: Quality Tools for Collective Problem-Solving and Continuous Learning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flor, Richard F.; Troskey, Matthew D.

This paper explores the dynamics of managing collective problem solving and decision making, and the application of tools and strategies to deal with the emergent complexity of systems in which educators work. Schools and educational programs are complex adaptive systems that respond to changes in internal and external environments. Functioning…

Advancing the application of systems thinking in health: managing rural China health system development in complex and dynamic contexts.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiulan; Bloom, Gerald; Xu, Xiaoxin; Chen, Lin; Liang, Xiaoyun; Wolcott, Sara J

2014-08-26

This paper explores the evolution of schemes for rural finance in China as a case study of the long and complex process of health system development. It argues that the evolution of these schemes has been the outcome of the response of a large number of agents to a rapidly changing context and of efforts by the government to influence this adaptation process and achieve public health goals. The study draws on several sources of data including a review of official policy documents and academic papers and in-depth interviews with key policy actors at national level and at a sample of localities. The study identifies three major transition points associated with changes in broad development strategy and demonstrates how the adaptation of large numbers of actors to these contextual changes had a major impact on the performance of the health system. Further, it documents how the Ministry of Health viewed its role as both an advocate for the interests of health facilities and health workers and as the agency responsible for ensuring that government health system objectives were met. It is argued that a major reason for the resilience of the health system and its ability to adapt to rapid economic and institutional change was the ability of the Ministry to provide overall strategy leadership. Additionally, it postulates that a number of interest groups have emerged, which now also seek to influence the pathway of health system development. This history illustrates the complex and political nature of the management of health system development and reform. The paper concludes that governments will need to increase their capacity to analyze the health sector as a complex system and to manage change processes.

How fisheries management can benefit from genomics?

PubMed

Valenzuela-Quiñonez, Fausto

2016-09-01

Fisheries genomics is an emerging field that advocates the application of genomic tools to address questions in fisheries management. Genomic approaches bring a new paradigm for fisheries management by making it possible to integrate adaptive diversity to understand fundamental aspects of fisheries resources. Hence, this review is focused on the relevance of genomic approaches to solve fisheries-specific questions. Particularly the detection of adaptive diversity (outlier loci) provides unprecedented opportunity to understand bio-complexity, increased power to trace processed sample origin to allow enforcement and the potential to understand the genetic basis of micro-evolutionary effects of fisheries-induced evolution and climate change. The understanding of adaptive diversity patterns will be the cornerstone of the future links between fisheries and genomics. These studies will help stakeholders anticipate the potential effects of fishing or climate change on the resilience of fisheries stocks; consequently, in the near future, fisheries sciences might integrate evolutionary principles with fisheries management. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Can we manage for biological diversity in the absence of science?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trauger, D.L.; Hall, R.J.

1995-01-01

Conservation of biological diversity is dependent on sound scientific information about underlying ecological processes. Current knowledge of the composition, distribution, abundance and life cycles of most species of plants and animals is incomplete, insufficient, unreliable, or nonexistent. Contemporary managers are also confronted with additional levels of complexity related to varying degrees of knowledge and understanding about interactions of species and ecosystems. Consequently, traditional species-oriented management schemes may have unintended consequences and ecosystem-oriented management initiatives may fail in the face of inadequate or fragmentary information on the structure, function, and dynamics of biotic communities and ecological systems. Nevertheless, resource managers must make decisions and manage based on the best biological information currently available. Adaptive resource management may represent a management paradigm that allows managers to learn something about the species or systems that they are managing while they are managing, but potential pitfalls lurk for such approaches. In addition to lack of control over the primary physical, chemical, and ecological processes, managers also lack control over social, economic, and political parameters affecting resource management options. Moreover, appropriate goals may be difficult to identify and criteria for determining success may be elusive. Some management responsibilities do not lend themselves to adaptive strategies. Finally, the lessons learned from adaptive management are usually obtained from a highly situational context that may limit applicability in a wider range of situations or undermine confidence that problems and solutions were properly diagnosed and addressed. Several scenarios are critically examined where adaptive management approaches may be inappropriate or ineffective and where management for biological diversity may be infeasible or inefficient without a sound scientific basis. Whereas some level of management must exist to meet agency responsibilities, more research is needed to conserve biological diversity.

Social-ecological resilience and social conflict: institutions and strategic adaptation in Swedish water management.

PubMed

Galaz, Victor

2005-11-01

Dealing with uncertainty and complexity in social-ecological systems is profoundly dependent on the ability of natural resource users to learn and adapt from ecological surprises and crises. This paper analyzes why and how learning processes are affected by strategic behavior among natural resource users and how social conflict is affected by social and ecological uncertainty. The claim is that social conflict among natural resource users seriously inhibits the possibilities of learning and adaptation in social-ecological systems. This is done combining insights from political science, experimental economics, and social-psychology and an analytical case study elaborating social conflict and institutional change in Swedish water management institutions. This paper also discusses the crucial role the institutional context plays in defining the outcome of learning processes in Swedish water management institutions and hence highlights previously poorly elaborated political aspects of learning processes and institutional change in social-ecological systems.

Adaptation Design Tool for Climate-Smart Management of Coral Reefs and Other Natural Resources.

PubMed

West, Jordan M; Courtney, Catherine A; Hamilton, Anna T; Parker, Britt A; Gibbs, David A; Bradley, Patricia; Julius, Susan H

2018-06-22

Scientists and managers of natural resources have recognized an urgent need for improved methods and tools to enable effective adaptation of management measures in the face of climate change. This paper presents an Adaptation Design Tool that uses a structured approach to break down an otherwise overwhelming and complex process into tractable steps. The tool contains worksheets that guide users through a series of design considerations for adapting their planned management actions to be more climate-smart given changing environmental stressors. Also provided with other worksheets is a framework for brainstorming new adaptation options in response to climate threats not yet addressed in the current plan. Developed and tested in collaboration with practitioners in Hawai'i and Puerto Rico using coral reefs as a pilot ecosystem, the tool and associated reference materials consist of worksheets, instructions and lessons-learned from real-world examples. On the basis of stakeholder feedback from expert consultations during tool development, we present insights and recommendations regarding how to maximize tool efficiency, gain the greatest value from the thought process, and deal with issues of scale and uncertainty. We conclude by reflecting on how the tool advances the theory and practice of assessment and decision-making science, informs higher level strategic planning, and serves as a platform for a systematic, transparent and inclusive process to tackle the practical implications of climate change for management of natural resources.

[Governance of tertiary referral hospitals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: a critical interpretive synthesis of the literature].

PubMed

Karemere, H; Kahindo, J B; Ribesse, N; Macq, J

2013-01-01

Because hospitals are complex enterprises requiring adaptive systems, it is appropriate to apply the theory and terminology of governance or even better adaptive governance to the interpretation of their management. This study focused on understanding hospital governance in Logo, Bunia, and Katana, three hospitals in two regions of the eastern DRC, which has been characterized by intermittent armed conflict since 1996. In such a context of war and continuous insecurity, how can governance be interpreted for hospitals required to adapt to a constantly changing environment to be able to continue to provide health care? A critical interpretive synthesis of the literature, identified by searching for keywords related to governance. The concepts of governance, adaptive governance, performance, leadership, and complex adaptive system concepts are defined. The interpretation of the concepts helps us to better understand (1) the hospital as a complex adaptive system, (2) the governance of tertiary referral hospitals, (3) analysis of hospital performance, and (4) leadership for good governance of these hospitals. The interpretation of these concepts raises several questions about their application to the eastern DRC. Conclusion. This critical interpretive synthesis opens the door to a new way of exploring tertiary hospitals and their governance in the eastern DRC.

50 CFR 217.77 - Renewal of a Letter of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

..., NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS REGULATIONS... to Space Vehicle and Missile Launches at Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska § 217.77 Renewal of a Letter...

50 CFR 217.77 - Renewal of a Letter of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

..., NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS REGULATIONS... to Space Vehicle and Missile Launches at Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska § 217.77 Renewal of a Letter...

50 CFR 217.77 - Renewal of a Letter of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

..., NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS REGULATIONS... to Space Vehicle and Missile Launches at Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska § 217.77 Renewal of a Letter...

50 CFR 217.77 - Renewal of a Letter of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

..., NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MARINE MAMMALS REGULATIONS... to Space Vehicle and Missile Launches at Kodiak Launch Complex, Alaska § 217.77 Renewal of a Letter...

People at the centre of complex adaptive health systems reform.

PubMed

Sturmberg, Joachim P; O'Halloran, Diana M; Martin, Carmel M

2010-10-18

Health systems are increasingly recognised to be complex adaptive systems (CASs), functionally characterised by their continuing and dynamic adaptation in response to core system drivers, or attractors. The core driver for our health system (and for the health reform strategies intended to achieve it) should clearly be the improvement of people's health - the personal experience of health, regardless of organic abnormalities; we contend that a patient-centred health system requires flexible localised decision making and resource use. The prevailing trend is to use disease protocols, financial management strategies and centralised control of siloed programs to manage our health system. This strategy is suggested to be fatally flawed, as: people's health and health experience as core system drivers are inevitably pre-empted by centralised and standardised strategies; the context specificity of personal experience and the capacity of local systems are overlooked; and in line with CAS patterns and characteristics, these strategies will lead to "unintended" consequences on all parts of the system. In Australia, there is still the time and opportunity for health system redesign that truly places people and their health at the core of the system.

Explaining spatial variability in stream habitats using both natural and management-influenced landscape predictors

Treesearch

K.J. Anlauf; D.W. Jensen; K.M. Burnett; E.A. Steel; K. Christiansen; J.C. Firman; B.E. Feist; D.P. Larsen

2011-01-01

1. The distribution and composition of in-stream habitats are reflections of landscape scale geomorphic and climatic controls. Correspondingly, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are largely adapted to and constrained by the quality and complexity of those in-stream habitat conditions. The degree to which lands have been fragmented and managed can...

Governance conditions for adaptive freshwater management in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, T. P.; Dieperink, Carel; Dang Tri, Van Pham; Otter, Henriëtte S.; Hoekstra, Piet

2018-02-01

The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is a region of utmost importance to Vietnam's national food security. However, the availability of required freshwater resources (from both surface and groundwater sources) is currently under great threats due to dry season salinity intrusion, surface water pollution, and over-exploitation of groundwater. Global climate change, sea level rise, and upstream and in situ development activities may worsen the situation. Assuming that adaptive management could be a promising strategy to address the increasingly complex and unpredictable water-related problems in the VMD, we design and apply a framework to identify the extent to which the governance regime in this region exhibits conditions that are likely to promote adaptive freshwater management. Using both primary and secondary data, our analysis reveals that the prospects for adaptive water management in the study area are limited since several conditions were not present. We observe among others limitations in vertical and horizontal integration and public participation, restraints in knowledge and information sharing, inadequate policy development and implementation, and insufficient diversification of financial resources. Following our findings, we conclude the paper with recommendations both for national, regional and local policy interventions and for future research.

Configuration Management at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Doreswamy, Rajiv

2013-01-01

NASA programs are characterized by complexity, harsh environments and the fact that we usually have one chance to get it right. Programs last decades and need to accept new hardware and technology as it is developed. We have multiple suppliers and international partners Our challenges are many, our costs are high and our failures are highly visible. CM systems need to be scalable, adaptable to new technology and span the life cycle of the program (30+ years). Multiple Systems, Contractors and Countries added major levels of complexity to the ISS program and CM/DM and Requirements management systems center dot CM Systems need to be designed for long design life center dot Space Station Design started in 1984 center dot Assembly Complete in 2012 center dot Systems were developed on a task basis without an overall system perspective center dot Technology moves faster than a large project office, try to make sure you have a system that can adapt

Adaptive invasive species distribution models: A framework for modeling incipient invasions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Uden, Daniel R.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.; Corral, Lucia; Fricke, Kent A.

2015-01-01

The utilization of species distribution model(s) (SDM) for approximating, explaining, and predicting changes in species’ geographic locations is increasingly promoted for proactive ecological management. Although frameworks for modeling non-invasive species distributions are relatively well developed, their counterparts for invasive species—which may not be at equilibrium within recipient environments and often exhibit rapid transformations—are lacking. Additionally, adaptive ecological management strategies address the causes and effects of biological invasions and other complex issues in social-ecological systems. We conducted a review of biological invasions, species distribution models, and adaptive practices in ecological management, and developed a framework for adaptive, niche-based, invasive species distribution model (iSDM) development and utilization. This iterative, 10-step framework promotes consistency and transparency in iSDM development, allows for changes in invasive drivers and filters, integrates mechanistic and correlative modeling techniques, balances the avoidance of type 1 and type 2 errors in predictions, encourages the linking of monitoring and management actions, and facilitates incremental improvements in models and management across space, time, and institutional boundaries. These improvements are useful for advancing coordinated invasive species modeling, management and monitoring from local scales to the regional, continental and global scales at which biological invasions occur and harm native ecosystems and economies, as well as for anticipating and responding to biological invasions under continuing global change.

Expanding the prevention armamentarium portfolio: A framework for promoting HIV-Conversant Communities within a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape

PubMed Central

Burman, Christopher J.; Aphane, Marota; Mtapuri, Oliver; Delobelle, Peter

2015-01-01

Abstract The article describes a design journey that culminated in an HIV-Conversant Community Framework that is now being piloted in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. The objective of the initiative is to reduce the aggregate community viral load by building capacity at multiple scales that strengthens peoples' HIV-related navigational skill sets—while simultaneously opening a ‘chronic situation’ schema. The framework design is based upon a transdisciplinary methodological combination that synthesises ideas and constructs from complexity science and the management sciences as a vehicle through which to re-conceptualise HIV prevention. This resulted in a prototype that included the following constructs: managing HIV-prevention in a complex, adaptive epidemiological landscape; problematising and increasing the scope of the HIV knowledge armamentarium through education that focuses on the viral load and Langerhans cells; disruptive innovation and safe-fail probes followed by the facilitation of path creations and pattern management implementation techniques. These constructs are underpinned by a ‘middle-ground’ prevention approach which is designed to bridge the prevention ‘fault line’, enabling a multi-ontology conceptualisation of the challenge to be developed. The article concludes that stepping outside of the ‘ordered’ epistemological parameters of the existing prevention ‘messaging’ mind-set towards a more systemic approach that emphasises agency, structure and social practices as a contribution to ‘ending AIDS by 2030’ is worthy of further attention if communities are to engage more adaptively with the dynamic HIV landscape in South Africa. PMID:25888256

Study of the Performance of Faculty Members According to Talent Management Approach in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moghtadaie, Leila; Taji, Maryam

2016-01-01

Nowadays, the success of any organization depends on the shaping of policies tailored to the needs of human resources; otherwise, it will lose the ability to adapt to today's complex environment and the ability to use the effectiveness of human resources. For this reason, Talent Management can help to attract, nurture and develop the next…

Information Dynamics as Foundation for Network Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-04

developed to adapt to channel dynamics in a mobile network environment. We devise a low- complexity online scheduling algorithm integrated with the...has been accepted for the Journal on Network and Systems Management in 2014. - RINC programmable platform for Infrastructure -as-a-Service public... backend servers. Rather than implementing load balancing in dedicated appliances, commodity SDN switches can perform this function. We design

An emerging crisis across northern prairie refuges: Prevalence of invasive plants and a plan for adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, T.A.; Flanders-Wanner, B.; Shaffer, T.L.; Murphy, R.K.; Knutsen, G.A.

2009-01-01

In the northern Great Plains, native prairies managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) can be pivotal in conservation of North America's biological diversity. From 2002 to 2006, we surveyed 7,338 belt transects to assess the general composition of mixed-grass and tallgrass prairie vegetation across five "complexes" (i.e., administrative groupings) of national wildlife refuges managed by the Service in North Dakota and South Dakota. Native grasses and forbs were common (mean frequency of occurrence 47%-54%) on two complexes but uncommon (4%-13%) on two others. Conversely, an introduced species of grass, smooth brome (Bromus inermis), accounted for 45% to 49% of vegetation on two complexes and another species, Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) accounted for 27% to 36% of the vegetation on three of the complexes. Our data confirm prior suspicions of widespread invasion by introduced species of plants on Service-owned tracts of native prairie, changes that likely stem in part from a common management history of little or no disturbance (e.g., defoliation by grazing or fire). However, variability in the degree and type of invasion among prairie tracts suggests that knowledge of underlying causes (e.g., edaphic or climatic factors, management histories) could help managers more effectively restore prairies. We describe an adaptive management approach to acquire such knowledge while progressing with restoration. More specifically, we propose to use data from inventories of plant communities on Service-owned prairies to design and implement, as experiments, optimal restoration strategies. We will then monitor these experiments and use the results to refine future strategies. This comprehensive, process-oriented approach should yield reliable and robust recommendations for restoration and maintenance of native prairies in the northern Great Plains. 2009 by the Board of Regents of the University of Wisconsin System.

Systems thinking and complexity: considerations for health promoting schools.

PubMed

Rosas, Scott R

2017-04-01

The health promoting schools concept reflects a comprehensive and integrated philosophy to improving student and personnel health and well-being. Conceptualized as a configuration of interacting, interdependent parts connected through a web of relationships that form a whole greater than the sum of its parts, school health promotion initiatives often target several levels (e.g. individual, professional, procedural and policy) simultaneously. Health promoting initiatives, such as those operationalized under the whole school approach, include several interconnected components that are coordinated to improve health outcomes in complex settings. These complex systems interventions are embedded in intricate arrangements of physical, biological, ecological, social, political and organizational relationships. Systems thinking and characteristics of complex adaptive systems are introduced in this article to provide a perspective that emphasizes the patterns of inter-relationships associated with the nonlinear, dynamic and adaptive nature of complex hierarchical systems. Four systems thinking areas: knowledge, networks, models and organizing are explored as a means to further manage the complex nature of the development and sustainability of health promoting schools. Applying systems thinking and insights about complex adaptive systems can illuminate how to address challenges found in settings with both complicated (i.e. multi-level and multisite) and complex aspects (i.e. synergistic processes and emergent outcomes). © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glynn, Pierre D.; Voinov, Alexey A.; Shapiro, Carl D.; White, Paul A.

2017-04-01

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an "Open Traceable Accountable Policy" initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

The Genome-based Knowledge Management in Cycles model: a complex adaptive systems framework for implementation of genomic applications.

PubMed

Arar, Nedal; Knight, Sara J; Modell, Stephen M; Issa, Amalia M

2011-03-01

The main mission of the Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention Network™ is to advance collaborative efforts involving partners from across the public health sector to realize the promise of genomics in healthcare and disease prevention. We introduce a new framework that supports the Genomic Applications in Practice and Prevention Network mission and leverages the characteristics of the complex adaptive systems approach. We call this framework the Genome-based Knowledge Management in Cycles model (G-KNOMIC). G-KNOMIC proposes that the collaborative work of multidisciplinary teams utilizing genome-based applications will enhance translating evidence-based genomic findings by creating ongoing knowledge management cycles. Each cycle consists of knowledge synthesis, knowledge evaluation, knowledge implementation and knowledge utilization. Our framework acknowledges that all the elements in the knowledge translation process are interconnected and continuously changing. It also recognizes the importance of feedback loops, and the ability of teams to self-organize within a dynamic system. We demonstrate how this framework can be used to improve the adoption of genomic technologies into practice using two case studies of genomic uptake.

Water Management Decisions within a Changing Hydrologic Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2013-12-01

Across the United States and around the world we are facing unprecedented demands on our surface and ground water. Increasing population demands coupled with maintaining water quality, supporting species and ecosystem services, distribution of supply, hydrologic variability associated with changing climatic conditions - all require us to look more rigorously at the intersection of policy, management and science. The water supply and hydroelectric constituencies has embraced the concept of Adaptive Management in balancing the needs of resources, people, economies and providing ecosystem support. In its infancy Adaptive Management was employed as a way to move forward on dam operation and reservoir management decisions while recognizing the unknowns of how up or downstream physical and biological elements of freshwater systems would respond. River science at the time was not mature or expansive enough to address the interrelated and complex impacts of the nuances of changing operations of dams. Adaptive Management, the concept, made good sense and has provided a framework to inform management and policy decisions while keeping the door open for integrating new knowledge into a management matrix - the essence of adaptation. The application of Adaptive Management principles has continued to expand as water management demands increase. The application and reality of the use of Adaptive Management has had variable success. In the United States we have over 25 federal agencies that have water in their mission statements. Combine this with 50 states with their own water management requirements, Native American Tribes, and countless watershed and local water supply constraints and you get a sense of the challenge associated with collaborating and addressing water management issues. Without having a set of national water objectives and goals (a National Water Policy) it is up to the collaboration and integration of the multiple water silos with appropriate science. It is within this context that river restoration and management case studies will be explored to evaluate opportunities, challenges, the process of integrating science-policy-management, and some perspectives on the possible options for building a water future. A water future that embraces the essence of Adaptive Management without using the concept as a convenient mechanism for avoiding having to make difficult decisions on water management. The review will include assessing the application of various tools including hydrologic and ecosystem models, experimental floods, channel-cleansing flows, manipulation of habitats, and seasonal allocation of water to provide flooding of estuary habitats and river mouths for water volume and water quality purposes.

Learning and adaptation in waterfowl conservation: By chance or by design?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Fred A.; Case, David J.; Humburg, Dale H.

2016-01-01

The most recent revision of the North American Waterfowl Management Plan seeks to increase the adaptive capacity of the management enterprise to cope with accelerating changes in climate, land-use patterns, agency priorities, and the waterfowl and wetlands constituency. Institutional and cultural changes of the magnitude envisioned are necessarily slow, messy processes, involving many actors who at a minimum must agree on the need for change. Waterfowl conservation now finds itself in the transition zone between business as usual and some new mode of operation. There are at least 2 different perspectives of this transition: one focuses on process, accountability, and planning for change; another focuses on solutions generated from an organic process of creativity, information sharing, and risk-taking. Both of these views have something to contribute, but some in the wildlife management enterprise may tend to focus more on the first view. We suggest that ideas from panarchy theory, especially those related to the behaviors of complex adaptive systems, can help waterfowl managers better understand and foster the institutional changes they seek.

The T.M.R. Data Dictionary: A Management Tool for Data Base Design

PubMed Central

Ostrowski, Maureen; Bernes, Marshall R.

1984-01-01

In January 1981, a dictionary-driven ambulatory care information system known as TMR (The Medical Record) was installed at a large private medical group practice in Los Angeles. TMR's data dictionary has enabled the medical group to adapt the software to meet changing user needs largely without programming support. For top management, the dictionary is also a tool for navigating through the system's complexity and assuring the integrity of management goals.

Coping, adapting or self-managing - what is the difference? A concept review based on the neurological literature.

PubMed

Audulv, Åsa; Packer, Tanya; Hutchinson, Susan; Roger, Kerstin S; Kephart, George

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to report: (1) an analysis of the concepts of coping, adaptation and self-management in the context of managing a neurological condition; and (2) the overlap between the concepts. The three concepts are often confused or used interchangeably. Understanding similarities and differences between concepts will avoid misunderstandings in care. The varied and often unpredictable symptoms and degenerative nature of neurological conditions make this an ideal population in which to examine the concepts. Concept analysis. Articles were extracted from a large literature review about living with a neurological condition. The original searches were conducted using SCOPUS, EMBASE, CINAHL and Psych INFO. Seventy-seven articles met the inclusion criteria of: (1) original article concerning coping, adaptation or self-management of a neurological condition; (2) written in English; and (3) published between 1999-2011. The concepts were examined according to Morse's concept analysis method; structural elements were then compared. Coping and adaptation to a neurological condition showed statistically significant overlap with a common focus on internal management. In contrast, self-management appears to focus on disease-controlling and health-related management strategies. Coping appears to be the most mature concept, whereas self-management is least coherent in definition and application. All three concepts are relevant for people with neurological conditions. Healthcare teams need to be cautious when using these terms to avoid miscommunication and to ensure clients have access to all needed interventions. Viewing the three concepts as a complex whole may be more aligned with client experience. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Medication Management: The Macrocognitive Workflow of Older Adults With Heart Failure.

PubMed

Mickelson, Robin S; Unertl, Kim M; Holden, Richard J

2016-10-12

Older adults with chronic disease struggle to manage complex medication regimens. Health information technology has the potential to improve medication management, but only if it is based on a thorough understanding of the complexity of medication management workflow as it occurs in natural settings. Prior research reveals that patient work related to medication management is complex, cognitive, and collaborative. Macrocognitive processes are theorized as how people individually and collaboratively think in complex, adaptive, and messy nonlaboratory settings supported by artifacts. The objective of this research was to describe and analyze the work of medication management by older adults with heart failure, using a macrocognitive workflow framework. We interviewed and observed 61 older patients along with 30 informal caregivers about self-care practices including medication management. Descriptive qualitative content analysis methods were used to develop categories, subcategories, and themes about macrocognitive processes used in medication management workflow. We identified 5 high-level macrocognitive processes affecting medication management-sensemaking, planning, coordination, monitoring, and decision making-and 15 subprocesses. Data revealed workflow as occurring in a highly collaborative, fragile system of interacting people, artifacts, time, and space. Process breakdowns were common and patients had little support for macrocognitive workflow from current tools. Macrocognitive processes affected medication management performance. Describing and analyzing this performance produced recommendations for technology supporting collaboration and sensemaking, decision making and problem detection, and planning and implementation.

[Intervention of Schizophrenia From the Community Model].

PubMed

Taborda Zapata, Eliana María; Montoya González, Laura Elisa; Gómez Sierra, Natalia María; Arteaga Morales, Laura María; Correa Rico, Oscar Andrés

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia is a complex disease for which pharmacological management is an insufficient therapeutic measure to ensure adaptation to the community and restoring the quality of life of the patient, with a multidimensional management and community interventions being necessary. Case report. This case report illustrates a multidisciplinary treatment response, based on a community care model for mental health from Envigado, Colombia. The management of schizophrenia requires multimodal interventions that include community screening, psychoeducation of individuals, their families and society, addressing different areas of operation that allow adaptation of the subject to his social environment. A integrated intervention that can be provided on a Community scale, with the implementation of policies that allow it to be applied. Copyright © 2015 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

Use of complex adaptive systems metaphor to achieve professional and organizational change.

PubMed

Rowe, Ann; Hogarth, Annette

2005-08-01

This paper uses the experiences of a programme designed to bring about change in performance of public health nurses (health visitors and school nurses) in an inner city primary care trust, to explore the issues of professional and organizational change in health care organizations. The United Kingdom government has given increasing emphasis to programmes of modernization within the National Health Service. A central facet of this policy shift has been an expectation of behaviour and practice change by health care professionals. Change was brought about through use of a Complex Adaptive Systems approach. This enabled change to be seen as an inclusive, evolving and unpredictable process rather one which is linear and mechanistic. The paper examines in detail how the use of concepts and metaphors associated with Complex Adaptive Systems influenced the development of the programme, its implementation and outcomes. The programme resulted in extensive change in professional behaviour, service delivery and transformational change in the organizational structures and processes of the employing organization. This gave greater opportunities for experimentation and innovation, leading to new developments in service delivery, but also meant higher levels of uncertainty, responsibility, decision-making and risk management for practitioners. Using a Complex Adaptive Systems approach was helpful for developing alternative views of change and for understanding why and how some aspects of change were more successful than others. Its use encouraged the confrontation of some long-standing assumptions about change and service delivery patterns in the National Health Service, and the process exposed challenging tensions within the Service. The consequent destabilising of organizational and professional norms resulted in considerable emotional impacts for practitioners, an area which was found to be underplayed within the Complex Adaptive Systems literature. A Complex Adaptive Systems approach can support change, in particular a recognition and understanding of the emergence of unexpected structures, patterns and processes. The approach can support nurses to change their behaviour and innovate, but requires high levels of accountability, individual and professional creativity.

An adaptable XML based approach for scientific data management and integration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fusheng; Thiel, Florian; Furrer, Daniel; Vergara-Niedermayr, Cristobal; Qin, Chen; Hackenberg, Georg; Bourgue, Pierre-Emmanuel; Kaltschmidt, David; Wang, Mo

2008-03-01

Increased complexity of scientific research poses new challenges to scientific data management. Meanwhile, scientific collaboration is becoming increasing important, which relies on integrating and sharing data from distributed institutions. We develop SciPort, a Web-based platform on supporting scientific data management and integration based on a central server based distributed architecture, where researchers can easily collect, publish, and share their complex scientific data across multi-institutions. SciPort provides an XML based general approach to model complex scientific data by representing them as XML documents. The documents capture not only hierarchical structured data, but also images and raw data through references. In addition, SciPort provides an XML based hierarchical organization of the overall data space to make it convenient for quick browsing. To provide generalization, schemas and hierarchies are customizable with XML-based definitions, thus it is possible to quickly adapt the system to different applications. While each institution can manage documents on a Local SciPort Server independently, selected documents can be published to a Central Server to form a global view of shared data across all sites. By storing documents in a native XML database, SciPort provides high schema extensibility and supports comprehensive queries through XQuery. By providing a unified and effective means for data modeling, data access and customization with XML, SciPort provides a flexible and powerful platform for sharing scientific data for scientific research communities, and has been successfully used in both biomedical research and clinical trials.

An Adaptable XML Based Approach for Scientific Data Management and Integration.

PubMed

Wang, Fusheng; Thiel, Florian; Furrer, Daniel; Vergara-Niedermayr, Cristobal; Qin, Chen; Hackenberg, Georg; Bourgue, Pierre-Emmanuel; Kaltschmidt, David; Wang, Mo

2008-02-20

Increased complexity of scientific research poses new challenges to scientific data management. Meanwhile, scientific collaboration is becoming increasing important, which relies on integrating and sharing data from distributed institutions. We develop SciPort, a Web-based platform on supporting scientific data management and integration based on a central server based distributed architecture, where researchers can easily collect, publish, and share their complex scientific data across multi-institutions. SciPort provides an XML based general approach to model complex scientific data by representing them as XML documents. The documents capture not only hierarchical structured data, but also images and raw data through references. In addition, SciPort provides an XML based hierarchical organization of the overall data space to make it convenient for quick browsing. To provide generalization, schemas and hierarchies are customizable with XML-based definitions, thus it is possible to quickly adapt the system to different applications. While each institution can manage documents on a Local SciPort Server independently, selected documents can be published to a Central Server to form a global view of shared data across all sites. By storing documents in a native XML database, SciPort provides high schema extensibility and supports comprehensive queries through XQuery. By providing a unified and effective means for data modeling, data access and customization with XML, SciPort provides a flexible and powerful platform for sharing scientific data for scientific research communities, and has been successfully used in both biomedical research and clinical trials.

Water Resources and Supply Adaptation: A paradigm Shifting for Future Climate?

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change adds another layer of complexity in planning, engineering and management of water resources and urban water infrastructures. Yet our current practice is confined to the traditional approach that evaluates developmental scenarios and their sustainability mostly by a...

A framework for exploring integrated learning systems for the governance and management of public protected areas.

PubMed

Nkhata, Bimo Abraham; Breen, Charles

2010-02-01

This article discusses how the concept of integrated learning systems provides a useful means of exploring the functional linkages between the governance and management of public protected areas. It presents a conceptual framework of an integrated learning system that explicitly incorporates learning processes in governance and management subsystems. The framework is premised on the assumption that an understanding of an integrated learning system is essential if we are to successfully promote learning across multiple scales as a fundamental component of adaptability in the governance and management of protected areas. The framework is used to illustrate real-world situations that reflect the nature and substance of the linkages between governance and management. Drawing on lessons from North America and Africa, the article demonstrates that the establishment and maintenance of an integrated learning system take place in a complex context which links elements of governance learning and management learning subsystems. The degree to which the two subsystems are coupled influences the performance of an integrated learning system and ultimately adaptability. Such performance is largely determined by how integrated learning processes allow for the systematic testing of societal assumptions (beliefs, values, and public interest) to enable society and protected area agencies to adapt and learn in the face of social and ecological change. It is argued that an integrated perspective provides a potentially useful framework for explaining and improving shared understanding around which the concept of adaptability is structured and implemented.

Using large-scale flow experiments to rehabilitate Colorado River ecosystem function in Grand Canyon: Basis for an adaptive climate-resilient strategy: Chapter 17

USGS Publications Warehouse

Melis, Theodore S.; Pine, William E.; Korman, Josh; Yard, Michael D.; Jain, Shaleen; Pulwarty, Roger S.; Miller, Kathleen; Hamlet, Alan F.; Kenney, Douglas S.; Redmond, Kelly T.

2016-01-01

Adaptive management of Glen Canyon Dam is improving downstream resources of the Colorado River in Glen Canyon National Recreation Area and Grand Canyon National Park. The Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program (AMP), a federal advisory committee of 25 members with diverse special interests tasked to advise the U.S. Department of the Interior), was established in 1997 in response to the 1992 Grand Canyon Protection Act. Adaptive management assumes that ecosystem responses to management policies are inherently complex and unpredictable, but that understanding and management can be improved through monitoring. Best known for its high-flow experiments intended to benefit physical and biological resources by simulating one aspect of pre-dam conditions—floods, the AMP promotes collaboration among tribal, recreation, hydropower, environmental, water and other natural resource management interests. Monitoring has shown that high flow experiments move limited new tributary sand inputs below the dam from the bottom of the Colorado River to shorelines; rebuilding eroded sandbars that support camping areas and other natural and cultural resources. Spring-timed high flows have also been shown to stimulate aquatic productivity by disturbing the river bed below the dam in Glen Canyon. Understanding about how nonnative tailwater rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and downstream endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) respond to dam operations has also increased, but this learning has mostly posed “surprise” adaptation opportunities to managers. Since reoperation of the dam to Modified Low Fluctuating Flows in 1996, rainbow trout now benefit from more stable daily flows and high spring releases, but possibly at a risk to humpback chub and other native fishes downstream. In contrast, humpback chub have so far proven robust to all flows, and native fish have increased under the combination of warmer river temperatures associated with reduced storage in Lake Powell, and a system-wide reduction in trout from 2000-06, possibly due to several years of natural reproduction under limited food supply. Uncertainties about dam operations and ecosystem responses remain, including how native and nonnative fish will interact and respond to possible increased river temperatures under drier basin conditions. Ongoing assessment of operating policies by the AMP’s diverse stakeholders represents a major commitment to the river’s valued resources, while surprise learning opportunities can also help identify a resilient climate-change strategy for co-managing nonnative and endangered native fish, sandbar habitats and other river resources in a region with already complex and ever-increasing water demands.

A decision support tool for adaptive management of native prairie ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Victoria M.; Jacobi, Sarah; Gannon, Jill J.; Zorn, Jennifer E.; Moore, Clinton; Lonsdorf, Eric V.

2016-01-01

The Native Prairie Adaptive Management initiative is a decision support framework that provides cooperators with management-action recommendations to help them conserve native species and suppress invasive species on prairie lands. We developed a Web-based decision support tool (DST) for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey initiative. The DST facilitates cross-organizational data sharing, performs analyses to improve conservation delivery, and requires no technical expertise to operate. Each year since 2012, the DST has used monitoring data to update ecological knowledge that it translates into situation-specific management-action recommendations (e.g., controlled burn or prescribed graze). The DST provides annual recommendations for more than 10,000 acres on 20 refuge complexes in four U.S. states. We describe how the DST promotes the long-term implementation of the program for which it was designed and may facilitate decision support and improve ecological outcomes of other conservation efforts.

Security engineering: systems engineering of security through the adaptation and application of risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gilliam, David P.; Feather, Martin S.

2004-01-01

Information Technology (IT) Security Risk Management is a critical task in the organization, which must protect its resources and data against the loss of confidentiality, integrity, and availability. As systems become more complex and diverse, and more vulnerabilities are discovered while attacks from intrusions and malicious content increase, it is becoming increasingly difficult to manage IT security. This paper describes an approach to address IT security risk through risk management and mitigation in both the institution and in the project life cycle.

Medication Management: The Macrocognitive Workflow of Older Adults With Heart Failure

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Background Older adults with chronic disease struggle to manage complex medication regimens. Health information technology has the potential to improve medication management, but only if it is based on a thorough understanding of the complexity of medication management workflow as it occurs in natural settings. Prior research reveals that patient work related to medication management is complex, cognitive, and collaborative. Macrocognitive processes are theorized as how people individually and collaboratively think in complex, adaptive, and messy nonlaboratory settings supported by artifacts. Objective The objective of this research was to describe and analyze the work of medication management by older adults with heart failure, using a macrocognitive workflow framework. Methods We interviewed and observed 61 older patients along with 30 informal caregivers about self-care practices including medication management. Descriptive qualitative content analysis methods were used to develop categories, subcategories, and themes about macrocognitive processes used in medication management workflow. Results We identified 5 high-level macrocognitive processes affecting medication management—sensemaking, planning, coordination, monitoring, and decision making—and 15 subprocesses. Data revealed workflow as occurring in a highly collaborative, fragile system of interacting people, artifacts, time, and space. Process breakdowns were common and patients had little support for macrocognitive workflow from current tools. Conclusions Macrocognitive processes affected medication management performance. Describing and analyzing this performance produced recommendations for technology supporting collaboration and sensemaking, decision making and problem detection, and planning and implementation. PMID:27733331

Adopting best practices: "Agility" moves from software development to healthcare project management.

PubMed

Kitzmiller, Rebecca; Hunt, Eleanor; Sproat, Sara Breckenridge

2006-01-01

It is time for a change in mindset in how nurses operationalize system implementations and manage projects. Computers and systems have evolved over time from unwieldy mysterious machines of the past to ubiquitous computer use in every aspect of daily lives and work sites. Yet, disconcertingly, the process used to implement these systems has not evolved. Technology implementation does not need to be a struggle. It is time to adapt traditional plan-driven implementation methods to incorporate agile techniques. Agility is a concept borrowed from software development and is presented here because it encourages flexibility, adaptation, and continuous learning as part of the implementation process. Agility values communication and harnesses change to an advantage, which facilitates the natural evolution of an adaptable implementation process. Specific examples of agility in an implementation are described, and plan-driven implementation stages are adapted to incorporate relevant agile techniques. This comparison demonstrates how an agile approach enhances traditional implementation techniques to meet the demands of today's complex healthcare environments.

Risk-Return Relationship in a Complex Adaptive System

PubMed Central

Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics. PMID:22479416

Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

PubMed

Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

2012-01-01

For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

Managing clinical failure: a complex adaptive system perspective.

PubMed

Matthews, Jean I; Thomas, Paul T

2007-01-01

The purpose of this article is to explore the knowledge capture process at the clinical level. It aims to identify factors that enable or constrain learning. The study applies complex adaptive system thinking principles to reconcile learning within the NHS. The paper uses a qualitative exploratory study with an interpretative methodological stance set in a secondary care NHS Trust. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with healthcare practitioners and managers involved at both strategic and operational risk management processes. A network structure is revealed that exhibits the communication and interdependent working practices to support knowledge capture and adaptive learning. Collaborative multidisciplinary communities, whose values reflect local priorities and promote open dialogue and reflection, are featured. The main concern is that the characteristics of bureaucracy; rational-legal authority, a rule-based culture, hierarchical lines of communication and a centralised governance focus, are hindering clinical learning by generating barriers. Locally emergent collaborative processes are a key strategic resource to capture knowledge, potentially fostering an environment that could learn from failure and translate lessons between contexts. What must be addressed is that reporting mechanisms serve not only the governance objectives, but also supplement learning by highlighting the potential lessons in context. Managers must nurture a collaborative infrastructure using networks in a co-evolutionary manner. Their role is not to direct and design processes but to influence, support and create effective knowledge capture. Although the study only investigated one site the findings and conclusions may well translate to other trusts--such as the risk of not enabling a learning environment at clinical levels.

Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique; Essiembre, Hélène

2010-01-01

It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the chair emerged. The 'general context' pertains to the health-related challenge of finding ways to integrate, transfer, and implement knowledge, a particularly pointed challenge in Canada. The 'specific context' refers to the emerging research field of adaptation of public health to climate change. In the second section, the characteristics of the research chair are more extensively detailed (the vision of 'innoversity' and ' transfrontier knowledge-for-action,' the approach of shared responsibility and complex collaboration, objectives, and major axes of research). We conclude with a call for complex collaboration toward knowledge-for-action in public health services/mental health services/public services' adaptation to climate change: this call is aimed at individual and institutional actors in the North and South/West and East concerned by these issues.

Improvement of the F-Perceptory Approach Through Management of Fuzzy Complex Geographic Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khalfi, B.; de Runz, C.; Faiz, S.; Akdag, H.

2015-08-01

In the real world, data is imperfect and in various ways such as imprecision, vagueness, uncertainty, ambiguity and inconsistency. For geographic data, the fuzzy aspect is mainly manifested in time, space and the function of objects and is due to a lack of precision. Therefore, the researchers in the domain emphasize the importance of modeling data structures in GIS but also their lack of adaptation to fuzzy data. The F-Perceptory approachh manages the modeling of imperfect geographic information with UML. This management is essential to maintain faithfulness to reality and to better guide the user in his decision-making. However, this approach does not manage fuzzy complex geographic objects. The latter presents a multiple object with similar or different geographic shapes. So, in this paper, we propose to improve the F-Perceptory approach by proposing to handle fuzzy complex geographic objects modeling. In a second step, we propose its transformation to the UML modeling.

A user's guide to coping with estuarine management bureaucracy: An Estuarine Planning Support System (EPSS) tool.

PubMed

Lonsdale, Jemma; Nicholson, Rose; Weston, Keith; Elliott, Michael; Birchenough, Andrew; Sühring, Roxana

2018-02-01

Estuaries are amongst the most socio-economically and ecologically important environments however, due to competing and conflicting demands, management is often challenging with a complex legislative framework managed by multiple agencies. To facilitate the understanding of this legislative framework, we have developed a GISbased Estuarine Planning Support System tool. The tool integrates the requirements of the relevant legislation and provides a basis for assessing the current environmental state of an estuary as well as informing and assessing new plans to ensure a healthy estuarine state. The tool ensures that the information is easily accessible for regulators, managers, developers and the public. The tool is intended to be adaptable, but is assessed using the Humber Estuary, United Kingdom as a case study area. The successful application of the tool for complex socio-economic and environmental systems demonstrates that the tool can efficiently guide users through the complex requirements needed to support sustainable development. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trajectory Planning by Preserving Flexibility: Metrics and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni R.; El-Wakil, Tarek; Wing, David J.

2008-01-01

In order to support traffic management functions, such as mitigating traffic complexity, ground and airborne systems may benefit from preserving or optimizing trajectory flexibility. To help support this hypothesis trajectory flexibility metrics have been defined in previous work to represent the trajectory robustness and adaptability to the risk of violating safety and traffic management constraints. In this paper these metrics are instantiated in the case of planning a trajectory with the heading degree of freedom. A metric estimation method is presented based on simplifying assumptions, namely discrete time and heading maneuvers. A case is analyzed to demonstrate the estimation method and its use in trajectory planning in a situation involving meeting a time constraint and avoiding loss of separation with nearby traffic. The case involves comparing path-stretch trajectories, in terms of adaptability and robustness along each, deduced from a map of estimated flexibility metrics over the solution space. The case demonstrated anecdotally that preserving flexibility may result in enhancing certain factors that contribute to traffic complexity, namely reducing proximity and confrontation.

Micro practices of coordination based on complex adaptive systems: user needs and strategies for coordinating public health in Denmark.

PubMed

Terkildsen, Morten Deleuran; Wittrup, Inge; Burau, Viola

2015-01-01

Many highly formalised approaches to coordination poorly fit public health and recent studies call for coordination based on complex adaptive systems. Our contribution is two-fold. Empirically, we focus on public health, and theoretically we build on the patient perspective and treat coordination as a process of contingent, two-level negotiations of user needs. The paper draws on the concept of user needs-based coordination and sees coordination as a process, whereby needs emerging from the life world of the user are made amenable to the health system through negotiations. The analysis is based on an explorative case study of a health promotion initiative in Denmark. It adopts an anthropological qualitative approach and uses a range of qualitative data. The analysis identifies four strategies of coordination: the coordinator focusing on the individual user or on relations with other professionals; and the manager coaching the coordinator or providing structural support. Crucially, the coordination strategies by management remain weak as they do not directly relate to specific user needs. In process of bottom-up negotiations user needs become blurred and this is especially a challenge for management. The study therefore calls for an increased focus on the level nature of negotiations to bridge the gap that currently weakens coordination strategies by management.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty and Complexity: A Model-Based Scenario Approach to Supporting Integrated Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Gupta, H.; Wagener, T.; Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Hartmann, H.; Springer, E.

2007-12-01

Some of the most challenging issues facing contemporary water resources management are those typified by complex coupled human-environmental systems with poorly characterized uncertainties. In other words, major decisions regarding water resources have to be made in the face of substantial uncertainty and complexity. It has been suggested that integrated models can be used to coherently assemble information from a broad set of domains, and can therefore serve as an effective means for tackling the complexity of environmental systems. Further, well-conceived scenarios can effectively inform decision making, particularly when high complexity and poorly characterized uncertainties make the problem intractable via traditional uncertainty analysis methods. This presentation discusses the integrated modeling framework adopted by SAHRA, an NSF Science & Technology Center, to investigate stakeholder-driven water sustainability issues within the semi-arid southwestern US. The multi-disciplinary, multi-resolution modeling framework incorporates a formal scenario approach to analyze the impacts of plausible (albeit uncertain) alternative futures to support adaptive management of water resources systems. Some of the major challenges involved in, and lessons learned from, this effort will be discussed.

Where you stand depends on where you sit: Qualitative inquiry into notions of fire adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brenkert-Smith, Hannah; Meldrum, James; Champ, Patricia A.; Barth, Christopher

2017-01-01

Wildfire and the threat it poses to society represents an example of the complex, dynamic relationship between social and ecological systems. Increasingly, wildfire adaptation is posited as a pathway to shift the approach to fire from a suppression paradigm that seeks to control fire to a paradigm that focuses on “living with” and “adapting to” wildfire. In this study, we seek insights into what it means to adapt to wildfire from a range of stakeholders whose efforts contribute to the management of wildfire. Study participants provided insights into the meaning, relevance, and use of the concept of fire adaptation as it relates to their wildfire-related activities. A key finding of this investigation suggests that social scale is of key importance in the conceptualization and understanding of adaptation for participating stakeholders. Indeed, where you stand in terms of understandings of fire adaptation depends in large part on where you sit.

Application fields for the new Object Management Group (OMG) Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN) in the perioperative field.

PubMed

Wiemuth, M; Junger, D; Leitritz, M A; Neumann, J; Neumuth, T; Burgert, O

2017-08-01

Medical processes can be modeled using different methods and notations. Currently used modeling systems like Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) are not capable of describing the highly flexible and variable medical processes in sufficient detail. We combined two modeling systems, Business Process Management (BPM) and Adaptive Case Management (ACM), to be able to model non-deterministic medical processes. We used the new Standards Case Management Model and Notation (CMMN) and Decision Management Notation (DMN). First, we explain how CMMN, DMN and BPMN could be used to model non-deterministic medical processes. We applied this methodology to model 79 cataract operations provided by University Hospital Leipzig, Germany, and four cataract operations provided by University Eye Hospital Tuebingen, Germany. Our model consists of 85 tasks and about 20 decisions in BPMN. We were able to expand the system with more complex situations that might appear during an intervention. An effective modeling of the cataract intervention is possible using the combination of BPM and ACM. The combination gives the possibility to depict complex processes with complex decisions. This combination allows a significant advantage for modeling perioperative processes.

Introduction: contexts and concepts of adaptability and plasticity in 20th-century plant science.

PubMed

Baranski, Marci; Peirson, B R Erick

2015-04-01

Nowhere is the problem of understanding the complex linkages between organisms and their environments more apparent than in the science of plants. Today, efforts by scientists to predict and manage the biological consequences of shifting global and regional climates depend on understanding how organisms respond morphologically, physiologically, and behaviorally to changes in their environments. Investigating organismal "adaptability" (or "plasticity") is rarely straightforward, prompting controversy and discourse among and between ecologists and agricultural scientists. Concepts like agro-climatic adaptation, phenotypic plasticity, and genotype-environment interaction (GxE) are key to those debates, and their complex histories have imbued them with assumptions and meanings that are consequential but often opaque. This special section explores the diverse ways in which organismal adaptability has been conceptualized and investigated in the second half of the 20th century, and the multifarious political, economic, environmental, and intellectual contexts in which those conceptions have emerged and evolved. The papers in this section bring together perspectives from the histories of agriculture, population ecology, evolutionary theory, and plant physiology, cutting across Asian, North American, and British contexts. As a whole, this section highlights not only the diversity of meanings of "adaptability" and "plasticity," but also the complex linkages between those meanings, the scientific practices and technologies in which they are embedded, and the ends toward which those practices and technologies are employed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed Traffic Complexity Management by Preserving Trajectory Flexibility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Idris, Husni; Vivona, Robert A.; Garcia-Chico, Jose-Luis; Wing, David J.

2007-01-01

In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which groundbased service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. This paper presents preliminary research investigating a distributed trajectory-oriented approach to manage traffic complexity, based on preserving trajectory flexibility. The underlying hypotheses are that preserving trajectory flexibility autonomously by aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by collaboratively minimizing trajectory constraints without jeopardizing the intended air traffic management objectives. This paper presents an analytical framework in which flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and preliminary metrics are proposed that can be used to preserve trajectory flexibility. The hypothesized impacts are illustrated through analyzing a trajectory solution space in a simple scenario with only speed as a degree of freedom, and in constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving conflicts.

From data to decisions: Processing information, biases, and beliefs for improved management of natural resources and environments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glynn, Pierre D.; Voinov, Alexey A.; Shapiro, Carl D.; White, Paul A.

2017-01-01

Our different kinds of minds and types of thinking affect the ways we decide, take action, and cooperate (or not). Derived from these types of minds, innate biases, beliefs, heuristics, and values (BBHV) influence behaviors, often beneficially, when individuals or small groups face immediate, local, acute situations that they and their ancestors faced repeatedly in the past. BBHV, though, need to be recognized and possibly countered or used when facing new, complex issues or situations especially if they need to be managed for the benefit of a wider community, for the longer-term and the larger-scale. Taking BBHV into account, we explain and provide a cyclic science-infused adaptive framework for (1) gaining knowledge of complex systems and (2) improving their management. We explore how this process and framework could improve the governance of science and policy for different types of systems and issues, providing examples in the area of natural resources, hazards, and the environment. Lastly, we suggest that an “Open Traceable Accountable Policy” initiative that followed our suggested adaptive framework could beneficially complement recent Open Data/Model science initiatives.

A common framework for greenhouse gas assessment protocols in temperate agroforestry systems: Connecting via GRACEnet

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agroforestry systems offer many ecosystem benefits, but such systems have previously been marginalized in temperate environments due to overriding economic goals and perceived management complexity. In view of adaptation to a changing climate, agroforestry systems offer advantages that require quan...

Mutations in global regulators lead to metabolic selection during adaptation to complex environments

DOE PAGES

Saxer, Gerda; Krepps, Michael D.; Merkley, Eric D.; ...

2014-12-11

Adaptation to ecologically complex environments can provide insights into the evolutionary dynamics and functional constraints encountered by organisms during natural selection. Unlike adaptation to a single limiting resource, adaptation to a new environment with abundant and varied resources can be difficult to achieve by small incremental changes since many mutations are required to achieve even modest gains in fitness. Since changing complex environments are quite common in nature, we investigated how such an epistatic bottleneck can be avoided to allow rapid adaptation. We show that adaptive mutations arise repeatedly in independently evolved populations in the context of greatly increased geneticmore » and phenotypic diversity. We go on to show that weak selection requiring substantial metabolic reprogramming can be readily achieved by mutations in the global response regulator arcA and the stress response regulator rpoS. We identified 46 unique single-nucleotide variants of arcA and 18 mutations in rpoS, nine of which resulted in stop codons or large deletions, suggesting that a subtle modulation of ArcA function and knockouts of rpoS are largely responsible for the metabolic shifts leading to adaptation. These mutations allow a higher order “metabolic selection” that eliminates epistatic bottlenecks, which could occur when many changes would be required. Proteomic and carbohydrate analysis of adapting E. coli populations revealed an up-regulation of enzymes associated with the TCA cycle and amino acid metabolism and an increase in the secretion of putrescine. The overall effect of adaptation across populations is to redirect and efficiently utilize uptake and catabolism of abundant amino acids. Concomitantly, there is a pronounced spread of more ecologically limited strains that results from specialization through metabolic erosion. Remarkably, the global regulators arcA and rpoS can provide a “one-step” mechanism of adaptation to a novel environment, which highlights the importance of global resource management as a powerful strategy to adaptation.« less

Using systems thinking to support clinical system transformation.

PubMed

Best, Allan; Berland, Alex; Herbert, Carol; Bitz, Jennifer; van Dijk, Marlies W; Krause, Christina; Cochrane, Douglas; Noel, Kevin; Marsden, Julian; McKeown, Shari; Millar, John

2016-05-16

Purpose - The British Columbia Ministry of Health's Clinical Care Management initiative was used as a case study to better understand large-scale change (LSC) within BC's health system. Using a complex system framework, the purpose of this paper is to examine mechanisms that enable and constrain the implementation of clinical guidelines across various clinical settings. Design/methodology/approach - Researchers applied a general model of complex adaptive systems plus two specific conceptual frameworks (realist evaluation and system dynamics mapping) to define and study enablers and constraints. Focus group sessions and interviews with clinicians, executives, managers and board members were validated through an online survey. Findings - The functional themes for managing large-scale clinical change included: creating a context to prepare clinicians for health system transformation initiatives; promoting shared clinical leadership; strengthening knowledge management, strategic communications and opportunities for networking; and clearing pathways through the complexity of a multilevel, dynamic system. Research limitations/implications - The action research methodology was designed to guide continuing improvement of implementation. A sample of initiatives was selected; it was not intended to compare and contrast facilitators and barriers across all initiatives and regions. Similarly, evaluating the results or process of guideline implementation was outside the scope; the methods were designed to enable conversations at multiple levels - policy, management and practice - about how to improve implementation. The study is best seen as a case study of LSC, offering a possible model for replication by others and a tool to shape further dialogue. Practical implications - Recommended action-oriented strategies included engaging local champions; supporting local adaptation for implementation of clinical guidelines; strengthening local teams to guide implementation; reducing change fatigue; ensuring adequate resources; providing consistent communication especially for front-line care providers; and supporting local teams to demonstrate the clinical value of the guidelines to their colleagues. Originality/value - Bringing a complex systems perspective to clinical guideline implementation resulted in a clear understanding of the challenges involved in LSC.

Implications of Modeling Uncertainty for Water Quality Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shabman, L.

2002-05-01

The report, National Academy of Sciences report, "Assessing the TMDL Approach to Water Quality Management" endorsed the "watershed" and "ambient water quality focused" approach" to water quality management called for in the TMDL program. The committee felt that available data and models were adequate to move such a program forward, if the EPA and all stakeholders better understood the nature of the scientific enterprise and its application to the TMDL program. Specifically, the report called for a greater acknowledgement of model prediction uncertinaity in making and implementing TMDL plans. To assure that such uncertinaity was addressed in water quality decision making the committee called for a commitment to "adaptive implementation" of water quality management plans. The committee found that the number and complexity of the interactions of multiple stressors, combined with model prediction uncertinaity means that we need to avoid the temptation to make assurances that specific actions will result in attainment of particular water quality standards. Until the work on solving a water quality problem begins, analysts and decision makers cannot be sure what the correct solutions are, or even what water quality goals a community should be seeking. In complex systems we need to act in order to learn; adaptive implementation is a concurrent process of action and learning. Learning requires (1) continued monitoring of the waterbody to determine how it responds to the actions taken and (2) carefully designed experiments in the watershed. If we do not design learning into what we attempt we are not doing adaptive implementation. Therefore, there needs to be an increased commitment to monitoring and experiments in watersheds that will lead to learning. This presentation will 1) explain the logic for adaptive implementation; 2) discuss the ways that water quality modelers could characterize and explain model uncertinaity to decision makers; 3) speculate on the implications of the adaptive implementation for setting of water quality standards, for design of watershed monitoring programs and for the regulatory rules governing the TMDL program implementation.

Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

PubMed

Sulis, William H

2017-10-01

Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

Can conservation contracts co-exist with change? Payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptive decision-making and sustainability.

PubMed

Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Forest-management modelling

Treesearch

Mark J. Twery; Aaron R. Weiskittel

2013-01-01

Forests are complex and dynamic ecosystems comprising individual trees that can vary in both size and species. In comparison to other organisms, trees are relatively long lived (40-2000 years), quite plastic in terms of their morphology and ecological niche, and adapted to a wide variety of habitats, which can make predicting their behaviour exceedingly difficult....

Mutations in Global Regulators Lead to Metabolic Selection during Adaptation to Complex Environments

PubMed Central

Saxer, Gerda; Krepps, Michael D.; Merkley, Eric D.; Ansong, Charles; Deatherage Kaiser, Brooke L.; Valovska, Marie-Thérèse; Ristic, Nikola; Yeh, Ping T.; Prakash, Vittal P.; Leiser, Owen P.; Nakhleh, Luay; Gibbons, Henry S.; Kreuzer, Helen W.; Shamoo, Yousif

2014-01-01

Adaptation to ecologically complex environments can provide insights into the evolutionary dynamics and functional constraints encountered by organisms during natural selection. Adaptation to a new environment with abundant and varied resources can be difficult to achieve by small incremental changes if many mutations are required to achieve even modest gains in fitness. Since changing complex environments are quite common in nature, we investigated how such an epistatic bottleneck can be avoided to allow rapid adaptation. We show that adaptive mutations arise repeatedly in independently evolved populations in the context of greatly increased genetic and phenotypic diversity. We go on to show that weak selection requiring substantial metabolic reprogramming can be readily achieved by mutations in the global response regulator arcA and the stress response regulator rpoS. We identified 46 unique single-nucleotide variants of arcA and 18 mutations in rpoS, nine of which resulted in stop codons or large deletions, suggesting that subtle modulations of ArcA function and knockouts of rpoS are largely responsible for the metabolic shifts leading to adaptation. These mutations allow a higher order metabolic selection that eliminates epistatic bottlenecks, which could occur when many changes would be required. Proteomic and carbohydrate analysis of adapting E. coli populations revealed an up-regulation of enzymes associated with the TCA cycle and amino acid metabolism, and an increase in the secretion of putrescine. The overall effect of adaptation across populations is to redirect and efficiently utilize uptake and catabolism of abundant amino acids. Concomitantly, there is a pronounced spread of more ecologically limited strains that results from specialization through metabolic erosion. Remarkably, the global regulators arcA and rpoS can provide a “one-step” mechanism of adaptation to a novel environment, which highlights the importance of global resource management as a powerful strategy to adaptation. PMID:25501822

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

PubMed

Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

2014-01-01

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

Integrated soil fertility management in sub-Saharan Africa: unravelling local adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanlauwe, B.; Descheemaeker, K.; Giller, K. E.; Huising, J.; Merckx, R.; Nziguheba, G.; Wendt, J.; Zingore, S.

2014-12-01

Intensification of smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is necessary to address rural poverty and natural resource degradation. Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) is a means to enhance crop productivity while maximizing the agronomic efficiency (AE) of applied inputs, and can thus contribute to sustainable intensification. ISFM consists of a set of best practices, preferably used in combination, including the use of appropriate germplasm, the appropriate use of fertilizer and of organic resources, and good agronomic practices. The large variability in soil fertility conditions within smallholder farms is also recognised within ISFM, including soils with constraints beyond those addressed by fertilizer and organic inputs. The variable biophysical environments that characterize smallholder farming systems have profound effects on crop productivity and AE and targeted application of limited agro-inputs and management practices is necessary to enhance AE. Further, management decisions depend on the farmer's resource endowments and production objectives. In this paper we discuss the "local adaptation" component of ISFM and how this can be conceptualized within an ISFM framework, backstopped by analysis of AE at plot and farm level. At plot level, a set of four constraints to maximum AE is discussed in relation to "local adaptation": soil acidity, secondary nutrient and micro-nutrient (SMN) deficiencies, physical constraints, and drought stress. In each of these cases, examples are presented whereby amendments and/or practices addressing these have a significantly positive impact on fertilizer AE, including mechanistic principles underlying these effects. While the impact of such amendments and/or practices is easily understood for some practices (e.g., the application of SMNs where these are limiting), for others, more complex interactions with fertilizer AE can be identified (e.g., water harvesting under varying rainfall conditions). At farm scale, adjusting fertilizer applications within-farm soil fertility gradients has the potential to increase AE compared with blanket recommendations, in particular where fertility gradients are strong. In the final section, "local adaption" is discussed in relation to scale issues and decision support tools are evaluated as a means to create a better understanding of complexity at farm level and to communicate best scenarios for allocating agro-inputs and management practices within heterogeneous farming environments.

Integrated soil fertility management in sub-Saharan Africa: unravelling local adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanlauwe, B.; Descheemaeker, K.; Giller, K. E.; Huising, J.; Merckx, R.; Nziguheba, G.; Wendt, J.; Zingore, S.

2015-06-01

Intensification of smallholder agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is necessary to address rural poverty and natural resource degradation. Integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) is a means to enhance crop productivity while maximizing the agronomic efficiency (AE) of applied inputs, and can thus contribute to sustainable intensification. ISFM consists of a set of best practices, preferably used in combination, including the use of appropriate germplasm, the appropriate use of fertilizer and of organic resources, and good agronomic practices. The large variability in soil fertility conditions within smallholder farms is also recognized within ISFM, including soils with constraints beyond those addressed by fertilizer and organic inputs. The variable biophysical environments that characterize smallholder farming systems have profound effects on crop productivity and AE, and targeted application of agro-inputs and management practices is necessary to enhance AE. Further, management decisions depend on the farmer's resource endowments and production objectives. In this paper we discuss the "local adaptation" component of ISFM and how this can be conceptualized within an ISFM framework, backstopped by analysis of AE at plot and farm level. At plot level, a set of four constraints to maximum AE is discussed in relation to "local adaptation": soil acidity, secondary nutrient and micronutrient (SMN) deficiencies, physical constraints, and drought stress. In each of these cases, examples are presented whereby amendments and/or practices addressing these have a significantly positive impact on fertilizer AE, including mechanistic principles underlying these effects. While the impact of such amendments and/or practices is easily understood for some practices (e.g. the application of SMNs where these are limiting), for others, more complex processes influence AE (e.g. water harvesting under varying rainfall conditions). At farm scale, adjusting fertilizer applications to within-farm soil fertility gradients has the potential to increase AE compared with blanket recommendations, in particular where fertility gradients are strong. In the final section, "local adaption" is discussed in relation to scale issues and decision support tools are evaluated as a means to create a better understanding of complexity at farm level and to communicate appropriate scenarios for allocating agro-inputs and management practices within heterogeneous farming environments.

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach.

PubMed

Falloon, Pete; Betts, Richard

2010-11-01

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience. The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which "moderate" the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects. Crown Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Discussion of the enabling environments for decentralised water systems.

PubMed

Moglia, M; Alexander, K S; Sharma, A

2011-01-01

Decentralised water supply systems are becoming increasingly affordable and commonplace in Australia and have the potential to alleviate urban water shortages and reduce pollution into natural receiving marine and freshwater streams. Learning processes are necessary to support the efficient implementation of decentralised systems. These processes reveal the complex socio-technical and institutional factors to be considered when developing an enabling environment supporting decentralised water and wastewater servicing solutions. Critical to the technological transition towards established decentralised systems is the ability to create strategic and adaptive capacity to promote learning and dialogue. Learning processes require institutional mechanisms to ensure the lessons are incorporated into the formulation of policy and regulation, through constructive involvement of key government institutions. Engagement of stakeholders is essential to the enabling environment. Collaborative learning environments using systems analysis with communities (social learning) and adaptive management techniques are useful in refining and applying scientists' and managers' knowledge (knowledge management).

Reframing the challenges to integrated care: a complex-adaptive systems perspective.

PubMed

Tsasis, Peter; Evans, Jenna M; Owen, Susan

2012-01-01

Despite over two decades of international experience and research on health systems integration, integrated care has not developed widely. We hypothesized that part of the problem may lie in how we conceptualize the integration process and the complex systems within which integrated care is enacted. This study aims to contribute to discourse regarding the relevance and utility of a complex-adaptive systems (CAS) perspective on integrated care. In the Canadian province of Ontario, government mandated the development of fourteen Local Health Integration Networks in 2006. Against the backdrop of these efforts to integrate care, we collected focus group data from a diverse sample of healthcare professionals in the Greater Toronto Area using convenience and snowball sampling. A semi-structured interview guide was used to elicit participant views and experiences of health systems integration. We use a CAS framework to describe and analyze the data, and to assess the theoretical fit of a CAS perspective with the dominant themes in participant responses. Our findings indicate that integration is challenged by system complexity, weak ties and poor alignment among professionals and organizations, a lack of funding incentives to support collaborative work, and a bureaucratic environment based on a command and control approach to management. Using a CAS framework, we identified several characteristics of CAS in our data, including diverse, interdependent and semi-autonomous actors; embedded co-evolutionary systems; emergent behaviours and non-linearity; and self-organizing capacity. One possible explanation for the lack of systems change towards integration is that we have failed to treat the healthcare system as complex-adaptive. The data suggest that future integration initiatives must be anchored in a CAS perspective, and focus on building the system's capacity to self-organize. We conclude that integrating care requires policies and management practices that promote system awareness, relationship-building and information-sharing, and that recognize change as an evolving learning process rather than a series of programmatic steps.

Adaptive Management Methods to Protect the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David

2016-01-01

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, water quality changes, and expansion of invasive aquatic plants threatens ecosystems, impedes ecosystem restoration, and is economically, environmentally, and sociologically detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California and local governments to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and waterway managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes. The team provides a comprehensive understanding of agricultural and urban land use in the Delta and the major water sheds (San Joaquin/Sacramento) supplying the Delta and interaction with drought and climate impacts on the environment, water quality, and weed growth. The team recommends conservation and modified land-use practices and aids local Delta stakeholders in developing management strategies. New remote sensing tools have been developed to enhance ability to assess conditions, inform decision support tools, and monitor management practices. Science gaps in understanding how native and invasive plants respond to altered environmental conditions are being filled and provide critical biological response parameters for Delta-SWAT simulation modeling. Operational agencies such as the California Department of Boating and Waterways provide testing and act as initial adopter of decision support tools. Methods developed by the project can become routine land and water management tools in complex river delta systems.

Adaptive Management as an Effective Strategy: Interdisciplinary Perceptions for Natural Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dreiss, Lindsay M.; Hessenauer, Jan-Michael; Nathan, Lucas R.; O'Connor, Kelly M.; Liberati, Marjorie R.; Kloster, Danielle P.; Barclay, Janet R.; Vokoun, Jason C.; Morzillo, Anita T.

2017-02-01

Adaptive management is a well-established approach to managing natural resources, but there is little evidence demonstrating effectiveness of adaptive management over traditional management techniques. Peer-reviewed literature attempts to draw conclusions about adaptive management effectiveness using social perceptions, but those studies are largely restricted to employees of US federal organizations. To gain a more comprehensive insight into perceived adaptive management effectiveness, this study aimed to broaden the suite of disciplines, professional affiliations, and geographic backgrounds represented by both practitioners and scholars. A questionnaire contained a series of questions concerning factors that lead to or inhibit effective management, followed by another set of questions focused on adaptive management. Using a continuum representing strategies of both adaptive management and traditional management, respondents selected those strategies that they perceived as being effective. Overall, characteristics (i.e., strategies, stakeholders, and barriers) identified by respondents as contributing to effective management closely aligned with adaptive management. Responses were correlated to the type of adaptive management experience rather than an individual's discipline, occupational, or regional affiliation. In particular, perceptions of characteristics contributing to adaptive management effectiveness varied between respondents who identified as adaptive management scholars (i.e., no implementation experience) and adaptive management practitioners. Together, these results supported two concepts that make adaptive management effective: practitioners emphasized adaptive management's value as a long-term approach and scholars noted the importance of stakeholder involvement. Even so, more communication between practitioners and scholars regarding adaptive management effectiveness could promote interdisciplinary learning and problem solving for improved resources management.

Adaptive Management as an Effective Strategy: Interdisciplinary Perceptions for Natural Resources Management.

PubMed

Dreiss, Lindsay M; Hessenauer, Jan-Michael; Nathan, Lucas R; O'Connor, Kelly M; Liberati, Marjorie R; Kloster, Danielle P; Barclay, Janet R; Vokoun, Jason C; Morzillo, Anita T

2017-02-01

Adaptive management is a well-established approach to managing natural resources, but there is little evidence demonstrating effectiveness of adaptive management over traditional management techniques. Peer-reviewed literature attempts to draw conclusions about adaptive management effectiveness using social perceptions, but those studies are largely restricted to employees of US federal organizations. To gain a more comprehensive insight into perceived adaptive management effectiveness, this study aimed to broaden the suite of disciplines, professional affiliations, and geographic backgrounds represented by both practitioners and scholars. A questionnaire contained a series of questions concerning factors that lead to or inhibit effective management, followed by another set of questions focused on adaptive management. Using a continuum representing strategies of both adaptive management and traditional management, respondents selected those strategies that they perceived as being effective. Overall, characteristics (i.e., strategies, stakeholders, and barriers) identified by respondents as contributing to effective management closely aligned with adaptive management. Responses were correlated to the type of adaptive management experience rather than an individual's discipline, occupational, or regional affiliation. In particular, perceptions of characteristics contributing to adaptive management effectiveness varied between respondents who identified as adaptive management scholars (i.e., no implementation experience) and adaptive management practitioners. Together, these results supported two concepts that make adaptive management effective: practitioners emphasized adaptive management's value as a long-term approach and scholars noted the importance of stakeholder involvement. Even so, more communication between practitioners and scholars regarding adaptive management effectiveness could promote interdisciplinary learning and problem solving for improved resources management.

Methods and principles for determining task dependent interface content

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shalin, Valerie L.; Geddes, Norman D.; Mikesell, Brian G.

1992-01-01

Computer generated information displays provide a promising technology for offsetting the increasing complexity of the National Airspace System. To realize this promise, however, we must extend and adapt the domain-dependent knowledge that informally guides the design of traditional dedicated displays. In our view, the successful exploitation of computer generated displays revolves around the idea of information management, that is, the identification, organization, and presentation of relevant and timely information in a complex task environment. The program of research that is described leads to methods and principles for information management in the domain of commercial aviation. The multi-year objective of the proposed program of research is to develop methods and principles for determining task dependent interface content.

Efficient GIS-based model-driven method for flood risk management and its application in central China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Zhou, J.; Song, L.; Zou, Q.; Guo, J.; Wang, Y.

2014-02-01

In recent years, an important development in flood management has been the focal shift from flood protection towards flood risk management. This change greatly promoted the progress of flood control research in a multidisciplinary way. Moreover, given the growing complexity and uncertainty in many decision situations of flood risk management, traditional methods, e.g., tight-coupling integration of one or more quantitative models, are not enough to provide decision support for managers. Within this context, this paper presents a beneficial methodological framework to enhance the effectiveness of decision support systems, through the dynamic adaptation of support regarding the needs of the decision-maker. In addition, we illustrate a loose-coupling technical prototype for integrating heterogeneous elements, such as multi-source data, multidisciplinary models, GIS tools and existing systems. The main innovation is the application of model-driven concepts, which put the system in a state of continuous iterative optimization. We define the new system as a model-driven decision support system (MDSS ). Two characteristics that differentiate the MDSS are as follows: (1) it is made accessible to non-technical specialists; and (2) it has a higher level of adaptability and compatibility. Furthermore, the MDSS was employed to manage the flood risk in the Jingjiang flood diversion area, located in central China near the Yangtze River. Compared with traditional solutions, we believe that this model-driven method is efficient, adaptable and flexible, and thus has bright prospects of application for comprehensive flood risk management.

Aquatic Plant Control Research Program. Large-Scale Operations Management Test of Use of the White Amur for Control of Problem Aquatic Plants. The Herpetofauna of Lake Conway: Species Accounts.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-07-01

complex suite of physiological and 39 respiratory adaptations (Ultch 1976) enable this species to occupy both open water and littoral zone environments...be an adaptation to avoid fish predation on juveniles in open water and may explain the spring peak in funnel trap captures near shore (Fig. 10). 79...population of C. picta probably is not established on Lake Conway. The one collected individual 103 defecated gastropod (Viviparous sp.) shells and

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

Strategic management of livestock to improve biodiversity conservation in African savannahs: A conceptual basis for wildlife-livestock coexistence

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

African savannas are complex socio-ecological systems with diverse wild and domestic herbivore assemblages, which utilize functional heterogeneity of habitats to adapt to intra- and inter-annual variation in forage quantity and quality, predation and disease risks. As African savannas become increas...

Leadership and Organization in Education: Time for a Re-Orientation?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glatter, Ron

2006-01-01

The article raises issues about the current direction of the field of educational leadership and management. It argues that we should consider a re-orientation of the field in order to renew its concern with ideas connected with organization, which include viewing organizations as complex adaptive systems and taking an institutional perspective.…

Modelling the urban water cycle as an integrated part of the city: a review.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

In contrast to common perceptions, the urban water infrastructure system is a complex and dynamic system that is constantly evolving and adapting to changes in the urban environment, to sustain existing services and provide additional ones. Instead of simplifying urban water infrastructure to a static system that is decoupled from its urban context, new management strategies use the complexity of the system to their advantage by integrating centralised with decentralised solutions and explicitly embedding water systems into their urban form. However, to understand and test possible adaptation strategies, urban water modelling tools are required to support exploration of their effectiveness as the human-technology-environment system coevolves under different future scenarios. The urban water modelling community has taken first steps to developing these new modelling tools. This paper critically reviews the historical development of urban water modelling tools and provides a summary of the current state of integrated modelling approaches. It reflects on the challenges that arise through the current practice of coupling urban water management tools with urban development models and discusses a potential pathway towards a new generation of modelling tools.

Managing total corporate electricity/energy market risks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henney, A.; Keers, G.

1998-10-01

The banking industry has developed a tool kit of very useful value at risk techniques for hedging risk, but these techniques must be adapted to the special complexities of the electricity market. This paper starts with a short history of the use of value-at-risk (VAR) techniques in banking risk management and then examines the specific and, in many instances, complex risk management challenges faced by electric companies from the behavior of prices in electricity markets and from the character of generation and electric retailing risks. The third section describes the main methods for making VAR calculations along with an analysismore » of their suitability for analyzing the risks of electricity portfolios and the case for using profit at risk and downside risk as measures of risk. The final section draws the threads together and explains how to look at managing total corporate electricity market risk, which is a big step toward managing total corporate energy market risk.« less

Stakeholder Participation in Freshwater Monitoring and Evaluation Programs: Applying Thresholds of Potential Concern within Environmental Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Conallin, John; McLoughlin, Craig A.; Campbell, Josh; Knight, Roger; Bright, Troy; Fisher, Ian

2018-03-01

The complex nature of freshwater systems provides challenges for incorporating evidence-based techniques into management. This paper investigates the potential of participatory evidence-based techniques to involve local stakeholders and make decisions based on different "knowledge" sources within adaptive management programs. It focuses on the application of thresholds of potential concern (TPC) within strategic adaptive management (SAM) for facilitating inclusive decision-making. The study is based on the case of the Edward-Wakool (E-W) "Fish and Flows" SAM project in the Murray-Darling River Basin, Australia. We demonstrate the application of TPCs for improving collaborative decision-making within the E-W, associated with environmental watering requirements, and other natural resource management programs such as fish stocking. The development of TPCs in the E-W fish and flows SAM project helped improve stakeholder involvement and understanding of the system, and also the effectiveness of the implemented management interventions. TPCs ultimately helped inform environmental flow management activities. The TPC process complemented monitoring that was already occurring in the system and provided a mechanism for linking formal and informal knowledge to form explicit and measurable endpoints from objectives. The TPC process faced challenges due to the perceived reduction in scientific rigor within initial TPC development and use. However, TPCs must remain tangible to managers and other stakeholders, in order to aid in the implementation of adaptive management. Once accepted by stakeholders, over time TPCs should be reviewed and refined in order to increase their scientific rigor, as new information is generated.

Adaptation of the World Health Organization's Selected Practice Recommendations for Contraceptive Use for the United States.

PubMed

Curtis, Kathryn M; Tepper, Naomi K; Jamieson, Denise J; Marchbanks, Polly A

2013-05-01

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently adapted global guidance on contraceptive use from the World Health Organization (WHO) to create the US Selected Practice Recommendations for Contraceptive Use (US SPR). The WHO guidance includes evidence-based recommendations on common, yet sometimes complex, contraceptive management questions. We determined the need and scope for the adaptation, conducted 30 systematic reviews of the scientific evidence and convened a meeting of health care professionals to discuss translation of the evidence into recommendations. The US SPR provides recommendations on contraceptive management issues such as how to initiate contraceptive methods, what regular follow-up is needed, and how to address problems, including missed pills and side effects such as unscheduled bleeding. The US SPR is intended to serve as a source of clinical guidance for providers in assisting women and men to initiate and successfully use contraception to prevent unintended pregnancy. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

2016-05-01

Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

Evaluating the impact of investments in information technology on structural inertia in health organizations.

PubMed

Bewley, Lee W

2010-01-01

Structural inertia is the overall capacity of an organization to adapt within a market environment. This paper reviews the impact of healthcare investments in information management/information technology (IM/IT) on the strategic management concept of structural inertia. Research indicates that healthcare executives should consider the relative state of structural inertia for their firms and match them with potential IM/IT solutions. Additionally, organizations should favorably consider IM/IT solutions that are comparatively less complex.

Participatory approaches to understanding practices of flood management across borders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracken, L. J.; Forrester, J.; Oughton, E. A.; Cinderby, S.; Donaldson, A.; Anness, L.; Passmore, D.

2012-04-01

The aim of this paper is to outline and present initial results from a study designed to identify principles of and practices for adaptive co-management strategies for resilience to flooding in borderlands using participatory methods. Borderlands are the complex and sometimes undefined spaces existing at the interface of different territories and draws attention towards messy connections and disconnections (Strathern 2004; Sassen 2006). For this project the borderlands concerned are those between professional and lay knowledge, between responsible agencies, and between one nation and another. Research was focused on the River Tweed catchment, located on the Scottish-English border. This catchment is subject to complex environmental designations and rural development regimes that make integrated management of the whole catchment difficult. A multi-method approach was developed using semi-structured interviews, Q methodology and participatory GIS in order to capture wide ranging practices for managing flooding, the judgements behind these practices and to 'scale up' participation in the study. Professionals and local experts were involved in the research. The methodology generated a useful set of options for flood management, with research outputs easily understood by key management organisations and the wider public alike. There was a wide endorsement of alternative flood management solutions from both managers and local experts. The role of location was particularly important for ensuring communication and data sharing between flood managers from different organisations and more wide ranging stakeholders. There were complex issues around scale; both the mismatch between communities and evidence of flooding and the mismatch between governance and scale of intervention for natural flood management. The multi-method approach was essential in capturing practice and the complexities around governance of flooding. The involvement of key flood management organisations was integral to making the research of relevance to professionals.

Adaptive Management of Return Flows: Lessons from a Case Study in Environmental Water Delivery to a Floodplain River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfenden, Benjamin J.; Wassens, Skye M.; Jenkins, Kim M.; Baldwin, Darren S.; Kobayashi, Tsuyoshi; Maguire, James

2018-03-01

For many floodplain rivers, reinstating wetland connectivity is necessary for ecosystems to recover from decades of regulation. Environmental return flows (the managed delivery of wetland water to an adjacent river) can be used strategically to facilitate natural ecosystem connectivity, enabling the transfer of nutrients, energy, and biota from wetland habitats to the river. Using an informal adaptive management framework, we delivered return flows from a forested wetland complex into a large lowland river in south-eastern Australia. We hypothesized that return flows would (a) increase river nutrient concentrations; (b) reduce wetland nutrient concentrations; (c) increase rates of ecosystem metabolism through the addition of potentially limiting nutrients, causing related increases in the concentration of water column chlorophyll-a; and (d) increase the density and species richness of microinvertebrates in riverine benthic habitats. Our monitoring results demonstrated a small increase in the concentrations of several key nutrients but no evidence for significant ecological responses was found. Although return flows can be delivered from forested floodplain areas without risking hypoxic blackwater events, returning nutrient and carbon-rich water to increase riverine productivity is limited by the achievable scale of return flows. Nevertheless, using return flows to flush carbon from floodplains may be a useful management tool to reduce carbon loads, preparing floodplains for subsequent releases (e.g., mitigating the risk of hypoxic blackwater events). In this example, adaptive management benefited from a semi-formal collaboration between science and management that allowed for prompt decision-making.

Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

2017-01-01

The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

PubMed

Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

2017-01-01

The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

Towards adaptive and integrated management paradigms to meet the challenges of water governance.

PubMed

Halbe, J; Pahl-Wostl, C; Sendzimir, J; Adamowski, J

2013-01-01

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) aims at finding practical and sustainable solutions to water resource issues. Research and practice have shown that innovative methods and tools are not sufficient to implement IWRM - the concept needs to also be integrated in prevailing management paradigms and institutions. Water governance science addresses this human dimension by focusing on the analysis of regulatory processes that influence the behavior of actors in water management systems. This paper proposes a new methodology for the integrated analysis of water resources management and governance systems in order to elicit and analyze case-specific management paradigms. It builds on the Management and Transition Framework (MTF) that allows for the examination of structures and processes underlying water management and governance. The new methodology presented in this paper combines participatory modeling and analysis of the governance system by using the MTF to investigate case-specific management paradigms. The linking of participatory modeling and research on complex management and governance systems allows for the transfer of knowledge between scientific, policy, engineering and local communities. In this way, the proposed methodology facilitates assessment and implementation of transformation processes towards IWRM that require also the adoption of adaptive management principles. A case study on flood management in the Tisza River Basin in Hungary is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed methodology.

Participatory Scenario Planning for the Cienega Watershed: Embracing Uncertainty in Public Lands Management in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hartmann, H.; Morino, K.; Bodner, G.; Markstein, A.; McFarlin, S.

2013-12-01

Land managers and communities struggle to sustain natural landscapes and the benefits they provide--especially in an era of rapid and unpredictable changes being driven by shifts in climate and other drivers that are largely outside the control of local managers and residents. The Cienega Watershed Partnership (CWP) is a long-standing multi-agency partnership involved in managing lands and resources over about 700,000 acres in southeast Arizona, surrounding the Bureau of Land Management's Las Cienegas National Conservation Area. The region forms a vital wildlife corridor connecting the diverse ecosystems of the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and grasslands with the Sierra Madrean and Rocky Mountain forests and woodlands. The CWP has long-standing forums and relationships for considering complex issues and novel approaches for management, including practical implementation of adaptive management, development of monitoring programs and protocols, and the use of nested objectives to adjust management targets. However, current plans have objectives and strategies based on what is known or likely to become known about natural and socio-cultural systems; they do not incorporate uncertainties related to rapid changes in climate or have well developed feedback mechanisms for routinely reconsidering climate information. Since 2011, more than 50 individuals from over 20 federal and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and private landowners have participated in scenario planning for the Cienega Watershed. Scenario planning is an important tool for (1) managing risks in the face of high volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity; (2) integrating quantitative climate projections, trend and impact assessments, and local expertise to develop qualitative scenario narratives that can inform decisions even by simply provoking insights; and (3) engaging jurisdictions having different missions, objectives, and planning processes. Participants are helping to extend and refine participatory scenario planning methods from the development of regional qualitative narratives to (1) development of scenario narratives that are relevant at the local management level, (2) creation and evaluation of portfolios of management options that can accommodate changes in management objectives, connect to formal agency planning processes, and that can be adjusted as the future evolves, and (3) explicit identification of the data and information that link qualitative narratives to quantitative scenario and adaptation assessments, which can be used to drive the timing and implementation of activities within the adaptation portfolios, and to prioritize monitoring and research activities to resolve near-term uncertainties. Project tasks are structured around four resource teams that focus on their specific management concerns (Montane, Riparian, Upland and Cultural), but that come together periodically to consider interaction and conflict among their scenarios or prospective adaptation. Participants are finding that embracing uncertainty enables them to approach climate change with a sense of empowerment rather than a sense of reacting to crises, and they appreciate the methods and opportunities for thinking differently and crossing boundaries that the scenario planning exercises provide.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-07-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-01-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Evolution of complex adaptations in molecular systems

PubMed Central

Pál, Csaba; Papp, Balázs

2017-01-01

A central challenge in evolutionary biology concerns the mechanisms by which complex adaptations arise. Such adaptations depend on the fixation of multiple, highly specific mutations, where intermediate stages of evolution seemingly provide little or no benefit. It is generally assumed that the establishment of complex adaptations is very slow in nature, as evolution of such traits demands special population genetic or environmental circumstances. However, blueprints of complex adaptations in molecular systems are pervasive, indicating that they can readily evolve. We discuss the prospects and limitations of non-adaptive scenarios, which assume multiple neutral or deleterious steps in the evolution of complex adaptations. Next, we examine how complex adaptations can evolve by natural selection in changing environment. Finally, we argue that molecular ’springboards’, such as phenotypic heterogeneity and promiscuous interactions facilitate this process by providing access to new adaptive paths. PMID:28782044

An extensible and lightweight architecture for adaptive server applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gorton, Ian; Liu, Yan; Trivedi, Nihar

2008-07-10

Server applications augmented with behavioral adaptation logic can react to environmental changes, creating self-managing server applications with improved quality of service at runtime. However, developing adaptive server applications is challenging due to the complexity of the underlying server technologies and highly dynamic application environments. This paper presents an architecture framework, the Adaptive Server Framework (ASF), to facilitate the development of adaptive behavior for legacy server applications. ASF provides a clear separation between the implementation of adaptive behavior and the business logic of the server application. This means a server application can be extended with programmable adaptive features through the definitionmore » and implementation of control components defined in ASF. Furthermore, ASF is a lightweight architecture in that it incurs low CPU overhead and memory usage. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ASF through a case study, in which a server application dynamically determines the resolution and quality to scale an image based on the load of the server and network connection speed. The experimental evaluation demonstrates the erformance gains possible by adaptive behavior and the low overhead introduced by ASF.« less

Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

Treesearch

Steven Railsback; Bret Harvey

2011-01-01

Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers’ understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics...

Integrated Water Resource Management: A Platform for Higher Education Institutions to Meet Complex Sustainability Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Neil; Larsen, Rasmus Kløcker

2013-01-01

Higher education institutions in Sweden are increasingly exposed to international market conditions and rising competition from a more mobile student body. This increases the need for universities to adapt to their social and economic environment and to their clients, including the political trends and financial opportunities in Sweden and EU, if…

Strategic Leader Development for a 21st Century Army

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-04-30

Fall of Strategic Planning. New York, NY: The Free Press, 1994. Northouse , Peter G. Leadership : Theory and Practice. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage...TERMS Strategic Leadership ; Strategic Thinking; Contemporary Operational Environment; Adaptability; Self Awareness; Complexity; Officer Education...managing today’s fluid operational environment. The concept of strategic leadership , therefore, must be examined closely in Army doctrine. Social

75 FR 63502 - Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Sonny Bono Salton Sea National Wildlife...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-10-15

...- toed lizard (Uma inornata), as well as other desert-dwelling species adapted to living in the sand dune...., conversion of habitat types, dust management, degraded water quality); predation in seabird nesting areas... sand on adjacent properties; public use; and impacts to Refuge resources as a result of illegal...

Integrating water and agricultural management: collaborative governance for a complex policy problem.

PubMed

Fish, Rob D; Ioris, Antonio A R; Watson, Nigel M

2010-11-01

This paper examines governance requirements for integrating water and agricultural management (IWAM). The institutional arrangements for the agriculture and water sectors are complex and multi-dimensional, and integration cannot therefore be achieved through a simplistic 'additive' policy process. Effective integration requires the development of a new collaborative approach to governance that is designed to cope with scale dependencies and interactions, uncertainty and contested knowledge, and interdependency among diverse and unequal interests. When combined with interdisciplinary research, collaborative governance provides a viable normative model because of its emphasis on reciprocity, relationships, learning and creativity. Ultimately, such an approach could lead to the sorts of system adaptations and transformations that are required for IWAM. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Information-theoretic metamodel of organizational evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sepulveda, Alfredo

2011-12-01

Social organizations are abstractly modeled by holarchies---self-similar connected networks---and intelligent complex adaptive multiagent systems---large networks of autonomous reasoning agents interacting via scaled processes. However, little is known of how information shapes evolution in such organizations, a gap that can lead to misleading analytics. The research problem addressed in this study was the ineffective manner in which classical model-predict-control methods used in business analytics attempt to define organization evolution. The purpose of the study was to construct an effective metamodel for organization evolution based on a proposed complex adaptive structure---the info-holarchy. Theoretical foundations of this study were holarchies, complex adaptive systems, evolutionary theory, and quantum mechanics, among other recently developed physical and information theories. Research questions addressed how information evolution patterns gleamed from the study's inductive metamodel more aptly explained volatility in organization. In this study, a hybrid grounded theory based on abstract inductive extensions of information theories was utilized as the research methodology. An overarching heuristic metamodel was framed from the theoretical analysis of the properties of these extension theories and applied to business, neural, and computational entities. This metamodel resulted in the synthesis of a metaphor for, and generalization of organization evolution, serving as the recommended and appropriate analytical tool to view business dynamics for future applications. This study may manifest positive social change through a fundamental understanding of complexity in business from general information theories, resulting in more effective management.

Psychometric analysis of the leadership environment scale (LENS): Outcome from the Oregon research initiative on the organisation of nursing (ORION).

PubMed

Ross, Amy M; Ilic, Kelley; Kiyoshi-Teo, Hiroko; Lee, Christopher S

2017-12-26

The purpose of this study was to establish the psychometric properties of the new 16-item leadership environment scale. The leadership environment scale was based on complexity science concepts relevant to complex adaptive health care systems. A workforce survey of direct-care nurses was conducted (n = 1,443) in Oregon. Confirmatory factor analysis, exploratory factor analysis, concordant validity test and reliability tests were conducted to establish the structure and internal consistency of the leadership environment scale. Confirmatory factor analysis indices approached acceptable thresholds of fit with a single factor solution. Exploratory factor analysis showed improved fit with a two-factor model solution; the factors were labelled 'influencing relationships' and 'interdependent system supports'. Moderate to strong convergent validity was observed between the leadership environment scale/subscales and both the nursing workforce index and the safety organising scale. Reliability of the leadership environment scale and subscales was strong, with all alphas ≥.85. The leadership environment scale is structurally sound and reliable. Nursing management can employ adaptive complexity leadership attributes, measure their influence on the leadership environment, subsequently modify system supports and relationships and improve the quality of health care systems. The leadership environment scale is an innovative fit to complex adaptive systems and how nurses act as leaders within these systems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Disaster preparedness in a complex urban system: the case of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.

PubMed

Carpenter, Samuel; Grünewald, François

2016-07-01

The city is a growing centre of humanitarian concern. Yet, aid agencies, governments and donors are only beginning to comprehend the scale and, importantly, the complexity of the humanitarian challenge in urban areas. Using the case study of the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, this paper examines the analytical utility of recent research on complex urban systems in strengthening scholarly understanding of urban disaster risk management, and outlines its operational relevance to disaster preparedness. Drawing on a literature review and 26 interviews with actors from across the Government of Nepal, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, non-governmental organisations, United Nations agencies, and at-risk communities, the study argues that complexity can be seen as a defining feature of urban systems and the risks that confront them. To manage risk in these systems effectively, preparedness efforts must be based on adaptive and agile approaches, incorporating the use of network analysis, partnerships, and new technologies. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Complexity theory and the "puzzling" competencies: Systems-based Practice And Practice-based Learning explored.

PubMed

Gonnering, Russell S

2010-01-01

Of all the clinical competencies, the least understood are Systems-Based Practice and Practice-Based Learning and Improvement. With a shift to competency-based education and evaluation across the spectrum of surgical education and practice, a clear understanding of the power and utility of each competency is paramount. Health care operates as a complex adaptive system, with dynamics foreign to many health care professionals and educators. The adaptation and evolution of such a system is related directly to both the individual and the organizational learning of the agents within the system and knowledge management strategies. Far from being "difficult," Systems-Based Practice and Practice-Based Learning form the heart of quality improvement initiatives and future productivity advances in health care. Copyright 2010 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conceptual Modeling for Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management in the Barycz Valley, Lower Silesia, Poland

PubMed Central

Magnuszewski, Piotr; Sendzimir, Jan; Kronenberg, Jakub

2005-01-01

The complexity of interactions in socio-ecological systems makes it very difficult to plan and implement policies successfully. Traditional environmental management and assessment techniques produce unsatisfactory results because they often ignore facets of system structure that underlie complexity: delays, feedbacks, and non-linearities. Assuming that causes are linked in a linear chain, they concentrate on technological developments (“hard path”) as the only solutions to environmental problems. Adaptive Management is recognized as a promising alternative approach directly addressing links between social and ecological systems and involving stakeholders in the analysis and decision process. This “soft path” requires special tools to facilitate collaboration between “experts” and stakeholders in analyzing complex situations and prioritizing policies and actions. We have applied conceptual modeling to increase communication, understanding and commitment in the project of seven NGOs “Sustainable Regional Development in the Odra Catchment”. The main goal was to help our NGO partners to facilitate their efforts related to developing sustainable policies and practices to respond to large-scale challenges (EU accession, global changes in climate and economy) to their natural, economic and socio-cultural heritages. Among the variety of sustainability issues explored by these NGOs, two (extensive agricultural practices and “green” local products) were examined by using Adaptive Management (AM) as a framework that would link analysis, discussion, research, actions and monitoring. Within the AM framework the project coordinators used tools of systems analysis (Mental Model Mapping) to facilitate discussions in which NGO professionals and local stakeholders could graphically diagram and study their understanding of what factors interacted and how they affect the region’s sustainability. These discussions produced larger-scale Regional Sustainability Models as well as more detailed sub-models of particular factors, processes, and feedback loops that appear critical to a sustainable future. The Regional Sustainability Model was used to identify a subset of key interacting factors (variables). For each variable, several sustainability indicators were suggested. The growing understanding and acceptance of the AM framework and systems analysis created a momentum both locally and within the region, which makes continued successful use of these indicators quite likely. In contrast to expert-driven projects that inject outside knowledge into a local context, this project established a broad basis for stakeholder-driven discussion that is articulated into goals, objectives, conceptual models, and indicators. The ability to learn and adapt in the AM framework increases the capacity to innovate and find policies and practices that enhance resilience and sustainability in a world in transition. PMID:16705818

Identifying legal, ecological and governance obstacles and opportunities for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cosens, Barbara; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig R.; Benson, Melinda H.

2014-01-01

Current governance of regional scale water management systems in the United States has not placed them on a path toward sustainability, as conflict and gridlock characterize the social arena and ecosystem services continue to erode. Changing climate may continue this trajectory, but it also provides a catalyst for renewal of ecosystems and a window of opportunity for change in institutions. Resilience provides a bridging concept that predicts that change in ecological and social systems is often dramatic, abrupt, and surprising. Adapting to the uncertainty of climate driven change must be done in a manner perceived as legitimate by the participants in a democratic society. Adaptation must begin with the current hierarchical and fragmented social-ecological system as a baseline from which new approaches must be applied. Achieving a level of integration between ecological concepts and governance requires a dialogue across multiple disciplines, including ecologists with expertise in ecological resilience, hydrologists and climate experts, with social scientists and legal scholars. Criteria and models that link ecological dynamics with policies in complex, multi-jurisdictional water basins with adaptive management and governance frameworks may move these social-ecological systems toward greater sustainability.

Hospitals as complex adaptive systems: A case study of factors influencing priority setting practices at the hospital level in Kenya.

PubMed

Barasa, Edwine W; Molyneux, Sassy; English, Mike; Cleary, Susan

2017-02-01

There is a dearth of literature on priority setting and resource allocation (PSRA) practices in hospitals, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Using a case study approach, we examined PSRA practices in 2 public hospitals in coastal Kenya. We collected data through a combination of in-depth interviews of national level policy makers, hospital managers, and frontline practitioners in the case study hospitals (n = 72), review of documents such as hospital plans and budgets, minutes of meetings and accounting records, and non-participant observations of PSRA practices in case study hospitals over a period of 7 months. In this paper, we apply complex adaptive system (CAS) theory to examine the factors that influence PSRA practices. We found that PSRA practices in the case hospitals were influenced by, 1) inadequate financing level and poorly designed financing arrangements, 2) limited hospital autonomy and decision space, and 3) inadequate management and leadership capacity in the hospital. The case study hospitals exhibited properties of complex adaptive systems (CASs) that exist in a dynamic state with multiple interacting agents. Weaknesses in system 'hardware' (resource scarcity) and 'software' (including PSRA guidelines that reduced hospitals decision space, and poor leadership skills) led to the emergence of undesired properties. The capacity of hospitals to set priorities should be improved across these interacting aspects of the hospital organizational system. Interventions should however recognize that hospitals are CAS. Rather than rectifying isolated aspects of the system, they should endeavor to create conditions for productive emergence. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under changing conditions. The plan commits to short term actions, and identifies signpost indicators and trigger values to assess if next actions of the identified policy pathways need to be implemented or if reassessment of the plan is needed. For example, river discharges could be measured to monitor changes in low discharges as a result of climate change, and assess whether policy options such as diverting more water the main fresh water lake (IJsselmeer) need to be implemented sooner or later or not at all. The adaptive plan of the Delta Programme will be presented in 2014. First lessons of this part of the Delta Programme can already be drawn: Both the complex and meta-model had its own purpose in each phase. The meta-model was particularly useful for identifying promising policy options and for consultation of stakeholders due to the instant response. The complex model had much more opportunities to assess impacts of regional policy actions, and was supported by regional stakeholders that recognized their areas better in this model. Different sector impact assessment modules are also included in the workflow of the complex model. However, the complex model has a long runtime (i.e. three days for 1 year simulation or more than 100 days for 35 year time series simulation), which makes it less suitable to support the dynamic policy process on instant demand and interactively.

Idaho National Laboratory Test Area North: Application of Endpoints to Guide Adaptive Remediation at a Complex Site: INL Test Area North: Application of Endpoints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lee, M. Hope; Truex, Mike; Freshley, Mark

Complex sites are defined as those with difficult subsurface access, deep and/or thick zones of contamination, large areal extent, subsurface heterogeneities that limit the effectiveness of remediation, or where long-term remedies are needed to address contamination (e.g., because of long-term sources or large extent). The Test Area North at the Idaho National Laboratory, developed for nuclear fuel operations and heavy metal manufacturing, is used as a case study. Liquid wastes and sludge from experimental facilities were disposed in an injection well, which contaminated the subsurface aquifer located deep within fractured basalt. The wastes included organic, inorganic, and low-level radioactive constituents,more » with the focus of this case study on trichloroethylene. The site is used as an example of a systems-based framework that provides a structured approach to regulatory processes established for remediation under existing regulations. The framework is intended to facilitate remedy decisions and implementation at complex sites where restoration may be uncertain, require long timeframes, or involve use of adaptive management approaches. The framework facilitates site, regulator, and stakeholder interactions during the remedial planning and implementation process by using a conceptual model description as a technical foundation for decisions, identifying endpoints, which are interim remediation targets or intermediate decision points on the path to an ultimate end, and maintaining protectiveness during the remediation process. At the Test Area North, using a structured approach to implementing concepts in the endpoint framework, a three-component remedy is largely functioning as intended and is projected to meet remedial action objectives by 2095 as required. The remedy approach is being adjusted as new data become available. The framework provides a structured process for evaluating and adjusting the remediation approach, allowing site owners, regulators, and stakeholders to manage contamination at complex sites where adaptive remedies are needed.« less

Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

2018-01-01

The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

Envisioning the future of wildlife in a changing climate: Collaborative learning for adaptation planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeDee, Olivia E.; Karasov, W.H.; Martin, Karl J.; Meyer, Michael W.; Ribic, Christine; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2011-01-01

Natural resource managers are tasked with assessing the impacts of climate change on conservation targets and developing adaptation strategies to meet agency goals. The complex, transboundary nature of climate change demands the collaboration of scientists, managers, and stakeholders in this effort. To share, integrate, and apply knowledge from these diverse perspectives, we must engage in social learning. In 2009, we initiated a process to engage university researchers and agency scientists and managers in collaborative learning to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial fauna in the state of Wisconsin, USA. We constructed conceptual Bayesian networks to depict the influence of climate change, key biotic and abiotic factors, and existing stressors on the distribution and abundance of 3 species: greater prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus cupido), wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), and Karner blue butterfly (Plebejus melissa samuelis). For each species, we completed a 2-stage expert review that elicited dialogue on information gaps, management opportunities, and research priorities. From our experience, collaborative network modeling proved to be a powerful tool to develop a common vision of the potential impacts of climate change on conservation targets.

Adaptation of the animal welfare assessment grid (AWAG) for monitoring animal welfare in zoological collections.

PubMed

Justice, W S M; O'Brien, M F; Szyszka, O; Shotton, J; Gilmour, J E M; Riordan, P; Wolfensohn, S

2017-08-05

Animal welfare monitoring is an essential part of zoo management and a legal requirement in many countries. Historically, a variety of welfare audits have been proposed to assist zoo managers. Unfortunately, there are a number of issues with these assessments, including lack of species information, validated tests and the overall complexity of these audits which make them difficult to implement in practice. The animal welfare assessment grid (AWAG) has previously been proposed as an animal welfare monitoring tool for animals used in research programmes. This computer-based system was successfully adapted for use in a zoo setting with two taxonomic groups: primates and birds. This tool is simple to use and provides continuous monitoring based on cumulative lifetime assessment. It is suggested as an alternative, practical method for welfare monitoring in zoos. British Veterinary Association.

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species.

PubMed

Reist, James D; Wrona, Frederick J; Prowse, Terry D; Dempson, J Brian; Power, Michael; Köck, Günter; Carmichael, Theresa J; Sawatzky, Chantelle D; Lehtonen, Hannu; Tallman, Ross F

2006-11-01

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.

Case management: developing practice through action research.

PubMed

Smith, Annetta; Mackay, Seonaid; McCulloch, Kathleen

2013-09-01

This article is a report of an action research study carried out with community nurses to help develop case management within their practice. Using action research principles, nurses reviewed and analysed their current practice and developed recommendations for further embedding case management as a means of supporting patients with complex care needs in their own homes. Findings indicate that a number of factors can influence the community nurse's ability to implement case management. These factors include approaches to case finding, availability of resources and interprofessional working. Important considerations for nurses were the influence of the context of care, the geographical location and the health needs of the local patient population, which meant that case management may need to be adapted to meet local circumstances.

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B K; Szaro, Robert C.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces tensions among stakeholders. Adaptive management as defined here involves ongoing, real-time learning and knowledge creation, both in a substantive sense and in terms of the adaptive process itself. It is described in what follows in a series of 9 steps, as summarized in section 4.1, involving stakeholder involvement, management objectives, management alternatives, predictive models, monitoring plans, decision making, monitoring responses to management, assessment, and adjustment to management actions. An adaptive approach actively engages stakeholders in all phases of a project over its timeframe, facilitating mutual learning and reinforcing the commitment to learning-based management. Adaptive management in DOI is implemented within a legal context that includes statutory authorities such as the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the Endangered Species Act, and the Federal Advisory Committee Act. For many important problems now facing the resource management community, adaptive management holds great promise in reducing the uncertainties that limit the effective management of natural resource systems. For many conservation and management problems, utilizing management itself in an experimental context may be the only feasible way to gain the system understanding needed to improve management. Though it is commonly thought that an adaptive approach can produce results quickly at low cost, the opposite is more likely to be true. An initial investment of time and effort will increase the likelihood of better decision making and resource stewardship in the future, but patience, flexibility, and support are needed over the life of an adaptive management project. For these reasons it is important to carefully consider the potential use of an adaptive approach, and to engage in careful planning and evaluation when adaptive management is used.

A predictive model to inform adaptive management of double-crested cormorants and fisheries in Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tsehaye, Iyob; Jones, Michael L.; Irwin, Brian J.; Fielder, David G.; Breck, James E.; Luukkonen, David R.

2015-01-01

The proliferation of double-crested cormorants (DCCOs; Phalacrocorax auritus) in North America has raised concerns over their potential negative impacts on game, cultured and forage fishes, island and terrestrial resources, and other colonial water birds, leading to increased public demands to reduce their abundance. By combining fish surplus production and bird functional feeding response models, we developed a deterministic predictive model representing bird–fish interactions to inform an adaptive management process for the control of DCCOs in multiple colonies in Michigan. Comparisons of model predictions with observations of changes in DCCO numbers under management measures implemented from 2004 to 2012 suggested that our relatively simple model was able to accurately reconstruct past DCCO population dynamics. These comparisons helped discriminate among alternative parameterizations of demographic processes that were poorly known, especially site fidelity. Using sensitivity analysis, we also identified remaining critical uncertainties (mainly in the spatial distributions of fish vs. DCCO feeding areas) that can be used to prioritize future research and monitoring needs. Model forecasts suggested that continuation of existing control efforts would be sufficient to achieve long-term DCCO control targets in Michigan and that DCCO control may be necessary to achieve management goals for some DCCO-impacted fisheries in the state. Finally, our model can be extended by accounting for parametric or ecological uncertainty and including more complex assumptions on DCCO–fish interactions as part of the adaptive management process.

Using intervention mapping to develop a theory-driven, group-based complex intervention to support self-management of osteoarthritis and low back pain (SOLAS).

PubMed

Hurley, Deirdre A; Murphy, Laura Currie; Hayes, David; Hall, Amanda M; Toomey, Elaine; McDonough, Suzanne M; Lonsdale, Chris; Walsh, Nicola E; Guerin, Suzanne; Matthews, James

2016-04-26

The Medical Research Council framework provides a useful general approach to designing and evaluating complex interventions, but does not provide detailed guidance on how to do this and there is little evidence of how this framework is applied in practice. This study describes the use of intervention mapping (IM) in the design of a theory-driven, group-based complex intervention to support self-management (SM) of patients with osteoarthritis (OA) and chronic low back pain (CLBP) in Ireland's primary care health system. The six steps of the IM protocol were systematically applied to develop the self-management of osteoarthritis and low back pain through activity and skills (SOLAS) intervention through adaptation of the Facilitating Activity and Self-management in Arthritis (FASA) intervention. A needs assessment including literature reviews, interviews with patients and physiotherapists and resource evaluation was completed to identify the programme goals, determinants of SM behaviour, consolidated definition of SM and required adaptations to FASA to meet health service and patient needs and the evidence. The resultant SOLAS intervention behavioural outcomes, performance and change objectives were specified and practical application methods selected, followed by organised programme, adoption, implementation and evaluation plans underpinned by behaviour change theory. The SOLAS intervention consists of six weekly sessions of 90-min education and exercise designed to increase participants' physical activity level and use of evidence-based SM strategies (i.e. pain self-management, pain coping, healthy eating for weight management and specific exercise) through targeting of individual determinants of SM behaviour (knowledge, skills, self-efficacy, fear, catastrophizing, motivation, behavioural regulation), delivered by a trained physiotherapist to groups of up to eight individuals using a needs supportive interpersonal style based on self-determination theory. Strategies to support SOLAS intervention adoption and implementation included a consensus building workshop with physiotherapy stakeholders, development of a physiotherapist training programme and a pilot trial with physiotherapist and patient feedback. The SOLAS intervention is currently being evaluated in a cluster randomised controlled feasibility trial. IM is a time-intensive collaborative process, but the range of methods and resultant high level of transparency is invaluable and allows replication by future complex intervention and trial developers.

The Development of the Multi-Center Traffic Management Advisor (MCTMA): Traffic Flow Management Research in a Multi-Facility Environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Katharine K.; Davis, Thomas J.; Levin, Kerry M.; Rowe, Dennis W.

2001-01-01

The Traffic Management Advisor (TMA) is a decision-support tool for traffic managers and air traffic controllers that provides traffic flow visualization and other flow management tools. TMA creates an efficiently sequenced and safely spaced schedule for arrival traffic that meets but does not exceed specified airspace system constraints. TMA is being deployed at selected facilities throughout the National Airspace System in the US as part of the FAA's Free Flight Phase 1 program. TMA development and testing, and its current deployment, focuses on managing the arrival capacity for single major airports within single terminal areas and single en route centers. The next phase of development for this technology is the expansion of the TMA capability to complex facilities in which a terminal area or airport is fed by multiple en route centers, thus creating a multicenter TMA functionality. The focus of the multi-center TMA (McTMA) development is on the busy facilities in the Northeast comdor of the US. This paper describes the planning and development of McTMA and the challenges associated with adapting a successful traffic flow management tool for a very complex airspace.

Adaptable Network Cooperate Catalog for Complex Information Objects. From Single Library to a Consortium: Sharing the Management and Distribution of Information Resources.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morag, Azriel

Libraries faced with the challenge of cooperative cataloging must maintain a high degree of unification within the library network (consortium) without compromising local libraries' independence. This paper compares a traditional model for cooperative catalogs achieved by means of a Union Catalog that depends entirely on replication of data…

We're all in this together: decisionmaking to address climate change in a complex world

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson; Ralph Alig

2009-01-01

Forests significantly influence the global carbon budget: they store massive amounts of carbon in their wood and soil, they sequester atmospheric carbon as they grow, and they emit carbon as a greenhouse gas when harvested or converted to another use. These factors make forest conservation and management important components of most strategies for adapting to and...

Management adaptation to fires in the wildland-urban risk areas in Spain

Treesearch

Gema Herrero-Corral

2013-01-01

Forest fires not only cause damage to ecosystems but also result in major socio-economic losses and in the worst cases loss of human life. Specifically, the incidence of fires in the overlapping areas between building structures and forest vegetation (wildland-urban interface, WUI) generates highly-complex emergencies due to the presence of people and goods....

Adaptive algorithm of selecting optimal variant of errors detection system for digital means of automation facility of oil and gas complex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poluyan, A. Y.; Fugarov, D. D.; Purchina, O. A.; Nesterchuk, V. V.; Smirnova, O. V.; Petrenkova, S. B.

2018-05-01

To date, the problems associated with the detection of errors in digital equipment (DE) systems for the automation of explosive objects of the oil and gas complex are extremely actual. Especially this problem is actual for facilities where a violation of the accuracy of the DE will inevitably lead to man-made disasters and essential material damage, at such facilities, the diagnostics of the accuracy of the DE operation is one of the main elements of the industrial safety management system. In the work, the solution of the problem of selecting the optimal variant of the errors detection system of errors detection by a validation criterion. Known methods for solving these problems have an exponential valuation of labor intensity. Thus, with a view to reduce time for solving the problem, a validation criterion is compiled as an adaptive bionic algorithm. Bionic algorithms (BA) have proven effective in solving optimization problems. The advantages of bionic search include adaptability, learning ability, parallelism, the ability to build hybrid systems based on combining. [1].

A new concept of a unified parameter management, experiment control, and data analysis in fMRI: application to real-time fMRI at 3T and 7T.

PubMed

Hollmann, M; Mönch, T; Mulla-Osman, S; Tempelmann, C; Stadler, J; Bernarding, J

2008-10-30

In functional MRI (fMRI) complex experiments and applications require increasingly complex parameter handling as the experimental setup usually consists of separated soft- and hardware systems. Advanced real-time applications such as neurofeedback-based training or brain computer interfaces (BCIs) may even require adaptive changes of the paradigms and experimental setup during the measurement. This would be facilitated by an automated management of the overall workflow and a control of the communication between all experimental components. We realized a concept based on an XML software framework called Experiment Description Language (EDL). All parameters relevant for real-time data acquisition, real-time fMRI (rtfMRI) statistical data analysis, stimulus presentation, and activation processing are stored in one central EDL file, and processed during the experiment. A usability study comparing the central EDL parameter management with traditional approaches showed an improvement of the complete experimental handling. Based on this concept, a feasibility study realizing a dynamic rtfMRI-based brain computer interface showed that the developed system in combination with EDL was able to reliably detect and evaluate activation patterns in real-time. The implementation of a centrally controlled communication between the subsystems involved in the rtfMRI experiments reduced potential inconsistencies, and will open new applications for adaptive BCIs.

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations

PubMed Central

O'Sullivan, Tracey L.; Kuziemsky, Craig E.; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-01-01

Introduction: Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. Methods: The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Results: Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. Discussion: We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities. PMID:25642373

The EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Tracey L; Kuziemsky, Craig E; Corneil, Wayne; Lemyre, Louise; Franco, Zeno

2014-10-02

Resilience has been described in many ways and is inherently complex. In essence, it refers to the capacity to face and do well when adversity is encountered. There is a need for empirical research on community level initiatives designed to enhance resilience for high-risk groups as part of an upstream approach to disaster management. In this study, we address this issue, presenting the EnRiCH Community Resilience Framework for High-Risk Populations. The framework presented in this paper is empirically-based, using qualitative data from focus groups conducted as part of an asset-mapping intervention in five communities in Canada, and builds on extant literature in the fields of disaster and emergency management, health promotion, and community development. Adaptive capacity is placed at the centre of the framework as a focal point, surrounded by four strategic areas for intervention (awareness/communication, asset/resource management, upstream-oriented leadership, and connectedness/engagement). Three drivers of adaptive capacity (empowerment, innovation, and collaboration) cross-cut the strategic areas and represent levers for action which can influence systems, people and institutions through expansion of asset literacy. Each component of the framework is embedded within the complexity and culture of a community. We present recommendations for how this framework can be used to guide the design of future resilience-oriented initiatives with particular emphasis on inclusive engagement across a range of functional capabilities.

Hydro-meteorological risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Sava River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brilly, Mitja; Šraj, Mojca; Kryžanowski, Andrej

2017-04-01

The Sava River Basin covered the teritory of several countries. There were, in past thirty years, several flood hazard events with almost hundred years return period. Parts of the basin suffer by severe droughts also. In the presentation we covered questions of: • Flood hazard in complex hydrology structure • Landslide and flush flood in mountainous regions • Floods on karst polje • Flood risk management in the complex international and hydrological condition. • Impact of man made structures: hydropower storages, inundation ponds, river regulation, alternate streams, levees system, pumping stations, Natura 2000 areas etc. • How to manage droughts in the international river basin The basin is well covered by information and managed by international the SRB Commission (http://savacommission.org/) that could help. We develop study for climate change impact on floods on entire river basin financing by UNECE. There is also study provide climate change impact on the water management provide by World Bank and on which we take part. Recently is out call by world bank for study »Flood risk management plan for the SRB«.

Informatics Metrics and Measures for a Smart Public Health Systems Approach: Information Science Perspective

PubMed Central

Shea, Christopher Michael

2017-01-01

Public health informatics is an evolving domain in which practices constantly change to meet the demands of a highly complex public health and healthcare delivery system. Given the emergence of various concepts, such as learning health systems, smart health systems, and adaptive complex health systems, health informatics professionals would benefit from a common set of measures and capabilities to inform our modeling, measuring, and managing of health system “smartness.” Here, we introduce the concepts of organizational complexity, problem/issue complexity, and situational awareness as three codependent drivers of smart public health systems characteristics. We also propose seven smart public health systems measures and capabilities that are important in a public health informatics professional's toolkit. PMID:28167999

Informatics Metrics and Measures for a Smart Public Health Systems Approach: Information Science Perspective.

PubMed

Carney, Timothy Jay; Shea, Christopher Michael

2017-01-01

Public health informatics is an evolving domain in which practices constantly change to meet the demands of a highly complex public health and healthcare delivery system. Given the emergence of various concepts, such as learning health systems, smart health systems, and adaptive complex health systems, health informatics professionals would benefit from a common set of measures and capabilities to inform our modeling, measuring, and managing of health system "smartness." Here, we introduce the concepts of organizational complexity, problem/issue complexity, and situational awareness as three codependent drivers of smart public health systems characteristics. We also propose seven smart public health systems measures and capabilities that are important in a public health informatics professional's toolkit.

Root developmental adaptation to phosphate starvation: better safe than sorry.

PubMed

Péret, Benjamin; Clément, Mathilde; Nussaume, Laurent; Desnos, Thierry

2011-08-01

Phosphorus is a crucial component of major organic molecules such as nucleic acids, ATP and membrane phospholipids. It is present in soils in the form of inorganic phosphate (Pi), which has low availability and poor mobility. To cope with Pi limitations, plants have evolved complex adaptive responses that include morphological and physiological modifications. This review describes how the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana adapts its root system architecture to phosphate deficiency through inhibition of primary root growth, increase in lateral root formation and growth and production of root hairs, which all promote topsoil foraging. A better understanding of plant adaptation to low phosphate will open the way to increased phosphorus use efficiency by crops. Such an improvement is needed in order to adjust how we manage limited phosphorus stocks and to reduce the disastrous environmental effects of phosphate fertilizers overuse. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mercury Remediation Technology Development for Lower East Fork Poplar Creek - FY 2015 Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peterson, Mark J.; Brooks, Scott C.; Mathews, Teresa J.

2016-04-01

Mercury remediation is a high priority for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management (OREM) because of large historical losses of mercury within buildings and to soils and surface waters at the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12). Because of the extent of mercury losses and the complexities of mercury transport and fate in the downstream environment, the success of conventional options for mercury remediation in lower East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) is uncertain. A phased, adaptive management approach to remediation of surface water includes mercury treatment actions at Y-12 in the short-term and research andmore » technology development (TD) to evaluate longer-term solutions in the downstream environment (US Department of Energy 2014b).« less

Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

2013-01-01

Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

A Framework Approach to Evaluate Cross-Cultural Adaptation of Public Engagement Strategies for Radioactive Waste Management - 13430

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hermann, Laura

2013-07-01

The complex interplay of politics, economics and culture undermines attempts to define universal best practices for public engagement in the management of nuclear materials. In the international context, communicators must rely on careful adaptation and creative execution to make standard communication techniques succeed in their local communities. Nuclear professionals need an approach to assess and adapt culturally specific public engagement strategies to meet the demands of their particular political, economic and social structures. Using participant interviews and public sources, the Potomac Communications Group reviewed country-specific examples of nuclear-related communication efforts to provide insight into a proposed approach. The review consideredmore » a spectrum of cultural dimensions related to diversity, authority, conformity, proximity and time. Comparisons help to identify cross-cultural influences of various public engagement tactics and to inform a framework for communicators. While not prescriptive in its application, the framework offers a way for communicators to assess the salience of outreach tactics in specific situations. The approach can guide communicators to evaluate and tailor engagement strategies to achieve localized public outreach goals. (authors)« less

Adapted physical activity programme and self-perception in obese adolescents with intellectual disability: between morphological awareness and positive illusory bias.

PubMed

Salaun, Laureline; Reynes, Eric; Berthouze-Aranda, Sophie E

2014-03-01

In adolescent with intellectual disability, the management of obesity is a crucial issue, yet also quite complex because of their particular perception of themselves. This study investigated the relationship between self-perception variables and morphological variables and their changes after a 9-month Adapted Physical Activity (APA) programme. Twenty-three adolescents with intellectual disability responded to an adapted questionnaire, including the PSI-VSF-ID and a nine-drawing body silhouette scale. Anthropometric and body composition indicators were measured before and after the APA programme. The main predictor of the adolescents' self-perceptions was the inclination towards positive illusory bias before the intervention; obesity awareness ranked second. Morphological measurements did not contribute in the same way to self-perceptions in the initial and final data. This study confirms the interest of weight management programmes for adolescents with intellectual disability and points to the need to take positive illusory bias more fully into account in the study of self-perception. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A framework for identifying water management typologies for agent based modeling of water resources and its application in the Boise River Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaiser, K. E.; Flores, A. N.; Hillis, V.; Moroney, J.; Schneider, J.

2017-12-01

Modeling the management of water resources necessitates incorporation of complex social and hydrologic dynamics. Simulation of these socio-ecological systems requires characterization of the decision-making process of relevant actors, the mechanisms through which they exert control on the biophysical system, their ability to react and adapt to regional environmental conditions, and the plausible behaviors in response to changes in those conditions. Agent based models (ABMs) are a useful tool in simulating these complex adaptive systems because they can dynamically couple hydrological models and the behavior of decision making actors. ABMs can provide a flexible, integrated framework that can represent multi-scale interactions, and the heterogeneity of information networks and sources. However, the variability in behavior of water management actors across systems makes characterizing agent behaviors and relationships challenging. Agent typologies, or agent functional types (AFTs), group together individuals and/or agencies with similar functional roles, management objectives, and decision-making strategies. AFTs have been used to represent archetypal land managers in the agricultural and forestry sectors in large-scale socio-economic system models. A similar typology of water actors could simplify the representation of water management across river basins, and increase transferability and scaling of resulting ABMs. Here, we present a framework for identifying and classifying major water actors and show how we will link an ABM of water management to a regional hydrologic model in a western river basin. The Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho is an interesting setting to apply our AFT framework because of the diverse stakeholders and associated management objectives which include managing urban growth pressures and water supply in the face of climate change. Precipitation in the upper basin supplies 90% of the surface water used in the basin, thus managers of the reservoir system (located in the upper basin) must balance flood control for the metropolitan area with water supply for downstream agricultural and hydropower use. Identifying dominant water management typologies that include state and federal agencies will increase the transferability of water management ABMs in the western US.

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

2012-01-01

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

Dynamic game balancing implementation using adaptive algorithm in mobile-based Safari Indonesia game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuniarti, Anny; Nata Wardanie, Novita; Kuswardayan, Imam

2018-03-01

In developing a game there is one method that should be applied to maintain the interest of players, namely dynamic game balancing. Dynamic game balancing is a process to match a player’s playing style with the behaviour, attributes, and game environment. This study applies dynamic game balancing using adaptive algorithm in scrolling shooter game type called Safari Indonesia which developed using Unity. The game of this type is portrayed by a fighter aircraft character trying to defend itself from insistent enemy attacks. This classic game is chosen to implement adaptive algorithms because it has quite complex attributes to be developed using dynamic game balancing. Tests conducted by distributing questionnaires to a number of players indicate that this method managed to reduce frustration and increase the pleasure factor in playing.

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease

PubMed Central

Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis

2017-01-01

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no “easy-to-use” implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking. PMID:28982151

GMDPtoolbox: A Matlab library for designing spatial management policies. Application to the long-term collective management of an airborne disease.

PubMed

Cros, Marie-Josée; Aubertot, Jean-Noël; Peyrard, Nathalie; Sabbadin, Régis

2017-01-01

Designing management policies in ecology and agroecology is complex. Several components must be managed together while they strongly interact spatially. Decision choices must be made under uncertainty on the results of the actions and on the system dynamics. Furthermore, the objectives pursued when managing ecological systems or agroecosystems are usually long term objectives, such as biodiversity conservation or sustainable crop production. The framework of Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is well adapted to the qualitative modeling of such problems of sequential decision under uncertainty. Spatial interactions are easily modeled and integrated control policies (combining several action levers) can be designed through optimization. The provided policies are adaptive, meaning that management actions are decided at each time step (for instance yearly) and the chosen actions depend on the current system state. This framework has already been successfully applied to forest management and invasive species management. However, up to now, no "easy-to-use" implementation of this framework was available. We present GMDPtoolbox, a Matlab toolbox which can be used both for the design of new management policies and for comparing policies by simulation. We provide an illustration of the use of the toolbox on a realistic crop disease management problem: the design of long term management policy of blackleg of canola using an optimal combination of three possible cultural levers. This example shows how GMDPtoolbox can be used as a tool to support expert thinking.

Adaptive management for improving species conservation across the captive-wild spectrum

USGS Publications Warehouse

Canessa, Stefano; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Lahoz-Monfort, José J.; Southwell, Darren M; Armstrong, Doug P.; Chadès, Iadine; Lacy, Robert C; Converse, Sarah J.

2016-01-01

Conservation of endangered species increasingly envisages complex strategies that integrate captive and wild management actions. Management decisions in this context must be made in the face of uncertainty, often with limited capacity to collect information. Adaptive management (AM) combines management and monitoring, with the aim of updating knowledge and improving decision-making over time. We provide a guide for managers who may realize the potential of AM, but are unsure where to start. The urgent need for iterative management decisions, the existence of uncertainty, and the opportunity for learning offered by often highly-controlled captive environments create favorable conditions for AM. However, experiments and monitoring may be complicated by small sample sizes, and the ability to control the system, including stochasticity and observability, may be limited toward the wild end of the spectrum. We illustrate the key steps to implementing AM in threatened species management using four case studies, including the management of captive programs for cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and whooping cranes (Grus americana), of a translocation protocol for Arizona cliffroses Purshia subintegra and of ongoing supplementary feeding of reintroduced hihi (Notiomystis cincta) populations. For each case study, we explain (1) how to clarify whether the decision can be improved by learning (i.e. it is iterative and complicated by uncertainty) and what the management objectives are; (2) how to articulate uncertainty via alternative, testable hypotheses such as competing models or parameter distributions; (3) how to formally define how additional information can be collected and incorporated in future management decisions.

Using a complex adaptive system lens to understand family caregiving experiences navigating the stroke rehabilitation system.

PubMed

Ghazzawi, Andrea; Kuziemsky, Craig; O'Sullivan, Tracey

2016-10-01

Family caregivers provide the stroke survivor with social support and continuity during the transition home from a rehabilitation facility. In this exploratory study we examined family caregivers' perceptions and experiences navigating the stroke rehabilitation system. The theories of continuity of care and complex adaptive systems were integrated to examine the transition from a stroke rehabilitation facility to the patient's home. This study provides an understanding of the interacting complexities at the macro and micro levels. A convenient sample of family caregivers (n = 14) who provide care for a stroke survivor were recruited 4-12 weeks following the patient's discharge from a stroke rehabilitation facility in Ontario, Canada. Interviews were conducted with family caregivers to examine their perceptions and experiences navigating the stroke rehabilitation system. Directed and inductive content analysis and the theory of Complex Adaptive Systems were used to interpret the perceptions of family caregivers. Health system policies and procedures at the macro-level determined the types and timing of information being provided to caregivers, and impacted continuity of care and access to supports and services at the micro-level. Supports and services in the community, such as outpatient physiotherapy services, were limited or did not meet the specific needs of the stroke survivors or family caregivers. Relationships with health providers, informational support, and continuity in case management all influence the family caregiving experience and ultimately the quality of care for the stroke survivor, during the transition home from a rehabilitation facility.

Informing climate-related decisions in complex river basins: A comparative assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Bark, R. H.; Maia, R.; Udall, B.

2010-12-01

Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve climate-related adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. Adaptation includes technical changes that improve water use efficiency, early warning, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Incentives for improving water-use efficiency, hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. However, conflicts exist between processes and goals of water management and governance. These militate against the effectiveness of using scientific information to meet short-term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities such as for “increasing water supply while meeting environmental needs.” A complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of transfers of the use of water from one sector to another. In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in water resources management in the context of a changing climate. Lessons are drawn from watersheds around the world including the Colorado, Columbia, Murray-Darling, Guadiana and others. We explore how watershed managers and researchers are attempting to address the risks associated with climatic change and potential surprises. In spite of numerous climate impacts studies the management of the cumulative impacts of extremes (droughts, floods etc.) remains reactive and crisis-driven. Most recommendations stay within the applied sciences realm of technological interventions and supply driven approaches. Clearly more is needed to inform an integrated watershed management approaches in which adaptive management functions as an operational tool for learning. The barriers to implementing adaptation measures include the inability of some natural systems to adapt at the rate of combined demographic pressures and climate, incomplete understanding and quantifying of water demands, and impediments to the flow of timely and reliable knowledge and information relevant for decision makers. Mechanisms to expand this range of choice include: Anticipatory coordination within development plans (e.g. adaptive management within integrated watershed and coastal zone plans). Developing usable climate risk management triggers for early warning of potential conflicts in agriculture, water, energy, health, environment , and coastal zones, including a mixed portfolio of past data and scenario-based approaches Developing and employing water efficient technologies. Actively engaging communities and states in mainstreaming climate information such as in the development of scenarios that link climate and development goals Future needs include exploration of alternate integration models and overlying policy structures that could, together, facilitate and sustain shared learning as climate varies and change

Plant Hormesis Management with Biostimulants of Biotic Origin in Agriculture.

PubMed

Vargas-Hernandez, Marcela; Macias-Bobadilla, Israel; Guevara-Gonzalez, Ramon G; Romero-Gomez, Sergio de J; Rico-Garcia, Enrique; Ocampo-Velazquez, Rosalia V; Alvarez-Arquieta, Luz de L; Torres-Pacheco, Irineo

2017-01-01

Over time plants developed complex mechanisms in order to adapt themselves to the environment. Plant innate immunity is one of the most important mechanisms for the environmental adaptation. A myriad of secondary metabolites with nutraceutical features are produced by the plant immune system in order to get adaptation to new environments that provoke stress (stressors). Hormesis is a phenomenon by which a stressor (i.e., toxins, herbicides, etc.) stimulates the cellular stress response, including secondary metabolites production, in order to help organisms to establish adaptive responses. Hormetins of biotic origin (i.e., biostimulants or biological control compounds), in certain doses might enhance plant performance, however, in excessive doses they are commonly deleterious. Biostimulants or biological control compounds of biotic origin are called "elicitors" that have widely been studied as inducers of plant tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses. The plant response toward elicitors is reminiscent of hormetic responses toward toxins in several organisms. Thus, controlled management of hormetic responses in plants using these types of compounds is expected to be an important tool to increase nutraceutical quality of plant food and trying to minimize negative effects on yields. The aim of this review is to analyze the potential for agriculture that the use of biostimulants and biological control compounds of biotic origin could have in the management of the plant hormesis. The use of homolog DNA as biostimulant or biological control compound in crop production is also discussed.

Plant Hormesis Management with Biostimulants of Biotic Origin in Agriculture

PubMed Central

Vargas-Hernandez, Marcela; Macias-Bobadilla, Israel; Guevara-Gonzalez, Ramon G.; Romero-Gomez, Sergio de J.; Rico-Garcia, Enrique; Ocampo-Velazquez, Rosalia V.; Alvarez-Arquieta, Luz de L.; Torres-Pacheco, Irineo

2017-01-01

Over time plants developed complex mechanisms in order to adapt themselves to the environment. Plant innate immunity is one of the most important mechanisms for the environmental adaptation. A myriad of secondary metabolites with nutraceutical features are produced by the plant immune system in order to get adaptation to new environments that provoke stress (stressors). Hormesis is a phenomenon by which a stressor (i.e., toxins, herbicides, etc.) stimulates the cellular stress response, including secondary metabolites production, in order to help organisms to establish adaptive responses. Hormetins of biotic origin (i.e., biostimulants or biological control compounds), in certain doses might enhance plant performance, however, in excessive doses they are commonly deleterious. Biostimulants or biological control compounds of biotic origin are called “elicitors” that have widely been studied as inducers of plant tolerance to biotic and abiotic stresses. The plant response toward elicitors is reminiscent of hormetic responses toward toxins in several organisms. Thus, controlled management of hormetic responses in plants using these types of compounds is expected to be an important tool to increase nutraceutical quality of plant food and trying to minimize negative effects on yields. The aim of this review is to analyze the potential for agriculture that the use of biostimulants and biological control compounds of biotic origin could have in the management of the plant hormesis. The use of homolog DNA as biostimulant or biological control compound in crop production is also discussed. PMID:29081787

Toward Dynamic Adaptation of Psychological Interventions for Child and Adolescent Development and Mental Health.

PubMed

Malti, Tina; Noam, Gil G; Beelmann, Andreas; Sommer, Simon

2016-01-01

Children's and adolescents' mental health needs emphasize the necessity of a new era of translational research to enhance development and yield better lives for children, families, and communities. Developmental, clinical, and translational research serves as a powerful tool for managing the inevitable complexities in pursuit of these goals. This article proposes key ideas that will strengthen current evidence-based intervention practices by creating stronger links between research, practice, and complex systems contexts, with the potential of extending applicability, replicability, and impact. As exemplified in some of the articles throughout this special issue, new research and innovative implementation models will likely contribute to better ways of assessing and dynamically adapting structure and intervention practice within mental health systems. We contend that future models for effective interventions with children and adolescents will involve increased attention to (a) the connection of research on the developmental needs of children and adolescents to practice models; (b) consideration of informed contextual and cultural adaptation in implementation; and (c) a rational model of evidence-based planning, using a dynamic, inclusive approach with high support for adaptation, flexibility, and implementation fidelity. We discuss future directions for translational research for researchers, practitioners, and administrators in the field to continue and transform these ideas and their illustrations.

Adaptive management of watersheds and related resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, Byron K.

2009-01-01

The concept of learning about natural resources through the practice of management has been around for several decades and by now is associated with the term adaptive management. The objectives of this paper are to offer a framework for adaptive management that includes an operational definition, a description of conditions in which it can be usefully applied, and a systematic approach to its application. Adaptive decisionmaking is described as iterative, learning-based management in two phases, each with its own mechanisms for feedback and adaptation. The linkages between traditional experimental science and adaptive management are discussed.

Adaptive management of social-ecological systems: the path forward

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.

2015-01-01

Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed attempts to implement it, adaptive management has yet to be replaced with a better alternative. The concept persists because it is simple, allows action despite uncertainty, and fosters learning. Moving forward, adaptive management of social-ecological systems provides policymakers, managers and scientists a powerful tool for managing for resilience in the face of uncertainty.

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows are usually only suited for rigid processes. We show how improvements can be achieved by using decision tables and rule-based adaptive workflows. Decision tables have been shown to be an intuitive tool that can be used by domain experts to express rule sets that can be interpreted automatically at runtime. Adaptive workflows use a rule-based approach to increase the flexibility of workflows by providing mechanisms to adapt workflows based on context changes, human intervention and availability of services. The combination of workflows, decision tables and rule-based adaption creates a framework that opens up new possibilities for flexible and adaptable workflows, especially, for use in early warning and crisis management systems.

[Non adherence and topical steroids].

PubMed

Aubert, H; Barbarot, S

2012-01-01

Compliance raises very specific questions in dermatology related to the frequent use of local treatments: creams or ointments, including topical corticosteroids. The adherence in dermatology is a complex issue. It is difficult to quantify objectively because of the patient subjectivity, the constant adaptation to changes in the course of the disease, and due to the lack of adapted device. Moreover poor compliance may be related to topical corticosteroid phobia, defined as a fear vis-à-vis the topical corticosteroids, rational or not. The topical corticosteroid phobia is very common in the management of chronic inflammatory skin diseases especially in atopic dermatitis. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Fault-Resistant Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-10-01

An Architectural Overview of the Alpha Real-Time Distributed Kernel . In Proceeding., of the USEN[X Workshop on Microkernels and Other Kernel ...system and the controller are monolithic . We have noted earlier some of the problems of distributed systems-for exam- ple, the need to bound the...are monolithic . In practice, designers employ a layered structuring for their systems in order to manage complexity, and we expect that practical

Historical framework to explain long-term coupled human and natural system feedbacks: application to a multiple-ownership forest landscape in the northern Great Lakes region, USA

Treesearch

Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Nancy Langston; Mark D. O. Adams; David J. Mladenoff

2015-01-01

Current and future human and forest landscape conditions are influenced by the cumulative, unfolding history of socialecological interactions. Examining past system responses, especially unintended consequences, can reveal valuable insights that promote learning and adaptation in forest policy and management. Temporal couplings are complex, however; they can be...

Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

75 FR 34476 - Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-17

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Reclamation Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group... Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and to provide... of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group is in the public interest in connection with...

FORUM: Effective management of ecological resilience – are we there yet?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spears, Bryan M.; Ives, Stephen C.; Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Birk, Sebastian; Carvalho, Laurence; Cavers, Stephen; Daunt, Francis; Morton, R. Daniel; Pocock, Michael J. O.; Rhodes, Glenn; Thackeray, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

Ecological resilience is developing into a credible paradigm for policy development and environmental management for preserving natural capital in a rapidly changing world. However, resilience emerges from complex interactions, limiting the translation of theory into practice.Main limitations include the following: (i) difficulty in quantification and detection of changes in ecological resilience, (ii) a lack of empirical evidence to support preventative or proactive management and (iii) difficulties in managing processes operating across socio-ecological systems that vary in space and time.We highlight recent research with the potential to address these limitations including new and/or improved indicators of resilience and tools to assess scale as a driver of resilience.Synthesis and applications. Effective resilience-based management must be adaptive in nature. To support this, we propose an operational model using resilience-based iterative management actions operating across scales.

Multi-disciplinary scientists as global change adaptation anchors: Filling the gaps in the Boundary Organization paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terando, A. J.; Collazo, J.

2017-12-01

Boundary organizations, entities that facilitate the co-production and translation of scientific research in decision making processes, have been promoted as a means to assist global change adaptation, particularly in the areas of landscape conservation and natural resource management. However, scientists can and often still must perform a similar role and act as anchoring agents within wicked adaptation problems that involve a myriad of actors, values, scientific uncertainties, governance structures, and multidisciplinary research needs. We illustrate one such case study in Puerto Rico's Bosque Modelo (Model Forest) where we discuss an ongoing scientific effort to undertake a multi-objective landscape conservation design project that intersects with the Bosque Modelo geography and goals. Perspectives are provided from two research ecologists, one with a background in terrestrial ecology who has worked at the intersection of science, conservation, and government for over 30 years, and the other with a multi-disciplinary background in earth sciences, climatology, and terrestrial ecology. We frame our discussion around the learning process that accompanies the development of global change scenarios that are both useful and useable for a wide spectrum of scientists, and the likelihood that scientifically informed adaptive management actions will ultimately be implemented in this complex and changing landscape.

Challenges and Experiences of Building Multidisciplinary Datasets across Cultures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamiyansharav, K.; Laituri, M.; Fernandez-Gimenez, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Venable, N. B. H.; Allegretti, A. M.; Reid, R.; Baival, B.; Jamsranjav, C.; Ulambayar, T.; Linn, S.; Angerer, J.

2017-12-01

Efficient data sharing and management are key challenges to multidisciplinary scientific research. These challenges are further complicated by adding a multicultural component. We address the construction of a complex database for social-ecological analysis in Mongolia. Funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human (CNH) Systems, the Mongolian Rangelands and Resilience (MOR2) project focuses on the vulnerability of Mongolian pastoral systems to climate change and adaptive capacity. The MOR2 study spans over three years of fieldwork in 36 paired districts (Soum) from 18 provinces (Aimag) of Mongolia that covers steppe, mountain forest steppe, desert steppe and eastern steppe ecological zones. Our project team is composed of hydrologists, social scientists, geographers, and ecologists. The MOR2 database includes multiple ecological, social, meteorological, geospatial and hydrological datasets, as well as archives of original data and survey in multiple formats. Managing this complex database requires significant organizational skills, attention to detail and ability to communicate within collective team members from diverse disciplines and across multiple institutions in the US and Mongolia. We describe the database's rich content, organization, structure and complexity. We discuss lessons learned, best practices and recommendations for complex database management, sharing, and archiving in creating a cross-cultural and multi-disciplinary database.

Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Rube B.

2004-02-01

Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

The paradox of physicians and administrators in health care organizations.

PubMed

Peirce, J C

2000-01-01

Rapidly changing times in health care challenge both physicians and health care administrators to manage the paradox of providing orderly, high quality, and efficient care while bringing forth innovations to address present unmet problems and surprises that emerge. Health care has grown throughout the past several centuries through differentiation and integration, becoming a highly complex biological system with the hospital as the central attractive force--or "strange attractor"--during this century. The theoretical model of complex adaptive systems promises more effective strategic direction in addressing these chaotic times where the new strange attractor moves beyond the hospital.

Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2010-01-01

First featured in Spinoff 2001, Qualtech Systems Inc. (QSI), of Wethersfield, Connecticut, adapted its Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System (TEAMS) toolset under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Ames Research Center to strengthen NASA's systems health management approach for its large, complex, and interconnected systems. Today, six NASA field centers utilize the TEAMS toolset, including TEAMS-Designer, TEAMS-RT, TEAMATE, and TEAMS-RDS. TEAMS is also being used on industrial systems that generate power, carry data, refine chemicals, perform medical functions, and produce semiconductor wafers. QSI finds TEAMS can lower costs by decreasing problems requiring service by 30 to 50 percent.

Acquisition Risks in a World of Joint Capabilities: A Study of Interdependency Complexity

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

organizations are able to sustain creative, innovative , continually changing behavior. Stacey calls for the need to establish spontaneous changeability...oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=moldo^jW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=`Ü~åÖÉ= -=41 - = Levinthal, D. (1997). Adaptation on rugged landscapes. Management Science , 43(7), 934...Capabilities: A Study of Interdependency Complexity 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

Complex Adaptive Systems: The Theater Air Control System in Desert Storm

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-22

insight into leverage points of effective and ineffective adaptation of the TACS. Successful adaptation indicates that increased variety or diversity of...encourages innovation and diversity of ideas. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Theater Air Control System, TACS, Complex Adaptive Systems, Adaptation, Desert Storm...increased variety or diversity of agents and purposeful behaviors are beneficial to overcoming complexity. Leaders play a key role in creating an

Adaptation Challenges in Complex River Basins: Lessons Learned and Unlearned for the Colorado

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2008-12-01

Climate variations affect the function and operation of existing water infrastructure - including hydropower, structural flood defenses, drainage and irrigation systems - as well as water management practices in support of efficiency and environmental needs. Selected basins around the world, including the Colorado, show agreements in model projections of increasing aridity. Adverse effects of climate change on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change and urbanization and most importantly upstream-downstream winners and losers. Thus current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water supply reliability. In many locations, water management does not even satisfactorily cope with current climate variability, so that large flood and drought-related environmental and economic damages occur on seasonal to decadal timescales. The recently released IPCC Technical Paper notes that adaptation procedures and risk management practices that incorporate projected hydrological changes with related uncertainties are being developed in some countries and regions.In this presentation we will review the challenges and lessons provided in drought and water resources management and optimization in the context of climate variability and projected change in the Western U.S., the European Union (including the Iberian Peninsula), the Murray-Darling Basin, and elsewhere. Since the release of the IPCC report several of the authors (including the presenter) have held meetings on comparative assessments of adaptation and its challenges in interstate and international river basins. As a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management could assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts. Future adaptations include technical changes that improve water use efficiency, demand management (e.g. through metering and pricing), and institutional changes that improve the tradability of water rights. The co-evolution of climate history and adaptation did not start with the release of IPCC scenarios. The development of the Colorado River Basin was itself influenced by water resources planners from around the world (including the Middle East) in the late 1800s. As such lessons identified, but not always learned, abound. These hold considerable promise for water savings and the reallocation of water to highly valued uses. Supply-side strategies generally involve increases in storage capacity, abstraction from watercourses, and water transfers. Integrated water resources management provides an important governance framework to achieve adaptation measures across socio-economic, environmental and administrative systems. However, several paradoxes in water management and governance mitigate against the effectiveness of scientific information for meeting short term needs in the context of reducing longer-term vulnerabilities and for providing water to meet environmental needs. Consequently a complete analysis of the effects of climate change on human water uses would consider cross-sector interactions, including the impacts of changes in water use efficiency and intentional transfers of the use of water from one sector to another.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Saxer, Gerda; Krepps, Michael D.; Merkley, Eric D.

Adaptation to ecologically complex environments can provide insights into the evolutionary dynamics and functional constraints encountered by organisms during natural selection. Unlike adaptation to a single limiting resource, adaptation to a new environment with abundant and varied resources can be difficult to achieve by small incremental changes since many mutations are required to achieve even modest gains in fitness. Since changing complex environments are quite common in nature, we investigated how such an epistatic bottleneck can be avoided to allow rapid adaptation. We show that adaptive mutations arise repeatedly in independently evolved populations in the context of greatly increased geneticmore » and phenotypic diversity. We go on to show that weak selection requiring substantial metabolic reprogramming can be readily achieved by mutations in the global response regulator arcA and the stress response regulator rpoS. We identified 46 unique single-nucleotide variants of arcA and 18 mutations in rpoS, nine of which resulted in stop codons or large deletions, suggesting that a subtle modulation of ArcA function and knockouts of rpoS are largely responsible for the metabolic shifts leading to adaptation. These mutations allow a higher order “metabolic selection” that eliminates epistatic bottlenecks, which could occur when many changes would be required. Proteomic and carbohydrate analysis of adapting E. coli populations revealed an up-regulation of enzymes associated with the TCA cycle and amino acid metabolism and an increase in the secretion of putrescine. The overall effect of adaptation across populations is to redirect and efficiently utilize uptake and catabolism of abundant amino acids. Concomitantly, there is a pronounced spread of more ecologically limited strains that results from specialization through metabolic erosion. Remarkably, the global regulators arcA and rpoS can provide a “one-step” mechanism of adaptation to a novel environment, which highlights the importance of global resource management as a powerful strategy to adaptation.« less

Adaptive Management

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive managem...

Complex adaptive systems and their relevance for nursing: An evolutionary concept analysis.

PubMed

Notarnicola, Ippolito; Petrucci, Cristina; De Jesus Barbosa, Maria Rosimar; Giorgi, Fabio; Stievano, Alessandro; Rocco, Gennaro; Lancia, Loreto

2017-06-01

This study aimed to analyse the concept of "complex adaptive systems." The construct is still nebulous in the literature, and a further explanation of the idea is needed to have a shared knowledge of it. A concept analysis was conducted utilizing Rodgers evolutionary method. The inclusive years of bibliographic search started from 2005 to 2015. The search was conducted at PubMed©, CINAHL© (EBSCO host©), Scopus©, Web of Science©, and Academic Search Premier©. Retrieved papers were critically analysed to explore the attributes, antecedents, and consequences of the concept. Moreover, surrogates, related terms, and a pattern recognition scheme were identified. The concept analysis showed that complex systems are adaptive and have the ability to process information. They can adapt to the environment and consequently evolve. Nursing is a complex adaptive system, and the nursing profession in practice exhibits complex adaptive system characteristics. Complexity science through complex adaptive systems provides new ways of seeing and understanding the mechanisms that underpin the nursing profession. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

An ontological knowledge framework for adaptive medical workflow.

PubMed

Dang, Jiangbo; Hedayati, Amir; Hampel, Ken; Toklu, Candemir

2008-10-01

As emerging technologies, semantic Web and SOA (Service-Oriented Architecture) allow BPMS (Business Process Management System) to automate business processes that can be described as services, which in turn can be used to wrap existing enterprise applications. BPMS provides tools and methodologies to compose Web services that can be executed as business processes and monitored by BPM (Business Process Management) consoles. Ontologies are a formal declarative knowledge representation model. It provides a foundation upon which machine understandable knowledge can be obtained, and as a result, it makes machine intelligence possible. Healthcare systems can adopt these technologies to make them ubiquitous, adaptive, and intelligent, and then serve patients better. This paper presents an ontological knowledge framework that covers healthcare domains that a hospital encompasses-from the medical or administrative tasks, to hospital assets, medical insurances, patient records, drugs, and regulations. Therefore, our ontology makes our vision of personalized healthcare possible by capturing all necessary knowledge for a complex personalized healthcare scenario involving patient care, insurance policies, and drug prescriptions, and compliances. For example, our ontology facilitates a workflow management system to allow users, from physicians to administrative assistants, to manage, even create context-aware new medical workflows and execute them on-the-fly.

Controlled Environments Enable Adaptive Management in Aquatic Ecosystems Under Altered Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David L.

2016-01-01

Ecosystems worldwide are impacted by altered environment conditions resulting from climate, drought, and land use changes. Gaps in the science knowledge base regarding plant community response to these novel and rapid changes limit both science understanding and management of ecosystems. We describe how CE Technologies have enabled the rapid supply of gap-filling science, development of ecosystem simulation models, and remote sensing assessment tools to provide science-informed, adaptive management methods in the impacted aquatic ecosystem of the California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The Delta is the hub for California's water, supplying Southern California agriculture and urban communities as well as the San Francisco Bay area. The changes in environmental conditions including temperature, light, and water quality and associated expansion of invasive aquatic plants negatively impact water distribution and ecology of the San Francisco Bay/Delta complex. CE technologies define changes in resource use efficiencies, photosynthetic productivity, evapotranspiration, phenology, reproductive strategies, and spectral reflectance modifications in native and invasive species in response to altered conditions. We will discuss how the CE technologies play an enabling role in filling knowledge gaps regarding plant response to altered environments, parameterization and validation of ecosystem models, development of satellite-based, remote sensing tools, and operational management strategies.

[Controlling systems for operating room managers].

PubMed

Schüpfer, G; Bauer, M; Scherzinger, B; Schleppers, A

2005-08-01

Management means developing, shaping and controlling of complex, productive and social systems. Therefore, operating room managers also need to develop basic skills in financial and managerial accounting as a basis for operative and strategic controlling which is an essential part of their work. A good measurement system should include financial and strategic concepts for market position, innovation performance, productivity, attractiveness, liquidity/cash flow and profitability. Since hospitals need to implement a strategy to reach their business objectives, the performance measurement system has to be individually adapted to the strategy of the hospital. In this respect the navigation system developed by Gälweiler is compared to the "balanced score card" system of Kaplan and Norton.

Towards integrative risk management and more resilient societies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Al-Khudhairy, D.; Axhausen, K.; Bishop, S.; Herrmann, H.; Hu, B.; Kröger, W.; Lewis, T.; MacIntosh, J.; Nowak, A.; Pickl, S.; Stauffacher, D.; Tan, E.

2012-11-01

Society depends decisively on the availability of infrastructure systems such as energy, telecommunication, transportation, banking and finance, health care and governmental and public administration. Even selective damages of one of these infrastructures may result in disruptions of governmental, industrial or public functions. Vulnerability of infrastructures therefore provides spectacular leverage for natural disasters as well as criminal and terrorist actions. Threats and risks are part of the technological, economical, and societal development. This article focuses on the development and characterization of an integrative risk-management which, from the perspective of "resilient systems", can be seen as an innovative and pro-active crisis management approach dealing with the increasing amount of complexity in societies in a comprehensive, agile and adaptive way.

Using landscape limnology to classify freshwater ecosystems for multi-ecosystem management and conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soranno, Patricia A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Bremigan, Mary T.; Wagner, Tyler; Stow, Craig A.

2010-01-01

Governmental entities are responsible for managing and conserving large numbers of lake, river, and wetland ecosystems that can be addressed only rarely on a case-by-case basis. We present a system for predictive classification modeling, grounded in the theoretical foundation of landscape limnology, that creates a tractable number of ecosystem classes to which management actions may be tailored. We demonstrate our system by applying two types of predictive classification modeling approaches to develop nutrient criteria for eutrophication management in 1998 north temperate lakes. Our predictive classification system promotes the effective management of multiple ecosystems across broad geographic scales by explicitly connecting management and conservation goals to the classification modeling approach, considering multiple spatial scales as drivers of ecosystem dynamics, and acknowledging the hierarchical structure of freshwater ecosystems. Such a system is critical for adaptive management of complex mosaics of freshwater ecosystems and for balancing competing needs for ecosystem services in a changing world.

Collaboration Across Worldviews: Managers and Scientists on Hawai'i Island Utilize Knowledge Coproduction to Facilitate Climate Change Adaptation.

PubMed

Laursen, Scott; Puniwai, Noelani; Genz, Ayesha S; Nash, Sarah A B; Canale, Lisa K; Ziegler-Chong, Sharon

2018-05-30

Complex socio-ecological issues, such as climate change have historically been addressed through technical problem solving methods. Yet today, climate science approaches are increasingly accounting for the roles of diverse social perceptions, experiences, cultural norms, and worldviews. In support of this shift, we developed a research program on Hawai'i Island that utilizes knowledge coproduction to integrate the diverse worldviews of natural and cultural resource managers, policy professionals, and researchers within actionable science products. Through their work, local field managers regularly experience discrete land and waterscapes. Additionally, in highly interconnected rural communities, such as Hawai'i Island, managers often participate in the social norms and values of communities that utilize these ecosystems. Such local manager networks offer powerful frameworks within which to co-develop and implement actionable science. We interviewed a diverse set of local managers with the aim of incorporating their perspectives into the development of a collaborative climate change research agenda that builds upon existing professional networks utilized by managers and scientists while developing new research products. We report our manager needs assessment, the development process of our climate change program, our interactive forums, and our ongoing research products. Our needs assessment showed that the managers' primary source of information were other professional colleagues, and our in-person forums informed us that local managers are very interested in interacting with a wider range of networks to build upon their management capacities. Our initial programmatic progress suggests that co-created research products and in-person forums strengthen the capacities of local managers to adapt to change.

Parameterized hardware description as object oriented hardware model implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drabik, Pawel K.

2010-09-01

The paper introduces novel model for design, visualization and management of complex, highly adaptive hardware systems. The model settles component oriented environment for both hardware modules and software application. It is developed on parameterized hardware description research. Establishment of stable link between hardware and software, as a purpose of designed and realized work, is presented. Novel programming framework model for the environment, named Graphic-Functional-Components is presented. The purpose of the paper is to present object oriented hardware modeling with mentioned features. Possible model implementation in FPGA chips and its management by object oriented software in Java is described.

Science-society collaboration for robust adaptation planning in water management - The Maipo River Basin in Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ocampo Melgar, Anahí; Vicuña, Sebastián; Gironás, Jorge

2015-04-01

The Metropolitan Region (M.R.) in Chile is populated by over 6 million people and supplied by the Maipo River and its large number of irrigation channels. Potential environmental alterations caused by global change will extremely affect managers and users of water resources in this semi-arid basin. These hydro-climatological impacts combined with demographic and economic changes will be particularly complex in the city of Santiago, due to the diverse, counterpoised and equally important existing activities and demands. These challenges and complexities request the implementation of flexible plans and actions to adapt policies, institutions, infrastructure and behaviors to a new future with climate change. Due to the inherent uncertainties in the future, a recent research project entitled MAPA (Maipo Adaptation Plan for its initials in Spanish) has formed a collaborative science-society platform to generate insights into the vulnerabilities, challenges and possible mitigation measures that would be necessary to deal with the potential changes in the M.R. This large stakeholder platform conformed by around 30 public, private and civil society organizations, both at the local and regional level and guided by a Robust Decision Making Framework (RDMF) has identified vulnerabilities, future scenarios, performance indicators and mitigation measures for the Maipo River basin. The RDMF used in this project is the XLRM framework (Lempert et al. 2006) that incorporates policy levers (L), exogenous uncertainties (X), measures of performance standards (M) and relationships (R) in an interlinked process. Both stakeholders' expertise and computational capabilities have been used to create hydrological models for the urban, rural and highland sectors supported also by the Water Evaluation and Planning system software (WEAP). The identification of uncertainties and land use transition trends was used to develop future development scenarios to explore possible water management challenges. Finally a collaborative process guided by the Water Security concept resulted in the identification of local-based performance indicators that will be used to evaluate scenarios and the need for adaptation measures. This collaborative approach has allowed capturing the general aspirations of different water users in this basin and identifying the main challenges and possible adaptation measures that will be necessary to explore if some of these scenarios become real. Furthermore, this science-society effort has formed the basis for a more extended and long-term collaboration for the implementation of adaptation measures to other unavoidable land-based changes in the Maipo river basin.

Critical Incident Stress Management (CISM) in complex systems: cultural adaptation and safety impacts in healthcare.

PubMed

Müller-Leonhardt, Alice; Mitchell, Shannon G; Vogt, Joachim; Schürmann, Tim

2014-07-01

In complex systems, such as hospitals or air traffic control operations, critical incidents (CIs) are unavoidable. These incidents can not only become critical for victims but also for professionals working at the "sharp end" who may have to deal with critical incident stress (CIS) reactions that may be severe and impede emotional, physical, cognitive and social functioning. These CIS reactions may occur not only under exceptional conditions but also during every-day work and become an important safety issue. In contrast to air traffic management (ATM) operations in Europe, which have readily adopted critical incident stress management (CISM), most hospitals have not yet implemented comprehensive peer support programs. This survey was conducted in 2010 at the only European general hospital setting which implemented CISM program since 2004. The aim of the article is to describe possible contribution of CISM in hospital settings framed from the perspective of organizational safety and individual health for healthcare professionals. Findings affirm that daily work related incidents also can become critical for healthcare professionals. Program efficiency appears to be influenced by the professional culture, as well as organizational structure and policies. Overall, findings demonstrate that the adaptation of the CISM program in general hospitals takes time but, once established, it may serve as a mechanism for changing professional culture, thereby permitting the framing of even small incidents or near misses as an opportunity to provide valuable feedback to the system. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk and Disaster Management: From Planning and Expertise to Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems.

PubMed

Benis, Arriel; Notea, Amos; Barkan, Refael

2018-01-01

"Disaster" means some surprising and misfortunate event. Its definition is broad and relates to complex environments. Medical Informatics approaches, methodologies and systems are used as a part of Disaster and Emergency Management systems. At the Holon Institute of Technology - HIT, Israel, in 2016 a National R&D Center: AFRAN was established to study the disaster's reduction aspects. The Center's designation is to investigate and produce new approaches, methodologies and to offer recommendations in the fields of disaster mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery and to disseminate disaster's knowledge. Adjoint to the Center a "Smart, Intelligent, and Adaptive Systems" laboratory (SIAS) was established with the goal to study the applications of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI) to Risk and Disaster Management (RDM). In this paper, we are redefining the concept of Disaster, pointing-out how ICT, AI, in the Big Data era, are central players in the RDM game. In addition we show the merit of the Center and lab combination to the benefit of the performed research projects.

RIACS Workshop on the Verification and Validation of Autonomous and Adaptive Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pecheur, Charles; Visser, Willem; Simmons, Reid

2001-01-01

The long-term future of space exploration at NASA is dependent on the full exploitation of autonomous and adaptive systems: careful monitoring of missions from earth, as is the norm now, will be infeasible due to the sheer number of proposed missions and the communication lag for deep-space missions. Mission managers are however worried about the reliability of these more intelligent systems. The main focus of the workshop was to address these worries and hence we invited NASA engineers working on autonomous and adaptive systems and researchers interested in the verification and validation (V&V) of software systems. The dual purpose of the meeting was to: (1) make NASA engineers aware of the V&V techniques they could be using; and (2) make the V&V community aware of the complexity of the systems NASA is developing.

Adaptive Management for Urban Watersheds: The Slavic Village Pilot Project

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management is an environmental management strategy that uses an iterative process of decision-making to reduce the uncertainty in environmental management via system monitoring. A central tenet of adaptive management is that management involves a learning process that ca...

The Influence of Daily Stressors, Severity of Behavior Problems, Uncertainty, and Coping Strategies on Family Adaptation in Families of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brien, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

The prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is rising exponentially. U.S. public health authorities report a 78% increase in ASD prevalence rate during the period (2002-2008), effecting 1 child in 50. Families of adolescents with ASD face the complex task of managing their children's transition into adulthood. Complicating this task is…

Adaptability in Crisis Management: The Role of Organizational Structure

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-06-01

individuals to make optimal decisions under constraints of high risk, uncertainty, high workload, and time pressure (see, e.g., Brehmer, 2007 ). There is...et al., 2003; Hallam & Stammers , 1981). For instance, Hallam and Stammers (1981) showed that the impact of variations in task complexity on team...each team member. FIRESCOPE, a commonly used crisis intervention plan developed in California (Office of Emergency Services, 2007 ) is a good

Complexity, Robustness, and Multistability in Network Systems with Switching Topologies: A Hierarchical Hybrid Control Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-22

sensor networks for managing power levels of wireless networks ; air and ground transportation systems for air traffic control and payload transport and... network systems, large-scale systems, adaptive control, discontinuous systems 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF...cover a broad spectrum of ap- plications including cooperative control of unmanned air vehicles, autonomous underwater vehicles, distributed sensor

Post-project appraisals in adaptive management of river channel restoration.

PubMed

Downs, Peter W; Kondolf, G Mathias

2002-04-01

Post-project appraisals (PPAs) can evaluate river restoration schemes in relation to their compliance with design, their short-term performance attainment, and their longer-term geomorphological compatibility with the catchment hydrology and sediment transport processes. PPAs provide the basis for communicating the results of one restoration scheme to another, thereby improving future restoration designs. They also supply essential performance feedback needed for adaptive management, in which management actions are treated as experiments. PPAs allow river restoration success to be defined both in terms of the scheme attaining its performance objectives and in providing a significant learning experience. Different levels of investment in PPA, in terms of pre-project data and follow-up information, bring with them different degrees of understanding and tbus different abilities to gauge both types of success. We present four case studies to illustrate how the commitment to PPA has determined the understanding achieved in each case. In Moore's Gulch (California, USA), understanding was severely constrained by the lack of pre-project data and post-implementation monitoring. Pre-project data existed for the Kitswell Brook (Hertfordshire, UK), but the monitoring consisted only of one site visit and thus the understanding achieved is related primarily to design compliance issues. The monitoring undertaken for Deep Run (Maryland, USA) and the River Idle (Nottinghamshire, UK) enabled some understanding of the short-term performance of each scheme. The transferable understanding gained from each case study is used to develop an illustrative five-fold classification of geomorphological PPAs (full, medium-term, short-term, one-shot, and remains) according to their potential as learning experiences. The learning experience is central to adaptive management but rarely articulated in the literature. Here, we gauge the potential via superimposition onto a previous schematic representation of the adaptive management process by Haney and Power (1996). Using PPAs wisely can lead to cutting-edge, complex solutions to river restoration challenges.

Do Community-based Institutions Build Resilience to Climate Change in Mongolia?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez-Gimenez, M.

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts are inherently local, yet relatively little is known about the role of local people and institutions in adapting to climate change. Mongolia has experienced one of the strongest warming trends on Earth over the past 40 years, associated declines in streamflow, and increases in the frequency of extreme winter weather events. Environmental changes are compounded by rapid political, economic and social transformations beginning in 1990. We investigate the complex interactions of social, ecological and climate changes across multiple levels from local to regional to national. We hypothesize that community-based institutions increase resilience by strengthening self-regulating feedbacks between social and ecological systems through development and enforcement of formal management rules, implementation of innovative management practices, strengthening of social networks and information exchange within and across levels of social organization, and enhanced monitoring. These result in better ecological and socio-economic conditions and greater adaptive capacity in areas under formal community-based management compared to adjacent areas without formal community management institutions. Evaluation of this hypothesis involves integrated collection and analysis of quantitative and qualitative ecological, social and hydro-climatic data at household, community and regional levels of spatial and social organization. Here, we present preliminary results evaluating these hypotheses from 10 counties (soum) in 3 provinces (aimag) in the Gobi desert-steppe of southern Mongolia based on household-level social data and plot-level ecological data representing. Our initial findings support the hypothesis that community-based institutions are associated with greater household adaptive capacity and healthier pasture ecological conditions, characterized by greater perennial vegetation cover and biomass, especially in the functional group most important for livestock production, grasses. Our results suggest that even in the Gobi desert-steppe, where inter-annual variations in climate and vegetation production are high, formal community-based management institutions may play an important role in enhancing the adaptive capacity of social-ecological systems.

Adaptive Classification of Landscape Process and Function: An Integration of Geoinformatics and Self-Organizing Maps

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Coleman, Andre M.

2009-07-17

The advanced geospatial information extraction and analysis capabilities of a Geographic Information System (GISs) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), particularly Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), provide a topology-preserving means for reducing and understanding complex data relationships in the landscape. The Adaptive Landscape Classification Procedure (ALCP) is presented as an adaptive and evolutionary capability where varying types of data can be assimilated to address different management needs such as hydrologic response, erosion potential, habitat structure, instrumentation placement, and various forecast or what-if scenarios. This paper defines how the evaluation and analysis of spatial and/or temporal patterns in the landscape can provide insight intomore » complex ecological, hydrological, climatic, and other natural and anthropogenic-influenced processes. Establishing relationships among high-dimensional datasets through neurocomputing based pattern recognition methods can help 1) resolve large volumes of data into a structured and meaningful form; 2) provide an approach for inferring landscape processes in areas that have limited data available but exhibit similar landscape characteristics; and 3) discover the value of individual variables or groups of variables that contribute to specific processes in the landscape. Classification of hydrologic patterns in the landscape is demonstrated.« less

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Treesearch

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

A case for Sandia investment in complex adaptive systems science and technology.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Colbaugh, Richard; Tsao, Jeffrey Yeenien; Johnson, Curtis Martin

2012-05-01

This white paper makes a case for Sandia National Laboratories investments in complex adaptive systems science and technology (S&T) -- investments that could enable higher-value-added and more-robustly-engineered solutions to challenges of importance to Sandia's national security mission and to the nation. Complex adaptive systems are ubiquitous in Sandia's national security mission areas. We often ignore the adaptive complexity of these systems by narrowing our 'aperture of concern' to systems or subsystems with a limited range of function exposed to a limited range of environments over limited periods of time. But by widening our aperture of concern we could increase ourmore » impact considerably. To do so, the science and technology of complex adaptive systems must mature considerably. Despite an explosion of interest outside of Sandia, however, that science and technology is still in its youth. What has been missing is contact with real (rather than model) systems and real domain-area detail. With its center-of-gravity as an engineering laboratory, Sandia's has made considerable progress applying existing science and technology to real complex adaptive systems. It has focused much less, however, on advancing the science and technology itself. But its close contact with real systems and real domain-area detail represents a powerful strength with which to help complex adaptive systems science and technology mature. Sandia is thus both a prime beneficiary of, as well as potentially a prime contributor to, complex adaptive systems science and technology. Building a productive program in complex adaptive systems science and technology at Sandia will not be trivial, but a credible path can be envisioned: in the short run, continue to apply existing science and technology to real domain-area complex adaptive systems; in the medium run, jump-start the creation of new science and technology capability through Sandia's Laboratory Directed Research and Development program; and in the long run, inculcate an awareness at the Department of Energy of the importance of supporting complex adaptive systems science through its Office of Science.« less

Science-based Forest Management in an Era of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.; Brandt, L.; Butler, P.; Handler, S.; Shannon, D.

2014-12-01

Recognizing the need to provide climate adaptation information, training, and tools to forest managers, the Forest Service joined with partners in 2009 to launch a comprehensive effort called the Climate Change Response Framework (www.forestadaptation.org). The Framework provides a structured approach to help managers integrate climate considerations into forest management plans and then implement adaptation actions on the ground. A planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook, is used in conjunction with vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit management objectives. Additionally, a training course, designed around the Adaptation Workbook, leads management organizations through this process of designing on-the-ground adaptation tactics for their management projects. The Framework is now being actively pursued in 20 states in the Northwoods, Central Hardwoods, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and New England. The Framework community includes over 100 science and management groups, dozens of whom have worked together to complete six ecoregional vulnerability assessments covering nearly 135 million acres. More than 75 forest and urban forest adaptation strategies and approaches were synthesized from peer-reviewed and gray literature, expert solicitation, and on-the-ground adaptation projects. These are being linked through the Adaptation Workbook process to on-the-ground adaptation tactics being planned and employed in more than 50 adaptation "demonstrations". This presentation will touch on the scientific and professional basis of the vulnerability assessments, and showcase efforts where adaptation actions are currently being implemented in forests.

Serious-game for water resources management adaptation training to climatic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leroy, Eve; Saulnier, Georges-Marie

2013-04-01

Water resources access is a main issue for territorial development to ensure environmental and human well-being. Indeed, sustainable development is vulnerable to water availability and climate change may affect the quantity and temporality of available water resources for anthropogenic water uses. How then to adapt, how to change water management rules and practices and how to involve stakeholders is such process? To prevent water scarcity situations, which may generate conflicts and impacts on ecosystems, it is important to think about a sustainable development where anthropogenic water uses are in good balance with forecasted water resources availability. This implies to raise awareness and involve stakeholders for a sustainable water management. Stakeholders have to think about future territorial development taking into account climate change impacts on water resources. Collaboration between scientists and stakeholders is essential to insure consistent climate change knowledge, well identification of anthropogenic uses, tensions and stakes of the territory. However sharing information on complex questions such as climate change, hydro-meteorological modeling and practical constraints may be a difficult task. Therefore to contribute to an easier debate and to the global training of all the interested actors, a serious game about water management was built. The serious game uses scientist complex models with real data but via a simple and playful web-game interface. The advantage of this interface is that it may help stakeholders, citizen or the target group to raise their understandings of impacts of climate change on water resources and to raise their awareness to the need for a sustainable water management while using state-of-the-art knowledge. The principle of the game is simple. The gamer is a mayor of a city and has to manage the water withdrawals from hydro systems, water distribution and consumption, water retreatment etc. In the same time, a clock is running and climate change occurs on the territory which impacts the water resources. The gamer has to deal with this evolution and try to help its municipality in growing. If the water management plays well the city can develop. At the opposite, wrong player decisions may generate water, energy or food scarcities, which lead the city to decrease. A first version of this game still under development was built. It makes uses of data from a famous French ski resort: Megève municipality. A demo of this game will be presented. Under a playful approach the serious game helps to discuss essential but strained topics between stakeholders, scientists and citizens. It may be considered as a useful tool for decision support and explanation of a complex topic. It is also hoped that this approach offers new ways of collaboration with stakeholders to approach complex situations in order to find the best paths for future water management.

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

Participatory adaptive management leads to environmental learning outcomes extending beyond the sphere of science.

PubMed

Fujitani, Marie; McFall, Andrew; Randler, Christoph; Arlinghaus, Robert

2017-06-01

Resolving uncertainties in managed social-ecological systems requires adaptive experimentation at whole-ecosystem levels. However, whether participatory adaptive management fosters ecological understanding among stakeholders beyond the sphere of science is unknown. We experimentally involved members of German angling clubs ( n = 181 in workshops, n = 2483 in total) engaged in self-governance of freshwater fisheries resources in a large-scale ecological experiment of active adaptive management of fish stocking, which constitutes a controversial management practice for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning when conducted inappropriately. The collaborative ecological experiments spanned several years and manipulated fish densities in 24 lakes with two species. In parallel, we experimentally compared changes in ecological knowledge and antecedents of proenvironmental behavior in stakeholders and managers who were members of a participatory adaptive management treatment group, with those receiving only a standard lecture, relative to placebo controls. Using a within-subjects pretest-posttest control design, changes in ecological knowledge, environmental beliefs, attitudes, norms, and behavioral intentions were evaluated. Participants in adaptive management retained more knowledge of ecological topics after a period of 8 months compared to those receiving a standard lecture, both relative to controls. Involvement in adaptive management was also the only treatment that altered personal norms and beliefs related to stocking. Critically, only the stakeholders who participated in adaptive management reduced their behavioral intentions to engage in fish stocking in the future. Adaptive management is essential for robust ecological knowledge, and we show that involving stakeholders in adaptive management experiments is a powerful tool to enhance ecological literacy and build environmental capacity to move toward sustainability.

Participatory adaptive management leads to environmental learning outcomes extending beyond the sphere of science

PubMed Central

Fujitani, Marie; McFall, Andrew; Randler, Christoph; Arlinghaus, Robert

2017-01-01

Resolving uncertainties in managed social-ecological systems requires adaptive experimentation at whole-ecosystem levels. However, whether participatory adaptive management fosters ecological understanding among stakeholders beyond the sphere of science is unknown. We experimentally involved members of German angling clubs (n = 181 in workshops, n = 2483 in total) engaged in self-governance of freshwater fisheries resources in a large-scale ecological experiment of active adaptive management of fish stocking, which constitutes a controversial management practice for biodiversity and ecosystem functioning when conducted inappropriately. The collaborative ecological experiments spanned several years and manipulated fish densities in 24 lakes with two species. In parallel, we experimentally compared changes in ecological knowledge and antecedents of proenvironmental behavior in stakeholders and managers who were members of a participatory adaptive management treatment group, with those receiving only a standard lecture, relative to placebo controls. Using a within-subjects pretest-posttest control design, changes in ecological knowledge, environmental beliefs, attitudes, norms, and behavioral intentions were evaluated. Participants in adaptive management retained more knowledge of ecological topics after a period of 8 months compared to those receiving a standard lecture, both relative to controls. Involvement in adaptive management was also the only treatment that altered personal norms and beliefs related to stocking. Critically, only the stakeholders who participated in adaptive management reduced their behavioral intentions to engage in fish stocking in the future. Adaptive management is essential for robust ecological knowledge, and we show that involving stakeholders in adaptive management experiments is a powerful tool to enhance ecological literacy and build environmental capacity to move toward sustainability. PMID:28630904

Adaptive Delta Management: cultural aspects of dealing with uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Hermans, Leon; Kwakkel, Jan

2016-04-01

Deltas are generally recognized as vulnerable to climate change and therefore a salient topic in adaptation science. Deltas are also highly dynamic systems viewed from physical (erosion, sedimentation, subsidence), social (demographic), economic (trade), infrastructures (transport, energy, metropolization) and cultural (multi-ethnic) perspectives. This multi-faceted dynamic character of delta areas warrants the emergence of a branch of applied adaptation science, Adaptive Delta Management, which explicitly focuses on climate adaptation of such highly dynamic and deeply uncertain systems. The application of Adaptive Delta Management in the Dutch Delta Program and its active international dissemination by Dutch professionals results in the rapid dissemination of Adaptive Delta Management to deltas worldwide. This global dissemination raises concerns among professionals in delta management on its applicability in deltas with cultural conditions and historical developments quite different from those found in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom where the practices now labelled as Adaptive Delta Management first emerged. This research develops an approach and gives a first analysis of the interaction between the characteristics of different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management and their alignment with the cultural conditions encountered in various delta's globally. In this analysis, first different management theories underlying approaches to Adaptive Delta Management as encountered in both scientific and professional publications are identified and characterized on three dimensions: The characteristics dimensions used are: orientation on today, orientation on the future, and decision making (Timmermans, 2015). The different underlying management theories encountered are policy analysis, strategic management, transition management, and adaptive management. These four management theories underlying different approaches in Adaptive Delta Management are connected to Hofstede's (1983) cultural dimensions, of which uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation are of particular relevance for our analysis. Our conclusions comment on the suitability of approaches in Adaptive Delta Management rooted in different management theories are more suitable for specific delta countries than others. The most striking conclusion is the unsuitability of rational policy analytic approaches for The Netherlands. Although surprising this conclusion finds some support in the process dominated approach taken in the Dutch Delta Program. In addition, the divergence between Vietnam, Bangladesh and Myanmar, all located in South East Asia, is striking. References Hofstede, G. (1983). The cultural relativity of organizational practices and theories. Journal of international business studies, 75-89. Jos Timmermans, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Leon Hermans, Jan Kwakkel, Martine Rutten and Wil Thissen (2015). Adaptive Delta Management: Roots and Branches, IAHR The Hague 2015.

Zoonoses, One Health and complexity: wicked problems and constructive conflict.

PubMed

Waltner-Toews, David

2017-07-19

Infectious zoonoses emerge from complex interactions among social and ecological systems. Understanding this complexity requires the accommodation of multiple, often conflicting, perspectives and narratives, rooted in different value systems and temporal-spatial scales. Therefore, to be adaptive, successful and sustainable, One Health approaches necessarily entail conflicts among observers, practitioners and scholars. Nevertheless, these integrative approaches have, both implicitly and explicitly, tended to marginalize some perspectives and prioritize others, resulting in a kind of technocratic tyranny. An important function of One Health approaches should be to facilitate and manage those conflicts, rather than to impose solutions.This article is part of the themed issue 'One Health for a changing world: zoonoses, ecosystems and human well-being'. © 2017 The Authors.

Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paukert, Craig P.; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

2016-01-01

Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

Service quality and maturity of health care organizations through the lens of Complexity Leadership Theory.

PubMed

Horvat, Ana; Filipovic, Jovan

2018-02-01

This research focuses on Complexity Leadership Theory and the relationship between leadership-examined through the lens of Complexity Leadership Theory-and organizational maturity as an indicator of the performance of health organizations. The research adopts a perspective that conceptualizes organizations as complex adaptive systems and draws upon a survey of opinion of 189 managers working in Serbian health organizations. As the results indicate a dependency between functions of leadership and levels of the maturity of health organizations, we propose a model that connects the two. The study broadens our understanding of the implications of complexity thinking and its reflection on leadership functions and overall organizational performance. The correlations between leadership functions and maturity could have practical applications in policy processing, thus improving the quality of outcomes and the overall level of service quality. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Communal Sensor Network for Adaptive Noise Reduction in Aircraft Engine Nacelles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Kennie H.; Nark, Douglas M.; Jones, Michael G.

2011-01-01

Emergent behavior, a subject of much research in biology, sociology, and economics, is a foundational element of Complex Systems Science and is apropos in the design of sensor network systems. To demonstrate engineering for emergent behavior, a novel approach in the design of a sensor/actuator network is presented maintaining optimal noise attenuation as an adaptation to changing acoustic conditions. Rather than use the conventional approach where sensors are managed by a central controller, this new paradigm uses a biomimetic model where sensor/actuators cooperate as a community of autonomous organisms, sharing with neighbors to control impedance based on local information. From the combination of all individual actions, an optimal attenuation emerges for the global system.

Climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang: a comparison between male- and female-headed households

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, W.; Ananda, M. R.; Esariti, L.; Anggraeni, M.

2018-03-01

Mainly due to its complexity, the effort to mainstream gender in addressing climate change issues has been far from the satisfying result. However, there is an urgent call to accommodate gender lens issues and to become more gender sensitive in an attempt to have an effective intervention in responding climate change impact. To enrich the reports on gender and climate change adaptation in city-based case, this paper aims to elaborate climate change adaptation in Tanjung Mas – Semarang city focusing on the gender perspective analysis in male- and female-headed households. The quantitative descriptive method is applied to carry out the analyses, including adaptive strategy and gender role analyses. The research result indicates there are not any significant differences in the climate change adaptation strategies applied in male- and female-headed households. This shows that women in the female-headed households, with their double burden, performed well in managing their roles. Therefore, in particular perspective, it may not be relevant to state that woman and female-headed households are likely to be more vulnerable compared with their counterparts.

An introduction to adaptive management for threatened and endangered species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Runge, Michael C.

2011-01-01

Management of threatened and endangered species would seem to be a perfect context for adaptive management. Many of the decisions are recurrent and plagued by uncertainty, exactly the conditions that warrant an adaptive approach. But although the potential of adaptive management in these settings has been extolled, there are limited applications in practice. The impediments to practical implementation are manifold and include semantic confusion, institutional inertia, misperceptions about the suitability and utility, and a lack of guiding examples. In this special section of the Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, we hope to reinvigorate the appropriate application of adaptive management for threatened and endangered species by framing such management in a decision-analytical context, clarifying misperceptions, classifying the types of decisions that might be amenable to an adaptive approach, and providing three fully developed case studies. In this overview paper, I define terms, review the past application of adaptive management, challenge perceived hurdles, and set the stage for the case studies which follow.

Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bubenheim, David; Potter, Christopher; Zhang, Minghua; Madsen, John

2017-01-01

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern to Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they are improving decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

Complex adaptive behavior and dexterous action

PubMed Central

Harrison, Steven J.; Stergiou, Nicholas

2016-01-01

Dexterous action, as conceptualized by Bernstein in his influential ecological analysis of human behavior, is revealed in the ability to flexibly generate behaviors that are adaptively tailored to the demands of the context in which they are embedded. Conceived as complex adaptive behavior, dexterity depends upon the qualities of robustness and degeneracy, and is supported by the functional complexity of the agent-environment system. Using Bernstein’s and Gibson’s ecological analyses of behavior situated in natural environments as conceptual touchstones, we consider the hypothesis that complex adaptive behavior capitalizes upon general principles of self-organization. Here, we outline a perspective in which the complex interactivity of nervous-system, body, and environment is revealed as an essential resource for adaptive behavior. From this perspective, we consider the implications for interpreting the functionality and dysfunctionality of human behavior. This paper demonstrates that, optimal variability, the topic of this special issue, is a logical consequence of interpreting the functionality of human behavior as complex adaptive behavior. PMID:26375932

Building Adaptive Capacity with the Delphi Method and Mediated Modeling for Water Quality and Climate Change Adaptation in Lake Champlain Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coleman, S.; Hurley, S.; Koliba, C.; Zia, A.; Exler, S.

2014-12-01

Eutrophication and nutrient pollution of surface waters occur within complex governance, social, hydrologic and biophysical basin contexts. The pervasive and perennial nutrient pollution in Lake Champlain Basin, despite decades of efforts, exemplifies problems found across the world's surface waters. Stakeholders with diverse values, interests, and forms of explicit and tacit knowledge determine water quality impacts through land use, agricultural and water resource decisions. Uncertainty, ambiguity and dynamic feedback further complicate the ability to promote the continual provision of water quality and ecosystem services. Adaptive management of water resources and land use requires mechanisms to allow for learning and integration of new information over time. The transdisciplinary Research on Adaptation to Climate Change (RACC) team is working to build regional adaptive capacity in Lake Champlain Basin while studying and integrating governance, land use, hydrological, and biophysical systems to evaluate implications for adaptive management. The RACC team has engaged stakeholders through mediated modeling workshops, online forums, surveys, focus groups and interviews. In March 2014, CSS2CC.org, an interactive online forum to source and identify adaptive interventions from a group of stakeholders across sectors was launched. The forum, based on the Delphi Method, brings forward the collective wisdom of stakeholders and experts to identify potential interventions and governance designs in response to scientific uncertainty and ambiguity surrounding the effectiveness of any strategy, climate change impacts, and the social and natural systems governing water quality and eutrophication. A Mediated Modeling Workshop followed the forum in May 2014, where participants refined and identified plausible interventions under different governance, policy and resource scenarios. Results from the online forum and workshop can identify emerging consensus across scales and sectors and be simulated in adaptation scenarios within integrated models. Comparing interventions and scenarios to existing and planned policy and governance systems in Lake Champlain Basin allows for new feedback to build adaptive capacity to identify key leverage points in the coupled natural and human system.

Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

2010-11-01

The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on computer confirm the feasibility of this approach. Hence, functional differential equations with both retardation and anticipation are found to be useful tools for modelling financial systems.

Higher rates of sex evolve during adaptation to more complex environments

PubMed Central

Luijckx, Pepijn; Ho, Eddie Ka Ho; Gasim, Majid; Chen, Suyang; Stanic, Andrijana; Yanchus, Connor; Kim, Yun Seong; Agrawal, Aneil F.

2017-01-01

A leading hypothesis for the evolutionary maintenance of sexual reproduction proposes that sex is advantageous because it facilitates adaptation. Changes in the environment stimulate adaptation but not all changes are equivalent; a change may occur along one or multiple environmental dimensions. In two evolution experiments with the facultatively sexual rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, we test how environmental complexity affects the evolution of sex by adapting replicate populations to various environments that differ from the original along one, two, or three environmental dimensions. Three different estimates of fitness (growth, lifetime reproduction, and population density) confirmed that populations adapted to their new environment. Growth measures revealed an intriguing cost of complex adaptations: populations that adapted to more complex environments lost greater amounts of fitness in the original environment. Furthermore, both experiments showed that B. calyciflorus became more sexual when adapting to a greater number of environmental dimensions. Common garden experiments confirmed that observed changes in sex were heritable. As environments in nature are inherently complex these findings help explain why sex is maintained in natural populations. PMID:28053226

Higher rates of sex evolve during adaptation to more complex environments.

PubMed

Luijckx, Pepijn; Ho, Eddie Ka Ho; Gasim, Majid; Chen, Suyang; Stanic, Andrijana; Yanchus, Connor; Kim, Yun Seong; Agrawal, Aneil F

2017-01-17

A leading hypothesis for the evolutionary maintenance of sexual reproduction proposes that sex is advantageous because it facilitates adaptation. Changes in the environment stimulate adaptation but not all changes are equivalent; a change may occur along one or multiple environmental dimensions. In two evolution experiments with the facultatively sexual rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, we test how environmental complexity affects the evolution of sex by adapting replicate populations to various environments that differ from the original along one, two, or three environmental dimensions. Three different estimates of fitness (growth, lifetime reproduction, and population density) confirmed that populations adapted to their new environment. Growth measures revealed an intriguing cost of complex adaptations: populations that adapted to more complex environments lost greater amounts of fitness in the original environment. Furthermore, both experiments showed that B. calyciflorus became more sexual when adapting to a greater number of environmental dimensions. Common garden experiments confirmed that observed changes in sex were heritable. As environments in nature are inherently complex these findings help explain why sex is maintained in natural populations.

Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world-The Roskilde recommendations.

PubMed

Selck, Henriette; Adamsen, Peter B; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary T; Bruce, Peter K H; Burton, G Allen; Butts, Michael B; Boegh, Eva; Clague, John J; Dinh, Khuong V; Doorn, Neelke; Gunnarsson, Jonas S; Hauggaard-Nielsen, Henrik; Hazlerigg, Charles; Hunka, Agnieszka D; Jensen, John; Lin, Yan; Loureiro, Susana; Miraglia, Simona; Munns, Wayne R; Nadim, Farrokh; Palmqvist, Annemette; Rämö, Robert A; Seaby, Lauren P; Syberg, Kristian; Tangaa, Stine R; Thit, Amalie; Windfeld, Ronja; Zalewski, Maciej; Chapman, Peter M

2017-01-01

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk-Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological context for assessments in human-modified systems; 8) assess risks and benefits to humans and the ecosystem and consider unintended consequences of management actions; 9) avoid excessive conservatism or possible underprotection resulting from sole reliance on binary, numerical benchmarks; and 10) develop adaptive risk-management and regulatory goals based on ranges of uncertainty. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:7-16. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

The Invasive Species Forecasting System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schnase, John; Most, Neal; Gill, Roger; Ma, Peter

2011-01-01

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) provides computational support for the generic work processes found in many regional-scale ecosystem modeling applications. Decision support tools built using ISFS allow a user to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of management concern, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. This type of decision product helps resource managers plan invasive species protection, monitoring, and control strategies for the lands they manage. Until now, scientists and resource managers have lacked the data-assembly and computing capabilities to produce these maps quickly and cost efficiently. ISFS focuses on regional-scale habitat suitability modeling for invasive terrestrial plants. ISFS s component architecture emphasizes simplicity and adaptability. Its core services can be easily adapted to produce model-based decision support tools tailored to particular parks, monuments, forests, refuges, and related management units. ISFS can be used to build standalone run-time tools that require no connection to the Internet, as well as fully Internet-based decision support applications. ISFS provides the core data structures, operating system interfaces, network interfaces, and inter-component constraints comprising the canonical workflow for habitat suitability modeling. The predictors, analysis methods, and geographic extents involved in any particular model run are elements of the user space and arbitrarily configurable by the user. ISFS provides small, lightweight, readily hardened core components of general utility. These components can be adapted to unanticipated uses, are tailorable, and require at most a loosely coupled, nonproprietary connection to the Web. Users can invoke capabilities from a command line; programmers can integrate ISFS's core components into more complex systems and services. Taken together, these features enable a degree of decentralization and distributed ownership that have helped other types of scientific information services succeed in recent years.

Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in biodiversity hotspots. Results also quantify the conflicts between food and water security, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation.

PM2006: a highly scalable urban planning management information system--Case study: Suzhou Urban Planning Bureau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jing, Changfeng; Liang, Song; Ruan, Yong; Huang, Jie

2008-10-01

During the urbanization process, when facing complex requirements of city development, ever-growing urban data, rapid development of planning business and increasing planning complexity, a scalable, extensible urban planning management information system is needed urgently. PM2006 is such a system that can deal with these problems. In response to the status and problems in urban planning, the scalability and extensibility of PM2006 are introduced which can be seen as business-oriented workflow extensibility, scalability of DLL-based architecture, flexibility on platforms of GIS and database, scalability of data updating and maintenance and so on. It is verified that PM2006 system has good extensibility and scalability which can meet the requirements of all levels of administrative divisions and can adapt to ever-growing changes in urban planning business. At the end of this paper, the application of PM2006 in Urban Planning Bureau of Suzhou city is described.

Research Priorities for School Nursing in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

PubMed

Al-Yateem, Nabeel; Docherty, Charles; Brenner, Maria; Alhosany, Jameela; Altawil, Hanan; Al-Tamimi, Muna

2017-10-01

School nurses are challenged with more children having complex conditions, who are now surviving into school age. This is paralleled by a shift in focus of health systems toward primary care, and national efforts to develop the health-care services, especially those offered to vulnerable populations. Being at the forefront of this change, school nurses in United Arab Emirates (UAE) are finding themselves under pressure to adapt to and facilitate these changes both by improving their practice and by contributing to its underpinning evidence. A cross-sectional design was used in this study in which 370 school nurses participated, identifying 11 research priorities. The three most important, as ranked by participants, were management of children with complex health-care needs; nutrition, obesity, and lifestyle issues of schoolchildren; and managing illnesses, injuries, and emergencies in schools and provision of medical support. These priorities should direct future research activities in the field.

Toward a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Shouhuai

2010-04-01

Cyberspace is an indispensable part of the economy and society, but has been "polluted" with many compromised computers that can be abused to launch further attacks against the others. Since it is likely that there always are compromised computers, it is important to be aware of the (dynamic) cyber security-related situation, which is however challenging because cyberspace is an extremely large-scale complex system. Our project aims to investigate a theoretical framework for trustworthy cyber sensing. With the perspective of treating cyberspace as a large-scale complex system, the core question we aim to address is: What would be a competent theoretical (mathematical and algorithmic) framework for designing, analyzing, deploying, managing, and adapting cyber sensor systems so as to provide trustworthy information or input to the higher layer of cyber situation-awareness management, even in the presence of sophisticated malicious attacks against the cyber sensor systems?

Changes in the cardiac rehabilitation workflow process needed for the implementation of a self-management system.

PubMed

Wiggers, Anne-Marieke; Vosbergen, Sandra; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik; Jaspers, Monique; Peek, Niels

2013-01-01

E-health interventions are of a growing importance for self-management of chronic conditions. This study aimed to describe the process adaptions that are needed in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) to implement a self-management system, called MyCARDSS. We created a generic workflow model based on interviews and observations at three CR clinics. Subsequently, a workflow model of the ideal situation after implementation of MyCARDSS was created. We found that the implementation will increase the complexity of existing working procedures because 1) not all patients will use MyCARDSS, 2) there is a transfer of tasks and responsibilities from professionals to patients, and 3) information in MyCARDSS needs to be synchronized with the EPR system for professionals.

A Hybrid Stochastic-Neuro-Fuzzy Model-Based System for In-Flight Gas Turbine Engine Diagnostics

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-04-05

Margin (ADM) and (ii) Fault Detection Margin (FDM). Key Words: ANFIS, Engine Health Monitoring , Gas Path Analysis, and Stochastic Analysis Adaptive Network...The paper illustrates the application of a hybrid Stochastic- Fuzzy -Inference Model-Based System (StoFIS) to fault diagnostics and prognostics for both...operational history monitored on-line by the engine health management (EHM) system. To capture the complex functional relationships between different

Increase in Testing Efficiency through the Development of an IT-Based Adaptive Testing Tool for Competency Measurement Applied to a Health Worker Training Test Case

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kleinhans, Janne; Schumann, Matthias

2015-01-01

In the context of education and training, competency measurement (CM) is a central challenge in competency management. For complex CMs, a compromise must be addressed between the time available and the number of dimensions to be measured or the quality of the measurements. Increasing the efficiency of existing tests for CMs therefore poses a key…

Adapting Tropical Forest Policy and Practice in the Context of the Anthropocene: Opportunities and Challenges for the El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

Kathleen McGinley

2017-01-01

Tropical forest management increasingly is challenged by multiple, complex, intersecting, and in many cases unprecedented changes in the environment that are triggered by human activity. Many of these changes are associated with the Anthropocene—a new geologic epoch in which humans have become a dominating factor in shaping the biosphere. Ultimately, as human activity...

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban water catchment in Singapore. Ingredients of this approach are: (a) transient scenarios (time series of various uncertain developments such as climate change, economic developments, societal changes), (b) a methodology for exploring many options and sequences of these options across different futures, and (c) a stepwise policy analysis. The strategy is applied on case of flexible deployment of novel, so-called Next Generation Infrastructure, and assessed in context of the proposed. Results of the study show that flexible design alternatives deliver much enhanced performance compared to systems optimized under deterministic forecasts of the future. The work also demonstrates that explicit incorporation of uncertainty and flexibility into decision-making process reduces capital expenditures while allowing decision makers to learn about system evolution throughout the lifetime of the project.

76 FR 70751 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-11-15

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

76 FR 52345 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-22

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

75 FR 17158 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-05

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

76 FR 14044 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-15

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

75 FR 70947 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-11-19

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

76 FR 23621 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-04-27

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

75 FR 10501 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-03-08

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

76 FR 34248 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-06-13

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

75 FR 51284 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-08-19

...] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California) restoration...

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Early decision framework for integrating sustainable risk management for complex remediation sites: Drivers, barriers, and performance metrics.

PubMed

Harclerode, Melissa A; Macbeth, Tamzen W; Miller, Michael E; Gurr, Christopher J; Myers, Teri S

2016-12-15

As the environmental remediation industry matures, remaining sites often have significant underlying technical challenges and financial constraints. More often than not, significant remediation efforts at these "complex" sites have not achieved stringent, promulgated cleanup goals. Decisions then have to be made about whether and how to commit additional resources towards achieving those goals, which are often not achievable nor required to protect receptors. Guidance on cleanup approaches focused on evaluating and managing site-specific conditions and risks, rather than uniformly meeting contaminant cleanup criteria in all media, is available to aid in this decision. Although these risk-based cleanup approaches, such as alternative endpoints and adaptive management strategies, have been developed, they are under-utilized due to environmental, socio-economic, and risk perception barriers. Also, these approaches are usually implemented late in the project life cycle after unsuccessful remedial attempts to achieve stringent cleanup criteria. In this article, we address these barriers by developing an early decision framework to identify if site characteristics support sustainable risk management, and develop performance metrics and tools to evaluate and implement successful risk-based cleanup approaches. In addition, we address uncertainty and risk perception challenges by aligning risk-based cleanup approaches with the concepts of risk management and sustainable remediation. This approach was developed in the context of lessons learned from implementing remediation at complex sites, but as a framework can, and should, be applied to all sites undergoing remediation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive evolution of complex innovations through stepwise metabolic niche expansion.

PubMed

Szappanos, Balázs; Fritzemeier, Jonathan; Csörgő, Bálint; Lázár, Viktória; Lu, Xiaowen; Fekete, Gergely; Bálint, Balázs; Herczeg, Róbert; Nagy, István; Notebaart, Richard A; Lercher, Martin J; Pál, Csaba; Papp, Balázs

2016-05-20

A central challenge in evolutionary biology concerns the mechanisms by which complex metabolic innovations requiring multiple mutations arise. Here, we propose that metabolic innovations accessible through the addition of a single reaction serve as stepping stones towards the later establishment of complex metabolic features in another environment. We demonstrate the feasibility of this hypothesis through three complementary analyses. First, using genome-scale metabolic modelling, we show that complex metabolic innovations in Escherichia coli can arise via changing nutrient conditions. Second, using phylogenetic approaches, we demonstrate that the acquisition patterns of complex metabolic pathways during the evolutionary history of bacterial genomes support the hypothesis. Third, we show how adaptation of laboratory populations of E. coli to one carbon source facilitates the later adaptation to another carbon source. Our work demonstrates how complex innovations can evolve through series of adaptive steps without the need to invoke non-adaptive processes.

Adaptive evolution of complex innovations through stepwise metabolic niche expansion

PubMed Central

Szappanos, Balázs; Fritzemeier, Jonathan; Csörgő, Bálint; Lázár, Viktória; Lu, Xiaowen; Fekete, Gergely; Bálint, Balázs; Herczeg, Róbert; Nagy, István; Notebaart, Richard A.; Lercher, Martin J.; Pál, Csaba; Papp, Balázs

2016-01-01

A central challenge in evolutionary biology concerns the mechanisms by which complex metabolic innovations requiring multiple mutations arise. Here, we propose that metabolic innovations accessible through the addition of a single reaction serve as stepping stones towards the later establishment of complex metabolic features in another environment. We demonstrate the feasibility of this hypothesis through three complementary analyses. First, using genome-scale metabolic modelling, we show that complex metabolic innovations in Escherichia coli can arise via changing nutrient conditions. Second, using phylogenetic approaches, we demonstrate that the acquisition patterns of complex metabolic pathways during the evolutionary history of bacterial genomes support the hypothesis. Third, we show how adaptation of laboratory populations of E. coli to one carbon source facilitates the later adaptation to another carbon source. Our work demonstrates how complex innovations can evolve through series of adaptive steps without the need to invoke non-adaptive processes. PMID:27197754

Investigating Work and Learning through Complex Adaptive Organisations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lizier, Amanda Louise

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline an empirical study of how professionals experience work and learning in complex adaptive organisations. The study uses a complex adaptive systems approach, which forms the basis of a specifically developed conceptual framework for explaining professionals' experiences of work and learning.…

Adaptive ecosystem management in the Pacific Northwest.

Treesearch

B.T. Bormann; P.G. Cunningham; M.H. Brookes; V.W. Manning; M.W. Collopy

1994-01-01

A systematic approach to adaptive management is proposed to simultaneously manage at the regional, provincial, and watershed scales and to reorganize the activity of agencies to better support the concepts of adaptive management. Reorganizing management activities into these four groupings is recommended: adjustment (expanded decisionmaking); linked, not single actions...

The needs of salmon and steelhead in balancing their conservation and use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burger, Carl V.; Knudsen, E. Eric; Steward, Cleveland R.; MacDonald, Donald D.; Williams, Jack E.; Reiser, Dudley W.

1999-01-01

Over the past 100 years, Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead trout O. mykiss populations in the Pacific Northwest have experienced dramatic declines as a result of human population growth and associated development of the region's natural resources. Any strategy to reverse those declines will depend on achieving consensus among a diverse group of stakeholders willing to (1) restore damaged habitats and watersheds; (2) consider the biological needs of salmonid fishes; and (3) understand, conserve, and manage existing levels of biodiversity within an ecosystem context. The objective of this chapter is to review and summarize the needs of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout from perspectives that promote their sustainability and perpetuity, and, within that context, provide a framework, for the development of a sustainable fisheries strategy. Although volumes of information are available on the life histories and habitat requirements of Pacific salmonids, new concepts have begun to address the importance of habitat complexity, genetic diversity among locally adapted populations, and the need for appropriate units of conservation. Habitat variability and complexity are the templates that produce diverse, locally adapted populations of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. Molded by conditions in the environments they colonized, salmon and steelhead have unique adaptations they may have taken hundred i?? perhaps thousands i?? of years to evolve. Any strategy to reverse the declines of salmon and steelhead must focus on conserving both current levels of genetic diversity as well as restoration and maintenance of habitats compatible with the specific needs of individual populations. An argument can be made that we know enough already about the needs of our salmon and steelhead to allow us to make appropriate decisions. There is strong need to integrate what we know about local salmonid adaptations and habitat needs with conservation and management strategies that address the problems we have created. It may be possible to have healthy, sustainable salmonid populations coastwide if we do not wait too long to make up our minds.

Cyclone preparedness and response: an analysis of lessons identified using an adapted military planning framework.

PubMed

Tatham, Peter; Oloruntoba, Richard; Spens, Karen

2012-01-01

The United Kingdom uses the Defence Lines of Development (DLOD) framework to analyse and understand the key components and costs of a military capability. Rooted in the Resource Based View (RBV) of a firm, an adapted DLOD approach is employed to explore, analyse and discuss the preparedness, planning and response strategies of two markedly different countries (Australia and Bangladesh) when faced with a major cyclone event of a comparable size. Given the numerous similarities in the challenges facing military forces in a complex emergency and humanitarian agencies in a natural disaster, the paper demonstrates the applicability of the DLOD framework as an analysis and planning tool in the cyclone preparedness planning and response phases, and more broadly within the disaster management area. In addition, the paper highlights the benefit to disaster managers, policymakers and researchers of exploiting comparative cross-learning opportunities from disaster events, drawn from different sectors and countries. © 2012 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

Complexity and network dynamics in physiological adaptation: an integrated view.

PubMed

Baffy, György; Loscalzo, Joseph

2014-05-28

Living organisms constantly interact with their surroundings and sustain internal stability against perturbations. This dynamic process follows three fundamental strategies (restore, explore, and abandon) articulated in historical concepts of physiological adaptation such as homeostasis, allostasis, and the general adaptation syndrome. These strategies correspond to elementary forms of behavior (ordered, chaotic, and static) in complex adaptive systems and invite a network-based analysis of the operational characteristics, allowing us to propose an integrated framework of physiological adaptation from a complex network perspective. Applicability of this concept is illustrated by analyzing molecular and cellular mechanisms of adaptation in response to the pervasive challenge of obesity, a chronic condition resulting from sustained nutrient excess that prompts chaotic exploration for system stability associated with tradeoffs and a risk of adverse outcomes such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Deconstruction of this complexity holds the promise of gaining novel insights into physiological adaptation in health and disease. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

PubMed

Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

2016-12-01

Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

50 CFR 217.88 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is notified that... that modifications are appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations...) Adaptive Management—NMFS may modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after...

50 CFR 217.88 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is notified that... that modifications are appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations...) Adaptive Management—NMFS may modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after...

50 CFR 217.88 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is notified that... that modifications are appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations...) Adaptive Management—NMFS may modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after...

Oral health assessment and mouth care for children and young people receiving palliative care. Part one.

PubMed

Sargeant, Stephanie; Chamley, Carol

2013-03-01

This is the first part of two articles exploring oral health problems and treatments for children receiving palliative care, successful management of which can improve considerably the quality of life for this group of children and young people. Part one includes an adapted oral health assessment tool for use in children and young people with complex and palliative healthcare needs that has the potential to help nurses identify and monitor oral health problems and prevent or minimise oral problems from developing. Part two--to be published next month--focuses on basic oral hygiene and the management of specific oral health problems.

Mercury Remediation Technology Development for Lower East Fork Poplar Creek - FY 2016 Progress Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dickson, Johnbull O.; Smith, John G.; Mehlhorn, Tonia L.

2017-07-01

Mercury remediation is a high priority for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management (OREM), especially at and near the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) where historical mercury use has resulted in contaminated buildings, soils, and downstream surface waters. To address mercury contamination of East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC), the DOE has adopted a phased, adaptive management approach to remediation, which includes mercury treatment actions at Y-12 in the short-term and research and technology development (TD) to evaluate longer-term solutions in the downstream environment (US Department of Energy 2014).

Just-in-time adaptive classifiers-part II: designing the classifier.

PubMed

Alippi, Cesare; Roveri, Manuel

2008-12-01

Aging effects, environmental changes, thermal drifts, and soft and hard faults affect physical systems by changing their nature and behavior over time. To cope with a process evolution adaptive solutions must be envisaged to track its dynamics; in this direction, adaptive classifiers are generally designed by assuming the stationary hypothesis for the process generating the data with very few results addressing nonstationary environments. This paper proposes a methodology based on k-nearest neighbor (NN) classifiers for designing adaptive classification systems able to react to changing conditions just-in-time (JIT), i.e., exactly when it is needed. k-NN classifiers have been selected for their computational-free training phase, the possibility to easily estimate the model complexity k and keep under control the computational complexity of the classifier through suitable data reduction mechanisms. A JIT classifier requires a temporal detection of a (possible) process deviation (aspect tackled in a companion paper) followed by an adaptive management of the knowledge base (KB) of the classifier to cope with the process change. The novelty of the proposed approach resides in the general framework supporting the real-time update of the KB of the classification system in response to novel information coming from the process both in stationary conditions (accuracy improvement) and in nonstationary ones (process tracking) and in providing a suitable estimate of k. It is shown that the classification system grants consistency once the change targets the process generating the data in a new stationary state, as it is the case in many real applications.

Lessons Learned from the First Decade of Adaptive Management in Comprehensive Everglades Restoration

EPA Science Inventory

Although few successful examples of large-scale adaptive management applications are available to ecosystem restoration scientists and managers, examining where and how the components of an adaptive management program have been successfully implemented yields insight into what ...

Adaptive Management of Social-Ecological Systems: The Path Forward

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management remains at the forefront of environmental management nearly 40 years after its original conception, largely because we have yet to develop other methodologies that offer the same promise. Despite the criticisms of adaptive management and the numerous failed at...

Deriving empirical benchmarks from existing monitoring datasets for rangeland adaptive management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Under adaptive management, goals and decisions for managing rangeland resources are shaped by requirements like the Bureau of Land Management’s (BLM’s) Land Health Standards, which specify desired conditions. Without formalized, quantitative benchmarks for triggering management actions, adaptive man...

77 FR 50155 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-20

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California...

77 FR 45370 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-07-31

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California...

77 FR 30314 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-22

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California...

77 FR 10766 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-02-23

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California...

77 FR 74203 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-13

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group AGENCY: Fish and Wildlife Service, Interior. ACTION: Notice of meeting. SUMMARY: The Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG) affords stakeholders the opportunity to give policy, management, and technical input concerning Trinity River (California...

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

PubMed

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive management: good business or good buzzwords?

Treesearch

Sally Duncan

1998-01-01

Adaptive management is a fusion of science and managment used to improve and care for natural resources. This issue of "Science Findings" centers on how this type of management is used to tame wildfire incidents in northeastern Oregon's Blue Mountain range.The following article considers how adaptive management is being used by the La Grande,...

Questions regarding the predictive value of one evolved complex adaptive system for a second: exemplified by the SOD1 mouse.

PubMed

Greek, Ray; Hansen, Lawrence A

2013-11-01

We surveyed the scientific literature regarding amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, the SOD1 mouse model, complex adaptive systems, evolution, drug development, animal models, and philosophy of science in an attempt to analyze the SOD1 mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in the context of evolved complex adaptive systems. Humans and animals are examples of evolved complex adaptive systems. It is difficult to predict the outcome from perturbations to such systems because of the characteristics of complex systems. Modeling even one complex adaptive system in order to predict outcomes from perturbations is difficult. Predicting outcomes to one evolved complex adaptive system based on outcomes from a second, especially when the perturbation occurs at higher levels of organization, is even more problematic. Using animal models to predict human outcomes to perturbations such as disease and drugs should have a very low predictive value. We present empirical evidence confirming this and suggest a theory to explain this phenomenon. We analyze the SOD1 mouse model of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in order to illustrate this position. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Adaptive Management Using Remote Sensing and Ecosystem Modeling in Response to Climate Variability and Invasive Aquatic Plants for the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Water Resource

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bubenheim, D.; Potter, C. S.; Zhang, M.; Madsen, J.

2017-12-01

The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply and supports important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in Northern and Southern California. Expansion of invasive aquatic plants in the Delta coupled with impacts of changing climate and long-term drought is detrimental to the San Francisco Bay/California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center and the USDA-ARS partnered with the State of California to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plant management in the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Specific mapping tools developed utilizing satellite and airborne platforms provide regular assessments of population dynamics on a landscape scale and support both strategic planning and operational decision making for resource managers. San Joaquin and Sacramento River watersheds water quality input to the Delta is modeled using the Soil-Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and a modified SWAT tool has been customized to account for unique landscape and management of agricultural water supply and drainage within the Delta. Environmental response models for growth of invasive aquatic weeds are being parameterized and coupled with spatial distribution/biomass density mapping and water quality to study ecosystem response to climate and aquatic plant management practices. On the water validation and operational utilization of these tools by management agencies and how they improve decision making, management effectiveness and efficiency will be discussed. The project combines science, operations, and economics related to integrated management scenarios for aquatic weeds to help land and water resource managers make science-informed decisions regarding management and outcomes.

Experimenting Design and Implementation of an Educational Services Management System Based on ISO/IEC 20000 Standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lezcano, Jean-Marc; Adachihara, Hatsuo; Prunier, Marc

European higher education organizations are encouraged to implement quality management practices. Existing quality standards and frameworks do not capitalize an important set of best practices addressing educational services delivery. The ISO/IEC 20000 standard, elaborated from IT service management issues, is widening its field of application and may represent an interesting alternative. A specific approach is needed to apprehend the particular nature of educational services, consider the systemic cooperating roles of educational system and learning system, and define ISO/IEC 20000 vocabulary and concepts adapted to the domain. ISO/IEC 20000 may provide an answer to European Standard Guideline compliance and improve educational services management. The current experimentation is expected to cast light on the complexity, practicality and effectiveness of the use of ISO/IEC 20000 in a first field of "non IT" services.

Complex Adaptive Schools: Educational Leadership and School Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kershner, Brad; McQuillan, Patrick

2016-01-01

This paper utilizes the theoretical framework of complexity theory to compare and contrast leadership and educational change in two urban schools. Drawing on the notion of a complex adaptive system--an interdependent network of interacting elements that learns and evolves in adapting to an ever-shifting context--our case studies seek to reveal the…

Position-based dynamic of a particle system: a configurable algorithm to describe complex behaviour of continuum material starting from swarm robotics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

dell'Erba, Ramiro

2018-04-01

In a previous work, we considered a two-dimensional lattice of particles and calculated its time evolution by using an interaction law based on the spatial position of the particles themselves. The model reproduced the behaviour of deformable bodies both according to the standard Cauchy model and second gradient theory; this success led us to use this method in more complex cases. This work is intended as the natural evolution of the previous one in which we shall consider both energy aspects, coherence with the principle of Saint Venant and we start to manage a more general tool that can be adapted to different physical phenomena, supporting complex effects like lateral contraction, anisotropy or elastoplasticity.

Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Adaptive silviculture for climate change: a national experiment in manager-scientist partnerships to apply an adaptation framework

Treesearch

Linda M. ​Nagel; Brian J. Palik; Michael A. Battaglia; Anthony W. D' Amato; James M. Guldin; Chris Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak; Matthew P. Powers; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; David L. Peterson; Lisa M. Ganio; Chad Kirschbaum; Molly R. Roske

2017-01-01

Forest managers in the United States must respond to the need for climate-adaptive strategies in the face of observed and projected climatic changes. However, there is a lack of on-the-ground forest adaptation research to indicate what adaptation measures or tactics might be effective in preparing forest ecosystems to deal with climate change. Natural resource managers...

A structured interface to the object-oriented genomics unified schema for XML-formatted data.

PubMed

Clark, Terry; Jurek, Josef; Kettler, Gregory; Preuss, Daphe

2005-01-01

Data management systems are fast becoming required components in many biology laboratories as the role of computer-based information grows. Although the need for data management systems is on the rise, their inherent complexities can deter the full and routine use of their computational capabilities. The significant undertaking to implement a capable production system can be reduced in part by adapting an established data management system. In such a way, we are leveraging the Genomics Unified Schema (GUS) developed at the Computational Biology and Informatics Laboratory at the University of Pennsylvania as a foundation for managing and analysing DNA sequence data in centromere research projects around Arabidopsis thaliana and related species. Because GUS provides a core schema that includes support for genome sequences, mRNA and its expression, and annotated chromosomes, it is ideal for synthesising a variety of parameters to analyse these repetitive and highly dynamic portions of the genome. Despite this, production-strength data management frameworks are complex, requiring dedicated efforts to adapt and maintain. The work reported in this article addresses one component of such an effort, namely the pivotal task of marshalling data from various sources into GUS. In order to harness GUS for our project, and motivated by efficiency needs, we developed a structured framework for transferring data into GUS from outside sources. This technology is embodied in a GUS object-layer processor, XMLGUS. XMLGUS facilitates incorporating data into GUS by (i) formulating an XML interface that includes relational database key constraint definitions, (ii) regularising traversal through that XML, (iii) realising automatic processing of the XML with database key constraints and (iv) allowing for special processing of input data within the framework for automated processing. The application of XMLGUS to production pipeline processing for a sequencing project and inputting the Arabidopsis genome into GUS is discussed. XMLGUS is available from the Flora website (http://flora.ittc.ku.edu/).

Transmission models and management of lymphatic filariasis elimination.

PubMed

Michael, Edwin; Gambhir, Manoj

2010-01-01

The planning and evaluation of parasitic control programmes are complicated by the many interacting population dynamic and programmatic factors that determine infection trends under different control options. A key need is quantification about the status of the parasite system state at any one given timepoint and the dynamic change brought upon that state as an intervention program proceeds. Here, we focus on the control and elimination of the vector-borne disease, lymphatic filariasis, to show how mathematical models of parasite transmission can provide a quantitative framework for aiding the design of parasite elimination and monitoring programs by their ability to support (1) conducting rational analysis and definition of endpoints for different programmatic aims or objectives, including transmission endpoints for disease elimination, (2) undertaking strategic analysis to aid the optimal design of intervention programs to meet set endpoints under different endemic settings and (3) providing support for performing informed evaluations of ongoing programs, including aiding the formation of timely adaptive management strategies to correct for any observed deficiencies in program effectiveness. The results also highlight how the use of a model-based framework will be critical to addressing the impacts of ecological complexities, heterogeneities and uncertainties on effective parasite management and thereby guiding the development of strategies to resolve and overcome such real-world complexities. In particular, we underscore how this approach can provide a link between ecological science and policy by revealing novel tools and measures to appraise and enhance the biological controllability or eradicability of parasitic diseases. We conclude by emphasizing an urgent need to develop and apply flexible adaptive management frameworks informed by mathematical models that are based on learning and reducing uncertainty using monitoring data, apply phased or sequential decision-making to address extant uncertainty and focus on developing ecologically resilient management strategies, in ongoing efforts to control or eliminate filariasis and other parasitic diseases in resource-poor communities.

Dictating participation? Rethinking the adaptive co-management of socio-ecological systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El Vilaly, Audra; Abd salam El Vilaly, Mohamed

2015-04-01

In the face of environmental change, enhancing adaptive capacity relies on stakeholder engagement. But the participatory process, while critical to the translation, transfer, and application of scientific knowledge to society, is not without its own contradictions. These include the asymmetrical relations of power that prevail between environmental scientists, managers, and local users; discrepant understandings of knowledge and its appropriate uses; and conflicting social, economic, and ecological values, to name only a few. Our research examines five major transboundary river basin organizations in West Africa and their efforts to improve adaptive basin management via stakeholder collaboration. In particular, we evaluate the participatory strategies of these organizations to measure non-linear, multi-directional feedbacks between the social and biophysical factors of land use/land cover change, as well as the impacts of this change on basins and their dependent populations. Our research suggests that oftentimes, these methods paradoxically produce a hierarchical and marginalizing effect on local stakeholders in relation to the scientists that study them. In seeking to address these limitations, we assess the potential costs and benefits of integrating select components of a Participatory Action Research (PAR) framework (see, for example, Reason & Bradbury-Huang, 2007) into studies of complex socio-ecological problems. This approach, used widely in the social sciences, promotes critical reflection on and minimization of the power inequities inherent in science-society collaborations. It instead favors more horizontal forms of knowledge co-production that support and foster the expansion of local, existing movements for social and environmental justice. A PAR framework may therefore improve the efficiency, sustainability, and equitability of land-based adaptation to environmental change; further research is thus recommended to test this hypothesis. References: Reason, P. & Bradbury-Huang, H. (2007). Handbook of Action Research: Participative Inquiry and Practice, London, Sage.

Integrating science into management of ecosystems in the Greater Blue Mountains.

PubMed

Chapple, Rosalie S; Ramp, Daniel; Bradstock, Ross A; Kingsford, Richard T; Merson, John A; Auld, Tony D; Fleming, Peter J S; Mulley, Robert C

2011-10-01

Effective management of large protected conservation areas is challenged by political, institutional and environmental complexity and inconsistency. Knowledge generation and its uptake into management are crucial to address these challenges. We reflect on practice at the interface between science and management of the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area (GBMWHA), which covers approximately 1 million hectares west of Sydney, Australia. Multiple government agencies and other stakeholders are involved in its management, and decision-making is confounded by numerous plans of management and competing values and goals, reflecting the different objectives and responsibilities of stakeholders. To highlight the complexities of the decision-making process for this large area, we draw on the outcomes of a recent collaborative research project and focus on fire regimes and wild-dog control as examples of how existing knowledge is integrated into management. The collaborative research project achieved the objectives of collating and synthesizing biological data for the region; however, transfer of the project's outcomes to management has proved problematic. Reasons attributed to this include lack of clearly defined management objectives to guide research directions and uptake, and scientific information not being made more understandable and accessible. A key role of a local bridging organisation (e.g., the Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute) in linking science and management is ensuring that research results with management significance can be effectively transmitted to agencies and that outcomes are explained for nonspecialists as well as more widely distributed. We conclude that improved links between science, policy, and management within an adaptive learning-by-doing framework for the GBMWHA would assist the usefulness and uptake of future research.

Integrating Science into Management of Ecosystems in the Greater Blue Mountains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapple, Rosalie S.; Ramp, Daniel; Bradstock, Ross A.; Kingsford, Richard T.; Merson, John A.; Auld, Tony D.; Fleming, Peter J. S.; Mulley, Robert C.

2011-10-01

Effective management of large protected conservation areas is challenged by political, institutional and environmental complexity and inconsistency. Knowledge generation and its uptake into management are crucial to address these challenges. We reflect on practice at the interface between science and management of the Greater Blue Mountains World Heritage Area (GBMWHA), which covers approximately 1 million hectares west of Sydney, Australia. Multiple government agencies and other stakeholders are involved in its management, and decision-making is confounded by numerous plans of management and competing values and goals, reflecting the different objectives and responsibilities of stakeholders. To highlight the complexities of the decision-making process for this large area, we draw on the outcomes of a recent collaborative research project and focus on fire regimes and wild-dog control as examples of how existing knowledge is integrated into management. The collaborative research project achieved the objectives of collating and synthesizing biological data for the region; however, transfer of the project's outcomes to management has proved problematic. Reasons attributed to this include lack of clearly defined management objectives to guide research directions and uptake, and scientific information not being made more understandable and accessible. A key role of a local bridging organisation (e.g., the Blue Mountains World Heritage Institute) in linking science and management is ensuring that research results with management significance can be effectively transmitted to agencies and that outcomes are explained for nonspecialists as well as more widely distributed. We conclude that improved links between science, policy, and management within an adaptive learning-by-doing framework for the GBMWHA would assist the usefulness and uptake of future research.

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and should analyze the effects of such options. The environmental effects of any adaptive management strategy...

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and should analyze the effects of such options. The environmental effects of any adaptive management strategy...

Volatile organic compound sensing devices

DOEpatents

Lancaster, G.D.; Moore, G.A.; Stone, M.L.; Reagen, W.K.

1995-08-29

Apparatus employing vapochromic materials in the form of inorganic double complex salts which change color reversibly when exposed to volatile organic compound (VOC) vapors is adapted for VOC vapor detection, VOC aqueous matrix detection, and selective VOC vapor detection. The basic VOC vapochromic sensor is incorporated in various devices such as a ground probe sensor, a wristband sensor, a periodic sampling monitor, a soil/water penetrometer, an evaporative purge sensor, and various vacuum-based sensors which are particularly adapted for reversible/reusable detection, remote detection, continuous monitoring, or rapid screening of environmental remediation and waste management sites. The vapochromic sensor is used in combination with various fiber optic arrangements to provide a calibrated qualitative and/or quantitative indication of the presence of VOCs. 15 figs.

Volatile organic compound sensing devices

DOEpatents

Lancaster, Gregory D.; Moore, Glenn A.; Stone, Mark L.; Reagen, William K.

1995-01-01

Apparatus employing vapochromic materials in the form of inorganic double complex salts which change color reversibly when exposed to volatile organic compound (VOC) vapors is adapted for VOC vapor detection, VOC aqueous matrix detection, and selective VOC vapor detection. The basic VOC vapochromic sensor is incorporated in various devices such as a ground probe sensor, a wristband sensor, a periodic sampling monitor, a soil/water penetrometer, an evaporative purge sensor, and various vacuum-based sensors which are particularly adapted for reversible/reusable detection, remote detection, continuous monitoring, or rapid screening of environmental remediation and waste management sites. The vapochromic sensor is used in combination with various fiber optic arrangements to provide a calibrated qualitative and/or quantitative indication of the presence of VOCs.

Environmental and socio-economic methodologies and solutions towards integrated water resources management.

PubMed

Friesen, Jan; Rodriguez Sinobas, Leonor; Foglia, Laura; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-03-01

Semi-arid regions are facing the challenge of managing water resources under conditions of increasing scarcity and drought. These are recently pressured by the impact of climate change favoring the shifting from using surface water to groundwater without taking sustainability issues into account. Likewise, water scarcity raises the competition for water among users, increasing the risk of social conflicts, as the availability of fresh water in sufficient quality and quantity is already one of the major factors limiting socio-economic development. In terms of hydrology, semi-arid regions are characterized by very complex hydro- and hydrogeological systems. The complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the poor data availability, (1) which limits the number of analysis techniques and methods available to researchers, (2) limits the accuracy of models and predictions, and (3) consequently challenges the capabilities to develop appropriate management measures to mitigate or adapt the environment to scarcity and drought conditions. Integrated water resources management is a holistic approach to focus on both environmental as well as on socio-economic factors influencing water availability and supply. The management approaches and solutions adopted, e.g. in form of decision support for specific water resources systems, are often highly specific for individual case studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From genotype to phenotype: unraveling the complexities of cold adaptation in forest trees

Treesearch

Glenn T. Howe; Sally N. Aitken; David B. Neale; Kathleen D. Jermstad; Nicholas C. Wheeler; Tony H.H Chen

2003-01-01

Adaptation to winter cold in temperate and boreal trees involves complex genetic, physiological, and developmental processes. Genecological studies demonstrate the existence of steep genetic clines for cold adaptation traits in relation to environmental (mostly temperature related) gradients. Population differentiation is generally stronger for cold adaptation traits...

The limits of poverty reduction in support of climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, Donald R.; Lemos, Maria Carmen; Eakin, Hallie; Lo, Yun-Jia

2016-09-01

The relationship between poverty and climate change vulnerability is complex and though not commensurate, the distinctions between the two are often blurred. There is widespread recognition of the need to better understand poverty-vulnerability dynamics in order to improve risk management and poverty reduction investments. This is challenging due to the latent nature of adaptive capacities, frequent lack of baseline data, and the need for high-resolution studies. Here we respond to these challenges by analyzing household-level data in Northeast Brazil to compare drought events 14 years apart. In the period between droughts, the government implemented an aggressive anti-poverty program that includes financial and human capital investments. Poverty declined significantly, but the expected reduction in vulnerability did not occur, in part because the households were not investing in risk management strategies. Our findings complement other research that shows that households make rational decisions that may not correspond with policymaker expectations. We emphasize the need for complementary investments to help channel increased household wealth into risk reduction, and to ensure that the public sector itself continues to prioritize the public functions of risk management, especially in areas where the social cost of climatic risk is high.

Tool for evaluating research implementation challenges: A sense-making protocol for addressing implementation challenges in complex research settings

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Many challenges arise in complex organizational interventions that threaten research integrity. This article describes a Tool for Evaluating Research Implementation Challenges (TECH), developed using a complexity science framework to assist research teams in assessing and managing these challenges. Methods During the implementation of a multi-site, randomized controlled trial (RCT) of organizational interventions to reduce resident falls in eight nursing homes, we inductively developed, and later codified the TECH. The TECH was developed through processes that emerged from interactions among research team members and nursing home staff participants, including a purposive use of complexity science principles. Results The TECH provided a structure to assess challenges systematically, consider their potential impact on intervention feasibility and fidelity, and determine actions to take. We codified the process into an algorithm that can be adopted or adapted for other research projects. We present selected examples of the use of the TECH that are relevant to many complex interventions. Conclusions Complexity theory provides a useful lens through which research procedures can be developed to address implementation challenges that emerge from complex organizations and research designs. Sense-making is a group process in which diverse members interpret challenges when available information is ambiguous; the groups’ interpretations provide cues for taking action. Sense-making facilitates the creation of safe environments for generating innovative solutions that balance research integrity and practical issues. The challenges encountered during implementation of complex interventions are often unpredictable; however, adoption of a systematic process will allow investigators to address them in a consistent yet flexible manner, protecting fidelity. Research integrity is also protected by allowing for appropriate adaptations to intervention protocols that preserve the feasibility of ‘real world’ interventions. PMID:23281623

Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garfin, G. M.

2010-12-01

At a 2009 international workshop on transboundary climate and water issues, a former World Bank official and current academic mentioned that “crisis, risk and uncertainty” are the three words that motivate decision-makers to act. However, decade-scale climate variability and trend-driven climate changes are phenomena characterized by creeping onset, diffuse and non-synchronous impacts, and complexity. Thus, there is a balancing act to addressing the complexity of uncertainties, while adequately assessing risk, and keeping the potential for crisis in focus without creating a “Chicken Little” situation. This presentation examines translational science approaches to three stages in the continuum from initial communication to societal action: raising awareness, building capacity, and making progress toward action. We examine the roles of scientists, knowledge brokers, decision makers, and the general public in the context of climate services. Although there is no “one size fits all” science communication method, we argue that best practices require that scientists pay particular attention to cultural and political sensitivities associated with decision contexts. We give examples from seasonal forecast communication, drought planning, climate literacy and education needs assessments, and the nexus of climate adaptation planning and uncertainty. In general, we find that constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong links between (a) predictions, impacts and solutions and (b) global to regional to local spatial scales. Often building partnerships for moving science information from observations to knowledge to decisions requires discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, which describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters examination of how others confronting similar issues have both adapted well-known management strategies and developed outside-the-box ideas to move beyond “uncertainty paralysis.” Some preliminary conclusions from our work include the following: (a) iterative and ongoing engagements are necessary to build trust and bolster science credibility; (b) uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning and improving forecast use, and (c) candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, which includes those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors - with decision-making peers, science translators, and subject experts, is needed to stimulate constructive thinking on adaptation strategies. For scientists, gaining insight into how decisions are made is the most important part of scientist-stakeholder interactions. For managers, the most important factors are holistic, cross-sectoral, examination of both climate and non-climate factors affecting resources, and the diversity of public values regarding resource management.

The US Forest Service Framework for Climate Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cleaves, D.

2013-12-01

Public lands are changing in response to climate change and related stressors such that resilience-based management plans that integrate climate-smart adaptation are needed. The goal of these plans is to facilitate land managers' consideration of a range of potential futures while simplifying the complex array of choices and assumptions in a rigorous, defensible manner. The foundation for climate response has been built into recent Forest Service policies, guidance, and strategies like the climate change Roadmap and Scorecard; 2012 Planning Rule; Cohesive Wildland Fire Management strategy; and Inventory, Monitoring & Assessment strategy. This has driven the need for information that is relevant, timely, and accessible to support vulnerability assessments and risk management to aid in designing and choosing alternatives and ranking actions. Managers must also consider carbon and greenhouse gas implications as well as understand the nature and level of uncertainties. The major adjustments that need to be made involve: improving risk-based decision making and working with predictive models and information; evaluating underlying assumptions against new realities and possibilities being revealed by climate science; integrating carbon cycle science and a new ethic of carbon stewardship into management practices; and preparing systems for inevitable changes to ameliorate negative effects, capture opportunities, or accept different and perhaps novel ecosystem configurations. We need to avoid waiting for complete science that never arrives and take actions that blend science and experience to boost learning, reduce costs and irreversible losses, and buy lead time.

33 CFR 385.31 - Adaptive management program.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Adaptive management program. 385... Incorporating New Information Into the Plan § 385.31 Adaptive management program. (a) General. The Corps of Engineers and the South Florida Water Management District shall, in consultation with the Department of the...

76 FR 54487 - Charter Renewal, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-09-01

... Management Work Group AGENCY: Bureau of Reclamation, Interior. ACTION: Notice of renewal. SUMMARY: Following... Interior (Secretary) is renewing the charter for the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Work Group. The purpose of the Adaptive Management Work Group is to advise and to provide recommendations to the Secretary...

The role of goal management for successful adaptation to arthritis.

PubMed

Arends, Roos Y; Bode, Christina; Taal, Erik; Van de Laar, Mart A F J

2013-10-01

Persons with polyarthritis often experience difficulties in attaining personal goals due to disease symptoms such as pain, fatigue and reduced mobility. This study examines the relationship of goal management strategies - goal maintenance, goal adjustment, goal disengagement, goal reengagement - with indicators of adaptation to polyarthritis, namely, depression, anxiety, purpose in life, positive affect, participation, and work participation. 305 patients diagnosed with polyarthritis participated in a questionnaire study (62% female, 29% employed, mean age: 62 years). Hierarchical multiple-regression-analyses were conducted to examine the relative importance of the goal management strategies for adaptation. Self-efficacy in relation to goal management was also studied. For all adaptation indicators, the goal management strategies added substantial explained variance to the models (R(2): .07-.27). Goal maintenance and goal adjustment were significant predictors of adaptation to polyarthritis. Self-efficacy partly mediated the influence of goal management strategies. Goal management strategies were found to be important predictors of successful adaptation to polyarthritis. Overall, adjusting goals to personal ability and circumstances and striving for goals proved to be the most beneficial strategies. Designing interventions that focus on the effective management of goals may help people to adapt to polyarthritis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; Wein, Anne; McCarl, Bruce

2015-01-01

We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

Employee stress management: An examination of adaptive and maladaptive coping strategies on employee health.

PubMed

Holton, M Kim; Barry, Adam E; Chaney, J Don

2015-01-01

Employees commonly report feeling stressed at work. Examine how employees cope with work and personal stress, whether their coping strategies are adaptive (protective to health) or maladaptive (detrimental to health), and if the manner in which employees cope with stress influences perceived stress management. In this cross-sectional study, a random sample of 2,500 full-time university non-student employees (i.e. faculty, salaried professionals, and hourly non-professionals) were surveyed on health related behaviors including stress and coping. Approximately 1,277 completed the survey (51% ). Hierarchical logistic regression was used to assess the ability of adaptive and maladaptive coping strategies to predict self-reported stress management, while controlling for multiple demographic variables. Over half of employees surveyed reported effective stress management. Most frequently used adaptive coping strategies were communication with friend/family member and exercise, while most frequently used maladaptive coping strategies were drinking alcohol and eating more than usual. Both adaptive and maladaptive coping strategies made significant (p < 0.05) contributions to predicting employee's perceived stress management. Only adaptive coping strategies (B = 0.265) predicted whether someone would self-identify as effectively managing stress. Use of maladaptive coping strategies decreased likelihood of self-reporting effective stress management. Actual coping strategies employed may influence employees' perceived stress management. Adaptive coping strategies may be more influential than maladaptive coping strategies on perceived stress management. Results illustrate themes for effective workplace stress management programs. Stress management programs focused on increasing use of adaptive coping may have a greater impact on employee stress management than those focused on decreasing use of maladaptive coping. Coping is not only a reaction to stressful experiences but also a consequence of coping resources. Thereby increasing the availability of resources in the workplace to facilitate the use of adaptive coping strategies is necessary for successful stress management and, ultimately, healthier employees.

Adaptive management: Chapter 1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2015-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

Adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2015-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management where knowledge is incomplete, and when, despite inherent uncertainty, managers and policymakers must act. Unlike a traditional trial and error approach, adaptive management has explicit structure, including a careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. The process is iterative, and serves to reduce uncertainty, build knowledge and improve management over time in a goal-oriented and structured process.

Design of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, Curt; Schaefer, Jacob; Johnson, Marcus; Nguyen, Nhan

2012-01-01

Flight research experiments have demonstrated that adaptive flight controls can be an effective technology for improving aircraft safety in the event of failures or damage. However, the nonlinear, timevarying nature of adaptive algorithms continues to challenge traditional methods for the verification and validation testing of safety-critical flight control systems. Increasingly complex adaptive control theories and designs are emerging, but only make testing challenges more difficult. A potential first step toward the acceptance of adaptive flight controllers by aircraft manufacturers, operators, and certification authorities is a very simple design that operates as an augmentation to a non-adaptive baseline controller. Three such controllers were developed as part of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration flight research experiment to determine the appropriate level of complexity required to restore acceptable handling qualities to an aircraft that has suffered failures or damage. The controllers consist of the same basic design, but incorporate incrementally-increasing levels of complexity. Derivations of the controllers and their adaptive parameter update laws are presented along with details of the controllers implementations.

Adaptive management of forest ecosystems: did some rubber hit the road?

Treesearch

B.T. Bormann; R.W. Haynes; J.R. Martin

2007-01-01

Although many scientists recommend adaptive management for large forest tracts, there is little evidence that its use has been effective at this scale. One exception is the 10-million-hectare Northwest Forest Plan, which explicitly included adaptive management in its design. Evidence from 10 years of implementing the plan suggests that formalizing adaptive steps and...

Klamath Basin: A Watershed Approach to Support Habitat Restoration, Species Recovery, and Water Resource Planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

VanderKooi, S.P.; Thorsteinson, L.

2007-01-01

Water allocation among human and natural resource uses in the American West is challenging. Western rivers have been largely managed for hydropower, irrigation, drinking water, and navigation. Today land and water use practices have gained importance, particularly as aging dams are faced with re-licensing requirements and provisions of the Endangered Species and Clean Water Acts. Rising demand for scarce water heightens the need for scientific research to predict consequences of management actions on habitats, human resource use, and fish and wildlife. Climate change, introduction of invasive species, or restoration of fish passage can have large, landscape-scaled consequences - research must expand to encompass the appropriate scale and by applying multiple scientific disciplines to complex ecosystem challenges improve the adaptive management framework for decision-making.

A fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system for spacecraft integrated vehicle health management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, G. Gordon

1995-01-01

Due to the complexity of future space missions and the large amount of data involved, greater autonomy in data processing is demanded for mission operations, training, and vehicle health management. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy logic intelligent diagnostic system to perform data reduction, data analysis, and fault diagnosis for spacecraft vehicle health management applications. The diagnostic system contains a data filter and an inference engine. The data filter is designed to intelligently select only the necessary data for analysis, while the inference engine is designed for failure detection, warning, and decision on corrective actions using fuzzy logic synthesis. Due to its adaptive nature and on-line learning ability, the diagnostic system is capable of dealing with environmental noise, uncertainties, conflict information, and sensor faults.

Boundary-spanning actors in complex adaptive governance systems: The case of multisectoral nutrition.

PubMed

Pelletier, David; Gervais, Suzanne; Hafeez-Ur-Rehman, Hajra; Sanou, Dia; Tumwine, Jackson

2018-01-01

A growing literature highlights complexity of policy implementation and governance in global health and argues that the processes and outcomes of policies could be improved by explicitly taking this complexity into account. Yet there is a paucity of studies exploring how this can be achieved in everyday practice. This study documents the strategies, tactics, and challenges of boundary-spanning actors working in 4 Sub-Saharan Africa countries who supported the implementation of multisectoral nutrition as part of the African Nutrition Security Partnership in Burkina Faso, Mali, Ethiopia, and Uganda. Three action researchers were posted to these countries during the final 2 years of the project to help the government and its partners implement multisectoral nutrition and document the lessons. Prospective data were collected through participant observation, end-line semistructured interviews, and document analysis. All 4 countries made significant progress despite a wide range of challenges at the individual, organizational, and system levels. The boundary-spanning actors and their collaborators deployed a wide range of strategies but faced significant challenges in playing these unconventional roles. The study concludes that, under the right conditions, intentional boundary spanning can be a feasible and acceptable practice within a multisectoral, complex adaptive system in low- and middle-income countries. © 2017 The Authors. The International Journal of Health Planning and Management Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

PubMed

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Unraveling the complexities of disaster management: a framework for critical social infrastructure to promote population health and resilience.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Tracey L; Kuziemsky, Craig E; Toal-Sullivan, Darene; Corneil, Wayne

2013-09-01

Complexity is a useful frame of reference for disaster management and understanding population health. An important means to unraveling the complexities of disaster management is to recognize the interdependencies between health care and broader social systems and how they intersect to promote health and resilience before, during and after a crisis. While recent literature has expanded our understanding of the complexity of disasters at the macro level, few studies have examined empirically how dynamic elements of critical social infrastructure at the micro level influence community capacity. The purpose of this study was to explore empirically the complexity of disasters, to determine levers for action where interventions can be used to facilitate collaborative action and promote health among high risk populations. A second purpose was to build a framework for critical social infrastructure and develop a model to identify potential points of intervention to promote population health and resilience. A community-based participatory research design was used in nine focus group consultations (n = 143) held in five communities in Canada, between October 2010 and March 2011, using the Structured Interview Matrix facilitation technique. The findings underscore the importance of interconnectedness of hard and soft systems at the micro level, with culture providing the backdrop for the social fabric of each community. Open coding drawing upon the tenets of complexity theory was used to develop four core themes that provide structure for the framework that evolved; they relate to dynamic context, situational awareness and connectedness, flexible planning, and collaboration, which are needed to foster adaptive responses to disasters. Seven action recommendations are presented, to promote community resilience and population health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Use of Complex Adaptive Systems as a Generative Metaphor in an Action Research Study of an Organisation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Callum

2008-01-01

Understanding the dynamic behaviour of organisations is challenging and this study uses a model of complex adaptive systems as a generative metaphor to address this challenge. The research question addressed is: How might a conceptual model of complex adaptive systems be used to assist in understanding the dynamic nature of organisations? Using an…

Adaptive fixed-time control for cluster synchronisation of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Shengqin; Lu, Xiaobo; Cai, Guoliang; Cai, Shuiming

2017-12-01

This paper focuses on the cluster synchronisation problem of coupled complex networks with uncertain disturbances under an adaptive fixed-time control strategy. To begin with, complex dynamical networks with community structure which are subject to uncertain disturbances are taken into account. Then, a novel adaptive control strategy combined with fixed-time techniques is proposed to guarantee the nodes in the communities to desired states in a settling time. In addition, the stability of complex error systems is theoretically proved based on Lyapunov stability theorem. At last, two examples are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive fixed-time control.

Complex adaptive systems: A new approach for understanding health practices.

PubMed

Gomersall, Tim

2018-06-22

This article explores the potential of complex adaptive systems theory to inform behaviour change research. A complex adaptive system describes a collection of heterogeneous agents interacting within a particular context, adapting to each other's actions. In practical terms, this implies that behaviour change is 1) socially and culturally situated; 2) highly sensitive to small baseline differences in individuals, groups, and intervention components; and 3) determined by multiple components interacting "chaotically". Two approaches to studying complex adaptive systems are briefly reviewed. Agent-based modelling is a computer simulation technique that allows researchers to investigate "what if" questions in a virtual environment. Applied qualitative research techniques, on the other hand, offer a way to examine what happens when an intervention is pursued in real-time, and to identify the sorts of rules and assumptions governing social action. Although these represent very different approaches to complexity, there may be scope for mixing these methods - for example, by grounding models in insights derived from qualitative fieldwork. Finally, I will argue that the concept of complex adaptive systems offers one opportunity to gain a deepened understanding of health-related practices, and to examine the social psychological processes that produce health-promoting or damaging actions.

Adaptive management areas: achieving the promise, avoiding the peril.

Treesearch

George H. Stankey; Bruce Shindler

1997-01-01

Ten Adaptive Management Areas (AMAs) were created in compliance with the Northwest Forest Plan. Although the essence of adaptive management is to treat management as an experiment and to "learn how to learn," several barriers affect the successful implementation of AMAs. Four propositions are identified that address these potential barriers: (1) area...

A Word to the Wise: Advice for Scientists Engaged in Collaborative Adaptive Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkinson, Peter; Huber, Ann; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2017-05-01

Collaborative adaptive management is a process for making decisions about the environment in the face of uncertainty and conflict. Scientists have a central role to play in these decisions. However, while scientists are well trained to reduce uncertainty by discovering new knowledge, most lack experience with the means to mitigate conflict in contested situations. To address this gap, we drew from our efforts coordinating a large collaborative adaptive management effort, the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, to offer advice to our fellow environmental scientists. Key challenges posed by collaborative adaptive management include the confusion caused by multiple institutional cultures, the need to provide information at management-relevant scales, frequent turnover in participants, fluctuations in enthusiasm among key constituencies, and diverse definitions of success among partners. Effective strategies included a dedication to consistency, a commitment to transparency, the willingness to communicate frequently via multiple forums, and the capacity for flexibility. Collaborative adaptive management represents a promising, new model for scientific engagement with the public. Learning the lessons of effective collaboration in environmental management is an essential task to achieve the shared goal of a sustainable future.

Optimising qualitative longitudinal analysis: Insights from a study of traumatic brain injury recovery and adaptation.

PubMed

Fadyl, Joanna K; Channon, Alexis; Theadom, Alice; McPherson, Kathryn M

2017-04-01

Knowledge about aspects that influence recovery and adaptation in the postacute phase of disabling health events is key to understanding how best to provide appropriate rehabilitation and health services. Qualitative longitudinal research makes it possible to look for patterns, key time points and critical moments that could be vital for interventions and supports. However, strategies that support robust data management and analysis for longitudinal qualitative research in health-care are not well documented in the literature. This article reviews three challenges encountered in a large longitudinal qualitative descriptive study about experiences of recovery and adaptation after traumatic brain injury in New Zealand, and the strategies and technologies used to address them. These were (i) tracking coding and analysis decisions during an extended analysis period; (ii) navigating interpretations over time and in response to new data; and (iii) exploiting data volume and complexity. Concept mapping during coding review, a considered combination of information technologies, employing both cross-sectional and narrative analysis, and an expectation that subanalyses would be required for key topics helped us manage the study in a way that facilitated useful and novel insights. These strategies could be applied in other qualitative longitudinal studies in healthcare inquiry to optimise data analysis and stimulate important insights. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of learning adaptability and time management disposition on study engagement among Chinese baccalaureate nursing students.

PubMed

Liu, Jing-Ying; Liu, Yan-Hui; Yang, Ji-Peng

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to explore the relationships among study engagement, learning adaptability, and time management disposition in a sample of Chinese baccalaureate nursing students. A convenient sample of 467 baccalaureate nursing students was surveyed in two universities in Tianjin, China. Students completed a questionnaire that included their demographic information, Chinese Utrecht Work Engagement Scale-Student Questionnaire, Learning Adaptability Scale, and Adolescence Time Management Disposition Scale. One-way analysis of variance tests were used to assess the relationship between certain characteristics of baccalaureate nursing students. Pearson correlation was performed to test the correlation among study engagement, learning adaptability, and time management disposition. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were performed to explore the mediating role of time management disposition. The results revealed that study engagement (F = 7.20, P < .01) and learning adaptability (F = 4.41, P < .01) differed across grade groups. Learning adaptability (r = 0.382, P < .01) and time management disposition (r = 0.741, P < .01) were positively related with study engagement. Time management disposition had a partially mediating effect on the relationship between study engagement and learning adaptability. The findings implicate that educators should not only promote interventions to increase engagement of baccalaureate nursing students but also focus on development, investment in adaptability, and time management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Model or Myopia? Exploiting Water Markets to Address Population and Drought Risks in a Changing World

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, P. M.

2012-12-01

Climate change, population demands, and evolving land-use represent strong risks to the sustainable development and stability of world-wide urban water supplies. There is a growing consensus that non-structural supply management instruments such as water markets have significant potential to reduce the risks and vulnerabilities in complex urban water systems. This paper asks a common question, what are the tradeoffs for a city using water market supply instruments?. This question emerges quickly in policy and management, but its answer is deceptively difficult to attain using traditional planning tools and management frameworks. This research demonstrates new frameworks that facilitate rapid evaluation of hypotheses on the reliability, resiliency, adaptability, and cost-effectiveness of urban water supply systems. This study considers a broader exploration of the issues of "nonstationarity" and "uncertainty" in urban water planning. As we invest in new information and prediction frameworks for the coupled human-natural systems that define our water, our problem definitions (i.e., objectives, constraints, preferences, and hypotheses) themselves evolve. From a formal mathematical perspective, this means that our management problems are structurally uncertain and nonstationary (i.e., the definition of optimality changes across regions, times, and stakeholders). This uncertainty and nonstationarity in our problem definitions needs to be more explicitly acknowledged in adaptive management and integrated water resources management. This study demonstrates the potential benefits of exploring these issues in the context of a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of Texas, USA determining how to use its regional water market to manage population and drought risks.

Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Tian; Voisin, Nathalie; Leng, Guoyong

Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-inducedmore » alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.« less

Understanding enabling capacities for managing the 'wicked problem' of nonpoint source water pollution in catchments: a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Patterson, James J; Smith, Carl; Bellamy, Jennifer

2013-10-15

Nonpoint source (NPS) water pollution in catchments is a 'wicked' problem that threatens water quality, water security, ecosystem health and biodiversity, and thus the provision of ecosystem services that support human livelihoods and wellbeing from local to global scales. However, it is a difficult problem to manage because water catchments are linked human and natural systems that are complex, dynamic, multi-actor, and multi-scalar in nature. This in turn raises questions about understanding and influencing change across multiple levels of planning, decision-making and action. A key challenge in practice is enabling implementation of local management action, which can be influenced by a range of factors across multiple levels. This paper reviews and synthesises important 'enabling' capacities that can influence implementation of local management action, and develops a conceptual framework for understanding and analysing these in practice. Important enabling capacities identified include: history and contingency; institutional arrangements; collaboration; engagement; vision and strategy; knowledge building and brokerage; resourcing; entrepreneurship and leadership; and reflection and adaptation. Furthermore, local action is embedded within multi-scalar contexts and therefore, is highly contextual. The findings highlight the need for: (1) a systemic and integrative perspective for understanding and influencing change for managing the wicked problem of NPS water pollution; and (2) 'enabling' social and institutional arenas that support emergent and adaptive management structures, processes and innovations for addressing NPS water pollution in practice. These findings also have wider relevance to other 'wicked' natural resource management issues facing similar implementation challenges. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Embodying a cognitive model in a mobile robot

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benjamin, D. Paul; Lyons, Damian; Lonsdale, Deryle

2006-10-01

The ADAPT project is a collaboration of researchers in robotics, linguistics and artificial intelligence at three universities to create a cognitive architecture specifically designed to be embodied in a mobile robot. There are major respects in which existing cognitive architectures are inadequate for robot cognition. In particular, they lack support for true concurrency and for active perception. ADAPT addresses these deficiencies by modeling the world as a network of concurrent schemas, and modeling perception as problem solving. Schemas are represented using the RS (Robot Schemas) language, and are activated by spreading activation. RS provides a powerful language for distributed control of concurrent processes. Also, The formal semantics of RS provides the basis for the semantics of ADAPT's use of natural language. We have implemented the RS language in Soar, a mature cognitive architecture originally developed at CMU and used at a number of universities and companies. Soar's subgoaling and learning capabilities enable ADAPT to manage the complexity of its environment and to learn new schemas from experience. We describe the issues faced in developing an embodied cognitive architecture, and our implementation choices.

Adaptive Policies for Reducing Inequalities in the Social Determinants of Health.

PubMed

Carey, Gemma; Crammond, Brad; Malbon, Eleanor; Carey, Nic

2015-09-18

Inequalities in the social determinants of health (SDH), which drive avoidable health disparities between different individuals or groups, is a major concern for a number of international organisations, including the World Health Organization (WHO). Despite this, the pathways to changing inequalities in the SDH remain elusive. The methodologies and concepts within system science are now viewed as important domains of knowledge, ideas and skills for tackling issues of inequality, which are increasingly understood as emergent properties of complex systems. In this paper, we introduce and expand the concept of adaptive policies to reduce inequalities in the distribution of the SDH. The concept of adaptive policy for health equity was developed through reviewing the literature on learning and adaptive policies. Using a series of illustrative examples from education and poverty alleviation, which have their basis in real world policies, we demonstrate how an adaptive policy approach is more suited to the management of the emergent properties of inequalities in the SDH than traditional policy approaches. This is because they are better placed to handle future uncertainties. Our intention is that these examples are illustrative, rather than prescriptive, and serve to create a conversation regarding appropriate adaptive policies for progressing policy action on the SDH. © 2015 by Kerman University of Medical Sciences.

Impact of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Sanganyado, Edmond; Teta, Charles; Masiri, Busani

2018-03-01

Recent studies show cultural worldviews are a key determinant of environmental risk perceptions; thus, they could influence climate change adaptation strategies. African traditional worldviews encourage harmony between humans and the environment through a complex metaphysical belief system transmitted through folklore, taboos, and traditional knowledge. However, African traditional worldviews hold a belief in traditional gods that was shown to have a low connectedness to nature and a low willingness to change. In Makueni District, Kenya, 45% of agropastoralists surveyed believed drought was god's plan and could not be changed. In contrast, traditional knowledge, which is shaped by African traditional worldviews, is often used to frame adaptive strategies such as migration, changing modes of production, and planting different crop varieties. Furthermore, traditional knowledge has been used as a complement to science in areas where meteorological data was unavailable. However, the role of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaption remains understudied. Hence, there is a need to systematically establish the influence of African traditional worldviews on climate change risk perception, development of adaptive strategies, and policy formulation and implementation. In this commentary, we discuss the potential impacts of African traditional worldviews on climate change adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:189-193. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Host culling as an adaptive management tool for chronic wasting disease in white-tailed deer: a modelling study.

PubMed

Wasserberg, Gideon; Osnas, Erik E; Rolley, Robert E; Samuel, Michael D

2009-04-01

Emerging wildlife diseases pose a significant threat to natural and human systems. Because of real or perceived risks of delayed actions, disease management strategies such as culling are often implemented before thorough scientific knowledge of disease dynamics is available. Adaptive management is a valuable approach in addressing the uncertainty and complexity associated with wildlife disease problems and can be facilitated by using a formal model.We developed a multi-state computer simulation model using age, sex, infection-stage, and seasonality as a tool for scientific learning and managing chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus. Our matrix model used disease transmission parameters based on data collected through disease management activities. We used this model to evaluate management issues on density- (DD) and frequency-dependent (FD) transmission, time since disease introduction, and deer culling on the demographics, epizootiology, and management of CWD.Both DD and FD models fit the Wisconsin data for a harvested white-tailed deer population, but FD was slightly better. Time since disease introduction was estimated as 36 (95% CI, 24-50) and 188 (41->200) years for DD and FD transmission, respectively. Deer harvest using intermediate to high non-selective rates can be used to reduce uncertainty between DD and FD transmission and improve our prediction of long-term epidemic patterns and host population impacts. A higher harvest rate allows earlier detection of these differences, but substantially reduces deer abundance.Results showed that CWD has spread slowly within Wisconsin deer populations, and therefore, epidemics and disease management are expected to last for decades. Non-hunted deer populations can develop and sustain a high level of infection, generating a substantial risk of disease spread. In contrast, CWD prevalence remains lower in hunted deer populations, but at a higher prevalence the disease competes with recreational hunting to reduce deer abundance.Synthesis and applications. Uncertainty about density- or frequency-dependent transmission hinders predictions about the long-term impacts of chronic wasting disease on cervid populations and the development of appropriate management strategies. An adaptive management strategy using computer modelling coupled with experimental management and monitoring can be used to test model predictions, identify the likely mode of disease transmission, and evaluate the risks of alternative management responses.

Adaptive Management of Ecosystems

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management. As such, management may be treated as experiment, with replication, or management may be conducted in an iterative manner. Although the concept has resonated with many...

Prediction-based manufacturing center self-adaptive demand side energy optimization in cyber physical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xinyao; Wang, Xue; Wu, Jiangwei; Liu, Youda

2014-05-01

Cyber physical systems(CPS) recently emerge as a new technology which can provide promising approaches to demand side management(DSM), an important capability in industrial power systems. Meanwhile, the manufacturing center is a typical industrial power subsystem with dozens of high energy consumption devices which have complex physical dynamics. DSM, integrated with CPS, is an effective methodology for solving energy optimization problems in manufacturing center. This paper presents a prediction-based manufacturing center self-adaptive energy optimization method for demand side management in cyber physical systems. To gain prior knowledge of DSM operating results, a sparse Bayesian learning based componential forecasting method is introduced to predict 24-hour electric load levels for specific industrial areas in China. From this data, a pricing strategy is designed based on short-term load forecasting results. To minimize total energy costs while guaranteeing manufacturing center service quality, an adaptive demand side energy optimization algorithm is presented. The proposed scheme is tested in a machining center energy optimization experiment. An AMI sensing system is then used to measure the demand side energy consumption of the manufacturing center. Based on the data collected from the sensing system, the load prediction-based energy optimization scheme is implemented. By employing both the PSO and the CPSO method, the problem of DSM in the manufacturing center is solved. The results of the experiment show the self-adaptive CPSO energy optimization method enhances optimization by 5% compared with the traditional PSO optimization method.

The development of mountain risk governance: challenges for application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Link, S.; Stötter, J.

2015-01-01

The complexity the management of mountain risks in the Alps has considerably increased since its institutionalisation in the late nineteenth century. In the history of approaches to dealing with mountain risks four successive paradigms can be distinguished on the basis of key indicators such as guiding principles, characteristic elements and typical instruments: "hazard protection", "hazard management", "risk management", and "risk governance". In this contribution, special attention is paid to the development of hazard zone planning and the growing importance of communication and participation over the course of this transformation. At present, the risk management paradigm has reached maturity. In the Alps, risk governance frameworks are not yet applied to risks from natural hazards. Based on a historical analysis, the suitability and applicability of general risk governance frameworks in the context of mountain risks are discussed. Necessary adaptations (e.g., in administration, educational, and legal structures) are proposed for the upcoming transformation towards mountain risk governance.

On the Origin of Complex Adaptive Traits: Progress Since the Darwin Versus Mivart Debate.

PubMed

Suzuki, Takao K

2017-06-01

The evolutionary origin of complex adaptive traits has been a controversial topic in the history of evolutionary biology. Although Darwin argued for the gradual origins of complex adaptive traits within the theory of natural selection, Mivart insisted that natural selection could not account for the incipient stages of complex traits. The debate starting from Darwin and Mivart eventually engendered two opposite views: gradualism and saltationism. Although this has been a long-standing debate, the issue remains unresolved. However, recent studies have interrogated classic examples of complex traits, such as the asymmetrical eyes of flatfishes and leaf mimicry of butterfly wings, whose origins were debated by Darwin and Mivart. Here, I review recent findings as a starting point to provide a modern picture of the evolution of complex adaptive traits. First, I summarize the empirical evidence that unveils the evolutionary steps toward complex traits. I then argue that the evolution of complex traits could be understood within the concept of "reducible complexity." Through these discussions, I propose a conceptual framework for the formation of complex traits, named as reducible-composable multicomponent systems, that satisfy two major characteristics: reducibility into a sum of subcomponents and composability to construct traits from various additional and combinatorial arrangements of the subcomponents. This conceptual framework provides an analytical foundation for exploring evolutionary pathways to build up complex traits. This review provides certain essential avenues for deciphering the origin of complex adaptive traits. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Implementing climate change adaptation in forested regions of the United States

Treesearch

Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar; Janine M. Rice; Christopher W. Swanston

2014-01-01

Natural resource managers need concrete ways to adapt to the effects of climate change. Science-management partnerships have proven to be an effective means of facilitating climate change adaptation for natural resource management agencies. Here we describe the process and results of several science-management partnerships in different forested regions of the United...

Adaptations to climate change: Colville and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests

Treesearch

William L. Gaines; David W. Peterson; Cameron A. Thomas; Richy J. Harrod

2012-01-01

Forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their management goals, in response to climate change. Science-management collaboration was initiated on national forests in eastern Washington where resource managers showed a keen interest in science-based options for adapting to climate change at a 2-day...

A practical approach for translating climate change adaptation principles into forest management actions

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha Prasad; Matthew P. Peters

2014-01-01

There is an ever-growing body of literature on forest management strategies for climate change adaptation; however, few frameworks have been presented for integrating these strategies with the real-world challenges of forest management. We have developed a structured approach for translating broad adaptation concepts into specific management actions and silvicultural...

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

PubMed Central

Viana, Mafalda; Mancy, Rebecca; Biek, Roman; Cleaveland, Sarah; Cross, Paul C.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Haydon, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems. PMID:24726345

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mafalda, Viana; Rebecca, Mancy; Roman, Biek; Sarah, Cleaveland; Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Daniel T, Haydon

2014-01-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems.

Managing human error in aviation.

PubMed

Helmreich, R L

1997-05-01

Crew resource management (CRM) programs were developed to address team and leadership aspects of piloting modern airplanes. The goal is to reduce errors through team work. Human factors research and social, cognitive, and organizational psychology are used to develop programs tailored for individual airlines. Flight crews study accident case histories, group dynamics, and human error. Simulators provide pilots with the opportunity to solve complex flight problems. CRM in the simulator is called line-oriented flight training (LOFT). In automated cockpits CRM promotes the idea of automation as a crew member. Cultural aspects of aviation include professional, business, and national culture. The aviation CRM model has been adapted for training surgeons and operating room staff in human factors.

Monitoring and Identifying in Real time Critical Patients Events.

PubMed

Chavez Mora, Emma

2014-01-01

Nowadays pervasive health care monitoring environments, as well as business activity monitoring environments, gather information from a variety of data sources. However it includes new challenges because of the use of body and wireless sensors, nontraditional operational and transactional sources. This makes the health data more difficult to monitor. Decision making in this environment is typically complex and unstructured as clinical work is essentially interpretative, multitasking, collaborative, distributed and reactive. Thus, the health care arena requires real time data management in areas such as patient monitoring, detection of adverse events and adaptive responses to operational failures. This research presents a new architecture that enables real time patient data management through the use of intelligent data sources.

Changes in leadership styles as a function of a four-day leadership training institute for nurse managers: a perspective on continuing education program evaluation.

PubMed

Wolf, M S

1996-01-01

This study measured changes in knowledge acquisition and application of the Hersey and Blanchard model of leadership styles and leadership style adaptability among 144 registered nurses who participated in a four-day management institute. A pre- and post-institute administration of the LEAD-Self instrument was conducted. Although the findings demonstrated a significant change in the participants' leadership styles, the data revealed that outcomes were not as positive as had been assumed based on participants' self-reports. The discussion of findings reveals the complexity and the necessity of measuring learning outcomes for continuing education program improvement.

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience planning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Angeler, David G.; Allen, Craig R.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.; Gunderson, Lance H.; Linkov, Igor

2016-01-01

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

2015-01-01

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

PubMed

Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

2015-10-01

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Adaptive governance of riverine and wetland ecosystem goods and services

EPA Science Inventory

Adaptive governance and adaptive management have developed over the past quarter century in response to institutional and organizational failures, and unforeseen changes in natural resource dynamics. Adaptive governance provides a context for managing known and unknown consequenc...

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations

PubMed Central

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results. PMID:28467431

Adaptive control for a class of nonlinear complex dynamical systems with uncertain complex parameters and perturbations.

PubMed

Liu, Jian; Liu, Kexin; Liu, Shutang

2017-01-01

In this paper, adaptive control is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new control scheme for a class of n-dimensional time-dependent strict-feedback complex-variable chaotic (hyperchaotic) systems (CVCSs) in the presence of uncertain complex parameters and perturbations, which has not been previously reported in the literature. In detail, we have developed a unified framework for designing the adaptive complex scalar controller to ensure this type of CVCSs asymptotically stable and for selecting complex update laws to estimate unknown complex parameters. In particular, combining Lyapunov functions dependent on complex-valued vectors and back-stepping technique, sufficient criteria on stabilization of CVCSs are derived in the sense of Wirtinger calculus in complex space. Finally, numerical simulation is presented to validate our theoretical results.

[Health: an adaptive complex system].

PubMed

Toro-Palacio, Luis Fernando; Ochoa-Jaramillo, Francisco Luis

2012-02-01

This article points out the enormous gap that exists between complex thinking of an intellectual nature currently present in our environment, and complex experimental thinking that has facilitated the scientific and technological advances that have radically changed the world. The article suggests that life, human beings, global society, and all that constitutes health be considered as adaptive complex systems. This idea, in turn, prioritizes the adoption of a different approach that seeks to expand understanding. When this rationale is recognized, the principal characteristics and emerging properties of health as an adaptive complex system are sustained, following a care and services delivery model. Finally, some pertinent questions from this perspective are put forward in terms of research, and a series of appraisals are expressed that will hopefully serve to help us understand all that we have become as individuals and as a species. The article proposes that the delivery of health care services be regarded as an adaptive complex system.

Adaptive exponential synchronization of complex-valued Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with known and unknown parameters.

PubMed

Hu, Jin; Zeng, Chunna

2017-02-01

The complex-valued Cohen-Grossberg neural network is a special kind of complex-valued neural network. In this paper, the synchronization problem of a class of complex-valued Cohen-Grossberg neural networks with known and unknown parameters is investigated. By using Lyapunov functionals and the adaptive control method based on parameter identification, some adaptive feedback schemes are proposed to achieve synchronization exponentially between the drive and response systems. The results obtained in this paper have extended and improved some previous works on adaptive synchronization of Cohen-Grossberg neural networks. Finally, two numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Participation in Decision Making as a Property of Complex Adaptive Systems: Developing and Testing a Measure

PubMed Central

Anderson, Ruth A.; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R.; McDaniel, Reuben R.

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them. PMID:24349771

Participation in decision making as a property of complex adaptive systems: developing and testing a measure.

PubMed

Anderson, Ruth A; Plowman, Donde; Corazzini, Kirsten; Hsieh, Pi-Ching; Su, Hui Fang; Landerman, Lawrence R; McDaniel, Reuben R

2013-01-01

Objectives. To (1) describe participation in decision-making as a systems-level property of complex adaptive systems and (2) present empirical evidence of reliability and validity of a corresponding measure. Method. Study 1 was a mail survey of a single respondent (administrators or directors of nursing) in each of 197 nursing homes. Study 2 was a field study using random, proportionally stratified sampling procedure that included 195 organizations with 3,968 respondents. Analysis. In Study 1, we analyzed the data to reduce the number of scale items and establish initial reliability and validity. In Study 2, we strengthened the psychometric test using a large sample. Results. Results demonstrated validity and reliability of the participation in decision-making instrument (PDMI) while measuring participation of workers in two distinct job categories (RNs and CNAs). We established reliability at the organizational level aggregated items scores. We established validity of the multidimensional properties using convergent and discriminant validity and confirmatory factor analysis. Conclusions. Participation in decision making, when modeled as a systems-level property of organization, has multiple dimensions and is more complex than is being traditionally measured. Managers can use this model to form decision teams that maximize the depth and breadth of expertise needed and to foster connection among them.

A system management methodology for building successful resource management systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hornstein, Rhoda Shaller; Willoughby, John K.

1989-01-01

This paper presents a system management methodology for building successful resource management systems that possess lifecycle effectiveness. This methodology is based on an analysis of the traditional practice of Systems Engineering Management as it applies to the development of resource management systems. The analysis produced fifteen significant findings presented as recommended adaptations to the traditional practice of Systems Engineering Management to accommodate system development when the requirements are incomplete, unquantifiable, ambiguous and dynamic. Ten recommended adaptations to achieve operational effectiveness when requirements are incomplete, unquantifiable or ambiguous are presented and discussed. Five recommended adaptations to achieve system extensibility when requirements are dynamic are also presented and discussed. The authors conclude that the recommended adaptations to the traditional practice of Systems Engineering Management should be implemented for future resource management systems and that the technology exists to build these systems extensibly.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

Performance of experienced versus less experienced paramedics in managing challenging scenarios: a cognitive task analysis study.

PubMed

Smith, Michael W; Bentley, Melissa A; Fernandez, Antonio R; Gibson, Gregory; Schweikhart, Sharon B; Woods, David D

2013-10-01

Out-of-hospital care is becoming more complex, thus placing greater reliance on the cognitive abilities of paramedics to manage difficult situations. In adapting to the challenges in their work, paramedics develop expertise. We study the cognitive strategies used by expert paramedics to contribute to understanding how paramedics and the EMS system can adapt to new challenges. We conducted a "staged-world" cognitive task analysis to explore paramedics' handling of cognitive challenges related to sense-making and to resource and task management. A mixed-fidelity simulation was used to present paramedics with 2 challenging scenarios: a pulmonary embolism initially presenting as a myocardial infarction and a 2-person shooting with limited resources available. Participants were 10 paramedics, 6 more experienced and 4 less experienced. Analysis involved comparing the performance of the 2 groups to identify strategies associated with expertise. The more experienced paramedics made more assessments, explored a wider variety of presumptive diagnoses, and identified the pulmonary embolism earlier. They switched attention between the 2 shooting victims more, used their emergency medical technician-basic level partners more, and provided more advanced level care for both patients. Their patients arrived at the emergency department more prepared for specialized emergency care. Our findings correspond to general cognitive attributes of expertise: greater cue gathering and inferential reasoning, and more functional and strategic thinking. These results suggest potential areas and methods to facilitate development of expertise, as well as ways to better support use of expertise. Future studies should expand on these findings through larger sample sizes and more complex scenarios. Copyright © 2013 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptive management of natural resources: theory, concepts, and management institutions.

Treesearch

George H. Stankey; Roger N. Clark; Bernard T. Bormann

2005-01-01

This report reviews the extensive and growing literature on the concept and application of adaptive management. Adaptive management is a central element of the Northwest Forest Plan and there is a need for an informed understanding of the key theories, concepts, and frameworks upon which it is founded. Literature from a diverse range of fields including social learning...

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

The development of two Broadband Vibration Energy Harvesters (BVEH) with adaptive conversion electronics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clingman, Dan J.; Thiesen, Jack

2017-04-01

Historically, piezoelectric vibration energy harvesters have been limited to operation at a single, structurally resonant frequency. A piezoceramic energy harvester, such as a bimorph beam, operating at structural resonance exchanges energy between dynamic and strain regimes. This energy exchange increases the coupling between piezoceramic deformation and electrical charge generation. Two BVEH mechanisms are presented that exploit strain energy management to reduce inertial forces needed to deform the piezoceramic, thus increasing the coupling between structural and electrical energy conversion over a broadband vibration spectrum. Broadband vibration excitation produces a non-sinusoidal electrical wave form from the BVEH device. An adaptive energy conversion circuit was developed that exploits a buck converter to capture the complex waveform energy in a form easily used by standard electrical components.

Information security governance: a risk assessment approach to health information systems protection.

PubMed

Williams, Patricia A H

2013-01-01

It is no small task to manage the protection of healthcare data and healthcare information systems. In an environment that is demanding adaptation to change for all information collection, storage and retrieval systems, including those for of e-health and information systems, it is imperative that good information security governance is in place. This includes understanding and meeting legislative and regulatory requirements. This chapter provides three models to educate and guide organisations in this complex area, and to simplify the process of information security governance and ensure appropriate and effective measures are put in place. The approach is risk based, adapted and contextualized for healthcare. In addition, specific considerations of the impact of cloud services, secondary use of data, big data and mobile health are discussed.

Adaptation illustrations: Chapter 4

Treesearch

Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler; Chris Swanston; Matt St. Pierre; Linda Parker

2012-01-01

In this chapter, we demonstrate how the Adaptation Workbook (Chapter 3) can be used with the Adaptation Strategies and Approaches (Chapter 2) to develop adaptation tactics for two real-world management issues. The two illustrations in this chapter are intended to provide helpful tips to managers completing the Adaptation Workbook, as well as to show how the anticipated...

50 CFR 217.178 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is... pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations indicates that a substantial... modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after consulting with Neptune regarding...

50 CFR 217.178 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is... pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations indicates that a substantial... modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after consulting with Neptune regarding...

50 CFR 217.178 - Renewal of Letters of Authorization and adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... appropriate pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations, provided that: (1) NMFS is... pursuant to the adaptive management component of these regulations indicates that a substantial... modify or augment the existing mitigation or monitoring measures (after consulting with Neptune regarding...

Managing Complex IT Security Processes with Value Based Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

2009-01-01

Current trends indicate that IT security measures will need to greatly expand to counter the ever increasingly sophisticated, well-funded and/or economically motivated threat space. Traditional risk management approaches provide an effective method for guiding courses of action for assessment, and mitigation investments. However, such approaches no matter how popular demand very detailed knowledge about the IT security domain and the enterprise/cyber architectural context. Typically, the critical nature and/or high stakes require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach that provides reliable and consistent methods for rating vulnerabilities. As reported in earlier works, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System provides amore » comprehensive measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. This paper advocates a dependability measure that acknowledges the aggregate structure of complex system specifications, and accounts for variations by stakeholder, by specification components, and by verification and validation impact.« less

[Ecological misunderstanding, integrative approach, and potential industries in circular economy transition].

PubMed

Wang, Rusong

2005-12-01

Based on the Social-Economic-Natural Complex Ecosystem theory, this paper questioned 8 kinds of misunderstandings in current planning, incubation, development, and management of circular economy, which had led to either ultra-right or ultra-left actions in ecological and economic development. Rather than concentrated only on the 3-r micro-principles of "reduce-reuse-recycle", thise paper suggested 3-R macro-principles of "Rethinking-Reform-Refunction" for circular economy development. Nine kinds of eco-integrative strategies in industrial transition were put forward, i.e., food web-based horizontal/parallel coupling, life cycle-oriented vertical/serial coupling, functional service rather than products-oriented production, flexible and adaptive structure, ecosystem-based regional coupling, social integrity, comprehensive capacity building, employment enhancement, and respecting human dignity. Ten promising potential eco-industries in China's near-future circular economy development were proposed, such as the transition of traditional chemical fertilizer and pesticide industry to a new kind of industrial complex for agro-ecosystem management.

Fragmented Flows: Water Supply in Los Angeles County

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pincetl, Stephanie; Porse, Erik; Cheng, Deborah

2016-08-01

In the Los Angeles metropolitan region, nearly 100 public and private entities are formally involved in the management and distribution of potable water—a legacy rooted in fragmented urban growth in the area and late 19th century convictions about local control of services. Yet, while policy debates focus on new forms of infrastructure, restructured pricing mechanisms, and other technical fixes, the complex institutional architecture of the present system has received little attention. In this paper, we trace the development of this system, describe its interconnections and disjunctures, and demonstrate the invisibility of water infrastructure in LA in multiple ways—through mapping, statistical analysis, and historical texts. Perverse blessings of past water abundance led to a complex, but less than resilient, system with users accustomed to cheap, easily accessible water. We describe the lack of transparency and accountability in the current system, as well as its shortcomings in building needed new infrastructure and instituting new water rate structures. Adapting to increasing water scarcity and likely droughts must include addressing the architecture of water management.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Do adaptive comanagement processes lead to adaptive comanagement outcomes? A multicase study of long-term outcomes associated with the national riparian service team's place-based riparian assistance

Treesearch

Jill A. Smedstad; Hannah Gosnell

2013-01-01

Adaptive comanagement (ACM) is a novel approach to environmental governance that combines the dynamic learning features of adaptive management with the linking and network features of collaborative management. There is growing interest in the potential for ACM to resolve conflicts around natural resource management and contribute to greater social and ecological...

Effects of extended lay-off periods on performance and operator trust under adaptable automation.

PubMed

Chavaillaz, Alain; Wastell, David; Sauer, Jürgen

2016-03-01

Little is known about the long-term effects of system reliability when operators do not use a system during an extended lay-off period. To examine threats to skill maintenance, 28 participants operated twice a simulation of a complex process control system for 2.5 h, with an 8-month retention interval between sessions. Operators were provided with an adaptable support system, which operated at one of the following reliability levels: 60%, 80% or 100%. Results showed that performance, workload, and trust remained stable at the second testing session, but operators lost self-confidence in their system management abilities. Finally, the effects of system reliability observed at the first testing session were largely found again at the second session. The findings overall suggest that adaptable automation may be a promising means to support operators in maintaining their performance at the second testing session. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

78 FR 35312 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-06-12

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting... Service, announce a public meeting, teleconference and web-based meeting of the Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG). DATES: Public meeting, Teleconference, and web-based meeting: Tuesday June...

78 FR 49281 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting... Service, announce a public meeting, teleconference, and web-based meeting of the Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG). DATES: Public meeting, Teleconference, and web-based meeting: Tuesday...

78 FR 17226 - Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-20

...-FF08EACT00] Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group; Public Meeting, Teleconference and Web-Based Meeting... Service, announce a public meeting, teleconference and web-based meeting of the Trinity Adaptive Management Working Group (TAMWG). DATES: Public meeting, Teleconference, and web-based meeting: Monday April...

Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program 2 (DCERP2)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-05-01

6 2.3 Adapting the Monitoring Plan...magnitude of storms). In addition, installation managers need to understand the trade-offs between carbon management and other adaptive management...respond to climate change to understand the resiliency and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems 2. Building on DCERP1 findings to identify

Management for adaptation

Treesearch

John Innes; Linda A. Joyce; Seppo Kellomaki; Bastiaan Louman; Aynslie Ogden; Ian Thompson; Matthew Ayres; Chin Ong; Heru Santoso; Brent Sohngen; Anita Wreford

2009-01-01

This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major...

Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2010-01-01

Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Reducing uncertainty about objective functions in adaptive management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williams, B.K.

2012-01-01

This paper extends the uncertainty framework of adaptive management to include uncertainty about the objectives to be used in guiding decisions. Adaptive decision making typically assumes explicit and agreed-upon objectives for management, but allows for uncertainty as to the structure of the decision process that generates change through time. Yet it is not unusual for there to be uncertainty (or disagreement) about objectives, with different stakeholders expressing different views not only about resource responses to management but also about the appropriate management objectives. In this paper I extend the treatment of uncertainty in adaptive management, and describe a stochastic structure for the joint occurrence of uncertainty about objectives as well as models, and show how adaptive decision making and the assessment of post-decision monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties of both kinds. Different degrees of association between model and objective uncertainty lead to different patterns of learning about objectives. ?? 2011.

Complexity, Chaos, and Nonlinear Dynamics: A New Perspective on Career Development Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bloch, Deborah P.

2005-01-01

The author presents a theory of career development drawing on nonlinear dynamics and chaos and complexity theories. Career is presented as a complex adaptive entity, a fractal of the human entity. Characteristics of complex adaptive entities, including (a) autopiesis, or self-regeneration; (b) open exchange; (c) participation in networks; (d)…

Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management for Smart Manufacturing Systems

PubMed Central

Choo, Benjamin Y.; Adams, Stephen C.; Weiss, Brian A.; Marvel, Jeremy A.; Beling, Peter A.

2017-01-01

The Adaptive Multi-scale Prognostics and Health Management (AM-PHM) is a methodology designed to enable PHM in smart manufacturing systems. In application, PHM information is not yet fully utilized in higher-level decision-making in manufacturing systems. AM-PHM leverages and integrates lower-level PHM information such as from a machine or component with hierarchical relationships across the component, machine, work cell, and assembly line levels in a manufacturing system. The AM-PHM methodology enables the creation of actionable prognostic and diagnostic intelligence up and down the manufacturing process hierarchy. Decisions are then made with the knowledge of the current and projected health state of the system at decision points along the nodes of the hierarchical structure. To overcome the issue of exponential explosion of complexity associated with describing a large manufacturing system, the AM-PHM methodology takes a hierarchical Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach into describing the system and solving for an optimized policy. A description of the AM-PHM methodology is followed by a simulated industry-inspired example to demonstrate the effectiveness of AM-PHM. PMID:28736651

Managing lifelike behavior in a dynamic self-assembled system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ropp, Chad; Bachelard, Nicolas; Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Xiang

Self-organization can arise outside of thermodynamic equilibrium in a process of dynamic self-assembly. This is observed in nature, for example in flocking birds, but can also be created artificially with non-living entities. Such dynamic systems often display lifelike properties, including the ability to self-heal and adapt to environmental changes, which arise due to the collective and often complex interactions between the many individual elements. Such interactions are inherently difficult to predict and control, and limit the development of artificial systems. Here, we report a fundamentally new method to manage dynamic self-assembly through the direct external control of collective phenomena. Our system consists of a waveguide filled with mobile scattering particles. These particles spontaneously self-organize when driven by a coherent field, self-heal when mechanically perturbed, and adapt to changes in the drive wavelength. This behavior is governed by particle interactions that are completely mediated by coherent wave scattering. Compared to hydrodynamic interactions which lead to compact ordered structures, our system displays sinusoidal degeneracy and many different steady-state geometries that can be adjusted using the external field.

Evaluation of Adaptive Noise Management Technologies for School-Age Children with Hearing Loss.

PubMed

Wolfe, Jace; Duke, Mila; Schafer, Erin; Jones, Christine; Rakita, Lori

2017-05-01

Children with hearing loss experience significant difficulty understanding speech in noisy and reverberant situations. Adaptive noise management technologies, such as fully adaptive directional microphones and digital noise reduction, have the potential to improve communication in noise for children with hearing aids. However, there are no published studies evaluating the potential benefits children receive from the use of adaptive noise management technologies in simulated real-world environments as well as in daily situations. The objective of this study was to compare speech recognition, speech intelligibility ratings (SIRs), and sound preferences of children using hearing aids equipped with and without adaptive noise management technologies. A single-group, repeated measures design was used to evaluate performance differences obtained in four simulated environments. In each simulated environment, participants were tested in a basic listening program with minimal noise management features, a manual program designed for that scene, and the hearing instruments' adaptive operating system that steered hearing instrument parameterization based on the characteristics of the environment. Twelve children with mild to moderately severe sensorineural hearing loss. Speech recognition and SIRs were evaluated in three hearing aid programs with and without noise management technologies across two different test sessions and various listening environments. Also, the participants' perceptual hearing performance in daily real-world listening situations with two of the hearing aid programs was evaluated during a four- to six-week field trial that took place between the two laboratory sessions. On average, the use of adaptive noise management technology improved sentence recognition in noise for speech presented in front of the participant but resulted in a decrement in performance for signals arriving from behind when the participant was facing forward. However, the improvement with adaptive noise management exceeded the decrement obtained when the signal arrived from behind. Most participants reported better subjective SIRs when using adaptive noise management technologies, particularly when the signal of interest arrived from in front of the listener. In addition, most participants reported a preference for the technology with an automatically switching, adaptive directional microphone and adaptive noise reduction in real-world listening situations when compared to conventional, omnidirectional microphone use with minimal noise reduction processing. Use of the adaptive noise management technologies evaluated in this study improves school-age children's speech recognition in noise for signals arriving from the front. Although a small decrement in speech recognition in noise was observed for signals arriving from behind the listener, most participants reported a preference for use of noise management technology both when the signal arrived from in front and from behind the child. The results of this study suggest that adaptive noise management technologies should be considered for use with school-age children when listening in academic and social situations. American Academy of Audiology

Spatial Analysis of Soil Subsidence in Peat Meadow Areas in Friesland in Relation to Land and Water Management, Climate Change, and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brouns, Karlijn; Eikelboom, Tessa; Jansen, Peter C.; Janssen, Ron; Kwakernaak, Cees; van den Akker, Jan J. H.; Verhoeven, Jos T. A.

2015-02-01

Dutch peatlands have been subsiding due to peat decomposition, shrinkage and compression, since their reclamation in the 11th century. Currently, subsidence amounts to 1-2 cm/year. Water management in these areas is complex and costly, greenhouse gases are being emitted, and surface water quality is relatively poor. Regional and local authorities and landowners responsible for peatland management have recognized these problems. In addition, the Netherlands Royal Meteorological Institute predicts higher temperatures and drier summers, which both are expected to enhance peat decomposition. Stakeholder workshops have been organized in three case study areas in the province of Friesland to exchange knowledge on subsidence and explore future subsidence rates and the effects of land use and management changes on subsidence rates. Subsidence rates were up to 3 cm/year in deeply drained parcels and increased when we included climate change in the modeling exercises. This means that the relatively thin peat layers in this province (ca 1 m) would shrink or even disappear by the end of the century when current practices continue. Adaptation measures were explored, such as extensive dairy farming and the production of new crops in wetter conditions, but little experience has been gained on best practices. The workshops have resulted in useful exchange of ideas on possible measures and their consequences for land use and water management in the three case study areas. The province and the regional water board will use the results to develop land use and water management policies for the next decades.

Aquifer-yield continuum as a guide and typology for science-based groundwater management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pierce, Suzanne A.; Sharp, John M.; Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Mace, Robert E.; Eaton, David J.

2013-03-01

Groundwater availability is at the core of hydrogeology as a discipline and, simultaneously, the concept is the source of ambiguity for management and policy. Aquifer yield has undergone multiple definitions resulting in a range of scientific methods to calculate and model availability reflecting the complexity of combined scientific, management, policy, and stakeholder processes. The concept of an aquifer-yield continuum provides an approach to classify groundwater yields along a spectrum, from non-use through permissive sustained, sustainable, maximum sustained, safe, permissive mining to maximum mining yields, that builds on existing literature. Additionally, the aquifer-yield continuum provides a systems view of groundwater availability to integrate physical and social aspects in assessing management options across aquifer settings. Operational yield describes the candidate solutions for operational or technical implementation of policy, often relating to a consensus yield that incorporates human dimensions through participatory or adaptive governance processes. The concepts of operational and consensus yield address both the social and the technical nature of science-based groundwater management and governance.

Application of a Multimedia Service and Resource Management Architecture for Fault Diagnosis

PubMed Central

Castro, Alfonso; Sedano, Andrés A.; García, Fco. Javier; Villoslada, Eduardo

2017-01-01

Nowadays, the complexity of global video products has substantially increased. They are composed of several associated services whose functionalities need to adapt across heterogeneous networks with different technologies and administrative domains. Each of these domains has different operational procedures; therefore, the comprehensive management of multi-domain services presents serious challenges. This paper discusses an approach to service management linking fault diagnosis system and Business Processes for Telefónica’s global video service. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of an extended service management architecture based on Multi Agent Systems able to integrate the fault diagnosis with other different service management functionalities. This architecture includes a distributed set of agents able to coordinate their actions under the umbrella of a Shared Knowledge Plane, inferring and sharing their knowledge with semantic techniques and three types of automatic reasoning: heterogeneous, ontology-based and Bayesian reasoning. This proposal has been deployed and validated in a real scenario in the video service offered by Telefónica Latam. PMID:29283398

Application of a Multimedia Service and Resource Management Architecture for Fault Diagnosis.

PubMed

Castro, Alfonso; Sedano, Andrés A; García, Fco Javier; Villoslada, Eduardo; Villagrá, Víctor A

2017-12-28

Nowadays, the complexity of global video products has substantially increased. They are composed of several associated services whose functionalities need to adapt across heterogeneous networks with different technologies and administrative domains. Each of these domains has different operational procedures; therefore, the comprehensive management of multi-domain services presents serious challenges. This paper discusses an approach to service management linking fault diagnosis system and Business Processes for Telefónica's global video service. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of an extended service management architecture based on Multi Agent Systems able to integrate the fault diagnosis with other different service management functionalities. This architecture includes a distributed set of agents able to coordinate their actions under the umbrella of a Shared Knowledge Plane, inferring and sharing their knowledge with semantic techniques and three types of automatic reasoning: heterogeneous, ontology-based and Bayesian reasoning. This proposal has been deployed and validated in a real scenario in the video service offered by Telefónica Latam.

Assessing and managing multiple risks in a changing world ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University (Denmark) hosted a November 2015 workshop, Environmental Risk—Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World. This Focus article presents the consensus recommendations of 30 attendees from 9 countries regarding implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process; dealing with societal issues; risk-management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. The authors encourage both cross-disciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches to address their 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and nonchemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk-assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk-management process; 5) consider socioeconomics and increased transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference conditions and the proper ecological c

Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Roskilde University hosted a November 2015 workshop on “Environmental Risk – Assessing and Managing Multiple Risks in a Changing World”. Thirty attendees from 9 countries developed consensus recommendations regarding: implementation of a common currency (ecosystem services) for holistic environmental risk assessment and management; improvements to risk assessment and management in a complex, human-modified, and changing world; appropriate development of protection goals in a 2-stage process involving both universal and site-, region-, or problem-specific protection goals; addressing societal issues; risk management information needs; conducting risk assessment of risk management; and development of adaptive and flexible regulatory systems. We encourage both cross- and inter-disciplinary approaches to address 10 recommendations: 1) adopt ecosystem services as a common currency for risk assessment and management; 2) consider cumulative stressors (chemical and non-chemical) and determine which dominate to best manage and restore ecosystem services; 3) fully integrate risk managers and communities of interest into the risk assessment process; 4) fully integrate risk assessors and communities of interest into the risk management process; 5) consider socio-economics and increase transparency in both risk assessment and risk management; 6) recognize the ethical rights of humans and ecosystems to an adequate level of protection; 7) determine relevant reference con

Challenges to Native American health care.

PubMed

Noren, J; Kindig, D; Sprenger, A

1998-01-01

Native American health care programs face complex and unprecedented challenges resulting from the increased assumption of clinical operations by tribal authorities, shortfalls in Federal funding, modifications in state and Federal health and welfare programs, and intensifying involvement with managed care organizations. These challenges are further complicated by service populations that are increasing at a faster rate than the growth in funding. The authors conducted onsite surveys of 39 Native American health programs in 10 states in order to assess the organizational and management problems they faced. The trend toward transfer of health programs from the Indian Health Service to tribal operation seems likely to continue and accelerate. The survey results indicate that in order for programs to be effective in the long run, they will need to be guided by skilled managers able to adapt to these powerful changes in the health care environment.

Using evaluation to adapt health information outreach to the complex environments of community-based organizations.

PubMed

Olney, Cynthia A

2005-10-01

After arguing that most community-based organizations (CBOs) function as complex adaptive systems, this white paper describes the evaluation goals, questions, indicators, and methods most important at different stages of community-based health information outreach. This paper presents the basic characteristics of complex adaptive systems and argues that the typical CBO can be considered this type of system. It then presents evaluation as a tool for helping outreach teams adapt their outreach efforts to the CBO environment and thus maximize success. Finally, it describes the goals, questions, indicators, and methods most important or helpful at each stage of evaluation (community assessment, needs assessment and planning, process evaluation, and outcomes assessment). Literature from complex adaptive systems as applied to health care, business, and evaluation settings is presented. Evaluation models and applications, particularly those based on participatory approaches, are presented as methods for maximizing the effectiveness of evaluation in dynamic CBO environments. If one accepts that CBOs function as complex adaptive systems-characterized by dynamic relationships among many agents, influences, and forces-then effective evaluation at the stages of community assessment, needs assessment and planning, process evaluation, and outcomes assessment is critical to outreach success.

Optical engineering: understanding optical system by experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharf, Toralf

2017-08-01

Students have to be educated in theoretical and practical matters. Only one of them does not allow attacking complex problems in research, development, and management. After their study, students should be able to design, construct and analyze technical problems at highest levels of complexity. Who never experienced the difficulty of setting up measurements will not be able to understand, plan and manage such complex tasks in her/his future career. At EPFL a course was developed for bachelor education and is based on three pillars: concrete actions (enactive) to be done by the students, a synthesis of their work by writing a report (considered as the iconic part) and inputs from the teacher to generalize the findings and link it to a possible complete abstract description (symbolic). Intensive tutoring allowed an intermodal transfer between these categories. This EIS method originally introduced by Jerome Bruner for small children is particular well adapted for engineer education for which theoretical understanding often is not enough. The symbiosis of ex-cathedra lecture and practical work in a classroom-like situation presents an innovative step towards integrated learning that complements perfectly more abstract course principles like online courses.

@neurIST: infrastructure for advanced disease management through integration of heterogeneous data, computing, and complex processing services.

PubMed

Benkner, Siegfried; Arbona, Antonio; Berti, Guntram; Chiarini, Alessandro; Dunlop, Robert; Engelbrecht, Gerhard; Frangi, Alejandro F; Friedrich, Christoph M; Hanser, Susanne; Hasselmeyer, Peer; Hose, Rod D; Iavindrasana, Jimison; Köhler, Martin; Iacono, Luigi Lo; Lonsdale, Guy; Meyer, Rodolphe; Moore, Bob; Rajasekaran, Hariharan; Summers, Paul E; Wöhrer, Alexander; Wood, Steven

2010-11-01

The increasing volume of data describing human disease processes and the growing complexity of understanding, managing, and sharing such data presents a huge challenge for clinicians and medical researchers. This paper presents the @neurIST system, which provides an infrastructure for biomedical research while aiding clinical care, by bringing together heterogeneous data and complex processing and computing services. Although @neurIST targets the investigation and treatment of cerebral aneurysms, the system's architecture is generic enough that it could be adapted to the treatment of other diseases. Innovations in @neurIST include confining the patient data pertaining to aneurysms inside a single environment that offers clinicians the tools to analyze and interpret patient data and make use of knowledge-based guidance in planning their treatment. Medical researchers gain access to a critical mass of aneurysm related data due to the system's ability to federate distributed information sources. A semantically mediated grid infrastructure ensures that both clinicians and researchers are able to seamlessly access and work on data that is distributed across multiple sites in a secure way in addition to providing computing resources on demand for performing computationally intensive simulations for treatment planning and research.

Governance and management dynamics of landscape restoration at multiple scales: Learning from successful environmental managers in Sweden.

PubMed

Dawson, Lucas; Elbakidze, Marine; Angelstam, Per; Gordon, Johanna

2017-07-15

Due to a long history of intensive land and water use, habitat networks for biodiversity conservation are generally degraded in Sweden. Landscape restoration (LR) is an important strategy for achieving representative and functional green infrastructures. However, outcomes of LR efforts are poorly studied, particularly the dynamics of LR governance and management. We apply systems thinking methods to a series of LR case studies to analyse the causal structures underlying LR governance and management in Sweden. We show that these structures appear to comprise of an interlinked system of at least three sets of drivers and four core processes. This system exhibits many characteristics of a transformative change towards an integrated, adaptive approach to governance and management. Key challenges for Swedish LR projects relate to institutional and regulatory flexibility, the timely availability of sufficient funds, and the management of learning and knowledge production processes. In response, successful project leaders develop several key strategies to manage complexity and risk, and enhance perceptions of the attractiveness of LR projects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrated care in the emergency department: a complex adaptive systems perspective.

PubMed

Nugus, Peter; Carroll, Katherine; Hewett, David G; Short, Alison; Forero, Roberto; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

2010-12-01

Emergency clinicians undertake boundary-work as they facilitate patient trajectories through the Emergency Department (ED). Emergency clinicians must manage the constantly-changing dynamics at the boundaries of the ED and other hospital departments and organizations whose services emergency clinicians seek to integrate. Integrating the care that differing clinical groups provide, the services EDs offer, and patients' needs across this journey is challenging. The journey is usually accounted for in a linear way - as a "continuity of care" problem. In this paper, we instead conceptualize integrated care in the ED using a complex adaptive systems (CAS) perspective. A CAS perspective accounts for the degree to which other departments and units outside of the ED are integrated, and appropriately described, using CAS concepts and language. One year of ethnographic research was conducted, combining observation and semi-structured interviews, in the EDs of two tertiary referral hospitals in Sydney, Australia. We found the CAS approach to be salient to analyzing integrated care in the ED because the processes of categorization, diagnosis and discharge are primarily about the linkages between services, and the communication and negotiation required to enact those linkages, however imperfectly they occur in practice. Emergency clinicians rapidly process large numbers of high-need patients, in a relatively efficient system of care inadequately explained by linear models. A CAS perspective exposes integrated care as management of the patient trajectory within porous, shifting and negotiable boundaries. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2016-05-01

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

Robustness and management adaptability in tropical rangelands: a viability-based assessment under the non-equilibrium paradigm.

PubMed

Accatino, F; Sabatier, R; De Michele, C; Ward, D; Wiegand, K; Meyer, K M

2014-08-01

Rangelands provide the main forage resource for livestock in many parts of the world, but maintaining long-term productivity and providing sufficient income for the rancher remains a challenge. One key issue is to maintain the rangeland in conditions where the rancher has the greatest possibility to adapt his/her management choices to a highly fluctuating and uncertain environment. In this study, we address management robustness and adaptability, which increase the resilience of a rangeland. After reviewing how the concept of resilience evolved in parallel to modelling views on rangelands, we present a dynamic model of rangelands to which we applied the mathematical framework of viability theory to quantify the management adaptability of the system in a stochastic environment. This quantification is based on an index that combines the robustness of the system to rainfall variability and the ability of the rancher to adjust his/her management through time. We evaluated the adaptability for four possible scenarios combining two rainfall regimes (high or low) with two herding strategies (grazers only or mixed herd). Results show that pure grazing is viable only for high-rainfall regimes, and that the use of mixed-feeder herds increases the adaptability of the management. The management is the most adaptive with mixed herds and in rangelands composed of an intermediate density of trees and grasses. In such situations, grass provides high quantities of biomass and woody plants ensure robustness to droughts. Beyond the implications for management, our results illustrate the relevance of viability theory for addressing the issue of robustness and adaptability in non-equilibrium environments.