Model selection for marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data with missing observations and covariate measurement error.

PubMed

Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

2015-10-01

Missing observations and covariate measurement error commonly arise in longitudinal data. However, existing methods for model selection in marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data fail to address the potential bias resulting from these issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a new model selection criterion, the Generalized Longitudinal Information Criterion, which is based on an approximately unbiased estimator for the expected quadratic error of a considered marginal model accounting for both data missingness and covariate measurement error. The simulation results reveal that the proposed method performs quite well in the presence of missing data and covariate measurement error. On the contrary, the naive procedures without taking care of such complexity in data may perform quite poorly. The proposed method is applied to data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to assess the relationship of depression with health and social status in the elderly, accommodating measurement error in the covariate as well as missing observations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

PubMed

Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

2015-08-01

Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

MIXOR: a computer program for mixed-effects ordinal regression analysis.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-03-01

MIXOR provides maximum marginal likelihood estimates for mixed-effects ordinal probit, logistic, and complementary log-log regression models. These models can be used for analysis of dichotomous and ordinal outcomes from either a clustered or longitudinal design. For clustered data, the mixed-effects model assumes that data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is jointly estimated with the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for dependence resulting from clustering of the data. Similarly, for longitudinal data, the mixed-effects approach can allow for individual-varying intercepts and slopes across time, and can estimate the degree to which these time-related effects vary in the population of individuals. MIXOR uses marginal maximum likelihood estimation, utilizing a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the Cholesky factor of the random-effects variance-covariance matrix is estimated, along with the effects of model covariates. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXOR are provided.

Marginalized zero-inflated Poisson models with missing covariates.

PubMed

Benecha, Habtamu K; Preisser, John S; Divaris, Kimon; Herring, Amy H; Das, Kalyan

2018-05-11

Unlike zero-inflated Poisson regression, marginalized zero-inflated Poisson (MZIP) models for counts with excess zeros provide estimates with direct interpretations for the overall effects of covariates on the marginal mean. In the presence of missing covariates, MZIP and many other count data models are ordinarily fitted using complete case analysis methods due to lack of appropriate statistical methods and software. This article presents an estimation method for MZIP models with missing covariates. The method, which is applicable to other missing data problems, is illustrated and compared with complete case analysis by using simulations and dental data on the caries preventive effects of a school-based fluoride mouthrinse program. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Weibull mixture regression for marginal inference in zero-heavy continuous outcomes.

PubMed

Gebregziabher, Mulugeta; Voronca, Delia; Teklehaimanot, Abeba; Santa Ana, Elizabeth J

2017-06-01

Continuous outcomes with preponderance of zero values are ubiquitous in data that arise from biomedical studies, for example studies of addictive disorders. This is known to lead to violation of standard assumptions in parametric inference and enhances the risk of misleading conclusions unless managed properly. Two-part models are commonly used to deal with this problem. However, standard two-part models have limitations with respect to obtaining parameter estimates that have marginal interpretation of covariate effects which are important in many biomedical applications. Recently marginalized two-part models are proposed but their development is limited to log-normal and log-skew-normal distributions. Thus, in this paper, we propose a finite mixture approach, with Weibull mixture regression as a special case, to deal with the problem. We use extensive simulation study to assess the performance of the proposed model in finite samples and to make comparisons with other family of models via statistical information and mean squared error criteria. We demonstrate its application on real data from a randomized controlled trial of addictive disorders. Our results show that a two-component Weibull mixture model is preferred for modeling zero-heavy continuous data when the non-zero part are simulated from Weibull or similar distributions such as Gamma or truncated Gauss.

Acculturation and health-related quality of life: results from the German National Cohort migrant feasibility study.

PubMed

Brand, Tilman; Samkange-Zeeb, Florence; Ellert, Ute; Keil, Thomas; Krist, Lilian; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Razum, Oliver; Reiss, Katharina; Greiser, Karin Halina; Zimmermann, Heiko; Becher, Heiko; Zeeb, Hajo

2017-06-01

We assessed the association between acculturation and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) among persons with a Turkish migrant background in Germany. 1226 adults of Turkish origin were recruited in four German cities. Acculturation was assessed using the Frankfurt Acculturation Scale resulting in four groups (integration, assimilation, separation and marginalization). Short Form-8 physical and mental components were used to assess the HRQoL. Associations were analysed with linear regression models. Of the respondents, 20% were classified as integrated, 29% assimilated, 29% separated and 19% as marginalized. Separation was associated with poorer physical and mental health (linear regression coefficient (RC) = -2.3, 95% CI -3.9 to -0.8 and RC = -2.4, 95% CI -4.4 to -0.5, respectively; reference: integration). Marginalization was associated with poorer mental health in descendants of migrants (RC = -6.4, 95% CI -12.0 to -0.8; reference: integration). Separation and marginalization are associated with a poorer HRQoL. Policies should support the integration of migrants, and health promotion interventions should target separated and marginalized migrants to improve their HRQoL.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Long, D Leann; Stamm, John W

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two data sets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in 2 groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial comparing 3 toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analyzed with negative binomial hurdle, zero-inflated negative binomial, and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the randomized clinical trial were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. The choice of statistical model class should match the study's purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Matching the Statistical Model to the Research Question for Dental Caries Indices with Many Zero Counts

PubMed Central

Preisser, John S.; Long, D. Leann; Stamm, John W.

2017-01-01

Marginalized zero-inflated count regression models have recently been introduced for the statistical analysis of dental caries indices and other zero-inflated count data as alternatives to traditional zero-inflated and hurdle models. Unlike the standard approaches, the marginalized models directly estimate overall exposure or treatment effects by relating covariates to the marginal mean count. This article discusses model interpretation and model class choice according to the research question being addressed in caries research. Two datasets, one consisting of fictional dmft counts in two groups and the other on DMFS among schoolchildren from a randomized clinical trial (RCT) comparing three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries, are analysed with negative binomial hurdle (NBH), zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB), and marginalized zero-inflated negative binomial (MZINB) models. In the first example, estimates of treatment effects vary according to the type of incidence rate ratio (IRR) estimated by the model. Estimates of IRRs in the analysis of the RCT were similar despite their distinctive interpretations. Choice of statistical model class should match the study’s purpose, while accounting for the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmft and DMFS indices more frequently generate zero counts. Marginalized (marginal mean) models for zero-inflated count data should be considered for direct assessment of exposure effects on the marginal mean dental caries count in the presence of high frequencies of zero counts. PMID:28291962

Mental health status and healthcare utilization among community dwelling older adults.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Mileski, Michael; Kruse, Clemens Scott; Mask, Andrew

2018-04-27

Shifts in mental health utilization patterns are necessary to allow for meaningful access to care for vulnerable populations. There have been long standing issues in how mental health is provided, which has caused problems in that care being efficacious for those seeking it. To assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization among adults ≥65 years. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess the relationship between mental health status and healthcare utilization related to office-based physician visits, while a two-part model, consisting of logistic regression and negative binomial regression, was used to separately model emergency visits and inpatient services. The receipt of care in office-based settings were marginally higher for subjects with mental health difficulties. Both probabilities and counts of inpatient hospitalizations were similar across mental health categories. The count of ER visits was similar across mental health categories; however, the probability of having an emergency department visit was marginally higher for older adults who reported mental health difficulties in 2012. These findings are encouraging and lend promise to the recent initiatives on addressing gaps in mental healthcare services.

Retargeted Least Squares Regression Algorithm.

PubMed

Zhang, Xu-Yao; Wang, Lingfeng; Xiang, Shiming; Liu, Cheng-Lin

2015-09-01

This brief presents a framework of retargeted least squares regression (ReLSR) for multicategory classification. The core idea is to directly learn the regression targets from data other than using the traditional zero-one matrix as regression targets. The learned target matrix can guarantee a large margin constraint for the requirement of correct classification for each data point. Compared with the traditional least squares regression (LSR) and a recently proposed discriminative LSR models, ReLSR is much more accurate in measuring the classification error of the regression model. Furthermore, ReLSR is a single and compact model, hence there is no need to train two-class (binary) machines that are independent of each other. The convex optimization problem of ReLSR is solved elegantly and efficiently with an alternating procedure including regression and retargeting as substeps. The experimental evaluation over a range of databases identifies the validity of our method.

Quantile regression in the presence of monotone missingness with sensitivity analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Minzhao; Daniels, Michael J.; Perri, Michael G.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we develop methods for longitudinal quantile regression when there is monotone missingness. In particular, we propose pattern mixture models with a constraint that provides a straightforward interpretation of the marginal quantile regression parameters. Our approach allows sensitivity analysis which is an essential component in inference for incomplete data. To facilitate computation of the likelihood, we propose a novel way to obtain analytic forms for the required integrals. We conduct simulations to examine the robustness of our approach to modeling assumptions and compare its performance to competing approaches. The model is applied to data from a recent clinical trial on weight management. PMID:26041008

Copula Regression Analysis of Simultaneously Recorded Frontal Eye Field and Inferotemporal Spiking Activity during Object-Based Working Memory

PubMed Central

Hu, Meng; Clark, Kelsey L.; Gong, Xiajing; Noudoost, Behrad; Li, Mingyao; Moore, Tirin

2015-01-01

Inferotemporal (IT) neurons are known to exhibit persistent, stimulus-selective activity during the delay period of object-based working memory tasks. Frontal eye field (FEF) neurons show robust, spatially selective delay period activity during memory-guided saccade tasks. We present a copula regression paradigm to examine neural interaction of these two types of signals between areas IT and FEF of the monkey during a working memory task. This paradigm is based on copula models that can account for both marginal distribution over spiking activity of individual neurons within each area and joint distribution over ensemble activity of neurons between areas. Considering the popular GLMs as marginal models, we developed a general and flexible likelihood framework that uses the copula to integrate separate GLMs into a joint regression analysis. Such joint analysis essentially leads to a multivariate analog of the marginal GLM theory and hence efficient model estimation. In addition, we show that Granger causality between spike trains can be readily assessed via the likelihood ratio statistic. The performance of this method is validated by extensive simulations, and compared favorably to the widely used GLMs. When applied to spiking activity of simultaneously recorded FEF and IT neurons during working memory task, we observed significant Granger causality influence from FEF to IT, but not in the opposite direction, suggesting the role of the FEF in the selection and retention of visual information during working memory. The copula model has the potential to provide unique neurophysiological insights about network properties of the brain. PMID:26063909

Logistic regression for dichotomized counts.

PubMed

Preisser, John S; Das, Kalyan; Benecha, Habtamu; Stamm, John W

2016-12-01

Sometimes there is interest in a dichotomized outcome indicating whether a count variable is positive or zero. Under this scenario, the application of ordinary logistic regression may result in efficiency loss, which is quantifiable under an assumed model for the counts. In such situations, a shared-parameter hurdle model is investigated for more efficient estimation of regression parameters relating to overall effects of covariates on the dichotomous outcome, while handling count data with many zeroes. One model part provides a logistic regression containing marginal log odds ratio effects of primary interest, while an ancillary model part describes the mean count of a Poisson or negative binomial process in terms of nuisance regression parameters. Asymptotic efficiency of the logistic model parameter estimators of the two-part models is evaluated with respect to ordinary logistic regression. Simulations are used to assess the properties of the models with respect to power and Type I error, the latter investigated under both misspecified and correctly specified models. The methods are applied to data from a randomized clinical trial of three toothpaste formulations to prevent incident dental caries in a large population of Scottish schoolchildren. © The Author(s) 2014.

Marginal analysis in assessing factors contributing time to physician in the Emergency Department using operations data.

PubMed

Pathan, Sameer A; Bhutta, Zain A; Moinudheen, Jibin; Jenkins, Dominic; Silva, Ashwin D; Sharma, Yogdutt; Saleh, Warda A; Khudabakhsh, Zeenat; Irfan, Furqan B; Thomas, Stephen H

2016-01-01

Background: Standard Emergency Department (ED) operations goals include minimization of the time interval (tMD) between patients' initial ED presentation and initial physician evaluation. This study assessed factors known (or suspected) to influence tMD with a two-step goal. The first step was generation of a multivariate model identifying parameters associated with prolongation of tMD at a single study center. The second step was the use of a study center-specific multivariate tMD model as a basis for predictive marginal probability analysis; the marginal model allowed for prediction of the degree of ED operations benefit that would be affected with specific ED operations improvements. Methods: The study was conducted using one month (May 2015) of data obtained from an ED administrative database (EDAD) in an urban academic tertiary ED with an annual census of approximately 500,000; during the study month, the ED saw 39,593 cases. The EDAD data were used to generate a multivariate linear regression model assessing the various demographic and operational covariates' effects on the dependent variable tMD. Predictive marginal probability analysis was used to calculate the relative contributions of key covariates as well as demonstrate the likely tMD impact on modifying those covariates with operational improvements. Analyses were conducted with Stata 14MP, with significance defined at p  < 0.05 and confidence intervals (CIs) reported at the 95% level. Results: In an acceptable linear regression model that accounted for just over half of the overall variance in tMD (adjusted r 2 0.51), important contributors to tMD included shift census ( p  = 0.008), shift time of day ( p  = 0.002), and physician coverage n ( p  = 0.004). These strong associations remained even after adjusting for each other and other covariates. Marginal predictive probability analysis was used to predict the overall tMD impact (improvement from 50 to 43 minutes, p  < 0.001) of consistent staffing with 22 physicians. Conclusions: The analysis identified expected variables contributing to tMD with regression demonstrating significance and effect magnitude of alterations in covariates including patient census, shift time of day, and number of physicians. Marginal analysis provided operationally useful demonstration of the need to adjust physician coverage numbers, prompting changes at the study ED. The methods used in this analysis may prove useful in other EDs wishing to analyze operations information with the goal of predicting which interventions may have the most benefit.

Parameter estimation of multivariate multiple regression model using bayesian with non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saputro, D. R. S.; Amalia, F.; Widyaningsih, P.; Affan, R. C.

2018-05-01

Bayesian method is a method that can be used to estimate the parameters of multivariate multiple regression model. Bayesian method has two distributions, there are prior and posterior distributions. Posterior distribution is influenced by the selection of prior distribution. Jeffreys’ prior distribution is a kind of Non-informative prior distribution. This prior is used when the information about parameter not available. Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution is combined with the sample information resulting the posterior distribution. Posterior distribution is used to estimate the parameter. The purposes of this research is to estimate the parameters of multivariate regression model using Bayesian method with Non-informative Jeffreys’ prior distribution. Based on the results and discussion, parameter estimation of β and Σ which were obtained from expected value of random variable of marginal posterior distribution function. The marginal posterior distributions for β and Σ are multivariate normal and inverse Wishart. However, in calculation of the expected value involving integral of a function which difficult to determine the value. Therefore, approach is needed by generating of random samples according to the posterior distribution characteristics of each parameter using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling algorithm.

Comparison of marginal bone loss and implant success between axial and tilted implants in maxillary All-on-4 treatment concept rehabilitations after 5 years of follow-up.

PubMed

Hopp, Milena; de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Maló, Paulo

2017-10-01

There is need for more scientific and clinical information on longer-term outcomes of tilted implants compared to implants inserted in an axial position. Comparison of marginal bone loss and implant success after a 5-year follow-up between axial and tilted implants inserted for full-arch maxillary rehabilitation. The retrospective clinical study included 891 patients with 3564 maxillary implants rehabilitated according to the All-on-4 treatment concept. The follow-up time was 5 years. Linear mixed-effect models were performed to analyze the influence of implant orientation (axial/tilted) on marginal bone loss and binary logistic regression to assess the effect of patient characteristics on occurrence of marginal bone loss >2.8 mm. Only those patients with measurements of at least one axial and one tilted implant available were analyzed. This resulted in a data set of 2379 implants (1201 axial, 1178 tilted) in 626 patients (=reduced data set). Axial and tilted implants showed comparable mean marginal bone losses of 1.14 ± 0.71 and 1.19 ± 0.82 mm, respectively. Mixed model analysis indicated that marginal bone loss levels at 5 years follow up was not significantly affected by the orientation (axial/tilted) of the implants in the maxillary bone. Smoking and female gender were associated with marginal bone loss >2.8 mm in a logistic regression analysis. Five-year implant success rates were 96%. The occurrence of implant failure showed to be statistically independent from orientation. Within the limitations of this study and considering a follow-up time of 5 years, it can be concluded that tilted implants behave similarly with regards to marginal bone loss and implant success in comparison to axial implants in full-arch rehabilitation of the maxilla. Longer-term outcomes (10 years +) are needed to verify this result. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

[Health expenditures, income inequality, and the marginalization index in Mexico's health system].

PubMed

Pinzón Florez, Carlos Eduardo; Reveiz, Ludovic; Idrovo, Alvaro J; Reyes Morales, Hortensia

2014-01-01

Evaluate the effect of the relationship among public health expenditures, income inequality, and the marginalization index on maternal and child mortality in Mexico, to determine the effect of these factors on health system performance from a technical efficiency perspective. An ecological study of 32 Mexican states. Correlations were estimated between maternal and infant mortality and public health expenditures in total per capita, federal per capita, and state per capita for the years 2000, 2005, and 2010 (Gini coefficient and marginalization index). Linear regressions were used to explore the association of these variables with health indicators in the state systems. Negative correlations were observed for the marginalization index and Gini coefficient with regard to life expectancy at birth (-0.62 and -0.28 respectively). Furthermore, there was a positive correlation of 0.59 between the marginalization index and infant mortality (P <0.05). Multiple linear regression models revealed a negative effect of the marginalization index and Gini coefficient on health out-comes. Federal funding had a positive effect on system performance in terms of health indicators. Health system reform in Mexico has had a positive impact on the country's health indicators; federal financial investment seems to be effective in this regard. Social determinants have an important effect on health system performance, and analysis using multisectoral and multidisciplinary approaches are needed in addressing them.

Geoacoustic models of the Donghae-to-Gangneung region in the Korean continental margin of the East Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ryang, Woo Hun; Kim, Seong Pil; Hahn, Jooyoung

2016-04-01

Geoacoustic model is to provide a model of the real seafloor with measured, extrapolated, and predicted values of geoacoustic environmental parameters. It controls acoustic propagation in underwater acoustics. In the Korean continental margin of the East Sea, this study reconstructed geoacoustic models using geoacoustic and marine geologic data of the Donghae-to-Gangneung region (37.4° to 37.8° in latitude). The models were based on the data of the high-resolution subbottom and air-gun seismic profiles with sediment cores. The Donghae region comprised measured P-wave velocities and attenuations of the cores, whereas the Gangneung region comprised regression values using measured values of the adjacent areas. Geoacoustic data of the cores were extrapolated down to a depth of the geoacoustic models. For actual modeling, the P-wave speed of the models was compensated to in situ depth below the sea floor using the Hamilton method. These geoacoustic models of this region probably contribute for geoacoustic and underwater acoustic modelling reflecting vertical and lateral variability of acoustic properties in the Korean continental margin of the western East Sea. Keywords: geoacoustic model, environmental parameter, East Sea, continental margin Acknowledgements: This research was supported by the research grants from the Agency of Defense Development (UD140003DD and UE140033DD).

The PIT-trap-A "model-free" bootstrap procedure for inference about regression models with discrete, multivariate responses.

PubMed

Warton, David I; Thibaut, Loïc; Wang, Yi Alice

2017-01-01

Bootstrap methods are widely used in statistics, and bootstrapping of residuals can be especially useful in the regression context. However, difficulties are encountered extending residual resampling to regression settings where residuals are not identically distributed (thus not amenable to bootstrapping)-common examples including logistic or Poisson regression and generalizations to handle clustered or multivariate data, such as generalised estimating equations. We propose a bootstrap method based on probability integral transform (PIT-) residuals, which we call the PIT-trap, which assumes data come from some marginal distribution F of known parametric form. This method can be understood as a type of "model-free bootstrap", adapted to the problem of discrete and highly multivariate data. PIT-residuals have the key property that they are (asymptotically) pivotal. The PIT-trap thus inherits the key property, not afforded by any other residual resampling approach, that the marginal distribution of data can be preserved under PIT-trapping. This in turn enables the derivation of some standard bootstrap properties, including second-order correctness of pivotal PIT-trap test statistics. In multivariate data, bootstrapping rows of PIT-residuals affords the property that it preserves correlation in data without the need for it to be modelled, a key point of difference as compared to a parametric bootstrap. The proposed method is illustrated on an example involving multivariate abundance data in ecology, and demonstrated via simulation to have improved properties as compared to competing resampling methods.

The PIT-trap—A “model-free” bootstrap procedure for inference about regression models with discrete, multivariate responses

PubMed Central

Thibaut, Loïc; Wang, Yi Alice

2017-01-01

Bootstrap methods are widely used in statistics, and bootstrapping of residuals can be especially useful in the regression context. However, difficulties are encountered extending residual resampling to regression settings where residuals are not identically distributed (thus not amenable to bootstrapping)—common examples including logistic or Poisson regression and generalizations to handle clustered or multivariate data, such as generalised estimating equations. We propose a bootstrap method based on probability integral transform (PIT-) residuals, which we call the PIT-trap, which assumes data come from some marginal distribution F of known parametric form. This method can be understood as a type of “model-free bootstrap”, adapted to the problem of discrete and highly multivariate data. PIT-residuals have the key property that they are (asymptotically) pivotal. The PIT-trap thus inherits the key property, not afforded by any other residual resampling approach, that the marginal distribution of data can be preserved under PIT-trapping. This in turn enables the derivation of some standard bootstrap properties, including second-order correctness of pivotal PIT-trap test statistics. In multivariate data, bootstrapping rows of PIT-residuals affords the property that it preserves correlation in data without the need for it to be modelled, a key point of difference as compared to a parametric bootstrap. The proposed method is illustrated on an example involving multivariate abundance data in ecology, and demonstrated via simulation to have improved properties as compared to competing resampling methods. PMID:28738071

Bivariate categorical data analysis using normal linear conditional multinomial probability model.

PubMed

Sun, Bingrui; Sutradhar, Brajendra

2015-02-10

Bivariate multinomial data such as the left and right eyes retinopathy status data are analyzed either by using a joint bivariate probability model or by exploiting certain odds ratio-based association models. However, the joint bivariate probability model yields marginal probabilities, which are complicated functions of marginal and association parameters for both variables, and the odds ratio-based association model treats the odds ratios involved in the joint probabilities as 'working' parameters, which are consequently estimated through certain arbitrary 'working' regression models. Also, this later odds ratio-based model does not provide any easy interpretations of the correlations between two categorical variables. On the basis of pre-specified marginal probabilities, in this paper, we develop a bivariate normal type linear conditional multinomial probability model to understand the correlations between two categorical variables. The parameters involved in the model are consistently estimated using the optimal likelihood and generalized quasi-likelihood approaches. The proposed model and the inferences are illustrated through an intensive simulation study as well as an analysis of the well-known Wisconsin Diabetic Retinopathy status data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Association Between Peri-implant Bone Morphology and Marginal Bone Loss: A Retrospective Study on Implant-Supported Mandibular Overdentures.

PubMed

Ding, Qian; Zhang, Lei; Geraets, Wil; Wu, Wuqing; Zhou, Yongsheng; Wismeijer, Daniel; Xie, Qiufei

The present study aimed to explore the association between marginal bone loss and type of peri-implant bony defect determined using a new peri-implant bony defect classification system. A total of 110 patients with implant-supported mandibular overdentures were involved. Clinical information was collected, including gender, age, smoking habit, and the overdenture attachment system used. Peri-implant bony defect types and marginal distances (ie, distance between the marginal bone level and the top of the implant shoulder) of all sites were identified on panoramic radiographs by a single experienced observer. The associations between marginal distance and peri-implant bony defect type, gender, age, smoking habit, attachment system, and time after implantation were investigated using marginal generalized linear models and regression analysis. A total of 83 participants were included in the final sample with a total of 224 implants involving 3,124 implant sites. The mean observation time was 10.7 years. All peri-implant bony defect types except Type 5 (slit-like) were significantly related to marginal distance in all models (P < .01). Smoking and time after implantation were significantly related to marginal distance while gender, age, and the overdenture attachment system used were not. The peri-implant bony defect type, determined using the new classification system, is associated with the extent of marginal bone loss.

Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

PubMed

Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

2016-02-15

In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Influence of enamel preservation on failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers.

PubMed

Gurel, Galip; Sesma, Newton; Calamita, Marcelo A; Coachman, Christian; Morimoto, Susana

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the failure rates of porcelain laminate veneers (PLVs) and the influence of clinical parameters on these rates in a retrospective survey of up to 12 years. Five hundred eighty laminate veneers were bonded in 66 patients. The following parameters were analyzed: type of preparation (depth and margin), crown lengthening, presence of restoration, diastema, crowding, discoloration, abrasion, and attrition. Survival was analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox regression modeling was used to determine which factors would predict PLV failure. Forty-two veneers (7.2%) failed in 23 patients, and an overall cumulative survival rate of 86% was observed. A statistically significant association was noted between failure and the limits of the prepared tooth surface (margin and depth). The most frequent failure type was fracture (n = 20). The results revealed no significant influence of crown lengthening apically, presence of restoration, diastema, discoloration, abrasion, or attrition on failure rates. Multivariable analysis (Cox regression model) also showed that PLVs bonded to dentin and teeth with preparation margins in dentin were approximately 10 times more likely to fail than PLVs bonded to enamel. Moreover, coronal crown lengthening increased the risk of PLV failure by 2.3 times. A survival rate of 99% was observed for veneers with preparations confined to enamel and 94% for veneers with enamel only at the margins. Laminate veneers have high survival rates when bonded to enamel and provide a safe and predictable treatment option that preserves tooth structure.

Comparison of naïve Bayes and logistic regression for computer-aided diagnosis of breast masses using ultrasound imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cary, Theodore W.; Cwanger, Alyssa; Venkatesh, Santosh S.; Conant, Emily F.; Sehgal, Chandra M.

2012-03-01

This study compares the performance of two proven but very different machine learners, Naïve Bayes and logistic regression, for differentiating malignant and benign breast masses using ultrasound imaging. Ultrasound images of 266 masses were analyzed quantitatively for shape, echogenicity, margin characteristics, and texture features. These features along with patient age, race, and mammographic BI-RADS category were used to train Naïve Bayes and logistic regression classifiers to diagnose lesions as malignant or benign. ROC analysis was performed using all of the features and using only a subset that maximized information gain. Performance was determined by the area under the ROC curve, Az, obtained from leave-one-out cross validation. Naïve Bayes showed significant variation (Az 0.733 +/- 0.035 to 0.840 +/- 0.029, P < 0.002) with the choice of features, but the performance of logistic regression was relatively unchanged under feature selection (Az 0.839 +/- 0.029 to 0.859 +/- 0.028, P = 0.605). Out of 34 features, a subset of 6 gave the highest information gain: brightness difference, margin sharpness, depth-to-width, mammographic BI-RADs, age, and race. The probabilities of malignancy determined by Naïve Bayes and logistic regression after feature selection showed significant correlation (R2= 0.87, P < 0.0001). The diagnostic performance of Naïve Bayes and logistic regression can be comparable, but logistic regression is more robust. Since probability of malignancy cannot be measured directly, high correlation between the probabilities derived from two basic but dissimilar models increases confidence in the predictive power of machine learning models for characterizing solid breast masses on ultrasound.

Analysis of Longitudinal Studies With Repeated Outcome Measures: Adjusting for Time-Dependent Confounding Using Conventional Methods.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Daniel, Rhian M; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2018-05-01

Estimation of causal effects of time-varying exposures using longitudinal data is a common problem in epidemiology. When there are time-varying confounders, which may include past outcomes, affected by prior exposure, standard regression methods can lead to bias. Methods such as inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models have been developed to address this problem. However, in this paper we show how standard regression methods can be used, even in the presence of time-dependent confounding, to estimate the total effect of an exposure on a subsequent outcome by controlling appropriately for prior exposures, outcomes, and time-varying covariates. We refer to the resulting estimation approach as sequential conditional mean models (SCMMs), which can be fitted using generalized estimating equations. We outline this approach and describe how including propensity score adjustment is advantageous. We compare the causal effects being estimated using SCMMs and marginal structural models, and we compare the two approaches using simulations. SCMMs enable more precise inferences, with greater robustness against model misspecification via propensity score adjustment, and easily accommodate continuous exposures and interactions. A new test for direct effects of past exposures on a subsequent outcome is described.

Effect of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health.

PubMed

Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Walter, Michael H; Kastner, Christian; Toutenburg, Helge

2002-02-01

The clinical impact of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health has not been thoroughly quantified. This study evaluated the effect of posterior crown margin placement with multivariate analysis. Ten general dentists reviewed 240 patients with 480 metal-ceramic crowns in a prospective clinical trial. The alloy was randomly selected from 2 high gold, 1 low gold, and 1 palladium alloy. Variables were the alloy used, oral hygiene index score before treatment, location of crown margins at baseline, and plaque index and sulcus bleeding index scores recorded for restored and control teeth after 1 year. The effect of crown margin placement on sulcular bleeding and plaque accumulation was analyzed with regression models (P<.05). The probability of plaque at 1 year increased with increasing oral hygiene index score before treatment. The lingual surfaces demonstrated the highest probability of plaque. The risk of bleeding at intrasulcular posterior crown margins was approximately twice that at supragingival margins. Poor oral hygiene before treatment and plaque also were associated with sulcular bleeding. Facial sites exhibited a lower probability of sulcular bleeding than lingual surfaces. Type of alloy did not influence sulcular bleeding. In this study, placement of crown margins was one of several parameters that affected gingival health.

Outdoor Recreation Constraints: An Examination of Race, Gender, and Rural Dwelling

Treesearch

Cassandra Y. Johnson; J. Michael Bowker; H. Ken Cordell

2001-01-01

We assess whether traditionally marginalized groups in American society (African-Americans, women, rural dwellers) perceive more constraints to outdoor recreation participation than other groups. A series of logistic regressions are applied to a national recreation survey and used to model the probability that individuals perceive certain constraints to...

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data.

PubMed

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A; Coull, Brent A

2016-10-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias.

Marginalized zero-altered models for longitudinal count data

PubMed Central

Tabb, Loni Philip; Tchetgen, Eric J. Tchetgen; Wellenius, Greg A.; Coull, Brent A.

2015-01-01

Count data often exhibit more zeros than predicted by common count distributions like the Poisson or negative binomial. In recent years, there has been considerable interest in methods for analyzing zero-inflated count data in longitudinal or other correlated data settings. A common approach has been to extend zero-inflated Poisson models to include random effects that account for correlation among observations. However, these models have been shown to have a few drawbacks, including interpretability of regression coefficients and numerical instability of fitting algorithms even when the data arise from the assumed model. To address these issues, we propose a model that parameterizes the marginal associations between the count outcome and the covariates as easily interpretable log relative rates, while including random effects to account for correlation among observations. One of the main advantages of this marginal model is that it allows a basis upon which we can directly compare the performance of standard methods that ignore zero inflation with that of a method that explicitly takes zero inflation into account. We present simulations of these various model formulations in terms of bias and variance estimation. Finally, we apply the proposed approach to analyze toxicological data of the effect of emissions on cardiac arrhythmias. PMID:27867423

Numerical analysis and experimental studies on solenoid common rail diesel injector with worn control valve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krivtsov, S. N.; Yakimov, I. V.; Ozornin, S. P.

2018-03-01

A mathematical model of a solenoid common rail fuel injector was developed. Its difference from existing models is control valve wear simulation. A common rail injector of 0445110376 Series (Cummins ISf 2.8 Diesel engine) produced by Bosch Company was used as a research object. Injector parameters (fuel delivery and back leakage) were determined by calculation and experimental methods. GT-Suite model average R2 is 0.93 which means that it predicts the injection rate shape very accurately (nominal and marginal technical conditions of an injector). Numerical analysis and experimental studies showed that control valve wear increases back leakage and fuel delivery (especially at 160 MPa). The regression models for determining fuel delivery and back leakage effects on fuel pressure and energizing time were developed (for nominal and marginal technical conditions).

A baseline-free procedure for transformation models under interval censorship.

PubMed

Gu, Ming Gao; Sun, Liuquan; Zuo, Guoxin

2005-12-01

An important property of Cox regression model is that the estimation of regression parameters using the partial likelihood procedure does not depend on its baseline survival function. We call such a procedure baseline-free. Using marginal likelihood, we show that an baseline-free procedure can be derived for a class of general transformation models under interval censoring framework. The baseline-free procedure results a simplified and stable computation algorithm for some complicated and important semiparametric models, such as frailty models and heteroscedastic hazard/rank regression models, where the estimation procedures so far available involve estimation of the infinite dimensional baseline function. A detailed computational algorithm using Markov Chain Monte Carlo stochastic approximation is presented. The proposed procedure is demonstrated through extensive simulation studies, showing the validity of asymptotic consistency and normality. We also illustrate the procedure with a real data set from a study of breast cancer. A heuristic argument showing that the score function is a mean zero martingale is provided.

Estimating the Prevalence of Atrial Fibrillation from A Three-Class Mixture Model for Repeated Diagnoses

PubMed Central

Li, Liang; Mao, Huzhang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Ehrlinger, John; Blackstone, Eugene H.

2016-01-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm characterized by rapid and irregular heart beat, with or without perceivable symptoms. In clinical practice, the electrocardiogram (ECG) is often used for diagnosis of AF. Since the AF often arrives as recurrent episodes of varying frequency and duration and only the episodes that occur at the time of ECG can be detected, the AF is often underdiagnosed when a limited number of repeated ECGs are used. In studies evaluating the efficacy of AF ablation surgery, each patient undergo multiple ECGs and the AF status at the time of ECG is recorded. The objective of this paper is to estimate the marginal proportions of patients with or without AF in a population, which are important measures of the efficacy of the treatment. The underdiagnosis problem is addressed by a three-class mixture regression model in which a patient’s probability of having no AF, paroxysmal AF, and permanent AF is modeled by auxiliary baseline covariates in a nested logistic regression. A binomial regression model is specified conditional on a subject being in the paroxysmal AF group. The model parameters are estimated by the EM algorithm. These parameters are themselves nuisance parameters for the purpose of this research, but the estimators of the marginal proportions of interest can be expressed as functions of the data and these nuisance parameters and their variances can be estimated by the sandwich method. We examine the performance of the proposed methodology in simulations and two real data applications. PMID:27983754

Estimating the prevalence of atrial fibrillation from a three-class mixture model for repeated diagnoses.

PubMed

Li, Liang; Mao, Huzhang; Ishwaran, Hemant; Rajeswaran, Jeevanantham; Ehrlinger, John; Blackstone, Eugene H

2017-03-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is an abnormal heart rhythm characterized by rapid and irregular heartbeat, with or without perceivable symptoms. In clinical practice, the electrocardiogram (ECG) is often used for diagnosis of AF. Since the AF often arrives as recurrent episodes of varying frequency and duration and only the episodes that occur at the time of ECG can be detected, the AF is often underdiagnosed when a limited number of repeated ECGs are used. In studies evaluating the efficacy of AF ablation surgery, each patient undergoes multiple ECGs and the AF status at the time of ECG is recorded. The objective of this paper is to estimate the marginal proportions of patients with or without AF in a population, which are important measures of the efficacy of the treatment. The underdiagnosis problem is addressed by a three-class mixture regression model in which a patient's probability of having no AF, paroxysmal AF, and permanent AF is modeled by auxiliary baseline covariates in a nested logistic regression. A binomial regression model is specified conditional on a subject being in the paroxysmal AF group. The model parameters are estimated by the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. These parameters are themselves nuisance parameters for the purpose of this research, but the estimators of the marginal proportions of interest can be expressed as functions of the data and these nuisance parameters and their variances can be estimated by the sandwich method. We examine the performance of the proposed methodology in simulations and two real data applications. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Misspecification of Cox regression models with composite endpoints

PubMed Central

Wu, Longyang; Cook, Richard J

2012-01-01

Researchers routinely adopt composite endpoints in multicenter randomized trials designed to evaluate the effect of experimental interventions in cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer. Despite their widespread use, relatively little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of estimators of treatment effect based on composite endpoints. We consider this here in the context of multivariate models for time to event data in which copula functions link marginal distributions with a proportional hazards structure. We then examine the asymptotic and empirical properties of the estimator of treatment effect arising from a Cox regression model for the time to the first event. We point out that even when the treatment effect is the same for the component events, the limiting value of the estimator based on the composite endpoint is usually inconsistent for this common value. We find that in this context the limiting value is determined by the degree of association between the events, the stochastic ordering of events, and the censoring distribution. Within the framework adopted, marginal methods for the analysis of multivariate failure time data yield consistent estimators of treatment effect and are therefore preferred. We illustrate the methods by application to a recent asthma study. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:22736519

Body Mass Index, Nutrient Intakes, Health Behaviours and Nutrition Knowledge: A Quantile Regression Application in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Shih-Neng; Tseng, Jauling

2010-01-01

Objective: To assess various marginal effects of nutrient intakes, health behaviours and nutrition knowledge on the entire distribution of body mass index (BMI) across individuals. Design: Quantitative and distributional study. Setting: Taiwan. Methods: This study applies Becker's (1965) model of health production to construct an individual's BMI…

Bayesian generalized least squares regression with application to log Pearson type 3 regional skew estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reis, D. S.; Stedinger, J. R.; Martins, E. S.

2005-10-01

This paper develops a Bayesian approach to analysis of a generalized least squares (GLS) regression model for regional analyses of hydrologic data. The new approach allows computation of the posterior distributions of the parameters and the model error variance using a quasi-analytic approach. Two regional skew estimation studies illustrate the value of the Bayesian GLS approach for regional statistical analysis of a shape parameter and demonstrate that regional skew models can be relatively precise with effective record lengths in excess of 60 years. With Bayesian GLS the marginal posterior distribution of the model error variance and the corresponding mean and variance of the parameters can be computed directly, thereby providing a simple but important extension of the regional GLS regression procedures popularized by Tasker and Stedinger (1989), which is sensitive to the likely values of the model error variance when it is small relative to the sampling error in the at-site estimator.

Fast Identification of Biological Pathways Associated with a Quantitative Trait Using Group Lasso with Overlaps

PubMed Central

Silver, Matt; Montana, Giovanni

2012-01-01

Where causal SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) tend to accumulate within biological pathways, the incorporation of prior pathways information into a statistical model is expected to increase the power to detect true associations in a genetic association study. Most existing pathways-based methods rely on marginal SNP statistics and do not fully exploit the dependence patterns among SNPs within pathways. We use a sparse regression model, with SNPs grouped into pathways, to identify causal pathways associated with a quantitative trait. Notable features of our “pathways group lasso with adaptive weights” (P-GLAW) algorithm include the incorporation of all pathways in a single regression model, an adaptive pathway weighting procedure that accounts for factors biasing pathway selection, and the use of a bootstrap sampling procedure for the ranking of important pathways. P-GLAW takes account of the presence of overlapping pathways and uses a novel combination of techniques to optimise model estimation, making it fast to run, even on whole genome datasets. In a comparison study with an alternative pathways method based on univariate SNP statistics, our method demonstrates high sensitivity and specificity for the detection of important pathways, showing the greatest relative gains in performance where marginal SNP effect sizes are small. PMID:22499682

Maximum Entropy Discrimination Poisson Regression for Software Reliability Modeling.

PubMed

Chatzis, Sotirios P; Andreou, Andreas S

2015-11-01

Reliably predicting software defects is one of the most significant tasks in software engineering. Two of the major components of modern software reliability modeling approaches are: 1) extraction of salient features for software system representation, based on appropriately designed software metrics and 2) development of intricate regression models for count data, to allow effective software reliability data modeling and prediction. Surprisingly, research in the latter frontier of count data regression modeling has been rather limited. More specifically, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made the Bayesian approaches appear unattractive, and thus underdeveloped in the context of software reliability modeling. In this paper, we try to address these issues by introducing a novel Bayesian regression model for count data, based on the concept of max-margin data modeling, effected in the context of a fully Bayesian model treatment with simple and efficient posterior distribution updates. Our novel approach yields a more discriminative learning technique, making more effective use of our training data during model inference. In addition, it allows of better handling uncertainty in the modeled data, which can be a significant problem when the training data are limited. We derive elegant inference algorithms for our model under the mean-field paradigm and exhibit its effectiveness using the publicly available benchmark data sets.

Logistic regression analysis of conventional ultrasonography, strain elastosonography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound characteristics for the differentiation of benign and malignant thyroid nodules

PubMed Central

Deng, Yingyuan; Wang, Tianfu; Chen, Siping; Liu, Weixiang

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to screen the significant sonographic features by logistic regression analysis and fit a model to diagnose thyroid nodules. A total of 525 pathological thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed. All the nodules underwent conventional ultrasonography (US), strain elastosonography (SE), and contrast -enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). Those nodules’ 12 suspicious sonographic features were used to assess thyroid nodules. The significant features of diagnosing thyroid nodules were picked out by logistic regression analysis. All variables that were statistically related to diagnosis of thyroid nodules, at a level of p < 0.05 were embodied in a logistic regression analysis model. The significant features in the logistic regression model of diagnosing thyroid nodules were calcification, suspected cervical lymph node metastasis, hypoenhancement pattern, margin, shape, vascularity, posterior acoustic, echogenicity, and elastography score. According to the results of logistic regression analysis, the formula that could predict whether or not thyroid nodules are malignant was established. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was 0.930 and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 83.77%, 89.56%, 87.05%, 86.04%, and 87.79% respectively. PMID:29228030

Logistic regression analysis of conventional ultrasonography, strain elastosonography, and contrast-enhanced ultrasound characteristics for the differentiation of benign and malignant thyroid nodules.

PubMed

Pang, Tiantian; Huang, Leidan; Deng, Yingyuan; Wang, Tianfu; Chen, Siping; Gong, Xuehao; Liu, Weixiang

2017-01-01

The aim of the study is to screen the significant sonographic features by logistic regression analysis and fit a model to diagnose thyroid nodules. A total of 525 pathological thyroid nodules were retrospectively analyzed. All the nodules underwent conventional ultrasonography (US), strain elastosonography (SE), and contrast -enhanced ultrasound (CEUS). Those nodules' 12 suspicious sonographic features were used to assess thyroid nodules. The significant features of diagnosing thyroid nodules were picked out by logistic regression analysis. All variables that were statistically related to diagnosis of thyroid nodules, at a level of p < 0.05 were embodied in a logistic regression analysis model. The significant features in the logistic regression model of diagnosing thyroid nodules were calcification, suspected cervical lymph node metastasis, hypoenhancement pattern, margin, shape, vascularity, posterior acoustic, echogenicity, and elastography score. According to the results of logistic regression analysis, the formula that could predict whether or not thyroid nodules are malignant was established. The area under the receiver operating curve (ROC) was 0.930 and the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 83.77%, 89.56%, 87.05%, 86.04%, and 87.79% respectively.

Exploring the spatially varying innovation capacity of the US counties in the framework of Griliches' knowledge production function: a mixed GWR approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Dongwoo; Dall'erba, Sandy

2016-04-01

Griliches' knowledge production function has been increasingly adopted at the regional level where location-specific conditions drive the spatial differences in knowledge creation dynamics. However, the large majority of such studies rely on a traditional regression approach that assumes spatially homogenous marginal effects of knowledge input factors. This paper extends the authors' previous work (Kang and Dall'erba in Int Reg Sci Rev, 2015. doi: 10.1177/0160017615572888) to investigate the spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects by using nonparametric local modeling approaches such as geographically weighted regression (GWR) and mixed GWR with two distinct samples of the US Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and non-MSA counties. The results indicate a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in the marginal effects of the knowledge input variables, more specifically for the local and distant spillovers of private knowledge measured across MSA counties. On the other hand, local academic knowledge spillovers are found to display spatially homogenous elasticities in both MSA and non-MSA counties. Our results highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each county's innovation capacity and suggest policy implications for regional innovation strategies.

The political economy of farmers’ suicides in India: indebted cash-crop farmers with marginal landholdings explain state-level variation in suicide rates

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background A recent Lancet article reported the first reliable estimates of suicide rates in India. National-level suicide rates are among the highest in the world, but suicide rates vary sharply between states and the causes of these differences are disputed. We test whether differences in the structure of agricultural production explain inter-state variation in suicides rates. This hypothesis is supported by a large number of qualitative studies, which argue that the liberalization of the agricultural sector in the early-1990s led to an agrarian crisis and that consequently farmers with certain socioeconomic characteristics–cash crops cultivators, with marginal landholdings, and debts–are at particular risk of committing suicide. The recent Lancet study, however, contends that there is no evidence to support this hypothesis. Methods We report scatter diagrams and linear regression models that combine the new state-level suicide rate estimates and the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crop cultivation, and indebted farmers. Results When we include all variables in the regression equation there is a significant positive relationship between the percentage of marginal farmers, cash crop production, and indebted farmers, and suicide rates. This model accounts for almost 75% of inter-state variation in suicide rates. If the proportion of marginal farmers, cash crops, or indebted farmers were reduced by 1%, the suicide rate–suicides per 100,000 per year–would fall by 0 · 437, 0 · 518 or 0 · 549 respectively, when all other variables are held constant. Conclusions Even if the Indian state is unable to enact land reforms due to the power of local elites, interventions to stabilize the price of cash crops and relieve indebted farmers may be effective at reducing suicide rates. PMID:24669945

Length of positive surgical margin after radical prostatectomy as a predictor of biochemical recurrence.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Song, Jie; Royce, Cassandra; Al-Ahmadie, Hikmat; Zorn, Kevin; Steinberg, Gary; Zagaja, Gregory; Shalhav, Arieh; Eggener, Scott

2009-07-01

Length and location of positive surgical margins are independent predictors of biochemical recurrence after open radical prostatectomy. We assessed their impact on biochemical recurrence in a large robotic prostatectomy series. Data were collected prospectively from 1,398 men undergoing robotic radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer from 2003 to 2008 at a single institution. The associations of preoperative prostate specific antigen, pathological Gleason score, pathological stage and positive surgical margin parameters (location, length and focality) with biochemical recurrence rate were evaluated. Margin status and length were measured by a single uropathologist. Biochemical recurrence was defined as serum prostate specific antigen greater than 0.1 ng/ml on 2 consecutive tests. Cox regression models were constructed to evaluate predictors of biochemical recurrence. Of 1,398 consecutive patients who underwent robotic prostatectomy positive margins were present in 243 (17%) (11% of pathological T2 and 41% of T3). Preoperative prostate specific antigen, pathological stage, Gleason score, margin status, and margin length as a continuous and categorical variable (less than 1, 1 to 3, more than 3 mm) were independent predictors of biochemical recurrence. Patients with negative margins and those with a positive margin less than 1 mm had similar rates of biochemical recurrence (log rank test p = 0.18). Surgical margin location was not independently associated with biochemical recurrence. Margin status and length are independent predictors of biochemical recurrence following robotic radical prostatectomy. Although longer followup and validation studies are necessary for confirmation, patients with a positive margin less than 1 mm appear to have similar recurrence rates as those with negative margins.

Imaging Analysis of Hepatoblastoma Resectability Across Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

PubMed Central

Murphy, Andrew J.; Ayers, Gregory D.; Hilmes, Melissa A.; Mukherjee, Kaushik; Wilson, Kevin J.; Allen, Wade M.; Fernandez-Pineda, Israel; Shinall, Myrick C.; Zhao, Zhiguo; Furman, Wayne L.; McCarville, Mary Beth; Davidoff, Andrew M.; Lovvorn, Harold N.

2013-01-01

Purpose Hepatoblastomas often require neoadjuvant chemotherapy to facilitate partial hepatectomy, which necessitates freedom of tumor borders from the confluence of hepatic veins (COHV), portal vein bifurcation (PVB), and retrohepatic inferior vena cava (IVC). This study aimed to clarify the effect of incremental neoadjuvant cycles on the AHEP0731 protocol criteria of hepatoblastoma resectability. Methods Hepatoblastoma responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy were analyzed among patients (n=23) treated at two children’s hospitals between 1996 and 2010. Using digital imaging data, ellipsoid and point-based models were created to measure tumor volume regression and respective distances from tumor borders nearest to the COHV, PVB, and IVC. Results Hepatoblastoma volumes regressed with incremental neoadjuvant chemotherapy cycles (p<0.001). Although tumor borders regressed away from the COHV (p=0.008), on average only 1.1mm was gained. No change from tumor borders to the PVB was detected (p=0.102). Distances from tumor borders to the IVC remained stable at one hospital (p=0.612), but increased only 0.15mm every 10 days of therapy at the other (p=0.002). Neoadjuvant chemotherapy induced slightly more tumors to meet the threshold vascular margin of 1cm (baseline to completion): COHV, 11 (47.8%) to 17 (73.9%; p=0.058); PVB, 11 (47.8%) to 15 (65.2%; p=0.157); IVC, 4 (17.4%) to 10 (43.5%; p=0.034). No differences were detected in demographic or disease-specific characteristics between patients who did or did not achieve this 1cm margin after conclusion of chemotherapy. Conclusion Hepatoblastoma volumes regress significantly with increasing neoadjuvant chemotherapy cycles. However, tumors often remain anchored to the major hepatic vasculature, showing marginal improvement in resectability criteria. PMID:23845613

Risk Factors Associated With Circumferential Resection Margin Positivity in Rectal Cancer: A Binational Registry Study.

PubMed

Warrier, Satish K; Kong, Joseph Cherng; Guerra, Glen R; Chittleborough, Timothy J; Naik, Arun; Ramsay, Robert G; Lynch, A Craig; Heriot, Alexander G

2018-04-01

Rectal cancer outcomes have improved with the adoption of a multidisciplinary model of care. However, there is a spectrum of quality when viewed from a national perspective, as highlighted by the Consortium for Optimizing the Treatment of Rectal Cancer data on rectal cancer care in the United States. The aim of this study was to assess and identify predictors of circumferential resection margin involvement for rectal cancer across Australasia. A retrospective study from a prospectively maintained binational colorectal cancer database was interrogated. This study is based on a binational colorectal cancer audit database. Clinical information on all consecutive resected rectal cancer cases recorded in the registry from 2007 to 2016 was retrieved, collated, and analyzed. The primary outcome measure was positive circumferential resection margin, measured as a resection margin ≤1 mm. A total of 3367 patients were included, with 261 (7.5%) having a positive circumferential resection margin. After adjusting for hospital and surgeon volume, hierarchical logistic regression analysis identified a 6-variable model encompassing the independent predictors, including urgent operation, abdominoperineal resection, open technique, low rectal cancer, T3 to T4, and N1 to N2. The accuracy of the model was 92.3%, with an receiver operating characteristic of 0.783 (p < 0.0001). The quantitative risk associated with circumferential resection margin positivity ranged from <1% (no risk factors) to 43% (6 risk factors). This study was limited by the lack of recorded long-term outcomes associated with circumferential resection margin positivity. The rate of circumferential resection margin involvement in patients undergoing rectal cancer resection in Australasia is low and is influenced by a number of factors. Risk stratification of outcome is important with the increasing demand for publicly accessible quality data. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A512.

Meta-analytical synthesis of regression coefficients under different categorization scheme of continuous covariates.

PubMed

Yoneoka, Daisuke; Henmi, Masayuki

2017-11-30

Recently, the number of clinical prediction models sharing the same regression task has increased in the medical literature. However, evidence synthesis methodologies that use the results of these regression models have not been sufficiently studied, particularly in meta-analysis settings where only regression coefficients are available. One of the difficulties lies in the differences between the categorization schemes of continuous covariates across different studies. In general, categorization methods using cutoff values are study specific across available models, even if they focus on the same covariates of interest. Differences in the categorization of covariates could lead to serious bias in the estimated regression coefficients and thus in subsequent syntheses. To tackle this issue, we developed synthesis methods for linear regression models with different categorization schemes of covariates. A 2-step approach to aggregate the regression coefficient estimates is proposed. The first step is to estimate the joint distribution of covariates by introducing a latent sampling distribution, which uses one set of individual participant data to estimate the marginal distribution of covariates with categorization. The second step is to use a nonlinear mixed-effects model with correction terms for the bias due to categorization to estimate the overall regression coefficients. Especially in terms of precision, numerical simulations show that our approach outperforms conventional methods, which only use studies with common covariates or ignore the differences between categorization schemes. The method developed in this study is also applied to a series of WHO epidemiologic studies on white blood cell counts. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Are We Cutting Enough? A Five-Year Audit of Melanoma Excision Margins in the South East of Ireland.

PubMed

Cronin, Catherine Tracy; Allen, Jack; Patterson, Ken; O'Donoghue, Gerrard

2018-01-05

Malignant melanoma is the fifth commonest invasive cancer in Ireland. The British Association of Dermatology (BAD) guidelines are currently the recognized standard for melanoma related surgery. The aim was to examine adherence to BAD guidelines and establish contributing factors resulting in non-adherence to guidelines in a group of melanoma patients in the South East Region of Ireland. A retrospective review of a prospectively maintained melanoma registry of all patients undergoing surgery in the South East Region of Ireland from January 2011 to 2016 was performed. Data were analyzed using SPSS statistical software. Univariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to examine factors associated with not meeting the BAD margin excision guidelines Data with a p < 0.05 was analyzed using a multivariate logistic regression model. 459 patients underwent surgery for invasive cutaneous melanoma. 314 (68.4%) surgeries had excision margins adequately recorded and of these 234(74.5%) fulfilled the BAD guidelines. 267(58.2%) patients (2011-2016 inclusive) qualified for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SNLB) with a cancer staging of pT1b or higher. Of these patients 100(37%) agreed to proceed to a SNLB following informed discussion. 33 had a positive sentinel node. On multivariate analysis inadequate margins were independently associated with tumor thickness 2.01-4.00 mm (p = 0.0001) and >4.00 mm (p = 0.0001) and head and neck location (p < 0.0001). Adherence to BAD guidelines in the South East is good but requires optimization since centralization of melanoma treatment in 2013 to a single specialized center. It is important that Clinicians are fully aware of the implications of not achieving adequate excision margins in surgery. Improvements in melanoma data management is needed to fully evaluate current practices in Ireland.

Selecting risk factors: a comparison of discriminant analysis, logistic regression and Cox's regression model using data from the Tromsø Heart Study.

PubMed

Brenn, T; Arnesen, E

1985-01-01

For comparative evaluation, discriminant analysis, logistic regression and Cox's model were used to select risk factors for total and coronary deaths among 6595 men aged 20-49 followed for 9 years. Groups with mortality between 5 and 93 per 1000 were considered. Discriminant analysis selected variable sets only marginally different from the logistic and Cox methods which always selected the same sets. A time-saving option, offered for both the logistic and Cox selection, showed no advantage compared with discriminant analysis. Analysing more than 3800 subjects, the logistic and Cox methods consumed, respectively, 80 and 10 times more computer time than discriminant analysis. When including the same set of variables in non-stepwise analyses, all methods estimated coefficients that in most cases were almost identical. In conclusion, discriminant analysis is advocated for preliminary or stepwise analysis, otherwise Cox's method should be used.

Simple, Efficient Estimators of Treatment Effects in Randomized Trials Using Generalized Linear Models to Leverage Baseline Variables

PubMed Central

Rosenblum, Michael; van der Laan, Mark J.

2010-01-01

Models, such as logistic regression and Poisson regression models, are often used to estimate treatment effects in randomized trials. These models leverage information in variables collected before randomization, in order to obtain more precise estimates of treatment effects. However, there is the danger that model misspecification will lead to bias. We show that certain easy to compute, model-based estimators are asymptotically unbiased even when the working model used is arbitrarily misspecified. Furthermore, these estimators are locally efficient. As a special case of our main result, we consider a simple Poisson working model containing only main terms; in this case, we prove the maximum likelihood estimate of the coefficient corresponding to the treatment variable is an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the marginal log rate ratio, even when the working model is arbitrarily misspecified. This is the log-linear analog of ANCOVA for linear models. Our results demonstrate one application of targeted maximum likelihood estimation. PMID:20628636

Discrimination, acculturation and other predictors of depression among pregnant Hispanic women.

PubMed

Walker, Janiece L; Ruiz, R Jeanne; Chinn, Juanita J; Marti, Nathan; Ricks, Tiffany N

2012-01-01

The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of socioeconomic status, acculturative stress, discrimination, and marginalization as predictors of depression in pregnant Hispanic women. A prospective observational design was used. Central and Gulf coast areas of Texas in obstetrical offices. A convenience sample of 515 pregnant, low income, low medical risk, and self-identified Hispanic women who were between 22-24 weeks gestation was used to collect data. The predictor variables were socioeconomic status, discrimination, acculturative stress, and marginalization. The outcome variable was depression. Education, frequency of discrimination, age, and Anglo marginality were significant predictors of depressive symptoms in a linear regression model, F (6, 458) = 8.36, P<.0001. Greater frequency of discrimination was the strongest positive predictor of increased depressive symptoms. It is important that health care providers further understand the impact that age and experiences of discrimination throughout the life course have on depressive symptoms during pregnancy.

Development of the Canadian Marginalization Index: a new tool for the study of inequality.

PubMed

Matheson, Flora I; Dunn, James R; Smith, Katherine L W; Moineddin, Rahim; Glazier, Richard H

2012-04-30

Area-based measures of socio-economic status are increasingly used in population health research. Based on previous research and theory, the Canadian Marginalization Index (CAN-Marg) was created to reflect four dimensions of marginalization: residential instability, material deprivation, dependency and ethnic concentration. The objective of this paper was threefold: to describe CAN-Marg; to illustrate its stability across geographic area and time; and to describe its association with health and behavioural problems. CAN-Marg was created at the dissemination area (DA) and census tract level for census years 2001 and 2006, using factor analysis. Descriptions of 18 health and behavioural problems were selected using individual-level data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) 3.1 and 2007/08. CAN-Marg quintiles created at the DA level (2006) were assigned to individual CCHS records. Multilevel logistic regression modeling was conducted to examine associations between marginalization and CCHS health and behavioural problems. The index demonstrated marked stability across time and geographic area. Each of the four dimensions showed strong and significant associations with the selected health and behavioural problems, and these associations differed depending on which of the dimensions of marginalization was examined. CAN-Marg is a census-based, empirically derived and theoretically informed tool designed to reflect a broader conceptualization of Canadian marginalization.

Small-target leak detection for a closed vessel via infrared image sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Ling; Yang, Hongjiu

2017-03-01

This paper focus on a leak diagnosis and localization method based on infrared image sequences. Some problems on high probability of false warning and negative affect for marginal information are solved by leak detection. An experimental model is established for leak diagnosis and localization on infrared image sequences. The differential background prediction is presented to eliminate the negative affect of marginal information on test vessel based on a kernel regression method. A pipeline filter based on layering voting is designed to reduce probability of leak point false warning. A synthesize leak diagnosis and localization algorithm is proposed based on infrared image sequences. The effectiveness and potential are shown for developed techniques through experimental results.

HIGHLIGHTING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACHES THROUGH AN APPLICATION TO ASSESS MEDICATION ADHERENCE

PubMed Central

BORAH, BIJAN J.; BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:23616446

Positive surgical margins after robotic assisted radical prostatectomy: a multi-institutional study.

PubMed

Patel, Vipul R; Coelho, Rafael F; Rocco, Bernardo; Orvieto, Marcelo; Sivaraman, Ananthakrishnan; Palmer, Kenneth J; Kameh, Darien; Santoro, Luigi; Coughlin, Geoff D; Liss, Michael; Jeong, Wooju; Malcolm, John; Stern, Joshua M; Sharma, Saurabh; Zorn, Kevin C; Shikanov, Sergey; Shalhav, Arieh L; Zagaja, Gregory P; Ahlering, Thomas E; Rha, Koon H; Albala, David M; Fabrizio, Michael D; Lee, David I; Chauhan, Sanket

2011-08-01

Positive surgical margins are an independent predictive factor for biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy. We analyzed the incidence of and associative factors for positive surgical margins in a multi-institutional series of 8,418 robotic assisted radical prostatectomies. We analyzed the records of 8,418 patients who underwent robotic assisted radical prostatectomy at 7 institutions. Of the patients 323 had missing data on margin status. Positive surgical margins were categorized into 4 groups, including apex, bladder neck, posterolateral and multifocal. The records of 6,169 patients were available for multivariate analysis. The variables entered into the logistic regression models were age, body mass index, preoperative prostate specific antigen, biopsy Gleason score, prostate weight and pathological stage. A second model was built to identify predictive factors for positive surgical margins in the subset of patients with organ confined disease (pT2). The overall positive surgical margin rate was 15.7% (1,272 of 8,095 patients). The positive surgical margin rate for pT2 and pT3 disease was 9.45% and 37.2%, respectively. On multivariate analysis pathological stage (pT2 vs pT3 OR 4.588, p<0.001) and preoperative prostate specific antigen (4 or less vs greater than 10 ng/ml OR 2.918, p<0.001) were the most important independent predictive factors for positive surgical margins after robotic assisted radical prostatectomy. Increasing prostate weight was associated with a lower risk of positive surgical margins after robotic assisted radical prostatectomy (OR 0.984, p<0.001) and a higher body mass index was associated with a higher risk of positive surgical margins (OR 1.032, p<0.001). For organ confined disease preoperative prostate specific antigen was the most important factor that independently correlated with positive surgical margins (4 or less vs greater than 10 ng/ml OR 3.8, p<0.001). The prostatic apex followed by a posterolateral site was the most common location of positive surgical margins after robotic assisted radical prostatectomy. Factors that correlated with cancer aggressiveness, such as pathological stage and preoperative prostate specific antigen, were the most important factors independently associated with an increased risk of positive surgical margins after robotic assisted radical prostatectomy. Copyright © 2011 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of young age, positive margins, and triple negative status on disease recurrence after breast conserving therapy

PubMed Central

Sakulchairungreung, Bundit; Chirappapha, Prakasit; Suvikapakornkul, Ronnarat; Wasuthit, Yodying; Sukarayothin, Thongchai; Leesombatpaiboon, Montchai; Kongdan, Youwanush

2016-01-01

Background To determine the risk factors for disease recurrence after breast conserving therapy (BCT) for breast cancer in a group of South-East Asian women. Methods Medical and pathological records of women who underwent BCT during the 10-year period from 2001 to 2010 were reviewed. Data collected included age ≤35 years defined as the young, type of operation, pathological data, hormonal receptor (HR) status, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER-2) expression status, and surgical margin status. Data on adjuvant therapy were also collected. Main outcomes were overall breast cancer recurrence, locoregional, and distant recurrence. Risk factors for each type of recurrence were identified using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results There were 294 BCTs in 290 patients during the study period. The overwhelming majority (91%) had early stage (stages I-II) breast cancers. Young age patients constituted 9% of all patients, and triple negative cancers (HR negative and HER-2 negative) were seen in 19%. Involved margins on initial surgery were found in 9% of cases, and after reoperation, only 2% had involved margins. After a median follow-up of 50 months, and a maximum follow-up of 135 months, there were 30 recurrences and 6 deaths. Of the 30 recurrences, 19 included locoregional, 20 included distant, and 13 had in-breast recurrences. The disease-free survival at 10 years was 82.5% (95% CI: 74.8% to 88.1%), and the cumulative in-breast recurrence was 9.3% (95% CI: 4.9% to 17.2%) at 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression analysis revealed that young age, larger tumor size, involved margins, and no breast irradiation were associated with higher risk of locoregional recurrence. Triple negative status, larger tumor size, more positive nodes, and involved margins were associated with higher risk of distant recurrence. Conclusions We found young age to be a significant prognosticator of locoregional recurrence, and triple negative status of distant recurrence. Involved surgical margin status was associated with both recurrences. Tumor size was associated with both recurrences, and axillary lymph node metastasis was associated with distant recurrence. PMID:26855904

Intermediate and advanced topics in multilevel logistic regression analysis

PubMed Central

Merlo, Juan

2017-01-01

Multilevel data occur frequently in health services, population and public health, and epidemiologic research. In such research, binary outcomes are common. Multilevel logistic regression models allow one to account for the clustering of subjects within clusters of higher‐level units when estimating the effect of subject and cluster characteristics on subject outcomes. A search of the PubMed database demonstrated that the use of multilevel or hierarchical regression models is increasing rapidly. However, our impression is that many analysts simply use multilevel regression models to account for the nuisance of within‐cluster homogeneity that is induced by clustering. In this article, we describe a suite of analyses that can complement the fitting of multilevel logistic regression models. These ancillary analyses permit analysts to estimate the marginal or population‐average effect of covariates measured at the subject and cluster level, in contrast to the within‐cluster or cluster‐specific effects arising from the original multilevel logistic regression model. We describe the interval odds ratio and the proportion of opposed odds ratios, which are summary measures of effect for cluster‐level covariates. We describe the variance partition coefficient and the median odds ratio which are measures of components of variance and heterogeneity in outcomes. These measures allow one to quantify the magnitude of the general contextual effect. We describe an R 2 measure that allows analysts to quantify the proportion of variation explained by different multilevel logistic regression models. We illustrate the application and interpretation of these measures by analyzing mortality in patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28543517

Intermediate and advanced topics in multilevel logistic regression analysis.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C; Merlo, Juan

2017-09-10

Multilevel data occur frequently in health services, population and public health, and epidemiologic research. In such research, binary outcomes are common. Multilevel logistic regression models allow one to account for the clustering of subjects within clusters of higher-level units when estimating the effect of subject and cluster characteristics on subject outcomes. A search of the PubMed database demonstrated that the use of multilevel or hierarchical regression models is increasing rapidly. However, our impression is that many analysts simply use multilevel regression models to account for the nuisance of within-cluster homogeneity that is induced by clustering. In this article, we describe a suite of analyses that can complement the fitting of multilevel logistic regression models. These ancillary analyses permit analysts to estimate the marginal or population-average effect of covariates measured at the subject and cluster level, in contrast to the within-cluster or cluster-specific effects arising from the original multilevel logistic regression model. We describe the interval odds ratio and the proportion of opposed odds ratios, which are summary measures of effect for cluster-level covariates. We describe the variance partition coefficient and the median odds ratio which are measures of components of variance and heterogeneity in outcomes. These measures allow one to quantify the magnitude of the general contextual effect. We describe an R 2 measure that allows analysts to quantify the proportion of variation explained by different multilevel logistic regression models. We illustrate the application and interpretation of these measures by analyzing mortality in patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Retrospective cohort study of prognostic factors in patients with oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Carrillo, José F; Carrillo, Liliana C; Cano, Ana; Ramirez-Ortega, Margarita C; Chanona, Jorge G; Avilés, Alejandro; Herrera-Goepfert, Roberto; Corona-Rivera, Jaime; Ochoa-Carrillo, Francisco J; Oñate-Ocaña, Luis F

2016-04-01

Prognostic factors in oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are debated. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of prognostic factors with oncologic outcomes. Patients with oral cavity and oropharyngeal SCC treated from 1997 to 2012 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Associations of prognostic factors with locoregional recurrence (LRR) or overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the logistic regression and the Cox models. Six hundred thirty-four patients were included in this study; tumor size, surgical margins, and N classification were associated with LRR (p < .0001); considering histopathology: perineural invasion, lymphocytic infiltration, infiltrative borders, and N classification were significant determinants of LRR. Tumor size, N classification, alcoholism, and surgical margins were associated with OS (p < .0001); considering pathologic prognostic factors, perivascular invasion, islands borders, and surgical margins were independently associated with OS (p < .0001). Surgical margins, perineural and perivascular invasion, lymphocytic infiltration, and infiltrative patterns of tumor invasion are significant prognostic factors in oral cavity and oropharyngeal SCC. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evolution of Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, Nevada

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morrow, J.R.; Sandberg, C.A.

2008-01-01

The north-trending, 550-km-long Nevada segment of the Devonian carbonate-shelf margin, which fringed western North America, evidences the complex interaction of paleotectonics, eustasy, biotic changes, and bolide impact-related influences. Margin reconstruction is complicated by mid-Paleozoic to Paleogene compressional tectonics and younger extensional and strike-slip faulting. Reports published during the past three decades identify 12 important events that influenced development of shelf-margin settings; in chronological order, these are: (1) Early Devonian inheritance of Silurian stable shelf inargin, (2) formation of Early to early Middle 'Devonian shelf-margin basins, (3) propradation of later Middle Devonian shelf margin, (4) late Middle Devonian Taghanic ondap and continuing long-term Frasnian transgression, (5) initiation of latest Middle Devonian to early Frasnian proto-Antler orogenic forebulge, (6) mid-Frasnian Alamo Impact, (7) accelerated development of proto-Antler forebulge and backbulge Pilot basin, (8) global late Frasnian sentichatovae sea-level rise, (9) end-Frasnian sea-level fluctuations and ensuing mass extinction, (10) long-term Famennian regression and continept-wide erosion, (11) late Famennian emergence: of Ahtler orogenic highlands, and (12) end-Devonian eustatic sea-level fall. Although of considerable value for understanding facies relationships and geometries, existing standard carbonate platform-margin models developed for passive settings else-where do not adequately describe the diverse depositional and, structural settings along the Nevada Devonian platform margin. Recent structural and geochemical studies suggest that the Early to Middle Devonian-shelf-margin basins may have been fault-bound and controlled by inherited Precambrian structure. Subsequently, the migrating latest Middle to Late Devonian Antler orogenic forebulge exerted a dominant control on shelf-margin position, morphology, and sedimentation. ??Geological Society of America.

Screening and clustering of sparse regressions with finite non-Gaussian mixtures.

PubMed

Zhang, Jian

2017-06-01

This article proposes a method to address the problem that can arise when covariates in a regression setting are not Gaussian, which may give rise to approximately mixture-distributed errors, or when a true mixture of regressions produced the data. The method begins with non-Gaussian mixture-based marginal variable screening, followed by fitting a full but relatively smaller mixture regression model to the selected data with help of a new penalization scheme. Under certain regularity conditions, the new screening procedure is shown to possess a sure screening property even when the population is heterogeneous. We further prove that there exists an elbow point in the associated scree plot which results in a consistent estimator of the set of active covariates in the model. By simulations, we demonstrate that the new procedure can substantially improve the performance of the existing procedures in the content of variable screening and data clustering. By applying the proposed procedure to motif data analysis in molecular biology, we demonstrate that the new method holds promise in practice. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Local linear estimation of concordance probability with application to covariate effects models on association for bivariate failure-time data.

PubMed

Ding, Aidong Adam; Hsieh, Jin-Jian; Wang, Weijing

2015-01-01

Bivariate survival analysis has wide applications. In the presence of covariates, most literature focuses on studying their effects on the marginal distributions. However covariates can also affect the association between the two variables. In this article we consider the latter issue by proposing a nonstandard local linear estimator for the concordance probability as a function of covariates. Under the Clayton copula, the conditional concordance probability has a simple one-to-one correspondence with the copula parameter for different data structures including those subject to independent or dependent censoring and dependent truncation. The proposed method can be used to study how covariates affect the Clayton association parameter without specifying marginal regression models. Asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived and their finite-sample performances are examined via simulations. Finally, for illustration, we apply the proposed method to analyze a bone marrow transplant data set.

Environmental determinants of radiolarian assemblages in the western Pacific since the last deglaciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández-Almeida, I.; Cortese, G.; Yu, P.-S.; Chen, M.-T.; Kucera, M.

2017-08-01

Radiolarians are a very diverse microzooplanktonic group, often distributed in regionally restricted assemblages and responding to specific environmental factors. These properties of radiolarian assemblages make the group more conducive for the development and application of basin-wide ecological models. Here we use a new surface sediment data set from the western Pacific to demonstrate that ecological patterns derived from basin-wide open-ocean data sets cannot be transferred on semirestricted marginal seas. The data set consists of 160 surface sediment samples from three tropical-subtropical regions (East China Sea, South China Sea, and western Pacific), combining 54 new assemblage counts with taxonomically harmonized data from previous studies. Multivariate statistical analyses indicate that winter sea surface temperature at 10 m depth (SSTw) was the most significant environmental variable affecting the composition of radiolarian assemblages, allowing the development of an optimal calibration model (Locally Weighted-Weighted Averaging regression inverse deshrinking, R2cv = 0.88, root-mean-square error of prediction = 1.6°C). The dominant effect of SSTw on radiolarian assemblage composition in the western Pacific is attributed to the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), which is particularly strong in the marginal seas. To test the applicability of the calibration model on fossil radiolarian assemblages from the marginal seas, the calibration model was applied to two downcore records from the Okinawa Trough, covering the last 18 ka. We observe that these assemblages find most appropriate analogs among modern samples from the marginal basins (East China Sea and South China Sea). Downcore temperature reconstructions at both sites show similarities to known regional SST reconstructions, providing proof of concept for the new radiolarian-based SSTw calibration model.

Multiple Ordinal Regression by Maximizing the Sum of Margins

PubMed Central

Hamsici, Onur C.; Martinez, Aleix M.

2016-01-01

Human preferences are usually measured using ordinal variables. A system whose goal is to estimate the preferences of humans and their underlying decision mechanisms requires to learn the ordering of any given sample set. We consider the solution of this ordinal regression problem using a Support Vector Machine algorithm. Specifically, the goal is to learn a set of classifiers with common direction vectors and different biases correctly separating the ordered classes. Current algorithms are either required to solve a quadratic optimization problem, which is computationally expensive, or are based on maximizing the minimum margin (i.e., a fixed margin strategy) between a set of hyperplanes, which biases the solution to the closest margin. Another drawback of these strategies is that they are limited to order the classes using a single ranking variable (e.g., perceived length). In this paper, we define a multiple ordinal regression algorithm based on maximizing the sum of the margins between every consecutive class with respect to one or more rankings (e.g., perceived length and weight). We provide derivations of an efficient, easy-to-implement iterative solution using a Sequential Minimal Optimization procedure. We demonstrate the accuracy of our solutions in several datasets. In addition, we provide a key application of our algorithms in estimating human subjects’ ordinal classification of attribute associations to object categories. We show that these ordinal associations perform better than the binary one typically employed in the literature. PMID:26529784

Neural Network and Regression Soft Model Extended for PAX-300 Aircraft Engine

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patnaik, Surya N.; Hopkins, Dale A.

2002-01-01

In fiscal year 2001, the neural network and regression capabilities of NASA Glenn Research Center's COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were extended to generate approximate models for the PAX-300 aircraft engine. The analytical model of the engine is defined through nine variables: the fan efficiency factor, the low pressure of the compressor, the high pressure of the compressor, the high pressure of the turbine, the low pressure of the turbine, the operating pressure, and three critical temperatures (T(sub 4), T(sub vane), and T(sub metal)). Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) calculations of the specific fuel consumption (TSFC), as a function of the variables can become time consuming, and numerical instabilities can occur during these design calculations. "Soft" models can alleviate both deficiencies. These approximate models are generated from a set of high-fidelity input-output pairs obtained from the NPSS code and a design of the experiment strategy. A neural network and a regression model with 45 weight factors were trained for the input/output pairs. Then, the trained models were validated through a comparison with the original NPSS code. Comparisons of TSFC versus the operating pressure and of TSFC versus the three temperatures (T(sub 4), T(sub vane), and T(sub metal)) are depicted in the figures. The overall performance was satisfactory for both the regression and the neural network model. The regression model required fewer calculations than the neural network model, and it produced marginally superior results. Training the approximate methods is time consuming. Once trained, the approximate methods generated the solution with only a trivial computational effort, reducing the solution time from hours to less than a minute.

Suicide Risk Among College Student. The Intersection of Sexual Orientation and Race.

PubMed

Shadick, Richard; Backus Dagirmanjian, Faedra; Barbot, Baptiste

2015-01-01

Research on young adults in the general population has identified a relationship between sexual minority identification and risk for suicide. Differential rates of suicidal ideation and attempts have also been found across racial and ethnic groups. This study examined risk for suicide among university students, based on membership in one or more marginalized groups (sexual minority and racial minority identification). Data were collected from first-year college students (N = 4,345) at an urban university. Structural equation modeling was employed to model a suicidality construct, based on which a "risk for suicide" category system was derived. Chi-square and logistic regression analyses were then conducted to estimate the relationship between the background variables of interest and suicide risk. Students who identified as lesbian, gay, or bisexual (LGB) were associated with higher suicide risk than their heterosexual peers. Students of color were slightly less at risk than their heterosexual peers. However, LGB students of color were associated with elevated suicide risk relative to heterosexual peers. Results indicate that belonging to multiple marginalized groups may increase one's risk for suicide, though these effects are not simply additive. Findings highlight the complexity of the intersection between marginalized identities and suicidality.

Healthy Eating and Leisure-Time Activity: Cross-Sectional Analysis of that Role of Work Environments in the U.S.

PubMed

Williams, Jessica A R; Arcaya, Mariana; Subramanian, S V

2017-11-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate relationships between work context and two health behaviors, healthy eating and leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), in U.S. adults. Using data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and Occupational Information Network (N = 14,863), we estimated a regression model to predict the marginal and joint probabilities of healthy eating and adhering to recommended exercise guidelines. Decision-making freedom was positively related to healthy eating and both behaviors jointly. Higher physical load was associated with a lower marginal probability of LTPA, healthy eating, and both behaviors jointly. Smoke and vapor exposures were negatively related to healthy eating and both behaviors. Chemical exposure was positively related to LTPA and both behaviors. Characteristics associated with marginal probabilities were not always predictive of joint outcomes. On the basis of nationwide occupation-specific evidence, workplace characteristics are important for healthy eating and LTPA.

Discrimination, Acculturation and Other Predictors of Depression among Pregnant Hispanic Women

PubMed Central

Walker, Janiece L.; Ruiz, R. Jeanne; Chinn, Juanita J.; Marti, Nathan; Ricks, Tiffany N.

2012-01-01

Objective The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of socioeconomic status, acculturative stress, discrimination, and marginalization as predictors of depression in pregnant Hispanic women. Design A prospective observational design was used. Setting Central and Gulf coast areas of Texas in obstetrical offices. Participants A convenience sample of 515 pregnant, low income, low medical risk, and self-identified Hispanic women who were between 22–24 weeks gestation was used to collect data. Measures The predictor variables were socioeconomic status, discrimination, acculturative stress, and marginalization. The outcome variable was depression. Results Education, frequency of discrimination, age, and Anglo marginality were significant predictors of depressive symptoms in a linear regression model, F (6, 458) = 8.36, P<.0001. Greater frequency of discrimination was the strongest positive predictor of increased depressive symptoms. Conclusions It is important that health care providers further understand the impact that age and experiences of discrimination throughout the life course have on depressive symptoms during pregnancy. PMID:23140083

celerite: Scalable 1D Gaussian Processes in C++, Python, and Julia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Agol, Eric; Ambikasaran, Sivaram; Angus, Ruth

2017-09-01

celerite provides fast and scalable Gaussian Process (GP) Regression in one dimension and is implemented in C++, Python, and Julia. The celerite API is designed to be familiar to users of george and, like george, celerite is designed to efficiently evaluate the marginalized likelihood of a dataset under a GP model. This is then be used alongside a non-linear optimization or posterior inference library for the best results.

Highlighting differences between conditional and unconditional quantile regression approaches through an application to assess medication adherence.

PubMed

Borah, Bijan J; Basu, Anirban

2013-09-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Marginal regression approach for additive hazards models with clustered current status data.

PubMed

Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan

2014-01-15

Current status data arise naturally from tumorigenicity experiments, epidemiology studies, biomedicine, econometrics and demographic and sociology studies. Moreover, clustered current status data may occur with animals from the same litter in tumorigenicity experiments or with subjects from the same family in epidemiology studies. Because the only information extracted from current status data is whether the survival times are before or after the monitoring or censoring times, the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of survival function converges at a rate of n(1/3) to a complicated limiting distribution. Hence, semiparametric regression models such as the additive hazards model have been extended for independent current status data to derive the test statistics, whose distributions converge at a rate of n(1/2) , for testing the regression parameters. However, a straightforward application of these statistical methods to clustered current status data is not appropriate because intracluster correlation needs to be taken into account. Therefore, this paper proposes two estimating functions for estimating the parameters in the additive hazards model for clustered current status data. The comparative results from simulation studies are presented, and the application of the proposed estimating functions to one real data set is illustrated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Image interpolation via regularized local linear regression.

PubMed

Liu, Xianming; Zhao, Debin; Xiong, Ruiqin; Ma, Siwei; Gao, Wen; Sun, Huifang

2011-12-01

The linear regression model is a very attractive tool to design effective image interpolation schemes. Some regression-based image interpolation algorithms have been proposed in the literature, in which the objective functions are optimized by ordinary least squares (OLS). However, it is shown that interpolation with OLS may have some undesirable properties from a robustness point of view: even small amounts of outliers can dramatically affect the estimates. To address these issues, in this paper we propose a novel image interpolation algorithm based on regularized local linear regression (RLLR). Starting with the linear regression model where we replace the OLS error norm with the moving least squares (MLS) error norm leads to a robust estimator of local image structure. To keep the solution stable and avoid overfitting, we incorporate the l(2)-norm as the estimator complexity penalty. Moreover, motivated by recent progress on manifold-based semi-supervised learning, we explicitly consider the intrinsic manifold structure by making use of both measured and unmeasured data points. Specifically, our framework incorporates the geometric structure of the marginal probability distribution induced by unmeasured samples as an additional local smoothness preserving constraint. The optimal model parameters can be obtained with a closed-form solution by solving a convex optimization problem. Experimental results on benchmark test images demonstrate that the proposed method achieves very competitive performance with the state-of-the-art interpolation algorithms, especially in image edge structure preservation. © 2011 IEEE

Robust colour calibration of an imaging system using a colour space transform and advanced regression modelling.

PubMed

Jackman, Patrick; Sun, Da-Wen; Elmasry, Gamal

2012-08-01

A new algorithm for the conversion of device dependent RGB colour data into device independent L*a*b* colour data without introducing noticeable error has been developed. By combining a linear colour space transform and advanced multiple regression methodologies it was possible to predict L*a*b* colour data with less than 2.2 colour units of error (CIE 1976). By transforming the red, green and blue colour components into new variables that better reflect the structure of the L*a*b* colour space, a low colour calibration error was immediately achieved (ΔE(CAL) = 14.1). Application of a range of regression models on the data further reduced the colour calibration error substantially (multilinear regression ΔE(CAL) = 5.4; response surface ΔE(CAL) = 2.9; PLSR ΔE(CAL) = 2.6; LASSO regression ΔE(CAL) = 2.1). Only the PLSR models deteriorated substantially under cross validation. The algorithm is adaptable and can be easily recalibrated to any working computer vision system. The algorithm was tested on a typical working laboratory computer vision system and delivered only a very marginal loss of colour information ΔE(CAL) = 2.35. Colour features derived on this system were able to safely discriminate between three classes of ham with 100% correct classification whereas colour features measured on a conventional colourimeter were not. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marginal regression analysis of recurrent events with coarsened censoring times.

PubMed

Hu, X Joan; Rosychuk, Rhonda J

2016-12-01

Motivated by an ongoing pediatric mental health care (PMHC) study, this article presents weakly structured methods for analyzing doubly censored recurrent event data where only coarsened information on censoring is available. The study extracted administrative records of emergency department visits from provincial health administrative databases. The available information of each individual subject is limited to a subject-specific time window determined up to concealed data. To evaluate time-dependent effect of exposures, we adapt the local linear estimation with right censored survival times under the Cox regression model with time-varying coefficients (cf. Cai and Sun, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 2003, 30, 93-111). We establish the pointwise consistency and asymptotic normality of the regression parameter estimator, and examine its performance by simulation. The PMHC study illustrates the proposed approach throughout the article. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

Efficient parameter estimation in longitudinal data analysis using a hybrid GEE method.

PubMed

Leung, Denis H Y; Wang, You-Gan; Zhu, Min

2009-07-01

The method of generalized estimating equations (GEEs) provides consistent estimates of the regression parameters in a marginal regression model for longitudinal data, even when the working correlation model is misspecified (Liang and Zeger, 1986). However, the efficiency of a GEE estimate can be seriously affected by the choice of the working correlation model. This study addresses this problem by proposing a hybrid method that combines multiple GEEs based on different working correlation models, using the empirical likelihood method (Qin and Lawless, 1994). Analyses show that this hybrid method is more efficient than a GEE using a misspecified working correlation model. Furthermore, if one of the working correlation structures correctly models the within-subject correlations, then this hybrid method provides the most efficient parameter estimates. In simulations, the hybrid method's finite-sample performance is superior to a GEE under any of the commonly used working correlation models and is almost fully efficient in all scenarios studied. The hybrid method is illustrated using data from a longitudinal study of the respiratory infection rates in 275 Indonesian children.

Analyzing big data with the hybrid interval regression methods.

PubMed

Huang, Chia-Hui; Yang, Keng-Chieh; Kao, Han-Ying

2014-01-01

Big data is a new trend at present, forcing the significant impacts on information technologies. In big data applications, one of the most concerned issues is dealing with large-scale data sets that often require computation resources provided by public cloud services. How to analyze big data efficiently becomes a big challenge. In this paper, we collaborate interval regression with the smooth support vector machine (SSVM) to analyze big data. Recently, the smooth support vector machine (SSVM) was proposed as an alternative of the standard SVM that has been proved more efficient than the traditional SVM in processing large-scale data. In addition the soft margin method is proposed to modify the excursion of separation margin and to be effective in the gray zone that the distribution of data becomes hard to be described and the separation margin between classes.

Analyzing Big Data with the Hybrid Interval Regression Methods

PubMed Central

Kao, Han-Ying

2014-01-01

Big data is a new trend at present, forcing the significant impacts on information technologies. In big data applications, one of the most concerned issues is dealing with large-scale data sets that often require computation resources provided by public cloud services. How to analyze big data efficiently becomes a big challenge. In this paper, we collaborate interval regression with the smooth support vector machine (SSVM) to analyze big data. Recently, the smooth support vector machine (SSVM) was proposed as an alternative of the standard SVM that has been proved more efficient than the traditional SVM in processing large-scale data. In addition the soft margin method is proposed to modify the excursion of separation margin and to be effective in the gray zone that the distribution of data becomes hard to be described and the separation margin between classes. PMID:25143968

Comparison of modeling methods to predict the spatial distribution of deep-sea coral and sponge in the Gulf of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rooper, Christopher N.; Zimmermann, Mark; Prescott, Megan M.

2017-08-01

Deep-sea coral and sponge ecosystems are widespread throughout most of Alaska's marine waters, and are associated with many different species of fishes and invertebrates. These ecosystems are vulnerable to the effects of commercial fishing activities and climate change. We compared four commonly used species distribution models (general linear models, generalized additive models, boosted regression trees and random forest models) and an ensemble model to predict the presence or absence and abundance of six groups of benthic invertebrate taxa in the Gulf of Alaska. All four model types performed adequately on training data for predicting presence and absence, with regression forest models having the best overall performance measured by the area under the receiver-operating-curve (AUC). The models also performed well on the test data for presence and absence with average AUCs ranging from 0.66 to 0.82. For the test data, ensemble models performed the best. For abundance data, there was an obvious demarcation in performance between the two regression-based methods (general linear models and generalized additive models), and the tree-based models. The boosted regression tree and random forest models out-performed the other models by a wide margin on both the training and testing data. However, there was a significant drop-off in performance for all models of invertebrate abundance ( 50%) when moving from the training data to the testing data. Ensemble model performance was between the tree-based and regression-based methods. The maps of predictions from the models for both presence and abundance agreed very well across model types, with an increase in variability in predictions for the abundance data. We conclude that where data conforms well to the modeled distribution (such as the presence-absence data and binomial distribution in this study), the four types of models will provide similar results, although the regression-type models may be more consistent with biological theory. For data with highly zero-inflated distributions and non-normal distributions such as the abundance data from this study, the tree-based methods performed better. Ensemble models that averaged predictions across the four model types, performed better than the GLM or GAM models but slightly poorer than the tree-based methods, suggesting ensemble models might be more robust to overfitting than tree methods, while mitigating some of the disadvantages in predictive performance of regression methods.

Margin to tumor thickness ratio - A predictor of local recurrence and survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Heiduschka, Gregor; Virk, Sohaib A; Palme, Carsten E; Ch'ng, Sydney; Elliot, Michael; Gupta, Ruta; Clark, Jonathan

2016-04-01

To assess whether small oral squamous cell carcinomas (OSCC) require the same margin clearance as large tumors. We evaluated the association between the ratio of the closest margin to tumor size (MSR) and tumor thickness (MTR) with local control and survival. The clinicopathologic and follow up data were obtained for 501 OSCC patients who had surgical resection with curative intent at our institution. MTR and MSR were computed and their associations with local control and survival were assessed using multivariable Cox-regression model. Survival curves were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. MTR was a better predictor of disease control than MSR. MTR was a predictor of local failure (p=0.033) and disease specific death (p=0.038) after adjusting for perineural invasion, lymphovascular involvement, nodal status, and radiotherapy. A threshold MTR value of 0.3 was identified, above which the risk of local recurrence was low. The ratio of margin to tumor thickness was an independent predictor for local recurrence and disease specific death in this cohort. A MTR>0.3 can serve as a useful tool for adjuvant therapy planning as it combines tumor thickness and margin clearance, two well established prognostic factors. The minimum safe margin can be calculated by multiplying the tumor thickness by 0.3. Further prospective studies in other institutions are warranted to confirm the prognostic utility of MTR and assess the generalizability of our threshold values. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Scope of Sexual, Physical, and Psychological Abuse in a Bedouin-Arab Community of Female Adolescents: The Interplay of Racism, Urbanization, Polygamy, Family Honor, and the Social Marginalization of Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elbedour, Salman; Abu-Bader, Soleman; Onwuegbuzie, Anthony J.; Abu-Rabia, Aref; El-Aassam, Salman

2006-01-01

Objectives: This is an exploratory study of the abuse--especially sexual--of female adolescents in a conservative and traditional Bedouin-Arab community in southern Israel. The objectives were (1) to examine the rate of sexual abuse, (2) to examine the rate of physical and psychological abuse, and (3) to develop regression models to predict these…

Effects of environmental amenities and locational disamenities on home values in the Santa Cruz watershed: a hedonic analysis using census data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arora, Gaurav; Frisvold, George; Norman, Laura

2014-01-01

For this study, we used the hedonic pricing method to measure the effects of natural amenities on home prices in the U.S-side of the Santa Cruz Watershed. We employed multivariate spatial regression techniques to estimate how difference factors affect median home values in 613 census block groups of the 2000 Census, accounting for spatial autocorrelation, spatial lags, and/or spatial heterogeneity in the data. Diagnostic tests suggest that failure to account for the hedonic model can be classified as (1) physical features of the housing stock, (2) neighborhood characteristics, and (3) environmental attributes. Census data was combined with GIS data for vegetation and land cover, land administration, measures of species richness and open space, and proximity to amenities and disamenities. Census block groups close to the US-Mexico border of airports/air bases were negative. Results suggest that policies to maintain biodiversity and open space provide economic benefits to homeowners, reflected in higher home values. Future research will quantify the marginal effects of regression explanatory variables on home values to assess their economic and policy significant. These marginal effects will be used as input indicators to discern potential economic impacts of various scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM). Future research will also expand this effort into the Mexican-portion of the watershed.

Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation

PubMed Central

Coffman, Donna L.; Zhong, Wei

2012-01-01

This paper presents marginal structural models (MSMs) with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and outcome that has been influenced by treatment results in biased estimates of the direct effect (i.e., the effect of treatment on the outcome that does not go through the mediator). One advantage of IPW is that it can properly adjust for this type of confounding, assuming there are no unmeasured confounders. Further, we illustrate that IPW estimation provides unbiased estimates of all effects when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the treatment, when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the mediator, and when the treatment interacts with the mediator. IPW estimation also provides unbiased estimates of all effects in the presence of non-randomized treatments. In addition, for testing mediation we propose a test of the null hypothesis of no mediation. Finally, we illustrate this approach with an empirical data set in which the mediator is continuous, as is often the case in psychological research. PMID:22905648

Assessing mediation using marginal structural models in the presence of confounding and moderation.

PubMed

Coffman, Donna L; Zhong, Wei

2012-12-01

This article presents marginal structural models with inverse propensity weighting (IPW) for assessing mediation. Generally, individuals are not randomly assigned to levels of the mediator. Therefore, confounders of the mediator and outcome may exist that limit causal inferences, a goal of mediation analysis. Either regression adjustment or IPW can be used to take confounding into account, but IPW has several advantages. Regression adjustment of even one confounder of the mediator and outcome that has been influenced by treatment results in biased estimates of the direct effect (i.e., the effect of treatment on the outcome that does not go through the mediator). One advantage of IPW is that it can properly adjust for this type of confounding, assuming there are no unmeasured confounders. Further, we illustrate that IPW estimation provides unbiased estimates of all effects when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the treatment, when there is a baseline moderator variable that interacts with the mediator, and when the treatment interacts with the mediator. IPW estimation also provides unbiased estimates of all effects in the presence of nonrandomized treatments. In addition, for testing mediation we propose a test of the null hypothesis of no mediation. Finally, we illustrate this approach with an empirical data set in which the mediator is continuous, as is often the case in psychological research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Curtis L.; Tahhan, Antonio; Muchmore, Cody

2016-09-01

This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

Feature Augmentation via Nonparametrics and Selection (FANS) in High-Dimensional Classification.

PubMed

Fan, Jianqing; Feng, Yang; Jiang, Jiancheng; Tong, Xin

We propose a high dimensional classification method that involves nonparametric feature augmentation. Knowing that marginal density ratios are the most powerful univariate classifiers, we use the ratio estimates to transform the original feature measurements. Subsequently, penalized logistic regression is invoked, taking as input the newly transformed or augmented features. This procedure trains models equipped with local complexity and global simplicity, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality while creating a flexible nonlinear decision boundary. The resulting method is called Feature Augmentation via Nonparametrics and Selection (FANS). We motivate FANS by generalizing the Naive Bayes model, writing the log ratio of joint densities as a linear combination of those of marginal densities. It is related to generalized additive models, but has better interpretability and computability. Risk bounds are developed for FANS. In numerical analysis, FANS is compared with competing methods, so as to provide a guideline on its best application domain. Real data analysis demonstrates that FANS performs very competitively on benchmark email spam and gene expression data sets. Moreover, FANS is implemented by an extremely fast algorithm through parallel computing.

Feature Augmentation via Nonparametrics and Selection (FANS) in High-Dimensional Classification

PubMed Central

Feng, Yang; Jiang, Jiancheng; Tong, Xin

2015-01-01

We propose a high dimensional classification method that involves nonparametric feature augmentation. Knowing that marginal density ratios are the most powerful univariate classifiers, we use the ratio estimates to transform the original feature measurements. Subsequently, penalized logistic regression is invoked, taking as input the newly transformed or augmented features. This procedure trains models equipped with local complexity and global simplicity, thereby avoiding the curse of dimensionality while creating a flexible nonlinear decision boundary. The resulting method is called Feature Augmentation via Nonparametrics and Selection (FANS). We motivate FANS by generalizing the Naive Bayes model, writing the log ratio of joint densities as a linear combination of those of marginal densities. It is related to generalized additive models, but has better interpretability and computability. Risk bounds are developed for FANS. In numerical analysis, FANS is compared with competing methods, so as to provide a guideline on its best application domain. Real data analysis demonstrates that FANS performs very competitively on benchmark email spam and gene expression data sets. Moreover, FANS is implemented by an extremely fast algorithm through parallel computing. PMID:27185970

Model-Free Feature Screening for Ultrahigh Dimensional Discriminant Analysis

PubMed Central

Cui, Hengjian; Li, Runze

2014-01-01

This work is concerned with marginal sure independence feature screening for ultra-high dimensional discriminant analysis. The response variable is categorical in discriminant analysis. This enables us to use conditional distribution function to construct a new index for feature screening. In this paper, we propose a marginal feature screening procedure based on empirical conditional distribution function. We establish the sure screening and ranking consistency properties for the proposed procedure without assuming any moment condition on the predictors. The proposed procedure enjoys several appealing merits. First, it is model-free in that its implementation does not require specification of a regression model. Second, it is robust to heavy-tailed distributions of predictors and the presence of potential outliers. Third, it allows the categorical response having a diverging number of classes in the order of O(nκ) with some κ ≥ 0. We assess the finite sample property of the proposed procedure by Monte Carlo simulation studies and numerical comparison. We further illustrate the proposed methodology by empirical analyses of two real-life data sets. PMID:26392643

A New Monte Carlo Method for Estimating Marginal Likelihoods.

PubMed

Wang, Yu-Bo; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Lynn; Lewis, Paul O

2018-06-01

Evaluating the marginal likelihood in Bayesian analysis is essential for model selection. Estimators based on a single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample from the posterior distribution include the harmonic mean estimator and the inflated density ratio estimator. We propose a new class of Monte Carlo estimators based on this single Markov chain Monte Carlo sample. This class can be thought of as a generalization of the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators using a partition weighted kernel (likelihood times prior). We show that our estimator is consistent and has better theoretical properties than the harmonic mean and inflated density ratio estimators. In addition, we provide guidelines on choosing optimal weights. Simulation studies were conducted to examine the empirical performance of the proposed estimator. We further demonstrate the desirable features of the proposed estimator with two real data sets: one is from a prostate cancer study using an ordinal probit regression model with latent variables; the other is for the power prior construction from two Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group phase III clinical trials using the cure rate survival model with similar objectives.

A Predictive Model for Readmissions Among Medicare Patients in a California Hospital.

PubMed

Duncan, Ian; Huynh, Nhan

2017-11-17

Predictive models for hospital readmission rates are in high demand because of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). The LACE index is one of the most popular predictive tools among hospitals in the United States. The LACE index is a simple tool with 4 parameters: Length of stay, Acuity of admission, Comorbidity, and Emergency visits in the previous 6 months. The authors applied logistic regression to develop a predictive model for a medium-sized not-for-profit community hospital in California using patient-level data with more specific patient information (including 13 explanatory variables). Specifically, the logistic regression is applied to 2 populations: a general population including all patients and the specific group of patients targeted by the CMS penalty (characterized as ages 65 or older with select conditions). The 2 resulting logistic regression models have a higher sensitivity rate compared to the sensitivity of the LACE index. The C statistic values of the model applied to both populations demonstrate moderate levels of predictive power. The authors also build an economic model to demonstrate the potential financial impact of the use of the model for targeting high-risk patients in a sample hospital and demonstrate that, on balance, whether the hospital gains or loses from reducing readmissions depends on its margin and the extent of its readmission penalties.

Linking family dynamics and the mental health of Colombian dementia caregivers.

PubMed

Sutter, Megan; Perrin, Paul B; Chang, Yu-Ping; Hoyos, Guillermo Ramirez; Buraye, Jaqueline Arabia; Arango-Lasprilla, Juan Carlos

2014-02-01

This cross-sectional, quantitative, self-report study examined the relationship between family dynamics (cohesion, flexibility, pathology/ functioning, communication, family satisfaction, and empathy) and mental health (depression, burden, stress, and satisfaction with life [SWL]) in 90 dementia caregivers from Colombia. Hierarchical multiple regressions controlling for caregiver demographics found that family dynamics were significantly associated with caregiver depression, stress, and SWL and marginally associated with burden. Within these regressions, empathy was uniquely associated with stress; flexibility with depression and marginally with SWL; and family communication marginally with burden and stress. Nearly all family dynamic variables were bivariately associated with caregiver mental health variables, such that caregivers had stronger mental health when their family dynamics were healthy. Family-systems interventions in global regions with high levels of familism like that in the current study may improve family empathy, flexibility, and communication, thereby producing better caregiver mental health and better informal care for people with dementia.

MIXREG: a computer program for mixed-effects regression analysis with autocorrelated errors.

PubMed

Hedeker, D; Gibbons, R D

1996-05-01

MIXREG is a program that provides estimates for a mixed-effects regression model (MRM) for normally-distributed response data including autocorrelated errors. This model can be used for analysis of unbalanced longitudinal data, where individuals may be measured at a different number of timepoints, or even at different timepoints. Autocorrelated errors of a general form or following an AR(1), MA(1), or ARMA(1,1) form are allowable. This model can also be used for analysis of clustered data, where the mixed-effects model assumes data within clusters are dependent. The degree of dependency is estimated jointly with estimates of the usual model parameters, thus adjusting for clustering. MIXREG uses maximum marginal likelihood estimation, utilizing both the EM algorithm and a Fisher-scoring solution. For the scoring solution, the covariance matrix of the random effects is expressed in its Gaussian decomposition, and the diagonal matrix reparameterized using the exponential transformation. Estimation of the individual random effects is accomplished using an empirical Bayes approach. Examples illustrating usage and features of MIXREG are provided.

A Classroom Game on a Negative Externality Correcting Tax: Revenue Return, Regressivity, and the Double Dividend

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duke, Joshua M.; Sassoon, David M.

2017-01-01

The concept of negative externality is central to the teaching of environmental economics, but corrective taxes are almost always regressive. How exactly might governments return externality-correcting tax revenue to overcome regressivity and not alter marginal incentives? In addition, there is a desire to achieve a double dividend in the use of…

Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

PubMed Central

Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

2010-01-01

We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

Assessing the effectiveness of a hybrid-flipped model of learning on fluid mechanics instruction: overall course performance, homework, and far- and near-transfer of learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, David J.; Saito, Laurel; Markee, Nancy; Herzog, Serge

2017-11-01

To examine the impact of a hybrid-flipped model utilising active learning techniques, the researchers inverted one section of an undergraduate fluid mechanics course, reduced seat time, and engaged in active learning sessions in the classroom. We compared this model to the traditional section on four performance measures. We employed a propensity score method entailing a two-stage regression analysis that considered eight covariates to address the potential bias of treatment selection. First, we estimated the probability score based on the eight covariates, and second, we used the inverse of the probability score as a regression weight on the performance of learners who did not select into the hybrid course. Results suggest that enrolment in the hybrid-flipped section had a marginally significant negative impact on the total course score and a significant negative impact on homework performance, possibly because of poor video usage by the hybrid-flipped learners. Suggested considerations are also discussed.

Factors That Influence Surgical Margin State in Patients Undergoing Cold Knife Conization - A Single Center Experience.

PubMed

Aluloski, Igor; Tanturovski, Mile; Petrusevska, Gordana; Jovanovic, Rubens; Kostadinova-Kunovska, Slavica

2017-12-01

To evaluate the factors that influence the surgical margin state in patients undergoing cold knife conization at the University Clinic of Gynecology and Obstetrics in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia Materials and methods: We have retrospectively analyzed the medical records of all patients that underwent a cold knife conization at our Clinic in 2015. We cross-referenced the surgical margin state with the histopathological diagnosis (LSIL, HSIL or micro-invasive/invasive cancer), menopausal status of the patients, number of pregnancies, surgeon experience, operating time and cone depth. The data was analyzed with the Chi square test, Fisher's exact test for categorical data and Student's T test for continuous data and univariate and multivariate logistical regressions were performed. A total of 246 medical records have neen analyzed, out of which 29 (11.79%) patients had LSIL, 194 (78.86%) had HSIL and 23 (9.34%) patients suffered micro-invasive/invasive cervical cancer. The surgical margins were positive in 78 (31.7%) of the patients. The average age of the patients was 41.13 and 35 (14.23%) of the patients were menopausal. The multivariate logistic regression identified preoperative forceps biopsy of micro-invasive SCC, HSIL or higher cone specimen histology and shorter cone depth as independent predictors of surgical margin involvement in patients undergoing cold knife conization. In the current study, we have found no association between the inherent characteristics of the patient and the surgeon and the surgical margin state after a CKC. The most important predictors for positive margins were the severity of the lesion and the cone depth.

Correlates of school dropout and absenteeism among adolescent girls from marginalized community in north Karnataka, south India.

PubMed

Prakash, Ravi; Beattie, Tara; Javalkar, Prakash; Bhattacharjee, Parinita; Ramanaik, Satyanarayana; Thalinja, Raghavendra; Murthy, Srikanta; Davey, Calum; Blanchard, James; Watts, Charlotte; Collumbien, Martine; Moses, Stephen; Heise, Lori; Isac, Shajy

2017-12-01

Secondary education among lower caste adolescent girls living in rural Karnataka, South India, is characterized by high rates of school drop-out and absenteeism. A cross-sectional baseline survey (N=2275) was conducted in 2014 as part of a cluster-randomized control trial among adolescent girls (13-14 year) and their families from marginalized communities in two districts of north Karnataka. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used. Overall, 8.7% girls reported secondary school dropout and 8.1% reported frequent absenteeism (past month). In adjusted analyses, economic factors (household poverty; girls' work-related migration), social norms and practices (child marriage; value of girls' education), and school-related factors (poor learning environment and bullying/harassment at school) were associated with an increased odds of school dropout and absenteeism. Interventions aiming to increase secondary school retention among marginalized girls may require a multi-level approach, with synergistic components that address social, structural and economic determinants of school absenteeism and dropout. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Technician Consistency in Specular Microscopy Measurements: A "Real-World" Retrospective Analysis of a United States Eye Bank.

PubMed

Rand, Gabriel M; Kwon, Ji Won; Gore, Patrick K; McCartney, Mitchell D; Chuck, Roy S

2017-10-01

To quantify consistency of endothelial cell density (ECD) measurements among technicians in a single US eye bank operating under typical operating conditions. In this retrospective analysis of 51 microscopy technicians using a semiautomated counting method on 35,067 eyes from July 2007 to May 2015, technician- and date-related marginal ECD effects were calculated using linear regression models. ECD variance was correlated with the number of specular microscopy technicians. Technician mean ECDs ranged from 2386 ± 431 to 3005 ± 560 cells/mm. Nine technicians had statistically and clinically significant marginal effects. Annual mean ECDs adjusted for changes in technicians ranged from 2422 ± 433 to 2644 ± 430 cells/mm. The period of 2007 to 2009 had statistically and clinically significant marginal effects. There was a nonstatistically significant association between the number of technicians and ECD standard deviation. There was significant ECD variability associated with specular microscopy technicians and with the date of measurement. We recommend that eye banks collect data related to laboratory factors that have been shown to influence ECD variability.

The alarming problems of confounding equivalence using logistic regression models in the perspective of causal diagrams.

PubMed

Yu, Yuanyuan; Li, Hongkai; Sun, Xiaoru; Su, Ping; Wang, Tingting; Liu, Yi; Yuan, Zhongshang; Liu, Yanxun; Xue, Fuzhong

2017-12-28

Confounders can produce spurious associations between exposure and outcome in observational studies. For majority of epidemiologists, adjusting for confounders using logistic regression model is their habitual method, though it has some problems in accuracy and precision. It is, therefore, important to highlight the problems of logistic regression and search the alternative method. Four causal diagram models were defined to summarize confounding equivalence. Both theoretical proofs and simulation studies were performed to verify whether conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential and then to select the optimum adjusting strategy, in which logistic regression model and inverse probability weighting based marginal structural model (IPW-based-MSM) were compared. The "do-calculus" was used to calculate the true causal effect of exposure on outcome, then the bias and standard error were used to evaluate the performances of different strategies. Adjusting for different sets of confounding equivalence, as judged by identical Markov boundaries, produced different bias-reducing potential in the logistic regression model. For the sets satisfied G-admissibility, adjusting for the set including all the confounders reduced the equivalent bias to the one containing the parent nodes of the outcome, while the bias after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was not equivalent to them. In addition, all causal effect estimations through logistic regression were biased, although the estimation after adjusting for the parent nodes of exposure was nearest to the true causal effect. However, conditioning on different confounding equivalence sets had the same bias-reducing potential under IPW-based-MSM. Compared with logistic regression, the IPW-based-MSM could obtain unbiased causal effect estimation when the adjusted confounders satisfied G-admissibility and the optimal strategy was to adjust for the parent nodes of outcome, which obtained the highest precision. All adjustment strategies through logistic regression were biased for causal effect estimation, while IPW-based-MSM could always obtain unbiased estimation when the adjusted set satisfied G-admissibility. Thus, IPW-based-MSM was recommended to adjust for confounders set.

Application of conditional moment tests to model checking for generalized linear models.

PubMed

Pan, Wei

2002-06-01

Generalized linear models (GLMs) are increasingly being used in daily data analysis. However, model checking for GLMs with correlated discrete response data remains difficult. In this paper, through a case study on marginal logistic regression using a real data set, we illustrate the flexibility and effectiveness of using conditional moment tests (CMTs), along with other graphical methods, to do model checking for generalized estimation equation (GEE) analyses. Although CMTs provide an array of powerful diagnostic tests for model checking, they were originally proposed in the econometrics literature and, to our knowledge, have never been applied to GEE analyses. CMTs cover many existing tests, including the (generalized) score test for an omitted covariate, as special cases. In summary, we believe that CMTs provide a class of useful model checking tools.

An application of model-fitting procedures for marginal structural models.

PubMed

Mortimer, Kathleen M; Neugebauer, Romain; van der Laan, Mark; Tager, Ira B

2005-08-15

Marginal structural models (MSMs) are being used more frequently to obtain causal effect estimates in observational studies. Although the principal estimator of MSM coefficients has been the inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW) estimator, there are few published examples that illustrate how to apply IPTW or discuss the impact of model selection on effect estimates. The authors applied IPTW estimation of an MSM to observational data from the Fresno Asthmatic Children's Environment Study (2000-2002) to evaluate the effect of asthma rescue medication use on pulmonary function and compared their results with those obtained through traditional regression methods. Akaike's Information Criterion and cross-validation methods were used to fit the MSM. In this paper, the influence of model selection and evaluation of key assumptions such as the experimental treatment assignment assumption are discussed in detail. Traditional analyses suggested that medication use was not associated with an improvement in pulmonary function--a finding that is counterintuitive and probably due to confounding by symptoms and asthma severity. The final MSM estimated that medication use was causally related to a 7% improvement in pulmonary function. The authors present examples that should encourage investigators who use IPTW estimation to undertake and discuss the impact of model-fitting procedures to justify the choice of the final weights.

Use of Empirical Estimates of Shrinkage in Multiple Regression: A Caution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Hines, Constance V.

1995-01-01

The accuracy of four empirical techniques to estimate shrinkage in multiple regression was studied through Monte Carlo simulation. None of the techniques provided unbiased estimates of the population squared multiple correlation coefficient, but the normalized jackknife and bootstrap techniques demonstrated marginally acceptable performance with…

Exploring the Subtleties of Inverse Probability Weighting and Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Breskin, Alexander; Cole, Stephen R; Westreich, Daniel

2018-05-01

Since being introduced to epidemiology in 2000, marginal structural models have become a commonly used method for causal inference in a wide range of epidemiologic settings. In this brief report, we aim to explore three subtleties of marginal structural models. First, we distinguish marginal structural models from the inverse probability weighting estimator, and we emphasize that marginal structural models are not only for longitudinal exposures. Second, we explore the meaning of the word "marginal" in "marginal structural model." Finally, we show that the specification of a marginal structural model can have important implications for the interpretation of its parameters. Each of these concepts have important implications for the use and understanding of marginal structural models, and thus providing detailed explanations of them may lead to better practices for the field of epidemiology.

Development of image-guided targeted two-photon PDT for the treatment of head and neck cancers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spangler, Charles W.; Starkey, Jean R.; Liang, Bo; Fedorka, Sara; Yang, Hao; Jiang, Huabei

2014-03-01

There has been significant effort over the past two decades in the treatment of malignancies of epithelial origin, including some of the most devastating of cancers, such as colorectal cancer (CRC), squamous call carcinoma of the head and neck (HNSCC), and carcinomas of the pancreas, lungs, (both Small Cell and Non-Small Cell), renal cell, prostate, bladder and breast. Recurring, refractory HNSCC is a particularly difficult cancer to treat once the tumors recur due to mutations that are resistant to repeat chemotherapy and radiation. In addition, repeat surgery is often difficult due to the requirement of significant surgical margins that may not be possible due to the attending potential functional deficits (e.g., salivary glands, nerves and major blood vessels in confined areas). In this study FaDu HNSCC xenograft tumors in SCID mice were imaged, and "optical", as opposed to "surgical" margins defined for the tumor being treated. The subsequent two-photon treatment irradiation was computer-controlled to carry out the tumor treatment by rastering the laser beam throughout the tumor volume plus the defined optical margins simultaneously. In our initial studies, up to 85% regression in tumor volume was observed in 5 days post PDT, with complete tumor regression in 18 days. No re-growth was observed up to 41 days post-PDT, with little or no scarring and complete hair re-growth. However, competition between imaging and PDT moieties was also observed in some mouse models, possibly favoring tumor re-growth. Strategies to selectively optimize the PDT effect will be discussed.

Cost evaluation of clinical laboratory in Taiwan's National Health System by using activity-based costing.

PubMed

Su, Bin-Guang; Chen, Shao-Fen; Yeh, Shu-Hsing; Shih, Po-Wen; Lin, Ching-Chiang

2016-11-01

To cope with the government's policies to reduce medical costs, Taiwan's healthcare service providers are striving to survive by pursuing profit maximization through cost control. This article aimed to present the results of cost evaluation using activity-based costing performed in the laboratory in order to throw light on the differences between costs and the payment system of National Health Insurance (NHI). This study analyzed the data of costs and income of the clinical laboratory. Direct costs belong to their respective sections of the department. The department's shared costs, including public expenses and administrative assigned costs, were allocated to the department's respective sections. A simple regression equation was created to predict profit and loss, and evaluate the department's break-even point, fixed cost, and contribution margin ratio. In clinical chemistry and seroimmunology sections, the cost per test was lower than the NHI payment and their major laboratory tests had revenues with the profitability ratio of 8.7%, while the other sections had a higher cost per test than the NHI payment and their major tests were in deficit. The study found a simple linear regression model as follows: "Balance=-84,995+0.543×income (R2=0.544)". In order to avoid deficit, laboratories are suggested to increase test volumes, enhance laboratory test specialization, and become marginal scale. A hospital could integrate with regional medical institutions through alliances or OEM methods to increase volumes to reach marginal scale and reduce laboratory costs, enhancing the level and quality of laboratory medicine.

Heterogeneity in hedonic modelling of house prices: looking at buyers' household profiles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kestens, Yan; Thériault, Marius; Des Rosiers, François

2006-03-01

This paper introduces household-level data into hedonic models in order to measure the heterogeneity of implicit prices regarding household type, age, educational attainment, income, and the previous tenure status of the buyers. Two methods are used for this purpose: a first series of models uses expansion terms, whereas a second series applies Geographically Weighted Regressions. Both methods yield conclusive results, showing that the marginal value given to certain property specifics and location attributes do vary regarding the characteristics of the buyer’s household. Particularly, major findings concern the significant effect of income on the location rent as well as the premium paid by highly-educated households in order to fulfil social homogeneity.

Using Marginal Structural Measurement-Error Models to Estimate the Long-term Effect of Antiretroviral Therapy on Incident AIDS or Death

PubMed Central

Cole, Stephen R.; Jacobson, Lisa P.; Tien, Phyllis C.; Kingsley, Lawrence; Chmiel, Joan S.; Anastos, Kathryn

2010-01-01

To estimate the net effect of imperfectly measured highly active antiretroviral therapy on incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death, the authors combined inverse probability-of-treatment-and-censoring weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox model with regression-calibration methods. Between 1995 and 2007, 950 human immunodeficiency virus–positive men and women were followed in 2 US cohort studies. During 4,054 person-years, 374 initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy, 211 developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or died, and 173 dropped out. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout, the weighted hazard ratio for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome or death comparing use of highly active antiretroviral therapy in the prior 2 years with no therapy was 0.36 (95% confidence limits: 0.21, 0.61). This association was relatively constant over follow-up (P = 0.19) and stronger than crude or adjusted hazard ratios of 0.75 and 0.95, respectively. Accounting for measurement error in reported exposure using external validation data on 331 men and women provided a hazard ratio of 0.17, with bias shifted from the hazard ratio to the estimate of precision as seen by the 2.5-fold wider confidence limits (95% confidence limits: 0.06, 0.43). Marginal structural measurement-error models can simultaneously account for 3 major sources of bias in epidemiologic research: validated exposure measurement error, measured selection bias, and measured time-fixed and time-varying confounding. PMID:19934191

Wildland recreation in the rural South: an examination of marginality and ethnicity theory

Treesearch

Cassandra Y. Johnson; J. Michael Bowker; Donald B.K. English; Dreamal Worthen

1998-01-01

The ethnicity and marginality explanations of minority recreation participation provide the conceptual basis for the authors’ inquiry. These theories are examined for a sample of rural African-Americans and whites. Using logistic regression, the researchers test for black and while differences in: 1) visitation to wildland areas in general; 2) visitation to national...

Do Robotic Surgical Systems Improve Profit Margins? A Cross-Sectional Analysis of California Hospitals.

PubMed

Shih, Ya-Chen Tina; Shen, Chan; Hu, Jim C

2017-09-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between ownership of robotic surgical systems and hospital profit margins. This study used hospital annual utilization data, annual financial data, and discharge data for year 2011 from the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development. We first performed bivariate analysis to compare mean profit margin by hospital and market characteristics and to examine whether these characteristics differed between hospitals that had one or more robotic surgical systems in 2011 and those that did not. We applied the t test and the F test to compare mean profit margin between two groups and among three or more groups, respectively. We then conducted multilevel logistic regression to determine the association between ownership of robotic surgical systems and having a positive profit margin after controlling for other hospital and market characteristics and accounting for possible correlation among hospitals located within the same market. The study sample included 167 California hospitals with valid financial information. Hospitals with robotic surgical systems tended to report more favorable profit margins. However, multilevel logistic regression showed that this relationship (an association, not causality) became only marginally significant (odds ratio [OR] = 6.2; P = 0.053) after controlling for other hospital characteristics, such as ownership type, teaching status, bed size, and surgical volumes, and market characteristics, such as total number of robotic surgical systems owned by other hospitals in the same market area. As robotic surgical systems become widely disseminated, hospital decision makers should carefully evaluate the financial and clinical implications before making a capital investment in this technology. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Minimum Abutment Height to Eliminate Bone Loss: Influence of Implant Neck Design and Platform Switching.

PubMed

Spinato, Sergio; Galindo-Moreno, Pablo; Bernardello, Fabio; Zaffe, Davide

This retrospective study quantitatively analyzed the minimum prosthetic abutment height to eliminate bone loss after 4.7-mm-diameter implant placement in maxillary bone and how grafting techniques can affect the marginal bone loss in implants placed in maxillary areas. Two different implant types with a similar neck design were singularly placed in two groups of patients: the test group, with platform-switched implants, and the control group, with conventional (non-platform-switched) implants. Patients requiring bone augmentation underwent unilateral sinus augmentation using a transcrestal technique with mineralized xenograft. Radiographs were taken immediately after implant placement, after delivery of the prosthetic restoration, and after 12 months of loading. The average mesial and distal marginal bone loss of the control group (25 patients) was significantly more than twice that of the test group (26 patients), while their average abutment height was similar. Linear regression analysis highlighted a statistically significant inverse relationship between marginal bone loss and abutment height in both groups; however, the intercept of the regression line, both mesially and distally, was 50% lower for the test group than for the control group. The marginal bone loss was annulled with an abutment height of 2.5 mm for the test group and 3.0 mm for the control group. No statistically significant differences were found regarding marginal bone loss of implants placed in native maxillary bone compared with those placed in the grafted areas. The results suggest that the shorter the abutment height, the greater the marginal bone loss in cement-retained prostheses. Abutment height showed a greater influence in platform-switched than in non-platform-switched implants on the limitation of marginal bone loss.

Robot-assisted radical prostatectomy: Multiparametric MR imaging-directed intraoperative frozen-section analysis to reduce the rate of positive surgical margins.

PubMed

Petralia, Giuseppe; Musi, Gennaro; Padhani, Anwar R; Summers, Paul; Renne, Giuseppe; Alessi, Sarah; Raimondi, Sara; Matei, Deliu V; Renne, Salvatore L; Jereczek-Fossa, Barbara A; De Cobelli, Ottavio; Bellomi, Massimo

2015-02-01

To investigate whether use of multiparametric magnetic resonance (MR) imaging-directed intraoperative frozen-section (IFS) analysis during nerve-sparing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy reduces the rate of positive surgical margins. This retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data was approved by an institutional ethics committee, and the requirement for informed consent was waived. Data were reviewed for 134 patients who underwent preoperative multiparametric MR imaging (T2 weighted, diffusion weighted, and dynamic contrast-material enhanced) and nerve-sparing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy, during which IFS analysis was used, and secondary resections were performed when IFS results were positive for cancer. Control patients (n = 134) matched for age, prostate-specific antigen level, and stage were selected from a pool of 322 patients who underwent nerve-sparing robot-assisted radical prostatectomy without multiparametric MR imaging and IFS analysis. Rates of positive surgical margins were compared by means of the McNemar test, and a multivariate conditional logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds ratio of positive surgical margins for patients who underwent MR imaging and IFS analysis compared with control subjects. Eighteen patients who underwent MR imaging and IFS analysis underwent secondary resections, and 13 of these patients were found to have negative surgical margins at final pathologic examination. Positive surgical margins were found less frequently in the patients who underwent MR imaging and IFS analysis than in control patients (7.5% vs 18.7%, P = .01). When the differences in risk factors are taken into account, patients who underwent MR imaging and IFS had one-seventh the risk of having positive surgical margins relative to control patients (adjusted odds ratio: 0.15; 95% confidence interval: 0.04, 0.61). The significantly lower rate of positive surgical margins compared with that in control patients provides preliminary evidence of the positive clinical effect of multiparametric MR imaging-directed IFS analysis for patients who undergo prostatectomy. © RSNA, 2014.

Flexible Meta-Regression to Assess the Shape of the Benzene–Leukemia Exposure–Response Curve

PubMed Central

Vlaanderen, Jelle; Portengen, Lützen; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing; Kromhout, Hans; Vermeulen, Roel

2010-01-01

Background Previous evaluations of the shape of the benzene–leukemia exposure–response curve (ERC) were based on a single set or on small sets of human occupational studies. Integrating evidence from all available studies that are of sufficient quality combined with flexible meta-regression models is likely to provide better insight into the functional relation between benzene exposure and risk of leukemia. Objectives We used natural splines in a flexible meta-regression method to assess the shape of the benzene–leukemia ERC. Methods We fitted meta-regression models to 30 aggregated risk estimates extracted from nine human observational studies and performed sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of a priori assessed study characteristics on the predicted ERC. Results The natural spline showed a supralinear shape at cumulative exposures less than 100 ppm-years, although this model fitted the data only marginally better than a linear model (p = 0.06). Stratification based on study design and jackknifing indicated that the cohort studies had a considerable impact on the shape of the ERC at high exposure levels (> 100 ppm-years) but that predicted risks for the low exposure range (< 50 ppm-years) were robust. Conclusions Although limited by the small number of studies and the large heterogeneity between studies, the inclusion of all studies of sufficient quality combined with a flexible meta-regression method provides the most comprehensive evaluation of the benzene–leukemia ERC to date. The natural spline based on all data indicates a significantly increased risk of leukemia [relative risk (RR) = 1.14; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.04–1.26] at an exposure level as low as 10 ppm-years. PMID:20064779

Marginal Bone Loss after Ten Years in an Adult Danish Population: A Radiographic Study.

PubMed

Bahrami, Golnosh; Vaeth, Michael; Wenzel, Ann; Isidor, Flemming

To evaluate marginal bone loss over a 10-year period in individuals and in tooth groups in relation to age and level of marginal bone. In 1997, 616 randomly selected individuals (mean age: 42 years, range: 21-63 years) underwent a full-mouth radiographic survey. In 2008, the survey was repeated in 362 of the same individuals (182 women and 180 men). The marginal bone level of each tooth was measured in mm from the cementoenamel junction to the marginal bone. These measurements were used to calculate marginal bone loss during the 10-year period for individuals and tooth groups in relation to age and to baseline marginal bone level, calculated as the average between measurements in 1997 and 2008 to circumvent regression towards the mean. The average annual marginal bone loss was 0.09 mm (SD ± 0.04 mm) during the 10-year study period. The association between marginal bone loss and baseline marginal bone level was more pronounced in the youngest age group, compared to the other age groups. Molars displayed the most severe bone loss during the study period. Marginal bone loss over a 10-year period is associated with age and baseline marginal bone level. Younger individuals with a reduced marginal bone level were at higher risk for further bone loss. Molars lose marginal bone more rapidly than other tooth groups.

Methods of defining the non-inferiority margin in randomized, double-blind controlled trials: a systematic review.

PubMed

Althunian, Turki A; de Boer, Anthonius; Klungel, Olaf H; Insani, Widya N; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2017-03-07

There is no consensus on the preferred method for defining the non-inferiority margin in non-inferiority trials, and previous studies showed that the rationale for its choice is often not reported. This study investigated how the non-inferiority margin is defined in the published literature, and whether its reporting has changed over time. A systematic PubMed search was conducted for all published randomized, double-blind, non-inferiority trials from January 1, 1966, to February 6, 2015. The primary outcome was the number of margins that were defined by methods other than the historical evidence of the active comparator. This was evaluated for a time trend. We also assessed the under-reporting of the methods of defining the margin as a secondary outcome, and whether this changed over time. Both outcomes were analyzed using a Poisson log-linear model. Predictors for better reporting of the methods, and the use of the fixed-margin method (one of the historical evidence methods) were also analyzed using logistic regression. Two hundred seventy-three articles were included, which account for 273 non-inferiority margins. There was no statistically significant difference in the number of margins that were defined by other methods compared to those defined based on the historical evidence (ratio 2.17, 95% CI 0.86 to 5.82, p = 0.11), and this did not change over time. The number of margins for which methods were unreported was similar to those with reported methods (ratio 1.35, 95% CI 0.76 to 2.43, p = 0.31), with no change over time. The method of defining the margin was less often reported in journals with low-impact factors compared to journals with high-impact factors (OR 0.20; 95% CI 0.10 to 0.37, p < 0.0001). The publication of the FDA draft guidance in 2010 was associated with increased reporting of the fixed-margin method (after versus before 2010) (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.12 to 13.35, p = 0.04). Non-inferiority margins are not commonly defined based on the historical evidence of the active comparator, and they are poorly reported. Authors, reviewers, and editors need to take notice of reporting this critical information to allow for better judgment of non-inferiority trials.

Positive margins prediction in breast cancer conservative surgery: Assessment of a preoperative web-based nomogram.

PubMed

Alves-Ribeiro, Lídia; Osório, Fernando; Amendoeira, Isabel; Fougo, José Luís

2016-08-01

Margin status of the surgical specimen has been shown to be a prognostic and risk factor for local recurrence in breast cancer surgery. It has been studied as a topic of intervention to diminish reoperation rates and reduce the probability of local recurrence in breast conservative surgery (BCS). This study aims to validate the Dutch BreastConservation! nomogram, created by Pleijhus et al., which predicts preoperative probability of positive margins in BCS. Patients with diagnosis of breast cancer stages cT1-2, who underwent BCS at the Breast Center of São João University Hospital (BC-CHSJ) in 2013-2014, were included. Association and correlation were evaluated for clinical, radiological, pathological and surgical variables. Multivariable logistic regression and ROC curves were used to assess nomogram parameters and discrimination. In our series of 253 patients, no associations were found between margin status and other studied variables (such as age or family history of breast cancer), except for weight (p-value = 0.045) and volume (p-value = 0.012) of the surgical specimen. Regarding the nomogram, a statistically significant association was shown between cN1 status and positive margins (p-value = 0.014). No differences were registered between the scores of patients with positive versus negative margins. Discrimination analysis showed an AUC of 0.474 for the basic and 0.508 for the expanded models. We cannot assume its external validation or its applicability to our cohort. Further studies are needed to determine the validity of this nomogram and achieve a broader view of currently available tools. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of logistic regression analysis and an artificial neural network using the BI-RADS lexicon for ultrasonography in conjunction with introbserver variability.

PubMed

Kim, Sun Mi; Han, Heon; Park, Jeong Mi; Choi, Yoon Jung; Yoon, Hoi Soo; Sohn, Jung Hee; Baek, Moon Hee; Kim, Yoon Nam; Chae, Young Moon; June, Jeon Jong; Lee, Jiwon; Jeon, Yong Hwan

2012-10-01

To determine which Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) descriptors for ultrasound are predictors for breast cancer using logistic regression (LR) analysis in conjunction with interobserver variability between breast radiologists, and to compare the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) and LR models in differentiation of benign and malignant breast masses. Five breast radiologists retrospectively reviewed 140 breast masses and described each lesion using BI-RADS lexicon and categorized final assessments. Interobserver agreements between the observers were measured by kappa statistics. The radiologists' responses for BI-RADS were pooled. The data were divided randomly into train (n = 70) and test sets (n = 70). Using train set, optimal independent variables were determined by using LR analysis with forward stepwise selection. The LR and ANN models were constructed with the optimal independent variables and the biopsy results as dependent variable. Performances of the models and radiologists were evaluated on the test set using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Among BI-RADS descriptors, margin and boundary were determined as the predictors according to stepwise LR showing moderate interobserver agreement. Area under the ROC curves (AUC) for both of LR and ANN were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77-0.94). AUCs for the five radiologists ranged 0.79-0.91. There was no significant difference in AUC values among the LR, ANN, and radiologists (p > 0.05). Margin and boundary were found as statistically significant predictors with good interobserver agreement. Use of the LR and ANN showed similar performance to that of the radiologists for differentiation of benign and malignant breast masses.

A Linear Dynamical Systems Approach to Streamflow Reconstruction Reveals History of Regime Shifts in Northern Thailand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, Hung T. T.; Galelli, Stefano

2018-03-01

Catchment dynamics is not often modeled in streamflow reconstruction studies; yet, the streamflow generation process depends on both catchment state and climatic inputs. To explicitly account for this interaction, we contribute a linear dynamic model, in which streamflow is a function of both catchment state (i.e., wet/dry) and paleoclimatic proxies. The model is learned using a novel variant of the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and it is used with a paleo drought record—the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas—to reconstruct 406 years of streamflow for the Ping River (northern Thailand). Results for the instrumental period show that the dynamic model has higher accuracy than conventional linear regression; all performance scores improve by 45-497%. Furthermore, the reconstructed trajectory of the state variable provides valuable insights about the catchment history—e.g., regime-like behavior—thereby complementing the information contained in the reconstructed streamflow time series. The proposed technique can replace linear regression, since it only requires information on streamflow and climatic proxies (e.g., tree-rings, drought indices); furthermore, it is capable of readily generating stochastic streamflow replicates. With a marginal increase in computational requirements, the dynamic model brings more desirable features and value to streamflow reconstructions.

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A novel variational Bayes multiple locus Z-statistic for genome-wide association studies with Bayesian model averaging

PubMed Central

Logsdon, Benjamin A.; Carty, Cara L.; Reiner, Alexander P.; Dai, James Y.; Kooperberg, Charles

2012-01-01

Motivation: For many complex traits, including height, the majority of variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have small effects, leaving a significant proportion of the heritable variation unexplained. Although many penalized multiple regression methodologies have been proposed to increase the power to detect associations for complex genetic architectures, they generally lack mechanisms for false-positive control and diagnostics for model over-fitting. Our methodology is the first penalized multiple regression approach that explicitly controls Type I error rates and provide model over-fitting diagnostics through a novel normally distributed statistic defined for every marker within the GWAS, based on results from a variational Bayes spike regression algorithm. Results: We compare the performance of our method to the lasso and single marker analysis on simulated data and demonstrate that our approach has superior performance in terms of power and Type I error control. In addition, using the Women's Health Initiative (WHI) SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) GWAS of African-Americans, we show that our method has power to detect additional novel associations with body height. These findings replicate by reaching a stringent cutoff of marginal association in a larger cohort. Availability: An R-package, including an implementation of our variational Bayes spike regression (vBsr) algorithm, is available at http://kooperberg.fhcrc.org/soft.html. Contact: blogsdon@fhcrc.org Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:22563072

Predicting Health Care Utilization in Marginalized Populations: Black, Female, Street-based Sex Workers

PubMed Central

Varga, Leah M.; Surratt, Hilary L.

2014-01-01

Background Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. Methods The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen’s Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. Findings The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Conclusions Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. PMID:24657047

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods.

PubMed

Duncan, Dustin T; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C; White, Kellee; Williams, David R

2014-04-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran's I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran's I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P =0.001), for tree density (Global Moran's I =0.452, P =0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran's I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P <0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (r S =-0.19; conventional P -value=0.016; spatially adjusted P -value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (r S =-0.18; conventional P -value=0.019; spatially adjusted P -value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed.

Formation and tectonic evolution of the Pattani Basin, Gulf of Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bustin, R.M.; Chonchawalit, A.

The stratigraphic and structural evolution of the Pattani Basin, the most prolific petroleum basin in Thailand, reflects the extensional tectonic regime of continental Southeast Asia. E-W extension resulting from the northward collision of India with Eurasia since the Early Tertiary resulted in the formation of a series of N-S-trending sedimentary basins, which include the Pattani Basin. The sedimentary succession in the Pattani Basin is divisible into synrift and postrift sequences. Deposition of the synrift sequence accompanied rifting and extension, with episodic block faulting and rapid subsidence. The synrift sequence comprises three stratigraphic units: (1) Upper Eocene to Lower Olikgocene alluvial-fan,more » braided-river, and floodplain deposits; (2) Upper oligocene to Lowe Miocene floodplain and channel deposits; and (3) a Lower Miocene regressive package consisting of marine to nonmarine sediments. Post-rift succession comprises: (1) a Lower to Middle Miocene regressive package of shallow marine sediments through floodplain and channel deposits; (2) an upper Lower Miocene transgressive sequence; and (3) and Upper Miocene to Pleistocene transgressive succession. The post-rift phase is characterized by slower subsidence and decreased sediment influx. The present-day shallow-marine condition in the Gulf of Thailand is the continuation of this latest transgressive phase. The subsidence and thermal history of the Pattani Basin is consistent with a nonuniform lithospheric-stretching model. The amount of extension as well as surface heat flow generally increases from the margin to the basin center. The crustal stretching factor ({beta}) varies form 1.3 at the basin margin to 2.8 in the center. The subcrustal stretching factor ({delta}) ranges from 1.3 at the basin margin to more than 3.0 in the basin center. 31 refs., 13 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Carboxyhemoglobin levels in medical intensive care patients: a retrospective, observational study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Introduction Critical illness leads to increased endogenous production of carbon monoxide (CO) due to the induction of the stress-response enzyme, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). There is evidence for the cytoprotective and anti-inflammatory effects of CO based on animal studies. In critically ill patients after cardiothoracic surgery, low minimum and high maximum carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels were shown to be associated with increased mortality, which suggests that there is an 'optimal range' for HO-1 activity. Our study aimed to test whether this relationship between COHb and outcome exists in non-surgical ICU patients. Methods We conducted a retrospective, observational study in a medical ICU at a university hospital in Vienna, Austria involving 868 critically ill patients. No interventions were undertaken. Arterial COHb was measured on admission and during the course of treatment in the ICU. The association between arterial COHb levels and ICU mortality was evaluated using bivariate tests and a logistic regression model. Results Minimum COHb levels were slightly lower in non-survivors compared to survivors (0.9%, 0.7% to 1.2% versus 1.2%, 0.9% to 1.5%; P = 0.0001), and the average COHb levels were marginally lower in non-survivors compared to survivors (1.5%, 1.2% to 1.8% versus 1.6%, 1.4% to 1.9%, P = 0.003). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the association between a low minimum COHb level and increased mortality was independent of the severity of illness and the type of organ failure. Conclusions Critically ill patients surviving the admission to a medical ICU had slightly higher minimum and marginally higher average COHb levels when compared to non-survivors. Even though the observed differences are statistically significant, the minute margins would not qualify COHb as a predictive marker for ICU mortality. PMID:22236404

Carboxyhemoglobin levels in medical intensive care patients: a retrospective, observational study.

PubMed

Fazekas, Andreas S; Wewalka, Marlene; Zauner, Christian; Funk, Georg-Christian

2012-01-11

Critical illness leads to increased endogenous production of carbon monoxide (CO) due to the induction of the stress-response enzyme, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1). There is evidence for the cytoprotective and anti-inflammatory effects of CO based on animal studies. In critically ill patients after cardiothoracic surgery, low minimum and high maximum carboxyhemoglobin (COHb) levels were shown to be associated with increased mortality, which suggests that there is an 'optimal range' for HO-1 activity. Our study aimed to test whether this relationship between COHb and outcome exists in non-surgical ICU patients. We conducted a retrospective, observational study in a medical ICU at a university hospital in Vienna, Austria involving 868 critically ill patients. No interventions were undertaken. Arterial COHb was measured on admission and during the course of treatment in the ICU. The association between arterial COHb levels and ICU mortality was evaluated using bivariate tests and a logistic regression model. Minimum COHb levels were slightly lower in non-survivors compared to survivors (0.9%, 0.7% to 1.2% versus 1.2%, 0.9% to 1.5%; P=0.0001), and the average COHb levels were marginally lower in non-survivors compared to survivors (1.5%, 1.2% to 1.8% versus 1.6%, 1.4% to 1.9%, P=0.003). The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the association between a low minimum COHb level and increased mortality was independent of the severity of illness and the type of organ failure. Critically ill patients surviving the admission to a medical ICU had slightly higher minimum and marginally higher average COHb levels when compared to non-survivors. Even though the observed differences are statistically significant, the minute margins would not qualify COHb as a predictive marker for ICU mortality.

A Statistical Method for Synthesizing Mediation Analyses Using the Product of Coefficient Approach Across Multiple Trials

PubMed Central

Huang, Shi; MacKinnon, David P.; Perrino, Tatiana; Gallo, Carlos; Cruden, Gracelyn; Brown, C Hendricks

2016-01-01

Mediation analysis often requires larger sample sizes than main effect analysis to achieve the same statistical power. Combining results across similar trials may be the only practical option for increasing statistical power for mediation analysis in some situations. In this paper, we propose a method to estimate: 1) marginal means for mediation path a, the relation of the independent variable to the mediator; 2) marginal means for path b, the relation of the mediator to the outcome, across multiple trials; and 3) the between-trial level variance-covariance matrix based on a bivariate normal distribution. We present the statistical theory and an R computer program to combine regression coefficients from multiple trials to estimate a combined mediated effect and confidence interval under a random effects model. Values of coefficients a and b, along with their standard errors from each trial are the input for the method. This marginal likelihood based approach with Monte Carlo confidence intervals provides more accurate inference than the standard meta-analytic approach. We discuss computational issues, apply the method to two real-data examples and make recommendations for the use of the method in different settings. PMID:28239330

Short (≤ 1 mm) positive surgical margin and risk of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Shikanov, Sergey; Marchetti, Pablo; Desai, Vikas; Razmaria, Aria; Antic, Tatjana; Al-Ahmadie, Hikmat; Zagaja, Gregory; Eggener, Scott; Brendler, Charles; Shalhav, Arieh

2013-04-01

WHAT'S KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT? AND WHAT DOES THE STUDY ADD?: It has been suggested that a very short positive margin does not confer additional risk of BCR after radical prostatectomy. This study shows that even very short PSM is associated with increased risk of BCR. To re-evaluate, in a larger cohort with longer follow-up, our previously reported finding that a positive surgical margin (PSM) ≤ 1 mm may not confer an additional risk for biochemical recurrence (BCR) compared with a negative surgical margin (NSM). Margin status and length were evaluated in 2866 men treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) for clinically localized prostate cancer at our institution from 1994 to 2009. We compared the BCR-free survival probability of men with NSMs, a PSM ≤ 1 mm, and a PSM < 1 mm using the Kaplan-Meier method and a Cox regression model adjusted for preoperative prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, pathological stage and pathological Gleason score (GS). Compared with a NSM, a PSM ≤ 1 mm was associated with 17% lower 3-year BCR-free survival for men with pT3 and GS ≥ 7 tumours and a 6% lower 3-year BCR-free survival for men with pT2 and GS ≤ 6 tumours (log-rank P < 0.001 for all). In the multivariate model, a PSM ≤ 1 mm was associated with a probability of BCR twice as high as that for a NSM (hazard ratio [HR] 2.2), as were a higher PSA level (HR 1.04), higher pathological stage (HR 2.7) and higher pathological GS (HR 3.7 [all P < 0.001]). In men with non-organ-confined or high grade prostate cancer, a PSM ≤ 1 mm has a significant adverse impact on BCR rates. © 2012 The Authors. BJU International © 2012 BJU International.

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dean, Jamie A., E-mail: jamie.dean@icr.ac.uk; Wong, Kee H.; Gay, Hiram

Purpose: Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue–sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation. Methods and Materials: FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogrammore » data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares–logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component–logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate–response associations, assessed using bootstrapping. Results: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/−0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/−0.96, 0.79/−0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models. Conclusions: FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling.« less

Functional Data Analysis Applied to Modeling of Severe Acute Mucositis and Dysphagia Resulting From Head and Neck Radiation Therapy.

PubMed

Dean, Jamie A; Wong, Kee H; Gay, Hiram; Welsh, Liam C; Jones, Ann-Britt; Schick, Ulrike; Oh, Jung Hun; Apte, Aditya; Newbold, Kate L; Bhide, Shreerang A; Harrington, Kevin J; Deasy, Joseph O; Nutting, Christopher M; Gulliford, Sarah L

2016-11-15

Current normal tissue complication probability modeling using logistic regression suffers from bias and high uncertainty in the presence of highly correlated radiation therapy (RT) dose data. This hinders robust estimates of dose-response associations and, hence, optimal normal tissue-sparing strategies from being elucidated. Using functional data analysis (FDA) to reduce the dimensionality of the dose data could overcome this limitation. FDA was applied to modeling of severe acute mucositis and dysphagia resulting from head and neck RT. Functional partial least squares regression (FPLS) and functional principal component analysis were used for dimensionality reduction of the dose-volume histogram data. The reduced dose data were input into functional logistic regression models (functional partial least squares-logistic regression [FPLS-LR] and functional principal component-logistic regression [FPC-LR]) along with clinical data. This approach was compared with penalized logistic regression (PLR) in terms of predictive performance and the significance of treatment covariate-response associations, assessed using bootstrapping. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models was 0.65, 0.69, and 0.67, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 0.81, 0.83, and 0.83, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The calibration slopes/intercepts for the PLR, FPC-LR, and FPLS-LR models were 1.6/-0.67, 0.45/0.47, and 0.40/0.49, respectively, for mucositis (internal validation) and 2.5/-0.96, 0.79/-0.04, and 0.79/0.00, respectively, for dysphagia (external validation). The bootstrapped odds ratios indicated significant associations between RT dose and severe toxicity in the mucositis and dysphagia FDA models. Cisplatin was significantly associated with severe dysphagia in the FDA models. None of the covariates was significantly associated with severe toxicity in the PLR models. Dose levels greater than approximately 1.0 Gy/fraction were most strongly associated with severe acute mucositis and dysphagia in the FDA models. FPLS and functional principal component analysis marginally improved predictive performance compared with PLR and provided robust dose-response associations. FDA is recommended for use in normal tissue complication probability modeling. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Sediment Thickness on Vanished Ocean Crust Since 200 Ma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dutkiewicz, A.; Müller, R. D.; Wang, X.; O'Callaghan, S.; Cannon, J.; Wright, N. M.

2017-12-01

Tracing sedimentation through time on existing and vanished seafloor is imperative for constraining long-term eustasy and for calculating volumes of subducted deep-sea sediments that contribute to global geochemical cycles. We present regression algorithms that incorporate the age of the ocean crust and the mean distance to the nearest passive margin to predict sediment thicknesses and long-term decompacted sedimentation rates since 200 Ma. The mean sediment thickness decreases from ˜220 m at 200 Ma to a minimum of ˜140 m at 130 Ma, reflecting the replacement of old Panthalassic ocean floor with young sediment-poor mid-ocean ridges, followed by an increase to ˜365 m at present-day. This increase reflects the accumulation of sediments on ageing abyssal plains proximal to passive margins, coupled with a decrease in the mean distance of any parcel of ocean crust to the nearest passive margin by over 700 km, and a doubling of the total passive margin length at present-day. Mean long-term sedimentation rates increase from ˜0.5 cm/ky at 160 Ma to over 0.8 cm/ky today, caused by enhanced terrigenous sediment influx along lengthened passive margins, superimposed by the onset of ocean-wide carbonate sedimentation. Our predictive algorithms, coupled to a plate tectonic model, provide a framework for constraining the seafloor sediment-driven eustatic sea-level component, which has grown from ˜80 to 210 m since 120 Ma. This implies a long-term sea-level rise component of 130 m, partly counteracting the contemporaneous increase in ocean basin depth due to progressive crustal ageing.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rottmann, J; Berbeco, R; Keall, P

Purpose: To maximize normal tissue sparing for treatments requiring motion encompassing margins. Motion mitigation techniques including DMLC or couch tracking can freeze tumor motion within the treatment aperture potentially allowing for smaller treatment margins and thus better sparing of normal tissue. To enable for a safe application of this concept in the clinic we propose adapting margins dynamically in real-time during radiotherapy delivery based on personalized tumor localization confidence. To demonstrate technical feasibility we present a phantom study. Methods: We utilize a realistic anthropomorphic dynamic thorax phantom with a lung tumor model embedded close to the spine. The tumor, amore » 3D-printout of a patient's GTV, is moved 15mm peak-to-peak by diaphragm compression and monitored by continuous EPID imaging in real-time. Two treatment apertures are created for each beam, one representing ITV -based and the other GTV-based margin expansion. A soft tissue localization (STiL) algorithm utilizing the continuous EPID images is employed to freeze tumor motion within the treatment aperture by means of DMLC tracking. Depending on a tracking confidence measure (TCM), the treatment aperture is adjusted between the ITV and the GTV leaf. Results: We successfully demonstrate real-time personalized margin adjustment in a phantom study. We measured a system latency of about 250 ms which we compensated by utilizing a respiratory motion prediction algorithm (ridge regression). With prediction in place we observe tracking accuracies better than 1mm. For TCM=0 (as during startup) an ITV-based treatment aperture is chosen, for TCM=1 a GTV-based aperture and for 0« less

Item Response Theory Modeling of the Philadelphia Naming Test.

PubMed

Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Kellough, Stacey; Hula, William D

2015-06-01

In this study, we investigated the fit of the Philadelphia Naming Test (PNT; Roach, Schwartz, Martin, Grewal, & Brecher, 1996) to an item-response-theory measurement model, estimated the precision of the resulting scores and item parameters, and provided a theoretical rationale for the interpretation of PNT overall scores by relating explanatory variables to item difficulty. This article describes the statistical model underlying the computer adaptive PNT presented in a companion article (Hula, Kellough, & Fergadiotis, 2015). Using archival data, we evaluated the fit of the PNT to 1- and 2-parameter logistic models and examined the precision of the resulting parameter estimates. We regressed the item difficulty estimates on three predictor variables: word length, age of acquisition, and contextual diversity. The 2-parameter logistic model demonstrated marginally better fit, but the fit of the 1-parameter logistic model was adequate. Precision was excellent for both person ability and item difficulty estimates. Word length, age of acquisition, and contextual diversity all independently contributed to variance in item difficulty. Item-response-theory methods can be productively used to analyze and quantify anomia severity in aphasia. Regression of item difficulty on lexical variables supported the validity of the PNT and interpretation of anomia severity scores in the context of current word-finding models.

Impact of communities, health, and emotional-related factors on smoking use: comparison of joint modeling of mean and dispersion and Bayes' hierarchical models on add health survey.

PubMed

Pu, Jie; Fang, Di; Wilson, Jeffrey R

2017-02-03

The analysis of correlated binary data is commonly addressed through the use of conditional models with random effects included in the systematic component as opposed to generalized estimating equations (GEE) models that addressed the random component. Since the joint distribution of the observations is usually unknown, the conditional distribution is a natural approach. Our objective was to compare the fit of different binary models for correlated data in Tabaco use. We advocate that the joint modeling of the mean and dispersion may be at times just as adequate. We assessed the ability of these models to account for the intraclass correlation. In so doing, we concentrated on fitting logistic regression models to address smoking behaviors. Frequentist and Bayes' hierarchical models were used to predict conditional probabilities, and the joint modeling (GLM and GAM) models were used to predict marginal probabilities. These models were fitted to National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) data for Tabaco use. We found that people were less likely to smoke if they had higher income, high school or higher education and religious. Individuals were more likely to smoke if they had abused drug or alcohol, spent more time on TV and video games, and been arrested. Moreover, individuals who drank alcohol early in life were more likely to be a regular smoker. Children who experienced mistreatment from their parents were more likely to use Tabaco regularly. The joint modeling of the mean and dispersion models offered a flexible and meaningful method of addressing the intraclass correlation. They do not require one to identify random effects nor distinguish from one level of the hierarchy to the other. Moreover, once one can identify the significant random effects, one can obtain similar results to the random coefficient models. We found that the set of marginal models accounting for extravariation through the additional dispersion submodel produced similar results with regards to inferences and predictions. Moreover, both marginal and conditional models demonstrated similar predictive power.

A Comparative Investigation of the Combined Effects of Pre-Processing, Wavelength Selection, and Regression Methods on Near-Infrared Calibration Model Performance.

PubMed

Wan, Jian; Chen, Yi-Chieh; Morris, A Julian; Thennadil, Suresh N

2017-07-01

Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is being widely used in various fields ranging from pharmaceutics to the food industry for analyzing chemical and physical properties of the substances concerned. Its advantages over other analytical techniques include available physical interpretation of spectral data, nondestructive nature and high speed of measurements, and little or no need for sample preparation. The successful application of NIR spectroscopy relies on three main aspects: pre-processing of spectral data to eliminate nonlinear variations due to temperature, light scattering effects and many others, selection of those wavelengths that contribute useful information, and identification of suitable calibration models using linear/nonlinear regression . Several methods have been developed for each of these three aspects and many comparative studies of different methods exist for an individual aspect or some combinations. However, there is still a lack of comparative studies for the interactions among these three aspects, which can shed light on what role each aspect plays in the calibration and how to combine various methods of each aspect together to obtain the best calibration model. This paper aims to provide such a comparative study based on four benchmark data sets using three typical pre-processing methods, namely, orthogonal signal correction (OSC), extended multiplicative signal correction (EMSC) and optical path-length estimation and correction (OPLEC); two existing wavelength selection methods, namely, stepwise forward selection (SFS) and genetic algorithm optimization combined with partial least squares regression for spectral data (GAPLSSP); four popular regression methods, namely, partial least squares (PLS), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and Gaussian process regression (GPR). The comparative study indicates that, in general, pre-processing of spectral data can play a significant role in the calibration while wavelength selection plays a marginal role and the combination of certain pre-processing, wavelength selection, and nonlinear regression methods can achieve superior performance over traditional linear regression-based calibration.

Sparse kernel methods for high-dimensional survival data.

PubMed

Evers, Ludger; Messow, Claudia-Martina

2008-07-15

Sparse kernel methods like support vector machines (SVM) have been applied with great success to classification and (standard) regression settings. Existing support vector classification and regression techniques however are not suitable for partly censored survival data, which are typically analysed using Cox's proportional hazards model. As the partial likelihood of the proportional hazards model only depends on the covariates through inner products, it can be 'kernelized'. The kernelized proportional hazards model however yields a solution that is dense, i.e. the solution depends on all observations. One of the key features of an SVM is that it yields a sparse solution, depending only on a small fraction of the training data. We propose two methods. One is based on a geometric idea, where-akin to support vector classification-the margin between the failed observation and the observations currently at risk is maximised. The other approach is based on obtaining a sparse model by adding observations one after another akin to the Import Vector Machine (IVM). Data examples studied suggest that both methods can outperform competing approaches. Software is available under the GNU Public License as an R package and can be obtained from the first author's website http://www.maths.bris.ac.uk/~maxle/software.html.

Incidence of Changes in Respiration-Induced Tumor Motion and Its Relationship With Respiratory Surrogates During Individual Treatment Fractions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Malinowski, Kathleen; Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD; McAvoy, Thomas J.

2012-04-01

Purpose: To determine how frequently (1) tumor motion and (2) the spatial relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate markers change during a treatment fraction in lung and pancreas cancer patients. Methods and Materials: A Cyberknife Synchrony system radiographically localized the tumor and simultaneously tracked three respiratory surrogate markers fixed to a form-fitting vest. Data in 55 lung and 29 pancreas fractions were divided into successive 10-min blocks. Mean tumor positions and tumor position distributions were compared across 10-min blocks of data. Treatment margins were calculated from both 10 and 30 min of data. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models ofmore » tumor positions as a function of external surrogate marker positions were created from the first 10 min of data in each fraction; the incidence of significant PLS model degradation was used to assess changes in the spatial relationship between tumors and surrogate markers. Results: The absolute change in mean tumor position from first to third 10-min blocks was >5 mm in 13% and 7% of lung and pancreas cases, respectively. Superior-inferior and medial-lateral differences in mean tumor position were significantly associated with the lobe of lung. In 61% and 54% of lung and pancreas fractions, respectively, margins calculated from 30 min of data were larger than margins calculated from 10 min of data. The change in treatment margin magnitude for superior-inferior motion was >1 mm in 42% of lung and 45% of pancreas fractions. Significantly increasing tumor position prediction model error (mean {+-} standard deviation rates of change of 1.6 {+-} 2.5 mm per 10 min) over 30 min indicated tumor-surrogate relationship changes in 63% of fractions. Conclusions: Both tumor motion and the relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate displacements change in most treatment fractions for patient in-room time of 30 min.« less

Incidence of changes in respiration-induced tumor motion and its relationship with respiratory surrogates during individual treatment fractions.

PubMed

Malinowski, Kathleen; McAvoy, Thomas J; George, Rohini; Dietrich, Sonja; D'Souza, Warren D

2012-04-01

To determine how frequently (1) tumor motion and (2) the spatial relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate markers change during a treatment fraction in lung and pancreas cancer patients. A Cyberknife Synchrony system radiographically localized the tumor and simultaneously tracked three respiratory surrogate markers fixed to a form-fitting vest. Data in 55 lung and 29 pancreas fractions were divided into successive 10-min blocks. Mean tumor positions and tumor position distributions were compared across 10-min blocks of data. Treatment margins were calculated from both 10 and 30 min of data. Partial least squares (PLS) regression models of tumor positions as a function of external surrogate marker positions were created from the first 10 min of data in each fraction; the incidence of significant PLS model degradation was used to assess changes in the spatial relationship between tumors and surrogate markers. The absolute change in mean tumor position from first to third 10-min blocks was >5 mm in 13% and 7% of lung and pancreas cases, respectively. Superior-inferior and medial-lateral differences in mean tumor position were significantly associated with the lobe of lung. In 61% and 54% of lung and pancreas fractions, respectively, margins calculated from 30 min of data were larger than margins calculated from 10 min of data. The change in treatment margin magnitude for superior-inferior motion was >1 mm in 42% of lung and 45% of pancreas fractions. Significantly increasing tumor position prediction model error (mean ± standard deviation rates of change of 1.6 ± 2.5 mm per 10 min) over 30 min indicated tumor-surrogate relationship changes in 63% of fractions. Both tumor motion and the relationship between tumor and respiratory surrogate displacements change in most treatment fractions for patient in-room time of 30 min. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

How would mental health parity affect the marginal price of care?

PubMed Central

Zuvekas, S H; Banthin, J S; Selden, T M

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the impact of parity in mental health benefits on the marginal prices that consumers face for mental health treatment. DATA SOURCES/DATA COLLECTION: We used detailed information on health plan benefits for a nationally representative sample of the privately insured population under age 65 taken from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey (Edwards and Berlin 1989). The survey was carefully aged and reweighted to represent 1995 population and coverage characteristics. STUDY DESIGN: We computed marginal out-of-pocket costs from the cost-sharing benefits described by policy booklets under current coverage and under parity for various mental health treatment expenditure levels using the MEDSIM health care microsimulation model developed by researchers at the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. Descriptive analyses and two-limit Tobit regression models are used to examine how insurance generosity varies across individuals by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Our analyses are limited to a description of how parity would change the marginal incentives faced by consumers under their existing plan's cost-sharing arrangements for mental and physical health care. We do not attempt to simulate how parity might affect the level of benefits, including whether benefits are offered at all, or the level of managed care that affects the actual benefits that plan members receive. Rather, we focus only on the nominal benefits described in their policy booklets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our results show that as of 1995 parity coverage would substantially reduce the share of mental health expenditures that consumers would pay at the margin under their existing plan's cost-sharing provisions, with larger changes for outpatient care than for inpatient care. Because current mental health coverage generally becomes less generous as expenditures rise, while coverage for other medical care becomes more generous (due to stop-loss provisions), the difference in incentives between current mental health coverage and the assumed parity coverage widens as total expenditure grows. We also find that the impact of parity on marginal incentives would vary greatly across the privately insured population. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the large variation in the impact of parity on marginal incentives across the population under current plan cost-sharing arrangements, changes in the demand for mental health treatment will likely also vary across the population. PMID:11221816

Does transport time help explain the high trauma mortality rates in rural areas? New and traditional predictors assessed by new and traditional statistical methods

PubMed Central

Røislien, Jo; Lossius, Hans Morten; Kristiansen, Thomas

2015-01-01

Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death. Trauma mortality rates are higher in rural areas, constituting a challenge for quality and equality in trauma care. The aim of the study was to explore population density and transport time to hospital care as possible predictors of geographical differences in mortality rates, and to what extent choice of statistical method might affect the analytical results and accompanying clinical conclusions. Methods Using data from the Norwegian Cause of Death registry, deaths from external causes 1998–2007 were analysed. Norway consists of 434 municipalities, and municipality population density and travel time to hospital care were entered as predictors of municipality mortality rates in univariate and multiple regression models of increasing model complexity. We fitted linear regression models with continuous and categorised predictors, as well as piecewise linear and generalised additive models (GAMs). Models were compared using Akaike's information criterion (AIC). Results Population density was an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates, while the contribution of transport time to hospital care was highly dependent on choice of statistical model. A multiple GAM or piecewise linear model was superior, and similar, in terms of AIC. However, while transport time was statistically significant in multiple models with piecewise linear or categorised predictors, it was not in GAM or standard linear regression. Conclusions Population density is an independent predictor of trauma mortality rates. The added explanatory value of transport time to hospital care is marginal and model-dependent, highlighting the importance of exploring several statistical models when studying complex associations in observational data. PMID:25972600

Doubly Robust Additive Hazards Models to Estimate Effects of a Continuous Exposure on Survival.

PubMed

Wang, Yan; Lee, Mihye; Liu, Pengfei; Shi, Liuhua; Yu, Zhi; Abu Awad, Yara; Zanobetti, Antonella; Schwartz, Joel D

2017-11-01

The effect of an exposure on survival can be biased when the regression model is misspecified. Hazard difference is easier to use in risk assessment than hazard ratio and has a clearer interpretation in the assessment of effect modifications. We proposed two doubly robust additive hazards models to estimate the causal hazard difference of a continuous exposure on survival. The first model is an inverse probability-weighted additive hazards regression. The second model is an extension of the doubly robust estimator for binary exposures by categorizing the continuous exposure. We compared these with the marginal structural model and outcome regression with correct and incorrect model specifications using simulations. We applied doubly robust additive hazard models to the estimation of hazard difference of long-term exposure to PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns) on survival using a large cohort of 13 million older adults residing in seven states of the Southeastern United States. We showed that the proposed approaches are doubly robust. We found that each 1 μg m increase in annual PM2.5 exposure was associated with a causal hazard difference in mortality of 8.0 × 10 (95% confidence interval 7.4 × 10, 8.7 × 10), which was modified by age, medical history, socioeconomic status, and urbanicity. The overall hazard difference translates to approximately 5.5 (5.1, 6.0) thousand deaths per year in the study population. The proposed approaches improve the robustness of the additive hazards model and produce a novel additive causal estimate of PM2.5 on survival and several additive effect modifications, including social inequality.

Statistical Validation of Surrogate Endpoints: Another Look at the Prentice Criterion and Other Criteria.

PubMed

Saraf, Sanatan; Mathew, Thomas; Roy, Anindya

2015-01-01

For the statistical validation of surrogate endpoints, an alternative formulation is proposed for testing Prentice's fourth criterion, under a bivariate normal model. In such a setup, the criterion involves inference concerning an appropriate regression parameter, and the criterion holds if the regression parameter is zero. Testing such a null hypothesis has been criticized in the literature since it can only be used to reject a poor surrogate, and not to validate a good surrogate. In order to circumvent this, an equivalence hypothesis is formulated for the regression parameter, namely the hypothesis that the parameter is equivalent to zero. Such an equivalence hypothesis is formulated as an alternative hypothesis, so that the surrogate endpoint is statistically validated when the null hypothesis is rejected. Confidence intervals for the regression parameter and tests for the equivalence hypothesis are proposed using bootstrap methods and small sample asymptotics, and their performances are numerically evaluated and recommendations are made. The choice of the equivalence margin is a regulatory issue that needs to be addressed. The proposed equivalence testing formulation is also adopted for other parameters that have been proposed in the literature on surrogate endpoint validation, namely, the relative effect and proportion explained.

A mixed-effects regression model for longitudinal multivariate ordinal data.

PubMed

Liu, Li C; Hedeker, Donald

2006-03-01

A mixed-effects item response theory model that allows for three-level multivariate ordinal outcomes and accommodates multiple random subject effects is proposed for analysis of multivariate ordinal outcomes in longitudinal studies. This model allows for the estimation of different item factor loadings (item discrimination parameters) for the multiple outcomes. The covariates in the model do not have to follow the proportional odds assumption and can be at any level. Assuming either a probit or logistic response function, maximum marginal likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing multidimensional Gauss-Hermite quadrature for integration of the random effects. An iterative Fisher scoring solution, which provides standard errors for all model parameters, is used. An analysis of a longitudinal substance use data set, where four items of substance use behavior (cigarette use, alcohol use, marijuana use, and getting drunk or high) are repeatedly measured over time, is used to illustrate application of the proposed model.

Longitudinal analysis of pulmonary dysfunction in the initial years of employment in the grain industry.

PubMed

Olfert, S M; Pahwa, P; Dosman, J A

2005-11-01

The negative health effects of exposure to grain dust have previously been examined, but few studies have observed the effects on newly hired employees. Young grain workers are of interest because changes in pulmonary function may occur after a short duration of employment, and because older grain workers may represent a survivor population. The New Grain Workers Study (NGWS), a longitudinal study of 299 newly hired male grain industry workers, was conducted between 1980 and 1985. The objectives were to determine the effects of employment in the grain industry on pulmonary function. Pre-employment physical examinations and pulmonary function tests were conducted on subjects at the Division of Respiratory Medicine, Department of Medicine, Royal University Hospital, University of Saskatchewan. The Grain Dust Medical Surveillance Program (GDMSP) was a Labour Canada program that began in 1978. All subjects were grain workers employed in the grain industry in Saskatchewan. All subjects completed a respiratory symptoms questionnaire and underwent pulmonary function testing. Baseline observations were recorded every three years between 1978 and 1993. Data were available on 2184 grain workers. Generalized estimating equations were used to fit marginal and transitional multivariable regression models to determine the effects of grain dust exposure on pulmonary function. Marginal and transitional models were then compared. Height, exposure weeks, and previous FVC were predictive of FVC in the NGWS, while exposure weeks and previous FEV1 were predictive of FEV1. These models, as well as a transitional regression model built using the GDMSP data, were used to compute predicted mean annual decline inpulmonary function. Non-smoking grain workers in the NGWS had the highest pulmonary function test values, but also had the greatest predicted annual decline in pulmonary function. Ever-smoking grain workers in the GDMSP had the lowest pulmonary function test values. Non-smoking grain workers in the GDMSP had the least predicted annual decline in pulmonary function.

ANALYSIS OF OIL-BEARING CRETACEOUS SANDSTONE HYDROCARBON RESERVOIRS, EXCLUSIVE OF THE DAKOTA SANDSTONE, ON THE JICARILLA APACHE INDIAN RESERVATION, NEW MEXICO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jennie Ridgley

2000-01-21

An additional 450 wells were added to the structural database; there are now 2550 wells in the database with corrected tops on the Juana Lopez, base of the Bridge Creek Limestone, and datum. This completes the structural data base compilation. Fifteen oil and five gas fields from the Mancos-ElVado interval were evaluated with respect to the newly defined sequence stratigraphic model for this interval. The five gas fields are located away from the structural margins of the deep part of the San Juan Basin. All the fields have characteristics of basin-centered gas and can be considered as continuous gas accumulationsmore » as recently defined by the U.S. Geological Survey. Oil production occurs in thinly interbedded sandstone and shale or in discrete sandstone bodies. Production is both from transgressive and regressive strata as redefined in this study. Oil production is both stratigraphically and structurally controlled with production occurring along the Chaco slope or in steeply west-dipping rocks along the east margin of the basin. The ElVado Sandstone of subsurface usage is redefined to encompass a narrower interval; it appears to be more time correlative with the Dalton Sandstone. Thus, it was deposited as part of a regressive sequence, in contrast to the underlying rock units which were deposited during transgression.« less

Computerized margin and texture analyses for differentiating bacterial pneumonia and invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma presenting as consolidation.

PubMed

Koo, Hyun Jung; Kim, Mi Young; Koo, Ja Hwan; Sung, Yu Sub; Jung, Jiwon; Kim, Sung-Han; Choi, Chang-Min; Kim, Hwa Jung

2017-01-01

Radiologists have used margin characteristics based on routine visual analysis; however, the attenuation changes at the margin of the lesion on CT images have not been quantitatively assessed. We established a CT-based margin analysis method by comparing a target lesion with normal lung attenuation, drawing a slope to represent the attenuation changes. This approach was applied to patients with invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma (n = 40) or bacterial pneumonia (n = 30). Correlations among multiple regions of interest (ROIs) were obtained using intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) values. CT visual assessment, margin and texture parameters were compared for differentiating the two disease entities. The attenuation and margin parameters in multiple ROIs showed excellent ICC values. Attenuation slopes obtained at the margins revealed a difference between invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma and pneumonia (P<0.001), and mucinous adenocarcinoma produced a sharply declining attenuation slope. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, pneumonia had an ill-defined margin (odds ratio (OR), 4.84; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-18.52; P = 0.02), ground-glass opacity (OR, 8.55; 95% CI, 2.09-34.95; P = 0.003), and gradually declining attenuation at the margin (OR, 12.63; 95% CI, 2.77-57.51, P = 0.001). CT-based margin analysis method has a potential to act as an imaging parameter for differentiating invasive mucinous adenocarcinoma and bacterial pneumonia.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

Sequence stratigraphy of the Kingak Shale (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous), National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Houseknecht, D.W.; Bird, K.J.

2004-01-01

Beaufortian strata (Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous) in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA) are a focus of exploration since the 1994 discovery of the nearby Alpine oil field (>400 MMBO). These strata include the Kingak Shale, a succession of depositional sequences influenced by rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. Interpretation of sequence stratigraphy and depositional facies from a regional two-dimensional seismic grid and well data allows the definition of four sequence sets that each displays unique stratal geometries and thickness trends across NPRA. A Lower to Middle Jurassic sequence set includes numerous transgressive-regressive sequences that collectively built a clastic shelf in north-central NPRA. Along the south-facing, lobate shelf margin, condensed shales in transgressive systems tracts downlap and coalesce into a basinal condensed section that is likely an important hydrocarbon source rock. An Oxfordian-Kimmeridgian sequence set, deposited during pulses of uplift on the Barrow arch, includes multiple transgressive-regressive sequences that locally contain well-winnowed, shoreface sandstones at the base of transgressive systems tracts. These shoreface sandstones and overlying shales, deposited during maximum flooding, form stratigraphic traps that are the main objective of exploration in the Alpine play in NPRA. A Valanginian sequence set includes at least two transgressive-regressive sequences that display relatively distal characteristics, suggesting high relative sea level. An important exception is the presence of a basal transgressive systems tract that locally contains shoreface sandstones of reservoir quality. A Hauterivian sequence set includes two transgressive-regressive sequences that constitute a shelf-margin wedge developed as the result of tectonic uplift along the Barrow arch during rift opening of the Arctic Ocean Basin. This sequence set displays stratal geometries suggesting incision and synsedimentary collapse of the shelf margin. ?? 2004. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.

Management involvement on the board of directors and hospital financial performance.

PubMed

Collum, Taleah; Menachemi, Nir; Kilgore, Meredith; Weech-Maldonado, Robert

2014-01-01

Agency theory is used to investigate the relationship between top management team involvement on not-for-profit hospitals' boards of directors (BODs) and hospital financial performance. Governance data collected in 2011 by The Governance Institute was merged with hospital financial performance data from the 2011 Medicare Cost Reports. Then, an ordinary least squares regression model, using propensity score adjustments, was used to evaluate the relationship between management involvement on the BOD and three financial performance profitability ratios: total margin, operating margin, and return on assets. The sample included 637 not-for-profit hospitals, most of which (74.1%) were not government owned. As hypothesized, we found that having a larger number of managers with voting rights on the BOD was associated with lower total margin (β = -0.011, p < .065). Similarly, we found that having a greater percentage of voting BOD members who were managers was associated with lower total margin (β = -0.296, p < .002) and return on assets (β = -0.337, p < .072). We did not find support for the notion that CEO involvement onthe BOD is associated with poorer hospital financial performance (β = -0.008, p < .437). Consistent with agency theory, our findings suggest that management involvement on the BOD is associated with poorer hospital financial performance. This finding suggests that management involvement on the BOD may impair the BOD's ability to effectively monitor the actions of management, which may lead managers to make decisions that are more consistent with their own interests than those of the organization.

Estimating inverse probability weights using super learner when weight-model specification is unknown in a marginal structural Cox model context.

PubMed

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Platt, Robert W

2017-06-15

Correct specification of the inverse probability weighting (IPW) model is necessary for consistent inference from a marginal structural Cox model (MSCM). In practical applications, researchers are typically unaware of the true specification of the weight model. Nonetheless, IPWs are commonly estimated using parametric models, such as the main-effects logistic regression model. In practice, assumptions underlying such models may not hold and data-adaptive statistical learning methods may provide an alternative. Many candidate statistical learning approaches are available in the literature. However, the optimal approach for a given dataset is impossible to predict. Super learner (SL) has been proposed as a tool for selecting an optimal learner from a set of candidates using cross-validation. In this study, we evaluate the usefulness of a SL in estimating IPW in four different MSCM simulation scenarios, in which we varied the specification of the true weight model specification (linear and/or additive). Our simulations show that, in the presence of weight model misspecification, with a rich and diverse set of candidate algorithms, SL can generally offer a better alternative to the commonly used statistical learning approaches in terms of MSE as well as the coverage probabilities of the estimated effect in an MSCM. The findings from the simulation studies guided the application of the MSCM in a multiple sclerosis cohort from British Columbia, Canada (1995-2008), to estimate the impact of beta-interferon treatment in delaying disability progression. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Six-year clinical performance of etch-and-rinse and self-etch adhesives.

PubMed

Boushell, Lee W; Heymann, Harald O; Ritter, Andre V; Sturdevant, John R; Swift, Edward J; Wilder, Aldridge D; Chung, Yunro; Lambert, Cynthia A; Walter, Ricardo

2016-09-01

To evaluate the 6-year clinical performance of Xeno IV, Xeno III, and XP Bond adhesives in the restoration of non-carious cervical lesions (NCCLs). This was a randomized controlled clinical trial where 39 participants met the inclusion/exclusion criteria and were enrolled. Lesions restored were notch-shaped NCCLs. Prior to adhesive procedures, NCCLs were roughened. No enamel bevel was placed and no mechanical retention was created. Adhesive systems were applied following manufacturer's instructions and the NCCLs were restored with composite resin (TPH(3)). Restorations were finished immediately after placement and scored with regard to retention, marginal discoloration, marginal adaptation, sensitivity, and secondary caries using modified USPHS criteria. Descriptive statistics were performed. Logistic regression models were performed for each outcome separately with compound symmetry correlation structure where teeth were clustered by participants. All analyses were conducted using SAS 9.2. The 6-year recall rate was 77.5% of the restorations (76.9% of the participants). No statistical differences were found between adhesives for retention, marginal discoloration, and marginal adaptation. Restorations failed by loss of retention (16.7%, 27.6%, and 11.8% of Xeno IV, Xeno III, and XP Bond restorations, respectively) and marginal discoloration (7.4% of Xeno IV restorations). For every unit increase in restoration volume it was 1.31 (95%C.I. 1.05, 1.63, P=0.01) times more likely that the restoration retention would be maintained. The tested adhesive systems presented similar clinical performance after six years of service, with annual failure rates of 2.8%, 4.6%, and 2.0% for Xeno IV, Xeno III, and XP Bond, respectively. Copyright © 2016 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting health care utilization in marginalized populations: Black, female, street-based sex workers.

PubMed

Varga, Leah M; Surratt, Hilary L

2014-01-01

Patterns of social and structural factors experienced by vulnerable populations may negatively affect willingness and ability to seek out health care services, and ultimately, their health. The outcome variable was utilization of health care services in the previous 12 months. Using Andersen's Behavioral Model for Vulnerable Populations, we examined self-reported data on utilization of health care services among a sample of 546 Black, street-based, female sex workers in Miami, Florida. To evaluate the impact of each domain of the model on predicting health care utilization, domains were included in the logistic regression analysis by blocks using the traditional variables first and then adding the vulnerable domain variables. The most consistent variables predicting health care utilization were having a regular source of care and self-rated health. The model that included only enabling variables was the most efficient model in predicting health care utilization. Any type of resource, link, or connection to or with an institution, or any consistent point of care, contributes significantly to health care utilization behaviors. A consistent and reliable source for health care may increase health care utilization and subsequently decrease health disparities among vulnerable and marginalized populations, as well as contribute to public health efforts that encourage preventive health. Copyright © 2014 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of care and outcomes of adjuvant therapy for high-risk head and neck cancer after surgery.

PubMed

Osborn, Virginia Wedell; Givi, Babak; Rineer, Justin; Roden, Dylan; Sheth, Niki; Lederman, Ariel; Katsoulakis, Evangelia; Hu, Kenneth; Schreiber, David

2018-06-01

Postoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is considered standard of care in patients with locally advanced head and neck cancer with positive margins and/or extracapsular extension (ECE). The National Cancer Data Base (NCDB) was queried to identify patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck with stages III to IVB disease or with positive margins and/or ECE diagnosed between 2004 and 2012 receiving postoperative radiotherapy (RT). Using univariable and multivariable logistic and Cox regression, we assessed for predictors of CRT use and covariables impacting overall survival (OS), including in a propensity-matched subset. Of 12 224 patients, 67.1% with positive margins and/or ECE received CRT as well as 54.0% without positive margins and/or ECE. The 5-year OS was 61.6% for RT alone versus 67.4% for CRT. In the propensity-matched cohort, OS benefit persisted with CRT, including in a subset with positive margins and/or ECE but not without. Postoperative CRT seems underutilized with positive margins and/or ECE and overutilized without positive margins and/or ECE. The CRT was associated with improved OS but the benefit persisted only in the subset with positive margins and/or ECE. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data with Examples from Criminology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Long, Jeffrey D.; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P.

2009-01-01

Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides…

Impact of prostate weight on probability of positive surgical margins in patients with low-risk prostate cancer after robotic-assisted laparoscopic radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Marchetti, Pablo E; Shikanov, Sergey; Razmaria, Aria A; Zagaja, Gregory P; Shalhav, Arieh L

2011-03-01

To evaluate the impact of prostate weight (PW) on probability of positive surgical margin (PSM) in patients undergoing robotic-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) for low-risk prostate cancer. The cohort consisted of 690 men with low-risk prostate cancer (clinical stage T1c, prostate-specific antigen <10 ng/mL, biopsy Gleason score ≤6) who underwent RARP with bilateral nerve-sparing at our institution by 1 of 2 surgeons from 2003 to 2009. PW was obtained from the pathologic specimen. The association between probability of PSM and PW was assessed with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. A PSM was identified in 105 patients (15.2%). Patients with PSM had significant higher prostate-specific antigen (P = .04), smaller prostates (P = .0001), higher Gleason score (P = .004), and higher pathologic stage (P < .0001). After logistic regression, we found a significant inverse relation between PSM and PW (OR 0.97%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.96, 0.99; P = .0003) in univariate analysis. This remained significant in the multivariate model (OR 0.98%; 95% CI 0.96, 0.99; P = .006) adjusting for age, body mass index, surgeon experience, pathologic Gleason score, and pathologic stage. In this multivariate model, the predicted probability of PSM for 25-, 50-, 100-, and 150-g prostates were 22% (95% CI 16%, 30%), 13% (95% CI 11%, 16%), 5% (95% CI 1%, 8%), and 1% (95% CI 0%, 3%), respectively. Lower PW is independently associated with higher probability of PSM in low-risk patients undergoing RARP with bilateral nerve-sparing. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatially explicit approach to the study of socio-demographic inequality in the spatial distribution of trees across Boston neighborhoods

PubMed Central

Duncan, Dustin T.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Kum, Susan; Aldstadt, Jared; Piras, Gianfranco; Matthews, Stephen A.; Arbia, Giuseppe; Castro, Marcia C.; White, Kellee; Williams, David R.

2017-01-01

The racial/ethnic and income composition of neighborhoods often influences local amenities, including the potential spatial distribution of trees, which are important for population health and community wellbeing, particularly in urban areas. This ecological study used spatial analytical methods to assess the relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. minority racial/ethnic composition and poverty) and tree density at the census tact level in Boston, Massachusetts (US). We examined spatial autocorrelation with the Global Moran’s I for all study variables and in the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression residuals as well as computed Spearman correlations non-adjusted and adjusted for spatial autocorrelation between socio-demographic characteristics and tree density. Next, we fit traditional regressions (i.e. OLS regression models) and spatial regressions (i.e. spatial simultaneous autoregressive models), as appropriate. We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation for all neighborhood socio-demographic characteristics (Global Moran’s I range from 0.24 to 0.86, all P=0.001), for tree density (Global Moran’s I=0.452, P=0.001), and in the OLS regression residuals (Global Moran’s I range from 0.32 to 0.38, all P<0.001). Therefore, we fit the spatial simultaneous autoregressive models. There was a negative correlation between neighborhood percent non-Hispanic Black and tree density (rS=−0.19; conventional P-value=0.016; spatially adjusted P-value=0.299) as well as a negative correlation between predominantly non-Hispanic Black (over 60% Black) neighborhoods and tree density (rS=−0.18; conventional P-value=0.019; spatially adjusted P-value=0.180). While the conventional OLS regression model found a marginally significant inverse relationship between Black neighborhoods and tree density, we found no statistically significant relationship between neighborhood socio-demographic composition and tree density in the spatial regression models. Methodologically, our study suggests the need to take into account spatial autocorrelation as findings/conclusions can change when the spatial autocorrelation is ignored. Substantively, our findings suggest no need for policy intervention vis-à-vis trees in Boston, though we hasten to add that replication studies, and more nuanced data on tree quality, age and diversity are needed. PMID:29354668

State-level minimum wage and heart disease death rates in the United States, 1980-2015: A novel application of marginal structural modeling.

PubMed

Van Dyke, Miriam E; Komro, Kelli A; Shah, Monica P; Livingston, Melvin D; Kramer, Michael R

2018-07-01

Despite substantial declines since the 1960's, heart disease remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US) and geographic disparities in heart disease mortality have grown. State-level socioeconomic factors might be important contributors to geographic differences in heart disease mortality. This study examined the association between state-level minimum wage increases above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates from 1980 to 2015 among 'working age' individuals aged 35-64 years in the US. Annual, inflation-adjusted state and federal minimum wage data were extracted from legal databases and annual state-level heart disease death rates were obtained from CDC Wonder. Although most minimum wage and health studies to date use conventional regression models, we employed marginal structural models to account for possible time-varying confounding. Quasi-experimental, marginal structural models accounting for state, year, and state × year fixed effects estimated the association between increases in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage and heart disease death rates. In models of 'working age' adults (35-64 years old), a $1 increase in the state-level minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was on average associated with ~6 fewer heart disease deaths per 100,000 (95% CI: -10.4, -1.99), or a state-level heart disease death rate that was 3.5% lower per year. In contrast, for older adults (65+ years old) a $1 increase was on average associated with a 1.1% lower state-level heart disease death rate per year (b = -28.9 per 100,000, 95% CI: -71.1, 13.3). State-level economic policies are important targets for population health research. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach

PubMed Central

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2018-01-01

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach, and has several attractive features compared to the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, since the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. PMID:26303591

Logistically Sustaining Afloat-Staged Special Operations Forces through an LPD-17 Class Single-Ship Seabase

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

simulation are analyzed using regression, statistical and marginal benefit techniques to show how the MOEs are affected by varying levels of the...being supported by the seabase increases. A large marginal benefit is realized in reducing a unit’s frequency and time spent in a balk state by...units. SOF units operate within the range of sea-based helicopter assets; therefore the risk of a ‘ bingo ’ (i.e., near empty) fuel state is nearly

Estimating the impact of mineral aerosols on crop yields in food insecure regions using statistical crop models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, A.; Forest, C. E.; Kemanian, A.

2016-12-01

A significant number of food-insecure nations exist in regions of the world where dust plays a large role in the climate system. While the impacts of common climate variables (e.g. temperature, precipitation, ozone, and carbon dioxide) on crop yields are relatively well understood, the impact of mineral aerosols on yields have not yet been thoroughly investigated. This research aims to develop the data and tools to progress our understanding of mineral aerosol impacts on crop yields. Suspended dust affects crop yields by altering the amount and type of radiation reaching the plant, modifying local temperature and precipitation. While dust events (i.e. dust storms) affect crop yields by depleting the soil of nutrients or by defoliation via particle abrasion. The impact of dust on yields is modeled statistically because we are uncertain which impacts will dominate the response on national and regional scales considered in this study. Multiple linear regression is used in a number of large-scale statistical crop modeling studies to estimate yield responses to various climate variables. In alignment with previous work, we develop linear crop models, but build upon this simple method of regression with machine-learning techniques (e.g. random forests) to identify important statistical predictors and isolate how dust affects yields on the scales of interest. To perform this analysis, we develop a crop-climate dataset for maize, soybean, groundnut, sorghum, rice, and wheat for the regions of West Africa, East Africa, South Africa, and the Sahel. Random forest regression models consistently model historic crop yields better than the linear models. In several instances, the random forest models accurately capture the temperature and precipitation threshold behavior in crops. Additionally, improving agricultural technology has caused a well-documented positive trend that dominates time series of global and regional yields. This trend is often removed before regression with traditional crop models, but likely at the cost of removing climate information. Our random forest models consistently discover the positive trend without removing any additional data. The application of random forests as a statistical crop model provides insight into understanding the impact of dust on yields in marginal food producing regions.

Marginal bone level in two Danish cross-sectional population samples in 1997-1998 and 2007-2008.

PubMed

Bahrami, Golnosh; Vaeth, Michael; Wenzel, Ann; Isidor, Flemming

2018-04-12

The aim of this study was to compare the marginal bone level of two randomly selected population samples from 1997/1998 and 2007/2008, with special emphasis on the role of smoking habits and gender. Two cross-sectional randomly selected population samples [1997/1998 (N = 616) and 2007/2008 (N = 396)] were analysed with respect to the marginal bone level. The marginal bone level was measured in full-mouth intraoral radiographs. Information on smoking was gathered using questionnaires. Multiple regression analysis was used in order to adjust for correlating factors (gender, age, smoking habits and number of teeth). After adjusting for confounding factors, the population sample from 2007/2008 had on average a slightly, but statistically significantly, more reduced average marginal bone level (0.15 mm) than the population sample from 1997/1998. Men had more reduced marginal bone level than women (0.12 mm). Smokers in both population samples had more reduced marginal bone level than non-smokers (0.39 mm and 0.12 mm for 1997/1998; 0.65 mm and 0.16 mm for 2007/2008). In these populations, sampled 10 years apart, the 2007/2008 population sample had a slightly more reduced marginal bone level than the 1997/1998 population sample. Men had more reduced marginal bone level than women, and smoking is considered a major risk factor for a reduced marginal bone level.

Correcting for Measurement Error in Time-Varying Covariates in Marginal Structural Models.

PubMed

Kyle, Ryan P; Moodie, Erica E M; Klein, Marina B; Abrahamowicz, Michał

2016-08-01

Unbiased estimation of causal parameters from marginal structural models (MSMs) requires a fundamental assumption of no unmeasured confounding. Unfortunately, the time-varying covariates used to obtain inverse probability weights are often error-prone. Although substantial measurement error in important confounders is known to undermine control of confounders in conventional unweighted regression models, this issue has received comparatively limited attention in the MSM literature. Here we propose a novel application of the simulation-extrapolation (SIMEX) procedure to address measurement error in time-varying covariates, and we compare 2 approaches. The direct approach to SIMEX-based correction targets outcome model parameters, while the indirect approach corrects the weights estimated using the exposure model. We assess the performance of the proposed methods in simulations under different clinically plausible assumptions. The simulations demonstrate that measurement errors in time-dependent covariates may induce substantial bias in MSM estimators of causal effects of time-varying exposures, and that both proposed SIMEX approaches yield practically unbiased estimates in scenarios featuring low-to-moderate degrees of error. We illustrate the proposed approach in a simple analysis of the relationship between sustained virological response and liver fibrosis progression among persons infected with hepatitis C virus, while accounting for measurement error in γ-glutamyltransferase, using data collected in the Canadian Co-infection Cohort Study from 2003 to 2014. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A corrected formulation for marginal inference derived from two-part mixed models for longitudinal semi-continuous data

PubMed Central

Su, Li; Farewell, Vernon T

2013-01-01

For semi-continuous data which are a mixture of true zeros and continuously distributed positive values, the use of two-part mixed models provides a convenient modelling framework. However, deriving population-averaged (marginal) effects from such models is not always straightforward. Su et al. presented a model that provided convenient estimation of marginal effects for the logistic component of the two-part model but the specification of marginal effects for the continuous part of the model presented in that paper was based on an incorrect formulation. We present a corrected formulation and additionally explore the use of the two-part model for inferences on the overall marginal mean, which may be of more practical relevance in our application and more generally. PMID:24201470

[Trends of cancer mortality rates in children and adolescents by level of marginalization in Mexico (1990-2009)].

PubMed

Escamilla-Santiago, Ricardo Antonio; Narro-Robles, José; Fajardo-Gutiérrez, Arturo; Rascón-Pacheco, Ramón Alberto; López-Cervantes, Malaquías

2012-01-01

To determine childhood and adolescent cancer mortality by the level of marginalization in Mexico. We used 1990-2009 death certificates estimating age-standardized rates. We calculated the Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) using the Joinpoint Regression program available at the National Cancer Institute to assess tendency. Cancer mortality rates increased. AAPC were 0.87% male and 0.96% female children, and for adolescents were: males 1.22% and females 0.63%. The neoplasm pattern in infants was leukemia -central nervous system- lymphomas; and in adolescents it was leukemia -bone and articulation- lymphomas. The increase in cancer mortality corresponded to the high and highest marginated areas of each state. The increase in highly marginated areas may be partly explained by well-documented local registration of deaths. Further studies focusing on survival are required in order to better assess the effectiveness of cancer detection and medical treatment in our country.

Meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes: a marginal beta-binomial model approach.

PubMed

Chen, Yong; Hong, Chuan; Ning, Yang; Su, Xiao

2016-01-15

When conducting a meta-analysis of studies with bivariate binary outcomes, challenges arise when the within-study correlation and between-study heterogeneity should be taken into account. In this paper, we propose a marginal beta-binomial model for the meta-analysis of studies with binary outcomes. This model is based on the composite likelihood approach and has several attractive features compared with the existing models such as bivariate generalized linear mixed model (Chu and Cole, 2006) and Sarmanov beta-binomial model (Chen et al., 2012). The advantages of the proposed marginal model include modeling the probabilities in the original scale, not requiring any transformation of probabilities or any link function, having closed-form expression of likelihood function, and no constraints on the correlation parameter. More importantly, because the marginal beta-binomial model is only based on the marginal distributions, it does not suffer from potential misspecification of the joint distribution of bivariate study-specific probabilities. Such misspecification is difficult to detect and can lead to biased inference using currents methods. We compare the performance of the marginal beta-binomial model with the bivariate generalized linear mixed model and the Sarmanov beta-binomial model by simulation studies. Interestingly, the results show that the marginal beta-binomial model performs better than the Sarmanov beta-binomial model, whether or not the true model is Sarmanov beta-binomial, and the marginal beta-binomial model is more robust than the bivariate generalized linear mixed model under model misspecifications. Two meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy studies and a meta-analysis of case-control studies are conducted for illustration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inter-class sparsity based discriminative least square regression.

PubMed

Wen, Jie; Xu, Yong; Li, Zuoyong; Ma, Zhongli; Xu, Yuanrong

2018-06-01

Least square regression is a very popular supervised classification method. However, two main issues greatly limit its performance. The first one is that it only focuses on fitting the input features to the corresponding output labels while ignoring the correlations among samples. The second one is that the used label matrix, i.e., zero-one label matrix is inappropriate for classification. To solve these problems and improve the performance, this paper presents a novel method, i.e., inter-class sparsity based discriminative least square regression (ICS_DLSR), for multi-class classification. Different from other methods, the proposed method pursues that the transformed samples have a common sparsity structure in each class. For this goal, an inter-class sparsity constraint is introduced to the least square regression model such that the margins of samples from the same class can be greatly reduced while those of samples from different classes can be enlarged. In addition, an error term with row-sparsity constraint is introduced to relax the strict zero-one label matrix, which allows the method to be more flexible in learning the discriminative transformation matrix. These factors encourage the method to learn a more compact and discriminative transformation for regression and thus has the potential to perform better than other methods. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the best performance in comparison with other methods for multi-class classification. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Competing Risk Analysis of Neurologic versus Nonneurologic Death in Patients Undergoing Radiosurgical Salvage After Whole-Brain Radiation Therapy Failure: Who Actually Dies of Their Brain Metastases?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lucas, John T., E-mail: jolucas@wakehealth.edu; Colmer, Hentry G.; White, Lance

Purpose: To estimate the hazard for neurologic (central nervous system, CNS) and nonneurologic (non-CNS) death associated with patient, treatment, and systemic disease status in patients receiving stereotactic radiosurgery after whole-brain radiation therapy (WBRT) failure, using a competing risk model. Patients and Methods: Of 757 patients, 293 experienced recurrence or new metastasis following WBRT. Univariate Cox proportional hazards regression identified covariates for consideration in the multivariate model. Competing risks multivariable regression was performed to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for both CNS and non-CNS death after adjusting for patient, disease, and treatment factors. The resultantmore » model was converted into an online calculator for ease of clinical use. Results: The cumulative incidence of CNS and non-CNS death at 6 and 12 months was 20.6% and 21.6%, and 34.4% and 35%, respectively. Patients with melanoma histology (relative to breast) (aHR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5-5.0), brainstem location (aHR 2.1, 95% CI 1.3-3.5), and number of metastases (aHR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04-1.2) had increased aHR for CNS death. Progressive systemic disease (aHR 0.55, 95% CI 0.4-0.8) and increasing lowest margin dose (aHR 0.97, 95% CI 0.9-0.99) were protective against CNS death. Patients with lung histology (aHR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.9) and progressive systemic disease (aHR 2.14, 95% CI 1.5-3.0) had increased aHR for non-CNS death. Conclusion: Our nomogram provides individual estimates of neurologic death after salvage stereotactic radiosurgery for patients who have failed prior WBRT, based on histology, neuroanatomical location, age, lowest margin dose, and number of metastases after adjusting for their competing risk of death from other causes.« less

Social Determinants of Health Are Associated with Markers of Renal Injury in Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes.

PubMed

Cummings, Laura A M; Clarke, Antoine; Sochett, Etienne; Daneman, Denis; Cherney, David Z; Reich, Heather N; Scholey, James W; Dunger, David B; Mahmud, Farid H

2018-05-08

To examine the relationship between the social determinants of health and markers of early renal injury in adolescent patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). Renal outcomes included estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albumin-creatinine excretion ratio (ACR). Differences in urinary and serum inflammatory markers also were assessed in relation to social determinants of health. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between the Ontario Marginalization Index (ON-Marg) as a measure of the social determinants of health, patient characteristics, ACR, eGFR, and renal filtration status (hyperfiltration vs normofiltration). Participants with T1D (n = 199) with a mean age of 14.4 ± 1.7 years and diabetes duration of 7.2 ± 3.1 years were studied. Mean eGFR was 122.0 ± 19.4 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Increasing marginalization was positively associated with eGFR (P < .0001) but not with ACR (P = .605). Greater marginalization was associated with greater median levels of urinary interleukin (IL)-2, IL-12 (p40), macrophage-derived chemokine, monocyte chemoattractant protein-3, and tumor necrosis factor-β and serum IL-2. ON-Marg was significantly associated with eGFR after we controlled for age, sex, body mass index z score, ethnicity, serum glucose, and hemoglobin A1c in linear regression. A similar association between hyperfiltration and ON-Marg score was observed in multivariable logistic regression. Increasing marginalization is significantly associated with both eGFR and hyperfiltration in adolescents with T1D and is associated with significant changes in urinary inflammatory biomarkers. These findings highlight a potentially important interaction between social and biological determinants of health in adolescents with T1D. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative calculation and numerical modeling of the conjugate margins of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, D.; Pérez-Gussinyé, M.; Wang, W.; Bai, Y.

2017-12-01

South China margin rifted on the tectonic setting of the early active continental margin since Cenozoic. The present South China Sea (SCS) opened at 32 Ma and showed propagation from east to west, with different crustal and sedimentary structures at the conjugate continental margins. Based on the latest high-quality multi-channel seismic data, bathymetric data, and other obtained seismic profiles, the asymmetric characteristics between the conjugate margins of the SCS are revealed. Spatial variation of morphology, basement structure and marginal faults are discovered among the SCS margin profiles. We calculate the lithospheric stretching factors and analyze the anomalous post-rift subsidence from two typical seismic profiles in the conjugate margins of the SCS, with integrated method of 2D forward and inversion based on flexural-cantilever model. We propose a differential extension model to explain the spatial differences in the SCS margins and emphasize the role of detachment fault in evolutionary process. Numerical modeling has a great advantage in studying the rifted margin formation mechanism. Dynamic modeling for the formation of asymmetric conjugate margins of the SCS is carried out by solving the thermal-mechanical equation, based on the viscoelastic-plastic model. The results show that the width and symmetry of the margin are controlled by the crustal rheological structure and sedimentation rate. Crust with lower strength is prone to distributed and persistent faulting instead of strain localization, which results in the wider margin. On the contrary, the stronger crust would generate large faults and lead to strain localization in a small amount of them, easier to form narrow continental margin. Large sediment loading is favorable for the development of large faults, meanwhile, the subsequent thermal effect reduces the crustal viscosity. A sudden transition zone of sedimentation rate is prone to strain localization and accelerates the crust rift, which may affect the future break-up. The numerical modeling with full dynamics in SCS needs a further investigation. Acknowledge: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41476042, 41506055 )

Simple to complex modeling of breathing volume using a motion sensor.

PubMed

John, Dinesh; Staudenmayer, John; Freedson, Patty

2013-06-01

To compare simple and complex modeling techniques to estimate categories of low, medium, and high ventilation (VE) from ActiGraph™ activity counts. Vertical axis ActiGraph™ GT1M activity counts, oxygen consumption and VE were measured during treadmill walking and running, sports, household chores and labor-intensive employment activities. Categories of low (<19.3 l/min), medium (19.3 to 35.4 l/min) and high (>35.4 l/min) VEs were derived from activity intensity classifications (light <2.9 METs, moderate 3.0 to 5.9 METs and vigorous >6.0 METs). We examined the accuracy of two simple techniques (multiple regression and activity count cut-point analyses) and one complex (random forest technique) modeling technique in predicting VE from activity counts. Prediction accuracy of the complex random forest technique was marginally better than the simple multiple regression method. Both techniques accurately predicted VE categories almost 80% of the time. The multiple regression and random forest techniques were more accurate (85 to 88%) in predicting medium VE. Both techniques predicted the high VE (70 to 73%) with greater accuracy than low VE (57 to 60%). Actigraph™ cut-points for light, medium and high VEs were <1381, 1381 to 3660 and >3660 cpm. There were minor differences in prediction accuracy between the multiple regression and the random forest technique. This study provides methods to objectively estimate VE categories using activity monitors that can easily be deployed in the field. Objective estimates of VE should provide a better understanding of the dose-response relationship between internal exposure to pollutants and disease. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A unifying framework for marginalized random intercept models of correlated binary outcomes

PubMed Central

Swihart, Bruce J.; Caffo, Brian S.; Crainiceanu, Ciprian M.

2013-01-01

We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood-based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data with exchangeable correlation structures. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized random intercept models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts. PMID:25342871

Basin analysis of tertiary strata in the Pattani Basin, Gulf of Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chonchawalit, A.; Bustin, R.M.

The stratigraphic and structural evolution of the Pattani basin, the most prolific petroleum basin in Thailand, reflects the extensional tectonics of continental southeast Asia. East-west extension, a product of the northward collision of India with Eurasia since the early Tertiary resulted in the formation of a series of north-south-trending sedimentary basins including the Pattani basin. Subsidence and thermal histories of the basin can generally be accounted for by nonuniform lithospheric stretching. The validity of nonuniform lithospheric stretching as a mechanic for the formation of the Pattani basin is confirmed by a reasonably good agreement between modeled and observed vitrinite reflectancemore » at various depths and locations. The amount of stretching and surface heat flow generally increases from the basin margin to the basin center. Crustal stretching factor ([beta]) ranges from 1.3 at the basin margin to 2.8 in the center. Subcrustal stretching factor ([sigma]) ranges from 1.3 at the margin to more than 3.0 in the center. The stretching of the lithosphere may have extended basement rocks as much as 45 to 90 km and may have caused the upwelling of asthenosphere, resulting in high heat flow. The sedimentary succession in the Pattani basin is divisible into synrift and postrift sequences. The synrift sequences comprise (1) late Eocene ( ) to early Oligocene alluvial fan, braided river, and flood-plain deposits; (2) late Oligocene to early Miocene floodplain and channel deposits; and (3) an early Miocene regressive package of marine to nonmarine sediments. Deposition of synrift sequences corresponded to rifting and extension, which included episodic block faulting and rapid subsidence. Postrift succession comprises (1) an early to middle Miocene regressive package of shallow marine to nonmarine sediments, (2) a late early Miocene transgressive package; and (3) a late Miocene to Pleistocene transgression succession.« less

The impact of hybrid coronary revascularization on hospital costs and reimbursements.

PubMed

Halkos, Michael E; Ford, Lauren; Peterson, Dane; Bluestein, Sheryl M; Liberman, Henry A; Kilgo, Patrick; Puskas, John D; Guyton, Robert A; Chowdhury, Ritam

2014-05-01

Hybrid coronary revascularization (HCR) combines a minimally invasive, left internal mammary artery-left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) bypass with percutaneous intervention of non-LAD vessels for patients with multivessel coronary disease. The financial implications of HCR have not been compared with off-pump coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) through sternotomy. The contribution margin is a fiduciary calculation (best hospital payment estimate--total variable costs) used by hospitals to determine fiscal viability of services. From 2010 to 2011, 26 Medicare patients underwent HCR at a single United States institution and were compared with 28 randomly selected, contemporaneous Medicare patients undergoing multivessel OPCAB. All HCR patients underwent a robotic-assisted, sternal-sparing, off-pump, left internal mammary artery-LAD anastomosis plus percutaneous intervention to non-LAD vessels. A linear regression model was used to compare fiscal and utilization outcomes of HCR to OPCAB adjusted for hospital length of stay and The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score. On regression analysis controlling for overall length of stay and Predicted Risk of Mortality score, the contribution margin (+$8,771, p<0.0001) was greater for HCR than for OPCAB. Despite higher total cost for HCR compared with OPCAB (+$7,026, p=0.001), the total variable cost (+$2,281, p=0.07) was not significantly different. Best payment estimates (+11,031, p<0.0001) and Medicare reimbursements (+$8,992, p=0.002) were higher for HCR than for OPCAB, and there was a reduction in blood transfusion (-1.5 units, p<0.0001), ventilator time (-10 hours, p=0.001), and postoperative length of stay (-1.2 days, p=0.002) for the HCR group. Compared with OPCAB, HCR results in a greater contribution margin for hospitals. This may result from higher reimbursement as well as improved resource utilization postoperatively, which may offset more expensive procedural costs associated with HCR. Copyright © 2014 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Deciphering the history of hydrologic and climatic changes on carbonate lowstand surfaces: calcrete and organic-matter/evaporite facies association on a palimpsest Middle Jurassic landscape from Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azerêdo, Ana C.; Paul Wright, V.; Mendonça-Filho, João; Cristina Cabral, M.; Duarte, Luís V.

2015-06-01

The unusual occurrence of calcretes and prominent organic matter in the Middle Jurassic (Lower Bathonian, Serra de Aire Formation) of the Lusitanian Basin of western Portugal (Western Iberian Margin) revealed a complex palimpsest exposure record, here interpreted as reflecting hydrological changes caused by phases of emergence and immersion. It serves as a potential model for understanding stratigraphic development at lowstand surfaces in carbonate successions. The exposure-dominated facies association grades upwards into peritidal and lagoonal limestones, and the interval is assigned to the regressive peak of a Transgressive-Regressive Facies Cycle (2nd order) of the thick Middle Jurassic carbonate ramp succession. The Galinha Quarry, Fátima region, NE of Lisbon, a type section for this lowstand assemblage, exhibits varied calcretes, with black-clasts, interbedded with, and grading into: organic-rich marly/clayey seams and lenses, locally with carbonate nodules; carbonates with evaporite traces; microbial laminites; black-clast and fenestral limestones; some lithofacies are dolomitized. The palynofacies contains phytoclasts associated with less refractory, more prone to degradation components, which suggests natural combustion/pyrolysis (wild fires). The lowstand surface represents a low relief landscape with small depressions/ponds bordering a more distal marginal-littoral setting; the partly subaerial and partly subaqueous settings were subjected to lengthy exposure and to fluctuating, very shallow water bodies and water table. Coeval climatic regime was a seasonally dry/wet one, with dry/semi-arid phases dominating over the sub-humid, as shown by the combined record of intense calcrete development, rhizogenic structures, microbial mats, brecciation, desiccation, evaporites and wild fire evidence. However, sea level rise caused changes to shallow, sea-water influenced restricted lagoonal-peritidal settings. Comparisons and differences with modern and ancient coast marginal carbonates are made to provide a guide to the variability in such lowstand deposystems in the stratigraphic record.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic tests accounting for disease prevalence: a new model using trivariate copulas.

PubMed

Hoyer, A; Kuss, O

2015-05-20

In real life and somewhat contrary to biostatistical textbook knowledge, sensitivity and specificity (and not only predictive values) of diagnostic tests can vary with the underlying prevalence of disease. In meta-analysis of diagnostic studies, accounting for this fact naturally leads to a trivariate expansion of the traditional bivariate logistic regression model with random study effects. In this paper, a new model is proposed using trivariate copulas and beta-binomial marginal distributions for sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence as an expansion of the bivariate model. Two different copulas are used, the trivariate Gaussian copula and a trivariate vine copula based on the bivariate Plackett copula. This model has a closed-form likelihood, so standard software (e.g., SAS PROC NLMIXED) can be used. The results of a simulation study have shown that the copula models perform at least as good but frequently better than the standard model. The methods are illustrated by two examples. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A corrected formulation for marginal inference derived from two-part mixed models for longitudinal semi-continuous data.

PubMed

Tom, Brian Dm; Su, Li; Farewell, Vernon T

2016-10-01

For semi-continuous data which are a mixture of true zeros and continuously distributed positive values, the use of two-part mixed models provides a convenient modelling framework. However, deriving population-averaged (marginal) effects from such models is not always straightforward. Su et al. presented a model that provided convenient estimation of marginal effects for the logistic component of the two-part model but the specification of marginal effects for the continuous part of the model presented in that paper was based on an incorrect formulation. We present a corrected formulation and additionally explore the use of the two-part model for inferences on the overall marginal mean, which may be of more practical relevance in our application and more generally. © The Author(s) 2013.

Prevalence and covariates of food insecurity among residents of single-room occupancy housing in Chicago, IL, USA.

PubMed

Bowen, Elizabeth A; Bowen, Sarah K; Barman-Adhikari, Anamika

2016-04-01

Emerging evidence suggests that food insecurity is a significant public health concern among people who are homeless or marginally housed. The present study assessed prevalence of food insecurity and its covariates among a group of marginally housed individuals living in single-room occupancy (SRO) dwellings, a population for which there is little extant health or nutrition research. Cross-sectional survey incorporating the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale. Ten private SRO residences in the Uptown neighbourhood of Chicago, IL, USA, 2013. SRO residents over 18 years of age who were able to communicate verbally in English (n 153). Food insecurity was widespread among SRO residents, with 75 % of the sample considered food insecure and 52 % meeting criteria for severe food insecurity. Bivariate analyses indicated that female gender, eating most meals at a soup kitchen, having a mental health condition, problem drinking, having at least one chronic health condition, and diabetes were all significantly associated with food insecurity. In the multivariate ordered logistic regression model, eating most meals at a soup kitchen remained as the only significant correlate of food insecurity (OR=10·13). SRO residents and other marginally housed populations face unique food access challenges. Although targeted assistance in the form of food stamps and congregate meal programmes remains critical, efforts to prevent and address food insecurity among homeless and marginally housed individuals should include policy interventions that recognize poverty as the root cause of food insecurity and aim to increase overall income and improve housing conditions.

Risk factors for positive margins in conservative surgery for breast cancer after neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

PubMed

Bouzón, Alberto; Acea, Benigno; García, Alejandra; Iglesias, Ángela; Mosquera, Joaquín; Santiago, Paz; Seoane, Teresa

2016-01-01

Breast conservative surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy intends to remove any residual tumor with negative margins. The purpose of this study was to analyze the preoperative clinical-pathological factors influencing the margin status after conservative surgery in breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. A retrospective study of 91 breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy (92 breast lesions) during the period 2006 to 2013. A Cox regression analysis to identify baseline tumor characteristics associated with positive margins after breast conservative surgery was performed. Of all cases, 71 tumors were initially treated with conservative surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Pathologic exam revealed positive margins in 16 of the 71 cases (22.5%). The incidence of positive margins was significantly higher in cancers with initial size >5cm (P=.021), in cancers with low tumor grade (P=.031), and in patients with hormone receptor-positive cancer (P=.006). After a median follow-up of 45.2 months, 7 patients of the 71 treated with conservative surgery had disease recurrence (9.8%). There was no significant difference in terms of disease-free survival according to the margin status (P=.596). A baseline tumor size >5cm, low tumor grade and hormone receptor-positive status increase the risk for surgical margin involvement in breast conservative surgery after neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

B cells are critical to T-cell-mediated antitumor immunity induced by a combined immune-stimulatory/conditionally cytotoxic therapy for glioblastoma.

PubMed

Candolfi, Marianela; Curtin, James F; Yagiz, Kader; Assi, Hikmat; Wibowo, Mia K; Alzadeh, Gabrielle E; Foulad, David; Muhammad, A K M G; Salehi, Sofia; Keech, Naomi; Puntel, Mariana; Liu, Chunyan; Sanderson, Nicholas R; Kroeger, Kurt M; Dunn, Robert; Martins, Gislaine; Lowenstein, Pedro R; Castro, Maria G

2011-10-01

We have demonstrated that modifying the tumor microenvironment through intratumoral administration of adenoviral vectors (Ad) encoding the conditional cytotoxic molecule, i.e., HSV1-TK and the immune-stimulatory cytokine, i.e., fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 ligand (Flt3L) leads to T-cell-dependent tumor regression in rodent models of glioblastoma. We investigated the role of B cells during immune-mediated glioblastoma multiforme regression. Although treatment with Ad-TK+Ad-Flt3L induced tumor regression in 60% of wild-type (WT) mice, it completely failed in B-cell-deficient Igh6(-/-) mice. Tumor-specific T-cell precursors were detected in Ad-TK+Ad-Flt3L-treated WT mice but not in Igh6(-/-) mice. The treatment also failed in WT mice depleted of total B cells or marginal zone B cells. Because we could not detect circulating antibodies against tumor cells and the treatment was equally efficient in WT mice and in mice with B-cell-specific deletion of Prdm 1 (encoding Blimp-1), in which B cells are present but unable to fully differentiate into antibody-secreting plasma cells, tumor regression in this model is not dependent on B cells' production of tumor antigen-specific immunoglobulins. Instead, B cells seem to play a role as antigen-presenting cells (APCs). Treatment with Ad-TK+Ad-Flt3L led to an increase in the number of B cells in the cervical lymph nodes, which stimulated the proliferation of syngeneic T cells and induced clonal expansion of antitumor T cells. Our data show that B cells act as APCs, playing a critical role in clonal expansion of tumor antigen-specific T cells and brain tumor regression.

The Relationship Between Hope and Adolescent Likelihood to Endorse Substance Use Behaviors in a Sample of Marginalized Youth.

PubMed

Brooks, Merrian J; Marshal, Michael P; McCauley, Heather L; Douaihy, Antoine; Miller, Elizabeth

2016-11-09

Hopefulness has been associated with increased treatment retention and reduced substance abuse among adults, and may be a promising modifiable factor to leverage in substance abuse treatment settings. Few studies have assessed the relationship between hopefulness and substance use in adolescents, particularly those with high-risk backgrounds. We explored whether high hope is associated with less likelihood for engaging in a variety of substance use behaviors in a sample of marginalized adolescents. Using logistic regression, we assessed results from a cross-sectional anonymous youth behavior survey (n = 256 youth, ages 14 to 19). We recruited from local youth serving agencies (e.g., homeless shelters, group homes, short-term detention). The sample was almost 60% male and two thirds African American. Unadjusted models showed youth with higher hope had a 50-58% (p = <.05) decreased odds of endorsing heavy episodic drinking, daily tobacco use, recent or lifetime marijuana use, and sex after using substances. Adjusted models showed a 52% decreased odds of lifetime marijuana use with higher hope, and a trend towards less sex after substance use (AOR 0.481; p = 0.065). No other substance use behaviors remained significantly associated with higher hope scores in adjusted models. Hopefulness may contribute to decreased likelihood of substance use in adolescents. Focusing on hope may be one modifiable target in a comprehensive primary or secondary substance use prevention program.

Possible modes of coral-reef development at Molokai, Hawaii, inferred from seismic-reflection profiling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnhardt, W.A.; Richmond, B.M.; Grossman, E.E.; Hart, P.

2005-01-01

High-resolution, seismic-reflection data elucidate the late Quaternary development of the largest coral-reef complex in the main Hawaiian Islands. Six acoustic facies were identified from reflection characteristics and lithosome geometry. An extensive, buried platform with uniformly low relief was traced beneath fore-reef and marginal shelf environments. This highly reflective surface dips gently seaward to ???130 m depth and locally crops out on the seafloor. It probably represents a wave-cut platform or ancient reef flat. We propose alternative evolutionary models, in which sea-level changes have modulated the development of reef systems, to explain the observed stratigraphic relationships. The primary difference between the models is the origin of the underlying antecedent surface, which arguably could have formed during either regression/lowstand or subsequent transgression. 

Robust Flutter Margin Analysis that Incorporates Flight Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, mu, computes a stability margin that directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The mu margins are robust margins that indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

Modelling of sea floor spreading initiation and rifted continental margin formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymms, V. J.; Isimm Team

2003-04-01

Recent observations of depth dependent (heterogeneous) stretching where upper crustal extension is much less than that of the lower crust and lithospheric mantle at both non-volcanic and volcanic margins plus the discovery of broad domains of exhumed continental mantle at non-volcanic rifted margins are not predicted by existing quantitative models of rifted margin formation which are usually based on intra-continental rift models subjected to very large stretching factors. New conceptual and quantitative models of rifted margin formation are required. Observations and continuum mechanics suggest that the dominant process responsible for rifted continental margin formation is sea-floor spreading of the young ocean ridge, rather than pre-breakup intra-continental rifting. Simple fluid flow models of ocean ridge processes using analytical iso-viscous corner-flow demonstrate that the divergent motion of the upwelling mantle beneath the ocean ridge, when viewed in the reference frame of the young continental margin, shows oceanward flow of the lower continental crust and lithospheric mantle of the young rifted margin giving rise to depth dependent stretching as observed. Single-phase fluid-models have been developed to model the initiation of sea-floor spreading and the thermal, stretching and thinning evolution of the young rifted continental margin. Finite element fluid-flow modelling incorporating the evolving temperature dependent viscosity field on the fluid flow also show depth dependent stretching of the young continental margin. Two-phase flow models of ocean ridges incorporating the transport of both solid matrix and melt fluid (Spiegelman &Reynolds 1999) predict the divergent motion of the asthenosphere and lithosphere matrix, and the focusing of basaltic melt into the narrow axial zone spreading centre at ocean ridges. We are adapting two-phase flow models for application to the initiation of sea-floor spreading and rifted continental margin formation. iSIMM investigators are V Tymms, NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, N Hurst, Z Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, R Spitzer, A. Davies and A. Surendra, with funding from NERC, DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd., Anadarko, Conoco, Phillips, Shell, Statoil, and WesternGeco.

High resolution 2D numerical models from rift to break-up: Crustal hyper-extension, Margin asymmetry, Sequential faulting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brune, Sascha; Heine, Christian; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; Sobolev, Stephan

2013-04-01

Numerical modelling is a powerful tool to integrate a multitude of geological and geophysical data while addressing fundamental questions of passive margin formation such as the occurrence of crustal hyper-extension, (a-)symmetries between conjugate margin pairs, and the sometimes significant structural differences between adjacent margin segments. This study utilises knowledge gathered from two key examples of non-magmatic, asymmetric, conjugate margin pairs, i.e. Iberia-New Foundland and Southern Africa-Brazil, where many published seismic lines provide solid knowledge on individual margin geometry. While both margins involve crustal hyper-extension, it is much more pronounced in the South Atlantic. We investigate the evolution of these two margin pairs by carefully constraining our models with detailed plate kinematic history, laboratory-based rheology, and melt fraction evaluation of mantle upwelling. Our experiments are consistent with observed fault patterns, crustal thickness, and basin stratigraphy. We conduct 2D thermomechanical rift models using the finite element code SLIM3D that operates with nonlinear stress- and temperature-dependent elasto-visco-plastic rheology, with parameters provided by laboratory experiments on major crustal and upper mantle rocks. In our models we also calculate the melt fraction within the upwelling asthenosphere, which allows us to control whether the model indeed corresponds to the non-magmatic margin type or not. Our modelling highlights two processes as fundamental for the formation of hyper-extension and margin asymmetry at non-magmatic margins: (1) Strain hardening in the rift center due to cooling of upwelling mantle material (2) The formation of a weak crustal domain adjacent to the rift center caused by localized viscous strain softening and heat transfer from the mantle. Simultaneous activity of both processes promotes lateral rift migration in a continuous way that generates a wide layer of hyper-extended crust on one side of the rift basin. This mechanism implies that syn-rift deformation at the distal margin postdates faulting at the proximal margin by several million years. The succession of events holds intriguing implications not only for peak heat flow migration but also for processes like serpentinization and magmatic underplating.

Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data With Examples From Criminology.

PubMed

Long, Jeffrey D; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P

2009-01-01

Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides individual-level information including information about heterogeneity of growth. It is shown how a type of numerical averaging can be used with the random intercepts model to obtain group-level information, thus approximating individual and marginal aspects of the LMM. The types of inferences associated with each model are illustrated with longitudinal criminal offending data based on N = 506 males followed over a 22-year period. Violent offending indexed by official records and self-report were analyzed, with the marginal model estimated using generalized estimating equations and the random intercepts model estimated using maximum likelihood. The results show that the numerical averaging based on the random intercepts can produce prediction curves almost identical to those obtained directly from the marginal model parameter estimates. The results provide a basis for contrasting the models and the estimation procedures and key features are discussed to aid in selecting a method for empirical analysis.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Alencar, Airlane P; Singer, Julio M; Rocha, Francisco Marcelo M

2012-03-01

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretest-posttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses. © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Two-part models with stochastic processes for modelling longitudinal semicontinuous data: Computationally efficient inference and modelling the overall marginal mean.

PubMed

Yiu, Sean; Tom, Brian Dm

2017-01-01

Several researchers have described two-part models with patient-specific stochastic processes for analysing longitudinal semicontinuous data. In theory, such models can offer greater flexibility than the standard two-part model with patient-specific random effects. However, in practice, the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood (i.e. integrated over the stochastic processes) significantly complicates model fitting. Thus, non-standard computationally intensive procedures based on simulating the marginal likelihood have so far only been proposed. In this paper, we describe an efficient method of implementation by demonstrating how the high dimensional integrations involved in the marginal likelihood can be computed efficiently. Specifically, by using a property of the multivariate normal distribution and the standard marginal cumulative distribution function identity, we transform the marginal likelihood so that the high dimensional integrations are contained in the cumulative distribution function of a multivariate normal distribution, which can then be efficiently evaluated. Hence, maximum likelihood estimation can be used to obtain parameter estimates and asymptotic standard errors (from the observed information matrix) of model parameters. We describe our proposed efficient implementation procedure for the standard two-part model parameterisation and when it is of interest to directly model the overall marginal mean. The methodology is applied on a psoriatic arthritis data set concerning functional disability.

Housing Status and HIV Risk Behaviors among Transgender Women in Los Angeles

PubMed Central

Fletcher, Jesse B.; Kisler, Kimberly A.; Reback, Cathy J.

2014-01-01

Due to social stigma, lack of social support, and minimal legal employment opportunities, transgender women (transwomen) face elevated rates of unstable housing. This study examined the association between housing status and HIV risk behaviors among 517 transwomen encountered through street outreach. Seven variables (including sociodemographics, HIV status, housing status, and sexual partner type) were used to estimate partial associations during multivariable analyses; housing status was coded trichotomously (housed, marginally housed, and homeless) for these analyses. Results demonstrated that homeless and marginally housed transwomen engaged in significantly higher rates of illicit drug use than housed transwomen; however, marginally housed and housed transwomen engaged in significantly higher rates of illegal hormone injections than homeless transwomen. Rates of sex work were high in the sample as a whole, though sex with an exchange partner was most common among the marginally housed transwomen. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that unstable housing moderated the association between HIV status and engagement in unprotected serodiscordant anal intercourse. The marginally housed transwomen exhibited the greatest risk profile for HIV acquisition or transmission. PMID:25190499

Bayesian inference based on stationary Fokker-Planck sampling.

PubMed

Berrones, Arturo

2010-06-01

A novel formalism for bayesian learning in the context of complex inference models is proposed. The method is based on the use of the stationary Fokker-Planck (SFP) approach to sample from the posterior density. Stationary Fokker-Planck sampling generalizes the Gibbs sampler algorithm for arbitrary and unknown conditional densities. By the SFP procedure, approximate analytical expressions for the conditionals and marginals of the posterior can be constructed. At each stage of SFP, the approximate conditionals are used to define a Gibbs sampling process, which is convergent to the full joint posterior. By the analytical marginals efficient learning methods in the context of artificial neural networks are outlined. Offline and incremental bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation from the posterior are performed in classification and regression examples. A comparison of SFP with other Monte Carlo strategies in the general problem of sampling from arbitrary densities is also presented. It is shown that SFP is able to jump large low-probability regions without the need of a careful tuning of any step-size parameter. In fact, the SFP method requires only a small set of meaningful parameters that can be selected following clear, problem-independent guidelines. The computation cost of SFP, measured in terms of loss function evaluations, grows linearly with the given model's dimension.

Acculturation styles and their associations with psychiatric symptoms and quality of life in ethnic minorities with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Weisman de Mamani, Amy; Weintraub, Marc J; Maura, Jessica; Martinez de Andino, Ana; Brown, Caitlin A; Gurak, Kayla

2017-09-01

This study examined whether Berry's model of acculturative stress would predict psychiatric symptom severity and quality of life (QoL) in ethnic minorities with schizophrenia. Tested extensively in non-psychiatric populations, Berry's framework generally suggests that integration, or engagement with both the host and minority culture, is most adaptive. Using the Abbreviated Multidimensional Acculturation Scale (AMAS), we tested the hypothesis that individuals with schizophrenia who employed an integrative acculturation strategy would have the highest QoL and lowest symptom severity, followed by the assimilation and enculturation groups, then the marginalized group. Psychiatric symptoms and QoL were regressed on AMAS assimilation scores, enculturation scores, and the interaction term in a sample of 128 Hispanic and Blacks with schizophrenia (M age = 41.28; 70% male). Acculturation strategy was not found to relate to psychiatric symptoms (measured from the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale). However, acculturation strategy did predict QoL (measured from the Quality of Life Inventory), and results were in line with Berry's model. Marginalization may exacerbate issues surrounding social identity in schizophrenia, including low self-concept clarity and internalized stigma. Encouraging bicultural individuals with schizophrenia to interact with the host culture while also practicing traditions from their minority culture may help improve their quality of life. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Impact of Text Message Reminders on Caregivers’ Adherence to a Home Fortification Program Against Child Anemia in Rural Western China: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Zhou, Huan; Sun, Shuai; Sylvia, Sean; Yue, Ai; Shi, Yaojiang; Zhang, Linxiu; Medina, Alexis; Rozelle, Scott

2016-01-01

Objectives. To test whether text message reminders sent to caregivers improve the effectiveness of a home micronutrient fortification program in western China. Methods. We carried out a cluster-randomized controlled trial in 351 villages (clusters) in Shaanxi Province in 2013 and 2014, enrolling children aged 6 to 12 months. We randomly assigned each village to 1 of 3 groups: free delivery group, text messaging group, or control group. We collected information on compliance with treatments and hemoglobin concentrations from all children at baseline and 6-month follow-up. We estimated the intent-to-treat effects on compliance and child anemia using a logistic regression model. Results. There were 1393 eligible children. We found that assignment to the text messaging group led to an increase in full compliance (marginal effect = 0.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.03, 0.16) compared with the free delivery group and decrease in the rate of anemia at end line relative to the control group (marginal effect = −0.07; 95% CI = −0.12, −0.01), but not relative to the free delivery group (marginal effect = −0.03; 95% CI = −0.09, 0.03). Conclusions. Text messages improved compliance of caregivers to a home fortification program and children’s nutrition. PMID:27077354

Worst-Case Flutter Margins from F/A-18 Aircraft Aeroelastic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty

1997-01-01

An approach for computing worst-case flutter margins has been formulated in a robust stability framework. Uncertainty operators are included with a linear model to describe modeling errors and flight variations. The structured singular value, micron, computes a stability margin which directly accounts for these uncertainties. This approach introduces a new method of computing flutter margins and an associated new parameter for describing these margins. The micron margins are robust margins which indicate worst-case stability estimates with respect to the defined uncertainty. Worst-case flutter margins are computed for the F/A-18 SRA using uncertainty sets generated by flight data analysis. The robust margins demonstrate flight conditions for flutter may lie closer to the flight envelope than previously estimated by p-k analysis.

A Procedure for Calculating the Vertical Space Height of the Sacrum When Determining Skeletal Height for Use in the Anatomical Method of Adult Stature Estimation.

PubMed

Hayashi, Atsuko; Emanovsky, Paul D; Pietrusewsky, Michael; Holland, Thomas D

2016-03-01

Estimating stature from skeletonized remains is one of the essential parameters in the development of a biological profile. A new procedure for determining skeletal height (SKH) incorporating the vertical space height (VSH) from the anterior margin of the sacral promontory to the superior margins of the acetabulae for use in the anatomical method of stature estimation is introduced. Regression equations for stature estimation were generated from measurements of 38 American males of European ancestry from the William M. Bass Donated Skeletal Collection. The modification to the procedure results in a SKH that is highly correlated with stature (r = 0.925-0.948). Stature estimates have low standard errors of the estimate ranging from 21.79 to 25.95 mm, biases from to 0.50 to 0.94 mm, and accuracy rates from 17.71 mm to 19.45 mm. The procedure for determining the VSH, which replaces "S1 height" in traditional anatomical method models, is a key improvement to the method. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Quantitative prediction of solvation free energy in octanol of organic compounds.

PubMed

Delgado, Eduardo J; Jaña, Gonzalo A

2009-03-01

The free energy of solvation, DeltaGS0, in octanol of organic compounds is quantitatively predicted from the molecular structure. The model, involving only three molecular descriptors, is obtained by multiple linear regression analysis from a data set of 147 compounds containing diverse organic functions, namely, halogenated and non-halogenated alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, aromatics, alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, amines, ethers and esters; covering a DeltaGS0 range from about -50 to 0 kJ.mol(-1). The model predicts the free energy of solvation with a squared correlation coefficient of 0.93 and a standard deviation, 2.4 kJ.mol(-1), just marginally larger than the generally accepted value of experimental uncertainty. The involved molecular descriptors have definite physical meaning corresponding to the different intermolecular interactions occurring in the bulk liquid phase. The model is validated with an external set of 36 compounds not included in the training set.

Quantitative Prediction of Solvation Free Energy in Octanol of Organic Compounds

PubMed Central

Delgado, Eduardo J.; Jaña, Gonzalo A.

2009-01-01

The free energy of solvation, ΔGS0, in octanol of organic compunds is quantitatively predicted from the molecular structure. The model, involving only three molecular descriptors, is obtained by multiple linear regression analysis from a data set of 147 compounds containing diverse organic functions, namely, halogenated and non-halogenated alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, aromatics, alcohols, aldehydes, ketones, amines, ethers and esters; covering a ΔGS0 range from about −50 to 0 kJ·mol−1. The model predicts the free energy of solvation with a squared correlation coefficient of 0.93 and a standard deviation, 2.4 kJ·mol−1, just marginally larger than the generally accepted value of experimental uncertainty. The involved molecular descriptors have definite physical meaning corresponding to the different intermolecular interactions occurring in the bulk liquid phase. The model is validated with an external set of 36 compounds not included in the training set. PMID:19399236

Semiparametric regression analysis of interval-censored competing risks data.

PubMed

Mao, Lu; Lin, Dan-Yu; Zeng, Donglin

2017-09-01

Interval-censored competing risks data arise when each study subject may experience an event or failure from one of several causes and the failure time is not observed directly but rather is known to lie in an interval between two examinations. We formulate the effects of possibly time-varying (external) covariates on the cumulative incidence or sub-distribution function of competing risks (i.e., the marginal probability of failure from a specific cause) through a broad class of semiparametric regression models that captures both proportional and non-proportional hazards structures for the sub-distribution. We allow each subject to have an arbitrary number of examinations and accommodate missing information on the cause of failure. We consider nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation and devise a fast and stable EM-type algorithm for its computation. We then establish the consistency, asymptotic normality, and semiparametric efficiency of the resulting estimators for the regression parameters by appealing to modern empirical process theory. In addition, we show through extensive simulation studies that the proposed methods perform well in realistic situations. Finally, we provide an application to a study on HIV-1 infection with different viral subtypes. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Score tests for independence in semiparametric competing risks models.

PubMed

Saïd, Mériem; Ghazzali, Nadia; Rivest, Louis-Paul

2009-12-01

A popular model for competing risks postulates the existence of a latent unobserved failure time for each risk. Assuming that these underlying failure times are independent is attractive since it allows standard statistical tools for right-censored lifetime data to be used in the analysis. This paper proposes simple independence score tests for the validity of this assumption when the individual risks are modeled using semiparametric proportional hazards regressions. It assumes that covariates are available, making the model identifiable. The score tests are derived for alternatives that specify that copulas are responsible for a possible dependency between the competing risks. The test statistics are constructed by adding to the partial likelihoods for the individual risks an explanatory variable for the dependency between the risks. A variance estimator is derived by writing the score function and the Fisher information matrix for the marginal models as stochastic integrals. Pitman efficiencies are used to compare test statistics. A simulation study and a numerical example illustrate the methodology proposed in this paper.

Statistical use of argonaute expression and RISC assembly in microRNA target identification.

PubMed

Stanhope, Stephen A; Sengupta, Srikumar; den Boon, Johan; Ahlquist, Paul; Newton, Michael A

2009-09-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) posttranscriptionally regulate targeted messenger RNAs (mRNAs) by inducing cleavage or otherwise repressing their translation. We address the problem of detecting m/miRNA targeting relationships in homo sapiens from microarray data by developing statistical models that are motivated by the biological mechanisms used by miRNAs. The focus of our modeling is the construction, activity, and mediation of RNA-induced silencing complexes (RISCs) competent for targeted mRNA cleavage. We demonstrate that regression models accommodating RISC abundance and controlling for other mediating factors fit the expression profiles of known target pairs substantially better than models based on m/miRNA expressions alone, and lead to verifications of computational target pair predictions that are more sensitive than those based on marginal expression levels. Because our models are fully independent of exogenous results from sequence-based computational methods, they are appropriate for use as either a primary or secondary source of information regarding m/miRNA target pair relationships, especially in conjunction with high-throughput expression studies.

Doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts.

PubMed

Lin, Huiming; Fu, Bo; Qin, Guoyou; Zhu, Zhongyi

2017-12-01

We develop a doubly robust estimation of generalized partial linear models for longitudinal data with dropouts. Our method extends the highly efficient aggregate unbiased estimating function approach proposed in Qu et al. (2010) to a doubly robust one in the sense that under missing at random (MAR), our estimator is consistent when either the linear conditional mean condition is satisfied or a model for the dropout process is correctly specified. We begin with a generalized linear model for the marginal mean, and then move forward to a generalized partial linear model, allowing for nonparametric covariate effect by using the regression spline smoothing approximation. We establish the asymptotic theory for the proposed method and use simulation studies to compare its finite sample performance with that of Qu's method, the complete-case generalized estimating equation (GEE) and the inverse-probability weighted GEE. The proposed method is finally illustrated using data from a longitudinal cohort study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

Tumor response and negative distal resection margins of rectal cancer after hyperthermochemoradiation therapy.

PubMed

Tsutsumi, Soichi; Tabe, Yuichi; Fujii, Takaaki; Yamaguchi, Satoru; Suto, Toshinaga; Yajima, Reina; Morita, Hiroki; Kato, Toshihide; Shioya, Mariko; Saito, Jun-Ichi; Asao, Takayuki; Nakano, Takashi; Kuwano, Hiroyuki

2011-11-01

The safety of regional hyperthermia has been tested in locally advanced rectal cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of shorter distal margins on local control and survival in rectal cancer patients who were treated with preoperative hyperthermochemoradiation therapy (HCRT) and underwent rectal resection by using the total mesorectal excision (TME) method. Ninety-three patients with rectal adenocarcinoma who received neoadjuvant HCRT (total radiation: 50 Gy) were included in this study. Surgery was performed 8 weeks after HCRT, and each resected specimen was evaluated histologically. Length of distal surgical margins, status of circumferential margins, pathological response, and tumor node metastasis stage were examined for their effects on recurrence and survival. Fifty-eight (62.4%) patients had tumor regression, and 20 (21.5%) had a pathological complete response. Distal margin length ranged from 1 to 55 mm (median, 21 mm) and did not correlate with local recurrence (p=0.57) or survival (p=0.75) by univariate analysis. Kaplan-Meier estimates of recurrence-free survival and local recurrence for the <10 mm versus ≥10 mm groups were not significantly different. Positive circumferential margins and failure of tumors to respond were unfavorable factors in survival. Distal resection margins that are shorter than 10 mm but are not positive appear to be equivalent to longer margins in patients who undergo HCRT followed by rectal resection with TME. To improve the down-staging rate, additional studies are needed.

Continental transform margins : state of art and future milestones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile, Christophe

2010-05-01

Transform faults were defined 45 years ago as ‘a new class of fault' (Wilson, 1965), and transform margins were consequently individualized as a new class of continental margins. While transform margins represent 20 to 25 % of the total length of continent-ocean transitions, they were poorly studied, especially when compared with the amount of data, interpretations, models and conceptual progress accumulated on divergent or convergent continental margins. The best studied examples of transform margins are located in the northern part of Norway, south of South Africa, in the gulf of California and on both sides of the Equatorial Atlantic. Here is located the Côte d'Ivoire - Ghana margin, where the more complete data set was acquired, based on numerous geological and geophysical cruises, including ODP Leg 159. The first models that encompassed the structure and evolution of transform margins were mainly driven by plate kinematic reconstructions, and evidenced the diachronic end of tectonic activity and the non-cylindrical character of these margins, with a decreasing strike-slip deformation from the convex to the concave divergent-transform intersections. Further thermo-mechanical models were more specifically designed to explain the vertical displacements along transform margins, and especially the occurrence of high-standing marginal ridges. These thermo-mechanical models involved either heat transfer from oceanic to continental lithospheres across the transform faults or tectonically- or gravity-driven mass transfer in the upper crust. These models were far from fully fit observations, and were frequently dedicated to specific example, and not easily generalizable. Future work on transform continental margins may be expected to fill some scientific gaps, and the definition of working directions can benefit from the studies dedicated to other types of margins. At regional scale the structural and sedimentological variability of transform continental margins has to be emphasized. There is not only one type of transform margins, but as for divergent margins huge changes from one margin to another in both structure and evolution. Multiple types have to be evidenced together with the various parameters that should control the variability. As for divergent margins, special attention should be paid to conjugated transform margins as a tool to assess symmetrical / asymmetrical processes in the oceanic opening. Attention should also be focused on the three-dimensional structure of the intersections between transform and divergent margins, such as the one where the giant oil field Jubilee was recently discovered. There is almost no 3D data available in these area, and their structures still have to be described. An other key point to develop is the mechanical behavior of the lithosphere in and in the vicinity of transform margins. The classical behaviors (isostasy, elastic flexure) have be tested extensively. The localization of the deformation by the transform fault, and the coupling of continental and oceanic lithosphere across the transform fault have to be adressed to understand the evolution of these margins. Again as for divergent margins, new concepts are needed to explain the variations in the post-rift and post-transform subsidence, that can not always be explained by classical subsidence models. But the most remarkable advance in our understanding of transform margins may be related to the study of interactions between the lithosphere and adjacent envelops : deep interactions with the mantle, as underplating, tectonic erosion, or possible lateral crustal flow ; surficial interactions between structural evolution, erosion and sedimentation processes in transform margins may affect the topography and bathymetry, thus the oceanic circulation with possible effects on regional and global climate.

Extensional fault geometry and its flexural isostatic response during the formation of the Iberia - Newfoundland conjugate rifted margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez-Romeu, Júlia; Kusznir, Nick; Manatschal, Gianreto; Roberts, Alan

2017-04-01

Despite magma-poor rifted margins having been extensively studied for the last 20 years, the evolution of extensional fault geometry and the flexural isostatic response to faulting remain still debated topics. We investigate how the flexural isostatic response to faulting controls the structural development of the distal part of rifted margins in the hyper-extended domain and the resulting sedimentary record. In particular we address an important question concerning the geometry and evolution of extensional faults within distal hyper-extended continental crust; are the seismically observed extensional fault blocks in this region allochthons from the upper plate or are they autochthons of the lower plate? In order to achieve our aim we focus on the west Iberian rifted continental margin along the TGS and LG12 seismic profiles. Our strategy is to use a kinematic forward model (RIFTER) to model the tectonic and stratigraphic development of the west Iberia margin along TGS-LG12 and quantitatively test and calibrate the model against breakup paleo-bathymetry, crustal basement thickness and well data. RIFTER incorporates the flexural isostatic response to extensional faulting, crustal thinning, lithosphere thermal loads, sedimentation and erosion. The model predicts the structural and stratigraphic consequences of recursive sequential faulting and sedimentation. The target data used to constrain model predictions consists of two components: (i) gravity anomaly inversion is used to determine Moho depth, crustal basement thickness and continental lithosphere thinning and (ii) reverse post-rift subsidence modelling consisting of flexural backstripping, decompaction and reverse post-rift thermal subsidence modelling is used to give paleo-bathymetry at breakup time. We show that successful modelling of the structural and stratigraphic development of the TGS-LG12 Iberian margin transect also requires the simultaneous modelling of the Newfoundland conjugate margin, which we constrain using target data from the SCREECH 2 seismic profile. We also show that for the successful modelling and quantitative validation of the lithosphere hyper-extension stage it is necessary to first have a good calibrated model of the necking phase. Not surprisingly the evolution of a rifted continental margin cannot be modelled without modelling and calibration of its conjugate margin.

Nonrhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma (NRSTS) in pediatric and young adult patients: Results from a prospective study using limited-margin radiotherapy.

PubMed

Tinkle, Christopher L; Fernandez-Pineda, Israel; Sykes, April; Lu, Zhaohua; Hua, Chia-Ho; Neel, Michael D; Bahrami, Armita; Shulkin, Barry L; Kaste, Sue C; Pappo, Alberto; Spunt, Sheri L; Krasin, Matthew J

2017-11-15

Indications for and delivery of adjuvant therapies for pediatric nonrhabdomyosarcoma soft tissue sarcoma (NRSTS) have been derived largely from adult studies; therefore, significant concern remains regarding radiation exposure to normal tissue. The authors report long-term treatment outcomes and toxicities for pediatric and young adult patients with high-grade NRSTS who were treated on a prospective trial using limited-margin radiotherapy. Sixty-two patients (ages 3-22 years) with predominantly high-grade NRSTS requiring radiation were treated on a phase 2 institutional study of conformal external-beam radiotherapy and/or brachytherapy using a 1.5-cm to 2-cm anatomically constrained margin. The estimated cumulative incidence of local failure, Gray's method estimated cumulative incidence of local failure, Kaplan-Meier method estimated survival, competing-risk regression model determined predictors of disease outcome, and toxicity was reported according to CTCAE v2.0. At a median follow-up of 5.1 years (range, 0.2-10.9 years), 9 patients had experienced local failure. The 5-year overall cumulative incidence of local failure was 14.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.2%-25%), and all but 1 local failure occurred outside the highest-dose irradiation volume. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier estimates for event-free and overall survival were 49.3% (95% CI, 36.3%-61.1%) and 67.9% (95% CI, 54.2%-78.3%), respectively. Multivariable analysis indicated that younger age was the only independent predictor of local recurrence (P = .004). The 5-year cumulative incidence of grade 3 or 4 late toxicity was 15% (95% CI, 7.2%-25.3%). The delivery of limited-margin radiotherapy using conformal external-beam radiotherapy or brachytherapy provides a high rate of local tumor control without an increase in marginal failures and with acceptable treatment-related morbidity. Cancer 2017;123:4419-29. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Omnibus Risk Assessment via Accelerated Failure Time Kernel Machine Modeling

PubMed Central

Sinnott, Jennifer A.; Cai, Tianxi

2013-01-01

Summary Integrating genomic information with traditional clinical risk factors to improve the prediction of disease outcomes could profoundly change the practice of medicine. However, the large number of potential markers and possible complexity of the relationship between markers and disease make it difficult to construct accurate risk prediction models. Standard approaches for identifying important markers often rely on marginal associations or linearity assumptions and may not capture non-linear or interactive effects. In recent years, much work has been done to group genes into pathways and networks. Integrating such biological knowledge into statistical learning could potentially improve model interpretability and reliability. One effective approach is to employ a kernel machine (KM) framework, which can capture nonlinear effects if nonlinear kernels are used (Scholkopf and Smola, 2002; Liu et al., 2007, 2008). For survival outcomes, KM regression modeling and testing procedures have been derived under a proportional hazards (PH) assumption (Li and Luan, 2003; Cai et al., 2011). In this paper, we derive testing and prediction methods for KM regression under the accelerated failure time model, a useful alternative to the PH model. We approximate the null distribution of our test statistic using resampling procedures. When multiple kernels are of potential interest, it may be unclear in advance which kernel to use for testing and estimation. We propose a robust Omnibus Test that combines information across kernels, and an approach for selecting the best kernel for estimation. The methods are illustrated with an application in breast cancer. PMID:24328713

Evaluating large-scale propensity score performance through real-world and synthetic data experiments.

PubMed

Tian, Yuxi; Schuemie, Martijn J; Suchard, Marc A

2018-06-22

Propensity score adjustment is a popular approach for confounding control in observational studies. Reliable frameworks are needed to determine relative propensity score performance in large-scale studies, and to establish optimal propensity score model selection methods. We detail a propensity score evaluation framework that includes synthetic and real-world data experiments. Our synthetic experimental design extends the 'plasmode' framework and simulates survival data under known effect sizes, and our real-world experiments use a set of negative control outcomes with presumed null effect sizes. In reproductions of two published cohort studies, we compare two propensity score estimation methods that contrast in their model selection approach: L1-regularized regression that conducts a penalized likelihood regression, and the 'high-dimensional propensity score' (hdPS) that employs a univariate covariate screen. We evaluate methods on a range of outcome-dependent and outcome-independent metrics. L1-regularization propensity score methods achieve superior model fit, covariate balance and negative control bias reduction compared with the hdPS. Simulation results are mixed and fluctuate with simulation parameters, revealing a limitation of simulation under the proportional hazards framework. Including regularization with the hdPS reduces commonly reported non-convergence issues but has little effect on propensity score performance. L1-regularization incorporates all covariates simultaneously into the propensity score model and offers propensity score performance superior to the hdPS marginal screen.

[Study on the effect of different impression methods on the marginal fit of all-ceramic crowns].

PubMed

Zhan, Lilin; Zeng, Liwei; Chen, Ping; Liao, Lan; Li, Shiyue; Liu, Renying

2015-08-01

To investigate the effect of three different impression methods on the marginal fit of all-ceramic crowns. The three methods include scanning silicone rubber impression, cast models, and direct optical impression. The polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) material of a mandibular first molar in standard model was prepared with 16 models duplicated. The all-ceramic crowns were prepared using three different impression methods. Accurate impressions were made using silicone rubber, and the cast models were obtained. The PMMA models, silicone rubber impressions, and cast models were scanned, and digital models of three groups were obtained to produce 48 zirconia all-ceramic crowns with computer aided design/computer aided manufacture. The marginal fit of these groups was measured by silicone rubber gap impression. Statistical analysis was performed with SPSS 17.0 software. The marginal fit of direct optical impression groups, silicone rubber impression groups, cast model groups was (69.18±9.47), (81.04±10.88), (84.42±9.96) µm. A significant difference was observed in the marginal fit of the direct optical impression groups and the other groups (P<0.05). No statistically significant difference was observed in the marginal fit of the silicone rubber impression groups and the cast model groups (P>0.05). All marginal measurement sites are clinically acceptable by the three different impression scanning methods. The silicone rubber impression scanning method can be used for all-ceramic restorations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yan, H; Chen, Z; Nath, R

Purpose: kV fluoroscopic imaging combined with MV treatment beam imaging has been investigated for intrafractional motion monitoring and correction. It is, however, subject to additional kV imaging dose to normal tissue. To balance tracking accuracy and imaging dose, we previously proposed an adaptive imaging strategy to dynamically decide future imaging type and moments based on motion tracking uncertainty. kV imaging may be used continuously for maximal accuracy or only when the position uncertainty (probability of out of threshold) is high if a preset imaging dose limit is considered. In this work, we propose more accurate methods to estimate tracking uncertaintymore » through analyzing acquired data in real-time. Methods: We simulated motion tracking process based on a previously developed imaging framework (MV + initial seconds of kV imaging) using real-time breathing data from 42 patients. Motion tracking errors for each time point were collected together with the time point’s corresponding features, such as tumor motion speed and 2D tracking error of previous time points, etc. We tested three methods for error uncertainty estimation based on the features: conditional probability distribution, logistic regression modeling, and support vector machine (SVM) classification to detect errors exceeding a threshold. Results: For conditional probability distribution, polynomial regressions on three features (previous tracking error, prediction quality, and cosine of the angle between the trajectory and the treatment beam) showed strong correlation with the variation (uncertainty) of the mean 3D tracking error and its standard deviation: R-square = 0.94 and 0.90, respectively. The logistic regression and SVM classification successfully identified about 95% of tracking errors exceeding 2.5mm threshold. Conclusion: The proposed methods can reliably estimate the motion tracking uncertainty in real-time, which can be used to guide adaptive additional imaging to confirm the tumor is within the margin or initialize motion compensation if it is out of the margin.« less

Two-year clinical trial of a universal adhesive in total-etch and self-etch mode in non-carious cervical lesions☆

PubMed Central

Lawson, Nathaniel C.; Robles, Augusto; Fu, Chin-Chuan; Lin, Chee Paul; Sawlani, Kanchan; Burgess, John O.

2016-01-01

Objectives To compare the clinical performance of Scotchbond™ Universal Adhesive used in self- and total-etch modes and two-bottle Scotchbond™ Multi-purpose Adhesive in total-etch mode for Class 5 non-carious cervical lesions (NCCLs). Methods 37 adults were recruited with 3 or 6 NCCLs (>1.5 mm deep). Teeth were isolated, and a short cervical bevel was prepared. Teeth were restored randomly with Scotchbond Universal total-etch, Scotchbond Universal self-etch or Scotchbond Multi-purpose followed with a composite resin. Restorations were evaluated at baseline, 6, 12 and 24 months for marginal adaptation, marginal discoloration, secondary caries, and sensitivity to cold using modified USPHS Criteria. Patients and evaluators were blinded. Logistic and linear regression models using a generalized estimating equation were applied to evaluate the effects of time and adhesive material on clinical assessment outcomes over the 24 month follow-up period. Kaplan–Meier method was used to compare the retention between adhesive materials. Results Clinical performance of all adhesive materials deteriorated over time for marginal adaptation, and discoloration (p <0.0001). Both Scotchbond Universal self-etch and Scotchbond Multi-purpose materials were more than three times as likely to contribute to less satisfying performance in marginal discoloration over time than Scotchbond Universal total-etch. The retention rates up to 24 months were 87.6%, 94.9% and 100% for Scotchbond Multi-purpose and Scotchbond Universal self-etch and total-etch, respectively. Conclusions Scotchbond Universal in self- and total- etch modes performed similar to or better than Scotchbond Multipurpose, respectively. Clinical significance 24 month evaluation of a universal adhesive indicates acceptable clinical performance, particularly in a total-etch mode. PMID:26231300

Future risk of labour market marginalization in young suicide attempters--a population-based prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Tinghög, Petter; Alexanderson, Kristina; Dahlin, Marie; Wang, Mo; Beckman, Karin; Gould, Madeleine; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor

2014-10-01

Research on future labour market marginalization following suicide attempt at young age is scarce. We investigated the effects of suicide attempts on three labour market outcomes: unemployment, sickness absence and disability pension. We conducted a prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 1,613,816 individuals who in 1994 were 16-30 years old and lived in Sweden. Suicide attempters treated in inpatient care during the 3 years preceding study entry, i.e. 1992-94 (N=5649) were compared with the general population of the same age without suicide attempt between 1973 and 2010 (n=1,608,167). Hazard ratios (HRs) for long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days) and disability pension in 1995-2010 were calculated by Cox regression models, adjusted for a number of parental and individual risk markers, and stratified for previous psychiatric inpatient care not due to suicide attempt. The risks for unemployment [HR 1.58; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-1.64], sickness absence (HR 2.16; 2.08-2.24) and disability pension (HR 4.57; 4.34-4.81) were considerably increased among suicide attempters. There was a dose-response relationship between number of suicide attempts and the risk of disability pension, for individuals both with or without previous psychiatric hospitalizations not due to suicide attempts. No such relationship was present with regard to unemployment. This study highlights the strong association of suicide attempts with future marginalization from the labour market, particularly for outcomes that are based on a medical assessment. Studies that focus only on unemployment may largely underestimate the true detrimental impact of suicide attempt on labour market marginalization. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

A ground penetrating radar investigation of a glacial-marine ice- contact delta, Pineo Ridge, eastern coastal Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tary, A.K.; Duncan, M. FitzGerald; Weddle, T.K.

2007-01-01

In eastern coastal Maine, many flat-topped landforms, often identified as glacial-marine deltas, are cultivated for blueberry production. These agriculturally valuable features are not exploited for aggregate resources, severely limiting stratigraphic exposure. Coring is often forbidden; where permissible, coarse-grained surficial sediments make coring and sediment retrieval difficult. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) has become an invaluable tool in an ongoing study of the otherwise inaccessible subsurface morphology in this region and provides a means of detailing the large-scale sedimentary structures comprising these features. GPR studies allow us to reassess previous depositional interpretations and to develop alternative developmental models. The work presented here focuses on Pineo Ridge, a large, flat-topped ice-marginal glacial-marine delta complex with a strong linear trend and two distinct landform zones, informally termed East Pineo and West Pineo. Previous workers have described each zone separately due to local morphological variation. Our GPR work further substantiates this geomorphic differentiation. East Pineo developed as a series of deltaic lobes prograding southward from an ice-contact margin during the local marine highstand. GPR data do not suggest postdepositional modification by ice-margin re-advance. We suggest that West Pineo has a more complex, two-stage depositional history. The southern section of the feature consists of southward-prograding deltaic lobes deposited during retreat of the Laurentide ice margin, with later erosional modification during marine regression. The northern section of West Pineo formed as a series of northward-prograd- ing deltaic lobes as sediment-laden meltwater may have been diverted by the existing deposits of the southern section of West Pineo. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America. All rights reserved.

Effect of Body Mass Index on Magnitude of Setup Errors in Patients Treated With Adjuvant Radiotherapy for Endometrial Cancer With Daily Image Guidance

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, Lilie L., E-mail: lin@uphs.upenn.edu; Hertan, Lauren; Rengan, Ramesh

2012-06-01

Purpose: To determine the impact of body mass index (BMI) on daily setup variations and frequency of imaging necessary for patients with endometrial cancer treated with adjuvant intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with daily image guidance. Methods and Materials: The daily shifts from a total of 782 orthogonal kilovoltage images from 30 patients who received pelvic IMRT between July 2008 and August 2010 were analyzed. The BMI, mean daily shifts, and random and systematic errors in each translational and rotational direction were calculated for each patient. Margin recipes were generated based on BMI. Linear regression and spearman rank correlation analysis were performed.more » To simulate a less-than-daily IGRT protocol, the average shift of the first five fractions was applied to subsequent setups without IGRT for assessing the impact on setup error and margin requirements. Results: Median BMI was 32.9 (range, 23-62). Of the 30 patients, 16.7% (n = 5) were normal weight (BMI <25); 23.3% (n = 7) were overweight (BMI {>=}25 to <30); 26.7% (n = 8) were mildly obese (BMI {>=}30 to <35); and 33.3% (n = 10) were moderately to severely obese (BMI {>=} 35). On linear regression, mean absolute vertical, longitudinal, and lateral shifts positively correlated with BMI (p = 0.0127, p = 0.0037, and p < 0.0001, respectively). Systematic errors in the longitudinal and vertical direction were found to be positively correlated with BMI category (p < 0.0001 for both). IGRT for the first five fractions, followed by correction of the mean error for all subsequent fractions, led to a substantial reduction in setup error and resultant margin requirement overall compared with no IGRT. Conclusions: Daily shifts, systematic errors, and margin requirements were greatest in obese patients. For women who are normal or overweight, a planning target margin margin of 7 to 10 mm may be sufficient without IGRT, but for patients who are moderately or severely obese, this is insufficient.« less

Variable screening via quantile partial correlation

PubMed Central

Ma, Shujie; Tsai, Chih-Ling

2016-01-01

In quantile linear regression with ultra-high dimensional data, we propose an algorithm for screening all candidate variables and subsequently selecting relevant predictors. Specifically, we first employ quantile partial correlation for screening, and then we apply the extended Bayesian information criterion (EBIC) for best subset selection. Our proposed method can successfully select predictors when the variables are highly correlated, and it can also identify variables that make a contribution to the conditional quantiles but are marginally uncorrelated or weakly correlated with the response. Theoretical results show that the proposed algorithm can yield the sure screening set. By controlling the false selection rate, model selection consistency can be achieved theoretically. In practice, we proposed using EBIC for best subset selection so that the resulting model is screening consistent. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed algorithm performs well, and an empirical example is presented. PMID:28943683

Micro-CT evaluation of the marginal fit of CAD/CAM all ceramic crowns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brenes, Christian

Objectives: Evaluate the marginal fit of CAD/CAM all ceramic crowns made from lithium disilicate and zirconia using two different fabrication protocols (model and model-less). METHODS: Forty anterior all ceramic restorations (20 lithium disilicate, 20 zirconia) were fabricated using a CEREC Bluecam scanner. Two different fabrication methods were used: a full digital approach and a printed model. Completed crowns were cemented and marginal gap was evaluated using Micro-CT. Each specimen was analyzed in sagittal and trans-axial orientations, allowing a 360° evaluation of the vertical and horizontal fit. RESULTS: Vertical measurements in the lingual, distal and mesial views had and estimated marginal gap from 101.9 to 133.9 microns for E-max crowns and 126.4 to 165.4 microns for zirconia. No significant differences were found between model and model-less techniques. CONCLUSION: Lithium disilicate restorations exhibited a more accurate and consistent marginal adaptation when compared to zirconia crowns. No statistically significant differences were observed when comparing model or model-less approaches.

The relationship between the vitamin serum 25(OH)D and the B12 concentrations in obese women.

PubMed

Curic, Nikola; Ilincic, Branislava; Milic, Natasa; Cabarkapa, Velibor; Nikolic, Stanislava; Medic-Stojanoska, Milica; Pellicano, Rinaldo; Abenavoli, Ludovico

2018-04-01

In obesity, low levels of vitamin D (VD) and vitamin B12 (VB12) may be the result of different pathophysiological mechanisms, but the possible association between them has not been defined yet. The aim of this cross-sectional analysis was to investigate the possible relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and VB12 levels in middle aged women. In 80 women, we indirectly evaluated body composition and body volumes [extracellular fluid volume (ECV) and total body water (TBW)] by anthropometric and bioelectrical impedance analysis. Vitamin D and VB12 status was assessed by laboratory measurement [serum 25(OH)D levels by electrochemiluminescent immunoassay; VB12 by chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay]. Obese women were mostly VD deficient [25(OH)D below 50 nmol/L; 40/50, 80%]. Also, among obese we observed presence of VB12 deficiency [VB12 below 148 pmol/L; 13/50, 26%) and marginal depletion of VB12 level (marginal VB12 status 148-221 pmol/L; 20/50, 40%). All anthropometric indicators of obesity, ECV and TBW were significantly associated with both, 25(OH)D and VB12 (P<0.001) levels. In univariate regression analysis serum level of 25(OH)D was significantly associated with VB12 levels (R2=0.170, P<0.001). In regression models, 25(OH)D was significantly associated with VB12 level, independently of fat mass and extracellular fluid volume. Obesity may negatively affect VB12 level, indirectly, by reducing 25(OH)D level in middle aged women.

A climate-based multivariate extreme emulator of met-ocean-hydrological events for coastal flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camus, Paula; Rueda, Ana; Mendez, Fernando J.; Tomas, Antonio; Del Jesus, Manuel; Losada, Iñigo J.

2015-04-01

Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to analyze large-scale climate variability (long-term historical periods, future climate projections). However, applications such as coastal flood modeling require climate information at finer scale. Besides, flooding events depend on multiple climate conditions: waves, surge levels from the open-ocean and river discharge caused by precipitation. Therefore, a multivariate statistical downscaling approach is adopted to reproduce relationships between variables and due to its low computational cost. The proposed method can be considered as a hybrid approach which combines a probabilistic weather type downscaling model with a stochastic weather generator component. Predictand distributions are reproduced modeling the relationship with AOGCM predictors based on a physical division in weather types (Camus et al., 2012). The multivariate dependence structure of the predictand (extreme events) is introduced linking the independent marginal distributions of the variables by a probabilistic copula regression (Ben Ayala et al., 2014). This hybrid approach is applied for the downscaling of AOGCM data to daily precipitation and maximum significant wave height and storm-surge in different locations along the Spanish coast. Reanalysis data is used to assess the proposed method. A commonly predictor for the three variables involved is classified using a regression-guided clustering algorithm. The most appropriate statistical model (general extreme value distribution, pareto distribution) for daily conditions is fitted. Stochastic simulation of the present climate is performed obtaining the set of hydraulic boundary conditions needed for high resolution coastal flood modeling. References: Camus, P., Menéndez, M., Méndez, F.J., Izaguirre, C., Espejo, A., Cánovas, V., Pérez, J., Rueda, A., Losada, I.J., Medina, R. (2014b). A weather-type statistical downscaling framework for ocean wave climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi: 10.1002/2014JC010141. Ben Ayala, M.A., Chebana, F., Ouarda, T.B.M.J. (2014). Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 27, 3331-3347.

Geomorphic response of a continental margin to tectonic and eustatic variations, the Levant margin during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben Moshe, Liran; Ben-Avraham, Zvi; Enzel, Yehouda; Uri, Schattner

2017-04-01

During the Messinian Salinity Crisis (MSC, 5.97±0.01-5.33 Ma) the Mediterranean Levant margin experienced major eustatic and sedimentary cycles as well as tectonic motion along the nearby Dead Sea fault plate boundary. New structures formed along this margin with morphology responding to these changes. Our study focuses on changes in this morphology across the margin. It is based on interpretation of three 3D seismic reflection volumes from offshore Israel. Multi-attribute analysis aided the extraction of key reflectors. Morphologic analysis of these data quantified interacting eustasy, sedimentation, and tectonics. Late Messinian morphologic domains include: (a) continental shelf; (b) 'Delta' anticline, forming a ridge diagonal to the strike of the margin; (c) southward dipping 'Hadera' valley, separating between (a) and (b); (d) 'Delta Gap' - a water gap crossing perpendicular to the anticline axis, exhibiting a sinuous thalweg; (e) continental slope. Drainage across the margin developed in several stages. Remains of turbidite flows crossing the margin down-slope were spotted across the 'Delta' anticline. These flows accumulated with the MSC evaporate sequence and prior to the anticline folding. Rising of the anticline, above the then bathymetry, either blocked or diverted the turbidites. That rising also defined the Hadera valley. In-situ evaporates, covering the valley floor, are, in turn covered by a fan-delta at the distal end of the valley. The fan-delta complex contains eroded evaporites and Lago-Mare fauna. Its top is truncated by dendritic fluvial channels that drained towards the Delta Gap. The Delta Gap was carved through the Delta ridge in a morphological and structural transition zone. We propose that during the first stages of the MSC (5.97±0.01-5.59 ma) destabilization of the continental slope due to oscillating sea level produced gravity currents that flowed through the pre-existing Delta anticline. Subsequent folding of the Delta anticline diverted several flows towards the Delta Gap during peak MSC desiccation phase (5.59-5.5 ma). This resulted in sub-aerial incision of a canyon across the gap that outpaced the tectonic uplift of the anticline. During the Lago-Mare regression (5.5-5.33 ma) a fluvio-marine sequence was deposited in the already formed Hadera valley. Another regression before the Zanclean flood (5.33 ma) eroded the top of this sequence and rejuvenated the Delta Gap canyon.

Robust boosting via convex optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rätsch, Gunnar

2001-12-01

In this work we consider statistical learning problems. A learning machine aims to extract information from a set of training examples such that it is able to predict the associated label on unseen examples. We consider the case where the resulting classification or regression rule is a combination of simple rules - also called base hypotheses. The so-called boosting algorithms iteratively find a weighted linear combination of base hypotheses that predict well on unseen data. We address the following issues: o The statistical learning theory framework for analyzing boosting methods. We study learning theoretic guarantees on the prediction performance on unseen examples. Recently, large margin classification techniques emerged as a practical result of the theory of generalization, in particular Boosting and Support Vector Machines. A large margin implies a good generalization performance. Hence, we analyze how large the margins in boosting are and find an improved algorithm that is able to generate the maximum margin solution. o How can boosting methods be related to mathematical optimization techniques? To analyze the properties of the resulting classification or regression rule, it is of high importance to understand whether and under which conditions boosting converges. We show that boosting can be used to solve large scale constrained optimization problems, whose solutions are well characterizable. To show this, we relate boosting methods to methods known from mathematical optimization, and derive convergence guarantees for a quite general family of boosting algorithms. o How to make Boosting noise robust? One of the problems of current boosting techniques is that they are sensitive to noise in the training sample. In order to make boosting robust, we transfer the soft margin idea from support vector learning to boosting. We develop theoretically motivated regularized algorithms that exhibit a high noise robustness. o How to adapt boosting to regression problems? Boosting methods are originally designed for classification problems. To extend the boosting idea to regression problems, we use the previous convergence results and relations to semi-infinite programming to design boosting-like algorithms for regression problems. We show that these leveraging algorithms have desirable theoretical and practical properties. o Can boosting techniques be useful in practice? The presented theoretical results are guided by simulation results either to illustrate properties of the proposed algorithms or to show that they work well in practice. We report on successful applications in a non-intrusive power monitoring system, chaotic time series analysis and a drug discovery process. --- Anmerkung: Der Autor ist Träger des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2001/2002. In dieser Arbeit werden statistische Lernprobleme betrachtet. Lernmaschinen extrahieren Informationen aus einer gegebenen Menge von Trainingsmustern, so daß sie in der Lage sind, Eigenschaften von bisher ungesehenen Mustern - z.B. eine Klassenzugehörigkeit - vorherzusagen. Wir betrachten den Fall, bei dem die resultierende Klassifikations- oder Regressionsregel aus einfachen Regeln - den Basishypothesen - zusammengesetzt ist. Die sogenannten Boosting Algorithmen erzeugen iterativ eine gewichtete Summe von Basishypothesen, die gut auf ungesehenen Mustern vorhersagen. Die Arbeit behandelt folgende Sachverhalte: o Die zur Analyse von Boosting-Methoden geeignete Statistische Lerntheorie. Wir studieren lerntheoretische Garantien zur Abschätzung der Vorhersagequalität auf ungesehenen Mustern. Kürzlich haben sich sogenannte Klassifikationstechniken mit großem Margin als ein praktisches Ergebnis dieser Theorie herausgestellt - insbesondere Boosting und Support-Vektor-Maschinen. Ein großer Margin impliziert eine hohe Vorhersagequalität der Entscheidungsregel. Deshalb wird analysiert, wie groß der Margin bei Boosting ist und ein verbesserter Algorithmus vorgeschlagen, der effizient Regeln mit maximalem Margin erzeugt. o Was ist der Zusammenhang von Boosting und Techniken der konvexen Optimierung? Um die Eigenschaften der entstehenden Klassifikations- oder Regressionsregeln zu analysieren, ist es sehr wichtig zu verstehen, ob und unter welchen Bedingungen iterative Algorithmen wie Boosting konvergieren. Wir zeigen, daß solche Algorithmen benutzt werden koennen, um sehr große Optimierungsprobleme mit Nebenbedingungen zu lösen, deren Lösung sich gut charakterisieren laesst. Dazu werden Verbindungen zum Wissenschaftsgebiet der konvexen Optimierung aufgezeigt und ausgenutzt, um Konvergenzgarantien für eine große Familie von Boosting-ähnlichen Algorithmen zu geben. o Kann man Boosting robust gegenüber Meßfehlern und Ausreissern in den Daten machen? Ein Problem bisheriger Boosting-Methoden ist die relativ hohe Sensitivität gegenüber Messungenauigkeiten und Meßfehlern in der Trainingsdatenmenge. Um dieses Problem zu beheben, wird die sogenannte 'Soft-Margin' Idee, die beim Support-Vector Lernen schon benutzt wird, auf Boosting übertragen. Das führt zu theoretisch gut motivierten, regularisierten Algorithmen, die ein hohes Maß an Robustheit aufweisen. o Wie kann man die Anwendbarkeit von Boosting auf Regressionsprobleme erweitern? Boosting-Methoden wurden ursprünglich für Klassifikationsprobleme entwickelt. Um die Anwendbarkeit auf Regressionsprobleme zu erweitern, werden die vorherigen Konvergenzresultate benutzt und neue Boosting-ähnliche Algorithmen zur Regression entwickelt. Wir zeigen, daß diese Algorithmen gute theoretische und praktische Eigenschaften haben. o Ist Boosting praktisch anwendbar? Die dargestellten theoretischen Ergebnisse werden begleitet von Simulationsergebnissen, entweder, um bestimmte Eigenschaften von Algorithmen zu illustrieren, oder um zu zeigen, daß sie in der Praxis tatsächlich gut funktionieren und direkt einsetzbar sind. Die praktische Relevanz der entwickelten Methoden wird in der Analyse chaotischer Zeitreihen und durch industrielle Anwendungen wie ein Stromverbrauch-Überwachungssystem und bei der Entwicklung neuer Medikamente illustriert.

Development of Jet Noise Power Spectral Laws Using SHJAR Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Khavaran, Abbas; Bridges, James

2009-01-01

High quality jet noise spectral data measured at the Aeroacoustic Propulsion Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center is used to examine a number of jet noise scaling laws. Configurations considered in the present study consist of convergent and convergent-divergent axisymmetric nozzles. Following the work of Viswanathan, velocity power factors are estimated using a least squares fit on spectral power density as a function of jet temperature and observer angle. The regression parameters are scrutinized for their uncertainty within the desired confidence margins. As an immediate application of the velocity power laws, spectral density in supersonic jets are decomposed into their respective components attributed to the jet mixing noise and broadband shock associated noise. Subsequent application of the least squares method on the shock power intensity shows that the latter also scales with some power of the shock parameter. A modified shock parameter is defined in order to reduce the dependency of the regression factors on the nozzle design point within the uncertainty margins of the least squares method.

Assessing Predictive Properties of Genome-Wide Selection in Soybeans

PubMed Central

Xavier, Alencar; Muir, William M.; Rainey, Katy Martin

2016-01-01

Many economically important traits in plant breeding have low heritability or are difficult to measure. For these traits, genomic selection has attractive features and may boost genetic gains. Our goal was to evaluate alternative scenarios to implement genomic selection for yield components in soybean (Glycine max L. merr). We used a nested association panel with cross validation to evaluate the impacts of training population size, genotyping density, and prediction model on the accuracy of genomic prediction. Our results indicate that training population size was the factor most relevant to improvement in genome-wide prediction, with greatest improvement observed in training sets up to 2000 individuals. We discuss assumptions that influence the choice of the prediction model. Although alternative models had minor impacts on prediction accuracy, the most robust prediction model was the combination of reproducing kernel Hilbert space regression and BayesB. Higher genotyping density marginally improved accuracy. Our study finds that breeding programs seeking efficient genomic selection in soybeans would best allocate resources by investing in a representative training set. PMID:27317786

Complex networks untangle competitive advantage in Australian football

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braham, Calum; Small, Michael

2018-05-01

We construct player-based complex network models of Australian football teams for the 2014 Australian Football League season; modelling the passes between players as weighted, directed edges. We show that analysis of these measures can give an insight into the underlying structure and strategy of Australian football teams, quantitatively distinguishing different playing styles. The relationships observed between network properties and match outcomes suggest that successful teams exhibit well-connected passing networks with the passes distributed between all 22 players as evenly as possible. Linear regression models of team scores and match margins show significant improvements in R2 and Bayesian information criterion when network measures are added to models that use conventional measures, demonstrating that network analysis measures contain useful, extra information. Several measures, particularly the mean betweenness centrality, are shown to be useful in predicting the outcomes of future matches, suggesting they measure some aspect of the intrinsic strength of teams. In addition, several local centrality measures are shown to be useful in analysing individual players' differing contributions to the team's structure.

Complex networks untangle competitive advantage in Australian football.

PubMed

Braham, Calum; Small, Michael

2018-05-01

We construct player-based complex network models of Australian football teams for the 2014 Australian Football League season; modelling the passes between players as weighted, directed edges. We show that analysis of these measures can give an insight into the underlying structure and strategy of Australian football teams, quantitatively distinguishing different playing styles. The relationships observed between network properties and match outcomes suggest that successful teams exhibit well-connected passing networks with the passes distributed between all 22 players as evenly as possible. Linear regression models of team scores and match margins show significant improvements in R 2 and Bayesian information criterion when network measures are added to models that use conventional measures, demonstrating that network analysis measures contain useful, extra information. Several measures, particularly the mean betweenness centrality, are shown to be useful in predicting the outcomes of future matches, suggesting they measure some aspect of the intrinsic strength of teams. In addition, several local centrality measures are shown to be useful in analysing individual players' differing contributions to the team's structure.

Safety margins in the implementation of planetary quarantine requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schalkowsky, S.; Jacoby, I.

1972-01-01

The formulation of planetary quarantine requirements, and their implementation as determined by a risk allocation model, is discussed. The model defines control safety margins with particular emphasis on utility in achieving the desired minimization of excessive margins, and their effect on implementation procedures.

Northeastern Brazilian margin: Regional tectonic evolution based on integrated analysis of seismic reflection and potential field data and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaich, Olav A.; Tsikalas, Filippos; Faleide, Jan Inge

2008-10-01

Integration of regional seismic reflection and potential field data along the northeastern Brazilian margin, complemented by crustal-scale gravity modelling, is used to reveal and illustrate onshore-offshore crustal structure correlation, the character of the continent-ocean boundary, and the relationship of crustal structure to regional variation of potential field anomalies. The study reveals distinct along-margin structural and magmatic changes that are spatially related to a number of conjugate Brazil-West Africa transfer systems, governing the margin segmentation and evolution. Several conceptual tectonic models are invoked to explain the structural evolution of the different margin segments in a conjugate margin context. Furthermore, the constructed transects, the observed and modelled Moho relief, and the potential field anomalies indicate that the Recôncavo, Tucano and Jatobá rift system may reflect a polyphase deformation rifting-mode associated with a complex time-dependent thermal structure of the lithosphere. The constructed transects and available seismic reflection profiles, indicate that the northern part of the study area lacks major breakup-related magmatic activity, suggesting a rifted non-volcanic margin affinity. In contrast, the southern part of the study area is characterized by abrupt crustal thinning and evidence for breakup magmatic activity, suggesting that this region evolved, partially, with a rifted volcanic margin affinity and character.

Titrating versus targeting home care services to frail elderly clients: an application of agency theory and cost-benefit analysis to home care policy.

PubMed

Weissert, William; Chernew, Michael; Hirth, Richard

2003-02-01

The article summarizes the shortcomings of current home care targeting policy, provides a conceptual framework for understanding the sources of its problems, and proposes an alternative resource allocation method. Methods required for different aspects of the study included synthesis of the published literature, regression analysis of risk predictors, and comparison of actual resource allocations with simulated budgets. Problems of imperfect agency ranging from unclear goals and inappropriate incentives to lack of information about the marginal effectiveness of home care could be mitigated with an improved budgeting method that combines client selection and resource allocation. No program can produce its best outcome performance when its goals are unclear and its technology is unstandardized. Titration of care would reallocate resources to maximize marginal benefit for marginal cost.

A Comparison of Marginal Gaps of All-Ceramic Crowns Constructed from Scanned Impressions and Models.

PubMed

Tabesh, Raena; Dudley, James

This study compared the marginal gaps of computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacture (CAD/CAM)-fabricated all-ceramic crowns constructed from scanned impressions and models and with two different occlusal reduction designs. Two typodont mandibular first molars were prepared to receive CAD/CAM-fabricated all-ceramic crowns. Both molars were prepared to ideal crown reduction, the first with anatomical occlusal reduction (AOR) and the second with completely flat occlusal reduction (FOR). Nine polyvinyl siloxane impressions (PVS) were taken, and nine stone replicas fabricated for each preparation. All impressions and stone models were scanned using a laser scanner (Planmeca Planscan, E4D technologies), and 36 lithium disilicate (IPS e.max CAD) crowns were milled. The marginal gap was measured in four locations using a light stereomicroscope. Crowns constructed from preparations with both occlusal reduction designs demonstrated similar marginal gaps (FOR = 97.98; AOR = 89.12; P = .739). However, all crowns constructed from scanned impressions presented significantly larger marginal gaps than the crowns fabricated from scanned models (impressions = 109.26; models = 77.84; P = .002). Scanning stone models produced all-ceramic crowns with significantly smaller marginal gaps than scanning impressions, irrespective of the occlusal reduction design.

[Influence of different designs of marginal preparation on stress distribution in the mandibular premolar restored with endocrown].

PubMed

Guo, Jing; Wang, Xiao-Yu; Li, Xue-Sheng; Sun, Hai-Yang; Liu, Lin; Li, Hong-Bo

2016-02-01

To evaluate the effect of different designs of marginal preparation on stress distribution in the mandibular premolar restored with endocrown using three-dimensional finite element method. Four models with different designs of marginal preparation, including the flat margin, 90° shoulder, 135° shoulder and chamfer shoulder, were established to imitate mandibular first premolar restored with endocrown. A load of 100 N was applied to the intersection of the long axis and the occlusal surface, either parallel or with an angle of 45° to the long axis of the tooth. The maximum values of Von Mises stress and the stress distribution around the cervical region of the abutment and the endocrown with different designs of marginal preparation were analyzed. The load parallel to the long axis of the tooth caused obvious stress concentration in the lingual portions of both the cervical region of the tooth tissue and the restoration. The stress distribution characteristics on the cervical region of the models with a flat margin and a 90° shoulder were more uniform than those in the models with a 135° shoulder and chamfer shoulder. Loading at 45° to the long axis caused stress concentration mainly on the buccal portion of the cervical region, and the model with a flat margin showed the most favorable stress distribution patterns with a greater maximum Von Mises stress under this circumstance than that with a parallel loading. Irrespective of the loading direction, the stress value was the lowest in the flat margin model, where the stress value in the cervical region of the endocrown was greater than that in the counterpart of the tooth tissue. The stress level on the enamel was higher than that on the dentin nearby in the flat margin model. From the stress distribution point of view, endocrowns with flat margin followed by a 90° shoulder are recommended.

Negative Stress Margins - Are They Real?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Raju, Ivatury S.; Lee, Darlene S.; Mohaghegh, Michael

2011-01-01

Advances in modeling and simulation, new finite element software, modeling engines and powerful computers are providing opportunities to interrogate designs in a very different manner and in a more detailed approach than ever before. Margins of safety are also often evaluated using local stresses for various design concepts and design parameters quickly once analysis models are defined and developed. This paper suggests that not all the negative margins of safety evaluated are real. The structural areas where negative margins are frequently encountered are often near stress concentrations, point loads and load discontinuities, near locations of stress singularities, in areas having large gradients but with insufficient mesh density, in areas with modeling issues and modeling errors, and in areas with connections and interfaces, in two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) transitions, bolts and bolt modeling, and boundary conditions. Now, more than ever, structural analysts need to examine and interrogate their analysis results and perform basic sanity checks to determine if these negative margins are real.

Lateral view dissection of the prostato-urethral junction to reduce positive apical margin in laparoscopic radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Sasaki, Hiroshi; Miki, Jun; Kimura, Takahiro; Sanuki, Kunitaro; Miki, Kenta; Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Egawa, Shin

2009-08-01

To assess the impact of lateral view apical dissection in laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP) on the reduction of positive surgical margin rates and recovery of postoperative continence. One hundred and forty-four consecutive patients underwent LRP from October 2004 to March 2008. Lateral view dissection of the prostato-urethral junction was conducted in 76 of them (Group 2). Standard dissection was used in the remaining patients (Group 1). The effect of this technical modification on the reduction of positive surgical margin rates and postoperative recovery of urinary continence was assessed in the two groups. Overall, the incidence of positive margins decreased from 23 (35.9%) in Group 1 to 16 cases (21.9%) in Group 2 (P = 0.07). Positive margin rates in pT2 decreased from 30.6% to 6.5% (P = 0.006). Apical and dorso-apical margins were reduced from 26.5% to 4.3% (P = 0.009) and from 10.2% to 0% (P < 0.001), respectively. Postoperative recovery of urinary continence improved significantly, with a pad-free rate over the first 3 months of 55.9% in Group 1 vs 71.7% in Group 2 (P = 0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed this modified surgical technique to predict a lower rate of positive margins. Lateral view dissection of the prostato-urethral junction is an easily applicable technical modification. It provides better visualization of apical anatomy substantially contributing to the reduction of positive surgical margin rates, especially at the level of prostatic apex.

Hospital financial management: what is the link between revenue cycle management, profitability, and not-for-profit hospitals' ability to grow equity?

PubMed

Singh, Simone Rauscher; Wheeler, John

2012-01-01

Effective revenue cycle management--from appointment scheduling and patient registration at the front end of the revenue cycle to billing and cash collections at the back end--plays a crucial role in hospitals' efforts to improve their financial performance. Using data for 1,397 bond-issuing, not-for-profit US hospitals for 2000 to 2007, this study analyzed the relationship between hospitals' performance at managing the revenue cycle and their profitability and ability to build equity capital. Hospital-level fixed effects regression analysis was used to model four different measures of profitability and equity capital as functions of two key financial indicators of revenue cycle management--amount of patient revenue and speed of revenue collection. The results indicated that higher amounts of patient revenue in relation to a hospital's assets were associated with statistically significant increases in operating and total profit margins, free cash flow, and equity capital (p < 0.01 for all four models); that is, hospitals that generated more patient revenue per dollar of assets invested reported improved financial performance. Likewise, a statistically significant link existed between lower revenue collection periods and all four indicators of hospital financial performance (p < 0.01 for three models; p < 0.05 for one model). Hospitals that collected faster on their patient revenue reported higher profit margins and larger equity values. For revenue cycle managers, these findings represent good news: Streamlining a hospital's management of the patient revenue cycle can advance the organization's financial viability by improving profitability and enabling equity growth.

Factors related to clinical pregnancy after vitrified-warmed embryo transfer: a retrospective and multivariate logistic regression analysis of 2313 transfer cycles.

PubMed

Shi, Wenhao; Zhang, Silin; Zhao, Wanqiu; Xia, Xue; Wang, Min; Wang, Hui; Bai, Haiyan; Shi, Juanzi

2013-07-01

What factors does multivariate logistic regression show to be significantly associated with the likelihood of clinical pregnancy in vitrified-warmed embryo transfer (VET) cycles? Assisted hatching (AH) and if the reason to freeze embryos was to avoid the risk of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) were significantly positively associated with a greater likelihood of clinical pregnancy. Single factor analysis has shown AH, number of embryos transferred and the reason of freezing for OHSS to be positively and damaged blastomere to be negatively significantly associated with the chance of clinical pregnancy after VET. It remains unclear what factors would be significant after multivariate analysis. The study was a retrospective analysis of 2313 VET cycles from 1481 patients performed between January 2008 and April 2012. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors to affect clinical pregnancy outcome of VET. There were 22 candidate variables selected based on clinical experiences and the literature. With the thresholds of α entry = α removal= 0.05 for both variable entry and variable removal, eight variables were chosen to contribute the multivariable model by the bootstrap stepwise variable selection algorithm (n = 1000). Eight variables were age at controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH), reason for freezing, AH, endometrial thickness, damaged blastomere, number of embryos transferred, number of good-quality embryos, and blood presence on transfer catheter. A descriptive comparison of the relative importance was accomplished by the proportion of explained variation (PEV). Among the reasons for freezing, the OHSS group showed a higher OR than the surplus embryo group when compared with other reasons for VET groups (OHSS versus Other, OR: 2.145; CI: 1.4-3.286; Surplus embryos versus Other, OR: 1.152; CI: 0.761-1.743) and high PEV (marginal 2.77%, P = 0.2911; partial 1.68%; CI of area under receptor operator characteristic curve (ROC): 0.5576-0.6000). AH also showed a high OR (OR: 2.105, CI: 1.554-2.85) and high PEV (marginal 1.97%; partial 1.02%; CI of area under ROC: 0.5344-0.5647). The number of good-quality embryos showed the highest marginal PEV and partial PEV (marginal 3.91%, partial 2.28%; CI of area under ROC: 0.5886-0.6343). This was a retrospective multivariate analysis of the data obtained in 5 years from a single IVF center. Repeated cycles in the same woman were treated as independent observations, which could introduce bias. Results are based on clinical pregnancy and not live births. Prospective analysis of a larger data set from a multicenter study based on live births is necessary to confirm the findings. Paying attention to the quality of embryos, the number of good embryos, AH and the reasons for freezing that are associated with clinical pregnancy after VET will assist the improvement of success rates.

The impact of smoking on marginal bone loss in a 10-year prospective longitudinal study.

PubMed

Bahrami, Golnosh; Vaeth, Michael; Kirkevang, Lise-Lotte; Wenzel, Ann; Isidor, Flemming

2016-09-21

The aim of this epidemiologic study was to determine the impact of smoking on marginal bone loss in a subsample derived from an original randomly selected adult sample, after adjusting for oral and general factors. The number of participants at baseline in this 10-year longitudinal study was 616 (mean age: 42 years, range 21-63 years). The participants underwent a full-mouth radiographic survey. After recall in 2003, 473 (77%) of the participants accepted and completed an identical survey. In 2008, the survey was repeated, and 301 (48.9%) individuals were included in this study. The marginal bone level of each tooth was measured in mm. Age, gender, smoking habits, number of teeth, apical periodontitis, crowns and initial marginal bone level were also recorded for each individual. Only individuals who did not report a change in smoking habits during the 10-year period were included in the study. Multiple regression analyses were used to evaluate crude and adjusted associations between smoking and marginal bone loss. At the first, radiographic survey smokers had a statistically significantly more reduced marginal bone level (in average 0.9 mm) than nonsmokers. After 10 years, a progression of a mean marginal bone loss of > 2 mm was statistically significantly more common in smokers than in nonsmokers (7.1% and 0%, respectively). Furthermore, a marginal bone loss of 1-2 mm was observed in 29% of the smokers and 19% of the nonsmokers, and ≤ 1 mm marginal bone loss was found in 69% of smokers and 81% of nonsmokers. Even after adjusting for initial marginal bone level, gender, age, and also presence of apical periodontitis and crowns, the difference in progression of marginal bone loss was still statistically higher in smokers (on average 0.36 mm). The smokers started out with a more reduced marginal bone level than nonsmokers. However, even after adjusting for the initial marginal bone level, the progression of marginal bone loss in smokers was more pronounced than in nonsmokers. This shows that smoking is a factor with significant impact on the marginal bone level and can be assumed to be a true risk factor for marginal bone loss. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Community mapping of sex work criminalization and violence: impacts on HIV treatment interruptions among marginalized women living with HIV in Vancouver, Canada.

PubMed

Goldenberg, Shira M; Deering, Kathleen; Amram, Ofer; Guillemi, Silvia; Nguyen, Paul; Montaner, Julio; Shannon, Kate

2017-09-01

Despite the high HIV burden faced by sex workers, data on access and retention in antiretroviral therapy (ART) are limited. Using an innovative spatial epidemiological approach, we explored how the social geography of sex work criminalization and violence impacts HIV treatment interruptions among sex workers living with HIV in Vancouver over a 3.5-year period. Drawing upon data from a community-based cohort (AESHA, 2010-2013) and linked external administrative data on ART dispensation, GIS mapping and multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations to prospectively examine the effects of spatial criminalization and violence near women's places of residence on 2-day ART interruptions. Analyses were restricted to 66 ART-exposed women who contributed 208 observations and 83 ART interruption events. In adjusted multivariable models, heightened density of displacement due to policing independently correlated with HIV treatment interruptions (AOR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00-1.04); density of legal restrictions (AOR: 1.30, 95%CI: 0.97-1.76) and a combined measure of criminalization/violence (AOR: 1.00, 95%CI: 1.00-1.01) were marginally correlated. The social geography of sex work criminalization may undermine access to essential medicines, including HIV treatment. Interventions to promote 'enabling environments' (e.g. peer-led models, safer living/working spaces) should be explored, alongside policy reforms to ensure uninterrupted treatment access.

[Spatial heterogeneity in body condition of small yellow croaker in Yellow Sea and East China Sea based on mixed-effects model and quantile regression analysis].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-Lei; Yuan, Xing-Wei; Yan, Li-Ping; Yang, Lin-Lin; Cheng, Jia-Hua

2013-09-01

By using the 2008-2010 investigation data about the body condition of small yellow croaker in the offshore waters of southern Yellow Sea (SYS), open waters of northern East China Sea (NECS), and offshore waters of middle East China Sea (MECS), this paper analyzed the spatial heterogeneity of body length-body mass of juvenile and adult small yellow croakers by the statistical approaches of mean regression model and quantile regression model. The results showed that the residual standard errors from the analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) and the linear mixed-effects model were similar, and those from the simple linear regression were the highest. For the juvenile small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in SYS and NECS estimated by the mixed-effects mean regression model was higher than the overall average mass across the three regions, while the mean body mass in MECS was below the overall average. For the adult small yellow croakers, their mean body mass in NECS was higher than the overall average, while the mean body mass in SYS and MECS was below the overall average. The results from quantile regression indicated the substantial differences in the allometric relationships of juvenile small yellow croakers between SYS, NECS, and MECS, with the estimated mean exponent of the allometric relationship in SYS being 2.85, and the interquartile range being from 2.63 to 2.96, which indicated the heterogeneity of body form. The results from ANCOVA showed that the allometric body length-body mass relationships were significantly different between the 25th and 75th percentile exponent values (F=6.38, df=1737, P<0.01) and the 25th percentile and median exponent values (F=2.35, df=1737, P=0.039). The relationship was marginally different between the median and 75th percentile exponent values (F=2.21, df=1737, P=0.051). The estimated body length-body mass exponent of adult small yellow croakers in SYS was 3.01 (10th and 95th percentiles = 2.77 and 3.1, respectively). The estimated body length-body mass relationships were significantly different from the lower and upper quantiles of the exponent (F=3.31, df=2793, P=0.01) and the median and upper quantiles (F=3.56, df=2793, P<0.01), while no significant difference was observed between the lower and median quantiles (F=0.98, df=2793, P=0.43).

Analyzing musculoskeletal neck pain, measured as present pain and periods of pain, with three different regression models: a cohort study.

PubMed

Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Andersson, Eva M; Hagberg, Mats

2009-06-19

In the literature there are discussions on the choice of outcome and the need for more longitudinal studies of musculoskeletal disorders. The general aim of this longitudinal study was to analyze musculoskeletal neck pain, in a group of young adults. Specific aims were to determine whether psychosocial factors, computer use, high work/study demands, and lifestyle are long-term or short-term factors for musculoskeletal neck pain, and whether these factors are important for developing or ongoing musculoskeletal neck pain. Three regression models were used to analyze the different outcomes. Pain at present was analyzed with a marginal logistic model, for number of years with pain a Poisson regression model was used and for developing and ongoing pain a logistic model was used. Presented results are odds ratios and proportion ratios (logistic models) and rate ratios (Poisson model). The material consisted of web-based questionnaires answered by 1204 Swedish university students from a prospective cohort recruited in 2002. Perceived stress was a risk factor for pain at present (PR = 1.6), for developing pain (PR = 1.7) and for number of years with pain (RR = 1.3). High work/study demands was associated with pain at present (PR = 1.6); and with number of years with pain when the demands negatively affect home life (RR = 1.3). Computer use pattern (number of times/week with a computer session > or = 4 h, without break) was a risk factor for developing pain (PR = 1.7), but also associated with pain at present (PR = 1.4) and number of years with pain (RR = 1.2). Among life style factors smoking (PR = 1.8) was found to be associated to pain at present. The difference between men and women in prevalence of musculoskeletal pain was confirmed in this study. It was smallest for the outcome ongoing pain (PR = 1.4) compared to pain at present (PR = 2.4) and developing pain (PR = 2.5). By using different regression models different aspects of neck pain pattern could be addressed and the risk factors impact on pain pattern was identified. Short-term risk factors were perceived stress, high work/study demands and computer use pattern (break pattern). Those were also long-term risk factors. For developing pain perceived stress and computer use pattern were risk factors.

Analyzing musculoskeletal neck pain, measured as present pain and periods of pain, with three different regression models: a cohort study

PubMed Central

Grimby-Ekman, Anna; Andersson, Eva M; Hagberg, Mats

2009-01-01

Background In the literature there are discussions on the choice of outcome and the need for more longitudinal studies of musculoskeletal disorders. The general aim of this longitudinal study was to analyze musculoskeletal neck pain, in a group of young adults. Specific aims were to determine whether psychosocial factors, computer use, high work/study demands, and lifestyle are long-term or short-term factors for musculoskeletal neck pain, and whether these factors are important for developing or ongoing musculoskeletal neck pain. Methods Three regression models were used to analyze the different outcomes. Pain at present was analyzed with a marginal logistic model, for number of years with pain a Poisson regression model was used and for developing and ongoing pain a logistic model was used. Presented results are odds ratios and proportion ratios (logistic models) and rate ratios (Poisson model). The material consisted of web-based questionnaires answered by 1204 Swedish university students from a prospective cohort recruited in 2002. Results Perceived stress was a risk factor for pain at present (PR = 1.6), for developing pain (PR = 1.7) and for number of years with pain (RR = 1.3). High work/study demands was associated with pain at present (PR = 1.6); and with number of years with pain when the demands negatively affect home life (RR = 1.3). Computer use pattern (number of times/week with a computer session ≥ 4 h, without break) was a risk factor for developing pain (PR = 1.7), but also associated with pain at present (PR = 1.4) and number of years with pain (RR = 1.2). Among life style factors smoking (PR = 1.8) was found to be associated to pain at present. The difference between men and women in prevalence of musculoskeletal pain was confirmed in this study. It was smallest for the outcome ongoing pain (PR = 1.4) compared to pain at present (PR = 2.4) and developing pain (PR = 2.5). Conclusion By using different regression models different aspects of neck pain pattern could be addressed and the risk factors impact on pain pattern was identified. Short-term risk factors were perceived stress, high work/study demands and computer use pattern (break pattern). Those were also long-term risk factors. For developing pain perceived stress and computer use pattern were risk factors. PMID:19545386

[Economic Evaluation of Integrated Care Systems - Scientific Standard Specifications, Challenges, Best Practice Model].

PubMed

Pimperl, A; Schreyögg, J; Rothgang, H; Busse, R; Glaeske, G; Hildebrandt, H

2015-12-01

 Transparency of economic performance of integrated care systems (IV) is a basic requirement for the acceptance and further development of integrated care. Diverse evaluation methods are used but are seldom openly discussed because of the proprietary nature of the different business models. The aim of this article is to develop a generic model for measuring economic performance of IV interventions.  A catalogue of five quality criteria is used to discuss different evaluation methods -(uncontrolled before-after-studies, control group-based approaches, regression models). On this -basis a best practice model is proposed.  A regression model based on the German morbidity-based risk structure equalisation scheme (MorbiRSA) has some benefits in comparison to the other methods mentioned. In particular it requires less resources to be implemented and offers advantages concerning the relia-bility and the transparency of the method (=important for acceptance). Also validity is sound. Although RCTs and - also to a lesser -extent - complex difference-in-difference matching approaches can lead to a higher validity of the results, their feasibility in real life settings is limited due to economic and practical reasons. That is why central criticisms of a MorbiRSA-based model were addressed, adaptions proposed and incorporated in a best practice model: Population-oriented morbidity adjusted margin improvement model (P-DBV(MRSA)).  The P-DBV(MRSA) approach may be used as a standardised best practice model for the economic evaluation of IV. Parallel to the proposed approach for measuring economic performance a balanced, quality-oriented performance measurement system should be introduced. This should prevent incentivising IV-players to undertake short-term cost cutting at the expense of quality. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

All-on-4® Treatment Concept for the Rehabilitation of the Completely Edentulous Mandible: A 7-Year Clinical and 5-Year Radiographic Retrospective Case Series with Risk Assessment for Implant Failure and Marginal Bone Level.

PubMed

Maló, Paulo; de Araújo Nobre, Miguel; Lopes, Armando; Ferro, Ana; Gravito, Inês

2015-10-01

Studies are needed to evaluate long-term outcomes of the All-on-4® treatment concept (Nobel Biocare AB) for rehabilitation of edentulous mandibles by assessing marginal bone levels and risk indicators for implant failure. To evaluate 7-year clinical outcomes and 5-year radiographic outcomes of the All-on-4 treatment concept. This retrospective case series included patients admitted for implant rehabilitations in the mandible, who were followed for 7 years clinically and 5 years radiographically. Primary outcome measures were cumulative prosthetic and implant survival using patient as the unit of analysis (Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator). Secondary outcome measure was marginal bone level (MBL) at 5 years. Variables associated with implant failure were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Binary logistic regression was used to compute odds ratio (OR) with 95% CIs for variables associated with MBL ≥2.8 mm at 5 years. A total of 324 patients (194 women, 130 men, average age = 58.9 years) were rehabilitated with 1,296 implants supporting 324 full-arch fixed immediately loaded mandibular prostheses. Sixty-four patients (19.8%) were lost to follow-up. Prosthetic survival was 323/324 (99.7%), and 14 patients lost 18 implants, with an estimated cumulative survival rate of 95.4% at 7 years. Variables associated with implant failure were smoking (HR = 5.28; 95% CI: 1.33, 20.91]) and the learning curve effect (0.69 < HR < 0.33 for more experienced levels). Mean MBL at 5 years was 1.81 mm (95% CI: 1.70, 1.92), and smoking was associated with MBL ≥2.8 mm (OR = 2.4; 95% CI: 1.02, 5.62). The high implant and prosthetic survival rates and excellent MBL outcome confirm the predictability and safety of the All-on-4 treatment concept over a longer term than previously reported. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Comparing Revictimization in Two Groups of Marginalized Women

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tusher, Chantal Poister; Cook, Sarah L.

2010-01-01

This study examines physical and sexual revictimization in a random sample of incarcerated and poor, urban, nonincarcerated women using multiple measures of physical and sexual child abuse. Researchers used hierarchical logistic regression to compare rates of revictimization and the strength of the association between child abuse and adult…

An Examination of Perceived Constraints to Outdoor Recreation

Treesearch

G.T. Green; J.M. Bowker; X. Wang; H.K. Cordell; Cassandra Y. Johnson

2009-01-01

This study examines whether different social and marginalized groups in American society (minorities, women, rural dwellers, immigrants, low income, less educated) perceive more constraints or barriers to outdoor recreation participation than White middle-class males. Logistic regressions were applied to data from the National Survey on Recreation and the Environment...

Mastery Motivation and Expressive Language in Young Children with Hearing Loss.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pipp-Siegel, Sandra; Sedey, Allison L.; VanLeeuwen, Alison M.; Yoshinaga-Itano, Christine

2003-01-01

The relation between mastery motivation and expressive language was studied in 200 children (ages 7-67 months) with hearing loss. When demographic and hearing loss variables were entered into a regression equation, increased social/symbolic persistence was significantly related, and increased object-oriented persistence was marginally related, to…

A Profile of Latino School-Based Extracurricular Activity Involvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peguero, Anthony A.

2010-01-01

Participation in school-based extracurricular activities influences educational success. Thus, it is important to depict a profile of school-based extracurricular activity involvement for a Latino student population that is marginalized in schools. This research uses the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 and logistic regression analyses to…

Unified framework to evaluate panmixia and migration direction among multiple sampling locations.

PubMed

Beerli, Peter; Palczewski, Michal

2010-05-01

For many biological investigations, groups of individuals are genetically sampled from several geographic locations. These sampling locations often do not reflect the genetic population structure. We describe a framework using marginal likelihoods to compare and order structured population models, such as testing whether the sampling locations belong to the same randomly mating population or comparing unidirectional and multidirectional gene flow models. In the context of inferences employing Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, the accuracy of the marginal likelihoods depends heavily on the approximation method used to calculate the marginal likelihood. Two methods, modified thermodynamic integration and a stabilized harmonic mean estimator, are compared. With finite Markov chain Monte Carlo run lengths, the harmonic mean estimator may not be consistent. Thermodynamic integration, in contrast, delivers considerably better estimates of the marginal likelihood. The choice of prior distributions does not influence the order and choice of the better models when the marginal likelihood is estimated using thermodynamic integration, whereas with the harmonic mean estimator the influence of the prior is pronounced and the order of the models changes. The approximation of marginal likelihood using thermodynamic integration in MIGRATE allows the evaluation of complex population genetic models, not only of whether sampling locations belong to a single panmictic population, but also of competing complex structured population models.

Bayesian feature selection for high-dimensional linear regression via the Ising approximation with applications to genomics.

PubMed

Fisher, Charles K; Mehta, Pankaj

2015-06-01

Feature selection, identifying a subset of variables that are relevant for predicting a response, is an important and challenging component of many methods in statistics and machine learning. Feature selection is especially difficult and computationally intensive when the number of variables approaches or exceeds the number of samples, as is often the case for many genomic datasets. Here, we introduce a new approach--the Bayesian Ising Approximation (BIA)-to rapidly calculate posterior probabilities for feature relevance in L2 penalized linear regression. In the regime where the regression problem is strongly regularized by the prior, we show that computing the marginal posterior probabilities for features is equivalent to computing the magnetizations of an Ising model with weak couplings. Using a mean field approximation, we show it is possible to rapidly compute the feature selection path described by the posterior probabilities as a function of the L2 penalty. We present simulations and analytical results illustrating the accuracy of the BIA on some simple regression problems. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the BIA to high-dimensional regression by analyzing a gene expression dataset with nearly 30 000 features. These results also highlight the impact of correlations between features on Bayesian feature selection. An implementation of the BIA in C++, along with data for reproducing our gene expression analyses, are freely available at http://physics.bu.edu/∼pankajm/BIACode. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Lung nodule malignancy prediction using multi-task convolutional neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiuli; Kao, Yueying; Shen, Wei; Li, Xiang; Xie, Guotong

2017-03-01

In this paper, we investigated the problem of diagnostic lung nodule malignancy prediction using thoracic Computed Tomography (CT) screening. Unlike most existing studies classify the nodules into two types benign and malignancy, we interpreted the nodule malignancy prediction as a regression problem to predict continuous malignancy level. We proposed a joint multi-task learning algorithm using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to capture nodule heterogeneity by extracting discriminative features from alternatingly stacked layers. We trained a CNN regression model to predict the nodule malignancy, and designed a multi-task learning mechanism to simultaneously share knowledge among 9 different nodule characteristics (Subtlety, Calcification, Sphericity, Margin, Lobulation, Spiculation, Texture, Diameter and Malignancy), and improved the final prediction result. Each CNN would generate characteristic-specific feature representations, and then we applied multi-task learning on the features to predict the corresponding likelihood for that characteristic. We evaluated the proposed method on 2620 nodules CT scans from LIDC-IDRI dataset with the 5-fold cross validation strategy. The multitask CNN regression result for regression RMSE and mapped classification ACC were 0.830 and 83.03%, while the results for single task regression RMSE 0.894 and mapped classification ACC 74.9%. Experiments show that the proposed method could predict the lung nodule malignancy likelihood effectively and outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. The learning framework could easily be applied in other anomaly likelihood prediction problem, such as skin cancer and breast cancer. It demonstrated the possibility of our method facilitating the radiologists for nodule staging assessment and individual therapeutic planning.

Bioenergy crop productivity and potential climate change mitigation from marginal lands in the United States: An ecosystem modeling perspective

DOE PAGES

Qin, Zhangcai; Zhuang, Qianlai; Cai, Ximing

2014-06-16

Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop–vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that,more » cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO 2eq l –1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO 2eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. Furthermore, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop–specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment.« less

A quantitative analysis of transtensional margin width

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeanniot, Ludovic; Buiter, Susanne J. H.

2018-06-01

Continental rifted margins show variations between a few hundred to almost a thousand kilometres in their conjugated widths from the relatively undisturbed continent to the oceanic crust. Analogue and numerical modelling results suggest that the conjugated width of rifted margins may have a relationship to their obliquity of divergence, with narrower margins occurring for higher obliquity. We here test this prediction by analysing the obliquity and rift width for 26 segments of transtensional conjugate rifted margins in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We use the plate reconstruction software GPlates (http://www.gplates.org) for different plate rotation models to estimate the direction and magnitude of rifting from the initial phases of continental rifting until breakup. Our rift width corresponds to the distance between the onshore maximum topography and the last identified continental crust. We find a weak positive correlation between the obliquity of rifting and rift width. Highly oblique margins are narrower than orthogonal margins, as expected from analogue and numerical models. We find no relationships between rift obliquities and rift duration nor the presence or absence of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs).

Essays in the California electricity reserves markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metaxoglou, Konstantinos

This dissertation examines inefficiencies in the California electricity reserves markets. In Chapter 1, I use the information released during the investigation of the state's electricity crisis of 2000 and 2001 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to diagnose allocative inefficiencies. Building upon the work of Wolak (2000), I calculate a lower bound for the sellers' price-cost margins using the inverse elasticities of their residual demand curves. The downward bias in my estimates stems from the fact that I don't account for the hierarchical substitutability of the reserve types. The margins averaged at least 20 percent for the two highest quality types of reserves, regulation and spinning, generating millions of dollars in transfers to a handful of sellers. I provide evidence that the deviations from marginal cost pricing were due to the markets' high concentration and a principal-agent relationship that emerged from their design. In Chapter 2, I document systematic differences between the markets' day- and hour-ahead prices. I use a high-dimensional vector moving average model to estimate the premia and conduct correct inferences. To obtain exact maximum likelihood estimates of the model, I employ the EM algorithm that I develop in Chapter 3. I uncover significant day-ahead premia, which I attribute to market design characteristics too. On the demand side, the market design established a principal-agent relationship between the markets' buyers (principal) and their supervisory authority (agent). The agent had very limited incentives to shift reserve purchases to the lower priced hour-ahead markets. On the supply side, the market design raised substantial entry barriers by precluding purely speculative trading and by introducing a complicated code of conduct that induced uncertainty about which actions were subject to regulatory scrutiny. In Chapter 3, I introduce a state-space representation for vector autoregressive moving average models that enables exact maximum likelihood estimation using the EM algorithm. Moreover, my algorithm uses only analytical expressions; it requires the Kalman filter and a fixed-interval smoother in the E step and least squares-type regression in the M step. In contrast, existing maximum likelihood estimation methods require numerical differentiation, both for univariate and multivariate models.

Leadership development practices and hospital financial outcomes.

PubMed

Crowe, Daniel; Garman, Andrew N; Li, Chien-Ching; Helton, Jeff; Anderson, Matthew M; Butler, Peter

2017-08-01

Affordable Care Act legislation is requiring leaders in US health systems to adapt to new and very different approaches to improving operating performance. Research from other industries suggests leadership development can be a helpful component of organizational change strategies; however, there is currently very little healthcare-specific research available to guide design and deployment. The goal of this exploratory study is to examine potential relationships between specific leadership development practices and health system financial outcomes. Results from the National Center for Healthcare Leadership survey of leadership development practices were correlated with hospital and health system financial performance data from the 2013 Medicare Cost Reports. A general linear regression model, controlling for payer mix, case-mix index, and bed size, was used to assess possible relationships between leadership practices and three financial performance metrics: operating margin, days cash on hand, and debt to capitalization. Statistically significant associations were found between hospital-level operating margins and 5 of the 11 leadership practices as well as the composite score. Relationships at the health system level, however, were not statistically significant. Results provide preliminary evidence of an association between hospital financial performance and investments made in developing their leaders.

An experimental and analytical investigation of isolated rotor flap-lag stability in forward flight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gaonkar, Gopal H.; Mcnulty, Michael J.

1985-01-01

For flap-lag stability of isolated rotors, experimental and analytical investigations are conducted in hover and forward flight on the adequacy of a linear quasi-steady aerodynamics theory with dynamic inflow. Forward flight effects on lag regressing mode are emphasized. Accordingly, a soft inplane hingeless rotor with three blades is tested at advance ratios as high as 0.55 and at shaft angles as high as 20 deg. The 1.62-m model rotor is untrimmed with an essentially unrestricted tilt of the tip path plane. By computerized symbolic manipulation, an analytical model is developed in substall to predict stability margins with mode indentification. It also predicts substall and stall regions to help explain the correlation between theory and data. The correlation shows both the strengths and weaknesses of the data and theory, and promotes further insights into areas in which further study is needed in substall and stall.

Investigating the Important Correlates of Maternal Education and Childhood Malaria Infections

PubMed Central

Njau, Joseph D.; Stephenson, Rob; Menon, Manoj P.; Kachur, S. Patrick; McFarland, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

The relationship between maternal education and child health has intrigued researchers for decades. This study explored the interaction between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. Cross-sectional survey data from three African countries were used. Descriptive analysis and multivariate logistic regression models were completed in line with identified correlates. Marginal effects and Oaxaca decomposition analysis on maternal education and childhood malaria infection were also estimated. Children with mothers whose education level was beyond primary school were 4.7% less likely to be malaria-positive (P < 0.001). The Oaxaca decomposition analysis exhibited an 8% gap in childhood malaria infection for educated and uneducated mothers. Over 60% of the gap was explained by differences in household wealth (26%), household place of domicile (21%), malaria transmission intensities (14%), and media exposure (12%). All other correlates accounted for only 27%. The full adjusted model showed a robust and significant relationship between maternal education and childhood malaria infection. PMID:25002302

Association of market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices: 1999 through 2001.

PubMed

McCue, Michael J; Kim, Tae Hyun

2005-01-01

Since the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, there has been a decline in the number of hospital acquisitions. Using data from 1999 through 2001, we examined the relationship between market, mission, operational, and financial factors on hospital acquisition prices. Using an ordinary least squares regression model, we found that acquiring multihospital systems paid a higher price for larger hospitals with fewer unoccupied beds and greater profitability. Although only marginally significant, we also found that acquiring hospital systems paid a higher purchase price for hospitals in near urban markets and for hospitals located in the Central region of the United States. From a policy standpoint, we found no significant difference in the purchase price paid between for-profit and nonprofit hospitals.

Not-for-profit hospital CEO performance and pay: some evidence from Connecticut.

PubMed

Kramer, Jeffrey; Santerre, Rexford E

2010-01-01

This paper uses observations from a panel data set of 35 chief executive officers (CEOs) from 29 not-for-profit hospitals in Connecticut over the period 1998 to 2006 to investigate the relationship between CEO performance and pay. Both economic and charity performance measures are specified in the empirical model. The multiple regression results reveal that not-for-profit hospital CEOs, at least in Connecticut, are driven at the margin to increase the occupancy rate of privately insured patients at the expense of uncompensated care and public-pay patients. This type of behavior on the part of not-for-profit hospital CEOs calls into question the desirability of allowing these hospitals a tax exemption on earned income, property, and purchases.

Clustering of unhealthy outdoor advertisements around child-serving institutions: a comparison of three cities.

PubMed

Hillier, Amy; Cole, Brian L; Smith, Tony E; Yancey, Antronette K; Williams, Jerome D; Grier, Sonya A; McCarthy, William J

2009-12-01

Using GPS devices and digital cameras, we surveyed outdoor advertisements in Austin, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. GIS and hot spot analysis revealed that unhealthy ads were clustered around child-serving institutions in Los Angeles and Philadelphia but not in Austin. Multivariate generalized least square (GLS) regression models showed that percent black (p<0.04) was a significant positive predictor of clustering in Philadelphia and percent white (p<0.06) was a marginally significant negative predictor of clustering in Los Angeles after controlling for several land use variables. The results emphasize the importance of zoning and land use regulations to protect children from exposure to unhealthy commercial messages, particularly in neighborhoods with significant racial/ethnic minority populations.

Omnibus risk assessment via accelerated failure time kernel machine modeling.

PubMed

Sinnott, Jennifer A; Cai, Tianxi

2013-12-01

Integrating genomic information with traditional clinical risk factors to improve the prediction of disease outcomes could profoundly change the practice of medicine. However, the large number of potential markers and possible complexity of the relationship between markers and disease make it difficult to construct accurate risk prediction models. Standard approaches for identifying important markers often rely on marginal associations or linearity assumptions and may not capture non-linear or interactive effects. In recent years, much work has been done to group genes into pathways and networks. Integrating such biological knowledge into statistical learning could potentially improve model interpretability and reliability. One effective approach is to employ a kernel machine (KM) framework, which can capture nonlinear effects if nonlinear kernels are used (Scholkopf and Smola, 2002; Liu et al., 2007, 2008). For survival outcomes, KM regression modeling and testing procedures have been derived under a proportional hazards (PH) assumption (Li and Luan, 2003; Cai, Tonini, and Lin, 2011). In this article, we derive testing and prediction methods for KM regression under the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, a useful alternative to the PH model. We approximate the null distribution of our test statistic using resampling procedures. When multiple kernels are of potential interest, it may be unclear in advance which kernel to use for testing and estimation. We propose a robust Omnibus Test that combines information across kernels, and an approach for selecting the best kernel for estimation. The methods are illustrated with an application in breast cancer. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

The effect of reimbursement on medical decision making: do physicians alter treatment in response to a managed care incentive?

PubMed

Melichar, Lori

2009-07-01

The empirical literature that explores whether physicians respond to financial incentives has not definitively answered the question of whether physicians alter their treatment behavior at the margin. Previous research has not been able to distinguish that part of a physician response that uniformly alters treatment of all patients under a physician's care from that which affects some, but not all of a physician's patients. To explore physicians' marginal responses to financial incentives while accounting for the selection of physicians into different financial arrangements where others could not, I use data from a survey of physician visits to isolate the effect that capitation, a form of reimbursement wherein physicians receive zero marginal revenue for a range of physician provided services, has on the care provided by a physician. Fixed effects regression results reveal that physicians spend less time with their capitated patients than with their non-capitated patients.

Circumferential resection margin positivity after preoperative chemoradiotherapy based on magnetic resonance imaging for locally advanced rectal cancer: implication of boost radiotherapy to the involved mesorectal fascia.

PubMed

Kim, Kyung Hwan; Park, Min Jung; Lim, Joon Seok; Kim, Nam Kyu; Min, Byung Soh; Ahn, Joong Bae; Kim, Tae Il; Kim, Ho Geun; Koom, Woong Sub

2016-04-01

To identify patients who are at a higher risk of pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement using preoperative magnetic resonance imaging. Between October 2008 and November 2012, 165 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (cT4 or cT3 with <2 mm distance from tumour to mesorectal fascia) who received preoperative chemoradiotherapy were analysed. The morphologic patterns on post-chemoradiotherapy magnetic resonance imaging were categorized into five patterns from Pattern A (most-likely negative pathologic circumferential resection margin) to Pattern E (most-likely positive pathologic circumferential resection margin). In addition, the location of mesorectal fascia involvement was classified as lateral, posterior and anterior. The diagnostic accuracy of the morphologic criteria was calculated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement was identified in 17 patients (10.3%). The diagnostic accuracy of predicting pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement was 0.73 using the five-scale magnetic resonance imaging pattern. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value for predicting pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement were 76.5, 65.5, 20.3 and 96.0%, respectively, when cut-off was set between Patterns C and D. On multivariate logistic regression, the magnetic resonance imaging patterns D and E (P= 0.005) and posterior or lateral mesorectal fascia involvement (P= 0.017) were independently associated with increased probability of pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement. The rate of pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement was 30.0% when the patient had Pattern D or E with posterior or lateral mesorectal fascia involvement. Patients who are at a higher risk of pathologic circumferential resection margin involvement can be identified using preoperative magnetic resonance imaging although the predictability is moderate. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sleep Disturbance from Road Traffic, Railways, Airplanes and from Total Environmental Noise Levels in Montreal.

PubMed

Perron, Stéphane; Plante, Céline; Ragettli, Martina S; Kaiser, David J; Goudreau, Sophie; Smargiassi, Audrey

2016-08-11

The objective of our study was to measure the impact of transportation-related noise and total environmental noise on sleep disturbance for the residents of Montreal, Canada. A telephone-based survey on noise-related sleep disturbance among 4336 persons aged 18 years and over was conducted. LNight for each study participant was estimated using a land use regression (LUR) model. Distance of the respondent's residence to the nearest transportation noise source was also used as an indicator of noise exposure. The proportion of the population whose sleep was disturbed by outdoor environmental noise in the past 4 weeks was 12.4%. The proportion of those affected by road traffic, airplane and railway noise was 4.2%, 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. We observed an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those exposed to both rail and road noise when compared for those exposed to road only. We did not observe an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those that were both exposed to road and planes when compared to those exposed to road or planes only. We developed regression models to assess the marginal proportion of sleep disturbance as a function of estimated LNight and distance to transportation noise sources. In our models, sleep disturbance increased with proximity to transportation noise sources (railway, airplane and road traffic) and with increasing LNight values. Our study provides a quantitative estimate of the association between total environmental noise levels estimated using an LUR model and sleep disturbance from transportation noise.

[Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

PubMed

Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

2014-02-01

Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the formulation of causal hypotheses, which will be a basis for all methodological choices. Beyond this step, statistical analysis tools recently developed offer new possibilities to delineate complex relationships, in particular in life course epidemiology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Utilizing Flight Data to Update Aeroelastic Stability Estimates

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty

1997-01-01

Stability analysis of high performance aircraft must account for errors in the system model. A method for computing flutter margins that incorporates flight data has been developed using robust stability theory. This paper considers applying this method to update flutter margins during a post-flight or on-line analysis. Areas of modeling uncertainty that arise when using flight data with this method are investigated. The amount of conservatism in the resulting flutter margins depends on the flight data sets used to update the model. Post-flight updates of flutter margins for an F/A-18 are presented along with a simulation of on-line updates during a flight test.

Quantitative Analysis of Land Loss in Coastal Louisiana Using Remote Sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wales, P. M.; Kuszmaul, J.; Roberts, C.

2005-12-01

For the past thirty-five years the land loss along the Louisiana Coast has been recognized as a growing problem. One of the clearest indicators of this land loss is that in 2000 smooth cord grass (spartina alterniflora) was turning brown well before its normal hibernation period. Over 100,000 acres of marsh were affected by the 2000 browning. In 2001 data were collected using low altitude helicopter based transects of the coast, with 7,400 data points being collected by researchers at the USGS, National Wetlands Research Center, and Louisiana Department of Natural Resources. The surveys contained data describing the characteristics of the marsh, including latitude, longitude, marsh condition, marsh color, percent vegetated, and marsh die-back. Creating a model that combines remote sensing images, field data, and statistical analysis to develop a methodology for estimating the margin of error in measurements of coastal land loss (erosion) is the ultimate goal of the study. A model was successfully created using a series of band combinations (used as predictive variables). The most successful band combinations or predictive variables were the braud value [(Sum Visible TM Bands - Sum Infrared TM Bands)/(Sum Visible TM Bands + Sum Infrared TM Bands)], TM band 7/ TM band 2, brightness, NDVI, wetness, vegetation index, and a 7x7 autocovariate nearest neighbor floating window. The model values were used to generate the logistic regression model. A new image was created based on the logistic regression probability equation where each pixel represents the probability of finding water or non-water at that location in each image. Pixels within each image that have a high probability of representing water have a value close to 1 and pixels with a low probability of representing water have a value close to 0. A logistic regression model is proposed that uses seven independent variables. This model yields an accurate classification in 86.5% of the locations considered in the 1997 and 2001 survey locations. When the logistic regression was modeled to the satellite imagery of the entire Louisiana Coast study area a statewide loss was estimated to be 358 mi2 to 368 mi2, from 1997 to 2001, using two different methods for estimating land loss.

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield.

PubMed

Gabriel, Mark C; Kolka, Randy; Wickman, Trent; Nater, Ed; Woodruff, Laurel

2009-06-15

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch (Perca flavescens) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO(3)(-)-N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman rho=0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r=0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction (r(2)=0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Emotional balances in experimental consumer choices.

PubMed

Mengov, George; Egbert, Henrik; Pulov, Stefan; Georgiev, Kalin

2008-11-01

This paper presents an experiment, which builds a bridge over the gap between neuroscience and the analysis of economic behaviour. We apply the mathematical theory of Pavlovian conditioning, known as Recurrent Associative Gated Dipole (READ), to analyse consumer choices in a computer-based experiment. Supplier reputations, consumer satisfaction, and customer reactions are operationally defined and, together with prices, related to READ's neural dynamics. We recorded our participants' decisions with their timing, and then mapped those decisions on a sequence of events generated by the READ model. To achieve this, all constants in the differential equations were determined using simulated annealing with data from 129 people. READ predicted correctly 96% of all consumer choices in a calibration sample (n=1290), and 87% in a test sample (n=903), thus outperforming logit models. The rank correlations between self-assessed and dipole-generated consumer satisfactions were 89% in the calibration sample and 78% in the test sample, surpassing by a wide margin the best linear regression model.

Household Food Insecurity May Predict Underweightand Wasting among Children Aged 24-59 Months.

PubMed

Abdurahman, Ahmed A; Mirzaei, Khadijeh; Dorosty, Ahmed Reza; Rahimiforoushani, A; Kedir, Haji

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the association between household food insecurity and nutritional status among children aged 24-59 months in Haromaya District. Children (N = 453) aged 24-59 months were recruited in a community-based cross-sectional survey with a representative sample of households selected by a multistage sampling procedure in Haromaya District. Household Food Insecurity Access Scale and anthropometry were administered. Multinomial logistic regression models were applied to select variables that are candidate for multivariable model. The prevalences of stunting, underweight, and wasting among children aged 24-59 months were 61.1%, 28.1%, and 11.8%, respectively. The mean household food insecurity access scale score was 3.34, and 39.7% of households experienced some degree of food insecurity. By logistic regression analysis and after adjusting for the confounding factors, household food insecurity was significantly predictive of underweight (AOR = 2.48, CI = 1.17-5.24, p = .05) and chronic energy deficiency (AOR = 0.47, CI = 0.23-0.97, p = .04) and marginally significant for wasting (AOR = 0.53, CI = 0.27-1.03, p = .06). It is concluded that household food security improves child growth and nutritional status.

Statistical Use of Argonaute Expression and RISC Assembly in microRNA Target Identification

PubMed Central

Stanhope, Stephen A.; Sengupta, Srikumar; den Boon, Johan; Ahlquist, Paul; Newton, Michael A.

2009-01-01

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) posttranscriptionally regulate targeted messenger RNAs (mRNAs) by inducing cleavage or otherwise repressing their translation. We address the problem of detecting m/miRNA targeting relationships in homo sapiens from microarray data by developing statistical models that are motivated by the biological mechanisms used by miRNAs. The focus of our modeling is the construction, activity, and mediation of RNA-induced silencing complexes (RISCs) competent for targeted mRNA cleavage. We demonstrate that regression models accommodating RISC abundance and controlling for other mediating factors fit the expression profiles of known target pairs substantially better than models based on m/miRNA expressions alone, and lead to verifications of computational target pair predictions that are more sensitive than those based on marginal expression levels. Because our models are fully independent of exogenous results from sequence-based computational methods, they are appropriate for use as either a primary or secondary source of information regarding m/miRNA target pair relationships, especially in conjunction with high-throughput expression studies. PMID:19779550

77 FR 62275 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Notice of Filing and Order Granting...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-12

... to its Rules to implement the enhanced margin segregation model for cleared swaps that the Commodity... on a customer-by-customer basis, and (iii) change the default ``waterfall'' to limit ICC's ability to... margin requirement,'' and ``Participant excess margin'' have been deleted to reflect the LSOC model and...

Marginal Maximum A Posteriori Item Parameter Estimation for the Generalized Graded Unfolding Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, James S.; Thompson, Vanessa M.

2011-01-01

A marginal maximum a posteriori (MMAP) procedure was implemented to estimate item parameters in the generalized graded unfolding model (GGUM). Estimates from the MMAP method were compared with those derived from marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedures in a recovery simulation that varied sample size,…

77 FR 48192 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-13

... Liquidity Factor of Its Credit Default Swap Margin Methodology August 7, 2012. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1... model. The liquidity margin component of the CME CDS margin model is designed to capture the risk... CDS Clearing Member. The current methodology for the liquidity factor is a function of a portfolio's...

Clearing margin system in the futures markets—Applying the value-at-risk model to Taiwanese data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Chien-Liang; Chiang, Shu-Mei; Hung, Jui-Cheng; Chen, Yu-Lung

2006-07-01

This article sets out to investigate if the TAIFEX has adequate clearing margin adjustment system via unconditional coverage, conditional coverage test and mean relative scaled bias to assess the performance of three value-at-risk (VaR) models (i.e., the TAIFEX, RiskMetrics and GARCH-t). For the same model, original and absolute returns are compared to explore which can accurately capture the true risk. For the same return, daily and tiered adjustment methods are examined to evaluate which corresponds to risk best. The results indicate that the clearing margin adjustment of the TAIFEX cannot reflect true risks. The adjustment rules, including the use of absolute return and tiered adjustment of the clearing margin, have distorted VaR-based margin requirements. Besides, the results suggest that the TAIFEX should use original return to compute VaR and daily adjustment system to set clearing margin. This approach would improve the funds operation efficiency and the liquidity of the futures markets.

A large-scale assessment of two-way SNP interactions in breast cancer susceptibility using 46 450 cases and 42 461 controls from the breast cancer association consortium

PubMed Central

Milne, Roger L.; Herranz, Jesús; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Tyrer, Jonathan P.; Zamora, M. Pilar; Arias-Perez, José Ignacio; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Alonso, M. Rosario; Wang, Qin; Bolla, Manjeet K.; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Mikael; Humphreys, Keith; Darabi, Hatef; Li, Jingmei; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Ziogas, Argyrios; Clarke, Christina A.; Hopper, John L.; Dite, Gillian S.; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C.; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nicholas; Schoemaker, Minouk; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Andrulis, Irene L.; Knight, Julia A.; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Bojesen, Stig E.; Nordestgaard, Børge G.; Flyger, Henrik; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A.; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Wang, Xianshu; Olson, Janet E.; Vachon, Celine; Purrington, Kristen; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Dunning, Alison M.; Shah, Mitul; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Sanchez, Marie; Mulot, Claire; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Hooning, Maartje J.; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Collée, J. Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Cox, Angela; Brock, Ian W.; Reed, Malcolm W.R.; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A.E.M.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Simard, Jacques; Dumont, Martine; Soucy, Penny; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V.; Hamann, Ute; Försti, Asta; Rüdiger, Thomas; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Fasching, Peter A.; Häberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B.; Beckmann, Matthias W.; Fletcher, Olivia; Johnson, Nichola; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Peto, Julian; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peissel, Bernard; Mariani, Paolo; Giles, Graham G.; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; Sawyer, Elinor; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael; Miller, Nicola; Marme, Federik; Burwinkel, Barbara; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M.; Lambrechts, Diether; Yesilyurt, Betul T.; Floris, Giuseppe; Leunen, Karin; Alnæs, Grethe Grenaker; Kristensen, Vessela; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; García-Closas, Montserrat; Chanock, Stephen J.; Lissowska, Jolanta; Figueroa, Jonine D.; Schmidt, Marjanka K.; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J.; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Couch, Fergus J.; Toland, Amanda E.; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Pharoah, Paul D.P.; Hall, Per; Benítez, Javier; Malats, Núria; Easton, Douglas F.

2014-01-01

Part of the substantial unexplained familial aggregation of breast cancer may be due to interactions between common variants, but few studies have had adequate statistical power to detect interactions of realistic magnitude. We aimed to assess all two-way interactions in breast cancer susceptibility between 70 917 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected primarily based on prior evidence of a marginal effect. Thirty-eight international studies contributed data for 46 450 breast cancer cases and 42 461 controls of European origin as part of a multi-consortium project (COGS). First, SNPs were preselected based on evidence (P < 0.01) of a per-allele main effect, and all two-way combinations of those were evaluated by a per-allele (1 d.f.) test for interaction using logistic regression. Second, all 2.5 billion possible two-SNP combinations were evaluated using Boolean operation-based screening and testing, and SNP pairs with the strongest evidence of interaction (P < 10−4) were selected for more careful assessment by logistic regression. Under the first approach, 3277 SNPs were preselected, but an evaluation of all possible two-SNP combinations (1 d.f.) identified no interactions at P < 10−8. Results from the second analytic approach were consistent with those from the first (P > 10−10). In summary, we observed little evidence of two-way SNP interactions in breast cancer susceptibility, despite the large number of SNPs with potential marginal effects considered and the very large sample size. This finding may have important implications for risk prediction, simplifying the modelling required. Further comprehensive, large-scale genome-wide interaction studies may identify novel interacting loci if the inherent logistic and computational challenges can be overcome. PMID:24242184

A large-scale assessment of two-way SNP interactions in breast cancer susceptibility using 46,450 cases and 42,461 controls from the breast cancer association consortium.

PubMed

Milne, Roger L; Herranz, Jesús; Michailidou, Kyriaki; Dennis, Joe; Tyrer, Jonathan P; Zamora, M Pilar; Arias-Perez, José Ignacio; González-Neira, Anna; Pita, Guillermo; Alonso, M Rosario; Wang, Qin; Bolla, Manjeet K; Czene, Kamila; Eriksson, Mikael; Humphreys, Keith; Darabi, Hatef; Li, Jingmei; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Neuhausen, Susan L; Ziogas, Argyrios; Clarke, Christina A; Hopper, John L; Dite, Gillian S; Apicella, Carmel; Southey, Melissa C; Chenevix-Trench, Georgia; Swerdlow, Anthony; Ashworth, Alan; Orr, Nicholas; Schoemaker, Minouk; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubinski, Jan; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Durda, Katarzyna; Andrulis, Irene L; Knight, Julia A; Glendon, Gord; Mulligan, Anna Marie; Bojesen, Stig E; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Flyger, Henrik; Nevanlinna, Heli; Muranen, Taru A; Aittomäki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Rudolph, Anja; Seibold, Petra; Flesch-Janys, Dieter; Wang, Xianshu; Olson, Janet E; Vachon, Celine; Purrington, Kristen; Winqvist, Robert; Pylkäs, Katri; Jukkola-Vuorinen, Arja; Grip, Mervi; Dunning, Alison M; Shah, Mitul; Guénel, Pascal; Truong, Thérèse; Sanchez, Marie; Mulot, Claire; Brenner, Hermann; Dieffenbach, Aida Karina; Arndt, Volker; Stegmaier, Christa; Lindblom, Annika; Margolin, Sara; Hooning, Maartje J; Hollestelle, Antoinette; Collée, J Margriet; Jager, Agnes; Cox, Angela; Brock, Ian W; Reed, Malcolm W R; Devilee, Peter; Tollenaar, Robert A E M; Seynaeve, Caroline; Haiman, Christopher A; Henderson, Brian E; Schumacher, Fredrick; Le Marchand, Loic; Simard, Jacques; Dumont, Martine; Soucy, Penny; Dörk, Thilo; Bogdanova, Natalia V; Hamann, Ute; Försti, Asta; Rüdiger, Thomas; Ulmer, Hans-Ulrich; Fasching, Peter A; Häberle, Lothar; Ekici, Arif B; Beckmann, Matthias W; Fletcher, Olivia; Johnson, Nichola; dos Santos Silva, Isabel; Peto, Julian; Radice, Paolo; Peterlongo, Paolo; Peissel, Bernard; Mariani, Paolo; Giles, Graham G; Severi, Gianluca; Baglietto, Laura; Sawyer, Elinor; Tomlinson, Ian; Kerin, Michael; Miller, Nicola; Marme, Federik; Burwinkel, Barbara; Mannermaa, Arto; Kataja, Vesa; Kosma, Veli-Matti; Hartikainen, Jaana M; Lambrechts, Diether; Yesilyurt, Betul T; Floris, Giuseppe; Leunen, Karin; Alnæs, Grethe Grenaker; Kristensen, Vessela; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise; García-Closas, Montserrat; Chanock, Stephen J; Lissowska, Jolanta; Figueroa, Jonine D; Schmidt, Marjanka K; Broeks, Annegien; Verhoef, Senno; Rutgers, Emiel J; Brauch, Hiltrud; Brüning, Thomas; Ko, Yon-Dschun; Couch, Fergus J; Toland, Amanda E; Yannoukakos, Drakoulis; Pharoah, Paul D P; Hall, Per; Benítez, Javier; Malats, Núria; Easton, Douglas F

2014-04-01

Part of the substantial unexplained familial aggregation of breast cancer may be due to interactions between common variants, but few studies have had adequate statistical power to detect interactions of realistic magnitude. We aimed to assess all two-way interactions in breast cancer susceptibility between 70,917 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) selected primarily based on prior evidence of a marginal effect. Thirty-eight international studies contributed data for 46,450 breast cancer cases and 42,461 controls of European origin as part of a multi-consortium project (COGS). First, SNPs were preselected based on evidence (P < 0.01) of a per-allele main effect, and all two-way combinations of those were evaluated by a per-allele (1 d.f.) test for interaction using logistic regression. Second, all 2.5 billion possible two-SNP combinations were evaluated using Boolean operation-based screening and testing, and SNP pairs with the strongest evidence of interaction (P < 10(-4)) were selected for more careful assessment by logistic regression. Under the first approach, 3277 SNPs were preselected, but an evaluation of all possible two-SNP combinations (1 d.f.) identified no interactions at P < 10(-8). Results from the second analytic approach were consistent with those from the first (P > 10(-10)). In summary, we observed little evidence of two-way SNP interactions in breast cancer susceptibility, despite the large number of SNPs with potential marginal effects considered and the very large sample size. This finding may have important implications for risk prediction, simplifying the modelling required. Further comprehensive, large-scale genome-wide interaction studies may identify novel interacting loci if the inherent logistic and computational challenges can be overcome.

Geomorphological and structural characterization of the southern Weihe Graben, central China: Implications for fault segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Yali; He, Chuanqi; Rao, Gang; Yan, Bing; Lin, Aiming; Hu, Jianmin; Yu, Yangli; Yao, Qi

2018-01-01

The Cenozoic graben systems around the tectonically stable Ordos Block, central China, have been considered as ideal places for investigating active deformation within continental rifts, such as the Weihe Graben at the southern margin with high historical seismicity (e.g., 1556 M 8.5 Huaxian great earthquake). However, previous investigations have mostly focused on the active structures in the eastern and northern parts of this graben. By contrast, in the southwest, tectonic activity along the northern margin of the Qinling Mountains has not been systematically investigated yet. In this study, based on digital elevation models (DEMs), we carried out geomorphological analysis to evaluate the relative tectonic activity along the whole South Border Fault (SBF). On the basis of field observations, high resolution DEMs acquired by small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUVA) using structure-for-motion techniques, radiocarbon (14C) age dating, we demonstrate that: 1) Tectonic activity along the SBF changes along strike, being higher in the eastern sector. 2) Seven major segment boundaries have been assigned, where the fault changes its strike and has lower tectonic activity. 3) The fault segment between the cities of Huaxian and Huayin characterized by almost pure normal slip has been active during the Holocene. We suggest that these findings would provide a basis for further investigating on the seismic risk in densely-populated Weihe Graben. Table S2. The values and classification of geomorphic indices obtained in this study. Fig. S1. Morphological features of the stream long profiles (Nos. 1-75) and corresponding SLK values. Fig. S2. Comparison of geomorphological parameters acquired from different DEMs (90-m SRTM and 30-m ASTER GDEM): (a) HI values; (b) HI linear regression; (c) mean slope of drainage basin; (d) mean slope linear regression.

Fatalism, optimism, spirituality, depressive symptoms and stroke outcome: A population-based analysis

PubMed Central

Morgenstern, Lewis B.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Skolarus, Lesli E.; Garcia, Nelda; Risser, Jan M.H.; Wing, Jeffrey J.; Smith, Melinda A.; Zahuranec, Darin B.; Lisabeth, Lynda D.

2011-01-01

Background and Purpose We sought to describe the association of spirituality, optimism, fatalism and depressive symptoms with initial stroke severity, stroke recurrence and post-stroke mortality. Methods Stroke cases June 2004–December 2008 were ascertained in Nueces County, Texas. Patients without aphasia were queried on their recall of depressive symptoms, fatalism, optimism, and non-organizational spirituality before stroke using validated scales. The association between scales and stroke outcomes was studied using multiple linear regression with log-transformed NIHSS and Cox proportional hazards regression for recurrence and mortality. Results 669 patients participated, 48.7% were women. In fully adjusted models, an increase in fatalism from the first to third quartile was associated with all-cause mortality (HR=1.41, 95%CI: 1.06, 1.88), marginally associated with risk of recurrence (HR=1.35, 95%CI: 0.97, 1.88), but not stroke severity. Similarly, an increase in depressive symptoms was associated with increased mortality (HR=1.32, 95%CI: 1.02, 1.72), marginally associated with stroke recurrence (HR=1.22, CI: 0.93, 1.62), and with a 9.0% increase in stroke severity (95%CI: 0.01, 18.0). Depressive symptoms altered the fatalism-mortality association such that the association of fatalism and mortality was more pronounced for patients reporting no depressive symptoms. Neither spirituality nor optimism conferred a significant effect on stroke severity, recurrence or mortality. Conclusions Among patients who have already had a stroke, self-described pre-stroke depressive symptoms and fatalism, but not optimism or spirituality, are associated with increased risk of stroke recurrence and mortality. Unconventional risk factors may explain some of the variability in stroke outcomes observed in populations, and may be novel targets for intervention. PMID:21940963

A Head-to-Head Comparison of the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5) With the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4 (PDQ-4) in Predicting the General Level of Personality Pathology Among Community Dwelling Subjects.

PubMed

Fossati, Andrea; Somma, Antonella; Borroni, Serena; Maffei, Cesare; Markon, Kristian E; Krueger, Robert F

2016-02-01

In order to evaluate if measures of DSM-5 Alternative PD Model domains predicted interview-based scores of general personality pathology when compared to self-report measures of DSM-IV Axis II/DSM-5 Section II PD criteria, 300 Italian community adults were administered the Iowa Personality Disorder Screen (IPDS) interview, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5), and the Personality Diagnostic Questionnaire-4+ (PDQ-4+). Multiple regression analyses showed that the five PID-5 domain scales collectively explained an adequate rate of the variance of the IPDS interview total score. This result was slightly lower than the amount of variance in the IPDS total score explained by the 10 PDQ-4+ scales. The PID-5 traits scales performed better than the PDQ-4+, although the difference was marginal. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that the PID-5 domain and trait scales provided a moderate, but significant increase in the prediction of the general level of personality pathology above and beyond the PDQ-4+ scales.

Improving causal inference with a doubly robust estimator that combines propensity score stratification and weighting.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel

2017-08-01

When a randomized controlled trial is not feasible, health researchers typically use observational data and rely on statistical methods to adjust for confounding when estimating treatment effects. These methods generally fall into 3 categories: (1) estimators based on a model for the outcome using conventional regression adjustment; (2) weighted estimators based on the propensity score (ie, a model for the treatment assignment); and (3) "doubly robust" (DR) estimators that model both the outcome and propensity score within the same framework. In this paper, we introduce a new DR estimator that utilizes marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMWS) as the basis for weighted adjustment. This estimator may prove more accurate than treatment effect estimators because MMWS has been shown to be more accurate than other models when the propensity score is misspecified. We therefore compare the performance of this new estimator to other commonly used treatment effects estimators. Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare the DR-MMWS estimator to regression adjustment, 2 weighted estimators based on the propensity score and 2 other DR methods. To assess performance under varied conditions, we vary the level of misspecification of the propensity score model as well as misspecify the outcome model. Overall, DR estimators generally outperform methods that model one or the other components (eg, propensity score or outcome). The DR-MMWS estimator outperforms all other estimators when both the propensity score and outcome models are misspecified and performs equally as well as other DR estimators when only the propensity score is misspecified. Health researchers should consider using DR-MMWS as the principal evaluation strategy in observational studies, as this estimator appears to outperform other estimators in its class. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Flight assessment of the onboard propulsion system model for the Performance Seeking Control algorithm on an F-15 aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Schkolnik, Gerard S.

1995-01-01

Performance Seeking Control (PSC), an onboard, adaptive, real-time optimization algorithm, relies upon an onboard propulsion system model. Flight results illustrated propulsion system performance improvements as calculated by the model. These improvements were subject to uncertainty arising from modeling error. Thus to quantify uncertainty in the PSC performance improvements, modeling accuracy must be assessed. A flight test approach to verify PSC-predicted increases in thrust (FNP) and absolute levels of fan stall margin is developed and applied to flight test data. Application of the excess thrust technique shows that increases of FNP agree to within 3 percent of full-scale measurements for most conditions. Accuracy to these levels is significant because uncertainty bands may now be applied to the performance improvements provided by PSC. Assessment of PSC fan stall margin modeling accuracy was completed with analysis of in-flight stall tests. Results indicate that the model overestimates the stall margin by between 5 to 10 percent. Because PSC achieves performance gains by using available stall margin, this overestimation may represent performance improvements to be recovered with increased modeling accuracy. Assessment of thrust and stall margin modeling accuracy provides a critical piece for a comprehensive understanding of PSC's capabilities and limitations.

Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Dynamic and Static Longitudinal Marginal Structural Working Models

PubMed Central

Schwab, Joshua; Gruber, Susan; Blaser, Nello; Schomaker, Michael; van der Laan, Mark

2015-01-01

This paper describes a targeted maximum likelihood estimator (TMLE) for the parameters of longitudinal static and dynamic marginal structural models. We consider a longitudinal data structure consisting of baseline covariates, time-dependent intervention nodes, intermediate time-dependent covariates, and a possibly time-dependent outcome. The intervention nodes at each time point can include a binary treatment as well as a right-censoring indicator. Given a class of dynamic or static interventions, a marginal structural model is used to model the mean of the intervention-specific counterfactual outcome as a function of the intervention, time point, and possibly a subset of baseline covariates. Because the true shape of this function is rarely known, the marginal structural model is used as a working model. The causal quantity of interest is defined as the projection of the true function onto this working model. Iterated conditional expectation double robust estimators for marginal structural model parameters were previously proposed by Robins (2000, 2002) and Bang and Robins (2005). Here we build on this work and present a pooled TMLE for the parameters of marginal structural working models. We compare this pooled estimator to a stratified TMLE (Schnitzer et al. 2014) that is based on estimating the intervention-specific mean separately for each intervention of interest. The performance of the pooled TMLE is compared to the performance of the stratified TMLE and the performance of inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators using simulations. Concepts are illustrated using an example in which the aim is to estimate the causal effect of delayed switch following immunological failure of first line antiretroviral therapy among HIV-infected patients. Data from the International Epidemiological Databases to Evaluate AIDS, Southern Africa are analyzed to investigate this question using both TML and IPW estimators. Our results demonstrate practical advantages of the pooled TMLE over an IPW estimator for working marginal structural models for survival, as well as cases in which the pooled TMLE is superior to its stratified counterpart. PMID:25909047

Wave attenuation in the marginal ice zone during LIMEX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Peng, Chih Y.; Vachon, Paris W.

1991-01-01

During LIMEX'87 and '89, the CCRS CV-580 aircraft collected SAR (synthetic aperture radar) data over the marginal ice zone off the coast of Newfoundland. Based upon the wavenumber spectra from SAR data, the wave attenuation rate is estimated and compared with a model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions during LIMEX (Labrador Ice Margin Experiment). Both model and SAR-derived wave attenuation rates show a roll-over at high wavenumbers.

Towards Biogeochemical Modeling of Anaerobic Oxidation of Methane: Characterization of Microbial Communities in Methane-bearing North American Continental Margin Sediments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graw, M. F.; Solomon, E. A.; Chrisler, W.; Krause, S.; Treude, T.; Ruppel, C. D.; Pohlman, J.; Colwell, F. S.

2015-12-01

Methane advecting through continental margin sediments may enter the water column and potentially contribute to ocean acidification and increase atmospheric methane concentrations. Anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), mediated by syntrophic consortia of anaerobic methanotrophic archaea and sulfate-reducing bacteria (ANME-SRB), consumes nearly all dissolved methane in methane-bearing sediments before it reaches the sediment-water interface. Despite the significant role ANME-SRB play in carbon cycling, our knowledge of these organisms and their surrounding microbial communities is limited. Our objective is to develop a metabolic model of ANME-SRB within methane-bearing sediments and to couple this to a geochemical reaction-transport model for these margins. As a first step towards this goal, we undertook fluorescent microscopic imaging, 16S rRNA gene deep-sequencing, and shotgun metagenomic sequencing of sediments from the US Pacific (Washington) and northern Atlantic margins where ANME-SRB are present. A successful Illumina MiSeq sequencing run yielded 106,257 bacterial and 857,834 archaeal 16S rRNA gene sequences from 12 communities from the Washington Margin using both universal prokaryotic and archaeal-specific primer sets. Fluorescent microscopy confirmed the presence of cells of the ANME-2c lineage in the sequenced communities. Microbial community characterization was coupled with measurements of sediment physical and geochemical properties and, for samples from the US Atlantic margin, 14C-based measurements of AOM rates and 35S-based measurements of sulfate reduction rates. These findings have the potential to increase understanding of ANME-SRB, their surrounding microbial communities, and their role in carbon cycling within continental margins. In addition, they pave the way for future efforts at developing a metabolic model of ANME-SRB and coupling it to geochemical models of the US Washington and Atlantic margins.

Exploring the use of random regression models with legendre polynomials to analyze measures of volume of ejaculate in Holstein bulls.

PubMed

Carabaño, M J; Díaz, C; Ugarte, C; Serrano, M

2007-02-01

Artificial insemination centers routinely collect records of quantity and quality of semen of bulls throughout the animals' productive period. The goal of this paper was to explore the use of random regression models with orthogonal polynomials to analyze repeated measures of semen production of Spanish Holstein bulls. A total of 8,773 records of volume of first ejaculate (VFE) collected between 12 and 30 mo of age from 213 Spanish Holstein bulls was analyzed under alternative random regression models. Legendre polynomial functions of increasing order (0 to 6) were fitted to the average trajectory, additive genetic and permanent environmental effects. Age at collection and days in production were used as time variables. Heterogeneous and homogeneous residual variances were alternatively assumed. Analyses were carried out within a Bayesian framework. The logarithm of the marginal density and the cross-validation predictive ability of the data were used as model comparison criteria. Based on both criteria, age at collection as a time variable and heterogeneous residuals models are recommended to analyze changes of VFE over time. Both criteria indicated that fitting random curves for genetic and permanent environmental components as well as for the average trajector improved the quality of models. Furthermore, models with a higher order polynomial for the permanent environmental (5 to 6) than for the genetic components (4 to 5) and the average trajectory (2 to 3) tended to perform best. High-order polynomials were needed to accommodate the highly oscillating nature of the phenotypic values. Heritability and repeatability estimates, disregarding the extremes of the studied period, ranged from 0.15 to 0.35 and from 0.20 to 0.50, respectively, indicating that selection for VFE may be effective at any stage. Small differences among models were observed. Apart from the extremes, estimated correlations between ages decreased steadily from 0.9 and 0.4 for measures 1 mo apart to 0.4 and 0.2 for most distant measures for additive genetic and phenotypic components, respectively. Further investigation to account for environmental factors that may be responsible for the oscillating observations of VFE is needed.

Copula based prediction models: an application to an aortic regurgitation study

PubMed Central

Kumar, Pranesh; Shoukri, Mohamed M

2007-01-01

Background: An important issue in prediction modeling of multivariate data is the measure of dependence structure. The use of Pearson's correlation as a dependence measure has several pitfalls and hence application of regression prediction models based on this correlation may not be an appropriate methodology. As an alternative, a copula based methodology for prediction modeling and an algorithm to simulate data are proposed. Methods: The method consists of introducing copulas as an alternative to the correlation coefficient commonly used as a measure of dependence. An algorithm based on the marginal distributions of random variables is applied to construct the Archimedean copulas. Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to replicate datasets, estimate prediction model parameters and validate them using Lin's concordance measure. Results: We have carried out a correlation-based regression analysis on data from 20 patients aged 17–82 years on pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions after surgery and estimated the prediction model: Post-operative ejection fraction = - 0.0658 + 0.8403 (Pre-operative ejection fraction); p = 0.0008; 95% confidence interval of the slope coefficient (0.3998, 1.2808). From the exploratory data analysis, it is noted that both the pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions measurements have slight departures from symmetry and are skewed to the left. It is also noted that the measurements tend to be widely spread and have shorter tails compared to normal distribution. Therefore predictions made from the correlation-based model corresponding to the pre-operative ejection fraction measurements in the lower range may not be accurate. Further it is found that the best approximated marginal distributions of pre-operative and post-operative ejection fractions (using q-q plots) are gamma distributions. The copula based prediction model is estimated as: Post -operative ejection fraction = - 0.0933 + 0.8907 × (Pre-operative ejection fraction); p = 0.00008 ; 95% confidence interval for slope coefficient (0.4810, 1.3003). For both models differences in the predicted post-operative ejection fractions in the lower range of pre-operative ejection measurements are considerably different and prediction errors due to copula model are smaller. To validate the copula methodology we have re-sampled with replacement fifty independent bootstrap samples and have estimated concordance statistics 0.7722 (p = 0.0224) for the copula model and 0.7237 (p = 0.0604) for the correlation model. The predicted and observed measurements are concordant for both models. The estimates of accuracy components are 0.9233 and 0.8654 for copula and correlation models respectively. Conclusion: Copula-based prediction modeling is demonstrated to be an appropriate alternative to the conventional correlation-based prediction modeling since the correlation-based prediction models are not appropriate to model the dependence in populations with asymmetrical tails. Proposed copula-based prediction model has been validated using the independent bootstrap samples. PMID:17573974

Coral reef complexes at an atypical windward platform margin: Late Quaternary, southeast Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lidz, B.H.

2004-01-01

Major coral reef complexes rim many modern and ancient carbonate platforms. Their role in margin evolution is not fully understood, particularly when they border a margin atypical of the classic model. Classic windward margins are steeply inclined. The windward margin of southeast Florida is distinct with a very low-gradient slope and a shelf edge ringed with 30-m-high Quaternary outlier reefs on a shallow upper-slope terrace. A newly developed synthesis of temporally well-constrained geologic events is used with surface and subsurface seismic-reflection contours to construct morphogenetic models of four discontinuous reef-complex sequences. The models show uneven subsurface topography, upward and landward buildups, and a previously unreported, rapid, Holocene progradation. The terms backstepped reef-complex margin, backfilled prograded margin, and coalesced reef-complex margin are proposed for sections exhibiting suitable signatures in the stratigraphic record. The models have significant implications for interpretation of ancient analogues. The Florida record chronicles four kinds of geologic events. (1) Thirteen transgressions high enough for marine deposition occurred between ca. 325 ka and the present. Six gave rise to stratigraphically successive coral reef complexes between ca. 185 and ca. 77.8 ka. The seventh reef ecosystem is Holocene. (2) Two primary coral reef architectures built the outer shelf and margin, producing respective ridge-and-swale and reef-and-trough geometries of very different scales. (3) Massive outlier reefs developed on an upper-slope terrace between ca. 106.5 and ca. 80 ka and are inferred to contain corals that would date to highstands at ca. 140 and 125 ka. (4) Sea level remained below elevation of the shelf between ca. 77.8 and ca. 9.6 ka. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

Marginal structural modeling of associations of occupational injuries with voluntary and involuntary job loss among nursing home workers

PubMed Central

Bacic, Janine; Velasquez, Esther; Hammer, Leslie B

2016-01-01

Objectives Qualitative studies have highlighted the possibility of job loss following occupational injuries for some workers, but prospective investigations are scant. We used a sample of nursing home workers from the Work, Family, and Health Network to prospectively investigate association between occupational injuries and job loss. Methods We merged data on 1331 workers assessed four times over an 18-month period with administrative data that include job loss from employers and publicly-available data on their workplaces. Workers self-reported occupational injuries in surveys. Multivariable logistic regression models estimated risk ratios for the impact of occupational injuries on overall job loss, whereas multinomial models were used to estimate odds ratio of voluntary and involuntary job loss. Use of marginal structural models allowed for adjustments of multilevel list of confounders that may be time-varying and/or on the causal pathway. Results By 12 months, 30.3% of workers experienced occupational injury, whereas 24.2% experienced job loss by 18 months. Comparing workers who reported occupational injuries to those reporting no injuries, risk ratio of overall job loss within subsequent 6 months was 1.31 (95% CI=0.93–1.86). Comparing the same groups, injured workers had higher odds of experiencing involuntary job loss (OR:2.19; 95% CI:1.27–3.77). Also, compared to uninjured workers, those injured more than once had higher odds of voluntary job loss (OR:1.95; 95% CI:1.03–3.67), while those injured once had higher odds of involuntary job loss (OR:2.19; 95% CI:1.18–4.05). Conclusions Despite regulatory protections, occupational injuries were associated with increased risk of voluntary and involuntary job loss for nursing home workers. PMID:26786757

Opened Proton Pump Inhibitor Capsules Reduce Time to Healing Compared With Intact Capsules for Marginal Ulceration Following Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass.

PubMed

Schulman, Allison R; Chan, Walter W; Devery, Aiofe; Ryan, Michele B; Thompson, Christopher C

2017-04-01

Marginal ulceration, or ulceration at the gastrojejunal anastomosis, is a common complication of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). Acidity likely contributes to the pathophysiology, and proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) frequently are prescribed for treatment. However, patients with gastric bypass only have a small gastric pouch and rapid small-bowel transit, which limits the opportunity for capsule breakdown and PPI absorption. Soluble PPIs (open capsules [OCs]) might be absorbed more easily than intact capsules (ICs). We compared time to ulcer healing, number of endoscopic procedures, and use of health care for patients with marginal ulceration who received PPIs in OC vs IC form. We performed a retrospective study of 164 patients diagnosed with marginal ulceration who underwent RYGB at the Brigham and Women's Hospital from 2000 through 2015. Patients received high-dose PPIs and underwent repeat endoscopy every 3 months until ulcer healing was confirmed. We used time-to-event analysis with a Cox proportional hazards model to evaluate the association between mode of PPI administration and time to ulcer healing, in addition to Cox multivariate regression analysis. Total charge (procedural and maintenance) was determined by comparison of categorized charges incurred from time of ulcer diagnosis to resolution. The primary outcome was time to healing of marginal ulceration in RYGB patients receiving high-dose PPIs in OC vs IC form. A total of 162 patients were included (115 received OC and 49 received IC). All patients were followed up until ulcer healing was confirmed. The median time to ulcer healing was 91.0 days for the OC group vs 342.0 days for the IC group (P < .001). OC was the only independent predictor of time to ulcer healing (P < .001) when we controlled for known risk factors. The number of endoscopic procedures (P = .02) and overall health care utilization (P = .05) were lower in the OC than the IC group. Patients with marginal ulceration after RYGB who receive OC PPIs have shorter ulcer healing times, fewer endoscopic procedures, and use less health care resources compared with patients who receive IC PPIs. Given these results and the high prevalence of marginal ulceration in this patient population, the use of OC PPIs is a low-risk, low-cost alternative that should be considered. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Education and inequalities in risk scores for coronary heart disease and body mass index: evidence for a population strategy.

PubMed

Liu, Sze Yan; Kawachi, Ichiro; Glymour, M Maria

2012-09-01

Concerns have been raised that education may have greater benefits for persons at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) than for those at low risk. We estimated the association of education (less than high school, high school, or college graduates) with 10-year CHD risk and body mass index (BMI), using linear and quantile regression models, in the following two nationally representative datasets: the 2006 wave of the Health and Retirement Survey and the 2003-2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Higher educational attainment was associated with lower 10-year CHD risk for all groups. However, the magnitude of this association varied considerably across quantiles for some subgroups. For example, among women in NHANES, a high school degree was associated with 4% (95% confidence interval = -9% to 1%) and 17% (-24% to -8%) lower CHD risk in the 10th and 90th percentiles, respectively. For BMI, a college degree was associated with uniform decreases across the distribution for women, but with varying increases for men. Compared with those who had not completed high school, male college graduates in the NHANES sample had a BMI that was 6% greater (2% to 11%) at the 10th percentile of the BMI distribution and 7% lower (-10% to -3%) at the 90th percentile (ie, overweight/obese). Estimates from the Health and Retirement Survey sample and the marginal quantile regression models showed similar patterns. Conventional regression methods may mask important variations in the associations between education and CHD risk.

Cone-Beam Computed Tomography as a Diagnostic Method for Determination of Gingival Thickness and Distance between Gingival Margin and Bone Crest

PubMed Central

Borges, Germana Jayme; Ruiz, Luis Fernando Naldi; de Alencar, Ana Helena Gonçalves; Porto, Olavo César Lyra; Estrela, Carlos

2015-01-01

The objective of the present study was to assess cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) as a diagnostic method for determination of gingival thickness (GT) and distance between gingival margin and vestibular (GMBC-V) and interproximal bone crests (GMBC-I). GT and GMBC-V were measured in 348 teeth and GMBC-I was measured in 377 tooth regions of 29 patients with gummy smile. GT was assessed using transgingival probing (TP), ultrasound (US), and CBCT, whereas GMBC-V and GMBC-I were assessed by transsurgical clinical evaluation (TCE) and CBCT. Statistical analyses used independent t-test, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and simple linear regression. Difference was observed for GT: between TP, CBCT, and US considering all teeth; between TP and CBCT and between TP and US in incisors and canines; between TP and US in premolars and first molars. TP presented the highest means for GT. Positive correlation and linear regression were observed between TP and CBCT, TP and US, and CBCT and US. Difference was observed for GMBC-V and GMBC-I using TCE and CBCT, considering all teeth. Correlation and linear regression results were significant for GMBC-V and GMBC-I in incisors, canines, and premolars. CBCT is an effective diagnostic method to visualize and measure GT, GMBC-V, and GMBC-I. PMID:25918737

Interaction of tectonic and depositional processes that control the evolution of the Iberian Gulf of Cadiz margin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maldonado, A.; Nelson, C.H.

1999-01-01

This study provides an integrated view of the growth patterns and factors that controlled the evolution of the Gulf of Cadiz continental margin based on studies of the tectonic, sedimentologic and oceanographic history of the area. Seven sedimentary regimes are identified, but there are more extensive descriptions of the late Cenozoic regimes because of the larger data base. The regimes of the Mesozoic passive margin include carbonate platforms, which become mixed calcareous-terrigenous deposits during the Late Cretaceous-early Tertiary. The Oligocene and Early Miocene terrigenous regimes developed, in contrast, over the active and transcurrent margins near the African-Iberian plate boundary. The top of the Gulf of Cadiz olistostrome, emplaced in the Late Miocene, is used as a key horizon to define the 'post-orogenic' depositional regimes. The Late Miocene progradational margin regime is characterized by a large terrigenous sediment supply to the margin and coincides with the closing of the Miocene Atlantic-Mediterranean gateways. The terrigenous drift depositional regime of the Early Pliocene resulted from the occurrence of high eustatic sea level and the characteristics of the Mediterranean outflow currents that developed after the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar. The Late Pliocene and Quaternary regimes are dominated by sequences of deposits related to cycles of high and low sea levels. Deposition of shelf-margin deltas and slope wedges correlate with regressive and low sea level regimes caused by eustasy and subsidence. During the highstand regimes of the Holocene, inner shelf prograding deltas and deep-water sediment drifts were developed under the influence of the Atlantic inflow and Mediterranean outflow currents, respectively. A modern human cultural regime began 2000 years ago with the Roman occupation of Iberia; human cultural effects on sedimentary regimes may have equalled natural factors such as climate change. Interplay of tectonic and oceanographic controls dominated the evolution of the Cadiz margin during the Cenozoic. Depositional sequences formed where the tectonic setting provided the accommodation space and the shape of the deposits has been greatly influenced by the strong unidirectional Atlantic inflow currents on the shelf and Mediterranean outflow currents on the slope. The entire cycle of the inflow and outflow deposition along the margin has been controlled first by the tectonic evolution of the Betic and Rif gateways, which become closed during the Late Miocene, and after the Messinian by the opening of the Strait of Gibraltar. Strong current development during eustatic sea level highstands of the Pliocene and Quaternary has controlled deposition because of maximum sill depths at Gibraltar for water circulation. Lowstand sea levels slowed circulation and resulted in mud drapes over the slope and regressive stratigraphic sequences over the shelf. More recently, the human industrial revolution has caused heavy metal contamination of sediment and water over the Cadiz margin. Human activity also has affected sedimentation rates because of deforestation that caused increased depositional rates near undammed rivers and decreased rates where rivers have been dammed. Future research efforts will need to focus on: (1) the effect of increased Mediterranean outflow caused by river damming plus global warming and the increased outflow as a potential trigger for new ice ages; (2) assessments of geologic hazards for planning man-made shoreline structures, developing offshore petroleum resources and maintaining undersea communications cables; and (3) confirmation of the general geologic history of the Cadiz margin.

A Decomposition of Hospital Profitability: An Application of DuPont Analysis to the US Market.

PubMed

Turner, Jason; Broom, Kevin; Elliott, Michael; Lee, Jen-Fu

2015-01-01

This paper evaluates the drivers of profitability for a large sample of U.S. hospitals. Following a methodology frequently used by financial analysts, we use a DuPont analysis as a framework to evaluate the quality of earnings. By decomposing returns on equity (ROE) into profit margin, total asset turnover, and capital structure, the DuPont analysis reveals what drives overall profitability. Profit margin, the efficiency with which services are rendered (total asset turnover), and capital structure is calculated for 3,255 U.S. hospitals between 2007 and 2012 using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' Healthcare Cost Report Information System (CMS Form 2552). The sample is then stratified by ownership, size, system affiliation, teaching status, critical access designation, and urban or non-urban location. Those hospital characteristics and interaction terms are then regressed (OLS) against the ROE and the respective DuPont components. Sensitivity to regression methodology is also investigated using a seemingly unrelated regression. When the sample is stratified by hospital characteristics, the results indicate investor-owned hospitals have higher profit margins, higher efficiency, and are substantially more leveraged. Hospitals in systems are found to have higher ROE, margins, and efficiency but are associated with less leverage. In addition, a number of important and significant interactions between teaching status, ownership, location, critical access designation, and inclusion in a system are documented. Many of the significant relationships, most notably not-for-profit ownership, lose significance or are predominately associated with one interaction effect when interaction terms are introduced as explanatory variables. Results are not sensitive to the alternative methodology. The results of the DuPont analysis suggest that although there appears to be convergence in the behavior of NFP and IO hospitals, significant financial differences remain depending on their respective hospital characteristics. Those differences are tempered or exacerbated by location, size, teaching status, system affiliation, and critical access designation. With the exception of cost-based reimbursement for critical access hospitals, emerging payment systems are placing additional financial pressures on hospitals. The financial pressures being applied treat hospitals as a monolithic category and, given the delicate and often negative ROE for many hospitals, the long-term stability of the healthcare facility infrastructure may be negatively impacted.

A Decomposition of Hospital Profitability

PubMed Central

Broom, Kevin; Elliott, Michael; Lee, Jen-Fu

2015-01-01

Objectives: This paper evaluates the drivers of profitability for a large sample of U.S. hospitals. Following a methodology frequently used by financial analysts, we use a DuPont analysis as a framework to evaluate the quality of earnings. By decomposing returns on equity (ROE) into profit margin, total asset turnover, and capital structure, the DuPont analysis reveals what drives overall profitability. Methods: Profit margin, the efficiency with which services are rendered (total asset turnover), and capital structure is calculated for 3,255 U.S. hospitals between 2007 and 2012 using data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ Healthcare Cost Report Information System (CMS Form 2552). The sample is then stratified by ownership, size, system affiliation, teaching status, critical access designation, and urban or non-urban location. Those hospital characteristics and interaction terms are then regressed (OLS) against the ROE and the respective DuPont components. Sensitivity to regression methodology is also investigated using a seemingly unrelated regression. Results: When the sample is stratified by hospital characteristics, the results indicate investor-owned hospitals have higher profit margins, higher efficiency, and are substantially more leveraged. Hospitals in systems are found to have higher ROE, margins, and efficiency but are associated with less leverage. In addition, a number of important and significant interactions between teaching status, ownership, location, critical access designation, and inclusion in a system are documented. Many of the significant relationships, most notably not-for-profit ownership, lose significance or are predominately associated with one interaction effect when interaction terms are introduced as explanatory variables. Results are not sensitive to the alternative methodology. Conclusion: The results of the DuPont analysis suggest that although there appears to be convergence in the behavior of NFP and IO hospitals, significant financial differences remain depending on their respective hospital characteristics. Those differences are tempered or exacerbated by location, size, teaching status, system affiliation, and critical access designation. With the exception of cost-based reimbursement for critical access hospitals, emerging payment systems are placing additional financial pressures on hospitals. The financial pressures being applied treat hospitals as a monolithic category and, given the delicate and often negative ROE for many hospitals, the long-term stability of the healthcare facility infrastructure may be negatively impacted. PMID:28462258

Bounded Linear Stability Analysis - A Time Delay Margin Estimation Approach for Adaptive Control

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.; Ishihara, Abraham K.; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje Srinlvas; Bakhtiari-Nejad, Maryam

2009-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating time delay margin for model-reference adaptive control of systems with almost linear structured uncertainty. The bounded linear stability analysis method seeks to represent the conventional model-reference adaptive law by a locally bounded linear approximation within a small time window using the comparison lemma. The locally bounded linear approximation of the combined adaptive system is cast in a form of an input-time-delay differential equation over a small time window. The time delay margin of this system represents a local stability measure and is computed analytically by a matrix measure method, which provides a simple analytical technique for estimating an upper bound of time delay margin. Based on simulation results for a scalar model-reference adaptive control system, both the bounded linear stability method and the matrix measure method are seen to provide a reasonably accurate and yet not too conservative time delay margin estimation.

Factors controlling late Cenozoic continental margin growth from the Ebro Delta to the western Mediterranean deep sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, C.H.; Maldonado, A.

1990-01-01

The Ebro continental margin sedimentation system originated with a Messinian fluvial system. This system eroded both a major subaerial canyon cutting the margin southeastward from the present Ebro Delta and an axial valley that drained northeastward down Valencia Trough. Post-Messinian submergence of this topography and the Pliocene regime of high sea levels resulted in a marine hemipelagic drape over the margin. Late Pliocene to Pleistocene glacial climatic cycles, drainagebasin deforestation, and sea-level lowstands combined to increase sediment supply, cause the margin to prograde, and create a regime of lowstand sediment-gravity flows in the deeper margin. The depositional patterns of regressive, transgressive and highstand sea-level regimes suggest that location of the sediment source near the present Ebro Delta throughout the late Cenozoic, southward current advection of sediment, and greater subsidence in the southern margin combined to cause generally asymmetric progradation of the margin to the southeast. Thicker, less stable deposits filling the Messinian subaerial canyon underwent multiple retrograde failures, eroded wide gullied canyons and formed unchanneled base-of-slope sediment aprons in the central margin area; other margin areas to the north and south developed a series of channel-levee complexes. On the basin floor, the formation of Valencia Valley over the Messinian subaerial valley and earlier faults led to draining of about 20% of the Ebro Pleistocene sediment from channel-levee complexes through the valley to prograde Valencia Fan as much as 500 km northeast of the margin. Thus, the Ebro margin has two growth directions, mainly southeastward during higher sea levels, and eastward to northeastward during lower sea levels. The northeastward draining of turbidity currents has produced unusually thin and widely dispersed turbidite systems compared to those on ponded basin floors. During the past few centuries, man's impact has exceeded natural controls on Ebro margin growth. Deforestation of the drainage basin more than doubled the normal Holocene sediment supply, and construction of dams then reduced the supply by 95%. This reduction of the past 50 years has caused erosion of the delta and contamination of bottom sediment because normal Holocene sediment discharge is not available to prograde the delta or help dilute pollutants. ?? 1990.

Is the apical soft tissue margin a better predictor of biochemical recurrence than the surgical specimen?

PubMed

Godoy, Guilherme; Tareen, Basir U; Lepor, Herbert

2011-01-01

To identify predictors of apical surgical margin (ASM) and apical soft tissue margin (ASTM), determine if the ASTM is a better predictor of biochemical recurrence (BR) than the ASM, and ascertain the impact of apical biopsies on BR rates. One thousand three hundred eight consecutive men underwent open radical retropubic prostatectomy (RP) between October 2000 and December 2006. Circumferential biopsies of the ASTM were obtained intraoperatively and submitted for frozen section analysis. Logistic regression models were utilized to identify the factors associated with the presence of positive ASMs and ASTMs. The estimated 5-year risk of BR was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Overall, 43 (3.3%) and 86 (6.6%) of cases exhibited positive ASM and ASTM, respectively. ASM was significantly associated with higher mean serum prostate-specific antigen levels, presence of perineural invasion, and greater volume of tumor in the biopsy specimen. None of these factors were observed to be associated with the presence of cancer in the ASTMs. In the multivariate analysis, only the presence of perineural invasion was a significant independent predictor of ASMs. The estimated 5-year BR rates in the positive ASMs only, ASTMs only, and both positive ASMs and ASTMs groups were 48.6%, 4.7%, and 38.8%, respectively. A positive ASM was associated with a significantly greater risk of BR compared with a positive ASTM. The very low estimated risk of BR at 5 years in cases with ASTM suggests that performing the ASTM biopsies may increase the cure rates achieved with RP. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A 10-year randomized clinical trial on the influence of splinted and unsplinted oral implants retaining mandibular overdentures: peri-implant outcome.

PubMed

Naert, Ignace; Alsaadi, Ghada; van Steenberghe, Daniel; Quirynen, Marc

2004-01-01

This randomized controlled clinical trial aimed to evaluate the efficacy of splinted implants versus unsplinted implants in overdenture therapy over a 10-year period. The study sample comprised 36 completely edentulous patients, 17 men and 19 women (mean age 63.7 years). In each patient, 2 implants (Brånemark System, Nobel Biocare, Göteborg, Sweden) were placed in the interforaminal area. Three to 5 months after placement, they were connected to standard abutments. The patients were then rehabilitated with ball-retained overdentures, magnet-retained overdentures, or bar-retained overdentures (the control group). Patients were followed for 4, 12, 60, and 120 months post-abutment connection. Group means as well as linear regression models were fitted with attachment type and time as classification variables and corrected for simultaneous testing (Tukey). After 10 years, 9 patients had died and 1 was severely ill. Over 10 years, no implants failed. Mean Plaque Index, Bleeding Index, change in attachment level, Periotest values, and marginal bone level at the end of the follow-up period were not significantly different among the groups. The annual marginal bone loss, excluding the first months of remodeling, was comparable with that found around healthy natural teeth. The fact that no implants failed and that overall marginal bone loss after the first year of bone remodeling was limited suggested that implants in a 2-implant mandibular overdenture concept have an excellent prognosis in this patient population, irrespective of the attachment system used.

Neogene evolution of northern Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Armin, R.A.; Abdoerrias, R.; Boer, W.D. de

1996-01-01

A regional sequence-stratigraphic study of the lower Kutei basin, embracing present coastal and offshore East Kalimantan, was undertaken to decipher the Neogene history of an important oil-producing province. The chronostratigraphic framework developed during this study was applied to facies analyses, organic geochemistry, and 2-D basin modeling. Integration of these disciplines powerfully illuminated the relationships between structuring, sedimentation, and hydrocarbon migration, Sedimentation in the lower Kutei basin since the late Middle Miocene has been dominated by the tidal-fluvial Mahakam delta system. During this time the principal river transport system has remained in about the same location as the present-day Mahakam River.more » Thick successions of monotonously similar deltaic facies were stacked vertically, punctuated by progradational or backstepping (flooding) units. Middle to Upper Miocene shelf edges of the delta platform, which are commonly sites of carbonate buildups, offlap from west to east towards the present-day shelf edge. Growth faults active during ca. 12-9 Ma are clustered just basinward of a prominent aggradational Middle Miocene shelf margin, and they exerted profound control on facies distribution. Tectonic quiescence prevailed during ca. 9-4 Ma, and in this period widespread regressive deltaic deposition over a broad, stable delta platform created the most important reservoirs. Subsequently, during Late Pliocene and younger time, many early growth faults were reactivated, and new faults also formed eastward toward the present shelf margin. Here, economically significant intervals consist mainly of lowstand deposits that accumulated in shelf-margin half-grabens created by these Plio-Pleistocene faults.« less

Neogene evolution of northern Mahakam Delta, East Kalimantan, Indonesia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Armin, R.A.; Abdoerrias, R.; Boer, W.D. de

1996-12-31

A regional sequence-stratigraphic study of the lower Kutei basin, embracing present coastal and offshore East Kalimantan, was undertaken to decipher the Neogene history of an important oil-producing province. The chronostratigraphic framework developed during this study was applied to facies analyses, organic geochemistry, and 2-D basin modeling. Integration of these disciplines powerfully illuminated the relationships between structuring, sedimentation, and hydrocarbon migration, Sedimentation in the lower Kutei basin since the late Middle Miocene has been dominated by the tidal-fluvial Mahakam delta system. During this time the principal river transport system has remained in about the same location as the present-day Mahakam River.more » Thick successions of monotonously similar deltaic facies were stacked vertically, punctuated by progradational or backstepping (flooding) units. Middle to Upper Miocene shelf edges of the delta platform, which are commonly sites of carbonate buildups, offlap from west to east towards the present-day shelf edge. Growth faults active during ca. 12-9 Ma are clustered just basinward of a prominent aggradational Middle Miocene shelf margin, and they exerted profound control on facies distribution. Tectonic quiescence prevailed during ca. 9-4 Ma, and in this period widespread regressive deltaic deposition over a broad, stable delta platform created the most important reservoirs. Subsequently, during Late Pliocene and younger time, many early growth faults were reactivated, and new faults also formed eastward toward the present shelf margin. Here, economically significant intervals consist mainly of lowstand deposits that accumulated in shelf-margin half-grabens created by these Plio-Pleistocene faults.« less

Reconstructing marginality: a new model of cultural diversity in nursing.

PubMed

Southwick, Margaret; Polaschek, Nick

2014-05-01

This article presents a new model of cultural diversity in nursing that critically reconstructs the concept of marginality that underpins other models. Rather than viewing the marginal as "other," marginality is redefined as the space in between the dominant cultural reality and the cultural realities of minority groups located within a society. Members of a minority cultural group who become skilled in the difficult process of negotiating this in-between space open the possibility of transformation within nursing education and practice. This model has been applied in a study of the experience of nursing students of Pacific ethnicity in New Zealand. Subsequently, an undergraduate Pacific nursing program was developed, with greatly increased success rates in registration of Pacific nurses. This model of cultural diversity can also be used to understand nursing practice involving people from minority cultures or other socially excluded categories. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

Asymmetry and polarity of the South Atlantic conjugated margins related to the presence of cratons: a numerical study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrés-Martínez, Miguel; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; de Monserrat Navarro, Albert; Morgan, Jason P.

2015-04-01

Tectonic asymmetry of conjugated passive margins, where one margin is much narrower than the conjugate one, is commonly observed at many passive margins world-wide. Conjugate margin asymmetry has been suggested to be a consequence of lateral changes in rheology, composition, temperature gradient or geometries of the crust and lithosphere. Here we use the South Atlantic margins (from Camamu/Gabon to North Santos/South Kwanza) as a natural laboratory to understand conjugate margin asymmetry. Along this margin sector the polarity of the asymmetry changes. To the North, the Brazilian margin developed in the strong Sao Francisco craton, and this constitutes the narrow side of the conjugate pair. To the South, the Brazilian margin developed in the Ribeira fold belt, and the margin is wide. The opposite is true for the African side. We have thus numerically analysed how the relative distance between the initial location of extension and the craton influences the symmetry/asymmetry and polarity of the conjugate margin system. Our numerical model is 2D visco-elasto-plastic and has a free surface, strain weakening and shear heating. The initial set-up includes a cratonic domain, a mobile belt and a transition area between both. We have run tests with different rheologies, thickness of the lithosphere, and weak seeds at different distances from the craton. Results show asymmetric conjugated margins, where the narrower margin is generally the closest to the craton. Our models also allow us to study how the polarity is controlled by the distance between the initial weakness and the craton, and help to understand how the presence of cratonic domains affects the final architecture of the conjugated margins.

A margin model to account for respiration-induced tumour motion and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coolens, Catherine; Webb, Steve; Shirato, H.; Nishioka, K.; Evans, Phil M.

2008-08-01

In order to reduce the sensitivity of radiotherapy treatments to organ motion, compensation methods are being investigated such as gating of treatment delivery, tracking of tumour position, 4D scanning and planning of the treatment, etc. An outstanding problem that would occur with all these methods is the assumption that breathing motion is reproducible throughout the planning and delivery process of treatment. This is obviously not a realistic assumption and is one that will introduce errors. A dynamic internal margin model (DIM) is presented that is designed to follow the tumour trajectory and account for the variability in respiratory motion. The model statistically describes the variation of the breathing cycle over time, i.e. the uncertainty in motion amplitude and phase reproducibility, in a polar coordinate system from which margins can be derived. This allows accounting for an additional gating window parameter for gated treatment delivery as well as minimizing the area of normal tissue irradiated. The model was illustrated with abdominal motion for a patient with liver cancer and tested with internal 3D lung tumour trajectories. The results confirm that the respiratory phases around exhale are most reproducible and have the smallest variation in motion amplitude and phase (approximately 2 mm). More importantly, the margin area covering normal tissue is significantly reduced by using trajectory-specific margins (as opposed to conventional margins) as the angular component is by far the largest contributor to the margin area. The statistical approach to margin calculation, in addition, offers the possibility for advanced online verification and updating of breathing variation as more data become available.

Tethyan, Mediterranean, and Pacific analogues for the Neoproterozoic Paleozoic birth and development of peri-Gondwanan terranes and their transfer to Laurentia and Laurussia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keppie, J. Duncan; Nance, R. Damian; Murphy, J. Brendan; Dostal, J.

2003-04-01

Modern Tethyan, Mediterranean, and Pacific analogues are considered for several Appalachian, Caledonian, and Variscan terranes (Carolina, West and East Avalonia, Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, Suwannee, and Cadomia) that originated along the northern margin of Neoproterozoic Gondwana. These terranes record a protracted geological history that includes: (1) ˜1 Ga (Carolina, Avalonia, Oaxaquia, Chortis, and Suwannee) or ˜2 Ga (Cadomia) basement; (2) 750-600 Ma arc magmatism that diachronously switched to rift magmatism between 590 and 540 Ma, accompanied by development of rift basins and core complexes, in the absence of collisional orogenesis; (3) latest Neoproterozoic-Cambrian separation of Avalonia and Carolina from Gondwana leading to faunal endemism and the development of bordering passive margins; (4) Ordovician transport of Avalonia and Carolina across Iapetus terminating in Late Ordovician-Early Silurian accretion to the eastern Laurentian margin followed by dispersion along this margin; (5) Siluro-Devonian transfer of Cadomia across the Rheic Ocean; and (6) Permo-Carboniferous transfer of Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, and Suwannee during the amalgamation of Pangea. Three potential models are provided by more recent tectonic analogues: (1) an "accordion" model based on the orthogonal opening and closing of Alpine Tethys and the Mediterranean; (2) a "bulldozer" model based on forward-modelling of Australia during which oceanic plateaus are dispersed along the Australian plate margin; and (3) a "Baja" model based on the Pacific margin of North America where the diachronous replacement of subduction by transform faulting as a result of ridge-trench collision has been followed by rifting and the transfer of Baja California to the Pacific Plate. Future transport and accretion along the western Laurentian margin may mimic that of Baja British Columbia. Present geological data for Avalonia and Carolina favour a transition from a "Baja" model to a "bulldozer" model. By analogy with the eastern Pacific, we name the oceanic plates off northern Gondwana: Merlin (≡Farallon), Morgana (≡Pacific), and Mordred (≡Kula). If Neoproterozoic subduction was towards Gondwana, application of this combined model requires a total rotation of East Avalonia and Carolina through 180° either during separation (using a western Transverse Ranges model), during accretion (using a Baja British Columbia "train wreck" model), or during dispersion (using an Australia "bulldozer" model). On the other hand, Siluro-Devonian orthogonal transfer ("accordion" model) from northern Africa to southern Laurussia followed by a Carboniferous "Baja" model appears to best fit the existing data for Cadomia. Finally, Oaxaquia, Chortis, Maya, and Suwannee appear to have been transported along the margin of Gondwana until it collided with southern Laurentia on whose margin they were stranded following the breakup of Pangea. Forward modeling of a closing Mediterranean followed by breakup on the African margin may provide a modern analogue. These actualistic models differ in their dictates on the initial distribution of the peri-Gondwanan terranes and can be tested by comparing features of the modern analogues with their ancient tectonic counterparts.

An Integrative Cultural Model to better situate marginalized science students in postsecondary science education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Labouta, Hagar Ibrahim; Adams, Jennifer Dawn; Cramb, David Thomas

2018-03-01

In this paper we reflect on the article "I am smart enough to study postsecondary science: a critical discourse analysis of latecomers' identity construction in an online forum", by Phoebe Jackson and Gale Seiler (Cult Stud Sci Educ. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11422-017-9818-0). In their article, the authors did a significant amount of qualitative analysis of a discussion on an online forum by four latecomer students with past negative experiences in science education. The students used this online forum as an out-of-class resource to develop a cultural model based on their ability to ask questions together with solidarity as a new optimistic way to position themselves in science. In this forum, we continue by discussing the identity of marginalized science students in relation to resources available in postsecondary science classes. Recent findings on a successful case of a persistent marginalized science student in spite of prior struggles and failures are introduced. Building on their model and our results, we proposed a new cultural model, emphasizing interaction between inside and outside classroom resources which can further our understanding of the identity of marginalized science students. Exploring this cultural model could better explain drop-outs or engagement of marginalized science students to their study. We, then, used this model to reflect on both current traditional and effective teaching and learning practices truncating or re-enforcing relationships of marginalized students with the learning environment. In this way, we aim to further the discussion initiated by Jackson and Seiler and offer possible frameworks for future research on the interactions between marginalized students with past low achievements and other high and mid achieving students, as well as other interactions between resources inside and outside science postsecondary classrooms.

Genealogical Working Distributions for Bayesian Model Testing with Phylogenetic Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Marginal likelihood estimates to compare models using Bayes factors frequently accompany Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Approaches to estimate marginal likelihoods have garnered increased attention over the past decade. In particular, the introduction of path sampling (PS) and stepping-stone sampling (SS) into Bayesian phylogenetics has tremendously improved the accuracy of model selection. These sampling techniques are now used to evaluate complex evolutionary and population genetic models on empirical data sets, but considerable computational demands hamper their widespread adoption. Further, when very diffuse, but proper priors are specified for model parameters, numerical issues complicate the exploration of the priors, a necessary step in marginal likelihood estimation using PS or SS. To avoid such instabilities, generalized SS (GSS) has recently been proposed, introducing the concept of “working distributions” to facilitate—or shorten—the integration process that underlies marginal likelihood estimation. However, the need to fix the tree topology currently limits GSS in a coalescent-based framework. Here, we extend GSS by relaxing the fixed underlying tree topology assumption. To this purpose, we introduce a “working” distribution on the space of genealogies, which enables estimating marginal likelihoods while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. We propose two different “working” distributions that help GSS to outperform PS and SS in terms of accuracy when comparing demographic and evolutionary models applied to synthetic data and real-world examples. Further, we show that the use of very diffuse priors can lead to a considerable overestimation in marginal likelihood when using PS and SS, while still retrieving the correct marginal likelihood using both GSS approaches. The methods used in this article are available in BEAST, a powerful user-friendly software package to perform Bayesian evolutionary analyses. PMID:26526428

Deciphering the complex: methodological overview of statistical models to derive OMICS-based biomarkers.

PubMed

Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Campanella, Gianluca; Jombart, Thibaut; Bottolo, Leonardo; Portengen, Lutzen; Vineis, Paolo; Liquet, Benoit; Vermeulen, Roel C H

2013-08-01

Recent technological advances in molecular biology have given rise to numerous large-scale datasets whose analysis imposes serious methodological challenges mainly relating to the size and complex structure of the data. Considerable experience in analyzing such data has been gained over the past decade, mainly in genetics, from the Genome-Wide Association Study era, and more recently in transcriptomics and metabolomics. Building upon the corresponding literature, we provide here a nontechnical overview of well-established methods used to analyze OMICS data within three main types of regression-based approaches: univariate models including multiple testing correction strategies, dimension reduction techniques, and variable selection models. Our methodological description focuses on methods for which ready-to-use implementations are available. We describe the main underlying assumptions, the main features, and advantages and limitations of each of the models. This descriptive summary constitutes a useful tool for driving methodological choices while analyzing OMICS data, especially in environmental epidemiology, where the emergence of the exposome concept clearly calls for unified methods to analyze marginally and jointly complex exposure and OMICS datasets. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Meandering Margin of the Meteorological Moist Tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mapes, Brian E.; Chung, Eui Seok; Hannah, Walter M.; Masunaga, Hirohiko; Wimmers, Anthony J.; Velden, Christopher S.

2018-01-01

Bimodally distributed column water vapor (CWV) indicates a well-defined moist regime in the Tropics, above a margin value near 48 kg m-2 in current climate (about 80% of column saturation). Maps reveal this margin as a meandering, sinuous synoptic contour bounding broad plateaus of the moist regime. Within these plateaus, convective storms of distinctly smaller convective and mesoscales occur sporadically. Satellite data composites across the poleward most margin reveal its sharpness, despite the crude averaging: precipitation doubles within 100 km, marked by both enhancement and deepening of cloudiness. Transported patches and filaments of the moist regime cause consequential precipitation events within and beyond the Tropics. Distinguishing synoptic flows that cross the margin from flows that move the margin is made possible by a novel satellite-based Lagrangian CWV tendency estimate. Climate models do not reliably reproduce the observed bimodal distribution, so studying the moist mode's maintenance processes and the margin-zone air mass transformations, guided by the Lagrangian tendency product, might importantly constrain model moist process treatments.

The Geodetic Signature of the Earthquake Cycle at Subduction Zones: Model Constraints on the Deep Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Govers, R.; Furlong, K. P.; van de Wiel, L.; Herman, M. W.; Broerse, T.

2018-03-01

Recent megathrust events in Tohoku (Japan), Maule (Chile), and Sumatra (Indonesia) were well recorded. Much has been learned about the dominant physical processes in megathrust zones: (partial) locking of the plate interface, detailed coseismic slip, relocking, afterslip, viscoelastic mantle relaxation, and interseismic loading. These and older observations show complex spatial and temporal patterns in crustal deformation and displacement, and significant differences among different margins. A key question is whether these differences reflect variations in the underlying processes, like differences in locking, or the margin geometry, or whether they are a consequence of the stage in the earthquake cycle of the margin. Quantitative models can connect these plate boundary processes to surficial and far-field observations. We use relatively simple, cyclic geodynamic models to isolate the first-order geodetic signature of the megathrust cycle. Coseismic and subsequent slip on the subduction interface is dynamically (and consistently) driven. A review of global preseismic, coseismic, and postseismic geodetic observations, and of their fit to the model predictions, indicates that similar physical processes are active at different margins. Most of the observed variability between the individual margins appears to be controlled by their different stages in the earthquake cycle. The modeling results also provide a possible explanation for observations of tensile faulting aftershocks and tensile cracking of the overriding plate, which are puzzling in the context of convergence/compression. From the inversion of our synthetic GNSS velocities we find that geodetic observations may incorrectly suggest weak locking of some margins, for example, the west Aleutian margin.

Drivers of Hospital Costs in the Self-Pay Facelift (Rhytidectomy) Patient: Analysis of Hospital Resource Utilization in 1890 Patients.

PubMed

Chattha, Anmol; Bucknor, Alexandra; Chi, David; Ultee, Klaas; Chen, Austin D; Lin, Samuel J

2018-04-01

Rhytidectomy is one of the most commonly performed cosmetic procedures by plastic surgeons. Increasing attention to the development of a high-value, low-cost healthcare system is a priority in the USA. This study aims to analyze specific patient and hospital factors affecting the cost of this procedure. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of self-pay patients over the age of 18 who underwent rhytidectomy using the Healthcare Utilization Cost Project National Inpatient Sample database between 2013 and 2014. Mean marginal cost increases patient characteristics, and outcomes were studied. Generalized linear modeling with gamma regression and a log-link function were performed along with estimated marginal means to provide cost estimates. A total of 1890 self-pay patients underwent rhytidectomy. Median cost was $11,767 with an interquartile range of $8907 [$6976-$15,883]. The largest marginal cost increases were associated with postoperative hematoma ($12,651; CI $8181-$17,120), West coast region ($7539; 95% CI $6412-$8666), and combined rhinoplasty ($7824; 95% CI $3808-$11,840). The two risk factors associated with the generation of highest marginal inpatient costs were smoking ($4147; 95% CI $2804-$5490) and diabetes mellitus ($5622; 95% CI $3233-8011). High-volume hospitals had a decreased cost of - $1331 (95% CI - $2032 to - $631). Cost variation for inpatient rhytidectomy procedures is dependent on preoperative risk factors (diabetes and smoking), postoperative complications (hematoma), and regional trends (West region). Rhytidectomy surgery is highly centralized and increasing hospital volume significantly decreases costs. Clinicians and hospitals can use this information to discuss the drivers of cost in patients undergoing rhytidectomy. This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

The association between socio-demographic marginalization and plasma glucose levels at diagnosis of gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Sampson, L; Dasgupta, K; Ross, N A

2014-12-01

We examined the association between socio-demographic marginalization and plasma glucose levels at diagnosis of gestational diabetes in a multi-ethnic and socio-economically diverse patient group. Medical charts at a Toronto gestational diabetes clinic were reviewed for women with a recorded pregnancy between 1 March 2006 and 26 April 2011. One-hour 50-g glucose challenge test values and postal code data were abstracted. Postal codes were merged with 2006 Canadian census data to compute neighbourhood-level ethnic concentration (% recent immigrants, % visible minorities) and material deprivation (% low education, % low income, single-parent households). We compared women in the highest neighbourhood quintiles for both ethnic concentration and material deprivation with all other women to explore an association between marginalization and diagnostic glucose levels. Multivariate regression models of glucose challenge test values and insulin prescription were adjusted for age, prior gestational diabetes, parity and diabetes family history. Among 531 patients with complete glucose challenge test data (mean 11.94 mmol/l, sd 1.83), those in the most marginalized neighbourhoods had 0.43 mmol/l higher glucose challenge test values (95% CI 0.08-0.78) compared with the rest of the study population. Other factors associated with higher glucose challenge test values were prior gestational diabetes (0.59 mmol/l increment, 95% CI 0.19-0.99) and diabetes family history (0.32 mmol/l increment, 95% CI -0.01 to 0.66). Each additional 1 mmol/l glucose challenge test result was associated with an increased likelihood of being prescribed insulin (odds ratio 1.33, 95% CI 1.17-1.51). Women living in the most materially deprived and ethnically concentrated neighbourhoods have higher glucose levels at diagnosis of gestational diabetes. They may need close monitoring for timely initiation of insulin. © 2014 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2014 Diabetes UK.

Optimal moment determination in POME-copula based hydrometeorological dependence modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Dengfeng; Wang, Dong; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Yuankun; Wu, Jichun; Wang, Lachun; Zou, Xinqing; Chen, Yuanfang; Chen, Xi

2017-07-01

Copula has been commonly applied in multivariate modelling in various fields where marginal distribution inference is a key element. To develop a flexible, unbiased mathematical inference framework in hydrometeorological multivariate applications, the principle of maximum entropy (POME) is being increasingly coupled with copula. However, in previous POME-based studies, determination of optimal moment constraints has generally not been considered. The main contribution of this study is the determination of optimal moments for POME for developing a coupled optimal moment-POME-copula framework to model hydrometeorological multivariate events. In this framework, margins (marginals, or marginal distributions) are derived with the use of POME, subject to optimal moment constraints. Then, various candidate copulas are constructed according to the derived margins, and finally the most probable one is determined, based on goodness-of-fit statistics. This optimal moment-POME-copula framework is applied to model the dependence patterns of three types of hydrometeorological events: (i) single-site streamflow-water level; (ii) multi-site streamflow; and (iii) multi-site precipitation, with data collected from Yichang and Hankou in the Yangtze River basin, China. Results indicate that the optimal-moment POME is more accurate in margin fitting and the corresponding copulas reflect a good statistical performance in correlation simulation. Also, the derived copulas, capturing more patterns which traditional correlation coefficients cannot reflect, provide an efficient way in other applied scenarios concerning hydrometeorological multivariate modelling.

Constructing inverse probability weights for continuous exposures: a comparison of methods.

PubMed

Naimi, Ashley I; Moodie, Erica E M; Auger, Nathalie; Kaufman, Jay S

2014-03-01

Inverse probability-weighted marginal structural models with binary exposures are common in epidemiology. Constructing inverse probability weights for a continuous exposure can be complicated by the presence of outliers, and the need to identify a parametric form for the exposure and account for nonconstant exposure variance. We explored the performance of various methods to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures using Monte Carlo simulation. We generated two continuous exposures and binary outcomes using data sampled from a large empirical cohort. The first exposure followed a normal distribution with homoscedastic variance. The second exposure followed a contaminated Poisson distribution, with heteroscedastic variance equal to the conditional mean. We assessed six methods to construct inverse probability weights using: a normal distribution, a normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a truncated normal distribution with heteroscedastic variance, a gamma distribution, a t distribution (1, 3, and 5 degrees of freedom), and a quantile binning approach (based on 10, 15, and 20 exposure categories). We estimated the marginal odds ratio for a single-unit increase in each simulated exposure in a regression model weighted by the inverse probability weights constructed using each approach, and then computed the bias and mean squared error for each method. For the homoscedastic exposure, the standard normal, gamma, and quantile binning approaches performed best. For the heteroscedastic exposure, the quantile binning, gamma, and heteroscedastic normal approaches performed best. Our results suggest that the quantile binning approach is a simple and versatile way to construct inverse probability weights for continuous exposures.

Significance and outcome of nuclear anaplasia and mitotic index in prostatic adenocarcinomas.

PubMed

Kır, Gozde; Sarbay, Billur Cosan; Gumus, Eyup

2016-10-01

The Gleason grading system measures architectural differentiation and disregards nuclear atypia and the cell proliferation index. Several studies have reported that nuclear grade and mitotic index (MI) are prognostically useful. This study included 232 radical prostatectomy specimens. Nuclear anaplasia (NA) was determined on the basis of nucleomegali (at least 20µm); vesicular chromatin; eosinophilic macronucleoli, nuclear lobulation, and irregular thickened nuclear membranei. The proportion of area of NA was recorded in each tumor in 10% increments. The MI was defined as the number of mitotic figures in 10 consecutive high-power fields (HPF). In univariate analysis, significant differences included associations between biochemical prostate-specific antigen recurrence (BCR) and Gleason score, extraprostatic extension, positive surgical margin, the presence of high-pathologic stage, NA≥10% of tumor area, MI≥3/10 HPF, and preoperative prostate-specific antigen. In a stepwise Cox regression model, a positive surgical margin, the presence of a NA≥10% of tumor area, and a MI of≥3/10 HPF were independent predictors of BCR after radical prostatectomy. NA≥10% of tumor area appeared to have a stronger association with outcome than MI≥3/10 HPF, as still associated with BCR when Gleason score was in the model. The results of our study showed that, in addition to the conventional Gleason grading system, NA, and MI are useful prognostic parameters while evaluating long-term prognosis in prostatic adenocarcinoma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting relative impacts of land use on anadromous fish habitat to guide conservation planning.

PubMed

Lohse, Kathleen A; Newburn, David A; Opperman, Jeff J; Merenlender, Adina M

2008-03-01

Land use change can adversely affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems, yet our ability to predict how systems will respond to different land uses, particularly rural-residential development, is limited by data availability and our understanding of biophysical thresholds. In this study, we use spatially explicit parcel-level data to examine the influence of land use (including urban, rural-residential, and vineyard) on salmon spawning substrate quality in tributaries of the Russian River in California. We develop a land use change model to forecast the probability of losses in high-quality spawning habitat and recommend priority areas for incentive-based land conservation efforts. Ordinal logistic regression results indicate that all three land use types were negatively associated with spawning substrate quality, with urban development having the largest marginal impact. For two reasons, however, forecasted rural-residential and vineyard development have much larger influences on decreasing spawning substrate quality relative to urban development. First, the land use change model estimates 10 times greater land use conversion to both rural-residential and vineyard compared to urban. Second, forecasted urban development is concentrated in the most developed watersheds, which already have poor spawning substrate quality, such that the marginal response to future urban development is less significant. To meet the goals of protecting salmonid spawning habitat and optimizing investments in salmon recovery, we suggest investing in watersheds where future rural-residential development and vineyards threaten high-quality fish habitat, rather than the most developed watersheds, where land values are higher.

A biocultural perspective on fictive kinship in the Andes: social support and women's immune function in El Alto, Bolivia.

PubMed

Hicks, Kathryn

2014-09-01

This article examines the influence of emotional and instrumental support on women's immune function, a biomarker of stress, in the city of El Alto, Bolivia. It tests the prediction that instrumental support is protective of immune function for women living in this marginal environment. Qualitative and quantitative ethnographic methods were employed to assess perceived emotional and instrumental support and common sources of support; multiple linear regression analysis was used to model the relationship between social support and antibodies to the Epstein-Barr virus. These analyses provided no evidence that instrumental social support is related to women's health, but there is some evidence that emotional support from compadres helps protect immune function. © 2014 by the American Anthropological Association.

Medical and Social Determinants of Subsequent Labour Market Marginalization in Young Hospitalized Suicide Attempters.

PubMed

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Tinghög, Petter; Goldman-Mellor, Sidra; Wilcox, Holly C; Gould, Madelyn; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor

2016-01-01

Individuals with a history of suicide attempt have a high risk for subsequent labour market marginalization. This study aimed at assessing the effect of individual and parental factors on different measures of marginalization. Prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 5 649 individuals who in 1994 were 16-30 years old, lived in Sweden and were treated in inpatient care for suicide attempt during 1992-1994. Hazard ratios (HRs) for labour market marginalization defined as long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days), or disability pension in 1995-2010 were calculated with Cox regression. Medical risk factors, particularly any earlier diagnosed specific mental disorders (e.g., schizophrenia: HR 5.4 (95% CI: 4.2, 7.0), personality disorders: HR 3.9, 95% CI: 3.1, 4.9), repetitive suicide attempts (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4, 1.9) were associated with a higher relative risk of disability pension. Individual medical factors were of smaller importance for long-term sickness absence, and of only marginal relevance to long-term unemployment. Country of birth outside Europe had an opposite effect on disability pension (HR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.8) and long-term unemployment (HR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.8). Female sex was positively correlated with long-term sickness absence (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4, 1.7), and negatively associated with long-term unemployment (HR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.7, 0.9). As compared to disability pension, long-term sickness absence and unemployment was more strongly related to socio-economic variables. Marginalization pathways seemed to vary with migration status and sex. These findings may contribute to the development of intervention strategies which take the individual risk for marginalization into account.

Price, Weather, and `Acreage Abandonment' in Western Great Plains Wheat Culture.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaels, Patrick J.

1983-07-01

Multivariate analyses of acreage abandonment patterns in the U.S. Great Plains winter wheat region indicate that the major mode of variation is an in-phase oscillation confined to the western half of the overall area, which is also the area with lowest average yields. This is one of the more agroclimatically marginal environments in the United States, with wide interannual fluctuations in both climate and profitability.We developed a multiple regression model to determine the relative roles of weather and expected price in the decision not to harvest. The overall model explained 77% of the spatial and temporal variation in abandonment. The 36.5% of the non-spatial variation was explained by two simple transformations of climatic data from three monthly aggregates-September-October, November-February and March-April. Price factors, expressed as indexed future delivery quotations,were barely significant, with only between 3 and 5% of the non-spatial variation explained, depending upon the model.The model was based upon weather, climate and price data from 1932 through 1975. It was tested by sequentially withholding three-year blocks of data, and using the respecified regression coefficients, along with observed weather and price, to estimate abandonment in the withheld years. Error analyses indicate no loss of model fidelity in the test mode. Also, prediction errors in the 1970-75 period, characterized by widely fluctuating prices, were not different from those in the rest of the model.The overall results suggest that the perceived quality of the crop, as influenced by weather, is a much more important determinant of the abandonment decision than are expected returns based upon price considerations.

Adolescent Literacy on the Margin: Regression-Discontinuity Evidence from a "Double Dose" Middle Grades Literacy Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dougherty, Shaun M.

2013-01-01

This paper provides causal evidence to answer the question, "Does the application of a double dose of literacy instruction in middle school improve student performance on subsequent academic outcomes?" The focus of this paper is on an intervention where the second dose of literacy instruction uses research-based instructional strategies,…

Betting against Youth: The Effects of Socioeconomic Marginality on Gambling among Young People.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schissel, Bernard

2001-01-01

Uses 1996 Saskatchewan Youth Attitude Survey data to explore the nature of youth gambling and its relation to social disadvantage, comparing minority and white youth and males and females. Results indicate that youth gamble significantly, and youth gambling is a form of regressive taxation that exploits those most vulnerable because of their…

Thermo-mechanical models of obduction applied to the Oman ophiolite

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thibault, Duretz; Philippe, Agard; Philippe, Yamato; Céline, Ducassou; Taras, Gerya; Evguenii, Burov

2015-04-01

During obduction regional-scale fragments of oceanic lithosphere (ophiolites) are emplaced somewhat enigmatically on top of lighter continental lithosphere. We herein use two-dimensional thermo-mechanical models to investigate the feasibility and controlling parameters of obduction. The models are designed using available geological data from the Oman (Semail) ophiolite. Initial and boundary conditions are constrained by plate kinematic and geochronological data and modeling results are validated against petrological and structural observations. The reference model consists of three distinct stages: (1) initiation of oceanic subduction initiation away from Arabian margin, (2) emplacement of the Oman Ophiolite atop the Arabian margin, (2) dome-like exhumation of the subducted Arabian margin beneath the overlying ophiolite. A parametric study suggests that 350-400 km of shortening allows to best fit both the peak P-T conditions of the subducted margin (1.5-2.5 GPa / 450-600°C) and the dimensions of the ophiolite (~170 km width), in agreement with previous estimations. Our results further confirm that the locus of obduction initiation is close to the eastern edge of the Arabian margin (~100 km) and indicate that obduction is facilitated by a strong continental basement rheology.

Combined Stereophotogrammetry and Laser-Sintered, Computer-Aided Milling Framework for an Implant-Supported Mandibular Prosthesis: A Case History Report.

PubMed

Suarez, Maria J; Paisal, Iria; Rodriguez-Alonso, Veronica; Lopez-Suarez, Carlos

This study compared the marginal gaps of computer-aided design/computer-aided manufacture (CAD/CAM)-fabricated all-ceramic crowns constructed from scanned impressions and models and with two different occlusal reduction designs. Two typodont mandibular first molars were prepared to receive CAD/CAM-fabricated all-ceramic crowns. Both molars were prepared to ideal crown reduction, the first with anatomical occlusal reduction (AOR) and the second with completely flat occlusal reduction (FOR). Nine polyvinyl siloxane impressions (PVS) were taken, and nine stone replicas fabricated for each preparation. All impressions and stone models were scanned using a laser scanner (Planmeca Planscan, E4D technologies), and 36 lithium disilicate (IPS e.max CAD) crowns were milled. The marginal gap was measured in four locations using a light stereomicroscope. Crowns constructed from preparations with both occlusal reduction designs demonstrated similar marginal gaps (FOR = 97.98; AOR = 89.12; P = .739). However, all crowns constructed from scanned impressions presented significantly larger marginal gaps than the crowns fabricated from scanned models (impressions = 109.26; models = 77.84; P = .002). Scanning stone models produced all-ceramic crowns with significantly smaller marginal gaps than scanning impressions, irrespective of the occlusal reduction design.

Fracture resistance and marginal discrepancy of porcelain laminate veneers influenced by preparation design and restorative material in vitro.

PubMed

Lin, Tai-Min; Liu, Perng-Ru; Ramp, Lance C; Essig, Milton E; Givan, Daniel A; Pan, Yu-Hwa

2012-03-01

The purpose of this investigation is to evaluate marginal discrepancy and fracture resistance of two veneering materials using two preparation designs. Two veneer preparation designs (full and traditional) were restored with leucite-reinforced ceramic (ProCAD, Ivoclar Vivadent, Amherst, NY) milled by CAD/CAM (Cerec 3D milling system, Serona Dental Systems), and conventional sintered feldspathic porcelain (Noritake Super Porcelain EX3, Noritake Dental Supply Co). Forty-eight specimens were analysed with a sample size of n=12 per group. The thickness of each veneer was measured on four specific surfaces. Marginal discrepancy was evaluated with a replica technique and cross-sectional view using a digital microscope. The fracture resistance of veneers cemented on standardised composite resin dies was evaluated using a universal testing machine. Results were analysed with ANOVA, Tukey-Kramer post hoc testing, and linear regression. The results of this investigation revealed no correlation between the thickness and marginal discrepancy of the veneers. The full preparation design with ProCAD and the traditional preparation design with feldspathic porcelain manifested smaller gap. Fracture resistance was decreased for the full preparation design with feldspathic porcelain. In terms of marginal discrepancy and fracture resistance, the most favourable combination was a traditional veneer preparation design with conventional sintered feldspathic porcelain. For the full veneer preparation, a stronger ceramic material such as ProCAD is suggested. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Variability of the geothermal gradient across two differently aged magma-rich continental rifted margins of the Atlantic Ocean: the Southwest African and the Norwegian margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gholamrezaie, Ershad; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Sippel, Judith; Strecker, Manfred R.

2018-02-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the shallow thermal field differences for two differently aged passive continental margins by analyzing regional variations in geothermal gradient and exploring the controlling factors for these variations. Hence, we analyzed two previously published 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models of the Southwest African and the Norwegian passive margins. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysical data such as seismic observations and the gravity field. We extracted the temperature-depth distributions in 1 km intervals down to 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition. The geothermal gradient was then calculated for these intervals between the upper thermal boundary condition and the respective depth levels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition). According to our results, the geothermal gradient decreases with increasing depth and shows varying lateral trends and values for these two different margins. We compare the 3-D geological structural models and the geothermal gradient variations for both thermal models and show how radiogenic heat production, sediment insulating effect, and thermal lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth influence the shallow thermal field pattern. The results indicate an ongoing process of oceanic mantle cooling at the young Norwegian margin compared with the old SW African passive margin that seems to be thermally equilibrated in the present day.

Stochastic search, optimization and regression with energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, Lauren A.

Designing clean energy systems will be an important task over the next few decades. One of the major roadblocks is a lack of mathematical tools to economically evaluate those energy systems. However, solutions to these mathematical problems are also of interest to the operations research and statistical communities in general. This thesis studies three problems that are of interest to the energy community itself or provide support for solution methods: R&D portfolio optimization, nonparametric regression and stochastic search with an observable state variable. First, we consider the one stage R&D portfolio optimization problem to avoid the sequential decision process associated with the multi-stage. The one stage problem is still difficult because of a non-convex, combinatorial decision space and a non-convex objective function. We propose a heuristic solution method that uses marginal project values---which depend on the selected portfolio---to create a linear objective function. In conjunction with the 0-1 decision space, this new problem can be solved as a knapsack linear program. This method scales well to large decision spaces. We also propose an alternate, provably convergent algorithm that does not exploit problem structure. These methods are compared on a solid oxide fuel cell R&D portfolio problem. Next, we propose Dirichlet Process mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DPGLM), a new method of nonparametric regression that accommodates continuous and categorical inputs, and responses that can be modeled by a generalized linear model. We prove conditions for the asymptotic unbiasedness of the DP-GLM regression mean function estimate. We also give examples for when those conditions hold, including models for compactly supported continuous distributions and a model with continuous covariates and categorical response. We empirically analyze the properties of the DP-GLM and why it provides better results than existing Dirichlet process mixture regression models. We evaluate DP-GLM on several data sets, comparing it to modern methods of nonparametric regression like CART, Bayesian trees and Gaussian processes. Compared to existing techniques, the DP-GLM provides a single model (and corresponding inference algorithms) that performs well in many regression settings. Finally, we study convex stochastic search problems where a noisy objective function value is observed after a decision is made. There are many stochastic search problems whose behavior depends on an exogenous state variable which affects the shape of the objective function. Currently, there is no general purpose algorithm to solve this class of problems. We use nonparametric density estimation to take observations from the joint state-outcome distribution and use them to infer the optimal decision for a given query state. We propose two solution methods that depend on the problem characteristics: function-based and gradient-based optimization. We examine two weighting schemes, kernel-based weights and Dirichlet process-based weights, for use with the solution methods. The weights and solution methods are tested on a synthetic multi-product newsvendor problem and the hour-ahead wind commitment problem. Our results show that in some cases Dirichlet process weights offer substantial benefits over kernel based weights and more generally that nonparametric estimation methods provide good solutions to otherwise intractable problems.

Impacts of flamingos on saline lake margin and shallow lacustrine sediments in the Kenya Rift Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Jennifer J.; Renaut, Robin W.; Owen, R. Bernhart

2012-11-01

Studies of modern, Holocene, and Pleistocene sediments around saline to hypersaline, alkaline Lake Bogoria and Lake Magadi show that evidence of flamingo activity in marginal areas of these lakes is nearly ubiquitous. Flamingos produce discrete structures such as webbed footprints (~ 9 cm long, ~ 11 cm wide) and nest mounds (~ 30 cm wide, ~ 20 cm high), and they also extensively rework sediments in delta front, delta plain, and shoreline areas. Large (~ 0.5-2 cm in diameter), pinched, 'bubble pores' and ped-like mud clumps are formed by the trampling and churning of wet clay-rich sediments in these settings. Flamingo nest mounds, although superficially similar to some thrombolite mounds, are typically internally structureless, unless formed on pre-existing sediments that preserve internal structures. The flamingo mounds consist of a dense, packed oval-shaped core, a surrounding 'body' of packed sediment, and an external layer with a ped-like texture of clumped mud. The nests may contain open holes from roots or feather shafts incorporated into the nest, and (or) burrows produced once the nests are abandoned. In areas with high densities of flamingos, lake margin sediments may be preferentially compacted, particularly at breeding sites, and become resistant to subaerial erosion and the effects of transgressive ravinement on time scales ranging from seasons to tens of thousands of years. The relatively well-compacted nest mounds and associated sediments also contribute to the stability of delta distributary channels during regressive-transgressive cycles, and can lead to the minor channelization of unconfined flows where currents are diverted around nest mounds. Pleistocene exhumed surfaces of relatively well-indurated lake margin sediments at Lake Bogoria and Lake Magadi that are interpreted as combined regressive and transgressive surfaces (flooding surface/sequence boundary) preserve evidence of flamingo activities, and are overlain by younger, porous lacustrine silts that preserve large bubble pores produced by flamingos.

The public health benefits of insulation retrofits in existing housing in the United States

PubMed Central

Levy, Jonathan I; Nishioka, Yurika; Spengler, John D

2003-01-01

Background Methodological limitations make it difficult to quantify the public health benefits of energy efficiency programs. To address this issue, we developed a risk-based model to estimate the health benefits associated with marginal energy usage reductions and applied the model to a hypothetical case study of insulation retrofits in single-family homes in the United States. Methods We modeled energy savings with a regression model that extrapolated findings from an energy simulation program. Reductions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions and particle precursors (SO2 and NOx) were quantified using fuel-specific emission factors and marginal electricity analyses. Estimates of population exposure per unit emissions, varying by location and source type, were extrapolated from past dispersion model runs. Concentration-response functions for morbidity and mortality from PM2.5 were derived from the epidemiological literature, and economic values were assigned to health outcomes based on willingness to pay studies. Results In total, the insulation retrofits would save 800 TBTU (8 × 1014 British Thermal Units) per year across 46 million homes, resulting in 3,100 fewer tons of PM2.5, 100,000 fewer tons of NOx, and 190,000 fewer tons of SO2 per year. These emission reductions are associated with outcomes including 240 fewer deaths, 6,500 fewer asthma attacks, and 110,000 fewer restricted activity days per year. At a state level, the health benefits per unit energy savings vary by an order of magnitude, illustrating that multiple factors (including population patterns and energy sources) influence health benefit estimates. The health benefits correspond to $1.3 billion per year in externalities averted, compared with $5.9 billion per year in economic savings. Conclusion In spite of significant uncertainties related to the interpretation of PM2.5 health effects and other dimensions of the model, our analysis demonstrates that a risk-based methodology is viable for national-level energy efficiency programs. PMID:12740041

The role of sense of belonging in self-stigma among people with serious mental illnesses.

PubMed

Treichler, Emily B H; Lucksted, Alicia A

2018-06-01

Self-stigma significantly impacts people with serious mental illnesses. Evidence from other marginalized groups has indicated that sense of belonging may buffer these impacts. The purpose of this study was to assess the buffering of self-stigma by sense of belonging among this population, including the relationship between these effects and self-identification in other marginalized groups. In the study, 267 adults with serious mental illnesses completed demographic, self-stigma, exposure to stigma, and sense of belonging measures. Regression analyses were conducted to determine whether sense of belonging buffered self-stigma and, if so, whether those effects vary by race and gender identification. Sense of belonging buffered self-stigma. Self-identification with other marginalized groups did not impact the buffering effect. Sense of belonging can protect against self-stigma. Self-stigma interventions should integrate components that improve sense of belonging, including community integration. These components should be flexible to meet the cultural context of individual consumers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Sleep Disturbance from Road Traffic, Railways, Airplanes and from Total Environmental Noise Levels in Montreal

PubMed Central

Perron, Stéphane; Plante, Céline; Ragettli, Martina S.; Kaiser, David J.; Goudreau, Sophie; Smargiassi, Audrey

2016-01-01

The objective of our study was to measure the impact of transportation-related noise and total environmental noise on sleep disturbance for the residents of Montreal, Canada. A telephone-based survey on noise-related sleep disturbance among 4336 persons aged 18 years and over was conducted. LNight for each study participant was estimated using a land use regression (LUR) model. Distance of the respondent’s residence to the nearest transportation noise source was also used as an indicator of noise exposure. The proportion of the population whose sleep was disturbed by outdoor environmental noise in the past 4 weeks was 12.4%. The proportion of those affected by road traffic, airplane and railway noise was 4.2%, 1.5% and 1.1%, respectively. We observed an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those exposed to both rail and road noise when compared for those exposed to road only. We did not observe an increased prevalence in sleep disturbance for those that were both exposed to road and planes when compared to those exposed to road or planes only. We developed regression models to assess the marginal proportion of sleep disturbance as a function of estimated LNight and distance to transportation noise sources. In our models, sleep disturbance increased with proximity to transportation noise sources (railway, airplane and road traffic) and with increasing LNight values. Our study provides a quantitative estimate of the association between total environmental noise levels estimated using an LUR model and sleep disturbance from transportation noise. PMID:27529260

GEMAS: prediction of solid-solution phase partitioning coefficients (Kd) for oxoanions and boric acid in soils using mid-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy.

PubMed

Janik, Leslie J; Forrester, Sean T; Soriano-Disla, José M; Kirby, Jason K; McLaughlin, Michael J; Reimann, Clemens

2015-02-01

The authors' aim was to develop rapid and inexpensive regression models for the prediction of partitioning coefficients (Kd), defined as the ratio of the total or surface-bound metal/metalloid concentration of the solid phase to the total concentration in the solution phase. Values of Kd were measured for boric acid (B[OH]3(0)) and selected added soluble oxoanions: molybdate (MoO4(2-)), antimonate (Sb[OH](6-)), selenate (SeO4(2-)), tellurate (TeO4(2-)) and vanadate (VO4(3-)). Models were developed using approximately 500 spectrally representative soils of the Geochemical Mapping of Agricultural Soils of Europe (GEMAS) program. These calibration soils represented the major properties of the entire 4813 soils of the GEMAS project. Multiple linear regression (MLR) from soil properties, partial least-squares regression (PLSR) using mid-infrared diffuse reflectance Fourier-transformed (DRIFT) spectra, and models using DRIFT spectra plus analytical pH values (DRIFT + pH), were compared with predicted log K(d + 1) values. Apart from selenate (R(2)  = 0.43), the DRIFT + pH calibrations resulted in marginally better models to predict log K(d + 1) values (R(2)  = 0.62-0.79), compared with those from PSLR-DRIFT (R(2)  = 0.61-0.72) and MLR (R(2)  = 0.54-0.79). The DRIFT + pH calibrations were applied to the prediction of log K(d + 1) values in the remaining 4313 soils. An example map of predicted log K(d + 1) values for added soluble MoO4(2-) in soils across Europe is presented. The DRIFT + pH PLSR models provided a rapid and inexpensive tool to assess the risk of mobility and potential availability of boric acid and selected oxoanions in European soils. For these models to be used in the prediction of log K(d + 1) values in soils globally, additional research will be needed to determine if soil variability is accounted on the calibration. © 2014 SETAC.

The Short Form 36 English and Chinese versions were equivalent in a multiethnic Asian population.

PubMed

Tan, Maudrene L S; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Lee, Jeannette; Ma, Stefan; Heng, Derrick; Tai, E-Shyong; Thumboo, Julian

2013-07-01

The primary aim of this article was to evaluate measurement equivalence of the English and Chinese versions of the Short Form 36 version 2 (SF-36v2) and Short Form 6D (SF-6D). In this cross-sectional study, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was measured from 4,973 ethnic Chinese subjects using the SF-36v2 questionnaire. Measurement equivalence of domain and utility scores for the English- and Chinese-language SF-36v2 and SF-6D were assessed by examining the score differences between the two languages using linear regression models, with and without adjustment for known determinants of HRQoL. Equivalence was achieved if the 90% confidence interval (CI) of the differences in scores, due to language, fell within a predefined equivalence margin. Compared with English-speaking Chinese, Chinese-speaking Chinese were significantly older (47.6 vs. 55.5 years). All SF-36v2 domains were equivalent after adjusting for known HRQoL. SF-6D utility/items had the 90% CI either fully or partially overlap their predefined equivalence margin. The English- and Chinese-language versions of the SF-36v2 and SF-6D demonstrated equivalence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Prevalence of the attempts to stop pregnancy and associated factors in a marginal suburban community in Lima-Peru, 2006].

PubMed

Tarqui-Mamani, Carolina; Barreda, Alejandro; Barreda, Milagros; Sanabria-Rojas, Hernán

2010-03-01

To estimate the prevalence for the attempts to stop pregnancy among women with history of previous pregnancies, and to determine the factors associated. A cross-sectional study was performed during 2006. Samples included 1057 women with background of pregnancy, living in Pamplona Alta, selected by a systematic random sampling. We applied descriptive and inferential statistics, including a logistic regression model. The prevalence for the attempt to stop pregnancy was 13.9% (99% CI: 11.1-16.7). The factors associated identified by multivariate analysis were: Unwanted pregnancy (OR=5.7; CI: 1.9-16.7), lack of pre-natal care (OR=4.7; CI: 1.8-12.2), prostitution (OR=11.4; CI: 1.5-87.9), age below 20 years (OR=2.9; CI: 1.1-7.9), and having more than two partners (OR=3.3; CI: 1.1-10.2). The estimated prevalence for the attempt to stop pregnancy among women with history of previous pregnancies in a marginal suburban area from Lima was low when compared to the national estimated prevalence of abortion. The associated factors identified for the attempts to stop pregnancy are: unwanted pregnancy, prostitution, age below 20 years, having more than two partners and lack of pre-natal care.

Social support and marginalization as determinants of prenatal care in women with social security in Mexico.

PubMed

Maldonado-Cisneros, Maritza; Medina-Gómez, Oswaldo Sinoe

2018-01-01

Prenatal care ensures favorable results for maternal-fetal health and, to that end, it must be provided early, periodically, comprehensively and with high coverage. To find out the social determinants of prenatal care in women affiliated to the Mexican Institute of Social Security during 2014. Cross-sectional study where the association of social conditions, social support and family functioning with inadequate prenatal care was analyzed. A descriptive analysis was performed; hypothesis tests were used with chi-square (95% level of confidence). The prevalence ratio and Mann-Whitney's U-test were estimated to compare medians and logistic regression. Of the interviewed women, 58.1% had inadequate prenatal care, mainly associated with unplanned pregnancy, poor social support, low level of education and higher marginalization. Not having leaves of absence granted by employers was the main barrier in those women who did not attend health services. There is a need for strategies to be designed and implemented to enable understanding the interaction between different biological and social dimensions of the health-disease process and reduce health inequities that affect pregnant women, in order to achieve good prenatal care and to implement alternative models guaranteeing its efficiency. Copyright: © 2018 SecretarÍa de Salud.

Improving and Evaluating Nested Sampling Algorithm for Marginal Likelihood Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, M.; Zeng, X.; Wu, J.; Wang, D.; Liu, J.

2016-12-01

With the growing impacts of climate change and human activities on the cycle of water resources, an increasing number of researches focus on the quantification of modeling uncertainty. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) provides a popular framework for quantifying conceptual model and parameter uncertainty. The ensemble prediction is generated by combining each plausible model's prediction, and each model is attached with a model weight which is determined by model's prior weight and marginal likelihood. Thus, the estimation of model's marginal likelihood is crucial for reliable and accurate BMA prediction. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed method for marginal likelihood estimation. The process of NSE is accomplished by searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm is often used for local sampling. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complicated parameter space. For improving the efficiency of NSE, it could be ideal to incorporate the robust and efficient sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling of NSE. The comparison results demonstrated that the improved NSE could improve the efficiency of marginal likelihood estimation significantly. However, both improved and original NSEs suffer from heavy instability. In addition, the heavy computation cost of huge number of model executions is overcome by using an adaptive sparse grid surrogates.

First images of the crustal structure across the eastern Algerian margin, from deep penetrating seismic data.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouyahiaoui, Boualem; Abtout, Abdeslam; Sage, Françoise; Klingelhoeffer, Frauke; Collot, Jean-yves; Yelles-chaouche, Abdelkarim; Marok, Abbas; Djellit, Hamou; Galves, Audrey; Bracène, Rabah; Schnurle, Philippe; Graindorge, David; party, Scientific

2013-04-01

The Algerian continental margin North Africa presents one of only a few examples of a passive continental margin formed in a back-arc environment, which undergoes current compression and is proposed to be reactivated today. In the framework of the Algerian - French SPIRAL research program (Sismique Profonde et Investigation Regionale du nord de l'ALgérie), a seismic cruise was conducted on the R/V Atalante from September to November 2009. During the cruise, deep penetrating low frequency multichannel and wide-angle seismic data were acquired in order to study the deep structure of the Algerian margin. In this work, we present the preliminary results from wide-angle modeling of the North-east Algerian margin in the region of Annaba along a N-S transect using a data set of 42 OBS (ocean bottom seismometers) along a profile extending 117km, and 13 broadband seismological stations along a profile of 80 km length. Travel-time tomography and forward modeling were undertaken to model the velocity structure in this region. The resulting velocity models image the thickness of the sedimentary layers, which varies between a few hundred meters on the continental margin of more than 4 km in the basin. The crust is about 6 km thick in the basin, and thickens to 7-8 km between 40 and 60km distance from the margin toe. Crustal thickness increases to about 22 km at the continental slope over a distance of ~ 90 km. The nature of the crust was determined to be thin oceanic with abnormal velocity gradient in the basin, and thinned continental from around 30 km distance from the coast landward. Integration of the wide-angle seismic data with multichannel seismic, gravity and magnetic data will help to better understand the structure of the Algerian margin and the adjacent oceanic basin in the Annaba region, and to discuss the numerous cinematic models proposed in literature regarding the formation of the north-Algerian basin.

Models and analysis for multivariate failure time data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shih, Joanna Huang

The goal of this research is to develop and investigate models and analytic methods for multivariate failure time data. We compare models in terms of direct modeling of the margins, flexibility of dependency structure, local vs. global measures of association, and ease of implementation. In particular, we study copula models, and models produced by right neutral cumulative hazard functions and right neutral hazard functions. We examine the changes of association over time for families of bivariate distributions induced from these models by displaying their density contour plots, conditional density plots, correlation curves of Doksum et al, and local cross ratios of Oakes. We know that bivariate distributions with same margins might exhibit quite different dependency structures. In addition to modeling, we study estimation procedures. For copula models, we investigate three estimation procedures. the first procedure is full maximum likelihood. The second procedure is two-stage maximum likelihood. At stage 1, we estimate the parameters in the margins by maximizing the marginal likelihood. At stage 2, we estimate the dependency structure by fixing the margins at the estimated ones. The third procedure is two-stage partially parametric maximum likelihood. It is similar to the second procedure, but we estimate the margins by the Kaplan-Meier estimate. We derive asymptotic properties for these three estimation procedures and compare their efficiency by Monte-Carlo simulations and direct computations. For models produced by right neutral cumulative hazards and right neutral hazards, we derive the likelihood and investigate the properties of the maximum likelihood estimates. Finally, we develop goodness of fit tests for the dependency structure in the copula models. We derive a test statistic and its asymptotic properties based on the test of homogeneity of Zelterman and Chen (1988), and a graphical diagnostic procedure based on the empirical Bayes approach. We study the performance of these two methods using actual and computer generated data.

Rift migration explains continental margin asymmetry and crustal hyper-extension

PubMed Central

Brune, Sascha; Heine, Christian; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; Sobolev, Stephan V.

2014-01-01

When continents break apart, continental crust and lithosphere are thinned until break-up is achieved and an oceanic basin is formed. The most remarkable and least understood structures associated with this process are up to 200 km wide areas of hyper-extended continental crust, which are partitioned between conjugate margins with pronounced asymmetry. Here we show, using high-resolution thermo-mechanical modelling, that hyper-extended crust and margin asymmetry are produced by steady state rift migration. We demonstrate that rift migration is accomplished by sequential, oceanward-younging, upper crustal faults, and is balanced through lower crustal flow. Constraining our model with a new South Atlantic plate reconstruction, we demonstrate that larger extension velocities may account for southward increasing width and asymmetry of these conjugate magma-poor margins. Our model challenges conventional ideas of rifted margin evolution, as it implies that during rift migration large amounts of material are transferred from one side of the rift zone to the other. PMID:24905463

Joint geophysical and petrological models for the lithosphere structure of the Antarctic Peninsula continental margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yegorova, Tamara; Bakhmutov, Vladimir; Janik, Tomasz; Grad, Marek

2011-01-01

The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is a composite magmatic arc terrane formed at the Pacific margin of Gondwana. Through the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic subduction has stopped progressively from southwest to northeast as a result of a series of ridge trench collisions. Subduction may be active today in the northern part of the AP adjacent to the South Shetland Islands. The subduction system is confined by the Shackleton and Hero fracture zones. The magmatic arc of the AP continental margin is marked by high-amplitude gravity and magnetic anomaly belts reaching highest amplitudes in the region of the South Shetland Islands and trench. The sources for these anomalies are highly magnetic and dense batholiths of mafic bulk composition, which were intruded in the Cretaceous, due to partial melting of upper-mantle and lower-crustal rocks. 2-D gravity and magnetic models provide new insights into crustal and upper-mantle structure of the active and passive margin segments of the northern AP. Our models incorporate seismic refraction constraints and physical property data. This enables us to better constrain both Moho geometry and petrological interpretations in the crust and upper mantle. Model along the DSS-12 profile crosses the AP margin near the Anvers Island and shows typical features of a passive continental margin. The second model along the DSS-17 profile extends from the Drake Passage through the South Shetland Trench/Islands system and Bransfield Strait to the AP and indicates an active continental margin linked to slow subduction and on-going continental rifting in the backarc region. Continental rifting beneath the Bransfield Strait is associated with an upward of hot upper mantle rocks and with extensive magmatic underplating.

Verifiable Adaptive Control with Analytical Stability Margins by Optimal Control Modification

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, Nhan T.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a verifiable model-reference adaptive control method based on an optimal control formulation for linear uncertain systems. A predictor model is formulated to enable a parameter estimation of the system parametric uncertainty. The adaptation is based on both the tracking error and predictor error. Using a singular perturbation argument, it can be shown that the closed-loop system tends to a linear time invariant model asymptotically under an assumption of fast adaptation. A stability margin analysis is given to estimate a lower bound of the time delay margin using a matrix measure method. Using this analytical method, the free design parameter n of the optimal control modification adaptive law can be determined to meet a specification of stability margin for verification purposes.

The Effect of Temperature Dependent Rheology on a Kinematic Model of Continental Breakup and Rifted Continental Margin Formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymms, V. J.; Kusznir, N. J.

2004-12-01

The effect of temperature dependent rheology has been examined for a model of continental lithosphere thinning by an upwelling divergent flow field within continental lithosphere and asthenosphere leading to continental breakup and rifted continental margin formation. The model uses a coupled FE fluid flow and thermal solution and is kinematically driven using a half divergence rate Vx and upwelling velocity Vz. Viscosity structure is modified by the evolving temperature field of the model through the temperature dependent Newtonian rheology. Continental lithosphere and asthenosphere material are advected by the fluid-flow field in order to predict crustal and mantle lithosphere thinning leading to rifted continental margin formation. The results of the temperature dependent rheology model are compared with those of a simple isoviscous model. The temperature dependent rheology model predicts continental lithosphere thinning and depth dependent stretching, similar to that predicted by the uniform viscosity model. However compared with the uniform viscosity model the temperature dependent rheology predicts greater amounts of thinning of the continental crust and lithospheric mantle than the isoviscous solutions. An important parameter within the kinematic model of continental lithosphere breakup and rifted continental margin development is the velocity ratio Vz/Vx. For non-volcanic margins, Vz/Vx is thought to be around unity. Applying a velocity ratio Vz/Vx of unity gives a diffuse ocean-continent transition and exhumation of continental lithospheric mantle. For volcanic margins, Vz/Vx is of order 10, falling to unity with a half-life of order 10 Ma, leading to a more sharply defined ocean-continent transition. While Vx during continental breakup may be estimated, Vz can only be inferred. FE fluid flow solutions, in which Vz is not imposed and without an initial buoyancy driven flow component, predict a velocity ratio Vz/Vx of around unity for both temperature dependent rheology and isovisous fluid-flow solutions. The effect of incorporating a lithology dependent continental lithosphere rheology (quartz-feldspar crust, olivine mantle) with temperature dependence is also being investigated. The work forms part of the Integrated Seismic Imaging and Modelling of Margins (iSIMM*) project. This work forms part of the NERC Margins iSIMM project. iSIMM investigators are from Liverpool and Cambridge Universities, Schlumberger Cambridge Research & Badley Geoscience, supported by the NERC, the DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd, Anadarko, Conoco-Phillips, Shell, Statoil and WesternGeco. The iSIMM team comprises NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, R Spitzer, N Hurst, ZC Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, V Tymms & D. Healy.

Multiple regression analysis in nomogram development for myopic wavefront laser in situ keratomileusis: Improving astigmatic outcomes.

PubMed

Allan, Bruce D; Hassan, Hala; Ieong, Alvin

2015-05-01

To describe and evaluate a new multiple regression-derived nomogram for myopic wavefront laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). Moorfields Eye Hospital, London, United Kingdom. Prospective comparative case series. Multiple regression modeling was used to derive a simplified formula for adjusting attempted spherical correction in myopic LASIK. An adaptation of Thibos' power vector method was then applied to derive adjustments to attempted cylindrical correction in eyes with 1.0 diopter (D) or more of preoperative cylinder. These elements were combined in a new nomogram (nomogram II). The 3-month refractive results for myopic wavefront LASIK (spherical equivalent ≤11.0 D; cylinder ≤4.5 D) were compared between 299 consecutive eyes treated using the earlier nomogram (nomogram I) in 2009 and 2010 and 414 eyes treated using nomogram II in 2011 and 2012. There was no significant difference in treatment accuracy (variance in the postoperative manifest refraction spherical equivalent error) between nomogram I and nomogram II (P = .73, Bartlett test). Fewer patients treated with nomogram II had more than 0.5 D of residual postoperative astigmatism (P = .0001, Fisher exact test). There was no significant coupling between adjustments to the attempted cylinder and the achieved sphere (P = .18, t test). Discarding marginal influences from a multiple regression-derived nomogram for myopic wavefront LASIK had no clinically significant effect on treatment accuracy. Thibos' power vector method can be used to guide adjustments to the treatment cylinder alongside nomograms designed to optimize postoperative spherical equivalent results in myopic LASIK. mentioned. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of fault-bend folding on seismic velocity in the marginal ridge of accretionary prisms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cai, Y.; Wang, Chun-Yong; Hwang, W.-t.; Cochrane, G.R.

1995-01-01

Fluid venting in accretionary prisms, which feeds chemosynthetic biological communities, occurs mostly on the marginal thrust ridge. New seismic data for the marginal ridge of the Cascadia prism show significantly lower velocity than that in the adjacent oceanic basin and place important constraints on the interpretations of why fluid venting occurs mostly on the marginal ridge. We employed a finite-element method to analyze a typical fault-bend folding model to explain the phenomenon. The fault in the model is simulated by contact elements. The elements are characterized not only by finite sliding along a slide line, but also by elastoplastic deformation. We present the results of a stress analysis which show that the marginal ridge is under subhorizontal extension and the frontal thrust is under compression. This state of stress favors the growth of tensile cracks in the marginal ridge, facilitates fluid flow and reduces seismic velocities therein; on the other hand, it may close fluid pathways along the frontal thrust and divert fluid flow to the marginal ridge. ?? 1995 Birkha??user Verlag.

Modelling shoal margin collapses and their morphodynamic effect on channels and shoals in a sandy estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Dijk, W. M.; Mastbergen, D. R.; Van der Werf, J. J.; Leuven, J.; Kleinhans, M. G.

2017-12-01

Channel bank failure and collapses of shoal margins due to flow slides have been recorded in Dutch estuaries for the past 200 years. The effects of these collapses on the morphodynamics of estuaries are unknown, but could potentially increase the dynamics of channel-shoal interactions by causing perturbations of up to a million cubic meters per event, which could impact habitats and navigability. The processes of shoal margin collapses are currently not included in numerical morphodynamic models. The objectives of this study are to investigate where shoal margins collapses typically occur, what their dimensions are, and to model how shoal margin collapses affect the morphodynamics at the channel-shoal scale. We identified 300 shoal margin collapses from bathymetry data of the Western Scheldt estuary for the period 1959-2015, and found that the shape of a shoal margin collapse is well represented by 1/3 of an ellipsoid, and that its volume has a log-normal distribution with an average of 100,000 m3. We implemented a parameterization for shoal margin collapses and tested their effects on morphodynamics in a Delft3D numerical model schematization of the Western Scheldt estuary. Three sets of scenarios were analyzed for near-field morphodynamics and far-field effects on flow pattern and channel-bar morphology: 1) an observed single shoal margin collapse of 2014, 2) collapses on various locations that are susceptible to collapses, and 3) our novel stochastic model producing collapses over a time span of a decade. Results show that single shoal margin collapses only affect the local dynamics in longitudinal direction and dampen out within a year when the collapse is small. When larger disturbances reach the seaward or landward sill at tidal channel junctions over a longer time span, the bed elevation at the sill increases on average and decrease the hydraulic geometry of the channel junctions. The extent of far-field effects is sensitive to the grain-size of the deposit, where finer sediments are transported further away. The location of the deposit across the channel matters for disturbing the region around the collapse, where sediment transport is highest for the strongest residual current. These results imply that disturbances caused by dredging and dumping may likewise affect the dynamics of channel junctions.

Iso-risk air no decompression limits after scoring marginal decompression sickness cases as non-events.

PubMed

Murphy, F Gregory; Swingler, Ashleigh J; Gerth, Wayne A; Howle, Laurens E

2018-01-01

Decompression sickness (DCS) in humans is associated with reductions in ambient pressure that occur during diving, aviation, or certain manned spaceflight operations. Its signs and symptoms can include, but are not limited to, joint pain, radiating abdominal pain, paresthesia, dyspnea, general malaise, cognitive dysfunction, cardiopulmonary dysfunction, and death. Probabilistic models of DCS allow the probability of DCS incidence and time of occurrence during or after a given hyperbaric or hypobaric exposure to be predicted based on how the gas contents or gas bubble volumes vary in hypothetical tissue compartments during the exposure. These models are calibrated using data containing the pressure and respired gas histories of actual exposures, some of which resulted in DCS, some of which did not, and others in which the diagnosis of DCS was not clear. The latter are referred to as marginal DCS cases. In earlier works, a marginal DCS event was typically weighted as 0.1, with a full DCS event being weighted as 1.0, and a non-event being weighted as 0.0. Recent work has shown that marginal DCS events should be weighted as 0.0 when calibrating gas content models. We confirm this indication in the present work by showing that such models have improved performance when calibrated to data with marginal DCS events coded as non-events. Further, we investigate the ramifications of derating marginal events on model-prescribed air diving no-stop limits. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linear Regression Quantile Mapping (RQM) - A new approach to bias correction with consistent quantile trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Passow, Christian; Donner, Reik

2017-04-01

Quantile mapping (QM) is an established concept that allows to correct systematic biases in multiple quantiles of the distribution of a climatic observable. It shows remarkable results in correcting biases in historical simulations through observational data and outperforms simpler correction methods which relate only to the mean or variance. Since it has been shown that bias correction of future predictions or scenario runs with basic QM can result in misleading trends in the projection, adjusted, trend preserving, versions of QM were introduced in the form of detrended quantile mapping (DQM) and quantile delta mapping (QDM) (Cannon, 2015, 2016). Still, all previous versions and applications of QM based bias correction rely on the assumption of time-independent quantiles over the investigated period, which can be misleading in the context of a changing climate. Here, we propose a novel combination of linear quantile regression (QR) with the classical QM method to introduce a consistent, time-dependent and trend preserving approach of bias correction for historical and future projections. Since QR is a regression method, it is possible to estimate quantiles in the same resolution as the given data and include trends or other dependencies. We demonstrate the performance of the new method of linear regression quantile mapping (RQM) in correcting biases of temperature and precipitation products from historical runs (1959 - 2005) of the COSMO model in climate mode (CCLM) from the Euro-CORDEX ensemble relative to gridded E-OBS data of the same spatial and temporal resolution. A thorough comparison with established bias correction methods highlights the strengths and potential weaknesses of the new RQM approach. References: A.J. Cannon, S.R. Sorbie, T.Q. Murdock: Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping - How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes? Journal of Climate, 28, 6038, 2015 A.J. Cannon: Multivariate Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs - Matching Marginal Distributions and Inter-variable Dependence Structure. Journal of Climate, 29, 7045, 2016

Marijuana commercialization and adolescent substance treatment outcomes in Colorado.

PubMed

LeNoue, Sean R; Salomonsen-Sautel, Stacy; Min, Sung-Joon; Thurstone, Christian

2017-12-01

In Colorado, marijuana was legalized for medical use in 2000, commercialized in 2009, and approved for recreational purposes in 2012. Little is known about the association between recent policy changes and adolescent substance treatment outcomes measured by urine drug screens (UDS). This study addressed this research gap. Participants were youth (N = 523) aged 11-19 years who were enrolled in an outpatient motivational interviewing (MI)/cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) plus contingency management (CM) in Denver, Colorado from October 2007 to June 2014. The measures included UDS collected during weekly treatment sessions and sent to a commercial laboratory for quantitative analysis of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)/Creatinine (Cr). Linear regression models and logistic regression models using a Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) approach for repeated measures were completed to answer the study aims. Males, but not females, had a marginally significant increasing trend over time in monthly average THC/Cr (β = 1.99, p = 0.046). There was a significant increasing trend over time (per 30 days) in the odds of having a negative UDS within 6 sessions (OR = 1.02, 95%CI = 1.003-1.04, p = 0.006). Based on these data, substance treatment outcomes from MI and CBT are mixed, but overall treatment appears to remain effective in a state with legalized marijuana. (Am J Addict 2017;26:802-806). © 2017 American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

Depth and Medium-Scale Spatial Processes Influence Fish Assemblage Structure of Unconsolidated Habitats in a Subtropical Marine Park

PubMed Central

Schultz, Arthur L.; Malcolm, Hamish A.; Bucher, Daniel J.; Linklater, Michelle; Smith, Stephen D. A.

2014-01-01

Where biological datasets are spatially limited, abiotic surrogates have been advocated to inform objective planning for Marine Protected Areas. However, this approach assumes close correlation between abiotic and biotic patterns. The Solitary Islands Marine Park, northern NSW, Australia, currently uses a habitat classification system (HCS) to assist with planning, but this is based only on data for reefs. We used Baited Remote Underwater Videos (BRUVs) to survey fish assemblages of unconsolidated substrata at different depths, distances from shore, and across an along-shore spatial scale of 10 s of km (2 transects) to examine how well the HCS works for this dominant habitat. We used multivariate regression modelling to examine the importance of these, and other environmental factors (backscatter intensity, fine-scale bathymetric variation and rugosity), in structuring fish assemblages. There were significant differences in fish assemblages across depths, distance from shore, and over the medium spatial scale of the study: together, these factors generated the optimum model in multivariate regression. However, marginal tests suggested that backscatter intensity, which itself is a surrogate for sediment type and hardness, might also influence fish assemblages and needs further investigation. Species richness was significantly different across all factors: however, total MaxN only differed significantly between locations. This study demonstrates that the pre-existing abiotic HCS only partially represents the range of fish assemblages of unconsolidated habitats in the region. PMID:24824998

Food security among individuals experiencing homelessness and mental illness in the At Home/Chez Soi Trial.

PubMed

O'Campo, Patricia; Hwang, Stephen W; Gozdzik, Agnes; Schuler, Andrée; Kaufman-Shriqui, Vered; Poremski, Daniel; Lazgare, Luis Ivan Palma; Distasio, Jino; Belbraouet, Slimane; Addorisio, Sindi

2017-08-01

Individuals experiencing homelessness are particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. The At Home/Chez Soi study provides a unique opportunity to first examine baseline levels of food security among homeless individuals with mental illness and second to evaluate the effect of a Housing First (HF) intervention on food security in this population. At Home/Chez Soi was a 2-year randomized controlled trial comparing the effectiveness of HF compared with usual care among homeless adults with mental illness, stratified by level of need for mental health services (high or moderate). Logistic regressions tested baseline associations between food security (US Food Security Survey Module), study site, sociodemographic variables, duration of homelessness, alcohol/substance use, physical health and service utilization. Negative binomial regression determined the impact of the HF intervention on achieving levels of high or marginal food security over an 18-month follow-up period (6 to 24 months). Community settings at five Canadian sites (Moncton, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg and Vancouver). Homeless adults with mental illness (n 2148). Approximately 41 % of our sample reported high or marginal food security at baseline, but this figure varied with gender, age, mental health issues and substance use problems. High need participants who received HF were more likely to achieve marginal or high food security than those receiving usual care, but only at the Toronto and Moncton sites. Our large multi-site study demonstrated low levels of food security among homeless experiencing mental illness. HF showed promise for improving food security among participants with high levels of need for mental health services, with notable site differences.

Estimating long-wavelength dynamic topographic change of passive continental margins since the Early Cretaceous

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Dietmar; Hassan, Rakib; Gurnis, Michael; Flament, Nicolas; Williams, Simon

2017-04-01

The influence of mantle convection on dynamic topographic change along continental margins is difficult to unravel, because their stratigraphic record is dominated by tectonic subsidence caused by rifting. Yet, dynamic topography can potentially introduce significant depth anomalies along passive margins, influencing their water depth, sedimentary environments and geohistory. Here we follow a three-fold approach to estimate changes in dynamic topography along both continental interiors and passive margins based on a set of seven global mantle convection models. These models include different methodologies (forward and hybrid backward-forward methods), different plate reconstructions and alternative mantle rheologies. We demonstrate that a geodynamic forward model that includes adiabatic heating in addition to internal heating from radiogenic sources, and a mantle viscosity profile with a gradual increase in viscosity below the mantle transition zone, provides a greatly improved match to the spectral range of residual topography end-members as compared with previous models at very long wavelengths (spherical degrees 2-3). We combine global sea level estimates with predicted surface dynamic topography to evaluate the match between predicted continental flooding patterns and published paleo-coastlines by comparing predicted versus geologically reconstructed land fractions and spatial overlaps of flooded regions for individual continents since 140 Ma. Modelled versus geologically reconstructed land fractions match within 10% for most models, and the spatial overlaps of inundated regions are mostly between 85% and 100% for the Cenozoic, dropping to about 75-100% in the Cretaceous. We categorise the evolution of modelled dynamic topography in both continental interiors and along passive margins using cluster analysis to investigate how clusters of similar dynamic topography time series are distributed spatially. A subdivision of four clusters is found to best reveal end-members of dynamic topography evolution along passive margins and their hinterlands, differentiating topographic stability, long-term pronounced subsidence, initial stability over a dynamic high followed by moderate subsidence and regions that are relatively proximal to subduction zones with varied dynamic topography histories. Along passive continental margins the most commonly observed process is a gradual move from dynamic highs towards lows during the fragmentation of Pangea, reflecting that many passive margins now overly slabs sinking in the lower mantle. Our best-fit model results in up to 500 ±150 m of total dynamic subsidence of continental interiors while along passive margins the maximum predicted dynamic topographic change over 140 million years is about 350 ±150 m of subsidence. Models with plumes exhibit clusters of transient passive margin uplift of about 200 ±200m. The good overall match between predicted dynamic topography and geologically mapped paleo-coastlines makes a convincing case that mantle-driven topographic change is a critical component of relative sea level change, and one of the main driving forces generating the observed geometries and timings of large-scale shifts in paleo-coastlines.

Marginal structural model to evaluate the joint effect of socioeconomic exposures on the risk of developing end-stage renal disease in patients with type 1 diabetes: a longitudinal study based on data from the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Study Group.

PubMed

Pazzagli, Laura; Möllsten, Anna; Waernbaum, Ingeborg

2017-08-01

Diabetic nephropathy is a severe complication of type 1 diabetes (T1D) that may lead to renal failure and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) demanding dialysis and transplantation. The etiology of diabetic nephropathy is multifactorial and both genes and environmental and life style-related factors are involved. In this study, we investigate the effect of the socioeconomic exposures, unemployment and receiving income support, on the development of ESRD in T1D patients, using a marginal structural model (MSM) in comparison with standard logistic regression models. The study is based on the Swedish Childhood Diabetes Register which in 1977 started to register patients developing T1D before 15 years of age. In the analyses, we include patients born between 1965 and 1979, developing diabetes between 1977 and 1994, and followed until 2013 (n = 4034). A MSM was fitted to adjust for both baseline and time-varying confounders. The main results of the analysis indicate that being unemployed for more than 1 year and receiving income support are risk factors for the development of ESRD. Multiple exposures over time to these risk factors increase the risk associated with the disease. Using a MSM is an advanced method well suited to investigate the effect of exposures on the risk of complications of a chronic disease with longitudinal data. The results show that socioeconomic disadvantage increases the risk of developing ESRD in patients with T1D. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Joint scale-change models for recurrent events and failure time.

PubMed

Xu, Gongjun; Chiou, Sy Han; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Wang, Mei-Cheng; Yan, Jun

2017-01-01

Recurrent event data arise frequently in various fields such as biomedical sciences, public health, engineering, and social sciences. In many instances, the observation of the recurrent event process can be stopped by the occurrence of a correlated failure event, such as treatment failure and death. In this article, we propose a joint scale-change model for the recurrent event process and the failure time, where a shared frailty variable is used to model the association between the two types of outcomes. In contrast to the popular Cox-type joint modeling approaches, the regression parameters in the proposed joint scale-change model have marginal interpretations. The proposed approach is robust in the sense that no parametric assumption is imposed on the distribution of the unobserved frailty and that we do not need the strong Poisson-type assumption for the recurrent event process. We establish consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed semiparametric estimators under suitable regularity conditions. To estimate the corresponding variances of the estimators, we develop a computationally efficient resampling-based procedure. Simulation studies and an analysis of hospitalization data from the Danish Psychiatric Central Register illustrate the performance of the proposed method.

Novel Method for Incorporating Model Uncertainties into Gravitational Wave Parameter Estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Christopher J.; Gair, Jonathan R.

2014-12-01

Posterior distributions on parameters computed from experimental data using Bayesian techniques are only as accurate as the models used to construct them. In many applications, these models are incomplete, which both reduces the prospects of detection and leads to a systematic error in the parameter estimates. In the analysis of data from gravitational wave detectors, for example, accurate waveform templates can be computed using numerical methods, but the prohibitive cost of these simulations means this can only be done for a small handful of parameters. In this Letter, a novel method to fold model uncertainties into data analysis is proposed; the waveform uncertainty is analytically marginalized over using with a prior distribution constructed by using Gaussian process regression to interpolate the waveform difference from a small training set of accurate templates. The method is well motivated, easy to implement, and no more computationally expensive than standard techniques. The new method is shown to perform extremely well when applied to a toy problem. While we use the application to gravitational wave data analysis to motivate and illustrate the technique, it can be applied in any context where model uncertainties exist.

Calculating radiotherapy margins based on Bayesian modelling of patient specific random errors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herschtal, A.; te Marvelde, L.; Mengersen, K.; Hosseinifard, Z.; Foroudi, F.; Devereux, T.; Pham, D.; Ball, D.; Greer, P. B.; Pichler, P.; Eade, T.; Kneebone, A.; Bell, L.; Caine, H.; Hindson, B.; Kron, T.

2015-02-01

Collected real-life clinical target volume (CTV) displacement data show that some patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) demonstrate significantly more fraction-to-fraction variability in their displacement (‘random error’) than others. This contrasts with the common assumption made by historical recipes for margin estimation for EBRT, that the random error is constant across patients. In this work we present statistical models of CTV displacements in which random errors are characterised by an inverse gamma (IG) distribution in order to assess the impact of random error variability on CTV-to-PTV margin widths, for eight real world patient cohorts from four institutions, and for different sites of malignancy. We considered a variety of clinical treatment requirements and penumbral widths. The eight cohorts consisted of a total of 874 patients and 27 391 treatment sessions. Compared to a traditional margin recipe that assumes constant random errors across patients, for a typical 4 mm penumbral width, the IG based margin model mandates that in order to satisfy the common clinical requirement that 90% of patients receive at least 95% of prescribed RT dose to the entire CTV, margins be increased by a median of 10% (range over the eight cohorts -19% to +35%). This substantially reduces the proportion of patients for whom margins are too small to satisfy clinical requirements.

The effect of uterine motion and uterine margins on target and normal tissue doses in intensity modulated radiation therapy of cervical cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, J. J.; Weiss, E.; Abayomi, O. K.; Siebers, J. V.; Dogan, N.

2011-05-01

In intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) of cervical cancer, uterine motion can be larger than cervix motion, requiring a larger clinical target volume to planning target volume (CTV-to-PTV) margin around the uterine fundus. This work simulates different motion models and margins to estimate the dosimetric consequences. A virtual study used image sets from ten patients. Plans were created with uniform margins of 1 cm (PTVA) and 2.4 cm (PTVC), and a margin tapering from 2.4 cm at the fundus to 1 cm at the cervix (PTVB). Three inter-fraction motion models (MM) were simulated. In MM1, all structures moved with normally distributed rigid body translations. In MM2, CTV motion was progressively magnified as one moved superiorly from the cervix to the fundus. In MM3, both CTV and normal tissue motion were magnified as in MM2, modeling the scenario where normal tissues move into the void left by the mobile uterus. Plans were evaluated using static and percentile DVHs. For a conventional margin (PTVA), quasi-realistic uterine motion (MM3) reduces fundus dose by about 5 Gy and increases normal tissue volumes receiving 30-50 Gy by ~5%. A tapered CTV-to-PTV margin can restore fundus and CTV doses, but will increase normal tissue volumes receiving 30-50 Gy by a further ~5%.

Prospective Associations between Youth Assets, Neighborhood Characteristics and No-Tobacco Use among Youth: Differences by Gender

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tolma, Eleni L.; Oman, Roy F.; Vesely, Sara K.; Aspy, Cheryl B.; Boeckman, Lindsay

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between youth assets and neighborhood environmental variables and future no-tobacco use among youth; examining differences by gender. Five waves of annual data were collected from 1,111 youth randomly selected to participate in the Youth Asset Study (YAS). A marginal logistic regression model…

Nursing home quality and financial performance: does the racial composition of residents matter?

PubMed

Chisholm, Latarsha; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Laberge, Alex; Lin, Feng-Chang; Hyer, Kathryn

2013-12-01

To examine the effects of the racial composition of residents on nursing homes' financial and quality performance. The study examined Medicare and Medicaid-certified nursing homes across the United States that submitted Medicare cost reports between the years 1999 and 2004 (11,472 average per year). Data were obtained from the Minimum Data Set, the On-Line Survey Certification and Reporting, Medicare Cost Reports, and the Area Resource File. Panel data regression with random intercepts and negative binomial regression were conducted with state and year fixed effects. Financial and quality performance differed between nursing homes with high proportions of black residents and nursing homes with no or medium proportions of black residents. Nursing homes with no black residents had higher revenues and higher operating margins and total profit margins and they exhibited better processes and outcomes than nursing homes with high proportions of black residents. Nursing homes' financial viability and quality of care are influenced by the racial composition of residents. Policy makers should consider initiatives to improve both the financial and quality performance of nursing homes serving predominantly black residents. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis.

PubMed

Zaggia, Luca; Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

2017-01-01

An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3-4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968-2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide.

Fast shoreline erosion induced by ship wakes in a coastal lagoon: Field evidence and remote sensing analysis

PubMed Central

Lorenzetti, Giuliano; Manfé, Giorgia; Scarpa, Gian Marco; Molinaroli, Emanuela; Parnell, Kevin Ellis; Rapaglia, John Paul; Gionta, Maria; Soomere, Tarmo

2017-01-01

An investigation based on in-situ surveys combined with remote sensing and GIS analysis revealed fast shoreline retreat on the side of a major waterway, the Malamocco Marghera Channel, in the Lagoon of Venice, Italy. Monthly and long-term regression rates caused by ship wakes in a reclaimed industrial area were considered. The short-term analysis, based on field surveys carried out between April 2014 and January 2015, revealed that the speed of shoreline regression was insignificantly dependent on the distance from the navigation channel, but was not constant through time. Periods of high water levels due to tidal forcing or storm surges, more common in the winter season, are characterized by faster regression rates. The retreat is a discontinuous process in time and space depending on the morpho-stratigraphy and the vegetation cover of the artificial deposits. A GIS analysis performed with the available imagery shows an average retreat of 3˗4 m/yr in the period between 1974 and 2015. Digitization of historical maps and bathymetric surveys made in April 2015 enabled the construction of two digital terrain models for both past and present situations. The two models have been used to calculate the total volume of sediment lost during the period 1968˗2015 (1.19×106 m3). The results show that in the presence of heavy ship traffic, ship-channel interactions can dominate the morphodynamics of a waterway and its margins. The analysis enables a better understanding of how shallow-water systems react to the human activities in the post-industrial period. An adequate evaluation of the temporal and spatial variation of shoreline position is also crucial for the development of future scenarios and for the sustainable management port traffic worldwide. PMID:29088244

Do marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments? An analysis using Bayesian spatial latent factor and hurdle models.

PubMed

Luan, Hui; Minaker, Leia M; Law, Jane

2016-08-22

Findings of whether marginalized neighbourhoods have less healthy retail food environments (RFE) are mixed across countries, in part because inconsistent approaches have been used to characterize RFE 'healthfulness' and marginalization, and researchers have used non-spatial statistical methods to respond to this ultimately spatial issue. This study uses in-store features to categorize healthy and less healthy food outlets. Bayesian spatial hierarchical models are applied to explore the association between marginalization dimensions and RFE healthfulness (i.e., relative healthy food access that modelled via a probability distribution) at various geographical scales. Marginalization dimensions are derived from a spatial latent factor model. Zero-inflation occurring at the walkable-distance scale is accounted for with a spatial hurdle model. Neighbourhoods with higher residential instability, material deprivation, and population density are more likely to have access to healthy food outlets within a walkable distance from a binary 'have' or 'not have' access perspective. At the walkable distance scale however, materially deprived neighbourhoods are found to have less healthy RFE (lower relative healthy food access). Food intervention programs should be developed for striking the balance between healthy and less healthy food access in the study region as well as improving opportunities for residents to buy and consume foods consistent with dietary recommendations.

Experimental validation of the van Herk margin formula for lung radiation therapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ecclestone, Gillian; Heath, Emily; Bissonnette, Jean-Pierre

2013-11-15

Purpose: To validate the van Herk margin formula for lung radiation therapy using realistic dose calculation algorithms and respiratory motion modeling. The robustness of the margin formula against variations in lesion size, peak-to-peak motion amplitude, tissue density, treatment technique, and plan conformity was assessed, along with the margin formula assumption of a homogeneous dose distribution with perfect plan conformity.Methods: 3DCRT and IMRT lung treatment plans were generated within the ORBIT treatment planning platform (RaySearch Laboratories, Sweden) on 4DCT datasets of virtual phantoms. Random and systematic respiratory motion induced errors were simulated using deformable registration and dose accumulation tools available withinmore » ORBIT for simulated cases of varying lesion sizes, peak-to-peak motion amplitudes, tissue densities, and plan conformities. A detailed comparison between the margin formula dose profile model, the planned dose profiles, and penumbra widths was also conducted to test the assumptions of the margin formula. Finally, a correction to account for imperfect plan conformity was tested as well as a novel application of the margin formula that accounts for the patient-specific motion trajectory.Results: The van Herk margin formula ensured full clinical target volume coverage for all 3DCRT and IMRT plans of all conformities with the exception of small lesions in soft tissue. No dosimetric trends with respect to plan technique or lesion size were observed for the systematic and random error simulations. However, accumulated plans showed that plan conformity decreased with increasing tumor motion amplitude. When comparing dose profiles assumed in the margin formula model to the treatment plans, discrepancies in the low dose regions were observed for the random and systematic error simulations. However, the margin formula respected, in all experiments, the 95% dose coverage required for planning target volume (PTV) margin derivation, as defined by the ICRU; thus, suitable PTV margins were estimated. The penumbra widths calculated in lung tissue for each plan were found to be very similar to the 6.4 mm value assumed by the margin formula model. The plan conformity correction yielded inconsistent results which were largely affected by image and dose grid resolution while the trajectory modified PTV plans yielded a dosimetric benefit over the standard internal target volumes approach with up to a 5% decrease in the V20 value.Conclusions: The margin formula showed to be robust against variations in tumor size and motion, treatment technique, plan conformity, as well as low tissue density. This was validated by maintaining coverage of all of the derived PTVs by 95% dose level, as required by the formal definition of the PTV. However, the assumption of perfect plan conformity in the margin formula derivation yields conservative margin estimation. Future modifications to the margin formula will require a correction for plan conformity. Plan conformity can also be improved by using the proposed trajectory modified PTV planning approach. This proves especially beneficial for tumors with a large anterior–posterior component of respiratory motion.« less

Item Information in the Rasch Model. Project Psychometric Aspects of Item Banking No. 34. Research Report 88-7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Engelen, Ron J. H.; And Others

Fisher's information measure for the item difficulty parameter in the Rasch model and its marginal and conditional formulations are investigated. It is shown that expected item information in the unconditional model equals information in the marginal model, provided the assumption of sampling examinees from an ability distribution is made. For the…

Marginal revenue and length of stay in inpatient psychiatry.

PubMed

Pletscher, Mark

2016-09-01

This study examines the changes in marginal revenue during psychiatric inpatient stays in a large Swiss psychiatric hospital after the introduction of a mixed reimbursement system with tariff rates that vary over length of stay. A discrete time duration model with a difference-in-difference specification and time-varying coefficients is estimated to assess variations in policy effects over length of stay. Among patients whose costs are fully reimbursed by the mixed scheme, the model demonstrates a significant effect of marginal revenue on length of stay. No significant policy effects are found among patients for whom only health insurance rates are delivered as mixed tariffs and government contributions are made retrospectively. The results indicate that marginal revenue can affect length of stay in inpatient psychiatry facilities, but that the reduction in marginal revenue must be sufficiently large.

A real-time prediction model for post-irradiation malignant cervical lymph nodes.

PubMed

Lo, W-C; Cheng, P-W; Shueng, P-W; Hsieh, C-H; Chang, Y-L; Liao, L-J

2018-04-01

To establish a real-time predictive scoring model based on sonographic characteristics for identifying malignant cervical lymph nodes (LNs) in cancer patients after neck irradiation. One-hundred forty-four irradiation-treated patients underwent ultrasonography and ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspirations (USgFNAs), and the resultant data were used to construct a real-time and computerised predictive scoring model. This scoring system was further compared with our previously proposed prediction model. A predictive scoring model, 1.35 × (L axis) + 2.03 × (S axis) + 2.27 × (margin) + 1.48 × (echogenic hilum) + 3.7, was generated by stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis. Neck LNs were considered to be malignant when the score was ≥ 7, corresponding to a sensitivity of 85.5%, specificity of 79.4%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 82.3%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 83.1%, and overall accuracy of 82.6%. When this new model and the original model were compared, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic) were 0.89 and 0.81, respectively (P < .05). A real-time sonographic predictive scoring model was constructed to provide prompt and reliable guidance for USgFNA biopsies to manage cervical LNs after neck irradiation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A multiloop generalization of the circle criterion for stability margin analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safonov, M. G.; Athans, M.

1979-01-01

In order to provide a theoretical tool suited for characterizing the stability margins of multiloop feedback systems, multiloop input-output stability results generalizing the circle stability criterion are considered. Generalized conic sectors with 'centers' and 'radii' determined by linear dynamical operators are employed to specify the stability margins as a frequency dependent convex set of modeling errors (including nonlinearities, gain variations and phase variations) which the system must be able to tolerate in each feedback loop without instability. The resulting stability criterion gives sufficient conditions for closed loop stability in the presence of frequency dependent modeling errors, even when the modeling errors occur simultaneously in all loops. The stability conditions yield an easily interpreted scalar measure of the amount by which a multiloop system exceeds, or falls short of, its stability margin specifications.

Corneal inflammatory events with daily silicone hydrogel lens wear.

PubMed

Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta; Jiang, Ying; Raghupathy, Sangeetha; Bielefeld, Roger A; Garvey, Matthew T; Jacobs, Michael R; Kern, Jami; Debanne, Sara M

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the probability and risk factors for developing a corneal inflammatory event (CIE) during daily wear of lotrafilcon A silicone hydrogel contact lenses. Eligible participants (n = 218) were fit with lotrafilcon A lenses for daily wear and followed up for 12 months. Participants were randomized to either a polyhexamethylene biguanide-preserved multipurpose solution or a one-step peroxide disinfection system. The main exposures of interest were bacterial contamination of lenses, cases, lid margins, and ocular surface. Kaplan-Meier (KM) plots were used to estimate the cumulative unadjusted probability of remaining free from a CIE, and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to model the hazard of experiencing a CIE. The KM unadjusted cumulative probability of remaining free from a CIE for both lens care groups combined was 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 88.1 to 96.5%). There was one participant with microbial keratitis, five participants with asymptomatic infiltrates, and seven participants with contact lens peripheral ulcers, providing KM survival estimates of 92.8% (95% CI, 88.6 to 96.9%) and 98.1% (95% CI, 95.8 to 100.0%) for remaining free from noninfectious and symptomatic CIEs, respectively. The presence of substantial (>100 colony-forming units) coagulase-negative staphylococci bioburden on lid margins was associated with about a five-fold increased risk for the development of a CIE (p = 0.04). The probability of experiencing a CIE during daily wear of lotrafilcon A contact lenses is low, and symptomatic CIEs are rare. Patient factors, such as high levels of bacterial bioburden on lid margins, contribute to the development of noninfectious CIEs during daily wear of silicone hydrogel lenses.

Method for the simulation of blood platelet shape and its evolution during activation

PubMed Central

Muliukov, Artem R.; Litvinenko, Alena L.; Nekrasov, Vyacheslav M.; Chernyshev, Andrei V.; Maltsev, Valeri P.

2018-01-01

We present a simple physically based quantitative model of blood platelet shape and its evolution during agonist-induced activation. The model is based on the consideration of two major cytoskeletal elements: the marginal band of microtubules and the submembrane cortex. Mathematically, we consider the problem of minimization of surface area constrained to confine the marginal band and a certain cellular volume. For resting platelets, the marginal band appears as a peripheral ring, allowing for the analytical solution of the minimization problem. Upon activation, the marginal band coils out of plane and forms 3D convoluted structure. We show that its shape is well approximated by an overcurved circle, a mathematical concept of closed curve with constant excessive curvature. Possible mechanisms leading to such marginal band coiling are discussed, resulting in simple parametric expression for the marginal band shape during platelet activation. The excessive curvature of marginal band is a convenient state variable which tracks the progress of activation. The cell surface is determined using numerical optimization. The shapes are strictly mathematically defined by only three parameters and show good agreement with literature data. They can be utilized in simulation of platelets interaction with different physical fields, e.g. for the description of hydrodynamic and mechanical properties of platelets, leading to better understanding of platelets margination and adhesion and thrombus formation in blood flow. It would also facilitate precise characterization of platelets in clinical diagnosis, where a novel optical model is needed for the correct solution of inverse light-scattering problem. PMID:29518073

A novel method to quantify and compare anatomical shape: application in cervix cancer radiotherapy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oh, Seungjong; Jaffray, David; Cho, Young-Bin

2014-06-01

Adaptive radiation therapy (ART) had been proposed to restore dosimetric deficiencies during treatment delivery. In this paper, we developed a technique of Geometric reLocation for analyzing anatomical OBjects' Evolution (GLOBE) for a numerical model of tumor evolution under radiation therapy and characterized geometric changes of the target using GLOBE. A total of 174 clinical target volumes (CTVs) obtained from 32 cervical cancer patients were analyzed. GLOBE consists of three main steps; step (1) deforming a 3D surface object to a sphere by parametric active contour (PAC), step (2) sampling a deformed PAC on 642 nodes of icosahedron geodesic dome for reference frame, and step (3) unfolding 3D data to 2D plane for convenient visualization and analysis. The performance was evaluated with respect to (1) convergence of deformation (iteration number and computation time) and (2) accuracy of deformation (residual deformation). Based on deformation vectors from planning CTV to weekly CTVs, target specific (TS) margins were calculated on each sampled node of GLOBE and the systematic (Σ) and random (σ) variations of the vectors were calculated. Population based anisotropic (PBA) margins were generated using van Herk's margin recipe. GLOBE successfully modeled 152 CTVs from 28 patients. Fast convergence was observed for most cases (137/152) with the iteration number of 65 ± 74 (average ± STD) and the computation time of 13.7 ± 18.6 min. Residual deformation of PAC was 0.9 ± 0.7 mm and more than 97% was less than 3 mm. Margin analysis showed random nature of TS-margin. As a consequence, PBA-margins perform similarly to ISO-margins. For example, PBA-margins for 90% patients' coverage with 95% dose level is close to 13 mm ISO-margins in the aspect of target coverage and OAR sparing. GLOBE demonstrates a systematic analysis of tumor motion and deformation of patients with cervix cancer during radiation therapy and numerical modeling of PBA-margin on 642 locations of CTV surface.

The continent-ocean transition at the mid-northern margin of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Jinwei; Wu, Shiguo; McIntosh, Kirk; Mi, Lijun; Yao, Bochu; Chen, Zeman; Jia, Liankai

2015-07-01

The northern margin of the South China Sea (SCS) has particular structural and stratigraphic characteristics that are somewhat different from those described in typical passive margin models. The differences are attributable to poly-phase tectonic movements and magmatic activity resulting from the interaction among the Eurasian, Philippine Sea and Indo-Australian plates. Based on several crustal-scale multi-channel seismic reflection profiles and satellite gravity data across the northern SCS margin, this paper analyzes the structures, volcanoes and deep crust of the continent-ocean transition zone (COT) at the mid-northern margin of the SCS to study the patterns and model of extension there. The results indicate that the COT is limited landward by basin-bounding faults near Baiyun sag and is bounded by seaward-dipping normal faults near the oceanic basin in our seismic lines. The shallow anatomy of the COT is characterized by rift depression, structural highs with igneous rock and/or a volcanic zone or a zone of tilted fault blocks at the distal edge. Gravity modeling revealed that a high velocity layer (HVL) with a 0.8-6-km thickness is frequently present in the slope below the lower crust. Our study shows that the HVL is only located in the eastern portion of the northern SCS margin based on the available geophysical data. We infer from this that the presence of an HVL is not required in the COT at the northern SCS margin. The magmatic intrusions and HVL may be related to partial melting caused by the decompression of a passive, upwelling asthenosphere, which resulted primarily in post-rifting underplating and magmatic emplacement or modification of the crust. Based on this study, we propose that an intermediate mode of rifting was active in the mid-northern margin of the SCS with characteristics that are closer to those of the magma-poor margins than those of volcanic margins.

Keeping the band together: evidence for false boundary disruptive coloration in a butterfly.

PubMed

Seymoure, B M; Aiello, A

2015-09-01

There is a recent surge of evidence supporting disruptive coloration, in which patterns break up the animal's outline through false edges or boundaries, increasing survival in animals by reducing predator detection and/or preventing recognition. Although research has demonstrated that false edges are successful for reducing predation of prey, research into the role of internal false boundaries (i.e. stripes and bands) in reducing predation remains warranted. Many animals have stripes and bands that may function disruptively. Here, we test the possible disruptive function of wing band patterning in a butterfly, Anartia fatima, using artificial paper and plasticine models in Panama. We manipulated the band so that one model type had the band shifted to the wing margin (nondisruptive treatment) and another model had a discontinuous band located on the wing margin (discontinuous edge treatment). We kept the natural wing pattern to represent the false boundary treatment. Across all treatment groups, we standardized the area of colour and used avian visual models to confirm a match between manipulated and natural wing colours. False boundary models had higher survival than either the discontinuous edge model or the nondisruptive model. There was no survival difference between the discontinuous edge model and the nondisruptive model. Our results demonstrate the importance of wing bands in reducing predation on butterflies and show that markings set in from the wing margin can reduce predation more effectively than marginal bands and discontinuous marginal patterns. This study demonstrates an adaptive benefit of having stripes and bands. © 2015 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

Determination of safety margins for whole blood concentrations of alcohol and nineteen drugs in driving under the influence cases.

PubMed

Kristoffersen, Lena; Strand, Dag Helge; Liane, Veronica Horpestad; Vindenes, Vigdis; Tvete, Ingunn Fride; Aldrin, Magne

2016-02-01

Legislative limits for driving under the influence of 20 non-alcohol drugs were introduced in Norway in February 2012. Per se limits corresponding to blood alcohol concentrations (BAC) of 0.2g/kg were established for 20 psychoactive drugs, and limits for graded sanctions corresponding to BACs of 0.5 and 1.2g/kg were determined for 13 of these drugs. This new legislation made it possible for the courts to make sentences based on the analytical results, similar to the situation for alcohol. To ensure that the reported concentration is as least as high as the true concentration, with a 99% safety level, safety margins had to be calculated for each of the substances. Diazepam, tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and alcohol were used as model substances to establish a new model for estimating the safety margins. The model was compared with a previous used model established several years ago, by a similar yet much simpler model, and they were found to be in agreement. The measurement uncertainties depend on the standard batch used, the work list and the measurements' replicate. A Bayesian modelling approach was used to determine the parameters in the model, using a dataset of 4700 diazepam positive specimens and 5400 THC positive specimens. Different safety margins were considered for low and high concentration levels of diazepam (≤2μM (0.6mg/L) and >2μM) and THC (≤0.01μM (0.003mg/L) and >0.01μM). The safety margins were for diazepam 19.5% (≤2μM) and 34% (>2μM), for THC 19.5% (≤0.01μM) and 24.9% (>0.01μM). Concentration dependent safety margins for BAC were based on a dataset of 29500 alcohol positive specimens, and were in the range 10.4% (0.1g/kg) to 4.0% (4.0g/kg) at a 99% safety level. A simplified approach was used to establish safety margins for the compounds amphetamine, MDMA, methamphetamine, alprazolam, phenazepam, flunitrazepam, clonazepam, nitrazepam, oxazepam, buprenorphine, GHB, methadone, ketamine, cocaine, morphine, zolpidem and zopiclone. The safety margins for these drugs were in the range 34-41%. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wavelet Filtering to Reduce Conservatism in Aeroservoelastic Robust Stability Margins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brenner, Marty; Lind, Rick

1998-01-01

Wavelet analysis for filtering and system identification was used to improve the estimation of aeroservoelastic stability margins. The conservatism of the robust stability margins was reduced with parametric and nonparametric time-frequency analysis of flight data in the model validation process. Nonparametric wavelet processing of data was used to reduce the effects of external desirableness and unmodeled dynamics. Parametric estimates of modal stability were also extracted using the wavelet transform. Computation of robust stability margins for stability boundary prediction depends on uncertainty descriptions derived from the data for model validation. F-18 high Alpha Research Vehicle aeroservoelastic flight test data demonstrated improved robust stability prediction by extension of the stability boundary beyond the flight regime.

A Worst-Case Approach for On-Line Flutter Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lind, Rick C.; Brenner, Martin J.

1998-01-01

Worst-case flutter margins may be computed for a linear model with respect to a set of uncertainty operators using the structured singular value. This paper considers an on-line implementation to compute these robust margins in a flight test program. Uncertainty descriptions are updated at test points to account for unmodeled time-varying dynamics of the airplane by ensuring the robust model is not invalidated by measured flight data. Robust margins computed with respect to this uncertainty remain conservative to the changing dynamics throughout the flight. A simulation clearly demonstrates this method can improve the efficiency of flight testing by accurately predicting the flutter margin to improve safety while reducing the necessary flight time.

Modeling long-term human activeness using recurrent neural networks for biometric data.

PubMed

Kim, Zae Myung; Oh, Hyungrai; Kim, Han-Gyu; Lim, Chae-Gyun; Oh, Kyo-Joong; Choi, Ho-Jin

2017-05-18

With the invention of fitness trackers, it has been possible to continuously monitor a user's biometric data such as heart rates, number of footsteps taken, and amount of calories burned. This paper names the time series of these three types of biometric data, the user's "activeness", and investigates the feasibility in modeling and predicting the long-term activeness of the user. The dataset used in this study consisted of several months of biometric time-series data gathered by seven users independently. Four recurrent neural network (RNN) architectures-as well as a deep neural network and a simple regression model-were proposed to investigate the performance on predicting the activeness of the user under various length-related hyper-parameter settings. In addition, the learned model was tested to predict the time period when the user's activeness falls below a certain threshold. A preliminary experimental result shows that each type of activeness data exhibited a short-term autocorrelation; and among the three types of data, the consumed calories and the number of footsteps were positively correlated, while the heart rate data showed almost no correlation with neither of them. It is probably due to this characteristic of the dataset that although the RNN models produced the best results on modeling the user's activeness, the difference was marginal; and other baseline models, especially the linear regression model, performed quite admirably as well. Further experimental results show that it is feasible to predict a user's future activeness with precision, for example, a trained RNN model could predict-with the precision of 84%-when the user would be less active within the next hour given the latest 15 min of his activeness data. This paper defines and investigates the notion of a user's "activeness", and shows that forecasting the long-term activeness of the user is indeed possible. Such information can be utilized by a health-related application to proactively recommend suitable events or services to the user.

High Resolution Mapping of Soil Properties Using Remote Sensing Variables in South-Western Burkina Faso: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression Models.

PubMed

Forkuor, Gerald; Hounkpatin, Ozias K L; Welp, Gerhard; Thiel, Michael

2017-01-01

Accurate and detailed spatial soil information is essential for environmental modelling, risk assessment and decision making. The use of Remote Sensing data as secondary sources of information in digital soil mapping has been found to be cost effective and less time consuming compared to traditional soil mapping approaches. But the potentials of Remote Sensing data in improving knowledge of local scale soil information in West Africa have not been fully explored. This study investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (RapidEye and Landsat), terrain/climatic data and laboratory analysed soil samples to map the spatial distribution of six soil properties-sand, silt, clay, cation exchange capacity (CEC), soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen-in a 580 km2 agricultural watershed in south-western Burkina Faso. Four statistical prediction models-multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine (SVM), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB)-were tested and compared. Internal validation was conducted by cross validation while the predictions were validated against an independent set of soil samples considering the modelling area and an extrapolation area. Model performance statistics revealed that the machine learning techniques performed marginally better than the MLR, with the RFR providing in most cases the highest accuracy. The inability of MLR to handle non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables was found to be a limitation in accurately predicting soil properties at unsampled locations. Satellite data acquired during ploughing or early crop development stages (e.g. May, June) were found to be the most important spectral predictors while elevation, temperature and precipitation came up as prominent terrain/climatic variables in predicting soil properties. The results further showed that shortwave infrared and near infrared channels of Landsat8 as well as soil specific indices of redness, coloration and saturation were prominent predictors in digital soil mapping. Considering the increased availability of freely available Remote Sensing data (e.g. Landsat, SRTM, Sentinels), soil information at local and regional scales in data poor regions such as West Africa can be improved with relatively little financial and human resources.

Evaluating the spatial variation of total mercury in young-of-year yellow perch (Perca flavescens), surface water and upland soil for watershed-lake systems within the southern Boreal Shield

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gabriel, M.C.; Kolka, R.; Wickman, T.; Nater, E.; Woodruff, Laurel G.

2009-01-01

The primary objective of this research is to investigate relationships between mercury in upland soil, lake water and fish tissue and explore the cause for the observed spatial variation of THg in age one yellow perch (Perca flavescens) for ten lakes within the Superior National Forest. Spatial relationships between yellow perch THg tissue concentration and a total of 45 watershed and water chemistry parameters were evaluated for two separate years: 2005 and 2006. Results show agreement with other studies where watershed area, lake water pH, nutrient levels (specifically dissolved NO3−-N) and dissolved iron are important factors controlling and/or predicting fish THg level. Exceeding all was the strong dependence of yellow perch THg level on soil A-horizon THg and, in particular, soil O-horizon THg concentrations (Spearman ρ = 0.81). Soil B-horizon THg concentration was significantly correlated (Pearson r = 0.75) with lake water THg concentration. Lakes surrounded by a greater percentage of shrub wetlands (peatlands) had higher fish tissue THg levels, thus it is highly possible that these wetlands are main locations for mercury methylation. Stepwise regression was used to develop empirical models for the purpose of predicting the spatial variation in yellow perch THg over the studied region. The 2005 regression model demonstrates it is possible to obtain good prediction (up to 60% variance description) of resident yellow perch THg level using upland soil O-horizon THg as the only independent variable. The 2006 model shows even greater prediction (r2 = 0.73, with an overall 10 ng/g [tissue, wet weight] margin of error), using lake water dissolved iron and watershed area as the only model independent variables. The developed regression models in this study can help with interpreting THg concentrations in low trophic level fish species for untested lakes of the greater Superior National Forest and surrounding Boreal ecosystem.

Management of primary and metastasized melanoma in Germany in the time period 1976-2005: an analysis of the Central Malignant Melanoma Registry of the German Dermatological Society.

PubMed

Schwager, Silke S; Leiter, Ulrike; Buettner, Petra G; Voit, Christiane; Marsch, Wolfgang; Gutzmer, Ralf; Näher, Helmut; Gollnick, Harald; Bröcker, Eva Bettina; Garbe, Claus

2008-04-01

This study analysed the changes of excision margins in correlation with tumour thickness as recorded over the last three decades in Germany. The study also evaluated surgical management in different geographical regions and treatment options for metastasized melanoma. A total of 42 625 patients with invasive primary cutaneous melanoma, recorded by the German Central Malignant Melanoma Registry between 1976 and 2005 were included. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to investigate time trends of excision margins adjusted for tumour thickness. Excision margins of 5.0 cm were widely used in the late 1970s but since then have been replaced by smaller margins that are dependent on tumour thickness. In the case of primary melanoma, one-step surgery dominated until 1985 and was mostly replaced by two-step excisions since the early 1990s. In eastern Germany, one-step management remained common until the late 1990s. During the last three decades loco-regional metastases were predominantly treated by surgery (up to 80%), whereas systemic therapy decreased. The primary treatment of distant metastases has consistently been systemic chemotherapy. This descriptive retrospective study revealed a significant decrease in excision margins to a maximum of 2.00 cm. A significant trend towards two-step excisions in primary cutaneous melanoma was observed throughout Germany. Management of metastasized melanoma showed a tendency towards surgical procedures in limited disease and an ongoing trend to systemic treatment in advanced disease.

Analysis of Friendship Network and its Role in Explaining Obesity

PubMed Central

Marathe, Achla; Pan, Zhengzheng; Apolloni, Andrea

2013-01-01

We employ Add Health data to show that friendship networks, constructed from mutual friendship nominations, are important in building weight perception, setting weight goals and measuring social marginalization among adolescents and young adults. We study the relationship between individuals’ perceived weight status, actual weight status, weight status relative to friends’ weight status and weight goals. This analysis helps us understand how individual weight perceptions might be formed, what these perceptions do to the weight goals, and how does friends’ relative weight affect weight perception and weight goals. Combining this information with individuals’ friendship network helps determine the influence of social relationships on weight related variables. Multinomial logistic regression results indicate that relative status is indeed a significant predictor of perceived status, and perceived status is a significant predictor of weight goals. We also address the issue of causality between actual weight status and social marginalization (as measured by the number of friends) and show that obesity precedes social marginalization in time rather than the other way around. This lends credence to the hypothesis that obesity leads to social marginalization not vice versa. Attributes of friendship network can provide new insights into effective interventions for combating obesity since adolescent friendships provide an important social context for weight related behaviors. PMID:25328818

Longitudinal changes in tooth/single-implant relationship and bone topography: an 8-year retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Chang, Moontaek; Wennström, Jan L

2012-06-01

To evaluate longitudinal changes in tooth/implant relationship and bone topography at single implants with a microthreaded, conical marginal portion (Astra Tech ST® implants, Astra Tech AB, Mölndal, Sweden). Thirty-one subjects with single implant-supported restorations in the esthetic zone were included. Radiographs obtained at crown installation and 1, 5, and 8 years of follow-up were analyzed with regard to changes in (1) bone level at the implant and adjacent teeth and (2) vertical position of adjacent teeth relative to the single implant. The mean marginal bone loss amounted to 0.1 mm at both implants and adjacent teeth during the 8 years of follow-up. Regression analysis failed to identify significant explanatory factors for observed variance in bone level change at the adjacent tooth surfaces. Vertical change in position of the teeth relative to the implants was more frequent and significantly greater in incisor compared with premolar tooth region but not associated with gender or age. The marginal bone level at teeth adjacent to single implants with a microthreaded conical marginal part was not influenced by horizontal and vertical tooth-implant distances. Continuous eruption of adjacent teeth may result in infraocclusal positioning of a single-implant restoration. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mortality reductions from marginal increases in public spending on health.

PubMed

Edney, L C; Haji Ali Afzali, H; Cheng, T C; Karnon, J

2018-04-27

There is limited empirical evidence of the nature of any relationship between health spending and health outcomes in Australia. We address this by estimating the elasticity of health outcomes with respect to public healthcare spending using an instrumental variable (IV) approach to account for endogeneity of healthcare spending to health outcomes. Results suggest that, based on the conditional mean, a 1% increase in public health spending was associated with a 2.2% (p < 0.05) reduction in the number of standardised Years of Life Lost (YLL). Sensitivity analyses and robustness checks supported this conclusion. Further exploration using IV quantile regression indicated that marginal returns on public health spending were significantly greater for areas with poorer health outcomes compared to areas with better health outcomes. On average, marginal increases in public health spending reduce YLL, but areas with poorer health outcomes have the greatest potential to benefit from the same marginal increase in public health spending compared to areas with better health outcomes. Understanding the relationship between health spending and outcomes and how this differs according to baseline health outcomes can help meet dual policy objectives to improve the productivity of the healthcare system and reduce inequity. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sequential Monte Carlo tracking of the marginal artery by multiple cue fusion and random forest regression.

PubMed

Cherry, Kevin M; Peplinski, Brandon; Kim, Lauren; Wang, Shijun; Lu, Le; Zhang, Weidong; Liu, Jianfei; Wei, Zhuoshi; Summers, Ronald M

2015-01-01

Given the potential importance of marginal artery localization in automated registration in computed tomography colonography (CTC), we have devised a semi-automated method of marginal vessel detection employing sequential Monte Carlo tracking (also known as particle filtering tracking) by multiple cue fusion based on intensity, vesselness, organ detection, and minimum spanning tree information for poorly enhanced vessel segments. We then employed a random forest algorithm for intelligent cue fusion and decision making which achieved high sensitivity and robustness. After applying a vessel pruning procedure to the tracking results, we achieved statistically significantly improved precision compared to a baseline Hessian detection method (2.7% versus 75.2%, p<0.001). This method also showed statistically significantly improved recall rate compared to a 2-cue baseline method using fewer vessel cues (30.7% versus 67.7%, p<0.001). These results demonstrate that marginal artery localization on CTC is feasible by combining a discriminative classifier (i.e., random forest) with a sequential Monte Carlo tracking mechanism. In so doing, we present the effective application of an anatomical probability map to vessel pruning as well as a supplementary spatial coordinate system for colonic segmentation and registration when this task has been confounded by colon lumen collapse. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Economic value of big game habitat production from natural and prescribed fire

Treesearch

Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John B. Loomis; Dana Griffin; Elen Wu; Daniel McCollum; Jane McKeever; Diane Freeman

2003-01-01

A macro time-series model and a micro GIS model were used to estimate a production function relating deer harvest response to prescribed fire, holding constant other environmental variables. The macro time-series model showed a marginal increase in deer harvested of 33 for an increase of 1,100 acres of prescribed burn. The marginal deer increase for the micro GIS model...

Duality, marginal perturbations, and gauging

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henningson, M.; Nappi, C.R.

1993-07-15

We study duality transformations for two-dimensional [sigma] models with Abelian chiral isometries and prove that generic such transformations are equivalent to integrated marginal perturbations by bilinears in the chiral currents, thus confirming a recent conjecture by Hassan and Sen formulated in the context of Wess-Zumino-Witten models. Specific duality transformations instead give rise to coset models plus free bosons.

Recovery of Graded Response Model Parameters: A Comparison of Marginal Maximum Likelihood and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kieftenbeld, Vincent; Natesan, Prathiba

2012-01-01

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods enable a fully Bayesian approach to parameter estimation of item response models. In this simulation study, the authors compared the recovery of graded response model parameters using marginal maximum likelihood (MML) and Gibbs sampling (MCMC) under various latent trait distributions, test lengths, and…

Influence of abutment screw preload on stress distribution in marginal bone.

PubMed

Khraisat, Ameen

2012-01-01

Changes in an implant assembly after abutment connection might possibly cause deformation in the implant/abutment joint and even in the marginal bone. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of abutment screw preload through the implant collar on marginal bone stress without external load application. Models of three implant parts made of titanium (implant, abutment, and abutment screw) and cortical bone were built and positioned with computer-aided design software. Meshing and generation of boundary conditions, loads, and interactions were performed. Each part was meshed independently. The sole load applied to the model was a torque of 32 Ncm on the abutment screw about its axis of rotation. The implant collar was deformed axially after the screw was tightened (3 μm). This deformation resulted in 60 MPa of stress in the marginal bone. Moreover, pressure on the marginal bone in a radial direction was observed. It can be concluded that, without any external load application, abutment screw preload exerts stresses on the implant collar and the marginal bone. These findings should help guide the development of new implant/abutment joint designs that exert less stress on the marginal bone.

Niche harmony search algorithm for detecting complex disease associated high-order SNP combinations.

PubMed

Tuo, Shouheng; Zhang, Junying; Yuan, Xiguo; He, Zongzhen; Liu, Yajun; Liu, Zhaowen

2017-09-14

Genome-wide association study is especially challenging in detecting high-order disease-causing models due to model diversity, possible low or even no marginal effect of the model, and extraordinary search and computations. In this paper, we propose a niche harmony search algorithm where joint entropy is utilized as a heuristic factor to guide the search for low or no marginal effect model, and two computationally lightweight scores are selected to evaluate and adapt to diverse of disease models. In order to obtain all possible suspected pathogenic models, niche technique merges with HS, which serves as a taboo region to avoid HS trapping into local search. From the resultant set of candidate SNP-combinations, we use G-test statistic for testing true positives. Experiments were performed on twenty typical simulation datasets in which 12 models are with marginal effect and eight ones are with no marginal effect. Our results indicate that the proposed algorithm has very high detection power for searching suspected disease models in the first stage and it is superior to some typical existing approaches in both detection power and CPU runtime for all these datasets. Application to age-related macular degeneration (AMD) demonstrates our method is promising in detecting high-order disease-causing models.

Submarine fans: Characteristics, models, classification, and reservoir potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shanmugam, G.; Moiola, R. J.

1988-02-01

Submarine-fan sequences are important hydrocarbon reservoirs throughout the world. Submarine-fan sequences may be interpreted from bed-thickness trends, turbidite facies associations, log motifs, and seismic-reflection profiles. Turbidites occurring predominantly in channels and lobes (or sheet sands) constitute the major portion of submarine-fan sequences. Thinning- and thickening-upward trends are suggestive of channel and lobe deposition, respectively. Mounded seismic reflections are commonly indicative of lower-fan depositional lobes. Fan models are discussed in terms of modern and ancient fans, attached and detached lobes, highly efficient and poorly efficient systems, and transverse and longitudinal fans. In general, depositional lobes are considered to be attached to feeder channels. Submarine fans can be classified into four types based on their tectonic settings: (1) immature passive-margin fans (North Sea type); (2) mature passive-margin fans (Atlantic type); (3) active-margin fans (Pacific type); and (4) mixed-setting fans. Immature passive-margin fans (e.g., Balder, North Sea), and active-margin fans (e.g., Navy, Pacific Ocean) are usually small, sand-rich, and possess well developed lobes. Mature passive-margin fans (e.g., Amazon, Atlantic Ocean) are large, mud-rich, and do not develop typical lobes. However, sheet sands are common in the lower-fan regions of mature passive-margin fans. Mixed-setting fans display characteristics of either Atlantic type (e.g., Bengal, Bay of Bengal), or Pacific type (Orinoco, Caribbean), or both. Conventional channel-lobe models may not be applicable to fans associated with mature passive margins. Submarine fans develop primarily during periods of low sea level on both active- and passive-margin settings. Consequently, hydrocarbon-bearing fan sequences are associated generally with global lowstands of sea level. Channel-fill sandstones in most tectonic settings are potential reservoirs. Lobes exhibit the most favorable reservoir quality in terms of sand content, lateral continuity, and porosity development. Lower-fan sheet sands may also make good reservoirs. Quartz-rich sandstones of mature passive-margin fans are most likely to preserve depositional porosity, whereas lithic sandstones of active-margin fans may not.

Precessional control of Sr ratios in marginal basins during the Messinian Salinity Crisis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topper, R. P. M.; Lugli, S.; Manzi, V.; Roveri, M.; Meijer, P. Th.

2014-05-01

Based on 87Sr/86Sr data of the Primary Lower Gypsum (PLG) deposits in the Vena del Gesso basin—a marginal basin of the Mediterranean during the Messinian Salinity Crisis—a correlation between 87Sr/86Sr values and precessional forcing has recently been proposed but not yet confirmed. In this study, a box model is set up to represent the Miocene Mediterranean deep basin and a connected marginal basin. Measurements of 87Sr/86Sr in the Vena del Gesso and estimated salinity extrema are used to constrain model results. In an extensive analysis with this model, we assess whether coeval 87Sr/86Sr and salinity fluctuations could have been forced by precession-driven changes in the fresh water budget. A comprehensive set of the controlling parameters is examined to assess the conditions under which precession-driven 87Sr/86Sr variations occur and to determine the most likely setting for PLG formation. Model results show that precession-driven 87Sr/86Sr and salinity fluctuations in marginal basins are produced in settings within a large range of marginal basin sizes, riverine strontium characteristics, amplitudes of precessional fresh water budget variation, and average fresh water budgets of both the marginal and deep basin. PLG deposition most likely occurred when the Atlantic-Mediterranean connection was restricted, and the average fresh water budget in the Mediterranean was significantly less negative than at present day. Considering the large range of settings in which salinities and 87Sr/86Sr fluctuate on a precessional timescale, 87Sr/86Sr variations are expected to be a common feature in PLG deposits in marginal basins of the Mediterranean.

Numerical modelling of edge-driven convection during rift-to-drift transition: application to the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fierro, Elisa; Capitanio, Fabio A.; Schettino, Antonio; Morena Salerno, V.

2017-04-01

We use numerical modeling to investigate the coupling of mantle instabilities and surface tectonics along lithospheric steps developing during rifting. We address whether edge driven convection (EDC) beneath rifted continental margins and shear flow during rift-drift transition can play a role in the observed post-rift compressive tectonic evolution of the divergent continental margins along the Red Sea. We run a series of 2D simulations to examine the relationship between the maximum compression and key geometrical parameters of the step beneath continental margins, such as the step height due to lithosphere thickness variation and the width of the margins, and test the effect of rheology varying temperature- and stress-dependent viscosity in the lithosphere and asthenosphere. The development of instabilities is initially illustrated as a function of these parameters, to show the controls on the lithosphere strain distribution and magnitude. We then address the transient evolution of the instabilities to characterize their duration. In an additional suite of models, we address the development of EDC during plate motions, thus accounting for the mantle shearing due to spreading. Our results show an increase of strain with the step height as well as with the margin width up to 200 km. After this value the influence of ridge margin can be neglected. Strain rates are, then, quantified for a range of laboratory-constrained constitutive laws for mantle and lithosphere forming minerals. These models propose a viable mechanism to explain the post-rift tectonic inversion observed along the Arabian continental margin and the episodic ultra-fast sea floor spreading in the central Red Sea, where the role of EDC has been invoked.

Timing and adequate attendance of antenatal care visits among women in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Yaya, Sanni; Bishwajit, Ghose; Ekholuenetale, Michael; Shah, Vaibhav; Kadio, Bernard; Udenigwe, Ogochukwu

2017-01-01

Although ANC services are increasingly available to women in low and middle-income countries, their inadequate use persists. This suggests a misalignment between aims of the services and maternal beliefs and circumstances. Owing to the dearth of studies examining the timing and adequacy of content of care, this current study aims to investigate the timing and frequency of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Data was obtained from the nationally representative 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) which used a two-stage cluster sampling design to provide estimates for the health and demographic variables of interest for the country. Our study focused on a sample of 10,896 women with history of at least one childbirth event. Percentages of timing and adequacy of ANC visits were conducted across the levels of selected factors. Variables which were associated at 5% significance level were examined in the multivariable logistic regression model for association between timing and frequency of ANC visits and the explanatory variables while controlling for covariates. Furthermore, we presented the approach to estimate marginal effects involving covariate-adjusted logistic regression with corresponding 95%CI of delayed initiation of ANC visits and inadequate ANC attendance. The method used involved predicted probabilities added up to a weighted average showing the covariate distribution in the population. Results indicate that 66.3% of women did not use ANC at first trimester and 22.3% had ANC less than 4 visits. The results of this study were unique in that the association between delayed ANC visits and adequacy of ANC visits were examined using multivariable logistic model and the marginal effects using predicted probabilities. Results revealed that older age interval has higher odds of inadequate ANC visits. More so, type of place of residence was associated with delayed initiation of ANC visits, with rural women having the higher odds of delayed initiation of ANC visits (OR = 1.65; 95%CI: 1.26-2.18). However, rural women had 44% reduction in the odds of having inadequate ANC visits. In addition, multi-parity showed higher odds of delayed initiation of ANC visit when compared to the primigravida (OR = 2.20; 95%CI: 1.07-2.69). On the contrary, there was 36% reduction in the odds of multigravida having inadequate ANC visits when compared to the women who were primigravida. There were higher odds of inadequacy in ANC visits among women who engaged in sales/business, agriculture, skilled manual and other jobs when compared to women who currently do not work, after adjusting for covariates. From the predictive margins, assuming the distribution of all covariates remained the same among respondents, but everyone was aged 15-19 years, we would expect 71.8% delayed initiation of ANC visit. If everyone was aged 20-24years, 73.4%; 25-29years, 66.5%; 30-34years, 64.8%; 35-39years, 65.6%; 40-44years, 59.6% and 45-49years, we would expect 70.1% delayed initiation of ANC visit. If instead the distribution of age was as observed and for other covariates remained the same among respondents, but no respondent lived in the rural, we would expect about 61.4% delayed initiation of ANC visit; if however, everyone lived in the rural, and we would expect 71.6% delayed initiation in ANC visit. Model III revealed the predictive margins of all factors examined for delayed initiation for ANC visits, while Model IV presented the predictive marginal effects of the determinants of adequacy of ANC visits. The precise mechanism by which these factors affect ANC visits remain blurred at best. There may be factors on the demand side like the women's empowerment, financial support of the husband, knowledge of ANC visits in the context of timing, frequency and the expectations of ANC visits might be mediating the effects through the factors found associated in this study. Supply side factors like the quality of ANC services, skilled staff, and geographic location of the health centers also mediate their effects through the highlighted factors. Irrespective of the knowledge about the precise mechanism of action, policy makers could focus on improving women's empowerment, improving women's education, reducing wealth inequity and facilitating improved utilization of ANC through modifications on the supply side factors such as geographic location and focus on hard to reach women.

A comparative analysis of primary and secondary Gleason pattern predictive ability for positive surgical margins after radical prostatectomy.

PubMed

Sfoungaristos, S; Kavouras, A; Kanatas, P; Polimeros, N; Perimenis, P

2011-01-01

To compare the predictive ability of primary and secondary Gleason pattern for positive surgical margins in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer and a preoperative Gleason score ≤ 6. A retrospective analysis of the medical records of patients undergone a radical prostatectomy between January 2005 and October 2010 was conducted. Patients' age, prostate volume, preoperative PSA, biopsy Gleason score, the 1st and 2nd Gleason pattern were entered a univariate and multivariate analysis. The 1st and 2nd pattern were tested for their ability to predict positive surgical margins using receiver operating characteristic curves. Positive surgical margins were noticed in 56 cases (38.1%) out of 147 studied patients. The 2nd pattern was significantly greater in those with positive surgical margins while the 1st pattern was not significantly different between the 2 groups of patients. ROC analysis revealed that area under the curve was 0.53 (p=0.538) for the 1st pattern and 0.60 (p=0.048) for the 2nd pattern. Concerning the cases with PSA <10 ng/ml, it was also found that only the 2nd pattern had a predictive ability (p=0.050). When multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted it was found that the 2nd pattern was the only independent predictor. The second Gleason pattern was found to be of higher value than the 1st one for the prediction of positive surgical margins in patients with preoperative Gleason score ≤ 6 and this should be considered especially when a neurovascular bundle sparing radical prostatectomy is planned, in order not to harm the oncological outcome.

Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach to Managing Mass Margin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chung, Seung H.; Bayer, Todd J.; Cole, Bjorn; Cooke, Brian; Dekens, Frank; Delp, Christopher; Lam, Doris

2012-01-01

When designing a flight system from concept through implementation, one of the fundamental systems engineering tasks ismanaging the mass margin and a mass equipment list (MEL) of the flight system. While generating a MEL and computing a mass margin is conceptually a trivial task, maintaining consistent and correct MELs and mass margins can be challenging due to the current practices of maintaining duplicate information in various forms, such as diagrams and tables, and in various media, such as files and emails. We have overcome this challenge through a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach within which we allow only a single-source-of-truth. In this paper we describe the modeling patternsused to capture the single-source-of-truth and the views that have been developed for the Europa Habitability Mission (EHM) project, a mission concept study, at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

Plate convergence, transcurrent faults and internal deformation adjacent to Southeast Asia and the western Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fitch, T. J.

1971-01-01

A model for oblique convergence between plates of lithosphere is proposed in which at least a fraction of slip parallel to the plate margin results in transcurrent movements on a nearly vertical fault which is located on the continental side of a zone of plate consumption. In an extreme case of complete decoupling only the component of slip normal to the plate margin can be inferred from underthrusting. Recent movements in the western Sunda region provide the most convincing evidence for decoupling of slip, which in this region is thought to be oblique to the plate margin. A speculative model for convergence along the margins of the Philippine Sea is constructed from an inferred direction of oblique slip in the Philippine region. This model requires that the triple point formed by the junction of the Japanese and Izu-Bonin trenches and the Nankai trough migrate along the Sagami trough.

Lower Crustal Strength Controls on Melting and Serpentinization at Magma-Poor Margins: Potential Implications for the South Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ros, Elena; Pérez-Gussinyé, Marta; Araújo, Mario; Thoaldo Romeiro, Marco; Andrés-Martínez, Miguel; Morgan, Jason P.

2017-12-01

Rifted continental margins may present a predominantly magmatic continent-ocean transition (COT), or one characterized by large exposures of serpentinized mantle. In this study we use numerical modeling to show the importance of the lower crustal strength in controlling the amount and onset of melting and serpentinization during rifting. We propose that the relative timing between both events controls the nature of the COT. Numerical experiments for half-extension velocities <=10 mm/yr suggest there is a genetic link between margin tectonic style and COT nature that strongly depends on the lower crustal strength. Our results imply that very slow extension velocities (< 5 mm/yr) and a strong lower crust lead to margins characterized by large oceanward dipping faults, strong syn-rift subsidence and abrupt crustal tapering beneath the continental shelf. These margins can be either narrow symmetric or asymmetric and present a COT with exhumed serpentinized mantle underlain by some magmatic products. In contrast, a weak lower crust promotes margins with a gentle crustal tapering, small faults dipping both ocean- and landward and small syn-rift subsidence. Their COT is predominantly magmatic at any ultra-slow extension velocity and perhaps underlain by some serpentinized mantle. These margins can also be either symmetric or asymmetric. Our models predict that magmatic underplating mostly underlies the wide margin at weak asymmetric conjugates, whereas the wide margin is mainly underlain by serpentinized mantle at strong asymmetric margins. Based on this conceptual template, we propose different natures for the COTs in the South Atlantic.

Modelling of Continental Lithosphere Breakup and Rifted Margin Formation in Response to an Upwelling Divergent Flow Field Incorporating a Temperature Dependent Rheology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tymms, V. J.; Kusznir, N. J.

2005-05-01

We numerically model continental lithosphere deformation leading to breakup and sea floor spreading initiation in response to an imposed upwelling and divergent flow field applied to continental lithosphere and asthenosphere. The model is used to predict rifted continental margin lithosphere thinning and temperature structure. Model predictions are compared with observed rifted margin structure for four diverse case studies. Prior to application of the upwelling divergent flow field the continental lithosphere is undeformed with a uniform temperature gradient. The upwelling divergent flow field is defined kinematically using boundary conditions consisting of the upwelling velocity Vz at the divergence axis and the half divergence rate Vx . The resultant velocity field throughout the continuum is computed using finite element (FE) code incorporating a Newtonian temperature dependent rheology. The flow field is used to advect the continental lithosphere material and lithospheric and asthenospheric temperatures. Viscosity structure is hence modified and the velocities change correspondingly in a feedback loop. We find the kinematic boundary conditions Vz and Vx to be of first order importance. A high Vz/Vx (greater than10), corresponding to buoyancy assisted flow, leads to minimal mantle exhumation and a well defined continent ocean transition consistent with observations at volcanic margins. For Vz/Vx near unity, corresponding to plate boundary driven divergence, mantle exhumation over widths of up to 100 km is predicted which is consistent with observations at non-volcanic margins. The FE method allows the upwelling velocity Vz to be propagated upwards from the top of the asthenosphere to the Earth's surface without the requirement of imposing Vx. When continental breakup is achieved the half divergence velocity Vx can be applied at the lithosphere surface and the upwelling velocity Vz left free. We find this time and space dependent set of boundary conditions is more plausible than a constant corner flow type solution and predicts levels of depth dependent stretching and continent ocean transitions consistent with observation. Depth dependent lithosphere stretching, which is observed at rifted continental margins, is predicted to occur before continental breakup and sea-floor spreading initiation. The model may be used to predict surface heat flow and bathymetry, and to provide estimates of melt production rates and cumulative thickness. We compare model predictions with observed margin structure for four diverse rifted margins: the Lofoten Margin (a mature volcanic margin), Goban Spur (a mature non-volcanic margin), the Woodlark Basin (a neotectonic young ocean basin) and the Faroe-Shetland Basin (a failed attempt at continental breakup). This work forms part of the NERC Margins iSIMM project. iSIMM investigators are from Liverpool and Cambridge Universities, Badley Geoscience & Schlumberger Cambridge Research supported by the NERC, the DTI, Agip UK, BP, Amerada Hess Ltd, Anadarko, Conoco¬Phillips, Shell, Statoil and WesternGeco. The iSIMM team comprises NJ Kusznir, RS White, AM Roberts, PAF Christie, A Chappell, J Eccles, R Fletcher, D Healy, N Hurst, ZC Lunnon, CJ Parkin, AW Roberts, LK Smith, V Tymms & R Spitzer.

Bathymetric terrain model of the Atlantic margin for marine geological investigations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andrews, Brian D.; Chaytor, Jason D.; ten Brink, Uri S.; Brothers, Daniel S.; Gardner, James V.; Lobecker, Elizabeth A.; Calder, Brian R.

2016-01-01

A bathymetric terrain model of the Atlantic margin covering almost 725,000 square kilometers of seafloor from the New England Seamounts in the north to the Blake Basin in the south is compiled from existing multibeam bathymetric data for marine geological investigations. Although other terrain models of the same area are extant, they are produced from either satellite-derived bathymetry at coarse resolution (ETOPO1), or use older bathymetric data collected by using a combination of single beam and multibeam sonars (Coastal Relief Model). The new multibeam data used to produce this terrain model have been edited by using hydrographic data processing software to maximize the quality, usability, and cartographic presentation of the combined 100-meter resolution grid. The final grid provides the largest high-resolution, seamless terrain model of the Atlantic margin..

The Relational-Behavior Survey as a Predictor of HIV-Related Parental Miscommunication: Implications for HIV, Prevention and Education at Primary Healthcare Service Facilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chandler, Michele Denise; Chandler, Donald S.; Chandler, Donald S., Jr.; Race, James

2012-01-01

The study examined the relational-behavior survey (RBS) as a predictor of HIV-related parental miscommunication (HPM) among a voluntary sample 75 African American parents at a private healthcare facility located in the southwest region of the United States. A multiple regression analysis indicated that there was significant marginal prediction of…

Study of Personnel Attrition and Revocation within U.S. Marine Corps Air Traffic Control Specialties

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

Entrance Processing Stations (MEPS) and recruit depots, to include non-cognitive testing, such as Navy Computer Adaptive Personality Scales ( NCAPS ...Revocation, Selection, MOS, Regression, Probit, dProbit, STATA, Statistics, Marginal Effects, ASVAB, AFQT, Composite Scores, Screening, NCAPS 15. NUMBER...Navy Computer Adaptive Personality Scales ( NCAPS ), during recruitment. It is also recommended that an economic analysis be conducted comparing the

Integrated Geophysical Models Extending From The Craton Across The Gulf Coast Region Of The USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, G. R.; Mickus, K. L.; Thomas, W. A.

2017-12-01

In spite of decades of industry geophysical studies in the US Gulf Coast region, its crustal and uppermost mantle structure remain poorly understood. To understand the structure of this region and its variations from the southern Appalachians to northernmost Mexico, we have complied and integrated multiple data sets to produce a set of lithospheric scale transects crossing this region. These transects are presented as gravity models, but they are constrained by the available seismic reflection/refraction, passive seismic, magnetic, drilling, and geological data. The key transect is based on the PASSCAL wide-angle reflection/refraction experiment that extended from the Ouachita Mountains in Arkansas across the Sabine uplift in Louisiana and into the northernmost Gulf of Mexico. This experiment imaged the Iapetan rifted margin and showed that it was not strongly deformed. This model and one across Alabama delineated crustal blocks south of the rifted margin of Laurentia whose origin is unknown. In central Texas, the models show a crust that thins gradually from the Ouachita orogenic belt southward across the coastline to the edge of the continental margin in the Gulf of Mexico. In western Texas and adjacent northern Mexico, another crustal block has been proposed. Thus, our integrated models and geologic constraints show that the Appalachian and Ouachita orogenic belts were formed during assembly of Pangea (by 270 Ma), and were driven onto the Iapetan rifted margin by collisions with arcs, exotic terranes, and other continents. They also show that the sinuous curves of the Appalachian-Ouachita orogen mimic the shape of the Iapetan rifted margin and subsequent passive-margin shelf edge. Our results indicate that the Ouachita orogeny appears to be the result of soft collisions that have left the pre-orogenic rifted margins largely intact and reflect the complex interactions of compressional and strike-slip deformation.

Chronic condition combinations and health care expenditures and out-of-pocket spending burden among adults, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 2009 and 2011.

PubMed

Meraya, Abdulkarim M; Raval, Amit D; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2015-01-29

Little is known about how combinations of chronic conditions in adults affect total health care expenditures. Our objective was to estimate the annual average total expenditures and out-of-pocket spending burden among US adults by combinations of conditions. We conducted a cross-sectional study using 2009 and 2011 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The sample consisted of 9,296 adults aged 21 years or older with at least 2 of the following 4 highly prevalent chronic conditions: arthritis, diabetes mellitus, heart disease, and hypertension. Unadjusted and adjusted regression techniques were used to examine the association between chronic condition combinations and log-transformed total expenditures. Logistic regressions were used to analyze the relationship between chronic condition combinations and high out-of-pocket spending burden. Among adults with chronic conditions, adults with all 4 conditions had the highest average total expenditures ($20,016), whereas adults with diabetes/hypertension had the lowest annual total expenditures ($7,116). In adjusted models, adults with diabetes/hypertension and hypertension/arthritis had lower health care expenditures than adults with diabetes/heart disease (P < .001). In adjusted models, adults with all 4 conditions had higher expenditures compared with those with diabetes and heart disease. However, the difference was only marginally significant (P = .04). Among adults with arthritis, diabetes, heart disease, and hypertension, total health care expenditures differed by type of chronic condition combinations. For individuals with multiple chronic conditions, such as heart disease and diabetes, new models of care management are needed to reduce the cost burden on the payers.

An Improved Nested Sampling Algorithm for Model Selection and Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.; Ye, M.; Wu, J.; WANG, D.

2017-12-01

Multimodel strategy is a general approach for treating model structure uncertainty in recent researches. The unknown groundwater system is represented by several plausible conceptual models. Each alternative conceptual model is attached with a weight which represents the possibility of this model. In Bayesian framework, the posterior model weight is computed as the product of model prior weight and marginal likelihood (or termed as model evidence). As a result, estimating marginal likelihoods is crucial for reliable model selection and assessment in multimodel analysis. Nested sampling estimator (NSE) is a new proposed algorithm for marginal likelihood estimation. The implementation of NSE comprises searching the parameters' space from low likelihood area to high likelihood area gradually, and this evolution is finished iteratively via local sampling procedure. Thus, the efficiency of NSE is dominated by the strength of local sampling procedure. Currently, Metropolis-Hasting (M-H) algorithm and its variants are often used for local sampling in NSE. However, M-H is not an efficient sampling algorithm for high-dimensional or complex likelihood function. For improving the performance of NSE, it could be feasible to integrate more efficient and elaborated sampling algorithm - DREAMzs into the local sampling. In addition, in order to overcome the computation burden problem of large quantity of repeating model executions in marginal likelihood estimation, an adaptive sparse grid stochastic collocation method is used to build the surrogates for original groundwater model.

[Oxidative stress experimental model of rat with stria vascularis marginal cells injury induced by hydrogen peroxide in vitro].

PubMed

Li, Jun; Kong, Wei-jia; Zhao, Xue-yan; Hu, Yu-juan

2008-11-01

To set up the oxidative stress experimental model of rat cochlea with stria vascularis marginal cells injury induced by hydrogen peroxide in vitro. Cultured marginal cells of rat were treated by 200, 300, 400, 600 and 800 micromol/L hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) for 0.5, 1, 2, 4, 16 and 24 hours, respectively. Cell viability was assessed by the CCK-8 assay. The content of the lipid peroxidation production malondialdehyde (MDA) were detected in H(2)O(2) induced marginal cells injury with different concentration H(2)O(2). Apoptosis was assessed by flow cytometry by propidium sodium staining. The expression of the cleaved-caspase-3 was assessed by Western blot. Being exposed to H(2)O(2), marginal cells displayed nuclear pyknosis and margination, cytoplasmic condensation, cell shrinkage and formation of membrane and bounded apoptotic bodies. A time-dependent and dose-dependent decrease of cellular viability was detected with the treatment of H(2)O(2). Cellular maleic dialdehyde was generated in proportion to the concentration of H(2)O(2) at 2 hours and the number of apoptotic cells increased significantly (P < 0. 05). Western blot showed the expression of the cleaved-caspase-3 increased when 200 micromol/L, 300 micromol/L and 400 micromol/L H(2)O(2) treated cultured marginal cells. Thereafter the expression of the cleaved-caspase-3 decreased with 600 micromol/L H(2)O(2) and with 800 micromol/L H(2)O(2) the expression of cleaved-caspase-3 was weak. The findings indicated that the experimental model can be established successfully using cultured cells exposed to H(2)O(2) and activation of caspase-3 is associated with hydrogen peroxide induced rat marginal cells the oxidative stress injury.

Did Groundwater Processes Shape the Saharan Landscape during the Previous Wet Periods? a Remote Sensing and Geostatistical Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farag, A. Z. A.; Sultan, M.; Elkadiri, R.; Abdelhalim, A.

2014-12-01

An integrated approach using remote sensing, landscape analysis and statistical methods was conducted to assess the role of groundwater sapping in shaping the Saharan landscape. A GIS-based logistic regression model was constructed to automatically delineate the spatial distribution of the sapping features over areas occupied by the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS): (1) an inventory was compiled of known locations of sapping features identified either in the field or from satellite datasets (e.g. Orbview-3 and Google Earth Digital Globe imagery); (2) spatial analyses were conducted in a GIS environment and seven geomorphological and geological predisposing factors (i.e. slope, stream density, cross-sectional and profile curvature, minimum and maximum curvature, and lithology) were identified; (3) a binary logistic regression model was constructed, optimized and validated to describe the relationship between the sapping locations and the set of controlling factors and (4) the generated model (prediction accuracy: 90.1%) was used to produce a regional sapping map over the NSAS. Model outputs indicate: (1) groundwater discharge and structural control played an important role in excavating the Saharan natural depressions as evidenced by the wide distribution of sapping features (areal extent: 1180 km2) along the fault-controlled escarpments of the Libyan Plateau; (2) proximity of mapped sapping features to reported paleolake and tufa deposits suggesting a causal effect. Our preliminary observations (from satellite imagery) and statistical analyses together with previous studies in the North Western Sahara Aquifer System (North Africa), Sinai Peninsula, Negev Desert, and The Plateau of Najd (Saudi Arabia) indicate extensive occurrence of sapping features along the escarpments bordering the northern margins of the Saharan-Arabian Desert; these areas share similar hydrologic settings with the NSAS domains and they too witnessed wet climatic periods in the Mid-Late Quaternary.

Mexican Americans in Higher Education: Cultural Adaptation and Marginalization as Predictors of College Persistence Intentions and Life Satisfaction

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ojeda, Lizette; Castillo, Linda G.; Rosales Meza, Rocío; Piña-Watson, Brandy

2014-01-01

This study examined how college persistence intentions and life satisfaction influenced by acculturation, enculturation, White marginalization, and Mexican American marginalization among 515 Mexican American college students. The utility of a path analysis model was supported. Enculturation positively predicted persistence and life satisfaction.…

Liberation and Economic Marginalization: A Reformulation and Test of (Formerly?) Competing Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunnicutt, Gwen; Broidy, Lisa M.

2004-01-01

This study reconceptualizes and tests liberation and economic marginality hypotheses as complementary explanations for female offending patterns. Both explanations are relevant in explaining female crime, but need to be reframed as interacting forces not opposing theories. It is suggested that economic marginality is in part a consequence of…

Bridging the Gap between Theory and Practice in Educational Research: Methods at the Margins

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winkle-Wagner, Rachelle, Ed.; Hunter, Cheryl A., Ed.; Ortloff, Debora Hinderliter, Ed.

2009-01-01

This book provides new ways of thinking about educational processes, using quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Concrete examples of research techniques are provided for those conducting research with marginalized populations or about marginalized ideas. This volume asserts theoretical models related to research methods and the study of…

Prediction of Flutter Boundary Using Flutter Margin for The Discrete-Time System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dwi Saputra, Angga; Wibawa Purabaya, R.

2018-04-01

Flutter testing in a wind tunnel is generally conducted at subcritical speeds to avoid damages. Hence, The flutter speed has to be predicted from the behavior some of its stability criteria estimated against the dynamic pressure or flight speed. Therefore, it is quite important for a reliable flutter prediction method to estimates flutter boundary. This paper summarizes the flutter testing of a wing cantilever model in a wind tunnel. The model has two degree of freedom; they are bending and torsion modes. The flutter test was conducted in a subsonic wind tunnel. The dynamic data responses was measured by two accelerometers that were mounted on leading edge and center of wing tip. The measurement was repeated while the wind speed increased. The dynamic responses were used to determine the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system. The flutter boundary of the model was estimated using extrapolation of the parameter flutter margin against the dynamic pressure. The parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system has a better performance for flutter prediction than the modal parameters. A model with two degree freedom and experiencing classical flutter, the parameter flutter margin for the discrete-time system gives a satisfying result in prediction of flutter boundary on subsonic wind tunnel test.

Comparison of retraction phenomenon and BI-RADS-US descriptors in differentiating benign and malignant breast masses using an automated breast volume scanner.

PubMed

Zheng, Feng-Yang; Yan, Li-Xia; Huang, Bei-Jian; Xia, Han-Sheng; Wang, Xi; Lu, Qing; Li, Cui-Xian; Wang, Wen-Ping

2015-11-01

To compare the diagnostic values of retraction phenomenon in the coronal planes and descriptors in the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System-Ultrasound (BI-RADS-US) lexicon in differentiating benign and malignant breast masses using an automated breast volume scanner (ABVS). Two hundred and eight female patients with 237 pathologically proven breast masses (120 benign and 117 malignant) were included in this study. ABVS was performed for each mass after preoperative localization by conventional ultrasonography (US). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to assess independent variables for malignancy prediction. Diagnostic performance was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Retraction phenomenon (odds ratio [OR]: 76.70; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.55, 468.70; P<0.001) was the strongest independent predictor for malignant masses, followed by microlobulated margins (OR: 55.87; 95% CI: 12.56, 248.44; P<0.001), angular margins (OR: 36.44; 95% CI: 4.55, 292.06; P=0.001), calcifications (OR: 5.53; 95% CI: 1.34, 22.88; P=0.018,) and patient age (OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.17; P=0.004). Mass shape, orientation, echo pattern, indistinct margins, spiculated margins, and mass size were not significantly associated with breast malignancy. Area under the ROC curve (Az) for microlobulated margins and retraction phenomenon was higher than that for other significant independent predictors. Az, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.877 (95% CI: 0.829, 0.926) and 0.838 (95% CI: 0.783, 0.892), 82.9% and 70.1%, and 92.5% and 98.3%, respectively, for microlobulated margins and retraction phenomenon. Retraction phenomenon and microlobulated margins have high diagnostic values in the differentiation of benign and malignant breast masses using an ABVS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

How willing are landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops in the Northern Great Lakes Region?

DOE PAGES

Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; Barham, Bradford L.; ...

2016-04-30

Land to produce biomass is essential if the United States is to expand bioenergy supply. Use of agriculturally marginal land avoids the food vs. fuel problems of food price rises and carbon debt that are associated with crop and forestland. Recent remote sensing studies have identified large areas of US marginal land deemed suitable for bioenergy crops. Yet the sustainability benefits of growing bioenergy crops on marginal land only pertain if land is economically available. Scant attention has been paid to the willingness of landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops. Focusing on the northern tier of the Great Lakes,more » where grassland transitions to forest and land prices are low, this contingent valuation study reports on the willingness of a representative sample of 1124 private, noncorporate landowners to rent land for three bioenergy crops: corn, switchgrass, and poplar. Of the 11% of land that was agriculturally marginal, they were willing to make available no more than 21% for any bioenergy crop (switchgrass preferred on marginal land) at double the prevailing land rental rate in the region. At the same generous rental rate, of the 28% that is cropland, they would rent up to 23% for bioenergy crops (corn preferred), while of the 55% that is forestland, they would rent up to 15% for bioenergy crops (poplar preferred). Regression results identified deterrents to land rental for bioenergy purposes included appreciation of environmental amenities and concern about rental disamenities. In sum, like landowners in the southern Great Lakes region, landowners in the Northern Tier are reluctant to supply marginal land for bioenergy crops. If rental markets existed, they would rent more crop and forestland for bioenergy crops than they would marginal land, which would generate carbon debt and opportunity costs in wood product and food markets.« less

How willing are landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops in the Northern Great Lakes Region?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Swinton, Scott M.; Tanner, Sophia; Barham, Bradford L.

Land to produce biomass is essential if the United States is to expand bioenergy supply. Use of agriculturally marginal land avoids the food vs. fuel problems of food price rises and carbon debt that are associated with crop and forestland. Recent remote sensing studies have identified large areas of US marginal land deemed suitable for bioenergy crops. Yet the sustainability benefits of growing bioenergy crops on marginal land only pertain if land is economically available. Scant attention has been paid to the willingness of landowners to supply land for bioenergy crops. Focusing on the northern tier of the Great Lakes,more » where grassland transitions to forest and land prices are low, this contingent valuation study reports on the willingness of a representative sample of 1124 private, noncorporate landowners to rent land for three bioenergy crops: corn, switchgrass, and poplar. Of the 11% of land that was agriculturally marginal, they were willing to make available no more than 21% for any bioenergy crop (switchgrass preferred on marginal land) at double the prevailing land rental rate in the region. At the same generous rental rate, of the 28% that is cropland, they would rent up to 23% for bioenergy crops (corn preferred), while of the 55% that is forestland, they would rent up to 15% for bioenergy crops (poplar preferred). Regression results identified deterrents to land rental for bioenergy purposes included appreciation of environmental amenities and concern about rental disamenities. In sum, like landowners in the southern Great Lakes region, landowners in the Northern Tier are reluctant to supply marginal land for bioenergy crops. If rental markets existed, they would rent more crop and forestland for bioenergy crops than they would marginal land, which would generate carbon debt and opportunity costs in wood product and food markets.« less

Medical and Social Determinants of Subsequent Labour Market Marginalization in Young Hospitalized Suicide Attempters

PubMed Central

Niederkrotenthaler, Thomas; Tinghög, Petter; Goldman-Mellor, Sidra; Wilcox, Holly C.; Gould, Madelyn; Mittendorfer-Rutz, Ellenor

2016-01-01

Background Individuals with a history of suicide attempt have a high risk for subsequent labour market marginalization. This study aimed at assessing the effect of individual and parental factors on different measures of marginalization. Methods Prospective cohort study based on register linkage of 5 649 individuals who in 1994 were 16–30 years old, lived in Sweden and were treated in inpatient care for suicide attempt during 1992–1994. Hazard ratios (HRs) for labour market marginalization defined as long-term unemployment (>180 days), sickness absence (>90 days), or disability pension in 1995–2010 were calculated with Cox regression. Results Medical risk factors, particularly any earlier diagnosed specific mental disorders (e.g., schizophrenia: HR 5.4 (95% CI: 4.2, 7.0), personality disorders: HR 3.9, 95% CI: 3.1, 4.9), repetitive suicide attempts (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4, 1.9) were associated with a higher relative risk of disability pension. Individual medical factors were of smaller importance for long-term sickness absence, and of only marginal relevance to long-term unemployment. Country of birth outside Europe had an opposite effect on disability pension (HR 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.8) and long-term unemployment (HR 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3, 1.8). Female sex was positively correlated with long-term sickness absence (HR 1.6, 95% CI: 1.4, 1.7), and negatively associated with long-term unemployment (HR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.7, 0.9). Conclusions As compared to disability pension, long-term sickness absence and unemployment was more strongly related to socio-economic variables. Marginalization pathways seemed to vary with migration status and sex. These findings may contribute to the development of intervention strategies which take the individual risk for marginalization into account. PMID:26784886

Role of Adjuvant Treatment in Esophageal Cancer With Incidental Pathologic Node Positivity.

PubMed

Gao, Sarah J; Park, Henry S; Corso, Christopher D; Rutter, Charles E; Kim, Anthony W; Johung, Kimberly L

2017-07-01

The optimal adjuvant treatment for cT1-2 N0 esophageal cancer patients found to have pathologic nodal involvement after an upfront operation is unclear. This study investigated the effects of postoperative chemotherapy and chemoradiation therapy on overall survival in cT1-2 N0 patients with incidental pN + disease stratified by margin status. We identified cT1-2 N0 M0 esophageal carcinoma patients from 2004 to 2012 from the National Cancer Data Base. Patients were categorized as having received surgical resection alone, surgical resection followed by chemotherapy (S+CT), and surgical resection followed by concurrent chemoradiation therapy (S+CRT). Subset analyses were conducted on margin-negative and margin-positive patients. Overall survival was compared by Kaplan-Meier estimation, the log-rank test, and multivariable Cox regression analysis. Among 443 patients, 52.6% received surgical resection alone, 18.7% received S+CT, and 28.6% received S+CRT. Significantly more adenocarcinoma patients received adjuvant treatment (50.8%) than squamous cell carcinoma patients (27.7%, p = 0.001). On multivariable analysis, S+CT (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.45 to 0.91; p = 0.014) and S+CRT (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval,. 0.55 to 0.98; p = 0.038) both were associated with significantly increased overall survival. These findings persisted among margin-negative patients. However, in margin-positive patients, S+CRT (hazard ratio, 0.29; p = 0.002) was the only treatment arm that was associated with significantly improved survival compared with surgical resection alone. Among cT1-2 N0 pN + esophageal cancer patients, adjuvant chemotherapy may be sufficient for margin-negative patients, whereas adjuvant chemoradiation therapy appears necessary for margin-positive patients. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm the results. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical Considerations of Adapted Drilling Protocol by Bone Quality Perception.

PubMed

Toia, Marco; Stocchero, Michele; Cecchinato, Francesca; Corrà, Enrico; Jimbo, Ryo; Cecchinato, Denis

To evaluate insertion torque value (ITV) and marginal bone loss (MBL) of an implant system after a clinically perceived bone quality-adapted drilling. This multicenter retrospective study included patients treated with implants, conventionally loaded, in completely healed sites. Operators customized the osteotomy preparation according to radiographic assessment and their perception of bone quality. Drilling sequence, bone quality, and ITV were recorded at the time of surgery. Radiographs were taken at the time of implant placement and permanent restoration. MBL between implant placement and permanent restoration was calculated. The implant was used as the statistical unit. Demographic and implant characteristics were shown by means of descriptive statistics. Outcome values were compared using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Multiple regression models were used to test the effect of independent variables on ITV and MBL. One hundred eighty-eight implants placed in 87 patients were included in the analysis. The mean observation period was 144 ± 59 days. The mean ITV was 30.8 ± 15.1 Ncm. ITV differed significantly based on arches (mandible/maxilla) (P = .001), bone quality (P < .001), implant diameter (P = .032), and drilling protocol (P = .019). Median MBL was 0.05 mm (0.00; 0.24). A significant difference was found between the mandible and maxilla (P = .008) and between drilling protocols (P = .011). In particular, significantly higher MBL was found in the undersized drilling protocol. Multiple regression analysis showed that ITV was influenced by bone quality and implant diameter. MBL was influenced by bone quality, implant diameter, ITV, and the interaction between bone quality and ITV. It was estimated that MBL was greater with increased bone density and ITV. Excessive ITV in dense bone can cause negative marginal bone responses. A presurgical radiographic assessment and the perception of bone quality are necessary to select an optimal drilling protocol and to minimize surgical trauma.

An Evaluation of Hierarchical Bayes Estimation for the Two- Parameter Logistic Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Seock-Ho

Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

[Social environment and risky eating behaviors: an exploratory study in adolescent females in Mexico].

PubMed

Bojorquez, Ietza; Saucedo-Molina, Teresita de Jesús; Juárez-García, Francisco; Unikel-Santoncini, Claudia

2013-01-01

The objectives of the current study were to explore: (1) the association between the social environment at the city and family levels and risky eating behaviors in adolescent females and (2) the interaction between the social and cultural environment and body mass index (BMI). The data were obtained from a representative survey of female high school students in Mexico State, Mexico (15-19 years). A questionnaire was applied on risky eating behaviors and socio-demographic data. The municipal social and cultural environment was evaluated using the municipal marginalization index. Data analysis used multivariate regression. Prevalence of risky eating behaviors was 4.23%. BMI and family socioeconomic status were directly associated with risky eating behaviors. The municipal marginalization index was not associated with risky eating behaviors. Possible explanations for the latter are that the relevant components of the social and cultural environment were not measured, or that the municipal level does not exert a contextual effect on risky eating behaviors. The effect of BMI on risky eating behaviors was greater in more marginalized municipalities.

Longitudinal analysis of high-technology medical services and hospital financial performance.

PubMed

Zengul, Ferhat D; Weech-Maldonado, Robert; Ozaydin, Bunyamin; Patrician, Patricia A; OʼConnor, Stephen J

U.S. hospitals have been investing in high-technology medical services as a strategy to improve financial performance. Despite the interest in high-tech medical services, there is not much information available about the impact of high-tech services on financial performance. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of high-tech medical services on financial performance of U.S. hospitals by using the resource-based view of the firm as a conceptual framework. Fixed-effects regressions with 2 years lagged independent variables using a longitudinal panel sample of 3,268 hospitals (2005-2010). It was hypothesized that hospitals with rare or large numbers (breadth) of high-tech medical services will experience better financial performance. Fixed effects regression results supported the link between a larger breadth of high-tech services and total margin, but only among not-for-profit hospitals. Both breadth and rareness of high-tech services were associated with high total margin among not-for-profit hospitals. Neither breadth nor rareness of high-tech services was associated with operating margin. Although breadth and rareness of high-tech services resulted in lower expenses per inpatient day among not-for-profit hospitals, these lower costs were offset by lower revenues per inpatient day. Enhancing the breadth of high-tech services may be a legitimate organizational strategy to improve financial performance, especially among not-for-profit hospitals. Hospitals may experience increased productivity and efficiency, and therefore lower inpatient operating costs, as a result of newer technologies. However, the negative impact on operating revenue should caution hospital administrators about revenue reducing features of these technologies, which may be related to the payer mix that these technologies may attract. Therefore, managers should consider both the cost and revenue implications of these technologies.

Structure and rheology of the lithosphere below southeastern margin of India and Sri Lanka, and its conjugate segment of the east Antarctica: Implications on early breakup history and margin formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao Gangumalla, Srinivasa; Radhakrishna, Munukutla

2014-05-01

The eastern continental margin of India has evolved as a consequence of rifting and breakup between India and east Antarctica during the early Cretaceous. Plate reconstruction models for the breakup of eastern Gondwanaland by many earlier workers have unambiguously placed the southeast margin of Sri Lanka and India together as a conjugate segment with the east Antarctica margin that extends from Gunnerus Ridge in the west to western Enderby basin in the east. In this study, we present results of integrated analysis of gravity, geoid, magnetic and seismic data from these two conjugate portions in order to examine the lithosphere structure and early seafloor spreading, style of breakup, continent-ocean boundary (COB) and rheological characteristics at these margins. The interpreted COB lies at a distance of 55-140 km on the side of southeast margin of Sri Lanka and India, whereas, it lies at a distance of 190-550 km on the side of east Antarctica margin. The seismic profiles and the constrained potential field models across these two segments do not show the existence of seaward dipping reflector sequences or magmatic underplating suggesting that these segments have not encountered major magmatic activity. While, significant crustal thinning/stretching is observed at the east Antarctic margin, the Cauvery offshore had experienced limited stretching with faulted Moho interface. Further, the conspicuous residual geoid low in the Cauvery offshore basin is inferred to be due to a continental crustal block. The modelled Lithosphere-Astenosphere Boundary (LAB) in these two margins is located around 110-120 km depth with slightly thicker lithosphere at the east Antarctica margin. In addition, the interpretation of magnetic anomalies provided structure of the oceanic crust generated through seafloor spreading processes with age and magnetization data constrained from the identified magnetic anomalies in the respective margins. Using the Bouguer coherence method, we computed spatial variations in effective elastic thickness (Te) at these margin segments. The estimated Te values at the Indian margin ranges between 5-8 km in the southeast of Sri Lanka to around 10-12 km in the Cauvery offshore which decrease further north to < 5 km in the Cauvery-Palar basin. Along the east Antarctic margin, the Te values ranges between 5-10 km in the Gunnerus ridge region, 35-40 km in the western Enderby basin which decrease further towards the central Enderby basin up to 20 km. In this study, the above results have been analyzed in terms of early breakup mechanism and subsequent evolution of these two conjugate segments.

Online sparse Gaussian process based human motion intent learning for an electrically actuated lower extremity exoskeleton.

PubMed

Long, Yi; Du, Zhi-Jiang; Chen, Chao-Feng; Dong, Wei; Wang, Wei-Dong

2017-07-01

The most important step for lower extremity exoskeleton is to infer human motion intent (HMI), which contributes to achieve human exoskeleton collaboration. Since the user is in the control loop, the relationship between human robot interaction (HRI) information and HMI is nonlinear and complicated, which is difficult to be modeled by using mathematical approaches. The nonlinear approximation can be learned by using machine learning approaches. Gaussian Process (GP) regression is suitable for high-dimensional and small-sample nonlinear regression problems. GP regression is restrictive for large data sets due to its computation complexity. In this paper, an online sparse GP algorithm is constructed to learn the HMI. The original training dataset is collected when the user wears the exoskeleton system with friction compensation to perform unconstrained movement as far as possible. The dataset has two kinds of data, i.e., (1) physical HRI, which is collected by torque sensors placed at the interaction cuffs for the active joints, i.e., knee joints; (2) joint angular position, which is measured by optical position sensors. To reduce the computation complexity of GP, grey relational analysis (GRA) is utilized to specify the original dataset and provide the final training dataset. Those hyper-parameters are optimized offline by maximizing marginal likelihood and will be applied into online GP regression algorithm. The HMI, i.e., angular position of human joints, will be regarded as the reference trajectory for the mechanical legs. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, experiments are performed on a subject at a natural speed. The experimental results show the HMI can be obtained in real time, which can be extended and employed in the similar exoskeleton systems.

Importance of flexure in response to sedimentation and erosion along the US Atlantic passive margin in reconciling sea level change and paleoshorelines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moucha, R.; Ruetenik, G.; de Boer, B.

2017-12-01

Reconciling elevations of paleoshorelines along the US Atlantic passive margin with estimates of eustatic sea level have long posed to be a challenge. Discrepancies between shoreline elevation and sea level have been attributed to combinations of tectonics, glacial isostatic adjustment, mantle convection, gravitation and/or errors, for example, in the inference of eustatic sea level from the marine 18O record. Herein we present a numerical model of landscape evolution combined with sea level change and solid Earth deformations to demonstrate the importance of flexural effects in response to erosion and sedimentation along the US Atlantic passive margin. We quantify these effects using two different temporal models. One reconciles the Orangeburg scarp, a well-documented 3.5 million-year-old mid-Pliocene shoreline, with a 15 m mid-Pliocene sea level above present-day (Moucha and Ruetenik, 2017). The other model focuses on the evolution of the South Carolina and northern Georgia margin since MIS 11 ( 400 Ka) using a fully coupled ice sheet, sea level and solid Earth model (de Boer et al, 2014) while relating our results to a series of enigmatic sea level high stand markers. de Boer, B., Stocci, P., and van de Wal, R. (2014). A fully coupled 3-d ice-sheet-sea-level model: algorithm and applications. Geoscientific Model Development, 7:2141-2156. Moucha, R. and Ruetenik, G. A. (2017). Interplay between dynamic topography and flexure along the US Atlantic passive margin: Insights from landscape evolution modeling. Global and Planetary Change, 149: 72-78

Lower crustal strength controls on melting and type of oceanization at magma-poor margins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ros, E.; Perez-Gussinye, M.; Araujo, M. N.; Thoaldo Romeiro, M.; Andres-Martinez, M.; Morgan, J. P.

2017-12-01

Geodynamical models have been widely used to explain the variability in the architectonical style of conjugate rifted margins as a combination of lithospheric deformation modes, which are strongly influenced by lower crustal strength. We use 2D numerical models to show that the lower crustal strength also plays a key role on the onset and amount of melting and serpentinization during continental rifting. The relative timing between melting and serpentinization onsets controls whether the continent-ocean transition (COT) of margins will be predominantly magmatic or will mainly consist of exhumed and serpentinized mantle. Based on our results for magma-poor continental rifting, we propose a genetic link between margin architecture and COT styles that can be used as an additional tool to help interpret and understand the processes leading to margin formation. Our results show that strong lower crusts and very slow extension velocities (<5 mm/yr) lead to either symmetric or asymmetric margins with large oceanward dipping faults, strong syn-rift subsidence and abrupt crustal tapering beneath the continental shelf. These margins are characterized by a COT consisting of exhumed and serpentinized mantle and some magmatic products. Weak lower crusts at ultra-slow velocities lead also to either symmetric or asymmetric margins with small faults dipping both ocean- and landward, small syn-rift subsidence and gentle crustal tapering, and present a predominantly magmatic COT, perhaps underlain by some serpentinized mantle. When conjugate margins are asymmetric, if the rheology is relatively strong, serpentinite predominantly underlays the wide margin, whereas if the lower crustal strength is weak, melt preferentially migrates towards the wide margin. Based on the onshore lithospheric structure, extension velocity and margin architecture of the magma-poor section of the South Atlantic, we suggest that the COT of the northern sector, Camamu-Gabon basins, is more likely to consist of exhumed mantle with intruded magmatism, while to the South, the Camamu-Kwanza and North Santos-South Kwanza conjugates, may be better characterized by a predominantly magmatic COT.

Late Cenozoic flexural deformation of the middle U.S. Atlantic passive margin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pazzaglia, Frank J.; Gardner, Thomas, W.

1994-01-01

Despite the century-long recognition of regional epeirogeny along the middle Atlantic passive margin, relatively few studies have focused on understanding postrift uplift mechanisms. Here, we demonstrate that epeirogenic uplift of the central Appalachian Piedmont and subsidence of the Salisbury Embayment represent first-order, flexural isostatic processes driven by continental denudation and offshore deposition. Our results show that regional epeirogenic processes, present on all Atlantic-type passive margins, are best resolved by specific stratigraphic and geomorphic relationships, rather than topography. A simple one-dimensional geodynamic model, constrained by well-dated Baltimore Canyon trough, Coastal Plain, and lower Susquehanna River (piedmont) stratigraphy, simulates flexural deforamtion of the U.S. Atlantic margin. The model represents the passive margin lithosphree as a uniformly thick elastic plate, without horizontal compressive stresses, that deforms flexurally under the stress of strike-averaged, vertically applied line loads. Model results illustrate a complex interaction among margin stratigraphy and geomorphology, the isostatic repsonse to denudational and depositional processes, and the modulating influence of exogenic forces such as eustasy. The current elevation, with respect to modern sea level, of fluvial terraces and correlateive Coastal Plain deposits or unconformities is successfully predicted through the synthesis of paleotopography, eustatic change, and margin flexure. Results suggest that the middle U.S. Atlantic margin landward of East Coast Magnetic Anomaly is underlain by lithoshpere with an average elastic thickness of 40 km (flexural rigidity, D = 4 X 10(exp 23) N m), the margin experience an average, long-term denudation rate of approximately 10m/m.y., and the Piedmont has been flexurally upwaped between 35 and 130 meters in the last 15 m.y. Long term isostatic continental uplift resulting rom denudation and basin subsidence resulting rom sediment loading are accomodated primately by a convex-up flexural hinge, physiographically represented by the Fall Zone. Our results elucidate an inherent danger in using topography alone to constrain late-stage passive margin deformation mechanisms. Only through careful synthesis of field stratigraphic and geomorphic elements such as fluvial terraces, Coastal Plain deposits, and offshore stratigraphy can age control be extended from the offshore depositional setting to the erosionally dominated continent. This sudy demonstrates that despite a relatively subdued topography, the middle U.S. Atlantic margin experiences progressive flexural isostatic deformation similar to that proposed for high-relief margins characterized by great escarpments. Thus margin topographic diversity remains a function of other factors, such as lithospheric composition and/or structure, supracrustal stratigraphy and structure, degree of drainage integration, drainage divide migration and climate.

Electric system restructuring and system reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horiuchi, Catherine Miller

In 1996 the California legislature passed AB 1890, explicitly defining economic benefits and detailing specific mechanisms for initiating a partial restructuring the state's electric system. Critics have since sought re-regulation and proponents have asked for patience as the new institutions and markets take shape. Other states' electric system restructuring activities have been tempered by real and perceived problems in the California model. This study examines the reduced regulatory controls and new constraints introduced in California's limited restructuring model using utility and regulatory agency records from the 1990's to investigate effects of new institutions and practices on system reliability for the state's five largest public and private utilities. Logit and negative binomial regressions indicate negative impact from the California model of restructuring on system reliability as measured by customer interruptions. Time series analysis of outage data could not predict the wholesale power market collapse and the subsequent rolling blackouts in early 2001; inclusion of near-outage reliability disturbances---load shedding and energy emergencies---provided a measure of forewarning. Analysis of system disruptions, generation capacity and demand, and the role of purchased power challenge conventional wisdom on the causality of Californian's power problems. The quantitative analysis was supplemented by a targeted survey of electric system restructuring participants. Findings suggest each utility and the organization controlling the state's electric grid provided protection from power outages comparable to pre-restructuring operations through 2000; however, this reliability has come at an inflated cost, resulting in reduced system purchases and decreased marginal protection. The historic margin of operating safety has fully eroded, increasing mandatory load shedding and emergency declarations for voluntary and mandatory conservation. Proposed remedies focused on state-funded contracts and government-managed power authorities may not help, as the findings suggest pricing models, market uncertainty, interjurisdictional conflict and an inability to respond to market perturbations are more significant contributors to reduced regional generation availability than the particular contract mechanisms and funding sources used for power purchases.

Limited short-term prognostic utility of cerebral NIRS during neonatal therapeutic hypothermia.

PubMed

Shellhaas, Renée A; Thelen, Brian J; Bapuraj, Jayapalli R; Burns, Joseph W; Swenson, Aaron W; Christensen, Mary K; Wiggins, Stephanie A; Barks, John D E

2013-07-16

We evaluated the utility of amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) and regional oxygen saturation (rSO2) measured using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) for short-term outcome prediction in neonates with hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) treated with therapeutic hypothermia. Neonates with HIE were monitored with dual-channel aEEG, bilateral cerebral NIRS, and systemic NIRS throughout cooling and rewarming. The short-term outcome measure was a composite of neurologic examination and brain MRI scores at 7 to 10 days. Multiple regression models were developed to assess NIRS and aEEG recorded during the 6 hours before rewarming and the 6-hour rewarming period as predictors of short-term outcome. Twenty-one infants, mean gestational age 38.8 ± 1.6 weeks, median 10-minute Apgar score 4 (range 0-8), and mean initial pH 6.92 ± 0.19, were enrolled. Before rewarming, the most parsimonious model included 4 parameters (adjusted R(2) = 0.59; p = 0.006): lower values of systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.004), aEEG bandwidth variability (p = 0.019), and mean aEEG upper margin (p = 0.006), combined with higher mean aEEG bandwidth (worse discontinuity; p = 0.013), predicted worse short-term outcome. During rewarming, lower systemic rSO2 variability (p = 0.007) and depressed aEEG lower margin (p = 0.034) were associated with worse outcome (model-adjusted R(2) = 0.49; p = 0.005). Cerebral NIRS data did not contribute to either model. During day 3 of cooling and during rewarming, loss of physiologic variability (by systemic NIRS) and invariant, discontinuous aEEG patterns predict poor short-term outcome in neonates with HIE. These parameters, but not cerebral NIRS, may be useful to identify infants suitable for studies of adjuvant neuroprotective therapies or modification of the duration of cooling and/or rewarming.

Essays in energy economics: The electricity industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez-Chombo, Eduardo

Electricity demand analysis using cointegration and error-correction models with time varying parameters: The Mexican case. In this essay we show how some flexibility can be allowed in modeling the parameters of the electricity demand function by employing the time varying coefficient (TVC) cointegrating model developed by Park and Hahn (1999). With the income elasticity of electricity demand modeled as a TVC, we perform tests to examine the adequacy of the proposed model against the cointegrating regression with fixed coefficients, as well as against the spuriousness of the regression with TVC. The results reject the specification of the model with fixed coefficients and favor the proposed model. We also show how some flexibility is gained in the specification of the error correction model based on the proposed TVC cointegrating model, by including more lags of the error correction term as predetermined variables. Finally, we present the results of some out-of-sample forecast comparison among competing models. Electricity demand and supply in Mexico. In this essay we present a simplified model of the Mexican electricity transmission network. We use the model to approximate the marginal cost of supplying electricity to consumers in different locations and at different times of the year. We examine how costs and system operations will be affected by proposed investments in generation and transmission capacity given a forecast of growth in regional electricity demands. Decomposing electricity prices with jumps. In this essay we propose a model that decomposes electricity prices into two independent stochastic processes: one that represents the "normal" pattern of electricity prices and the other that captures temporary shocks, or "jumps", with non-lasting effects in the market. Each contains specific mean reverting parameters to estimate. In order to identify such components we specify a state-space model with regime switching. Using Kim's (1994) filtering algorithm we estimate the parameters of the model, the transition probabilities and the unobservable components for the mean adjusted series of New South Wales' electricity prices. Finally, bootstrap simulations were performed to estimate the expected contribution of each of the components in the overall electricity prices.

School Progress Among Children of Same-Sex Couples.

PubMed

Watkins, Caleb S

2018-06-01

This study uses logit regressions on a pooled sample of children from the 2012, 2013, and 2014 American Community Survey to perform a nationally representative analysis of school progress for a large sample of 4,430 children who reside with same-sex couples. Odds ratios from regressions that compare children between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to show significant differences in normal school progress between households across a variety of sample compositions. Likewise, marginal effects from regressions that compare children with similar family dynamics between different-sex married couples and same-sex couples fail to predict significantly higher probabilities of grade retention for children of same-sex couples. Significantly lower grade retention rates are sometimes predicted for children of same-sex couples than for different-sex married couples, but these differences are sensitive to sample exclusions and do not indicate causal benefits to same-sex parenting.

Real-time prediction and gating of respiratory motion in 3D space using extended Kalman filters and Gaussian process regression network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bukhari, W.; Hong, S.-M.

2016-03-01

The prediction as well as the gating of respiratory motion have received much attention over the last two decades for reducing the targeting error of the radiation treatment beam due to respiratory motion. In this article, we present a real-time algorithm for predicting respiratory motion in 3D space and realizing a gating function without pre-specifying a particular phase of the patient’s breathing cycle. The algorithm, named EKF-GPRN+ , first employs an extended Kalman filter (EKF) independently along each coordinate to predict the respiratory motion and then uses a Gaussian process regression network (GPRN) to correct the prediction error of the EKF in 3D space. The GPRN is a nonparametric Bayesian algorithm for modeling input-dependent correlations between the output variables in multi-output regression. Inference in GPRN is intractable and we employ variational inference with mean field approximation to compute an approximate predictive mean and predictive covariance matrix. The approximate predictive mean is used to correct the prediction error of the EKF. The trace of the approximate predictive covariance matrix is utilized to capture the uncertainty in EKF-GPRN+ prediction error and systematically identify breathing points with a higher probability of large prediction error in advance. This identification enables us to pause the treatment beam over such instances. EKF-GPRN+ implements a gating function by using simple calculations based on the trace of the predictive covariance matrix. Extensive numerical experiments are performed based on a large database of 304 respiratory motion traces to evaluate EKF-GPRN+ . The experimental results show that the EKF-GPRN+ algorithm reduces the patient-wise prediction error to 38%, 40% and 40% in root-mean-square, compared to no prediction, at lookahead lengths of 192 ms, 384 ms and 576 ms, respectively. The EKF-GPRN+ algorithm can further reduce the prediction error by employing the gating function, albeit at the cost of reduced duty cycle. The error reduction allows the clinical target volume to planning target volume (CTV-PTV) margin to be reduced, leading to decreased normal-tissue toxicity and possible dose escalation. The CTV-PTV margin is also evaluated to quantify clinical benefits of EKF-GPRN+ prediction.

Wave propagation in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with buoy and synthetic aperture radar data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Antony K.; Holt, Benjamin; Vachon, Paris W.

1991-01-01

Ocean wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover are studied for waves propagating into the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (LIMEX), conducted on the MIZ off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR imagery, ice property and wave buoy data. Wave energy attenuation rates are estimated from SAR data and the ice motion package data that were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack, and compared with a model. It is shown that the model data comparisons are quite good for the ice conditions observed during LIMEX 1987.

Implementation of a Surgeon-Level Comparative Quality Performance Review to Improve Positive Surgical Margin Rates during Radical Prostatectomy.

PubMed

Matulewicz, Richard S; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Stimson, C J; Ross, Ashley E; Chappidi, Meera; Lotan, Tamara L; Humphreys, Elizabeth; Partin, Alan W; Schaeffer, Edward M

2017-05-01

Success in the era of value-based payment will depend on the capacity of health systems to improve quality while controlling costs. Comparative quality performance review can be used to drive improvements in surgical outcomes and thereby reduce costs. We sought to determine the efficacy of a comparative quality performance review to improve a surgeon-level measure of surgical oncologic quality, that is the positive surgical margin rate at the time of radical prostatectomy. Eight surgeons who performed consecutive radical prostatectomies at a single high volume institution between January 1, 2015 and December 31, 2015 were included in analysis. Individual surgeons were provided with confidential report cards every 6 months detailing their case mix, case volume and pT2 radical prostatectomy positive surgical margin rate relative to 1) their own self-matched data, 2) the de-identified data of their colleagues and 3) institutional aggregate data during the study period. Positive surgical margin rates were compared before and after intervention. Hierarchal logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association of study period on the odds of positive surgical margins, adjusted for prostate specific antigen level and National Comprehensive Cancer Network® risk group. Overall, 1,822 (1,392 before and 430 after intervention) radical prostatectomies were performed that met study inclusion criteria. The aggregate departmental unadjusted positive surgical margin rates were 10.6% and 7.4% in the pre-intervention and post-intervention groups, respectively. After adjusting for higher risk cancer in the post-intervention group, there was a significant protective association of post-intervention status on positive margins (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43-0.97, p = 0.03). All 5 surgeons with positive surgical margin rates higher than the aggregate department rate in the pre-intervention period showed improvement after intervention. Comparative quality performance review can be implemented at the surgeon level and can promote improvement in an objective measure of surgical oncology quality. Copyright © 2017 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Marginal and internal fit of CAD-CAM-fabricated composite resin and ceramic crowns scanned by 2 intraoral cameras.

PubMed

de Paula Silveira, Alessandra C; Chaves, Sacha B; Hilgert, Leandro A; Ribeiro, Ana Paula D

2017-03-01

The precision of fit of chairside computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD-CAM) complete crowns is affected by digital impression and restorative material. The purpose of this in vitro study was to evaluate by microcomputed tomography (μCT) the marginal and internal adaptation of composite resin and ceramic complete crowns fabricated with 2 different intraoral cameras and 2 restorative materials. Ten extracted human third molars received crown preparations. For each prepared molar, 2 digital impressions were made with different intraoral cameras of the CEREC system, Bluecam and Omnicam. Four groups were formed: LB (Lava Ultimate+Bluecam), EB (Emax+Bluecam), LO (Lava Ultimate+Omnicam), and EO (Emax+Omnicam). Before measuring the precision of fit, all crowns were stabilized with a silicone material. Each unit (crown + prepared tooth) was imaged with μCT, and marginal and internal discrepancies were analyzed. For the 2D analysis, 120 measurements were made of each crown for marginal adaptation, 20 for marginal discrepancy (MD), and 20 for absolute marginal discrepancy (AMD); and for internal adaptation, 40 for axial space (AS) and 40 for occlusal space (OS). After reconstructing the 3D images, the average internal space (AIS) was calculated by dividing the total volume of the internal space by the contact surface. Data were analyzed with 2-way ANOVA and quantile regression. Regarding marginal adaptation, no significant differences were observed among groups. For internal adaptation measured in the 2D evaluation, a significant difference was observed between LO and EO for the AS variable (Mann-Whitney test; P<.008). In assessment of AIS by the 3D reconstruction, LB presented significantly lower values than the other groups (Tukey post hoc test; P<.05). Bluecam presented lower values of AIS than Omnicam, and composite resin crowns showed less discrepancy than did ceramic crowns. The marginal adaptations assessed in all groups showed values within the clinically accepted range. Moreover, the composite resin blocks associated with the Bluecam intraoral camera demonstrated the best results for AIS compared with those of the other groups. Copyright © 2016 Editorial Council for the Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Genetic divergence and signatures of natural selection in marginal populations of a keystone, long-lived conifer, Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) from Northern Ontario.

PubMed

Chhatre, Vikram E; Rajora, Om P

2014-01-01

Marginal populations are expected to provide the frontiers for adaptation, evolution and range shifts of plant species under the anticipated climate change conditions. Marginal populations are predicted to show genetic divergence from central populations due to their isolation, and divergent natural selection and genetic drift operating therein. Marginal populations are also expected to have lower genetic diversity and effective population size (Ne) and higher genetic differentiation than central populations. We tested these hypotheses using eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) as a model for keystone, long-lived widely-distributed plants. All 614 eastern white pine trees, in a complete census of two populations each of marginal old-growth, central old-growth, and central second-growth, were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci. The central populations had significantly higher allelic and genotypic diversity, latent genetic potential (LGP) and Ne than the marginal populations. However, heterozygosity and fixation index were similar between them. The marginal populations were genetically diverged from the central populations. Model testing suggested predominant north to south gene flow in the study area with curtailed gene flow to northern marginal populations. Signatures of natural selection were detected at three loci in the marginal populations; two showing divergent selection with directional change in allele frequencies, and one balancing selection. Contrary to the general belief, no significant differences were observed in genetic diversity, differentiation, LGP, and Ne between old-growth and second-growth populations. Our study provides information on the dynamics of migration, genetic drift and selection in central versus marginal populations of a keystone long-lived plant species and has broad evolutionary, conservation and adaptation significance.

Genetic Divergence and Signatures of Natural Selection in Marginal Populations of a Keystone, Long-Lived Conifer, Eastern White Pine (Pinus strobus) from Northern Ontario

PubMed Central

Chhatre, Vikram E.; Rajora, Om P.

2014-01-01

Marginal populations are expected to provide the frontiers for adaptation, evolution and range shifts of plant species under the anticipated climate change conditions. Marginal populations are predicted to show genetic divergence from central populations due to their isolation, and divergent natural selection and genetic drift operating therein. Marginal populations are also expected to have lower genetic diversity and effective population size (N e) and higher genetic differentiation than central populations. We tested these hypotheses using eastern white pine (Pinus strobus) as a model for keystone, long-lived widely-distributed plants. All 614 eastern white pine trees, in a complete census of two populations each of marginal old-growth, central old-growth, and central second-growth, were genotyped at 11 microsatellite loci. The central populations had significantly higher allelic and genotypic diversity, latent genetic potential (LGP) and N e than the marginal populations. However, heterozygosity and fixation index were similar between them. The marginal populations were genetically diverged from the central populations. Model testing suggested predominant north to south gene flow in the study area with curtailed gene flow to northern marginal populations. Signatures of natural selection were detected at three loci in the marginal populations; two showing divergent selection with directional change in allele frequencies, and one balancing selection. Contrary to the general belief, no significant differences were observed in genetic diversity, differentiation, LGP, and N e between old-growth and second-growth populations. Our study provides information on the dynamics of migration, genetic drift and selection in central versus marginal populations of a keystone long-lived plant species and has broad evolutionary, conservation and adaptation significance. PMID:24859159

Formulating the Rasch Differential Item Functioning Model under the Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Context and Its Comparison with Mantel-Haenszel Procedure in Short Test and Small Sample Conditions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Paek, Insu; Wilson, Mark

2011-01-01

This study elaborates the Rasch differential item functioning (DIF) model formulation under the marginal maximum likelihood estimation context. Also, the Rasch DIF model performance was examined and compared with the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) procedure in small sample and short test length conditions through simulations. The theoretically known…

Investigating Variations in Rifting Style Along the Southern Margin of Flemish Cap, Offshore Newfoundland: Results from the Erable Multichannel Seismic Reflection Experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welford, J.; Smith, J.; Hall, J.; Deemer, S.; Srivastava, S.; Sibuet, J.

2009-05-01

In 1992, the Erable project was undertaken by the Geological Survey of Canada and Ifremer to acquire multiple 2-D multichannel seismic reflection profiles in the Newfoundland Basin and along the margins of Flemish Cap. We present four multichannel seismic reflection profiles from the project collected over the southern margin of Flemish Cap and extending into the Newfoundland Basin. These profiles are between and sub- parallel to lines 1 and 2 from the 2000 SCREECH seismic experiment and provide more comprehensive data coverage over the region. We combine these data with the SCREECH seismic profiles, two ODP drill sites, and other geophysical data to map distinct zones of continental, transitional, and oceanic crust in this region. Just as has been evidenced from the mapped crustal boundaries on their conjugate Galicia Bank and Iberian margins, the Flemish Cap and Newfoundland margins show significant along-margin variability in terms of rifting structures and styles. This along-margin variability is superimposed on the overall asymmetry of the conjugate pairs highlighting the complexity of the margins and the importance of considering three- dimensional influences on rifting evolution. In particular, the hypothesized clockwise rotation and southeastward motion of Flemish Cap and the transfer zones that would have accommodated such movement appear to have affected the distribution of extension along the margins as rifting propagated northward. Meanwhile, activity at the North Atlantic triple junction immediately to the east of Flemish Cap may have initiated slow seafloor spreading while rifting was still active to the south as evidenced along the nearby Erable profiles. While simple two-dimensional rifting models may be appropriate for interpreting individual seismic profiles, three-dimensional rifting models are clearly needed to adequately explain the evolution of Flemish Cap and Galicia Bank relative to the margins to the south. These rifting models must incorporate the influences of microplate reorganization on both sides of the North Atlantic as well as transfer zones and the North Atlantic triple junction.

Geophysical evidence for the crustal variation and distribution of magmatism along the central coast of Mozambique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mueller, Christian Olaf; Jokat, Wilfried

2017-08-01

For our understanding of the timing and geometry of the initial Gondwana break-up, still a consistent image of the crustal composition of the conjugated margins of central Mozambique and Antarctica and the location of their continent-ocean boundaries is missing. In this regard, a main objective is the explanation for the source of the different magnetic signature of the conjugate margins. Based on a revised investigation of wide-angle seismic data along two profiles across the Mozambican margin by means of an amplitude modelling, this study presents the crustal composition across and along the continental margin of central Mozambique. Supported by 2D magnetic modelling, the results are compared to the conjugate margin in Antarctica and allow new conclusions about their joined tectonic evolution. An observed crustal diversity between the north-eastern and south-western parts of the central Mozambican margin, testifies to the complex break-up history of this area. Conspicuous is the equal spatial extent of the HVLCB along the margin of 190-215 km. The onset of oceanic crust at the central Mozambican margin is refined to chron M38n.2n (164.1 Ma). Magnetic modelling supports the presence of reversed polarized SDRs in the continent-ocean transition that were mainly emplaced between 168.5 and 166.8 Ma (M42-M40). Inferred SDRs in the Riiser-Larsen Sea might be emplaced sometime between 166.8 and 164.1 Ma (M39-M38), but got overprinted by normal polarized intrusions of a late stage of rift volcanism, causing the opposite magnetic signature of the conjugate margins. The distribution of the magmatic material along the central coast of Mozambique clearly indicates the eastern extension of the north-eastern branch of the Karoo triple rift along the entire margin. The main magmatic phase affecting this area lasted for at least 12 Myr between 169 and 157 Ma, followed by the cease of the magmatism, perhaps due to the relative southwards motion of the magmatic centre.

Detection of brain tumor margins using optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez-Chambi, Ronald M.; Kut, Carmen; Rico-Jimenez, Jesus; Campos-Delgado, Daniel U.; Quinones-Hinojosa, Alfredo; Li, Xingde; Jo, Javier

2018-02-01

In brain cancer surgery, it is critical to achieve extensive resection without compromising adjacent healthy, noncancerous regions. Various technological advances have made major contributions in imaging, including intraoperative magnetic imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT). However, these technologies have pros and cons in providing quantitative, real-time and three-dimensional (3D) continuous guidance in brain cancer detection. Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive, label-free, cost-effective technique capable of imaging tissue in three dimensions and real time. The purpose of this study is to reliably and efficiently discriminate between non-cancer and cancerinfiltrated brain regions using OCT images. To this end, a mathematical model for quantitative evaluation known as the Blind End-Member and Abundances Extraction method (BEAE). This BEAE method is a constrained optimization technique which extracts spatial information from volumetric OCT images. Using this novel method, we are able to discriminate between cancerous and non-cancerous tissues and using logistic regression as a classifier for automatic brain tumor margin detection. Using this technique, we are able to achieve excellent performance using an extensive cross-validation of the training dataset (sensitivity 92.91% and specificity 98.15%) and again using an independent, blinded validation dataset (sensitivity 92.91% and specificity 86.36%). In summary, BEAE is well-suited to differentiate brain tissue which could support the guiding surgery process for tissue resection.

Detection of brain tumor margins using optical coherence tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juarez-Chambi, Ronald M.; Kut, Carmen; Rico-Jimenez, Jesus; Campos-Delgado, Daniel U.; Quinones-Hinojosa, Alfredo; Li, Xingde; Jo, Javier

2018-02-01

In brain cancer surgery, it is critical to achieve extensive resection without compromising adjacent healthy, non-cancerous regions. Various technological advances have made major contributions in imaging, including intraoperative magnetic imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT). However, these technologies have pros and cons in providing quantitative, real-time and three-dimensional (3D) continuous guidance in brain cancer detection. Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive, label-free, cost-effective technique capable of imaging tissue in three dimensions and real time. The purpose of this study is to reliably and efficiently discriminate between non-cancer and cancer-infiltrated brain regions using OCT images. To this end, a mathematical model for quantitative evaluation known as the Blind End- Member and Abundances Extraction method (BEAE). This BEAE method is a constrained optimization technique which extracts spatial information from volumetric OCT images. Using this novel method, we are able to discriminate between cancerous and non-cancerous tissues and using logistic regression as a classifier for automatic brain tumor margin detection. Using this technique, we are able to achieve excellent performance using an extensive cross-validation of the training dataset (sensitivity 92.91% and specificity 98.15%) and again using an independent, blinded validation dataset (sensitivity 92.91% and specificity 86.36%). In summary, BEAE is well-suited to differentiate brain tissue which could support the guiding surgery process for tissue resection.

Transforming EQ-5D utilities for use in cost–value analysis of health programs.

PubMed

Nord, Erik; Johansen, Rune

2015-04-01

In a number of jurisdictions there is increasing interest in incorporating concerns for fairness in models for economic evaluation of health interventions. Cost–value analysis is a name for evaluations with such a broader aim. The most widely held concern for fairness is a concern for the worse off, i.e. the idea that severity of illness should count in determining priorities. In economic evaluations of improvements in health-related quality of life this concern may be taken into account by replacing conventional health state utilities with societal values for health states that are characterised by strong upper end compression and decreasing marginal value of utility gains. We review evidence on the strength of concerns for the worse off--measured at the cardinal level--in 15 articles published in peer-reviewed journals in the time period 1978–2010, with reports from altogether 20 individual studies in nine different countries. We report 116 individual observations of paired comparisons of utility improvements with different start levels. Concerns for severity show up quite strongly across countries, sample types and question framings. By means of regression analyses we fit a societal value function to the data that has the property of decreasing marginal value of utility gains. Using the central tendency in the data we present two plausible transformations of EQ-5D utilities into societal values that reflect concerns for the worse off.

Regularized rare variant enrichment analysis for case-control exome sequencing data.

PubMed

Larson, Nicholas B; Schaid, Daniel J

2014-02-01

Rare variants have recently garnered an immense amount of attention in genetic association analysis. However, unlike methods traditionally used for single marker analysis in GWAS, rare variant analysis often requires some method of aggregation, since single marker approaches are poorly powered for typical sequencing study sample sizes. Advancements in sequencing technologies have rendered next-generation sequencing platforms a realistic alternative to traditional genotyping arrays. Exome sequencing in particular not only provides base-level resolution of genetic coding regions, but also a natural paradigm for aggregation via genes and exons. Here, we propose the use of penalized regression in combination with variant aggregation measures to identify rare variant enrichment in exome sequencing data. In contrast to marginal gene-level testing, we simultaneously evaluate the effects of rare variants in multiple genes, focusing on gene-based least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and exon-based sparse group LASSO models. By using gene membership as a grouping variable, the sparse group LASSO can be used as a gene-centric analysis of rare variants while also providing a penalized approach toward identifying specific regions of interest. We apply extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of these approaches with respect to specificity and sensitivity, comparing these results to multiple competing marginal testing methods. Finally, we discuss our findings and outline future research. © 2013 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

A Tale of Two Cities: Access to Care and Services Among African-American Transgender Women in Oakland and San Francisco

PubMed Central

Cruz, Taylor M.; Iwamoto, Mariko; Sakata, Maria

2015-01-01

Abstract Purpose: The San Francisco Bay Area attracts people from all over the country due to the perception of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) acceptance and affirmation. African-American transgender women are severely marginalized across society and as such have many unmet health and social service needs. This study sought to quantitatively assess unmet needs among African-American transgender women with a history of sex work by comparing residents of Oakland versus San Francisco. Methods: A total of 235 African-American transgender women were recruited from San Francisco (n=112) and Oakland (n=123) through community outreach and in collaboration with AIDS service organizations. Participants were surveyed regarding basic, health, and social needs and HIV risk behaviors. Pearson Chi-squared tests and a linear regression model examined associations between city of residence and unmet needs. Results: While participants from both cities reported unmet needs, Oakland participants had a greater number of unmet needs in receiving basic assistance, mental health treatment, and health care services. Oakland participants also reported less transgender community identification but higher social support from the family. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate the enormity of African-American transgender women's needs within the Bay Area. Greater resources are needed for social service provision targeting this marginalized group of people, particularly in Oakland. PMID:26788672

Intra-patient semi-automated segmentation of the cervix-uterus in CT-images for adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luiza Bondar, M.; Hoogeman, Mischa; Schillemans, Wilco; Heijmen, Ben

2013-08-01

For online adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer, fast and accurate image segmentation is required to facilitate daily treatment adaptation. Our aim was twofold: (1) to test and compare three intra-patient automated segmentation methods for the cervix-uterus structure in CT-images and (2) to improve the segmentation accuracy by including prior knowledge on the daily bladder volume or on the daily coordinates of implanted fiducial markers. The tested methods were: shape deformation (SD) and atlas-based segmentation (ABAS) using two non-rigid registration methods: demons and a hierarchical algorithm. Tests on 102 CT-scans of 13 patients demonstrated that the segmentation accuracy significantly increased by including the bladder volume predicted with a simple 1D model based on a manually defined bladder top. Moreover, manually identified implanted fiducial markers significantly improved the accuracy of the SD method. For patients with large cervix-uterus volume regression, the use of CT-data acquired toward the end of the treatment was required to improve segmentation accuracy. Including prior knowledge, the segmentation results of SD (Dice similarity coefficient 85 ± 6%, error margin 2.2 ± 2.3 mm, average time around 1 min) and of ABAS using hierarchical non-rigid registration (Dice 82 ± 10%, error margin 3.1 ± 2.3 mm, average time around 30 s) support their use for image guided online adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer.

Intra-patient semi-automated segmentation of the cervix-uterus in CT-images for adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer.

PubMed

Bondar, M Luiza; Hoogeman, Mischa; Schillemans, Wilco; Heijmen, Ben

2013-08-07

For online adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer, fast and accurate image segmentation is required to facilitate daily treatment adaptation. Our aim was twofold: (1) to test and compare three intra-patient automated segmentation methods for the cervix-uterus structure in CT-images and (2) to improve the segmentation accuracy by including prior knowledge on the daily bladder volume or on the daily coordinates of implanted fiducial markers. The tested methods were: shape deformation (SD) and atlas-based segmentation (ABAS) using two non-rigid registration methods: demons and a hierarchical algorithm. Tests on 102 CT-scans of 13 patients demonstrated that the segmentation accuracy significantly increased by including the bladder volume predicted with a simple 1D model based on a manually defined bladder top. Moreover, manually identified implanted fiducial markers significantly improved the accuracy of the SD method. For patients with large cervix-uterus volume regression, the use of CT-data acquired toward the end of the treatment was required to improve segmentation accuracy. Including prior knowledge, the segmentation results of SD (Dice similarity coefficient 85 ± 6%, error margin 2.2 ± 2.3 mm, average time around 1 min) and of ABAS using hierarchical non-rigid registration (Dice 82 ± 10%, error margin 3.1 ± 2.3 mm, average time around 30 s) support their use for image guided online adaptive radiotherapy of cervical cancer.

Experimental measurements and numerical modeling of marginal burning in live chaparral fuel beds

Treesearch

X. Zhou; D.R. Weise; S Mahalingam

2005-01-01

An extensive experimental and numerical study was completed to analyze the marginal burning behavior of live chaparral shrub fuels that grow in the mountains of southern California. Laboratory fire spread experiments were carried out to determine the effects of wind, slope, moisture content, and fuel characteristics on marginal burning in fuel beds of common...

Development of a Model System to Evaluate Local Recurrence in Osteosarcoma and Assessment of the Effects of Bone Morphogenetic Protein-2.

PubMed

Geller, David S; Singh, Michael Y; Zhang, Wendong; Gill, Jonathan; Roth, Michael E; Kim, Mimi Y; Xie, Xianhong; Singh, Christopher K; Dorfman, Howard D; Villanueva-Siles, Esperanza; Park, Amy; Piperdi, Sajida; Gorlick, Richard

2015-07-01

It is increasingly relevant to better define what constitutes an adequate surgical margin in an effort to improve reconstructive longevity and functional outcomes following osteosarcoma surgery. In addition, nonunion remains a challenging problem in some patients following allograft reconstruction. Bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) could enhance osseous union, but has been historically avoided due to concerns that it may promote tumor recurrence. An orthotopic xenograft murine model was utilized to describe the natural temporal course of osteosarcoma growth. Tumors were treated either with surgery alone, surgery and single-agent chemotherapy, or surgery and dual-agent chemotherapy to assess the relationship between surgical margin and local recurrence. The effect of BMP-2 on local recurrence was similarly assessed. Osteosarcoma tumor growth was categorized into reproducible phases. Margins greater than 997 μm resulted in local control following surgery alone. Margins greater than 36 μm resulted in local control following surgery and single-agent chemotherapy. Margins greater than 12 μm resulted in local control following surgery and dual-agent chemotherapy. The application of exogenous BMP-2 does not confer an increased risk of local recurrence. This model reliably reproduces the clinical, radiographic, and surgical conditions encountered in human osteosarcoma. It successfully incorporates relevant chemotherapy, further paralleling the human experience. Surgical margins required to achieve local control in osteosarcoma can be reduced using single-agent chemotherapy and further decreased using dual-agent chemotherapy. The application of BMP-2 does not increase local recurrence in this model. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

[Response of forest bird communities to forest gap in winter in southwestern China].

PubMed

Zhao, Dong-Dong; Wu, Ying-Huan; Lu, Zhou; Jiang, Guang-Wei; Zhou, Fang

2013-06-01

Although forest gap ecology is an important field of study, research remains limited. By plot setting and point counted observation, the response of birds to forest gaps in winter as well as bird distribution patterns in forest gaps and intact canopies were studied in a north tropical monsoon forest of southwestern China from November 2011 to February 2012 in the Fangcheng Golden Camellia National Nature Reserve, Guangxi. The regression equation of bird species diversity to habitat factor was Y1=0.611+0.002 X13+0.043 X2+0.002 X5-0.003 X8+0.006 X10+0.008 X1 and the regression equation of bird species dominance index to habitat factor was Y3=0.533+0.001 X13+0.019 X2+0.002 X3-0.017 X4+0.002 X1. There were 45 bird species (2 orders and 13 families) recorded in the forest gap, accounting for 84.9% of all birds (n=45), with an average of 9.6 species (range: 2-22). Thirty-nine bird species (5 orders and 14 families) were recorded in non-gap areas, accounting for 73.6% of all birds (n=39), with an average of 5.3 species (range: 1-12). These results suggested that gap size, arbor average height (10 m from gap margin), arbor quantity (10 m from gap margin), shrub quantity (10 m from gap margin), herbal average coverage (1 m from gap margin) and bare land ratio were the key forest gap factors that influenced bird diversities. On the whole, bird diversity in the forest gap was greater than in the intact canopy. Spatial distributions in the forest gaps were also observed in the bird community. Most birds foraged in the "middle" and "canopy" layers in the vertical stratification. In addition, "nearly from" and "close from" contained more birds in relation to horizontal stratification. Feeding niche differentiation was suggested as the main reason for these distribution patterns.

High Resolution Mapping of Soil Properties Using Remote Sensing Variables in South-Western Burkina Faso: A Comparison of Machine Learning and Multiple Linear Regression Models

PubMed Central

Welp, Gerhard; Thiel, Michael

2017-01-01

Accurate and detailed spatial soil information is essential for environmental modelling, risk assessment and decision making. The use of Remote Sensing data as secondary sources of information in digital soil mapping has been found to be cost effective and less time consuming compared to traditional soil mapping approaches. But the potentials of Remote Sensing data in improving knowledge of local scale soil information in West Africa have not been fully explored. This study investigated the use of high spatial resolution satellite data (RapidEye and Landsat), terrain/climatic data and laboratory analysed soil samples to map the spatial distribution of six soil properties–sand, silt, clay, cation exchange capacity (CEC), soil organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen–in a 580 km2 agricultural watershed in south-western Burkina Faso. Four statistical prediction models–multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest regression (RFR), support vector machine (SVM), stochastic gradient boosting (SGB)–were tested and compared. Internal validation was conducted by cross validation while the predictions were validated against an independent set of soil samples considering the modelling area and an extrapolation area. Model performance statistics revealed that the machine learning techniques performed marginally better than the MLR, with the RFR providing in most cases the highest accuracy. The inability of MLR to handle non-linear relationships between dependent and independent variables was found to be a limitation in accurately predicting soil properties at unsampled locations. Satellite data acquired during ploughing or early crop development stages (e.g. May, June) were found to be the most important spectral predictors while elevation, temperature and precipitation came up as prominent terrain/climatic variables in predicting soil properties. The results further showed that shortwave infrared and near infrared channels of Landsat8 as well as soil specific indices of redness, coloration and saturation were prominent predictors in digital soil mapping. Considering the increased availability of freely available Remote Sensing data (e.g. Landsat, SRTM, Sentinels), soil information at local and regional scales in data poor regions such as West Africa can be improved with relatively little financial and human resources. PMID:28114334

Cell phone exposures and hearing loss in children in the Danish National Birth Cohort.

PubMed

Sudan, Madhuri; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A; Olsen, Jorn

2013-05-01

Children today are exposed to cell phones early in life, and may be the most vulnerable if exposure is harmful to health. We investigated the association between cell phone use and hearing loss in children. The Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) enrolled pregnant women between 1996 and 2002. Detailed interviews were conducted during gestation, and when the children were 6 months, 18 months and 7 years of age. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, marginal structural models (MSM) with inverse-probability weighting, and doubly robust estimation (DRE) to relate hearing loss at age 18 months to cell phone use at age 7 years, and to investigate cell phone use reported at age 7 in relation to hearing loss at age 7. Our analyses included data from 52 680 children. We observed weak associations between cell phone use and hearing loss at age 7, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals from the traditional logistic regression, MSM and DRE models being 1.21 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99, 1.46], 1.23 [95% CI 1.01, 1.49] and 1.22 [95% CI 1.00, 1.49], respectively. Our findings could have been affected by various biases and are not sufficient to conclude that cell phone exposures have an effect on hearing. This is the first large-scale epidemiologic study to investigate this potentially important association among children, and replication of these findings is needed. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Cell Phone Exposures and Hearing Loss in Children in the Danish National Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Sudan, Madhuri; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Olsen, Jorn

2013-01-01

Background Children today are exposed to cell phones early in life, and may be the most vulnerable if exposure is harmful to health. We investigated the association between cell phone use and hearing loss in children. Methods The Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) enrolled pregnant women between 1996 and 2002. Detailed interviews were conducted during gestation, and when the children were 6 months, 18 months, and 7 years of age. We used multivariable-adjusted logistic regression, marginal structural models (MSM) with inverse-probability weighting, and doubly-robust estimation (DRE) to relate hearing loss at age 18 months to cell phone use at age seven years, and to investigate cell phone use reported at age seven in relation to hearing loss at age seven. Results Our analyses included data from 52,680 children. We observed weak associations between cell phone use and hearing loss at age seven, with odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals from the traditional logistic regression, MSM, and DRE models being 1.21 [0.99–1.46], 1.23 [1.01–1.49], and 1.22 [1.00–1.49], respectively. Conclusions Our findings could have been affected by various biases and are not sufficient to conclude that cell phone exposures have an effect on hearing. This is the first large-scale epidemiologic study to investigate this potentially important association among children, and replication of these findings is needed. PMID:23574412

Estimates of the atmospheric parameters of M-type stars: a machine-learning perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarro, L. M.; Ordieres-Meré, J.; Bello-García, A.; González-Marcos, A.; Solano, E.

2018-05-01

Estimating the atmospheric parameters of M-type stars has been a difficult task due to the lack of simple diagnostics in the stellar spectra. We aim at uncovering good sets of predictive features of stellar atmospheric parameters (Teff, log (g), [M/H]) in spectra of M-type stars. We define two types of potential features (equivalent widths and integrated flux ratios) able to explain the atmospheric physical parameters. We search the space of feature sets using a genetic algorithm that evaluates solutions by their prediction performance in the framework of the BT-Settl library of stellar spectra. Thereafter, we construct eight regression models using different machine-learning techniques and compare their performances with those obtained using the classical χ2 approach and independent component analysis (ICA) coefficients. Finally, we validate the various alternatives using two sets of real spectra from the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) and Dwarf Archives collections. We find that the cross-validation errors are poor measures of the performance of regression models in the context of physical parameter prediction in M-type stars. For R ˜ 2000 spectra with signal-to-noise ratios typical of the IRTF and Dwarf Archives, feature selection with genetic algorithms or alternative techniques produces only marginal advantages with respect to representation spaces that are unconstrained in wavelength (full spectrum or ICA). We make available the atmospheric parameters for the two collections of observed spectra as online material.

Social relationships and longitudinal changes in body mass index and waist circumference: the coronary artery risk development in young adults study.

PubMed

Kershaw, Kiarri N; Hankinson, Arlene L; Liu, Kiang; Reis, Jared P; Lewis, Cora E; Loria, Catherine M; Carnethon, Mercedes R

2014-03-01

Few studies have examined longitudinal associations between close social relationships and weight change. Using data from 3,074 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study who were examined in 2000, 2005, and 2010 (at ages 33-45 years in 2000), we estimated separate logistic regression random-effects models to assess whether patterns of exposure to supportive and negative relationships were associated with 10% or greater increases in body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) and waist circumference. Linear regression random-effects modeling was used to examine associations of social relationships with mean changes in BMI and waist circumference. Participants with persistently high supportive relationships were significantly less likely to increase their BMI values and waist circumference by 10% or greater compared with those with persistently low supportive relationships after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, baseline BMI/waist circumference, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors. Persistently high negative relationships were associated with higher likelihood of 10% or greater increases in waist circumference (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 2.29) and marginally higher BMI increases (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.24) compared with participants with persistently low negative relationships. Increasingly negative relationships were associated with increases in waist circumference only. These findings suggest that supportive relationships may minimize weight gain, and that adverse relationships may contribute to weight gain, particularly via central fat accumulation.

Social Relationships and Longitudinal Changes in Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference: The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study

PubMed Central

Kershaw, Kiarri N.; Hankinson, Arlene L.; Liu, Kiang; Reis, Jared P.; Lewis, Cora E.; Loria, Catherine M.; Carnethon, Mercedes R.

2014-01-01

Few studies have examined longitudinal associations between close social relationships and weight change. Using data from 3,074 participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study who were examined in 2000, 2005, and 2010 (at ages 33–45 years in 2000), we estimated separate logistic regression random-effects models to assess whether patterns of exposure to supportive and negative relationships were associated with 10% or greater increases in body mass index (BMI) (weight (kg)/height (m)2) and waist circumference. Linear regression random-effects modeling was used to examine associations of social relationships with mean changes in BMI and waist circumference. Participants with persistently high supportive relationships were significantly less likely to increase their BMI values and waist circumference by 10% or greater compared with those with persistently low supportive relationships after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, baseline BMI/waist circumference, depressive symptoms, and health behaviors. Persistently high negative relationships were associated with higher likelihood of 10% or greater increases in waist circumference (odds ratio = 1.62, 95% confidence interval: 1.15, 2.29) and marginally higher BMI increases (odds ratio = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.00, 2.24) compared with participants with persistently low negative relationships. Increasingly negative relationships were associated with increases in waist circumference only. These findings suggest that supportive relationships may minimize weight gain, and that adverse relationships may contribute to weight gain, particularly via central fat accumulation. PMID:24389018

Estimation of the Nonlinear Random Coefficient Model when Some Random Effects Are Separable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

du Toit, Stephen H. C.; Cudeck, Robert

2009-01-01

A method is presented for marginal maximum likelihood estimation of the nonlinear random coefficient model when the response function has some linear parameters. This is done by writing the marginal distribution of the repeated measures as a conditional distribution of the response given the nonlinear random effects. The resulting distribution…

A Study of Cleft Palate Speakers with Marginal Velopharyngeal Competence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hardin, M. A.; And Others

1986-01-01

The study examined a previously hypothesized model for a subgroup of cleft palate speakers with marginal velopharyngeal competence during speech. Evaluation of 52 5- and 6-year-olds with appropriate lateral X-ray results indicated that most met fewer than three of the other five criteria required by the model. (Author/DB)

Tree-Ring Based May-July Temperature Reconstruction Since AD 1630 on the Western Loess Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Song, Huiming; Liu, Yu; Li, Qiang; Gao, Na; Ma, Yongyong; Zhang, Yanhua

2014-01-01

Tree-ring samples from Chinese Pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) collected at Mt. Shimen on the western Loess Plateau, China, were used to reconstruct the mean May–July temperature during AD 1630–2011. The regression model explained 48% of the adjusted variance in the instrumentally observed mean May–July temperature. The reconstruction revealed significant temperature variations at interannual to decadal scales. Cool periods observed in the reconstruction coincided with reduced solar activities. The reconstructed temperature matched well with two other tree-ring based temperature reconstructions conducted on the northern slope of the Qinling Mountains (on the southern margin of the Loess Plateau of China) for both annual and decadal scales. In addition, this study agreed well with several series derived from different proxies. This reconstruction improves upon the sparse network of high-resolution paleoclimatic records for the western Loess Plateau, China. PMID:24690885

seXY: a tool for sex inference from genotype arrays.

PubMed

Qian, David C; Busam, Jonathan A; Xiao, Xiangjun; O'Mara, Tracy A; Eeles, Rosalind A; Schumacher, Frederick R; Phelan, Catherine M; Amos, Christopher I

2017-02-15

Checking concordance between reported sex and genotype-inferred sex is a crucial quality control measure in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, limited insights exist regarding the true accuracy of software that infer sex from genotype array data. We present seXY, a logistic regression model trained on both X chromosome heterozygosity and Y chromosome missingness, that consistently demonstrated >99.5% sex inference accuracy in cross-validation for 889 males and 5,361 females enrolled in prostate cancer and ovarian cancer GWAS. Compared to PLINK, one of the most popular tools for sex inference in GWAS that assesses only X chromosome heterozygosity, seXY achieved marginally better male classification and 3% more accurate female classification. https://github.com/Christopher-Amos-Lab/seXY. Christopher.I.Amos@dartmouth.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

No Money, No Honey, No Church: The Deinstitutionalization of Religious Life Among the White Working Class.

PubMed

Wilcox, W Bradford; Cherlin, Andrew J; Uecker, Jeremy E; Messel, Matthew

We examine trends in religious attendance by educational group, with an emphasis on the "moderately educated:" individuals with a high-school degree but not a 4-year college degree. We conduct multivariate ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression models using data from the General Social Survey (from 1972 to 2010) and the National Survey of Family Growth (from 1982 to 2008). We find that religious attendance among moderately educated whites has declined relative to attendance among college-educated whites. Economic characteristics, current and past family characteristics, and attitudes toward premarital sex each explain part of this differential decline. Religion is becoming increasingly deinstitutionalized among whites with moderate levels of education, which suggests further social marginalization of this group. Furthermore, trends in the labor force, American family life, and attitudes appear to have salient ramifications for organized religion. Sociologists of religion need to once again attend to social stratification in religious life.

No Money, No Honey, No Church

PubMed Central

Wilcox, W. Bradford; Cherlin, Andrew J.; Uecker, Jeremy E.; Messel, Matthew

2014-01-01

Purpose We examine trends in religious attendance by educational group, with an emphasis on the “moderately educated:” individuals with a high-school degree but not a 4-year college degree. Methodology We conduct multivariate ordinary least-squares (OLS) regression models using data from the General Social Survey (from 1972 to 2010) and the National Survey of Family Growth (from 1982 to 2008). Findings We find that religious attendance among moderately educated whites has declined relative to attendance among college-educated whites. Economic characteristics, current and past family characteristics, and attitudes toward premarital sex each explain part of this differential decline. Implications Religion is becoming increasingly deinstitutionalized among whites with moderate levels of education, which suggests further social marginalization of this group. Furthermore, trends in the labor force, American family life, and attitudes appear to have salient ramifications for organized religion. Sociologists of religion need to once again attend to social stratification in religious life. PMID:25657484

Transgender Adults' Access to College Bathrooms and Housing and the Relationship to Suicidality.

PubMed

Seelman, Kristie L

2016-10-01

Transgender and gender non-conforming people frequently experience discrimination, harassment, and marginalization across college and university campuses (Bilodeau, 2007; Finger, 2010; Rankin et al., 2010; Seelman et al., 2012). The minority stress model (Meyer, 2007) posits that experiences of discrimination often negatively impact the psychological wellbeing of minority groups. However, few scholars have examined whether college institutional climate factors-such as being denied access to bathrooms or gender-appropriate campus housing-are significantly associated with detrimental psychological outcomes for transgender people. Using the National Transgender Discrimination Survey, this study analyzes whether being denied access to these spaces is associated with lifetime suicide attempts, after controlling for interpersonal victimization by students or teachers. Findings from sequential logistic regression (N = 2,316) indicate that denial of access to either space had a significant relationship to suicidality, even after controlling for interpersonal victimization. This article discusses implications for higher education professionals and researchers.

Impact of Social Integration and Living Arrangements on Korean Older Adults' Depression: A Moderation Model.

PubMed

Lee, Youjung; Jang, Kyeonghee; Lockhart, Naorah C

2018-04-01

Depression among older adults is a challenging public health concern in Korea. Using panel data from the Korea Institute for Health and Social Affairs on Korean older adults and their family caregivers, this study explores significant predictors of depression among Korean older adults as well as the moderating effect of living arrangements on the association between social integration and depression. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that preexisting depression was the most significant predictor of Korean older adults' current depression, followed by health status and family support. In addition, social integration significantly decreased Korean older adults' depression. Importantly, a significant moderation effect of living arrangements between Korean older adults' social integration and depression was observed. This study implies the development of individually tailored and culturally responsive programs to engage marginalized Korean older adults living alone, helping foster their well-being and optimal aging.

Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, José A. F.

2010-05-01

The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

The importance of structural softening for the evolution and architecture of passive margins

PubMed Central

Duretz, T.; Petri, B.; Mohn, G.; Schmalholz, S. M.; Schenker, F. L.; Müntener, O.

2016-01-01

Lithospheric extension can generate passive margins that bound oceans worldwide. Detailed geological and geophysical studies in present and fossil passive margins have highlighted the complexity of their architecture and their multi-stage deformation history. Previous modeling studies have shown the significant impact of coarse mechanical layering of the lithosphere (2 to 4 layer crust and mantle) on passive margin formation. We built upon these studies and design high-resolution (~100–300 m) thermo-mechanical numerical models that incorporate finer mechanical layering (kilometer scale) mimicking tectonically inherited heterogeneities. During lithospheric extension a variety of extensional structures arises naturally due to (1) structural softening caused by necking of mechanically strong layers and (2) the establishment of a network of weak layers across the deforming multi-layered lithosphere. We argue that structural softening in a multi-layered lithosphere is the main cause for the observed multi-stage evolution and architecture of magma-poor passive margins. PMID:27929057

The Flemish Cap - Goban Spur conjugate margins: New evidence of asymmetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerlings, J.; Louden, K. E.; Minshull, T. A.; Nedimović, M. R.

2011-12-01

The combined results of deep multichannel seismic (MCS) and refraction/wide-angle reflection seismic (R/WAR) profiles across the Flemish Cap-Goban Spur conjugate margin pair will be presented to help constrain rifting and breakup processes. Both profiles cross magnetic anomaly 34 and extend into oceanic crust, which makes it possible to observe the complete extensional history from continental rifting through the formation of initial oceanic crust. Kirchhoff poststack time and prestack time and depth migration images of the Flemish Cap MCS data are produced using a velocity model constructed from the MCS and R/WAR data. These new images show improved continuity of the Moho under the thick continental crust of Flemish Cap. The basement morphology image is sharper and reflections observed in the thin crust of the transition zone are more coherent. A basement high at the seaward-most end of the transition zone now displays clear diapiric features. To compare the two margins, the existing migrated MCS data across Goban Spur has been time-to-depth converted using the R/WAR velocity model of the margin. These reimaged seismic profiles demonstrate asymmetries in continental rifting and breakup with a complex transition to oceanic spreading: (1) During initial phases of rifting, the Flemish Cap margin displays a sharper necking profile than that of the Goban Spur margin. (2) Within the ocean-continent-transition zone, constraints from S-wave velocities on both margins indentifies previously interpreted oceanic crust as thinned continental crust offshore Flemish Cap in contrast with primarily serpentinized mantle offshore Goban Spur. (3) Continental breakup and initial seafloor spreading occur in a complex, asymmetric manner where the initial ~50 km of oceanic crust appears different on the two margins. Offshore Flemish Cap, both R/WAR and MCS results indicate a sharp boundary immediately seaward of a ridge feature, where the basement morphology becomes typical of slow seafloor spreading. There are no significant changes in either reflectivity or velocity seaward toward magnetic anomaly 34. On the Goban Spur margin in marked contrast, the basement morphology landward of magnetic anomaly 34 is shallower and has lower relief, and the velocity model indicates a diffuse change between the transitional crust and seafloor spreading. The results from these two very different conjugate margins emphasize the importance of having both types of seismic data from both conjugate margins when interpreting the geodynamic processes.

Preliminary results of layered modelling of seismic refraction data at the East Limpopo Margin, Mozambique (PAMELA project, MOZ3/5 cruise)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Watremez, Louise; Evain, Mikael; Leprêtre, Angélique; Verrier, Fanny; Aslanian, Daniel; Leroy, Sylvie; Dias, Nuno; Afilhado, Alexandra; Schnurle, Philippe; d'Acremont, Elia; de Clarens, Philippe; Castilla, Raymi; Moulin, Maryline

2017-04-01

The East Limpopo Margin is a continental margin located offshore southern Mozambique, in the Mozambique Channel. The southern Mozambique margin has not been studied much until now, but its formation is assumed to be the result of the separation of the African plate from the Antarctica plate. A new geophysical survey MOZ3/5 (February-April 2016; PAMELA project*) allowed the acquisition of seven wide-angle reflection and refraction seismic profiles across the southernmost Mozambique margin. In this work, we show the first results obtained from the layered modelling of an approximately 400 km long transect crossing the East Limpopo Margin and including information from 22 ocean-bottom seismometers and 18 land seismometers. The velocity model, compared to coincident seismic reflection data, allows to observe (1) the variations of seismic velocities together with the variations of reflectivity characteristics in the sediments, including the occurrence of some magmatism, (2) some deep features located below the acoustic basement and that can be related to the pre-to-syn-rift history of the margin, (3) the velocities and Moho depths in the different areas of the crust, from the thick continental crust to the clear oceanic crust (magnetic anomalies), helping to define the nature of the crust and the presence of magmatic features along the whole profile, and (4) some velocity information in the uppermost mantle. These results will allow us to (1) understand the deep structures of the East Limpopo Margin and to have better constraints on the formation of the margin, helping kinematic reconstructions, improving the quantification of the magmatism along this margin, and (2) improve the knowledge of both the thermal evolution of the sediments and the potential magmatic sources in the study area. *The PAMELA project (PAssive Margin Exploration Laboratories) is a scientific project led by Ifremer and TOTAL in collaboration with Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Université Rennes 1, Université Pierre and Marie Curie, CNRS and IFPEN. Moulin, M., Aslanian, D., et al 2016. PAMELA-MOZ03 cruise, RV Pourquoi pas ?, http://dx.doi.org/10.17600/16001600 Moulin, M., Evain, M., et al. 2016. PAMELA-MOZ05 cruise, RV Pourquoi pas ?, http://dx.doi.org/10.17600/16009500

A soft-contact model for computing safety margins in human prehension.

PubMed

Singh, Tarkeshwar; Ambike, Satyajit

2017-10-01

The soft human digit tip forms contact with grasped objects over a finite area and applies a moment about an axis normal to the area. These moments are important for ensuring stability during precision grasping. However, the contribution of these moments to grasp stability is rarely investigated in prehension studies. The more popular hard-contact model assumes that the digits exert a force vector but no free moment on the grasped object. Many sensorimotor studies use this model and show that humans estimate friction coefficients to scale the normal force to grasp objects stably, i.e. the smoother the surface, the tighter the grasp. The difference between the applied normal force and the minimal normal force needed to prevent slipping is called safety margin and this index is widely used as a measure of grasp planning. Here, we define and quantify safety margin using a more realistic contact model that allows digits to apply both forces and moments. Specifically, we adapt a soft-contact model from robotics and demonstrate that the safety margin thus computed is a more accurate and robust index of grasp planning than its hard-contact variant. Previously, we have used the soft-contact model to propose two indices of grasp planning that show how humans account for the shape and inertial properties of an object. A soft-contact based safety margin offers complementary insights by quantifying how humans may account for surface properties of the object and skin tissue during grasp planning and execution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Wave Climate and Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

At the same time, the PIs participate in Australian efforts of developing wave-ocean- ice coupled models for Antarctica . Specific new physics modules...Wave Mixing in the Marginal Ice Zones of Arctic Seas, Observations and Modelling Alexander V. Babanin Swinburne University of Technology, PO Box...operational forecast. Altimeter climatology and the wave models will be used to study the current and future wind/wave and ice trends. APPROACH

Hypothesis test of mediation effect in causal mediation model with high-dimensional continuous mediators.

PubMed

Huang, Yen-Tsung; Pan, Wen-Chi

2016-06-01

Causal mediation modeling has become a popular approach for studying the effect of an exposure on an outcome through a mediator. However, current methods are not applicable to the setting with a large number of mediators. We propose a testing procedure for mediation effects of high-dimensional continuous mediators. We characterize the marginal mediation effect, the multivariate component-wise mediation effects, and the L2 norm of the component-wise effects, and develop a Monte-Carlo procedure for evaluating their statistical significance. To accommodate the setting with a large number of mediators and a small sample size, we further propose a transformation model using the spectral decomposition. Under the transformation model, mediation effects can be estimated using a series of regression models with a univariate transformed mediator, and examined by our proposed testing procedure. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of our methods for continuous and dichotomous outcomes. We apply the methods to analyze genomic data investigating the effect of microRNA miR-223 on a dichotomous survival status of patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). We identify nine gene ontology sets with expression values that significantly mediate the effect of miR-223 on GBM survival. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

Colorado Basin Structure and Rifting, Argentine passive margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Autin, Julia; Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena; Loegering, Markus; Anka, Zahie; Vallejo, Eduardo; Rodriguez, Jorge; Marchal, Denis; Reichert, Christian; di Primio, Rolando

2010-05-01

The Argentine margin presents a strong segmentation with considerable strike-slip movements along the fracture zones. We focus on the volcanic segment (between the Salado and Colorado transfer zones), which is characterized by seaward dipping reflectors (SDR) all along the ocean-continent transition [e.g. Franke et al., 2006; Gladczenko et al., 1997; Hinz et al., 1999]. The segment is structured by E-W trending basins, which differs from the South African margin basins and cannot be explained by classical models of rifting. Thus the study of the relationship between the basins and the Argentine margin itself will allow the understanding of their contemporary development. Moreover the comparison of the conjugate margins suggests a particular evolution of rifting and break-up. We firstly focus on the Colorado Basin, which is thought to be the conjugate of the well studied Orange Basin [Hirsch et al., 2009] at the South African margin [e.g. Franke et al., 2006]. This work presents results of a combined approach using seismic interpretation and structural, isostatic and thermal modelling highlighting the structure of the crust. The seismic interpretation shows two rift-related discordances: one intra syn-rift and the break-up unconformity. The overlying sediments of the sag phase are less deformed (no sedimentary wedges) and accumulated before the generation of oceanic crust. The axis of the Colorado Basin trends E-W in the western part, where the deepest pre-rift series are preserved. In contrast, the basin axis turns to a NW-SE direction in its eastern part, where mainly post-rift sediments accumulated. The most distal part reaches the margin slope and opens into the oceanic basin. The general basin direction is almost orthogonal to the present-day margin trend. The most frequent hypothesis explaining this geometry is that the Colorado Basin is an aborted rift resulting from a previous RRR triple junction [e.g. Franke et al., 2002]. The structural interpretation partly supports this hypothesis and shows two main directions of faulting: margin-parallel faults (~N30°) and rift-parallel faults (~N125°). A specific distribution of the two fault sets is observed: margin-parallel faults are restrained to the most distal part of the margin. Starting with a 3D structural model of the basin fill based on seismic and well data the deeper structure of the crust beneath the Colorado Basin can be evaluate using isostatic and thermal modelling. Franke, D., et al. (2002), Deep Crustal Structure Of The Argentine Continental Margin From Seismic Wide-Angle And Multichannel Reflection Seismic Data, paper presented at AAPG Hedberg Conference "Hydrocarbon Habitat of Volcanic Rifted Passive Margins", Stavanger, Norway Franke, D., et al. (2006), Crustal structure across the Colorado Basin, offshore Argentina Geophysical Journal International 165, 850-864. Gladczenko, T. P., et al. (1997), South Atlantic volcanic margins Journal of the Geological Society, London 154, 465-470. Hinz, K., et al. (1999), The Argentine continental margin north of 48°S: sedimentary successions, volcanic activity during breakup Marine and Petroleum Geology 16(1-25). Hirsch, K. K., et al. (2009), Tectonic subsidence history and thermal evolution of the Orange Basin, Marine and Petroleum Geology, in press, doi:10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2009.1006.1009

Eradication of Borrelia burgdorferi infection in primary marginal zone B-cell lymphoma of the skin.

PubMed

Roggero, E; Zucca, E; Mainetti, C; Bertoni, F; Valsangiacomo, C; Pedrinis, E; Borisch, B; Piffaretti, J C; Cavalli, F; Isaacson, P G

2000-02-01

Primary cutaneous B-cell lymphomas have been associated with Borrelia burgdorferi, the spirochete responsible for Lyme disease. Recently, cutaneous marginal zone B-cell lymphoma has been proposed as a distinct clinical-pathological entity. We report a case of primary cutaneous marginal zone lymphoma, associated with B burgdorferi infection. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of the third complementarity determining region (CDR3) of the immunoglobulin heavy chain gene showed the presence of a monoclonal lymphoproliferation, therefore strengthening the histological diagnosis of a malignant process. B burgdorfer-specific hbb gene sequences were detected by PCR in the lymphoma tissue at diagnosis but not after antibiotic treatment. A nearly complete clinical and histological regression was observed after B burgdorferi eradication, with immunohistochemistry studies showing disappearance of plasma cell differentiation and a marked decline in the number of CD3+ T cells and Ki-67+ cells. Our case confirms the link between B burgdorferi and some cutaneous lymphomas. The disappearance of the microorganism accompanied by the unequivocal decrease of most indicators of active T- and B-cell immune response strongly supported a pathogenetic role for B burgdorferi in sustaining an antigen-driven development and growth of this cutaneous marginal zone lymphoma. Antibiotic therapy (analogous to Helicobacter pylori infection in gastric MALT lymphoma) might be helpful with the aim of averting or at least deferring the indication for more aggressive treatment.

Catch-up growth and growth deficits: Nine-year annual panel child growth for native Amazonians in Bolivia

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rebecca; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Zeng, Wu; Reyes-García, Victoria; Tanner, Susan; Leonard, William R.; Behrman, Jere R.; Godoy, Ricardo A.

2017-01-01

Background Childhood growth stunting is negatively associated with cognitive and health outcomes, claimed to be irreversible after age 2. Aim To estimate growth rates for children 2 ≤ age ≤ 7 who were stunted (sex-age standardized z-score [HAZ] <−2), marginally-stunted (−2≤ HAZ ≤ −1), or not-stunted (HAZ >−1) at baseline and tracked annually until age 11; frequency of movement among height categories; and variation in height predicted by early childhood height. Participants/methods We used a nine-year annual panel (2002–2010) from a native Amazonian society of horticulturalists-foragers (Tsimane’; n=174 girls; 179 boys at baseline) is used. We used descriptive statistics and random-effect regressions. Results We found some evidence of catch-up growth in HAZ but persistent height deficits. Children stunted at baseline improved 1 HAZ unit by age 11, and had higher annual growth rates than non-stunted children. Marginally-stunted boys had a 0.1 HAZ units higher annual growth rate than non-stunted boys. Despite some catch up, ~80% of marginally-stunted children at baseline remained marginally-stunted by age 11. The height deficit increased from age 2 to11. We found modest year-to-year movement between height categories. Conclusions The prevalence of growth faltering among the Tsimane’ has declined, but hurdles still substantially lock children into height categories. PMID:27251215

Food security status among grade 5 students in Nova Scotia, Canada and its association with health outcomes.

PubMed

Kirk, Sara F L; Kuhle, Stefan; McIsaac, Jessie-Lee D; Williams, Patty L; Rossiter, Melissa; Ohinmaa, Arto; Veugelers, Paul J

2015-11-01

Food security (FS) exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their needs. The present research sought to determine whether students from households experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity (FI) had poorer diet quality, higher body weights and poorer psychosocial outcomes than students from households classed as having high FS or marginal FI status. Population-based survey conducted in schools. Multiple regression analysis was used to explore associations between FS status (high FS; marginal, moderate, severe FI), dietary behaviours and intake, and health-related outcomes (body weight, quality of life, mood, peer relationships, externalizing problems). Nova Scotia, Canada. Grade 5 students (n 5853), aged 10-11 years, with complete information on FS status and student outcomes. In this sample, rates of household FS were 73·5% (high FS), 8·3% (marginal FI) 10·2% (moderate FI) and 7·1% (severe FI status). Students living in households experiencing moderate or severe FI had poorer diet quality, higher BMI and poorer psychosocial outcomes than students classed as having high FS or marginal FI. These findings provide important evidence for policy makers on the prevalence of FI among families in Nova Scotia with grade 5 children and its relationship with childhood nutrition, psychosocial and quality of life factors, and weight status.

The composition and structure of volcanic rifted continental margins in the North Atlantic: Further insight from shear waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eccles, Jennifer D.; White, Robert S.; Christie, Philip A. F.

2011-07-01

Imaging challenges caused by highly attenuative flood basalt sequences have resulted in the understanding of volcanic rifted continental margins lagging behind that of non-volcanic rifted and convergent margins. Massive volcanism occurred during break-up at 70% of the passive margins bordering the Atlantic Ocean, the causes and dynamics of which are still debated. This paper shows results from traveltime tomography of compressional and converted shear wave arrivals recorded on 170 four-component ocean bottom seismometers along two North Atlantic continental margin profiles. This traveltime tomography was performed using two different approaches. The first, a flexible layer-based parameterisation, enables the quality control of traveltime picks and investigation of the crustal structure. The second, with a regularised grid-based parameterisation, requires correction of converted shear wave traveltimes to effective symmetric raypaths and allows exploration of the model space via Monte Carlo analyses. The velocity models indicate high lower-crustal velocities and sharp transitions in both velocity and Vp/Vs ratios across the continent-ocean transition. The velocities are consistent with established mixing trends between felsic continental crust and high magnesium mafic rock on both margins. Interpretation of the high quality seismic reflection profile on the Faroes margin confirms that this mixing is through crustal intrusion. Converted shear wave data also provide constraints on the sub-basalt lithology on the Faroes margin, which is interpreted as a pre-break-up Mesozoic to Paleocene sedimentary system intruded by sills.

Potential for Woody Bioenergy Crops Grown on Marginal Lands in the US Midwest to Reduce Carbon Emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahajpal, R.; Hurtt, G. C.; Fisk, J. P.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Zhang, X.

2012-12-01

While cellulosic biofuels are widely considered to be a low carbon energy source for the future, a comprehensive assessment of the environmental sustainability of existing and future biofuel systems is needed to assess their utility in meeting US energy and food needs without exacerbating environmental harm. To assess the carbon emission reduction potential of cellulosic biofuels, we need to identify lands that are initially not storing large quantities of carbon in soil and vegetation but are capable of producing abundant biomass with limited management inputs, and accurately model forest production rates and associated input requirements. Here we present modeled results for carbon emission reduction potential and cellulosic ethanol production of woody bioenergy crops replacing existing native prairie vegetation grown on marginal lands in the US Midwest. Marginal lands are selected based on soil properties describing use limitation, and are extracted from the SSURGO (Soil Survey Geographic) database. Yield estimates for existing native prairie vegetation on marginal lands modeled using the process-based field-scale model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) amount to ~ 6.7±2.0 Mg ha-1. To model woody bioenergy crops, the individual-based terrestrial ecosystem model ED (Ecosystem Demography) is initialized with the soil organic carbon stocks estimated at the end of the EPIC simulation. Four woody bioenergy crops: willow, southern pine, eucalyptus and poplar are parameterized in ED. Sensitivity analysis of model parameters and drivers is conducted to explore the range of carbon emission reduction possible with variation in woody bioenergy crop types, spatial and temporal resolution. We hypothesize that growing cellulosic crops on these marginal lands can provide significant water quality, biodiversity and GHG emissions mitigation benefits, without accruing additional carbon costs from the displacement of food and feed production.

Make the most of your samples: Bayes factor estimators for high-dimensional models of sequence evolution.

PubMed

Baele, Guy; Lemey, Philippe; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2013-03-06

Accurate model comparison requires extensive computation times, especially for parameter-rich models of sequence evolution. In the Bayesian framework, model selection is typically performed through the evaluation of a Bayes factor, the ratio of two marginal likelihoods (one for each model). Recently introduced techniques to estimate (log) marginal likelihoods, such as path sampling and stepping-stone sampling, offer increased accuracy over the traditional harmonic mean estimator at an increased computational cost. Most often, each model's marginal likelihood will be estimated individually, which leads the resulting Bayes factor to suffer from errors associated with each of these independent estimation processes. We here assess the original 'model-switch' path sampling approach for direct Bayes factor estimation in phylogenetics, as well as an extension that uses more samples, to construct a direct path between two competing models, thereby eliminating the need to calculate each model's marginal likelihood independently. Further, we provide a competing Bayes factor estimator using an adaptation of the recently introduced stepping-stone sampling algorithm and set out to determine appropriate settings for accurately calculating such Bayes factors, with context-dependent evolutionary models as an example. While we show that modest efforts are required to roughly identify the increase in model fit, only drastically increased computation times ensure the accuracy needed to detect more subtle details of the evolutionary process. We show that our adaptation of stepping-stone sampling for direct Bayes factor calculation outperforms the original path sampling approach as well as an extension that exploits more samples. Our proposed approach for Bayes factor estimation also has preferable statistical properties over the use of individual marginal likelihood estimates for both models under comparison. Assuming a sigmoid function to determine the path between two competing models, we provide evidence that a single well-chosen sigmoid shape value requires less computational efforts in order to approximate the true value of the (log) Bayes factor compared to the original approach. We show that the (log) Bayes factors calculated using path sampling and stepping-stone sampling differ drastically from those estimated using either of the harmonic mean estimators, supporting earlier claims that the latter systematically overestimate the performance of high-dimensional models, which we show can lead to erroneous conclusions. Based on our results, we argue that highly accurate estimation of differences in model fit for high-dimensional models requires much more computational effort than suggested in recent studies on marginal likelihood estimation.

Multiple outer-reef tracts along the south Florida bank margin: Outlier reefs, a new windward-margin model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lidz, Barbara H.; Hine, A.C.; Shinn, Eugene A.; Kindinger, Jack G.

1991-01-01

High-resolution seismic-reflection profiles off the lower Florida Keys reveal a multiple outlier-reef tract system ~0.5 to 1.5 km sea-ward of the bank margin. The system is characterized by a massive, outer main reef tract of high (28 m) unburied relief that parallels the margin and at least two narrower, discontinuous reef tracts of lower relief between the main tract and the shallow bank-margin reefs. The outer tract is ~0.5 to 1 km wide and extends a distance of ~57 km. A single pass divides the outer tract into two main reefs. The outlier reefs developed on antecedent, low-gradient to horizontal offbank surfaces, interpreted to be Pleistocene beaches that formed terracelike features. Radiocarbon dates of a coral core from the outer tract confirm a pre-Holocene age. These multiple outlier reefs represent a new windward-margin model that presents a significant, unique mechanism for progradation of carbonate platforms during periods of sea-level fluctuation. Infilling of the back-reef terrace basins would create new terraced promontories and would extend or "step" the platform seaward for hundreds of metres. Subsequent outlier-reef development would produce laterally accumulating sequences.

The dynamics of continental breakup-related magmatism on the Norwegian volcanic margin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Breivik, A. J.; Faleide, J. I.; Mjelde, R.

2007-12-01

The Vøring margin off mid-Norway was initiated during the earliest Eocene (~54 Ma), and large volumes of magmatic rocks were emplaced during and after continental breakup. In 2003, an ocean bottom seismometer survey was acquired on the Norwegian margin to constrain continental breakup and early seafloor spreading processes. The profile P-wave model described here crosses the northern part of the Vøring Plateau. Maximum igneous crustal thickness was found to be 18 km, decreasing to ~6.5 km over ~6 M.y. after continental breakup. Both the volume and the duration of excess magmatism after breakup is about twice of what is observed off the Møre Margin south of the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone, which offsets the margin segments by ~170 km. A similar reduction in magmatism occurs to the north over an along-margin distance of ~100 km to the Lofoten margin, but without a margin offset. There is a strong correlation between magma productivity and early plate spreading rate, which are highest just after breakup, falling with time. This is seen both at the Møre and the Vøring margin segments, suggesting a common cause. A model for the breakup- related magmatism should be able to (1) explain this correlation, (2) the magma production peak at breakup, and (3) the magmatic segmentation. Proposed end-member hypotheses are elevated upper-mantle temperatures caused by a hot mantle plume, or edge-driven small-scale convection fluxing mantle rocks through the melt zone. Both the average P-wave velocity and the major-element data at the Vøring margin indicate a low degree of melting consistent with convection. However, small scale convection does not easily explain the issues listed above. An elaboration of the mantle plume model by N. Sleep, in which buoyant plume material fills the rift-topography at the base of the lithosphere, can explain these: When the continents break apart, the buoyant plume-material flows up into the rift zone, causing excess magmatism by both elevated temperature and excess flux, and magmatism dies off as this rift-restricted material is spent. The buoyancy of the plume-material also elevates the plate boundaries and enhances plate spreading forces initially. The rapid drop in magma productivity to the north correlates with the northern boundary of the wide and deep Cretaceous Vøring Basin, thus less plume material was accommodated off Lofoten. This model predicts that the magma segmentation will show little variation in the geochemical signature.

Nonlinear Pricing in Energy and Environmental Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, Koichiro

This dissertation consists of three empirical studies on nonlinear pricing in energy and environmental markets. The first investigates how consumers respond to multi-tier nonlinear price schedules for residential electricity. Chapter 2 asks a similar research question for residential water pricing. Finally, I examine the effect of nonlinear financial rewards for energy conservation by applying a regression discontinuity design to a large-scale electricity rebate program that was implemented in California. Economic theory generally assumes that consumers respond to marginal prices when making economic decisions, but this assumption may not hold for complex price schedules. The chapter "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing" provides empirical evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal price when faced with nonlinear electricity price schedules. Nonlinear price schedules, such as progressive income tax rates and multi-tier electricity prices, complicate economic decisions by creating multiple marginal prices for the same good. Evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that consumers facing such price schedules may respond to average price as a heuristic. I empirically test this prediction using field data by exploiting price variation across a spatial discontinuity in electric utility service areas. The territory border of two electric utilities lies within several city boundaries in southern California. As a result, nearly identical households experience substantially different nonlinear electricity price schedules. Using monthly household-level panel data from 1999 to 2008, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. I show that even though this sub-optimizing behavior has a minimal impact on individual welfare, it can critically alter the policy implications of nonlinear pricing. The second chapter " How Do Consumers Respond to Nonlinear Pricing? Evidence from Household Water Demand" provides similar empirical evidence in residential water markets. In this paper, I exploit variation in residential water pricing in Southern California to examine how consumers respond to nonlinear pricing. Contrary to the standard predictions for nonlinear budget sets, I find no bunching of consumers around the kink points of their nonlinear price schedule. I then explore whether consumers respond to marginal price, expected marginal price, or average price when faced with nonlinear water price schedules. The price schedule of one service area was changed from a linear price schedule to a nonlinear price schedule. This policy change lead to an increase in marginal price and expected marginal price but a decrease in average price for many consumers. Using household-level panel data, I find strong evidence that consumers respond to average price rather than marginal or expected marginal price. Estimates of the short-run price elasticity for the summer and winter months are -.127 and -.097, and estimates of the long-run price elasticity for the summer and winter months are -.203 and -.154. I conclude with "The Effect of Cash Rewards on Energy Conservation: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design" to examine the effect of an alternative form of nonlinear pricing that was developed to provide an explicit financial incentive for conservation. In the summer of 2005, California residents received a 20% discount on their summer electricity bills if they could reduce their electricity consumption by 20% relative to 2004. Nearly all households automatically participated in the program, but the eligibility rule required households to have started their electricity service by a certain cutoff date in 2004. This rule generated an essentially random assignment of the program among households that started their service right before and after the cutoff date. Using household-level monthly billing records from the three largest California electric utilities, I find evidence that the rebate incentive reduced consumption by 5% to 10% in the areas where summer temperature is persistently high and income-level is relatively low, but the estimated treatment effects are nearly zero in other areas. To save 1 kWh of electricity, the program cost 2 cents in inland areas, 91 cents in coastal areas, and 14.8 cents for all service areas.

Lithospheric thickness jumps at the S-Atlantic continental margins from satellite gravity data and modelled isostatic anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahraki, Meysam; Schmeling, Harro; Haas, Peter

2018-01-01

Isostatic equilibrium is a good approximation for passive continental margins. In these regions, geoid anomalies are proportional to the local dipole moment of density-depth distributions, which can be used to constrain the amount of oceanic to continental lithospheric thickening (lithospheric jumps). We consider a five- or three-layer 1D model for the oceanic and continental lithosphere, respectively, composed of water, a sediment layer (both for the oceanic case), the crust, the mantle lithosphere and the asthenosphere. The mantle lithosphere is defined by a mantle density, which is a function of temperature and composition, due to melt depletion. In addition, a depth-dependent sediment density associated with compaction and ocean floor variation is adopted. We analyzed satellite derived geoid data and, after filtering, extracted typical averaged profiles across the Western and Eastern passive margins of the South Atlantic. They show geoid jumps of 8.1 m and 7.0 m for the Argentinian and African sides, respectively. Together with topography data and an averaged crustal density at the conjugate margins these jumps are interpreted as isostatic geoid anomalies and yield best-fitting crustal and lithospheric thicknesses. In a grid search approach five parameters are systematically varied, namely the thicknesses of the sediment layer, the oceanic and continental crusts and the oceanic and the continental mantle lithosphere. The set of successful models reveals a clear asymmetry between the South Africa and Argentine lithospheres by 15 km. Preferred models predict a sediment layer at the Argentine margin of 3-6 km and at the South Africa margin of 1-2.5 km. Moreover, we derived a linear relationship between, oceanic lithosphere, sediment thickness and lithospheric jumps at the South Atlantic margins. It suggests that the continental lithospheres on the western and eastern South Atlantic are thicker by 45-70 and 60-80 km than the oceanic lithospheres, respectively.

Passive margin evolution, initiation of subduction and the Wilson cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloetingh, S. A. P. L.; Wortel, M. J. R.; Vlaar, N. J.

1984-10-01

We have constructed finite element models at various stages of passive margin evolution, in which we have incorporated the system of forces acting on the margin, depth-dependent rheological properties and lateral variations across the margin. We have studied the interrelations between age-dependent forces, geometry and rheology, to decipher their net effect on the state of stress at passive margins. Lithospheric flexure induced by sediment loading dominates the state of stress at passive margins. This study has shown that if after a short evolution of the margin (time span a few tens of million years) subduction has not yet started, continued aging of the passive margin alone does not result in conditions more favourable for transformation into an active margin. Although much geological evidence is available in support of the key role small ocean basins play in orogeny and ophiolite emplacement, evolutionary frameworks of the Wilson cycle usually are cast in terms of opening and closing of wide ocean basins. We propose a more limited role for large oceans in the Wilson cycle concept.

Evaluating the Potential of Marginal Land for Cellulosic Feedstock Production and Carbon Sequestration in the United States.

PubMed

Emery, Isaac; Mueller, Steffen; Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B

2017-01-03

Land availability for growing feedstocks at scale is a crucial concern for the bioenergy industry. Feedstock production on land not well-suited to growing conventional crops, or marginal land, is often promoted as ideal, although there is a poor understanding of the qualities, quantity, and distribution of marginal lands in the United States. We examine the spatial distribution of land complying with several key marginal land definitions at the United States county, agro-ecological zone, and national scales, and compare the ability of both marginal land and land cover data sets to identify regions for feedstock production. We conclude that very few land parcels comply with multiple definitions of marginal land. Furthermore, to examine possible carbon-flow implications of feedstock production on land that could be considered marginal per multiple definitions, we model soil carbon changes upon transitions from marginal cropland, grassland, and cropland-pastureland to switchgrass production for three marginal land-rich counties. Our findings suggest that total soil organic carbon changes per county are small, and generally positive, and can influence life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of switchgrass ethanol.

Continental margin sedimentation: From sediment transport to sequence stratigraphy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nittrouer, Charles A.; Austin, James A.; Field, Michael E.; Kravitz, Joseph H.; Syvitski, James P. M.; Wiberg, Patricia L.

2007-01-01

This volume on continental margin sedimentation brings together an expert editorial and contributor team to create a state-of-the-art resource. Taking a global perspective, the book spans a range of timescales and content, ranging from how oceans transport particles, to how thick rock sequences are formed on continental margins.- Summarizes and integrates our understanding of sedimentary processes and strata associated with fluvial dispersal systems on continental shelves and slopes- Explores timescales ranging from particle transport at one extreme, to deep burial at the other- Insights are presented for margins in general, and with focus on a tectonically active margin (northern California) and a passive margin (New Jersey), enabling detailed examination of the intricate relationships between a wide suite of sedimentary processes and their preserved stratigraphy- Includes observational studies which document the processes and strata found on particular margins, in addition to numerical models and laboratory experimentation, which provide a quantitative basis for extrapolation in time and space of insights about continental-margin sedimentation- Provides a research resource for scientists studying modern and ancient margins, and an educational text for advanced students in sedimentology and stratigraphy

78 FR 62787 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-22

... component of its current IRS margin model. The proposed change is reflected in an Advisory Notice issued to... offers clearing for a variety of swaps products under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures... rate swaps (``IRS''). CME proposes to make certain changes to its current IRS margin model in relation...

Nanowire NMOS Logic Inverter Characterization.

PubMed

Hashim, Yasir

2016-06-01

This study is the first to demonstrate characteristics optimization of nanowire N-Channel Metal Oxide Semiconductor (NW-MOS) logic inverter. Noise margins and inflection voltage of transfer characteristics are used as limiting factors in this optimization. A computer-based model used to produce static characteristics of NW-NMOS logic inverter. In this research two circuit configuration of NW-NMOS inverter was studied, in first NW-NMOS circuit, the noise margin for (low input-high output) condition was very low. For second NMOS circuit gives excellent noise margins, and results indicate that optimization depends on applied voltage to the inverter. Increasing gate to source voltage with (2/1) nanowires ratio results better noise margins. Increasing of applied DC load transistor voltage tends to increasing in decreasing noise margins; decreasing this voltage will improve noise margins significantly.

Perceptional gaps among women, husbands and family members about intentions for birthplace: a cross-sectional study 1

PubMed Central

Shimpuku, Yoko; Madeni, Frida Elikana; Horiuchi, Shigeko; Leshabari, Sebalda Charles

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: women are more likely to give birth at a health facility when their families agree with the birthplace. However, in rural areas of Tanzania, women are often marginalized from decision-making. This study predicted birthplace intention and identified factors to reduce perceptional gaps among pregnant women, husbands and family members. Method: explanatory cross-sectional survey was conducted in three villages in North Eastern Tanzania. Participants were 138 pregnant women and their families who answered the Birth Intention Questionnaire (BIQ), measuring knowledge, attitude, perceived behavioral control, subjective norms and intention for birthplace. Descriptive analysis, ANOVA, Chi-square, and multiple linear regression was used to analyze the data. Results: the regression model showed that knowledge, perceived behavioral control, and subjective norms predicted intention for birthplace (R2 = .28). While 81% of pregnant women thought their husbands were decision-makers for their birth, only 38% of husbands and 37% of family members agreed. Pregnant women had significantly lower scores on the item “I will prepare for childbirth with my family” compared with husbands (p < .01) and other family members (p < .001). Conclusion: providing evidence-based birth preparation and reducing the identified perceptual gaps may enhance women’s intention to deliver at health facilities. PMID:28146180

EARNINGS MANAGEMENT IN U.S. HOSPITALS.

PubMed

Dong, Gang Nathan

2016-01-01

This paper examines the hospital management practices of manipulating financial earnings within the bounds of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). We conduct regression analyses that relate earnings management to hospital characteristics to assess the economic determinants of hospital earnings management behavior. From the CMS Cost Reports we collected hospital financial data of all U.S. hospitals that request reimbursement from the federal government for treating Medicare patients, and regress discretionary accruals on hospital size, profitability, asset liquidity, operating efficiency, labor cost, and ownership. Hospitals with higher profit margin, current ratio, working capital, days of patient receivables outstanding and total wage are associated with more earnings management, whereas those with larger size and higher debt level, asset turnover, days cash on hand, fixed asset age are associated with lower level of earnings manipulation. Additionally, managers of non-profit hospitals are more likely to undertake some form of window-dressing by manipulating accounting accruals without changing business models or pricing strategies than their public hospital counterparts. We provide direct evidence of the use of discretionary accruals to manage financial earnings among U.S. hospitals and the finding has profound policy implications in terms of assessing the pervasiveness of accounting manipulation and the overall integrity of financial reporting in this very special public and quasi-public service sector.

Medical team interdependence as a determinant of use of clinical resources.

PubMed Central

Sicotte, C; Pineault, R; Lambert, J

1993-01-01

OBJECTIVE. Our objective, based on organization theory, is to examine whether interdependence among physicians leads to coordination problems that in turn may explain variations observed in the use of clinical resources. DATA SOURCES/STUDY SETTING. Secondary data about episodes of in-hospital care were collected over a 14-month period in two midsize acute care hospitals located in two suburbs of Montreal, Quebec. STUDY DESIGN. Hierarchical regression analysis was used to assess the marginal effect of medical team interdependence on clinical resource utilization after taking into account the effect attributable to the nature of several morbidities taken as specific and distinct tasks. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Medical team interdependence is found within medical specialties as well as between specialties. The largest portion of resource utilization was explained by morbidity characteristics, whereas team interdependence had a weaker, but systematic effect for all morbidities studied (15 regression models out of 18 performed). Task coordination was found to become more difficult as the number of physicians coming from different specialties increased in the context of teamwork. CONCLUSIONS. Results suggest that team practice does not entirely overcome coordination problems inherent to task (morbidity) interdependence. In considering the individual (especially the attending) physician as the main factor responsible for resource utilization, other factors related to team practice may too readily be overlooked. PMID:8270423

Statistical analysis of mixed recurrent event data with application to cancer survivor study

PubMed Central

Zhu, Liang; Tong, Xingwei; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Srivastava, Deo Kumar; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L.

2014-01-01

Event history studies occur in many fields including economics, medical studies and social science. In such studies concerning some recurrent events, two types of data have been extensively discussed in the literature. One is recurrent event data that arise if study subjects are monitored or observed continuously. In this case, the observed information provides the times of all occurrences of the recurrent events of interest. The other is panel count data, which occur if the subjects are monitored or observed only periodically. This can happen if the continuous observation is too expensive or not practical and in this case, only the numbers of occurrences of the events between subsequent observation times are available. In this paper, we discuss a third type of data, which is a mixture of recurrent event and panel count data and for which there exists little literature. For regression analysis of such data, a marginal mean model is presented and we propose an estimating equation-based approach for estimation of regression parameters. A simulation study is conducted to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed methodology and indicates that it works well for practical situations. Finally it is applied to a motivating study on childhood cancer survivors. PMID:23139023

Wave evolution in the marginal ice zone - Model predictions and comparisons with on-site and remote data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, A. K.; Holt, B.; Vachon, P. W.

1989-01-01

The ocean-wave dispersion relation and viscous attenuation by a sea ice cover were studied for waves in the marginal ice zone (MIZ). The Labrador ice margin experiment (Limex), conducted off the east coast of Newfoundland, Canada in March 1987, provided aircraft SAR, wave buoy, and ice property data. Based on the wave number spectrum from SAR data, the concurrent wave frequency spectrum from ocean buoy data, and accelerometer data on the ice during Limex '87, the dispersion relation has been derived and compared with the model. Accelerometers were deployed at the ice edge and into the ice pack. Data from the accelerometers were used to estimate wave energy attenuation rates and compared with the model. The model-data comparisons are reasonably good for the ice conditions observed during Limex' 87.

Fluorophore-conjugated antibodies for imaging and resection of GI tumors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouvet, Michael; Hoffman, Robert M.

2016-03-01

Negative surgical margins are critical to prevent recurrence in cancer surgery. This is because with current technology in many cases negative margins are impossible due the inability of the surgeon to detect the margin. Our laboratory has developed fluorophore-labeled monoclonal antibodies to aid in cancer visualization in orthotopic nude mouse models of human gastrointestinal (GI) cancer in order to achieve negative margins in fluorescence-guided surgery (FGS). The technologies described herein have the potential to change the paradigm of surgical oncology to engender significantly improved outcomes.

Photophysiological and light absorption properties of phytoplankton communities in the river-dominated margin of the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Sumit; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Gundersen, Kjell

2017-06-01

Spatial and temporal variability in photophysiological properties of phytoplankton were examined in relationship to phytoplankton community composition in the river-dominated continental margin of the northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). Observations made during five research cruises in the NGOM included phytoplankton photosynthetic and optical properties and associated environmental conditions and phytoplankton community structure. Distinct patterns of spatial and temporal variability in photophysiological parameters were found for waters dominated by different phytoplankton groups. Photophysiological properties for locations associated with dominance by a particular group of phytoplankton showed evidence of photoacclimation as reflected by differences in light absorption and pigment characteristics in relationship to different light environments. The maximum rate of photosynthesis normalized to chlorophyll (PmaxB) was significantly higher for communities dominated (>60% biomass) by cyanobacteria + prochlorophyte (cyano + prochl). The initial slope of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curve normalized to chlorophyll (αB) was not clearly related to phytoplankton community structure and no significant differences were found in PmaxB and αB between different geographic regions. In contrast, maximum quantum yield of carbon fixation in photosynthesis (Φcmax) differed significantly between regions and was higher for diatom-dominated communities. Multiple linear regression models, specific for the different phytoplankton communities, using a combination of environmental and bio-optical proxies as predictor variables showed considerable promise for estimation of the photophysiological parameters on a regional scale. Such an approach may be utilized to develop size class-specific or phytoplankton group-specific primary productivity models for the NGOM.