Assessing risks to multiple resources affected by wildfire and forest management using an integrated probabilistic framework

Treesearch

Steven P. Norman; Danny C. Lee; Sandra Jacobson; Christine Damiani

2010-01-01

The tradeoffs that surround forest management are inherently complex, often involving multiple temporal and spatial scales. For example, conflicts may result when fuel treatments are designed to mediate long-term fuel hazards, but activities could impair sensitive aquatic habitat or degrade wildlife habitat in the short term. This complexity makes it hard for managers...

Capacity planning for electronic waste management facilities under uncertainty: multi-objective multi-time-step model development.

PubMed

Poonam Khanijo Ahluwalia; Nema, Arvind K

2011-07-01

Selection of optimum locations for locating new facilities and decision regarding capacities at the proposed facilities is a major concern for municipal authorities/managers. The decision as to whether a single facility is preferred over multiple facilities of smaller capacities would vary with varying priorities to cost and associated risks such as environmental or health risk or risk perceived by the society. Currently management of waste streams such as that of computer waste is being done using rudimentary practices and is flourishing as an unorganized sector, mainly as backyard workshops in many cities of developing nations such as India. Uncertainty in the quantification of computer waste generation is another major concern due to the informal setup of present computer waste management scenario. Hence, there is a need to simultaneously address uncertainty in waste generation quantities while analyzing the tradeoffs between cost and associated risks. The present study aimed to address the above-mentioned issues in a multi-time-step, multi-objective decision-support model, which can address multiple objectives of cost, environmental risk, socially perceived risk and health risk, while selecting the optimum configuration of existing and proposed facilities (location and capacities).

Estimating and controlling workplace risk: an approach for occupational hygiene and safety professionals.

PubMed

Toffel, Michael W; Birkner, Lawrence R

2002-07-01

The protection of people and physical assets is the objective of health and safety professionals and is accomplished through the paradigm of anticipation, recognition, evaluation, and control of risks in the occupational environment. Risk assessment concepts are not only used by health and safety professionals, but also by business and financial planners. Since meeting health and safety objectives requires financial resources provided by business and governmental managers, the hypothesis addressed here is that health and safety risk decisions should be made with probabilistic processes used in financial decision-making and which are familiar and recognizable to business and government planners and managers. This article develops the processes and demonstrates the use of incident probabilities, historic outcome information, and incremental impact analysis to estimate risk of multiple alternatives in the chemical process industry. It also analyzes how the ethical aspects of decision-making can be addressed in formulating health and safety risk management plans. It is concluded that certain, easily understood, and applied probabilistic risk assessment methods used by business and government to assess financial and outcome risk have applicability to improving workplace health and safety in three ways: 1) by linking the business and health and safety risk assessment processes to securing resources, 2) by providing an additional set of tools for health and safety risk assessment, and 3) by requiring the risk assessor to consider multiple risk management alternatives.

Social transformation in transdisciplinary natural hazard management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attems, Marie-Sophie; Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Due to annual increases of natural hazard losses, there is a discussion among authorities and communities in Europe on innovative solutions to increase resilience, and consequently, business-as-usual in risk management practices is often questioned. Therefore, the current situation of risk management requests a societal transformation to response adequately and effectively to the new global dynamics. An emerging concept is the implementation of multiple-use mitigation systems against hazards such as floods, avalanches and land-slides. However, one key aspect refers to the involvement of knowledge outside academic research. Therefore, transdisciplinary knowledge can be used to discuss vital factors which are needed to upscale the implementation of multiple-use mitigation measures. The method used in this contribution is an explorative scenario analysis applied in Austria and processes the knowledge gained in transdisciplinary workshops. The scenario analysis combines qualitative data and the quantitative relations in order to generate a set of plausible future outcomes. The goal is to establish a small amount of consistent scenarios, which are efficient and thereby representative as well as significantly different from each other. The results of the discussions among relevant stakeholders within the workshops and a subsequent quantitative analysis, showed that vital variables influencing the multiple use of mitigation measures are the (1) current legislation, (2) risk acceptance among authorities and the public, (3) land-use pressure, (4) the demand for innovative solutions, (5) the available technical standards and possibilities and (6) finally the policy entrepreneurship. Four different scenarios were the final result of the analysis. Concluding the results, in order to make multiple-use alleviations systems possible contemporary settings concerning risk management strategies will have to change in the future. Legislation and thereby current barriers have to be altered in order to create a possibility for innovative solutions. If the state of the art in technical perspectives allows constructions with limited additional risk, multiple-use structures are an option in risk management. The present and future land-use pressure also intensifies the economic interest in finding and accepting such measures.

Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

EPA Science Inventory

While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

Li-Fraumeni syndrome: cancer risk assessment and clinical management.

PubMed

McBride, Kate A; Ballinger, Mandy L; Killick, Emma; Kirk, Judy; Tattersall, Martin H N; Eeles, Rosalind A; Thomas, David M; Mitchell, Gillian

2014-05-01

Carriers of germline mutations in the TP53 gene, encoding the cell-cycle regulator and tumour suppressor p53, have a markedly increased risk of cancer-related morbidity and mortality during both childhood and adulthood, and thus require appropriate and effective cancer risk management. However, the predisposition of such patients to multiorgan tumorigenesis presents a specific challenge for cancer risk management programmes. Herein, we review the clinical implications of germline mutations in TP53 and the evidence for cancer screening and prevention strategies in individuals carrying such mutations, as well as examining the potential psychosocial implications of lifelong management for a ubiquitous cancer risk. In addition, we propose an evidence-based framework for the clinical management of TP53 mutation carriers and provide a platform for addressing the management of other cancer predisposition syndromes that can affect multiple organs.

Smoldering multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Landgren, Ola; Mateos, María-Victoria

2015-01-01

Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic clonal plasma cell disorder. SMM is distinguished from monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance by a much higher risk of progression to multiple myeloma (MM). There have been major advances in the diagnosis, prognosis, and management of SMM in the last few years. These include a revised disease definition, identification of several new prognostic factors, a classification based on underlying cytogenetic changes, and new treatment options. Importantly, a subset of patients previously considered SMM is now reclassified as MM on the basis of biomarkers identifying patients with an ≥80% risk of progression within 2 years. SMM has assumed greater significance on the basis of recent trials showing that early therapy can be potentially beneficial to patients. As a result, there is a need to accurately diagnose and risk-stratify patients with SMM, including routine incorporation of modern imaging and laboratory techniques. In this review, we outline current concepts in diagnosis and risk stratification of SMM, and provide specific recommendations on the management of SMM. PMID:25838344

[First aid and management of multiple trauma: in-hospital trauma care].

PubMed

Boschin, Matthias; Vordemvenne, Thomas

2012-11-01

Injuries remain the leading cause of death in children and young adults. Management of multiple trauma patients has improved in recent years by quality initiatives (trauma network, S3 guideline "Polytrauma"). On this basis, strong links with preclinical management, structured treatment algorithms, training standards (ATLS®), clear diagnostic rules and an established risk- and quality management are the important factors of a modern emergency room trauma care. We describe the organizational components that lead to successful management of trauma in hospital. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

Candidate biomarker discovery and selection for ‘Granny Smith' superficial scald risk management and diagnosis, poster board

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Discovery of candidate biomarkers for superficial scald, a peel disorder that develops during storage of susceptible apple cultivars, is part of a larger project aimed at developing biomarker-based risk-management and diagnostic tools for multiple apple postharvest disorders (http://www.tfrec.wsu.ed...

Comprehensive approach to the management of the patient with multiple rib fractures: a review and introduction of a bundled rib fracture management protocol.

PubMed

Witt, Cordelie E; Bulger, Eileen M

2017-01-01

Rib fractures are common among patients sustaining blunt trauma, and are markers of severe bodily and solid organ injury. They are associated with high morbidity and mortality, including multiple pulmonary complications, and can lead to chronic pain and disability. Clinical and radiographic scoring systems have been developed at several institutions to predict risk of complications. Clinical strategies to reduce morbidity have been studied, including multimodal pain management, catheter-based analgesia, pulmonary hygiene, and operative stabilization. In this article, we review risk factors for morbidity and complications, intervention strategies, and discuss experience with bundled clinical pathways for rib fractures. In addition, we introduce the multidisciplinary rib fracture management protocol used at our level I trauma center.

Management of high-risk Myeloma: an evidence-based review of treatment strategies.

PubMed

Lehners, Nicola; Hayden, Patrick J; Goldschmidt, Hartmut; Raab, Marc-Steffen

2016-08-01

Despite the progress made in the treatment of patients with multiple myeloma over recent decades, a significant cohort with high-risk disease as defined by specific clinical and genetic criteria continue to respond poorly to standard treatment. These patients represent a particular challenge to the treating physician and require early identification as well as personalized treatment strategies. In this review, we discuss the prognostic impact of adverse clinical, radiological and genetic factors, evaluate available scoring systems and highlight key aspects of the therapeutic management of high-risk myeloma. MEDLINE and recent scientific meetings' databases were searched for the keywords 'high-risk' and 'multiple myeloma' and relevant studies relating to both diagnostic and therapeutic approaches were identified. Expert commentary: A case is made for intensive induction using combinations of novel agents, early high-dose therapy supported by autologous stem cell transplantation and the widespread use of maintenance therapies. Novel therapeutic options, especially in the field of immunotherapy, are currently explored in clinical trials and have the potential to further improve outcomes for patients with high-risk multiple myeloma.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering myeloma (SMM): a practical guide to management.

PubMed

Maciocia, Nicola; Wechalekar, Ashutosh; Yong, Kwee

2017-12-01

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance and smoldering multiple myeloma are precursor conditions of symptomatic multiple myeloma (MM). Diagnostic principles are aimed at excluding MM requiring therapy, other conditions associated with paraproteins that may require different management, and risk stratifying patients for the purposes of tailored follow-up and investigation. The International Myeloma Working Group have recently published a revised definition of MM, which singles out a small group of patients with smoldering multiple myeloma who are at very high risk of progression and organ damage; such patients are now included under the definition of MM and recommended to start anti-myeloma treatment. Furthermore, the recently published National Institute of Health and Care Excellence guideline recommends cross-sectional imaging techniques in place of skeletal survey. These recent recommendations are discussed, and practical guidance for investigation and management are presented. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A comparative risk assessment framework for wildland fire management: the 2010 cohesive strategy science report

Treesearch

David E. Calkin; Alan A. Ager; Matthew P. Thompson; Mark A. Finney; Danny C. Lee; Thomas M. Quigley; Charles W. McHugh; Karin L. Riley; Julie M. Gilbertson-Day

2011-01-01

The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-based approach to fire and fuels management and suggest analyses that may be applied at multiple scales to inform...

Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

PubMed

Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-11-01

The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Review of clinical practice guidelines for the management of LDL-related risk.

PubMed

Morris, Pamela B; Ballantyne, Christie M; Birtcher, Kim K; Dunn, Steven P; Urbina, Elaine M

2014-07-15

Managing risk related to low-density lipoprotein (LDL) is vital in therapy for patients at risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events given its important etiologic role in atherogenesis. Despite decades of research showing reduction of ASCVD risk with multiple approaches to lowering of LDL cholesterol, there continue to be significant gaps in care with inadequate numbers of patients receiving standard of care lipid-lowering therapy. Confusion regarding implementation of the multiple published clinical practice guidelines has been identified as one contributor to suboptimal management of LDL-related risk. This review summarizes the current guidelines for reduction of LDL-related cardiovascular risk provided by a number of major professional societies, which have broad applicability to diverse populations worldwide. Statements have varied in the process and methodology of development of recommendations, the grading system for level and strength of evidence, the inclusion or exclusion of expert opinion, the suggested ASCVD risk assessment tool, the lipoproteins recommended for risk assessment, and the lipoprotein targets of therapy. The similarities and differences among important guidelines in the United States and internationally are discussed, with recommendations for future strategies to improve consistency in approaches to LDL-related ASCVD risk and to reduce gaps in implementation of evidence-based therapies. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China

PubMed Central

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-01-01

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales. PMID:26901210

Assessment of the Casualty Risk of Multiple Meteorological Hazards in China.

PubMed

Xu, Wei; Zhuo, Li; Zheng, Jing; Ge, Yi; Gu, Zhihui; Tian, Yugang

2016-02-17

A study of the frequency, intensity, and risk of extreme climatic events or natural hazards is important for assessing the impacts of climate change. Many models have been developed to assess the risk of multiple hazards, however, most of the existing approaches can only model the relative levels of risk. This paper reports the development of a method for the quantitative assessment of the risk of multiple hazards based on information diffusion. This method was used to assess the risks of loss of human lives from 11 types of meteorological hazards in China at the prefectural and provincial levels. Risk curves of multiple hazards were obtained for each province and the risks of 10-year, 20-year, 50-year, and 100-year return periods were mapped. The results show that the provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions) in southeastern China are at higher risk of multiple meteorological hazards as a result of their geographical location and topography. The results of this study can be used as references for the management of meteorological disasters in China. The model can be used to quantitatively calculate the risks of casualty, direct economic losses, building collapse, and agricultural losses for any hazards at different spatial scales.

Risk Management for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sebastian, J.; Brezovic, Philip

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is an extremely complex system, both technically and programmatically. The Space Station must support a wide range of payloads and missions. It must be launched in numerous launch packages and be safely assembled and operated in the harsh environment of space. It is being designed and manufactured by many organizations, including the prime contractor, Boeing, the NASA institutions, and international partners and their contractors. Finally, the ISS has multiple customers, (e.g., the Administration, Congress, users, public, international partners, etc.) with contrasting needs and constraints. It is the ISS Risk Management Office strategy to proactively and systematically manages risks to help ensure ISS Program success. ISS program follows integrated risk management process (both quantitative and qualitative) and is integrated into ISS project management. The process and tools are simple and seamless and permeate to the lowest levels (at a level where effective management can be realized) and follows the continuous risk management methodology. The risk process assesses continually what could go wrong (risks), determine which risks need to be managed, implement strategies to deal with those risks, and measure effectiveness of the implemented strategies. The process integrates all facets of risk including cost, schedule and technical aspects. Support analysis risk tools like PRA are used to support programatic decisions and assist in analyzing risks.

The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) Approach to Reducing Risk of Flooding and Water Pollution in Farmed Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hewett, Caspar J. M.; Quinn, Paul; Wilkinson, Mark

2014-05-01

Intense farming plays a key role in contributing to problems such as increased flood risk, soil erosion and poor water quality. This means that there is great potential for agricultural practitioners to play a major part in reducing multiple risks through better land-use management. Greater understanding by farmers, land managers, practitioners and policy-makers of the ways in which farmed landscapes contribute to risks and the ways in which those risks might be mitigated can be an essential component in improving practice. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) approach involves the development of a range of visualization and communication tools to help compare the risks associated with different farming practices and explore options to manage runoff. DSMs are simple decision support systems intended for use by the non-expert which combine expert hydrological evidence with local knowledge of runoff patterns. They are developed through direct engagement with stakeholders, ensuring that the examples and language used makes sense to end-users. A key element of the tools is that they show the current conditions of the land and describe extremes of land-use management within a hydrological and agricultural land-management context. The tools include conceptual models of a series of pre-determined runoff scenarios, providing the end-user with a variety of potential land management practices and runoff management options. Visual examples of different farming practices are used to illustrate the impact of good and bad practice on specific problems such as nutrient export or risk of flooding. These show both how current conditions cause problems downstream and how systems are vulnerable to changes in climate and land-use intensification. The level of risk associated with a particular land management option is represented by a mapping on a two- or three-dimensional matrix. Interactive spreadsheet-based tools are developed in which multiple questions allow the user to explore different management options and see the impact of decisions plotted as a risk level on the DSM. They employ a ranking methodology combined with a simple mapping of information onto a visual matrix. A nominal scoring system is used to rank higher or lower runoff risk. The end-user can then assess numerous land use and runoff management options to lower risk. The objective is to encourage policy makers, catchment managers and farmers to produce resilient local landscapes at minimal cost. A number of DSMs have been developed successfully over a number of years working with a variety of stakeholders in the UK, including the Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM), The Nitrate Export Risk Matrix (NO3RM) and arable and livestock versions of the Floods and Agriculture Risk Matrix (FARM) (available from http://research.ncl.ac.uk/thefarm). Despite uncertainty, the tools do contribute to stakeholders having greater confidence in making decisions to make landscapes more resilient. DSMs have been taken up widely in the UK by bodies such as the Environment Agency and Defra, and have been successfully employed within wider decision support frameworks alongside modelling at multiple scales. Such tools could be used in similar farmed landscapes internationally.

Managing comorbidities in COPD

PubMed Central

Hillas, Georgios; Perlikos, Fotis; Tsiligianni, Ioanna; Tzanakis, Nikolaos

2015-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Age and smoking are common risk factors for COPD and other illnesses, often leading COPD patients to demonstrate multiple coexisting comorbidities. COPD exacerbations and comorbidities contribute to the overall severity in individual patients. Clinical trials investigating the treatment of COPD routinely exclude patients with multiple comorbidities or advanced age. Clinical practice guidelines for a specific disease do not usually address comorbidities in their recommendations. However, the management and the medical intervention in COPD patients with comorbidities need a holistic approach that is not clearly established worldwide. This holistic approach should include the specific burden of each comorbidity in the COPD severity classification scale. Further, the pharmacological and nonpharmacological management should also include optimal interventions and risk factor modifications simultaneously for all diseases. All health care specialists in COPD management need to work together with professionals specialized in the management of the other major chronic diseases in order to provide a multidisciplinary approach to COPD patients with multiple diseases. In this review, we focus on the major comorbidities that affect COPD patients. We present an overview of the problems faced, the reasons and risk factors for the most commonly encountered comorbidities, and the burden on health care costs. We also provide a rationale for approaching the therapeutic options of the COPD patient afflicted by comorbidity. PMID:25609943

Managing Multiple Risk Factors.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

to the racial differences in cardiovascular risk and events among women. High levels of socioeconomic stress, higher dietary fat intake and sedentary ... lifestyle are more prevalent among black than white women. The proposed study will address the issue of whether the cluster of risk factors for

Understanding Suicide Across the Lifespan: A United States Perspective of Suicide Risk Factors, Assessment & Management.

PubMed

Steele, Ian H; Thrower, Natasha; Noroian, Paul; Saleh, Fabian M

2018-01-01

Suicide is a troubling, preventable phenomenon. Prior to attempts, individuals often seek help, prompting practitioners to perform risk assessments that ideally use evidence-based risk management strategies. A literature review was performed using Harvard Countway Library of Medicine, Google Scholar, PubMed. Key words used were "Forensic Science," "Suicide Risk Management," "Pediatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Adult Suicide Risk Factors," "Geriatric Suicide Risk Factors," "Suicide Risk Assessment." Parameters limited articles to studies/reviews completed in the past twenty years in the United States. Results indicated predictors of suicide in juveniles were insomnia, burdensomeness, and recent conflicts with family or a romantic partner. Adults had greater risk if male, substance abusing, with marital/job loss. Elderly individuals with multiple medical comorbidities, hopelessness, and isolation were at higher risk. Everyone evaluated should be screened for access to firearms. Management of suicide risk involves providing the least restrictive form of treatment which maintains an individual's safety. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

The multiple stressor ecological risk assessment for the mercury-contaminated South River and upper Shenandoah River using the Bayesian network-relative risk model.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Ayre, Kimberley K; Johns, Annie F; Summers, Heather M; Stinson, Jonah; Harris, Meagan J; Herring, Carlie E; Markiewicz, April J

2017-01-01

We have conducted a regional scale risk assessment using the Bayesian Network Relative Risk Model (BN-RRM) to calculate the ecological risks to the South River and upper Shenandoah River study area. Four biological endpoints (smallmouth bass, white sucker, Belted Kingfisher, and Carolina Wren) and 4 abiotic endpoints (Fishing River Use, Swimming River Use, Boating River Use, and Water Quality Standards) were included in this risk assessment, based on stakeholder input. Although mercury (Hg) contamination was the original impetus for the site being remediated, other chemical and physical stressors were evaluated. There were 3 primary conclusions from the BN-RRM results. First, risk varies according to location, type and quality of habitat, and exposure to stressors within the landscape. The patterns of risk can be evaluated with reasonable certitude. Second, overall risk to abiotic endpoints was greater than overall risk to biotic endpoints. By including both biotic and abiotic endpoints, we are able to compare risk to endpoints that represent a wide range of stakeholder values. Third, whereas Hg reduction is the regulatory priority for the South River, Hg is not the only stressor driving risk to the endpoints. Ecological and habitat stressors contribute risk to the endpoints and should be considered when managing this site. This research provides the foundation for evaluating the risks of multiple stressors of the South River to a variety of endpoints. From this foundation, tools for the evaluation of management options and an adaptive management tools have been forged. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:85-99. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Multiple Intravenous Infusions Phase 2b: Laboratory Study

PubMed Central

Pinkney, Sonia; Fan, Mark; Chan, Katherine; Koczmara, Christine; Colvin, Christopher; Sasangohar, Farzan; Masino, Caterina; Easty, Anthony; Trbovich, Patricia

2014-01-01

Background Administering multiple intravenous (IV) infusions to a single patient via infusion pump occurs routinely in health care, but there has been little empirical research examining the risks associated with this practice or ways to mitigate those risks. Objectives To identify the risks associated with multiple IV infusions and assess the impact of interventions on nurses’ ability to safely administer them. Data Sources and Review Methods Forty nurses completed infusion-related tasks in a simulated adult intensive care unit, with and without interventions (i.e., repeated-measures design). Results Errors were observed in completing common tasks associated with the administration of multiple IV infusions, including the following (all values from baseline, which was current practice): setting up and programming multiple primary continuous IV infusions (e.g., 11.7% programming errors) identifying IV infusions (e.g., 7.7% line-tracing errors) managing dead volume (e.g., 96.0% flush rate errors following IV syringe dose administration) setting up a secondary intermittent IV infusion (e.g., 11.3% secondary clamp errors) administering an IV pump bolus (e.g., 11.5% programming errors) Of 10 interventions tested, 6 (1 practice, 3 technology, and 2 educational) significantly decreased or even eliminated errors compared to baseline. Limitations The simulation of an adult intensive care unit at 1 hospital limited the ability to generalize results. The study results were representative of nurses who received training in the interventions but had little experience using them. The longitudinal effects of the interventions were not studied. Conclusions Administering and managing multiple IV infusions is a complex and risk-prone activity. However, when a patient requires multiple IV infusions, targeted interventions can reduce identified risks. A combination of standardized practice, technology improvements, and targeted education is required. PMID:26316919

The Ability of American Football Helmets to Manage Linear Acceleration With Repeated High-Energy Impacts.

PubMed

Cournoyer, Janie; Post, Andrew; Rousseau, Philippe; Hoshizaki, Blaine

2016-03-01

Football players can receive up to 1400 head impacts per season, averaging 6.3 impacts per practice and 14.3 impacts per game. A decrease in the capacity of a helmet to manage linear acceleration with multiple impacts could increase the risk of traumatic brain injury. To investigate the ability of football helmets to manage linear acceleration with multiple high-energy impacts. Descriptive laboratory study. Laboratory. We collected linear-acceleration data for 100 impacts at 6 locations on 4 helmets of different models currently used in football. Impacts 11 to 20 were compared with impacts 91 to 100 for each of the 6 locations. Linear acceleration was greater after multiple impacts (91-100) than after the first few impacts (11-20) for the front, front-boss, rear, and top locations. However, these differences are not clinically relevant as they do not affect the risk for head injury. American football helmet performance deteriorated with multiple impacts, but this is unlikely to be a factor in head-injury causation during a game or over a season.

Risks and burden of viral respiratory tract infections in patients with multiple myeloma in the era of immunomodulatory drugs and bortezomib: experience at an Australian Cancer Hospital.

PubMed

Teh, Benjamin W; Worth, Leon J; Harrison, Simon J; Thursky, Karin A; Slavin, Monica A

2015-07-01

Infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with multiple myeloma. The epidemiology, risk factors and outcomes of viral respiratory tract infections (vRTI) are not well described in patients with multiple myeloma managed with novel agents, the current standard of care. Patients with myeloma from 2009 to 2012 who tested positive on respiratory virus multiplex polymerase chain reaction had clinical, radiological and microbiological records reviewed. The Fourth European Conference on Infections in Leukaemia (ECIL-4) definitions of RTI were applied. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis of risk factors was performed using vRTI as the evaluable outcome. Of 330 patients, 75 (22.7%) tested positive for a total of 100 vRTI episodes. All patients received thalidomide, lenalidomide or bortezomib in combination with myeloma therapies (median of three treatment regimens). vRTI occurred most commonly in patients with progressive disease, and receipt of more than three lines of myeloma therapy was associated with an increased risk of vRTI (p < 0.01). Amongst key respiratory pathogens, influenza was associated with the highest hospital admission rate (66.7%), ICU admission rate (41.6%) and mortality (33.3%) whilst RSV was associated with prolonged hospital stay. Patients with multiple myeloma and advanced disease managed with multiple lines of therapy are at risk for vRTI, and targeted interventions for prevention/treatment are required.

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and realistic because they explicitly account for important considerations managers implicitly weigh when making decisions, including competing management objectives, uncertainty in potential outcomes, and risk tolerance.

A sensible climate solution for the boreal forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astrup, Rasmus; Bernier, Pierre Y.; Genet, Hélène; Lutz, David A.; Bright, Ryan M.

2018-01-01

Climate change could increase fire risk across most of the managed boreal forest. Decreasing this risk by increasing the proportion of broad-leaved tree species is an overlooked mitigation-adaption strategy with multiple benefits.

Marine and Hydrokinetic Technology Development Risk Management Framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snowberg, David; Weber, Jochem

2015-09-01

Over the past decade, the global marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) industry has suffered a number of serious technological and commercial setbacks. To help reduce the risks of industry failures and advance the development of new technologies, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed an MHK Risk Management Framework. By addressing uncertainties, the MHK Risk Management Framework increases the likelihood of successful development of an MHK technology. It covers projects of any technical readiness level (TRL) or technical performance level (TPL) and all risk types (e.g. technological risk, regulatory risk, commercial risk) over themore » development cycle. This framework is intended for the development and deployment of a single MHK technology—not for multiple device deployments within a plant. This risk framework is intended to meet DOE’s risk management expectations for the MHK technology research and development efforts of the Water Power Program (see Appendix A). It also provides an overview of other relevant risk management tools and documentation.1 This framework emphasizes design and risk reviews as formal gates to ensure risks are managed throughout the technology development cycle. Section 1 presents the recommended technology development cycle, Sections 2 and 3 present tools to assess the TRL and TPL of the project, respectively. Section 4 presents a risk management process with design and risk reviews for actively managing risk within the project, and Section 5 presents a detailed description of a risk registry to collect the risk management information into one living document. Section 6 presents recommendations for collecting and using lessons learned throughout the development process.« less

Optimization of Landscape Services under Uncoordinated Management by Multiple Landowners

PubMed Central

Porto, Miguel; Correia, Otília; Beja, Pedro

2014-01-01

Landscapes are often patchworks of private properties, where composition and configuration patterns result from cumulative effects of the actions of multiple landowners. Securing the delivery of services in such multi-ownership landscapes is challenging, because it is difficult to assure tight compliance to spatially explicit management rules at the level of individual properties, which may hinder the conservation of critical landscape features. To deal with these constraints, a multi-objective simulation-optimization procedure was developed to select non-spatial management regimes that best meet landscape-level objectives, while accounting for uncoordinated and uncertain response of individual landowners to management rules. Optimization approximates the non-dominated Pareto frontier, combining a multi-objective genetic algorithm and a simulator that forecasts trends in landscape pattern as a function of management rules implemented annually by individual landowners. The procedure was demonstrated with a case study for the optimum scheduling of fuel treatments in cork oak forest landscapes, involving six objectives related to reducing management costs (1), reducing fire risk (3), and protecting biodiversity associated with mid- and late-successional understories (2). There was a trade-off between cost, fire risk and biodiversity objectives, that could be minimized by selecting management regimes involving ca. 60% of landowners clearing the understory at short intervals (around 5 years), and the remaining managing at long intervals (ca. 75 years) or not managing. The optimal management regimes produces a mosaic landscape dominated by stands with herbaceous and low shrub understories, but also with a satisfactory representation of old understories, that was favorable in terms of both fire risk and biodiversity. The simulation-optimization procedure presented can be extended to incorporate a wide range of landscape dynamic processes, management rules and quantifiable objectives. It may thus be adapted to other socio-ecological systems, particularly where specific patterns of landscape heterogeneity are to be maintained despite imperfect management by multiple landowners. PMID:24465833

Application of WATERSHED ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT Methods to Watershed Management

EPA Science Inventory

Watersheds are frequently used to study and manage environmental resources because hydrologic boundaries define the flow of contaminants and other stressors. Ecological assessments of watersheds are complex because watersheds typically overlap multiple jurisdictional boundaries,...

Application of Watershed Ecological Risk Assessment Methods to Watershed Management

EPA Science Inventory

Watersheds are frequently used to study and manage environmental resources because hydrologic boundaries define the flow of contaminants and other stressors. Ecological assessments of watersheds are complex because watersheds typically overlap multiple jurisdictional boundaries,...

Territory management an appropriate approach for taking into account dynamic risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

The territorial approach in risk analysis is well established in scientific communications in recent years, especially in the francophone literature. It is an especially appropriate approach for exploring a large number of criteria and factors influencing, on the territory, the composition of the vulnerabilities and risks. In these sense, this approach is appropriate to identify not only risks due to natural hazards but also social and environmental risks. Our case study explores the catastrophic landslide, a collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock in Los Chorros, in the municipality of San Cristobal Verapaz-Guatemala, in January 2009. We demonstrate that the same natural hazard has different consequences within this territory and may also increase or even create new vulnerabilities and risks for the population. The analysis shows that the same event can endanger various aspects of the territory: resources, functions (agriculture, or houses uses for example) and allocations and highlights the different types of vulnerabilities that land users (i.e., farmers, merchants transport drivers) face. To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors choose one vulnerability among a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context) and with this choice they define their own acceptable risk limits. To give an example, the transport driver choose to reduce the economic vulnerability when going to the local market and crossing the landslide (physical vulnerability). In the context of a developing country with weak development and limited resources, land users that become the Risk managers after the disaster are compelled to prioritize between different actions for reducing risks This study provides a novel approach to risk management by adding a political science and geography dimension through the territory approach for improving our understanding of multi-hazard and multi-risk management. Based on findings from this case study, this work asserts that risk is not unequivocal. On the contrary, in the case of the Los Chorros, the "primary" risk (the landslide), as evaluated by the authorities, was not perceived as such by the local community, which prioritized economic risks by creating their own road through the landslide area in defiance of authorities. In other words, certain attributes and characteristics of risk will be emphasized by some actors over others, (i.e. economic considerations over the perceived probability of another landslide). Their priorities will depend on their needs and mandates and as priorities change, so individual definitions of risk may change over time. This paper demonstrates that the risk is not uniform, that multiple risks persist especially in a developing country context becomes diffuse, changes or endures because it depends on the implications on the territory and on the risk definition made by the actors. The risk is variable, the result of a choice because its existence is attributed by the characteristics or criteria of vulnerability fostered by actors in their territories. Finally, the case study demonstrates that in developing countries, actors are forced to address and prioritize multiple risks due to limited resources. In this context, the challenge for managers of natural hazards is to move from risk management in the strict sense (i.e., pure hazard approach) to a broader risk management, taking into consideration what is important for the society and for the functioning of systems. Territory management in this sense is an appropriate approach for taking into account multiple stakeholder priorities, their relationships, available resources and limitations.

Management of severe asthma: targeting the airways, comorbidities and risk factors.

PubMed

Gibson, Peter G; McDonald, Vanessa M

2017-06-01

Severe asthma is a complex heterogeneous disease that is refractory to standard treatment and is complicated by multiple comorbidities and risk factors. In mild to moderate asthma, the burden of disease can be minimised by inhaled corticosteroids, bronchodilators and self-management education. In severe asthma, however, management is more complex. When patients with asthma continue to experience symptoms and exacerbations despite optimal management, severe refractory asthma (SRA) should be suspected and confirmed, and other aetiologies ruled out. Once a diagnosis of SRA is established, patients should undergo a systematic and multidimensional assessment to identify inflammatory endotypes, risk factors and comorbidities, with targeted and individualised management initiated. We describe a practical approach to assessment and management of patients with SRA. © 2017 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

YOUNG ADULT DATING RELATIONSHIPS AND THE MANAGEMENT OF SEXUAL RISK.

PubMed

Manning, Wendy D; Giordano, Peggy C; Longmore, Monica A; Flanigan, Christine M

2012-04-01

Young adult involvement in sexual behavior typically occurs within a relationship context, but we know little about the ways in which specific features of romantic relationships influence sexual decision-making. Prior work on sexual risk taking focuses attention on health issues rather than relationship dynamics. We draw on data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) (n = 475) to examine the association between qualities and dynamics of current/most recent romantic relationships such as communication and emotional processes, conflict, demographic asymmetries, and duration and the management of sexual risk. We conceptualize 'risk management' as encompassing multiple domains, including (1) questioning the partner about previous sexual behaviors/risks, (2) using condoms consistently, and (3) maintaining sexual exclusivity within the relationship. We identify distinct patterns of risk management among dating young adults and find that specific qualities and dynamics of these relationships are linked to variations in risk management. Results from this paper suggest the need to consider relational dynamics in efforts to target and influence young adult sexual risk-taking and reduce STIs, including HIV.

A risk-adapted approach is beneficial in the management of bilateral femoral shaft fractures in multiple trauma patients: an analysis based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society.

PubMed

Steinhausen, Eva; Lefering, Rolf; Tjardes, Thorsten; Neugebauer, Edmund A M; Bouillon, Bertil; Rixen, Dieter

2014-05-01

Today, there is a trend toward damage-control orthopedics (DCO) in the management of multiple trauma patients with long bone fractures. However, there is no widely accepted concept. A risk-adapted approach seems to result in low acute morbidity and mortality. Multiple trauma patients with bilateral femoral shaft fractures (FSFs) are considered to be more severely injured. The objective of this study was to validate the risk-adapted approach in the management of multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF. Data analysis is based on the trauma registry of the German Trauma Society (1993-2008, n = 42,248). Multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF were analyzed in subgroups according to the type of primary operative strategy. Outcome parameters were mortality and major complications as (multiple) organ failure and sepsis. A total of 379 patients with bilateral FSF were divided into four groups as follows: (1) no operation (8.4%), (2) bilateral temporary external fixation (DCO) (50.9%), bilateral primary definitive osteosynthesis (early total care [ETC]) (25.1%), and primary definitive osteosynthesis of one FSF and DCO contralaterally (mixed) (15.6%). Compared with the ETC group, the DCO group was more severely injured. The incidence of (multiple) organ failure and mortality rates were higher in the DCO group but without significance. Adjusted for injury severity, there was no significant difference of mortality rates between DCO and ETC. Injury severity and mortality rates were significantly increased in the no-operation group. The mixed group was similar to the ETC group regarding injury severity and outcome. In Germany, both DCO and ETC are practiced in multiple trauma patients with bilateral FSF so far. The unstable or potentially unstable patient is reasonably treated with DCO. The clearly stable patient is reasonably treated with nailing. When in doubt, the patient is probably not totally stable, and the safest precaution may be to use DCO as a risk-adapted approach. Therapeutic study, level IV. Epidemiologic study, level III.

Assessing risk from a stakeholder perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooper, L. P.

2003-01-01

Planetary exploration missions are subject to a vast array of interpretations of 'success' based on the concerns of multiple stakeholder groups. While project risk management generally focuses on issues of cost/schedule constraints or reliability issues, a broader interpretation of 'risk' as it applies to stakeholders such as sponsors (e.g., NASA), the public at large, the scientific community, the home organization, and the project team itself can provide important insights into the full spectrum of risk that needs to be managed. This paper presents a stakeholder view of risk which is divided into failure, not-a-failure, success, and stunning-success zones. Using the Mars Pathfinder mission as an example, an alternative interpretation of the risks to that mission is presented from the view of key stakeholders. The implications of the stakeholder perspective to project risk management are addressed.

Decrypting Information Sensitivity: Risk, Privacy, and Data Protection Law in the United States and the European Union

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fazlioglu, Muge

2017-01-01

This dissertation examines the risk-based approach to privacy and data protection and the role of information sensitivity within risk management. Determining what information carries the greatest risk is a multi-layered challenge that involves balancing the rights and interests of multiple actors, including data controllers, data processors, and…

Optimal groundwater security management policies by control of inexact health risks under dual uncertainty in slope factors.

PubMed

Lu, Hongwei; Li, Jing; Ren, Lixia; Chen, Yizhong

2018-05-01

Groundwater remediation is a complicated system with time-consuming and costly challenges, which should be carefully controlled by appropriate groundwater management. This study develops an integrated optimization method for groundwater remediation management regarding cost, contamination distribution and health risk under multiple uncertainties. The integration of health risk into groundwater remediation optimization management is capable of not only adequately considering the influence of health risk on optimal remediation strategies, but also simultaneously completing remediation optimization design and risk assessment. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming approach is presented to handle multiple uncertain properties in the process of health risk assessment. The capabilities and effectiveness of the developed method are illustrated through an application of a naphthalene contaminated case in Anhui, China. Results indicate that (a) the pump-and-treat remediation system leads to a low naphthalene contamination but high remediation cost for a short-time remediation, and natural attenuation significantly affects naphthalene removal from groundwater for a long-time remediation; (b) the weighting coefficients have significant influences on the remediation cost and the performances both for naphthalene concentrations and health risks; (c) an increased level of slope factor (sf) for naphthalene corresponds to more optimal strategies characterized by higher environmental benefits and lower economic sacrifice. The developed method could be simultaneously beneficial for public health and environmental protection. Decision makers could obtain the most appropriate remediation strategies according to their specific requirements with high flexibility of economic, environmental, and risk concerns. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

2015-04-01

The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

Review of Qualitative Approaches for the Construction Industry: Designing a Risk Management Toolbox

PubMed Central

Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J.; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-01-01

Objectives This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Methods Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. Results This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. Conclusion The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions. PMID:22953194

Review of qualitative approaches for the construction industry: designing a risk management toolbox.

PubMed

Zalk, David M; Spee, Ton; Gillen, Matt; Lentz, Thomas J; Garrod, Andrew; Evans, Paul; Swuste, Paul

2011-06-01

This paper presents the framework and protocol design for a construction industry risk management toolbox. The construction industry needs a comprehensive, systematic approach to assess and control occupational risks. These risks span several professional health and safety disciplines, emphasized by multiple international occupational research agenda projects including: falls, electrocution, noise, silica, welding fumes, and musculoskeletal disorders. Yet, the International Social Security Association says, "whereas progress has been made in safety and health, the construction industry is still a high risk sector." Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) employ about 80% of the world's construction workers. In recent years a strategy for qualitative occupational risk management, known as Control Banding (CB) has gained international attention as a simplified approach for reducing work-related risks. CB groups hazards into stratified risk 'bands', identifying commensurate controls to reduce the level of risk and promote worker health and safety. We review these qualitative solutions-based approaches and identify strengths and weaknesses toward designing a simplified CB 'toolbox' approach for use by SMEs in construction trades. This toolbox design proposal includes international input on multidisciplinary approaches for performing a qualitative risk assessment determining a risk 'band' for a given project. Risk bands are used to identify the appropriate level of training to oversee construction work, leading to commensurate and appropriate control methods to perform the work safely. The Construction Toolbox presents a review-generated format to harness multiple solutions-based national programs and publications for controlling construction-related risks with simplified approaches across the occupational safety, health and hygiene professions.

Management of optic neuritis

PubMed Central

Menon, Vimla; Saxena, Rohit; Misra, Ruby; Phuljhele, Swati

2011-01-01

Optic neuritis is an inflammatory condition of the optic nerve characterized by a sudden onset of unilateral visual loss, usually affecting young females. Demyelination associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause in regions where MS is prevalent; while in other places, there are a substantial proportion of cases where infective or autoimmune causes are seen. Optic Neuritis Treatment Trial (ONTT) was the first major study that provided information on the natural history, role of steroids in treatment and risk of development of MS. Subsequently, numerous clinical trials have evaluated different modalities of management of optic neuritis and MS. The Controlled High-Risk Subjects Avonex Multiple Sclerosis Prevention Study (CHAMPS); the Prevention of Relapses and Disability by Interferon β-1a Subcutaneously in Multiple Sclerosis (PRISMS) Trial; and, most recently, the Betaferon in Newly Emerging Multiple Sclerosis for Initial Treatment (BENEFIT) Study have provided large amount of information on the natural history of optic neuritis and management options available. However, due to the low prevalence of MS reported in Asian studies, high cost of therapy and indefinite time period of treatment, it may not be cost effective to start interferon therapy in most cases. PMID:21350281

The Best Anticoagulation Therapy in Multiple-Trauma Patients with Mechanical Heart Valves: Evaluation of Latest Guidelines and Studies.

PubMed

Moeinipour, Aliasghar; Zarifian, Ahmadreza; Sheikh Andalibi, Mohammad Sobhan; Shamloo, Alireza Sepehri; Ahmadabadi, Ali; Amouzeshi, Ahmad; Hoseinikhah, Hamid

2015-12-22

It is common practice for patients with prosthetic cardiac devices, especially heart valve prosthesis, arterial stents, defibrillators, and pacemaker devices, to use anticoagulation treatment. When these patients suffer from multiple trauma after motor vehicle accidents, the best medical management for this challenging position is mandatory. This strategy should include a rapid diagnosis of all possible multiple organ injuries, with special attention to anticoagulation therapy so as to minimize the risk of thromboembolism complication in prosthetic devices. In this review, we describe the best medical management for patients with multiple trauma who use anticoagulants after heart valve replacement. We searched electronic databases PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase, and Google Scholar using the following terms: anticoagulant, warfarin, heparin, and multiple trauma. Also, similar studies suggested by the databases were included. Non-English articles were excluded from the review. For patients who use anticoagulation therapy, teamwork between cardiac surgeons, general surgeons, anesthesiologists, and cardiologists is essential. For optimal medical management, multiple consults between members of this team is mandatory for rapid diagnosis of all possible damaged organs, with special attention to the central nervous system, chest, and abdominal traumas. With this strategy, it is important to take note of anticoagulation drugs to minimize the risk of thromboembolism complications in cardiac devices. The best anticoagulant agents for emergency operations in patients with multiple trauma who are using an anticoagulant after heart valve replacement are fresh frozen plasma (FFP) and prothrombin complex concentrates (PCC).

Governance of environmental risk: new approaches to managing stakeholder involvement.

PubMed

Benn, Suzanne; Dunphy, Dexter; Martin, Andrew

2009-04-01

Disputes concerning industrial legacies such as the disposal of toxic wastes illustrate changing pressures on corporations and governments. Business and governments are now confronted with managing the expectations of a society increasingly aware of the social and environmental impacts and risks associated with economic development and demanding more equitable distribution and democratic management of such risks. The closed managerialist decision-making of the powerful bureaucracies and corporations of the industrial era is informed by traditional management theory which cannot provide a framework for the adequate governance of these risks. Recent socio-political theories have conceptualised some key themes that must be addressed in a more fitting approach to governance. We identify more recent management and governance theory which addresses these themes and develop a process-based approach to governance of environmental disputes that allows for the evolving nature of stakeholder relations in a highly complex multiple stakeholder arena.

JCL Implementation On A Human Spaceflight Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulpa, Vyga; Karpowich, Mike; Abel, Diana; Archiable, Wes; Carson, William

2013-01-01

Joint Confidence Level (JCL) analysis focuses on the integration of traditionally stove-piped programmatic components (schedule, cost and risk) to establish projected resource and schedule requirements at various confidence levels and to identify programmatic cost and schedule risk drivers. SLS Program consists of multiple Prime Contractors managed by independent SLS Elements which are integrated using SE&I and Program Management. SLS further integrates with GSDO and MPCV through ESD integrated working groups.

Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach.

PubMed

Liu, Jing; Li, Yongping; Huang, Guohe; Fu, Haiyan; Zhang, Junlong; Cheng, Guanhui

2017-06-01

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function (θ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints (q i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model's applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.

Using Integrated Earth and Social Science Data for Disaster Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Downs, R. R.; Chen, R. S.; Yetman, G.

2016-12-01

Society faces many different risks from both natural and technological hazards. In some cases, disaster risk managers focus on only a few risks, e.g., in regions where a single hazard such as earthquakes dominate. More often, however, disaster risk managers deal with multiple hazards that pose diverse threats to life, infrastructure, and livelihoods. From the viewpoint of scientists, hazards are often studied based on traditional disciplines such as seismology, hydrology, climatology, and epidemiology. But from the viewpoint of disaster risk managers, data are needed on all hazards in a specific region and on the exposure and vulnerability of population, infrastructure, and economic resources and activity. Such managers also need to understand how hazards, exposures, and vulnerabilities may interact, and human and environmental systems respond, to hazard events, as in the case of the Fukushima nuclear disaster that followed from the Sendai earthquake and tsunami. In this regard, geospatial tools that enable visualization and analysis of both Earth and social science data can support the use case of disaster risk managers who need to quickly assess where specific hazard events occur relative to population and critical infrastructure. Such information can help them assess the potential severity of actual or predicted hazard events, identify population centers or key infrastructure at risk, and visualize hazard dynamics, e.g., earthquakes and their aftershocks or the paths of severe storms. This can then inform efforts to mitigate risks across multiple hazards, including reducing exposure and vulnerability, strengthening system resiliency, improving disaster response mechanisms, and targeting mitigation resources to the highest or most critical risks. We report here on initial efforts to develop hazard mapping tools that draw on open web services and support simple spatial queries about population exposure. The NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) Hazards Mapper, a web-based mapping tool, enables users to estimate population living in areas subject to flood or tornado warnings, near recent earthquakes, or around critical infrastructure. The HazPop mobile app, implemented for iOS devices, utilizes location services to support disaster risk managers working in field conditions.

Modeling Success: Using Preenrollment Data to Identify Academically At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gansemer-Topf, Ann M.; Compton, Jonathan; Wohlgemuth, Darin; Forbes, Greg; Ralston, Ekaterina

2015-01-01

Improving student success and degree completion is one of the core principles of strategic enrollment management. To address this principle, institutional data were used to develop a statistical model to identify academically at-risk students. The model employs multiple linear regression techniques to predict students at risk of earning below a…

Management of atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Moukabary, Talal; Gonzalez, Mario D

2015-07-01

Atrial fibrillation is a very common clinical problem with a high prevalence that is expected to rise over time because of increasing risk factors (eg, age, obesity, hypertension). This high prevalence is also associated with high cost, because atrial fibrillation represents about 1% of overall health care spending. The management of atrial fibrillation involves multiple facets: (1) management of underlying disease if present and the management of atrial fibrillation risk factors, (2) prevention of thromboembolism, (3) control of the ventricular rate during atrial fibrillation, and (4) restoration and maintenance of normal sinus rhythm. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Management and Outcomes Among Chinese Hospitalized Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease or Multiple Risk Factors.

PubMed

Yang, Jingang; Yang, Yuejin; Gu, Hongqiu; Li, Wei; Hu, Dayi

2016-02-01

We assessed the management and outcomes among hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD), or with multiple (≥ 2) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (multiple risk factors [MRFs]). We retrospectively studied 3732 hospitalized patients of either CV disease or ≥ 2 risk factors for atherothrombosis from October 2004 to January 2005. Outcomes included CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for atherothrombotic events. About one-third had disease involving ≥ 1 vascular bed. Medication was more intense in patients with CAD than in others. The lowest use of statins and antiplatelet treatment was in the PAD-only group. Patients with PAD experienced a higher CV mortality (5.1%) than the patients with CAD (3.73%) or stroke (4.1%), P < .001. Cardiovascular death ranged from 1.2% for patients with MRFs, 2.8% for patients with 1-bed disease, 4.7% for patients with 2-bed disease to 6.4% for patients with 3-bed disease (P for trend <.001). For hospitalized patients with established atherosclerotic arterial disease, a substantial increase in CV event rates occurs with increasing numbers of affected arterial beds. Patients with PAD were at an especially high risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

Review of the novelties from the 32nd ECTRIMS Congress, 2016, presented at the 9th Post-ECTRIMS Meeting (I).

PubMed

Fernandez, O; Oterino, A; Oreja-Guevara, C; Prieto, J M; Mendibe-Bilbao, M M; Garcia-Merino, J A; Ramio-Torrenta, Ll; Ginestal, R; Meca-Lallana, J E; Romero-Pinel, L; Munoz, D; Oliva-Nacarino, P; Calles-Hernandez, M C; Izquierdo, G; Martinez-Gines, M L; Saiz, A; Comabella, M; Casanova-Estruch, B; Brieva, Ll; Arroyo, R; Rodriguez-Antiguedad, A

2017-07-01

For the ninth year in a row the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting has been held in Madrid (Spain) with the aim of presenting and discussing the hottest issues debated at the ECTRIMS Congress by renowned specialists in multiple sclerosis in our country. One outcome of this scientific activity, endorsed by the Spanish Neurology Society, is this review article, which is published in two parts. This first part addresses family planning, pregnancy management and the role of breastfeeding in women with multiple sclerosis. Attention is drawn to the paediatric population, to magnetic resonance imaging features and to the genetic-environmental risk factors for developing the disease in children, without neglecting the risk factors for development in adults. The review updates the epidemiology of cognitive deterioration in patients with multiple sclerosis, the advantages and disadvantages of available assessment tools, and current management approaches, while also insisting on the importance of cognitive involvement during the course of the disease. Furthermore, the concept of individualised, precision medicine is introduced, from the diagnosis of the disease until its treatment, with the controversies that inevitably arise in patient management, above all with regard to the change of treatment and the handling of associated risks.

Big data and high-performance analytics in structural health monitoring for bridge management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alampalli, Sharada; Alampalli, Sandeep; Ettouney, Mohammed

2016-04-01

Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) can be a vital tool for effective bridge management. Combining large data sets from multiple sources to create a data-driven decision-making framework is crucial for the success of SHM. This paper presents a big data analytics framework that combines multiple data sets correlated with functional relatedness to convert data into actionable information that empowers risk-based decision-making. The integrated data environment incorporates near real-time streams of semi-structured data from remote sensors, historical visual inspection data, and observations from structural analysis models to monitor, assess, and manage risks associated with the aging bridge inventories. Accelerated processing of dataset is made possible by four technologies: cloud computing, relational database processing, support from NOSQL database, and in-memory analytics. The framework is being validated on a railroad corridor that can be subjected to multiple hazards. The framework enables to compute reliability indices for critical bridge components and individual bridge spans. In addition, framework includes a risk-based decision-making process that enumerate costs and consequences of poor bridge performance at span- and network-levels when rail networks are exposed to natural hazard events such as floods and earthquakes. Big data and high-performance analytics enable insights to assist bridge owners to address problems faster.

Application of risk-based multiple criteria decision analysis for selection of the best agricultural scenario for effective watershed management.

PubMed

Javidi Sabbaghian, Reza; Zarghami, Mahdi; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Sharifi, Mohammad Bagher; Herman, Matthew R; Daneshvar, Fariborz

2016-03-01

Effective watershed management requires the evaluation of agricultural best management practice (BMP) scenarios which carefully consider the relevant environmental, economic, and social criteria involved. In the Multiple Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) process, scenarios are first evaluated and then ranked to determine the most desirable outcome for the particular watershed. The main challenge of this process is the accurate identification of the best solution for the watershed in question, despite the various risk attitudes presented by the associated decision-makers (DMs). This paper introduces a novel approach for implementation of the MCDM process based on a comparative neutral risk/risk-based decision analysis, which results in the selection of the most desirable scenario for use in the entire watershed. At the sub-basin level, each scenario includes multiple BMPs with scores that have been calculated using the criteria derived from two cases of neutral risk and risk-based decision-making. The simple additive weighting (SAW) operator is applied for use in neutral risk decision-making, while the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) and induced OWA (IOWA) operators are effective for risk-based decision-making. At the watershed level, the BMP scores of the sub-basins are aggregated to calculate each scenarios' combined goodness measurements; the most desirable scenario for the entire watershed is then selected based on the combined goodness measurements. Our final results illustrate the type of operator and risk attitudes needed to satisfy the relevant criteria within the number of sub-basins, and how they ultimately affect the final ranking of the given scenarios. The methodology proposed here has been successfully applied to the Honeyoey Creek-Pine Creek watershed in Michigan, USA to evaluate various BMP scenarios and determine the best solution for both the stakeholders and the overall stream health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Taking Risk Assessment and Management to the Next Level: Program-Level Risk Analysis to Enable Solid Decision-Making on Priorities and Funding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nelson, J. G.; Morton, R. L.; Castillo, C.

2011-02-01

A multi-level (facility and programmatic) risk assessment was conducted for the facilities in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities (RTBF) Program and results were included in a new Risk Management Plan (RMP), which was incorporated into the fiscal year (FY) 2010 Integrated Plans. Risks, risk events, probability, consequence(s), and mitigation strategies were identified and captured, for most scope areas (i.e., risk categories) during the facilitated risk workshops. Risk mitigations (i.e., efforts in addition to existing controls) were identified during the facilitated risk workshops when the risk event was identified. Risk mitigation strategies fell intomore » two broad categories: threats or opportunities. Improvement projects were identified and linked to specific risks they mitigate, making the connection of risk reduction through investments for the annual Site Execution Plan. Due to the amount of that was collected, analysis to be performed, and reports to be generated, a Risk Assessment/ Management Tool (RAMtool) database was developed to analyze the risks in real-time, at multiple levels, which reinforced the site-level risk management process and procedures. The RAMtool database was developed and designed to assist in the capturing and analysis of the key elements of risk: probability, consequence, and impact. The RAMtool calculates the facility-level and programmatic-level risk factors to enable a side-by-side comparison to see where the facility manager and program manager should focus their risk reduction efforts and funding. This enables them to make solid decisions on priorities and funding to maximize the risk reduction. A more active risk management process was developed where risks and opportunities are actively managed, monitored, and controlled by each facility more aggressively and frequently. risk owners have the responsibility and accountability to manage their assigned risk in real-time, using the RAMtool database.« less

Operationalizing the assessment and management of violence risk in the short-term.

PubMed

Doyle, Michael; Logan, Caroline

2012-01-01

Assessing risk of violence in the short term is crucial for managing and preventing violence, especially in institutions such as psychiatric units and prisons. Despite a lack of consensus on the definition of "short term", a number of recent tools and guidelines have been developed to aid short-term clinical decision-making. Whereas the supporting evidence for the new tools is impressive, limitations remain in terms of the focus on prediction, limited consideration of strengths, and poor integration with formulation and risk management. The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) is a brief clinical guide for the dynamic assessment of risks, strengths and treatability. It focuses on short-term risks and the characteristics of the individual that, if changed, might lead to an increase or decrease in risk. The START has the potential to operationalize the structured professional judgment (SPJ) approach in order to inform the evaluation of multiple risk domains relevant to everyday psychiatric clinical practice. However, explicit guidance on integrating risk assessment, formulation and management is limited in the START and this paper describes the SPJ approach, reviews recent developments in approaches to risk, and considers how the START can be used to inform SPJ approaches and link risk assessment, formulation, and management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bow-tie diagrams for risk management in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Culwick, M D; Merry, A F; Clarke, D M; Taraporewalla, K J; Gibbs, N M

2016-11-01

Bow-tie analysis is a risk analysis and management tool that has been readily adopted into routine practice in many high reliability industries such as engineering, aviation and emergency services. However, it has received little exposure so far in healthcare. Nevertheless, its simplicity, versatility, and pictorial display may have benefits for the analysis of a range of healthcare risks, including complex and multiple risks and their interactions. Bow-tie diagrams are a combination of a fault tree and an event tree, which when combined take the shape of a bow tie. Central to bow-tie methodology is the concept of an undesired or 'Top Event', which occurs if a hazard progresses past all prevention controls. Top Events may also occasionally occur idiosyncratically. Irrespective of the cause of a Top Event, mitigation and recovery controls may influence the outcome. Hence the relationship of hazard to outcome can be viewed in one diagram along with possible causal sequences or accident trajectories. Potential uses for bow-tie diagrams in anaesthesia risk management include improved understanding of anaesthesia hazards and risks, pre-emptive identification of absent or inadequate hazard controls, investigation of clinical incidents, teaching anaesthesia risk management, and demonstrating risk management strategies to third parties when required.

YOUNG ADULT DATING RELATIONSHIPS AND THE MANAGEMENT OF SEXUAL RISK

PubMed Central

Manning, Wendy D.; Giordano, Peggy C.; Longmore, Monica A.; Flanigan, Christine M.

2012-01-01

Young adult involvement in sexual behavior typically occurs within a relationship context, but we know little about the ways in which specific features of romantic relationships influence sexual decision-making. Prior work on sexual risk taking focuses attention on health issues rather than relationship dynamics. We draw on data from the Toledo Adolescent Relationships Study (TARS) (n = 475) to examine the association between qualities and dynamics of current/most recent romantic relationships such as communication and emotional processes, conflict, demographic asymmetries, and duration and the management of sexual risk. We conceptualize ‘risk management’ as encompassing multiple domains, including (1) questioning the partner about previous sexual behaviors/risks, (2) using condoms consistently, and (3) maintaining sexual exclusivity within the relationship. We identify distinct patterns of risk management among dating young adults and find that specific qualities and dynamics of these relationships are linked to variations in risk management. Results from this paper suggest the need to consider relational dynamics in efforts to target and influence young adult sexual risk-taking and reduce STIs, including HIV. PMID:23805015

Integrating Human Factors into Space Vehicle Processing for Risk Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodbury, Sarah; Richards, Kimberly J.

2008-01-01

This presentation will discuss the multiple projects performed in United Space Alliance's Human Engineering Modeling and Performance (HEMAP) Lab, improvements that resulted from analysis, and the future applications of the HEMAP Lab for risk assessment by evaluating human/machine interaction and ergonomic designs.

Infections in patients with multiple sclerosis: Implications for disease-modifying therapy.

PubMed

Celius, E G

2017-11-01

Patients with multiple sclerosis have an increased risk of infections compared to the general population. The increased risk has been described for decades and is not alone attributed to the use of disease-modifying drugs, but secondary to the disability. The introduction of more potent immunomodulatory drugs may cause an additional challenge, and depending on the mechanism of action, a treatment-induced increased risk of bacterial, viral, fungal or parasitic infections is observed. The choice of treatment in the individual patient with infections and multiple sclerosis must be guided by the drugs' specific mechanism of action, the drug-specific risk of infection and comorbidities. Increased monitoring and follow-up through treatment registries is warranted to increase our understanding and thereby improve management. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Managing the Student with Severe Food Allergies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson, Joanne M.; Ficca, Michelle

2012-01-01

School nurses play a key role in managing students with food allergies. It is becoming more common to encounter students with severe allergies to multiple foods, putting them at risk for anaphylaxis. It is essential that the school nurse have a clear understanding of food allergies and how to effectively manage students in the school setting.…

Emergency department management of shoulder dystocia.

PubMed

Del Portal, Daniel A; Horn, Amanda E; Vilke, Gary M; Chan, Theodore C; Ufberg, Jacob W

2014-03-01

Precipitous obstetric deliveries can occur outside of the labor and delivery suite, often in the emergency department (ED). Shoulder dystocia is an obstetric emergency with significant risk of adverse outcome. To review multiple techniques for managing a shoulder dystocia in the ED. We review various techniques and approaches for achieving delivery in the setting of shoulder dystocia. These include common maneuvers, controversial interventions, and interventions of last resort. Emergency physicians should be familiar with multiple techniques for managing a shoulder dystocia to reduce the chances of fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

3D Printing Provides a Precise Approach in the Treatment of Tetralogy of Fallot, Pulmonary Atresia with Major Aortopulmonary Collateral Arteries.

PubMed

Anwar, Shafkat; Rockefeller, Toby; Raptis, Demetrios A; Woodard, Pamela K; Eghtesady, Pirooz

2018-02-03

Patients with tetralogy of Fallot, pulmonary atresia, and multiple aortopulmonary collateral arteries (Tet PA MAPCAs) have a wide spectrum of anatomy and disease severity. Management of these patients can be challenging and often require multiple high-risk surgical and interventional catheterization procedures. These interventions are made challenging by complex anatomy that require the proceduralist to mentally reconstruct three-dimensional anatomic relationships from two-dimensional images. Three-dimensional (3D) printing is an emerging medical technology that provides added benefits in the management of patients with Tet PA MAPCAs. When used in combination with current diagnostic modalities and procedures, 3D printing provides a precise approach to the management of these challenging, high-risk patients. Specifically, 3D printing enables detailed surgical and interventional planning prior to the procedure, which may improve procedural outcomes, decrease complications, and reduce procedure-related radiation dose and contrast load.

Incremental Benefit of a Home Visit Following Discharge for Patients with Multiple Chronic Conditions Receiving Transitional Care

PubMed Central

Jackson, Carlos; Kasper, Elizabeth W.; Williams, Christianna

2016-01-01

Abstract Transitional care management is effective at reducing hospital readmissions among patients with multiple chronic conditions, but evidence is lacking on the relative benefit of the home visit as a component of transitional care. The sample included non-dual Medicaid recipients with multiple chronic conditions enrolled in Community Care of North Carolina (CCNC), with a hospital discharge between July 2010 and December 2012. Using claims data and care management records, this study retrospectively examined whether home visits reduced the odds of 30-day readmission compared to less intensive transitional care support, using multivariate logistic regression to control for demographic and clinical characteristics. Additionally, the researchers examined group differences within clinical risk strata on inpatient admissions and total cost of care in the 6 months following hospital discharge. Of 35,174 discharges receiving transitional care from a CCNC care manager, 21% (N = 7468) included a home visit. In multivariate analysis, home visits significantly reduced the odds of readmission within 30 days (odds ratio = 0.52, 95% confidence interval 0.48–0.57). At the 6-month follow-up, home visits were associated with fewer inpatient admissions within 4 of 6 clinical risk strata, and lower total costs of care for highest risk patients (average per member per month cost difference $970; P < 0.01). For complex chronic patients, home visits reduced the likelihood of a 30-day readmission by almost half compared to less intensive forms of nurse-led transitional care support. Higher risk patients experienced the greatest benefit in terms of number of inpatient admissions and total cost of care in the 6 months following discharge. (Population Health Management 2016;19:163–170) PMID:26431255

A hierarchical-multiobjective framework for risk management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haimes, Yacov Y.; Li, Duan

1991-01-01

A broad hierarchical-multiobjective framework is established and utilized to methodologically address the management of risk. United into the framework are the hierarchical character of decision-making, the multiple decision-makers at separate levels within the hierarchy, the multiobjective character of large-scale systems, the quantitative/empirical aspects, and the qualitative/normative/judgmental aspects. The methodological components essentially consist of hierarchical-multiobjective coordination, risk of extreme events, and impact analysis. Examples of applications of the framework are presented. It is concluded that complex and interrelated forces require an analysis of trade-offs between engineering analysis and societal preferences, as in the hierarchical-multiobjective framework, to successfully address inherent risk.

Achieving Privacy in a Federated Identity Management System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landau, Susan; Le van Gong, Hubert; Wilton, Robin

Federated identity management allows a user to efficiently authenticate and use identity information from data distributed across multiple domains. The sharing of data across domains blurs security boundaries and potentially creates privacy risks. We examine privacy risks and fundamental privacy protections of federated identity- management systems. The protections include minimal disclosure and providing PII only on a “need-to-know” basis. We then look at the Liberty Alliance system and analyze previous privacy critiques of that system. We show how law and policy provide privacy protections in federated identity-management systems, and that privacy threats are best handled using a combination of technology and law/policy tools.

Current evaluation and management of spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis.

PubMed

McTimoney, C A Michelle; Micheli, Lyle J

2003-02-01

Spondylolysis occurs with a prevalence of 4% to 6% in the general population. Although the etiology of this lesion is still unclear, it has been shown to have both hereditary and acquired risk factors, with an increased prevalence in men and athletes participating in certain high-risk sports. Spondylolisthesis occurs in a significant proportion of individuals with bilateral spondylolysis. Predicting risk factors for progression of the slip in spondylolisthesis has proven difficult. Multiple imaging techniques are helpful in the diagnosis of spondylolysis and spondylolisthesis, with recent research addressing the utility of magnetic resonance imaging in the diagnosis and management of pars lesions. The management guidelines have remained largely unchanged since early recommendations. Recently, the addition of a bone growth stimulator to the management of difficult cases has shown promise.

A challenge for land and risk managers: differents stakeholders, differents definitions of the risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandez, M.; Ruegg, J.

2012-04-01

In developing countries, mountain populations and territories are subject to multiple risks and vulnerabilities. In addition, they face even greater challenges than developed countries due to lack of knowledge, resources and technology. There are many different types of actors in society that manage risk at various scales and levels (i.e. engineers, geologists, administrators, land use planners, merchants and local indigenous and non-indigenous people). Because of limited resources and possibilities to reduce all types of risk, these different actors, or 'risk managers' have to choose and compete to prioritize which types of risks to address. This paper addresses a case study from San Cristobal Altaverapaz, Guatemala where a large landslide "Los Chorros", a catastrophic collapse of 6 millions cubic meters of rock, is affecting several communities and one of the country's main west-east access highways. In this case, the government established that the "primary" risk is the landslide, whereas other local stakeholders consider the primary risks to be economic This paper, situated at the cross section between political science, geography and disaster risk management, addresses the social conflict and competition for priorities and solutions for risk management, depending on the group of actors based on the on-going Los Chorros, Guatemala landslide mitigation process. This work is based on the analysis of practices, (Practical Science), policies and institutions in order to understand how the inclusion of multiple stakeholders in determining risk priorities can lead to more sustainable risk management in a given territory. The main objective of this investigation is first to identify and understand the juxtaposition of different readings of the risk equation, usually considered the interface between vulnerability, exposure and hazards. Secondly, it is to analyze the mechanisms of actions taken by various stakeholders, or risk managers. The analysis focuses on the various solutions proposed for reducing vulnerabilities (and consequentially their risks). To resolve a post-disaster situation, the actors prioritize one main type of vulnerability to address a set of vulnerabilities (in a multi-vulnerability context). With this choice, they define their own acceptable risk limits and the type of action that is most relevant. In doing so, they have to determine what elements can be changed and improved and which elements must be considered essential and preserved or the priority variables. These may include: equipment, production facilities, networks, services, modes of production and organizations, etc. or various economic and social capitals upon which individuals and groups rely for recovering from a post-disaster situation. Depending on the actor, certain factors will be will be emphasized over others and these may change over time. Linked with this political, institutional and geographical analysis of risk management, this work also questions who are the legitimate actors and the right criteria to prioritize risk reduction actions using public funds criteria and finally, which motivations are satisfied. In this sense, the challenge for managers of natural hazards is to move from risk management in the strict sense, which focuses mainly on hazards only, to a broader risks management, taking into consideration what is important for society and for the functioning of systems (what have not be vulnerable in a territorial system). In a context where risk and risk management is produced and managed by both formal and informal stakeholders, the main issue is how to engage the various stakeholders and evaluate different priorities of risk in order to determine which actions are best suited for a more balanced approach to risk management. This case study demonstrates that reducing landslide risk is subject to interpretation depending on the stakeholder and the result of priorities, providing on the role of each actor, their needs and range of action with a territory.

Prevalence, clinical features and management of pediatric magnetic foreign body ingestions.

PubMed

Tavarez, Melissa M; Saladino, Richard A; Gaines, Barbara A; Manole, Mioara D

2013-01-01

Foreign body (FB) ingestions are frequent in children. Whereas the majority of FBs pass spontaneously through the gastrointestinal tract, ingestion of magnetic FBs pose a particular risk for obstruction due to proximate attraction through the intestinal wall. We aimed to identify the prevalence, clinical presentation, and management of magnetic FB ingestions at our tertiary care institution. We performed a retrospective chart review of medical records of patients presenting to the pediatric Emergency Department (ED) or admitted to the hospital with FB ingestions from June 2003-July 2009. From those cases, patients with magnetic FB ingestions were identified. During the study period, 337,839 patients presented to the ED; 38 cases of magnetic FB ingestion were identified (prevalence 0.01%). Abdominal radiography was obtained in all cases. Ingestion of a single magnet occurred in 30 of 38 cases (79%). Of those, 4 patients underwent endoscopic removal due to signs of FB impaction in the esophagus or pylorus; no complications were noted. Ingestion of multiple magnets (range 2-6) occurred in 8 of 38 cases. Four of the 8 patients with multiple magnetic FBs (50%) presented with signs of peritonitis and required operative repair of multiple intestinal perforations. No deaths were identified. Although ingestion of a single magnetic FB may, in most cases, be managed as a simple FB ingestion, the ingestion of multiple magnetic FB is associated with a high risk of complication and requires aggressive management. We propose an algorithm for management of children with magnetic FB ingestions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

2013-12-01

Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation will not occur until a major hurricane hits the region, despite the cost effectiveness of preemptive interventions. It is assumed that after a hurricane the political risks will shift. New policies will be tried and new infrastructure will be built. Many municipalities and agencies are creating "shovel ready" plans in advance to take advantage of post-catastrophe funds. How do the design of these plans reflect perceptions of legal and political risk? Will they do a good job of reducing scientific risk by addressing long term physical threats? In this study we identify specific challenges to climate adaptation in Florida and explore how local and regional water management decision makers balance physical, legal, and political risks in their planning. A primary risk management tool is the strategic use of information. Through targeted interviews with stakeholders we identify key information gatekeepers and their strategies for reducing multiple types of risk.

Cardiovascular risk in rheumatoid arthritis: assessment, management and next steps

PubMed Central

Zegkos, Thomas; Kitas, George; Dimitroulas, Theodoros

2016-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality which cannot be fully explained by traditional CV risk factors; cumulative inflammatory burden and antirheumatic medication-related cardiotoxicity seem to be important contributors. Despite the acknowledgment and appreciation of CV disease burden in RA, optimal management of individuals with RA represents a challenging task which remains suboptimal. To address this need, the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) published recommendations suggesting the adaptation of traditional risk scores by using a multiplication factor of 1.5 if two of three specific criteria are fulfilled. Such guidance requires proper coordination of several medical specialties, including general practitioners, rheumatologists, cardiologists, exercise physiologists and psychologists to achieve a desirable result. Tight control of disease activity, management of traditional risk factors and lifestyle modification represent, amongst others, the most important steps in improving CV disease outcomes in RA patients. Rather than enumerating studies and guidelines, this review attempts to critically appraise current literature, highlighting future perspectives of CV risk management in RA. PMID:27247635

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

A method for mapping fire hazard and risk across multiple scales and its application in fire management

Treesearch

Robert E. Keane; Stacy A. Drury; Eva C. Karau; Paul F. Hessburg; Keith M. Reynolds

2010-01-01

This paper presents modeling methods for mapping fire hazard and fire risk using a research model called FIREHARM (FIRE Hazard and Risk Model) that computes common measures of fire behavior, fire danger, and fire effects to spatially portray fire hazard over space. FIREHARM can compute a measure of risk associated with the distribution of these measures over time using...

Developing objectives with multiple stakeholders: adaptive management of horseshoe crabs and Red Knots in the Delaware Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Lyons, James E.; Smith, David

2015-01-01

Structured decision making (SDM) is an increasingly utilized approach and set of tools for addressing complex decisions in environmental management. SDM is a value-focused thinking approach that places paramount importance on first establishing clear management objectives that reflect core values of stakeholders. To be useful for management, objectives must be transparently stated in unambiguous and measurable terms. We used these concepts to develop consensus objectives for the multiple stakeholders of horseshoe crab harvest in Delaware Bay. Participating stakeholders first agreed on a qualitative statement of fundamental objectives, and then worked to convert those objectives to specific and measurable quantities, so that management decisions could be assessed. We used a constraint-based approach where the conservation objectives for Red Knots, a species of migratory shorebird that relies on horseshoe crab eggs as a food resource during migration, constrained the utility of crab harvest. Developing utility functions to effectively reflect the management objectives allowed us to incorporate stakeholder risk aversion even though different stakeholder groups were averse to different or competing risks. While measurable objectives and quantitative utility functions seem scientific, developing these objectives was fundamentally driven by the values of the participating stakeholders.

Developing Objectives with Multiple Stakeholders: Adaptive Management of Horseshoe Crabs and Red Knots in the Delaware Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, Conor P.; Lyons, James E.; Smith, David R.

2015-04-01

Structured decision making (SDM) is an increasingly utilized approach and set of tools for addressing complex decisions in environmental management. SDM is a value-focused thinking approach that places paramount importance on first establishing clear management objectives that reflect core values of stakeholders. To be useful for management, objectives must be transparently stated in unambiguous and measurable terms. We used these concepts to develop consensus objectives for the multiple stakeholders of horseshoe crab harvest in Delaware Bay. Participating stakeholders first agreed on a qualitative statement of fundamental objectives, and then worked to convert those objectives to specific and measurable quantities, so that management decisions could be assessed. We used a constraint-based approach where the conservation objectives for Red Knots, a species of migratory shorebird that relies on horseshoe crab eggs as a food resource during migration, constrained the utility of crab harvest. Developing utility functions to effectively reflect the management objectives allowed us to incorporate stakeholder risk aversion even though different stakeholder groups were averse to different or competing risks. While measurable objectives and quantitative utility functions seem scientific, developing these objectives was fundamentally driven by the values of the participating stakeholders.

Ecological Production Functions Linking Multiple Stressors to Ecosystem Services – A Case Study

EPA Science Inventory

The ecosystem services concept is being used to frame environmental protection goals that guide management of the risks of chemicals. Ecosystem services link changes in ecological systems to the benefits received by people. The use of ecosystem services in risk assessments and th...

Gene panel testing for hereditary breast cancer.

PubMed

Winship, Ingrid; Southey, Melissa C

2016-03-21

Inherited predisposition to breast cancer is explained only in part by mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. Most families with an apparent familial clustering of breast cancer who are investigated through Australia's network of genetic services and familial cancer centres do not have mutations in either of these genes. More recently, additional breast cancer predisposition genes, such as PALB2, have been identified. New genetic technology allows a panel of multiple genes to be tested for mutations in a single test. This enables more women and their families to have risk assessment and risk management, in a preventive approach to predictable breast cancer. Predictive testing for a known family-specific mutation in a breast cancer predisposition gene provides personalised risk assessment and evidence-based risk management. Breast cancer predisposition gene panel tests have a greater diagnostic yield than conventional testing of only the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes. The clinical validity and utility of some of the putative breast cancer predisposition genes is not yet clear. Ethical issues warrant consideration, as multiple gene panel testing has the potential to identify secondary findings not originally sought by the test requested. Multiple gene panel tests may provide an affordable and effective way to investigate the heritability of breast cancer.

Multiplicity in public health supply systems: a learning agenda.

PubMed

Bornbusch, Alan; Bates, James

2013-08-01

Supply chain integration-merging products for health programs into a single supply chain-tends to be the dominant model in health sector reform. However, multiplicity in a supply system may be justified as a risk management strategy that can better ensure product availability, advance specific health program objectives, and increase efficiency.

Cytogenetics in the management of multiple myeloma: an update by the Groupe francophone de cytogénétique hématologique (GFCH).

PubMed

Daudignon, Agnès; Quilichini, Benoît; Ameye, Geneviève; Poirel, Hélène; Bastard, Christian; Terré, Christine

2016-10-01

Cytogenetics of multiple myeloma has evolved in recent years by the emergence of Interphasic fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) performed on sorted plasma cells detecting abnormalities independently of a proliferative and infiltrative index. Cytogenetic analysis plays a major part in the risk stratification of myeloma diagnosis due to prognostic impact of various cytogenetic abnormalities as well as to the association between emerging therapeutic approaches in MM. Thus, practice guidelines now recommend interphasic FISH or alternative molecular technics as the initial analysis for multiple myeloma. The Groupe francophone de cytogénétique hématologique (GFCH) proposes in this issue an update of managing multiple myeloma cytogenetics.

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape

PubMed Central

Eastburn, Danny J.; O’Geen, Anthony T.; Tate, Kenneth W.; Roche, Leslie M.

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services—specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health—across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments. PMID:28301475

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape.

PubMed

Eastburn, Danny J; O'Geen, Anthony T; Tate, Kenneth W; Roche, Leslie M

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services-specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health-across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments.

Critically evaluating best management practices for preventing freshwater turtle extinctions.

PubMed

Spencer, R-J; Van Dyke, J U; Thompson, Michael B

2017-12-01

Ex situ conservation tools, such as captive breeding for reintroduction, are considered a last resort to recover threatened or endangered species, but they may also help reduce anthropogenic threats where it is difficult or impossible to address them directly. Headstarting, or captive rearing of eggs or neonate animals for subsequent release into the wild, is controversial because it treats only a symptom of a larger conservation problem; however, it may provide a mechanism to address multiple threats, particularly near population centers. We conducted a population viability analysis of Australia's most widespread freshwater turtle, Chelodina longicollis, to determine the effect of adult roadkill (death by collision with motor vehicles), which is increasing, and reduced recruitment through nest predation from introduced European red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). We also modeled management scenarios to test the effectiveness of headstarting, fox management, and measures to reduce mortality on roads. Only scenarios with headstarting from source populations eliminated all risks of extinction and allowed population growth. Small increases in adult mortality (2%) had the greatest effect on population growth and extinction risk. Where threats simultaneously affected other life-history stages (e.g., recruitment), eliminating harvest pressures on adult females alone did not eliminate the risk of population extinction. In our models, one source population could supply enough hatchlings annually to supplement 25 other similar-sized populations such that extinction was avoided. Based on our results, we believe headstarting should be a primary tool for managing freshwater turtles for which threats affect multiple life-history stages. We advocate the creation of source populations for managing freshwater turtles that are greatly threatened at multiple life-history stages, such as depredation of eggs by invasive species and adult mortality via roadkill. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps.

PubMed

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-03-04

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Natural Hazard Management from a Coevolutionary Perspective: Exposure and Policy Response in the European Alps

PubMed Central

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-01-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to mountain hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to mountain hazards (river floods, torrential floods, and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the period from 1919 to 2012. The assessment is based on two different data sets: (1) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (2) information on building types combined from different national-level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social, and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that whereas some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies toward an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system. PMID:28267154

Flood hazard management from a coevolutionary perspective: exposure and policy response in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Röthlisberger, Veronika; Thaler, Thomas; Zischg, Andreas; Keiler, Margreth

2017-04-01

A coevolutionary perspective is adopted to understand the dynamics of exposure to hydrological hazards in the European Alps. A spatially explicit, object-based temporal assessment of elements at risk to flood hazards (river floods, torrential floods and debris flows) in Austria and Switzerland is presented for the 1919-2012 period. The assessment is based on two different datasets, (a) hazard information adhering to legally binding land use planning restrictions and (b) information on building types combined from different national level spatial data. We discuss these transdisciplinary dynamics and focus on economic, social and institutional interdependencies and interactions between human and physical systems. Exposure changes in the response to multiple drivers, including population growth and land use conflicts. The results show that while some regional assets are associated with a strong increase in exposure to hazards, others are characterized by a below-average level of exposure. The spatiotemporal results indicate relatively stable hot spots in the European Alps. These results coincide with the topography of the countries and with the respective range of economic activities and political settings. Furthermore, the differences between management approaches as a result of multiple institutional settings are discussed. A coevolutionary framework widens the explanatory power of multiple drivers to changes in exposure and risk, and supports a shift from structural, security-based policies towards an integrated, risk-based natural hazard management system.

Understanding the positive benefit:risk profile of alemtuzumab in relapsing multiple sclerosis: perspectives from the Alemtuzumab Clinical Development Program.

PubMed

Havrdova, Eva; Cohen, Jeffrey A; Horakova, Dana; Kovarova, Ivana; Meluzinova, Eva

2017-01-01

The introduction of high-efficacy therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis has driven re-evaluation of treatment goals and benefit:risk considerations in treatment choice. In the alemtuzumab Phase II and III clinical trials, patients treated with alemtuzumab 12 mg versus subcutaneous interferon beta-1a demonstrated significantly reduced annualized relapse rates and improved magnetic resonance imaging outcomes, and were significantly more likely to achieve no evidence of disease activity and reduction in brain volume loss. In two of the studies, alemtuzumab-treated patients had a significantly reduced risk of 6-month confirmed disease worsening, compared with subcutaneous interferon beta-1a. Benefits were maintained throughout 5 years, with a majority of patients receiving no alemtuzumab retreatment or other disease-modifying therapy. Trial results support alemtuzumab's manageable, consistent safety profile in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Infusion-associated reactions, the most frequent adverse events (AEs), can be minimized by corticosteroid pretreatment, monitoring, and symptomatic management. Other AEs include infections and autoimmune events. Oral anti-herpes prophylaxis should be initiated on the first day of each alemtuzumab treatment course and continued according to local guidelines. Overall cancer risk was lower in the alemtuzumab clinical trials than in a reference population; however, continuing surveillance will determine if alemtuzumab may be associated with certain malignancies such as thyroid papillary carcinoma and melanoma, which are currently identified as potential risks. The post-approval risk management strategy includes a safety monitoring program. Autoimmune AEs (thyroid events, immune thrombocytopenia, nephropathies) can be detected in a timely manner with the monitoring program, which includes physician and patient education about the signs and symptoms, monthly renal and hematologic monitoring, and quarterly thyroid function monitoring for 48 months after the last alemtuzumab course. Education, vigilance by physicians and patients, and monthly laboratory monitoring are recommended to maintain alemtuzumab's positive benefit:risk profile.

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

PubMed

Wyatt, Katherine H; Griffin, Robert; Guerry, Anne D; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones-with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies.

Habitat risk assessment for regional ocean planning in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic

PubMed Central

Guerry, Anne D.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Fogarty, Michael; Arkema, Katie K.

2017-01-01

Coastal habitats provide important benefits to people, including habitat for species targeted by fisheries and opportunities for tourism and recreation. Yet, such human activities also can imperil these habitats and undermine the ecosystem services they provide to people. Cumulative risk assessment provides an analytical framework for synthesizing the influence of multiple stressors across habitats and decision-support for balancing human uses and ecosystem health. To explore cumulative risk to habitats in the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Ocean Planning regions, we apply the open-source InVEST Habitat Risk Assessment model to 13 habitats and 31 stressors in an exposure-consequence framework. In doing so, we advance the science priorities of EBM and both regional planning bodies by synthesizing the wealth of available data to improve our understanding of human uses and how they affect marine resources. We find that risk to ecosystems is greatest first, along the coast, where a large number of stressors occur in close proximity and secondly, along the continental shelf, where fewer, higher consequence activities occur. Habitats at greatest risk include soft and hard-bottom nearshore areas, tidal flats, soft-bottom shelf habitat, and rocky intertidal zones—with the degree of risk varying spatially. Across all habitats, our results indicate that rising sea surface temperatures, commercial fishing, and shipping consistently and disproportionally contribute to risk. Further, our findings suggest that management in the nearshore will require simultaneously addressing the temporal and spatial overlap as well as intensity of multiple human activities and that management in the offshore requires more targeted efforts to reduce exposure from specific threats. We offer a transparent, generalizable approach to evaluating cumulative risk to multiple habitats and illustrate the spatially heterogeneous nature of impacts along the eastern Atlantic coast and the importance of spatial scale in estimating such impacts. These results offer a valuable decision-support tool by helping to constrain the decision space, focus attention on habitats and locations at the greatest risk, and highlight effect management strategies. PMID:29261672

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of multiple risks in delta areas.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2016-04-01

The assessment of climate change related risks is notoriously difficult due to the complex and uncertain combinations of hazardous events that might happen, the multiplicity of physical processes involved, the continuous changes and interactions of environmental and socio-economic systems. One important challenge lies in predicting and modelling cascades of natural and man -made hazard events which can be triggered by climate change, encompassing different spatial and temporal scales. Another regard the potentially difficult integration of environmental, social and economic disciplines in the multi-risk concept. Finally, the effective interaction between scientists and stakeholders is essential to ensure that multi-risk knowledge is translated into efficient adaptation and management strategies. The assessment is even more complex at the scale of deltaic systems which are particularly vulnerable to global environmental changes, due to the fragile equilibrium between the presence of valuable natural ecosystems and relevant economic activities. Improving our capacity to assess the combined effects of multiple hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surges, reduction in sediment load, local subsidence, saltwater intrusion) is therefore essential to identify timely opportunities for adaptation. A holistic multi-risk approach is here proposed to integrate terminology, metrics and methodologies from different research fields (i.e. environmental, social and economic sciences) thus creating shared knowledge areas to advance multi risk assessment and management in delta regions. A first testing of the approach, including the application of Bayesian network analysis for the assessment of impacts of climate change on key natural systems (e.g. wetlands, protected areas, beaches) and socio-economic activities (e.g. agriculture, tourism), is applied in the Po river delta in Northern Italy. The approach is based on a bottom-up process involving local stakeholders early in different stages of the multi-risk assessment process (i.e. identification of objectives, collection of data, definition of risk thresholds and indicators). The results of the assessment will allow the development of multi-risk scenarios enabling the evaluation and prioritization of risk management and adaptation options under changing climate conditions.

Fingolimod hydrochloride for the treatment of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Thomas, Katja; Proschmann, Undine; Ziemssen, Tjalf

2017-10-01

Fingolimod was the first oral and the first in class disease modifying treatment in multiple sclerosis that acts as sphingosine-1-phospathe receptor agonist. Since approval in 2010 there is a growing experience with fingolimod use in clinical practice, but also next-generation sphingosin-1-receptor agonists in ongoing clinical trials. Growing evidence demonstrates additional effects beyond impact on lymphocyte circulation, highlighting further promising targets in multiple sclerosis therapy. Areas covered: Here we present a systematic review using PubMed database searching and expert opinion on fingolimod use in clinical practice. Long-term data of initial clinical trials and post-marketing evaluations including long-term efficacy, safety, tolerability and management especially within growing disease modifying treatment options and pre-treatment constellation in multiple sclerosis patients are critically discussed. Furthermore novel findings in mechanism of actions and prospective on additional use in progressive forms in multiple sclerosis are presented. Expert opinion: There is an extensive long-term experience on fingolimod use in clinical practice demonstrating the favorable benefit-risk of this drug. Using a defined risk management approach experienced MS clinicians should apply fingolimod after critical choice of patients and review of clinical aspects. Further studies are essential to discuss additional benefit in progressive forms in multiple sclerosis.

Integrating Land Cover Modeling and Adaptive Management to Conserve Endangered Species and Reduce Catastrophic Fire Risk

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources and then decision makers can use this to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision making, where science allows us to learn to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuels monitoring with decision making focused on dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy, but habitat trajectories suggest tradeoffs. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state and by ideas about fire behavior. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility for and cover modeling programs intended to inform decision making.

Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

PubMed

Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

2017-09-05

Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

Assessment of BTEX-induced health risk under multiple uncertainties at a petroleum-contaminated site: An integrated fuzzy stochastic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xiaodong; Huang, Guo H.

2011-12-01

Groundwater pollution has gathered more and more attention in the past decades. Conducting an assessment of groundwater contamination risk is desired to provide sound bases for supporting risk-based management decisions. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach to evaluate risks of BTEX-contaminated groundwater under multiple uncertainties. It consists of an integrated interval fuzzy subsurface modeling system (IIFMS) and an integrated fuzzy second-order stochastic risk assessment (IFSOSRA) model. The IIFMS is developed based on factorial design, interval analysis, and fuzzy sets approach to predict contaminant concentrations under hybrid uncertainties. Two input parameters (longitudinal dispersivity and porosity) are considered to be uncertain with known fuzzy membership functions, and intrinsic permeability is considered to be an interval number with unknown distribution information. A factorial design is conducted to evaluate interactive effects of the three uncertain factors on the modeling outputs through the developed IIFMS. The IFSOSRA model can systematically quantify variability and uncertainty, as well as their hybrids, presented as fuzzy, stochastic and second-order stochastic parameters in health risk assessment. The developed approach haw been applied to the management of a real-world petroleum-contaminated site within a western Canada context. The results indicate that multiple uncertainties, under a combination of information with various data-quality levels, can be effectively addressed to provide supports in identifying proper remedial efforts. A unique contribution of this research is the development of an integrated fuzzy stochastic approach for handling various forms of uncertainties associated with simulation and risk assessment efforts.

The ins and outs of managing avoidance diets for food allergies.

PubMed

Shaker, Marcus; Venter, Carina

2016-08-01

Food allergic reactions have become more prevalent and management of food allergies requires dietary avoidance of triggers that may place children at nutritional risk. Immunoglobulin E and non-immunoglobulin E-mediated food allergies lead to dietary avoidance. Although some children outgrow food allergies or become tolerant to cooked/baked versions of the allergen, many do not. Multiple food avoidance increases the risk for inadequate nutrient intake, including protein, calcium, vitamin D, and others. Multidisciplinary management of patients requires careful attention to growth, particularly height, and nutrition. Although attention to accurate diagnosis of food allergy is key, understanding nutritional risks of children with food allergies can lead to opportunities to address potential deficiencies resulting from food allergen avoidance.

Update on risk stratification and treatment of newly diagnosed multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Kapoor, Prashant; Rajkumar, S Vincent

2011-10-01

Multiple myeloma is the second most common hematologic malignancy. Chromosomal aberrations are important prognostic determinants that influence the clinical decision-making in newly-diagnosed multiple myeloma (NDMM). Patients are considered high-risk if any of the following features are detected: hypodiploidy, deletion 13 by cytogenetics, t(4;14), t(14;16), t(14;20) and/or 17 p deletion. In the absence of these features patients are considered standard risk. Outside of trials, risk-adapted therapy in the transplant-eligible high-risk patients advocates use of bortezomib-based induction therapy followed by autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) and bortezomib-based maintenance therapy. High-risk, transplant-ineligible patients should also utilize bortezomib as initial therapy since it is known to overcome the poor prognosis associated with some high-risk features. The goal of therapy in high-risk patients is to attain and maintain a state of complete remission as much as possible. In contrast, the standard-risk, transplant-eligible patients may be treated with either lenalidomide-dexamethasone or bortezomib-based therapy followed by ASCT. In such patients, ASCT can also be deferred until first relapse if the patients are tolerating initial therapy well. Lenalidomide maintenance therapy in the post-transplant setting in standard-risk patients is controversial and not recommended routinely. For transplant-ineligible standard-risk patients, multiple options exist, although in the absence direct comparisons, we prefer lenalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone over melphalan-based combinations. This review outlines evidence-based management approaches in NDMM, with a focus on risk-adapted therapy.

Serum-free light-chain analysis in diagnosis and management of multiple myeloma and related conditions.

PubMed

Milani, Paolo; Palladini, Giovanni; Merlini, Giampaolo

2016-01-01

The introduction of the serum-free light-chain (S-FLC) assay has been a breakthrough in the diagnosis and management of plasma cell dyscrasias, particularly monoclonal light-chain diseases. The first method, proposed in 2001, quantifies serum-free light-chains using polyclonal antibodies. More recently, assays based on monoclonal antibodies have entered into clinical practice. S-FLC measurement plays a central role in the screening for multiple myeloma and related conditions, in association with electrophoretic techniques. Analysis of S-FLC is essential in assessing the risk of progression of precursor diseases to overt plasma cell dyscrasias. It is also useful for risk stratification in solitary plasmacytoma and AL amyloidosis. The S-FLC measurement is part of the new diagnostic criteria for multiple myeloma, and provides a marker to follow changes in clonal substructure over time. Finally, the evaluation of S-FLC is fundamental for assessing the response to treatment in monoclonal light chain diseases.

Principles and practices for the restoration of ponderosa pine and dry mixed-conifer forests of the Colorado Front Range

Treesearch

Robert N. Addington; Gregory H. Aplet; Mike A. Battaglia; Jennifer S. Briggs; Peter M. Brown; Antony S. Cheng; Yvette Dickinson; Jonas A. Feinstein; Kristen A. Pelz; Claudia M. Regan; Jim Thinnes; Rick Truex; Paula J. Fornwalt; Benjamin Gannon; Chad W. Julian; Jeffrey L. Underhill; Brett Wolk

2018-01-01

Wildfires have become larger and more severe over the past several decades on Colorado’s Front Range, catalyzing greater investments in forest management intended to mitigate wildfire risks. The complex ecological, social, and political context of the Front Range, however, makes forest management challenging, especially where multiple management goals including forest...

The Changing Landscape of Genetic Testing for Inherited Breast Cancer Predisposition.

PubMed

Afghahi, Anosheh; Kurian, Allison W

2017-05-01

The advent of multiple-gene germline panel testing has led to significant advances in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer risk assessment. These include guideline-specific cancer risk management recommendations for patients and their families, such as screening with breast magnetic resonance imaging and risk-reducing surgeries, which have the potential to reduce substantially the morbidity and mortality associated with a hereditary cancer predisposition. However, controversy remains about the clinical validity and actionability of genetic testing in a broader patient population. We discuss events leading to the wider availability of commercialized multiple-gene germline panel testing, the recent data that support using this powerful tool to improve cancer risk assessment and reduction strategies, and remaining challenges to clinical optimization of this new genetic technology.

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

PubMed

Lebret, Erik

2015-12-23

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms.

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment for Risk Governance Purposes; Across What Do We Integrate?

PubMed Central

Lebret, Erik

2015-01-01

Integrated Environmental Health Impact Assessment (IEHIA) can be considered as an element in the third phase of environmental risk management. Its focus is on providing inclusive descriptions of multiple impacts from multiple stressors in such a way that they can be evaluated against the potential societal benefits of the causes of the stressors. This paper emphasises some differences and difficulties in the integration across professional paradigms and scientific fields, across stakeholder perspectives and differences in impact indicators that emanate from these different fields and paradigms. PMID:26703709

Assessing wildfire risks at multiple spatial scales

Treesearch

Justin Fitch

2008-01-01

In continuation of the efforts to advance wildfire science and develop tools for wildland fire managers, a spatial wildfire risk assessment was carried out using Classification and Regression Tree analysis (CART) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The analysis was performed at two scales. The small-scale assessment covered the entire state of New Mexico, while...

Evaluation of Management Practices to Mitigate Pesticide Transport and Ecological Risk of Runoff from Agricultural and Turf Systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Highly managed biotic systems such as agricultural crops and golf courses often require multiple applications of pesticides that may be transported with runoff to surrounding surface waters. Pesticides have been detected in surface waters of rural and urban watersheds invoking concern of their sour...

Estimating the return-on-investment from changes in employee health risks on the Dow Chemical Company's health care costs.

PubMed

Goetzel, Ron Z; Ozminkowski, Ronald J; Baase, Catherine M; Billotti, Gary M

2005-08-01

We sought to estimate the impact of corporate health-management and risk-reduction programs for The Dow Chemical Company by using a prospective return-on-investment (ROI) model. The risk and expenditure estimates were derived from multiple regression analyses showing relationships between worker demographics, health risks, and medical expenditures. A "break-even" scenario would require Dow to reduce each of 10 population health risks by 0.17% points per year over the course of 10 years. More successful efforts at reducing health risks in the population would produce a more significant ROI for the company. Findings from this study were incorporated into other components of a business case for health and productivity management, and these supported continued investments in health improvement programs designed to achieve risk reduction and cost savings.

Identification of appropriate patients for cardiometabolic risk management.

PubMed

Peters, Anne L

2007-01-01

Patients at increased risk for cardiovascular disease have a wide array of clinical features that should alert practitioners to the need for risk reduction. Some, but not all, of these features relate to insulin resistance. Multiple approaches exist for diagnosing and defining this risk, including the traditional Framingham risk assessment, various definitions of the metabolic syndrome, and assessment of risk factors not commonly included in the standard criteria. This article reviews the many clinical findings that should alert healthcare providers to the need for aggressive cardiovascular risk reduction.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors.

PubMed

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-10-26

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic.

Why are there gaps in our management of those with high cardiovascular risk?

PubMed

Doolan-Noble, Fiona; Tracey, Jocelyn; Mann, Stewart

2012-03-01

Multiple New Zealand and other international studies have identified gaps in the management of those identified at high risk of a future cardiovascular (CV) event. This study sought to explore the views of health professionals about the barriers and facilitators present within the current primary health care system to the optimal management of those at high CV risk. This qualitative study utilised a focus group methodology to examine the barriers and facilitators within primary health care (PHC), and employed a general inductive approach to analyse the text data. The analysis of text data resulted in the emergence of interrelated themes, underpinned by subthemes. The patient, their circumstances and their characteristics and perceptions provided the first key theme and subthemes. The next key theme was primary health care providers, with subthemes of communication and values and beliefs. The general practice was the third theme and included multiple subthemes: implementation planning and pathway development, time and workload and roles and responsibilities. The final main theme was the health system with the subthemes linking to funding and leadership. This study determined the factors that act as barriers and facilitators to the effective management of those at high CV risk within the New Zealand PHC sector. General practice has a pivotal role in preventive health care, but to succeed there needs to be a refocusing of the PHC sector, requiring support from policy makers, District Health Boards and Primary Health Organisations, as well as those working in the sector.

Risk management for sulfur dioxide abatement under multiple uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, C.; Sun, W.; Tan, Q.; Liu, Y.; Lu, W. T.; Guo, H. C.

2016-03-01

In this study, interval-parameter programming, two-stage stochastic programming (TSP), and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) were incorporated into a general optimization framework, leading to an interval-parameter CVaR-based two-stage programming (ICTP) method. The ICTP method had several advantages: (i) its objective function simultaneously took expected cost and risk cost into consideration, and also used discrete random variables and discrete intervals to reflect uncertain properties; (ii) it quantitatively evaluated the right tail of distributions of random variables which could better calculate the risk of violated environmental standards; (iii) it was useful for helping decision makers to analyze the trade-offs between cost and risk; and (iv) it was effective to penalize the second-stage costs, as well as to capture the notion of risk in stochastic programming. The developed model was applied to sulfur dioxide abatement in an air quality management system. The results indicated that the ICTP method could be used for generating a series of air quality management schemes under different risk-aversion levels, for identifying desired air quality management strategies for decision makers, and for considering a proper balance between system economy and environmental quality.

An optimization-based approach for facility energy management with uncertainties, and, Power portfolio optimization in deregulated electricity markets with risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jun

Topic 1. An Optimization-Based Approach for Facility Energy Management with Uncertainties. Effective energy management for facilities is becoming increasingly important in view of the rising energy costs, the government mandate on the reduction of energy consumption, and the human comfort requirements. This part of dissertation presents a daily energy management formulation and the corresponding solution methodology for HVAC systems. The problem is to minimize the energy and demand costs through the control of HVAC units while satisfying human comfort, system dynamics, load limit constraints, and other requirements. The problem is difficult in view of the fact that the system is nonlinear, time-varying, building-dependent, and uncertain; and that the direct control of a large number of HVAC components is difficult. In this work, HVAC setpoints are the control variables developed on top of a Direct Digital Control (DDC) system. A method that combines Lagrangian relaxation, neural networks, stochastic dynamic programming, and heuristics is developed to predict the system dynamics and uncontrollable load, and to optimize the setpoints. Numerical testing and prototype implementation results show that our method can effectively reduce total costs, manage uncertainties, and shed the load, is computationally efficient. Furthermore, it is significantly better than existing methods. Topic 2. Power Portfolio Optimization in Deregulated Electricity Markets with Risk Management. In a deregulated electric power system, multiple markets of different time scales exist with various power supply instruments. A load serving entity (LSE) has multiple choices from these instruments to meet its load obligations. In view of the large amount of power involved, the complex market structure, risks in such volatile markets, stringent constraints to be satisfied, and the long time horizon, a power portfolio optimization problem is of critical importance but difficulty for an LSE to serve the load, maximize its profit, and manage risks. In this topic, a mid-term power portfolio optimization problem with risk management is presented. Key instruments are considered, risk terms based on semi-variances of spot market transactions are introduced, and penalties on load obligation violations are added to the objective function to improve algorithm convergence and constraint satisfaction. To overcome the inseparability of the resulting problem, a surrogate optimization framework is developed enabling a decomposition and coordination approach. Numerical testing results show that our method effectively provides decisions for various instruments to maximize profit, manage risks, and is computationally efficient.

Managing Annual Flood Risk and Reducing Socioeconomic Flood Impacts in Rural Arctic through Science-Community Collaborations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kontar, Y. Y.

2016-12-01

Multiple Arctic riverine communities face flood risk every spring. Within hours floodwater and ice debris destroy entire communities, displacing hundreds of people. In FY 2015-2016 an international project entitled Reducing Spring Flood Impacts for Wellbeing of Communities of the North was successfully conducted with the goal to identify best practices in managing the risk and reducing the socioeconomic impacts of floods associated with spring river ice breakup. In this presentation, we will elaborate on socioeconomic impacts of breakup floods, including long-term evacuation of population, loss of means of livelihoods, and ecosystem resource loss. We will also compare and contrast spring flood risk management and reduction strategies and their effectiveness in Alaska and Sakha Republic (Siberia), Russia. The findings are based on surveys completed by the representatives of adverse populations in two flood-prone communities in Alaska and Sakha Republic, as well as a series of roundtable discussions and interviews between social and geoscientists, emergency managers, and community leaders.

An analysis of the public perception of flood risk on the Belgian coast.

PubMed

Kellens, Wim; Zaalberg, Ruud; Neutens, Tijs; Vanneuville, Wouter; De Maeyer, Philippe

2011-07-01

In recent years, perception of flood risks has become an important topic to policy makers concerned with risk management and safety issues. Knowledge of the public risk perception is considered a crucial aspect in modern flood risk management as it steers the development of effective and efficient flood mitigation strategies. This study aimed at gaining insight into the perception of flood risks along the Belgian coast. Given the importance of the tourism industry on the Belgian coast, the survey considered both inhabitants and residential tourists. Based on actual expert's risk assessments, a high and a low risk area were selected for the study. Risk perception was assessed on the basis of scaled items regarding storm surges and coastal flood risks. In addition, various personal and residence characteristics were measured. Using multiple regression analysis, risk perception was found to be primarily influenced by actual flood risk estimates, age, gender, and experience with previous flood hazards. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Project management tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maluf, David A. (Inventor); Bell, David G. (Inventor); Gurram, Mohana M. (Inventor); Gawdiak, Yuri O. (Inventor)

2009-01-01

A system for managing a project that includes multiple tasks and a plurality of workers. Input information includes characterizations based upon a human model, a team model and a product model. Periodic reports, such as a monthly report, a task plan report, a budget report and a risk management report, are generated and made available for display or further analysis. An extensible database allows searching for information based upon context and upon content.

Complex interventions can increase osteoporosis investigations and treatment: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kastner, M; Perrier, L; Munce, S E P; Adhihetty, C C; Lau, A; Hamid, J; Treister, V; Chan, J; Lai, Y; Straus, S E

2018-01-01

Osteoporosis is affecting over 200 million people worldwide. Despite available guidelines, care for these patients remains sub-optimal. We developed an osteoporosis tool to address the multiple dimensions of chronic disease management. Findings from its evaluation showed a significant increase from baseline in osteoporosis investigations and treatment, so we are revising this tool to include multiple chronic conditions including an update of evidence about osteoporosis. Our objectives were to conduct a systematic review of osteoporosis interventions in adults at risk for osteoporosis. We searched bibliometric databases for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in any language evaluating osteoporosis disease management interventions in adults at risk for osteoporosis. Reviewer pairs independently screened citations and full-text articles, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Analysis included random effects meta-analysis. Primary outcomes were osteoporosis investigations and treatment, and fragility fractures. Fifty-five RCTs and one companion report were included in the analysis representing 165,703 patients. Our findings from 55 RCTs and 18 sub-group meta-analyses showed that complex implementation interventions with multiple components consisting of at least education + feedback + follow-up significantly increased the initiation of osteoporosis medications, and interventions with at least education + follow-up significantly increased the initiation of osteoporosis investigations. No significant impact was found for any type of intervention to reduce fracture. Complex interventions that include at least education + follow-up or feedback have the most potential for increasing osteoporosis investigations and treatment. Patient education appears to be an important component in osteoporosis disease management.

The importance of multiple performance criteria for understanding trust in risk managers.

PubMed

Johnson, Branden B; White, Mathew P

2010-07-01

Effective risk management requires balancing several, sometimes competing, goals, such as protecting public health and ensuring cost control. Research examining public trust of risk managers has largely focused on trust that is unspecified or for a single goal. Yet it can be reasonable to have a high level of trust in one aspect of a target's performance but not another. Two studies involving redevelopment of contaminated land (Study 1) and drinking water standards (Study 2) present preliminary evidence on the value of distinguishing between performance criteria for understanding of trust. Study 1 assessed perceptions of several trust targets (councilors, developers, scientists, residents) on their competence (capacity to achieve goals) and willingness to take action under uncertainty for four criteria. Study 2 assessed competence, willingness, and trust for five criteria regarding a single government agency. In both studies overall trust in each target was significantly better explained by considering perceptions of their performance on multiple criteria than on the single criterion of public health. In Study 1, the influence of criteria also varied plausibly across trust targets (e.g., willingness to act under uncertainty increased trust in developers on cost control and councilors on local economic improvement, but decreased it for both targets on environmental protection). Study 2 showed that explained variance in trust increased with both dimension- and trust-based measures of criteria. Further conceptual and methodological development of the notion of multiple trust criteria could benefit our understanding of stated trust judgments.

Assessing and managing stressors in a changing marine environment.

PubMed

Chapman, Peter M

2017-11-30

We are facing a dynamic future in the face of multiple stressors acting individually and in combination: climate change; habitat change/loss; overfishing; invasive species; harmful algal blooms/eutrophication; and, chemical contaminants. Historic assessment and management approaches will be inadequate for addressing risks from climate change and other stressors. Wicked problems (non-linear, complex, competing risks and benefits, not easily solvable), will become increasingly common. We are facing irreversible changes to our planetary living conditions. Agreed protection goals and considering both the negatives (risks) and the positives (benefits) of all any and all actions are required, as is judicious and appropriate use of the Precautionary Principle. Researchers and managers need to focus on: determining tipping points (alternative stable points); maintaining ecosystem services; and, managing competing ecosystem services. Marine (and other) scientists are urged to focus their research on wicked problems to allow for informed decision-making on a planetary basis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Robust Decision Making Approach to Managing Water Resource Risks (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lempert, R.

2010-12-01

The IPCC and US National Academies of Science have recommended iterative risk management as the best approach for water management and many other types of climate-related decisions. Such an approach does not rely on a single set of judgments at any one time but rather actively updates and refines strategies as new information emerges. In addition, the approach emphasizes that a portfolio of different types of responses, rather than any single action, often provides the best means to manage uncertainty. Implementing an iterative risk management approach can however prove difficult in actual decision support applications. This talk will suggest that robust decision making (RDM) provides a particularly useful set of quantitative methods for implementing iterative risk management. This RDM approach is currently being used in a wide variety of water management applications. RDM employs three key concepts that differentiate it from most types of probabilistic risk analysis: 1) characterizing uncertainty with multiple views of the future (which can include sets of probability distributions) rather than a single probabilistic best-estimate, 2) employing a robustness rather than an optimality criterion to assess alternative policies, and 3) organizing the analysis with a vulnerability and response option framework, rather than a predict-then-act framework. This talk will summarize the RDM approach, describe its use in several different types of water management applications, and compare the results to those obtained with other methods.

Cumulative Risk Assessment: An Overview of Methodological Approaches for Evaluating Combined Health Effects from Exposure to Multiple Environmental Stressors

PubMed Central

Sexton, Ken

2012-01-01

Systematic evaluation of cumulative health risks from the combined effects of multiple environmental stressors is becoming a vital component of risk-based decisions aimed at protecting human populations and communities. This article briefly examines the historical development of cumulative risk assessment as an analytical tool, and discusses current approaches for evaluating cumulative health effects from exposure to both chemical mixtures and combinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. A comparison of stressor-based and effects-based assessment methods is presented, and the potential value of focusing on viable risk management options to limit the scope of cumulative evaluations is discussed. The ultimate goal of cumulative risk assessment is to provide answers to decision-relevant questions based on organized scientific analysis; even if the answers, at least for the time being, are inexact and uncertain. PMID:22470298

Risk assessment in the upstream crude oil supply chain: Leveraging analytic hierarchy process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briggs, Charles Awoala

For an organization to be successful, an effective strategy is required, and if implemented appropriately the strategy will result in a sustainable competitive advantage. The importance of decision making in the oil industry is reflected in the magnitude and nature of the industry. Specific features of the oil industry supply chain, such as its longer chain, the complexity of its transportation system, its complex production and storage processes, etc., pose challenges to its effective management. Hence, understanding the risks, the risk sources, and their potential impacts on the oil industry's operations will be helpful in proposing a risk management model for the upstream oil supply chain. The risk-based model in this research uses a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, to underline the importance of risk analysis and risk management in the upstream crude oil supply chain. Level 1 represents the overall goal of risk management; Level 2 is comprised of the various risk factors; and Level 3 represents the alternative criteria of the decision maker as indicated on the hierarchical structure of the crude oil supply chain. Several risk management experts from different oil companies around the world were surveyed, and six major types of supply chain risks were identified: (1) exploration and production, (2) environmental and regulatory compliance, (3) transportation, (4) availability of oil, (5) geopolitical, and (6) reputational. Also identified are the preferred methods of managing risks which include; (1) accept and control the risks, (2) avoid the risk by stopping the activity, or (3) transfer or share the risks to other companies or insurers. The results from the survey indicate that the most important risk to manage is transportation risk with a priority of .263, followed by exploration/production with priority of .198, with an overall inconsistency of .03. With respect to major objectives the most preferred risk management policy option based on the result of the composite score is accept and control risk with a priority of .446, followed by transfer or share risk with a priority of .303. The least likely option is to terminate or forgo activity with a priority of .251.

Integrating land cover modeling and adaptive management to conserve endangered species and reduce catastrophic fire risk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breininger, David; Duncan, Brean; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Johnson, Fred; Nichols, James

2014-01-01

Land cover modeling is used to inform land management, but most often via a two-step process, where science informs how management alternatives can influence resources, and then, decision makers can use this information to make decisions. A more efficient process is to directly integrate science and decision-making, where science allows us to learn in order to better accomplish management objectives and is developed to address specific decisions. Co-development of management and science is especially productive when decisions are complicated by multiple objectives and impeded by uncertainty. Multiple objectives can be met by the specification of tradeoffs, and relevant uncertainty can be addressed through targeted science (i.e., models and monitoring). We describe how to integrate habitat and fuel monitoring with decision-making focused on the dual objectives of managing for endangered species and minimizing catastrophic fire risk. Under certain conditions, both objectives might be achieved by a similar management policy; other conditions require tradeoffs between objectives. Knowledge about system responses to actions can be informed by developing hypotheses based on ideas about fire behavior and then applying competing management actions to different land units in the same system state. Monitoring and management integration is important to optimize state-specific management decisions and to increase knowledge about system responses. We believe this approach has broad utility and identifies a clear role for land cover modeling programs intended to inform decision-making.

Underestimating risks to the northern spotted owl in fire-prone forests: response to Hanson et al

Treesearch

Thomas A. Spies; Jay D. Miller; Joseph B. Buchanan; John F. Lehmkuhl; Jerry F. Franklin; Sean P. Healey; Paul F. Hessburg; Hugh D. Safford; Warren B. Cohen; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy; Eric E. Knapp; James K. Agee; Melinda Moeur

2010-01-01

The development of conservation plans for Northern Spotted Owls (NSO) (Strix occidentalis caurina) in disturbance-prone landscapes requires evaluation of multiple threats and careful consideration of the consequences of management actions intended to reduce risk. Hanson et al. (2009) used downwardly revised estimates of recent old-forest losses to...

A Framework for the Next Generation of Risk Science

PubMed Central

Krewski, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin E.; Paoli, Gregory M.; Chiu, Weihsueh A.; Al-Zoughool, Mustafa; Croteau, Maxine C.; Burgoon, Lyle D.; Cote, Ila

2014-01-01

Objectives: In 2011, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency initiated the NexGen project to develop a new paradigm for the next generation of risk science. Methods: The NexGen framework was built on three cornerstones: the availability of new data on toxicity pathways made possible by fundamental advances in basic biology and toxicological science, the incorporation of a population health perspective that recognizes that most adverse health outcomes involve multiple determinants, and a renewed focus on new risk assessment methodologies designed to better inform risk management decision making. Results: The NexGen framework has three phases. Phase I (objectives) focuses on problem formulation and scoping, taking into account the risk context and the range of available risk management decision-making options. Phase II (risk assessment) seeks to identify critical toxicity pathway perturbations using new toxicity testing tools and technologies, and to better characterize risks and uncertainties using advanced risk assessment methodologies. Phase III (risk management) involves the development of evidence-based population health risk management strategies of a regulatory, economic, advisory, community-based, or technological nature, using sound principles of risk management decision making. Conclusions: Analysis of a series of case study prototypes indicated that many aspects of the NexGen framework are already beginning to be adopted in practice. Citation: Krewski D, Westphal M, Andersen ME, Paoli GM, Chiu WA, Al-Zoughool M, Croteau MC, Burgoon LD, Cote I. 2014. A framework for the next generation of risk science. Environ Health Perspect 122:796–805; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307260 PMID:24727499

Priority setting for invasive species management: risk assessment of Ponto-Caspian invasive species into Great Britain.

PubMed

Gallardo, Belinda; Aldridge, David C

2013-03-01

Invasive species drive important ecological and economic losses across wide geographies, with some regions supporting especially large numbers of nonnative species and consequently suffering relatively high impacts. For this reason, integrated risk assessments able to screen a suite of multiple invaders over large geographic areas are needed for prioritizing the allocation of limited resources. A total of 16 Ponto-Caspian aquatic species (10 gammarids, one isopod, two mysids, and three fishes) have been short-listed as recent or potential future invaders of British waters, whose introduction and spread is of high concern. In this study, we use multiple modeling techniques to assess their risk of establishment and spread into Great Britain. Climate suitability maps for these 16 species differed depending on the eastern and western distribution of species in continental Europe, which was related to their respective migration corridor: southern (Danube-Rhine rivers), and northern (Don and Volga rivers and Baltic lakes). Species whose suitability was high across large parts of Great Britain included four gammarids (Cheliorophium robustum, Dikerogammarus bispinosus, D. villosus, and Echinogammarus trichiatus) and a mysid (Hemimysis anomala). A climatic "heat map" combining the results of all 16 species together pointed to the southeast of England as the area most vulnerable to multiple invasions, particularly the Thames, Anglian, Severn, and Humber river basin districts. Regression models further suggested that alkalinity concentration > 120 mg/L in southeast England may favor the establishment of Ponto-Caspian invaders. The production of integrated risk maps for future invaders provides a means for the scientifically informed prioritization of resources toward particular species and geographic regions. Such tools have great utility in helping environmental managers focus efforts on the most effective prevention, management, and monitoring programs.

Determinants of sick-leave duration: a tool for managers?

PubMed

Flach, Peter A; Krol, Boudien; Groothoff, Johan W

2008-09-01

To provide managers with tools to manage episodes of sick-leave of their employees, the influence of factors such as age, gender, duration of tenure, working full-time or part-time, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and education on sick-leave duration was studied. In a cross-sectional study, data derived from the 2005 sick-leave files of a Dutch university were examined. Odds ratios of the single risk factors were calculated for short spells (or=91 days) of sick-leave. Next, these factors were studied in multiple regression models. Age, gender, duration of employment, cause and history of sick-leave, salary and membership of scientific staff, studied as single factors, have a significant influence on sick-leave duration. In multiple models, this influence remains for gender, salary, age, and history and cause of sick-leave. Only in medium or long spells and regarding the risk for a long or an extended spell do the predictive values of models consisting of psychological factors, work-related factors, salary and gender become reasonable. The predictive value of the risk factors used in this study is limited, and varies with the duration of the sick-leave spell. Only the risk for an extended spell of sick-leave as compared to a medium or long spell is reasonably predicted. Factors contributing to this risk may be used as tools in decision-making.

Renal complications in multiple myeloma and related disorders: survivorship care plan of the International Myeloma Foundation Nurse Leadership Board.

PubMed

Faiman, Beth M; Mangan, Patricia; Spong, Jacy; Tariman, Joseph D

2011-08-01

Kidney dysfunction is a common clinical feature of symptomatic multiple myeloma. Some degree of renal insufficiency or renal failure is present at diagnosis or will occur during the course of the disease and, if not reversed, will adversely affect overall survival and quality of life. Chronic insults to the kidneys from other illnesses, treatment, or multiple myeloma itself can further damage renal function and increase the risk for additional complications, such as anemia. Patients with multiple myeloma who have light chain (Bence Jones protein) proteinuria may experience renal failure or progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and require dialysis because of light chain cast nephropathy. Kidney failure in patients with presumed multiple myeloma also may result from amyloidosis, light chain deposition disease, or acute tubular necrosis caused by nephrotoxic agents; therefore, identification of patients at risk for kidney damage is essential. The International Myeloma Foundation's Nurse Leadership Board has developed practice recommendations for screening renal function, identifying positive and negative contributing risk and environmental factors, selecting appropriate therapies and supportive care measures to decrease progression to ESRD, and enacting dialysis to reduce and manage renal complications in patients with multiple myeloma.

Multiple Interacting Risk Factors: On Methods for Allocating Risk Factor Interactions.

PubMed

Price, Bertram; MacNicoll, Michael

2015-05-01

A persistent problem in health risk analysis where it is known that a disease may occur as a consequence of multiple risk factors with interactions is allocating the total risk of the disease among the individual risk factors. This problem, referred to here as risk apportionment, arises in various venues, including: (i) public health management, (ii) government programs for compensating injured individuals, and (iii) litigation. Two methods have been described in the risk analysis and epidemiology literature for allocating total risk among individual risk factors. One method uses weights to allocate interactions among the individual risk factors. The other method is based on risk accounting axioms and finding an optimal and unique allocation that satisfies the axioms using a procedure borrowed from game theory. Where relative risk or attributable risk is the risk measure, we find that the game-theory-determined allocation is the same as the allocation where risk factor interactions are apportioned to individual risk factors using equal weights. Therefore, the apportionment problem becomes one of selecting a meaningful set of weights for allocating interactions among the individual risk factors. Equal weights and weights proportional to the risks of the individual risk factors are discussed. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

An evaluation of the Well at Dell health management program: health risk change and financial return on investment.

PubMed

Musich, Shirley; McCalister, Tre'; Wang, Sara; Hawkins, Kevin

2015-01-01

To investigate the effectiveness of the Well at Dell comprehensive health management program in delivering health care and productivity cost savings relative to program investment (i.e., return on investment). A quasi-experimental design was used to quantify the financial impact of the program and nonexperimental pre-post design to evaluate change in health risks. Ongoing worksite health management program implemented across multiple U.S. locations. Subjects were 24,651 employees with continuous medical enrollment in 2010-2011 who were eligible for 2011 health management programming. Incentive-driven, outcomes-based multicomponent corporate health management program including health risk appraisal (HRA)/wellness, lifestyle management, and disease management coaching programs. Medical, pharmacy, and short-term disability pre/post expenditure trends adjusted for demographics, health status, and baseline costs. Self-reported health risks from repeat HRA completers. Analysis: Propensity score-weighted and multivariate regression-adjusted comparison of baseline to post trends in health care expenditures and productivity costs for program participants and nonparticipants (i.e., difference in difference) relative to programmatic investment. The Well at Dell program achieved an overall return on investment of 2.48 in 2011. Most of the savings were realized from the HRA/wellness component of the program. Cost savings were supported with high participation and significant health risk improvement. An incentive-driven, well-managed comprehensive corporate health management program can continue to achieve significant health improvement while promoting health care and productivity cost savings in an employee population.

Conscious worst case definition for risk assessment, part I: a knowledge mapping approach for defining most critical risk factors in integrative risk management of chemicals and nanomaterials.

PubMed

Sørensen, Peter B; Thomsen, Marianne; Assmuth, Timo; Grieger, Khara D; Baun, Anders

2010-08-15

This paper helps bridge the gap between scientists and other stakeholders in the areas of human and environmental risk management of chemicals and engineered nanomaterials. This connection is needed due to the evolution of stakeholder awareness and scientific progress related to human and environmental health which involves complex methodological demands on risk management. At the same time, the available scientific knowledge is also becoming more scattered across multiple scientific disciplines. Hence, the understanding of potentially risky situations is increasingly multifaceted, which again challenges risk assessors in terms of giving the 'right' relative priority to the multitude of contributing risk factors. A critical issue is therefore to develop procedures that can identify and evaluate worst case risk conditions which may be input to risk level predictions. Therefore, this paper suggests a conceptual modelling procedure that is able to define appropriate worst case conditions in complex risk management. The result of the analysis is an assembly of system models, denoted the Worst Case Definition (WCD) model, to set up and evaluate the conditions of multi-dimensional risk identification and risk quantification. The model can help optimize risk assessment planning by initial screening level analyses and guiding quantitative assessment in relation to knowledge needs for better decision support concerning environmental and human health protection or risk reduction. The WCD model facilitates the evaluation of fundamental uncertainty using knowledge mapping principles and techniques in a way that can improve a complete uncertainty analysis. Ultimately, the WCD is applicable for describing risk contributing factors in relation to many different types of risk management problems since it transparently and effectively handles assumptions and definitions and allows the integration of different forms of knowledge, thereby supporting the inclusion of multifaceted risk components in cumulative risk management. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impacts induced by global climate change through a multi-risk approach: lessons learned from the North Adriatic coast (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallina, Valentina; Torressan, Silvia; Zabeo, Alex; Critto, Andrea; Glade, Thomas; Marcomini, Antonio

2015-04-01

Climate change is expected to pose a wide range of impacts on natural and human systems worldwide, increasing risks from long-term climate trends and disasters triggered by weather extremes. Accordingly, in the future, one region could be potentially affected by interactions, synergies and trade-offs of multiple hazards and impacts. A multi-risk risk approach is needed to effectively address multiple threats posed by climate change across regions and targets supporting decision-makers toward a new paradigm of multi-hazard and risk management. Relevant initiatives have been already developed for the assessment of multiple hazards and risks affecting the same area in a defined timeframe by means of quantitative and semi-quantitative approaches. Most of them are addressing the relations of different natural hazards, however, the effect of future climate change is usually not considered. In order to fill this gap, an advanced multi-risk methodology was developed at the Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC) for estimating cumulative impacts related to climate change at the regional (i.e. sub-national) scale. This methodology was implemented into an assessment tool which allows to scan and classify quickly natural systems and human assets at risk resulting from different interacting hazards. A multi-hazard index is proposed to evaluate the relationships of different climate-related hazards (e.g. sea-level rise, coastal erosion, storm surge) occurring in the same spatial and temporal area, by means of an influence matrix and the disjoint probability function. Future hazard scenarios provided by regional climate models are used as input for this step in order to consider possible effects of future climate change scenarios. Then, the multi-vulnerability of different exposed receptors (e.g. natural systems, beaches, agricultural and urban areas) is estimated through a variety of vulnerability indicators (e.g. vegetation cover, sediment budget, % of urbanization), tailored case by case to different sets of natural hazards and elements at risk. Finally, the multi-risk assessment integrates the multi-hazard with the multi-vulnerability index of exposed receptors, providing a relative ranking of areas and targets potentially affected by multiple risks in the considered region. The methodology was applied to the North Adriatic coast (Italy) producing a range of GIS-based multi-hazard, exposure, multi-vulnerability and multi-risk maps that can be used by policy-makers to define risk management and adaptation strategies. Results show that areas affected by higher multi-hazard scores are located close to the coastline where all the investigated hazards are present. Multi-vulnerability assumes relatively high scores in the whole case study, showing that beaches, wetlands, protected areas and river mouths are the more sensible targets. The final estimate of multi-risk for coastal municipalities provides useful information for local public authorities to set future priorities for adaptation and define future plans for shoreline and coastal management in view of climate change.

The contribution of changes in diet, exercise, and stress management to changes in coronary risk in women and men in the multisite cardiac lifestyle intervention program.

PubMed

Daubenmier, Jennifer J; Weidner, Gerdi; Sumner, Michael D; Mendell, Nancy; Merritt-Worden, Terri; Studley, Joli; Ornish, Dean

2007-02-01

The relative contribution of health behaviors to coronary risk factors in multicomponent secondary coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention programs is largely unknown. Our purpose is to evaluate the additive and interactive effects of 3-month changes in health behaviors (dietary fat intake, exercise, and stress management) on 3-month changes in coronary risk and psychosocial factors among 869 nonsmoking CHD patients (34% female) enrolled in the health insurance-based Multisite Cardiac Lifestyle Intervention Program. Analyses of variance for repeated measures were used to analyze health behaviors, coronary risk factors, and psychosocial factors at baseline and 3 months. Multiple regression analyses evaluated changes in dietary fat intake and hours per week of exercise and stress management as predictors of changes in coronary risk and psychosocial factors. Significant overall improvement in coronary risk was observed. Reductions in dietary fat intake predicted reductions in weight, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and interacted with increased exercise to predict reductions in perceived stress. Increases in exercise predicted improvements in total cholesterol and exercise capacity (for women). Increased stress management was related to reductions in weight, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (for men), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c (in patients with diabetes), and hostility. Improvements in dietary fat intake, exercise, and stress management were individually, additively and interactively related to coronary risk and psychosocial factors, suggesting that multicomponent programs focusing on diet, exercise, and stress management may benefit patients with CHD.

Decision making under uncertainty, therapeutic inertia, and physicians' risk preferences in the management of multiple sclerosis (DIScUTIR MS).

PubMed

Saposnik, Gustavo; Sempere, Angel Perez; Raptis, Roula; Prefasi, Daniel; Selchen, Daniel; Maurino, Jorge

2016-05-04

The management of multiple sclerosis (MS) is rapidly changing by the introduction of new and more effective disease-modifying agents. The importance of risk stratification was confirmed by results on disease progression predicted by different risk score systems. Despite these advances, we know very little about medical decisions under uncertainty in the management of MS. The goal of this study is to i) identify whether overconfidence, tolerance to risk/uncertainty, herding influence medical decisions, and ii) to evaluate the frequency of therapeutic inertia (defined as lack of treatment initiation or intensification in patients not at goals of care) and its predisposing factors in the management of MS. This is a prospective study comprising a combination of case-vignettes and surveys and experiments from Neuroeconomics/behavioral economics to identify cognitive distortions associated with medical decisions and therapeutic inertia. Participants include MS fellows and MS experts from across Spain. Each participant will receive an individual link using Qualtrics platform(©) that includes 20 case-vignettes, 3 surveys, and 4 behavioral experiments. The total time for completing the study is approximately 30-35 min. Case vignettes were selected to be representative of common clinical encounters in MS practice. Surveys and experiments include standardized test to measure overconfidence, aversion to risk and ambiguity, herding (following colleague's suggestions even when not supported by the evidence), physicians' reactions to uncertainty, and questions from the Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) related to risk preferences in different domains. By applying three different MS score criteria (modified Rio, EMA, Prosperini's scheme) we take into account physicians' differences in escalating therapy when evaluating medical decisions across case-vignettes. The present study applies an innovative approach by combining tools to assess medical decisions with experiments from Neuroeconomics that applies to common scenarios in MS care. Our results will help advance the field by providing a better understanding on the influence of cognitive factors (e.g., overconfidence, aversion to risk and uncertainty, herding) on medical decisions and therapeutic inertia in the management of MS which could lead to better outcomes.

Proactive Parent Engagement in Public Schools: Using a Brief Strengths and Needs Assessment in a Multiple-Gating Risk Management Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Kevin J.; Garbacz, S. Andrew; Gau, Jeff M.; Dishion, Thomas J.; Brown, Kimbree L.; Stormshak, Elizabeth A.; Seeley, John R.

2016-01-01

This study examined the viability of a brief, parent-reported strengths and needs assessment as the first step in a multiple-gating approach to proactive positive behavior support for families. The "Positive Family Support--Strengths and Needs Assessment" (PFS-SaNA) was designed to collaboratively engage parents early in the school year…

Multiple risk-behavior profiles of smokers with serious mental illness and motivation for change.

PubMed

Prochaska, Judith J; Fromont, Sebastien C; Delucchi, Kevin; Young-Wolff, Kelly C; Benowitz, Neal L; Hall, Stephen; Bonas, Thomas; Hall, Sharon M

2014-12-01

Individuals with serious mental illness (SMI) are dying on average 25 years prematurely. The leading causes are chronic preventable diseases. In the context of a tobacco-treatment trial, this exploratory study examined the behavioral risk profiles of adults with SMI to identify broader interventional needs. Recruited from five acute inpatient psychiatry units, participants were 693 adult smokers (recruitment rate = 76%, 50% male, 45% Caucasian, age M = 39, 49% had income < $10,000) diagnosed with mood disorders (71%), substance-use disorders (63%), posttraumatic stress disorder (39%), psychotic disorders (25%), and attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (25%). The Staging Health Risk Assessment, the primary measure used in this study, screened for risk status and readiness to change 11 health behaviors, referencing the period prior to acute hospitalization. Participants averaged 5.2 (SD = 2.1) risk behaviors, including smoking (100%), high-fat diet (68%), inadequate fruits/vegetables (67%), poor sleep (53%), physical inactivity (52%), and marijuana use (46%). The percent prepared to change ranged from 23% for tobacco and marijuana to 76% for depression management. Latent class analysis differentiated three risk groups: the global higher risk group included patients elevated on all risk behaviors; the global lower risk group was low on all risks; and a mood and metabolic risk group, characterized by inactivity, unhealthy diet, sleep problems, and poor stress and depression management. The global higher risk group (11% of sample) was younger, largely male, and had the greatest number of risk behaviors and mental health diagnoses; had the most severe psychopathologies, addiction-treatment histories, and nicotine dependence; and the lowest confidence for quitting smoking and commitment to abstinence. Most smokers with SMI engaged in multiple risks. Expanding targets to treat co-occurring risks and personalizing treatment to individuals' multibehavioral profiles may increase intervention relevance, interest, and impact on health.

Genetic Testing as a Tool to Identify Horses with or at Risk for Ocular Disorders.

PubMed

Bellone, Rebecca R

2017-12-01

Advances in equine genetics and genomics resources have enabled the understanding of some inherited ocular disorders and ocular manifestations. These ocular disorders include congenital stationary night blindness, equine recurrent uveitis, multiple congenital ocular anomalies, and squamous cell carcinoma. Genetic testing can identify horses with or at risk for disease and thus can assist in clinical management. In addition, genetic testing can identify horses that are carriers and thus can inform breeding decisions. Use of genetic tests in management and breeding decisions should aid in reducing the incidence of these disorders and improving the outcomes for horses at highest risk. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Successful management of grade III coronary perforation after percutaneous angioplasty in a high-risk patient: a case report.

PubMed

Coloma Araniya, Ricardo; Beas, Renato; Maticorena-Quevedo, Jesús; Anduaga-Beramendi, Alexander; Pastrana Castillo, Marco Antonio

2016-03-03

Coronary perforation is a rare complication in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary angioplasty. The mortality of this complication varies depending on factors related to the patient and the procedure performed, reaching 44% in patients with Ellis type III perforation. We report the case of an 81 year old male with multiple cardiovascular risk factors, who underwent percutaneous angioplasty for unstable angina management. The patient developed grade III coronary perforation in the anterior descending artery, which was successfully managed with balloon inflation to 6 atmospheres for 10 minutes twice in the affected area, with an interval of 5 minutes between each dilatation. The patient improved and was discharged.

Allergen source materials: state-of-the-art.

PubMed

Esch, Robert E

2009-01-01

A variety of positive outcomes can be realized from validation and risk management activities (see Table 4). They are dependent on the participation of multiple functional groups including the quality unit, regulatory and legal affairs, engineering and production operations, research and development, and sales and marketing. Quality risk management is receiving increased attention in the area of public health, pharmacovigilance, and pharmaceutical manufacturing. Recent examples of its regulatory use in our industry include the assessment of the potential risks of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) agents through contaminated products], the risks of precipitates in allergenic extracts, and the revision of the potency limits for standardized dust mite and grass allergen vaccines. Its application to allergen source material process validation activities allowed for a practical strategy, especially in a complex manufacturing environment involving hundreds of products with multiple intended uses. In addition, the use of tools such as FMEA was useful in evaluating proposed changes made to manufacturing procedures and product specifications, new regulatory actions, and customer feedback or complaints. The success of such a quality assurance programs will ultimately be reflected in the elimination or reduction of product failures, improvement in the detection and prediction of potential product failures, and increased confidence in product quality.

Approach to evaluation and management of a patient with multiple food allergies.

PubMed

Bird, J Andrew

2016-01-01

Diagnosing food allergy is often challenging, and validated testing modalities are mostly limited to immunoglobulin E (IgE)-mediated reactions to foods. Use of food-specific IgE tests and skin prick tests in individuals without a history that supports an IgE-mediated reaction to the specific food being tested diminishes the predictive capabilities of the test. To review the literature regarding evaluation of patients with a concern for multiple food allergies and to demonstrate an evidence-based approach to diagnosis and management. A literature search was performed and articles identified as relevant based on the search terms "food allergy," "food allergy diagnosis," "skin prick test," "serum IgE test," "oral food challenge", and "food allergy management." Patients at risk of food allergy are often misdiagnosed and appropriate evaluation of patients with concern for food allergy includes taking a thorough diet history and reaction history, performing specific tests intentionally and when indicated, and conducting an oral food challenge in a safe environment by an experienced provider when test results are inconclusive. An evidence-based approach to diagnosing and managing a patient at risk of having a life-threatening food allergy is reviewed.

Epigenetics and cardiovascular disease

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite advances in the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD), this group of multifactorial disorders remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide. CVD is associated with multiple genetic and modifiable risk factors; however, known environmental and genetic influences can only...

The Singapore Myeloma Study Group Consensus Guidelines for the management of patients with multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

de Mel, Sanjay; Chen, Yunxin; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish Kumar; Ooi, Melissa; Teo, Constance; Tan, Daryl; Teo, Min Li Claire; Tso, Allison CY; Lee, Lian King; Nagarajan, Chandramouli; Goh, Yeow Tee; Chng, Wee Joo

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma cell neoplasm with an incidence of 100 patients per year in Singapore. Major advances have been made in the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of MM in the recent past. The reclassification of a subset of patients with smouldering MM, based on high-risk biomarkers, and the development of the revised international staging system are among the key new developments in diagnosis and staging. The use of novel agent-based treatment has resulted in significant improvements in the survival and quality of life of many patients with MM. Determining the optimal use of proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and, more recently, monoclonal antibodies is an area of ongoing investigation. In this guideline, we aim to provide an overview of the management of MM, incorporating the latest developments in diagnosis and treatment. PMID:27609508

The Singapore Myeloma Study Group Consensus Guidelines for the management of patients with multiple myeloma.

PubMed

de Mel, Sanjay; Chen, Yunxin; Gopalakrishnan, Sathish Kumar; Ooi, Melissa; Teo, Constance; Tan, Daryl; Teo, Min Li Claire; Tso, Allison Cy; Lee, Lian King; Nagarajan, Chandramouli; Goh, Yeow Tee; Chng, Wee Joo

2017-02-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is an incurable plasma cell neoplasm with an incidence of 100 patients per year in Singapore. Major advances have been made in the diagnosis, risk stratification and treatment of MM in the recent past. The reclassification of a subset of patients with smouldering MM, based on high-risk biomarkers, and the development of the revised international staging system are among the key new developments in diagnosis and staging. The use of novel agent-based treatment has resulted in significant improvements in the survival and quality of life of many patients with MM. Determining the optimal use of proteasome inhibitors, immunomodulators and, more recently, monoclonal antibodies is an area of ongoing investigation. In this guideline, we aim to provide an overview of the management of MM, incorporating the latest developments in diagnosis and treatment. Copyright: © Singapore Medical Association.

Managing the unmanageable: the nature and impact of drug risk in physician groups.

PubMed

Lipton, Helene Levens; Agnew, Jonathan D; Stebbins, Marilyn R; Kuo, Angela; Dudley, R Adams

2005-08-01

As drug costs rose in the 1990s, health maintenance organizations (HMOs) began transferring risk for prescription drug expenditures to physician groups. With principal-agent theory as a framework for understanding drug-risk transfer, we used a multiple case-study design to examine the relationship between the level of drug risk that a physician group accepts and the physician group's adoption of drug-use management strategies. The data demonstrated that adoption of drug-use management innovations was not related to level of risk for pharmacy costs and that factors other than drug-risk level (e.g., contracting and data issues, financial and market factors, and physician group assessments of the fairness and incentives of risk contracts) can influence the principal-agent relationship. The data also revealed a novel form of information asymmetry between physicians and HMOs and unexpected failures of HMOs to fully enable their physician-agents. We believe these observations reflect the complexity of relationships in the health care system and have implications for the use of incentives. Based on principal-agent theory and our findings, we offer an alternative approach to drug-risk contracting that reduces physicians responsibility for aspects of drug use that are beyond their control while maintaining the incentives to manage drug costs and use that were the original intent of drug-risk contracting.

Integrated presentation of ecological risk from multiple stressors

PubMed Central

Goussen, Benoit; Price, Oliver R.; Rendal, Cecilie; Ashauer, Roman

2016-01-01

Current environmental risk assessments (ERA) do not account explicitly for ecological factors (e.g. species composition, temperature or food availability) and multiple stressors. Assessing mixtures of chemical and ecological stressors is needed as well as accounting for variability in environmental conditions and uncertainty of data and models. Here we propose a novel probabilistic ERA framework to overcome these limitations, which focusses on visualising assessment outcomes by construct-ing and interpreting prevalence plots as a quantitative prediction of risk. Key components include environmental scenarios that integrate exposure and ecology, and ecological modelling of relevant endpoints to assess the effect of a combination of stressors. Our illustrative results demonstrate the importance of regional differences in environmental conditions and the confounding interactions of stressors. Using this framework and prevalence plots provides a risk-based approach that combines risk assessment and risk management in a meaningful way and presents a truly mechanistic alternative to the threshold approach. Even whilst research continues to improve the underlying models and data, regulators and decision makers can already use the framework and prevalence plots. The integration of multiple stressors, environmental conditions and variability makes ERA more relevant and realistic. PMID:27782171

Review: The size of the risk: Histories of multiple use in the Great Basin by Leisl Carr Childers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Craig A.

2017-01-01

In The Size of the Risk, Leisl Carr Childers chronicles the changing ways in which public lands of the Great Basin have been managed from the latter half of the nineteenth century through the late 1970s. The main focus is the State of Nevada, which constitutes the core of the Great Basin. Rather than proceeding chronologically, the book is organized by the uses to which lands were put, including grazing of cattle and sheep, weapons testing by the military, parks and recreation, and grazing of wild mustangs.Review info: The size of the risk: Histories of multiple use in the Great Basin. By Leisl Carr Childers, 2015. ISBN: 9780806152530, 320pp.

Human health risk constrained naphthalene-contaminated groundwater remediation management through an improved credibility method.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing; Chen, Yizhong

2017-07-01

In this study, a human health risk constrained groundwater remediation management program based on the improved credibility is developed for naphthalene contamination. The program integrates simulation, multivariate regression analysis, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and nonlinear optimization into a general framework. The improved credibility-based optimization model for groundwater remediation management with consideration of human health risk (ICOM-HHR) is capable of not only effectively addressing parameter uncertainties and risk-exceeding possibility in human health risk but also providing a credibility level that indicates the satisfaction of the optimal groundwater remediation strategies with multiple contributions of possibility and necessity. The capabilities and effectiveness of ICOM-HHR are illustrated through a real-world case study in Anhui Province, China. Results indicate that the ICOM-HHR would generate double remediation cost yet reduce approximately 10 times of the naphthalene concentrations at monitoring wells, i.e., mostly less than 1 μg/L, which implies that the ICOM-HHR usually results in better environmental and health risk benefits. And it is acceptable to obtain a better environmental quality and a lower health risk level with sacrificing a certain economic benefit.

Risk factors for opioid overdose and awareness of overdose risk among veterans prescribed chronic opioids for addiction or pain.

PubMed

Wilder, Christine M; Miller, Shannon C; Tiffany, Elizabeth; Winhusen, Theresa; Winstanley, Erin L; Stein, Michael D

2016-01-01

Rising overdose fatalities among U.S. veterans suggest veterans taking prescription opioids may be at risk for overdose. However, it is unclear whether veterans prescribed chronic opioids are aware of this risk. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors and determine awareness of risk for opioid overdose in veterans treated with opioids for chronic pain, using veterans treated with methadone or buprenorphine for opioid use disorder as a high-risk comparator group. In the current study, 90 veterans on chronic opioid medication, for either opioid use disorder or pain management, completed a questionnaire assessing risk factors, knowledge, and self-estimate of risk for overdose. Nearly all veterans in both groups had multiple overdose risk factors, although individuals in the pain management group had on average a significantly lower total number of risk factors than did individuals in the opioid use disorder group (5.9 versus 8.5, p < .0001). On average, participants treated for pain management scored slightly but significantly lower on knowledge of opioid overdose risk factors (12.1 versus 13.5, p < .01). About 70% of participants, regardless of group, believed their overdose risk was below that of the average American adult. There was no significant relationship between self-estimate of overdose risk and either number or knowledge of opioid overdose risk factors. Our results suggest that veterans in both groups underestimated their risk for opioid overdose. Expansion of overdose education to include individuals on chronic opioids for pain management and a shift in educational approaches to overdose prevention may be indicated.

Clinical Equipoise and Shared Decision-making in Pulmonary Nodule Management. A Survey of American Thoracic Society Clinicians.

PubMed

Iaccarino, Jonathan M; Simmons, James; Gould, Michael K; Slatore, Christopher G; Woloshin, Steven; Schwartz, Lisa M; Wiener, Renda Soylemez

2017-06-01

Guidelines for pulmonary nodule evaluation suggest a variety of strategies, reflecting the lack of high-quality evidence demonstrating the superiority of any one approach. It is unclear whether clinicians agree that multiple management options are appropriate at different levels of risk and whether this impacts their decision-making approaches with patients. To assess clinicians' perceptions of the appropriateness of various diagnostic strategies, approach to decision-making, and perceived clinical equipoise in pulmonary nodule evaluation. We developed and administered a web-based survey in March and April, 2014 to clinician members of the American Thoracic Society. The primary outcome was perceived appropriateness of pulmonary nodule evaluation strategies in three clinical vignettes with different malignancy risk. We compared responses to guideline recommendations and analyzed clinician characteristics associated with a reported shared decision-making approach. We also assessed clinicians' likelihood to enroll patients in hypothetical randomized trials comparing nodule evaluation strategies. Of 5,872 American Thoracic Society members e-mailed, 1,444 opened the e-mail and 428 eligible clinicians participated in the survey (response rate, 30.0% among those who opened the invitation; 7% overall). The mean number of options considered appropriate increased with pretest probability of cancer, ranging from 1.8 (SD, 1.2) for the low-risk case to 3.5 (1.1) for the high-risk case (P < 0.0001). As recommended by guidelines, the proportion that deemed surgical resection as an appropriate option also increased with cancer risk (P < 0.0001). One-half of clinicians (50.4%) reported engaging in shared decision-making with patients for pulmonary nodule management; this was more commonly reported by clinicians with more years of experience (P = 0.01) and those who reported greater comfort in managing pulmonary nodules (P = 0.005). Although one-half (49.9%) deemed the evidence for pulmonary nodule evaluation to be strong, most clinicians were willing to enroll patients in randomized trials to compare nodule management strategies in all risk categories (low risk, 87.6%; moderate risk, 89.7%; high risk, 63.0%). Consistent with guideline recommendations, clinicians embrace multiple options for pulmonary nodule evaluation and many are open to shared decision-making. Clinicians support the need for randomized clinical trials to strengthen the evidence for nodule evaluation, which will further improve decision-making.

Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

PubMed

McClellan, R O

1994-12-01

This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks.

Risk assessment of pesticides and other stressors in bees: Principles, data gaps and perspectives from the European Food Safety Authority.

PubMed

Rortais, Agnès; Arnold, Gérard; Dorne, Jean-Lou; More, Simon J; Sperandio, Giorgio; Streissl, Franz; Szentes, Csaba; Verdonck, Frank

2017-06-01

Current approaches to risk assessment in bees do not take into account co-exposures from multiple stressors. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) is deploying resources and efforts to move towards a holistic risk assessment approach of multiple stressors in bees. This paper describes the general principles of pesticide risk assessment in bees, including recent developments at EFSA dealing with risk assessment of single and multiple pesticide residues and biological hazards. The EFSA Guidance Document on the risk assessment of plant protection products in bees highlights the need for the inclusion of an uncertainty analysis, other routes of exposures and multiple stressors such as chemical mixtures and biological agents. The EFSA risk assessment on the survival, spread and establishment of the small hive beetle, Aethina tumida, an invasive alien species, is provided with potential insights for other bee pests such as the Asian hornet, Vespa velutina. Furthermore, data gaps are identified at each step of the risk assessment, and recommendations are made for future research that could be supported under the framework of Horizon 2020. Finally, the recent work conducted at EFSA is presented, under the overarching MUST-B project ("EU efforts towards the development of a holistic approach for the risk assessment on MUltiple STressors in Bees") comprising a toolbox for harmonised data collection under field conditions and a mechanistic model to assess effects from pesticides and other stressors such as biological agents and beekeeping management practices, at the colony level and in a spatially complex landscape. Future perspectives at EFSA include the development of a data model to collate high quality data to calibrate and validate the model to be used as a regulatory tool. Finally, the evidence collected within the framework of MUST-B will support EFSA's activities on the development of a holistic approach to the risk assessment of multiple stressors in bees. In conclusion, EFSA calls for collaborative action at the EU level to establish a common and open access database to serve multiple purposes and different stakeholders. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating nonindigenous species management in a Bayesian networks derived relative risk framework for Padilla Bay, WA, USA.

PubMed

Herring, Carlie E; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2015-10-01

Many coastal regions are encountering issues with the spread of nonindigenous species (NIS). In this study, we conducted a regional risk assessment using a Bayesian network relative risk model (BN-RRM) to analyze multiple vectors of NIS introductions to Padilla Bay, Washington, a National Estuarine Research Reserve. We had 3 objectives in this study. The 1st objective was to determine whether the BN-RRM could be used to calculate risk from NIS introductions for Padilla Bay. Our 2nd objective was to determine which regions and endpoints were at greatest risk from NIS introductions. Our 3rd objective was to incorporate a management option into the model and predict endpoint risk if it were to be implemented. Eradication can occur at different stages of NIS invasions, such as the elimination of these species before being introduced to the habitat or removal of the species after settlement. We incorporated the ballast water treatment management scenario into the model, observed the risk to the endpoints, and compared this risk with the initial risk estimates. The model results indicated that the southern portion of the bay was at greatest risk because of NIS. Changes in community composition, Dungeness crab, and eelgrass were the endpoints most at risk from NIS introductions. The currents node, which controls the exposure of NIS to the bay from the surrounding marine environment, was the parameter that had the greatest influence on risk. The ballast water management scenario displayed an approximate 1% reduction in risk in this Padilla Bay case study. The models we developed provide an adaptable template for decision makers interested in managing NIS in other coastal regions and large bodies of water. © 2015 SETAC.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China.

PubMed

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G L; Liu, Renzhi

2017-04-20

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21-40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents.

Chronic periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome: a case report.

PubMed

Shimoe, Masayuki; Yamamoto, Tadashi; Iwamoto, Yoshihiro; Shiomi, Nobuyuki; Maeda, Hiroshi; Nishimura, Fusanori; Takashiba, Shogo

2011-07-01

Multiple risk factor syndrome is a clustering of cardiovascular risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and obesity associated epidemiologically with insulin resistance. This report describes the clinical course of a patient suffering from severe periodontitis with multiple risk factor syndrome, and discusses the association between periodontal infection and systemic health. The patient had a history of type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension for over 10 years. At baseline, her hemoglobin A1 c was 8.1%. However, she had no diabetic complications except periodontitis. The IgG antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis FDC 381 and SU63 were elevated above the mean of healthy subjects +2 standard deviations. Intensive periodontal treatment, including periodontal surgery, was performed to reduce periodontal infection and bacteremia. Her systemic and periodontal conditions were evaluated longitudinally for 10 years. Following periodontal treatment, antibody titers against Porphyromonas gingivalis and hemoglobin A1c values were significantly improved. The other clinical data and medication for her systemic condition also remained stable during supportive periodontal therapy. However, she developed myocardial infarction, and showed continuous deterioration of hemoglobin A1 c level and periodontitis. The long-term clustering of risk factors, such as diabetes, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and periodontitis, are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. Treatment of systemic conditions in combination with comprehensive periodontal treatment is important in management of patients with multiple risk factor syndrome.

The role of Indigenous knowledge in environmental health risk management in Yukon, Canada

PubMed Central

Friendship, Katelyn A.; Furgal, Chris M.

2012-01-01

Objectives This project aimed to gain better understandings of northern Indigenous risk perception related to food safety and to identify the role that Indigenous knowledge (IK) plays in risk management processes to support more effective and culturally relevant benefit-risk (B-R) management strategies. Study design The project used an exploratory qualitative case study design to investigate the role and place of IK in the management of environmental contaminants exposure via consumption of traditional foods in Yukon First Nations (YFNs). Methods Forty-one semi-directive interviews with Traditional Food Knowledge Holders and Health and Environment Decision-makers were conducted. A review and analysis of organizational documents related to past risk management events for the issue was conducted. Thematic content analysis was used to analyze transcripts and documents for key themes related to the research question. Results There was a recognized need by all participants for better collaboration between scientists and YFN communities. YFNs have been involved in identifying and defining community concerns about past risk issues, setting a local context, and participating in communications strategies. Interviewees stressed the need to commit adequate time for building relationships, physically being in the community, and facilitating open communication. Conducting community-based projects was identified as critical for collaboration and for cooperative learning and management of these issues. Conclusions The perception of “effective” benefit-risk management is significantly influenced by the efforts made to include local communities in the process. A set of common guiding principles within a process that brings together people and knowledge systems may provide a more effective way forward in cross-cultural, multiple knowledge system contexts for complex benefit-risk issues than a prescriptive rigid framework. PMID:22868192

AN OPTIMAL MAINTENANCE MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR AIRPORT CONCRETE PAVEMENT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimomura, Taizo; Fujimori, Yuji; Kaito, Kiyoyuki; Obama, Kengo; Kobayashi, Kiyoshi

In this paper, an optimal management model is formulated for the performance-based rehabilitation/maintenance contract for airport concrete pavement, whereby two types of life cycle cost risks, i.e., ground consolidation risk and concrete depreciation risk, are explicitly considered. The non-homogenous Markov chain model is formulated to represent the deterioration processes of concrete pavement which are conditional upon the ground consolidation processes. The optimal non-homogenous Markov decision model with multiple types of risk is presented to design the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans. And the methodology to revise the optimal rehabilitation/maintenance plans based upon the monitoring data by the Bayesian up-to-dating rules. The validity of the methodology presented in this paper is examined based upon the case studies carried out for the H airport.

Who's responsible for the care of women during and after a pregnancy affected by gestational diabetes?

PubMed

Wilkinson, Shelley A; Lim, Siew S; Upham, Susan; Pennington, Andrew; O'Reilly, Sharleen L; Asproloupos, Dino; McIntyre, H David; Dunbar, James A

2014-08-04

Despite its increasing incidence and high conferred risk to women and their children, gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is managed inconsistently during and after pregnancy due to an absence of a systemic approach to managing these women. New guidelines for GDM testing and diagnosis are based on stronger evidence, but raise concerns about increased workloads and confusion in a landscape of multiple, conflicting guidelines. Postnatal care and long-term preventive measures are particularly fragmented, with no professional group taking responsibility for this crucial role. Clearer guidelines and assistance from existing frameworks, such as the National Gestational Diabetes Register, could enable general practitioners to take ownership of the management of women at risk of type 2 diabetes following GDM, applying the principles of chronic disease management long term.

Demographic, socioeconomic and clinical correlates of self-management in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Wilski, Maciej; Tasiemski, Tomasz; Kocur, Piotr

2015-01-01

Our aim was to identify demographic, clinical and socioeconomic predictors of self-management in multiple sclerosis (MS). The study was performed on a group of 283 patients with multiple sclerosis who completed Multiple Sclerosis Self-Management Scale - Revised (MSSM-R), Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale (MSIS-29), Actually Received Support Scale (part of Berlin Social Support Scale), Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Socioeconomic resources scale. Patients were recruited through cooperation with Multiple Sclerosis Rehabilitation Centre in Borne Sulinowo and Polish Society of Multiple Sclerosis. Demographic and illness-related problems were determined with self-report survey. The group consisted of 185 women and 98 men, with a mean age of 48 years. The level of disability and disease severity varied, mean time elapsed since MS diagnosis was 13 years. The final predictive model of self-management in MS was based on two main predictors: received support and available socioeconomic resources. Patients with MS who received adequate support from the closest relatives (R(2 )= 0.07, F(1, 279) = 21.84, p ≤ 0.01) and had larger available socioeconomic resources (R(2) = 0.11, F(2, 278) = 17.06, p ≤ 0.01), turned out to be the most effective in self-management. Moreover, a relationship between self-management in MS and gender as well as monthly income attributable to one family member was documented. We identified a group of MS patients who are at an increased risk of poor self-management and therefore require more attention from medical staff. This group includes patients with low level of received support, low socioeconomic resources and to a lesser degree men, and also persons receiving low monthly income. Implications for Rehabilitation Self-management of chronic illness is a key component of active participation in rehabilitation process. Low self-management in multiple sclerosis (MS) is considered to be one of the most important factors contributing to low rehabilitation efficacy, more severe long-term complications and increase in healthcare costs. Knowledge on predictors of self-management should be used in clinical practice when providing treatment, support, education and rehabilitation for patients with MS. Increasing support and improving social conditions are potentially important targets for interventions aimed at optimization of self-management, and thereby reduction of health care costs and improvement of health.

Problem formulation for risk assessment of combined exposures to chemicals and other stressors in humans.

PubMed

Solomon, Keith R; Wilks, Martin F; Bachman, Ammie; Boobis, Alan; Moretto, Angelo; Pastoor, Timothy P; Phillips, Richard; Embry, Michelle R

2016-11-01

When the human health risk assessment/risk management paradigm was developed, it did not explicitly include a "problem formulation" phase. The concept of problem formulation was first introduced in the context of ecological risk assessment (ERA) for the pragmatic reason to constrain and focus ERAs on the key questions. However, this need also exists for human health risk assessment, particularly for cumulative risk assessment (CRA), because of its complexity. CRA encompasses the combined threats to health from exposure via all relevant routes to multiple stressors, including biological, chemical, physical and psychosocial stressors. As part of the HESI Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) Project, a framework for CRA was developed in which problem formulation plays a critical role. The focus of this effort is primarily on a chemical CRA (i.e., two or more chemicals) with subsequent consideration of non-chemical stressors, defined as "modulating factors" (ModFs). Problem formulation is a systematic approach that identifies all factors critical to a specific risk assessment and considers the purpose of the assessment, scope and depth of the necessary analysis, analytical approach, available resources and outcomes, and overall risk management goal. There are numerous considerations that are specific to multiple stressors, and proper problem formulation can help to focus a CRA to the key factors in order to optimize resources. As part of the problem formulation, conceptual models for exposures and responses can be developed that address these factors, such as temporal relationships between stressors and consideration of the appropriate ModFs.

The Resilient Economy: Integrating Competitiveness and Security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Debbie van Opstal

2009-01-07

Globalization, technological complexity, interdependence, terrorism, climate and energy volatility, and pandemic potential are increasing the level of risk that societies and organizations now face. Risks also are increasingly interrelated; disruptions in one area can cascade in multiple directions. The ability to manage emerging risks, anticipate the interactions between different types of risk, and bounce back from disruption will be a competitive differentiator for companies and countries alike in the 21st century. What Policymakers Should Know The national objective is not just homeland protection, but economic resilience: the ability to mitigate and recover quickly from disruption. Businesses must root the casemore » for investment in resilience strategies to manage a spectrum of risks, not just catastrophic ones. Making a business case for investment in defenses against low-probability events (even those with high impact) is difficult. However, making a business case for investments that assure business continuity and shareholder value is not a heavy lift. There are an infinite number of disruption scenarios, but only a finite number of outcomes. Leading organizations do not manage specific scenarios, rather they create the agility and flexibility to cope with turbulent situations. The investments and contingency plans these leading companies make to manage a spectrum of risk create a capability to respond to high-impact disasters as well. Government regulations tend to stovepipe different types of risk, which impedes companies abilities to manage risk in an integrated way. Policies to strengthen risk management capabilities would serve both security and competitiveness goals. What CEOs and Boards Should Know Operational risks are growing rapidly and outpacing many companies abilities to manage them. Corporate leadership has historically viewed operational risk management as a back office control function. But managing operational risks increasingly affects real-time financial performance. The 835 companies that announced a supply chain disruption between 1989 and 2000 experienced 33 percent to 40 percent lower stock returns than their industry peers. Twenty-five percent of companies that experienced an IT outage of two to six days went bankrupt immediately. Ninety-three percent of companies that lost their data center for 10 days or more filed for bankruptcy within a year.« less

Epigenetics lights up the obesity field

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Despite advances in the prevention and management of cardiovascular disease (CVD), this group of multifactorial disorders remains a leading cause of mortality worldwide. CVD is associated with multiple genetic and modifiable risk factors; however, known environmental and genetic influences can only ...

Risk Factors and Stroke Characteristic in Patients with Postoperative Strokes.

PubMed

Dong, Yi; Cao, Wenjie; Cheng, Xin; Fang, Kun; Zhang, Xiaolong; Gu, Yuxiang; Leng, Bing; Dong, Qiang

2017-07-01

Intravenous thrombolysis and intra-arterial thrombectomy are now the standard therapies for patients with acute ischemic stroke. In-house strokes have often been overlooked even at stroke centers and there is no consensus on how they should be managed. Perioperative stroke happens rather frequently but treatment protocol is lacking, In China, the issue of in-house strokes has not been explored. The aim of this study is to explore the current management of in-house stroke and identify the common risk factors associated with perioperative strokes. Altogether, 51,841 patients were admitted to a tertiary hospital in Shanghai and the records of those who had a neurological consult for stroke were reviewed. Their demographics, clinical characteristics, in-hospital complications and operations, and management plans were prospectively studied. Routine laboratory test results and risk factors of these patients were analyzed by multiple logistic regression model. From January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, over 1800 patients had neurological consultations. Among these patients, 37 had an in-house stroke and 20 had more severe stroke during the postoperative period. Compared to in-house stroke patients without a procedure or operation, leukocytosis and elevated fasting glucose levels were more common in perioperative strokes. In multiple logistic regression model, perioperative strokes were more likely related to large vessel occlusion. Patients with perioperative strokes had different risk factors and severity from other in-house strokes. For these patients, obtaining a neurological consultation prior to surgery may be appropriate in order to evaluate the risk of perioperative stroke. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Stress in multiple sclerosis: review of new developments and future directions.

PubMed

Lovera, Jesus; Reza, Tara

2013-11-01

In the experimental autoimmune encephalitis model of multiple sclerosis, the effects of stress on disease severity depend on multiple factors, including the animal's genetics and the type of stressor. The studies in humans relating stress to the risk of developing multiple sclerosis have found discordant results. The studies looking at the association of stress with relapses show a fairly consistent association, where higher stress is associated with a higher risk of relapse. Higher stress levels also appear to increase the risk of development of gadolinium-enhancing lesions. A recent randomized trial shows that reducing stress using stress management therapy (SMT), a cognitive-behavioral therapy approach, results in a statistically significant reduction in new magnetic resonance imaging lesions. The magnitude of this effect is large and comparable to the effects of existent disease-modifying therapies, but no data exist yet proving that SMT reduces relapses or clinical progression; the effect of SMT appears to be short-lived. Additional work is needed to improve the duration of this effect and make this therapy more widely accessible.

Pediatric magnet ingestions: the dark side of the force.

PubMed

Brown, Julie C; Otjen, Jeffrey P; Drugas, George T

2014-05-01

Pediatric magnet ingestions are increasing. Commercial availability of rare-earth magnets poses a serious health risk. This study defines incidence, characteristics, and management of ingestions over time. Cases were identified by searching radiology reports from June 2002 to December 2012 at a children's hospital and verified by chart and imaging review. Relative risk (RR) regressions determined changes in incidence and interventions over time. In all, 98% of ingestions occurred since 2006; 57% involved multiple magnets. Median age was 8 years (range 0 to 18); 0% of single and 56% of multiple ingestions required intervention. Compared with 2007 to 2009, ingestions increased from 2010 to 2012 (RR = 1.9, 95% confidence interval 1.2 to 3.0). Intervention proportion was unchanged (RR = .94, 95% confidence interval .4 to 2.2). Small spherical magnets comprised 26.8% of ingestions since 2010; 86% involved multiple magnets and 47% required intervention. Pediatric magnet ingestions and interventions have increased. Multiple ingestions prompt more imaging and surgical interventions. Magnet safety standards are needed to decrease risk to children. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Incidence of neutropenia and use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factors in multiple myeloma: is current clinical practice adequate?

PubMed

Leleu, Xavier; Gay, Francesca; Flament, Anne; Allcott, Kim; Delforge, Michel

2018-03-01

Although immunomodulatory drugs, alkylating agents, corticosteroids, protease inhibitors, and therapeutic monoclonal antibodies improve multiple myeloma outcomes, treatment burden is still an issue. Neutropenia is a known complication of cytotoxic cancer therapy and is often associated with infections; it is an important consideration in myeloma given the fact that patients often have a weakened immune system. The risk of febrile neutropenia increases with severe and persisting neutropenia. Recombinant granulocyte colony-stimulating factors (G-CSFs) are commonly used to reduce the incidence, duration, and severity of febrile neutropenia. Here, we review the risk and management of neutropenia associated with new and commonly used anti-myeloma agents. Few papers report the use of G-CSF in patients with multiple myeloma receiving anti-cancer treatments, and fewer describe whether G-CSF was beneficial. None of the identified studies reported G-CSF primary prophylaxis. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the need for G-CSF prophylaxis in multiple myeloma. Prophylaxis may be particularly useful in patients at high risk of prolonged severe neutropenia.

Data on German farmers risk preference, perception and management strategies.

PubMed

Meraner, Manuela; Finger, Robert

2017-12-01

The extent to which people are willing to take on risk, i.e. their risk preferences as well as subjective risk perception plays a major role in explaining their behavior. This is of particular relevance in agricultural production, which is inherently risky. The data presented here was collected amongst a total of 64 German farmers in 2015. It includes results of three different risk preference elicitation methods (multiple price list, business statements in four relevant domains and general self-assessment) as well as risk perception. Additionally, farm business characteristics (e.g. size, farm-level workforce, succession) and personal farmer characteristics (e.g. age, gender, risk literacy) are included.

2012 AAPS National Biotech Conference Open Forum: a perspective on the current state of immunogenicity prediction and risk management.

PubMed

Rajadhyaksha, Manoj; Subramanyam, Meena; Rup, Bonnie

2013-10-01

The immunogenicity profile of a biotherapeutic is determined by multiple product-, process- or manufacturing-, patient- and treatment-related factors and the bioanalytical methodology used to monitor for immunogenicity. This creates a complex situation that limits direct correlation of individual factors to observed immunogenicity rates. Therefore, mechanistic understanding of how these factors individually or in concert could influence the overall incidence and clinical risk of immunogenicity is crucial to provide the best benefit/risk profile for a given biotherapeutic in a given indication and to inform risk mitigation strategies. Advances in the field of immunogenicity have included development of best practices for monitoring anti-drug antibody development, categorization of risk factors contributing to immunogenicity, development of predictive tools, and development of effective strategies for risk management and mitigation. Thus, the opportunity to ask "where we are now and where we would like to go from here?" was the main driver for organizing an Open Forum on Improving Immunogenicity Risk Prediction and Management, conducted at the 2012 American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists' (AAPS) National Biotechnology Conference in San Diego. The main objectives of the Forum include the following: to understand the nature of immunogenicity risk factors, to identify analytical tools used and animal models and management strategies needed to improve their predictive value, and finally to identify collaboration opportunities to improve the reliability of risk prediction, mitigation, and management. This meeting report provides the Forum participant's and author's perspectives on the barriers to advancing this field and recommendations for overcoming these barriers through collaborative efforts.

EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL ALERT CHAIN IN CASTILLA Y LEÓN (SPAIN): How can the meteorological risk managers help researchers?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López, Laura; Guerrero-Higueras, Ángel Manuel; Sánchez, José Luis; Matía, Pedro; Ortiz de Galisteo, José Pablo; Rodríguez, Vicente; Lorente, José Manuel; Merino, Andrés; Hermida, Lucía; García-Ortega, Eduardo; Fernández-Manso, Oscar

2013-04-01

Evaluating the meteorological alert chain, or, how information is transmitted from the meteorological forecasters to the final users, passing through risk managers, is a useful tool that benefits all the links of the chain, especially the meteorology researchers and forecasters. In fact, the risk managers can help significantly to improve meteorological forecasts in different ways. Firstly, by pointing out the most appropriate type of meteorological format, and its characteristics when representing the meteorological information, consequently improving the interpretation of the already-existing forecasts. Secondly, by pointing out the specific predictive needs in their workplaces related to the type of significant meteorological parameters, temporal or spatial range necessary, meteorological products "custom-made" for each type of risk manager, etc. In order to carry out an evaluation of the alert chain in Castilla y León, we opted for the creation of a Panel of Experts made up of personnel specialized in risk management (Responsible for Protection Civil, Responsible for Alert Services and Hydrological Planning of Hydrographical Confederations, Responsible for highway maintenance, and management of fires, fundamentally). In creating this panel, a total of twenty online questions were evaluated, and the majority of the questions were multiple choice or open-ended. Some of the results show how the risk managers think that it would be interesting, or very interesting, to carry out environmental educational campaigns about the meteorological risks in Castilla y León. Another result is the elevated importance that the risk managers provide to the observation data in real-time (real-time of wind, lightning, relative humidity, combined indices of risk of avalanches, snowslides, index of fires due to convective activity, etc.) Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Junta de Castilla y León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2.

Geospatial Informational Security Risks and Concerns of the U.S. Air Force GeoBase Program

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

multiple governmental directives such as the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA), and Office of Management and... governments , non- governmental organizations (NGOs), universities, and commercial sector contractors (Lachman, 2006). One command noted that over...Defense, or the United States Government . AFIT/GEM/ENV/07-M1 GEOSPATIAL INFORMATIONAL SECURITY RISKS AND CONCERNS OF THE UNITED STATES

What are the real risks of sport-related concussion, and are they modifiable?

PubMed

Randolph, Christopher; Kirkwood, Michael W

2009-07-01

Over the past two decades, the management of sport-related concussion has been the topic of increased attention in the scientific literature and in the popular media. Despite a proliferation of competing guidelines for concussion management, the widespread use of neuropsychological "baseline" testing designed to monitor postinjury recovery, and several prospective controlled studies of the natural history of concussion, there has been virtually no attempt to quantify the risks associated with sport-related concussion or to determine whether these risks are modifiable via management strategies. Using American football as a model, the short- and long-term risks of sport-related concussion are reviewed. It is concluded that serious short-term consequences of sport-related concussion are extremely rare and unlikely to be significantly modified via management strategies that rely on baseline testing. Other less serious short-term adverse outcomes are also quite rare, transient, and not likely to be altered by specific management guidelines. The long-term consequences of multiple sport-related head trauma remain unclear but are potentially of greater public health concern and should be the focus of increased research. Based on available evidence, there is little rationale for the use of rigid strategies or guidelines in the place of individual clinical decision-making in the management of these injuries.

Unanswered clinical questions in the management of cardiometabolic risk in the elderly: a statement of the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine.

PubMed

Gómez-Huelgas, Ricardo; Giner-Galvañ, Vicente; Mostaza, José M; Cuende, José I; de Miguel-Yanes, Jose M; Rovira, Eduardo; Sánchez-Fuentes, Demetrio; Suárez Fernández, Carmen; Román Sánchez, Pilar

2014-12-18

Despite the progressive increase in life expectancy and the relationship between aging with multi-morbidities and the increased use of healthcare resources, current clinical practice guidelines (CPG) on cardiometabolic risk cannot be adequately applied to elderly subjects with multiple chronic conditions. Its management frequently becomes complicated by both, an excessive use of medications that may lead to overtreatment, drug interactions and increased toxicity, and errors in dosage and non-compliance. Concerned by this gap, the Spanish Society of Internal Medicine created a group of independent experts on cardiometabolic risk who discussed what they considered to be unanswered questions in the management of elderly patients. Current guidelines do not specifically address the problem of elderly with multiple chronic conditions. For this reason, the combined use of the limited available evidence, clinical experience and common sense, could all help us to address this unmet need. In very old people, life expectancy and functionality are the most important factors for guiding potential treatments. Their higher propensity to develop serious adverse events and their shorter lifespan could prevent them from obtaining the potential benefits of the interventions administered. In this document, experts on cardiometabolic risk factors have established a number of consensual recommendations that have taken into account international guidelines and clinical experience, and have also considered the more effective use of healthcare resources. This document is intended to provide general recommendations for clinicians and to promote the effective use of procedures and medications.

Obesity prevention in pediatrics: A pilot pediatric resident curriculum intervention on nutrition and obesity education and counseling.

PubMed

Gonzalez, Jose L; Gilmer, Loise

2006-09-01

Obesity is a highly burdensome public health issue associated with premature death, multiple comorbid disabilities and staggering healthcare costs. Between 1980-2000, the prevalence of obesity among children and adolescents nearly tripled. Obesity subjects youth to social stigmatization and discrimination. These economic and personal burdens mandate targeted prevention and detection educational programs for all individuals at risk. The most cost-effective method of approaching this obesity epidemic is through education of health professionals. As part of an "Obesity Prevention in Pediatrics" curriculum, postgraduate-year (PGY)-2 residents first observed and then participated in the dietary evaluation and counseling of pediatric patients and their families. Attitudinal questionnaires, multiple-choice knowledge examinations and a pre-established checklist of desired skills and behaviors provided evaluation of the curriculum's effect on the participants' ability and willingness to manage actually obese or at-risk pediatric patients and their families. Attitudinal survey and knowledge test scores from control PGY-3 residents generally confirmed that their knowledge and counseling skills on obesity prevention and management were well below expectation. Following participation in the curriculum, study residents' knowledge tended to improve, as did their level of comfort in counseling obese and at-risk children, adolescents and their parents. Implementation of an "Obesity Prevention in Pediatrics" curriculum appears to improve participants' knowledge base as well as their skills and level of personal comfort in the recognition, evaluation and management, including counseling, of both obese and at-risk pediatric patients and their families.

Water shortage risk assessment considering large-scale regional transfers: a copula-based uncertainty case study in Lunan, China.

PubMed

Gao, Xueping; Liu, Yinzhu; Sun, Bowen

2018-06-05

The risk of water shortage caused by uncertainties, such as frequent drought, varied precipitation, multiple water resources, and different water demands, brings new challenges to the water transfer projects. Uncertainties exist for transferring water and local surface water; therefore, the relationship between them should be thoroughly studied to prevent water shortage. For more effective water management, an uncertainty-based water shortage risk assessment model (UWSRAM) is developed to study the combined effect of multiple water resources and analyze the shortage degree under uncertainty. The UWSRAM combines copula-based Monte Carlo stochastic simulation and the chance-constrained programming-stochastic multiobjective optimization model, using the Lunan water-receiving area in China as an example. Statistical copula functions are employed to estimate the joint probability of available transferring water and local surface water and sampling from the multivariate probability distribution, which are used as inputs for the optimization model. The approach reveals the distribution of water shortage and is able to emphasize the importance of improving and updating transferring water and local surface water management, and examine their combined influence on water shortage risk assessment. The possible available water and shortages can be calculated applying the UWSRAM, also with the corresponding allocation measures under different water availability levels and violating probabilities. The UWSRAM is valuable for mastering the overall multi-water resource and water shortage degree, adapting to the uncertainty surrounding water resources, establishing effective water resource planning policies for managers and achieving sustainable development.

Nurse practitioners: leadership behaviors and organizational climate.

PubMed

Jones, L C; Guberski, T D; Soeken, K L

1990-01-01

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationships of individual nurse practitioners' perceptions of the leadership climate in their organizations and self-reported formal and informal leadership behaviors. The nine climate dimensions (Structure, Responsibility, Reward, Perceived Support of Risk Taking, Warmth, Support, Standard Setting, Conflict, and Identity) identified by Litwin and Stringer in 1968 were used to predict five leadership dimensions (Meeting Organizational Needs, Managing Resources, Leadership Competence, Task Accomplishment, and Communications). Demographic variables of age, educational level, and percent of time spent performing administrative functions were forced as a first step in each multiple regression analysis and used to explain a significant amount of variance in all but one analysis. All leadership dimensions were predicted by at least one organizational climate dimension: (1) Meeting Organizational Needs by Risk and Reward; (2) Managing Resources by Risk and Structure; (3) Leadership Competence by Risk and Standards; (4) Task Accomplishment by Structure, Risk, and Standards; and (5) Communication by Rewards.

Why projects often fail even with high cost contingencies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kujawski, Edouard

2002-02-28

In this note we assume that the individual risks have been adequately quantified and the total project cost contingency adequately computed to ensure an agreed-to probability or confidence level that the total project cost estimate will not be exceeded. But even projects that implement such a process are likely to result in significant cost overruns and/or project failure if the project manager allocates the contingencies to the individual subsystems. The intuitive and mathematically valid solution is to maintain a project-wide contingency and to distribute it to the individual risks on an as-needed basis. Such an approach ensures cost-efficient risk management,more » and projects that implement it are more likely to succeed and to cost less. We illustrate these ideas using a simplified project with two independent risks. The formulation can readily be extended to multiple risks.« less

Environmental risk assessment of water quality in harbor areas: a new methodology applied to European ports.

PubMed

Gómez, Aina G; Ondiviela, Bárbara; Puente, Araceli; Juanes, José A

2015-05-15

This work presents a standard and unified procedure for assessment of environmental risks at the contaminant source level in port aquatic systems. Using this method, port managers and local authorities will be able to hierarchically classify environmental hazards and proceed with the most suitable management actions. This procedure combines rigorously selected parameters and indicators to estimate the environmental risk of each contaminant source based on its probability, consequences and vulnerability. The spatio-temporal variability of multiple stressors (agents) and receptors (endpoints) is taken into account to provide accurate estimations for application of precisely defined measures. The developed methodology is tested on a wide range of different scenarios via application in six European ports. The validation process confirms its usefulness, versatility and adaptability as a management tool for port water quality in Europe and worldwide. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing risk in healthcare: understanding your safety culture using the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF).

PubMed

Parker, Dianne

2009-03-01

To provide sufficient information about the Manchester Patient Safety Framework (MaPSaF) to allow healthcare professionals to assess its potential usefulness. The assessment of safety culture is an important aspect of risk management, and one in which there is increasing interest among healthcare organizations. Manchester Patient Safety Framework offers a theory-based framework for assessing safety culture, designed specifically for use in the NHS. The framework covers multiple dimensions of safety culture, and five levels of safety culture development. This allows the generation of a profile of an organization's safety culture in terms of areas of relative strength and challenge, which can be used to identify focus issues for change and improvement. Manchester Patient Safety Framework provides a useful method for engaging healthcare professionals in assessing and improving the safety culture in their organization, as part of a programme of risk management.

Associations between feedlot management practices and bovine respiratory disease in Australian feedlot cattle.

PubMed

Hay, K E; Morton, J M; Clements, A C A; Mahony, T J; Barnes, T S

2016-06-01

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the major cause of clinical disease and death in feedlot cattle. A prospective longitudinal study was conducted in a population of Australian feedlot cattle to assess associations between factors related to feedlot management and risk of BRD. In total, 35,131 animals in 170 pens (cohorts) inducted into 14 feedlots were included in statistical analyses. Causal diagrams were used to inform model building to allow separate estimation of total and direct effects. Multilevel mixed effects logistic regression models were fitted within the Bayesian framework. The placement of pen water troughs such that they could be accessed by animals in adjoining pens was associated with markedly increased risk of BRD (OR 4.3, 95% credible interval: 1.4-10.3). Adding animals to pens over multiple days was associated with increased risk of BRD across all animals in those pens compared to placing all animals in the pen on a single day (total effect: OR 1.9, 95% credible interval: 1.2-2.8). The much attenuated direct effect indicated that this was primarily mediated via factors on indirect pathways so it may be possible to ameliorate the adverse effects of adding animals to pens over multiple days by altering exposure to these intervening factors (e.g. mixing history). In pens in which animals were added to the pen over multiple days, animals added ≥7 days (OR: 0.7, credible interval: 0.5-0.9) or 1-6 days (OR: 0.8, credible interval: 0.7-1.0) before the last animal was added were at modestly reduced risk of BRD compared to the animals that were added to the pen on the latest day. Further research is required to disentangle effects of cohort formation patterns at animal-level and higher levels on animal-level risk of BRD. Vaccination against Bovine herpesvirus 1 at feedlot entry was investigated but results were inconclusive and further research is required to evaluate vaccine efficacy. We conclude that there are practical interventions available to feedlot managers to reduce the risk of cattle developing BRD at the feedlot. We recommend placement of water troughs in feedlot pens so that they cannot be accessed by animals in adjoining pens. Further research is required to identify practical and cost-effective management strategies that allow longer adaption times for cattle identified prior to induction as being at higher risk of developing BRD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Risk-based Assessment And Management Framework For Multipollutant Air Quality

PubMed Central

Frey, H. Christopher; Hubbell, Bryan

2010-01-01

The National Research Council recommended both a risk- and performance-based multipollutant approach to air quality management. Specifically, management decisions should be based on minimizing the exposure to, and risk of adverse effects from, multiple sources of air pollution and that the success of these decisions should be measured by how well they achieved this objective. We briefly describe risk analysis and its application within the current approach to air quality management. Recommendations are made as to how current practice could evolve to support a fully risk- and performance-based multipollutant air quality management system. The ability to implement a risk assessment framework in a credible and policy-relevant manner depends on the availability of component models and data which are scientifically sound and developed with an understanding of their application in integrated assessments. The same can be said about accountability assessments used to evaluate the outcomes of decisions made using such frameworks. The existing risk analysis framework, although typically applied to individual pollutants, is conceptually well suited for analyzing multipollutant management actions. Many elements of this framework, such as emissions and air quality modeling, already exist with multipollutant characteristics. However, the framework needs to be supported with information on exposure and concentration response relationships that result from multipollutant health studies. Because the causal chain that links management actions to emission reductions, air quality improvements, exposure reductions and health outcomes is parallel between prospective risk analyses and retrospective accountability assessments, both types of assessment should be placed within a single framework with common metrics and indicators where possible. Improvements in risk reductions can be obtained by adopting a multipollutant risk analysis framework within the current air quality management system, e.g. focused on standards for individual pollutants and with separate goals for air toxics and ambient pollutants. However, additional improvements may be possible if goals and actions are defined in terms of risk metrics that are comparable across criteria pollutants and air toxics (hazardous air pollutants), and that encompass both human health and ecological risks. PMID:21209847

Assessing and managing breast cancer risk: clinicians' current practice and future needs.

PubMed

Collins, Ian M; Steel, Emma; Mann, G Bruce; Emery, Jon D; Bickerstaffe, Adrian; Trainer, Alison; Butow, Phyllis; Pirotta, Marie; Antoniou, Antonis C; Cuzick, Jack; Hopper, John; Phillips, Kelly-Anne; Keogh, Louise A

2014-10-01

Decision support tools for the assessment and management of breast cancer risk may improve uptake of prevention strategies. End-user input in the design of such tools is critical to increase clinical use. Before developing such a computerized tool, we examined clinicians' practice and future needs. Twelve breast surgeons, 12 primary care physicians and 5 practice nurses participated in 4 focus groups. These were recorded, coded, and analyzed to identify key themes. Participants identified difficulties assessing risk, including a lack of available tools to standardize practice. Most expressed confidence identifying women at potentially high risk, but not moderate risk. Participants felt a tool could especially reassure young women at average risk. Desirable features included: evidence-based, accessible (e.g. web-based), and displaying absolute (not relative) risks in multiple formats. The potential to create anxiety was a concern. Development of future tools should address these issues to optimize translation of knowledge into clinical practice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can Cardiovascular Epidemiology and Clinical Trials Close the Risk Management Gap Between Diabetes and Prediabetes?

PubMed

Perreault, Leigh; Færch, Kristine; Gregg, Edward W

2017-09-01

We reviewed published literature to determine the relationship between A1c and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and summarize the need and implications for CVD risk reduction with interventions, focusing in the prediabetic A1c range (<6.5%). Strong evidence supports a continuous relationship between A1c and CVD-even below the current levels of A1c-defined prediabetes and after adjustment for known risk factors for CVD. Clinical trials have demonstrated a reduction in CV morbidity and/or mortality when interventions are invoked in the prediabetic A1c range. Guidelines advocating CV risk factor management in prediabetes have not been widely adopted, subsequently leading to comparable coronary heart disease risk between people with prediabetes (HR = 1.9, 95% CI 1.7-2.1 vs normoglycemia) and diabetes itself (HR=2.0, 95% CI 1.8-2.2 vs no diabetes). This review highlights the missed opportunity to utilize multiple risk factor interventions to reduce CVD in high-risk people with prediabetes.

A Holistic Approach for Risk Management During Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila

2006-01-01

In this paper, an approach for the identification, assessment, mitigation and continuous management of risks during the process of designing a space mission is presented. This approach has been developed by observing the risk patterns that occur at the Project Design Center of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (TeamX) which develops conceptual, concurrent design of Space Missions. TeamX develops an end-to-end conceptual design of a Space Mission in a matter of one or two weeks. As the risk chair in TeamX, the author has had the opportunity to observe the risk patterns that occur during design over the course of many design sessions. This paper introduces an abstraction and generalization of those patterns. Risk is defined as anything that can go wrong, along with its approximate likelihood and consequence. The indicators, and causes, and effects of these risks are cross cutting across the multiple levels of people and processes involved in the design, and the actual design product itself.

Enhanced project management tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hsu, Chen-Jung (Inventor); Patel, Hemil N. (Inventor); Maluf, David A. (Inventor); Moh Hashim, Jairon C. (Inventor); Tran, Khai Peter B. (Inventor)

2012-01-01

A system for managing a project that includes multiple tasks and a plurality of workers. Input information includes characterizations based upon a human model, a team model and a product model. Periodic reports, such as one or more of a monthly report, a task plan report, a schedule report, a budget report and a risk management report, are generated and made available for display or further analysis or collection into a customized report template. An extensible database allows searching for information based upon context and upon content. Seven different types of project risks are addressed, including non-availability of required skill mix of workers. The system can be configured to exchange data and results with corresponding portions of similar project analyses, and to provide user-specific access to specified information.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Incorporation of real-time component information using equipment condition assessment (ECA) through the developmentof enhanced risk monitors (ERM) for active components in advanced reactor (AR) and advanced small modular reactor (SMR) designs. We incorporate time-dependent failure probabilities from prognostic health management (PHM) systems to dynamically update the risk metric of interest. This information is used to augment data used for supervisory control and plant-wide coordination of multiple modules by providing the incremental risk incurred due to aging and demands placed on components that support mission requirements.

Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carr, Natasha B.; Means, Robert E.

2013-01-01

The overall goal of the Wyoming Basin Rapid Ecoregional Assessment (REA) is to provide information that supports regional planning and analysis for the management of ecological resources. The REA provides an assessment of baseline ecological conditions, an evaluation of current risks from drivers of ecosystem change (including energy development, fire, and invasive species), and a predictive capacity for evaluating future risks (including climate change). Additionally, the REA may be used for identifying priority areas for conservation or restoration and for assessing cumulative effects of multiple land uses. The Wyoming Basin REA will address Management Questions developed by the Bureau of Land Management and other agency partners for 8 major biomes and 19 species or species assemblages. The maps developed for addressing Management Questions will be integrated into overall maps of landscape-level ecological values and risks. The maps can be used to address the goals of the REA at a number of levels: for individual species, species assemblages, aquatic and terrestrial systems, and for the entire ecoregion. This allows flexibility in how the products of the REA are compiled to inform planning and management actions across a broad range of spatial scales.

Multi-objective reverse logistics model for integrated computer waste management.

PubMed

Ahluwalia, Poonam Khanijo; Nema, Arvind K

2006-12-01

This study aimed to address the issues involved in the planning and design of a computer waste management system in an integrated manner. A decision-support tool is presented for selecting an optimum configuration of computer waste management facilities (segregation, storage, treatment/processing, reuse/recycle and disposal) and allocation of waste to these facilities. The model is based on an integer linear programming method with the objectives of minimizing environmental risk as well as cost. The issue of uncertainty in the estimated waste quantities from multiple sources is addressed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. An illustrated example of computer waste management in Delhi, India is presented to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed model and to study tradeoffs between cost and risk. The results of the example problem show that it is possible to reduce the environmental risk significantly by a marginal increase in the available cost. The proposed model can serve as a powerful tool to address the environmental problems associated with exponentially growing quantities of computer waste which are presently being managed using rudimentary methods of reuse, recovery and disposal by various small-scale vendors.

Decreasing NICU Costs in the managed care arena: the positive impact of collaborative high-risk OB and NICU disease management programs.

PubMed

Diehl-Svrjcek, Beth C; Richardson, Regina

2005-01-01

Costs for preterm and critically ill neonates in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) can be astronomical related to the number of inpatient day's accrued and professional ancillary fees. NICU births are often associated with maternal risk factors such as previous preterm or low birth weight delivery, maternal infections, chronic disease states, substance abuse and/or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Accordingly, Johns Hopkins HealthCare provides a disease management approach for the prevention of NICU births through "Partners With Mom." This maternity disease management program identifies pregnant women that could potentially generate high-dollar claims. The mission of the program is to reduce hospital/NICU admissions related to pregnancy complications and improve maternal/neonatal outcomes. If an NICU birth does occur, multiple avenues are pursued to control costs. By working in concert with Partners With Mom, the NICU Disease Management Program utilizes a multifaceted approach by tracking maternal risk factors, optimizing levels of required inpatient neonatal care and pursuing other avenues of revenue enhancement.

Risk management in a large-scale CO2 geosequestration pilot project, Illinois, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hnottavange-Telleen, K.; Chabora, E.; Finley, R.J.; Greenberg, S.E.; Marsteller, S.

2011-01-01

Like most large-scale infrastructure projects, carbon dioxide (CO 2) geological sequestration (GS) projects have multiple success criteria and multiple stakeholders. In this context "risk evaluation" encompasses multiple scales. Yet a risk management program aims to maximize the chance of project success by assessing, monitoring, minimizing all risks in a consistent framework. The 150,000-km2 Illinois Basin underlies much of the state of Illinois, USA, and parts of adjacent Kentucky and Indiana. Its potential for CO2 storage is first-rate among basins in North America, an impression that has been strengthened by early testing of the injection well of the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium's (MGSC's) Phase III large scale demonstration project, the Illinois Basin - Decatur Project (IBDP). The IBDP, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), represents a key trial of GS technologies and project-management techniques. Though risks are specific to each site and project, IBDP risk management methodologies provide valuable experience for future GS projects. IBDP views risk as the potential for negative impact to any of these five values: health and safety, environment, financial, advancing the viability and public acceptability of a GS industry, and research. Research goals include monitoring one million metric tonnes of injected CO2 in the subsurface. Risk management responds to the ways in which any values are at risk: for example, monitoring is designed to reduce uncertainties in parameter values that are important for research and system control, and is also designed to provide public assurance. Identified risks are the primary basis for risk-reduction measures: risks linked to uncertainty in geologic parameters guide further characterization work and guide simulations applied to performance evaluation. Formally, industry defines risk (more precisely risk criticality) as the product L*S, the Likelihood multiplied by the Severity of negative impact. L and S are each evaluated on five-point scales, yielding a theoretical spread in risk values of 1 through 25. So defined, these judgment-based values are categorical and ordinal - they do not represent physically measurable quantities, but are nonetheless useful for comparison and therefore decision support. The "risk entities" first evaluated are FEPs - conceptual Features, Events, and Processes based on the list published by Quintessa Ltd. After concrete scenarios are generated based on selected FEPs, scenarios become the critical entities whose associated risks are evaluated and tracked. In IBDP workshops, L and S values for 123 FEPs were generated through expert elicitation. About 30 experts in the project or in GS in general were assigned among six facilitated working groups, and each group was charged to envision risks within a sphere of project operations. Working groups covered FEPs with strong spatial characteristics - such as those related to the injection wellbore and simulated plume footprint - and "nonspatial" FEPs related to finance, regulations, legal, and stakeholder issues. Within these working groups, experts shared information, examined assumptions, refined and extended the FEP list, calibrated responses, and provided initial L and S values by consensus. Individual rankings were collected in a follow-up process via emailed spreadsheets. For each of L and S, three values were collected: Lower Bound, Best Guess, and Upper Bound. The Lower-Upper Bound ranges and the spreads among experts can be interpreted to yield rough confidence measures. Based on experts' responses, FEPs were ranked in terms of their L*S risk levels. FEP rankings were determined from individual (not consensus or averaged) results, thus no high-risk responses were damped out. The higher-risk FEPs were used to generate one or more concrete, well defined risk-bearing scenarios for each FEP. Any FEP scored by any expert as having associated risk of

Reputation and its risks.

PubMed

Eccles, Robert G; Newquist, Scott C; Schatz, Roland

2007-02-01

Regulators, industry groups, consultants, and individual companies have developed elaborate guidelines over the years for assessing and managing risks in a wide range of areas, from commodity prices to natural disasters. Yet they have all but ignored reputational risk, mostly because they aren't sure how to define or measure it. That's a big problem, say the authors. Because so much market value comes from hard-to-assess intangible assets like brand equity and intellectual capital, organizations are especially vulnerable to anything that damages their reputations. Moreover, companies with strong positive reputations attract better talent and are perceived as providing more value in their products and services, which often allows them to charge a premium. Their customers are more loyal and buy broader ranges of products and services. Since the market believes that such companies will deliver sustained earnings and future growth, they have higher price-earnings multiples and market values and lower costs of capital. Most companies, however, do an inadequate job of managing their reputations in general and the risks to their reputations in particular. They tend to focus their energies on handling the threats to their reputations that have already surfaced. That is not risk management; it is crisis management--a reactive approach aimed at limiting the damage. The authors provide a framework for actively managing reputational risk. They introduce three factors (the reputation-reality gap, changing beliefs and expectations, and weak internal coordination) that affect the level of such risks and then explore several ways to sufficiently quantify and control those factors. The process outlined in this article will help managers do a better job of assessing existing and potential threats to their companies' reputations and deciding whether to accept a particular risk or take actions to avoid or mitigate it.

Linking better shiftwork arrangements with safety and health management systems.

PubMed

Kogi, Kazutaka

2004-12-01

Various support measures useful for promoting joint change approaches to the improvement of both shiftworking arrangements and safety and health management systems were reviewed. A particular focus was placed on enterprise-level risk reduction measures linking working hours and management systems. Voluntary industry-based guidelines on night and shift work for department stores and the chemical, automobile and electrical equipment industries were examined. Survey results that had led to the compilation of practicable measures to be included in these guidelines were also examined. The common support measures were then compared with ergonomic checkpoints for plant maintenance work involving irregular nightshifts. On the basis of this analysis, a new night and shift work checklist was designed. Both the guidelines and the plant maintenance work checkpoints were found to commonly cover multiple issues including work schedules and various job-related risks. This close link between shiftwork arrangements and risk management was important as shiftworkers in these industries considered teamwork and welfare services to be essential for managing risks associated with night and shift work. Four areas found suitable for participatory improvement by managers and workers were work schedules, ergonomic work tasks, work environment and training. The checklist designed to facilitate participatory change processes covered all these areas. The checklist developed to describe feasible workplace actions was suitable for integration with comprehensive safety and health management systems and offered valuable opportunities for improving working time arrangements and job content together.

Risk Governance of Multiple Natural Hazards: Centralized versus Decentralized Approach in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komendantova, Nadejda; Scolobig, Anna; Vinchon, Charlotte

2014-05-01

The multi-risk approach is a relatively new field and its definition includes the need to consider multiple hazards and vulnerabilities in their interdependency (Selva, 2013) and the current multi-hazards disasters, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, tsunami and nuclear catastrophe, showed the need for a multi-risk approach in hazard mitigation and management. Our knowledge about multi-risk assessment, including studies from different scientific disciplines and developed assessment tools, is constantly growing (White et al., 2001). However, the link between scientific knowledge, its implementation and the results in terms of improved governance and decision-making have gained significantly less attention (IRGC, 2005; Kappes et al., 2012), even though the interest to risk governance, in general, has increased significantly during the last years (Verweiy and Thompson, 2006). Therefore, the key research question is how risk assessment is implemented and what is the potential for the implementation of a multi-risk approach in different governance systems across Europe. More precisely, how do the characteristics of risk governance, such as the degree of centralization versus decentralization, influence the implementation of a multi-risk approach. The methodology of this research includes comparative case study analysis of top-down and bottom-up interactions in governance in the city of Naples, (Italy), where the institutional landscape is marked by significant autonomy of Italian regions in decision-making processes for assessing the majority of natural risks, excluding volcanic, and in Guadeloupe, French West Indies, an overseas department of France, where the decision-making process is marked by greater centralization in decision making associated with a well established state governance within regions, delegated to the prefect and decentralised services of central ministries. The research design included documentary analysis and extensive empirical work involving policy makers, private sector actors and practitioners in risk and emergency management. This work was informed by 36 semi-structured interviews, three workshops with over seventy participants from eleven different countries, feedback from questionnaires and focus group discussions (Scolobig et al., 2013). The results show that both governance systems have their own strengths and weaknesses (Komendantova et al., 2013). Elements of the centralized multi-risk governance system could lead to improvements in interagency communication and the creation of an inter-agency environment, where the different departments at the national level can exchange information, identify the communities that are most exposed to multiple risks and set priorities, while providing consistent information about and responses to multi-risk to the relevant stakeholders at the local level. A decentralised multi-risk governance system by contrast can instead favour the creation of local multi-risk commissions to conduct discussions between experts in meteorological, geological and technological risks and practitioners, to elaborate risk and hazard maps, and to develop local capacities which would include educational and training activities. Both governance systems suffer from common deficiencies, the most important being the frequent lack of capacities at the local level, especially financial, but sometimes also technical and institutional ones, as the responsibilities for disaster risk management are often transferred from the national to local levels without sufficient resources for implementation of programs on risk management (UNISDR, 2013). The difficulty in balancing available resources between short-term and medium-term priorities often complicates the issue. Our recommendations are that the implementation of multi-risk approach can be facilitated through knowledge exchange and dialogue between different disciplinary communities, such as geological and meteorological, and between the natural and social sciences. The implementation of a multi-risk approach can be strengthened through the creation of multi-risk platforms and multi-risk commissions, which can liaise between risk management experts and local communities and to unify numerous actions on natural hazard management. However, the multi-risk approach cannot be a subsidiary to a single risk approach, and both have to be pursued. References: IRGC. (2011). Concept note: Improving the management of emerging risks: Risks from new technologies, system interactions, and unforeseen or changing circumstances. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC), Geneva. Kappes, M. S., Keiler, M., Elverfeldt, von K., & Glade, T, (2012). Challenges of analyzing multi-hazard risk: A review. Natural Hazards, 64(2), 1925-1958. doi: 10.1007/s11069-012-0294-2. Komendantova N, Scolobig A, Vinchon C (2013). Multi-risk approach in centralized and decentralized risk governance systems: Case studies of Naples, Italy and Guadeloupe, France. International Relations and Diplomacy, 1(3):224-239 (December 2013) Scolobig, A., Vichon, C., Komendantova, N., Bengoubou-Valerius, M., & Patt, A. (2013). Social and institutional barriers to effective multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-making governance. D6.3 MATRIX project. Selva, J. (2013). Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks. Natural Hazards, 67(2),701-722. UNISDR. (2013). Implementing the HYOGO framework for action in Europe: Regional synthesis report 2011-2013. Verweij, M., & Thompson, M. (Eds.). (2006). Clumsy solutions for a complex world: Governance, politics, and plural perceptions. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. White, G., Kates, R., & Burton, I. (2001). Knowing better and losing even more: the use of knowledge in hazards management. Environmental Hazards, 3, 81-92.

Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective.

PubMed

Gaydos, Joseph K; Thixton, Sofie; Donatuto, Jamie

2015-01-01

Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA), British Columbia (Canada), and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures) associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures) including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as likely, possible or unlikely. Impacts are likely to occur in 23 to 28% of the possible pressure/species scenarios and are possible in another 15 to 28% additional pressure/species interactions. While it is not clear which impacts will be additive, synergistic, or potentially antagonistic, studies that manipulate multiple stressors in marine ecosystems suggest that threats associated with these six projects are likely to have an overall additive or even synergistic interaction and therefore impact species of major cultural importance to the Coast Salish, an important concept that would be lost by merely evaluating each project independently. Failure to address multiple impacts will affect the Coast Salish and the 7 million other people that also depend on this ecosystem. These findings show the value of evaluating multiple threats, and ultimately conducting risk assessments at the scale of ecosystems and highlight the serious need for managers of multinational ecosystems to actively collaborate on evaluating threats, assessing risk, and managing resources.

Evaluating Threats in Multinational Marine Ecosystems: A Coast Salish First Nations and Tribal Perspective

PubMed Central

Gaydos, Joseph K.; Thixton, Sofie; Donatuto, Jamie

2015-01-01

Despite the merit of managing natural resources on the scale of ecosystems, evaluating threats and managing risk in ecosystems that span multiple countries or jurisdictions can be challenging. This requires each government involved to consider actions in concert with actions being taken in other countries by co-managing entities. Multiple proposed fossil fuel-related and port development projects in the Salish Sea, a 16,925 km2 inland sea shared by Washington State (USA), British Columbia (Canada), and Indigenous Coast Salish governments, have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic and negatively impact natural resources. There is no legal mandate or management mechanism requiring a comprehensive review of the potential cumulative impacts of these development activities throughout the Salish Sea and across the international border. This project identifies ongoing and proposed energy-related development projects that will increase marine vessel traffic in the Salish Sea and evaluates the threats each project poses to natural resources important to the Coast Salish. While recognizing that Coast Salish traditions identify all species as important and connected, we used expert elicitation to identify 50 species upon which we could evaluate impact. These species were chosen because Coast Salish depend upon them heavily for harvest revenue or as a staple food source, they were particularly culturally or spiritually significant, or they were historically part of Coast Salish lifeways. We identified six development projects, each of which had three potential impacts (pressures) associated with increased marine vessel traffic: oil spill, vessel noise and vessel strike. Projects varied in their potential for localized impacts (pressures) including shoreline development, harbor oil spill, pipeline spill, coal dust accumulation and nearshore LNG explosion. Based on available published data, impact for each pressure/species interaction was rated as likely, possible or unlikely. Impacts are likely to occur in 23 to 28% of the possible pressure/species scenarios and are possible in another 15 to 28% additional pressure/species interactions. While it is not clear which impacts will be additive, synergistic, or potentially antagonistic, studies that manipulate multiple stressors in marine ecosystems suggest that threats associated with these six projects are likely to have an overall additive or even synergistic interaction and therefore impact species of major cultural importance to the Coast Salish, an important concept that would be lost by merely evaluating each project independently. Failure to address multiple impacts will affect the Coast Salish and the 7 million other people that also depend on this ecosystem. These findings show the value of evaluating multiple threats, and ultimately conducting risk assessments at the scale of ecosystems and highlight the serious need for managers of multinational ecosystems to actively collaborate on evaluating threats, assessing risk, and managing resources. PMID:26691860

Preparing Safety Cases for Operating Outside Prescriptive Fatigue Risk Management Regulations.

PubMed

Gander, Philippa; Mangie, Jim; Wu, Lora; van den Berg, Margo; Signal, Leigh; Phillips, Adrienne

2017-07-01

Transport operators seeking to operate outside prescriptive fatigue management regulations are typically required to present a safety case justifying how they will manage the associated risk. This paper details a method for constructing a successful safety case. The method includes four elements: 1) scope (prescriptive rules and operations affected); 2) risk assessment; 3) risk mitigation strategies; and 4) monitoring ongoing risk. A successful safety case illustrates this method. It enables landing pilots in 3-pilot crews to choose the second or third in-flight rest break, rather than the regulatory requirement to take the third break. Scope was defined using a month of scheduled flights that would be covered (N = 4151). These were analyzed in the risk assessment using existing literature on factors affecting fatigue to estimate the maximum time awake at top of descent and sleep opportunities in each break. Additionally, limited data collected before the new regulations showed that pilots flying at landing chose the third break on only 6% of flights. A prospective survey comparing subjective reports (N = 280) of sleep in the second vs. third break and fatigue and sleepiness ratings at top of descent confirmed that the third break is not consistently superior. The safety case also summarized established systems for fatigue monitoring, risk assessment and hazard identification, and multiple fatigue mitigation strategies that are in place. Other successful safety cases have used this method. The evidence required depends on the expected level of risk and should evolve as experience with fatigue risk management systems builds.Gander P, Mangie J, Wu L, van den Berg M, Signal L, Phillips A. Preparing safety cases for operating outside prescriptive fatigue risk management regulations. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(7):688-696.

Acceptable Risk Analysis for Abrupt Environmental Pollution Accidents in Zhangjiakou City, China

PubMed Central

Du, Xi; Zhang, Zhijiao; Dong, Lei; Liu, Jing; Borthwick, Alistair G. L.; Liu, Renzhi

2017-01-01

Abrupt environmental pollution accidents cause considerable damage worldwide to the ecological environment, human health, and property. The concept of acceptable risk aims to answer whether or not a given environmental pollution risk exceeds a societally determined criterion. This paper presents a case study on acceptable environmental pollution risk conducted through a questionnaire survey carried out between August and October 2014 in five representative districts and two counties of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China. Here, environmental risk primarily arises from accidental water pollution, accidental air pollution, and tailings dam failure. Based on 870 valid questionnaires, demographic and regional differences in public attitudes towards abrupt environmental pollution risks were analyzed, and risk acceptance impact factors determined. The results showed females, people between 21–40 years of age, people with higher levels of education, public servants, and people with higher income had lower risk tolerance. People with lower perceived risk, low-level risk knowledge, high-level familiarity and satisfaction with environmental management, and without experience of environmental accidents had higher risk tolerance. Multiple logistic regression analysis indicated that public satisfaction with environmental management was the most significant factor in risk acceptance, followed by perceived risk of abrupt air pollution, occupation, perceived risk of tailings dam failure, and sex. These findings should be helpful to local decision-makers concerned with environmental risk management (e.g., selecting target groups for effective risk communication) in the context of abrupt environmental accidents. PMID:28425956

Report: Controls Needed to Track Changes to EPA’s Compass Financials Data

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #17-P-0205, May 8, 2017. This report is an EPA OIG Management Alert. There is a risk that multiple air-monitoring agencies are not always implementing the EPA’s recommended quality assurance practices for ozone data.

Effects of mixtures of dicamba and glyphosate on nontarget plants

EPA Science Inventory

New technologies are being developed using mixtures of herbicides to manage a broader variety of weeds in multiple herbicide resistant crops such as soybean and cotton. As part of its regulation of pesticides, the US Environmental Protection Agency considers environmental risks,...

Modern Initial Management of Severe Limbs Trauma in War Surgery: Orthopaedic Damage Control

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

avoid fat embolism , allow an optimal nursing and medical evacuation without any secondary functional consequences [3]. 2.2.1 Indications: The...decrease the risk of fat embolism . Modern Initial Management of Severe Limbs Trauma in War Surgery: “Orthopaedic Damage Control” RTO-MP-HFM-182 17...injuries. Orthopaedic Imperious: Multiple open shaft fractures with blood loss, complex epiphysal fractures requiring a long difficult surgical bloody

Wildfire Decision Making Under Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, M.

2013-12-01

Decisions relating to wildfire management are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, and are made by a broad range of individuals, across a multitude of environmental and socioeconomic contexts. In this presentation I will review progress towards identification and characterization of uncertainties and how this information can support wildfire decision-making. First, I will review a typology of uncertainties common to wildfire management, highlighting some of the more salient sources of uncertainty and how they present challenges to assessing wildfire risk. This discussion will cover the expanding role of burn probability modeling, approaches for characterizing fire effects, and the role of multi-criteria decision analysis, and will provide illustrative examples of integrated wildfire risk assessment across a variety of planning scales. Second, I will describe a related uncertainty typology that focuses on the human dimensions of wildfire management, specifically addressing how social, psychological, and institutional factors may impair cost-effective risk mitigation. This discussion will encompass decision processes before, during, and after fire events, with a specific focus on active management of complex wildfire incidents. An improved ability to characterize uncertainties faced in wildfire management could lead to improved delivery of decision support, targeted communication strategies, and ultimately to improved wildfire management outcomes.

A method to determine the protection zone of chemical industrial park considering air quality, health risk and environmental risk: a case study.

PubMed

Shi, Jingang; Zhang, Mingbo; Li, Dong; Liu, Jia

2018-04-01

In China, chemical enterprises are required to cluster into a large number of chemical industrial parks (CIPs), which increase risks and threats to the environment and human being's health due to aggregation of the complicated chemical process and huge unit scale. Setting a scientific and reasonable protection zone around CIP is a very efficient way to protect surrounding people's health. A method was designed to determine the comprehensive protection zone of CIP, taking into account multiple factors: air quality, health risk and environmental risk. By establishing a comprehensive and multi-levels index system, the protection zone and the corresponding environmental risk management countermeasures can be proposed hierarchically, which are very important to the development and environmental risk management of CIP. A CIP located in coastal area of Shandong Province was studied, and it is turned out that the method to determine the protection zone of chemical industrial park considering air quality, health risk and environmental risk has great advantages compared with other methods.

Evaluating Partnerships to Enhance Disaster Risk Management using Multi-Criteria Analysis: An Application at the Pan-European Level

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Lorant, Anna

2018-01-01

Disaster risk is increasingly recognized as a major development challenge. Recent calls emphasize the need to proactively engage in disaster risk reduction, as well as to establish new partnerships between private and public sector entities in order to decrease current and future risks. Very often such potential partnerships have to meet different objectives reflecting on the priorities of stakeholders involved. Consequently, potential partnerships need to be assessed on multiple criteria to determine weakest links and greatest threats in collaboration. This paper takes a supranational multi-sector partnership perspective, and considers possible ways to enhance disaster risk management in the European Union by better coordination between the European Union Solidarity Fund, risk reduction efforts, and insurance mechanisms. Based on flood risk estimates we employ a risk-layer approach to determine set of options for new partnerships and test them in a high-level workshop via a novel cardinal ranking based multi-criteria approach. Whilst transformative changes receive good overall scores, we also find that the incorporation of risk into budget planning is an essential condition for successful partnerships.

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

2014-01-01

Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

The behavior of multiple independent managers and ecological traits interact to determine prevalence of weeds.

PubMed

Coutts, Shaun R; Yokomizo, Hiroyuki; Buckley, Yvonne M

2013-04-01

Management of damaging invasive plants is often undertaken by multiple decision makers, each managing only a small part of the invader's population. As weeds can move between properties and re-infest eradicated sites from unmanaged sources, the dynamics of multiple decision makers plays a significant role in weed prevalence and invasion risk at the landscape scale. We used a spatially explicit agent-based simulation to determine how individual agent behavior, in concert with weed population ecology, determined weed prevalence. We compared two invasive grass species that differ in ecology, control methods, and costs: Nassella trichotoma (serrated tussock) and Eragrostis curvula (African love grass). The way decision makers reacted to the benefit of management had a large effect on the extent of a weed. If benefits of weed control outweighed the costs, and either net benefit was very large or all agents were very sensitive to net benefits, then agents tended to act synchronously, reducing the pool of infested agents available to spread the weed. As N. trichotoma was more damaging than E. curvula and had more effective control methods, agents chose to manage it more often, which resulted in lower prevalence of N. trichotoma. A relatively low number of agents who were intrinsically less motivated to control weeds led to increased prevalence of both species. This was particularly apparent when long-distance dispersal meant each infested agent increased the invasion risk for a large portion of the landscape. In this case, a small proportion of land mangers reluctant to control, regardless of costs and benefits, could lead to the whole landscape being infested, even when local control stopped new infestations. Social pressure was important, but only if it was independent of weed prevalence, suggesting that early access to information, and incentives to act on that information, may be crucial in stopping a weed from infesting large areas. The response of our model to both behavioral and ecological parameters was highly nonlinear. This implies that the outcomes of weed management programs that deal with multiple land mangers could be highly variable in both space and through time.

Investigation of the Feasibility of an Intervention to Manage Fall Risk in Wheeled Mobility Device Users with Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Rice, Laura A; Isaacs, Zadok; Ousley, Cherita; Sosnoff, Jacob

2018-01-01

Falls are a common concern for wheeled mobility device users with multiple sclerosis (MS); however, no evidence-based fall prevention programs have been developed to meet the specific needs of the population. We examine the preliminary feasibility of a fall management intervention in wheeled mobility device users with MS. Study participants were exposed to an intervention program targeting risk factors for falls, including transfer skills and seated postural control. The feasibility of the program was evaluated by assessing participant perspectives, cost, recruitment rates, study adherence, participant retention, safety, and the ability to collect primary and secondary outcomes, including fall frequency, concerns about falling, transfer quality, and seated postural control. 16 wheeled mobility device users completed the program, which was found to be feasible and was positively evaluated by participants. No adverse events were experienced. After exposure to the intervention, fall frequency significantly decreased (P < .001) and transfer quality (P = .001) and seated postural control (P = .002) significantly improved. No significant differences were found regarding concerns about falling (P = .728). This study examined the feasibility of an intervention program to manage fall risk in wheeled mobility device users with MS. The program was found to be feasible, and preliminary results showed the intervention to be effective in decreasing fall frequency. Additional testing is needed to further examine the efficacy and long-term impact of the intervention.

Infectious risk for suicide bomber attack victims: management of penetrative wounds in French Army personnel.

PubMed

de l'Escalopier, Nicolas; Mathieu, Laurent; Valade, Guillaume; Ficko, Cécile; Rigal, Sylvain

2016-05-01

In suicide bomber attacks (SBAs), the explosive forces may disperse fragments from the body of the bomber to which the device is attached. This biologic material can cause physical injury to bystanders and may represent a source of severe infectious diseases. Two French soldiers, victims of an SBA in Africa, were managed in the Percy Military Teaching Hospital. They sustained multiple injuries, including some caused by bony fragments converted into projectiles by the explosion. One patient had multiple superficial wounds managed conservatively. The other was treated surgically by serial debridement with removal of a bony piece related to the suicide bomber. The decision not to prescribe antiretroviral therapy was determined after discussion with infectious disease specialists. Blood tests for HIV, HCV and HBV were taken at months zero, three and six; all were negative. In the French Military Health Service, guidelines are based on evaluation of the viral status of the bomber and on the regional HIV prevalence breakpoint. There is no indication for HCV post-exposition prophylaxis (PEP). Accessible human foreign bodies related to an SBA should be removed as soon as possible, in association with antibiotic medication and a possible HIV PEP. These infectious risks have been discussed in some military and law enforcement literature. It should be a risk-based decision supported by medical intelligence.

Placenta accreta spectrum: accreta, increta, and percreta.

PubMed

Silver, Robert M; Barbour, Kelli D

2015-06-01

Placenta accreta can lead to hemorrhage, resulting in hysterectomy, blood transfusion, multiple organ failure, and death. Accreta has been increasing steadily in incidence owing to an increase in the cesarean delivery rate. Major risk factors are placenta previa in women with prior cesarean deliveries. Obstetric ultrasonography can be used to diagnose placenta accreta antenatally, which allows for scheduled delivery in a multidisciplinary center of excellence for accreta. Controversies exist regarding optimal management, including optimal timing of delivery, surgical approach, use of adjunctive measures, and conservative (uterine-sparing) therapy. We review the definition, risk factors, diagnosis, management, and controversies regarding placenta accreta. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nutrition Interventions in Chronic Kidney Disease.

PubMed

Anderson, Cheryl A M; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Rifkin, Dena E

2016-11-01

Dietary modification is recommended in the management of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Individuals with CKD often have multiple comorbidities, such as high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease, for which dietary modification is also recommended. As CKD progresses, nutrition plays an important role in mitigating risk for cardiovascular disease and decline in kidney function. The objectives of nutrition interventions in CKD include management of risk factors, ensuring optimal nutritional status throughout all stages of CKD, preventing buildup of toxic metabolic products, and avoiding complications of CKD. Recommended dietary changes should be feasible, sustainable, and suited for patients' food preferences and clinical needs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Too attractive: the growing problem of magnet ingestions in children.

PubMed

Brown, Julie C; Otjen, Jeffrey P; Drugas, George T

2013-11-01

Small, powerful magnets are increasingly available in toys and other products and pose a health risk. Small spherical neodymium magnets marketed since 2008 are of particular concern. The objective of this study was to determine the incidence, characteristics, and management of single and multiple-magnet ingestions over time. Magnet ingestion cases at a tertiary children's hospital were identified using radiology reports from June 2002 to December 2012. Cases were verified by chart and imaging review. Relative risk regressions were used to determine changes in the incidence of ingestions and interventions over time. Of 56 cases of magnet ingestion, 98% occurred in 2006 or later, and 57% involved multiple magnets. Median age was 8 years (range, 0-18 years). Overall, 21% of single and 88% of multiple ingestions had 2 or more imaging series obtained, whereas no single and 56.3% of multiple ingestions required intervention (25.0% endoscopy, 18.8% surgery, 12.5% both). Magnet ingestions increased in 2010 to 2012 compared with 2007 to 2009 (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-3.0). Small, spherical magnets likely from magnet sets comprised 27% of ingestions, all ingested 2010 or later: 86% involved multiple magnets, 50% of which required intervention. Excluding these cases, ingestions of other magnets did not increase in 2010 to 2012 compared with 2007 to 2009 (relative risk, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.6-1.4). The incidence of pediatric magnet ingestions and subsequent interventions has increased over time. Multiple-magnet ingestions result in high utilization of radiological imaging and surgical interventions. Recent increases parallel the increased availability of small, spherical magnet sets. Young and at-risk children should not have access to these and other small magnets. Improved regulation and magnet safety standards are needed.

Transformation and Resilience on Urban Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pelling, M.; Agboola, J.; Birkmann, J.; Grimmond, S. B.; Garschagen, M.; Link, H. D.; Narayanan, P.; Nishi, M.; Ramachandran, R., VI; Solecki, W.; Yamamuro, M.; Welle, T.; Ramachandran, P.; Ajibade, I.

2016-12-01

Large coastal cities are at the forefront of efforts to manage vulnerability and build resilience in the face of multiple, interlinked threats. This paper presents results from the Belmont Forum project Transformation and Resilience on Urban Coasts (TRUC). TRUC aims to shift academic and policy discussion from an assessment of resilience options to an understanding of how cities can transition from one mode of resilience planning to another. In particular TRUC questions the relationship between dominant development trajectories and structures and risk management. Should risk management be deployed to support, adjust or fundamentally change dominant development trajectories and its attendant distributional and procedural justice outcomes? TRUC deployed an interdisciplinary approach bringing together scenario workshops, integrated biophysical and vulnerability modelling, expert and household interviews to open spaces for stakeholders to reflect on existing risk management-development relationships, their determinants, preferences for transition to new states and barriers and opportunities for transition. Results are presented for five global megacities: Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York and Tokyo. Contemporary risk management for these global megacities is found to be rooted in historical events with policy innovation following on from extreme events rather than anticipating future risk. Emergent coastal hazards, most importantly heatwave, are consistently underemphasised in planning and technical capacity. Professionals express a desire to move risk management from a reactive mode aimed at protecting development gains towards a more proactive position and one that can embrace integrated development issues. Barriers to this transition include top-down and centralised planning that makes innovation difficult and slow and variable relations between science and policy communities that make it difficult for high level planners to access novel science opinion.

What Is the Prevalence of Symptomatic Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome in Chronic Spinal Pain Patients? An Assessment of the Correlation of OSAS with Chronic Opioid Therapy, Obesity, and Smoking.

PubMed

Pampati, Sanjana; Manchikanti, Laxmaiah

2016-05-01

In modern medicine, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) is a commonly described sleep disorder with airway obstruction, disrupted sleep, and excessive daytime sleepiness. Since its description in 1976 by Guilleminault et al, numerous epidemiologic studies and systematic reviews, with multiple comorbidities related to cardiovascular sequelae, altered cognitive function, and multiple other potential complications have been described. Multiple risk factors have been identified included obesity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and other factors. Chronic pain and chronic opioid therapy also have been described to contribute to a large proportion of patients with OSAS. Chronic pain, obesity, smoking, and chronic opioid therapy are often found together, yet there is a paucity of literature describing OSAS in chronic pain patients. To assess the prevalence of symptomatic OSAS in chronic spinal pain patients receiving chronic opioid therapy and determine the association of OSAS with multiple risk factors and comorbidities. A retrospective assessment of patients who attend a single interventional pain management practice from January 1, 2010to December 31, 2014. A private interventional pain management practice in the United States. The data were collected from 4,036 consecutive patients presenting for assessment to a pain management center from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2014. All assessments were comprehensive and performed by 2 physicians. The comprehensive assessment included a complete history, a physical examination, and a review of records. The prevalence of OSAS in patients with chronic spinal pain was 13.8%. The results showed a higher prevalence in males compared to females (15.1% versus 12.8%), a higher prevalence in those aged 45 or older compared to those 25-45 years and those 18-25 years (16.3% versus 10.7% or 2.5%), higher prevalence in Hispanics and Asians compared to African Americans and whites (23.7% versus 16.2% versus 13.4%), higher prevalence in patients with combined back and neck pain compared to patients with thoracic pain only or back pain only (16.3% versus 8.2% to 11%). Prevalence also varied by body mass index (BMI): 32.4% in morbidly obese patients, 20.3% in severely obese patients, 15.7% in obese patients, 9.2% in those who were overweight, and only 5.7% in those with normal weight. A significant correlation with OSAS was also observed in patients smoking more than 40 pack years and multiple respiratory symptoms except for chronic bronchitis and multiple cardiovascular ailments. The retrospective nature of the assessment. This retrospective assessment of over 4,000 patients suffering from chronic pain and receiving chronic opioid therapy indicated a prevalence of sleep apnea syndrome as 13.8%. Multiple risk factors including obesity, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic sinus and nasal discharge, and multiple comorbidities including cardiovascular and related ailments have been identified. Obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, chronic pain, chronic spinal pain, chronic opioid therapy, obesity, smoking, cardiovascular risk factors, pulmonary risk factors.

Passive sampling methods for contaminated sediments: Risk assessment and management

PubMed Central

Greenberg, Marc S; Chapman, Peter M; Allan, Ian J; Anderson, Kim A; Apitz, Sabine E; Beegan, Chris; Bridges, Todd S; Brown, Steve S; Cargill, John G; McCulloch, Megan C; Menzie, Charles A; Shine, James P; Parkerton, Thomas F

2014-01-01

This paper details how activity-based passive sampling methods (PSMs), which provide information on bioavailability in terms of freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree), can be used to better inform risk management decision making at multiple points in the process of assessing and managing contaminated sediment sites. PSMs can increase certainty in site investigation and management, because Cfree is a better predictor of bioavailability than total bulk sediment concentration (Ctotal) for 4 key endpoints included in conceptual site models (benthic organism toxicity, bioaccumulation, sediment flux, and water column exposures). The use of passive sampling devices (PSDs) presents challenges with respect to representative sampling for estimating average concentrations and other metrics relevant for exposure and risk assessment. These challenges can be addressed by designing studies that account for sources of variation associated with PSMs and considering appropriate spatial scales to meet study objectives. Possible applications of PSMs include: quantifying spatial and temporal trends in bioavailable contaminants, identifying and evaluating contaminant source contributions, calibrating site-specific models, and, improving weight-of-evidence based decision frameworks. PSM data can be used to assist in delineating sediment management zones based on likelihood of exposure effects, monitor remedy effectiveness, and, evaluate risk reduction after sediment treatment, disposal, or beneficial reuse after management actions. Examples are provided illustrating why PSMs and freely dissolved contaminant concentrations (Cfree) should be incorporated into contaminated sediment investigations and study designs to better focus on and understand contaminant bioavailability, more accurately estimate exposure to sediment-associated contaminants, and better inform risk management decisions. Research and communication needs for encouraging broader use are discussed. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2014;10:224–236. © 2014 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of SETAC. PMID:24343931

[Ecological risk assessment and its management of Bailongjiang watershed, southern Gansu based on landscape pattern].

PubMed

Gong, Jie; Zhao, Cai-Xia; Xie, Yu-Chu; Gao, Yan-Jing

2014-07-01

Watershed ecological risk assessment is an important research subject of watershed ecological protection and environmental management. Research on the ecological risk focuses on addressing the influence of human activities and its spatial variation at watershed scale is vital to policy-making to control the impact of human activity and protocols for sustainable economic and societal development. A comprehensive ecological environment index, incorporating a landscape index and an assessment of ecological vulnerability, was put forward to assess the spatio-temporal characteristics of ecological risk of the Bailongjiang watershed, southern Gansu Province, Northwest China. Using ArcGIS and Fragstats software and a land use map of 2010, an ecological risk map was obtained through spatial sampling and disjunctive Kriging interpolation. The results indicated that there were some obvious spatial differences of ecological risk levels in the watershed. The ecological risk level of the north and northwest of the Bailongjiang was higher than that of the western and southern extremities of the watershed. Ecological risk index (ERI) of Wudu and Tanchang was higher than that of Wenxian and Diebu. Some measures for ecological risk management were put forward on the basis of ERI of Bailongjiang watershed. To strengthen the integrated management of human activities and land use in the watershed, to carry out the vegetation restoration and ecological reconstruction, and to reduce the ecological risks and hazards of irrational human disturbance, are vital to the realization 'multiple-win' of the economic, social and ecological protection and for the sustainable development in the hilly area in southern Gansu.

A systems approach to risk reduction of transportation infrastructure networks subject to multiple hazards : final report, December 31, 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-12-31

Integrity, robustness, reliability, and resiliency of infrastructure networks are vital to the economy, : security and well-being of any country. Faced with threats caused by natural and man-made hazards, : transportation infrastructure network manag...

Managing Stress for At-Risk Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spiegel, Ellen J.

2017-01-01

The BRIDGE Alternative Middle School in Lowell, Massachusetts, serves students ages 12-16 who have exhibited behavioral problems in traditional school settings, including problems such as truancy, multiple suspensions, mental health issues, peer conflicts, family dysfunction, academic problems, and gang involvement. Students referred to BRIDGE are…

Future developments in health care performance management

PubMed Central

Crema, Maria; Verbano, Chiara

2013-01-01

This paper highlights the challenges of performance management in health care, wherein multiple different objectives have to be pursued. The literature suggests starting with quality performance, following the sand cone theory, but considering a multidimensional concept of health care quality. Moreover, new managerial approaches coming from an industrial context and adapted to health care, such as lean management and risk management, can contribute to improving quality performance. Therefore, the opportunity to analyze them arises from studying their overlaps and links in order to identify possible synergies and to investigate the opportunity to develop an integrated methodology enabling improved performance. PMID:24255600

Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, P.

2014-12-01

This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline from 2015 (CAN International 2014), and if policy makers are limited to the IPCC AR5 we recommend RCP2.6, with emissions declining by 2020.

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PubMed Central

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Managing the potential risks of using bacteria-laden water in mineral processing to protect freshwater.

PubMed

Liu, Wenying; Moran, Chris J; Vink, Sue

2013-06-18

The minerals industry is being driven to access multiple water sources and increase water reuse to minimize freshwater withdrawal. Bacteria-laden water, such as treated effluent, has been increasingly used as an alternative to freshwater for mineral processing, in particular flotation, where conditions are favorable for bacterial growth. However, the risk posed by bacteria to flotation efficiency is poorly understood. This could be a barrier to the ongoing use of this water source. This study tested the potential of a previously published risk-based approach as a management tool to both assist mine sites in quantifying the risk from bacteria, and finding system-wide cost-effective solutions for risk mitigation. The result shows that the solution of adjusting the flotation chemical regime could only partly control the risk. The second solution of using tailings as an absorbent was shown to be effective in the laboratory in reducing bacterial concentration and thus removing the threat to flotation recovery. The best solution is likely to combine internal and external approaches, that is, inside and outside processing plants. Findings in this study contribute possible methods applicable to managing the risk from water-borne bacteria to plant operations that choose to use bacteria-containing water, when attempting to minimize freshwater use, and avoiding the undesirable consequences of increasing its use.

Risk Tradeoffs in Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The Case of the U.S. Forest Service

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stern, Marc J.; Martin, Caysie A.; Predmore, S. Andrew; Morse, Wayde C.

2014-06-01

Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold smaller incremental decisions made by agency personnel directing the processes. Through interviews with decision makers, team leaders, and team members on five NEPA processes within the U.S. Forest Service, this study examines those incremental decisions. Risk, in particular external relationship risk, emerged as a dominant lens through which agency personnel weigh and make process-related decisions. We discuss the tradeoffs associated with agency actors' emphasis on this form of risk and their potential implications for adaptive ecosystem management and organizational performance.

Recent advances in the management of transient ischemic attacks

PubMed Central

Gomez, Camilo R.; Schneck, Michael J.; Biller, Jose

2017-01-01

Significant advances in our understanding of transient ischemic attack (TIA) have taken place since it was first recognized as a major risk factor for stroke during the late 1950's. Recently, numerous studies have consistently shown that patients who have experienced a TIA constitute a heterogeneous population, with multiple causative factors as well as an average 5–10% risk of suffering a stroke during the 30 days that follow the index event. These two attributes have driven the most important changes in the management of TIA patients over the last decade, with particular attention paid to effective stroke risk stratification, efficient and comprehensive diagnostic assessment, and a sound therapeutic approach, destined to reduce the risk of subsequent ischemic stroke. This review is an outline of these changes, including a discussion of their advantages and disadvantages, and references to how new trends are likely to influence the future care of these patients. PMID:29263784

Investigating Uncertainty and Sensitivity in Integrated, Multimedia Environmental Models: Tools for FRAMES-3MRA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Babendreier, Justin E.; Castleton, Karl J.

2005-08-01

Elucidating uncertainty and sensitivity structures in environmental models can be a difficult task, even for low-order, single-medium constructs driven by a unique set of site-specific data. Quantitative assessment of integrated, multimedia models that simulate hundreds of sites, spanning multiple geographical and ecological regions, will ultimately require a comparative approach using several techniques, coupled with sufficient computational power. The Framework for Risk Analysis in Multimedia Environmental Systems - Multimedia, Multipathway, and Multireceptor Risk Assessment (FRAMES-3MRA) is an important software model being developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency for use in risk assessment of hazardous waste management facilities. The 3MRAmore » modeling system includes a set of 17 science modules that collectively simulate release, fate and transport, exposure, and risk associated with hazardous contaminants disposed of in land-based waste management units (WMU) .« less

Risk as a Resource - A New Paradigm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gindorf, Thomas E.

1996-01-01

NASA must change dramatically because of the current United States federal budget climate. The American people and their elected officials have mandated a smaller, more efficient and effective government. For the past decade, NASA's budget had grown at or slightly above the rate of inflation. In that era, taking all steps to avoid the risk of failure was the rule. Spacecraft development was characterized by extensive analyses, numerous reviews, and multiple conservative tests. This methodology was consistent with the long available schedules for developing hardware and software for very large, billion dollar spacecraft. Those days are over. The time when every identifiable step was taken to avoid risk is being replaced by a new paradigm which manages risk in much the same way as other resources (schedule, performance, or dollars) are managed. While success is paramount to survival, it can no longer be bought with a large growing NASA budget.

From Zero to Integration in Eight Months, the Dawn Ground Data System Engineering Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubon, Lydia P.

2006-01-01

The Dawn GDS Team met the SC Sim integration challenge in eight months. The GDS System Engineering approach in response to the SC Simintegration challenge, focused on a set of key practices: decomposition of project request into manageable requirements; integration of multiple ground disciplines and experts into a focused team effort; risk management thru management of expectations; and aggregation of intermediate products into a final product. By maintaining a a system-level focus, the overall systems engineering process unified team GDS Team members with a common goal: the success of the ground system as a whole and not just the success of their individual expert contributions. Incorporation of Agile-type development efforts were aligned with a risk strategy based on team-oriented principles and expectations management, thus achieving a more stable baseline solution without compromising the integrity of the GDS design.

Risk management communication system between a local government and residents using several network systems and terminal devices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ohyama, Takashi; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Takei, Yuichiro; Maeda, Yuji

2009-05-01

Most of Japan's local governments utilize municipal disaster-management radio communications systems to communicate information on disasters or terrorism to residents. The national government is progressing in efforts toward digitalization by local governments of these systems, but only a small number (approx. 10%) have introduced such equipment due to its requiring large amounts of investment. On the other hand, many local governments are moving forward in installation of optical fiber networks for the purpose of eliminating the "digital divide." We herein propose a communication system as an alternative or supplement to municipal disaster-management radio communications systems, which utilizes municipal optical fiber networks, the internet and similar networks and terminals. The system utilizes the multiple existing networks and is capable of instantly distributing to all residents, and controlling, risk management information. We describe the system overview and the field trials conducted with a local government using this system.

Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA.

PubMed

Thompson, Matthew P; Scott, Joe; Helmbrecht, Don; Calkin, Dave E

2013-04-01

The financial, socioeconomic, and ecological impacts of wildfire continue to challenge federal land management agencies in the United States. In recent years, policymakers and managers have increasingly turned to the field of risk analysis to better manage wildfires and to mitigate losses to highly valued resources and assets (HVRAs). Assessing wildfire risk entails the interaction of multiple components, including integrating wildfire simulation outputs with geospatial identification of HVRAs and the characterization of fire effects to HVRAs. We present an integrated and systematic risk assessment framework that entails 3 primary analytical components: 1) stochastic wildfire simulation and burn probability modeling to characterize wildfire hazard, 2) expert-based modeling to characterize fire effects, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis to characterize preference structures across at-risk HVRAs. We demonstrate application of this framework for a wildfire risk assessment performed on the Little Belts Assessment Area within the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, United States. We devote particular attention to our approach to eliciting and encapsulating expert judgment, in which we: 1) adhered to a structured process for using expert judgment in ecological risk assessment, 2) used as our expert base local resource scientists and fire/fuels specialists who have a direct connection to the specific landscape and HVRAs in question, and 3) introduced multivariate response functions to characterize fire effects to HVRAs that consider biophysical variables beyond fire behavior. We anticipate that this work will further the state of wildfire risk science and will lead to additional application of risk assessment to inform land management planning. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Airway Management in a Patient with Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome.

PubMed

Gamble, John F; Kurian, Dinesh J; Udani, Andrea G; Greene, Nathaniel H

2016-01-01

We present a case of a 3-month-old female with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome (WHS) undergoing general anesthesia for laparoscopic gastrostomy tube placement with a focus on airway management. WHS is a rare 4p microdeletion syndrome resulting in multiple congenital abnormalities, including craniofacial deformities. Microcephaly, micrognathia, and glossoptosis are common features in WHS patients and risk factors for a pediatric airway that is potentially difficult to intubate. We discuss anesthesia strategies for airway preparation and management in a WHS patient requiring general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation.

Airway Management in a Patient with Wolf-Hirschhorn Syndrome

PubMed Central

Udani, Andrea G.

2016-01-01

We present a case of a 3-month-old female with Wolf-Hirschhorn syndrome (WHS) undergoing general anesthesia for laparoscopic gastrostomy tube placement with a focus on airway management. WHS is a rare 4p microdeletion syndrome resulting in multiple congenital abnormalities, including craniofacial deformities. Microcephaly, micrognathia, and glossoptosis are common features in WHS patients and risk factors for a pediatric airway that is potentially difficult to intubate. We discuss anesthesia strategies for airway preparation and management in a WHS patient requiring general anesthesia with endotracheal intubation. PMID:27752382

A STATISTICAL MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR THE DETECTION, QUANTIFICATION, AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL THRESHOLDS

EPA Science Inventory

This study will provide a general methodology for integrating threshold information from multiple species ecological metrics, allow for prediction of changes of alternative stable states, and provide a risk assessment tool that can be applied to adaptive management. The integr...

Management of multiple myeloma in older adults: Gaining ground with geriatric assessment.

PubMed

Wildes, Tanya M; Campagnaro, Erica

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma increases in incidence with age. With the aging of the population, the number of cases of multiple myeloma diagnosed in older adults each year will nearly double in the next 20years. The novel therapeutic agents have significantly improved survival in older adults, but their outcomes remain poorer than in younger patients. Older adults may be more vulnerable to toxicity of therapy, resulting in decreased dose intensity and contributing to poorer outcomes. Data are beginning to emerge to aid in identifying which individuals are at greater risk for toxicity of therapy; comorbidities, functional limitations, and age over 80years are among the factors associated with greater risk. Geriatric assessment holds promise in the care of older adults with multiple myeloma, both to allow modification of treatment to prevent toxicity, and to identify vulnerabilities that may require intervention. Emerging treatments with low toxicity and attention to individualizing therapy based on geriatric assessment may aid in further improving outcomes in older adults with multiple myeloma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse

PubMed Central

Regan, Tracey J.; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A.; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J.; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-01-01

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. PMID:28931744

Using multiple lines of evidence to assess the risk of ecosystem collapse.

PubMed

Bland, Lucie M; Regan, Tracey J; Dinh, Minh Ngoc; Ferrari, Renata; Keith, David A; Lester, Rebecca; Mouillot, David; Murray, Nicholas J; Nguyen, Hoang Anh; Nicholson, Emily

2017-09-27

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment. © 2017 The Authors.

The participatory vulnerability scoping diagram - deliberative risk ranking for community water systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, Peter D.; Yarnal, Brent; Coletti, Alex; Wood, Nathan J.

2013-01-01

Natural hazards and climate change present growing challenges to community water system (CWS) managers, who are increasingly turning to vulnerability assessments to identify, prioritize, and adapt to risks. Effectively assessing CWS vulnerability requires information and participation from various sources, one of which is stakeholders. In this article, we present a deliberative risk-ranking methodology, the participatory vulnerability scoping diagram (P-VSD), which allows rapid assessment and integration of multiple stakeholder perspectives of vulnerability. This technique is based on methods of deliberative risk evaluation and the vulnerability scoping diagram. The goal of the methodology is to engage CWS managers and stakeholders collectively to provide qualitative contextual risk rankings as a first step in a vulnerability assessment. We conduct an initial assessment using a case study of CWS in two U.S. counties, sites with broadly similar exposures but differences in population, land use, and other social sensitivity factors. Results demonstrate that CWS managers and stakeholders in the two case study communities all share the belief that their CWS are vulnerable to hazards but differ in how this vulnerability manifests itself in terms of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of the system.

Fundamentals in the management of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Fadilah, S A W

2010-09-01

Progress in our understanding of multiple myeloma and its treatment has resulted in a more tailored approach to patient management, with different therapeutics regimens for different patient populations. The decision to initiate therapy depends primarily on the presence of symptoms which has to balance the chance of tumor clearance and against the risks of treatment related mortality. Selection of appropriate initial treatment should be based primarily on patient's characteristics (biologic age, co-morbidities), the disease characteristics (tumor burden and genetic risk profile) and the expected toxicity profile of the different regimens. When treatment begins, in younger transplant eligible patients the goal is to achieve high quality responses with intensive therapies as the quality of response appears to be important surrogates for long-term outcome. In the majority of myeloma patients in whom intensive treatment is not an option due to advanced age and co-morbidities, treatment should emphasize on optimal disease control to obtain symptomatic relief and to maintain a satisfactory quality of life. The introduction of novel agents has substantially changed the treatment paradigm of this otherwise incurable disease. The utilization of these drugs has moved from relapse setting to the front line setting and has benefited all patient groups. Because of these rapid developments and many treatment options we need good quality clinical studies to guide clinical practice in the management of patients with multiple myeloma. This review presents an update on current concepts of diagnosis and treatment of patients with multiple myeloma and provides recommendations on tailored therapies with particular reference to the local practice. The information presented herein may be used by the health care providers caring for myeloma patients as a guideline to counsel patients to understand their disease and the treatment better.

Clinical features and outcomes of blunt splenic injury in children

PubMed Central

Yang, Kaiying; Li, Yanan; Wang, Chuan; Xiang, Bo; Chen, Siyuan; Ji, Yi

2017-01-01

Abstract Although the spleen is the most commonly injured intra-abdominal organ after blunt trauma, there are limited data available in China. The objectives of this study were to investigate the clinical features and determine the risk factors for operative management (OM) in children with blunt splenic injury (BSI). A review of the medical records of children diagnosed with BSI between January 2010 and September 2016 at West China Hospital of Sichuan University was performed. A total of 101 patients diagnosed with BSI were recruited, including 76 patients transferred from other hospitals. The male-to-female ratio was 2.06:1, with a mean age of 7.8 years old. The most common injury season was summer and the most common injury mechanism was road traffic accidents. Sixty-eight patients suffered multiple injuries. Thirty-four patients received blood transfusions. Two patients died from multiple organ failure or hemorrhagic shock. Significant differences were observed in the injury season, injury mechanism, injury date, and hemoglobin levels between the isolated injury group and the multiple injuries group. The overall operative rate was 29.7%. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, blood transfusion, and grade of injury were independent risk factors for OM. Our study provided evidence that the management of pediatric BSI was variable. The operative rate in pediatric BSI may be higher in certain patient groups. Although nonoperative management is one of the standard treatment options, our data suggest that OM is an appropriate way to treat patients who are hemodynamically unstable. PMID:29390566

Data Model for Multi Hazard Risk Assessment Spatial Support Decision System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrejchenko, Vera; Bakker, Wim; van Westen, Cees

2014-05-01

The goal of the CHANGES Spatial Decision Support System is to support end-users in making decisions related to risk reduction measures for areas at risk from multiple hydro-meteorological hazards. The crucial parts in the design of the system are the user requirements, the data model, the data storage and management, and the relationships between the objects in the system. The implementation of the data model is carried out entirely with an open source database management system with a spatial extension. The web application is implemented using open source geospatial technologies with PostGIS as the database, Python for scripting, and Geoserver and javascript libraries for visualization and the client-side user-interface. The model can handle information from different study areas (currently, study areas from France, Romania, Italia and Poland are considered). Furthermore, the data model handles information about administrative units, projects accessible by different types of users, user-defined hazard types (floods, snow avalanches, debris flows, etc.), hazard intensity maps of different return periods, spatial probability maps, elements at risk maps (buildings, land parcels, linear features etc.), economic and population vulnerability information dependent on the hazard type and the type of the element at risk, in the form of vulnerability curves. The system has an inbuilt database of vulnerability curves, but users can also add their own ones. Included in the model is the management of a combination of different scenarios (e.g. related to climate change, land use change or population change) and alternatives (possible risk-reduction measures), as well as data-structures for saving the calculated economic or population loss or exposure per element at risk, aggregation of the loss and exposure using the administrative unit maps, and finally, producing the risk maps. The risk data can be used for cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE). The data model includes data-structures for CBA and SMCE. The model is at the stage where risk and cost-benefit calculations can be stored but the remaining part is currently under development. Multi-criteria information, user management and the relation of these with the rest of the model is our next step. Having a carefully designed data model plays a crucial role in the development of the whole system for rapid development, keeping the data consistent, and in the end, support the end-user in making good decisions in risk-reduction measures related to multiple natural hazards. This work is part of the EU FP7 Marie Curie ITN "CHANGES"project (www.changes-itn.edu)

Risk assessment and management to prevent preterm birth.

PubMed

Koullali, B; Oudijk, M A; Nijman, T A J; Mol, B W J; Pajkrt, E

2016-04-01

Preterm birth is the most important cause of neonatal mortality and morbidity worldwide. In this review, we review potential risk factors associated with preterm birth and the subsequent management to prevent preterm birth in low and high risk women with a singleton or multiple pregnancy. A history of preterm birth is considered the most important risk factor for preterm birth in subsequent pregnancy. General risk factors with a much lower impact include ethnicity, low socio-economic status, maternal weight, smoking, and periodontal status. Pregnancy-related characteristics, including bacterial vaginosis and asymptomatic bacteriuria, appear to be of limited value in the prediction of preterm birth. By contrast, a mid-pregnancy cervical length measurement is independently associated with preterm birth and could be used to identify women at risk of a premature delivery. A fetal fibronectin test may be of additional value in the prediction of preterm birth. The most effective methods to prevent preterm birth depend on the obstetric history, which makes the identification of women at risk of preterm birth an important task for clinical care providers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Biological and nonbiological complex drugs for multiple sclerosis in Latin America: regulations and risk management.

PubMed

Carrá, Adriana; Macías Islas, Miguel Angel; Tarulla, Adriana; Bichuetti, Denis Bernardi; Finkelsztejn, Alessandro; Fragoso, Yara Dadalti; Árcega-Revilla, Raul; Cárcamo Rodríguez, Claudia; Durán, Juan Carlos; Bonitto, Juan García; León, Rosalba; Oehninger Gatti, Carlos; Orozco, Geraldine; Vizcarra Escobar, Darwin

2015-06-01

Biological drugs and nonbiological complex drugs with expired patents are followed by biosimilars and follow-on drugs that are supposedly similar and comparable with the reference product in terms of quality, safety and efficacy. Unlike simple molecules that can be copied and reproduced, biosimilars and follow-on complex drugs are heterogeneous and need specific regulations from health and pharmacovigilance agencies. A panel of 14 Latin American experts on multiple sclerosis from nine different countries met to discuss the recommendations regarding biosimilars and follow-on complex drugs for treating multiple sclerosis. Specific measures relating to manufacturing, therapeutic equivalence assessment and pharmacovigilance reports need to be implemented before commercialization. Physical, chemical, biological and immunogenic characterizations of the new product need to be available before clinical trials start. The new product must maintain the same immunogenicity as the original. Automatic substitution of biological and complex drugs poses unacceptable risks to the patient.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

A dynamic process of health risk assessment for business continuity management during the World Exposition Shanghai, China, 2010.

PubMed

Sun, Xiaodong; Keim, Mark; Dong, Chen; Mahany, Mollie; Guo, Xiang

2014-01-01

Reports of health issues related to mass gatherings around the world have indicated a potential for public health and medical emergencies to occur on a scale that could place a significant impact on business continuity for national and international organisations. This paper describes a risk assessment process for business continuity management that was performed as part of the planning efforts related to the World Expo 2010 Shanghai China (Expo), the world's largest mass gathering to date. Altogether, 73 million visitors attended the Expo, generating over US$2bn of revenue. During 2008 to 2010, the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention performed a dynamic series of four disaster risk assessments before and during the Expo. The purpose of this assessment process was to identify, analyse and evaluate risks for public health security during different stages of the Expo. This paper describes an overview of the novel approach for this multiple and dynamic process of assessment of health security risk for ensuring business continuity.

Plant-Based Nutrition: An Essential Component of Cardiovascular Disease Prevention and Management.

PubMed

Patel, Hena; Chandra, Sonal; Alexander, Sarah; Soble, Jeffrey; Williams, Kim Allan

2017-09-08

This review aims to summarize and discuss the role of plant-based nutrition as an adjunct to the management of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Discussion of nutrition and the benefits of a plant-based diet should be highlighted during healthcare provider visits as an essential part of the overall CVD prevention and management care plan. Evidence from prospective cohort studies indicates that a high consumption of predominantly plant-based foods, such as fruit and vegetables, nuts, and whole grains, is associated with a significantly lower risk of CVD. The protective effects of these foods are likely mediated through their multiple beneficial nutrients, including mono- and polyunsaturated fatty acids, omega-3 fatty acids, antioxidant vitamins, minerals, phytochemicals, fiber, and plant protein. In addition, minimizing intake of animal proteins has been shown to decrease the prevalence of CVD risk factors. Substantial evidence indicates that plant-based diets can play an important role in preventing and treating CVD and its risk factors. Such diets deserve more emphasis in dietary recommendations.

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

2017-04-01

Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted both in natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooking public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodical (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

Flood risk perception and adaptation capacity: a contribution to the socio-hydrology debate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Karagiorgos, Konstantinos; Kitikidou, Kyriaki; Maris, Fotios; Paparrizos, Spyridon; Thaler, Thomas

2017-06-01

Dealing with flood hazard and risk requires approaches rooted in both natural and social sciences, which provided the nexus for the ongoing debate on socio-hydrology. Various combinations of non-structural and structural flood risk reduction options are available to communities. Focusing on flood risk and the information associated with it, developing risk management plans is required but often overlooks public perception of a threat. The perception of risk varies in many different ways, especially between the authorities and the affected public. It is because of this disconnection that many risk management plans concerning floods have failed in the past. This paper examines the private adaptation capacity and willingness with respect to flooding in two different catchments in Greece prone to multiple flood events during the last 20 years. Two studies (East Attica and Evros) were carried out, comprised of a survey questionnaire of 155 and 157 individuals, from a peri-urban (East Attica) and a rural (Evros) area, respectively, and they focused on those vulnerable to periodic (rural area) and flash floods (peri-urban area). Based on the comparisons drawn from these responses, and identifying key issues to be addressed when flood risk management plans are implemented, improvements are being recommended for the social dimension surrounding such implementation. As such, the paper contributes to the ongoing discussion on human-environment interaction in socio-hydrology.

"Act Healthy": Promoting Health Behaviors and Self-Efficacy in the Workplace

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schopp, Laura H.; Bike, Denise H.; Clark, Mary J.; Minor, Marian A.

2015-01-01

Chronic health conditions and multiple health risk factors afflict Americans and burden employers, but effective, affordable, workplace-based health promotion interventions have not been widely implemented. This is the first study to adapt the empirically validated Chronic Disease Self-Management Program for a general employee population in a…

Assessment of DoD Wounded Warrior Matters: Managing Risks of Multiple Medications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-02-21

post-traumatic stress, obsessive behavior, etc. 5 Garrison-based refers to permanently established military bases in the United States or overseas...and mixed with an undesirable substance, such as used coffee grounds or kitty litter.  This mixture should be placed in a sealed bag or container

Misleading prioritizations from modelling range shifts under climate change

Treesearch

Helen R. Sofaer; Catherine S. Jarnevich; Curtis H. Flather

2018-01-01

Conservation planning requires the prioritization of a subset of taxa and geographical locations to focus monitoring and management efforts. Integration of the threats and opportunities posed by climate change often relies on predictions from species distribution models, particularly for assessments of vulnerability or invasion risk for multiple taxa. We evaluated...

Risk assessment and adaptive runoff utilization in water resource system considering the complex relationship among water supply, electricity generation and environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, J.; Zeng, X.; Mo, L.; Chen, L.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Yuan, L.; He, Z.

2017-12-01

Generally, the adaptive utilization and regulation of runoff in the source region of China's southwest rivers is classified as a typical multi-objective collaborative optimization problem. There are grim competitions and incidence relation in the subsystems of water supply, electricity generation and environment, which leads to a series of complex problems represented by hydrological process variation, blocked electricity output and water environment risk. Mathematically, the difficulties of multi-objective collaborative optimization focus on the description of reciprocal relationships and the establishment of evolving model of adaptive systems. Thus, based on the theory of complex systems science, this project tries to carry out the research from the following aspects: the changing trend of coupled water resource, the covariant factor and driving mechanism, the dynamic evolution law of mutual feedback dynamic process in the supply-generation-environment coupled system, the environmental response and influence mechanism of coupled mutual feedback water resource system, the relationship between leading risk factor and multiple risk based on evolutionary stability and dynamic balance, the transfer mechanism of multiple risk response with the variation of the leading risk factor, the multidimensional coupled feedback system of multiple risk assessment index system and optimized decision theory. Based on the above-mentioned research results, the dynamic method balancing the efficiency of multiple objectives in the coupled feedback system and optimized regulation model of water resources is proposed, and the adaptive scheduling mode considering the internal characteristics and external response of coupled mutual feedback system of water resource is established. In this way, the project can make a contribution to the optimal scheduling theory and methodology of water resource management under uncertainty in the source region of Southwest River.

Bringing Back a Healthy Buzz? Invertebrate Parasites and Reintroductions: A Case Study in Bumblebees.

PubMed

Brown, Mark J F; Sainsbury, Anthony W; Vaughan-Higgins, Rebecca J; Measures, Gavin H; Jones, Catherine M; Gammans, Nikki

2017-03-01

Reintroductions can play a key role in the conservation of endangered species. Parasites may impact reintroductions, both positively and negatively, but few case studies of how to manage parasites during reintroductions exist. Bumblebees are in decline at regional and global scales, and reintroductions can be used to re-establish extinct local populations. Here we report on how the risks associated with parasites are being managed in an ongoing reintroduction of the short-haired bumblebee, Bombus subterraneus, to the UK. Disease risk analysis was conducted and disease risk management plans constructed to design a capture-quarantine-release system that minimised the impacts on both the bumblebees and on their natural parasites. Given that bumblebee parasites are (i) generalists, (ii) geographically ubiquitous, and (iii) show evidence of local adaptation, the disease risk management plan was designed to limit the co-introduction of parasites from the source population in Sweden to the destination site in the UK. Results suggest that this process at best eliminated, or at least severely curtailed the co-introduction of parasites, and ongoing updates of the plan enabled minimization of impacts on natural host-parasite dynamics in the Swedish source population. This study suggests that methods designed for reintroductions of vertebrate species can be successfully applied to invertebrates. Future reintroductions of invertebrates where the parasite fauna is less well known should take advantage of next-generation barcoding and multiple survey years prior to the start of reintroductions, to develop comprehensive disease risk management plans.

A Bayesian Approach to Integrated Ecological and Human Health Risk Assessment for the South River, Virginia Mercury-Contaminated Site.

PubMed

Harris, Meagan J; Stinson, Jonah; Landis, Wayne G

2017-07-01

We conducted a regional-scale integrated ecological and human health risk assessment by applying the relative risk model with Bayesian networks (BN-RRM) to a case study of the South River, Virginia mercury-contaminated site. Risk to four ecological services of the South River (human health, water quality, recreation, and the recreational fishery) was evaluated using a multiple stressor-multiple endpoint approach. These four ecological services were selected as endpoints based on stakeholder feedback and prioritized management goals for the river. The BN-RRM approach allowed for the calculation of relative risk to 14 biotic, human health, recreation, and water quality endpoints from chemical and ecological stressors in five risk regions of the South River. Results indicated that water quality and the recreational fishery were the ecological services at highest risk in the South River. Human health risk for users of the South River was low relative to the risk to other endpoints. Risk to recreation in the South River was moderate with little spatial variability among the five risk regions. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis identified stressors and other parameters that influence risk for each endpoint in each risk region. This research demonstrates a probabilistic approach to integrated ecological and human health risk assessment that considers the effects of chemical and ecological stressors across the landscape. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Overactive bladder in the vulnerable elderly

PubMed Central

Wolff, Gillian F; Kuchel, George A; Smith, Phillip P

2014-01-01

Overactive bladder (OAB) is a common problem that may occur in individuals of all ages. It has a considerable impact on patient quality of life, and although moderately effective management strategies do exist, this condition often remains undiagnosed and untreated. OAB needs to be viewed as a symptom complex. Its presentation and management are complicated in the vulnerable elderly by the presence of baseline frailty and multiple coexisting chronic conditions. Furthermore, and beyond a simple understanding of symptomatology, providers must address patient goals and motivations as well as the expectations of caretakers. These multiple levels of perception, function, expectations, and treatment efficacy/risks must be tailored to the individual patient. While the vulnerable elderly patient may often have evidence of urinary tract dysfunction, OAB and urge urinary incontinence in this population must be understood as a multifactorial geriatric syndrome and viewed in the context of medical and functional baseline and precipitating risk factors. Expectations and goals must be tailored to the resources of vulnerable elderly patients and their caregivers, and care must be coordinated with other medical care providers. The management of OAB in the vulnerable elderly often poses significant management challenges. Nonetheless, with a thoughtful approach and an aim towards future research specifically for this population, significant reductions in morbidity and mortality long with enhancement in health-related quality of life are possible. PMID:25328867

Prognostic Validation of SKY92 and Its Combination With ISS in an Independent Cohort of Patients With Multiple Myeloma.

PubMed

van Beers, Erik H; van Vliet, Martin H; Kuiper, Rowan; de Best, Leonie; Anderson, Kenneth C; Chari, Ajai; Jagannath, Sundar; Jakubowiak, Andrzej; Kumar, Shaji K; Levy, Joan B; Auclair, Daniel; Lonial, Sagar; Reece, Donna; Richardson, Paul; Siegel, David S; Stewart, A Keith; Trudel, Suzanne; Vij, Ravi; Zimmerman, Todd M; Fonseca, Rafael

2017-09-01

High risk and low risk multiple myeloma patients follow a very different clinical course as reflected in their PFS and OS. To be clinically useful, methodologies used to identify high and low risk disease must be validated in representative independent clinical data and available so that patients can be managed appropriately. A recent analysis has indicated that SKY92 combined with the International Staging System (ISS) identifies patients with different risk disease with high sensitivity. Here we computed the performance of eight gene expression based classifiers SKY92, UAMS70, UAMS80, IFM15, Proliferation Index, Centrosome Index, Cancer Testis Antigen and HM19 as well as the combination of SKY92/ISS in an independent cohort of 91 newly diagnosed MM patients. The classifiers identified between 9%-21% of patients as high risk, with hazard ratios (HRs) between 1.9 and 8.2. Among the eight signatures, SKY92 identified the largest proportion of patients (21%) also with the highest HR (8.2). Our analysis also validated the combination SKY92/ISS for identification of three classes; low risk (42%), intermediate risk (37%) and high risk (21%). Between low risk and high risk classes the HR is >10. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A risk-based decision support framework for selection of appropriate safety measure system for underground coal mines.

PubMed

Samantra, Chitrasen; Datta, Saurav; Mahapatra, Siba Sankar

2017-03-01

In the context of underground coal mining industry, the increased economic issues regarding implementation of additional safety measure systems, along with growing public awareness to ensure high level of workers safety, have put great pressure on the managers towards finding the best solution to ensure safe as well as economically viable alternative selection. Risk-based decision support system plays an important role in finding such solutions amongst candidate alternatives with respect to multiple decision criteria. Therefore, in this paper, a unified risk-based decision-making methodology has been proposed for selecting an appropriate safety measure system in relation to an underground coal mining industry with respect to multiple risk criteria such as financial risk, operating risk, and maintenance risk. The proposed methodology uses interval-valued fuzzy set theory for modelling vagueness and subjectivity in the estimates of fuzzy risk ratings for making appropriate decision. The methodology is based on the aggregative fuzzy risk analysis and multi-criteria decision making. The selection decisions are made within the context of understanding the total integrated risk that is likely to incur while adapting the particular safety system alternative. Effectiveness of the proposed methodology has been validated through a real-time case study. The result in the context of final priority ranking is seemed fairly consistent.

Unknown risk: co-exposure to lead and other heavy metals among children living in small-scale mining communities in Zamfara State, Nigeria.

PubMed

Bartrem, Casey; Tirima, Simba; von Lindern, Ian; von Braun, Margrit; Worrell, Mary Claire; Mohammad Anka, Shehu; Abdullahi, Aishat; Moller, Gregory

2014-08-01

The lead poisoning crisis in Zamfara State, Northern Nigeria has been called the worst such case in modern history and it presents unique challenges for risk assessment and management of co-exposure to multiple heavy metals. More than 400 children have died in Zamfara as a result of ongoing lead intoxication since early in 2010. A review of the common toxic endpoints of the major heavy metals advances analysis of co-exposures and their common pathologies. Environmental contamination in Bagega village, examined by X-ray fluorescence of soils, includes lead, mercury, cadmium, arsenic and manganese. Co-exposure risk is explored by scoring common toxic endpoints and hazard indices to calculate a common pathology hazard risk ranking of Pb > As > Hg > Cd > Mn. Zamfara presents an extreme picture of both lead and multiple heavy metal mortality and morbidity, but similar situations have become increasingly prevalent worldwide.

Key factors contributing to accident severity rate in construction industry in Iran: a regression modelling approach.

PubMed

Soltanzadeh, Ahmad; Mohammadfam, Iraj; Moghimbeigi, Abbas; Ghiasvand, Reza

2016-03-01

Construction industry involves the highest risk of occupational accidents and bodily injuries, which range from mild to very severe. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to identify the factors associated with accident severity rate (ASR) in the largest Iranian construction companies based on data about 500 occupational accidents recorded from 2009 to 2013. We also gathered data on safety and health risk management and training systems. Data were analysed using Pearson's chi-squared coefficient and multiple regression analysis. Median ASR (and the interquartile range) was 107.50 (57.24- 381.25). Fourteen of the 24 studied factors stood out as most affecting construction accident severity (p<0.05). These findings can be applied in the design and implementation of a comprehensive safety and health risk management system to reduce ASR.

Dilemmas in Treating Smoldering Multiple Myeloma

PubMed Central

Ahn, Inhye E.; Mailankody, Sham; Korde, Neha; Landgren, Ola

2015-01-01

Novel therapies hold promise for high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM). Recent studies suggest that modern combination approaches can be options for high-risk SMM to obtain deep molecular responses with favorable toxicity profiles. Although pioneering treatment trials based on small numbers of patients suggest progression-free and overall survival benefits, application of the data to real-life practice remains to be validated. Therapeutic modulation of disease tempo, disease burden, clonal evolution, and tumor microenvironment in SMM remains to be understood and calls for reliable biomarkers reflective of disease biology. Here, we review studies that open a new management platform for SMM, address ongoing dilemmas in practice and under investigation, and highlight emerging scientific questions in the era of SMM treatment. PMID:25422486

Recent advances in the prevention and management of preterm birth

PubMed Central

Tan, Min Yi

2015-01-01

The management of preterm birth has seen major transformations in the last few decades with increasing interest worldwide, due to the impact of preterm birth on neonatal morbidity and mortality. The prevention strategies currently available for asymptomatic women at risk of preterm birth include progesterone, cervical cerclage and cervical pessary. Each approach has varying effects depending on the patient's prior history of preterm birth, cervical length and the presence of multiple gestations. There is a shift in the focus of antenatal treatment, with the use of prenatal magnesium sulphate and corticosteroids, to reduce neonatal intensive care admissions and longer-term disabilities associated with preterm birth, consequently relieving emotional and economical burden. This article provides an update on the recent advances in prevention and management approaches available for women at risk of preterm birth. PMID:26097713

Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians.

PubMed

Raptis, Stavroula; Chen, Jia Ning; Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. To evaluate the association between family physicians' risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08-27.85). Physicians' willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03-0.86). Physicians' aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed.

Aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks affect therapeutic decisions in managing atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: results of a pilot study in family physicians

PubMed Central

Saposnik, Florencia; Pelyavskyy, Roman; Liuni, Andrew; Saposnik, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Background Anticoagulation is the therapeutic paradigm for stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). It is unknown how physicians make treatment decisions in primary stroke prevention for patients with AF. Objectives To evaluate the association between family physicians’ risk preferences (aversion risk and ambiguity) and therapeutic recommendations (anticoagulation) in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention by applying concepts from behavioral economics. Methods Overall, 73 family physicians participated and completed the study. Our study comprised seven simulated case vignettes, three behavioral experiments, and two validated surveys. Behavioral experiments and surveys incorporated an economic framework to determine risk preferences and biases (e.g., ambiguity aversion, willingness to take risks). The primary outcome was making the correct decision of anticoagulation therapy. Secondary outcomes included medical errors in the management of AF for stroke prevention. Results Overall, 23.3% (17/73) of the family physicians elected not to escalate the therapy from antiplatelets to anticoagulation when recommended by best practice guidelines. A total of 67.1% of physicians selected the correct therapeutic options in two or more of the three simulated case vignettes. Multivariate analysis showed that aversion to ambiguity was associated with appropriate change to anticoagulation therapy in the management of AF (OR 5.48, 95% CI 1.08–27.85). Physicians’ willingness to take individual risk in multiple domains was associated with lower errors (OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.03–0.86). Conclusion Physicians’ aversion to ambiguity and willingness to take risks are associated with appropriate therapeutic decisions in the management of AF for primary stroke prevention. Further large scale studies are needed. PMID:28979101

Mortality in perforated peptic ulcer patients after selective management of stratified poor risk cases.

PubMed

Rahman, M Mizanur; Islam, M Saiful; Flora, Sabrina; Akhter, S Fariduddin; Hossain, Shahid; Karim, Fazlul

2007-12-01

Perforated peptic ulcer disease continues to inflict high morbidity and mortality. Although patients can be stratified according to their surgical risk, optimal management has yet to be described. In this study we demonstrate a treatment option that improves the mortality among critically ill, poor risk patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease. In our study, two series were retrospectively reviewed: group A patients (n = 522) were treated in a single surgical unit at the Dhaka Medical College Hospital, Dhaka, Bangladesh during the 1980s. Among them, 124 patients were stratified as poor risk based on age, delayed presentation, peritoneal contamination, and coexisting medical problems. These criteria were the basis for selecting a group of poor risk patients (n = 84) for minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) out of a larger group of patients, group B (n = 785) treated at Khulna Medical College Hospital during the 1990s. In group A, 479 patients underwent conventional operative management with an operative mortality of 8.97%. Among the 43 deaths, 24 patients were >60 years of age (55.8%), 12 patients had delayed presentation (27.9%), and 7 patients were in shock or had multiple coexisting medical problems (16.2%). In group B, 626 underwent conventional operative management, with 26 deaths at a mortality rate of 4.15%. Altogether, 84 patients were stratified as poor risk and were managed with minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) followed by conservative treatment. Three of these patients died with an operative mortality of 3.5%. Minimal surgical intervention (percutaneous peritoneal drainage) can significantly lower the mortality rate among a selected group of critically ill, poor risk patients with perforated peptic ulcer disease.

Evidence basis for integrated management of mineral metabolism in patients with end-stage renal disease.

PubMed

Scialla, Julia J

2018-07-01

Treatment of mineral metabolism is a mainstay of dialysis care including some of its most widely used and costly pharmaceuticals. Although many mineral metabolites are associated with increased risk of mortality, cardiovascular disease, and other morbidities, few clinical trials are available to guide therapy and most focus on single drug approaches. In practice, providers manage many aspects of mineral metabolism simultaneously in integrated treatment approaches that incorporate multiple agents and changes in the dialysis prescription. The present review discusses the rationale and existing evidence for evaluating integrated, as opposed to single drug, approaches in mineral metabolism. Drugs used to treat mineral metabolism have numerous, and sometimes, opposing effects on biochemical risk factors, such as fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23), calcium, and phosphorus. Although vitamin D sterols raise these risk markers when lowering parathyroid hormone (PTH), calcimimetics lower them. Trials demonstrate that combined approaches best 'normalize' the mineral metabolism axis in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Observations embedded within major trials of calcimimetics reveal that adjustment of calcium-based binders and dialysate calcium is a common approach to adverse effects of these drugs with some initial, but inconclusive, evidence that these co-interventions may impact outcomes. The multiple, and often opposing, biochemical effects of many mineral metabolism drugs provides a strong rationale for studying integrated management strategies that consider combinations of drugs and co-interventions as a whole. This remains a current gap in the field with opportunities for clinical trials.

Management strategy in pregnancies with elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein based on a second assay.

PubMed

Spaggiari, Emmanuel; Ruas, Marie; Dreux, Sophie; Valat, Anne-Sylvie; Czerkiewicz, Isabelle; Guimiot, Fabien; Schmitz, Thomas; Delezoide, Anne-Lise; Muller, Françoise

2013-04-01

To assess maternal-fetal outcomes in pregnancies associated with persistently elevated second-trimester maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. A retrospective cohort study in 658 patients with maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein ≥2.5 multiple of median, performed at routine Down syndrome screening. Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein was assayed a second time in 341 of them. Outcomes were recorded in all cases. The group with unexplained maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein persistently ≥2.5 multiple of median was associated with more pregnancy complications 37 of 92 (40.2%) as fetal death, preeclampsia, intrauterine growth restriction, and congenital nephrotic syndrome, compared with the group with maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein that returned to a normal level 37 of 226 (16.4%) (P < .001). When maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein returns to a normal level on a second assay, the risk of adverse outcome significantly decreases, but these pregnancies are still at risk of complications and therefore need close surveillance. Repeat maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein assay allows identification of patients who should be offered amniocentesis to evaluate the risk of nephrotic syndrome and epidermolysis bullosa. Alpha-fetoprotein should be monitored in pregnancies associated with unexplained high maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein. A management strategy based on ultrasound examination, second maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein assay and amniocentesis is proposed to improve prenatal counseling and management of such pregnancies. However, a prospective study remains necessary to evaluate it. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Volcano warning systems: Chapter 67

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gregg, Chris E.; Houghton, Bruce F.; Ewert, John W.

2015-01-01

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

Managing the student with severe food allergies.

PubMed

Robinson, Joanne M; Ficca, Michelle

2012-06-01

School nurses play a key role in managing students with food allergies. It is becoming more common to encounter students with severe allergies to multiple foods, putting them at risk for anaphylaxis. It is essential that the school nurse have a clear understanding of food allergies and how to effectively manage students in the school setting. Effective communication between families, health care providers, faculty, staff, and students, is of utmost importance when developing a plan of care to ensure the safety of the student with food allergies. Using an interdisciplinary approach to case management, the school nurse can develop comprehensive individualized health care plans for all students with food allergies.

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

A long-term comparative assessment of human health risk to leachate-contaminated groundwater from heavy metal with different liner systems.

PubMed

Mishra, Harshit; Karmakar, Subhankar; Kumar, Rakesh; Kadambala, Praneeth

2018-01-01

The handling and management of municipal solid waste (MSW) are major challenges for solid waste management in developing countries. Open dumping is still the most common waste disposal method in India. However, landfilling also causes various environmental, social, and human health impacts. The generation of heavily polluted leachate is a major concern to public health. Engineered barrier systems (EBSs) are commonly used to restrict potentially harmful wastes by preventing the leachate percolation to groundwater and overflow to surface water bodies. The EBSs are made of natural (e.g., soil, clay) and/or synthetic materials such as polymeric materials (e.g., geomembranes, geosynthetic clay liners) by arranging them in layers. Various studies have estimated the human health risk from leachate-contaminated groundwater. However, no studies have been reported to compare the human health risks, particularly due to the leachate contamination with different liner systems. The present study endeavors to quantify the human health risk to contamination from MSW landfill leachate using multiple simulations for various EBSs. To quantify the variation in health risks to groundwater consumption to the child and adult populations, the Turbhe landfill of Navi Mumbai in India has been selected. The leachate and groundwater samples were collected continuously throughout January-September in 2015 from the landfill site, and heavy metal concentrations were analyzed using an inductively coupled plasma system. The LandSim 2.5 Model, a landfill simulator, was used to simulate the landfill activities for various time slices, and non-carcinogenic human health risk was determined for selected heavy metals. Further, the uncertainties associated with multiple input parameters in the health risk model were quantified under a Monte Carlo simulation framework.

Clustering of lifestyle risk behaviours among residents of forty deprived neighbourhoods in London: lessons for targeting public health interventions.

PubMed

Watts, P; Buck, D; Netuveli, G; Renton, A

2016-06-01

Clustering of lifestyle risk behaviours is very important in predicting premature mortality. Understanding the extent to which risk behaviours are clustered in deprived communities is vital to most effectively target public health interventions. We examined co-occurrence and associations between risk behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, poor diet, low physical activity and high sedentary time) reported by adults living in deprived London neighbourhoods. Associations between sociodemographic characteristics and clustered risk behaviours were examined. Latent class analysis was used to identify underlying clustering of behaviours. Over 90% of respondents reported at least one risk behaviour. Reporting specific risk behaviours predicted reporting of further risk behaviours. Latent class analyses revealed four underlying classes. Membership of a maximal risk behaviour class was more likely for young, white males who were unable to work. Compared with recent national level analysis, there was a weaker relationship between education and clustering of behaviours and a very high prevalence of clustering of risk behaviours in those unable to work. Young, white men who report difficulty managing on income were at high risk of reporting multiple risk behaviours. These groups may be an important target for interventions to reduce premature mortality caused by multiple risk behaviours. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Safeguarding the provision of ecosystem services in catchment systems.

PubMed

Everard, Mark

2013-04-01

A narrow technocentric focus on a few favored ecosystem services (generally provisioning services) has led to ecosystem degradation globally, including catchment systems and their capacities to support human well-being. Increasing recognition of the multiple benefits provided by ecosystems is slowly being translated into policy and some areas of practice, although there remains a significant shortfall in the incorporation of a systemic perspective into operation management and decision-making tools. Nevertheless, a range of ecosystem-based solutions to issues as diverse as flooding and green space provision in the urban environment offers hope for improving habitat and optimization of beneficial services. The value of catchment ecosystem processes and their associated services is also being increasingly recognized and internalized by the water industry, improving water quality and quantity through catchment land management rather than at greater expense in the treatment costs of contaminated water abstracted lower in catchments. Parallel recognition of the value of working with natural processes, rather than "defending" built assets when catchment hydrology is adversely affected by unsympathetic upstream development, is being progressively incorporated into flood risk management policy. This focus on wider catchment processes also yields a range of cobenefits for fishery, wildlife, amenity, flood risk, and other interests, which may be optimized if multiple stakeholders and their diverse value systems are included in decision-making processes. Ecosystem services, particularly implemented as a central element of the ecosystem approach, provide an integrated framework for building in these different perspectives and values, many of them formerly excluded, into commercial and resource management decision-making processes, thereby making tractable the integrative aspirations of sustainable development. This can help redress deeply entrenched inherited assumptions, habits, and vested interests, replacing them in many management situations with wider recognition of the multiple values of ecosystems and their services. Global interest in taking an ecosystem approach is promoting novel scientific and policy thinking, yet there is a shortfall in its translation into practical management tools. Professional associations may have key roles to play in breaking down barriers to the "mainstreaming" of systemic perspectives into common practice, particularly through joining u different sectors of society essential to their implementation and ongoing adaptive management. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Guidelines for Risk-Based Changeover of Biopharma Multi-Product Facilities.

PubMed

Lynch, Rob; Barabani, David; Bellorado, Kathy; Canisius, Peter; Heathcote, Doug; Johnson, Alan; Wyman, Ned; Parry, Derek Willison

2018-01-01

In multi-product biopharma facilities, the protection from product contamination due to the manufacture of multiple products simultaneously is paramount to assure product quality. To that end, the use of traditional changeover methods (elastomer change-out, full sampling, etc.) have been widely used within the industry and have been accepted by regulatory agencies. However, with the endorsement of Quality Risk Management (1), the use of risk-based approaches may be applied to assess and continuously improve established changeover processes. All processes, including changeover, can be improved with investment (money/resources), parallel activities, equipment design improvements, and standardization. However, processes can also be improved by eliminating waste. For product changeover, waste is any activity not needed for the new process or that does not provide added assurance of the quality of the subsequent product. The application of a risk-based approach to changeover aligns with the principles of Quality Risk Management. Through the use of risk assessments, the appropriate changeover controls can be identified and controlled to assure product quality is maintained. Likewise, the use of risk assessments and risk-based approaches may be used to improve operational efficiency, reduce waste, and permit concurrent manufacturing of products. © PDA, Inc. 2018.

Anesthesia in the patient with multiple drug allergies: are all allergies the same?

PubMed

Dewachter, Pascale; Mouton-Faivre, Claudie; Castells, Mariana C; Hepner, David L

2011-06-01

During the preoperative evaluation, patients frequently indicate 'multiple drug allergies', most of which have not been validated. Potential allergic cross-reactivity between drugs and foods is frequently considered as a risk factor for perioperative hypersensitivity. The aim of this review is to facilitate the recognition of risk factors for perioperative anaphylaxis and help the management of patients with 'multiple drug allergies' during the perioperative period. Neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBAs) and antibiotics are the most common drugs triggering perioperative anaphylaxis. Quaternary ammonium ions have been suggested to be the allergenic determinant of NMBAs. Even though the 'pholcodine hypothesis' has been suggested to explain the occurrence of NMBA-induced allergy, this concept remains unclear. Although many practitioners believe that certain food allergies present an issue with the use of propofol, there is no role to contraindicate propofol in egg-allergic, soy-allergic or peanut-allergic patients. IgE-mediated hypersensitivity has been reported with seafood and iodinated drugs, IgE-mediated hypersensitivity has been reported with seafood and iodinated drugs, but there is no cross-reactivity between them. The allergenic determinants have been characterized for fish, shellfish and povidone iodine and remain unknown for contrast agents. There are many false assumptions regarding drug allergies. The main goal of this article is to review the potential cross-reactivity among specific families of drugs and foods in order to facilitate the anesthetic management of patients with 'multiple drug allergies'.

Comparative analysis of Multiple risks in the Western part of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsereteli, N.; Chelidze, T.; Varazanashvili, O.; Amiranashvili, A.

2009-04-01

Georgia is prone to catastrophes. In the last two decades, there have occurred the following natural disasters: (a) Avalanches in Svaneti and Khevsureti, (b) landslides in the mountainous Achara, floods, (c) hurricane and drought in West and East Georgia, (d) Racha earthquake of 1991 and (e) the Tbilisi Earthquake of 2002. These phenomena are very special both from ecological and from social-economical points of view. By the disaster risk index obtained by the UNDP, Georgia is similar to countries with medium and high level risk. Therefore, natural disasters in Georgia are considered as a negative factor in the development process of the country. This implies the necessity of more active actions by all possible means to reduce the risk of natural disasters at each level and maintain the sustainable economic development of the country, including good education at the universities and schools for real understanding of natural hazards. The main goal of the work here is the assessment of 12 widespread natural disasters and multiple risks for political districts in West Georgia. These natural disasters include earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, floods, mudflows, droughts, hurricanes, lightning, hail, glaze, freezes, mists. The research was based on the following steps: (a) Creation of electronic detailed databases of natural disasters that occurred in Georgia. These databases consist of the parameters of such hazardous phenomena class that caused natural disasters. (b) Quantitative investigation of energetic and spatial-time regularities of 12 natural disasters for the territory of Georgia. Estimation of people and environment (technosphere) vulnerability. (c) Elaboration of mathematical models and algorithms of disasters multiple risks taking into account the concrete conditions: (i) Sharing and generalization of gathered experience in the world. This allows more proper and wide comparison of the multiple risks of Caucasus countries; (ii) Taking into account the general formula of risk = hazard x damage, transfer from analyze of separate risk to its complex one; (iii) Taking into account the reality of Georgia and complex scheme of revealed risk in separate district of the country during the construction of multiple risk models. Investigation of each step reveals problem according to essential parts in the multiple risks assessments, such as communication between scientists, engineers, civil protection and other agencies. A big gap in such kind of relationship leads to lack of important information, such as economic loss according to each hazard. Low level in education according in natural hazards cause bad management and sometimes increase economic and mortality loss.

Lipid abnormalities in women: data for risk, data for management.

PubMed

Wenger, Nanette K

2006-01-01

In multiple randomized, controlled clinical trials, statin treatment of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in women at increased risk of or with coronary heart disease decreased the risk of coronary events: coronary death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and myocardial revascularization procedures. Total mortality was unchanged, potentially reflecting the underrepresentation of women in these trials and consequent small number of fatal events. Statin therapy provided comparable benefit for women and men with acute coronary syndromes. Application of lipid-lowering therapy with statin drugs is currently underutilized in women, and represents an opportunity to improve clinical cardiovascular outcomes for women.

Integrating Multiple Social Statuses in Health Disparities Research: The Case of Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Williams, David R; Kontos, Emily Z; Viswanath, K; Haas, Jennifer S; Lathan, Christopher S; MacConaill, Laura E; Chen, Jarvis; Ayanian, John Z

2012-01-01

Objective To illustrate the complex patterns that emerge when race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status (SES), and gender are considered simultaneously in health care disparities research and to outline the needed research to understand them by using disparities in lung cancer risks, treatment, and outcomes as an example. Principal Findings SES, gender, and race/ethnicity are social categories that are robust predictors of variations in health and health services utilization. These are usually considered separately, but intersectionality theory indicates that the impact of each depends on the others. Each reflects historically and culturally contingent variations in social, economic, and political status. Distinct patterns of risk and resilience emerge at the intersections of multiple social categories and shape the experience of health, health care access, utilization, quality, and outcomes where these categories intersect. Intersectional approaches call for greater attention to understand social processes at multiple levels of society and require the collection of relevant data and utilization of appropriate analytic approaches to understand how multiple risk factors and resources combine to affect the distribution of disease and its management. Conclusions Understanding how race/ethnicity, gender, and SES are interactive, interdependent, and social identities can provide new knowledge to enhance our efforts to effectively address health disparities. PMID:22568674

The risk assessment of sudden water pollution for river network system under multi-source random emission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.

2016-12-01

Sudden water pollution accidents are unavoidable risk events that we must learn to co-exist with. In China's Taihu River Basin, the river flow conditions are complicated with frequently artificial interference. Sudden water pollution accident occurs mainly in the form of a large number of abnormal discharge of wastewater, and has the characteristics with the sudden occurrence, the uncontrollable scope, the uncertainty object and the concentrated distribution of many risk sources. Effective prevention of pollution accidents that may occur is of great significance for the water quality safety management. Bayesian networks can be applied to represent the relationship between pollution sources and river water quality intuitively. Using the time sequential Monte Carlo algorithm, the pollution sources state switching model, water quality model for river network and Bayesian reasoning is integrated together, and the sudden water pollution risk assessment model for river network is developed to quantify the water quality risk under the collective influence of multiple pollution sources. Based on the isotope water transport mechanism, a dynamic tracing model of multiple pollution sources is established, which can describe the relationship between the excessive risk of the system and the multiple risk sources. Finally, the diagnostic reasoning algorithm based on Bayesian network is coupled with the multi-source tracing model, which can identify the contribution of each risk source to the system risk under the complex flow conditions. Taking Taihu Lake water system as the research object, the model is applied to obtain the reasonable results under the three typical years. Studies have shown that the water quality risk at critical sections are influenced by the pollution risk source, the boundary water quality, the hydrological conditions and self -purification capacity, and the multiple pollution sources have obvious effect on water quality risk of the receiving water body. The water quality risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a effective tool for systematically quantifying the random uncertainty in plain river network system, and it also provides the technical support for the decision-making of controlling the sudden water pollution through identification of critical pollution sources.

Magnet foreign body ingestion: rare occurrence but big consequences.

PubMed

Sola, Richard; Rosenfeld, Eric H; Yu, Yangyang R; St Peter, Shawn D; Shah, Sohail R

2017-08-24

To review the outcomes of magnet ingestions from two children's hospitals and develop a clinical management pathway. Children <18years old who ingested a magnet were reviewed from 1/2011 to 6/2016 from two tertiary center children's hospitals. Demographics, symptoms, management and outcomes were analyzed. From 2011 to 2016, there were 89 magnet ingestions (50 from hospital 1 and 39 from hospital 2); 50 (56%) were males. Median age was 7.9 (4.0-12.0) years; 60 (67%) presented with multiple magnets or a magnet and a second metallic co-ingestion. Suspected locations found on imaging were: stomach (53%), small bowel (38%), colon (23%) and esophagus (3%). Only 35 patients (39%) presented with symptoms and the most common symptom was abdominal pain (33%). 42 (47%) patients underwent an intervention, in which 20 (23%) had an abdominal operation. For those undergoing abdominal surgery, an exact logistic regression model identified multiple magnets or a magnet and a second metallic object co-ingestion (OR 12.9; 95% CI, 2.4 - Infinity) and abdominal pain (OR 13.0; 95% CI, 3.2-67.8) as independent risk factors. Magnets have a high risk of requiring surgical intervention for removal. Therefore, we developed a management algorithm for magnet ingestion. Level III. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Two Year Old With Water Bead Ingestion.

PubMed

Jackson, Jami; Randell, Kimberly A; Knapp, Jane F

2015-08-01

Foreign body ingestion is a common pediatric complaint. Two case reports describe intestinal obstruction in children from an ingestion of a single superabsorbent water ball, requiring surgical removal. We describe nonsurgical management of an asymptomatic child who ingested approximately 100 superabsorbent water beads.Because of the risk for subsequent intestinal obstruction, the patient was admitted for whole bowel irrigation. This case report is the first describing use of whole bowel irrigation in the management of an asymptomatic patient with multiple water beads ingestion.

Project risk and appeals in U.S. Forest Service planning

Treesearch

Marc J. Stern; S. Andrew Predmore; Wayde C. Morse; David N. Seesholtz

2013-01-01

The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requires U.S. Forest Service planning processes to be conducted by interdisciplinary teams of resource specialists to analyze and disclose the likely environmental impacts of proposed natural resource management actions on Forest Service lands. Multiple challenges associated with these processes have been a source of...

Comparing extinction risk and economic cost in wildlife conservation planning

Treesearch

Robert G. Haight

1995-01-01

Planning regulations pursuant to the National Forest Management Act of 1976 require the USDA Forest Service to produce cost-effective, multiple-use forest plans that ensure the viability of native wildlife populations within the planning area. In accordance with these regulations, this paper presents a method for determining cost-effective conservation plans for...

Evaluation of Core Cultivation Practices to Reduce Ecological Risk of Pesticides in Runoff from Agrostis palustris

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Highly managed biotic systems such as golf courses and commercial landscapes often require multiple applications of pesticides that may be transported with runoff to areas beyond the intended site. Pesticides have been detected in surface waters of rural and urban watersheds raising questions conce...

Real Clients, Real Management, Real Failure: The Risks and Rewards of Service Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cyphert, Dale

2006-01-01

There are multiple advantages to service-learning projects across the business curriculum, but in communication classes the author has found their biggest value to be authenticity. A "real-world" assignment requires the flexible, creative integration of communication skills in an environment where, "unlike exams and other typical university…

New opportunities of real-world data from clinical routine settings in life-cycle management of drugs: example of an integrative approach in multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Rothenbacher, Dietrich; Capkun, Gorana; Uenal, Hatice; Tumani, Hayrettin; Geissbühler, Yvonne; Tilson, Hugh

2015-05-01

The assessment and demonstration of a positive benefit-risk balance of a drug is a life-long process and includes specific data from preclinical, clinical development and post-launch experience. However, new integrative approaches are needed to enrich evidence from clinical trials and sponsor-initiated observational studies with information from multiple additional sources, including registry information and other existing observational data and, more recently, health-related administrative claims and medical records databases. To illustrate the value of this approach, this paper exemplifies such a cross-package approach to the area of multiple sclerosis, exploring also possible analytic strategies when using these multiple sources of information.

Trait synergisms and the rarity, extirpation, and extinction risk of desert fishes.

PubMed

Olden, Julian D; Poff, N LeRoy; Bestgen, Kevin R

2008-03-01

Understanding the causes and consequences of species extinctions is a central goal in ecology. Faced with the difficult task of identifying those species with the greatest need for conservation, ecologists have turned to using predictive suites of ecological and life-history traits to provide reasonable estimates of species extinction risk. Previous studies have linked individual traits to extinction risk, yet the nonadditive contribution of multiple traits to the entire extinction process, from species rarity to local extirpation to global extinction, has not been examined. This study asks whether trait synergisms predispose native fishes of the Lower Colorado River Basin (USA) to risk of extinction through their effects on rarity and local extirpation and their vulnerability to different sources of threat. Fish species with "slow" life histories (e.g., large body size, long life, and delayed maturity), minimal parental care to offspring, and specialized feeding behaviors are associated with smaller geographic distribution, greater frequency of local extirpation, and higher perceived extinction risk than that expected by simple additive effects of traits in combination. This supports the notion that trait synergisms increase the susceptibility of native fishes to multiple stages of the extinction process, thus making them prone to the multiple jeopardies resulting from a combination of fewer individuals, narrow environmental tolerances, and long recovery times following environmental change. Given that particular traits, some acting in concert, may differentially predispose native fishes to rarity, extirpation, and extinction, we suggest that management efforts in the Lower Colorado River Basin should be congruent with the life-history requirements of multiple species over large spatial and temporal scales.

Improving self-management of cancer risk factors, underscreening for cancer and depression among general practice patients: study protocol of a randomised controlled trial

PubMed Central

Carey, Mariko; Sanson-Fisher, Rob; Oldmeadow, Christopher; Mansfield, Elise; Walsh, Justin

2016-01-01

Introduction General practitioners have a key role in reducing cancer risk factors, screening for cancer and managing depression. Given the time-limited nature of consultations, a new and more time-efficient approach is needed which addresses multiple health needs simultaneously, and encourages patient self-management to address health risks. The aim of this cluster randomised controlled trial is to test the effectiveness of a patient feedback intervention in improving patient self-management of health needs related to smoking, risky alcohol consumption and underscreening for cancers at 1 month follow-up. Methods and analysis Adult general practice patients will be invited to participate in a baseline survey to assess cancer risk factors, screening needs and depression. A total of 360 participants identified by the baseline survey as having at least one health need (a self-reported cancer risk factor, underscreening for cancer, or an elevated depression score) will be randomised to an intervention or control group. Participants in the intervention group will receive tailored printed feedback summarising their identified health needs and recommended self-management actions to address these. All participants will be invited to complete a telephone interview 1 month following recruitment to assess self-management actions taken in relation to health needs identified in the baseline survey. Control group participants will receive tailored printed feedback on their identified health needs after their follow-up interview. A logistic regression model, with group allocation as the main predictor, will be used to assess the impact of the intervention on self-management actions. Ethical considerations and dissemination Participants identified as being at risk of depression will be advised to speak with their doctor. Results will be disseminated via publication in peer-reviewed journals. The study has been approved by the University of Newcastle Human Research Ethics Committee. Trial registration number ACTRN12616001443482. PMID:27864255

Motivation and drives in bottom-up developments in natural hazards management: multiple-use of adaptation strategies in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thaler, Thomas; Fuchs, Sven

2015-04-01

Losses from extreme hydrological events, such as recently experienced in Europe have focused the attention of policymakers as well as researchers on vulnerability to natural hazards. In parallel, the context of changing flood risks under climate and societal change is driving transformation in the role of the state in responsibility sharing and individual responsibilities for risk management and precaution. The new policy agenda enhances the responsibilities of local authorities and private citizens in hazard management and reduces the role of central governments. Within the objective is to place added responsibility on local organisations and citizens to determine locally-based strategies for risk reduction. A major challenge of modelling adaptation is to represent the complexity of coupled human-environmental systems and particularly the feedback loops between environmental dynamics and human decision-making processes on different scales. This paper focuses on bottom-up initiatives to flood risk management which are, by definition, different from the mainstream. These initiatives are clearly influenced (positively or negatively) by a number of factors, where the combination of these interdependences can create specific conditions that alter the opportunity for effective governance arrangements in a local scheme approach. In total, this study identified six general drivers which encourage the implementation of flood storages, such as direct relation to recent major flood frequency and history, the initiative of individual stakeholders (promoters), political pressures from outside (e.g. business companies, private households) and a strong solidarity attitude of municipalities and the stakeholders involved. Although partnership approach may be seen as an 'optimal' solution for flood risk management, in practice there are many limitations and barriers in establishing these collaborations and making them effective (especially in the long term) with the consequences that rhetoric may not be matched by reality. Key words: catchment; land use management; flood risk management; partnership; power dynamics

Personalizing guidelines for diabetes management: twilight or dawn of the expert?

PubMed

Paschou, Stavroula A; Leslie, Richard David

2013-07-10

This opinion article on the management of type 2 diabetes considers the old and new format of guidelines and critical changes in the character of such guidelines. We highlight limitations of the guidelines and make recommendations for how treatment can be more personalised. Published guidelines for the management of adult-onset non-insulin requiring diabetes have adopted a formulaic approach to patient management that can be overseen centrally and delivered by personnel with limited training. Recently, guidelines have taken a patient-centered, multiple risk-factor approach. Importantly, local funding issues are considered, but drive the final action and not the decision-making process. The nature of the disease can be determined by laboratory tests, including screening for diabetes-associated autoantibodies. The strategy remains step-up, with intensification of drug or insulin dose. As with past guidelines, there is an assumption that in each patient with type 2 diabetes, metformin is used initially, but targets and therapies then veer in different directions to create a matrix of options based on the features and responses of each individual. Factors to consider include: (A)ge, (B)ody weight, (C)omplications and co-morbidities, Diabetes (D)uration and (E)xpense, but also patient preference and patient response. Guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes have important limitations and a patient-centered, multiple target, multiple therapy approach is proposed.

Multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods research of nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Handing; Liang, Xiaoyu; Zhang, Xiaoming; Yang, Jianfeng; Liu, Weidong; Lei, Dina

2017-01-01

2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant severe accident was caused by both earthquake and tsunami, which results in large amount of radioactive nuclides release. That accident has caused the radioactive contamination on the surrounding environment. Although this accident probability is extremely small, once such an accident happens that is likely to release a lot of radioactive materials into the environment, and cause radiation contamination. Therefore, studying accidents consequences is important and essential to improve nuclear power plant design and management. Level 3 PSA methods of nuclear power plant can be used to analyze radiological consequences, and quantify risk to the public health effects around nuclear power plants. Based on multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA methods studies of nuclear power plant, and the description of the multiple external hazards compound level 3 PSA technology roadmap and important technical elements, as well as taking a coastal nuclear power plant as the reference site, we analyzed the impact of off-site consequences of nuclear power plant severe accidents caused by multiple external hazards. At last we discussed the impact of off-site consequences probabilistic risk studies and its applications under multiple external hazards compound conditions, and explained feasibility and reasonableness of emergency plans implementation.

Sequencing of disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a theoretical approach to optimizing treatment.

PubMed

Grand'Maison, Francois; Yeung, Michael; Morrow, Sarah A; Lee, Liesly; Emond, Francois; Ward, Brian J; Laneuville, Pierre; Schecter, Robyn

2018-04-18

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease which usually begins in young adulthood and is a lifelong condition. Individuals with MS experience physical and cognitive disability resulting from inflammation and demyelination in the central nervous system. Over the past decade, several disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved for the management of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), which is the most prevalent phenotype. The chronic nature of the disease and the multiple treatment options make benefit-risk-based sequencing of therapy essential to ensure optimal care. The efficacy and short- and long-term risks of treatment differ for each DMT due to their different mechanism of action on the immune system. While transitioning between DMTs, in addition to immune system effects, factors such as age, disease duration and severity, disability status, monitoring requirements, preference for the route of administration, and family planning play an important role. Determining a treatment strategy is therefore challenging as it requires careful consideration of the differences in efficacy, safety and tolerability, while at the same time minimizing risks of immune modulation. In this review, we discuss a sequencing approach for treating RRMS, with importance given to the long-term risks and individual preference when devising a treatment plan. Evidence-based strategies to counter breakthrough disease are also addressed.

Industrial water resources management based on violation risk analysis of the total allowable target on wastewater discharge.

PubMed

Yue, Wencong; Cai, Yanpeng; Xu, Linyu; Yang, Zhifeng; Yin, Xin'An; Su, Meirong

2017-07-11

To improve the capabilities of conventional methodologies in facilitating industrial water allocation under uncertain conditions, an integrated approach was developed through the combination of operational research, uncertainty analysis, and violation risk analysis methods. The developed approach can (a) address complexities of industrial water resources management (IWRM) systems, (b) facilitate reflections of multiple uncertainties and risks of the system and incorporate them into a general optimization framework, and (c) manage robust actions for industrial productions in consideration of water supply capacity and wastewater discharging control. The developed method was then demonstrated in a water-stressed city (i.e., the City of Dalian), northeastern China. Three scenarios were proposed according to the city's industrial plans. The results indicated that in the planning year of 2020 (a) the production of civilian-used steel ships and machine-made paper & paperboard would reduce significantly, (b) violation risk of chemical oxygen demand (COD) discharge under scenario 1 would be the most prominent, compared with those under scenarios 2 and 3, (c) the maximal total economic benefit under scenario 2 would be higher than the benefit under scenario 3, and (d) the production of rolling contact bearing, rail vehicles, and commercial vehicles would be promoted.

Suboptimal management of cardiovascular risk factors in coronary heart disease patients in primary care occurs particularly in women.

PubMed

Driscoll, A; Beauchamp, A; Lyubomirsky, G; Demos, L; McNeil, J; Tonkin, A

2011-10-01

Patients with established coronary heart disease (CHD) are at the highest risk of further events. Despite proven therapies, secondary prevention is often suboptimal. General practitioners (GPs) are in an ideal position to improve secondary prevention. To contrast management of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with established CHD in primary care to those in clinical guidelines and according to gender. GPs throughout Australia were approached to participate in a programme incorporating a disease management software (mdCare) program. Participating practitioners (1258 GPs) recruited individual patients whose cardiovascular risk factor levels were measured. The mdCare programme included 12,509 patients (58% male) diagnosed with CHD. Their mean age was 71.7years (intra-quartile range 66-78) for men and 74years (intra-quartile range 68-80) for women. Low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol was above target levels in 69% (2032) of women compared with 58% (2487) in men (P < 0.0001). There was also a higher proportion of women with total cholesterol above target levels (76%, 3592) compared with men (57%, 3787) (P < 0.0001). In patients who were prescribed lipid-lowering medication, 53% (2504) of men and 72% (2285) of women continued to have a total cholesterol higher than recommended target levels (P < 0.0001). Overall, over half (52%, 6538) had at least five cardiovascular risk factors (55% (2914) in women and 50% (3624) in men, P < 0.0001). This study found less intensive management of cardiovascular risk factors in CHD patients, particularly among women, despite equivalent cardiovascular risk. This study has shown that these patients have multiple risk factors where gender also plays a role. © 2011 The Authors. Internal Medicine Journal © 2011 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

[Development of whole process quality control and management system of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces based on traditional Chinese medicine quality tree].

PubMed

Yu, Wen-Kang; Dong, Ling; Pei, Wen-Xuan; Sun, Zhi-Rong; Dai, Jun-Dong; Wang, Yun

2017-12-01

The whole process quality control and management of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) decoction pieces is a system engineering, involving the base environment, seeds and seedlings, harvesting, processing and other multiple steps, so the accurate identification of factors in TCM production process that may induce the quality risk, as well as reasonable quality control measures are very important. At present, the concept of quality risk is mainly concentrated in the aspects of management and regulations, etc. There is no comprehensive analysis on possible risks in the quality control process of TCM decoction pieces, or analysis summary of effective quality control schemes. A whole process quality control and management system for TCM decoction pieces based on TCM quality tree was proposed in this study. This system effectively combined the process analysis method of TCM quality tree with the quality risk management, and can help managers to make real-time decisions while realizing the whole process quality control of TCM. By providing personalized web interface, this system can realize user-oriented information feedback, and was convenient for users to predict, evaluate and control the quality of TCM. In the application process, the whole process quality control and management system of the TCM decoction pieces can identify the related quality factors such as base environment, cultivation and pieces processing, extend and modify the existing scientific workflow according to their own production conditions, and provide different enterprises with their own quality systems, to achieve the personalized service. As a new quality management model, this paper can provide reference for improving the quality of Chinese medicine production and quality standardization. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Synthesis of common management concerns associated with dam removal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tullos, Desiree D.; Collins, Mathias J.; Bellmore, J. Ryan; Bountry, Jennifer A.; Connolly, Patrick J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Wilcox, Andrew C.

2016-01-01

Managers make decisions regarding if and how to remove dams in spite of uncertainty surrounding physical and ecological responses, and stakeholders often raise concerns about certain negative effects, regardless of whether or not these concerns are warranted at a particular site. We used a dam-removal science database supplemented with other information sources to explore seven frequently-raised concerns, herein Common Management Concerns (CMCs). We investigate the occurrence of these concerns and the contributing biophysical controls. The CMCs addressed are: degree and rate of reservoir sediment erosion, excessive channel incision upstream of reservoirs, downstream sediment aggradation, elevated downstream turbidity, drawdown impacts on local water infrastructure, colonization of reservoir sediments by non-native plants, and expansion of invasive fish. Biophysical controls emerged for some of the concerns, providing managers with information to assess whether a given concern is likely to occur at a site. To fully assess CMC risk, managers should concurrently evaluate site conditions and identify the ecosystem or human uses that will be negatively affected if the biophysical phenomenon producing the CMC occurs. We show how many CMCs have one or more controls in common, facilitating the identification of multiple risks at a site, and demonstrate why CMC risks should be considered in the context of other factors like natural watershed variability and disturbance history.

Space Transportation System Liftoff Debris Mitigation Process Overview

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mitchell, Michael; Riley, Christopher

2011-01-01

Liftoff debris is a top risk to the Space Shuttle Vehicle. To manage the Liftoff debris risk, the Space Shuttle Program created a team with in the Propulsion Systems Engineering & Integration Office. The Shutt le Liftoff Debris Team harnesses the Systems Engineering process to i dentify, assess, mitigate, and communicate the Liftoff debris risk. T he Liftoff Debris Team leverages off the technical knowledge and expe rtise of engineering groups across multiple NASA centers to integrate total system solutions. These solutions connect the hardware and ana lyses to identify and characterize debris sources and zones contribut ing to the Liftoff debris risk. The solutions incorporate analyses sp anning: the definition and modeling of natural and induced environmen ts; material characterizations; statistical trending analyses, imager y based trajectory analyses; debris transport analyses, and risk asse ssments. The verification and validation of these analyses are bound by conservative assumptions and anchored by testing and flight data. The Liftoff debris risk mitigation is managed through vigilant collab orative work between the Liftoff Debris Team and Launch Pad Operation s personnel and through the management of requirements, interfaces, r isk documentation, configurations, and technical data. Furthermore, o n day of launch, decision analysis is used to apply the wealth of ana lyses to case specific identified risks. This presentation describes how the Liftoff Debris Team applies Systems Engineering in their proce sses to mitigate risk and improve the safety of the Space Shuttle Veh icle.

Evolution of diabetes management in the 21st century: the contribution of quality of life measurement in Asians.

PubMed

Goh, Shereen Giap Kah; Rusli, Bin Nordin; Khalid, Bin Abdul Kadir

2015-01-01

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a complex and chronic disease with multiple complications leading to increased mortality and poor quality of life. Current studies have shown that lowering glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) confers protection against microvascular complications. However, with more intensive glucose control to achieve HbA1c of less than 6.5%, there seems to be a significant increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular events. The current recommendation worldwide is for "tailoring" of DM management to risk and also quality of Life (QOL) which is a crucial component in determining the success or failure of DM management. In Asia, DM has become a health crisis but there is a lack of QOL assessment tool that is specific for Asians with wide spectrum of ethnicity, languages, religions and socio-economic differences. In this review, we discuss the evolution of DM management over the decade and the issues pertaining to QOL among people living with diabetes in Asia.

Medical equipment management strategies.

PubMed

Wang, Binseng; Furst, Emanuel; Cohen, Ted; Keil, Ode R; Ridgway, Malcolm; Stiefel, Robert

2006-01-01

Clinical engineering professionals need to continually review and improve their management strategies in order to keep up with improvements in equipment technology, as well as with increasing expectations of health care organizations. In the last 20 years, management strategies have evolved from the initial obsession with electrical safety to flexible criteria that fit the individual institution's needs. Few hospitals, however, are taking full advantage of the paradigm shift offered by the evolution of joint Commission standards. The focus should be on risks caused by equipment failure, rather than on equipment with highest maintenance demands. Furthermore, it is not enough to consider risks posed by individual pieces of equipment to individual patients. It is critical to anticipate the impact of an equipment failure on larger groups of patients, especially when dealing with one of a kind, sophisticated pieces of equipment that are required to provide timely and accurate diagnoses for immediate therapeutic decisions or surgical interventions. A strategy for incorporating multiple criteria to formulate appropriate management strategies is provided in this article.

Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (I): A citizen-science based risk model for bovine brucellosis transmission from elk to cattle.

PubMed

Kauffman, Mandy; Peck, Dannele; Scurlock, Brandon; Logan, Jim; Robinson, Timothy; Cook, Walt; Boroff, Kari; Schumaker, Brant

2016-09-15

Livestock producers and state wildlife agencies have used multiple management strategies to control bovine brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). However, spillover from elk to domestic bison and cattle herds continues to occur. Although knowledge is increasing about the location and behavior of elk in the SGYA, predicting spatiotemporal overlap between elk and cattle requires locations of livestock operations and observations of elk contact by producers. We queried all producers in a three-county area using a questionnaire designed to determine location of cattle and whether producers saw elk comingle with their animals. This information was used to parameterize a spatially-explicit risk model to estimate the number of elk expected to overlap with cattle during the brucellosis transmission risk period. Elk-cattle overlap was predicted in areas further from roads and forest boundaries in areas with wolf activity, with higher slopes, lower hunter densities, and where the cost-distance to feedgrounds was very low or very high. The model was used to estimate the expected number of years until a cattle reactor will be detected, under alternative management strategies. The model predicted cattle cases every 4.28 years in the highest risk herd unit, a higher prediction than the one case in 26 years we have observed. This difference likely indicates that ongoing management strategies are at least somewhat effective in preventing potential elk-cattle brucellosis transmission in these areas. Using this model, we can infer the expected effectiveness of various management strategies for reducing the risk of brucellosis spillover from elk to cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stop Stroke: development of an innovative intervention to improve risk factor management after stroke.

PubMed

Redfern, Judith; Rudd, Anthony D; Wolfe, Charles D A; McKevitt, Christopher

2008-08-01

Stroke survivors are at high risk of stroke recurrence yet current strategies to reduce recurrence risk are sub-optimal. The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) have proposed a framework for developing and evaluating complex interventions, such as community management of stroke secondary prevention. The Framework outlines a five-phased approach from theory through to implementation of effective interventions. This paper reports Phases I-III of the development of a novel intervention to improve risk factor management after stroke. The pre-clinical/theoretical phase entailed reviewing the literature and undertaking quantitative and qualitative studies to identify current practices and barriers to secondary prevention. In Phase I (modelling), findings were used to design an intervention with the potential to overcome barriers to effective stroke secondary prevention management. The feasibility of delivering the intervention and its acceptability were tested in the Phase II exploratory trial involving 25 stroke survivors and their general practitioners. This led to the development of the definitive risk factor management intervention. This comprises multiple components and involves using an on-going population stroke register to target patients, carers and health care professionals with tailored secondary prevention advice. Clinical, socio-demographic and service use data collected by the stroke register are transformed to provide an individualised secondary prevention package for patients, carers and health care professionals at three time points: within 10 weeks, 3 and 6 months post-stroke. The intervention is currently being evaluated in a randomised controlled trial. Further research is needed to test generalisability to other aspects of stroke management and for other chronic diseases. The MRC Framework for complex interventions provides a structured approach to guide the development of novel interventions in public health. Implications for practice in stroke secondary prevention will emerge when the results of our randomised controlled trial are published.

Managing hospitals in turbulent times: do organizational changes improve hospital survival?

PubMed Central

Lee, S Y; Alexander, J A

1999-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine (1) the degree to which organizational changes affected hospital survival; (2) whether core and peripheral organizational changes affected hospital survival differently; and (3) how simultaneous organizational changes affected hospital survival. DATA SOURCES: AHA Hospital Surveys, the Area Resource File, and the AHA Hospital Guides, Part B: Multihospital Systems. STUDY DESIGN: The study employed a longitudinal panel design. We followed changes in all community hospitals in the continental United States from 1981 through 1994. The dependent variable, hospital closure, was examined as a function of multiple changes in a hospital's core and peripheral structures as well as the hospital's organizational and environmental characteristics. Cox regression models were used to test the expectations that core changes increased closure risk while peripheral changes decreased such risk, and that simultaneous core and peripheral changes would lead to higher risk of closure. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Results indicated more peripheral than core changes in community hospitals. Overall, findings contradicted our expectations. Change in specialty, a core change, was beneficial for hospitals, because it reduced closure risk. The two most frequent peripheral changes, downsizing and leadership change, were positively associated with closure. Simultaneous organizational changes displayed a similar pattern: multiple core changes reduced closure risk, while multiple peripheral changes increased the risk. These patterns held regardless of the level of uncertainty in hospital environments. CONCLUSIONS: Organizational changes are not all beneficial for hospitals, suggesting that hospital leaders should be both cautious and selective in their efforts to turn their hospitals around. PMID:10536977

Molecular Mechanisms and Management of a Cutaneous Inflammatory Disorder: Psoriasis

PubMed Central

Cho, Dae Ho; Park, Hyun Jeong

2017-01-01

Psoriasis is a complex chronic inflammatory cutaneous disorder. To date, robust molecular mechanisms of psoriasis have been reported. Among diverse aberrant immunopathogenetic mechanisms, the current model emphasizes the role of Th1 and the IL-23/Th17 axis, skin-resident immune cells and major signal transduction pathways involved in psoriasis. The multiple genetic risk loci for psoriasis have been rapidly revealed with the advent of a novel technology. Moreover, identifying epigenetic modifications could bridge the gap between genetic and environmental risk factors in psoriasis. This review will provide a better understanding of the pathogenesis of psoriasis by unraveling the complicated interplay among immunological abnormalities, genetic risk foci, epigenetic modification and environmental factors of psoriasis. With advances in molecular biology, diverse new targets are under investigation to manage psoriasis. The recent advances in treatment modalities for psoriasis based on targeted molecules are also discussed. PMID:29232931

Medical management and strategies to prevent coronary artery disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Sheikh-Ali, Mae; Raheja, Prafull; Borja-Hart, Nancy

2013-01-01

Coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is associated with increased immediate and long-term mortality compared with patients without T2DM. The amplified incidence of CAD stems partly from the aggregation of multiple risk factors, such as obesity, dyslipidemia, and hypertension, which occur in this population. In addition, there appear to be increased forces at play at the molecular and vascular levels in these individuals, which is evidenced by the increased thrombosis and inflammation that is seen in those with diabetic atherosclerosis. Hence, there is a growing need to emphasize early and vigilant risk factor management in patients with T2DM to help reduce their burden of cardiovascular-related mortality. In this article, we review the primary and secondary prevention measures as well as the management of CAD in patients with T2DM.

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management

PubMed Central

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-01-01

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM3 ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs. PMID:27983713

Problem Formulation in Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) for Environmental Risk Management.

PubMed

Li, Yan; Thomas, Manoj; Osei-Bryson, Kweku-Muata; Levy, Jason

2016-12-15

With the growing popularity of data analytics and data science in the field of environmental risk management, a formalized Knowledge Discovery via Data Analytics (KDDA) process that incorporates all applicable analytical techniques for a specific environmental risk management problem is essential. In this emerging field, there is limited research dealing with the use of decision support to elicit environmental risk management (ERM) objectives and identify analytical goals from ERM decision makers. In this paper, we address problem formulation in the ERM understanding phase of the KDDA process. We build a DM³ ontology to capture ERM objectives and to inference analytical goals and associated analytical techniques. A framework to assist decision making in the problem formulation process is developed. It is shown how the ontology-based knowledge system can provide structured guidance to retrieve relevant knowledge during problem formulation. The importance of not only operationalizing the KDDA approach in a real-world environment but also evaluating the effectiveness of the proposed procedure is emphasized. We demonstrate how ontology inferencing may be used to discover analytical goals and techniques by conceptualizing Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) exposure shifts based on a multilevel analysis of the level of urbanization (and related economic activity) and the degree of Socio-Economic Deprivation (SED) at the local neighborhood level. The HAPs case highlights not only the role of complexity in problem formulation but also the need for integrating data from multiple sources and the importance of employing appropriate KDDA modeling techniques. Challenges and opportunities for KDDA are summarized with an emphasis on environmental risk management and HAPs.

Risk management of a fund for natural disasters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flores, C.

2003-04-01

Mexico is a country which has to deal with several natural disaster risks: earthquakes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, floods, slides, wild fires, extreme temperatures, etc. In order to reduce the country's vulnerability to the impact of these natural disasters and to support rapid recovery when they occur, the government established in 1996 Mexico's Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN). Since its creation, its resources have been insufficient to meet all government obligations. The aim of this project is the development of a dynamic strategy to optimise the management of a fund for natural disasters starting from the example of FONDEN. The problem of budgetary planning is being considered for the modelling. We control the level of the fund's cash (R_t)0<= t0 at t=0 and then we try to pull at every moment the process to this objective. Multifractal models in geophysics are physically based stochastic models. A multiplicative cascade model fitted to a data set can be used for generation of synthetic sequences that resemble the original data in terms of its scaling properties. Since recent years, uncertainty concepts based on multifractal fields are being applied to the development of techniques to calculate marginal and conditional probabilities of an extreme rainfall event in a determined zone. As initial point to the development of the model, a multifractal model for extreme rainfall events will be used as part of the input for the stochastic control model. A theme for further research is linking more warning systems to the model. Keywords: risk management, stochastic control, multifractal measures, multiplicative cascades, heavy rainfall events.

Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnafous, L.

2017-12-01

Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

Assistive technologies for self-managed pressure ulcer prevention in spinal cord injury: a scoping review.

PubMed

Tung, James Y; Stead, Brent; Mann, William; Ba'Pham; Popovic, Milos R

2015-01-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) present a persistent and costly problem. Continuing effort in developing new technologies that support self-managed care is an important prevention strategy. Specifically, the aims of this scoping review are to review the key concepts and factors related to self-managed prevention of PUs in individuals with SCI and appraise the technologies available to assist patients in self-management of PU prevention practices. There is broad consensus that sustaining long-term adherence to prevention regimens is a major concern. Recent literature highlights the interactions between behavioral and physiological risk factors. We identify four technology categories that support self-management: computer-based educational technologies demonstrated improved short-term gains in knowledge (2 studies), interface pressure mapping technologies demonstrated improved adherence to pressure-relief schedules up to 3 mo (5 studies), electrical stimulation confirmed improvements in tissue tolerance after 8 wk of training (3 studies), and telemedicine programs demonstrated improvements in independence and reduced hospital visits over 6 mo (2 studies). Overall, self-management technologies demonstrated low-to-moderate effectiveness in addressing a subset of risk factors. However, the effectiveness of technologies in preventing PUs is limited due to a lack of incidence reporting. In light of the key findings, we recommend developing integrated technologies that address multiple risk factors.

Copeptin in acute coronary syndromes and heart failure management: State of the art and future directions.

PubMed

Schurtz, Guillaume; Lamblin, Nicolas; Bauters, Christophe; Goldstein, Patrick; Lemesle, Gilles

2015-01-01

Over the past two decades, the use of multiple biomarkers has changed cardiovascular disease management. Recently, several trials have assessed the diagnostic and prognostic performances of copeptin, especially in patients with heart failure or acute coronary syndromes. Primary results are interesting, with copeptin looking promising for: the management of patients who present at emergency departments early after chest pain onset and the risk stratification of patients with heart failure. The purpose of this article is to review the data on the place of copeptin in the management of patients with chest pain or heart failure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Racial disparities in BRCA testing and cancer risk management across a population-based sample of young breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Cragun, Deborah; Weidner, Anne; Lewis, Courtney; Bonner, Devon; Kim, Jongphil; Vadaparampil, Susan T; Pal, Tuya

2017-07-01

Breast cancer (BC) disparities may widen with genomic advances. The authors compared non-Hispanic white (NHW), black, and Hispanic BC survivors for 1) cancer risk-management practices among BRCA carriers and 2) provider discussion and receipt of genetic testing. A population-based sample of NHW, black, and Hispanic women who had been diagnosed with invasive BC at age 50 years or younger from 2009 to 2012 were recruited through the state cancer registry. Multiple logistic regression was used to compare cancer risk-management practices in BRCA carriers and associations of demographic and clinical variables with provider discussion and receipt of testing. Of 1622 participants, 159 of 440 (36.1%) black women, 579 of 897 (64.5%) NHW women, 58 of 117 (49.6%) Spanish-speaking Hispanic women, and 116 of 168 (69%) English-speaking Hispanic women underwent BRCA testing, of whom 90 had a pathogenic BRCA mutation identified. Among BRCA carriers, the rates of risk-reducing mastectomy and risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy were significantly lower among black women compared with Hispanic and NHW women after controlling for clinical and demographic variables (P = .025 and P = .008, respectively). Compared with NHW women, discussion of genetic testing with a provider was 16 times less likely among black women (P < .0001) and nearly 2 times less likely among Spanish-speaking Hispanic women (P = .04) after controlling for clinical and sociodemographic factors. The current results suggest that the rates of risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy are lower among black BRCA carriers compared with their Hispanic and NHW counterparts, which is concerning because benefits from genetic testing arise from cancer risk-management practice options. Furthermore, lower BRCA testing rates among blacks may partially be because of a lower likelihood of provider discussion. Future studies are needed to improve cancer risk identification and management practices across all populations to prevent the widening of disparities. Cancer 2017;123:2497-05. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Risk across disciplines: An interdisciplinary examination of water and drought risk in South-Central Oklahoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.; Towler, E.; McPherson, R. A.

2013-12-01

Drought is a challenge faced by communities across the United States, exacerbated by growing demands on water resources and climate variability and change. The Arbuckle-Simpson Aquifer (ASA) in south-central Oklahoma, situated in the heart of the Chickasaw Nation, is the state's only sole-source groundwater basin and sustains the Blue River, the state's only free-flowing river. The recent comprehensive hydrological studies of the aquifer indicate the need for sustainable management of the amount of water extracted. However, the question of how to deal with that management in the face of increasing drought vulnerability, diverse demands, and climate variability and change remains. Water management carries a further imperative to be inclusive of tribal and non-tribal interests. To examine this question, we are conducting an investigation of drought risk from multiple disciplines. Anthropological data comes from stakeholder interviews that were designed to investigate conflict over water management by understanding how people perceive risk differently based on different opinions about the structure of the resource, varying levels of trust in authorities, and unequal access to resources. . The Cultural Theory of Risk is used to explain how people view risks as part of their worldviews and why people who hold different worldviews disagree about risks associated with water availability. Meteorological analyses of longitudinal data indicate periods of drought that are noted in stakeholder interviews. Analysis of stream gauge data investigates the influence of climate variability on local hydrologic impacts, such as changing groundwater levels and streamflows, that are relevant to planning and management decisions in the ASA. Quantitative assessment of future drought risk and associated uncertainty and their effect on type and scale of future economic and social impacts are achieved by combining elements of statistical and dynamical downscaling to improve predictions of local impacts using Hybrid Statistical-Dynamical Downscaling Technique.

Inhalation Anthrax: Dose Response and Risk Analysis

PubMed Central

Thran, Brandolyn; Morse, Stephen S.; Hugh-Jones, Martin; Massulik, Stacey

2008-01-01

The notion that inhalation of a single Bacillus anthracis spore is fatal has become entrenched nearly to the point of urban legend, in part because of incomplete articulation of the scientific basis for microbial risk assessment, particularly dose-response assessment. Risk analysis (ie, risk assessment, risk communication, risk management) necessitates transparency: distinguishing scientific facts, hypotheses, judgments, biases in interpretations, and potential misinformation. The difficulty in achieving transparency for biothreat risk is magnified by misinformation and poor characterization of both dose-response relationships and the driving mechanisms that cause susceptibility or resistance to disease progression. Regrettably, this entrenchment unnecessarily restricts preparedness planning to a single response scenario: decontaminate until no spores are detectable in air, water, or on surfaces—essentially forcing a zero-tolerance policy inconsistent with the biology of anthrax. We present evidence about inhalation anthrax dose-response relationships, including reports from multiple studies documenting exposures insufficient to cause inhalation anthrax in laboratory animals and humans. The emphasis of the article is clarification about what is known from objective scientific evidence for doses of anthrax spores associated with survival and mortality. From this knowledge base, we discuss the need for future applications of more formal risk analysis processes to guide development of alternative non-zero criteria or standards based on science to inform preparedness planning and other risk management activities. PMID:18582166

Identifying mismatches between institutional perceptions of water-related risk drivers and water management strategies in three river basin areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Räsänen, Aleksi; Juhola, Sirkku; Monge Monge, Adrián; Käkönen, Mira; Kanninen, Markku; Nygren, Anja

2017-07-01

Water-related risks and vulnerabilities are driven by variety of stressors, including climate and land use change, as well as changes in socio-economic positions and political landscapes. Hence, water governance, which addresses risks and vulnerabilities, should target multiple stressors. We analyze the institutional perceptions of the drivers and strategies for managing water-related risks and vulnerabilities in three regionally important river basin areas located in Finland, Mexico, and Laos. Our analysis is based on data gathered through participatory workshops and complemented by qualitative content analysis of relevant policy documents. The identified drivers and proposed risk reduction strategies showed the multidimensionality and context-specificity of water-related risks and vulnerabilities across study areas. Most of the identified drivers were seen to increase risks, but some of the drivers were positive trends, and drivers also included also policy instruments that can both increase or decrease risks. Nevertheless, all perceived drivers were not addressed with suggested risk reduction strategies. In particular, most of the risk reduction strategies were incremental adjustments, although many of the drivers classified as most important were large-scale trends, such as climate change, land use changes and increase in foreign investments. We argue that there is a scale mismatch between the identified drivers and suggested strategies, which questions the opportunity to manage the drivers by single-scale incremental adjustments. Our study suggests that for more sustainable risk and vulnerability reduction, the root causes of water-related risks and vulnerabilities should be addressed through adaptive multi-scale governance that carefully considers the context-specificity and the multidimensionality of the associated drivers and stressors.

Long-term treatment risks in multiple sclerosis: risk knowledge and risk perception in a large cohort of mitoxantrone-treated patients.

PubMed

Hofmann, A; Stellmann, J P; Kasper, J; Ufer, F; Elias, W G; Pauly, I; Repenthin, J; Rosenkranz, T; Weber, T; Köpke, S; Heesen, C

2013-06-01

Balancing treatment benefits and risks is part of a shared decision-making process before initiating any treatment in multiple sclerosis (MS). Patients understand, appreciate and profit from evidence-based patient information (EBPI). While these processes are well known, long-term risk awareness and risk processing of patients has not been studied. Mitoxantrone treatment in MS is associated with long-term major potential harms - leukaemia (LK) and cardiotoxicity (CT). The risk knowledge and perception among patients currently or previously treated with mitoxantrone is unknown. The objective of this article is to conduct a retrospective cohort study in greater Hamburg, Germany, to estimate risk awareness and perception in MS patients treated with mitoxantrone. MS patients with at least one dose of mitoxantrone between 1991 and 2010 from six major MS centres in greater Hamburg received a questionnaire assessing risk awareness and perception as well as a written EBPI about mitoxantrone-associated LK and CT. Fifty-one per cent in the cohort of n = 575 patients returned the questionnaire. Forty per cent correctly estimated the risk of LK (CT 16%); 56% underestimated the risk (CT 82%). Reading the information increased the accuracy of LK risk estimation, and patients did not report an increase of worries. The EBPI was appreciated and recommended by 85%. Risk awareness of mitoxantrone-treated patients is insufficient, but can be increased by EBPI without increasing worries. Continued patient information during and after treatment should be implemented in management algorithms.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

High Risk, but Also High Potential: The Plight and the Promise of Children with Attention Deficit Disorders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whalen, Carol K.

In a discussion of children with attention deficit disorders (ADD), a nutritional metaphor is applied to make the following four observations: (1) hyperactivity requires multiple interventions; (2) treatment must be individualized; (3) management of ADD is a lifelong endeavor; and (4) evaluation must be multidimensional. Children with ADD are…

Modeling fuel treatment leverage: Encounter rates, risk reduction, and suppression cost impacts

Treesearch

Matthew P. Thompson; Karin L. Riley; Dan Loeffler; Jessica R. Haas

2017-01-01

The primary theme of this study is the cost-effectiveness of fuel treatments at multiple scales of investment. We focused on the nexus of fuel management and suppression response planning, designing spatial fuel treatment strategies to incorporate landscape features that provide control opportunities that are relevant to fire operations. Our analysis explored the...

The Counseling Center: An Undervalued Resource in Recruitment, Retention, and Risk Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bishop, John B.

2010-01-01

A primary responsibility for directors of college and university counseling centers is to explain to various audiences the multiple ways such units are of value to their institutions. This article reviews the history of how counseling center directors have been encouraged to develop and describe the work of their centers. Often overlooked are the…

[Endovascular interventions for multiple trauma].

PubMed

Kinstner, C; Funovics, M

2014-09-01

In recent years interventional radiology has significantly changed the management of injured patients with multiple trauma. Currently nearly all vessels can be reached within a reasonably short time with the help of specially preshaped catheters and guide wires to achieve bleeding control of arterial und venous bleeding. Whereas bleeding control formerly required extensive open surgery, current interventional methods allow temporary vessel occlusion (occlusion balloons), permanent embolization and stenting. In injured patients with multiple trauma preinterventional procedural planning is performed with the help of multidetector computed tomography whenever possible. Interventional radiology not only allows minimization of therapeutic trauma but also a considerably shorter treatment time. Interventional bleeding control has developed into a standard method in the management of vascular trauma of the chest and abdomen as well as in vascular injuries of the upper and lower extremities when open surgical access is associated with increased risk. Additionally, pelvic trauma, vascular trauma of the superior thoracic aperture and parenchymal arterial lacerations of organs that can be at least partially preserved are primarily managed by interventional methods. In an interdisciplinary setting interventional radiology provides a safe and efficient means of rapid bleeding control in nearly all vascular territories in addition to open surgical access.

Creating a framework for the prioritization of biosecurity risks to the New Zealand dairy industry.

PubMed

Muellner, P; Hodges, D; Ahlstrom, C; Newman, M; Davidson, R; Pfeiffer, D; Marshall, J; Morley, C

2018-03-25

The New Zealand dairy sector relies on robust biosecurity measures to control and mitigate a wide range of threats to the industry. To optimize the prioritization of organisms and manage the risk they pose to the sector in a transparent and credible way, the Dairy Biosecurity Risk Evaluation Framework (D-BRiEF) was developed. This comprehensive framework was specifically designed for decision support, using a standardized approach to address the full spectrum of biosecurity threats to the sector, including exotic and endemic animal disease organisms, pest plants and insects. D-BRiEF is underpinned by three main processes, namely (i) hazard identification; (ii) multicriteria risk assessment; and (iii) communication for risk management. Expert knowledge and empirical data, including associated uncertainty, are harnessed in a standardized format. Results feed into a probability-impact model that was developed in close collaboration with dairy sector economists to provide overall comparative 10-year quantitative economic impact estimates for each assessed risk organism. A description of the overarching framework, which applies to diverse organism groups, is presented with detailed methodology on both endemic and exotic animal disease risk organisms. Examples of visual outputs are included, although actual ranking results are not reported due to industry confidentiality. D-BRiEF can provide a decision advantage to DairyNZ biosecurity risk managers and sector stakeholders by creating a transparent process that can be interrogated and updated at multiple levels to fully understand the layers of risk posed by different organisms. © 2018 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Summary of evidence-based guideline update: Evaluation and management of concussion in sports

PubMed Central

Giza, Christopher C.; Kutcher, Jeffrey S.; Ashwal, Stephen; Barth, Jeffrey; Getchius, Thomas S.D.; Gioia, Gerard A.; Gronseth, Gary S.; Guskiewicz, Kevin; Mandel, Steven; Manley, Geoffrey; McKeag, Douglas B.; Thurman, David J.; Zafonte, Ross

2013-01-01

Objective: To update the 1997 American Academy of Neurology (AAN) practice parameter regarding sports concussion, focusing on 4 questions: 1) What factors increase/decrease concussion risk? 2) What diagnostic tools identify those with concussion and those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early impairments, neurologic catastrophe, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 3) What clinical factors identify those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early postconcussion impairments, neurologic catastrophe, recurrent concussions, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 4) What interventions enhance recovery, reduce recurrent concussion risk, or diminish long-term sequelae? The complete guideline on which this summary is based is available as an online data supplement to this article. Methods: We systematically reviewed the literature from 1955 to June 2012 for pertinent evidence. We assessed evidence for quality and synthesized into conclusions using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation process. We used a modified Delphi process to develop recommendations. Results: Specific risk factors can increase or decrease concussion risk. Diagnostic tools to help identify individuals with concussion include graded symptom checklists, the Standardized Assessment of Concussion, neuropsychological assessments, and the Balance Error Scoring System. Ongoing clinical symptoms, concussion history, and younger age identify those at risk for postconcussion impairments. Risk factors for recurrent concussion include history of multiple concussions, particularly within 10 days after initial concussion. Risk factors for chronic neurobehavioral impairment include concussion exposure and APOE ε4 genotype. Data are insufficient to show that any intervention enhances recovery or diminishes long-term sequelae postconcussion. Practice recommendations are presented for preparticipation counseling, management of suspected concussion, and management of diagnosed concussion. PMID:23508730

Development and validation of risk profiles of West African rural communities facing multiple natural hazards

PubMed Central

Renaud, Fabrice G.; Kloos, Julia; Walz, Yvonne; Rhyner, Jakob

2017-01-01

West Africa has been described as a hotspot of climate change. The reliance on rain-fed agriculture by over 65% of the population means that vulnerability to climatic hazards such as droughts, rainstorms and floods will continue. Yet, the vulnerability and risk levels faced by different rural social-ecological systems (SES) affected by multiple hazards are poorly understood. To fill this gap, this study quantifies risk and vulnerability of rural communities to drought and floods. Risk is assessed using an indicator-based approach. A stepwise methodology is followed that combines participatory approaches with statistical, remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop community level vulnerability indices in three watersheds (Dano, Burkina Faso; Dassari, Benin; Vea, Ghana). The results show varying levels of risk profiles across the three watersheds. Statistically significant high levels of mean risk in the Dano area of Burkina Faso are found whilst communities in the Dassari area of Benin show low mean risk. The high risk in the Dano area results from, among other factors, underlying high exposure to droughts and rainstorms, longer dry season duration, low caloric intake per capita, and poor local institutions. The study introduces the concept of community impact score (CIS) to validate the indicator-based risk and vulnerability modelling. The CIS measures the cumulative impact of the occurrence of multiple hazards over five years. 65.3% of the variance in observed impact of hazards/CIS was explained by the risk models and communities with high simulated disaster risk generally follow areas with high observed disaster impacts. Results from this study will help disaster managers to better understand disaster risk and develop appropriate, inclusive and well integrated mitigation and adaptation plans at the local level. It fulfills the increasing need to balance global/regional assessments with community level assessments where major decisions against risk are actually taken and implemented. PMID:28248969

Managing the side effects of multiple sclerosis therapy: pharmacotherapy options for patients.

PubMed

Rommer, Paulus S; Zettl, Uwe K

2018-04-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an immune-mediated and neurodegenerative disease with an unpredictable outcome. Immune-modulatory treatment aims at decreasing long-term disability. With the increasing number of treatment options, it is essential to fully digest the possible side effects of the available therapeutics and to monitor patients is essential. Areas covered: All approved disease-modifying drugs (DMD) for MS are discussed in this review. Mode of action, adverse effects, reported risks for infections and malignancies, and pregnancy related issues are discussed in the review. The authors also provide suggestions for monitoring therapy. For all approved DMDs the pivotal studies have been included for possible side effects, as well as reports by health authorities. For this manuscript, PubMed was checked for reports on side effects for various drugs. Expert opinion: Treatment options in MS are manifold, each carrying different risks. The safety-risk profile for approved agents is favorable. Knowing and monitoring these possible side effects is essential to minimize risks associated with treatment. Presently, the long-term experience for some of these therapies is missing and this must be addressed.

Home Parenteral Nutrition: Fat Emulsions and Potential Complications.

PubMed

Mundi, Manpreet S; Salonen, Bradley R; Bonnes, Sara

2016-10-01

Since the first intravenous nutrition support attempt with olive oil in the 17th century, intravenous fat emulsions (IVFEs) have evolved to become an integral component in the management of patients receiving home parenteral nutrition (HPN). IVFEs serve as a calorie source and provide essential fatty acids (linoleic acid and α-linolenic acid) in patients unable to achieve adequate intake of these fatty acids through alternative means. However, IVFE use is also associated with multiple complications, including increased infection risk, liver disease, and systemic proinflammatory states. In the United States, most IVFEs are composed of 100% soybean oil; internationally multiple alternative IVFEs (using fish oil, olive oil, and long- and medium-chain triglycerides) are available or being developed. The hope is that these IVFEs will prevent, or decrease the risk of, some of the HPN-associated complications. The goal of this article is to review how IVFEs came into use, their composition and metabolism, options for IVFE delivery in HPN, benefits and risks of IVFE use, and strategies to minimize the risks associated with IVFE use in HPN patients. © 2016 American Society for Parenteral and Enteral Nutrition.

From the Children’s Oncology Group: Evidence-based recommendations for PEG-asparaginase nurse monitoring, hypersensitivity reaction management, and patient/family education

PubMed Central

Woods, Deborah; Winchester, Kari; Towerman, Alison; Gettinger, Katie; Carey, Christina; Timmermann, Karen; Langley, Rachel; Browne, Emily

2017-01-01

PEG-aspariginase is a backbone chemotherapy agent in pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia and in some non-Hodgkin lymphoma therapies. Nurses lack standardized guidelines for monitoring patients receiving PEG-asparaginase and for educating patients/families about hypersensitivity reaction risks. An electronic search of six databases using publication years 2000–2015 and multiple professional organizations and clinical resources was conducted. Evidence sources were reviewed for topic applicability. Each of the final 23 sources was appraised by two team members. The GRADE system was used to assign a quality and strength rating for each recommendation. Multiple recommendations were developed: four relating to nurse monitoring of patients during and after drug administration, eight guiding hypersensitivity reaction management, and four concerning patient/family educational content. These strong recommendations were based on moderate, low, or very-low quality evidence. Several recommendations relied upon generalized drug hypersensitivity guidelines. Additional research is needed to safely guide PEG-asparaginase monitoring, hypersensitivity reaction management and patient/family education. Nurses administering PEG-asparaginase play a critical role in the early identification and management of hypersensitivity reactions. PMID:28602129

Proactive conservation management of an island-endemic bird species in the face of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrison, S.A.; Sillett, T. Scott; Ghalambor, Cameron K.; Fitzpatrick, J.W.; Graber, D.M.; Bakker, V.J.; Bowman, R.; Collins, C.T.; Collins, P.W.; Delaney, K.S.; Doak, D.F.; Koenig, Walter D.; Laughrin, L.; Lieberman, A.A.; Marzluff, J.M.; Reynolds, M.D.; Scott, J.M.; Stallcup, J.A.; Vickers, W.; Boyce, W.M.

2011-01-01

Biodiversity conservation in an era of global change and scarce funding benefits from approaches that simultaneously solve multiple problems. Here, we discuss conservation management of the island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis), the only island-endemic passerine species in the continental United States, which is currently restricted to 250-square-kilometer Santa Cruz Island, California. Although the species is not listed as threatened by state or federal agencies, its viability is nonetheless threatened on multiple fronts. We discuss management actions that could reduce extinction risk, including vaccination, captive propagation, biosecurity measures, and establishing a second free-living population on a neighboring island. Establishing a second population on Santa Rosa Island may have the added benefit of accelerating the restoration and enhancing the resilience of that island's currently highly degraded ecosystem. The proactive management framework for island scrub-jays presented here illustrates how strategies for species protection, ecosystem restoration, and adaptation to and mitigation of climate change can converge into an integrated solution. ?? 2011 by American Institute of Biological Sciences. All rights reserved.

Disruptions in adaptation of sudden-onset and slow-onset risks: insights from a local case in the Andes of Peru for global policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Carey, Mark; Frey, Holger; Jurt, Christine; Mechler, Reinhard; Motschmann, Alina; Vicuña, Luis

2017-04-01

Climatic changes involve emergence and changes of both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. In the field of disaster risk reduction a solid range of strategies and measures has been developed to address sudden-onset risks such as floods, mass movements or storms. Comparably less experience is available for management of slow-onset risks. While, for instance, drought prone regions do have important knowledge how to cope with such conditions in other regions where climatic changes have induced new challenges and risks there is limited experience about how to adapt to slow-onset processes and risks. Examples are impacts of sea level rise in coastal regions or glacier shrinkage in mountain regions. The lack of understanding of how to address impacts from slow-onset processes has recently also been highlighted by the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM) acting under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In climate change science, practice and policy it is often assumed that risk management and climate change adaptation would see a seamless continuum when addressing both sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. Here we draw on recent experiences from the Andes of Peru showing that management of, and adaptation to combined sudden-onset and slow-onset impacts of climate change may involve serious social disruption. Carhuaz, a city in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru with a number of local communities pertaining to it, is affected by multiple effects of climate change and glacier shrinkage. After a flood event from glacier lake 513 a flood early warning system has been developed and installed. Multiple use and demand of glacier melt water makes water resource management a challenge and conflicts arise especially during the dry season when water is scarce. The drought at the end of 2016 over much of the tropical Andes has resulted in a situation where local communities started to vigorously and violently turn against the management of sudden-onset risks, more specifically against the technical components of the flood early warning system, because they believed that rainfall measuring and data transmitting devices keep the rains away. The background of this extraordinary local action is complex and rooted, among other, in cultural and historical experiences, mistrust in political and scientific institutions and local power relations. This local case, however, is highly instructive for global climate change policy. It shows that locally perceived priorities in terms of risks can be in great contrast to scientific knowledge and policies with profound implications for adaptation to sudden-onset and slow-onset risks. In fact, there may be a need to re-think current adaptation strategies which is also highly relevant in the context of current discussions on loss and damage related to negative effects of climate change. Furthermore, while the case certainly underlines the need to closely engage with local communities it also indicates where the limits of adaptation may be hit.

Societal transformation and adaptation necessary to manage dynamics in flood hazard and risk mitigation (TRANS-ADAPT)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Sven; Thaler, Thomas; Bonnefond, Mathieu; Clarke, Darren; Driessen, Peter; Hegger, Dries; Gatien-Tournat, Amandine; Gralepois, Mathilde; Fournier, Marie; Mees, Heleen; Murphy, Conor; Servain-Courant, Sylvie

2015-04-01

Facing the challenges of climate change, this project aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. This proposal assesses societal transformations from the perspective of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. Yet each risk mitigation measure is built on a narrative of exchanges and relations between people and therefore may condition the outputs. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this project will focus on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. The policy dimension of adaptation, predominantly decisions on the societal admissible level of vulnerability and risk, will be evaluated by a human-environment interaction approach using multiple methods and the assessment of social capacities of stakeholders across scales. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. In addressing the relationship between these dimensions of adaptation on different temporal and spatial scales, this project is both scientifically innovative and policy relevant, thereby supporting climate policy needs in Europe towards a concept of risk governance. Key words: climate change adaptation; transformation; flood risk management; resilience; vulnerability; innovative bottom-up developments; multifunctional use

Preeclampsia: A review of the pathogenesis and possible management strategies based on its pathophysiological derangements.

PubMed

El-Sayed, Amel A F

2017-10-01

This review is divided into three parts. The first part briefly describes the pathogenesis of preeclampsia. This is followed by reviewing previously reported management strategies of the disease based on its pathophysiological derangements. Finally, the author defines the safe and acceptable methods/medications that may be used to 'prevent' preeclampsia (in high risk patients) and those that may be used to 'treat' preeclampsia (meant to prolong the pregnancy in patients with established preeclampsia). The review concludes that multi-center trials are required to include multiple drugs in the same management protocol. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Dams, Hydrology and Risk in Future River Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wegner, D. L.

2017-12-01

Across America there are over 80,000 large to medium dams and globally the number is in excess of 800,000. Currently there are over 1,400 dams and diversion structures being planned or under construction globally. In addition to these documented dams there are thousands of small dams populating watersheds. Governments, agencies, native tribes, private owners and regulators all have a common interest in safe dams. Often dam safety is characterized as reducing structural risk while providing for maximum operational flexibility. In the 1970's there were a number of large and small dam failures in the United States. These failures prompted the federal government to issue voluntary dam safety guidelines. These guidelines were based on historic information incorporated into a risk assessment process to analyze, evaluate and manage risk with the goal to improve the quality of and support of dam management and safety decisions. We conclude that historic and new risks need to be integrated into dam management to insure adequate safety and operational flexibility. A recent assessment of the future role of dams in the United States premises that future costs such as maintenance or removal beyond the economic design life have not been factored into the long-term operations or relicensing of dams. The converging risks associated with aging water storage infrastructure, multiple dams within watersheds and uncertainty in demands policy revisions and an updated strategic approach to dam safety. Decisions regarding the future of dams in the United States may, in turn, influence regional water planning and management. Leaders in Congress and in the states need to implement a comprehensive national water assessment and a formal analysis of the role dams play in our water future. A research and national policy agenda is proposed to assess future impacts and the design, operation, and management of watersheds and dams.

Is Kidney Transplantation a Better State of CKD? Impact on Diagnosis and Management.

PubMed

Parajuli, Sandesh; Clark, Dana F; Djamali, Arjang

2016-09-01

Patients with CKD are at increased risk for cardiovascular events, hospitalizations, and mortality. Kidney transplantation (KTx) is the preferred treatment for end-stage kidney disease. Although comorbidities including anemia and bone and mineral disease improve or are even halted after KTx, kidney transplant recipients carry higher cardiovascular mortality risk than the general population, as well as an increased risk of infections, malignancies, fractures, and obesity. When comparing CKD with CKD after transplantation (CKD-T), the rate of decline of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) is significantly lower in CKD-T. Higher rate of decline of eGFR has been associated with increased risk of mortality. However, due to the significant increased risk of mortality due to cardiovascular events, infections, and malignancies, many kidney transplant recipients may not benefit of decline in the rate of eGFR. Patients with CKD-T are a unique subset of patients with multiple traditional and transplant-specific risk factors. Proper management and appropriate preventive health measures may improve long-term patient and allograft survival in patients with CKD-T. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Improving diabetes care: Multi-component CArdiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Strategies for People with Diabetes in South Asia - The CARRS Multi-center Translation Trial

PubMed Central

Shah, Seema; Singh, Kavita; Ali, Mohammed K.; Mohan, V.; Kadir, Muhammad Masood; Unnikrishnan, A.G.; Sahay, Rakesh Kumar; Varthakavi, Premlata; Dharmalingam, Mala; Viswanathan, Vijay; Masood, Qamar; Bantwal, Ganapathi; Khadgawat, Rajesh; Desai, Ankush; Sethi, Bipin Kumar; Shivashankar, Roopa; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Reddy, K. Srinath; Narayan, K.M. Venkat; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Tandon, Nikhil

2012-01-01

Aims Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in people with diabetes in South Asia. The CARRS translation trial tests the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and sustainability of a clinic-based multi-component CVD risk reduction intervention among people with diabetes in India and Pakistan. Methods We randomly assigned 1,146 adults with diabetes recruited from 10 urban clinic sites, to receive usual care by physicians or to receive an integrated multi-component CVD risk reduction intervention. The intervention involves electronic health record management, decision-support prompts to the healthcare team, and the support of a care coordinator to actively facilitate patient and provider adherence to evidence-based guidelines. The primary outcome is a composite of multiple CVD risk factor control (blood glucose and either blood pressure or cholesterol, or all three). Other outcomes include control of the individual CVD risk factors, process and patient-centered measures, cost-effectiveness, and acceptability/feasibility. Conclusion The CARRS translation trial tests a low-cost diabetes care delivery model in urban South Asia to achieve comprehensive cardio-metabolic disease case-management of high-risk patients (clinicaltrials.gov number: NCT01212328). PMID:23084280

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits—Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection

PubMed Central

Deveau, M.; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G.; Krewski, D.; Maier, A.; Niven, K. J.; Ripple, S.; Schulte, P. A.; Silk, J.; Urbanus, J. H.; Zalk, D. M.; Niemeier, R. W.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably—reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist. PMID:26099071

The Global Landscape of Occupational Exposure Limits--Implementation of Harmonization Principles to Guide Limit Selection.

PubMed

Deveau, M; Chen, C-P; Johanson, G; Krewski, D; Maier, A; Niven, K J; Ripple, S; Schulte, P A; Silk, J; Urbanus, J H; Zalk, D M; Niemeier, R W

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits (OELs) serve as health-based benchmarks against which measured or estimated workplace exposures can be compared. In the years since the introduction of OELs to public health practice, both developed and developing countries have established processes for deriving, setting, and using OELs to protect workers exposed to hazardous chemicals. These processes vary widely, however, and have thus resulted in a confusing international landscape for identifying and applying such limits in workplaces. The occupational hygienist will encounter significant overlap in coverage among organizations for many chemicals, while other important chemicals have OELs developed by few, if any, organizations. Where multiple organizations have published an OEL, the derived value often varies considerably-reflecting differences in both risk policy and risk assessment methodology as well as access to available pertinent data. This article explores the underlying reasons for variability in OELs, and recommends the harmonization of risk-based methods used by OEL-deriving organizations. A framework is also proposed for the identification and systematic evaluation of OEL resources, which occupational hygienists can use to support risk characterization and risk management decisions in situations where multiple potentially relevant OELs exist.

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM): novel biological insights and development of early treatment strategies

PubMed Central

Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y.

2011-01-01

Monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic plasma cell dyscrasias, with a propensity to progress to symptomatic MM. In recent years there have been improvements in risk stratification models (involving molecular markers) of both disorders, which have led to better understanding of the biology and probability of progression of MGUS and SMM. In the context of numerous molecular events and heterogeneous risk of progression, developing individualized risk profiles for patients with MGUS and SMM represents an ongoing challenge that has to be addressed by prospective clinical monitoring and extensive correlative science. In this review we discuss the current standard of care of patients with MGUS and SMM, the use of risk models, including flow cytometry and free-light chain analyses, for predicting risk of progression. Emerging evidence from molecular studies on MGUS and SMM, involving cytogenetics, gene-expression profiling, and microRNA as well as molecular imaging is described. Finally, future directions for improving individualized management of MGUS and SMM patients, as well as the potential for developing early treatment strategies designed to delay and prevent development of MM are discussed. PMID:21441462

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM): novel biological insights and development of early treatment strategies.

PubMed

Korde, Neha; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y; Landgren, Ola

2011-05-26

Monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) are asymptomatic plasma cell dyscrasias, with a propensity to progress to symptomatic MM. In recent years there have been improvements in risk stratification models (involving molecular markers) of both disorders, which have led to better understanding of the biology and probability of progression of MGUS and SMM. In the context of numerous molecular events and heterogeneous risk of progression, developing individualized risk profiles for patients with MGUS and SMM represents an ongoing challenge that has to be addressed by prospective clinical monitoring and extensive correlative science. In this review we discuss the current standard of care of patients with MGUS and SMM, the use of risk models, including flow cytometry and free-light chain analyses, for predicting risk of progression. Emerging evidence from molecular studies on MGUS and SMM, involving cytogenetics, gene-expression profiling, and microRNA as well as molecular imaging is described. Finally, future directions for improving individualized management of MGUS and SMM patients, as well as the potential for developing early treatment strategies designed to delay and prevent development of MM are discussed.

The road to treating smoldering multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Korde, Neha; Mailankody, Sham; Landgren, Ola

2014-09-01

The management of smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) has been a challenge to clinicians, ever since the condition was first characterized in 1980. While the risk of progression to symptomatic myeloma is greater for SMM (10% per year) compared to MGUS (1% per year), several SMM patients remain asymptomatic for years without evidence of disease progression. Early clinical trials focusing on early treatment of SMM have been equivocal with no clear benefit. However, the last decade has seen a greater understanding of the pathogenesis of plasma cell disorders, including SMM, and development of better therapeutics. A recent randomized trial has provided evidence of clinical benefit with early treatment of high-risk SMM. In this review, we summarize issues related to the early treatment of SMM including risk stratification and possible outcomes with therapy initiation. In the context of reviewing recent clinical trial data supporting early treatment, we define challenges faced by clinicians and provide future directions to the road to treating SMM. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Integrated Data & Analysis in Support of Informed and Transparent Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guivetchi, K.

2012-12-01

The California Water Plan includes a framework for improving water reliability, environmental stewardship, and economic stability through two initiatives - integrated regional water management to make better use of local water sources by integrating multiple aspects of managing water and related resources; and maintaining and improving statewide water management systems. The Water Plan promotes ways to develop a common approach for data standards and for understanding, evaluating, and improving regional and statewide water management systems, and for common ways to evaluate and select from alternative management strategies and projects. The California Water Plan acknowledges that planning for the future is uncertain and that change will continue to occur. It is not possible to know for certain how population growth, land use decisions, water demand patterns, environmental conditions, the climate, and many other factors that affect water use and supply may change by 2050. To anticipate change, our approach to water management and planning for the future needs to consider and quantify uncertainty, risk, and sustainability. There is a critical need for information sharing and information management to support over-arching and long-term water policy decisions that cross-cut multiple programs across many organizations and provide a common and transparent understanding of water problems and solutions. Achieving integrated water management with multiple benefits requires a transparent description of dynamic linkages between water supply, flood management, water quality, land use, environmental water, and many other factors. Water Plan Update 2013 will include an analytical roadmap for improving data, analytical tools, and decision-support to advance integrated water management at statewide and regional scales. It will include recommendations for linking collaborative processes with technical enhancements, providing effective analytical tools, and improving and sharing data and information. Specifically, this includes achieving better integration and consistency with other planning activities; obtaining consensus on quantitative deliverables; building a common conceptual understanding of the water management system; developing common schematics of the water management system; establishing modeling protocols and standards; and improving transparency and exchange of Water Plan information.

Flight Test Evaluation of an Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Management (UTM) Concept for Multiple Beyond-Visual-Line-of-Sight (BVLOS) Operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Marcus; Jung, Jaewoo; Rios, Joseph; Mercer, Joey; Homola, Jeffrey; Prevot, Thomas; Mulfinger, Daniel; Kopardekar, Parimal

2017-01-01

Many applications of small Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) have been envisioned. These include surveillance of key assets such as pipelines, rail, or electric wires, deliveries, search and rescue, traffic monitoring, videography, and precision agriculture. These operations are likely to occur in the same airspace in the presence of many static and dynamic constraints such as airports, and high wind areas. Therefore, operations of small UAS need to be managed to ensure safety and operation efficiency is maintained. NASA has advanced a concept for UAS Traffic Management (UTM) and has initiated a research effort to refine that concept and develop operational and system requirements. A UTM research platform is in development and flight test activities to evaluate core functions and key assumptions focusing exclusively on UAS operations in different environments are underway. This seminar will present lessons learned from a recent flight test focused on enabling operations of multiple UAS in lower-risk environments within and beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS).

System Safety in an IT Service Organization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parsons, Mike; Scutt, Simon

Within Logica UK, over 30 IT service projects are considered safetyrelated. These include operational IT services for airports, railway infrastructure asset management, nationwide radiation monitoring and hospital medical records services. A recent internal audit examined the processes and documents used to manage system safety on these services and made a series of recommendations for improvement. This paper looks at the changes and the challenges to introducing them, especially where the service is provided by multiple units supporting both safety and non-safety related services from multiple locations around the world. The recommendations include improvements to service agreements, improved process definitions, routine safety assessment of changes, enhanced call logging, improved staff competency and training, and increased safety awareness. Progress is reported as of today, together with a road map for implementation of the improvements to the service safety management system. A proposal for service assurance levels (SALs) is discussed as a way forward to cover the wide variety of services and associated safety risks.

Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2011-12-01

Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have explicit foci on (1) integrating physical and social vulnerability indicators across timescales, (2) analytical capacity to generate local scenarios of risk using both analogs and projections, (3) the communication of risk-based information, and (4) the support and governance of a collaborative framework for early warning structures across spatial scales.

Risk factors associated with patient and visitor violence in general hospitals: results of a multiple regression analysis.

PubMed

Hahn, Sabine; Müller, Marianne; Hantikainen, Virpi; Kok, Gerjo; Dassen, Theo; Halfens, Ruud J G

2013-03-01

Patient and visitor violence (PVV) is the most dangerous occupational hazard that health professionals must contend with. Staff training is recommended to prevent and manage PVV. There is minimal research focusing on risk factors associated with PVV in general hospital settings. Therefore, staff training is mostly based upon expert knowledge and knowledge from psychiatric and emergency settings. This study investigates health professionals' experiences with PVV in order to describe risk factors related to PVV that occur in general hospital settings. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was conducted in 2007. A university general hospital in Switzerland. 2495 out of 4845 health professionals participated (58.0% nurses & midwives, 19.2% medical doctors, 3.6% physical therapists, occupational therapists & nutritionists, 6.1% ward secretaries, medical & radiology assistants, 6.3% nursing assistants or less qualified nursing staff and 5.1% other staff). All had direct patient contact and 82% were female. Data were collected via questionnaires using the Survey of Violence Experienced by Staff German-Version-Revised, the German version of the shortened Perception of Aggression Scale and the Perception of Importance of Intervention Skills Scale. Descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analyses were used. Risk factors associated with PVV depend upon the form of violence. Those trained in aggression management and/or those who work predominantly with patients over 65 years of age experience twice as much PVV as others. Health professionals working in emergency rooms, outpatient units, intensive care units, recovery rooms, anesthesia, intermediate care and step-down units also experience PVV more often. When health professionals are older in age, are from the medical profession, are students, or when they have an attitude rating preventive measures as being less important and aggression as emotionally letting off steam, they experience less PVV. Training could change the perception and the recognition of PVV, and could therefore increase the risk of experiencing PVV. The health professionals' specific occupation along with attitude and age, the patients' age, the communication and the workplace are all relevant risk factors. Further studies should investigate the impact of aggression management training and other measures that would reduce PVV. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Case-Based Review of Osteonecrosis of the Jaw (ONJ) and Application of the International Recommendations for Management From the International Task Force on ONJ.

PubMed

Khan, Aliya A; Morrison, Archie; Kendler, David L; Rizzoli, Rene; Hanley, David A; Felsenberg, Dieter; McCauley, Laurie K; O'Ryan, Felice; Reid, Ian R; Ruggiero, Salvatore L; Taguchi, Akira; Tetradis, Sotirios; Watts, Nelson B; Brandi, Maria Luisa; Peters, Edmund; Guise, Teresa; Eastell, Richard; Cheung, Angela M; Morin, Suzanne N; Masri, Basel; Cooper, Cyrus; Morgan, Sarah L; Obermayer-Pietsch, Barbara; Langdahl, Bente L; Dabagh, Rana Al; Davison, K Shawn; Sándor, George K; Josse, Robert G; Bhandari, Mohit; El Rabbany, Mohamed; Pierroz, Dominique D; Sulimani, Riad; Saunders, Deborah P; Brown, Jacques P; Compston, Juliet

Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) has been associated with antiresorptive therapy in both oncology and osteoporosis patients. This debilitating condition is very rare and advances in diagnosis and management may now effectively reduce the risk of its development and offer valuable treatment options for affected patients. This paper provides a case-based review of ONJ and application of the International Task Force on ONJ (referred to as the "Task Force") recommendations for the diagnosis and management of ONJ. The Task Force was supported by 14 international societies and achieved consensus from representatives of these multidisciplinary societies on key issues pertaining to the diagnosis and management of ONJ. The frequency of ONJ in oncology patients receiving oncology doses of bisphosphonate (BP) or denosumab is estimated at 1%-15%, and the frequency in the osteoporosis patient population receiving much lower doses of BP or denosumab is estimated at 0.001%-0.01%. Although the diagnosis of ONJ is primarily clinical, imaging may be helpful in confirming the diagnosis and staging. In those with multiple risk factors for ONJ for whom major invasive oral surgery is being planned, interruption of BP or denosumab therapy (in cancer patients) is advised, if possible, before surgery, until the surgical site heals. Major oral surgery in this context could include multiple extractions if surgical extractions are required, not simple forceps extractions. ONJ development may be reduced by optimizing oral hygiene and postoperatively using topical and systemic antibiotics as appropriate. Periodontal disease should be managed before starting oncology doses of BP or denosumab. Local debridement may be successful in disease unresponsive to conservative therapy. Successful surgical intervention has been reported in those with stage 3 disease; less severe disease is best managed conservatively. Teriparatide may be helpful in healing ONJ lesions and may be considered in osteoporosis patients at a high fracture risk in the absence of contraindications. Resumption of BP or denosumab therapy following healing of ONJ lesions is recommended, and there have not been reports of subsequent local recurrence. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Patients' perception of risk: informed choice in prenatal testing for foetal aneuploidy.

PubMed

Choolani, Mahesh; Biswas, Arijit

2012-10-01

Each of us perceives risk differently, and so do our patients. This perception of risk gets even more complex when multiple individuals and interactions are involved: the doctor, the patient-pregnant mother, the spouse-father and the foetus-unborn child. In this review, we address the relationship between different levels of information gathering, from clinical data to experiential knowledge - data, information, knowledge, perception, attitude, wisdom - and how these would impact the perception of risk and informed consent. We discuss how patients might interpret the risks of the same event differently based upon past experiences, and suggest how risk data could be presented more meaningfully for patients and family to assimilate for informed decision making. Finally, we demonstrate how patients' expectations and risk management can impact scientific research and clinical progress by way of the most topical subject of risk screening in pregnancy - non-invasive prenatal testing using cell-free DNA in maternal plasma.

Adverse effects of anticancer agents that target the VEGF pathway.

PubMed

Chen, Helen X; Cleck, Jessica N

2009-08-01

Antiangiogenesis agents that target the VEGF/VEGF receptor pathway have become an important part of standard therapy in multiple cancer indications. With expanded clinical experience with this class of agents has come the increasing recognition of the diverse adverse effects related to disturbance of VEGF-dependent physiological functions and homeostasis in the cardiovascular and renal systems, as well as wound healing and tissue repair. Although most adverse effects of VEGF inhibitors are modest and manageable, some are associated with serious and life-threatening consequences, particularly in high-risk patients and in certain clinical settings. This Review examines the toxicity profiles of anti-VEGF antibodies and small-molecule inhibitors. The potential mechanisms of the adverse effects, risk factors, and the implications for selection of patients and management are discussed.

High Reliability Organizations--Medication Safety.

PubMed

Yip, Luke; Farmer, Brenna

2015-06-01

High reliability organizations (HROs), such as the aviation industry, successfully engage in high-risk endeavors and have low incidence of adverse events. HROs have a preoccupation with failure and errors. They analyze each event to effect system wide change in an attempt to mitigate the occurrence of similar errors. The healthcare industry can adapt HRO practices, specifically with regard to teamwork and communication. Crew resource management concepts can be adapted to healthcare with the use of certain tools such as checklists and the sterile cockpit to reduce medication errors. HROs also use The Swiss Cheese Model to evaluate risk and look for vulnerabilities in multiple protective barriers, instead of focusing on one failure. This model can be used in medication safety to evaluate medication management in addition to using the teamwork and communication tools of HROs.

"Merging Yoga and Occupational Therapy (MY-OT): A feasibility and pilot study".

PubMed

Schmid, Arlene A; Puymbroeck, Marieke Van; Portz, Jennifer D; Atler, Karen E; Fruhauf, Christine A

2016-10-01

To examine the feasibility and benefits of the Merging Yoga and Occupational Therapy (MY-OT) intervention. This is the primary analysis of a non-controlled pretest-posttest pilot study to understand the feasibility and impact of MY-OT on balance, balance self-efficacy, and fall risk factor management in people with chronic stroke. University research laboratory. People with chronic stroke were included in the study if they: had sustained a fall or had fear of falling, were able to stand, and hand impaired balance and were at risk for falls (≤46 on the Berg Balance Scale (BBS)). Individuals completed an 8 week intervention that included 16 sessions of both yoga and group occupational therapy (OT). Yoga included physical postures, breathing exercises, and meditation. OT focused on post-stroke fall risk factor management. The BBS was used to assess balance, the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) was used to measure balance self-efficacy. Five fall risk factor management scales were used. Overall, the intervention was considered feasible, as individuals were able to safely complete the intervention with little attrition and high attendance. Balance improved by 30% (p=0.002). Balance self-efficacy improved by 15% (p=0.034). Each of the five fall risk factor management scales improved, but only two significantly improved (Fall Prevention and Management Questionnaire, 29%, p=0.004 and Fall Prevention Strategy Survey, 42%, p=0.032). The results demonstrate that MY-OT is a potential intervention to improve multiple fall related outcomes for people with stroke. Therapists may consider these interventions for people with stroke, but additional research is warranted. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple-Strain Approach and Probabilistic Modeling of Consumer Habits in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: A Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Staphylococcal Enterotoxin A in Raw Milk.

PubMed

Crotta, Matteo; Rizzi, Rita; Varisco, Giorgio; Daminelli, Paolo; Cunico, Elena Cosciani; Luini, Mario; Graber, Hans Ulrich; Paterlini, Franco; Guitian, Javier

2016-03-01

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) models are extensively applied to inform management of a broad range of food safety risks. Inevitably, QMRA modeling involves an element of simplification of the biological process of interest. Two features that are frequently simplified or disregarded are the pathogenicity of multiple strains of a single pathogen and consumer behavior at the household level. In this study, we developed a QMRA model with a multiple-strain approach and a consumer phase module (CPM) based on uncertainty distributions fitted from field data. We modeled exposure to staphylococcal enterotoxin A in raw milk in Lombardy; a specific enterotoxin production module was thus included. The model is adaptable and could be used to assess the risk related to other pathogens in raw milk as well as other staphylococcal enterotoxins. The multiplestrain approach, implemented as a multinomial process, allowed the inclusion of variability and uncertainty with regard to pathogenicity at the bacterial level. Data from 301 questionnaires submitted to raw milk consumers were used to obtain uncertainty distributions for the CPM. The distributions were modeled to be easily updatable with further data or evidence. The sources of uncertainty due to the multiple-strain approach and the CPM were identified, and their impact on the output was assessed by comparing specific scenarios to the baseline. When the distributions reflecting the uncertainty in consumer behavior were fixed to the 95th percentile, the risk of exposure increased up to 160 times. This reflects the importance of taking into consideration the diversity of consumers' habits at the household level and the impact that the lack of knowledge about variables in the CPM can have on the final QMRA estimates. The multiple-strain approach lends itself to use in other food matrices besides raw milk and allows the model to better capture the complexity of the real world and to be capable of geographical specificity.

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa

PubMed Central

Sergeant, Evan S.

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country. PMID:26986002

Quantitative Risk Assessment for African Horse Sickness in Live Horses Exported from South Africa.

PubMed

Sergeant, Evan S; Grewar, John D; Weyer, Camilla T; Guthrie, Alan J

2016-01-01

African horse sickness (AHS) is a severe, often fatal, arbovirus infection of horses, transmitted by Culicoides spp. midges. AHS occurs in most of sub-Saharan Africa and is a significant impediment to export of live horses from infected countries, such as South Africa. A stochastic risk model was developed to estimate the probability of exporting an undetected AHS-infected horse through a vector protected pre-export quarantine facility, in accordance with OIE recommendations for trade from an infected country. The model also allows for additional risk management measures, including multiple PCR tests prior to and during pre-export quarantine and optionally during post-arrival quarantine, as well as for comparison of risk associated with exports from a demonstrated low-risk area for AHS and an area where AHS is endemic. If 1 million horses were exported from the low-risk area with no post-arrival quarantine we estimate the median number of infected horses to be 5.4 (95% prediction interval 0.5 to 41). This equates to an annual probability of 0.0016 (95% PI: 0.00015 to 0.012) assuming 300 horses exported per year. An additional PCR test while in vector-protected post-arrival quarantine reduced these probabilities by approximately 12-fold. Probabilities for horses exported from an area where AHS is endemic were approximately 15 to 17 times higher than for horses exported from the low-risk area under comparable scenarios. The probability of undetected AHS infection in horses exported from an infected country can be minimised by appropriate risk management measures. The final choice of risk management measures depends on the level of risk acceptable to the importing country.

Population-based analysis of patients with COPD in Catalonia: a cohort study with implications for clinical management

PubMed Central

Vela, Emili; Tényi, Ákos; Cano, Isaac; Monterde, David; Cleries, Montserrat; Garcia-Altes, Anna; Hernandez, Carme; Escarrabill, Joan; Roca, Josep

2018-01-01

Background Clinical management of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) shows potential for improvement provided that patients’ heterogeneities are better understood. The study addresses the impact of comorbidities and its role in health risk assessment. Objective To explore the potential of health registry information to enhance clinical risk assessment and stratification. Design Fixed cohort study including all registered patients with COPD in Catalonia (Spain) (7.5 million citizens) at 31 December 2014 with 1-year (2015) follow-up. Methods A total of 264 830 patients with COPD diagnosis, based on the International Classification of Diseases (Ninth Revision) coding, were assessed. Performance of multiple logistic regression models for the six main dependent variables of the study: mortality, hospitalisations (patients with one or more admissions; all cases and COPD-related), multiple hospitalisations (patients with at least two admissions; all causes and COPD-related) and users with high healthcare costs. Neither clinical nor forced spirometry data were available. Results Multimorbidity, assessed with the adjusted morbidity grouper, was the covariate with the highest impact in the predictive models, which in turn showed high performance measured by the C-statistics: (1) mortality (0.83), (2 and 3) hospitalisations (all causes: 0.77; COPD-related: 0.81), (4 and 5) multiple hospitalisations (all causes: 0.80; COPD-related: 0.87) and (6) users with high healthcare costs (0.76). Fifteen per cent of individuals with highest healthcare costs to year ratio represented 59% of the overall costs of patients with COPD. Conclusions The results stress the impact of assessing multimorbidity with the adjusted morbidity grouper on considered health indicators, which has implications for enhanced COPD staging and clinical management. Trial registration number NCT02956395. PMID:29511004

Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

PubMed

Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

2003-01-01

A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision-Making Framework for Identifying, Assessing and Managing Health Risks (Health Canada, 2000). 4. Canadian Environmental Protection Act: Human Health Risk Assessment of Priority Substances(Health Canada, 1994). 5. CSA-Q8550 Risk Management: Guidelines for Decision-Makers (Canada Standards Association, 1997). 6. Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process (US National Research Council, 1983). 7. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society (US National Research Council, 1996). 8. Environmental Health Risk Assessment (enHealth Council of Australia, 2002). 9. A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (CCME, 1996). 10. Ecological Risk Assessments of Priority Substances Under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act (Environment Canada, 1996).11. Guidelines for Ecological Risk Assessment (US EPA, 1998b). 12. Proposed Model for Occupational Health Risk Assessment and Management (Rampal & Sadhra, 1999). Based on the extensive review of these frameworks, seven key elements that should be included in a comprehensive framework for human health, ecological, and occupational risk assessment and management were identified: 1. Problem formulation stage. 2. Stakeholder involvement. 3. Communication. 4. Quantitative risk assessment components. 5. Iteration and evaluation. 6. Informed decision making. 7. Flexibility. On the basis of this overarching approach to risk management, the following "checklist" to ensure a good risk management decision is proposed: - Make sure you're solving the right problem. - Consider the problem and the risk within the full context of the situation, using a broad perspective. - Acknowledge, incorporate, and balance the multiple dimensions of risk. - Ensure the highest degree of reliability for all components of the risk management process. - Involve interested and effected parties from the outset of the process. - Commit to honest and open communication between all parties. - Employ continuous evaluation throughout the process (formative, process, and outcome evaluation), and be prepared to change the decision if new information becomes available. Comprehensive and sound principles are critical to providing structure and integrity to risk management frameworks. Guiding principles are intended to provide an ethical grounding for considering the many factors involved in risk management decision making. Ten principles are proposed to guide risk management decision making. The first four principles were adapted and modified from Hattis (1996) along with the addition of two more principles by Hrudey (2000). These have been supplemented by another four principles to make the 10 presented. The principles are based in fundamental ethical principles and values. These principles are intended to be aspirational rather than prescriptive--their application requires flexibility and practical judgement. Risk management is inherently a process in search of balance among competing interests and concerns. Each risk management decision will be "balancing act" of competing priorities, and trade-offs may sometimes have to be made between seemingly conflicting principles. The 10 decision-making principles, with the corresponding ethical principle in italics are: 1. Do more good than harm (beneficence, nonmalificence).- The ultimate goal of good risk management is to prevent or minimize risk, or to "do good" as much as possible. 2. Fair process of decision making (fairness, natural justice). - Risk management must be just, equitable, impartial, unbiased, dispassionate, and objective as far as possible given the circumstances of each situation. 3. Ensure an equitable distribution of risk (equity). - An equitable process of risk management would ensure fair outcomes and equal treatment of all concerned through an equal distribution of benefits and burdens (includes the concept of distributive justice, i.e., equal opportunities for all individuals). 4. Seek optimal use of limited risk management resources (utility). - Optimal risk management demands using limited resources where they will achieve the most risk reduction of overall benefit. 5. Promise no more risk management that can be delivered (honesty).- Unrealistic expectations of risk management can be avoided with honest and candid public accounting of what we know and don't know, and what we can and can't do using risk assessment and risk management. 6. Impose no more risk that you would tolerate yourself (the Golden Rule). - The Golden Rule is important in risk management because it forces decision makers to abandon complete detachment from their decisions so they may understand the perspectives of those affected. 7. Be cautious in the face of uncertainty ("better safe than sorry"). - Risk management must adopt a cautious approach when faced with a potentially serous risk, even if the evidence is uncertain. 8. Foster informed risk decision making for all stakeholders (autonomy). - Fostering autonomous decision making involves both providing people with the opportunity to participate, and full and honest disclosure of all the information required for informed decisions. 9. Risk management processes must be flexible and evolutionary to be open to new knowledge and understanding (evolution, evaluation, iterative process). - The incorporation of new evidence requires that risk management be a flexible, evolutionary, and iterative process, and that evaluation is employed at the beginning and througthout the process. 10. the complete elimination fo risk is not possible (life is not risk free).- Risk is pervasive in our society, and cannot be totally eliminated despite an oft-expressed public desire for "zero risk". However, the level of risk that may ve tolerable by any individual is dependent on values of beliefs, as well as scientific information. Each agency must continue to employ a process that meets the needs of their specific application of risk management. A single approach cannot satisfy the diverse areas to which risk decisions are being applied. However, with increasing experience in the application of the approaches, we are evolving to a common understanding of the essential elements and principles required for successful risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication. Risk management will continue to be a balancing act of competing priorities and needs. Flexibility and good judgement are ultimately the key to successfully making appropriate risk decisions.

Management of monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM).

PubMed

Kyle, Robert A; Rajkumar, S Vincent

2011-06-01

Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is defined as a serum M protein level of less than 3 g/dL, less than 10% clonal plasma cells in the bone marrow, and the absence of end-organ damage. The prevalence of MGUS is 3.2% in the white population but is approximately twice that high in the black population. MGUS may progress to multiple myeloma, AL amyloidosis, Waldenström macroglobulinemia, or lymphoma. The risk of progression is approximately 1% per year, but the risk continues even after more than 25 years of observation. Risk factors for progression include the size of the serum M protein, the type of serum M protein, the number of plasma cells in the bone marrow, and the serum free light chain ratio. Smoldering (asymptomatic) multiple myeloma (SMM) is characterized by the presence of an M protein level of 3 g/dL or higher and/or 10% or more monoclonal plasma cells in the bone marrow but no evidence of end-organ damage. The overall risk of progression to a malignant condition is 10% per year for the first 5 years, approximately 3% per year for the next 5 years, and 1% to 2% per year for the following 10 years. Patients with both MGUS and SMM must be followed up for their lifetime.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes “bad news” for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

Quantifying and modeling long-range cross correlations in multiple time series with applications to world stock indices.

PubMed

Wang, Duan; Podobnik, Boris; Horvatić, Davor; Stanley, H Eugene

2011-04-01

We propose a modified time lag random matrix theory in order to study time-lag cross correlations in multiple time series. We apply the method to 48 world indices, one for each of 48 different countries. We find long-range power-law cross correlations in the absolute values of returns that quantify risk, and find that they decay much more slowly than cross correlations between the returns. The magnitude of the cross correlations constitutes "bad news" for international investment managers who may believe that risk is reduced by diversifying across countries. We find that when a market shock is transmitted around the world, the risk decays very slowly. We explain these time-lag cross correlations by introducing a global factor model (GFM) in which all index returns fluctuate in response to a single global factor. For each pair of individual time series of returns, the cross correlations between returns (or magnitudes) can be modeled with the autocorrelations of the global factor returns (or magnitudes). We estimate the global factor using principal component analysis, which minimizes the variance of the residuals after removing the global trend. Using random matrix theory, a significant fraction of the world index cross correlations can be explained by the global factor, which supports the utility of the GFM. We demonstrate applications of the GFM in forecasting risks at the world level, and in finding uncorrelated individual indices. We find ten indices that are practically uncorrelated with the global factor and with the remainder of the world indices, which is relevant information for world managers in reducing their portfolio risk. Finally, we argue that this general method can be applied to a wide range of phenomena in which time series are measured, ranging from seismology and physiology to atmospheric geophysics.

How the Adoption of the Big-Data Paradigm Affects the Key Factors That Influence the Effectiveness of an Information Assurance (IA) Framework: A Multiple-Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Apple, Benjamin G.

2017-01-01

This qualitative study identified those factors that influence the perceived effectiveness of traditional IA control frameworks. The key factors examined in this study are risk management, governance, access control, privacy protection, integrity, availability, reliability, and usability. The researcher endeavored to determine how the…

The Breathmobile[TM]: A Novel Comprehensive School-Based Mobile Asthma Care Clinic for Urban Underprivileged Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liao, Otto; Morphew, Tricia; Amaro, Silvia; Galant, Stanley P.

2006-01-01

Urban minority children have higher rates of asthma morbidity due to multiple factors. Many school-based programs have been funded to improve asthma management, especially for these "high-risk" inner-city children with asthma. Here they report the outcomes of the Children's Hospital of Orange County Breathmobile program, which is a school-based…

Risk tradeoffs in adaptive ecosystem management: the case of the U.S. Forest Service

Treesearch

Marc J. Stern; Caysie A. Martin; S. Andrew Predmore; Wayde C. Morse

2014-01-01

Natural resource planning processes on public lands in the United States are driven in large part by the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which dictates general processes for analyzing and disclosing the likely impacts of proposed actions. The outcomes of these processes are the result of multiple factors, many related to the manifold...

A bottom up approach to implementing multi-purpose mitigation measures for reducing flood risk and improving water quality in agricultural catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilkinson, M. E.; Quinn, P. F.; Jonczyk, J.; Burke, S.; Nicholson, A.; Barber, N.; Owen, G.; Palmer, M.

2012-04-01

A number of studies have suggested that there is evidence that modern land-use management practices have increased surface runoff at the local scale. There is an urgent need for interventions to reduce the risk of flooding whilst also delivering multiple benefits (doing more for less). There are many settlements, which regularly suffer from flooding, which would benefit from upstream mitigation measures. Interventions at the source of runoff generation can have a positive impact on the flood hydrograph downstream. An integrated approach to managing runoff can also have multiple benefits on pollution and ecology, which could lead to beneficial impacts at the catchment scale. Belford, a small community in Northumberland, UK has suffered from an increased number of flood events over the past ten years. There is currently support within the English and Welsh Environment Agency for sustainable flood management solutions such as storage ponds, wetlands, beaver dams and willow riparian features which are being trialled at Belford. These runoff attenuation features (RAFs) also have benefits to water quality, capture sediment and create new ecological zones. Although the process by which numerous RAFs were deployed in Belford proved initially difficult to achieve within the existing regulatory framework, an efficient uptake process is now supported by local regulators including several branches of the Environment Agency. The Belford runoff management framework provides a step by step guide to implementing mitigation measures in the Belford burn catchment and could be easily applied to other catchments at a similar scale. The approach is based on implementing mitigation measures through engaging with catchment stakeholders and using solid field science and management protocols.

Smartphone self-monitoring to support self-management among people living with HIV: perceived benefits and theory of change from a mixed-methods randomized pilot study.

PubMed

Swendeman, Dallas; Ramanathan, Nithya; Baetscher, Laura; Medich, Melissa; Scheffler, Aaron; Comulada, W Scott; Estrin, Deborah

2015-05-01

Self-monitoring by mobile phone applications offers new opportunities to engage patients in self-management. Self-monitoring has not been examined thoroughly as a self-directed intervention strategy for self-management of multiple behaviors and states by people living with HIV (PLH). PLH (n = 50), primarily African American and Latino, were recruited from 2 AIDS services organizations and randomly assigned to daily smartphone (n = 34) or biweekly Web-survey only (n = 16) self-monitoring for 6 weeks. Smartphone self-monitoring included responding to brief surveys on medication adherence, mental health, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors, and brief text diaries on stressful events. Qualitative analyses examine biweekly open-ended user-experience interviews regarding perceived benefits and barriers of self-monitoring, and to elaborate a theoretical model for potential efficacy of self-monitoring to support self-management for multiple domains. Self-monitoring functions include reflection for self-awareness, cues to action (reminders), reinforcements from self-tracking, and their potential effects on risk perceptions, motivations, skills, and behavioral activation states. Participants also reported therapeutic benefits related to self-expression for catharsis, nonjudgmental disclosure, and in-the-moment support. About one-third of participants reported that surveys were too long, frequent, or tedious. Some smartphone group participants suggested that daily self-monitoring was more beneficial than biweekly due to frequency and in-the-moment availability. About twice as many daily self-monitoring group participants reported increased awareness and behavior change support from self-monitoring compared with biweekly Web-survey only participants. Self-monitoring is a potentially efficacious disruptive innovation for supporting self-management by PLH and for complementing other interventions, but more research is needed to confirm efficacy, adoption, and sustainability.

Prevention and diagnosis of invasive fungal disease in high-risk patients within an integrative care pathway.

PubMed

Barnes, Rosemary A; Stocking, Kate; Bowden, Sarah; Poynton, Matthew H; White, P Lewis

2013-09-01

The aim of this study was to assess the clinical utility of enhanced diagnostics on the management of invasive fungal disease in high risk patients within an integrated care pathway and to audit compliance and efficacy of antifungal prophylaxis. A cohort of 549 high risk haematology and stem-cell transplant recipients was followed over a 5 year period. The routine standard of care involved the use of antimould prophylaxis and a neutropenic care pathway utilizing twice weekly antigen and PCR testing. Prophylaxis with itraconazole was poorly tolerated and therapeutic levels could not be maintained. Antigen testing and PCR showed good clinical utility in the management of invasive aspergilosis with high sensitivity (98%) and negative predictive value (99.6%) when both tests were used together, allowing a diagnosis IA to be excluded and obviating the need for empirical antifungal agents. When used serially, multiple positive PCR and antigen test results enabled accurate diagnosis of IA with a specificity of 95% and a positive likelihood ratio of 11. Biomarkers preceded clinical signs in 85% of proven and probable invasive disease. The combination of both tests showed optimum clinical utility for the diagnosis and management of IA in this high risk group. Copyright © 2013 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An opportunity to combat obesity lies in the at-risk college population.

PubMed

Swanson, Wendi Mortimer

2016-04-01

Approximately 70% of United States [or U.S.] adults are either overweight or obese. Obesity increases the risk of chronic disease and strains healthcare access, quality, and cost. Weight gain occurs in college students threatening optimal weight maintenance. Physical activity is fundamental to preventing disease. College students incur multiple challenges in weight management. The purpose of the article is to describe the opportunity for Advanced Practice Registered Nurses (APRNs) to intentionally become wellness promoters. The literature was reviewed and interventions developed. Guided by Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory, focus was concentrated on environmental influences through a proposed Staying Active Campaign (SAC). College students are a vulnerable population at risk for unhealthful practices. Young adulthood is a critical period of weight gain that carries risk for later adulthood. College students desire and require assistance for successful weight management. Interventions can be directed by APRNs to achieve healthful weight management and create a campus-wide culture that reinforces healthful practices. Obesity in the college population is a twofold circumstance. Action by APRNs is needed to address obesity and advocate for the prevention of future obesity. The SAC decreases the confounding college environment and supports the students' ability to be physically active while establishing personal lifelong behaviors to emulate and share with others. ©2016 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Systematic Review: The Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Falls and Improve Balance in Adults With Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Gunn, Hilary; Markevics, Sophie; Haas, Bernhard; Marsden, Jonathan; Freeman, Jennifer

2015-10-01

To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions in reducing falls and/or improving balance as a falls risk in multiple sclerosis (MS). Computer-based and manual searches included the following medical subject heading keywords: "Multiple Sclerosis AND accidental falls" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND postural balance" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND exercise" OR "Multiple Sclerosis AND physical/physio therapy" NOT animals. All literature published to November 2014 with available full-text details were included. Studies were reviewed against the PICO (participants, interventions, comparisons, outcomes) selection criteria: P, adults with MS; I, falls management/balance rehabilitation interventions; C, randomized/quasi-randomized studies comparing intervention with usual care or placebo control; O, falls outcomes and measures of balance. Fifteen articles of the original 529 search results were included. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed methodological quality using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Random-effects meta-analysis indicated a small decrease in falls risk (risk ratio, .74), although the 95% confidence interval (CI) crossed 1 (95% CI, .12-4.38). The pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) for balance outcomes was .55 (95% CI, .35-.74). SMD varied significantly between exercise subgroupings; gait, balance, and functional training interventions yielded the greatest pooled effect size (ES) (SMD=.82; 95% CI, 0.55-1.10). There was a moderate positive correlation between program volume (min/wk) and ES (Cohen's d) (r=.70, P=.009), and a moderate negative correlation between program duration in weeks and ES (r=-.62, P=.03). Variations in interventions and outcomes and methodological limitations mean that results must be viewed with caution. This review suggests that balance may improve through exercise interventions, but that the magnitude of the improvements achieved in existing programs may not be sufficient to impact falls outcomes. Supporting participants to achieve an appropriate intensity of practice of highly challenging balance activities appears to be critical to maximizing effectiveness. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Laparoscopic diagnosis of magnetic malrotation with fistula and volvulus.

PubMed

Wooten, Kimberly E; Hartin, Charles W; Ozgediz, Doruk E

2012-01-01

Most foreign bodies that a child ingests pass harmlessly through the gastrointestinal tract. However, ingesting multiple magnets places a child at risk for serious viscus injury. A 16-y-old boy swallowed multiple magnets and presented with abdominal pain and emesis. Upon laparoscopy, the boy was found to have malrotation with volvulus caused by a cecal magnet attracted to a gastric magnet, resulting in a gastrocecal fistula. We review the management of magnet ingestion with an emphasis on a high index of suspicion and the use of laparoscopy for diagnosis, as well as the consequences of a coexisting rotational anomaly.

Integrating human health and ecological concerns in risk assessments.

PubMed

Cirone, P A; Bruce Duncan, P

2000-11-03

The interconnections between ecosystems, human health and welfare have been increasingly recognized by the US government, academia, and the public. This paper continues this theme by addressing the use of risk assessment to integrate people into a single assessment. In a broad overview of the risk assessment process we stress the need to build a conceptual model of the whole system including multiple species (humans and other ecological entities), stressors, and cumulative effects. We also propose converging landscape ecology and evaluation of ecosystem services with risk assessment to address these cumulative responses. We first look at how this integration can occur within the problem formulation step in risk assessment where the system is defined, a conceptual model created, a subset of components and functions selected, and the analytical framework decided in a context that includes the management decisions. A variety of examples of problem formulations (salmon, wild insects, hyporheic ecosystems, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, nitrogen fertilization, toxic chemicals, and oil spills) are presented to illustrate how treating humans as components of the landscape can add value to risk assessments. We conclude that the risk assessment process should help address the urgent needs of society in proportion to importance, to provide a format to communicate knowledge and understanding, and to inform policy and management decisions.

Examining the Relationship Between Pain Catastrophizing and Suicide Risk in Patients with Rheumatic Disease: the Mediating Role of Depression, Perceived Social Support, and Perceived Burdensomeness.

PubMed

Shim, Eun -Jung; Song, Yeong Wook; Park, Seung-Hee; Lee, Kwang-Min; Go, Dong Jin; Hahm, Bong-Jin

2017-08-01

Little research has examined the role of pain catastrophizing (PC) in predicting suicide among patients with rheumatic disease or the mechanisms through which it works. This study examines whether depression, perceived social support (PSS), and perceived burdensomeness (PB) mediate the relationship between PC and suicide risk. It also examines the relative importance of sociodemographic, clinical, and psychological factors in predicting suicide risk. Three hundred sixty patients from a rheumatology clinic in Korea completed measures of pain catastrophizing, social support, depression, and perceived burdensomeness. In hierarchical multiple regression analysis, the PC magnification, PB, physical disability, and PSS were significantly related to suicide risk. Results of the serial multiple mediation analysis indicated that the total indirect effect of PC magnification on suicide risk was significant while the direct effect was not. Four specific indirect effects of PC magnification were found to be statistically significant. First of all, PC magnification was associated with suicide risk through PB and through depression and PB. PC magnification was also associated with suicide risk through depression and PSS. Lastly, PC magnification was associated with suicide risk through depression, PSS, and PB. The identified pathways through which PC affects suicide risk suggest the importance of depression, PSS, and PB. Evaluation and intervention targeted at physical disability and the psychological factors of PC magnification, depression, PSS, and PB may be integrated into the management of suicide risk in patients with rheumatic disease.

Hereditary Melanoma: Update on Syndromes and Management - Genetics of familial atypical multiple mole melanoma syndrome

PubMed Central

Soura, E.; Eliades, P.; Shannon, K.; Stratigos, A.; Tsao, H.

2015-01-01

Malignant melanoma is considered the most lethal skin cancer if not detected and treated at its early stages. About 10% of melanoma patients report a family history of melanoma; however, individuals with features of true hereditary melanoma (i.e. unilateral lineage, multi-generational, multiple primary lesions, and early onset of disease) are in fact quite rare. Although many new loci have been implicated in hereditary melanoma, CDKN2A mutations remain the most common. Familial melanoma in the presence of multiple atypical nevi should raise suspicion for a germline CDKN2A mutation. Such patients have a high risk of developing multiple primary melanomas and internal organ malignancies especially pancreatic cancer; thus, a multidisciplinary approach is necessary in many cases. The value of dermoscopy examination and total body photography performed at regular intervals has been suggested by a number of studies, and should therefore be considered for these patients and their first degree relatives. In addition, genetic counseling with the possibility of testing can be a valuable adjunct for familial melanoma patients. But, this must be performed with care and only by qualified individuals trained in cancer risk analysis. PMID:26892650

Clinical nursing leaders', team members' and service managers' experiences of implementing evidence at a local level.

PubMed

Kitson, Alison; Silverston, Heidi; Wiechula, Rick; Zeitz, Kathryn; Marcoionni, Danni; Page, Tammy

2011-05-01

To describe the experiences of 14 clinical nursing leaders introducing a knowledge translation (KT) project into one metropolitan acute care hospital in South Australia. The study also explored team members' and service managers' experiences. KT strategies assume that local (nursing) clinical leaders have the capacity and capability to champion innovation combining positional leadership roles (ward leader) with a project lead role. There is limited evidence to support these assumptions. Semi-structured interviews of clinical nursing leaders and managers were undertaken at month 4 and 12 of the project. Data were also collected from the interdisciplinary team members (n = 28). Clinical nursing leaders identified risks and anxieties associated with taking on an additional leadership role, whereas managers acknowledged the multiple pressures on the system and the need for local level innovation. Team members generally reported positive experiences. With support, clinical nursing leaders can effectively embrace KT project leadership roles that complement their positional leadership roles. Clinical nursing leaders' experiences differed from nursing and medical managers' experiences.   Managers need to be more attuned to the personal risks local leaders experience, providing support for leaders to experiment and innovate. Managers need to integrate local priorities with broader system wide agendas. © 2011 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Analysis of perceived risk among construction workers: a cross-cultural study and reflection on the Hofstede model.

PubMed

Martinez-Fiestas, Myriam; Rodríguez-Garzón, Ignacio; Delgado-Padial, Antonio; Lucas-Ruiz, Valeriano

2017-09-01

This article presents a cross-cultural study on perceived risk in the construction industry. Worker samples from three different countries were studied: Spain, Peru and Nicaragua. The main goal was to explain how construction workers perceive their occupational hazard and to analyze how this is related to their national culture. The model used to measure perceived risk was the psychometric paradigm. The results show three very similar profiles, indicating that risk perception is independent of nationality. A cultural analysis was conducted using the Hofstede model. The results of this analysis and the relation to perceived risk showed that risk perception in construction is independent of national culture. Finally, a multiple lineal regression analysis was conducted to determine what qualitative attributes could predict the global quantitative size of risk perception. All of the findings have important implications regarding the management of safety in the workplace.

Evaluation and management of bradycardia in neonates and children.

PubMed

Baruteau, Alban-Elouen; Perry, James C; Sanatani, Shubhayan; Horie, Minoru; Dubin, Anne M

2016-02-01

Heart rate is commonly used in pediatric early warning scores. Age-related changes in the anatomy and physiology of infants and children produce normal ranges for electrocardiogram features that differ from adults and vary with age. Bradycardia is defined as a heart rate below the lowest normal value for age. Pediatric bradycardia most commonly manifests as sinus bradycardia, junctional bradycardia, or atrioventricular block. As a result of several different etiologies, it may occur in an entirely structurally normal heart or in association with concomitant congenital heart disease. Genetic variants in multiple genes have been described to date in the pathogenesis of inherited sinus node dysfunction or progressive cardiac conduction disorders. Management and eventual prognosis of bradycardia in the young are entirely dependent upon the underlying cause. Reasons to intervene for bradycardia are the association of related symptoms and/or the downstream risk of heart failure or pause-dependent tachyarrhythmia. The simplest aspect of severe bradycardia management is reflected in the Pediatric and Advanced Life Support (PALS) guidelines. Early diagnosis and appropriate management are critical in many cases in order to prevent sudden death, and this review critically assesses our current practice for evaluation and management of bradycardia in neonates and children. Bradycardia is defined as a heart rate below the lowest normal value for age. Age related changes in the anatomy and physiology of infants and children produce normal ranges for electrocardiogram features that differ from adults and vary with age. Pediatric bradycardia most commonly manifests as sinus bradycardia, junctional bradycardia, or atrioventricular block. Management and eventual prognosis of bradycardia in the young are entirely dependent upon the underlying cause. Bradycardia may occur in a structurally normal heart or in association with congenital heart disease. Genetic variants in multiple genes have been described. Reasons to intervene for bradycardia are the association of related symptoms and/or the downstream risk of heart failure or pause-dependent tachyarrhythmia. Early diagnosis and appropriate management are critical in order to prevent sudden death.

Using Mobile Health (mHealth) Technology in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus, Physical Inactivity, and Smoking.

PubMed

Rehman, Hasan; Kamal, Ayeesha K; Sayani, Saleem; Morris, Pamela B; Merchant, Anwar T; Virani, Salim S

2017-04-01

Cardiovascular mortality remains high due to insufficient progress made in managing cardiovascular risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, physical inactivity, and smoking. Healthy lifestyle choices play an important role in the management of these modifiable risk factors. Mobile health or mHealth is defined as the use of mobile computing and communication technologies (i.e., mobile phones, wearable sensors) for the delivery of health services and health-related information. In this review, we examine some recent studies that utilized mHealth tools to improve management of these risk factors, with examples from developing countries where available. The mHealth intervention used depends on the availability of resources. While developing countries are often restricted to text messages, more resourceful settings are shifting towards mobile phone applications and wearable technology. Diabetes mellitus has been extensively studied in different settings, and results have been encouraging. Tools utilized to increase physical activity are expensive, and studies have been limited to resource-abundant areas and have shown mixed results. Smoking cessation has had promising initial results with the use of technology, but mHealth's ability to recruit participants beyond those actively seeking to quit has not been established. mHealth interventions appear to be a potential tool in improving control of cardiovascular risk factors that rely on individuals making healthy lifestyle choices. Data related to clinical impact, if any, of commercially available tools is lacking. More studies are needed to assess interventions that target multiple cardiovascular risk factors and their impact on hard cardiovascular outcomes.

Avoiding hypoglycaemia: a new target of care for elderly diabetic patients.

PubMed

Wong, C W

2015-10-01

Optimising glycaemic control to prevent diabetes-associated complications has received much attention. The associated risk of iatrogenic hypoglycaemia, however, is inevitable and can have a significant impact on health. The prevalence of iatrogenic hypoglycaemia tends to increase with advancing age. Elderly people are intrinsically prone to hypoglycaemia. Ageing attenuates the glucose counter-regulatory and symptomatic response to hypoglycaemia, particularly in the presence of a longer duration of diabetes. Multiple co-morbidities and polypharmacy correlated with advancing age also increase the hypoglycaemic risk. In addition to the acute adverse effects of hypoglycaemia, such as fall with injury, cardiovascular events and mortality, a hypoglycaemic episode can have long-term consequences. Repeated episodes may have a significant psychological impact and are also a risk factor for dementia. Because of the heterogeneous health status of the elderly, not all will benefit from optimal glycaemic control. Setting an individual glycaemic target and formulating a management plan that takes account of the patient's circumstances combined with balancing the benefit and risk of diabetes intervention to avoid hypoglycaemia is a more practical approach to the management of elderly diabetic patients.

Food Insecurity is Associated with Hypoglycemia and Poor Diabetes Self-Management in a Low-Income Sample with Diabetes

PubMed Central

Seligman, Hilary K.; Davis, Terry C.; Schillinger, Dean; Wolf, Michael S.

2010-01-01

More than 14% of the American population is food insecure, or at risk of going hungry because of an inability to afford food. Food-insecure (FI) adults often reduce food intake or substitute inexpensive, energy-dense carbohydrates for healthier foods. We hypothesized these behaviors would predispose FI adults with diabetes to impaired diabetes self-management and hypoglycemia. We therefore assessed whether food insecurity was associated with multiple indicators of diabetes self-management (self-efficacy, medication- and glucose-monitoring adherence, hypoglycemia, or glycemic control) among 40 low-income adults with diabetes. Mean self-efficacy score was lower among FI than food-secure (FS) participants (34.4 vs. 41.2, p=.02). Food-insecure participants reported poorer adherence to blood glucose monitoring (RR=3.5, p=.008) and more hypoglycemia-related emergency department visits (RR=2.2, p=.007). Mean hemoglobin A1c was 9.2% among FI and 7.7% among FS participants (p=.08). Food insecurity is a barrier to diabetes self-management and a risk factor for clinically significant hypoglycemia. PMID:21099074

Food insecurity is associated with hypoglycemia and poor diabetes self-management in a low-income sample with diabetes.

PubMed

Seligman, Hilary K; Davis, Terry C; Schillinger, Dean; Wolf, Michael S

2010-11-01

More than 14% of the American population is food insecure, or at risk of going hungry because of an inability to afford food. Food-insecure (FI) adults often reduce food intake or substitute inexpensive, energy-dense carbohydrates for healthier foods. We hypothesized these behaviors would predispose FI adults with diabetes to hypoglycemia and impaired diabetes self-management. We therefore assessed whether food insecurity was associated with multiple indicators of diabetes self-management (self-efficacy, medication- and glucose-monitoring adherence, hypoglycemia, or glycemic control) among 40 low-income adults with diabetes. Mean self-efficacy score was lower among FI than food-secure (FS) participants (34.4 vs. 41.2, p=.02). Food-insecure participants reported poorer adherence to blood glucose monitoring (RR=3.5, p=.008) and more hypoglycemia-related emergency department visits (RR=2.2, p=.007). Mean hemoglobin A1c was 9.2% among FI and 7.7% among FS participants (p=.08). Food insecurity is a barrier to diabetes self-management and a risk factor for clinically significant hypoglycemia.

Summary of evidence-based guideline update: evaluation and management of concussion in sports: report of the Guideline Development Subcommittee of the American Academy of Neurology.

PubMed

Giza, Christopher C; Kutcher, Jeffrey S; Ashwal, Stephen; Barth, Jeffrey; Getchius, Thomas S D; Gioia, Gerard A; Gronseth, Gary S; Guskiewicz, Kevin; Mandel, Steven; Manley, Geoffrey; McKeag, Douglas B; Thurman, David J; Zafonte, Ross

2013-06-11

To update the 1997 American Academy of Neurology (AAN) practice parameter regarding sports concussion, focusing on 4 questions: 1) What factors increase/decrease concussion risk? 2) What diagnostic tools identify those with concussion and those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early impairments, neurologic catastrophe, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 3) What clinical factors identify those at increased risk for severe/prolonged early postconcussion impairments, neurologic catastrophe, recurrent concussions, or chronic neurobehavioral impairment? 4) What interventions enhance recovery, reduce recurrent concussion risk, or diminish long-term sequelae? The complete guideline on which this summary is based is available as an online data supplement to this article. We systematically reviewed the literature from 1955 to June 2012 for pertinent evidence. We assessed evidence for quality and synthesized into conclusions using a modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation process. We used a modified Delphi process to develop recommendations. Specific risk factors can increase or decrease concussion risk. Diagnostic tools to help identify individuals with concussion include graded symptom checklists, the Standardized Assessment of Concussion, neuropsychological assessments, and the Balance Error Scoring System. Ongoing clinical symptoms, concussion history, and younger age identify those at risk for postconcussion impairments. Risk factors for recurrent concussion include history of multiple concussions, particularly within 10 days after initial concussion. Risk factors for chronic neurobehavioral impairment include concussion exposure and APOE ε4 genotype. Data are insufficient to show that any intervention enhances recovery or diminishes long-term sequelae postconcussion. Practice recommendations are presented for preparticipation counseling, management of suspected concussion, and management of diagnosed concussion.

Latex Allergies: A Review of Recognition, Evaluation, Management, Prevention, Education, and Alternative Product Use

PubMed Central

Schroyer, Traci; Catalfano, Jennifer

2003-01-01

Objectives: To provide information about latex allergies; to determine how to recognize, evaluate, and manage emergencies related to latex allergies; and how to identify those at risk for latex allergies. Additionally, ways to prevent latex exposure, to educate health care workers and athletes about latex allergy, and to provide safe alternatives to latex are investigated. Data Sources: We searched MEDLINE and SPORT Discus for the years 1998–2002 using the key words latex, allergies, rubber, anaphylaxis, gloves, cross-reaction, IgE (immunoglobulin G) proteins, and radioallergosorbent test (RAST). Background: Latex, a sap from the rubber tree, is found in many products used in everyday life. Latex is composed of compounds that may cause an allergic reaction, whose severity can range from irritant dermatitis to type IV dermatitis to type I systemic reaction. Recognition of the signs and symptoms associated with these reactions by the health care professional may help to prevent a more severe reaction from occurring. Reactions can be complicated by contact with other substances, thus causing a cross-reaction. Some individuals are more at risk of latex allergies due to repetitive exposure to latex through their career paths, multiple surgeries, other allergies, or respiratory conditions. Management of an acute reaction involves removal of the irritant, cleansing of the affected area, monitoring vital signs for changes, and seeking additional medical assistance as warranted. Recommendations: Those at risk may be identified through a thorough medical history and allergy testing. Prevention techniques and guidelines are examined, with an emphasis on education at multiple levels. Product information for nonlatex equipment and supplies for the athletic training room is offered, with additional resource information provided. PMID:16558678

Underlying risk factors for prescribing errors in long-term aged care: a qualitative study.

PubMed

Tariq, Amina; Georgiou, Andrew; Raban, Magdalena; Baysari, Melissa Therese; Westbrook, Johanna

2016-09-01

To identify system-related risk factors perceived to contribute to prescribing errors in Australian long-term care settings, that is, residential aged care facilities (RACFs). The study used qualitative methods to explore factors that contribute to unsafe prescribing in RACFs. Data were collected at three RACFs in metropolitan Sydney, Australia between May and November 2011. Participants included RACF managers, doctors, pharmacists and RACF staff actively involved in prescribing-related processes. Methods included non-participant observations (74 h), in-depth semistructured interviews (n=25) and artefact analysis. Detailed process activity models were developed for observed prescribing episodes supplemented by triangulated analysis using content analysis methods. System-related factors perceived to increase the risk of prescribing errors in RACFs were classified into three overarching themes: communication systems, team coordination and staff management. Factors associated with communication systems included limited point-of-care access to information, inadequate handovers, information storage across different media (paper, electronic and memory), poor legibility of charts, information double handling, multiple faxing of medication charts and reliance on manual chart reviews. Team factors included lack of established lines of responsibility, inadequate team communication and limited participation of doctors in multidisciplinary initiatives like medication advisory committee meetings. Factors related to staff management and workload included doctors' time constraints and their accessibility, lack of trained RACF staff and high RACF staff turnover. The study highlights several system-related factors including laborious methods for exchanging medication information, which often act together to contribute to prescribing errors. Multiple interventions (eg, technology systems, team communication protocols) are required to support the collaborative nature of RACF prescribing. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

The Tous Dam Disaster of 1982: Risk communication and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serra-Llobet, A.; Tàbara, J.; Sauri, D.

2012-12-01

The failure of Tous dam on the Júcar River near Valencia in 1982 was one of the most important socio-natural disasters in 20th century Spain. The death toll of 25 would have been much greater had not a local dam manager anticipated the failure and alerted mayors of a failure, before it actually occurred. The Tous Dam failure occurred a week before the first democratic elections in Spain after the Franco dictatorship, it received extensive coverage in the media. As a result, this disaster triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed at multiple levels of government in Spain. Many factors, often of a qualitative and organisational nature, affect (vertical and horizontal) communication in disaster risk reduction learning and planning at the community level. Through interviews with key actors and stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, review of historical and media accounts, and analysis of legislation and regulation, we documented changes that resulted from the Tous Dam failure: (1) A process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organisations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. (2) Actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain.We identify three main stages from 1980s to present in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area, which show a progressive shift towards a more integrated and preventative approach: (1) After the collapse of the Tous Dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives (e.g. the UN International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction), which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Flood Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures and integrates, for the first time, ecological concerns and climate change adaptation in flood management strategies.

Predicting disease risk, identifying stakeholders, and informing control strategies: A case study of anthrax in Montana

PubMed Central

Morris, Lillian R.; Blackburn, Jason K.

2018-01-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage, and can lead to large scale die offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs. PMID:27169560

Predicting Disease Risk, Identifying Stakeholders, and Informing Control Strategies: A Case Study of Anthrax in Montana.

PubMed

Morris, Lillian R; Blackburn, Jason K

2016-06-01

Infectious diseases that affect wildlife and livestock are challenging to manage and can lead to large-scale die-offs, economic losses, and threats to human health. The management of infectious diseases in wildlife and livestock is made easier with knowledge of disease risk across space and identifying stakeholders associated with high-risk landscapes. This study focuses on anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, risk to wildlife and livestock in Montana. There is a history of anthrax in Montana, but the spatial extent of disease risk and subsequent wildlife species at risk are not known. Our objective was to predict the potential geographic distribution of anthrax risk across Montana, identify wildlife species at risk and their distributions, and define stakeholders. We used an ecological niche model to predict the potential distribution of anthrax risk. We overlaid susceptible wildlife species distributions and land ownership delineations on our risk map. We found that there was an extensive region across Montana predicted as potential anthrax risk. These potentially risky landscapes overlapped the ranges of all 6 ungulate species considered in the analysis and livestock grazing allotments, and this overlap was on public and private land for all species. Our findings suggest that there is the potential for a multi-species anthrax outbreak on multiple landscapes across Montana. Our potential anthrax risk map can be used to prioritize landscapes for surveillance and for implementing livestock vaccination programs.

The Value of Risk Pooling for Mitigating Water Utility Financial Risks Arising From Water Scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, R.; Characklis, G. W.; Hughes, J.; Eskaf, S.

2015-12-01

Water utilities across the United States face growing supply risks as demand growth and extreme weather events make water scarcity more common. As it has become more difficult and expensive to build new supply capacity to accommodate these events, many utility managers respond by either imposing conservation measures, which reduces revenues, or acquiring additional water from other sources, which increases costs. These actions lead to changing financial trends that are difficult to predict and that utilities are currently ill-equipped to manage. As a result, adaptation strategies and tools are being developed to reduce utility vulnerabilities, ensuring both financial stability and continued access to low cost financing, a critical consideration for a capital intensive industry. Previous work in this area has involved the development of utility specific financial hedging tools. However, the time and informational requirements associated with developing these individualized strategies may be a limiting factor for widespread implementation. The objective of this research is to develop more generalized hedging instruments that can be applied simultaneously to multiple utilities across the United States, thereby increasing the potential for widespread implementation. This work first analyzes the financial risks of water scarcity for a large set of water utilities across the country and then proposes a financial hedging solution to mitigate these risks through hydrologic index-based financial insurance. Results provide insights into the most effective indices, the potential for risk pooling to reduce insurance costs, and the performance of these contracts in managing utility financial risk arising from drought.

Dynamic optimization of ISR sensors using a risk-based reward function applied to ground and space surveillance scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeSena, J. T.; Martin, S. R.; Clarke, J. C.; Dutrow, D. A.; Newman, A. J.

2012-06-01

As the number and diversity of sensing assets available for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) operations continues to expand, the limited ability of human operators to effectively manage, control and exploit the ISR ensemble is exceeded, leading to reduced operational effectiveness. Automated support both in the processing of voluminous sensor data and sensor asset control can relieve the burden of human operators to support operation of larger ISR ensembles. In dynamic environments it is essential to react quickly to current information to avoid stale, sub-optimal plans. Our approach is to apply the principles of feedback control to ISR operations, "closing the loop" from the sensor collections through automated processing to ISR asset control. Previous work by the authors demonstrated non-myopic multiple platform trajectory control using a receding horizon controller in a closed feedback loop with a multiple hypothesis tracker applied to multi-target search and track simulation scenarios in the ground and space domains. This paper presents extensions in both size and scope of the previous work, demonstrating closed-loop control, involving both platform routing and sensor pointing, of a multisensor, multi-platform ISR ensemble tasked with providing situational awareness and performing search, track and classification of multiple moving ground targets in irregular warfare scenarios. The closed-loop ISR system is fullyrealized using distributed, asynchronous components that communicate over a network. The closed-loop ISR system has been exercised via a networked simulation test bed against a scenario in the Afghanistan theater implemented using high-fidelity terrain and imagery data. In addition, the system has been applied to space surveillance scenarios requiring tracking of space objects where current deliberative, manually intensive processes for managing sensor assets are insufficiently responsive. Simulation experiment results are presented. The algorithm to jointly optimize sensor schedules against search, track, and classify is based on recent work by Papageorgiou and Raykin on risk-based sensor management. It uses a risk-based objective function and attempts to minimize and balance the risks of misclassifying and losing track on an object. It supports the requirement to generate tasking for metric and feature data concurrently and synergistically, and account for both tracking accuracy and object characterization, jointly, in computing reward and cost for optimizing tasking decisions.

Interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-stochastic mixed-integer programming approach for environmental management under multiple uncertainties.

PubMed

Guo, P; Huang, G H

2010-03-01

In this study, an interval-parameter semi-infinite fuzzy-chance-constrained mixed-integer linear programming (ISIFCIP) approach is developed for supporting long-term planning of waste-management systems under multiple uncertainties in the City of Regina, Canada. The method improves upon the existing interval-parameter semi-infinite programming (ISIP) and fuzzy-chance-constrained programming (FCCP) by incorporating uncertainties expressed as dual uncertainties of functional intervals and multiple uncertainties of distributions with fuzzy-interval admissible probability of violating constraint within a general optimization framework. The binary-variable solutions represent the decisions of waste-management-facility expansion, and the continuous ones are related to decisions of waste-flow allocation. The interval solutions can help decision-makers to obtain multiple decision alternatives, as well as provide bases for further analyses of tradeoffs between waste-management cost and system-failure risk. In the application to the City of Regina, Canada, two scenarios are considered. In Scenario 1, the City's waste-management practices would be based on the existing policy over the next 25 years. The total diversion rate for the residential waste would be approximately 14%. Scenario 2 is associated with a policy for waste minimization and diversion, where 35% diversion of residential waste should be achieved within 15 years, and 50% diversion over 25 years. In this scenario, not only landfill would be expanded, but also CF and MRF would be expanded. Through the scenario analyses, useful decision support for the City's solid-waste managers and decision-makers has been generated. Three special characteristics of the proposed method make it unique compared with other optimization techniques that deal with uncertainties. Firstly, it is useful for tackling multiple uncertainties expressed as intervals, functional intervals, probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations; secondly, it has capability in addressing the temporal variations of the functional intervals; thirdly, it can facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of facility-expansion planning and waste-flow allocation within a multi-facility, multi-period and multi-option context. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Management of diabetes mellitus in children and adolescents: engaging in physical activity.

PubMed

Nadella, Silpa; Indyk, Justin A; Kamboj, Manmohan K

2017-07-01

Regular physical activity is an important component in the management of both type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T1DM and T2DM), as it has the potential to improve glycemic control, delay cardiovascular complications, and increase overall well-being. Unfortunately, many children and adolescents with diabetes do not partake in regular exercise and physical activity for multiple reasons. This review identifies the barriers to participation from the aspect of the patient, caregiver, and the healthcare provider. The management of physical activity of children and adolescents with diabetes mellitus is unique and requires an understanding of exercise physiology and how it differs in these children and adolescents from those without the condition. These individuals are at risk for important and potentially life threatening complications including, but not limited to, severe or delayed nocturnal hypoglycemia. It is essential to identify these risks as well as, monitor and manage adjustments to carbohydrate intake and insulin dosing through basal-bolus regimen or insulin pump adjustments appropriately before, during, and after the exercise activity. This review discusses these issues and also outlines differences in management between patients with T1DM and T2DM.

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices.

PubMed

Dusheiko, Mark; Gravelle, Hugh; Martin, Stephen; Smith, Peter C

2015-10-01

To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5-2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Bet-hedging applications for conservation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boyce, M.S.; Kirsch, E.M.; Servheen, C.

2002-01-01

One of the early tenets of conservation biology is that population viability is enhanced by maintaining multiple populations of a species. The strength of this tenet is justified by principles of bet-hedging. Management strategies that reduce variance in population size will also reduce risk of extinction. Asynchrony in population fluctuations in independent populations reduces variance in the aggregate of populations whereas environmental correlation among areas increases the risk that all populations will go extinct. We review the theoretical rationale of bet-hedging and suggest applications for conservation management of least terns in Nebraska and grizzly bears in the northern Rocky Mountains of the United States. The risk of extinction for least terns will be reduced if we can sustain the small central Platte River population in addition to the larger population on the lower Platte. Similarly, by restoring grizzly bears to the Bitterroot wilderness of Idaho and Montana can reduce the probability of extinction for grizzly bears in the Rocky Mountains of the United States by as much as 69-93%.

Obesity Cardiometabolic Comorbidity Prevalence in Children in a Rural Weight-Management Program.

PubMed

O'Hara, Valerie; Browne, Nancy; Fathima, Samreen; Sorondo, Barbara; Bayleran, Janet; Johnston, Starr; Hastey, Kathrin

2017-01-01

This descriptive study examines the prevalence of obesity-related cardiometabolic (CM) risk factors using CM laboratory metrics, in 3 to 19 year olds presenting to a rural American Academy of Pediatrics stage 3 multidisciplinary weight management clinic based on gender, age ranges, and obesity classes. From 2009 to 2016, 382 children (body mass index ≥85th percentile) enrolled. Multiple logistic regression determined the effects of age, gender, or obesity class on CM risk factors. Odds of elevated insulin were more significant in 15 to 19 year olds than in 3 to 5 year olds, or in 6 to 11 year olds. Obesity class III had higher odds than class II, class I, and overweight in having elevated insulin; twice likely than class II for having low high-density lipoprotein; and twice as likely than class I for high triglycerides. Adolescents and obesity class III categories have significant CM risk but the burden in younger and less severe obesity cohorts cannot be underestimated.

Review of foreign body ingestion and esophageal food impaction management in adolescents.

PubMed

Sahn, Benjamin; Mamula, Petar; Ford, Carol A

2014-08-01

Foreign body ingestion is a common clinical scenario among patients of all ages. The immediate risk to the patient ranges from negligible to life threatening. Initial and follow-up management strategies depend on multiple patient and ingested object-related factors. Available literature on this topic tends to focus on the small child or adult, leaving the clinician caring for adolescents to extrapolate this information to guide decision making for individual patients. This article reviews foreign body ingestion literature with important implications to the adolescent patient and raises awareness of some highly dangerous objects such as large button batteries, high-powered magnets, long sharps, narcotic packages, and super absorbent objects. An additional focus includes the management of esophageal food impaction. We highlight the unique aspects to the care of the adolescent with intentional ingestion and co-morbid psychiatric illness. The article concludes by discussing the challenges to prevention of ingestion in the at-risk patient. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anesthesia and ventilation strategies in children with asthma: part I - preoperative assessment.

PubMed

Regli, Adrian; von Ungern-Sternberg, Britta S

2014-06-01

Asthma is a common disease in the pediatric population, and anesthetists are increasingly confronted with asthmatic children undergoing elective surgery. This first of this two-part review provides a brief overview of the current knowledge on the underlying physiology and pathophysiology of asthma and focuses on the preoperative assessment and management in children with asthma. This also includes preoperative strategies to optimize lung function of asthmatic children undergoing surgery. The second part of this review focuses on the immediate perioperative anesthetic management including ventilation strategies. Multiple observational trials assessing perioperative respiratory adverse events in healthy and asthmatic children provide the basis for identifying risk factors in the patient's (family) history that aid the preoperative identification of at-risk children. Asthma treatment outside anesthesia is well founded on a large body of evidence. Optimization and to some extent intensifying asthma treatment can optimize lung function, reduce bronchial hyperreactivity, and minimize the risk of perioperative respiratory adverse events. To minimize the considerable risk of perioperative respiratory adverse events in asthmatic children, a good understanding of the underlying physiology is vital. Furthermore, a thorough preoperative assessment to identify children who may benefit of an intensified medical treatment thereby minimizing airflow obstruction and bronchial hyperreactivity is the first pillar of a preventive perioperative management of asthmatic children. The second pillar, an individually adjusted anesthesia management aiming to reduce perioperative adverse events, is discussed in the second part of this review.

Targeting obesity-related adipose tissue dysfunction to prevent cancer development and progression

PubMed Central

Gucalp, Ayca; Iyengar, Neil M.; Hudis, Clifford A.; Dannenberg, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

The incidence of obesity, a leading modifiable risk factor for common solid tumors, is increasing. Effective interventions are needed to minimize the public health implications of obesity. Although the mechanisms linking increased adiposity to malignancy are incompletely understood, growing evidence points to complex interactions among multiple systemic and tissue-specific pathways including inflamed white adipose tissue. The metabolic and inflammatory consequences of white adipose tissue dysfunction collectively provide a plausible explanation for the link between overweight/obesity and carcinogenesis. Gaining a better understanding of these underlying molecular pathways and developing risk assessment tools that identify at-risk populations will be critical in implementing effective and novel cancer prevention and management strategies. PMID:26970134

Exercise in pregnancy.

PubMed

Lewis, Emma

2014-08-01

Exercise is an inconsistently managed area in the health of expectant mothers. It is an area where family doctors have an opportunity to be well informed and willing to give advice. To provide simple advice on safe exercise practice in pregnancy. Exercise in pregnancy has multiple benefits for the mother, including reduced risk of mental health problems, diabetes and hypertension, and faster recovery after delivery. There are no proven risks to the fetus if practiced safely. Understanding the physiological changes of pregnancy and the possible complications of high-intensity or contact sport is important but in general, moderate levels of exercise 3-4 times per week is safe for both mother and baby in low-risk pregnancies.

Impact of concomitant trauma in the management of blunt splenic injuries.

PubMed

Lo, Albert; Matheson, Anne-Marie; Adams, Dave

2004-09-10

Conservative management of isolated blunt splenic injuries has become widely accepted for haemodynamically stable patients, but may be untenable in those with multiple injuries. A retrospective review was performed to evaluate of our cumulative experience with non-operative management of splenic injuries, and to identify the risk factors for operative management. Eighty patients were identified. Demographics, mechanism of injury, injury severity score (ISS), clinical signs at presentation, utility of computed tomography scans and methods of treatment (operative management vs conservative management) were documented and statistically analysed to identify predictors for operative management. Initially, 45 patients (56%) were managed without operation, while 35 patients underwent urgent laparotomy - with 26 (74% in operative group) of these having splenectomy performed. Two patients (out of 45) failed conservative management and required delayed splenectomy, a 96% success rate for intended conservative management. Thus, overall rates of 54% non-operative management and 65% splenic conservation were achieved. The mean ISS of the operative management group (ISS=30) was higher than that of the non-operative treatment group (ISS=13, p<0.05), reflecting not only the grade of the splenic injury but also the severity of concomitant trauma. Risk factors for patients with blunt splenic injuries requiring operative management include ISS > or =16, hypotension, GCS < or =13, and requirement for blood transfusion (p<0.05). Appropriate patient selection is the most important element of non-operative management. Patients with splenic injuries who are haemodynamically stable can be managed non-operatively with acceptable outcome. However, in the presence of concomitant trauma, there is an increasing trend towards operative management.

Managing Chronic Pain in Special Populations with Emphasis on Pediatric, Geriatric, and Drug Abuser Populations

PubMed Central

Baumbauer, Kyle M.; Young, Erin E.; Starkweather, Angela R.; Guite, Jessica W.; Russell, Beth S.; Manworren, Renee C.

2015-01-01

Synopsis Chronic pain represents a significant health and societal concern. In the adult population chronic pain can lead to loss of productivity, earning potential, and decreased quality of life. Research has typically focused on otherwise healthy adults with chronic pain conditions; however there appear to be distinct groups with increased vulnerability for the emergence of chronic pain. These groups may be defined by developmental status and/or life circumstances that increase the risk of injury or for which treatment of pain is less effective. Within the pediatric, geriatric, and drug abuser populations, chronic pain also represents a significant health issue, which can lead to increased absenteeism during school age years, as well as decreased quality of life and increased risk of additional adverse health conditions later in life. Currently, little is known about the mechanisms that encourage the development of chronic pain in these groups, and, consequently, pediatric, geriatric, and substance abuse patients represent challenging cohorts to manage. We focus on known anatomic, physiologic, and genetic mechanisms underlying chronic pain in these populations, and highlight the need for a multimodal approach from multiple healthcare professionals for management of chronic pain in those with the most risk. PMID:26614727

Predicting Health Resilience in Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Test of the Resilience Model Framework

PubMed Central

Huang, Bin; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2015-01-01

Objectives This research examined whether individual and family-level factors during the transition from late childhood to early adolescence protected individuals from an increased risk of poor glycemic control across time, which is a predictor of future diabetes-related complications (i.e., health resilience). Methods This longitudinal, multisite study included 239 patients with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c. Individual and family-level factors included: demographic variables, youth behavioral regulation, adherence (frequency of blood glucose monitoring), diabetes self-management, level of parental support for diabetes autonomy, level of youth mastery and responsibility for diabetes management, and diabetes-related family conflict. Results Longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that testing blood glucose more frequently, better self-management, and less diabetes-related family conflict were indicators of health resilience. Conclusions Multiple individual and family-level factors predicted risk for future health complications. Future research should develop interventions targeting specific individual and family-level factors to sustain glycemic control within recommended targets, which reduces the risk of developing future health complications during the transition to adolescence and adulthood. PMID:26152400

A systematic conservation planning approach to fire risk management in Natura 2000 sites.

PubMed

Foresta, Massimiliano; Carranza, Maria Laura; Garfì, Vittorio; Di Febbraro, Mirko; Marchetti, Marco; Loy, Anna

2016-10-01

A primary challenge in conservation biology is to preserve the most representative biodiversity while simultaneously optimizing the efforts associated with conservation. In Europe, the implementation of the Natura 2000 network requires protocols to recognize and map threats to biodiversity and to identify specific mitigation actions. We propose a systematic conservation planning approach to optimize management actions against specific threats based on two fundamental parameters: biodiversity values and threat pressure. We used the conservation planning software Marxan to optimize a fire management plan in a Natura 2000 coastal network in southern Italy. We address three primary questions: i) Which areas are at high fire risk? ii) Which areas are the most valuable for threatened biodiversity? iii) Which areas should receive priority risk-mitigation actions for the optimal effect?, iv) which fire-prevention actions are feasible in the management areas?. The biodiversity values for the Natura 2000 spatial units were derived from the distribution maps of 18 habitats and 89 vertebrate species of concern in Europe (Habitat Directive 92/43/EEC). The threat pressure map, defined as fire probability, was obtained from digital layers of fire risk and of fire frequency. Marxan settings were defined as follows: a) planning units of 40 × 40 m, b) conservation features defined as all habitats and vertebrate species of European concern occurring in the study area, c) conservation targets defined according with fire sensitivity and extinction risk of conservation features, and d) costs determined as the complement of fire probabilities. We identified 23 management areas in which to concentrate efforts for the optimal reduction of fire-induced effects. Because traditional fire prevention is not feasible for most of policy habitats included in the management areas, alternative prevention practices were identified that allows the conservation of the vegetation structure. The proposed approach has potential applications for multiple landscapes, threats and spatial scales and could be extended to other valuable natural areas, including protected areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Achieving Effective Risk Management Reduction Throughout Decommissioning at the Columbus Closure Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson, K.D.

2006-07-01

Nuclear facility decontamination, dismantlement, and demolition activities provide a myriad of challenges along the path to reaching a safe, effective, and compliant decommissioning. Among the challenges faced during decommissioning, is the constant management and technical effort to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize the potential of risks of radiation exposures and other hazards to the worker, the surrounding community, and the environment. Management strategies to eliminate, mitigate, or minimize risks include incorporating strong safety and As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) principles into an integrated work planning process. Technical and operational strategies may include utilizing predictive risk analysis tools to establish contaminationmore » limits for demolition and using remote handling equipment to reduce occupational and radiation exposures to workers. ECC and E2 Closure Services, LLC (Closure Services) have effectively utilized these management and technical tools to eliminate, mitigate, and reduce radiation exposures under contract to the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the decontamination and decommissioning Columbus Closure Project (CCP). In particular, Closure Services achieved significant dose reduction during the dismantling, decontamination, and demolition activities for Building JN-1. Management strategies during the interior dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of the facility demanded an integrated work planning processes that involved project disciplines. Integrated planning processes identified multiple opportunities to incorporate the use of remote handling equipment during the interior dismantling and demolition activities within areas of high radiation. Technical strategies employed predictive risk analysis tools to set upper bounding contamination limits, allowed for the radiological demolition of the building without exceeding administrative dose limits to the worker, general public, and the environment. Adhering to management and technical strategies during the dismantlement, decontamination, and demolition of Building JN-1 enabled Closure Services to achieve strong ALARA performance, maintain absolute compliance under the regulatory requirements and meeting licensing conditions for decommissioning. (authors)« less

Practical aspects of the control of cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus and the metabolic syndrome

PubMed Central

Cerghizan, Anca; Bala, Cornelia; Nita, Cristina; Hancu, Nicolae

2007-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is unanimously recognized as the major burden in type 2 diabetes, in terms of both mortality and morbidity. There is an extensive evidence coming from epidemiological studies that supports this statement. The presence of the metabolic syndrome confers a higher risk of long-term death, and dysglycemia appears to be responsible for the most of the excess risk. The metabolic syndrome also has an essential role in the modern concept of cardiovascular prevention. Global cardiovascular risk represents the action and consequences of all risk factors that simultaneously or sequentially act on the body, leading to atherogenesis/atherosclerosis. In daily practice, a stepwise approach to control cardiovascular risk in people with type 2 diabetes has been proposed. This algorithm comprises three steps: identification of cardiovascular risk factors, interpretation of global cardiovascular risk, and intervention for all identified risk factors and diseases. In the past decades, the whole concept of diabetes and the metabolic syndrome care has undergone a radical change. From here the concept of modern management of those diseases emerged: early, multi-factorial and intensive control. This concept emphasized early and aggressive interventions for all cardiovascular risk factors in the long-term management. The model of multiple cardiovascular risk factor intervention ought to be implemented in daily practice as much as possible. This offers a unique opportunity to reduce the devastating cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in people with type 2 diabetes and the metabolic syndrome. PMID:18650987

Health risks from exposure to Legionella in reclaimed water aerosols: Toilet flushing, spray irrigation, and cooling towers.

PubMed

Hamilton, Kerry A; Hamilton, Mark T; Johnson, William; Jjemba, Patrick; Bukhari, Zia; LeChevallier, Mark; Haas, Charles N

2018-05-01

The use of reclaimed water brings new challenges for the water industry in terms of maintaining water quality while increasing sustainability. Increased attention has been devoted to opportunistic pathogens, especially Legionella pneumophila, due to its growing importance as a portion of the waterborne disease burden in the United States. Infection occurs when a person inhales a mist containing Legionella bacteria. The top three uses for reclaimed water (cooling towers, spray irrigation, and toilet flushing) that generate aerosols were evaluated for Legionella health risks in reclaimed water using quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). Risks are compared using data from nineteen United States reclaimed water utilities measured with culture-based methods, quantitative PCR (qPCR), and ethidium-monoazide-qPCR. Median toilet flushing annual infection risks exceeded 10 -4 considering multiple toilet types, while median clinical severity infection risks did not exceed this value. Sprinkler and cooling tower risks varied depending on meteorological conditions and operational characteristics such as drift eliminator performance. However, the greatest differences between risk scenarios were due to 1) the dose response model used (infection or clinical severity infection) 2) population at risk considered (residential or occupational) and 3) differences in laboratory analytical method. Theoretical setback distances necessary to achieve a median annual infection risk level of 10 -4 are proposed for spray irrigation and cooling towers. In both cooling tower and sprinkler cases, Legionella infection risks were non-trivial at potentially large setback distances, and indicate other simultaneous management practices could be needed to manage risks. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the most influential factors for variability in risks were the concentration of Legionella and aerosol partitioning and/or efficiency across all models, highlighting the importance of strategies to manage Legionella occurrence in reclaimed water. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Premise to Implement a Grading System to Evaluate the Sanitary Level in Food Service Establishments in Milan, Italy

PubMed Central

Razzini, Katia

2015-01-01

The regulatory framework of the official controls on food safety, the criteria and methods from the planning of interventions in the field of official control to the management of information flows, and the standards described in the operation manual of the local competent authorities drafted by the Lombardy Region (2011) were evaluated. A questionnaire consisting of n. 10 questions with multiple answers draft in partnership with EPAM (the Association of Provincial Public Retail and catering businesses in Milan) to n. 107 Food service establishments of Milan shows that 92% of managers approve the introduction of a grading system. The regulatory framework is planned to support the implementation of risk assignment, unfortunately the attribution of risk category of retail and catering businesses is still different among regions. PMID:27800403

Assessments of habitat preferences and quality depend on spatial scale and metrics of fitness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chalfoun, A.D.; Martin, T.E.

2007-01-01

1. Identifying the habitat features that influence habitat selection and enhance fitness is critical for effective management. Ecological theory predicts that habitat choices should be adaptive, such that fitness is enhanced in preferred habitats. However, studies often report mismatches between habitat preferences and fitness consequences across a wide variety of taxa based on a single spatial scale and/or a single fitness component. 2. We examined whether habitat preferences of a declining shrub steppe songbird, the Brewer's sparrow Spizella breweri, were adaptive when multiple reproductive fitness components and spatial scales (landscape, territory and nest patch) were considered. 3. We found that birds settled earlier and in higher densities, together suggesting preference, in landscapes with greater shrub cover and height. Yet nest success was not higher in these landscapes; nest success was primarily determined by nest predation rates. Thus landscape preferences did not match nest predation risk. Instead, nestling mass and the number of nesting attempts per pair increased in preferred landscapes, raising the possibility that landscapes were chosen on the basis of food availability rather than safe nest sites. 4. At smaller spatial scales (territory and nest patch), birds preferred different habitat features (i.e. density of potential nest shrubs) that reduced nest predation risk and allowed greater season-long reproductive success. 5. Synthesis and applications. Habitat preferences reflect the integration of multiple environmental factors across multiple spatial scales, and individuals may have more than one option for optimizing fitness via habitat selection strategies. Assessments of habitat quality for management prescriptions should ideally include analysis of diverse fitness consequences across multiple ecologically relevant spatial scales. ?? 2007 The Authors.

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Wofford, John E.B.; Smith, D.R.; Dennis, J.; Hawkins-Hoffman, C.; Schaberl, J.; Foley, M.; Bogle, M.

2014-01-01

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

La Conchita Landslide Risk Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kropp, A.; Johnson, L.; Magnusen, W.; Hitchcock, C. S.

2009-12-01

Following the disastrous landslide in La Conchita in 2005 that resulted in ten deaths, the State of California selected our team to prepare a risk assessment for a committee of key stakeholders. The stakeholders represented the State of California, Ventura County, members of the La Conchita community, the railroad, and the upslope ranch owner (where the slide originated); a group with widely varying views and interests. Our team was charged with characterizing the major hazards, developing a series of mitigation concepts, evaluating the benefits and costs of mitigation, and gathering stakeholder input throughout the process. Two unique elements of the study were the methodologies utilized for the consequence assessment and for the decision-making framework. La Conchita is exposed to multiple slope hazards, each with differing geographical distributions, as well as depth and velocity characteristics. Three consequence matrices were developed so that the potential financial losses, structural vulnerabilities, and human safety exposure could be evaluated. The matrices utilized semi-quantitative loss evaluations (both financial and life safety) based on a generalized understanding of likely vulnerability and hazard characteristics. The model provided a quantitative estimate of cumulative losses over a 50-year period, including losses of life based on FEMA evaluation criteria. Conceptual mitigation options and loss estimates were developed to provide a range of risk management solutions that were feasible from a cost-benefit standpoint. A decision tree approach was adopted to focus on fundamental risk management questions rather than on specific outcomes since the committee did not have a consensus view on the preferred solution. These questions included: 1. Over what time period can risks be tolerated before implementation of decisions? 2. Whose responsibility is it to identify a workable risk management solution? 3. Who will own the project? The decision tree developed for assessment can also be used in the reverse direction to evaluate a project impasse or to evaluate owners and time-frames associated with a particular risk management outcome. Although the processes developed were specific to the La Conchita study, we believe that they are applicable elsewhere for localized multi-hazard assessments and/or committee-led risk management efforts.

Patients, practices, and relationships: challenges and lessons learned from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN) CaRESS clinical trial.

PubMed

Love, Margaret M; Pearce, Kevin A; Williamson, M Ann; Barron, Mary A; Shelton, Brent J

2006-01-01

The Cardiovascular Risk Education and Social Support (CaRESS) study is a randomized controlled trial that evaluates a social support intervention toward reducing cardiovascular risk in type 2 diabetic patients. It involves multiple community-based practice sites from the Kentucky Ambulatory Network (KAN), which is a regional primary care practice-based research network (PBRN). CaRESS also implements multiple modes of data collection. The purpose of this methods article is to share lessons learned that might be useful to others developing or implementing complex studies that consent patients in PBRNs. Key points include building long-term relationships with the clinicians, adaptability when integrating into practice sites, adequate funding to support consistent data management and statistical support during all phases of the study, and creativity and perseverance for recruiting patients and practices while maintaining the integrity of the protocol.

Data article on disposition towards enhancing SMEs' performance through entrepreneurial orientations: Perspectives from a developing economy.

PubMed

Ibidunni, Ayodotun Stephen; Ibidunni, Oyebisi Mary; Olokundun, Maxwell Ayodele; Falola, Hezekiah Olubusayo; Salau, Odunayo Paul; Borishade, Taiye Tairat

2018-06-01

This article present data on the disposition of SME operators towards enhancing SMEs Performance through entrepreneurial orientations. Copies of structured questionnaire were administered to 102 SME owners/managers. Using descriptive and standard multiple regression statistical analysis, the data described how proactiveness, risk-taking and autonomy orientations significantly influenced SMEs' profitability, sales growth, customer satisfaction and new product success.

System-of-Systems Governance: New Patterns of Thought

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-10-01

Administrative Agent ESC/XPK 5 Eglin Street Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-2100 The ideas and findings in this report should not be construed as an...collaboration and authority, (2) motivation and accountability, (3) multiple models, (4) expectation of evolution, ( 5 ) highly fluid processes, and (6...executives • a mechanism to deliver value, manage performance, and mitigate risk • a method to assign accountability for decisions and performance

Advance Noise Control Fan II: Test Rig Fan Risk Management Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucero, John

2013-01-01

Since 1995 the Advanced Noise Control Fan (ANCF) has significantly contributed to the advancement of the understanding of the physics of fan tonal noise generation. The 9'x15' WT has successfully tested multiple high speed fan designs over the last several decades. This advanced several tone noise reduction concepts to higher TRL and the validation of fan tone noise prediction codes.

Investigating the potential to reduce flood risk through catchment-based land management techniques and interventions in the River Roe catchment, Cumbria,UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Callum; Reaney, Sim; Bracken, Louise; Butler, Lucy

2015-04-01

Throughout the United Kingdom flood risk is a growing problem and a significant proportion of the population are at risk from flooding throughout the country. Across England and Wales over 5 million people are believed to be at risk from fluvial, pluvial or coastal flooding (DEFRA, 2013). Increasingly communities that have not dealt with flooding before have recently experienced significant flood events. The communities of Stockdalewath and Highbridge in the Roe catchment, a tributary of the River Eden in Cumbria, UK, are an excellent example. The River Roe has a normal flow of less than 5m3 sec-1 occurring 97 percent of the time however there have been two flash floods of 98.8m3 sec-1 in January 2005 and 86.9m3 sec-1 in May 2013. These two flash flood events resulted in the inundation of numerous properties within the catchment with the 2013 event prompting the creation of the Roe Catchment Community Water Management Group which aims are to deliver a sustainable approach to managing the flood risk. Due to the distributed rural population the community fails the cost-benefit analysis for a centrally funded flood risk mitigation scheme. Therefore the at-risk community within the Roe catchment have to look for cost-effective, sustainable techniques and interventions to reduce the potential negative impacts of future events; this has resulted in a focus on natural flood risk management. This research investigates the potential to reduce flood risk through natural catchment-based land management techniques and interventions within the Roe catchment; providing a scientific base from with further action can be enacted. These interventions include changes to land management and land use, such as soil aeration and targeted afforestation, the creation of runoff attenuation features and the construction of in channel features, such as debris dams. Natural flood management (NFM) application has been proven to be effective when reducing flood risk in smaller catchments and the potential to transfer these benefits to the Roe catchment (~69km2) have been assessed. Furthermore these flood mitigation features have the potential to deliver wider environmental improvements throughout the catchment and hence the potential for multiple benefits such as diffuse pollution reduction and habitat creation are considered. The research explores the impact of NFM techniques, flood storage areas or afforestation for example, with a view to enhancing local scale habitats. The research combines innovative catchment modelling techniques, both risk-based approaches (SCIMAP Flood) and spatially distributed hydrological simulation modelling (CRUM3), with in-field monitoring and observation of flow pathways and tributary response to rainfall using time-lapse cameras. Additional work with the local community and stakeholders will identify the range and location of potential catchment-based land management techniques and interventions being assessed; natural flood management implementation requires the participation and cooperation of landowners and local community to be successful (Howgate and Kenyon, 2009).

Alternative research funding to improve clinical outcomes: model of prediction and prevention of sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Myerburg, Robert J; Ullmann, Steven G

2015-04-01

Although identification and management of cardiovascular risk markers have provided important population risk insights and public health benefits, individual risk prediction remains challenging. Using sudden cardiac death risk as a base case, the complex epidemiology of sudden cardiac death risk and the substantial new funding required to study individual risk are explored. Complex epidemiology derives from the multiple subgroups having different denominators and risk profiles, while funding limitations emerge from saturation of conventional sources of research funding without foreseeable opportunities for increases. A resolution to this problem would have to emerge from new sources of funding targeted to individual risk prediction. In this analysis, we explore the possibility of a research funding strategy that would offer business incentives to the insurance industries, while providing support for unresolved research goals. The model is developed for the case of sudden cardiac death risk, but the concept is applicable to other areas of the medical enterprise. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Merits and potential downsides of the 2013 ACC/AHA cholesterol management guidelines.

PubMed

Gotto, A M; Moon, J E

2014-06-01

New guidelines from the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association on cholesterol management introduced substantial changes from the previous Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines and generated an immediate storm of controversy upon their release in November 2013. Four categories of individuals that can benefit from statin therapy, including three high-risk groups, have been identified. The fourth category of primary prevention has proven to be the most contentious, with criticism centering on the algorithm used to estimate ten-year risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and the optimal threshold for statin therapy. Although the risk assessment algorithm can be further refined, it represents an improvement from the previous calculator since it better captures risk in women and African Americans. However, the elimination of lipid targets in the new guidelines discounts a wealth of clinical trial and epidemiological evidence indicating that, with regards to low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, "lower is better." Recommendations regarding the use of nonstatin drugs, while appropriate, could potentially be revised in the future. In general, the new guidelines stress the necessity of addressing the multiple factors that contribute to cardiovascular risk, and they provide a valuable opportunity for physicians to address the importance of lifestyle modifications to lower a patient's overall risk. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clostridium difficile in the Long-Term Care Facility: Prevention and Management

PubMed Central

Jump, Robin L. P.; Donskey, Curtis J.

2014-01-01

Residents of long-term care facilities are at high risk for Clostridium difficile infection due to frequent antibiotic exposure in a population already rendered vulnerable to infection due to advanced age, multiple comorbid conditions and communal living conditions. Moreover, asymptomatic carriage of toxigenic C. difficile and recurrent infections are prevalent in this population. Here, we discuss epidemiology and management of C. difficile infection among residents of long-term care facilities. Also, recognizing that both the population and culture differs significantly from that of hospitals, we also address prevention strategies specific to LTCFs. PMID:25685657

Managing Analysis Models in the Design Process

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Briggs, Clark

2006-01-01

Design of large, complex space systems depends on significant model-based support for exploration of the design space. Integrated models predict system performance in mission-relevant terms given design descriptions and multiple physics-based numerical models. Both the design activities and the modeling activities warrant explicit process definitions and active process management to protect the project from excessive risk. Software and systems engineering processes have been formalized and similar formal process activities are under development for design engineering and integrated modeling. JPL is establishing a modeling process to define development and application of such system-level models.

Visceral adiposity as a target for the management of the metabolic syndrome.

PubMed

Kishida, Ken; Funahashi, Tohru; Matsuzawa, Yuji; Shimomura, Iichiro

2012-05-01

Atherosclerosis, the underlying cause of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ACVD), develops due not only to a single cardiovascular risk factor but to a variety of complex factors. The concept of the multiple cardiometabolic risk factor clustering syndrome has been proposed as a highly atherogenic state, independent of hypercholesterolemia and smoking. Body fat distribution, especially visceral fat accumulation, is a major correlate of a cluster of diabetogenic, atherogenic, prothrombotic, and proinflammatory metabolic abnormalities referred to as the metabolic syndrome, with dysfunctional adipocytes and dysregulated production of adipocytokines (hypoadiponectinemia). Medical research has focused on visceral adiposity as an important component of the syndrome in Japanese subjects with a mild degree of adiposity compared with Western subjects. For the prevention of ACVD at least in Japan, it might be practical to stratify subjects with multiple risk factors for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease based on visceral fat accumulation. Visceral fat reduction through health promotion programs using risk factor-oriented approaches may be effective in reducing ACVD events, as well as producing improvement in risks and hypoadiponectinemia. This review article discusses visceral adiposity as a key player in the syndrome. Visceral fat reduction with life-style modification is a potentially useful strategy in the prevention of ACVD in patients with the metabolic syndrome.

Web Application Software for Ground Operations Planning Database (GOPDb) Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lanham, Clifton; Kallner, Shawn; Gernand, Jeffrey

2013-01-01

A Web application facilitates collaborative development of the ground operations planning document. This will reduce costs and development time for new programs by incorporating the data governance, access control, and revision tracking of the ground operations planning data. Ground Operations Planning requires the creation and maintenance of detailed timelines and documentation. The GOPDb Web application was created using state-of-the-art Web 2.0 technologies, and was deployed as SaaS (Software as a Service), with an emphasis on data governance and security needs. Application access is managed using two-factor authentication, with data write permissions tied to user roles and responsibilities. Multiple instances of the application can be deployed on a Web server to meet the robust needs for multiple, future programs with minimal additional cost. This innovation features high availability and scalability, with no additional software that needs to be bought or installed. For data governance and security (data quality, management, business process management, and risk management for data handling), the software uses NAMS. No local copy/cloning of data is permitted. Data change log/tracking is addressed, as well as collaboration, work flow, and process standardization. The software provides on-line documentation and detailed Web-based help. There are multiple ways that this software can be deployed on a Web server to meet ground operations planning needs for future programs. The software could be used to support commercial crew ground operations planning, as well as commercial payload/satellite ground operations planning. The application source code and database schema are owned by NASA.

Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

PubMed

Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

2018-06-01

Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Deep Learning and Supervised Learning Methods to Recognize Nonlinear Hidden Pattern in Water Stress Levels from Spatiotemporal Datasets across Rural and Urban US Counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eisenhart, T.; Josset, L.; Rising, J. A.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

In the wake of recent water crises, the need to understand and predict the risk of water stress in urban and rural areas has grown. This understanding has the potential to improve decision making in public resource management, policy making, risk management and investment decisions. Assuming an underlying relationship between urban and rural water stress and observable features, we apply Deep Learning and Supervised Learning models to uncover hidden nonlinear patterns from spatiotemporal datasets. Results of interest includes prediction accuracy on extreme categories (i.e. urban areas highly prone to water stress) and not solely the average risk for urban or rural area, which adds complexity to the tuning of model parameters. We first label urban water stressed counties using annual water quality violations and compile a comprehensive spatiotemporal dataset that captures the yearly evolution of climatic, demographic and economic factors of more than 3,000 US counties over the 1980-2010 period. As county-level data reporting is not done on a yearly basis, we test multiple imputation methods to get around the issue of missing data. Using Python libraries, TensorFlow and scikit-learn, we apply and compare the ability of, amongst other methods, Recurrent Neural Networks (testing both LSTM and GRU cells), Convolutional Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines to predict urban water stress. We evaluate the performance of those models over multiple time spans and combine methods to diminish the risk of overfitting and increase prediction power on test sets. This methodology seeks to identify hidden nonlinear patterns to assess the predominant data features that influence urban and rural water stress. Results from this application at the national scale will assess the performance of deep learning models to predict water stress risk areas across all US counties and will highlight a predominant Machine Learning method for modeling water stress risk using spatiotemporal data.

Designing and operating infrastructure for nonstationary flood risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doss-Gollin, J.; Farnham, D. J.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

Climate exhibits organized low-frequency and regime-like variability at multiple time scales, causing the risk associated with climate extremes such as floods and droughts to vary in time. Despite broad recognition of this nonstationarity, there has been little theoretical development of ideas for the design and operation of infrastructure considering the regime structure of such changes and their potential predictability. We use paleo streamflow reconstructions to illustrate an approach to the design and operation of infrastructure to address nonstationary flood and drought risk. Specifically, we consider the tradeoff between flood control and conservation storage, and develop design and operation principles for allocating these storage volumes considering both a m-year project planning period and a n-year historical sampling record. As n increases, the potential uncertainty in probabilistic estimates of the return periods associated with the T-year extreme event decreases. As the duration m of the future operation period decreases, the uncertainty associated with the occurrence of the T-year event also increases. Finally, given the quasi-periodic nature of the system it may be possible to offer probabilistic predictions of the conditions in the m-year future period, especially if m is small. In the context of such predictions, one can consider that a m-year prediction may have lower bias, but higher variance, than would be associated with using a stationary estimate from the preceding n years. This bias-variance trade-off, and the potential for considering risk management for multiple values of m, provides an interesting system design challenge. We use wavelet-based simulation models in a Bayesian framework to estimate these biases and uncertainty distributions and devise a risk-optimized decision rule for the allocation of flood and conservation storage. The associated theoretical development also provides a methodology for the sizing of storage for new infrastructure under nonstationarity, and an examination of risk adaptation measures which consider both short term and long term options simultaneously.

Specific aspects of modern life for people with multiple sclerosis: considerations for the practitioner

PubMed Central

Oreja-Guevara, Celia; Wiendl, Heinz; Airas, Laura

2014-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, debilitating, neurodegenerative disease that has a high impact on patients’ quality of life. Individuals are often diagnosed in early adulthood and are faced with the difficulty of managing their lifestyle within the context of this chronic illness. Here we review factors that influence the disease course and the challenges that might be encountered when managing patients with MS. The majority of diagnosed patients are women of childbearing age, making pregnancy-related issues a key concern. MS typically stabilizes during pregnancy and evidence suggests that the disease has no impact on the risk of complications or outcomes. However, the effect of disease-modifying therapies on outcomes is less clear, and discontinuation of treatment prior to pregnancy or when breastfeeding is recommended. Awareness of genetic risk factors is important for patients planning a family, as several genes increase the risk of MS. Further aspects that require consideration include infections, vaccinations, environmental factors, surgery and the emergence of osteoporosis. Vaccinations are generally not a risk factor for MS and may be beneficial in terms of protection against infection and reducing the number of relapses. Environmental factors such as vitamin D deficiency, low exposure to sunlight, smoking and Epstein−Barr virus infection can all negatively influence the disease course. Furthermore, osteoporosis is generally higher in patients with MS than the general population, and the risk is increased by the environmental and genetic factors associated with the disease; bone mineral density should be assessed and smoking cessation and correction of serum vitamin D levels are recommended. Finally, as patients with MS are typically young, they are at low risk of surgery-related complications, although they should be carefully monitored postoperatively. Awareness of, and planning around, these factors may minimize the impact of the disease on patients’ lifestyle. PMID:24587828

Practitioner Perspectives on a Disaster Management Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moe, K.; Evans, J. D.

2012-12-01

The Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) Working Group on Information Systems and Services (WGISS) is constructing a high-level reference model for the use of satellites, sensors, models, and associated data products from many different global data and service providers in disaster response and risk assessment. To help streamline broad, effective access to satellite information, the reference model provides structured, shared, holistic views of distributed systems and services - in effect, a common vocabulary describing the system-of-systems building blocks and how they are composed for disaster management. These views are being inferred from real-world experience, by documenting and analyzing how practitioners have gone about using or providing satellite data to manage real disaster events or to assess or mitigate hazard risks. Crucial findings and insights come from case studies of three kinds of experience: - Disaster response and recovery (such as the 2008 Sichuan/Wenchuan earthquake in China; and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan); - Technology pilot projects (such as NASA's Flood Sensor Web pilot in Namibia, or the interagency Virtual Mission Operation Center); - Information brokers (such as the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters, or the U.K.-based Disaster Management Constellation). Each of these experiences sheds light on the scope and stakeholders of disaster management; the information requirements for various disaster types and phases; and the services needed for effective access to information by a variety of users. They also highlight needs and gaps in the supply of satellite information for disaster management. One need stands out: rapid and effective access to complex data from multiple sources, across inter-organizational boundaries. This is the near-real-time challenge writ large: gaining access to satellite data resources from multiple organizationally distant and geographically disperse sources, to meet an urgent need. The case studies and reference model will highlight gaps in data supply and data delivery technologies, and suggest recommended priorities for satellite missions, ground data systems, and third-party service providers.

Use of sediment quality guidelines and related tools for the asssessment of contaminated sediments: Executive summary sooklet of a SETAC Pellston Workshop

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wenning, R. J.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

2002-01-01

This publication summarizes the results of a Pellston Workshop sponsored by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), held 17-22 August 2002 in Fairmont, Montana, USA. The full technical proceedings of the workshop will be published separately by SET AC in 2003. Previous SETAC workshops have focused on sediment ecological risk assessment (ERA) (Dickson et al. 1987; Ingersoll et al. 1997) and porewater toxicity testing (Carr and Nipper 2003). Another recent workshop addressed the application of weight-of-evidence (WOE) methods in ERA (Burton et al. 2002). These previous workshops focused on how, when, and why ERAs are needed in sediment assessments. However, more focused discussion among scientists, environmental regulators, and environmental managers is now needed to build on this previous work. Specifically, additional guidance is needed on procedures that can be used to integrate the information derived from multiple chemical and biological lines of evidence (LOE). These LOE, which are developed through the application of different assessment tools, often include the use of chemically based sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) to evaluate sediment contamination and to help practitioners in sediment assessment and management formulate risk management decisions. This workshop focused on evaluation of the scientific foundations supporting different chemically based numeric SQGs and methods to improve the integration of SQGs into different sediment quality assessment frameworks that include information derived from multiple chemical and biological LOE.

Coagulation management in patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures.

PubMed

Robba, Chiara; Bertuetti, Rita; Rasulo, Frank; Bertuccio, Alessando; Matta, Basil

2017-10-01

Management of coagulation in neurosurgical procedures is challenging. In this contest, it is imperative to avoid further intracranial bleeding. Perioperative bleeding can be associated with a number of factors, including anticoagulant drugs and coagulation status but is also linked to the characteristic and the site of the intracranial disorder. The aim of this review will be to focus primarily on the new evidence regarding the management of coagulation in patients undergoing craniotomy for neurosurgical procedures. Antihemostatic and anticoagulant drugs have shown to be associated with perioperative bleeding. On the other hand, an increased risk of venous thromboembolism and hypercoagulative state after elective and emergency neurosurgery, in particular after brain tumor surgery, has been described in several patients. To balance the risk between thrombosis and bleeding, it is important to be familiar with the perioperative changes in coagulation and with the recent management guidelines for anticoagulated patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures, in particular for those taking new direct anticoagulants. We have considered the current clinical trials and literature regarding both safety and efficacy of deep venous thrombosis prophylaxis in the neurosurgical population. These were mainly trials concerning both elective surgical and intensive care patients with a poor grade intracranial bleed or multiple traumas with an associated severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Coagulation management remains a major issue in patients undergoing neurosurgical procedures. However, in this field of research, literature quality is poor and further studies are necessary to identify the best strategies to minimize risks in this group of patients.

Prognosis after treatment with multiple dental implants under general anesthesia and sedation in a cerebral palsy patient with mental retardation: A case report.

PubMed

Hong, Young-Joon; Dan, Jung-Bae; Kim, Myung-Jin; Kim, Hyun Jeong; Seo, Kwang-Suk

2017-06-01

Cerebral palsy is a non-progressive disorder resulting from central nervous system damage caused by multiple factors. Almost all cerebral palsy patients have a movement disorder that makes dental treatment difficult. Oral hygiene management is difficult and the risks for periodontitis, dental caries and loss of multiple teeth are high. Placement of dental implants for multiple missing teeth in cerebral palsy patients needs multiple rounds of general anesthesia, and the prognosis is poor despite the expense. Therefore, making the decision to perform multiple dental implant treatments on cerebral palsy patients is difficult. A 33-year-old female patient with cerebral palsy and mental retardation was scheduled for multiple implant treatments. She underwent computed tomography (CT) under sedation and the operation of nine dental implants under general anesthesia. Implant-supported fixed prosthesis treatment was completed. During follow-up, she had the anterior incisors extracted and underwent the surgery of 3 additional dental implants, completing the prosthetic treatment. Although oral parafunctions existed due to cerebral palsy, no implant failure was observed 9 years after the first implant surgery.

Leadership of risk decision making in a complex, technology organization: The deliberative decision making model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flaming, Susan C.

2007-12-01

The continuing saga of satellite technology development is as much a story of successful risk management as of innovative engineering. How do program leaders on complex, technology projects manage high stakes risks that threaten business success and satellite performance? This grounded theory study of risk decision making portrays decision leadership practices at one communication satellite company. Integrated product team (IPT) leaders of multi-million dollar programs were interviewed and observed to develop an extensive description of the leadership skills required to navigate organizational influences and drive challenging risk decisions to closure. Based on the study's findings the researcher proposes a new decision making model, Deliberative Decision Making, to describe the program leaders' cognitive and organizational leadership practices. This Deliberative Model extends the insights of prominent decision making models including the rational (or classical) and the naturalistic and qualifies claims made by bounded rationality theory. The Deliberative Model describes how leaders proactively engage resources to play a variety of decision leadership roles. The Model incorporates six distinct types of leadership decision activities, undertaken in varying sequence based on the challenges posed by specific risks. Novel features of the Deliberative Decision Model include: an inventory of leadership methods for managing task challenges, potential stakeholder bias and debates; four types of leadership meta-decisions that guide decision processes, and aligned organizational culture. Both supporting and constraining organizational influences were observed as leaders managed major risks, requiring active leadership on the most difficult decisions. Although the company's engineering culture emphasized the importance of data-based decisions, the uncertainties intrinsic to satellite risks required expert engineering judgment to be exercised throughout. An investigation into the co-variation of decision methods with uncertainty suggests that perceived risk severity may serve as a robust indicator for choices about decision practices. The Deliberative Decision processes incorporate multiple organizational and cultural controls as cross-checks to mitigate potential parochial bias of individuals, stakeholder groups, or leaders. Overall the Deliberative Decision framework describes how expert leadership practices, supportive organizational systems along with aligned cultural values and behavioral norms help leaders drive high stakes risk decisions to closure in this complex, advanced-technology setting.

Assessing habitat risk from human activities to inform coastal and marine spatial planning: a demonstration in Belize

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arkema, Katie K.; Verutes, Gregory; Bernhardt, Joanna R.; Clarke, Chantalle; Rosado, Samir; Canto, Maritza; Wood, Spencer A.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Rosenthal, Amy; McField, Melanie; de Zegher, Joann

2014-11-01

Integrated coastal and ocean management requires transparent and accessible approaches for understanding the influence of human activities on marine environments. Here we introduce a model for assessing the combined risk to habitats from multiple ocean uses. We apply the model to coral reefs, mangrove forests and seagrass beds in Belize to inform the design of the country’s first Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan. Based on extensive stakeholder engagement, review of existing legislation and data collected from diverse sources, we map the current distribution of coastal and ocean activities and develop three scenarios for zoning these activities in the future. We then estimate ecosystem risk under the current and three future scenarios. Current levels of risk vary spatially among the nine coastal planning regions in Belize. Empirical tests of the model are strong—three-quarters of the measured data for coral reef health lie within the 95% confidence interval of interpolated model data and 79% of the predicted mangrove occurrences are associated with observed responses. The future scenario that harmonizes conservation and development goals results in a 20% reduction in the area of high-risk habitat compared to the current scenario, while increasing the extent of several ocean uses. Our results are a component of the ICZM Plan for Belize that will undergo review by the national legislature in 2015. This application of our model to marine spatial planning in Belize illustrates an approach that can be used broadly by coastal and ocean planners to assess risk to habitats under current and future management scenarios.

Management of disease-modifying treatments in neurological autoimmune diseases of the central nervous system.

PubMed

Salmen, A; Gold, R; Chan, A

2014-05-01

The therapeutic armamentarium for autoimmune diseases of the central nervous system, specifically multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica, is steadily increasing, with a large spectrum of immunomodulatory and immunosuppressive agents targeting different mechanisms of the immune system. However, increasingly efficacious treatment options also entail higher potential for severe adverse drug reactions. Especially in cases failing first-line treatment, thorough evaluation of the risk-benefit profile of treatment alternatives is necessary. This argues for the need of algorithms to identify patients more likely to benefit from a specific treatment. Moreover, paradigms to stratify the risk for severe adverse drug reactions need to be established. In addition to clinical/paraclinical measures, biomarkers may aid in individualized risk-benefit assessment. A recent example is the routine testing for anti-John Cunningham virus antibodies in natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis patients to assess the risk for the development of progressive multi-focal leucoencephalopathy. Refined algorithms for individualized risk assessment may also facilitate early initiation of induction treatment schemes in patient groups with high disease activity rather than classical escalation concepts. In this review, we will discuss approaches for individiualized risk-benefit assessment both for newly introduced agents as well as medications with established side-effect profiles. In addition to clinical parameters, we will also focus on biomarkers that may assist in patient selection. © 2013 British Society for Immunology.

Extramedullary plasmacytomas in the context of multiple myeloma.

PubMed

Aguado, Beatriz; Iñigo, Belen; Sastre, Jose L; Oriol, Albert

2011-11-01

Plasmacytoma is a frequent complication of multiple myeloma, either at diagnosis or within disease progression. The extramedullary disease confers a poorer prognosis and is biologically distinct with high-risk molecular and histological features, being resistant to conventional treatments. Radiation therapy remains the most effective treatment for extramedullary lesions to achieve local control. There are very limited data from randomized trials regarding the most appropriate systemic treatment. Case reports such as those presented here, as well as retrospective analysis of series, suggest that lenalidomide is an effective agent, in combination with dexamethasone, in this setting. Additional studies are needed to define the proper management of this condition.

Identity management strategies among HIV-positive Colombian gay men in London.

PubMed

Jaspal, Rusi; Williamson, Iain

2017-12-01

This study set out to explore the social-psychological aspects of living with HIV among a group of HIV-positive Colombian gay men in London, and the strategies that they deployed to manage ensuing threats to their identities. Focus group and individual interview data were collected from 14 Colombian gay men living with HIV, and were analysed using qualitative thematic analysis and identity process theory. The following themes are discussed: (1) identity struggles and conflicts in Colombia, (2), managing multiple layers of social stigma in England, and (3) changing interpersonal and intergroup dynamics, which highlight the inter-connections between sexual prejudice, sexual risk-taking and HIV stigma. Identity may be chronically threatened due to the multiple layers of stigma, which can limit the coping strategies available to individuals. Findings strongly support the need for action and programmes to highlight and tackle both racism and HIV stigma on the gay scene and to fund more specific resources for sub-communities of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men, which employ appropriately trained and culturally competent staff.

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

PubMed

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would be useful to develop case studies and/or standards of practice for interpreting lines of evidence. In addition, tools for cumulative risk assessment should be developed because contaminants are often released into stressed environments.

Relationship between Risk Factor Control and Compliance with a Lifestyle Modification Program in the Stenting Aggressive Medical Management for Prevention of Recurrent Stroke in Intracranial Stenosis Trial.

PubMed

Turan, Tanya N; Al Kasab, Sami; Nizam, Azhar; Lynn, Michael J; Harrell, Jamie; Derdeyn, Colin P; Fiorella, David; Janis, L Scott; Lane, Bethany F; Montgomery, Jean; Chimowitz, Marc I

2018-03-01

Lifestyle modification programs have improved the achievement of risk factor targets in a variety of clinical settings, including patients who have previously suffered a stroke or transient ischemic attack and those with multiple risk factors. Stenting Aggressive Medical Management for Prevention of Recurrent Stroke in Intracranial Stenosis (SAMMPRIS) was the first vascular disease prevention trial to provide a commercially available lifestyle modification program to enhance risk factor control. We sought to determine the relationship between compliance with this program and risk factor control in SAMMPRIS. SAMMPRIS aggressive medical management included a telephonic lifestyle modification program provided free of charge to all subjects (n = 451) during their participation in the study. Subjects with fewer than 3 expected lifestyle-coaching calls were excluded from these analyses. Compliant subjects (n = 201) had  greater than or equal to 78.5% of calls (median % of completed/expected calls). Noncompliant subjects (n = 200) had less than 78.5% of calls or refused to participate. Mean risk factor values or % in-target for each risk factor was compared between compliant versus noncompliant subjects, using t tests and chi-square tests. Risk factor changes from baseline to follow-up were compared between the groups to account for baseline differences. Compliant subjects had better risk factor control throughout follow-up for low-density lipoprotein, systolic blood pressure (SBP), hemoglobin A1c (HgA1c), non-high-density lipoprotein, nonsmoking, and exercise than noncompliant subjects, but there was no difference for body mass index. After adjusting for baseline differences between the groups, compliant subjects had a greater change from baseline than noncompliant subjects for SBP did at 24 months and HgA1c at 6 months. SAMMPRIS subjects who were compliant with the lifestyle modification program had better risk factor control during the study for almost all risk factors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Toward a conceptual approach for assessing risks from chemical mixtures and other stressors to coastal ecosystem services.

PubMed

Syberg, Kristian; Backhaus, Thomas; Banta, Gary; Bruce, Peter; Gustavsson, Mikael; Munns, Wayne R; Rämö, Robert; Selck, Henriette; Gunnarsson, Jonas S

2017-03-01

Growth of human populations and increased human activity, particularly in coastal areas, increase pressure on coastal ecosystems and the ecosystem services (ES) they provide. As a means toward being able to assess the impact of multiple stressors on ES, in the present study we propose an 8-step conceptual approach for assessing effects of chemical mixtures and other stressors on ES in coastal areas: step A, identify the relevant problems and policy aims; step B, identify temporal and spatial boundaries; step C, identify relevant ES; step D, identify relevant stressors (e.g., chemicals); step E, translate impacts into ES units; step F, assess cumulative risk in ES units; step G, rank stressors based on their contribution to adverse effects on ES; and step H, implement regulation and management as appropriate and necessary. Two illustrative case studies (Swedish coastal waters and a coastal lagoon in Costa Rica) are provided; one focuses on chemicals that affect human food supply and the other addresses pesticide runoff and trade-offs among ES. The 2 cases are used to highlight challenges of such risk assessments, including use of standardized versus ES-relevant test species, data completeness, and trade-offs among ES. Lessons learned from the 2 case studies are discussed in relation to environmental risk assessment and management of chemical mixtures. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:376-386. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Using interviews and focus groups with resource managers to explore risk perceptions and responses to climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifford, K. R.; Travis, W.; Rangwala, I.; Rondeau, R.; Young, L.

2016-12-01

Resource managers in the western U.S. are increasingly tasked to incorporate climate change into management decisions and long-term planning, but this task is complicated by multiple challenges, among them the need to bridge between the differing perspectives and prerogatives of scientists and resource managers. As part of a larger, iterative, interdisciplinary, multi-landscape research project that built on a prior climate vulnerability research, we conducted more than 50 semi-structured interviews and four focus groups with resource managers in the Gunnison Basin in western Colorado. The interviews addressed the managers' risk perceptions and knowledge about the resources and landscapes, while the focus groups asked resource managers to reflect on their own resource decision-making in light of three narrative future climate scenarios created by scientists on the research team. While time-intensive, the interviews and focus groups produced important insights into the managers' understanding of both the resources in question and the future climate scenarios. We found that the managers' mental models of their systems, and their conceptions of landscape changes and future threats, were diverse and sometimes in conflict with those held by the research team. The managers' responses to the climate scenarios reflected divergent and nuanced perceptions of risk, adaptation and uncertainty, heavily shaped by personal experience—which could be a constraint under rapidly changing future conditions. Our deployment of social science methodologies facilitated the co-production of climate adaptation strategies and a bridge between and among scientists and managers. The participants found the focus groups helpful since they (1) provided space to focus on decision-making under climate change, rather than fixate on details of the science, and (2) facilitated interaction with colleagues from other agencies. Climate scientists used participant feedback to inform future scenario development. The use of small focus groups to engage with climate scenarios could add value to other ongoing efforts to promote landscape-scale adaptation.

Assessing the effectiveness of sustainable land management policies for combating desertification: A data mining approach.

PubMed

Salvati, L; Kosmas, C; Kairis, O; Karavitis, C; Acikalin, S; Belgacem, A; Solé-Benet, A; Chaker, M; Fassouli, V; Gokceoglu, C; Gungor, H; Hessel, R; Khatteli, H; Kounalaki, A; Laouina, A; Ocakoglu, F; Ouessar, M; Ritsema, C; Sghaier, M; Sonmez, H; Taamallah, H; Tezcan, L; de Vente, J; Kelly, C; Colantoni, A; Carlucci, M

2016-12-01

This study investigates the relationship between fine resolution, local-scale biophysical and socioeconomic contexts within which land degradation occurs, and the human responses to it. The research draws on experimental data collected under different territorial and socioeconomic conditions at 586 field sites in five Mediterranean countries (Spain, Greece, Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco). We assess the level of desertification risk under various land management practices (terracing, grazing control, prevention of wildland fires, soil erosion control measures, soil water conservation measures, sustainable farming practices, land protection measures and financial subsidies) taken as possible responses to land degradation. A data mining approach, incorporating principal component analysis, non-parametric correlations, multiple regression and canonical analysis, was developed to identify the spatial relationship between land management conditions, the socioeconomic and environmental context (described using 40 biophysical and socioeconomic indicators) and desertification risk. Our analysis identified a number of distinct relationships between the level of desertification experienced and the underlying socioeconomic context, suggesting that the effectiveness of responses to land degradation is strictly dependent on the local biophysical and socioeconomic context. Assessing the latent relationship between land management practices and the biophysical/socioeconomic attributes characterizing areas exposed to different levels of desertification risk proved to be an indirect measure of the effectiveness of field actions contrasting land degradation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Situating Hazard Vulnerability: People's Negotiations with Wildfire Environments in the U.S. Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collins, Timothy W.; Bolin, Bob

2009-09-01

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona’s White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people’s social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

Situating hazard vulnerability: people's negotiations with wildfire environments in the U.S. southwest.

PubMed

Collins, Timothy W; Bolin, Bob

2009-09-01

This article is based on a multimethod study designed to clarify influences on wildfire hazard vulnerability in Arizona's White Mountains, USA. Findings reveal that multiple factors operating across scales generate socially unequal wildfire risks. At the household scale, conflicting environmental values, reliance on fire insurance and firefighting institutions, a lack of place dependency, and social vulnerability (e.g., a lack of financial, physical, and/or legal capacity to reduce risks) were found to be important influences on wildfire risk. At the regional-scale, the shift from a resource extraction to environmental amenity-based economy has transformed ecological communities, produced unequal social distributions of risks and resources, and shaped people's social and environmental interactions in everyday life. While working-class locals are more socially vulnerable than amenity migrants to wildfire hazards, they have also been more active in attempting to reduce risks in the aftermath of the disastrous 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire. Social tensions between locals and amenity migrants temporarily dissolved immediately following the disaster, only to be exacerbated by the heightened perception of risk and the differential commitment to hazard mitigation displayed by these groups over a 2-year study period. Findings suggest that to enhance wildfire safety, environmental managers should acknowledge the environmental benefits associated with hazardous landscapes, the incentives created by risk management programs, and the specific constraints to action for relevant social groups in changing human-environmental context.

A decade of marketing approval of gene and cell-based therapies in the United States, European Union and Japan: An evaluation of regulatory decision-making.

PubMed

Coppens, D G M; de Wilde, S; Guchelaar, H J; De Bruin, M L; Leufkens, H G M; Meij, P; Hoekman, J

2018-05-02

There is a widely held expectation of clinical advance with the development of gene and cell-based therapies (GCTs). Yet, establishing benefits and risks is highly uncertain. We examine differences in decision-making for GCT approval between jurisdictions by comparing regulatory assessment procedures in the United States (US), European Union (EU) and Japan. A cohort of 18 assessment procedures was analyzed by comparing product characteristics, evidentiary and non-evidentiary factors considered for approval and post-marketing risk management. Product characteristics are very heterogeneous and only three products are marketed in multiple jurisdictions. Almost half of all approved GCTs received an orphan designation. Overall, confirmatory evidence or indications of clinical benefit were evident in US and EU applications, whereas in Japan approval was solely granted based on non-confirmatory evidence. Due to scientific uncertainties and safety risks, substantial post-marketing risk management activities were requested in the EU and Japan. EU and Japanese authorities often took unmet medical needs into consideration in decision-making for approval. These observations underline the effects of implemented legislation in these two jurisdictions that facilitate an adaptive approach to licensing. In the US, the recent assessments of two chimeric antigen receptor-T cell (CAR-T) products are suggestive of a trend toward a more permissive approach for GCT approval under recent reforms, in contrast to a more binary decision-making approach for previous approvals. It indicates that all three regulatory agencies are currently willing to take risks by approving GCTs with scientific uncertainties and safety risks, urging them to pay accurate attention to post-marketing risk management. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

National lipid association recommendations for patient-centered management of dyslipidemia: part 1--full report.

PubMed

Jacobson, Terry A; Ito, Matthew K; Maki, Kevin C; Orringer, Carl E; Bays, Harold E; Jones, Peter H; McKenney, James M; Grundy, Scott M; Gill, Edward A; Wild, Robert A; Wilson, Don P; Brown, W Virgil

2015-01-01

The leadership of the National Lipid Association convened an Expert Panel to develop a consensus set of recommendations for patient-centered management of dyslipidemia in clinical medicine. An Executive Summary of those recommendations was previously published. This document provides support for the recommendations outlined in the Executive Summary. The major conclusions include (1) an elevated level of cholesterol carried by circulating apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins (non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], termed atherogenic cholesterol) is a root cause of atherosclerosis, the key underlying process contributing to most clinical atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events; (2) reducing elevated levels of atherogenic cholesterol will lower ASCVD risk in proportion to the extent that atherogenic cholesterol is reduced. This benefit is presumed to result from atherogenic cholesterol lowering through multiple modalities, including lifestyle and drug therapies; (3) the intensity of risk-reduction therapy should generally be adjusted to the patient's absolute risk for an ASCVD event; (4) atherosclerosis is a process that often begins early in life and progresses for decades before resulting a clinical ASCVD event. Therefore, both intermediate-term and long-term or lifetime risk should be considered when assessing the potential benefits and hazards of risk-reduction therapies; (5) for patients in whom lipid-lowering drug therapy is indicated, statin treatment is the primary modality for reducing ASCVD risk; (6) nonlipid ASCVD risk factors should also be managed appropriately, particularly high blood pressure, cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus; and (7) the measurement and monitoring of atherogenic cholesterol levels remain an important part of a comprehensive ASCVD prevention strategy. Copyright © 2015 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exposure of free-flying birds to anticholinesterase insecticides in two conventionally managed fruit orchards

USGS Publications Warehouse

Borges, S.L.

2002-01-01

Conventionally managed orchards receive extensive applications of anticholinesterase (anti-ChE) insecticides throughout the growing season. Because many avian species make use of these environments for nesting and foraging, they may receive substantial exposure to anti-ChEs. The model used to assess avian risk in these environments is highly simplified, and indicator species used in risk studies may misrepresent the risk of the species in the field. A better understanding of avian risk is needed, and should begin with a closer examination o# their exposure in these environments. Exposure of free-flying birds was examined in two conventional orchards during the nesting seasons of 1999 and 2000. Our goal was to demonstrate the influences of species and chemical differences on the exposure we observed. Plasma ChE activity and ChE reactivation were used to identify exposure in multiple species following anti-ChE applications (applied singly and in mixtures). Chipping sparrows (Spizella passerina), American goldfinches (Carduelis tristis), and American robins (Turdus migratorius) demonstrated significant ChE activity depression in 1999 (p 0.005), and only chipping sparrows demonstrated significant depression in 2000 (p = 0.0002). These three species demonstrated the highest proportion of exposed individuals among all species examined in both years. Because many chemicals were simultaneously present in each orchard, chemical influences on the exposure we observed could not be discerned. This work does demonstrate, however, that avian species differ significantly in their exposure, and that chipping sparrows demonstrated the greatest exposure among the species analyzed. These results underscore the need for multiple species studies and for choosing indicator species on a biologically relevant basis.

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment—Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Lentz, T. J.; Dotson, G. S.; Williams, P. R.D.; Maier, A.; Gadagbui, B.; Pandalai, S. P.; Lamba, A.; Hearl, F.; Mumtaz, M.

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational. PMID:26583907

Aggregate Exposure and Cumulative Risk Assessment--Integrating Occupational and Non-occupational Risk Factors.

PubMed

Lentz, T J; Dotson, G S; Williams, P R D; Maier, A; Gadagbui, B; Pandalai, S P; Lamba, A; Hearl, F; Mumtaz, M

2015-01-01

Occupational exposure limits have traditionally focused on preventing morbidity and mortality arising from inhalation exposures to individual chemical stressors in the workplace. While central to occupational risk assessment, occupational exposure limits have limited application as a refined disease prevention tool because they do not account for all of the complexities of the work and non-occupational environments and are based on varying health endpoints. To be of greater utility, occupational exposure limits and other risk management tools could integrate broader consideration of risks from multiple exposure pathways and routes (aggregate risk) as well as the combined risk from exposure to both chemical and non-chemical stressors, within and beyond the workplace, including the possibility that such exposures may cause interactions or modify the toxic effects observed (cumulative risk). Although still at a rudimentary stage in many cases, a variety of methods and tools have been developed or are being used in allied risk assessment fields to incorporate such considerations in the risk assessment process. These approaches, which are collectively referred to as cumulative risk assessment, have potential to be adapted or modified for occupational scenarios and provide a tangible path forward for occupational risk assessment. Accounting for complex exposures in the workplace and the broader risks faced by the individual also requires a more complete consideration of the composite effects of occupational and non-occupational risk factors to fully assess and manage worker health problems. Barriers to integrating these different factors remain, but new and ongoing community-based and worker health-related initiatives may provide mechanisms for identifying and integrating risk from aggregate exposures and cumulative risks from all relevant sources, be they occupational or non-occupational.

The clinical content of preconception care: reproductive history.

PubMed

Stubblefield, Phillip G; Coonrod, Dean V; Reddy, Uma M; Sayegh, Raja; Nicholson, Wanda; Rychlik, Daniel F; Jack, Brian W

2008-12-01

A history of previous birth of a low birthweight infant, previous cesarean sections, multiple previous spontaneous abortions, prior stillbirth, or uterine anomaly identifies women at increased risk for recurrent abortion, preterm birth, or stillbirth. We review the evidence for the potential benefit of reproductive history in identifying strategies for evaluation and treatment to prevent recurrent adverse pregnancy outcome. We offer evidence-based recommendations for management of women with these histories.

Environmental Management Approach to Improve College Student and Community Relations to Reduce Binge and High-Risk Alcohol Use and Other Drug Problems. Prevention Update

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higher Education Center for Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Violence Prevention, 2011

2011-01-01

A central feature of the U.S. Department of Education's Higher Education Center for Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Violence Prevention is the promotion of multiple prevention strategies that affect campus and surrounding community environments as a whole and can, thereby, have a large-scale effect on the entire campus community. In outlining the…

How we manage autologous stem cell transplantation for patients with multiple myeloma

PubMed Central

Dingli, David

2014-01-01

An estimated 22 350 patients had multiple myeloma diagnosed in 2013, representing 1.3% of all new cancers; 10 710 deaths are projected, representing 1.8% of cancer deaths. Approximately 0.7% of US men and women will have a myeloma diagnosis in their lifetime, and with advances in therapy, 77 600 US patients are living with myeloma. The 5-year survival rate was 25.6% in 1989 and was 44.9% in 2005. The median age at diagnosis is 69 years, with 62.4% of patients aged 65 or older at diagnosis. Median age at death is 75 years. The rate of new myeloma cases has been rising 0.7% per year during the past decade. The most common indication for autologous stem cell transplantation in the United States is multiple myeloma, and this article is designed to provide the specifics of organizing a transplant program for multiple myeloma. We review the data justifying use of stem cell transplantation as initial management in myeloma patients. We provide selection criteria that minimize the risks of transplantation. Specific guidelines on mobilization and supportive care through the transplant course, as done at Mayo Clinic, are given. A review of the data on tandem vs sequential autologous transplants is provided. PMID:24973360

Future clinical challenges in multiple sclerosis: Relevance to sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulator therapy.

PubMed

Hohlfeld, Reinhard; Barkhof, Frederik; Polman, Chris

2011-02-22

The limitations of established therapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are well-known and include the need for injections, treatment adherence and convenience issues, partial efficacy, and, in some cases, a risk of potentially life-threatening adverse events, such as progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy. Recently, attention has focused on developing more effective therapies that are administered orally and target neurodegeneration as well as inflammation. In this review, we provide an outlook on the future clinical challenges for MS treatment and management, and focus specifically on the emerging sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor (S1PR) modulators. We highlight the importance of improving our understanding of the neurobiological basis of MS to develop well-tolerated targeted therapies and the need to include advanced MRI assessments that quantify neurodegeneration in interventional studies in MS. As more treatments become available, often with complex pharmacodynamic actions, objective assessment of benefit-to-risk profiles becomes increasingly important to ensure that patients receive appropriate care. Pharmacovigilance and immune monitoring will become important aspects of patient treatment and management in the future. With respect to S1PR modulation, we review the experimental agents that are in clinical development for MS and summarize the steps taken in postmarketing surveillance to ensure that fingolimod (FTY720) has a well-characterized safety profile.

Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater.

PubMed

Ma, Yukun; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Liu, An; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

2016-07-01

Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150μm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Party drugs - use and harm reduction.

PubMed

Frei, Matthew

2010-08-01

Party drug use, the intermittent use of stimulants, ecstasy and so-called 'designer drugs' at dance parties or 'raves', is now part of the culture of many young Australians. This article discusses the risks associated with the use of 'party drugs' and describes an useful approach to general practitioner assessment and management of patients who may be using party drugs. Party drug use is associated with a range of harms, including risks associated with behaviour while drug affected, toxicity and overdose, mental health complications and physical morbidity. Multiple substance use, particularly combining sedatives, further amplifies risk. If GPs have some understanding of these drugs and their effects, they are well placed to provide an effective intervention in party drug users by supporting the reduction of harm.

Exogenous and endogenous hormones and breast cancer

PubMed Central

ChenMD, Wendy Y.

2008-01-01

Exposure to higher levels of both exogenous and endogenous hormone is associated with breast cancer risk. Because of the association between breast cancer and HRT, only the minimal duration of HRT use is recommended for symptom control, and it is not recommended for chronic disease management. Current research issues include the role of progestins, other types of HRT, duration of unopposed estrogen use, and characteristics of cancers that develop on HRT. Circulating sex steroid levels are associated with breast cancer risk, but multiple issues need to be addressed before they are used routinely in clinical practice. Current research issues include measurement of levels for routine clinical practice, integration with standard breast cancer risk models and genetic polymorphism data, and applicability to estrogen-receptor-negative cancers. PMID:18971119

CHD associated with syndromic diagnoses: peri-operative risk factors and early outcomes

PubMed Central

Landis, Benjamin J.; Cooper, David S.; Hinton, Robert B.

2016-01-01

CHD is frequently associated with a genetic syndrome. These syndromes often present specific cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular co-morbidities that confer significant peri-operative risks affecting multiple organ systems. Although surgical outcomes have improved over time, these co-morbidities continue to contribute substantially to poor peri-operative mortality and morbidity outcomes. Peri-operative morbidity may have long-standing ramifications on neurodevelopment and overall health. Recognising the cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular risks associated with specific syndromic diagnoses will facilitate expectant management, early detection of clinical problems, and improved outcomes – for example, the development of syndrome-based protocols for peri-operative evaluation and prophylactic actions may improve outcomes for the more frequently encountered syndromes such as 22q11 deletion syndrome. PMID:26345374

Extreme risk assessment based on normalized historic loss data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichner, Jan

2017-04-01

Natural hazard risk assessment and risk management focuses on the expected loss magnitudes of rare and extreme events. Such large-scale loss events typically comprise all aspects of compound events and accumulate losses from multiple sectors (including knock-on effects). Utilizing Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE direct economic loss data, we beriefly recap a novel methodology of peril-specific loss data normalization which improves the stationarity properties of highly non-stationary historic loss data (due to socio-economic growth of assets prone to destructive forces), and perform extreme value analysis (peaks-over-threshold method) to come up with return level estimates of e.g. 100-yr loss event scenarios for various types of perils, globally or per continent, and discuss uncertainty in the results.

Percutaneous pigtail catheter in the treatment of pneumothorax in major burns: the best alternative? Case report and review of literature.

PubMed

Sebastian, Raul; Ghanem, Omar; Diroma, Frank; Milner, Stephen M; Gerold, Kevin B; Price, Leigh A

2015-05-01

Multiple factors place burn patients at a high risk of pneumothorax development. Currently, no specific recommendations for the management of pneumothorax in large total body surface area (TBSA) burn patients exist. We present a case of a major burn patient who developed pneumothorax after central line insertion. After the traditional large bore (24 Fr) chest tube failed to resolve the pneumothorax, the pneumothorax was ultimately managed by a percutaneous placed pigtail catheter thoracostomy placement and resulted in its complete resolution. We will review the current recommendations of pneumothorax treatment and will highlight on the use of pigtail catheters in pneumothorax management in burn patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Rapid Spacecraft Development: Results and Lessons Learned

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watson, William A.

2002-01-01

The Rapid Spacecraft Development Office (RSDO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is responsible for the management and direction of a dynamic and versatile program for the definition, competition, and acquisition of multiple indefinite delivery and indefinite quantity contracts - resulting in a catalog of spacecraft buses. Five spacecraft delivery orders have been placed by the RSDO and one spacecraft has been launched. Numerous concept and design studies have been performed, most with the intent of leading to a future spacecraft acquisition. A collection of results and lessons learned is recorded to highlight management techniques, methods and processes employed in the conduct of spacecraft acquisition. Topics include working relationships under fixed price delivery orders, price and value, risk management, contingency reserves, and information restrictions.

When snakes bite: the management of North American Crotalinae snake envenomation.

PubMed

Ashton, Jenny; Baker, Stephanie N; Weant, Kyle A

2011-01-01

There are more than 120 species of snakes indigenous to the United States, 25 of which are venomous. Although snake envenomation carries a relatively low risk of mortality in the United States, it can result in significant morbidity if left untreated. The venom of Crotalinae snakes contains a complex mixture of enzymatic proteins with various clinical implications. Of these complications, the most significant are consumptive coagulopathy, compartment syndrome, and hypovolemic shock. The development of ovine Crotalidae polyvalent immune Fab antivenin (CroFab) has greatly changed the approach to snake envenomation. Nevertheless, multiple factors complicate its use and the overall management of this clinical presentation. The intent of this review is to discuss relevant management issues associated with Crotalinae envenomation in the emergency department.

Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fischer, A. Paige; Spies, Thomas A; Steelman, Toddi A; Moseley, Cassandra; Johnson, Bart R.; Bailey, John D.; Ager, Alan A; Bourgeron, Patrick S.; Charnley, Susan; Collins, Brandon M.; Kline, Jeffrey D; Leahy, Jessica E; Littell, Jeremy; Millington, James D. A.; Nielsen-Pincus, Max; Olsen, Christine S; Paveglio, Travis B; Roos, Christopher I.; Steen-Adams, Michelle M; Stevens, Forrest R; Vukomanovic, Jelena; White, Eric M; Bowman, David M J S

2016-01-01

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

Disaster Risk Reduction in Myanmar: A Need for Focus on Community Preparedness and Improved Evaluation of Initiatives.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew D; Chan, Emily Y Y

2017-11-20

Myanmar is a country in political and economic transition. Facing a wide-variety of natural hazards and ongoing conflict, the country's under-developed infrastructure has resulted in high disaster risk. Following the devastation of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and increased global focus on disaster management and risk reduction, Myanmar has begun development of national disaster policies. Myanmar's Action Plan for Disaster Risk Reduction addressed multiple stages of disaster development and has made progress towards national projects, however, has struggled to implement community-based preparedness and response initiatives. This article analyses Myanmar's disaster strategy, though the use of a disaster development framework and suggests areas for possible improvement. In particular, the article aims to generate discussion regarding methods of supporting objective evaluation of risk reduction initiatives in developing countries. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 5).

Caring for children with special healthcare needs in the managed care environment.

PubMed

Hawkins, Michelle R; Diehl-Svrjcek, Beth; Dunbar, Linda J

2006-01-01

Dramatic medical and technological advances over the past 15 years have resulted in the survival into adulthood of children with chronic health conditions. As this population subset has increased, the demand of caring for these children in the managed care arena has become challenging from a clinical, fiscal, and member satisfaction perspective. A disease management program was designed for children, ages birth through age 18, identified as having special needs at the time of birth or at any point throughout childhood related to disease processes such as diabetes, sickle cell disease, genetic aberrations, or the multiple complications of extreme prematurity. Components of the program included identification of the population, coordinated risk assessment, and ongoing case management interventions. Most important, outcome indicators were tracked to demonstrate program effectiveness. The formulation and function of a dedicated disease management database is also discussed.

Management of pseudophakic cystoid macular edema.

PubMed

Guo, Suqin; Patel, Shriji; Baumrind, Ben; Johnson, Keegan; Levinsohn, Daniel; Marcus, Edward; Tannen, Brad; Roy, Monique; Bhagat, Neelakshi; Zarbin, Marco

2015-01-01

Pseudophakic cystoid macular edema (PCME) is a common complication following cataract surgery. Acute PCME may resolve spontaneously, but some patients will develop chronic macular edema that affects vision and is difficult to treat. This disease was described more than 50 years ago, and there are multiple options for clinical management. We discuss mechanisms, clinical efficacy, and adverse effects of these treatment modalities. Topical non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents and corticosteroids are widely used and, when combined, may have a synergistic effect. Intravitreal corticosteroids and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) agents have shown promise when topical medications either fail or have had limited effects. Randomized clinical studies evaluating anti-VEGF agents are needed to fully evaluate benefits and risks. When PCME is either refractory to medical therapy or is associated with significant vitreous involvement, pars plana vitrectomy has been shown to improve outcomes, though it is associated with additional risks. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radiotherapy-induced hypopituitarism: a review.

PubMed

Sathyapalan, Thozhukat; Dixit, Sanjay

2012-05-01

Hypopituitarism is a disorder caused by impaired hormonal secretions from the hypothalamic-pituitary axis. Radiotherapy is the most common cause of iatrogenic hypopituitarism. The hypothalamic-pituitary axis inadvertently gets irradiated in patients receiving prophylactic cranial radiotherapy for leukemia, total body irradiation and radiotherapy for intracranial, base skull, sinonasal and nasopharyngeal tumors. Radiation-induced hypopituitarism (RIH) is insidious, progressive and largely nonreversible. Mostly, RIH involves one hypothalamic-pituitary axis; however, multiple hormonal axes deficiency starts developing at higher doses. Although the clinical effects of the hypopituitarism are more profound in children and young adults, its implications in older adults are being increasingly recognized. The risk continues to persist or increase up to 10 years following radiation exposure. The clinical management of hypopituitarism is challenging both for the patients and healthcare providers. Here we have reviewed the scale of the problem, the risk factors and the management of RIH.

Osteoporosis and Periodontitis.

PubMed

Wang, Chin-Wei Jeff; McCauley, Laurie K

2016-12-01

Osteoporosis and periodontitis are both diseases characterized by bone resorption. Osteoporosis features systemic degenerative bone loss that leads to loss of skeletal cancellous microstructure and subsequent fracture, whereas periodontitis involves local inflammatory bone loss, following an infectious breach of the alveolar cortical bone, and it may result in tooth loss. Most cross-sectional studies have confirmed the association of osteoporosis and periodontitis primarily on radiographic measurements and to a lesser degree on clinical parameters. Multiple shared risk factors include age, genetics, hormonal change, smoking, as well as calcium and vitamin D deficiency. Both diseases could also be risk factors for each other and have a mutual impact that requires concomitant management. Suggested mechanisms underlying the linkage are disruption of the homeostasis concerning bone remodeling, hormonal balance, and inflammation resolution. A mutual interventional approach is emerging with complex treatment interactions. Prevention and management of both diseases require interdisciplinary approaches and warrants future well-controlled longitudinal and interventional studies for evidence-based clinical guidelines.

An Overview of Seafood Supply, Food Safety and Regulation in New South Wales, Australia.

PubMed

Hussain, Malik A; Saputra, Themy; Szabo, Elizabeth A; Nelan, Bruce

2017-07-19

Seafood consumption is increasing in Australia, especially in New South Wales (NSW). Average per capita seafood consumption in NSW is higher than the national average. Seafood supply in NSW comes from domestic (wild catch and aquaculture) and overseas (seafood imports) sources. The contribution of wild catch and aquaculture in domestic seafood production (2012-2013) was 73.42% and 26.52%, respectively. Seafood-associated foodborne illness outbreaks are not common and on an average four outbreaks occur each year in NSW. Most of the outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 were related to ciguatera poisoning. The regulation of the seafood industry and the management of food safety is an example of the coordinated work of multiple government agencies and organizations in which NSW Food Authority is responsible for managing the overall risks through the Seafood Safety Scheme. Overall, seafood supply in NSW is of high quality and poses low food safety risk to consumers.

A Decision Model for Supporting Task Allocation Processes in Global Software Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamersdorf, Ansgar; Münch, Jürgen; Rombach, Dieter

Today, software-intensive systems are increasingly being developed in a globally distributed way. However, besides its benefit, global development also bears a set of risks and problems. One critical factor for successful project management of distributed software development is the allocation of tasks to sites, as this is assumed to have a major influence on the benefits and risks. We introduce a model that aims at improving management processes in globally distributed projects by giving decision support for task allocation that systematically regards multiple criteria. The criteria and causal relationships were identified in a literature study and refined in a qualitative interview study. The model uses existing approaches from distributed systems and statistical modeling. The article gives an overview of the problem and related work, introduces the empirical and theoretical foundations of the model, and shows the use of the model in an example scenario.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

PubMed

Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-13

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-06-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

PubMed Central

Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

2018-01-01

Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

Management of Skin Cancer in the High-Risk Patient.

PubMed

Behan, James W; Sutton, Adam; Wysong, Ashley

2016-12-01

Skin cancer is the most common of human cancers and outnumbers all other types of cancer combined in the USA by over threefold. The majority of non-melanoma skin cancers are easily treated with surgery or locally destructive techniques performed under local anesthesia in the cost-effective outpatient setting. However, there is a subset of "high-risk" cases that prove challenging in terms of morbidity, mortality, adjuvant treatment required, as well as overall cost to the health care system. In our opinion, the term "high risk" when applied to skin cancer can mean one of three things: a high-risk tumor with aggressive histologic and/or clinical features with an elevated risk for local recurrence or regional/distant metastasis, a high-risk patient with the ongoing development of multiple skin cancers, and a high-risk patient based on immunosuppression. We have recently proposed classifying NMSC as a chronic disease in a certain subset of patients. Although no consensus definition exists for a chronic disease in medicine, there are three components that are present in most definitions: duration of at least 1 year, need for ongoing medical care, and functional impairment and/or alteration of activities of daily living (ADLs) and quality of life (QOL). Immunosuppression can refer to exogenous (organ or stem cell transplant patients,) or endogenous (HIV, leukemia, lymphoma, genodermatoses with DNA mismatch repair problems or other immunosuppression) causes. These patients are at risk for high-risk tumors and/or the development of multiple tumors.

A 3S Risk ?3SR? Assessment Approach for Nuclear Power: Safety Security and Safeguards.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Forrest, Robert; Reinhardt, Jason Christian; Wheeler, Timothy A.

Safety-focused risk analysis and assessment approaches struggle to adequately include malicious, deliberate acts against the nuclear power industry's fissile and waste material, infrastructure, and facilities. Further, existing methods do not adequately address non- proliferation issues. Treating safety, security, and safeguards concerns independently is inefficient because, at best, it may not take explicit advantage of measures that provide benefits against multiple risk domains, and, at worst, it may lead to implementations that increase overall risk due to incompatibilities. What is needed is an integrated safety, security and safeguards risk (or "3SR") framework for describing and assessing nuclear power risks that canmore » enable direct trade-offs and interactions in order to inform risk management processes -- a potential paradigm shift in risk analysis and management. These proceedings of the Sandia ePRA Workshop (held August 22-23, 2017) are an attempt to begin the discussions and deliberations to extend and augment safety focused risk assessment approaches to include security concerns and begin moving towards a 3S Risk approach. Safeguards concerns were not included in this initial workshop and are left to future efforts. This workshop focused on four themes in order to begin building out a the safety and security portions of the 3S Risk toolkit: 1. Historical Approaches and Tools 2. Current Challenges 3. Modern Approaches 4. Paths Forward and Next Steps This report is organized along the four areas described above, and concludes with a summary of key points. 2 Contact: rforres@sandia.gov; +1 (925) 294-2728« less

Competing risks and the development of adaptive management plans for water resources: Field reconnaissance investigation of risks to fishes and other aquatic biota exposed to endocrine disrupting chemicals (edcs) in lake mead, Nevada USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Linder, G.; Little, E.E.

2009-01-01

The analysis and characterization of competing risks for water resources rely on a wide spectrum of tools to evaluate hazards and risks associated with their management. For example, waters of the lower Colorado River stored in reservoirs such as Lake Mead present a wide range of competing risks related to water quantity and water quality. These risks are often interdependent and complicated by competing uses of source waters for sustaining biological resources and for supporting a range of agricultural, municipal, recreational, and industrial uses. USGS is currently conducting a series of interdisciplinary case-studies on water quality of Lake Mead and its source waters. In this case-study we examine selected constituents potentially entering the Lake Mead system, particularly endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Worldwide, a number of environmental EDCs have been identified that affect reproduction, development, and adaptive behaviors in a wide range of organisms. Many EDCs are minimally affected by current treatment technologies and occur in treated sewage effluents. Several EDCs have been detected in Lake Mead, and several substances have been identified that are of concern because of potential impacts to the aquatic biota, including the sport fishery of Lake Mead and endangered razorback suckers (Xyrauchen texanus) that occur in the Colorado River system. For example, altered biomarkers relevant to reproduction and thyroid function in fishes have been observed and may be predictive of impaired metabolism and development. Few studies, however, have addressed whether such EDC-induced responses observed in the field have an ecologically significant effect on the reproductive success of fishes. To identify potential linkages between EDCs and species of management concern, the risk analysis and characterization in this reconnaissance study focused on effects (and attendant uncertainties) that might be expressed by exposed populations. In addition, risk reduction measures that may be of interest to resource managers are considered relative to emerging contaminants in treated effluents, interdependencies among biological resources at risk, and uses of reservoir waters derived from multiple inflows of widely varying qualities. ??2009 ASCE.

A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

PubMed Central

Arcangeli, Antonella; Prado Fonseca, Vinícius; Campana, Ilaria; Pierce, Graham J.; Rotta, Andrea; Bellido, Jose Maria

2017-01-01

Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP), which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus) in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA) for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species. PMID:28644882

Risk-based zoning for urbanizing floodplains.

PubMed

Porse, Erik

2014-01-01

Urban floodplain development brings economic benefits and enhanced flood risks. Rapidly growing cities must often balance the economic benefits and increased risks of floodplain settlement. Planning can provide multiple flood mitigation and environmental benefits by combining traditional structural measures such as levees, increasingly popular landscape and design features (green infrastructure), and non-structural measures such as zoning. Flexibility in both structural and non-structural options, including zoning procedures, can reduce flood risks. This paper presents a linear programming formulation to assess cost-effective urban floodplain development decisions that consider benefits and costs of development along with expected flood damages. It uses a probabilistic approach to identify combinations of land-use allocations (residential and commercial development, flood channels, distributed runoff management) and zoning regulations (development zones in channel) to maximize benefits. The model is applied to a floodplain planning analysis for an urbanizing region in the Baja Sur peninsula of Mexico. The analysis demonstrates how (1) economic benefits drive floodplain development, (2) flexible zoning can improve economic returns, and (3) cities can use landscapes, enhanced by technology and design, to manage floods. The framework can incorporate additional green infrastructure benefits, and bridges typical disciplinary gaps for planning and engineering.

A spatially explicit risk assessment approach: Cetaceans and marine traffic in the Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea).

PubMed

Pennino, Maria Grazia; Arcangeli, Antonella; Prado Fonseca, Vinícius; Campana, Ilaria; Pierce, Graham J; Rotta, Andrea; Bellido, Jose Maria

2017-01-01

Spatially explicit risk assessment is an essential component of Marine Spatial Planning (MSP), which provides a comprehensive framework for managing multiple uses of the marine environment, minimizing environmental impacts and conflicts among users. In this study, we assessed the risk of the exposure to high intensity vessel traffic areas for the three most abundant cetacean species (Stenella coeruleoalba, Tursiops truncatus and Balaenoptera physalus) in the southern area of the Pelagos Sanctuary, which is the only pelagic Marine Protected Area (MPA) for marine mammals in the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, we modeled the occurrence of the three cetacean species as a function of habitat variables in June by using hierarchical Bayesian spatial-temporal models. Similarly, we modelled the marine traffic intensity in order to find high risk areas and estimated the potential conflict due to the overlap with the cetacean home ranges. Results identified two main hot-spots of high intensity marine traffic in the area, which partially overlap with the area of presence of the studied species. Our findings emphasize the need for nationally relevant and transboundary planning and management measures for these marine species.

The Relationships between Human Fatigue and Public Health: A Brief Commentary on Selected Papers from the 9th International Conference on Managing Fatigue in Transportation, Resources and Health.

PubMed

Sargent, Charli; Roberts, Paul; Dawson, Drew; Ferguson, Sally; Meuleners, Lynn; Brook, Libby; Roach, Gregory D

2016-08-24

The 9th International Conference on Managing Fatigue in Transportation, Resources and Health was held in Fremantle, Western Australia in March 2015. The purpose of the conferences in this series is to provide a forum for industry representatives, regulators, and scientists to discuss recent advances in the field of fatigue research. We have produced a Special Issue of the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health based on papers from the conference that were focused on various aspects of public health. First, the Special Issue highlights the fact that working long shifts and/or night shifts can affect not only cognitive functioning, but also physical health. In particular, three papers examined the potential relationships between shiftwork and different aspects of health, including the cardiovascular system, sleep disordered breathing, and eating behaviour. Second, the Special Issue highlights the move away from controlling fatigue through prescriptive hours of service rules and toward the application of risk management principles. In particular, three papers indicated that best-practice fatigue risk management systems should contain multiple redundant layers of defense against fatigue-related errors and accidents.

Medication knowledge, certainty, and risk of errors in health care: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Medication errors are often involved in reported adverse events. Drug therapy, prescribed by physicians, is mostly carried out by nurses, who are expected to master all aspects of medication. Research has revealed the need for improved knowledge in drug dose calculation, and medication knowledge as a whole is poorly investigated. The purpose of this survey was to study registered nurses' medication knowledge, certainty and estimated risk of errors, and to explore factors associated with good results. Methods Nurses from hospitals and primary health care establishments were invited to carry out a multiple-choice test in pharmacology, drug management and drug dose calculations (score range 0-14). Self-estimated certainty in each answer was recorded, graded from 0 = very uncertain to 3 = very certain. Background characteristics and sense of coping were recorded. Risk of error was estimated by combining knowledge and certainty scores. The results are presented as mean (±SD). Results Two-hundred and three registered nurses participated (including 16 males), aged 42.0 (9.3) years with a working experience of 12.4 (9.2) years. Knowledge scores in pharmacology, drug management and drug dose calculations were 10.3 (1.6), 7.5 (1.6), and 11.2 (2.0), respectively, and certainty scores were 1.8 (0.4), 1.9 (0.5), and 2.0 (0.6), respectively. Fifteen percent of the total answers showed a high risk of error, with 25% in drug management. Independent factors associated with high medication knowledge were working in hospitals (p < 0.001), postgraduate specialization (p = 0.01) and completion of courses in drug management (p < 0.01). Conclusions Medication knowledge was found to be unsatisfactory among practicing nurses, with a significant risk for medication errors. The study revealed a need to improve the nurses' basic knowledge, especially when referring to drug management. PMID:21791106

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer predisposition: BRCA1/2, Lynch syndrome, and beyond

PubMed Central

Hall, MJ; Obeid, EI; Schwartz, SC; Mantia-Smaldone, G; Forman, AD; Daly, MB

2016-01-01

Obstetrician/gynecologists and gynecologic oncologists serve an integral role in the care of women at increased hereditary risk of cancer. Their contribution includes initial identification of high risk patients, screening procedures like bimanual exam, trans-vaginal ultrasound and endometrial biopsy, prophylaxis via TAH and/or BSO, and chemoprevention. Further, gynecologists also serve a central role in the management of the secondary repercussions of efforts to mitigate increased cancer risks, including vasomotor symptoms, sexual function, bone health, cardiovascular disease, and mental health. The past several years has seen multiple new high and moderate penetrance genes introduced into the clinical care of women at increased risk of gynecologic malignancy. Awareness of these new genes and the availability of new multigene panel tests is critical for providers on the front-line of women’s health. PMID:26812021

Rehabilitation and Flood Management Planning in a Steep, Boulder-Bedded Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, Brian S.; Downs, Peter W.

2007-08-01

This study demonstrates the integration of rehabilitation and flood management planning in a steep, boulder-bedded stream in a coastal urban catchment on the South Island of New Zealand. The Water of Leith, the primary stream flowing through the city of Dunedin, is used as a case study. The catchment is steep, with a short time of concentration and rapid hydrologic response, and the lower stream reaches are highly channelized with floodplain encroachment, a high potential for debris flows, significant flood risks, and severely degraded aquatic habitat. Because the objectives for rehabilitation and flood management in urban catchments are often conflicting, a number of types of analyses at both the catchment and the reach scales and careful planning with stakeholder consultation were needed for successful rehabilitation efforts. This included modeling and analysis of catchment hydrology, fluvial geomorphologic assessment, analysis of water quality and aquatic ecology, hydraulic modeling and flood risk evaluation, detailed feasibility studies, and preliminary design to optimize multiple rehabilitation and flood management objectives. The study showed that all of these analyses were needed for integrated rehabilitation and flood management and that some incremental improvements in stream ecological health, aesthetics, and public recreational opportunities could be achieved in this challenging environment. These methods should be considered in a range of types of stream rehabilitation projects.

Quality of Disease Management and Risk of Mortality in English Primary Care Practices

PubMed Central

Dusheiko, Mark; Gravelle, Hugh; Martin, Stephen; Smith, Peter C

2015-01-01

Objective To investigate whether better management of chronic conditions by family practices reduces mortality risk. Data Two random samples of 5 million patients registered with over 8,000 English family practices followed up for 4 years (2004/5–2007/8). Measures of the quality of disease management for 10 conditions were constructed for each family practice for each year. The outcome measure was an indicator taking the value 1 if the patient died during a specified year, 0 otherwise. Study Design Cross-section and multilevel panel data multiple logistic regressions were estimated. Covariates included age, gender, morbidity, hospitalizations, attributed socio-economic characteristics, and local health care supply measures. Principal Findings Although a composite measure of the quality of disease management for all 10 conditions was significantly associated with lower mortality, only the quality of stroke care was significant when all 10 quality measures were entered in the regression. Conclusions The panel data results suggest that a 1 percent improvement in the quality of stroke care could reduce the annual number of deaths in England by 782 [95 percent CI: 423, 1140]. A longer study period may be necessary to detect any mortality impact of better management of other conditions. PMID:25597263

Medical and surgical management of perianal Crohn’s disease

PubMed Central

Adegbola, Samuel O.; Pisani, Anthea; Sahnan, Kapil; Tozer, Phil; Ellul, Pierre; Warusavitarne, Janindra

2018-01-01

Crohn’s disease is increasingly thought to encompass multiple possible phenotypes. Perianal manifestations account for one such phenotype and represent an independent disease modifier. In its more severe form, perianal Crohn’s disease confers a higher risk of a severe and disabling disease course, relapses, hospital admissions and operations. This, in turn, imposes a considerable burden and disability on patients. Identification of the precise manifestation is important, as management is nuanced, with both medical and surgical components, and is best undertaken in a multidisciplinary setting for both diagnosis and ongoing treatment. The introduction of biologic medication has heralded a significant addition to the management of fistulizing perianal Crohn’s disease in particular, albeit with modest results. It remains a very challenging condition to treat and further work is required to optimize management in this group of patients. PMID:29507460

Spanish consensus on the use of natalizumab (Tysabri®)-2013.

PubMed

Fernández, O; García-Merino, J A; Arroyo, R; Álvarez-Cermeño, J C; Izquierdo, G; Saiz, A; Olascoaga, J; Rodríguez-Antigüedad, A; Prieto, J M; Oreja-Guevara, C; Hernández, M A; Moral, E; Meca, J; Montalbán, X

2015-06-01

Natalizumab treatment has been shown to be very efficacious in clinical trials and very effective in clinical practice in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis, by reducing relapses, slowing disease progression, and improving magnetic resonance imaging patterns. However, the drug has also been associated with a risk of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). The first consensus statement on natalizumab use, published in 2011, has been updated to include new data on diagnostic procedures, monitoring for patients undergoing treatment, PML management, and other topics of interest including the management of patients discontinuing natalizumab. This updated version followed the method used in the first consensus. A group of Spanish experts in multiple sclerosis (the authors of the present document) reviewed all currently available literature on natalizumab and identified the relevant topics would need updating based on their clinical experience. The initial draft passed through review cycles until the final version was completed. Studies in clinical practice have demonstrated that changing to natalizumab is more effective than switching between immunomodulators. They favour early treatment with natalizumab rather than using natalizumab in a later stage as a rescue therapy. Although the drug is very effective, its potential adverse effects need to be considered, with particular attention to the patient's likelihood of developing PML. The neurologist should carefully explain the risks and benefits of the treatment, comparing them to the risks of multiple sclerosis in terms the patient can understand. Before treatment is started, laboratory tests and magnetic resonance images should be available to permit proper follow-up. The risk of PML should be stratified as high, medium, or low according to presence or absence of anti-JC virus antibodies, history of immunosuppressive therapy, and treatment duration. Although the presence of anti-JC virus antibodies is a significant finding, it should not be considered an absolute contraindication for natalizumab. This update provides general recommendations, but neurologists must use their clinical expertise to provide personalised follow-up for each patient. Copyright © 2013 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Factors Contributing to the Self-Reported Prevalence of Multiple Chemical Sensitivity in Public Facility Workers and the General Population of Korea.

PubMed

Heo, Yong; Kim, Sang-Hoon; Lee, Seok-Ki; Kim, Hyoung-Ah

Multiple chemical sensitivity (MCS), an acquired disorder with multiple recurrent symptoms, has been studied for its association with diverse environmental factors. The present study investigated the factors associated with the self-reported prevalence of MCS in public facility workers and the general population in Korea. The Quick Environmental Exposure Sensitivity Inventory (QEESI) questionnaire was obtained from public facility workers (N=530) and the general population (N=500) to determine the prevalence of MCS and the degree of its risk. Information about demographic characteristics, subjective perceptions of sick building syndrome or sick house syndrome or allergy (SBS/SHS/Allergy), and certain home- or workplace-related events were also obtained. There was not a statistical difference between the public facility workers and the general population in the QEESI scores. The overall prevalence of MCS was 14.4% and there was no statistical difference between the two groups. Regarding the overall degree of risk of MCS, 21.8% of the study subjects were categorized as "very suggestive", and there was no significant difference between the two groups. Gender and the subjective perception of SBS/SHS/Allergy significantly affected the prevalence of MCS and the MCS risk criteria. Considering the absence of diagnostic criteria and/or treatment methods for MCS in Korea, these results can be utilized in establishing future strategies to manage MCS.

Bayesian Networks Improve Causal Environmental Assessments for Evidence-Based Policy.

PubMed

Carriger, John F; Barron, Mace G; Newman, Michael C

2016-12-20

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on valued ecological resources. These aspects are demonstrated through hypothetical problem scenarios that explore some major benefits of using Bayesian networks for reasoning and making inferences in evidence-based policy.

A complications-based clinical staging of obesity to guide treatment modality and intensity

PubMed Central

Daniel, Sunil; Soleymani, Taraneh; Garvey, William T.

2014-01-01

Purpose of review The current medical model for obesity management is BMI-centric because BMI is the predominant measure used to gauge disease severity, as well as indications for various treatment modalities. Recent advancements in therapy and understanding of the relationship between BMI and obesity-related complications call for a re-examination of this approach. Recent findings Advancements in treatment, including the recent approval of two new weight loss medications in the USA, have enabled development of new medical models for management of obesity. On the basis of accumulating data demonstrating the benefits of weight loss regarding multiple obesity-related complications (e.g., diabetes prevention, type 2 diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease risk, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, sleep apnea), a complications-centric model is proposed that employs weight loss as a tool to treat and prevent obesity comorbidities. This model assures that the aggressiveness of therapy is commensurate with disease severity, and that therapy is directed at those obese patients who will benefit most from weight loss therapy. The treatment algorithm is comprehensive in addressing complications and quantitative when possible in the staging of risk or disease severity. Summary A complications-centric approach to obesity management identifies patients who will benefit most from weight loss, and optimizes patient outcomes, benefit/risk ratio, and the cost–effectiveness of interventions. PMID:23974764

Cryptosporidium and Giardia in surface water: a case study from Michigan, USA to inform management of rural water systems.

PubMed

Dreelin, Erin A; Ives, Rebecca L; Molloy, Stephanie; Rose, Joan B

2014-10-14

Cryptosporidium and Giardia pose a threat to human health in rural environments where water supplies are commonly untreated and susceptible to contamination from agricultural animal waste/manure, animal wastewater, septic tank effluents and septage. Our goals for this paper are to: (1) explore the prevalence of these protozoan parasites, where they are found, in what quantities, and which genotypes are present; (2) examine relationships between disease and land use comparing human health risks between rural and urban environments; and (3) synthesize available information to gain a better understanding of risk and risk management for rural water supplies. Our results indicate that Cryptosporidium and Giardia were more prevalent in rural versus urban environments based on the number of positive samples. Genotyping showed that both the human and animal types of the parasites are found in rural and urban environments. Rural areas had a higher incidence of disease compared to urban areas based on the total number of disease cases. Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were both positively correlated (p < 0.001) with urban area, population size, and population density. Finally, a comprehensive strategy that creates knowledge pathways for data sharing among multiple levels of management may improve decision-making for protecting rural water supplies.

Review Article: Multi-criteria decision making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state-of-the-art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Brito, M. M.; Evers, M.

2015-11-01

This paper provides a review of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed and classified into the following application areas: (1) ranking of alternatives for flood mitigation, (2) reservoir flood control, (3) susceptibility, (4) hazard, (5) vulnerability, (6) risk, (7) coping capacity, and (8) emergency management. Additionally, the articles were categorized based on the publication year, MCDM method, whether they were or were not carried out in a participatory process, and if uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular technique, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest on MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and is seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Based on the survey, some suggestions for further investigation are provided.

Behavioral and Psychological Phenotyping of Physical Activity and Sedentary Behavior: Implications for Weight Management.

PubMed

Bryan, Angela D; Jakicic, John M; Hunter, Christine M; Evans, Mary E; Yanovski, Susan Z; Epstein, Leonard H

2017-10-01

Risk for obesity is determined by a complex mix of genetics and lifetime exposures at multiple levels, from the metabolic milieu to psychosocial and environmental influences. These phenotypic differences underlie the variability in risk for obesity and response to weight management interventions, including differences in physical activity and sedentary behavior. As part of a broader effort focused on behavioral and psychological phenotyping in obesity research, the National Institutes of Health convened a multidisciplinary workshop to explore the state of the science in behavioral and psychological phenotyping in humans to explain individual differences in physical activity, both as a risk factor for obesity development and in response to activity-enhancing interventions. Understanding the behavioral and psychological phenotypes that contribute to differences in physical activity and sedentary behavior could allow for improved treatment matching and inform new targets for tailored, innovative, and effective weight management interventions. This summary provides the rationale for identifying psychological and behavioral phenotypes relevant to physical activity and identifies opportunities for future research to better understand, define, measure, and validate putative phenotypic factors and characterize emerging phenotypes that are empirically associated with initiation of physical activity, response to intervention, and sustained changes in physical activity. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

Cryptosporidium and Giardia in Surface Water: A Case Study from Michigan, USA to Inform Management of Rural Water Systems

PubMed Central

Dreelin, Erin A.; Ives, Rebecca L.; Molloy, Stephanie; Rose, Joan B.

2014-01-01

Cryptosporidium and Giardia pose a threat to human health in rural environments where water supplies are commonly untreated and susceptible to contamination from agricultural animal waste/manure, animal wastewater, septic tank effluents and septage. Our goals for this paper are to: (1) explore the prevalence of these protozoan parasites, where they are found, in what quantities, and which genotypes are present; (2) examine relationships between disease and land use comparing human health risks between rural and urban environments; and (3) synthesize available information to gain a better understanding of risk and risk management for rural water supplies. Our results indicate that Cryptosporidium and Giardia were more prevalent in rural versus urban environments based on the number of positive samples. Genotyping showed that both the human and animal types of the parasites are found in rural and urban environments. Rural areas had a higher incidence of disease compared to urban areas based on the total number of disease cases. Cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis were both positively correlated (p < 0.001) with urban area, population size, and population density. Finally, a comprehensive strategy that creates knowledge pathways for data sharing among multiple levels of management may improve decision-making for protecting rural water supplies. PMID:25317981

Predicting Health Resilience in Pediatric Type 1 Diabetes: A Test of the Resilience Model Framework.

PubMed

Rohan, Jennifer M; Huang, Bin; Pendley, Jennifer Shroff; Delamater, Alan; Dolan, Lawrence; Reeves, Grafton; Drotar, Dennis

2015-10-01

This research examined whether individual and family-level factors during the transition from late childhood to early adolescence protected individuals from an increased risk of poor glycemic control across time, which is a predictor of future diabetes-related complications (i.e., health resilience). This longitudinal, multisite study included 239 patients with type 1 diabetes and their caregivers. Glycemic control was based on hemoglobin A1c. Individual and family-level factors included: demographic variables, youth behavioral regulation, adherence (frequency of blood glucose monitoring), diabetes self-management, level of parental support for diabetes autonomy, level of youth mastery and responsibility for diabetes management, and diabetes-related family conflict. Longitudinal mixed-effects logistic regression indicated that testing blood glucose more frequently, better self-management, and less diabetes-related family conflict were indicators of health resilience. Multiple individual and family-level factors predicted risk for future health complications. Future research should develop interventions targeting specific individual and family-level factors to sustain glycemic control within recommended targets, which reduces the risk of developing future health complications during the transition to adolescence and adulthood. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Head and Neck Cancer and the Elderly Patient.

PubMed

Cervenka, Brian P; Rao, Shyam; Bewley, Arnaud F

2018-05-22

Management of head and neck cancer in the elderly patient is particularly challenging given the high morbidity associated with treatment. Surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy have all been demonstrated as effective in older patients; however, older patients are more susceptible to treatment-induced toxicity, which can limit the survival benefits of certain interventions. This susceptibility is better associated with the presence of multiple comorbidities and decreasing functional status than with age alone. Screening tools allow for risk stratification, treatment deintensification, and even treatment avoidance in patients who are deemed at high-risk of being harmed by standard therapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Constellation Mission Operation Working Group: ESMO Maneuver Planning Process Review

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moyer, Eric

2015-01-01

The Earth Science Mission Operation (ESMO) Project created an Independent Review Board to review our Conjunction Risk evaluation process and Maneuver Planning Process to identify improvements that safely manages mission conjunction risks, maintains ground track science requirements, and minimizes overall hours expended on High Interest Events (HIE). The Review Board is evaluating the current maneuver process which requires support by multiple groups. In the past year, there have been several changes to the processes although many prior and new concerns exist. This presentation will discuss maneuver process reviews and Board comments, ESMO assessment and path foward, ESMO future plans, recent changes and concerns.